Satellite-Based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCullum, Amber; Schmidt, Cynthia; Ly, Vickie; Green, Rachel; McClellan, Carlee

2017-01-01

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Satellite-based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullum, A. J. K.; Schmidt, C.; Ly, V.; Green, R.; McClellan, C.

2017-12-01

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation.

PubMed

Balducci, Lorena; Cuny, Henri E; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Deslauriers, Annie; Giovannelli, Alessio; Rossi, Sergio

2016-06-01

Because of global warming, high-latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long-distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night-time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub-processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night-time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree-rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree-ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudd, Alison C.; Bell, Victoria A.; Kay, Alison L.

2017-07-01

Droughts are phenomena that affect people and ecosystems in a variety of ways. One way to help with resilience to future droughts is to understand the characteristics of historic droughts and how these have changed over the recent past. Although, on average, Great Britain experiences a relatively wet climate it is also prone to periods of low rainfall which can lead to droughts. Until recently research into droughts of Great Britain has been neglected compared to other natural hazards such as storms and floods. This study is the first to use a national-scale gridded hydrological model to characterise droughts across Great Britain over the last century. Firstly, the model performance at low flows is assessed and it is found that the model can simulate low flows well in many catchments across Great Britain. Next, the threshold level method is applied to time series of monthly mean river flow and soil moisture to identify historic droughts (1891-2015). It is shown that the national-scale gridded output can be used to identify historic drought periods. A quantitative assessment of drought characteristics shows that groundwater-dependent areas typically experience more severe droughts, which have longer durations rather than higher intensities. There is substantial spatial and temporal variability in the drought characteristics, but there are no consistent changes through time.

Public Participation, Education, and Engagement in Drought Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathke, D. J.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.

2014-12-01

Drought is a complex problem that typically goes beyond the capacity, resources, and jurisdiction of any single person, program, organization, political boundary, or sector. Thus, by nature, monitoring, planning for, and reducing drought risk must be a collaborative process. The National Drought Mitigation Center, in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Program Office and others, provides active engagement and education drought professionals, stakeholders, and the general public about managing drought-related risks through resilience planning, monitoring, and education. Using case studies, we discuss recruitment processes, network building, participation techniques, and educational methods as they pertain to a variety of unique audiences with distinct objectives. Examples include collaborative decision-making at a World Meteorological Organization conference; planning, and peer-learning among drought professionals in a community of practice; drought condition monitoring through citizen science networks; research and education dissemination with stakeholder groups; and informal learning activities for all ages. Finally, we conclude with evaluation methods, indicators of success, and lessons learned for increasing the effectiveness of our programs in increasing drought resilience.

Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

Building Gateway Tools for Informed Decision Making: The Drought Risk Atlas and U.S. Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, M.; Fuchs, B.; Poulsen, C.; Nothwehr, J.; Owen, S.

2014-12-01

The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (http://drought.gov;) and other partners with a goal of developing tools to enhance drought risk management activities in the U.S. and around the world. The NDMC is a national center founded in 1995 and located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The NDMC conducts basic and applied research, provides a variety of services and produces decision support applications. In addition, the NDMC is involved heavily in education, outreach and planning activities and maintains a number of operational drought-related tools and products including the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Drought Risk Atlas (DRA). The NDMC's recently launched Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) (http://droughtatlas.unl.edu) and the continually evolving U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu;) will be the focus of this presentation. The DRA was launched in 2014 in order to help better answer the common questions of "How does this drought compare to the Dust Bowl years or some other regional drought of record?", or "How often do we see a drought as severe as this?", and "Are we seeing trends in drought frequency?". Access to new digital data sources, geospatial tools and analyses, and dissemination through a web-based interface has allowed us to triple the original National Drought Atlas station sample size and roughly double the period of record in standing up the new DRA. Building off of feedback from the user community, the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, self-calibrated PDSI, Deciles and other climatology (to also include hydrology) products are included. It is anticipated that this tool will heighten awareness and enhance decision support activities with regards to drought risk for policy makers, resource managers, producers, planners, media and the public. Examples of the DRA

Use of medium-range weather forecasts for drought mitigation and adaptation under a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahlou, Ouiam; Imani, Yasmina; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Dutra, Emanuel; DiGiuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2014-05-01

Use of medium-range weather forecasts for drought mitigation and adaptation under a Mediterranean area Authors: Ouiam Lahlou1, Yasmina Imani1, Si Bennasser Alaoui1, Emmanuel Dutra 2, Francesca Di Guiseppe2, Florian Pappenberger2, Fredrik Wetterhall2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II) 2: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) The main pillar of economic development in Morocco is the agricultural sector employing 40% of the active workforce. Agriculture is still mainly dominated by rainfed agriculture which is vulnerable to an increasing frequency and severity of drought events. In rainfed agriculture, there are few interventions possible once crops are planted. Medium to long range weather forecasts could therefore provide valid information for crop selection and sowing time at the onset of the yield season and later to plan mitigation measures during dry-spell episodes. More than 600 daily forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasting system were analyzed in terms of probabilistic skills scores. Results show that, while daily and weekly accumulated precipitation are poorly predicted there is good skill in the forecast of occurrence and extent of dry periods. The availability of this information to decision makers in the agricultural sector would mean moving from a reactive drought management plan to a proactive one. This is very important, especially for the remote areas where often the needed help comes late. A simulation case-study involving farmers who were made aware of the availability of forecasts for the next seasons, show that medium-range forecasts will allow i) governments and relief agencies to position themselves for more effective and cost-efficient drought interventions, ii) producers to be more aware of their production options and insure their payment rate, iii) Herders, to cope with higher food costs for their cattle iv) farmers to better plan

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to

USGS integrated drought science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.

2017-06-05

Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

2015-01-01

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

2014-01-01

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland

2007-01-01

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ly, Vickie; Gao, Michael; Cary, Cheryl; Turnbull-Appell, Sophie; Surunis, Anton

2016-01-01

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts

Comparison between Two Methods for agricultural drought disaster risk in southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

han, lanying; zhang, qiang

2016-04-01

The drought is a natural disaster, which lead huge loss to agricultural yield in the world. The drought risk has become increasingly prominent because of the climatic warming during the past century, and which is also one of the main meteorological disasters and serious problem in southwestern China, where drought risk exceeds the national average. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the problem, thereby endangering Chinaʹs food security. In this paper, drought disaster in the southwestern China (where there are serious drought risk and the comprehensive loss accounted for 3.9% of national drought area) were selected to show the drought change under climate change, and two methods were used to assess the drought disaster risk, drought risk assessment model and comprehensive drought risk index. Firstly, we used the analytic hierarchy process and meteorological, geographic, soil, and remote-sensing data to develop a drought risk assessment model (defined using a comprehensive drought disaster risk index, R) based on the drought hazard, environmental vulnerability, sensitivity and exposure of the values at risk, and capacity to prevent or mitigate the problem. Second, we built the comprehensive drought risk index (defined using a comprehensive drought disaster loss, L) based on statistical drought disaster data, including crop yields, drought-induced areas, drought-occurred areas, no harvest areas caused by drought and planting areas. Using the model, we assessed the drought risk. The results showed that spatial distribution of two drought disaster risks were coherent, and revealed complex zonality in southwestern China. The results also showed the drought risk is becoming more and more serious and frequent in the country under the global climatic warming background. The eastern part of the study area had an extremely high risk, and risk was generally greater in the north than in the south, and increased from southwest to northeast. The drought disaster risk or

Understanding Droughts and their Agricultural Impact in North America at the Basin Scale through the Development of Satellite Based Drought Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz Hernandez, A.; Lawford, R. G.

2012-12-01

and to identify times when drought intensity has exceeded local index thresholds for drought intensity and impacts on a regional basis. Future work includes the selection of several additional drought-prone areas located in Southwest United States, Northwest Mexico, and the Palliser Triangle in Canada and the comparison of national policies associated with drought mitigation programs.

Adaptation to high temperature mitigates the impact of water deficit during combined heat and drought stress in C3 sunflower and C4 maize varieties with contrasting drought tolerance.

PubMed

Killi, Dilek; Bussotti, Filippo; Raschi, Antonio; Haworth, Matthew

2017-02-01

Heat and drought stress frequently occur together, however, their impact on plant growth and photosynthesis (P N ) is unclear. The frequency, duration and severity of heat and drought stress events are predicted to increase in the future, having severe implications for agricultural productivity and food security. To assess the impact on plant gas exchange, physiology and morphology we grew drought tolerant and sensitive varieties of C3 sunflower (Helianthus annuus) and C4 maize (Zea mays) under conditions of elevated temperature for 4 weeks prior to the imposition of water deficit. The negative impact of temperature on P N was most apparent in sunflower. The drought tolerant sunflower retained ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RubisCO) activity under heat stress to a greater extent than its drought sensitive counterpart. Maize exhibited no varietal difference in response to increased temperature. In contrast to previous studies, where a sudden rise in temperature induced an increase in stomatal conductance (G s ), we observed no change or a reduction in G s with elevated temperature, which alongside lower leaf area mitigated the impact of drought at the higher temperature. The drought tolerant sunflower and maize varieties exhibited greater investment in root-systems, allowing greater uptake of the available soil water. Elevated temperatures associated with heat-waves will have profound negative impacts on crop growth in both sunflower and maize, but the deleterious effect on P N was less apparent in the drought tolerant sunflower and both maize varieties. As C4 plants generally exhibit water use efficiency (WUE) and resistance to heat stress, selection on the basis of tolerance to heat and drought stress would be more beneficial to the yields of C3 crops cultivated in drought prone semi-arid regions. © 2016 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Creating a Regional Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) for California and Nevada: Building Off of Information Gathered and Lessons Learned after 5 Years of Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, A. M.; Marrs, A.; Wall, T. U.; Cayan, D.; Kalansky, J.; Redmond, K. T.; Huntington, J. L.; McEvoy, D.

2016-12-01

In California and Nevada, a diverse set of sectors and regional variation amidst a 5-year spell of drought presents multiple needs, gaps and challenges in providing usable available information for drought preparedness. In response to the findings of Governor Sandoval's Nevada Drought Forum and a series of stakeholder meetings and drought and climate outlooks in California, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) has created the California-Nevada DEWS to leverage the activities of the existing California DEWS to better reflect the needs of the region after five years of unprecedented drought. In addition to presenting timely drought status and outlooks, these stakeholder-oriented meetings and listening sessions explored local drought impacts and drought informational needs. The information gathered will be integrated into a strategic plan for California-Nevada DEWS. This strategic plan will provide a roadmap of planned research and activities to enhance the ability of stakeholders in the region to better plan, prepare for and mitigate the impacts of drought. The implementation will involve key partners from a diverse network of federal, regional, tribal, state and local agencies and interests and will result in regionally specific deliverables to advance the California-Nevada DEWS.

Introduction of Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System based on Real-time Water Information Using ICT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y., II; Kim, H. S.; Chun, G.

2016-12-01

There were severe damages such as restriction on water supply caused by continuous drought from 2014 to 2015 in South Korea. Through this drought event, government of South Korea decided to establish National Drought Information Analysis Center in K-water(Korea Water Resources Corporation) and introduce a national drought monitoring and early warning system to mitigate those damages. Drought index such as SPI(Standard Precipitation Index), PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) and SMI(Soil Moisture Index) etc. have been developed and are widely used to provide drought information in many countries. However, drought indexes are not appropriate for drought monitoring and early warning in civilized countries with high population density such as South Korea because it could not consider complicated water supply network. For the national drought monitoring and forecasting of South Korea, `Drought Information Analysis System' (D.I.A.S) which is based on the real time data(storage, flowrate, waterlevel etc.) was developed. Based on its advanced methodology, `DIAS' is changing the paradigm of drought monitoring and early warning systems. Because `D.I.A.S' contains the information of water supply network from water sources to the people across the nation and provides drought information considering the real-time hydrological conditions of each and every water source. For instance, in case the water level of a specific dam declines to predetermined level of caution, `D.I.A.S' will notify people who uses the dam as a source of residential or industrial water. It is expected to provide credible drought monitoring and forecasting information with a strong relationship between drought information and the feelings of people rely on water users by `D.I.A.S'.

Defining operating rules for mitigation of drought effects on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, G.; Caporali, E.; Garrote, L.; Federici, G. V.

2012-04-01

Reservoirs play a pivotal role for water supply systems regulation and management especially during drought periods. Optimization of reservoir releases, related to drought mitigation rules is particularly required. The hydrologic state of the system is evaluated defining some threshold values, expressed in probabilistic terms. Risk deficit curves are used to reduce the ensemble of possible rules for simulation. Threshold values can be linked to specific actions in an operational context in different levels of severity, i.e. normal, pre-alert, alert and emergency scenarios. A simplified model of the water resources system is built to evaluate the threshold values and the management rules. The threshold values are defined considering the probability to satisfy a given fraction of the demand in a certain time horizon, and are validated with a long term simulation that takes into account the characteristics of the evaluated system. The threshold levels determine some curves that define reservoir releases as a function of existing storage volume. A demand reduction is related to each threshold level. The rules to manage the system in drought conditions, the threshold levels and the reductions are optimized using long term simulations with different hypothesized states of the system. Synthetic sequences of flows with the same statistical properties of the historical ones are produced to evaluate the system behaviour. Performances of different values of reduction and different threshold curves are evaluated using different objective function and performances indices. The methodology is applied to the urban area Firenze-Prato-Pistoia in central Tuscany, in Central Italy. The considered demand centres are Firenze and Bagno a Ripoli that have, accordingly to the census ISTAT 2001, a total of 395.000 inhabitants.

Global drought watch from space at work: Crop losses and food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogan, F.

2012-12-01

Drought is one of the most adverse environmental disasters. It affects countries economies, environment a very large number of people in the world. Only in the USA drought costs taxpayers nearly $6 billion each year. Drought is a very unusual phenomenon because unlike other environmental disaster it starts unnoticeably, develop cumulatively, the impact is also cumulative and by the time when the effect of drought is observable it is too late to mitigate the consequences. Therefore, it is difficult to mitigate droughts using in situ data. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed new method for drought detection and monitoring from reflectance measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer flown on NOAA polar-orbiting operational environmental satellites. The method calculates Vegetation Health (VH) indices, which estimate vegetation condition (health) on a scale from extreme stress to favorable conditions based on intensity of greenness, vigor and thermal condition of vegetation canopy. The VH is estimated every week for each 4 by 4 km earth surface and is delivered to the NOAA/NESDIS web site in digital and color-coded form. The web site address is the following http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/index.php In addition to drought and vegetation health monitoring, the VH indices are applied in agriculture, forestry, mosquito-borne diseases, climate, invasive species and others. During the first seven months of 2009, drought was observed in the southern US (especially Texas), Argentina (very intensive drought), some of the countries of sub-Sahara Africa, India (central and eastern), Kazakhstan and Australia.

Impact of drought on the North America carbon balance: implications for global carbon mitigation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; Parazoo, N.; Bloom, A. A.; Wunch, D.; Jiang, Z.; Gurney, K. R.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Drought and heat events are significant contributors to the interanual variability of terrestrial biosphere carbon flux in temperate North America. In order to be understand the drivers of this variability, we quantified the impact of two drought events in Texas and Mexico in 2011 as wells as the United States Midwest in 2012 on Net Biome Exchange, Gross Primary Productivity, Biomass Burning, and total ecosystem respiration using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) carbon cycle data assimilation system constrained with a suite of satellite observations. The global spatial distribution of NBE was constrained by column CO2 (XCO2) observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) accounting for fossil fuel contributions, while GPP was estimated with Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and biomass burning was computed from CO emissions constrained by MOPITT. Total ecosystem respiration (TER) was calculated as a residual term. We found that both drought events greatly reduced NBE and GPP during the seasonal peak, but had quite different effects on the annual NBE. Due to the year-long duration of the 2011 Texas-Northern Mexico (Tex-Mex) drought, the annual net uptake was reduced by 0.28 ± 0.10 GtC, which was dominated by the reduction of GPP (-0.34 ± 0.14 GtC). The regional contribution to the atmospheric CO2 growth, which is the sum of fossil fuel emissions and the biosphere net uptake, increased by more than a factor of 3 from an average of 0.09 GtC to 0.30 GtC in 2011. In contrast, a seasonally enhanced NBE in the Midwest partially offset the drought leading to an annual NBE reduction of only 0.16 ± 0.16 GtC. The reduction of net carbon uptake from the 2011 and 2012 drought impact was 50% and 25% respectively of the regional annual fossil fuel emissions. The results show that climate variability needs to be considered in order to relate carbon mitigation strategies to regional and

National Wetlands Mitigation Action Plan

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 26, 2002, EPA and the Corps of Engineers announced the release of a comprehensive, interagency National Wetlands Mitigation Action Plan to further achievement of the goal of no net loss of wetlands.

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2016-09-01

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include

• (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to

• Evaluation of the Performance of Multiple Drought Indices for Tunisia

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Geli, H. M. E.; Jedd, T.; Svoboda, M.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.

  2016-12-01

  The recent and frequent drought events in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) create an urgent need for scientists, stakeholders, and decision makers to improve the understanding of drought in order to mitigate its effects. It is well documented that drought is not caused by meteorological or hydrological conditions alone; social, economic, and political governance factors play a large part in whether the components in a water supply system are balanced. In the MENA region, for example, agricultural production can place a significant burden on water supply systems. Understanding the connection between drought and agricultural production is an important first step in developing a sound drought monitoring and mitigation system that links physical indicators with on-the-ground impacts. Drought affect crop yield, livestock health, and water resources availability, among others. A clear depiction of drought onset, duration and severity is essential to provide valuable information to adapt and mitigate drought impact. Therefore, it is important that to be able to connect and evaluate scientific drought data and informational products with societal impact data to more effectively initiate mitigation actions. This approach will further the development of drought maps that are tailored and responsive to immediate and specific societal needs for a region or country. Within the context of developing and evaluating drought impacts maps for the MENA region, this analysis investigates the use of different drought indices and indicators including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, land surface temperature (LST), and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for their ability to characterize historic drought events in Tunisia. Evaluation of a "drought map" product is conducted using data at the county level including crop yield, precipitation, in-country interviews with drought monitoring experts and agricultural

• Drought Monitoring with VegDRI

  USGS Publications Warehouse

  Brown, Jesslyn F.

  2010-01-01

  Drought strikes somewhere in the United States every year, turning green landscapes brown as precipitation falls below normal levels and water supplies dwindle. Drought is typically a temporary climatic aberration, but it is also an insidious natural hazard. It might last for weeks, months, or years and may have many negative effects. Drought can threaten crops, livestock, and livelihoods, stress wildlife and habitats, and increase wildfire risks and threats to human health. Drought conditions can vary tremendously from place to place and week to week. Accurate drought monitoring is essential to understand a drought's progression and potential effects, and to provide information necessary to support drought mitigation decisions. It is also crucial in light of climate change where droughts could become more frequent, severe, and persistent.

• The implications of drought and water conservation on the reuse of municipal wastewater: Recognizing impacts and identifying mitigation possibilities.

  PubMed

  Tran, Quynh K; Jassby, David; Schwabe, Kurt A

  2017-11-01

  As water agencies continue to investigate opportunities to increase resilience and local water supply reliability in the face of drought and rising water scarcity, water conservation strategies and the reuse of treated municipal wastewater are garnering significant attention and adoption. Yet a simple water balance thought experiment illustrates that drought, and the conservation strategies that are often enacted in response to it, both likely limit the role reuse may play in improving local water supply reliability. For instance, as a particular drought progresses and agencies enact water conservation measures to cope with drought, influent flows likely decrease while influent pollution concentrations increase, particularly salinity, which adversely affects wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) costs and effluent quality and flow. Consequently, downstream uses of this effluent, whether to maintain streamflow and quality, groundwater recharge, or irrigation may be impacted. This is unfortunate since reuse is often heralded as a drought-proof mechanism to increase resilience. The objectives of this paper are two-fold. First, we illustrate-using a case study from Southern California during its most recent drought- how drought and water conservation strategies combine to reduce influent flow and quality and, subsequently, effluent flow and quality. Second, we use a recently developed regional water reuse decision support model (RWRM) to highlight cost-effective strategies that can be implemented to mitigate the impacts of drought on effluent water quality. While the solutions we identify cannot increase the flow of influent or effluent coming into or out of a treatment plant, they can improve the value of the remaining effluent in a cost-effective manner that takes into account the characteristics of its demand, whether it be for landscaping, golf courses, agricultural irrigation, or surface water augmentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Advancements in satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring

  USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

  Drought monitoring is a key component for effective drought preparedness strategies, providing critical information on current conditions that can be used to trigger mitigation actions to lessen the impact of this natural hazard. However, drought can be both complex and challenging to monitor becau...

• Disaster risk assessment case study: Recent drought on the Navajo Nation, USA

  USGS Publications Warehouse

  Hiza, Margaret; Kelley, Klara B.; Francis, Harris; Block, Debra

  2011-01-01

  The Navajo Nation is an ecologically sensitive semi-arid to arid section of the southern Colorado Plateau. In this remote part of the United States, located at the Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah), traditional people live a subsistence lifestyle that is inextricably tied to, and dependent upon, landscape conditions and water supplies. Soft bedrock lithologies and sand dunes dominate the region, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in precipitation intensity, percent vegetation cover, and local land use practices. However, this region has sparse and discontinuous meteorological monitoring records. As a complement to the scant long-term meteorological records and historical documentation, we conducted interviews with 50 Native American elders from the Navajo Nation and compiled their lifetime observations on the changes in water availability, weather, and sand or dust storms. We then used these observations to further refine our understanding of the historical trends and impacts of climate change and drought for the region. In addition to altered landscape conditions due to climatic change, drought, and varying land use practices over the last 130 years, the Navajo people have been affected by federal policies and harsh economic conditions which weaken their cultural fabric. We conclude that a long-term drying trend and decreasing snowpack, superimposed on regional drought cycles, will magnify drought impacts on the Navajo Nation and leave its people increasingly vulnerable.

• Short- and long-term efficacy of forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts in mountain forests in the European Alps.

  PubMed

  Elkin, Ché; Giuggiola, Arnaud; Rigling, Andreas; Bugmann, Harald

  2015-06-01

  In many regions of the world, drought is projected to increase under climate change, with potential negative consequences for forests and their ecosystem services (ES). Forest thinning has been proposed as a method for at least temporarily mitigating drought impacts, but its general applicability and longer-term impacts are unclear. We use a process-based forest model to upscale experimental data for evaluating the impacts of forest thinning in a drought-susceptible valley in the interior of the European Alps, with the specific aim of assessing (1) when and where thinning may be most effective and (2) the longer-term implications for forest dynamics. Simulations indicate that forests will be impacted by climate-induced increases in drought across a broad elevation range. At lower elevations, where drought is currently prevalent, thinning is projected to temporarily reduce tree mortality, but to have minor impacts on forest dynamics in the longer term. Thinning may be particularly useful at intermediate and higher elevations as a means of temporarily reducing mortality in drought-sensitive species such as Norway spruce and larch, which currently dominate these elevations. However, in the longer term, even intense thinning will likely not be sufficient to prevent a climate change induced dieback of these species, which is projected to occur under even moderate climate change. Thinning is also projected to have the largest impact on long-term forest dynamics at intermediate elevations, with the magnitude of the impact depending on the timing and intensity of thinning. More intense thinning that is done later is projected to more strongly promote a transition to more drought-tolerant species. We conclude that thinning is a viable option for temporarily reducing the negative drought impacts on forests, but that efficient implementation of thinning should be contingent on a site-specific evaluation of the near term risk of significant drought, and how thinning will

• National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

  USGS Publications Warehouse

  Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

  1991-01-01

  National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

• Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

  2016-12-01

  East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

• The Drought Task Force and Research on Understanding, Predicting, and Monitoring Drought

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Hoerling, M. P.; Wood, E. F.; Koster, R. D.; Svoboda, M.

  2016-12-01

  Drought has caused serious social and economic impacts throughout the history of the United States. All Americans are susceptible to the direct and indirect threats drought poses to the Nation. Drought challenges agricultural productivity and reduces the quantity and quality of drinking water supplies upon which communities and industries depend. Drought jeopardizes the integrity of critical infrastructure, causes extensive economic and health impacts, harms ecosystems, and increases energy costs. Ensuring the availability of clean, sufficient, and reliable water resources is a top national and NOAA priority. The Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program, in partnership with the NOAA-led National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), is focused on improving our understanding of drought causes, evolution, amelioration, and impacts as well as improving our capability to monitor and predict drought. These capabilities and knowledge are critical to providing communities with actionable, reliable information to increase drought preparedness and resilience. This poster will present information on the MAPP-organized Drought Task Force, a consortium of investigators funded by the MAPP program in partnership with NIDIS to advance drought understanding, monitoring, and prediction. Information on Task Force activities, products, and MAPP drought initiatives will be described in the poster, including the Task Force's ongoing focus on the California drought, its predictability, and its causes.

• Groundwater potential for water supply during droughts in Korea

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Hyun, Y.; Cha, E.; Moon, H. J.

  2016-12-01

  Droughts have been receiving much attention in Korea because severe droughts occurred in recent years, causing significant social, economic and environmental damages in some regions. Residents in agricultural area, most of all, were most damaged by droughts with lack of available water supplies to meet crop water demands. In order to mitigate drought damages, we present a strategy to keep from agricultural droughts by using groundwater to meet water supply as a potential water resource in agricultural areas. In this study, we analyze drought severity and the groundwater potential to mitigate social and environmental damages caused by droughts in Korea. We evaluate drought severity by analyzing spatial and temporal meteorological and hydrological data such as rainfall, water supply and demand. For drought severity, we use effective drought index along with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI). Water deficit during the drought period is also quantified to consider social and environmental impact of droughts. Then we assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a potential source for groundwater impact mitigation. Results show that the agricultural areas are more vulnerable to droughts and use of groundwater as an emergency water resource is feasible in some regions. For a case study, we select Jeong-Sun area located in Kangwon providence having well-developed Karst aquifers and surrounded by mountains. For Jeong-Sun area, we quantify groundwater potential use, design the method of water supply by using groundwater, and assess its economic benefit. Results show that water supply system with groundwater abstraction can be a good strategy when droughts are severe for an emergency water supply in Jeong-Sun area, and groundwater can also be used not only for a dry season water supply resource, but for everyday water supply system. This case study results can further be applicable to some regions with no sufficient water

• Lessons Learned on Effective Co-production of Drought Science and Decision Support Tools with the Wind River Reservation Tribal Water Managers

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.; Beeton, T.

  2015-12-01

  The Wind River Reservation in west-central Wyoming is home of the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes. The reservation has experienced severe drought impacts on Tribal livelihoods and cultural activities in recent years. Scientists from the North Central Climate Science Center, the National Drought Mitigation Center, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and multiple others are working in close partnership with the tribal water managers on a reservation-wide drought preparedness project that includes a technical assessment of drought risk, capacity building to train managers on drought and climate science and indicators, and drought planning. This talk will present project activities to date along with the valuable and transferrable lessons learned on effective co-production of actionable science for decision making in a tribal context.

• Comparison of national space debris mitigation standards

  NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

  Kato, A.

  2001-01-01

  Several national organizations of the space faring nations have established Space Debris Mitigation Standards or Handbooks to promote efforts to deal with the space debris issue. This paper introduces the characteristics of each document and compares the structure, items and level of requirements. The contents of these standards may be slightly different from each other but the fundamental principles are almost the same; they are (1) prevention of on-orbit breakups, (2) removal of mission terminated spacecraft from the useful orbit regions, and (3) limiting the objects released during normal operations. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee has contributed considerably to this trend. The Committee also found out by its recent survey that some commercial companies have begun to adopt the debris mitigation measures for their projects. However, the number of organizations that have initiated this kind of self-control is still limited, so the next challenge of the Committee is to promote the Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines world-wide. IADC initiated this project in October 1999 and a draft is being circulated among the member agencies.

Overcoming Uncertainty with Help From Citizens: ISeeChange Case Studies on Urban Flooding, Indoor Heat waves, and Drought to Inform Resilience Efforts, Hazard Mitigation, and Long-term Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

2017-12-01

When it comes to the impacts of weather and climate, the granular local data and context needed to inform infrastructure decisions, hazard mitigation efforts, and long-term planning can't be scraped from satellites, remote sensing, or radar data. This is particularly the case with respect to the heat inside people's homes, local street flooding, and landscapes historically unaccustomed to drought conditions. ISeeChange is developing tools that empower citizens, scientists, city planners, journalists, and local community groups to collaborate and iteratively fill-in crucial data gaps as conditions change in real time. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. ISeeChange's app and platform serve as the center of several on- the-ground community pilot initiatives in cities around the country addressing urban heat, flooding, and drought. Results from ISeeChange investigations suggest that indoor temperatures in Harlem are 7-8 degrees hotter than outdoor temperatures at night; some residents in New Orleans may be experiencing the impacts of 5-year-floods on a more regular basis, and droughts don't look or behave the same in different regions, such as New England. Our presentation will focus on pilots in New Orleans, Harlem, and New England, which demonstrate how diverse teams are producing actionable science to inform the design of resilience efforts like real-time indoor heat notification systems, green infrastructure projects to manage stormwater and flooding, and a photographic index of drought.

Variability and trends in global drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2015-01-01

Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

2014-05-01

Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia

Reduction of stand density as a management tool to mitigate the effect of drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuggiola, A.; Rigling, A.; Dobbertin, M.

2012-04-01

An increasing frequency and severity of drought combined with increased competition due to reduced forest management practices are putting many Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) under increased drought pressure. Declining pines are already been observed in many drought exposed regions as in southern Europe or in the dry inner Alpine valleys. Thus, forest management practices oriented at reducing competition for water should increase pines tolerance to climate change and thus enhancing their long-term mitigation potential. In this study, we are testing the beneficial effect of thinning and understory removal as possible management practices. As a first study object we selected a trial with 3 thinning intensities (basal area reduction of 15%, 46% and 70%) and one control (unmanaged forest). The second experiment consisted in removing the understory layer in a radius of 5 meter from 6 mature pine trees. Water-related indicators, such as soil water content, sapflow, point dendrometer and ring width measurements over the growing season were then compared with control trees. Both objects belongs to the pine forests from the dry Rhone valley. Our results indicates that over the 10 years following the thinning performed in 1965 (when the stand was 45 years old) doubled and quadrupled the basal area increment in the medium and heavy treatments compared to the control. The annual mortality rates for the period 1978-1990 ranged between 2.9% for the control and 0.8% for the heavy thinned stand. An increasing mortality rates during the period 1991-2009 (up to 3.3%), with consequent decline in basal area and carbon sequestration, has been observed in relation to high remaining stand density. The removal of understory performed in April 2010 increased soil water content at 30 cm and 65 cm depth reducing trees drought stress. The transpiration and the predawn leaf water potential of overstory trees were higher in the trees with removal of the understory vegetation. The same

Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.

2016-12-01

Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

Elevated CO2 did not mitigate the effect of a short-term drought on biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wertin, Timothy M.; Phillips, Susan L.; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are critical components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems that contribute significantly to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fixation, water retention, soil stability, and seedling recruitment. While dry-land ecosystems face a number of environmental changes, our understanding of how biocrusts may respond to such perturbation remains notably poor. To determine the effect that elevated CO2 may have on biocrust composition, cover, and function, we measured percent soil surface cover, effective quantum yield, and pigment concentrations of naturally occurring biocrusts growing in ambient and elevated CO2 at the desert study site in Nevada, USA, from spring 2005 through spring 2007. During the experiment, a year-long drought allowed us to explore the interacting effects that elevated CO2 and water availability may have on biocrust cover and function. We found that, regardless of CO2 treatment, precipitation was the major regulator of biocrust cover. Drought reduced moss and lichen cover to near-zero in both ambient and elevated CO2 plots, suggesting that elevated CO2 did not alleviate water stress or increase C fixation to levels sufficient to mitigate drought-induced reduction in cover. In line with this result, lichen quantum yield and soil cyanobacteria pigment concentrations appeared more strongly dependent upon recent precipitation than CO2 treatment, although we did find evidence that, when hydrated, elevated CO2 increased lichen C fixation potential. Thus, an increase in atmospheric CO2 may only benefit biocrusts if overall climate patterns shift to create a wetter soil environment.

Accumulation of eicosapolyenoic acids enhances sensitivity to abscisic acid and mitigates the effects of drought in transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Qi, Baoxiu

2014-01-01

IgASE1, a C18 Δ9-specific polyunsaturated fatty acid elongase from the marine microalga Isochrysis galbana, is able to convert linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid to eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid in Arabidopsis. Eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid are precursors of arachidonic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid, which are synthesized via the Δ8 desaturation biosynthetic pathways. This study shows that the IgASE1-expressing transgenic Arabidopsis exhibited altered morphology (decreased leaf area and biomass) and enhanced drought resistance compared to wild-type plants. The transgenic Arabidopsis were hypersensitive to abscisic acid (ABA) during seed germination, post-germination growth, and seedling development. They had elevated leaf ABA levels under well-watered and dehydrated conditions and their stomata were more sensitive to ABA. Exogenous application of eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid can mimic ABA and drought responses in the wild type plants, similar to that found in the transgenic ones. The transcript levels of genes involved in the biosynthesis of ABA (NCED3, ABA1, AAO3) as well as other stress-related genes were upregulated in this transgenic line upon osmotic stress (300mM mannitol). Taken together, these results indicate that these two eicosapolyenoic acids or their derived metabolites can mitigate the effects of drought in transgenic Arabidopsis, at least in part, through the action of ABA. PMID:24609499

Accumulation of eicosapolyenoic acids enhances sensitivity to abscisic acid and mitigates the effects of drought in transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Yuan, Xiaowei; Li, Yaxiao; Liu, Shiyang; Xia, Fei; Li, Xinzheng; Qi, Baoxiu

2014-04-01

IgASE1, a C₁₈ Δ(9)-specific polyunsaturated fatty acid elongase from the marine microalga Isochrysis galbana, is able to convert linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid to eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid in Arabidopsis. Eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid are precursors of arachidonic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid, which are synthesized via the Δ(8) desaturation biosynthetic pathways. This study shows that the IgASE1-expressing transgenic Arabidopsis exhibited altered morphology (decreased leaf area and biomass) and enhanced drought resistance compared to wild-type plants. The transgenic Arabidopsis were hypersensitive to abscisic acid (ABA) during seed germination, post-germination growth, and seedling development. They had elevated leaf ABA levels under well-watered and dehydrated conditions and their stomata were more sensitive to ABA. Exogenous application of eicosadienoic acid and eicosatrienoic acid can mimic ABA and drought responses in the wild type plants, similar to that found in the transgenic ones. The transcript levels of genes involved in the biosynthesis of ABA (NCED3, ABA1, AAO3) as well as other stress-related genes were upregulated in this transgenic line upon osmotic stress (300 mM mannitol). Taken together, these results indicate that these two eicosapolyenoic acids or their derived metabolites can mitigate the effects of drought in transgenic Arabidopsis, at least in part, through the action of ABA.

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

2013-01-01

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.

2011-12-01

Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

PubMed Central

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

PubMed

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon

2017-10-09

Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing

Elevated [CO2] mitigates the effect of surface drought by stimulating root growth to access sub-soil water.

PubMed

Uddin, Shihab; Löw, Markus; Parvin, Shahnaj; Fitzgerald, Glenn J; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Armstrong, Roger; O'Leary, Garry; Tausz, Michael

2018-01-01

Through stimulation of root growth, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) may facilitate access of crops to sub-soil water, which could potentially prolong physiological activity in dryland environments, particularly because crops are more water use efficient under elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]). This study investigated the effect of drought in shallow soil versus sub-soil on agronomic and physiological responses of wheat to e[CO2] in a glasshouse experiment. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yitpi) was grown in split-columns with the top (0-30 cm) and bottom (31-60 cm; 'sub-soil') soil layer hydraulically separated by a wax-coated, root-penetrable layer under ambient [CO2] (a[CO2], ∼400 μmol mol-1) or e[CO2] (∼700 μmol mol-1) [CO2]. Drought was imposed from stem-elongation in either the top or bottom soil layer or both by withholding 33% of the irrigation, resulting in four water treatments (WW, WD, DW, DD; D = drought, W = well-watered, letters denote water treatment in top and bottom soil layer, respectively). Leaf gas exchange was measured weekly from stem-elongation until anthesis. Above-and belowground biomass, grain yield and yield components were evaluated at three developmental stages (stem-elongation, anthesis and maturity). Compared with a[CO2], net assimilation rate was higher and stomatal conductance was lower under e[CO2], resulting in greater intrinsic water use efficiency. Elevated [CO2] stimulated both above- and belowground biomass as well as grain yield, however, this stimulation was greater under well-watered (WW) than drought (DD) throughout the whole soil profile. Imposition of drought in either or both soil layers decreased aboveground biomass and grain yield under both [CO2] compared to the well-watered treatment. However, the greatest 'CO2 fertilisation effect' was observed when drought was imposed in the top soil layer only (DW), and this was associated with e[CO2]-stimulation of root growth especially in the well-watered bottom

National Standard of the Russian Federation for Space Debris Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loginov, S.; Yakovlev, M.; Mikhailov, M.; Popkova, L.

2009-03-01

Normative and technical document that define requirements for the mitigation of human-produced near-earth space pollution develops in Russian Federation.NATIONAL STANDARD of the Russian Federation GOST R 52925-2008 «SPACE TECHNOLOGY ITEMS. General Requirements on Space Systems for the Mitigation of Human-Produced near-Earth Space Pollution» was approved in 2008 and entered into force since 1st January of 2009. Requirements of this standard harmonized with requirements of «UN SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION GUIDELINESÈ»This standard consists of six parts:- Scope;- References to Standards;- Terms & Definitions;- Abbreviations;- General Provisions;- General Requirements on Space Systems for the Mitigation of Human-Produced near-Earth Space Pollution.

The German drought monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zink, Matthias; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Mai, Juliane; Schäfer, David; Marx, Andreas

2016-07-01

The 2003 drought event in Europe had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. Monitoring soil water availability in near real-time and at high-resolution, i.e., 4 × 4 km2, enables water managers to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. The German drought monitor was established in 2014 as an online platform. It uses an operational modeling system that consists of four steps: (1) a daily update of observed meteorological data by the German Weather Service, with consistency checks and interpolation; (2) an estimation of current soil moisture using the mesoscale hydrological model; (3) calculation of a quantile-based soil moisture index (SMI) based on a 60 year data record; and (4) classification of the SMI into five drought classes ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. Finally, an easy to understand map is produced and published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. Analysis of the ongoing 2015 drought event, which garnered broad media attention, shows that 75% of the German territory underwent drought conditions in July 2015. Regions such as Northern Bavaria and Eastern Saxony, however, have been particularly prone to drought conditions since autumn 2014. Comparisons with historical droughts show that the 2015 event is amongst the ten most severe drought events observed in Germany since 1954 in terms of its spatial extent, magnitude and duration.

Evaluation of strategies for nature-based solutions to drought: a decision support model at the national scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Mike; Ives, Matthew; Hall, Jim

2016-04-01

There is an increasing body of evidence in support of the use of nature based solutions as a strategy to mitigate drought. Restored or constructed wetlands, grasslands and in some cases forests have been used with success in numerous case studies. Such solutions remain underused in the UK, where they are not considered as part of long-term plans for supply by water companies. An important step is the translation of knowledge on the benefits of nature based solutions at the upland/catchment scale into a model of the impact of these solutions on national water resource planning in terms of financial costs, carbon benefits and robustness to drought. Our project, 'A National Scale Model of Green Infrastructure for Water Resources', addresses this issue through development of a model that can show the costs and benefits associated with a broad roll-out of nature based solutions for water supply. We have developed generalised models of both the hydrological effects of various classes and implementations of nature-based approaches and their economic impacts in terms of construction costs, running costs, time to maturity, land use and carbon benefits. Our next step will be to compare this work with our recent evaluation of conventional water infrastructure, allowing a case to be made in financial terms and in terms of security of water supply. By demonstrating the benefits of nature based solutions under multiple possible climate and population scenarios we aim to demonstrate the potential value of using nature based solutions as a component of future long-term water resource plans. Strategies for decision making regarding the selection of nature based and conventional approaches, developed through discussion with government and industry, will be applied to the final model. Our focus is on keeping our work relevant to the requirements of decision-makers involved in conventional water planning. We propose to present the outcomes of our model for the evaluation of nature

The relationship between drought and tourist arrivals: A case study of Kruger National Park, South Africa

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

National parks around the world have been recognised as important sources of nature experiences for both local and international visitors. In South Africa, national parks are similarly important recreational and nature tourism attractions. They offer visitors an unparalleled diversity of tourism opportunities, including game viewing, bush walks and exposure to culture and history. South African National Parks (SANParks), established in 1926, is one of the world’s leading conservation and scientific research bodies and a leading agent in maintaining the country’s indigenous natural environment. The study aims to analyse the correlation between drought and the number of tourist arrivals to the Kruger National Park (KNP). Rainfall data, as well as data on tourist arrivals at KNP for the period from 1963 to 2015 were obtained from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) and SANParks, respectively. Rainfall data were used to determine the drought years at the KNP through computing the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for various stations around the park. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used as a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between drought and tourist arrivals. The results showed that KNP experienced both negative and positive tourist arrivals, although the former was the case, tourist arrivals showed an increasing trend. The correlation relationship showed that 19.36% of the drought years corresponded to a negative change in tourist arrivals to the park. The results obtained confirm that the tourism industry is a fragile industry which is prone to environmental, social and economic state of a region. PMID:29955349

The relationship between drought and tourist arrivals: A case study of Kruger National Park, South Africa.

PubMed

Mathivha, Fhumulani I; Tshipala, Ndivhuwo N; Nkuna, Zanele

2017-01-01

National parks around the world have been recognised as important sources of nature experiences for both local and international visitors. In South Africa, national parks are similarly important recreational and nature tourism attractions. They offer visitors an unparalleled diversity of tourism opportunities, including game viewing, bush walks and exposure to culture and history. South African National Parks (SANParks), established in 1926, is one of the world's leading conservation and scientific research bodies and a leading agent in maintaining the country's indigenous natural environment. The study aims to analyse the correlation between drought and the number of tourist arrivals to the Kruger National Park (KNP). Rainfall data, as well as data on tourist arrivals at KNP for the period from 1963 to 2015 were obtained from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) and SANParks, respectively. Rainfall data were used to determine the drought years at the KNP through computing the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for various stations around the park. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used as a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between drought and tourist arrivals. The results showed that KNP experienced both negative and positive tourist arrivals, although the former was the case, tourist arrivals showed an increasing trend. The correlation relationship showed that 19.36% of the drought years corresponded to a negative change in tourist arrivals to the park. The results obtained confirm that the tourism industry is a fragile industry which is prone to environmental, social and economic state of a region.

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

PubMed

Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

2013-10-01

Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was

Echohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Charles H. Luce; Heidi Asbjornsen; Peter V. Caldwell; John L. Campbell; Gordon E. Grant; Daniel J. Isaak; Steven P. Loheide; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

The relationships among drought, surface water flow, and groundwater recharge are not straightforward for most forest ecosystems due to the strong role that vegetation plays in the forest water balance. Hydrologic responses to drought can be either mitigated or exacerbated by forest vegetation depending upon vegetation water use and how forest population dynamics...

Impacts of drought on grape yields in Western Cape, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, Julio A.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Crespo, Olivier

2016-01-01

Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on simple water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter, SPEI) to identify drought events and used a correlation analysis to identify the relationship between drought and grape yields. A crop simulation model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) was applied at the farm scale to investigate the role of irrigation in mitigating the impacts of drought on grape yield. The model gives a realistic simulation of grape yields. The Western Cape has experienced a series of severe droughts in the past few decades. The severe droughts occurred when a decrease in rainfall occurred simultaneously with an increase in temperature. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appears to be an important driver of drought severity in the Western Cape, because most of the severe droughts occurred in El Niño years. At the district scale, the correlation between drought index and grape yield is weak ( r≈-0.5), but at the farm scale, it is strong ( r≈-0.9). This suggests that many farmers are able to mitigate the impacts of drought on grape yields through irrigation management. At the farm scale, where the impact of drought on grape yields is high, poor yield years coincide with moderate or severe drought periods. The APSIM simulation, which gives a realistic simulation of grape yields at the farm scale, suggests that grape yields become more sensitive to spring and summer droughts in the absence of irrigation. Results of this study may guide decision-making on

Drought mitigation in perennial crops by fertilization and adjustments of regional yield models for future climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantola, I. B.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Masters, M. D.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.

2017-12-01

Increased variability and intensity of precipitation in the Midwest agricultural belt due to climate change is a major concern. The success of perennial bioenergy crops in replacing maize for bioethanol production is dependent on sustained yields that exceed maize, and the marketing of perennial crops often emphasizes the resilience of perennial agriculture to climate stressors. Land conversion from maize for bioethanol to Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) increases yields and annual evapotranspiration rates (ET). However, establishment of miscanthus also increases biome water use efficiency (the ratio between net ecosystem productivity after harvest and ET), due to greater belowground biomass in miscanthus than in maize or soybean. In 2012, a widespread drought reduced the yield of 5-year-old miscanthus plots in central Illinois by 36% compared to the previous two years. Eddy covariance data indicated continued soil water deficit during the hydrologically-normal growing season in 2013 and miscanthus yield failed to rebound as expected, lagging behind pre-drought yields by an average of 53% over the next three years. In early 2014, nitrogen fertilizer was applied to half of mature (7-year-old) miscanthus plots in an effort to improve yields. In plots with annual post-emergence application of 60 kg ha-1 of urea, peak biomass was 29% greater than unfertilized miscanthus in 2014, and 113% greater in 2015, achieving statistically similar yields to the pre-drought average. Regional-scale models of perennial crop productivity use 30-year climate averages that are inadequate for predicting long-term effects of short-term extremes on perennial crops. Modeled predictions of perennial crop productivity incorporating repeated extreme weather events, observed crop response, and the use of management practices to mitigate water deficit demonstrate divergent effects on predicted yields.

Possible Weakening Processes Imposed on California's Earthen Levees under Protracted Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, J. D.; Vahedifard, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-12-01

California is currently suffering from a multiyear extreme drought and the impacts of the drought are anticipated to worsen in a warming climate. The resilience of critical infrastructure under extreme drought conditions is a major concern which has not been well understood. Thus, there is a crucial need to improve our understanding about the potential threats of drought on infrastructure and take subsequent actions in a timely manner to mitigate these threats and adopt our infrastructure for forthcoming extreme events. The need is more pronounced for earthen levees, since their functionality to protect limited water resources and dryland is more critical during drought. A significant amount of California's levee systems are currently operating under a high risk condition. Protracted drought can further threaten the structural competency of these already at-risk levee systems through several thermo-hydro mechanical weakening processes that undermine their stability. Viable information on the implications of these weakening processes, particularly on California's earthen levees, is relatively incomplete. This article discusses, from a geotechnical engineering perspective, how California's protracted drought might threaten the integrity of levee systems through the imposition of several thermo-hydro mechanical weakening processes. Pertinent facts and statistics regarding the drought in California are presented and discussed. Catastrophic levee failures and major damages resulting from drought-induce weakening processes such as shear strength reduction, desiccation cracking, land subsidence and surface erosion, fissuring and soil softening, and soil carbon oxidation are discussed to illustrate the devastating impacts that the California drought might impose on existing earthen levees. This article calls for further research in light of these potential drought-inducing weakening mechanisms to support mitigation strategies for reducing future catastrophic levee failures.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts.

PubMed

Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; Levine, Naomi M; Alves, Luciana F; Bonal, Damien; Camargo, Plinio B; Fitzjarrald, David R; Hayek, Matthew N; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R; da Silva, Rodrigo; Stark, Scott C; Tapajós, Raphael P; Wiedemann, Kenia T; Zhang, Ke; Wofsy, Steven C; Moorcroft, Paul R

2018-05-22

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km 2 ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Mo, K.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Wood, A.

2012-01-01

The charge of the NOAA Drought Task Force is to coordinate and facilitate the various MAPP-funded research efforts with the overall goal of achieving significant advances in understanding and in the ability to monitor and predict drought over North America. In order to achieve this, the task force has developed a Drought Test-bed that individual research groups can use to test/evaluate methods and ideas. Central to this is a focus on three high profile North American droughts (1998-2004 western US drought, 2006-2007 SE US drought, 2011- current Tex-Mex drought) to facilitate collaboration among projects, including the development of metrics to assess the quality of monitoring and prediction products, and the development of an experimental drought monitoring and prediction system that incorporates and assesses recent advances. This talk will review the progress and plans of the task force, including efforts to help advance official national drought products, and the development of early warning systems by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Coordination with other relevant national and international efforts such as the emerging NMME capabilities and the international effort to develop a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) will be discussed.

California Drought Recovery Assessment Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, C. A.; Aghakouchak, A.; Madadgar, S.; Tourian, M. J.

2015-12-01

California has been experiencing its most extreme drought in recent history due to a combination of record high temperatures and exceptionally low precipitation. An estimate for when the drought can be expected to end is needed for risk mitigation and water management. A crucial component of drought recovery assessments is the estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficit. Previous studies on drought recovery have been limited to surface water hydrology (precipitation and/or runoff) for estimating changes in TWS, neglecting the contribution of groundwater deficits to the recovery time of the system. Groundwater requires more time to recover than surface water storage; therefore, the inclusion of groundwater storage in drought recovery assessments is essential for understanding the long-term vulnerability of a region. Here we assess the probability, for varying timescales, of California's current TWS deficit returning to its long-term historical mean. Our method consists of deriving the region's fluctuations in TWS from changes in the gravity field observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. We estimate the probability that meteorological inputs, precipitation minus evaporation and runoff, over different timespans will balance the current GRACE-derived TWS deficit (e.g. in 3, 6, 12 months). This method improves upon previous techniques as the GRACE-derived water deficit comprises all hydrologic sources, including surface water, groundwater, and snow cover. With this empirical probability assessment we expect to improve current estimates of California's drought recovery time, thereby improving risk mitigation.

Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2017-07-01

In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

National Smart Water Grid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beaulieu, R A

The United States repeatedly experiences floods along the Midwest's large rivers and droughts in the arid Western States that cause traumatic environmental conditions with huge economic impact. With an integrated approach and solution these problems can be alleviated. Tapping into the Mississippi River and its tributaries, the world's third largest fresh water river system, during flood events will mitigate the damage of flooding and provide a new source of fresh water to the Western States. The trend of increased flooding on the Midwest's large rivers is supported by a growing body of scientific literature. The Colorado River Basin and themore » western states are experiencing a protracted multi-year drought. Fresh water can be pumped via pipelines from areas of overabundance/flood to areas of drought or high demand. Calculations document 10 to 60 million acre-feet (maf) of fresh water per flood event can be captured from the Midwest's Rivers and pumped via pipelines to the Colorado River and introduced upstream of Lake Powell, Utah, to destinations near Denver, Colorado, and used in areas along the pipelines. Water users of the Colorado River include the cities in southern Nevada, southern California, northern Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Indian Tribes, and Mexico. The proposed start and end points, and routes of the pipelines are documented, including information on right-of-ways necessary for state and federal permits. A National Smart Water Grid{trademark} (NSWG) Project will create thousands of new jobs for construction, operation, and maintenance and save billions in drought and flood damage reparations tax dollars. The socio-economic benefits of NWSG include decreased flooding in the Midwest; increased agriculture, and recreation and tourism; improved national security, transportation, and fishery and wildlife habitats; mitigated regional climate change and global warming such as increased carbon capture; decreased salinity in Colorado River water crossing

A national-scale analysis of the impacts of drought on water quality in UK rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, G.; Howden, N. J. K.; Freer, J. E.; Whitehead, P. G.; Bussi, G.

2015-12-01

Impacts of droughts on water quality qre difficult to quanitify but are essential to manage ecosystems and maintain public water supply. During drought, river water quality is significantly changed by increased residence times, reduced dilution and enhanced biogeochemical processes. But, the impact severity varies between catchments and depends on multiple factors including the sensitivity of the river to drought conditions, anthropogenic influences in the catchment and different delivery patterns of key nutrient, contaminant and mineral sources. A key constraint is data availability for key water quality parameters such that impacts of drought periods on certain determinands can be identified. We use national-scale water quality monitoring data to investigate the impacts of drought periods on water quality in the United Kingdom (UK). The UK Water Quality Sampling Harmonised Monitoring Scheme (HMS) dataset consists of >200 UK sites with weekly to monthly sampling of many water quality variables over the past 40 years. This covers several major UK droughts in 1975-1976, 1983-1984,1989-1992, 1995 and 2003, which cover severity, spatial and temporal extent, and how this affects the temporal impact of the drought on water quality. Several key water quality parameters, including water temperature, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, orthophosphate, chlorophyll and pesticides, are selected from the database. These were chosen based on their availability for many of the sites, high sampling resolution and importance to the drinking water function and ecological status of the river. The water quality time series were then analysed to investigate whether water quality during droughts deviated significantly from non-drought periods and examined how the results varied spatially, for different drought periods and for different water quality parameters. Our results show that there is no simple conclusion as to the effects of drought on water quality in UK rivers; impacts are

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yixuan; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Xu; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping

2018-02-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are investigated for Luanhe River basin, using monthly precipitation data from 26 stations covering the common period of 1958-2011. The spatial pattern of drought was assessed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on 3- and 12-month time scales. In addition, annual SPI and seasonal SPIs (including spring SPI, summer SPI, autumn SPI, and winter SPI) were also defined and considered in this study to characterize seasonal and annual drought conditions, respectively. For all seven SPI cases, three distinctive sub-regions with different temporal evolutions of droughts are well identified, respectively, representing the southeast, middle, and northwest of the Luanhe River basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test with a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure and Sen's method were used to determine the temporal trends in the annual and seasonal SPI time series. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed for further detecting the periodical features of drought condition in each sub-region. Results of MK and Sen's tests show a general tendency of intensification in summer drought over the entire basin, while a significant mitigating trend in spring drought. On the whole, an aggravating trend of inter-annual drought is discovered across the basin. Based on the CWT, the drought variability in the basin is generally dominated by 16- to 64-month cycles, and the 2- to 6-year cycles appear to be obvious when concerned with annual and seasonal droughts. Furthermore, a cross wavelet analysis was performed to examine the possible links between the drought conditions and large-scale climate patterns. The teleconnections of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO show significant influences on the regional droughts principally concentrated in the 16- to 64-month period, maybe responsible for the physical causes of the cyclical behavior of drought occurrences. PDO and AMO also

Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

2015-12-01

Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea

Monitoring and forecasting the 2009-2010 severe drought in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Tang, Q.; Liu, X.; Leng, G.; Li, Z.; Cui, H.

2015-12-01

From the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2010, an unprecedented drought swept across southwest China (SW) and led to a severe shortage in drinking water and a huge loss to regional economy. Monitoring and predicting the severe drought with several months in advance is of critical importance for such hydrological disaster assessment, preparation and mitigation. In this study, we attempted to carry out a model-based hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework, and assessed its skill in capturing the evolution of the SW drought in 2009-2010. Using the satellite-based meteorological forcings and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, the drought conditions were assessed in a near-real-time manner based on a 62-year (1952-2013) retrospective simulation, wherein the satellite data was adjusted by a gauge-based forcing to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected seasonal forecasting outputs from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) was tentatively applied for a seasonal hydrologic prediction and its predictive skill was overall evaluated relative to a traditional Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method with lead time varying from 1 to 6 months. The results show that the climate model-driven hydrologic predictability is generally limited to 1-month lead time and exhibits negligible skill improvement relative to ESP during this drought event, suggesting the initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) play a dominant role in forecasting performance. The research highlights the value of the framework in providing accurate IHCs in a real-time manner which will greatly benefit drought early-warning.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Drought of 1980-82 in southeast Florida with comparison to the 1961-62 and 1970-71 droughts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waller, B.G.

1985-01-01

South-central Florida (the Kissimmee Basin) experienced a severe drought during 1980-82, causing Lake Okeechobee--the largest surface-water storage area in south Florida--to reach the lowest stage ever recorded, 9.75 feet above sea level, on July 29, 1981. A prolonged period of deficient rainfall extended from June 1980 to March 1982. On the southeast coast, drought conditions were mitigated on August 16, 1981, when rainfall from Tropical Storm Dennis replenished the coastal aquifers and filled the water conservation areas to near scheduled levels. South Dade County was the only area in south Florida not affected by the drought. Rainfall in the southeast coastal areas had a statistical recurrence ranging from 5 to 20 years whereas the recurrence intervals from some stations in south-central Florida were in excess of 100 years. The 1980-81 drought in southeast Flrodia was not as severe as the 1961-62 or the 1970-71 droughts in terms of rainfall conditions or the effect on water levels. The effects of the drought were less severe because of a combination of water-management practices and periodic rainfall during the otherwise rain-deficient period. (USGS)

Defining snow drought and why it matters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harpold, Adrian; Dettinger, Michael; Rajagopal, Seshadri

2017-01-01

On 12 February, water resource managers at the Oroville Dam issued an evacuation warning that forced some 180,000 Californians to relocate to higher ground. The story of how conditions got to this point involves several factors, but two clearly stand out: the need to prevent water shortages during a record drought, followed by one of the wettest October–February periods in California history.The situation at Oroville Dam highlights difficulties that many reservoir managers face in managing flood risks while simultaneously storing water to mitigate severe droughts and smaller snowpacks. Central to this difficulty is the idea of “snow drought,” a term that’s gaining traction in both scientific and lay literature.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Drought Analysis for Kuwait Using Standardized Precipitation Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Implementation of adequate measures to assess and monitor droughts is recognized as a major matter challenging researchers involved in water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the hydrologic drought characteristics from the historical rainfall records of Kuwait with arid environment by employing the criterion of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A wide range of monthly total precipitation data from January 1967 to December 2009 is used for the assessment. The computation of the SPI series is performed for intermediate- and long-time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The drought severity and duration are also estimated. The bivariate probability distribution for these two drought characteristics is constructed by using Clayton copula. It has been shown that the drought SPI series for the time scales examined have no systematic trend component but a seasonal pattern related to rainfall data. The results are used to perform univariate and bivariate frequency analyses for the drought events. The study will help evaluating the risk of future droughts in the region, assessing their consequences on economy, environment, and society, and adopting measures for mitigating the effect of droughts. PMID:25386598

Drought on the Bogard Ranger District, Lassen National Forest

Treesearch

Raymond D. Ratliff; Jack N. Reppert

1965-01-01

Three of the five years from 1959 to 1963 were drought years in the Bogard Ranier District in northeastern California. Precipitation records for 28 years from the Bogard area show that (a) drought conditions were present in one-third of the years; (b) drought occurred in about 54 percent of the falls and springs, 36 percent or the winters, and 50 percent or the...

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Key mechanisms of metabolic changes in mountain pine and larch under drought in the Swiss National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churakova, Olga; Bigler, Christof; Bryukhanova, Marina; Siegwolf, Rolf

2014-05-01

Forests are of great ecological, economic and social importance worldwide. In many regions they have been recently affected by water deficits during summer droughts due to increasing temperatures and shortage of precipitation (Allen et al. 2010). Climate models predict that drought frequency will continue to increase during the 21st century and beyond (CH 2011). Since the foundation of the Swiss National Park (SNP) in 1914 these forests have not been managed any more, which allows to study natural processes in these forest ecosystems. Since the 1990s, annual and spring temperatures increased in the SNP up to 0.5 ºC and 1.02 ºC, respectively, and average summer temperature increased up to 0.6 ºC. Annual precipitation decreased by 81 mm compared to the mean values (927 mm) from 1917 to 1989. Therefore, detailed studies of drought effects on the physiological functioning of trees over the last decades are needed. Recently, mortality processes of mountain pines were observed in the Swiss National Park (Bigler, Rigling 2013). It is of great interest to investigate and compare the physiological responses of mountain pine and larch to drought and to understand the mechanisms behind the mortality processes. The goal of our study is to investigate the key mechanisms of tree physiological responses to drought in the SNP using state-of-the-art methods of classical dendrochronology, tree physiology, stable isotope, and compound-specific isotope analyses. Long-term responses of mountain pine and larch trees from north- and south-facing sites to drought will be inferred from tree-ring width data. Based on climatic data a drought index will be calculated and reconstructed back in time. New chronologies for stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios derived from both pine and larch tree-ring cellulose will provide retrospective insight into the long-term whole-plant physiological control of gas exchange derived from estimates of stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate and

Remote Sensing Approach to Drought Monitoring to Inform Range Management at the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Vilaly, M. M.; Van Leeuwen, W. J.; Didan, K.; Marsh, S. E.; Crimmins, , M. A.

2012-12-01

The Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation are situated in the Northeastern corner of Arizona in the Colorado River Plateau. For more than a decade, the area has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. Moreover, these persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock production activities, and make this region sensitive to inter-annual climate variability and change. The limited hydroclimatic observations, bolstered by numerous anecdotal drought impact reports, indicate that the region has been suffering through an almost 15-year long drought which is threatening its socio-economic development. The objective of this research is to employ remote sensing data to monitor the ongoing drought and inform management and decision-making. The overall goals of this study are to develop a common understanding of the current status of drought across the area in order to understand the existing seasonal and inter-annual relationships between climate variability and vegetation dynamics. To analyze and investigate vegetation responses to climate variability, land use practices, and environmental factors in Hopi and Navajo nation during the last 22 years, a drought assessment framework was developed that integrates climate and topographical data with land surface remote sensing time series data. Multi-sensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series data were acquired from the vegetation index and phenology project (vip.arizona.edu) from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km, were analyzed to characterize the intra-annual changes of vegetation, seasonal phenology and inter-annual vegetation response to climate variability and environmental factors. Due to the low number of retrieval obtained from TIMESAT software, we developed a new framework that can maximize the number of retrieval. Four vegetation development stages, annual integrated NDVI (Net Primary

Obama administration's National Drought Resilience Partnership to help

Science.gov Websites

strategies in critical sectors such as agriculture, municipal water systems, energy, recreation, tourism and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. "But our work isn't done and we can always better prepare for the intensity and the number of drought events that impact agriculture. "The impacts of drought can be

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Risk to Drought in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magana, V.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the major meteorological hazards in Mexico given the semiarid and arid conditions in most of its territory. The recent drought event between 2011 and 2013 led to one of the major socioeconomic and environmental crisis in recent years in relation to water deficit mainly in northern Mexico. But the impacts of meteorological droughts are not only related to precipitation deficit, but to the water crisis context in which the climatic anomaly occurs. In other words, the drought hazard occurs in a vulnerability context that results in risks at levels that translate into hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts. The dynamics of prolonged droughts in Mexico has been studied in relation to low frequency oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (Méndez and Magaña 2010). On the other hand, the vulnerability to drought has been characterized by means of socioeconomic and physical indicators that reflect the dynamical and multifactorial characteristics of this element (Neri and Magaña 2016). The combination of hazard and vulnerability led to an estimate of risk to drought that explains the drought impacts in recent years. The Mexican government has developed a national strategy to prevent or at least ameliorate the impacts of droughts by establishing the National Program against Drought (PRONACOSE) for each one of the thirteen hydrologic administrative regions that compose the Mexican territory. The main idea behind PRONACOSE is to respond to drought as it reaches a higher level of intensity. Some of the protocols in PRONACOSE are based on a risk analysis and proposals by water stakeholders. It is found that PRONACOSE could better work if a risk management preventive scheme is implemented making use of the knowledge on the predictability of drought in Mexico on various time scales. The examples of potential risk to drought management schemes in Mexico for some of the hydrologic administrative regions are presented.

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%-267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite: Applications for Volcano Rapid Response, Influenza Outbreak Prediction, and Drought Onset Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, S. E.; Fetzer, E. J.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Olsen, E. T.; Licata, S. J.; Hall, J. R.; Penteado, P. F.; Realmuto, V. J.; Thrastarson, H. T.; Teixeira, J.; Granger, S. L.; Behrangi, A.; Farahmand, A.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) has been returning daily global observations of Earth's atmospheric constituents and properties since 2002. With its 15-year data record and near real-time capability, AIRS data are being used in the development of applications that fall within many of the NASA Applied Science focus areas. An automated alert system for volcanic plumes has been developed that triggers on threshold breaches of SO2, ash and dust in granules of AIRS data. The system generates a suite of granule-scale maps that depict both plume and clouds, all accessible from the AIRS web site. Alerts are sent to a curated list of volcano community members, and links to views in NASA Worldview and Google Earth are also available. Seasonal influenza epidemics are major public health concern with millions of cases of severe illness and large economic impact. Recent studies have highlighted the role of absolute or specific humidity as a likely player in the seasonal nature of these outbreaks. A quasi-operational influenza outbreak prediction system has been developed based on the SIRS model which uses AIRS and NCEP humidity data, Center for Disease Control reports on flu and flu-like illnesses, and results from Google Flu Trends. Work is underway to account for diffusion (spatial) in addition to the temporal spreading of influenza. The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is generated weekly by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and is used by policymakers for drought decision-making. AIRS data have demonstrated utility in monitoring the development and detection of meteorological drought with both AIRS-derived standardized vapor pressure deficit and standardized relative humidity, showing early detection lead times of up to two months. An agreement was secured with the NDMC to begin a trial period using AIRS products in the production of the USDM, and in July of 2017 the operational delivery of weekly CONUS AIRS images of Relative Humidity, Surface Air Temperature

Assessing the effectiveness of Multi-Sector Partnerships to manage droughts: The case of the Jucar river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, María.; Máñez Costa, María.; Andreu, Joaquín.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Haro-Monteagudo, David; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Cremades, Roger

2017-07-01

South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships (MSPs) has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyze the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the MSP for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, its effectiveness on drought management is demonstrated. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyze the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005-2008).

Drought impacts on children's respiratory health in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Smith, Lauren T.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Sabel, Clive E.; Nakaya, Tomoki

2014-01-01

Drought conditions in Amazonia are associated with increased fire incidence, enhancing aerosol emissions with degradation in air quality. Quantifying the synergic influence of climate and human-driven environmental changes on human health is, therefore, critical for identifying climate change adaptation pathways for this vulnerable region. Here we show a significant increase (1.2%–267%) in hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in children under-five in municipalities highly exposed to drought. Aerosol was the primary driver of hospitalisations in drought affected municipalities during 2005, while human development conditions mitigated the impacts in 2010. Our results demonstrated that drought events deteriorated children's respiratory health particularly during 2005 when the drought was more geographically concentrated. This indicates that if governments act on curbing fire usage and effectively plan public health provision, as a climate change adaptation procedure, health quality would improve and public expenditure for treatment would decrease in the region during future drought events. PMID:24430803

Mapping Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, F. S.; Guzman, A.; Johnson, L.; Rosevelt, C.; Verdin, J. P.; Dwyer, J. L.; Mueller, R.; Zakzeski, A.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Wallace, C.; Jones, J.; Windell, S.; Urness, J.; Teaby, A.; Hamblin, D.; Post, K. M.; Nemani, R. R.

2014-12-01

The ongoing drought in California has substantially reduced surface water supplies for millions of acres of irrigated farmland in California's Central Valley. Rapid assessment of drought impacts on agricultural production can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to requests for local water transfers, county drought disaster designations, and allocation of emergency funds to mitigate drought impacts. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and increases in idle acreage associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. We describe an approach for monthly and seasonal mapping of uncultivated agricultural acreage developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, NASA, and the California Department of Water Resources to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of uncultivated agricultural acreage from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to timeseries of data from Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI, and MODIS. Our effort has been focused on development of indicators of drought impacts in the March - August timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted across 640 fields from March - September, 2014. We present the algorithm along with updated results from the accuracy assessment, and discuss potential applications to other regions.

Predicting the Vegetation Condition of the 2015/16 Drought across the Great Horn of Africa (GHA): Model Evaluation and Preliminary Result

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Bayissa, Y. A.; Demisse, G. B.; Wardlow, B.

2017-12-01

The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) funded by NASA has developed a new tool for predicting the general vegetation condition called: the "Vegetation outlook for the Greater Africa (VegOut-GHA)." In this study, the 2015/16 drought across the GHA that has been considered one of the worst in decades across the region was assessed and evaluated using the VegOut-GHA models and products. The VegOut-GHA maps (hindsight prediction maps) for the growing season (June - September) were generated to predict a standardized seasonal greenness (SSG) that is based on seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (a measure that represents a general indicator of relative vegetation health within a growing season). The vegetation condition outlooks were made for 10-day, 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month in hindsight and compared to the observed values of the SSG. The VegOut-GHA model was evaluated and compared to crop yield and other satellite-derived data (e.g., standardized seasonal precipitation based on "Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS)" datasets for GHA). Thus, the VegOut-GHA model and its evaluation results will be discussed based on the 2015/2016 drought season in the region. This preliminary results suggest an opportunity to improve management of drought risk in agriculture and food security.

The impact of drought on the association between food security and mental health in a nationally representative Australian sample.

PubMed

Friel, Sharon; Berry, Helen; Dinh, Huong; O'Brien, Léan; Walls, Helen L

2014-10-24

The association between food insecurity and mental health is established. Increasingly, associations between drought and mental health and drought and food insecurity have been observed in a number of countries. The impact of drought on the association between food insecurity and mental health has received little attention. Population-based study using data from a nationally representative panel survey of Australian adults in which participants report behaviour, health, social, economic and demographic information annually. Exposure to drought was modelled using annual rainfall data during Australia's 'Big Dry'. Regression modelling examined associations between drought and three indicative measures of food insecurity and mental health, controlling for confounding factors. People who reported missing meals due to financial stress reported borderline moderate/high distress levels. People who consumed below-average levels of core foods reported more distress than those who consumed above the average level, while people consuming discretionary foods above the average level reported greater distress than those consuming below the threshold. In all drought exposure categories, people missing meals due to cost reported higher psychological distress than those not missing meals. Compared to drought-unadjusted psychological distress levels, in most drought categories, people consuming higher-than-average discretionary food levels reported higher levels of distress. Exposure to drought moderates the association between measures of food insecurity and psychological distress, generally increasing the distress level. Climate adaptation strategies that consider social, nutrition and health impacts are needed.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

2015-01-01

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, J.; Singleton, A.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Barbosa, P.

2012-12-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and improving medium to long-range probabilistic drought forecasting products. Probabilistic forecasts are attractive in that they provide an estimate of the range of uncertainty in a particular forecast. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo

2013-04-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index.

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-07-08

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation's responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April-October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

Agricultural drought assessment using remotely sensed data in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, S. T.; Chen, C. F.; Chen, C. R.

2017-12-01

Central America is one of the world's regions most vulnerable to negative effects of agricultural drought due to impacts of climate change. Famers in the region have been confronting risks of crop damages and production losses due to intense droughts throughout the growing seasons. Drought information is thus deemed vital for policymakers to assess their crop management strategies in tackling issues of food insecurity in the region. This study aimed to delineate drought-prone areas associated with cropped areas from eight-day MODIS data in 2016 using the commonly used temperature dryness vegetation index (TVDI), calculated based on the land surface temperature (LST) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. The advantages of MODIS data for agricultural drought monitoring at a national/regional scale are that it has the spatial resolution (500 m-1 km) and relatively high temporal resolution of eight days, but the data are often contaminated by clouds. Detecting and reconstructing the data under cloud-affected areas are generally a challenging task without any robust methods up to date. In this study, we reconstructed the eight-day MODIS EVI and LST data for agricultural drought assessment using machine-learning approaches. The reconstructed data were then used for drought assessment. The TVDI results verified with the soil moisture active passive (SMAP) data showed that the correlation coefficient values (r) obtained for the apante season (December-March) were between -0.4 to -0.8, while the values for the primera season (April-August) and postrera season (September-November) were in ranges of 0 to -0.6 and -0.2 to -0.7, respectively. The larger area of very dry soil moisture was generally observed during the dry season (December-April) and declined in the rainy season (May-November). The cropping areas affected by severe and moderate droughts observed for the primera season were respectively 11,846 km2 and 60,557 km2, while the values for the postera season were 14

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

The National Study of Water Management during Drought: A Research Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

Planning: June 1990 53 Table 11-6 Effectiveness of Drought Response Measures Implemented in Various Locations 61 Table 11-7 The Structure of Existing...Status of Drought Planning June 1990 52 Figure III-I The Short Term Effects of Severe Drought on the Aggregate Economy 72 Figure 111-2 Rationing in the...Market for Water 73 Figure 111-3 Soil-Water-Plant System 83 Figure 111-4 Farm System 87 Figure 1II-5 Economic Effects of Drought on Navigation 98

Comprehensive Analysis of Drought Persistence, Hazard, and Recovery across the CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Drought is a creeping intertwined natural hazard affecting society more than any other natural disaster and causing enormous damages on economy and ecosystems. Better understanding of potential drought hazard can help water managers and stakeholders devising mitigation plans to minimize the adverse effects of droughts. In this study, soil moisture, simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, is used to analyze the probability of agricultural drought with different severities across the CONUS. Due to the persistence of soil moisture, a drought episode at a particular time is affected by its earlier status; therefore, this study has utilized a Copula function to model the selected hydrologic variable over the time. The probability of drought intensity for each unit is presented spatially. If the unit remains in the drought condition at the same or lower intensity, drought persists and if it improves above a pre-defined threshold, the unit recovers. Results show that the west of US is more vulnerable to drought persistence in summer and spring while the Midwest and Northeast of US are experiencing drought persistence in fall and winter. In addition, the analysis reveals that as the intensity of drought in a given season decreases the following season has higher chance of recovery.

Effects of human water management on California drought risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaogang; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko; Sheffield, Justin

2017-04-01

Contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of hydrological drought over California is investigated using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model at 0.5˚ resolution for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that including water management in the modeling framework results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ˜50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of the human impact on drought. A detailed study of the relative attribution of different types of human activities (e.g., groundwater pumping, reservoir operation and irrigation) on changes in drought risk over California is conducted through a higher 10 km resolution simulation. This hydrological modeling, attribution and risk assessment framework is further extended to other drought-prone areas and major drought events in the contiguous U.S., including the 2006/2007 southeastern U.S. drought, the 2011 Texas-northern Mexico drought over the southern plains and the 2012 drought over the central Great Plains.

Carbon uptake by mature Amazon forests has mitigated Amazon nations' carbon emissions.

PubMed

Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W

2017-12-01

Several independent lines of evidence suggest that Amazon forests have provided a significant carbon sink service, and also that the Amazon carbon sink in intact, mature forests may now be threatened as a result of different processes. There has however been no work done to quantify non-land-use-change forest carbon fluxes on a national basis within Amazonia, or to place these national fluxes and their possible changes in the context of the major anthropogenic carbon fluxes in the region. Here we present a first attempt to interpret results from ground-based monitoring of mature forest carbon fluxes in a biogeographically, politically, and temporally differentiated way. Specifically, using results from a large long-term network of forest plots, we estimate the Amazon biomass carbon balance over the last three decades for the different regions and nine nations of Amazonia, and evaluate the magnitude and trajectory of these differentiated balances in relation to major national anthropogenic carbon emissions. The sink of carbon into mature forests has been remarkably geographically ubiquitous across Amazonia, being substantial and persistent in each of the five biogeographic regions within Amazonia. Between 1980 and 2010, it has more than mitigated the fossil fuel emissions of every single national economy, except that of Venezuela. For most nations (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname) the sink has probably additionally mitigated all anthropogenic carbon emissions due to Amazon deforestation and other land use change. While the sink has weakened in some regions since 2000, our analysis suggests that Amazon nations which are able to conserve large areas of natural and semi-natural landscape still contribute globally-significant carbon sequestration. Mature forests across all of Amazonia have contributed significantly to mitigating climate change for decades. Yet Amazon nations have not directly benefited from providing this global scale

A Remotely Sensed Global Terrestrial Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Q.; Zhao, M.; Kimball, J. S.; McDowell, N. G.; Running, S. W.

2012-12-01

Regional drought and flooding from extreme climatic events are increasing in frequency and severity, with significant adverse eco-social impacts. Detecting and monitoring drought at regional to global scales remains challenging, despite the availability of various drought indices and widespread availability of potentially synergistic global satellite observational records. We developed a method to generate a near-real-time remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (DSI) to monitor and detect drought globally at 1-km spatial resolution and regular 8-day, monthly and annual frequencies. The new DSI integrates and exploits information from current operational satellite based terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) and Vegetation greenness Index (NDVI) products, which are sensitive to vegetation water stress. Specifically, our approach determines the annual DSI departure from its normal (2000-2011) using the remotely sensed ratio of ET to potential ET (PET) and NDVI. The DSI results were derived globally and captured documented major regional droughts over the last decade, including severe events in Europe (2003), the Amazon (2005 and 2010), and Russia (2010). The DSI corresponded favorably (r=0.43) with the precipitation based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), while both indices captured similar wetting and drying patterns. The DSI was also correlated with satellite based vegetation net primary production (NPP) records, indicating that the combined use of these products may be useful for assessing water supply and ecosystem interactions, including drought impacts on crop yields and forest productivity. The remotely-sensed global terrestrial DSI enhances capabilities for near-real-time drought monitoring to assist decision makers in regional drought assessment and mitigation efforts, and without many of the constraints of more traditional drought monitoring methods.

Increasing Vulnerability to Drought and Climate Change on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiza, M. M.; Kelley, K. B.; Francis, H.

2011-12-01

The Navajo Nation of Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah, is an ecologically sensitive semi-arid to arid area where rapid growth of one of the largest population of Native Americans is outstripping the capacity of the land to sustain them. Recent drought conditions, combined with increasing temperatures, are significantly altering the habitability of a region already characterized by harsh living conditions. In addition to altered landscape conditions due to climatic change, drought, and varying land use practices over the last 200 years, the Navajo people have been affected by land use policies and harsh economic conditions that weaken their cultural fabric. Increasing aridity combined with drought threaten the very existence of Navajo culture and the survival of traditional Navajo communities. People presently living on these Native lands are unique in American society as their traditional lifestyle requires intimate knowledge of the ecosystem, knowledge that has been passed on for generations through oral traditions. We present data from the lifelong observations of 73 Native American elders that provide a record of the changes in plants and animals, water availability, weather, and sand or dust storms. This information is used to complement the scant long-term meteorological records and historical documentation for the region to further refine our understanding of the historical trends and local impacts of climate change and drought. Among the most cited changes is a long-term decrease in the amount of annual snowfall over the past century, a transition from wet conditions to dry conditions in the 1940s, and a decline in surface water features. The lack of available water, in addition to changing socioeconomic conditions, was mentioned as a leading cause for the decline in the ability to grow corn and other crops. Other noted changes include the disappearance of springs, and of plant and animal populations (particularly medicinal plants, cottonwood trees, beavers

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on different hydrological drought characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie

2015-04-01

The natural hazard drought can have severe impacts on a variety of sectors and at a variety of scales. Droughts, here defined as below average water availability, occur everywhere. However, the impact of a drought event is not only influenced by its severity but also by the vulnerability of an area to droughts. Research in catchments with natural flow conditions is crucial to gain process understanding about hydrological droughts. However, the locations of catchments with natural flow are often not representative for regions with a socioeconomic sector that is highly vulnerable to droughts. In these more vulnerable areas, human activities like groundwater extraction can intensify hydrological droughts. On the other hand, human activities can also mitigate or limit the magnitude of drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of different anthropogenic influences on streamflow droughts by comparing hydrological drought characteristics between catchments with natural streamflow and with regulated or otherwise altered streamflow. The study is based on a large set of streamflow records from catchments in Germany, the UK and the USA with either known anthropogenic influences or natural streamflow conditions. Different drought characteristics (duration, deficit, frequency and timing of drought events) are computed for the selected stations. The drought characteristics in catchments influenced by various anthropogenic activities are stratified by the characteristics of anthropogenic influence, but also by similar physical and climatological properties. These stratified groups are then compared to drought characteristics in natural catchments with similar properties. Results show both negative and positive impacts of different human activities on droughts. For example, urbanized areas with low flow regulations show hydrological droughts with shorter durations and lower deficit volumes compared to nearby natural catchments, while records downstream of

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

institutional level of mandated institutes of lower Mekong countries. This is turn would help countries to prepare for and respond to drought situations by taking short and long-term risk mitigation measures such as adjusting cropping calendars, rainwater harvesting, and so on.

Lessons Learned from the California Drought (1987-1992). National Study of Water Management During Drought

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-09-01

are followed (p. 192). * Market forces are an effective wa) of reallocating restricted water supplies (p. 193). xix TABLE 1 (Continued) SUMMARY OF...LESSNS LEARNED Confirmed Lessons of Previous Droughts "* Water in the aquifers continues to be the most effective strategic weapon against drought (p. 194...Water Code. This act was known as Assembly Bill (AB) 797 and became effective on January 1, 1984. The 300 urban agencies that have to prepare and adopt

Mitigation Policy Scenario of Space Debris Threat Related with National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiansyah, Herdis; Frimawaty, Evy; Munir, Ahmad

2016-02-01

The development of air space recently entered a new phase, when the space issues correlated with the future of a country. In past time, the space authorization was related with advancing technology by many space mission and various satellite launchings, or it could be said that who ruled technology will rule the space. Therefore, the numerous satellites in the space could be a threat for the countries which are mainly located in the path of the satellite, especially in the equatorial region including Indonesia. This study aims to create a policy scenario in mitigating the threat of space debris. The results showed that although space debris was not threatened national security for now, but the potential and its impact on the future potentially harmful. The threats of orbit circulation for some experts considered as a threat for national security, because its danger potential which caused by space debris could significantly damage the affected areas. However, until now Indonesia has no comprehensive mitigation strategy for space matters although it has been ratified by the United Nations Convention.

Drought evolution: greater and faster impacts on blue water than on green water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.; Orth, R.

2017-12-01

Drought propagates through the terrestrial water cycle, affecting different interlinked geospheres which have so far been mostly investigated separately and without direct comparison. By use of comprehensive multi-decadal data from >400 near-natural catchments along a steep climate gradient across Europe we here analyze drought propagation from precipitation (deficits) through soil moisture to runoff (blue water) and evapotranspiration (green water). We show that soil-moisture droughts reduce runoff stronger and faster than evapotranspiration. While runoff responds within weeks, evapotranspiration can be unaffected for months, or even entirely as in central and northern Europe. Understanding these different drought pathways towards blue and green water resources contributes to improve food and water security and offers early warning potential to mitigate (future) drought impacts on society and ecosystems.

Ocimum sanctum leaf extract induces drought stress tolerance in rice

PubMed Central

Pandey, Veena; Ansari, M.W.; Tula, Suresh; Sahoo, R.K.; Bains, Gurdeep; Kumar, J.; Tuteja, Narendra; Shukla, Alok

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Ocimum leaves are highly enriched in antioxidant components. Thus, its leaf extract, if applied in plants, is believed to efficiently scavenge ROS, thereby preventing oxidative damage under drought stress. Thus, the present study was performed in kharif 2013 and rabi 2014 season to evaluate the effect of aqueous leaf extract of Ocimum sanctum against drought stress in 2 rice genotype under glass house conditions. Here we show that various morpho- physiological (chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf rolling score, leaf tip burn, number of senesced leaves and total dry matter) and biochemical parameters (proline, malondialdehyde and superoxide dismutase content) were amended by Ocimum treatment in both the seasons. Application of Ocimum extract increased expression of dehydrin genes, while reducing expression of aquaporin genes in drought stressed rice plant. Thus, application of Ocimum leaf extract under drought stress can be suggested as a promising strategy to mitigate drought stress in economical, accessible and ecofriendly manner. PMID:26890603

Entropy-Aided Evaluation of Meteorological Droughts Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Hu, Zengyun; Xie, Ping; Li, Xinxin

2018-01-01

Evaluation of drought and its spatial distribution is essential to develop mitigation measures. In this study, we employed the entropy index to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts over China. Entropy values, with a reliable hydrological and geographical basis, are closely related to the months of precipitation deficit and its mean magnitude and can thus represent the physical formation of droughts. The value of entropy index can be roughly classified as <0.35, 0.36-0.90, and >0.90, reflecting high, middle, and low occurrence probabilities of droughts. The accumulated precipitation deficits, based on the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index at the 1, 3, 6, and 12 month scales, consistently increase with entropy decrease, no matter considering the moderately, severely, or extremely dry conditions. Therefore, Northwest China and North China, with smaller entropy values, have higher occurrence probability of droughts than South China, with a break at 38°N latitude. The aggravating droughts in North China and Southwest China over recent decades are represented by the increase in both the occurrence frequency and the magnitude. The entropy, determined by absolute magnitude of the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as its scatter and skewness characteristics, is easily calculated and can be an effective index for evaluating drought and its spatial distribution. We therefore identified dominant thresholds for entropy values and statistical characteristics of precipitation deficit, which would help evaluate the occurrence probability of droughts worldwide.

Advancing drought monitoring using a Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.

2016-12-01

Drought as a natural hazard, increasingly threatens the sustainability of regional water resources around the world. Given current trends in climate variability and change, droughts are likely to continue and increase. One of the effective ways to mitigate drought impacts may be to use a Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) to improve understanding of the factors that drive the onset and development of drought conditions at local levels would enable planners and end users to more effectively manage and meter out limited water resources. During the presentation, the author will propose a methodological approach to apply sUAS for drought monitoring along with federal regulations and policies.

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-01-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

Simulating US agriculture in a modern Dust Bowl drought.

PubMed

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua

2016-12-12

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather 1-3 , and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts 4,5 . The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation 6 and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses ∼50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by ∼25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Toreti, A.

2017-06-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat. In this study, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat yield anomalies (at global and national scales) from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (the latter capturing both excessively dry and wet conditions), we have developed a composite indicator that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains a significant portion (more than 40%) of the inter-annual production variability. By quantifying the contribution of national yield anomalies to global fluctuations, we have found that just two concurrent yield anomalies affecting the larger producers of the world could be responsible for more than half of the global annual fluctuations. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Moreover, in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. We have also performed the same analysis at the subnational level for France, which is the largest wheat producer of the European Union, and home to a range of climatic zones. Large subnational variability of inter-annual wheat yield is mostly captured by the heat and water stress indicators, consistently with the country-level result.

Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

2012-04-01

The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide

Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

PubMed Central

Li, Zheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Huang, Kaicheng; Gao, Shan; Wu, Hao; Luo, Hui

2015-01-01

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months). When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October). The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages. PMID:26184243

The Impacts of Typical Drought Events on Terrestrial Vegetation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Wu, J.; Zhou, H.; Han, X.

2018-04-01

In our study, according to the statistical results of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we chose two drought events which occurred in the North China during 2001 and in the Southwest China from 2009 to 2010. And two of the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) products had been used to evaluate the impacts of drought on vegetation, including the leaf area index (LAI) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR). The results show that: (1) In the development process of a drought event, the anomaly of remote sensing parameters (LAI and FAPAR) usually falls firstly and then rises as the drought changes from moderate to severe and then to moderate. This indicates that the effects of drought on vegetation remote sensing parameters are closely related to the severity of drought disaster. (2) The response of different vegetation types to the drought disaster is different. Compared with the forests, the response of grasslands to drought disaster is earlier. For example, the duration affected by drought disaster in grassland is longer 1/3 than the forests in the Southwest China. (3) Irrigation is an effective measure to mitigate the effects of drought. Irrigated croplands are less affected by drought than non-irrigated croplands and grasslands. In the North China, the decrease amplitude of irrigated croplands' remote sensing parameters is about half of non-irrigated croplands'.

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang; Obringer, Renee; Wei, Chehan; Chen, Nengcheng; Niyogi, Dev

2017-03-01

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation.

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiang; Obringer, Renee; Wei, Chehan; Chen, Nengcheng; Niyogi, Dev

2017-01-01

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation. PMID:28294189

Drought Resilience and Water Conservation Technical Brief

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In many areas of the US, the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events are increasing, this brief highlights EPA drought and conservation activities across the nation and includes links to additional materials and reference documents.

Institutional adaptation to drought: the case of Fars Agricultural Organization.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Marzieh; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-09-30

Recurrent droughts in arid and semi-arid regions are already rendering agricultural production, mainstay of subsistence livelihoods, uncertain. In order to mitigate the impact of drought, agricultural organizations must increase their capacity to adapt. Institutional adaptation refers to the creation of an effective, long-term government institution or set of institutions in charge of planning and policy, and its capacity to develop, revise, and execute drought policies. Using the Fars Agricultural Organization in Iran, as a case study, this paper explores the institutional capacities and capabilities, necessary to adapt to the drought conditions. The STAIR model was used as a conceptual tool, and the Bayesian network and Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling was applied to explain the mechanisms by which organizational capacities influence drought management. A survey of 309 randomly selected managers and specialists indicated serious weaknesses in the ability of the organization to apply adaptation strategies effectively. Analysis of the causal models illustrated that organizational culture and resources and infrastructure significantly influenced drought management performance. Moreover, managers and specialists perceived human resources and strategy, goals, and action plan, respectively, as the main drivers of institutional adaptation to drought conditions. Recommendations and implications for drought management policy are offered to increase organizational adaptation to drought and reduce the subsequent sufferings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

PubMed

Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

2015-08-25

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

Analysis of drought impacts on electricity production in the Western and Texas interconnections of the United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harto, C. B.; Yan, Y. E.; Demissie, Y. K.

2012-02-09

Electricity generation relies heavily on water resources and their availability. To examine the interdependence of energy and water in the electricity context, the impacts of a severe drought to assess the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the western and Texas interconnections has been examined. The historical drought patterns in the western United States were analyzed, and the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the region was evaluated. The results of this effort will be used to develop scenarios for medium- and long-term transmission modeling and planning efforts by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) andmore » the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The study was performed in response to a request developed by the Western Governors Association in conjunction with the transmission modeling teams at the participating interconnections. It is part of a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored, national laboratory-led research effort to develop tools related to the interdependency of energy and water as part of a larger interconnection-wide transmission planning project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. This study accomplished three main objectives. It provided a thorough literature review of recent studies of drought and the potential implications for electricity generation. It analyzed historical drought patterns in the western United States and used the results to develop three design drought scenarios. Finally, it quantified the risk to electricity generation for each of eight basins for each of the three drought scenarios and considered the implications for transmission planning. Literature on drought impacts on electricity generation describes a number of examples where hydroelectric generation capacity has been limited because of drought but only a few examples of impact on thermoelectric generation. In all documented cases, shortfalls of generation were met by purchasing

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.

PubMed

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T

2016-05-24

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

PubMed Central

Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter

2016-01-01

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE PAGES

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...

2016-04-25

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Potato Annexin STANN1 Promotes Drought Tolerance and Mitigates Light Stress in Transgenic Solanum tuberosum L. Plants.

PubMed

Szalonek, Michal; Sierpien, Barbara; Rymaszewski, Wojciech; Gieczewska, Katarzyna; Garstka, Maciej; Lichocka, Malgorzata; Sass, Laszlo; Paul, Kenny; Vass, Imre; Vankova, Radomira; Dobrev, Peter; Szczesny, Pawel; Marczewski, Waldemar; Krusiewicz, Dominika; Strzelczyk-Zyta, Danuta; Hennig, Jacek; Konopka-Postupolska, Dorota

2015-01-01

Annexins are a family of calcium- and membrane-binding proteins that are important for plant tolerance to adverse environmental conditions. Annexins function to counteract oxidative stress, maintain cell redox homeostasis, and enhance drought tolerance. In the present study, an endogenous annexin, STANN1, was overexpressed to determine whether crop yields could be improved in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) during drought. Nine potential potato annexins were identified and their expression characterized in response to drought treatment. STANN1 mRNA was constitutively expressed at a high level and drought treatment strongly increased transcription levels. Therefore, STANN1 was selected for overexpression analysis. Under drought conditions, transgenic potato plants ectopically expressing STANN1 were more tolerant to water deficit in the root zone, preserved more water in green tissues, maintained chloroplast functions, and had higher accumulation of chlorophyll b and xanthophylls (especially zeaxanthin) than wild type (WT). Drought-induced reductions in the maximum efficiency and the electron transport rate of photosystem II (PSII), as well as the quantum yield of photosynthesis, were less pronounced in transgenic plants overexpressing STANN1 than in the WT. This conferred more efficient non-photochemical energy dissipation in the outer antennae of PSII and probably more efficient protection of reaction centers against photooxidative damage in transgenic plants under drought conditions. Consequently, these plants were able to maintain effective photosynthesis during drought, which resulted in greater productivity than WT plants despite water scarcity. Although the mechanisms underlying this stress protection are not yet clear, annexin-mediated photoprotection is probably linked to protection against light-induced oxidative stress.

Potato Annexin STANN1 Promotes Drought Tolerance and Mitigates Light Stress in Transgenic Solanum tuberosum L. Plants

PubMed Central

Szalonek, Michal; Sierpien, Barbara; Rymaszewski, Wojciech; Gieczewska, Katarzyna; Garstka, Maciej; Lichocka, Malgorzata; Sass, Laszlo; Paul, Kenny; Vass, Imre; Vankova, Radomira; Dobrev, Peter; Szczesny, Pawel; Marczewski, Waldemar; Krusiewicz, Dominika; Strzelczyk-Zyta, Danuta; Hennig, Jacek; Konopka-Postupolska, Dorota

2015-01-01

Annexins are a family of calcium- and membrane-binding proteins that are important for plant tolerance to adverse environmental conditions. Annexins function to counteract oxidative stress, maintain cell redox homeostasis, and enhance drought tolerance. In the present study, an endogenous annexin, STANN1, was overexpressed to determine whether crop yields could be improved in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) during drought. Nine potential potato annexins were identified and their expression characterized in response to drought treatment. STANN1 mRNA was constitutively expressed at a high level and drought treatment strongly increased transcription levels. Therefore, STANN1 was selected for overexpression analysis. Under drought conditions, transgenic potato plants ectopically expressing STANN1 were more tolerant to water deficit in the root zone, preserved more water in green tissues, maintained chloroplast functions, and had higher accumulation of chlorophyll b and xanthophylls (especially zeaxanthin) than wild type (WT). Drought-induced reductions in the maximum efficiency and the electron transport rate of photosystem II (PSII), as well as the quantum yield of photosynthesis, were less pronounced in transgenic plants overexpressing STANN1 than in the WT. This conferred more efficient non-photochemical energy dissipation in the outer antennae of PSII and probably more efficient protection of reaction centers against photooxidative damage in transgenic plants under drought conditions. Consequently, these plants were able to maintain effective photosynthesis during drought, which resulted in greater productivity than WT plants despite water scarcity. Although the mechanisms underlying this stress protection are not yet clear, annexin-mediated photoprotection is probably linked to protection against light-induced oxidative stress. PMID:26172952

A water resources simulation gaming model for the Invitational Drought Tournament.

PubMed

Wang, K; Davies, E G R

2015-09-01

A system dynamics-based simulation gaming model, developed as a component of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT; Hill et al., 2014), is introduced in this paper as a decision support tool for drought management at the river-basin scale. This IDT Model provides a comprehensive and integrated overview of drought conditions, and illustrates the broad effects of socio-economic drought and mitigation strategies. It is intended to provide a safe, user-friendly experimental environment with fast run-times for testing management options, and to promote collaborative decision-making and consensus building. Examples of model results from several recent IDT events demonstrate potential effects of drought and the short-to longer-term effectiveness of policies selected by IDT teams; such results have also improved teams' understanding of the complexity of water resources systems and their management trade-offs. The IDT Model structure and framework can also be reconfigured quickly for application to different river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting drought propagation within peat layers using a three dimensionally explicit voxel based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condro, A. A.; Pawitan, H.; Risdiyanto, I.

2018-05-01

Peatlands are very vulnerable to widespread fires during dry seasons, due to availability of aboveground fuel biomass on the surface and belowground fuel biomass on the sub-surface. Hence, understanding drought propagation occurring within peat layers is crucial with regards to disaster mitigation activities on peatlands. Using a three dimensionally explicit voxel-based model of peatland hydrology, this study predicted drought propagation time lags into sub-surface peat layers after drought events occurrence on the surface of about 1 month during La-Nina and 2.5 months during El-Nino. The study was carried out on a high-conservation-value area of oil palm plantation in West Kalimantan. Validity of the model was evaluated and its applicability for disaster mitigation was discussed. The animations of simulated voxels are available at: goo.gl/HDRMYN (El-Nino 2015 episode) and goo.gl/g1sXPl (La-Nina 2016 episode). The model is available at: goo.gl/RiuMQz.

Meteorological contribution to the mitigation and adaptation of the 'extreme water events' of Hungarian Great Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, Z.; Vincze, E.; Moring, A.

2012-04-01

The lack of water is a traditional problem of Hungarian agriculture. Two big rivers cross the territory of Hungary and times to times they produce huge floods. In the Carpathian basin a flood and a drought can occur in the same year. The general problem of Hungarian agriculture is the 'water' in two contexts, in lack of water and in surplus. Not only of the next year but of the next decades the basic question of the Hungarian planning is how the national economy can handle the increasing numbers of unexpected negative events of climate change because the growing numbers of sometimes catastrophic floods and droughts seems to be connected with global warming. Beside the 'normal floods' in the last few years the numbers of so called flash floods show increasing tendency too. The presentation summarises the 'extreme water events' of Hungarian Great Plain, and the forecast problems of Hungarian meteorology together with the National strategy in mitigation and adaptation in connection with climate change. From meteorological point of view the handling of flood and drought problem is totally different. In case of flood the stress is on the forecast, in case of drought mainly of the evaluation of the historical data mainly the short and long term evaluation of drought indices. Drought indices seem to be the simplest tools in drought analysis. The more or less well known and popular indices have been collected and compared not only with the well known simple but more complicated water balance and so called 'recursive' indices beside few ones use remotely sensed data, mainly satellite born information. The indices are classified into five groups, namely 'precipitation', 'water balance', 'soil moisture', 'recursive' and 'remote sensing' indices. For every group typical expressions are given and the possible use in the decision making and hazard risk evaluation and compensation of the farmers after the events. The meteorological elements of new Hungarian agricultural risk

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought-induced tipping point.

PubMed

Sousa-Silva, Rita; Verheyen, Kris; Ponette, Quentin; Bay, Elodie; Sioen, Geert; Titeux, Hugues; Van de Peer, Thomas; Van Meerbeek, Koenraad; Muys, Bart

2018-05-26

Understanding the processes that underlie drought-related tree vitality loss is essential for anticipating future forest dynamics, and for developing management plans aiming at increasing the resilience of forests to climate change. Forest vitality has been continuously monitored in Europe since the acid rain alert in the 1980s, and the intensive monitoring plots of ICP Forests offer the opportunity to investigate the effects of air pollution and climate change on forest condition. By making use of over 100 long-term monitoring plots, where crown defoliation has been assessed extensively since 1990, we discovered a progressive shift from a negative to a positive effect of species richness on forest health. The observed tipping point in the balance of net interactions, from competition to facilitation, has never been reported from real ecosystems outside experimental conditions; and the strong temporal consistency of our observations with increasing drought stress emphasizes its climate change relevance. Furthermore, we show that higher species diversity has reduced the severity of defoliation in the long term. Our results confirm the greater resilience of diverse forests to future climate change-induced stress. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence on the large potential of tree species mixtures to face manifold disturbances in a changing world. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

InfoDROUGHT: Technical reliability assessment using crop yield data at the Spanish-national level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Sergio; Garcia-León, David; Hunink, Johannes E.

2017-04-01

Drought monitoring (DM) is a key component of risk-centered drought preparedness plans and drought policies. InfoDROUGHT (www.infosequia.es) is a a site- and user-tailored and fully-integrated DM system which combines functionalities for: a) the operational satellite-based weekly-1km tracking of severity and spatial extent of drought impacts, b) the interactive and faster query and delivery of drought information through a web-mapping service. InfoDROUGHT has a flexible and modular structure. The calibration (threshold definitions) and validation of the system is performed by combining expert knowledge and auxiliary impact assessments and datasets. Different technical solutions (basic or advanced versions) or deployment options (open-standard or restricted-authenticated) can be purchased by end-users and customers according to their needs. In this analysis, the technical reliability of InfoDROUGHT and its performance for detecting drought impacts on agriculture has been evaluated in the 2003-2014 period by exploring and quantifying the relationships among the drought severity indices reported by InfoDROUGHT and the annual yield anomalies observed for different rainfed crops (maize, wheat, barley) at Spain. We hypothesize a positive relationship between the crop anomalies and the drought severity level detected by InfoDROUGHT. Annual yield anomalies were computed at the province administrative level as the difference between the annual yield reported by the Spanish Annual Survey of Crop Acreages and Yields (ESYRCE database) and the mean annual yield estimated during the study period. Yield anomalies were finally compared against drought greenness-based and thermal-based drought indices (VCI and TCI, respectively) to check the coherence of the outputs and the hypothesis stated. InfoDROUGHT has been partly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competiveness through a Torres-Quevedo grant, and by the H2020-EU project "Bridging the Gap for Innovations in

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

Anatomy of Human Interventions on the Alteration of Drought Risk over the Conterminous US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, X.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

Drought attribution focusing on anthropogenic climate change has received wide attentions. However, human interventions (HIs), such as irrigation, reservoir operation, and water use, are less well known. In this study, using the large-scale water resources model PCR-GLOBWB, we perform a suite of high-resolution ( 10 km) simulations over the conterminous US (CONUS) in order to disentangle the fingerprints of individual HI elements on changes of hydrological drought. The results show significant trend differences between scenarios with and without HIs in certain regions of the CONUS. HIs cause increased trends in drought severity for the High Plains, California and Mid-Atlantic region, whereas decreased trend emerges in the California Central Valley, lower Mississippi basin and Pacific Northwest. The mechanism of altered drought severity can be broken down into three individual parts, with irrigation increasing the trend in the High Plains and Central Valley, reservoir operation decreasing the trend in Western US and water use amplifying the trend in the urban areas. Besides the trend analysis, we show the relative contribution of water abstraction and return flows to explain how each HI contributes to enhancing or mitigating drought. Results demonstrate that return flows from agricultural irrigation increase recharge and therefore can alleviate hydrological drought (e.g., by 60-80% in Mississippi embayment). Further examination of the water sources indicates that in these drought alleviation hotspots, non-fossil groundwater dominates the total water abstraction. However, for the hotspots of drought intensification (e.g., southern High Plains), extensive irrigational pumping causes severe depletion of fossil groundwater, which reduces the interaction between baseflow and channel flow, and therefore reduces the total streamflow. Return level analysis is further applied to quantify how different types of HIs could alter the probability of occurrence of recent major

Drought impacts on vegetation activity in the Mediterranean region: An assessment using remote sensing data and multi-scale drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, C. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Beguería, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

2017-04-01

that these results will provide a useful tool for drought management plans and play a relevant role in mitigating the impact of drought episodes.

Drought causes reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canada.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Alam, Syed Ashraful; Zhai, Lihong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G

2017-07-01

Adequate and advance knowledge of the response of forest ecosystems to temperature-induced drought is critical for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of global climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function. Recent massive decline in aspen-dominated forests and an increased aspen mortality in boreal forests have been associated with global warming, but it is still uncertain whether the decline and mortality are driven by drought. We used a series of ring-width chronologies from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada, in an attempt to clarify the impacts of drought on aspen growth by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results indicated that prolonged and large-scale droughts had a strong negative impact on trembling aspen growth. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variability of drought indices is useful for explaining the spatial heterogeneity in the radial growth of trembling aspen. Due to ongoing global warming and rising temperatures, it is likely that severer droughts with a higher frequency will occur in western Canada. As trembling aspen is sensitive to drought, we suggest that drought indices could be applied to monitor the potential effects of increased drought stress on aspen trees growth, achieve classification of eco-regions and develop effective mitigation strategies to maintain western Canadian boreal forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.

2011-12-01

Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences

Coping With Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaporozec, Alexander

This book is a collection of selected papers from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Droughts entitled “Drought Impact Control Technology,” held at the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering in Lisbon, Portugal, in June 1980. The editors of the book have chosen a nontraditional but successful approach to presenting the papers. Instead of including a verbatim proceedings of the institute, they assembled 21 papers presented by 14 of the institute's lecturers, reshaped and synthesized them, and supplemented them by five new papers that cover obvious gaps in topics. The result is enlightening reading and a more or less complete presentation of the subject. The edited material in the book was arranged around three central themes related to efforts needed to cope with or manage the droughts. In the process, the identity of individual contributors has been preserved.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Meteorological Drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, M.; Tamilmani, D.

2015-09-01

The present study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar basin, Tamil Nadu using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity. The basin was divided into 97 grid-cells of 5 × 5 km with each grid correspondence to approximately 1.03 % of total area. Monthly rainfall data for the period of 40 years (1972-2011) from 28 rain gauge stations in the basin was spatially interpolated and gridded monthly rainfall was created. Regional representative of SPI values calculated from mean areal rainfall were used to analyse the temporal variation of drought at multiple time scales. Spatial variation of drought was analysed based on highest drought severity derived from the monthly gridded SPI values. Frequency analyse was applied to assess the recurrence pattern of drought severity. The temporal analysis of SPI indicated that moderate, severe and extreme droughts are common in the basin and spatial analysis of drought severity identified the areas most frequently affected by drought. The results of this study can be used for developing drought preparedness plan and formulating mitigation strategies for sustainable water resource management within the basin.

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, A. M.

2017-12-01

After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: a comprehensive science synthesis

Treesearch

James Vose; J.S. Clark; Charlie Luce; Toral Patel-Weynand

2016-01-01

This assessment provides input to the reauthorized National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and it establishes the scientific foundation needed to manage for drought resilience and adaptation. Focal areas include drought characterization; drought impacts on forest processes and disturbances such as insect...

Intricacies in Drought Management Policy, Crisis Response and Preparedness: Linking the Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, P.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

Drought per se is often misrepresented as mere water scarcity issue overlooking the complexities associated with it. In many parts of the world, the drought management policy prescriptions are often driven by crisis management rather than preventive approach. As a result, the economic, social and environmental impact of droughts continues to increase even to this day. To overcome this calamity, nations should encourage coordinated effort at both national and regional scale. An integrated approach on open data sharing, technical advancement in monitoring and robust early warning system to deliver timely information to decision makers, drought projection through high performance mathematical model and effective impact assessment procedure, implementing proactive risk management measures and preparedness with effective emergency response programs plans, will certainly increase the likelihood of drought coping capabilities. The present study focuses on knowledge augmentation for better policy framework and action for all countries that suffer from droughts. A comprehensive database at the global scale has been compiled giving information on existing drought management policies/practices and the major challenges faced by major drought distressed countries. Plausible solution is suggested towards integrating the water management policy, response and preparedness, that has been garnered through the lessons from success/failure stories of nations with effective drought management policies

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States

PubMed Central

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-01-01

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data. PMID:26324927

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States.

PubMed

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-09-15

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data.

Mitigation of laser damage on National Ignition Facility optics in volume production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folta, James; Nostrand, Mike; Honig, John; Wong, Nan; Ravizza, Frank; Geraghty, Paul; Taranowski, Mike; Johnson, Gary; Larkin, Glenn; Ravizza, Doug; Peterson, John; Welday, Brian; Wegner, Paul

2013-12-01

The National Ignition Facility has recently achieved the milestone of delivering over 1.8 MJ and 500 TW of 351 nm laser energy and power on target, which required average fluences up to 9 J/cm2 (3 ns equivalent) in the final optics system. Commercial fused silica laser-grade UV optics typically have a maximum operating threshold of 5 J/cm2. We have developed an optics recycling process which enables NIF to operate above the laser damage initiation and growth thresholds. We previously reported a method to mitigate laser damage with laser ablation of the damage site to leave benign cone shaped pits. We have since developed a production facility with four mitigation systems capable of performing the mitigation protocols on full-sized (430 mm) optics in volume production. We have successfully repaired over 700 NIF optics (unique serial numbers), some of which have been recycled as many as 11 times. We describe the mitigation systems, the optics recycle loop process, and optics recycle production data.

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin

Here, drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome andmore » causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin

Drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through16S amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome and causes increased abundancemore » and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ABC (ATP-binding cassette)-transporter genes may mediate these shifts in community composition. Finally, experiments with fluorescently tagged monoderms indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria

DOE PAGES

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin; ...

2018-04-16

Here, drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome andmore » causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes.« less

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, Jose A.; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Alves, Lincoln Muniz

2017-08-01

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

Tradeoffs in Risk and Return of Financial Hedging Solutions to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Risks for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Financial hedging solutions have been examined as tools for effectively mitigating water scarcity related financial risks for water utilities, and have become more prevalent as conservation (resulting in reduced revenues) and water transfers (resulting in increased costs) play larger roles in drought management. Individualized financial contracts (i.e. designed for a single utility) provide evidence of the potential benefits of financial hedging. However, individualized contracts require substantial time and information to develop, limiting their widespread implementation. More generalized contracts have also shown promise, and would allow the benefits of risk pooling to be more effectively realized, resulting in less expensive contracts. Risk pooling reduces the probability of an insurer making payouts that deviate significantly from the mean, but given that the financial risks of drought are spatially correlated amongst utilities, these more extreme "fat tail" risks remain. Any group offering these hedging contracts, whether a third-party insurer or a "mutual" comprised of many utilities, will need to balance the costs (i.e. additional risk) and benefits (i.e. returns) of alternative approaches to managing the extreme risks (e.g. through insurance layers). The balance of these different approaches will vary depending on the risk pool being considered, including the number, size and exposure of the participating utilities. This work first establishes a baseline of the tradeoffs between risk and expected return in insuring against the financial risks of water scarcity without alternative hedging approaches for water utilities across all climate divisions of the United States. Then various scenarios are analyzed to provide insight into how to maximize returns for risk pooling portfolios at various risk levels through balancing different insurance layers and hedging approaches. This analysis will provide valuable information for designing optimal financial risk

Drought impacts on ecosystem functions of the U.S. National Forests and Grasslands: Part II assessment results and management implications

Treesearch

Shanlei Sun; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steve McNulty; Erika Cohen; Jingfeng Xiao; Yang Zhang

2015-01-01

The 781,000 km2 (193 million acre) United States National Forests and Grasslands system (NF) provides important ecosystem services such as clean water supply, timber production, wildlife habitat, and recreation opportunities to the American public. Quantifying the historical impacts of climate change and drought on ecosystem functions at the national scale is essential...

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Patric; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.

2018-03-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%-31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%-41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed

Climate Projections and Drought: Verification for the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Piechota, T. C.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River Basin has experienced the driest 17 year period (2000-2016) in over 100 years of historical record keeping. While the Colorado River reservoir system began the current drought at near 100% capacity, reservoir storage has fallen to just above 50% during the drought. Even though federal and state water agencies have worked together to mitigate the impact of the drought and have collaboratively sponsored conservation programs and drought contingency plans, the 17-years of observed data beg the question as to whether the most recent climate projections would have been able to project the current drought's severity. The objective of this study is to analyze observations and ensemble projections (e.g. temperature, precipitation, streamflow) from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archive in the Colorado River Basin and compare metrics related to skill scores, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and water supply sustainability index. Furthermore, a sub-ensemble of CMIP3/CMIP5 projections, developed using a teleconnection replication verification technique developed by the author, will also be compared to the observed record to assist in further validating the technique as a usable process to increase skill in climatological projections. In the end, this study will assist to better inform water resource managers about the ability of climate ensembles to project hydroclimatic variability and the appearance of decadal drought periods.

Building the vegetation drought response index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) to monitor agricultural drought: first results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.

2017-01-01

Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg

A Catalyst for Change: Drought and Food Security in the Near East Region (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutson, C. L.

2010-12-01

In the Near East, drought at the turn of the 21st century was reported to be the worst in 50 years, affecting millions of people across the region. The drought caused a wide range of effects, including widespread crop failures and livestock losses, increased drinking water shortages and disease stress, additional debt, and forced mass migrations to urban areas and other countries, all of which affected food security. As devastating as the drought was for people and the environment, the event created a “policy window” - a time during which the public’s and policy makers’ attention was directed toward a particular issue, creating an advantageous political environment for addressing the problem. In this case, the drought revealed the need for enhanced mitigation and drought relief coordination. It has served as the impetus for several countries and international organizations to work together to foster new policies and training activities to reduce drought risk and enhance food security in the region.

Drought characteristics and prediction during pasture growing season in Xilingol grassland, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Qiyun; Zhang, Jiquan; Sun, Caiyun; Zhang, Feng; Wu, Rina; Wu, Lan

2017-06-01

In this paper, spatiotemporal variability of drought in Xilingol grassland during pasture growing season (from April to September) was investigated, using 52 years (1961-2012) of precipitation data recorded at 14 rain gauge stations in the study area. The Standardized Precipitation Index was used to compute the severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall test, the linear trend, and the sequential Mann-Kendall test were applied to standardized precipitation index (SPI) time series. The results indicate that drought has become increasingly serious on the region scale during pasture growing season, and the rate of SPI decreases ranged from -0.112 to -0.013 per decade. As for the MK test, most of the stations, the Z value range is from -1.081 to -0.005 and Kendall's τ varies from -0.104 to -0.024. Meanwhile, drought is increased obviously from the northwest to the southeast region. Meanwhile, the occurrence probability of each severity class, times for reaching different drought class from any drought severity state, and residence times in each drought class have been obtained with Markov chain. Furthermore, the drought severities during pasture growing season in 2013-2016 are predicted depending on the weighted Markov chain. The results may provide a scientific basis for preventing and mitigating drought disaster.

The socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin (Spain): A comprehensive and critical assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Mora, N.; Garrido, A.; Gil, M.

2012-04-01

Water scarcity and drought are particularly relevant phenomena in Spain, a country with a Mediterranean climate and intense pressure on existing water resources. Spain's drought management policies have evolved significantly over time, and today Spain is at the forefront of drought management and mitigation planning in Europe. However, drought management policies are not informed by comprehensive or accurate estimations of the socioeconomic impacts of drought, nor by the efficiency or efficacy of drought management and mitigation measures. Previous studies attempting to estimate on the impacts of drought are based on direct economic users of water, primarily irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Existing analyses do not take into consideration the impacts on other economic sectors, such as recreational uses, which have a growing importance from a socioeconomic perspective. Additionally, the intangible or non-market impacts (on social welfare and wellbeing and on the environment) are not considered or measured, although they can be significant. This paper presents the mid-point results of the PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin. The study gathers existing information on direct and indirect economic impacts of drought on different sectors, completing existing gaps and comparing the results of studies that use different methodologies. It also estimates the welfare losses resulting from domestic water use restrictions and environmental degradation as a result of the drought using a value transfer approach from results derived from value choice experiments developed for other Spanish and international river basins. Results indicate that there is a clear need to improve our knowledge of the direct and indirect impacts of drought and to

Phosphorous Application Improves Drought Tolerance of Phoebe zhennan.

PubMed

Tariq, Akash; Pan, Kaiwen; Olatunji, Olusanya A; Graciano, Corina; Li, Zilong; Sun, Feng; Sun, Xiaoming; Song, Dagang; Chen, Wenkai; Zhang, Aiping; Wu, Xiaogang; Zhang, Lin; Mingrui, Deng; Xiong, Qinli; Liu, Chenggang

2017-01-01

Phoebe zhennan (Gold Phoebe) is a threatened tree species in China and a valuable and important source of wood and bioactive compounds used in medicine. Apart from anthropogenic disturbances, several biotic constraints currently restrict its growth and development. However, little attention has been given to building adaptive strategies for its conservation by examining its morphological and physio-biochemical responses to drought stress, and the role of fertilizers on these responses. A randomized experimental design was used to investigate the effects of two levels of irrigation (well-watered and drought-stressed) and phosphorous (P) fertilization treatment (with and without P) to assess the morphological and physio-biochemical responses of P. zhennan seedlings to drought stress. In addition, we evaluated whether P application could mitigate the negative impacts of drought on plant growth and metabolism. Drought stress had a significant negative effect on the growth and metabolic processes of P. zhennan . Despite this, reduced leaf area, limited stomatal conductance, reduced transpiration rate, increased water use efficiency, enhanced antioxidant enzymes activities, and osmolytes accumulation suggested that the species has good adaptive strategies for tolerating drought stress. Application of P had a significant positive effect on root biomass, signifying its improved water extracting capacity from the soil. Moreover, P fertilization significantly increased leaf relative water content, net photosynthetic rate, and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII under drought stress conditions. This may be attributable to several factors, such as enhanced root biomass, decreased malondialdehyde content, and the up-regulation of chloroplast pigments, osmolytes, and nitrogenous compounds. However, P application had only a slight or negligible effect on the growth and metabolism of well-watered plants. In conclusion, P. zhennan has a strong capability for drought resistance

Bill Would Expand U.S. Drought Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, Sarah

2006-05-01

The collection and dissemination of drought information would be centralized within the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under a newly proposed bill, which received support at a 4 May hearing before the U.S. House of Representatives Science Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards. The economic costs of drought average $6 to $8 billion each year in the United States, according to NOAA. The effects of prolonged drought include extreme wildfire conditions, water restrictions, and reduced crop yields.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and

Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Jianxia; Li, Yunyun; Wang, Yimin; Yuan, Meng

2016-09-01

It is critical to assess drought risk based on a reliably integrated drought index incorporating comprehensive information of meteorology, hydrology and agriculture drought indices, which is of great value for further understanding the future drought tendency, prevention and mitigation. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to focus on constructing a multivariate integrated drought index (MIDI) by coupling four drought indices (i.e., Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP), Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP), Standardized Precipitation Index with 6-month aggregation time step (SPI6) and Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI)) to objectively and comprehensively investigate drought risk. The variable fuzzy set theory and entropy weight method are used during the MIDI construction process. Based on the MIDI, a drought event including drought duration and severity is redefined using run theory. Then copula-based drought risk is fully assessed through the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. Results indicate the following: (1) the constructed MIDI is consistent with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP) series, and it is more sensitive and effective to capture historical drought events; (2) the drought characteristics present noticeable spatial variability among five subzones, and the entire basin has 49 droughts with the longest drought duration spanning 8.55 months; and (3) the mainstream, especially the middle and lower reaches, has higher occurrences of severe droughts for approximately every 10 years.

Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany.

PubMed

Uehleke, Reinhard

2016-06-01

The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats.

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 989.22 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation. 989.22 Section 989.22 National... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.22 Mitigation. (a) When preparing EIAP documents, indicate clearly whether mitigation measures (40 CFR 1508.20) must be implemented for the alternative selected. If...

32 CFR 989.22 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation. 989.22 Section 989.22 National... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.22 Mitigation. (a) When preparing EIAP documents, indicate clearly whether mitigation measures (40 CFR 1508.20) must be implemented for the alternative selected. If...

32 CFR 989.22 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation. 989.22 Section 989.22 National... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.22 Mitigation. (a) When preparing EIAP documents, indicate clearly whether mitigation measures (40 CFR 1508.20) must be implemented for the alternative selected. If...

32 CFR 989.22 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mitigation. 989.22 Section 989.22 National... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.22 Mitigation. (a) When preparing EIAP documents, indicate clearly whether mitigation measures (40 CFR 1508.20) must be implemented for the alternative selected. If...

Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2015-04-01

the intra-annual variability of precipitation in estimating the severity of events that can impact on seasonal activities. The MDSI is standardized in space and time, and considers the relative monthly precipitation deficits and the seasonal influence of precipitation regimes in the meteorological drought severity computation. In this study, the calculation of the MDSI is performed with monthly precipitation totals from the Full Data Reanalysis Monthly Product Version 6.0 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). This dataset provides a global analysis at 0.5 dd latitude/longitude grid spacing of monthly precipitation over land from operational in situ rain gauges collected between January 1901 and December 2010. Using the MDSI, we estimated the severity of drought events that occurred in the past 100 years in Africa and South-Central America, and produced drought hazard maps based on the probability of exceedance the median historical severity. Overall, results indicate that drought hazard is high for semiarid areas, such as Northeastern and Southern South America, as well as Eastern and Southwestern Africa. Since available water resources in semiarid areas are already insufficient to permanently meet the demands of human activities, the outcomes highlight the aggravated risk for food security and confirm the need for the implementation of disaster mitigation measures in those regions.

Enhancement of oxidative and drought tolerance in Arabidopsis by overaccumulation of antioxidant flavonoids

PubMed Central

Nakabayashi, Ryo; Yonekura-Sakakibara, Keiko; Urano, Kaoru; Suzuki, Makoto; Yamada, Yutaka; Nishizawa, Tomoko; Matsuda, Fumio; Kojima, Mikiko; Sakakibara, Hitoshi; Shinozaki, Kazuo; Michael, Anthony J; Tohge, Takayuki; Yamazaki, Mami; Saito, Kazuki

2014-01-01

The notion that plants use specialized metabolism to protect against environmental stresses needs to be experimentally proven by addressing the question of whether stress tolerance by specialized metabolism is directly due to metabolites such as flavonoids. We report that flavonoids with radical scavenging activity mitigate against oxidative and drought stress in Arabidopsis thaliana. Metabolome and transcriptome profiling and experiments with oxidative and drought stress in wild-type, single overexpressors of MYB12/PFG1 (PRODUCTION OF FLAVONOL GLYCOSIDES1) or MYB75/PAP1 (PRODUCTION OF ANTHOCYANIN PIGMENT1), double overexpressors of MYB12 and PAP1, transparent testa4 (tt4) as a flavonoid-deficient mutant, and flavonoid-deficient MYB12 or PAP1 overexpressing lines (obtained by crossing tt4 and the individual MYB overexpressor) demonstrated that flavonoid overaccumulation was key to enhanced tolerance to such stresses. Antioxidative activity assays using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl, methyl viologen, and 3,3′-diaminobenzidine clearly showed that anthocyanin overaccumulation with strong in vitro antioxidative activity mitigated the accumulation of reactive oxygen species in vivo under oxidative and drought stress. These data confirm the usefulness of flavonoids for enhancing both biotic and abiotic stress tolerance in crops. PMID:24274116

Drought

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2009-01-01

Drought occurrence is a function of temperature, moisture, and soil characteristics. In some regions, such as much of the Western United States, drought is a regular occurrence, while in others, such as the Northeastern United States, drought occurs on an irregular basis. Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severe drought stress also reduces...

Drought characterisation based on an agriculture-oriented standardised precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tigkas, Dimitris; Vangelis, Harris; Tsakiris, George

2018-03-01

Drought is a major natural hazard with significant effects in the agricultural sector, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. The accurate and timely characterisation of agricultural drought is crucial for devising contingency plans, including the necessary mitigation measures. Many drought indices have been developed during the last decades for drought characterisation and analysis. One of the most widely used indices worldwide is the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). Although other comprehensive indices have been introduced over the years, SPI remains the most broadly accepted index due to a number of reasons, the most important of which are its simple structure and the fact that it uses only precipitation data. In this paper, a modified version of SPI is proposed, namely the Agricultural Standardised Precipitation Index (aSPI), based on the substitution of the total precipitation by the effective precipitation, which describes more accurately the amount of water that can be used productively by the plants. Further, the selection of the most suitable reference periods and time steps for agricultural drought identification using aSPI is discussed. This conceptual enhancement of SPI aims at improving the suitability of the index for agricultural drought characterisation, while retaining the advantages of the original index, including its dependence only on precipitation data. The evaluation of the performance of both SPI and aSPI in terms of correlating drought magnitude with crop yield response in four regions of Greece under Mediterranean conditions indicated that aSPI is more robust than the original index in identifying agricultural drought.

Drought delays development of the sorghum root microbiome and enriches for monoderm bacteria.

PubMed

Xu, Ling; Naylor, Dan; Dong, Zhaobin; Simmons, Tuesday; Pierroz, Grady; Hixson, Kim K; Kim, Young-Mo; Zink, Erika M; Engbrecht, Kristin M; Wang, Yi; Gao, Cheng; DeGraaf, Stephanie; Madera, Mary A; Sievert, Julie A; Hollingsworth, Joy; Birdseye, Devon; Scheller, Henrik V; Hutmacher, Robert; Dahlberg, Jeffery; Jansson, Christer; Taylor, John W; Lemaux, Peggy G; Coleman-Derr, Devin

2018-05-01

Drought stress is a major obstacle to crop productivity, and the severity and frequency of drought are expected to increase in the coming century. Certain root-associated bacteria have been shown to mitigate the negative effects of drought stress on plant growth, and manipulation of the crop microbiome is an emerging strategy for overcoming drought stress in agricultural systems, yet the effect of drought on the development of the root microbiome is poorly understood. Through 16S rRNA amplicon and metatranscriptome sequencing, as well as root metabolomics, we demonstrate that drought delays the development of the early sorghum root microbiome and causes increased abundance and activity of monoderm bacteria, which lack an outer cell membrane and contain thick cell walls. Our data suggest that altered plant metabolism and increased activity of bacterial ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter genes are correlated with these shifts in community composition. Finally, inoculation experiments with monoderm isolates indicate that increased colonization of the root during drought can positively impact plant growth. Collectively, these results demonstrate the role that drought plays in restructuring the root microbiome and highlight the importance of temporal sampling when studying plant-associated microbiomes. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

[Effects of exogenous salicylic acid on seed germination and physiological characteristics of Coronilla varia under drought stress.

PubMed

Ma, Le Yuan; Chen, Nian Lai; Han, Guo Jun; Li, Liang

2017-10-01

This research investigated the effects of different concentrations (0, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 mmol·L -1 ) of salicylic acid on the seed germination and physiological characteristics of legume forage Coronilla varia (cultivar 'Lvbaoshi') under PEG-6000 (concentration 8% and 12%) simulated drought stress. The results showed that under drought stress, 0.5-1.0 mmol·L -1 salicylic acid significantly increased germination percentage, germination vigour, germination index, vitality index and bud length of C. varia. Under the stress of 12% PEG, the dry mass of C. varia seedlings processed by 1.0 mmol·L -1 salicylic acid was significantly higher than that under drought stress. 0.5-1.0 mmol·L -1 salicylic acid processing significantly increased proline, soluble protein content, the activities of catalase, peroxidase and superoxide dismutase of C. varia seedlings under drought stress, but cell electrolyte permeability, H2O2 content and O2 - · production rate of seedlings were significantly decreased. 1.0 mmol·L -1 salicylic acid produced the best results. When the concentration of salicylic acid was beyond 2.0 mmol·L -1 , no mitigation effect was observed on the seed germination and growth of seedlings under drought stress. It was concluded that salicylic acid at appropriate concentrations could effectively improve osmotic regulation, antioxidation and mitigate the damage of drought stress so as to promote the growth of C. varia seedlings.

How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

PubMed

Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

2016-04-15

Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A methodology to link national and local information for spatial targeting of ammonia mitigation efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Dore, A. J.; Sutton, M. A.; Dragosits, U.

2017-09-01

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are evident in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, with eutrophication and acidification leading to significant changes in species composition. Substantial reductions in N deposition from nitrogen oxides emissions have been achieved in recent decades. By contrast, ammonia (NH3) emissions from agriculture have not decreased substantially and are typically highly spatially variable, making efficient mitigation challenging. One solution is to target NH3 mitigation measures spatially in source landscapes to maximize the benefits for nature conservation. The paper develops an approach to link national scale data and detailed local data to help identify suitable measures for spatial targeting of local sources near designated Special Areas of Conservation (SACs). The methodology combines high-resolution national data on emissions, deposition and source attribution with local data on agricultural management and site conditions. Application of the methodology for the full set of 240 SACs in England found that agriculture contributes ∼45 % of total N deposition. Activities associated with cattle farming represented 54 % of agricultural NH3 emissions within 2 km of the SACs, making them a major contributor to local N deposition, followed by mineral fertiliser application (21 %). Incorporation of local information on agricultural management practices at seven example SACs provided the means to correct outcomes compared with national-scale emission factors. The outcomes show how national scale datasets can provide information on N deposition threats at landscape to national scales, while local-scale information helps to understand the feasibility of mitigation measures, including the impact of detailed spatial targeting on N deposition rates to designated sites.

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad

2010-01-01

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

A hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model for operational use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, L.; Loukas, A.

2010-09-01

Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. This study develops a hybrid spatiotemporal scheme for integrated spatial and temporal forecasting. Temporal forecasting is achieved using feed-forward neural networks and the temporal forecasts are extended to the spatial dimension using a spatial recurrent neural network model. The methodology is demonstrated for an operational meteorological drought index the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated at multiple timescales. 48 precipitation stations and 18 independent precipitation stations, located at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece, were used for the development and spatiotemporal validation of the hybrid spatiotemporal scheme. Several quantitative temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. Furthermore, qualitative statistical criteria based on contingency tables between observed and forecasted drought episodes were calculated. The results show that the lead time of forecasting for operational use depends on the SPI timescale. The hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model could be operationally used for forecasting up to three months ahead for SPI short timescales (e.g. 3-6 months) up to six months ahead for large SPI timescales (e.g. 24 months). The above findings could be useful in developing a drought preparedness plan in the region.

Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production and Land Fallowing in California's Central Valley in 2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosevelt, Carolyn; Melton, Forrest S.; Johnson, Lee; Guzman, Alberto; Verdin, James P.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Mueller, Rick; Jones, Jeanine; Willis, Patrick

2016-01-01

The ongoing drought in California substantially reduced surface water supplies for millions of acres of irrigated farmland in California's Central Valley. Rapid assessment of drought impacts on agricultural production can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to mitigation of drought impacts. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and increases in fallow acreage associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. We describe an approach for monthly and seasonal mapping of uncultivated agricultural acreage developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, NASA, and the California Department of Water Resources to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of uncultivated agricultural acreage from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to time-series data from Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper), ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus), OLI (Operational Land Imager), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Our effort has been focused on development of indicators of drought impacts in the March-August timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted across 650 fields from March-September in 2014 and 2015. We present the algorithm along with updated results from the accuracy assessment, and data and maps of land fallowing in the Central Valley in 2015.

Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production and Land Fallowing in California's Central Valley in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosevelt, C.; Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Guzman, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Mueller, R.; Jones, J.; Willis, P.

2015-12-01

The ongoing drought in California substantially reduced surface water supplies for millions of acres of irrigated farmland in California's Central Valley. Rapid assessment of drought impacts on agricultural production can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to mitigation of drought impacts. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and increases in fallow acreage associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. We describe an approach for monthly and seasonal mapping of uncultivated agricultural acreage developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, NASA, and the California Department of Water Resources to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of uncultivated agricultural acreage from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to timeseries of data from Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI, and MODIS. Our effort has been focused on development of indicators of drought impacts in the March - August timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted across 650 fields from March - September in 2014 and 2015. We present the algorithm along with updated results from the accuracy assessment, and data and maps of land fallowing in the Central Valley in 2015.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

Drought monitoring in the Brazilian Semiarid region.

PubMed

Alvalá, Regina C S; Cunha, Ana Paula M A; Brito, Sheila S B; Seluchi, Marcelo E; Marengo, José A; Moraes, Osvaldo L L; Carvalho, Magog A

2017-10-16

Drought is a natural and recurrent phenomenon. It is considered 'a natural disaster' whenever it occurs in an intensive manner in highly populated regions, resulting in significant damage (material and human) and loss (socioeconomic). This paper presents the efforts developed to monitor the impact of drought in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil. In this scope, information from different sources is compiled to support the evaluation and identification of impacted municipalities, with the main objective of supporting emergency actions to mitigate their impact. In the semiarid region of Brazil there are frequent occurrences of dry periods during the rainy season, which, depending on the intensity and duration, can cause significant damage to family-farmed crops, with a farming system characterized by low productivity indices. However, rain-fed agriculture has great economic expression and high social importance due to the region is densely occupied, and contributes to the establishment of communities in the countryside. Specifically, in the present study, the methodology adopted to monitor the impact of agricultural droughts, including an analysis of the hydrological year 2015-2016, is presented, considering different water stress indicators for the identification of the affected municipalities and assessment of the methods and tools developed.

Spatial Variations in Drought Persistence in the South-Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most prominent climatic hazards in the south-central United States. This study examines spatial variations in meteorological drought persistence using high-resolution PRISM gridded precipitation data from 1900-2015. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to represent meteorological drought conditions. The study region covers Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Droughts are first divided into different severity categories using the classification employed by the U.S. National Drought Monitor. The frequency and duration of each drought event is determined and this is used to calculate drought persistence. Our results indicate that drought persistence in the south-central U.S. varies as a function of drought severity. In addition, drought persistence also varies substantially over space and time. The probability of drought termination is a function of drought severity, geographic location and time of the year. In addition, there is evidence that drought persistence is influenced by global teleconnections and land-atmosphere interactions. The results of this drought persistence climatology can benefit seasonal forecasting and the current understanding of drought recovery.

Drought and coastal ecosystems: an assessment of decision maker needs for information

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Kirstin Dow

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developing drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the development and coordination of drought information is needed. In summer 2012, NIDIS launched a pilot program in North and South Carolina, addressing the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

2010-05-01

Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

Drought Occurrence and Management in Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskakov, Y.; Mendigarin, A.; Sazanova, B.; Zhumabayev, Y.

2014-12-01

A direct and reliable indicator of drought can be measured by the productive moisture content (PMC) in soil, which uses the weight of the moisture in a soil profile. However the limited network of PMC measurement sites in Kazakhstan (123 for the total area of 2. 7 million km2) does not allow a spatial assessment of drought conditions across the vast majority of the country. To assess the availability of soil moisture and the likelihood of drought, we calculated spatial structure of soil moisture deficit, using the Selyaninov Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTCs). It was derived for the vegetatively active period from May to August. Figure 1 shows the average structure of soil moisture availability across Kazakhstan, and indicates that most of the country is vulnerable to drought. In response to this vulnerability the Kazakhstan also established the following policies and technologies to mitigate the impact of drought. Those measures include: 1. Introduction of resource-saving (soil-protective and moisture preserving) No-Till technologies. 2. Structural and technological diversification of plant growing. 3. Introduction of efficient irrigation systems for southern Kazakhstan. 4. Adaptation of weather and field reports to optimize the benefits of agrotechnical activities. 5. Re-equipment of agricultural vehicles and machinery. 6. Training and professional development of specialists in agriculture. 7. Improvement of insurance system for plant growing. 8. Improvement of systems and mechanisms of state support for small and medium agricultural producers. 9. Improvement of the system of scientific and technological and innovative support for grain production. These strategies, how they are being implemented, and the targeted goals will be presented. We will provide findings from experimental field stations, and model farms. The goals is to improve efficiency in water resources, effectively communication relevant information to farmers, policy makers and the insurance industry

Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.

2012-12-01

As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-10-07

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-01-01

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

Towards Developing a Regional Drought Information System for Lower Mekong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, R.; Jayasinghe, S.; Basnayake, S. B.; Apirumanekul, C.; Pudashine, J.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K.; Das, N. N.

2016-12-01

lower Mekong countries to prepare for and respond towards drought situations and providing policy makers with current and forecast drought indices for decision making on adjusting cropping calendars as well as planning short and long term mitigation measures.

Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

2017-12-01

duration of drought events. Findings of this work are an important support for timely preparation of drought adaptation and mitigation plans to improve water management strategies and resilience during the XXI century.

A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-07-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Yao, Ning

2017-07-01

China have therefore been undertaken for drought mitigation and effective utilization of water resources.

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

Effects of severe drought on freshwater mussel assemblages

Treesearch

Wendell Hagg; Jr. Warren Melvin L.

2008-01-01

We examined changes in freshwater mussel abundance and species composition at eight sites in Alabama and Mississippi in response to a severe drought in 2000. Five small-stream sites in Bankhead National Forest were heavily impacted by drought; one site dried almost completely, and four sites experienced total or near cessation of flow but retained water in their...

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh; Lee, Bo-Ra

2015-07-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought Prediction till 2100 Under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, H. R.; Park, C. K.; Deo, R. C.

2014-12-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilizes the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

2015-04-01

Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Physiological and molecular characterization of drought responses and identification of candidate tolerance genes in cassava

PubMed Central

Turyagyenda, Laban F.; Kizito, Elizabeth B.; Ferguson, Morag; Baguma, Yona; Agaba, Morris; Harvey, Jagger J. W.; Osiru, David S. O.

2013-01-01

Cassava is an important root crop to resource-poor farmers in marginal areas, where its production faces drought stress constraints. Given the difficulties associated with cassava breeding, a molecular understanding of drought tolerance in cassava will help in the identification of markers for use in marker-assisted selection and genes for transgenic improvement of drought tolerance. This study was carried out to identify candidate drought-tolerance genes and expression-based markers of drought stress in cassava. One drought-tolerant (improved variety) and one drought-susceptible (farmer-preferred) cassava landrace were grown in the glasshouse under well-watered and water-stressed conditions. Their morphological, physiological and molecular responses to drought were characterized. Morphological and physiological measurements indicate that the tolerance of the improved variety is based on drought avoidance, through reduction of water loss via partial stomatal closure. Ten genes that have previously been biologically validated as conferring or being associated with drought tolerance in other plant species were confirmed as being drought responsive in cassava. Four genes (MeALDH, MeZFP, MeMSD and MeRD28) were identified as candidate cassava drought-tolerance genes, as they were exclusively up-regulated in the drought-tolerant genotype to comparable levels known to confer drought tolerance in other species. Based on these genes, we hypothesize that the basis of the tolerance at the cellular level is probably through mitigation of the oxidative burst and osmotic adjustment. This study provides an initial characterization of the molecular response of cassava to drought stress resembling field conditions. The drought-responsive genes can now be used as expression-based markers of drought stress tolerance in cassava, and the candidate tolerance genes tested in the context of breeding (as possible quantitative trait loci) and engineering drought tolerance in transgenics

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting: Experiences from the US and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; Chaney, Nate; Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric

2013-04-01

Drought has important but very different consequences regionally due to differences in vulnerability. These differences derive from variations in exposure related to climate variability and change, sensitivity of local populations, and coping capacity at all levels. Managing the risk of drought impacts relies on a variety of measures to reduce vulnerability that includes forewarning of drought development through early-warning systems. Existing systems rely on a variety of observing systems from satellites to local observers, modeling tools, and data dissemination methods. They range from sophisticated state-of-the-art systems to simple ground reports. In some regions, systems are virtually non-existent due to limited national capacity. This talk describes our experiences in developing and implementing drought monitoring and seasonal forecast systems in the US and sub-Saharan Africa as contrasting examples of the scientific challenges and user needs in developing early warning systems. In particular, early warning can help improve livelihoods based on subsistence farming in sub-Saharan Africa; whist reduction of economic impacts is generally foremost in the US. For the US, our national drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system has been operational for over 8 years and provides near real-time updates on hydrological states at ~12km resolution and hydrological forecasts out to 9 months. Output from the system contributes to national assessments such as from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the US National Drought Monitor (USDM). For sub-Saharan Africa, our experimental drought monitoring system was developed as a translation of the US system but presents generally greater challenges due to, for example, lack of ground data and unique user needs. The system provides near real-time updates based on hydrological modeling and satellite based precipitation estimates, and has recently been augmented by a seasonal forecast component. We discuss the

Droughts of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries: Influences on the production of beef and forage in Kentucky, USA.

PubMed

Craft, Kortney E; Mahmood, Rezaul; King, Stephen A; Goodrich, Gregory; Yan, Jun

2016-10-28

Drought affects societies world-wide in many different ways. It is a natural hazard that is complex and not well understood and as a result, its impacts are often poorly documented. The purpose of this research is to quantify (in dollars) the impacts of drought on Kentucky's beef and forage (hay) production. Observations suggest that the most important droughts in Kentucky occurred in 1930-31, 1940-42, 1952-55, 1987-88, 1999-2000 and 2007. The total state revenue for these commodities were analyzed during these severe drought years and non-drought years. The research estimated revenue deficit from these severe droughts in Kentucky for these (beef and hay) agricultural commodities. This study is important to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of drought impacts should help identify drought vulnerabilities and result in better risk management and mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

" adaptation) or over a 30-year period centred around the date considered ("prospective" adaptation). These adaptation scenarios are translated into local-scale transient drought thresholds, as opposed to a non-adaptation scenario where the drought threshold remains constant. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics derived from the theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation. This study thus proposes a proof of concept for using standardized drought indices for (1) assessing projections of spatio-temporal drought characteristics and (2) building theoretical adaptation scenarios and associated perceived changes in hydrological impact studies (Vidal et al., submitted). Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Franchistéguy L., Habets F., Soubeyroux J.-M., Blanchard M. & Baillon M. (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 459-478.doi: 10.5194/hess-14-459-2010 Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Kitova N., Najac J. & Soubeyroux, J. M. (submitted) Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios. Submitted to Hydrology and earth System Sciences

Physiological and Proteomic Adaptation of the Alpine Grass Stipa purpurea to a Drought Gradient

PubMed Central

Yang, Yunqiang; Dong, Chao; Yang, Shihai; Li, Xiong; Sun, Xudong; Yang, Yongping

2015-01-01

Stipa purpurea, an endemic forage species on the Tibetan Plateau, is highly resistant to cold and drought, but the mechanisms underlying its responses to drought stress remain elusive. An understanding of such mechanisms may be useful for developing cultivars that are adaptable to water deficit. In this study, we analyzed the physiological and proteomic responses of S. purpurea under increasing drought stress. Seedlings of S. purpurea were subjected to a drought gradient in a controlled experiment, and proteins showing changes in abundance under these conditions were identified by two-dimensional electrophoresis followed by mass spectrometry analysis. A western blotting analysis was conducted to confirm the increased abundance of a heat-shock protein, NCED2, and a dehydrin in S. purpurea seedlings under drought conditions. We detected carbonylated proteins to identify oxidation-sensitive proteins in S. purpurea seedlings, and found that ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase (RuBisCO) was one of the oxidation-sensitive proteins under drought. Together, these results indicated drought stress might inhibit photosynthesis in S. purpurea by oxidizing RuBisCO, but the plants were able to maintain photosynthetic efficiency by a compensatory upregulation of unoxidized RuBisCO and other photosynthesis-related proteins. Further analyses confirmed that increased abundance of antioxidant enzymes could balance the redox status of the plants to mitigate drought-induced oxidative damage. PMID:25646623

Global warming accelerates drought-induced forest death

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDowell, Nathan; Pockman, William

2013-07-09

Many southwestern forests in the United States will disappear or be heavily altered by 2050, according to a series of joint Los Alamos National Laboratory-University of New Mexico studies. Nathan McDowell, a Los Alamos plant physiologist, and William Pockman, a UNM biology professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as air temperatures rise in combination with drought. "Everybody knows trees die when there's a drought, if there's bark beetles or fire, yet nobody in the world can predict it withmore » much accuracy." McDowell said. "What's really changed is that the temperature is going up," thus the researchers are imposing artificial drought conditions on segments of wild forest in the Southwest and pushing forests to their limit to discover the exact processes of mortality and survival. The study is centered on drought experiments in woodlands at both Los Alamos and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. Both sites are testing hypotheses about how forests die on mature, wild trees, rather than seedlings in a greenhouse, through the ecosystem-scale removal of 50 percent of yearly precipitation through large water-diversion trough systems.« less

Global warming accelerates drought-induced forest death

ScienceCinema

McDowell, Nathan; Pockman, William

2018-05-16

Many southwestern forests in the United States will disappear or be heavily altered by 2050, according to a series of joint Los Alamos National Laboratory-University of New Mexico studies. Nathan McDowell, a Los Alamos plant physiologist, and William Pockman, a UNM biology professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as air temperatures rise in combination with drought. "Everybody knows trees die when there's a drought, if there's bark beetles or fire, yet nobody in the world can predict it with much accuracy." McDowell said. "What's really changed is that the temperature is going up," thus the researchers are imposing artificial drought conditions on segments of wild forest in the Southwest and pushing forests to their limit to discover the exact processes of mortality and survival. The study is centered on drought experiments in woodlands at both Los Alamos and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. Both sites are testing hypotheses about how forests die on mature, wild trees, rather than seedlings in a greenhouse, through the ecosystem-scale removal of 50 percent of yearly precipitation through large water-diversion trough systems.

Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.

2012-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt

2011-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

The effect of triazole induced photosynthetic pigments and biochemical constituents of Zea mays L. (Maize) under drought stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajasekar, Mahalingam; Rabert, Gabriel Amalan; Manivannan, Paramasivam

2016-06-01

In this investigation, pot culture experiment was carried out to estimate the ameliorating effect of triazole compounds, namely Triadimefon (TDM), Tebuconazole (TBZ), and Propiconazole (PCZ) on drought stress, photosynthetic pigments, and biochemical constituents of Zea mays L. (Maize). From 30 days after sowing (DAS), the plants were subjected to 4 days interval drought (DID) stress and drought with TDM at 15 mg l-1, TBZ at 10 mg l-1, and PCZ at 15 mg l-1. Irrigation at 1-day interval was kept as control. Irrigation performed on alternative day. The plant samples were collected on 40, 50, and 60 DAS and separated into root, stem, and leaf for estimating the photosynthetic pigments and biochemical constituents. Drought and drought with triazole compounds treatment increased the biochemical glycine betaine content, whereas the protein and the pigments contents chlorophyll-a, chlorophyll-b, total chlorophyll, carotenoid, and anthocyanin decreased when compared to control. The triazole treatment mitigated the adverse effects of drought stress by increasing the biochemical potentials and paved the way to overcome drought stress in corn plant.

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

While damage or vulnerability functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is comparably little knowledge on drought damage or loss. On the one hand this is due to the complexity of the drought hazard affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity. Hence, a single hazard indicator is likely not able to fully capture this multifaceted hazard. On the other hand, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetize. Examples are impaired navigability of streams, restrictions on domestic water use, reduced hydropower production, reduced tree growth, and irreversible deterioration/loss of wetlands. Apart from reduced crop yield, data about drought damage or loss with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is scarce, making the development of drought damage functions difficult. As an intermediate step towards drought damage functions we exploit text-based reports on drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter to derive surrogate information for drought damage or loss. First, text-based information on drought impacts is converted into timeseries of absence versus presence of impacts, or number of impact occurrences. Second, meaningful hydro-meteorological indicators characterizing drought intensity are identified. Third, different statistical models are tested as link functions relating drought hazard indicators with drought impacts: 1) logistic regression for drought impacts coded as binary response variable; and 2) mixture/hurdle models (zero-inflated/zero-altered negative binomial regression) and an ensemble regression tree approach for modeling the number of drought impact occurrences. Testing the predictability of (number of) drought impact occurrences based on cross-validation revealed a good agreement between observed and modeled (number of) impacts for regions at the scale of federal states or

Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, C.

2015-12-01

Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Hurtt, George; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-02-19

The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon12 efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial sequestration capacity is affected by future climate feedbacks, but how and to what extent is little understood. Here, we show that climate mitigation strategies are highly sensitive to future natural disturbance rates (e.g. fires, hurricanes, droughts), because ofmore » potential effect of disturbances on the terrestrial carbon balance. Generally, altered disturbance rates affect the pace of societal and technological transitions required to achieve the mitigation target, with substantial consequences on the energy sector and on the global economy. Understanding the future dynamics and consequences of natural disturbances on terrestrial carbon balance is thus essential for developing robust climate mitigation strategies and policies« less

Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

2011-12-01

Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

Habitat-specific AMF symbioses enhance drought tolerance of a native Kenyan grass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petipas, Renee H.; González, Jonathan B.; Palmer, Todd M.; Brody, Alison K.

2017-01-01

The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) in enhancing plant tolerance to drought is well known. However, the degree to which AMF-plant symbioses are locally adapted has been suggested but is less well understood, especially at small spatial scales. Here, we examined the effects of two arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities on drought tolerance of Themeda triandra, a native African perennial bunchgrass. In our study area, mound building activities of Odontotermes sp. termites produce heterogeneous habitat, particularly with respect to water availability, and do so over small spatial scales (<50 m). Thus, plants and their AMF symbionts may experience identical climatic conditions but very different edaphic conditions. We hypothesized that AMF from off-mound areas, where plants experience drought more intensely than on termite mounds, would confer greater protection from drought conditions than AMF from termite mound soils. To test this, we conducted a greenhouse experiment in which we grew plants in soils that we inoculated with fungi from on or off termite mounds, or with a sterilized control inoculum. Our results reveal habitat-specific AMF effects on host stomatal functioning and growth. Contrary to our expectations, drought stressed grasses inoculated with AMF from termite mounds closed stomata less, and produced 60% more leaves than those inoculated with off-mound AMF, thus exhibiting higher levels of tolerance. Mound-inoculated plants that were drought stressed also produced more than twice as many leaves as non-inoculated plants. Longer-term productivity measurements indicate both on- and off-mound inoculated plants were able to recover to a greater extent than non-inoculated plants, indicating that AMF associations in general help plants recover from drought. These findings highlight the important role that AMF play in mitigating drought stress and indicate that AMF affect how plants experience drought in a small scale, habitat-specific manner.

Users' reaction to the drought of 2014 in Lebanon; quantifying the effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farajalla, Nadim; Haydamous, Patricia; El Hajj, Rana

2016-04-01

A drought that Lebanon witnessed during the water cycle of 2013-2014 seemed to mimic the expected decrease in precipitation projected in one of the 2020 scenarios reported in Lebanon's second national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Nationally, data and assessment studies on drought impacts are generally lacking, and thus, this drought presented an opportunity to quantify drought effects. In the aim of understanding the effect drought has on the Lebanese economy, and its different sectors, a survey was conducted to set a baseline of the changes in the direct cost of water as well as other impacts that might have resulted on the water users. The survey reached out to different sectors to include the touristic establishments, industries, agriculture holders, and households. The sample selection and the data collection underwent several controls in order to ensure unbiased data. Moreover, a descriptive analysis was produced from the survey results, using STATA and Microsoft Excel. The main results have shown a shift of dependency towards water tankers during the drought season as opposed to the normal higher dependency on the public networks and private wells. Moreover, the cost incurred in general showed an average of 32% increase to the previous water bills across the different sectors, this in return is expected to have ripple effects on the national economy accounting for around 13.5% of GDP. However, the survey showed that little was done in terms of long term adaptation on the consumers' side, where most of the adaptation done included awareness campaigns for an economized water usage on the short term. The survey brought forward the un-preparedness of the country to react to such extreme events due to the absence of drought preparedness and management plan. . The results highlight the projected losses the country will have if no proper adaptation measures were taken. These impacts were caused by a one-year drought

The psychological impact of chronic environmental adversity: Responding to prolonged drought.

PubMed

Stain, Helen J; Kelly, Brian; Carr, Vaughan J; Lewin, Terry J; Fitzgerald, Michael; Fragar, Lyn

2011-12-01

The health effects of chronic environmental adversity have received insufficient attention, particularly those associated with the psychological impact of drought. Resilience or adaptive response to drought has received even less attention than vulnerability factors. This research examined factors associated with drought impact in rural and remote Australian communities. In 2008 postal surveys were completed by 302 adults (mean age 53 years; 57% female, 77% married) living in rural areas of prolonged drought exposure. Outcome measures were: (i) psychological distress (Kessler 10) and (ii) an index of concern or worry about drought. A range of predictor variables were assessed: adaptability (hopefulness, neuroticism), other adverse events, personal support and community connectedness, and sense of place, as a measure of connection to the local environment. Predictors of drought related worry differed from those associated with psychological distress levels. The former included socio-economic factors (living on a farm [Odds Ratio, OR 3.09], current employment [OR 3.64]), personal psychological characteristics (neuroticism [OR 1.29]), and greater connection with the environment (sense of place [OR 1.05]). On the other hand, psychological distress was associated chiefly with personal factors, such as higher neuroticism [OR 1.92], lower levels of hopefulness [OR 0.28], and lower perceived social support and community connectedness [OR 0.39]. Practical financial, employment and family factors were identified as important elements of drought impact, as to a lesser extent was sense of place, reflecting a confrontation with the consequences of chronic environmental degradation, while personal hopefulness may help mitigate the psychological impact of such adversity. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SWAPDT: A method for Short-time Withering Assessment of Probability for Drought Tolerance in Camellia sinensis validated by targeted metabolomics.

PubMed

Nyarukowa, Christopher; Koech, Robert; Loots, Theodor; Apostolides, Zeno

2016-07-01

Climate change is causing droughts affecting crop production on a global scale. Classical breeding and selection strategies for drought-tolerant cultivars will help prevent crop losses. Plant breeders, for all crops, need a simple and reliable method to identify drought-tolerant cultivars, but such a method is missing. Plant metabolism is often disrupted by abiotic stress conditions. To survive drought, plants reconfigure their metabolic pathways. Studies have documented the importance of metabolic regulation, i.e. osmolyte accumulation such as polyols and sugars (mannitol, sorbitol); amino acids (proline) during drought. This study identified and quantified metabolites in drought tolerant and drought susceptible Camellia sinensis cultivars under wet and drought stress conditions. For analyses, GC-MS and LC-MS were employed for metabolomics analysis.%RWC results show how the two drought tolerant and two drought susceptible cultivars differed significantly (p≤0.05) from one another; the drought susceptible exhibited rapid water loss compared to the drought tolerant. There was a significant variation (p<0.05) in metabolite content (amino acid, sugars) between drought tolerant and drought susceptible tea cultivars after short-time withering conditions. These metabolite changes were similar to those seen in other plant species under drought conditions, thus validating this method. The Short-time Withering Assessment of Probability for Drought Tolerance (SWAPDT) method presented here provides an easy method to identify drought tolerant tea cultivars that will mitigate the effects of drought due to climate change on crop losses. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, I.; Maskey, S.; Mussá, F. E. F.; Trambauer, P.

2014-09-01

widespread droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in the future.

A review of droughts in the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, I.; Maskey, S.; Mussá, F. E. F.; Trambauer, P.

2014-03-01

droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in future.

Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2016-04-01

Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

Drought occurence

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2007-01-01

Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

Remote sensing techniques for monitoring drought hazards: an intercomparison (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, J. F.; Anderson, M. C.; Wardlow, B. D.; Svoboda, M. D.

2009-12-01

Drought events are frequently described using many different terms; for example, recurring climate phenomena, creeping natural hazards, agricultural disasters, and moisture deficiencies. In addition, droughts operate at many different spatial and temporal scales and affect different societal sectors, making them quite challenging to monitor, map, and assess impacts. Because of these factors, determining drought severity often requires using a convergence of evidence assisted by an analysis of multiple drought indicators. Frequent optical and thermal observations collected by daily polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites allow for regular monitoring of the land surface. In recent decades, with the launching of more advanced sensors and the maturation of remote sensing techniques, a variety of tools have been designed for improved understanding and tracking of drought events as they are occurring. These applications are intended to provide key decision makers with timely geospatial drought information to support various drought planning and mitigation activities. Two such tools highlighted in this study, are the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI). While both indices incorporate satellite-based inputs, they are involved in different modeling approaches and observations from different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The VegDRI is a hybrid remote sensing and climate based indicator of drought-induced vegetation stress that combines satellite-based vegetation index observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors with climate-based drought index data and other biophysical parameters (such as land use/land cover type and soil characteristics). VegDRI provides near real-time vegetation drought severity information at relatively higher spatial resolution (1-km2) than traditional climatic drought indices such as the Standardized

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

Epidemiological Investigation of a Diarrhea Outbreak in the South Pacific Island Nation of Tuvalu During a Severe La Niña–Associated Drought Emergency in 2011

PubMed Central

Emont, Jordan P.; Ko, Albert I.; Homasi-Paelate, Avanoa; Ituaso-Conway, Nese; Nilles, Eric J.

2017-01-01

The association between heavy rainfall and an increased risk of diarrhea has been well established but less is known about the effect of drought on diarrhea transmission. In 2011, the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu experienced a concurrent severe La Niña–associated drought and large diarrhea outbreak. We conducted a field investigation in Tuvalu to identify factors that contributed to epidemic transmission in the context of a drought emergency. Peak case numbers coincided with the nadir of recorded monthly rainfall, the lowest recorded since 1930. Independent factors associated with increased risk of diarrhea were households with water tank levels below 20% (odds ratio [OR] = 2.31; 95% confidence interval = 1.16–4.60) and decreased handwashing frequency (OR = 3.00 [1.48–6.08]). The resolution of the outbreak occurred after implementation of a hygiene promotion campaign, despite persistent drought and limited water access. These findings are potentially important given projections that future climate change will cause more frequent and severe droughts. PMID:28138046

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Biochar alters the resistance and resilience to drought in a tropical soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chenfei; Zhu, Xiaolin; Fu, Shenglei; Méndez, Ana; Gascó, Gabriel; Paz-Ferreiro, Jorge

2014-05-01

Soil microbes play a key role in nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Global change can alter soil microbial population composition and behavior. Biochar addition has been explored in the last years as a way to mitigate global warming. However, responses of microbial communities to biochar addition in particular in relation to abiotic disturbances are seldom documented. An example of these disturbances, which is predicted to be exacerbated with global warming, is regional drought. It has been known that fungal-based food webs are more resistant to drought than their bacterial counterparts. Our study found that biochar addition can increase the resistance of both the bacterial and fungal networks to drought. Contrary to expected, this result was not related to a change in the dominance of fungal or bacteria. In general, soil amended with biochar was characterized by a faster recovery of soil microbial properties to its basal values. Biochar addition to the soil also suppressed the Birch effect, a result that has not been previously reported.

Assessing Aridity, Hydrological Drought, and Recovery Using GRACE and GLDAS: a Case Study in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Almamalachy, Y. S.; Yan, H.; Ahmadalipour, A.; Irannezhad, M.

2016-12-01

Iraq has suffered from several drought events during the period of 2003-2012, which imposed substantial impacts on natural environment and socioeconomic sectors, e.g. lower discharge of Tigris and Euphrates, groundwater depletion and increase in its salinity, population migration, and agricultural degradation. To investigate the aridity and climatology of Iraq, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) monthly datasets of precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration at 0.25 degree spatial resolution are used. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived monthly Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) deficit is used as the hydrological drought indicator. The data is available globally at 1 degree spatial resolution. This study aims to monitor hydrological drought and assess drought recovery time for the period of August 2002 until December 2015. Two approaches are implemented to derive the GRACE-based TWS deficit. The first approach estimates the TWS deficit based on the difference from its own climatology, while the second approach directly calculates the deficit from TWS anomaly. Severity of drought events are calculated by integrating monthly water deficit over the drought period. The results indicate that both methods are capable of capturing the severe drought events in Iraq, while the second approach quantifies higher deficit and severity. In addition, two methods are employed to assess drought recovery time based on the estimated deficit. Both methods indicate similar drought recovery times, varying from less than a month to 9 months. The results demonstrate that the GRACE TWS is a reliable indicator for drought assessment over Iraq, and provides useful information to decision makers for developing drought adaptation and mitigation strategies over data-sparse regions.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure

Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

2013-04-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur

Drought evolution, severity and trends in mainland China over 1961-2013.

PubMed

Yao, Ning; Li, Yi; Lei, Tianjie; Peng, Lingling

2018-03-01

Droughts have destructive impacts on crop yields and water supplies, and researching droughts is vital for societal stability and human life. This work aimed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of droughts in mainland China over 1961-2013 using four drought indices. These indices were the percentage of precipitation anomaly (Pa), standard precipitation index (SPI), standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) at multiple timescales ranging from 1-week to 24-month. The variations of the SPI, SPEI and EDDI were compared with historical severe or extreme droughts. The general increases of the Pa, SPI and SPEI, and general decrease of the EDDI, consistently implied an overall relief of drought conditions over 1961-2013. The different drought indices revealed historical drought conditions, including the national extreme droughts in 1961, 1965, 1972, 1978, 1986, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1997, 1999 and 2000, but various drought severity levels were classified for each drought event since the classification standards differed. Although the SPI and SPEI performed better than the EDDI and there were higher correlations between the SPI and the SPEI, all the indices were regional- or station-specific and have identified historical severe or extreme drought events. At shorter timescales, the EDDI revealed earlier onsets and ends of flash droughts, unlike those indicated by the SPI and SPEI. The comparison of the different indices based on the historical drought events confirmed the uses of the Pa, SPI and SPEI for determining continuous droughts and that of the EDDI for identifying flash droughts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow, resource optimization, and potential effects of prolonged drought for the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryter, Derek W.; Kunkel, Christopher D.; Peterson, Steven M.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

2015-08-13

The hypothetical decrease in recharge during the simulated drought caused groundwater in storage over the entire model in the study area to decrease by 361,500 acre-feet (14,100 acre-feet in the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and 347,400 acre-feet in the Central Oklahoma aquifer), or approximately 0.2 percent of the total groundwater in storage over the drought period. This small percentage of groundwater loss showed that the Central Oklahoma aquifer as a bedrock aquifer has relatively low rates of recharge from the surface relative to the approximate storage. The budget for base flow to the North Canadian River indicated that the change in groundwater flow to the North Canadian River decreased during the 10-year drought by 386,500 acre-feet, or 37 percent. In all other parts of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, base flow decreased by 292,000 acre-feet, or 28 percent. Streamflow in the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station at Shawnee, Okla., decreased during the hypothetical drought by as much as 28 percent, and the mean change in streamflow decreased as much as 16 percent. Streamflow at the Shawnee streamflow-gaging station did not recover to nondrought conditions until about 3 years after the simulated drought ended, during the relatively wet year of 2007.

DroughtView: Satellite Based Drought Monitoring and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartfield, K. A.; Van Leeuwen, W. J. D.; Crimmins, M.; Marsh, S. E.; Torrey, Y.; Rahr, M.; Orr, B. J.

2014-12-01

Drought is an ever growing concern within the United States and Mexico. Extended periods of below-average precipitation can adversely affect agricultural production and ecosystems, impact local water resources and create conditions prime for wildfire. DroughtView (www.droughtview.arizona.edu) is a new on-line resource for scientists, natural resource managers, and the public that brings a new perspective to remote-sensing based drought impact assessment that is not currently available. DroughtView allows users to monitor the impact of drought on vegetation cover for the entire continental United States and the northern regions of Mexico. As a spatially and temporally dynamic geospatial decision support tool, DroughtView is an excellent educational introduction to the relationship between remotely sensed vegetation condition and drought. The system serves up Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data generated from 250 meter 16-day composite Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery from 2000 to the present. Calculation of difference from average, previous period and previous year greenness products provide the user with a proxy for drought conditions and insight on the secondary impacts of drought, such as wildfire. The various image products and overlays are served up via the ArcGIS Server platform. DroughtView serves as a useful tool to introduce and teach vegetation time series analysis to those unfamiliar with the science. High spatial resolution imagery is available as a reference layer to locate points of interest, zoom in and export images for implementation in reports and presentations. Animation of vegetation time series allows users to examine ecosystem disturbances and climate data is also available to examine the relationship between precipitation, temperature and vegetation. The tool is mobile friendly allowing users to access the system while in the field. The systems capabilities and

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Drought in China: Reconstructed from Historical Memorials Archives during 1689-1911

PubMed Central

Wan, Jinhong; Yan, Denghua; Fu, Guobin; Hao, Lu; Yue, Yaojie; Li, Ruoxi; Li, Yunpeng; Liu, Jiangang; Deng, Jun

2016-01-01

In China, Zou Zhe (Memorials to the Throne, or Palace Memorials), an official communication to the emperors of China by local officials, offers an opportunity to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distributions of droughts at a high-resolution. A 223-year, 1689–1911, time series of drought events was reconstructed in this study based on 2494 pieces of Zou Zhe. The results show that: 1) on the temporal scale, the drought affected areas, i.e., number of affected counties, showed three peak periods during the last 223 years and nine extreme drought years with more than 300 counties affected have been identified; 2) on the spatial scale, there existed three drought-prone areas in China, i.e., Gansu province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Northwest China, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces and Tianjin in the North China, and Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in Jianghuai area, respectively; 3) the drought-prone areas have been expanding from North China to South China since the second half of 19th century; 4) on the seasonal scale, summer witnessed the largest number of drought events. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the results were also discussed, i.e. what caused the spatial-temporal distribution of drought. The results of this study can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events on food increasing and stable production. PMID:26836807

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Drought in China: Reconstructed from Historical Memorials Archives during 1689-1911.

PubMed

Wan, Jinhong; Yan, Denghua; Fu, Guobin; Hao, Lu; Yue, Yaojie; Li, Ruoxi; Li, Yunpeng; Liu, Jiangang; Deng, Jun

2016-01-01

In China, Zou Zhe (Memorials to the Throne, or Palace Memorials), an official communication to the emperors of China by local officials, offers an opportunity to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distributions of droughts at a high-resolution. A 223-year, 1689-1911, time series of drought events was reconstructed in this study based on 2494 pieces of Zou Zhe. The results show that: 1) on the temporal scale, the drought affected areas, i.e., number of affected counties, showed three peak periods during the last 223 years and nine extreme drought years with more than 300 counties affected have been identified; 2) on the spatial scale, there existed three drought-prone areas in China, i.e., Gansu province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Northwest China, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces and Tianjin in the North China, and Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in Jianghuai area, respectively; 3) the drought-prone areas have been expanding from North China to South China since the second half of 19th century; 4) on the seasonal scale, summer witnessed the largest number of drought events. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the results were also discussed, i.e. what caused the spatial-temporal distribution of drought. The results of this study can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events on food increasing and stable production.

Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

2015-04-01

In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts

Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

2014-09-01

Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than

Probabilistic drought intensification forecasts using temporal patterns of satellite-derived drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sumin; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyeong

2016-04-01

A drought occurs when the condition of below-average precipitation in a region continues, resulting in prolonged water deficiency. A drought can last for weeks, months or even years, so can have a great influence on various ecosystems including human society. In order to effectively reduce agricultural and economic damage caused by droughts, drought monitoring and forecasts are crucial. Drought forecast research is typically conducted using in situ observations (or derived indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) and physical models. Recently, satellite remote sensing has been used for short term drought forecasts in combination with physical models. In this research, drought intensification was predicted using satellite-derived drought indices such as Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (NMDI), and Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over the Korean Peninsula. Time series of each drought index at the 8 day interval was investigated to identify drought intensification patterns. Drought condition at the previous time step (i.e., 8 days before) and change in drought conditions between two previous time steps (e.g., between 16 days and 8 days before the time step to forecast) Results show that among three drought indices, SDCI provided the best performance to predict drought intensification compared to NDDI and NMDI through qualitative assessment. When quantitatively compared with SPI, SDCI showed a potential to be used for forecasting short term drought intensification. Finally this research provided a SDCI-based equation to predict short term drought intensification optimized over the Korean Peninsula.

Images Show Severity of California Drought

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-07-23

The effects of California severe multiyear drought are seen in this pair of images acquired by NASA Terra spacecraft of the area northeast of Madera, in the Sierra Nevada Moutains foothills between Yosemite National Park and the San Joaquin Valley

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

Probabilistic assessment of phenophase-wise agricultural drought risk under different sowing windows: a case study with rainfed soybean.

PubMed

Dhakar, Rajkumar; Sarath Chandran, M A; Nagar, Shivani; Visha Kumari, V

2017-11-23

A new methodology for crop-growth stage-specific assessment of agricultural drought risk under a variable sowing window is proposed for the soybean crop. It encompasses three drought indices, which include Crop-Specific Drought Index (CSDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The unique features of crop-growth stage-specific nature and spatial and multi-scalar coverage provide a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought risk. This study was conducted in 10 major soybean-growing districts of Madhya Pradesh state of India. These areas contribute about 60% of the total soybean production for the country. The phenophase most vulnerable to agricultural drought was identified (germination and flowering in our case) for each district across four sowing windows. The agricultural drought risk was quantified at various severity levels (moderate, severe, and very severe) for each growth stage and sowing window. Validation of the proposed new methodology also yielded results with a high correlation coefficient between percent probability of agricultural drought risk and yield risk (r = 0.92). Assessment by proximity matrix yielded a similar statistic. Expectations for the proposed methodology are better mitigation-oriented management and improved crop contingency plans for planners and decision makers.

Simulated heat waves affected alpine grassland only in combination with drought.

PubMed

De Boeck, Hans J; Bassin, Seraina; Verlinden, Maya; Zeiter, Michaela; Hiltbrunner, Erika

2016-01-01

The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440-660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv /Fm , a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

The Effects of Saltwater Intrusion to Flood Mitigation Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azida Abu Bakar, Azinoor; Khairudin Khalil, Muhammad

2018-03-01

The objective of this study is to determine the effects of saltwater intrusion to flood mitigation project located in the flood plains in the district of Muar, Johor. Based on the studies and designs carried out, one of the effective flood mitigation options identified is the Kampung Tanjung Olak bypass and Kampung Belemang bypass at the lower reaches of Sungai Muar. But, the construction of the Kampung Belemang and Tanjung Olak bypass, while speeding up flood discharges, may also increase saltwater intrusion during drought low flows. Establishing the dynamics of flooding, including replicating the existing situation and the performance with prospective flood mitigation interventions, is most effectively accomplished using computer-based modelling tools. The finding of this study shows that to overcome the problem, a barrage should be constructed at Sungai Muar to solve the saltwater intrusion and low yield problem of the river.

Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

2013-12-01

Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI

Drought Effects on Agricultural Yield: Comparison Across Regions and Crop Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daryanto, S.; Wang, L.; Jacinthe, P. A.

2014-12-01

Global agricultural production is dominated by rainfed agriculture, and is therefore prone to disruption from climate extreme weathers. These uncertainties become more problematic when considering the projection of increased drought frequency suggested by several climate models for various world regions. Curiously, few regional analyses of drought impact of food production have been attempted. We collated and analyzed data from the last 25 years to disentangle the effects of drought (i.e. timing, intensity and duration) on agricultural production in different eco-regions and with varying crop types. Our preliminary results suggested greater yield reduction in annual (-21.5%) than perennial plants (-16%), in C4 (-21%) compared to C3 crops (-17%), and when drought occurred during generative (i.e. flowering until maturity; -16.5%) than vegetative stage (-15.5%). Although drought caused similar amounts of yield reduction in both tropical and subtropical regions (i.e. -17%), it carries a greater food security risk in the tropics due to inherently low productivity (i.e. less than half than in the subtropical regions). Consequently, cultivating drought-resistant C3 perennial plants (e.g. sweet potato and cassava) in the tropics could prove a viable adaptive strategy to mitigate the effects of climate variability. In addition, these crops have limited input requirements, are well adapted to nutrient-poor Oxisols and Ultisols of the tropics, and generally outyield cereal crops in the region. Our analysis is ongoing and needs to take into account agronomic traits (e.g. water requirement), as well as the energy and nutritional values (e.g. protein, minerals) of alternative crops. Our results could inform the selection and development of new cultivars for the drought-prone regions of the world.

75 FR 8046 - National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Draft Guidance, “NEPA Mitigation and Monitoring.”

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Draft Guidance, ``NEPA Mitigation and Monitoring.'' AGENCY: Council On Environmental Quality. ACTION: Notice of Availability, Draft... Quality (CEQ) announced four steps to modernize, reinvigorate, and ease the use and increase the...

A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jingwen; Miao, Chiyuan; Tang, Xu; Duan, Qingyun; He, Xiaojia

2018-02-01

Drought is one of the world's most recurrent and destructive hazards, and the evolution of drought events has become increasingly complex against a background of climate change and changing human activities. Over the last five decades, there have been frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau in China. In this study, we used the nonparametric standardized runoff index (NSRI) to investigate the temporal characteristics of hydrological drought in 17 Loess Plateau catchments during the period 1961-2013. Furthermore, we used a cross-wavelet transform to reveal linkages between an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the NSRI series. The primary results indicated that the annual and seasonal NSRI series displayed statistically significantly downward trends in all catchments, with the only exception being the winter NSRI series in Yanhe. Furthermore, our analyses showed downward trends persisting into the future in all 17 catchments except Yanhe. We also found that, overall, the risk of hydrological drought was high on the Loess Plateau, with the mean duration at the seasonal scale exceeding 4 months and the mean duration at the annual scale exceeding 12 months. Moreover, during recent years, the trend towards hydrological drought was greater in the spring than in other seasons. ENSO events were closely associated with annual and seasonal hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, and the impact of ENSO events was stronger in the southeast of the plateau than the northwest at both seasonal and annual scales. These results may provide valuable information about the evolutionary characteristics of hydrological drought across the Loess Plateau and may also be useful for predicting and mitigating future hydrological drought on the plateau.

Involvement of dehydrins in 24-epibrassinolide-induced protection of wheat plants against drought stress.

PubMed

Shakirova, Farida; Allagulova, Chulpan; Maslennikova, Dilara; Fedorova, Kristina; Yuldashev, Ruslan; Lubyanova, Alsu; Bezrukova, Marina; Avalbaev, Azamat

2016-11-01

In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of the physiological and biochemical parameters of wheat cultivars with contrasting drought resistance, drought-resistant Omskaya 35 (O-35) and less drought-resistant Salavat Yulaev (SYu), during 7-day germination under drought stress simulated by 5% mannitol. In addition, we evaluated the effectiveness of pre-sowing seed treatment with 0.4 μM 24-epibrassinolide (EBR) used to increase the resistance of plants of both cultivars to drought stress. It was revealed that mannitol has caused significant changes in the hormonal balance of the plants of both cultivars, associated with abscisic acid (ABA) accumulation and decrease in the contents of indoleacetic acid (IAA) and cytokinins (CKs). It should be noted that more dramatic changes in the content of phytohormones were characteristic for seedlings of SYu cultivar, which was reflected in a stronger growth inhibition of these plants. Pretreatment with EBR mitigated the negative effect of drought on the hormonal status and growth of seedlings during their germination. Furthermore, we found that drought caused accumulation of dehydrin (DHN) proteins, especially of low molecular weight DHNs, whose abundance was 2.5 times greater in O-35 cultivar than in SYu plants. EBR-pretreated plants of both cultivars were characterized by the additional accumulation of DHNs, indicating their involvement in the development of the EBR-induced wheat drought resistance. The use of fluridone allowed us to demonstrate ABA-dependent and ABA-independent pathways of regulation of low molecular mass dehydrins accumulation by EBR in wheat plants of both cultivars under drought conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, M.; Hasibeder, R.; Fuchslueger, L.; Ingrisch, J.; Ladreiter-Knauss, T.; Lair, G.; Reinthaler, D.; Richter, A.; Kaufmann, R.

2016-12-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing with

Does drought legacy alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahn, Michael; Hasibeder, Roland; Fuchslueger, Lucia; Ingrisch, Johannes; Ladreiter-Knauss, Thomas; Lair, Georg; Reinthaler, David; Richter, Andreas; Kaufmann, Rüdiger

2017-04-01

Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and the severity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, with consequences for the carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system. An important implication of increasing drought frequency is that possible legacies of previous droughts may increasingly affect ecosystem responses to new drought events, though this has been rarely tested. Based on a series of severe experimental droughts performed during nine subsequent years on a mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps, we present evidence of effects of drought legacies on the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought and analyse the underlying mechanisms. Both single and recurrent droughts led to increased aboveground productivity during drought recovery relative to control plots, favoring the biomass production and leaf area of grass species more strongly than of forbs. Belowground productivity was significantly increased during recovery. This led to higher total root length, even though specific root length was strongly reduced during recovery, particularly after recurrent drought events. Following rewetting, the temperature dependence of soil respiration was increasingly diminished and the Birch effect declined with progressive recurrence of droughts. This was paralleled by a change in soil aggregate stability and soil porosity in plots repeatedly exposed to drought. Isotopic pulse-labelling experiments revealed effects of drought legacy on plant carbon uptake and belowground allocation and altered microbial turnover of recent plant-derived carbon during and after a subsequent drought. Shifts in tissue nitrogen concentration indicate that drought effects on soil nitrogen turnover and availability could play an important role in the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics following both single and recurrent droughts. In conclusion, drought legacies can alter the recovery of grassland carbon dynamics from drought, the effects increasing

Evaporation mitigation by floating modular devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, M. M.; Peirson, W. L.

2016-05-01

Prolonged periods of drought and consequent evaporation from open water bodies in arid parts of Australia continue to be a threat to water availability for agricultural production. Over many parts of Australia, the annual average evaporation exceeds the annual precipitation by more than 5 times. Given its significance, it is surprising that no evaporation mitigation technique has gained widespread adoption to date. High capital and maintenance costs of manufactured products are a significant barrier to implementation. The use of directly recycled clean plastic containers as floating modular devices to mitigate evaporation has been investigated for the first time. A six-month trial at an arid zone site in Australia of this potential cost effective solution has been undertaken. The experiment was performed using clean conventional drinking water bottles as floating modules on the open water surface of 240-L tanks with three varying degrees of covering (nil, 34% and 68%). A systematic reduction in evaporation is demonstrated during the whole study period that is approximately linearly proportional to the covered surface. These results provide a potential foundation for robust evaporation mitigation with the prospect of implementing a cost-optimal design.

Assessment of Meteorological and Agriculture Drought Severity in Barani Areas of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haque, Saad Ul

2016-07-01

Drought is a natural hazard and part of climatic condition for all regions of the world. It is the condition of moisture deficit caused by a certain climatic conditions occurring at a specific location for a specific duration. Stems from the lack of precipitation, precipitation deficiency for a season, a year or longer and is triggered, when water supplies become insufficient to meet the requirements. Pakistan predominantly consists of arid and semiarid regions with a diversified climate where Agriculture sector plays a vital role in countries economy, as it is the largest sector of Pakistan, accounting for over 20.9 percent of GDP. Nearly 62 percent of the country's rural population and is directly or indirectly linked with agriculture for their livelihood. (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2011). Thus, for such type of landscapes where agriculture mainly depends on the amount of precipitation and there is no use of canal irrigation system, so there is a need to make some immediate interventions in the area of drought hazard management & a proactive planning to mitigate its adverse impacts. In this study drought is assessed on its sequential stages, first of all meteorological conditions that include rainfall data and MODIS Satellite NDVI product, having good temporal resolution for drought assessment in order to identify dry spell period. This whole waterless season leads to agricultural drought as crops and vegetation begin to degrade with low production rate. Some more parameters such as Max. Temperature, Humidity, Solar Radiation, Evapotranspiration were incorporated by assigning suitable weights according to their sensitivity for drought. Severity of Agricultural drought was determine by using NDVI anomaly and crop anomaly pattern. Finally, the correlation regression analysis was performed to identify the effect of different dependent variables on their supporting parameters. The combined drought severity map was generated by overlying the agricultural and

8 CFR 280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 280.5... AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or... Examinations, or the Director for the National Fines Office for such mitigation or remission. [22 FR 9807, Dec...

8 CFR 280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 280.5... AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or... Examinations, or the Director for the National Fines Office for such mitigation or remission. [22 FR 9807, Dec...

8 CFR 280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 280.5... AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or... Examinations, or the Director for the National Fines Office for such mitigation or remission. [22 FR 9807, Dec...

8 CFR 280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 280.5... AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or... Examinations, or the Director for the National Fines Office for such mitigation or remission. [22 FR 9807, Dec...

8 CFR 280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 280.5... AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or... Examinations, or the Director for the National Fines Office for such mitigation or remission. [22 FR 9807, Dec...

Forecasts of Agricultural Drought in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Gunda, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

2015-12-01

As the most frequent natural disaster in Sri Lanka, drought greatly affects crop production and livelihoods. Over half of all agricultural crop damage in Sri Lanka is currently due to drought; the frequency and severity of drought in the country is only expected to increase with the changing climate. Previous work indicates that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are capable of capturing agricultural drought patterns (between 1881-2010) in the island nation. In this work, PDSI and SPI from 13 long-term meteorological stations will be projected into the future using a combination of artificial neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average models. The impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (such as the Niño 3.4 index, a measure of sea surface temperature) and lead times on projection accuracy will also be explored. Model projections will be compared to weather data since 2010 to determine if the 2014 drought could have been forecasted using these methods. Since agricultural systems are strongly influenced by both natural and human systems, it is important to frame these physical findings within a social context. This work is part of an interdisciplinary project that assesses the perceptions of and adaptations to drought by rice farmers in Sri Lanka; disciplines represented in the group include hydrology, social psychology, ethnography, policy, and behavioral economics. Insights from the diverse research perspectives within the group will be drawn upon to highlight the social implications of the physical results.

Spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the tropical Paraiba do Sul River Basin and responses to the Mega Drought in 2014-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauditt, Alexandra; Metzke, Daniel; Ribbe, Lars

2017-04-01

The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (56.000 km2) supplies water to the Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Their large metropolitan areas were strongly affected by a Mega drought during the years 2014 and 2015 with severe implications for domestic water supply, the hydropower sector as well as for rural agricultural downstream regions. Longer drought periods are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought characteristics, low flow hydrology and the reasons for the recurrent water scarcity in this water abundant tropical region are still poorly understood. In order to separate the impact of human abstractions from hydro-climatic and catchment storage related hydrological drought propagation, we assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of drought severity and duration establishing relationships between SPI, SRI and discharge threshold drought anomalies for all subcatchments of the PdS based on a comprehensive hydro-meteorological data set of the Brazilian National Water Agency ANA. The water allocation model "Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)" was established on a monthly basis for the entire Paraiba do Sul river basin incorporating human modifications of the hydrological system as major (hydropower) reservoirs and their operational rules, water diversions and major abstractions. It simulates reasonable discharges and reservoir levels comparable to the observed values. To evaluate the role of climate variability and drought responses for hydrological drought events, scenarios were developed to simulate discharge and reservoir level the impact of 1. Varying meteorological drought frequencies and durations and 2. Implementing operational rules as a response to drought. Uncertainties related to the drought assessment, modelling, parameter and input data were assessed. The outcome of this study for the first time provides an overview on the heterogeneous spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the Paraiba do Sul river basin and

On the Use of NASA Earth Observations to Characterize the 2012 US Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawford, Richard; Toll, David; Doorn, Bradley; Entin, Jared; Mocko, David; Svoboda, Mark; Rodell, Matthew; Koster, Randy; Schubert, Siegried; Liang, Xin-Zhong;

50 CFR 217.15 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 10 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Mitigation. 217.15 Section 217.15... Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, CA § 217.15 Mitigation. (a) The activity identified in § 217.11(a....11(a) of this chapter, the mitigation measures contained in the LOA issued under §§ 216.106 and 217...

50 CFR 217.15 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 10 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Mitigation. 217.15 Section 217.15... Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, CA § 217.15 Mitigation. (a) The activity identified in § 217.11(a....11(a) of this chapter, the mitigation measures contained in the LOA issued under §§ 216.106 and 217...

Assessing the vegetation condition impacts of the 2011 drought across the U.S. southern Great Plains using the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Fuchs, Brian; Gutzmer, Denise

2015-01-01

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.

Utilizing Objective Drought Thresholds to Improve Drought Monitoring with the SPI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leasor, Z. T.; Quiring, S. M.

2017-12-01

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Droughts are frequently monitored using the severity categories determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to conduct a drought frequency analysis across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas using PRISM precipitation data from 1900-2015. The SPI is shown to be spatiotemporally variant across the south-central United States. In particular, utilizing the default USDM severity thresholds may underestimate drought severity in arid regions. Objective drought thresholds were implemented by fitting a CDF to each location's SPI distribution. This approach results in a more homogeneous distribution of drought frequencies across each severity category. Results also indicate that it may be beneficial to develop objective drought thresholds for each season and SPI timescale. This research serves as a proof-of-concept and demonstrates how drought thresholds should be objectively developed so that they are appropriate for each climatic region.

Effect of drought and heat stresses on plant growth and yield: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, J.; Doussan, C.; Nosalewicz, A.; Kondracka, K.

2013-12-01

Drought and heat stresses are important threat limitations to plant growth and sustainable agriculture worldwide. Our objective is to provide a review of plant responses and adaptations to drought and elevated temperature including roots, shoots, and final yield and management approaches for alleviating adverse effects of the stresses based mostly on recent literature. The sections of the paper deal with plant responses including root growth, transpiration, photosynthesis, water use efficiency, phenotypic flexibility, accumulation of compounds of low molecular mass (eg proline and gibberellins), and expression of some genes and proteins for increasing the tolerance to the abiotic stresses. Soil and crop management practices to alleviate negative effects of drought and heat stresses are also discussed. Investigations involving determination of plant assimilate partitioning, phenotypic plasticity, and identification of most stress-tolerant plant genotypes are essential for understanding the complexity of the responses and for future plant breeding. The adverse effects of drought and heat stress can be mitigated by soil management practices, crop establishment, and foliar application of growth regulators by maintaining an appropriate level of water in the leaves due to osmotic adjustment and stomatal performance.

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

2017-04-01

Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

Drought response of Mucuna pruriens (L.) DC. inoculated with ACC deaminase and IAA producing rhizobacteria.

PubMed

Saleem, Aansa Rukya; Brunetti, Cecilia; Khalid, Azeem; Della Rocca, Gianni; Raio, Aida; Emiliani, Giovanni; De Carlo, Anna; Mahmood, Tariq; Centritto, Mauro

2018-01-01

Drought is one of the major constraints limiting agricultural production worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Limited water availability causes significant effects to plant growth and physiology. Plants have evolved different traits to mitigate the stress imposed by drought. The presence of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) could play an important role in improving plant performances and productivity under drought. These beneficial microorganisms colonize the rhizosphere of plants and increase drought tolerance by lowering ethylene formation. In the present study, we demonstrate the potential to improve the growth of velvet bean under water deficit conditions of two different strains of PGPR with ACCd (1-Aminocyclopropane-1-Carboxylate deaminase) activity isolated from rainfed farming system. We compared uninoculated and inoculated plants with PGPR to assess: a) photosynthetic performance and biomass; b) ACC content and ethylene emission from leaves and roots; c) leaf isoprene emission. Our results provided evidence that under drought conditions inoculation with PGPR containing the ACCd enzyme could improve plant growth compared to untreated plants. Ethylene emission from roots and leaves of inoculated velvet bean plants was significantly lower than uninoculated plants. Moreover, isoprene emission increased with drought stress progression and was higher in inoculated plants compared to uninoculated counterparts. These findings clearly illustrate that selected PGPR strains isolated from rainfed areas could be highly effective in promoting plant growth under drought conditions by decreasing ACC and ethylene levels in plants.

Drought response of Mucuna pruriens (L.) DC. inoculated with ACC deaminase and IAA producing rhizobacteria

PubMed Central

Khalid, Azeem; Raio, Aida; Emiliani, Giovanni; De Carlo, Anna; Mahmood, Tariq

2018-01-01

Drought is one of the major constraints limiting agricultural production worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Limited water availability causes significant effects to plant growth and physiology. Plants have evolved different traits to mitigate the stress imposed by drought. The presence of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) could play an important role in improving plant performances and productivity under drought. These beneficial microorganisms colonize the rhizosphere of plants and increase drought tolerance by lowering ethylene formation. In the present study, we demonstrate the potential to improve the growth of velvet bean under water deficit conditions of two different strains of PGPR with ACCd (1-Aminocyclopropane-1-Carboxylate deaminase) activity isolated from rainfed farming system. We compared uninoculated and inoculated plants with PGPR to assess: a) photosynthetic performance and biomass; b) ACC content and ethylene emission from leaves and roots; c) leaf isoprene emission. Our results provided evidence that under drought conditions inoculation with PGPR containing the ACCd enzyme could improve plant growth compared to untreated plants. Ethylene emission from roots and leaves of inoculated velvet bean plants was significantly lower than uninoculated plants. Moreover, isoprene emission increased with drought stress progression and was higher in inoculated plants compared to uninoculated counterparts. These findings clearly illustrate that selected PGPR strains isolated from rainfed areas could be highly effective in promoting plant growth under drought conditions by decreasing ACC and ethylene levels in plants. PMID:29447189

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

Advancing preparedness and response to drought and wildfires through North American transboudary collaboration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The economic, environmental, and social impacts of climate extremes across North America are significant. Drought in particular is one of the costliest and most prevalent natural hazards, and the impacts from drought are not constrained by any nation's borders. Coordination and communication between...

A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parry, Simon; Wilby, Robert L.; Prudhomme, Christel; Wood, Paul J.

2016-10-01

Drought termination can be associated with dramatic transitions from drought to flooding. Greater attention may be given to these newsworthy and memorable events, but drought terminations that proceed gradually also pose challenges for water resource managers. This paper defines drought termination as a distinctive phase of the event. Using observed river flow records for 52 UK catchments, a more systematic and objective approach for detecting drought terminations is demonstrated. The parameters of the approach are informed by a sensitivity analysis that ensures a focus on terminations of multi-season to multi-year droughts. The resulting inventory of 467 drought terminations provides an unprecedented historical perspective on this phenomenon in the UK. Nationally and regionally coherent drought termination events are identifiable, although their characteristics vary both between and within major episodes. Contrasting drought termination events in 1995-1998 and 2009-2012 are examined in greater depth. The data are also used to assess potential linkages between metrics of drought termination and catchment properties. The duration of drought termination is moderately negatively correlated with elevation (rs = -0.47) and catchment average rainfall (rs = -0.42), suggesting that wetter catchments in upland areas of the UK tend to experience shorter drought terminations. More urbanized catchments tend to have gradual drought terminations (contrary to expectations of flashy hydrological response in such areas), although this may also reflect the type of catchments typical of lowland England. Significant correlations are found between the duration of the drought development phase and both the duration (rs = -0.29) and rate (rs = 0.28) of drought termination. This suggests that prolonged drought development phases tend to be followed by shorter and more abrupt drought terminations. The inventory helps to place individual events within a long-term context. The drought

Drought impacts on ecosystem functions of the U.S. National Forests and Grasslands: Part I evaluation of a water and carbon balance model

Treesearch

Shanlei Sun; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; Jingfeng Xiao; Yang Zhang

2015-01-01

Understanding and quantitatively evaluating the regional impacts of climate change and variability (e.g., droughts) on forest ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield, evapotranspiration, and productivity) and services (e.g., fresh water supply and carbon sequestration) is of great importance for developing climate change adaptation strategies for National Forests and...

Dynamic equilibrium strategy for drought emergency temporary water transfer and allocation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Ma, Ning; Lv, Chengwei

2016-08-01

Efficient water transfer and allocation are critical for disaster mitigation in drought emergencies. This is especially important when the different interests of the multiple decision makers and the fluctuating water resource supply and demand simultaneously cause space and time conflicts. To achieve more effective and efficient water transfers and allocations, this paper proposes a novel optimization method with an integrated bi-level structure and a dynamic strategy, in which the bi-level structure works to deal with space dimension conflicts in drought emergencies, and the dynamic strategy is used to deal with time dimension conflicts. Combining these two optimization methods, however, makes calculation complex, so an integrated interactive fuzzy program and a PSO-POA are combined to develop a hybrid-heuristic algorithm. The successful application of the proposed model in a real world case region demonstrates its practicality and efficiency. Dynamic cooperation between multiple reservoirs under the coordination of a global regulator reflects the model's efficiency and effectiveness in drought emergency water transfer and allocation, especially in a fluctuating environment. On this basis, some corresponding management recommendations are proposed to improve practical operations.

AVHRR-based drought-observing system for monitoring the environment and socioeconomic activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogan, F.

From all natural disaster, drought is the least understandable and the most damaging environmental phenomenon. Although in pre-satellite era, climate data were used for drought monitoring, drought specifics created problems in early drought detection start/end, monitoring its expansion/contraction, intensity and area coverage and the most important, timely estimation of the impacts on the environment and socioeconomic activities. The latest prevented to take prompt measures in mitigating negative consequences of drought for the society. Advances in remote sensing of the past ten years, contributed to the development of comprehensive drought monitoring system and numerous applications, which helped to make decisions for monitoring the environment and predicting sustainable socioeconomic activities. This paper discusses satellite-based land-surface observing system, which provides wells of information used for monitoring such unusual natural disaster as drought. This system was developed from the observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) flown on NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellites. The AVHRR data were packed into the Global Vegetation Index (GVI) product, which have served the global community since 1981. The GVI provided reflectances and indices (4 km spacial resolution) every seven days for each 16 km map cell between 75EN and 55ES covering all land ecosystems. The data includes raw and calibrated radiances in the visible, near infrared and infrared spectral bands, processed (with eliminated high frequency noise) radiances, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), 20-year climatology, vegetation condition indices and also products, such as vegetation health, drought, vegetation fraction, fire risk etc. In the past ten years, users around the world used this information addressing different issues of drought impacts on socioeconomic activities and responded positively to real time drought information place regularly on the

Application of NARR-based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonge, C. J.; Cosgrove, B. A.

2008-05-01

Government estimates indicate that droughts cause billions of dollars of damage to agricultural interests each year. More effective identification of droughts would directly benefit decision makers, and would allow for the more efficient allocation of resources that might mitigate the event. Land data assimilation systems, with their high quality representations of soil moisture, present an ideal platform for drought monitoring, and offer many advantages over traditional modeling systems. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) covers the NLDAS domain and provides all fields necessary to force the NLDAS for 27 years. This presents an ideal opportunity to combine NARR and NLDAS resources into an effective real-time drought monitor. Toward this end, our project seeks to validate and explore the NARR's suitability as a base for drought monitoring applications - both in terms of data set length and accuracy. Along the same lines, the project will examine the impact of the use of different (longer) LDAS model climatologies on drought monitoring, and will explore the advantages of ensemble simulations versus single model simulations in drought monitoring activities. We also plan to produce a NARR- and observation-based high quality 27 year, 1/8th degree, 3-hourly, land surface and meteorological forcing data sets. An investigation of the best way to force an LDAS-type system will also be made, with traditional NLDAS and NLDASE forcing options explored. This presentation will focus on an overview of the drought monitoring project, and will include a summary of recent progress. Developments include the generation of forcing data sets, ensemble LSM output, and production of model-based drought indices over the entire NLDAS domain. Project forcing files use 32km NARR model output as a data backbone, and include observed precipitation (blended CPC gauge, PRISM gauge, Stage II, HPD, and CMORPH) and a GOES-based bias correction of downward solar

Impacts of droughts on carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. B.; Zhou, Y. L.; Ju, W. M.; Wang, S. Q.; Wu, X. C.; He, M. Z.

2013-11-01

In recent years, droughts have frequently hit China's terrestrial ecosystems. How these droughts affected carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems is still unclear. In this study, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, driven by remotely sensed vegetation parameters, was employed to assess the effects of droughts on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems in China for the period from 2000 to 2011. Different categories of droughts, as indicated by a standard precipitation index (SPI), extensively hit terrestrial ecosystems in China, particularly in 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011. The national total NEP exhibited a slight decline of -11.3 Tg C yr-2 during the study period, mainly due to large reductions of NEP in typical drought-hit years 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011, ranging from 61.1 Tg C yr-1 to 168.8 Tg C yr-1. National and regional total NEP anomalies were correlated with corresponding annual mean SPI, especially in Northwest China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China. In drought years, the reductions of NEP might be caused by a larger decrease in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in respiration (RE) (2001 and 2011), a decrease in GPP and an increase in RE (2009), or a larger increase in RE than in GPP (2006). Droughts had lagged effects of up to 3-6 months on NEP due to different reactions of GPP and RE to droughts. In east humid and warm parts of China, droughts have predominant and short-term lagged influences on NEP. In western cold and arid regions, the effects of droughts on NEP were relatively weaker and might last for a longer period of time.

Droughts in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Nancy L.; Stamey, Timothy C.

2000-01-01

Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout the State. The word 'drought' has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation - even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow. Droughts in Georgia have severely affected municipal and industrial water supplies, agriculture, stream water quality, recreation at major reservoirs, hydropower generation, navigation, and forest resources. In Georgia, droughts have been documented at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations since the 1890's. From 1910 to 1940, about 20 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Since the early 1950's through the late 1980's, about 100 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Currently (2000), the USGS streamflow gaging network consists of more than 135 continuous-recording gages. Ground-water levels are currently monitored at 165 wells equipped with continuous recorders.

8 CFR 1280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 1280.5... IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS IMPOSITION AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 1280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or remission of a fine is authorized by the Immigration and Nationality Act...

8 CFR 1280.5 - Mitigation or remission of fines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Mitigation or remission of fines. 1280.5... IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS IMPOSITION AND COLLECTION OF FINES § 1280.5 Mitigation or remission of fines. In any case in which mitigation or remission of a fine is authorized by the Immigration and Nationality Act...

Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko

2012-11-01

Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

New Science Applications Within the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.; Forson, C. K.; Horrillo, J. J.; Nicolsky, D.

2017-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a collaborative State and Federal program which supports consistent and cost effective tsunami preparedness and mitigation activities at a community level. The NTHMP is developing a new five-year Strategic Plan based on the 2017 Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act as well as recommendations the 2017 NTHMP External Review Panel. Many NTHMP activities are based on the best available scientific methods through the NTHMP Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS). The primary activities for the MMS member States are to characterize significant tsunami sources, numerically model those sources, and create tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning. This work remains a focus for many unmapped coastlines. With the lessons learned from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis, where both immediate risks and long-term recovery issues where recognized, the NTHMP MMS is expanding efforts into other areas that address community resilience. Tsunami evacuation modeling based on both pedestrian and vehicular modes of transportation are being developed by NTHMP States. Products include tools for the public to create personal evacuation maps. New tsunami response planning tools are being developed for both maritime and coastal communities. Maritime planning includes tsunami current-hazard maps for in-harbor and offshore response activities. Multi-tiered tsunami evacuation plans are being developed in some states to address local- versus distant-source tsunamis, as well as real-time evacuation plans, or "playbooks," for distant-source tsunamis forecasted to be less than the worst-case flood event. Products to assist community mitigation and recovery are being developed at a State level. Harbor Improvement Reports, which evaluate the impacts of currents, sediment, and debris on harbor infrastructure, include direct mitigation activities for Local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Building code updates in the

Assessment of Drought Severity Using Normal Precipitation Index (Case Study: Sistan and Baluchistan Province)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahimi, D.; Movahedi, S.

2009-04-01

In the last decades, water crisis is one of the most important critical phenomenons in the environment planning and human society's management which affecting on development aspects in the international, national and regional levels. In this research, have been considered the Drought as the main parameter in water rare serious. For drought assessment, can treat the different methods, such as statistical model, meteorological and hydrological methods. In this research, have been used the Normal Precipitation index to meteorological analysis of drought severity in Sistan and Baluchistan province with high drought severity during recent years. According to the obtained result, the annual precipitation of studied area was between 36 to 52 percent more than mean precipitation of province. 10%-23 percent of precipitation amount involved the drought threshold border, 3%-13 percent of precipitations contain the weakness drought, 6.7% -23 percent were considered for moderate drought, 6%-20 percent involved the severe drought and ultimately, 6.7% to 23 percent of precipitations were considered as very severe drought. Keywords: Drought, Normal index, precipitation, Sistan and Baluchistan

The Value of Information from a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Y.; Bernknopf, R.; Macauley, M.; Brookshire, D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Rodell, M.

2013-12-01

Water storage anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS) have been used to enhance the information contained in drought indicators. The potential value of this information is to inform local and regional decisions to improve economic welfare in the face of drought. Based on a characterization of current drought evaluations, a modeling framework has been structured to analyze the contributed value of the Earth observations in the assessment of the onset and duration of droughts and their regional impacts. The analysis focuses on (1) characterizing how GRACE-DAS provides Earth observation information for a drought warning, (2) assessing how a GRACE-DAS-enhanced U.S. Drought Monitor would improve economic outcomes in a region, and (3) applying this enhancement process in a decision framework to illustrate the potential role of GRACE data products in a recent drought and response scenario for a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. The VOI analysis quantifies the relative contribution of enhanced understanding and communication of the societal benefits associated with GRACE Earth observation science. Our emphasis is to illustrate the role of an enhanced National Integrated Drought Information System outlook on three key societal outcomes: effects on particular economic sectors, changes in land management decisions, and reductions in damages to ecosystem services.

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought.

PubMed

Yi, Koong; Dragoni, Danilo; Phillips, Richard P; Roman, D Tyler; Novick, Kimberly A

2017-10-01

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of isohydric to anisohydric behavior to determine the responses of three canopy-dominant species to drought. We used a collection of leaf-level gas exchange, tree-level sap flux and stand-level eddy covariance data collected in south-central Indiana from 2011 to 2013, which included an unusually severe drought in the summer of 2012. Our goal was to assess how patterns in the radial profile of sap flux and reliance on hydraulic capacitance differed among species of contrasting water-use strategies. In isohydric species, which included sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), we found that the sap flux in the outer xylem experienced dramatic declines during drought, but sap flux at inner xylem was buffered from reductions in water availability. In contrast, for anisohydric oak species (Quercus alba L. and Quercus rubra L.), we observed relatively smaller variations in sap flux during drought in both inner and outer xylem, and higher nighttime refilling when compared with isohydric species. This reliance on nocturnal refilling, which occurred coincident with a decoupling between leaf- and tree-level water-use dynamics, suggests that anisohydric species may benefit from a reliance on hydraulic capacitance to mitigate the risk of hydraulic failure associated with maintaining high transpiration rates during drought. In the case of both isohydric and anisohydric species, our work demonstrates that failure to account for shifts in the radial profile of sap flux during drought could introduce substantial bias in estimates of tree water use during both drought and non-drought

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

Linking regional initiatives to improve predictions of drought impacts on living marine resources in the U.S. Southeast: Apalachicola Bay oyster fishery as a potential test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petes, L.; McNutt, C.; Burkett, V.; Jones, S.

2009-12-01

In 2007, the U.S. Southeast experienced one of the worst droughts on record. Since 1970, moderate-to-severe droughts in the Southeast have increased by 12-14% and annual average temperature has risen over 1°C. Several global climate models also project warming across the Southeast and an increased rate of warming through the end of the century. The Southeast has also undergone unprecedented growth, with some counties of Florida and Georgia populations increasing by over 500% in the last several decades, further increasing the demand for water resources during times of drought. Two regional efforts are currently underway to help inform constituents about adaptation to climate variability and change in the Southeast region. The first effort is the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), led by NOAA. NIDIS serves as an early warning system for drought through the consolidation of physical/hydrological and socioeconomic impact data, engages those affected by drought, integrates observing networks, and delivers decision-support tools to end-users. The second effort is the USGS’ National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, which will facilitate linking global and regional climate models to ecological and biological responses at spatial and temporal resolutions that will inform resource management decisions. Both efforts will be operating in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. During the 2007 drought, one of the most publicized impacts was on the oyster fishery in Apalachicola Bay. Reduced regional precipitation along with associated higher demands for water uses in the ACF reduced downstream flow into the Bay, producing harmful effects on the oyster fishery and associated ecosystem. Changes in estuarine salinity resulting from alterations in streamflow can lead to impacts on species abundance and community composition. Drought can also lead to changes in predator-prey interactions, as marine predators typically move into

Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

2017-12-01

As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems.

PubMed

Hoover, David L; Duniway, Michael C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-12-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt

2018-01-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

Groundwater Drought and Recovery: a Case Study from the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peach, D.; McKenzie, A. A.; Bloomfield, J.

2012-12-01

experienced accumulated rainfall deficiencies over 24 months or more. Such rainfall deficiencies could, on aver¬age, only be expected around once every 20 to 30 years. The rainfall deficiencies were disproportionately concentrated in the winter/spring periods leading to significant reductions in groundwater recharge over the winters of 2010-11 and particularly 2011-12. At it's height in March 2012 groundwater levels were at historically low levels with estimated overall storage in the Chalk aquifer, the principal aquifer in the UK, lower than at the same time in 1976, the previous benchmark drought for the UK. Natural base levels had been reached or closely approached at a number of index wells early in the hydrometric year and groundwater recession was expected to continue with the prospect of overall groundwater resources being comparable with, or below, the lowest in the last 100 years by the autumn of 2012. However, a significant change in weather in spring 2012 led to three months (April to June) of exceptional rainfall, mitigating the drought and leading to anomalous groundwater recharge at a time of year when soil moisture deficits are normally significant.

Improved tolerance to post-anthesis drought stress by pre-drought priming at vegetative stages in drought-tolerant and -sensitive wheat cultivars.

PubMed

Abid, Muhammad; Tian, Zhongwei; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Liu, Yang; Cui, Yakun; Zahoor, Rizwan; Jiang, Dong; Dai, Tingbo

2016-09-01

Wheat crop endures a considerable penalty of yield reduction to escape the drought events during post-anthesis period. Drought priming under a pre-drought stress can enhance the crop potential to tolerate the subsequent drought stress by triggering a faster and stronger defense mechanism. Towards these understandings, a set of controlled moderate drought stress at 55-60% field capacity (FC) was developed to prime the plants of two wheat cultivars namely Luhan-7 (drought tolerant) and Yangmai-16 (drought sensitive) during tillering (Feekes 2 stage) and jointing (Feekes 6 stage), respectively. The comparative response of primed and non-primed plants, cultivars and priming stages was evaluated by applying a subsequent severe drought stress at 7 days after anthesis. The results showed that primed plants of both cultivars showed higher potential to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress through improved leaf water potential, more chlorophyll, and ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase contents, enhanced photosynthesis, better photoprotection and efficient enzymatic antioxidant system leading to less yield reductions. The primed plants of Luhan-7 showed higher capability to adapt the drought stress events than Yangmai-16. The positive effects of drought priming to sustain higher grain yield were pronounced in plants primed at tillering than those primed at jointing. In consequence, upregulated functioning of photosynthetic apparatus and efficient enzymatic antioxidant activities in primed plants indicated their superior potential to alleviate a subsequently occurring drought stress, which contributed to lower yield reductions than non-primed plants. However, genotypic and priming stages differences in response to drought stress also contributed to affect the capability of primed plants to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress conditions in wheat. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Multi-year strongest California drought from 500 m SNPP/VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, W.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

Starting in 2006, the western United States was affected by a 10-year long mega-drought. Among 17 western states, California was the most severely drought-affected, especially in 2012-2015, when the area of stronger than moderate vegetation stress reached 70%. This drought had considerable impacts on California's environmental, economy and society. Currently, drought in the USA is monitored by the US Drought Monitor (USDM), which estimates drought area and intensity on an area with an effective resolution of around 30-by-30 km. California produces more than 90% of US fruits, vegetables, berries and nuts, which are grown on relatively small areas (200-500 acres, or 0.5 to 2 km²). Since most of these crops are irrigated, it is important to estimate crop conditions on the area comparable to the size of the planted crop. This paper demonstrates how the new 0.5-by-0.5 km Vegetation health (VH) technology (VH-500) developed from the data collected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite launched in 2011, monitors the current mega-drought in California, distinguishing drought-affected area with and without irrigation and estimating drought start/end, intensity, duration and impacts. The VH-500 method and data showed that California's vegetation was under medium-to-exceptional stress, especially in 2013 and 2014. However, in the middle of such intensive stress, in some of the 500-m areas of the Central Valley where principal crops are growing, vegetation experienced favorable conditions because some of these crops were irrigated. The VH-500 drought estimates showed general similarities with the assessed economic drought impacts (crop fallowing, employment loss and crop revenue change) in California.

Hydrological extremes in the media: The 2015 drought event in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zink, Matthias; Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Mai, Juliane; Schäfer, David; Marx, Andreas

2017-04-01

The 2003 drought event had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses in Germany on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. In 2015, another drought event impacted Germany which had impacts on inland navigation, forest fire risk and agriculture among others. Due to this drought event, corn yield reduced by 22% compared to the preceding 5 years. This drought event was tracked by the 2014 implemented German Drought Monitor, a near real-time, online soil water monitoring platform (Zink et al., 2016). This platform uses an high resolution, operational modeling system which delivers easy to understand maps of soil drought conditions that are published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. During the 2015 event, the German Drought Monitor was used by several regional to national newspapers as well as by television to inform the public about the recent status of soil moisture conditions. Next to publishing the drought maps, we were asked to comment the drought development and especially the severity of the ongoing drought event. On the one hand, this gave us the opportunity to inform the public about different types and the characterization of droughts. On the other hand, some journalists just tried to invoke statements such as "this is the most severe drought event ever recorded" to get a good headline. Further the secondmost pressing question of the journalists was, if the current event could be directly attributed to climate change. A clear answer to this question could not be given since the drought monitor is based on only a 65 year period of data. Depending on the media company, different depths of information and knowledge was finally transferred to the newsletter article and

Water conservation benefits of urban heat mitigation: can cooling strategies reduce water consumption in California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Jones, A. D.

2017-12-01

Urban areas are at the forefront of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts given their high concentration of people, industry, and infrastructure. Many cities globally are seeking strategies to counter the consequences of both a hotter and drier climate. While urban heat mitigation strategies have been shown to have beneficial effects on health, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, their implications for water conservation have not been widely examined. Here we show that broad implementation of cool roofs, an urban heat mitigation strategy, not only results in significant cooling of air temperature, but also meaningfully decreases outdoor water consumption by reducing evaporative and irrigation water demands. Based on a suite of satellite-supported, multiyear regional climate simulations, we find that cool roof adoption has the potential to reduce outdoor water consumption across the major metropolitan areas in California by up to 9%. Irrigation water savings per capita, induced by cool roofs, range from 1.8 to 15.4 gallons per day across 18 counties examined. Total water savings in Los Angeles county alone is about 83 million gallons per day. While this effect is robust across the 15 years examined (2001-2015), including both drought and non-drought years, we find that cool roofs are most effective during the hottest days of the year, indicating that they could play an even greater role in reducing outdoor water use in a hotter future climate. We further show that this synergistic relationship between heat mitigation and water conservation is asymmetrical - policies that encourage direct reductions in irrigation water use can lead to substantial regional warming, potentially conflicting with heat mitigation efforts designed to counter the effects of the projected warming climate.

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River basin (West Africa): a combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, Vasileios; Farinosi, Fabio; Dondeynaz, Celine; Ameztoy, Iban; Pastori, Marco; Marletta, Luca; Ali, Abdou; Carmona Moreno, Cesar

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.

Strategies for flood hazard adaptation in drought affected regions of Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleupner, Christine

2010-05-01

The development and management of water resources in Afghanistan are critically important for the economic development of the country. But Afghanistan presents a number of specific challenges in terms of water resource management and climate change impact assessment. Political instability and war has caused widespread devastation, insecurity, displacement, poverty and severe environmental degradation. Recent droughts have led to the collapse of many livelihoods, and poor national security restricts structured fieldwork. The recent restructuring and rebuilding of the state can be seen as opportunity to integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures into national, regional, and local planning. Governmental organizations are responsible to integrate climate change related issues and pro-active planning processes in water management and environmental considerations into relevant legislations, ministry and sector strategies. Integrated water resource management has been practically nonexistent during the last decades and consideration of climate change impacts are widely ignored in regional planning processes. However, flooding, landslides, drought, and extreme heat and freezing weather are already threatening the population. Climate models suggest that Afghanistan will be confronted by an increase of these events. Desertification and land degradation but also floods due to untimely rainfall are expected to broaden. Studies show that the impact of increasingly frequent flash floods may be amplified due to more rapid spring snow melt as a result of higher temperatures, combined with the downstream effects of land degradation, loss of vegetative cover and land mismanagement. It is further exacerbated by drought, which has the effect of hardening soils and reducing their permeability. In 2007 heavy floods already destroyed fields and harvests, killed livestock, damaged buildings, and claimed many lives. The intensified climatic conditions in Afghanistan will

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, David L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

Physiological and transcriptional responses of Catalpa bungei to drought stress under sufficient- and deficient-nitrogen conditions.

PubMed

Shi, Huili; Ma, Wenjun; Song, Junyu; Lu, Mei; Rahman, Siddiq Ur; Bui, Thi Tuyet Xuan; Vu, Dinh Duy; Zheng, Huifang; Wang, Junhui; Zhang, Yi

2017-11-01

Many semi-arid ecosystems are simultaneously limited by soil water and nitrogen (N). We conducted a greenhouse experiment to address how N availability impacts drought-resistant traits of Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey at the physiological and molecular level. A factorial design was used, consisting of sufficient-N and deficient-N combined with moderate drought and well-watered conditions. Seedling biomass and major root parameters were significantly suppressed by drought under the deficient-N condition, whereas N application mitigated the inhibiting effects of drought on root growth, particularly that of fine roots with a diameter <0.2 mm. Intrinsic water-use efficiency was promoted by N addition under both water conditions, whereas stable carbon isotope compositions (δ13C) was promoted by N addition only under the well-watered condition. Nitrogen application positively impacted drought adaptive responses including osmotic adjustment and homeostasis of reactive oxygen species, the content of free proline, soluble sugar and superoxide dismutase activity: all were increased upon drought under sufficient-N conditions but not under deficient-N conditions. The extent of abscisic acid (ABA) inducement upon drought was elevated by N application. Furthermore, an N-dependent crosstalk between ABA, jasmonic acid and indole acetic acid at the biosynthesis level contributed to better drought acclimation. Moreover, the transcriptional level of most genes responsible for the ABA signal transduction pathway, and genes encoding the antioxidant enzymes and plasma membrane intrinsic proteins, are elevated upon drought only under sufficient-N addition. These observations confirmed at the molecular level that major adaptive responses to drought are dependent on sufficient N nutrition. Although N uptake was decreased under drought, N-use efficiency and transcription of most genes encoding N metabolism enzymes were elevated, demonstrating that active N metabolism positively contributed

CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine

2017-04-01

Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

Predictive Skill of Meteorological Drought Based on Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts: A Real-Time Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L. C.; Mo, K. C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, J.

2014-12-01

Drought prediction from monthly to seasonal time scales is of critical importance to disaster mitigation, agricultural planning, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Starting in December 2012, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been providing operational Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Outlooks using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts, to support CPC's monthly drought outlooks and briefing activities. The current NMME system consists of six model forecasts from U.S. and Canada modeling centers, including the CFSv2, CM2.1, GEOS-5, CCSM3.0, CanCM3, and CanCM4 models. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the predictive skill of meteorological drought using real-time NMME forecasts for the period from May 2012 to May 2014. The ensemble SPI forecasts are the equally weighted mean of the six model forecasts. Two performance measures, the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square errors against the observations, are used to evaluate forecast skill.Similar to the assessment based on NMME retrospective forecasts, predictive skill of monthly-mean precipitation (P) forecasts is generally low after the second month and errors vary among models. Although P forecast skill is not large, SPI predictive skill is high and the differences among models are small. The skill mainly comes from the P observations appended to the model forecasts. This factor also contributes to the similarity of SPI prediction among the six models. Still, NMME SPI ensemble forecasts have higher skill than those based on individual models or persistence, and the 6-month SPI forecasts are skillful out to four months. The three major drought events occurred during the 2012-2014 period, the 2012 Central Great Plains drought, the 2013 Upper Midwest flash drought, and 2013-2014 California drought, are used as examples to illustrate the system's strength and limitations. For precipitation-driven drought events, such as the 2012 Central Great Plains drought

Genetic variation, phenotypic stability, and repeatability of drought response in European larch throughout 50 years in a common garden experiment

PubMed Central

George, Jan-Peter; Grabner, Michael; Karanitsch-Ackerl, Sandra; Mayer, Konrad; Weißenbacher, Lambert; Schueler, Silvio

2017-01-01

Abstract Assessing intra-specific variation in drought stress response is required to mitigate the consequences of climate change on forest ecosystems. Previous studies suggest that European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), an important European conifer in mountainous and alpine forests, is highly vulnerable to drought. In light of this, we estimated the genetic variation in drought sensitivity and its degree of genetic determination in a 50-year-old common garden experiment in the drought-prone northeastern Austria. Tree ring data from larch provenances originating from across the species' natural range were used to estimate the drought reaction in four consecutive drought events (1977, 1981, 1990–1994, and 2003) with extremely low standardized precipitation- and evapotranspiration-index values that affected growth in all provenances. We found significant differences among provenances across the four drought periods for the trees’ capacity to withstand drought (resistance) and for their capacity to reach pre-drought growth levels after drought (resilience). Provenances from the species' northern distribution limit in the Polish lowlands were found to be more drought resistant and showed higher stability across all drought periods than provenances from mountainous habitats at the southern fringe. The degree of genetic determination, as estimated by the repeatability, ranged up to 0.39, but significantly differed among provenances, indicating varying degrees of natural selection at the provenance origin. Generally, the relationship between the provenances’ source climate and drought behavior was weak, suggesting that the contrasting patterns of drought response are a result of both genetic divergence out of different refugial lineages and local adaptation to summer or winter drought conditions. Our analysis suggests that European larch posseses high genetic variation among and within provenances that can be used for assisted migration and breeding programs. PMID

Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

vegetation and hydro-meteorological drought indices for the assessment of cereal yield. Moreover, the present study will provide some guidance on user's decision making process in agricultural practices in the IP, assisting farmers in deciding whether to purchase crop insurance. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMDROFLOOD (WaterJPI/0004/2014). Ana Russo thanks FCT for granted support (SFRH/BPD/99757/2014). Andreia Ribeiro also thanks FCT for grant PD/BD/114481/2016.

Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

Saltwater intrusion coupled with drought accelerates carbon loss from a brackish coastal wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Troxler, T.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands, such as the Everglades, are critical ecosystems for blue carbon (C) storage, yet this storage capacity is vulnerable to environmental change, such as saltwater intrusion and altered hydrology. Saltwater intrusion can stress vegetation and bring new metabolites for microbial respiration, thereby altering the C cycle. Drought can reduce the depth of water covering the wetland soil, and, in extreme cases, lead to exposed soil surface. This increases oxygen levels, thus speeding up C decomposition and potentially leading to peat collapse. The combined effects of both saltwater intrusion and drought on coastal marshes, however, are still uncertain, but recent evidence suggests that saltwater intrusion accelerates C loss from wetlands when coupled with drought. Our objective was to determine the change in CO2 flux, decomposition, root and shoot production, and elevation in a brackish water marsh under conditions of drought and elevated salinity. During the onset of drought, soil CO2 efflux increased by 124% and 237% in the ambient and elevated salinity treatments, respectively, compared to the control. Within one month, elevated salinity decreased net ecosystem production (NEP) by 40%, while after 6 months it had decreased by 85%. During the onset of the drought, there was no difference in NEP with ambient salinity between the inundated and exposed monoliths (-3.4 ± 0.8 vs. -4.2 ± 2.0 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1, respectively). However, drought conditions in the elevated salinity treatment resulted in more CO2 release in the exposed monoliths than the inundated monoliths (1.5 ± 0.4 vs. -0.5 ± 0.3 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1, respectively). Elevation change collected at the end of the experiment will allow us to test if elevated salinity combined with drought contributes to peat collapse, and what mechanisms of ecosystem C cycling has the greatest influence. While the restoration of water flows to the southern Everglades is hypothesized to mitigate the periods of

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2012-01-01

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.

Spatiotemporal variability and assessment of drought in the Wei River basin of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Siyang; Zuo, Depeng; Xu, Zongxue; Han, Xianming; Gao, Xiaoxi

2018-06-01

The temporal and spatial variations of drought in the Wei River basin (WRB) were investigated by calculating the meteorological drought Index (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) and the agricultural drought index (Vegetation Health Index, VHI). Monthly precipitation and air temperature were from 22 meteorological stations over the region from 1960 to 2015. Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and 8-days Land Surface Temperature (LST) were provided from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the period 2000-2015 were also adopted. The results showed that the drought initially increased and then decreased, reaching at the maximum value in 1990s. The spatial pattern of meteorological drought showed that the drought in northern WRB was heavier than that in southern WRB before 1990s, after that, the situation had the opposite. By comparing the agricultural drought index (VHI) with crop yield, it was proved that VHI was applicable in the WRB and could well reflect the fluctuation of agricultural drought. The WRB suffered from serious agricultural drought in 2000, 2001, 2007 and 2008. Through analysis of the historical precipitation and temperature data, it was found that precipitation had a greater contribution to creating agricultural drought conditions than temperature in the Wei River basin.

Drought in West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Drought settled over West Africa's Ivory Coast region when wet season rains came late in 2007. Instead of beginning in February, the rainy season didn't start until March, and steady rains didn't start until late March, said the Famine Early Warning System Network. Though the rain had started to alleviate the drought, vegetation was still depressed in parts of Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) between March 22 and April 6, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured the data used to make this image. The image shows current vegetation conditions compared to average conditions recorded since 2000. Areas where plants are growing more slowly or more sparsely than average are brown, while areas where vegetation is denser than average are green. The brown tint that dominates the image indicates that plants through most of the country are more sparse than normal. Among the crops affected by the lack of rain was West Africa's cocoa crop. About 70 percent of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa, and Cote d'Ivoire is a top grower, said Reuters. Cocoa prices climbed as the crop fell short. Farmers called the drought the worst in living memory, Reuters said. The delay in rainfall also led to water shortages in parts of Cote d'Ivoire, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, T.; Haile, M.; Senay, G.; Wardlow, B.D.; Knutson, C.L.

2008-01-01

Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. ?? 2008 United Nations.

The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

Economic principles for resource allocation decisions at national level to mitigate the effects of disease in farm animal populations.

PubMed

Howe, K S; Häsler, B; Stärk, K D C

2013-01-01

This paper originated in a project to develop a practical, generic tool for the economic evaluation of surveillance for farm animal diseases at national level by a state veterinary service. Fundamental to that process is integration of epidemiological and economic perspectives. Using a generalized example of epidemic disease, we show that an epidemic curve maps into its economic equivalent, a disease mitigation function, that traces the relationship between value losses avoided and mitigation resources expended. Crucially, elementary economic principles show that mitigation, defined as loss reduction achieved by surveillance and intervention, must be explicitly conceptualized as a three-variable process, and the relative contributions of surveillance and intervention resources investigated with regard to the substitution possibilities between them. Modelling the resultant mitigation surfaces for different diseases should become a standard approach to animal health policy analysis for economic efficiency, a contribution to the evolving agenda for animal health economics research.

Land use alters the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

de Vries, Franciska T.; Liiri, Mira E.; Bjørnlund, Lisa; Bowker, Matthew A.; Christensen, Søren; Setälä, Heikki; Bardgett, Richard D.

2012-01-01

Soils deliver several ecosystem services including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are of central importance to climate mitigation and sustainable food production. Soil biota play an important role in carbon and nitrogen cycling, and, although the effects of land use on soil food webs are well documented the consequences for their resistance and resilience to climate change are not known. We compared the resistance and resilience to drought--which is predicted to increase under climate change of soil food webs of two common land-use systems: intensively managed wheat with a bacterial-based soil food web and extensively managed grassland with a fungal-based soil food web. We found that the fungal-based food web, and the processes of C and N loss it governs, of grassland soil was more resistant, although not resilient, and better able to adapt to drought than the bacterial-based food web of wheat soil. Structural equation modelling revealed that fungal-based soil food webs and greater microbial evenness mitigated C and N loss. Our findings show that land use strongly affects the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to climate change, and that extensively managed grassland promotes more resistant, and adaptable, fungal-based soil food webs.

Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

2014-05-01

The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

RISA progress in the development of drought indicators to support decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Simpson, C.

2015-12-01

Communities around the country are increasingly recognizing the need to plan for water shortages and long-term drought. To build preparedness and help communities manage risk, researchers funded by NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Coping with Drought initiative through the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program are working to better understand these impacts across the country and work with communities and resource managers to develop adaptation strategies that meet their needs. The Coping with Drought initiative supports research involving the use of climate predictions and forecast information in decision-making across a range of sectors including agriculture, natural and water resources management, and public health. As a component of this initiative, the RISA program supported research and engagement to develop indicators of drought designed to be of most use to managers and planners grappling with severe and in some cases ongoing drought in their regions. Indicators are being developed for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas, water management in California, and native communities in Arizona. For instance, the California Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) RISA developed a percentile-based indicator system for analyzing historic droughts and characterizing the ongoing California drought. And in the Southwest, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) RISA has been working with the Hopi community on drought monitoring and planning to develop the first-ever Hopi Quarterly Drought Status Report which integrates scientific and local knowledge about drought. This presentation will discuss RISA's role in developing drought indicators based on engagement with decision makers and how this work fits into the larger role that RISAs are playing in the development of the NIDIS Regional Drought Early Warning Systems across the U.S.

Climate Change and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The Adaptation Challenge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fowler, Kimberly M.; Hjeresen, Dennis; Silverman, Josh

2015-02-01

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been adapting to climate change related impacts that have been occurring on decadal time scales. The region where LANL is located has been subject to a cascade of climate related impacts: drought, devastating wildfires, and historic flooding events. Instead of buckling under the pressure, LANL and the surrounding communities have integrated climate change mitigation strategies into their daily operations and long-term plans by increasing coordination and communication between the Federal, State, and local agencies in the region, identifying and aggressively managing forested areas in need of near-term attention, addressing flood control and retentionmore » issues, and more.« less

Profiling Fallow Land in California's Drought Conditions Using the Cropland Data Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakzeski, A.

2014-12-01

Drought conditions caused by soaring temperatures and decreasing amounts of precipitation continue to plague the particularly heavily cultivated areas of California. Research efforts from state and federal government stakeholders are ongoing to track, quantify, and forecast the impact of these changing conditions. For the State of California, beginning in 2007, the US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) annually began using remote sensing techniques to produce a geospatial agricultural land cover classification data product called the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). The CDL is produced using current farmer reported data in conjunction with satellite imagery collected during the summer growing season each year to identify the type and location of multiple categories of land cover across the state. Tracking the impact of drought conditions on agriculture in California can be done by analyzing the land cover category for fallow and idle agricultural land within the CDL. Using multiple years of CDLs, profiles are created to document the different characteristics of fallow land across the agricultural landscape including NDVI measurements, average field sizes, and total acreage amounts in each county. The fallow land profiles also detail the increasing amount of fallow land appearing in what was historically agricultural intensive areas, as well as what types of land cover are being replaced with fallow land instead of being cultivated during the growing season. Understanding the dynamic changes of fallowing land in each county helps researchers quantify the agricultural impact and assist with mitigation efforts caused by the water shortages.

Fragmentation, topography, and forest age modulate impacts of drought on a tropical forested landscape in eastern Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uriarte, M.; Schwartz, N.; Budsock, A.

2017-12-01

Naturally regenerating second-growth forests account for ca. 50% of tropical forest cover and provide key ecosystem services. Understanding climate impacts on these ecosystems is critical for developing effective mitigation programs. Differences in environmental conditions and landscape context from old-growth forests may exacerbate climate impacts on second-growth stands. Nearly 70% of forest regeneration is occurring in hilly, upland, or mountain regions; a large proportion of second-growth forests are also fragmented. The effects of drought at the landscape scale, however, and the factors that modulate landscape heterogeneity in drought impacts remain understudied. Heterogeneity in soil moisture, light, and temperature in fragmented, topographically complex landscapes is likely to influence climate impacts on these forests. We examine impacts of a severe drought in 2015 on a forested landscape in Puerto Rico using two anomalies in vegetation indices. The study landscape is fragmented and topographically complex and includes old- and second-growth forests. We consider how topography (slope, aspect), fragmentation (distance to forest edge, patch size), and forest age (old- vs second-growth) modulate landscape heterogeneity of drought impacts and recovery from drought. Drought impacts were more severe in second-growth forests than in old-growth stands. Both topography and forest fragmentation influences the magnitude of drought impacts. Forest growing in steep areas, south facing slopes, small patches, and closer to forest edges exhibited more marked responses to drought. Forest recovery from drought was greater in second-growth forests and south facing slopes but slower in small patches and closer to forest edges. These findings are congruent with studies of drought impacts on tree growth in the study region. Together these results demonstrate the need for a multi-scalar approach to the study of drought impacts on tropical forests.

Modeling Drought Impact Occurrence Based on Climatological Drought Indices for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Kohn, I.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.

2014-12-01

Meteorological drought indices are often assumed to accurately characterize the severity of a drought event; however, these indices do not necessarily reflect the likelihood or severity of a particular type of drought impact experienced on the ground. In previous research, this link between index and impact was often estimated based on thresholds found by experience, measured using composite indices with assumed weighting schemes, or defined based on very narrow impact measures, using either a narrow spatial extent or very specific impacts. This study expands on earlier work by demonstrating the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports to the climatological drought indices SPI and SPEI by logistic regression. The user-provided drought impact reports are based on the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII, www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/), a newly developed online database that allows both public report submission and querying the more than 4,000 reported impacts spanning 33 European countries. This new tool is used to quantify the link between meteorological drought indices and impacts focusing on four primary impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods for different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained best by 2-12 month anomalies, with 2-3 month anomalies found in predominantly rain-fed agricultural regions, and anomalies greater than 3 months related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industry impacts, related to hydropower and energy cooling water in these countries, respond to longer accumulated precipitation anomalies (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayers, Jessica M.; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

The value of linking mitigation and adaptation: a case study of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ayers, Jessica M; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using Satellite and Climate Model Data over Southwestern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai

Real-time monitoring and predicting drought development with several months in advance is of critical importance for drought risk adaptation and mitigation. In this paper, we present a drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over Southwest China (SW). The satellite precipitation data are used to force VIC model for near real-time estimate of land surface hydrologic conditions. As initialized with satellite-aided monitoring, the climate model-based forecast (CFSv2_VIC) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)-based forecast (ESP_VIC) are both performed and evaluated through their ability in reproducing the evolution of the 2009/2010 severe drought overmore » SW. The results show that the satellite-aided monitoring is able to provide reasonable estimate of forecast initial conditions (ICs) in a real-time manner. Both of CFSv2_VIC and ESP_VIC exhibit comparable performance against the observation-based estimates for the first month, whereas the predictive skill largely drops beyond 1-month. Compared to ESP_VIC, CFSv2_VIC shows better performance as indicated by the smaller ensemble range. This study highlights the value of this operational framework in generating near real-time ICs and giving a reliable prediction with 1-month ahead, which has great implications for drought risk assessment, preparation and relief.« less

Inoculation with Azospirillum sp. and Herbaspirillum sp. Bacteria Increases the Tolerance of Maize to Drought Stress.

PubMed

Curá, José Alfredo; Franz, Diego Reinaldo; Filosofía, Julián Ezequiel; Balestrasse, Karina Beatríz; Burgueño, Lautaro Exequiel

2017-07-26

Stress drought is an important abiotic factor that leads to immense losses in crop yields around the world. Strategies are urgently needed to help plants adapt to drought in order to mitigate crop losses. Here we investigated the bioprotective effects of inoculating corn grown under drought conditions with two types of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR), A. brasilense , strain SP-7, and H. seropedicae , strain Z-152. Plants inoculated with the bacteria were grown in a greenhouse with perlite as a substrate. Two hydric conditions were tested: normal well-watered conditions and drought conditions. Compared to control non-inoculated plants, those that were inoculated with PGPR bacteria showed a higher tolerance to the negative effects of water stress in drought conditions, with higher biomass production; higher carbon, nitrogen, and chlorophyll levels; and lower levels of abscisic acid and ethylene, which are plant hormones that affect the stress response. The oxidative stress levels of these plants were similar to those of non-inoculated plants grown in well-watered conditions, showing fewer injuries to the cell membrane. We also noted higher relative water content in the vegetal tissue and better osmoregulation in drought conditions in inoculated plants, as reflected by significantly lower proline content. Finally, we observed lower gene expression of ZmVP14 in the inoculated plants; notably, ZmVP14 is involved in the biosynthesis of abscisic acid. Taken together, these results demonstrate that these bacteria could be used to help plants cope with the negative effects of drought stress conditions.

Remote Sensing of Drought: Progress and Opportunities for Improving Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Huning, L. S.; Love, C. A.; Farahmand, A.

2017-12-01

This presentation surveys current and emerging drought monitoring approaches using satellite remote sensing observations from climatological and ecosystem perspectives. Satellite observations that are not currently used for operational drought monitoring, such as near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor, provide opportunities to improve early drought warning. Current and future satellite missions offer opportunities to develop composite and multi-indicator drought models. This presentation describes how different satellite observations can be combined for overall drought development and impact assessment. Finally, we provide an overview of the research gaps and challenges that are facing us ahead in the remote sensing of drought.

Global patterns of drought recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of grossmore » primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.« less

Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought

Treesearch

M. Susan Moran; Guillermo E. Ponce-Campos; Alfredo Huete; Mitchel P. McClaran; Yongguang Zhang; Erik P. Hamerlynck; David J. Augustine; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; Debra P. C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks; Mariano Hernandez

2014-01-01

Grasslands across the United States play a key role in regional livelihood and national food security. Yet, it is still unclear how this important resource will respond to the prolonged warm droughts and more intense rainfall events predicted with climate change. The early 21st-century drought in the southwestern United States resulted in hydroclimatic conditions that...

The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

2016-04-01

Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under

Impact of vegetation on land-atmosphere coupling strength and its implication for desertification mitigation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Choi, Suk-Jin; Park, Seon Ki

2012-06-01

Desertification of the East Asian drylands and the consequent dust transport have been serious concerns for adjacent Asian countries as well as the western United States. Tree planting has been considered one applicable strategy to mitigate the desertification. However, the desired effect of the tree planting would not be brought to fruition unless the newly planted trees change the coupling characteristics between the land and the atmosphere. Based on this perception, we attempt to clarify the effects of vegetation on the coupling strength between the atmosphere and land surface, and we suggest the most efficient areas of tree planting for desertification mitigation in East Asia. Using regional vegetation-atmosphere coupled model simulations, coupling strength with and without vegetation was computed and compared with each other. An increased vegetation fraction reduces the coupling strength in June, July, and August (JJA), primarily due to decreased evapotranspiration variability. This effect is pronounced over the Manchurian Plains and the highly populated areas of Beijing and Tianjin. The reduced coupling strength tends to weaken feedback between soil moisture and precipitation as a maintenance mechanism of warm season droughts in the midlatitudes and subsequently decrease the probability of droughts, a finding that is reflected in the enhanced JJA mean soil moisture. However, some drylands like the eastern edges of the Gobi desert present marginal or even opposite changes in coupling strength, meaning a limited effect of vegetation on relieving droughts. Therefore, given limited financial and human resources, acupuncture-like afforestation, i.e., concentrated tree planting in a particular region where the coupling strength can be substantially reduced by vegetation, is an effective strategy to secure long-standing desertification mitigation.

Impacts of droughts on carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Ju, W.; Wang, S.; Wu, X.; He, M.; Zhu, G.

2014-05-01

In recent years, China's terrestrial ecosystems have experienced frequent droughts. How these droughts have affected carbon sequestration by the terrestrial ecosystems is still unclear. In this study, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, driven by remotely sensed vegetation parameters, was employed to assess the effects of droughts on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems in China from 2000 to 2011. Droughts of differing severity, as indicated by a standard precipitation index (SPI), hit terrestrial ecosystems in China extensively in 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2011. The national total annual NEP exhibited the slight decline of -11.3 Tg C yr-2 during the aforementioned years of extensive droughts. The NEP reduction ranged from 61.1 Tg C yr-1 to 168.8 Tg C yr-1. National and regional total NEP anomalies were correlated with the annual mean SPI, especially in Northwest China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China. The reductions in annual NEP in 2001 and 2011 might have been caused by a larger decrease in annual gross primary productivity (GPP) than in annual ecosystem respiration (ER). The reductions experienced in 2009 might be due to a decrease in annual GPP and an increase in annual ER, while reductions in 2006 could stem from a larger increase in ER than in GPP. The effects of droughts on NEP lagged up to 3-6 months, due to different responses of GPP and ER. In eastern China, where is humid and warm, droughts have predominant and short-term lagged influences on NEP. In western regions, cold and arid, the drought effects on NEP were relatively weaker but prone to lasting longer.

Soil- and crop-dependent variation in correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices as predicted by the SWAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Azin; Cloke, Hannah; Verhoef, Anne

2017-04-01

Droughts have a devastating impact on agriculture and economy. The risk of more frequent and more severe droughts is increasing due to global warming and certain anthropogenic activities. At the same time, the global population continues to rise and the need for sustainable food production is becoming more and more pressing. In light of this, drought prediction can be of great value; in the context of early warning, preparedness and mitigation of drought impacts. Prediction of meteorological drought is associated with uncertainties around precipitation variability. As meteorological drought propagates, it can transform into agricultural drought. Determination of the maximum correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices can be useful for prediction of agricultural drought. However, the influence of soil and crop type on the lag needs to be considered, which we explored using a 1-D Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer model (SWAP (http://www.swap.alterra.nl/), with the following configurations, all forced with ERA-Interim weather data (1979 to 2014): i) different crop types in the UK; ii) three generic soil types (clay, loam and sand) were considered. A Sobol sensitivity analysis was carried out (perturbing the SWAP model van Genuchten soil hydraulic parameters) to study the effect of soil type uncertainty on the water balance variables. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, a few variations of each soil type were selected. Agricultural drought indices including Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) were calculated. The maximum correlation lag between precipitation and these drought indices was calculated, and analysed in the context of crop and soil model parameters. The findings of this research can be useful to UK farming, by guiding government bodies such as the Environment Agency when issuing drought warnings and implementing drought measures.

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ravinesh C.; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Adamowski, Jan F.; Begum, Khaleda

2017-04-01

Drought indices (DIs) that quantify drought events by their onset, termination, and subsequent properties such as the severity, duration, and peak intensity are practical stratagems for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of drought. In this study, the effective drought index (EDI) calculated over daily timescales was utilized to quantify short-term (dry spells) and ongoing drought events using drought monitoring data in Australia. EDI was an intensive DI that considered daily water accumulation with a weighting function applied to daily rainfall data with the passage of time. A statistical analysis of the distribution of water deficit period relative to the base period was performed where a run-sum method was adopted to identify drought onset for any day ( i) with EDI i < 0 (rainfall below normal). Drought properties were enumerated in terms of (1) severity (AEDI ≡ accumulated sum of EDIi < 0), (2) duration (DS ≡ cumulative number of days with EDIi < 0), (3) peak intensity (EDImin ≡ minimum EDI of a drought event), (4) annual drought severity (YAEDI ≡ yearly accumulated negative EDI), and (5) accumulated severity of ongoing drought using event-accumulated EDI (EAEDI). The analysis of EDI signal enabled the detection and quantification of a number of drought events in Australia: Federation Drought (1897-1903), 1911-1916 Drought, 1925-1929 Drought, World War II Drought (1937-1945), and Millennium Drought (2002-2010). In comparison with the other droughts, Millennium Drought was exemplified as an unprecedented dry period especially in Victoria (EAEDI ≈ -4243, DS = 1946 days, EDImin = -4.05, and YAEDI = -4903). For the weather station tested in Northern Territory, the worst drought was recorded during 1925-1929 period. The results justified the suitability of effective drought index as a useful scientific tool for monitoring of drought progression, onset and termination, and ranking of drought based on severity, duration, and peak intensity, which allows

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.