Sample records for nash-sutcliffe efficiency index

  1. The effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on Variable Infiltration Capacity model performance and simulation of runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

    2015-09-01

    This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrological model performance and the simulation of runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the deviation of the simulated monthly runoff using the observed monthly LAI from simulated runoff using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly runoff in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5% to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59% to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements, from 4% to 25% in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, in sparsely forested sub-catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with observed monthly LAI instead of long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated sub-catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of runoff during wet and dry periods can be reduced to 25 mm and 35 mm respectively by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

  2. Effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on variable infiltration capacity model performance and simulation of streamflow during drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

    2014-09-01

    This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrologic model performance and the simulation of streamflow during drought using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) observed monthly LAI dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the percentage deviation of the simulated monthly streamflow using the observed monthly LAI from simulated streamflow using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly streamflow in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5 to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59 to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements from 4 to 25% in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in pasture dominated catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with the observed monthly LAI instead of the long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of streamflow during wet and dry periods can be reduced to some extent by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

  3. Improving the Performance of Temperature Index Snowmelt Model of SWAT by Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations. PMID:25165746

  4. A biomarker panel for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and NASH-related fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Younossi, Zobair M; Page, Sandra; Rafiq, Nila; Birerdinc, Aybike; Stepanova, Maria; Hossain, Noreen; Afendy, Arian; Younoszai, Zahra; Goodman, Zachary; Baranova, Ancha

    2011-04-01

    Patients with biopsy-proven NASH and especially those with fibrosis are at risk for progressive liver disease, emphasizing the clinical importance of developing non-invasive biomarkers for NASH and NASH-related fibrosis. This study examines the performance of a new biomarker panel for NASH and NASH-related fibrosis with a combination of clinical and laboratory variables. Enrolled patients had biopsy-proven NAFLD. Clinical data, laboratory data, and serum samples were collected at the time of biopsy. Fasting serum was assayed for adiponectin, resistin, glucose, M30, M65, Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (Timp-1), ProCollagen 3 N-terminal peptide (PIIINP), and hyaluronic acid (HA). Regression models predictive of NASH, NASH-related fibrosis, and NASH-related advanced fibrosis were designed and cross-validated. Of the 79 enrolled NAFLD patients, 40 had biopsy-proven NASH and 39 had non-NASH NAFLD. Clinical and laboratory data were from this cohort were used to develop a NAFLD Diagnostic Panel that includes three models (models for NASH, NASH-related fibrosis, and NASH-related advanced fibrosis). The model for predicting NASH includes diabetes, gender, BMI, triglycerides, M30 (apoptosis), and M65-M30 (necrosis) [AUC: 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70-0.89, 300 p value <9E 301 (-06)]. The NASH-related fibrosis prediction model includes the same predictors [AUC: 0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.88, 307 p value <0.00014]. Finally, the NASH-related advanced fibrosis model includes type 2 diabetes, serum triglycerides, Timp-1, and AST [AUC: 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70-0.89; p value, 0.000062]. This NAFLD Diagnostic Panel based on a clinical and laboratory data has good performance characteristics and is easy to use. This biomarker panel could become useful in the management of patients with NAFLD.

  5. Nash Social Welfare in Multiagent Resource Allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramezani, Sara; Endriss, Ulle

    We study different aspects of the multiagent resource allocation problem when the objective is to find an allocation that maximizes Nash social welfare, the product of the utilities of the individual agents. The Nash solution is an important welfare criterion that combines efficiency and fairness considerations. We show that the problem of finding an optimal outcome is NP-hard for a number of different languages for representing agent preferences; we establish new results regarding convergence to Nash-optimal outcomes in a distributed negotiation framework; and we design and test algorithms similar to those applied in combinatorial auctions for computing such an outcome directly.

  6. Tradeoffs among watershed model calibration targets for parameter estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation f...

  7. Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

    2004-01-01

    The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

  8. Molecular Pathogenesis of NASH

    PubMed Central

    Caligiuri, Alessandra; Gentilini, Alessandra; Marra, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the main cause of chronic liver disease in the Western world and a major health problem, owing to its close association with obesity, diabetes, and the metabolic syndrome. NASH progression results from numerous events originating within the liver, as well as from signals derived from the adipose tissue and the gastrointestinal tract. In a fraction of NASH patients, disease may progress, eventually leading to advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Understanding the mechanisms leading to NASH and its evolution to cirrhosis is critical to identifying effective approaches for the treatment of this condition. In this review, we focus on some of the most recent data reported on the pathogenesis of NASH and its fibrogenic progression, highlighting potential targets for treatment or identification of biomarkers of disease progression. PMID:27657051

  9. Evaluation of a watershed model for estimating daily flow using limited flow measurements

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and...

  10. Nash equilibrium and multi criterion aerodynamic optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Zhili; Zhang, Lianhe

    2016-06-01

    Game theory and its particular Nash Equilibrium (NE) are gaining importance in solving Multi Criterion Optimization (MCO) in engineering problems over the past decade. The solution of a MCO problem can be viewed as a NE under the concept of competitive games. This paper surveyed/proposed four efficient algorithms for calculating a NE of a MCO problem. Existence and equivalence of the solution are analyzed and proved in the paper based on fixed point theorem. Specific virtual symmetric Nash game is also presented to set up an optimization strategy for single objective optimization problems. Two numerical examples are presented to verify proposed algorithms. One is mathematical functions' optimization to illustrate detailed numerical procedures of algorithms, the other is aerodynamic drag reduction of civil transport wing fuselage configuration by using virtual game. The successful application validates efficiency of algorithms in solving complex aerodynamic optimization problem.

  11. The Nash equilibrium: A perspective

    PubMed Central

    Holt, Charles A.; Roth, Alvin E.

    2004-01-01

    In 1950, John Nash contributed a remarkable one-page PNAS article that defined and characterized a notion of equilibrium for n- person games. This notion, now called the “Nash equilibrium,” has been widely applied and adapted in economics and other behavioral sciences. Indeed, game theory, with the Nash equilibrium as its centerpiece, is becoming the most prominent unifying theory of social science. In this perspective, we summarize the historical context and subsequent impact of Nash's contribution. PMID:15024100

  12. An investigation of the Sutcliffe development theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dushan, J. D.

    1973-01-01

    Two case studies were used to test the Sutcliffe-Peterssen development theory for both cyclonic and anticyclonic development over the eastern United States. Each term was examined to determine when and where it made a significant contribution to the development process. Results indicate the advection of vorticity at the level of non-divergence exerts the dominant influence for initial cyclone development, and that the thermal terms (advection of thickness, stability, and diabatic influence) become important after development has begun. Anticyclonic development, however, depends primarily on the stability term throughout the life cycle of the anticyclone. Simple procedures for forecasting the development and movement of cyclones and anticyclones are listed. These rules indicate that routine National Meteorological Center analyses may be used to locate areas where the positive advection of 500-mb vorticity, indicative of cyclonic development, coincides with regions of severe weather activity. The development of anticyclones also is predicted easily. Regions of increasing stability, indicating anticyclonic development, may be located by use of National Meteorological Center radar summaries and analyses for 1000-500-mb thickness. A test of these techniques found them to be satisfactory for the case examined.

  13. Nash: genius with schizophrenia or vice versa?

    PubMed

    Funaki, Tevita

    2009-11-01

    Schizophrenia has many negative impacts on the wellbeing of individuals (sufferers). I will critically analyse Nash's experience with his illness of schizophrenia and his concept of wellness based on themes, his journey with schizophrenia and the support of this wife and friends. Ron Howard directed the movie, A Beautiful Mind based on Nash's biography about his mathematical genius and his struggle with schizophrenia. Nash only had one sister, Martha Nash who was born on November 16th, 1930. In terms of his mental health and wellness, Nash began to show signs of schizophrenia in 1958, on the threshold of his career. After 1970, by his choice, he never took antipsychotic medication again. In 1978, Nash was awarded the John von Neumann Theory Prize for his discovery of non-cooperative equilibria, now called Nash equilibria. As a result of Nash's illness, he adopted unhealthy practices that did not help him cope with schizophrenia. Recovery from mental illness has emphasised the importance of hope for the people experiencing mental illness. Nash's self-determinations enabled him to overcome the stigmatisation suffering due to schizophrenia. Nash experienced the five stages of coping with mental illness. The support of Nash's wife Alicia and the few close friends he had were paramount to his recovery and living with schizophrenia. Alicia had used cognitive coping strategies with her caring for Nash by having positive thinking in attempting to accept Nash's illness rather than denying that it existed and to understand the life experiences of a person with schizophrenia. Howard (2001) stated that it's about a 25% chance, that survivors of schizophrenia can regain clarity as Nash did within a certain time period.

  14. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in patients with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS).

    PubMed

    Hossain, Noreen; Stepanova, Maria; Afendy, Arian; Nader, Fatema; Younossi, Youssef; Rafiq, Nila; Goodman, Zachary; Younossi, Zobair M

    2011-04-01

    Both non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are associated with metabolic syndrome (MS) and insulin resistance (IR). Except for a few case reports, there are no systematic assessments of NASH in PCOS patients. To determine the prevalence of NASH and independent factors associated with NASH in a cohort of patients with documented PCOS. Patients with established diagnosis of PCOS and matched controls (matched for gender, age, and body mass index (BMI)) were included in the study. Causes of other liver diseases were systematically excluded by clinical and laboratory tests. Excessive alcohol use was defined as alcohol consumption of greater than 10 g/day. All liver biopsies were read by a single pathologist blinded to the clinical data. Histologic NASH was defined as steatosis with lobular inflammation and ballooning degeneration of hepatocytes with or without Mallory-Denk bodies or pericellular fibrosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses with logistic regression were performed to compare PCOS to matched controls. Sixty-six patients were included in the study (34 PCOS and 32 matched controls). Of PCOS patients, 73% had a liver biopsy while 78% of the matched controls had a liver biopsy. In comparing PCOS patients to the matched controls, clinical (BMI, waist circumference, type 2 diabetes, MS, or its components, any alcohol consumption in the prior year, ethnic background, age, gender, etc.) and laboratory data (aminotransferases, ferritin, glucose, etc.) were not significantly different (p > 0.05). However, PCOS patients tended to have more histologic NASH on their liver biopsies (44.0% vs. 20.8%, p = 0.08). Independent predictors of histologic NASH in PCOS patients were elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST), high triglycerides and small amounts of alcohol consumption (p = 0.019, 10-fold cross-validated AUC = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.56-0.94). Although about half of PCOS patients did not report any alcohol consumption, 50% did report

  15. Single non-invasive model to diagnose non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

    PubMed

    Otgonsuren, Munkhzul; Estep, Michael J; Hossain, Nayeem; Younossi, Elena; Frost, Spencer; Henry, Linda; Hunt, Sharon; Fang, Yun; Goodman, Zachary; Younossi, Zobair M

    2014-12-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). A liver biopsy is considered the "gold standard" for diagnosing/staging NASH. Identification of NAFLD/NASH using non-invasive tools is important for intervention. The study aims were to: develop/validate the predictive performance of a non-invasive model (index of NASH [ION]); assess the performance of a recognized non-invasive model (fatty liver index [FLI]) compared with ION for NAFLD diagnosis; determine which non-invasive model (FLI, ION, or NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS]) performed best in predicting age-adjusted mortality. From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III database, anthropometric, clinical, ultrasound, laboratory, and mortality data were obtained (n = 4458; n = 861 [19.3%] NAFLD by ultrasound) and used to develop the ION model, and then to compare the ION and FLI models for NAFLD diagnosis. For validation and diagnosis of NASH, liver biopsy data were used (n = 152). Age-adjusted Cox proportional hazard modeling estimated the association among the three non-invasive tests (FLI, ION, and NFS) and mortality. FLI's threshold score > 60 and ION's threshold score > 22 had similar specificity (FLI = 80% vs ION = 82%) for NAFLD diagnosis; FLI < 30 (80% sensitivity) and ION < 11 (81% sensitivity) excluded NAFLD. An ION score > 50 predicted histological NASH (92% specificity); the FLI model did not predict NASH or mortality. The ION model was best in predicting cardiovascular/diabetes-related mortality; NFS predicted overall or diabetes-related mortality. The ION model was superior in predicting NASH and mortality compared with the FLI model. Studies are needed to validate ION. © 2014 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  16.  The product of triglycerides and glucose as biomarker for screening simple steatosis and NASH in asymptomatic women.

    PubMed

    Simental-Mendía, Luis E; Simental-Mendía, Esteban; Rodríguez-Hernández, Heriberto; Rodríguez-Morán, Martha; Guerrero-Romero, Fernando

    2016-01-01

     Introduction and aim. Given that early identification of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an important issue for primary prevention of hepatic disease, the objectives of this study were to evaluate the efficacy of the product of triglyceride and glucose levels (TyG) for screening simple steatosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in asymptomatic women, and to compare its efficacy vs. other biomarkers for recognizing NAFLD. Asymptomatic women aged 20 to 65 years were enrolled into a cross-sectional study. The optimal values of TyG, for screening simple steatosis and NASH were established on a Receiver Operating Characteristic scatter plot; the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of TyG index were estimated versus liver biopsy. According sensitivity and specificity, the efficacy of TyG was compared versus the well-known clinical biomarkers for recognizing NAFLD. A total of 50 asymptomatic women were enrolled. The best cutoff point of TyG for screening simple steatosis was 4.58 (sensitivity 0.94, specificity 0.69); in addition, the best cutoff point of TyG index for screening NASH was 4.59 (sensitivity 0.87, specificity 0.69). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.03 and 0.08 for simple steatosis, and 2.80 and 0.18 for NASH. As compared versus SteatoTest, NashTest, Fatty liver index, and Algorithm, the TyG showed to be the best test for screening. TyG has high sensitivity and low negative likelihood ratio; as compared with other clinical biomarkers, the TyG showed to be the best test for screening simple steatosis and NASH.

  17. Wrestling J. B. Nash.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Gary D.

    This paper focuses on how between 1965 and the present, the field of recreation has and has not accomplished the goals of author and educator J. B. Nash's in regard to recreation, physical education, and health, focusing on public recreation sponsored by city governments, county governments, and special tax districts. The paper looks at Nash's…

  18. Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency

  19. Is cryptogenic cirrhosis different from NASH cirrhosis?

    PubMed

    Thuluvath, Paul J; Kantsevoy, Sergey; Thuluvath, Avesh J; Savva, Yulia

    2018-03-01

    We hypothesized that patients currently diagnosed with cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC) have truly 'cryptogenic' liver disease, which is unlikely to have evolved from NASH. The aim of this study is to characterize patients with CC, and compare their characteristics to patients with cirrhosis of other etiologies. To investigate this, we compared the clinical characteristics of adults with CC (n = 7,999) to those with cirrhosis caused by non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (n = 11,302), alcohol (n = 21,714) and autoimmune hepatitis (n = 3,447), using the UNOS database from 2002-16. We performed an age, gender and year of listing matched comparison of CC and NASH (n = 7,201 in each group), and also stratified patients by the presence of obesity or diabetes mellitus (DM). From 2002 to 2016, patients listed with a diagnosis of NASH increased from about 1% to 16% while CC decreased from 8% to 4%. A logistic regression model using the entire United Network for Organ Sharing data (n = 138,021) suggested that the strongest predictors of NASH were type 2 DM, obesity, age ≥60 years, female gender and white race. Type 2 DM was more common in patients with NASH (53%) than those with CC (29%), alcoholic cirrhosis (16%) and autoimmune hepatitis (16%), and obesity was more common in NASH (65.3%) compared to the other three groups (33-42%). There were more white individuals (82.3%) in the NASH group and a lower prevalence of black, Hispanic and Asian individuals, compared to the other three groups. Hepatocellular carcinoma was more commonly seen in NASH (19% vs. 9-13% in the other groups) and this is not influenced by obesity and type 2 DM. The differences between CC and NASH remained unchanged even when two groups were matched for age, gender and year of listing, or when stratified by the presence or absence of obesity or type 2DM. Based on risk perspectives, CC should not be equated with the term 'NASH cirrhosis'. We hypothesized that cryptogenic cirrhosis

  20. Dendritic Cells Limit Fibro-Inflammatory Injury in NASH

    PubMed Central

    Henning, Justin R.; Graffeo, Christopher S.; Rehman, Adeel; Fallon, Nina C.; Zambirinis, Constantinos P.; Ochi, Atsuo; Barilla, Rocky; Jamal, Mohsin; Deutsch, Michael; Greco, Stephanie; Ego-Osuala, Melvin; Saeed, Usama Bin; Rao, Raghavendra S.; Badar, Sana; Quesada, Juan P.; Acehan, Devrim; Miller, George

    2013-01-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the most common etiology of chronic liver dysfunction in the United States and can progress to cirrhosis and liver failure. Inflammatory insult resulting from fatty infiltration of the liver is central to disease pathogenesis. Dendritic cells (DC) are antigen presenting cells with an emerging role in hepatic inflammation. We postulated that DC are important in the progression of NASH. We found that intrahepatic DC expand and mature in NASH liver and assume an activated immune-phenotype. However, rather than mitigating the severity of NASH, DC depletion markedly exacerbated intrahepatic fibro-inflammation. Our mechanistic studies support a regulatory role for DC in NASH by limiting sterile inflammation via their role in clearance of apoptotic cells and necrotic debris. We found that DC limit CD8+ T cell expansion and restrict Toll-like receptor expression and cytokine production in innate immune effector cells in NASH, including Kupffer cells, neutrophils, and inflammatory monocytes. Consistent with their regulatory role in NASH, during the recovery phase of disease, ablation of DC populations results in delayed resolution of intrahepatic inflammation and fibroplasia. Conclusion Our findings support a role for DC in modulating NASH. Targeting DC functional properties may hold promise for therapeutic intervention in NASH. PMID:23322710

  1. Uncovering a Predictive Molecular Signature for the Onset of NASH-Related Fibrosis in a Translational NASH Mouse Model.

    PubMed

    van Koppen, Arianne; Verschuren, Lars; van den Hoek, Anita M; Verheij, Joanne; Morrison, Martine C; Li, Kelvin; Nagabukuro, Hiroshi; Costessi, Adalberto; Caspers, Martien P M; van den Broek, Tim J; Sagartz, John; Kluft, Cornelis; Beysen, Carine; Emson, Claire; van Gool, Alain J; Goldschmeding, Roel; Stoop, Reinout; Bobeldijk-Pastorova, Ivana; Turner, Scott M; Hanauer, Guido; Hanemaaijer, Roeland

    2018-01-01

    The incidence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is increasing. The pathophysiological mechanisms of NASH and the sequence of events leading to hepatic fibrosis are incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the dynamics of key molecular processes involved in NASH and to rank early markers for hepatic fibrosis. A time-course study in low-density lipoprotein-receptor knockout. Leiden mice on a high-fat diet was performed to identify the temporal dynamics of key processes contributing to NASH and fibrosis. An integrative systems biology approach was used to elucidate candidate markers linked to the active fibrosis process by combining transcriptomics, dynamic proteomics, and histopathology. The translational value of these findings were confirmed using human NASH data sets. High-fat-diet feeding resulted in obesity, hyperlipidemia, insulin resistance, and NASH with fibrosis in a time-dependent manner. Temporal dynamics of key molecular processes involved in the development of NASH were identified, including lipid metabolism, inflammation, oxidative stress, and fibrosis. A data-integrative approach enabled identification of the active fibrotic process preceding histopathologic detection using a novel molecular fibrosis signature. Human studies were used to identify overlap of genes and processes and to perform a network biology-based prioritization to rank top candidate markers representing the early manifestation of fibrosis. An early predictive molecular signature was identified that marked the active profibrotic process before histopathologic fibrosis becomes manifest. Early detection of the onset of NASH and fibrosis enables identification of novel blood-based biomarkers to stratify patients at risk, development of new therapeutics, and help shorten (pre)clinical experimental time frames.

  2. Computing Nash equilibria through computational intelligence methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlidis, N. G.; Parsopoulos, K. E.; Vrahatis, M. N.

    2005-03-01

    Nash equilibrium constitutes a central solution concept in game theory. The task of detecting the Nash equilibria of a finite strategic game remains a challenging problem up-to-date. This paper investigates the effectiveness of three computational intelligence techniques, namely, covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategies, particle swarm optimization, as well as, differential evolution, to compute Nash equilibria of finite strategic games, as global minima of a real-valued, nonnegative function. An issue of particular interest is to detect more than one Nash equilibria of a game. The performance of the considered computational intelligence methods on this problem is investigated using multistart and deflection.

  3. Local Nash equilibrium in social networks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M A; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

    2014-08-29

    Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures.

  4. Local Nash Equilibrium in Social Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M. A.; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

    2014-08-01

    Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures.

  5. On Nash-Equilibria of Approximation-Stable Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awasthi, Pranjal; Balcan, Maria-Florina; Blum, Avrim; Sheffet, Or; Vempala, Santosh

    One reason for wanting to compute an (approximate) Nash equilibrium of a game is to predict how players will play. However, if the game has multiple equilibria that are far apart, or ɛ-equilibria that are far in variation distance from the true Nash equilibrium strategies, then this prediction may not be possible even in principle. Motivated by this consideration, in this paper we define the notion of games that are approximation stable, meaning that all ɛ-approximate equilibria are contained inside a small ball of radius Δ around a true equilibrium, and investigate a number of their properties. Many natural small games such as matching pennies and rock-paper-scissors are indeed approximation stable. We show furthermore there exist 2-player n-by-n approximation-stable games in which the Nash equilibrium and all approximate equilibria have support Ω(log n). On the other hand, we show all (ɛ,Δ) approximation-stable games must have an ɛ-equilibrium of support O(Δ^{2-o(1)}/ɛ2{log n}), yielding an immediate n^{O(Δ^{2-o(1)}/ɛ^2log n)}-time algorithm, improving over the bound of [11] for games satisfying this condition. We in addition give a polynomial-time algorithm for the case that Δ and ɛ are sufficiently close together. We also consider an inverse property, namely that all non-approximate equilibria are far from some true equilibrium, and give an efficient algorithm for games satisfying that condition.

  6. Approximation of Nash equilibria and the network community structure detection problem

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Game theory based methods designed to solve the problem of community structure detection in complex networks have emerged in recent years as an alternative to classical and optimization based approaches. The Mixed Nash Extremal Optimization uses a generative relation for the characterization of Nash equilibria to identify the community structure of a network by converting the problem into a non-cooperative game. This paper proposes a method to enhance this algorithm by reducing the number of payoff function evaluations. Numerical experiments performed on synthetic and real-world networks show that this approach is efficient, with results better or just as good as other state-of-the-art methods. PMID:28467496

  7. Local Nash Equilibrium in Social Networks

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yichao; Aziz-Alaoui, M. A.; Bertelle, Cyrille; Guan, Jihong

    2014-01-01

    Nash equilibrium is widely present in various social disputes. As of now, in structured static populations, such as social networks, regular, and random graphs, the discussions on Nash equilibrium are quite limited. In a relatively stable static gaming network, a rational individual has to comprehensively consider all his/her opponents' strategies before they adopt a unified strategy. In this scenario, a new strategy equilibrium emerges in the system. We define this equilibrium as a local Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we present an explicit definition of the local Nash equilibrium for the two-strategy games in structured populations. Based on the definition, we investigate the condition that a system reaches the evolutionary stable state when the individuals play the Prisoner's dilemma and snow-drift game. The local Nash equilibrium provides a way to judge whether a gaming structured population reaches the evolutionary stable state on one hand. On the other hand, it can be used to predict whether cooperators can survive in a system long before the system reaches its evolutionary stable state for the Prisoner's dilemma game. Our work therefore provides a theoretical framework for understanding the evolutionary stable state in the gaming populations with static structures. PMID:25169150

  8. Congestion schemes and Nash equilibrium in complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almendral, Juan A.; López, Luis; Cholvi, Vicent; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2005-09-01

    Whenever a common resource is scarce, a set of rules are needed to share it in a fairly way. However, most control schemes assume that users will behave in a cooperative way, without taking care of guaranteeing that they will not act in a selfish manner. Then, a fundamental issue is to evaluate the impact of cheating. From the point of view of game theory, a Nash equilibrium implies that nobody can take advantage by unilaterally deviating from this stable state, even in the presence of selfish users. In this paper we prove that any efficient Nash equilibrium strongly depends on the number of users, if the control scheme policy does not record their previous behavior. Since this is a common pattern in real situations, this implies that the system would be always out of equilibrium. Consequently, this result proves that, in practice, oblivious control schemes must be improved to cope with selfish users.

  9. How Do Doctors Diagnose NAFLD and NASH?

    MedlinePlus

    ... NAFLD and NASH, such as overweight or obesity insulin resistance high levels of triglycerides or abnormal levels of ... NASH, such as an enlarged liver signs of insulin resistance such as darkened skin patches over your knuckles, ...

  10. The Hopeful Traveler Jay Bryan Nash.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jessup, Harvey M., Comp.

    This book is one of a series of publications preserving the best writing and speeches of outstanding leaders of the American Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation and Dance. Jay Bryan Nash was one of the founders of the Alliance. The speeches and essays by Nash in this collection are, for the most part, appearing in published form…

  11. NARSTO SOS99NASH WIND PROFILER DATA

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2018-04-16

    NARSTO SOS99NASH WIND PROFILER DATA Project Title:  NARSTO ... Platform:  Ground Station Instrument:  Wind Profiler Location:  Nashville, Tennessee Spatial ... Data Guide Documents:  SOS99Nash Wind Profiler Guide Related Data:  Southern Oxidants ...

  12. Jay B. Nash.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jable, J. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    Jay B. Nash's accomplishments and professional service have long been recognized by physical educators. This article examines the major forces and events that made him one of the most important leaders in American physical education. (MT)

  13. Factors predicting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

    PubMed

    Tasneem, Abbas Ali; Luck, Nasir Hassan; Majid, Zain

    2018-04-01

    Introduction To determine the factors predicting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methodology All patients aged >18 years and having a fatty liver on abdominal ultrasound (US), presenting from January 2011 to January 2017, were included. A liver biopsy was performed on all the patients. Results Of 96 patients undergoing liver biopsy for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 76 (79.2%) were men. On liver US, diffuse fatty liver (DFL) was noted in 68 (70.8%) patients. Liver biopsy showed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in 78 (81.3%) patients. Factors associated with NASH were male gender, body mass index (BMI) > 27 kg/m 2 , DFL and raised alanine aminotransferase (ALT). A GULAB score (based on gender, US liver findings, lipid (fasting) levels, ALT level and BMI) of ≥5 predicted NASH with 82.05% sensitivity. Factors associated with advanced fibrosis in NAFLD were age >40 years, diabetes mellitus, AST/ALT ratio > 1 and raised GGT. Conclusion NASH is common in patients with male gender, high BMI, DFL on liver US, raised ALT and GULAB score ≥5.

  14. Phosphorus component in AnnAGNPS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, Y.; Bingner, R.L.; Theurer, F.D.; Rebich, R.A.; Moore, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    The USDA Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution model (AnnAGNPS) has been developed to aid in evaluation of watershed response to agricultural management practices. Previous studies have demonstrated the capability of the model to simulate runoff and sediment, but not phosphorus (P). The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS on P simulation using comparisons with measurements from the Deep Hollow watershed of the Mississippi Delta Management Systems Evaluation Area (MDMSEA) project. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify input parameters whose impact is the greatest on P yields. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the most sensitive variables of those selected are initial soil P contents, P application rate, and plant P uptake. AnnAGNPS simulations of dissolved P yield do not agree well with observed dissolved P yield (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.34, R2 of 0.51, and slope of 0.24); however, AnnAGNPS simulations of total P yield agree well with observed total P yield (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.85, R2 of 0.88, and slope of 0.83). The difference in dissolved P yield may be attributed to limitations in model simulation of P processes. Uncertainties in input parameter selections also affect the model's performance.

  15. Pre-Collegiate Teachers and Gary Nash

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sesso, Gloria

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the author recalls the time she met Gary Nash at UCLA on July 13, 1992, when they began the work of creating the National Standards in History. Professor Nash was the leader in the development of the United States History Standards. In creating the Standards, they were to focus on Historical Thinking. They needed to organize the…

  16. Pathophysiology of NASH: perspectives for a targeted treatment

    PubMed Central

    Marra, Fabio; Lotersztajn, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Non alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the more severe form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. In NASH, fatty liver, hepatic inflammation, hepatocyte injury and fibrogenesis are associated, and thi condition may eventually lead to cirrhosis. Current treatment of NASH relies on the reduction of body weight and increase in physical activity, but there is no pharmacologic treatment approved as yet. Emerging data indicate that NASH progression results from parallel events originating from the liver as well as from the adipose tissue, the gut and the gastrointestinal tract. Thus, dysfunction of the adipose tissue through enhanced flow of free fatty acids and release of adipocytokines, and alterations in the gut microbiome generate proinflammatory signals that underly NASH progression. Additional ‘extrahepatic hits’ include dietary factors and gastrointestinal hormones. Within the liver, hepatocyte apoptosis, ER stress and oxidative stress are key contributors to hepatocellular injury. In addition, lipotoxic mediators and danger signals activate Kupffer cells which initiate and perpetuate the inflammatory response by releasing inflammatory mediators that contribute to inflammatory cell recruitment and development of fibrosis. Inflammatory and fibrogenic mediators include chemokines, the cannabinoid system, the inflammasome and activation of pattern-recognition receptors. Here we review the major mechanisms leading to appearance and progression of NASH, focusing on both extrahepatic signals and local inflammatory mechanisms, in an effort to identify the most promising molecular targets for the treatment of this condition. PMID:23394092

  17. Nash equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in semifinalists' dilemma.

    PubMed

    Baek, Seung Ki; Son, Seung-Woo; Jeong, Hyeong-Chai

    2015-04-01

    We consider a tournament among four equally strong semifinalists. The players have to decide how much stamina to use in the semifinals, provided that the rest is available in the final and the third-place playoff. We investigate optimal strategies for allocating stamina to the successive matches when players' prizes (payoffs) are given according to the tournament results. From the basic assumption that the probability to win a match follows a nondecreasing function of stamina difference, we present symmetric Nash equilibria for general payoff structures. We find three different phases of the Nash equilibria in the payoff space. First, when the champion wins a much bigger payoff than the others, any pure strategy can constitute a Nash equilibrium as long as all four players adopt it in common. Second, when the first two places are much more valuable than the other two, the only Nash equilibrium is such that everyone uses a pure strategy investing all stamina in the semifinal. Third, when the payoff for last place is much smaller than the others, a Nash equilibrium is formed when every player adopts a mixed strategy of using all or none of its stamina in the semifinals. In a limiting case that only last place pays the penalty, this mixed-strategy profile can be proved to be a unique symmetric Nash equilibrium, at least when the winning probability follows a Heaviside step function. Moreover, by using this Heaviside step function, we study the tournament by using evolutionary replicator dynamics to obtain analytic solutions, which reproduces the corresponding Nash equilibria on the population level and gives information on dynamic aspects.

  18. Nash equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in semifinalists' dilemma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, Seung Ki; Son, Seung-Woo; Jeong, Hyeong-Chai

    2015-04-01

    We consider a tournament among four equally strong semifinalists. The players have to decide how much stamina to use in the semifinals, provided that the rest is available in the final and the third-place playoff. We investigate optimal strategies for allocating stamina to the successive matches when players' prizes (payoffs) are given according to the tournament results. From the basic assumption that the probability to win a match follows a nondecreasing function of stamina difference, we present symmetric Nash equilibria for general payoff structures. We find three different phases of the Nash equilibria in the payoff space. First, when the champion wins a much bigger payoff than the others, any pure strategy can constitute a Nash equilibrium as long as all four players adopt it in common. Second, when the first two places are much more valuable than the other two, the only Nash equilibrium is such that everyone uses a pure strategy investing all stamina in the semifinal. Third, when the payoff for last place is much smaller than the others, a Nash equilibrium is formed when every player adopts a mixed strategy of using all or none of its stamina in the semifinals. In a limiting case that only last place pays the penalty, this mixed-strategy profile can be proved to be a unique symmetric Nash equilibrium, at least when the winning probability follows a Heaviside step function. Moreover, by using this Heaviside step function, we study the tournament by using evolutionary replicator dynamics to obtain analytic solutions, which reproduces the corresponding Nash equilibria on the population level and gives information on dynamic aspects.

  19. An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, Mumtaz; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Downs, Nathan J.; Maraseni, Tek

    2018-07-01

    Forecasting drought by means of the World Meteorological Organization-approved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is considered to be a fundamental task to support socio-economic initiatives and effectively mitigating the climate-risk. This study aims to develop a robust drought modelling strategy to forecast multi-scalar SPI in drought-rich regions of Pakistan where statistically significant lagged combinations of antecedent SPI are used to forecast future SPI. With ensemble-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System ('ensemble-ANFIS') executed via a 10-fold cross-validation procedure, a model is constructed by randomly partitioned input-target data. Resulting in 10-member ensemble-ANFIS outputs, judged by mean square error and correlation coefficient in the training period, the optimal forecasts are attained by the averaged simulations, and the model is benchmarked with M5 Model Tree and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). The results show the proposed ensemble-ANFIS model's preciseness was notably better (in terms of the root mean square and mean absolute error including the Willmott's, Nash-Sutcliffe and Legates McCabe's index) for the 6- and 12- month compared to the 3-month forecasts as verified by the largest error proportions that registered in smallest error band. Applying 10-member simulations, ensemble-ANFIS model was validated for its ability to forecast severity (S), duration (D) and intensity (I) of drought (including the error bound). This enabled uncertainty between multi-models to be rationalized more efficiently, leading to a reduction in forecast error caused by stochasticity in drought behaviours. Through cross-validations at diverse sites, a geographic signature in modelled uncertainties was also calculated. Considering the superiority of ensemble-ANFIS approach and its ability to generate uncertainty-based information, the study advocates the versatility of a multi-model approach for drought-risk forecasting and its prime importance

  20. Nash equilibrium strategy in the deregulated power industry and comparing its lost welfare with Iran wholesale electricity market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mousavi, Seyed Hosein; Nazemi, Ali; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

    2016-09-01

    With the increasing use of different types of auctions in market designing, modeling of participants' behaviors to evaluate the market structure is one of the main discussions in the studies related to the deregulated power industries. In this article, we apply an approach of the optimal bidding behavior to the Iran wholesale electricity market as a restructured electric power industry and model how the participants of the market bid in the spot electricity market. The problem is formulated analytically using the Nash equilibrium concept composed of large numbers of players having discrete and very large strategy spaces. Then, we compute and draw supply curve of the competitive market in which all generators' proposed prices are equal to their marginal costs and supply curve of the real market in which the pricing mechanism is pay-as-bid. We finally calculate the lost welfare or inefficiency of the Nash equilibrium and the real market by comparing their supply curves with the competitive curve. We examine 3 cases on November 24 (2 cases) and July 24 (1 case), 2012. It is observed that in the Nash equilibrium on November 24 and demand of 23,487 MW, there are 212 allowed plants for the first case (plants are allowed to choose any quantity of generation except one of them that should be equal to maximum Power) and the economic efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 2.77 times as much as the real market. In addition, there are 184 allowed plants for the second case (plants should offer their maximum power with different prices) and the efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 3.6 times as much as the real market. On July 24 and demand of 42,421 MW, all 370 plants should generate maximum energy due to the high electricity demand that the economic efficiency or social welfare of the Nash equilibrium is about 2 times as much as the real market.

  1. Accuracy of topographic index models at identifying ephemeral gully trajectories on agricultural fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheshukov, Aleksey Y.; Sekaluvu, Lawrence; Hutchinson, Stacy L.

    2018-04-01

    Topographic index (TI) models have been widely used to predict trajectories and initiation points of ephemeral gullies (EGs) in agricultural landscapes. Prediction of EGs strongly relies on the selected value of critical TI threshold, and the accuracy depends on topographic features, agricultural management, and datasets of observed EGs. This study statistically evaluated the predictions by TI models in two paired watersheds in Central Kansas that had different levels of structural disturbances due to implemented conservation practices. Four TI models with sole dependency on topographic factors of slope, contributing area, and planform curvature were used in this study. The observed EGs were obtained by field reconnaissance and through the process of hydrological reconditioning of digital elevation models (DEMs). The Kernel Density Estimation analysis was used to evaluate TI distribution within a 10-m buffer of the observed EG trajectories. The EG occurrence within catchments was analyzed using kappa statistics of the error matrix approach, while the lengths of predicted EGs were compared with the observed dataset using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) statistics. The TI frequency analysis produced bi-modal distribution of topographic indexes with the pixels within the EG trajectory having a higher peak. The graphs of kappa and NSE versus critical TI threshold showed similar profile for all four TI models and both watersheds with the maximum value representing the best comparison with the observed data. The Compound Topographic Index (CTI) model presented the overall best accuracy with NSE of 0.55 and kappa of 0.32. The statistics for the disturbed watershed showed higher best critical TI threshold values than for the undisturbed watershed. Structural conservation practices implemented in the disturbed watershed reduced ephemeral channels in headwater catchments, thus producing less variability in catchments with EGs. The variation in critical thresholds for all

  2. Near-Nash targeting strategies for heterogeneous teams of autonomous combat vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galati, David G.; Simaan, Marwan A.

    2008-04-01

    Military strategists are currently seeking methodologies to control large numbers of autonomous assets. Automated planners based upon the Nash equilibrium concept in non-zero sum games are one option. Because such planners inherently consider possible adversarial actions, assets are able to adapt to, and to some extent predict, potential enemy actions. However, these planners must function properly both in cases in which a pure Nash strategy does not exist and in scenarios possessing multiple Nash equilibria. Another issue that needs to be overcome is the scalability of the Nash equilibrium. That is, as the dimensionality of the problem increases, the Nash strategies become unfeasible to compute using traditional methodologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of near-Nash strategies as a mechanism to overcome these difficulties. We then illustrate this concept by deriving the near-Nash strategies and using these strategies as the basis for an intelligent battle plan for heterogeneous teams of autonomous combat air vehicles in the Multi-Team Dynamic Weapon Target Assignment model.

  3. Quantum Nash Equilibria and Quantum Computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fellman, Philip Vos; Post, Jonathan Vos

    In 2004, At the Fifth International Conference on Complex Systems, we drew attention to some remarkable findings by researchers at the Santa Fe Institute (Sato, Farmer and Akiyama, 2001) about hitherto unsuspected complexity in the Nash Equilibrium. As we progressed from these findings about heteroclinic Hamiltonians and chaotic transients hidden within the learning patterns of the simple rock-paper-scissors game to some related findings on the theory of quantum computing, one of the arguments we put forward was just as in the late 1990's a number of new Nash equilibria were discovered in simple bi-matrix games (Shubik and Quint, 1996; Von Stengel, 1997, 2000; and McLennan and Park, 1999) we would begin to see new Nash equilibria discovered as the result of quantum computation. While actual quantum computers remain rather primitive (Toibman, 2004), and the theory of quantum computation seems to be advancing perhaps a bit more slowly than originally expected, there have, nonetheless, been a number of advances in computation and some more radical advances in an allied field, quantum game theory (Huberman and Hogg, 2004) which are quite significant. In the course of this paper we will review a few of these discoveries and illustrate some of the characteristics of these new "Quantum Nash Equilibria". The full text of this research can be found at http://necsi.org/events/iccs6/viewpaper.php?id-234

  4. Testing the Wisconsin Phosphorus Index with year-round, field-scale runoff monitoring.

    PubMed

    Good, Laura W; Vadas, Peter; Panuska, John C; Bonilla, Carlos A; Jokela, William E

    2012-01-01

    The Wisconsin Phosphorus Index (WPI) is one of several P indices in the United States that use equations to describe actual P loss processes. Although for nutrient management planning the WPI is reported as a dimensionless whole number, it is calculated as average annual dissolved P (DP) and particulate P (PP) mass delivered per unit area. The WPI calculations use soil P concentration, applied manure and fertilizer P, and estimates of average annual erosion and average annual runoff. We compared WPI estimated P losses to annual P loads measured in surface runoff from 86 field-years on crop fields and pastures. As the erosion and runoff generated by the weather in the monitoring years varied substantially from the average annual estimates used in the WPI, the WPI and measured loads were not well correlated. However, when measured runoff and erosion were used in the WPI field loss calculations, the WPI accurately estimated annual total P loads with a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) of 0.87. The DP loss estimates were not as close to measured values (NSE = 0.40) as the PP loss estimates (NSE = 0.89). Some errors in estimating DP losses may be unavoidable due to uncertainties in estimating on-farm manure P application rates. The WPI is sensitive to field management that affects its erosion and runoff estimates. Provided that the WPI methods for estimating average annual erosion and runoff are accurately reflecting the effects of management, the WPI is an accurate field-level assessment tool for managing runoff P losses. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Quantum gambling based on Nash-equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Pei; Zhou, Xiao-Qi; Wang, Yun-Long; Liu, Bi-Heng; Shadbolt, Pete; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Gao, Hong; Li, Fu-Li; O'Brien, Jeremy L.

    2017-06-01

    The problem of establishing a fair bet between spatially separated gambler and casino can only be solved in the classical regime by relying on a trusted third party. By combining Nash-equilibrium theory with quantum game theory, we show that a secure, remote, two-party game can be played using a quantum gambling machine which has no classical counterpart. Specifically, by modifying the Nash-equilibrium point we can construct games with arbitrary amount of bias, including a game that is demonstrably fair to both parties. We also report a proof-of-principle experimental demonstration using linear optics.

  6. Assessment of Spatial Transferability of Process-Based Hydrological Model Parameters in Two Neighboring Catchments in the Himalayan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepal, S.

    2016-12-01

    The spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process-oriented distributed J2000 hydrological model was investigated in two glaciated sub-catchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The basins had a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986-1991) and validated (1992-1997) in the Dudh Koshi sub-catchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001-2009). A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was carried out for both sub-catchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both sub-catchments, including baseflow and medium range flows (rising and recession limbs). The efficiency results according to both Nash-Sutcliffe and the coefficient of determination was above 0.84 in both cases. The sensitivity analysis showed that the same parameter was most sensitive for Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) and Log Nash-Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies in both catchments. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderate and low sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) result suggest that most of the time the observed runoff is within the parameter uncertainty range, although occasionally the values lie outside the uncertainty range, especially during flood peaks and more in the Tamor. This may be due to the limited input data resulting from the small number of precipitation stations and lack of representative stations in high-altitude areas, as well as to model structural uncertainty. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighboring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the

  7. Development of a novel diagnostic algorithm to predict NASH in HCV-positive patients.

    PubMed

    Gallotta, Andrea; Paneghetti, Laura; Mrázová, Viera; Bednárová, Adriana; Kružlicová, Dáša; Frecer, Vladimir; Miertus, Stanislav; Biasiolo, Alessandra; Martini, Andrea; Pontisso, Patrizia; Fassina, Giorgio

    2018-05-01

    Non-alcoholic steato-hepatitis (NASH) is a severe disease characterised by liver inflammation and progressive hepatic fibrosis, which may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Clinical evidence suggests that in hepatitis C virus patients steatosis and NASH are associated with faster fibrosis progression and hepatocellular carcinoma. A safe and reliable non-invasive diagnostic method to detect NASH at its early stages is still needed to prevent progression of the disease. We prospectively enrolled 91 hepatitis C virus-positive patients with histologically proven chronic liver disease: 77 patients were included in our study; of these, 10 had NASH. For each patient, various clinical and serological variables were collected. Different algorithms combining squamous cell carcinoma antigen-immunoglobulin-M (SCCA-IgM) levels with other common clinical data were created to provide the probability of having NASH. Our analysis revealed a statistically significant correlation between the histological presence of NASH and SCCA-IgM, insulin, homeostasis model assessment, haemoglobin, high-density lipoprotein and ferritin levels, and smoke. Compared to the use of a single marker, algorithms that combined four, six or seven variables identified NASH with higher accuracy. The best diagnostic performance was obtained with the logistic regression combination, which included all seven variables correlated with NASH. The combination of SCCA-IgM with common clinical data shows promising diagnostic performance for the detection of NASH in hepatitis C virus patients.

  8. Ability of Cytokeratin-18 Fragments and FIB-4 Index to Diagnose Overall and Mild Fibrosis Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in Japanese Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Natsuko; Kumada, Takashi; Toyoda, Hidenori; Tada, Toshifumi; Ito, Takanori; Kage, Masayoshi; Okanoue, Takeshi; Kudo, Masatoshi

    2017-01-01

    Several laboratory markers used in lieu of liver biopsy are reportedly useful in the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In the present study, we investigated the diagnostic impact of various non-invasive markers for predicting NASH. A total of 229 nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients who underwent liver biopsy were enrolled for the study. The diagnostic ability of various markers to diagnose NASH from NAFLD was investigated. A total of 140 patients were histologically diagnosed with NASH. Of these, 104 had degree 0-2 fibrosis (F0-2), and 36 had degree 3-4 fibrosis (F3-4). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified hyaluronic acid (HA) (OR 1.014; 95% CI 1.002-1.026; p = 0.024), FIB-4 index (OR 2.097; 95% CI 1.177-3.735; p = 0.012), and cytokeratin-18 fragments (CK-18F) (OR 1.002; 95% CI 1.001-1.002; p < 0.001) as factors independently associated with the diagnosis of NASH. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of HA, FIB-4 index, and CK-18F for the diagnosis of NASH were 0.77, 0.76, and 0.72, respectively. In addition, FIB-4 index (OR 1.907; 95% CI 1.063-3.419; p = 0.03) and CK-18F (OR 1.002; 95% CI 1.001-1.002; p < 0.001) could differentiate between NASH and NAFL, even when NASH patients with advanced fibrosis (F3-4) were excluded. AUROCs of FIB-4 index and CK-18F for the diagnosis of NASH with mild fibrosis (F0-2) from NAFLD were 0.70 and 0.70, respectively. FIB-4 index and CK-18F have good diagnostic abilities not only for NASH overall, but also for NASH with mild fibrosis. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Simulation of agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan by using SWAT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Linan; Zuo, Jiane; Liu, Fenglin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Cao, Qiguang

    2018-02-01

    This paper evaluated the applicability of using SWAT to access agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan area. In order to build the model, DEM, soil sort and land use map, climate monitoring data were collected as basic database. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the SWAT was carried out using streamflow, suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen records from 2009 to 2011. Errors, coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were considered to evaluate the applicability. The coefficient of determination were 0.96, 0.66, 0.55 and 0.66 for streamflow, SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.93, 0.5, 0.52 and 0.63, respectively. The results all meet the requirements. It suggested that the SWAT model can simulate the study area.

  10. A novel diagnostic biomarker panel for obesity-related nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

    PubMed

    Younossi, Zobair M; Jarrar, Mohammed; Nugent, Clare; Randhawa, Manpreet; Afendy, Mariam; Stepanova, Maria; Rafiq, Nila; Goodman, Zachary; Chandhoke, Vikas; Baranova, Ancha

    2008-11-01

    Within the spectrum of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), only patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) show convincing evidence for progression. To date, liver biopsy remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of NASH; however, liver biopsy is expensive and associated with a small risk, emphasizing the urgent need for noninvasive diagnostic biomarkers. Recent findings suggest a role for apoptosis and adipocytokines in the pathogenesis of NASH. The aim of this study was to develop a noninvasive diagnostic biomarker for NASH. The study included 101 patients with liver biopsies who were tested with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based assays. Of these, 69 were included in the biomarker development set and 32 were included in the biomarker validation set. Clinical data and serum samples were collected at the time of biopsy. Fasting serum samples were assayed for adiponectin, resistin, insulin, glucose, TNF-alpha, IL-6, IL-8, cytokeratin CK-18 (M65 antigen), and caspase-cleaved CK-18 (M30 antigen). Data analysis revealed that the levels of M30 antigen (cleaved CK-18) predicted histological NASH with 70% sensitivity and 83.7% specificity and area under the curve (AUC) = 0.711, p < 10(-4), whereas the predictive value of the levels of intact CK-18 (M65) was higher (63.6% sensitivity and 89.4% specificity and AUC = 0.814, p < 10(-4)). Histological NASH could be predicted by a combination of Cleaved CK-18, a product of the subtraction of Cleaved CK-18 level from intact CK-18 level, serum adiponectin, and serum resistin with a sensitivity of 95.45% sensitivity, specificity of 70.21%, and AUC of 0.908 (p < 10(-4)). Blinded validation of this model confirmed its reliability for separating NASH from simple steatosis. Four ELISA-based tests were combined to form a simple diagnostic biomarker for NASH.

  11. The Nash Equilibrium Revisited: Chaos and Complexity Hidden in Simplicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fellman, Philip V.

    The Nash Equilibrium is a much discussed, deceptively complex, method for the analysis of non-cooperative games (McLennan and Berg, 2005). If one reads many of the commonly available definitions the description of the Nash Equilibrium is deceptively simple in appearance. Modern research has discovered a number of new and important complex properties of the Nash Equilibrium, some of which remain as contemporary conundrums of extraordinary difficulty and complexity (Quint and Shubik, 1997). Among the recently discovered features which the Nash Equilibrium exhibits under various conditions are heteroclinic Hamiltonian dynamics, a very complex asymptotic structure in the context of two-player bi-matrix games and a number of computationally complex or computationally intractable features in other settings (Sato, Akiyama and Farmer, 2002). This paper reviews those findings and then suggests how they may inform various market prediction strategies.

  12. Navigable networks as Nash equilibria of navigation games.

    PubMed

    Gulyás, András; Bíró, József J; Kőrösi, Attila; Rétvári, Gábor; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2015-07-03

    Common sense suggests that networks are not random mazes of purposeless connections, but that these connections are organized so that networks can perform their functions well. One function common to many networks is targeted transport or navigation. Here, using game theory, we show that minimalistic networks designed to maximize the navigation efficiency at minimal cost share basic structural properties with real networks. These idealistic networks are Nash equilibria of a network construction game whose purpose is to find an optimal trade-off between the network cost and navigability. We show that these skeletons are present in the Internet, metabolic, English word, US airport, Hungarian road networks, and in a structural network of the human brain. The knowledge of these skeletons allows one to identify the minimal number of edges, by altering which one can efficiently improve or paralyse navigation in the network.

  13. Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

    2018-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

  14. Heat transfer analysis of cylindrical anaerobic reactors with different sizes: a heat transfer model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jiawei; Zhou, Xingqiu; Wu, Jiangdong; Gao, Wen; Qian, Xu

    2017-10-01

    The temperature is the essential factor that influences the efficiency of anaerobic reactors. During the operation of the anaerobic reactor, the fluctuations of ambient temperature can cause a change in the internal temperature of the reactor. Therefore, insulation and heating measures are often used to maintain anaerobic reactor's internal temperature. In this paper, a simplified heat transfer model was developed to study heat transfer between cylindrical anaerobic reactors and their surroundings. Three cylindrical reactors of different sizes were studied, and the internal relations between ambient temperature, thickness of insulation, and temperature fluctuations of the reactors were obtained at different reactor sizes. The model was calibrated by a sensitivity analysis, and the calibrated model was well able to predict reactor temperature. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was used to assess the predictive power of heat transfer models. The Nash coefficients of the three reactors were 0.76, 0.60, and 0.45, respectively. The model can provide reference for the thermal insulation design of cylindrical anaerobic reactors.

  15. Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): Risk Factors in Morbidly Obese Patients

    PubMed Central

    Losekann, Alexandre; Weston, Antonio C.; de Mattos, Angelo A.; Tovo, Cristiane V.; de Carli, Luis A.; Espindola, Marilia B.; Pioner, Sergio R.; Coral, Gabriela P.

    2015-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and risk factors for hepatic fibrosis in morbidly obese patients submitted to bariatric surgery. This retrospective study recruited all patients submitted to bariatric surgery from January 2007 to December 2012 at a reference attendance center of Southern Brazil. Clinical and biochemical data were studied as a function of the histological findings of liver biopsies done during the surgery. Steatosis was present in 226 (90.4%) and NASH in 176 (70.4%) cases. The diagnosis of cirrhosis was established in four cases (1.6%) and fibrosis in 108 (43.2%). Risk factors associated with NASH at multivariate analysis were alanine aminotransferase (ALT) >1.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN); glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL and triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dL. All patients with ALT ≥1.5 times the ULN had NASH. When the presence of fibrosis was analyzed, ALT > 1.5 times the ULN and triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dL were risk factors, furthermore, there was an increase of 1% in the prevalence of fibrosis for each year of age increase. Not only steatosis, but NASH is a frequent finding in MO patients. In the present study, ALT ≥ 1.5 times the ULN identifies all patients with NASH, this finding needs to be further validated in other studies. Moreover, the presence of fibrosis was associated with ALT, triglycerides and age, identifying a subset of patients with more severe disease. PMID:26512661

  16. Controversies in the Diagnosis and Management of NAFLD and NASH.

    PubMed

    Rinella, Mary E; Loomba, Rohit; Caldwell, Stephen H; Kowdley, Kris; Charlton, Michael; Tetri, Brent; Harrison, Stephen A

    2014-04-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is recognized as the most common cause of chronic liver disease in the United States. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) occurs in a subset of patients with NAFLD and is characterized by the presence of hepa-tocellular injury, which is progressive in a substantial proportion of cases and can lead to cirrhosis and all of its complications. Although the diagnosis of NAFLD can be made through imaging studies or liver biopsy, the diagnosis of NASH still requires histologic confirmation. Liver biopsy should be performed in the presence of risk factors for advanced disease. Measures aimed at promoting weight loss, a healthier lifestyle, and optimization of metabolic risk factors remain the cornerstone of management of NAFLD. Therapeutic agents that are presently considered the most promising in NAFLD are effective in less than 50% of patients. Among patients with biopsy-proven NASH, treatment with pharmacologic agents should be considered; however, the role of specific agents in NASH still needs further study. Despite a wealth of research over the past 15 years, many controversies remain with respect to the diagnosis and management of NAFLD and NASH as well as the influence of alcohol on liver disease progression in these patients.

  17. Navigable networks as Nash equilibria of navigation games

    PubMed Central

    Gulyás, András; Bíró, József J.; Kőrösi, Attila; Rétvári, Gábor; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2015-01-01

    Common sense suggests that networks are not random mazes of purposeless connections, but that these connections are organized so that networks can perform their functions well. One function common to many networks is targeted transport or navigation. Here, using game theory, we show that minimalistic networks designed to maximize the navigation efficiency at minimal cost share basic structural properties with real networks. These idealistic networks are Nash equilibria of a network construction game whose purpose is to find an optimal trade-off between the network cost and navigability. We show that these skeletons are present in the Internet, metabolic, English word, US airport, Hungarian road networks, and in a structural network of the human brain. The knowledge of these skeletons allows one to identify the minimal number of edges, by altering which one can efficiently improve or paralyse navigation in the network. PMID:26138277

  18. Nash Receives 2004 David Perlman Award for Excellence in Science Writing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmer-DeWitt, Philip; Nash, J. Madeleine

    2004-07-01

    J. Madeleine Nash received the David Perlman Award for Excellence in Science Writing at the AGU Joint Assembly Honors Ceremony, which was held on 19 May 2004, in Montreal, Canada. Nash was honored for ``Fireproofing the Forests,'' an article that appeared in the 18 August 2003 edition of Time Magazine. ``It is an honor to present AGU's 2004 David Perlman Award to Madeleine Nash, a senior contributor to Time Magazine and, if I may say so, one of the great science writers of her generation.''

  19. A novel role of astrocyte elevated gene-1 (AEG-1) in regulating nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Jyoti; Robertson, Chadia L; Ebeid, Kareem; Dozmorov, Mikhail; Rajasekaran, Devaraja; Mendoza, Rachel; Siddiq, Ayesha; Akiel, Maaged A; Jariwala, Nidhi; Shen, Xue-Ning; Windle, Jolene J; Subler, Mark A; Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Giashuddin, Shah; Ghosh, Shobha; Lai, Zhao; Chen, Yidong; Fisher, Paul B; Salem, Aliasger K; Sanyal, Arun J; Sarkar, Devanand

    2017-08-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the most prevalent cause of chronic liver disease in the Western world. However, an optimum therapy for NASH is yet to be established, mandating more in-depth investigation into the molecular pathogenesis of NASH to identify novel regulatory molecules and develop targeted therapies. Here, we unravel a unique function of astrocyte elevated gene-1(AEG-1)/metadherin in NASH using a transgenic mouse with hepatocyte-specific overexpression of AEG-1 (Alb/AEG-1) and a conditional hepatocyte-specific AEG-1 knockout mouse (AEG-1 ΔHEP ). Alb/AEG-1 mice developed spontaneous NASH whereas AEG-1 ΔHEP mice were protected from high-fat diet (HFD)-induced NASH. Intriguingly, AEG-1 overexpression was observed in livers of NASH patients and wild-type (WT) mice that developed steatosis upon feeding HFD. In-depth molecular analysis unraveled that inhibition of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha activity resulting in decreased fatty acid β-oxidation, augmentation of translation of fatty acid synthase resulting in de novo lipogenesis, and increased nuclear factor kappa B-mediated inflammation act in concert to mediate AEG-1-induced NASH. Therapeutically, hepatocyte-specific nanoparticle-delivered AEG-1 small interfering RNA provided marked protection from HFD-induced NASH in WT mice. AEG-1 might be a key molecule regulating initiation and progression of NASH. AEG-1 inhibitory strategies might be developed as a potential therapeutic intervention in NASH patients. (Hepatology 2017;66:466-480). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  20. Uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in vaccination games.

    PubMed

    Bai, Fan

    2016-12-01

    One crucial condition for the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium set in vaccination games is that the attack ratio monotonically decreases as the vaccine coverage level increasing. We consider several deterministic vaccination models in homogeneous mixing population and in heterogeneous mixing population. Based on the final size relations obtained from the deterministic epidemic models, we prove that the attack ratios can be expressed in terms of the vaccine coverage levels, and also prove that the attack ratios are decreasing functions of vaccine coverage levels. Some thresholds are presented, which depend on the vaccine efficacy. It is proved that for vaccination games in homogeneous mixing population, there is a unique Nash equilibrium for each game.

  1. Calibration of HEC-Ras hydrodynamic model using gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, Rui; Komma, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    The estimation of flood is essential for disaster alleviation. Hydrodynamic models are implemented to predict the occurrence and variance of flood in different scales. In practice, the calibration of hydrodynamic models aims to search the best possible parameters for the representation the natural flow resistance. Recent years have seen the calibration of hydrodynamic models being more actual and faster following the advance of earth observation products and computer based optimization techniques. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering River Analysis System (HEC-Ras) model was set up with high-resolution digital elevation model from Laser scanner for the river Inn in Tyrol, Austria. 10 largest flood events from 19 hourly discharge gauges and flood inundation maps were selected to calibrate the HEC-Ras model. Manning roughness values and lateral inflow factors as parameters were automatically optimized with the Shuffled complex with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). Different objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, the timing of peak, peak value and Root-mean-square deviation) were used in single or multiple way. It was found that the lateral inflow factor was the most sensitive parameter. SP-UCI algorithm could avoid the local optimal and achieve efficient and effective parameters in the calibration of HEC-Ras model using flood extension images. As results showed, calibration by means of gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps, together with objective function of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, was very robust to obtain more reliable flood simulation, and also to catch up with the peak value and the timing of peak.

  2. Comparison between two statistically based methods, and two physically based models developed to compute daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linhart, S. Mike; Nania, Jon F.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.; Sanders, Curtis L.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2013-01-01

    A variety of individuals from water resource managers to recreational users need streamflow information for planning and decisionmaking at locations where there are no streamgages. To address this problem, two statistically based methods, the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method and the Flow Anywhere method, were developed for statewide application and the two physically based models, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, were only developed for application for the Cedar River Basin. Observed and estimated streamflows for the two methods and models were compared for goodness of fit at 13 streamgages modeled in the Cedar River Basin by using the Nash-Sutcliffe and the percent-bias efficiency values. Based on median and mean Nash-Sutcliffe values for the 13 streamgages the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and Soil and Water Assessment Tool models appear to have performed similarly and better than Flow Duration Curve Transfer and Flow Anywhere methods. Based on median and mean percent bias values, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model appears to have generally overestimated daily mean streamflows, whereas the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System model and statistical methods appear to have underestimated daily mean streamflows. The Flow Duration Curve Transfer method produced the lowest median and mean percent bias values and appears to perform better than the other models.

  3. Mixed Nash equilibria in Eisert-Lewenstein-Wilkens (ELW) games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolonek-Lasoń, Katarzyna; Kosiński, Piotr

    2017-01-01

    The classification of all mixed Nash equilibria for the original ELW game is presented. It is based on the quaternionic form of the game proposed by Landsburg (Proc. Am. Math. Soc. 139 (2011), 4423; Rochester Working Paper No 524 (2006); Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (Wiley and Sons, New York, (2011)). This approach allows to reduce the problem of finding the Nash equilibria to relatively simple analysis of the extrema of certain quadratic forms.

  4. A Tribute to Gary Nash

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jason-Fives, Alli

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the author gives tribute to Gary Nash, a brilliant scholar, an award-winning professor, a prolific writer, a true humanitarian, and a revered historian. She honors him for his work with public school teachers. He has provided the educational support, encouragement, and motivation behind the importance of teaching history. Here,…

  5. Serum uric acid concentrations and fructose consumption are independently associated with NASH in children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Mosca, Antonella; Nobili, Valerio; De Vito, Rita; Crudele, Annalisa; Scorletti, Eleonora; Villani, Alberto; Alisi, Anna; Byrne, Christopher D

    2017-05-01

    Recent research has suggested that dietary fructose intake may increase serum uric acid (UA) concentrations. Both UA concentration and fructose consumption maybe also increase in NAFLD. It is not known whether dietary fructose consumption and UA concentration are independently associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Our aim was to investigate the factors associated with NASH in children and adolescents with proven NAFLD, and to test whether UA concentrations and fructose consumption are independently associated with NASH. Obese children with NAFLD were studied (n=271). NASH was diagnosed by a NAFLD activity score ⩾5 and the fatty liver inhibition of progression (FLIP) algorithm. Fructose consumption (g/day) was assessed by food frequency questionnaire, and UA (mg/dl) was measured in serum. Binary logistic regression with adjustment for covariates and potential confounders was undertaken to test factors independently associated with NASH. NASH occurred in 37.6% of patients. Hyperuricaemia (UA ⩾5.9mg/dl) was present in 47% of patients with NASH compared with 29.7% of non-NASH patients (p=0.003). Both UA concentration (OR=2.488, 95% CI: 1.87-2.83, p=0.004) and fructose consumption (OR=1.612, 95% CI 1.25-1.86, p=0.001) were independently associated with NASH, after adjustment for multiple (and all) measured confounders. Fructose consumption was independently associated with hyperuricaemia (OR=2.021, 95% CI: 1.66-2.78, p=0.01). These data were confirmed using the FLIP algorithm. Both dietary fructose consumption and serum UA concentrations are independently associated with NASH. Fructose consumption was the only factor independently associated with serum UA concentration. Currently, it is not known whether dietary fructose consumption and uric acid (UA) concentration are linked with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in children and adolescents. Our aim was to test whether UA concentrations and fructose consumption are independently associated with

  6. NASH is an Inflammatory Disorder: Pathogenic, Prognostic and Therapeutic Implications

    PubMed Central

    van Rooyen, Derrick; Gan, Lay; Chitturi, Shivrakumar

    2012-01-01

    While non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent (15% to 45%) in modern societies, only 10% to 25% of cases develop hepatic fibrosis leading to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease or hepatocellular carcinoma. Apart from pre-existing fibrosis, the strongest predictor of fibrotic progression in NAFLD is steatohepatitis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The critical features other than steatosis are hepatocellular degeneration (ballooning, Mallory hyaline) and mixed inflammatory cell infiltration. While much is understood about the relationship of steatosis to metabolic factors (over-nutrition, insulin resistance, hyperglycemia, metabolic syndrome, hypoadiponectinemia), less is known about inflammatory recruitment, despite its importance for the perpetuation of liver injury and fibrogenesis. In this review, we present evidence that liver inflammation has prognostic significance in NAFLD. We then consider the origins and components of liver inflammation in NASH. Hepatocytes injured by toxic lipid molecules (lipotoxicity) play a central role in the recruitment of innate immunity involving Toll-like receptors (TLRs), Kupffer cells (KCs), lymphocytes and neutrophils and possibly inflammasome. The key pro-inflammatory signaling pathways in NASH are nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). The downstream effectors include adhesion molecules, chemokines, cytokines and the activation of cell death pathways leading to apoptosis. The upstream activators of NF-κB and JNK are more contentious and may depend on the experimental model used. TLRs are strong contenders. It remains possible that inflammation in NASH originates outside the liver and in the gut microbiota that prime KC/TLR responses, inflamed adipose tissue and circulating inflammatory cells. We briefly review these mechanistic considerations and project their implications for the effective treatment of NASH. PMID:22570745

  7. Satellite based Global Flood Detection System - strengths and limitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Salamon, Peter; Thielen, Jutta; De Groeve, Tom; Zajac, Zuzanna

    2014-05-01

    One of the main problems for global hydrological models is that for many regions only very limited or no observational data for a model assessment is available. This problem could be overcome with filling the gaps using information derived from satellite observations. Thus, an evaluation of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) against observed discharge data was performed in order to test the use of this data in sparsely gauged river basins. The study was carried out at 398 locations near the main rivers and in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. After evaluating different methodologies for extracting the satellite signal, a temporal (4 days) and spatial (4 GFDS pixels) average was chosen to proceed with the analysis. For the 340 stations with a concurrent time series longer than seven years for both, the signal and the in situ observed discharge (obtained mainly from the Global Runoff Data Centre), a calibration based on monthly linear models was carried out. The validation was executed and several skill scores were calculated such as the R2, Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). It is important to highlight that, for this study, 230 stations globally had Nash-Sutcliffe efficient score higher than zero, indicating that for specific conditions the satellite signal as used in GFDS can fill the gaps where observations are not available. For example, several locations in African catchments have good performance as in the Niger, Volta and Zambezi for which Nash-Sutcliffe is greater than 0.75. It is known that a number of factors affect total upwelling microwave brightness from a mixed water and land surface measured by a single image pixel. Aiming to better understand how some features of the sites could affect the satellite signal and the correlation with in situ observations, apart from the dependency on the river geometry, a multivariate analysis was carried out between the skill scores (NSE and

  8. Index to Estimate the Efficiency of an Ophthalmic Practice.

    PubMed

    Chen, Andrew; Kim, Eun Ah; Aigner, Dennis J; Afifi, Abdelmonem; Caprioli, Joseph

    2015-08-01

    A metric of efficiency, a function of the ratio of quality to cost per patient, will allow the health care system to better measure the impact of specific reforms and compare the effectiveness of each. To develop and evaluate an efficiency index that estimates the performance of an ophthalmologist's practice as a function of cost, number of patients receiving care, and quality of care. Retrospective review of 36 ophthalmology subspecialty practices from October 2011 to September 2012 at a university-based eye institute. The efficiency index (E) was defined as a function of adjusted number of patients (N(a)), total practice adjusted costs (C(a)), and a preliminary measure of quality (Q). Constant b limits E between 0 and 1. Constant y modifies the influence of Q on E. Relative value units and geographic cost indices determined by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid for 2012 were used to calculate adjusted costs. The efficiency index is expressed as the following: E = b(N(a)/C(a))Q(y). Independent, masked auditors reviewed 20 random patient medical records for each practice and filled out 3 questionnaires to obtain a process-based quality measure. The adjusted number of patients, adjusted costs, quality, and efficiency index were calculated for 36 ophthalmology subspecialties. The median adjusted number of patients was 5516 (interquartile range, 3450-11,863), the median adjusted cost was 1.34 (interquartile range, 0.99-1.96), the median quality was 0.89 (interquartile range, 0.79-0.91), and the median value of the efficiency index was 0.26 (interquartile range, 0.08-0.42). The described efficiency index is a metric that provides a broad overview of performance for a variety of ophthalmology specialties as estimated by resources used and a preliminary measure of quality of care provided. The results of the efficiency index could be used in future investigations to determine its sensitivity to detect the impact of interventions on a practice such as training

  9. Gender difference in NASH susceptibility: Roles of hepatocyte Ikkβ and Sult1e1

    PubMed Central

    Matsushita, Noriko; Hassanein, Mohamed T.; Martinez-Clemente, Marcos; Lazaro, Raul; French, Samuel W.; Xie, Wen; Lai, Keane; Karin, Michael; Tsukamoto, Hidekazu

    2017-01-01

    Myeloid cell and hepatocyte IKKβ may mediate the genesis of obesity and insulin resistance in mice fed high fat diet. However, their gender-specific roles in the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are not known. Here we demonstrate myeloid IKKβ deficiency prevents Western diet-induced obesity and visceral adiposity in females but not in males, and attenuates hyperglycemia, global IR, and NASH in both genders. In contrast, all metabolic sequela including NASH are aggravated by hepatocyte IKKβ deficiency (IkbkbΔhep) in male but not female mice. Gene profiling identifies sulfotransferase family 1E (Sult1e1), which encodes a sulfotransferase E1 responsible for inactivation of estrogen, as a gene upregulated in NASH in both genders and most conspicuously in male IkbkbΔhep mice having worst NASH and lowest plasma estradiol levels. LXRα is enriched to LXRE on Sult1e1 promoter in male WT and IkbkbΔhep mice with NASH, and a Sult1e1 promoter activity is increased by LXRα and its ligand and augmented by expression of a S32A mutant of IκBα. These results demonstrate striking gender differences in regulation by IKKβ of high cholesterol saturated fat diet-induced metabolic changes including NASH and suggest hepatocyte IKKβ is protective in male due at least in part to its ability to repress LXR-induced Sult1e1. Our findings also raise a caution for systemic IKK inhibition for the treatment of NASH as it may exacerbate the disease in male patients. PMID:28797077

  10. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) after pancreaticoduodenectomy: association of pancreatic exocrine deficiency and infection.

    PubMed

    Murata, Yasuhiro; Mizuno, Shugo; Kato, Hiroyuki; Kishiwada, Masashi; Ohsawa, Ichiro; Hamada, Takashi; Usui, Masanobu; Sakurai, Hiroyuki; Tabata, Masami; Nishimura, Keisuke; Fukutome, Kazuo; Isaji, Shuji

    2011-08-01

    Previous clinical study has demonstrated that 30-40% of patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) developed hepatic steatosis. However, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a little-known complication after PD. Recently we encountered two patients with PD who later developed NASH diagnosed by liver biopsy. Case 1 was a 79-year-old woman who underwent PD for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). She had postoperative severe diarrhea due to pseudomembranous enterocolitis. Severe liver dysfunction was observed on the 31st postoperative day. Abdominal computed tomography (CT) on the 32nd day showed remarkably decreased hepatic CT value of 6 HU. Immediate liver biopsy revealed NASH (Brunt criteria: grade 2, stage 2). Case 2 was a 71-year-old woman who underwent PD for IPMN. Liver biopsy on 70th postoperative day, which was performed for assessment of moderate liver dysfunction and decreased hepatic CT value of 44 HU, demonstrated simple steatosis. In the 21st postoperative month, she developed severe urinary tract infection together with marked liver dysfunction. Immediate liver biopsy revealed NASH (Brunt criteria: grade 1, stage 1). For each patient, treatment of infection and high-dose pancreatic enzyme supplements improved liver dysfunction and liver steatosis. Clinical features of our cases seem to support the current leading hypothesis of the pathogenesis of NASH, i.e., the two-hit theory.

  11. Water extract of Vitis coignetiae Pulliat leaves attenuates oxidative stress and inflammation in progressive NASH rats.

    PubMed

    Pak, Wing; Takayama, Fusako; Hasegawa, Azusa; Mankura, Mitsumasa; Egashira, Toru; Ueki, Keiji; Nakamoto, Kazuo; Kawasaki, Hiromu; Mori, Akitane

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the therapeutic effects of the water extract of leaves of Vitis coignetiae Pulliat (VCPL) on nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with advanced fibrosis, as our previous study exhibited its preventive effect on NASH. The NASH animal model [PCT/JP2007/52477] was prepared by loading recurrent and intermittent hypoxemia stress to a rat with fatty liver, which resembled the condition occurring in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and fatty liver, who have a high incidence of NASH. Intermittent hypoxemia stress is regarded as a condition similar to warm ischemia followed by re-oxygenation, which induces oxidative stress (OS). The daily 100 or 300 mg/kg VCPL administrations were performed for 3 weeks perorally beginning at the time of detection of advanced liver fibrosis. The therapeutic efficacy of VCPL on NASH was demonstrated by the reduction of the leakage of hepato-biliary enzymes and the amelioration of liver fibrosis. The OS elevation in NASH rats was measured based on the derivation of reactive oxygen species from liver mitochondrial energy metabolism and on the decrease in plasma SOD-like activity. The aggravation of inflammatory responses was demonstrated by the neutrophil infiltration (elevated myeloperoxidase activity) and the progression of fibrosis in the livers of NASH rats. In addition, the NASH rats without VCPL treatment also exhibited activation of nuclear factor-κB, a key factor in the link between oxidative stress and inflammation. All of these changes were reduced dose-dependently by the VCPL administration. These findings indicate that VCPL may improve hepatic fibrosis or at least suppress the progression of NASH, by breaking the crosstalk between OS and inflammation.

  12. Enhanced free cholesterol, SREBP-2 and StAR expression in human NASH.

    PubMed

    Caballero, Francisco; Fernández, Anna; De Lacy, Antonio M; Fernández-Checa, Jose C; Caballería, Juan; García-Ruiz, Carmen

    2009-04-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) pathogenesis remains unknown. Due to the emerging role of free cholesterol (FC) in NAFLD, our aim was to examine the correlation between FC accumulation in patients with NAFLD and the expression of enzymes that regulate cholesterol homeostasis. Filipin staining, indicative of FC accumulation, and real-time PCR analyses were performed in 31 NAFLD patients and in seven controls. All NASH patients (n=14) and 4 out of 17 patients with steatosis exhibited filipin staining compared to controls (0 out of 7 subjects with normal liver histology and BMI). Sterol regulatory element-binding protein-2 (SREBP-2) mRNA levels were 7- and 3-fold higher in NASH and steatosis patients, respectively, compared to controls. Since hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA (HMG-CoA) reductase is the key enzyme in cholesterol synthesis and transcriptionally controlled by SREBP-2 we measured its mRNA levels, being 3- to 4-fold higher in NAFLD compared to controls, without any difference between NASH and steatosis patients. Fatty acid synthase (FAS) and SREBP-1c expression were not significantly induced in NAFLD, while ATP-binding cassette sub-family G member 1 (ABCG1), a transporter involved in cholesterol egress, and acyl-CoA-cholesterol acyltransferase mRNA levels were modestly increased (1.5- to 2.5-fold, p<0.05), regardless of fibrosis. Interestingly, mRNA levels of steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR), a mitochondrial-cholesterol transporting polypeptide, increased 7- and 15-fold in steatosis and NASH patients, respectively, compared to controls. FC increases in NASH and correlates with SREBP-2 induction. Moreover, StAR overexpression in NASH suggests that mitochondrial FC may be a player in disease progression and a novel target for intervention.

  13. Hepatic FTO expression is increased in NASH and its silencing attenuates palmitic acid-induced lipotoxicity.

    PubMed

    Lim, Andrea; Zhou, Jin; Sinha, Rohit A; Singh, Brijesh K; Ghosh, Sujoy; Lim, Kiat-Hon; Chow, Pierce Kah-Hoe; Woon, Esther C Y; Yen, Paul M

    2016-10-21

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is one of the most common causes of liver failure worldwide. It is characterized by excess fat accumulation, inflammation, and increased lipotoxicity in hepatocytes. Currently, there are limited treatment options for NASH due to lack of understanding of its molecular etiology. In the present study, we demonstrate that the expression of fat mass and obesity associated gene (FTO) is significantly increased in the livers of NASH patients and in a rodent model of NASH. Furthermore, using human hepatic cells, we show that genetic silencing of FTO protects against palmitate-induced oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, ER stress, and apoptosis in vitro. Taken together, our results show that FTO may have a deleterious role in hepatic cells during lipotoxic conditions, and strongly suggest that up-regulation of FTO may contribute to the increased liver damage in NASH. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Overexpression of the Vitronectin V10 Subunit in Patients with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis: Implications for Noninvasive Diagnosis of NASH.

    PubMed

    Del Ben, Maria; Overi, Diletta; Polimeni, Licia; Carpino, Guido; Labbadia, Giancarlo; Baratta, Francesco; Pastori, Daniele; Noce, Valeria; Gaudio, Eugenio; Angelico, Francesco; Mancone, Carmine

    2018-02-18

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the critical stage of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The persistence of necroinflammatory lesions and fibrogenesis in NASH is the leading cause of liver cirrhosis and, ultimately, hepatocellular carcinoma. To date, the histological examination of liver biopsies, albeit invasive, remains the means to distinguish NASH from simple steatosis (NAFL). Therefore, a noninvasive diagnosis by serum biomarkers is eagerly needed. Here, by a proteomic approach, we analysed the soluble low-molecular-weight protein fragments flushed out from the liver tissue of NAFL and NASH patients. On the basis of the assumption that steatohepatitis leads to the remodelling of the liver extracellular matrix (ECM), NASH-specific fragments were in silico analysed for their involvement in the ECM molecular composition. The 10 kDa C-terminal fragment of the ECM protein vitronectin (VTN) was then selected as a promising circulating biomarker in discriminating NASH. The analysis of sera of patients provided these major findings: the circulating VTN fragment (i) is overexpressed in NASH patients and positively correlates with the NASH activity score (NAS); (ii) originates from the disulfide bond reduction between the V10 and the V65 subunits. In conclusion, V10 determination in the serum could represent a reliable tool for the noninvasive discrimination of NASH from simple steatosis.

  15. Evolving Concepts in the Pathogenesis of NASH: Beyond Steatosis and Inflammation

    PubMed Central

    Peverill, William; Powell, Lawrie W.; Skoien, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is characterised by hepatic steatosis and inflammation and, in some patients, progressive fibrosis leading to cirrhosis. An understanding of the pathogenesis of NASH is still evolving but current evidence suggests multiple metabolic factors critically disrupt homeostasis and induce an inflammatory cascade and ensuing fibrosis. The mechanisms underlying these changes and the complex inter-cellular interactions that mediate fibrogenesis are yet to be fully elucidated. Lipotoxicity, in the setting of excess free fatty acids, obesity, and insulin resistance, appears to be the central driver of cellular injury via oxidative stress. Hepatocyte apoptosis and/or senescence contribute to activation of the inflammasome via a variety of intra- and inter-cellular signalling mechanisms leading to fibrosis. Current evidence suggests that periportal components, including the ductular reaction and expansion of the hepatic progenitor cell compartment, may be involved and that the Th17 response may mediate disease progression. This review aims to provide an overview of the pathogenesis of NASH and summarises the evidence pertaining to key mechanisms implicated in the transition from steatosis and inflammation to fibrosis. Currently there are limited treatments for NASH although an increasing understanding of its pathogenesis will likely improve the development and use of interventions in the future. PMID:24830559

  16. Sorafenib prevents liver fibrosis in a non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) rodent model

    PubMed Central

    Stefano, J.T.; Pereira, I.V.A.; Torres, M.M.; Bida, P.M.; Coelho, A.M.M.; Xerfan, M.P.; Cogliati, B.; Barbeiro, D.F.; Mazo, D.F.C.; Kubrusly, M.S.; D'Albuquerque, L.A.C.; Souza, H.P.; Carrilho, F.J.; Oliveira, C.P.

    2015-01-01

    Liver fibrosis occurring as an outcome of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can precede the development of cirrhosis. We investigated the effects of sorafenib in preventing liver fibrosis in a rodent model of NASH. Adult Sprague-Dawley rats were fed a choline-deficient high-fat diet and exposed to diethylnitrosamine for 6 weeks. The NASH group (n=10) received vehicle and the sorafenib group (n=10) received 2.5 mg·kg-1·day-1 by gavage. A control group (n=4) received only standard diet and vehicle. Following treatment, animals were sacrificed and liver tissue was collected for histologic examination, mRNA isolation, and analysis of mitochondrial function. Genes related to fibrosis (MMP9, TIMP1, TIMP2), oxidative stress (HSP60, HSP90, GST), and mitochondrial biogenesis (PGC1α) were evaluated by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Liver mitochondrial oxidation activity was measured by a polarographic method, and cytokines by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Sorafenib treatment restored mitochondrial function and reduced collagen deposition by nearly 63% compared to the NASH group. Sorafenib upregulated PGC1α and MMP9 and reduced TIMP1 and TIMP2 mRNA and IL-6 and IL-10 protein expression. There were no differences in HSP60, HSP90 and GST expression. Sorafenib modulated PGC1α expression, improved mitochondrial respiration and prevented collagen deposition. It may, therefore, be useful in the treatment of liver fibrosis in NASH. PMID:25714891

  17. Gary Nash: Repairing a Necessary Connection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bender, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    In this essay, the author comments on the life and the contributions of author Gary Nash. Everyone is thanking him for his remarkable engagement with the schools, as a writer of outstanding textbooks and materials for teachers developed through his work as director of the Center for Teaching History in the Schools, and, of course, the National…

  18. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  19. Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of the Leaf Area Index of the Caatinga Biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro, Everton; de Jong van Lier, Quirijn; Metselaar, Klaas

    2015-04-01

    Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important characteristic of ecosystems with a prominent role in processes such as transpiration, photosynthesis and interception. The Caatinga biome is a unique semiarid ecosystem ocurring in a specific region of Brazil. An important main feature of this biome is the leaf shedding and regenerative capacity of its species. The aim of this study was to quantify both spatial and temporal dynamics of the LAI of the Caatinga biome in the Aiuaba Experimental Basin, an integrally-preserved Caatinga reserve, coordinates 6°42'S; 40°17'W. The research site (12 km2) was divided into three main Soil and Vegatation Associations (SVA). For each SVA the soil type and root depth are respectively, Acrisol -0.8 m, Luvisol - 0.6 m and Regosol - 0.4 m. The LAI was estimated by SEBAL algorithm applied to eleven satellite images from Landsat 5. The values of LAI estimated by SEBAL were correlated to the mean soil water content of the 15 days previous to the satellite image date. Eight images were used to generate a simple regression model, yielding a range of coefficient of determination from 0.89 to 0.92. Three other images were used to validate the equations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ranged from 0.76 to 0.94. Using the validated correlations, the LAI was calculated over the time for each of the three SVA, from 2004 to 2012. For SVA1, SVA2 and SVA3, the avarage values of LAI during the rainy season were 0.97, 1.12 and 1.07, respectively. During the dry season, the mean values were 0.15 for SVA1 and 0.11 for SVA2 and SVA3. The vegetation showed abrupt LAI changes, and the average previous 15 days soil water content was a good indicator for this. The study has shown that the maximum LAI was relatively stable over the years, occurring between March and April. The spatial behavior of LAI appeared to be similar, independently of the soil type and root depth.

  20. NLRP3 inflammasome blockade reduces liver inflammation and fibrosis in experimental NASH in mice.

    PubMed

    Mridha, Auvro R; Wree, Alexander; Robertson, Avril A B; Yeh, Matthew M; Johnson, Casey D; Van Rooyen, Derrick M; Haczeyni, Fahrettin; Teoh, Narci C-H; Savard, Christopher; Ioannou, George N; Masters, Seth L; Schroder, Kate; Cooper, Matthew A; Feldstein, Ariel E; Farrell, Geoffrey C

    2017-05-01

    NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome activation occurs in Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We used the first small molecule NLRP3 inhibitor, MCC950, to test whether inflammasome blockade alters inflammatory recruitment and liver fibrosis in two murine models of steatohepatitis. We fed foz/foz and wild-type mice an atherogenic diet for 16weeks, gavaged MCC950 or vehicle until 24weeks, then determined NAFLD phenotype. In mice fed an methionine/choline deficient (MCD) diet, we gavaged MCC950 or vehicle for 6weeks and determined the effects on liver fibrosis. In vehicle-treated foz/foz mice, hepatic expression of NLRP3, pro-IL-1β, active caspase-1 and IL-1β increased at 24weeks, in association with cholesterol crystal formation and NASH pathology; plasma IL-1β, IL-6, MCP-1, ALT/AST all increased. MCC950 treatment normalized hepatic caspase 1 and IL-1β expression, plasma IL-1β, MCP-1 and IL-6, lowered ALT/AST, and reduced the severity of liver inflammation including designation as NASH pathology, and liver fibrosis. In vitro, cholesterol crystals activated Kupffer cells and macrophages to release IL-1β; MCC950 abolished this, and the associated neutrophil migration. MCD diet-fed mice developed fibrotic steatohepatitis; MCC950 suppressed the increase in hepatic caspase 1 and IL-1β, lowered numbers of macrophages and neutrophils in the liver, and improved liver fibrosis. MCC950, an NLRP3 selective inhibitor, improved NAFLD pathology and fibrosis in obese diabetic mice. This is potentially attributable to the blockade of cholesterol crystal-mediated NLRP3 activation in myeloid cells. MCC950 reduced liver fibrosis in MCD-fed mice. Targeting NLRP3 is a logical direction in pharmacotherapy of NASH. Fatty liver disease caused by being overweight with diabetes and a high risk of heart attack, termed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is the most common serious liver disease with no current treatment. There could be several causes of inflammation

  1. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  2. Grace Nash: Nine Decades of Graceful Teaching.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cole, Judith

    2000-01-01

    Provides information on the life of Grace Nash, an influential educator and pioneer of Orff Schulwerk in the United States, focusing on issues such as her young life, experience as a prisoner-of-war, development of her interest in the Orff, Kodaly, and Laban methods, and her own work. Offers selected resources. (CMK)

  3. Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

  4. Memories of Gary Nash over Five Decades

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mellor, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    It is as a longtime client, softball teammate, colleague, traveling companion, and friend that the author writes this article to honor Gary Nash. He has known him in varied guises in five different decades, and on five continents, with Africa coming in 2009. In this article, the author recalls some of his memories of Gary over five decades.

  5. Pharmacological cholesterol lowering reverses fibrotic NASH in obese, diabetic mice with metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Van Rooyen, Derrick M; Gan, Lay T; Yeh, Matthew M; Haigh, W Geoffrey; Larter, Claire Z; Ioannou, George; Teoh, Narci C; Farrell, Geoffrey C

    2013-07-01

    We have recently showed that hyperinsulinemia promotes hepatic free cholesterol (FC) accumulation in obese, insulin-resistant Alms1 mutant (foz/foz) mice with NASH. Here we tested whether cholesterol-lowering drugs reduce stress-activated c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) activation, hepatocyte injury/apoptosis, inflammation, and fibrosis in this metabolic syndrome NASH model. Female foz/foz and WT mice were fed HF (0.2% cholesterol) 16 weeks, before adding ezetimibe (5 mg/kg), atorvastatin (20 mg/kg), or both to diet, another 8 weeks. Hepatic lipidomic analysis, ALT, liver histology, Sirius Red morphometry, hepatic mRNA and protein expression and immunohistochemistry (IHC) for apoptosis (M30), macrophages (F4/80), and polymorphs (myeloperoxidase) were determined. In mice with NASH, ezetimibe/atorvastatin combination normalized hepatic FC but did not alter saturated free fatty acids (FFA) and had minimal effects on other lipids; ezetimibe and atorvastatin had similar but less profound effects. Pharmacological lowering of FC abolished JNK activation, improved serum ALT, apoptosis, liver inflammation/NAFLD activity score, designation as "NASH", macrophage chemotactic protein-1 expression, reduced macrophage and polymorph populations, and liver fibrosis. Cholesterol lowering with ezetimibe/atorvastatin combination reverses hepatic FC but not saturated FFA accumulation. This dampens JNK activation, ALT release, hepatocyte apoptosis, and inflammatory recruitment, with reversal of steatohepatitis pathology and liver fibrosis. Ezetimibe/statin combination is a potent, mechanism-based treatment that could reverse NASH and liver fibrosis. Copyright © 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A refined index of model performance: a rejoinder

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Legates, David R.; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2013-01-01

    Willmott et al. [Willmott CJ, Robeson SM, Matsuura K. 2012. A refined index of model performance. International Journal of Climatology, forthcoming. DOI:10.1002/joc.2419.] recently suggest a refined index of model performance (dr) that they purport to be superior to other methods. Their refined index ranges from − 1.0 to 1.0 to resemble a correlation coefficient, but it is merely a linear rescaling of our modified coefficient of efficiency (E1) over the positive portion of the domain of dr. We disagree with Willmott et al. (2012) that dr provides a better interpretation; rather, E1 is more easily interpreted such that a value of E1 = 1.0 indicates a perfect model (no errors) while E1 = 0.0 indicates a model that is no better than the baseline comparison (usually the observed mean). Negative values of E1 (and, for that matter, dr < 0.5) indicate a substantially flawed model as they simply describe a ‘level of inefficacy’ for a model that is worse than the comparison baseline. Moreover, while dr is piecewise continuous, it is not continuous through the second and higher derivatives. We explain why the coefficient of efficiency (E or E2) and its modified form (E1) are superior and preferable to many other statistics, including dr, because of intuitive interpretability and because these indices have a fundamental meaning at zero.We also expand on the discussion begun by Garrick et al. [Garrick M, Cunnane C, Nash JE. 1978. A criterion of efficiency for rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology 36: 375-381.] and continued by Legates and McCabe [Legates DR, McCabe GJ. 1999. Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research 35(1): 233-241.] and Schaefli and Gupta [Schaefli B, Gupta HV. 2007. Do Nash values have value? Hydrological Processes 21: 2075-2080. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6825.]. This important discussion focuses on the appropriate baseline comparison to

  7. Beyond Reasonable Doubt: Who Is the Culprit in Lipotoxicity in NAFLD/NASH?

    PubMed Central

    Arteel, Gavin E.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS Type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are associated with insulin resistance and disordered cholesterol homeostasis. We investigated the basis for hepatic cholesterol accumulation with insulin resistance and its relevance to the pathogenesis of NASH. METHODS Alms1 mutant (foz/foz) and wild-type NOD.B10 mice were fed high-fat diets that contained varying percentages of cholesterol; hepatic lipid pools and pathways of cholesterol turnover were determined. Hepatocytes were exposed to insulin concentrations that circulate in diabetic foz/foz mice. RESULTS Hepatic cholesterol accumulation was attributed to up-regulation of low-density lipoprotein receptor via activation of sterol regulatory element binding protein 2 (SREBP-2), reduced biotransformation to bile acids, and suppression of canalicular pathways for cholesterol and bile acid excretion in bile. Exposing primary hepatocytes to concentrations of insulin that circulate in diabetic Alms1 mice replicated the increases in SREBP-2 and low-density lipoprotein receptor and suppression of bile salt export pump. Removing cholesterol from diet prevented hepatic accumulation of free cholesterol and NASH; increasing dietary cholesterol levels exacerbated hepatic accumulation of free cholesterol, hepatocyte injury or apoptosis, macrophage recruitment, and liver fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS In obese, diabetic mice, hyperinsulinemia alters nuclear transcriptional regulators of cholesterol homeostasis, leading to hepatic accumulation of free cholesterol; the resulting cytotoxicity mediates transition of steatosis to NASH. PMID:22422583

  8. Distributed Nash Equilibrium Seeking for Generalized Convex Games with Shared Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Chao; Hu, Guoqiang

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we deal with the problem of finding a Nash equilibrium for a generalized convex game. Each player is associated with a convex cost function and multiple shared constraints. Supposing that each player can exchange information with its neighbors via a connected undirected graph, the objective of this paper is to design a Nash equilibrium seeking law such that each agent minimizes its objective function in a distributed way. Consensus and singular perturbation theories are used to prove the stability of the system. A numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

  9. Long term highly saturated fat diet does not induce NASH in Wistar rats

    PubMed Central

    Romestaing, Caroline; Piquet, Marie-Astrid; Bedu, Elodie; Rouleau, Vincent; Dautresme, Marianne; Hourmand-Ollivier, Isabelle; Filippi, Céline; Duchamp, Claude; Sibille, Brigitte

    2007-01-01

    Background Understanding of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is hampered by the lack of a suitable model. Our aim was to investigate whether long term high saturated-fat feeding would induce NASH in rats. Methods 21 day-old rats fed high fat diets for 14 weeks, with either coconut oil or butter, and were compared with rats feeding a standard diet or a methionine choline-deficient (MCD) diet, a non physiological model of NASH. Results MCDD fed rats rapidly lost weight and showed NASH features. Rats fed coconut (86% of saturated fatty acid) or butter (51% of saturated fatty acid) had an increased caloric intake (+143% and +30%). At the end of the study period, total lipid ingestion in term of percentage of energy intake was higher in both coconut (45%) and butter (42%) groups than in the standard (7%) diet group. No change in body mass was observed as compared with standard rats at the end of the experiment. However, high fat fed rats were fattier with enlarged white and brown adipose tissue (BAT) depots, but they showed no liver steatosis and no difference in triglyceride content in hepatocytes, as compared with standard rats. Absence of hepatic lipid accumulation with high fat diets was not related to a higher lipid oxidation by isolated hepatocytes (unchanged ketogenesis and oxygen consumption) or hepatic mitochondrial respiration but was rather associated with a rise in BAT uncoupling protein UCP1 (+25–28% vs standard). Conclusion Long term high saturated fat feeding led to increased "peripheral" fat storage and BAT thermogenesis but did not induce hepatic steatosis and NASH. PMID:17313679

  10. Application of Temperature Index Model to Assess the Future Hydrological Regime of the Glacierized Catchments in Nepal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, R.; Kayastha, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Unavailability of hydro meteorological data in the Himalayan regions is challenging on understanding the flow regimes. Temperature index model is simple yet the powerful glacio-hydrological model to simulate the discharge in the glacierized basin. Modified Positive Degree Day (MPDD) Model Version 2.0 is a grid-ded based semi distributed model with baseflow module is a robust melt modelling tools to estimate the discharge. MPDD model uses temperature and precipitation as a forcing datasets to simulate the discharge and also to obtain the snowmelt, icemelt, rain and baseflow contribution on total discharge. In this study two glacierized, Marsyangdi and Langtang catchment were investigated for the future hydrological regimes. Marsyangdi encompasses an area of 4026.19 sq. km with 20% glaciated area, whereas Langtang catchment with area of 354.64 sq. km with 36% glaciated area is studied to examine for the future climatic scenarios. The model simulates discharge well for the observed period; (1992-1998) in Marsyangdi and from (2007-2013) in Langtang catchment. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the both catchment were above 0.75 with the volume difference less than - 8 %. The snow and ice melts contribution in Marsyangdi were 4.7% and 10.2% whereas in Langtang the contribution is 15.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Rain contribution ( 40%) is higher than the baseflow contribution in total discharge in both basins. The future river discharge is also predicted using the future climate data from the regional climate models (RCMs) of CORDEX South Asia experiments for the medium stabilization scenario RCP4.5 and very high radiative forcing scenario RCP8.5 after bias correction. The projected future discharge of both catchment shows slightly increase in both scenarios with increase of snow and ice melt contribution on discharge. The result generated from the model can be utilized to understand the future hydrological regimes of the glacierized catchment also the impact of

  11. Gary Nash: Preeminent Scholar and Committed Educator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Symcox, Linda

    2009-01-01

    The author has known Gary Nash as a friend since 1969, but she only began to work with him as a colleague in 1989, when he invited her to join the National Center for History in the Schools (NCHS) as it was just forming. During the seven years she spent as Assistant and then Associate Director of the NCHS, they shared the extraordinary experience…

  12. Nash Equilibria in Noncooperative Predator-Prey Games

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ramos, Angel Manuel; Roubicek, Tomas

    2007-09-15

    A noncooperative game governed by a distributed-parameter predator-prey system is considered, assuming that two players control initial conditions for predator and prey, respectively. Existence of a Nash equilibrium is shown under the condition that the desired population profiles and the environmental carrying capacity for the prey are sufficiently small. A conceptual approximation algorithm is proposed and analyzed. Finally, numerical simulations are performed, too.

  13. Assessment of runoff and sediment yields using the AnnAGNPS model in a Three-Gorge watershed of China.

    PubMed

    Hua, Lizhong; He, Xiubin; Yuan, Yongping; Nan, Hongwei

    2012-05-01

    Soil erosion has been recognized as one of the major threats to our environment and water quality worldwide, especially in China. To mitigate nonpoint source water quality problems caused by soil erosion, best management practices (BMPs) and/or conservation programs have been adopted. Watershed models, such as the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollutant Loading model (AnnAGNPS), have been developed to aid in the evaluation of watershed response to watershed management practices. The model has been applied worldwide and proven to be a very effective tool in identifying the critical areas which had serious erosion, and in aiding in decision-making processes for adopting BMPs and/or conservation programs so that cost/benefit can be maximized and non-point source pollution control can be achieved in the most efficient way. The main goal of this study was to assess the characteristics of soil erosion, sediment and sediment delivery of a watershed so that effective conservation measures can be implemented. To achieve the overall objective of this study, all necessary data for the 4,184 km(2) Daning River watershed in the Three-Gorge region of the Yangtze River of China were assembled. The model was calibrated using observed monthly runoff from 1998 to 1999 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.94 and R(2) of 0.94) and validated using the observed monthly runoff from 2003 to 2005 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.93 and R(2) of 0.93). Additionally, the model was validated using annual average sediment of 2000-2002 (relative error of -0.34) and 2003-2004 (relative error of 0.18) at Wuxi station. Post validation simulation showed that approximately 48% of the watershed was under the soil loss tolerance released by the Ministry of Water Resources of China (500 t·km(-2)·y(-1)). However, 8% of the watershed had soil erosion of exceeding 5,000 t·km(-2)·y(-1). Sloping areas and low coverage areas are the main source of soil loss in the

  14. Progression and Regression of Hepatic Lesions in a Mouse Model of NASH Induced by Dietary Intervention and Its Implications in Pharmacotherapy.

    PubMed

    Ding, Zhi-Ming; Xiao, Yue; Wu, Xikun; Zou, Haixia; Yang, Shurong; Shen, Yiyun; Xu, Juehua; Workman, Heather C; Usborne, Amy L; Hua, Haiqing

    2018-01-01

    Understanding of the temporal changes of hepatic lesions in the progression and regression of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is vital to elucidation of the pathogenesis of NASH, and critical to the development of a strategy for NASH pharmacotherapy. There are challenges in studying hepatic lesion progression and regression in NASH patients due to the slow development of NASH in humans, one being the requirement for multiple biopsies during the longitudinal follow-up. Here we studied lesion progression and regression in the diet-induced animal model of NASH by application or removal of the pathogenic diet for multiple time periods. Male C57BL/6 mice fed Western diet developed progressive hepatic steatosis/macrovesicular vacuolation, inflammation, and hepatocyte degeneration, as well as perisinusoidal fibrosis and occasionally portal fibrosis as early as 2 months after initiation of the Western diet. In the same period, the mice exhibited elevated ALT (alanine aminotransferase) and AST (aspartate aminotransferase) enzyme activities, CK18 (cytokeratin-18), PIIINP (N-terminal propeptide of type III collagen), and TIMP-1 (tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1). Hepatic steatosis diminished rapidly when the Western diet was replaced by normal rodent chow diet and hepatic inflammation and hepatocyte degeneration were also reduced. Interestingly, perisinusoidal fibrosis and portal fibrosis regressed 8 months after chow diet replacement. To understand pharmacotherapy for NASH, mice with established NASH hepatic lesions were treated with either FXR agonist obeticholic acid (Ocaliva), or CCR2/5 antagonist Cenicriviroc. Similar to the diet replacement, metabolic modulator Ocaliva markedly reduced steatosis/macrovesicular vacuolation, hepatic inflammation, and hepatocyte degeneration effectively, but exhibited no significant effect on liver fibrosis. Anti-inflammation drug Cenicriviroc, on the other hand, markedly decreased inflammation and hepatocyte degeneration, and

  15. Gut microbiome composition in lean patients with NASH is associated with liver damage independent of caloric intake: A prospective pilot study.

    PubMed

    Duarte, S M B; Stefano, J T; Miele, L; Ponziani, F R; Souza-Basqueira, M; Okada, L S R R; de Barros Costa, F G; Toda, K; Mazo, D F C; Sabino, E C; Carrilho, F J; Gasbarrini, A; Oliveira, C P

    2018-04-01

    The aim of the study was to compare the gut microbiomes from obese and lean patients with or without NASH to outline phenotypic differences. We performed a cross-sectional pilot study comprising biopsy-proven NASH patients grouped according to BMI. Microbiome DNA was extracted from stool samples, and PCR amplification was performed using primers for the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. The amplicons were sequenced using the Ion PGM Torrent platform, and data were analyzed using QIIME software. Macronutrient consumption was analyzed by a 7-day food record. Liver fibrosis ≥ F2 was associated with increased abundance of Lactobacilli (p = 0.0007). NASH patients showed differences in Faecalibacterium, Ruminococcus, Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium abundance compared with the control group. Lean NASH patients had a 3-fold lower abundance of Faecalibacterium and Ruminococcus (p = 0.004), obese NASH patients were enriched in Lactobacilli (p = 0.002), and overweight NASH patients had reduced Bifidobacterium (p = 0.018). Moreover, lean NASH patients showed a deficiency in Lactobacillus compared with overweight and obese NASH patients. This group also appeared similar to the control group with regard to gut microbiome alpha diversity. Although there were qualitative differences between lean NASH and overweight/obese NASH, they were not statistically significant (p = 0.618). The study limitations included a small sample size, a food questionnaire that collected only qualitative and semi-quantitative data, and variations in group gender composition that may influence differences in FXR signaling, bile acids metabolism and the composition of gut microbiota. Our preliminary finding of a different pathogenetic process in lean NASH patients needs to be confirmed by larger studies, including those with patient populations stratified by sex and dietary habits. Copyright © 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the

  16. Efficient protein structure search using indexing methods

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Understanding functions of proteins is one of the most important challenges in many studies of biological processes. The function of a protein can be predicted by analyzing the functions of structurally similar proteins, thus finding structurally similar proteins accurately and efficiently from a large set of proteins is crucial. A protein structure can be represented as a vector by 3D-Zernike Descriptor (3DZD) which compactly represents the surface shape of the protein tertiary structure. This simplified representation accelerates the searching process. However, computing the similarity of two protein structures is still computationally expensive, thus it is hard to efficiently process many simultaneous requests of structurally similar protein search. This paper proposes indexing techniques which substantially reduce the search time to find structurally similar proteins. In particular, we first exploit two indexing techniques, i.e., iDistance and iKernel, on the 3DZDs. After that, we extend the techniques to further improve the search speed for protein structures. The extended indexing techniques build and utilize an reduced index constructed from the first few attributes of 3DZDs of protein structures. To retrieve top-k similar structures, top-10 × k similar structures are first found using the reduced index, and top-k structures are selected among them. We also modify the indexing techniques to support θ-based nearest neighbor search, which returns data points less than θ to the query point. The results show that both iDistance and iKernel significantly enhance the searching speed. In top-k nearest neighbor search, the searching time is reduced 69.6%, 77%, 77.4% and 87.9%, respectively using iDistance, iKernel, the extended iDistance, and the extended iKernel. In θ-based nearest neighbor serach, the searching time is reduced 80%, 81%, 95.6% and 95.6% using iDistance, iKernel, the extended iDistance, and the extended iKernel, respectively. PMID:23691543

  17. Efficient protein structure search using indexing methods.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sungchul; Sael, Lee; Yu, Hwanjo

    2013-01-01

    Understanding functions of proteins is one of the most important challenges in many studies of biological processes. The function of a protein can be predicted by analyzing the functions of structurally similar proteins, thus finding structurally similar proteins accurately and efficiently from a large set of proteins is crucial. A protein structure can be represented as a vector by 3D-Zernike Descriptor (3DZD) which compactly represents the surface shape of the protein tertiary structure. This simplified representation accelerates the searching process. However, computing the similarity of two protein structures is still computationally expensive, thus it is hard to efficiently process many simultaneous requests of structurally similar protein search. This paper proposes indexing techniques which substantially reduce the search time to find structurally similar proteins. In particular, we first exploit two indexing techniques, i.e., iDistance and iKernel, on the 3DZDs. After that, we extend the techniques to further improve the search speed for protein structures. The extended indexing techniques build and utilize an reduced index constructed from the first few attributes of 3DZDs of protein structures. To retrieve top-k similar structures, top-10 × k similar structures are first found using the reduced index, and top-k structures are selected among them. We also modify the indexing techniques to support θ-based nearest neighbor search, which returns data points less than θ to the query point. The results show that both iDistance and iKernel significantly enhance the searching speed. In top-k nearest neighbor search, the searching time is reduced 69.6%, 77%, 77.4% and 87.9%, respectively using iDistance, iKernel, the extended iDistance, and the extended iKernel. In θ-based nearest neighbor serach, the searching time is reduced 80%, 81%, 95.6% and 95.6% using iDistance, iKernel, the extended iDistance, and the extended iKernel, respectively.

  18. Nash equilibrium in differential games and the construction of the programmed iteration method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Averboukh, Yurii V

    This work is devoted to the study of nonzero-sum differential games. The set of payoffs in a situation of Nash equilibrium is examined. It is shown that the set of payoffs in a situation of Nash equilibrium coincides with the set of values of consistent functions which are fixed points of the program absorption operator. A condition for functions to be consistent is given in terms of the weak invariance of the graph of the functions under a certain differential inclusion. Bibliography: 18 titles.

  19. Green-Ampt approximations: A comprehensive analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, Shakir; Islam, Adlul; Mishra, P. K.; Sikka, Alok K.

    2016-04-01

    Green-Ampt (GA) model and its modifications are widely used for simulating infiltration process. Several explicit approximate solutions to the implicit GA model have been developed with varying degree of accuracy. In this study, performance of nine explicit approximations to the GA model is compared with the implicit GA model using the published data for broad range of soil classes and infiltration time. The explicit GA models considered are Li et al. (1976) (LI), Stone et al. (1994) (ST), Salvucci and Entekhabi (1994) (SE), Parlange et al. (2002) (PA), Barry et al. (2005) (BA), Swamee et al. (2012) (SW), Ali et al. (2013) (AL), Almedeij and Esen (2014) (AE), and Vatankhah (2015) (VA). Six statistical indicators (e.g., percent relative error, maximum absolute percent relative error, average absolute percent relative errors, percent bias, index of agreement, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) and relative computer computation time are used for assessing the model performance. Models are ranked based on the overall performance index (OPI). The BA model is found to be the most accurate followed by the PA and VA models for variety of soil classes and infiltration periods. The AE, SW, SE, and LI model also performed comparatively better. Based on the overall performance index, the explicit models are ranked as BA > PA > VA > LI > AE > SE > SW > ST > AL. Results of this study will be helpful in selection of accurate and simple explicit approximate GA models for solving variety of hydrological problems.

  20. Surviving History: Gary Nash and the National Standards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bingham, Marjorie

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the author recalls the first time she met Gary Nash. He came to speak at a Bradley Commission meeting and she was rather surprised to see him appear and to find out that he, along with Charlotte Crabtree, was involved in a National Center for History. She gives three reasons for her surprise which she thinks may tell aspects of…

  1. A Graphical Analysis of the Cournot-Nash and Stackelberg Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulton, Murray

    1997-01-01

    Shows how the Cournot-Nash and Stackelberg equilibria can be represented in the familiar supply-demand graphical framework, allowing a direct comparison with the monopoly, competitive, and industrial organization models. This graphical analysis is represented throughout the article. (MJP)

  2. Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pullan, S P; Whelan, M J; Rettino, J; Filby, K; Eyre, S; Holman, I P

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479-1653km(2)) with sampling approximately every 14days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally >0.59 and PBIAS <10%) and pesticide concentrations, although low sampling frequency in the larger catchments is likely to mask the true episodic nature of exposure. The computational efficiency of the model, along with the fact that most of its parameters can be derived from existing national soil property data mean that it can be used to rapidly predict pesticide exposure in multiple surface water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Critical Realism and Statistical Methods--A Response to Nash

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, David

    2007-01-01

    This article offers a defence of critical realism in the face of objections Nash (2005) makes to it in a recent edition of this journal. It is argued that critical and scientific realisms are closely related and that both are opposed to statistical positivism. However, the suggestion is made that scientific realism retains (from statistical…

  4. Fast and efficient indexing approach for object recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hefnawy, Alaa; Mashali, Samia A.; Rashwan, Mohsen; Fikri, Magdi

    1999-08-01

    This paper introduces a fast and efficient indexing approach for both 2D and 3D model-based object recognition in the presence of rotation, translation, and scale variations of objects. The indexing entries are computed after preprocessing the data by Haar wavelet decomposition. The scheme is based on a unified image feature detection approach based on Zernike moments. A set of low level features, e.g. high precision edges, gray level corners, are estimated by a set of orthogonal Zernike moments, calculated locally around every image point. A high dimensional, highly descriptive indexing entries are then calculated based on the correlation of these local features and employed for fast access to the model database to generate hypotheses. A list of the most candidate models is then presented by evaluating the hypotheses. Experimental results are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed indexing approach.

  5. Follow-up CT findings of tamoxifen-induced non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) of breast cancer patients treated with bezafibrate.

    PubMed

    Ogawa, Yasuhiro; Murata, Yoriko; Saibara, Toshiji; Nishioka, Akihito; Kariya, Shinji; Yoshida, Shoji

    2003-01-01

    One-third of the breast cancer patients who underwent tamoxifen intake showed less than 0.9 of their liver/spleen CT (computed tomography) ratio on their annual CT study, and were diagnosed as having fatty liver (hepatic steatosis). Among them, patients who showed a lower liver/spleen CT ratio of less than 0.5 were recommended to undergo needle biopsy of the liver in order to obtain histopathological confirmation of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), with 15 patients undergoing needle biopsy of the liver. As a result, 14 out of the 15 patients were diagnosed as having NASH, and these patients were additionally administered bezafibrate in order to prevent possible progressive changes of NASH into liver cirrhosis. In this study, we show the changes of follow-up CT findings of 6 patients with histopathologically-proven NASH who continued to undergo bezafibrate intake after the diagnosis of NASH. Two patients showed almost complete improvement as indicated by the liver/spleen CT ratio several months after completion of a tamoxifen intake of 5 years, and another 3 showed partial improvement on their liver/spleen CT ratio by bezafibrate intake in spite of continuing tamoxifen intake. Another patient with diabetes mellitus (type II) showed a continually decreasing liver/spleen CT ratio during adjuvant tamoxifen in spite of bezafibrate intake. Therefore, we concluded that the progression of NASH could be prevented by bezafibrate without any interruption of adjuvant tamoxifen treatment. For patients with diabetes mellitus, critical follow-up using CT study and laboratory tests is considered essential.

  6. Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, Christopher A.; Groten, Joel T.; Lorenz, David L.; Koller, Karl S.

    2016-10-27

    -of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data.Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model.Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a

  7. Fuzzy rule-based forecast of meteorological drought in western Niger

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou; Acar, Reşat

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the causes of rainfall anomalies in the West African Sahel to effectively predict drought events remains a challenge. The physical mechanisms that influence precipitation in this region are complex, uncertain, and imprecise in nature. Fuzzy logic techniques are renowned to be highly efficient in modeling such dynamics. This paper attempts to forecast meteorological drought in Western Niger using fuzzy rule-based modeling techniques. The 3-month scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) of four rainfall stations was used as predictand. Monthly data of southern oscillation index (SOI), South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), and Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP), sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), were used as predictors. Fuzzy rules and membership functions were generated using fuzzy c-means clustering approach, expert decision, and literature review. For a minimum lead time of 1 month, the model has a coefficient of determination R 2 between 0.80 and 0.88, mean square error (MSE) below 0.17, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.79 and 0.87. The empirical frequency distributions of the predicted and the observed drought classes are equal at the 99% of confidence level based on two-sample t test. Results also revealed the discrepancy in the influence of SOI and SLP on drought occurrence at the four stations while the effect of SST and RH are space independent, being both significantly correlated (at α < 0.05 level) to the SPI-3. Moreover, the implemented fuzzy model compared to decision tree-based forecast model shows better forecast skills.

  8. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    Error ranging from 0.9945-0.9990, 0.0466-0.1117, and 0.0013-0.0130, respectively for individual stations. Also, the Willmott's Index of Agreement and the Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency were between 0.932-0.959 and 0.977-0.998, respectively. When checked for the severity (S), duration (D) and peak intensity (I) of drought events determined from the simulated and observed SPEI, differences in drought parameters ranged from - 1.41-0.64%, - 2.17-1.92% and - 3.21-1.21%, respectively. Based on performance evaluation measures, we aver that the Artificial Neural Network model is a useful data-driven tool for forecasting monthly SPEI and its drought-related properties in the region of study.

  9. Kupffer Cells Undergo Fundamental Changes during the Development of Experimental NASH and Are Critical in Initiating Liver Damage and Inflammation

    PubMed Central

    Reid, D. T.; Reyes, J. L.; McDonald, B. A.; Vo, T.; Reimer, R. A.; Eksteen, B.

    2016-01-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease has become the leading liver disease in North America and is associated with the progressive inflammatory liver disease non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Considerable effort has been made to understand the role of resident and recruited macrophage populations in NASH however numerous questions remain. Our goal was to characterize the dynamic changes in liver macrophages during the initiation of NASH in a murine model. Using the methionine-choline deficient diet we found that liver-resident macrophages, Kupffer cells were lost early in disease onset followed by a robust infiltration of Ly-6C+ monocyte-derived macrophages that retained a dynamic phenotype. Genetic profiling revealed distinct patterns of inflammatory gene expression between macrophage subsets. Only early depletion of liver macrophages using liposomal clodronate prevented the development of NASH in mice suggesting that Kupffer cells are critical for the orchestration of inflammation during experimental NASH. Increased understanding of these dynamics may allow us to target potentially harmful populations whilst promoting anti-inflammatory or restorative populations to ultimately guide the development of effective treatment strategies. PMID:27454866

  10. Dynamic Forest: An Efficient Index Structure for NAND Flash Memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chul-Woong; Yong Lee, Ki; Ho Kim, Myoung; Lee, Yoon-Joon

    In this paper, we present an efficient index structure for NAND flash memory, called the Dynamic Forest (D-Forest). Since write operations incur high overhead on NAND flash memory, D-Forest is designed to minimize write operations for index updates. The experimental results show that D-Forest significantly reduces write operations compared to the conventional B+-tree.

  11. Information Structures in Nash and Leader-Follower Strategies.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    OICkASSIPICATION/ OOWNGRAOING IS. OISTNIIIUTION STATEMINT (ao tD. esPort ) * Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT...problems and two market models of duopoly ith this type of information structure are extensively analyzed and examined. DO jAN7, 1473 EDIION OF NV SS IS...information 3 structure is employed in both Nash games and optimal coordination problems and two market models of duopoly with this type of information

  12. Deterministic binary vectors for efficient automated indexing of MEDLINE/PubMed abstracts.

    PubMed

    Wahle, Manuel; Widdows, Dominic; Herskovic, Jorge R; Bernstam, Elmer V; Cohen, Trevor

    2012-01-01

    The need to maintain accessibility of the biomedical literature has led to development of methods to assist human indexers by recommending index terms for newly encountered articles. Given the rapid expansion of this literature, it is essential that these methods be scalable. Document vector representations are commonly used for automated indexing, and Random Indexing (RI) provides the means to generate them efficiently. However, RI is difficult to implement in real-world indexing systems, as (1) efficient nearest-neighbor search requires retaining all document vectors in RAM, and (2) it is necessary to maintain a store of randomly generated term vectors to index future documents. Motivated by these concerns, this paper documents the development and evaluation of a deterministic binary variant of RI. The increased capacity demonstrated by binary vectors has implications for information retrieval, and the elimination of the need to retain term vectors facilitates distributed implementations, enhancing the scalability of RI.

  13. Deterministic Binary Vectors for Efficient Automated Indexing of MEDLINE/PubMed Abstracts

    PubMed Central

    Wahle, Manuel; Widdows, Dominic; Herskovic, Jorge R.; Bernstam, Elmer V.; Cohen, Trevor

    2012-01-01

    The need to maintain accessibility of the biomedical literature has led to development of methods to assist human indexers by recommending index terms for newly encountered articles. Given the rapid expansion of this literature, it is essential that these methods be scalable. Document vector representations are commonly used for automated indexing, and Random Indexing (RI) provides the means to generate them efficiently. However, RI is difficult to implement in real-world indexing systems, as (1) efficient nearest-neighbor search requires retaining all document vectors in RAM, and (2) it is necessary to maintain a store of randomly generated term vectors to index future documents. Motivated by these concerns, this paper documents the development and evaluation of a deterministic binary variant of RI. The increased capacity demonstrated by binary vectors has implications for information retrieval, and the elimination of the need to retain term vectors facilitates distributed implementations, enhancing the scalability of RI. PMID:23304369

  14. On Nash Equilibrium and Evolutionarily Stable States That Are Not Characterised by the Folk Theorem

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jiawei; Kendall, Graham

    2015-01-01

    In evolutionary game theory, evolutionarily stable states are characterised by the folk theorem because exact solutions to the replicator equation are difficult to obtain. It is generally assumed that the folk theorem, which is the fundamental theory for non-cooperative games, defines all Nash equilibria in infinitely repeated games. Here, we prove that Nash equilibria that are not characterised by the folk theorem do exist. By adopting specific reactive strategies, a group of players can be better off by coordinating their actions in repeated games. We call it a type-k equilibrium when a group of k players coordinate their actions and they have no incentive to deviate from their strategies simultaneously. The existence and stability of the type-k equilibrium in general games is discussed. This study shows that the sets of Nash equilibria and evolutionarily stable states have greater cardinality than classic game theory has predicted in many repeated games. PMID:26288088

  15. Silicon-based highly-efficient fiber-to-waveguide coupler for high index contrast systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Victor; Montalbo, Trisha; Manolatou, Christina; Agarwal, Anu; Hong, Ching-yin; Yasaitis, John; Kimerling, L. C.; Michel, Jurgen

    2006-02-01

    A coupler to efficiently transfer broadband light from a single-mode optical fiber to a single-mode high-index contrast waveguide has been fabricated on a silicon substrate. We utilized a novel coupling scheme, with a vertically asymmetric design consisting of a stepwise parabolic graded index profile combined with a horizontal taper, to simultaneously confine light in both directions. Coupling efficiency has been measured as a function of the device dimensions. The optimal coupling efficiency is achieved for structures whose length equals the focal distance of the graded index and whose input width is close to the mode field diameter of the fiber. The fabricated structure is compact, robust and highly efficient, with an insertion loss of 2.2dB at 1550nm. The coupler exhibits less than 1dB variation in coupling efficiency in the measured spectral range from 1520nmto1620nm. The lowest insertion loss of 1.9dB is measured at 1540nm. The coupler design offers highly efficient coupling for single mode waveguides of core indices up to 2.2.

  16. Remediating Language Deficient/Dyslexic College Students: An Interview with Robert Nash.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundquist, Arlene J.; Nash, Robert

    1988-01-01

    Robert Nash responds to questions concerning his personal and professional background, the Simultaneous Multisensory Instructional Procedure for Teaching the Complete Sound Structure of the Language, problems associated with dyslexia, the social/emotional impact of learning disabilities, and the University of Wisconsin's Project Success for…

  17. 77 FR 10553 - Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish Band of Pottawatomi Indians (Gun Lake)-Amendment to Liquor Beverage...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Indian Affairs Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish Band of Pottawatomi Indians (Gun Lake)-- Amendment to Liquor Beverage Control Ordinance AGENCY: Bureau of Indian Affairs, Interior. ACTION: Notice SUMMARY: This notice publishes the amendments to the Match-E-Be-Nash- She-Wish...

  18. Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, I. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  19. Cholesterol-lowering drugs cause dissolution of cholesterol crystals and disperse Kupffer cell crown-like structures during resolution of NASH.

    PubMed

    Ioannou, George N; Van Rooyen, Derrick M; Savard, Christopher; Haigh, W Geoffrey; Yeh, Matthew M; Teoh, Narci C; Farrell, Geoffrey C

    2015-02-01

    Cholesterol crystals form within hepatocyte lipid droplets in human and experimental nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and are the focus of crown-like structures (CLSs) of activated Kupffer cells (KCs). Obese, diabetic Alms1 mutant (foz/foz) mice were a fed high-fat (23%) diet containing 0.2% cholesterol for 16 weeks and then assigned to four intervention groups for 8 weeks: a) vehicle control, b) ezetimibe (5 mg/kg/day), c) atorvastatin (20 mg/kg/day), or d) ezetimibe and atorvastatin. Livers of vehicle-treated mice developed fibrosing NASH with abundant cholesterol crystallization within lipid droplets calculated to extend over 3.3% (SD, 2.2%) of liver surface area. Hepatocyte lipid droplets with prominent cholesterol crystallization were surrounded by TNFα-positive (activated) KCs forming CLSs (≥ 3 per high-power field). KCs that formed CLSs stained positive for NLRP3, implicating activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome in response to cholesterol crystals. In contrast, foz/foz mice treated with ezetimibe and atorvastatin showed near-complete resolution of cholesterol crystals [0.01% (SD, 0.02%) of surface area] and CLSs (0 per high-power field), with amelioration of fibrotic NASH. Ezetimibe or atorvastatin alone had intermediate effects on cholesterol crystallization, CLSs, and NASH. These findings are consistent with a causative link between exposure of hepatocytes and KCs to cholesterol crystals and with the development of NASH possibly mediated by NLRP3 activation.

  20. Assessment of Runoff and Sediment Yields Using the AnnAGNPS Model in a Three-Gorge Watershed of China

    PubMed Central

    Hua, Lizhong; He, Xiubin; Yuan, Yongping; Nan, Hongwei

    2012-01-01

    Soil erosion has been recognized as one of the major threats to our environment and water quality worldwide, especially in China. To mitigate nonpoint source water quality problems caused by soil erosion, best management practices (BMPs) and/or conservation programs have been adopted. Watershed models, such as the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollutant Loading model (AnnAGNPS), have been developed to aid in the evaluation of watershed response to watershed management practices. The model has been applied worldwide and proven to be a very effective tool in identifying the critical areas which had serious erosion, and in aiding in decision-making processes for adopting BMPs and/or conservation programs so that cost/benefit can be maximized and non-point source pollution control can be achieved in the most efficient way. The main goal of this study was to assess the characteristics of soil erosion, sediment and sediment delivery of a watershed so that effective conservation measures can be implemented. To achieve the overall objective of this study, all necessary data for the 4,184 km2 Daning River watershed in the Three-Gorge region of the Yangtze River of China were assembled. The model was calibrated using observed monthly runoff from 1998 to 1999 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.94 and R2 of 0.94) and validated using the observed monthly runoff from 2003 to 2005 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.93 and R2 of 0.93). Additionally, the model was validated using annual average sediment of 2000–2002 (relative error of −0.34) and 2003–2004 (relative error of 0.18) at Wuxi station. Post validation simulation showed that approximately 48% of the watershed was under the soil loss tolerance released by the Ministry of Water Resources of China (500 t·km−2·y−1). However, 8% of the watershed had soil erosion of exceeding 5,000 t·km−2·y−1. Sloping areas and low coverage areas are the main source of soil loss in the

  1. Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) in HIV.

    PubMed

    Rockstroh, Jürgen Kurt

    2017-04-01

    Abnormal liver enzymes (LE) are common in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) even in the absence of viral hepatitis or alcohol abuse. With availability of antiretroviral combination therapy, life expectancy has improved dramatically and as a consequence the spectrum of liver disease is changing. Increased reports on the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in HIV coinfected patients raise questions around prevalence, clinical manifestations, and clinical outcome of these liver diseases in HIV coinfection. Moreover, the potential impact of combination antiretroviral therapy as well as direct HIV effects on the emergence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease needs to be explored. This review summarizes the recent literature on NAFLD and NASH in HIV.

  2. Optimization, Monotonicity and the Determination of Nash Equilibria — An Algorithmic Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lozovanu, D.; Pickl, S. W.; Weber, G.-W.

    2004-08-01

    This paper is concerned with the optimization of a nonlinear time-discrete model exploiting the special structure of the underlying cost game and the property of inverse matrices. The costs are interlinked by a system of linear inequalities. It is shown that, if the players cooperate, i.e., minimize the sum of all the costs, they achieve a Nash equilibrium. In order to determine Nash equilibria, the simplex method can be applied with respect to the dual problem. An introduction into the TEM model and its relationship to an economic Joint Implementation program is given. The equivalence problem is presented. The construction of the emission cost game and the allocation problem is explained. The assumption of inverse monotony for the matrices leads to a new result in the area of such allocation problems. A generalization of such problems is presented.

  3. NASH resolution is associated with improvements in HDL and triglyceride levels but not improvement in LDL or non-HDL-C levels.

    PubMed

    Corey, K E; Vuppalanchi, R; Wilson, L A; Cummings, O W; Chalasani, N

    2015-02-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease (CVD). To determine the relationship between resolution of NASH and dyslipidemia. Individuals in the Pioglitazone vs. Vitamin E vs. Placebo for the Treatment of Nondiabetic Patients with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (PIVENS) trial with paired liver biopsies and fasting lipid levels were included (N = 222). In the PIVENS trial individuals were randomised to pioglitazone 30 mg, vitamin E 800 IU or placebo for 96 weeks. Change in lipid levels at 96 weeks was compared between those with and without NASH resolution. Dyslipidemia at baseline was frequent, with low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (<40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women) in 63%, hypertriglyceridaemia (≥150 mg/dL) in 46%, hypercholesterolaemia (≥200 mg/dL) in 47% and triglycerides (TG)/HDL >5.0 in 25%. Low-density lipoprotein (LD) ≥160 mg/dL was found in 16% and elevated non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) (≥130 mg/dL) in 73%. HDL increased with NASH resolution but decreased in those without resolution (2.9 mg/dL vs. -2.5 mg/dL, P < 0.001). NASH resolution was associated with significant decreases in TG and TG/HDL ratio compared to those without resolution (TG: -21.1 vs. -2.3 mg/dL, P = 0.03 and TG/HDL: -0.7 vs. 0.1, P = 0.003). Non-HDL-C, LDL and cholesterol decreased over 96 weeks in both groups, but there was no significant difference between groups. Treatment group did not impact lipids. NASH resolution is associated with improvements in TG and HDL but not in other cardiovascular disease risk factors including LDL and non-HDL-C levels. Individuals with resolution of NASH may still be at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00063622. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Applicability of TOPMODEL in the mountainous catchments in the upper Nysa Kłodzka river basin (SW Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeziorska, Justyna; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2018-03-01

    River basins located in the Central Sudetes (SW Poland) demonstrate a high vulnerability to flooding. Four mountainous basins and the corresponding outlets have been chosen for modeling the streamflow dynamics using TOPMODEL, a physically based semi-distributed topohydrological model. The model has been calibrated using the Monte Carlo approach—with discharge, rainfall, and evapotranspiration data used to estimate the parameters. The overall performance of the model was judged by interpreting the efficiency measures. TOPMODEL was able to reproduce the main pattern of the hydrograph with acceptable accuracy for two of the investigated catchments. However, it failed to simulate the hydrological response in the remaining two catchments. The best performing data set obtained Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.78. This data set was chosen to conduct a detailed analysis aiming to estimate the optimal timespan of input data for which TOPMODEL performs best. The best fit was attained for the half-year time span. The model was validated and found to reveal good skills.

  5. A fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method for uncertainty propagation of hydrologic model parameters in a reduced dimensional space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Huang, W.; Fan, Y. R.; Li, Z.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, a fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method is proposed to reveal statistical significance of hydrologic model parameters and their multi-level interactions affecting model outputs, facilitating uncertainty propagation in a reduced dimensional space. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability, as well as its capability of revealing complex and dynamic parameter interactions. A set of reduced polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) only with statistically significant terms can be obtained based on the results of factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA), achieving a reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions. The predictive performance of reduced PCEs is verified by comparing against standard PCEs and the Monte Carlo with Latin hypercube sampling (MC-LHS) method in terms of reliability, sharpness, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results reveal that the reduced PCEs are able to capture hydrologic behaviors of the Xiangxi River watershed, and they are efficient functional representations for propagating uncertainties in hydrologic predictions.

  6. Efficacy of docosahexaenoic acid-choline-vitamin E in paediatric NASH: a randomized controlled clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Zöhrer, Evelyn; Alisi, Anna; Jahnel, Jörg; Mosca, Antonella; Della Corte, Claudia; Crudele, Annalisa; Fauler, Günter; Nobili, Valerio

    2017-09-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), a progressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, is one of the most common hepatic diseases in children. We conducted a randomized controlled clinical trial on children with biopsy-proven NASH based on a combinatorial nutritional approach compared with placebo. Participants were assigned to lifestyle modification plus placebo or lifestyle modification plus a mix containing docosahexaenoic acid, choline, and vitamin E (DHA-CHO-VE). Forty children and adolescents participated in the entire trial. The primary outcome was the improvement of liver hyperechogenicity. Secondary outcomes included alterations of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and other metabolic parameters. Furthermore, changes of serum bile acids (BA) and plasma fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19) levels were evaluated as inverse biomarkers of disease severity. At the end of the study, we observed a significant decrease in severe steatosis in the treatment group (50% to 5%, p = 0.001). Furthermore, although the anthropometric and biochemical measurements in the placebo and DHA-CHO-VE groups were comparable at baseline, at the end of the study ALT and fasting glucose levels improved only in the treatment group. Finally, we found that BA levels were not influenced whereas FGF19 levels were significantly increased by DHA-CHO-VE. The results suggest that a combination of DHA, VE, and CHO could improve steatosis and reduce ALT and glucose levels in children with NASH. However, further studies are needed to assess the impact of a DHA and VE combination on repair of liver damage in paediatric NASH.

  7. Performance of complex snow cover descriptions in a distributed hydrological model system: A case study for the high Alpine terrain of the Berchtesgaden Alps.

    PubMed

    Warscher, M; Strasser, U; Kraller, G; Marke, T; Franz, H; Kunstmann, H

    2013-05-01

    [1] Runoff generation in Alpine regions is typically affected by snow processes. Snow accumulation, storage, redistribution, and ablation control the availability of water. In this study, several robust parameterizations describing snow processes in Alpine environments were implemented in a fully distributed, physically based hydrological model. Snow cover development is simulated using different methods from a simple temperature index approach, followed by an energy balance scheme, to additionally accounting for gravitational and wind-driven lateral snow redistribution. Test site for the study is the Berchtesgaden National Park (Bavarian Alps, Germany) which is characterized by extreme topography and climate conditions. The performance of the model system in reproducing snow cover dynamics and resulting discharge generation is analyzed and validated via measurements of snow water equivalent and snow depth, satellite-based remote sensing data, and runoff gauge data. Model efficiency (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) for simulated runoff increases from 0.57 to 0.68 in a high Alpine headwater catchment and from 0.62 to 0.64 in total with increasing snow model complexity. In particular, the results show that the introduction of the energy balance scheme reproduces daily fluctuations in the snowmelt rates that trace down to the channel stream. These daily cycles measured in snowmelt and resulting runoff rates could not be reproduced by using the temperature index approach. In addition, accounting for lateral snow transport changes the seasonal distribution of modeled snowmelt amounts, which leads to a higher accuracy in modeling runoff characteristics.

  8. Ensemble hydrological forecast efficiency evolution over various issue dates and lead-time: case study for the Cheboksary reservoir (Volga River)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Moreido, Vsevolod

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble hydrological forecasting allows for describing uncertainty caused by variability of meteorological conditions in the river basin for the forecast lead-time. At the same time, in snowmelt-dependent river basins another significant source of uncertainty relates to variability of initial conditions of the basin (snow water equivalent, soil moisture content, etc.) prior to forecast issue. Accurate long-term hydrological forecast is most crucial for large water management systems, such as the Cheboksary reservoir (the catchment area is 374 000 sq.km) located in the Middle Volga river in Russia. Accurate forecasts of water inflow volume, maximum discharge and other flow characteristics are of great value for this basin, especially before the beginning of the spring freshet season that lasts here from April to June. The semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG was used to develop long-term ensemble forecast of daily water inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir. To describe variability of the meteorological conditions and construct ensemble of possible weather scenarios for the lead-time of the forecast, two approaches were applied. The first one utilizes 50 weather scenarios observed in the previous years (similar to the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure), the second one uses 1000 synthetic scenarios simulated by a stochastic weather generator. We investigated the evolution of forecast uncertainty reduction, expressed as forecast efficiency, over various consequent forecast issue dates and lead time. We analyzed the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of inflow hindcasts for the period 1982 to 2016 starting from 1st of March with 15 days frequency for lead-time of 1 to 6 months. This resulted in the forecast efficiency matrix with issue dates versus lead-time that allows for predictability identification of the basin. The matrix was constructed separately for observed and synthetic weather ensembles.

  9. The Combination of Blueberry Juice and Probiotics Ameliorate Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) by Affecting SREBP-1c/PNPLA-3 Pathway via PPAR-α.

    PubMed

    Ren, Tingting; Zhu, Juanjuan; Zhu, Lili; Cheng, Mingliang

    2017-02-27

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is liver inflammation and a major threat to public health. Several pharmaceutical agents have been used for NASH therapy but their high-rate side effects limit the use. Blueberry juice and probiotics (BP) have anti-inflammation and antibacterial properties, and may be potential candidates for NASH therapy. To understand the molecular mechanism, Sprague Dawley rats were used to create NASH models and received different treatments. Liver tissues were examined using HE (hematoxylin and eosin) and ORO (Oil Red O) stain, and serum biochemical indices were measured. The levels of peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor (PPAR)-α, sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c (SREBP-1c), Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA-3), inflammatory cytokines and apoptosis biomarkers in liver tissues were measured by qRT-PCR and Western blot. HE and ORO analysis indicated that the hepatocytes were seriously damaged with more and larger lipid droplets in NASH models while BP reduced the number and size of lipid droplets ( p < 0.05). Meanwhile, BP increased the levels of SOD (superoxide dismutase), GSH (reduced glutathione) and HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), and reduced the levels of AST (aspartate aminotransferase), ALT (alanine aminotransferase), TG (triglycerides), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and MDA (malondialdehyde) in NASH models ( p < 0.05). BP increased the level of PPAR-α (Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α), and reduced the levels of SREBP-1c (sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c) and PNPLA-3 (Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3) ( p < 0.05). BP reduced hepatic inflammation and apoptosis by affecting IL-6 (interleukin 6), TNF-α (Tumor necrosis factor α), caspase-3 and Bcl-2 in NASH models. Furthermore, PPAR-α inhibitor increased the level of SREBP-1c and PNPLA-3. Therefore, BP prevents NASH progression by affecting SREBP-1c/PNPLA-3

  10. TLR9 is up-regulated in human and murine NASH: pivotal role in inflammatory recruitment and cell survival.

    PubMed

    Mridha, Auvro R; Haczeyni, Fahrettin; Yeh, Matthew M; Haigh, W Geoffrey; Ioannou, George N; Barn, Vanessa; Ajamieh, Hussam; Adams, Leon; Hamdorf, Jeffrey M; Teoh, Narci C; Farrell, Geoffrey C

    2017-08-15

    Background and aims : TLR9 deletion protects against steatohepatitis due to choline-amino acid depletion and high-fat diet. We measured TLR9 in human non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) livers, and tested whether TLR9 mediates inflammatory recruitment in three murine models of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods : We assayed TLR mRNA in liver biopsies from bariatric surgery patients. Wild-type ( Wt ), appetite-dysregulated Alms1 mutant (foz/foz), Tlr9 -/- , and Tlr9 -/- foz/foz C57BL6/J mice and bone marrow (BM) chimeras were fed 0.2% cholesterol, high-fat, high sucrose (atherogenic[Ath]) diet or chow, and NAFLD activity score (NAS)/NASH pathology, macrophage/neutrophil infiltration, cytokines/chemokines, and cell death markers measured in livers. Results : Hepatic TLR9 and TLR4 mRNA were increased in human NASH but not simple steatosis, and in Ath-fed foz/foz mice with metabolic syndrome-related NASH. Ath-fed Tlr9 -/- mice showed simple steatosis and less Th1 cytokines than Wt. Tlr9 -/- foz/foz mice were obese and diabetic, but necroinflammatory changes were less severe than Tlr9 +/+ .foz/foz mice. TLR9-expressing myeloid cells were critical for Th1 cytokine production in BM chimeras. BM macrophages from Tlr9 -/- mice showed M2 polarization, were resistant to M1 activation by necrotic hepatocytes/other pro-inflammatory triggers, and provoked less neutrophil chemotaxis than Wt Livers from Ath-fed Tlr9 -/- mice appeared to exhibit more markers of necroptosis [receptor interacting protein kinase (RIP)-1, RIP-3, and mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein (MLKL)] than Wt , and ∼25% showed portal foci of mononuclear cells unrelated to NASH pathology. Our novel clinical data and studies in overnutrition models, including those with diabetes and metabolic syndrome, clarify TLR9 as a pro-inflammatory trigger in NASH. This response is mediated via M1-macrophages and neutrophil chemotaxis. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Portland Press Limited on

  11. Geometry of Cournot-Nash Equilibrium with Application to Commons and Anticommons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    D'Agata, Antonio

    2010-01-01

    The author develops a simple geometric analysis of Cournot-Nash equilibrium in the price-quantity space by exploiting the economic content of the first-order condition. The approach makes it clear that strategic interdependency in oligopoly originates from externalities among producers. This explains why cartels are unstable and casts oligopoly…

  12. Challenges and Management of Liver Cirrhosis: Practical Issues in the Therapy of Patients with Cirrhosis due to NAFLD and NASH.

    PubMed

    Traussnigg, Stefan; Kienbacher, Christian; Halilbasic, Emina; Rechling, Christian; Kazemi-Shirazi, Lili; Hofer, Harald; Munda, Petra; Trauner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome and comprises a liver disease spectrum ranging from steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with risk of progression to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Associated metabolic conditions and comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases are common and require concerted management. Adiponutrin (PNPLA3) variants may help to identify NAFLD patients at higher risk for liver disease progression towards advanced fibrosis and HCC. The therapeutic options in NAFLD/NASH include lifestyle modification, pharmacological treatment, bariatric surgery for patients with morbid obesity and treatment of complications of liver cirrhosis and HCC, including liver transplantation. Insulin sensitizers and antioxidative treatment strategies with vitamin E are among the best-established pharmacological approaches, but both drugs have long-term safety issues and there is limited evidence in cirrhotic patients. Treatment of concomitant/underlying metabolic conditions with statins or metformin may also have beneficial effects on portal hypertension, complications of liver cirrhosis and HCC prevention. The bile acid receptor FXR may be a promising novel therapeutic target for the treatment of NAFLD/NASH, fibrosis and portal hypertension, but the prognostic implications of associated changes in low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol require further studies. Morbidly obese NASH patients can benefit from bariatric surgery which may reduce liver fibrosis but carries a risk of decompensation in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. When carefully selected, patients with NASH cirrhosis undergoing liver transplantation have a good outcome. This review summarizes recent progress in the management of patients with liver cirrhosis due to NASH. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  13. Cholesterol-lowering drugs cause dissolution of cholesterol crystals and disperse Kupffer cell crown-like structures during resolution of NASH

    PubMed Central

    Ioannou, George N.; Van Rooyen, Derrick M.; Savard, Christopher; Haigh, W. Geoffrey; Yeh, Matthew M.; Teoh, Narci C.; Farrell, Geoffrey C.

    2015-01-01

    Cholesterol crystals form within hepatocyte lipid droplets in human and experimental nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and are the focus of crown-like structures (CLSs) of activated Kupffer cells (KCs). Obese, diabetic Alms1 mutant (foz/foz) mice were a fed high-fat (23%) diet containing 0.2% cholesterol for 16 weeks and then assigned to four intervention groups for 8 weeks: a) vehicle control, b) ezetimibe (5 mg/kg/day), c) atorvastatin (20 mg/kg/day), or d) ezetimibe and atorvastatin. Livers of vehicle-treated mice developed fibrosing NASH with abundant cholesterol crystallization within lipid droplets calculated to extend over 3.3% (SD, 2.2%) of liver surface area. Hepatocyte lipid droplets with prominent cholesterol crystallization were surrounded by TNFα-positive (activated) KCs forming CLSs (≥3 per high-power field). KCs that formed CLSs stained positive for NLRP3, implicating activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome in response to cholesterol crystals. In contrast, foz/foz mice treated with ezetimibe and atorvastatin showed near-complete resolution of cholesterol crystals [0.01% (SD, 0.02%) of surface area] and CLSs (0 per high-power field), with amelioration of fibrotic NASH. Ezetimibe or atorvastatin alone had intermediate effects on cholesterol crystallization, CLSs, and NASH. These findings are consistent with a causative link between exposure of hepatocytes and KCs to cholesterol crystals and with the development of NASH possibly mediated by NLRP3 activation. PMID:25520429

  14. Clinical Model for NASH and Advanced Fibrosis in Adult Patients With Diabetes and NAFLD: Guidelines for Referral in NAFLD

    PubMed Central

    Bazick, Jessica; Donithan, Michele; Neuschwander-Tetri, Brent A.; Kleiner, David; Brunt, Elizabeth M.; Wilson, Laura; Doo, Ed; Lavine, Joel; Tonascia, James

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Approximately 18 million people in the U.S. have coexisting type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is not known who among these patients has nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, we aimed to determine factors that are associated with both NASH and advanced fibrosis in patients with diabetes and NAFLD in order to identify who should be prioritized for referral to a hepatologist for further diagnostic evaluation and treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study was derived from the NASH Clinical Research Network studies and included 1,249 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (including a model development cohort of 346 patients and an independent validation cohort of 100 patients with type 2 diabetes as defined by the American Diabetes Association criteria). Outcome measures were presence of NASH or advanced fibrosis (stage 3 or 4) using cross-validated, by jackknife method, multivariable-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and 95% CI. RESULTS The mean ± SD age and BMI of patients with diabetes and NAFLD was 52.5 ± 10.3 years and 35.8 ± 6.8 kg/m2, respectively. The prevalence of NASH and advanced fibrosis was 69.2% and 41.0%, respectively. The model for NASH included white race, BMI, waist, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin, HbA1c, HOMA of insulin resistance, and ferritin with an AUROC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.84, P = 0.007). The specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive values (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) were 90.0%, 56.8%, 47.7%, and 93.2%, respectively, and the model correctly classified 67% of patients as having NASH. The model for predicting advanced fibrosis included age, Hispanic ethnicity, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, hypertension, ALT-to-AST ratio, alkaline phosphatase, isolated abnormal alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin (total and direct), globulin, albumin, serum insulin, hematocrit

  15. Characterizing the Nash equilibria of three-player Bayesian quantum games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solmeyer, Neal; Balu, Radhakrishnan

    2017-05-01

    Quantum games with incomplete information can be studied within a Bayesian framework. We analyze games quantized within the EWL framework [Eisert, Wilkens, and Lewenstein, Phys Rev. Lett. 83, 3077 (1999)]. We solve for the Nash equilibria of a variety of two-player quantum games and compare the results to the solutions of the corresponding classical games. We then analyze Bayesian games where there is uncertainty about the player types in two-player conflicting interest games. The solutions to the Bayesian games are found to have a phase diagram-like structure where different equilibria exist in different parameter regions, depending both on the amount of uncertainty and the degree of entanglement. We find that in games where a Pareto-optimal solution is not a Nash equilibrium, it is possible for the quantized game to have an advantage over the classical version. In addition, we analyze the behavior of the solutions as the strategy choices approach an unrestricted operation. We find that some games have a continuum of solutions, bounded by the solutions of a simpler restricted game. A deeper understanding of Bayesian quantum game theory could lead to novel quantum applications in a multi-agent setting.

  16. Role of white adipose lipolysis in the development of NASH induced by methionine-and choline-deficient diet

    PubMed Central

    Tanaka, Naoki; Takahashi, Shogo; Fang, Zhong-Ze; Matsubara, Tsutomu; Krausz, Kristopher W.; Qu, Aijuan; Gonzalez, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Methionine- and choline-deficient diet (MCD) is a model for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in rodents. However, the mechanism of NASH development by dietary methionine/choline deficiency remains undetermined. To elucidate the early metabolic changes associated with MCD-NASH, serum metabolomic analysis was performed using mice treated with MCD and control diet for three days and one week, revealing significant increases in oleic and linoleic acids after MCD treatment. These increases were correlated with reduced body weight and white adipose tissue (WAT) mass, increased phosphorylation of hormone-sensitive lipase, and up-regulation of genes encoding carboxylesterase 3 and β2-adrenergic receptor in WAT, indicating accelerated lipolysis in adipocytes. The changes in serum fatty acids and WAT by MCD treatment were reversed by methionine supplementation, and similar alterations were detected in mice fed a methionine-deficient diet (MD), thus demonstrating that dietary methionine deficiency enhances lipolysis in WAT. MD treatment decreased glucose and increased fibroblast growth factor 21 in serum, thus exhibiting a similar metabolic phenotype as the fasting response. Comparison between MCD and choline-deficient diet (CD) treatments suggested that the addition of MD-induced metabolic alterations, such as WAT lipolysis, to CD-induced hepatic steatosis promotes liver injury. Collectively, these results demonstrate an important role for dietary methionine deficiency and WAT lipolysis in the development of MCD-NASH. PMID:25178843

  17. Efficiency and formalism of quantum games

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lee, C.F.; Johnson, Neil F.

    We show that quantum games are more efficient than classical games and provide a saturated upper bound for this efficiency. We also demonstrate that the set of finite classical games is a strict subset of the set of finite quantum games. Our analysis is based on a rigorous formulation of quantum games, from which quantum versions of the minimax theorem and the Nash equilibrium theorem can be deduced.

  18. The Combination of Blueberry Juice and Probiotics Ameliorate Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) by Affecting SREBP-1c/PNPLA-3 Pathway via PPAR-α

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Tingting; Zhu, Juanjuan; Zhu, Lili; Cheng, Mingliang

    2017-01-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is liver inflammation and a major threat to public health. Several pharmaceutical agents have been used for NASH therapy but their high-rate side effects limit the use. Blueberry juice and probiotics (BP) have anti-inflammation and antibacterial properties, and may be potential candidates for NASH therapy. To understand the molecular mechanism, Sprague Dawley rats were used to create NASH models and received different treatments. Liver tissues were examined using HE (hematoxylin and eosin) and ORO (Oil Red O) stain, and serum biochemical indices were measured. The levels of peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor (PPAR)-α, sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c (SREBP-1c), Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA-3), inflammatory cytokines and apoptosis biomarkers in liver tissues were measured by qRT-PCR and Western blot. HE and ORO analysis indicated that the hepatocytes were seriously damaged with more and larger lipid droplets in NASH models while BP reduced the number and size of lipid droplets (p < 0.05). Meanwhile, BP increased the levels of SOD (superoxide dismutase), GSH (reduced glutathione) and HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), and reduced the levels of AST (aspartate aminotransferase), ALT (alanine aminotransferase), TG (triglycerides), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and MDA (malondialdehyde) in NASH models (p < 0.05). BP increased the level of PPAR-α (Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α), and reduced the levels of SREBP-1c (sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c) and PNPLA-3 (Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3) (p < 0.05). BP reduced hepatic inflammation and apoptosis by affecting IL-6 (interleukin 6), TNF-α (Tumor necrosis factor α), caspase-3 and Bcl-2 in NASH models. Furthermore, PPAR-α inhibitor increased the level of SREBP-1c and PNPLA-3. Therefore, BP prevents NASH progression by affecting SREBP-1c/PNPLA-3 pathway

  19. A longitudinal study of whole body, tissue, and cellular physiology in a mouse model of fibrosing NASH with high fidelity to the human condition.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Anuradha; Abdullah, Tasduq Sheikh; Mounajjed, Taofic; Hartono, Stella; McConico, Andrea; White, Thomas; LeBrasseur, Nathan; Lanza, Ian; Nair, Sreekumaran; Gores, Gregory; Charlton, Michael

    2017-06-01

    The sequence of events that lead to inflammation and fibrosing nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is incompletely understood. Hence, we investigated the chronology of whole body, tissue, and cellular events that occur during the evolution of diet-induced NASH. Male C57Bl/6 mice were assigned to a fast-food (FF; high calorie, high cholesterol, high fructose) or standard-chow (SC) diet over a period of 36 wk. Liver histology, body composition, mitochondrial respiration, metabolic rate, gene expression, and hepatic lipid content were analyzed. Insulin resistance [homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)] increased 10-fold after 4 wk. Fibrosing NASH was fully established by 16 wk. Total hepatic lipids increased by 4 wk and remained two- to threefold increased throughout. Hepatic triglycerides declined from sixfold increase at 8 wk to threefold increase by 36 wk. In contrast, hepatic cholesterol levels steadily increased from baseline at 8 wk to twofold by 36 wk. The hepatic immune cell population altered over time with macrophages persisting beyond 16 wk. Mitochondrial oxygen flux rates of FF mice diet were uniformly lower with all the tested substrates (13-276 pmol·s -1 ·ml -1 per unit citrate synthase) than SC mice (17-394 pmol·s -1 ·ml -1 per unit citrate synthase) and was accompanied by decreased mitochondrial:nuclear gene copy number ratios after 4 wk. Metabolic rate was lower in FF mice. Mitochondrial glutathione was significantly decreased at 24 wk in FF mice. Expression of dismutases and catalase was also decreased in FF mice. The evolution of NASH in the FF diet-induced model is multiphasic, particularly in terms of hepatic lipid composition. Insulin resistance precedes hepatic inflammation and fibrosis. Mitochondrial dysfunction and depletion occur after the histological features of NASH are apparent. Collectively, these observations provide a unique overview of the sequence of changes that coevolve with the histological evolution of

  20. Clinical Model for NASH and Advanced Fibrosis in Adult Patients With Diabetes and NAFLD: Guidelines for Referral in NAFLD.

    PubMed

    Bazick, Jessica; Donithan, Michele; Neuschwander-Tetri, Brent A; Kleiner, David; Brunt, Elizabeth M; Wilson, Laura; Doo, Ed; Lavine, Joel; Tonascia, James; Loomba, Rohit

    2015-07-01

    Approximately 18 million people in the U.S. have coexisting type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is not known who among these patients has nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, we aimed to determine factors that are associated with both NASH and advanced fibrosis in patients with diabetes and NAFLD in order to identify who should be prioritized for referral to a hepatologist for further diagnostic evaluation and treatment. This study was derived from the NASH Clinical Research Network studies and included 1,249 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (including a model development cohort of 346 patients and an independent validation cohort of 100 patients with type 2 diabetes as defined by the American Diabetes Association criteria). Outcome measures were presence of NASH or advanced fibrosis (stage 3 or 4) using cross-validated, by jackknife method, multivariable-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and 95% CI. The mean ± SD age and BMI of patients with diabetes and NAFLD was 52.5 ± 10.3 years and 35.8 ± 6.8 kg/m(2), respectively. The prevalence of NASH and advanced fibrosis was 69.2% and 41.0%, respectively. The model for NASH included white race, BMI, waist, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin, HbA1c, HOMA of insulin resistance, and ferritin with an AUROC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.84, P = 0.007). The specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive values (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) were 90.0%, 56.8%, 47.7%, and 93.2%, respectively, and the model correctly classified 67% of patients as having NASH. The model for predicting advanced fibrosis included age, Hispanic ethnicity, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, hypertension, ALT-to-AST ratio, alkaline phosphatase, isolated abnormal alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin (total and direct), globulin, albumin, serum insulin, hematocrit, international normalized ratio, and platelet count with

  1. The Scale Effects of Engineered Inlets in Urban Hydrologic Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevade, L.; Montalto, F. A.

    2017-12-01

    Runoff from urban surfaces is typically captured by engineered inlets for conveyance to receiving water bodies or treatment plants. Normative hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling tools generally assume 100% efficient inlets, though observations by the authors suggest this assumption is invalid. The discrepancy is key since the more efficiently the inlet, the more linearly hydrologic processes scale with catchment area. Using several years of remote sensing, the observed efficiencies of urban green infrastructure (GI) facility inlets in New York City are presented, as a function of the morphological and climatological properties of their catchments and events. The rainfall-runoff response is modeled with EPA to assess the degree of inaccuracy that the assumption of efficient inlets introduces in block and neighborhood-scale simulations. Next, an algorithm is presented that incorporates inlet efficiency into SWMM and the improved predictive skill evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results are used to evaluate the extent to which decentralized green stormwater management facilities positioned at the low points of urban catchments ought to be designed with larger capacities than their counterparts located further upslope.

  2. Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle.

    PubMed

    Deo, Ravinesh C; Downs, Nathan; Parisi, Alfio V; Adamowski, Jan F; Quilty, John M

    2017-05-01

    Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θ s ) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500-1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θ s as the predictor data was developed. ELM's performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott's Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E NS ), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model's performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott's Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model

  3. A long-acting FGF21 alleviates hepatic steatosis and inflammation in NASH mice partly through an FGF21- adiponectin- IL17A axis.

    PubMed

    Bao, Lichen; Yin, Jun; Gao, Wen; Wang, Qun; Yao, Wenbing; Gao, Xiangdong

    2018-06-02

    NASH is the most severe form of NAFLD and is a serious public health problem around the world. There are currently no approved treatments for NASH. FGF21 has recently emerged as a promising drug candidate for metabolic diseases. However, the challenges in developing FGF21 as a novel medicine include its short plasma half-life and poor drug-like properties. Here, we explored the therapeutic effects of PsTag600-FGF21, an engineered long-acting FGF21 fusion protein, in NASH mice and revealed some of the mechanisms responsible for this activity. A long-acting FGF21 was prepared by genetic fusion with a 600 residues polypeptide (PsTag600). We conducted our studies using a choline-deficient high-fat diet (CD-HFD) induced NASH mouse model. In NASH mice, the effects on body weight, insulin sensitivity, inflammation and levels of hormones and metabolites were studied first. We further investigated whether PsTag600-FGF21 attenuated inflammation through the Th17-IL17A axis and the associated mechanisms. PsTag600-FGF21 dose-dependently reduced body weight, blood glucose, insulin and lipid levels and reversed hepatic steatosis. PsTag600-FGF21 enhanced fatty acid activation and mitochondrial β-oxidation in the liver. The profound reduction in hepatic inflammation in NASH mice was associated with PsTag600-FGF21 inhibition of IL17A expression in Th17 cells. Furthermore, PsTag600-FGF21 depended on adiponectin to exert its suppression effects on Th17 cell differentiation and IL17A expression. Our data begin to uncover the indirect mechanism by which PsTag600-FGF21 suppresses hepatic inflammation and further suggest that PsTag600-FGF21 could be an effective approach in NASH treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  5. Nash Equilibria in Theory of Reasoned Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almeida, Leando; Cruz, José; Ferreira, Helena; Pinto, Alberto Adrego

    2009-08-01

    Game theory and Decision Theory have been applied to many different areas such as Physics, Economics, Biology, etc. In its application to Psychology, we introduce, in the literature, a Game Theoretical Model of Planned Behavior or Reasoned Action by establishing an analogy between two specific theories. In this study we take in account that individual decision-making is an outcome of a process where group decisions can determine individual probabilistic behavior. Using Game Theory concepts, we describe how intentions can be transformed in behavior and according to the Nash Equilibrium, this process will correspond to the best individual decision/response taking in account the collective response. This analysis can be extended to several examples based in the Game Theoretical Model of Planned Behavior or Reasoned Action.

  6. Method and system for efficiently searching an encoded vector index

    DOEpatents

    Bui, Thuan Quang; Egan, Randy Lynn; Kathmann, Kevin James

    2001-09-04

    Method and system aspects for efficiently searching an encoded vector index are provided. The aspects include the translation of a search query into a candidate bitmap, and the mapping of data from the candidate bitmap into a search result bitmap according to entry values in the encoded vector index. Further, the translation includes the setting of a bit in the candidate bitmap for each entry in a symbol table that corresponds to candidate of the search query. Also included in the mapping is the identification of a bit value in the candidate bitmap pointed to by an entry in an encoded vector.

  7. Nash Equilibrium of Social-Learning Agents in a Restless Multiarmed Bandit Game.

    PubMed

    Nakayama, Kazuaki; Hisakado, Masato; Mori, Shintaro

    2017-05-16

    We study a simple model for social-learning agents in a restless multiarmed bandit (rMAB). The bandit has one good arm that changes to a bad one with a certain probability. Each agent stochastically selects one of the two methods, random search (individual learning) or copying information from other agents (social learning), using which he/she seeks the good arm. Fitness of an agent is the probability to know the good arm in the steady state of the agent system. In this model, we explicitly construct the unique Nash equilibrium state and show that the corresponding strategy for each agent is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the sense of Thomas. It is shown that the fitness of an agent with ESS is superior to that of an asocial learner when the success probability of social learning is greater than a threshold determined from the probability of success of individual learning, the probability of change of state of the rMAB, and the number of agents. The ESS Nash equilibrium is a solution to Rogers' paradox.

  8. Screening for therapeutic trials and treatment indication in clinical practice: MACK-3, a new blood test for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH.

    PubMed

    Boursier, J; Anty, R; Vonghia, L; Moal, V; Vanwolleghem, T; Canivet, C M; Michalak, S; Bonnafous, S; Michielsen, P; Oberti, F; Iannelli, A; Van Gaal, L; Patouraux, S; Blanchet, O; Verrijken, A; Gual, P; Rousselet, M-C; Driessen, A; Hunault, G; Bertrais, S; Tran, A; Calès, P; Francque, S

    2018-05-01

    The composite histological endpoint comprising nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and NAFLD activity score ≥4 and advanced fibrosis (F ≥ 2) ("fibrotic NASH") is becoming an important diagnostic target in NAFLD: it is currently used to select patients for inclusion in phase III therapeutic trials and will ultimately be used to indicate treatment in clinical practice once the new drugs are approved. To develop a new blood test specifically dedicated for this new diagnostic target of interest. Eight Hundred and forty-six biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from three centres (Angers, Nice, Antwerp) were randomised into derivation and validation sets. The blood fibrosis tests BARD, NFS and FIB4 had poor accuracy for fibrotic NASH with respective AUROC: 0.566 ± 0.023, 0.654 ± 0.023, 0.732 ± 0.021. In the derivation set, fibrotic NASH was independently predicted by AST, HOMA and CK18; all three were combined in the new blood test MACK-3 (hoMa, Ast, CK18) for which 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity cut-offs were calculated. In the validation set, MACK-3 had a significantly higher AUROC (0.847 ± 0.030, P ≤ 0.002) than blood fibrosis tests. Using liver biopsy in the grey zone between the two cut-offs (36.0% of the patients), MACK-3 provided excellent accuracy for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH with 93.3% well-classified patients, sensitivity: 90.0%, specificity: 94.2%, positive predictive value: 81.8% and negative predictive value: 97.0%. The new blood test MACK-3 accurately diagnoses fibrotic NASH. This new test will facilitate patient screening and inclusion in NAFLD therapeutic trials and will enable the identification of patients who will benefit from the treatments once approved. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Design and rationale for a real-world observational cohort of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: The TARGET-NASH study.

    PubMed

    Barritt, A S; Gitlin, Norman; Klein, Samuel; Lok, Anna S; Loomba, Rohit; Malahias, Laura; Powell, Margaret; Vos, Miriam B; Weiss, L Michael; Cusi, Kenneth; Neuschwander-Tetri, Brent A; Sanyal, Arun

    2017-10-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent and can lead to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and end-stage liver disease. NAFLD comprises the spectrum from simple steatosis (nonalcoholic fatty liver, NAFL), to steatosis with inflammation (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH). Current primary therapy recommended for NAFLD is weight loss induced by lifestyle modification. The difficulty in achieving this has led to robust pharmacological therapy development. While new drugs may show efficacy in selected phase II/III clinical trial populations, their real-world effectiveness is unknown. TARGET-NASH is a 5-year, longitudinal, observational study of patients with NAFLD designed to evaluate the effectiveness of clinical practice interventions and provide practical information unobtainable in registration trials. A biological specimen repository is included in TARGET-NASH for translational studies of genomics and biomarkers of disease activity. Patients are enrolling at adult and pediatric sites representing multiple specialties. All patients being managed for NAFLD are eligible, whereas those in other NASH registries or clinical trials will be excluded. Enrolled patients range in age from 6 and up and will have 3years of clinical data reviewed. Patient comorbidities, concomitant medications, disease progression and off-label interventions will be assessed, and adverse outcomes, monitored. Confirming the use, safety and effectiveness of NAFLD interventions in children and adults and establishing pragmatic methods of assessing disease progression under real-world conditions are key study outcomes. Ultimately, TARGET-NASH will establish a large, diverse registry of NAFLD patients at academic and community practices to be leveraged to improve health and reduce development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of the APEX Model to Simulate Runoff Quality from Agricultural Fields in the Southern Region of the United States.

    PubMed

    Ramirez-Avila, John J; Radcliffe, David E; Osmond, Deanna; Bolster, Carl; Sharpley, Andrew; Ortega-Achury, Sandra L; Forsberg, Adam; Oldham, J Larry

    2017-11-01

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model has been widely applied to assess phosphorus (P) loss in runoff water and has been proposed as a model to support practical decisions regarding agricultural P management, as well as a model to evaluate tools such as the P Index. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of APEX to simulate P losses from agricultural systems to determine its potential use for refinement or replacement of the P Index in the southern region of the United States. Uncalibrated and calibrated APEX model predictions were compared against measured water quality data from row crop fields in North Carolina and Mississippi and pasture fields in Arkansas and Georgia. Calibrated models satisfactorily predicted event-based surface runoff volumes at all sites (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] > 0.47, |percent bias [PBIAS]| < 34) except Arkansas (NSE < 0.11, |PBIAS| < 50) but did not satisfactory simulate sediment, dissolved P, or total P losses in runoff water. The APEX model tended to underestimate dissolved and total P losses from fields where manure was surface applied. The model also overestimated sediments and total P loads during irrigation events. We conclude that the capability of APEX to predict sediment and P losses is limited, and consequently so is the potential for using APEX to make P management recommendations to improve P Indices in the southern United States. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  11. Comparison of infiltration models in NIT Kurukshetra campus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Balraj; Sihag, Parveen; Singh, Karan

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the present investigation is to evaluate the performance of infiltration models used to calculate the infiltration rate of the soils. Ten different locations were chosen to measure the infiltration rate in NIT Kurukshetra. The instrument used for the experimentation was double ring infiltrometer. Some of the popular infiltration models like Horton's, Philip's, Modified Philip's and Green-Ampt were fitted with infiltration test data and performance of the models was determined using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (C.C) and Root mean square error (RMSE) criteria. The result suggests that Modified Philip's model is the most accurate model where values of C.C, NSE and RMSE vary from 0.9947-0.9999, 0.9877-0.9998 to 0.1402-0.6913 (mm/h), respectively. Thus, this model can be used to synthetically produce infiltration data in the absence of infiltration data under the same conditions.

  12. HCV genotype 3 and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCCA)-IgM are independently associated with histological features of NASH in HCV-infected patients.

    PubMed

    Martini, A; Fattovich, G; Guido, M; Bugianesi, E; Biasiolo, A; Ieluzzi, D; Gallotta, A; Fassina, G; Merkel, C; Gatta, A; Negro, F; Pontisso, P

    2015-10-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) enhances the risk of progressive liver disease. In chronic hepatitis C (CHC), liver steatosis is frequent, especially in genotype 3, but its clinical significance is debated. As squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCCA)-IgM has been associated with advanced liver disease and risk of tumour development, we evaluated its occurrence in CHC and the possible relation with NASH at liver biopsy. Using a validated ELISA, serum SCCA-IgM was measured in 91 patients with CHC at the time of liver biopsy performed before antiviral treatment, at the end of treatment and 6 months thereafter, and in 93 HCV-negative patients with histological diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, as controls. SCCA-IgM was detected in 33% of CHC patients and in 4% of controls. This biomarker was found more elevated in CHC patients with histological NASH, and at multivariate analysis, SCCA-IgM and HCV genotype 3 were independently associated with NASH [OR (95% CI): 6.94 (1.21-40) and 27.02 (4.44-166.6)]. As predictors of NASH, HCV genotype 3 and SCCA-IgM had a specificity and a sensitivity of 97% and 44%, and of 95% and 27%, respectively. PPV and NPV were 80% and 86% for HCV genotype 3 vs 73% and 72% for SCCA-IgM. In patients with sustained virologic response to therapy, SCCA-IgM levels decreased significantly, while these remained unchanged in nonresponders. In conclusion, SCCA-IgM is detectable in one-third of patients with CHC and significantly correlates with histological NASH. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Obeticholic acid raises LDL-cholesterol and reduces HDL-cholesterol in the Diet-Induced NASH (DIN) hamster model.

    PubMed

    Briand, François; Brousseau, Emmanuel; Quinsat, Marjolaine; Burcelin, Rémy; Sulpice, Thierry

    2018-01-05

    The use of rat and mouse models limits the translation to humans for developing novel drugs targeting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Obeticholic acid (OCA) illustrates this limitation since its dyslipidemic effect in humans cannot be observed in these rodents. Conversely, Golden Syrian hamsters have a lipoprotein metabolism mimicking human dyslipidemia since it does express the cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP). We therefore developed a Diet-Induced NASH (DIN) hamster model and evaluated the impact of OCA. Compared with chow fed controls, hamsters fed for 20 weeks with a free-choice (FC) diet, developed obesity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia and NASH (microvesicular steatosis, inflammation, hepatocyte ballooning and perisinusoidal to bridging fibrosis). After 20 weeks of diet, FC fed hamsters were treated without or with obeticholic acid (15mg/kg/day) for 5 weeks. Although a non-significant trend towards higher dietary caloric intake was observed, OCA significantly lowered body weight after 5 weeks of treatment. OCA significantly increased CETP activity and LDL-C levels by 20% and 27%, and reduced HDL-C levels by 20%. OCA blunted hepatic gene expression of Cyp7a1 and Cyp8b1 and reduced fecal bile acids mass excretion by 64% (P < 0.05). Hamsters treated with OCA showed a trend towards higher scavenger receptor Class B type I (SR-BI) and lower LDL-receptor hepatic protein expression. OCA reduced NAS score for inflammation (P < 0.01) and total NAS score, although not significantly. Compared to mouse and rat models, the DIN hamster replicates benefits and side effects of OCA as observed in humans, and should be useful for evaluating novel drugs targeting NASH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Wavelet-based multiscale performance analysis: An approach to assess and improve hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rathinasamy, Maheswaran; Khosa, Rakesh; Adamowski, Jan; ch, Sudheer; Partheepan, G.; Anand, Jatin; Narsimlu, Boini

    2014-12-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological processes are spread across different time scales and, as such, the performance of hydrological models cannot be estimated reliably from global performance measures that assign a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. Accordingly, it is important to analyze model performance at different time scales. Wavelets have been used extensively in the area of hydrological modeling for multiscale analysis, and have been shown to be very reliable and useful in understanding dynamics across time scales and as these evolve in time. In this paper, a wavelet-based multiscale performance measure for hydrological models is proposed and tested (i.e., Multiscale Nash-Sutcliffe Criteria and Multiscale Normalized Root Mean Square Error). The main advantage of this method is that it provides a quantitative measure of model performance across different time scales. In the proposed approach, model and observed time series are decomposed using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (known as the à trous wavelet transform), and performance measures of the model are obtained at each time scale. The applicability of the proposed method was explored using various case studies-both real as well as synthetic. The synthetic case studies included various kinds of errors (e.g., timing error, under and over prediction of high and low flows) in outputs from a hydrologic model. The real time case studies investigated in this study included simulation results of both the process-based Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, as well as statistical models, namely the Coupled Wavelet-Volterra (WVC), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods. For the SWAT model, data from Wainganga and Sind Basin (India) were used, while for the Wavelet Volterra, ANN and ARMA models, data from the Cauvery River Basin (India) and Fraser River (Canada) were used. The study also explored the effect of the

  15. High-fat, high-fructose, high-cholesterol feeding causes severe NASH and cecal microbiota dysbiosis in juvenile Ossabaw swine.

    PubMed

    Panasevich, M R; Meers, G M; Linden, M A; Booth, F W; Perfield, J W; Fritsche, K L; Wankhade, Umesh D; Chintapalli, Sree V; Shankar, K; Ibdah, J A; Rector, R S

    2018-01-01

    Pediatric obesity and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are on the rise in industrialized countries, yet our ability to mechanistically examine this relationship is limited by the lack of a suitable higher animal models. Here, we examined the effects of high-fat, high-fructose corn syrup, high-cholesterol Western-style diet (WD)-induced obesity on NASH and cecal microbiota dysbiosis in juvenile Ossabaw swine. Juvenile female Ossabaw swine (5 wk old) were fed WD (43.0% fat; 17.8% high-fructose corn syrup; 2% cholesterol) or low-fat diet (CON/lean; 10.5% fat) for 16 wk ( n = 6 each) or 36 wk ( n = 4 each). WD-fed pigs developed obesity, dyslipidemia, and systemic insulin resistance compared with CON pigs. In addition, obese WD-fed pigs developed severe NASH, with hepatic steatosis, hepatocyte ballooning, inflammatory cell infiltration, and fibrosis after 16 wk, with further exacerbation of histological inflammation and fibrosis after 36 wk of WD feeding. WD feeding also resulted in robust cecal microbiota changes including increased relative abundances of families and genera in Proteobacteria ( P < 0.05) (i.e., Enterobacteriaceae, Succinivibrionaceae, and Succinivibrio) and LPS-containing Desulfovibrionaceae and Desulfovibrio and a greater ( P < 0.05) predicted microbial metabolic function for LPS biosynthesis, LPS biosynthesis proteins, and peptidoglycan synthesis compared with CON-fed pigs. Overall, juvenile Ossabaw swine fed a high-fat, high-fructose, high-cholesterol diet develop obesity and severe microbiota dysbiosis with a proinflammatory signature and a NASH phenotype directly relevant to the pediatric/adolescent and young adult population.

  16. Foraging swarms as Nash equilibria of dynamic games.

    PubMed

    Özgüler, Arif Bülent; Yildiz, Aykut

    2014-06-01

    The question of whether foraging swarms can form as a result of a noncooperative game played by individuals is shown here to have an affirmative answer. A dynamic game played by N agents in 1-D motion is introduced and models, for instance, a foraging ant colony. Each agent controls its velocity to minimize its total work done in a finite time interval. The game is shown to have a unique Nash equilibrium under two different foraging location specifications, and both equilibria display many features of a foraging swarm behavior observed in biological swarms. Explicit expressions are derived for pairwise distances between individuals of the swarm, swarm size, and swarm center location during foraging.

  17. Maximizing Efficiency and Reducing Robotic Surgery Costs Using the NASA Task Load Index.

    PubMed

    Walters, Carrie; Webb, Paula J

    2017-10-01

    Perioperative leaders at our facility were struggling to meet efficiency targets for robotic surgery procedures while also maintaining the satisfaction of the surgical team. We developed a human resources time and motion study tool and used it in conjunction with the NASA Task Load Index to observe and analyze the required workload of personnel assigned to 25 robotic surgery procedures. The time and motion study identified opportunities to enlist the help of nonlicensed support personnel to ensure safe patient care and improve OR efficiency. Using the NASA Task Load Index demonstrated that high temporal, effort, and physical demands existed for personnel assisting with and performing robotic surgery. We believe that this process could be used to develop cost-effective staffing models, resulting in safe and efficient care for all surgical patients. Copyright © 2017 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The Rorschach Perceptual-Thinking Index (PTI): An Examination of Reliability, Validity, and Diagnostic Efficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilsenroth, Mark J.; Eudell-Simmons, Erin M.; DeFife, Jared A.; Charnas, Jocelyn W.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates the reliability, validity, and diagnostic efficiency of the Rorschach Perceptual-Thinking Index (PTI) in relation to the accurate identification of psychotic disorder (PTD) patients. The PTI is a revision of the Rorschach Schizophrenia Index (SCZI), designed to achieve several criteria, including an increase in the…

  19. Efficient statistical tests to compare Youden index: accounting for contingency correlation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fangyao; Xue, Yuqiang; Tan, Ming T; Chen, Pingyan

    2015-04-30

    Youden index is widely utilized in studies evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests and performance of predictive, prognostic, or risk models. However, both one and two independent sample tests on Youden index have been derived ignoring the dependence (association) between sensitivity and specificity, resulting in potentially misleading findings. Besides, paired sample test on Youden index is currently unavailable. This article develops efficient statistical inference procedures for one sample, independent, and paired sample tests on Youden index by accounting for contingency correlation, namely associations between sensitivity and specificity and paired samples typically represented in contingency tables. For one and two independent sample tests, the variances are estimated by Delta method, and the statistical inference is based on the central limit theory, which are then verified by bootstrap estimates. For paired samples test, we show that the estimated covariance of the two sensitivities and specificities can be represented as a function of kappa statistic so the test can be readily carried out. We then show the remarkable accuracy of the estimated variance using a constrained optimization approach. Simulation is performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the derived tests. The proposed approaches yield more stable type I errors at the nominal level and substantially higher power (efficiency) than does the original Youden's approach. Therefore, the simple explicit large sample solution performs very well. Because we can readily implement the asymptotic and exact bootstrap computation with common software like R, the method is broadly applicable to the evaluation of diagnostic tests and model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Transforming the Ordinary into Extraordinary: Gary Nash and the Visions of History

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vigilante, David

    2009-01-01

    Through his long career, Gary Nash has been a pioneer in opening the often-stuffy chambers of academia. He has shown a devotion to K-12 teachers throughout the nation and has ventured into their classrooms to observe, to teach, and, yes, to learn. It is all too rare for a noted historian, famous for his many seminal works, to roll up his sleeves…

  1. A Differential Evolution Algorithm Based on Nikaido-Isoda Function for Solving Nash Equilibrium in Nonlinear Continuous Games

    PubMed Central

    He, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2016-01-01

    A differential evolution algorithm for solving Nash equilibrium in nonlinear continuous games is presented in this paper, called NIDE (Nikaido-Isoda differential evolution). At each generation, parent and child strategy profiles are compared one by one pairwisely, adapting Nikaido-Isoda function as fitness function. In practice, the NE of nonlinear game model with cubic cost function and quadratic demand function is solved, and this method could also be applied to non-concave payoff functions. Moreover, the NIDE is compared with the existing Nash Domination Evolutionary Multiplayer Optimization (NDEMO), the result showed that NIDE was significantly better than NDEMO with less iterations and shorter running time. These numerical examples suggested that the NIDE method is potentially useful. PMID:27589229

  2. High prevalence of normal serum albumin in NASH patients with ascites: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Sourianarayanane, Achuthan; O'Shea, Robert S; Barnes, David S; McCullough, Arthur J

    2013-06-01

    Ascites usually occurs in the setting of end-stage liver disease and low serum albumin and is associated with increased mortality. However, some patients develop ascites despite normal serum albumin (NSA), when a higher portal pressure and/or enhanced renal sodium retention would be expected. This study investigated the relationship between the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and serum albumin in ascitic patients with different etiologies of cirrhosis and mortality. Records of all patients with non-malignant ascites who underwent HVPG measurement from 2005 to 2009 were reviewed. One hundred and thirty-eight 138 patients met inclusion criteria; 18.8% had NSA. No difference in sodium excretion or diuretic use was noted in patients with and without NSA. NASH patients were more likely to have a NSA (34.2% vs 12.4%; P=0.001) as well as lower HVPG (15 vs 17.9 mmHg; P=0.009) compared to other etiologies. MELD and HVPG predicted overall survival. However, mortality did not differ by disease etiology, though NASH patients had lower CTP (7.6 vs 8.5; P<0.001) and MELD (15.6 vs 18.1; P=0.09) scores, particularly among patients who died. In patients with ascites and NSA, there were no increase in HVPG or urinary sodium retention. NASH patients with ascites had lower HVPG and a higher prevalence of NSA. They also had a higher mortality relative to MELD and CTP scores in other patients. In these patients, mechanisms other than portal and oncotic pressures and sodium retention play a role in ascites development, and increase mortality rate when complicated by low albumin. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Role of adipose tissue in methionine-choline-deficient model of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

    PubMed

    Jha, Pooja; Knopf, Astrid; Koefeler, Harald; Mueller, Michaela; Lackner, Carolin; Hoefler, Gerald; Claudel, Thierry; Trauner, Michael

    2014-07-01

    Methionine-choline-deficient (MCD) diet is a widely used dietary model of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in rodents. However, the contribution of adipose tissue to MCD-induced steatosis, and inflammation as features of NASH are not fully understood. The goal of this study was to elucidate the role of adipose tissue fatty acid (FA) metabolism, adipogenesis, lipolysis, inflammation and subsequent changes in FA profiles in serum and liver in the pathogenesis of steatohepatitis. We therefore fed ob/ob mice with control or MCD diet for 5 weeks. MCD-feeding increased adipose triglyceride lipase and hormone sensitive lipase activities in all adipose depots which may be attributed to increased systemic FGF21 levels. The highest lipase enzyme activity was exhibited by visceral WAT. Non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA)-18:2n6 was the predominantly elevated FA species in serum and liver of MCD-fed ob/ob mice, while overall serum total fatty acid (TFA) composition was reduced. In contrast, an overall increase of all FA species from TFA pool was found in liver, reflecting the combined effects of increased FA flux to liver, decreased FA oxidation and decrease in lipase activity in liver. NAFLD activity score was increased in liver, while WAT showed no changes and BAT showed even reduced inflammation. This study demonstrates a key role for adipose tissue lipases in the pathogenesis of NASH and provides a comprehensive lipidomic profiling of NEFA and TFA homeostasis in serum and liver. Our findings provide novel mechanistic insights for the role of WAT in progression of MCD-induced liver injury. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction

    PubMed Central

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, GH

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer’s utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider. PMID:26431035

  5. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction.

    PubMed

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, G H

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer's utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider.

  6. Estimating suspended sediment using acoustics in a fine-grained riverine system, Kickapoo Creek at Bloomington, Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manaster, Amanda D.; Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Boldt, Justin A.

    2016-08-18

    Acoustic technologies have the potential to be used as a surrogate for measuring suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). This potential was examined in a fine-grained (97-100 percent fines) riverine system in central Illinois by way of installation of an acoustic instrument. Acoustic data were collected continuously over the span of 5.5 years. Acoustic parameters were regressed against SSC data to determine the accuracy of using acoustic technology as a surrogate for measuring SSC in a fine-grained riverine system. The resulting regressions for SSC and sediment acoustic parameters had coefficients of determination ranging from 0.75 to 0.97 for various events and configurations. The overall Nash-Sutcliffe model-fit efficiency was 0.95 for the 132 observed and predicted SSC values determined using the sediment acoustic parameter regressions. The study of using acoustic technologies as a surrogate for measuring SSC in fine-grained riverine systems is ongoing. The results at this site are promising in the realm of surrogate technology.

  7. Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: II. Regional Parameterization.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Nathan O; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Anomaa Senaviratne, G M M M; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

    2017-11-01

    Phosphorus (P) Index assessment requires independent estimates of long-term average annual P loss from fields, representing multiple climatic scenarios, management practices, and landscape positions. Because currently available measured data are insufficient to evaluate P Index performance, calibrated and validated process-based models have been proposed as tools to generate the required data. The objectives of this research were to develop a regional parameterization for the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to estimate edge-of-field runoff, sediment, and P losses in restricted-layer soils of Missouri and Kansas and to assess the performance of this parameterization using monitoring data from multiple sites in this region. Five site-specific calibrated models (SSCM) from within the region were used to develop a regionally calibrated model (RCM), which was further calibrated and validated with measured data. Performance of the RCM was similar to that of the SSCMs for runoff simulation and had Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.72 and absolute percent bias (|PBIAS|) < 18% for both calibration and validation. The RCM could not simulate sediment loss (NSE < 0, |PBIAS| > 90%) and was particularly ineffective at simulating sediment loss from locations with small sediment loads. The RCM had acceptable performance for simulation of total P loss (NSE > 0.74, |PBIAS| < 30%) but underperformed the SSCMs. Total P-loss estimates should be used with caution due to poor simulation of sediment loss. Although we did not attain our goal of a robust regional parameterization of APEX for estimating sediment and total P losses, runoff estimates with the RCM were acceptable for P Index evaluation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  8. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitic (NASH) mice are protected from higher hepatotoxicity of acetaminophen upon induction of PPAR{alpha} with clofibrate

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Donthamsetty, Shashikiran; Bhave, Vishakha S.; Mitra, Mayurranjan S.

    2008-08-01

    The objective was to investigate if the hepatotoxic sensitivity in nonalcoholic steatohepatitic mice to acetaminophen (APAP) is due to downregulation of nuclear receptor PPAR{alpha} via lower cell division and tissue repair. Male Swiss Webster mice fed methionine and choline deficient diet for 31 days exhibited NASH. On the 32nd day, a marginally toxic dose of APAP (360 mg/kg, ip) yielded 70% mortality in steatohepatitic mice, while all non steatohepatitic mice receiving the same dose survived. {sup 14}C-APAP covalent binding, CYP2E1 protein, and enzyme activity did not differ from the controls, obviating increased APAP bioactivation as the cause of amplified APAPmore » hepatotoxicity. Liver injury progressed only in steatohepatitic livers between 6 and 24 h. Cell division and tissue repair assessed by {sup 3}H-thymidine incorporation and PCNA were inhibited only in the steatohepatitic mice given APAP suggesting that higher sensitivity of NASH liver to APAP-induced hepatotoxicity was due to lower tissue repair. The hypothesis that impeded liver tissue repair in steatohepatitic mice was due to downregulation of PPAR{alpha} was tested. PPAR{alpha} was downregulated in NASH. To investigate whether downregulation of PPAR{alpha} in NASH is the critical mechanism of compromised liver tissue repair, PPAR{alpha} was induced in steatohepatitic mice with clofibrate (250 mg/kg for 3 days, ip) before injecting APAP. All clofibrate pretreated steatohepatitic mice receiving APAP exhibited lower liver injury, which did not progress and the mice survived. The protection was not due to lower bioactivation of APAP but due to higher liver tissue repair. These findings suggest that inadequate PPAR{alpha} expression in steatohepatitic mice sensitizes them to APAP hepatotoxicity.« less

  9. A Spatiotemporal Indexing Approach for Efficient Processing of Big Array-Based Climate Data with MapReduce

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Zhenlong; Hu, Fei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Lee, Tsengdar; Bowen, Michael K.; Yang, Chaowei

    2016-01-01

    Climate observations and model simulations are producing vast amounts of array-based spatiotemporal data. Efficient processing of these data is essential for assessing global challenges such as climate change, natural disasters, and diseases. This is challenging not only because of the large data volume, but also because of the intrinsic high-dimensional nature of geoscience data. To tackle this challenge, we propose a spatiotemporal indexing approach to efficiently manage and process big climate data with MapReduce in a highly scalable environment. Using this approach, big climate data are directly stored in a Hadoop Distributed File System in its original, native file format. A spatiotemporal index is built to bridge the logical array-based data model and the physical data layout, which enables fast data retrieval when performing spatiotemporal queries. Based on the index, a data-partitioning algorithm is applied to enable MapReduce to achieve high data locality, as well as balancing the workload. The proposed indexing approach is evaluated using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. The experimental results show that the index can significantly accelerate querying and processing (10 speedup compared to the baseline test using the same computing cluster), while keeping the index-to-data ratio small (0.0328). The applicability of the indexing approach is demonstrated by a climate anomaly detection deployed on a NASA Hadoop cluster. This approach is also able to support efficient processing of general array-based spatiotemporal data in various geoscience domains without special configuration on a Hadoop cluster.

  10. An Efficient Index Dissemination in Unstructured Peer-to-Peer Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke; Izumi, Taisuke; Kakugawa, Hirotsugu; Masuzawa, Toshimitsu

    Using Bloom filters is one of the most popular and efficient lookup methods in P2P networks. A Bloom filter is a representation of data item indices, which achieves small memory requirement by allowing one-sided errors (false positive). In the lookup scheme besed on the Bloom filter, each peer disseminates a Bloom filter representing indices of the data items it owns in advance. Using the information of disseminated Bloom filters as a clue, each query can find a short path to its destination. In this paper, we propose an efficient extension of the Bloom filter, called a Deterministic Decay Bloom Filter (DDBF) and an index dissemination method based on it. While the index dissemination based on a standard Bloom filter suffers performance degradation by containing information of too many data items when its dissemination radius is large, the DDBF can circumvent such degradation by limiting information according to the distance between the filter holder and the items holders, i. e., a DDBF contains less information for faraway items and more information for nearby items. Interestingly, the construction of DDBFs requires no extra cost above that of standard filters. We also show by simulation that our method can achieve better lookup performance than existing ones.

  11. Branched-chain amino acids alleviate hepatic steatosis and liver injury in choline-deficient high-fat diet induced NASH mice.

    PubMed

    Honda, Takashi; Ishigami, Masatoshi; Luo, Fangqiong; Lingyun, Ma; Ishizu, Yoji; Kuzuya, Teiji; Hayashi, Kazuhiko; Nakano, Isao; Ishikawa, Tetsuya; Feng, Guo-Gang; Katano, Yoshiaki; Kohama, Tomoya; Kitaura, Yasuyuki; Shimomura, Yoshiharu; Goto, Hidemi; Hirooka, Yoshiki

    2017-04-01

    For successful treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), it may be important to treat the individual causative factors. At present, however, there is no established treatment for this disease. Branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) have been used to treat patients with decompensated cirrhosis. In order to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the effects of BCAAs on hepatic steatosis and disease progression, we investigated the effects of BCAA supplementation in mice fed a choline-deficient high-fat diet (CDHF), which induces NASH. Male mice were divided into four groups that received (1) choline-sufficient high fat (HF) diet (HF-control), (2) HF plus 2% BCAA in drinking water (HF-BCAA), (3) CDHF diet (CDHF-control), or (4) CDHF-BCAA for 8weeks. We monitored liver injury, hepatic steatosis and cholesterol, gene expression related to lipid metabolism, and hepatic fat accumulation. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and hepatic triglyceride (TG) were significantly elevated in CDHF-control relative to HF-control. Liver histopathology revealed severe steatosis, inflammation, and pericellular fibrosis in CDHF-control, confirming the NASH findings. Serum ALT levels and hepatic TG and lipid droplet areas were significantly lower in CDHF-BCAA than in CDHF-control. Gene expression and protein level of fatty acid synthase (FAS), which catalyzes the final step in fatty acid biosynthesis, was significantly decreased in CDHF-BCAA than in CDHF-control (P<0.05). Moreover, hepatic total and free cholesterol of CDHF-BCAA was significantly lower than those of CDHF-control. BCAA can alleviate hepatic steatosis and liver injury associated with NASH by suppressing FAS gene expression and protein levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Induction of steatohepatitis (NASH) with insulin resistance in wildtype B6 mice by a western-type diet containing soybean oil and cholesterol.

    PubMed

    Henkel, Janin; Coleman, Charles Dominic; Schraplau, Anne; Jӧhrens, Korinna; Weber, Daniela; Castro, José Pedro; Hugo, Martin; Schulz, Tim Julius; Krämer, Stephanie; Schürmann, Annette; Püschel, Gerhard Paul

    2017-03-21

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are hepatic manifestations of the metabolic syndrome. Many currently used animal models of NAFLD/NASH lack clinical features of either NASH or metabolic syndrome such as hepatic inflammation and fibrosis (e.g. high-fat diets) or overweight and insulin resistance (e.g. methionine-choline-deficient diets) or they are based on monogenetic defects (e.g. ob/ob mice). In the current study, a western-type diet containing soybean oil with high n 6-PUFA and 0.75% cholesterol (SOD+Cho) induced steatosis, inflammation and fibrosis accompanied by hepatic lipid peroxidation and oxidative stress in livers of C57BL/6-mice which in addition showed increased weight gain and insulin resistance, thus displaying a phenotype closely resembling all clinical features of NASH in patients with metabolic syndrome. In striking contrast a soybean oil-containing western-type diet without cholesterol (SOD) induced only mild steatosis but neither hepatic inflammation nor fibrosis, weight gain or insulin resistance. Another high-fat diet mainly consisting of lard and supplemented with fructose in drinking water (LAD+Fru) resulted in more prominent weight gain, insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis than SOD+Cho but livers were devoid of inflammation and fibrosis. Although both LAD+Fru- and SOD+Cho-fed animals had high plasma cholesterol, liver cholesterol was elevated only in SOD+Cho animals. Cholesterol induced expression of chemotactic and inflammatory cytokines in cultured Kupffer cells and rendered hepatocytes more susceptible to apoptosis. Summarizing, dietary cholesterol in SOD+Cho diet may trigger hepatic inflammation and fibrosis. SOD+Cho-fed animals may be a useful disease model displaying many clinical features of patients with the metabolic syndrome and NASH.

  13. Sensitivity of New England Stream Temperatures to Air Temperature and Precipitation Under Projected Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, T.; Samal, N. R.; Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.; Zuidema, S.; Prousevitch, A.; Glidden, S.

    2015-12-01

    The thermal response of streams and rivers to changing climate will influence aquatic habitat. This study examines the impact that changing climate has on stream temperatures in the Merrimack River, NH/MA USA using the Framework for Aquatic Modeling in the Earth System (FrAMES), a spatially distributed river network model driven by air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation. Streamflow and water temperatures are simulated at a 45-second (latitude x longitude) river grid resolution for 135 years under historical and projected climate variability. Contemporary streamflow (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.77) and river temperatures (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.89) matched at downstream USGS gauge data well. A suite of model runs were made in combination with uniformly increased daily summer air temperatures by 2oC, 4 oC and 6 oC as well as adjusted precipitation by -40%, -30%, -20%, -10% and +10% as a sensitivity analysis to explore a broad range of potential future climates. We analyzed the summer stream temperatures and the percent of river length unsuitable for cold to warm water fish habitats. Impacts are greatest in large rivers due to the accumulation of river temperature warming throughout the entire river network. Cold water fish (i.e. brook trout) are most strongly affected while, warm water fish (i.e. largemouth bass) aren't expected to be impacted. The changes in stream temperatures under various potential climate scenarios will provide a better understanding of the specific impact that air temperature and precipitation have on aquatic thermal regimes and habitat.

  14. High-efficiency, broad band, high-damage threshold high-index gratings for femtosecond pulse compression.

    PubMed

    Canova, Frederico; Clady, Raphael; Chambaret, Jean-Paul; Flury, Manuel; Tonchev, Svtelen; Fechner, Renate; Parriaux, Olivier

    2007-11-12

    High efficiency, broad-band TE-polarization diffraction over a wavelength range centered at 800 nm is obtained by high index gratings placed on a non-corrugated mirror. More than 96% efficiency wide band top-hat diffraction efficiency spectra, as well as more than 1 J/cm(2) damage threshold under 50 fs pulses are demonstrated experimentally. This opens the way to high-efficiency Chirped Pulse Amplification for high average power laser machining by means of all-dielectric structures as well as for ultra-short high energy pulses by means of metal-dielectric structures.

  15. Policy efficiency in the field of food sustainability. The adjusted food agriculture and nutrition index.

    PubMed

    Agovino, Massimiliano; Cerciello, Massimiliano; Gatto, Andrea

    2018-07-15

    This work introduces a revised version of the Food Sustainability Index, proposed by the Economist Intelligence Unit and the Barilla Center for Food and Nutrition in 2016. Our Adjusted Food Sustainability Index features two important advantages: 1) it employs the Mazziotta-Pareto method to compute weights, hence granting an objective aggregation criterion and 2) it does not take policy variables into account, thus focusing on the status quo. The policy variables are aggregated into the Policy Index, measuring the quality of the food sustainability policies. We compute the two indices for 25 countries worldwide, then we use the Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate policy efficiency. Our results show that country-level variation in policy efficiency is wide and policies affect food sustainability significantly, especially when they target nutritional challenges. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Mean of the typical decoding rates: a new translation efficiency index based on the analysis of ribosome profiling data.

    PubMed

    Dana, Alexandra; Tuller, Tamir

    2014-12-01

    Gene translation modeling and prediction is a fundamental problem that has numerous biomedical implementations. In this work we present a novel, user-friendly tool/index for calculating the mean of the typical decoding rates that enables predicting translation elongation efficiency of protein coding genes for different tissue types, developmental stages, and experimental conditions. The suggested translation efficiency index is based on the analysis of the organism's ribosome profiling data. This index could be used for example to predict changes in translation elongation efficiency of lowly expressed genes that usually have relatively low and/or biased ribosomal densities and protein levels measurements, or can be used for example for predicting translation efficiency of new genetically engineered genes. We demonstrate the usability of this index via the analysis of six organisms in different tissues and developmental stages. Distributable cross platform application and guideline are available for download at: http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~tamirtul/MTDR/MTDR_Install.html. Copyright © 2015 Dana and Tuller.

  17. Provincial Human Development Index, a Guide for Efficiency Level Analysis: The Case of Iran

    PubMed Central

    SABERMAHANI, Asma; BAROUNI, Mohsen; SEYEDIN, Hesam; ARYANKHESAL, Aidin

    2013-01-01

    Background Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite indicator that can show the impact of economic strategies on human life standards. The index is calculated by three main factors of income, education and health. This research studies the status of HDI across the Iranian provinces, its changes over time and the efficiency of provinces in using resources. Methods: The data for 2001 and 2009 was obtained from the Iranian Center of Statistics. Data envelopment analysis technique was used to analyze the data. To calculate the efficiency, Banker, Charnes and Cooper’s model was used. Results: The national mean for the HDI in 2001 was 0.717 while it grew to 0.747 in 2009. Except for one province, all others had an improved human development index. Low ranked provinces such as Sistan & Baluchistan and Kurdistan stayed at the bottom in 2009 as well. Some provinces such as Bushehr with developing oil industries, or those purposively benefited from national oil income showed good growth. In some provinces, such as Hormozgan, out-migration of manpower to its neighboring province, Bushehr, was associated with decrease of the provincial income level. The number of efficient provinces increased from 5 to 13 in 2009. Conclusion: Iran falls among countries with high human development index based on the 2009 data. However, the distribution of HDI status across provinces was highly varied and the difference between high- and low-developed provinces increased in 2009. The government needs to revise policies concerning distribution of resources among the provinces. PMID:23515434

  18. 75 FR 41518 - Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish (Gun Lake) Tribe Liquor Control Ordinance

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-16

    ... ethyl alcohol, hydrated oxide of ethyl, or spirit of wine, commonly produced by the fermentation or... benefit of the Tribe. (j) ``Tribe'' means the Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish Band of Pottawatomi Indians of... and wine shall be purchased from distributors licensed by the Michigan Liquor Control Commission. (f...

  19. Influence of body mass index on movement efficiency among firefighter recruits.

    PubMed

    Cornell, David J; Gnacinski, Stacy L; Zamzow, Aaron; Mims, Jason; Ebersole, Kyle T

    2016-06-04

    Previous research has demonstrated links between musculoskeletal injury risk and measures of obesity and movement efficiency among the firefighter population. However, the influence of obesity on movement efficiency among firefighter recruits remains uninvestigated. To investigate the influence of obesity on movement efficiency measures among firefighter recruits. Measures of obesity were collected among 73 male firefighter recruits. Participants were grouped into standard body mass index (BMI) categories (normal, overweight, obese). Differences in Total Functional Movement Screen (FMS) scores and Y-Balance Test (YBT) composite scores were examined between BMI categories. In addition, the relationships between measures of obesity and movement efficiency were also examined. No significant differences in movement efficiency measures were identified between BMI categories (p > 0.05). However, significant bivariate correlations were identified between BMI (kg/m2) and Total FMS score (r = -0.235, p = 0.045), as well as between fat-free mass (FFM) and Total FMS score (r = -0.231, p = 0.049), when examined among all participants. BMI may influence measures of movement efficiency among firefighter recruits to a lesser extent than among other previously examined populations. Future research should examine the influence of other unexamined physiological variables on movement efficiency.

  20. Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.

    2014-09-01

    In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region), for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90) are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

  1. TOPMODEL simulations of streamflow and depth to water table in Fishing Brook Watershed, New York, 2007-09

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Burns, Douglas A.

    2011-01-01

    TOPMODEL uses a topographic wetness index computed from surface-elevation data to simulate streamflow and subsurface-saturation state, represented by the saturation deficit. Depth to water table was computed from simulated saturation-deficit values using computed soil properties. In the Fishing Brook Watershed, TOPMODEL was calibrated to the natural logarithm of streamflow at the study area outlet and depth to water table at Sixmile Wetland using a combined multiple-objective function. Runoff and depth to water table responded differently to some of the model parameters, and the combined multiple-objective function balanced the goodness-of-fit of the model realizations with respect to these parameters. Results show that TOPMODEL reasonably simulated runoff and depth to water table during the study period. The simulated runoff had a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.738, but the model underpredicted total runoff by 14 percent. Depth to water table computed from simulated saturation-deficit values matched observed water-table depth moderately well; the root mean squared error of absolute depth to water table was 91 millimeters (mm), compared to the mean observed depth to water table of 205 mm. The correlation coefficient for temporal depth-to-water-table fluctuations was 0.624. The variability of the TOPMODEL simulations was assessed using prediction intervals grouped using the combined multiple-objective function. The calibrated TOPMODEL results for the entire study area were applied to several subwatersheds within the study area using computed hydrogeomorphic properties of the subwatersheds.

  2. Genetic Predisposition in NAFLD and NASH: Impact on Severity of Liver Disease and Response to Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Dongiovanni, Paola; Anstee, Quentin M; Valenti, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Liver fat deposition related to systemic insulin resistance defines non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) which, when associated with oxidative hepatocellular damage, inflammation, and activation of fibrogenesis, i.e. non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), can progress towards cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Due to the epidemic of obesity, NAFLD is now the most frequent liver disease and the leading cause of altered liver enzymes in Western countries. Epidemiological, familial, and twin studies provide evidence for an element of heritability of NAFLD. Genetic modifiers of disease severity and progression have been identified through genome-wide association studies. These include the Patatin-like phosholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) gene variant I148M as a major determinant of inter-individual and ethnicity-related differences in hepatic fat content independent of insulin resistance and serum lipid concentration. Association studies confirm that the I148M polymorphism is also a strong modifier of NASH and progressive hepatic injury. Furthermore, a few large multicentre case-control studies have demonstrated a role for genetic variants implicated in insulin signalling, oxidative stress, and fibrogenesis in the progression of NAFLD towards fibrosing NASH, and confirm that hepatocellular fat accumulation and insulin resistance are key operative mechanisms closely involved in the progression of liver damage. It is now important to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying these associations between gene variants and progressive liver disease, and to evaluate their impact on the response to available therapies. It is hoped that this knowledge will offer further insights into pathogenesis, suggest novel therapeutic targets, and could help guide physicians towards individualised therapy that improves clinical outcome. PMID:23394097

  3. Effects of n-3 fish oil on metabolic and histological parameters in NASH: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Argo, Curtis K; Patrie, James T; Lackner, Carolin; Henry, Thomas D; de Lange, Eduard E; Weltman, Arthur L; Shah, Neeral L; Al-Osaimi, Abdullah M; Pramoonjago, Patcharin; Jayakumar, Saumya; Binder, Lukas P; Simmons-Egolf, Winsor D; Burks, Sandra G; Bao, Yongde; Taylor, Ann Gill; Rodriguez, Jessica; Caldwell, Stephen H

    2015-01-01

    This study's aim was to assess the histological and metabolic effects of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) vs. placebo while adjusting for the impact of age and weight change in NASH patients. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00681408). Forty-one subjects with non-cirrhotic NASH were enrolled, and 34 completed the study. 17 received n-3 fish oil 3000 mg/day and 17 received placebo daily for 1 year with typical counselling on caloric intake and physical activity for all subjects. N-3- and placebo-treated groups showed no significant difference for the primary end point of NASH activity score (NAS) reduction ⩾ 2 points without fibrosis progression after adjustment for known covariates (n-3, 4/17 (23.5%); placebo, 3/17, (17.6%), p = 0.99). Among subjects with increased or stable weight, n-3 subjects showed a larger decrease in liver fat content by MRI than placebo-treated subjects (p = 0.014 for 2nd quartile, p = 0.003 for 3rd quartile of weight change). N-3 treatment showed significant fat reduction on the paired analysis of image-assisted fat morphometry regardless of weight loss or gain. Exercise capacity remained markedly reduced in all subjects. No independent effects on markers of hepatocyte injury or insulin sensitivity indices were observed. N-3 PUFAs at 3000 mg/day for one year did not lead to an improvement in the primary outcome of histological activity in NASH patients (⩾ 2 point NAS reduction). N-3 led to reduced liver fat by multiple measures. Other metabolic effects were not seen, although no detrimental effects were apparent. Whether longer duration, higher dose, or different composition of n-3 therapy would lead to additional benefits is uncertain. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Modulatory role of Co-enzyme Q10 on methionine and choline deficient diet-induced non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in albino rats.

    PubMed

    Saleh, Dalia O; Ahmed, Rania F; Amin, Mohamed M

    2017-03-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate the hepato-protective and neuro-protective activity of Co-enzyme Q10 (CoQ10) on non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in albino rats induced by methionine and choline-deficient (MCD) diet. Rats were fed an MCD diet for 8 weeks to induce non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. CoQ10 (10 mg/(kg·day) -1 ) was orally administered for 2 consecutive weeks. Twenty-four hours after the last dose of the drug, the behavioral test, namely the activity cage test, was performed and the activity counts were recorded. Serum alanine transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, total/direct bilirubin, and albumin were valued to assess liver function. Moreover, hepatic cytokines interleukin-6 as well as its modulator nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells were determined. In addition, brain biomarkers, viz ammonia, nitric oxide, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), were measured as they are reliable indices to assess brain damage. Histopathological and immunohistochemical examination of brain proliferating cell nuclear antigen in brain and liver tissues were also evaluated. Results revealed that MCD-induced NASH showed impairment in the liver functions with an increase in the liver inflammatory markers. Moreover, NASH resulted in pronounced brain dysfunction as evidenced by hyper-locomotor activity, a decrease in the BDNF level, as well as an increase in the brain nitric oxide and ammonia contents. Oral treatment of MCD-diet-fed rats with CoQ10 for 14 days showed a marked improvement in all the assigned parameters. Finally, it can be concluded that CoQ10 has a hepatoprotective and neuroprotective role in MCD-diet-induced NASH in rats.

  5. Using the nonlinear aquifer storage-discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, R.; Luo, Y.

    2013-09-01

    Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage-discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage-discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage-discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.

  6. Iterative algorithms for computing the feedback Nash equilibrium point for positive systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, I.; Imsland, Lars; Bogdanova, B.

    2017-03-01

    The paper studies N-player linear quadratic differential games on an infinite time horizon with deterministic feedback information structure. It introduces two iterative methods (the Newton method as well as its accelerated modification) in order to compute the stabilising solution of a set of generalised algebraic Riccati equations. The latter is related to the Nash equilibrium point of the considered game model. Moreover, we derive the sufficient conditions for convergence of the proposed methods. Finally, we discuss two numerical examples so as to illustrate the performance of both of the algorithms.

  7. Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Domanski, Marian M.

    2017-01-27

    Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study.The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98.The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was

  8. Strain dependence of diet-induced NASH and liver fibrosis in obese mice is linked to diabetes and inflammatory phenotype.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Geoffrey C; Mridha, Auvro R; Yeh, Matthew M; Arsov, Todor; Van Rooyen, Derrick M; Brooling, John; Nguyen, Tori; Heydet, Deborah; Delghingaro-Augusto, Viviane; Nolan, Christopher J; Shackel, Nicholas A; McLennan, Susan V; Teoh, Narci C; Larter, Claire Z

    2014-08-01

    Obese Alms1 mutant (foz/foz) NOD.B10 mice develop diabetes and fibrotic NASH when fed high-fat(HF) diet. To establish whether diabetes or obesity is more closely associated with NASH fibrosis, we compared diabetic foz/foz C57BL6/J with non-diabetic foz/foz BALB/c mice. We also determined hepatic cytokines, growth factors and related profibrotic pathways. Male and female foz/foz BALB/c and C57BL6/J mice were fed HF or chow for 24 weeks before determining metabolic indices, liver injury, cytokines, growth factors, pathology/fibrosis and matrix deposition pathways. All foz/foz mice were obese. Hepatomegaly, hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycaemia and hypoadiponectinaemia occurred only in foz/foz C57BL6/J mice, whereas foz/foz BALB/c formed more adipose. Serum ALT, steatosis, ballooning, liver inflammation and NAFLD activity score were worse in C57BL6/J mice. In HF-fed mice, fibrosis was severe in foz/foz C57BL6/J, appreciable in WT C57BL6/J, but absent in foz/foz BALB/c mice. Hepatic mRNA expression of TNF-α, IL-12, IL-4, IL-10 was increased (but not IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-17A), and IL-4:IFN-γ ratio (indicating Th-2 predominance) was higher in HF-fed foz/foz C57BL6/J than BALB/c mice. In livers of HF-fed foz/foz C57BL6/J mice, TGF-β was unaltered but PDGFα and CTGF were increased in association with enhanced α-SMA, CD147and MMP activity. In mice with equivalent genetic/dietary obesity, NASH development is linked to strain differences in hyperinsulinaemia and hyperglycaemia inversely related to lipid partitioning between adipose and liver. Diabetes-mediated CTGF-regulation of MMPs as well as cytokines/growth factors (Th-2 cytokine predominant, PDGFα, not TGF-β) mobilized in the resultant hepatic necroinflammatory change may contribute to strain differences in NASH fibrosis. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. New scoring system combining the FIB-4 index and cytokeratin-18 fragments for predicting steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    PubMed

    Tada, Toshifumi; Kumada, Takashi; Toyoda, Hidenori; Saibara, Toshiji; Ono, Masafumi; Kage, Masayoshi

    To establish a new scoring system as a noninvasive tool for predicting steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). A total of 170 patients histologically diagnosed with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (n = 130) or nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) (n = 40) were enrolled. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and performed multivariate analysis to predict steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis. Multivariate analysis showed that cytokeratin-18 fragment (CK18-F) levels (≥278 U/L) (odds ratio [OR], 4.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-14.00; p = 0.010) and the FIB-4 index (≥1.46) (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 1.93-29.50; p = 0.004) were independently associated with prediction of NASH. We then established a new scoring system (named the FIC-22 score) for predicting NASH using CK18-F levels and FIB-4 index. The areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of the FIC-22 score and NAFIC score were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62-0.78) (p = 0.044). Additionally, the AUROC of the FIC-22 score for predicting the presence of fibrosis (F ≥ 1) was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.85). In patients with NAFLD, the FIC-22 score had high predictive accuracy not only for steatohepatitis but also for the presence of liver fibrosis.

  10. Stochastic modeling of soundtrack for efficient segmentation and indexing of video

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naphade, Milind R.; Huang, Thomas S.

    1999-12-01

    Tools for efficient and intelligent management of digital content are essential for digital video data management. An extremely challenging research area in this context is that of multimedia analysis and understanding. The capabilities of audio analysis in particular for video data management are yet to be fully exploited. We present a novel scheme for indexing and segmentation of video by analyzing the audio track. This analysis is then applied to the segmentation and indexing of movies. We build models for some interesting events in the motion picture soundtrack. The models built include music, human speech and silence. We propose the use of hidden Markov models to model the dynamics of the soundtrack and detect audio-events. Using these models we segment and index the soundtrack. A practical problem in motion picture soundtracks is that the audio in the track is of a composite nature. This corresponds to the mixing of sounds from different sources. Speech in foreground and music in background are common examples. The coexistence of multiple individual audio sources forces us to model such events explicitly. Experiments reveal that explicit modeling gives better result than modeling individual audio events separately.

  11. Multifunctional Effects of a Small-Molecule STAT3 Inhibitor on NASH and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Mice.

    PubMed

    Jung, Kwang Hwa; Yoo, Wonbeak; Stevenson, Heather L; Deshpande, Dipti; Shen, Hong; Gagea, Mihai; Yoo, Suk-Young; Wang, Jing; Eckols, T Kris; Bharadwaj, Uddalak; Tweardy, David J; Beretta, Laura

    2017-09-15

    Purpose: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma is increasing in the United States, and liver cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is becoming an important risk for hepatocellular carcinoma, and most patients with hepatocellular carcinoma have underlying liver cirrhosis and compromised liver function, which limit treatment options. Thus, novel therapeutic strategies to prevent or treat hepatocellular carcinoma in the context of NASH and cirrhosis are urgently needed. Experimental Design: Constitutive activation of STAT3 is frequently detected in hepatocellular carcinoma tumors. STAT3 signaling plays a pivotal role in hepatocellular carcinoma survival, growth, angiogenesis, and metastasis. We identified C188-9, a novel small-molecule STAT3 inhibitor using computer-aided rational drug design. In this study, we evaluated the therapeutic potential of C188-9 for hepatocellular carcinoma treatment and prevention. Results: C188-9 showed antitumor activity in vitro in three hepatocellular carcinoma cell lines. In mice with hepatocyte-specific deletion of Pten (Hep Pten - mice), C188-9 treatment blocked hepatocellular carcinoma tumor growth, reduced tumor development, and reduced liver steatosis, inflammation, and bile ductular reactions, resulting in improvement of the pathological lesions of NASH. Remarkably, C188-9 also greatly reduced liver injury in these mice as measured by serum aspartate aminotransferase and alanine transaminase levels. Analysis of gene expression showed that C188-9 treatment of Hep Pten - mice resulted in inhibition of signaling pathways downstream of STAT3, STAT1, TREM-1, and Toll-like receptors. In contrast, C188-9 treatment increased liver specification and differentiation gene pathways. Conclusions: Our results suggest that C188-9 should be evaluated further for the treatment and/or prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma. Clin Cancer Res; 23(18); 5537-46. ©2017 AACR

  12. Trading efficiency for effectiveness in similarity-based indexing for image databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barros, Julio E.; French, James C.; Martin, Worthy N.; Kelly, Patrick M.

    1995-11-01

    Image databases typically manage feature data that can be viewed as points in a feature space. Some features, however, can be better expressed as a collection of points or described by a probability distribution function (PDF) rather than as a single point. In earlier work we introduced a similarity measure and a method for indexing and searching the PDF descriptions of these items that guarantees an answer equivalent to sequential search. Unfortunately, certain properties of the data can restrict the efficiency of that method. In this paper we extend that work and examine trade-offs between efficiency and answer quality or effectiveness. These trade-offs reduce the amount of work required during a search by reducing the number of undesired items fetched without excluding an excessive number of the desired ones.

  13. Efficiency in evolutionary games: Darwin, Nash and the secret handshake.

    PubMed

    Robson, A J

    1990-06-07

    This paper considers any evolutionary game possessing several evolutionarily stable strategies, or ESSs, with differing payoffs. A mutant is introduced which will "destroy" any ESS which yields a lower payoff than another. This mutant possesses a costless signal and also conditions on the presence of this signal in each opponent. The mutant then can protect itself against a population playing an inefficient ESS by matching this against these non-signalers. At the same time, the mutants can achieve the more efficient ESS against the signaling mutant population itself. This construction is illustrated by means of the simplest possible example, a co-ordination game. The one-shot prisoner's dilemma is used to illustrate how a superior outcome which is not induced by an ESS may be temporarily but not permanently attained. In the case of the repeated prisoner's dilemma, the present argument seems to render the "evolution of co-operation" ultimately inevitable.

  14. Midkine Increases Diagnostic Yield in AFP Negative and NASH-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Vongsuvanh, Roslyn; van der Poorten, David; Iseli, Tristan; Strasser, Simone I.; McCaughan, Geoffrey W.; George, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    Robust biomarkers for population-level hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance are lacking. We compared serum midkine (MDK), dickkopf-1 (DKK1), osteopontin (OPN) and AFP for HCC diagnosis in 86 HCC patients matched to 86 cirrhotics, 86 with chronic liver disease (CLD) and 86 healthy controls (HC). Based on the performance of each biomarker, we assessed a separate longitudinal cohort of 28 HCC patients, at and before cancer diagnosis. Serum levels of MDK and OPN were higher in HCC patients compared to cirrhosis, CLD and HC groups. DKK1 was not different between cases and controls. More than half of HCC patients had normal AFP. In this AFP-negative HCC cohort, 59.18% (n = 29/49) had elevated MDK, applying the optimal cut-off of 0.44 ng/ml. Using AFP ≥ 20 IU/ml or MDK ≥ 0.44 ng/ml, a significantly greater number (76.7%; n = 66/86) of HCC cases were detected. The area under the receiver operating curve for MDK was superior to AFP and OPN in NASH-HCC diagnosis. In the longitudinal cohort, MDK was elevated in 15/28 (54%) of HCC patients at diagnosis, of whom 67% had elevated MDK 6 months prior. Conclusion: AFP and MDK have a complementary role in HCC detection. MDK increases the diagnostic yield in AFP-negative HCC and has greater diagnostic performance than AFP, OPN and DKK-1 in the diagnosis of NASH-HCC. Additionally, MDK has a promising role in the pre-clinical diagnosis of HCC. PMID:27219517

  15. a Novel Approach of Indexing and Retrieving Spatial Polygons for Efficient Spatial Region Queries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, J. H.; Wang, X. Z.; Wang, F. Y.; Shen, Z. H.; Zhou, Y. C.; Wang, Y. L.

    2017-10-01

    Spatial region queries are more and more widely used in web-based applications. Mechanisms to provide efficient query processing over geospatial data are essential. However, due to the massive geospatial data volume, heavy geometric computation, and high access concurrency, it is difficult to get response in real time. Spatial indexes are usually used in this situation. In this paper, based on k-d tree, we introduce a distributed KD-Tree (DKD-Tree) suitbable for polygon data, and a two-step query algorithm. The spatial index construction is recursive and iterative, and the query is an in memory process. Both the index and query methods can be processed in parallel, and are implemented based on HDFS, Spark and Redis. Experiments on a large volume of Remote Sensing images metadata have been carried out, and the advantages of our method are investigated by comparing with spatial region queries executed on PostgreSQL and PostGIS. Results show that our approach not only greatly improves the efficiency of spatial region query, but also has good scalability, Moreover, the two-step spatial range query algorithm can also save cluster resources to support a large number of concurrent queries. Therefore, this method is very useful when building large geographic information systems.

  16. A Comprehensive Snow Density Model for Integrating Lidar-Derived Snow Depth Data into Spatial Snow Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marks, D. G.; Kormos, P.; Johnson, M.; Bormann, K. J.; Hedrick, A. R.; Havens, S.; Robertson, M.; Painter, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Lidar-derived snow depths when combined with modeled or estimated snow density can provide reliable estimates of the distribution of SWE over large mountain areas. Application of this approach is transforming western snow hydrology. We present a comprehensive approach toward modeling bulk snow density that is reliable over a vast range of weather and snow conditions. The method is applied and evaluated over mountainous regions of California, Idaho, Oregon and Colorado in the western US. Simulated and measured snow density are compared at fourteen validation sites across the western US where measurements of snow mass (SWE) and depth are co-located. Fitting statistics for ten sites from three mountain catchments (two in Idaho, one in California) show an average Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency coefficient of 0.83, and mean bias of 4 kg m-3. Results illustrate issues associated with monitoring snow depth and SWE and show the effectiveness of the model, with a small mean bias across a range of snow and climate conditions in the west.

  17. A comparative study of shallow groundwater level simulation with three time series models in a coastal aquifer of South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Q.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Delgado, J.

    2017-05-01

    Accurate and reliable groundwater level forecasting models can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed's aquifers for urban and rural water supply. In this paper, three time series analysis methods, Holt-Winters (HW), integrated time series (ITS), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), are explored to simulate the groundwater level in a coastal aquifer, China. The monthly groundwater table depth data collected in a long time series from 2000 to 2011 are simulated and compared with those three time series models. The error criteria are estimated using coefficient of determination ( R 2), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient ( E), and root-mean-squared error. The results indicate that three models are all accurate in reproducing the historical time series of groundwater levels. The comparisons of three models show that HW model is more accurate in predicting the groundwater levels than SARIMA and ITS models. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies.

  18. Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

    2017-12-01

    In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

  19. 2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

    PubMed

    Yoshimura, Chihiro; Zhou, Maichun; Kiem, Anthony S; Fukami, Kazuhiko; Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H A; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2009-10-01

    A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.

  20. Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-07-01

    A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.

  1. Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, A. R.; Hay, L. E.; McCabe, G. J.; Markstrom, S. L.; Atkinson, R. D.

    2015-09-01

    A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values and model uncertainty information from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.

  2. AQUAdexIM: highly efficient in-memory indexing and querying of astronomy time series images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Zhi; Yu, Ce; Wang, Jie; Xiao, Jian; Cui, Chenzhou; Sun, Jizhou

    2016-12-01

    Astronomy has always been, and will continue to be, a data-based science, and astronomers nowadays are faced with increasingly massive datasets, one key problem of which is to efficiently retrieve the desired cup of data from the ocean. AQUAdexIM, an innovative spatial indexing and querying method, performs highly efficient on-the-fly queries under users' request to search for Time Series Images from existing observation data on the server side and only return the desired FITS images to users, so users no longer need to download entire datasets to their local machines, which will only become more and more impractical as the data size keeps increasing. Moreover, AQUAdexIM manages to keep a very low storage space overhead and its specially designed in-memory index structure enables it to search for Time Series Images of a given area of the sky 10 times faster than using Redis, a state-of-the-art in-memory database.

  3. High-fat, high-fructose, high-cholesterol feeding causes severe NASH and cecal microbiota dysbiosis in juvenile Ossabaw swine

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Pediatric obesity and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are on the rise in industrialized countries, yet our ability to mechanistically examine this relationship is limited by the lack of a suitable higher animal models. Here, we examined the effects of high-fat, high-fructose corn syrup, high-cho...

  4. An efficient 3D R-tree spatial index method for virtual geographic environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Qing; Gong, Jun; Zhang, Yeting

    A three-dimensional (3D) spatial index is required for real time applications of integrated organization and management in virtual geographic environments of above ground, underground, indoor and outdoor objects. Being one of the most promising methods, the R-tree spatial index has been paid increasing attention in 3D geospatial database management. Since the existing R-tree methods are usually limited by their weakness of low efficiency, due to the critical overlap of sibling nodes and the uneven size of nodes, this paper introduces the k-means clustering method and employs the 3D overlap volume, 3D coverage volume and the minimum bounding box shape value of nodes as the integrative grouping criteria. A new spatial cluster grouping algorithm and R-tree insertion algorithm is then proposed. Experimental analysis on comparative performance of spatial indexing shows that by the new method the overlap of R-tree sibling nodes is minimized drastically and a balance in the volumes of the nodes is maintained.

  5. Spontaneous Time Symmetry Breaking in System with Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium: Evidences in Experimental Economics Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhijian; Xu, Bin; Zhejiang Collaboration

    2011-03-01

    In social science, laboratory experiment with human subjects' interaction is a standard test-bed for studying social processes in micro level. Usually, as in physics, the processes near equilibrium are suggested as stochastic processes with time-reversal symmetry (TRS). To the best of our knowledge, near equilibrium, the breaking time symmetry, as well as the existence of robust time anti-symmetry processes, has not been reported clearly in experimental economics till now. By employing Markov transition method to analysis the data from human subject 2x2 Games with wide parameters and mixed Nash equilibrium, we study the time symmetry of the social interaction process near Nash equilibrium. We find that, the time symmetry is broken, and there exists a robust time anti-symmetry processes. We also report the weight of the time anti-symmetry processes in the total processes of each the games. Evidences in laboratory marketing experiments, at the same time, are provided as one-dimension cases. In these cases, time anti-symmetry cycles can also be captured. The proposition of time anti-symmetry processes is small, but the cycles are distinguishable.

  6. Excavating black hole continuum spectrum: Possible signatures of scalar hairs and of higher dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Indrani; Chakraborty, Sumanta; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2017-10-01

    Continuum spectrum from black hole accretion disc holds enormous information regarding the strong gravity regime around the black hole and hence about the nature of gravitational interaction in extreme situations. Since in such strong gravity regime the dynamics of gravity should be modified from the Einstein-Hilbert one, its effect should be imprinted on the continuum spectrum originating from the black hole accretion. To explore the effects of these alternative theories on the black hole continuum spectrum in an explicit manner, we have discussed three alternative gravitational models having their origin in three distinct paradigms—(a) higher dimensions, (b) higher curvature gravity, and (c) generalized Horndeski theories. All of them can have signatures sculptured on the black hole continuum spectrum, distinct from the standard general relativistic scenario. Interestingly all these models exhibit black hole solutions with tidal charge parameter which in these alternative gravity scenarios can become negative, in sharp contrast with the Reissner-Nordström black hole. Using the observational data of optical luminosity for eighty Palomer Green quasars we have illustrated that the difference between the theoretical estimates and the observational results gets minimized for negative values of the tidal charge parameter. As a quantitative estimate of this result we concentrate on several error estimators, including reduced χ2 , Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement etc. Remarkably, all of them indicates a negative value of the tidal charge parameter, signaling the possibility of higher dimensions as well as scalar charge at play in those high gravity regimes.

  7. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2018-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  8. Topographic Controls on Soil Carbon Distribution in Iowa Croplands, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarty, Greg; Li, Xia

    2017-04-01

    Topography is a key factor affecting soil organic carbon (SOC) redistribution (erosion or deposition) because it influences several hydrological indices including soil moisture dynamics, runoff velocity and acceleration, and flow divergence and convergence. In this study, we examined the relationship between 15 topographic metrics derived from Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) data and SOC redistribution in agricultural fields. We adopted the fallout 137Cesium (137Cs) technique to estimate SOC redistribution rates across 560 sampling plots in Iowa. Then, using stepwise ordinarily least square regression (SOLSR) and stepwise principle component analysis (SPCA), topography-based SOC models were developed to simulate spatial patterns of SOC content and redistribution. Results suggested that erosion and deposition of topsoil SOC were regulated by topography with SOC gain in lowland areas and SOC loss in sloping areas. Topographic wetness index (TWI) and slope were the most influential variables controlling SOC content and redistribution. The topography-based models exhibited good performances in simulating SOC content and redistribution across two crop sites with intensive samplings. SPCA models had slightly lower coefficients of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values compared to SOLSR models at the field scale. However, significantly SPCA outperformed SOLAR in predicting SOC redistribution patterns at the watershed scale. Results of this study suggest that the topography-based SPCA model was more robust for scaling up models to the watershed scale because SPCA models may better represent the landscapes and are less subject to over fitting. This work suggests an improved method to sample and characterize landscapes for better prediction of soil property distribution.

  9. A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

  10. Quantitative imaging of fibrotic and morphological changes in liver of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) model mice by second harmonic generation (SHG) and auto-fluorescence (AF) imaging using two-photon excitation microscopy (TPEM).

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Shin; Oshima, Yusuke; Saitou, Takashi; Watanabe, Takao; Miyake, Teruki; Yoshida, Osamu; Tokumoto, Yoshio; Abe, Masanori; Matsuura, Bunzo; Hiasa, Yoichi; Imamura, Takeshi

    2016-12-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common liver disorder caused by fatty liver. Because NASH is associated with fibrotic and morphological changes in liver tissue, a direct imaging technique is required for accurate staging of liver tissue. For this purpose, in this study we took advantage of two label-free optical imaging techniques, second harmonic generation (SHG) and auto-fluorescence (AF), using two-photon excitation microscopy (TPEM). Three-dimensional ex vivo imaging of tissues from NASH model mice, followed by image processing, revealed that SHG and AF are sufficient to quantitatively characterize the hepatic capsule at an early stage and parenchymal morphologies associated with liver disease progression, respectively.

  11. Measurement and decomposition of energy efficiency of Northeast China-based on super efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiaojun; Liu, Yan; Wei, Xiaoxue; Li, Yifan; Zheng, Mengchen; Li, Yudong; Cheng, Chaochao; Wu, Yumei; Liu, Zhaonan; Yu, Yuanbo

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays, environment problem has become the international hot issue. Experts and scholars pay more and more attention to the energy efficiency. Unlike most studies, which analyze the changes of TFEE in inter-provincial or regional cities, TFEE is calculated with the ratio of target energy value and actual energy input based on data in cities of prefecture levels, which would be more accurate. Many researches regard TFP as TFEE to do analysis from the provincial perspective. This paper is intended to calculate more reliably by super efficiency DEA, observe the changes of TFEE, and analyze its relation with TFP, and it proves that TFP is not equal to TFEE. Additionally, the internal influences of the TFEE are obtained via the Malmquist index decomposition. The external influences of the TFFE are analyzed afterward based on the Tobit models. Analysis results demonstrate that Heilongjiang has the highest TFEE followed by Jilin, and Liaoning has the lowest TFEE. Eventually, some policy suggestions are proposed for the influences of energy efficiency and study results.

  12. Application of artificial intelligence to estimate the reference evapotranspiration in sub-humid Doon valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nema, Manish K.; Khare, Deepak; Chandniha, Surendra K.

    2017-11-01

    Estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential component of the hydrologic cycle, which is also requisite for efficient irrigation water management planning and hydro-meteorological studies at both the basin and catchment scales. There are about twenty well-established methods available for ET estimation which depends upon various meteorological parameters and assumptions. Most of these methods are physically based and need a variety of input data. The FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method (PM) for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is recommend for irrigation scheduling worldwide, because PM generally yields the best results under various climatic conditions. This study investigates the abilities of artificial neural networks (ANN) to improve the accuracy of monthly evaporation estimation in sub-humid climatic region of Dehradun. In the first part of the study, different ANN models, comprising various combinations of training function and number of neutrons were developed to estimate the ET0 and it has been compared with the Penman-Monteith (PM) ET0 as the ideal (observed) ET0. Various statistical approaches were considered to estimate the model performance, i.e. Coefficient of Correlation ( r), Sum of Squared Errors, Root Mean Square Error, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index (NSE) and Mean Absolute Error. The ANN model with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm, single hidden layer and nine number of neutron schema was found the best predicting capabilities for the study station with Coefficient of Correlation ( r) and NSE value of 0.996 and 0.991 for calibration period and 0.990 and 0.980 for validation period, respectively. In the subsequent part of the study, the trend analysis of ET0 time series revealed a rising trend in the month of March, and a falling trend during June to November, except August, with more than 90% significance level and the annual declining rate was found to 1.49 mm per year.

  13. Effect of water stress on total biomass, tuber yield, harvest index and water use efficiency in Jerusalem artichoke

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of drought on tuber yield, total biomass, harvest index, water use efficiency of tuber yield (WUEt) and water use efficiency of biomass (WUEb), and to evaluate the differential responses of Jerusalem artichoke (JA) varieties under drought str...

  14. Efficient multifeature index structures for music data retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Wegin; Chen, Arbee L. P.

    1999-12-01

    In this paper, we propose four index structures for music data retrieval. Based on suffix trees, we develop two index structures called combined suffix tree and independent suffix trees. These methods still show shortcomings for some search functions. Hence we develop another index, called Twin Suffix Trees, to overcome these problems. However, the Twin Suffix Trees lack of scalability when the amount of music data becomes large. Therefore we propose the fourth index, called Grid-Twin Suffix Trees, to provide scalability and flexibility for a large amount of music data. For each index, we can use different search functions, like exact search and approximate search, on different music features, like melody, rhythm or both. We compare the performance of the different search functions applied on each index structure by a series of experiments.

  15. A model for water discharge based on energy consumption data (WATEN).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moyano, María Carmen; Tornos, Lucía; Juana, Luis

    2014-05-01

    As the need for water conservation is becoming a major water concern, a lumped model entitled WATEN has been proposed to analyse the water balance in the B-XII Irrigation Sector of the Lower Guadalquivir Irrigated Area, one of the largest irrigated areas in Spain. The aim of this work is to approach the hydrological study of an irrigation district lacking of robust data in such a manner that the water balance is performed from less to more process complexity. WATEN parameters are the total and readily available moisture in the soil, a fix percentage for effective precipitation, and the irrigation efficiency. The Sector presents six different drainage pumping stations, with particular pumping groups and with no water flow measurement devices. Energy consumption depends on the working pumping stations and groups, and on the variable water level to discharge. Energy consumed in the drainage pumping stations has been used for calibration The study has relied on two monthly series of data: the volume of drainage obtained from the model and the energy consumed in the pumping stations. A double mass analysis has permitted the detection of data tendencies. The two resulting series of data have been compared to assess model performance, particularly the Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, e2, determined for monthly data and for annual and monthly average data. For model calibration, we have followed a classical approach based on objective functions optimization, and a robust approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation process, driven in a similar manner to genetic algorithms, entitled Parameters Estimation on Driven Trials (PEDT), and aiming to reduce computational requirements. WATEN has been parameterised maintaining its physical and conceptual rationality. The study approach is outlined as a progressive introduction of data. In this manner, we can observe its effect on the studied objective

  16. Factors Controlling Sediment Load in The Central Anatolia Region of Turkey: Ankara River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duru, Umit; Wohl, Ellen; Ahmadi, Mehdi

    2017-05-01

    Better understanding of the factors controlling sediment load at a catchment scale can facilitate estimation of soil erosion and sediment transport rates. The research summarized here enhances understanding of correlations between potential control variables on suspended sediment loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate flow and sediment at the Ankara River basin. Multivariable regression analysis and principal component analysis were then performed between sediment load and controlling variables. The physical variables were either directly derived from a Digital Elevation Model or from field maps or computed using established equations. Mean observed sediment rate is 6697 ton/year and mean sediment yield is 21 ton/y/km² from the gage. Soil and Water Assessment Tool satisfactorily simulated observed sediment load with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, relative error, and coefficient of determination ( R²) values of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively in the catchment. Therefore, parameter values from the physically based model were applied to the multivariable regression analysis as well as principal component analysis. The results indicate that stream flow, drainage area, and channel width explain most of the variability in sediment load among the catchments. The implications of the results, efficient siltation management practices in the catchment should be performed to stream flow, drainage area, and channel width.

  17. On the assimilation set-up of ASCAT soil moisture data for improving streamflow catchment simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loizu, Javier; Massari, Christian; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Casalí, Javier

    2018-01-01

    Assimilation of remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM) data into hydrological catchment models has been identified as a means to improve streamflow simulations, but reported results vary markedly depending on the particular model, catchment and assimilation procedure used. In this study, the influence of key aspects, such as the type of model, re-scaling technique and SSM observation error considered, were evaluated. For this aim, Advanced SCATterometer ASCAT-SSM observations were assimilated through the ensemble Kalman filter into two hydrological models of different complexity (namely MISDc and TOPLATS) run on two Mediterranean catchments of similar size (750 km2). Three different re-scaling techniques were evaluated (linear re-scaling, variance matching and cumulative distribution function matching), and SSM observation error values ranging from 0.01% to 20% were considered. Four different efficiency measures were used for evaluating the results. Increases in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (0.03-0.15) and efficiency indices (10-45%) were obtained, especially when linear re-scaling and observation errors within 4-6% were considered. This study found out that there is a potential to improve streamflow prediction through data assimilation of remotely sensed SSM in catchments of different characteristics and with hydrological models of different conceptualizations schemes, but for that, a careful evaluation of the observation error and re-scaling technique set-up utilized is required.

  18. Artificial intelligence models for predicting the performance of biological wastewater treatment plant in the removal of Kjeldahl Nitrogen from wastewater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manu, D. S.; Thalla, Arun Kumar

    2017-11-01

    The current work demonstrates the support vector machine (SVM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) modeling to assess the removal efficiency of Kjeldahl Nitrogen of a full-scale aerobic biological wastewater treatment plant. The influent variables such as pH, chemical oxygen demand, total solids (TS), free ammonia, ammonia nitrogen and Kjeldahl Nitrogen are used as input variables during modeling. Model development focused on postulating an adaptive, functional, real-time and alternative approach for modeling the removal efficiency of Kjeldahl Nitrogen. The input variables used for modeling were daily time series data recorded at wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Mangalore during the period June 2014-September 2014. The performance of ANFIS model developed using Gbell and trapezoidal membership functions (MFs) and SVM are assessed using different statistical indices like root mean square error, correlation coefficients (CC) and Nash Sutcliff error (NSE). The errors related to the prediction of effluent Kjeldahl Nitrogen concentration by the SVM modeling appeared to be reasonable when compared to that of ANFIS models with Gbell and trapezoidal MF. From the performance evaluation of the developed SVM model, it is observed that the approach is capable to define the inter-relationship between various wastewater quality variables and thus SVM can be potentially applied for evaluating the efficiency of aerobic biological processes in WWTP.

  19. An Efficient G-XML Data Management Method using XML Spatial Index for Mobile Devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamada, Takashi; Momma, Kei; Seo, Kazuo; Hijikata, Yoshinori; Nishida, Shogo

    This paper presents an efficient G-XML data management method for mobile devices. G-XML is XML based encoding for the transport of geographic information. Mobile devices, such as PDA and mobile-phone, performance trail desktop machines, so some techniques are needed for processing G-XML data on mobile devices. In this method, XML-format spatial index file is used to improve an initial display time of G-XML data. This index file contains XML pointer of each feature in G-XML data and classifies these features by multi-dimensional data structures. From the experimental result, we can prove this method speed up about 3-7 times an initial display time of G-XML data on mobile devices.

  20. The effect of satellite-derived surface soil moisture and leaf area index land data assimilation on streamflow simulations over France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fairbairn, David; Lavinia Barbu, Alina; Napoly, Adrien; Albergel, Clément; Mahfouf, Jean-François; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluates the impact of assimilating surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations into a land surface model using the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydrological suite. SIM consists of three stages: (1) an atmospheric reanalysis (SAFRAN) over France, which forces (2) the three-layer ISBA land surface model, which then provides drainage and runoff inputs to (3) the MODCOU hydro-geological model. The drainage and runoff outputs from ISBA are validated by comparing the simulated river discharge from MODCOU with over 500 river-gauge observations over France and with a subset of stations with low-anthropogenic influence, over several years. This study makes use of the A-gs version of ISBA that allows for physiological processes. The atmospheric forcing for the ISBA-A-gs model underestimates direct shortwave and long-wave radiation by approximately 5 % averaged over France. The ISBA-A-gs model also substantially underestimates the grassland LAI compared with satellite retrievals during winter dormancy. These differences result in an underestimation (overestimation) of evapotranspiration (drainage and runoff). The excess runoff flowing into the rivers and aquifers contributes to an overestimation of the SIM river discharge. Two experiments attempted to resolve these problems: (i) a correction of the minimum LAI model parameter for grasslands and (ii) a bias-correction of the model radiative forcing. Two data assimilation experiments were also performed, which are designed to correct random errors in the initial conditions: (iii) the assimilation of LAI observations and (iv) the assimilation of SSM and LAI observations. The data assimilation for (iii) and (iv) was done with a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which uses finite differences in the observation operator Jacobians to relate the observations to the model variables. Experiments (i) and (ii) improved the median SIM Nash scores by about 9 % and 18 % respectively. Experiment (iii

  1. Mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium for a discontinuous symmetric N-player game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilhorst, H. J.; Appert-Rolland, C.

    2018-03-01

    We consider a game in which each player must find a compromise between more daring strategies that carry a high risk for him to be eliminated, and more cautious ones that, however, reduce his final score. For two symmetric players this game was originally formulated in 1961 by Dresher, who modeled a duel between two opponents. The game has also been of interest in the description of athletic competitions. We extend here the two-player game to an arbitrary number N of symmetric players. We show that there is a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium and find its exact analytic expression, which we analyze in particular in the limit of large N, where mean-field behavior occurs. The original game with N  =  2 arises as a singular limit of the general case.

  2. Research on energy efficiency design index for sea-going LNG carriers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yan; Yu, Yanyun; Guan, Guan

    2014-12-01

    This paper describes the characteristics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers briefly. The LNG carrier includes power plant selection, vapor treatment, liquid cargo tank type, etc. Two parameters—fuel substitution rate and recovery of boil of gas (BOG) volume to energy efficiency design index (EEDI) formula are added, and EEDI formula of LNG carriers is established based on ship EEDI formula. Then, based on steam turbine propulsion device of LNG carriers, mathematical models of LNG carriers' reference line value are established in this paper. By verification, the EEDI formula of LNG carriers described in this paper can provide a reference for LNG carrier EEDI calculation and green shipbuilding.

  3. High slope efficiency and high refractive index change in direct-written Yb-doped waveguide lasers with depressed claddings.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Guido; Gross, Simon; Fuerbach, Alexander; Lancaster, David G; Withford, Michael J

    2013-07-15

    We report the first Yb:ZBLAN and Yb:IOG10 waveguide lasers fabricated by the fs-laser direct-writing technique. Pulses from a Titanium-Sapphire laser oscillator with 5.1 MHz repetition rate were utilized to generate negative refractive index modifications in both glasses. Multiple modifications were aligned in a depressed cladding geometry to create a waveguide. For Yb:ZBLAN we demonstrate high laser slope efficiency of 84% with a maximum output power of 170 mW. By using Yb:IOG10 a laser performance of 25% slope efficiency and 72 mW output power was achieved and we measured a remarkably high refractive index change exceeding Δn = 2.3 × 10(-2).

  4. Visceral Adiposity Index: An Indicator of Adipose Tissue Dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI) has recently proven to be an indicator of adipose distribution and function that indirectly expresses cardiometabolic risk. In addition, VAI has been proposed as a useful tool for early detection of a condition of cardiometabolic risk before it develops into an overt metabolic syndrome. The application of the VAI in particular populations of patients (women with polycystic ovary syndrome, patients with acromegaly, patients with NAFLD/NASH, patients with HCV hepatitis, patients with type 2 diabetes, and general population) has produced interesting results, which have led to the hypothesis that the VAI could be considered a marker of adipose tissue dysfunction. Unfortunately, in some cases, on the same patient population, there is conflicting evidence. We think that this could be mainly due to a lack of knowledge of the application limits of the index, on the part of various authors, and to having applied the VAI in non-Caucasian populations. Future prospective studies could certainly better define the possible usefulness of the VAI as a predictor of cardiometabolic risk. PMID:24829577

  5. Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index: Responsiveness, meaningful change, and relative efficiency.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Carolina; Bril, Vera; Kapral, Moira; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Davis, Aileen M

    2017-12-05

    To study responsiveness and meaningful change of the Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index (MGII) and its relative efficiency compared to other measures. We enrolled 95 patients receiving prednisone, IV immunoglobulin (IVIg), or plasma exchange (PLEX) and 54 controls. Patients were assessed with the MGII and other measures-including the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score, Myasthenia Gravis Composite, and Myasthenia Gravis Activities of Daily Living-at baseline and 3-4 weeks after treatment. Statistical markers of responsiveness included between-groups and within-group differences, and we estimated the relative efficiency of the MGII compared to other measures. Patient-meaningful change was assessed with an anchor-based method, using the patient's impression of change. We determined the minimal detectable change (MDC) and the minimal important difference (MID) at the group and individual level. Treated patients had a higher change in MGII scores than controls (analysis of covariance p < 0.001). The ocular domain changed more with prednisone than with IVIg/PLEX (effect size 0.67 and 0.13, analysis of covariance p = 0.001). The generalized domain changed more with IVIg/PLEX than with prednisone (effect size 0.50 and 0.22, analysis of covariance p = 0.07). For the total MGII score, the individual MDC95 was 9.1 and the MID was 5.5 for individuals and 8.1 for groups. Relative efficiency ratios were >1 favoring the MGII. The MGII demonstrated responsiveness to prednisone, IVIg, and PLEX in patients with myasthenia. There is a differential response in ocular and generalized symptoms to type of therapy. The MGII has higher relative efficiency than comparison measures and is viable for use in clinical trials. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

  6. The Mathematics of Aggregation, Interdependence, Organizations and Systems of Nash Equilibria (NE): A Replacement for Game Theory

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    there a free-market economist in the House?, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 66(2): 309-334. Jasny, B. R., Zahn, L.M., & Marshall, E...1   The Mathematics of Aggregation, Interdependence, Organizations and Systems of Nash equilibria (NE): A replacement for Game Theory...level data to group, organization and systems levels, making it one of social science’s biggest challenges, if not the most important (Giles, 2011). For

  7. Adaptive Parameter Optimization of a Grid-based Conceptual Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samaniego, L.; Kumar, R.; Attinger, S.

    2007-12-01

    ). The main difference with the standard SA is the parameter search routine which uses adaptive heuristic rules to improve its efficiency. These rules are based on the relative behavior of the efficiency criteria. The efficiency of the model is evaluated with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and the RMSE obtained for various short and long term runoff characteristics such as daily flows; semiannual high and low flow characteristics such as total drought duration frequency of high flows; and annual specific discharge at various gauging stations. Additionally, the parameter search was constrained with the 95% confidence bands of the runoff characteristics mentioned above. The proposed method was calibrated in the Upper Neckar River basin covering an area of approximately 4000~km2 during the period from 1961 to 1993. The spatial and temporal resolutions used were a grid size of (1000 × 1000)~m and 12~h intervals respectively. The results of the study indicate significant improvement in model performance (e.g. Nash-Sutcliffe of various runoff characteristics ~ 0.8) and a significant reduction in computational burden of at least 25%.

  8. Prevalence and predictors of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery: a Department of Defense experience.

    PubMed

    Reha, Jeffrey L; Lee, Sukhyung; Hofmann, Luke J

    2014-06-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a silent liver disease that can lead to inflammation and subsequent scaring. If left untreated, cirrhosis may ensue. Morbidly obese patients are at an increased risk of NASH. We report the prevalence and predictors of NASH in patients undergoing morbid obesity surgery. A retrospective review was conducted on morbidly obese patients undergoing weight reduction surgery from September 2005 through December 2008. A liver biopsy was performed at the time of surgery. Patients who had a history of hepatitis infection or previous alcohol dependency were excluded. Prevalence of NASH was studied. Predictors of NASH among clinical and biochemical variables were analyzed using multivariate regression analysis. One hundred thirteen patients were analyzed (84% female; mean age, 42.6 ± 11.4 years; mean body mass index, 45.1 ± 5.7 kg/m(2)). Sixty-one patients had systemic hypertension (54%) and 35 patients had diabetes (31%). The prevalence of NASH in this study population was 35 per cent (40 of 113). An additional 59 patients (52%) had simple steatosis without NASH. Only 14 patients had normal liver histology. On multivariate analysis, only elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (greater than 41 IU/L) was the independent predictor for NASH (odds ratio, 5.85; confidence interval, 1.06 to 32.41). Patient age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and abnormal alanine aminotransferase did not predict NASH. NASH is a common finding in obese population. Abnormal AST was the only predictive factor for NASH.

  9. Low-flow characteristics for streams on the Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi, State of Hawaiʻi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cheng, Chui Ling

    2016-08-03

    Statistical models were developed to estimate natural streamflow under low-flow conditions for streams with existing streamflow data at measurement sites on the Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi. Streamflow statistics used to describe the low-flow characteristics are flow-duration discharges that are equaled or exceeded between 50 and 95 percent of the time during the 30-year base period 1984–2013. Record-augmentation techniques were applied to develop statistical models relating concurrent streamflow data at the measurement sites and long-term data from nearby continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that were in operation during the base period and were selected as index stations. Existing data and subsequent low-flow analyses of the available data help to identify streams in under-represented geographic areas and hydrogeologic settings where additional data collection is suggested.Low-flow duration discharges were estimated for 107 measurement sites (including long-term and short-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, and partial-record stations) and 27 index stations. The adequacy of statistical models was evaluated with correlation coefficients and modified Nash-Sutcliff coefficients of efficiency, and a majority of the low-flow duration-discharge estimates are satisfactory based on these regression statistics.Molokaʻi and Hawaiʻi have the fewest number of measurement sites (that are not located on ephemeral stream reaches) at which flow-duration discharges were estimated, which can be partially explained by the limited number of index stations available on these islands that could be used for record augmentation. At measurement sites on some tributary streams, low-flow duration discharges could not be estimated because no adequate correlations could be developed with the index stations. These measurement sites are located on streams where duration-discharge estimates are available at long-term stations at other

  10. Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

  11. A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Viger, Roland

    2016-01-01

    A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  12. A comparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wen-Chuan; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Qiu, Lin

    2009-08-01

    SummaryDeveloping a hydrological forecasting model based on past records is crucial to effective hydropower reservoir management and scheduling. Traditionally, time series analysis and modeling is used for building mathematical models to generate hydrologic records in hydrology and water resources. Artificial intelligence (AI), as a branch of computer science, is capable of analyzing long-series and large-scale hydrological data. In recent years, it is one of front issues to apply AI technology to the hydrological forecasting modeling. In this paper, autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANNs) approaches, adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques, genetic programming (GP) models and support vector machine (SVM) method are examined using the long-term observations of monthly river flow discharges. The four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation ( R), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( E), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. Two case study river sites are also provided to illustrate their respective performances. The results indicate that the best performance can be obtained by ANFIS, GP and SVM, in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation phases.

  13. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    PubMed

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluation of stream water quality data generated from MODIS images in modeling total suspended solid emission to a freshwater lake.

    PubMed

    Ayana, Essayas K; Worqlul, Abeyou W; Steenhuis, Tammo S

    2015-08-01

    Modeling of suspended sediment emission into freshwater lakes is challenging due to data gaps in developing countries. Existing models simulate sediment concentration at a gauging station upstream and none of these studies had modeled total suspended solids (TSS) emissions by inflowing rivers to freshwater lakes as there are no TSS measurements at the river mouth in the upper Blue Nile basin. In this study a 10year TSS time series data generated from remotely sensed MODIS/Terra images using established empirical relationship is applied to calibrate and validate a hydrology model for Lake Tana in Upper Blue Nile Basin. The result showed that at a monthly time scale TSS at the river mouth can be replicated with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) of 0.34 for calibration and 0.21 for validation periods. Percent bias (PBIAS) and ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) are all within range. Given the inaccessibility and costliness to measure TSS at river mouths to a lake the results found here are considered useful for suspended sediment budget studies in water bodies of the basin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Tensorial dynamic time warping with articulation index representation for efficient audio-template learning.

    PubMed

    Le, Long N; Jones, Douglas L

    2018-03-01

    Audio classification techniques often depend on the availability of a large labeled training dataset for successful performance. However, in many application domains of audio classification (e.g., wildlife monitoring), obtaining labeled data is still a costly and laborious process. Motivated by this observation, a technique is proposed to efficiently learn a clean template from a few labeled, but likely corrupted (by noise and interferences), data samples. This learning can be done efficiently via tensorial dynamic time warping on the articulation index-based time-frequency representations of audio data. The learned template can then be used in audio classification following the standard template-based approach. Experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms both (1) the recurrent neural network approach and (2) the state-of-the-art in the template-based approach on a wildlife detection application with few training samples.

  16. In quest of axionic hairs in quasars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Indrani; Mandal, Bhaswati; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2018-03-01

    The presence of axionic field can provide plausible explanation to several long standing problems in physics such as dark matter and dark energy. The pseudo-scalar axion whose derivative corresponds to the Hodge dual of the Kalb-Ramond field strength in four dimensions plays crucial roles in explaining several astrophysical and cosmological observations. Therefore, the detection of axionic hairs/Kalb-Ramond field which appears as closed string excitations in the heterotic string spectrum may provide a profound insight to our understanding of the current universe. The current level of precision achieved in solar-system based tests employed to test general relativity, is not sufficient to detect the presence of axion. However, the near horizon regime of quasars where the curvature effects are maximum seems to be a natural laboratory to probe such additions to the matter sector. The continuum spectrum emitted from the accretion disk around quasars encapsulates the imprints of the background spacetime and hence acts as a storehouse of information regarding the nature of gravitational interaction in extreme situations. The surfeit of data available in the electromagnetic domain provides a further motivation to explore such systems. Using the optical data for eighty Palomar Green quasars we demonstrate that the theoretical estimates of optical luminosity explain the observations best when the axionic field is assumed to be absent. However, axion which violates the energy condition seems to be favored by observations which has several interesting consequences. Error estimators, including reduced χ2, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and modified versions of the last two are used to solidify our conclusion and the implications of our result are discussed.

  17. Mathematical modeling of olive mill waste composting process.

    PubMed

    Vasiliadou, Ioanna A; Muktadirul Bari Chowdhury, Abu Khayer Md; Akratos, Christos S; Tekerlekopoulou, Athanasia G; Pavlou, Stavros; Vayenas, Dimitrios V

    2015-09-01

    The present study aimed at developing an integrated mathematical model for the composting process of olive mill waste. The multi-component model was developed to simulate the composting of three-phase olive mill solid waste with olive leaves and different materials as bulking agents. The modeling system included heat transfer, organic substrate degradation, oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide production, water content change, and biological processes. First-order kinetics were used to describe the hydrolysis of insoluble organic matter, followed by formation of biomass. Microbial biomass growth was modeled with a double-substrate limitation by hydrolyzed available organic substrate and oxygen using Monod kinetics. The inhibitory factors of temperature and moisture content were included in the system. The production and consumption of nitrogen and phosphorous were also included in the model. In order to evaluate the kinetic parameters, and to validate the model, six pilot-scale composting experiments in controlled laboratory conditions were used. Low values of hydrolysis rates were observed (0.002841/d) coinciding with the high cellulose and lignin content of the composting materials used. Model simulations were in good agreement with the experimental results. Sensitivity analysis was performed and the modeling efficiency was determined to further evaluate the model predictions. Results revealed that oxygen simulations were more sensitive on the input parameters of the model compared to those of water, temperature and insoluble organic matter. Finally, the Nash and Sutcliff index (E), showed that the experimental data of insoluble organic matter (E>0.909) and temperature (E>0.678) were better simulated than those of water. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Is there a `universal' dynamic zero-parameter hydrological model? Evaluation of a dynamic Budyko model in US and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patnaik, S.; Biswal, B.; Sharma, V. C.

    2017-12-01

    River flow varies greatly in space and time, and the single biggest challenge for hydrologists and ecologists around the world is the fact that most rivers are either ungauged or poorly gauged. Although it is relatively easier to predict long-term average flow of a river using the `universal' zero-parameter Budyko model, lack of data hinders short-term flow prediction at ungauged locations using traditional hydrological models as they require observed flow data for model calibration. Flow prediction in ungauged basins thus requires a dynamic 'zero-parameter' hydrological model. One way to achieve this is to regionalize a dynamic hydrological model's parameters. However, a regionalization method based zero-parameter dynamic hydrological model is not `universal'. An alternative attempt was made recently to develop a zero-parameter dynamic model by defining an instantaneous dryness index as a function of antecedent rainfall and solar energy inputs with the help of a decay function and using the original Budyko function. The model was tested first in 63 US catchments and later in 50 Indian catchments. The median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was found to be close to 0.4 in both the cases. Although improvements need to be incorporated in order to use the model for reliable prediction, the main aim of this study was to rather understand hydrological processes. The overall results here seem to suggest that the dynamic zero-parameter Budyko model is `universal.' In other words natural catchments around the world are strikingly similar to each other in the way they respond to hydrologic inputs; we thus need to focus more on utilizing catchment similarities in hydrological modelling instead of over parameterizing our models.

  19. Improved Algorithm of SCS-CN Model Parameters in Typical Inland River Basin in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jin J.; Ding, Jian L.; Zhang, Zhe; Chen, Wen Q.

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important factor for hydrological structures, social and economic development on the background of global warmer, especially in arid regions. The aim of this paper is find the suitable method to simulate the runoff in arid area. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) is the most popular and widely applied model for direct runoff estimation. In this paper, we will focus on Wen-quan Basin in source regions of Boertala River. It is a typical valley of inland in Central Asia. First time to use the 16m resolution remote sensing image about high-definition earth observation satellite “Gaofen-1” to provide a high degree accuracy data for land use classification determine the curve number. Use surface temperature/vegetation index (TS/VI) construct 2D scatter plot combine with the soil moisture absorption balance principle calculate the moisture-holding capacity of soil. Using original and parameter algorithm improved SCS-CN model respectively to simulation the runoff. The simulation results show that the improved model is better than original model. Both of them in calibration and validation periods Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.79, 0.71 and 0.66,038. And relative error were3%, 12% and 17%, 27%. It shows that the simulation accuracy should be further improved and using remote sensing information technology to improve the basic geographic data for the hydrological model has the following advantages: 1) Remote sensing data having a planar characteristic, comprehensive and representative. 2) To get around the bottleneck about lack of data, provide reference to simulation the runoff in similar basin conditions and data-lacking regions.

  20. Ecologically-focused Calibration of Hydrological Models for Environmental Flow Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, S. K.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic alteration resulting from watershed urbanization is a common cause of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Developing environmental flow criteria for urbanizing watersheds requires quantitative flow-ecology relationships that describe biological responses to streamflow alteration. Ideally, gaged flow data are used to develop flow-ecology relationships; however, biological monitoring sites are frequently ungaged. For these ungaged locations, hydrologic models must be used to predict streamflow characteristics through calibration and testing at gaged sites, followed by extrapolation to ungaged sites. Physically-based modeling of rainfall-runoff response has frequently utilized "best overall fit" calibration criteria, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), that do not necessarily focus on specific aspects of the flow regime relevant to biota of interest. This study investigates the utility of employing flow characteristics known a priori to influence regional biological endpoints as "ecologically-focused" calibration criteria compared to traditional, "best overall fit" criteria. For this study, 19 continuous HEC-HMS 4.0 models were created in coastal southern California and calibrated to hourly USGS streamflow gages with nearby biological monitoring sites using one "best overall fit" and three "ecologically-focused" criteria: NSE, Richards-Baker Flashiness Index (RBI), percent of time when the flow is < 1 cfs (%<1), and a Combined Calibration (RBI and %<1). Calibrated models were compared using calibration accuracy, environmental flow metric reproducibility, and the strength of flow-ecology relationships. Results indicate that "ecologically-focused" criteria can be calibrated with high accuracy and may provide stronger flow-ecology relationships than "best overall fit" criteria, especially when multiple "ecologically-focused" criteria are used in concert, despite inabilities to accurately reproduce additional types of ecological flow metrics to which the

  1. Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model.

    PubMed

    Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A

    2017-09-15

    In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Anopheles atroparvus density modeling using MODIS NDVI in a former malarious area in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Lourenço, Pedro M; Sousa, Carla A; Seixas, Júlia; Lopes, Pedro; Novo, Maria T; Almeida, A Paulo G

    2011-12-01

    Malaria is dependent on environmental factors and considered as potentially re-emerging in temperate regions. Remote sensing data have been used successfully for monitoring environmental conditions that influence the patterns of such arthropod vector-borne diseases. Anopheles atroparvus density data were collected from 2002 to 2005, on a bimonthly basis, at three sites in a former malarial area in Southern Portugal. The development of the Remote Vector Model (RVM) was based upon two main variables: temperature and the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite. Temperature influences the mosquito life cycle and affects its intra-annual prevalence, and MODIS NDVI was used as a proxy for suitable habitat conditions. Mosquito data were used for calibration and validation of the model. For areas with high mosquito density, the model validation demonstrated a Pearson correlation of 0.68 (p<0.05) and a modelling efficiency/Nash-Sutcliffe of 0.44 representing the model's ability to predict intra- and inter-annual vector density trends. RVM estimates the density of the former malarial vector An. atroparvus as a function of temperature and of MODIS NDVI. RVM is a satellite data-based assimilation algorithm that uses temperature fields to predict the intra- and inter-annual densities of this mosquito species using MODIS NDVI. RVM is a relevant tool for vector density estimation, contributing to the risk assessment of transmission of mosquito-borne diseases and can be part of the early warning system and contingency plans providing support to the decision making process of relevant authorities. © 2011 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  3. CHIP−/−-Mouse Liver: Adiponectin-AMPK-FOXO-Activation Overrides CYP2E1-Elicited JNK1-Activation, Delaying Onset of NASH: Therapeutic Implications

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sung-Mi; Grenert, James P.; Patterson, Cam; Correia, Maria Almira

    2016-01-01

    Genetic ablation of C-terminus of Hsc70-interacting protein (CHIP) E3 ubiquitin-ligase impairs hepatic cytochrome P450 CYP2E1 degradation. Consequent CYP2E1 gain of function accelerates reactive O2 species (ROS) production, triggering oxidative/proteotoxic stress associated with sustained activation of c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase (JNK)-signaling cascades, pro-inflammatory effectors/cytokines, insulin resistance, progressive hepatocellular ballooning and microvesicular steatosis. Despite this, little evidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was found in CHIP−/−-mice over the first 8–9-months of life. We herein document that this lack of tissue injury is largely due to the concurrent up-regulation and/or activation of the adiponectin-5′-AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-forkhead box O (FOXO)-signaling axis stemming from at the least three synergistic features: Up-regulated expression of adipose tissue adiponectin and its hepatic adipoR1/adipoR2 receptors, stabilization of hepatic AMPKα1-isoform, identified herein for the first time as a CHIP-ubiquitination substrate (unlike its AMPKα2-isoform), as well as nuclear stabilization of FOXOs, well-known CHIP-ubiquitination targets. Such beneficial predominance of the adiponectin-AMPK-FOXO-signaling axis over the sustained JNK-elevation and injurious insulin resistance in CHIP−/−-livers apparently counteracts/delays rapid progression of the hepatic microvesicular steatosis to the characteristic macrovesicular steatosis observed in clinical NASH and/or rodent NASH-models. PMID:27406999

  4. Analysis of one dimension migration law from rainfall runoff on urban roof

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiwei, Chen

    2017-08-01

    Research was taken on the hydrology and water quality process in the natural rain condition and water samples were collected and analyzed. The pollutant were included SS, COD and TN. Based on the mass balance principle, one dimension migration model was built for the rainfall runoff pollution in surface. The difference equation was developed according to the finite difference method, by applying the Newton iteration method for solving it. The simulated pollutant concentration process was in consistent with the measured value on model, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher than 0.80. The model had better practicability, which provided evidence for effectively utilizing urban rainfall resource, non-point source pollution of making management technologies and measures, sponge city construction, and so on.

  5. Efficient Single-Pass Index Construction for Text Databases.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heinz, Steffen; Zobel, Justin

    2003-01-01

    Discusses index construction for text collections, reviews principal approaches to inverted indexes, analyzes their theoretical cost, and presents experimental results of the use of a single-pass inversion method on Web document collections. Shows that the single-pass approach is faster and does not require the complete vocabulary of the indexed…

  6. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

  7. Factors Controlling Sediment Load in The Central Anatolia Region of Turkey: Ankara River Basin.

    PubMed

    Duru, Umit; Wohl, Ellen; Ahmadi, Mehdi

    2017-05-01

    Better understanding of the factors controlling sediment load at a catchment scale can facilitate estimation of soil erosion and sediment transport rates. The research summarized here enhances understanding of correlations between potential control variables on suspended sediment loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate flow and sediment at the Ankara River basin. Multivariable regression analysis and principal component analysis were then performed between sediment load and controlling variables. The physical variables were either directly derived from a Digital Elevation Model or from field maps or computed using established equations. Mean observed sediment rate is 6697 ton/year and mean sediment yield is 21 ton/y/km² from the gage. Soil and Water Assessment Tool satisfactorily simulated observed sediment load with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, relative error, and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively in the catchment. Therefore, parameter values from the physically based model were applied to the multivariable regression analysis as well as principal component analysis. The results indicate that stream flow, drainage area, and channel width explain most of the variability in sediment load among the catchments. The implications of the results, efficient siltation management practices in the catchment should be performed to stream flow, drainage area, and channel width.

  8. Coupling the NASA-CASA ecosystem model with a hydrologic routing algorithm for improved water management in Yosemite National Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teaby, A.; Johnson, E. R.; Griffin, M.; Carrillo, C.; Kannan, T.; Shupe, J. W.; Schmidt, C.

    2013-12-01

    Historic trends reveal extreme precipitation variability within the Yosemite National Park (YNP) geographic region. While California obtains greater than half of its annual water supply from the Sierra Nevada, snowpack, precipitation, and runoff can fluctuate between less than 50% and greater than 200% of climatological averages. Advances in hydrological modeling are crucial to improving water-use efficiency at the local, state, and national levels. The NASA Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) is a global simulation model that combines multi-year satellite, climate, and other land surface databases to estimate biosphere-atmosphere exchange of energy, water, and trace gases from plants and soils. By coupling CASA with a Hydrological Routing Algorithm known as HYDRA, it is possible to calculate current water availability and observe hydrological trends within YNP. Satellite-derived inputs such as surface evapotranspiration, temperature, precipitation, land cover, and elevation were included to create a valuable decision support tool for YNP's water resource managers. These results will be of enhanced importance given current efforts to restore 81 miles of the Merced River within the park's boundary. Validations of model results were conducted using in situ stream gage measurements. The model accurately simulated observed streamflow values, achieving a relatively strong Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. This geospatial assessment provides a standardized method which may be repeated in both national and international water-stressed regions.

  9. Reactive hyperemia index (RHI) and cognitive performance indexes are associated with histologic markers of liver disease in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): a case control study.

    PubMed

    Tuttolomondo, Antonino; Petta, Salvatore; Casuccio, Alessandra; Maida, Carlo; Corte, Vittoriano Della; Daidone, Mario; Di Raimondo, Domenico; Pecoraro, Rosaria; Fonte, Roberto; Cirrincione, Anna; Zafonte, Rita; Cabibi, Daniela; Cammà, Calogero; Di Marco, Vito; Licata, Anna; Magliozzo, Franco; Marchesini, Giulio; Merlino, Giovanni; Craxì, Antonio; Pinto, Antonio

    2018-02-16

    No study evaluated vascular health markers in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) through a combined analysis of reactive hyperemia peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) and arterial stiffness indexes. We aimed to assess whether NAFLD and its histological severity are associated with impairment of arterial stiffness and RH-PAT indexes in a mixed cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. The Kleiner classification was used to grade NAFLD grade. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index (Aix) were used as markers of arterial stiffness, whereas endothelial function was assessed using reactive hyperemia index (RHI). The mini-mental state examination (MMSE) was administered to test cognitive performance. 80 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and 83 controls without fatty liver disease. NAFLD subjects showed significantly lower mean RHI, higher mean arterial stiffness indexes and lower mean MMSE score. Multivariable analysis after correction for BMI, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, sex, diabetes, age and cardiovascular disease showed that BMI, diastolic blood pressure and RHI are significantly associated to NAFLD. Simple linear regression analysis showed among non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) subjects a significant negative relationship between ballooning grade and MMSE and a significant positive association between Kleiner steatosis grade and augmentation index. Future research will be addressed to evaluate the relationship between inflammatory markers and arterial stiffness and endothelial function indexes in NAFLD subjects. These study will evaluate association between cardiovascular event incidence and arterial stiffness, endothelial and cognitive markers, and they will address the beneficial effects of cardiovascular drugs such as statins and ACE inhibitors on these surrogate markers in NAFLD subjects.

  10. Identification of novel noninvasive markers for diagnosing nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and related fibrosis by data mining.

    PubMed

    Yoshimura, Keito; Okanoue, Takeshi; Ebise, Hayao; Iwasaki, Tsuyoshi; Mizuno, Masayuki; Shima, Toshihide; Ichihara, Junji; Yamazaki, Kazuto

    2016-02-01

    It is important that patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are diagnosed and treated early to prevent serious complications, such as liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. However, current methods for NASH diagnosis are invasive given that they rely on liver biopsy, making early diagnosis difficult. In this study, we developed novel noninvasive markers for the diagnosis of NASH and NASH-related fibrosis. A total of 132 Japanese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were included in this study. Blood samples were collected, and 261 biomolecules were quantified in serum. Using cluster and pathway analyses, we identified biomolecule modules connected to biological events that occur with disease progression to NASH. The modules were used as variables for diagnosis, leading to a NASH diagnostic marker associated with two biological events, that is, protective response to hepatic steatosis and hepatitis-causing innate immune response. Regarding the NASH-related fibrosis marker, immunological responses to hepatocyte injury were identified as a biological event. To develop diagnostic markers for NASH and NASH-related fibrosis, specific biomolecules were selected from each biomolecule module. The former marker was obtained by averaging the levels of four biomolecules, whereas the latter was obtained by averaging the levels of two biomolecules. Both markers achieved a diagnostic accuracy of almost 0.9 of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the latter exhibited equivalent performance in an independent group of 62 prospectively recruited patients. We developed highly accurate markers for the diagnosis of both NASH and NASH-related fibrosis (i.e., FM-NASH index and FM-fibro index, respectively). These markers may be used as an alternative diagnostic tool to liver biopsy. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  11. Can a canopy temperature-based stress index enhance water use efficiency in irrigated wine grape under arid conditions?

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Enhancement of irrigation water use efficiency and water productivity in arid wine grape production regions is hindered by a lack of automated, real-time methods for monitoring and interpreting vine water status. A normalized, water stress index calculated from real-time vine canopy temperature meas...

  12. CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akhter, Javed; Das, Lalu; Deb, Argha

    2017-09-01

    Performances of the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models in reproducing the spatial rainfall patterns over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India viz. North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI) and South Peninsular India (SPI) have been assessed using different conventional performance metrics namely spatial correlation (R), index of agreement (d-index), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Ratio of RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) and mean bias (MB). The results based on these indices revealed that majority of the models are unable to reproduce finer-scaled spatial patterns over most of the zones. Thereafter, four bias correction methods i.e. Scaling, Standardized Reconstruction, Empirical Quantile Mapping and Gamma Quantile Mapping have been applied on GCM simulations to enhance the skills of the GCM projections. It has been found that scaling method compared to other three methods shown its better skill in capturing mean spatial patterns. Multi-model ensemble (MME) comprising 25 numbers of better performing bias corrected (Scaled) GCMs, have been considered for developing future rainfall patterns over seven zones. Models' spread from ensemble mean (uncertainty) has been found to be larger in RCP 8.5 than RCP4.5 ensemble. In general, future rainfall projections from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 revealed an increasing rainfall over seven zones during 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The maximum increase has been found over southwestern part of NWI (12-30%), northwestern part of WPI (3-30%), southeastern part of NEI (5-18%) and northern and eastern part of SPI (6-24%). However, the contiguous region comprising by the southeastern part of NCI and northeastern part of EPI, may experience slight decreasing rainfall (about 3%) during 2020s whereas the western part of NMI may also receive around 3% reduction in rainfall during both 2050s and 2080s.

  13. New strategy to promote conversion efficiency using high-index nanostructures in thin-film solar cells

    PubMed Central

    Wang, DongLin; Su, Gang

    2014-01-01

    Nano-scaled metallic or dielectric structures may provide various ways to trap light into thin-film solar cells for improving the conversion efficiency. In most schemes, the textured active layers are involved into light trapping structures that can provide perfect optical benefits but also bring undesirable degradation of electrical performance. Here we propose a novel approach to design high-performance thin-film solar cells. In our strategy, a flat active layer is adopted for avoiding electrical degradation, and an optimization algorithm is applied to seek for an optimized light trapping structure for the best optical benefit. As an example, we show that the efficiency of a flat a-Si:H thin-film solar cell can be promoted close to the certified highest value. It is also pointed out that, by choosing appropriate dielectric materials with high refractive index (>3) and high transmissivity in wavelength region of 350 nm–800 nm, the conversion efficiency of solar cells can be further enhanced. PMID:25418477

  14. A study on operation efficiency evaluation based on firm's financial index and benchmark selection: take China Unicom as an example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zu-guang; Tian, Zhan-jun; Liu, Hui; Huang, Rui; Zhu, Guo-hua

    2009-07-01

    Being the only listed telecom operators of A share market, China Unicom has always been attracted many institutional investors under the concept of 3G recent years,which itself is a great technical progress expectation.Do the institutional investors or the concept of technical progress have signficant effect on the improving of firm's operating efficiency?Though reviewing the documentary about operating efficiency we find that schoolars study this problem useing the regress analyzing based on traditional production function and data envelopment analysis(DEA) and financial index anayzing and marginal function and capital labor ratio coefficient etc. All the methods mainly based on macrodata. This paper we use the micro-data of company to evaluate the operating efficiency.Using factor analyzing based on financial index and comparing the factor score of three years from 2005 to 2007, we find that China Unicom's operating efficiency is under the averge level of benchmark corporates and has't improved under the concept of 3G from 2005 to 2007.In other words,institutional investor or the conception of technical progress expectation have faint effect on the changes of China Unicom's operating efficiency. Selecting benchmark corporates as post to evaluate the operating efficiency is a characteristic of this method ,which is basicallly sipmly and direct.This method is suit for the operation efficiency evaluation of agriculture listed companies because agriculture listed also face technical progress and marketing concept such as tax-free etc.

  15. Discharge data assimilation in a distributed hydrologic model for flood forecasting purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ercolani, G.; Castelli, F.

    2017-12-01

    Flood early warning systems benefit from accurate river flow forecasts, and data assimilation may improve their reliability. However, the actual enhancement that can be obtained in the operational practice should be investigated in detail and quantified. In this work we assess the benefits that the simultaneous assimilation of discharge observations at multiple locations can bring to flow forecasting through a distributed hydrologic model. The distributed model, MOBIDIC, is part of the operational flood forecasting chain of Tuscany Region in Central Italy. The assimilation system adopts a mixed variational-Monte Carlo approach to update efficiently initial river flow, soil moisture, and a parameter related to runoff production. The evaluation of the system is based on numerous hindcast experiments of real events. The events are characterized by significant rainfall that resulted in both high and relatively low flow in the river network. The area of study is the main basin of Tuscany Region, i.e. Arno river basin, which extends over about 8300 km2 and whose mean annual precipitation is around 800 mm. Arno's mainstream, with its nearly 240 km length, passes through major Tuscan cities, as Florence and Pisa, that are vulnerable to floods (e.g. flood of November 1966). The assimilation tests follow the usage of the model in the forecasting chain, employing the operational resolution in both space and time (500 m and 15 minutes respectively) and releasing new flow forecasts every 6 hours. The assimilation strategy is evaluated in respect to open loop simulations, i.e. runs that do not exploit discharge observations through data assimilation. We compare hydrographs in their entirety, as well as classical performance indexes, as error on peak flow and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The dependence of performances on lead time and location is assessed. Results indicate that the operational forecasting chain can benefit from the developed assimilation system, although with a

  16. Assessment of surface water resources availability using catchment modelling and the results of tracer studies in the mesoscale Migina Catchment, Rwanda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munyaneza, O.; Mukubwa, A.; Maskey, S.; Uhlenbrook, S.; Wenninger, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the present study, we developed a catchment hydrological model which can be used to inform water resources planning and decision making for better management of the Migina Catchment (257.4 km2). The semi-distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - the Hydrologic Modelling System) (version 3.5) was used with its soil moisture accounting, unit hydrograph, liner reservoir (for baseflow) and Muskingum-Cunge (river routing) methods. We used rainfall data from 12 stations and streamflow data from 5 stations, which were collected as part of this study over a period of 2 years (May 2009 and June 2011). The catchment was divided into five sub-catchments. The model parameters were calibrated separately for each sub-catchment using the observed streamflow data. Calibration results obtained were found acceptable at four stations with a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index (NS) of 0.65 on daily runoff at the catchment outlet. Due to the lack of sufficient and reliable data for longer periods, a model validation was not undertaken. However, we used results from tracer-based hydrograph separation from a previous study to compare our model results in terms of the runoff components. The model performed reasonably well in simulating the total flow volume, peak flow and timing as well as the portion of direct runoff and baseflow. We observed considerable disparities in the parameters (e.g. groundwater storage) and runoff components across the five sub-catchments, which provided insights into the different hydrological processes on a sub-catchment scale. We conclude that such disparities justify the need to consider catchment subdivisions if such parameters and components of the water cycle are to form the base for decision making in water resources planning in the catchment.

  17. Calibration of the APEX Model to Simulate Management Practice Effects on Runoff, Sediment, and Phosphorus Loss.

    PubMed

    Bhandari, Ammar B; Nelson, Nathan O; Sweeney, Daniel W; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, Anomaa; Pierzynski, Gary M; Janssen, Keith A; Barnes, Philip L

    2017-11-01

    Process-based computer models have been proposed as a tool to generate data for Phosphorus (P) Index assessment and development. Although models are commonly used to simulate P loss from agriculture using managements that are different from the calibration data, this use of models has not been fully tested. The objective of this study is to determine if the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model can accurately simulate runoff, sediment, total P, and dissolved P loss from 0.4 to 1.5 ha of agricultural fields with managements that are different from the calibration data. The APEX model was calibrated with field-scale data from eight different managements at two locations (management-specific models). The calibrated models were then validated, either with the same management used for calibration or with different managements. Location models were also developed by calibrating APEX with data from all managements. The management-specific models resulted in satisfactory performance when used to simulate runoff, total P, and dissolved P within their respective systems, with > 0.50, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.30, and percent bias within ±35% for runoff and ±70% for total and dissolved P. When applied outside the calibration management, the management-specific models only met the minimum performance criteria in one-third of the tests. The location models had better model performance when applied across all managements compared with management-specific models. Our results suggest that models only be applied within the managements used for calibration and that data be included from multiple management systems for calibration when using models to assess management effects on P loss or evaluate P Indices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  18. Minimum forest cover required for sustainable water flow regulation of a watershed: a case study in Jambi Province, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarigan, Suria; Wiegand, Kerstin; Sunarti; Slamet, Bejo

    2018-01-01

    In many tropical regions, the rapid expansion of monoculture plantations has led to a sharp decline in forest cover, potentially degrading the ability of watersheds to regulate water flow. Therefore, regional planners need to determine the minimum proportion of forest cover that is required to support adequate ecosystem services in these watersheds. However, to date, there has been little research on this issue, particularly in tropical areas where monoculture plantations are expanding at an alarming rate. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the influence of forest cover and oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations on the partitioning of rainfall into direct runoff and subsurface flow in a humid, tropical watershed in Jambi Province, Indonesia. To do this, we simulated streamflow with a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and observed several watersheds to derive the direct runoff coefficient (C) and baseflow index (BFI). The model had a strong performance, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.80-0.88 (calibration) and 0.80-0.85 (validation) and percent bias values of -2.9-1.2 (calibration) and 7.0-11.9 (validation). We found that the percentage of forest cover in a watershed was significantly negatively correlated with C and significantly positively correlated with BFI, whereas the rubber and oil palm plantation cover showed the opposite pattern. Our findings also suggested that at least 30 % of the forest cover was required in the study area for sustainable ecosystem services. This study provides new adjusted crop parameter values for monoculture plantations, particularly those that control surface runoff and baseflow processes, and it also describes the quantitative association between forest cover and flow indicators in a watershed, which will help regional planners in determining the minimum proportion of forest and the maximum proportion of plantation to ensure that a watershed can provide

  19. Integration of SRTM and TRMM date into the GIS-based hydrological model for the purpose of flood modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbari, A.; Abu Samah, A.; Othman, F.

    2012-04-01

    Due to land use and climate changes, more severe and frequent floods occur worldwide. Flood simulation as the first step in flood risk management can be robustly conducted with integration of GIS, RS and flood modeling tools. The primary goal of this research is to examine the practical use of public domain satellite data and GIS-based hydrologic model. Firstly, database development process is described. GIS tools and techniques were used in the light of relevant literature to achieve the appropriate database. Watershed delineation and parameterizations were carried out using cartographic DEM derived from digital topography at a scale of 1:25 000 with 30 m cell size and SRTM elevation data at 30 m cell size. The SRTM elevation dataset is evaluated and compared with cartographic DEM. With the assistance of statistical measures such as Correlation coefficient (r), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBias) or Percent of Error (PE). According to NSE index, SRTM-DEM can be used for watershed delineation and parameterization with 87% similarity with Topo-DEM in a complex and underdeveloped terrains. Primary TRMM (V6) data was used as satellite based hytograph for rainfall-runoff simulation. The SCS-CN approach was used for losses and kinematic routing method employed for hydrograph transformation through the reaches. It is concluded that TRMM estimates do not give adequate information about the storms as it can be drawn from the rain gauges. Event-based flood modeling using HEC-HMS proved that SRTM elevation dataset has the ability to obviate the lack of terrain data for hydrologic modeling where appropriate data for terrain modeling and simulation of hydrological processes is unavailable. However, TRMM precipitation estimates failed to explain the behavior of rainfall events and its resultant peak discharge and time of peak.

  20. Retrospective indexing (RI) - A computer-aided indexing technique

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchan, Ronald L.

    1990-01-01

    An account is given of a method for data base-updating designated 'computer-aided indexing' (CAI) which has been very efficiently implemented at NASA's Scientific and Technical Information Facility by means of retrospective indexing. Novel terms added to the NASA Thesaurus will therefore proceed directly into both the NASA-RECON aerospace information system and its portion of the ESA-Information Retrieval Service, giving users full access to material thus indexed. If a given term appears in the title of a record, it is given special weight. An illustrative graphic representation of the CAI search strategy is presented.

  1. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

  2. Hourly predictive Levenberg-Marquardt ANN and multi linear regression models for predicting of dew point temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad

    2012-08-01

    In this study, the ability of two models of multi linear regression (MLR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feed-forward neural network was examined to estimate the hourly dew point temperature. Dew point temperature is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid. This temperature can be useful in estimating meteorological variables such as fog, rain, snow, dew, and evapotranspiration and in investigating agronomical issues as stomatal closure in plants. The availability of hourly records of climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity and pressure) which could be used to predict dew point temperature initiated the practice of modeling. Additionally, the wind vector (wind speed magnitude and direction) and conceptual input of weather condition were employed as other input variables. The three quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, i.e. the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and absolute logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( {| {{{Log}}({{NS}})} |} ) were employed to evaluate the performances of the developed models. The results showed that applying wind vector and weather condition as input vectors along with meteorological variables could slightly increase the ANN and MLR predictive accuracy. The results also revealed that LM-NN was superior to MLR model and the best performance was obtained by considering all potential input variables in terms of different evaluation criteria.

  3. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2017-07-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  4. Temporal dynamics of catchment transit times from stable isotope data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Julian; Chun, Kwok P.; McGuire, Kevin J.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2015-06-01

    Time variant catchment transit time distributions are fundamental descriptors of catchment function but yet not fully understood, characterized, and modeled. Here we present a new approach for use with standard runoff and tracer data sets that is based on tracking of tracer and age information and time variant catchment mixing. Our new approach is able to deal with nonstationarity of flow paths and catchment mixing, and an irregular shape of the transit time distribution. The approach extracts information on catchment mixing from the stable isotope time series instead of prior assumptions of mixing or the shape of transit time distribution. We first demonstrate proof of concept of the approach with artificial data; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies in tracer and instantaneous transit times were >0.9. The model provides very accurate estimates of time variant transit times when the boundary conditions and fluxes are fully known. We then tested the model with real rainfall-runoff flow and isotope tracer time series from the H.J. Andrews Watershed 10 (WS10) in Oregon. Model efficiencies were 0.37 for the 18O modeling for a 2 year time series; the efficiencies increased to 0.86 for the second year underlying the need of long time tracer time series with a long overlap of tracer input and output. The approach was able to determine time variant transit time of WS10 with field data and showed how it follows the storage dynamics and related changes in flow paths where wet periods with high flows resulted in clearly shorter transit times compared to dry low flow periods.

  5. Computing daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Iowa by using the Flow Anywhere and Flow Duration Curve Transfer statistical methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linhart, S. Mike; Nania, Jon F.; Sanders, Curtis L.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2012-01-01

    -mean-square error ranged from 13.0 to 5.3 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.80 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 25.4 to 4.0 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.35. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.86 to 0.56. For the streamgage with the best agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, higher streamflows appear to be underestimated. For the streamgage with the worst agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, low flows appear to be overestimated whereas higher flows seem to be underestimated. Estimated cumulative streamflows for the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2009, are underestimated by -25.8 and -7.4 percent for the closest and poorest comparisons, respectively. For the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method, results of the validation study conducted by using the same six streamgages show that differences between the root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error ranged from 437 to 93.9 ft3/s, with the larger value signifying a greater occurrence of outliers between observed and estimated streamflows. Root-mean-square-error values ranged from 906 to 169 ft3/s. Values of the percent root-mean-square-error ranged from 67.0 to 25.6 percent. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow percent root-mean-square error ranged from 12.5 to 4.4 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.79 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 22.7 to 0.94 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.38. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.89 to 0.48. For the streamgage with the closest agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, there is relatively good agreement between observed and estimated streamflows. For the streamgage with the poorest agreement between observed and

  6. SymDex: increasing the efficiency of chemical fingerprint similarity searches for comparing large chemical libraries by using query set indexing.

    PubMed

    Tai, David; Fang, Jianwen

    2012-08-27

    The large sizes of today's chemical databases require efficient algorithms to perform similarity searches. It can be very time consuming to compare two large chemical databases. This paper seeks to build upon existing research efforts by describing a novel strategy for accelerating existing search algorithms for comparing large chemical collections. The quest for efficiency has focused on developing better indexing algorithms by creating heuristics for searching individual chemical against a chemical library by detecting and eliminating needless similarity calculations. For comparing two chemical collections, these algorithms simply execute searches for each chemical in the query set sequentially. The strategy presented in this paper achieves a speedup upon these algorithms by indexing the set of all query chemicals so redundant calculations that arise in the case of sequential searches are eliminated. We implement this novel algorithm by developing a similarity search program called Symmetric inDexing or SymDex. SymDex shows over a 232% maximum speedup compared to the state-of-the-art single query search algorithm over real data for various fingerprint lengths. Considerable speedup is even seen for batch searches where query set sizes are relatively small compared to typical database sizes. To the best of our knowledge, SymDex is the first search algorithm designed specifically for comparing chemical libraries. It can be adapted to most, if not all, existing indexing algorithms and shows potential for accelerating future similarity search algorithms for comparing chemical databases.

  7. Increased Tim-3 expression alleviates liver injury by regulating macrophage activation in MCD-induced NASH mice.

    PubMed

    Du, Xianhong; Wu, Zhuanchang; Xu, Yong; Liu, Yuan; Liu, Wen; Wang, Tixiao; Li, Chunyang; Zhang, Cuijuan; Yi, Fan; Gao, Lifen; Liang, Xiaohong; Ma, Chunhong

    2018-05-07

    As an immune checkpoint, Tim-3 plays roles in the regulation of both adaptive and innate immune cells including macrophages and is greatly involved in chronic liver diseases. However, the precise roles of Tim-3 in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) remain unstated. In the current study, we analyzed Tim-3 expression on different subpopulations of liver macrophages and further investigated the potential roles of Tim-3 on hepatic macrophages in methionine and choline-deficient diet (MCD)-induced NASH mice. The results of flow cytometry demonstrated the significantly increased expression of Tim-3 on all detected liver macrophage subsets in MCD mice, including F4/80 + CD11b + , F4/80 + CD68 + , and F4/80 + CD169 + macrophages. Remarkably, Tim-3 knockout (KO) significantly accelerated MCD-induced liver steatosis, displaying higher serum ALT, larger hepatic vacuolation, more liver lipid deposition, and more severe liver fibrosis. Moreover, compared with wild-type C57BL/6 mice, Tim-3 KO MCD mice demonstrated an enhanced expression of NOX2, NLRP3, and caspase-1 p20 together with increased generation of IL-1β and IL-18 in livers. In vitro studies demonstrated that Tim-3 negatively regulated the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and related downstream pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion of IL-1β and IL-18 in macrophages. Exogenous administration of N-Acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC), a small molecular inhibitor of ROS, remarkably suppressed caspase-1 p20 expression and IL-1β and IL-18 production in livers of Tim-3 KO mice, thus significantly reducing the severity of steatohepatitis induced by MCD. In conclusion, Tim-3 is a promising protector in MCD-induced steatohepatitis by controlling ROS and the associated pro-inflammatory cytokine production in macrophages.

  8. Energy-efficient downlink resource management in self-organized OFDMA-based two-tier femtocell networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahid, Adnan; Aslam, Saleem; Kim, Hyung Seok; Lee, Kyung-Geun

    2015-12-01

    Femtocell is a novel technology that is used for escalating indoor coverage as well as the capacity of traditional cellular networks. However, interference is the limiting factor for performance improvement due to co-channel deployment between macrocells and femtocells. The traditional network planning is not feasible because of the random deployment of femtocells. Therefore, self-organization approaches are the key to having successful deployment of femtocells. This study presents the joint resource block (RB) and power allocation task for the two-tier femtocell network in a self-organizing manner, with the concern to minimizing the impact of interference and maximizing the energy efficiency. In this study, we analyze the performance of the system in terms of the energy efficiency, which is composed of both the transmission and circuit power. Most of the previous studies investigate the performance regarding the throughput requirement of the two-tier femtocell network while the energy efficiency aspect is largely ignored. Here, the joint allocation task is modeled as a non-cooperative game which is demonstrated to exhibit pure and unique Nash equilibrium. In order to reduce the complexity of the proposed non-cooperative game, the joint RB and power allocation task is divided into two subproblems: an RB allocation and a particle swarm optimization-based power allocation. The analysis of the proposed game is carried out in terms of not only energy efficiency but also throughput. With practical 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Long-Term Evolution (LTE) parameters, the simulation results illustrate the superior performance of the proposed game as compared to the traditional methods. Also, the comparison is carried out with the joint allocation scheme which only considers the throughput as the objective function. The results illustrate that significant performance improvement is achieved in terms of energy efficiency with slight loss in the throughput. The

  9. Linear genetic programming application for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Yerdelen, Cahit

    2014-09-01

    In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been pronounced as a branch of computer science to model wide range of hydrological phenomena. A number of researches have been still comparing these techniques in order to find more effective approaches in terms of accuracy and applicability. In this study, we examined the ability of linear genetic programming (LGP) technique to model successive-station monthly streamflow process, as an applied alternative for streamflow prediction. A comparative efficiency study between LGP and three different artificial neural network algorithms, namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and radial basis function (RBF), has also been presented in this study. For this aim, firstly, we put forward six different successive-station monthly streamflow prediction scenarios subjected to training by LGP and FFBP using the field data recorded at two gauging stations on Çoruh River, Turkey. Based on Nash-Sutcliffe and root mean squared error measures, we then compared the efficiency of these techniques and selected the best prediction scenario. Eventually, GRNN and RBF algorithms were utilized to restructure the selected scenario and to compare with corresponding FFBP and LGP. Our results indicated the promising role of LGP for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction providing more accurate results than those of all the ANN algorithms. We found an explicit LGP-based expression evolved by only the basic arithmetic functions as the best prediction model for the river, which uses the records of the both target and upstream stations.

  10. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  11. Development of Semi-distributed ecohydrological model in the Rio Grande De Manati River Basin, Puerto Rico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S. G.; Ortiz, J.; Melendez, J.; Barreto, M.; Torres-Perez, J. L.; Guild, L. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are limited studies in Puerto Rico that shows the water resources availability and variability with respect to changing climates and land use. The main goal of the HICE-PR (Human Impacts to Coastal Ecosystems in Puerto Rico (HICE-PR): the Río Loco Watershed (southwest coast PR) project which was funded by NASA is to evaluate the impacts of land use/land cover changes on the quality and extent of coastal and marine ecosystems (CMEs) in two priority watersheds in Puerto Rico (Manatí and Guánica).The main objective of this study is to set up a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the analysis of hydrological processes in the Rio Grande de Manati river basin. SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) is a spatially distributed watershed model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds. For efficient use of distributed models for hydrological and scenario analysis, it is important that these models pass through a careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. The model was calibrated and validated using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.5. Keywords: Hydrological Modeling; SWAT; SUFI-2; Rio Grande De Manati; Puerto Rico

  12. Equivalent survival following liver transplantation in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis compared with patients with other liver diseases.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Christopher; Redden, David; Gray, Stephen; Eckhoff, Devin; Massoud, Omar; McGuire, Brendan; Alkurdi, Basem; Bloomer, Joseph; DuBay, Derek A

    2012-09-01

    Orthotopic liver transplantation (LT) in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is increasing in parallel with the obesity epidemic. This study retrospectively reviewed the clinical outcomes of LTs in NASH (n = 129) and non-NASH (n = 775) aetiologies carried out at a single centre between 1999 and 2009. Rates of 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival in NASH (90%, 88% and 85%, respectively) were comparable with those in non-NASH (92%, 86% and 80%, respectively) patients. Mortality within 4 months of LT was twice as high in NASH as in non-NASH patients (8.5% vs. 4.2%; P = 0.04). Compared with non-NASH patients, post-LT mortality in NASH patients was more commonly caused by infectious (38% vs. 26%; P < 0.05) or cardiac (19% vs. 7%; P < 0.05) aetiologies. Five-year survival was lower in NASH patients with a high-risk phenotype (age >60 years, body mass index >30 kg/m(2), with hypertension and diabetes) than in NASH patients without these characteristics (72% vs. 87%; P = 0.02). Subgroup analyses revealed that 5-year overall survival in NASH was equivalent to that in Laennec's cirrhosis (85% vs. 80%; P 0.87), but lower than that in cirrhosis of cryptogenic aetiology (85% vs. 96%; P = 0.04). Orthotopic LT in NASH was associated with increased early postoperative mortality, but 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were equivalent to those in non-NASH patients. © 2012 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  13. Explaining the variability of Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI): deconvolution of variability related to Light Use Efficiency and Canopy attributes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merlier, Elodie; Hmimina, Gabriel; Dufrêne, Eric; Soudani, Kamel

    2014-05-01

    The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) was designed as a proxy of the state of xanthophyll cycle which is used as a response of plants to excess of light (Gamon et al., 1990; 1992). Strong relationships between PRI and LUE were shown at leaf and canopy scales and over a wide range of species (Garbulsky et al., 2011). However, its use at canopy scale was shown to be significantly hampered by effects of confounding factors such as the PRI sensitivity to leaf pigment content (Gamon et al. 2001; Nakaji et al. 2006) and to canopy structure (Hilker et al. 2008). Several approaches aimed at correcting such effects and recent works focused on the deconvolution of LUE related and LUE unrelated PRI variability (Rahimzadeh-Bajgiran et al. 2012).In this study, the PRI variability at canopy scale is investigated over two years on three species (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Pinus sylvestris) growing under two water regimes. At daily scale, PRI variability is mainly explained by radiation conditions. As already reported at leaf scale in Hmimina et al. (2014), analysis of PRI responses to incoming photosynthetically active radiation over seasonal scale allowed to separate two sources of variability : a constitutive variability mainly related to canopy structure and leaf chlorophyll content and a facultative variability mainly related to LUE and soil moisture content. These results highlight the composite nature of PRI signal measured at canopy scale and the importance of disentangling its sources of variability in order to accurately assess ecosystem light use efficiency. Gamon JA, Field CB, Bilger W, Björkman O, Fredeen AL, Peñuelas J. 1990. Remote sensing of the xanthophyll cycle and chlorophyll fluorescence in sunflower leaves and canopies. Oecologia 85, 1-7. Gamon JA, Field CB, Fredeen A AL, Thayer S. 2001. Assessing photosynthetic downregulation in sunflower stands with an optically-based model. Photosynthesis Research 67, 113-125. Gamon JA, Peñuelas J, Field CB

  14. Neonatal monosodium glutamate treatment causes obesity, diabetes, and macrovesicular steatohepatitis with liver nodules in DIAR mice.

    PubMed

    Tsuneyama, Koichi; Nishida, Takeshi; Baba, Hayato; Taira, Shu; Fujimoto, Makoto; Nomoto, Kazuhiro; Hayashi, Shinichi; Miwa, Shigeharu; Nakajima, Takahiko; Sutoh, Mitsuko; Oda, Emu; Hokao, Ryoji; Imura, Johji

    2014-09-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the hepatic manifestation of metabolic syndrome (MS). Monosodium glutamate (MSG)-treated ICR mice is a useful model of MS and NASH, but it shows the different patterns of steatosis from human NASH. Because inbred aged DIAR (ddY, Institute for Animal Reproduction) mice spontaneously show the similar pattern of steatosis as NASH, we analyzed their liver pathology after administering MSG. MSG-treated DIAR mice (DIAR-MSG) and untreated DIAR mice (DIAR-controls) were sacrificed and assessed histopathologically at 29, 32, 40, 48, and 54 weeks of age. The NASH activity score, body mass index, blood glucose level, and oral glucose tolerance test were also assessed. The body mass index and blood glucose levels of DIAR-MSG were significantly higher than controls. The oral glucose tolerance test revealed a type 2 diabetes pattern in DIAR-MSG. The livers of DIAR-MSG mice showed macrovesicular steatosis, lobular inflammation with neutrophils, and ballooning degeneration after 29 weeks. At 54 weeks, mild fibrosis was observed in 5/6 DIAR-MSG and 2/5 DIAR-control mice. In imaging mass spectrometry analysis, cholesterol as well as triglyceride accumulated in the liver of DIAR-MSG mice. Atypical liver nodules were also observed after 32 weeks in DIAR-MSG, some with cellular and structural atypia mimicking human hepatocellular carcinoma. The NASH activity score of DIAR-MSG after 29 weeks was higher than that of control mice, suggesting the development of NASH. DIAR-MSG had NASH-like liver pathology and liver nodules typically associated with MS symptoms. DIAR-MSG provides a valuable animal model to analyze NASH pathogenesis and carcinogenesis. © 2014 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  15. Efficiency and Productivity of County-level Public Hospitals Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis Model and Malmquist Index in Anhui, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Nian-Nian; Wang, Cun-Hui; Ni, Hong; Wang, Heng

    2017-01-01

    Background: China began to implement the national medical and health system and public hospital reforms in 2009 and 2012, respectively. Anhui Province is one of the four pilot provinces, and the medical reform measures received wide attention nationwide. The effectiveness of the above reform needs to get attention. This study aimed to master the efficiency and productivity of county-level public hospitals based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Malmquist index in Anhui, China, and then provide improvement measures for the future hospital development. Methods: We chose 12 country-level hospitals based on geographical distribution and the economic development level in Anhui Province. Relevant data that were collected in the field and then sorted were provided by the administrative departments of the hospitals. DEA models were used to calculate the dynamic efficiency and Malmquist index factors for the 12 institutions. Results: During 2010–2015, the overall average relative service efficiency of 12 county-level public hospitals was 0.926, and the number of hospitals achieved an effective DEA for each year from 2010 to 2015 was 4, 6, 7, 7, 6, and 8, respectively, as measured using DEA. During this same period, the average overall production efficiency was 0.983, and the total productivity factor had declined. The overall production efficiency of five hospitals was >1, and the rest are <1 between 2010 and 2015. Conclusions: In 2010–2015, the relative service efficiency of 12 county-level public hospitals in Anhui Province showed a decreasing trend, and the service efficiency of each hospital changed. In the past 6 years, although some hospitals have been effective, the efficiency of the county-level public hospitals in Anhui Province has not improved significantly, and the total factor productivity has not been effectively improved. County-level public hospitals need to combine their own reality to find their own deficiencies. PMID:29176142

  16. Efficiency and Productivity of County-level Public Hospitals Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis Model and Malmquist Index in Anhui, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Nian-Nian; Wang, Cun-Hui; Ni, Hong; Wang, Heng

    2017-12-05

    China began to implement the national medical and health system and public hospital reforms in 2009 and 2012, respectively. Anhui Province is one of the four pilot provinces, and the medical reform measures received wide attention nationwide. The effectiveness of the above reform needs to get attention. This study aimed to master the efficiency and productivity of county-level public hospitals based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Malmquist index in Anhui, China, and then provide improvement measures for the future hospital development. We chose 12 country-level hospitals based on geographical distribution and the economic development level in Anhui Province. Relevant data that were collected in the field and then sorted were provided by the administrative departments of the hospitals. DEA models were used to calculate the dynamic efficiency and Malmquist index factors for the 12 institutions. During 2010-2015, the overall average relative service efficiency of 12 county-level public hospitals was 0.926, and the number of hospitals achieved an effective DEA for each year from 2010 to 2015 was 4, 6, 7, 7, 6, and 8, respectively, as measured using DEA. During this same period, the average overall production efficiency was 0.983, and the total productivity factor had declined. The overall production efficiency of five hospitals was >1, and the rest are <1 between 2010 and 2015. In 2010-2015, the relative service efficiency of 12 county-level public hospitals in Anhui Province showed a decreasing trend, and the service efficiency of each hospital changed. In the past 6 years, although some hospitals have been effective, the efficiency of the county-level public hospitals in Anhui Province has not improved significantly, and the total factor productivity has not been effectively improved. County-level public hospitals need to combine their own reality to find their own deficiencies.

  17. Meta-Storms: efficient search for similar microbial communities based on a novel indexing scheme and similarity score for metagenomic data.

    PubMed

    Su, Xiaoquan; Xu, Jian; Ning, Kang

    2012-10-01

    It has long been intriguing scientists to effectively compare different microbial communities (also referred as 'metagenomic samples' here) in a large scale: given a set of unknown samples, find similar metagenomic samples from a large repository and examine how similar these samples are. With the current metagenomic samples accumulated, it is possible to build a database of metagenomic samples of interests. Any metagenomic samples could then be searched against this database to find the most similar metagenomic sample(s). However, on one hand, current databases with a large number of metagenomic samples mostly serve as data repositories that offer few functionalities for analysis; and on the other hand, methods to measure the similarity of metagenomic data work well only for small set of samples by pairwise comparison. It is not yet clear, how to efficiently search for metagenomic samples against a large metagenomic database. In this study, we have proposed a novel method, Meta-Storms, that could systematically and efficiently organize and search metagenomic data. It includes the following components: (i) creating a database of metagenomic samples based on their taxonomical annotations, (ii) efficient indexing of samples in the database based on a hierarchical taxonomy indexing strategy, (iii) searching for a metagenomic sample against the database by a fast scoring function based on quantitative phylogeny and (iv) managing database by index export, index import, data insertion, data deletion and database merging. We have collected more than 1300 metagenomic data from the public domain and in-house facilities, and tested the Meta-Storms method on these datasets. Our experimental results show that Meta-Storms is capable of database creation and effective searching for a large number of metagenomic samples, and it could achieve similar accuracies compared with the current popular significance testing-based methods. Meta-Storms method would serve as a suitable

  18. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  19. Development, Testing, and Psychometric Qualities of the Nash Duty to Care Scale for Disaster Response.

    PubMed

    Nash, Tracy Jeanne

    2017-08-01

    Although nurses struggle with the decision to report for work during disaster events, there are no instruments to measure nurses' duty to care for disaster situations. The purpose of this study was to describe the development, testing, and psychometric qualities of the Nash Duty to Care Scale. A convenience sample of 409 registered nurses were recruited from 3 universities in the United States. Exploratory factor analysis resulted in a 19-item, 4-factor model explaining 67.34% of the variance. Internal consistency reliability was supported by Cronbach's alpha ranging from .81 to .91 for the 4-factor subscales and .92 for the total scale. The psychometrically sound instrument for measuring nurses' perceived duty to care for disasters is applicable to contemporary nursing practice, institutional disaster management plans, and patient health outcomes worldwide.

  20. Empirical Study on Total Factor Productive Energy Efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region-Analysis based on Malmquist Index and Window Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Qiang; Ding, Shuai; An, Jingwen

    2017-12-01

    This paper studies the energy efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and to finds out the trend of energy efficiency in order to improve the economic development quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on Malmquist index and window analysis model, this paper estimates the total factor energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region empirically by using panel data in this region from 1991 to 2014, and provides the corresponding political recommendations. The empirical result shows that, the total factor energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased from 1991 to 2014, mainly relies on advances in energy technology or innovation, and obvious regional differences in energy efficiency to exist. Throughout the window period of 24 years, the regional differences of energy efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shrank. There has been significant convergent trend in energy efficiency after 2000, mainly depends on the diffusion and spillover of energy technologies.

  1. The effect of early berthing prospects on the energy efficiency operational index in oil tanker vessels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acomi, N.; Acomi, O. C.

    2016-08-01

    Marine pollution is one of the main concerns of our society. In order to reduce air pollution produced by ships, the International Maritime Organization has developed technical, operational and management measures. Part of the operational measures refers to CO2 emissions that contribute to the energy efficiency of the vessel. The difficulty in assessing the energy efficiency of the vessel rests with the diversity of voyage parameters, including quantity of cargo, distance and type of fuel in use. Assessing the energy efficiency of the vessel is thus not a matter of determining the absolute value of the CO2, but of providing a meaningful construct to enable tracking performance trends over time, for the same ship, a fleet of ships or across the industry. This concept is the Energy Efficiency Operational Index, EEOI. The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of a well predicted voyage on the EEOI value. The method used consists in a comparative analysis of two situations regarding berthing prospects: the real passage plan and an early prediction that supposes the vessel to arrive on time as required. The results of the study represent a monitoring tool for the ship owners to assess the EEOI from the early stage of designing the berthing prospects.

  2. Challenges in measuring feed efficiency

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The term feed efficiency is vague, and is defined differently by people. Historically, feed efficiency has been defined as the feed:gain (F:G) ratio or the inverse (G:F). Indexes have been developed to rank animals for feed efficiency. These indexes include residual feed intake (RFI) and residual...

  3. Indexed variation graphs for efficient and accurate resistome profiling.

    PubMed

    Rowe, Will P M; Winn, Martyn D

    2018-05-14

    Antimicrobial resistance remains a major threat to global health. Profiling the collective antimicrobial resistance genes within a metagenome (the "resistome") facilitates greater understanding of antimicrobial resistance gene diversity and dynamics. In turn, this can allow for gene surveillance, individualised treatment of bacterial infections and more sustainable use of antimicrobials. However, resistome profiling can be complicated by high similarity between reference genes, as well as the sheer volume of sequencing data and the complexity of analysis workflows. We have developed an efficient and accurate method for resistome profiling that addresses these complications and improves upon currently available tools. Our method combines a variation graph representation of gene sets with an LSH Forest indexing scheme to allow for fast classification of metagenomic sequence reads using similarity-search queries. Subsequent hierarchical local alignment of classified reads against graph traversals enables accurate reconstruction of full-length gene sequences using a scoring scheme. We provide our implementation, GROOT, and show it to be both faster and more accurate than a current reference-dependent tool for resistome profiling. GROOT runs on a laptop and can process a typical 2 gigabyte metagenome in 2 minutes using a single CPU. Our method is not restricted to resistome profiling and has the potential to improve current metagenomic workflows. GROOT is written in Go and is available at https://github.com/will-rowe/groot (MIT license). will.rowe@stfc.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  4. Privacy preserving index for encrypted electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu-Chi; Horng, Gwoboa; Lin, Yi-Jheng; Chen, Kuo-Chang

    2013-12-01

    With the development of electronic systems, privacy has become an important security issue in real-life. In medical systems, privacy of patients' electronic medical records (EMRs) must be fully protected. However, to combine the efficiency and privacy, privacy preserving index is introduced to preserve the privacy, where the EMR can be efficiently accessed by this patient or specific doctor. In the literature, Goh first proposed a secure index scheme with keyword search over encrypted data based on a well-known primitive, Bloom filter. In this paper, we propose a new privacy preserving index scheme, called position index (P-index), with keyword search over the encrypted data. The proposed index scheme is semantically secure against the adaptive chosen keyword attack, and it also provides flexible space, lower false positive rate, and search privacy. Moreover, it does not rely on pairing, a complicate computation, and thus can search over encrypted electronic medical records from the cloud server efficiently.

  5. Strategic trade between two regions with partial local consumer protection - General setup and nash equilibria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iordanov, Iordan V.; Vassilev, Andrey A.

    2017-12-01

    We construct a model of the trade relations between two regions for the case when the trading entities (consumers) compete for a scarce good and there is an element of strategic interdependence in the trading process. Additionally, local consumers enjoy partial protection in the form of guaranteed access to a part of the locally-supplied quantity of the good. The model is formulated for the general asymmetric case, where the two regions differ in terms of parameters such as income, size of the local market supply, degree of protection and transportation costs. For this general model we establish the existence of Nash equilibria and obtain their form as a function of the model parameters, producing a typology of the equilibria. This is a required step in order to rigorously study various types of price dynamics for the model.

  6. Quality indexing with computer-aided lexicography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchan, Ronald L.

    1992-01-01

    Indexing with computers is a far cry from indexing with the first indexing tool, the manual card sorter. With the aid of computer-aided lexicography, both indexing and indexing tools can provide standardization, consistency, and accuracy, resulting in greater quality control than ever before. A brief survey of computer activity in indexing is presented with detailed illustrations from NASA activity. Applications from techniques mentioned, such as Retrospective Indexing (RI), can be made to many indexing systems. In addition to improving the quality of indexing with computers, the improved efficiency with which certain tasks can be done is demonstrated.

  7. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with dysbiosis independent of body mass index and insulin resistance.

    PubMed

    Da Silva, Hannah E; Teterina, Anastasia; Comelli, Elena M; Taibi, Amel; Arendt, Bianca M; Fischer, Sandra E; Lou, Wendy; Allard, Johane P

    2018-01-23

    This study aimed to determine if there is an association between dysbiosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) independent of obesity and insulin resistance (IR). This is a prospective cross-sectional study assessing the intestinal microbiome (IM) of 39 adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD (15 simple steatosis [SS]; 24 nonalcoholic steatohepatitis [NASH]) and 28 healthy controls (HC). IM composition (llumina MiSeq Platform) in NAFLD patients compared to HC were identified by two statistical methods (Metastats, Wilcoxon). Selected taxa was validated using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Metabolites in feces and serum were also analyzed. In NAFLD, 8 operational taxonomic units, 6 genera, 6 families and 2 phyla (Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes) were less abundant and; 1 genus (Lactobacillus) and 1 family (Lactobacillaceae) were more abundant compared to HC. Lower abundance in both NASH and SS patients compared to HC were confirmed by qPCR for Ruminococcus, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Coprococcus. No difference was found between NASH and SS. This lower abundance in NAFLD (NASH+SS) was independent of BMI and IR. NAFLD patients had higher concentrations of fecal propionate and isobutyric acid and serum 2-hydroxybutyrate and L-lactic acid. These findings suggest a potential role for a specific IM community and functional profile in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

  8. SWAT model uncertainty analysis, calibration and validation for runoff simulation in the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thavhana, M. P.; Savage, M. J.; Moeletsi, M. E.

    2018-06-01

    The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was calibrated for the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa in order to simulate runoff. The model was executed through QSWAT which is an interface between SWAT and QGIS. Data from four weather stations and four weir stations evenly distributed over the catchment were used. The model was run for a 33-year period of 1983-2015. Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation were conducted using the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm through its interface with SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedure (SWAT-CUP). The calibration process was conducted for the period 1986 to 2005 while the validation process was from 2006 to 2015. Six model efficiency measures were used, namely: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index, root mean square error (RMSE)-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor were used. Initial results indicated an over-estimation of low flows with regression slope of less than 0.7. Twelve model parameters were applied for sensitivity analysis with four (ALPHA_BF, CN2, GW_DELAY and SOL_K) found to be more distinguishable and sensitive to streamflow (p < 0.05). The SUFI-2 algorithm through the interface with the SWAT-CUP was capable of capturing the model's behaviour, with calibration results showing an R2 of 0.63, NSE index of 0.66, RSR of 0.56 and a positive PBIAS of 16.3 while validation results revealed an R2 of 0.52, NSE of 0.48, RSR of 0.72 and PBIAS of 19.90. The model produced P-factor of 0.67 and R-factor of 0.68 during calibration and during validation, 0.69 and 0.53 respectively. Although performance indicators yielded fair and acceptable results, the P-factor was still below the recommended model performance of 70%. Apart from the unacceptable P-factor values, the results obtained in this study demonstrate acceptable model performance during calibration while

  9. Development of genetic algorithm-based optimization module in WHAT system for hydrograph analysis and model application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Kyoung Jae; Park, Youn Shik; Kim, Jonggun; Shin, Yong-Chul; Kim, Nam Won; Kim, Seong Joon; Jeon, Ji-Hong; Engel, Bernard A.

    2010-07-01

    Many hydrologic and water quality computer models have been developed and applied to assess hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes. These models are typically calibrated and validated prior to their application. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed and compared with the filtered direct runoff using BFLOW and the Eckhardt digital filter (with a default BFI max value of 0.80 and filter parameter value of 0.98), both available in the Web GIS-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool, called WHAT. The R2 value and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient values were 0.68 and 0.64 with BFLOW, and 0.66 and 0.63 with the Eckhardt digital filter. Although these results indicate that the L-THIA model estimates direct runoff reasonably well, the filtered direct runoff values using BFLOW and Eckhardt digital filter with the default BFI max and filter parameter values do not reflect hydrological and hydrogeological situations in the LEC watershed. Thus, a BFI max GA-Analyzer module (BFI max Genetic Algorithm-Analyzer module) was developed and integrated into the WHAT system for determination of the optimum BFI max parameter and filter parameter of the Eckhardt digital filter. With the automated recession curve analysis method and BFI max GA-Analyzer module of the WHAT system, the optimum BFI max value of 0.491 and filter parameter value of 0.987 were determined for the LEC watershed. The comparison of L-THIA estimates with filtered direct runoff using an optimized BFI max and filter parameter resulted in an R2 value of 0.66 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value of 0.63. However, L-THIA estimates calibrated with the optimized BFI max and filter parameter increased by 33% and estimated NPS pollutant loadings increased by more than 20%. This indicates L-THIA model direct runoff estimates can be incorrect by 33% and NPS pollutant loading estimation by more than 20%, if the accuracy of the baseflow

  10. Apnoeic-hypopnoeic episodes during obstructive sleep apnoea are associated with histological nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Poonam; Nugent, Clarke; Afendy, Arian; Bai, Chunhong; Bhatia, Priya; Afendy, Mariam; Fang, Yun; Elariny, Hazem; Goodman, Zachary; Younossi, Zobair M

    2008-09-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and obstructive sleep apnoea are associated with metabolic syndrome and atherosclerotic heart disease. This study evaluates the potential association between the NAFLD subtypes and a number of polysomnographical (PSG) parameters. This study included patients undergoing bariatric surgery with extensive clinical and histological data for whom complete PSG data before surgery were also available. Excess alcohol intake and other causes of liver disease were excluded. Apnoea, hypopnoea and apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI) were calculated as described previously. In this study, a total of 101 patients [77 nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and 22 non-NASH controls] with PSG data were included (age 42.9 +/- 11.4 years, body mass index 51.6 +/- 9.5 kg/m(2), fasting serum glucose 117.4 +/- 53.4 mg/dl, fasting serum triglycerides 171.3 +/- 82.9 mg/dl, 58% hypertension and 33% diabetes mellitus). Subjects with histological NASH had significantly lower lowest desaturation (77 vs. 85%, P=0.006), lower mean nocturnal oxygen saturation (91 vs. 93%, P=0.05), higher AHI (35 vs. 22, P=0.03), higher respiratory disturbance index (46 vs. 21, P=0.02) and higher alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio (1.4 vs. 1.3, P=0.05) compared with non-NASH controls. In multivariate analysis, the lowest desaturation (P=0.04) was independently associated with histological NASH. Lowest desaturation and mean nocturnal oxygen saturation were significantly lower in subjects with fibrosis (76 vs. 85%, P=0.004 and 90.4 vs. 93.0%, P=0.02). Our results suggest that the frequent nocturnal hypoxic episodes in NAFLD patients may be a risk factor for developing NASH. Additional studies are needed to study the effect of optimizing sleep apnoea management on the outcomes of patients with NAFLD.

  11. An efficient indexing scheme for binary feature based biometric database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, P.; Sana, A.; Mehrotra, H.; Hwang, C. Jinshong

    2007-04-01

    The paper proposes an efficient indexing scheme for binary feature template using B+ tree. In this scheme the input image is decomposed into approximation, vertical, horizontal and diagonal coefficients using the discrete wavelet transform. The binarized approximation coefficient at second level is divided into four quadrants of equal size and Hamming distance (HD) for each quadrant with respect to sample template of all ones is measured. This HD value of each quadrant is used to generate upper and lower range values which are inserted into B+ tree. The nodes of tree at first level contain the lower and upper range values generated from HD of first quadrant. Similarly, lower and upper range values for the three quadrants are stored in the second, third and fourth level respectively. Finally leaf node contains the set of identifiers. At the time of identification, the test image is used to generate HD for four quadrants. Then the B+ tree is traversed based on the value of HD at every node and terminates to leaf nodes with set of identifiers. The feature vector for each identifier is retrieved from the particular bin of secondary memory and matched with test feature template to get top matches. The proposed scheme is implemented on ear biometric database collected at IIT Kanpur. The system is giving an overall accuracy of 95.8% at penetration rate of 34%.

  12. Subspace-Aware Index Codes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kailkhura, Bhavya; Theagarajan, Lakshmi Narasimhan; Varshney, Pramod K.

    In this paper, we generalize the well-known index coding problem to exploit the structure in the source-data to improve system throughput. In many applications (e.g., multimedia), the data to be transmitted may lie (or can be well approximated) in a low-dimensional subspace. We exploit this low-dimensional structure of the data using an algebraic framework to solve the index coding problem (referred to as subspace-aware index coding) as opposed to the traditional index coding problem which is subspace-unaware. Also, we propose an efficient algorithm based on the alternating minimization approach to obtain near optimal index codes for both subspace-aware and -unawaremore » cases. In conclusion, our simulations indicate that under certain conditions, a significant throughput gain (about 90%) can be achieved by subspace-aware index codes over conventional subspace-unaware index codes.« less

  13. Subspace-Aware Index Codes

    DOE PAGES

    Kailkhura, Bhavya; Theagarajan, Lakshmi Narasimhan; Varshney, Pramod K.

    2017-04-12

    In this paper, we generalize the well-known index coding problem to exploit the structure in the source-data to improve system throughput. In many applications (e.g., multimedia), the data to be transmitted may lie (or can be well approximated) in a low-dimensional subspace. We exploit this low-dimensional structure of the data using an algebraic framework to solve the index coding problem (referred to as subspace-aware index coding) as opposed to the traditional index coding problem which is subspace-unaware. Also, we propose an efficient algorithm based on the alternating minimization approach to obtain near optimal index codes for both subspace-aware and -unawaremore » cases. In conclusion, our simulations indicate that under certain conditions, a significant throughput gain (about 90%) can be achieved by subspace-aware index codes over conventional subspace-unaware index codes.« less

  14. Effects of Silicon vs. Hydroxytyrosol-Enriched Restructured Pork on Liver Oxidation Status of Aged Rats Fed High-Saturated/High-Cholesterol Diets.

    PubMed

    Santos-López, Jorge A; Garcimartín, Alba; Merino, Pinar; López-Oliva, M Elvira; Bastida, Sara; Benedí, Juana; Sánchez-Muniz, Francisco J

    2016-01-01

    Pork is an essential component of the diet that has been linked with major degenerative diseases and development of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Previous studies have. Previous studies have demonstrated the in vitro antioxidant activity of silicon (Si). Furthermore, when Si is added to restructured pork (RP) strongly counterbalances the negative effect of high-cholesterol-ingestion, acting as an active hypocholesterolemic and hypolipemic dietary ingredient in aged rats. This study was designed to evaluate the effects of Si vs hydroxytyrosol (HxT) RP on liver antioxidant defense in aged rats fed cholesterol-enriched high saturated/high cholesterol diets as a NASH model. Four diets were prepared: Control RP diet (C) with non-added cholesterol; Cholesterol-enriched high-saturated/high-cholesterol control RP diet (CHOL-C) with added cholesterol and cholic acid; Si- or HxT-RP cholesterol-enriched high-saturated/high-cholesterol diets (CHOL-Si and CHOL-HxT). Groups of six male Wistar rats (1-yr old) were fed these modified diets for eight weeks. Total cholesterol, hepatosomatic index, liver Nrf2 and antioxidant (CAT, SOD, GSH, GSSG, GR, GPx) markers were determined. Both CHOL-Si and CHOL-HxT diets enhanced the liver antioxidant status, reduced hepatosomatic index and increased SOD actvity. Hydrogen peroxide removal seemed to be involved, explaining that the value of redox index was even lower than C without changing the CAT activity. CHOL-Si results were quite better than CHOL-HxT in most measured parameters. Our study suggests that Si incorporated into RP matrix was able to counterbalance, more efficiently than HxT, the deleterious effect of consuming a high-saturated/high-cholesterol diet, by improving the liver antioxidant defenses in the context of NASH.

  15. Effects of Silicon vs. Hydroxytyrosol-Enriched Restructured Pork on Liver Oxidation Status of Aged Rats Fed High-Saturated/High-Cholesterol Diets

    PubMed Central

    Merino, Pinar; López-Oliva, M. Elvira; Bastida, Sara; Benedí, Juana; Sánchez-Muniz, Francisco J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Pork is an essential component of the diet that has been linked with major degenerative diseases and development of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Previous studies have. Previous studies have demonstrated the in vitro antioxidant activity of silicon (Si). Furthermore, when Si is added to restructured pork (RP) strongly counterbalances the negative effect of high-cholesterol-ingestion, acting as an active hypocholesterolemic and hypolipemic dietary ingredient in aged rats. Objective This study was designed to evaluate the effects of Si vs hydroxytyrosol (HxT) RP on liver antioxidant defense in aged rats fed cholesterol-enriched high saturated/high cholesterol diets as a NASH model. Methods Four diets were prepared: Control RP diet (C) with non-added cholesterol; Cholesterol-enriched high-saturated/high-cholesterol control RP diet (CHOL-C) with added cholesterol and cholic acid; Si- or HxT-RP cholesterol-enriched high-saturated/high-cholesterol diets (CHOL-Si and CHOL-HxT). Groups of six male Wistar rats (1-yr old) were fed these modified diets for eight weeks. Total cholesterol, hepatosomatic index, liver Nrf2 and antioxidant (CAT, SOD, GSH, GSSG, GR, GPx) markers were determined. Results Both CHOL-Si and CHOL-HxT diets enhanced the liver antioxidant status, reduced hepatosomatic index and increased SOD actvity. Hydrogen peroxide removal seemed to be involved, explaining that the value of redox index was even lower than C without changing the CAT activity. CHOL-Si results were quite better than CHOL-HxT in most measured parameters. Conclusions Our study suggests that Si incorporated into RP matrix was able to counterbalance, more efficiently than HxT, the deleterious effect of consuming a high-saturated/high-cholesterol diet, by improving the liver antioxidant defenses in the context of NASH. PMID:26807847

  16. Operationally efficient propulsion system study (OEPSS) data book. Volume 7; Launch Operations Index (LOI) Design Features and Options

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziese, James M.

    1992-01-01

    A design tool of figure of merit was developed that allows the operability of a propulsion system design to be measured. This Launch Operations Index (LOI) relates Operations Efficiency to System Complexity. The figure of Merit can be used by conceptual designers to compare different propulsion system designs based on their impact on launch operations. The LOI will improve the design process by making sure direct launch operations experience is a necessary feedback to the design process.

  17. Battle for Climate and Scarcity Rents: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case.

    PubMed

    Kagan, Mark; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Withagen, Cees

    Industria imports oil, produces final goods and wishes to mitigate global warming. Oilrabia exports oil and buys final goods from the other country. Industria uses the carbon tax to impose an import tariff on oil and steal some of Oilrabia's scarcity rent. Conversely, Oilrabia has monopoly power and sets the oil price to steal some of Industria's climate rent. We analyze the relative speeds of oil extraction and carbon accumulation under these strategic interactions for various production function specifications and compare these with the efficient and competitive outcomes. We prove that for the class of HARA production functions, the oil price is initially higher and subsequently lower in the open-loop Nash equilibrium than in the efficient outcome. The oil extraction rate is thus initially too low and in later stages too high. The HARA class includes linear, loglinear and semi-loglinear demand functions as special cases. For non-HARA production functions, Oilrabia may in the open-loop Nash equilibrium initially price oil lower than the efficient level, thus resulting in more oil extraction and climate damages. We also contrast the open-loop Nash and efficient outcomes numerically with the feedback Nash outcomes. We find that the optimal carbon tax path in the feedback Nash equilibrium is flatter than in the open-loop Nash equilibrium. It turns out that for certain demand functions using the carbon tax as an import tariff may hurt consumers' welfare as the resulting user cost of oil is so high that the fall in welfare wipes out the gain from higher tariff revenues.

  18. Pipelining Architecture of Indexing Using Agglomerative Clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyal, Deepika; Goyal, Deepti; Gupta, Parul

    2010-11-01

    The World Wide Web is an interlinked collection of billions of documents. Ironically the huge size of this collection has become an obstacle for information retrieval. To access the information from Internet, search engine is used. Search engine retrieve the pages from indexer. This paper introduce a novel pipelining technique for structuring the core index-building system that substantially reduces the index construction time and also clustering algorithm that aims at partitioning the set of documents into ordered clusters so that the documents within the same cluster are similar and are being assigned the closer document identifiers. After assigning to the clusters it creates the hierarchy of index so that searching is efficient. It will make the super cluster then mega cluster by itself. The pipeline architecture will create the index in such a way that it will be efficient in space and time saving manner. It will direct the search from higher level to lower level of index or higher level of clusters to lower level of cluster so that the user gets the possible match result in time saving manner. As one cluster is making by taking only two clusters so it search is limited to two clusters for lower level of index and so on. So it is efficient in time saving manner.

  19. The Effect of Metformin and Standard Therapy Versus Standard Therapy Alone in Nondiabetic Patients with Insulin Resistance and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): A Pilot Trial

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    histology in nondiabetic patients with insulin resistance and NASH. Decrease in BMI through diet and exercise significantly improved HOMA - IR scores, serum...BMI through diet and exercise significantly improved HOMA - IR scores, serum aminotransferases and liver histology. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY...insulin resistance (or HOMA - IR ) score was calculated using the formula: fasting insulin (mIU/ml) fasting glu- cose (mg/dl)/405 [Matthews et al. 1985

  20. Indexing and retrieval of MPEG compressed video

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobla, Vikrant; Doermann, David S.

    1998-04-01

    To keep pace with the increased popularity of digital video as an archival medium, the development of techniques for fast and efficient analysis of ideo streams is essential. In particular, solutions to the problems of storing, indexing, browsing, and retrieving video data from large multimedia databases are necessary to a low access to these collections. Given that video is often stored efficiently in a compressed format, the costly overhead of decompression can be reduced by analyzing the compressed representation directly. In earlier work, we presented compressed domain parsing techniques which identified shots, subshots, and scenes. In this article, we present efficient key frame selection, feature extraction, indexing, and retrieval techniques that are directly applicable to MPEG compressed video. We develop a frame type independent representation which normalizes spatial and temporal features including frame type, frame size, macroblock encoding, and motion compensation vectors. Features for indexing are derived directly from this representation and mapped to a low- dimensional space where they can be accessed using standard database techniques. Spatial information is used as primary index into the database and temporal information is used to rank retrieved clips and enhance the robustness of the system. The techniques presented enable efficient indexing, querying, and retrieval of compressed video as demonstrated by our system which typically takes a fraction of a second to retrieve similar video scenes from a database, with over 95 percent recall.

  1. Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Feng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-03-01

    An experimental seasonal drought forecasting system is developed based on 29-year (1982-2010) seasonal meteorological hindcasts generated by the climate models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. This system made use of a bias correction and spatial downscaling method, and a distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrologic model. DTVGM was calibrated using observed daily hydrological data and its streamflow simulations achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.727 and 0.724 during calibration (1978-1995) and validation (1996-2005) periods, respectively, at the Danjiangkou reservoir station. The experimental seasonal drought forecasting system (known as NMME-DTVGM) is used to generate seasonal drought forecasts. The forecasts were evaluated against the reference forecasts (i.e., persistence forecast and climatological forecast). The NMME-DTVGM drought forecasts have higher detectability and accuracy and lower false alarm rate than the reference forecasts at different lead times (from 1 to 4 months) during the cold-dry season. No apparent advantage is shown in drought predictions during spring and summer seasons because of a long memory of the initial conditions in spring and a lower predictive skill for precipitation in summer. Overall, the NMME-based seasonal drought forecasting system has meaningful skill in predicting drought several months in advance, which can provide critical information for drought preparedness and response planning as well as the sustainable practice of water resource conservation over the basin.

  2. A simple analytical infiltration model for short-duration rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Kaiwen; Yang, Xiaohua; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming

    2017-12-01

    Many infiltration models have been proposed to simulate infiltration process. Different initial soil conditions and non-uniform initial water content can lead to infiltration simulation errors, especially for short-duration rainfall (SHR). Few infiltration models are specifically derived to eliminate the errors caused by the complex initial soil conditions. We present a simple analytical infiltration model for SHR infiltration simulation, i.e., Short-duration Infiltration Process model (SHIP model). The infiltration simulated by 5 models (i.e., SHIP (high) model, SHIP (middle) model, SHIP (low) model, Philip model and Parlange model) were compared based on numerical experiments and soil column experiments. In numerical experiments, SHIP (middle) and Parlange models had robust solutions for SHR infiltration simulation of 12 typical soils under different initial soil conditions. The absolute values of percent bias were less than 12% and the values of Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency were greater than 0.83. Additionally, in soil column experiments, infiltration rate fluctuated in a range because of non-uniform initial water content. SHIP (high) and SHIP (low) models can simulate an infiltration range, which successfully covered the fluctuation range of the observed infiltration rate. According to the robustness of solutions and the coverage of fluctuation range of infiltration rate, SHIP model can be integrated into hydrologic models to simulate SHR infiltration process and benefit the flood forecast.

  3. Linking Stream Dissolved Oxygen with the Dynamic Environmental Drivers across the Pacific Coast of U.S.A.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araya, F. Z.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    This study utilized a systematic data analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of stream dissolved oxygen (DO) with the hydro-climatic and biogeochemical drivers across the U.S. Pacific Coast. Multivariate statistical techniques of Pearson correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and factor analysis were applied to a complex water quality dataset (1998-2015) at 35 water quality monitoring stations of USGS NWIS and EPA STORET. Power-law based partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with a bootstrap Monte Carlo procedure (1000 iterations) were developed to reliably estimate the relative linkages by resolving multicollinearity (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE = 0.50-0.94). Based on the dominant drivers, four environmental regimes have been identified and adequately described the system-data variances. In Pacific North West and Southern California, water temperature was the most dominant driver of DO in majority of the streams. However, in Central and Northern California, stream DO was controlled by multiple drivers (i.e., water temperature, pH, stream flow, and total phosphorus), exhibiting a transitional environmental regime. Further, total phosphorus (TP) appeared to be the limiting nutrient for most streams. The estimated linkages and insights would be useful to identify management priorities to achieve healthy coastal stream ecosystems across the Pacific Coast of U.S.A. and similar regions around the world. Keywords: Data analytics, water quality, coastal streams, dissolved oxygen, environmental regimes, Pacific Coast, United States.

  4. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  5. Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

  6. Development of seasonal flow outlook model for Ganges-Brahmaputra Basins in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, Sazzad; Haque Khan, Raihanul; Gautum, Dilip Kumar; Karmaker, Ripon; Hossain, Amirul

    2016-10-01

    Bangladesh is crisscrossed by the branches and tributaries of three main river systems, the Ganges, Bramaputra and Meghna (GBM). The temporal variation of water availability of those rivers has an impact on the different water usages such as irrigation, urban water supply, hydropower generation, navigation etc. Thus, seasonal flow outlook can play important role in various aspects of water management. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in Bangladesh provides short term and medium term flood forecast, and there is a wide demand from end-users about seasonal flow outlook for agricultural purposes. The objective of this study is to develop a seasonal flow outlook model in Bangladesh based on rainfall forecast. It uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal precipitation, temperature forecast to simulate HYDROMAD hydrological model. Present study is limited for Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins. ARIMA correction is applied to correct the model error. The performance of the model is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The model result shows good performance with R2 value of 0.78 and NSE of 0.61 for the Brahmaputra River Basin, and R2 value of 0.72 and NSE of 0.59 for the Ganges River Basin for the period of May to July 2015. The result of the study indicates strong potential to make seasonal outlook to be operationalized.

  7. Statistical downscaling rainfall using artificial neural network: significantly wetter Bangkok?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vu, Minh Tue; Aribarg, Thannob; Supratid, Siriporn; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2016-11-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) is an established technique with a flexible mathematical structure that is capable of identifying complex nonlinear relationships between input and output data. The present study utilizes ANN as a method of statistically downscaling global climate models (GCMs) during the rainy season at meteorological site locations in Bangkok, Thailand. The study illustrates the applications of the feed forward back propagation using large-scale predictor variables derived from both the ERA-Interim reanalyses data and present day/future GCM data. The predictors are first selected over different grid boxes surrounding Bangkok region and then screened by using principal component analysis (PCA) to filter the best correlated predictors for ANN training. The reanalyses downscaled results of the present day climate show good agreement against station precipitation with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.65. The final downscaled results for four GCMs show an increasing trend of precipitation for rainy season over Bangkok by the end of the twenty-first century. The extreme values of precipitation determined using statistical indices show strong increases of wetness. These findings will be useful for policy makers in pondering adaptation measures due to flooding such as whether the current drainage network system is sufficient to meet the changing climate and to plan for a range of related adaptation/mitigation measures.

  8. Hydrologic Evaluation of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis for Nanliu River Basin in Humid Southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yinjun; Xie, Qiongying; Lu, Yuan; Hu, Baoqing

    2017-06-01

    The accuracy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) daily accumulated precipitation products (3B42RTV7 and 3B42V7) was evaluated for a small basin (the Nanliu river basin). A direct comparison was performed against gauge observations from a period of 9 years (2000-2009) at temporal and spatial scales. The results show that the temporal-spatial precipitation characteristics of the Nanliu river basin are highly consistent with 3B42V7 relative to 3B42RTV7, with higher correlation coefficient (CC) approximately 0.9 at all temporal scales except for the daily scale and a lower relative bias percentage. 3B42V7 slightly overestimates precipitation at all temporal scales except the yearly scale; it slightly underestimates the precipitation at the daily spatial scale. The results also reveal that the precision of TMPA products increases with longer time-aggregated data, and the detection capability of daily TMPA precipitation products are enhanced by augmentation with daily precipitation rates. In addition, daily TMPA products were input into the Xin'anjiang hydrologic model; the results show that 3B42V7-based simulated outputs were well in line with actual stream flow observations, with a high CC (0.90) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, 0.79), and the results adequately captured the pattern of the observed flow curve.

  9. Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Artan, Guleid A.; Tokar, S.A.; Gautam, D.K.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Shrestha, M.S.

    2011-01-01

    In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32 000 km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC_RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC_RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC_RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction.

  10. A mathematical model for the transfer of soil solutes to runoff under water scouring.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ting; Wang, Quanjiu; Wu, Laosheng; Zhang, Pengyu; Zhao, Guangxu; Liu, Yanli

    2016-11-01

    The transfer of nutrients from soil to runoff often causes unexpected pollution in water bodies. In this study, a mathematical model that relates to the detachment of soil particles by water flow and the degree of mixing between overland flow and soil nutrients was proposed. The model assumes that the mixing depth is an integral of average water flow depth, and it was evaluated by experiments with three water inflow rates to bare soil surfaces and to surfaces with eight treatments of different stone coverages. The model predicted outflow rates were compared with the experimentally observed data to test the accuracy of the infiltration parameters obtained by curve fitting the models to the data. Further analysis showed that the comprehensive mixing coefficient (ke) was linearly correlated with Reynolds' number Re (R(2)>0.9), and this relationship was verified by comparing the simulated potassium concentration and cumulative mass with observed data, respectively. The best performance with the bias error analysis (Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NS), relative error (RE) and the coefficient of determination (R(2))) showed that the predicted data by the proposed model was in good agreement with the measured data. Thus the model can be used to guide soil-water and fertilization management to minimize nutrient runoff from cropland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Using machine learning for real-time estimates of snow water equivalent in the watersheds of Afghanistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bair, Edward H.; Abreu Calfa, Andre; Rittger, Karl; Dozier, Jeff

    2018-05-01

    In the mountains, snowmelt often provides most of the runoff. Operational estimates use imagery from optical and passive microwave sensors, but each has its limitations. An accurate approach, which we validate in Afghanistan and the Sierra Nevada USA, reconstructs spatially distributed snow water equivalent (SWE) by calculating snowmelt backward from a remotely sensed date of disappearance. However, reconstructed SWE estimates are available only retrospectively; they do not provide a forecast. To estimate SWE throughout the snowmelt season, we consider physiographic and remotely sensed information as predictors and reconstructed SWE as the target. The period of analysis matches the AMSR-E radiometer's lifetime from 2003 to 2011, for the months of April through June. The spatial resolution of the predictions is 3.125 km, to match the resolution of a microwave brightness temperature product. Two machine learning techniques - bagged regression trees and feed-forward neural networks - produced similar mean results, with 0-14 % bias and 46-48 mm RMSE on average. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies averaged 0.68 for all years. Daily SWE climatology and fractional snow-covered area are the most important predictors. We conclude that these methods can accurately estimate SWE during the snow season in remote mountains, and thereby provide an independent estimate to forecast runoff and validate other methods to assess the snow resource.

  12. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

  13. Predicting Hydrologic Function With Aquatic Gene Fragments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Good, S. P.; URycki, D. R.; Crump, B. C.

    2018-03-01

    Recent advances in microbiology techniques, such as genetic sequencing, allow for rapid and cost-effective collection of large quantities of genetic information carried within water samples. Here we posit that the unique composition of aquatic DNA material within a water sample contains relevant information about hydrologic function at multiple temporal scales. In this study, machine learning was used to develop discharge prediction models trained on the relative abundance of bacterial taxa classified into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) based on 16S rRNA gene sequences from six large arctic rivers. We term this approach "genohydrology," and show that OTU relative abundances can be used to predict river discharge at monthly and longer timescales. Based on a single DNA sample from each river, the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for predicted mean monthly discharge values throughout the year was 0.84, while the NSE for predicted discharge values across different return intervals was 0.67. These are considerable improvements over predictions based only on the area-scaled mean specific discharge of five similar rivers, which had average NSE values of 0.64 and -0.32 for seasonal and recurrence interval discharge values, respectively. The genohydrology approach demonstrates that genetic diversity within the aquatic microbiome is a large and underutilized data resource with benefits for prediction of hydrologic function.

  14. Estimating groundwater levels using system identification models in Nzhelele and Luvuvhu areas, Limpopo Province, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makungo, Rachel; Odiyo, John O.

    2017-08-01

    This study was focused on testing the ability of a coupled linear and non-linear system identification model in estimating groundwater levels. System identification provides an alternative approach for estimating groundwater levels in areas that lack data required by physically-based models. It also overcomes the limitations of physically-based models due to approximations, assumptions and simplifications. Daily groundwater levels for 4 boreholes, rainfall and evaporation data covering the period 2005-2014 were used in the study. Seventy and thirty percent of the data were used to calibrate and validate the model, respectively. Correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), percent bias (PBIAS), Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and graphical fits were used to evaluate the model performance. Values for R, R2, RMSE, PBIAS and NSE ranged from 0.8 to 0.99, 0.63 to 0.99, 0.01-2.06 m, -7.18 to 1.16 and 0.68 to 0.99, respectively. Comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater levels for calibration and validation runs showed close agreements. The model performance mostly varied from satisfactory, good, very good and excellent. Thus, the model is able to estimate groundwater levels. The calibrated models can reasonably capture description between input and output variables and can, thus be used to estimate long term groundwater levels.

  15. Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Kling, Harald; Yilmaz, Koray K.; Martinez-Baquero, Guillermo F.

    2009-01-01

    The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

  16. Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

    2018-03-01

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

  17. Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Analysis for Visual MODFLOW based Groundwater Flow Model in a Small River Basin, Eastern India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jena, S.

    2015-12-01

    The overexploitation of groundwater resulted in abandoning many shallow tube wells in the river Basin in Eastern India. For the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-scale modelling of groundwater flow is essential for the efficient planning and management of the water resources. The main intent of this study is to develope a 3-D groundwater flow model of the study basin using the Visual MODFLOW package and successfully calibrate and validate it using 17 years of observed data. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to quantify the susceptibility of aquifer system to the river bank seepage, recharge from rainfall and agriculture practices, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, and specific yield. To quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were implemented. Results from the two techniques were compared and the advantages and disadvantages were analysed. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were adopted as two criteria during calibration and validation of the developed model. NSE and R2 values of groundwater flow model for calibration and validation periods were in acceptable range. Also, the MCMC technique was able to provide more reasonable results than SUFI-2. The calibrated and validated model will be useful to identify the aquifer properties, analyse the groundwater flow dynamics and the change in groundwater levels in future forecasts.

  18. Cement kiln dust (CKD)-filter sand permeable reactive barrier for the removal of Cu(II) and Zn(II) from simulated acidic groundwater.

    PubMed

    Sulaymon, Abbas H; Faisal, Ayad A H; Khaliefa, Qusey M

    2015-10-30

    The hydraulic conductivity and breakthrough curves of copper and zinc contaminants were measured in a set of continuous column experiments for 99 days using cement kiln dust (CKD)-filter sand as the permeable reactive barrier. The results of these experiments proved that the weight ratios of the cement kiln dust-filter sand (10:90 and 20:80) are adequate in preventing the loss of reactivity and hydraulic conductivity and, in turn, avoiding reduction in the groundwater flow. These results reveal a decrease in the hydraulic conductivity, which can be attributed to an accumulation of most of the quantity of the contaminant masses in the first sections of the column bed. Breakthrough curves for the description of the temporal contaminant transport within the barrier were found to be more representative by the Belter-Cussler-Hu and Yan models based on the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The longevity of the barrier was simulated for the field scale, based on the laboratory column tests and the values verified that cement kiln dust can be effectively used in the future, as the reactive material in permeable reactive barrier technology. These results signify that the longevity of the barrier is directly proportional to its thickness and inversely to the percentage of the CKD used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. LIS-HYMAP coupled Hydrological Modeling in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, H. C.; Getirana, A.; Policelli, F. S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity and resources in Africa have been exacerbated by periodic droughts and floods. However, few studies show the quantitative analysis of water balance or basin-scale hydrological modeling in Northeast Africa. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) is implemented to simulate land surface processes in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa. In this context, the Noah land surface model (LSM) and the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HYMAP) are used to reproduce the water budget and surface water (rivers and floodplains) dynamics in that region. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) meteorological dataset is used to force the system . Due to the unavailability of recent ground-based observations, satellite data are considered to evaluate first model outputs. Water levels at 10 Envisat virtual stations and water discharges at a gauging station are used to provide model performance coefficients (e.g. Nash-Sutcliffe, delay index, relative error). We also compare the spatial and temporal variations of flooded areas from the model with the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF)'s MEaSUREs Wetland data. Finally, we estimate surface water storage variations using a hypsographic curve approach with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topographic data and evaluate the model-derived water storage changes in both river and floodplain. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using LIS-HYMAP coupled modeling to support seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes.

  20. The Continuous Monitoring of Flash Flood Velocity Field based on an Automated LSPIV System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, W.; Ran, Q.; Liao, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Large-scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) is a non-intrusive tool for flow velocity field measurement and has more advantages against traditional techniques, with its applications on river, lake and ocean, especially under extreme conditions. An automated LSPIV system is presented in this study, which can be easily set up and executed for continuous monitoring of flash flood. The experiment site is Longchi village, Sichuan Province, where 8.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in 2008 and debris flow happens every year since then. The interest of area is about 30m*40m of the channel which has been heavily destroyed by debris flow. Series of videos obtained during the flood season indicates that flood outbreaks after rainstorm just for several hours. Measurement is complete without being influenced by this extreme weather condition and results are more reliable and accurate due to high soil concentration. Compared with direct measurement by impellor flow meter, we validated that LSPIV works well at mountain stream, with index of 6.7% (Average Relative Error) and 95% (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient). On Jun 26, the maximum flood surface velocity reached 4.26 m/s, and the discharge based on velocity-area method was also decided. Overall, this system is safe, non-contact and can be adjusted according to our requirement flexibly. We can get valuable data of flood which is scarce before, which will make a great contribution to the analysis of flood and debris flow mechanism.

  1. Changes in the flood frequency in the Mahanadi basin under observed and projected future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modi, P. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Mahanadi river basin is vulnerable to multiple types of extreme events due to its topography and river networks. These extreme events are not efficiently captured by the current LSMs partly due to lack of spatial hydrological data and uncertainty in the models. This study compares and evaluates the hydrologic simulations of the recently developed community Noah model with multi-parameterization options which is an upgradation of baseline Noah LSM. The model is calibrated and validated for the Mahanadi river basin and is driven by major atmospheric forcing from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP designed for hydrological modeling) precipitation datasets along with some additional forcing derived from the VIC model at 0.25-degree spatial resolution. The Noah-MP LSM is calibrated using observed daily streamflow data from 1978-1989 (India-WRIS) at the gauge stations with least human interventions with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency higher than 0.60. Noah MP was calibrated using different schemes for runoff with variation in all parameters sensitive to surface and sub-surface runoff. Streamflow routing was performed using a stand-alone model (VIC model) to route daily model runoff at required gauge station. Surface runoff is mainly affected by the uncertainties in major atmospheric forcing and highly sensitive parameters pertaining to soil properties. Noah MP is validated using observed streamflow from 1975-2010 which indicates the consistency of streamflow with the historical observations (NSE>0.65) thus indicating an increase in probability of future flood events.

  2. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  3. Prediction of dissolved oxygen concentration in hypoxic river systems using support vector machine: a case study of Wen-Rui Tang River, China.

    PubMed

    Ji, Xiaoliang; Shang, Xu; Dahlgren, Randy A; Zhang, Minghua

    2017-07-01

    Accurate quantification of dissolved oxygen (DO) is critically important for managing water resources and controlling pollution. Artificial intelligence (AI) models have been successfully applied for modeling DO content in aquatic ecosystems with limited data. However, the efficacy of these AI models in predicting DO levels in the hypoxic river systems having multiple pollution sources and complicated pollutants behaviors is unclear. Given this dilemma, we developed a promising AI model, known as support vector machine (SVM), to predict the DO concentration in a hypoxic river in southeastern China. Four different calibration models, specifically, multiple linear regression, back propagation neural network, general regression neural network, and SVM, were established, and their prediction accuracy was systemically investigated and compared. A total of 11 hydro-chemical variables were used as model inputs. These variables were measured bimonthly at eight sampling sites along the rural-suburban-urban portion of Wen-Rui Tang River from 2004 to 2008. The performances of the established models were assessed through the mean square error (MSE), determination coefficient (R 2 ), and Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) model efficiency. The results indicated that the SVM model was superior to other models in predicting DO concentration in Wen-Rui Tang River. For SVM, the MSE, R 2 , and NS values for the testing subset were 0.9416 mg/L, 0.8646, and 0.8763, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that ammonium-nitrogen was the most significant input variable of the proposal SVM model. Overall, these results demonstrated that the proposed SVM model can efficiently predict water quality, especially for highly impaired and hypoxic river systems.

  4. Hydrologic modeling of Guinale River Basin using HEC-HMS and synthetic aperture radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bien, Ferdinand E.; Plopenio, Joanaviva C.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents the methods and results of hydrologic modeling of Guinale river basin through the use of HEC-HMS software and Synthetic Aperture Radar Digital Elevation Model (SAR DEM). Guinale River Basin is located in the province of Albay, Philippines which is one of the river basins covered by the Ateneo de Naga University (ADNU) Phil-LiDAR 1. This research project was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) through the Philippine Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and Development (PCIEERD). Its objectives are to simulate the hydrologic model of Guinale River basin using HEC-HMS software and SAR DEM. Its basin covers an area of 165.395 sq.km. and the hydrologic model was calibrated using the storm event typhoon Nona (international name Melor). Its parameter had undergone a series of optimization processes of HEC-HMS software in order to produce an acceptable level of model efficiency. The Nash-Sutcliffe (E), Percent Bias and Standard Deviation Ratio were used to measure the model efficiency, giving values of 0.880, 0.260 and 0.346 respectively which resulted to a "very good" performance rating of the model. The flood inundation model was simulated using Legazpi Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves (RIDF) and HEC-RAS software developed by the US Army corps of Engineers (USACE). This hydrologic model will provide the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (MDRRMO), Local Government units (LGUs) and the community a tool for the prediction of runoff in the area.

  5. Research on the response of the water sources to the climatic change in Shiyang River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Y. Z.; Zeng, J. J.; Hu, X. Q.; Sun, D. Y.; Song, Z. F.; Zhang, Y. L.; Lu, S. C.; Cui, Y. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of the future climate change to the water resource will directly pose some impact on the watershed management planning and administrative strategies of Shiyang River Basin. With the purpose of exploring the influence of climate change to the runoff, this paper set Shiyang River as the study area and then established a SWAT basin hydrological model based on the data such as DEM, land use, soil, climate hydrology and so on. Besides, algorithm of SUFI2 embedded in SWAT-CUP software is adopted. The conclusion shows that SWAT Model can simulate the runoff process of Nanying River well. During the period of model verification and simulation, the runoff Nash-Sutcliffe efficient coefficient of the verification and simulation is 0.76 and 0.72 separately. The relative error between the simulation and actual measurement and the model efficient coefficient are both within the scope of acceptance, which means that the SWAT hydrological model can be properly applied into the runoff simulation of Shiyang River Basin. Meantime, analysis on the response of the water resources to the climate change in Shiyang River Basin indicates that the impact of climate change on runoff is remarkable under different climate change situations and the annual runoff will be greatly decreased as the precipitation falls and the temperature rises. Influence of precipitation to annual runoff is greater than that of temperature. Annual runoff differs obviously under different climate change situations. All in all, this paper tries to provide some technical assistance for the water sources development and utilization assessment and optimal configuration.

  6. Reflective random indexing for semi-automatic indexing of the biomedical literature.

    PubMed

    Vasuki, Vidya; Cohen, Trevor

    2010-10-01

    The rapid growth of biomedical literature is evident in the increasing size of the MEDLINE research database. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), a controlled set of keywords, are used to index all the citations contained in the database to facilitate search and retrieval. This volume of citations calls for efficient tools to assist indexers at the US National Library of Medicine (NLM). Currently, the Medical Text Indexer (MTI) system provides assistance by recommending MeSH terms based on the title and abstract of an article using a combination of distributional and vocabulary-based methods. In this paper, we evaluate a novel approach toward indexer assistance by using nearest neighbor classification in combination with Reflective Random Indexing (RRI), a scalable alternative to the established methods of distributional semantics. On a test set provided by the NLM, our approach significantly outperforms the MTI system, suggesting that the RRI approach would make a useful addition to the current methodologies.

  7. From rationality to cooperativeness: The totally mixed Nash equilibrium in Markov strategies in the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma.

    PubMed

    Menshikov, Ivan S; Shklover, Alexsandr V; Babkina, Tatiana S; Myagkov, Mikhail G

    2017-01-01

    In this research, the social behavior of the participants in a Prisoner's Dilemma laboratory game is explained on the basis of the quantal response equilibrium concept and the representation of the game in Markov strategies. In previous research, we demonstrated that social interaction during the experiment has a positive influence on cooperation, trust, and gratefulness. This research shows that the quantal response equilibrium concept agrees only with the results of experiments on cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma prior to social interaction. However, quantal response equilibrium does not explain of participants' behavior after social interaction. As an alternative theoretical approach, an examination was conducted of iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game in Markov strategies. We built a totally mixed Nash equilibrium in this game; the equilibrium agrees with the results of the experiments both before and after social interaction.

  8. A novel way to establish fertilization recommendations based on agronomic efficiency and a sustainable yield index for rice crops.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chuang; Liu, Yi; Li, Zhiguo; Zhang, Guoshi; Chen, Fang

    2017-04-24

    A simpler approach for establishing fertilizer recommendations for major crops is urgently required to improve the application efficiency of commercial fertilizers in China. To address this need, we developed a method based on field data drawn from the China Program of the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) rice experiments and investigations carried out in southeastern China during 2001 to 2012. Our results show that, using agronomic efficiencies and a sustainable yield index (SYI), this new method for establishing fertilizer recommendations robustly estimated the mean rice yield (7.6 t/ha) and mean nutrient supply capacities (186, 60, and 96 kg/ha of N, P 2 O 5 , and K 2 O, respectively) of fertilizers in the study region. In addition, there were significant differences in rice yield response, economic cost/benefit ratio, and nutrient-use efficiencies associated with agronomic efficiencies ranked as high, medium and low. Thus, ranking agronomic efficiency could strengthen linear models relating rice yields and SYI. Our results also indicate that the new method provides better recommendations in terms of rice yield, SYI, and profitability than previous methods. Hence, we believe it is an effective approach for improving recommended applications of commercial fertilizers to rice (and potentially other crops).

  9. Environmental Quality Index webinar

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Environmental Quality index, data reduction approaches to help improve statistical efficiency, summarizing information on the wider environment humans are exposed to. air, water, land, built, socio-demographic, human and environmental health

  10. Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

    2017-12-01

    Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.

  11. Index Compression and Efficient Query Processing in Large Web Search Engines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ding, Shuai

    2013-01-01

    The inverted index is the main data structure used by all the major search engines. Search engines build an inverted index on their collection to speed up query processing. As the size of the web grows, the length of the inverted list structures, which can easily grow to hundreds of MBs or even GBs for common terms (roughly linear in the size of…

  12. Estimation of water table level and nitrate pollution based on geostatistical and multiple mass transport models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiatos, Ioannis; Varouhakis, Emmanouil A.; Papadopoulou, Maria P.

    2015-04-01

    As the sustainable use of groundwater resources is a great challenge for many countries in the world, groundwater modeling has become a very useful and well established tool for studying groundwater management problems. Based on various methods used to numerically solve algebraic equations representing groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport, numerical models are mainly divided into Finite Difference-based and Finite Element-based models. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of a finite difference-based (MODFLOW-MT3DMS), a finite element-based (FEFLOW) and a hybrid finite element and finite difference (Princeton Transport Code-PTC) groundwater numerical models simulating groundwater flow and nitrate mass transport in the alluvial aquifer of Trizina region in NE Peloponnese, Greece. The calibration of groundwater flow in all models was performed using groundwater hydraulic head data from seven stress periods and the validation was based on a series of hydraulic head data for two stress periods in sufficient numbers of observation locations. The same periods were used for the calibration of nitrate mass transport. The calibration and validation of the three models revealed that the simulated values of hydraulic heads and nitrate mass concentrations coincide well with the observed ones. The models' performance was assessed by performing a statistical analysis of these different types of numerical algorithms. A number of metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) and Reliability Index (RI) were used allowing the direct comparison of models' performance. Spatiotemporal Kriging (STRK) was also applied using separable and non-separable spatiotemporal variograms to predict water table level and nitrate concentration at each sampling station for two selected hydrological stress periods. The predictions were validated using the respective measured values. Maps of water table

  13. Effect of formal and informal likelihood functions on uncertainty assessment in a single event rainfall-runoff model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nourali, Mahrouz; Ghahraman, Bijan; Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen; Davary, Kamran

    2016-09-01

    In the present study, DREAM(ZS), Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis combined with both formal and informal likelihood functions, is used to investigate uncertainty of parameters of the HEC-HMS model in Tamar watershed, Golestan province, Iran. In order to assess the uncertainty of 24 parameters used in HMS, three flood events were used to calibrate and one flood event was used to validate the posterior distributions. Moreover, performance of seven different likelihood functions (L1-L7) was assessed by means of DREAM(ZS)approach. Four likelihood functions, L1-L4, Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency, Normalized absolute error (NAE), Index of agreement (IOA), and Chiew-McMahon efficiency (CM), is considered as informal, whereas remaining (L5-L7) is represented in formal category. L5 focuses on the relationship between the traditional least squares fitting and the Bayesian inference, and L6, is a hetereoscedastic maximum likelihood error (HMLE) estimator. Finally, in likelihood function L7, serial dependence of residual errors is accounted using a first-order autoregressive (AR) model of the residuals. According to the results, sensitivities of the parameters strongly depend on the likelihood function, and vary for different likelihood functions. Most of the parameters were better defined by formal likelihood functions L5 and L7 and showed a high sensitivity to model performance. Posterior cumulative distributions corresponding to the informal likelihood functions L1, L2, L3, L4 and the formal likelihood function L6 are approximately the same for most of the sub-basins, and these likelihood functions depict almost a similar effect on sensitivity of parameters. 95% total prediction uncertainty bounds bracketed most of the observed data. Considering all the statistical indicators and criteria of uncertainty assessment, including RMSE, KGE, NS, P-factor and R-factor, results showed that DREAM(ZS) algorithm performed better under formal likelihood functions L5 and L7

  14. Water temperature of streams in the Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, and implications of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kyle, Rebecca E.; Brabets, Timothy P.

    2001-10-02

    Water-temperature data from 32 sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, south-central Alaska, indicate various trends that depend on watershed characteristics. Basins with 25 percent or more of their area consisting of glaciers have the coldest water temperatures during the open-water season, mid-May to mid-October. Streams and rivers that drain lowlands have the warmest water temperatures. A model that uses air temperature as input to predict water temperature as output was utilized to simulate future trends in water temperature based on increased air temperatures due to climate warming. Based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, the model produced acceptable results for 27 sites. For basins with more than 25 percent glacial coverage, the model was not as accurate. Results indicate that 15 sites had a predicted water-temperature change of 3 degrees Celsius or more, a magnitude of change that is considered significant for the incidence of disease in fish populations.

  15. Hydrologic Evaluation of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrivals for GPM over Nanliu River Basin in Southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhenqing, L.; Sheng, C.; Chaoying, H.

    2017-12-01

    The core satellite of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched on 27 February2014 with two core sensors dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and microwave imager (GMI). The algorithm of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) blends the advantages of currently most popular satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) algorithms, i.e. TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) ADDIN EN.CITE ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA , Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS).Therefore, IMERG is deemed to be the state-of-art precipitation product with high spatio-temporal resolution of 0.1°/30min. The real-time and post real-time IMERG products are now available online at https://stormpps.gsfc.nasa.gov/storm. Early studies about assessment of IMERG with gauge observations or analysis products show that the current version GPM Day-1 product IMERG demonstrates promising performance over China [1], Europe [2], and United States [3]. However, few studies are found to study the IMERG' potentials of hydrologic utility.In this study, the real-time and final run post real-time IMERG products are hydrologically evaluated with gauge analysis product as reference over Nanliu River basin (Fig.1) in Southern China since March 2014 to February 2017 with Xinanjiang model. Statistics metrics Relative Bias (RB), Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSCE) index will be used to compare the stream flow simulated with IMERG to the observed stream flow. This timely hydrologic evaluation is expected to offer insights into IMERG' potentials in hydrologic utility and thus provide useful feedback to the IMERG algorithm developers and

  16. Multi-Level Bitmap Indexes for Flash Memory Storage

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wu, Kesheng; Madduri, Kamesh; Canon, Shane

    2010-07-23

    Due to their low access latency, high read speed, and power-efficient operation, flash memory storage devices are rapidly emerging as an attractive alternative to traditional magnetic storage devices. However, tests show that the most efficient indexing methods are not able to take advantage of the flash memory storage devices. In this paper, we present a set of multi-level bitmap indexes that can effectively take advantage of flash storage devices. These indexing methods use coarsely binned indexes to answer queries approximately, and then use finely binned indexes to refine the answers. Our new methods read significantly lower volumes of data atmore » the expense of an increased disk access count, thus taking full advantage of the improved read speed and low access latency of flash devices. To demonstrate the advantage of these new indexes, we measure their performance on a number of storage systems using a standard data warehousing benchmark called the Set Query Benchmark. We observe that multi-level strategies on flash drives are up to 3 times faster than traditional indexing strategies on magnetic disk drives.« less

  17. Breaking the Curse of Cardinality on Bitmap Indexes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wu, Kesheng; Wu, Kesheng; Stockinger, Kurt

    2008-04-04

    Bitmap indexes are known to be efficient for ad-hoc range queries that are common in data warehousing and scientific applications. However, they suffer from the curse of cardinality, that is, their efficiency deteriorates as attribute cardinalities increase. A number of strategies have been proposed, but none of them addresses the problem adequately. In this paper, we propose a novel binned bitmap index that greatly reduces the cost to answer queries, and therefore breaks the curse of cardinality. The key idea is to augment the binned index with an Order-preserving Bin-based Clustering (OrBiC) structure. This data structure significantly reduces the I/Omore » operations needed to resolve records that cannot be resolved with the bitmaps. To further improve the proposed index structure, we also present a strategy to create single-valued bins for frequent values. This strategy reduces index sizes and improves query processing speed. Overall, the binned indexes with OrBiC great improves the query processing speed, and are 3 - 25 times faster than the best available indexes for high-cardinality data.« less

  18. The heat rate index indicator

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lasasso, M.; Runyan, B.; Napoli, J.

    1995-06-01

    This paper describes a method of tracking unit performance through the use of a reference number called the Heat Rate Index Indicator. The ABB Power Plant Controls OTIS performance monitor is used to determine when steady load conditions exist and then to collect controllable and equipment loss data which significantly impact thermal efficiency. By comparing these loss parameters to those found during the previous heat balance, it is possible to develop a new adjusted heat rate curve. These impacts on heat rate are used to changes the shape of the tested heat rate curve by the appropriate percentages over amore » specified load range. Mathcad is used to determine the Heat Rate Index by integrating for the areas beneath the adjusted heat rate curve and a heat rate curve that represents the unit`s ideal heat rate curve is the Heat Rate Index. An index of 1.0 indicates that the unit is operating at an ideal efficiency, while an index of less than 1.0 indicates that the unit is operating at less than ideal conditions. A one per cent change in the Heat Rate Index is equivalent to a one percent change in heat rate. The new shape of the adjusted heat rate curve and the individual curves generated from the controllable and equipment loss parameters are useful for determining performance problems in specific load ranges.« less

  19. Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the

  20. Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

    2015-01-01

    Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of

  1. Stream-flow forecasting using extreme learning machines: A case study in a semi-arid region in Iraq

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; Jaafar, Othman; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Kisi, Ozgur; Adamowski, Jan; Quilty, John; El-Shafie, Ahmed

    2016-11-01

    Monthly stream-flow forecasting can yield important information for hydrological applications including sustainable design of rural and urban water management systems, optimization of water resource allocations, water use, pricing and water quality assessment, and agriculture and irrigation operations. The motivation for exploring and developing expert predictive models is an ongoing endeavor for hydrological applications. In this study, the potential of a relatively new data-driven method, namely the extreme learning machine (ELM) method, was explored for forecasting monthly stream-flow discharge rates in the Tigris River, Iraq. The ELM algorithm is a single-layer feedforward neural network (SLFNs) which randomly selects the input weights, hidden layer biases and analytically determines the output weights of the SLFNs. Based on the partial autocorrelation functions of historical stream-flow data, a set of five input combinations with lagged stream-flow values are employed to establish the best forecasting model. A comparative investigation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the ELM compared to other data-driven models: support vector regression (SVR) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN). The forecasting metrics defined as the correlation coefficient (r), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS), Willmott's Index (WI), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) computed between the observed and forecasted stream-flow data are employed to assess the ELM model's effectiveness. The results revealed that the ELM model outperformed the SVR and the GRNN models across a number of statistical measures. In quantitative terms, superiority of ELM over SVR and GRNN models was exhibited by ENS = 0.578, 0.378 and 0.144, r = 0.799, 0.761 and 0.468 and WI = 0.853, 0.802 and 0.689, respectively and the ELM model attained lower RMSE value by approximately 21.3% (relative to SVR) and by approximately 44.7% (relative to GRNN). Based on the findings of this

  2. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  3. Pan evaporation prediction using a hybrid multilayer perceptron-firefly algorithm (MLP-FFA) model: case study in North Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; H. Kashani, Mahsa; Mohammadi, Babak

    2017-08-01

    An accurate computational approach for the prediction of pan evaporation over daily time horizons is a useful decisive tool in sustainable agriculture and hydrological applications, particularly in designing the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this study, a hybrid predictive model (Multilayer Perceptron-Firefly Algorithm (MLP-FFA)) based on the FFA optimizer that is embedded within the MLP technique is developed and evaluated for its suitability for the prediction of daily pan evaporation. To develop the hybrid MLP-FFA model, the pan evaporation data measured between 2012 and 2014 for two major meteorological stations (Talesh and Manjil) located at Northern Iran are employed to train and test the predictive model. The ability of the hybrid MLP-FFA model is compared with the traditional MLP and support vector machine (SVM) models. The results are evaluated using five performance criteria metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and the Willmott's Index (WI). Taylor diagrams are also used to examine the similarity between the observed and predicted pan evaporation data in the test period. Results show that an optimal MLP-FFA model outperforms the MLP and SVM model for both tested stations. For Talesh, a value of WI = 0.926, NS = 0.791, and RMSE = 1.007 mm day-1 is obtained using MLP-FFA model, compared with 0.912, 0.713, and 1.181 mm day-1 (MLP) and 0.916, 0.726, and 1.153 mm day-1 (SVM), whereas for Manjil, a value of WI = 0.976, NS = 0.922, and 1.406 mm day-1 is attained that contrasts 0.972, 0.901, and 1.583 mm day-1 (MLP) and 0.971, 0.893, and 1.646 mm day-1 (SVM). The results demonstrate the importance of the Firefly Algorithm applied to improve the performance of the MLP-FFA model, as verified through its better predictive performance compared to the MLP and SVM model.

  4. Identification of high-efficiency 3'GG gRNA motifs in indexed FASTA files with ngg2.

    PubMed

    Roberson, Elisha D O

    CRISPR/Cas9 is emerging as one of the most-used methods of genome modification in organisms ranging from bacteria to human cells. However, the efficiency of editing varies tremendously site-to-site. A recent report identified a novel motif, called the 3'GG motif, which substantially increases the efficiency of editing at all sites tested in C. elegans . Furthermore, they highlighted that previously published gRNAs with high editing efficiency also had this motif. I designed a python command-line tool, ngg2, to identify 3'GG gRNA sites from indexed FASTA files. As a proof-of-concept, I screened for these motifs in six model genomes: Saccharomyces cerevisiae , Caenorhabditis elegans , Drosophila melanogaster , Danio rerio , Mus musculus , and Homo sapiens. I also scanned the genomes of pig ( Sus scrofa ) and African elephant ( Loxodonta africana ) to demonstrate the utility in non-model organisms. I identified more than 60 million single match 3'GG motifs in these genomes. Greater than 61% of all protein coding genes in the reference genomes had at least one unique 3'GG gRNA site overlapping an exon. In particular, more than 96% of mouse and 93% of human protein coding genes have at least one unique, overlapping 3'GG gRNA. These identified sites can be used as a starting point in gRNA selection, and the ngg2 tool provides an important ability to identify 3'GG editing sites in any species with an available genome sequence.

  5. MRI and MRE for non-invasive quantitative assessment of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in NAFLD and NASH: Clinical trials to clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    Dulai, Parambir S.; Sirlin, Claude B.; Loomba, Rohit

    2016-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents one of the most common causes of chronic liver disease, and its prevalence is rising worldwide. The occurrence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with a substantial increase in disease related morbidity and mortality. Accordingly, there has been a surge of innovation surrounding drug development in an effort to off-set the natural progression and long-term risks of this disease. Disease assessment within clinical trials and clinical practice for NAFLD is currently done with liver biopsies. Liver biopsy-based assessments, however, remain imprecise and are not without cost or risk. This carries significant implications for the feasibility and costs of bringing therapeutic interventions to market. A need therefore arises for reliable and highly accurate surrogate end-points that can be used in phase 2 and 3 clinical trials to reduce trial size requirements and costs, while improving feasibility and ease of implementation in clinical practice. Significant advances have now been made in magnetic resonance technology, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and elastrography (MRE) have been demonstrated to be highly accurate diagnostic tools for the detection of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis. In this review article, we will summarize the currently available evidence regarding the use of MRI and MRE among NAFLD patients, and the evolving role these surrogate biomarkers will play in the rapidly advancing arena of clinical trials in NASH and hepatic fibrosis. Furthermore, we will highlight how these tools can be readily applied to routine clinical practice, where the growing burden of NAFLD will need to be met with enhanced monitoring algorithms. PMID:27312947

  6. On the Fair Division of Multiple Stochastic Pies to Multiple Agents within the Nash Bargaining Solution

    PubMed Central

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

    2012-01-01

    The fair division of a surplus is one of the most widely examined problems. This paper focuses on bargaining problems with fixed disagreement payoffs where risk-neutral agents have reached an agreement that is the Nash-bargaining solution (NBS). We consider a stochastic environment, in which the overall return consists of multiple pies with uncertain sizes and we examine how these pies can be allocated with fairness among agents. Specifically, fairness is based on the Aristotle’s maxim: “equals should be treated equally and unequals unequally, in proportion to the relevant inequality”. In this context, fairness is achieved when all the individual stochastic surplus shares which are allocated to agents are distributed in proportion to the NBS. We introduce a novel algorithm, which can be used to compute the ratio of each pie that should be allocated to each agent, in order to ensure fairness within a symmetric or asymmetric NBS. PMID:23024752

  7. A Study of the Efficiency of Spatial Indexing Methods Applied to Large Astronomical Databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donaldson, Tom; Berriman, G. Bruce; Good, John; Shiao, Bernie

    2018-01-01

    Spatial indexing of astronomical databases generally uses quadrature methods, which partition the sky into cells used to create an index (usually a B-tree) written as database column. We report the results of a study to compare the performance of two common indexing methods, HTM and HEALPix, on Solaris and Windows database servers installed with a PostgreSQL database, and a Windows Server installed with MS SQL Server. The indexing was applied to the 2MASS All-Sky Catalog and to the Hubble Source catalog. On each server, the study compared indexing performance by submitting 1 million queries at each index level with random sky positions and random cone search radius, which was computed on a logarithmic scale between 1 arcsec and 1 degree, and measuring the time to complete the query and write the output. These simulated queries, intended to model realistic use patterns, were run in a uniform way on many combinations of indexing method and indexing level. The query times in all simulations are strongly I/O-bound and are linear with number of records returned for large numbers of sources. There are, however, considerable differences between simulations, which reveal that hardware I/O throughput is a more important factor in managing the performance of a DBMS than the choice of indexing scheme. The choice of index itself is relatively unimportant: for comparable index levels, the performance is consistent within the scatter of the timings. At small index levels (large cells; e.g. level 4; cell size 3.7 deg), there is large scatter in the timings because of wide variations in the number of sources found in the cells. At larger index levels, performance improves and scatter decreases, but the improvement at level 8 (14 min) and higher is masked to some extent in the timing scatter caused by the range of query sizes. At very high levels (20; 0.0004 arsec), the granularity of the cells becomes so high that a large number of extraneous empty cells begin to degrade

  8. Liver fibrosis markers of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Enomoto, Hirayuki; Bando, Yukihiro; Nakamura, Hideji; Nishiguchi, Shuhei; Koga, Masafumi

    2015-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the major causes of chronic liver injury. NAFLD includes a wide range of clinical conditions from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), advanced fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis. The histological findings of NASH indicate hepatic steatosis and inflammation with characteristic hepatocyte injury (e.g., ballooning degeneration), as is observed in the patients with alcoholic liver disease. NASH is considered to be a potentially health-threatening disease that can progress to cirrhosis. A liver biopsy remains the most reliable diagnostic method to appropriately diagnose NASH, evaluate the severity of liver fibrosis, and determine the prognosis and optimal treatment. However, this invasive technique is associated with several limitations in routine use, and a number of biomarkers have been developed in order to predict the degree of liver fibrosis. In the present article, we review the current status of noninvasive biomarkers available to estimate liver fibrosis in the patients with NASH. We also discuss our recent findings on the use of the glycated albumin-to-glycated hemoglobin ratio, which is a new index that correlates to various chronic liver diseases, including NASH. PMID:26139988

  9. Liver fibrosis markers of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

    PubMed

    Enomoto, Hirayuki; Bando, Yukihiro; Nakamura, Hideji; Nishiguchi, Shuhei; Koga, Masafumi

    2015-06-28

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the major causes of chronic liver injury. NAFLD includes a wide range of clinical conditions from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), advanced fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis. The histological findings of NASH indicate hepatic steatosis and inflammation with characteristic hepatocyte injury (e.g., ballooning degeneration), as is observed in the patients with alcoholic liver disease. NASH is considered to be a potentially health-threatening disease that can progress to cirrhosis. A liver biopsy remains the most reliable diagnostic method to appropriately diagnose NASH, evaluate the severity of liver fibrosis, and determine the prognosis and optimal treatment. However, this invasive technique is associated with several limitations in routine use, and a number of biomarkers have been developed in order to predict the degree of liver fibrosis. In the present article, we review the current status of noninvasive biomarkers available to estimate liver fibrosis in the patients with NASH. We also discuss our recent findings on the use of the glycated albumin-to-glycated hemoglobin ratio, which is a new index that correlates to various chronic liver diseases, including NASH.

  10. Coupling HYDRUS-1D Code with PA-DDS Algorithms for Inverse Calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiang; Asadzadeh, Masoud; Holländer, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    Numerical modelling requires calibration to predict future stages. A standard method for calibration is inverse calibration where generally multi-objective optimization algorithms are used to find a solution, e.g. to find an optimal solution of the van Genuchten Mualem (VGM) parameters to predict water fluxes in the vadose zone. We coupled HYDRUS-1D with PA-DDS to add a new, robust function for inverse calibration to the model. The PA-DDS method is a recently developed multi-objective optimization algorithm, which combines Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) and Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy (PAES). The results were compared to a standard method (Marquardt-Levenberg method) implemented in HYDRUS-1D. Calibration performance is evaluated using observed and simulated soil moisture at two soil layers in the Southern Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada in the terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Results showed low RMSE values of 0.014 and 0.017 and strong NSE values of 0.961 and 0.939. Compared to the results by the Marquardt-Levenberg method, we received better calibration results for deeper located soil sensors. However, VGM parameters were similar comparing with previous studies. Both methods are equally computational efficient. We claim that a direct implementation of PA-DDS into HYDRUS-1D should reduce the computation effort further. This, the PA-DDS method is efficient for calibrating recharge for complex vadose zone modelling with multiple soil layer and can be a potential tool for calibration of heat and solute transport. Future work should focus on the effectiveness of PA-DDS for calibrating more complex versions of the model with complex vadose zone settings, with more soil layers, and against measured heat and solute transport. Keywords: Recharge, Calibration, HYDRUS-1D, Multi-objective Optimization

  11. A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

  12. Empirical Examination of Fundamental Indexation in the German Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mihm, Max; Locarek-Junge, Hermann

    Index Funds, Exchange Traded Funds and Derivatives give investors easy access to well diversified index portfolios. These index-based investment products exhibit low fees, which make them an attractive alternative to actively managed funds. Against this background, a new class of stock indices has been established based on the concept of “Fundamental Indexation”. The selection and weighting of index constituents is conducted by means of fundamental criteria like total assets, book value or number of employees. This paper examines the performance of fundamental indices in the German equity market. For this purpose, a backtest of five fundamental indices is conducted over the last 20 years. Furthermore the index returns are analysed under the assumption of an efficient as well as an inefficient market. Index returns in efficient markets are explained by applying the three factor model for stock returns of Fama and French (J Financ Econ 33(1):3-56, 1993). The results show that the outperformance of fundamental indices is partly due to a higher risk exposure, particularly to companies with a low price to book ratio. By relaxing the assumption of market efficiency, a return drag of capitalisation weighted indices can be deduced. Given a mean-reverting movement of prices, a direct connection between market capitalisation and index weighting leads to inferior returns.

  13. A Bidding Methodology by Nash Equilibrium for Finite Generators Participating in Imperfect Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satyaramesh, P. V.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an application of finite n-person non-cooperative game theory for analyzing bidding strategies of generators in a deregulated energy marketplace with Pool Bilateral contracts so as to maximize their net profits. A new methodology to build bidding methodology for generators participating in oligopoly electricity market has been proposed in this paper. It is assumed that each generator bids a supply function. This methodology finds out the coefficients in the supply function of generators in order to maximize benefits in an environment of competing rival bidders. A natural choice for developing strategies is Nash Equilibrium (NE) model incorporating mixed strategies, for solving the bidding problem of electrical market. Associated optimal profits are evaluated for a combination of set of pure strategies of bidding of generators, and payoff matrix has been constructed. The optimal payoff is calculated by using NE. An attempt has also been made to minimize the gap between the optimal payoff and the payoff obtained by a possible mixed strategies combination. The algorithm is coded in MATLAB. A numerical example is used to illustrate the essential features of the approach and the results are proved to be the optimal values.

  14. Acidophil Bodiesin Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Yeh, Matthew M.; Belt, Patricia; Brunt, Elizabeth M.; Kowdley, Kris V.; Wilson, Laura A.; Ferrell, Linda

    2016-01-01

    The significance of the quantity of acidophil bodies (AB)in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is not certain. We quantified AB in liver biopsies and examined the association with the diagnosis of NASH and other histologic features. We reviewed 157 liver biopsies from the NASH CRN Database collected in 2006. 127 biopsies were from adult patients. Diagnoses were 94 definite NASH, 40 borderline NASH, and 23 definitely not NASH. The total length and average width of the core biopsies were measured and the biopsy areas were calculated (mm2). Total AB were counted and mean AB count per mm2 was calculated (AB/mm2) to deriveacidophil body index (ABI). ABI was 0.04 (±0.08) in definite NASH and 0.02 (±0.05) in borderline/definitely not NASH groups combined (p=0.02) in all 157 biopsies; similar findings were present in the 127 adult only biopsies (0.04±0.05 and 0.02±0.05, respectively, p=0.05). In all 157 biopsies, increased ABI was associated with greater lobular inflammation (p=0.01) and many ballooned hepatocytes (p=0.048). There was a positive relationship between ABI and high nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity scores (NAS), but this association was not statistically significant. There was no association between ABI and steatosis or fibrosis stage in either the entire cohorts or in the subset of adult patients. In conclusion, the density of AB is associated with lobular inflammation, ballooned hepatocytes, and the diagnosis of NASH in adult and pediatric liver biopsies, suggesting the implication of the apoptotic pathway in NASH-associated liver cell injury. PMID:26980020

  15. Optimal Embedding for Shape Indexing in Medical Image Databases

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Xiaoning; Tagare, Hemant D.; Fulbright, Robert K.; Long, Rodney; Antani, Sameer

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of indexing shapes in medical image databases. Shapes of organs are often indicative of disease, making shape similarity queries important in medical image databases. Mathematically, shapes with landmarks belong to shape spaces which are curved manifolds with a well defined metric. The challenge in shape indexing is to index data in such curved spaces. One natural indexing scheme is to use metric trees, but metric trees are prone to inefficiency. This paper proposes a more efficient alternative. We show that it is possible to optimally embed finite sets of shapes in shape space into a Euclidean space. After embedding, classical coordinate-based trees can be used for efficient shape retrieval. The embedding proposed in the paper is optimal in the sense that it least distorts the partial Procrustes shape distance. The proposed indexing technique is used to retrieve images by vertebral shape from the NHANES II database of cervical and lumbar spine x-ray images maintained at the National Library of Medicine. Vertebral shape strongly correlates with the presence of osteophytes, and shape similarity retrieval is proposed as a tool for retrieval by osteophyte presence and severity. Experimental results included in the paper evaluate (1) the usefulness of shape-similarity as a proxy for osteophytes, (2) the computational and disk access efficiency of the new indexing scheme, (3) the relative performance of indexing with embedding to the performance of indexing without embedding, and (4) the computational cost of indexing using the proposed embedding versus the cost of an alternate embedding. The experimental results clearly show the relevance of shape indexing and the advantage of using the proposed embedding. PMID:20163981

  16. Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced-MR imaging in the inflammation stage of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in mice.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Tomomi; Obata, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Yuto; Rokugawa, Takemi; Matsushima, Shuuichi; Hamada, Tadateru; Watabe, Hiroshi; Abe, Kohji

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between the liver kinetics of gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA) and liver histopathology in a mouse model of NASH by using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI. Twenty male C57/BL6 mice aged 8weeks were fed a methionine-choline-deficient (MCD) diet for 2, 4 and 6weeks (MCD groups: MCD 2w, 4w, or 6w). Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MR imaging of the liver was performed at 2, 4 and 6weeks after the MCD feeding. The signal intensity of the liver was obtained from dynamic MR images and relative enhancement (RE), and the time to maximum RE (Tmax) and half-life of elimination RE (T1/2) were calculated. After MRI scan, histopathological scores of hepatic steatosis and inflammation and blood biochemistry data, such as aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, were obtained. Plasma AST and ALT levels were significantly increased in mice fed MCD. Histopathological scores indicated that steatohepatitis progressed with the MCD feeding period from 2 to 6weeks, but significant fibrosis was observed only in mice fed MCD for 6weeks. Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI showed that Tmax was significantly prolonged in the livers of the 6-week group compared to the control group (control, 4.0±0.7min; MCD 6w, 12.1±1.6min), although there was no alteration in the 2- and 4-week groups. T1/2 was significantly prolonged in mice fed MCD for 4 and 6weeks compared to the control group (control, 19.9±2.0min; MCD 4w, 46.7±8.7min; MCD 6w, 65.4±8.8min). The parameters of Gd-EOB-DTPA kinetics (Tmax and T1/2) in the liver were positively correlated with the liver histopathological score (steatosis vs Tmax, rho=0.69, P=0.0007; inflammation vs Tmax, rho=0.66, P=0.00155; steatosis vs T1/2, rho=0.77, P<0.0001; inflammation vs T1/2, rho=0.73, P=0.0003). The liver kinetics of Gd-EOB-DTPA correlated well with the inflammation score in the mouse model of NASH, suggesting the possibility of

  17. Advanced non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis: A high-risk population for pre-liver transplant portal vein thrombosis.

    PubMed

    Stine, Jonathan G; Argo, Curtis K; Pelletier, Shawn J; Maluf, Daniel G; Caldwell, Stephen H; Northup, Patrick G

    2017-01-28

    To examine if liver transplant recipients with high-risk non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are at increased risk for pre-transplant portal venous thrombosis. Data on all liver transplants in the United States from February 2002 through September 2014 were analyzed. Recipients were sorted into three distinct groups: High-risk (age > 60, body mass index > 30 kg/m 2 , hypertension and diabetes), low-risk and non-NASH cirrhosis. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed. Thirty-five thousand and seventy-two candidates underwent liver transplantation and of those organ recipients, 465 were transplanted for high-risk and 2775 for low-risk NASH. Two thousand six hundred and twenty-six (7.5%) recipients had pre-transplant portal vein thrombosis; 66 (14.2%) of the high-risk NASH group had portal vein thrombosis vs 328 (11.8%) of the low-risk NASH group. In general, all NASH recipients were less likely to be male or African American and more likely to be obese. In adjusted multivariable regression analyses, high-risk recipients had the greatest risk of pre-transplant portal vein thrombosis with OR = 2.11 (95%CI: 1.60-2.76, P < 0.001) when referenced to the non-NASH group. Liver transplant candidates with high-risk NASH are at the greatest risk for portal vein thrombosis development prior to transplantation. These candidates may benefit from interventions to decrease their likelihood of clot formation and resultant downstream hepatic decompensating events. Prospective study is needed.

  18. Indexes and efficiencies of N optimum dose reviewed as water- and Nitrogen- footprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellanos, Maria Teresa; Cartagena, Maria Carmen; Cabello, Maria Jesus; Rivas, Francisco; Tarquis, Ana Maria; Arce, Augusto

    2013-04-01

    In order to establish rational nitrogen (N) fertilization and reduce groundwater contamination, a clearer understanding of the N distribution through the growing season and its balance is crucial. In three successive years, a melon crop (Cucumis melo L. cv. Sancho) was grown under field conditions to determine the uptake of N fertilizer, applied by means of fertigation at different stages of plant growth. In addition, Strategies are being sought to increase water use in cropping systems and to reduce drainage. The estimation of N mineralized from soil organic matter is an essential tool to determine the amount necessary to optimize crop yield and minimize the environmental impact of excess N. In this study we propose a methodology that allows us to study fertigated management integrating several aspects: economic and environmental. Even the complexity of the system, we have reduced the number of indexes and efficiencies need to establish the framework of N management and its economical and environmental consequences. At the same time, we have translated all them into a water- and Nitrogen- footprint in each year. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been partially supported by INIA under Project INIA-RTA 2010-00110-C03-02

  19. From rationality to cooperativeness: The totally mixed Nash equilibrium in Markov strategies in the iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma

    PubMed Central

    Myagkov, Mikhail G.

    2017-01-01

    In this research, the social behavior of the participants in a Prisoner's Dilemma laboratory game is explained on the basis of the quantal response equilibrium concept and the representation of the game in Markov strategies. In previous research, we demonstrated that social interaction during the experiment has a positive influence on cooperation, trust, and gratefulness. This research shows that the quantal response equilibrium concept agrees only with the results of experiments on cooperation in Prisoner’s Dilemma prior to social interaction. However, quantal response equilibrium does not explain of participants’ behavior after social interaction. As an alternative theoretical approach, an examination was conducted of iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game in Markov strategies. We built a totally mixed Nash equilibrium in this game; the equilibrium agrees with the results of the experiments both before and after social interaction. PMID:29190280

  20. The evaluation model of the enterprise energy efficiency based on DPSR.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jin-Yu; Zhao, Xiao-Yu; Sun, Xue-Shan

    2017-05-08

    The reasonable evaluation of the enterprise energy efficiency is an important work in order to reduce the energy consumption. In this paper, an effective energy efficiency evaluation index system is proposed based on DPSR (Driving forces-Pressure-State-Response) with the consideration of the actual situation of enterprises. This index system which covers multi-dimensional indexes of the enterprise energy efficiency can reveal the complete causal chain which includes the "driver forces" and "pressure" of the enterprise energy efficiency "state" caused by the internal and external environment, and the ultimate enterprise energy-saving "response" measures. Furthermore, the ANP (Analytic Network Process) and cloud model are used to calculate the weight of each index and evaluate the energy efficiency level. The analysis of BL Company verifies the feasibility of this index system and also provides an effective way to improve the energy efficiency at last.

  1. Automation of Endmember Pixel Selection in SEBAL/METRIC Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, N.; Quackenbush, L. J.; Im, J.; Shaw, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    The commonly applied surface energy balance for land (SEBAL) and its variant, mapping evapotranspiration (ET) at high resolution with internalized calibration (METRIC) models require manual selection of endmember (i.e. hot and cold) pixels to calibrate sensible heat flux. Current approaches for automating this process are based on statistical methods and do not appear to be robust under varying climate conditions and seasons. In this paper, we introduce a new approach based on simple machine learning tools and search algorithms that provides an automatic and time efficient way of identifying endmember pixels for use in these models. The fully automated models were applied on over 100 cloud-free Landsat images with each image covering several eddy covariance flux sites in Florida and Oklahoma. Observed land surface temperatures at automatically identified hot and cold pixels were within 0.5% of those from pixels manually identified by an experienced operator (coefficient of determination, R2, ≥ 0.92, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, ≥ 0.92, and root mean squared error, RMSE, ≤ 1.67 K). Daily ET estimates derived from the automated SEBAL and METRIC models were in good agreement with their manual counterparts (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.91 and RMSE ≤ 0.35 mm day-1). Automated and manual pixel selection resulted in similar estimates of observed ET across all sites. The proposed approach should reduce time demands for applying SEBAL/METRIC models and allow for their more widespread and frequent use. This automation can also reduce potential bias that could be introduced by an inexperienced operator and extend the domain of the models to new users.

  2. Application of SPHY model for Understanding the Hydrological Regime of Tamor River, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaidya, A.; Kayastha, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    With the changing climate the hydrology of the rivers are also changing so to understand the actual impacts hydrological modelling plays a very vital role. In this study a distributed SPHY model is used in Tamor River basin located in the eastern part of Nepal to estimate the snow and glacier melt contribution in the discharge. The model calculates the each component of water balance equation in each grid cell of the basin and routes it to the outlet point. The model simulates the daily discharge for both calibration (2002-2005) and validation year (2006-2010) competently with coefficient of determination (R2) 0.78 and 0.76 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) 0.73 and 0.7, respectively. The model simulates the low flow with high efficiency whereas high flows are under estimated. The snow and glacier melt contribution in the river discharge is 20% for both calibration and validation year. The precipitation and temperature data for CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios after bias correction are used to simulate the projected discharge for period (2020-2099). The average discharge of the period is 170.21 m3 s-1 and 188.45 m3 s-1 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt in the discharge for the whole period (2020-2099) is similar to the calibration and validation year but decadal analysis shows that the contribution is highest in the midst of the period and again decreasing towards the end for both scenarios. The findings of the study indicate further monitoring and modeling is necessary to get better grasp of the subject.

  3. Stepwise sensitivity analysis from qualitative to quantitative: Application to the terrestrial hydrological modeling of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process (CSSP) land surface model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, Yanjun; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Duan, Qingyun; Choi, Hyun Il; Dai, Yongjiu; Wu, Huan

    2015-06-01

    An uncertainty quantification framework was employed to examine the sensitivities of 24 model parameters from a newly developed Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process (CSSP) land surface model (LSM). The sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed over 18 representative watersheds in the contiguous United States to examine the influence of model parameters in the simulation of terrestrial hydrological processes. Two normalized metrics, relative bias (RB) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), were adopted to assess the fit between simulated and observed streamflow discharge (SD) and evapotranspiration (ET) for a 14 year period. SA was conducted using a multiobjective two-stage approach, in which the first stage was a qualitative SA using the Latin Hypercube-based One-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) screening, and the second stage was a quantitative SA using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)-based Sobol' sensitivity indices. This approach combines the merits of qualitative and quantitative global SA methods, and is effective and efficient for understanding and simplifying large, complex system models. Ten of the 24 parameters were identified as important across different watersheds. The contribution of each parameter to the total response variance was then quantified by Sobol' sensitivity indices. Generally, parameter interactions contribute the most to the response variance of the CSSP, and only 5 out of 24 parameters dominate model behavior. Four photosynthetic and respiratory parameters are shown to be influential to ET, whereas reference depth for saturated hydraulic conductivity is the most influential parameter for SD in most watersheds. Parameter sensitivity patterns mainly depend on hydroclimatic regime, as well as vegetation type and soil texture. This article was corrected on 26 JUN 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  4. Estimation of Groundwater Recharge in a Japanese Headwater Area by Intensive Collaboration of Field Survey and Modelling Work

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yano, S.; Kondo, H.; Tawara, Y.; Yamada, T.; Mori, K.; Yoshida, A.; Tada, K.; Tsujimura, M.; Tokunaga, T.

    2017-12-01

    It is important to understand groundwater systems, including their recharge, flow, storage, discharge, and withdrawal, so that we can use groundwater resources efficiently and sustainably. To examine groundwater recharge, several methods have been discussed based on water balance estimation, in situ experiments, and hydrological tracers. However, few studies have developed a concrete framework for quantifying groundwater recharge rates in an undefined area. In this study, we established a robust method to quantitatively determine water cycles and estimate the groundwater recharge rate by combining the advantages of field surveys and model simulations. We replicated in situ hydrogeological observations and three-dimensional modeling in a mountainous basin area in Japan. We adopted a general-purpose terrestrial fluid-flow simulator (GETFLOWS) to develop a geological model and simulate the local water cycle. Local data relating to topology, geology, vegetation, land use, climate, and water use were collected from the existing literature and observations to assess the spatiotemporal variations of the water balance from 2011 to 2013. The characteristic structures of geology and soils, as found through field surveys, were parameterized for incorporation into the model. The simulated results were validated using observed groundwater levels and resulted in a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient of 0.92. The results suggested that local groundwater flows across the watershed boundary and that the groundwater recharge rate, defined as the flux of water reaching the local unconfined groundwater table, has values similar to the level estimated in the `the lower soil layers on a long-term basis. This innovative method enables us to quantify the groundwater recharge rate and its spatiotemporal variability with high accuracy, which contributes to establishing a foundation for sustainable groundwater management.

  5. Ranking streamflow model performance based on Information theory metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov; Pan, Feng; Wagener, Thorsten; Nicholson, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic model evaluation and selection. We simulated 10-year streamflow time series in five watersheds located in Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and West Virginia. Eight model of different complexity were applied. The information-theory based metrics were obtained after representing the time series as strings of symbols where different symbols corresponded to different quantiles of the probability distribution of streamflow. The symbol alphabet was used. Three metrics were computed for those strings - mean information gain that measures the randomness of the signal, effective measure complexity that characterizes predictability and fluctuation complexity that characterizes the presence of a pattern in the signal. The observed streamflow time series has smaller information content and larger complexity metrics than the precipitation time series. Watersheds served as information filters and and streamflow time series were less random and more complex than the ones of precipitation. This is reflected the fact that the watershed acts as the information filter in the hydrologic conversion process from precipitation to streamflow. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric increased as the complexity of models increased, but in many cases several model had this efficiency values not statistically significant from each other. In such cases, ranking models by the closeness of the information-theory based parameters in simulated and measured streamflow time series can provide an additional criterion for the evaluation of hydrologic model performance.

  6. Integrated water system simulation by considering hydrological and biogeochemical processes: model development, with parameter sensitivity and autocalibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y. Y.; Shao, Q. X.; Ye, A. Z.; Xing, H. T.; Xia, J.

    2016-02-01

    Integrated water system modeling is a feasible approach to understanding severe water crises in the world and promoting the implementation of integrated river basin management. In this study, a classic hydrological model (the time variant gain model: TVGM) was extended to an integrated water system model by coupling multiple water-related processes in hydrology, biogeochemistry, water quality, and ecology, and considering the interference of human activities. A parameter analysis tool, which included sensitivity analysis, autocalibration and model performance evaluation, was developed to improve modeling efficiency. To demonstrate the model performances, the Shaying River catchment, which is the largest highly regulated and heavily polluted tributary of the Huai River basin in China, was selected as the case study area. The model performances were evaluated on the key water-related components including runoff, water quality, diffuse pollution load (or nonpoint sources) and crop yield. Results showed that our proposed model simulated most components reasonably well. The simulated daily runoff at most regulated and less-regulated stations matched well with the observations. The average correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. Both the simulated low and high flows at most stations were improved when the dam regulation was considered. The daily ammonium-nitrogen (NH4-N) concentration was also well captured with the average correlation coefficient of 0.67. Furthermore, the diffuse source load of NH4-N and the corn yield were reasonably simulated at the administrative region scale. This integrated water system model is expected to improve the simulation performances with extension to more model functionalities, and to provide a scientific basis for the implementation in integrated river basin managements.

  7. Indexing and filing of pathological illustrations.

    PubMed Central

    Brown, R A; Fawkes, R S; Beck, J S

    1975-01-01

    An inexpensive feature card retrieval system has been combined with the Systematised Nomenclature of Pathology (SNOP) to provide simple but efficient means of indexing and filing 2 in. x 2 in. transparencies within a department of pathology. Using this system 2400 transparencies and the associated index cards can be conveniently stored in one drawer of a standard filing cabinet. Images PMID:1123438

  8. Optimal embedding for shape indexing in medical image databases.

    PubMed

    Qian, Xiaoning; Tagare, Hemant D; Fulbright, Robert K; Long, Rodney; Antani, Sameer

    2010-06-01

    This paper addresses the problem of indexing shapes in medical image databases. Shapes of organs are often indicative of disease, making shape similarity queries important in medical image databases. Mathematically, shapes with landmarks belong to shape spaces which are curved manifolds with a well defined metric. The challenge in shape indexing is to index data in such curved spaces. One natural indexing scheme is to use metric trees, but metric trees are prone to inefficiency. This paper proposes a more efficient alternative. We show that it is possible to optimally embed finite sets of shapes in shape space into a Euclidean space. After embedding, classical coordinate-based trees can be used for efficient shape retrieval. The embedding proposed in the paper is optimal in the sense that it least distorts the partial Procrustes shape distance. The proposed indexing technique is used to retrieve images by vertebral shape from the NHANES II database of cervical and lumbar spine X-ray images maintained at the National Library of Medicine. Vertebral shape strongly correlates with the presence of osteophytes, and shape similarity retrieval is proposed as a tool for retrieval by osteophyte presence and severity. Experimental results included in the paper evaluate (1) the usefulness of shape similarity as a proxy for osteophytes, (2) the computational and disk access efficiency of the new indexing scheme, (3) the relative performance of indexing with embedding to the performance of indexing without embedding, and (4) the computational cost of indexing using the proposed embedding versus the cost of an alternate embedding. The experimental results clearly show the relevance of shape indexing and the advantage of using the proposed embedding. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

    2016-06-01

    Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

  10. Data for Figures in Rainfall-induced release of microbes from manure: model development, parameter estimation, and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    ? Figure 1. Ratio of cumulative released cells to cells initially present in the manure at Week 0 as they vary by time, manure type and age, microbe, and Event (i.e., season). The 95% confidence intervals of the observed median number of cells in microbial runoff are shown as the shaded area.? Figure 2. Typical observed and simulated cumulative microbial runoff for Plots A403 and C209 with individual plot calibration.? Figure 3. Observed versus simulated microbial runoff associated with the Approach 1, adjusted for cumulative results by manure type and Event. Results accounted for counts associated with field monitoring time intervals described in Section 2.1 Field method. NS=Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, EC=E. coli, En=enterococci, FC= fecal coliforms.? Figure 4. Ratio of cumulative released cells/mass to cells/mass initially present in the aged manure by time and component (e.g., microbe) for solid manure (a) and (b), and amended, dry litter, and slurry manure (c). Solid lines (Equation (11) correspond to values in Table 3 for solid manure, and dry litter and slurry manure, respectively: (a) uses individual b values, and (b) and (c) use the combined values for b. Bounds of first and third quartiles associated with the present study??s results for cattle. Bounds of first and third quartiles associated with the present study??s results for poultry and swine. The full color versions of all figures are available in the online version of this paper, at ht

  11. Quantifying shallow subsurface water and heat dynamics using coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion

    DOE PAGES

    Tran, Anh Phuong; Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan S.; ...

    2016-04-25

    Improving our ability to estimate the parameters that control water and heat fluxes in the shallow subsurface is particularly important due to their strong control on recharge, evaporation and biogeochemical processes. The objectives of this study are to develop and test a new inversion scheme to simultaneously estimate subsurface hydrological, thermal and petrophysical parameters using hydrological, thermal and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. The inversion scheme-which is based on a nonisothermal, multiphase hydrological model-provides the desired subsurface property estimates in high spatiotemporal resolution. A particularly novel aspect of the inversion scheme is the explicit incorporation of the dependence of themore » subsurface electrical resistivity on both moisture and temperature. The scheme was applied to synthetic case studies, as well as to real datasets that were autonomously collected at a biogeochemical field study site in Rifle, Colorado. At the Rifle site, the coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion approach well predicted the matric potential, temperature and apparent resistivity with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion greater than 0.92. Synthetic studies found that neglecting the subsurface temperature variability, and its effect on the electrical resistivity in the hydrogeophysical inversion, may lead to an incorrect estimation of the hydrological parameters. The approach is expected to be especially useful for the increasing number of studies that are taking advantage of autonomously collected ERT and soil measurements to explore complex terrestrial system dynamics.« less

  12. Modelling sheet erosion on steep slopes in the loess region of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bing; Wang, Zhanli; Zhang, Qingwei; Shen, Nan; Liu, June

    2017-10-01

    The relationship of sheet erosion rate (SE), slope gradient (S) and rainfall intensity (I), and hydraulic parameters, such as flow velocity (V), shear stress (τ), stream power (Ω) and unit stream power (P), was investigated to derive an accurate experimental model. The experiment was conducted at slopes of 12.23%, 17.63%, 26.8%, 36.4%, 40.4% and 46.63% under I of 48, 60, 90, 120, 138 and 150 mm h-1, respectively, using simulated rainfall. Results showed that sheet erosion rate increased as a power function with rainfall intensity and slope gradient with R2 = 0.95 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) = 0.87. Sheet erosion rate was more sensitive to rainfall intensity than to slope gradient. It increased as a power function with flow velocity, which was satisfactory for predicting sheet erosion rate with R2 = 0.95 and NSE = 0.81. Shear stress and stream power could be used to predict sheet erosion rate accurately with a linear function equation. Stream power (R2 = 0.97, NSE = 0.97) was a better predictor of sheet erosion rather than shear stress (R2 = 0.90, NSE = 0.89). However, a prediction based on unit stream power was poor. The new equation (i.e. SE = 7.5 ×1012S1.43I3.04 and SE = 0.06 Ω - 0.0003 and SE = 0.011 τ - 0.01) would improve water erosion estimation on loess hillslopes of China.

  13. Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

    2017-11-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

  14. Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, G.A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Gautam, D.K.; Tokar, S.A.

    2011-01-01

    In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32000km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC-RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC-RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC-RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management ?? 2011 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management.

  15. Hydrograph matching method for measuring model performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewen, John

    2011-09-01

    SummaryDespite all the progress made over the years on developing automatic methods for analysing hydrographs and measuring the performance of rainfall-runoff models, automatic methods cannot yet match the power and flexibility of the human eye and brain. Very simple approaches are therefore being developed that mimic the way hydrologists inspect and interpret hydrographs, including the way that patterns are recognised, links are made by eye, and hydrological responses and errors are studied and remembered. In this paper, a dynamic programming algorithm originally designed for use in data mining is customised for use with hydrographs. It generates sets of "rays" that are analogous to the visual links made by the hydrologist's eye when linking features or times in one hydrograph to the corresponding features or times in another hydrograph. One outcome from this work is a new family of performance measures called "visual" performance measures. These can measure differences in amplitude and timing, including the timing errors between simulated and observed hydrographs in model calibration. To demonstrate this, two visual performance measures, one based on the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the other on the mean absolute error, are used in a total of 34 split-sample calibration-validation tests for two rainfall-runoff models applied to the Hodder catchment, northwest England. The customised algorithm, called the Hydrograph Matching Algorithm, is very simple to apply; it is given in a few lines of pseudocode.

  16. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Streamflow Predictions Using Swat for Brazos-Colorado Coastal Watershed, Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, D.; Bhatia, N.; Srivastav, R. K.

    2016-12-01

    Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most comprehensive hydrologic models to simulate streamflow for a watershed. The two major inputs for a SWAT model are: (i) Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and (ii) Land Use and Land Cover Maps (LULC). This study aims to quantify the uncertainty in streamflow predictions using SWAT for San Bernard River in Brazos-Colorado coastal watershed, Texas, by incorporating the respective datasets from different sources: (i) DEM data will be obtained from ASTER GDEM V2, GMTED2010, NHD DEM, and SRTM DEM datasets with ranging resolution from 1/3 arc-second to 30 arc-second, and (ii) LULC data will be obtained from GLCC V2, MRLC NLCD2011, NOAA's C-CAP, USGS GAP, and TCEQ databases. Weather variables (Precipitation and Max-Min Temperature at daily scale) will be obtained from National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and SWAT in-built STASGO tool will be used to obtain the soil maps. The SWAT model will be calibrated using SWAT-CUP SUFI-2 approach and its performance will be evaluated using the statistical indices of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ratio of Root-Mean-Square-Error to standard deviation of observed streamflow (RSR), and Percent-Bias Error (PBIAS). The study will help understand the performance of SWAT model with varying data sources and eventually aid the regional state water boards in planning, designing, and managing hydrologic systems.

  17. Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2013-04-01

    SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

  18. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  19. Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2018-03-01

    The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){<}15%, at each stream gauge sites. Thereafter, we have calculated the PBIAS and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) statistics between TRMM simulated and observed streamflow for various rainfall intensity classes, viz., light ({<}7.5 mm/d), moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/d), heavy (35.5 to 124.4 mm/d) and extremely heavy ({>}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

  20. Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

    2016-01-01

    We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.

  1. Comparison between satellite precipitation product and observation rain gauges in the Red-Thai Binh River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lakshmi, V.; Le, M. H.; Sutton, J. R. P.; Bui, D. D.; Bolten, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Red-ThaiBinh River is the second largest river in Vietnam in terms of economic impact and is home to around 29 million people. The river has been facing challenges for water resources allocation, which require reliable and routine hydrological assessments. However, hydrological analysis is difficult due to insufficient spatial coverage by rain gauges. Satellite-based precipitation estimates are a promising alternative with high-resolution in both time and space. This study aims at investigating the uncertainties in satellite-based precipitation product TRMM 3B42 v7.0 by comparing them against in-situ measurements over the Red-ThaiBinh River basin. The TRMM 3B42 v7.0 are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations over a 17-year period (1998 - 2014). Preliminary results indicate that at a daily scale, except for low Mean Bias Error (MBE), satellite based rainfall product has weak relationship with ground observation data, indicating by average performance of 0.326 and -0.485 for correlation coefficient and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), respectively. At monthly scale, we observe that the TRMM 3B42 v7.0 has higher correlation with the correlation increased significantly to 0.863 and NSE of 0.522. By analyzing wet season (May - October) and dry season (November - April) separately we find that the correlation between the TRMM 3B42 v7.0 with ground observations were higher for wet season than the dry season.

  2. Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2015-08-01

    Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

  3. Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mai, Juliane; Cuntz, Matthias; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2016-04-01

    Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

  4. Predicting hydrologic function with the streamwater mircobiome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Good, S. P.; URycki, D. R.; Crump, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Recent advances in microbiology allow for rapid and cost-effective determination of the presence of a nearly limitless number of bacterial (and other) species within a water sample. Here, we posit that the quasi-unique taxonomic composition of the aquatic microbiome is an emergent property of a catchment that contains information about hydrologic function at multiple temporal and spatial scales, and term this approach `genohydrolgy.' As first a genohydrology case study, we show that the relative abundance of bacterial species within different operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from six large arctic rivers can be used to predict river discharge at monthly and longer timescales. Using only OTU abundance information and a machine-learning algorithm trained on OTU and discharge data from the other five rivers, our genohydrology approach is able to predict mean monthly discharge values throughout the year with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.50, while the recurrence interval of extreme flows at longer times scales in these rivers was predicted with an NSE of 0.04. This approach demonstrates considerable improvement over prediction of these quantities in each river based only on discharge data from the other five (our null hypothesis), which had average NSE values of -1.19 and -5.50 for the seasonal and recurrence interval discharge values, respectively. Overall the genohydrology approach demonstrates that bacterial diversity within the aquatic microbiome is a large and underutilized data resource with benefits for prediction of hydrologic function.

  5. Modelling runoff on ceramic tile roofs using the kinematic wave equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silveira, Alexandre; Abrantes, João; de Lima, João; Lira, Lincoln

    2016-04-01

    Rainwater harvesting is a water saving alternative strategy that presents many advantages and can provide solutions to address major water resources problems, such as fresh water scarcity, urban stream degradation and flooding. In recent years, these problems have become global challenges, due to climatic change, population growth and increasing urbanisation. Generally, roofs are the first to come into contact with rainwater; thus, they are the best candidates for rainwater harvesting. In this context, the correct evaluation of roof runoff quantity and quality is essential to effectively design rainwater harvesting systems. Despite this, many studies usually focus on the qualitative aspects in detriment of the quantitative aspects. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators have been widely used to investigate rainfall-runoff processes. These studies enabled a detailed exploration and systematic replication of a large range of hydrologic conditions, such as rainfall spatial and temporal characteristics, providing for a fast way to obtain precise and consistent data that can be used to calibrate and validate numerical models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a kinematic wave based numerical model in simulating runoff on sloping roofs, by comparing the numerical results with the ones obtained from laboratory rainfall simulations on a real-scale ceramic tile roof (Lusa tiles). For all studied slopes, simulated discharge hydrographs had a good adjust to observed ones. Coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values were close to 1.0. Particularly, peak discharges, times to peak and peak durations were very well simulated.

  6. Modelling the effect of fire frequency on runoff and erosion in north-central Portugal using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini, Mohammadreza; Nunes, João Pedro; González Pelayo, Oscar; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

    2017-04-01

    Models can be valuable for foreseeing the hydrological effects of fires and to plan and execute post-fire management alternatives. In this study, the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model was utilized to simulate runoff and soil erosion in recently burned maritime pine plantations with different fire regimes, in a wet Mediterranean area of north-central Portugal. The MMF model was adjusted for burned zones in order to accommodate seasonal patterns in runoff and soil erosion, attributed to changes in soil water repellency and vegetation recovery. The model was then assessed by applying it for a sum of 18 experimental micro-plots (0.25 m2) at 9 1x-burnt and 9 4x-burnt slopes, using both literature-based and calibrated parameters, with the collected data used to assess the robustness of each parameterization. The estimate of erosion was more exact than that of runoff, with a general Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.54. Slope angle and the soil's effective hydrological depth (which relies on upon vegetation and additionally crop cover) were found to be the primary parameters enhancing model results, and different hydrological depths were expected to separate between the two differentiating fire regimes. This relative analysis demonstrated that most existing benchmark parameters can be utilized to apply MMF in burnt pine regions with moderate severity to support post-fire management; however it also showed that further endeavours ought to concentrate on mapping soil depth and vegetation cover to enhance these simulations.

  7. Closed flume inlet efficiency.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-04-01

    The goal of the present study was to determine the efficiency of a specific culvert geometry, labeled as : Index 216 Closed Flume Inlet (CFI) in the FDOTs Design Standards, and to determine if geometric changes : affect the efficiency of the curre...

  8. High-Efficiency and High-Color-Rendering-Index Semitransparent Polymer Solar Cells Induced by Photonic Crystals and Surface Plasmon Resonance.

    PubMed

    Shen, Ping; Wang, Guoxin; Kang, Bonan; Guo, Wenbin; Shen, Liang

    2018-02-21

    Semitransparent polymer solar cells (ST-PSCs) show attractive potential in power-generating windows or building-integrated photovoltaics. However, the development of ST-PSCs is lagging behind opaque PSCs because of the contradiction between device efficiency and transmission. Herein, Ag/Au alloy nanoparticles and photonic crystals (PCs) were simultaneously introduced into ST-PSCs, acting compatibly as localized surface plasmon resonances and distributed Bragg reflectors to enhance light absorption and transmission. As a result, ST-PSCs based on a hybrid PTB7-Th:PC 71 BM active layer contribute an efficiency as high as 7.13 ± 0.15% and an average visible transmission beyond 20%, which are superior to most of the reported results. Furthermore, PCs can partly compensate valley range of transmission by balancing reflection and transmission regions, yielding a high color rendering index of 95. We believe that the idea of two light management methods compatibly enhancing the performance of ST-PSCs can offer a promising path to develop photovoltaic applications.

  9. A clinical scoring system for predicting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in morbidly obese patients.

    PubMed

    Campos, Guilherme M; Bambha, Kiran; Vittinghoff, Eric; Rabl, Charlotte; Posselt, Andrew M; Ciovica, Ruxandra; Tiwari, Umesh; Ferrel, Linda; Pabst, Mark; Bass, Nathan M; Merriman, Raphael B

    2008-06-01

    Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is common in morbidly obese persons. Liver biopsy is diagnostic but technically challenging in such individuals. This study was undertaken to develop a clinically useful scoring system to predict the probability of NASH in morbidly obese persons, thus assisting in the decision to perform liver biopsy. Consecutive subjects undergoing bariatric surgery without evidence of other liver disease underwent intraoperative liver biopsy. The outcome was pathologic diagnosis of NASH. Predictors evaluated were demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. A clinical scoring system was constructed by rounding the estimated regression coefficients for the independent predictors in a multivariate logistic model for the diagnosis of NASH. Of 200 subjects studied, 64 (32%) had NASH. Median body mass index was 48 kg/m(2) (interquartile range, 43-55). Multivariate analysis identified six predictive factors for NASH: the diagnosis of hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1-5.6), type 2 diabetes (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.3), sleep apnea (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.3-12.2), AST > 27 IU/L (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) > 27 IU/L (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.4-8.0), and non-Black race (OR, 8.4; 95% CI, 1.9-37.1). A NASH Clinical Scoring System for Morbid Obesity was derived to predict the probability of NASH in four categories (low, intermediate, high, and very high). The proposed clinical scoring can predict NASH in morbidly obese persons with sufficient accuracy to be considered for clinical use, identifying a very high-risk group in whom liver biopsy would be very likely to detect NASH, as well as a low-risk group in whom biopsy can be safely delayed or avoided.

  10. Efficiency index: a new parameter to define breathing patterns during dynamic Xe-127 ventilation studies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Slosman, D.; Susskind, H.; Bossuyt, A.

    1986-03-01

    Ventilation imaging can be improved by gating scintigraphic data with the respiratory cycle using temporal Fourier analysis (TFA) to quantify the temporal behavior of the ventilation. Sixteen consecutive images, representing equal-time increments of an average respiratory cycle, were produced by TFA in the posterior view on a pixel-by-pixel basis. An Efficiency Index (EFF), defined as the ratio of the summation of all the differences between maximum and minimum counts for each pixel to that for the entire lung during the respiratory cycle, was derived to describe the pattern of ventilation. The gated ventilation studies were carried out with Xe-127 inmore » 12 subjects: normal lung function (4), small airway disease (2), COPD (5), and restrictive disease (1). EFF for the first three harmonics correlated linearly with FEV1 (r = 0.701, p< 0.01). This approach is suggested as a very sensitive method to quantify the extent and regional distribution of airway obstruction.« less

  11. [Characteristics of phosphorus uptake and use efficiency of rice with high yield and high phosphorus use efficiency].

    PubMed

    Li, Li; Zhang, Xi-Zhou; Li, Tinx-Xuan; Yu, Hai-Ying; Ji, Lin; Chen, Guang-Deng

    2014-07-01

    A total of twenty seven middle maturing rice varieties as parent materials were divided into four types based on P use efficiency for grain yield in 2011 by field experiment with normal phosphorus (P) application. The rice variety with high yield and high P efficiency was identified by pot experiment with normal and low P applications, and the contribution rates of various P efficiencies to yield were investigated in 2012. There were significant genotype differences in yield and P efficiency of the test materials. GRLu17/AiTTP//Lu17_2 (QR20) was identified as a variety with high yield and high P efficiency, and its yields at the low and normal rates of P application were 1.96 and 1.92 times of that of Yuxiang B, respectively. The contribution rate of P accumulation to yield was greater than that of P grain production efficiency and P harvest index across field and pot experiments. The contribution rates of P accumulation and P grain production efficiency to yield were not significantly different under the normal P condition, whereas obvious differences were observed under the low P condition (66.5% and 26.6%). The minimal contribution to yield was P harvest index (11.8%). Under the normal P condition, the contribution rates of P accumulation to yield and P harvest index were the highest at the jointing-heading stage, which were 93.4% and 85.7%, respectively. In addition, the contribution rate of P accumulation to grain production efficiency was 41.8%. Under the low P condition, the maximal contribution rates of P accumulation to yield and grain production efficiency were observed at the tillering-jointing stage, which were 56.9% and 20.1% respectively. Furthermore, the contribution rate of P accumulation to P harvest index was 16.0%. The yield, P accumulation, and P harvest index of QR20 significantly increased under the normal P condition by 20.6%, 18.1% and 18.2% respectively compared with that in the low P condition. The rank of the contribution rates of P

  12. Plasma total and free fatty acids composition in human non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.

    PubMed

    de Almeida, I Tavares; Cortez-Pinto, H; Fidalgo, G; Rodrigues, D; Camilo, M E

    2002-06-01

    Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the association of steatosis with an inflammatory response, is a novel liver disease of unknown pathogenesis and prognosis. Triacylglycerols and their precursors, the fatty acids, are the likely candidates to accumulate in the hepatocyte. Disturbed fatty acid metabolism can be involved in the pathogenesis of NASH but there is no information concerning its plasma fatty acid profile. The aim of this study was to evaluate plasma total (esterified plus free) and free fatty acids concentrations to assess the association of NASH with plasma fatty acid accumulation. Overnight fasting blood samples from 22 biopsy-proven NASH patients and of 6 matched age healthy controls were studied. NASH patients had significantly higher concentration of total and free fatty acids than controls (P<0.05), higher total saturated and monounsaturated levels in both studied lipid fractions (P<0.05), mainly due to the increase of hexadecanoic, hexadecenoic and octadecenoic acids. Absolute polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) concentrations were similar in both groups. The C20:4/C18:2 and the C18:1/C18:0 ratios as well as the peroxidability index were not significantly different. In overweight/obese patients NASH is associated with deranged fatty acid metabolism which may be involved in its pathogenesis and/or progression.

  13. The lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Chen-Chen; Ji, Shen-Dan; Su, Li-Ling; Li, Sai-Ping; Ren, Fei

    2016-02-01

    The study of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures is of great importance for its wide application in hedging and portfolio investments. Previous works mainly use conventional methods like Granger causality test, GARCH model and error correction model, and focus on the causality relation between the index and futures in a certain period. By using a non-parametric approach-thermal optimal path (TOP) method, we study the lead-lag relationship between China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), Hang Seng Index (HSI), Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) Index and their associated futures to reveal the variance of their relationship over time. Our finding shows evidence of pronounced futures leadership for well established index futures, namely HSI and S&P 500 index futures, while index of developing market like CSI 300 has pronounced leadership. We offer an explanation based on the measure of an indicator which quantifies the differences between spot and futures prices for the surge of lead-lag function. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, which is valuable for the study of market efficiency and its applications.

  14. Comparison of Precipitation from Gauge and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) for River Basins of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, A.; Chandniha, S. K.; Lakshmi, V.; Kundu, S.; Hashemi, H.

    2017-12-01

    This study compares the monthly precipitation from the gridded rain gauge data collected by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the retrievals from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) for the river basins of India using the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 7 (V7). The IMD and TMPA datasets have the same spatial resolution (0.25°×0.25°) and extend from 1998 to 2013. The TRMM data accuracy for the river basins is assessed by comparison with IMD using root mean square error (RMSE), normalized mean square error (NMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NASH) and correlation coefficient (CC) methods. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) tests have been applied for analyzing the data trend, and the change has been detected by Sen's Slope using both data sets for annual and seasonal time periods. The change in intensity of precipitation is estimated by percentage for comparing actual differences in various river basins. Variation in precipitation is high (>100 mm represents >15% of average annual precipitation) in Brahmaputra, rivers draining into Myanmar (RDM), rivers draining into Bangladesh (RDB), east flowing rivers between Mahanadi and Godavari (EMG), east flowing rivers between Pennar and Cauvery (EPC), Cauvery and Tapi. The NASH and CC values vary between 0.80 to 0.98 and 0.87 to 0.99 in all river basins except area of north Ladakh not draining into Indus (NLI) and east flowing rivers south of Cauvery (ESC), while RMSE and NMSE vary from 15.95 to 101.68 mm and 2.66 to 58.38 mm, respectively. The trends for TMPA and IMD datasets from 1998 to 2013 are quite similar in MK (except 4 river basins) and MMK (except 3 river basins). The estimated results imply that the TMPA precipitation show good agreement and can be used in climate studies and hydrological simulations in locations/river basins where the number of rain gauge stations is not adequate to quantify the spatial variability of precipitation. Keywords

  15. Evaluation of railway transportation efficiency based on super-cross efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuang, Xiuyuan

    2018-01-01

    The efficiency of railway transportation is an important index. It can measure the development of railway transportation enterprises, and the efficiency of railway transportation has become a hot issue in the study of railway development. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been widely applied to railway efficiency analysis. In this paper, BBC model and super-cross efficiency model are constructed by using DEA theory, taking the 18 Railway Bureau as the research object, with the mileage, the number of employees, locomotive number, average daily loading number as input indicators, the passenger turnover, freight turnover and transport income as output indicators, then calculated and evaluated comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. We get that the super-cross efficiency is more in line with the actual situation. Getting the super-cross efficiency is more in line with the actual situation.

  16. Aggregated Indexing of Biomedical Time Series Data

    PubMed Central

    Woodbridge, Jonathan; Mortazavi, Bobak; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Bui, Alex A.T.

    2016-01-01

    Remote and wearable medical sensing has the potential to create very large and high dimensional datasets. Medical time series databases must be able to efficiently store, index, and mine these datasets to enable medical professionals to effectively analyze data collected from their patients. Conventional high dimensional indexing methods are a two stage process. First, a superset of the true matches is efficiently extracted from the database. Second, supersets are pruned by comparing each of their objects to the query object and rejecting any objects falling outside a predetermined radius. This pruning stage heavily dominates the computational complexity of most conventional search algorithms. Therefore, indexing algorithms can be significantly improved by reducing the amount of pruning. This paper presents an online algorithm to aggregate biomedical times series data to significantly reduce the search space (index size) without compromising the quality of search results. This algorithm is built on the observation that biomedical time series signals are composed of cyclical and often similar patterns. This algorithm takes in a stream of segments and groups them to highly concentrated collections. Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) is used to reduce the overall complexity of the algorithm, allowing it to run online. The output of this aggregation is used to populate an index. The proposed algorithm yields logarithmic growth of the index (with respect to the total number of objects) while keeping sensitivity and specificity simultaneously above 98%. Both memory and runtime complexities of time series search are improved when using aggregated indexes. In addition, data mining tasks, such as clustering, exhibit runtimes that are orders of magnitudes faster when run on aggregated indexes. PMID:27617298

  17. Scaling up watershed model parameters: flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin, South Carolina, 2007-09

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Feaster, Toby D.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Clark, Jimmy M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Conrads, Paul

    2014-01-01

    As part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River Basin were made using the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). A primary focus of the investigation was to assess the potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River Basin. Scaling up was done in a step-wise manner, beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic-wetness-index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made for subsequent simulations, culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River Basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. The scaling-up process resulted in nine simulations being made. Simulation 7 best matched the streamflows at station 02175000, Edisto River near Givhans, SC, which was the downstream limit for the TOPMODEL setup, and was obtained by adjusting the scaling factor, including streamflow routing, and using NEXRAD precipitation data for the Edisto River Basin. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for simulation 7 were 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the McTier Creek and Edisto River models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the substantial difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL

  18. University of California, Davis | Division of Cancer Prevention

    Cancer.gov

    Member Information Dr. Julie L. Sutcliffe Laboratory websiteshttps://bme.ucdavis.edu/sutcliffe/ http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/publish/providerbio/search/21751 https://bme.ucdavis.edu/people/departmental-faculty/julie-sutcliffe/ |

  19. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in bariatric patients with a diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea.

    PubMed

    Weingarten, Toby N; Mantilla, Carlos B; Swain, James M; Kendrick, Michael L; Oberhansley, Jeff M; Burcham, Robert J; Ribeiro, Tarsila C R; Watt, Kymberly D; Schroeder, Darrell R; Narr, Bradly J; Sprung, Juraj

    2012-01-01

    To study a possible association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity, managed with noninvasive ventilation, and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in bariatric surgical patients. Medical records of 218 bariatric surgical patients who underwent liver biopsy were reviewed. OSA severity was determined from preoperative polysomnography (apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≤ 15 no/mild OSA vs. AHI ≥ 16 moderate/severe OSA). Patients diagnosed with OSA were prescribed noninvasive ventilation. Patients were categorized according to liver histopathology into 3 groups: (i) no liver disease or simple steatosis, (ii) mild NASH (steatosis with necroinflammation and mild fibrosis (stage 0-1)), and iii) advanced NASH (steatosis with necroinflammation and more advanced fibrosis (stage ≥ 2)). 125 patients (57%) had no/mild OSA, and 93 (43%) had moderate/severe OSA. There was no difference in serum aminotransferases between patients by OSA severity classification. There was a high prevalence of hepatic histopathological abnormalities: 84% patients had steatosis, 57% had necroinflammation, 34% had fibrotic changes, and 14% had advanced NASH. There was no association between severity of NASH and severity of OSA. There is no association between stage of steatohepatitis and OSA severity among morbidly obese patients managed with noninvasive ventilation.

  20. Evolution of wealth in a non-conservative economy driven by local Nash equilibria.

    PubMed

    Degond, Pierre; Liu, Jian-Guo; Ringhofer, Christian

    2014-11-13

    We develop a model for the evolution of wealth in a non-conservative economic environment, extending a theory developed in Degond et al. (2014 J. Stat. Phys. 154, 751-780 (doi:10.1007/s10955-013-0888-4)). The model considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game-theoretical framework. This evolution drives the dynamics of the agents in both wealth and economic configuration variables. The cost function is chosen to represent a risk-averse strategy of each agent. That is, the agent is more likely to interact with the market, the more predictable the market, and therefore the smaller its individual risk. This yields a kinetic equation for an effective single particle agent density with a Nash equilibrium serving as the local thermodynamic equilibrium. We consider a regime of scale separation where the large-scale dynamics is given by a hydrodynamic closure with this local equilibrium. A class of generalized collision invariants is developed to overcome the difficulty of the non-conservative property in the hydrodynamic closure derivation of the large-scale dynamics for the evolution of wealth distribution. The result is a system of gas dynamics-type equations for the density and average wealth of the agents on large scales. We recover the inverse Gamma distribution, which has been previously considered in the literature, as a local equilibrium for particular choices of the cost function. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  1. The use of ECDIS equipment to achieve an optimum value for energy efficiency operation index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acomi, N.; Acomi, O. C.; Stanca, C.

    2015-11-01

    To reduce air pollution produced by ships, the International Maritime Organization has developed a set of technical, operational and management measures. The subject of our research addresses the operational measures for minimizing CO2 air emissions and the way how the emission value could be influenced by external factors regardless of ship-owners’ will. This study aims to analyse the air emissions for a loaded voyage leg performed by an oil tanker. The formula that allows us to calculate the predicted Energy Efficiency Operational Index involves the estimation of distance and fuel consumption, while the quantity of cargo is known. The electronic chart display and information system, ECDIS Simulation Software, will be used for adjusting the passage plan in real time, given the predicted severe environmental conditions. The distance will be determined using ECDIS, while the prediction of the fuel consumption will consider the sea trial and the vessel experience records. That way it will be possible to compare the estimated EEOI value in the case of great circle navigation in adverse weather condition with the estimated EEOI value for weather navigation.

  2. Establishment and application of the estimation model for pollutant concentrfation in agriculture drain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qiangkun; Hu, Yawei; Jia, Qian; Song, Changji

    2018-02-01

    It is the key point of quantitative research on agricultural non-point source pollution load, the estimation of pollutant concentration in agricultural drain. In the guidance of uncertainty theory, the synthesis of fertilization and irrigation is used as an impulse input to the farmland, meanwhile, the pollutant concentration in agricultural drain is looked as the response process corresponding to the impulse input. The migration and transformation of pollutant in soil is expressed by Inverse Gaussian Probability Density Function. The law of pollutants migration and transformation in soil at crop different growth periods is reflected by adjusting parameters of Inverse Gaussian Distribution. Based on above, the estimation model for pollutant concentration in agricultural drain at field scale was constructed. Taking the of Qing Tong Xia Irrigation District in Ningxia as an example, the concentration of nitrate nitrogen and total phosphorus in agricultural drain was simulated by this model. The results show that the simulated results accorded with measured data approximately and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.972 and 0.964, respectively.

  3. Deduction of reservoir operating rules for application in global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coerver, Hubertus M.; Rutten, Martine M.; van de Giesen, Nick C.

    2018-01-01

    A big challenge in constructing global hydrological models is the inclusion of anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle, such as caused by dams. Dam operators make decisions based on experience and often uncertain information. In this study information generally available to dam operators, like inflow into the reservoir and storage levels, was used to derive fuzzy rules describing the way a reservoir is operated. Using an artificial neural network capable of mimicking fuzzy logic, called the ANFIS adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, fuzzy rules linking inflow and storage with reservoir release were determined for 11 reservoirs in central Asia, the US and Vietnam. By varying the input variables of the neural network, different configurations of fuzzy rules were created and tested. It was found that the release from relatively large reservoirs was significantly dependent on information concerning recent storage levels, while release from smaller reservoirs was more dependent on reservoir inflows. Subsequently, the derived rules were used to simulate reservoir release with an average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.81.

  4. Network formation: neighborhood structures, establishment costs, and distributed learning.

    PubMed

    Chasparis, Georgios C; Shamma, Jeff S

    2013-12-01

    We consider the problem of network formation in a distributed fashion. Network formation is modeled as a strategic-form game, where agents represent nodes that form and sever unidirectional links with other nodes and derive utilities from these links. Furthermore, agents can form links only with a limited set of neighbors. Agents trade off the benefit from links, which is determined by a distance-dependent reward function, and the cost of maintaining links. When each agent acts independently, trying to maximize its own utility function, we can characterize “stable” networks through the notion of Nash equilibrium. In fact, the introduced reward and cost functions lead to Nash equilibria (networks), which exhibit several desirable properties such as connectivity, bounded-hop diameter, and efficiency (i.e., minimum number of links). Since Nash networks may not necessarily be efficient, we also explore the possibility of “shaping” the set of Nash networks through the introduction of state-based utility functions. Such utility functions may represent dynamic phenomena such as establishment costs (either positive or negative). Finally, we show how Nash networks can be the outcome of a distributed learning process. In particular, we extend previous learning processes to so-called “state-based” weakly acyclic games, and we show that the proposed network formation games belong to this class of games.

  5. Nash points, Ky Fan inequality and equilibria of abstract economies in Max-Plus and -convexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briec, Walter; Horvath, Charles

    2008-05-01

    -convexity was introduced in [W. Briec, C. Horvath, -convexity, Optimization 53 (2004) 103-127]. Separation and Hahn-Banach like theorems can be found in [G. Adilov, A.M. Rubinov, -convex sets and functions, Numer. Funct. Anal. Optim. 27 (2006) 237-257] and [W. Briec, C.D. Horvath, A. Rubinov, Separation in -convexity, Pacific J. Optim. 1 (2005) 13-30]. We show here that all the basic results related to fixed point theorems are available in -convexity. Ky Fan inequality, existence of Nash equilibria and existence of equilibria for abstract economies are established in the framework of -convexity. Monotone analysis, or analysis on Maslov semimodules [V.N. Kolokoltsov, V.P. Maslov, Idempotent Analysis and Its Applications, Math. Appl., volE 401, Kluwer Academic, 1997; V.P. Litvinov, V.P. Maslov, G.B. Shpitz, Idempotent functional analysis: An algebraic approach, Math. Notes 69 (2001) 696-729; V.P. Maslov, S.N. Samborski (Eds.), Idempotent Analysis, Advances in Soviet Mathematics, Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 1992], is the natural framework for these results. From this point of view Max-Plus convexity and -convexity are isomorphic Maslov semimodules structures over isomorphic semirings. Therefore all the results of this paper hold in the context of Max-Plus convexity.

  6. A Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Data Indexing Method for Trajectory Databases

    PubMed Central

    Ke, Shengnan; Gong, Jun; Li, Songnian; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Xintao; Zhang, Yeting

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, there has been tremendous growth in the field of indoor and outdoor positioning sensors continuously producing huge volumes of trajectory data that has been used in many fields such as location-based services or location intelligence. Trajectory data is massively increased and semantically complicated, which poses a great challenge on spatio-temporal data indexing. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal data indexing method, named HBSTR-tree, which is a hybrid index structure comprising spatio-temporal R-tree, B*-tree and Hash table. To improve the index generation efficiency, rather than directly inserting trajectory points, we group consecutive trajectory points as nodes according to their spatio-temporal semantics and then insert them into spatio-temporal R-tree as leaf nodes. Hash table is used to manage the latest leaf nodes to reduce the frequency of insertion. A new spatio-temporal interval criterion and a new node-choosing sub-algorithm are also proposed to optimize spatio-temporal R-tree structures. In addition, a B*-tree sub-index of leaf nodes is built to query the trajectories of targeted objects efficiently. Furthermore, a database storage scheme based on a NoSQL-type DBMS is also proposed for the purpose of cloud storage. Experimental results prove that HBSTR-tree outperforms TB*-tree in some aspects such as generation efficiency, query performance and query type. PMID:25051028

  7. A hybrid spatio-temporal data indexing method for trajectory databases.

    PubMed

    Ke, Shengnan; Gong, Jun; Li, Songnian; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Xintao; Zhang, Yeting

    2014-07-21

    In recent years, there has been tremendous growth in the field of indoor and outdoor positioning sensors continuously producing huge volumes of trajectory data that has been used in many fields such as location-based services or location intelligence. Trajectory data is massively increased and semantically complicated, which poses a great challenge on spatio-temporal data indexing. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal data indexing method, named HBSTR-tree, which is a hybrid index structure comprising spatio-temporal R-tree, B*-tree and Hash table. To improve the index generation efficiency, rather than directly inserting trajectory points, we group consecutive trajectory points as nodes according to their spatio-temporal semantics and then insert them into spatio-temporal R-tree as leaf nodes. Hash table is used to manage the latest leaf nodes to reduce the frequency of insertion. A new spatio-temporal interval criterion and a new node-choosing sub-algorithm are also proposed to optimize spatio-temporal R-tree structures. In addition, a B*-tree sub-index of leaf nodes is built to query the trajectories of targeted objects efficiently. Furthermore, a database storage scheme based on a NoSQL-type DBMS is also proposed for the purpose of cloud storage. Experimental results prove that HBSTR-tree outperforms TB*-tree in some aspects such as generation efficiency, query performance and query type.

  8. Estimation of Flow Duration Curve for Ungauged Catchments using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Map Correlation Method: A Case Study from Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kentel, E.; Dogulu, N.

    2015-12-01

    In Turkey the experience and data required for a hydrological model setup is limited and very often not available. Moreover there are many ungauged catchments where there are also many planned projects aimed at utilization of water resources including development of existing hydropower potential. This situation makes runoff prediction at locations with lack of data and ungauged locations where small hydropower plants, reservoirs, etc. are planned an increasingly significant challenge and concern in the country. Flow duration curves have many practical applications in hydrology and integrated water resources management. Estimation of flood duration curve (FDC) at ungauged locations is essential, particularly for hydropower feasibility studies and selection of the installed capacities. In this study, we test and compare the performances of two methods for estimating FDCs in the Western Black Sea catchment, Turkey: (i) FDC based on Map Correlation Method (MCM) flow estimates. MCM is a recently proposed method (Archfield and Vogel, 2010) which uses geospatial information to estimate flow. Flow measurements of stream gauging stations nearby the ungauged location are the only data requirement for this method. This fact makes MCM very attractive for flow estimation in Turkey, (ii) Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a data-driven method which is used to relate FDC to a number of variables representing catchment and climate characteristics. However, it`s ease of implementation makes it very useful for practical purposes. Both methods use easily collectable data and are computationally efficient. Comparison of the results is realized based on two different measures: the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value. Ref: Archfield, S. A., and R. M. Vogel (2010), Map correlation method: Selection of a reference streamgage to estimate daily streamflow at ungaged catchments, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10513, doi:10.1029/2009WR008481.

  9. The impact of lake and reservoir parameterization on global streamflow simulation.

    PubMed

    Zajac, Zuzanna; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Salamon, Peter; Burek, Peter; Hirpa, Feyera A; Beck, Hylke

    2017-05-01

    Lakes and reservoirs affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow, and are therefore essential hydrological model components, especially in the context of global flood forecasting. However, the parameterization of lake and reservoir routines on a global scale is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of information on lake hydrographic characteristics and reservoir operating rules. In this study we estimated the effect of lakes and reservoirs on global daily streamflow simulations of a spatially-distributed LISFLOOD hydrological model. We applied state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for selected catchments to examine the effect of uncertain lake and reservoir parameterization on model performance. Streamflow observations from 390 catchments around the globe and multiple performance measures were used to assess model performance. Results indicate a considerable geographical variability in the lake and reservoir effects on the streamflow simulation. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics improved for 65% and 38% of catchments respectively, with median skill score values of 0.16 and 0.2 while scores deteriorated for 28% and 52% of the catchments, with median values -0.09 and -0.16, respectively. The effect of reservoirs on extreme high flows was substantial and widespread in the global domain, while the effect of lakes was spatially limited to a few catchments. As indicated by global sensitivity analysis, parameter uncertainty substantially affected uncertainty of model performance. Reservoir parameters often contributed to this uncertainty, although the effect varied widely among catchments. The effect of reservoir parameters on model performance diminished with distance downstream of reservoirs in favor of other parameters, notably groundwater-related parameters and channel Manning's roughness coefficient. This study underscores the importance of accounting for lakes and, especially, reservoirs and

  10. Estimating catchment-scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skaugen, Thomas; Mengistu, Zelalem

    2016-12-01

    In this study, we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of catchment-scale storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff. The parameters are hence estimated prior to model calibration against runoff. The new storage routine is implemented in the parameter parsimonious distance distribution dynamics (DDD) model and has been tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevation and landscape type. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures (DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage) were compared. Little loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion of 0.73 was obtained using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.75 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion was 0.80 and 0.81 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recession characteristics was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine. The parameters of the proposed storage routine are found to be significantly correlated to catchment characteristics, which is potentially useful for predictions in ungauged basins.

  11. Estimating catchment scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skaugen, T.; Mengistu, Z.

    2015-10-01

    In this study we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady-state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff and hence estimated prior to calibration. Key principles guiding the evaluation of the new subsurface storage routine have been (a) to minimize the number of parameters to be estimated through the, often arbitrary fitting to optimize runoff predictions (calibration) and (b) maximize the range of testing conditions (i.e. large-sample hydrology). The new storage routine has been implemented in the already parameter parsimonious Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model and tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevations and landscape types. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures; DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage were compared. No loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency criterion of 0.68 was found using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.66 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta Efficiency criterion was 0.69 and 0.70 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recessions was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine.

  12. Parameter sensitivity analysis and optimization for a satellite-based evapotranspiration model across multiple sites using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and flux data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jinzhu; Zhu, Gaofeng; Ma, Ting; Han, Tuo; Feng, Li Li

    2017-01-01

    Global and regional estimates of daily evapotranspiration are essential to our understanding of the hydrologic cycle and climate change. In this study, we selected the radiation-based Priestly-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model and assessed it at a daily time scale by using 44 flux towers. These towers distributed in a wide range of ecological systems: croplands, deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands, mixed forests, savannas, and shrublands. A regional land surface evapotranspiration model with a relatively simple structure, the PT-JPL model largely uses ecophysiologically-based formulation and parameters to relate potential evapotranspiration to actual evapotranspiration. The results using the original model indicate that the model always overestimates evapotranspiration in arid regions. This likely results from the misrepresentation of water limitation and energy partition in the model. By analyzing physiological processes and determining the sensitive parameters, we identified a series of parameter sets that can increase model performance. The model with optimized parameters showed better performance (R2 = 0.2-0.87; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.1-0.87) at each site than the original model (R2 = 0.19-0.87; NSE = -12.14-0.85). The results of the optimization indicated that the parameter β (water control of soil evaporation) was much lower in arid regions than in relatively humid regions. Furthermore, the optimized value of parameter m1 (plant control of canopy transpiration) was mostly between 1 to 1.3, slightly lower than the original value. Also, the optimized parameter Topt correlated well to the actual environmental temperature at each site. We suggest that using optimized parameters with the PT-JPL model could provide an efficient way to improve the model performance.

  13. Waveguide-loaded silica fibers for coupling to high-index micro-resonators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latawiec, P.; Burek, M. J.; Venkataraman, V.; Lončar, M.

    2016-01-01

    Tapered silica fibers are often used to rapidly probe the optical properties of micro-resonators. However, their low refractive index precludes phase-matching when coupling to high-index micro-resonators, reducing efficiency. Here, we demonstrate efficient optical coupling from tapered fibers to high-index micro-resonators by loading the fibers with an ancillary adiabatic waveguide-coupler fabricated via angled-etching. We demonstrate greatly enhanced coupling to a silicon multimode micro-resonator when compared to coupling via the bare fiber only. Signatures of resonator optical bistability are observed at high powers. This scheme can be applied to resonators of any size and material, increasing the functional scope of fiber coupling.

  14. Transportation Energy Efficiency Program (TEEP) Report Abstracts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-04-15

    This bibliography summarizes the published research accomplished for the Department of Transportation's Transportation Energy Efficiency Program and its predecessor, the Automotive Energy Efficiency Program. The reports are indexed by corporate autho...

  15. Earthworms and tree roots: A model study of the effect of preferential flow paths on runoff generation and groundwater recharge in steep, saprolitic, tropical lowland catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Yanyan; Ogden, Fred L.; Zhu, Jianting

    2017-07-01

    Preferential flow paths (PFPs) affect the hydrological response of humid tropical catchments but have not received sufficient attention. We consider PFPs created by tree roots and earthworms in a near-surface soil layer in steep, humid, tropical lowland catchments and hypothesize that observed hydrological behaviors can be better captured by reasonably considering PFPs in this layer. We test this hypothesis by evaluating the performance of four different physically based distributed model structures without and with PFPs in different configurations. Model structures are tested both quantitatively and qualitatively using hydrological, geophysical, and geochemical data both from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Agua Salud Project experimental catchment(s) in Central Panama and other sources in the literature. The performance of different model structures is evaluated using runoff Volume Error and three Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures against observed total runoff, stormflows, and base flows along with visual comparison of simulated and observed hydrographs. Two of the four proposed model structures which include both lateral and vertical PFPs are plausible, but the one with explicit simulation of PFPs performs the best. A small number of vertical PFPs that fully extend below the root zone allow the model to reasonably simulate deep groundwater recharge, which plays a crucial role in base flow generation. Results also show that the shallow lateral PFPs are the main contributor to the observed high flow characteristics. Their number and size distribution are found to be more important than the depth distribution. Our model results are corroborated by geochemical and geophysical observations.

  16. Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

  17. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  18. Impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration patterns on downscaling soil moisture in regions with large topographic relief

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowley, Garret S.; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Green, Timothy R.; Seyfried, Mark S.; Jones, Andrew S.; Grazaitis, Peter J.

    2017-02-01

    Soil moisture can be estimated at coarse resolutions (>1 km) using satellite remote sensing, but that resolution is poorly suited for many applications. The Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT+VS) model downscales coarse-resolution soil moisture using fine-resolution topographic, vegetation, and soil data to produce fine-resolution (10-30 m) estimates of soil moisture. The EMT+VS model performs well at catchments with low topographic relief (≤124 m), but it has not been applied to regions with larger ranges of elevation. Large relief can produce substantial variations in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which might affect the fine-resolution patterns of soil moisture. In this research, simple methods to downscale temporal average precipitation and PET are developed and included in the EMT+VS model, and the effects of spatial variations in these variables on the surface soil moisture estimates are investigated. The methods are tested against ground truth data at the 239 km2 Reynolds Creek watershed in southern Idaho, which has 1145 m of relief. The precipitation and PET downscaling methods are able to capture the main features in the spatial patterns of both variables. The space-time Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency of the fine-resolution soil moisture estimates improve from 0.33 to 0.36 and 0.41 when the precipitation and PET downscaling methods are included, respectively. PET downscaling provides a larger improvement in the soil moisture estimates than precipitation downscaling likely because the PET pattern is more persistent through time, and thus more predictable, than the precipitation pattern.

  19. Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

  20. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

    2018-01-01

    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  1. Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Mou Leong; Ibrahim, Ab Latif; Yusop, Zulkifli; Chua, Vivien P.; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2017-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin in north-eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Thirty-six downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the periods of 2015-2044 and 2045-2074 were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Differences of these scenarios were calculated by comparing to the 1975-2004 baseline period. Overall, the SWAT model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.75 and 0.63 for calibration and validation, respectively. Based on the ensemble of five GCMs, the annual rainfall and maximum temperature are projected to increase by 1.2-8.7% and 0.6-2.1 °C, respectively. This corresponds to the increases in the annual streamflow (14.6-27.2%), evapotranspiration (0.3-2.7%), surface runoff (46.8-90.2%) and water yield (14.2-26.5%) components. The study shows an increase of monthly rainfall during the wet season, and decrease during the dry season. Therefore, the monthly streamflow and surface runoff are likely to increase significantly in November, December and January. In addition, slight decreases in the monthly water yield are found between June and October (1.9-8.9%) during the 2015-2044 period. These findings could act as a scientific reference to develop better climate adaptation strategies.

  2. Analysis of the hydrological response of a distributed physically-based model using post-assimilation (EnKF) diagnostics of streamflow and in situ soil moisture observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert; Paniconi, Claudio

    2014-06-01

    Data assimilation techniques not only enhance model simulations and forecast, they also provide the opportunity to obtain a diagnostic of both the model and observations used in the assimilation process. In this research, an ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate streamflow observations at a basin outlet and at interior locations, as well as soil moisture at two different depths (15 and 45 cm). The simulation model is the distributed physically-based hydrological model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) and the study site is the Des Anglais watershed, a 690 km2 river basin located in southern Quebec, Canada. Use of Latin hypercube sampling instead of a conventional Monte Carlo method to generate the ensemble reduced the size of the ensemble, and therefore the calculation time. Different post-assimilation diagnostics, based on innovations (observation minus background), analysis residuals (observation minus analysis), and analysis increments (analysis minus background), were used to evaluate assimilation optimality. An important issue in data assimilation is the estimation of error covariance matrices. These diagnostics were also used in a calibration exercise to determine the standard deviation of model parameters, forcing data, and observations that led to optimal assimilations. The analysis of innovations showed a lag between the model forecast and the observation during rainfall events. Assimilation of streamflow observations corrected this discrepancy. Assimilation of outlet streamflow observations improved the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) between the model forecast (one day) and the observation at both outlet and interior point locations, owing to the structure of the state vector used. However, assimilation of streamflow observations systematically increased the simulated soil moisture values.

  3. Application of Water Evaluation and Planning Model for Integrated Water Resources Management: Case Study of Langat River Basin, Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leong, W. K.; Lai, S. H.

    2017-06-01

    Due to the effects of climate change and the increasing demand on water, sustainable development in term of water resources management has become a major challenge. In this context, the application of simulation models is useful to duel with the uncertainty and complexity of water system by providing stakeholders with the best solution. This paper outlines an integrated management planning network is developed based on Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) to evaluate current and future water management system of Langat River Basin, Malaysia under various scenarios. The WEAP model is known as an integrated decision support system investigate major stresses on demand and supply in terms of water availability in catchment scale. In fact, WEAP is applicable to simulate complex systems including various sectors within a single catchment or transboundary river system. To construct the model, by taking account of the Langat catchment and the corresponding demand points, we defined the hydrological model into 10 sub-hydrological catchments and 17 demand points included the export of treated water to the major cities outside the catchment. The model is calibrated and verified by several quantitative statistics (coefficient of determination, R2; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE and Percent bias, PBIAS). The trend of supply and demand in the catchment is evaluated under three scenarios to 2050, 1: Population growth rate, 2: Demand side management (DSM) and 3: Combination of DSM and reduce non-revenue water (NRW). Results show that by reducing NRW and proper DSM, unmet demand able to reduce significantly.

  4. Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

    2014-11-01

    In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

  5. Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: I. Best Professional Judgment Parameterization.

    PubMed

    Baffaut, Claire; Nelson, Nathan O; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, G M M M Anomaa; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

    2017-11-01

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is capable of estimating edge-of-field water, nutrient, and sediment transport and is used to assess the environmental impacts of management practices. The current practice is to fully calibrate the model for each site simulation, a task that requires resources and data not always available. The objective of this study was to compare model performance for flow, sediment, and phosphorus transport under two parameterization schemes: a best professional judgment (BPJ) parameterization based on readily available data and a fully calibrated parameterization based on site-specific soil, weather, event flow, and water quality data. The analysis was conducted using 12 datasets at four locations representing poorly drained soils and row-crop production under different tillage systems. Model performance was based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination () and the regression slope between simulated and measured annualized loads across all site years. Although the BPJ model performance for flow was acceptable (NSE = 0.7) at the annual time step, calibration improved it (NSE = 0.9). Acceptable simulation of sediment and total phosphorus transport (NSE = 0.5 and 0.9, respectively) was obtained only after full calibration at each site. Given the unacceptable performance of the BPJ approach, uncalibrated use of APEX for planning or management purposes may be misleading. Model calibration with water quality data prior to using APEX for simulating sediment and total phosphorus loss is essential. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  6. Estimation of surface water storage in the Congo Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Loughlin, F.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Beighley, E.; Bates, P. D.

    2015-12-01

    For many large river basins, especially in Africa, the lack of access to in-situ measurements, and the large areas involved, make modelling of water storage and runoff difficult. However, remote sensing datasets are useful alternative sources of information, which overcome these issues. In this study, we focus on the Congo Basin and, in particular, the cuvette central. Despite being the second largest river basin on earth and containing a large percentage of the world's tropical wetlands and forest, little is known about this basin's hydrology. Combining discharge estimates from in-situ measurements and outputs from a hydrological model, we build the first large-scale hydrodynamic model for this region to estimate the volume of water stored in the corresponding floodplains and to investigate how important these floodplains are to the behaviour of the overall system. This hydrodynamic model covers an area over 1.6 million square kilometres and 13 thousand kilometres of rivers and is calibrated to water surface heights at 33 virtual gauging stations obtained from ESA's Envisat satellite. Our results show that the use of different sources of discharge estimations and calibration via Envisat observations can produce accurate water levels and downstream discharges. Our model produced un-biased (bias =-0.08 m), sub-metre Root Mean Square Error (RMSE =0.862 m) with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 80% (NSE =0.81). The spatial-temporal variations in our simulated inundated areas are consistent with the pattern obtained from satellites. Overall, we find a high correlation coefficient (R =0.88) between our modelled inundated areas and those estimated from satellites.

  7. StreamFlow 1.0: an extension to the spatially distributed snow model Alpine3D for hydrological modelling and deterministic stream temperature prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallice, Aurélien; Bavay, Mathias; Brauchli, Tristan; Comola, Francesco; Lehning, Michael; Huwald, Hendrik

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to strongly impact the hydrological and thermal regimes of Alpine rivers within the coming decades. In this context, the development of hydrological models accounting for the specific dynamics of Alpine catchments appears as one of the promising approaches to reduce our uncertainty of future mountain hydrology. This paper describes the improvements brought to StreamFlow, an existing model for hydrological and stream temperature prediction built as an external extension to the physically based snow model Alpine3D. StreamFlow's source code has been entirely written anew, taking advantage of object-oriented programming to significantly improve its structure and ease the implementation of future developments. The source code is now publicly available online, along with a complete documentation. A special emphasis has been put on modularity during the re-implementation of StreamFlow, so that many model aspects can be represented using different alternatives. For example, several options are now available to model the advection of water within the stream. This allows for an easy and fast comparison between different approaches and helps in defining more reliable uncertainty estimates of the model forecasts. In particular, a case study in a Swiss Alpine catchment reveals that the stream temperature predictions are particularly sensitive to the approach used to model the temperature of subsurface flow, a fact which has been poorly reported in the literature to date. Based on the case study, StreamFlow is shown to reproduce hourly mean discharge with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 and hourly mean temperature with a NSE of 0.78.

  8. Comparison of model performance and simulated water balance using NASIM and SWAT for the Wupper River Basin, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorza, Paula; Nottebohm, Martin; Scheibel, Marc; aus der Beek, Tim

    2017-04-01

    Under the framework of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), climate change impacts on the water cycle in the Wupper catchment area are being studied. With this purpose, a set of hydrological models in NASIM and SWAT have been set up, calibrated, and validated for past conditions using available data. NASIM is a physically-based, lumped, hydrological model based on the water balance equation. For the upper part of the Dhünn catchment area - Wupper River's main tributary - a SWAT model was also implemented. Observed and simulated discharge by NASIM and SWAT for the drainage area upstream of Neumühle hydrometric station (close to Große Dhünn reservoir's inlet) are compared. Comparison of simulated water balance for several hydrological years between the two models is also carried out. While NASIM offers high level of detail for modelling of complex urban areas and the possibility of entering precipitation time series at fine temporal resolution (e.g. minutely data), SWAT enables to study long-term impacts offering a huge variety of input and output variables including different soil properties, vegetation and land management practices. Beside runoff, also sediment and nutrient transport can be simulated. For most calculations, SWAT operates on a daily time step. The objective of this and future work is to determine catchment responses on different meteorological events and to study parameter sensitivity of stationary inputs such as soil parameters, vegetation or land use. Model performance is assessed with different statistical metrics (relative volume error, coefficient of determination, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).

  9. Soil salinisation and irrigation management of date palms in a Saharan environment.

    PubMed

    Haj-Amor, Zied; Ibrahimi, Mohamed-Khaled; Feki, Nissma; Lhomme, Jean-Paul; Bouri, Salem

    2016-08-01

    The continuance of agricultural production in regions of the world with chronic water shortages depends upon understanding how soil salinity is impacted by irrigation practises such as water salinity, irrigation frequency and amount of irrigation. A two-year field study was conducted in a Saharan oasis of Tunisia (Lazala Oasis) to determine how the soil electrical conductivity was affected by irrigation of date palms with high saline water. The study area lacked a saline shallow water table. Field results indicate that, under current irrigation practises, soil electrical conductivity can build up to levels which exceed the salt tolerance of date palm trees. The effects of irrigation practises on the soil electrical conductivity were also evaluated using model simulations (HYDRUS-1D) of various irrigation regimes with different frequencies, different amounts of added water and different water salinities. The comparison between the simulated and observed results demonstrated that the model gave an acceptable estimation of water and salt dynamics in the soil profile, as indicated by the small values of root mean square error (RMSE) and the high values of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE). The simulations demonstrated that, under field conditions without saline shallow groundwater, saline irrigation water can be used to maintain soil electrical conductivity and soil water content at safe levels (soil electrical conductivity <4 dS m(-1) and soil water content >0.04 cm(3) cm(-3)) if frequent irrigations with small amounts of water (90 % of the evapotranspiration requirements) were applied throughout the year.

  10. Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samanta, Suman; Patra, Pulak Kumar; Banerjee, Saon; Narsimhaiah, Lakshmi; Sarath Chandran, M. A.; Vijaya Kumar, P.; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjib

    2018-06-01

    In developing countries like India, global solar radiation (GSR) is measured at very few locations due to non-availability of radiation measuring instruments. To overcome the inadequacy of GSR measurements, scientists developed many empirical models to estimate location-wise GSR. In the present study, three simple forms of Angstrom equation [Angstrom-Prescott (A-P), Ogelman, and Bahel] were used to estimate GSR at six geographically and climatologically different locations across India with an objective to find out a set of common constants usable for whole country. Results showed that GSR values varied from 9.86 to 24.85 MJ m-2 day-1 for different stations. It was also observed that A-P model showed smaller errors than Ogelman and Bahel models. All the models well estimated GSR, as the 1:1 line between measured and estimated values showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ≥ 0.81 for all locations. Measured data of GSR pooled over six selected locations was analyzed to obtain a new set of constants for A-P equation which can be applicable throughout the country. The set of constants (a = 0.29 and b = 0.40) was named as "One India One Constant (OIOC)," and the model was named as "MOIOC." Furthermore, the developed constants are validated statistically for another six locations of India and produce close estimation. High R 2 values (≥ 76%) along with low mean bias error (MBE) ranging from - 0.64 to 0.05 MJ m-2 day-1 revealed that the new constants are able to predict GSR with lesser percentage of error.

  11. Improvement of suspended sediment concentration estimation for the Yarlung Zangbo river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, C.; Zhang, F.

    2017-12-01

    Suspended sediment load of a river represents integrated results of soil erosion, ecosystem variation and landform change occurring within basin over a specified period. Accurate estimation of suspended sediment concentration is important for calculating suspended sediment load, therefore is helpful for evaluating the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on earth system processes under the background of global climate change. However, long-term observation of suspended sediment concentration usually very difficult in harsh condition areas e.g. rivers on the Tibet Plateau. This study proposed two sediment rating curve subdivision methods, the flood rank method and suspended sediment concentration stages method, to improve the estimations of daily suspended sediment concentration of the Yarlung Zangbo river during 2007 to 2009. The flood rank method, hypothesized that the higher water flow with larger erosive power can mobilize sediment sources not available during lower flows, suitable for application where sediments were mainly transported by first few flood events. The suspended sediment concentration stages method, assumed that precipitation is the dominating driving force of sediment erosion and transport processes during the flooding periods, suitable for application where soil erosion was closely related to precipitation events. Compared to traditional sediment rating curve and subdivision methods, results showed that the proposed methods can improve suspended sediment concentration and subsequent suspended sediment load estimations in the middle reach of the Yarlung Zangbo river with higher coefficients of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and yielded smaller bias (BIAS) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE). This study can provide guidelines for regional ecological and environmental management.

  12. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor <0.56 and R 2>0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18

  13. Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

    2009-03-01

    We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

  14. Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

    2018-04-01

    The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.

  15. Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

  16. Determination of the optimal training principle and input variables in artificial neural network model for the biweekly chlorophyll-a prediction: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang

    2015-01-01

    Predicting the levels of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a vital component of water quality management, which ensures that urban drinking water is safe from harmful algal blooms. This study developed a model to predict Chl-a levels in the Yuqiao Reservoir (Tianjin, China) biweekly using water quality and meteorological data from 1999-2012. First, six artificial neural networks (ANNs) and two non-ANN methods (principal component analysis and the support vector regression model) were compared to determine the appropriate training principle. Subsequently, three predictors with different input variables were developed to examine the feasibility of incorporating meteorological factors into Chl-a prediction, which usually only uses water quality data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine how the Chl-a predictor reacts to changes in input variables. The results were as follows: first, ANN is a powerful predictive alternative to the traditional modeling techniques used for Chl-a prediction. The back program (BP) model yields slightly better results than all other ANNs, with the normalized mean square error (NMSE), the correlation coefficient (Corr), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) at 0.003 mg/l, 0.880 and 0.754, respectively, in the testing period. Second, the incorporation of meteorological data greatly improved Chl-a prediction compared to models solely using water quality factors or meteorological data; the correlation coefficient increased from 0.574-0.686 to 0.880 when meteorological data were included. Finally, the Chl-a predictor is more sensitive to air pressure and pH compared to other water quality and meteorological variables.

  17. The Nurses' Well-Being Index and Factors Influencing This Index among Nurses in Central China: A Cross-Sectional Study.

    PubMed

    Meng, Runtang; Luo, Yi; Liu, Bing; Hu, Ying; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-01-01

    A discussion and analysis of factors that contribute to nurses' happiness index can be useful in developing effective interventions to improve nurses' enthusiasm, sense of honor and pride and to improve the efficiency and quality of medical services. In this study, 206 registered nurses at the 2011 annual encounter for 12 Hanchuan hospitals completed a questionnaire survey that covered three aspects of the well-being index and thus served as a comprehensive well-being and general information tool. Based on their index score, the nurses' overall happiness level was moderate. The dimensions of the happiness index are listed in descending order of their contribution to the nurses' comprehensive happiness levels: health concerns, friendly relationships, self-worth, altruism, vitality, positive emotions, personality development, life satisfaction and negative emotions. Four variables (positive emotion, life satisfaction, negative emotions, and friendly relationships) jointly explained 47.80% of the total variance of the happiness index; positive emotions had the greatest impact on the happiness index. Appropriate nursing interventions can improve nurses' happiness index scores, thereby increasing nurses' motivation and promoting the development of their nursing practice.

  18. Relationship between obstructive sleep apnea and liver abnormalities in morbidly obese patients: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Jouët, Pauline; Sabaté, Jean-Marc; Maillard, Dominique; Msika, Simon; Mechler, Charlotte; Ledoux, Séverine; Harnois, Florence; Coffin, Benoit

    2007-04-01

    Morbid obesity is a risk factor of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) could also be an independent risk factor for elevated liver enzymes and NASH. The relationships between liver injuries and OSA in morbidly obese patients requiring bariatric surgery were studied prospectively. Every consecutive morbidly obese patient (BMI > or =40 kg/m2 or > or =35 kg/m2 with severe comorbidities) requiring bariatric surgery was included between January 2003 and October 2004. Polygraphic recording, serum aminotransferases (ALT, AST), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and liver biopsy were systematically performed. OSA was present when the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was >10/h. 62 patients (54 F; age 38.5 +/- 11.0 (SD) yrs; BMI 47.8 +/- 8.4 kg/m2) were included. Liver enzymes (AST, ALT or GGT) were increased in 46.6%. NASH was present in 34.4% and OSA in 84.7%. Patients with OSA were significantly older (P = 0.015) and had a higher BMI (P = 0.003). In multivariate analysis, risk factors for elevated liver enzymes were the presence of OSA and male sex. The presence of NASH was similar in patients with or without OSA (32.7% vs 44.4% of patients, P = 0.76). In this cohort of morbidly obese patients requiring bariatric surgery, one-third of patients had NASH, a prevalence similar to previous studies. OSA was found to be a risk factor for elevated liver enzymes but not for NASH.

  19. Efficient Forest Fire Detection Index for Application in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs)

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Henry; Eckert, Martina; Meneses, Juan; Martínez, José-Fernán

    2016-01-01

    This article proposes a novel method for detecting forest fires, through the use of a new color index, called the Forest Fire Detection Index (FFDI), developed by the authors. The index is based on methods for vegetation classification and has been adapted to detect the tonalities of flames and smoke; the latter could be included adaptively into the Regions of Interest (RoIs) with the help of a variable factor. Multiple tests have been performed upon database imagery and present promising results: a detection precision of 96.82% has been achieved for image sizes of 960 × 540 pixels at a processing time of 0.0447 seconds. This achievement would lead to a performance of 22 f/s, for smaller images, while up to 54 f/s could be reached by maintaining a similar detection precision. Additional tests have been performed on fires in their early stages, achieving a precision rate of p = 96.62%. The method could be used in real-time in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), with the aim of monitoring a wider area than through fixed surveillance systems. Thus, it would result in more cost-effective outcomes than conventional systems implemented in helicopters or satellites. UASs could also reach inaccessible locations without jeopardizing people’s safety. On-going work includes implementation into a commercially available drone. PMID:27322264

  20. Efficient Forest Fire Detection Index for Application in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs).

    PubMed

    Cruz, Henry; Eckert, Martina; Meneses, Juan; Martínez, José-Fernán

    2016-06-16

    This article proposes a novel method for detecting forest fires, through the use of a new color index, called the Forest Fire Detection Index (FFDI), developed by the authors. The index is based on methods for vegetation classification and has been adapted to detect the tonalities of flames and smoke; the latter could be included adaptively into the Regions of Interest (RoIs) with the help of a variable factor. Multiple tests have been performed upon database imagery and present promising results: a detection precision of 96.82% has been achieved for image sizes of 960 × 540 pixels at a processing time of 0.0447 seconds. This achievement would lead to a performance of 22 f/s, for smaller images, while up to 54 f/s could be reached by maintaining a similar detection precision. Additional tests have been performed on fires in their early stages, achieving a precision rate of p = 96.62%. The method could be used in real-time in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), with the aim of monitoring a wider area than through fixed surveillance systems. Thus, it would result in more cost-effective outcomes than conventional systems implemented in helicopters or satellites. UASs could also reach inaccessible locations without jeopardizing people's safety. On-going work includes implementation into a commercially available drone.

  1. Content-Aware DataGuide with Incremental Index Update using Frequently Used Paths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A. K.; Duhan, Neelam; Khattar, Priyanka

    2010-11-01

    Size of the WWW is increasing day by day. Due to the absence of structured data on the Web, it becomes very difficult for information retrieval tools to fully utilize the Web information. As a solution to this problem, XML pages come into play, which provide structural information to the users to some extent. Without efficient indexes, query processing can be quite inefficient due to an exhaustive traversal on XML data. In this paper an improved content-centric approach of Content-Aware DataGuide, which is an indexing technique for XML databases, is being proposed that uses frequently used paths from historical query logs to improve query performance. The index can be updated incrementally according to the changes in query workload and thus, the overhead of reconstruction can be minimized. Frequently used paths are extracted using any Sequential Pattern mining algorithm on subsequent queries in the query workload. After this, the data structures are incrementally updated. This indexing technique proves to be efficient as partial matching queries can be executed efficiently and users can now get the more relevant documents in results.

  2. An index-based algorithm for fast on-line query processing of latent semantic analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mingxi; Li, Pohan; Wang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is widely used for finding the documents whose semantic is similar to the query of keywords. Although LSA yield promising similar results, the existing LSA algorithms involve lots of unnecessary operations in similarity computation and candidate check during on-line query processing, which is expensive in terms of time cost and cannot efficiently response the query request especially when the dataset becomes large. In this paper, we study the efficiency problem of on-line query processing for LSA towards efficiently searching the similar documents to a given query. We rewrite the similarity equation of LSA combined with an intermediate value called partial similarity that is stored in a designed index called partial index. For reducing the searching space, we give an approximate form of similarity equation, and then develop an efficient algorithm for building partial index, which skips the partial similarities lower than a given threshold θ. Based on partial index, we develop an efficient algorithm called ILSA for supporting fast on-line query processing. The given query is transformed into a pseudo document vector, and the similarities between query and candidate documents are computed by accumulating the partial similarities obtained from the index nodes corresponds to non-zero entries in the pseudo document vector. Compared to the LSA algorithm, ILSA reduces the time cost of on-line query processing by pruning the candidate documents that are not promising and skipping the operations that make little contribution to similarity scores. Extensive experiments through comparison with LSA have been done, which demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

  3. Potential of vetiver (vetiveria zizanioides (L.) Nash) for phytoremediation of petroleum hydrocarbon-contaminated soils in Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Regine; Merkl, Nicole; Schultze-Kraft, Rainer; Infante, Carmen; Broll, Gabriele

    2006-01-01

    Venezuela is one of the largest oil producers in the world. For the rehabilitation of oil-contaminated sites, phytoremediation represents a promising technology whereby plants are used to enhance biodegradation processes in soil. A greenhouse study was conducted to determine the tolerance of vetiver (Vetiveria zizanioides (L.) Nash) to a Venezuelan heavy crude oil in soil. Additionally, the plant's potential for stimulating the biodegradation processes of petroleum hydrocarbons was tested under the application of two fertilizer levels. In the presence of contaminants, biomass and plant height were significantly reduced. As for fertilization, the lower fertilizer level led to higher biomass production. The specific root surface area was reduced under the effects of petroleum. However, vetiver was found to tolerate crude-oil contamination in a concentration of 5% (w/w). Concerning total oil and grease content in soil, no significant decrease under the influence of vetiver was detected when compared to the unplanted control. Thus, there was no evidence of vetiver enhancing the biodegradation of crude oil in soil under the conditions of this trial. However, uses of vetiver grass in relation to petroleum-contaminated soils are promising for amelioration of slightly polluted sites, to allow other species to get established and for erosion control.

  4. Interactions of a PPARGC1A Variant and a PNPLA3 Variant Affect Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in Severely Obese Taiwanese Patients.

    PubMed

    Tai, Chi-Ming; Huang, Chih-Kun; Tu, Hung-Pin; Hwang, Jau-Chung; Yeh, Ming-Lun; Huang, Chung-Feng; Huang, Jee-Fu; Dai, Chia-Yen; Chuang, Wan-Long; Yu, Ming-Lung

    2016-03-01

    The patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) variant is associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, the role of genetic variations of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator-1-alpha gene (PPARGC1A) and glucokinase regulatory (GCKR) gene on NASH in obese patients remains unclear. We studied the effects and interaction of these genetic polymorphisms on NASH in severely obese Taiwanese patients.The genotypes of PPARGC1A rs8192678, PNPLA3 rs738409, and GCKR rs780094 were determined in 177 severely obese patients who underwent bariatric surgery. NASH was evaluated by liver histopathology.Of 177 patients, 29 (16.4%), 57 (33.2%), and 91 (51.4%) were in the non-NAFLD, steatosis, and NASH groups, respectively. We found that the PPARGC1A and PNPLA3 variants, but not the GCKR variant, were associated with NASH. The PPARGC1A rs8192678 GA/AA genotype was associated with higher steatosis grade and presence of ballooning degeneration. The PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype was associated with higher severity in all histologic features except for fibrosis. In multivariate analysis, both the PPARGC1A rs8192678 GA/AA genotype (odds ratio [OR] 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-4.98; P = 0.031) and the PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype (OR 4.05; 95% CI 1.24-13.23; P = 0.021), and also body mass index were independent risk factors for NASH. Further, there was an additive effect of the PPARGC1A rs8192678 GA/AA genotype and the PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype on the presence of NASH (OR 6.83; 95% CI 1.61-29.01; P = 0.009).The PPARGC1A rs8192678 GA/AA genotype and the PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype had an additive effect on NASH in severely obese Taiwanese patients.

  5. Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) as a proxy of Light Use Efficiency (LUE) and transpiration in Mediterranean crop sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LE Dantec, V.; Chebbi, W.; Boulet, G.; Merlin, O.; Lili-Chabaane, Z.; Er Raki, S.; Ceschia, E.; Khabba, S.; Fanise, P.; Zawilski, B.; Simonneaux, V.; Jarlan, L.

    2016-12-01

    The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) is based on the short term reversible xanthophyll pigment changes accompanying plant stress and therefore of the associated photosynthetic activities. Strong relationships between PRI and Light Use Efficiency (LUE) were shown at leaf and canopy scales and over a wide range of species (Garbulsky et al., 2011). But very few previous works have explored the potential link with plant water status. In this study, we have first analyzed the link between PRI and LUE at canopy scale on two different crops in terms of canopy structure and crop management: olive grove (Tunisia) and wheat grown under different water regimes (irrigated or rainfed) and climate zones (France, Morocco). We have investigated the daily and seasonal dynamics of PRI; linking its variations to meteorological factors (global radiation and sun angle effects, soil water content, relative air humidity …) and plant processes. The highest correlations were mainly observed in clear skies conditions. We have found, whatever site, linear negative relationships between PRI and LUE using data acquired in midday (i.e. in solar zenithal angle condition). Linear link between PRI and sapflow measurements was also revealed. This correlation was obtained over periods characterized by a moderate soil water deficit, i.e. by when transpiration rate was mainly control by Vapor Pressure Deficit. We will then briefly presented alternative and complementary approaches to this index, to detect different level of water stress using thermal infrared emissions.

  6. The great contribution: Index Medicus, Index-Catalogue, and IndexCat

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Stephen J.; Gallagher, Patricia E.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The systematic indexing of medical literature by the Library of the Surgeon-General's Office (now the National Library of Medicine) has been called “America's greatest contribution to medical knowledge.” In the 1870s, the library launched two indexes: the Index Medicus and the Index-Catalogue of the Library of the Surgeon-General's Office. Index Medicus is better remembered today as the forerunner of MEDLINE, but Index Medicus began as the junior partner of what the library saw as its major publication, the Index-Catalogue. However, the Index-Catalogue had been largely overlooked by many medical librarians until 2004, when the National Library of Medicine released IndexCat, the online version of Index-Catalogue. Access to this huge amount of material raised new questions: What was the coverage of the Index-Catalogue? How did it compare and overlap with the Index Medicus? Method: Over 1,000 randomly generated Index Medicus citations were cross-referenced in IndexCat. Results: Inclusion, form, content, authority control, and subject headings were evaluated, revealing that the relationship between the two publications was neither simple nor static through time. In addition, the authors found interesting anomalies that shed light on how medical literature was selected and indexed in “America's greatest contribution to medical knowledge.” PMID:19404501

  7. A comprehensive numerical analysis of the hydraulic behavior of a permeable pavement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunetti, Giuseppe; Šimůnek, Jiří; Piro, Patrizia

    2016-09-01

    The increasing frequency of flooding events in urban catchments related to an increase in impervious surfaces highlights the inadequacy of traditional urban drainage systems. Low Impact Development (LID) techniques have proven to be a viable and effective alternative by reducing stormwater runoff and increasing the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban areas. However, the lack of adequate modeling tools represents a barrier in designing and constructing such systems. This paper investigates the suitability of a mechanistic model, HYDRUS-1D, to correctly describe the hydraulic behavior of permeable pavement installed at the University of Calabria. Two different scenarios of describing the hydraulic behavior of the permeable pavement system were analyzed: the first one uses a single-porosity model for all layers of the permeable pavement; the second one uses a dual-porosity model for the base and sub-base layers. Measured and modeled month-long hydrographs were compared using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) followed by a Monte Carlo filtering highlighted the influence of the wear layer on the hydraulic behavior of the pavement and identified the ranges of parameters generating behavioral solutions. Reduced ranges were then used in the calibration procedure conducted with the metaheuristic Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for the estimation of hydraulic parameters. The best fit value for the first scenario was NSE = 0.43; for the second scenario, it was NSE = 0.81, indicating that the dual-porosity approach is more appropriate for describing the variably-saturated flow in the base and sub-base layers. Estimated parameters were validated using an independent, month-long set of measurements, resulting in NSE values of 0.43 and 0.86 for the first and second scenarios, respectively. The improvement in correspondence between measured and modeled hydrographs confirmed the reliability of the

  8. Unsaturated hydraulic behaviour of a permeable pavement: Laboratory investigation and numerical analysis by using the HYDRUS-2D model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, Michele; Kodešová, Radka; Brunetti, Giuseppe; Nikodem, Antonín; Fér, Miroslav; Piro, Patrizia

    2017-11-01

    An adequate hydrological description of water flow in permeable pavement systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the construction materials. Although several modeling tools and many laboratory methods already exist in the literature to determine the hydraulic properties of soils, the importance of an accurate materials hydraulic description of the permeable pavement system, is increasingly recognized in the fields of urban hydrology. Thus, the aim of this study is to propose techniques/procedures on how to interpret water flow through the construction system using the HYDRUS model. The overall analysis includes experimental and mathematical procedures for model calibration and validation to assess the suitability of the HYDRUS-2D model to interpret the hydraulic behaviour of a lab-scale permeable pavement system. The system consists of three porous materials: a wear layer of porous concrete blocks, a bedding layers of fine gravel, and a sub-base layer of coarse gravel. The water regime in this system, i.e. outflow at the bottom and water contents in the middle of the bedding layer, was monitored during ten irrigation events of various durations and intensities. The hydraulic properties of porous concrete blocks and fine gravel described by the van Genuchten functions were measured using the clay tank and the multistep outflow experiments, respectively. Coarse gravel properties were set at literature values. In addition, some of the parameters (Ks of the concrete blocks layer, and α, n and Ks of the bedding layer) were optimized with the HYDRUS-2D model from water fluxes and soil water contents measured during irrigation events. The measured and modeled hydrographs were compared using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index (varied between 0.95 and 0.99) while the coefficient of determination R2 was used to assess the measured water content versus the modelled water content in the bedding layer (R2 = 0.81 ÷ 0.87) . The

  9. Semi-empirical model for retrieval of soil moisture using RISAT-1 C-Band SAR data over a sub-tropical semi-arid area of Rewari district, Haryana (India)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rawat, Kishan Singh; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Pradhan, Sanatan; Ray, Shibendu S.

    2018-03-01

    We have estimated soil moisture (SM) by using circular horizontal polarization backscattering coefficient (σ o_{RH}), differences of circular vertical and horizontal σ o (σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}) from FRS-1 data of Radar Imaging Satellite (RISAT-1) and surface roughness in terms of RMS height ({RMS}_{height}). We examined the performance of FRS-1 in retrieving SM under wheat crop at tillering stage. Results revealed that it is possible to develop a good semi-empirical model (SEM) to estimate SM of the upper soil layer using RISAT-1 SAR data rather than using existing empirical model based on only single parameter, i.e., σ o. Near surface SM measurements were related to σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH} derived using 5.35 GHz (C-band) image of RISAT-1 and {RMS}_{height}. The roughness component derived in terms of {RMS}_{height} showed a good positive correlation with σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH} (R2 = 0.65). By considering all the major influencing factors (σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}, and {RMS}_{height}), an SEM was developed where SM (volumetric) predicted values depend on σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}, and {RMS}_{height}. This SEM showed R2 of 0.87 and adjusted R2 of 0.85, multiple R=0.94 and with standard error of 0.05 at 95% confidence level. Validation of the SM derived from semi-empirical model with observed measurement ({SM}_{Observed}) showed root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.06, relative-RMSE (R-RMSE) = 0.18, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.04, normalized RMSE (NRMSE) = 0.17, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.91 ({≈ } 1), index of agreement (d) = 1, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.87, mean bias error (MBE) = 0.04, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 0.10, volume error (VE) = 0.15, variance of the distribution of differences ({S}d2) = 0.004. The developed SEM showed better performance in estimating SM than Topp empirical model which is based only on σ o. By using the developed SEM, top soil SM can be estimated with low mean absolute

  10. Enhancing USDA's Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

    2013-12-01

    The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB has often, as part of its operational process, used historical time series of surface-based precipitation observations to visually identify growing seasons with similar (analog) weather patterns as, and help estimate crop yields for, the current growing season. As part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment, a more rigorous, statistical method for identifying analog years was developed. This method, termed the analog index (AI), is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The AI was computed for five study areas and six growing seasons of data analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Previously reported results compared the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-retrieved precipitation data. Those results showed that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-retrieved precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation observations

  11. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  12. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

    2016-02-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

  13. Roles of ER, SRC-1, and CBP Phosphorylation in Estrogen Receptor-Regulated Gene Expression

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-06-01

    J. S. Sutcliff, P. Fang, R. J. Galjaard, Y. H. Jiang, C. S. localization of three repair genes: the xeroderma pigmentosum group C gene Benton, J. M...receptor-mediated scription efficiency, a central DNA-binding domain, which me- transcription; SRC-1, p300/CBP, and RAC3/ACTR/AIB1 pos - diates receptor

  14. An evaluation of alternative selection indexes for a non-linear profit trait approaching its economic optimum.

    PubMed

    Martin-Collado, D; Byrne, T J; Visser, B; Amer, P R

    2016-12-01

    This study used simulation to evaluate the performance of alternative selection index configurations in the context of a breeding programme where a trait with a non-linear economic value is approaching an economic optimum. The simulation used a simple population structure that approximately mimics selection in dual purpose sheep flocks in New Zealand (NZ). In the NZ dual purpose sheep population, number of lambs born is a genetic trait that is approaching an economic optimum, while genetically correlated growth traits have linear economic values and are not approaching any optimum. The predominant view among theoretical livestock geneticists is that the optimal approach to select for nonlinear profit traits is to use a linear selection index and to update it regularly. However, there are some nonlinear index approaches that have not been evaluated. This study assessed the efficiency of the following four alternative selection index approaches in terms of genetic progress relative to each other: (i) a linear index, (ii) a linear index updated regularly, (iii) a nonlinear (quadratic) index, and (iv) a NLF index (nonlinear index below the optimum and then flat). The NLF approach does not reward or penalize animals for additional genetic merit beyond the trait optimum. It was found to be at least comparable in efficiency to the approach of regularly updating the linear index with short (15 year) and long (30 year) time frames. The relative efficiency of this approach was slightly reduced when the current average value of the nonlinear trait was close to the optimum. Finally, practical issues of industry application of indexes are considered and some potential practical benefits of efficient deployment of a NLF index in highly heterogeneous industries (breeds, flocks and production environments) such as in the NZ dual purpose sheep population are discussed. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. Effects of ursodeoxycholic acid and/or low-calorie diet on steatohepatitis in rats with obesity and hyperlipidemia

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jian-Gao; Zhong, Lan; Tia, Li-Yan; Xu, Zheng-Jie; Li, Min-Sheng; Wang, Guo-Liang

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the effects of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) and/or low-calorie diet (LCD) on a rat model of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). METHODS: Fifty-five Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into five groups. The control group (n = 9) was fed with standard rat diet for 12 wk, NASH group (n = 10) was fed with high-fat diet consisted of normal diet, 10% lard oil and 2% cholesterol for 12 wk, UDCA group (n = 10) was fed with high-fat diet supplemented with UDCA at a dose of 25 mg/(kg·d) in drinking water for 12 wk, LCD group (n = 10) was fed with high-fat diet for 10 wk and then LCD for 2 wk, and UDCA+LCD group (n = 15) was fed with high-fat diet for 10 wk, followed by LCD+UDCA for 2 wk. At the end of the experiment, body weight, serum biochemical index, and hepatopathologic changes were examined. RESULTS: Compared with the control group, rats in the NASH group had significantly increased body weight, liver weight, and serum lipid and aminotransferase levels. All rats in the NASH group developed steatohepatitis, as determined by their liver histology. Compared with the NASH group, there were no significant changes in body weight, liver weight, blood biochemical index, the degree of hepatic steatosis, and histological activity index (HAI) score in the UDCA group; however, body and liver weights were significantly decreased, and the degree of steatosis was markedly improved in rats of both the LCD group and the UDCA+LCD group, but significant improvement with regard to serum lipid variables and hepatic inflammatory changes were seen only in rats of the UDCA+LCD group, and not in the LCD group. CONCLUSION: LCD might play a role in the treatment of obesity and hepatic steatosis in rats, but it exerts no significant effect on both serum lipid disorders and hepatic inflammatory changes. UDCA may enhance the therapeutic effects of LCD on steatohepatitis accompanied by obesity and hyperl-ipidemia. However, UDCA alone is not effective in the prevention of

  16. Association between body mass index and arsenic methylation efficiency in adult women from southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gomez-Rubio, Paulina; Roberge, Jason; Arendell, Leslie

    2011-04-15

    Human arsenic methylation efficiency has been consistently associated with arsenic-induced disease risk. Interindividual variation in arsenic methylation profiles is commonly observed in exposed populations, and great effort has been put into the study of potential determinants of this variability. Among the factors that have been evaluated, body mass index (BMI) has not been consistently associated with arsenic methylation efficiency; however, an underrepresentation of the upper BMI distribution was commonly observed in these studies. This study investigated potential factors contributing to variations in the metabolism of arsenic, with specific interest in the effect of BMI where more than half of themore » population was overweight or obese. We studied 624 adult women exposed to arsenic in drinking water from three independent populations. Multivariate regression models showed that higher BMI, arsenic (+ 3 oxidation state) methyltransferase (AS3MT) genetic variant 7388, and higher total urinary arsenic were significantly associated with low percentage of urinary arsenic excreted as monomethylarsonic acid (%uMMA) or high ratio between urinary dimethylarsinic acid and uMMA (uDMA/uMMA), while AS3MT genetic variant M287T was associated with high %uMMA and low uDMA/uMMA. The association between BMI and arsenic methylation efficiency was also evident in each of the three populations when studied separately. This strong association observed between high BMI and low %uMMA and high uDMA/uMMA underscores the importance of BMI as a potential arsenic-associated disease risk factor, and should be carefully considered in future studies associating human arsenic metabolism and toxicity.« less

  17. Construction of road network vulnerability evaluation index based on general travel cost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, Jun-qiang; Zhai, Jing; Li, Qian-wen; Zhao, Lin

    2018-03-01

    With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of her urban road network, the vulnerability of the urban road network has attracted increasing attention. Based on general travel cost, this work constructs the vulnerability evaluation index for the urban road network, and evaluates the vulnerability of the urban road network from the perspective of user generalised travel cost. Firstly, the generalised travel cost model is constructed based on vehicle cost, travel time, and traveller comfort. Then, the network efficiency index is selected as an evaluation index of vulnerability: the network efficiency index is composed of the traffic volume and the generalised travel cost, which are obtained from the equilibrium state of the network. In addition, the research analyses the influence of traffic capacity decrease, road section attribute value, and location of road section, on vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability index is used to analyse the local area network of Harbin and verify its applicability.

  18. The Nurses’ Well-Being Index and Factors Influencing This Index among Nurses in Central China: A Cross-Sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Bing; Hu, Ying; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-01-01

    Backgrounds/Objectives A discussion and analysis of factors that contribute to nurses’ happiness index can be useful in developing effective interventions to improve nurses’ enthusiasm, sense of honor and pride and to improve the efficiency and quality of medical services. Methods In this study, 206 registered nurses at the 2011 annual encounter for 12 Hanchuan hospitals completed a questionnaire survey that covered three aspects of the well-being index and thus served as a comprehensive well-being and general information tool. Results Based on their index score, the nurses’ overall happiness level was moderate. The dimensions of the happiness index are listed in descending order of their contribution to the nurses’ comprehensive happiness levels: health concerns, friendly relationships, self-worth, altruism, vitality, positive emotions, personality development, life satisfaction and negative emotions. Four variables (positive emotion, life satisfaction, negative emotions, and friendly relationships) jointly explained 47.80% of the total variance of the happiness index; positive emotions had the greatest impact on the happiness index. Conclusions Appropriate nursing interventions can improve nurses’ happiness index scores, thereby increasing nurses’ motivation and promoting the development of their nursing practice. PMID:26680594

  19. An index-based algorithm for fast on-line query processing of latent semantic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Pohan; Wang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is widely used for finding the documents whose semantic is similar to the query of keywords. Although LSA yield promising similar results, the existing LSA algorithms involve lots of unnecessary operations in similarity computation and candidate check during on-line query processing, which is expensive in terms of time cost and cannot efficiently response the query request especially when the dataset becomes large. In this paper, we study the efficiency problem of on-line query processing for LSA towards efficiently searching the similar documents to a given query. We rewrite the similarity equation of LSA combined with an intermediate value called partial similarity that is stored in a designed index called partial index. For reducing the searching space, we give an approximate form of similarity equation, and then develop an efficient algorithm for building partial index, which skips the partial similarities lower than a given threshold θ. Based on partial index, we develop an efficient algorithm called ILSA for supporting fast on-line query processing. The given query is transformed into a pseudo document vector, and the similarities between query and candidate documents are computed by accumulating the partial similarities obtained from the index nodes corresponds to non-zero entries in the pseudo document vector. Compared to the LSA algorithm, ILSA reduces the time cost of on-line query processing by pruning the candidate documents that are not promising and skipping the operations that make little contribution to similarity scores. Extensive experiments through comparison with LSA have been done, which demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm. PMID:28520747

  20. Index-antiguided planar waveguide lasers with large mode area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yuanye

    The on-going research and application interests with high power large-mode-area (LMA) waveguide lasers, especially in fiber geometry, at the beginning of this century drive the development of many novel waveguide designs. Index antiguiding, proposed by Siegman in 2003, is among one of them. The goal for index antiguiding is to introduce transversal modal loss with the relative simple waveguide design while maintain single transverse mode operation for good beam quality. The idea which is selectively support of fundamental mode is facilitated by involving certain level of signal regeneration inside the waveguide core. Since the modal loss is closed associated with waveguide design parameters such as core size and refractive index, the amount of gain inside the core provides active control of transverse modes inside index-antiguiding waveguide. For example, fundamental transverse mode inside such waveguide can be excited and propagate lossless when sufficient optical gain is provided. This often requires doped waveguide core and optical pumping at corresponding absorption band. However, the involvement of optical pumping also has its consequences. Phenomena such as thermal-optic effect and gain spatial hole-burning which are commonly found in bulk lasers request attention when scaling up output power with LMA index-antiguided waveguide amplifiers and resonators. In response, three key challenges of index-antiguided planar waveguide lasers, namely, guiding mechanism, power efficiency and transverse mode discrimination, are analyzed theoretically and experimentally in this dissertation. Experiments are based on two index-antiguided planar waveguide chips, whose core thickness are 220 microm and 400 microm respectively. The material of waveguide core is 1% Neodymium-doped Yttrium Aluminium garnet, or Nd:YAG while the cladding is made from Terbium Gallium garnet, or TGG. Due to the face pumping and limited pump power, it is found, with 220 microm-thick-core chip, that

  1. [Clinical, biochemical and hepatic histological findings in overweight and obese Peruvian adults: first national prospective study].

    PubMed

    Tagle A, Martín; Poggi M, Luis; Ferrari G, Natalia; Siu G, Hugo; Aguinaga, Melina; Luna C, Eduardo; Scavino L, Yolanda

    2008-01-01

    We conducted a prospective, descriptive study in the Clinica Anglo Americana, a prívate institution taking care of patients from a medium-high socioeconomic level in Lima. The goal of the study was to determine the frequency of histologic findings in liver biopsies performed by laparoscopy or percutaneously in patients with overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) or obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m2), and to evaluate the correlation with antropometric variables such as BMI, waist circumference, history of diabetes or hyperlypidemia, and biochemical variables like glycemia, lipid profile, aminotransferases and AST/ALT ratio. Between the years 2001 and 2006 50 patients were biopsied, 29 with overweight and 21 with obesity. Eighteen had simple steatosis and 22 had Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (44%), so 40 patients (80%) had some form of fatty liver. Five patients (10%) had cirrhosis confirmed by biopsy, and in all of them the finding of cirrhosis was completely incidental. Sixty four percent of patients with NASH were obese, like the 5 cirrhotics in our series. Herein we illustrate that in a relatively small sample of patients with obesity and overweight like ours, we found all the forms of the liver steatosis spectrum, from simple steatosis to cirrhosis, with a high frequency of NASH.

  2. Clinical features and treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease across the Asia Pacific region-the GO ASIA initiative.

    PubMed

    Chan, W-K; Treeprasertsuk, S; Imajo, K; Nakajima, A; Seki, Y; Kasama, K; Kakizaki, S; Fan, J-G; Song, M J; Yoon, S K; Dan, Y-Y; Lesmana, L; Ho, K-Y; Goh, K-L; Wong, V W-S

    2018-03-01

    The Gut and Obesity Asia (GO ASIA) workgroup was formed to study the relationships between obesity and gastrointestinal diseases in the Asia Pacific region. To study factors associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis, and medical treatment of biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. Retrospective study of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from centres in the GO ASIA Workgroup. Independent factors associated with NASH and with advanced fibrosis on binary logistic regression analyses in a training cohort were used for the development of their corresponding risk score, which were validated in a validation cohort. We included 1008 patients from nine centres across eight countries (NASH 62.9%, advanced fibrosis 17.2%). Independent predictors of NASH were body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 , diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, alanine aminotransferase ≥88 U/L and aspartate aminotransferase ≥38 U/L, constituting the Asia Pacific NASH risk score. A high score has a positive predictive value of 80%-83% for NASH. Independent predictors of advanced fibrosis were age ≥55 years, diabetes mellitus and platelet count <150 × 10 9 /L, constituting the Asia-Pacific NAFLD advanced fibrosis risk score. A low score has a negative predictive value of 95%-96% for advanced fibrosis. Only 1.7% of patients were referred for structured lifestyle program, 4.2% were on vitamin E, and 2.4% were on pioglitazone. More severe liver disease can be suspected or ruled out based on factors identified in this study. Utilisation of structured lifestyle program, vitamin E and pioglitazone was limited despite this being a cohort of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients with majority of patients having NASH. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Relative sensitivity of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI) for vegetation and desertification monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Becker, Francois; Choudhury, Bhaskar J.

    1988-01-01

    A simple equation relating the Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is proposed which represents well data obtained from Nimbus 7/SMMR at 37 GHz and NOAA/AVHRR Channels 1 and 2. It is found that there is a limit which is characteristic of a particular type of cover for which both indices are equally sensitive to the variation of vegetation, and below which MPDI is more efficient than NDVI. The results provide insight into the relationship between water content and chlorophyll absorption at pixel size scales.

  4. Non invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis in paediatric patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

    PubMed

    Iacobellis, Angelo; Marcellini, Matilde; Andriulli, Angelo; Perri, Francesco; Leandro, Gioacchino; Devito, Rita; Nobili, Valerio

    2006-12-28

    To identify the independent predictors of hepatic fibrosis in 69 children with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). All patients with clinically suspected NASH underwent liver biopsy as a confirmatory test. The following clinical and biochemical variables at baseline were examined as likely predictors of fibrosis at histology: age, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), dyastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting glucose, fasting insulin, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistence (HOMA-IR), cholesterol, tryglicerides, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), AST/ALT ratio, gamma glutamil transferase (GT), platelet count, prothrombin time (PT). At histology 28 (40.6%) patients had no fibrosis and 41 (59.4%) had mild to bridging fibrosis. At multivariate analysis, BMI > 26.3 was the only independent predictor of fibrosis (OR = 5.85, 95% CI = 1.6-21). BMI helps identify children with NASH who might have fibrotic deposition in the liver.

  5. Effects of pioglitazone on nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in a patient with anorexia nervosa: A case report.

    PubMed

    Ohno, Tomohiko; Nishigaki, Yoichi; Yamada, Tetsuya; Wakahara, Yuko; Sakai, Hiroyasu; Yoshimura, Kotaro; Shimizu, Masahito; Usui, Toshio; Saito, Masaya; Yasuda, Ichiro; Tsurumi, Hisashi; Tomita, Eiichi; Moriwaki, Hisataka

    2014-04-01

    Diseases associated with metabolic syndromes are of major concern in developed countries. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is one of the manifestations of metabolic syndrome in the liver. Previous studies have shown that NASH is also caused by malnutrition. In the present study, a case of malnutrition-associated NASH in a 66-year-old female with anorexia nervosa is reported. The patient had a body mass index (BMI) of only 11.1 kg/m 2 and serum alanine aminotransferase levels of 1,495 IU/l. Steatohepatitis with fibrosis was confirmed by percutaneous liver needle biopsy. Total parenteral nutrition was conducted at first, followed by the administration of Stronger Neo-Minophagen C (a glycyrrhizin-containing preparation), ursodeoxycholic acid and prednisolone. The abnormal elevation of aminotransferase levels of the patient was prolonged and total bilirubin levels increased. Pioglitazone (15 mg/day), which has been identified to be effective for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, was then administered. This resulted in marked reductions in aminotransferase and bilirubin levels within three months. Histological improvement of the liver was also confirmed by percutaneous liver needle biopsy after one year. The observations in the present case suggest that pioglitazone may be useful for the treatment of malnutrition-associated NASH.

  6. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOEpatents

    Bionta, R.M.; Makowiecki, D.M.; Skulina, K.M.

    1995-01-17

    A process is disclosed for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments in the soft x-ray region. 13 figures.

  7. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOEpatents

    Bionta, Richard M.; Makowiecki, Daniel M.; Skulina, Kenneth M.

    1995-01-01

    A process for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments m the soft x-ray region.

  8. Utility of the ELF Test for Detecting Steatohepatitis in Morbid Obese Patients with Suspicion of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    PubMed

    López, Iria Cebreiros; Aroca, Florentina Guzmán; Bernal, Maria Dolores Frutos; Mompeán, Juan Antonio Luján; Bernal, Águeda Bas; Martínez, Antonio Miguel Hernández; Barba, Enrique Martínez; Velasco, Jose Antonio Noguera; Paricio, Pascual Parilla

    2017-09-01

    Morbid obese patients have a high rate of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NASH is related to the progression and poor evolution of chronic hepatopathy in NAFLD, so that its detection makes it possible to identify the subjects who are most at risk in order to prioritize treatment. The ELF test (Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test; Siemens Diagnostics, NY, USA) has been assessed for its capacity to detect fibrosis in patients with NAFLD, but its capacity for diagnosing NASH has not been checked. Our objective is to determine the utility of the ELF test for detecting NASH in morbid obese patients with suspected NAFLD. ELF values were determined in a cohort of obese patients who underwent bariatric surgery with suspected NAFLD. Liver biopsy was used as the reference standard. The values of ELF were significantly higher in patients with NASH (p = 0.002) and in those who presented with metabolic syndrome (p = 0.047). An ELF cut-off point of 8.72 allows the detection of patients with NASH with a sensitivity of 71.4% and a specificity of 74.1% (AUC = 0.742, p = 0.002). The ELF test is efficient for the identification of obese patients with NAFLD and early signs of steatohepatitis and fibrosis.

  9. Modeling Nitrogen Dynamics in a Waste Stabilization Pond System Using Flexible Modeling Environment with MCMC.

    PubMed

    Mukhtar, Hussnain; Lin, Yu-Pin; Shipin, Oleg V; Petway, Joy R

    2017-07-12

    This study presents an approach for obtaining realization sets of parameters for nitrogen removal in a pilot-scale waste stabilization pond (WSP) system. The proposed approach was designed for optimal parameterization, local sensitivity analysis, and global uncertainty analysis of a dynamic simulation model for the WSP by using the R software package Flexible Modeling Environment (R-FME) with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Additionally, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was integrated into the FME to evaluate the major parameters that affect the simulation outputs in the study WSP. Comprehensive modeling analysis was used to simulate and assess nine parameters and concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Results indicate that the integrated FME-GLUE-based model, with good Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (0.53-0.69) and correlation coefficients (0.76-0.83), successfully simulates the concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Moreover, the Arrhenius constant was the only parameter sensitive to model performances of ON-N and NH₃-N simulations. However, Nitrosomonas growth rate, the denitrification constant, and the maximum growth rate at 20 °C were sensitive to ON-N and NO₃-N simulation, which was measured using global sensitivity.

  10. Scientometrics: Nature Index and Brazilian science.

    PubMed

    Silva, Valter

    2016-09-01

    A recent published newspaper article commented on the (lack of) quality of Brazilian science and its (in) efficiency. The newspaper article was based on a special issue of Nature and on a new resource for scientometrics called Nature Index. I show here arguments and sources of bias that, under the light of the principle in dubio pro reo, it is questionable to dispute the quality and efficiency of the Brazilian science on these grounds, as it was commented on the referred article. A brief overview of Brazilian science is provided for readers to make their own judgment.

  11. Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Anzo-Hernández, Andrés; Bonilla-Capilla, Beatriz; Soto-Bajo, Moisés; Fraguela-Collar, Andrés

    2018-01-01

    There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi) measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment. PMID:29432455

  12. Using Bitmap Indexing Technology for Combined Numerical and TextQueries

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stockinger, Kurt; Cieslewicz, John; Wu, Kesheng

    2006-10-16

    In this paper, we describe a strategy of using compressedbitmap indices to speed up queries on both numerical data and textdocuments. By using an efficient compression algorithm, these compressedbitmap indices are compact even for indices with millions of distinctterms. Moreover, bitmap indices can be used very efficiently to answerBoolean queries over text documents involving multiple query terms.Existing inverted indices for text searches are usually inefficient forcorpora with a very large number of terms as well as for queriesinvolving a large number of hits. We demonstrate that our compressedbitmap index technology overcomes both of those short-comings. In aperformance comparison against amore » commonly used database system, ourindices answer queries 30 times faster on average. To provide full SQLsupport, we integrated our indexing software, called FastBit, withMonetDB. The integrated system MonetDB/FastBit provides not onlyefficient searches on a single table as FastBit does, but also answersjoin queries efficiently. Furthermore, MonetDB/FastBit also provides avery efficient retrieval mechanism of result records.« less

  13. Evaluation of selection index: application to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index for soybean breeding.

    PubMed

    Bouchez, A; Goffinet, B

    1990-02-01

    Selection indices can be used to predict one trait from information available on several traits in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Plant or animal breeders are interested in selecting only the best individuals, and need to compare the efficiency of different trait combinations in order to choose the index ensuring the best prediction quality for individual values. As the usual tools for index evaluation do not remain unbiased in all cases, we propose a robust way of evaluation by means of an estimator of the mean-square error of prediction (EMSEP). This estimator remains valid even when parameters are not known, as usually assumed, but are estimated. EMSEP is applied to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index at the F5 generation of a classical breeding scheme for soybeans. Best predictions for precocity are obtained by means of indices using only part of the available information.

  14. Trade-offs between effectiveness and efficiency in stroke rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Chen, Cynthia; Cheong, Angela; Choo, Tai Bee; Pui, Choi Kwok; Phoon, Fong Ngan; Ming, Chan Kin; Yeow, Tan Boon; Petrella, Robert; Thind, Amardeep; Koh, David; Seng, Chia Kee

    2012-12-01

    Most stroke research has studied rehabilitation effectiveness and rehabilitation efficiency separately and not investigated the potential trade-offs between these two indices of rehabilitation. To determine whether there is a trade-off between independent factors of rehabilitation effectiveness and rehabilitation efficiency. Using a retrospective cohort study design, we studied all stroke patients (n = 2810) from two sub-acute rehabilitation hospitals from 1996 to 2005, representing 87·5% of national bed-years during the same period. Independent predictors of poorer rehabilitation effectiveness and log rehabilitation efficiency were • older age • race-ethnicity • caregiver availability • ischemic stroke • longer time to admission • dementia • admission Barthel Index score, and • length of stay. Rehabilitation effectiveness was lower in females, and the gender differences were significantly lower in those aged ≤70 years (β -4·7 (95% confidence interval -7·4 to -2·0)). There were trade-offs between effectiveness and efficiency with respect to admission Barthel Index score and length of stay. An increase of 10 in admission Barthel Index score predicted an increase of 3·6% (95% confidence interval 3·2-4·0) in effectiveness but a decrease of 0·04 (95% confidence interval -0·05 to -0·02) in log efficiency (a reduction of efficiency by 1·0 per 30 days). An increase in log length of stay by 1 (length of stay of 2·7 days) predicted an increase of 8·0% (95% confidence interval 5·7-10·3) in effectiveness but a decrease of 0·82 (95% confidence interval -0·90 to -0·74) in log efficiency (equivalent to a reduction in efficiency by 2·3 per 30 days). For optimal rehabilitation effectiveness and rehabilitation efficiency, the admission Barthel Index score was 30-62 and length of stay was 37-41 days. There are trade-offs between effectiveness and efficiency during inpatient sub-acute stroke rehabilitation with respect to admission functional

  15. Remote sensing for grassland management in the arid Southwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marsett, R.C.; Qi, J.; Heilman, P.; Biedenbender, S.H.; Watson, M.C.; Amer, S.; Weltz, M.; Goodrich, D.; Marsett, R.

    2006-01-01

    We surveyed a group of rangeland managers in the Southwest about vegetation monitoring needs on grassland. Based on their responses, the objective of the RANGES (Rangeland Analysis Utilizing Geospatial Information Science) project was defined to be the accurate conversion of remotely sensed data (satellite imagery) to quantitative estimates of total (green and senescent) standing cover and biomass on grasslands and semidesert grasslands. Although remote sensing has been used to estimate green vegetation cover, in arid grasslands herbaceous vegetation is senescent much of the year and is not detected by current remote sensing techniques. We developed a ground truth protocol compatible with both range management requirements and Landsat's 30 m resolution imagery. The resulting ground-truth data were then used to develop image processing algorithms that quantified total herbaceous vegetation cover, height, and biomass. Cover was calculated based on a newly developed Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI), and height and biomass were estimated based on reflectance in the near infrared (NIR) band. Comparison of the remotely sensed estimates with independent ground measurements produced r2 values of 0.80, 0.85, and 0.77 and Nash Sutcliffe values of 0.78, 0.70, and 0.77 for the cover, plant height, and biomass, respectively. The approach for estimating plant height and biomass did not work for sites where forbs comprised more than 30% of total vegetative cover. The ground reconnaissance protocol and image processing techniques together offer land managers accurate and timely methods for monitoring extensive grasslands. The time-consuming requirement to collect concurrent data in the field for each image implies a need to share the high fixed costs of processing an image across multiple users to reduce the costs for individual rangeland managers.

  16. Estimates of long-term water total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in three large shallow lakes in the Yangtze River basin, China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Pan; Qin, Boqiang; Yu, Ge

    2016-03-01

    The shallow lakes in the eastern China developed on alluvial plains with high-nutrient sediments, and most overflow into the Yangtze River with short hydraulic residence times, whereas they become eutrophic over long time periods. Assuming strong responses to hydrogeological changes in the basin, we attempted to determine the dynamic eutrophication history of these lakes. Although evaluation models for internal total phosphorus (TP) loading are widely used for deep lakes in Europe and North America, the accuracy of these models for shallow lakes that have smaller water volumes controlled by the geometrical morphology and greater basin area of alluvial plains is unknown. To describe the magnitude of changes in velocity of trophic state for the studied shallow lakes, we first evaluated the P retention model in relation to the major forces driving lake morphology, basin climate, and external discharge and then used the model to estimate changes in TP in three large shallow lakes (Taihu, Chao, and Poyang) over 60 years (1950-2009 AD). The observed levels of TP were verified against the relative error of the three lakes (<6.43 %) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (0.67-0.75). The results showed that the predicted TP concentrations largely increased with hydraulic residence time, especially in extreme drought years, with a generally rising trend in trophic status. The simulated trophic state index showed that lakes Taihu and Poyang became eutrophic in the 1990s, whereas Lake Chao became eutrophic in the 1980s; lakes Taihu and Chao ultimately became hypereutrophic in the 2000s. The analysis suggested that the tropic status of the shallow lakes was affected by both the hydroclimate and geological sedimentation of the Yangtze River basin. This work will contribute to the development of an internal P loading model for further evaluating trophic states.

  17. Application of global sensitivity analysis methods to Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacquin, A. P.; Shamseldin, A. Y.

    2009-04-01

    This study analyses the sensitivity of the parameters of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models previously developed by the authors. These models can be classified in two types, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity in the rainfall-runoff relationship. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) and Sobol's Variance Decomposition (SVD). In general, the RSA method has the disadvantage of not being able to detect sensitivities arising from parameter interactions. By contrast, the SVD method is suitable for analysing models where the model response surface is expected to be affected by interactions at a local scale and/or local optima, such as the case of the rainfall-runoff fuzzy models analysed in this study. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of two measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures are the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion and the index of volumetric fit. The results of the study show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the type of non-linear effects (i.e. changes in catchment wetness or seasonality) that dominates the catchment's rainfall-runoff relationship and the measure used to assess the model performance. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by FONDECYT, Research Grant 11070130. We would also like to express our gratitude to Prof. Kieran M. O'Connor from the National University of Ireland, Galway, for providing the data used in this study.

  18. Automatic Calibration of a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model, Using the Degree-Day Formulation for Snow Melting, Within DMIP2 Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frances, F.; Orozco, I.

    2010-12-01

    This work presents the assessment of the TETIS distributed hydrological model in mountain basins of the American and Carson rivers in Sierra Nevada (USA) at hourly time discretization, as part of the DMIP2 Project. In TETIS each cell of the spatial grid conceptualizes the water cycle using six tanks connected among them. The relationship between tanks depends on the case, although at the end in most situations, simple linear reservoirs and flow thresholds schemes are used with exceptional results (Vélez et al., 1999; Francés et al., 2002). In particular, within the snow tank, snow melting is based in this work on the simple degree-day method with spatial constant parameters. The TETIS model includes an automatic calibration module, based on the SCE-UA algorithm (Duan et al., 1992; Duan et al., 1994) and the model effective parameters are organized following a split structure, as presented by Francés and Benito (1995) and Francés et al. (2007). In this way, the calibration involves in TETIS up to 9 correction factors (CFs), which correct globally the different parameter maps instead of each parameter cell value, thus reducing drastically the number of variables to be calibrated. This strategy allows for a fast and agile modification in different hydrological processes preserving the spatial structure of each parameter map. With the snowmelt submodel, automatic model calibration was carried out in three steps, separating the calibration of rainfall-runoff and snowmelt parameters. In the first step, the automatic calibration of the CFs during the period 05/20/1990 to 07/31/1990 in the American River (without snow influence), gave a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) index of 0.92. The calibration of the three degree-day parameters was done using all the SNOTEL stations in the American and Carson rivers. Finally, using previous calibrations as initial values, the complete calibration done in the Carson River for the period 10/01/1992 to 07/31/1993 gave a NSE index of

  19. The evaluation of basin water resources utilization efficiency based on Chaos projection mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, X.; Liang, S.; Meng, Y.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    To promote the coordinated development of a healthy economy, society, and environment, and the sustainable development of water resources comprehensive utilization efficiency (WRCUE), this study investigated appropriate indicators using the trapezoidal fuzzy number method, and constructed an evaluation index system for WRCUE. A WRCUE evaluation model is applied to the areas in the Yellow River Basin in China using a genetic projection pursuit method. The comprehensive evaluation index system of water use efficiency includes 6 indicators: Water consumption per unit industrial value added, water consumption per unit GDP, eliminate the climate effect on agricultural water use efficiency, irrigation water consumption per unit area, domestic water use per capita and industrial water ratio. Then, multiple indexes in the index system are transformed to a comprehensive index by the combined model, which is used to represent the total water resources utilization efficiency. Results show that the WRCUE in Yellow River basin and the provinces have a great distance. WRCUE is well developed in Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan provinces, moderately developed in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan provinces, and poorly developed in the Ningxia Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, and Qinghai Province. According to the capacities of provinces, related measures are proposed.

  20. Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farmer, William H.

    2016-01-01

    Efficient and responsible management of water resources relies on accurate streamflow records. However, many watersheds are ungaged, limiting the ability to assess and understand local hydrology. Several tools have been developed to alleviate this data scarcity, but few provide continuous daily streamflow records at individual streamgages within an entire region. Building on the history of hydrologic mapping, ordinary kriging was extended to predict daily streamflow time series on a regional basis. Pooling parameters to estimate a single, time-invariant characterization of spatial semivariance structure is shown to produce accurate reproduction of streamflow. This approach is contrasted with a time-varying series of variograms, representing the temporal evolution and behavior of the spatial semivariance structure. Furthermore, the ordinary kriging approach is shown to produce more accurate time series than more common, single-index hydrologic transfers. A comparison between topological kriging and ordinary kriging is less definitive, showing the ordinary kriging approach to be significantly inferior in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies while maintaining significantly superior performance measured by root mean squared errors. Given the similarity of performance and the computational efficiency of ordinary kriging, it is concluded that ordinary kriging is useful for first-order approximation of daily streamflow time series in ungaged watersheds.

  1. Evaluation of different parameterizations of the spatial heterogeneity of subsurface storage capacity for hourly runoff simulation in boreal mountainous watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hailegeorgis, Teklu T.; Alfredsen, Knut; Abdella, Yisak S.; Kolberg, Sjur

    2015-03-01

    Identification of proper parameterizations of spatial heterogeneity is required for precipitation-runoff models. However, relevant studies with a specific aim at hourly runoff simulation in boreal mountainous catchments are not common. We conducted calibration and evaluation of hourly runoff simulation in a boreal mountainous watershed based on six different parameterizations of the spatial heterogeneity of subsurface storage capacity for a semi-distributed (subcatchments hereafter called elements) and distributed (1 × 1 km2 grid) setup. We evaluated representation of element-to-element, grid-to-grid, and probabilistic subcatchment/subbasin, subelement and subgrid heterogeneities. The parameterization cases satisfactorily reproduced the streamflow hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values for the calibration and validation periods up to 0.84 and 0.86 respectively, and similarly for the log-transformed streamflow up to 0.85 and 0.90. The parameterizations reproduced the flow duration curves, but predictive reliability in terms of quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots indicated marked over and under predictions. The simple and parsimonious parameterizations with no subelement or no subgrid heterogeneities provided equivalent simulation performance compared to the more complex cases. The results indicated that (i) identification of parameterizations require measurements from denser precipitation stations than what is required for acceptable calibration of the precipitation-streamflow relationships, (ii) there is challenges in the identification of parameterizations based on only calibration to catchment integrated streamflow observations and (iii) a potential preference for the simple and parsimonious parameterizations for operational forecast contingent on their equivalent simulation performance for the available input data. In addition, the effects of non-identifiability of parameters (interactions and equifinality) can contribute to the non-identifiability of the

  2. Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

    2017-01-01

    The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R2 was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses. PMID:29257117

  3. Linking river, floodplain, and vadose zone hydrology to improve restoration of a coastal river affected by saltwater intrusion.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, D; Muñoz-Carpena, R; Wan, Y; Hedgepeth, M; Zheng, F; Roberts, R; Rossmanith, R

    2010-01-01

    Floodplain forests provide unique ecological structure and function, which are often degraded or lost when watershed hydrology is modified. Restoration of damaged ecosystems requires an understanding of surface water, groundwater, and vadose (unsaturated) zone hydrology in the floodplain. Soil moisture and porewater salinity are of particular importance for seed germination and seedling survival in systems affected by saltwater intrusion but are difficult to monitor and often overlooked. This study contributes to the understanding of floodplain hydrology in one of the last bald cypress [Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.] floodplain swamps in southeast Florida. We investigated soil moisture and porewater salinity dynamics in the floodplain of the Loxahatchee River, where reduced freshwater flow has led to saltwater intrusion and a transition to salt-tolerant, mangrove-dominated communities. Twenty-four dielectric probes measuring soil moisture and porewater salinity every 30 min were installed along two transects-one in an upstream, freshwater location and one in a downstream tidal area. Complemented by surface water, groundwater, and meteorological data, these unique 4-yr datasets quantified the spatial variability and temporal dynamics of vadose zone hydrology. Results showed that soil moisture can be closely predicted based on river stage and topographic elevation (overall Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency = 0.83). Porewater salinity rarely exceeded tolerance thresholds (0.3125 S m(-1)) for bald cypress upstream but did so in some downstream areas. This provided an explanation for observed vegetation changes that both surface water and groundwater salinity failed to explain. The results offer a methodological and analytical framework for floodplain monitoring in locations where restoration success depends on vadose zone hydrology and provide relationships for evaluating proposed restoration and management scenarios for the Loxahatchee River.

  4. Statistical and Hydrological evaluation of precipitation forecasts from IMD MME and ECMWF numerical weather forecasts for Indian River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohite, A. R.; Beria, H.; Behera, A. K.; Chatterjee, C.; Singh, R.

    2016-12-01

    Flood forecasting using hydrological models is an important and cost-effective non-structural flood management measure. For forecasting at short lead times, empirical models using real-time precipitation estimates have proven to be reliable. However, their skill depreciates with increasing lead time. Coupling a hydrologic model with real-time rainfall forecasts issued from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems could increase the lead time substantially. In this study, we compared 1-5 days precipitation forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) with European Center for Medium Weather forecast (ECMWF) NWP forecasts for over 86 major river basins in India. We then evaluated the hydrologic utility of these forecasts over Basantpur catchment (approx. 59,000 km2) of the Mahanadi River basin. Coupled MIKE 11 RR (NAM) and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) models were used for the development of flood forecast system (FFS). RR model was calibrated using IMD station rainfall data. Cross-sections extracted from SRTM 30 were used as input to the MIKE 11 HD model. IMD started issuing operational MME forecasts from the year 2008, and hence, both the statistical and hydrologic evaluation were carried out from 2008-2014. The performance of FFS was evaluated using both the NWP datasets separately for the year 2011, which was a large flood year in Mahanadi River basin. We will present figures and metrics for statistical (threshold based statistics, skill in terms of correlation and bias) and hydrologic (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, mean and peak error statistics) evaluation. The statistical evaluation will be at pan-India scale for all the major river basins and the hydrologic evaluation will be for the Basantpur catchment of the Mahanadi River basin.

  5. Assessing the Hydrologic Performance of the EPA's Nonpoint Source Water Quality Assessment Decision Support Tool Using North American Land Data Assimilation System (Products)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S.; Ni-Meister, W.; Toll, D.; Nigro, J.; Guiterrez-Magness, A.; Engman, T.

    2010-01-01

    The accuracy of streamflow predictions in the EPA's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) decision support tool is affected by the sparse meteorological data contained in BASINS. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data with high spatial and temporal resolutions provide an alternative to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s station data. This study assessed the improvement of streamflow prediction of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model contained within BASINS using the NLDAS 118 degree hourly precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates in seven watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Our results demonstrated consistent improvements of daily streamflow predictions in five of the seven watersheds when NLDAS precipitation and evapotranspiration data was incorporated into BASINS. The improvement of using the NLDAS data is significant when watershed's meteorological station is either far away or not in a similar climatic region. When the station is nearby, using the NLDAS data produces similar results. The correlation coefficients of the analyses using the NLDAS data were greater than 0.8, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) model fit efficiency greater than 0.6, and the error in the water balance was less than 5%. Our analyses also showed that the streamflow improvements were mainly contributed by the NLDAS's precipitation data and that the improvement from using NLDAS's evapotranspiration data was not significant; partially due to the constraints of current BASINS-HSPF settings. However, NLDAS's evapotranspiration data did improve the baseflow prediction. This study demonstrates the NLDAS data has the potential to improve stream flow predictions, thus aid the water quality assessment in the EPA nonpoint water quality assessment decision tool.

  6. Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

    2018-01-01

    The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

  7. Effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling. A case study of a mountainous catchment in Southern Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engeland, Kolbjørn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Johansen, Stian Solvang; Petersen-Øverleir, Asgeir; Kolberg, Sjur

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we explore the effect of uncertainty and poor observation quality on hydrological model calibration and predictions. The Osali catchment in Western Norway was selected as case study and an elevation distributed HBV-model was used. We systematically evaluated the effect of accounting for uncertainty in parameters, precipitation input, temperature input and streamflow observations. For precipitation and temperature we accounted for the interpolation uncertainty, and for streamflow we accounted for rating curve uncertainty. Further, the effects of poorer quality of precipitation input and streamflow observations were explored. Less information about precipitation was obtained by excluding the nearest precipitation station from the analysis, while reduced information about the streamflow was obtained by omitting the highest and lowest streamflow observations when estimating the rating curve. The results showed that including uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature inputs has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Less information in precipitation input resulted in a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions, giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using streamflow observations based on different rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for rating curves giving smoother streamflow observations. Less information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores by giving both better and worse scores.

  8. Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Naz, Bibi S.

    2016-12-01

    During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal/industrial water supplies, and hydropower generation. Consequently, natural streamflow timing and magnitude have been altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified by land use/land cover and climate changes. To understand the fine scale feedback between hydrological processes and water management decisions, a distributed hydrological model embedded with a reservoir component is of desire. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module with predefined complex operational rules was integrated into the Distributed Hydrologymore » Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Conditional operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The performance of the integrated model was tested over the upper Brazos River Basin in Texas, where two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs, Lake Whitney and Aquilla Lake, are located. The integrated DHSVM model was calibrated and validated using observed reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage data. The error statistics were summarized for both reservoirs on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Using the weekly reservoir storage for Lake Whitney as an example, the coefficients of determination (R2) and the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) are 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. These results suggest that this reservoir module has promise for use in sub-monthly hydrological simulations. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform to support adaptive water resources management under the impacts of evolving anthropogenic activities and substantial environmental changes.« less

  9. Impact of different satellite soil moisture products on the predictions of a continuous distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laiolo, P.; Gabellani, S.; Campo, L.; Silvestro, F.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Boni, G.; Fascetti, F.; Pierdicca, N.; Crapolicchio, R.; Hasenauer, S.; Puca, S.

    2016-06-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the flood predictions and hydrological cycle description. Nowadays remotely sensed data can offer a chance to improve hydrological models especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to update the state variables of a physically based, distributed and continuous hydrological model using four different satellite-derived data (three soil moisture products and a land surface temperature measurement) and one soil moisture analysis to evaluate, even with a non optimal technique, the impact on the hydrological cycle. The experiments were carried out for a small catchment, in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. The products were pre-processed according to their own characteristics and then they were assimilated into the model using a simple nudging technique. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge were tested against observations. The analysis showed a general improvement of the model discharge predictions, even with a simple assimilation technique, for all the assimilation experiments; the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was increased from 0.6 (relative to the model without assimilation) to 0.7, moreover, errors on discharge were reduced up to the 10%. An added value to the model was found in the rainfall season (autumn): all the assimilation experiments reduced the errors up to the 20%. This demonstrated that discharge prediction of a distributed hydrological model, which works at fine scale resolution in a small basin, can be improved with the assimilation of coarse-scale satellite-derived data.

  10. Distributed Modelling of Stormflow Generation: Assessing the Effect of Ground Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarihani, B.; Sidle, R. C.; Roth, C. H.; Bartley, R.; Wilkinson, S. N.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the effects of grazing management and land cover changes on surface hydrology is important for water resources and land management. A distributed hydrological modelling platform, wflow, (that was developed as part of Deltares's OpenStreams project) is used to assess the effect of land management practices on runoff generation processes. The model was applied to Weany Creek, a small catchment (13.6 km2) of the Burdekin Basin, North Australia, which is being studied to understand sources of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. Satellite and drone-based ground cover data, high resolution topography from LiDAR, soil properties, and distributed rainfall data were used to parameterise the model. Wflow was used to predict total runoff, peak runoff, time of rise, and lag time for several events of varying magnitudes and antecedent moisture conditions. A nested approach was employed to calibrate the model by using recorded flow hydrographs at three scales: (1) a hillslope sub-catchment: (2) a gullied sub-catchment; and the 13.6 km2 catchment outlet. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and predicted stormflow hydrograph attributes using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric. By using a nested approach, spatiotemporal patterns of overland flow occurrence across the catchment can also be evaluated. The results show that a process-based distributed model can be calibrated to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of runoff generation processes, to help identify dominant processes which may be addressed by land management to improve rainfall retention. The model will be used to assess the effects of ground cover changes due to management practices in grazed lands on storm runoff.

  11. Relative Linkages of Stream Dissolved Oxygen with the Hydroclimatic and Biogeochemical Drivers across the Gulf Coast of U.S.A.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebreslase, A. K.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    Dynamics of coastal stream water quality is influenced by a multitude of interacting environmental drivers. A systematic data analytics approach was employed to determine the relative linkages of stream dissolved oxygen (DO) with the hydroclimatic and biogeochemical variables across the Gulf Coast of U.S.A. Multivariate pattern recognition techniques of PCA and FA, alongside Pearson's correlation matrix, were utilized to examine the interrelation of variables at 36 water quality monitoring stations from USGS NWIS and EPA STORET databases. Power-law based partial least square regression models with a bootstrap Monte Carlo procedure (1000 iterations) were developed to estimate the relative linkages of dissolved oxygen with the hydroclimatic and biogeochemical variables by appropriately resolving multicollinearity (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.58-0.94). Based on the dominant drivers, stations were divided into four environmental regimes. Water temperature was the dominant driver of DO in the majority of streams, representing most the northern part of Gulf Coast states. However, streams in the southern part of Texas and Florida showed a dominant pH control on stream DO. Further, streams representing the transition zone of the two environmental regimes showed notable controls of multiple drivers (i.e., water temperature, stream flow, and specific conductance) on the stream DO. The data analytics research provided profound insight to understand the dynamics of stream DO with the hydroclimatic and biogeochemical variables. The knowledge can help water quality managers in formulating plans for effective stream water quality and watershed management in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Keywords Data analytics, coastal streams, relative linkages, dissolved oxygen, environmental regimes, Gulf Coast, United States.

  12. Representing uncertainty in objective functions: extension to include the influence of serial correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Croke, B. F.

    2008-12-01

    The role of performance indicators is to give an accurate indication of the fit between a model and the system being modelled. As all measurements have an associated uncertainty (determining the significance that should be given to the measurement), performance indicators should take into account uncertainties in the observed quantities being modelled as well as in the model predictions (due to uncertainties in inputs, model parameters and model structure). In the presence of significant uncertainty in observed and modelled output of a system, failure to adequately account for variations in the uncertainties means that the objective function only gives a measure of how well the model fits the observations, not how well the model fits the system being modelled. Since in most cases, the interest lies in fitting the system response, it is vital that the objective function(s) be designed to account for these uncertainties. Most objective functions (e.g. those based on the sum of squared residuals) assume homoscedastic uncertainties. If model contribution to the variations in residuals can be ignored, then transformations (e.g. Box-Cox) can be used to remove (or at least significantly reduce) heteroscedasticity. An alternative which is more generally applicable is to explicitly represent the uncertainties in the observed and modelled values in the objective function. Previous work on this topic addressed the modifications to standard objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE, chi- squared, coefficient of determination) using the optimal weighted averaging approach. This paper extends this previous work; addressing the issue of serial correlation. A form for an objective function that includes serial correlation will be presented, and the impact on model fit discussed.

  13. Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender Simulation of Three Adjacent Row-Crop Watersheds in the Claypan Region.

    PubMed

    Anomaa Senaviratne, G M M M; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Baffaut, Claire; Anderson, Stephen H

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is used to evaluate best management practices on pollutant loading in whole farms or small watersheds. The objectives of this study were to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of model parameters on APEX output and use the parameterized, calibrated, and validated model to evaluate long-term benefits of grass waterways. The APEX model was used to model three (East, Center, and West) adjacent field-size watersheds with claypan soils under a no-till corn ( L.)/soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation. Twenty-seven parameters were sensitive for crop yield, runoff, sediment, nitrogen (dissolved and total), and phosphorous (dissolved and total) simulations. The model was calibrated using measured event-based data from the Center watershed from 1993 to 1997 and validated with data from the West and East watersheds. Simulated crop yields were within ±13% of the measured yield. The model performance for event-based runoff was excellent, with calibration and validation > 0.9 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (NSC) > 0.8, respectively. Sediment and total nitrogen calibration results were satisfactory for larger rainfall events (>50 mm), with > 0.5 and NSC > 0.4, but validation results remained poor, with NSC between 0.18 and 0.3. Total phosphorous was well calibrated and validated, with > 0.8 and NSC > 0.7, respectively. The presence of grass waterways reduced annual total phosphorus loadings by 13 to 25%. The replicated study indicates that APEX provides a convenient and efficient tool to evaluate long-term benefits of conservation practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  14. Does the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flows affect precipitation predictability? A WRF-Hydro ensemble analysis for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, Joel; Rummler, Thomas; Baur, Florian; Lerch, Sebastian; Wagner, Sven; Fersch, Benjamin; Zhang, Zhenyu; Kerandi, Noah; Keil, Christian; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation predictability can be assessed by the spread within an ensemble of atmospheric simulations being perturbed in the initial, lateral boundary conditions and/or modeled processes within a range of uncertainty. Surface-related processes are more likely to change precipitation when synoptic forcing is weak. This study investigates the effect of uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flows on precipitation predictability. The tools used for this investigation are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its hydrologically-enhanced version WRF-Hydro, applied over Central Europe during April-October 2008. The WRF grid is that of COSMO-DE, with a resolution of 2.8 km. In WRF-Hydro, the WRF grid is coupled with a sub-grid at 280 m resolution to resolve lateral terrestrial water flows. Vertical flow uncertainty is considered by modifying the parameter controlling the partitioning between surface runoff and infiltration in WRF, and horizontal flow uncertainty is considered by comparing WRF with WRF-Hydro. Precipitation predictability is deduced from the spread of an ensemble based on three turbulence parameterizations. Model results are validated with E-OBS precipitation and surface temperature, ESA-CCI soil moisture, FLUXNET-MTE surface evaporation and GRDC discharge. It is found that the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flows is more likely to significantly affect precipitation predictability when surface flux spatial variability is high. In comparison to the WRF ensemble, WRF-Hydro slightly improves the adjusted continuous ranked probability score of daily precipitation. The reproduction of observed daily discharge with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients up to 0.91 demonstrates the potential of WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting.

  15. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER): A Water-Budget Modeling Approach for Managing Water-Supply Resources in Kentucky - Phase I: Data Processing, Model Development, and Application to Non-Karst Areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williamson, Tanja N.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Downs, Aimee C.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Cinotto, Peter J.; Ayers, Mark A.

    2009-01-01

    The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) was developed in cooperation with the Kentucky Division of Water to provide a consistent and defensible method of estimating streamflow and water availability in ungaged basins. WATER is process oriented; it is based on the TOPMODEL code and incorporates historical water-use data together with physiographic data that quantitatively describe topography and soil-water storage. The result is a user-friendly decision tool that can estimate water availability in non-karst areas of Kentucky without additional data or processing. The model runs on a daily time step, and critical source data include a historical record of daily temperature and precipitation, digital elevation models (DEMs), the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO), and historical records of water discharges and withdrawals. The model was calibrated and statistically evaluated for 12 basins by comparing the estimated discharge to that observed at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. When statistically evaluated over a 2,119-day time period, the discharge estimates showed a bias of -0.29 to 0.42, a root mean square error of 1.66 to 5.06, a correlation of 0.54 to 0.85, and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.26 to 0.72. The parameter and input modifications that most significantly improved the accuracy and precision of streamflow-discharge estimates were the addition of Next Generation radar (NEXRAD) precipitation data, a rooting depth of 30 centimeters, and a TOPMODEL scaling parameter (m) derived directly from SSURGO data that was multiplied by an adjustment factor of 0.10. No site-specific optimization was used.

  16. The Spontaneous Ray Log: A New Aid for Constructing Pseudo-Synthetic Seismograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quadir, Adnan; Lewis, Charles; Rau, Ruey-Juin

    2018-02-01

    Conventional synthetic seismograms for hydrocarbon exploration combine the sonic and density logs, whereas pseudo-synthetic seismograms are constructed with a density log plus a resistivity, neutron, gamma ray, or rarely a spontaneous potential log. Herein, we introduce a new technique for constructing a pseudo-synthetic seismogram by combining the gamma ray (GR) and self-potential (SP) logs to produce the spontaneous ray (SR) log. Three wells, each of which consisted of more than 1000 m of carbonates, sandstones, and shales, were investigated; each well was divided into 12 Groups based on formation tops, and the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PCC) was calculated for each "Group" from each of the GR, SP, and SR logs. The highest PCC-valued log curves for each Group were then combined to produce a single log whose values were cross-plotted against the reference well's sonic ITT values to determine a linear transform for producing a pseudo-sonic (PS) log and, ultimately, a pseudo-synthetic seismogram. The range for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) acceptable value for the pseudo-sonic logs of three wells was 78-83%. This technique was tested on three wells, one of which was used as a blind test well, with satisfactory results. The PCC value between the composite PS (SR) log with low-density correction and the conventional sonic (CS) log was 86%. Because of the common occurrence of spontaneous potential and gamma ray logs in many of the hydrocarbon basins of the world, this inexpensive and straightforward technique could hold significant promise in areas that are in need of alternate ways to create pseudo-synthetic seismograms for seismic reflection interpretation.

  17. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

    2017-10-01

    Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  18. Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate.

    PubMed

    Sridhar, Venkataramana; Billah, Mirza M; Hildreth, John W

    2017-11-09

    Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC-MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC-MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC-MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of -0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative-forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater-surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  19. Coupled long term simulation of reach scale water and heat fluxes across the river groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munz, Matthias; Oswald, Sascha E.; Schmidt, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Flow pattern and seasonal as well as diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many microbial processes. In this study we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high frequent observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures for quantifying reach scale water and heat flux across the river groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel-bed river. The magnitude and dynamics of simulated temperatures matched the observed with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. Our results highlight that the average temperature in the hyporheic zone follows the temperature in the river which is characterized by distinct seasonal and daily temperature cycles. Individual hyporheic flow path temperature substantially varies around the average hyporheic temperature. Hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly depend on the flow path residence time and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater; that is, in winter the average flow path temperature of long flow paths is potentially higher compared to short flow paths. Based on the simulation results we derived a general empirical relationship, estimating the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time on hyporheic flow path temperature. Furthermore we used an empirical temperature relationship between effective temperature and respiration rate to estimate the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on hyporheic oxygen consumption. This study highlights the relation between complex hyporheic temperature patterns, hyporheic residence times and their implications on temperature sensitive biogeochemical processes.

  20. Coupled Long-Term Simulation of Reach-Scale Water and Heat Fluxes Across the River-Groundwater Interface for Retrieving Hyporheic Residence Times and Temperature Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munz, Matthias; Oswald, Sascha E.; Schmidt, Christian

    2017-11-01

    Flow patterns in conjunction with seasonal and diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many temperature-sensitive microbial processes. In this study, we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high-resolution observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures to quantify reach-scale water and heat flux across the river-groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel bed river. The model was calibrated in order to constrain estimates of the most sensitive model parameters. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7°C and an average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.87. Our results indicate that nonsubmerged streambed structures such as gravel bars cause substantial thermal heterogeneity within the saturated sediment at the reach scale. Individual hyporheic flow path temperatures strongly depend on the flow path residence time, flow path depth, river, and groundwater temperature. Variations in individual hyporheic flow path temperatures were up to 7.9°C, significantly higher than the daily average (2.8°C), but still lower than the average seasonal hyporheic temperature difference (19.2°C). The distribution between flow path temperatures and residence times follows a power law relationship with exponent of about 0.37. Based on this empirical relation, we further estimated the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on oxygen consumption which was found to partly increase by up to 29% in simulations.