Weather Safety - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Safety Weather Safety This page weather safety. StormReady NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Information Network U.S. Hazard Assmt

Development of the Rice Convection Model as a Space Weather Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-31

coupled to the ionosphere that is suitable for both scientific studies as well as a prediction tool. We are able to run the model faster than “real...of work by finding ways to fund a more systematic effort in making the RCM a space weather prediction tool for magnetospheric and ionospheric studies...convection electric field, total electron content, TEC, ionospheric convection, plasmasphere 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT

Application of new methods based on ECMWF ensemble model for predicting severe convective weather situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazar, Dora; Ihasz, Istvan

2013-04-01

The short and medium range operational forecasts, warning and alarm of the severe weather are one of the most important activities of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Our study provides comprehensive summary of newly developed methods based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts to assist successful prediction of the convective weather situations. . In the first part of the study a brief overview is given about the components of atmospheric convection, which are the atmospheric lifting force, convergence and vertical wind shear. The atmospheric instability is often used to characterize the so-called instability index; one of the most popular and often used indexes is the convective available potential energy. Heavy convective events, like intensive storms, supercells and tornadoes are needed the vertical instability, adequate moisture and vertical wind shear. As a first step statistical studies of these three parameters are based on nine years time series of 51-member ensemble forecasting model based on convective summer time period, various statistical analyses were performed. Relationship of the rate of the convective and total precipitation and above three parameters was studied by different statistical methods. Four new visualization methods were applied for supporting successful forecasts of severe weathers. Two of the four visualization methods the ensemble meteogram and the ensemble vertical profiles had been available at the beginning of our work. Both methods show probability of the meteorological parameters for the selected location. Additionally two new methods have been developed. First method provides probability map of the event exceeding predefined values, so the incident of the spatial uncertainty is well-defined. The convective weather events are characterized by the incident of space often rhapsodic occurs rather have expected the event area can be selected so that the ensemble forecasts give very good support. Another new visualization tool shows time

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judt, Falko

2017-04-01

A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

Tactical Versus Strategic Behavior: General Aviation Piloting in Convective Weather Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

2002-01-01

We commonly describe environments and behavioral responses to environmental conditions as 'tactical' and 'strategic.' However theoretical research defining relevant environmental characteristics is rare, as are empirical investigations that would inform such theory. This paper discusses General Aviation (GA) pilots' descriptions of tactical/strategic conditions with respect to weather flying, and evaluates their ratings along a tactical/strategic scale in response to real convective weather scenarios experienced during a flight experiment with different weather information cues. Perceived risk was significantly associated with ratings for all experimental conditions. In addition, environmental characteristics were found to be predictive of ratings for Traditional IMC (instrument meteorological conditions), i.e., aural weather information only, and Traditional VMC (visual meteorological conditions), i.e., aural information and an external view. The paper also presents subjects' comments regarding use of Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) to support tactical and strategic weather flying decisions and concludes with implications for the design and use of GWISs.

Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Mazon, J.; Carrillo, C. M.; Adams, D. K.

2015-12-01

The North American monsoon (NAM) is the principal driver of summer severe weather in the Southwest U.S. Monsoon convection typically initiates during daytime over the mountains and may organize into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most monsoon-related severe weather occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. A convective resolving grid spacing (on the kilometer scale) model is required to explicitly represent the physical characteristics of organized convection, for example the presence of leading convective lines and trailing stratiform precipitation regions. Our objective is to analyze how monsoon severe weather is changing in relation to anthropogenic climate change. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis during a historical period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather event days, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 30h at a convective-permitting scale. Changes in modeled severe weather events indicate increases in precipitation intensity in association with long-term increases in atmospheric instability and moisture, particularly with organized convection downwind of mountain ranges. However, because the frequency of synoptic transients is decreasing during the monsoon, organized convection is less frequent and convective precipitation tends to be more phased locked to terrain. These types of modeled changes also similarly appear in observed CPC precipitation, when the severe weather event days are selected using historical radiosonde data. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future with respect to occurrence and intensity and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring in the historical

Decision-Making in Flight with Different Convective Weather Information Sources: Preliminary Results from the Langley CoWS Experiment (COnvective Weather Sources)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, Jim; Latorella, Kara

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on an airborne experiment designed to test the decision making of pilots receiving different sources of meteorological data. The presentation covers the equipment used in the COnvective Weather Sources (CoWS) Experiment), including the information system and display devices available to some of the subjects. It also describes the experiment, which featured teams of general aviation pilots, who were onboard but did not actually fly the aircraft used in the experiment. The presentation includes the results of a survey of the subjects' confidence.

Weather Education/Outreach - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Careers in Weather - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

2006-01-01

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following

Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaus, Luke

Successfully forecasting when and where individual convective storms will form remains an elusive goal for short-term numerical weather prediction. In this dissertation, the convective initiation (CI) challenge is considered as a problem of insufficiently resolved initial conditions and dense surface weather observations are explored as a possible solution. To better quantify convective-scale surface variability in numerical simulations of discrete convective initiation, idealized ensemble simulations of a variety of environments where CI occurs in response to boundary-layer processes are examined. Coherent features 1-2 hours prior to CI are found in all surface fields examined. While some features were broadly expected, such as positive temperature anomalies and convergent winds, negative temperature anomalies due to cloud shadowing are the largest surface anomaly seen prior to CI. Based on these simulations, several hypotheses about the required characteristics of a surface observing network to constrain CI forecasts are developed. Principally, these suggest that observation spacings of less than 4---5 km would be required, based on correlation length scales. Furthermore, it is anticipated that 2-m temperature and 10-m wind observations would likely be more relevant for effectively constraining variability than surface pressure or 2-m moisture observations based on the magnitudes of observed anomalies relative to observation error. These hypotheses are tested with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a single CI-capable environment. The OSSE results largely confirm the hypotheses, and with 4-km and particularly 1-km surface observation spacing, skillful forecasts of CI are possible, but only within two hours of CI time. Several facets of convective-scale assimilation, including the need for properly-calibrated localization and problems from non-Gaussian ensemble estimates of the cloud field are discussed. Finally, the characteristics

Flight Departure Delay and Rerouting Under Uncertainty in En Route Convective Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar

2011-01-01

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, updated weather forecasts and flight schedules are used. At each stage, weather forecasts up to a certain look-ahead time are treated as deterministic and flight scheduling is done to mitigate the impact of weather on four-dimensional flight trajectories. Uncertainty in weather forecasts during departure scheduling results in tactical airborne holding of flights. The amount of airborne holding depends on the accuracy of forecasts as well as the look-ahead time included in the departure scheduling. The weather forecast look-ahead time is varied systematically within the experiments performed in this paper to analyze its effect on flight delays. Based on the results, longer look-ahead times cause higher departure delays and additional flying time due to reroutes. However, the amount of airborne holding necessary to prevent weather incursions reduces when the forecast look-ahead times are higher. For the chosen day of traffic and weather, setting the look-ahead time to 90 minutes yields the lowest total delay cost.

National Maps - Pacific - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Doppler Radar National Mosaic - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Forecasts - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Observations - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Convective Aggregation, Climate Sensitivity, and the Importance of Radiation Physics in Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.

2015-12-01

Since the revolutionary work of Vilhelm Bjerknes, Jule Charney, and Eric Eady, geophysical fluid dynamics has dominated weather research and continues to play an important in climate dynamics. Although the physics of radiative transfer is central to understanding climate, it has played a far smaller role in weather research and is given only rudimentary attention in most educational programs in meteorology. Yet key contemporary problems in atmospheric science, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the self-aggregation of moist convection, do not appear to have been solved by approaches based strictly on fluid dynamics and moist adiabatic thermodynamics. Here I will argue that many outstanding problems in meteorology and climate science involve a nontrivial coupling of circulation and radiation physics. In particular, the phenomenon of self-aggregation of moist convection depends on the interaction of radiation with time-varying water vapor and clouds, with strong implications for such diverse problems as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, and the relative insensitivity of tropical climate to radiative forcing. This argues for an augmentation of radiative transfer physics in graduate curricula in atmospheric sciences.

History of the National Weather Service - Public Affairs - NOAA's National

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enter or select the go button to submit request City, St Go About NWS -Mission -Strategic Plan -History and local government web resources and services. Home >> History History of the National Weather Service The National Weather Service has its beginnings in the early history of the United States. Weather

National Weather Service

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Forecast and Warning Services of the National Weather Service Introduction Quantitative precipitation future which is an active area of research currently. 2) Evaluate HPN performance for forecast periods

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavordsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

2014-01-01

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use

Application of rain scanner SANTANU and transportable weather radar in analyze of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) events over Bandung, West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, G. A.; Sinatra, T.; Trismidianto; Fathrio, I.

2018-05-01

Simultaneous observation of transportable weather radar LAPAN-GMR25SP and rain-scanner SANTANU were conducted in Bandung and vicinity. The objective is to observe and analyse the weather condition in this area during rainy and transition season from March until April 2017. From the observation result reported some heavy rainfall with hail and strong winds occurred on March 17th and April 19th 2017. This events were lasted within 1 to 2 hours damaged some properties and trees in Bandung. Mesoscale convective system (MCS) are assumed to be the cause of this heavy rainfall. From two radar data analysis showed a more local convective activity in around 11.00 until 13.00 LT. This local convective activity are showed from the SANTANU observation supported by the VSECT and CMAX of the Transportable radar data that signify the convective activity within those area. MCS activity were observed one hour after that. This event are confirm by the classification of convective-stratiform echoes from radar data and also from the high convective index from Tbb Himawari 8 satellite data. The different MCS activity from this two case study is that April 19 have much more MCS activity than in March 17, 2017.

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

Modeling the convective transport of pollutants from eastern Colorado, USA into Rocky Mountain National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pina, A.; Schumacher, R. S.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is a Class I Airshed designated under the Clean Air Act. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the Park has been a known problem since weekly measurements of wet deposition of inorganic N began in the 1980s by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The addition of N from urban and agriculture emissions along the Colorado Front Range to montane ecosystems degrades air quality/visibility, water quality, and soil pH levels. Based on NADP data during summers 1994-2014, wet N deposition at Beaver Meadows in RMNP exhibited a bimodal gamma distribution. In this study, we identified meteorological transport mechanisms for 3 high wet-N deposition events (all events were within the secondary peak of the gamma distribution) using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NARR was used to identify synoptic-scale influences on the transport; the WRF model was used to analyze the convective transport of pollutants from a concentrated animal feeding operation near Greeley, Colorado, USA. The WRF simulation included a passive tracer from the feeding operation and a convection-permitting horizontal spacing of 4/3 km. The three cases suggest (a) synoptic-scale moisture and flow patterns are important for priming summer transport events and (b) convection plays a vital role in the transport of Front Range pollutants into RMNP.

Warnings/Watches - NOAA's National Weather Service

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Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model

A Generalized Simple Formulation of Convective Adjustment Timescale for Cumulus Convection Parameterizations

EPA Science Inventory

Convective adjustment timescale (τ) for cumulus clouds is one of the most influential parameters controlling parameterized convective precipitation in climate and weather simulation models at global and regional scales. Due to the complex nature of deep convection, a pres...

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

The National Space Weather Strategy: Policy on Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

Ensuring that the United States is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms is a priority to the President and to this Administration. We cannot ignore the potential impact space weather may have on key infrastructures and technologies including aviation and satellite operations, the electric power grid, and GPS applications. These technologies form the very backbone of the critical technology infrastructure we rely on for so much of what we do today. In October 2015, OSTP Director John Holdren announced the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan. The Strategy identifies goals and establishes the principles that will guide efforts to develop national space-weather preparedness in both the near and long term, while the Action Plan identifies specific activities, outcomes, and timelines that the Federal government must pursue to be prepared for and resilient to future space-weather events. The Strategy recognizes that observations are the backbone of forecast and warning capabilities. The Strategy also recognized that to achieve a robust operational program for space-weather observations, the United States must: (1) establish and sustain a foundational set of observations; (2) when feasible and cost effective, use data from multiple sources, including international, Federal, State, and local governments, as well as from the academic and industry sectors; (3) ensure the continuity of critical data sources; (4) continue to support sensors for solar and space physics research; (5) ensure data-assimilation techniques are in place; and (6) maintain archives for ground- and space-based data, which are essential for model development and benchmarking. In this talk we explore elements in the Space Weather Action Plan that will ensure our Nation has the information we need to enhance resilience to the risk of space weather.

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Power, Paula; Dye, Linda; Rudolph, Rocky

2008-01-01

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER Marine Forecasts in text form ) Coastal NWS Forecast Offices have regionally focused marine webpages which are overflowing with information such as coastal forecasts, predicted tides, and buoy observations

Aviation weather : FAA and the National Weather Service are considering plans to consolidate weather service offices, but face significant challenges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also pr...

National Maps - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

information, select area of interest and click on the image below. National Weather Outlook Northeast Michigan Boston and Surrounding Areas Western New York - Buffalo Northern Vermont and New York Southern Maine California and Northwestern Arizona - Las Vegas South Central California Los Angeles Area San Francisco Area

15 CFR Appendix A to Part 946 - National Weather Service Modernization Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false National Weather Service Modernization... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Pt. 946, App. A Appendix A to Part 946—National Weather Service Modernization Criteria I. Modernization Criteria for Actions Not...

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

Mining key elements for severe convection prediction based on CNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Pan, Ning; Zhang, Changan; Sha, Hongzhou; Zhang, Bolei; Liu, Liang; Zhang, Meng

2017-04-01

Severe convective weather is a kind of weather disasters accompanied by heavy rainfall, gust wind, hail, etc. Along with recent developments on remote sensing and numerical modeling, there are high-volume and long-term observational and modeling data accumulated to capture massive severe convective events over particular areas and time periods. With those high-volume and high-variety weather data, most of the existing studies and methods carry out the dynamical laws, cause analysis, potential rule study, and prediction enhancement by utilizing the governing equations from fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. In this study, a key-element mining method is proposed for severe convection prediction based on convolution neural network (CNN). It aims to identify the key areas and key elements from huge amounts of historical weather data including conventional measurements, weather radar, satellite, so as numerical modeling and/or reanalysis data. Under this manner, the machine-learning based method could help the human forecasters on their decision-making on operational weather forecasts on severe convective weathers by extracting key information from the real-time and historical weather big data. In this paper, it first utilizes computer vision technology to complete the data preprocessing work of the meteorological variables. Then, it utilizes the information such as radar map and expert knowledge to annotate all images automatically. And finally, by using CNN model, it cloud analyze and evaluate each weather elements (e.g., particular variables, patterns, features, etc.), and identify key areas of those critical weather elements, then help forecasters quickly screen out the key elements from huge amounts of observation data by current weather conditions. Based on the rich weather measurement and model data (up to 10 years) over Fujian province in China, where the severe convective weathers are very active during the summer months, experimental tests are conducted with

Overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonas, S.; Murtagh, W. J.; Clarke, S. W.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan identifies approximately 100 distinct activities across six strategic goals. Many of these activities depend on the identification of a series of benchmarks that describe the physical characteristics of space weather events on or near Earth. My talk will provide an overview of Goal 1 (Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events) of the National Space Weather Action Plan which will provide an introduction to the panel presentations and discussions.

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Radio network provides voice broadcasts of local and coastal marine forecasts on a continuous cycle. The forecasts are produced by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Coastal stations also broadcast

Verification of National Weather Service spot forecasts using surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, Matthew Robert

Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well as wildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. This open source software with online display capabilities is used to examine an extensive set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed from April 2009 through November 2013 nationwide. The forecast values are compared to the closest available surface observations at stations installed primarily for fire weather and aviation applications. The accuracy of the spot forecasts is compared to those available from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Spot forecasts for selected prescribed burns and wildfires are used to illustrate issues associated with the verification procedures. Cumulative statistics for National Weather Service County Warning Areas and for the nation are presented. Basic error and accuracy metrics for all available spot forecasts and the entire nation indicate that the skill of the spot forecasts is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature and the least improvement for maximum wind speed.

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and

National Maps - Alaska - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings current Forecast for Alaska is produced by the NWS Anchorage Forecast Office. It is updated daily Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

Partnerships form the basis for implementing a National Space Weather Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spann, James F.; Giles, Barbara L.

2017-08-01

The 2017 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held June 27, focused on the vital role of partnerships in order to establish an effective and successful national space weather program. Experts and users from the many government agencies, industry, academia, and policy makers gathered to discuss space weather impacts and mitigation strategies, the relevant services and supporting infrastructure, and the vital role cross-cutting partnerships must play for successful implementation of the National Space Weather Action Plan.

NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings prepares the Annual Flood Loss summary for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

Mission Statement - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

32 CFR 644.406 - Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather Service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... National Weather Service. 644.406 Section 644.406 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued... Property and Easement Interests § 644.406 Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather... similarly authorizes transfer of meteorological facilities, without charge, to the National Weather Service. ...

32 CFR 644.406 - Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather Service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... National Weather Service. 644.406 Section 644.406 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued... Property and Easement Interests § 644.406 Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather... similarly authorizes transfer of meteorological facilities, without charge, to the National Weather Service. ...

32 CFR 644.406 - Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather Service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... National Weather Service. 644.406 Section 644.406 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued... Property and Easement Interests § 644.406 Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather... similarly authorizes transfer of meteorological facilities, without charge, to the National Weather Service. ...

32 CFR 644.406 - Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather Service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... National Weather Service. 644.406 Section 644.406 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued... Property and Easement Interests § 644.406 Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather... similarly authorizes transfer of meteorological facilities, without charge, to the National Weather Service. ...

32 CFR 644.406 - Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather Service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... National Weather Service. 644.406 Section 644.406 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued... Property and Easement Interests § 644.406 Transfers to Secretary of Transportation and the National Weather... similarly authorizes transfer of meteorological facilities, without charge, to the National Weather Service. ...

Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in a North American scale convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaff, L.; Li, Y.; Prein, A. F.; Liu, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.

2017-12-01

A better representation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation is essential for the analysis of the energy balance and the water budget components such as runoff, evaporation and infiltration. Convection-permitting regional climate modeling (CPM) has been shown to improve the models' performance of summer precipitation, allowing to: (1) simulate the mesoscale processes in more detail and (2) to provide more insights in future changes in convective precipitation under climate change. In this work we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) in simulating the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over most of North America. We use 4 km horizontal grid spacing in a 13-years long current and future period. The future scenario is assuming no significant changes in large-scale weather patterns and aims to answer how the weather of the current climate would change if it would reoccur at the end of the century under a high-end emission scenario (Pseudo Global Warming). We emphasize on a region centered on the lee side of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, where the summer precipitation amount shows a regional maximum. The historical simulations are capable to correctly represent the diurnal cycle. At the lee-side of the Canadian Rockies the increase in the convective available potential energy as well as pronounced low-level moisture flux from the southeast Prairies explains the local maximum in summer precipitation. The PGW scenario shows an increase in summer precipitation amount and intensity in this region, consistently with a stronger source of moisture and convective energy.

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

2014-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; McNally, David; Morando, Alexander; Clymer, Alexis; Lock, Jennifer; Petersen, Julien

2014-01-01

Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

National Weatherization Assistance Program Characterization - Describing the Pre-ARRA Progam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bensch, Ingo; Keene, Ashleigh; Cowan, Claire

2014-09-01

This report characterizes the Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) as it was administered in Program Year 2008. WAP has supported energy efficiency improvements to the homes of low-income households in the United States since 1976. The program provides grants, guidance, and other support to grantees: weatherization programs administered by each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia and some Native American tribes. Although there have been studies of some grantee-administered weatherization programs, the overall effectiveness of the national weatherization program has not been formally evaluated since Program Year 1989. Since that time, the program has evolvedmore » significantly, with an increased focus on baseload electric usage, continued evolution of diagnostic tools, new guidelines and best practices for heating-related measures, and adjustments in program rules. More recently, the program has also adjusted to large, temporary funding increases and changes in federal rules spurred by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Because the Weatherization Assistance Program of today is dramatically different from the one evaluated in 1989, DOE determined to undertake a new comprehensive evaluation of the national program. This new national evaluation is managed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Under a competitive solicitation process, ORNL selected APPRISE, Inc., Blasnik & Associates, Dalhoff Associates and the Energy Center of Wisconsin to conduct the evaluation. The national evaluation comprises two independent evaluations. The first evaluation of which this report is a part focuses on Program Year 2008 (PY08). The second evaluation focuses on the ARRA-funded years of 2009 through 2011. This report, together with its companion the Eligible Population Study addresses specific program characterization goals established for the greater evaluation. The Energy Center led grantee and subgrantee data collection efforts

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

2015-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blondin, Debra

2016-04-01

Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

2012-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer

Great Lakes Maps - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Forecast System) Waves (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) Ice Cover (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) NOAA's National Weather Service Central Region Headquarters Regional Office 7220

National Weather Service Marine Forecasts - FAQ

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding marine coastal areas may be found in Appendix B of the National Ocean Service's Coast Pilot's, volumes 1 Advisory (SCA): An advisory issued by coastal and Great Lakes Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) for areas

National Weather Service - Strategic Planning and Policy

Science.gov Websites

Policy ATTN: W/SP 1325 East-West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910-3283 Phone: (301) 713-0258; Fax: (301 Administration National Weather Service Strategic Planning and Policy Office 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring

Shallow-to-Deep Convection Transition over Land: Atmospheric and surface controls inferred from long-term ground-based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Klein, S. A.

2016-12-01

Warm-season decade-long observations are used to investigate mechanisms controlling the transition from shallow to deep convection over land. The data are from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains site. The study focuses on two questions: 1) what environmental parameters differ between the two convective regimes: fair-weather shallow cumulus versus late-afternoon deep convection, especially in the late morning a few hours before deep convection begins? And 2) Do convective regimes such as fair-weather shallow cumulus and late-afternoon deep convection have any preferences over soil moisture conditions (dry or wet) and soil moisture heterogeneities? It is found that a more humid environment immediately above the boundary layer is present before the start of late afternoon heavy precipitation events. Greater boundary layer inhomogeneity in moist static energy, temperature, moisture, and horizontal wind before precipitation begins is correlated to larger rain rates at the initial stage of precipitation. Late-afternoon deep convection tends to prefer drier soil conditions with larger surface heterogeneity. This observational study helps our understanding of convective responses to different environmental factors especially surface versus atmospheric controls. This work leads to the establishment of composite cases of different continental convective regimes for large-eddy simulations and single-column tests of climate model parameterizations. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-698972

Toward a Unified Representation of Atmospheric Convection in Variable-Resolution Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walko, Robert

2016-11-07

The purpose of this project was to improve the representation of convection in atmospheric weather and climate models that employ computational grids with spatially-variable resolution. Specifically, our work targeted models whose grids are fine enough over selected regions that convection is resolved explicitly, while over other regions the grid is coarser and convection is represented as a subgrid-scale process. The working criterion for a successful scheme for representing convection over this range of grid resolution was that identical convective environments must produce very similar convective responses (i.e., the same precipitation amount, rate, and timing, and the same modification of themore » atmospheric profile) regardless of grid scale. The need for such a convective scheme has increased in recent years as more global weather and climate models have adopted variable resolution meshes that are often extended into the range of resolving convection in selected locations.« less

Strong convective storm nowcasting using a hybrid approach of convolutional neural network and hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei

2018-04-01

Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.

Extraction of convective cloud parameters from Doppler Weather Radar MAX(Z) product using Image Processing Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunachalam, M. S.; Puli, Anil; Anuradha, B.

2016-07-01

In the present work continuous extraction of convective cloud optical information and reflectivity (MAX(Z) in dBZ) using online retrieval technique for time series data production from Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) located at Indian Meteorological Department, Chennai has been developed in MATLAB. Reflectivity measurements for different locations within the DWR range of 250 Km radii of circular disc area can be retrieved using this technique. It gives both time series reflectivity of point location and also Range Time Intensity (RTI) maps of reflectivity for the corresponding location. The Graphical User Interface (GUI) developed for the cloud reflectivity is user friendly; it also provides the convective cloud optical information such as cloud base height (CBH), cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD). This technique is also applicable for retrieving other DWR products such as Plan Position Indicator (Z, in dBZ), Plan Position Indicator (Z, in dBZ)-Close Range, Volume Velocity Processing (V, in knots), Plan Position Indicator (V, in m/s), Surface Rainfall Intensity (SRI, mm/hr), Precipitation Accumulation (PAC) 24 hrs at 0300UTC. Keywords: Reflectivity, cloud top height, cloud base, cloud optical depth

The National Space Weather Program: Two decades of interagency partnership and accomplishments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonadonna, Michael; Lanzerotti, Louis; Stailey, Judson

2017-01-01

This paper describes the development of the United States National Space Weather Program (NSWP) from early interests in space environmental phenomena and their impact through the culmination of the program in 2015. Over its 21 year run, the NSWP facilitated substantial improvements in the capabilities of Federal Space Weather services and fostered broad and enduring partnerships with industry and the academic community within the U.S. and internationally. Under the management of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research a coalition of 10 federal agencies worked together from 1994 to 2015 to advance the national space weather enterprise. The paper describes key events and accomplishments of the NSWP interagency partnership while recognizing the great achievements made by the individual agencies. In order to provide context, the paper also discusses several important events outside the NSWP purview. Some of these external events influenced the course of the NSWP, while others were encouraged by the NSWP partnership. Following the establishment of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Task Force of the National Science and Technology Council in the White House and the deactivation of the NSWP Council, the agencies now play a supporting role in the national effort as the federal engagement in the National Space Weather Partnership graduates to a higher level.

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrieved Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle M.; Zavodsky, T.; Jedloved, Gary J.

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One operational forecast challenge is forecasting convective weather in data-void regions such as large bodies of water (e.g. Gulf of Mexico). To address this forecast challenge, SPoRT produces a twice-daily three-dimensional analysis that blends a model first-guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -- a hyperspectral sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific land-based locations. Comparing the AIRS analysis product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value of the retrieved profiles to situational awareness for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. In an attempt to verify that the AIRS analysis was a good representation of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, both the AIRS and control analyses are compared to a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used by operational forecasters. Using guidance from operational forecasters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) was determined to be a vital variable in making convective forecasts and is used herein to demonstrate the utility of the AIRS profiles in changing the vertical

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Elmer, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar

2004-01-01

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range

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Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Paul W.; Mote, Thomas L.

2018-04-01

Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only non-severe WFTs and, additionally, only a small proportion of individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty-one near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeastern United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative odds of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from non-severe WFT days are highlighted.Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VTs) and total totals (TTs), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from non-severe WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6 and 25.1 °C or TTs between 46.5 and 47.3 °C, odds of severe-wind days were roughly 5 × greater. Meanwhile, odds of severe-hail days became roughly 10 × greater when VTs exceeded 24.4-26.0 °C or TTs exceeded 46.3-49.2 °C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

Convective dynamics - Panel report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carbone, Richard; Foote, G. Brant; Moncrieff, Mitch; Gal-Chen, Tzvi; Cotton, William; Heymsfield, Gerald

1990-01-01

Aspects of highly organized forms of deep convection at midlatitudes are reviewed. Past emphasis in field work and cloud modeling has been directed toward severe weather as evidenced by research on tornadoes, hail, and strong surface winds. A number of specific issues concerning future thrusts, tactics, and techniques in convective dynamics are presented. These subjects include; convective modes and parameterization, global structure and scale interaction, convective energetics, transport studies, anvils and scale interaction, and scale selection. Also discussed are analysis workshops, four-dimensional data assimilation, matching models with observations, network Doppler analyses, mesoscale variability, and high-resolution/high-performance Doppler. It is also noted, that, classical surface measurements and soundings, flight-level research aircraft data, passive satellite data, and traditional photogrammetric studies are examples of datasets that require assimilation and integration.

Land surface modeling in convection permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Heerwaarden, Chiel; Benedict, Imme

2017-04-01

The next generation of weather and climate models permits convection, albeit at a grid spacing that is not sufficient to resolve all details of the clouds. Whereas much attention is being devoted to the correct simulation of convective clouds and associated precipitation, the role of the land surface has received far less interest. In our view, convective permitting simulations pose a set of problems that need to be solved before accurate weather and climate prediction is possible. The heart of the problem lies at the direct runoff and at the nonlinearity of the surface stress as a function of soil moisture. In coarse resolution simulations, where convection is not permitted, precipitation that reaches the land surface is uniformly distributed over the grid cell. Subsequently, a fraction of this precipitation is intercepted by vegetation or leaves the grid cell via direct runoff, whereas the remainder infiltrates into the soil. As soon as we move to convection permitting simulations, this precipitation falls often locally in large amounts. If the same land-surface model is used as in simulations with parameterized convection, this leads to an increase in direct runoff. Furthermore, spatially non-uniform infiltration leads to a very different surface stress, when scaled up to the course resolution of simulations without convection. Based on large-eddy simulation of realistic convection events at a large domain, this study presents a quantification of the errors made at the land surface in convection permitting simulation. It compares the magnitude of the errors to those made in the convection itself due to the coarse resolution of the simulation. We find that, convection permitting simulations have less evaporation than simulations with parameterized convection, resulting in a non-realistic drying of the atmosphere. We present solutions to resolve this problem.

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: an assessment of citizen scientist weather observations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The National Eclipse Weather Experiment (NEWEx) was a citizen science project designed to assess the effects of the 20 March 2015 partial solar eclipse on the weather over the United Kingdom (UK). NEWEx had two principal objectives: to provide a spatial network of meteorological observations across the UK to aid the investigation of eclipse-induced weather changes, and to develop a nationwide public engagement activity-based participation of citizen scientists. In total, NEWEx collected 15 606 observations of air temperature, cloudiness and wind speed and direction from 309 locations across the UK, over a 3 h window spanning the eclipse period. The headline results were processed in near real time, immediately published online, and featured in UK national press articles on the day of the eclipse. Here, we describe the technical development of NEWEx and how the observations provided by the citizen scientists were analysed. By comparing the results of the NEWEx analyses with results from other investigations of the same eclipse using different observational networks, including measurements from the University of Reading’s Atmospheric Observatory, we demonstrate that NEWEx provided a fair representation of the change in the UK meteorological conditions throughout the eclipse. Despite the simplicity of the approach adopted, robust reductions in both temperature and wind speed during the eclipse were observed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’. PMID:27550767

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Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Huang, Bohua; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.

2017-06-01

This letter explored the influence of atmospheric convection scheme on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions using a set of hindcast experiments. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the Climate Forecast System version 2 is used for 12 month hindcasts starting from each April during 1982-2011. The hindcast experiments are repeated with three atmospheric convection schemes. All three hindcasts apply the identical initialization with ocean initial conditions taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and atmosphere/land initial states from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessments indicate a substantial sensitivity of the sea surface temperature prediction skill to the different convection schemes, particularly over the eastern tropical Pacific. For the Niño 3.4 index, the anomaly correlation skill can differ by 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. Long-term simulations are further conducted with the three convection schemes to understand the differences in prediction skill. By conducting heat budget analyses for the mixed-layer temperature anomalies, it is suggested that the convection scheme having the highest skill simulates stronger and more realistic coupled feedbacks related to ENSO. Particularly, the strength of the Ekman pumping feedback is better represented, which is traced to more realistic simulation of surface wind stress. Our results imply that improving the mean state simulations in coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model (e.g., ameliorating the Intertropical Convergence Zone simulation) might further improve our ENSO prediction capability.

Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective

Weather information network including graphical display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leger, Daniel R. (Inventor); Burdon, David (Inventor); Son, Robert S. (Inventor); Martin, Kevin D. (Inventor); Harrison, John (Inventor); Hughes, Keith R. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

An apparatus for providing weather information onboard an aircraft includes a processor unit and a graphical user interface. The processor unit processes weather information after it is received onboard the aircraft from a ground-based source, and the graphical user interface provides a graphical presentation of the weather information to a user onboard the aircraft. Preferably, the graphical user interface includes one or more user-selectable options for graphically displaying at least one of convection information, turbulence information, icing information, weather satellite information, SIGMET information, significant weather prognosis information, and winds aloft information.

A Generalized Simple Formulation of Convective Adjustment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective adjustment timescale (τ) for cumulus clouds is one of the most influential parameters controlling parameterized convective precipitation in climate and weather simulation models at global and regional scales. Due to the complex nature of deep convection, a prescribed value or ad hoc representation of τ is used in most global and regional climate/weather models making it a tunable parameter and yet still resulting in uncertainties in convective precipitation simulations. In this work, a generalized simple formulation of τ for use in any convection parameterization for shallow and deep clouds is developed to reduce convective precipitation biases at different grid spacing. Unlike existing other methods, our new formulation can be used with field campaign measurements to estimate τ as demonstrated by using data from two different special field campaigns. Then, we implemented our formulation into a regional model (WRF) for testing and evaluation. Results indicate that our simple τ formulation can give realistic temporal and spatial variations of τ across continental U.S. as well as grid-scale and subgrid scale precipitation. We also found that as the grid spacing decreases (e.g., from 36 to 4-km grid spacing), grid-scale precipitation dominants over subgrid-scale precipitation. The generalized τ formulation works for various types of atmospheric conditions (e.g., continental clouds due to heating and large-scale forcing over la

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny

2008-01-01

In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

Training General Aviation Pilots for Convective Weather Situations.

PubMed

Blickensderfer, Elizabeth L; Lanicci, John M; Vincent, Michael J; Thomas, Robert L; Smith, MaryJo; Cruit, Jessica K

2015-10-01

Over the past 10-15 yr, considerable research has occurred for the development, testing, and fielding of real-time Datalink weather products for general aviation (GA) pilots to use before and during flight. As is the case with the implementation of most new technologies, work is needed to ensure that the users (in this case, the pilots) understand both the capabilities and limitations of the new technologies as well as how to use the new systems to improve their task performance. The purpose of this study was to replicate and extend a previous study on training pilots how and when to use these new weather technologies. This field study used a quasi-experimental design (pre- vs. post-test with a control group). There were 91 GA pilots from the Midwest, Northeastern, and Southeastern United States who participated in a 2-h short course or a control activity. The lecture-based short course covered radar basics, Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), NEXRAD specifics/limitations, thunderstorm basics, radar products, and decision making. The pilots who participated in the course earned higher knowledge test scores, improved at applying the concepts in paper-based flight scenarios, had higher self-efficacy in post-training assessments as compared to pre-training assessments, and also performed better than did control subjects on post-test knowledge and skills assessments. GA pilots lack knowledge about real-time Datalink weather technology. This study indicates that a relatively short training program was effective for fostering Datalink weather-related knowledge and skills in GA pilots.

National Space Weather Program Releases Strategy for the New Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2010-12-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency program established by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) in 1995 to coordinate, collaborate, and leverage capabilities across stakeholder agencies, including space weather researchers, service providers, users, policy makers, and funding agencies, to improve the performance of the space weather enterprise for the United States and its international partners. Two important documents released in recent months have established a framework and the vision, goals, and strategy to move the enterprise forward in the next decade. The U.S. federal agency members of the NSWP include the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, plus NASA, the National Science Foundation, and observers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OFCM is also working with the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to formally join the program.

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Elmer, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Observing convection with satellite, radar, and lightning measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Ulrich; Nisi, Luca; Clementi, Lorenzo; Ventura, Jordi Figueras i.; Gabella, Marco; Hering, Alessandro M.; Sideris, Ioannis; Trefalt, Simona; Germann, Urs

2015-04-01

Heavy precipitation, hail, and wind gusts are the fundamental meteorological hazards associated with strong convection and thunderstorms. The thread is particularly severe in mountainous areas, e.g. it is estimated that on average between 50% and 80% of all weather-related damage in Switzerland is caused by strong thunderstorms (Hilker et al., 2010). Intense atmospheric convection is governed by processes that range from the synoptic to the microphysical scale and are considered to be one of the most challenging and difficult weather phenomena to predict. Even though numerical weather prediction models have some skills to predict convection, in general the exact location of the convective initialization and its propagation cannot be forecasted by these models with sufficient precision. Hence, there is a strong interest to improve the short-term forecast by using statistical, object oriented and/or heuristic nowcasting methods. MeteoSwiss has developed several operational nowcasting systems for this purpose such as TRT (Hering, 2008) and COALITION (Nisi, 2014). In this contribution we analyze the typical development of convection using measurements of the Swiss C-band Dual Polarization Doppler weather radar network, the MSG SEVIRI satellite, and the Météorage lighting network. The observations are complemented with the analysis and forecasts of the COSMO model. Special attention is given to the typical evolutionary stages like the pre-convective environment, convective initiation, cloud top glaciation, start, maximum, and end of precipitation and lightning activity. The pre-convective environment is examined using instability indices derived from SEVIRI observations and the COSMO forecasts. During the early development satellite observations are used to observe the rise of the cloud top, the growth of the cloud droplet or crystals, and the glaciation of the cloud top. SEVIRI brightness temperatures, channel differences, and temporal trends as suggested by

Understanding the Geographic Controls of Hazardous Convective Weather Environments in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, K. A.; Chavas, D. R.

2017-12-01

Hazardous Convective Weather (HCW), such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, poses significant risk to life and property in the United States every year. While these HCW events are small scale, they develop principally within favorable larger-scale environments (i.e., HCW environments). Why these large-scale environments are confined to specific regions, particularly the Eastern United States, is not well understood. This can, in part, be related to a limited fundamental knowledge of how the climate system creates HCW environment, which provides uncertainty in how HCW environments may be altered in a changing climate. Previous research has identified the Gulf of Mexico to the south and elevated terrain upstream as key geographic contributors to the generation of HCW environments over the Eastern United States. This work investigates the relative role of these geographic features through "component denial" experiments in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). In particular, CAM5 simulations where topography is removed (globally and regionally) and/or the Gulf of Mexico is converted to land is compared to a CAM5 control simulation of current climate following the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols. In addition to exploring differences in general characteristics of the large-scale environments amongst the experiments, HCW changes will be explored through a combination of high shear and high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) environments. Preliminary work suggests that the removal of elevated terrain reduces the inland extent of HCW environments in the United States, but not the existence of these events altogether. This indicates that topography is crucial for inland HCW environments but perhaps not for their existence in general (e.g., near the Gulf of Mexico). This initial work is a crucial first step to building a reduced-complexity framework within CAM5 to quantify how land-ocean contrast and elevated terrain control

Ten Year Analysis of Tropopause-Overshooting Convection Using GridRad Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooney, John W.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Homeyer, Cameron R.; Fenske, Tyler M.

2018-01-01

Convection that penetrates the tropopause (overshooting convection) rapidly transports air from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere, potentially mixing air between the two layers. This exchange of air can have a substantial impact on the composition, radiation, and chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In order to improve our understanding of the role convection plays in the transport of trace gases across the tropopause, this study presents a 10 year analysis of overshooting convection for the eastern two thirds of the contiguous United States for March through August of 2004 to 2013 based on radar observations. Echo top altitudes are estimated at hourly intervals using high-resolution, three-dimensional, gridded, radar reflectivity fields created by merging observations from available radars in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network. Overshooting convection is identified by comparing echo top altitudes with tropopause altitudes derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is found that overshooting convection is most common in the central United States, with a weak secondary maximum along the southeast coast. The maximum number of overshooting events occur consistently between 2200 and 0200 UTC. Most overshooting events occur in May, June, and July when convection is deepest and the tropopause altitude is relatively low. Approximately 45% of the analyzed overshooting events (those with echo tops at least 1 km above the tropopause) have echo tops extending above the 380 K level into the stratospheric overworld.

Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

2018-03-01

There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Kozlowski, Danielle; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along

Shenandoah National Park Phenology Project-Weather data collection, description, and processing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Aiello, Danielle P.; Osborne, Jesse D.

2010-01-01

The weather data described in this document are being collected as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study of changes in Shenandoah National Park (SNP) landscape phenology (Jones and Osbourne, 2008). Phenology is the study of the timing of biological events, such as annual plant flowering and seasonal bird migration. These events are partially driven by changes in temperature and precipitation; therefore, phenology studies how these events may reflect changes in climate. Landscape phenology is the study of changes in biological events over broad areas and assemblages of vegetation. To study climate-change relations over broad areas (at landscape scale), the timing and amount of annual tree leaf emergence, maximum foliage, and leaf fall for forested areas are of interest. To better link vegetation changes with climate, weather data are necessary. This report documents weather-station data collection and processing procedures used in the Shenandoah National Park Phenology Project.

Assimilating every-30-second 100-m-mesh radar observations for convective weather: implications to non-Gaussian PDF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, T.; Teramura, T.; Ruiz, J.; Kondo, K.; Lien, G. Y.

2016-12-01

Convective weather is known to be highly nonlinear and chaotic, and it is hard to predict their location and timing precisely. Our Big Data Assimilation (BDA) effort has been exploring to use dense and frequent observations to avoid non-Gaussian probability density function (PDF) and to apply an ensemble Kalman filter under the Gaussian error assumption. The phased array weather radar (PAWR) can observe a dense three-dimensional volume scan with 100-m range resolution and 100 elevation angles in only 30 seconds. The BDA system assimilates the PAWR reflectivity and Doppler velocity observations every 30 seconds into 100 ensemble members of storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at 100-m grid spacing. The 30-second-update, 100-m-mesh BDA system has been quite successful in multiple case studies of local severe rainfall events. However, with 1000 ensemble members, the reduced-resolution BDA system at 1-km grid spacing showed significant non-Gaussian PDF with every-30-second updates. With a 10240-member ensemble Kalman filter with a global NWP model at 112-km grid spacing, we found roughly 1000 members satisfactory to capture the non-Gaussian error structures. With these in mind, we explore how the density of observations in space and time affects the non-Gaussianity in an ensemble Kalman filter with a simple toy model. In this presentation, we will present the most up-to-date results of the BDA research, as well as the investigation with the toy model on the non-Gaussianity with dense and frequent observations.

NOAA Photo Library - Historical National Weather Service Collection

Science.gov Websites

weather and climate services to our nation. We hope you enjoy these snapshots of the heritage of the Collections page. Takes you to the search page. Takes you to the Links page. collage banner showing clouds with images of scientific accomplishment, technological innovation and community service. The photos in

An Overview of the National Weather Service National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Feng, X.; Karsten, L. R.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP), in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) recently implemented version 1.0 of the National Water Model (NWM) into operations. This model is an hourly cycling uncoupled analysis and forecast system that provides streamflow for 2.7 million river reaches and other hydrologic information on 1km and 250m grids. It will provide complementary hydrologic guidance at current NWS river forecast locations and significantly expand guidance coverage and type in underserved locations. The core of this system is the NCAR-supported community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic model. It ingests forcing from a variety of sources including Multi-Sensor Multi-Radar (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), Rapid Refresh (RAP), Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast data. WRF-Hydro is configured to use the Noah-Multi Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate land surface processes. Separate water routing modules perform diffusive wave surface routing and saturated subsurface flow routing on a 250m grid, and Muskingum-Cunge channel routing down National Hydrogaphy Dataset Plus V2 (NHDPlusV2) stream reaches. River analyses and forecasts are provided across a domain encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS) and hydrologically contributing areas, while land surface output is available on a larger domain that extends beyond the CONUS into Canada and Mexico (roughly from latitude 19N to 58N). The system includes an analysis and assimilation configuration along with three forecast configurations. These include a short-range 15 hour deterministic forecast, a medium-Range 10 day deterministic forecast and a long-range 30 day 16-member ensemble forecast. United Sates Geologic Survey (USGS) streamflow

Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Bullock, Randy; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn

2017-10-01

Deep convection is a key process in the climate system and the main source of precipitation in the tropics, subtropics, and mid-latitudes during summer. Furthermore, it is related to high impact weather causing floods, hail, tornadoes, landslides, and other hazards. State-of-the-art climate models have to parameterize deep convection due to their coarse grid spacing. These parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty and long-standing model biases. We present a North American scale convection-permitting climate simulation that is able to explicitly simulate deep convection due to its 4-km grid spacing. We apply a feature-tracking algorithm to detect hourly precipitation from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the model and compare it with radar-based precipitation estimates east of the US Continental Divide. The simulation is able to capture the main characteristics of the observed MCSs such as their size, precipitation rate, propagation speed, and lifetime within observational uncertainties. In particular, the model is able to produce realistically propagating MCSs, which was a long-standing challenge in climate modeling. However, the MCS frequency is significantly underestimated in the central US during late summer. We discuss the origin of this frequency biases and suggest strategies for model improvements.

Convective Radio Occultations Final Campaign Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biondi, R.

2016-03-01

Deep convective systems are destructive weather phenomena that annually cause many deaths and injuries as well as much damage, thereby accounting for major economic losses in several countries. The number and intensity of such phenomena have increased over the last decades in some areas of the globe. Damage is mostly caused by strong winds and heavy rain parameters that are strongly connected to the structure of the particular storm. Convection over land is usually stronger and deeper than over the ocean and some convective systems, known as supercells, also develop tornadoes through processes that remain mostly unclear. The intensity forecastmore » and monitoring of convective systems is one of the major challenges for meteorology because in situ measurements during extreme events are too sparse or unreliable and most ongoing satellite missions do not provide suitable time/space coverage.« less

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

PubMed

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-11-01

Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010. This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-11-01

Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010. This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.

ARM - Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds

DOE Data Explorer

Jensen, Mike; Bartholomew, Mary Jane; Genio, Anthony Del; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

2012-01-19

Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth's energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and their link to the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of convective processes in numerical models is vital towards improving current and future simulations of Earths climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales important to convective processes and therefore must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, parameterization schemes in cloud-resolving models need to be evaluated for their generality and application to a variety of atmospheric conditions. Data from field campaigns with appropriate forcing descriptors have been traditionally used by modelers for evaluating and improving parameterization schemes.

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

1980-12-01

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

2017-06-01

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

The Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the National Weather Service: An Overview.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friday, Elbert W., Jr.

1994-01-01

The scientific understanding of the atmosphere and the ability to forecast large-and small-scale hydrometeorological phenomena have increased dramatically over the last two decades. As a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has set an ambitious goal: to modernize the National Weather Service (NWS)through the deployment of proven observational, information processing, and communications technologies, and to establish an associated cost-effective operational structure. The modernization and associated restructuring of the NWS will assure that the major advances that have been made in our ability to observe and understand the atmosphere are applied to the practical problems of providing atmospheric and hydrologic services to the nation. Implementation and practice of the new science will improve forecasts, provide more reliable detection of and warnings for severe weather and flooding, achieve more uniform hydrometeorological services across the nation, permit a more cost-effective NWS, and increase productivity among NWS employees. The changes proposed by the NWS will allow increased productivity and efficiency for any entity dependent on weather information, including local, state, and federal government agencies; researchers; private-sector meteorologists; private industry; and resource management organizations. This is the first in a series of articles intended to highlight these changes.

Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Purdom, J. F. W.

1984-01-01

How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

Examining Chaotic Convection with Super-Parameterization Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Todd R.

This study investigates a variety of features present in a new configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) variant, SP-CAM 2.0. The new configuration (multiple-parameterization-CAM, MP-CAM) changes the manner in which the super-parameterization (SP) concept represents physical tendency feedbacks to the large-scale by using the mean of 10 independent two-dimensional cloud-permitting model (CPM) curtains in each global model column instead of the conventional single CPM curtain. The climates of the SP and MP configurations are examined to investigate any significant differences caused by the application of convective physical tendencies that are more deterministic in nature, paying particular attention to extreme precipitation events and large-scale weather systems, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A number of small but significant changes in the mean state climate are uncovered, and it is found that the new formulation degrades MJO performance. Despite these deficiencies, the ensemble of possible realizations of convective states in the MP configuration allows for analysis of uncertainty in the small-scale solution, lending to examination of those weather regimes and physical mechanisms associated with strong, chaotic convection. Methods of quantifying precipitation predictability are explored, and use of the most reliable of these leads to the conclusion that poor precipitation predictability is most directly related to the proximity of the global climate model column state to atmospheric critical points. Secondarily, the predictability is tied to the availability of potential convective energy, the presence of mesoscale convective organization on the CPM grid, and the directive power of the large-scale.

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

NEW TRAINING PARADIGM IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LeRoy Spayd Chief, Training Division NOAA/National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spayd, L. E.

2012-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) implemented a new Learning Management System (LMS) in June 2007 as part of a Department of Commerce (DOC)-wide Learning Center (CLC). One of the key goals of this LMS was to provide accessible, low-cost training to develop and sustain a world-class NOAA workforce. Five years of training records have been analyzed for trends and accomplishments have been summarized. The NWS leads the entire DOC in usage of this LMS. NWS workforce of 4500 employees complete over 50,000 courses per year and account for over 40% of DOC completions even though the NWS represents only 12% of the users. This paper will highlight the lessons learned in implementing training in a diverse and widespread organization. The paper will also highlight the critical role of management engagement in setting expectations for training and education which resulted in service improvements to the public. This paper also address future training trends as the NWS moves forward in implementing NOAA's Strategic Plan to make this country a WeatherReady Nation. A mix of how synchronous/asynchronous and classroom/on-line/hybrid learning options is explained.;

The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-11-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

Heavy rain forecasts in mesoscale convective system in July 2016 in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapo, Palina; Barodka, Siarhei; Krasouski, Aliaksandr

2017-04-01

During the last decade, the frequency of severe weather phenomena, such as heavy precipitation, hail and squalls, over Europe is observed to increase, which is attributed to climate change in the region. Such hazardous weather events over the territory of Belarus every year, having significant economic and social effects. Of special interest for further studies are mesoscale convective systems, which can be described as long-lived cloud complexes including groups of cumulonimbus clouds and squall lines. Passage of such systems is accompanied with intense thunderstorms, showers and squally wind. In this study, we investigate a case of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) passage over the territory of Belarus, which occurred 13 July 2016. During this Mesoscale Convective Complex passage, heavy precipitation (up to 43 mm), squally winds and intense thunderstorms have been observed. Another feature of this MCS was the hook-shaped weather radar signature known as a "hook echo", seen on the Doppler weather radar Minsk-2. Tornadoes and powerful mesocyclones are often characterized by the presence of a hook echo on radar. Also we have performed simulations of the convective complex passage with the WRF-ARW mesoscale atmospheric modelling system using 6 different microphysics parameterizations. Our main objectives are to study the conditions of this Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) development, to consider the microphysical structure of clouds in the MCS, and to identify which microphysics package provides the best forecast of precipitation for this case of MCS in terms of its geographical distribution and precipitation amount in towns and cities where highest levels of precipitation have been observed. We present analysis of microphysical structure of this MCS along with evaluation of precipitation forecasts obtained with different microphysics parametrizations as compared to real observational data. In particular, we may note that results of almost all microphysics

Algorithms for the analysis and characterization of convective structures relative to extreme rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatino, Pietro; Fedele, Giuseppe; Procopio, Antonio; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Gabriele, Salvatore

2016-10-01

Among many weather phenomena, convective storms are one of the most dangerous since they are able to cause, in a relatively small time window, great damages. Convective precipitations are in fact characterized by relatively small spatial and temporal scales, and as a consequence, the task of forecasting such phenomena turns out to be an elusive one. Nonetheless, given their dangerousness, the identification and tracking of meteorological convective systems are of paramount importance and are the subject of several studies. In particular, the early detection of the areas where deep convection is about to appear, and the prediction of the development and path of existing convective thunderstorms represent two focal research topics. The aim of the present work is to outline a framework employing various techniques apt to the task of monitoring and characterization of convective clouds. We analyze meteorological satellite images and data in order to evaluate the potential occurring of strong precipitation. Techniques considered include numerical, machine learning, image processing. The techniques are tested on data coming from real convective events captured in the last years on the Italian peninsula by the Meteosat meteorological satellites and weather radar.

A New Mechanism for the Dependence of Tropical Convection on Free-Tropospheric Humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virman, M.; Bister, M.; Sinclair, V. A.; Järvinen, H.; Räisänen, J.

2018-03-01

Atmospheric deep convection is responsible for transport of the most important greenhouse gas, water vapor, to the free-troposphere and for most of the precipitation on Earth. Observations show that deep convection is strongly sensitive to the amount of moisture in the low-to-midtroposphere. The current understanding is that this sensitivity is due to entrainment. In this study, it is found that over tropical oceans shallow warm anomalies, likely strong enough to hinder subsequent convection, are observed just above the boundary layer after precipitation, but only where the low-to-midtroposphere is dry. The results, showing a cold anomaly above the warm anomaly, suggest that evaporation of stratiform precipitation and subsidence warming below likely cause these temperature anomalies. Evaporation of stratiform precipitation should therefore be a topic of high priority for developing more realistic theories of convective weather phenomena and for improving climate and weather forecast models.

Sun-Burned: Space Weather's Impact on United States National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stebbins, B.

2014-12-01

The heightened media attention surrounding the 2013-14 solar maximum presented an excellent opportunity to examine the ever-increasing vulnerability of US national security and its Department of Defense to space weather. This vulnerability exists for three principal reasons: 1) a massive US space-based infrastructure; 2) an almost exclusive reliance on an aging and stressed continental US power grid; and 3) a direct dependence upon a US economy adapted to the conveniences of space and uninterrupted power. I tailored my research and work for the national security policy maker and military strategists in an endeavor to initiate and inform a substantive dialogue on America's preparation for, and response to, a major solar event that would severely degrade core national security capabilities, such as military operations. Significant risk to the Department of Defense exists from powerful events that could impact its space-based infrastructure and even the terrestrial power grid. Given this ever-present and increasing risk to the United States, my work advocates raising the issue of space weather and its impacts to the level of a national security threat. With the current solar cycle having already peaked and the next projected solar maximum just a decade away, the government has a relatively small window to make policy decisions that prepare the nation and its Defense Department to mitigate impacts from these potentially catastrophic phenomena.

Analysis of Summertime Convective Initiation in Central Alabama Using the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Robert S.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

During the summer months in the southeastern United States, convective initiation presents a frequent challenge to operational forecasters. Thunderstorm development has traditionally been referred to as random due to their disorganized, sporadic appearance and lack of atmospheric forcing. Horizontal variations in land surface characteristics such as soil moisture, soil type, land and vegetation cover could possibly be a focus mechanism for afternoon convection during the summer months. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a stand-alone land surface modeling framework that incorporates these varying soil and vegetation properties, antecedent precipitation, and atmospheric forcing to represent the soil state at high resolution. The use of LIS as a diagnostic tool may help forecasters to identify boundaries in land surface characteristics that could correlate to favored regions of convection initiation. The NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) team has been collaborating with the National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, AL to help incorporate LIS products into their operational forecasting methods. This paper highlights selected convective case dates from summer 2009 when synoptic forcing was weak, and identifies any boundaries in land surface characteristics that may have contributed to convective initiation. The LIS output depicts the effects of increased sensible heat flux from urban areas on the development of convection, as well as convection along gradients in land surface characteristics and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These features may promote mesoscale circulations and/or feedback processes that can either enhance or inhibit convection. With this output previously unavailable to operational forecasters, LIS provides a new tool to forecasters in order to help eliminate the randomness of summertime convective initiation.

Hazard mitigation with cloud model based rainfall and convective data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernowo, R.; Adi, K.; Yulianto, T.; Seniyatis, S.; Yatunnisa, A. A.

2018-05-01

Heavy rain in Semarang 15 January 2013 causes flood. It is related to dynamic of weather’s parameter, especially with convection process, clouds and rainfall data. In this case, weather condition analysis uses Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used to analyze. Some weather’s parameters show significant result. Their fluctuations prove there is a strong convection that produces convective cloud (Cumulonimbus). Nesting and 2 domains on WRF model show good output to represent weather’s condition commonly. The results of this study different between output cloud cover rate of observation result and output of model around 6-12 hours is because spinning-up of processing. Satellite Images of MTSAT (Multifunctional Transport Satellite) are used as a verification data to prove the result of WRF. White color of satellite image is Coldest Dark Grey (CDG) that indicates there is cloud’s top. This image consolidates that the output of WRF is good enough to analyze Semarang’s condition when the case happened.

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Mark; Boisvert, Ben; Escala, Diego

2009-01-01

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic

Finding past weather...Fast - Public Affairs - NOAA's National Weather

Science.gov Websites

government web resources and services. Home >>Climate Data Finding past weather...Fast Climate data Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). First, find the location you need climate data for on the following map the left side of the page there will be a section called Climate in yellow-colored text. You may have

Weather conditions and voter turnout in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

PubMed

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-07-01

While conventional wisdom assumes that inclement weather on election day reduces voter turnout, there is remarkably little evidence available to support truth to such belief. This paper examines the effects of temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall on voter turnout in 13 Dutch national parliament elections held from 1971 to 2010. It merges the election results from over 400 municipalities with election-day weather data drawn from the nearest weather station. We find that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.

Evaluation of Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, Pamela

Severe weather events in the northeastern United States can be challenging to forecast, given how the evolution of deep convection can be influenced by complex terrain and the lack of quality observations in complex terrain. To supplement existing observations, this study explores using lightning to forecast severe convection in areas of complex terrain in the northeastern United States. A sudden increase in lightning flash rate by two standard deviations (2sigma), also known as a lightning jump, may be indicative of a strengthening updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. This study assesses the value of using lightning jumps to forecast severe weather during July 2015 in the northeastern United States. Total lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is used to calculate lightning jumps using a 2sigma lightning jump algorithm with a minimum threshold of 5 flashes min-1. Lightning jumps are used to predict the occurrence of severe weather, as given by whether a Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather report occurred 45 min after a lightning jump in the same cell. Results indicate a high probability of detection (POD; 85%) and a high false alarm rate (FAR; 89%), suggesting that lightning jumps occur in sub-severe storms. The interaction between convection and complex terrain results in a locally enhanced updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. Thus, it is hypothesized that conditioning on an upslope variable may reduce the FAR. A random forest is introduced to objectively combine upslope flow, calculated using data from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), flash rate (FR), and flash rate changes with time (DFRDT). The random forest, a machine-learning algorithm, uses pattern recognition to predict a severe or non-severe classification based on the predictors. In addition to upslope flow, FR, and DFRDT, Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Level III radar data was also included as a predictor to compare its

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Assist the National Weather Service (NWS) in Storm Damage Surveys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Lori A.; Molthan, Andrew; McGrath, Kevin; Bell, Jordan; Cole, Tony; Burks, Jason

2016-01-01

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geolocation, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

2005-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

American Weather Stories.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Patrick

Weather has shaped United States' culture, national character and folklore; at times it has changed the course of history. The seven accounts compiled in this publication highlight some of the nation's weather experiences from the hurricanes that threatened Christopher Columbus to the peculiar run of bad weather that has plagued American…

Long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions.

PubMed

Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, J; Krysta, M; Kalinowski, M; Hoffmann, E; Baré, J

2017-09-01

To investigate the transport of xenon emissions, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) operates an Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system based on the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. The air mass trajectory ideally provides a "link" between a radionuclide release and a detection confirmed by radionuclide measurements. This paper investigates the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions, with special emphasis on evaluating the changes in the simulated activity concentration values due to the inclusion of the convective transport in the ATM simulations. For that purpose a series of 14 day forward simulations, with and without convective transport, released daily in the period from 1 January 2011 to 30 June 2013, were analysed. The release point was at the ANSTO facility in Australia. The simulated activity concentrations for the period January 2011 to February 2012 were calculated using the daily emission values provided by the ANSTO facility; outside the aforementioned period, the median daily emission value was used. In the simulations the analysed meteorological input data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used with the spatial resolution of 0.5°. It was found that the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective conditions, where convection was included in the ATM simulation, led to a small decrease in the activity concentration, as compared to transport without convection. In special cases related to deep convection, the opposite effect was observed. Availability of both daily emission values and measured Xe-133 activity concentration values was an opportunity to validate the simulations. Based on the paired t-test, a 95% confidence interval for the true mean difference between simulations without convective transport and measurements was constructed. It was estimated that the overall uncertainty lies between 0.08 and 0.25 mBq/m 3

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves in aquachannel simulations: 2. Life cycle and dynamical-convective coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco, Joaquín. E.; Nolan, David S.; Mapes, Brian E.

2016-10-01

This second part of a two-part study uses Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with aquachannel and aquapatch domains to investigate the time evolution of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). Power spectra, filtering, and compositing are combined with object-tracking methods to assess the structure and phase speed propagation of CCKWs during their strengthening, mature, and decaying phases. In this regard, we introduce an innovative approach to more closely investigate the wave (Kelvin) versus entity (super cloud cluster or "SCC") dualism. In general, the composite CCKW structures represent a dynamical response to the organized convective activity. However, pressure and thermodynamic fields in the boundary layer behave differently. Further analysis of the time evolution of pressure and low-level moist static energy finds that these fields propagate eastward as a "moist" Kelvin wave (MKW), faster than the envelope of organized convection or SCC. When the separation is sufficiently large the SCC dissipates, and a new SCC generates to the east, in the region of strongest negative pressure perturbations. We revisit the concept itself of the "coupling" between convection and dynamics, and we also propose a conceptual model for CCKWs, with a clear distinction between the SCC and the MKW components.

A Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-04-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), they allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer-designs that involve conventional multicore CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation using the GPU-enabled COSMO version. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we focus on the annual cycle of convection in Europe, on the organization of convective clouds and on the verification of hourly rainfall with various high resolution datasets.

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This month's insert, Severe Weather, has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in this poster are hurricanes,…

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This article deals with a poster entitled, "Severe Weather," that has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in…

Public Affairs - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Publications Contact Us USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services. Top Story NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season In its ... Weather Favorites Finding Past Weather Alphabetical listing of NOAA's most sought after weather Web sites

Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences through National Dissemination of the AMS Online Weather Studies Distance Learning Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinbeck, R. S.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Porter, W. A.; Moran, J. M.

2002-12-01

Our nation faces a serious challenge in attracting young people to science and science-related careers (including teaching). This is particularly true for members of groups underrepresented in science, mathematics, engineering, and technology and is especially acute in the number of minority college students majoring in the geosciences. A formidable obstacle in attracting undergraduates to the geosciences is lack of access, that is, no opportunity to enroll in an introductory geoscience course simply because none is offered at their college or university. Often introductory or survey courses are a student's first exposure to the geosciences. To help alleviate this problem, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) through its Education Program developed and implemented nationally an introductory weather and climate course, Online Weather Studies, which can be added to an institution's menu of general education course offerings. This highly successful course will be offered at 130 colleges and universities nationwide, including 30 minority-serving institutions, 20 of which have joined the AMS Online Weather Studies Diversity Program during 2002. The AMS encourages course adoption by more institutions serving large numbers of minority students through support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Opportunities for Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences (OEDG) and Course, Curriculum and Laboratory Improvement-National Dissemination (CCLI-ND) programs. Online Weather Studies is an innovative, 12- to 15-week introductory college-level, online distance-learning course on the fundamentals of atmospheric science. Learner-formatted current weather data are delivered via the Internet and coordinated with investigations keyed to the day's weather. The principal innovation of Online Weather Studies is that students learn about weather as it happens in near real-time-a highly motivational learning experience. The AMS Education Program designed and services this course and

ARM - Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds (comstock-hvps)

DOE Data Explorer

Jensen, Mike; Comstock, Jennifer; Genio, Anthony Del; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

2012-01-06

Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth's energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and their link to the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of convective processes in numerical models is vital towards improving current and future simulations of Earths climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales important to convective processes and therefore must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, parameterization schemes in cloud-resolving models need to be evaluated for their generality and application to a variety of atmospheric conditions. Data from field campaigns with appropriate forcing descriptors have been traditionally used by modelers for evaluating and improving parameterization schemes.

Project "Convective Wind Gusts" (ConWinG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Richter, Alexandra; Kunz, Michael; Ruck, Bodo

2017-04-01

Convectively-driven strong winds usually associated with thunderstorms frequently cause substantial damage to buildings and other structures in many parts of the world. Decisive for the high damage potential are the short-term wind speed maxima with duration of a few seconds, termed as gusts. Several studies have shown that convectively-driven gusts can reach even higher wind speeds compared to turbulent gusts associated with synoptic-scale weather systems. Due to the small-scale and non-stationary nature of convective wind gusts, there is a considerable lack of knowledge regarding their characteristics and statistics. Furthermore, their interaction with urban structures and their influence on buildings is not yet fully understood. For these two reasons, convective wind events are not included in the present wind load standards of buildings and structures, which so far have been based solely on the characteristics of synoptically-driven wind gusts in the near-surface boundary layer (e. g., DIN EN 1991-1-4:2010-12; ASCE7). However, convective and turbulent gusts differ considerably, e.g. concerning vertical wind-speed profiles, gust factors (i.e., maximum to mean wind speed), or exceedance probability curves. In an effort to remedy this situation, the overarching objective of the DFG-project "Convective Wind Gusts" (ConWinG) is to investigate the characteristics and statistics of convective gusts as well as their interaction with urban structures. Based on a set of 110 climate stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) between 1992 and 2014, we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution, intensity, and occurrence probability of convective gusts. Similar to thunderstorm activity, the frequency of convective gusts decreases gradually from South to North Germany. A relation between gust intensity/probability to orography or climate conditions cannot be identified. Rather, high wind speeds, e.g., above 30 m/s, can be expected everywhere in Germany with almost

Estimating national crop yield potential and the relevance of weather data sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Wart, Justin

2011-12-01

To determine where, when, and how to increase yields, researchers often analyze the yield gap (Yg), the difference between actual current farm yields and crop yield potential. Crop yield potential (Yp) is the yield of a crop cultivar grown under specific management limited only by temperature and solar radiation and also by precipitation for water limited yield potential (Yw). Yp and Yw are critical components of Yg estimations, but are very difficult to quantify, especially at larger scales because management data and especially daily weather data are scarce. A protocol was developed to estimate Yp and Yw at national scales using site-specific weather, soils and management data. Protocol procedures and inputs were evaluated to determine how to improve accuracy of Yp, Yw and Yg estimates. The protocol was also used to evaluate raw, site-specific and gridded weather database sources for use in simulations of Yp or Yw. The protocol was applied to estimate crop Yp in US irrigated maize and Chinese irrigated rice and Yw in US rainfed maize and German rainfed wheat. These crops and countries account for >20% of global cereal production. The results have significant implications for past and future studies of Yp, Yw and Yg. Accuracy of national long-term average Yp and Yw estimates was significantly improved if (i) > 7 years of simulations were performed for irrigated and > 15 years for rainfed sites, (ii) > 40% of nationally harvested area was within 100 km of all simulation sites, (iii) observed weather data coupled with satellite derived solar radiation data were used in simulations, and (iv) planting and harvesting dates were specified within +/- 7 days of farmers actual practices. These are much higher standards than have been applied in national estimates of Yp and Yw and this protocol is a substantial step in making such estimates more transparent, robust, and straightforward. Finally, this protocol may be a useful tool for understanding yield trends and directing

NDBC - National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS51 KGYX

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Gray ME 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM ANZ100-280630- 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 Synopsis for - 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING REST OF TODAY E

Analysis of Automated Aircraft Conflict Resolution and Weather Avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, John F.; Chan, William N.; Lee, Chu Han

2009-01-01

This paper describes an analysis of using trajectory-based automation to resolve both aircraft and weather constraints for near-term air traffic management decision making. The auto resolution algorithm developed and tested at NASA-Ames to resolve aircraft to aircraft conflicts has been modified to mitigate convective weather constraints. Modifications include adding information about the size of a gap between weather constraints to the routing solution. Routes that traverse gaps that are smaller than a specific size are not used. An evaluation of the performance of the modified autoresolver to resolve both conflicts with aircraft and weather was performed. Integration with the Center-TRACON Traffic Management System was completed to evaluate the effect of weather routing on schedule delays.

AMS Online Weather Studies: The National Dissemination of a Distance Learning Course for Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinbeck, R. S.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Porter, W. A.; Moran, J. M.

2004-12-01

Our nation faces a serious challenge in attracting young people to science and science-related careers (including teaching). This is particularly true for members of groups underrepresented in science, mathematics, engineering, and technology and is especially acute in the number of minority college students majoring in the geosciences. A formidable obstacle in attracting undergraduates to the geosciences is lack of access, that is, no opportunity to enroll in geoscience courses simply because none is offered at their college or university. Often college-level introductory courses are a student's first exposure to the geosciences. To help alleviate this problem of access, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has developed and implemented nationally an introductory weather and climate course, Online Weather Studies, which can be added to an institution's menu of general education course offerings. This highly successful course has been licensed by over 230 colleges and universities nationwide, among them 72 minority-serving institutions which have joined via the AMS Online Weather Studies Geosciences Diversity Program since 2002. This program designed to reach institutions serving large numbers of minority students has been made possible through support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Opportunities for Enhancing Diversity in the Geosciences (OEDG) and Course, Curriculum and Laboratory Improvement-National Dissemination (CCLI-ND) programs. Online Weather Studies is an innovative, 12- to 15-week introductory college-level, online distance-learning course on the fundamentals of atmospheric science. Learner-formatted current weather data are delivered via the Internet and coordinated with investigations keyed to the day's weather. The principal innovation of Online Weather Studies is that students learn about weather as it happens in near real-time - a highly motivational learning experience. The AMS Education Program designed and services this course

Ensemble superparameterization versus stochastic parameterization: A comparison of model uncertainty representation in tropical weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-06-01

Stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainty in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system has helped improve its probabilistic forecast skill over the past decade by both improving its reliability and reducing the ensemble mean error. The largest uncertainties in the model arise from the model physics parameterizations. In the tropics, the parameterization of moist convection presents a major challenge for the accurate prediction of weather and climate. Superparameterization is a promising alternative strategy for including the effects of moist convection through explicit turbulent fluxes calculated from a cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded within a global climate model (GCM). In this paper, we compare the impact of initial random perturbations in embedded CRMs, within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, with stochastically perturbed physical tendency (SPPT) scheme as a way to represent model uncertainty in medium-range tropical weather forecasts. We especially focus on forecasts of tropical convection and dynamics during MJO events in October-November 2011. These are well-studied events for MJO dynamics as they were also heavily observed during the DYNAMO field campaign. We show that a multiscale ensemble modeling approach helps improve forecasts of certain aspects of tropical convection during the MJO events, while it also tends to deteriorate certain large-scale dynamic fields with respect to stochastically perturbed physical tendencies approach that is used operationally at ECMWF.