Multivariate spatial models of excess crash frequency at area level: case of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-10-01

Recently, areal models of crash frequency have being used in the analysis of various area-wide factors affecting road crashes. On the other hand, disease mapping methods are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the relative risk of the population at different spatial units. A natural next step is to combine these two approaches to estimate the excess crash frequency at area level as a measure of absolute crash risk. Furthermore, multivariate spatial models of crash severity are explored in order to account for both frequency and severity of crashes and control for the spatial correlation frequently found in crash data. This paper aims to extent the concept of safety performance functions to be used in areal models of crash frequency. A multivariate spatial model is used for that purpose and compared to its univariate counterpart. Full Bayes hierarchical approach is used to estimate the models of crash frequency at canton level for Costa Rica. An intrinsic multivariate conditional autoregressive model is used for modeling spatial random effects. The results show that the multivariate spatial model performs better than its univariate counterpart in terms of the penalized goodness-of-fit measure Deviance Information Criteria. Additionally, the effects of the spatial smoothing due to the multivariate spatial random effects are evident in the estimation of excess equivalent property damage only crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forcasts of Precipitation and Temperature over four River Basins in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheuerer, Michael; Hamill, Thomas M.; Whitin, Brett; He, Minxue; Henkel, Arthur

2017-04-01

Hydrological forecasts strongly rely on predictions of precipitation amounts and temperature as meteorological inputs to hydrological models. Ensemble weather predictions provide a number of different scenarios that reflect the uncertainty about these meteorological inputs, but are often biased and underdispersive, and therefore require statistical postprocessing. In hydrological applications it is crucial that spatial and temporal (i.e. between different forecast lead times) dependencies as well as dependence between the two weather variables is adequately represented by the recalibrated forecasts. We present a study with temperature and precipitation forecasts over four river basins over California that are postprocessed with a variant of the nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression method (Gneiting et al., 2005) and the censored, shifted gamma distribution approach (Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015) respectively. For modelling spatial, temporal and inter-variable dependence we propose a variant of the Schaake Shuffle (Clark et al., 2005) that uses spatio-temporal trajectories of observed temperture and precipitation as a dependence template, and chooses the historic dates in such a way that the divergence between the marginal distributions of these trajectories and the univariate forecast distributions is minimized. For the four river basins considered in our study, this new multivariate modelling technique consistently improves upon the Schaake Shuffle and yields reliable spatio-temporal forecast trajectories of temperature and precipitation that can be used to force hydrological forecast systems. References: Clark, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., Wilby, R., 2004. The Schaake Shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, pp.243-262. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A.H., Goldman, T., 2005. Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS. Monthly Weather Review, 133, pp.1098-1118. Scheuerer, M., Hamill, T.M., 2015. Statistical postprocessing of ensemble precipitation forecasts by fitting censored, shifted gamma distributions. Monthly Weather Review, 143, pp.4578-4596. Scheuerer, M., Hamill, T.M., Whitin, B., He, M., and Henkel, A., 2016: A method for preferential selection of dates in the Schaake shuffle approach to constructing spatio-temporal forecast fields of temperature and precipitation. Water Resources Research, submitted.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be demonstrated by results obtained while developing the methodology for assessing collective significance of trends in multi-site weather series. The performance of the proposed test statistics is assessed based on large number of realisations of synthetic series produced by WG assuming a given statistical structure and trend of the weather series.

Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia.

PubMed

Pérez-Flórez, Mauricio; Ocampo, Clara Beatriz; Valderrama-Ardila, Carlos; Alexander, Neal

2016-06-27

The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Walsh, J.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Concentration and Community in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, C. S.; Gregg, W. W.

2011-01-01

Climate events such as El Nino have been shown to have an effect on the biology of our ocean. Because of the lack of data, we still have very little knowledge about the spatial and temporal effect these climate events may have on biological marine systems. In this study, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) to assess the interannual variability in phytoplankton community in the Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005. In the North Central and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, changes in the Multivariate El Nino Index were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition. The model identified an increase in diatoms of approx.33 % in the equatorial Pacific in 1999 during a La Nina event. This increase in diatoms coincided with a decrease of approx.11 % in cyanobacteria concentration. The inverse relationship between cyanobacteria and diatoms concentration was significant (p<0.05) throughout the period of study. The use of a numerical model allows us to assess the impact climate variability has on key phytoplankton groups known to lead to contrasting food chain at a spatial and temporal resolution unachievable when relying solely on in-situ observations.

Spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2016-02-15

Several studies have reported the burden of climate change on extreme heat-related mortality or morbidity. However, few studies have investigated the spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat on a national scale. Daily emergency ambulance dispatch data from 2007 to 2010 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. The temporal variability in the relationship between heat and morbidity in each prefecture was estimated using Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model and adjusted for time trends. The spatial variability in the heat-morbidity relationships between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate meta-analysis. A total of 5,289,660 emergency transports were reported during the summer months (June through September) within the study period. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the minimum morbidity percentile was 1.292 (95% CI: 1.251-1.333) for all causes, 1.039 (95% CI: 0.989-1.091) for cardiovascular diseases, and 1.287 (95% CI: 1.210-1.368) for respiratory diseases. Temporal variation in the estimated effects indicated a non-linear relationship, and there were differences in the temporal variations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific morbidity. Spatial variation between prefectures was observed for all causes (Cochran Q test, p<0.001; I(2)=45.8%); however, there was no significant spatial heterogeneity for cardiovascular (Cochran Q test, p=0.054; I(2)=15.1%) and respiratory (Cochran Q test, p=0.681; I(2)=1.0%) diseases. Our nationwide study demonstrated differences in the spatial and temporal variations in the relative risk for all-cause and cause-specific emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan between 2007 and 2010. Our results suggest that public health strategies aimed at controlling heat-related morbidity should be tailored according to region-specific weather conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Visualization of the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gruchalla, Kenny; Novacheck, Joshua; Bloom, Aaron

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS), explores the operational impacts of the wide spread adoption of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) resources in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection and Quebec Interconnection (collectively, EI). In order to understand some of the economic and reliability challenges of managing hundreds of gigawatts of wind and PV generation, we developed state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NREL's high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated withmore » evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions. state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NRELs high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions.« less

Landscape Characterization and Representativeness Analysis for Understanding Sampling Network Coverage

DOE Data Explorer

Maddalena, Damian; Hoffman, Forrest; Kumar, Jitendra; Hargrove, William

2014-08-01

Sampling networks rarely conform to spatial and temporal ideals, often comprised of network sampling points which are unevenly distributed and located in less than ideal locations due to access constraints, budget limitations, or political conflict. Quantifying the global, regional, and temporal representativeness of these networks by quantifying the coverage of network infrastructure highlights the capabilities and limitations of the data collected, facilitates upscaling and downscaling for modeling purposes, and improves the planning efforts for future infrastructure investment under current conditions and future modeled scenarios. The work presented here utilizes multivariate spatiotemporal clustering analysis and representativeness analysis for quantitative landscape characterization and assessment of the Fluxnet, RAINFOR, and ForestGEO networks. Results include ecoregions that highlight patterns of bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables and quantitative representativeness maps of individual and combined networks.

A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.

2006-03-01

In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.

Temporal and spatial assessment of river surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques: a study in Can Tho City, a Mekong Delta area, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Huang, Cunrui; Rutherford, Shannon; Dwirahmadi, Febi; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Nguyen, Minh; Nguyen, Nga Huy; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Trung Hieu; Dinh, Tuan Anh Diep

2015-05-01

The present study is an evaluation of temporal/spatial variations of surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques, comprising cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA) and discriminant analysis (DA). Eleven water quality parameters were monitored at 38 different sites in Can Tho City, a Mekong Delta area of Vietnam from 2008 to 2012. Hierarchical cluster analysis grouped the 38 sampling sites into three clusters, representing mixed urban-rural areas, agricultural areas and industrial zone. FA/PCA resulted in three latent factors for the entire research location, three for cluster 1, four for cluster 2, and four for cluster 3 explaining 60, 60.2, 80.9, and 70% of the total variance in the respective water quality. The varifactors from FA indicated that the parameters responsible for water quality variations are related to erosion from disturbed land or inflow of effluent from sewage plants and industry, discharges from wastewater treatment plants and domestic wastewater, agricultural activities and industrial effluents, and contamination by sewage waste with faecal coliform bacteria through sewer and septic systems. Discriminant analysis (DA) revealed that nephelometric turbidity units (NTU), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH₃ are the discriminating parameters in space, affording 67% correct assignation in spatial analysis; pH and NO₂ are the discriminating parameters according to season, assigning approximately 60% of cases correctly. The findings suggest a possible revised sampling strategy that can reduce the number of sampling sites and the indicator parameters responsible for large variations in water quality. This study demonstrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for evaluation of temporal/spatial variations in water quality assessment and management.

Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-07-01

Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Treesearch

Michael S. Balshi; A. David McGuire; Paul Duffy; Mike Flannigan; John Walsh; Jerry Melillo

2009-01-01

We developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5o (latitude x longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was...

Joint Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperature and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations for Improved Soil Moisture Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girotto, Manuela; Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Rodell, Matthew

2017-01-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0 - 5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Joint assimilation of SMOS brightness temperature and GRACE terrestrial water storage observations for improved soil moisture estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girotto, M.; Reichle, R. H.; De Lannoy, G.; Rodell, M.

2017-12-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0-5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia

PubMed Central

Pérez-Flórez, Mauricio; Ocampo, Clara Beatriz; Valderrama-Ardila, Carlos; Alexander, Neal

2016-01-01

The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America. PMID:27355214

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus offering a way for assessing and forewarning flood disaster risk.

A multivariate time series approach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergency department.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott; Allen, Todd L; Thomas, Alun; Haug, Peter J; Welch, Shari J; Snow, Gregory L

2009-02-01

The goals of this investigation were to study the temporal relationships between the demands for key resources in the emergency department (ED) and the inpatient hospital, and to develop multivariate forecasting models. Hourly data were collected from three diverse hospitals for the year 2006. Descriptive analysis and model fitting were carried out using graphical and multivariate time series methods. Multivariate models were compared to a univariate benchmark model in terms of their ability to provide out-of-sample forecasts of ED census and the demands for diagnostic resources. Descriptive analyses revealed little temporal interaction between the demand for inpatient resources and the demand for ED resources at the facilities considered. Multivariate models provided more accurate forecasts of ED census and of the demands for diagnostic resources. Our results suggest that multivariate time series models can be used to reliably forecast ED patient census; however, forecasts of the demands for diagnostic resources were not sufficiently reliable to be useful in the clinical setting.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

Antimicrobial susceptibility of Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida, and Streptococcus suis isolates from a diagnostic veterinary laboratory and recommendations for a surveillance system

PubMed Central

Glass-Kaastra, Shiona K.; Pearl, David L.; Reid-Smith, Richard J.; McEwen, Beverly; Slavic, Durda; McEwen, Scott A.; Fairles, Jim

2014-01-01

Antimicrobial susceptibility data on Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida, and Streptococcus suis isolates from Ontario swine (January 1998 to October 2010) were acquired from a comprehensive diagnostic veterinary laboratory in Ontario, Canada. In relation to the possible development of a surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance, data were assessed for ease of management, completeness, consistency, and applicability for temporal and spatial statistical analyses. Limited farm location data precluded spatial analyses and missing demographic data limited their use as predictors within multivariable statistical models. Changes in the standard panel of antimicrobials used for susceptibility testing reduced the number of antimicrobials available for temporal analyses. Data consistency and quality could improve over time in this and similar diagnostic laboratory settings by encouraging complete reporting with sample submission and by modifying database systems to limit free-text data entry. These changes could make more statistical methods available for disease surveillance and cluster detection. PMID:24688133

Antimicrobial susceptibility of Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida, and Streptococcus suis isolates from a diagnostic veterinary laboratory and recommendations for a surveillance system.

PubMed

Glass-Kaastra, Shiona K; Pearl, David L; Reid-Smith, Richard J; McEwen, Beverly; Slavic, Durda; McEwen, Scott A; Fairles, Jim

2014-04-01

Antimicrobial susceptibility data on Escherichia coli F4, Pasteurella multocida, and Streptococcus suis isolates from Ontario swine (January 1998 to October 2010) were acquired from a comprehensive diagnostic veterinary laboratory in Ontario, Canada. In relation to the possible development of a surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance, data were assessed for ease of management, completeness, consistency, and applicability for temporal and spatial statistical analyses. Limited farm location data precluded spatial analyses and missing demographic data limited their use as predictors within multivariable statistical models. Changes in the standard panel of antimicrobials used for susceptibility testing reduced the number of antimicrobials available for temporal analyses. Data consistency and quality could improve over time in this and similar diagnostic laboratory settings by encouraging complete reporting with sample submission and by modifying database systems to limit free-text data entry. These changes could make more statistical methods available for disease surveillance and cluster detection.

A Novel approach to monitor chlorophyll-a concentration using an adaptive model from MODIS data at 250 metres spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alem, A.; Chokmani, K.; Laurion, I.; El Adlouni, S.

2013-12-01

Occurrence and extent of Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) has increased in inland water bodies around the world. The appearance of these blooms reflects the advanced state of eutrophication of several aquatic systems caused by urban, agricultural, and industrial development. Algal blooms, especially those cyanobacterial origins, are capable to produce and release toxins, threatening human and animal health, quality of drinking water, and recreational water bodies. Conventional monitoring networks, based on infrequent sampling in a few fixed monitoring stations, cannot provide the information needed as HABs are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Remote sensing represents an interesting alternative to provide the required spatial and temporal coverage. The usefulness of air-borne and satellite remote sensing data to detect HABs was demonstrated since three decades ago, and since several empirical and semi-empirical models, using satellite imagery, were developed to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration [Chl-a] as a proxy to detect bloom proliferations. However, most of those models presented several weaknesses that are generally linked to the range of [Chl-a] to be estimated. Indeed, models originally calibrated for high [Chl-a] fail to estimate low concentrations and vice versa. In this study, an adaptive model to estimate [Chl-a], spread over a wide range of concentrations, is developed for optically complex inland water bodies based on combination of water spectral response classification and three developed semi-empirical algorithms using a multivariate regression. Three distinct water types (low, medium, and high [Chl-a]) are first identified using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method performed on remote sensing reflectance over a dataset of 44 [Chl-a] samples collected from Lakes over Quebec province. Based on the water classification, a specific multivariate model to each water type is developed using the same dataset and the MODIS data at 250-m spatial resolution. By pre-clustering inland water bodies, the results were very interesting as the determination coefficients as well as the relative RMSE of the cross-validation were of 0.99, 0.98 and 0.95 and of 0.5%, 8% and 17% for high, medium, and low [Chl-a], respectively. On the other hand, the adaptive model reached a global success rate of 92% using an independent, semi-qualitative, [Chl-a] samples collected over more than twenty inland water bodies for the years 2009 and 2010 over the Quebec province.

Drought Patterns Forecasting using an Auto-Regressive Logistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Jesus, M.; Sheffield, J.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Losada, I. J.; Espejo, A.

2014-12-01

Drought is characterized by a water deficit that may manifest across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Drought may create important socio-economic consequences, many times of catastrophic dimensions. A quantifiable definition of drought is elusive because depending on its impacts, consequences and generation mechanism, different water deficit periods may be identified as a drought by virtue of some definitions but not by others. Droughts are linked to the water cycle and, although a climate change signal may not have emerged yet, they are also intimately linked to climate.In this work we develop an auto-regressive logistic model for drought prediction at different temporal scales that makes use of a spatially explicit framework. Our model allows to include covariates, continuous or categorical, to improve the performance of the auto-regressive component.Our approach makes use of dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis) and classification techniques (K-Means and maximum dissimilarity) to simplify the representation of complex climatic patterns, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), while including information on their spatial structure, i.e. considering their spatial patterns. This procedure allows us to include in the analysis multivariate representation of complex climatic phenomena, as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We also explore the impact of other climate-related variables such as sun spots. The model allows to quantify the uncertainty of the forecasts and can be easily adapted to make predictions under future climatic scenarios. The framework herein presented may be extended to other applications such as flash flood analysis, or risk assessment of natural hazards.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for predicting multiple forest variables using waveform LiDAR, hyperspectral imagery, and large inventory datasets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Cook, Bruce D.; Bradford, John B.

2013-01-01

In this paper we detail a multivariate spatial regression model that couples LiDAR, hyperspectral and forest inventory data to predict forest outcome variables at a high spatial resolution. The proposed model is used to analyze forest inventory data collected on the US Forest Service Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF), ME, USA. In addition to helping meet the regression model's assumptions, results from the PEF analysis suggest that the addition of multivariate spatial random effects improves model fit and predictive ability, compared with two commonly applied modeling approaches. This improvement results from explicitly modeling the covariation among forest outcome variables and spatial dependence among observations through the random effects. Direct application of such multivariate models to even moderately large datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. We apply a spatial dimension reduction technique to help overcome this computational hurdle without sacrificing richness in modeling.

Calibration of a Spatial-Temporal Discrimination Model from Forward, Simultaneous, and Backward Masking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J.; Beard, B. L.; Stone, Leland (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

We have been developing a simplified spatial-temporal discrimination model similar to our simplified spatial model in that masking is assumed to be a function of the local visible contrast energy. The overall spatial-temporal sensitivity of the model is calibrated to predict the detectability of targets on a uniform background. To calibrate the spatial-temporal integration functions that define local visible contrast energy, spatial-temporal masking data are required. Observer thresholds were measured (2IFC) for the detection of a 12 msec target stimulus in the presence of a 700 msec mask. Targets were 1, 3 or 9 c/deg sine wave gratings. Masks were either one of these gratings or two of them combined. The target was presented in 17 temporal positions with respect to the mask, including positions before, during and after the mask. Peak masking was found near mask onset and offset for 1 and 3 c/deg targets, while masking effects were more nearly uniform during the mask for the 9 c/deg target. As in the purely spatial case, the simplified model can not predict all the details of masking as a function of masking component spatial frequencies, but overall the prediction errors are small.

Structure-seeking multilinear methods for the analysis of fMRI data.

PubMed

Andersen, Anders H; Rayens, William S

2004-06-01

In comprehensive fMRI studies of brain function, the data structures often contain higher-order ways such as trial, task condition, subject, and group in addition to the intrinsic dimensions of time and space. While multivariate bilinear methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) have been used successfully for extracting information about spatial and temporal features in data from a single fMRI run, the need to unfold higher-order data sets into bilinear arrays has led to decompositions that are nonunique and to the loss of multiway linkages and interactions present in the data. These additional dimensions or ways can be retained in multilinear models to produce structures that are unique and which admit interpretations that are neurophysiologically meaningful. Multiway analysis of fMRI data from multiple runs of a bilateral finger-tapping paradigm was performed using the parallel factor (PARAFAC) model. A trilinear model was fitted to a data cube of dimensions voxels by time by run. Similarly, a quadrilinear model was fitted to a higher-way structure of dimensions voxels by time by trial by run. The spatial and temporal response components were extracted and validated by comparison to results from traditional SVD/PCA analyses based on scenarios of unfolding into lower-order bilinear structures.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Environmental Drivers of Benthic Flux Variation and Ecosystem Functioning in Salish Sea and Northeast Pacific Sediments.

PubMed

Belley, Rénald; Snelgrove, Paul V R; Archambault, Philippe; Juniper, S Kim

2016-01-01

The upwelling of deep waters from the oxygen minimum zone in the Northeast Pacific from the continental slope to the shelf and into the Salish Sea during spring and summer offers a unique opportunity to study ecosystem functioning in the form of benthic fluxes along natural gradients. Using the ROV ROPOS we collected sediment cores from 10 sites in May and July 2011, and September 2013 to perform shipboard incubations and flux measurements. Specifically, we measured benthic fluxes of oxygen and nutrients to evaluate potential environmental drivers of benthic flux variation and ecosystem functioning along natural gradients of temperature and bottom water dissolved oxygen concentrations. The range of temperature and dissolved oxygen encountered across our study sites allowed us to apply a suite of multivariate analyses rarely used in flux studies to identify bottom water temperature as the primary environmental driver of benthic flux variation and organic matter remineralization. Redundancy analysis revealed that bottom water characteristics (temperature and dissolved oxygen), quality of organic matter (chl a:phaeo and C:N ratios) and sediment characteristics (mean grain size and porosity) explained 51.5% of benthic flux variation. Multivariate analyses identified significant spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes, demonstrating key differences between the Northeast Pacific and Salish Sea. Moreover, Northeast Pacific slope fluxes were generally lower than shelf fluxes. Spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes in the Salish Sea were driven primarily by differences in temperature and quality of organic matter on the seafloor following phytoplankton blooms. These results demonstrate the utility of multivariate approaches in differentiating among potential drivers of seafloor ecosystem functioning, and indicate that current and future predictive models of organic matter remineralization and ecosystem functioning of soft-muddy shelf and slope seafloor habitats should consider bottom water temperature variation. Bottom temperature has important implications for estimates of seasonal and spatial benthic flux variation, benthic-pelagic coupling, and impacts of predicted ocean warming at high latitudes.

Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's present-day contribution to sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Schön, Nana; Lindgren, Finn; Bamber, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Antarctica is the world's largest fresh-water reservoir, with the potential to raise sea levels by about 60 m. An ice sheet contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) when its rate of ice discharge and/or surface melting exceeds accumulation through snowfall. Constraining the contribution of the ice sheets to present-day SLR is vital both for coastal development and planning, and climate projections. Information on various ice sheet processes is available from several remote sensing data sets, as well as in situ data such as global positioning system data. These data have differing coverage, spatial support, temporal sampling and sensing characteristics, and thus, it is advantageous to combine them all in a single framework for estimation of the SLR contribution and the assessment of processes controlling mass exchange with the ocean. In this paper, we predict the rate of height change due to salient geophysical processes in Antarctica and use these to provide estimates of SLR contribution with associated uncertainties. We employ a multivariate spatio-temporal model, approximated as a Gaussian Markov random field, to take advantage of differing spatio-temporal properties of the processes to separate the causes of the observed change. The process parameters are estimated from geophysical models, while the remaining parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme, designed to operate in a high-performance computing environment across multiple nodes. We validate our methods against a separate data set and compare the results to those from studies that invariably employ numerical model outputs directly. We conclude that it is possible, and insightful, to assess Antarctica's contribution without explicit use of numerical models. Further, the results obtained here can be used to test the geophysical numerical models for which in situ data are hard to obtain. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25937792

The Voronoi spatio-temporal data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioc, Darka

2002-04-01

Current GIS models cannot integrate the temporal dimension of spatial data easily. Indeed, current GISs do not support incremental (local) addition and deletion of spatial objects, and they can not support the temporal evolution of spatial data. Spatio-temporal facilities would be very useful in many GIS applications: harvesting and forest planning, cadastre, urban and regional planning, and emergency planning. The spatio-temporal model that can overcome these problems is based on a topological model---the Voronoi data structure. Voronoi diagrams are irregular tessellations of space, that adapt to spatial objects and therefore they are a synthesis of raster and vector spatial data models. The main advantage of the Voronoi data structure is its local and sequential map updates, which allows us to automatically record each event and performed map updates within the system. These map updates are executed through map construction commands that are composed of atomic actions (geometric algorithms for addition, deletion, and motion of spatial objects) on the dynamic Voronoi data structure. The formalization of map commands led to the development of a spatial language comprising a set of atomic operations or constructs on spatial primitives (points and lines), powerful enough to define the complex operations. This resulted in a new formal model for spatio-temporal change representation, where each update is uniquely characterized by the numbers of newly created and inactivated Voronoi regions. This is used for the extension of the model towards the hierarchical Voronoi data structure. In this model, spatio-temporal changes induced by map updates are preserved in a hierarchical data structure that combines events and corresponding changes in topology. This hierarchical Voronoi data structure has an implicit time ordering of events visible through changes in topology, and it is equivalent to an event structure that can support temporal data without precise temporal information. This formal model of spatio-temporal change representation is currently applied to retroactive map updates and visualization of map evolution. It offers new possibilities in the domains of temporal GIS, transaction processing, spatio-temporal queries, spatio-temporal analysis, map animation and map visualization.

Spatial Distribution of a Large Herbivore Community at Waterholes: An Assessment of Its Stability over Years in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Charbonnel, Anaïs; Dray, Stéphane; Madzikanda, Hillary; Fritz, Hervé

2016-01-01

The spatial structuring of populations or communities is an important driver of their functioning and their influence on ecosystems. Identifying the (in)stability of the spatial structure of populations is a first step towards understanding the underlying causes of these structures. Here we studied the relative importance of spatial vs. interannual variability in explaining the patterns of abundance of a large herbivore community (8 species) at waterholes in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe). We analyzed census data collected over 13 years using multivariate methods. Our results showed that variability in the census data was mostly explained by the spatial structure of the community, as some waterholes had consistently greater herbivore abundance than others. Some temporal variability probably linked to Park-scale migration dependent on annual rainfall was noticeable, however. Once this was accounted for, little temporal variability remained to be explained, suggesting that other factors affecting herbivore abundance over time had a negligible effect at the scale of the study. The extent of spatial and temporal variability in census data was also measured for each species. This study could help in projecting the consequences of surface water management, and more generally presents a methodological framework to simultaneously address the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal effects in driving the distribution of organisms across landscapes.

Spatial Distribution of a Large Herbivore Community at Waterholes: An Assessment of Its Stability over Years in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Charbonnel, Anaïs; Dray, Stéphane; Madzikanda, Hillary; Fritz, Hervé

2016-01-01

The spatial structuring of populations or communities is an important driver of their functioning and their influence on ecosystems. Identifying the (in)stability of the spatial structure of populations is a first step towards understanding the underlying causes of these structures. Here we studied the relative importance of spatial vs. interannual variability in explaining the patterns of abundance of a large herbivore community (8 species) at waterholes in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe). We analyzed census data collected over 13 years using multivariate methods. Our results showed that variability in the census data was mostly explained by the spatial structure of the community, as some waterholes had consistently greater herbivore abundance than others. Some temporal variability probably linked to Park-scale migration dependent on annual rainfall was noticeable, however. Once this was accounted for, little temporal variability remained to be explained, suggesting that other factors affecting herbivore abundance over time had a negligible effect at the scale of the study. The extent of spatial and temporal variability in census data was also measured for each species. This study could help in projecting the consequences of surface water management, and more generally presents a methodological framework to simultaneously address the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal effects in driving the distribution of organisms across landscapes. PMID:27074044

Analysis of Mining Terrain Deformation Characteristics with Deformation Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blachowski, Jan; Milczarek, Wojciech; Grzempowski, Piotr

2014-05-01

Mapping and prediction of mining related deformations of the earth surface is an important measure for minimising threat to surface infrastructure, human population, the environment and safety of the mining operation itself arising from underground extraction of useful minerals. The number of methods and techniques used for monitoring and analysis of mining terrain deformations is wide and increasing with the development of geographical information technologies. These include for example: terrestrial geodetic measurements, global positioning systems, remote sensing, spatial interpolation, finite element method modelling, GIS based modelling, geological modelling, empirical modelling using the Knothe theory, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic calculations and other. The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of an integrated Deformation Information System (DIS) developed in geographic information systems environment for analysis and modelling of various spatial data related to mining activity and demonstrate its applications for mapping and visualising, as well as identifying possible mining terrain deformation areas with various spatial modelling methods. The DIS concept is based on connected modules that include: the spatial database - the core of the system, the spatial data collection module formed by: terrestrial, satellite and remote sensing measurements of the ground changes, the spatial data mining module for data discovery and extraction, the geological modelling module, the spatial data modeling module with data processing algorithms for spatio-temporal analysis and mapping of mining deformations and their characteristics (e.g. deformation parameters: tilt, curvature and horizontal strain), the multivariate spatial data classification module and the visualization module allowing two-dimensional interactive and static mapping and three-dimensional visualizations of mining ground characteristics. The Systems's functionality has been presented on the case study of a coal mining region in SW Poland where it has been applied to study characteristics and map mining induced ground deformations in a city in the last two decades of underground coal extraction and in the first decade after the end of mining. The mining subsidence area and its deformation parameters (tilt and curvature) have been calculated and the latter classified and mapped according to the Polish regulations. In addition possible areas of ground deformation have been indicated based on multivariate spatial data analysis of geological and mining operation characteristics with the geographically weighted regression method.

Joint Spatio-Temporal Shared Component Model with an Application in Iran Cancer Data

PubMed

Mahaki, Behzad; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Kavousi, Amir; Schmid, Volker J

2018-06-25

Background: Among the proposals for joint disease mapping, the shared component model has become more popular. Another advance to strengthen inference of disease data is the extension of purely spatial models to include time aspect. We aim to combine the idea of multivariate shared components with spatio-temporal modelling in a joint disease mapping model and apply it for incidence rates of seven prevalent cancers in Iran which together account for approximately 50% of all cancers. Methods: In the proposed model, each component is shared by different subsets of diseases, spatial and temporal trends are considered for each component, and the relative weight of these trends for each component for each relevant disease can be estimated. Results: For esophagus and stomach cancers the Northern provinces was the area of high risk. For colorectal cancer Gilan, Semnan, Fars, Isfahan, Yazd and East-Azerbaijan were the highest risk provinces. For bladder and lung cancer, the northwest were the highest risk area. For prostate and breast cancers, Isfahan, Yazd, Fars, Tehran, Semnan, Mazandaran and Khorasane-Razavi were the highest risk part. The smoking component, shared by esophagus, stomach, bladder and lung, had more effect in Gilan, Mazandaran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgilouyeh and Boyerahmad, Ardebil and Tehran provinces, in turn. For overweight and obesity component, shared by esophagus, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers the largest effect was found for Tehran, Khorasane-Razavi, Semnan, Yazd, Isfahan, Fars, Mazandaran and Gilan, in turn. For low physical activity component, shared by colorectal and breast cancers North-Khorasan, Ardebil, Golestan, Ilam, Khorasane-Razavi and South-Khorasan had the largest effects, in turn. The smoking component is significantly more important for stomach than for esophagus, bladder and lung. The overweight and obesity had significantly more effect for colorectal than of esophagus cancer. Conclusions: The presented model is a valuable model to model geographical and temporal variation among diseases and has some interesting potential features and benefits over other joint models. Creative Commons Attribution License

Integrated GIS and multivariate statistical analysis for regional scale assessment of heavy metal soil contamination: A critical review.

PubMed

Hou, Deyi; O'Connor, David; Nathanail, Paul; Tian, Li; Ma, Yan

2017-12-01

Heavy metal soil contamination is associated with potential toxicity to humans or ecotoxicity. Scholars have increasingly used a combination of geographical information science (GIS) with geostatistical and multivariate statistical analysis techniques to examine the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils at a regional scale. A review of such studies showed that most soil sampling programs were based on grid patterns and composite sampling methodologies. Many programs intended to characterize various soil types and land use types. The most often used sampling depth intervals were 0-0.10 m, or 0-0.20 m, below surface; and the sampling densities used ranged from 0.0004 to 6.1 samples per km 2 , with a median of 0.4 samples per km 2 . The most widely used spatial interpolators were inverse distance weighted interpolation and ordinary kriging; and the most often used multivariate statistical analysis techniques were principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The review also identified several determining and correlating factors in heavy metal distribution in soils, including soil type, soil pH, soil organic matter, land use type, Fe, Al, and heavy metal concentrations. The major natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals were found to derive from lithogenic origin, roadway and transportation, atmospheric deposition, wastewater and runoff from industrial and mining facilities, fertilizer application, livestock manure, and sewage sludge. This review argues that the full potential of integrated GIS and multivariate statistical analysis for assessing heavy metal distribution in soils on a regional scale has not yet been fully realized. It is proposed that future research be conducted to map multivariate results in GIS to pinpoint specific anthropogenic sources, to analyze temporal trends in addition to spatial patterns, to optimize modeling parameters, and to expand the use of different multivariate analysis tools beyond principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earliest evidence for the structure of Homo sapiens populations in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scerri, Eleanor M. L.; Drake, Nick A.; Jennings, Richard; Groucutt, Huw S.

2014-10-01

Understanding the structure and variation of Homo sapiens populations in Africa is critical for interpreting multiproxy evidence of their subsequent dispersals into Eurasia. However, there is no consensus on early H. sapiens demographic structure, or its effects on intra-African dispersals. Here, we show how a patchwork of ecological corridors and bottlenecks triggered a successive budding of populations across the Sahara. Using a temporally and spatially explicit palaeoenvironmental model, we found that the Sahara was not uniformly ameliorated between ∼130 and 75 thousand years ago (ka), as has been stated. Model integration with multivariate analyses of corresponding stone tools then revealed several spatially defined technological clusters which correlated with distinct palaeobiomes. Similarities between technological clusters were such that they decreased with distance except where connected by palaeohydrological networks. These results indicate that populations at the Eurasian gateway were strongly structured, which has implications for refining the demographic parameters of dispersals out of Africa.

Spatial patterns of brain atrophy in MCI patients, identified via high-dimensional pattern classification, predict subsequent cognitive decline

PubMed Central

Fan, Yong; Batmanghelich, Nematollah; Clark, Chris M.; Davatzikos, Christos

2010-01-01

Spatial patterns of brain atrophy in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) were measured via methods of computational neuroanatomy. These patterns were spatially complex and involved many brain regions. In addition to the hippocampus and the medial temporal lobe gray matter, a number of other regions displayed significant atrophy, including orbitofrontal and medial-prefrontal grey matter, cingulate (mainly posterior), insula, uncus, and temporal lobe white matter. Approximately 2/3 of the MCI group presented patterns of atrophy that overlapped with AD, whereas the remaining 1/3 overlapped with cognitively normal individuals, thereby indicating that some, but not all, MCI patients have significant and extensive brain atrophy in this cohort of MCI patients. Importantly, the group with AD-like patterns presented much higher rate of MMSE decline in follow-up visits; conversely, pattern classification provided relatively high classification accuracy (87%) of the individuals that presented relatively higher MMSE decline within a year from baseline. High-dimensional pattern classification, a nonlinear multivariate analysis, provided measures of structural abnormality that can potentially be useful for individual patient classification, as well as for predicting progression and examining multivariate relationships in group analyses. PMID:18053747

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

Perception of differences in naturalistic dynamic scenes, and a V1-based model.

PubMed

To, Michelle P S; Gilchrist, Iain D; Tolhurst, David J

2015-01-16

We investigate whether a computational model of V1 can predict how observers rate perceptual differences between paired movie clips of natural scenes. Observers viewed 198 pairs of movies clips, rating how different the two clips appeared to them on a magnitude scale. Sixty-six of the movie pairs were naturalistic and those remaining were low-pass or high-pass spatially filtered versions of those originals. We examined three ways of comparing a movie pair. The Spatial Model compared corresponding frames between each movie pairwise, combining those differences using Minkowski summation. The Temporal Model compared successive frames within each movie, summed those differences for each movie, and then compared the overall differences between the paired movies. The Ordered-Temporal Model combined elements from both models, and yielded the single strongest predictions of observers' ratings. We modeled naturalistic sustained and transient impulse functions and compared frames directly with no temporal filtering. Overall, modeling naturalistic temporal filtering improved the models' performance; in particular, the predictions of the ratings for low-pass spatially filtered movies were much improved by employing a transient impulse function. The correlations between model predictions and observers' ratings rose from 0.507 without temporal filtering to 0.759 (p = 0.01%) when realistic impulses were included. The sustained impulse function and the Spatial Model carried more weight in ratings for normal and high-pass movies, whereas the transient impulse function with the Ordered-Temporal Model was most important for spatially low-pass movies. This is consistent with models in which high spatial frequency channels with sustained responses primarily code for spatial details in movies, while low spatial frequency channels with transient responses code for dynamic events. © 2015 ARVO.

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007-2014.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Xiao, Xiangming; Zhang, Yao; Doughty, Russell; Chen, Bangqian; Zhao, Bin

2018-10-15

Accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) is important for the global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatial-temporal dynamics of GPP. However, the accuracy assessment of GPP simulations from LUE models at both spatial and temporal scales remains a challenge. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007-2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images with 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPP VPM ) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPP VPM and SIF data over a single year (2010) and multiple years (2007-2014) in most areas of China. GPP VPM is also significantly positive correlated with GOME-2 SIF (R 2  > 0.43) spatially for seasonal scales. However, poor consistency was detected between GPP VPM and SIF data at yearly scale. GPP dynamic trends have high spatial-temporal variation in China during 2007-2014. Temperature, leaf area index (LAI), and precipitation are the most important factors influence GPP VPM in the regions of East Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loss Plateau, and Southwestern China, respectively. The results of this study indicate that GPP VPM is temporally and spatially in line with GOME-2 SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential for evaluating LUE-based GPP models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic recruitment of resting state sub-networks

PubMed Central

O'Neill, George C.; Bauer, Markus; Woolrich, Mark W.; Morris, Peter G.; Barnes, Gareth R.; Brookes, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Resting state networks (RSNs) are of fundamental importance in human systems neuroscience with evidence suggesting that they are integral to healthy brain function and perturbed in pathology. Despite rapid progress in this area, the temporal dynamics governing the functional connectivities that underlie RSN structure remain poorly understood. Here, we present a framework to help further our understanding of RSN dynamics. We describe a methodology which exploits the direct nature and high temporal resolution of magnetoencephalography (MEG). This technique, which builds on previous work, extends from solving fundamental confounds in MEG (source leakage) to multivariate modelling of transient connectivity. The resulting processing pipeline facilitates direct (electrophysiological) measurement of dynamic functional networks. Our results show that, when functional connectivity is assessed in small time windows, the canonical sensorimotor network can be decomposed into a number of transiently synchronising sub-networks, recruitment of which depends on current mental state. These rapidly changing sub-networks are spatially focal with, for example, bilateral primary sensory and motor areas resolved into two separate sub-networks. The likely interpretation is that the larger canonical sensorimotor network most often seen in neuroimaging studies reflects only a temporal aggregate of these transient sub-networks. Our approach opens new frontiers to study RSN dynamics, showing that MEG is capable of revealing the spatial, temporal and spectral signature of the human connectome in health and disease. PMID:25899137

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, J.; Xiao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, B.; Zhao, B.

2017-12-01

Great significance exists in accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) because of its important role in global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatially time-sires GPP. However, the estimation of the accuracy of GPP simulations from LUE at both spatial and temporal scales is still a challenging work. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007-2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images of 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPPVPM) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPPVPM and SIF data over both single year (2010) and multiple years (2007-2014) in China. Annual GPPVPM is significantly positive correlated with SIF (R2>0.43) spatially for all years during 2007-2014 and all seasons in 2010 (R2>0.37). GPP dynamic trends is high spatial-temporal heterogeneous in China during 2007-2014. The results of this study indicate that GPPVPM is temporally and spatially in line with SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential in validating and parameterizing GPP estimation of LUE-based models.

Topologically Consistent Models for Efficient Big Geo-Spatio Data Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, M. W.; Bradley, P. E.; Doori, M. Al; Breunig, M.

2017-10-01

Geo-spatio-temporal topology models are likely to become a key concept to check the consistency of 3D (spatial space) and 4D (spatial + temporal space) models for emerging GIS applications such as subsurface reservoir modelling or the simulation of energy and water supply of mega or smart cities. Furthermore, the data management for complex models consisting of big geo-spatial data is a challenge for GIS and geo-database research. General challenges, concepts, and techniques of big geo-spatial data management are presented. In this paper we introduce a sound mathematical approach for a topologically consistent geo-spatio-temporal model based on the concept of the incidence graph. We redesign DB4GeO, our service-based geo-spatio-temporal database architecture, on the way to the parallel management of massive geo-spatial data. Approaches for a new geo-spatio-temporal and object model of DB4GeO meeting the requirements of big geo-spatial data are discussed in detail. Finally, a conclusion and outlook on our future research are given on the way to support the processing of geo-analytics and -simulations in a parallel and distributed system environment.

Generating daily high spatial land surface temperatures by combining ASTER and MODIS land surface temperature products for environmental process monitoring.

PubMed

Wu, Mingquan; Li, Hua; Huang, Wenjiang; Niu, Zheng; Wang, Changyao

2015-08-01

There is a shortage of daily high spatial land surface temperature (LST) data for use in high spatial and temporal resolution environmental process monitoring. To address this shortage, this work used the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM), Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), and the Spatial and Temporal Data Fusion Approach (STDFA) to estimate high spatial and temporal resolution LST by combining Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. The actual ASTER LST products were used to evaluate the precision of the combined LST images using the correlation analysis method. This method was tested and validated in study areas located in Gansu Province, China. The results show that all the models can generate daily synthetic LST image with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.92 between the synthetic image and the actual ASTER LST observations. The ESTARFM has the best performance, followed by the STDFA and the STARFM. Those models had better performance in desert areas than in cropland. The STDFA had better noise immunity than the other two models.

Local Spatial and Temporal Processes of Influenza in Pennsylvania, USA: 2003–2009

PubMed Central

Stark, James H.; Sharma, Ravi; Ostroff, Stephen; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Ermentrout, Bard; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Background Influenza is a contagious respiratory disease responsible for annual seasonal epidemics in temperate climates. An understanding of how influenza spreads geographically and temporally within regions could result in improved public health prevention programs. The purpose of this study was to summarize the spatial and temporal spread of influenza using data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Health's influenza surveillance system. Methodology and Findings We evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Pennsylvania, United States from six influenza seasons (2003–2009). Using a test of spatial autocorrelation, local clusters of elevated risk were identified in the South Central region of the state. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that lower monthly precipitation levels during the influenza season (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.94), fewer residents over age 64 (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.73) and fewer residents with more than a high school education (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.95) were significantly associated with membership in this cluster. In addition, time series analysis revealed a temporal lag in the peak timing of the influenza B epidemic compared to the influenza A epidemic. Conclusions These findings illustrate a distinct spatial cluster of cases in the South Central region of Pennsylvania. Further examination of the regional transmission dynamics within these clusters may be useful in planning public health influenza prevention programs. PMID:22470544

A multivariate spatial mixture model for areal data: examining regional differences in standardized test scores

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2013-01-01

Summary Researchers in the health and social sciences often wish to examine joint spatial patterns for two or more related outcomes. Examples include infant birth weight and gestational length, psychosocial and behavioral indices, and educational test scores from different cognitive domains. We propose a multivariate spatial mixture model for the joint analysis of continuous individual-level outcomes that are referenced to areal units. The responses are modeled as a finite mixture of multivariate normals, which accommodates a wide range of marginal response distributions and allows investigators to examine covariate effects within subpopulations of interest. The model has a hierarchical structure built at the individual level (i.e., individuals are nested within areal units), and thus incorporates both individual- and areal-level predictors as well as spatial random effects for each mixture component. Conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors on the random effects provide spatial smoothing and allow the shape of the multivariate distribution to vary flexibly across geographic regions. We adopt a Bayesian modeling approach and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo model fitting algorithm that relies primarily on closed-form full conditionals. We use the model to explore geographic patterns in end-of-grade math and reading test scores among school-age children in North Carolina. PMID:26401059

An Efficient Pattern Mining Approach for Event Detection in Multivariate Temporal Data

PubMed Central

Batal, Iyad; Cooper, Gregory; Fradkin, Dmitriy; Harrison, James; Moerchen, Fabian; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-01-01

This work proposes a pattern mining approach to learn event detection models from complex multivariate temporal data, such as electronic health records. We present Recent Temporal Pattern mining, a novel approach for efficiently finding predictive patterns for event detection problems. This approach first converts the time series data into time-interval sequences of temporal abstractions. It then constructs more complex time-interval patterns backward in time using temporal operators. We also present the Minimal Predictive Recent Temporal Patterns framework for selecting a small set of predictive and non-spurious patterns. We apply our methods for predicting adverse medical events in real-world clinical data. The results demonstrate the benefits of our methods in learning accurate event detection models, which is a key step for developing intelligent patient monitoring and decision support systems. PMID:26752800

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

2017-01-01

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Modeling space-time correlations of velocity fluctuations in wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukassen, Laura J.; Stevens, Richard J. A. M.; Meneveau, Charles; Wilczek, Michael

2018-07-01

An analytical model for the streamwise velocity space-time correlations in turbulent flows is derived and applied to the special case of velocity fluctuations in large wind farms. The model is based on the Kraichnan-Tennekes random sweeping hypothesis, capturing the decorrelation in time while including a mean wind velocity in the streamwise direction. In the resulting model, the streamwise velocity space-time correlation is expressed as a convolution of the pure space correlation with an analytical temporal decorrelation kernel. Hence, the spatio-temporal structure of velocity fluctuations in wind farms can be derived from the spatial correlations only. We then explore the applicability of the model to predict spatio-temporal correlations in turbulent flows in wind farms. Comparisons of the model with data from a large eddy simulation of flow in a large, spatially periodic wind farm are performed, where needed model parameters such as spatial and temporal integral scales and spatial correlations are determined from the large eddy simulation. Good agreement is obtained between the model and large eddy simulation data showing that spatial data may be used to model the full temporal structure of fluctuations in wind farms.

Univariate and multivariate spatial models of health facility utilisation for childhood fevers in an area on the coast of Kenya.

PubMed

Ouma, Paul O; Agutu, Nathan O; Snow, Robert W; Noor, Abdisalan M

2017-09-18

Precise quantification of health service utilisation is important for the estimation of disease burden and allocation of health resources. Current approaches to mapping health facility utilisation rely on spatial accessibility alone as the predictor. However, other spatially varying social, demographic and economic factors may affect the use of health services. The exclusion of these factors can lead to the inaccurate estimation of health facility utilisation. Here, we compare the accuracy of a univariate spatial model, developed only from estimated travel time, to a multivariate model that also includes relevant social, demographic and economic factors. A theoretical surface of travel time to the nearest public health facility was developed. These were assigned to each child reported to have had fever in the Kenya demographic and health survey of 2014 (KDHS 2014). The relationship of child treatment seeking for fever with travel time, household and individual factors from the KDHS2014 were determined using multilevel mixed modelling. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and likelihood ratio test (LRT) tests were carried out to measure how selected factors improve parsimony and goodness of fit of the time model. Using the mixed model, a univariate spatial model of health facility utilisation was fitted using travel time as the predictor. The mixed model was also used to compute a multivariate spatial model of utilisation, using travel time and modelled surfaces of selected household and individual factors as predictors. The univariate and multivariate spatial models were then compared using the receiver operating area under the curve (AUC) and a percent correct prediction (PCP) test. The best fitting multivariate model had travel time, household wealth index and number of children in household as the predictors. These factors reduced BIC of the time model from 4008 to 2959, a change which was confirmed by the LRT test. Although there was a high correlation of the two modelled probability surfaces (Adj R 2  = 88%), the multivariate model had better AUC compared to the univariate model; 0.83 versus 0.73 and PCP 0.61 versus 0.45 values. Our study shows that a model that uses travel time, as well as household and individual-level socio-demographic factors, results in a more accurate estimation of use of health facilities for the treatment of childhood fever, compared to one that relies on only travel time.

An implicit spatial and high-order temporal finite difference scheme for 2D acoustic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Enjiang; Liu, Yang

2018-01-01

The finite difference (FD) method exhibits great superiority over other numerical methods due to its easy implementation and small computational requirement. We propose an effective FD method, characterised by implicit spatial and high-order temporal schemes, to reduce both the temporal and spatial dispersions simultaneously. For the temporal derivative, apart from the conventional second-order FD approximation, a special rhombus FD scheme is included to reach high-order accuracy in time. Compared with the Lax-Wendroff FD scheme, this scheme can achieve nearly the same temporal accuracy but requires less floating-point operation times and thus less computational cost when the same operator length is adopted. For the spatial derivatives, we adopt the implicit FD scheme to improve the spatial accuracy. Apart from the existing Taylor series expansion-based FD coefficients, we derive the least square optimisation based implicit spatial FD coefficients. Dispersion analysis and modelling examples demonstrate that, our proposed method can effectively decrease both the temporal and spatial dispersions, thus can provide more accurate wavefields.

Detecting changes resulting from human pressure in a naturally quick-changing and heterogeneous environment: Spatial and temporal scales of variability in coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Ruzafa, A.; Marcos, C.; Pérez-Ruzafa, I. M.; Barcala, E.; Hegazi, M. I.; Quispe, J.

2007-10-01

To detect changes in ecosystems due to human impact, experimental designs must include replicates at the appropriate scale to avoid pseudoreplication. Although coastal lagoons, with their highly variable environmental factors and biological assemblages, are relatively well-studied systems, very little is known about their natural scales of variation. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal scales of variability in the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) using structured hierarchical sampling designs, mixed and permutational multi-variate analyses of variance, and ordination multi-variate analyses applied to hydrographical parameters, nutrients, chlorophyll a and ichthyoplankton in the water column, and to macrophyte and fish benthic assemblages. Lagoon processes in the Mar Menor show heterogeneous patterns at different temporal and spatial scales. The water column characteristics (including nutrient concentration) showed small-scale spatio-temporal variability, from 10 0 to 10 1 km and from fortnightly to seasonally. Biological features (chlorophyll a concentration and ichthyoplankton assemblage descriptors) showed monthly changes and spatial patterns at the scale of 10 0 (chlorophyll a) - 10 1 km (ichthyoplankton). Benthic assemblages (macrophytes and fishes) showed significant differences between types of substrates in the same locality and between localities, according to horizontal gradients related with confinement in the lagoon, at the scale of 10 0-10 1 km. The vertical zonation of macrophyte assemblages (at scales of 10 1-10 2 cm) overlaps changes in substrata and horizontal gradients. Seasonal patterns in vegetation biomass were not significant, but the significant interaction between Locality and Season indicated that the seasons of maximum and minimum biomass depend on local environmental conditions. Benthic fish assemblages showed no significant patterns at the monthly scale but did show seasonal patterns.

A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013–2014

PubMed Central

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

2015-01-01

This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

Groundwater quality assessment of urban Bengaluru using multivariate statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulgundi, Mohammad Shahid; Shetty, Amba

2018-03-01

Groundwater quality deterioration due to anthropogenic activities has become a subject of prime concern. The objective of the study was to assess the spatial and temporal variations in groundwater quality and to identify the sources in the western half of the Bengaluru city using multivariate statistical techniques. Water quality index rating was calculated for pre and post monsoon seasons to quantify overall water quality for human consumption. The post-monsoon samples show signs of poor quality in drinking purpose compared to pre-monsoon. Cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant analysis (DA) were applied to the groundwater quality data measured on 14 parameters from 67 sites distributed across the city. Hierarchical cluster analysis (CA) grouped the 67 sampling stations into two groups, cluster 1 having high pollution and cluster 2 having lesser pollution. Discriminant analysis (DA) was applied to delineate the most meaningful parameters accounting for temporal and spatial variations in groundwater quality of the study area. Temporal DA identified pH as the most important parameter, which discriminates between water quality in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and accounts for 72% seasonal assignation of cases. Spatial DA identified Mg, Cl and NO3 as the three most important parameters discriminating between two clusters and accounting for 89% spatial assignation of cases. Principal component analysis was applied to the dataset obtained from the two clusters, which evolved three factors in each cluster, explaining 85.4 and 84% of the total variance, respectively. Varifactors obtained from principal component analysis showed that groundwater quality variation is mainly explained by dissolution of minerals from rock water interactions in the aquifer, effect of anthropogenic activities and ion exchange processes in water.

Effect of spatial and temporal scales on habitat suitability modeling: A case study of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwest pacific ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Caixia; Chen, Xinjun; Gao, Feng; Tian, Siquan

2014-12-01

Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology, and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution. The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling, with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid ( Ommastrephes bartramii) in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example. In this study, the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature (SST) from remote sensing during August to October of 2003-2008 were used. We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales (0.5°, 1° and 2°), four longitude scales (0.5°, 1°, 2° and 4°), and three temporal scales (week, fortnight, and month). The coefficients of variation (CV) of the weekly, biweekly and monthly suitability index (SI) were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise. This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month, and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O. bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts. We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.

Representing spatial and temporal complexity in ecohydrological models: a meta-analysis focusing on groundwater - surface water interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Karlie; Mika, Sarah; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Ben; Ciocca, Francesco; Marruedo, Amaia; Hannah, David; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan; Karuse, Stefan

2016-04-01

Sub-surface hydrologic processes are highly dynamic, varying spatially and temporally with strong links to the geomorphology and hydrogeologic properties of an area. This spatial and temporal complexity is a critical regulator of biogeochemical and ecological processes within the interface groundwater - surface water (GW-SW) ecohydrological interface and adjacent ecosystems. Many GW-SW models have attempted to capture this spatial and temporal complexity with varying degrees of success. The incorporation of spatial and temporal complexity within GW-SW model configuration is important to investigate interactions with transient storage and subsurface geology, infiltration and recharge, and mass balance of exchange fluxes at the GW-SW ecohydrological interface. Additionally, characterising spatial and temporal complexity in GW-SW models is essential to derive predictions using realistic environmental conditions. In this paper we conduct a systematic Web of Science meta-analysis of conceptual, hydrodynamic, and reactive and heat transport models of the GW-SW ecohydrological interface since 2004 to explore how these models handled spatial and temporal complexity. The freshwater - groundwater ecohydrological interface was the most commonly represented in publications between 2004 and 2014 with 91% of papers followed by marine 6% and estuarine systems with 3% of papers. Of the GW-SW models published since 2004, the 52% have focused on hydrodynamic processes and <15% covered more than one process (e.g. heat and reactive transport). Within the hydrodynamic subset, 25% of models focused on a vertical depth of <5m. The primary scientific and technological limitations of incorporating spatial and temporal variability into GW-SW models are identified as the inclusion of woody debris, carbon sources, subsurface geological structures and bioclogging into model parameterization. The technological limitations influence the types of models applied, such as hydrostatic coupled models and fully intrinsic saturated and unsaturated models, and the assumptions or simplifications scientists apply to investigate the GW-SW ecohydrological interface. We investigated the type of modelling approaches applied across different scales (site, reach, catchment, nested catchments) and assessed the simplifications in environmental conditions and complexity that are commonly made in model configuration. Understanding the theoretical concepts that underpin these current modelling approaches is critical for scientists to develop measures to derive predictions from realistic environmental conditions at management relevant scales and establish best-practice modelling approaches for improving the scientific understanding and management of the GW-SW interface. Additionally, the assessment of current modelling approaches informs our proposed framework for the progress of GW-SW models in the future. The framework presented aims to increase future scientific, technological and management integration and the identification of research priorities to allow spatial and temporal complexity to be better incorporated into GW-SW models.

Esophageal wall dose-surface maps do not improve the predictive performance of a multivariable NTCP model for acute esophageal toxicity in advanced stage NSCLC patients treated with intensity-modulated (chemo-)radiotherapy.

PubMed

Dankers, Frank; Wijsman, Robin; Troost, Esther G C; Monshouwer, René; Bussink, Johan; Hoffmann, Aswin L

2017-05-07

In our previous work, a multivariable normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for acute esophageal toxicity (AET) Grade  ⩾2 after highly conformal (chemo-)radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis incorporating clinical parameters and mean esophageal dose (MED). Since the esophagus is a tubular organ, spatial information of the esophageal wall dose distribution may be important in predicting AET. We investigated whether the incorporation of esophageal wall dose-surface data with spatial information improves the predictive power of our established NTCP model. For 149 NSCLC patients treated with highly conformal radiation therapy esophageal wall dose-surface histograms (DSHs) and polar dose-surface maps (DSMs) were generated. DSMs were used to generate new DSHs and dose-length-histograms that incorporate spatial information of the dose-surface distribution. From these histograms dose parameters were derived and univariate logistic regression analysis showed that they correlated significantly with AET. Following our previous work, new multivariable NTCP models were developed using the most significant dose histogram parameters based on univariate analysis (19 in total). However, the 19 new models incorporating esophageal wall dose-surface data with spatial information did not show improved predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC range 0.79-0.84) over the established multivariable NTCP model based on conventional dose-volume data (AUC  =  0.84). For prediction of AET, based on the proposed multivariable statistical approach, spatial information of the esophageal wall dose distribution is of no added value and it is sufficient to only consider MED as a predictive dosimetric parameter.

Esophageal wall dose-surface maps do not improve the predictive performance of a multivariable NTCP model for acute esophageal toxicity in advanced stage NSCLC patients treated with intensity-modulated (chemo-)radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dankers, Frank; Wijsman, Robin; Troost, Esther G. C.; Monshouwer, René; Bussink, Johan; Hoffmann, Aswin L.

2017-05-01

In our previous work, a multivariable normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for acute esophageal toxicity (AET) Grade  ⩾2 after highly conformal (chemo-)radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis incorporating clinical parameters and mean esophageal dose (MED). Since the esophagus is a tubular organ, spatial information of the esophageal wall dose distribution may be important in predicting AET. We investigated whether the incorporation of esophageal wall dose-surface data with spatial information improves the predictive power of our established NTCP model. For 149 NSCLC patients treated with highly conformal radiation therapy esophageal wall dose-surface histograms (DSHs) and polar dose-surface maps (DSMs) were generated. DSMs were used to generate new DSHs and dose-length-histograms that incorporate spatial information of the dose-surface distribution. From these histograms dose parameters were derived and univariate logistic regression analysis showed that they correlated significantly with AET. Following our previous work, new multivariable NTCP models were developed using the most significant dose histogram parameters based on univariate analysis (19 in total). However, the 19 new models incorporating esophageal wall dose-surface data with spatial information did not show improved predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC range 0.79-0.84) over the established multivariable NTCP model based on conventional dose-volume data (AUC  =  0.84). For prediction of AET, based on the proposed multivariable statistical approach, spatial information of the esophageal wall dose distribution is of no added value and it is sufficient to only consider MED as a predictive dosimetric parameter.

Nuclear-effects model embedded stochastically in simulation (NEMESIS) summary report. Technical paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngren, M.A.

1989-11-01

An analytic probability model of tactical nuclear warfare in the theater is presented in this paper. The model addresses major problems associated with representing nuclear warfare in the theater. Current theater representations of a potential nuclear battlefield are developed in context of low-resolution, theater-level models or scenarios. These models or scenarios provide insufficient resolution in time and space for modeling a nuclear exchange. The model presented in this paper handles the spatial uncertainty in potentially targeted unit locations by proposing two-dimensional multivariate probability models for the actual and perceived locations of units subordinate to the major (division-level) units represented inmore » theater scenarios. The temporal uncertainty in the activities of interest represented in our theater-level Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM) is handled through probability models of the acquisition and movement of potential nuclear target units.« less

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

Predicting crash frequency for multi-vehicle collision types using multivariate Poisson-lognormal spatial model: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Sahebi, Sina; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-06-01

According to crash configuration and pre-crash conditions, traffic crashes are classified into different collision types. Based on the literature, multi-vehicle crashes, such as head-on, rear-end, and angle crashes, are more frequent than single-vehicle crashes, and most often result in serious consequences. From a methodological point of view, the majority of prior studies focused on multivehicle collisions have employed univariate count models to estimate crash counts separately by collision type. However, univariate models fail to account for correlations which may exist between different collision types. Among others, multivariate Poisson lognormal (MVPLN) model with spatial correlation is a promising multivariate specification because it not only allows for unobserved heterogeneity (extra-Poisson variation) and dependencies between collision types, but also spatial correlation between adjacent sites. However, the MVPLN spatial model has rarely been applied in previous research for simultaneously modelling crash counts by collision type. Therefore, this study aims at utilizing a MVPLN spatial model to estimate crash counts for four different multi-vehicle collision types, including head-on, rear-end, angle, and sideswipe collisions. To investigate the performance of the MVPLN spatial model, a two-stage model and a univariate Poisson lognormal model (UNPLN) spatial model were also developed in this study. Detailed information on roadway characteristics, traffic volume, and crash history were collected on 407 homogeneous segments from Malaysian federal roads. The results indicate that the MVPLN spatial model outperforms the other comparing models in terms of goodness-of-fit measures. The results also show that the inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in the multivariate model significantly improves the model fit, as indicated by the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). The correlation between crash types is high and positive, implying that the occurrence of a specific collision type is highly associated with the occurrence of other crash types on the same road segment. These results support the utilization of the MVPLN spatial model when predicting crash counts by collision manner. In terms of contributing factors, the results show that distinct crash types are attributed to different subsets of explanatory variables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking multi-temporal satellite imagery to coastal wetland dynamics and bird distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; King, Sammy L.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems are characterized by dynamic ecological processes, such as flooding and fires, but spatial models are often limited to a single measurement in time. The characterization of direct, fine-scale processes affecting animals is potentially valuable for management applications, but these are difficult to quantify over broad extents. Direct predictors are also expected to improve transferability of models beyond the area of study. Here, we investigated the ability of non-static and multi-temporal habitat characteristics to predict marsh bird distributions, while testing model generality and transferability between two coastal habitats. Distribution models were developed for king rail (Rallus elegans), common gallinule (Gallinula galeata), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), and purple gallinule (Porphyrio martinica) in fresh and intermediate marsh types in the northern Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas, USA. For model development, repeated point count surveys of marsh birds were conducted from 2009 to 2011. Landsat satellite imagery was used to quantify both annual conditions and cumulative, multi-temporal habitat characteristics. We used multivariate adaptive regression splines to quantify bird-habitat relationships for fresh, intermediate, and combined marsh habitats. Multi-temporal habitat characteristics ranked as more important than single-date characteristics, as temporary water was most influential in six of eight models. Predictive power was greater for marsh type-specific models compared to general models and model transferability was poor. Birds in fresh marsh selected for annual habitat characterizations, while birds in intermediate marsh selected for cumulative wetness and heterogeneity. Our findings emphasize that dynamic ecological processes can affect species distribution and species-habitat relationships may differ with dominant landscape characteristics.

A space-time multiscale modelling of Earth's gravity field variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuo; Panet, Isabelle; Ramillien, Guillaume; Guilloux, Frédéric

2017-04-01

The mass distribution within the Earth varies over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, generating variations in the Earth's gravity field in space and time. These variations are monitored by satellites as the GRACE mission, with a 400 km spatial resolution and 10 days to 1 month temporal resolution. They are expressed in the form of gravity field models, often with a fixed spatial or temporal resolution. The analysis of these models allows us to study the mass transfers within the Earth system. Here, we have developed space-time multi-scale models of the gravity field, in order to optimize the estimation of gravity signals resulting from local processes at different spatial and temporal scales, and to adapt the time resolution of the model to its spatial resolution according to the satellites sampling. For that, we first build a 4D wavelet family combining spatial Poisson wavelets with temporal Haar wavelets. Then, we set-up a regularized inversion of inter-satellites gravity potential differences in a bayesian framework, to estimate the model parameters. To build the prior, we develop a spectral analysis, localized in time and space, of geophysical models of mass transport and associated gravity variations. Finally, we test our approach to the reconstruction of space-time variations of the gravity field due to hydrology. We first consider a global distribution of observations along the orbit, from a simplified synthetic hydrology signal comprising only annual variations at large spatial scales. Then, we consider a regional distribution of observations in Africa, and a larger number of spatial and temporal scales. We test the influence of an imperfect prior and discuss our results.

Improving Prediction Accuracy for WSN Data Reduction by Applying Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Correlation

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Carlos; Gomes, Danielo G.; Agoulmine, Nazim; de Souza, José Neuman

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a method based on multivariate spatial and temporal correlation to improve prediction accuracy in data reduction for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Prediction of data not sent to the sink node is a technique used to save energy in WSNs by reducing the amount of data traffic. However, it may not be very accurate. Simulations were made involving simple linear regression and multiple linear regression functions to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results show a higher correlation between gathered inputs when compared to time, which is an independent variable widely used for prediction and forecasting. Prediction accuracy is lower when simple linear regression is used, whereas multiple linear regression is the most accurate one. In addition to that, our proposal outperforms some current solutions by about 50% in humidity prediction and 21% in light prediction. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that we are probably the first to address prediction based on multivariate correlation for WSN data reduction. PMID:22346626

Scaling properties of Arctic sea ice deformation in high-resolution viscous-plastic sea ice models and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2017-04-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very high grid resolution can resolve leads and deformation rates that are localised along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1-km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small scale sea-ice deformations in the Central Arctic are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS). A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids determines the spatial and the temporal scaling as well as the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modelled sea ice deformation implies multi-fractality. The spatial scaling is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling and its coupling to temporal scales with satellite observations and models with the modern elasto-brittle rheology challenges previous results with VP models at coarse resolution where no such scaling was found. The temporal scaling analysis, however, shows that the VP model does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities.

PubMed

Frelat, Romain; Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

Efficient Lane Boundary Detection with Spatial-Temporal Knowledge Filtering

PubMed Central

Nan, Zhixiong; Wei, Ping; Xu, Linhai; Zheng, Nanning

2016-01-01

Lane boundary detection technology has progressed rapidly over the past few decades. However, many challenges that often lead to lane detection unavailability remain to be solved. In this paper, we propose a spatial-temporal knowledge filtering model to detect lane boundaries in videos. To address the challenges of structure variation, large noise and complex illumination, this model incorporates prior spatial-temporal knowledge with lane appearance features to jointly identify lane boundaries. The model first extracts line segments in video frames. Two novel filters—the Crossing Point Filter (CPF) and the Structure Triangle Filter (STF)—are proposed to filter out the noisy line segments. The two filters introduce spatial structure constraints and temporal location constraints into lane detection, which represent the spatial-temporal knowledge about lanes. A straight line or curve model determined by a state machine is used to fit the line segments to finally output the lane boundaries. We collected a challenging realistic traffic scene dataset. The experimental results on this dataset and other standard dataset demonstrate the strength of our method. The proposed method has been successfully applied to our autonomous experimental vehicle. PMID:27529248

Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis for extreme events using Archimedean copula. Case study: Lower Tunjuelo River basin (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Wilmar

2017-04-01

By analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events we can prevent or reduce the threat and risk. Many water resources projects require joint probability distributions of random variables such as precipitation intensity and duration, which can not be independent with each other. The problem of defining a probability model for observations of several dependent variables is greatly simplified by the joint distribution in terms of their marginal by taking copulas. This document presents a general framework set frequency analysis bivariate and multivariate using Archimedean copulas for extreme events of hydroclimatological nature such as severe storms. This analysis was conducted in the lower Tunjuelo River basin in Colombia for precipitation events. The results obtained show that for a joint study of the intensity-duration-frequency, IDF curves can be obtained through copulas and thus establish more accurate and reliable information from design storms and associated risks. It shows how the use of copulas greatly simplifies the study of multivariate distributions that introduce the concept of joint return period used to represent the needs of hydrological designs properly in frequency analysis.

Analysis of the dependence of extreme rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padoan, Simone; Ancey, Christophe; Parlange, Marc

2010-05-01

The aim of spatial analysis is to quantitatively describe the behavior of environmental phenomena such as precipitation levels, wind speed or daily temperatures. A number of generic approaches to spatial modeling have been developed[1], but these are not necessarily ideal for handling extremal aspects given their focus on mean process levels. The areal modelling of the extremes of a natural process observed at points in space is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extremal spatial rainfall is crucial in flood protection. In light of recent concerns over climate change, the use of robust mathematical and statistical methods for such analyses has grown in importance. Multivariate extreme value models and the class of maxstable processes [2] have a similar asymptotic motivation to the univariate Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution , but providing a general approach to modeling extreme processes incorporating temporal or spatial dependence. Statistical methods for max-stable processes and data analyses of practical problems are discussed by [3] and [4]. This work illustrates methods to the statistical modelling of spatial extremes and gives examples of their use by means of a real extremal data analysis of Switzerland precipitation levels. [1] Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for Spatial Data. Wiley, New York. [2] de Haan, L and Ferreria A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory An Introduction. Springer, USA. [3] Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M and Sisson, S. A. (2009). Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory & Methods. In press. [4] Davison, A. C. and Gholamrezaee, M. (2009), Geostatistics of extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. To appear.

Spatiotemporal modelling of groundwater extraction in semi-arid central Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keir, Greg; Bulovic, Nevenka; McIntyre, Neil

2016-04-01

The semi-arid Surat Basin in central Queensland, Australia, forms part of the Great Artesian Basin, a groundwater resource of national significance. While this area relies heavily on groundwater supply bores to sustain agricultural industries and rural life in general, measurement of groundwater extraction rates is very limited. Consequently, regional groundwater extraction rates are not well known, which may have implications for regional numerical groundwater modelling. However, flows from a small number of bores are metered, and less precise anecdotal estimates of extraction are increasingly available. There is also an increasing number of other spatiotemporal datasets which may help predict extraction rates (e.g. rainfall, temperature, soils, stocking rates etc.). These can be used to construct spatial multivariate regression models to estimate extraction. The data exhibit complicated statistical features, such as zero-valued observations, non-Gaussianity, and non-stationarity, which limit the use of many classical estimation techniques, such as kriging. As well, water extraction histories may exhibit temporal autocorrelation. To account for these features, we employ a separable space-time model to predict bore extraction rates using the R-INLA package for computationally efficient Bayesian inference. A joint approach is used to model both the probability (using a binomial likelihood) and magnitude (using a gamma likelihood) of extraction. The correlation between extraction rates in space and time is modelled using a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with a Matérn spatial covariance function which can evolve over time according to an autoregressive model. To reduce computational burden, we allow the GMRF to be evaluated at a relatively coarse temporal resolution, while still allowing predictions to be made at arbitrarily small time scales. We describe the process of model selection and inference using an information criterion approach, and present some preliminary results from the study area. We conclude by discussing issues related with upscaling of the modelling approach to the entire basin, including merging of extraction rate observations with different precision, temporal resolution, and even potentially different likelihoods.

Stochastic generators of multi-site daily temperature: comparison of performances in various applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evin, Guillaume; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Hingray, Benoit

2018-02-01

We present a multi-site stochastic model for the generation of average daily temperature, which includes a flexible parametric distribution and a multivariate autoregressive process. Different versions of this model are applied to a set of 26 stations located in Switzerland. The importance of specific statistical characteristics of the model (seasonality, marginal distributions of standardized temperature, spatial and temporal dependence) is discussed. In particular, the proposed marginal distribution is shown to improve the reproduction of extreme temperatures (minima and maxima). We also demonstrate that the frequency and duration of cold spells and heat waves are dramatically underestimated when the autocorrelation of temperature is not taken into account in the model. An adequate representation of these characteristics can be crucial depending on the field of application, and we discuss potential implications in different contexts (agriculture, forestry, hydrology, human health).

Spatial and temporal correlation between beach and wave processes: implications for bar-berm sediment transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joevivek, V.; Chandrasekar, N.; Saravanan, S.; Anandakumar, H.; Thanushkodi, K.; Suguna, N.; Jaya, J.

2018-06-01

Investigation of a beach and its wave conditions is highly requisite for understanding the physical processes in a coast. This study composes spatial and temporal correlation between beach and nearshore processes along the extensive sandy beach of Nagapattinam coast, southeast peninsular India. The data collection includes beach profile, wave data, and intertidal sediment samples for 2 years from January 2011 to January 2013. The field data revealed significant variability in beach and wave morphology during the northeast (NE) and southwest (SW) monsoon. However, the beach has been stabilized by the reworking of sediment distribution during the calm period. The changes in grain sorting and longshore sediment transport serve as a clear evidence of the sediment migration that persevered between foreshore and nearshore regions. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) were utilized to investigate the spatial and temporal linkages between beach and nearshore criterions. The outcome of the multivariate analysis unveiled that the seasonal variations in the wave climate tends to influence the bar-berm sediment transition that is discerned in the coast.

Modelling Spatial Dependence Structures Between Climate Variables by Combining Mixture Models with Copula Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, F.; Pilz, J.; Spöck, G.

2017-12-01

Spatio-temporal dependence structures play a pivotal role in understanding the meteorological characteristics of a basin or sub-basin. This further affects the hydrological conditions and consequently will provide misleading results if these structures are not taken into account properly. In this study we modeled the spatial dependence structure between climate variables including maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation in the Monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. For temperature, six, and for precipitation four meteorological stations have been considered. For modelling the dependence structure between temperature and precipitation at multiple sites, we utilized C-Vine, D-Vine and Student t-copula models. For temperature, multivariate mixture normal distributions and for precipitation gamma distributions have been used as marginals under the copula models. A comparison was made between C-Vine, D-Vine and Student t-copula by observational and simulated spatial dependence structure to choose an appropriate model for the climate data. The results show that all copula models performed well, however, there are subtle differences in their performances. The copula models captured the patterns of spatial dependence structures between climate variables at multiple meteorological sites, however, the t-copula showed poor performance in reproducing the dependence structure with respect to magnitude. It was observed that important statistics of observed data have been closely approximated except of maximum values for temperature and minimum values for minimum temperature. Probability density functions of simulated data closely follow the probability density functions of observational data for all variables. C and D-Vines are better tools when it comes to modelling the dependence between variables, however, Student t-copulas compete closely for precipitation. Keywords: Copula model, C-Vine, D-Vine, Spatial dependence structure, Monsoon dominated region of Pakistan, Mixture models, EM algorithm.

Spatial/Temporal Variations of Crime: A Routine Activity Theory Perspective.

PubMed

de Melo, Silas Nogueira; Pereira, Débora V S; Andresen, Martin A; Matias, Lindon Fonseca

2018-05-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.

Time-series panel analysis (TSPA): multivariate modeling of temporal associations in psychotherapy process.

PubMed

Ramseyer, Fabian; Kupper, Zeno; Caspar, Franz; Znoj, Hansjörg; Tschacher, Wolfgang

2014-10-01

Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Multivariate Non-Symmetric Stochastic Models for Spatial Dependence Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haslauer, C. P.; Bárdossy, A.

2017-12-01

A copula based multivariate framework allows more flexibility to describe different kind of dependences than what is possible using models relying on the confining assumption of symmetric Gaussian models: different quantiles can be modelled with a different degree of dependence; it will be demonstrated how this can be expected given process understanding. maximum likelihood based multivariate quantitative parameter estimation yields stable and reliable results; not only improved results in cross-validation based measures of uncertainty are obtained but also a more realistic spatial structure of uncertainty compared to second order models of dependence; as much information as is available is included in the parameter estimation: incorporation of censored measurements (e.g., below detection limit, or ones that are above the sensitive range of the measurement device) yield to more realistic spatial models; the proportion of true zeros can be jointly estimated with and distinguished from censored measurements which allow estimates about the age of a contaminant in the system; secondary information (categorical and on the rational scale) has been used to improve the estimation of the primary variable; These copula based multivariate statistical techniques are demonstrated based on hydraulic conductivity observations at the Borden (Canada) site, the MADE site (USA), and a large regional groundwater quality data-set in south-west Germany. Fields of spatially distributed K were simulated with identical marginal simulation, identical second order spatial moments, yet substantially differing solute transport characteristics when numerical tracer tests were performed. A statistical methodology is shown that allows the delineation of a boundary layer separating homogenous parts of a spatial data-set. The effects of this boundary layer (macro structure) and the spatial dependence of K (micro structure) on solute transport behaviour is shown.

Using joint ICA to link function and structure using MEG and DTI in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Stephen, JM; Coffman, BA; Jung, RE; Bustillo, JR; Aine, CJ; Calhoun, VD

2013-01-01

In this study we employed joint independent component analysis (jICA) to perform a novel multivariate integration of magnetoencephalography (MEG) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data to investigate the link between function and structure. This model-free approach allows one to identify covariation across modalities with different temporal and spatial scales [temporal variation in MEG and spatial variation in fractional anisotropy (FA) maps]. Healthy controls (HC) and patients with schizophrenia (SP) participated in an auditory/visual multisensory integration paradigm to probe cortical connectivity in schizophrenia. To allow direct comparisons across participants and groups, the MEG data were registered to an average head position and regional waveforms were obtained by calculating the local field power of the planar gradiometers. Diffusion tensor images obtained in the same individuals were preprocessed to provide FA maps for each participant. The MEG/FA data were then integrated using the jICA software (http://mialab.mrn.org/software/fit). We identified MEG/FA components that demonstrated significantly different (p < 0.05) covariation in MEG/FA data between diagnostic groups (SP vs. HC) and three components that captured the predominant sensory responses in the MEG data. Lower FA values in bilateral posterior parietal regions, which include anterior/posterior association tracts, were associated with reduced MEG amplitude (120-170 ms) of the visual response in occipital sensors in SP relative to HC. Additionally, increased FA in a right medial frontal region was linked with larger amplitude late MEG activity (300-400 ms) in bilateral central channels for SP relative to HC. Step-wise linear regression provided evidence that right temporal, occipital and late central components were significant predictors of reaction time and cognitive performance based on the Measurement and Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (MATRICS) cognitive assessment battery. These results point to dysfunction in a posterior visual processing network in schizophrenia, with reduced MEG amplitude, reduced FA and poorer overall performance on the MATRICS. Interestingly, the spatial location of the MEG activity and the associated FA regions are spatially consistent with white matter regions that subserve these brain areas. This novel approach provides evidence for significant pairing between function (electrophysiology) and structure (white matter integrity) and demonstrates the sensitivity of this multivariate, multimodal integration technique to group differences in function and structure. PMID:23777757

A conditional Granger causality model approach for group analysis in functional MRI

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhenyu; Wang, Xunheng; Klahr, Nelson J.; Liu, Wei; Arias, Diana; Liu, Hongzhi; von Deneen, Karen M.; Wen, Ying; Lu, Zuhong; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Yijun

2011-01-01

Granger causality model (GCM) derived from multivariate vector autoregressive models of data has been employed for identifying effective connectivity in the human brain with functional MR imaging (fMRI) and to reveal complex temporal and spatial dynamics underlying a variety of cognitive processes. In the most recent fMRI effective connectivity measures, pairwise GCM has commonly been applied based on single voxel values or average values from special brain areas at the group level. Although a few novel conditional GCM methods have been proposed to quantify the connections between brain areas, our study is the first to propose a viable standardized approach for group analysis of an fMRI data with GCM. To compare the effectiveness of our approach with traditional pairwise GCM models, we applied a well-established conditional GCM to pre-selected time series of brain regions resulting from general linear model (GLM) and group spatial kernel independent component analysis (ICA) of an fMRI dataset in the temporal domain. Datasets consisting of one task-related and one resting-state fMRI were used to investigate connections among brain areas with the conditional GCM method. With the GLM detected brain activation regions in the emotion related cortex during the block design paradigm, the conditional GCM method was proposed to study the causality of the habituation between the left amygdala and pregenual cingulate cortex during emotion processing. For the resting-state dataset, it is possible to calculate not only the effective connectivity between networks but also the heterogeneity within a single network. Our results have further shown a particular interacting pattern of default mode network (DMN) that can be characterized as both afferent and efferent influences on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). These results suggest that the conditional GCM approach based on a linear multivariate vector autoregressive (MVAR) model can achieve greater accuracy in detecting network connectivity than the widely used pairwise GCM, and this group analysis methodology can be quite useful to extend the information obtainable in fMRI. PMID:21232892

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

DOE PAGES

Patrick, Joshua D.; Harvill, Jane L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2016-03-01

Here, we evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. These results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance atmore » high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Moreover, this kind of modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems.« less

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Matthew P. Thompson; Dave Calkin

2016-01-01

Increasing costs of wildfire management have highlighted the need to better understand suppression expenditures and potential tradeoffs of land management activities that may affect fire risks. Spatially and temporally descriptive data is used to develop a model of wildfire suppression expenditures, providing new insights into the role of spatial and temporal...

A Skew-t space-varying regression model for the spectral analysis of resting state brain activity.

PubMed

Ismail, Salimah; Sun, Wenqi; Nathoo, Farouk S; Babul, Arif; Moiseev, Alexader; Beg, Mirza Faisal; Virji-Babul, Naznin

2013-08-01

It is known that in many neurological disorders such as Down syndrome, main brain rhythms shift their frequencies slightly, and characterizing the spatial distribution of these shifts is of interest. This article reports on the development of a Skew-t mixed model for the spatial analysis of resting state brain activity in healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome. Time series of oscillatory brain activity are recorded using magnetoencephalography, and spectral summaries are examined at multiple sensor locations across the scalp. We focus on the mean frequency of the power spectral density, and use space-varying regression to examine associations with age, gender and Down syndrome across several scalp regions. Spatial smoothing priors are incorporated based on a multivariate Markov random field, and the markedly non-Gaussian nature of the spectral response variable is accommodated by the use of a Skew-t distribution. A range of models representing different assumptions on the association structure and response distribution are examined, and we conduct model selection using the deviance information criterion. (1) Our analysis suggests region-specific differences between healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome, particularly in the left and right temporal regions, and produces smoothed maps indicating the scalp topography of the estimated differences.

The spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in a forested basin in northern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

2010-01-01

Recharge varies spatially and temporally as it depends on a wide variety of factors (e.g. vegetation, precipitation, climate, topography, geology, and soil type), making it one of the most difficult, complex, and uncertain hydrologic parameters to quantify. Despite its inherent variability, groundwater modellers, planners, and policy makers often ignore recharge variability and assume a single average recharge value for an entire watershed. Relatively few attempts have been made to quantify or incorporate spatial and temporal recharge variability into water resource planning or groundwater modelling efforts. In this study, a simple, daily soil-water balance model was developed and used to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge of the Trout Lake basin of northern Wisconsin for 1996-2000 as a means to quantify recharge variability. For the 5 years of study, annual recharge varied spatially by as much as 18 cm across the basin; vegetation was the predominant control on this variability. Recharge also varied temporally with a threefold annual difference over the 5-year period. Intra-annually, recharge was limited to a few isolated events each year and exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern. The results suggest that ignoring recharge variability may not only be inappropriate, but also, depending on the application, may invalidate model results and predictions for regional and local water budget calculations, water resource management, nutrient cycling, and contaminant transport studies. Recharge is spatially and temporally variable, and should be modelled as such. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of Temporal and Spatial Rainfall Resolution on HSPF Predictive Performance and Parameter Estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed scale rainfall‐runoff models are used for environmental management and regulatory modeling applications, but their effectiveness are limited by predictive uncertainties associated with model input data. This study evaluated the effect of temporal and spatial rainfall re...

A geographic data model for representing ground water systems.

PubMed

Strassberg, Gil; Maidment, David R; Jones, Norm L

2007-01-01

The Arc Hydro ground water data model is a geographic data model for representing spatial and temporal ground water information within a geographic information system (GIS). The data model is a standardized representation of ground water systems within a spatial database that provides a public domain template for GIS users to store, document, and analyze commonly used spatial and temporal ground water data sets. This paper describes the data model framework, a simplified version of the complete ground water data model that includes two-dimensional and three-dimensional (3D) object classes for representing aquifers, wells, and borehole data, and the 3D geospatial context in which these data exist. The framework data model also includes tabular objects for representing temporal information such as water levels and water quality samples that are related with spatial features.

Attempting to physically explain space-time correlation of extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joel

2010-05-01

Spatial and temporal clustering of hydro-meteorological extreme events is scientific evidence. Moreover, the statistical parameters characterizing their local frequencies of occurrence show clear spatial patterns. Thus, in order to robustly assess the hydro-meteorological hazard, statistical models need to be able to take into account spatial and temporal dependencies. Statistical models considering long term correlation for quantifying and qualifying temporal and spatial dependencies are available, such as multifractal approach. Furthermore, the development of regional frequency analysis techniques allows estimating the frequency of occurrence of extreme events taking into account spatial patterns on the extreme quantiles behaviour. However, in order to understand the origin of spatio-temporal clustering, an attempt to find physical explanation should be done. Here, some statistical evidences of spatio-temporal correlation and spatial patterns of extreme behaviour are given on a large database of more than 400 rainfall and discharge series in France. In particular, the spatial distribution of multifractal and Generalized Pareto distribution parameters shows evident correlation patterns in the behaviour of frequency of occurrence of extremes. It is then shown that the identification of atmospheric circulation pattern (weather types) can physically explain the temporal clustering of extreme rainfall events (seasonality) and the spatial pattern of the frequency of occurrence. Moreover, coupling this information with the hydrological modelization of a watershed (as in the Schadex approach) an explanation of spatio-temporal distribution of extreme discharge can also be provided. We finally show that a hydro-meteorological approach (as the Schadex approach) can explain and take into account space and time dependencies of hydro-meteorological extreme events.

Pattern classification of fMRI data: applications for analysis of spatially distributed cortical networks.

PubMed

Yourganov, Grigori; Schmah, Tanya; Churchill, Nathan W; Berman, Marc G; Grady, Cheryl L; Strother, Stephen C

2014-08-01

The field of fMRI data analysis is rapidly growing in sophistication, particularly in the domain of multivariate pattern classification. However, the interaction between the properties of the analytical model and the parameters of the BOLD signal (e.g. signal magnitude, temporal variance and functional connectivity) is still an open problem. We addressed this problem by evaluating a set of pattern classification algorithms on simulated and experimental block-design fMRI data. The set of classifiers consisted of linear and quadratic discriminants, linear support vector machine, and linear and nonlinear Gaussian naive Bayes classifiers. For linear discriminant, we used two methods of regularization: principal component analysis, and ridge regularization. The classifiers were used (1) to classify the volumes according to the behavioral task that was performed by the subject, and (2) to construct spatial maps that indicated the relative contribution of each voxel to classification. Our evaluation metrics were: (1) accuracy of out-of-sample classification and (2) reproducibility of spatial maps. In simulated data sets, we performed an additional evaluation of spatial maps with ROC analysis. We varied the magnitude, temporal variance and connectivity of simulated fMRI signal and identified the optimal classifier for each simulated environment. Overall, the best performers were linear and quadratic discriminants (operating on principal components of the data matrix) and, in some rare situations, a nonlinear Gaussian naïve Bayes classifier. The results from the simulated data were supported by within-subject analysis of experimental fMRI data, collected in a study of aging. This is the first study that systematically characterizes interactions between analysis model and signal parameters (such as magnitude, variance and correlation) on the performance of pattern classifiers for fMRI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher peak discharge.

An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach and its application in the cadastral management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yangdong; Han, Zhen; Liao, Zhongping

2009-10-01

Spatiality, temporality, legality, accuracy and continuality are characteristic of cadastral information, and the cadastral management demands that the cadastral data should be accurate, integrated and updated timely. It's a good idea to build an effective GIS management system to manage the cadastral data which are characterized by spatiality and temporality. Because no sound spatio-temporal data models have been adopted, however, the spatio-temporal characteristics of cadastral data are not well expressed in the existing cadastral management systems. An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach is first proposed from the angle of event and version. Then with the help of it, an event-version-based spatio-temporal cadastral data model is built to represent spatio-temporal cadastral data. At last, the previous model is used in the design and implementation of a spatio-temporal cadastral management system. The result of the application of the system shows that the event-version-based spatio-temporal data model is very suitable for the representation and organization of cadastral data.

Spatial Dynamics and Determinants of County-Level Education Expenditure in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, Jiafeng

2012-01-01

In this paper, a multivariate spatial autoregressive model of local public education expenditure determination with autoregressive disturbance is developed and estimated. The existence of spatial interdependence is tested using Moran's I statistic and Lagrange multiplier test statistics for both the spatial error and spatial lag models. The full…

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O.; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs. PMID:29136658

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Quantifying stream thermal regimes at management-pertinent scales: combining thermal infrared and stationary stream temperature data in a novel modeling framework.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vatland, Shane J.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Poole, Geoffrey C.

2015-01-01

Accurately quantifying stream thermal regimes can be challenging because stream temperatures are often spatially and temporally heterogeneous. In this study, we present a novel modeling framework that combines stream temperature data sets that are continuous in either space or time. Specifically, we merged the fine spatial resolution of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery with hourly data from 10 stationary temperature loggers in a 100 km portion of the Big Hole River, MT, USA. This combination allowed us to estimate summer thermal conditions at a relatively fine spatial resolution (every 100 m of stream length) over a large extent of stream (100 km of stream) during during the warmest part of the summer. Rigorous evaluation, including internal validation, external validation with spatially continuous instream temperature measurements collected from a Langrangian frame of reference, and sensitivity analyses, suggests the model was capable of accurately estimating longitudinal patterns in summer stream temperatures for this system Results revealed considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in summer stream temperatures and highlighted the value of assessing thermal regimes at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. Preserving spatial and temporal variability and structure in abiotic stream data provides a critical foundation for understanding the dynamic, multiscale habitat needs of mobile stream organisms. Similarly, enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal variation in dynamic water quality attributes, including temporal sequence and spatial arrangement, can guide strategic placement of monitoring equipment that will subsequently capture variation in environmental conditions directly pertinent to research and management objectives.

CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS: DEVELOPMENT OF A GRID-BASED WATERSHED MERCURY LOADING MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A distributed grid-based watershed mercury loading model has been developed to characterize spatial and temporal dynamics of mercury from both point and non-point sources. The model simulates flow, sediment transport, and mercury dynamics on a daily time step across a diverse lan...

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns. PMID:26147887

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences.

PubMed

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns.

Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, Charles H.; Lopez-Burgos, Viviana; Holden, Zachary

2014-12-01

Empirical sensitivity analyses are important for evaluation of the effects of a changing climate on water resources and ecosystems. Although mechanistic models are commonly applied for evaluation of climate effects for snowmelt, empirical relationships provide a first-order validation of the various postulates required for their implementation. Previous studies of empirical sensitivity for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) in the western United States were developed by regressing interannual variations in SWE to winter precipitation and temperature. This offers a temporal analog for climate change, positing that a warmer future looks like warmer years. Spatial analogs are used to hypothesize that a warmer future may look like warmer places, and are frequently applied alternatives for complex processes, or states/metrics that show little interannual variability (e.g., forest cover). We contrast spatial and temporal analogs for sensitivity of April 1 SWE and the mean residence time of snow (SRT) using data from 524 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western U.S. We built relatively strong models using spatial analogs to relate temperature and precipitation climatology to snowpack climatology (April 1 SWE, R2=0.87, and SRT, R2=0.81). Although the poorest temporal analog relationships were in areas showing the highest sensitivity to warming, spatial analog models showed consistent performance throughout the range of temperature and precipitation. Generally, slopes from the spatial relationships showed greater thermal sensitivity than the temporal analogs, and high elevation stations showed greater vulnerability using a spatial analog than shown in previous modeling and sensitivity studies. The spatial analog models provide a simple perspective to evaluate potential futures and may be useful in further evaluation of snowpack with warming.

Three dimensional simulation of spatial and temporal variability of stratospheric hydrogen chloride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaye, Jack A.; Rood, Richard B.; Jackman, Charles H.; Allen, Dale J.; Larson, Edmund M.

1989-01-01

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric HCl columns are calculated for January 1979 using a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model designed to provide the best possible representation of stratospheric transport. Large spatial and temporal variability of the HCl columns is shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric potential vorticity and thus to be of dynamical origin. Systematic longitudinal structure is correlated with planetary wave structure. These results can help place spatially and temporally isolated column and profile measurements in a regional and/or global perspective.

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system

PubMed Central

Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J.; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method’s implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System’s C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis. PMID:28886112

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system.

PubMed

Mathes, Robert W; Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method's implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System's C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis.

CMAQ MODELING FOR AIR TOXICS AT FINE SCALES: A PROTOTYPE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Toxic air pollutants (TAPs) or hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) exhibit considerable spatial and temporal variability across urban areas. Therefore, the ability of chemical transport models (CTMs), e.g. Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), to reproduce the spatial and tempor...

Disentangling how landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity affects Savanna birds.

PubMed

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A; Kutt, Alex S; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R; Ludwig, John A

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1-100 ha) and landscape (100-1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes.

Disentangling How Landscape Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Affects Savanna Birds

PubMed Central

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A.; Kutt, Alex S.; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R.; Ludwig, John A.

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1–100 ha) and landscape (100–1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes. PMID:24066138

Aspects of spatial and temporal aggregation in estimating regional carbon dioxide fluxes from temperate forest soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peterjohn, William T.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Mcguire, A. David; Steudler, Paul A.; Aber, John D.

1994-01-01

We examine the influence of aggregation errors on developing estimates of regional soil-CO2 flux from temperate forests. We find daily soil-CO2 fluxes to be more sensitive to changes in soil temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 3.08) than air temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 1.99). The direct use of mean monthly air temperatures with a daily flux model underestimates regional fluxes by approximately 4%. Temporal aggregation error varies with spatial resolution. Overall, our calibrated modeling approach reduces spatial aggregation error by 9.3% and temporal aggregation error by 15.5%. After minimizing spatial and temporal aggregation errors, mature temperate forest soils are estimated to contribute 12.9 Pg C/yr to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Georeferenced model estimates agree well with annual soil-CO2 fluxes measured during chamber studies in mature temperate forest stands around the globe.

Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are weak, especially when more stringent conditions are imposed (i.e. when T is very high), except at the monthly scale.

Kalman filter techniques for accelerated Cartesian dynamic cardiac imaging.

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M; Meyer, Craig H

2013-05-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome, and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view-sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kalman Filter Techniques for Accelerated Cartesian Dynamic Cardiac Imaging

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M.; Meyer, Craig H.

2012-01-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories, because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and SNR. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. PMID:22926804

Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning

Treesearch

Larry A. Leefers; Eric J. Gustafson; Phillip Freeman

2003-01-01

Increasingly, resource management agencies and researchers have turned their analysis and modeling efforts towards spatial and temporal information. This is driven by the need to address wildlife concerns, landscape issues, and social/economic questions. Historically, the USDA Forest Service has used optimization models (i.e., FORPLAN and Spectrum) for timber harvest...

Genome-scale modelling of microbial metabolism with temporal and spatial resolution.

PubMed

Henson, Michael A

2015-12-01

Most natural microbial systems have evolved to function in environments with temporal and spatial variations. A major limitation to understanding such complex systems is the lack of mathematical modelling frameworks that connect the genomes of individual species and temporal and spatial variations in the environment to system behaviour. The goal of this review is to introduce the emerging field of spatiotemporal metabolic modelling based on genome-scale reconstructions of microbial metabolism. The extension of flux balance analysis (FBA) to account for both temporal and spatial variations in the environment is termed spatiotemporal FBA (SFBA). Following a brief overview of FBA and its established dynamic extension, the SFBA problem is introduced and recent progress is described. Three case studies are reviewed to illustrate the current state-of-the-art and possible future research directions are outlined. The author posits that SFBA is the next frontier for microbial metabolic modelling and a rapid increase in methods development and system applications is anticipated. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a sediment transport model of China's largest freshwater lake: spatial and temporal effects.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoling; Lu, Jianzhong; Zhang, Wei

2015-12-01

Numerical models are important tools that are used in studies of sediment dynamics in inland and coastal waters, and these models can now benefit from the use of integrated remote sensing observations. This study explores a scheme for assimilating remotely sensed suspended sediment (from charge-coupled device (CCD) images obtained from the Huanjing (HJ) satellite) into a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Optimal interpolation is used as the assimilation method, and model predictions are obtained by combining four remote sensing images. The parameters for optimal interpolation are determined through a series of assimilation experiments evaluating the sediment predictions based on field measurements. The model with assimilation of remotely sensed sediment reduces the root-mean-square error of the predicted sediment concentrations by 39.4% relative to the model without assimilation, demonstrating the effectiveness of the assimilation scheme. The spatial effect of assimilation is explored by comparing model predictions with remotely sensed sediment, revealing that the model with assimilation generates reasonable spatial distribution patterns of suspended sediment. The temporal effect of assimilation on the model's predictive capabilities varies spatially, with an average temporal effect of approximately 10.8 days. The current velocities which dominate the rate and direction of sediment transport most likely result in spatial differences in the temporal effect of assimilation on model predictions.

Landsat Spectral Indices Applied to Chl-a Monitoring in Finnish Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, E. E.; Lisboa, F. B.; Brotas, V.; Kuikka, S.; Kaikkonen, L.

2017-12-01

With the launch of a new generation of multispectral space borne sensors, remote sensing of lakes has seen large progress in recent years. However, estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) across different environmental conditions remains challenging. In particular, constructing long time series of chl-a concentrations is hindered by the relatively recent use of ocean color satellites. The Landsat (LT) archive currently provides over three decades of images with suitable spatial resolution, and previous studies demonstrated good relationships between in situ measurements and LT reflectance bands. However, the estimation of limnological phytoplankton biomass based on LT data remains elusive, given its coarse spectral and temporal resolutions. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between chl-a concentrations, taken from in situ measurements, and LT spectral indices across 19 Finnish lakes. Image gathering and analysis of remotely sensed data were carried out using Google Earth Engine, allowing the assessment of the entire LT 5 and 7 archives. The boundaries of lakes' surfaces were defined using the permanent water regions of the Global Surface Water data set. We developed algorithms to iteratively derive models for chl-a estimation in all 19 lakes, resulting in a data set of correlation coefficients and statistical significances, from which we identified the best models for each lake. We evaluated models driven by single bands, band ratios, and multivariate fittings. Additionally, we included a variable time-window for matching up our imagery with the in situ data. Our results showed that the correlation between LT data and in-situ chl-a varies strongly among lakes. In some cases, a strong correlation can be found over specific bands or reflectance indices: Pyhäjärvi, multivariable model, R2 = 0.9, p-values = {0.04, 0.03} and Köyliönjärvi, R2 = 0.6, p-value = 0.009. Further studies will evaluate the reasons for discrepancies between lakes, as well as the chl-a threshold detection level among lakes with different trophic states.

Atmospheric Tracer Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasibhatla, P.

2004-12-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing emphasis on the use of Bayesian statistical estimation techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric trace gas sources and sinks. The applications have been varied in terms of the particular species of interest, as well as in terms of the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated fluxes. However, one common characteristic has been the use of relatively simple statistical models for describing the measurement and chemical transport model error statistics and prior source statistics. For example, multivariate normal probability distribution functions (pdfs) are commonly used to model these quantities and inverse source estimates are derived for fixed values of pdf paramaters. While the advantage of this approach is that closed form analytical solutions for the a posteriori pdfs of interest are available, it is worth exploring Bayesian analysis approaches which allow for a more general treatment of error and prior source statistics. Here, we present an application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to an atmospheric tracer inversion problem to demonstrate how more gereral statistical models for errors can be incorporated into the analysis in a relatively straightforward manner. The MCMC approach to Bayesian analysis, which has found wide application in a variety of fields, is a statistical simulation approach that involves computing moments of interest of the a posteriori pdf by efficiently sampling this pdf. The specific inverse problem that we focus on is the annual mean CO2 source/sink estimation problem considered by the TransCom3 project. TransCom3 was a collaborative effort involving various modeling groups and followed a common modeling and analysis protocoal. As such, this problem provides a convenient case study to demonstrate the applicability of the MCMC methodology to atmospheric tracer source/sink estimation problems.

Spatial-Temporal Intelligence: Original Thinking Processes of Gifted Inventors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Eileen E.

2000-01-01

This psychological phenomenological research analyzed cognition of 7 adult inventors and proposes a theory of original, creative thinking. Spatial intelligence is reviewed. Results provide 7 findings, including cognitive, motivational, affective, and psychokinesthetic factors. Spatial-temporal intelligence is theorized as an abstract model of…

Supporting user-defined granularities in a spatiotemporal conceptual model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khatri, V.; Ram, S.; Snodgrass, R.T.; O'Brien, G. M.

2002-01-01

Granularities are integral to spatial and temporal data. A large number of applications require storage of facts along with their temporal and spatial context, which needs to be expressed in terms of appropriate granularities. For many real-world applications, a single granularity in the database is insufficient. In order to support any type of spatial or temporal reasoning, the semantics related to granularities needs to be embedded in the database. Specifying granularities related to facts is an important part of conceptual database design because under-specifying the granularity can restrict an application, affect the relative ordering of events and impact the topological relationships. Closely related to granularities is indeterminacy, i.e., an occurrence time or location associated with a fact that is not known exactly. In this paper, we present an ontology for spatial granularities that is a natural analog of temporal granularities. We propose an upward-compatible, annotation-based spatiotemporal conceptual model that can comprehensively capture the semantics related to spatial and temporal granularities, and indeterminacy without requiring new spatiotemporal constructs. We specify the formal semantics of this spatiotemporal conceptual model via translation to a conventional conceptual model. To underscore the practical focus of our approach, we describe an on-going case study. We apply our approach to a hydrogeologic application at the United States Geologic Survey and demonstrate that our proposed granularity-based spatiotemporal conceptual model is straightforward to use and is comprehensive.

SPAGETTA, a Gridded Weather Generator: Calibration, Validation and its Use for Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin; Rotach, Mathias W.; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Spagetta is a new (started in 2016) stochastic multi-site multi-variate weather generator (WG). It can produce realistic synthetic daily (or monthly, or annual) weather series representing both present and future climate conditions at multiple sites (grids or stations irregularly distributed in space). The generator, whose model is based on the Wilks' (1999) multi-site extension of the parametric (Richardson's type) single site M&Rfi generator, may be run in two modes: In the first mode, it is run as a classical generator, which is calibrated in the first step using weather data from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic time series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration weather data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. In the second mode, the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the surface weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying autoregressive model, which produces the multi-site weather series. In the latter mode of operation, the user is allowed to prescribe the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the values produced by the generator; this feature has been implemented for use in developing the methodology for assessing significance of trends in multi-site weather series (for more details see another EGU-2017 contribution: Huth and Dubrovsky, 2017, Evaluating collective significance of climatic trends: A comparison of methods on synthetic data; EGU2017-4993). This contribution will focus on the first (classical) mode. The poster will present (a) model of the generator, (b) results of the validation tests made in terms of the spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells, and (c) results of the pilot climate change impact experiment, in which (i) the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and then (ii) the effect on the above spatial validation indices derived from the synthetic series produced by the modified WG is analysed. In this experiment, the generator is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulation (taken from the CORDEX database).

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High‐Resolution Viscous‐Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

PubMed Central

Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Abstract Sea ice models with the traditional viscous‐plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan‐Arctic sea ice‐ocean simulation, the small‐scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data. PMID:29576996

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Spatio-temporal alignment of pedobarographic image sequences.

PubMed

Oliveira, Francisco P M; Sousa, Andreia; Santos, Rubim; Tavares, João Manuel R S

2011-07-01

This article presents a methodology to align plantar pressure image sequences simultaneously in time and space. The spatial position and orientation of a foot in a sequence are changed to match the foot represented in a second sequence. Simultaneously with the spatial alignment, the temporal scale of the first sequence is transformed with the aim of synchronizing the two input footsteps. Consequently, the spatial correspondence of the foot regions along the sequences as well as the temporal synchronizing is automatically attained, making the study easier and more straightforward. In terms of spatial alignment, the methodology can use one of four possible geometric transformation models: rigid, similarity, affine, or projective. In the temporal alignment, a polynomial transformation up to the 4th degree can be adopted in order to model linear and curved time behaviors. Suitable geometric and temporal transformations are found by minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) between the input sequences. The methodology was tested on a set of real image sequences acquired from a common pedobarographic device. When used in experimental cases generated by applying geometric and temporal control transformations, the methodology revealed high accuracy. In addition, the intra-subject alignment tests from real plantar pressure image sequences showed that the curved temporal models produced better MSE results (P < 0.001) than the linear temporal model. This article represents an important step forward in the alignment of pedobarographic image data, since previous methods can only be applied on static images.

A temporal and spatial analysis of ground-water levels for effective monitoring in Huron County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Sweat, M.J.

1999-01-01

Quarterly water-level measurements were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of a monitoring network of 26 wells in Huron County, Michigan. Trends were identified as constant levels and autoregressive components were computed at all wells on the basis of data collected from 1993 to 1997, using structural time series analysis. Fixed seasonal components were identified at 22 wells and outliers were identified at 23 wells. The 95- percent confidence intervals were forecast for water-levels during the first and second quarters of 1998. Intervals in the first quarter were consistent with 92.3 percent of the measured values. In the second quarter, measured values were within the forecast intervals only 65.4 percent of the time. Unusually low precipitation during the second quarter is thought to have contributed to the reduced reliability of the second-quarter forecasts. Spatial interrelations among wells were investigated on the basis of the autoregressive components, which were filtered to create a set of innovation sequences that were temporally uncorrelated. The empirical covariance among the innovation sequences indicated both positive and negative spatial interrelations. The negative covariance components are considered to be physically implausible and to have resulted from random sampling error. Graphical modeling, a form of multivariate analysis, was used to model the covariance structure. Results indicate that only 29 of the 325 possible partial correlations among the water-level innovations were statistically significant. The model covariance matrix, corresponding to the model partial correlation structure, contained only positive elements. This model covariance was sequentially partitioned to compute a set of partial covariance matrices that were used to rank the effectiveness of the 26 monitoring wells from greatest to least. Results, for example, indicate that about 50 percent of the uncertainty of the water-level innovations currently monitored by the 26- well network could be described by the 6 most effective wells.

Modeling spatiotemporal covariance for magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography source analysis.

PubMed

Plis, Sergey M; George, J S; Jun, S C; Paré-Blagoev, J; Ranken, D M; Wood, C C; Schmidt, D M

2007-01-01

We propose a new model to approximate spatiotemporal noise covariance for use in neural electromagnetic source analysis, which better captures temporal variability in background activity. As with other existing formalisms, our model employs a Kronecker product of matrices representing temporal and spatial covariance. In our model, spatial components are allowed to have differing temporal covariances. Variability is represented as a series of Kronecker products of spatial component covariances and corresponding temporal covariances. Unlike previous attempts to model covariance through a sum of Kronecker products, our model is designed to have a computationally manageable inverse. Despite increased descriptive power, inversion of the model is fast, making it useful in source analysis. We have explored two versions of the model. One is estimated based on the assumption that spatial components of background noise have uncorrelated time courses. Another version, which gives closer approximation, is based on the assumption that time courses are statistically independent. The accuracy of the structural approximation is compared to an existing model, based on a single Kronecker product, using both Frobenius norm of the difference between spatiotemporal sample covariance and a model, and scatter plots. Performance of ours and previous models is compared in source analysis of a large number of single dipole problems with simulated time courses and with background from authentic magnetoencephalography data.

Temporal associations for spatial events: the role of the dentate gyrus.

PubMed

Morris, Andrea M; Curtis, Brian J; Churchwell, John C; Maasberg, David W; Kesner, Raymond P

2013-11-01

Previous research suggests that the dorsal dentate gyrus (DG) hippocampal subregion mediates spatial processing functions. However, a novel role for the DG in temporal processing for spatial information has begun to emerge based on the development of a computational model of neurogenesis. According to this model, adult born granule cells in the DG contribute to a temporal associative integration process for events presented closer in time. Currently, there is a paucity of behavioral evidence to support the temporal integration theory. Therefore, we developed a novel behavioral paradigm to investigate the role of the dDG in temporal integration for proximal and distal spatial events. Male Long-Evans rats were randomly assigned to a control group or to receive bilateral intracranial infusions of colchicine into the dDG. Following recovery from surgery, each rat was tested on a cued-recall of sequence paradigm. In this task, animals were allowed to explore identical objects placed in designated spatial locations on a cheeseboard maze across 2 days (e.g., Day 1: A and B; Day 2: C and D). One week later, animals were given a brief cue (A or C) followed by a preference test between spatial location B and D. Control animals had a significant preference for the spatial location previously paired with the cue (the temporal associate) whereas dDG lesioned animals failed to show a preference. These findings suggest that selective colchicine-induced dDG lesions are capable of disrupting the formation of temporal associations between spatial events presented close in time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selective spatial enhancement: Attentional spotlight size impacts spatial but not temporal perception.

PubMed

Goodhew, Stephanie C; Shen, Elizabeth; Edwards, Mark

2016-08-01

An important but often neglected aspect of attention is how changes in the attentional spotlight size impact perception. The zoom-lens model predicts that a small ("focal") attentional spotlight enhances all aspects of perception relative to a larger ("diffuse" spotlight). However, based on the physiological properties of the two major classes of visual cells (magnocellular and parvocellular neurons) we predicted trade-offs in spatial and temporal acuity as a function of spotlight size. Contrary to both of these accounts, however, across two experiments we found that attentional spotlight size affected spatial acuity, such that spatial acuity was enhanced for a focal relative to a diffuse spotlight, whereas the same modulations in spotlight size had no impact on temporal acuity. This likely reflects the function of attention: to induce the high spatial resolution of the fovea in periphery, where spatial resolution is poor but temporal resolution is good. It is adaptive, therefore, for the attentional spotlight to enhance spatial acuity, whereas enhancing temporal acuity does not confer the same benefit.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Spatio-temporal statistical models for river monitoring networks.

PubMed

Clement, L; Thas, O; Vanrolleghem, P A; Ottoy, J P

2006-01-01

When introducing new wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), investors and policy makers often want to know if there indeed is a beneficial effect of the installation of a WWTP on the river water quality. Such an effect can be established in time as well as in space. Since both temporal and spatial components affect the output of a monitoring network, their dependence structure has to be modelled. River water quality data typically come from a river monitoring network for which the spatial dependence structure is unidirectional. Thus the traditional spatio-temporal models are not appropriate, as they cannot take advantage of this directional information. In this paper, a state-space model is presented in which the spatial dependence of the state variable is represented by a directed acyclic graph, and the temporal dependence by a first-order autoregressive process. The state-space model is extended with a linear model for the mean to estimate the effect of the activation of a WWTP on the dissolved oxygen concentration downstream.

An Object-Based Approach to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.

2017-12-01

Evaluations of the performance of earth system model predictions and projections are of critical importance to enhance usefulness of these products. Such evaluations need to address specific concerns depending on the system and decisions of interest; hence, evaluation tools must be tailored to inform about specific issues. Traditional approaches that summarize grid-based comparisons of analyses and models, or between current and future climate, often do not reveal important information about the models' performance (e.g., spatial or temporal displacements; the reason behind a poor score) and are unable to accommodate these specific information needs. For example, summary statistics such as the correlation coefficient or the mean-squared error provide minimal information to developers, users, and decision makers regarding what is "right" and "wrong" with a model. New spatial and temporal-spatial object-based tools from the field of weather forecast verification (where comparisons typically focus on much finer temporal and spatial scales) have been adapted to more completely answer some of the important earth system model evaluation questions. In particular, the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool and its temporal (three-dimensional) extension (MODE-TD) have been adapted for these evaluations. More specifically, these tools can be used to address spatial and temporal displacements in projections of El Nino-related precipitation and/or temperature anomalies, ITCZ-associated precipitation areas, atmospheric rivers, seasonal sea-ice extent, and other features of interest. Examples of several applications of these tools in a climate context will be presented, using output of the CESM large ensemble. In general, these tools provide diagnostic information about model performance - accounting for spatial, temporal, and intensity differences - that cannot be achieved using traditional (scalar) model comparison approaches. Thus, they can provide more meaningful information that can be used in decision-making and planning. Future extensions and applications of these tools in a climate context will be considered.

Assessing the Resolution Adaptability of the Zhang-McFarlane Cumulus Parameterization With Spatial and Temporal Averaging: RESOLUTION ADAPTABILITY OF ZM SCHEME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yun, Yuxing; Fan, Jiwen; Xiao, Heng

Realistic modeling of cumulus convection at fine model resolutions (a few to a few tens of km) is problematic since it requires the cumulus scheme to adapt to higher resolution than they were originally designed for (~100 km). To solve this problem, we implement the spatial averaging method proposed in Xiao et al. (2015) and also propose a temporal averaging method for the large-scale convective available potential energy (CAPE) tendency in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) cumulus parameterization. The resolution adaptability of the original ZM scheme, the scheme with spatial averaging, and the scheme with both spatial and temporal averaging at 4-32more » km resolution is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, by comparing with Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) results. We find that the original ZM scheme has very poor resolution adaptability, with sub-grid convective transport and precipitation increasing significantly as the resolution increases. The spatial averaging method improves the resolution adaptability of the ZM scheme and better conserves the total transport of moist static energy and total precipitation. With the temporal averaging method, the resolution adaptability of the scheme is further improved, with sub-grid convective precipitation becoming smaller than resolved precipitation for resolution higher than 8 km, which is consistent with the results from the CRM simulation. Both the spatial distribution and time series of precipitation are improved with the spatial and temporal averaging methods. The results may be helpful for developing resolution adaptability for other cumulus parameterizations that are based on quasi-equilibrium assumption.« less

Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Bryan K. Epperson; Brad H. McRae; Kim Scribner; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael S. Rosenberg; Marie-Josee Fortin; Patrick M. A. James; Melanie Murphy; Stephanie Manel; Pierre Legendre; Mark R. T. Dale

2010-01-01

Population genetics theory is primarily based on mathematical models in which spatial complexity and temporal variability are largely ignored. In contrast, the field of landscape genetics expressly focuses on how population genetic processes are affected by complex spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. It is spatially explicit and relates patterns to...

A generalized spatiotemporal covariance model for stationary background in analysis of MEG data.

PubMed

Plis, S M; Schmidt, D M; Jun, S C; Ranken, D M

2006-01-01

Using a noise covariance model based on a single Kronecker product of spatial and temporal covariance in the spatiotemporal analysis of MEG data was demonstrated to provide improvement in the results over that of the commonly used diagonal noise covariance model. In this paper we present a model that is a generalization of all of the above models. It describes models based on a single Kronecker product of spatial and temporal covariance as well as more complicated multi-pair models together with any intermediate form expressed as a sum of Kronecker products of spatial component matrices of reduced rank and their corresponding temporal covariance matrices. The model provides a framework for controlling the tradeoff between the described complexity of the background and computational demand for the analysis using this model. Ways to estimate the value of the parameter controlling this tradeoff are also discussed.

Epidemiological characteristics of reported sporadic and outbreak cases of E. coli O157 in people from Alberta, Canada (2000-2002): methodological challenges of comparing clustered to unclustered data.

PubMed

Pearl, D L; Louie, M; Chui, L; Doré, K; Grimsrud, K M; Martin, S W; Michel, P; Svenson, L W; McEwen, S A

2008-04-01

Using multivariable models, we compared whether there were significant differences between reported outbreak and sporadic cases in terms of their sex, age, and mode and site of disease transmission. We also determined the potential role of administrative, temporal, and spatial factors within these models. We compared a variety of approaches to account for clustering of cases in outbreaks including weighted logistic regression, random effects models, general estimating equations, robust variance estimates, and the random selection of one case from each outbreak. Age and mode of transmission were the only epidemiologically and statistically significant covariates in our final models using the above approaches. Weighing observations in a logistic regression model by the inverse of their outbreak size appeared to be a relatively robust and valid means for modelling these data. Some analytical techniques, designed to account for clustering, had difficulty converging or producing realistic measures of association.

Spatial-temporal Trends and Factors Associated with the Bluetongue Virus Seropositivity in Large Game Hunting Areas from Southern Spain.

PubMed

Arenas-Montes, A; Paniagua, J; Arenas, A; Lorca-Oró, C; Carbonero, A; Cano-Terriza, D; García-Bocanegra, I

2016-10-01

An epidemiological study was carried out to determine the spatial-temporal trends and risk factors potentially involved in the seropositivity to bluetongue virus (BTV) in hunting areas with presence of red deer (Cervus elaphus). A total of 60 of 98 (61.2%; CI95% : 51.6-70.9) hunting areas sampled presented at least one seropositive red deer. Antibodies against BTV were detected in juvenile animals during the hunting seasons 2007/2008 to 2013/2014 in 15 of 98 (15.3%) hunting areas, which indicates an uninterrupted circulation of BTV in this period. A multivariate logistic regression model showed that the red deer density at hunting area level (>22 individuals/km(2) ), the annual abundance of Culicoides imicola (>1.4 mosquitoes/sampling) and the goat density at municipality level (>24.1 individuals/km(2) ) were factors significantly associated with BTV seropositivity in hunting areas. Control measures against BTV in the studied area include vaccination programmes in wild and domestic ruminants, movement control in areas with high densities and abundance of red deer and C. imicola, respectively. Considering the potential risk of BTV re-emergence, red deer should be included in the BT surveillance programmes in regions where these species share habitats with livestock. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Investigation on the dominant factors controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture in experimental grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwichtenberg, G.; Hildebrandt, A.; Samaniego-Eguiguren, L.; Kreutziger, Y.; Attinger, S.

2009-04-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture in the unsaturated zone influences the vegetation growth, governs the runoff generation processes as well as the energy balance at the interface between biosphere and the atmosphere, by influencing evapotranspiration. A better understanding of the spatio-temporal variability and dependence of soil moisture on living versus abiotic environment would lead to an improved representation of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere processes in hydrological and climate models. The Jena Experiment site (Germany) was established October 2001 in order to analyse the interaction between plant diversity and ecosystem processes. The main experiment covers 92 plots of 20 x 20 m arranged into a grid, on which a mixture of up to 60 grassland species and of one to four plant functional groups have been seeded. Each of these plots is equipped with at least one measurement tube for soil moisture. Measurements have been conducted weekly for four growing seasons (SSF). Here, we use geostatistical methods, like variograms and multivariate regressions, to investigate in how far abiotic environment and ecosystem explain the spatial and temporal variation of soil moisture at the Jena Experiment site. We test the influence of the soil environment, biodiversity, leaf area index and groundwater table. The poster will present the results of this analysis.

Spatial and temporal variation of water quality of a segment of Marikina River using multivariate statistical methods.

PubMed

Chounlamany, Vanseng; Tanchuling, Maria Antonia; Inoue, Takanobu

2017-09-01

Payatas landfill in Quezon City, Philippines, releases leachate to the Marikina River through a creek. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to study temporal and spatial variations in water quality of a segment of the Marikina River. The data set included 12 physico-chemical parameters for five monitoring stations over a year. Cluster analysis grouped the monitoring stations into four clusters and identified January-May as dry season and June-September as wet season. Principal components analysis showed that three latent factors are responsible for the data set explaining 83% of its total variance. The chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand, total dissolved solids, Cl - and PO 4 3- are influenced by anthropogenic impact/eutrophication pollution from point sources. Total suspended solids, turbidity and SO 4 2- are influenced by rain and soil erosion. The highest state of pollution is at the Payatas creek outfall from March to May, whereas at downstream stations it is in May. The current study indicates that the river monitoring requires only four stations, nine water quality parameters and testing over three specific months of the year. The findings of this study imply that Payatas landfill requires a proper leachate collection and treatment system to reduce its impact on the Marikina River.

Incorporating time and spatial-temporal reasoning into situation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobson, Gabriel

2010-04-01

Spatio-temporal reasoning plays a significant role in situation management that is performed by intelligent agents (human or machine) by affecting how the situations are recognized, interpreted, acted upon or predicted. Many definitions and formalisms for the notion of spatio-temporal reasoning have emerged in various research fields including psychology, economics and computer science (computational linguistics, data management, control theory, artificial intelligence and others). In this paper we examine the role of spatio-temporal reasoning in situation management, particularly how to resolve situations that are described by using spatio-temporal relations among events and situations. We discuss a model for describing context sensitive temporal relations and show have the model can be extended for spatial relations.

A spatial model of bird abundance as adjusted for detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P.M.; Mcmillan, G.P.; Camp, R.J.; Pratt, T.K.

2009-01-01

Modeling the spatial distribution of animals can be complicated by spatial and temporal effects (i.e. spatial autocorrelation and trends in abundance over time) and other factors such as imperfect detection probabilities and observation-related nuisance variables. Recent advances in modeling have demonstrated various approaches that handle most of these factors but which require a degree of sampling effort (e.g. replication) not available to many field studies. We present a two-step approach that addresses these challenges to spatially model species abundance. Habitat, spatial and temporal variables were handled with a Bayesian approach which facilitated modeling hierarchically structured data. Predicted abundance was subsequently adjusted to account for imperfect detection and the area effectively sampled for each species. We provide examples of our modeling approach for two endemic Hawaiian nectarivorous honeycreepers: 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea and 'apapane Himatione sanguinea. ?? 2009 Ecography.

Principles of Temporal Processing Across the Cortical Hierarchy.

PubMed

Himberger, Kevin D; Chien, Hsiang-Yun; Honey, Christopher J

2018-05-02

The world is richly structured on multiple spatiotemporal scales. In order to represent spatial structure, many machine-learning models repeat a set of basic operations at each layer of a hierarchical architecture. These iterated spatial operations - including pooling, normalization and pattern completion - enable these systems to recognize and predict spatial structure, while robust to changes in the spatial scale, contrast and noisiness of the input signal. Because our brains also process temporal information that is rich and occurs across multiple time scales, might the brain employ an analogous set of operations for temporal information processing? Here we define a candidate set of temporal operations, and we review evidence that they are implemented in the mammalian cerebral cortex in a hierarchical manner. We conclude that multiple consecutive stages of cortical processing can be understood to perform temporal pooling, temporal normalization and temporal pattern completion. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A smarter way to search, share and utilize open-spatial online data for energy R&D - Custom machine learning and GIS tools in U.S. DOE's virtual data library & laboratory, EDX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, K.; Bauer, J.; Baker, D.; Barkhurst, A.; Bean, A.; DiGiulio, J.; Jones, K.; Jones, T.; Justman, D.; Miller, R., III; Romeo, L.; Sabbatino, M.; Tong, A.

2017-12-01

As spatial datasets are increasingly accessible through open, online systems, the opportunity to use these resources to address a range of Earth system questions grows. Simultaneously, there is a need for better infrastructure and tools to find and utilize these resources. We will present examples of advanced online computing capabilities, hosted in the U.S. DOE's Energy Data eXchange (EDX), that address these needs for earth-energy research and development. In one study the computing team developed a custom, machine learning, big data computing tool designed to parse the web and return priority datasets to appropriate servers to develop an open-source global oil and gas infrastructure database. The results of this spatial smart search approach were validated against expert-driven, manual search results which required a team of seven spatial scientists three months to produce. The custom machine learning tool parsed online, open systems, including zip files, ftp sites and other web-hosted resources, in a matter of days. The resulting resources were integrated into a geodatabase now hosted for open access via EDX. Beyond identifying and accessing authoritative, open spatial data resources, there is also a need for more efficient tools to ingest, perform, and visualize multi-variate, spatial data analyses. Within the EDX framework, there is a growing suite of processing, analytical and visualization capabilities that allow multi-user teams to work more efficiently in private, virtual workspaces. An example of these capabilities are a set of 5 custom spatio-temporal models and data tools that form NETL's Offshore Risk Modeling suite that can be used to quantify oil spill risks and impacts. Coupling the data and advanced functions from EDX with these advanced spatio-temporal models has culminated with an integrated web-based decision-support tool. This platform has capabilities to identify and combine data across scales and disciplines, evaluate potential environmental, social, and economic impacts, highlight knowledge or technology gaps, and reduce uncertainty for a range of `what if' scenarios relevant to oil spill prevention efforts. These examples illustrate EDX's growing capabilities for advanced spatial data search and analysis to support geo-data science needs.

Estimation of Actual Crop ET of Paddy Using the Energy Balance Model SMARET and Validation with Field Water Balance Measurements and a Crop Growth Model (ORYZA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nallasamy, N. D.; Muraleedharan, B. V.; Kathirvel, K.; Narasimhan, B.

2014-12-01

Sustainable management of water resources requires reliable estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at fine spatial and temporal resolution. This is significant in the case of rice based irrigation systems, one of the major consumers of surface water resources and where ET forms a major component of water consumption. However huge tradeoff in the spatial and temporal resolution of satellite images coupled with lack of adequate number of cloud free images within a growing season act as major constraints in deriving ET at fine spatial and temporal resolution using remote sensing based energy balance models. The scale at which ET is determined is decided by the spatial and temporal scale of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which form inputs to energy balance models. In this context, the current study employed disaggregation algorithms (NL-DisTrad and DisNDVI) to generate time series of LST and NDVI images at fine resolution. The disaggregation algorithms aimed at generating LST and NDVI at finer scale by integrating temporal information from concurrent coarse resolution data and spatial information from a single fine resolution image. The temporal frequency of the disaggregated images is further improved by employing composite images of NDVI and LST in the spatio-temporal disaggregation method. The study further employed half-hourly incoming surface insolation and outgoing long wave radiation obtained from the Indian geostationary satellite (Kalpana-1) to convert the instantaneous ET into daily ET and subsequently to the seasonal ET, thereby improving the accuracy of ET estimates. The estimates of ET were validated with field based water balance measurements carried out in Gadana, a subbasin predominated by rice paddy fields, located in Tamil Nadu, India.

A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks.

PubMed

Hocking, Daniel J; Thorson, James T; O'Neil, Kyle; Letcher, Benjamin H

2018-06-21

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty under-estimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatio-temporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 years. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the non-spatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatio-temporal model. We applied this model to Brook Trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 years from 1981 - 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatio-temporal autocorrelation best described young-of-the-year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately-high spatio-temporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatio-temporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

beta-diversity and species accumulation in antarctic coastal benthos: influence of habitat, distance and productivity on ecological connectivity.

PubMed

Thrush, Simon F; Hewitt, Judi E; Cummings, Vonda J; Norkko, Alf; Chiantore, Mariachiara

2010-07-30

High Antarctic coastal marine environments are comparatively pristine with strong environmental gradients, which make them important places to investigate biodiversity relationships. Defining how different environmental features contribute to shifts in beta-diversity is especially important as these shifts reflect both spatio-temporal variations in species richness and the degree of ecological separation between local and regional species pools. We used complementary techniques (species accumulation models, multivariate variance partitioning and generalized linear models) to assess how the roles of productivity, bio-physical habitat heterogeneity and connectivity change with spatial scales from metres to 100's of km. Our results demonstrated that the relative importance of specific processes influencing species accumulation and beta-diversity changed with increasing spatial scale, and that patterns were never driven by only one factor. Bio-physical habitat heterogeneity had a strong influence on beta-diversity at scales <290 km, while the effects of productivity were low and significant only at scales >40 km. Our analysis supports the emphasis on the analysis of diversity relationships across multiple spatial scales and highlights the unequal connectivity of individual sites to the regional species pool. This has important implications for resilience to habitat loss and community homogenisation, especially for Antarctic benthic communities where rates of recovery from disturbance are slow, there is a high ratio of poor-dispersing and brooding species, and high biogenic habitat heterogeneity and spatio-temporal variability in primary production make the system vulnerable to disturbance. Consequently, large areas need to be included within marine protected areas for effective management and conservation of these special ecosystems in the face of increasing anthropogenic disturbance.

Decoupled ARX and RBF Neural Network Modeling Using PCA and GA Optimization for Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Ridong; Tao, Jili; Lu, Renquan; Jin, Qibing

2018-02-01

Modeling of distributed parameter systems is difficult because of their nonlinearity and infinite-dimensional characteristics. Based on principal component analysis (PCA), a hybrid modeling strategy that consists of a decoupled linear autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model and a nonlinear radial basis function (RBF) neural network model are proposed. The spatial-temporal output is first divided into a few dominant spatial basis functions and finite-dimensional temporal series by PCA. Then, a decoupled ARX model is designed to model the linear dynamics of the dominant modes of the time series. The nonlinear residual part is subsequently parameterized by RBFs, where genetic algorithm is utilized to optimize their hidden layer structure and the parameters. Finally, the nonlinear spatial-temporal dynamic system is obtained after the time/space reconstruction. Simulation results of a catalytic rod and a heat conduction equation demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy compared to several other methods.

A spatial panel ordered-response model with application to the analysis of urban land-use development intensity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdous, Nazneen; Bhat, Chandra R.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes and estimates a spatial panel ordered-response probit model with temporal autoregressive error terms to analyze changes in urban land development intensity levels over time. Such a model structure maintains a close linkage between the land owner's decision (unobserved to the analyst) and the land development intensity level (observed by the analyst) and accommodates spatial interactions between land owners that lead to spatial spillover effects. In addition, the model structure incorporates spatial heterogeneity as well as spatial heteroscedasticity. The resulting model is estimated using a composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach that does not require any simulation machinery and that can be applied to data sets of any size. A simulation exercise indicates that the CML approach recovers the model parameters very well, even in the presence of high spatial and temporal dependence. In addition, the simulation results demonstrate that ignoring spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity when both are actually present will lead to bias in parameter estimation. A demonstration exercise applies the proposed model to examine urban land development intensity levels using parcel-level data from Austin, Texas.

Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadvand, Payam; Rushton, Stephen; Diggle, Peter J.; Goffe, Louis; Rankin, Judith; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

2011-01-01

Whilst exposure to air pollution is linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes, assessing levels of this exposure has remained a challenge. This study reports a modeling approach for the estimation of weekly levels of ambient black smoke (BS) at residential postcodes across Northeast England (2055 km 2) over a 12 year period (1985-1996). A two-stage modeling strategy was developed using monitoring data on BS together with a range of covariates including data on traffic, population density, industrial activity, land cover (remote sensing), and meteorology. The first stage separates the temporal trend in BS for the region as a whole from within-region spatial variation and the second stage is a linear model which predicts BS levels at all locations in the region using spatially referenced covariate data as predictors and the regional predicted temporal trend as an offset. Traffic and land cover predictors were included in the final model, which predicted 70% of the spatio-temporal variation in BS across the study region over the study period. This modeling approach appears to provide a robust way of estimating exposure to BS at an inter-urban scale.

Long-term ground deformation patterns of Bucharest using multi-temporal InSAR and multivariate dynamic analyses: a possible transpressional system?

PubMed Central

Armaş, Iuliana; Mendes, Diana A.; Popa, Răzvan-Gabriel; Gheorghe, Mihaela; Popovici, Diana

2017-01-01

The aim of this exploratory research is to capture spatial evolution patterns in the Bucharest metropolitan area using sets of single polarised synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and multi-temporal radar interferometry. Three sets of SAR data acquired during the years 1992–2010 from ERS-1/-2 and ENVISAT, and 2011–2014 from TerraSAR-X satellites were used in conjunction with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and persistent scatterers (PS) high-resolution multi-temporal interferometry (InSAR) techniques to provide maps of line-of-sight displacements. The satellite-based remote sensing results were combined with results derived from classical methodologies (i.e., diachronic cartography) and field research to study possible trends in developments over former clay pits, landfill excavation sites, and industrial parks. The ground displacement trend patterns were analysed using several linear and nonlinear models, and techniques. Trends based on the estimated ground displacement are characterised by long-term memory, indicated by low noise Hurst exponents, which in the long-term form interesting attractors. We hypothesize these attractors to be tectonic stress fields generated by transpressional movements. PMID:28252103

Long-term ground deformation patterns of Bucharest using multi-temporal InSAR and multivariate dynamic analyses: a possible transpressional system?

PubMed

Armaş, Iuliana; Mendes, Diana A; Popa, Răzvan-Gabriel; Gheorghe, Mihaela; Popovici, Diana

2017-03-02

The aim of this exploratory research is to capture spatial evolution patterns in the Bucharest metropolitan area using sets of single polarised synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and multi-temporal radar interferometry. Three sets of SAR data acquired during the years 1992-2010 from ERS-1/-2 and ENVISAT, and 2011-2014 from TerraSAR-X satellites were used in conjunction with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and persistent scatterers (PS) high-resolution multi-temporal interferometry (InSAR) techniques to provide maps of line-of-sight displacements. The satellite-based remote sensing results were combined with results derived from classical methodologies (i.e., diachronic cartography) and field research to study possible trends in developments over former clay pits, landfill excavation sites, and industrial parks. The ground displacement trend patterns were analysed using several linear and nonlinear models, and techniques. Trends based on the estimated ground displacement are characterised by long-term memory, indicated by low noise Hurst exponents, which in the long-term form interesting attractors. We hypothesize these attractors to be tectonic stress fields generated by transpressional movements.

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater-surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity.

EFFECTS OF LASER RADIATION ON MATTER. LASER PLASMA: Spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a barrier (analytic model)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedyushin, B. T.

1992-01-01

The concepts developed earlier are used to propose a simple analytic model describing the spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load (pressure, impulse) resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a planar barrier surrounded by air. The correctness of the model is supported by a comparison with experimental results.

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

[Predictive model based multimetric index of macroinvertebrates for river health assessment].

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Yu, Hai Yan; Zhang, Ji Wei; Wang, Bei Xin; Chen, Qiu Wen

2017-06-18

Improving the stability of integrity of biotic index (IBI; i.e., multi-metric indices, MMI) across temporal and spatial scales is one of the most important issues in water ecosystem integrity bioassessment and water environment management. Using datasets of field-based macroinvertebrate and physicochemical variables and GIS-based natural predictors (e.g., geomorphology and climate) and land use variables collected at 227 river sites from 2004 to 2011 across the Zhejiang Province, China, we used random forests (RF) to adjust the effects of natural variations at temporal and spatial scales on macroinvertebrate metrics. We then developed natural variations adjusted (predictive) and unadjusted (null) MMIs and compared performance between them. The core me-trics selected for predictive and null MMIs were different from each other, and natural variations within core metrics in predictive MMI explained by RF models ranged between 11.4% and 61.2%. The predictive MMI was more precise and accurate, but less responsive and sensitive than null MMI. The multivariate nearest-neighbor test determined that 9 test sites and 1 most degraded site were flagged outside of the environmental space of the reference site network. We found that combination of predictive MMI developed by using predictive model and the nearest-neighbor test performed best and decreased risks of inferring type I (designating a water body as being in poor biological condition, when it was actually in good condition) and type II (designating a water body as being in good biological condition, when it was actually in poor condition) errors. Our results provided an effective method to improve the stability and performance of integrity of biotic index.

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2018-02-09

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

A Hybrid Model for Spatially and Temporally Resolved Ozone Exposures in the Continental United States

PubMed Central

Di, Qian; Rowland, Sebastian; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Ground-level ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, which exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability in its concentration level. Existing modeling approaches for ground-level ozone include chemical transport models, land-use regression, Kriging, and data fusion of chemical transport models with monitoring data. Each of these methods has both strengths and weaknesses. Combining those complementary approaches could improve model performance. Meanwhile, satellite-based total column ozone, combined with ozone vertical profile, is another potential input. We propose a hybrid model that integrates the above variables to achieve spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments for ground-level ozone. We used a neural network for its capacity to model interactions and nonlinearity. Convolutional layers, which use convolution kernels to aggregate nearby information, were added to the neural network to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We trained the model with AQS 8-hour daily maximum ozone in the continental United States from 2000 to 2012 and tested it with left out monitoring sites. Cross-validated R2 on the left out monitoring sites ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 (mean 0.76) for predictions on 1 km×1 km grid cells, which indicates good model performance. Model performance remains good even at low ozone concentrations. The prediction results facilitate epidemiological studies to assess the health effect of ozone in the long term and the short term. PMID:27332675

Analysis of spatial-temporal patterns of water table change as a tool for conjunctive water management in the Upper Central Plain of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasconcelos, Vitor Vieira; Koontanakulvong, Sucharit; Suthidhummajit, Chokchai; Junior, Paulo Pereira Martins; Hadad, Renato Moreira

2017-03-01

A sustainable strategy for conjunctive water management must include information on the temporal and spatial availability of this natural resource. Because of water shortages in the dry seasons, farmers on the Upper Plain of the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand, are increasingly using groundwater to meet their irrigation needs. To evaluate the possibilities of conjunctive water management in the area, the spatial-temporal changes in the water table of the Younger Terrace Aquifer were investigated. First, a regional geomorphological map based on field surveys, remote sensing and previous environmental studies was developed. Then, the well data were analyzed in relation to rainfall, streamflow, yield and pumpage, and the data were interpolated using geostatistical techniques. The results were analyzed via integrated zoning based on color theory as applied to multivariate visualization. The analysis results indicate areas that would be more suitable for groundwater extraction in a conjunctive management framework with regard to the natural hydrogeological processes and the effects of human interaction. The kriging results were compared with the geomorphological map, and the geomorphological areas exhibit distinct hydrogeological patterns. The western fans exhibit the best potential for the expansion of conjunctive use, whereas the borders of the northern fans exhibit the lowest potential.

DEFINITION OF MULTIVARIATE GEOCHEMICAL ASSOCIATIONS WITH POLYMETALLIC MINERAL OCCURRENCES USING A SPATIALLY DEPENDENT CLUSTERING TECHNIQUE AND RASTERIZED STREAM SEDIMENT DATA - AN ALASKAN EXAMPLE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenson, Susan K.; Trautwein, C.M.

1984-01-01

The application of an unsupervised, spatially dependent clustering technique (AMOEBA) to interpolated raster arrays of stream sediment data has been found to provide useful multivariate geochemical associations for modeling regional polymetallic resource potential. The technique is based on three assumptions regarding the compositional and spatial relationships of stream sediment data and their regional significance. These assumptions are: (1) compositionally separable classes exist and can be statistically distinguished; (2) the classification of multivariate data should minimize the pair probability of misclustering to establish useful compositional associations; and (3) a compositionally defined class represented by three or more contiguous cells within an array is a more important descriptor of a terrane than a class represented by spatial outliers.

Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.

2017-12-01

The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow­-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of the plume in two-dimensional problems.

Visual Processing of Object Velocity and Acceleration

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-13

more recently, Dr. Grzywacz’s applications of filtering models to the psychophysics of speed discrimination; 3) the McKee-Welch studies on the...population of spatio-temporally oriented filters to encode velocity. Dr. Grzywacz has attempted to reconcile his model with a variety of psychophysical...by many authors.23 In these models , the image is tectors have different sizes and spatial positions, but they all spatially and temporally filtered

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

A Deep Learning Architecture for Temporal Sleep Stage Classification Using Multivariate and Multimodal Time Series.

PubMed

Chambon, Stanislas; Galtier, Mathieu N; Arnal, Pierrick J; Wainrib, Gilles; Gramfort, Alexandre

2018-04-01

Sleep stage classification constitutes an important preliminary exam in the diagnosis of sleep disorders. It is traditionally performed by a sleep expert who assigns to each 30 s of the signal of a sleep stage, based on the visual inspection of signals such as electroencephalograms (EEGs), electrooculograms (EOGs), electrocardiograms, and electromyograms (EMGs). We introduce here the first deep learning approach for sleep stage classification that learns end-to-end without computing spectrograms or extracting handcrafted features, that exploits all multivariate and multimodal polysomnography (PSG) signals (EEG, EMG, and EOG), and that can exploit the temporal context of each 30-s window of data. For each modality, the first layer learns linear spatial filters that exploit the array of sensors to increase the signal-to-noise ratio, and the last layer feeds the learnt representation to a softmax classifier. Our model is compared to alternative automatic approaches based on convolutional networks or decisions trees. Results obtained on 61 publicly available PSG records with up to 20 EEG channels demonstrate that our network architecture yields the state-of-the-art performance. Our study reveals a number of insights on the spatiotemporal distribution of the signal of interest: a good tradeoff for optimal classification performance measured with balanced accuracy is to use 6 EEG with 2 EOG (left and right) and 3 EMG chin channels. Also exploiting 1 min of data before and after each data segment offers the strongest improvement when a limited number of channels are available. As sleep experts, our system exploits the multivariate and multimodal nature of PSG signals in order to deliver the state-of-the-art classification performance with a small computational cost.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

2013-01-01

Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

Model of human visual-motion sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, A. B.; Ahumada, A. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

A model of how humans sense the velocity of moving images is proposed. The model exploits constraints provided by human psychophysics, notably that motion-sensing elements appear tuned for two-dimensional spatial frequency, and by the frequency spectrum of a moving image, namely, that its support lies in the plane in which the temporal frequency equals the dot product of the spatial frequency and the image velocity. The first stage of the model is a set of spatial-frequency-tuned, direction-selective linear sensors. The temporal frequency of the response of each sensor is shown to encode the component of the image velocity in the sensor direction. At the second stage, these components are resolved in order to measure the velocity of image motion at each of a number of spatial locations and spatial frequencies. The model has been applied to several illustrative examples, including apparent motion, coherent gratings, and natural image sequences. The model agrees qualitatively with human perception.

A power analysis for multivariate tests of temporal trend in species composition.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Dinger, Eric C; Sarr, Daniel

2011-10-01

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.

Spatio-temporal modelling for assessing air pollution in Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolis, Orietta; Camaño, Christian; Mařın, Julio C.; Sahu, Sujit K.

2017-01-01

In this work, we propose a space-time approach for studying the PM2.5 concentration in the city of Santiago de Chile. In particular, we apply the autoregressive hierarchical model proposed by [1] using the PM2.5 observations collected by a monitoring network as a response variable and numerical weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as covariate together with spatial and temporal (periodic) components. The approach is able to provide short-term spatio-temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentrations on a fine spatial grid (at 1km × 1km horizontal resolution.)

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2013-08-01

The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

2018-01-01

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in Aboveground Biomass within the Acadian New England Forests using the complete Landsat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbride, J. B.; Fraver, S.; Ayrey, E.; Weiskittel, A.; Braaten, J.; Hughes, J. M.; Hayes, D. J.

2017-12-01

Forests within the New England states and Canadian Maritime provinces, here described as the Acadian New England (ANE) forests, have undergone substantial disturbances due to insect, fire, and anthropogenic factors. Through repeated satellite observations captures by USGS's Landsat program, 45 years of disturbance information can be incorporated into modeling efforts to better understand the spatial and temporal trends in forest above ground biomass (AGB). Using Google's Earth Engine, annual mosaics were developed for the ANE study area and then disturbance and recovery metrics were developed using the temporal segmentation algorithm VeRDET. Normalization procedures were developed to incorporate the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972 - 1985) data alongside the modern era of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1984-2013), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 1999 - present), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2013- present) data products. This has enabled the creation of a dataset with an unprecedented spatial and temporal view of forest landscape change. Model training was performed using was the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and New Brunswick Permanent Sample Plot data datasets. Modeling was performed using parametric techniques such as mixed effects models and non-parametric techniques such as k-NN imputation and generalized boosted regression. We compare the biomass estimate and model accuracy to other inventory and modeling studies produced within this study area. The spatial and temporal patterns of stock changes are analyzed against resource policy, land ownership changes, and forest management.

Fully coupled approach to modeling shallow water flow, sediment transport, and bed evolution in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuangcai; Duffy, Christopher J.

2011-03-01

Our ability to predict complex environmental fluid flow and transport hinges on accurate and efficient simulations of multiple physical phenomenon operating simultaneously over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, including overbank floods, coastal storm surge events, drying and wetting bed conditions, and simultaneous bed form evolution. This research implements a fully coupled strategy for solving shallow water hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological bed evolution in rivers and floodplains (PIHM_Hydro) and applies the model to field and laboratory experiments that cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The model uses a standard upwind finite volume method and Roe's approximate Riemann solver for unstructured grids. A multidimensional linear reconstruction and slope limiter are implemented, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Model efficiency and stability are treated using an explicit-implicit method for temporal discretization with operator splitting. Laboratory-and field-scale experiments were compiled where coupled processes across a range of scales were observed and where higher-order spatial and temporal accuracy might be needed for accurate and efficient solutions. These experiments demonstrate the ability of the fully coupled strategy in capturing dynamics of field-scale flood waves and small-scale drying-wetting processes.

Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy by multimodal multinomial hippocampal response-driven models.

PubMed

Nazem-Zadeh, Mohammad-Reza; Elisevich, Kost V; Schwalb, Jason M; Bagher-Ebadian, Hassan; Mahmoudi, Fariborz; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2014-12-15

Multiple modalities are used in determining laterality in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE). It is unclear how much different imaging modalities should be weighted in decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop response-driven multimodal multinomial models for lateralization of epileptogenicity in mTLE patients based upon imaging features in order to maximize the accuracy of noninvasive studies. The volumes, means and standard deviations of FLAIR intensity and means of normalized ictal-interictal SPECT intensity of the left and right hippocampi were extracted from preoperative images of a retrospective cohort of 45 mTLE patients with Engel class I surgical outcomes, as well as images of a cohort of 20 control, nonepileptic subjects. Using multinomial logistic function regression, the parameters of various univariate and multivariate models were estimated. Based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) theorem, response models were developed as compositions of independent univariate models. A BMA model composed of posterior probabilities of univariate response models of hippocampal volumes, means and standard deviations of FLAIR intensity, and means of SPECT intensity with the estimated weighting coefficients of 0.28, 0.32, 0.09, and 0.31, respectively, as well as a multivariate response model incorporating all mentioned attributes, demonstrated complete reliability by achieving a probability of detection of one with no false alarms to establish proper laterality in all mTLE patients. The proposed multinomial multivariate response-driven model provides a reliable lateralization of mesial temporal epileptogenicity including those patients who require phase II assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonrandom community assembly and high temporal turnover promote regional coexistence in tropics but not temperate zone.

PubMed

Freestone, Amy L; Inouye, Brian D

2015-01-01

A persistent challenge for ecologists is understanding the ecological mechanisms that maintain global patterns of biodiversity, particularly the latitudinal diversity gradient of peak species richness in the tropics. Spatial and temporal variation in community composition contribute to these patterns of biodiversity, but how this variation and its underlying processes change across latitude remains unresolved. Using a model system of sessile marine invertebrates across 25 degrees of latitude, from the temperate zone to the tropics, we tested the prediction that spatial and temporal patterns of taxonomic richness and composition, and the community assembly processes underlying these patterns, will differ across latitude. Specifically, we predicted that high beta diversity (spatial variation in composition) and high temporal turnover contribute to the high species richness of the tropics. Using a standardized experimental approach that controls for several confounding factors that hinder interpretation of prior studies, we present results that support our predictions. In the temperate zone, communities were more similar across spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers and temporal scales up to one year than at lower latitudes. Since the patterns at northern latitudes were congruent with a null model, stochastic assembly processes are implicated. In contrast, the communities in the tropics were a dynamic spatial and temporal mosaic, with low similarity even across small spatial scales and high temporal turnover at both local and regional scales. Unlike the temperate zone, deterministic community assembly processes such as predation likely contributed to the high beta diversity in the tropics. Our results suggest that community assembly processes and temporal dynamics vary across latitude and help structure and maintain latitudinal patterns of diversity.

Dissecting the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets using the partial triadic analysis.

PubMed

Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Nardin, Maxime; Godefroid, Martin; Ruiz-Diaz, Manuela; Sergent, Anne-Sophie; Martinez-Meier, Alejandro; Pâques, Luc; Rozenberg, Philippe

2014-01-01

Tree-ring datasets are used in a variety of circumstances, including archeology, climatology, forest ecology, and wood technology. These data are based on microdensity profiles and consist of a set of tree-ring descriptors, such as ring width or early/latewood density, measured for a set of individual trees. Because successive rings correspond to successive years, the resulting dataset is a ring variables × trees × time datacube. Multivariate statistical analyses, such as principal component analysis, have been widely used for extracting worthwhile information from ring datasets, but they typically address two-way matrices, such as ring variables × trees or ring variables × time. Here, we explore the potential of the partial triadic analysis (PTA), a multivariate method dedicated to the analysis of three-way datasets, to apprehend the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets. We analyzed a set of 11 tree-ring descriptors measured in 149 georeferenced individuals of European larch (Larix decidua Miller) during the period of 1967-2007. The processing of densitometry profiles led to a set of ring descriptors for each tree and for each year from 1967-2007. The resulting three-way data table was subjected to two distinct analyses in order to explore i) the temporal evolution of spatial structures and ii) the spatial structure of temporal dynamics. We report the presence of a spatial structure common to the different years, highlighting the inter-individual variability of the ring descriptors at the stand scale. We found a temporal trajectory common to the trees that could be separated into a high and low frequency signal, corresponding to inter-annual variations possibly related to defoliation events and a long-term trend possibly related to climate change. We conclude that PTA is a powerful tool to unravel and hierarchize the different sources of variation within tree-ring datasets.

Temporal consistency of spatial pattern in growth of the mussel, Mytilus edulis: Implications for predictive modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergström, Per; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

2013-10-01

Human pressures on coastal seas are increasing and methods for sustainable management, including spatial planning and mitigative actions, are therefore needed. In coastal areas worldwide, the development of mussel farming as an economically and ecologically sustainable industry requires geographic information on the growth and potential production capacity. In practice this means that coherent maps of temporally stable spatial patterns of growth need to be available in the planning process and that maps need to be based on mechanistic or empirical models. Therefore, as a first step towards development of models of growth, we assessed empirically the fundamental requirement that there are temporally consistent spatial patterns of growth in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis. Using a pilot study we designed and dimensioned a transplant experiment, where the spatial consistency in the growth of mussels was evaluated at two resolutions. We found strong temporal and scale-dependent spatial variability in growth but patterns suggested that spatial patterns were uncoupled between growth of shell and that of soft tissue. Spatial patterns of shell growth were complex and largely inconsistent among years. Importantly, however, the growth of soft tissue was qualitatively consistent among years at the scale of km. The results suggest that processes affecting the whole coastal area cause substantial differences in growth of soft tissue among years but that factors varying at the scale of km create strong and persistent spatial patterns of growth, with a potential doubling of productivity by identifying the most suitable locations. We conclude that the observed spatial consistency provides a basis for further development of predictive modelling and mapping of soft tissue growth in these coastal areas. Potential causes of observed patterns, consequences for mussel-farming as a tool for mitigating eutrophication, aspects of precision of modelling and sampling of mussel growth as well as ecological functions in general are discussed.

Leveraging Mechanism Simplicity and Strategic Averaging to Identify Signals from Highly Heterogeneous Spatial and Temporal Ozone Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown-Steiner, B.; Selin, N. E.; Prinn, R. G.; Monier, E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2017-12-01

We summarize two methods to aid in the identification of ozone signals from underlying spatially and temporally heterogeneous data in order to help research communities avoid the sometimes burdensome computational costs of high-resolution high-complexity models. The first method utilizes simplified chemical mechanisms (a Reduced Hydrocarbon Mechanism and a Superfast Mechanism) alongside a more complex mechanism (MOZART-4) within CESM CAM-Chem to extend the number of simulated meteorological years (or add additional members to an ensemble) for a given modeling problem. The Reduced Hydrocarbon mechanism is twice as fast, and the Superfast mechanism is three times faster than the MOZART-4 mechanism. We show that simplified chemical mechanisms are largely capable of simulating surface ozone across the globe as well as the more complex chemical mechanisms, and where they are not capable, a simple standardized anomaly emulation approach can correct for their inadequacies. The second method uses strategic averaging over both temporal and spatial scales to filter out the highly heterogeneous noise that underlies ozone observations and simulations. This method allows for a selection of temporal and spatial averaging scales that match a particular signal strength (between 0.5 and 5 ppbv), and enables the identification of regions where an ozone signal can rise above the ozone noise over a given region and a given period of time. In conjunction, these two methods can be used to "scale down" chemical mechanism complexity and quantitatively determine spatial and temporal scales that could enable research communities to utilize simplified representations of atmospheric chemistry and thereby maximize their productivity and efficiency given computational constraints. While this framework is here applied to ozone data, it could also be applied to a broad range of geospatial data sets (observed or modeled) that have spatial and temporal coverage.

Performance of the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System over the Lower Colorado River, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayabil, H. K.; Sharif, H. O.; Fares, A.; Awal, R.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Recently observed increases in intensities and frequencies of climate extremes (e.g., floods, dam failure, and overtopping of river banks) necessitate the development of effective disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Hydrologic models can be useful tools in predicting such events at different spatial and temporal scales. However, accuracy and prediction capability of such models are often constrained by the availability of high-quality representative hydro-meteorological data (e.g., precipitation) that are required to calibrate and validate such models. Improved technologies and products such as the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system that allows gathering and transmission of vast meteorological data have been developed to provide such data needs. While the MRMS data are available with high spatial and temporal resolutions (1 km and 15 min, respectively), its accuracy in estimating precipitation is yet to be fully investigated. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the MRMS system in effectively capturing precipitation over the Lower Colorado River, Texas using observations from a dense rain gauge network. In addition, effects of spatial and temporal aggregation scales on the performance of the MRMS system were evaluated. Point scale comparisons were made at 215 gauging locations using rain gauges and MRMS data from May 2015. Moreover, the effects of temporal and spatial data aggregation scales (30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, and 120 min) and (4 to 50 km), respectively on the performance of the MRMS system were tested. Overall, the MRMS system (at 15 min temporal resolution) captured precipitation reasonably well, with an average R2 value of 0.65 and RMSE of 0.5 mm. In addition, spatial and temporal data aggregations resulted in increases in R2 values. However, reduction in RMSE was achieved only with an increase in spatial aggregations.

Encoding of Spatio-Temporal Input Characteristics by a CA1 Pyramidal Neuron Model

PubMed Central

Pissadaki, Eleftheria Kyriaki; Sidiropoulou, Kyriaki; Reczko, Martin; Poirazi, Panayiota

2010-01-01

The in vivo activity of CA1 pyramidal neurons alternates between regular spiking and bursting, but how these changes affect information processing remains unclear. Using a detailed CA1 pyramidal neuron model, we investigate how timing and spatial arrangement variations in synaptic inputs to the distal and proximal dendritic layers influence the information content of model responses. We find that the temporal delay between activation of the two layers acts as a switch between excitability modes: short delays induce bursting while long delays decrease firing. For long delays, the average firing frequency of the model response discriminates spatially clustered from diffused inputs to the distal dendritic tree. For short delays, the onset latency and inter-spike-interval succession of model responses can accurately classify input signals as temporally close or distant and spatially clustered or diffused across different stimulation protocols. These findings suggest that a CA1 pyramidal neuron may be capable of encoding and transmitting presynaptic spatiotemporal information about the activity of the entorhinal cortex-hippocampal network to higher brain regions via the selective use of either a temporal or a rate code. PMID:21187899

On the interpretation of weight vectors of linear models in multivariate neuroimaging.

PubMed

Haufe, Stefan; Meinecke, Frank; Görgen, Kai; Dähne, Sven; Haynes, John-Dylan; Blankertz, Benjamin; Bießmann, Felix

2014-02-15

The increase in spatiotemporal resolution of neuroimaging devices is accompanied by a trend towards more powerful multivariate analysis methods. Often it is desired to interpret the outcome of these methods with respect to the cognitive processes under study. Here we discuss which methods allow for such interpretations, and provide guidelines for choosing an appropriate analysis for a given experimental goal: For a surgeon who needs to decide where to remove brain tissue it is most important to determine the origin of cognitive functions and associated neural processes. In contrast, when communicating with paralyzed or comatose patients via brain-computer interfaces, it is most important to accurately extract the neural processes specific to a certain mental state. These equally important but complementary objectives require different analysis methods. Determining the origin of neural processes in time or space from the parameters of a data-driven model requires what we call a forward model of the data; such a model explains how the measured data was generated from the neural sources. Examples are general linear models (GLMs). Methods for the extraction of neural information from data can be considered as backward models, as they attempt to reverse the data generating process. Examples are multivariate classifiers. Here we demonstrate that the parameters of forward models are neurophysiologically interpretable in the sense that significant nonzero weights are only observed at channels the activity of which is related to the brain process under study. In contrast, the interpretation of backward model parameters can lead to wrong conclusions regarding the spatial or temporal origin of the neural signals of interest, since significant nonzero weights may also be observed at channels the activity of which is statistically independent of the brain process under study. As a remedy for the linear case, we propose a procedure for transforming backward models into forward models. This procedure enables the neurophysiological interpretation of the parameters of linear backward models. We hope that this work raises awareness for an often encountered problem and provides a theoretical basis for conducting better interpretable multivariate neuroimaging analyses. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA

Treesearch

Zachery A. Holden; Michael A. Crimmins; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell

2010-01-01

Accurate, fine spatial resolution predictions of surface air temperatures are critical for understanding many hydrologic and ecological processes. This study examines the spatial and temporal variability in nocturnal air temperatures across a mountainous region of Northern Idaho. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to a network of 70 Hobo temperature...

Mapping working memory retrieval in space and in time: A combined electroencephalography and electrocorticography approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiong; van Vugt, Marieke; Borst, Jelmer P; Anderson, John R

2018-07-01

In this study, we investigated the time course and neural correlates of the retrieval process underlying visual working memory. We made use of a rare dataset in which the same task was recorded using both scalp electroencephalography (EEG) and Electrocorticography (ECoG), respectively. This allowed us to examine with great spatial and temporal detail how the retrieval process works, and in particular how the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is involved. In each trial, participants judged whether a probe face had been among a set of recently studied faces. With a method that combines hidden semi-Markov models and multivariate pattern analysis, the neural signal was decomposed into a sequence of latent cognitive stages with information about their durations on a trial-by-trial basis. Analyzed separately, EEG and ECoG data yielded converging results on discovered stages and their interpretation, which reflected 1) a brief pre-attention stage, 2) encoding the stimulus, 3) retrieving the studied set, and 4) making a decision. Combining these stages with the high spatial resolution of ECoG suggested that activity in the temporal cortex reflected item familiarity in the retrieval stage; and that once retrieval is complete, there is active maintenance of the studied face set in the decision stage in the MTL. During this same period, the frontal cortex guides the decision by means of theta coupling with the MTL. These observations generalize previous findings on the role of MTL theta from long-term memory tasks to short-term memory tasks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

PubMed

Lal, Aparna; Ikeda, Takayoshi; French, Nigel; Baker, Michael G; Hales, Simon

2013-01-01

Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β =  -0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher. Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.

Task relevance modulates the behavioural and neural effects of sensory predictions

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Nobre, Anna C.

2017-01-01

The brain is thought to generate internal predictions to optimize behaviour. However, it is unclear whether predictions signalling is an automatic brain function or depends on task demands. Here, we manipulated the spatial/temporal predictability of visual targets, and the relevance of spatial/temporal information provided by auditory cues. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure participants’ brain activity during task performance. Task relevance modulated the influence of predictions on behaviour: spatial/temporal predictability improved spatial/temporal discrimination accuracy, but not vice versa. To explain these effects, we used behavioural responses to estimate subjective predictions under an ideal-observer model. Model-based time-series of predictions and prediction errors (PEs) were associated with dissociable neural responses: predictions correlated with cue-induced beta-band activity in auditory regions and alpha-band activity in visual regions, while stimulus-bound PEs correlated with gamma-band activity in posterior regions. Crucially, task relevance modulated these spectral correlates, suggesting that current goals influence PE and prediction signalling. PMID:29206225

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

The medial temporal memory system in Down syndrome: Translating animal models of hippocampal compromise.

PubMed

Clark, Caron A C; Fernandez, Fabian; Sakhon, Stella; Spanò, Goffredina; Edgin, Jamie O

2017-06-01

Recent studies have highlighted the dentate gyrus as a region of increased vulnerability in mouse models of Down syndrome (DS). It is unclear to what extent these findings are reflected in the memory profile of people with the condition. We developed a series of novel tasks to probe distinct medial temporal functions in children and young adults with DS, including object, spatial, and temporal order memory. Relative to mental age-matched controls (n = 45), individuals with DS (n = 28) were unimpaired on subtests involving short-term object or configural recall that was divorced from spatial or temporal contexts. By contrast, the DS group had difficulty recalling spatial locations when contextual information was salient and recalling the order in which objects were serially presented. Results are consistent with dysfunction of spatial and temporal contextual pattern separation abilities in individuals with DS, mediated by the hippocampus, including the dentate gyrus. Amidst increasing calls to bridge human and animal work, the memory profile demonstrated here in humans with DS is strikingly similar to that of the Ts65Dn mouse model of DS. The study highlights the trisynaptic circuit as a potentially fruitful intervention target to mitigate cognitive impairments associated with DS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Remote sensing of forest dynamics and land use in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, Michael Paul

The rich, vast Amazonian ecosystem is directly and indirectly threatened by human activities; remote sensing serves as an essential tool for monitoring, understanding and mitigating these threats. A multi-faceted body of work is described here, addressing three major issues that employ and advance remote sensing techniques for the study of Amazonia and other tropical rainforest regions. In Chapter 2, canopy reflectance modeling and satellite observations were used to quantify the effect of epiphylls on remote sensing of humid forests. Modeling simulations demonstrated sensitivity of canopy-level near infrared and green reflectance to epiphylls on leaves. Time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data corroborated the modeling results, suggesting a degree of coupling between epiphyll cover and vegetation indices which must be accounted for when using optical remote sensing in humid forests. In Chapter 4, 11 years (2000--2010) of MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data covering the entire Amazon basin were used to ascertain the role of heat stress during droughts in 2005 and 2010. Preliminary accuracy assessments showed that LST data provided reasonably accurate estimates of daytime air temperatures (RMSE = 1.45°C; Chapter 3). There were moderate to strong correlations between LST-based air temperature estimates and tower measurements (mean r = 0.64), illustrating a sensitivity to temporal variability. During both droughts, MODIS LST data detected anomalously high daytime and nighttime canopy temperatures throughout drought-affected regions. Multivariate linear models of LST and precipitation anomalies explained 65.1% of the variability in forest biomass losses, as determined from a wide network of forest inventory plots. These results suggest that models should incorporate both heat and moisture to predict drought effects on tropical forests. In Chapter 5, I performed high spatial and temporal resolution modeling of carbon stocks and fluxes in the state of Rondonia, Brazil for the period 1985--2009. Based on this analysis, Rondonia contributed ˜4% of pan-tropical humid forest deforestation emissions while carbon uptake by secondary forest was negligible due to limited spatial extent and high turnover rates. Spatial analysis of land cover change demonstrated the necessity for fine resolution carbon monitoring in tropical regions dominated by non-mechanized, smallholder land uses.

Spatial-temporal modeling of malware propagation in networks.

PubMed

Chen, Zesheng; Ji, Chuanyi

2005-09-01

Network security is an important task of network management. One threat to network security is malware (malicious software) propagation. One type of malware is called topological scanning that spreads based on topology information. The focus of this work is on modeling the spread of topological malwares, which is important for understanding their potential damages, and for developing countermeasures to protect the network infrastructure. Our model is motivated by probabilistic graphs, which have been widely investigated in machine learning. We first use a graphical representation to abstract the propagation of malwares that employ different scanning methods. We then use a spatial-temporal random process to describe the statistical dependence of malware propagation in arbitrary topologies. As the spatial dependence is particularly difficult to characterize, the problem becomes how to use simple (i.e., biased) models to approximate the spatially dependent process. In particular, we propose the independent model and the Markov model as simple approximations. We conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations on large networks using both real measurements and synthesized topologies to test the performance of the proposed models. Our results show that the independent model can capture temporal dependence and detailed topology information and, thus, outperforms the previous models, whereas the Markov model incorporates a certain spatial dependence and, thus, achieves a greater accuracy in characterizing both transient and equilibrium behaviors of malware propagation.

Biomechanics meets the ecological niche: the importance of temporal data resolution.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Matzelle, Allison; Helmuth, Brian

2012-03-15

The emerging field of mechanistic niche modelling aims to link the functional traits of organisms to their environments to predict survival, reproduction, distribution and abundance. This approach has great potential to increase our understanding of the impacts of environmental change on individuals, populations and communities by providing functional connections between physiological and ecological response to increasingly available spatial environmental data. By their nature, such mechanistic models are more data intensive in comparison with the more widely applied correlative approaches but can potentially provide more spatially and temporally explicit predictions, which are often needed by decision makers. A poorly explored issue in this context is the appropriate level of temporal resolution of input data required for these models, and specifically the error in predictions that can be incurred through the use of temporally averaged data. Here, we review how biomechanical principles from heat-transfer and metabolic theory are currently being used as foundations for mechanistic niche models and consider the consequences of different temporal resolutions of environmental data for modelling the niche of a behaviourally thermoregulating terrestrial lizard. We show that fine-scale temporal resolution (daily) data can be crucial for unbiased inference of climatic impacts on survival, growth and reproduction. This is especially so for species with little capacity for behavioural buffering, because of behavioural or habitat constraints, and for detecting temporal trends. However, coarser-resolution data (long-term monthly averages) can be appropriate for mechanistic studies of climatic constraints on distribution and abundance limits in thermoregulating species at broad spatial scales.

Improving spatio-temporal benefit transfers for pest control by generalist predators in cotton in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; McCracken, Gary F.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loomis, John B.; Semmens, Darius J.; Russell, Amy L.; Sansone, Chris; LaSharr, Kelsie; Cryan, Paul; Reynoso, Claudia; Medellin, Rodrigo A.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

Given rapid changes in agricultural practice, it is critical to understand how alterations in ecological, technological, and economic conditions over time and space impact ecosystem services in agroecosystems. Here, we present a benefit transfer approach to quantify cotton pest-control services provided by a generalist predator, the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), in the southwestern United States. We show that pest-control estimates derived using (1) a compound spatial–temporal model – which incorporates spatial and temporal variability in crop pest-control service values – are likely to exhibit less error than those derived using (2) a simple-spatial model (i.e., a model that extrapolates values derived for one area directly, without adjustment, to other areas) or (3) a simple-temporal model (i.e., a model that extrapolates data from a few points in time over longer time periods). Using our compound spatial–temporal approach, the annualized pest-control value was \\$12.2 million, in contrast to an estimate of \\$70.1 million (5.7 times greater), obtained from the simple-spatial approach. Using estimates from one year (simple-temporal approach) revealed large value differences (0.4 times smaller to 2 times greater). Finally, we present a detailed protocol for valuing pest-control services, which can be used to develop robust pest-control transfer functions for generalist predators in agroecosystems.

Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest: Methodology and Potential Applications

PubMed Central

Scarpino, Samuel V.; Jansen, Patrick A.; Garzon-Lopez, Carol X.; Winkelhagen, Annemarie J. S.; Bohlman, Stephanie A.; Walsh, Peter D.

2010-01-01

Background The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we demonstrate how advances in statistics permit the combination of sparse ground sampling with remote sensing imagery to generate biological relevant, spatially and temporally explicit distributions of food resources. We illustrate our procedure by creating a detailed simulation model of fruit production patterns for Dipteryx oleifera, a keystone tree species, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Methodology and Principal Findings Aerial photographs providing GPS positions for large, canopy trees, the complete census of a 50-ha and 25-ha area, diameter at breast height data from haphazardly sampled trees and long-term phenology data from six trees were used to fit 1) a point process model of tree spatial distribution and 2) a generalized linear mixed-effect model of temporal variation of fruit production. The fitted parameters from these models are then used to create a stochastic simulation model which incorporates spatio-temporal variations of D. oleifera fruit availability on BCI. Conclusions and Significance We present a framework that can provide a statistical characterization of the habitat that can be included in agent-based models of animal movements. When environmental heterogeneity cannot be exhaustively mapped, this approach can be a powerful alternative. The results of our model on the spatio-temporal variation in D. oleifera fruit availability will be used to understand behavioral and movement patterns of several species on BCI. PMID:21124927

Spatio-temporal variability of hydro-chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Gulf of Mannar Marine Biosphere Reserve (GoMMBR), South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kathiravan, K.; Natesan, Usha; Vishnunath, R.

2017-03-01

The intention of this study was to appraise the spatial and temporal variations in the physico-chemical parameters of coastal waters of Rameswaram Island, Gulf of Mannar Marine Biosphere Reserve, south India, using multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis, factor analysis and principal component analysis. Spatio-temporal variations among the physico-chemical parameters are observed in the coastal waters of Gulf of Mannar, especially during northeast and post monsoon seasons. It is inferred that the high loadings of pH, temperature, suspended particulate matter, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll a, nutrient species of nitrogen and phosphorus strongly determine the discrimination of coastal water quality. Results highlight the important role of monsoonal variations to determine the coastal water quality around Rameswaram Island.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J.

2016-06-01

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [18F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [11C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions.

PubMed

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J

2016-06-21

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [(18)F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [(11)C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

Review of forest landscape models: types, methods, development and applications

Treesearch

Weimin Xi; Robert N. Coulson; Andrew G. Birt; Zong-Bo Shang; John D. Waldron; Charles W. Lafon; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Kier D. Klepzig

2009-01-01

Forest landscape models simulate forest change through time using spatially referenced data across a broad spatial scale (i.e. landscape scale) generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interactions between forest stands are a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatio-temporal processes such as...

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

Soil water content evaluation considering time-invariant spatial pattern and space-variant temporal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, W.; Si, B. C.

2013-10-01

Soil water content (SWC) varies in space and time. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil water content distribution using a statistical model. The model divides spatial SWC series into time-invariant spatial patterns, space-invariant temporal changes, and space- and time-dependent redistribution terms. The redistribution term is responsible for the temporal changes in spatial patterns of SWC. An empirical orthogonal function was used to separate the total variations of redistribution terms into the sum of the product of spatial structures (EOFs) and temporally-varying coefficients (ECs). Model performance was evaluated using SWC data of near-surface (0-0.2 m) and root-zone (0-1.0 m) from a Canadian Prairie landscape. Three significant EOFs were identified for redistribution term for both soil layers. EOF1 dominated the variations of redistribution terms and it resulted in more changes (recharge or discharge) in SWC at wetter locations. Depth to CaCO3 layer and organic carbon were the two most important controlling factors of EOF1, and together, they explained over 80% of the variations in EOF1. Weak correlation existed between either EOF2 or EOF3 and the observed factors. A reasonable prediction of SWC distribution was obtained with this model using cross validation. The model performed better in the root zone than in the near surface, and it outperformed conventional EOF method in case soil moisture deviated from the average conditions.

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks in Tanzania; 1930 to 2007

PubMed Central

Sindato, Calvin; Karimuribo, Esron D.; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Kivaria, Fredrick; Dautu, George; Bernard, Bett; Paweska, Janusz T.

2014-01-01

Background Rift Valley fever (RVF)-like disease was first reported in Tanzania more than eight decades ago and the last large outbreak of the disease occurred in 2006–07. This study investigates the spatial and temporal pattern of RVF outbreaks in Tanzania over the past 80 years in order to guide prevention and control strategies. Materials and Methods A retrospective study was carried out based on disease reporting data from Tanzania at district or village level. The data were sourced from the Ministries responsible for livestock and human health, Tanzania Meteorological Agency and research institutions involved in RVF surveillance and diagnosis. The spatial distribution of outbreaks was mapped using ArcGIS 10. The space-time permutation model was applied to identify clusters of cases, and a multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of outbreaks in the district. Principal Findings RVF outbreaks were reported between December and June in 1930, 1947, 1957, 1960, 1963, 1968, 1977–79, 1989, 1997–98 and 2006–07 in 39.2% of the districts in Tanzania. There was statistically significant spatio-temporal clustering of outbreaks. RVF occurrence was associated with the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 6.14, CI: 1.96, 19.28), total amount of rainfall of >405.4 mm (OR = 12.36, CI: 3.06, 49.88), soil texture (clay [OR = 8.76, CI: 2.52, 30.50], and loam [OR = 8.79, CI: 2.04, 37.82]). Conclusion/Significance RVF outbreaks were found to be distributed heterogeneously and transmission dynamics appeared to vary between areas. The sequence of outbreak waves, continuously cover more parts of the country. Whenever infection has been introduced into an area, it is likely to be involved in future outbreaks. The cases were more likely to be reported from the eastern Rift Valley than from the western Rift Valley ecosystem and from areas with clay and loam rather than sandy soil texture. PMID:24586433

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

An Optimization Model for Scheduling Problems with Two-Dimensional Spatial Resource Constraint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Christopher; Rabadi, Ghaith

2010-01-01

Traditional scheduling problems involve determining temporal assignments for a set of jobs in order to optimize some objective. Some scheduling problems also require the use of limited resources, which adds another dimension of complexity. In this paper we introduce a spatial resource-constrained scheduling problem that can arise in assembly, warehousing, cross-docking, inventory management, and other areas of logistics and supply chain management. This scheduling problem involves a twodimensional rectangular area as a limited resource. Each job, in addition to having temporal requirements, has a width and a height and utilizes a certain amount of space inside the area. We propose an optimization model for scheduling the jobs while respecting all temporal and spatial constraints.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

2013-01-01

“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Jackson, Stephen T; Ferrier, Simon

2013-06-04

"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Non-Gaussian spatiotemporal simulation of multisite daily precipitation: downscaling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, M. A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Chebana, F.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic regression approaches for downscaling daily precipitation are very useful. They provide the whole conditional distribution at each forecast step to better represent the temporal variability. The question addressed in this paper is: how to simulate spatiotemporal characteristics of multisite daily precipitation from probabilistic regression models? Recent publications point out the complexity of multisite properties of daily precipitation and highlight the need for using a non-Gaussian flexible tool. This work proposes a reasonable compromise between simplicity and flexibility avoiding model misspecification. A suitable nonparametric bootstrapping (NB) technique is adopted. A downscaling model which merges a vector generalized linear model (VGLM as a probabilistic regression tool) and the proposed bootstrapping technique is introduced to simulate realistic multisite precipitation series. The model is applied to data sets from the southern part of the province of Quebec, Canada. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing both at-site properties and the spatial structure of daily precipitations. Results indicate the superiority of the proposed NB technique, over a multivariate autoregressive Gaussian framework (i.e. Gaussian copula).

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

PubMed

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

Spatio-temporal networks: reachability, centrality and robustness.

PubMed

Williams, Matthew J; Musolesi, Mirco

2016-06-01

Recent advances in spatial and temporal networks have enabled researchers to more-accurately describe many real-world systems such as urban transport networks. In this paper, we study the response of real-world spatio-temporal networks to random error and systematic attack, taking a unified view of their spatial and temporal performance. We propose a model of spatio-temporal paths in time-varying spatially embedded networks which captures the property that, as in many real-world systems, interaction between nodes is non-instantaneous and governed by the space in which they are embedded. Through numerical experiments on three real-world urban transport systems, we study the effect of node failure on a network's topological, temporal and spatial structure. We also demonstrate the broader applicability of this framework to three other classes of network. To identify weaknesses specific to the behaviour of a spatio-temporal system, we introduce centrality measures that evaluate the importance of a node as a structural bridge and its role in supporting spatio-temporally efficient flows through the network. This exposes the complex nature of fragility in a spatio-temporal system, showing that there is a variety of failure modes when a network is subject to systematic attacks.

Estimation of Subpixel Snow-Covered Area by Nonparametric Regression Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuter, S.; Akyürek, Z.; Weber, G.-W.

2016-10-01

Measurement of the areal extent of snow cover with high accuracy plays an important role in hydrological and climate modeling. Remotely-sensed data acquired by earth-observing satellites offer great advantages for timely monitoring of snow cover. However, the main obstacle is the tradeoff between temporal and spatial resolution of satellite imageries. Soft or subpixel classification of low or moderate resolution satellite images is a preferred technique to overcome this problem. The most frequently employed snow cover fraction methods applied on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have evolved from spectral unmixing and empirical Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) methods to latest machine learning-based artificial neural networks (ANNs). This study demonstrates the implementation of subpixel snow-covered area estimation based on the state-of-the-art nonparametric spline regression method, namely, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). MARS models were trained by using MODIS top of atmospheric reflectance values of bands 1-7 as predictor variables. Reference percentage snow cover maps were generated from higher spatial resolution Landsat ETM+ binary snow cover maps. A multilayer feed-forward ANN with one hidden layer trained with backpropagation was also employed to estimate the percentage snow-covered area on the same data set. The results indicated that the developed MARS model performed better than th

Regional downscaling of temporal resolution in near-surface wind from statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for use in San Francisco Bay coastal flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P.

2013-12-01

While Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) provide daily near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within San Francisco Bay. Using 30 years (1975-2004) of climatological data from four representative stations around San Francisco Bay, a library of example daily wind conditions for four corresponding over-water sub-regions is constructed. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) of station conditions are compared to MACA GFDL hindcasts to create correction factors, which are then applied to 21st century MACA wind projections. For each projection day, a best match example is identified via least squares error among all stations from the library. The best match's daily variation in velocity components (u/v) is used as an analogue of representative wind variation and is applied at 3-hour increments about the corresponding sub-region's projected u/v values. High temporal resolution reconstructions using this methodology on hindcast MACA fields from 1975-2004 accurately recreate extreme wind values within the San Francisco Bay, and because these extremes in wind forcing are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling, this represents a valuable method of generating near-surface wind vectors for use in coastal flood modeling.

Invariant Visual Object and Face Recognition: Neural and Computational Bases, and a Model, VisNet

PubMed Central

Rolls, Edmund T.

2012-01-01

Neurophysiological evidence for invariant representations of objects and faces in the primate inferior temporal visual cortex is described. Then a computational approach to how invariant representations are formed in the brain is described that builds on the neurophysiology. A feature hierarchy model in which invariant representations can be built by self-organizing learning based on the temporal and spatial statistics of the visual input produced by objects as they transform in the world is described. VisNet can use temporal continuity in an associative synaptic learning rule with a short-term memory trace, and/or it can use spatial continuity in continuous spatial transformation learning which does not require a temporal trace. The model of visual processing in the ventral cortical stream can build representations of objects that are invariant with respect to translation, view, size, and also lighting. The model has been extended to provide an account of invariant representations in the dorsal visual system of the global motion produced by objects such as looming, rotation, and object-based movement. The model has been extended to incorporate top-down feedback connections to model the control of attention by biased competition in, for example, spatial and object search tasks. The approach has also been extended to account for how the visual system can select single objects in complex visual scenes, and how multiple objects can be represented in a scene. The approach has also been extended to provide, with an additional layer, for the development of representations of spatial scenes of the type found in the hippocampus. PMID:22723777

Invariant Visual Object and Face Recognition: Neural and Computational Bases, and a Model, VisNet.

PubMed

Rolls, Edmund T

2012-01-01

Neurophysiological evidence for invariant representations of objects and faces in the primate inferior temporal visual cortex is described. Then a computational approach to how invariant representations are formed in the brain is described that builds on the neurophysiology. A feature hierarchy model in which invariant representations can be built by self-organizing learning based on the temporal and spatial statistics of the visual input produced by objects as they transform in the world is described. VisNet can use temporal continuity in an associative synaptic learning rule with a short-term memory trace, and/or it can use spatial continuity in continuous spatial transformation learning which does not require a temporal trace. The model of visual processing in the ventral cortical stream can build representations of objects that are invariant with respect to translation, view, size, and also lighting. The model has been extended to provide an account of invariant representations in the dorsal visual system of the global motion produced by objects such as looming, rotation, and object-based movement. The model has been extended to incorporate top-down feedback connections to model the control of attention by biased competition in, for example, spatial and object search tasks. The approach has also been extended to account for how the visual system can select single objects in complex visual scenes, and how multiple objects can be represented in a scene. The approach has also been extended to provide, with an additional layer, for the development of representations of spatial scenes of the type found in the hippocampus.

Modeling the spatial and temporal variability in climate and primary productivity across the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico.

Treesearch

Hongqing Wanga; Charles A.S. Halla; Frederick N. Scatenab; Ned Fetcherc; Wei Wua

2003-01-01

There are few studies that have examined the spatial variability of forest productivity over an entire tropical forested landscape. In this study, we used a spatially-explicit forest productivity model, TOPOPROD, which is based on the FORESTBGC model, to simulate spatial patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and respiration over...

Review of applications for SIMDEUM, a stochastic drinking water demand model with a small temporal and spatial scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blokker, Mirjam; Agudelo-Vera, Claudia; Moerman, Andreas; van Thienen, Peter; Pieterse-Quirijns, Ilse

2017-04-01

Many researchers have developed drinking water demand models with various temporal and spatial scales. A limited number of models is available at a temporal scale of 1 s and a spatial scale of a single home. The reasons for building these models were described in the papers in which the models were introduced, along with a discussion on their potential applications. However, the predicted applications are seldom re-examined. SIMDEUM, a stochastic end-use model for drinking water demand, has often been applied in research and practice since it was developed. We are therefore re-examining its applications in this paper. SIMDEUM's original purpose was to calculate maximum demands in order to design self-cleaning networks. Yet, the model has been useful in many more applications. This paper gives an overview of the many fields of application for SIMDEUM and shows where this type of demand model is indispensable and where it has limited practical value. This overview also leads to an understanding of the requirements for demand models in various applications.

On the sub-model errors of a generalized one-way coupling scheme for linking models at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Jicai; Zha, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yonggen; Shi, Liangsheng; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2017-11-01

Multi-scale modeling of the localized groundwater flow problems in a large-scale aquifer has been extensively investigated under the context of cost-benefit controversy. An alternative is to couple the parent and child models with different spatial and temporal scales, which may result in non-trivial sub-model errors in the local areas of interest. Basically, such errors in the child models originate from the deficiency in the coupling methods, as well as from the inadequacy in the spatial and temporal discretizations of the parent and child models. In this study, we investigate the sub-model errors within a generalized one-way coupling scheme given its numerical stability and efficiency, which enables more flexibility in choosing sub-models. To couple the models at different scales, the head solution at parent scale is delivered downward onto the child boundary nodes by means of the spatial and temporal head interpolation approaches. The efficiency of the coupling model is improved either by refining the grid or time step size in the parent and child models, or by carefully locating the sub-model boundary nodes. The temporal truncation errors in the sub-models can be significantly reduced by the adaptive local time-stepping scheme. The generalized one-way coupling scheme is promising to handle the multi-scale groundwater flow problems with complex stresses and heterogeneity.

A multi-level analysis of the relationship between environmental factors and questing Ixodes ricinus dynamics in Belgium

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Ticks are the most important pathogen vectors in Europe. They are known to be influenced by environmental factors, but these links are usually studied at specific temporal or spatial scales. Focusing on Ixodes ricinus in Belgium, we attempt to bridge the gap between current “single-sided” studies that focus on temporal or spatial variation only. Here, spatial and temporal patterns of ticks are modelled together. Methods A multi-level analysis of the Ixodes ricinus patterns in Belgium was performed. Joint effects of weather, habitat quality and hunting on field sampled tick abundance were examined at two levels, namely, sampling level, which is associated with temporal dynamics, and site level, which is related to spatial dynamics. Independent variables were collected from standard weather station records, game management data and remote sensing-based land cover data. Results At sampling level, only a marginally significant effect of daily relative humidity and temperature on the abundance of questing nymphs was identified. Average wind speed of seven days prior to the sampling day was found important to both questing nymphs and adults. At site level, a group of landscape-level forest fragmentation indices were highlighted for both questing nymph and adult abundance, including the nearest-neighbour distance, the shape and the aggregation level of forest patches. No cross-level effects or spatial autocorrelation were found. Conclusions Nymphal and adult ticks responded differently to environmental variables at different spatial and temporal scales. Our results can advise spatio-temporal extents of environment data collection for continuing empirical investigations and potential parameters for biological tick models. PMID:22830528

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States

PubMed Central

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal D.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M.

2018-01-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison. PMID:29645013

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean;

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States.

PubMed

Dirmeyer, Paul A; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E; Dorigo, Wouter A; Quiring, Steven M; Ford, Trenton W; Santanello, Joseph A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Ek, Michael B; Koster, Randal D; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M

2016-04-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

Multivariate Pattern Analysis Reveals Category-Related Organization of Semantic Representations in Anterior Temporal Cortex.

PubMed

Malone, Patrick S; Glezer, Laurie S; Kim, Judy; Jiang, Xiong; Riesenhuber, Maximilian

2016-09-28

The neural substrates of semantic representation have been the subject of much controversy. The study of semantic representations is complicated by difficulty in disentangling perceptual and semantic influences on neural activity, as well as in identifying stimulus-driven, "bottom-up" semantic selectivity unconfounded by top-down task-related modulations. To address these challenges, we trained human subjects to associate pseudowords (TPWs) with various animal and tool categories. To decode semantic representations of these TPWs, we used multivariate pattern classification of fMRI data acquired while subjects performed a semantic oddball detection task. Crucially, the classifier was trained and tested on disjoint sets of TPWs, so that the classifier had to use the semantic information from the training set to correctly classify the test set. Animal and tool TPWs were successfully decoded based on fMRI activity in spatially distinct subregions of the left medial anterior temporal lobe (LATL). In addition, tools (but not animals) were successfully decoded from activity in the left inferior parietal lobule. The tool-selective LATL subregion showed greater functional connectivity with left inferior parietal lobule and ventral premotor cortex, indicating that each LATL subregion exhibits distinct patterns of connectivity. Our findings demonstrate category-selective organization of semantic representations in LATL into spatially distinct subregions, continuing the lateral-medial segregation of activation in posterior temporal cortex previously observed in response to images of animals and tools, respectively. Together, our results provide evidence for segregation of processing hierarchies for different classes of objects and the existence of multiple, category-specific semantic networks in the brain. The location and specificity of semantic representations in the brain are still widely debated. We trained human participants to associate specific pseudowords with various animal and tool categories, and used multivariate pattern classification of fMRI data to decode the semantic representations of the trained pseudowords. We found that: (1) animal and tool information was organized in category-selective subregions of medial left anterior temporal lobe (LATL); (2) tools, but not animals, were encoded in left inferior parietal lobe; and (3) LATL subregions exhibited distinct patterns of functional connectivity with category-related regions across cortex. Our findings suggest that semantic knowledge in LATL is organized in category-related subregions, providing evidence for the existence of multiple, category-specific semantic representations in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3610089-08$15.00/0.

Characterization of spatial and temporal variability in hydrochemistry of Johor Straits, Malaysia.

PubMed

Abdullah, Pauzi; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed; Jaafar, Othman; Mahmud, Mastura; Khalik, Wan Mohd Afiq Wan Mohd

2015-12-15

Characterization of hydrochemistry changes in Johor Straits within 5 years of monitoring works was successfully carried out. Water quality data sets (27 stations and 19 parameters) collected in this area were interpreted subject to multivariate statistical analysis. Cluster analysis grouped all the stations into four clusters ((Dlink/Dmax) × 100<90) and two clusters ((Dlink/Dmax) × 100<80) for site and period similarities. Principal component analysis rendered six significant components (eigenvalue>1) that explained 82.6% of the total variance of the data set. Classification matrix of discriminant analysis assigned 88.9-92.6% and 83.3-100% correctness in spatial and temporal variability, respectively. Times series analysis then confirmed that only four parameters were not significant over time change. Therefore, it is imperative that the environmental impact of reclamation and dredging works, municipal or industrial discharge, marine aquaculture and shipping activities in this area be effectively controlled and managed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of geochemical and environmental factors on seasonal variation of heavy metals in a coastal lagoon Yucatan, Mexico.

PubMed

Arcega-Cabrera, F; Garza-Pérez, R; Noreña-Barroso, E; Oceguera-Vargas, I

2015-01-01

This study investigated the influence of geochemical and environmental factors on seasonal variation in metals in Yucatan's Chelem lagoon. Anthropogenic activities discharge non-treated wastewater directly into it with detrimental environmental consequences. Accordingly, this study established the spatial and temporal patterns of fine grain sediments and concentrations of heavy metals. Multivariate analyses showed fine grain facies deposition, transition sites dominated by fine grain transport, and fine grain erosion sites. Spatial and temporal variations of heavy metals concentration were significant for Cd, Cu, Cr, and Pb. As, Cd, and Sn were as much as 12 times higher than SQuiRTs standards (Buchman 2008). The results indicate that aquifer water is bringing metals from relatively far inland and releasing them into the lagoon. Thus, it appears that the contamination of this lagoon is highly complex and must take into account systemic connections with inland anthropogenic activates and pollution, as well as local factors.

Spatial-temporal clustering of tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2016-12-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2017-04-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Aerosol Optical Depth and its Driving Factors Based on Modis in Jiangsu Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, C.; Xu, Q.; Gu, Y. K.; Qian, X. Y.; He, J. N.

2018-04-01

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is of great value for studying air mass and its changes. In this paper, we studied the spatial-temporal changes of AOD and its driving factors based on spatial autocorrelation model, gravity model and multiple regression analysis in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2016. The results showed that in terms of spatial distribution, the southern AOD value is higher, and the high-value aggregation areas are significant, while the northern AOD value is lower, but the low-value aggregation areas constantly change. The AOD gravity centers showed a clear point-like aggregation. In terms of temporal changes, the overall AOD in Jiangsu Province increased year by year in fluctuation. In terms of driving factors, the total amount of vehicles, precipitation and temperature are important factors for the growth of AOD.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Poster 12: Nitrile and Hydrocarbon Spatial Abundance Variations in Titan's Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Alexander E.; Nixon, Conor A.; Molter, Edward; Serigano, Joseph; Cordiner, Martin A.; Charnley, Steven B.; Teanby, Nick; Chanover, Nancy

2016-06-01

Many minor constituents of Titan's atmosphere exhibit latitudinal variations in abundance as a result of atmospheric circulation, photochemical production and subsequent destruction throughout Titan's seasonal cycle [1,2]. Species with observed spatial abundance variations include hydrocarbons - such as CH3CCH - and nitriles - HCN, HC3N, CH3CN, and C2H5CN - as found by Cassini [3,4]. Recent calibration images of Titan taken by the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) allow for measurements of rotational transition lines of these species in spatially resolved regions of Titan's disk [5]. Abundance profiles in Titan's lower/middle atmosphere are retrieved by modeling high resolution ALMA spectra using the Non-linear Optimal Estimator for MultivariatE Spectral analySIS (NEMESIS) radiative transfer code [6]. We present continuous abundance profiles for various species in Titan's atmosphere obtained from ALMA data in 2014. These species show polar abundance enhancements which can be compared to studies using Cassini data [7]. Measurements in the mesosphere will constrain molecular photochemical and dynamical models, while temporal variations inform our knowledge of chemical lifetimes for the large inventory of organic species produced in Titan's atmosphere. The synthesis of the ALMA and Cassini datasets thus allow us to observe the important changes in production and circulation of numerous trace components of Titan's atmosphere, which are attributed to Titan's seasons.

Spatio-temporal variations of nitric acid total columns from 9 years of IASI measurements - a driver study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronsmans, Gaétane; Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-04-01

This study aims to understand the spatial and temporal variability of HNO3 total columns in terms of explanatory variables. To achieve this, multiple linear regressions are used to fit satellite-derived time series of HNO3 daily averaged total columns. First, an analysis of the IASI 9-year time series (2008-2016) is conducted based on various equivalent latitude bands. The strong and systematic denitrification of the southern polar stratosphere is observed very clearly. It is also possible to distinguish, within the polar vortex, three regions which are differently affected by the denitrification. Three exceptional denitrification episodes in 2011, 2014 and 2016 are also observed in the Northern Hemisphere, due to unusually low arctic temperatures. The time series are then fitted by multivariate regressions to identify what variables are responsible for HNO3 variability in global distributions and time series, and to quantify their respective influence. Out of an ensemble of proxies (annual cycle, solar flux, quasi-biennial oscillation, multivariate ENSO index, Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and volume of polar stratospheric clouds), only the those defined as significant (p value < 0.05) by a selection algorithm are retained for each equivalent latitude band. Overall, the regression gives a good representation of HNO3 variability, with especially good results at high latitudes (60-80 % of the observed variability explained by the model). The regressions show the dominance of annual variability in all latitudinal bands, which is related to specific chemistry and dynamics depending on the latitudes. We find that the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) also have a major influence in the polar regions, and that their inclusion in the model improves the correlation coefficients and the residuals. However, there is still a relatively large portion of HNO3 variability that remains unexplained by the model, especially in the intertropical regions, where factors not included in the regression model (such as vegetation fires or lightning) may be at play.

Flood loss model transfer: on the value of additional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The transfer of models across geographical regions and flood events is a key challenge in flood loss estimation. Variations in local characteristics and continuous system changes require regional adjustments and continuous updating with current evidence. However, acquiring data on damage influencing factors is expensive and therefore assessing the value of additional data in terms of model reliability and performance improvement is of high relevance. The present study utilizes empirical flood loss data on direct damage to residential buildings available from computer aided telephone interviews that were carried out after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2013 mainly in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood loss model performance is assessed for incrementally increased numbers of loss data which are differentiated according to region and flood event. Two flood loss modeling approaches are considered: (i) a multi-variable flood loss model approach using Random Forests and (ii) a uni-variable stage damage function. Both model approaches are embedded in a bootstrapping process which allows evaluating the uncertainty of model predictions. Predictive performance of both models is evaluated with regard to mean bias, mean absolute and mean squared errors, as well as hit rate and sharpness. Mean bias and mean absolute error give information about the accuracy of model predictions; mean squared error and sharpness about precision and hit rate is an indicator for model reliability. The results of incremental, regional and temporal updating demonstrate the usefulness of additional data to improve model predictive performance and increase model reliability, particularly in a spatial-temporal transfer setting.

Spatiotemporal integration for tactile localization during arm movements: a probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Maij, Femke; Wing, Alan M; Medendorp, W Pieter

2013-12-01

It has been shown that people make systematic errors in the localization of a brief tactile stimulus that is delivered to the index finger while they are making an arm movement. Here we modeled these spatial errors with a probabilistic approach, assuming that they follow from temporal uncertainty about the occurrence of the stimulus. In the model, this temporal uncertainty converts into a spatial likelihood about the external stimulus location, depending on arm velocity. We tested the prediction of the model that the localization errors depend on arm velocity. Participants (n = 8) were instructed to localize a tactile stimulus that was presented to their index finger while they were making either slow- or fast-targeted arm movements. Our results confirm the model's prediction that participants make larger localization errors when making faster arm movements. The model, which was used to fit the errors for both slow and fast arm movements simultaneously, accounted very well for all the characteristics of these data with temporal uncertainty in stimulus processing as the only free parameter. We conclude that spatial errors in dynamic tactile perception stem from the temporal precision with which tactile inputs are processed.

How does spatial extent of fMRI datasets affect independent component analysis decomposition?

PubMed

Aragri, Adriana; Scarabino, Tommaso; Seifritz, Erich; Comani, Silvia; Cirillo, Sossio; Tedeschi, Gioacchino; Esposito, Fabrizio; Di Salle, Francesco

2006-09-01

Spatial independent component analysis (sICA) of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series can generate meaningful activation maps and associated descriptive signals, which are useful to evaluate datasets of the entire brain or selected portions of it. Besides computational implications, variations in the input dataset combined with the multivariate nature of ICA may lead to different spatial or temporal readouts of brain activation phenomena. By reducing and increasing a volume of interest (VOI), we applied sICA to different datasets from real activation experiments with multislice acquisition and single or multiple sensory-motor task-induced blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal sources with different spatial and temporal structure. Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) methodology for accuracy evaluation and multiple regression analysis as benchmark, we compared sICA decompositions of reduced and increased VOI fMRI time-series containing auditory, motor and hemifield visual activation occurring separately or simultaneously in time. Both approaches yielded valid results; however, the results of the increased VOI approach were spatially more accurate compared to the results of the decreased VOI approach. This is consistent with the capability of sICA to take advantage of extended samples of statistical observations and suggests that sICA is more powerful with extended rather than reduced VOI datasets to delineate brain activity. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Computer Games versus Maps before Reading Stories: Priming Readers' Spatial Situation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Glenn Gordon; Majchrzak, Dan; Hayes, Shelley; Drobisz, Jack

2011-01-01

The current study investigated how computer games and maps compare as preparation for readers to comprehend and retain spatial relations in text narratives. Readers create situation models of five dimensions: spatial, temporal, causal, goal, and protagonist (Zwaan, Langston, & Graesser 1995). Of these five, readers mentally model the spatial…

Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark S.

2013-02-01

Many spatio-temporal models have been proposed for forecasting the location and timing of the next eruption in a monogenetic volcanic field. These have almost invariably been fitted retrospectively. That is, the model has been tuned to all of the data, and hence an assessment of the goodness of fit has not been carried out on independent data. The low rate of eruptions in monogenetic fields means that there is not the opportunity to carry out a purely prospective test, as thousands of years would be required to accumulate the necessary data. This leaves open the possibility of a retrospective sequential test, where the parameters are calculated only on the basis of prior events and the resulting forecast compared statistically with the location and time of the next eruption. In general, events in volcanic fields are not dated with sufficient accuracy and precision to pursue this line of investigation; An exception is the Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand), consisting of c. 50 centers formed during the last c. 250 kyr, for which an age-order model exists in the form of a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, facilitating repeated sequential testing. I examine a suite of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal hazard models, comparing the degree of fit, and attempt to draw lessons from how and where each model is particularly successful or unsuccessful. A relatively simple (independent) combination of a renewal model (temporal term) and a spatially uniform ellipse (spatial term) performs as well as any other model. Both avoid over fitting the data, and hence large errors, when the spatio-temporal occurrence pattern changes.

Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly illustrate how this is applied within a probabilistic model to estimate catastrophic loss curves used by the reinsurance industry.

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007.

PubMed

Giorgi, Emanuele; Kreppel, Katharina; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Ratsitorahina, Maherisoa; Rajerison, Minoarisoa; Baylis, Matthew

2016-11-01

Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75-200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Gaussian copula model for the joint deficit index for droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van de Vyver, H.; Van den Bergh, J.

2018-06-01

The characterization of droughts and their impacts is very dependent on the time scale that is involved. In order to obtain an overall drought assessment, the cumulative effects of water deficits over different times need to be examined together. For example, the recently developed joint deficit index (JDI) is based on multivariate probabilities of precipitation over various time scales from 1- to 12-months, and was constructed from empirical copulas. In this paper, we examine the Gaussian copula model for the JDI. We model the covariance across the temporal scales with a two-parameter function that is commonly used in the specific context of spatial statistics or geostatistics. The validity of the covariance models is demonstrated with long-term precipitation series. Bootstrap experiments indicate that the Gaussian copula model has advantages over the empirical copula method in the context of drought severity assessment: (i) it is able to quantify droughts outside the range of the empirical copula, (ii) provides adequate drought quantification, and (iii) provides a better understanding of the uncertainty in the estimation.

Dynamic monitoring of the Poyang Lake wetland by integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin; Chen, Lifan; Huang, Bo; Michishita, Ryo; Xu, Bing

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion models (STARFM) have limited practical applications, because they often enforce the invalid assumption that land cover change does not occur between prior/posterior and target dates. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a spatiotemporal adaptive fusion model for NDVI products (STAFFN), to better blend highly resolved spatial and temporal information from multiple sensors. Compared with existing spatiotemporal fusion models, the proposed model integrates an initial prediction into a hierarchical selection strategy of similar pixels, and can capture landscape changes very well. Experiments using spatial details and temporal abundance comparison among MODIS, Landsat, and fusion results show that the predicted data can accurately capture temporal changes while preserving fine-spatial-resolution details. Model comparison also shows that STAFFNs produce consistently lower biases than STARFMs and the flexible spatiotemporal data fusion models (FSDAFs). A synthetic NDVI product (342 scenes in total) was produced with STAFFNs having a 16-day revisit frequency at 30-m spatial resolution from 2000 to 2014. With this product, we further provided a 15-year spatiotemporal change monitoring map of the Poyang Lake wetland. Results show that the water area in the dry season tended to lose 38.3 km2 yr-1 in coverage over the past 15 years, decreasing by 18.24% of the lake area between 2001 and 2014. The wetland vegetation group tended to increase in coverage, increasing by 10.08% of the lake area in the past 15 years. Our study indicates the STAFFN model can be reasonably applied in monitoring wetland dynamics, and can be easily adapted for the use with other ecosystems.

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Paul D.; Szpiro, Adam A.; Sheppard, Lianne; Lindström, Johan; Kaufman, Joel D.

2011-11-01

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in "land use" regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM 2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.

Simultaneous detection of landmarks and key-frame in cardiac perfusion MRI using a joint spatial-temporal context model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xiaoguang; Xue, Hui; Jolly, Marie-Pierre; Guetter, Christoph; Kellman, Peter; Hsu, Li-Yueh; Arai, Andrew; Zuehlsdorff, Sven; Littmann, Arne; Georgescu, Bogdan; Guehring, Jens

2011-03-01

Cardiac perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has proven clinical significance in diagnosis of heart diseases. However, analysis of perfusion data is time-consuming, where automatic detection of anatomic landmarks and key-frames from perfusion MR sequences is helpful for anchoring structures and functional analysis of the heart, leading toward fully automated perfusion analysis. Learning-based object detection methods have demonstrated their capabilities to handle large variations of the object by exploring a local region, i.e., context. Conventional 2D approaches take into account spatial context only. Temporal signals in perfusion data present a strong cue for anchoring. We propose a joint context model to encode both spatial and temporal evidence. In addition, our spatial context is constructed not only based on the landmark of interest, but also the landmarks that are correlated in the neighboring anatomies. A discriminative model is learned through a probabilistic boosting tree. A marginal space learning strategy is applied to efficiently learn and search in a high dimensional parameter space. A fully automatic system is developed to simultaneously detect anatomic landmarks and key frames in both RV and LV from perfusion sequences. The proposed approach was evaluated on a database of 373 cardiac perfusion MRI sequences from 77 patients. Experimental results of a 4-fold cross validation show superior landmark detection accuracies of the proposed joint spatial-temporal approach to the 2D approach that is based on spatial context only. The key-frame identification results are promising.

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Soil Erosion with RUSLE: A Case Study in an Olive Orchard Microcathment in Spain

EPA Science Inventory

Soil loss is commonly estimated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Since RUSLE is an empirically based soil loss model derived from surveys on plots, the high spatial and temporal variability of erosion in Mediterranean environments and scale effects provoke...

Landsat's role in ecological applications of remote sensing.

Treesearch

Warren B. Cohen; Samuel N. Goward

2004-01-01

Remote sensing, geographic information systems, and modeling have combined to produce a virtual explosion of growth in ecological investigations and applications that are explicitly spatial and temporal. Of all remotely sensed data, those acquired by landsat sensors have played the most pivotal role in spatial and temporal scaling. Modern terrestrial ecology relies on...

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Soil Erosion with RUSLE: A case Study in an Olive Orchard Microcathment in Spain

EPA Science Inventory

Soil loss is commonly estimated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Since RUSLE is an empirically based soil loss model derived from surveys on plots, the high spatial and temporal variability of erosion in Mediterranean environments and scale effects provo...

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Surface Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived from Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Mark; Rowe, Clinton; Kuivinen, Karl; Mote, Thomas

1996-01-01

The primary goals of this research were to identify and begin to comprehend the spatial and temporal variations in surface characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet using passive microwave observations, physically-based models of the snowpack and field observations of snowpack and firn properties.

Functional Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models For Longitudinal Image Data

PubMed Central

Luo, Xinchao; Zhu, Lixing; Kong, Linglong; Zhu, Hongtu

2015-01-01

Motivated by studying large-scale longitudinal image data, we propose a novel functional nonlinear mixed effects modeling (FN-MEM) framework to model the nonlinear spatial-temporal growth patterns of brain structure and function and their association with covariates of interest (e.g., time or diagnostic status). Our FNMEM explicitly quantifies a random nonlinear association map of individual trajectories. We develop an efficient estimation method to estimate the nonlinear growth function and the covariance operator of the spatial-temporal process. We propose a global test and a simultaneous confidence band for some specific growth patterns. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply FNMEM to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of white-matter fiber skeletons in a national database for autism research. Our FNMEM may provide a valuable tool for charting the developmental trajectories of various neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:26213453

Spatial and temporal analyses of metrics of tuberculosis infection in badgers (Meles meles) from the Republic of Ireland: Trends in apparent prevalence.

PubMed

Byrne, A W; Kenny, K; Fogarty, U; O'Keeffe, J J; More, S J; McGrath, G; Teeling, M; Martin, S W; Dohoo, I R

2015-12-01

Badgers are a wildlife host of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), and an important contributor to the epidemiology of bTB in cattle in Ireland and Britain. Repeated culling of badgers in high prevalence cattle bTB areas has been used in the Republic of Ireland as one tool to reduce intra- and interspecific transmission of M. bovis. We assessed factors that influenced infection prevalence of culled badgers from 2009 to 2012 (n=4948) where spatial, temporal and intrinsic factor data were available using multivariable modelling. Prevalence appeared higher in western areas than eastern areas of Ireland and badgers were more likely to be test-positive if caught at a sett (burrow system) which was close to other infected setts (spatial clustering of infection). There was a significant positive association between badger test-status and cattle prevalence of M. bovis infection at a spatial scale of 1km around setts. Badgers were more likely to be deemed test positive if they were male (OR: 1.9) or a parous female (OR: 1.7), compared to a female who had never conceived. Our results are consistent with different groups within badger populations having differential exposures and therefore infection risk (for example, parous vs. non-parous females). Furthermore, bTB clusters within the badger population, with greater risk to badgers in setts that are closest to other infected setts. The effective scale of the association of bTB risk between badger and cattle populations may be relatively large in Ireland. Our data indicate that the overall trend in prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers has decreased in Ireland (P<0.001) while controlling for significant confounders over the study period, and follows a longer temporal trend from 2007 to 2013, where unadjusted apparent prevalence declined from 26% to 11% during 2007 to mid-2011, followed by a stable trend between 9 and 11% thereafter (n=10,267). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time Series Remote Sensing in Monitoring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plant Invasions: A Study of Invasive Saltcedar (Tamarix Spp.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diao, Chunyuan

In today's big data era, the increasing availability of satellite and airborne platforms at various spatial and temporal scales creates unprecedented opportunities to understand the complex and dynamic systems (e.g., plant invasion). Time series remote sensing is becoming more and more important to monitor the earth system dynamics and interactions. To date, most of the time series remote sensing studies have been conducted with the images acquired at coarse spatial scale, due to their relatively high temporal resolution. The construction of time series at fine spatial scale, however, is limited to few or discrete images acquired within or across years. The objective of this research is to advance the time series remote sensing at fine spatial scale, particularly to shift from discrete time series remote sensing to continuous time series remote sensing. The objective will be achieved through the following aims: 1) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the pure-pixel assumption; 2) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the mixed-pixel assumption; 3) Advance inter-annual time series remote sensing in monitoring the land surface dynamics; and 4) Advance the species distribution model with time series remote sensing. Taking invasive saltcedar as an example, four methods (i.e., phenological time series remote sensing model, temporal partial unmixing method, multiyear spectral angle clustering model, and time series remote sensing-based spatially explicit species distribution model) were developed to achieve the objectives. Results indicated that the phenological time series remote sensing model could effectively map saltcedar distributions through characterizing the seasonal phenological dynamics of plant species throughout the year. The proposed temporal partial unmixing method, compared to conventional unmixing methods, could more accurately estimate saltcedar abundance within a pixel by exploiting the adequate temporal signatures of saltcedar. The multiyear spectral angle clustering model could guide the selection of the most representative remotely sensed image for repetitive saltcedar mapping over space and time. Through incorporating spatial autocorrelation, the species distribution model developed in the study could identify the suitable habitats of saltcedar at a fine spatial scale and locate appropriate areas at high risk of saltcedar infestation. Among 10 environmental variables, the distance to the river and the phenological attributes summarized by the time series remote sensing were regarded as the most important. These methods developed in the study provide new perspectives on how the continuous time series can be leveraged under various conditions to investigate the plant invasion dynamics.

Modeling vertebrate diversity in Oregon using satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cablk, Mary Elizabeth

Vertebrate diversity was modeled for the state of Oregon using a parametric approach to regression tree analysis. This exploratory data analysis effectively modeled the non-linear relationships between vertebrate richness and phenology, terrain, and climate. Phenology was derived from time-series NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery for the year 1992 using two methods: principal component analysis and derivation of EROS data center greenness metrics. These two measures of spatial and temporal vegetation condition incorporated the critical temporal element in this analysis. The first three principal components were shown to contain spatial and temporal information about the landscape and discriminated phenologically distinct regions in Oregon. Principal components 2 and 3, 6 greenness metrics, elevation, slope, aspect, annual precipitation, and annual seasonal temperature difference were investigated as correlates to amphibians, birds, all vertebrates, reptiles, and mammals. Variation explained for each regression tree by taxa were: amphibians (91%), birds (67%), all vertebrates (66%), reptiles (57%), and mammals (55%). Spatial statistics were used to quantify the pattern of each taxa and assess validity of resulting predictions from regression tree models. Regression tree analysis was relatively robust against spatial autocorrelation in the response data and graphical results indicated models were well fit to the data.

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

A computational model for how cells choose temporal or spatial sensing during chemotaxis.

PubMed

Tan, Rui Zhen; Chiam, Keng-Hwee

2018-03-01

Cell size is thought to play an important role in choosing between temporal and spatial sensing in chemotaxis. Large cells are thought to use spatial sensing due to large chemical difference at its ends whereas small cells are incapable of spatial sensing due to rapid homogenization of proteins within the cell. However, small cells have been found to polarize and large cells like sperm cells undergo temporal sensing. Thus, it remains an open question what exactly governs spatial versus temporal sensing. Here, we identify the factors that determines sensing choices through mathematical modeling of chemotactic circuits. Comprehensive computational search of three-node signaling circuits has identified the negative integral feedback (NFB) and incoherent feedforward (IFF) circuits as capable of adaptation, an important property for chemotaxis. Cells are modeled as one-dimensional circular system consisting of diffusible activator, inactivator and output proteins, traveling across a chemical gradient. From our simulations, we find that sensing outcomes are similar for NFB or IFF circuits. Rather than cell size, the relevant parameters are the 1) ratio of cell speed to the product of cell diameter and rate of signaling, 2) diffusivity of the output protein and 3) ratio of the diffusivities of the activator to inactivator protein. Spatial sensing is favored when all three parameters are low. This corresponds to a cell moving slower than the time it takes for signaling to propagate across the cell diameter, has an output protein that is polarizable and has a local-excitation global-inhibition system to amplify the chemical gradient. Temporal sensing is favored otherwise. We also find that temporal sensing is more robust to noise. By performing extensive literature search, we find that our prediction agrees with observation in a wide range of species and cell types ranging from E. coli to human Fibroblast cells and propose that our result is universally applicable.

A computational model for how cells choose temporal or spatial sensing during chemotaxis

PubMed Central

Tan, Rui Zhen; Chiam, Keng-Hwee

2018-01-01

Cell size is thought to play an important role in choosing between temporal and spatial sensing in chemotaxis. Large cells are thought to use spatial sensing due to large chemical difference at its ends whereas small cells are incapable of spatial sensing due to rapid homogenization of proteins within the cell. However, small cells have been found to polarize and large cells like sperm cells undergo temporal sensing. Thus, it remains an open question what exactly governs spatial versus temporal sensing. Here, we identify the factors that determines sensing choices through mathematical modeling of chemotactic circuits. Comprehensive computational search of three-node signaling circuits has identified the negative integral feedback (NFB) and incoherent feedforward (IFF) circuits as capable of adaptation, an important property for chemotaxis. Cells are modeled as one-dimensional circular system consisting of diffusible activator, inactivator and output proteins, traveling across a chemical gradient. From our simulations, we find that sensing outcomes are similar for NFB or IFF circuits. Rather than cell size, the relevant parameters are the 1) ratio of cell speed to the product of cell diameter and rate of signaling, 2) diffusivity of the output protein and 3) ratio of the diffusivities of the activator to inactivator protein. Spatial sensing is favored when all three parameters are low. This corresponds to a cell moving slower than the time it takes for signaling to propagate across the cell diameter, has an output protein that is polarizable and has a local-excitation global-inhibition system to amplify the chemical gradient. Temporal sensing is favored otherwise. We also find that temporal sensing is more robust to noise. By performing extensive literature search, we find that our prediction agrees with observation in a wide range of species and cell types ranging from E. coli to human Fibroblast cells and propose that our result is universally applicable. PMID:29505572

An integrated GIS-based data model for multimodal urban public transportation analysis and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shaopei; Tan, Jianjun; Ray, C.; Claramunt, C.; Sun, Qinqin

2008-10-01

Diversity is one of the main characteristics of transportation data collected from multiple sources or formats, which can be extremely complex and disparate. Moreover, these multimodal transportation data are usually characterised by spatial and temporal properties. Multimodal transportation network data modelling involves both an engineering and research domain that has attracted the design of a number of spatio-temporal data models in the geographic information system (GIS). However, the application of these specific models to multimodal transportation network is still a challenging task. This research addresses this challenge from both integrated multimodal data organization and object-oriented modelling perspectives, that is, how a complex urban transportation network should be organized, represented and modeled appropriately when considering a multimodal point of view, and using object-oriented modelling method. We proposed an integrated GIS-based data model for multimodal urban transportation network that lays a foundation to enhance the multimodal transportation network analysis and management. This modelling method organizes and integrates multimodal transit network data, and supports multiple representations for spatio-temporal objects and relationship as both visual and graphic views. The data model is expressed by using a spatio-temporal object-oriented modelling method, i.e., the unified modelling language (UML) extended to spatial and temporal plug-in for visual languages (PVLs), which provides an essential support to the spatio-temporal data modelling for transportation GIS.

Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010.

PubMed

Paireau, Juliette; Maïnassara, Halima B; Jusot, Jean-François; Collard, Jean-Marc; Idi, Issa; Moulia-Pelat, Jean-Paul; Mueller, Judith E; Fontanet, Arnaud

2014-05-01

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger. To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated.

Added-values of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data in crop yield estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, F.; Anderson, M. C.

2017-12-01

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for food market and administrative planning. Remote sensing derived parameters have been used for estimating crop yield by using either empirical or crop growth models. The uses of remote sensing vegetation index (VI) in crop yield modeling have been typically evaluated at regional and country scales using coarse spatial resolution (a few hundred to kilo-meters) data or assessed over a small region at field level using moderate resolution spatial resolution data (10-100m). Both data sources have shown great potential in capturing spatial and temporal variability in crop yield. However, the added value of data with both high spatial and temporal resolution data has not been evaluated due to the lack of such data source with routine, global coverage. In recent years, more moderate resolution data have become freely available and data fusion approaches that combine data acquired from different spatial and temporal resolutions have been developed. These make the monitoring crop condition and estimating crop yield at field scale become possible. Here we investigate the added value of the high spatial and temporal VI for describing variability of crop yield. The explanatory ability of crop yield based on high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data was evaluated in a rain-fed agricultural area in the U.S. Corn Belt. Results show that the fused Landsat-MODIS (high spatial and temporal) VI explains yield variability better than single data source (Landsat or MODIS alone), with EVI2 performing slightly better than NDVI. The maximum VI describes yield variability better than cumulative VI. Even though VI is effective in explaining yield variability within season, the inter-annual variability is more complex and need additional information (e.g. weather, water use and management). Our findings augment the importance of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data and supports new moderate resolution satellite missions for agricultural applications.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Neural Activity from Pairwise Correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marre, O.; El Boustani, S.; Fregnac, Y.

We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatiotemporal patterns significantly better than Ising models only based on spatial correlations. This increase of predictability was also observed on experimental data recorded in parietal cortex during slow-wave sleep. This approach can also be used to generate surrogatesmore » that reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of a given data set.« less

Temporal Lobe and “Default” Hemodynamic Brain Modes Discriminate Between Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Calhoun, Vince D.; Maciejewski, Paul K.; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2009-01-01

Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are currently diagnosed on the basis of psychiatric symptoms and longitudinal course. The determination of a reliable, biologically-based diagnostic indicator of these diseases (a biomarker) could provide the groundwork for developing more rigorous tools for differential diagnosis and treatment assignment. Recently, methods have been used to identify distinct sets of brain regions or “spatial modes” exhibiting temporally coherent brain activity. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and a multivariate analysis method, independent component analysis, we combined the temporal lobe and the default modes to discriminate subjects with bipolar disorder, chronic schizophrenia, and healthy controls. Temporal lobe and default mode networks were reliably identified in all participants. Classification results on an independent set of individuals revealed an average sensitivity and specificity of 90 and 95%, respectively. The use of coherent brain networks such as the temporal lobe and default mode networks may provide a more reliable measure of disease state than task-correlated fMRI activity. A combination of two such hemodynamic brain networks shows promise as a biomarker for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. PMID:17894392

Temporal lobe and "default" hemodynamic brain modes discriminate between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Calhoun, Vince D; Maciejewski, Paul K; Pearlson, Godfrey D; Kiehl, Kent A

2008-11-01

Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are currently diagnosed on the basis of psychiatric symptoms and longitudinal course. The determination of a reliable, biologically-based diagnostic indicator of these diseases (a biomarker) could provide the groundwork for developing more rigorous tools for differential diagnosis and treatment assignment. Recently, methods have been used to identify distinct sets of brain regions or "spatial modes" exhibiting temporally coherent brain activity. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and a multivariate analysis method, independent component analysis, we combined the temporal lobe and the default modes to discriminate subjects with bipolar disorder, chronic schizophrenia, and healthy controls. Temporal lobe and default mode networks were reliably identified in all participants. Classification results on an independent set of individuals revealed an average sensitivity and specificity of 90 and 95%, respectively. The use of coherent brain networks such as the temporal lobe and default mode networks may provide a more reliable measure of disease state than task-correlated fMRI activity. A combination of two such hemodynamic brain networks shows promise as a biomarker for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data.

PubMed

Duan, L L; Szczesniak, R D; Wang, X

2017-11-01

Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization.

Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data

PubMed Central

Duan, L. L.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Wang, X.

2018-01-01

Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization. PMID:29576735

Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.

1983-07-01

Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

Deriving video content type from HEVC bitstream semantics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nightingale, James; Wang, Qi; Grecos, Christos; Goma, Sergio R.

2014-05-01

As network service providers seek to improve customer satisfaction and retention levels, they are increasingly moving from traditional quality of service (QoS) driven delivery models to customer-centred quality of experience (QoE) delivery models. QoS models only consider metrics derived from the network however, QoE models also consider metrics derived from within the video sequence itself. Various spatial and temporal characteristics of a video sequence have been proposed, both individually and in combination, to derive methods of classifying video content either on a continuous scale or as a set of discrete classes. QoE models can be divided into three broad categories, full reference, reduced reference and no-reference models. Due to the need to have the original video available at the client for comparison, full reference metrics are of limited practical value in adaptive real-time video applications. Reduced reference metrics often require metadata to be transmitted with the bitstream, while no-reference metrics typically operate in the decompressed domain at the client side and require significant processing to extract spatial and temporal features. This paper proposes a heuristic, no-reference approach to video content classification which is specific to HEVC encoded bitstreams. The HEVC encoder already makes use of spatial characteristics to determine partitioning of coding units and temporal characteristics to determine the splitting of prediction units. We derive a function which approximates the spatio-temporal characteristics of the video sequence by using the weighted averages of the depth at which the coding unit quadtree is split and the prediction mode decision made by the encoder to estimate spatial and temporal characteristics respectively. Since the video content type of a sequence is determined by using high level information parsed from the video stream, spatio-temporal characteristics are identified without the need for full decoding and can be used in a timely manner to aid decision making in QoE oriented adaptive real time streaming.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porwollik, Vera; Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Iizumi, Toshichika; Ray, Deepak K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe;

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model

PubMed Central

Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species. PMID:28886179

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model.

PubMed

Carson, Stuart; Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species.

SPATIAL PREDICTION USING COMBINED SOURCES OF DATA

EPA Science Inventory

For improved environmental decision-making, it is important to develop new models for spatial prediction that accurately characterize important spatial and temporal patterns of air pollution. As the U .S. Environmental Protection Agency begins to use spatial prediction in the reg...

State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: Effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-12-01

This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model (Rakovec et al., 2012a). The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. The uncertain precipitation model forcings were obtained using a time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulation method (Rakovec et al., 2012b), which is further made conditional on preceding simulations. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty. Rakovec, O., Weerts, A. H., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., and Uijlenhoet, R.: State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 3961-3999, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3961-2012, 2012a. Rakovec, O., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Weerts, A. H., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 3087-3127, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3087-2012, 2012b.

Tigers on trails: occupancy modeling for cluster sampling.

PubMed

Hines, J E; Nichols, J D; Royle, J A; MacKenzie, D I; Gopalaswamy, A M; Kumar, N Samba; Karanth, K U

2010-07-01

Occupancy modeling focuses on inference about the distribution of organisms over space, using temporal or spatial replication to allow inference about the detection process. Inference based on spatial replication strictly requires that replicates be selected randomly and with replacement, but the importance of these design requirements is not well understood. This paper focuses on an increasingly popular sampling design based on spatial replicates that are not selected randomly and that are expected to exhibit Markovian dependence. We develop two new occupancy models for data collected under this sort of design, one based on an underlying Markov model for spatial dependence and the other based on a trap response model with Markovian detections. We then simulated data under the model for Markovian spatial dependence and fit the data to standard occupancy models and to the two new models. Bias of occupancy estimates was substantial for the standard models, smaller for the new trap response model, and negligible for the new spatial process model. We also fit these models to data from a large-scale tiger occupancy survey recently conducted in Karnataka State, southwestern India. In addition to providing evidence of a positive relationship between tiger occupancy and habitat, model selection statistics and estimates strongly supported the use of the model with Markovian spatial dependence. This new model provides another tool for the decomposition of the detection process, which is sometimes needed for proper estimation and which may also permit interesting biological inferences. In addition to designs employing spatial replication, we note the likely existence of temporal Markovian dependence in many designs using temporal replication. The models developed here will be useful either directly, or with minor extensions, for these designs as well. We believe that these new models represent important additions to the suite of modeling tools now available for occupancy estimation in conservation monitoring. More generally, this work represents a contribution to the topic of cluster sampling for situations in which there is a need for specific modeling (e.g., reflecting dependence) for the distribution of the variable(s) of interest among subunits.

Decoding word and category-specific spatiotemporal representations from MEG and EEG

PubMed Central

Chan, Alexander M.; Halgren, Eric; Marinkovic, Ksenija; Cash, Sydney S.

2010-01-01

The organization and localization of lexico-semantic information in the brain has been debated for many years. Specifically, lesion and imaging studies have attempted to map the brain areas representing living versus non-living objects, however, results remain variable. This may be due, in part, to the fact that the univariate statistical mapping analyses used to detect these brain areas are typically insensitive to subtle, but widespread, effects. Decoding techniques, on the other hand, allow for a powerful multivariate analysis of multichannel neural data. In this study, we utilize machine-learning algorithms to first demonstrate that semantic category, as well as individual words, can be decoded from EEG and MEG recordings of subjects performing a language task. Mean accuracies of 76% (chance = 50%) and 83% (chance = 20%) were obtained for the decoding of living vs. non-living category or individual words respectively. Furthermore, we utilize this decoding analysis to demonstrate that the representations of words and semantic category are highly distributed both spatially and temporally. In particular, bilateral anterior temporal, bilateral inferior frontal, and left inferior temporal-occipital sensors are most important for discrimination. Successful intersubject and intermodality decoding shows that semantic representations between stimulus modalities and individuals are reasonably consistent. These results suggest that both word and category-specific information are present in extracranially recorded neural activity and that these representations may be more distributed, both spatially and temporally, than previous studies suggest. PMID:21040796

Spatial and Temporal Soil Moisture Behavior in a Headwater Watershed of the Mantiqueira Range, Minas Gerais, Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The characterization of temporal and spatial variability of soil moisture is highly relevant in watersheds for understanding the many hydrological and erosion processes, to better model the processes and apply them to conservation planning. The goal of this study was to map soil moisture of the surf...

Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of mountain snowpack and terrestrial water storage in the Upper Snake River, USA

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial and temporal relationships of winter snowpack and terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Upper Snake River were analyzed for water years 2001–2010 at a monthly time step. We coupled a regionally validated snow model with gravimetric measurements of the Earth’s water...

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models.

PubMed

Lovejoy, S; de Lima, M I P

2015-07-01

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30-100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate "macroweather" regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be "homogenized" by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.

CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

Computationally efficient video restoration for Nyquist sampled imaging sensors combining an affine-motion-based temporal Kalman filter and adaptive Wiener filter.

PubMed

Rucci, Michael; Hardie, Russell C; Barnard, Kenneth J

2014-05-01

In this paper, we present a computationally efficient video restoration algorithm to address both blur and noise for a Nyquist sampled imaging system. The proposed method utilizes a temporal Kalman filter followed by a correlation-model based spatial adaptive Wiener filter (AWF). The Kalman filter employs an affine background motion model and novel process-noise variance estimate. We also propose and demonstrate a new multidelay temporal Kalman filter designed to more robustly treat local motion. The AWF is a spatial operation that performs deconvolution and adapts to the spatially varying residual noise left in the Kalman filter stage. In image areas where the temporal Kalman filter is able to provide significant noise reduction, the AWF can be aggressive in its deconvolution. In other areas, where less noise reduction is achieved with the Kalman filter, the AWF balances the deconvolution with spatial noise reduction. In this way, the Kalman filter and AWF work together effectively, but without the computational burden of full joint spatiotemporal processing. We also propose a novel hybrid system that combines a temporal Kalman filter and BM3D processing. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, we test the algorithms on both simulated imagery and video collected with a visible camera.

Computational Aspects of N-Mixture Models

PubMed Central

Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron JT; Ridout, Martin S

2015-01-01

The N-mixture model is widely used to estimate the abundance of a population in the presence of unknown detection probability from only a set of counts subject to spatial and temporal replication (Royle, 2004, Biometrics 60, 105–115). We explain and exploit the equivalence of N-mixture and multivariate Poisson and negative-binomial models, which provides powerful new approaches for fitting these models. We show that particularly when detection probability and the number of sampling occasions are small, infinite estimates of abundance can arise. We propose a sample covariance as a diagnostic for this event, and demonstrate its good performance in the Poisson case. Infinite estimates may be missed in practice, due to numerical optimization procedures terminating at arbitrarily large values. It is shown that the use of a bound, K, for an infinite summation in the N-mixture likelihood can result in underestimation of abundance, so that default values of K in computer packages should be avoided. Instead we propose a simple automatic way to choose K. The methods are illustrated by analysis of data on Hermann's tortoise Testudo hermanni. PMID:25314629

An advanced stochastic weather generator for simulating 2-D high-resolution climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2017-07-01

A new stochastic weather generator, Advanced WEather GENerator for a two-dimensional grid (AWE-GEN-2d) is presented. The model combines physical and stochastic approaches to simulate key meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution: 2 km × 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m × 100 m and 1 h for near-surface air temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, and near-surface wind. The model requires spatially distributed data for the calibration process, which can nowadays be obtained by remote sensing devices (weather radar and satellites), reanalysis data sets and ground stations. AWE-GEN-2d is parsimonious in terms of computational demand and therefore is particularly suitable for studies where exploring internal climatic variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is fundamental. Applications of the model include models of environmental systems, such as hydrological and geomorphological models, where high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological forcing is crucial. The weather generator was calibrated and validated for the Engelberg region, an area with complex topography in the Swiss Alps. Model test shows that the climate variables are generated by AWE-GEN-2d with a level of accuracy that is sufficient for many practical applications.

Self-similarity in nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timashev, S. F.

2000-02-01

A general phenomenological approach to the analysis of experimental temporal, spatial and energetic series for extracting truly physical non-model parameters ("passport data") is presented, which may be used to characterize and distinguish the evolution as well as the spatial and energetic structure of any open nonlinear dissipative system. This methodology is based on a postulate concerning the crucial information contained in the sequences of non-regularities of the measured dynamic variable (temporal, spatial, energetic). In accordance with this approach, multi-parametric formulas for dynamic variable power spectra as well as for structural functions of different orders are identical for every spatial-temporal-energetic level of the system under consideration. In effect, this entails the introduction of a new kind of self-similarity in Nature. An algorithm has been developed for obtaining as many "passport data" as are necessary for the characterization of a dynamic system. Applications of this approach in the analysis of various experimental series (temporal, spatial, energetic) demonstrate its potential for defining adequate phenomenological parameters of different dynamic processes and structures.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-07-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and model-projected changes. We statistically describe the future changes in rainstorm characteristics suggested by the WRF model and apply those changes to observational data. The resulting high spatial and temporal resolution scenarios have immediate applications for impacts assessment and adaptation studies.

Statistical analysis of corn yields responding to climate variability at various spatio-temporal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, H.; Lin, T.

2017-12-01

Rain-fed corn production systems are subject to sub-seasonal variations of precipitation and temperature during the growing season. As each growth phase has varied inherent physiological process, plants necessitate different optimal environmental conditions during each phase. However, this temporal heterogeneity towards climate variability alongside the lifecycle of crops is often simplified and fixed as constant responses in large scale statistical modeling analysis. To capture the time-variant growing requirements in large scale statistical analysis, we develop and compare statistical models at various spatial and temporal resolutions to quantify the relationship between corn yield and weather factors for 12 corn belt states from 1981 to 2016. The study compares three spatial resolutions (county, agricultural district, and state scale) and three temporal resolutions (crop growth phase, monthly, and growing season) to characterize the effects of spatial and temporal variability. Our results show that the agricultural district model together with growth phase resolution can explain 52% variations of corn yield caused by temperature and precipitation variability. It provides a practical model structure balancing the overfitting problem in county specific model and weak explanation power in state specific model. In US corn belt, precipitation has positive impact on corn yield in growing season except for vegetative stage while extreme heat attains highest sensitivity from silking to dough phase. The results show the northern counties in corn belt area are less interfered by extreme heat but are more vulnerable to water deficiency.

Multivariate spatiotemporal visualizations for mobile devices in Flyover Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeffler, S.; Thorn, R.; Myrbo, A.; Roth, R.; Goring, S. J.; Williams, J.

2017-12-01

Visualizing and interacting with complex multivariate and spatiotemporal datasets on mobile devices is challenging due to their smaller screens, reduced processing power, and limited data connectivity. Pollen data require visualizing pollen assemblages spatially, temporally, and across multiple taxa to understand plant community dynamics through time. Drawing from cartography, information visualization, and paleoecology, we have created new mobile-first visualization techniques that represent multiple taxa across many sites and enable user interaction. Using pollen datasets from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database as a case study, the visualization techniques allow ecological patterns and trends to be quickly understood on a mobile device compared to traditional pollen diagrams and maps. This flexible visualization system can be used for datasets beyond pollen, with the only requirements being point-based localities and multiple variables changing through time or depth.

Decoding Multiple Sound Categories in the Human Temporal Cortex Using High Resolution fMRI

PubMed Central

Zhang, Fengqing; Wang, Ji-Ping; Kim, Jieun; Parrish, Todd; Wong, Patrick C. M.

2015-01-01

Perception of sound categories is an important aspect of auditory perception. The extent to which the brain’s representation of sound categories is encoded in specialized subregions or distributed across the auditory cortex remains unclear. Recent studies using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of brain activations have provided important insights into how the brain decodes perceptual information. In the large existing literature on brain decoding using MVPA methods, relatively few studies have been conducted on multi-class categorization in the auditory domain. Here, we investigated the representation and processing of auditory categories within the human temporal cortex using high resolution fMRI and MVPA methods. More importantly, we considered decoding multiple sound categories simultaneously through multi-class support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (MSVM-RFE) as our MVPA tool. Results show that for all classifications the model MSVM-RFE was able to learn the functional relation between the multiple sound categories and the corresponding evoked spatial patterns and classify the unlabeled sound-evoked patterns significantly above chance. This indicates the feasibility of decoding multiple sound categories not only within but across subjects. However, the across-subject variation affects classification performance more than the within-subject variation, as the across-subject analysis has significantly lower classification accuracies. Sound category-selective brain maps were identified based on multi-class classification and revealed distributed patterns of brain activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus. This is in accordance with previous studies, indicating that information in the spatially distributed patterns may reflect a more abstract perceptual level of representation of sound categories. Further, we show that the across-subject classification performance can be significantly improved by averaging the fMRI images over items, because the irrelevant variations between different items of the same sound category are reduced and in turn the proportion of signals relevant to sound categorization increases. PMID:25692885

Decoding multiple sound categories in the human temporal cortex using high resolution fMRI.

PubMed

Zhang, Fengqing; Wang, Ji-Ping; Kim, Jieun; Parrish, Todd; Wong, Patrick C M

2015-01-01

Perception of sound categories is an important aspect of auditory perception. The extent to which the brain's representation of sound categories is encoded in specialized subregions or distributed across the auditory cortex remains unclear. Recent studies using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of brain activations have provided important insights into how the brain decodes perceptual information. In the large existing literature on brain decoding using MVPA methods, relatively few studies have been conducted on multi-class categorization in the auditory domain. Here, we investigated the representation and processing of auditory categories within the human temporal cortex using high resolution fMRI and MVPA methods. More importantly, we considered decoding multiple sound categories simultaneously through multi-class support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (MSVM-RFE) as our MVPA tool. Results show that for all classifications the model MSVM-RFE was able to learn the functional relation between the multiple sound categories and the corresponding evoked spatial patterns and classify the unlabeled sound-evoked patterns significantly above chance. This indicates the feasibility of decoding multiple sound categories not only within but across subjects. However, the across-subject variation affects classification performance more than the within-subject variation, as the across-subject analysis has significantly lower classification accuracies. Sound category-selective brain maps were identified based on multi-class classification and revealed distributed patterns of brain activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus. This is in accordance with previous studies, indicating that information in the spatially distributed patterns may reflect a more abstract perceptual level of representation of sound categories. Further, we show that the across-subject classification performance can be significantly improved by averaging the fMRI images over items, because the irrelevant variations between different items of the same sound category are reduced and in turn the proportion of signals relevant to sound categorization increases.

Simulation of spatially evolving turbulence and the applicability of Taylor's hypothesis in compressible flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Sangsan; Lele, Sanjiva K.; Moin, Parviz

1992-01-01

For the numerical simulation of inhomogeneous turbulent flows, a method is developed for generating stochastic inflow boundary conditions with a prescribed power spectrum. Turbulence statistics from spatial simulations using this method with a low fluctuation Mach number are in excellent agreement with the experimental data, which validates the procedure. Turbulence statistics from spatial simulations are also compared to those from temporal simulations using Taylor's hypothesis. Statistics such as turbulence intensity, vorticity, and velocity derivative skewness compare favorably with the temporal simulation. However, the statistics of dilatation show a significant departure from those obtained in the temporal simulation. To directly check the applicability of Taylor's hypothesis, space-time correlations of fluctuations in velocity, vorticity, and dilatation are investigated. Convection velocities based on vorticity and velocity fluctuations are computed as functions of the spatial and temporal separations. The profile of the space-time correlation of dilatation fluctuations is explained via a wave propagation model.

Part 2. Development of Enhanced Statistical Methods for Assessing Health Effects Associated with an Unknown Number of Major Sources of Multiple Air Pollutants.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford

2015-06-01

A major difficulty with assessing source-specific health effects is that source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by a source-apportionment method such as multivariate receptor modeling. The uncertainty in source apportionment (uncertainty in source-specific exposure estimates and model uncertainty due to the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions) has been largely ignored in previous studies. Also, spatial dependence of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites has not yet been incorporated into multivariate receptor modeling. The objectives of this project are (1) to develop a multipollutant approach that incorporates both sources of uncertainty in source-apportionment into the assessment of source-specific health effects and (2) to develop enhanced multivariate receptor models that can account for spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework consisting of multivariate receptor models, health-effects models, and a hierarchical model on latent source contributions. For the health model, we focused on the time-series design in this project. Each combination of number of sources and identifiability conditions (additional constraints on model parameters) defines a different model. We built a set of plausible models with extensive exploratory data analyses and with information from previous studies, and then computed posterior model probability to estimate model uncertainty. Parameter estimation and model uncertainty estimation were implemented simultaneously by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC*) methods. We validated the methods using simulated data. We illustrated the methods using PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) speciation data and mortality data from Phoenix, Arizona, and Houston, Texas. The Phoenix data included counts of cardiovascular deaths and daily PM2.5 speciation data from 1995-1997. The Houston data included respiratory mortality data and 24-hour PM2.5 speciation data sampled every six days from a region near the Houston Ship Channel in years 2002-2005. We also developed a Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach that, while simultaneously dealing with the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions, incorporated spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites into the estimation of source profiles and contributions based on the discrete process convolution model for multivariate spatial processes. This new modeling approach was applied to 24-hour ambient air concentrations of 17 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured at nine monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas, during years 2000 to 2005. Simulation results indicated that our methods were accurate in identifying the true model and estimated parameters were close to the true values. The results from our methods agreed in general with previous studies on the source apportionment of the Phoenix data in terms of estimated source profiles and contributions. However, we had a greater number of statistically insignificant findings, which was likely a natural consequence of incorporating uncertainty in the estimated source contributions into the health-effects parameter estimation. For the Houston data, a model with five sources (that seemed to be Sulfate-Rich Secondary Aerosol, Motor Vehicles, Industrial Combustion, Soil/Crustal Matter, and Sea Salt) showed the highest posterior model probability among the candidate models considered when fitted simultaneously to the PM2.5 and mortality data. There was a statistically significant positive association between respiratory mortality and same-day PM2.5 concentrations attributed to one of the sources (probably industrial combustion). The Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach applied to the VOC data led to a highest posterior model probability for a model with five sources (that seemed to be refinery, petrochemical production, gasoline evaporation, natural gas, and vehicular exhaust) among several candidate models, with the number of sources varying between three and seven and with different identifiability conditions. Our multipollutant approach assessing source-specific health effects is more advantageous than a single-pollutant approach in that it can estimate total health effects from multiple pollutants and can also identify emission sources that are responsible for adverse health effects. Our Bayesian approach can incorporate not only uncertainty in the estimated source contributions, but also model uncertainty that has not been addressed in previous studies on assessing source-specific health effects. The new Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites, minimizing exposure misclassification and providing improved exposure estimates along with their uncertainty estimates, as well as accounting for uncertainty in the number of sources and identifiability conditions.

A spatial-temporal regression model to predict daily outdoor residential PAH concentrations in an epidemiologic study in Fresno, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noth, Elizabeth M.; Hammond, S. Katharine; Biging, Gregory S.; Tager, Ira B.

2011-05-01

BackgroundPolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are generated as a byproduct of combustion, and are associated with respiratory symptoms and increased risk of asthma attacks. ObjectivesTo assign daily, outdoor exposures to participants in the Fresno Asthmatic Children's Environment Study (FACES) using land use regression models for the sum of 4-, 5- and 6-ring PAHs (PAH456). MethodsPAH data were collected daily at the EPA Supersite in Fresno, CA from 10/2000 through 2/2007. From 2/2002 to 2/2003, intensive air pollution sampling was conducted at 83 homes of participants in the FACES study. These measurement data were combined with meteorological data, source data, and other spatial variables to form a land use regression model to assign daily exposure at all FACES homes for all years of the study (2001-2008). ResultsThe model for daily, outdoor residential PAH456 concentrations accounted for 80% of the between-home variability and 18% of the within-home variability. Both temporal and spatial variables were significant in the model. Traffic characteristics and home heating fuel were the main spatial explanatory variables. ConclusionsBecause spatial and temporal distributions of PAHs vary on an intra-urban scale, the location of the child's home within the urban setting plays an important role in the level of exposure that each child has to PAHs.

Modelling daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolution across Switzerland.

PubMed

de Hoogh, Kees; Héritier, Harris; Stafoggia, Massimo; Künzli, Nino; Kloog, Itai

2018-02-01

Spatiotemporal resolved models were developed predicting daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations across Switzerland from 2003 to 2013. Relatively sparse PM 2.5 monitoring data was supplemented by imputing PM 2.5 concentrations at PM 10 sites, using PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios at co-located sites. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations were first estimated at a 1 × 1km resolution across Switzerland, using Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) data in combination with spatiotemporal predictor data in a four stage approach. Mixed effect models (1) were used to predict PM 2.5 in cells with AOD but without PM 2.5 measurements (2). A generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing was applied to generate grid cell predictions for those grid cells where AOD was missing (3). Finally, local PM 2.5 predictions were estimated at each monitoring site by regressing the residuals from the 1 × 1km estimate against local spatial and temporal variables using machine learning techniques (4) and adding them to the stage 3 global estimates. The global (1 km) and local (100 m) models explained on average 73% of the total,71% of the spatial and 75% of the temporal variation (all cross validated) globally and on average 89% (total) 95% (spatial) and 88% (temporal) of the variation locally in measured PM 2.5 concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extending local canonical correlation analysis to handle general linear contrasts for FMRI data.

PubMed

Jin, Mingwu; Nandy, Rajesh; Curran, Tim; Cordes, Dietmar

2012-01-01

Local canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a multivariate method that has been proposed to more accurately determine activation patterns in fMRI data. In its conventional formulation, CCA has several drawbacks that limit its usefulness in fMRI. A major drawback is that, unlike the general linear model (GLM), a test of general linear contrasts of the temporal regressors has not been incorporated into the CCA formalism. To overcome this drawback, a novel directional test statistic was derived using the equivalence of multivariate multiple regression (MVMR) and CCA. This extension will allow CCA to be used for inference of general linear contrasts in more complicated fMRI designs without reparameterization of the design matrix and without reestimating the CCA solutions for each particular contrast of interest. With the proper constraints on the spatial coefficients of CCA, this test statistic can yield a more powerful test on the inference of evoked brain regional activations from noisy fMRI data than the conventional t-test in the GLM. The quantitative results from simulated and pseudoreal data and activation maps from fMRI data were used to demonstrate the advantage of this novel test statistic.

Extending Local Canonical Correlation Analysis to Handle General Linear Contrasts for fMRI Data

PubMed Central

Jin, Mingwu; Nandy, Rajesh; Curran, Tim; Cordes, Dietmar

2012-01-01

Local canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a multivariate method that has been proposed to more accurately determine activation patterns in fMRI data. In its conventional formulation, CCA has several drawbacks that limit its usefulness in fMRI. A major drawback is that, unlike the general linear model (GLM), a test of general linear contrasts of the temporal regressors has not been incorporated into the CCA formalism. To overcome this drawback, a novel directional test statistic was derived using the equivalence of multivariate multiple regression (MVMR) and CCA. This extension will allow CCA to be used for inference of general linear contrasts in more complicated fMRI designs without reparameterization of the design matrix and without reestimating the CCA solutions for each particular contrast of interest. With the proper constraints on the spatial coefficients of CCA, this test statistic can yield a more powerful test on the inference of evoked brain regional activations from noisy fMRI data than the conventional t-test in the GLM. The quantitative results from simulated and pseudoreal data and activation maps from fMRI data were used to demonstrate the advantage of this novel test statistic. PMID:22461786

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Sensitivity of chemical transport model simulations to the duration of chemical and transport operators: a case study with GEOS-Chem v10-01

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, S.; Martin, R. V.; Keller, C. A.

2015-11-01

Chemical transport models involve considerable computational expense. Fine temporal resolution offers accuracy at the expense of computation time. Assessment is needed of the sensitivity of simulation accuracy to the duration of chemical and transport operators. We conduct a series of simulations with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at different temporal and spatial resolutions to examine the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric composition to temporal resolution. Subsequently, we compare the tracers simulated with operator durations from 10 to 60 min as typically used by global chemical transport models, and identify the timesteps that optimize both computational expense and simulation accuracy. We found that longer transport timesteps increase concentrations of emitted species such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide since a more homogeneous distribution reduces loss through chemical reactions and dry deposition. The increased concentrations of ozone precursors increase ozone production at longer transport timesteps. Longer chemical timesteps decrease sulfate and ammonium but increase nitrate due to feedbacks with in-cloud sulfur dioxide oxidation and aerosol thermodynamics. The simulation duration decreases by an order of magnitude from fine (5 min) to coarse (60 min) temporal resolution. We assess the change in simulation accuracy with resolution by comparing the root mean square difference in ground-level concentrations of nitrogen oxides, ozone, carbon monoxide and secondary inorganic aerosols with a finer temporal or spatial resolution taken as truth. Simulation error for these species increases by more than a factor of 5 from the shortest (5 min) to longest (60 min) temporal resolution. Chemical timesteps twice that of the transport timestep offer more simulation accuracy per unit computation. However, simulation error from coarser spatial resolution generally exceeds that from longer timesteps; e.g. degrading from 2° × 2.5° to 4° × 5° increases error by an order of magnitude. We recommend prioritizing fine spatial resolution before considering different temporal resolutions in offline chemical transport models. We encourage the chemical transport model users to specify in publications the durations of operators due to their effects on simulation accuracy.

Vegetation Coverage and Impervious Surface Area Estimated Based on the Estarfm Model and Remote Sensing Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Rongming; Wang, Shu; Guo, Jiao; Guo, Liankun

2018-04-01

Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC) and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day) were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1) ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2) The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

A full Bayes before-after study accounting for temporal and spatial effects: Evaluating the safety impact of new signal installations.

PubMed

Sacchi, Emanuele; Sayed, Tarek; El-Basyouny, Karim

2016-09-01

Recently, important advances in road safety statistics have been brought about by methods able to address issues other than the choice of the best error structure for modeling crash data. In particular, accounting for spatial and temporal interdependence, i.e., the notion that the collision occurrence of a site or unit times depend on those of others, has become an important issue that needs further research. Overall, autoregressive models can be used for this purpose as they can specify that the output variable depends on its own previous values and on a stochastic term. Spatial effects have been investigated and applied mostly in the context of developing safety performance functions (SPFs) to relate crash occurrence to highway characteristics. Hence, there is a need for studies that attempt to estimate the effectiveness of safety countermeasures by including the spatial interdependence of road sites within the context of an observational before-after (BA) study. Moreover, the combination of temporal dynamics and spatial effects on crash frequency has not been explored in depth for SPF development. Therefore, the main goal of this research was to carry out a BA study accounting for spatial effects and temporal dynamics in evaluating the effectiveness of a road safety treatment. The countermeasure analyzed was the installation of traffic signals at unsignalized urban/suburban intersections in British Columbia (Canada). The full Bayes approach was selected as the statistical framework to develop the models. The results demonstrated that zone variation was a major component of total crash variability and that spatial effects were alleviated by clustering intersections together. Finally, the methodology used also allowed estimation of the treatment's effectiveness in the form of crash modification factors and functions with time trends. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A modeling approach for aerosol optical depth analysis during forest fire events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aube, Martin P.; O'Neill, Normand T.; Royer, Alain; Lavoue, David

2004-10-01

Measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are important indicators of aerosol particle behavior. Up to now the two standard techniques used for retrieving AOD are; (i) sun photometry which provides measurements of high temporal frequency and sparse spatial frequency, and (ii) satellite based approaches such as DDV (Dense Dark Vegetation) based inversion algorithms which yield AOD over dark targets in remotely sensed imagery. Although the latter techniques allow AOD retrieval over appreciable spatial domains, the irregular spatial pattern of dark targets and the typically low repeat frequencies of imaging satellites exclude the acquisition of AOD databases on a continuous spatio-temporal basis. We attempt to fill gaps in spatio-temporal AOD measurements using a new assimilation methodology that links AOD measurements and the predictions of a particulate matter Transport Model. This modelling package (AODSEM V2.0 for Aerosol Optical Depth Spatio-temporal Evolution Model) uses a size and aerosol type segregated semi-Lagrangian trajectory algorithm driven by analysed meteorological data. Its novelty resides in the fact that the model evolution may be tied to both ground based and satellite level AOD measurement and all physical processes have been optimized to track this important and robust parameter. We applied this methodology to a significant smoke event that occurred over the eastern part of North America in July 2002.

Robust Synchronization Models for Presentation System Using SMIL-Driven Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asnawi, Rustam; Ahmad, Wan Fatimah Wan; Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Awang

2013-01-01

Current common Presentation System (PS) models are slide based oriented and lack synchronization analysis either with temporal or spatial constraints. Such models, in fact, tend to lead to synchronization problems, particularly on parallel synchronization with spatial constraints between multimedia element presentations. However, parallel…

Leveraging organismal biology to forecast the effects of climate change.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Cannistra, Anthony F; John, Aji

2018-04-26

Despite the pressing need for accurate forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change, commonly used modelling approaches exhibit mixed performance because they omit many important aspects of how organisms respond to spatially and temporally variable environments. Integrating models based on organismal phenotypes at the physiological, performance and fitness levels can improve model performance. We summarize current limitations of environmental data and models and discuss potential remedies. The paper reviews emerging techniques for sensing environments at fine spatial and temporal scales, accounting for environmental extremes, and capturing how organisms experience the environment. Intertidal mussel data illustrate biologically important aspects of environmental variability. We then discuss key challenges in translating environmental conditions into organismal performance including accounting for the varied timescales of physiological processes, for responses to environmental fluctuations including the onset of stress and other thresholds, and for how environmental sensitivities vary across lifecycles. We call for the creation of phenotypic databases to parameterize forecasting models and advocate for improved sharing of model code and data for model testing. We conclude with challenges in organismal biology that must be solved to improve forecasts over the next decade.acclimation, biophysical models, ecological forecasting, extremes, microclimate, spatial and temporal variability.

Adding Spatially Correlated Noise to a Median Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, J. M.; Egert, A. R.; Dao, E. V.; Colman, J. J.; Parris, R. T.

2017-12-01

We describe a process for adding spatially correlated noise to a background ionospheric model, in this case the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). Monthly median models do a good job describing bulk features of the ionosphere in a median sense. It is well known that the ionosphere almost never actually looks like its median. For the purposes of constructing an Operational System Simulation Experiment, it may be desirable to construct an ionosphere more similar to a particular instant, hour, or day than to the monthly median. We will examine selected data from the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) database and estimate the amount of variance captured by the IRI model. We will then examine spatial and temporal correlations within the residuals. This analysis will be used to construct a temporal-spatial gridded ionosphere that represents a particular instantiation of those statistics.

Innovations in individual feature history management - The significance of feature-based temporal model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, J.; Seong, J.C.; Kim, B.; Usery, E.L.

2008-01-01

A feature relies on three dimensions (space, theme, and time) for its representation. Even though spatiotemporal models have been proposed, they have principally focused on the spatial changes of a feature. In this paper, a feature-based temporal model is proposed to represent the changes of both space and theme independently. The proposed model modifies the ISO's temporal schema and adds new explicit temporal relationship structure that stores temporal topological relationship with the ISO's temporal primitives of a feature in order to keep track feature history. The explicit temporal relationship can enhance query performance on feature history by removing topological comparison during query process. Further, a prototype system has been developed to test a proposed feature-based temporal model by querying land parcel history in Athens, Georgia. The result of temporal query on individual feature history shows the efficiency of the explicit temporal relationship structure. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

A suite of global reconstructed precipitation products and their error estimate by multivariate regression using empirical orthogonal functions: 1850-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, S. S.

2014-12-01

This presentation describes a suite of global precipitation products reconstructed by a multivariate regression method using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) expansion. The sampling errors of the reconstruction are estimated for each product datum entry. The maximum temporal coverage is 1850-present and the spatial coverage is quasi-global (75S, 75N). The temporal resolution ranges from 5-day, monthly, to seasonal and annual. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data from 1979-2008 are used to calculate the EOFs. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) gridded data are used to calculate the regression coefficients for reconstructions. The sampling errors of the reconstruction are analyzed in detail for different EOF modes. Our reconstructed 1900-2011 time series of the global average annual precipitation shows a 0.024 (mm/day)/100a trend, which is very close to the trend derived from the mean of 25 models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Our reconstruction examples of 1983 El Niño precipitation and 1917 La Niña precipitation (Figure 1) demonstrate that the El Niño and La Niña precipitation patterns are well reflected in the first two EOFs. The validation of our reconstruction results with GPCP makes it possible to use the reconstruction as the benchmark data for climate models. This will help the climate modeling community to improve model precipitation mechanisms and reduce the systematic difference between observed global precipitation, which hovers at around 2.7 mm/day for reconstructions and GPCP, and model precipitations, which have a range of 2.6-3.3 mm/day for CMIP5. Our precipitation products are publically available online, including digital data, precipitation animations, computer codes, readme files, and the user manual. This work is a joint effort between San Diego State University (Sam Shen, Nancy Tafolla, Barbara Sperberg, and Melanie Thorn) and University of Maryland (Phil Arkin, Tom Smith, Li Ren, and Li Dai) and supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Awards No. AGS-1015926 and AGS-1015957).

Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variability in Ammonia Emissions from Agricultural Fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.

2013-12-01

Ammonia (NH3), is an important component of the reactive nitrogen cycle and a precursor to formation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM). Predicting regional PM concentrations and deposition of nitrogen species to ecosystems requires representative emission inventories. Emission inventories have traditionally been developed using top down approaches and more recently from data assimilation based on satellite and ground based ambient concentrations and wet deposition data. The National Emission Inventory (NEI) indicates agricultural fertilization as the predominant contributor (56%) to NH3 emissions in Midwest USA, in 2002. However, due to limited understanding of the complex interactions between fertilizer usage, farm practices, soil and meteorological conditions and absence of detailed statistical data, such emission estimates are currently based on generic emission factors, time-averaged temporal factors and coarse spatial resolution. Given the significance of this source, our study focuses on developing an improved NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization at finer spatial and temporal scales for air quality modeling studies. Firstly, a high-spatial resolution 4 km x 4 km NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization has been developed for Illinois by modifying spatial allocation of emissions based on combining crop-specific fertilization rates with cropland distribution in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions model. Net emission estimates of our method are within 2% of NEI, since both methods are constrained by fertilizer sales data. However, we identified localized crop-specific NH3 emission hotspots at sub-county resolutions absent in NEI. Secondly, we have adopted the use of the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) Biogeochemistry model to simulate the physical and chemical processes that control volatilization of nitrogen as NH3 to the atmosphere after fertilizer application and resolve the variability at the hourly scale. Representative temporal factors are being developed to capture crop-specific NH3 emission variability by combining knowledge of local crop management practices with high resolution cropland and soil maps. This improved spatially and temporally dependent NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization is being prepared as a direct input to a state of the art air quality model to evaluate the effects of agricultural fertilization on regional air quality and atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen species.

Research on spatio-temporal database techniques for spatial information service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Rong; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuxiang; Fan, Rongshuang; Liu, Ping; Li, Qingyuan

2007-06-01

Geographic data should be described by spatial, temporal and attribute components, but the spatio-temporal queries are difficult to be answered within current GIS. This paper describes research into the development and application of spatio-temporal data management system based upon GeoWindows GIS software platform which was developed by Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping (CASM). Faced the current and practical requirements of spatial information application, and based on existing GIS platform, one kind of spatio-temporal data model which integrates vector and grid data together was established firstly. Secondly, we solved out the key technique of building temporal data topology, successfully developed a suit of spatio-temporal database management system adopting object-oriented methods. The system provides the temporal data collection, data storage, data management and data display and query functions. Finally, as a case study, we explored the application of spatio-temporal data management system with the administrative region data of multi-history periods of China as the basic data. With all the efforts above, the GIS capacity of management and manipulation in aspect of time and attribute of GIS has been enhanced, and technical reference has been provided for the further development of temporal geographic information system (TGIS).

The Impact of Horizontal and Temporal Resolution on Convection and Precipitation with High-Resolution GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William P.

2012-01-01

Using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 with the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core, the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on cloud properties will be evaluated. There are indications from examining convective cluster development in high resolution GEOS-5 forecasts that the temporal resolution within the model may playas significant a role as horizontal resolution. Comparing modeled convective cloud clusters versus satellite observations of brightness temperature, we have found that improved. temporal resolution in GEOS-S accounts for a significant portion of the improvements in the statistical distribution of convective cloud clusters. Using satellite simulators in GEOS-S we will compare the cloud optical properties of GEOS-S at various spatial and temporal resolutions with those observed from MODIS. The potential impact of these results on tropical cyclone formation and intensity will be examined as well.

Uni-directional optical pulses, temporal propagation, and spatial and temporal dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsler, P.

2018-02-01

I derive a temporally propagated uni-directional optical pulse equation valid in the few cycle limit. Temporal propagation is advantageous because it naturally preserves causality, unlike the competing spatially propagated models. The exact coupled bi-directional equations that this approach generates can be efficiently approximated down to a uni-directional form in cases where an optical pulse changes little over one optical cycle. They also permit a direct term-to-term comparison of the exact bi-directional theory with its corresponding approximate uni-directional theory. Notably, temporal propagation handles dispersion in a different way, and this difference serves to highlight existing approximations inherent in spatially propagated treatments of dispersion. Accordingly, I emphasise the need for future work in clarifying the limitations of the dispersion conversion required by these types of approaches; since the only alternative in the few cycle limit may be to resort to the much more computationally intensive full Maxwell equation solvers.

Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

Treesearch

Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

Impact of temporal, spatial and cascaded effects on the pulse formation in ultra-broadband parametric amplifiers.

PubMed

Lang, T; Harth, A; Matyschok, J; Binhammer, T; Schultze, M; Morgner, U

2013-01-14

A 2 + 1 dimensional nonlinear pulse propagation model is presented, illustrating the weighting of different effects for the parametric amplification of ultra-broadband spectra in different regimes of energy scaling. Typical features in the distribution of intensity and phase of state-of-the-art OPA-systems can be understood by cascaded spatial and temporal effects.

Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman; J. B. Dunham

2003-01-01

Metapopulation dynamics have emerged as a key consideration in conservation planning for salmonid fishes. Implicit to many models of spatially structured populations is a degree of synchrony, or correlation, among populations. We used a spatially and temporally extensive database of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central...

Evaluation of the global MODIS 30 arc-second spatially and temporally complete snow-free land surface albedo and reflectance anisotropy dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingsong; Wang, Zhuosen; Li, Zhan; Erb, Angela; Schaaf, Crystal B.

2017-06-01

Land surface albedo is an essential variable for surface energy and climate modeling as it describes the proportion of incident solar radiant flux that is reflected from the Earth's surface. To capture the temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of the land surface, satellite remote sensing must be used to monitor albedo accurately at a global scale. However, large data gaps caused by cloud or ephemeral snow have slowed the adoption of satellite albedo products by the climate modeling community. To address the needs of this community, we used a number of temporal and spatial gap-filling strategies to improve the spatial and temporal coverage of the global land surface MODIS BRDF, albedo and NBAR products. A rigorous evaluation of the gap-filled values shows good agreement with original high quality data (RMSE = 0.027 for the NIR band albedo, 0.020 for the red band albedo). This global snow-free and cloud-free MODIS BRDF and albedo dataset (established from 2001 to 2015) offers unique opportunities to monitor and assess the impact of the changes on the Earth's land surface.

Spatial-temporal and cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle.

PubMed

Wu, Chang-fu; Liu, L-J Sally; Cullen, Alison; Westberg, Hal; Williamson, John

2011-01-01

In the Seattle Air Toxics Monitoring Pilot Program, we measured 15 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) at 6 sites for more than a year between 2000 and 2002. Spatial-temporal variations were evaluated with random-effects models and principal component analyses. The potential health risks were further estimated based on the monitored data, with the incorporation of the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. It is found that the temporal variability was generally higher than the spatial variability for most air toxics. The highest temporal variability was observed for tetrachloroethylene (70% temporal vs. 34% spatial variability). Nevertheless, most air toxics still exhibited significant spatial variations, even after accounting for the temporal effects. These results suggest that it would require operating multiple air toxics monitoring sites over a significant period of time with proper monitoring frequency to better evaluate population exposure to HAPs. The median values of the estimated inhalation cancer risks ranged between 4.3 × 10⁻⁵ and 6.0 × 10⁻⁵, with the 5th and 95th percentile levels exceeding the 1 in a million level. VOCs as a whole contributed over 80% of the risk among the HAPs measured and arsenic contributed most substantially to the overall risk associated with metals. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

PubMed

Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Schliep, Erin M; Schaeffer, Robert N; Orians, Colin M; Orwig, David A; Preisser, Evan L

2018-05-01

A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Determinants of black carbon, particle mass and number concentrations in London transport microenvironments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, Ioar; Kumar, Prashant; Hagen-Zanker, Alex; Andrade, Maria de Fatima; Slovic, Anne Dorothee; Pritchard, John P.; Geurs, Karst T.

2017-07-01

We investigated the determinants of personal exposure concentrations of commuters' to black carbon (BC), ultrafine particle number concentrations (PNC), and particulate matter (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10) in different travel modes. We quantified the contribution of key factors that explain the variation of the previous pollutants in four commuting routes in London, each covered by four transport modes (car, bus, walk and underground). Models were performed for each pollutant, separately to assess the effect of meteorology (wind speed) or ambient concentrations (with either high spatial or temporal resolution). Concentration variations were mainly explained by wind speed or ambient concentrations and to a lesser extent by route and period of the day. In multivariate models with wind speed, the wind speed was the common significant predictor for all the pollutants in the above-ground modes (i.e., car, bus, walk); and the only predictor variable for the PM fractions. Wind speed had the strongest effect on PM during the bus trips, with an increase in 1 m s-1 leading to a decrease in 2.25, 2.90 and 4.98 μg m-3 of PM1, PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in car trips were better explained by ambient concentrations with high temporal resolution although from a single monitoring station. On the other hand, ambient concentrations with high spatial coverage but lower temporal resolution predicted better the concentrations in bus trips, due to bus routes passing through streets with a high variability of traffic intensity. In the underground models, wind speed was not significant and line and type of windows on the train explained 42% of the variation of PNC and 90% of all PM fractions. Trains in the district line with openable windows had an increase in concentrations of 1 684 cm-3 for PNC and 40.69 μg m-3 for PM2.5 compared with trains that had non-openable windows. The results from this work can be used to target efforts to reduce personal exposures of London commuters.

Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

2016-12-01

In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

Cross multivariate correlation coefficients as screening tool for analysis of concurrent EEG-fMRI recordings.

PubMed

Ji, Hong; Petro, Nathan M; Chen, Badong; Yuan, Zejian; Wang, Jianji; Zheng, Nanning; Keil, Andreas

2018-02-06

Over the past decade, the simultaneous recording of electroencephalogram (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data has garnered growing interest because it may provide an avenue towards combining the strengths of both imaging modalities. Given their pronounced differences in temporal and spatial statistics, the combination of EEG and fMRI data is however methodologically challenging. Here, we propose a novel screening approach that relies on a Cross Multivariate Correlation Coefficient (xMCC) framework. This approach accomplishes three tasks: (1) It provides a measure for testing multivariate correlation and multivariate uncorrelation of the two modalities; (2) it provides criterion for the selection of EEG features; (3) it performs a screening of relevant EEG information by grouping the EEG channels into clusters to improve efficiency and to reduce computational load when searching for the best predictors of the BOLD signal. The present report applies this approach to a data set with concurrent recordings of steady-state-visual evoked potentials (ssVEPs) and fMRI, recorded while observers viewed phase-reversing Gabor patches. We test the hypothesis that fluctuations in visuo-cortical mass potentials systematically covary with BOLD fluctuations not only in visual cortical, but also in anterior temporal and prefrontal areas. Results supported the hypothesis and showed that the xMCC-based analysis provides straightforward identification of neurophysiological plausible brain regions with EEG-fMRI covariance. Furthermore xMCC converged with other extant methods for EEG-fMRI analysis. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Neuroscience Research Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Moise, Aurel F.

2017-01-01

This study analyses tropical rainfall variability (on a range of temporal and spatial scales) in a set of parallel Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations at a range of horizontal resolutions, which are compared with two satellite-derived rainfall datasets. We focus on the shorter scales, i.e. from the native grid and time step of the model through sub-daily to seasonal, since previous studies have paid relatively little attention to sub-daily rainfall variability and how this feeds through to longer scales. We find that the behaviour of the deep convection parametrization in this model on the native grid and time step is largely independent of the grid-box size and time step length over which it operates. There is also little difference in the rainfall variability on larger/longer spatial/temporal scales. Tropical convection in the model on the native grid/time step is spatially and temporally intermittent, producing very large rainfall amounts interspersed with grid boxes/time steps of little or no rain. In contrast, switching off the deep convection parametrization, albeit at an unrealistic resolution for resolving tropical convection, results in very persistent (for limited periods), but very sporadic, rainfall. In both cases, spatial and temporal averaging smoothes out this intermittency. On the ˜ 100 km scale, for oceanic regions, the spectra of 3-hourly and daily mean rainfall in the configurations with parametrized convection agree fairly well with those from satellite-derived rainfall estimates, while at ˜ 10-day timescales the averages are overestimated, indicating a lack of intra-seasonal variability. Over tropical land the results are more varied, but the model often underestimates the daily mean rainfall (partly as a result of a poor diurnal cycle) but still lacks variability on intra-seasonal timescales. Ultimately, such work will shed light on how uncertainties in modelling small-/short-scale processes relate to uncertainty in climate change projections of rainfall distribution and variability, with a view to reducing such uncertainty through improved modelling of small-/short-scale processes.

Concentrations of environmental DNA (eDNA) reflect spawning salmon abundance at fine spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillotson, Michael D.; Kelly, Ryan P.; Duda, Jeff; Hoy, Marshal S.; Kralj, James; Quinn, Thomas P.

2018-01-01

Developing fast, cost-effective assessments of wild animal abundance is an important goal for many researchers, and environmental DNA (eDNA) holds much promise for this purpose. However, the quantitative relationship between species abundance and the amount of DNA present in the environment is likely to vary substantially among taxa and with ecological context. Here, we report a strong quantitative relationship between eDNA concentration and the abundance of spawning sockeye salmon in a small stream in Alaska, USA, where we took temporally- and spatially-replicated samples during the spawning period. This high-resolution dataset suggests that (1) eDNA concentrations vary significantly day-to-day, and likely within hours, in the context of the dynamic biological event of a salmon spawning season; (2) eDNA, as detected by species-specific quantitative PCR probes, seems to be conserved over short distances (tens of meters) in running water, but degrade quickly over larger scales (ca. 1.5 km); and (3) factors other than the mere presence of live, individual fish — such as location within the stream, live/dead ratio, and water temperature — can affect the eDNA-biomass correlation in space or time. A multivariate model incorporating both biotic and abiotic variables accounted for over 75% of the eDNA variance observed, suggesting that where a system is well-characterized, it may be possible to predict species' abundance from eDNA surveys, although we underscore that species- and system-specific variables are likely to limit the generality of any given quantitative model. Nevertheless, these findings provide an important step toward quantitative applications of eDNA in conservation and management.

Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

2016-04-01

Hydrologic ensemble forecasts driven by atmospheric ensemble prediction systems need statistical postprocessing in order to account for systematic errors in terms of both mean and spread. Runoff is an inherently multivariate process with typical events lasting from hours in case of floods to weeks or even months in case of droughts. This calls for multivariate postprocessing techniques that yield well calibrated forecasts in univariate terms and ensure a realistic temporal dependence structure at the same time. To this end, the univariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS; Gneiting et al., 2005) postprocessing method is combined with two different copula approaches that ensure multivariate calibration throughout the entire forecast horizon. These approaches comprise ensemble copula coupling (ECC; Schefzik et al., 2013), which preserves the dependence structure of the raw ensemble, and a Gaussian copula approach (GCA; Pinson and Girard, 2012), which estimates the temporal correlations from training observations. Both methods are tested in a case study covering three subcatchments of the river Rhine that represent different sizes and hydrological regimes: the Upper Rhine up to the gauge Maxau, the river Moselle up to the gauge Trier, and the river Lahn up to the gauge Kalkofen. The results indicate that both ECC and GCA are suitable for modelling the temporal dependences of probabilistic hydrologic forecasts (Hemri et al., 2015). References Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman (2005), Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation, Monthly Weather Review, 133(5), 1098-1118, DOI: 10.1175/MWR2904.1. Hemri, S., D. Lisniak, and B. Klein, Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting, Water Resources Research, 51(9), 7436-7451, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR016473. Pinson, P., and R. Girard (2012), Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation, Applied Energy, 96, 12-20, DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.004. Schefzik, R., T. L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting (2013), Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling, Statistical Science, 28, 616-640, DOI: 10.1214/13-STS443.

Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

2014-01-01

Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

2016-06-14

Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic setting, the stage of malaria elimination continuum, the characteristics of the RS variables and the analytical approach, which in turn, would support the channeling of intervention resources sustainably.

Introducing an operational method to forecast long-term regional drought based on the application of artificial intelligence capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Mitra Esmaeilzadeh; Ahani, Hossein; Hakimelahi, Hemila

2017-01-01

An effective forecast of the drought definitely gives lots of advantages in regard to the management of water resources being used in agriculture, industry, and households consumption. To introduce such a model applying simple data inputs, in this study a regional drought forecast method on the basis of artificial intelligence capabilities (artificial neural networks) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly series) has been presented in Fars Province of Iran. The precipitation data of 41 rain gauge stations were applied for computing SPI values. Besides, weather signals including Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NINO1+2, anomaly NINO1+2, NINO3, anomaly NINO3, NINO4, anomaly NINO4, NINO3.4, and anomaly NINO3.4 were also used as the predictor variables for SPI time series forecast the next 12 months. Frequent testing and validating steps were considered to obtain the best artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The forecasted values were mapped in verification sector then they were compared with the observed maps at the same dates. Results showed considerable spatial and temporal relationships even among the maps of different SPI time series. Also, the first 6 months forecasted maps showed an average of 73 % agreements with the observed ones. The most important finding and the strong point of this study was the fact that although drought forecast in each station and time series was completely independent, the relationships between spatial and temporal predictions remained. This strong point mainly referred to frequent testing and validating steps in order to explore the best drought forecast models from plenty of produced ANNs models. Finally, wherever the precipitation data are available, the practical application of the presented method is possible.

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

2016-01-01

Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic setting, the stage of malaria elimination continuum, the characteristics of the RS variables and the analytical approach, which in turn, would support the channeling of intervention resources sustainably. PMID:27314369

Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Organization of a Cell’s Proteome

PubMed Central

Beck, Martin; Topf, Maya; Frazier, Zachary; Tjong, Harianto; Xu, Min; Zhang, Shihua; Alber, Frank

2013-01-01

To increase our current understanding of cellular processes, such as cell signaling and division, knowledge is needed about the spatial and temporal organization of the proteome at different organizational levels. These levels cover a wide range of length and time scales: from the atomic structures of macromolecules for inferring their molecular function, to the quantitative description of their abundance, and distribution in the cell. Emerging new experimental technologies are greatly increasing the availability of such spatial information on the molecular organization in living cells. This review addresses three fields that have significantly contributed to our understanding of the proteome’s spatial and temporal organization: first, methods for the structure determination of individual macromolecular assemblies, specifically the fitting of atomic structures into density maps generated from electron microscopy techniques; second, research that visualizes the spatial distributions of these complexes within the cellular context using cryo electron tomography techniques combined with computational image processing; and third, methods for the spatial modeling of the dynamic organization of the proteome, specifically those methods for simulating reaction and diffusion of proteins and complexes in crowded intracellular fluids. The long-term goal is to integrate the varied data about a proteome’s organization into a spatially explicit, predictive model of cellular processes. PMID:21094684

MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOXICS (MEND-TOX): PART I, HYBRID COMPARTMENTAL-SPATIAL MODELING FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated hybrid spatial-compartmental modeling approach is presented for analyzing the dynamic distribution of chemicals in the multimedia environment. Information obtained from such analysis, which includes temporal chemical concentration profiles in various media, mass ...

Ametropia, retinal anatomy, and OCT abnormality patterns in glaucoma. 2. Impacts of optic nerve head parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baniasadi, Neda; Wang, Mengyu; Wang, Hui; Jin, Qingying; Elze, Tobias

2017-12-01

Clinicians use retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT) as an adjunct to glaucoma diagnosis. Ametropia is accompanied by changes to the optic nerve head (ONH), which may affect how OCT machines mark RNFLT measurements as abnormal. These changes in abnormality patterns may bias glaucoma diagnosis. Here, we investigate the relationship between OCT abnormality patterns and the following ONH-related and ametropia-associated parameters on 421 eyes of glaucoma patients: optic disc tilt and torsion, central retinal vessel trunk location (CRVTL), and nasal and temporal retinal curvature adjacent to ONH, quantified as nasal/temporal slopes of the inner limiting membrane. We applied multivariate logistic regression with abnormality marks as regressands to 40,401 locations of the peripapillary region and generated spatial maps of locations of false positive/negative abnormality marks independent of glaucoma severity. Effects of torsion and temporal slope were negligible. The effect of tilt could be explained by covariation with ametropia. For CRVTL/nasal slope, abnormality pattern shifts at 7.2%/23.5% of the peripapillary region were detected, respectively, independent of glaucoma severity and ametropia. Therefore, CRVTL and nasal curvature should be included in OCT RNFLT norms. Our spatial location maps may aid clinicians to improve diagnostic accuracy.

Assessing the quality of bottom water temperatures from the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bai; Tanaka, Kisei R.; Chen, Yong; Brady, Damian C.; Thomas, Andrew C.

2017-09-01

The Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) is an advanced coastal circulation model widely utilized for its ability to simulate spatially and temporally evolving three-dimensional geophysical conditions of complex and dynamic coastal regions. While a body of literature evaluates model skill in surface fields, independent studies validating model skill in bottom fields over large spatial and temporal scales are scarce because these fields cannot be remotely sensed. In this study, an evaluation of FVCOM skill in modeling bottom water temperature was conducted by comparison to hourly in situ observed bottom temperatures recorded by the Environmental Monitors on Lobster Traps (eMOLT), a program that attached thermistors to commercial lobster traps from 2001 to 2013. Over 2 × 106 pairs of FVCOM-eMOLT records were evaluated by a series of statistical measures to quantify accuracy and precision of the modeled data across the Northwest Atlantic Shelf region. The overall comparison between modeled and observed data indicates reliable skill of FVCOM (r2 = 0.72; root mean squared error = 2.28 °C). Seasonally, the average absolute errors show higher model skill in spring, fall and winter than summer. We speculate that this is due to the increased difficulty of modeling high frequency variability in the exact position of the thermocline and frontal zones. The spatial patterns of the residuals suggest that there is improved similarity between modeled and observed data at higher latitudes. We speculate that this is due to increased tidal mixing at higher latitudes in our study area that reduces stratification in winter, allowing improved model accuracy. Modeled bottom water temperatures around Cape Cod, the continental shelf edges, and at one location at the entrance to Penobscot Bay were characterized by relatively high errors. Constraints for future uses of FVCOM bottom water temperature are provided based on the uncertainties in temporal-spatial patterns. This study is novel as it is the first skill assessment of a regional ocean circulation model in bottom fields at high spatial and temporal scales in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf region.

Linear multivariate evaluation models for spatial perception of soundscape.

PubMed

Deng, Zhiyong; Kang, Jian; Wang, Daiwei; Liu, Aili; Kang, Joe Zhengyu

2015-11-01

Soundscape is a sound environment that emphasizes the awareness of auditory perception and social or cultural understandings. The case of spatial perception is significant to soundscape. However, previous studies on the auditory spatial perception of the soundscape environment have been limited. Based on 21 native binaural-recorded soundscape samples and a set of auditory experiments for subjective spatial perception (SSP), a study of the analysis among semantic parameters, the inter-aural-cross-correlation coefficient (IACC), A-weighted-equal sound-pressure-level (L(eq)), dynamic (D), and SSP is introduced to verify the independent effect of each parameter and to re-determine some of their possible relationships. The results show that the more noisiness the audience perceived, the worse spatial awareness they received, while the closer and more directional the sound source image variations, dynamics, and numbers of sound sources in the soundscape are, the better the spatial awareness would be. Thus, the sensations of roughness, sound intensity, transient dynamic, and the values of Leq and IACC have a suitable range for better spatial perception. A better spatial awareness seems to promote the preference slightly for the audience. Finally, setting SSPs as functions of the semantic parameters and Leq-D-IACC, two linear multivariate evaluation models of subjective spatial perception are proposed.

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lovejoy, S., E-mail: lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca; Lima, M. I. P. de; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra

2015-07-15

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spitemore » of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.« less

Multivariate Spatial Condition Mapping Using Subtractive Fuzzy Cluster Means

PubMed Central

Sabit, Hakilo; Al-Anbuky, Adnan

2014-01-01

Wireless sensor networks are usually deployed for monitoring given physical phenomena taking place in a specific space and over a specific duration of time. The spatio-temporal distribution of these phenomena often correlates to certain physical events. To appropriately characterise these events-phenomena relationships over a given space for a given time frame, we require continuous monitoring of the conditions. WSNs are perfectly suited for these tasks, due to their inherent robustness. This paper presents a subtractive fuzzy cluster means algorithm and its application in data stream mining for wireless sensor systems over a cloud-computing-like architecture, which we call sensor cloud data stream mining. Benchmarking on standard mining algorithms, the k-means and the FCM algorithms, we have demonstrated that the subtractive fuzzy cluster means model can perform high quality distributed data stream mining tasks comparable to centralised data stream mining. PMID:25313495

Mean field analysis of a spatial stochastic model of a gene regulatory network.

PubMed

Sturrock, M; Murray, P J; Matzavinos, A; Chaplain, M A J

2015-10-01

A gene regulatory network may be defined as a collection of DNA segments which interact with each other indirectly through their RNA and protein products. Such a network is said to contain a negative feedback loop if its products inhibit gene transcription, and a positive feedback loop if a gene product promotes its own production. Negative feedback loops can create oscillations in mRNA and protein levels while positive feedback loops are primarily responsible for signal amplification. It is often the case in real biological systems that both negative and positive feedback loops operate in parameter regimes that result in low copy numbers of gene products. In this paper we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of a single feedback loop in a eukaryotic cell. We first develop a simplified spatial stochastic model of a canonical feedback system (either positive or negative). Using a Gillespie's algorithm, we compute sample trajectories and analyse their corresponding statistics. We then derive a system of equations that describe the spatio-temporal evolution of the stochastic means. Subsequently, we examine the spatially homogeneous case and compare the results of numerical simulations with the spatially explicit case. Finally, using a combination of steady-state analysis and data clustering techniques, we explore model behaviour across a subregion of the parameter space that is difficult to access experimentally and compare the parameter landscape of our spatio-temporal and spatially-homogeneous models.

The study of combining Latin Hypercube Sampling method and LU decomposition method (LULHS method) for constructing spatial random field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, P. T.

2015-12-01

Groundwater modeling requires to assign hydrogeological properties to every numerical grid. Due to the lack of detailed information and the inherent spatial heterogeneity, geological properties can be treated as random variables. Hydrogeological property is assumed to be a multivariate distribution with spatial correlations. By sampling random numbers from a given statistical distribution and assigning a value to each grid, a random field for modeling can be completed. Therefore, statistics sampling plays an important role in the efficiency of modeling procedure. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is a stratified random sampling procedure that provides an efficient way to sample variables from their multivariate distributions. This study combines the the stratified random procedure from LHS and the simulation by using LU decomposition to form LULHS. Both conditional and unconditional simulations of LULHS were develpoed. The simulation efficiency and spatial correlation of LULHS are compared to the other three different simulation methods. The results show that for the conditional simulation and unconditional simulation, LULHS method is more efficient in terms of computational effort. Less realizations are required to achieve the required statistical accuracy and spatial correlation.

Modelling spatio-temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality in Ghana: a multivariate chemometric approach.

PubMed

Armah, Frederick Ato; Paintsil, Arnold; Yawson, David Oscar; Adu, Michael Osei; Odoi, Justice O

2017-08-01

Chemometric techniques were applied to evaluate the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality data for approximately 740 goldmining and agriculture-intensive locations in Ghana. The strongest linear and monotonic relationships occurred between Mn and Fe. Sixty-nine per cent of total variance in the dataset was explained by four variance factors: physicochemical properties, bacteriological quality, natural geologic attributes and anthropogenic factors (artisanal goldmining). There was evidence of significant differences in means of all trace metals and physicochemical parameters (p < 0.001) between goldmining and non-goldmining locations. Arsenic and turbidity produced very high value F's demonstrating that 'physical properties and chalcophilic elements' was the function that most discriminated between non-goldmining and goldmining locations. Variations in Escherichia coli and total coliforms were observed between the dry and wet seasons. The overall predictive accuracy of the discriminant function showed that non-goldmining locations were classified with slightly better accuracy (89%) than goldmining areas (69.6%). There were significant differences between the underlying distributions of Cd, Mn and Pb in the wet and dry seasons. This study emphasizes the practicality of chemometrics in the assessment and elucidation of complex water quality datasets to promote effective management of groundwater resources for sustaining human health.

A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1990-02-01

A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.

EIT image reconstruction with four dimensional regularization.

PubMed

Dai, Tao; Soleimani, Manuchehr; Adler, Andy

2008-09-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) reconstructs internal impedance images of the body from electrical measurements on body surface. The temporal resolution of EIT data can be very high, although the spatial resolution of the images is relatively low. Most EIT reconstruction algorithms calculate images from data frames independently, although data are actually highly correlated especially in high speed EIT systems. This paper proposes a 4-D EIT image reconstruction for functional EIT. The new approach is developed to directly use prior models of the temporal correlations among images and 3-D spatial correlations among image elements. A fast algorithm is also developed to reconstruct the regularized images. Image reconstruction is posed in terms of an augmented image and measurement vector which are concatenated from a specific number of previous and future frames. The reconstruction is then based on an augmented regularization matrix which reflects the a priori constraints on temporal and 3-D spatial correlations of image elements. A temporal factor reflecting the relative strength of the image correlation is objectively calculated from measurement data. Results show that image reconstruction models which account for inter-element correlations, in both space and time, show improved resolution and noise performance, in comparison to simpler image models.

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.; Jarchow, Christopher J.; Hossack, Blake R.

2015-01-01

Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A previously created Geographic Information Systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is tested and calibrated in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provide the spatial and temporal ground truth. Model param...

Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2013-12-01

Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network. Moreover, predictions of water-balance components are reported according to probabilistic metrics (e.g., percentiles, prediction intervals) that include both parameter and model uncertainties. These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics can inform the development of more accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variations in biogeochemical stores and fluxes (e.g., nutrients and carbon) in watersheds.

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Landguth, Erin L.; Luikart, Gordon; Infante, Dana M.; Whelan, Gary; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2015-01-01

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

The NIST Real-Time Control System (RCS): A Reference Model Architecture for Computational Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albus, James S.

1996-01-01

The Real-time Control System (RCS) developed at NIST and elsewhere over the past two decades defines a reference model architecture for design and analysis of complex intelligent control systems. The RCS architecture consists of a hierarchically layered set of functional processing modules connected by a network of communication pathways. The primary distinguishing feature of the layers is the bandwidth of the control loops. The characteristic bandwidth of each level is determined by the spatial and temporal integration window of filters, the temporal frequency of signals and events, the spatial frequency of patterns, and the planning horizon and granularity of the planners that operate at each level. At each level, tasks are decomposed into sequential subtasks, to be performed by cooperating sets of subordinate agents. At each level, signals from sensors are filtered and correlated with spatial and temporal features that are relevant to the control function being implemented at that level.

Disease Spread and Its Effect on Population Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model in which both species diffuse along a spatial gradient has been shown to exhibit temporal chaos at a fixed point in space. The proposed model is a modification of the model recently presented by Upadhyay and Roy [2014]. The spatial interactions among the species have been represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. The model incorporates the intrinsic growth rate of fish population which varies linearly with the depth of water. Numerical results show that diffusion can drive otherwise stable system into aperiodic behavior with sensitivity to initial conditions. We show that spatially induced chaos plays an important role in spatial pattern formation in heterogeneous environment. Spatiotemporal distributions of species have been simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural eco-epidemic systems. We found that in heterogeneous environment, the temporal dynamics of both the species are drastically different and show chaotic behavior. It was also found that the instability observed in the model is due to spatial heterogeneity and diffusion-driven. Cumulative death rate of predator has an appreciable effect on model dynamics as the spatial distribution of all constituent populations exhibit significant changes when this model parameter is changed and it acts as a regularizing factor.

Spatial and temporal variation of heavy metal risk and source in sediments of Dongting Lake wetland, mid-south China.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Liu, Jiayu; Yuan, Xingzhong; Zeng, Guangming; Lai, Xu; Li, Xiaodong; Wu, Haipeng; Yuan, Yujie; Li, Fei

2015-01-01

Surface sediments of Dongting Lake wetland were collected from ten sites to investigate variation trend, risk and sources of heavy metal distribution in dry seasons of 2011∼2013. The three-year mean concentrations (mg/kg) of Cr, Cu, Pb, Cd, Hg and As were 91.33, 36.27, 54.82, 4.39, 0.19 and 25.67, respectively, which were all higher than the corresponding background values. Sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) and Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) were used for the assessment of pollution level of heavy metals. The pollution risk of Cd, Hg and As were great and that of Cr needed urgent attention because of its obvious increase. Pollution load index (PLI) and geographic information system (GIS) methods were conducted to assess spatial and temporal variation of heavy metal contamination. Results confirmed an increased contamination contribution inflow from Xiang River. Multivariate statistical analyses were applied to identify contribution sources of heavy metal, which showed anthropogenic origin mainly from mining, smelting, chemical industry and agricultural activity.

Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Neighborhood Sociodemographic Characteristics and Food Stores

PubMed Central

Lamichhane, Archana P.; Warren, Joshua L.; Peterson, Marc; Rummo, Pasquale; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2015-01-01

The literature on food stores, neighborhood poverty, and race/ethnicity is mixed and lacks methods of accounting for complex spatial and temporal clustering of food resources. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations from Nielsen TDLinx (Nielsen Holdings N.V., New York, New York) spanning 7 years (2006–2012) and census tract-based neighborhood sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey (2006–2010) to assess associations between neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics and food store distributions in the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) of 4 US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and San Francisco, California). We fitted a space-time Poisson regression model that accounted for the complex spatial-temporal correlation structure of store locations by introducing space-time random effects in an intrinsic conditionally autoregressive model within a Bayesian framework. After accounting for census tract–level area, population, their interaction, and spatial and temporal variability, census tract poverty was significantly and positively associated with increasing expected numbers of supermarkets among tracts in all 4 MSAs. A similar positive association was observed for convenience stores in Birmingham, Minneapolis, and San Francisco; in Chicago, a positive association was observed only for predominantly white and predominantly black tracts. Our findings suggest a positive association between greater numbers of food stores and higher neighborhood poverty, with implications for policy approaches related to food store access by neighborhood poverty. PMID:25515169

Classification with spatio-temporal interpixel class dependency contexts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeon, Byeungwoo; Landgrebe, David A.

1992-01-01

A contextual classifier which can utilize both spatial and temporal interpixel dependency contexts is investigated. After spatial and temporal neighbors are defined, a general form of maximum a posterior spatiotemporal contextual classifier is derived. This contextual classifier is simplified under several assumptions. Joint prior probabilities of the classes of each pixel and its spatial neighbors are modeled by the Gibbs random field. The classification is performed in a recursive manner to allow a computationally efficient contextual classification. Experimental results with bitemporal TM data show significant improvement of classification accuracy over noncontextual pixelwise classifiers. This spatiotemporal contextual classifier should find use in many applications of remote sensing, especially when the classification accuracy is important.

Temporal, spatial, and environmental influences on the demographics of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; White, Gary C.; Harris, Richard B.; Cherry, Steve; Keating, Kim A.; Moody, Dave; Servheen, Christopher

2006-01-01

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded in range. Understanding temporal, environmental, and spatial variables responsible for this change is useful in evaluating what likely influenced grizzly bear demographics in the GYE and where future management efforts might benefit conservation and management. We used recent data from radio-marked bears to estimate reproduction (1983–2002) and survival (1983–2001); these we combined into models to evaluate demographic vigor (lambda [λ]). We explored the influence of an array of individual, temporal, and spatial covariates on demographic vigor.

Enhanced learning of proportional math through music training and spatial-temporal training.

PubMed

Graziano, A B; Peterson, M; Shaw, G L

1999-03-01

It was predicted, based on a mathematical model of the cortex, that early music training would enhance spatial-temporal reasoning. We have demonstrated that preschool children given six months of piano keyboard lessons improved dramatically on spatial-temporal reasoning while children in appropriate control groups did not improve. It was then predicted that the enhanced spatial-temporal reasoning from piano keyboard training could lead to enhanced learning of specific math concepts, in particular proportional math, which is notoriously difficult to teach using the usual language-analytic methods. We report here the development of Spatial-Temporal Math Video Game software designed to teach fractions and proportional math, and its strikingly successful use in a study involving 237 second-grade children (age range six years eight months-eight years five months). Furthermore, as predicted, children given piano keyboard training along with the Math Video Game training scored significantly higher on proportional math and fractions than children given a control training along with the Math Video Game. These results were readily measured using the companion Math Video Game Evaluation Program. The training time necessary for children on the Math Video Game is very short, and they rapidly reach a high level of performance. This suggests that, as predicted, we are tapping into fundamental cortical processes of spatial-temporal reasoning. This spatial-temporal approach is easily generalized to teach other math and science concepts in a complementary manner to traditional language-analytic methods, and at a younger age. The neural mechanisms involved in thinking through fractions and proportional math during training with the Math Video Game might be investigated in EEG coherence studies along with priming by specific music.

Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

2014-02-01

In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

2017-09-01

Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p < 0.001), presenting adjusted R 2 between 0.69 and 0.90. Center-Southern Brazil is mainly hit by frosts from mid-fall (April) to mid-spring (October). The period from November to March is considered as frost-free, being very rare a frost day within that period. Monthly F MET and F AGR presented significant sigmoidal relationships with T MN (p < 0.0001), with adjusted R 2 above of 0.82. The residuals of the frost day models were random, which means that the sigmoidal models performed quite well for interpreting the frost day variability throughout the study area. The highlands of Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais had in average more than 25 and 13 frosts per year, respectively, for F MET and F AGR. The F MET and F AGR maps developed in this study for Center-Southern Brazil is a useful tool for farmers, foresters, and researchers, since they contribute to reduce frost spatial and temporal uncertainty, helping in planning project for strategic purposes. Furthermore, the monthly F MET and F AGR maps for this Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT: A GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extens...

Visualization of Spatio-Temporal Relations in Movement Event Using Multi-View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, K.; Gu, D.; Fang, F.; Wang, Y.; Liu, H.; Zhao, W.; Zhang, M.; Li, Q.

2017-09-01

Spatio-temporal relations among movement events extracted from temporally varying trajectory data can provide useful information about the evolution of individual or collective movers, as well as their interactions with their spatial and temporal contexts. However, the pure statistical tools commonly used by analysts pose many difficulties, due to the large number of attributes embedded in multi-scale and multi-semantic trajectory data. The need for models that operate at multiple scales to search for relations at different locations within time and space, as well as intuitively interpret what these relations mean, also presents challenges. Since analysts do not know where or when these relevant spatio-temporal relations might emerge, these models must compute statistical summaries of multiple attributes at different granularities. In this paper, we propose a multi-view approach to visualize the spatio-temporal relations among movement events. We describe a method for visualizing movement events and spatio-temporal relations that uses multiple displays. A visual interface is presented, and the user can interactively select or filter spatial and temporal extents to guide the knowledge discovery process. We also demonstrate how this approach can help analysts to derive and explain the spatio-temporal relations of movement events from taxi trajectory data.

Generating High-Temporal and Spatial Resolution TIR Image Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero-Huerta, M.; Lagüela, S.; Alfieri, S. M.; Menenti, M.

2017-09-01

Remote sensing imagery to monitor global biophysical dynamics requires the availability of thermal infrared data at high temporal and spatial resolution because of the rapid development of crops during the growing season and the fragmentation of most agricultural landscapes. Conversely, no single sensor meets these combined requirements. Data fusion approaches offer an alternative to exploit observations from multiple sensors, providing data sets with better properties. A novel spatio-temporal data fusion model based on constrained algorithms denoted as multisensor multiresolution technique (MMT) was developed and applied to generate TIR synthetic image data at both temporal and spatial high resolution. Firstly, an adaptive radiance model is applied based on spectral unmixing analysis of . TIR radiance data at TOA (top of atmosphere) collected by MODIS daily 1-km and Landsat - TIRS 16-day sampled at 30-m resolution are used to generate synthetic daily radiance images at TOA at 30-m spatial resolution. The next step consists of unmixing the 30 m (now lower resolution) images using the information about their pixel land-cover composition from co-registered images at higher spatial resolution. In our case study, TIR synthesized data were unmixed to the Sentinel 2 MSI with 10 m resolution. The constrained unmixing preserves all the available radiometric information of the 30 m images and involves the optimization of the number of land-cover classes and the size of the moving window for spatial unmixing. Results are still being evaluated, with particular attention for the quality of the data streams required to apply our approach.

A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

2007-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Soil Erosion as a stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casper, Markus C.

2015-04-01

The main tools to provide estimations concerning risk and amount of erosion are different types of soil erosion models: on the one hand, there are empirically based model concepts on the other hand there are more physically based or process based models. However, both types of models have substantial weak points. All empirical model concepts are only capable of providing rough estimates over larger temporal and spatial scales, they do not account for many driving factors that are in the scope of scenario related analysis. In addition, the physically based models contain important empirical parts and hence, the demand for universality and transferability is not given. As a common feature, we find, that all models rely on parameters and input variables, which are to certain, extend spatially and temporally averaged. A central question is whether the apparent heterogeneity of soil properties or the random nature of driving forces needs to be better considered in our modelling concepts. Traditionally, researchers have attempted to remove spatial and temporal variability through homogenization. However, homogenization has been achieved through physical manipulation of the system, or by statistical averaging procedures. The price for obtaining this homogenized (average) model concepts of soils and soil related processes has often been a failure to recognize the profound importance of heterogeneity in many of the properties and processes that we study. Especially soil infiltrability and the resistance (also called "critical shear stress" or "critical stream power") are the most important empirical factors of physically based erosion models. The erosion resistance is theoretically a substrate specific parameter, but in reality, the threshold where soil erosion begins is determined experimentally. The soil infiltrability is often calculated with empirical relationships (e.g. based on grain size distribution). Consequently, to better fit reality, this value needs to be corrected experimentally. To overcome this disadvantage of our actual models, soil erosion models are needed that are able to use stochastic directly variables and parameter distributions. There are only some minor approaches in this direction. The most advanced is the model "STOSEM" proposed by Sidorchuk in 2005. In this model, only a small part of the soil erosion processes is described, the aggregate detachment and the aggregate transport by flowing water. The concept is highly simplified, for example, many parameters are temporally invariant. Nevertheless, the main problem is that our existing measurements and experiments are not geared to provide stochastic parameters (e.g. as probability density functions); in the best case they deliver a statistical validation of the mean values. Again, we get effective parameters, spatially and temporally averaged. There is an urgent need for laboratory and field experiments on overland flow structure, raindrop effects and erosion rate, which deliver information on spatial and temporal structure of soil and surface properties and processes.

The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.R.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Hay, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Wilby, R.

2004-01-01

A number of statistical methods that are used to provide local-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature do not contain realistic spatial covariability between neighboring stations or realistic temporal persistence for subsequent forecast lead times. To demonstrate this point, output from a global-scale numerical weather prediction model is used in a stepwise multiple linear regression approach to downscale precipitation and temperature to individual stations located in and around four study basins in the United States. Output from the forecast model is downscaled for lead times up to 14 days. Residuals in the regression equation are modeled stochastically to provide 100 ensemble forecasts. The precipitation and temperature ensembles from this approach have a poor representation of the spatial variability and temporal persistence. The spatial correlations for downscaled output are considerably lower than observed spatial correlations at short forecast lead times (e.g., less than 5 days) when there is high accuracy in the forecasts. At longer forecast lead times, the downscaled spatial correlations are close to zero. Similarly, the observed temporal persistence is only partly present at short forecast lead times. A method is presented for reordering the ensemble output in order to recover the space-time variability in precipitation and temperature fields. In this approach, the ensemble members for a given forecast day are ranked and matched with the rank of precipitation and temperature data from days randomly selected from similar dates in the historical record. The ensembles are then reordered to correspond to the original order of the selection of historical data. Using this approach, the observed intersite correlations, intervariable correlations, and the observed temporal persistence are almost entirely recovered. This reordering methodology also has applications for recovering the space-time variability in modeled streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

RSS Fingerprint Based Indoor Localization Using Sparse Representation with Spatio-Temporal Constraint

PubMed Central

Piao, Xinglin; Zhang, Yong; Li, Tingshu; Hu, Yongli; Liu, Hao; Zhang, Ke; Ge, Yun

2016-01-01

The Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprint-based indoor localization is an important research topic in wireless network communications. Most current RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization methods do not explore and utilize the spatial or temporal correlation existing in fingerprint data and measurement data, which is helpful for improving localization accuracy. In this paper, we propose an RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization method by integrating the spatio-temporal constraints into the sparse representation model. The proposed model utilizes the inherent spatial correlation of fingerprint data in the fingerprint matching and uses the temporal continuity of the RSS measurement data in the localization phase. Experiments on the simulated data and the localization tests in the real scenes show that the proposed method improves the localization accuracy and stability effectively compared with state-of-the-art indoor localization methods. PMID:27827882

Simulation study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of focused microwave beam discharge in nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wei; Zhou, Qianhong; Dong, Zhiwei

2018-01-01

This paper reports a simulation study on a focused microwave (frequency 9.4 GHz, pulse width 2.5 μs, and peak electric field 1.2 kV/cm) discharge in 200 Pa nitrogen. A one-dimensional (1D) fluid model is based on the wave equation for the microwave field propagating through the gas breakdown plasma, the continuity equations for electron, ion and neutral particle densities, and the energy balance equations for mean electron temperature, and nitrogen vibrational and translational temperatures. These equations are numerically solved in a self-consistent manner with a simplified plasma chemistry set, in which the reaction rates involving electrons are calculated from the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) using a two-term expansion method. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the focused microwave breakdown in nitrogen are demonstrated, which include the amplitude of the microwave electric field, and the densities and temperatures of the plasma components. The temporal evolution of the plasma electron density agrees reasonably well with that measured with a microwave interferometer. The spatial-temporal distributions of metastable states are discussed on the plasma chemistry and the character of mean electron temperature. The spatially integrated N2(C3) density shows similar trends with the measured temporal intensity of optical emission spectroscopy, except for a time delay of 100-300 ns. The quantitative discrepancies are explained in light of limitations of the 1D model with a two-term expansion of EEDF. The theoretical model is found to describe the gas breakdown plasma generated by focused microwave beams at least qualitatively.

Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: 2. Local and column aerosol optical properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsui, Hitoshi; Koike, Makoto; Kondo, Yutaka

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-chem model calculations were conducted to study aerosol optical properties around Beijing, China, during the Campaign of Air Quality Research in Beijing and Surrounding Region 2006 (CAREBeijing-2006) period. In this paper, we interpret aerosol optical properties in terms of aerosol mass concentrations and their chemical compositions by linking model calculations with measurements. In general, model calculations reproduced observed features of spatial and temporal variations of various surface and column aerosol optical parameters in and around Beijing. Spatial and temporal variations of aerosol absorption, scattering, and extinction coefficient corresponded well to those of elemental carbon (primary aerosol),more » sulfate (secondary aerosol), and the total aerosol mass concentration, respectively. These results show that spatial and temporal variations of the absorption coefficient are controlled by local emissions (within 100 km around Beijing during the preceding 24 h), while those of the scattering coefficient are controlled by regional-scale emissions (within 500 km around Beijing during the preceding 3 days) under synoptic-scale meteorological conditions, as discussed in our previous study of aerosol mass concentration. Vertical profiles of aerosol extinction revealed that the contribution of secondary aerosols and their water uptake increased with altitude within the planetary boundary layer, leading to a considerable increase in column aerosol optical depth (AOD) around Beijing. These effects are the main factors causing differences in regional and temporal variations between particulate matter (PM) mass concentration at the surface and column AOD over a wide region in the northern part of the Great North China Plain.« less

Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

2014-05-01

Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

Improving satellite-based post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, P.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Climate change and anthropogenic factors contribute to the increased frequency, duration, and size of wildfires, which can alter ecosystem and hydrological processes. The loss of vegetation canopy and ground cover reduces interception and alters evapotranspiration (ET) dynamics in riparian areas, which can impact rainfall-runoff partitioning. Previous research evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of ET based on burn severity and observed an annual decrease of 120 mm on average for three years after fire. Building upon these results, this research focuses on the Coyote Fire in San Diego, California (USA), which burned a total of 76 km2 in 2003 to calibrate and improve satellite-based ET estimates in semi-arid regions affected by wildfire. The current work utilizes satellite-based products and techniques such as the Google Earth Engine Application programming interface (API). Various ET models (ie. Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop)) are compared to the latent heat flux from two AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers, Sky Oaks Young (US-SO3), and Old Stand (US-SO2), from 2000 - 2015. The Old Stand tower has a low burn severity and the Young Stand tower has a moderate to high burn severity. Both towers are used to validate spatial ET estimates. Furthermore, variables and indices, such as Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) are utilized to evaluate satellite-based ET through a multivariate statistical analysis at both sites. This point-scale study will able to improve ET estimates in spatially diverse regions. Results from this research will contribute to the development of a post-wildfire ET model for semi-arid regions. Accurate estimates of post-fire ET will provide a better representation of vegetation and hydrologic recovery, which can be used to improve hydrologic models and predictions.

Spatial-temporal analysis of the of the risk of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bett, B.; Omolo, A.; Hansen, F.; Notenbaert, A.; Kemp, S.

2012-04-01

Historical data on Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks in Kenya covering the period 1951 - 2010 were analyzed using a logistic regression model to identify factors associated with RVF occurrence. The analysis used a division, an administrative unit below a district, as the unit of analysis. The infection status of each division was defined on a monthly time scale and used as a dependent variable. Predictors investigated include: monthly precipitation (minimum, maximum and total), normalized difference vegetation index, altitude, agro-ecological zone, presence of game, livestock and human population densities, the number of times a division has had an outbreak before and time interval in months between successive outbreaks (used as a proxy for immunity). Both univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted. The models used incorporated an auto-regressive correlation matrix to account for clustering of observations in time, while dummy variables were fitted in the multivariable model to account for spatial relatedness/topology between divisions. This last procedure was followed because it is expected that the risk of RVF occurring in a given division increases when its immediate neighbor gets infected. Functional relationships between the continuous and the outcome variables were assessed to ensure that the linearity assumption was met. Deviance and leverage residuals were also generated from the final model and used for evaluating the goodness of fit of the model. Descriptive analyzes indicate that a total of 91 divisions in 42 districts (of the original 69 districts in place by 1999) reported RVF outbreaks at least once over the period. The mean interval between outbreaks was determined to be about 43 months. Factors that were positively associated with RVF occurrence include increased precipitation, high outbreak interval and the number of times a division has been infected or reported an outbreak. The model will be validated and used for developing an RVF forecasting system. This forecasting system can then be used with the existing regional RVF prediction tools such as EMPRES-i to downscale RVF risk predictions to country-specific scales and subsequently link them with decision support systems. The ultimate aim is to increase the capacity of the national institutions to formulate appropriate RVF mitigation measures.

A simple model for factory distribution: Historical effect in an industry city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uehara, Takashi; Sato, Kazunori; Morita, Satoru; Maeda, Yasunobu; Yoshimura, Jin; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2016-02-01

The construction and discontinuance processes of factories are complicated problems in sociology. We focus on the spatial and temporal changes of factories at Hamamatsu city in Japan. Real data indicate that the clumping degree of factories decreases as the density of factory increases. To represent the spatial and temporal changes of factories, we apply "contact process" which is one of cellular automata. This model roughly explains the dynamics of factory distribution. We also find "historical effect" in spatial distribution. Namely, the recent factories have been dispersed due to the past distribution during the period of economic bubble. This effect may be related to heavy shock in Japanese stock market.

Temporal Data-Driven Sleep Scheduling and Spatial Data-Driven Anomaly Detection for Clustered Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Gang; He, Bin; Huang, Hongwei; Tang, Limin

2016-01-01

The spatial–temporal correlation is an important feature of sensor data in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Most of the existing works based on the spatial–temporal correlation can be divided into two parts: redundancy reduction and anomaly detection. These two parts are pursued separately in existing works. In this work, the combination of temporal data-driven sleep scheduling (TDSS) and spatial data-driven anomaly detection is proposed, where TDSS can reduce data redundancy. The TDSS model is inspired by transmission control protocol (TCP) congestion control. Based on long and linear cluster structure in the tunnel monitoring system, cooperative TDSS and spatial data-driven anomaly detection are then proposed. To realize synchronous acquisition in the same ring for analyzing the situation of every ring, TDSS is implemented in a cooperative way in the cluster. To keep the precision of sensor data, spatial data-driven anomaly detection based on the spatial correlation and Kriging method is realized to generate an anomaly indicator. The experiment results show that cooperative TDSS can realize non-uniform sensing effectively to reduce the energy consumption. In addition, spatial data-driven anomaly detection is quite significant for maintaining and improving the precision of sensor data. PMID:27690035

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America

PubMed Central

Arcoverde, Marcos Augusto Moraes; Ramos, Antônio Carlos Viera; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thais Zamboni; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Alves, Josilene Dália; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Silva-Sobrinho, Reinaldo Antônio; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Tavares, Clodis Maria; Yamamura, Mellina; Frade, Marco Andrey Cipriani; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

Background Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. Methods This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05). Results Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (β = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (β = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. Conclusion The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study’s highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region. PMID:29624595

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

Complex Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystem with Nonlinear Harvesting: Application to Chilika Lake in Odisha, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Tiwari, S. K.; Roy, Parimita

2015-06-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial and temporal dynamical interactions among the species of wetland ecosystem through a mathematical model. The model represents the population dynamics of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish species found in Chilika lake, Odisha, India. Nonlinear stability analysis of both the temporal and spatial models has been carried out. Maximum sustainable yield and optimal harvesting policy have been studied for a nonspatial model system. Numerical simulation has been performed to figure out the parameters responsible for the complex dynamics of the wetland system. Significant outcomes of our numerical findings and their interpretations from an ecological point of view are provided in this paper. Numerical simulation of spatial model exhibits some interesting and beautiful patterns. We have also pointed out the parameters that are responsible for the good health of wetland ecosystem.

Schistosomiasis Breeding Environment Situation Analysis in Dongting Lake Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chuanrong; Jia, Yuanyuan; Ma, Lingling; Liu, Zhaoyan; Qian, Yonggang

2013-01-01

Monitoring environmental characteristics, such as vegetation, soil moisture et al., of Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis)’ spatial/temporal distribution is of vital importance to the schistosomiasis prevention and control. In this study, the relationship between environmental factors derived from remotely sensed data and the density of O. hupensis was analyzed by a multiple linear regression model. Secondly, spatial analysis of the regression residual was investigated by the semi-variogram method. Thirdly, spatial analysis of the regression residual and the multiple linear regression model were both employed to estimate the spatial variation of O. hupensis density. Finally, the approach was used to monitor and predict the spatial and temporal variations of oncomelania of Dongting Lake region, China. And the areas of potential O. hupensis habitats were predicted and the influence of Three Gorges Dam (TGB)project on the density of O. hupensis was analyzed.

A Flexible Spatio-Temporal Model for Air Pollution with Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Covariates.

PubMed

Lindström, Johan; Szpiro, Adam A; Sampson, Paul D; Oron, Assaf P; Richards, Mark; Larson, Tim V; Sheppard, Lianne

2014-09-01

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system (GIS) covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of NO x in the Los Angeles area during a ten year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated R 2 of approximately 0.7 at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.

Spatio-temporal wildland arson crime functions

Treesearch

David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildland arson creates damages to structures and timber and affects the health and safety of people living in rural and wildland urban interface areas. We develop a model that incorporates temporal autocorrelations and spatial correlations in wildland arson ignitions in Florida. A Poisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p)...

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Means and Variability of Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Uptake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal Dean; Walker, Gregory K.; Collatz, George J.; Thornton, Peter E.

2013-01-01

Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

High resolution tempo-spatial ozone prediction with SVM and LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, D.; Zhang, Y.; Qu, Z.; Sadighi, K.; Coffey, E.; LIU, Q.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.; Dick, R.; Shang, L.; Lv, Q.

2017-12-01

To investigate and predict the exposure of ozone and other pollutants in urban areas, we utilize data from various infrastructures including EPA, NOAA and RIITS from government of Los Angeles and construct statistical models to conduct ozone concentration prediction in Los Angeles areas at finer spatial and temporal granularity. Our work involves cyber data such as traffic, roads and population data as features for prediction. Two statistical models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM, deep learning method) are used for prediction. . Our experiments show that kernelized SVM gains better prediction performance when taking traffic counts, road density and population density as features, with a prediction RMSE of 7.99 ppb for all-time ozone and 6.92 ppb for peak-value ozone. With simulated NOx from Chemical Transport Model(CTM) as features, SVM generates even better prediction performance, with a prediction RMSE of 6.69ppb. We also build LSTM, which has shown great advantages at dealing with temporal sequences, to predict ozone concentration by treating ozone concentration as spatial-temporal sequences. Trained by ozone concentration measurements from the 13 EPA stations in LA area, the model achieves 4.45 ppb RMSE. Besides, we build a variant of this model which adds spatial dynamics into the model in the form of transition matrix that reveals new knowledge on pollutant transition. The forgetting gate of the trained LSTM is consistent with the delay effect of ozone concentration and the trained transition matrix shows spatial consistency with the common direction of winds in LA area.

Selective 4D modelling framework for spatial-temporal land information management system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doulamis, Anastasios; Soile, Sofia; Doulamis, Nikolaos; Chrisouli, Christina; Grammalidis, Nikos; Dimitropoulos, Kosmas; Manesis, Charalambos; Potsiou, Chryssy; Ioannidis, Charalabos

2015-06-01

This paper introduces a predictive (selective) 4D modelling framework where only the spatial 3D differences are modelled at the forthcoming time instances, while regions of no significant spatial-temporal alterations remain intact. To accomplish this, initially spatial-temporal analysis is applied between 3D digital models captured at different time instances. So, the creation of dynamic change history maps is made. Change history maps indicate spatial probabilities of regions needed further 3D modelling at forthcoming instances. Thus, change history maps are good examples for a predictive assessment, that is, to localize surfaces within the objects where a high accuracy reconstruction process needs to be activated at the forthcoming time instances. The proposed 4D Land Information Management System (LIMS) is implemented using open interoperable standards based on the CityGML framework. CityGML allows the description of the semantic metadata information and the rights of the land resources. Visualization aspects are also supported to allow easy manipulation, interaction and representation of the 4D LIMS digital parcels and the respective semantic information. The open source 3DCityDB incorporating a PostgreSQL geo-database is used to manage and manipulate 3D data and their semantics. An application is made to detect the change through time of a 3D block of plots in an urban area of Athens, Greece. Starting with an accurate 3D model of the buildings in 1983, a change history map is created using automated dense image matching on aerial photos of 2010. For both time instances meshes are created and through their comparison the changes are detected.

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Jiayin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-01-01

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs. PMID:29117152

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zheng, Haifeng; Li, Jiayin; Feng, Xinxin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-11-08

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs .

Validating modelled variable surface saturation in the riparian zone with thermal infrared images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Barbara; Klaus, Julian; Frei, Sven; Frentress, Jay; Pfister, Laurent; Hopp, Luisa

2015-04-01

Variable contributing areas and hydrological connectivity have become prominent new concepts for hydrologic process understanding in recent years. The dynamic connectivity within the hillslope-riparian-stream (HRS) system is known to have a first order control on discharge generation and especially the riparian zone functions as runoff buffering or producing zone. However, despite their importance, the highly dynamic processes of contraction and extension of saturation within the riparian zone and its impact on runoff generation still remain not fully understood. In this study, we analysed the potential of a distributed, fully coupled and physically based model (HydroGeoSphere) to represent the spatial and temporal water flux dynamics of a forested headwater HRS system (6 ha) in western Luxembourg. The model was set up and parameterised under consideration of experimentally-derived knowledge of catchment structure and was run for a period of four years (October 2010 to August 2014). For model evaluation, we especially focused on the temporally varying spatial patterns of surface saturation. We used ground-based thermal infrared (TIR) imagery to map surface saturation with a high spatial and temporal resolution and collected 20 panoramic snapshots of the riparian zone (ca. 10 by 20 m) under different hydrologic conditions. These TIR panoramas were used in addition to several classical discharge and soil moisture time series for a spatially-distributed model validation. In a manual calibration process we optimised model parameters (e.g. porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, evaporation depth) to achieve a better agreement between observed and modelled discharges and soil moistures. The subsequent validation of surface saturation patterns by a visual comparison of processed TIR panoramas and corresponding model output panoramas revealed an overall good accordance for all but one region that was always too dry in the model. However, quantitative comparisons of modelled and observed saturated pixel percentages and of their modelled and measured relationships to concurrent discharges revealed remarkable similarities. During the calibration process we observed that surface saturation patterns were mostly affected by changing the soil properties of the topsoil in the riparian zone, but that the discharge behaviour did not change substantially at the same time. This effect of various spatial patterns occurring concomitant to a nearly unchanged integrated response demonstrates the importance of spatially distributed validation data. Our study clearly benefited from using different kinds of data - spatially integrated and distributed, temporally continuous and discrete - for the model evaluation procedure.

Time-varying correlations in global real estate markets: A multivariate GARCH with spatial effects approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Huaying; Liu, Zhixue; Weng, Yingliang

2017-04-01

The present study applies the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) with spatial effects approach for the analysis of the time-varying conditional correlations and contagion effects among global real estate markets. A distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that it can simultaneously capture the spatial interactions and the dynamic conditional correlations compared with the traditional MGARCH models. Results reveal that the estimated dynamic conditional correlations have exhibited significant increases during the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, thereby suggesting contagion effects among global real estate markets. The analysis further indicates that the returns of the regional real estate markets that are in close geographic and economic proximities exhibit strong co-movement. In addition, evidence of significantly positive leverage effects in global real estate markets is also determined. The findings have significant implications on global portfolio diversification opportunities and risk management practices.

Space-Time Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villarreal, James A.; Shelton, Robert O.

1992-01-01

Concept of space-time neural network affords distributed temporal memory enabling such network to model complicated dynamical systems mathematically and to recognize temporally varying spatial patterns. Digital filters replace synaptic-connection weights of conventional back-error-propagation neural network.

Modeling Pathologic Response of Esophageal Cancer to Chemoradiation Therapy Using Spatial-Temporal {sup 18}F-FDG PET Features, Clinical Parameters, and Demographics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Hao; Tan, Shan; Department of Control Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan

2014-01-01

Purpose: To construct predictive models using comprehensive tumor features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods and Materials: This study included 20 patients who underwent trimodality therapy (CRT + surgery) and underwent {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) both before and after CRT. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (eg, standardized uptake value [SUV]{sub max}, tumor diameter); (2) clinical parameters (eg, TNM stage, histology) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changesmore » resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, cross-validations being used to avoid model overfitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated by confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). With the use of spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications)—results that were significantly better than when conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone were used. For groups with many tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than did the LR model. Conclusions: The SVM model that used all features including spatial-temporal PET features accurately and precisely predicted pathologic tumor response to CRT in esophageal cancer.« less

Using Logistic Regression and Random Forests multivariate statistical methods for landslide spatial probability assessment in North-Est Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; Esposito, Carlo; Scarascia-Mugnozza, Gabriele

2015-04-01

North-East Sicily is strongly exposed to shallow landslide events. On October, 1st 2009 a severe rainstorm (225.5 mm of cumulative rainfall in 9 hours) caused flash floods and more than 1000 landslides, which struck several small villages as Giampilieri, Altolia, Molino, Pezzolo, Scaletta Zanclea, Itala, with 31 fatalities, 6 missing persons and damage to buildings and transportation infrastructures. Landslides, mainly consisting in earth and debris translational slides evolving into debris flows, triggered on steep slopes involving colluvium and regolith materials which cover the underlying metamorphic bedrock of Peloritani Mountains. In this area catchments are small (about 10 square kilometres), elongated, with steep slopes, low order streams, short time of concentration, and discharge directly into the sea. In the past, landslides occurred at Altolia in 1613 and 2000, at Molino in 1750, 1805 and 2000, at Giampilieri in 1791, 1918, 1929, 1932, 2000 and on October 25, 2007. The aim of this work is to define susceptibility models for shallow landslides using multivariate statistical analyses in the Giampilieri area (25 square kilometres). A detailed landslide inventory map has been produced, as the first step, through field surveys coupled with the observation of high resolution aerial colour orthophoto taken immediately after the event. 1,490 initiation zones have been identified; most of them have planimetric dimensions ranging between tens to few hundreds of square metres. The spatial hazard assessment has been focused on the detachment areas. Susceptibility models, performed in a GIS environment, took into account several parameters. The morphometric and hydrologic parameters has been derived from a detailed LiDAR 1×1 m. Square grid cells of 4×4 m were adopted as mapping units, on the basis of the area-frequency distribution of the detachment zones, and the optimal representation of the local morphometric conditions (e.g. slope angle, plan curvature). A first phase of the work addressed to identify the spatial relationships between the landslides location and the 13 related factors by using the Frequency Ratio bivariate statistical method. The analysis was then carried out by adopting a multivariate statistical approach, according to the Logistic Regression technique and Random Forests technique that gave best results in terms of AUC. The models were performed and evaluated with different sample sizes and also taking into account the temporal variation of input variables such as burned areas by wildfire. The most significant outcome of this work are: the relevant influence of the sample size on the model results and the strong importance of some environmental factors (e.g. land use and wildfires) for the identification of the depletion zones of extremely rapid shallow landslides.

A refined 2010-based VOC emission inventory and its improvement on modeling regional ozone in the Pearl River Delta Region, China.

PubMed

Yin, Shasha; Zheng, Junyu; Lu, Qing; Yuan, Zibing; Huang, Zhijiong; Zhong, Liuju; Lin, Hui

2015-05-01

Accurate and gridded VOC emission inventories are important for improving regional air quality model performance. In this study, a four-level VOC emission source categorization system was proposed. A 2010-based gridded Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional VOC emission inventory was developed with more comprehensive source coverage, latest emission factors, and updated activity data. The total anthropogenic VOC emission was estimated to be about 117.4 × 10(4)t, in which on-road mobile source shared the largest contribution, followed by industrial solvent use and industrial processes sources. Among the industrial solvent use source, furniture manufacturing and shoemaking were major VOC emission contributors. The spatial surrogates of VOC emission were updated for major VOC sources such as industrial sectors and gas stations. Subsector-based temporal characteristics were investigated and their temporal variations were characterized. The impacts of updated VOC emission estimates and spatial surrogates were evaluated by modeling O₃ concentration in the PRD region in the July and October of 2010, respectively. The results indicated that both updated emission estimates and spatial allocations can effectively reduce model bias on O₃ simulation. Further efforts should be made on the refinement of source classification, comprehensive collection of activity data, and spatial-temporal surrogates in order to reduce uncertainty in emission inventory and improve model performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Support vector machine learning-based fMRI data group analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Ze; Childress, Anna R; Wang, Jiongjiong; Detre, John A

2007-07-15

To explore the multivariate nature of fMRI data and to consider the inter-subject brain response discrepancies, a multivariate and brain response model-free method is fundamentally required. Two such methods are presented in this paper by integrating a machine learning algorithm, the support vector machine (SVM), and the random effect model. Without any brain response modeling, SVM was used to extract a whole brain spatial discriminance map (SDM), representing the brain response difference between the contrasted experimental conditions. Population inference was then obtained through the random effect analysis (RFX) or permutation testing (PMU) on the individual subjects' SDMs. Applied to arterial spin labeling (ASL) perfusion fMRI data, SDM RFX yielded lower false-positive rates in the null hypothesis test and higher detection sensitivity for synthetic activations with varying cluster size and activation strengths, compared to the univariate general linear model (GLM)-based RFX. For a sensory-motor ASL fMRI study, both SDM RFX and SDM PMU yielded similar activation patterns to GLM RFX and GLM PMU, respectively, but with higher t values and cluster extensions at the same significance level. Capitalizing on the absence of temporal noise correlation in ASL data, this study also incorporated PMU in the individual-level GLM and SVM analyses accompanied by group-level analysis through RFX or group-level PMU. Providing inferences on the probability of being activated or deactivated at each voxel, these individual-level PMU-based group analysis methods can be used to threshold the analysis results of GLM RFX, SDM RFX or SDM PMU.

Factors controlling spatial and temporal patterns of multiple pesticide compounds in groundwater (Hesbaye chalk aquifer, Belgium).

PubMed

Hakoun, Vivien; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain; Brouyère, Serge

2017-04-01

Factors governing spatial and temporal patterns of pesticide compounds (pesticides and metabolites) concentrations in chalk aquifers remain unclear due to complex flow processes and multiple sources. To uncover which factors govern pesticide compound concentrations in a chalk aquifer, we develop a methodology based on time series analyses, uni- and multivariate statistics accounting for concentrations below detection limits. The methodology is applied to long records (1996-2013) of a restricted compound (bentazone), three banned compounds (atrazine, diuron and simazine) and two metabolites (deethylatrazine (DEA) and 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM)) sampled in the Hesbaye chalk aquifer in Belgium. In the confined area, all compounds had non-detects fractions >80%. By contrast, maximum concentrations exceeded EU's drinking-water standard (100 ng L -1 ) in the unconfined area. This contrast confirms that recent recharge and polluted water did not reach the confined area, yet. Multivariate analyses based on variables representative of the hydrogeological setting revealed higher diuron and simazine concentrations in the southeast of the unconfined area, where urban activities dominate land use and where the aquifer lacks protection from a less permeable layer of hardened chalk. At individual sites, positive correlations (up to τ=0.48 for bentazone) between pesticide compound concentrations and multi-annual groundwater level fluctuations confirm occurrences of remobilization. A downward temporal trend of atrazine concentrations likely reflects decreasing use of this compound over the last 28 years. However, the lack of a break in concentrations time series and maximum concentrations of atrazine, simazine, DEA and BAM exceeding EU's standard post-ban years provide evidence of persistence. Contrasting upward trends in bentazone concentrations show that a time lag is required for restriction measures to be efficient. These results shed light on factors governing pesticide compound concentrations in chalk aquifers. The developed methodology is not restricted to chalk aquifers, it could be transposed to study other pollutants with concentrations below detection limits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a lodgepole pine forest

Treesearch

Chad M. Hoffman; Rodman Linn; Russell Parsons; Carolyn Sieg; Judith Winterkamp

2015-01-01

Patches of live, dead, and dying trees resulting from bark beetle-caused mortality alter spatial and temporal variability in the canopy and surface fuel complex through changes in the foliar moisture content of attacked trees and through the redistribution of canopy fuels. The resulting heterogeneous fuels complexes alter within-canopy wind flow, wind fluctuations, and...

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime.

PubMed

Fitterer, Jessica L; Nelson, Trisalyn A

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

PubMed Central

Fitterer, Jessica L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks). PMID:26418016

Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches.

PubMed

Stevens, Kim B; Pfeiffer, Dirk U

2011-09-01

The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall in semiarid-arid climate derived from high-resolution X-Band radar estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat

2018-02-01

Small scale rainfall variability is a key factor driving runoff response in fast responding systems, such as mountainous, urban and arid catchments. In this paper, the spatial-temporal autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall is derived with extremely high resolutions (60 m, 1 min) using estimates from an X-Band weather radar recently installed in a semiarid-arid area. The 2-dimensional spatial autocorrelation of convective rainfall fields and the temporal autocorrelation of point-wise and distributed rainfall fields are examined. The autocorrelation structures are characterized by spatial anisotropy, correlation distances 1.5-2.8 km and rarely exceeding 5 km, and time-correlation distances 1.8-6.4 min and rarely exceeding 10 min. The observed spatial variability is expected to negatively affect estimates from rain gauges and microwave links rather than satellite and C-/S-Band radars; conversely, the temporal variability is expected to negatively affect remote sensing estimates rather than rain gauges. The presented results provide quantitative information for stochastic weather generators, cloud-resolving models, dryland hydrologic and agricultural models, and multi-sensor merging techniques.

Application of 3D Spatio-Temporal Data Modeling, Management, and Analysis in DB4GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuper, P. V.; Breunig, M.; Al-Doori, M.; Thomsen, A.

2016-10-01

Many of todaýs world wide challenges such as climate change, water supply and transport systems in cities or movements of crowds need spatio-temporal data to be examined in detail. Thus the number of examinations in 3D space dealing with geospatial objects moving in space and time or even changing their shapes in time will rapidly increase in the future. Prominent spatio-temporal applications are subsurface reservoir modeling, water supply after seawater desalination and the development of transport systems in mega cities. All of these applications generate large spatio-temporal data sets. However, the modeling, management and analysis of 3D geo-objects with changing shape and attributes in time still is a challenge for geospatial database architectures. In this article we describe the application of concepts for the modeling, management and analysis of 2.5D and 3D spatial plus 1D temporal objects implemented in DB4GeO, our service-oriented geospatial database architecture. An example application with spatio-temporal data of a landfill, near the city of Osnabrück in Germany demonstrates the usage of the concepts. Finally, an outlook on our future research focusing on new applications with big data analysis in three spatial plus one temporal dimension in the United Arab Emirates, especially the Dubai area, is given.

Predicting seasonal influenza transmission using functional regression models with temporal dependence.

PubMed

Oviedo de la Fuente, Manuel; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Muñoz, María Pilar; Domínguez, Àngela

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a novel approach that uses meteorological information to predict the incidence of influenza in Galicia (Spain). It extends the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models with dependent errors. These kinds of models are useful when the recent history of the incidence of influenza are readily unavailable (for instance, by delays on the communication with health informants) and the prediction must be constructed by correcting the temporal dependence of the residuals and using more accessible variables. A simulation study shows that the GLS estimators render better estimations of the parameters associated with the regression model than they do with the classical models. They obtain extremely good results from the predictive point of view and are competitive with the classical time series approach for the incidence of influenza. An iterative version of the GLS estimator (called iGLS) was also proposed that can help to model complicated dependence structures. For constructing the model, the distance correlation measure [Formula: see text] was employed to select relevant information to predict influenza rate mixing multivariate and functional variables. These kinds of models are extremely useful to health managers in allocating resources in advance to manage influenza epidemics.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of High-Resolution Animal Networks: What Can We Learn from Domestic Animals?

PubMed

Chen, Shi; Ilany, Amiyaal; White, Brad J; Sanderson, Michael W; Lanzas, Cristina

2015-01-01

Animal social network is the key to understand many ecological and epidemiological processes. We used real-time location system (RTLS) to accurately track cattle position, analyze their proximity networks, and tested the hypothesis of temporal stationarity and spatial homogeneity in these networks during different daily time periods and in different areas of the pen. The network structure was analyzed using global network characteristics (network density), subgroup clustering (modularity), triadic property (transitivity), and dyadic interactions (correlation coefficient from a quadratic assignment procedure) at hourly level. We demonstrated substantial spatial-temporal heterogeneity in these networks and potential link between indirect animal-environment contact and direct animal-animal contact. But such heterogeneity diminished if data were collected at lower spatial (aggregated at entire pen level) or temporal (aggregated at daily level) resolution. The network structure (described by the characteristics such as density, modularity, transitivity, etc.) also changed substantially at different time and locations. There were certain time (feeding) and location (hay) that the proximity network structures were more consistent based on the dyadic interaction analysis. These results reveal new insights for animal network structure and spatial-temporal dynamics, provide more accurate descriptions of animal social networks, and allow more accurate modeling of multiple (both direct and indirect) disease transmission pathways.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-05-20

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-01-01

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months. PMID:26006121

Functional imaging reveals rapid reorganization of cortical activity after parietal inactivation in monkeys

PubMed Central

Wilke, Melanie; Kagan, Igor; Andersen, Richard A.

2012-01-01

Impairments of spatial awareness and decision making occur frequently as a consequence of parietal lesions. Here we used event-related functional MRI (fMRI) in monkeys to investigate rapid reorganization of spatial networks during reversible pharmacological inactivation of the lateral intraparietal area (LIP), which plays a role in the selection of eye movement targets. We measured fMRI activity in control and inactivation sessions while monkeys performed memory saccades to either instructed or autonomously chosen spatial locations. Inactivation caused a reduction of contralesional choices. Inactivation effects on fMRI activity were anatomically and functionally specific and mainly consisted of: (i) activity reduction in the upper bank of the superior temporal sulcus (temporal parietal occipital area) for single contralesional targets, especially in the inactivated hemisphere; and (ii) activity increase accompanying contralesional choices between bilateral targets in several frontal and parieto-temporal areas in both hemispheres. There was no overactivation for ipsilesional targets or choices in the intact hemisphere. Task-specific effects of LIP inactivation on blood oxygen level-dependent activity in the temporal parietal occipital area underline the importance of the superior temporal sulcus for spatial processing. Furthermore, our results agree only partially with the influential interhemispheric competition model of spatial neglect and suggest an additional component of interhemispheric cooperation in the compensation of neglect deficits. PMID:22562793

SIMPPLLE, version 2.5 user's guide

Treesearch

Jimmie D. Chew; Kirk Moeller; Christine Stalling

2012-01-01

SIMPPLLE is a spatially-interactive, dynamic landscape modeling system for projecting temporal changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation in response to insects, disease, wildland fire, and other natural and management-caused disturbances. SIMPPLLE is designed to provide a balance between incorporating enough complexity and interactions in modeling ecosystem...

Two-Stream Transformer Networks for Video-based Face Alignment.

PubMed

Liu, Hao; Lu, Jiwen; Feng, Jianjiang; Zhou, Jie

2017-08-01

In this paper, we propose a two-stream transformer networks (TSTN) approach for video-based face alignment. Unlike conventional image-based face alignment approaches which cannot explicitly model the temporal dependency in videos and motivated by the fact that consistent movements of facial landmarks usually occur across consecutive frames, our TSTN aims to capture the complementary information of both the spatial appearance on still frames and the temporal consistency information across frames. To achieve this, we develop a two-stream architecture, which decomposes the video-based face alignment into spatial and temporal streams accordingly. Specifically, the spatial stream aims to transform the facial image to the landmark positions by preserving the holistic facial shape structure. Accordingly, the temporal stream encodes the video input as active appearance codes, where the temporal consistency information across frames is captured to help shape refinements. Experimental results on the benchmarking video-based face alignment datasets show very competitive performance of our method in comparisons to the state-of-the-arts.

Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

2016-12-01

Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models with unstated, but implicit assumptions. As we interpret modeling results, we must communicate the spatial and temporal scale for which the model was developed and at which the data is valid. When there is little to no data to enable appropriate validation and calibration, the results must be interpreted with appropriate skepticism.

Estimates of spatial and temporal variation of energy crops biomass yields in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Landuyt, W.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2013-12-01

Perennial grasses, such as switchgrass (Panicum viragatum) and Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus) have been identified for potential use as biomass feedstocks in the US. Current research on perennial grass biomass production has been evaluated on small-scale plots. However, the extent to which this potential can be realized at a landscape-scale will depend on the biophysical potential to grow these grasses with minimum possible amount of land that needs to be diverted from food to fuel production. To assess this potential three questions about the biomass yield for these grasses need to be answered: (1) how the yields for different grasses are varied spatially and temporally across the US; (2) whether the yields are temporally stable or not; and (3) how the spatial and temporal trends in yields of these perennial grasses are controlled by limiting factors, including soil type, water availability, climate, and crop varieties. To answer these questions, the growth processes of the perennial grasses are implemented into a coupled biophysical, physiological and biogeochemical model (ISAM). The model has been applied to quantitatively investigate the spatial and temporal trends in biomass yields for over the period 1980 -2010 in the US. The bioenergy grasses considered in this study include Miscanthus, Cave-in-Rock switchgrass and Alamo switchgrass. The effects of climate, soil and topography on the spatial and temporal trends of biomass yields are quantitatively analyzed using principal component analysis and GIS based geographically weighted regression. The spatial temporal trend results are evaluated further to classify each part of the US into four homogeneous potential yield zones: high and stable yield zone (HS), high but unstable yield zone (HU), low and stable yield zone (LS) and low but unstable yield zone (LU). Our preliminary results indicate that the yields for perennial grasses among different zones are strongly related to the different controlling factors. For example, the yield in HS zone is depended on soil and topography factors. However, the yields in HU zone are more controlled by climate factors, leading to a large uncertainty in yield potential of bioenergy grasses under future climate change.

A New Multivariate Approach in Generating Ensemble Meteorological Forcings for Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach currently used by National Weather Service River Forecast Centers in USA.

Modelling spatiotemporal change using multidimensional arrays Meng

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Meng; Appel, Marius; Pebesma, Edzer

2017-04-01

The large variety of remote sensors, model simulations, and in-situ records provide great opportunities to model environmental change. The massive amount of high-dimensional data calls for methods to integrate data from various sources and to analyse spatiotemporal and thematic information jointly. An array is a collection of elements ordered and indexed in arbitrary dimensions, which naturally represent spatiotemporal phenomena that are identified by their geographic locations and recording time. In addition, array regridding (e.g., resampling, down-/up-scaling), dimension reduction, and spatiotemporal statistical algorithms are readily applicable to arrays. However, the role of arrays in big geoscientific data analysis has not been systematically studied: How can arrays discretise continuous spatiotemporal phenomena? How can arrays facilitate the extraction of multidimensional information? How can arrays provide a clean, scalable and reproducible change modelling process that is communicable between mathematicians, computer scientist, Earth system scientist and stakeholders? This study emphasises on detecting spatiotemporal change using satellite image time series. Current change detection methods using satellite image time series commonly analyse data in separate steps: 1) forming a vegetation index, 2) conducting time series analysis on each pixel, and 3) post-processing and mapping time series analysis results, which does not consider spatiotemporal correlations and ignores much of the spectral information. Multidimensional information can be better extracted by jointly considering spatial, spectral, and temporal information. To approach this goal, we use principal component analysis to extract multispectral information and spatial autoregressive models to account for spatial correlation in residual based time series structural change modelling. We also discuss the potential of multivariate non-parametric time series structural change methods, hierarchical modelling, and extreme event detection methods to model spatiotemporal change. We show how array operations can facilitate expressing these methods, and how the open-source array data management and analytics software SciDB and R can be used to scale the process and make it easily reproducible.

Landsat classification of surface-water presence during multiple years to assess response of playa wetlands to climatic variability across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manier, Daniel J.; Rover, Jennifer R.

2018-02-15

To improve understanding of the distribution of ecologically important, ephemeral wetland habitats across the Great Plains, the occurrence and distribution of surface water in playa wetland complexes were documented for four different years across the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) region. This information is important because it informs land and wildlife managers about the timing and location of habitat availability. Data with an accurate timestamp that indicate the presence of water, the percent of the area inundated with water, and the spatial distribution of playa wetlands with water are needed for a host of resource inventory, monitoring, and research applications. For example, the distribution of inundated wetlands forms the spatial pattern of available habitat for resident shorebirds and water birds, stop-over habitats for migratory birds, connectivity and clustering of wetland habitats, and surface waters that recharge the Ogallala aquifer; there is considerable variability in the distribution of playa wetlands holding water through time. Documentation of these spatially and temporally intricate processes, here, provides data required to assess connections between inundation and multiple environmental drivers, such as climate, land use, soil, and topography. Climate drivers are understood to interact with land cover, land use and soil attributes in determining the amount of water that flows overland into playa wetlands. Results indicated significant spatial variability represented by differences in the percent of playas inundated among States within the GPLCC. Further, analysis-of-variance comparison of differences in inundation between years showed significant differences in all cases. Although some connections with seasonal moisture patterns may be observed, the complex spatial-temporal gradients of precipitation, temperature, soils, and land use need to be combined as covariates in multivariate models to effectively account for these patterns. We demonstrate the feasibility of using classification of Landsat satellite imagery to describe playa-wetland inundation across years and seasons. Evaluating classifications representing only 4 years of imagery, we found significant year-to-year and state-to-state differences in inundation rates.

Model-based vision for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaconas, Karen; Nashman, Marilyn; Lumia, Ronald

1992-01-01

This paper describes a method for tracking moving image features by combining spatial and temporal edge information with model based feature information. The algorithm updates the two-dimensional position of object features by correlating predicted model features with current image data. The results of the correlation process are used to compute an updated model. The algorithm makes use of a high temporal sampling rate with respect to spatial changes of the image features and operates in a real-time multiprocessing environment. Preliminary results demonstrate successful tracking for image feature velocities between 1.1 and 4.5 pixels every image frame. This work has applications for docking, assembly, retrieval of floating objects and a host of other space-related tasks.

Spatial and temporal resolution effects on urban catchments with different imperviousness degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; van de Giesen, Nick C.

2015-04-01

One of the main problems in urban hydrological analysis is to measure the rainfall at urban scale with high resolution and use these measurements to model urban runoff processes to predict flows and reduce flood risk. With the aim of building a semi-distribute hydrological sewer model for an urban catchment, high resolution rainfall data are required as input. In this study, the sensitivity of hydrological response to high resolution precipitation data for hydrodynamic models at urban scale is evaluated with different combinations of spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim is to study sensitivity in relation to catchment characteristics, especially drainage area size, imperviousness degree and hydraulic properties such as special structures (weirs, pumping stations). Rainfall data of nine storms are considered with 4 different spatial resolutions (3000m, 1000m, 500m and 100m) combined with 4 different temporal resolutions (10min, 5min, 3min and 1min). The dual polarimetric X-band weather radar, located in the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) provided the high resolution rainfall data of these rainfall events, used to improve the sewer model. The effects of spatial-temporal rainfall input resolution on response is studied in three Districts of Rotterdam (NL): Kralingen, Spaanse Polder and Centrum district. These catchments have different average drainage area size (from 2km2 to 7km2), and different general characteristics. Centrum district and Kralingen are, indeed, more various and include residential and commercial areas, big green areas and a small industrial area, while Spaanse Polder is a industrial area, densely urbanized, and presents a high percentage of imperviousness.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

Spatial, Temporal and Spectral Satellite Image Fusion via Sparse Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Huihui

Remote sensing provides good measurements for monitoring and further analyzing the climate change, dynamics of ecosystem, and human activities in global or regional scales. Over the past two decades, the number of launched satellite sensors has been increasing with the development of aerospace technologies and the growing requirements on remote sensing data in a vast amount of application fields. However, a key technological challenge confronting these sensors is that they tradeoff between spatial resolution and other properties, including temporal resolution, spectral resolution, swath width, etc., due to the limitations of hardware technology and budget constraints. To increase the spatial resolution of data with other good properties, one possible cost-effective solution is to explore data integration methods that can fuse multi-resolution data from multiple sensors, thereby enhancing the application capabilities of available remote sensing data. In this thesis, we propose to fuse the spatial resolution with temporal resolution and spectral resolution, respectively, based on sparse representation theory. Taking the study case of Landsat ETM+ (with spatial resolution of 30m and temporal resolution of 16 days) and MODIS (with spatial resolution of 250m ~ 1km and daily temporal resolution) reflectance, we propose two spatial-temporal fusion methods to combine the fine spatial information of Landsat image and the daily temporal resolution of MODIS image. Motivated by that the images from these two sensors are comparable on corresponding bands, we propose to link their spatial information on available Landsat- MODIS image pair (captured on prior date) and then predict the Landsat image from the MODIS counterpart on prediction date. To well-learn the spatial details from the prior images, we use a redundant dictionary to extract the basic representation atoms for both Landsat and MODIS images based on sparse representation. Under the scenario of two prior Landsat-MODIS image pairs, we build the corresponding relationship between the difference images of MODIS and ETM+ by training a low- and high-resolution dictionary pair from the given prior image pairs. In the second scenario, i.e., only one Landsat- MODIS image pair being available, we directly correlate MODIS and ETM+ data through an image degradation model. Then, the fusion stage is achieved by super-resolving the MODIS image combining the high-pass modulation in a two-layer fusion framework. Remarkably, the proposed spatial-temporal fusion methods form a unified framework for blending remote sensing images with phenology change or land-cover-type change. Based on the proposed spatial-temporal fusion models, we propose to monitor the land use/land cover changes in Shenzhen, China. As a fast-growing city, Shenzhen faces the problem of detecting the rapid changes for both rational city planning and sustainable development. However, the cloudy and rainy weather in region Shenzhen located makes the capturing circle of high-quality satellite images longer than their normal revisit periods. Spatial-temporal fusion methods are capable to tackle this problem by improving the spatial resolution of images with coarse spatial resolution but frequent temporal coverage, thereby making the detection of rapid changes possible. On two Landsat-MODIS datasets with annual and monthly changes, respectively, we apply the proposed spatial-temporal fusion methods to the task of multiple change detection. Afterward, we propose a novel spatial and spectral fusion method for satellite multispectral and hyperspectral (or high-spectral) images based on dictionary-pair learning and sparse non-negative matrix factorization. By combining the spectral information from hyperspectral image, which is characterized by low spatial resolution but high spectral resolution and abbreviated as LSHS, and the spatial information from multispectral image, which is featured by high spatial resolution but low spectral resolution and abbreviated as HSLS, this method aims to generate the fused data with both high spatial and high spectral resolutions. Motivated by the observation that each hyperspectral pixel can be represented by a linear combination of a few endmembers, this method first extracts the spectral bases of LSHS and HSLS images by making full use of the rich spectral information in LSHS data. The spectral bases of these two categories data then formulate a dictionary-pair due to their correspondence in representing each pixel spectra of LSHS data and HSLS data, respectively. Subsequently, the LSHS image is spatially unmixed by representing the HSLS image with respect to the corresponding learned dictionary to derive its representation coefficients. Combining the spectral bases of LSHS data and the representation coefficients of HSLS data, we finally derive the fused data characterized by the spectral resolution of LSHS data and the spatial resolution of HSLS data.

Predictive computation of genomic logic processing functions in embryonic development

PubMed Central

Peter, Isabelle S.; Faure, Emmanuel; Davidson, Eric H.

2012-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) control the dynamic spatial patterns of regulatory gene expression in development. Thus, in principle, GRN models may provide system-level, causal explanations of developmental process. To test this assertion, we have transformed a relatively well-established GRN model into a predictive, dynamic Boolean computational model. This Boolean model computes spatial and temporal gene expression according to the regulatory logic and gene interactions specified in a GRN model for embryonic development in the sea urchin. Additional information input into the model included the progressive embryonic geometry and gene expression kinetics. The resulting model predicted gene expression patterns for a large number of individual regulatory genes each hour up to gastrulation (30 h) in four different spatial domains of the embryo. Direct comparison with experimental observations showed that the model predictively computed these patterns with remarkable spatial and temporal accuracy. In addition, we used this model to carry out in silico perturbations of regulatory functions and of embryonic spatial organization. The model computationally reproduced the altered developmental functions observed experimentally. Two major conclusions are that the starting GRN model contains sufficiently complete regulatory information to permit explanation of a complex developmental process of gene expression solely in terms of genomic regulatory code, and that the Boolean model provides a tool with which to test in silico regulatory circuitry and developmental perturbations. PMID:22927416

Functional Groups Based on Leaf Physiology: Are they Spatially and Temporally Robust?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, Tammy E.; Brooks, J. Renee

2004-01-01

The functional grouping hypothesis, which suggests that complexity in ecosystem function can be simplified by grouping species with similar responses, was tested in the Florida scrub habitat. Functional groups were identified based on how species in fire maintained Florida scrub regulate exchange of carbon and water with the atmosphere as indicated by both instantaneous gas exchange measurements and integrated measures of function (%N, delta C-13, delta N-15, C-N ratio). Using cluster analysis, five distinct physiologically-based functional groups were identified in the fire maintained scrub. These functional groups were tested to determine if they were robust spatially, temporally, and with management regime. Analysis of Similarities (ANOSIM), a non-parametric multivariate analysis, indicated that these five physiologically-based groupings were not altered by plot differences (R = -0.115, p = 0.893) or by the three different management regimes; prescribed burn, mechanically treated and burn, and fire-suppressed (R = 0.018, p = 0.349). The physiological groupings also remained robust between the two climatically different years 1999 and 2000 (R = -0.027, p = 0.725). Easy-to-measure morphological characteristics indicating functional groups would be more practical for scaling and modeling ecosystem processes than detailed gas-exchange measurements, therefore we tested a variety of morphological characteristics as functional indicators. A combination of non-parametric multivariate techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis, non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling, and ANOSIM) were used to compare the ability of life form, leaf thickness, and specific leaf area classifications to identify the physiologically-based functional groups. Life form classifications (ANOSIM; R = 0.629, p 0.001) were able to depict the physiological groupings more adequately than either specific leaf area (ANOSIM; R = 0.426, p = 0.001) or leaf thickness (ANOSIM; R 0.344, p 0.001). The ability of life forms to depict the physiological groupings was improved by separating the parasitic Ximenia americana from the shrub category (ANOSIM; R = 0.794, p = 0.001). Therefore, a life form classification including parasites was determined to be a good indicator of the physiological processes of scrub species, and would be a useful method of grouping for scaling physiological processes to the ecosystem level.

Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Variation of Surface Water Quality in Streams Affected by Coalbed Methane Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitrakar, S.; Miller, S. N.; Liu, T.; Caffrey, P. A.

2015-12-01

Water quality data have been collected from three representative stream reaches in a coalbed methane (CBM) development area for over five years to improve the understanding of salt loading in the system. These streams are located within Atlantic Rim development area of the Muddy Creek in south-central Wyoming. Significant development of CBM wells is ongoing in the study area. Three representative sampling stream reaches included the Duck Pond Draw and Cow Creek, which receive co-produced water, and; South Fork Creek, and upstream Cow Creek which do not receive co-produced water. Water samples were assayed for various parameters which included sodium, calcium, magnesium, fluoride, chlorine, nitrate, O-phosphate, sulfate, carbonate, bicarbonates, and other water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, and TDS. Based on these water quality parameters we have investigated various hydrochemical and geochemical processes responsible for the high variability in water quality in the region. However, effective interpretation of complex databases to understand aforementioned processes has been a challenging task due to the system's complexity. In this work we applied multivariate statistical techniques including cluster analysis (CA), principle component analysis (PCA) and discriminant analysis (DA) to analyze water quality data and identify similarities and differences among our locations. First, CA technique was applied to group the monitoring sites based on the multivariate similarities. Second, PCA technique was applied to identify the prevalent parameters responsible for the variation of water quality in each group. Third, the DA technique was used to identify the most important factors responsible for variation of water quality during low flow season and high flow season. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of factors or sources influencing the spatial and temporal variation of water quality. The ultimate goal of this whole research is to develop coupled salt loading and GIS-based hydrological modelling tool that will be able to simulate the salt loadings under various user defined scenarios in the regions undergoing CBM development. Therefore, the findings from this study will be used to formulate the predominant processes responsible for solute loading.

How Does the Sparse Memory "Engram" Neurons Encode the Memory of a Spatial-Temporal Event?

PubMed

Guan, Ji-Song; Jiang, Jun; Xie, Hong; Liu, Kai-Yuan

2016-01-01

Episodic memory in human brain is not a fixed 2-D picture but a highly dynamic movie serial, integrating information at both the temporal and the spatial domains. Recent studies in neuroscience reveal that memory storage and recall are closely related to the activities in discrete memory engram (trace) neurons within the dentate gyrus region of hippocampus and the layer 2/3 of neocortex. More strikingly, optogenetic reactivation of those memory trace neurons is able to trigger the recall of naturally encoded memory. It is still unknown how the discrete memory traces encode and reactivate the memory. Considering a particular memory normally represents a natural event, which consists of information at both the temporal and spatial domains, it is unknown how the discrete trace neurons could reconstitute such enriched information in the brain. Furthermore, as the optogenetic-stimuli induced recall of memory did not depend on firing pattern of the memory traces, it is most likely that the spatial activation pattern, but not the temporal activation pattern of the discrete memory trace neurons encodes the memory in the brain. How does the neural circuit convert the activities in the spatial domain into the temporal domain to reconstitute memory of a natural event? By reviewing the literature, here we present how the memory engram (trace) neurons are selected and consolidated in the brain. Then, we will discuss the main challenges in the memory trace theory. In the end, we will provide a plausible model of memory trace cell network, underlying the conversion of neural activities between the spatial domain and the temporal domain. We will also discuss on how the activation of sparse memory trace neurons might trigger the replay of neural activities in specific temporal patterns.

Spatial Interpretation of Tower, Chamber and Modelled Terrestrial Fluxes in a Tropical Forest Plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whidden, E.; Roulet, N.

2003-04-01

Interpretation of a site average terrestrial flux may be complicated in the presence of inhomogeneities. Inhomogeneity may invalidate the basic assumptions of aerodynamic flux measurement. Chamber measurement may miss or misinterpret important temporal or spatial anomalies. Models may smooth over important nonlinearities depending on the scale of application. Although inhomogeneity is usually seen as a design problem, many sites have spatial variance that may have a large impact on net flux, and in many cases a large homogeneous surface is unrealistic. The sensitivity and validity of a site average flux are investigated in the presence of an inhomogeneous site. Directional differences are used to evaluate the validity of aerodynamic methods and the computation of a site average tower flux. Empirical and modelling methods are used to interpret the spatial controls on flux. An ecosystem model, Ecosys, is used to assess spatial length scales appropriate to the ecophysiologic controls. A diffusion model is used to compare tower, chamber, and model data, by spatially weighting contributions within the tower footprint. Diffusion model weighting is also used to improve tower flux estimates by producing footprint averaged ecological parameters (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.). Although uncertainty remains in the validity of measurement methods and the accuracy of diffusion models, a detailed spatial interpretation is required at an inhomogeneous site. Flux estimation between methods improves with spatial interpretation, showing the importance to an estimation of a site average flux. Small-scale temporal and spatial anomalies may be relatively unimportant to overall flux, but accounting for medium-scale differences in ecophysiological controls is necessary. A combination of measurements and modelling can be used to define the appropriate time and length scales of significant non-linearity due to inhomogeneity.

Spatiotemporal Context Awareness for Urban Traffic Modeling and Prediction: Sparse Representation Based Variable Selection.

PubMed

Yang, Su; Shi, Shixiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Wang, Minjie

2015-01-01

Spatial-temporal correlations among the data play an important role in traffic flow prediction. Correspondingly, traffic modeling and prediction based on big data analytics emerges due to the city-scale interactions among traffic flows. A new methodology based on sparse representation is proposed to reveal the spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic flows so as to simplify the correlations among traffic data for the prediction task at a given sensor. Three important findings are observed in the experiments: (1) Only traffic flows immediately prior to the present time affect the formation of current traffic flows, which implies the possibility to reduce the traditional high-order predictors into an 1-order model. (2) The spatial context relevant to a given prediction task is more complex than what is assumed to exist locally and can spread out to the whole city. (3) The spatial context varies with the target sensor undergoing prediction and enlarges with the increment of time lag for prediction. Because the scope of human mobility is subject to travel time, identifying the varying spatial context against time lag is crucial for prediction. Since sparse representation can capture the varying spatial context to adapt to the prediction task, it outperforms the traditional methods the inputs of which are confined as the data from a fixed number of nearby sensors. As the spatial-temporal context for any prediction task is fully detected from the traffic data in an automated manner, where no additional information regarding network topology is needed, it has good scalability to be applicable to large-scale networks.

Spatiotemporal Context Awareness for Urban Traffic Modeling and Prediction: Sparse Representation Based Variable Selection

PubMed Central

Yang, Su; Shi, Shixiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Wang, Minjie

2015-01-01

Spatial-temporal correlations among the data play an important role in traffic flow prediction. Correspondingly, traffic modeling and prediction based on big data analytics emerges due to the city-scale interactions among traffic flows. A new methodology based on sparse representation is proposed to reveal the spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic flows so as to simplify the correlations among traffic data for the prediction task at a given sensor. Three important findings are observed in the experiments: (1) Only traffic flows immediately prior to the present time affect the formation of current traffic flows, which implies the possibility to reduce the traditional high-order predictors into an 1-order model. (2) The spatial context relevant to a given prediction task is more complex than what is assumed to exist locally and can spread out to the whole city. (3) The spatial context varies with the target sensor undergoing prediction and enlarges with the increment of time lag for prediction. Because the scope of human mobility is subject to travel time, identifying the varying spatial context against time lag is crucial for prediction. Since sparse representation can capture the varying spatial context to adapt to the prediction task, it outperforms the traditional methods the inputs of which are confined as the data from a fixed number of nearby sensors. As the spatial-temporal context for any prediction task is fully detected from the traffic data in an automated manner, where no additional information regarding network topology is needed, it has good scalability to be applicable to large-scale networks. PMID:26496370

Calibrating a numerical model's morphology using high-resolution spatial and temporal datasets from multithread channel flume experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javernick, L.; Bertoldi, W.; Redolfi, M.

2017-12-01

Accessing or acquiring high quality, low-cost topographic data has never been easier due to recent developments of the photogrammetric techniques of Structure-from-Motion (SfM). Researchers can acquire the necessary SfM imagery with various platforms, with the ability to capture millimetre resolution and accuracy, or large-scale areas with the help of unmanned platforms. Such datasets in combination with numerical modelling have opened up new opportunities to study river environments physical and ecological relationships. While numerical models overall predictive accuracy is most influenced by topography, proper model calibration requires hydraulic data and morphological data; however, rich hydraulic and morphological datasets remain scarce. This lack in field and laboratory data has limited model advancement through the inability to properly calibrate, assess sensitivity, and validate the models performance. However, new time-lapse imagery techniques have shown success in identifying instantaneous sediment transport in flume experiments and their ability to improve hydraulic model calibration. With new capabilities to capture high resolution spatial and temporal datasets of flume experiments, there is a need to further assess model performance. To address this demand, this research used braided river flume experiments and captured time-lapse observed sediment transport and repeat SfM elevation surveys to provide unprecedented spatial and temporal datasets. Through newly created metrics that quantified observed and modeled activation, deactivation, and bank erosion rates, the numerical model Delft3d was calibrated. This increased temporal data of both high-resolution time series and long-term temporal coverage provided significantly improved calibration routines that refined calibration parameterization. Model results show that there is a trade-off between achieving quantitative statistical and qualitative morphological representations. Specifically, statistical agreement simulations suffered to represent braiding planforms (evolving toward meandering), and parameterization that ensured braided produced exaggerated activation and bank erosion rates. Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship: River-HMV, 656917

A multi-scale conceptual model of fire and disease interactions in North American forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varner, J. M.; Kreye, J. K.; Sherriff, R.; Metz, M.

2013-12-01

One aspect of global change with increasing attention is the interactions between irruptive pests and diseases and wildland fire behavior and effects. These pests and diseases affect fire behavior and effects in spatially and temporally complex ways. Models of fire and pathogen interactions have been constructed for individual pests or diseases, but to date, no synthesis of this complexity has been attempted. Here we synthesize North American fire-pathogen interactions into syndromes with similarities in spatial extent and temporal duration. We base our models on fire interactions with three examples: sudden oak death (caused by the pathogen Phytopthora ramorum) and the native tree tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus); mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western Pinus spp.; and hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) on Tsuga spp. We evaluate each across spatial (severity of attack from branch to landscape scale) and temporal scales (from attack to decades after) and link each change to its coincident effects on fuels and potential fire behavior. These syndromes differ in their spatial and temporal severity, differentially affecting windows of increased or decreased community flammability. We evaluate these models with two examples: the recently emergent ambrosia beetle-vectored laurel wilt (caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola) in native members of the Lauraceae and the early 20th century chestnut blight (caused by the pathogen Cryphonectria parasitica) that led to the decline of American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Some changes (e.g., reduced foliar moisture content) have short-term consequences for potential fire behavior while others (functional extirpation) have more complex indirect effects on community flammability. As non-native emergent diseases and pests continue, synthetic models that aid in prediction of fire behavior and effects will enable the research and management community to prioritize mitigation efforts to realized effects.

The Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions in Tropical Summer Rainfall Distribution: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Chiu, L. S.; Hao, X.

2017-10-01

The abundance or lack of rainfall affects peoples' life and activities. As a major component of the global hydrological cycle (Chokngamwong & Chiu, 2007), accurate representations at various spatial and temporal scales are crucial for a lot of decision making processes. Climate models show a warmer and wetter climate due to increases of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). However, the models' resolutions are often too coarse to be directly applicable to local scales that are useful for mitigation purposes. Hence disaggregation (downscaling) procedures are needed to transfer the coarse scale products to higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim of this paper is to examine the changes in the statistical parameters of rainfall at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at 0.25 degree, 3 hourly grid rainfall data for a summer is aggregated to 0.5,1.0, 2.0 and 2.5 degree and at 6, 12, 24 hourly, pentad (five days) and monthly resolutions. The probability distributions (PDF) and cumulative distribution functions(CDF) of rain amount at these resolutions are computed and modeled as a mixed distribution. Parameters of the PDFs are compared using the Kolmogrov-Smironov (KS) test, both for the mixed and the marginal distribution. These distributions are shown to be distinct. The marginal distributions are fitted with Lognormal and Gamma distributions and it is found that the Gamma distributions fit much better than the Lognormal.

A spatial-temporal system for dynamic cadastral management.

PubMed

Nan, Liu; Renyi, Liu; Guangliang, Zhu; Jiong, Xie

2006-03-01

A practical spatio-temporal database (STDB) technique for dynamic urban land management is presented. One of the STDB models, the expanded model of Base State with Amendments (BSA), is selected as the basis for developing the dynamic cadastral management technique. Two approaches, the Section Fast Indexing (SFI) and the Storage Factors of Variable Granularity (SFVG), are used to improve the efficiency of the BSA model. Both spatial graphic data and attribute data, through a succinct engine, are stored in standard relational database management systems (RDBMS) for the actual implementation of the BSA model. The spatio-temporal database is divided into three interdependent sub-databases: present DB, history DB and the procedures-tracing DB. The efficiency of database operation is improved by the database connection in the bottom layer of the Microsoft SQL Server. The spatio-temporal system can be provided at a low-cost while satisfying the basic needs of urban land management in China. The approaches presented in this paper may also be of significance to countries where land patterns change frequently or to agencies where financial resources are limited.

Neural network for processing both spatial and temporal data with time based back-propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villarreal, James A. (Inventor); Shelton, Robert O. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

Neural networks are computing systems modeled after the paradigm of the biological brain. For years, researchers using various forms of neural networks have attempted to model the brain's information processing and decision-making capabilities. Neural network algorithms have impressively demonstrated the capability of modeling spatial information. On the other hand, the application of parallel distributed models to the processing of temporal data has been severely restricted. The invention introduces a novel technique which adds the dimension of time to the well known back-propagation neural network algorithm. In the space-time neural network disclosed herein, the synaptic weights between two artificial neurons (processing elements) are replaced with an adaptable-adjustable filter. Instead of a single synaptic weight, the invention provides a plurality of weights representing not only association, but also temporal dependencies. In this case, the synaptic weights are the coefficients to the adaptable digital filters. Novelty is believed to lie in the disclosure of a processing element and a network of the processing elements which are capable of processing temporal as well as spacial data.

Spatio-temporal distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Brazil.

PubMed

Chammartin, Frédérique; Guimarães, Luiz H; Scholte, Ronaldo Gc; Bavia, Mara E; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2014-09-18

In Brazil, preventive chemotherapy targeting soil-transmitted helminthiasis is being scaled-up. Hence, spatially explicit estimates of infection risks providing information about the current situation are needed to guide interventions. Available high-resolution national model-based estimates either rely on analyses of data restricted to a given period of time, or on historical data collected over a longer period. While efforts have been made to take into account the spatial structure of the data in the modelling approach, little emphasis has been placed on the temporal dimension. We extracted georeferenced survey data on the prevalence of infection with soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura) in Brazil from the Global Neglected Tropical Diseases (GNTD) database. Selection of the most important predictors of infection risk was carried out using a Bayesian geostatistical approach and temporal models that address non-linearity and correlation of the explanatory variables. The spatial process was estimated through a predictive process approximation. Spatio-temporal models were built on the selected predictors with integrated nested Laplace approximation using stochastic partial differential equations. Our models revealed that, over the past 20 years, the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection has decreased in Brazil, mainly because of the reduction of A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections. From 2010 onwards, we estimate that the infection prevalences with A. lumbricoides, hookworm and T. trichiura are 3.6%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. We also provide a map highlighting municipalities in need of preventive chemotherapy, based on a predicted soil-transmitted helminth infection risk in excess of 20%. The need for treatments in the school-aged population at the municipality level was estimated at 1.8 million doses of anthelminthic tablets per year. The analysis of the spatio-temporal aspect of the risk of infection with soil-transmitted helminths contributes to a better understanding of the evolution of risk over time. Risk estimates provide the soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programme in Brazil with useful benchmark information for prioritising and improving spatial and temporal targeting of interventions.

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

2015-02-01

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: Model evaluation and source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, H.; Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Takegawa, N.; Kita, K.; Miyazaki, Y.; Hu, M.; Chang, S.; Blake, D. R.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.; Streets, D. G.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, T.

2009-12-01

Regional aerosol model calculations were made using the WRF-CMAQ and WRF-chem models to study spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing, China, in the summer of 2006, when the CAREBEIJING-2006 intensive campaign was conducted. Model calculations captured temporal variations of primary (such as elemental carbon, EC) and secondary (such as sulfate) aerosols observed in and around Beijing. The spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth observed by the MODIS satellite sensors were also reproduced over northeast China. Model calculations showed distinct differences in spatial distributions between primary and secondary aerosols in association with synoptic-scale meteorology. Secondary aerosols increased in air around Beijing on a scale of about 1000 x 1000 km2 under an anticyclonic pressure system. This airmass was transported northward from the high anthropogenic emission area extending south of Beijing with continuous photochemical production. Subsequent cold front passage brought clean air from the north, and polluted air around Beijing was swept to the south of Beijing. This cycle was repeated about once a week and was found to be responsible for observed enhancements/reductions of aerosols at the intensive measurement sites. In contrast to secondary aerosols, the spatial distributions of primary aerosols (EC) reflected those of emissions, resulting in only slight variability despite the changes in synoptic-scale meteorology. In accordance with these results, source apportionment simulations revealed that primary aerosols around Beijing were controlled by emissions within 100 km around Beijing within the preceding 24 hours, while emissions as far as 500 km and within the preceding 3 days were found to affect secondary aerosols.

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the central Florida. The hydrologic response of two southwest Florida watersheds to the gridded observation data, the original bias corrected CMIP3 data, and the new spatiotemporally corrected CMIP3 predictions was compared using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model developed by Tampa Bay Water.

Enhanced representation of soil NO emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community...

Spatially Explicit West Nile Virus Risk Modeling in Santa Clara County, CA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A geographic information systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk was tested and calibrated with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005, provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the mo...

Modeling Spatial and Temporal Aspects of Visual Backward Masking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hermens, Frouke; Luksys, Gediminas; Gerstner, Wulfram; Herzog, Michael H.; Ernst, Udo

2008-01-01

Visual backward masking is a versatile tool for understanding principles and limitations of visual information processing in the human brain. However, the mechanisms underlying masking are still poorly understood. In the current contribution, the authors show that a structurally simple mathematical model can explain many spatial and temporal…

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries.

PubMed

Tisseuil, Clément; Velo, Enkelejda; Bino, Silvia; Kadriaj, Perparim; Mersini, Kujtim; Shukullari, Ada; Simaku, Artan; Rogozi, Elton; Caputo, Beniamino; Ducheyne, Els; Della Torre, Alessandra; Reiter, Paul; Gilbert, Marius

2018-02-01

The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.

Water quality modeling in the dead end sections of drinking water distribution networks.

PubMed

Abokifa, Ahmed A; Yang, Y Jeffrey; Lo, Cynthia S; Biswas, Pratim

2016-02-01

Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of the distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used to calibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations in flow demands on the simulation accuracy. A set of three correction factors were analytically derived to adjust residence time, dispersion rate and wall demand to overcome simulation error caused by spatial aggregation approximation. The current model results show better agreement with field-measured concentrations of conservative fluoride tracer and free chlorine disinfectant than the simulations of recent advection dispersion reaction models published in the literature. Accuracy of the simulated concentration profiles showed significant dependence on the spatial distribution of the flow demands compared to temporal variation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate analysis applied to the study of spatial distributions found in drug-eluting stent coatings by confocal Raman microscopy.

PubMed

Balss, Karin M; Long, Frederick H; Veselov, Vladimir; Orana, Argjenta; Akerman-Revis, Eugena; Papandreou, George; Maryanoff, Cynthia A

2008-07-01

Multivariate data analysis was applied to confocal Raman measurements on stents coated with the polymers and drug used in the CYPHER Sirolimus-eluting Coronary Stents. Partial least-squares (PLS) regression was used to establish three independent calibration curves for the coating constituents: sirolimus, poly(n-butyl methacrylate) [PBMA], and poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) [PEVA]. The PLS calibrations were based on average spectra generated from each spatial location profiled. The PLS models were tested on six unknown stent samples to assess accuracy and precision. The wt % difference between PLS predictions and laboratory assay values for sirolimus was less than 1 wt % for the composite of the six unknowns, while the polymer models were estimated to be less than 0.5 wt % difference for the combined samples. The linearity and specificity of the three PLS models were also demonstrated with the three PLS models. In contrast to earlier univariate models, the PLS models achieved mass balance with better accuracy. This analysis was extended to evaluate the spatial distribution of the three constituents. Quantitative bitmap images of drug-eluting stent coatings are presented for the first time to assess the local distribution of components.

Recent Advances on INSAR Temporal Decorrelation: Theory and Observations Using UAVSAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavalle, M.; Hensley, S.; Simard, M.

2011-01-01

We review our recent advances in understanding the role of temporal decorrelation in SAR interferometry and polarimetric SAR interferometry. We developed a physical model of temporal decorrelation based on Gaussian-statistic motion that varies along the vertical direction in forest canopies. Temporal decorrelation depends on structural parameters such as forest height, is sensitive to polarization and affects coherence amplitude and phase. A model of temporal-volume decorrelation valid for arbitrary spatial baseline is discussed. We tested the inversion of this model to estimate forest height from model simulations supported by JPL/UAVSAR data and lidar LVIS data. We found a general good agreement between forest height estimated from radar data and forest height estimated from lidar data.

Spatial distribution of tree species governs the spatio-temporal interaction of leaf area index and soil moisture across a forested landscape.

PubMed

Naithani, Kusum J; Baldwin, Doug C; Gaines, Katie P; Lin, Henry; Eissenstat, David M

2013-01-01

Quantifying coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of phenology and hydrology and understanding underlying processes is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrology. While variation in phenology and factors influencing it have attracted the attention of ecologists for a long time, the influence of biodiversity on coupled dynamics of phenology and hydrology across a landscape is largely untested. We measured leaf area index (L) and volumetric soil water content (θ) on a co-located spatial grid to characterize forest phenology and hydrology across a forested catchment in central Pennsylvania during 2010. We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of L and θ. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of tree species across the landscape created unique spatio-temporal patterns of L, which created patterns of water demand reflected in variable soil moisture across space and time. We found a lag of about 11 days between increase in L and decline in θ. Vegetation and soil moisture become increasingly homogenized and coupled from leaf-onset to maturity but heterogeneous and uncoupled from leaf maturity to senescence. Our results provide insight into spatio-temporal coupling between biodiversity and soil hydrology that is useful to enhance ecohydrological modeling in humid temperate forests.

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

2014-01-01

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial-temporal models for improved county-level annual estimates

Treesearch

Francis Roesch

2009-01-01

The consumers of data derived from extensive forest inventories often seek annual estimates at a finer spatial scale than that which the inventory was designed to provide. This paper discusses a few model-based and model-assisted estimators to consider for county level attributes that can be applied when the sample would otherwise be inadequate for producing low-...

WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

Treesearch

Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

2002-01-01

A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

ML-Space: Hybrid Spatial Gillespie and Particle Simulation of Multi-Level Rule-Based Models in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Bittig, Arne T; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cellular processes can be simulated at different levels of detail, from (deterministic) partial differential equations via the spatial Stochastic Simulation algorithm to tracking Brownian trajectories of individual particles. We present a spatial simulation approach for multi-level rule-based models, which includes dynamically hierarchically nested cellular compartments and entities. Our approach ML-Space combines discrete compartmental dynamics, stochastic spatial approaches in discrete space, and particles moving in continuous space. The rule-based specification language of ML-Space supports concise and compact descriptions of models and to adapt the spatial resolution of models easily.

A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Karanth, K. Ullas

2017-01-01

MotivationSeveral spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.Model and data analysisWe developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.BenefitsOur approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in cases where spatial covariates of abundance are unknown or unavailable. We illustrated these benefits in the analysis of our data, which allowed us to quantify differences between nocturnal and diurnal activities of tigers and to estimate their spatial distribution and abundance across the study area. Our continuous-time SCR model allows an analyst to specify many of the ecological processes thought to be involved in the distribution, movement, and behavior of animals detected in a spatial trapping array of continuous-time recorders. We plan to extend this model to estimate the population dynamics of animals detected during multiple years of SCR surveys.

Spatial-temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007-13.

PubMed

Waruru, Anthony; Achia, Thomas N O; Muttai, Hellen; Ng'ang'a, Lucy; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Ochanda, Boniface; Katana, Abraham; Young, Peter W; Tobias, James L; Juma, Peter; De Cock, Kevin M; Tylleskär, Thorkild

2018-01-01

Using spatial-temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial-temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (<8 weeks after birth), age at specimen collection, infant ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial-temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5-5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p < 0.01. Uptake of testing ≤8 weeks after birth was under 50% in 2007 and increased to 64.1% by 2013, p < 0.01. By 2013, the overall standardized MTCT rate was 447 infections per 100,000 live births. Based on Bayesian deviance information criterion comparisons, the spatial-temporal model with maternal and infant covariates was best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in programmatic impact over time. During this pre-Option B+ period, the prevention of mother to child transmission program in this region has not achieved e-MTCT target of ≤50 infections per 100,000 live births. Geographical disparities in program achievements may signify gaps in spatial distribution of e-MTCT efforts and could indicate areas needing further resources and interventions.

Deep recurrent neural network reveals a hierarchy of process memory during dynamic natural vision.

PubMed

Shi, Junxing; Wen, Haiguang; Zhang, Yizhen; Han, Kuan; Liu, Zhongming

2018-05-01

The human visual cortex extracts both spatial and temporal visual features to support perception and guide behavior. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide a computational framework to model cortical representation and organization for spatial visual processing, but unable to explain how the brain processes temporal information. To overcome this limitation, we extended a CNN by adding recurrent connections to different layers of the CNN to allow spatial representations to be remembered and accumulated over time. The extended model, or the recurrent neural network (RNN), embodied a hierarchical and distributed model of process memory as an integral part of visual processing. Unlike the CNN, the RNN learned spatiotemporal features from videos to enable action recognition. The RNN better predicted cortical responses to natural movie stimuli than the CNN, at all visual areas, especially those along the dorsal stream. As a fully observable model of visual processing, the RNN also revealed a cortical hierarchy of temporal receptive window, dynamics of process memory, and spatiotemporal representations. These results support the hypothesis of process memory, and demonstrate the potential of using the RNN for in-depth computational understanding of dynamic natural vision. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

PubMed Central

Banet, Amanda I.; Trexler, Joel C.

2013-01-01

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable. PMID:24278368

Spatial and temporal predictions of agricultural land prices using DSM techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carré, F.; Grandgirard, D.; Diafas, I.; Reuter, H. I.; Julien, V.; Lemercier, B.

2009-04-01

Agricultural land prices highly impacts land accessibility to farmers and by consequence the evolution of agricultural landscapes (crop changes, land conversion to urban infrastructures…) which can turn to irreversible soil degradation. The economic value of agricultural land has been studied spatially, in every one of the 374 French Agricultural Counties, and temporally- from 1995 to 2007, by using data of the SAFER Institute. To this aim, agricultural land price was considered as a digital soil property. The spatial and temporal predictions were done using Digital Soil Mapping techniques combined with tools mainly used for studying temporal financial behaviors. For making both predictions, a first classification of the Agricultural Counties was done for the 1995-2006 periods (2007 was excluded and served as the date of prediction) using a fuzzy k-means clustering. The Agricultural Counties were then aggregated according to land price at the different times. The clustering allows for characterizing the counties by their memberships to each class centroid. The memberships were used for the spatial prediction, whereas the centroids were used for the temporal prediction. For the spatial prediction, from the 374 Agricultural counties, three fourths were used for modeling and one fourth for validating. Random sampling was done by class to ensure that all classes are represented by at least one county in the modeling and validation datasets. The prediction was done for each class by testing the relationships between the memberships and the following factors: (i) soil variable (organic matter from the French BDAT database), (ii) soil covariates (land use classes from CORINE LANDCOVER, bioclimatic zones from the WorldClim Database, landform attributes and landform classes from the SRTM, major roads and hydrographic densities from EUROSTAT, average field sizes estimated by automatic classification of remote sensed images) and (iii) socio-economic factors (population density, gross domestic product and its combination with the population density obtained from EUROSTAT). Linear (Generalized Linear Models) and non-linear models (neural network) were used for building the relationships. For the validation, the relationships were applied to the validation datasets. The RMSE and the coefficient of determination (from a linear regression) between predicted and actual memberships, and the contingency table between the predicted and actual allocation classes were used as validation criteria. The temporal prediction was done on the year 2007 from the centroid land prices characterizing the 1995-2006 period. For each class, the land prices of the time-series 1995-2006 were modeled using an Auto-Regressive Moving Average approach. For the validation, the models were applied to the year 2007. The RMSE between predicted and actual prices is used as the validation criteria. We then discussed the methods and the results of the spatial and temporal validation. Based on this methodology, an extrapolation will be tested on another European country with land price market similar to France (to be determined).

Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue infections in Timor-Leste, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Clements, Archie C A; Du, Tai; Nery, Susana Vaz

2018-01-04

Dengue remains an important public health problem in Timor-Leste, with several major epidemics occurring over the last 10 years. The aim of this study was to identify dengue clusters at high geographical resolution and to determine the association between local environmental characteristics and the distribution and transmission of the disease. Notifications of dengue cases that occurred from January 2005 to December 2013 were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Timor-Leste. The population of each suco (the third-level administrative subdivision) was obtained from the Population and Housing Census 2010. Spatial autocorrelation in dengue incidence was explored using Moran's I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate, Zero-Inflated, Poisson (ZIP) regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with Gibbs sampling. The analysis used data from 3206 cases. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal with a large peak in January. Patients ≥ 14 years were found to be 74% [95% credible interval (CrI): 72-76%] less likely to be infected than those < 14 years, and females were 12% (95% CrI: 4-21%) more likely to suffer from dengue as compared to males. Dengue incidence increased by 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.6-0.8%) for a 1 °C increase in mean temperature; and 47% (95% CrI: 29-59%) for a 1 mm increase in precipitation. There was no significant residual spatial clustering after accounting for climate and demographic variables. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal and spatially clustered, with positive associations with temperature, precipitation and demographic factors. These factors explained the observed spatial heterogeneity of infection.

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

Biweekly disturbance capture and attribution: case study in western Alberta grizzly bear habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilker, Thomas; Coops, Nicholas C.; Gaulton, Rachel; Wulder, Michael A.; Cranston, Jerome; Stenhouse, Gordon

2011-01-01

An increasing number of studies have demonstrated the impact of landscape disturbance on ecosystems. Satellite remote sensing can be used for mapping disturbances, and fusion techniques of sensors with complimentary characteristics can help to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of satellite-based mapping techniques. Classification of different disturbance types from satellite observations is difficult, yet important, especially in an ecological context as different disturbance types might have different impacts on vegetation recovery, wildlife habitats, and food resources. We demonstrate a possible approach for classifying common disturbance types by means of their spatial characteristics. First, landscape level change is characterized on a near biweekly basis through application of a data fusion model (spatial temporal adaptive algorithm for mapping reflectance change) and a number of spatial and temporal characteristics of the predicted disturbance patches are inferred. A regression tree approach is then used to classify disturbance events. Our results show that spatial and temporal disturbance characteristics can be used to classify disturbance events with an overall accuracy of 86% of the disturbed area observed. The date of disturbance was identified as the most powerful predictor of the disturbance type, together with the patch core area, patch size, and contiguity.

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

Quantifying spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.; Owe, M.; Ormsby, J. P.; Chang, A. T. C.; Wang, J. R.; Goward, S. N.; Golus, R. E.

1987-01-01

Spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains are quantified in terms of vegetation and soil wetness. The brightness temperatures (TB) are the daytime observations from April to October for five years (1979 to 1983) obtained by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer at 6.6 GHz frequency, horizontal polarization. The spatial and temporal variabilities of vegetation are assessed using visible and near-infrared observations by the NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), while an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model is used for soil wetness. The API model was able to account for more than 50 percent of the observed variability in TB, although linear correlations between TB and API were generally significant at the 1 percent level. The slope of the linear regression between TB and API is found to correlate linearly with an index for vegetation density derived from AVHRR data.

Improving Access to MODIS Biophysical Science Products for NACP Investigators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, Robert E.; Gao, Feng; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ederer, Gregory A.; Pedelty, Jeffrey A.

2007-01-01

MODIS 4 NACP is a NASA-funded project supporting the North American Carbon Program (NACP). The purpose of this Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth-Sun System Science (ACCESS) project is to provide researchers with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) biophysical data products that are custom tailored for use in NACP model studies. Standard MODIS biophysical products provide used to improve our understanding on the climate and ecosystem changes. However, direct uses of the MODIS biophysical parameters are constrained by retrieval quality and cloud contamination. Another challenge that NACP users face is acquiring MODIS data in formats and at spatial-temporal resolutions consistent with other data sets they use. We have been working closely with key NACP users to tailor the MODIS products to fit their needs. First, we provide new temporally smoothed and spatially continuous MODIS biophysical data sets. Second, we are distributing MODIS data at suitable spatial-temporal resolutions and in formats consistent with other data integration into model studies.

Learning Spatially-Smooth Mappings in Non-Rigid Structure from Motion

PubMed Central

Hamsici, Onur C.; Gotardo, Paulo F.U.; Martinez, Aleix M.

2013-01-01

Non-rigid structure from motion (NRSFM) is a classical underconstrained problem in computer vision. A common approach to make NRSFM more tractable is to constrain 3D shape deformation to be smooth over time. This constraint has been used to compress the deformation model and reduce the number of unknowns that are estimated. However, temporal smoothness cannot be enforced when the data lacks temporal ordering and its benefits are less evident when objects undergo abrupt deformations. This paper proposes a new NRSFM method that addresses these problems by considering deformations as spatial variations in shape space and then enforcing spatial, rather than temporal, smoothness. This is done by modeling each 3D shape coefficient as a function of its input 2D shape. This mapping is learned in the feature space of a rotation invariant kernel, where spatial smoothness is intrinsically defined by the mapping function. As a result, our model represents shape variations compactly using custom-built coefficient bases learned from the input data, rather than a pre-specified set such as the Discrete Cosine Transform. The resulting kernel-based mapping is a by-product of the NRSFM solution and leads to another fundamental advantage of our approach: for a newly observed 2D shape, its 3D shape is recovered by simply evaluating the learned function. PMID:23946937

Learning Spatially-Smooth Mappings in Non-Rigid Structure from Motion.

PubMed

Hamsici, Onur C; Gotardo, Paulo F U; Martinez, Aleix M

2012-01-01

Non-rigid structure from motion (NRSFM) is a classical underconstrained problem in computer vision. A common approach to make NRSFM more tractable is to constrain 3D shape deformation to be smooth over time. This constraint has been used to compress the deformation model and reduce the number of unknowns that are estimated. However, temporal smoothness cannot be enforced when the data lacks temporal ordering and its benefits are less evident when objects undergo abrupt deformations. This paper proposes a new NRSFM method that addresses these problems by considering deformations as spatial variations in shape space and then enforcing spatial, rather than temporal, smoothness. This is done by modeling each 3D shape coefficient as a function of its input 2D shape. This mapping is learned in the feature space of a rotation invariant kernel, where spatial smoothness is intrinsically defined by the mapping function. As a result, our model represents shape variations compactly using custom-built coefficient bases learned from the input data, rather than a pre-specified set such as the Discrete Cosine Transform. The resulting kernel-based mapping is a by-product of the NRSFM solution and leads to another fundamental advantage of our approach: for a newly observed 2D shape, its 3D shape is recovered by simply evaluating the learned function.

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive social learning strategies in temporally and spatially varying environments : how temporal vs. spatial variation, number of cultural traits, and costs of learning influence the evolution of conformist-biased transmission, payoff-biased transmission, and individual learning.

PubMed

Nakahashi, Wataru; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Henrich, Joseph

2012-12-01

Long before the origins of agriculture human ancestors had expanded across the globe into an immense variety of environments, from Australian deserts to Siberian tundra. Survival in these environments did not principally depend on genetic adaptations, but instead on evolved learning strategies that permitted the assembly of locally adaptive behavioral repertoires. To develop hypotheses about these learning strategies, we have modeled the evolution of learning strategies to assess what conditions and constraints favor which kinds of strategies. To build on prior work, we focus on clarifying how spatial variability, temporal variability, and the number of cultural traits influence the evolution of four types of strategies: (1) individual learning, (2) unbiased social learning, (3) payoff-biased social learning, and (4) conformist transmission. Using a combination of analytic and simulation methods, we show that spatial-but not temporal-variation strongly favors the emergence of conformist transmission. This effect intensifies when migration rates are relatively high and individual learning is costly. We also show that increasing the number of cultural traits above two favors the evolution of conformist transmission, which suggests that the assumption of only two traits in many models has been conservative. We close by discussing how (1) spatial variability represents only one way of introducing the low-level, nonadaptive phenotypic trait variation that so favors conformist transmission, the other obvious way being learning errors, and (2) our findings apply to the evolution of conformist transmission in social interactions. Throughout we emphasize how our models generate empirical predictions suitable for laboratory testing.

Control of the amplifications of large-band amplitude-modulated pulses in an Nd-glass amplifier chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Videau, Laurent; Bar, Emmanuel; Rouyer, Claude; Gouedard, Claude; Garnier, Josselin C.; Migus, Arnold

1999-07-01

We study nonlinear effects in amplification of partially coherent pulses in a high power laser chain. We compare statistical models with experimental results for temporal and spatial effects. First we show the interplay between self-phase modulation which broadens spectrum bandwidth and gain narrowing which reduces output spectrum. Theoretical results are presented for spectral broadening and energy limitation in case of time-incoherent pulses. In a second part, we introduce spatial incoherence with a multimode optical fiber which provides a smoothed beam. We show with experimental result that spatial filter pinholes are responsible for additive energy losses in the amplification. We develop a statistical model which takes into account the deformation of the focused beam as a function of B integral. We estimate the energy transmission of the spatial filter pinholes and compare this model with experimental data. We find a good agreement between theory and experiments. As a conclusion, we present an analogy between temporal and spatial effects with spectral broadening and spectral filter. Finally, we propose some solutions to control energy limitations in smoothed pulses amplification.

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE PAGES

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep; ...

2016-04-06

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-07-01

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subpixel Snow Cover Mapping from MODIS Data by Nonparametric Regression Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Kuter, S.; Weber, G. W.

2016-12-01

Spatial extent of snow cover is often considered as one of the key parameters in climatological, hydrological and ecological modeling due to its energy storage, high reflectance in the visible and NIR regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, significant heat capacity and insulating properties. A significant challenge in snow mapping by remote sensing (RS) is the trade-off between the temporal and spatial resolution of satellite imageries. In order to tackle this issue, machine learning-based subpixel snow mapping methods, like Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), from low or moderate resolution images have been proposed. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a nonparametric regression tool that can build flexible models for high dimensional and complex nonlinear data. Although MARS is not often employed in RS, it has various successful implementations such as estimation of vertical total electron content in ionosphere, atmospheric correction and classification of satellite images. This study is the first attempt in RS to evaluate the applicability of MARS for subpixel snow cover mapping from MODIS data. Total 16 MODIS-Landsat ETM+ image pairs taken over European Alps between March 2000 and April 2003 were used in the study. MODIS top-of-atmospheric reflectance, NDSI, NDVI and land cover classes were used as predictor variables. Cloud-covered, cloud shadow, water and bad-quality pixels were excluded from further analysis by a spatial mask. MARS models were trained and validated by using reference fractional snow cover (FSC) maps generated from higher spatial resolution Landsat ETM+ binary snow cover maps. A multilayer feed-forward ANN with one hidden layer trained with backpropagation was also developed. The mutual comparison of obtained MARS and ANN models was accomplished on independent test areas. The MARS model performed better than the ANN model with an average RMSE of 0.1288 over the independent test areas; whereas the average RMSE of the ANN model was 0.1500. MARS estimates for low FSC values (i.e., FSC<0.3) were better than that of ANN. Both ANN and MARS tended to overestimate medium FSC values (i.e., 0.30.7).

The medial temporal lobes distinguish between within-item and item-context relations during autobiographical memory retrieval.

PubMed

Sheldon, Signy; Levine, Brian

2015-12-01

During autobiographical memory retrieval, the medial temporal lobes (MTL) relate together multiple event elements, including object (within-item relations) and context (item-context relations) information, to create a cohesive memory. There is consistent support for a functional specialization within the MTL according to these relational processes, much of which comes from recognition memory experiments. In this study, we compared brain activation patterns associated with retrieving within-item relations (i.e., associating conceptual and sensory-perceptual object features) and item-context relations (i.e., spatial relations among objects) with respect to naturalistic autobiographical retrieval. We developed a novel paradigm that cued participants to retrieve information about past autobiographical events, non-episodic within-item relations, and non-episodic item-context relations with the perceptuomotor aspects of retrieval equated across these conditions. We used multivariate analysis techniques to extract common and distinct patterns of activity among these conditions within the MTL and across the whole brain, both in terms of spatial and temporal patterns of activity. The anterior MTL (perirhinal cortex and anterior hippocampus) was preferentially recruited for generating within-item relations later in retrieval whereas the posterior MTL (posterior parahippocampal cortex and posterior hippocampus) was preferentially recruited for generating item-context relations across the retrieval phase. These findings provide novel evidence for functional specialization within the MTL with respect to naturalistic memory retrieval. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, have long been an obstacle to the timely and cost-effective use of such complex models by resource managers. The U.S. EPA Landscape Ecology Branch in collaboration with the USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center has developed a geographic information system (GIS) tool to facilitate this process. A GIS provides the framework within which spatially distributed data are collected and used to prepare model input files, and model results are evaluated. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool uses widely available standardized spatial datasets that can be obtained via the internet at no cost to the user. The data are used to develop input parameter files for KINEROS2 and SWAT, two watershed runoff and erosion simulation models that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. AGWA automates the process of transforming digital data into simulation model results and provides a visualization tool

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Sharma, Ashish

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media.

PubMed

Sonter, Laura J; Watson, Keri B; Wood, Spencer A; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18-20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian model selection for disease mapping

PubMed Central

Carroll, R; Lawson, AB; Faes, C; Kirby, RS; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2016-01-01

Spatio-temporal analysis of small area health data often involves choosing a fixed set of predictors prior to the final model fit. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach of Bayesian model selection to implement model selection for certain areas of the study region as well as certain years in the study time line. Here, we examine the usefulness of this approach by way of a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a case study. Our results suggest that a special case of the model selection methods, a mixture model allowing a weight parameter to indicate if the appropriate linear predictor is spatial, spatio-temporal, or a mixture of the two, offers the best option to fitting these spatio-temporal models. In addition, the case study illustrates the effectiveness of this mixture model within the model selection setting by easily accommodating lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables to select a predominantly spatio-temporal linear predictor. PMID:28070156

Robust Kriged Kalman Filtering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baingana, Brian; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Mateos, Gonzalo

2015-11-11

Although the kriged Kalman filter (KKF) has well-documented merits for prediction of spatial-temporal processes, its performance degrades in the presence of outliers due to anomalous events, or measurement equipment failures. This paper proposes a robust KKF model that explicitly accounts for presence of measurement outliers. Exploiting outlier sparsity, a novel l1-regularized estimator that jointly predicts the spatial-temporal process at unmonitored locations, while identifying measurement outliers is put forth. Numerical tests are conducted on a synthetic Internet protocol (IP) network, and real transformer load data. Test results corroborate the effectiveness of the novel estimator in joint spatial prediction and outlier identification.

OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin

2017-12-01

Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

Integrating Eddy Covariance, Penman-Monteith and METRIC based Evapotranspiration estimates to generate high resolution space-time ET over the Brazos River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbabazi, D.; Mohanty, B.; Gaur, N.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water and energy balance and accounts for 60 -70% of precipitation losses. However, accurate estimates of ET are difficult to quantify at varying spatial and temporal scales. Eddy covariance methods estimate ET at high temporal resolutions but without capturing the spatial variation in ET within its footprint. On the other hand, remote sensing methods using Landsat imagery provide ET with high spatial resolution but low temporal resolution (16 days). In this study, we used both eddy covariance and remote sensing methods to generate high space-time resolution ET. Daily, monthly and seasonal ET estimates were obtained using the eddy covariance (EC) method, Penman-Monteith (PM) and Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) models to determine cotton and native prairie ET dynamics in the Brazos river basin characterized by varying hydro-climatic and geological gradients. Daily estimates of spatially distributed ET (30 m resolution) were generated using spatial autocorrelation and temporal interpolations between the EC flux variable footprints and METRIC ET for the 2016 and 2017 growing seasons. A comparison of the 2016 and 2017 preliminary daily ET estimates showed similar ET dynamics/trends among the EC, PM and METRIC methods, and 5-20% differences in seasonal ET estimates. This study will improve the spatial estimates of EC ET and temporal resolution of satellite derived ET thus providing better ET data for water use management.

Functional cardiac magnetic resonance microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brau, Anja Christina Sophie

2003-07-01

The study of small animal models of human cardiovascular disease is critical to our understanding of the origin, progression, and treatment of this pervasive disease. Complete analysis of disease pathophysiology in these animal models requires measuring structural and functional changes at the level of the whole heart---a task for which an appropriate non-invasive imaging method is needed. The purpose of this work was thus to develop an imaging technique to support in vivo characterization of cardiac structure and function in rat and mouse models of cardiovascular disease. Whereas clinical cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides accurate assessment of the human heart, the extension of cardiac MRI from humans to rodents presents several formidable scaling challenges. Acquiring images of the mouse heart with organ definition and fluidity of contraction comparable to that achieved in humans requires an increase in spatial resolution by a factor of 3000 and an increase in temporal resolution by a factor of ten. No single technical innovation can meet the demanding imaging requirements imposed by the small animal. A functional cardiac magnetic resonance microscopy technique was developed by integrating improvements in physiological control, imaging hardware, biological synchronization of imaging, and pulse sequence design to achieve high-quality images of the murine heart with high spatial and temporal resolution. The specific methods and results from three different sets of imaging experiments are presented: (1) 2D functional imaging in the rat with spatial resolution of 175 mum2 x 1 mm and temporal resolution of 10 ms; (2) 3D functional imaging in the rat with spatial resolution of 100 mum 2 x 500 mum and temporal resolution of 30 ms; and (3) 2D functional imaging in the mouse with spatial resolution down to 100 mum2 x 1 mm and temporal resolution of 10 ms. The cardiac microscopy technique presented here represents a novel collection of technologies capable of acquiring routine high-quality images of murine cardiac structure and function with minimal artifacts and markedly higher spatial resolution compared to conventional techniques. This work is poised to serve a valuable role in the evaluation of cardiovascular disease and should find broad application in studies ranging from basic pathophysiology to drug discovery.

Correlation Factors Describing Primary and Spatial Sensations of Sound Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ANDO, Y.

2002-11-01

The theory of subjective preference of the sound field in a concert hall is established based on the model of human auditory-brain system. The model consists of the autocorrelation function (ACF) mechanism and the interaural crosscorrelation function (IACF) mechanism for signals arriving at two ear entrances, and the specialization of human cerebral hemispheres. This theory can be developed to describe primary sensations such as pitch or missing fundamental, loudness, timbre and, in addition, duration sensation which is introduced here as a fourth. These four primary sensations may be formulated by the temporal factors extracted from the ACF associated with the left hemisphere and, spatial sensations such as localization in the horizontal plane, apparent source width and subjective diffuseness are described by the spatial factors extracted from the IACF associated with the right hemisphere. Any important subjective responses of sound fields may be described by both temporal and spatial factors.

Food web dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Trexler, J.C.; Donalson, D.D.

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit model is developed to simulate the small fish community and its underlying food web, in the freshwater marshes of the Everglades. The community is simplified to a few small fish species feeding on periphyton and invertebrates. Other compartments are detritus, crayfish, and a piscivorous fish species. This unit food web model is applied to each of the 10,000 spatial cells on a 100 x 100 pixel landscape. Seasonal variation in water level is assumed and rules are assigned for fish movement in response to rising and falling water levels, which can cause many spatial cells to alternate between flooded and dry conditions. It is shown that temporal variations of water level on a spatially heterogeneous landscape can maintain at least three competing fish species. In addition, these environmental factors can strongly affect the temporal variation of the food web caused by top-down control from the piscivorous fish.

Void Growth and Coalescence Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

distortion and damage, minimum time step, and appropriate material model parameters. Further, a temporal and spatial convergence study was used to...estimate errors, thus, this study helps to provide guidelines for modeling of materials with voids. Finally, we use a Gurson model with Johnson-Cook...spatial convergence study was used to estimate errors, thus, this study helps to provide guidelines for modeling of materials with voids. Finally, we

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. I.; Somerfield, P. J.; Gilbert, F. J.

2007-01-01

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988-1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

How Fast Do Objects Fall in Visual Memory? Uncovering the Temporal and Spatial Features of Representational Gravity

PubMed Central

De Sá Teixeira, Nuno

2016-01-01

Visual memory for the spatial location where a moving target vanishes has been found to be systematically displaced downward in the direction of gravity. Moreover, it was recently reported that the magnitude of the downward error increases steadily with increasing retention intervals imposed after object’s offset and before observers are allowed to perform the spatial localization task, in a pattern where the remembered vanishing location drifts downward as if following a falling trajectory. This outcome was taken to reflect the dynamics of a representational model of earth’s gravity. The present study aims to establish the spatial and temporal features of this downward drift by taking into account the dynamics of the motor response. The obtained results show that the memory for the last location of the target drifts downward with time, thus replicating previous results. Moreover, the time taken for completion of the behavioural localization movements seems to add to the imposed retention intervals in determining the temporal frame during which the visual memory is updated. Overall, it is reported that the representation of spatial location drifts downward by about 3 pixels for each two-fold increase of time until response. The outcomes are discussed in relation to a predictive internal model of gravity which outputs an on-line spatial update of remembered objects’ location. PMID:26910260

How Fast Do Objects Fall in Visual Memory? Uncovering the Temporal and Spatial Features of Representational Gravity.

PubMed

De Sá Teixeira, Nuno

2016-01-01

Visual memory for the spatial location where a moving target vanishes has been found to be systematically displaced downward in the direction of gravity. Moreover, it was recently reported that the magnitude of the downward error increases steadily with increasing retention intervals imposed after object's offset and before observers are allowed to perform the spatial localization task, in a pattern where the remembered vanishing location drifts downward as if following a falling trajectory. This outcome was taken to reflect the dynamics of a representational model of earth's gravity. The present study aims to establish the spatial and temporal features of this downward drift by taking into account the dynamics of the motor response. The obtained results show that the memory for the last location of the target drifts downward with time, thus replicating previous results. Moreover, the time taken for completion of the behavioural localization movements seems to add to the imposed retention intervals in determining the temporal frame during which the visual memory is updated. Overall, it is reported that the representation of spatial location drifts downward by about 3 pixels for each two-fold increase of time until response. The outcomes are discussed in relation to a predictive internal model of gravity which outputs an on-line spatial update of remembered objects' location.

Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Validation of temporal and spatial consistency of facility- and speed-specific vehicle-specific power distributions for emission estimation: A case study in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Zhai, Zhiqiang; Song, Guohua; Lu, Hongyu; He, Weinan; Yu, Lei

2017-09-01

Vehicle-specific power (VSP) has been found to be highly correlated with vehicle emissions. It is used in many studies on emission modeling such as the MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. The existing studies develop specific VSP distributions (or OpMode distribution in MOVES) for different road types and various average speeds to represent the vehicle operating modes on road. However, it is still not clear if the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions are consistent temporally and spatially. For instance, is it necessary to update periodically the database of the VSP distributions in the emission model? Are the VSP distributions developed in the city central business district (CBD) area applicable to its suburb area? In this context, this study examined the temporal and spatial consistency of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions in Beijing. The VSP distributions in different years and in different areas are developed, based on real-world vehicle activity data. The root mean square error (RMSE) is employed to quantify the difference between the VSP distributions. The maximum differences of the VSP distributions between different years and between different areas are approximately 20% of that between different road types. The analysis of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission factor indicates that the temporal and spatial differences of the VSP distributions have no significant impact on vehicle emission estimation, with relative error of less than 3%. The temporal and spatial differences have no significant impact on the development of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions for the vehicle emission estimation. The database of the specific VSP distributions in the VSP-based emission models can maintain in terms of time. Thus, it is unnecessary to update the database regularly, and it is reliable to use the history vehicle activity data to forecast the emissions in the future. In one city, the areas with less data can still develop accurate VSP distributions based on better data from other areas.

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation. Copyright ?? 2005 The Author(s).

Coupled stochastic spatial and non-spatial simulations of ErbB1 signaling pathways demonstrate the importance of spatial organization in signal transduction.

PubMed

Costa, Michelle N; Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Wilson, Bridget S; Vlachos, Dionisios G; Edwards, Jeremy S

2009-07-23

The ErbB family of receptors activates intracellular signaling pathways that control cellular proliferation, growth, differentiation and apoptosis. Given these central roles, it is not surprising that overexpression of the ErbB receptors is often associated with carcinogenesis. Therefore, extensive laboratory studies have been devoted to understanding the signaling events associated with ErbB activation. Systems biology has contributed significantly to our current understanding of ErbB signaling networks. However, although computational models have grown in complexity over the years, little work has been done to consider the spatial-temporal dynamics of receptor interactions and to evaluate how spatial organization of membrane receptors influences signaling transduction. Herein, we explore the impact of spatial organization of the epidermal growth factor receptor (ErbB1/EGFR) on the initiation of downstream signaling. We describe the development of an algorithm that couples a spatial stochastic model of membrane receptors with a nonspatial stochastic model of the reactions and interactions in the cytosol. This novel algorithm provides a computationally efficient method to evaluate the effects of spatial heterogeneity on the coupling of receptors to cytosolic signaling partners. Mathematical models of signal transduction rarely consider the contributions of spatial organization due to high computational costs. A hybrid stochastic approach simplifies analyses of the spatio-temporal aspects of cell signaling and, as an example, demonstrates that receptor clustering contributes significantly to the efficiency of signal propagation from ligand-engaged growth factor receptors.

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG.

PubMed

Daly, Ian; Sweeney-Reed, Catherine M; Nasuto, Slawomir J

2013-06-01

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

Small target detection using bilateral filter and temporal cross product in infrared images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Tae-Wuk

2011-09-01

We introduce a spatial and temporal target detection method using spatial bilateral filter (BF) and temporal cross product (TCP) of temporal pixels in infrared (IR) image sequences. At first, the TCP is presented to extract the characteristics of temporal pixels by using temporal profile in respective spatial coordinates of pixels. The TCP represents the cross product values by the gray level distance vector of a current temporal pixel and the adjacent temporal pixel, as well as the horizontal distance vector of the current temporal pixel and a temporal pixel corresponding to potential target center. The summation of TCP values of temporal pixels in spatial coordinates makes the temporal target image (TTI), which represents the temporal target information of temporal pixels in spatial coordinates. And then the proposed BF filter is used to extract the spatial target information. In order to predict background without targets, the proposed BF filter uses standard deviations obtained by an exponential mapping of the TCP value corresponding to the coordinate of a pixel processed spatially. The spatial target image (STI) is made by subtracting the predicted image from the original image. Thus, the spatial and temporal target image (STTI) is achieved by multiplying the STI and the TTI, and then targets finally are detected in STTI. In experimental result, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were computed experimentally to compare the objective performance. From the results, the proposed algorithm shows better discrimination of target and clutters and lower false alarm rates than the existing target detection methods.

Land use regression models to assess air pollution exposure in Mexico City using finer spatial and temporal input parameters.

PubMed

Son, Yeongkwon; Osornio-Vargas, Álvaro R; O'Neill, Marie S; Hystad, Perry; Texcalac-Sangrador, José L; Ohman-Strickland, Pamela; Meng, Qingyu; Schwander, Stephan

2018-05-17

The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is one of the largest and most populated urban environments in the world and experiences high air pollution levels. To develop models that estimate pollutant concentrations at fine spatiotemporal scales and provide improved air pollution exposure assessments for health studies in Mexico City. We developed finer spatiotemporal land use regression (LUR) models for PM 2.5 , PM 10 , O 3 , NO 2 , CO and SO 2 using mixed effect models with the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Hourly traffic density was included as a temporal variable besides meteorological and holiday variables. Models of hourly, daily, monthly, 6-monthly and annual averages were developed and evaluated using traditional and novel indices. The developed spatiotemporal LUR models yielded predicted concentrations with good spatial and temporal agreements with measured pollutant levels except for the hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 . Most of the LUR models met performance goals based on the standardized indices. LUR models with temporal scales greater than one hour were successfully developed using mixed effect models with LASSO and showed superior model performance compared to earlier LUR models, especially for time scales of a day or longer. The newly developed LUR models will be further refined with ongoing Mexico City air pollution sampling campaigns to improve personal exposure assessments. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.