Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guetzkow, Lowell C.

1977-01-01

 Estimating relations have been developed to provide engineers and designers with improved techniques for defining flow-frequency characteristics to satisfy hydraulic planning and design requirements. The magnitude and frequency of floods up to the 100-year recurrence interval can be determined for most streams in Minnesota by methods presented. By multiple regression analysis, equations have been developed for estimating flood-frequency relations at ungaged sites on natural flow streams. Eight distinct hydrologic regions are delineated within the State with boundaries defined generally by river basin divides. Regression equations are provided for each region which relate selected frequency floods to significant basin parameters. For main-stem streams, graphs are presented showing floods for selected recurrence intervals plotted against contributing drainage area. Flow-frequency estimates for intervening sites along the Minnesota River, Mississippi River, and the Red River of the North can be derived from these graphs. Flood-frequency characteristics are tabulated for 201 paging stations having 10 or more years of record.

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.

2010-01-01

Streamgage flood-frequency analyses were done for 35 streamgages on urban streams in and adjacent to Missouri for estimation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban areas of Missouri. A log-Pearson Type-III distribution was fitted to the annual series of peak flow data retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. For this report, the flood frequency estimates are expressed in terms of percent annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2. Of the 35 streamgages, 30 are located in Missouri. The remaining five non-Missouri streamgages were added to the dataset to improve the range and applicability of the regression analyses from the streamgage frequency analyses. Ordinary least-squares was used to determine the best set of independent variables for the regression equations. Basin characteristics selected for independent variables into the ordinary least-squares regression analyses were based on theoretical relation to flood flows, literature review of possible basin characteristics, and the ability to measure the basin characteristics using digital datasets and geographic information system technology. Results of the ordinary least-squares were evaluated on the basis of Mallow's Cp statistic, the adjusted coefficient of determination, and the statistical significance of the independent variables. The independent variables of drainage area and percent impervious area were determined to be statistically significant and readily determined from existing digital datasets. The drainage area variable was computed using the best elevation data available, either from a statewide 10-meter grid or high-resolution elevation data from urban areas. The impervious area variable was computed from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area dataset. The National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area data for each basin was compared to historical imagery and 7.5-minute topographic maps to verify the national

Model synthesis in frequency analysis of Missouri floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauth, Leland D.

1974-01-01

Synthetic flood records for 43 small-stream sites aided in definition of techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in Missouri. The long-term synthetic flood records were generated by use of a digital computer model of the rainfall-runoff process. A relatively short period of concurrent rainfall and runoff data observed at each of the 43 sites was used to calibrate the model, and rainfall records covering from 66 to 78 years for four Missouri sites and pan-evaporation data were used to generate the synthetic records. Flood magnitude and frequency characteristics of both the synthetic records and observed long-term flood records available for 109 large-stream sites were used in a multiple-regression analysis to define relations for estimating future flood characteristics at ungaged sites. That analysis indicated that drainage basin size and slope were the most useful estimating variables. It also indicated that a more complex regression model than the commonly used log-linear one was needed for the range of drainage basin sizes available in this study.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummans, J.E.; Collings, Michael R.; Nasser, Edmund George

1975-01-01

Relations are provided to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on Washington streams. Annual-peak-flow data from stream gaging stations on unregulated streams having 1 years or more of record were used to determine a log-Pearson Type III frequency curve for each station. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, i0, 25, 50, and 10years were then related to physical and climatic indices of the drainage basins by multiple-regression analysis using the Biomedical Computer Program BMDO2R. These regression relations are useful for estimating flood magnitudes of the specified recurrence intervals at ungaged or short-record sites. Separate sets of regression equations were defined for western and eastern parts of the State, and the State was further subdivided into 12 regions in which the annual floods exhibit similar flood characteristics. Peak flows are related most significantly in western Washington to drainage-area size and mean annual precipitation. In eastern Washington-they are related most significantly to drainage-area size, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of forest cover. Standard errors of estimate of the estimating relations range from 25 to 129 percent, and the smallest errors are generally associated with the more humid regions.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale: RESERVOIRS FILTER FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

Anthropogenic activities, e.g., reservoir operation, may alter the characteristics of Flood Frequency Curve (FFC) and challenge the basic assumption of stationarity used in flood frequency analysis. This paper presents a combined data-modeling analysis of the nonlinear filtering effects of reservoirs on the FFCs over the contiguous United States. A dimensionless Reservoir Impact Index (RII), defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume, is used to quantify reservoir regulation effects. Analyses are performed for 388 river stations with an average record length of 50 years. The first two moments of the FFC, mean annual maximummore » flood (MAF) and coefficient of variations (CV), are calculated for the pre- and post-dam periods and compared to elucidate the reservoir regulation effects as a function of RII. It is found that MAF generally decreases with increasing RII but stabilizes when RII exceeds a threshold value, and CV increases with RII until a threshold value beyond which CV decreases with RII. The processes underlying the nonlinear threshold behavior of MAF and CV are investigated using three reservoir models with different levels of complexity. All models capture the non-linear relationships of MAF and CV with RII, suggesting that the basic flood control function of reservoirs is key to the non-linear relationships. The relative roles of reservoir storage capacity, operation objectives, available storage prior to a flood event, and reservoir inflow pattern are systematically investigated. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in regulated river systems at the regional scale.« less

Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

2010-12-01

Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous

Preliminary flood-frequency relations for small streams in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irza, T.J.

1966-01-01

Preliminary flood-frequency relations have been defined for small streams in Kansas for floods having recurrence intervals not greater than 10 years. The defined relations will be useful for the design of culverts and other hydraulic structures. The relations are expressed in terms of basin characteristics.Peakflow records at 95 sites in Kansas for an 8-year period provided the basic data. The records were analyzed with respect to 20 basin characteristics by multiple-regression techniques. The resulting formulas relate flood magnitude and frequency to size of contributing drainage area, an index of stream-bed slope, and the average number of days per year when rainfall exceeded 1.0 inch. The other 17 factors had no statistical significance.To illustrate a typical application of the flood-frequency relation, a step-bystep method is presented for computing a frequency curve for Rock Creek near Meriden, Kans. The frequency curve shows that a peak discharge of 3,620 cfs (cubic feet per second) can be expected once every 10 years on the average, and that the 67 percent confidence interval ranges from 1,820 cfs to 7,230 cfs. The large range results from the fact that only 8 years of record have been collected and emphasizes the need for collecting records for a longer period.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; Polo, María-José

2017-07-01

We explore the memory properties of catchments for predicting the likelihood of floods based on observations of average flows in pre-flood seasons. Our approach assumes that flood formation is driven by the superimposition of short- and long-term perturbations. The former is given by the short-term meteorological forcing leading to infiltration and/or saturation excess, while the latter is originated by higher-than-usual storage in the catchment. To exploit the above sensitivity to long-term perturbations, a meta-Gaussian model and a data assimilation approach are implemented for updating the flood frequency distribution a season in advance. Accordingly, the peak flow in the flood season is predicted in probabilistic terms by exploiting its dependence on the average flow in the antecedent seasons. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro and the Danube River at Bratislava. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is noticeably impacted by higher-than-usual flows occurring up to several months earlier. The proposed technique may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of flood frequency.

Nationwide summary of US Geological Survey regional regression equations for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, M.E.; Thomas, W.O.; Riggs, H.C.

1994-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been involved in the development of regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally these equations have been developed on a statewide or metropolitan area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation or specific cities. The USGS, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has compiled all the current (as of September 1993) statewide and metropolitan area regression equations into a micro-computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program.This program includes regression equations for estimating flood-peak discharges and techniques for estimating a typical flood hydrograph for a given recurrence interval peak discharge for unregulated rural and urban watersheds. These techniques should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report summarizes the statewide regression equations for rural watersheds in each State, summarizes the applicable metropolitan area or statewide regression equations for urban watersheds, describes the National Flood Frequency Program for making these computations, and provides much of the reference information on the extrapolation variables needed to run the program.

Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Susana; Ghimire, Ramesh

2012-08-01

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human-flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

24 CFR 570.605 - National Flood Insurance Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false National Flood Insurance Program... Requirements § 570.605 National Flood Insurance Program. Notwithstanding the date of HUD approval of the... accordance with 24 CFR part 91), section 202(a) of the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973 (42 U.S.C. 4106...

Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

2009-12-01

The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

An analysis of the magnitude and frequency of floods on Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakahara, R.H.

1980-01-01

An analysis of available peak-flow data for the island of Oahu, Hawaii, was made by using multiple regression techniques which related flood-frequency data to basin and climatic characteristics for 74 gaging stations on Oahu. In the analysis, several different groupings of stations were investigated, including divisions by geographic location and size of drainage area. The grouping consisting of two leeward divisions and one windward division produced the best results. Drainage basins ranged in area from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Equations relating flood magnitudes of selected frequencies to basin characteristics were developed for the three divisions of Oahu. These equations can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods for any site, gaged or ungaged, for any desired recurrence interval from 2 to 100 years. Data on basin characteristics, flood magnitudes for various recurrence intervals from individual station-frequency curves, and computed flood magnitudes by use of the regression equation are tabulated to provide the needed data. (USGS)

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States. Part 13. Snake River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Broom, H.C.; Cummans, J.E.

1963-01-01

The magnitude of a flood of any selected frequency up to 50 years for any site on any stream in the Snake River basin can be determined by methods outlined in this report, with some limitations. The methods are not applicable for regulated streams, for drainage basins smaller than 10 or larger than 5,000 square miles, for streams fed by large springs, or for streams that have flow characteristics materially different from the regional pattern. The magnitude of a flood for a selected frequency at a given site is determined by using the appropriate composite frequency curve and the mean annual flood for the given site. The mean annual flood is computed from either a formula or a nomograph in which drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and a geographic factor are used as independent variables. The standard error of estimate for the computation of mean annual floods is plus 17 percent and minus 15 percent.Nine flood-frequency regions (A-I) are defined. In all except regions B and I, frequency relations vary with the mean altitude of the basin as well as with the geographic location; therefore, families of curves are required for 7 of the 9 flood-frequency regions.The report includes a brief description of the physiography and climate of the Snake River basin to explain the reason for the large variation in mean annual floods, which range from zero to about 27 cubic feet per second per square mile.Composite frequency curves and formulas for computing mean annual floods are based on all suitable flood data collected in the Snake River basin. Tables show the data used to derive the formula. Following the analysis of data are station descriptions and lists of peak stages and discharges for 295 gaging stations at which 5 or more years of annual flood records were collected pr'or to Sept. 30, 1957. Many flood peak data are not usable in defining the frequency curves and deriving the formula because of large diversions and regulation upstream from the gaging stations.

Floods on small streams in North Carolina, probable magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinson, Herbert G.

1965-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of floods are defined regionally for small streams (drainage area, 1 to 150 sq mi) in North Carolina. Composite frequency curves for each of two regions relate the magnitude of the annual flood, in ratio to the mean annual flood, to recurrence intervals of 1.1 to 50 years. In North Carolina, the mean annual flood (Q2.33) is related to drainage area (A) by the following equation: Q2. 33 = GA0.66, where G, the geographic factor, is the product of a statewide coefficient (US) times a correction which reflects differences in basin characteristics. Isograms of the G factor covering the State are presented.

Magnitude and frequency of summer floods in western New Mexico and eastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennon, F.W.

1955-01-01

Numerous small reservoirs and occasional water-spreading structures are being built on the ephemeral streams draining the public and Indian lands of the Southwest as part of the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs.  Economic design of these structures requires some knowledge of the flood rates and volumes.  Information concerning flood frequencies on areas less than 100 square miles is deficient throughout the country, particularly on intermittent streams of the Southwest.  Design engineers require a knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of flood volumes for the planning of adequate reservoir capacities and a knowledge of frequency and magnitude of flood peaks for spillway design.  Hence, this study deals with both flood volumes and peaks, the same statistical methods being used to develop frequency curves for each.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical and Paleoflood Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

1986-05-01

An investigation is made of flood quantile estimators which can employ "historical" and paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two categories of historical information are considered: "censored" data, where the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known; and "binomial" data, where only threshold exceedance information is available. A Monte Carlo study employing the two-parameter lognormal distribution shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gage record from a 50-year period of historical observation. The MLE routines are shown to be substantially better than an adjusted-moment estimator similar to the one recommended in Bulletin 17B of the United States Water Resources Council Hydrology Committee (1982). The MLE methods performed well even when floods were drawn from other than the assumed lognormal distribution.

Accounting for Atmospheric Rivers in the Flood Frequency Estimation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, N. A.; Villarini, G.; White, K. D.

2016-12-01

The Bulletin 17B framework assumes that the observed annual peak flow data included in a flood frequency analysis are a "representative time sample of random homogeneous events." However, flood frequency analysis over the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood generating mechanisms, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. It is relatively common for the annual peaks fitted to the log-Pearson Type III distribution in these regions to show sharp breaks in the slope or a curve that reverses direction, pointing to the presence of different flood generating mechanisms. Following the recommendation by B17B to develop separate frequency curves when different flood agents can be identified, we will perform flood frequency analyses accounting for the role played by ARs. We will compare and contrast the results obtained by treating all annual maximum discharge values as generated from a single population against those from a mixed population analyses.

The complexities of urban flood response: Flood frequency analyses for the Charlotte metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhengzheng; Smith, James A.; Yang, Long; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Chaney, Molly; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Deng, Huiping; Liu, Shuguang

2017-08-01

We examine urban flood response through data-driven analyses for a diverse sample of "small" watersheds (basin scale ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2) in the Charlotte Metropolitan region. These watersheds have experienced extensive urbanization and suburban development since the 1960s. The objective of this study is to develop a broad characterization of land surface and hydrometeorological controls of urban flood hydrology. Our analyses are based on peaks-over-threshold flood data developed from USGS streamflow observations and are motivated by problems of flood hazard characterization for urban regions. We examine flood-producing rainfall using high-resolution (1 km2 spatial resolution and 15 min time resolution), bias-corrected radar rainfall fields that are developed through the Hydro-NEXRAD system. The analyses focus on the 2001-2015 period. The results highlight the complexities of urban flood response. There are striking spatial heterogeneities in flood peak magnitudes, response times, and runoff ratios across the study region. These spatial heterogeneities are mainly linked to watershed scale, the distribution of impervious cover, and storm water management. Contrasting land surface properties also determine the mixture of flood-generating mechanisms for a particular watershed. Warm-season thunderstorm systems and tropical cyclones are main flood agents in Charlotte, with winter/spring storms playing a role in less-urbanized watersheds. The mixture of flood agents exerts a strong impact on the upper tail of flood frequency distributions. Antecedent watershed wetness plays a minor role in urban flood response, compared with less-urbanized watersheds. Implications for flood hazard characterization in urban watersheds and for advances in flood science are discussed.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Turney, Lovina A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed

Regional flood-frequency relations for streams with many years of no flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hjalmarson, Hjalmar W.; Thomas, Blakemore E.; ,

1990-01-01

In the southwestern United States, flood-frequency relations for streams that drain small arid basins are difficult to estimate, largely because of the extreme temporal and spatial variability of floods and the many years of no flow. A method is proposed that is based on the station-year method. The new method produces regional flood-frequency relations using all available annual peak-discharge data. The prediction errors for the relations are directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods on streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glatfelter, D.R.

1984-01-01

A rainfall-runoff model was tlsed to synthesize long-term peak data at 11 gaged locations on small streams. Flood-frequency curves developed from the long-term synthetic data were combined with curves based on short-term observed data to provide weighted estimates of flood magnitude and frequency at the rainfall-runoff stations.

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.; Lall, U.

2016-08-01

Floods are one of the most serious forms of natural hazards in terms of the damages they cause. In 2012 alone, flood damages exceeded 19 billion. A large proportion of the damages from several recent major flood disasters, such as those in South India and South Carolina (2015), England and Wales (2014), the Mississippi (2012), Thailand (2011), Queensland (Australia) (2010-2011), and Pakistan (2010), were related to the long duration of those flood events. However, most flood risk studies to date do not account for flood duration. In this paper, we provide the first global modelling exercise to assess the link between interannual climate variability and flood duration and frequency. Specifically, we examine relationships between simulated flood events and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results show that the duration of flooding appears to be more sensitive to ENSO than is the case for flood frequency. At the globally aggregated scale, we found floods to be significantly longer during both El Niño and La Niña years, compared to neutral years. At the scale of individual river basins, we found strong correlations between ENSO and both flood frequency and duration for a large number of basins, with generally stronger correlations for flood duration than for flood frequency. Future research on flood impacts should attempt to incorporate more information on flood durations.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

A physically based analytical model of flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-09-01

Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is a key issue in hydrology, with implications in many fields ranging from river science and geomorphology to the insurance industry. In this paper, a novel physically based approach is proposed to estimate the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima. The method links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge, providing an analytical expression of the seasonal flood frequency curve. The parameters involved in the formulation embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which is linked to the antecedent wetness condition in the watershed, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The performance of the method is discussed through a set of applications in four rivers featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model provides reliable estimates of seasonal maximum flows in different climatic settings and is able to capture diverse shapes of flood frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes. The proposed method exploits experimental information on the full range of discharges experienced by rivers. As a consequence, model performances do not deteriorate when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. The approach provides a framework for the prediction of floods based on short data series of rainfall and daily streamflows that may be especially valuable in data scarce regions of the world.

Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.; Cunningham, M.K.

1994-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2015-04-01

Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Magnitude and frequency of Iowa floods, Part two

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.

1966-01-01

Floqd records fo.r regular and partial-record gaging stations are contained in the following pages. Each listing contains the station number .and name, descriptive paragraphs pertaining to the station, qnd a listing of the flood peaks available through the 1965 water year. Peaks above a base as well as annual peaks are listed. These provide the data for a partial-duration flood-frequency curve. Most of the material is self-explan~tory and needs no discussion. However, a few items may be made clearer by the brief explanation which follows. 

Magnitude and frequency of floods in western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Hubbard, Larry L.; Hubbard, Lawrence E.

1979-01-01

A method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods is presented for unregulated streams in western Oregon. Equations relating flood magnitude to basin characteristics were developed for exceedance probabilities of 0.5 to 0.01 (2- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Separate equations are presented for four regions: Coast, Willamette, Rogue-Umpqua, and High Cascades. Also presented are values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and of basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis. Included are data for 230 stations in Oregon, 6 stations in southwestern Washington, and 3 stations in northwestern California. Drainage areas used in the analysis range from 0.21 to 7,280 square miles. Also included are maximum discharges for all western Oregon stations used in the analysis. (Woodard-USGS)

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital

Analysis of Non-Tropical Cyclone Induced Flood Events over South East Asia: Investigating Flood Frequency and Extremes in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcella, M. P.; CHEN, C.; Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Much work has been completed in analyzing Southeast Asia's tropical cyclone climatology and the associated flooding throughout the region. Although, an active and strong monsoon season also brings major flooding across the Philippines resulting in the loss of lives and significant economic impacts, only a limited amount of research work has been conducted to investigate the frequency and flood loss estimates of these non-tropical cyclone (TC) storms. In this study, using the TRMM 3-hourly rainfall product, tropical cyclone rainfall is removed to construct a non-TC rainfall climatology across the region. Given this data, stochastically generated rainfall that is both spatially and temporally correlated across the country is created to generate a longer historically-based record of non-TC precipitation. After defining the rainfall criteria that constitutes a flood event based on observed floods and TRMM data, this event definition is applied to the stochastic catalog of rainfall to determine flood events. Subsequently, a thorough analysis of non-TC flood extremes, frequency, and distribution is completed for the country of the Philippines. As a result, the above methodology and datasets provide a unique opportunity to further study flood occurrences and their extremes across most of South East Asia.

Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

2014-01-01

Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Daryl; Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky; Sharma, Ashneel; Macklin, Mark

2017-03-01

Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack-water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000-2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within-channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the ≤1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Flood characteristics of Oklahoma streams techniques for calculating magnitude and frequency of floods in Oklahoma, with compilations of flood data through 1971

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1974-01-01

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods are related to basin and climatic parameters for natural streams in Oklahoma by multiple regression techniques through the mathematical model, Qx=aAbScPd,where Qx is peak discharge for recurrence interval x, A is contributing drainage area, S is main channel slope, P is mean annual precipitation, and a, b, c, and d are regression constants and coefficients. One equation for each recurrence interval applies statewide for all natural streams of less than 2,500 mil (6,500 km2), except where manmade works, such as dams, flood-detention structures, levees, channelization, and urban development, appreciably affect flood runoff. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency of a stream at an ungaged site if drainage area size, main channel slope, and mean annual precipitation are known. At or near gaged sites, a weighted average of the regression results and the gaging station data is recommended.Individual relations of flood magnitude to contributing drainage area are given for all or parts of the main stems of the Arkansas, Salt Fork Arkansas, Cimarron, North Canadian, Canadian, Washita, North Fork Red, and Red Rivers. Parts of some of these streams, and all of the Neosho and Verdigris Rivers are not included because the effects of. major regulation from large reservoirs cannot be evaluated within the scope of the report. Graphical relations of maximum floods of record for eastern and western Oklahoma provide a guide to maximum probable floods. A random sampling of the seasonal occurrence of floods indicated about two-thirds of all annual floods in Oklahoma occur during. April through July. Less than one-half of one percent of annual floods occur in December. A compilation of flood records at all gaging sites in Oklahoma and some selected sites in adjacent States is given in an appendix. Basin and climatic parameters and log-Pearson Type III frequency data and statistics are given for most

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

The Effects of the Saluda Dam on the Surface-Water and Ground-Water Hydrology of the Congaree National Park Flood Plain, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Harrelson, Larry G.

2008-01-01

The Congaree National Park was established '... to preserve and protect for the education, inspiration, and enjoyment of present and future generations an outstanding example of a near-virgin, southern hardwood forest situated in the Congaree River flood plain in Richland County, South Carolina' (Public Law 94-545). The resource managers at Congaree National Park are concerned about the timing, frequency, magnitude, and duration of flood-plain inundation of the Congaree River. The dynamics of the Congaree River directly affect ground-water levels in the flood plain, and the delivery of sediments and nutrients is constrained by the duration, extent, and frequency of flooding from the Congaree River. The Congaree River is the southern boundary of the Congaree National Park and is formed by the convergence of the Saluda and Broad Rivers 24 river miles upstream from the park. The streamflow of the Saluda River has been regulated since 1929 by the operation of the Saluda Dam at Lake Murray. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, Congaree National Park, studied the interaction between surface water in the Congaree River and ground water in the flood plain to determine the effect Saluda Dam operations have on water levels in the Congaree National Park flood plain. Analysis of peak flows showed the reduction in peak flows after the construction of Lake Murray was more a result of climate variability and the absence of large floods after 1930 than the operation of the Lake Murray dam. Dam operations reduced the recurrence interval of the 2-year to 100-year peak flows by 6.1 to 17.6 percent, respectively. Analysis of the daily gage height of the Congaree River showed that the dam has had the effect of lowering high gage heights (95th percentile) in the first half of the year (December to May) and raising low gage heights (5th percentile) in the second half of the year (June to November). The dam has also had the effect of increasing the 1

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

PubMed

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

2018-02-01

Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

Flood frequency analysis - the challenge of using historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn

2015-04-01

Estimates of high flood quantiles are needed for many applications, .e.g. dam safety assessments are based on the 1000 years flood, whereas the dimensioning of important infrastructure requires estimates of the 200 year flood. The flood quantiles are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution to a dataset of high flows comprising either annual maximum values or peaks over a selected threshold. Since the record length of data is limited compared to the desired flood quantile, the estimated flood magnitudes are based on a high degree of extrapolation. E.g. the longest time series available in Norway are around 120 years, and as a result any estimation of a 1000 years flood will require extrapolation. One solution is to extend the temporal dimension of a data series by including information about historical floods before the stream flow was systematically gaugeded. Such information could be flood marks or written documentation about flood events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the added value of using historical flood data for at-site flood frequency estimation. The historical floods were included in two ways by assuming: (1) the size of (all) floods above a high threshold within a time interval is known; and (2) the number of floods above a high threshold for a time interval is known. We used a Bayesian model formulation, with MCMC used for model estimation. This estimation procedure allowed us to estimate the predictive uncertainty of flood quantiles (i.e. both sampling and parameter uncertainty is accounted for). We tested the methods using 123 years of systematic data from Bulken in western Norway. In 2014 the largest flood in the systematic record was observed. From written documentation and flood marks we had information from three severe floods in the 18th century and they were likely to exceed the 2014 flood. We evaluated the added value in two ways. First we used the 123 year long streamflow time series and investigated the effect of having several

Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, Amin; Bharath, Raja; Lakhanpal, Anchit; Ceola, Serena; Montanari, Alberto; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

2017-04-01

In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to water-related problems are uncommon. In this study, a national-scale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

Links Between Flood Frequency and Annual Water Balance Behaviors: A Basis for Similarity and Regionalization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Jiali; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset, which systematically explored the connection between the flood frequency curve and measures of mean annual water balance. Two different measures of mean annual water balance are used: (i) a climatic aridity index, AI, which is a measure of the competition between water and energy availability at the annual scale; and, (ii) baseflow index, BFI, the ratio of slow runoff to total runoff also at the annual time scale, reflecting the role of geology, soils, topography andmore » vegetation. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI, has a first order control on both the mean and Cv of annual maximum floods. While mean annual flood decreases with increasing aridity, Cv increases with increasing aridity. BFI appeared to be a second order control on the magnitude and shape of the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI, meaning more subsurface flow and less surface flow leads to a decrease of mean annual flood whereas lower BFI leads to accumulation of soil moisture and increased flood magnitudes that arise from many events acting together. The results presented in this paper provide innovative means to delineate homogeneous regions within which the flood frequency curves can be assumed to be functionally similar. At another level, understanding the connection between annual water balance and flood frequency will be another building block towards developing comprehensive understanding of catchment runoff behavior in a holistic way.« less

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

2016-04-01

Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

Extent and frequency of floods on the Schuylkill River near Phoenixville and Pottstown, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, William F.; Shaw, Lewis C.

1973-01-01

Knowledge of the frequency and extent of flooding is an important requirement for the design of all works of man bordering or encroaching on flood plains. The proper design of bridges, culverts, dams, highways, levees, reservoirs, sewage-disposal systems, waterworks and all structures on the flood plains of streams requires careful consideration of flood hazards. -1- By use of relations presented in this report, the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Schuylkill River from Oaks to Pottstown. These flood data are presented so that regulatory agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain-inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plaininundation studies are a prerequisite to flood-plain management which may include a mixture of flood-control structures and/or land-use regulations. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the Comprehensive Plan for development of the Delaware River basin, of which the Schuylkill River is a part. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with State, and local interests.

On Flood Frequency in Urban Areas under Changing Conditions and Implications on Stormwater Infrastructure Planning and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, A.; Habibi, H.; Nazari, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-12-01

With urbanization and climate change, many areas in the US and abroad face increasing threats of flash flooding. Due to nonstationarities arising from changes in land cover and climate, however, it is not readily possible to project how such changes may modify flood frequency. In this work, we describe a simple spatial stochastic model for rainfall-to-areal runoff in urban areas, evaluate climatological mean and variance of mean areal runoff (MAR) over a range of catchment scale, translate them into runoff frequency, which is used as a proxy for flood frequency, and assess its sensitivity to precipitation, imperviousness and soil, and their changes as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The findings indicate that, due to large sensitivity of frequency of MAR to multiple hydrometeorological and physiographic factors, estimation of flood frequency for urban catchments is inherently more uncertain. The approach used in this work is useful in developing bounds for flood frequencies in urban areas under nonstationary conditions arising from urbanization and climate change.

Estimation of frequency based flood peak for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report presents: (1) calculation of flood frequency for the Ward Creek watershed using eight flood prediction models, (2) establishment of the rating curve (stage-discharge relation) for the Ward Creek watershed, (3) evaluation of these flood pr...

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both

Slovak Flood Forecasting Service at the National and International Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leskova, Danica; Mikuličková, Michaela

2017-04-01

National Flood Forecasting Service is based on national legislation /Slovak legislation/ so that it could deal with the flood situation at the local level. Information about international rivers, e.g.: Danube, March (Morava), Uh, and Latorica are received on the basis of bilateral agreements. An important supplementary information is the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). In this presentation a forecasting system POVAPSYS, which has been in Slovakia in use since 2016, is also shown. The Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) is a partner of EFAS, but simultaneously is a part of consortium of the EFAS Dissemination Centre, and its role is to analyze results of models, to analyze hydrometeorological situation, to disseminate information, and to send flood notifications to the EFAS partners. Both systems will be presented.

Extent and frequency of floods on Delaware River in vicinity of Belvidere, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farlekas, George M.

1966-01-01

A stream overflowing its banks is a natural phenomenon. This natural phenomenon of flooding has occurred on the Delaware River in the past and will occur in the future. T' o resulting inundation of large areas can cause property damage, business losses and possible loss of life, and may result in emergency costs for protection, rescue, and salvage work. For optimum development of the river valley consistent with the flood risk, an evaluation of flood conditions is necessary. Basic data and the interpretation of the data on the regimen of the streams, particularly the magnitude of floods to be expected, the frequency of their occurrence, and the areas inundated, are essential for planning and development of flood-prone areas.This report presents information relative to the extent, depth, and frequency of floods on the Delaware River and its tributaries in the vicinity of Belvidere, N.J. Flooding on the tributaries detailed in the report pertains only to the effect of backwater from the Delaware River. Data are presented for several past floods with emphasis given to the floods of August 19, 1955 and May 24, 1942. In addition, information is given for a hypothetical flood based on the flood of August 19, 1955 modified by completed (since 1955) and planned flood-control works.By use of relations presented in this report the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Delaware River under study. Flood data and the evaluation of the data are presented so that local and regional agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plain inundation studies, when followed by appropriate land-use regulations, are a valuable and economical supplement to physical works for flood

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in Puerto Rico : new empirical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramos-Gines, Orlando

1999-01-01

Flood-peak discharges and frequencies are presented for 57 gaged sites in Puerto Rico for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The log-Pearson Type III distribution, the methodology recommended by the United States Interagency Committee on Water Data, was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at the gaged sites having 10 to 43 years of record. A technique is presented for estimating flood-peak discharges at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated streams in Puerto Rico with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.83 to 208 square miles. Loglinear multiple regression analyses, using climatic and basin characteristics and peak-discharge data from the 57 gaged sites, were used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged to ungaged sites. The equations have contributing drainage area, depth-to-rock, and mean annual rainfall as the basin and climatic characteristics in estimating flood peak discharges. Examples are given to show a step-by-step procedure in calculating a 100-year flood at a gaged site, an ungaged site, a site near a gaged location, and a site between two gaged sites.

Framework for National Flood Risk Assessment for Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Raja, B.; Lakhanpal, A.; Razavi, S.; Ceola, S.; Montanari, A.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, floods have been identified as a standout amongst the most widely recognized catastrophic events, resulting in the loss of life and property. These natural hazards cannot be avoided, but their consequences can certainly be reduced by having prior knowledge of their occurrence and impact. In the context of floods, the terms occurrence and impact are substituted by flood hazard and flood vulnerability, respectively, which collectively define the flood risk. There is a high need for identifying the flood-prone areas and to quantify the risk associated with them. The present study aims at delivering flood risk maps, which prioritize the potential flood risk areas in Canada. The methodology adopted in this study involves integrating various available spatial datasets such as nightlights satellite imagery, land use, population and the digital elevation model, to build a flexible framework for national flood risk assessment for Canada. The flood risk framework assists in identifying the flood-prone areas and evaluating the associated risk. All these spatial datasets were brought to a common GIS platform for flood risk analysis. The spatial datasets deliver the socioeconomic and topographical information that is required for evaluating the flood vulnerability and flood hazard, respectively. Nightlights have been investigated as a tool to be used as a proxy for the human activities to identify areas with regard to economic investment. However, other datasets, including existing flood protection measures, we added to identify a realistic flood assessment framework. Furthermore, the city of Calgary was used as an example to investigate the effect of using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of varying resolutions on risk maps. Along with this, the risk map for the city was further enhanced by including the population data to give a social dimension to the risk map. Flood protection measures play a major role by significantly reducing the flood risk of events with a

Cahokia's emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-05-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia-a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies.

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

Nonstationary frequency analysis for the trivariate flood series of the Weihe River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Xiong, Lihua

2016-04-01

Some intensive human activities such as water-soil conservation can significantly alter the natural hydrological processes of rivers. In this study, the effect of the water-soil conservation on the trivariate flood series from the Weihe River located in the Northwest China is investigated. The annual maxima daily discharge, annual maxima 3-day flood volume and annual maxima 5-day flood volume are chosen as the study data and used to compose the trivariate flood series. The nonstationarities in both the individual univariate flood series and the corresponding antecedent precipitation series generating the flood events are examined by the Mann-Kendall trend test. It is found that all individual univariate flood series present significant decreasing trend, while the antecedent precipitation series can be treated as stationary. It indicates that the increase of the water-soil conservation land area has altered the rainfall-runoff relationship of the Weihe basin, and induced the nonstationarities in the three individual univariate flood series. The time-varying moments model based on the Pearson type III distribution is applied to capture the nonstationarities in the flood frequency distribution with the water-soil conservation land area introduced as the explanatory variable of the flood distribution parameters. Based on the analysis for each individual univariate flood series, the dependence structure among the three univariate flood series are investigated by the time-varying copula model also with the water-soil conservation land area as the explanatory variable of copula parameters. The results indicate that the dependence among the trivariate flood series is enhanced by the increase of water-soil conservation land area.

Decadal changes in the frequency of major floods in near-natural catchments across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Hannaford, Jamie; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Fleig, Anne; Stahl, Kerstin; Renard, Benjamin; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

Recent major floods in North America and Europe have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has therefore been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, the current study is analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine long-term variability in the number of major floods, annual exceedances of 25-, 50-, and 100-year

Improving flash flood frequency analyses by using non-systematic dendrogeomorphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; María Bodoque, Jose; Garrote, Julio; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania

2017-04-01

Flash floods have a rapid hydrological response in catchments with short lag times, characterized by ''peaky'' hydrographs. The peak flows are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to prevent and mitigate flood damage. As a result, flash floods may result in a high social risk, as shown for instance by the 1997 Biescas disaster in Spain. The analysis and management of flood risk are clearly conditioned by data availability, especially in mountain areas where usually flash-floods occur. Nevertheless, in mountain basins there is often short data series available that are not accurate in terms of statistical significance. In addition, when flow data is ready for use maximum annual values are generally not as reliable as average flow values, since conventional stream gauge stations may not record the extreme floods, leading to gaps in the time series. Dendrogeomorphology has been shown to be especially useful for improving flood frequency analyses in catchments where short flood series limit the use of conventional hydrological methods. This study presents pros and cons of using a given probability distribution function, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to account for non-systematic data provided by dendrogeomorphic techniques, in order to asses flood quantile estimates accuracy. To this end, we have considered a set of locations in Central Spain, where systematic flow available at a gauging site can be extended with non-systematic data obtained from implementation of dendrogeomorphic techniques.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and

Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Rural Basins in the Southeastern United States: South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2009-01-01

For more than 50 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations that can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. Flood magnitude relates to the volume of flow that occurs over some period of time and usually is presented in cubic feet per second. Flood frequency relates to the probability of occurrence of a flood; that is, on average, what is the likelihood that a flood with a specified magnitude will occur in any given year (1 percent chance, 10 percent chance, 50 percent chance, and so on). Such flood estimates are needed for the efficient design of bridges, highway embankments, levees, and other structures near streams. In addition, these estimates are needed for the effective planning and management of land and water resources, to protect lives and property in flood-prone areas, and to determine flood-insurance rates.

Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

2018-05-01

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high

RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T.

2016-03-16

for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities.Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) ranged from 85 to 91 percent.The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web

Catchment scale afforestation for mitigating flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Bathurst, James; Birkinshaw, Stephen

2016-04-01

After the 2013-14 floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. At present, 1 in 6 homes in Britain are at risk of flooding and current EU legislation demands a sustainable, 'nature-based solution'. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management technique remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. SHETRAN, physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological models of the Irthing catchment and Wark forest sub-catchments (northern England) have been developed in order to test the hypothesis of the effect trees have on flood magnitude. The advanced physically-based models have been designed to model scale-related responses from 1, through 10, to 100km2, a first study of the extent to which afforestation and woody debris runoff attenuation features (RAFs) may help to mitigate floods at the full catchment scale (100-1000 km2) and on a national basis. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, and the installation of nature-based RAFs, such as woody debris dams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. The impacts of riparian planting and the benefits of adding large woody debris of several designs and on differing sizes of channels has also been simulated using advanced hydrodynamic (HiPIMS) and hydrological modelling (SHETRAN). With the aim of determining the effect forestry may have on flood frequency, 1000 years of generated rainfall data representative of current conditions has been used to determine the difference between current land-cover, different distributions of forest cover and the defining scenarios - complete forest removal and complete afforestation of the catchment. The simulations show the percentage of forestry required to have a significant impact on mitigating

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

PubMed Central

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-01-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia—a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies. PMID:25941363

Analyses of flood-flow frequency for selected gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, R.D.; Hoffman, E.B.; Wipf, V.J.

1985-01-01

Analyses of flood flow frequency were made for 111 continuous-record gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of record. The analyses were developed using the log-Pearson Type III procedure recommended by the U.S. Water Resources Council. The procedure characterizes flood occurrence at a single site as a sequence of annual peak flows. The magnitudes of the annual peak flows are assumed to be independent random variables following a log-Pearson Type III probability distribution, which defines the probability that any single annual peak flow will exceed a specified discharge. By considering only annual peak flows, the flood-frequency analysis becomes the estimation of the log-Pearson annual-probability curve using the record of annual peak flows at the site. The recorded data are divided into two classes: systematic and historic. The systematic record includes all annual peak flows determined in the process of conducting a systematic gaging program at a site. In this program, the annual peak flow is determined for each and every year of the program. The systematic record is intended to constitute an unbiased and representative sample of the population of all possible annual peak flows at the site. In contrast to the systematic record, the historic record consists of annual peak flows that would not have been determined except for evidence indicating their unusual magnitude. Flood information acquired from historical sources almost invariably refers to floods of noteworthy, and hence extraordinary, size. Although historic records form a biased and unrepresentative sample, they can be used to supplement the systematic record. (Author 's abstract)

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges for Rural, Unregulated Streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Flood-frequency discharges were determined for 290 streamgage stations having a minimum of 9 years of record in West Virginia and surrounding states through the 2006 or 2007 water year. No trend was determined in the annual peaks used to calculate the flood-frequency discharges. Multiple and simple least-squares regression equations for the 100-year (1-percent annual-occurrence probability) flood discharge with independent variables that describe the basin characteristics were developed for 290 streamgage stations in West Virginia and adjacent states. The regression residuals for the models were evaluated and used to define three regions of the State, designated as Eastern Panhandle, Central Mountains, and Western Plateaus. Exploratory data analysis procedures identified 44 streamgage stations that were excluded from the development of regression equations representative of rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year flood discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression using data from the remaining 246 streamgage stations. Drainage area was the only significant independent variable determined for all equations in all regions. Procedures developed to estimate flood-frequency discharges on ungaged streams were based on (1) regional equations and (2) drainage-area ratios between gaged and ungaged locations on the same stream. The procedures are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have drainage areas within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations (from 0.21 to 1,461 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle, from 0.10 to 1,619 square miles in the Central Mountains, and from 0.13 to 1,516 square miles in the Western Plateaus). The accuracy of the equations is quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 21.7 to 56.3 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 2.0 to 70

Towards a systematic approach to comparing distributions used in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobée, B.; Cavadias, G.; Ashkar, F.; Bernier, J.; Rasmussen, P.

1993-02-01

The estimation of flood quantiles from available streamflow records has been a topic of extensive research in this century. However, the large number of distributions and estimation methods proposed in the scientific literature has led to a state of confusion, and a gap prevails between theory and practice. This concerns both at-site and regional flood frequency estimation. To facilitate the work of "hydrologists, designers of hydraulic structures, irrigation engineers and planners of water resources", the World Meteorological Organization recently published a report which surveys and compares current methodologies, and recommends a number of statistical distributions and estimation procedures. This report is an important step towards the clarification of this difficult topic, but we think that it does not effectively satisfy the needs of practitioners as intended, because it contains some statements which are not statistically justified and which require further discussion. In the present paper we review commonly used procedures for flood frequency estimation, point out some of the reasons for the present state of confusion concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, and propose the broad lines of a possible comparison strategy. We recommend that the results of such comparisons be discussed in an international forum of experts, with the purpose of attaining a more coherent and broadly accepted strategy for estimating floods.

A National Assessment of Changes in Flood Exposure in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, N.; Qiang, Y.; Cai, H.; Zou, L.

2017-12-01

Analyzing flood exposure and its temporal trend is the first step toward understanding flood risk, flood hazard, and flood vulnerability. This presentation is based on a national, county-based study assessing the changes in population and urban areas in high-risk flood zones from 2001-2011 in the contiguous United States. Satellite land use land cover data, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s 100-year flood maps, and census data were used to extract the proportion of developed (urban) land in flood zones by county in the two time points, and indices of difference were calculated. Local Moran's I statistic was applied to identify hotspots of increase in urban area in flood zones, and geographically weighted regression was used to estimate the population in flood zones from the land cover data. Results show that in 2011, an estimate of about 25.3 million people (8.3% of the total population) lived in the high-risk flood zones. Nationally, the ratio of urban development in flood zones is less than the ratio of land in flood zones, implying that Americans were responsive to flood hazards by avoiding development in flood zones. However, this trend varied from place to place, with coastal counties having less urban development in flood zones than the inland counties. Furthermore, the contrast between coastal and inland counties increased during 2001-2011. Finally, several exceptions from the trend (hotspots) were detected, most notably New York City and Miami where significant increases in urban development in flood zones were found. This assessment provides important baseline information on the spatial patterns of flood exposure and their changes from 2001-2011. The study pinpoints regions that may need further investigations and better policy to reduce the overall flood risks. Methodologically, the study demonstrates that pixelated land cover data can be integrated with other natural and human data to investigate important societal problems. The same

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

Coastal flood implications of 1.5°C, 2°C and 2.5°C global mean temperature stabilization targets for small island nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D.; Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of flooding in coastal regions. The rate and amount of global-mean SLR is a function of the trajectory of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g., 1.5°C or 2°C, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for regulating coastal flood risk. Quantifying the differences in the impact from SLR between these and other GMST stabilization targets is necessary for assessing the benefits and harms of mitigation goals. Low-lying small island nations are particularly vulnerable to inundation and coastal flooding from SLR because building protective and resilient infrastructure may not be physically or economically feasible. For small island nations, keeping GMST below a specified threshold may be the only option for maintaining habitability. Here, we assess differences in the return levels of coastal floods for small island nations between 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C GMST stabilization. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to construct estimates of local flood risk. We then estimate the number of small island nations' inhabitants at risk for permanent inundation under different GMST stabilization targets.

Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.

2014-01-01

Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

PubMed Central

Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation. PMID:27840456

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information.

PubMed

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Preliminary evaluation of flood frequency relations in the urban areas of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boning, Charles W.

1977-01-01

A storm-runoff relation for streams in the urban areas of Memphis was determined by a statistical evaluation of 59 flood discharges from 19 gaging stations. These flood discharges were related to drainage area, percent imperviousness of the drainage basin, and rainfall occuring over 120-minute periods. The defined relation is Q=m3A*777A - .02 tI,,,,P + 1j-227 (1120).539(t120).40 where Q is flood discharge in cfs, A is drainage area in square miles, IMP is percent imperviousness in the basin, and I120 is rainfall in inches, over 120 minute time period. The defined relation was used to synthesize sets of annual flood peaks for drainage basins ranging from .05 square miles to 10 square miles and imperviousness ranging from 0 to 80 percent for the period of rainfall record at Memphis. From these series of flood peaks, frequency relations were defined and presented for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 year recurrent intervals.

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

1993-01-01

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The

A Methodology for Forecasting Damage & Economic Consequences to Floods: Building on the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Zhang, X.

2015-12-01

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) held June 3-July 17, 2015 at the National Water Center (NWC) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama sought to demonstrate an increase in flood predictive capacity for the coterminous United States (CONUS). Accordingly, NFIE-derived technologies and workflows offer the ability to forecast flood damage and economic consequence estimates that coincide with the hydrologic and hydraulic estimations these physics-based models generate. A model providing an accurate prediction of damage and economic consequences is a valuable asset when allocating funding for disaster response, recovery, and relief. Damage prediction and economic consequence assessment also offer an adaptation planning mechanism for defending particularly valuable or vulnerable structures. The NFIE, held at the NWC on The University of Alabama (UA) campus led to the development of this large scale flow and inundation forecasting framework. Currently, the system can produce 15-hour lead-time forecasts for the entire coterminous United States (CONUS). A concept which is anticipated to become operational as of May 2016 within the NWC. The processing of such a large-scale, fine resolution model is accomplished in a parallel computing environment using large supercomputing clusters. Traditionally, flood damage and economic consequence assessment is calculated in a desktop computing environment with a ménage of meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic, and damage assessment tools. In the United States, there are a range of these flood damage/ economic consequence assessment software's available to local, state, and federal emergency management agencies. Among the more commonly used and freely accessible models are the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA), Flood Impact Assessment (HEC-FIA), and Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) United States Multi-Hazard (Hazus-MH). All of which exist only in a desktop environment. With this

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

Flood-frequency analyses from paleoflood investigations for Spring, Rapid, Boxelder, and Elk Creeks, Black Hills, western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Stamm, John F.

2011-01-01

Flood-frequency analyses for the Black Hills area are important because of severe flooding of June 9-10, 1972, that was caused by a large mesoscale convective system and caused at least 238 deaths. Many 1972 peak flows are high outliers (by factors of 10 or more) in observed records that date to the early 1900s. An efficient means of reducing uncertainties for flood recurrence is to augment gaged records by using paleohydrologic techniques to determine ages and magnitudes of prior large floods (paleofloods). This report summarizes results of paleoflood investigations for Spring Creek, Rapid Creek (two reaches), Boxelder Creek (two subreaches), and Elk Creek. Stratigraphic records and resulting long-term flood chronologies, locally extending more than 2,000 years, were combined with observed and adjusted peak-flow values (gaged records) and historical flood information to derive flood-frequency estimates for the six study reaches. Results indicate that (1) floods as large as and even substantially larger than 1972 have affected most of the study reaches, and (2) incorporation of the paleohydrologic information substantially reduced uncertainties in estimating flood recurrence. Canyons within outcrops of Paleozoic rocks along the eastern flanks of the Black Hills provided excellent environments for (1) deposition and preservation of stratigraphic sequences of late-Holocene flood deposits, primarily in protected slack-water settings flanking the streams; and (2) hydraulic analyses for determination of associated flow magnitudes. The bedrock canyons ensure long-term stability of channel and valley geometry, thereby increasing confidence in hydraulic computations of ancient floods from modern channel geometry. Stratigraphic records of flood sequences, in combination with deposit dating by radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and cesium-137, provided paleoflood chronologies for 29 individual study sites. Flow magnitudes were estimated from elevations of flood

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beckman, Emil W.

1976-01-01

Observed maximum flood peaks at 303 gaging stations with 13 or more years of record and significant peaks at 57 short-term stations and 31 miscellaneous sites are useful in designing flood-control works for maximum safety from flood damage. Comparison is made with maximum observed floods in the United States.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 3-A, Ohio River Basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speer, Paul R.; Gamble, Charles R.

1965-01-01

This report presents a means of determining the probable magnitude and frequency of floods of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years at most points on streams in the Ohio River basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River basins. Curves are defined that show the relation between the drainage area and the mean annual flood in eight hydrologic areas, and composite frequency curves define the relation of a flood of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years to the mean annual flood. These two relations are based upon gaging-station records having 10 or more years of record not materially affected by storage or diversion, and the results obtainable from them will represent the magnitude and frequency of natural floods within the range and recurrence intervals defined by the base data. The report also contains a compilation of flood records at all sites in the area at which records have been collected for 5 or more consecutive years. As far as was possible at each location for which discharge has been determined, the tabulations include all floods above a selected base. Where only gage heights have been obtained or where the data did not warrant computation of peach discharges above a selected base, only annual peaks are shown. The maximum known flood discharges for the streamflow stations and miscellaneous points except Ohio River main stem stations, together with areal floods of 10- and 50-year recurrence intervals, are plotted against the size of drainage area for each flood region and hydrologic area to provide a convenient means of judging the frequency of the maximum known floods that have been recorded for these points.

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

Policy tenure under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

PubMed

Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine; Kunreuther, Howard

2012-04-01

In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001-2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners' inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk-reduction measures. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

NEW STUDIES OF URBAN FLOOD FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1986-01-01

Five reports dealing with flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas in the southeastern United States have been published during the past 2 years by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). These reports are based on data collected in Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; and several cities in Alabama and Tennessee. Each report contains regression equations useful for estimating flood peaks for selected recurrence intervals at ungauged urban sites. A nationwide study of urban flood characteristics by the USGS published in 1983 contains equations for estimating urban peak discharges for ungauged sites. At the time that the nationwide study was conducted, data from only 35 sites in the southeastern United States were available. The five new reports contain data for 88 additional sites. These new data show that the seven-parameter estimating equations developed in the nationwide study are unbiased and have prediction errors less than those described in the nationwide report.

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood

Flood Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

Extending the flood record on the Middle Gila River with Holocene stratigraphy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huckleberry, G.

1993-04-01

Historical changes in flood frequency and magnitude are correlated to changes in channel geometry for the Middle Gila River (MGR) in south-central Arizona. The author has attempted to reconstruct the frequency of large floods on the MGR for the last 1,000 years by looking at the stratigraphic record with the purpose of modeling channel changes during a period of significant local cultural change, i.e., the Hohokam-Pima cultural transition. After distinguishing and mapping geological surfaces in the eastern part of the Gila River Indian Community. The author placed a series of backhoe trenches on late Holocene MGR terraces. He interprets lithologicalmore » discontinuities within overbank deposits as boundaries separating temporally discrete floods. Detrital charcoal from within the stratigraphy was submitted to the National Science Foundation-University of Arizona AMS facility for radiocarbon analysis. The stratigraphic record indicates that a minimum of four large floods have occurred on the MGR since A.D. 1300. Three of these floods may correspond to large historical floods in 1833, 1868, and 1905. If so, then it appears that MGR flood frequency increased after A.D. 1800. There is no evidence for increased flood frequency and channel transformations during the cultural decline of the Hohokam in the 15th century.« less

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 1-B, North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tice, Richard H.

1968-01-01

Flood magnitude-frequency relation applicable to streams in the North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River, Va., are presented in this report.  The relations are based on flood data collected at 487 gaging stations having 5 or more years of record not materially affected by regulation. For sites on most streams, the magnitude of a flood of any given frequency between 1.1 and 50 years can be determined from two curves - one expressing the relation between the mean annual flood and size of draining basin and the other expressing the ratio to the mean annual flood of floods of other recurrence intervals. For New Jersey streams, an adjustment to the mean annual flood is based on the percentage of surface area covered by lakes and swamps in the basin.

Experiences from coordinated national-level landslide and flood forecasting in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krøgli, Ingeborg; Fleig, Anne; Glad, Per; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé

2015-04-01

While flood forecasting at national level is quite well established and operational in many countries worldwide, landslide forecasting at national level is still seldom. Examples of coordinated flood and landslide forecasting are even rarer. Most of the time flood and landslide forecasters work separately (investigating, defining thresholds, and developing models) and most of the time without communication with each other. One example of coordinated operational early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides is found at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in Norway. In this presentation we give an introduction to the two separate but tightly collaborative EWSs and to the coordination of these. The two EWSs are being operated from the same office, every day using similar hydro-meteorological prognosis and hydrological models. Prognosis and model outputs on e.g. discharge, snow melt, soil water content and exceeded landslide thresholds are evaluated in a web based decision-making tool (xgeo.no). The experts performing forecasts are hydrologists, geologists and physical geographers. A similar warning scale, based on colors (green, yellow, orange and red) is used for both EWSs, however thresholds for flood and landslide warning levels are defined differently. Also warning areas may not necessary be the same for both hazards and depending on the specific meteorological event, duration of the warning periods can differ. We present how knowledge, models and tools, but also human and economic resources are being shared between the two EWSs. Moreover, we discuss challenges faced in the communication of warning messages using recent flood and landslide events as examples.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

2010-05-01

During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the

Magnitude and frequency of floods in small drainage basins in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Harenberg, W.A.; Anderson, J.M.

1973-01-01

A method is presented in this report for determining magnitude and frequency of floods on streams with drainage areas between 0.5 and 200 square miles. The method relates basin characteristics, including drainage area, percentage of forest cover, percentage of water area, latitude, and longitude, with peak flow characteristics. Regression equations for each of eight regions are presented for determination of QIQ/ the peak discharge, which, on the average, will be exceeded once in 10 years. Peak flows, Q25 and Q 50 , can then be estimated from Q25/Q10 and Q-50/Q-10 ratios developed for each region. Nomographs are included which solve the equations for basins between 1 and 50 square miles. The regional regression equations were developed using multiple regression techniques. Annual peaks for 303 sites were analyzed in the study. These included all records on unregulated streams with drainage areas less than about 500 square miles with 10 years or more of record or which could readily be extended to 10 years on the basis of nearby streams. The log-Pearson Type III method as modified and a digital computer were employed to estimate magnitude and frequency of floods for each of the 303 gaged sites. A large number of physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each of the gaged sites. The multiple regression method was then applied to determine the equations relating the floodflows and the most significant basin characteristics. For convenience of the users, several equations were simplified and some complex characteristics were deleted at the sacrifice of some increase in the standard error. Standard errors of estimate and many other statistical data were computed in the analysis process and are available in the Boise district office files. The analysis showed that QIQ was the best defined and most practical index flood for determination of the Q25 and 0,50 flood estimates.Regression equations are not developed because of poor definition for areas

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro; Gioia, Andrea; Manfreda, Salvatore

2010-05-01

the field of statistical hydrology, the role of procedures for parameters estimation and techniques for model selection in the case of nested distributions. References Gioia, A., V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, M. Fiorentino, Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1295-1307, 2008. Iacobellis, V., and M. Fiorentino (2000), Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal, Water Resour. Res., 36(2), 469-482. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.: IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857-880, 2003.

Flood discharges and hydraulics near the mouths of Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.

1994-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, studied the frequency and magnitude of flooding near the mouths of five tributaries to the New River in the New River Gorge National River. The 100-year peak discharge at each tributary was determined from regional frequency equations. The 100-year discharge at Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek was 3,400 cubic feet per second, 640 cubic feet per second, 8,200 cubic feet per second, 7,100 cubic feet per second, and 9,400 cubic feet per second, respectively. Flood elevations for each tributary were determined by application of a steady-state, one-dimensional flow model. Manning's roughness coefficients for the stream channels ranged from 0.040 to 0.100. Bridges that would be unable to contain the 100-year flood within the bridge opening included: the State Highway 82 bridge on Wolf Creek, the second Fayette County Highway 25 bridge upstream from the confluence with New River on Dunloup Creek, and an abandoned log bridge on Mill Creek.

Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams : final report, June 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The objective of this project was to assess the predictive accuracy of flood frequency estimation for small Iowa streams based : on the Rational Method, the NRCS curve number approach, and the Iowa Runoff Chart. The evaluation was based on : comparis...

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Flood-frequency prediction methods for unregulated streams of Tennessee, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.; Tasker, Gary D.

2003-01-01

Up-to-date flood-frequency prediction methods for unregulated, ungaged rivers and streams of Tennessee have been developed. Prediction methods include the regional-regression method and the newer region-of-influence method. The prediction methods were developed using stream-gage records from unregulated streams draining basins having from 1 percent to about 30 percent total impervious area. These methods, however, should not be used in heavily developed or storm-sewered basins with impervious areas greater than 10 percent. The methods can be used to estimate 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods of most unregulated rural streams in Tennessee. A computer application was developed that automates the calculation of flood frequency for unregulated, ungaged rivers and streams of Tennessee. Regional-regression equations were derived by using both single-variable and multivariable regional-regression analysis. Contributing drainage area is the explanatory variable used in the single-variable equations. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and a climate factor are the explanatory variables used in the multivariable equations. Deleted-residual standard error for the single-variable equations ranged from 32 to 65 percent. Deleted-residual standard error for the multivariable equations ranged from 31 to 63 percent. These equations are included in the computer application to allow easy comparison of results produced by the different methods. The region-of-influence method calculates multivariable regression equations for each ungaged site and recurrence interval using basin characteristics from 60 similar sites selected from the study area. Explanatory variables that may be used in regression equations computed by the region-of-influence method include contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, a climate factor, and a physiographic-region factor. Deleted-residual standard error for the region-of-influence method tended to be only

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Bivariate at-site frequency analysis of simulated flood peak-volume data using copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Viglione, Alberto; Szolgay, Ján.; Blöschl, Günter; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡

2010-05-01

In frequency analysis of joint hydro-climatological extremes (flood peaks and volumes, low flows and durations, etc.), usually, bivariate distribution functions are fitted to the observed data in order to estimate the probability of their occurrence. Bivariate models, however, have a number of limitations; therefore, in the recent past, dependence models based on copulas have gained increased attention to represent the joint probabilities of hydrological characteristics. Regardless of whether standard or copula based bivariate frequency analysis is carried out, one is generally interested in the extremes corresponding to low probabilities of the fitted joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). However, usually there is not enough flood data in the right tail of the empirical CDFs to derive reliable statistical inferences on the behaviour of the extremes. Therefore, different techniques are used to extend the amount of information for the statistical inference, i.e., temporal extension methods that allow for making use of historical data or spatial extension methods such as regional approaches. In this study, a different approach was adopted which uses simulated flood data by rainfall-runoff modelling, to increase the amount of data in the right tail of the CDFs. In order to generate artificial runoff data (i.e. to simulate flood records of lengths of approximately 106 years), a two-step procedure was used. (i) First, the stochastic rainfall generator proposed by Sivapalan et al. (2005) was modified for our purpose. This model is based on the assumption of discrete rainfall events whose arrival times, durations, mean rainfall intensity and the within-storm intensity patterns are all random, and can be described by specified distributions. The mean storm rainfall intensity is disaggregated further to hourly intensity patterns. (ii) Secondly, the simulated rainfall data entered a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a snow routine

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the

Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Parrett, Charles

2012-01-01

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in California that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversions have been updated. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for 771 streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in California having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the flood-frequency analysis, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low outliers. Special methods for fitting the distribution were developed for streamgages in the desert region in southeastern California. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins in California that are outside of the southeastern desert region. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 630 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for the area of California outside of the desert region. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation for four of the five regions. In one region, the Sierra Nevada region, the final equations are functions of drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations in all five regions range from 42.7 to 161.9 percent. For the desert region of California, an analysis of 33 streamgages was used to develop regional estimates

Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Urban and Small Rural Streams in Georgia, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Knaak, Andrew E.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted that updated methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in ungaged urban basins in Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations. Annual peak-flow data for urban streams from September 2008 were analyzed for 50 streamgaging stations (streamgages) in Georgia and 6 streamgages on adjacent urban streams in Florida and South Carolina having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 56 urban streamgages by fitting logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage to a Pearson Type III distribution. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system and computer algorithms. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged urban basins in Georgia. In addition to the 56 urban streamgages, 171 rural streamgages were included in the regression analysis to maintain continuity between flood estimates for urban and rural basins as the basin characteristics pertaining to urbanization approach zero. Because 21 of the rural streamgages have drainage areas less than 1 square mile, the set of equations developed for this study can also be used for estimating small ungaged rural streams in Georgia. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 227 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Four hydrologic regions were developed for Georgia. The final equations are functions of drainage area and percentage of impervious area for three of the regions and drainage area, percentage of developed land, and mean basin slope for the fourth region. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 20.0 to 74.5 percent.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual - Agricultural Flood Damage,

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-01

based on the conceptual framework of the Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation...the planning process and the NED evaluacion ’- ". procedures for agriculture, as described in the P&G, are thei presented. Also identified are some...ood Ioss compu t at ion approach de ’(’ op4 t hie f I ond damage for hypothetical frequency flood events and weights the result to I V- II1. + . IV-11

77 FR 23270 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request, National Flood...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... information collection that allows the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to facilitate the availability of flood insurance to those who have a need to purchase such. The NFIP will collect information from... available by the NFIP would be adversely affected. DATES: Comments must be submitted on or before June 18...

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures that are in or near streams (fig. 1 for example), it is necessary to determine the magnitude of peak streamflows such as the 100-year flow. Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak flows for selected recurrence intervals (100 years, for example). The recurrence interval is the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Floodfrequency analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that annual peak streamflows are stationary over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to urbanization, regulation, and other direct human activities. Stationarity is the concept that natural systems fluctuate within an envelope of variability that does not change over time (Milly and others, 2008). Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned (Milly and others, 2008). Maine has many streamgaging stations with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. This long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency (Hodgkins, 2010). This fact sheet, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), provides a partial summary of the results of the study by Hodgkins (2010).

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Comparison of the 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods computed from observed data with the 1995 urban flood-frequency estimating equations for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1997-01-01

Flood-frequency relations were computed for 28 urban stations, for 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods and the computations were compared to corresponding recurrence interval floods computed from the estimating equations from a 1995 investigation. Two stations were excluded from further comparisons or analyses because neither station had a significant flood during the period of observed record. The comparisons, based on the student's t-test statistics at the 0.05 level of significance, indicate that the mean residuals of the 25- and 100-year floods were negatively biased by 26.2 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, at the 26 stations. However, the mean residuals of the 2-year floods were 2.5 percent lower than the mean of the 2-year floods computed from the equations, and were not significantly biased. The reason for this negative bias is that the period of observed record at the 26 stations was a relatively dry period. At 25 of the 26 stations, the two highest simulated peaks used to develop the estimating equations occurred many years before the observed record began. However, no attempt was made to adjust the estimating equations because higher peaks could occur after the period of observed record and an adjustment to the equations would cause an underestimation of design floods.

National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

1991-01-01

National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Understanding high magnitude flood risk: evidence from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.

2009-04-01

The average length of gauged river flow records in the UK is ~25 years, which presents a problem in determining flood risk for high-magnitude flood events. Severe floods have been recorded in many UK catchments during the past 10 years, increasing the uncertainty in conventional flood risk estimates based on river flow records. Current uncertainty in flood risk has implications for society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and water resource managers (flood/drought risk). An alternative approach is required which can improve current understanding of the flood frequency/magnitude relationship. Historical documentary accounts are now recognised as a valuable resource when considering the flood frequency/magnitude relationship, but little consideration has been given to the temporal and spatial distribution of these records. Building on previous research based on British rivers (urban centre): Ouse (York), Trent (Nottingham), Tay (Perth), Severn (Shrewsbury), Dee (Chester), Great Ouse (Cambridge), Sussex Ouse (Lewes), Thames (Oxford), Tweed (Kelso) and Tyne (Hexham), this work considers the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flooding. The selected sites provide a network covering many of the largest river catchments in Britain, based on urban centres with long detailed documentary flood histories. The chronologies offer an opportunity to assess long-term patterns of flooding, indirectly determining periods of climatic variability and potentially increased geomorphic activity. This research represents the first coherent large scale analysis undertaken of historical multi-catchment flood chronologies, providing an unparalleled network of sites, permitting analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flood patterns on a national scale.

The influence of flood frequency, riparian vegetation and threshold on long-term river transport capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

2016-04-01

Climate fluctuations at geological timescales control the capacity of rivers to transport sediment with consequences on geochemical cycles, sedimentary basins dynamics and sedimentation/tectonics interactions. While the impact of differential friction generated by riparian vegetation has been studied for individual flood events, its impact on the long-term sediment transport capacity of rivers, modulated by the frequency of floods remains unknown. Here, we investigate this effect on a simplified river-floodplain configuration obeying observed hydraulic scaling laws. We numerically integrate the full-frequency magnitude distribution of discharge events and its impact on the transport capacity of bedload and suspended material for various level of vegetation-linked differential friction. We demonstrate that riparian vegetation by acting as a virtual confinement of the flow i) increases significantly the instantaneous transport capacity of the river independently of the transport mode and ii) increases the long term bedload transport rates as a function of discharge variability. Our results expose the dominance of flood frequency rather than riparian vegetation on the long term sediment transport capacity. Therefore, flood frequency has to be considered when evaluating long-term bedload transport capacity while floodplain vegetation is important only in high discharge variability regimes. By comparing the transport capacity of unconfined alluvial rivers and confined bedrock gorges, we demonstrate that the latter always presents the highest long term transport capacity at equivalent width and slope. The loss of confinement at the transition between bedrock and alluvial river must be compensated by a widening or a steepening of the alluvial channel to avoid infinite storage. Because steepening is never observed in natural system, we compute the alluvial widening factor value that varies between 3 to 11 times the width of the bedrock channel depending on riparian

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards

Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

2018-05-01

The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

6-kyr record of flood frequency and intensity in the western Mediterranean Alps - Interplay of solar and temperature forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatier, Pierre; Wilhelm, Bruno; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Moiroux, Fanny; Poulenard, Jérôme; Develle, Anne-Lise; Bichet, Adeline; Chen, Wentao; Pignol, Cécile; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Gielly, Ludovic; Bajard, Manon; Perrette, Yves; Malet, Emmanuel; Taberlet, Pierre; Arnaud, Fabien

2017-08-01

The high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a sediment sequence from Lake Savine (Western Mediterranean Alps, France) led to the identification of 220 event layers for the last 6000 years. 200 were triggered by flood events and 20 by underwater mass movements possibly related to earthquakes that occurred in 5 clusters of increase seismicity. Because human activity could influence the flood chronicle, the presence of pastures was reconstructed through ancient DNA, which suggested that the flood chronicle was mainly driven by hydroclimate variability. Weather reanalysis of historical floods allow to identify that mesoscale precipitation events called "East Return" events were the main triggers of floods recorded in Lake Savine. The first part of this palaeoflood record (6-4 kyr BP) was characterized by increases in flood frequency and intensity in phase with Northern Alpine palaeoflood records. By contrast, the second part of the record (i.e., since 4 kyr BP) was phased with Southern Alpine palaeoflood records. These results suggest a palaeohydrological transition at approximately 4 kyr BP, as has been previously described for the Mediterranean region. This may have resulted in a change of flood-prone hydro-meteorological processes, i.e., in the balance between occurrence and intensity of local convective climatic phenomena and their influence on Mediterranean mesoscale precipitation events in this part of the Alps. At a centennial timescale, increases in flood frequency and intensity corresponded to periods of solar minima, affecting climate through atmospheric changes in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

Flooding and Flood Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

2017-04-01

Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006: Volume 2, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis; Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2009-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. In North Carolina, annual peak-flow data available through September 2006 were available for 584 sites; 402 of these sites had a total of 10 or more years of systematic record that is required for at-site, flood-frequency analysis. Following data reviews and the computation of 20 physical and climatic basin characteristics for each station as well as at-site flood-frequency statistics, annual peak-flow data were identified for 363 sites in North Carolina suitable for use in this analysis. Among these 363 sites, 19 sites had records that could be divided into unregulated and regulated/ channelized annual peak discharges, which means peak-flow records were identified for a total of 382 cases in North Carolina. Considering the 382 cases, at-site flood-frequency statistics are provided for 333 unregulated cases (also used for the regression database) and 49 regulated/channelized cases. The flood-frequency statistics for the 333 unregulated sites were combined with data for sites from South Carolina, Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia to create a database of 943 sites considered for use in the regional regression analysis. Flood-frequency statistics were computed by fitting logarithms (base 10) of the annual peak flows to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation process, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, Kathleen M.; DelCharco, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, S. E.; Strupczewski, W. G.; Bogdanowicz, E.

2017-08-01

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with non-stationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled "Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis".

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, Robert D.; Tomlinson, Edward M.

2000-01-01

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10−3 to 10−7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [National Research Council, 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [Tomlinson and Solak, 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km2) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km2. Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m3 s−1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m3 s−1. Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the

Flooding in Illinois, April-June 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Avery, Charles; Smith, D.F.

2002-01-01

Widespread flooding occurred throughout most of Illinois in spring 2002 as a result of multiple intense rainstorms that moved through the State during an extended 2-month period from the third week in April through the month of May in central and southern Illinois, the first week in June in northern Illinois, and the second week in June in west-central Illinois. The scale of flooding was highly variable in time and intensity throughout the State. A Federal disaster was declared for central and southern Illinois to deal with the extensive damage incurred during the severe weather, and to provide emergency aid relief. Discharge and stage records for the flood periods described above are presented for 193 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Illinois and in drainages just upstream of the State. New maximum instantaneous discharge was recorded at 12 stations during this flood period, and new maximum stage was recorded at 15 stations. Flood stage was exceeded for at least 1 day during this 2-month period at 67 of the 82 stations with established flood-stage elevations given by the National Weather Service. Of the 162 streamflowgaging stations with an established flood-frequency distribution, a 5-year or greater flood discharge was recorded at 87 stations, and a 100-year or greater flood discharge occurred at six stations.

Extent and frequency of inundation of Schuylkill River flood plain from Conshohocken to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alter, A.T.

1966-01-01

Information on flood conditions plays an important part in the development and use of river valleys. This report presents maps, profiles, and flood-frequency relations developed from past flood experience on the Schuylkill River from Conshohocken to Philadelphia, Pa. The maps and profiles are used to define the areal extent and depth of flooding of the August 24, 1933, and August 19, 1955, floods. The flood of October 4, 1869, which is the greatest flood known on the lower Schuylkill River, is presented on the flood profile and on the ten cross sections. The area inundated by the 1869 flood is not defined because insufficient data are available and because hydrologic and hydraulic conditions have undoubtedly changed to such an extent that such a definition would have little present significance. The basic flood data were prepared to aid individuals, organizations, and governmental agencies in making sound decisions for the safe and economical development of the lower Schuylkill River valley. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made in this report.The responsibility for planning for the optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with the State and local interests. The preparation of this report was undertaken after consultation with representatives of the Philadelphia City Planning Commission and the Montgomery County Planning Commission who expressed the need for flood-plain information and their willingness to consider floodplain regulations.The area covered by this report extends downstream along the Schuylkill River from Plymouth Dam in Conshohocken to the mouth of Wissahickon Creek in Philadelphia. Flooding along Wissahickon Creek is not included in the report. The reach studied extends from 13.0 miles to 21.0 miles upstream from the river mouth. All river distances used in the report are river miles upstream from the mouth of the

Floods in the United States: Magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarvis, Clarence S.; ,

1936-01-01

From time immemorial floods have transformed beneficent river waters into a menace to humanity. Man's progress toward economic stability has been repeatedly halted or even thrown backward by the interruption of his efforts to make effective use of rivers and of valley lands. This handicap is not imposed by the destructiveness of large rivers alone, or of rivers in widely separated areas, for there are few if any streams, brooks, or rivulets that are not subject to flows beyond their channel capacities. Yet, though man for ages has suffered seriously from recurring floods, he has not been deterred from continuing to extend his activities in areas that are virtually foredoomed to flood damage.Today in the United States serious floods may occur in any section in any year, and even, in some regions, several times a year. Many of these floods leave behind them the tragedy of death and disease and of property irreparably damaged. The aggregate direct property damage caused by floods in this country has been estimated roughly to average $35,000,000 a year. In addition there are serious indirect and intangible losses of great but not precisely calculable magnitude.

Mortality from flash floods: a review of national weather service reports, 1969-81.

PubMed Central

French, J; Ing, R; Von Allmen, S; Wood, R

1983-01-01

Of all weather-related disasters that occur in the United States, floods are the main cause of death, and most flood-related deaths are attributed to flash floods. Whenever a weather-related disaster involves 30 or more deaths or more than $100 million in property damage, the National Weather Service (NWS) forms a survey team to investigate the disaster and write a report of findings. All NWS survey reports on flash floods issued during 1969-81 were reviewed to determine the mortality resulting from such floods, the effect of warnings on mortality, and the circumstances contributing to death. A total of 1,185 deaths were associated with 32 flash floods, an average of 37 deaths per flash flood. The highest average number of deaths per event was associated with the four flash floods in which dams broke after heavy rains. Although there were 18 flash floods in 1977-81 and only 14 in 1969-76, the number of deaths was 2 1/2 times greater during the earlier period. More than twice as many deaths were associated with flash floods for which the survey team considered the warnings inadequate than with those with warnings considered adequate. Ninety-three percent of the deaths were due to drowning and 42 percent of these drownings were car related. The other drownings occurred in homes, at campsites, or when persons were crossing bridges and streams. The need for monitoring dams during periods of heavy rainfall is highlighted. PMID:6419273

Peak Discharge, Flood Frequency, and Peak Stage of Floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 Near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at ...

Peak-flow frequency and extreme flood potential for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

1996-01-01

The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River are in an area periodically threatened by large storms and floods. Many storms exceeding 10 inches (in.) in depth have been documented in the area, including some with depths approaching 40 in. These storms typically produce large peak discharges that often threaten lives and property. The storms sometimes occur with little warning. Steep stream slopes and thin soils characteristic of the area often cause large peak discharges and rapid movement of floods through watersheds. A procedure to predict the discharge associated with large floods is needed for the area so that appropriate peak discharges can be used in the design of flood plains, bridges, and other structures.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), studied flood peaks for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes of central Texas. The Highland Lakes are a series of reservoirs constructed on the Colorado River. The chain of lakes (and year each was completed) comprises Lake Buchanan (1937), Inks Lake (1938), Lake Lyndon B. Johnson (1950), Lake Marble Falls (1951), Lake Travis (1942), and lake Austin (1890). The study area (fig. 1), which includes all or parts of 21 counties in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, was selected because most streams in the area have flood characteristics similar to streams entering the Highland Lakes. The entire study area is in a region subject to large storms.The purpose of this report is to present (1) peak-flow frequency data for stations and equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, and (2) a technique to estimate the extreme flood peak discharges for the large streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes. Peak-flow frequency in this report refers to the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2,5, 10,25,50, and 100 years. A large stream is defined as having a contributing drainage

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska

Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-06-14

Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska

PubMed Central

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID

The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.

PubMed

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.

44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false National Flood Insurance Program B Appendix B to Part 62 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY... Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)) may enter into an arrangement with individual private sector insurance...

New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

2015-04-01

Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez, M.A.; Woodham, W.M.

1983-01-01

Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

Duration and Frequency Analysis of Lowland Flooding in Western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee, 1998-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.

2002-01-01

Periodic flooding occurs at lowlands and sinkholes in and adjacent to the flood plain of the West Fork Stones River in the western part of Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Flooding in this area commonly occurs during the winter months from December through March. The maximum water level that flood waters will reach in a lowland or sinkhole is controlled by the elevation of the land surrounding the site or the overflow outlet. Maximum water levels, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated to be reached in lowlands and sinkholes in the study area every 1 to 4 years. Minor overflow from the West Fork Stones River (less than 1 foot in depth) into the study area has been estimated to occur every 10 to 20 years. Moderate overflow from the river (1 to 2 feet in depth) occurs on average every 20 to 50 years, while major river overflow (in excess of 2 feet in depth) can be expected every 50 years. Rainfall information for the area, and streamflow and water-level measurements from the West Fork Stones River, lowlands, sinkholes, caves, and wells in the study area were used to develop a flood-prone area map, independent of overflow from the river, for the study area. Water-level duration and frequency relations, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated for several lowlands, sinkholes, and wells in the study area. These relations are used to characterize flooding in lowland areas of western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee.

44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false National Flood Insurance Program B Appendix B to Part 62 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY... Plan to Maintain Financial Control for Business Written Under the Write Your Own Program. (a) In...

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural basins of South Carolina, 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Tasker, Gary D.

2002-01-01

Data from 167 streamflow-gaging stations in or near South Carolina with 10 or more years of record through September 30, 1999, were used to develop two methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in South Carolina for rural ungaged basins that are not significantly affected by regulation. Flood frequency estimates for 54 gaged sites in South Carolina were computed by fitting the water-year peak flows for each site to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for gaged sites, new values for generalized skew coefficients were developed. Flood-frequency analyses also were made for gaging stations that drain basins from more than one physiographic province. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation, updated these data from previous flood-frequency reports to aid officials who are active in floodplain management as well as those who design bridges, culverts, and levees, or other structures near streams where flooding is likely to occur. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, upper Coastal Plain, and lower Coastal Plain physiographic provinces of South Carolina. The predictive equations are all functions of drainage area. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations ranged from -16 to 19 percent for the 2-year recurrence-interval flow in the upper Coastal Plain to -34 to 52 percent for the 500-year recurrence interval flow in the lower Coastal Plain. A region-of-influence method also was developed that interactively estimates recurrence- interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge of South Carolina. The region-of-influence method uses regression techniques to develop a unique

Flooding and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

2011-01-01

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

The Sensetivity of Flood Frequency Analysis on Record Length in Continuous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, L.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA), sufficiently long data series are important to get more reliable results. Compared to return periods of interest, at-site FFA usually needs large data sets. Generally, the precision of at site estimators and time-sampling errors are associated with the length of a gauged record. In this work, we quantify the difference with various record lengths. we use generalized extreme value (GEV) and Log Pearson type III (LP3), two traditional methods on annual maximum stream flows to undertake FFA, and propose quantitative ways, relative difference in median and interquartile range (IQR) to compare the flood frequency performances on different record length from selected 350 USGS gauges, which have more than 70 years record length in Continuous United States. Also, we group those gauges into different regions separately based on hydrological unit map and discuss the geometry impacts. The results indicate that long record length can avoid imposing an upper limit on the degree of sophistication. Working with relatively longer record length may lead accurate results than working with shorter record length. Furthermore, the influence of hydrologic unites for the watershed boundary dataset on those gauges also be presented. The California region is the most sensitive to record length, while gauges in the east perform steady.

Flooding and Atmospheric Rivers across the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Barth, N. A.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis across the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood agents, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. Bulletin17B and its proposed update (Draft Bulletin 17C) continue to recognize difficulties in determining flood frequency estimates among streamflow records that contain flood peaks coming from different flood-generating mechanisms, as is the case in the western United States. They recommend developing separate frequency curves when the hydrometeorologic mechanisms that generated the annual peak flows can be separated into distinct subpopulations. Yet challenges arise when trying to consistently quantify the physical (hydrometeorologic) processes that generated the observed flows, and even more when trying to account for them in flood frequency estimation. This study provides a general statistical framework to perform a process-driven flood frequency analysis using a weighted mixed population approach, highlighting the role that ARs play on the flood peak distribution.

Estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for selected flood frequencies on small streams in South Carolina (1975)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whetstone, B.H.

1982-01-01

A program to collect and analyze flood data from small streams in South Carolina was conducted from 1967-75, as a cooperative research project with the South Carolina Department of Highways and Public Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. As a result of that program, a technique is presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in South Carolina with drainage areas ranging in size from 1 to 500 square miles. Peak-discharge data from 74 stream-gaging stations (25 small streams were synthesized, whereas 49 stations had long-term records) were used in multiple regression procedures to obtain equations for estimating magnitude of floods having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years on small natural streams. The significant independent variable was drainage area. Equations were developed for the three physiographic provinces of South Carolina (Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge) and can be used for estimating floods on small streams. (USGS)

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same

Lake Sediments show the Frequency of 21st Century Extreme Flooding in the UK is Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiverrell, R. C.; Sear, D. A.; Warburton, J.; Macdonald, N.; Schillereff, D. N.; Dearing, J.; Croudace, I. W. C.

2016-12-01

Flooding in northwest England has been reconstructed from the coarse grained units preserved in lake sediment sequences at Bassenthwaite Lake, a record that includes the floods of December 2015 (Storm Desmond) and November 2009 and shows they were the most extreme in over 600 years. The inception and propagation of a lake sediment flood event horizon in the aftermath of the December 2015 storms in the UK has been explored as part of NERC Urgency Grant that focuses on Bassenthwaite Lake, Brotherswater, Buttermere and Ullswater. Our approach involves repeat coring of locations over 6-12 months, sediment trapping, and testing how this recent extreme event has settled into the sediment record. For Bassenthwaite Lake linking our new sediment palaeoflood series to river discharges, provides the first assessment of flood frequency and magnitude based on lake sediments for the UK. We show that recent devastating flooding in NW England in 2009 was the largest event in 415 years, had a recurrence interval far larger (1:9000 year) than conventional analysis based on short term records suggest (1:700 year), and occurred during a cluster of floods that is unprecedented in 600 years. Particle size characteristics of flood laminations, after correction for variations in the stability of catchment sediment sources, were correlated on a hydrodynamic basis with recorded river flows. The particle size flood record is underpinned by a robust chronology to CE 1420 derived from radionuclide (Pb210, Am241, and Cs137) dating and correlations to the rich history of metal (Pb, Zn, Ba and Cu) mining in the catchment accurately recorded in the sediment geochemistry. The sediment palaeoflood series reveals five flood rich periods (CE 1460-1500, 1580-1680, 1780-1820, 1850-1925, 1970-present), and these correspond with positive phases of reconstructed winter NAOI and other Atlantic circulation patterns. The hydro-climatology of the extreme events (top 1% of floods) in our series, show that 67

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

2017-11-01

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with

Precipitation-runoff, suspended-sediment, and flood-frequency characteristics for urbanized areas of Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1999-01-01

The developed part of Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage, Alaska, consists of two basins with drainage areas of 4.0 and 0.64 square miles, respectively. Runoff and suspended-sediment data were collected from August 1996 to March 1998 to gain a basic understanding of the surface-water hydrology of these areas and to estimate flood-frequency characteristics. Runoff from the larger basin averaged 6 percent of rainfall, whereas runoff from the smaller basin averaged 13 percent of rainfall. During rainfall periods, the suspended-sediment load transported from the larger watershed ranged from 179 to 21,000 pounds and that from the smaller watershed ranged from 23 to 18,200 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment from the larger watershed was 78 pounds per inch of runoff and from the smaller basin was 100 pounds per inch of runoff. Suspended-sediment loads and yields were generally lower during snowmelt periods than during rainfall periods. At each outfall of the two watersheds, water flows into steep natural channels. Suspended-sediment loads measured approximately 1,000 feet downstream from the outfalls during rainfall periods ranged from 8,450 to 530,000 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment averaged 705 pounds per inch of runoff, more than three times as much as the combined sediment yield from the two watersheds. The increase in suspended sediment is most likely due to natural erosion of the streambanks. Streamflow data, collected in 1996 and 1997, were used to calibrate and verify a U.S. Geological Survey computer model?the Distributed Routing Rainfall Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II). The model was then used to simulate annual peak discharges and runoff volumes for 1981 to 1995 using historical rainfall records. Because the model indicated that surcharging (or ponding) would occur, no flood-frequency analysis was done for peak discharges. A flood-frequency analysis of flood volumes indicated that a 10-year flood would result in 0.39 inch of runoff

76 FR 70745 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request; National Flood...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-15

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID: FEMA-2011-0034...; National Flood Insurance Program--Mortgage Portfolio Protection Program AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Emergency Management Agency, as part of its...

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on the Myakka River, Southwest Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, K.M.; Turner, J.F.; Murphy, W.R.

1978-01-01

Increasing numbers of urban and agricultural developments are being located on waterfront property in the Myakka River flood plain in southwest Florida. Under natural conditions, a large depression, Tatum Sawgrass, was available as a flood storage area in the upper Myakka River basin. Construction of dikes across the lower part of Tatum Sawgrass has restricted use of the depression for temporary storage of Myakka River flood water overflow, and has resulted in increased flood-peak discharges and flood heights in downstream reaches of the Myakka River. The difference between natural and diked condition flood-peak discharges and flood heights is presented to illustrate the effects of the dikes. Flood-peak discharges, water-surface elevations and flood profiles also are provided for diked conditions. Analytical procedures used to evaluate diking effects are described in detail. The study reach includes Myakka River main stem upstream from U.S. Highway 41, near Myakka Shores in Sarasota County, to State Road 70 near Myakka City in Manatee County (including Tatum Sawgrass and Clay Gully), and Blackburn Canal from Venice By-Way to Myakka River. (Woodard-USGS)

76 FR 64361 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request; National Flood...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-18

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID: FEMA-2011-0029...; National Flood Insurance Program Claims Appeals Process AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Emergency Management Agency, as part of its continuing effort to...

Comparison of flood frequency estimates from synthetic and observed data on small drainage areas in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colson, B.E.

1986-01-01

In 1964 the U.S. Geological Survey in Mississippi expanded the small stream gaging network for collection of rainfall and runoff data to 92 stations. To expedite availability of flood frequency information a rainfall-runoff model using available long-term rainfall data was calibrated to synthesize flood peaks. Results obtained from observed annual peak flow data for 51 sites having 16 yr to 30 yr of annual peaks are compared with the synthetic results. Graphical comparison of the 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year flood discharges indicate good agreement. The root mean square error ranges from 27% to 38% and the synthetic record bias from -9% to -18% in comparison with the observed record. The reduced variance in the synthetic results is attributed to use of only four long-term rainfall records and model limitations. The root mean square error and bias is within the accuracy considered to be satisfactory. (Author 's abstract)

Looking at flood trends with different eyes: the value of a fuzzy flood classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Brunner, M. I.; Seibert, J.

2016-12-01

Natural floods can be governed by several processes such as heavy rainfall or intense snow- or glacier-melt. These processes result in different flood characteristics in terms of flood shape and magnitude. Pooling floods of different types might therefore impair the analyses of flood frequencies and trends. Thus, the categorization of flood events into different flood type classes and the determination of their respective frequencies is essential for a better understanding and for the prediction of floods. In reality however most flood events are caused by a mix of processes and a unique determination of a flood type per event often becomes difficult. This study proposes an innovative method for a more reliable categorization of floods according to similarities in flood drivers. The categorization of floods into subgroups relies on a fuzzy decision tree. While the classical (crisp) decision tree allows for the identification of only one flood type per event, the fuzzy approach enables the detection of mixed types. Hence, events are represented as a spectrum of six possible flood types, while a degree of acceptance attributed to each of them specifies the importance of each type during the event formation. Considered types are flash, short rainfall, long rainfall, snow-melt, rainfall-on-snow, and, in high altitude watersheds, also glacier-melt floods. The fuzzy concept also enables uncertainty present in the identification of flood processes and in the method to be incorporated into the flood categorization process. We demonstrate, for a set of nine Swiss watersheds and 30 years of observations, that this new concept provides more reliable flood estimates than the classical approach as it allows for a more dedicated flood prevention technique adapted to a specific flood type.

Interaction between Floods Occurrence and Gender and Age Structure of Population in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina; Kvach, Alena

2017-04-01

The high spring snow-melting or rainfall flooding is the most important and actual event in hydrological cycle for the territory of Belarus. It caused an inundation that means exceeding of water level in the river above safe line and water floods to the adjacent territories. Inundations led to significant destruction of adjoining territories, huge financial damage and threat for human being. The frequencies of spring flooding in Belarus is defined by intensity of river network, its morphometric characteristics and hydrometeorological conditions during the season before floods. The aim of the present study is to estimate the spatial distribution of flood inundation frequency and gender and age structure of national population which might be suffer under extreme phenomena on the rivers. We analysed dangerous thresholds in the river water levels and the frequency of floods of various severity within different river basins, quantity of men and women and their ratio, the quantity of people in the age upper 70 years old as a most sensitive to the flood risk group of population and ratio of rural houses to the entire housing resources as a most vulnerable infrastructure in the different regions of the country. During floods the dangerous levels which cause the inundation have been recorded in the 4 largest river basins passes the territory of Belarus. The most frequent inundations (every two years) occur in the south of the country in the Prypyat` river basin, and in the Dnepr river basin (every 4-5 years) on the majority of the rivers. The hypothesis of our study is that quantity of women population is higher in the flood risk regions (we defined 30 regions with highly frequent inundations) and their ratio high with the age. The majority of them live in potential flood dangerous regions. The strong connections between size of the river basin, its potential flood risk and quantity of population in the region was established. The ratio of men and women over country varied

Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giguet-Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; Enters, Dirk; Poulenard, Jérôme; Millet, Laurent; Francus, Pierre; David, Fernand; Rey, Pierre-Jérôme; Wilhelm, Bruno; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques

2012-01-01

In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.

A framework for multivariate data-based at-site flood frequency analysis: Essentiality of the conjugal application of parametric and nonparametric approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittal, H.; Singh, Jitendra; Kumar, Pankaj; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-06-01

In watershed management, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is performed to quantify the risk of flooding at different spatial locations and also to provide guidelines for determining the design periods of flood control structures. The traditional FFA was extensively performed by considering univariate scenario for both at-site and regional estimation of return periods. However, due to inherent mutual dependence of the flood variables or characteristics [i.e., peak flow (P), flood volume (V) and flood duration (D), which are random in nature], analysis has been further extended to multivariate scenario, with some restrictive assumptions. To overcome the assumption of same family of marginal density function for all flood variables, the concept of copula has been introduced. Although, the advancement from univariate to multivariate analyses drew formidable attention to the FFA research community, the basic limitation was that the analyses were performed with the implementation of only parametric family of distributions. The aim of the current study is to emphasize the importance of nonparametric approaches in the field of multivariate FFA; however, the nonparametric distribution may not always be a good-fit and capable of replacing well-implemented multivariate parametric and multivariate copula-based applications. Nevertheless, the potential of obtaining best-fit using nonparametric distributions might be improved because such distributions reproduce the sample's characteristics, resulting in more accurate estimations of the multivariate return period. Hence, the current study shows the importance of conjugating multivariate nonparametric approach with multivariate parametric and copula-based approaches, thereby results in a comprehensive framework for complete at-site FFA. Although the proposed framework is designed for at-site FFA, this approach can also be applied to regional FFA because regional estimations ideally include at-site estimations. The framework is

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

Applications of Experimental Suomi-NPP VIIRS Flood Inundation Maps in Operational Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweese, M. M.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most costly natural disaster across the globe. In 2016 flooding caused more fatalities than any other natural disaster in the United States. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is mandated to forecast rivers for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Since 2014, the NWS North Central River Forecast Center has utilized experimental near real time flood mapping products from the JPSS Suomi-NPP VIIRS satellite. These products have been demonstrated to provide reliable and high value information for forecasters in ice jam and snowmelt flooding in data sparse regions of the northern plains. In addition, they have proved valuable in rainfall induced flooding within the upper Mississippi River basin. Aerial photography and ground observations have validated the accuracy of the products. Examples are provided from numerous flooding events to demonstrate the operational application of this satellite derived information as a remotely sensed observational data source and it's utility in real time flood forecasting.

A Bayesian Surrogate for Regional Skew in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuczera, George

1983-06-01

The problem of how to best utilize site and regional flood data to infer the shape parameter of a flood distribution is considered. One approach to this problem is given in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Water Resources Council (1981) for the log-Pearson distribution. Here a lesser known distribution is considered, namely, the power normal which fits flood data as well as the log-Pearson and has a shape parameter denoted by λ derived from a Box-Cox power transformation. The problem of regionalizing λ is considered from an empirical Bayes perspective where site and regional flood data are used to infer λ. The distortive effects of spatial correlation and heterogeneity of site sampling variance of λ are explicitly studied with spatial correlation being found to be of secondary importance. The end product of this analysis is the posterior distribution of the power normal parameters expressing, in probabilistic terms, what is known about the parameters given site flood data and regional information on λ. This distribution can be used to provide the designer with several types of information. The posterior distribution of the T-year flood is derived. The effect of nonlinearity in λ on inference is illustrated. Because uncertainty in λ is explicitly allowed for, the understatement in confidence limits due to fixing λ (analogous to fixing log skew) is avoided. Finally, it is shown how to obtain the marginal flood distribution which can be used to select a design flood with specified exceedance probability.

Somerset County Flood Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoppe, Heidi L.

2007-01-01

The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in

Flash floods in the Tatra Mountain streams: frequency and triggers.

PubMed

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Czajka, B; Janecka, K; Lempa, M; Kaczka, R J; Stoffel, M

2015-04-01

Flash floods represent a frequently recurring natural phenomenon in the Tatra Mountains. On the northern slopes of the mountain chain, located in Poland, ongoing and expected future changes in climate are thought to further increase the adverse impacts of flash floods. Despite the repeat occurrence of major floods in the densely populated foothills of the Polish Tatras, the headwaters have been characterized by a surprising lack of data, such that any analysis of process variability or hydrometeorological triggers has been largely hampered so far. In this study, dendrogeomorphic techniques have been employed in four poorly-gauged torrential streams of the northern slope of the Tatra Mountains to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of past events. Using more than 1100 increment cores of trees injured by past flash floods, we reconstruct 47 events covering the last 148 years and discuss synoptic situations leading to the triggering of flash floods with the existing meteorological and flow gauge data. Tree-ring analyses have allowed highlighting the seasonality of events, providing new insights about potential hydrometeorological triggers as well as a differentiating flash flood activity between catchments. Results of this study could be useful to design future strategies to deal with flash flood risks at the foothills of the Polish Tatras and in the Vistula River catchment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

PubMed Central

Hirsch, R. M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large‐scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States. PMID:27917010

Paleohydrology of flash floods in small desert watersheds in western Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, P. Kyle; Baker, Victor R.

2001-06-01

In this study, geological, historical, and meteorological data were combined to produce a regional chronology of flood magnitude and frequency in nine small basins (7-70 km2). The chronology spans more than 1000 years and demonstrates that detailed records of flood magnitude and frequency can be compiled in arid regions with little to no conventional hydrologic information. The recent (i.e., post-1950) flood history was evaluated by comparing a 50-year series of aerial photographs with precipitation data, ages of flood-transported beer cans, anthropogenic horizons in flood sediments, postbomb 14C dates on flotsam, and anecdotal accounts. Stratigraphic analysis of paleoflood deposits extended the regional flood record in time, and associated flood magnitudes were determined by incorporating relict high-water evidence into a hydraulic model. The results reveal a general consistency among the magnitudes of the largest floods in the historical and the paleoflood records and indicate that the magnitudes and relative frequencies of actual large floods are at variance with "100-year" flood magnitudes predicted by regional flood frequency models. This suggests that the predictive equations may not be appropriate for regulatory, management, or design purposes in the absence of additional, real data on flooding. Augmenting conventional approaches to regional flood magnitude and frequency analysis with real information derived from the alternative methods described here is a viable approach to improving assessments of regional flood characteristics in sparsely gaged desert areas.

75 FR 42766 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-22

... Financial Assistance/ Subsidy Arrangement (Arrangement) to notify private insurance companies (Companies... private insurance companies participating under the current FY2010 Arrangement. Any private insurance...] National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Availability of...

Estimation of Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Streams on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Michael F.

1994-01-01

This report describes techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for the island of Oahu. The log-Pearson Type III distribution and methodology recommended by the Interagency Committee on Water Data was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at 79 gaging stations that had 11 to 72 years of record. Multiple regression analysis was used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. Oahu was divided into three hydrologic regions to define relations between peak discharge and drainage-basin and climatic characteristics. Regression equations are provided to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges at ungaged sites. Significant basin and climatic characteristics included in the regression equations are drainage area, median annual rainfall, and the 2-year, 24-hour rainfall intensity. Drainage areas for sites used in this study ranged from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 34 to 62 percent. Peak-discharge data collected through water year 1988, geographic information system (GIS) technology, and generalized least-squares regression were used in the analyses. The use of GIS seems to be a more flexible and consistent means of defining and calculating basin and climatic characteristics than using manual methods. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations in this report are an average of 8 percent less than those published in previous studies.

Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. To date, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions, and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins and that these correlations can, or should, be used in national to continental scale risk assessment. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that currently observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socioeconomic development. The results demonstrate that accounting for tail dependencies leads to higher estimates of extreme losses than estimates based on the traditional assumption of independence between basins. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the

A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Jetter, K.R.; Sommerville, Alan J.

1961-01-01

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

River flood plains: Some observations on their formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolman, M. Gordon; Leopold, Luna Bergere

1957-01-01

On many small rivers and most great rivers, the flood plain consists of channel and overbank deposits. The proportion of the latter is generally very small.Frequency studies indicate that the flood plains of many streams of different sizes flowing in diverse physiographic and climatic regions are subject to flooding about once a year.The uniform frequency of flooding of the flood-plain surface and the small amount of deposition observed in great floods (average 0.07 foot) support the conclusion that overbank deposition contributes only a minor part of the material constituting the flood plain. The relatively high velocities (1 to 4 fps) which can occur in overbank flows and the reduction in sediment concentration which often accompanies large floods may also help account for this. Although lateral migration of channels is important in controlling the elevation of the flood plain, rates of migration are extremely variable and alone cannot account for the uniform relation the flood-plain surface bears to the channel.Detailed studies of flood plains in Maryland and in North Carolina indicate that it is difficult to differentiate between channel and overbank deposits in a stratigraphic section alone.Because deposition on the flood plain does not continue indefinitely, the flood-plain surface can only be transformed into a terrace surface by some tectonic or climatic change which alters the regimen of the river and causes it to entrench itself below its established bed and associated flood plain. A terrace, then, is distinguished from a flood plain by the frequency with which each is overflowed.

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have documented the important role that "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

2016-04-01

It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area

Importance of record length with respect to estimating the 1-percent chance flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.

2010-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages have been established in every State in the Nation, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. From these st reamflow records, estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are often developed and used to design transportation and water- conveyance structures to protect lives and property, and to determine flood-insurance rates. Probably the most recognizable flood statistic computed from USGS stream gaging records is the 1- percent (%) chance flood; better known has the 100-year flood. By definition, this is a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The 1% chance flood is a statistical estimate that can be significantly influenced by length of record and extreme flood events captured in that record. Consequently, it is typically recommended that flood statistics be updated on some regular interval such as every 10 years. This paper examines the influence of record length on the 1% chance flood for the Broad River in Georgia and the substantial difference that can occur in the estimate based on record length and the hydrologic conditions under which that record was collected. 

7 CFR 1788.3 - Flood insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Flood insurance. 1788.3 Section 1788.3 Agriculture... Insurance Requirements § 1788.3 Flood insurance. (a) Borrowers shall purchase and maintain flood insurance for buildings in flood hazard areas to the extent available and required under the National Flood...

Preliminary evaluation of magnitude and frequency of floods in selected small drainage basins in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolva, J.R.

1985-01-01

A previous study of flood magitudes and frequencies in Ohio concluded that existing regionalized flood equations may not be adequate for estimating peak flows in small basins that are heavily forested, surface mined, or located in northwestern Ohio. In order to provide a large data base for improving estimation of flood peaks in these basins, 30 crest-stage gages were installed in 1977, in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation, to provide a 10-year record of flood data The study area consists of two distinct parts: Northwestern Ohio, which contains 8 sites, and southern and eastern Ohio, which contains 22 sites in small forested or surface-mined drainage basins. Basin characteristics were determined for all 30 sites for 1978 conditions. Annual peaks were recorded or estimated for all 30 sites for water years 1978-82; an additional year of peak discharges was available at four sites. The 2-year (Q2) and 5-year (Q5) flood peaks were determined from these annual peaks.Q2 and Q5 values also were calculated using published regionalized regression equations for Ohio. The ratios of the observed to predicted 2-year (R2) and 5-year (R5) values were then calculated. This study found that observed flood peaks aree lower than estimated peaks by a significant amount in surface-mined basins. The average ratios of observed to predicted R2 values are 0.51 for basins with more than 40 percent surface-minded land, and 0.68 for sites with any surface-mined land. The average R5 value is 0.55 for sites with more than 40 percent surface-minded land, and 0.61 for sites with any surface-mined land. Estimated flood peaks from forested basins agree with the observed values fairly well. R2 values average 0.87 for sites with 20 percent or more forested land, but no surface-mined land, and R5 values average 0.96. If all sites with more than 20 percent forested land and some surface-mined land are considered, R2 the values average 0.86, and the R5 values average 0.82.

Main-channel slopes of selected streams in Iowa for estimation of flood-frequency discharges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.

2003-01-01

This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating floodfrequency discharges. Multivariable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantifications. The multivariable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantifications of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantifications. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantifications of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantifications indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for Climate Change Adaptation in Gyeongancheon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, D.; Joo, H. J.; Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to the climate change and the impermeable area in an urban watershed has also increased due to the rapid urbanization. Therefore, the flood risk is increasing and we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood damage reduction. For the determination of appropriate measures or alternatives, firstly, this study estimated the frequency based rainfall considering the climate change according to the each target period(reference : 1971˜2010, Target period Ⅰ : 2011˜2040, Target period Ⅱ : 2041˜2070, Target period Ⅲ : 2071˜2100). Then the future flood discharge was computed by using HEC-HMS model. We set 5 sizes of drainage pumps and detention ponds respectively as the flood reduction alternatives and the flood level in the river was obtained by each alternative through HEC-RAS model. The flood inundation map was constructed using topographical data and flood water level in the river and the economic analysis was conducted for the flood damage reduction studies using Multi Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) tool. As a result of the effectiveness analysis of the flood reduction alternatives, the flood level by drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of the detention pond. The flooded area was shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth was also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost ratio estimated by the economic analysis, a detention pond E in the target period Ⅰ and the pump D in the periods Ⅱ and Ⅲ were considered as the appropriate alternatives for the flood damage reduction under the climate change. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

Floods in the Raccoon River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1980-01-01

Evaluation of flood hazards, and the planning, design, and operation of various facilities on flood plains requires information on floods. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the Raccoon River and some of its tributaries. Ir covers the Raccoon River, the North Raccoon River to the northern boundary of Sac County and the lower reaches of the Middle and South Raccoon Rivers.

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in

Floods of Selected Streams in Arkansas, Spring 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken

2009-01-01

Floods can cause loss of life and extensive destruction to property. Monitoring floods and understanding the reasons for their occurrence are the responsibility of many Federal agencies. The National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey are among the most visible of these agencies. Together, these three agencies collect and analyze floodflow information to better understand the variety of mechanisms that cause floods, and how the characteristics and frequencies of floods vary with time and location. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored and assessed the quantity of streamflow in our Nation's streams since the agency's inception in 1879. Because of ongoing collection and assessment of streamflow data, the USGS can provide information about a range of surface-water issues including the suitability of water for public supply and irrigation and the effects of agriculture and urbanization on streamflow. As part of its streamflow-data collection activities, the USGS measured streamflow in multiple streams during extreme flood events in Arkansas in the spring of 2008. The analysis of streamflow information collected during flood events such as these provides a scientific basis for decision making related to resource management and restoration. Additionally, this information can be used by water-resource managers to better define flood-hazard areas and to design bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures. Water levels (stage) and streamflow (discharge) currently are being monitored in near real-time at approximately 150 locations in Arkansas. The streamflow-gaging stations measure and record hydrologic data at 15-minute or hourly intervals; the data then are transmitted through satellites to the USGS database and displayed on the internet every 1 to 4 hours. Streamflow-gaging stations in Arkansas are part of a network of over 7,500 active streamflow-gaging stations operated by the USGS throughout the United

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet

Implications of flood pulse restoration for Populus regeneration on the upper Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Scott, Michael L.

2002-01-01

We developed a mass balance flow model to reconstruct unregulated daily peak flows in the National Wild and Scenic reach of the Missouri River, Montana. Results indicated that although the observed frequency of large peak flows has not changed in the post-dam period, their magnitude has been reduced from 40 to 50% as a consequence of flow regulation. Reductions in the magnitude of these flows should reduce the expected frequency of large flood-pulses over a longer time-scale. Results of a two-dimensional hydraulic model indicated that limited cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. Monilifera) recruitment occurs at relatively small peak discharges, but to maximize establishment of cottonwoods in the Wild and Scenic reach, a threshold of 1850 m3/s would be necessary at the Virgelle gauge. Floods of this magnitude or greater lead to establishment of cottonwood seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance. Restoring the frequency, magnitude, duration and timing of these flood pulses would benefit important natural resource values including riparian cottonwood forests and native fish species in the upper Missouri River basin. However, efforts to naturalize flow must be made in the context of a water management system that was authorized and constructed for the primary purposes of flood control, power generation and irrigation. Using the synthesized flow model and flood damage curves, we examined six scenarios for delivering flows ≥1850 m3/s to the Wild and Scenic reach. Whereas some scenarios appeared to be politically and economically infeasible, our analysis suggested that there is enough operational flexibility in the system to restore more natural flood pulses without greatly compromising other values.

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers

Flood control surveys in the northeast

Treesearch

Arthur Bevan

1947-01-01

Floods are a grave danger to our Nation's resources. It is estimated that floods cost the United States at least $100 million every year. The recent Mississippi floods, which dramatically brought the seriousness of the situation to public attention, cost half a billion dollars in direct-damages. The Northeast carries a heavy burden of flood losses. In 1936, floods...

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return

U.S./China Bilateral Symposium on Extraordinary Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, W.

Accurate appraisal of the risk of extreme floods has long been of concern to hydrologists and water resources managers in both the United States and China. In order to exchange information, assess current developments, and discuss further needs in extreme flood analysis, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Hydrology of the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power of the People's Republic of China (PRC) held the Bilateral Symposium on the Analysis of Extraordinary Flood Events, October 14-18, 1985, in Nanjing, China. Co-convenors of the symposium were Marshall E. Moss (USGS) and Hua Shiqian (Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology). Liang Ruiju (East China Technical University of Water Resources) was executive secretary of the organizing committee. Participants included 23 U.S. delegates, 36 Chinese delegates, and five guests from other countries. Of the U.S. delegates, 13 were from federal agencies, seven were from universities, and three were private consultants. The U.S. National Science Foundation gave financial support to the nonfederal U.S. delegates. Major topics covered in the 52 papers presented included detection of historical floods and evaluation of the uncertainties in their peak discharges and times of occurrence,frequency analysis and design flood determination in the presence of extraordinary floods and historic floods, anduse of storm data in determining design storms and design floods, The symposium was followed by a 6-day study tour in central China, during which laboratories, field activities, and offices of various water resources agencies were visited and sites of documented historic floods on the Yangtze River and its tributaries were examined.

Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.

PubMed

Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2016-10-25

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Restoration of flood... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance...

44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3 Denial of flood insurance... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Denial of flood insurance...

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Restoration of flood...

44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3 Denial of flood insurance... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance...

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Restoration of flood insurance...

Statistical Development of Flood Frequency and Magnitude Equations for the Cosumnes and Mokelumne River Drainage Basins, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, R. G.; Meyer, R. W.; Cornwell, K.

2003-12-01

In-basin statistical relations allow for development of regional flood frequency and magnitude equations in the Cosumnes River and Mokelumne River drainage basins. Current equations were derived from data collected through 1975, and do not reflect newer data with some significant flooding. Physical basin characteristics (area, mean basin elevation, slope of longest reach, and mean annual precipitation) were correlated against predicted flood discharges for each of the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500-year recurrence intervals in a multivariate analysis. Predicted maximum instantaneous flood discharges were determined using the PEAKFQ program with default settings, for 24 stream gages within the study area presumed not affected by flow management practices. For numerical comparisons, GIS-based methods using Spatial Analyst and the Arc Hydro Tools extension were applied to derive physical basin characteristics as predictor variables from a 30m digital elevation model (DEM) and a mean annual precipitation raster (PRISM). In a bivariate analysis, examination of Pearson correlation coefficients, F-statistic, and t & p thresholds show good correlation between area and flood discharges. Similar analyses show poor correlation for mean basin elevation, slope and precipitation, with flood discharge. Bivariate analysis suggests slope may not be an appropriate predictor term for use in the multivariate analysis. Precipitation and elevation correlate very well, demonstrating possible orographic effects. From the multivariate analysis, less than 6% of the variability in the correlation is not explained for flood recurrences up to 25 years. Longer term predictions up to 500 years accrue greater uncertainty with as much as 15% of the variability in the correlation left unexplained.

Two-station comparison of peak flows to improve flood-frequency estimates for seven streamflow-gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2003-01-01

Improved flood-frequency estimates for short-term (10 or fewer years of record) streamflow-gaging stations were needed to support instream flow studies by the U.S. Forest Service, which are focused on quantifying water rights necessary to maintain or restore productive fish habitat. Because peak-flow data for short-term gaging stations can be biased by having been collected during an unusually wet, dry, or otherwise unrepresentative period of record, the data may not represent the full range of potential floods at a site. To test whether peak-flow estimates for short-term gaging stations could be improved, the two-station comparison method was used to adjust the logarithmic mean and logarithmic standard deviation of peak flows for seven short-term gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, central Idaho. Correlation coefficients determined from regression of peak flows for paired short-term and long-term (more than 10 years of record) gaging stations over a concurrent period of record indicated that the mean and standard deviation of peak flows for all short-term gaging stations would be improved. Flood-frequency estimates for seven short-term gaging stations were determined using the adjusted mean and standard deviation. The original (unadjusted) flood-frequency estimates for three of the seven short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by less than 10 percent, probably because the data were collected during periods representing the full range of peak flows. Unadjusted flood-frequency estimates for four short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by more than 10 percent; unadjusted estimates for Little Slate Creek and Salmon River near Obsidian differed from adjusted estimates by nearly 30 percent. These large differences probably are attributable to unrepresentative periods of peak-flow data collection.

Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip J.

2014-04-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. So far, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socio-economic development. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhibin; Cazelles, Bernard; Tian, Huidong; Christian Stige, Leif; Bräuning, Achim; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2008-01-01

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957–1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160–170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160–170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. PMID:19033144

Regional skew for California, and flood frequency for selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea; Stedinger, J.R.; Barth, N.A.; Knifong, Donna L.; Ferris, J.C.

2011-01-01

Improved flood-frequency information is important throughout California in general and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin in particular, because of an extensive network of flood-control levees and the risk of catastrophic flooding. A key first step in updating flood-frequency information is determining regional skew. A Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression method was used to derive a regional-skew model based on annual peak-discharge data for 158 long-term (30 or more years of record) stations throughout most of California. The desert areas in southeastern California had too few long-term stations to reliably determine regional skew for that hydrologically distinct region; therefore, the desert areas were excluded from the regional skew analysis for California. Of the 158 long-term stations used to determine regional skew, 145 have minimally regulated annual-peak discharges, and 13 stations are dam sites for which unregulated peak discharges were estimated from unregulated daily maximum discharge data furnished by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. The Bayesian GLS regression method previously developed was modified because of the large cross correlations among concurrent recorded peak discharges in California and the use of censored data and historical flood information with the new expected moments algorithm. In particular, to properly account for these cross-correlation problems and develop a suitable regression model and regression diagnostics, a combination of Bayesian weighted least squares and generalized least squares regression was adopted. This new methodology identified a nonlinear function relating regional skew to mean basin elevation. The regional skew values ranged from -0.62 for a mean basin elevation of zero to 0.61 for a mean basin elevation

Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea

2016-04-01

The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

Development of regional skews for selected flood durations for the Central Valley Region, California, based on data through water year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Berenbrock, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ferris, Justin C.; Knifong, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Flood-frequency information is important in the Central Valley region of California because of the high risk of catastrophic flooding. Most traditional flood-frequency studies focus on peak flows, but for the assessment of the adequacy of reservoirs, levees, other flood control structures, sustained flood flow (flood duration) frequency data are needed. This study focuses on rainfall or rain-on-snow floods, rather than the annual maximum, because rain events produce the largest floods in the region. A key to estimating flood-duration frequency is determining the regional skew for such data. Of the 50 sites used in this study to determine regional skew, 28 sites were considered to have little to no significant regulated flows, and for the 22 sites considered significantly regulated, unregulated daily flow data were synthesized by using reservoir storage changes and diversion records. The unregulated, annual maximum rainfall flood flows for selected durations (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day) for all 50 sites were furnished by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using the expected moments algorithm program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual flood-duration data. Bayesian generalized least squares regression procedures used in earlier studies were modified to address problems caused by large cross correlations among concurrent rainfall floods in California and to address the extensive censoring of low outliers at some sites, by using the new expected moments algorithm for fitting the LP3 distribution to rainfall flood-duration data. To properly account for these problems and to develop suitable regional-skew regression models and regression diagnostics, a combination of ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Bayesian generalized least squares regressions were adopted. This new methodology determined that a nonlinear model relating regional skew to mean basin elevation

Water availability and flood hazards in the John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frank, Frank J.; Oster, E.A.

1979-01-01

The rock formations of the John Day Fossil Beds National Monument area are aquifers that can be expected to yield less than 10 gallons of water per minute to wells. The most permeable of the geologic units is the alluvium that occurs at low elevations along the John Day River and most of the smaller streams. Wells in the alluvial deposits can be expected to yield adequate water supplies for recreational areas; also, wells completed in the underlying bedrock at depths ranging from 50 to 200 feet could yield as much as 10 gallons per minute. Pumping tests on two unused wells indicated yields of 8 gallons per minute and 2 gallons per minute. Nine of the ten springs measured in and near the monument area in late August of 1978 were flowing 0.2 to 30 gallons per minute. Only the Cant Ranch spring and the Johnny Kirk Spring near the Sheep Rock unit had flows exceeding 6 gallons per minute. Chemical analyses of selected constituents of the ground water indicated generally low concentrations of dissolved minerals. Although cloudbursts in the Painted Hills unit could generate a flood wave on the valley floors, flood danger can be reduced by locating recreational sites on high ground. The campground in Indian Canyon of the Clarno unit is vulnerable to cloudburst flooding. About 80 percent of the proposed campground on the John Day River in the Sheep Rock unit is above the estimated level of 1-percent chance flood (100-year flood) of the river. The 1-percent chance flood would extend about 120 feet from the riverbank into the upstream end of the campground. (USGS).

78 FR 14315 - Notice of Chargeable Rates Under the National Flood Insurance Program for Non-Primary Residences

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-05

...] Notice of Chargeable Rates Under the National Flood Insurance Program for Non-Primary Residences AGENCY... residences. DATES: The rates announced in this notice are effective January 1, 2013. [[Page 14316

The 1965 Mississippi River flood in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.; Myers, Richard E.

1965-01-01

Flood data compiled for the part of the River along the eastern border include flood discharges, flood elevations, and the frequency of floods of varying magnitudes. They also include the daily or more frequent stage and discharge data for both the Mississippi River and the downstream gaging stations on Iowa tributaries for the period March-May 1965. Sufficient data are presented to permit studied for preparation of plans for protective works and plans for zoning or for flood plain regulation.

The Effect of Seasonal Floods on Health: Analysis of Six Years of National Health Data and Flood Maps

PubMed Central

Saulnier, Dell D.; Hanson, Claudia; Ir, Por; Mölsted Alvesson, Helle; von Schreeb, Johan

2018-01-01

There is limited knowledge on the effect of seasonal flooding on health over time. We quantified the short- and long-term effects of floods on selected health indicators at public healthcare facilities in 11 districts in Cambodia, a flood-prone setting. Counts of inpatient discharge diagnoses and outpatient consultations for diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, skin infections, injuries, noncommunicable diseases and vector-borne diseases were retrieved from public healthcare facilities for each month between January 2008 and December 2013. Flood water was mapped by month, in square kilometers, from satellite data. Poisson regression models with three lag months were constructed for the health problems in each district, controlled for seasonality and long-term trends. During times of flooding and three months after, there were small to moderate increases in visits to healthcare facilities for skin infections, acute respiratory infections, and diarrhea, while no association was seen at one to two months. The associations were small to moderate, and a few of our results were significant. We observed increases in care seeking for diarrhea, skin infections, and acute respiratory infections following floods, but the associations are uncertain. Additional research on previous exposure to flooding, using community- and facility-based data, would help identify expected health risks after floods in flood-prone settings. PMID:29614051

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

77 FR 74142 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-13

...-2011-0002; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1100 and FEMA-B-1222] Proposed Flood Elevation... Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs) and modified BFEs for communities participating in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), in accordance with section 110 of the Flood Disaster Protection...

Preliminary flood-duration frequency estimates using naturalized streamflow records for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lind, Greg D.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2018-02-13

In this study, “naturalized” daily streamflow records, created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation, were used to compute 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day annual maximum streamflow durations, which are running averages of daily streamflow for the number of days in each duration. Once the annual maximum durations were computed, the floodduration frequencies could be estimated. The estimated flood-duration frequencies correspond to the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent probabilities of their occurring or being exceeded each year. For this report, the focus was on the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, which is a subbasin of the Columbia River Basin. This study is part of a larger one encompassing the entire Columbia Basin.

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Floods in the English River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, A.J.; Riddle, D.E.

1981-01-01

Information describing floods is essential for proper planning, design, and operation of bridges and other structures on or over streams and their flood plains. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the English River and some of its tributaries. It covers the English River, the North English River to near Guernsey, the south Eaglish River to Barnes City and the lower reaches of the Biddle English and Deep Rivers

Impact of the Three-Gorges Dam and water transfer project on Changjiang floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Tadanobu; Shankman, David

2013-01-01

Increasing frequency of severe floods on the middle and lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the past few decades can be attributed to both abnormal monsoon rainfall and landscape changes that include extensive deforestation affecting river sedimentation, and shrinking lakes and levee construction that reduced the areas available for floodwater storage. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) will also affect frequency and intensity of severe floods in the Poyang Lake region of the middle Changjiang. Process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model predicts that the TGD will increase flood risk during the early summer monsoon against the original justifications for building the dam, relating to complex river-lake-groundwater interactions. Several scenarios predict that morphological change will increase flood risk around the lake. This indicates the importance of managing both flood discharge and sediment deposition for the entire basin. Further, the authors assessed the impact of sand mining in the lake after its prohibition on the Changjiang, and clarified that alternative scenario of sand mining in lakes currently disconnected from the mainstream would reduce the flood risk to a greater extent than intensive dredging along junction channel. Because dry biomasses simulated by the model were linearly related to the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) estimated from satellite images, its decadal gradient during 1982-1999 showed a spatially heterogeneous distribution and generally decreasing trends beside the lakes, indicating that the increases in lake reclamation and the resultant decrease in rice productivity are closely related to the hydrologic changes. This integrated approach could help to minimize flood damage and promote better decisions addressing sustainable development.

Flood analyses for Department of Energy Y-12, ORNL and K-25 Plants. Flood analyses in support of flood emergency planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-05-01

The study involved defining the flood potential and local rainfall depth and duration data for the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Y-12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and K-25 plants. All three plants are subject to flooding from the Clinch River. In addition, the Y-12 plant is subject to flooding from East Fork Poplar and Bear Creeks, the ORNL plant from Whiteoak Creek and Melton Branch, and the K-25 plant from Poplar Creek. Determination of flood levels included consideration of both rainfall events and postulated failures of Norris and Melton Hill Dams in seismic events.

Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.

PubMed

Black, Andrew R; Burns, John C

2002-07-22

This paper presents a review of changes in flood risk estimation on Scottish rivers resulting from re-analysis of flood records or from the application of new methods. The review arises at a time when flood damages have received recent prominence through the occurrence of a number of extreme floods in Scotland, and when the possible impacts of climate change on flood risk are receiving considerable attention. An analysis of the nine longest available peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood series for Scottish rivers reveals that, for thresholds yielding two events per year on average, annual POT frequencies on western rivers have increased in the 1980s/1990s to maximum recorded values, while in the east, values were highest in the 1950s/1960s. These results support the results of flood modelling work based on rainfall and temperature records from the 1870s, which indicate that, in western catchments, annual POT frequencies in the 1980s/1990s are unprecedented. No general trends in flood magnitude series were found, but an unexpected cluster of extreme floods is identified as having occurred since 1988, resulting in eight of Scotland's 16 largest gauged rivers producing their maximum recorded flows since then. These shifts are related to recent increases in the dominance of westerly airflows, share similarities with the results of climate change modelling, and collectively point to increases in flood risk in many parts of Scotland. The paper also reviews advances in flood risk estimation arising from the publication of the UK Flood Estimation Handbook, developments in the collection and use of historic flood estimation and the production of maps of 100-year flood areal extent. Finally the challenges in flood risk estimation posed by climate change are examined, particularly in relation to the assumption of stationarity.

Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krug, William R.; House, Leo B.

1980-01-01

The 100-year flood peak at Wisconsin Dells, computed from the simulated, regulated streamflow data for the period 1915-76, is 82,000 cubic feet per second, including the effects of all the reservoirs in the river system, as they are currently operated. It also includes the effects of Lakes Du Bay, Petenwell, and Castle Rock which are significant for spring floods but are insignificant for summer or fall floods because they are normally maintained nearly full in the summer and fall and have very little storage for floodwaters. (USGS)

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

USGS Publications Warehouse

England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

2018-03-29

Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method

A geographic information system tool to solve regression equations and estimate flow-frequency characteristics of Vermont Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.; Johnston, Craig M.

2003-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of streamflow are needed to safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures in or near streams. These estimates also are used for managing floodplains, identifying flood-hazard areas, and establishing flood-insurance rates, but may be required at ungaged sites where no observed flood data are available for streamflow-frequency analysis. This report describes equations for estimating flow-frequency characteristics at ungaged, unregulated streams in Vermont. In the past, regression equations developed to estimate streamflow statistics required users to spend hours manually measuring basin characteristics for the stream site of interest. This report also describes the accompanying customized geographic information system (GIS) tool that automates the measurement of basin characteristics and calculation of corresponding flow statistics. The tool includes software that computes the accuracy of the results and adjustments for expected probability and for streamflow data of a nearby stream-gaging station that is either upstream or downstream and within 50 percent of the drainage area of the site where the flow-frequency characteristics are being estimated. The custom GIS can be linked to the National Flood Frequency program, adding the ability to plot peak-flow-frequency curves and synthetic hydrographs and to compute adjustments for urbanization.

Terminating the Audit of the National Flood Insurance Program’s Fiscal 1980 Financial Statements.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-21

7 AD-A107 188 GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE WASHINGTON DC ACCOUNTING A ETC F/G 5/1 TERMINATING THE AUDIT OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAN S-,-ETC...Management Agency Dear Mr. Giuffrida: A Subject: Terminating the Audit of the National Floodr .) Insurance Program’s Fiscal 1980 Financial...objective of the audit was to express an opinion on the NFIP’s < fiscal 1980 financial statements. We will not meet this objec- tive, however, because

Flood hazard assessment of the Hoh River at Olympic National Park ranger station, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, D.L.; Pierson, T.C.

1987-01-01

Federal regulations require buildings and public facilities on Federal land to be located beyond or protected from inundation by a 100-year flood. Flood elevations, velocities and boundaries were determined for the occurrence of a 100-year flood through a reach, approximately 1-mi-long, of the Hoh River at the ranger station complex in Olympic National Park. Flood elevations, estimated by step-backwater analysis of the 100-year flood discharge through 14 channel and flood-plain cross sections of the Hoh River, indicate that the extent of flooding in the vicinity of buildings or public facilities at the ranger station complex is likely to be limited mostly to two historic meander channels that lie partly within loop A of the public campground and that average flood depths of about 2 feet or less would be anticipated in these channels. Mean flow velocities at the cross sections, corresponding to the passage of a 100-year flood, ranged from about 5 to over 11 ft/sec. Flooding in the vicinity of either the visitors center or the residential and maintenance areas is unlikely unless the small earthen dam at the upstream end of Taft Creek were to fail. Debris flows with volumes on the order of 100 to 1,000 cu yards could be expected to occur in the small creeks that drain the steep valley wall north of the ranger station complex. Historic debris flows in these creeks have generally traveled no more than about 100 yards out onto the valley floor. The potential risk that future debris flows in these creeks might reach developed areas within the ranger station complex is considered to be small because most of the developed areas within the complex are situated more than 100 yards from the base of the valley wall. Landslides or rock avalanches originating from the north valley wall with volumes potentially much larger than those for debris flows could have a significant impact on the ranger station complex. The probability that such landslides or avalanches may occur is

Using Deep Learning to Assess Future Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Semi-arid and Snowmelt-dominated Missouri River Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, B.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

impact on spring flooding are explored. Future flood frequency obtained with ANNs is compared with the one obtained thanks to hydrological models and with the traditional approach as described in Bulletin 17C. Keywords: Flood, Climate-change, Snow, Neural Networks

Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency : of floods are essential for the design of transportation and : water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and : flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly : important in dens...

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Johnson, Kris A.; Erickson, Tyler A.

2017-09-01

This paper reports the development of a ˜30 m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the conterminous U.S. using only publicly available data. The model employs a highly efficient numerical solution of the local inertial form of the shallow water equations which simulates fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. Importantly, we use the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset to determine topography; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defenses; and global regionalized flood frequency analysis to characterize return period flows and rainfalls. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) maps and detailed local hydraulic models developed by the USGS. Where the FEMA SFHAs are based on high-quality local models, the continental-scale model attains a hit rate of 86%. This correspondence improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Against the higher quality USGS data, the average hit rate reaches 92% for the 1 in 100 year flood, and 90% for all flood return periods. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps and USGS model outputs (e.g., errors in estimating return period flows), it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate both to within error. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with dramatically lower cost and greater coverage than approaches based on a patchwork of local studies.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Proposed flood elevation..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.4 Proposed flood elevation determination. The Federal...

44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.4 Proposed flood elevation determination. The Federal... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Proposed flood elevation...

44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.4 Proposed flood elevation determination. The Federal... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Proposed flood elevation...

The 3D Elevation Program—Flood risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carswell, William J.; Lukas, Vicki

2018-01-25

Flood-damage reduction in the United States has been a longstanding but elusive societal goal. The national strategy for reducing flood damage has shifted over recent decades from a focus on construction of flood-control dams and levee systems to a three-pronged strategy to (1) improve the design and operation of such structures, (2) provide more accurate and accessible flood forecasting, and (3) shift the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program to a more balanced, less costly flood-insurance paradigm. Expanding the availability and use of high-quality, three-dimensional (3D) elevation information derived from modern light detection and ranging (lidar) technologies to provide essential terrain data poses a singular opportunity to dramatically enhance the effectiveness of all three components of this strategy. Additionally, FEMA, the National Weather Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed tools and joint program activities to support the national strategy.The USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) has the programmatic infrastructure to produce and provide essential terrain data. This infrastructure includes (1) data acquisition partnerships that leverage funding and reduce duplicative efforts, (2) contracts with experienced private mapping firms that ensure acquisition of consistent, low-cost 3D elevation data, and (3) the technical expertise, standards, and specifications required for consistent, edge-to-edge utility across multiple collection platforms and public access unfettered by individual database designs and limitations.High-quality elevation data, like that collected through 3DEP, are invaluable for assessing and documenting flood risk and communicating detailed information to both responders and planners alike. Multiple flood-mapping programs make use of USGS streamflow and 3DEP data. Flood insurance rate maps, flood documentation studies, and flood-inundation map libraries are products of these

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

PubMed Central

Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. PMID:27790992

Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

2016-11-01

The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments. 65.12 Section 65.12... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL...

General characteristics of causes of urban flood damage and flood forecasting/warning system in Seoul, Korea Young-Il Moon1, 2, Jong-Suk Kim1, 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 130-743, South Korea 2 Urban Flood Research Inst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-Suk

2015-04-01

Due to rapid urbanization and climate change, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has increased, causing urban floods that result in casualties and property damage. As a consequence of natural disasters that occur annually, the cost of damage in Korea is estimated to be over two billion US dollars per year. As interest in natural disasters increase, demands for a safe national territory and efficient emergency plans are on the rise. In addition to this, as a part of the measures to cope with the increase of inland flood damage, it is necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that uses technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast based on both rivers and inland water bodies. Despite the investment and efforts to prevent landside flood damage, research and studies of landside-river combined hydro-system is at its initial stage in Korea. Therefore, the purpose of this research introduces the causes of flood damage in Seoul and shows a flood forecasting and warning system in urban streams of Seoul. This urban flood forecasting and warning system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area and also supports synthetic decision-making for prevention through real-time monitoring. Although we cannot prevent damage from typhoons or localized heavy rain, we can minimize that damage with accurate and timely forecast and a prevention system. To this end, we developed a flood forecasting and warning system, so in case of an emergency there is enough time for evacuation and disaster control. Keywords: urban flooding, flood risk, inland-river system, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Geometric and frequency EMI sounding of estuarine earthen flood defence embankments in Ireland using 1D inversion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viganotti, Matteo; Jackson, Ruth; Krahn, Hartmut; Dyer, Mark

2013-05-01

Earthen flood defence embankments are linear structures, raised above the flood plain, that are commonly used as flood defences in rural settings; these are often relatively old structures constructed using locally garnered material and of which little is known in terms of design and construction. Alarmingly, it is generally reported that a number of urban developments have expanded to previously rural areas; hence, acquiring knowledge about the flood defences protecting these areas has risen significantly in the agendas of basin and asset managers. This paper focusses, by reporting two case studies, on electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods that would efficiently complement routine visual inspections and would represent a first step to more detailed investigations. Evaluation of the results is presented by comparison with ERT profiles and intrusive investigation data. The EM data, acquired using a GEM-2 apparatus for frequency sounding and an EM-31 apparatus for geometrical sounding, has been handled using the prototype eGMS software tool, being developed by the eGMS international research consortium; the depth sounding data interpretation was assisted by 1D inversions obtained with the EM1DFM software developed by the University of British Columbia. Although both sounding methods showed some limitations, the models obtained were consistent with ERT models and the techniques were useful screening methods for the identification of areas of interest, such as material interfaces or potential seepage areas, within the embankment structure: 1D modelling improved the rapid assessment of earthen flood defence embankments in an estuarine environment; evidence that EMI sounding could play an important role as a monitoring tool or as a first step towards more detailed investigations.

44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Flood Mitigation Plan approval..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

2017-12-01

A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

78 FR 27 - Final Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-02

...-2012-0003] Final Flood Elevation Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs) and modified BFEs are made... effect in order to qualify or remain qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program...

75 FR 78926 - Final Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-17

...-2010-0003] Final Flood Elevation Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs) and modified BFEs are made... effect in order to qualify or remain qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program...

77 FR 74610 - Final Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-17

...-2012-0003] Final Flood Elevation Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs) and modified BFEs are made... effect in order to qualify or remain qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program...

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) is a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy...

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) is a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Group Flood Insurance Policy...

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) is a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy...

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) is a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy...

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) is a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy...

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Floods in mountain environments: A synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoffel, Markus; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Marston, Richard A.

2016-11-01

Floods are a crucial agent of geomorphic change in the channels and valley floors of mountains watercourses. At the same time, they can be highly damaging to property, infrastructure, and life. Because of their high energy, mountain watercourses are highly vulnerable to environmental changes affecting their catchments and channels. Many factors have modified and frequently still tend to modify the environmental conditions in mountain areas, with impacts on geomorphic processes and the frequency, magnitude, and timing of floods in mountain watercourses. The ongoing climate changes vary between regions but may affect floods in mountain areas in many ways. In many mountain regions of Europe, widespread afforestation took place over the twentieth century, considerably increasing the amounts of large wood delivered to the channels and the likelihood of jamming bridges. At the same time, deforestation continues in other mountain areas, accelerating runoff and amplifying the magnitude and frequency of floods in foreland areas. In many countries, in-channel gravel mining has been a common practice during recent decades; the resultant deficit of bed material in the affected channels may suddenly manifest during flood events, resulting in the failure of scoured bridges or catastrophic channel widening. During the past century many rivers in mountain and foreland areas incised deeply; the resultant loss of floodplain water storage has decreased attenuation of flood waves, hence increasing flood hazard to downstream river reaches. On the other hand, a large amount of recent river restoration activities worldwide may provide examples of beneficial changes to flood risk, attained as a result of increased channel storage or reestablished floodplain water storage. Relations between geomorphic processes and floods operate in both directions, which means that changes in flood probability or the character of floods (e.g., increased wood load) may significantly modify the morphology

Hydroclimatology of the 2008 Midwest floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budikova, D.; Coleman, J. S. M.; Strope, S. A.; Austin, A.

2010-12-01

The late spring/early summer flooding that occurred in the American Midwest between May and June 2008 resulted from a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that supported a steady influx of moisture into the area. A low pressure system centered over the central-western United States steered a strong jet and associated storms along its eastern edge from the west to southwest and an anomalously strong Great Plains Low Level Jet brought continuous warm and moist air into the area from the Gulf of Mexico into the area. We examine and quantify here the impact these circulation patterns had on the hydroclimatology of the Midwest highlighting the magnitude, frequency, geographic distribution, and temporal evolution of precipitation that ultimately magnified the flooding. Historical precipitation records were used to assess the regional rainfall characteristics at various geographic and time scales. Five distinct hydroclimatic characteristics contributed to the definition of the 2008 flood including persistent high surface soil moisture conditions prior to flooding exasperated by anomalously high rainfall, extreme rainfall totals covering extensive areas, increased frequency of shorter-term, smaller-magnitude events, persistent multiday heavy precipitation events, and extreme flood-producing rain storms. The major flooding lasted for approximately 24 days and most greatly impacted the state of Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana. Its occurrence during the May-June period makes the event especially unusual for this region.

Flood model for Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

78 FR 14577 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... regulatory floodways on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and where applicable, in the supporting Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports have been made final for the communities listed in the table below. The FIRM... participation in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). In...

Hazards of Extreme Weather: Flood Fatalities in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Jackson, T.; Bin-Shafique, S.

2009-12-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) considers flooding “America’s Number One Natural Hazard”. Despite flood management efforts in many communities, U.S. flood damages remain high, due, in large part, to increasing population and property development in flood-prone areas. Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. There are three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). This study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1960 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and weather conditions. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (about 65%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers. Hydrologic analysis of a flood event that resulted in five fatalities was performed. A hydrologic model was able to simulate the water level at a location where a vehicle was swept away by flood water resulting in the death of the driver.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The central purpose of this report is to present methods : for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on : urban and small, rural streams in the Southeast United States : with particular focus on Georgia, South Carolina, and North : Carolin...

Extreme Mississippi River Floods in the Late Holocene: Reconstructions and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Dee, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River is costly in both economic and social terms. Despite ambitious engineering projects conceived in the early 20th century to mitigate damage from extreme floods, economic losses due to flooding have increased over recent years. Forecasting extreme flood occurrence over seasonal or longer time-scales remains a major challenge - especially in light of shifts in hydroclimatic conditions expected in response to continued greenhouse forcing. Here, we present findings from a series of paleoflood records that span the late Holocene derived from laminated sediments deposited in abandoned channels of the Mississippi River. These sedimentary archives record individual overbank floods as unique events beds with upward fining that we identify using grain-size analysis, bulk geochemistry, and radiography. We use sedimentological characteristics to reconstruct flood magnitude by calibrating our records against instrumental streamflow data from nearby gauging stations. We also use the Last Millennium Experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LME) and historical reanalysis data to examine the state of climate system around river discharge extremes. Our paleo-flood records exhibit strong non-stationarities in flood frequency and magnitude that are associated with fluctuations in the frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because the warm ENSO phase is associated with increased surface water storage of the lower Mississippi basin that leads to enhanced runoff delivery to the main channel. We also show that the early 20th century was a period of anomalously high flood frequency and magnitude due to the combined effects of river engineering and natural climate variability. Our findings imply that flood risk along the lower Mississippi River is tightly coupled to the frequency of ENSO, highlighting the need for robust projections of ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.

1990-01-01

Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods

Estimated Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Upper Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch in Kansas City, Missouri, 2006-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Brian P.; Huizinga, Richard J.

2008-01-01

, and 63rd Street on the Blue River, and at 103rd Street on Indian Creek. The National Weather Service issues peak stage forecasts for Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street during floods. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model simulated flooding within a hydraulically complex, 5.6-mile study reach of the Blue River between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the estimated flood-inundation maps and water-velocity magnitude and direction maps. Flood profiles of the upper Blue River between the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road and Hickman Mills Drive were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency discharges and 2006 stage-discharge ratings at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. Flood profiles between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street were developed from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study. Flood profiles of Indian Creek between the Kansas-Missouri border and the mouth were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using current stage-discharge ratings at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at 103rd Street, and water-surface slopes derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations. Mapped flood water-surface elevations at the mouth of Dyke Branch were set equal to the flood water-surface elevations of Indian Creek at the Dyke Branch mouth for all Indian Creek water-surface elevations; water-surface elevation slopes were derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations.

Development of flood profiles and flood-inundation maps for the Village of Killbuck, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of Killbuck Creek near the Village of Killbuck, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Holmes County, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Killbuck Creek near Killbuck (03139000) and were completed as part of an update to Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study. The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The digital maps also have been submitted for inclusion in the data libraries of the USGS interactive Flood Inundation Mapper. Data from the streamgage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating a steady-state step-backwater model to an established streamgage rating curve. The step-backwater model then was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 10 flood stages at the streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

32 CFR 643.31 - Policy-Flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Policy-Flood hazards. 643.31 Section 643.31... ESTATE Policy § 643.31 Policy—Flood hazards. Each Determination of Availability Report will include an evaluation of the flood hazards, if any, relative to the property involved in the proposed outgrant action...

Flood of August 2, 1972, in the Little Maquoketa River basin, Dubuque County, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1973-01-01

Flood-peak discharges at 12 sites, basin rainfall, a description of the 1972 flood, brief accounts of other major floods in the basin, maximum flood peaks in northeastern Iowa, selected flood-frequency data, and annual floods of record at 5 sites are given.

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Past and present floods in South Moravia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš; Stachoň, Zdeněk; Soukalová, Eva; Dobrovolný, Petr

2015-04-01

Floods represent the most destructive natural phenomena in the Czech Republic, often causing great material damage or loss of human life. Systematic instrumental measurements of water levels in Moravia (the eastern part of the Czech Republic) started mainly in the 1880s-1890s, while for discharges it was in the 1910s-1920s. Different documentary evidence allows extension of our knowledge about floods prior the instrumental period. The paper presents long-term flood chronologies for four South Moravian rivers: the Jihlava, the Svratka, the Dyje and the Morava. Different documentary data are used to extract floods. Taxation records are of particular importance among them. Since the mid-17th century, damage to property and land (fields, meadows, pastures or gardens) entitled farmers and landowners to request a tax relief. Related documents of this administration process kept mainly in Moravian Land Archives in Brno allow to obtain detail information about floods and their impacts. Selection of floods in the instrumental period is based on calculation of N-year return period of peak water levels and/or peak discharges for selected hydrological stations of the corresponding rivers (with return period of two years and more). Final flood chronologies combine floods derived from both documentary data and hydrological measurements. Despite greater inter-decadal variability, periods of higher flood frequency are c. 1821-1850 and 1921-1950 for all four rivers; for the Dyje and Morava rivers also 1891-1900. Flood frequency fluctuations are further compared with other Central European rivers. Uncertainties in created chronologies with respect to data and methods used for compilation of long-term series and anthropogenic changes in river catchments are discussed. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia derived from documentary evidence" supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, reg. no. 13-19831S.

12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Insurance Program. (7) NFIP means the National Flood Insurance Program authorized under the Act. (8...(b)); (iii) A statement, where applicable, that flood insurance coverage is available under the NFIP... participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Federal law will not allow us to make you the loan...

12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Insurance Program. (7) NFIP means the National Flood Insurance Program authorized under the Act. (8...(b)); (iii) A statement, where applicable, that flood insurance coverage is available under the NFIP... participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Federal law will not allow us to make you the loan...

12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Insurance Program. (7) NFIP means the National Flood Insurance Program authorized under the Act. (8...(b)); (iii) A statement, where applicable, that flood insurance coverage is available under the NFIP... participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Federal law will not allow us to make you the loan...

12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Insurance Program. (7) NFIP means the National Flood Insurance Program authorized under the Act. (8...(b)); (iii) A statement, where applicable, that flood insurance coverage is available under the NFIP... participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Federal law will not allow us to make you the loan...

44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General § 63.12... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Setback and community flood...

44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General § 63.12... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Setback and community flood...

44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General § 63.12... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Setback and community flood...

44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General § 63.12... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Setback and community flood...

44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General § 63.12... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Setback and community flood...

Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.

1987-01-01

Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, Neil; Sangster, Heather

2017-03-01

The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high-magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates; the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers). Here, we show how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high-magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable periods of increased flooding are identifiable historically, with periods of greater frequency (flood-rich periods). Statistically significant relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified. The use of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.13 Standard Flood Insurance Policy. (a) Incorporation of forms. Each of the... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.13 Standard Flood Insurance Policy. (a) Incorporation of forms. Each of the... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.13 Standard Flood Insurance Policy. (a) Incorporation of forms. Each of the... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.13 Standard Flood Insurance Policy. (a) Incorporation of forms. Each of the... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Standard Flood Insurance...

Evidence of floods on the Potomac River from anatomical abnormalities in the wood of flood-plain trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yanosky, Thomas M.

1983-01-01

Ash trees along the Potomac River flood plain near Washington, D.C., were studied to determine changes in wood anatomy related to flood damage, and anomalous growth was compared to flood records for April 15 to August 31, 1930-79. Collectively, anatomical evidence was detected for 33 of the 34 growing-season floods during the study period. Evidence of 12 floods prior to 1930 was also noted, including catastrophic ones in 1889 and 1924. Trees damaged after the transition from earlywood to latewood growth typically formed ' flood rings ' of enlarged vessels within the latewood zone. Trees damaged near the beginning of the growth year developed flood rings within, or contiguous with, the earlywood. Both patterns are assumed to have developed when flood-damaged trees produced a second crop of leaves. Trees damaged by high-magnitude floods developed well formed flood rings along the entire height and around the entire circumference of the stem. Small floods were generally associated wtih diffuse or discontinuous anomalies restricted to stem apices. Frequency of flood rings was positively related to flood magnitude, and time of flood generation during the tree-growth season was estimated from the radial position of anomalous growth relative to annual ring width. Reconstructing tree heights in a year of flood-ring formation gives a minimum stage estimate along local stream reaches. Some trees provided evidence of numerous floods. Those with the greatest number of flood rings grew on frequently flooded surfaces subject to flood-flow velocities of at least 1 m/s, and more typically greater than 2 m/s. Tree size, more than age, was related to flood-ring formation. Trees kept small by frequent flood damage had more flood rings than taller trees of comparable age. (USGS)

Floods at Mount Clemens, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Ash, Arlington D.

1962-01-01

The approximate areas inundated during the flood of April 5-6, 1947, by Clinton River, North Branch and Middle Branch of Clinton River, and Harrington Drain, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., are shown on a topographic map base to record the flood hazard in graphical form. The flood of April 1947 is the highest known since 1934 and probably since 1902. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt was made to define their probable overflow limits.The Clinton River Cut-Off Canal, a flood-relief channel which diverts flow directly into Lake St. Clair from a point about 1500 feet downstream from Gratiot Avenue (about 9 miles upstream from the mouth) has been in operation since October 1951. The approximate limits of overflow that would results from a flood equivalent in discharge to that of April 1947, and occurring with the Cut-Off Canal in operation, are also shown. Although the Cut-Off Canal may reduce the frequency and depth of flooding it will not necessarily eliminate future flooding in the area. Improvements and additions to the drainage systems in the basin, expanding urbanization, new highways, and other cultural changes may influence the inundation pattern of future floods.The preparation of this flood inundation map was financed through a cooperative agreement between Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., and the U.S. Geological Survey.Backwater curves used to define the profile for a hypothetical flood on the Clinton River downstream from Moravian Drive, equivalent in discharge to the 1947 flood, but occurring with the present Cut-Off Canal in operation; flood stage established at the gaging station on Clinton River at Mount Clemens; and supplementary floodmark elevations were furnished by the Corps of Engineers.Bench-mark elevations and field survey data, used in the analysis of floods on Harrington Drain, were furnished by the Macomb County Drain Commission.

Floods of May 1981 in west-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.; Fassler, John W.

1982-01-01

Extensive flooding occurred in west-central Montana during May 22-23, 1981, as a result of a series of rainstorms. Flooding was particularly severe in the communities of East Helena, Belt, and Deer Lodge. Although no lives were lost, total flood damages were estimated by the Montana Disaster Emergency Services Division to be in excess of $30 million. Peak discharges were determined at 75 sites in the flooded area. At 25 sites the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood, and at 29 sites, where previous flow records are available, the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record. (USGS)

Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

2016-04-01

during summer. Using the above methodology the future dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized on discharge-duration-frequency curves. Results will be discussed with regards to the sensitivity of predicted flood occurrence, duration and magnitude by quantifying the impact of rainfall, temperature and land-use changes.

Flood frequency analysis for a braided river catchment in New Zealand: Comparing annual maximum and partial duration series with varying record lengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, B. K.; Mohssen, M.; Hughey, K. F. D.

2017-04-01

This study addresses technical questions concerning the use of the partial duration series (PDS) within the domain of flood frequency analysis. The recurring questions which often prevent the standardised use of the PDS are peak independence and threshold selection. This paper explores standardised approaches to peak and threshold selection to produce PDS samples with differing average annual exceedances, using six theoretical probability distributions. The availability of historical annual maximum (AMS) data (1930-1966) in addition to systemic AMS data (1967-2015) enables a unique comparison between the performance of the PDS sample and the systemic AMS sample. A recently derived formula for the translation of the PDS into the annual domain, simplifying the use of the PDS, is utilised in an applied case study for the first time. Overall, the study shows that PDS sampling returns flood magnitudes similar to those produced by AMS series utilising historical data and thus the use of the PDS should be preferred in cases where historical flood data is unavailable.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges from urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, L.D.

1986-01-01

Techniques are defined for estimating the magnitude and frequency of future flood peak discharges of rainfall-induced runoff from small urban basins in Missouri. These techniques were developed from an initial analysis of flood records of 96 gaged sites in Missouri and adjacent states. Final regression equations are based on a balanced, representative sampling of 37 gaged sites in Missouri. This sample included 9 statewide urban study sites, 18 urban sites in St. Louis County, and 10 predominantly rural sites statewide. Short-term records were extended on the basis of long-term climatic records and use of a rainfall-runoff model. Linear least-squares regression analyses were used with log-transformed variables to relate flood magnitudes of selected recurrence intervals (dependent variables) to selected drainage basin indexes (independent variables). For gaged urban study sites within the State, the flood peak estimates are from the frequency curves defined from the synthesized long-term discharge records. Flood frequency estimates are made for ungaged sites by using regression equations that require determination of the drainage basin size and either the percentage of impervious area or a basin development factor. Alternative sets of equations are given for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods. The average standard errors of estimate range from about 33% for the 2-yr flood to 26% for the 100-yr flood. The techniques for estimation are applicable to flood flows that are not significantly affected by storage caused by manmade activities. Flood peak discharge estimating equations are considered applicable for sites on basins draining approximately 0.25 to 40 sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

Are flood occurrences in Europe linked to specific atmospheric circulation types?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Genevier, M.

2009-04-01

Flood damages are amongst the most costly climate-related hazard damages, with annual average flood damage in Europe in the last few decades of around €4bn per year (Barredo, 2007). With such economic and sometimes human losses, it is important to improve our estimations of flood risk for time scales from a few months (for increased preparedness) and to several decades (necessary to establish long-term flood management strategies). This paper investigates links between the occurrence of flood events and the atmospheric circulation patterns that have prevailed in the days leading to the flood. With the recent advances in climate modelling, such links could be exploited to anticipate the extent of potential damages due to flood using seasonal atmospheric forecasts products or future climate projections. The research is undertaken at a pan-European scale and exploits latest research in automatic classification techniques developed within the EU research network COST733 Action. Daily flow data from over 450 sites were used, available from the Global Runoff Data Centre, the European Water Archive, the UK National River Flow Archive and the French Banque Hydro. The atmospheric circulation types were defined following the Objective GrossWetterLagen classification (OGWL) developed by (James, 2007) using the ERA-40 mslp re-analysis, similar to the Hess-Brezowsky subjective classification (Hess and Brezowsky, 1977). Flood events were here defined according to the peak-over-threshold method, selecting the highest independent peaks observed in streamflow time series. The association between flood and atmospheric circulation types is assessed using two indicators. The first indicator calculates the difference between the frequency of occurrence of a circulation type CTi during a flood event to that for any day, expressed in percent. The significance of the anomaly is assessed using the χ2 statistics. The second indicator measures the probability of finding at last k days of

The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

Propagation and composition of the flood wave on the upper Mississippi River, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

1995-01-01

. During the flood, the USGS provided continuous streamflow and related information to the National Weather Service (NWS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and many State and local agencies as part of its role to provide basic information on the Nation's surface- and ground-water resources at thousands of locations across the United States. The NWS has used the data in forecasting floods and issuing flood warnings. The data have been used by the Corps of Engineers to operate water diversions, dams, locks, and levees. The FEMA and many State and local emergency management agencies have used USGS hydrologic data and NWS forecasts as part of the basis of their local flood-response activities. In addition, USGS hydrologists are conducting a series of investigations to document the effects of the flooding and to improve understanding of the related processes. The major initial findings from these studies will be reported in this Circular series as results become available.U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1120, Floods in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993, consists of individually published chapters that will document the effects of the 1993 flooding. The series includes data and findings on the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges; precipitation; water-quality characteristics, including nutrients and man-made contaminants; transport of sediment; assessment of sediment deposited on flood plains; effects of inundation on ground-water quality; flood-discharge volume; effects of reservoir storage on flood peaks; stream-channel scour at selected bridges; extent of floodplain inundation; and documentation of geomorphologic changes.

Geospatial Analysis for Flood-Risk Management, Resilience, and US Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, N.; Hui, R.; Conrad, D. R.; Schaefer, K.

2016-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 to curtail unfettered development on US floodplains and spiraling taxpayer expenditures for disaster relief. Currently NFIP underwrites >5 million policies, providing >1.25 trillion in coverage, and taking in >3.5 billion in annual premiums. Cumulative flood-damage payouts to date exceed premiums collected by >$20 billion. Our group has obtained nationwide databases of NFIP flood-damage claims back to 1972, annual policies since 1994, and selective Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) repetitive losses. Attributes include property, claims, and loss characteristics. Other attributes were stripped to maintain policyholder anonymity. At present, locations are to the nearest 0.1° lat/long, zip code, and by community. We combine NFIP data with GIS information from a variety of other sources. Over the past 44 years, 1,625,470 non-zero flood claims are documented. Numbers of claims and losses have increased over time, even with extreme events (Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy) excluded. Flood losses have occurred within 100-year floodplains (1% annual exceedance), in coastal hazard zones, and 25% of claims occur outside of mapped flood-hazard areas. We hypothesize that a many losses outside of FEMA's designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) correlate with (1) outdated map panels, (2) contrasting levels of enforcement and mitigation by state. Other distributed flood losses represent stormwater/drainage damage. Claim rates substantially exceed 1%, both in and outside the SFHA, and for "pre-FIRM" and "post-FIRM" structures. This suggests that ≥100-year floods are occurring more frequently than statutory frequencies suggest. For US homeowners, this suggests that flood insurance is a good deal in a variety of settings. The NFIP data analyzed here contrasts with our group's previous, largely model-driven research. Such empirical flood data exclude model assumptions, but add dizzying array of human and

A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

2016-04-01

Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

The English national cohort study of flooding and health: cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one.

PubMed

Waite, Thomas David; Chaintarli, Katerina; Beck, Charles R; Bone, Angie; Amlôt, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Reacher, Mark; Armstrong, Ben; Leonardi, Giovanni; Rubin, G James; Oliver, Isabel

2017-01-28

In winter 2013/14 there was widespread flooding in England. Previous studies have described an increased prevalence of psychological morbidity six months after flooding. Disruption to essential services may increase morbidity however there have been no studies examining whether those experiencing disruption but not directly flooded are affected. The National Study of Flooding and Health was established in order to investigate the longer-term impact of flooding and related disruptions on mental health and wellbeing. In year one we conducted a cross sectional analysis of people living in neighbourhoods affected by flooding between 1 December 2013 and 31 March 2014. 8761 households were invited to participate. Participants were categorised according to exposure as flooded, disrupted by flooding or unaffected. We used validated instruments to screen for probable psychological morbidity, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ 2), Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2) and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) checklist (PCL-6). We calculated prevalence and odds ratios for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. 2126 people (23%) responded. The prevalence of psychological morbidity was elevated amongst flooded participants ([n = 622] depression 20.1%, anxiety 28.3%, PTSD 36.2%) and disrupted participants ([n = 1099] depression 9.6%, anxiety 10.7% PTSD 15.2%). Flooding was associated with higher odds of all outcomes (adjusted odds ratios (aORs), 95% CIs for depression 5.91 (3.91-10.99), anxiety 6.50 (3.77-11.24), PTSD 7.19 (4.33-11.93)). Flooded participants who reported domestic utilities disruption had higher odds of all outcomes than other flooded participants, (aORs, depression 6.19 (3.30-11.59), anxiety 6.64 (3.84-11.48), PTSD 7.27 (4.39-12.03) aORs without such disruption, depression, 3.14 (1.17-8.39), anxiety 3.45 (1.45-8.22), PTSD 2.90 (1.25-6.73)). Increased floodwater depth was significantly

44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.14 Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations. (a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.14 Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations. (a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.14 Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations. (a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.14 Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations. (a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.14 Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations. (a... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance...

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science

12 CFR 741.216 - Flood insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Flood insurance. 741.216 Section 741.216 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS REQUIREMENTS FOR... Also Apply to Federally Insured State-Chartered Credit Unions § 741.216 Flood insurance. Any credit...

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

2008-01-01

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B

Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

2014-09-01

Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

Wall pressure measurements of flooding in vertical countercurrent annular air–water flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choutapalli, I., Vierow, K.

2010-01-01

An experimental study of flooding in countercurrent air-water annular flow in a large diameter vertical tube using wall pressure measurements is described in this paper. Axial pressure profiles along the length of the test section were measured up to and after flooding using fast response pressure transducers for three representative liquid flow rates representing a wide range of liquid Reynolds numbers (ReL = 4Γ/μ; Γ is the liquid mass flow rate per unit perimeter; μ is the dynamic viscosity) from 3341 to 19,048. The results show that flooding in large diameter tubes cannot be initiated near the air outlet andmore » is only initiated near the air inlet. Fourier analysis of the wall pressure measurements shows that up to the point of flooding, there is no dominant wave frequency but rather a band of frequencies encompassing both the low frequency and the broad band that are responsible for flooding. The data indicates that flooding in large diameter vertical tubes may be caused by the constructive superposition of a plurality of waves rather than the action of a single large-amplitude wave.« less

Classification of mechanisms, climatic context, areal scaling, and synchronization of floods: the hydroclimatology of floods in the Upper Paraná River basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Lall, Upmanu

2017-12-01

Floods are the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life. Studies suggest that some extreme floods result from a causal climate chain. Exceptional rain and floods are determined by large-scale anomalies and persistent patterns in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which influence the magnitude, extent, and duration of these extremes. Moreover, floods can result from different generating mechanisms. These factors contradict the assumptions of homogeneity, and often stationarity, in flood frequency analysis. Here we outline a methodological framework based on clustering using self-organizing maps (SOMs) that allows the linkage of large-scale processes to local-scale observations. The methodology is applied to flood data from several sites in the flood-prone Upper Paraná River basin (UPRB) in southern Brazil. The SOM clustering approach is employed to classify the 6-day rainfall field over the UPRB into four categories, which are then used to classify floods into four types based on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the rainfall field prior to the observed flood events. An analysis of the vertically integrated moisture fluxes, vorticity, and high-level atmospheric circulation revealed that these four clusters are related to known tropical and extratropical processes, including the South American low-level jet (SALLJ); extratropical cyclones; and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Persistent anomalies in the sea surface temperature fields in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are also found to be associated with these processes. Floods associated with each cluster present different patterns in terms of frequency, magnitude, spatial variability, scaling, and synchronization of events across the sites and subbasins. These insights suggest new directions for flood risk assessment, forecasting, and management.

User's Manual for Program PeakFQ, Annual Flood-Frequency Analysis Using Bulletin 17B Guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Kathleen M.; Kirby, William H.; Hummel, Paul R.