Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men

PubMed Central

Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

2017-01-01

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. PMID:28727762

Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men.

PubMed

Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Dodge, Brian; Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

2017-01-01

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents' identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as "appealing" than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed.

Secondary standards laboratories for ionizing radiation calibrations: The national laboratory interests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberson, P. I.; Campbell, G. W.

1984-11-01

The national laboratories are probable candidates to serve as secondary standards laboratories for the federal sector. Representatives of the major Department of Energy laboratories were polled concerning attitudes toward a secondary laboratory structure. Generally, the need for secondary laboratories was recognized and the development of such a program was encouraged. The secondary laboratories should be reviewed and inspected by the National Bureau of Standards. They should offer all of the essential, and preferably additional, calibration services in the field of radiological health protection. The selection of secondary laboratories should be based on economic and geographic criteria and/or be voluntary.

Prevalence, risk, and correlates of posttraumatic stress disorder across ethnic and racial minority groups in the United States.

PubMed

Alegría, Margarita; Fortuna, Lisa R; Lin, Julia Y; Norris, Fran H; Gao, Shan; Takeuchi, David T; Jackson, James S; Shrout, Patrick E; Valentine, Anne

2013-12-01

We assess whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) varies in prevalence, diagnostic criteria endorsement, and type and frequency of potentially traumatic events (PTEs) among a nationally representative US sample of 5071 non-Latino whites, 3264 Latinos, 2178 Asians, 4249 African Americans, and 1476 Afro-Caribbeans. PTSD and other psychiatric disorders were evaluated using the World Mental Health-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) in a national household sample that oversampled ethnic/racial minorities (n=16,238) but was weighted to produce results representative of the general population. Asians have lower prevalence rates of probable lifetime PTSD, whereas African Americans have higher rates as compared with non-Latino whites, even after adjusting for type and number of exposures to traumatic events, and for sociodemographic, clinical, and social support factors. Afro-Caribbeans and Latinos seem to demonstrate similar risk to non-Latino whites, adjusting for these same covariates. Higher rates of probable PTSD exhibited by African Americans and lower rates for Asians, as compared with non-Latino whites, do not appear related to differential symptom endorsement, differences in risk or protective factors, or differences in types and frequencies of PTEs across groups. There appears to be marked differences in conditional risk of probable PTSD across ethnic/racial groups. Questions remain about what explains risk of probable PTSD. Several factors that might account for these differences are discussed, as well as the clinical implications of our findings. Uncertainty of the PTSD diagnostic assessment for Latinos and Asians requires further evaluation.

Attitudes toward Science among Grades 3 through 12 Arab Students in Qatar: Findings from a Cross-Sectional National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Said, Ziad; Summers, Ryan; Abd-El-Khalick, Fouad; Wang, Shuai

2016-01-01

This study assessed students' attitudes toward science in Qatar. A cross-sectional, nationwide probability sample representing all students enrolled in grades 3 through 12 in the various types of schools in Qatar completed the "Arabic Speaking Students' Attitudes toward Science Survey" (ASSASS). The validity and reliability of the…

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey.

PubMed

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B S

2016-07-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quantity affects matching proportions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservatism often thought. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey

PubMed Central

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B.S.

2016-01-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quanity affects matching propoptions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservativism often thought. PMID:27082756

Divorce as Risky Behavior

PubMed Central

LIGHT, AUDREY; AHN, TAEHYUN

2010-01-01

Given that divorce often represents a high-stakes income gamble, we ask how individual levels of risk tolerance affect the decision to divorce. We extend the orthodox divorce model by assuming that individuals are risk averse, that marriage is risky, and that divorce is even riskier. The model predicts that conditional on the expected gains to marriage and divorce, the probability of divorce increases with relative risk tolerance because risk averse individuals require compensation for the additional risk that is inherent in divorce. To implement the model empirically, we use data for first-married women and men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of divorce in which a measure of risk tolerance is among the covariates. The estimates reveal that a 1-point increase in risk tolerance raises the predicted probability of divorce by 4.3% for a representative man and by 11.4% for a representative woman. These findings are consistent with the notion that divorce entails a greater income gamble for women than for men. PMID:21308563

Divorce as risky behavior.

PubMed

Light, Audrey; Ahn, Taehyun

2010-11-01

Given that divorce often represents a high-stakes income gamble, we ask how individual levels of risk tolerance affect the decision to divorce. We extend the orthodox divorce model by assuming that individuals are risk averse, that marriage is risky, and that divorce is even riskier. The model predicts that conditional on the expected gains to marriage and divorce, the probability of divorce increases with relative risk tolerance because risk averse individuals require compensation for the additional risk that is inherent in divorce. To implement the model empirically, we use data for first-married women and men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of divorce in which a measure of risk tolerance is among the covariates. The estimates reveal that a 1-point increase in risk tolerance raises the predicted probability of divorce by 4.3% for a representative man and by 11.4% for a representative woman. These findings are consistent with the notion that divorce entails a greater income gamble for women than for men.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Automated Comparative Auditing of NCIT Genomic Roles Using NCBI

PubMed Central

Cohen, Barry; Oren, Marc; Min, Hua; Perl, Yehoshua; Halper, Michael

2008-01-01

Biomedical research has identified many human genes and various knowledge about them. The National Cancer Institute Thesaurus (NCIT) represents such knowledge as concepts and roles (relationships). Due to the rapid advances in this field, it is to be expected that the NCIT’s Gene hierarchy will contain role errors. A comparative methodology to audit the Gene hierarchy with the use of the National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) Entrez Gene database is presented. The two knowledge sources are accessed via a pair of Web crawlers to ensure up-to-date data. Our algorithms then compare the knowledge gathered from each, identify discrepancies that represent probable errors, and suggest corrective actions. The primary focus is on two kinds of gene-roles: (1) the chromosomal locations of genes, and (2) the biological processes in which genes plays a role. Regarding chromosomal locations, the discrepancies revealed are striking and systematic, suggesting a structurally common origin. In regard to the biological processes, difficulties arise because genes frequently play roles in multiple processes, and processes may have many designations (such as synonymous terms). Our algorithms make use of the roles defined in the NCIT Biological Process hierarchy to uncover many probable gene-role errors in the NCIT. These results show that automated comparative auditing is a promising technique that can identify a large number of probable errors and corrections for them in a terminological genomic knowledge repository, thus facilitating its overall maintenance. PMID:18486558

Evaluating the risk of industrial espionage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bott, T.F.

1998-12-31

A methodology for estimating the relative probabilities of different compromise paths for protected information by insider and visitor intelligence collectors has been developed based on an event-tree analysis of the intelligence collection operation. The analyst identifies target information and ultimate users who might attempt to gain that information. The analyst then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability estimates indicate the relative likelihood of different compromise paths and provide anmore » input for security resource allocation. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models specifically addressing this example espionage problem are developed. The probability models for hard-copy information compromise paths are quantified as an illustration of the results using parametric values representative of historical data available in secure facilities, supplemented where necessary by expert judgment.« less

Metacognition, risk behavior, and risk outcomes: the role of perceived intelligence and perceived knowledge.

PubMed

Jaccard, James; Dodge, Tonya; Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent

2005-03-01

The present study explores 2 key variables in social metacognition: perceived intelligence and perceived levels of knowledge about a specific content domain. The former represents a judgment of one's knowledge at an abstract level, whereas the latter represents a judgment of one's knowledge in a specific content domain. Data from interviews of approximately 8,411 female adolescents from a national sample were analyzed in a 2-wave panel design with a year between assessments. Higher levels of perceived intelligence at Wave 1 were associated with a lower probability of the occurrence of a pregnancy over the ensuing year independent of actual IQ, self-esteem, and academic aspirations. Higher levels of perceived knowledge about the accurate use of birth control were associated with a higher probability of the occurrence of a pregnancy independent of actual knowledge about accurate use, perceived intelligence, self-esteem, and academic aspirations.

Ageing in India: Financial hardship from health expenditures.

PubMed

Lee, Ting-Hsuan J; Saran, Indrani; Rao, Krishna D

2018-04-01

India's rapidly ageing population raises concerns about the burden of health care payments among older individuals who may have both limited income and greater health care needs. Using a nationally representative household survey, we investigate the association between age and financial hardship due to health expenditures. We find that both the probability of experiencing health problems and mean total out-of-pocket health expenditures increase with age. Second, the probability of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditures increases with each additional member aged 60 and above-33% of households with one 60+ member and 38% of households with 2 or more 60+ members experienced catastrophic health expenditures, compared to only 20% in households with all members under the age of 60 years. Lastly, we show that individuals aged 60 and above had a much higher probability of becoming impoverished as a result of health expenditures-the probability of impoverishment for 60+ individuals was 3 percentage points higher than for individuals under the age of 60. Overall, around 4.8% of the older population, representing 4.1 million people, fell into poverty. The results suggest that there is an urgent need for public investments in financial protection programs for older people in India. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The National Response Framework: A Cross-Case Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-13

media representatives wanting access to top officials.95 People with disabilities reported a lack of live captioning and sign language interpreters... use due to an inefficient check-in process. Public information shortfalls included providing inadequate information for people with disabilities , not...numbers, suggesting that the commonly used term “low-probably, high- consequence events” to describe major disasters is misleading. U.S. shores, forests

Probability of Vitamin D Deficiency by Body Weight and Race/Ethnicity.

PubMed

Weishaar, Tom; Rajan, Sonali; Keller, Bryan

2016-01-01

While most physicians recognize that vitamin D status varies by skin color because darker skin requires more light to synthesize vitamin D than lighter skin, the importance of body weight to vitamin D status is a newer, less recognized, finding. The purpose of this study was to use nationally representative US data to determine the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color. Using data for individuals age ≥6 years from the 2001 to 2010 cycles of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we calculated the effect of skin color, body weight, and age on vitamin D status. We determined the probability of deficiency within the normal range of body weight for 3 race/ethnicity groups at 3 target levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Darker skin colors and heavier body weights are independently and significantly associated with poorer vitamin D status. We report graphically the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color at vitamin D targets of 20 and 30 ng/mL. The effects of skin color and body weight on vitamin D status are large both statistically and clinically. Knowledge of these effects may facilitate diagnosis of vitamin D deficiency. © Copyright 2016 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

The Italian national trends in smoking initiation and cessation according to gender and education.

PubMed

Sardu, C; Mereu, A; Minerba, L; Contu, P

2009-09-01

OBJECTIVES. This study aims to assess the trend in initiation and cessation of smoking across successive birth cohorts, according to gender and education, in order to provide useful suggestion for tobacco control policy. STUDY DESIGN. The study is based on data from the "Health conditions and resort to sanitary services" survey carried out in Italy from October 2004 to September 2005 by the National Institute of Statistics. Through a multisampling procedure a sample representative of the entire national territory was selected. In order to calculate trends in smoking initiation and cessation, data were stratified for birth cohorts, gender and education level, and analyzed through the life table method. The cumulative probability of smoking initiation, across subsequent generations, shows a downward trend followed by a plateau. This result highlights that there is not a shred of evidence to support the hypothesis of an anticipation in smoking initiation. The cumulative probability of quitting, across subsequent generations, follows an upward trend, highlighting the growing tendency of smokers to become an "early quitter", who give up within 30 years of age. Results suggest that the Italian antismoking approach, for the most part targeted at preventing the initiation of smoking emphasising the negative consequences, has an effect on the early smoking cessation. Health policies should reinforce the existing trend of "early quitting" through specific actions. In addition our results show that men with low education exhibit the higher probability of smoking initiation and the lower probability of early quitting, and therefore should be targeted with special attention.

The global impact distribution of Near-Earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumpf, Clemens; Lewis, Hugh G.; Atkinson, Peter M.

2016-02-01

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially threatening NEOs from these lists that produce 261 dynamically distinct impact instances, or Virtual Impactors (VIs), were calculated using the Asteroid Risk Mitigation and Optimization Research (ARMOR) tool in conjunction with OrbFit. ARMOR projected the impact probability of each VI onto the surface of the Earth as a spatial probability distribution. The projection considers orbit solution accuracy and the global impact probability. The method of ARMOR is introduced and the tool is validated against two asteroid-Earth collision cases with objects 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA. In the analysis, the natural distribution of impact corridors is contrasted against the impact probability distribution to evaluate the distributions' conformity with the uniform impact distribution assumption. The distribution of impact corridors is based on the NEO population and orbital mechanics. The analysis shows that the distribution of impact corridors matches the common assumption of uniform impact distribution and the result extends the evidence base for the uniform assumption from qualitative analysis of historic impact events into the future in a quantitative way. This finding is confirmed in a parallel analysis of impact points belonging to a synthetic population of 10,006 VIs. Taking into account the impact probabilities introduced significant variation into the results and the impact probability distribution, consequently, deviates markedly from uniformity. The concept of impact probabilities is a product of the asteroid observation and orbit determination technique and, thus, represents a man-made component that is largely disconnected from natural processes. It is important to consider impact probabilities because such information represents the best estimate of where an impact might occur.

Masculinity-femininity predicts sexual orientation in men but not in women.

PubMed

Udry, J Richard; Chantala, Kim

2006-11-01

Using the nationally representative sample of about 15,000 Add Health respondents in Wave III, the hypothesis is tested that masculinity-femininity in adolescence is correlated with sexual orientation 5 years later and 6 years later: that is, that for adolescent males in 1995 and again in 1996, more feminine males have a higher probability of self-identifying as homosexuals in 2001-02. It is predicted that for adolescent females in 1995 and 1996, more masculine females have a higher probability of self-identifying as homosexuals in 2001-02. Masculinity-femininity is measured by the classical method used by Terman & Miles. For both time periods, the hypothesis was strongly confirmed for males: the more feminine males had several times the probability of being attracted to same-sex partners, several times the probability of having same-sex partners, and several times the probability of self-identifying as homosexuals, compared with more masculine males. For females, no relationship was found at either time period between masculinity and sex of preference. The biological mechanism underlying homosexuality may be different for males and females.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States.

PubMed

Dodge, Brian; Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G M

2016-01-01

As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to "neither agree nor disagree" with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant characteristic; female participants' attitudes were more positive than male participants' attitudes, and all participants' attitudes were generally more positive toward bisexual women than bisexual men. While recent population data suggest a marked shift in more positive attitudes toward gay men and lesbian women in the general population of the U.S., the largest proportions of participants in our study reported a relative lack of agreement or disagreement with all affective-evaluative statements in the BIAS scales. Findings document the relative lack of positive attitudes toward bisexual individuals among the general population of adults in the U.S. and highlight the need for developing intervention approaches to promote more positive attitudes toward bisexual individuals, targeted toward not only heterosexual but also gay/lesbian individuals and communities.

Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States

PubMed Central

Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.

2016-01-01

As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant characteristic; female participants’ attitudes were more positive than male participants’ attitudes, and all participants’ attitudes were generally more positive toward bisexual women than bisexual men. While recent population data suggest a marked shift in more positive attitudes toward gay men and lesbian women in the general population of the U.S., the largest proportions of participants in our study reported a relative lack of agreement or disagreement with all affective-evaluative statements in the BIAS scales. Findings document the relative lack of positive attitudes toward bisexual individuals among the general population of adults in the U.S. and highlight the need for developing intervention approaches to promote more positive attitudes toward bisexual individuals, targeted toward not only heterosexual but also gay/lesbian individuals and communities. PMID:27783644

Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys

PubMed Central

Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

2016-01-01

Objective To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey. Methods We compared 148 MSM aged 18–64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010–2012, with men in the same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS); 797 in the London Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey; and 1234 in Scotland's Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey. Analyses compared men reporting at least one male sexual partner (past year) on similarly worded questions and multivariable analyses accounted for sociodemographic differences between the surveys. Results MSM in convenience surveys were younger and better educated than MSM in Natsal-3, and a larger proportion identified as gay (85%–95% vs 62%). Partner numbers were higher and same-sex anal sex more common in convenience surveys. Unprotected anal intercourse was more commonly reported in EMIS. Compared with Natsal-3, MSM in convenience surveys were more likely to report gonorrhoea diagnoses and HIV testing (both past year). Differences between the samples were reduced when restricting analysis to gay-identifying MSM. Conclusions National probability surveys better reflect the population of MSM but are limited by their smaller samples of MSM. Convenience surveys recruit larger samples of MSM but tend to over-represent MSM identifying as gay and reporting more sexual risk behaviours. Because both sampling strategies have strengths and weaknesses, methods are needed to triangulate data from probability and convenience surveys. PMID:26965869

Has Adolescent Suicidality Decreased in the United States? Data From Two National Samples of Adolescents Interviewed in 1995 and 2005

PubMed Central

Wolitzky-Taylor, Kate B.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Smith, Daniel W.; Hanson, Rochelle F.; Resnick, Heidi S.; de Arellano, Michael A.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2011-01-01

We compared the prevalence and correlates of adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts in two nationally representative probability samples of adolescents interviewed in 1995 (National Survey of Adolescents; N =4,023) and 2005 (National Survey of Adolescents-Replication; N =3,614). Participants in both samples completed a telephone survey that assessed major depressive episode (MDE), post-traumatic stress disorder, suicidal ideation and attempts, violence exposure, and substance use. Results demonstrated that the lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among adolescents was lower in 2005 than 1995, whereas the prevalence of suicide attempts remained stable. MDE was the strongest predictor of suicidality in both samples. In addition, several demographic, substance use, and violence exposure variables were significantly associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation and attempts in both samples, with female gender, nonexperimental drug use, and direct violence exposure being consistent risk factors in both samples. PMID:20390799

Perfluorinated Compounds in Fish from US Urban Rivers and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) have recently received scientific and regulatory attention due to their broad environmental distribution, persistence, bioaccumulative potential, and toxicity. Some studies suggest that the consumption of fish from contaminated waters may be a major source of human exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) or other long-chain perfluorocarboxylic acids. Much of the existing PFC fish tissue literature focuses on marine fish species and on fish collected outside of the continental U.S. To broaden the assessment of PFCs in U.S. fish, a comprehensive characterization of PFC contamination in freshwater fish was initiated on a national scale during the U.S. EPA 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment and during the Great Lakes Human Health Fish Tissue Study component of the 2010 EPA National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA/GL). National estimates were developed for PFCs in fish from urban rivers and regional estimates for fish in the U.S. Great Lakes using an unequal probability design. Fish were collected from a statistically representative set of 164 urban river sites and from 157 randomly selected nearshore sites in the U.S. throughout the five Great Lakes. The probability design allowed extrapolation to the sampled population of 17,059 km in urban rivers and a nearshore area of 11,091 km2 in the Great Lakes. Fish fillet tissue was analyzed for 13 PFCs using high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spec

Assessing the impact of antidrug advertising on adolescent drug consumption: results from a behavioral economic model.

PubMed

Block, Lauren G; Morwitz, Vicki G; Putsis, William P; Sen, Subrata K

2002-08-01

This study examined whether adolescents' recall of antidrug advertising is associated with a decreased probability of using illicit drugs and, given drug use, a reduced volume of use. A behavioral economic model of influences on drug consumption was developed with survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents to determine the incremental impact of antidrug advertising. The findings provided evidence that recall of antidrug advertising was associated with a lower probability of marijuana and cocaine/crack use. Recall of such advertising was not associated with the decision of how much marijuana or cocaine/crack to use. Results suggest that individuals predisposed to try marijuana are also predisposed to try cocaine/crack. The present results provide support for the effectiveness of antidrug advertising programs.

Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Kevin

Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

Dyadic Configurations of Sexual Problems Among Older U.S. Adults: A National Study.

PubMed

Das, Aniruddha

2017-07-04

Using data from the 2010-2011 National Social Life Health and Aging Project (NSHAP)-a nationally representative probability sample of older U.S. adults as well as their partners-this study provides the first comprehensive, population-based analysis of dyadic configurations of sexual problems and their correlates among those aged 60 to 90 years. Results suggest the majority of late-life partnerships (N = 854) may not have a heavy burden of sexual difficulties. However, almost a fifth (18.21%) of partnered older women do not abstain from sex despite low sexual motivation and capacity. This relational "type" seems unlinked to demographic or health attributes, and may be driven more by partnership strains. In addition, an "at risk" group with consistent sexual problems, arguably due to age-related decline, comprises 27.16% of all late-life couples.

Characteristics of out-of-home caregiving environments provided under child welfare services.

PubMed

Barth, Richard P; Green, Rebecca; Webb, Mary Bruce; Wall, Ariana; Gibbons, Claire; Craig, Carlton

2008-01-01

A national probability sample of children who have been in child welfare supervised placements for about one year identifies the characteristics (e.g., age, training, education, health, and home) of the foster parents, kinship foster parents, and group home caregivers. Caregiving respondents provided information about their backgrounds. Interviewers also used the HOME-SF to assess the caregiving environments of foster care and kinship care. Comparisons are made to other nationally representative samples, including the U.S. Census and the National Survey of America's Families. Kinship care, foster care, and group care providers are significantly different from each other--and the general population--in age and education. Findings on the numbers of children cared for, understimulating environments, use of punitive punishment, and low educational levels of caregivers generate suggestions for practice with foster families.

The relationship between problem gambling and mental and physical health correlates among a nationally representative sample of Canadian women.

PubMed

Afifi, Tracie O; Cox, Brian J; Martens, Patricia J; Sareen, Jitender; Enns, Murray W

2010-01-01

Gambling has become an increasingly common activity among women since the widespread growth of the gambling industry. Currently, our knowledge of the relationship between problem gambling among women and mental and physical correlates is limited. Therefore, important relationships between problem gambling and health and functioning, mental disorders, physical health conditions, and help-seeking behaviours among women were examined using a nationally representative Canadian sample. Data were from the nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 1.2 (CCHS 1.2; n = 10,056 women aged 15 years and older; data collected in 2002). The statistical analysis included binary logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, and linear regression models. Past 12-month problem gambling was associated with a significantly higher probability of current lower general health, suicidal ideation and attempts, decreased psychological well-being, increased distress, depression, mania, panic attacks, social phobia, agoraphobia, alcohol dependence, any mental disorder, comorbidity of mental disorders, chronic bronchitis, fibromyalgia, migraine headaches, help-seeking from a professional, attending a self-help group, and calling a telephone help line (odds ratios ranged from 1.5 to 8.2). Problem gambling was associated with a broad range of negative health correlates among women. Problem gambling is an important public health concern. These findings can be used to inform healthy public policies on gambling.

Attitudes toward science among grades 3 through 12 Arab students in Qatar: findings from a cross-sectional national study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Said, Ziad; Summers, Ryan; Abd-El-Khalick, Fouad; Wang, Shuai

2016-03-01

This study assessed students' attitudes toward science in Qatar. A cross-sectional, nationwide probability sample representing all students enrolled in grades 3 through 12 in the various types of schools in Qatar completed the 'Arabic Speaking Students' Attitudes toward Science Survey' (ASSASS). The validity and reliability of the 32-item instrument, encompassing five sub-scales, have already been shown to be robust. The present analysis focused on responses from 1978 participants representing the students who completed the ASSASS in Arabic. Descriptive statistics were computed and a competing pair of multiple indicators multiple causes models is presented that attempt to link patterns in students' responses to the ASSASS with a set of indicators. The final model retained student age, gender, nationality (i.e. Qatari vs. Non-Qatari Arab), and school type as indicators. Findings from this study suggest that participants' attitudes toward science decrease with age, and that these attitudes and related preferences are influenced by students' nationality and the type of school they attend. Equally important, the often-reported advantages for male over female precollege students in terms of attitudes toward science were much less prominent in the present study.

Homelessness and Aging Out of Foster Care: A National Comparison of Child Welfare-Involved Adolescents.

PubMed

Fowler, Patrick J; Marcal, Katherine E; Zhang, Jinjin; Day, Orin; Landsverk, John

2017-06-01

The present study represents the first large-scale, prospective comparison to test whether aging out of foster care contributes to homelessness risk in emerging adulthood. A nationally representative sample of adolescents investigated by the child welfare system in 2008 to 2009 from the second cohort of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being Study (NSCAW II) reported experiences of housing problems at 18- and 36-month follow-ups. Latent class analyses identified subtypes of housing problems, including literal homelessness, housing instability, and stable housing. Regressions predicted subgroup membership based on aging out experiences, receipt of foster care services, and youth and county characteristics. Youth who reunified after out-of-home placement in adolescence exhibited the lowest probability of literal homelessness, while youth who aged out experienced similar rates of literal homelessness as youth investigated by child welfare but never placed out of home. No differences existed between groups on prevalence of unstable housing. Exposure to independent living services and extended foster care did not relate with homelessness prevention. Findings emphasize the developmental importance of families in promoting housing stability in the transition to adulthood, while questioning child welfare current focus on preparing foster youth to live.

Atlas of depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2004-01-01

Ninety-six maps depicting the spatial variation of the depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas are presented. The recurrence intervals represented are 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The storm durations represented are 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 hours; and 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 days. The maps were derived using geographically referenced parameter maps of probability distributions used in previously published research by the U.S. Geological Survey to model the magnitude and frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas. The maps in this report apply that research and update depth-duration frequency of precipitation maps available in earlier studies done by the National Weather Service.

Symptoms of major depression in people with spinal cord injury: implications for screening.

PubMed

Bombardier, Charles H; Richards, J Scott; Krause, James S; Tulsky, David; Tate, Denise G

2004-11-01

To provide psychometric data on a self-report measure of major depressive disorder (MDD) and to determine whether somatic symptoms are nonspecific or count toward the diagnosis. Survey. Data from the National Spinal Cord Injury Statistical Center representing 16 Model Spinal Cord Injury Systems. Eight hundred forty-nine people with spinal cord injury who completed a standardized follow-up evaluation 1 year after injury. Not applicable. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), a measure of MDD as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition . We computed descriptive statistics on rates of depressive symptoms and probable MDD, evaluated internal consistency and construct validity, and analyzed the accuracy of individual items as predictors of MDD. Exactly 11.4% of participants met criteria for probable MDD. Probable MDD was associated with poorer subjective health, lower satisfaction with life, and more difficulty in daily role functioning. Probable MDD was not related to most demographic or injury-related variables. Both somatic and psychologic symptoms predicted probable MDD. The PHQ-9 has promise as a tool with which to identify probable MDD in people with SCI. Somatic symptoms should be counted toward the diagnosis and should alert health care providers to the likelihood of MDD. More efficient screening is only one of the quality improvement efforts needed to enhance management of MDD.

Intelligence and homosexuality.

PubMed

Kanazawa, Satoshi

2012-09-01

The origin of preferences and values is an unresolved theoretical problem in behavioural sciences. The Savanna-IQ Interaction Hypothesis, derived from the Savanna Principle and a theory of the evolution of general intelligence, suggests that more intelligent individuals are more likely to acquire and espouse evolutionarily novel preferences and values than less intelligent individuals, but general intelligence has no effect on the acquisition and espousal of evolutionarily familiar preferences and values. Ethnographies of traditional societies suggest that exclusively homosexual behaviour was probably rare in the ancestral environment, so the Hypothesis would predict that more intelligent individuals are more likely to identify themselves as homosexual and engage in homosexual behaviour. Analyses of three large, nationally representative samples (two of which are prospectively longitudinal) from two different nations confirm the prediction.

Neutron Particle Effects on a Quad-Redundant Flight Control Computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eure, Kenneth; Belcastro, Celeste M.; Gray, W Steven; Gonzalex, Oscar

2003-01-01

This paper describes a single-event upset experiment performed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. A closed-loop control system consisting of a Quad-Redundant Flight Control Computer (FCC) and a B737 simulator was operated while the FCC was exposed to a neutron beam. The purpose of this test was to analyze the effects of neutron bombardment on avionics control systems operating at altitudes where neutron strikes are probable. The neutron energy spectrum produced at the Los Alamos National Laboratory is similar in shape to the spectrum of atmospheric neutrons but much more intense. The higher intensity results in accelerated life tests that are representative of the actual neutron radiation that a FCC may receive over a period of years.

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

Small-area estimation of the probability of toxocariasis in New York City based on sociodemographic neighborhood composition.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; Haseeb, M A

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is increasingly recognized as an important neglected infection of poverty (NIP) in developed countries, and may constitute the most important NIP in the United States (US) given its association with chronic sequelae such as asthma and poor cognitive development. Its potential public health burden notwithstanding, toxocariasis surveillance is minimal throughout the US and so the true burden of disease remains uncertain in many areas. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted a representative serologic survey of toxocariasis to estimate the prevalence of infection in diverse US subpopulations across different regions of the country. Using the NHANES III surveillance data, the current study applied the predicted probabilities of toxocariasis to the sociodemographic composition of New York census tracts to estimate the local probability of infection across the city. The predicted probability of toxocariasis ranged from 6% among US-born Latino women with a university education to 57% among immigrant men with less than a high school education. The predicted probability of toxocariasis exhibited marked spatial variation across the city, with particularly high infection probabilities in large sections of Queens, and smaller, more concentrated areas of Brooklyn and northern Manhattan. This investigation is the first attempt at small-area estimation of the probability surface of toxocariasis in a major US city. While this study does not define toxocariasis risk directly, it does provide a much needed tool to aid the development of toxocariasis surveillance in New York City.

Small-Area Estimation of the Probability of Toxocariasis in New York City Based on Sociodemographic Neighborhood Composition

PubMed Central

Walsh, Michael G.; Haseeb, M. A.

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is increasingly recognized as an important neglected infection of poverty (NIP) in developed countries, and may constitute the most important NIP in the United States (US) given its association with chronic sequelae such as asthma and poor cognitive development. Its potential public health burden notwithstanding, toxocariasis surveillance is minimal throughout the US and so the true burden of disease remains uncertain in many areas. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted a representative serologic survey of toxocariasis to estimate the prevalence of infection in diverse US subpopulations across different regions of the country. Using the NHANES III surveillance data, the current study applied the predicted probabilities of toxocariasis to the sociodemographic composition of New York census tracts to estimate the local probability of infection across the city. The predicted probability of toxocariasis ranged from 6% among US-born Latino women with a university education to 57% among immigrant men with less than a high school education. The predicted probability of toxocariasis exhibited marked spatial variation across the city, with particularly high infection probabilities in large sections of Queens, and smaller, more concentrated areas of Brooklyn and northern Manhattan. This investigation is the first attempt at small-area estimation of the probability surface of toxocariasis in a major US city. While this study does not define toxocariasis risk directly, it does provide a much needed tool to aid the development of toxocariasis surveillance in New York City. PMID:24918785

Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys.

PubMed

Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

2016-09-01

To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey. We compared 148 MSM aged 18-64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010-2012, with men in the same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS); 797 in the London Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey; and 1234 in Scotland's Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey. Analyses compared men reporting at least one male sexual partner (past year) on similarly worded questions and multivariable analyses accounted for sociodemographic differences between the surveys. MSM in convenience surveys were younger and better educated than MSM in Natsal-3, and a larger proportion identified as gay (85%-95% vs 62%). Partner numbers were higher and same-sex anal sex more common in convenience surveys. Unprotected anal intercourse was more commonly reported in EMIS. Compared with Natsal-3, MSM in convenience surveys were more likely to report gonorrhoea diagnoses and HIV testing (both past year). Differences between the samples were reduced when restricting analysis to gay-identifying MSM. National probability surveys better reflect the population of MSM but are limited by their smaller samples of MSM. Convenience surveys recruit larger samples of MSM but tend to over-represent MSM identifying as gay and reporting more sexual risk behaviours. Because both sampling strategies have strengths and weaknesses, methods are needed to triangulate data from probability and convenience surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

New trends in gender and mathematics performance: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lindberg, Sara M; Hyde, Janet Shibley; Petersen, Jennifer L; Linn, Marcia C

2010-11-01

In this article, we use meta-analysis to analyze gender differences in recent studies of mathematics performance. First, we meta-analyzed data from 242 studies published between 1990 and 2007, representing the testing of 1,286,350 people. Overall, d = 0.05, indicating no gender difference, and variance ratio = 1.08, indicating nearly equal male and female variances. Second, we analyzed data from large data sets based on probability sampling of U.S. adolescents over the past 20 years: the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, the Longitudinal Study of American Youth, and the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Effect sizes for the gender difference ranged between -0.15 and +0.22. Variance ratios ranged from 0.88 to 1.34. Taken together, these findings support the view that males and females perform similarly in mathematics.

Oxytocin receptor gene polymorphisms, attachment, and PTSD: Results from the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study.

PubMed

Sippel, Lauren M; Han, Shizhong; Watkins, Laura E; Harpaz-Rotem, Ilan; Southwick, Steven M; Krystal, John H; Olff, Miranda; Sherva, Richard; Farrer, Lindsay A; Kranzler, Henry R; Gelernter, Joel; Pietrzak, Robert H

2017-11-01

The human oxytocin system is implicated in social behavior and stress recovery. Polymorphisms in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) may interact with attachment style to predict stress-related psychopathology like posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The objective of this study was to examine independent and interactive effects of the OXTR single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs53576, which has been associated with stress reactivity, support-seeking, and PTSD in prior studies, and attachment style on risk for PTSD in a nationally representative sample of 2163 European-American (EA) U.S. military veterans who participated in two independent waves of the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study (NHRVS). Results revealed that insecure attachment style [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 4.29; p < 0.001] and the interaction of rs53576 and attachment style (OR = 2.58, p = 0.02) were associated with probable lifetime PTSD. Among individuals with the minor A allele, the prevalence of probable PTSD was significantly higher among those with an insecure attachment style (23.9%) than those with a secure attachment style (2.0%), equivalent to an adjusted OR of 10.7. We attempted to replicate these findings by utilizing dense marker data from a genome-wide association study of 2215 high-risk civilians; one OXTR variant, though not rs53576, was associated with PTSD. Exploratory analyses in the veteran sample revealed that the interaction between this variant and attachment style predicting probable PTSD approached statistical significance. Results indicate that polymorphisms in the OXTR gene and attachment style may contribute to vulnerability to PTSD in U.S. military veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R.; Maloney, Laurence T.

2011-01-01

In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent motor lotteries. The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject’s noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks where information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks where probability was implicit in the subjects’ own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk. PMID:21677166

The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk.

PubMed

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

2011-06-15

In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent "motor lotteries." The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject's noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks in which information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks in which probability was implicit in the subjects' own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk.

Differences Between New and Long-Standing US Gun Owners: Results From a National Survey.

PubMed

Wertz, Joseph; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David; Sorenson, Susan; Miller, Matthew

2018-07-01

To quantify the proportion of current US gun owners who are new to owning firearms and compare new versus long-standing gun owners with respect to their firearms and firearm-related behaviors. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative probability-based online survey conducted in 2015 in the United States. We defined new gun owners as current firearm owners who acquired all of their firearms within the past 5 years, but who lived in a home without a gun at some time over the past 5 years. We defined long-standing firearm owners as all other current gun owners. New gun owners represented 10% of all current US adult gun owners. In addition to being younger than long-standing gun owners, new gun owners were more likely to be liberal, own fewer guns, own handguns, own guns only for protection, and store guns in a safe manner. Gun ownership is dynamic, with approximately 1 million Americans becoming new gun owners each year. Public Health Implications. Clinical guidelines should be updated to explicitly endorse re-evaluating household firearm status at regular intervals.

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

PubMed

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The financial burden of out-of-pocket expenses in the United States and Canada: How different is the United States?

PubMed Central

Baird, Katherine E

2016-01-01

Background: This article compares the burden that medical cost-sharing requirements place on households in the United States and Canada. It estimates the probability that individuals with similar demographic features in the two countries have large medical expenses relative to income. Method: The study uses 2010 nationally representative household survey data harmonized for cross-national comparisons to identify individuals with high medical expenses relative to income. Using logistic regression, it estimates the probability of high expenses occurring among 10 different demographic groups in the two countries. Results: The results show the risk of large medical expenses in the United States is 1.5–4 times higher than it is in Canada, depending on the demographic group and spending threshold used. The United States compares least favorably when evaluating poorer citizens and when using a higher spending threshold. Conclusion: Recent health care reforms can be expected to reduce Americans’ catastrophic health expenses, but it will take very large reductions in out-of-pocket expenditures—larger than can be expected—if poorer and middle-class families are to have the financial protection from high health care costs that their counterparts in Canada have. PMID:26985389

The role of parental education in child disability in China from 1987 to 2006.

PubMed

He, Ping; Chen, Gong; Wang, Zhenjie; Guo, Chao; Zheng, Xiaoying

2017-01-01

This paper aimed to investigate the role of parental education in child disability in China. We used nationally representative data from China's National Sample Survey on Disability, iterated twice, in 1987 and 2006, with data of 764,718 children aged 0-14 years. Logit models were used for statistical analysis. Results showed that the prevalence of child disability was significantly associated with each parent's education. Maternal education was more important than paternal education in child disability in both surveys. The analysis of marginal effect indicated a one-year increase in maternal and paternal schooling led to an average decrease of 0.121% and 0.091% in the probability of child disability in 1987, and 19 years later, these figures had dwindled to 0.091% and 0.072%, respectively.

Diagnosing Geospatial Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speciale, A.; Kenney, M. A.; Gerst, M.; Baer, A. E.; DeWitt, D.; Gottschalk, J.; Handel, S.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty of future weather and climate conditions is important for many decisions made in communities and economic sectors. One tool that decision-makers use in gauging this uncertainty is forecasts, especially maps (or visualizations) of probabilistic forecast results. However, visualizing geospatial uncertainty is challenging because including probability introduces an extra variable to represent and probability is often poorly understood by users. Using focus group and survey methods, this study seeks to understand the barriers to using probabilistic temperature and precipitation visualizations for specific decisions in the agriculture, energy, emergency management, and water resource sectors. Preliminary results shown here focus on findings of emergency manager needs. Our experimental design uses National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA's) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks, which produce probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast visualizations at the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 3-4 week, and 1 and 3 month timeframes. Users were asked to complete questions related to how they use weather information, how uncertainty is represented, and design elements (e.g., color, contour lines) of the visualizations. Preliminary results from the emergency management sector indicate there is significant confusion on how "normal" weather is defined, boundaries between probability ranges, and meaning of the contour lines. After a complete understandability diagnosis is made using results from all sectors, we will collaborate with CPC to suggest modifications to the climate outlook visualizations. These modifications will then be retested in similar focus groups and web-based surveys to confirm they better meet the needs of users.

Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2016-06-01

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP): a web-based tool for estimating probability of causation/assigned share of radiogenic cancers.

PubMed

Kocher, David C; Apostoaei, A Iulian; Henshaw, Russell W; Hoffman, F Owen; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K; Stancescu, Daniel O; Thomas, Brian A; Trabalka, John R; Gilbert, Ethel S; Land, Charles E

2008-07-01

The Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP) is a Web-based, interactive computer code that is used to estimate the probability that a given cancer in an individual was induced by given exposures to ionizing radiation. IREP was developed by a Working Group of the National Cancer Institute and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and was adopted and modified by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for use in adjudicating claims for compensation for cancer under the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000. In this paper, the quantity calculated in IREP is referred to as "probability of causation/assigned share" (PC/AS). PC/AS for a given cancer in an individual is calculated on the basis of an estimate of the excess relative risk (ERR) associated with given radiation exposures and the relationship PC/AS = ERR/ERR+1. IREP accounts for uncertainties in calculating probability distributions of ERR and PC/AS. An accounting of uncertainty is necessary when decisions about granting claims for compensation for cancer are made on the basis of an estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS to give claimants the "benefit of the doubt." This paper discusses models and methods incorporated in IREP to estimate ERR and PC/AS. Approaches to accounting for uncertainty are emphasized, and limitations of IREP are discussed. Although IREP is intended to provide unbiased estimates of ERR and PC/AS and their uncertainties to represent the current state of knowledge, there are situations described in this paper in which NIOSH, as a matter of policy, makes assumptions that give a higher estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS than other plausible alternatives and, thus, are more favorable to claimants.

Bullying victimisation and risk of psychotic phenomena: analyses of British national survey data.

PubMed

Catone, Gennaro; Marwaha, Steven; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Lennox, Belinda; Freeman, Daniel; Bebbington, Paul; Broome, Matthew

2015-07-01

Being bullied is an aversive experience with short-term and long-term consequences, and is incorporated in biopsychosocial models of psychosis. We used the 2000 and the 2007 British Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Surveys to test the hypothesis that bullying is associated with individual psychotic phenomena and with psychosis, and predicts the later emergence of persecutory ideation and hallucinations. We analysed two nationally representative surveys of individuals aged 16 years or older in Great Britain (2000) and England (2007). Respondents were presented with a card listing stressful events to identify experiences of bullying over the entire lifespan. We assessed associations with the dependent variables persecutory ideation, auditory and visual hallucinations, and diagnosis of probable psychosis. All analyses were controlled for sociodemographic confounders, intelligence quotient (IQ), and other traumas. We used data for 8580 respondents from 2000 and 7403 from 2007. Bullying was associated with presence of persecutory ideation and hallucinations, remaining so after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, IQ, other traumas, and childhood sexual abuse. Bullying was associated with a diagnosis of probable psychosis. If reported at baseline, bullying predicted emergence and maintenance of persecutory ideation and hallucinations during 18 months of follow-up in the 2000 survey. Controlling for other traumas and childhood sexual abuse did not affect the association between bullying and psychotic symptoms, but reduced the significance of the association with diagnosis of probable psychosis. Bullying was most strongly associated with the presence of concurrent persecutory ideation and hallucinations. Bullying victimisation increases the risk of individual psychotic symptoms and of a diagnosis of probable psychosis. Early detection of bullying and use of treatments oriented towards its psychological consequences might ameliorate the course of psychosis. None. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges in making a seismic hazard map for Alaska and the Aleutians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.; Mueller, C.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Freymueller, J.T.

2008-01-01

We present a summary of the data and analyses leading to the revision of the time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians. These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data, and reflect best current judgments about methodology and approach. They have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States, and will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. We present example maps for peak ground acceleration, 0.2 s spectral amplitude (SA), and 1.0 s SA at a probability level of 2% in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404). In this summary, we emphasize issues encountered in preparation of the maps that motivate or require future investigation and research.

Assessing the Impact of Antidrug Advertising on Adolescent Drug Consumption: Results From a Behavioral Economic Model

PubMed Central

Block, Lauren G.; Morwitz, Vicki G.; Putsis, William P.; Sen, Subrata K.

2002-01-01

Objectives. This study examined whether adolescents’ recall of antidrug advertising is associated with a decreased probability of using illicit drugs and, given drug use, a reduced volume of use. Methods. A behavioral economic model of influences on drug consumption was developed with survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents to determine the incremental impact of antidrug advertising. Results. The findings provided evidence that recall of antidrug advertising was associated with a lower probability of marijuana and cocaine/crack use. Recall of such advertising was not associated with the decision of how much marijuana or cocaine/crack to use. Results suggest that individuals predisposed to try marijuana are also predisposed to try cocaine/crack. Conclusions. The present results provide support for the effectiveness of antidrug advertising programs. (Am J Public Health. 2002;92:1346–1351) PMID:12144995

Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

PubMed

Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

2017-07-01

Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, p<0.0001). Physicians are strongly influenced by a representativeness bias, leading to base-rate neglect, even though they understand the application of statistical probability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Comparison of the Mortality Probability Admission Model III, National Quality Forum, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV hospital mortality models: implications for national benchmarking*.

PubMed

Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

2014-03-01

To examine the accuracy of the original Mortality Probability Admission Model III, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum modification of Mortality Probability Admission Model III, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa models for comparing observed and risk-adjusted hospital mortality predictions. Retrospective paired analyses of day 1 hospital mortality predictions using three prognostic models. Fifty-five ICUs at 38 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to December 2012. Among 174,001 intensive care admissions, 109,926 met model inclusion criteria and 55,304 had data for mortality prediction using all three models. None. We compared patient exclusions and the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy for each model. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa excluded 10.7% of all patients, ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum 20.1%, and Mortality Probability Admission Model III 24.1%. Discrimination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior with area under receiver operating curve (0.88) compared with Mortality Probability Admission Model III (0.81) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (0.80). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was better calibrated (lowest Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). The accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa was superior (adjusted Brier score = 31.0%) to that for Mortality Probability Admission Model III (16.1%) and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum (17.8%). Compared with observed mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa overpredicted mortality by 1.5% and Mortality Probability Admission Model III by 3.1%; ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum underpredicted mortality by 1.2%. Calibration curves showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation performed well over the entire risk range, unlike the Mortality Probability Admission Model and ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum models. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa had better accuracy within patient subgroups and for specific admission diagnoses. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa offered the best discrimination and calibration on a large common dataset and excluded fewer patients than Mortality Probability Admission Model III or ICU Outcomes Model/National Quality Forum. The choice of ICU performance benchmarks should be based on a comparison of model accuracy using data for identical patients.

Bayesian time series analysis of segments of the Rocky Mountain trumpeter swan population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Christopher K.; Sojda, Richard S.; Goodman, Daniel

2002-01-01

A Bayesian time series analysis technique, the dynamic linear model, was used to analyze counts of Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) summering in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming from 1931 to 2000. For the Yellowstone National Park segment of white birds (sub-adults and adults combined) the estimated probability of a positive growth rate is 0.01. The estimated probability of achieving the Subcommittee on Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swans 2002 population goal of 40 white birds for the Yellowstone segment is less than 0.01. Outside of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming white birds are estimated to have a 0.79 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.05 probability of achieving the 2002 objective of 120 white birds. In the Centennial Valley in southwest Montana, results indicate a probability of 0.87 that the white bird population is growing at a positive rate with considerable uncertainty. The estimated probability of achieving the 2002 Centennial Valley objective of 160 white birds is 0.14 but under an alternative model falls to 0.04. The estimated probability that the Targhee National Forest segment of white birds has a positive growth rate is 0.03. In Idaho outside of the Targhee National Forest, white birds are estimated to have a 0.97 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.18 probability of attaining the 2002 goal of 150 white birds.

Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States

PubMed Central

Baird, Katherine E

2016-01-01

Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills. PMID:27651901

Sexual Behaviors of U.S. Men by Self-Identified Sexual Orientation: Results From the 2012 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior.

PubMed

Dodge, Brian; Herbenick, Debby; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Schick, Vanessa; Reece, Michael; Sanders, Stephanie; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2016-04-01

Although a large body of previous research has examined sexual behavior and its relation to risk in men of diverse sexual identities, most studies have relied on convenience sampling. As such, the vast majority of research on the sexual behaviors of gay and bisexual men, in particular, might not be generalizable to the general population of these men in the United States. This is of particular concern because many studies are based on samples of men recruited from relatively "high-risk" venues and environments. To provide nationally representative baseline rates for sexual behavior in heterosexual, gay, and bisexual men in the United States and compare findings on sexual behaviors, relationships, and other variables across subgroups. Data were obtained from the 2012 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, which involved the administration of an online questionnaire to a nationally representative probability sample of women and men at least 18 years old in the United States, with oversampling of self-identified gay and bisexual men and women. Results from the male participants are included in this article. Measurements include demographic characteristics, particularly sexual identity, and their relations to diverse sexual behaviors, including masturbation, mutual masturbation, oral sex, vaginal sex, and anal sex. Behaviors with male and female partners were examined. Men of all self-identified sexual identities reported engaging in a range of sexual behaviors (solo and partnered). As in previous studies, sexual identity was not always congruent for gender of lifetime and recent sexual partners. Patterns of sexual behaviors and relationships vary among heterosexual, gay, and bisexual men. Several demographic characteristics, including age, were related to men's sexual behaviors. The results from this probability study highlight the diversity in men's sexual behaviors across sexual identities, and these data allow generalizability to the broader population of gay and bisexual men, in particular, in the United States, which is a major advancement in research focused on individuals in a sexual minority. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An international point source outbreak of typhoid fever: a European collaborative investigation*

PubMed Central

Stanwell-Smith, R. E.; Ward, L. R.

1986-01-01

A point source outbreak of Salmonella typhi, degraded Vi-strain 22, affecting 32 British visitors to Kos, Greece, in 1983 was attributed by a case—control study to the consumption of a salad at one hotel. This represents the first major outbreak of typhoid fever in which a salad has been identified as the vehicle. The source of the infection was probably a carrier in the hotel staff. The investigation demonstrates the importance of national surveillance, international cooperation, and epidemiological methods in the investigation and control of major outbreaks of infection. PMID:3488842

A FRAX model for the estimation of osteoporotic fracture probability in Portugal.

PubMed

Marques, Andréa; Mota, António; Canhão, Helena; Romeu, José Carlos; Machado, Pedro; Ruano, Afonso; Barbosa, Ana Paula; Dias, António Aroso; Silva, Daniel; Araújo, Domingos; Simões, Eugénia; Aguas, Fernanda; Rosendo, Inês; Silva, Inês; Crespo, Jorge; Alves, José Delgado; Costa, Lúcia; Mascarenhas, Mário; Lourenço, Óscar; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Lucas, Raquel; Roque, Raquel; Branco, Jaime Cunha; Tavares, Viviana; Johansson, Helena; Kanis, Jonh; Pereira da Silva, José António

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a Portuguese version of the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®). All cases of hip fracture occurred at or after 40 years of age were extracted from the Portuguese National Hospital Discharge Register from 2006 to 2010. Age and sex-ranked population estimates and mortality rates were obtained from National Statistics. Age- and gender stratified incidences were computed and the average of the five years under consideration was taken. Rates for other major fractures were imputed from the epidemiology of Sweden, as undertaken for most national FRAX® models. All methodological aspects and results were submitted to critical appraisal by a wide panel of national experts and representatives of the different stakeholders, including patients. Hip fracture incidence rates were higher in women than in men and increased with age. The lowest incidence was observed in 40-44 years group (14.1 and 4.0 per 100,000 inhabitants for men and women, respectively). The highest rate was observed among the 95-100 age-group (2,577.6 and 3,551.8/100,000 inhabitants, for men and women, respectively). The estimated ten-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture increased with decreasing T-score and with increasing age. Portugal has one of the lowest fracture incidences among European countries. The FRAX® tool has been successfully calibrated to the Portuguese population, and can now be used to estimate the ten-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in this country. All major stakeholders officially endorsed the Portuguese FRAX® model and co-authored this paper.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, K.S.

The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of thismore » research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.« less

Computer models of social processes: the case of migration.

PubMed

Beshers, J M

1967-06-01

The demographic model is a program for representing births, deaths, migration, and social mobility as social processes in a non-stationary stochastic process (Markovian). Transition probabilities for each age group are stored and then retrieved at the next appearance of that age cohort. In this way new transition probabilities can be calculated as a function of the old transition probabilities and of two successive distribution vectors.Transition probabilities can be calculated to represent effects of the whole age-by-state distribution at any given time period, too. Such effects as saturation or queuing may be represented by a market mechanism; for example, migration between metropolitan areas can be represented as depending upon job supplies and labor markets. Within metropolitan areas, migration can be represented as invasion and succession processes with tipping points (acceleration curves), and the market device has been extended to represent this phenomenon.Thus, the demographic model makes possible the representation of alternative classes of models of demographic processes. With each class of model one can deduce implied time series (varying parame-terswithin the class) and the output of the several classes can be compared to each other and to outside criteria, such as empirical time series.

Childhood Trauma and Psychiatric Disorders as Correlates of School Dropout in a National Sample of Young Adults

PubMed Central

Porche, Michelle V.; Fortuna, Lisa R.; Lin, Julia; Alegria, Margarita

2010-01-01

The effect of childhood trauma, psychiatric diagnoses, and mental health services on school dropout among U.S. born and immigrant youth is examined using data from the Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys (CPES), a nationally representative probability sample of African Americans, Afro-Caribbeans, Asians, Latinos, and non-Latino Whites, including 2532 young adults, ages 21 to 29. The dropout prevalence rate was 16% overall, with variation by childhood trauma, childhood psychiatric diagnosis, race/ethnicity, and nativity. Childhood substance and conduct disorders mediated the relationship between trauma and school dropout. Likelihood of dropout was decreased for Asians, and increased for African Americans and Latinos, compared to non-Latino Whites as a function of psychiatric disorders and trauma. Timing of U.S. immigration during adolescence increased risk of dropout. PMID:21410919

Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Wheeler, Russell L.; Wesson, Robert L.; Zeng, Yuehua; Boyd, Oliver S.; Perkins, David M.; Luco, Nicolas; Field, Edward H.; Wills, Chris J.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2008-01-01

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States (maps of Alaska and Hawaii as well as further information on hazard across the United States are available on our Web site at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/).

Adolescent accounts of the UK National Lottery and scratchcards: an analysis using Q-sorts.

PubMed

Wood, Richard T A; Griffiths, Mark D; Derevensky, Jeffrey L; Gupta, Rina

2002-01-01

The study examined adolescents' accounts of the UK National Lottery and scratchcards. Q-sorts were used to examine the views of 62 participants aged between 11 and 15 years of age. Findings identified four distinct accounts in relation to the National Lottery (Moral Opposition, Luck Seeking, Rationalist, & Uncertainty), and four distinct accounts in relation to scratchcards (Scepticism, Thrill-Seeking, Rationalist, & Libertarian). Some of the accounts identified described the UK National Lottery and scratchcards as bona fide forms of gambling. Reports indicated that adolescents were pessimistic about the chances of winning large sums of money, while other accounts demonstrated gambling misperceptions particularly in relation to their belief in luck and the laws of probability. It is argued that to fully understand why adolescents take part in these activities it is important to consider the diverse ways that adolescents represent these activities. These differing representations will have consequences for measures aimed at reducing, preventing, or treating adolescent problem gambling. The utility of Q-sorts as a technique for examining the views of problem and non-problem gamblers is also discussed.

Economic Outcomes among Latino Migrants to Spain and the United States: Differences by Source Region and Legal Status

PubMed Central

Connor, Phillip; Massey, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

Using representative national surveys, this paper compares economic outcomes among Latin American migrants to Spain and the United States in the first cross-national comparison using quantitative data. Considering the geographic location and social proximity of each country with respect to Latin America, we detect a critical selection effect whereby the majority of Latin American migrants to Spain originate in South America from middle class backgrounds, whereas most migrants to the United States are Central Americans of lower class origins. This selection effect accounts for cross-national differences in the probability of employment, occupational attainment, and wages earned. Despite differences in the origins and characteristics of Latino immigrants to each country, demographic and human and social capital factors appear to operate similarly in both places; and when models are estimated separately by legal status, we find that effects are more accentuated for undocumented compared with documented migrants, especially in the United States. PMID:21776179

Break-up of New Orleans Households after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Rendall, Michael S.

2011-01-01

Theory and evidence on disaster-induced population displacement have focused on individual and population-subgroup characteristics. Less is known about impacts on households. I estimate excess incidence of household break-up due to Hurricane Katrina by comparing a probability sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans resident adult household heads and non–household heads (N = 242), traced just over a year later, with a matched sample from a nationally representative survey over an equivalent period. One in three among all adult non–household heads, and one in two among adult children of household heads, had separated from the household head 1 year post-Katrina. These rates were, respectively, 2.2 and 2.7 times higher than national rates. A 50% higher prevalence of adult children living with parents in pre-Katrina New Orleans than nationally increased the hurricane’s impact on household break-up. Attention to living arrangements as a dimension of social vulnerability in disaster recovery is suggested. PMID:21709733

Using hidden Markov models to align multiple sequences.

PubMed

Mount, David W

2009-07-01

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment (msa) of proteins. In the model, each column of symbols in the alignment is represented by a frequency distribution of the symbols (called a "state"), and insertions and deletions are represented by other states. One moves through the model along a particular path from state to state in a Markov chain (i.e., random choice of next move), trying to match a given sequence. The next matching symbol is chosen from each state, recording its probability (frequency) and also the probability of going to that state from a previous one (the transition probability). State and transition probabilities are multiplied to obtain a probability of the given sequence. The hidden nature of the HMM is due to the lack of information about the value of a specific state, which is instead represented by a probability distribution over all possible values. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of HMMs in msa and presents algorithms for calculating an HMM and the conditions for producing the best HMM.

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

2009-01-01

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

Cohabitation, marriage, divorce, and remarriage in the United States.

PubMed

Bramlett, Matthew D; Mosher, William D

2002-07-01

This report presents national estimates of the probabilities of marital and cohabitation outcomes for women 15-44 years of age in 1995, by a wide variety of individual- and community-level characteristics. The life-table analysis in this report takes a life cycle approach to estimate the probabilities that: a woman will marry for the first time, an intact first cohabitation will make the transition to marriage, a first cohabitation will end in separation, a first marriage will end in separation or divorce, a disrupted first marriage will be followed by a new cohabitation, a separation from first marriage will result in divorce, a divorce from first marriage will be followed by remarriage, and a second marriage will end in separation or divorce. The life-table estimates presented here are based on a nationally representative sample of women 15-44 years of age in the United States in 1995 from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 5. The analyses show that various individual and community-level characteristics are related to the marital and cohabitational outcomes examined in this report. The results consistently demonstrate that the cohabitations and marriages of non-Hispanic black women are less stable than those of non-Hispanic white women. An analysis of trends over time suggests that differences by race/ethnicity are becoming more pronounced in recent years. Racial differences observed are associated with individual characteristics and with the characteristics of the communities in which the women live.

Estimating the high-arsenic domestic-well population in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayotte, Joseph; Medalie, Laura; Qi, Sharon L.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Nolan, Bernard T.

2017-01-01

Arsenic concentrations from 20 450 domestic wells in the U.S. were used to develop a logistic regression model of the probability of having arsenic >10 μg/L (“high arsenic”), which is presented at the county, state, and national scales. Variables representing geologic sources, geochemical, hydrologic, and physical features were among the significant predictors of high arsenic. For U.S. Census blocks, the mean probability of arsenic >10 μg/L was multiplied by the population using domestic wells to estimate the potential high-arsenic domestic-well population. Approximately 44.1 M people in the U.S. use water from domestic wells. The population in the conterminous U.S. using water from domestic wells with predicted arsenic concentration >10 μg/L is 2.1 M people (95% CI is 1.5 to 2.9 M). Although areas of the U.S. were underrepresented with arsenic data, predictive variables available in national data sets were used to estimate high arsenic in unsampled areas. Additionally, by predicting to all of the conterminous U.S., we identify areas of high and low potential exposure in areas of limited arsenic data. These areas may be viewed as potential areas to investigate further or to compare to more detailed local information. Linking predictive modeling to private well use information nationally, despite the uncertainty, is beneficial for broad screening of the population at risk from elevated arsenic in drinking water from private wells.

What Health Issues or Conditions Affect Women Differently Than Men?

MedlinePlus

... tract is structured. 13 National Cancer Institute. (2010). Probability of breast cancer in American women . Retrieved August ... from http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/detection/probability-breast-cancer National Cancer Institute. (2017). General information ...

How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes.

PubMed

Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

2017-03-01

European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. A total of 14 countries. Consensus groups of PCPs. Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = -0.16, 95% CI -0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = -0.57, 95% CI -0.83 to -0.12; ovary: r = -0.13, 95% CI -0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.62). There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a "PCP-as-gatekeeper" system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. KEY POINTS European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European countries show a wide variation in the probability of initial presentation to a PCP. The degree to which PCPs act as gatekeepers varies considerably from country to country. There is no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial presentation to a PCP and poorer cancer survival.

The influence of physical activity on cigarette smoking among adolescents: evidence from Add Health.

PubMed

Ali, Mir M; Amialchuk, Aliaksandr; Heller, Lauren R

2015-05-01

This article explored the relationship between physical activity and smoking behavior among adolescents using rich longitudinal survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents. Several endogeneity-corrected models were estimated to ascertain the effect of exercise on both the probability of being a smoker and the intensity of cigarette smoking. The analysis indicated that 1 additional weekly occurrence of exercise led to a 0.3% decline in the probability of being a smoker and led to a 4.1% reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked by a smoker during a month, a result that was robust to stratification by gender and race/ethnicity. Consistent with the national guidelines, frequencies of physical activity of at least 7 times per week appeared to exhibit the biggest benefits in terms of reduction in smoking for both genders and across races/ethnicities. Reduction in health-damaging smoking behavior among adolescents could be an additional benefit of being physically active. This research documented a new pathway by which even moderate increases in physical activity could result in improved health outcomes by reducing smoking. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Satisfaction with rehabilitative health care services among German and non-German nationals residing in Germany: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Brzoska, Patrick; Sauzet, Odile; Yilmaz-Aslan, Yüce; Widera, Teresia; Razum, Oliver

2017-01-01

Objectives Rehabilitation following medical conditions is largely offered as in-patient service in Germany. Foreign-national residents use rehabilitative services less often than Germans and attain less favourable treatment outcomes. These differences are independent of demographic, socioeconomic and health characteristics. Satisfaction with different aspects of rehabilitative care presumably affects the effectiveness of rehabilitative services. We compared the degree of satisfaction with different domains of the rehabilitative care process between Germans and non-German nationals residing in Germany. Methods We used data from a cross-sectional rehabilitation patient survey annually conducted by the German Statutory Pension Insurance Scheme. The sample comprises 274 513 individuals undergoing medical rehabilitation in 642 hospitals during the years 2007–2011. Participants rated their satisfaction with different domains of rehabilitation on multi-item scales. We dichotomised each scale to low/moderate and high satisfaction. For each domain, a multilevel adjusted logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine differences in the levels of satisfaction between German and non-German nationals. Average marginal effects (AMEs) and 99.5% CI were computed as effect estimates. AMEs represent differences in the probability for the occurrence of the outcome. Results Turkish nationals had a higher probability for being less satisfied with most aspects of their rehabilitation, with AMEs ranging between 0.05 (99.5% CI 0.00 to 0.09) for ‘satisfaction with psychological care’ and 0.11 (99.5% CI 0.08 to 0.14) for ‘satisfaction with treatments during rehabilitation’. Patients from former Yugoslavia and from Portugal/Spain/Italy/Greece were as satisfied as Germans with most aspects of their rehabilitation. Conclusions Turkish nationals are less satisfied with their rehabilitative care than other population groups. This may be attributable to the diversity of the population in terms of its expectations towards rehabilitation. Rehabilitative care institutions need to provide services that are sensitive to the needs of all clients. Diversity management can contribute to this process. PMID:28801401

Differences by Veteran/civilian status and gender in associations between childhood adversity and alcohol and drug use disorders.

PubMed

Evans, Elizabeth A; Upchurch, Dawn M; Simpson, Tracy; Hamilton, Alison B; Hoggatt, Katherine J

2018-04-01

To examine differences by US military Veteran status and gender in associations between childhood adversity and DSM-5 lifetime alcohol and drug use disorders (AUD/DUD). We analyzed nationally representative data from 3119 Veterans (n = 379 women; n = 2740 men) and 33,182 civilians (n = 20,066 women; n = 13,116 men) as provided by the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC-III). We used weighted multinomial logistic regression, tested interaction terms, and calculated predicted probabilities by Veteran status and gender, controlling for covariates. To test which specific moderation contrasts were statistically significant, we conducted pairwise comparisons. Among civilians, women had lower AUD and DUD prevalence than men; however, with more childhood adversity, this gender gap narrowed for AUD and widened for DUD. Among Veterans, in contrast, similar proportions of women and men had AUD and DUD; with more childhood adversity, AUD-predicted probability among men surpassed that of women. Childhood adversity elevated AUD probability among civilian women to levels exhibited by Veteran women. Among men, Veterans with more childhood adversity were more likely than civilians to have AUD, and less likely to have DUD. Childhood adversity alters the gender gap in AUD and DUD risk, and in ways that are different for Veterans compared with civilians. Department of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and community health centers can prevent and ameliorate the harmful effects of childhood adversity by adapting existing behavioral health efforts to be trauma informed, Veteran sensitive, and gender tailored.

Does part-time sick leave help individuals with mental disorders recover lost work capacity?

PubMed

Andrén, Daniela

2014-06-01

This paper aims to answer the question whether combining sick leave with some hours of work can help employees diagnosed with a mental disorder (MD) increase their probability of returning to work. Given the available data, this paper analyzes the impact of part-time sick leave (PTSL) on the probability of fully recovering lost work capacity for employees diagnosed with an MD. The effects of PTSL on the probability of fully recovering lost work capacity are estimated by a discrete choice one-factor model using data on a nationally representative sample extracted from the register of the National Agency of Social Insurance in Sweden and supplemented with information from questionnaires. All individuals in the sample were 20-64 years old and started a sickness spell of at least 15 days between 1 and 16 February 2001. We selected all employed individuals diagnosed with an MD, with a final sample of 629 individuals. The results show that PTSL is associated with a low likelihood of full recovery, yet the timing of the assignment is important. PTSL's effect is relatively low (0.015) when it is assigned in the beginning of the spell but relatively high (0.387), and statistically significant, when assigned after 60 days of full-time sick leave (FTSL). This suggests efficiency improvements from assigning employees with an MD diagnosis, when possible, to PTSL. The employment gains will be enhanced if employees with an MD diagnosis are encouraged to return to work part-time after 60 days or more of FTSL.

Landslide Hazard Probability Derived from Inherent and Dynamic Determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach combines an empirical inherent landslide probability with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining routed recharge from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model run in a Monte Carlo simulation. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by adjusting the dynamic model of stability with an empirically-based scalar representing the inherent stability of the landscape, creating a probabilistic quantitative measure of geohazard prediction at a 30-m resolution. Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and the empirical information further improves the discriminating ability of the integrated model. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged terrain with nearly 2,700 m (9,000 ft) of vertical relief, covering 2757 sq km (1064 sq mi) in northern Washington State, U.S.A.

Social Modulation or Hormonal Causation? Linkages of Testosterone with Sexual Activity and Relationship Quality in a Nationally Representative Longitudinal Sample of Older Adults.

PubMed

Das, Aniruddha; Sawin, Nicole

2016-11-01

This study used population-representative longitudinal data from the 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 waves of the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project-a probability sample of US adults aged 57-85 at baseline (N = 650 women and 620 men)-to examine the causal direction in linkages of endogenous testosterone (T) with sexual activity and relationship quality. For both genders, our autoregressive effects indicated a large amount of temporal stability, not just in individual-level attributes (T, masturbation) but also dyadic ones (partnered sex, relationship quality)-indicating that a need for more nuanced theories of relational processes. Cross-lagged results suggested gender-specific effects-generally more consistent with sexual or relational modulation of T than with hormonal causation. Specifically, men's findings indicated their T might be elevated by their sexual (masturbatory) activity but not vice versa, although androgen levels did lower men's subsequent relationship quality. Women's T, in contrast, was negatively influenced not just by their higher relationship quality but also by their more frequent partnered sex-perhaps reflecting a changing function of sexual activity in late life.

Flipping Out: Calculating Probability with a Coin Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Degner, Kate

2015-01-01

In the author's experience with this activity, students struggle with the idea of representativeness in probability. Therefore, this student misconception is part of the classroom discussion about the activities in this lesson. Representativeness is related to the (incorrect) idea that outcomes that seem more random are more likely to happen. This…

The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nilsson, Hakan; Olsson, Henrik; Juslin, Peter

2005-01-01

The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

Biophysics of NASA radiation quality factors.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-09-01

NASA has implemented new radiation quality factors (QFs) for projecting cancer risks from space radiation exposures to astronauts. The NASA QFs are based on particle track structure concepts with parameters derived from available radiobiology data, and NASA introduces distinct QFs for solid cancer and leukaemia risk estimates. The NASA model was reviewed by the US National Research Council and approved for use by NASA for risk assessment for International Space Station missions and trade studies of future exploration missions to Mars and other destinations. A key feature of the NASA QFs is to represent the uncertainty in the QF assessments and evaluate the importance of the QF uncertainty to overall uncertainties in cancer risk projections. In this article, the biophysical basis for the probability distribution functions representing QF uncertainties was reviewed, and approaches needed to reduce uncertainties were discussed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Political Impact of the New Hispanic Second Generation

PubMed Central

Logan, John R.; Oh, Sookhee; Darrah, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The rapid growth of the Hispanic population in the United States, particularly those of the second generation, who have automatic rights of citizenship, could be expected to result in increased influence and representation in politics for this group. We show that the effect of a sheer growth in numbers at the national level is diminished by several factors: low probabilities of naturalisation by Hispanic immigrants; non-participation in voting, especially by the US-born generations; and concentration of growth in Congressional Districts that already have Hispanic Representatives. It is a challenge for public policy to reduce the lag between population growth and political representation. PMID:24009469

Methodological considerations in using complex survey data: an applied example with the Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey.

PubMed

Hahs-Vaughn, Debbie L; McWayne, Christine M; Bulotsky-Shearer, Rebecca J; Wen, Xiaoli; Faria, Ann-Marie

2011-06-01

Complex survey data are collected by means other than simple random samples. This creates two analytical issues: nonindependence and unequal selection probability. Failing to address these issues results in underestimated standard errors and biased parameter estimates. Using data from the nationally representative Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey (FACES; 1997 and 2000 cohorts), three diverse multilevel models are presented that illustrate differences in results depending on addressing or ignoring the complex sampling issues. Limitations of using complex survey data are reported, along with recommendations for reporting complex sample results. © The Author(s) 2011

On the importance of incorporating sampling weights in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Occupancy models are used extensively to assess wildlife-habitat associations and to predict species distributions across large geographic regions. Occupancy models were developed as a tool to properly account for imperfect detection of a species. Current guidelines on survey design requirements for occupancy models focus on the number of sample units and the pattern of revisits to a sample unit within a season. We focus on the sampling design or how the sample units are selected in geographic space (e.g., stratified, simple random, unequal probability, etc). In a probability design, each sample unit has a sample weight which quantifies the number of sample units it represents in the finite (oftentimes areal) sampling frame. We demonstrate the importance of including sampling weights in occupancy model estimation when the design is not a simple random sample or equal probability design. We assume a finite areal sampling frame as proposed for a national bat monitoring program. We compare several unequal and equal probability designs and varying sampling intensity within a simulation study. We found the traditional single season occupancy model produced biased estimates of occupancy and lower confidence interval coverage rates compared to occupancy models that accounted for the sampling design. We also discuss how our findings inform the analyses proposed for the nascent North American Bat Monitoring Program and other collaborative synthesis efforts that propose h

Nuclear Decay Data Evaluations at IFIN-HH, Romania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luca, A., E-mail: aluca@nipne.ro

2014-06-15

An IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Updated Decay Data Library for Actinides was implemented during the period 2005-2012. The author participated in the CRP, as a representative of the Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering (IFIN-HH), the Radionuclide Metrology Laboratory. Decay data for five actinide nuclides were evaluated by the author, according to the procedures and rules of the international cooperation Decay Data Evaluation Project (DDEP): {sup 236}U, {sup 234}Th, {sup 228}Ra, {sup 211}Bi and {sup 211}Po. The most important results, conclusions and some recommendations of the evaluator are presented. The IFIN-HH involvement in several newmore » international and national research projects in the field is briefly mentioned; new evaluations and experimental determination of some nuclear decay data (photon absolute emission probability, half-life) for nuclear medicine applications are foreseen.« less

Childhood trauma and psychiatric disorders as correlates of school dropout in a national sample of young adults.

PubMed

Porche, Michelle V; Fortuna, Lisa R; Lin, Julia; Alegria, Margarita

2011-01-01

The effect of childhood trauma, psychiatric diagnoses, and mental health services on school dropout among U.S.-born and immigrant youth is examined using data from the Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys, a nationally representative probability sample of African Americans, Afro-Caribbeans, Asians, Latinos, and non-Latino Whites, including 2,532 young adults, aged 21-29. The dropout prevalence rate was 16% overall, with variation by childhood trauma, childhood psychiatric diagnosis, race/ethnicity, and nativity. Childhood substance and conduct disorders mediated the relation between trauma and school dropout. Likelihood of dropout was decreased for Asians, and increased for African Americans and Latinos, compared to non-Latino Whites as a function of psychiatric disorders and trauma. Timing of U.S. immigration during adolescence increased risk of dropout. © 2011 The Authors. Child Development © 2011 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Food Insecurity and the Negative Impact on Brazilian Children's Health-Why Does Food Security Matter for Our Future Prosperity? Brazilian National Survey (PNDS 2006/07).

PubMed

Poblacion, Ana Paula; Cook, John T; Marín-León, Leticia; Segall-Corrêa, Ana Maria; Silveira, Jonas A C; Konstantyner, Tulio; Taddei, José Augusto A C

2016-12-01

Food insecurity (FI) refers to limited or uncertain access to food resulting from financial constraints. Numerous studies have shown association between FI and adverse health outcomes among adults and children around the world, but in Brazil, such information is scarce, especially if referring to nationally representative information. To test for an independent association between FI and health outcomes. Most recent Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey using nationally representative complex probability sampling. Participants were 3923 children <5 years of age, each representing a household. Data from the validated Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale were dichotomized as food secure (food security/mild FI) or food insecure (moderate FI/severe FI). Poisson regression was used to test for associations between FI and various health indicators. Models adjusted for socioeconomic and demographic variables showed that children hospitalized for pneumonia or diarrhea were 30% more prevalent in FI households (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.3; 1.1-1.6). Underweight children were 40% more prevalent in FI households (aPR: 1.4; 1.1-1.7). Children who didn't eat meat and fruits and vegetables every day were 20% and 70% more prevalent in FI households (aPR: 1.2; 1.1-1.4 and aPR: 1.7; 1.3-2.3), respectively. Children who grow up in food-insecure households have been shown to have worse health conditions than those in food-secure households. Consequently, their human capital accumulation and work-life productivity are likely to be reduced in the future, leading them into adulthood less capable of generating sufficient income, resulting in a cycle of intergenerational poverty and FI. © The Author(s) 2016.

Probability of Finding Marrow Unrelated Donor (MUD) for an Indian patient in a Multi-national Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) Registry.

PubMed

Tiwari, Aseem K; Bhati-Kushwaha, Himakshi; Kukreja, Pooja; Mishra, Vikash C; Tyagi, Neetu; Sharma, Ashish; Raina, Vimarsh

2015-06-01

With an increase in the number of transplants happening globally, hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) transplantation from matched unrelated donor (MUD) has begun. The increasing trend of MUD transplants across countries has been largely facilitated with the conspicuous growth of volunteer HSC donor noted in the last decade i.e. 8 million HSC donors in 2002 to more than 22 million in 2013 registered in 71 member registries of the Bone Marrow Donor Worldwide (BMDW). Some populations of the world are still very poorly represented in these registries. Since, the chances of successful engraftment and disease free survival are directly proportional to the HLA compatibility between the recipient and the prospective donor, the diversity of the HLA system at the antigenic and allelic level and the heterogeneity of HLA data of the registered donors has a bearing on the probability of finding a volunteer unrelated HSC donor for patients from such populations. In the present study 126 patients were identified suffering from hematological diseases requiring MUD transplant. Their HLA typing was performed and search was done using BMDW database. The search results for these Indian patients in the multinational registry as well as in the Indian Registries were analyzed using mean, range, standard deviation and finally evaluated in terms of probability for finding matched donor (MUD). Total Asian population is only 11 % in the BMDW making it difficult to find a MUD for an Asian patient. The current study supports this, experimentally; revealing that the probability of finding an allele match for an Indian patient in the multinational Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) registries is 16 % and a dismal 0.008 % in the Indian registries (donors in Indian registries is just 33,678 as compared to 22.5 million in BMDW). This greatly, emphasizes on enhancing the number of Indian donors in Indian and multi-national registries.

The fewer and the better: prioritization of populations for conservation under limited resources, a genetic study with Borderea pyrenaica (Dioscoreaceae) in the Pyrenean National Park.

PubMed

Segarra-Moragues, J G; Catalán, P

2010-03-01

Taxa considered under low International Union for the Conservation of Nature categories of extinction risk often represent cases of concern to conservation biology. Their high relative abundance precludes management of the entire range due to limited economical resources. Therefore, they require a cost-effective management plan. Borderea pyrenaica (Dioscoreaceae), an endemic plant of the Central Pyrenees and pre-Pyrenees, reaches the French side of the Central Pyrenees on its narrow northernmost boundary at Gavarnie (Parc National des Pyrenées, PNP, France), where it is protected as Vulnerable and considered a priority species. We have used nuclear microsatellite population genetic data to design a management strategy for the 11 populations of B. pyrenaica present in this area and to identify Relevant Genetic Units for its Conservation. The 18 SSR loci analysed identified 56 alleles, 24 of which fulfilled the rarity criterion for this set of populations. Genetic structuring of populations and representativity values derived from regression analyses of probabilities of loss of rare alleles together support differentiation of the B. pyrenaica populations into different management units. Estimates derived from G(ST) values indicate that five populations would adequately represent the 99.9% of the variation relative to most common alleles whereas calculations based on representativity values indicated that these five populations should equate the proportion 2:2:1 from the three different phylogeographical subdivisions of Gavarnie (Western, Eastern-1 and Eastern-2 ranges). This scheme would allow the preservation of 98.21% of the total B. pyrenaica alleles present in Gavarnie, according to the post glacial history of its populations. This conservation genetic approach could be applied to other low-extinction risk categories of extremely rare and subalpine plants in need of regulatory plans in European National Parks and Natural Reserves.

Progress in Reversing the HIV Epidemic through Intensified Access to Antiretroviral Therapy: Results from a Nationally Representative Population-Based Survey in Kenya, 2012

PubMed Central

Kim, Andrea A.; Mukui, Irene; N’gan’ga, Lucy; Katana, Abraham; Koros, Dan; Wamicwe, Joyce; De Cock, Kevin M.

2016-01-01

Background In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) called for 90% of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) to know their status, 90% of these to be on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of these to be virally suppressed by 2020 (90-90-90). It is not clear whether planned ART scale-up in countries whose eligibility criteria for ART initiation are based on recommendations from the 2013 World Health Organization treatment guidelines will be sufficient to meet UNAIDS' new global targets. Materials and Methods Using data from a nationally representative population-based household survey of persons in Kenya we compared coverage and unmet need associated with HIV diagnosis, ART, and viral suppression among PLHIV aged 15–64 years in 2012 based on criteria outlined in the 2014 national ART guidelines and UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 goals. Estimates were weighted to account for sampling probability and nonresponse. Results Eight in ten PLHIV aged 15–64 years needed ART based on treatment eligibility. Need for treatment based on the national treatment policy was 97.4% of treatment need based on UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 goals, requiring an excess of 24,000 PLHIV to access treatment beyond those eligible for ART to achieve UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 treatment target. The gap in treatment coverage was high, ranging from 43.1% nationally to 52.3% in Nyanza among treatment-eligible PLHIV and 44.6% nationally to 52.4% in Nyanza among all PLHIV. Conclusion Maintaining the current pace of ART scale-up in Kenya will result in thousands of PLHIV unreached, many with high viral load and at-risk of transmitting infection to others. Careful strategies for reaching 90-90-90 will be instrumental in determining whether intensified access to treatment can be achieved to reach all who require ART. PMID:26930291

Total coliform and E. coli in public water systems using undisinfected ground water in the United States.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Javier, Julie

2017-06-01

Public water systems (PWSs) in the United States generate total coliform (TC) and Escherichia coli (EC) monitoring data, as required by the Total Coliform Rule (TCR). We analyzed data generated in 2011 by approximately 38,000 small (serving fewer than 4101 individuals) undisinfected public water systems (PWSs). We used statistical modeling to characterize a distribution of TC detection probabilities for each of nine groupings of PWSs based on system type (community, non-transient non-community, and transient non-community) and population served (less than 101, 101-1000 and 1001-4100 people). We found that among PWS types sampled in 2011, on average, undisinfected transient PWSs test positive for TC 4.3% of the time as compared with 3% for undisinfected non-transient PWSs and 2.5% for undisinfected community PWSs. Within each type of PWS, the smaller systems have higher median TC detection than the larger systems. All TC-positive samples were assayed for EC. Among TC-positive samples from small undisinfected PWSs, EC is detected in about 5% of samples, regardless of PWS type or size. We evaluated the upper tail of the TC detection probability distributions and found that significant percentages of some system types have high TC detection probabilities. For example, assuming the systems providing data are nationally-representative, then 5.0% of the ∼50,000 small undisinfected transient PWSs in the U.S. have TC detection probabilities of 20% or more. Communities with such high TC detection probabilities may have elevated risk of acute gastrointestinal (AGI) illness - perhaps as great or greater than the attributable risk to drinking water (6-22%) calculated for 14 Wisconsin community PWSs with much lower TC detection probabilities (about 2.3%, Borchardt et al., 2012). Published by Elsevier GmbH.

A Seroprevalence Study of Hepatitis B and C Virus Infections in a Hospitalized Population in Romania, an Opportunity for a Better National Prevention and Control Strategy.

PubMed

Popovici, Odette; Molnar, Geza B; Popovici, Florin; Janţă, Denisa; Pistol, Adriana; Azoicăi, Doina

2016-03-01

The most recent prevalence data for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Romania came from an ESEN 2 study (2002), and from a Romanian population-based study performed in 2008. Most of the previous studies were regional and performed in specific groups (blood donors, pregnant women, institutionalized people, etc) and had limited representativeness at the national level, both for HBV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The scarcity of prevalence data for HBV and HCV infection coming from the routine surveillance was also considered. The aim of our study was to obtain overall and age group specific estimates of the prevalence of HBV and HCV infections markers in Romania, in order to recommend evidence-based public health interventions. The main outcome was the proportion of persons with HBV, HCV and HBV+HCV infection markers, overall and by age group and gender. Our seroprevalence study ensured national representativeness for the targeted hospitalized population. A prospective collection of serum samples in hospital laboratories was completed between September and November 2013, using a systematic sampling. The study respected the confidentiality of personal data. We calculated the sample size using EpiInfo7 and used Z test - Two-tailed probability for statistical significance. The overall prevalence data estimated in our study were HBc Ab 28%, HBs Ag 4.2%, HBs Ab regardless of titer 64.1%, HBs Ab in titer of at least 10 mUI/ml and negative HBc Ab 17.5%; HCV Ab 5.6%; HBc Ab and HCV Ab 2.8%, as markers of double infection. The overall prevalence data estimated in our study for HBs Ag (4.2%) and HCV Ab (5.6%) correspond to a medium endemicity based on the WHO criteria. The estimated prevalence of HBV and HCV infection markers in the study population should represent an opportunity for a better national prevention and control strategy.

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.

2017-12-01

The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

Alcohol and labor supply: the case of Iceland.

PubMed

Asgeirsdottir, Tinna Laufey; McGeary, Kerry Anne

2009-10-01

At a time when the government of Iceland is considering privatization of alcohol sales and a reduction of its governmental fees, it is timely to estimate the potential effects of this policy change. Given that the privatization of sales coupled with a tax reduction should lead to a decrease in the unit price of alcohol, one would expect the quantity consumed to increase. While it is of interest to project the impact of the proposed bill on the market for alcohol, another important consideration is the impact that increased alcohol consumption and, more specifically, probable alcohol misuse would have on other markets in Iceland. The only available study on this subject using Icelandic data yields surprising results. Tómasson et al. (Scand J Public Health 32:47-52, 2004) unexpectedly found no effect of probable alcohol abuse on sick leave. A logical next step would be to examine the effect of probable alcohol abuse on other important labor-market outcomes. Nationally representative survey data from 2002 allow for an analysis of probable misuse of alcohol and labor-supply choices. Labor-supply choices are considered with reference to possible effects of policies already in force, as well as proposed changes to current policies. Contrary to intuition, but in agreement with the previously mentioned Icelandic study, the adverse effects of probable misuse of alcohol on employment status or hours worked are not confirmed within this sample. The reasons for the results are unclear, although some suggestions are hypothesized. Currently, data to test those theories convincingly are not available.

Potential ungulate prey for Gray Wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Francis J.; Mack, John A.

1993-01-01

Data were gathered for six ungulate species that reside in or near Yellowstone National Park. If gray wolves (Canis lupus) are reintroduced into the Yellowstone area, their avoidance of human activities or their management by human may determine their range. Therefore, the area of wolf occupation cannot be predicted now. We restricted our analysis to Yellowstone National Park and to the adjacent national forest wilderness areas. We included mostly ungulate herds that summer inside or adjacent to the park and that would probably be affected by wolves. Our wolf study area includes Yellowstone National Park and adjacent wilderness areas most likely to be occupied by wolves. We reviewed publications, park records, survey reports, and state fish and game surveys and reports for statistics on ungulate populations. These data [provide an overview of ungulate populations and harvests. Each ungulate herd is described in detail. We restricted our analysis to 1980-89, because population surveys were more complete during that period and because population estimates of most ungulate populations had increased by the 1980's. We feel the higher estimates of the 1980's reflect more up-to-date techniques and are most representative of the situation into which the wolves would be reintroduced.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Quantitative Analysis of Land Loss in Coastal Louisiana Using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wales, P. M.; Kuszmaul, J.; Roberts, C.

2005-12-01

For the past thirty-five years the land loss along the Louisiana Coast has been recognized as a growing problem. One of the clearest indicators of this land loss is that in 2000 smooth cord grass (spartina alterniflora) was turning brown well before its normal hibernation period. Over 100,000 acres of marsh were affected by the 2000 browning. In 2001 data were collected using low altitude helicopter based transects of the coast, with 7,400 data points being collected by researchers at the USGS, National Wetlands Research Center, and Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. The surveys contained data describing the characteristics of the marsh, including latitude, longitude, marsh condition, marsh color, percent vegetated, and marsh die-back. Creating a model that combines remote sensing images, field data, and statistical analysis to develop a methodology for estimating the margin of error in measurements of coastal land loss (erosion) is the ultimate goal of the study. A model was successfully created using a series of band combinations (used as predictive variables). The most successful band combinations or predictive variables were the braud value [(Sum Visible TM Bands - Sum Infrared TM Bands)/(Sum Visible TM Bands + Sum Infrared TM Bands)], TM band 7/ TM band 2, brightness, NDVI, wetness, vegetation index, and a 7x7 autocovariate nearest neighbor floating window. The model values were used to generate the logistic regression model. A new image was created based on the logistic regression probability equation where each pixel represents the probability of finding water or non-water at that location in each image. Pixels within each image that have a high probability of representing water have a value close to 1 and pixels with a low probability of representing water have a value close to 0. A logistic regression model is proposed that uses seven independent variables. This model yields an accurate classification in 86.5% of the locations considered in the 1997 and 2001 survey locations. When the logistic regression was modeled to the satellite imagery of the entire Louisiana Coast study area a statewide loss was estimated to be 358 mi2 to 368 mi2, from 1997 to 2001, using two different methods for estimating land loss.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lin, John K; Singh, Gitanjali M; Paciorek, Christopher J; Cowan, Melanie J; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A; Lim, Stephen S; Riley, Leanne M; Ezzati, Majid

2011-02-12

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ever-Use and Curiosity About Cigarettes, Cigars, Smokeless Tobacco, and Electronic Cigarettes Among US Middle and High School Students, 2012-2014.

PubMed

Persoskie, Alexander; Donaldson, Elisabeth A; King, Brian A

2016-09-22

Among young people, curiosity about tobacco products is a primary reason for tobacco experimentation and is a risk factor for future use. We examined whether curiosity about and ever-use of tobacco products among US middle and high school students changed from 2012 to 2014. Data came from the 2012 and 2014 National Youth Tobacco Surveys, nationally representative surveys of US students in grades 6 through 12. For cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, and e-cigarettes (2014 only), students were classified as ever-users or never-users of each product. Among never-users, curiosity about using each product was assessed by asking participants if they had "definitely," "probably," "probably not," or "definitely not" been curious about using the product. From 2012 to 2014, there were declines in ever-use of cigarettes (26% to 22%; P = .005) and cigars (21% to 18%; P = .003) overall and among students who were Hispanic (cigarettes, P = .001; cigars, P = .001) or black (cigarettes, P = .004; cigars, P = .01). The proportion of never-users reporting they were "definitely not" curious increased for cigarettes (51% to 54%; P = .01) and cigars (60% to 63%; P = .03). Ever-use and curiosity about smokeless tobacco did not change significantly from 2012 to 2014. In 2014, the proportion of young people who were "definitely" or "probably" curious never-users of each product was as follows: cigarettes, 11.4%; e-cigarettes, 10.8%; cigars, 10.3%; and smokeless tobacco, 4.4%. The proportion of US students who are never users and are not curious about cigarettes and cigars increased. However, many young people remain curious about tobacco products, including e-cigarettes. Understanding factors driving curiosity can inform tobacco use prevention for youth.

Geochemistry and stratigraphic correlation of basalt lavas beneath the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, M.F.; Bartholomay, R.C.; Hughes, S.S.

1997-01-01

Thirty-nine samples of basaltic core were collected from wells 121 and 123, located approximately 1.8 km apart north and south of the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Samples were collected from depths ranging from 15 to 221 m below land surface for the purpose of establishing stratigraphic correlations between these two wells. Elemental analyses indicate that the basalts consist of three principal chemical types. Two of these types are each represented by a single basalt flow in each well. The third chemical type is represented by many basalt flows and includes a broad range of chemical compositions that is distinguished from the other two types. Basalt flows within the third type were identified by hierarchical K-cluster analysis of 14 representative elements: Fe, Ca, K, Na, Sc, Co, La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Yb, Hf, Ta, and Th. Cluster analyses indicate correlations of basalt flows between wells 121 and 123 at depths of approximately 38-40 m, 125-128 m, 131-137 m, 149-158 m, and 183-198 m. Probable correlations also are indicated for at least seven other depth intervals. Basalt flows in several depth intervals do not correlate on the basis of chemical compositions, thus reflecting possible flow margins in the sequence between the wells. Multi-element chemical data provide a useful method for determining stratigraphic correlations of basalt in the upper 1-2 km of the eastern Snake River Plain.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, J.F.

The global proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has become one of the most immediate and dangerous threats to U.S. national security. Ballistic missiles were used in four of the last six major wars. Some 190 missiles were fired by Iraqis over a six week period at Iranian cities in 1988, during the 'War of the Cities'. Iraq's firing of Scuds against coalition forces and Israel during the Gulf War provided a vivid reminder of the threat these weapons can present to the world community. During the 1980's, many Third World countries assigned a high prioritymore » to the acquisition of ballistic missiles. By 1991, more than 20 of these nations either possessed ballistic missiles or were attempting to obtain them. Today 43 nations possess ballistic missiles. Seventeen of these probably have a nuclear weapon capability, with 20 of them possessing also a chemical or biological capability. This paper seeks to: define the military challenge ballistic missiles represent; review current U.S. counter-proliferation and nonproliferation initiatives and, finally make recommendations on other potential methods or considerations to reduce ballistic missile proliferation.« less

Trends Concerning Four Misconceptions in Students' Intuitively-Based Probabilistic Reasoning Sourced in the Heuristic of Representativeness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kustos, Paul Nicholas

2010-01-01

Student difficulty in the study of probability arises in intuitively-based misconceptions derived from heuristics. One such heuristic, the one of note for this research study, is that of representativeness, in which an individual informally assesses the probability of an event based on the degree to which the event is similar to the sample from…

Prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model.

PubMed

Guruprasad, K; Shukla, S

2003-04-01

We evaluated the prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model with an enlarged representative protein data set selected from the Protein Data Bank. Our results show that the probability values derived from a data set comprising 425 protein chains yielded an overall beta-turn prediction accuracy 68.74%, compared with 94.7% reported earlier on a data set of 30 proteins using the same method. However, we noted that the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy using probability values derived from the 30-protein data set reduces to 40.74% when tested on the data set comprising 425 protein chains. In contrast, using probability values derived from the 425 data set used in this analysis, the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy yielded consistent results when tested on either the 30-protein data set (64.62%) used earlier or a more recent representative data set comprising 619 protein chains (64.66%) or on a jackknife data set comprising 476 representative protein chains (63.38%). We therefore recommend the use of probability values derived from the 425 representative protein chains data set reported here, which gives more realistic and consistent predictions of beta-turns from amino acid sequences.

Slipping and tripping: fall injuries in adults associated with rugs and carpets

PubMed Central

Rosen, Tony; Mack, Karin A.; Noonan, Rita K.

2013-01-01

Abstract: Background: Falls are a leading cause of unintentional injury among adults age 65 years and older. Loose, unsecured rugs and damaged carpets with curled edges, are recognized environmental hazards that may contribute to falls. To characterize nonfatal, unintentional fall-related injuries associated with rugs and carpets in adults aged 65 years and older. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of surveillance data of injuries treated in hospital emergency departments (EDs) during 2001–2008. We used the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program, which collects data from a nationally representative stratified probability sample of 66 U.S. hospital EDs. Sample weights were used to make national estimates. Results: Annually, an estimated 37,991 adults age 65 years or older were treated in U.S. EDs for falls associated with carpets (54.2%) and rugs (45.8%). Most falls (72.8%) occurred at home. Women represented 80.2% of fall injuries. The most common location for fall injuries in the home was the bathroom (35.7%). Frequent fall injuries occurred at the transition between carpet/rug and non-carpet/rug, on wet carpets or rugs, and while hurrying to the bathroom. Conclusions: Fall injuries associated with rugs and carpets are common and may cause potentially severe injuries. Older adults, their caregivers, and emergency and primary care physicians should be aware of the significant risk for fall injuries and of environmental modifications that may reduce that risk. PMID:22868399

Understanding and Increasing Influenza Vaccination Acceptance: Insights from a 2016 National Survey of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Cacciatore, Michael A.; Len-Ríos, María E.

2018-01-01

Background: The percentage of adults in the U.S. getting seasonal influenza vaccination has not changed significantly since 2013 and remains far below the federal government’s 70% target. Objective: This study assessed and identified characteristics, experiences, and beliefs associated with influenza vaccination using a nationally representative survey of 1005 U.S. adults 19 years old and older. Methods: The sample was drawn from the National Opinion Research Center’s AmeriSpeak Panel, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. household population. Results: Overall, 42.3% received an influenza vaccination in the past 12 months, with rates highest for non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks and those 65 years old and older. Hispanic respondents and those under 64 years old were much less likely to get an influenza vaccination. They were also less aware of the recommendation, less informed about influenza and the benefits of vaccination, and least confident in the vaccine. Conclusions: Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in the U.S. requires a greater focus on 19–64 year-olds, particularly those 50 to 64, Hispanics and continued focus on those with diabetes and asthma. Efforts need to increase awareness of influenza vaccination recommendations, foster a sense of being well informed about influenza vaccination benefits and the risks associated with non-vaccination, and increase confidence that there are meaningful benefits from receiving an influenza vaccination. PMID:29642624

Educational Attainment by Life Course Sexual Attraction: Prevalence and Correlates in a Nationally Representative Sample of Young Adults

PubMed Central

Walsemann, Katrina M.; Lindley, Lisa L.; Gentile, Danielle; Welihindha, Shehan V.

2014-01-01

Researchers know relatively little about the educational attainment of sexual minorities, despite the fact that educational attainment is consistently associated with a range of social, economic, and health outcomes. We examined whether sexual attraction in adolescence and early adulthood was associated with educational attainment in early adulthood among a nationally representative sample of US young adults. We analyzed Waves I and IV restricted data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n=14,111). Sexual orientation was assessed using self-reports of romantic attraction in Waves I (adolescence) and IV (adulthood). Multinomial regression models were estimated and all analyses were stratified by gender. Women attracted to the same-sex in adulthood only had lower educational attainment compared to women attracted only to the opposite-sex in adolescence and adulthood. Men attracted to the same-sex in adolescence only had lower educational attainment compared to men attracted only to the opposite-sex in adolescence and adulthood. Adolescent experiences and academic performance attenuated educational disparities among men and women. Adjustment for adolescent experiences also revealed a suppression effect; women attracted to the same-sex in adolescence and adulthood had lower predicted probabilities of having a high school diploma or less compared to women attracted only to the opposite-sex in adolescence and adulthood. Our findings challenge previous research documenting higher educational attainment among sexual minorities in the US. Additional population-based studies documenting the educational attainment of sexual minority adults are needed. PMID:25382888

Polymerase chain reaction-based clonality testing in tissue samples with reactive lymphoproliferations: usefulness and pitfalls. A report of the BIOMED-2 Concerted Action BMH4-CT98-3936.

PubMed

Langerak, A W; Molina, T J; Lavender, F L; Pearson, D; Flohr, T; Sambade, C; Schuuring, E; Al Saati, T; van Dongen, J J M; van Krieken, J H J M

2007-02-01

Lymphoproliferations are generally diagnosed via histomorphology and immunohistochemistry. Although mostly conclusive, occasionally the differential diagnosis between reactive lesions and malignant lymphomas is difficult. In such cases molecular clonality studies of immunoglobulin (Ig)/T-cell receptor (TCR) rearrangements can be useful. Here we address the issue of clonality assessment in 106 histologically defined reactive lesions, using the standardized BIOMED-2 Ig/TCR multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) heteroduplex and GeneScan assays. Samples were reviewed nationally, except 10% random cases and cases with clonal results selected for additional international panel review. In total 75% (79/106) only showed polyclonal Ig/TCR targets (type I), whereas another 15% (16/106) represent probably polyclonal cases, with weak Ig/TCR (oligo)clonality in an otherwise polyclonal background (type II). Interestingly, in 10% (11/106) clear monoclonal Ig/TCR products were observed (types III/IV), which prompted further pathological review. Clonal cases included two missed lymphomas in national review and nine cases that could be explained as diagnostically difficult cases or probable lymphomas upon additional review. Our data show that the BIOMED-2 Ig/TCR multiplex PCR assays are very helpful in confirming the polyclonal character in the vast majority of reactive lesions. However, clonality detection in a minority should lead to detailed pathological review, including close interaction between pathologist and molecular biologist.

Victimization and PTSD-like states in an Icelandic youth probability sample.

PubMed

Bödvarsdóttir, Iris; Elklit, Ask

2007-10-01

Although adolescence in many cases is a period of rebellion and experimentation with new behaviors and roles, the exposure of adolescents to life-threatening and violent events has rarely been investigated in national probability studies using a broad range of events. In an Icelandic national representative sample of 206 9th-grade students (mean = 14.5 years), the prevalence of 20 potentially traumatic events and negative life events was reported, along with the psychological impact of these events. Seventy-four percent of the girls and 79 percent of the boys were exposed to at least one event. The most common events were the death of a family member, threat of violence, and traffic accidents. The estimated lifetime prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder-like states (PTSD; DSM-IV, APA, 1994 1) was 16 percent, whereas another 12 percent reached a sub-clinical level of PTSD-like states (missing the full diagnosis with one symptom). Following exposure, girls suffered from PTSD-like states almost twice as often as boys. Gender, mothers' education, and single-parenthood were associated with specific events. The odds ratios and 95% CI for PTSD-like states given a specific event are reported. Being exposed to multiple potentially traumatic events was associated with an increase in PTSD-like states. The findings indicate substantial mental health problems in adolescents that are associated with various types of potentially traumatic exposure.

How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes

PubMed Central

Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

2017-01-01

Objective European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Design Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. Setting A total of 14 countries. Subjects Consensus groups of PCPs. Main outcome measures Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. Results There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = −0.16, 95% CI −0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = −0.57, 95% CI −0.83 to −0.12; ovary: r = −0.13, 95% CI −0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI −0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.62). Conclusions There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a “PCP-as-gatekeeper” system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. Key points European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European countries show a wide variation in the probability of initial presentation to a PCP. The degree to which PCPs act as gatekeepers varies considerably from country to country. There is no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial presentation to a PCP and poorer cancer survival. PMID:28277044

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E

2014-12-01

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Tracing the cigarette epidemic: an age-period-cohort study of education, gender and smoking using a pseudo-panel approach.

PubMed

Vedøy, Tord F

2014-11-01

This study examined if temporal variations in daily cigarette smoking and never smoking among groups with different levels of education fit the pattern proposed by the theory of diffusion of innovations (TDI), while taking into account the separate effects of age, period and birth cohort (APC). Aggregated data from nationally representative interview surveys from Norway from 1976 to 2010 was used to calculate probabilities of smoking using an APC approach in which the period variable was normalized to pick up short term cyclical effects. Results showed that educational differences in smoking over time were more strongly determined by birth cohort membership than variations in smoking behavior across the life course. The probability of daily smoking decreased faster across cohorts among higher compared to lower educated. In contrast, the change in probability of never having smoked across cohorts was similar in the two education groups, but stronger among men compared to women. Moreover, educational differences in both daily and never smoking increased among early cohorts and leveled off among late cohorts. The results emphasizes the importance of birth cohort for social change and are consistent with TDI, which posits that smoking behavior diffuse through the social structure over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of the first child predict the parents' probability of having another child.

PubMed

Jokela, Markus

2010-07-01

In a sample of 7,695 families in the prospective, nationally representative British Millennium Cohort Study, this study examined whether characteristics of the 1st-born child predicted parents' timing and probability of having another child within 5 years after the 1st child's birth. Infant temperament was assessed with the Carey Infant Temperament Scale (Carey, 1972; Carey & McDevitt, 1978) at age 9 months, childhood socioemotional and behavioral characteristics with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (Goodman, 2001), and childhood cognitive ability with the Bracken School Readiness Assessment (Bracken, 2002) test at age 3 years. Survival analysis modeling indicated that the 1st child's low reactivity to novelty in infancy, high prosociality, low conduct problems, and high cognitive ability in childhood were associated with increased probability of parents having another child. Except for reactivity to novelty, these associations became stronger with time. High emotional symptoms were also positively associated with childbearing, but this was likely to reflect reverse causality-that is, the effect of sibling birth on the 1st child's adjustment. The results suggest that child effects, particularly those related to the child's cognitive ability, adaptability to novelty, and prosocial behavior, may be relevant to parents' future childbearing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

2018-04-01

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Evaluation of nutrient quality-assurance data for Alexanders and Mount Rock Spring basins, Cumberland County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witt, E. C.; Hippe, D.J.; Giovannitti, R.M.

1992-01-01

A total of 304 nutrient samples were collected from May 1990 through September 1991 to determine concentrations and loads of nutrients in water discharged from two spring basins in Cumberland County, Pa. Fifty-four percent of these nutrient samples were for the evaluation of (1) laboratory consistency, (2) container and preservative cleanliness, (3) maintenance of analyte representativeness as affected by three different preservation methods, and (4) comparison of analyte results with the "Most Probable Value" for Standard Reference Water Samples. Results of 37 duplicate analyses indicate that the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Laboratories (principal laboratory) remained within its ±10 percent goal for all but one analyte. Results of the blank analysis show that the sampling containers did not compromise the water quality. However, mercuric-chloride-preservation blanks apparently contained measurable ammonium in four of five samples and ammonium plus organic nitrogen in two of five samples. Interlaboratory results indicate substantial differences in the determination of nitrate and ammonium plus organic nitrogen between the principal laboratory and the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Laboratory. In comparison with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Quality-Control Samples, the principal laboratory was sufficiently accurate in its determination of nutrient anafytes. Analysis of replicate samples indicated that sulfuric-acid preservative best maintained the representativeness of the anafytes nitrate and ammonium plus organic nitrogen, whereas, mercuric chloride best maintained the representativeness of orthophosphate. Comparison of nutrient analyte determinations with the Most Probable Value for each preservation method shows that two of five analytes with no chemical preservative compare well, three of five with mercuric-chloride preservative compare well, and three of five with sulfuricacid preservative compare well.

Autonomous learning derived from experimental modeling of physical laws.

PubMed

Grabec, Igor

2013-05-01

This article deals with experimental description of physical laws by probability density function of measured data. The Gaussian mixture model specified by representative data and related probabilities is utilized for this purpose. The information cost function of the model is described in terms of information entropy by the sum of the estimation error and redundancy. A new method is proposed for searching the minimum of the cost function. The number of the resulting prototype data depends on the accuracy of measurement. Their adaptation resembles a self-organized, highly non-linear cooperation between neurons in an artificial NN. A prototype datum corresponds to the memorized content, while the related probability corresponds to the excitability of the neuron. The method does not include any free parameters except objectively determined accuracy of the measurement system and is therefore convenient for autonomous execution. Since representative data are generally less numerous than the measured ones, the method is applicable for a rather general and objective compression of overwhelming experimental data in automatic data-acquisition systems. Such compression is demonstrated on analytically determined random noise and measured traffic flow data. The flow over a day is described by a vector of 24 components. The set of 365 vectors measured over one year is compressed by autonomous learning to just 4 representative vectors and related probabilities. These vectors represent the flow in normal working days and weekends or holidays, while the related probabilities correspond to relative frequencies of these days. This example reveals that autonomous learning yields a new basis for interpretation of representative data and the optimal model structure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective risk factors for new-onset post-traumatic stress disorder in National Guard soldiers deployed to Iraq.

PubMed

Polusny, M A; Erbes, C R; Murdoch, M; Arbisi, P A; Thuras, P; Rath, M B

2011-04-01

National Guard troops are at increased risk for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, little is known about risk and resilience in this population. The Readiness and Resilience in National Guard Soldiers Study is a prospective, longitudinal investigation of 522 Army National Guard troops deployed to Iraq from March 2006 to July 2007. Participants completed measures of PTSD symptoms and potential risk/protective factors 1 month before deployment. Of these, 81% (n=424) completed measures of PTSD, deployment stressor exposure and post-deployment outcomes 2-3 months after returning from Iraq. New onset of probable PTSD 'diagnosis' was measured by the PTSD Checklist - Military (PCL-M). Independent predictors of new-onset probable PTSD were identified using hierarchical logistic regression analyses. At baseline prior to deployment, 3.7% had probable PTSD. Among soldiers without PTSD symptoms at baseline, 13.8% reported post-deployment new-onset probable PTSD. Hierarchical logistic regression adjusted for gender, age, race/ethnicity and military rank showed that reporting more stressors prior to deployment predicted new-onset probable PTSD [odds ratio (OR) 2.20] as did feeling less prepared for deployment (OR 0.58). After accounting for pre-deployment factors, new-onset probable PTSD was predicted by exposure to combat (OR 2.19) and to combat's aftermath (OR 1.62). Reporting more stressful life events after deployment (OR 1.96) was associated with increased odds of new-onset probable PTSD, while post-deployment social support (OR 0.31) was a significant protective factor in the etiology of PTSD. Combat exposure may be unavoidable in military service members, but other vulnerability and protective factors also predict PTSD and could be targets for prevention strategies.

Satisfaction with rehabilitative health care services among German and non-German nationals residing in Germany: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Brzoska, Patrick; Sauzet, Odile; Yilmaz-Aslan, Yüce; Widera, Teresia; Razum, Oliver

2017-08-11

Rehabilitation following medical conditions is largely offered as in-patient service in Germany. Foreign-national residents use rehabilitative services less often than Germans and attain less favourable treatment outcomes. These differences are independent of demographic, socioeconomic and health characteristics. Satisfaction with different aspects of rehabilitative care presumably affects the effectiveness of rehabilitative services. We compared the degree of satisfaction with different domains of the rehabilitative care process between Germans and non-German nationals residing in Germany. We used data from a cross-sectional rehabilitation patient survey annually conducted by the German Statutory Pension Insurance Scheme. The sample comprises 274 513 individuals undergoing medical rehabilitation in 642 hospitals during the years 2007-2011. Participants rated their satisfaction with different domains of rehabilitation on multi-item scales. We dichotomised each scale to low/moderate and high satisfaction. For each domain, a multilevel adjusted logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine differences in the levels of satisfaction between German and non-German nationals. Average marginal effects (AMEs) and 99.5% CI were computed as effect estimates. AMEs represent differences in the probability for the occurrence of the outcome. Turkish nationals had a higher probability for being less satisfied with most aspects of their rehabilitation, with AMEs ranging between 0.05 (99.5% CI 0.00 to 0.09) for 'satisfaction with psychological care' and 0.11 (99.5% CI 0.08 to 0.14) for 'satisfaction with treatments during rehabilitation'. Patients from former Yugoslavia and from Portugal/Spain/Italy/Greece were as satisfied as Germans with most aspects of their rehabilitation. Turkish nationals are less satisfied with their rehabilitative care than other population groups. This may be attributable to the diversity of the population in terms of its expectations towards rehabilitation. Rehabilitative care institutions need to provide services that are sensitive to the needs of all clients. Diversity management can contribute to this process. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Mammal Inventory of the Mojave Network Parks-Death Valley and Joshua Tree National Parks, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Manzanar National Historic Site, and Mojave National Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drost, Charles A.; Hart, Jan

2008-01-01

This report describes the results of a mammal inventory study of National Park Service units in the Mojave Desert Network, including Death Valley National Park, Joshua Tree National Park, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Manzanar National Historic Site, and Mojave National Preserve. Fieldwork for the inventory focused on small mammals, primarily rodents and bats. Fieldwork for terrestrial small mammals used trapping with Sherman and Tomahawk small- and medium-sized mammal traps, along with visual surveys for diurnal species. The majority of sampling for terrestrial small mammals was carried out in 2002 and 2003. Methods used in field surveys for bats included mist-netting at tanks and other water bodies, along with acoustic surveys using Anabat. Most of the bat survey work was conducted in 2003. Because of extremely dry conditions in the first two survey years (and associated low mammal numbers), we extended field sampling into 2004, following a relatively wet winter. In addition to field sampling, we also reviewed, evaluated, and summarized museum and literature records of mammal species for all of the Park units. We documented a total of 59 mammal species as present at Death Valley National Park, with an additional five species that we consider of probable occurrence. At Joshua Tree, we also documented 50 species, and an additional four 'probable' species. At Lake Mead National Recreation Area, 57 mammal species have been positively documented, with 10 additional probable species. Manzanar National Historic Site had not been previously surveyed. We documented 19 mammal species at Manzanar, with an additional 11 probable species. Mojave National Preserve had not had a comprehensive list previously, either. There are now a total of 50 mammal species documented at Mojave, with three additional probable species. Of these totals, 23 occurrences are new at individual park units (positively documented for the first time), with most of these being at Manzanar. Noteworthy additions include western mastiff bat at Joshua Tree, house mouse at a number of wildland sites at Lake Mead, and San Diego pocket mouse at Mojave National Preserve. There are also species that have been lost from the Mojave Network parks. We discuss remaining questions, including the possible occurrence of additional species at each park area (most of these are marginal species whose distributional range may or may not edge into the boundaries of the area). Taxonomic changes are also discussed, along with potential erroneous species records.

Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna

Representation and propagation of uncertainty in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect of security games. Past research has primarily focused on representing the defender’s beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and intervals. Within cyber-settings, continuous probability distributions may still be appropriate for addressing statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume that the attacker’s payoffs differ over time. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information aboutmore » the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as probability boxes with intervals. In this study, we explore the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties.« less

Is the HIV epidemic stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV prevalence and risk behavior results from a nationally representative survey among men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G

2013-01-01

Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6-18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations.

Is the HIV Epidemic Stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV Prevalence and Risk Behavior Results from a Nationally Representative Survey among Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M. Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.

2013-01-01

Background Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. Methods The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. Results We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6–18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Discussion Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations. PMID:24039786

Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel

1983-01-01

Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundredth Congress, First Session, Part 2, July 22, 1987

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1987-01-01

This hearing consisted primarily of the testimonies of two witnesses: Roger Herrera, Manager, Exploration and Lands, Standard Oil Production Co.; and Tim Mahoney, Alaska Coaliton, Washington, DC, representing the Sierra Club. The statements of these two, plus questions from the Committee, were to address six issues primarily in the gas and oil production versus environmental debate: (1) availability of water; (2) availability of gravel; (3) disposal of waste and toxic materials; (4) the concentrated caribou calving areas; (5) the environmental record at Prudhoe Bay; and (6) air-quality issues. Sen. Fran H. Murkowski of Alaska, in noting the conflicting statements ofmore » the two witnesses noted that many of the environmental questions raised were also raised for Prudhoe Bay; further, the problems are probably not as difficult. Mr. Mahoney foresees, but the solution not as easy as Mr. Herrera, representing the oil interests, foresees.« less

Soil actinomycetes in the National Forest Park in northeastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirokikh, I. G.; Shirokikh, A. A.

2017-01-01

The taxonomic and functional structure of actinomycete complexes in the litters and upper horizons of the soils under an artificial coniferous-broad-leaved forest located around the town of Chanchun (Tszilin province, PRC). The complex of actinomycetes included representatives of the Streptomyces, Micromonospora, Streptosporangium, and Streptoverticillium genera and oligosporous forms. In the actinomycete complexes, streptomycetes prevailed in the abundance (61-95%) and frequency of occurrence (100%). In the parcels of Korean pine ( Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolian oak ( Quercus mongolica), streptomycetes of 19 species from 8 series and 4 sections were isolated. The most representative, as in European forest biomes, was the Cinereus Achromogenes series. A distinguishing feature of the streptomycete complex in the biomes studied was the high participation of species from the Imperfectus series. The verification of the functional activity of natural isolates made it possible to reveal strains with high antagonistic and cellulolytic abilities. A high similarity of actinomycete complexes was found in Eurasian forest ecosystems remote from each other, probably due to the similarity of plant polymers decomposable by actinomycetes.

The determinants of HMOs' contracting with hospitals for bypass surgery.

PubMed

Gaskin, Darrell J; Escarce, José J; Schulman, Kevin; Hadley, Jack

2002-08-01

Selective contracting with health care providers is one of the mechanisms HMOs (Health Maintenance Organizations) use to lower health care costs for their enrollees. However, are HMOs compromising quality to lower costs? To address this and other questions we identify factors that influence HMOs' selective contracting for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Using a logistic regression analysis, we estimated the effects of hospitals' quality, costliness, and geographic convenience on HMOs' decision to contract with a hospital for CABG services. We also estimated the impact of HMO characteristics and market characteristics on HMOs' contracting decision. A 1997 survey of a nationally representative sample of 50 HMOs that could have potentially contracted with 447 hospitals. About 44 percent of the HMO-hospital pairs had a contract. We found that the probability of an HMO contracting with a hospital increased as hospital quality increased and decreased as distance increased. Hospital costliness had a negative but borderline significant (0.10 < p < 0.05) effect on the probability of a contract across all types of HMOs. However, this effect was much larger for IPA (Independent Practice Association)-model HMOs than for either group/staff or network HMOs. An increase in HMO competition increased the probability of a contract while an increase in hospital competition decreased the probability of a contract. HMO penetration did not affect the probability of contracting. HMO characteristics also had significant effects on contracting decisions. The results suggest that HMOs value quality, geographic convenience, and costliness, and that the importance of quality and costliness vary with HMO. Greater HMO competition encourages broader hospital networks whereas greater hospital competition leads to more restrictive networks.

The Determinants of HMOs’ Contracting with Hospitals for Bypass Surgery

PubMed Central

Gaskin, Darrell J; Escarce, José J; Schulman, Kevin; Hadley, Jack

2002-01-01

Objective Selective contracting with health care providers is one of the mechanisms HMOs (Health Maintenance Organizations) use to lower health care costs for their enrollees. However, are HMOs compromising quality to lower costs? To address this and other questions we identify factors that influence HMOs’ selective contracting for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Study Design Using a logistic regression analysis, we estimated the effects of hospitals’ quality, costliness, and geographic convenience on HMOs’ decision to contract with a hospital for CABG services. We also estimated the impact of HMO characteristics and market characteristics on HMOs’ contracting decision. Data Sources A 1997 survey of a nationally representative sample of 50 HMOs that could have potentially contracted with 447 hospitals. Principal Findings About 44 percent of the HMO-hospital pairs had a contract. We found that the probability of an HMO contracting with a hospital increased as hospital quality increased and decreased as distance increased. Hospital costliness had a negative but borderline significant (0.10

Ethnic variations in immigrant poverty exit and female employment: the missing link.

PubMed

Kaida, Lisa

2015-04-01

Despite widespread interest in poverty among recent immigrants and female immigrant employment, research on the link between the two is limited. This study evaluates the effect of recently arrived immigrant women's employment on the exit from family poverty and considers the implications for ethnic differences in poverty exit. It uses the bivariate probit model and the Fairlie decomposition technique to analyze data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada (LSIC), a nationally representative survey of immigrants arriving in Canada, 2000-2001. Results show that the employment of recently arrived immigrant women makes a notable contribution to lifting families out of poverty. Moreover, the wide ethnic variations in the probability of exit from poverty between European and non-European groups are partially explained by the lower employment rates among non-European women. The results suggest that the equal earner/female breadwinner model applies to low-income recent immigrant families in general, but the male breadwinner model explains the low probability of poverty exit among select non-European groups whose female employment rates are notably low.

Gender, race, ethnicity, and science education in the middle grades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catsambis, Sophia

This article examines gender differences in science achievements and attitudes during the middle grade, when our nation's scientific pipeline begins to emerge. It uses data from a large, nationally representative sample of eighth-grade students (NELS-88). The findings show that in these grades female students do not lag behind their male classmates in science achievements tests, grades, and course enrollments. Actually, some female students have higher probabilities of enrolling in high-ability classes than males. However, female students have less positive attitudes toward science, participate in fewer relevant extracurricular activities, and aspire less often to science careers than males. Students' science attitudes and career interests vary according to students' gender as well as their racial or ethnic background. These findings emphasize the need to further examine the interrelationships between gender and race or ethnicity in our efforts to understand the processes leading to women's limited participation in science-related careers.Received: 2 August 1993; Revised: 8 August 1994;

Recruiting and retaining youth and young adults: challenges and opportunities in survey research for tobacco control.

PubMed

Cantrell, Jennifer; Hair, Elizabeth C; Smith, Alexandria; Bennett, Morgane; Rath, Jessica Miller; Thomas, Randall K; Fahimi, Mansour; Dennis, J Michael; Vallone, Donna

2018-03-01

Evaluation studies of population-based tobacco control interventions often rely on large-scale survey data from numerous respondents across many geographic areas to provide evidence of their effectiveness. Significant challenges for survey research have emerged with the evolving communications landscape, particularly for surveying hard-to-reach populations such as youth and young adults. This study combines the comprehensive coverage of an address-based sampling (ABS) frame with the timeliness of online data collection to develop a nationally representative longitudinal cohort of young people aged 15-21. We constructed an ABS frame, partially supplemented with auxiliary data, to recruit this hard-to-reach sample. Branded and tested mail-based recruitment materials were designed to bring respondents online for screening, consent and surveying. Once enrolled, respondents completed online surveys every 6 months via computer, tablet or smartphone. Numerous strategies were utilized to enhance retention and representativeness RESULTS: Results detail sample performance, representativeness and retention rates as well as device utilization trends for survey completion among youth and young adult respondents. Panel development efforts resulted in a large, nationally representative sample with high retention rates. This study is among the first to employ this hybrid ABS-to-online methodology to recruit and retain youth and young adults in a probability-based online cohort panel. The approach is particularly valuable for conducting research among younger populations as it capitalizes on their increasing access to and comfort with digital communication. We discuss challenges and opportunities of panel recruitment and retention methods in an effort to provide valuable information for tobacco control researchers seeking to obtain representative, population-based samples of youth and young adults in the U.S. as well as across the globe. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herek, Gregory M.

2009-01-01

Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

Centralized Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment - CRADA Final Report For CRADA Number NFE-11-03562

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R. K.; Peters, Scott

The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modifiedmore » and used as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K

The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and usedmore » as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

In favor of general probability distributions: lateral prefrontal and insular cortices respond to stimulus inherent, but irrelevant differences.

PubMed

Mestres-Missé, Anna; Trampel, Robert; Turner, Robert; Kotz, Sonja A

2016-04-01

A key aspect of optimal behavior is the ability to predict what will come next. To achieve this, we must have a fairly good idea of the probability of occurrence of possible outcomes. This is based both on prior knowledge about a particular or similar situation and on immediately relevant new information. One question that arises is: when considering converging prior probability and external evidence, is the most probable outcome selected or does the brain represent degrees of uncertainty, even highly improbable ones? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, the current study explored these possibilities by contrasting words that differ in their probability of occurrence, namely, unbalanced ambiguous words and unambiguous words. Unbalanced ambiguous words have a strong frequency-based bias towards one meaning, while unambiguous words have only one meaning. The current results reveal larger activation in lateral prefrontal and insular cortices in response to dominant ambiguous compared to unambiguous words even when prior and contextual information biases one interpretation only. These results suggest a probability distribution, whereby all outcomes and their associated probabilities of occurrence--even if very low--are represented and maintained.

Geologic map of Chickasaw National Recreation Area, Murray County, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blome, Charles D.; Lidke, David J.; Wahl, Ronald R.; Golab, James A.

2013-01-01

This 1:24,000-scale geologic map is a compilation of previous geologic maps and new geologic mapping of areas in and around Chickasaw National Recreation Area. The geologic map includes revisions of numerous unit contacts and faults and a number of previously “undifferentiated” rock units were subdivided in some areas. Numerous circular-shaped hills in and around Chickasaw National Recreation Area are probably the result of karst-related collapse and may represent the erosional remnants of large, exhumed sinkholes. Geospatial registration of existing, smaller scale (1:72,000- and 1:100,000-scale) geologic maps of the area and construction of an accurate Geographic Information System (GIS) database preceded 2 years of fieldwork wherein previously mapped geology (unit contacts and faults) was verified and new geologic mapping was carried out. The geologic map of Chickasaw National Recreation Area and this pamphlet include information pertaining to how the geologic units and structural features in the map area relate to the formation of the northern Arbuckle Mountains and its Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer. The development of an accurate geospatial GIS database and the use of a handheld computer in the field greatly increased both the accuracy and efficiency in producing the 1:24,000-scale geologic map.

Variability in Pathologists’ Interpretations of Individual Breast Biopsy Slides: A Population Perspective

PubMed Central

Elmore, Joann G.; Nelson, Heidi D.; Pepe, Margaret S.; Longton, Gary M.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Geller, Berta; Onega, Tracy; Carney, Patricia A.; Jackson, Sara L.; Allison, Kimberly H.; Weaver, Donald L.

2016-01-01

Background The effect of physician diagnostic variability on accuracy at a population level depends on the prevalence of diagnoses. Objective To estimate how diagnostic variability affects accuracy from the perspective of a U.S. woman aged 50 to 59 years having a breast biopsy. Design Applied probability using Bayes theorem. Setting B-Path (Breast Pathology) Study comparing pathologists’ interpretations of a single biopsy slide versus a reference consensus interpretation from 3 experts. Participants 115 practicing pathologists (6900 total interpretations from 240 distinct cases). Measurements A single representative slide from each of the 240 cases was used to estimate the proportion of biopsies with a diagnosis that would be verified if the same slide were interpreted by a reference group of 3 expert pathologists. Probabilities of confirmation (predictive values) were estimated using B-Path Study results and prevalence of biopsy diagnoses for women aged 50 to 59 years in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Results Overall, if 1 representative slide were used per case, 92.3% (95% CI, 91.4% to 93.1%) of breast biopsy diagnoses would be verified by reference consensus diagnoses, with 4.6% (CI, 3.9% to 5.3%) overinterpreted and 3.2% (CI, 2.7% to 3.6%) underinterpreted. Verification of invasive breast cancer and benign without atypia diagnoses is highly probable; estimated predictive values were 97.7% (CI, 96.5% to 98.7%) and 97.1% (CI, 96.7% to 97.4%), respectively. Verification is less probable for atypia (53.6% overinterpreted and 8.6% underinterpreted) and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (18.5% overinterpreted and 11.8% underinterpreted). Limitations Estimates are based on a testing situation with 1 slide used per case and without access to second opinions. Population-adjusted estimates may differ for women from other age groups, unscreened women, or women in different practice settings. Conclusion This analysis, based on interpretation of a single breast biopsy slide per case, predicts a low likelihood that a diagnosis of atypia or DCIS would be verified by a reference consensus diagnosis. This diagnostic gray zone should be considered in clinical management decisions in patients with these diagnoses. Primary Funding Source National Cancer Institute. PMID:26999810

78 FR 20137 - Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade Agreement...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-03

... INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION [Investigation No. TA-103-027] Probable Economic Effect of Certain... investigation No. TA-103-027, Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade... reached agreement in principle with representatives of the governments of Canada and Mexico on proposed...

On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability versus Inductive Confirmation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-01-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such…

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Seeing the Forest when Entry Is Unlikely: Probability and the Mental Representation of Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wakslak, Cheryl J.; Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Alony, Rotem

2006-01-01

Conceptualizing probability as psychological distance, the authors draw on construal level theory (Y. Trope & N. Liberman, 2003) to propose that decreasing an event's probability leads individuals to represent the event by its central, abstract, general features (high-level construal) rather than by its peripheral, concrete, specific features…

Nuclear-effects model embedded stochastically in simulation (NEMESIS) summary report. Technical paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngren, M.A.

1989-11-01

An analytic probability model of tactical nuclear warfare in the theater is presented in this paper. The model addresses major problems associated with representing nuclear warfare in the theater. Current theater representations of a potential nuclear battlefield are developed in context of low-resolution, theater-level models or scenarios. These models or scenarios provide insufficient resolution in time and space for modeling a nuclear exchange. The model presented in this paper handles the spatial uncertainty in potentially targeted unit locations by proposing two-dimensional multivariate probability models for the actual and perceived locations of units subordinate to the major (division-level) units represented inmore » theater scenarios. The temporal uncertainty in the activities of interest represented in our theater-level Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM) is handled through probability models of the acquisition and movement of potential nuclear target units.« less

Investigation of Dielectric Breakdown Characteristics for Double-break Vacuum Interrupter and Dielectric Breakdown Probability Distribution in Vacuum Interrupter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shioiri, Tetsu; Asari, Naoki; Sato, Junichi; Sasage, Kosuke; Yokokura, Kunio; Homma, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Katsumi

To investigate the reliability of equipment of vacuum insulation, a study was carried out to clarify breakdown probability distributions in vacuum gap. Further, a double-break vacuum circuit breaker was investigated for breakdown probability distribution. The test results show that the breakdown probability distribution of the vacuum gap can be represented by a Weibull distribution using a location parameter, which shows the voltage that permits a zero breakdown probability. The location parameter obtained from Weibull plot depends on electrode area. The shape parameter obtained from Weibull plot of vacuum gap was 10∼14, and is constant irrespective non-uniform field factor. The breakdown probability distribution after no-load switching can be represented by Weibull distribution using a location parameter. The shape parameter after no-load switching was 6∼8.5, and is constant, irrespective of gap length. This indicates that the scatter of breakdown voltage was increased by no-load switching. If the vacuum circuit breaker uses a double break, breakdown probability at low voltage becomes lower than single-break probability. Although potential distribution is a concern in the double-break vacuum cuicuit breaker, its insulation reliability is better than that of the single-break vacuum interrupter even if the bias of the vacuum interrupter's sharing voltage is taken into account.

Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2003-01-01

Some progress has been made in a continuing effort to develop mathematical models of the behaviors of multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology (e.g., systems ranging from single or a few biomolecules to many interacting higher organisms). Living systems can be characterized by nonlinear evolution of probability distributions over different possible choices of the next steps in their motions. One of the main challenges in mathematical modeling of living systems is to distinguish between random walks of purely physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) and those of biological origin. Following a line of reasoning from prior research, it has been assumed, in the present development, that a biological random walk can be represented by a nonlinear mathematical model that represents coupled mental and motor dynamics incorporating the psychological concept of reflection or self-image. The nonlinear dynamics impart the lifelike ability to behave in ways and to exhibit patterns that depart from thermodynamic equilibrium. Reflection or self-image has traditionally been recognized as a basic element of intelligence. The nonlinear mathematical models of the present development are denoted self-supervised dynamical systems. They include (1) equations of classical dynamics, including random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces, coupled with (2) the corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces, denoted supervising forces, composed of probability densities and functionals thereof. The equations of classical mechanics represent motor dynamics that is, dynamics in the traditional sense, signifying Newton s equations of motion. The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics or self-image. Then the interaction between the physical and metal aspects of a monad is implemented by feedback from mental to motor dynamics, as represented by the aforementioned fictitious forces. This feedback is what makes the evolution of probability densities nonlinear. The deviation from linear evolution can be characterized, in a sense, as an expression of free will. It has been demonstrated that probability densities can approach prescribed attractors while exhibiting such patterns as shock waves, solitons, and chaos in probability space. The concept of self-supervised dynamical systems has been considered for application to diverse phenomena, including information-based neural networks, cooperation, competition, deception, games, and control of chaos. In addition, a formal similarity between the mathematical structures of self-supervised dynamical systems and of quantum-mechanical systems has been investigated.

Evaluating Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Assessments Using Anomaly Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Michael

2017-01-01

The accuracy of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk assessments can be difficult to evaluate. A team from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has completed a study that compared MMOD-related failures on operational satellites to predictions of how many of those failures should occur using NASA's TM"s MMOD risk assessment methodology and tools. The study team used the Poisson probability to quantify the degree of inconsistency between the predicted and reported numbers of failures. Many elements go into a risk assessment, and each of those elements represent a possible source of uncertainty or bias that will influence the end result. There are also challenges in obtaining accurate and useful data on MMOD-related failures.

Molecular characterization of hepatitis A outbreak in the province of Rome, Lazio region, Italy, January-July 2013.

PubMed

Capobianchi, Maria R; Garbuglia, Anna Rosa; Agrati, Chiara; Rianda, Alessia; Noto, Pasquale; Corpolongo, Angela; Cataldo, Maria Adriana; Rosati, Silvia; Zaccaro, Paola; Loffredo, Mariarosaria; Pompa, Maria Grazia; Girardi, Enrico; Scognamiglio, Paola; Ippolito, Giuseppe

2014-04-01

Reduced circulation of hepatitis A virus lead to an increase of susceptible individuals, and outbreaks occurred recently. In Northern Italy an outbreak is ongoing, attributed to a monophyletic genotype IA strain, with mixed frozen berries as probable source. From 01/01/2013 to 07/15/2013, 30 cases were diagnosed at National Institute for Infectious Diseases, Rome, Italy, representing about twice the number of cases in whole 2012. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that most, although not all, infections were attributable to the same monophyletic genotype IA strain identified in the contemporary Northern Italy outbreak. This strain is also very similar to previous isolates from Venezuela. Copyright © 2014 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The effects of maternal employment on the health of school-age children.

PubMed

Morrill, Melinda Sandler

2011-03-01

The effects of maternal employment on children's health are theoretically ambiguous and challenging to identify. There are trade-offs between income and time, and a mother's decision to work reflects, in part, her children's health and her underlying preferences. I utilize exogenous variation in each child's youngest sibling's eligibility for kindergarten as an instrument. Using the restricted-access National Health Interview Survey (1985-2004), I identify the effects on overnight hospitalizations, asthma episodes, and injuries/poisonings for children ages 7-17. Maternal employment increases the probability of each adverse health event by nearly 200 percent. These effects are robust and do not reflect a non-representative local effect. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic #D data fusion for multiresolution surface generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manduchi, R.; Johnson, A. E.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive resolution integration of 3D data collected from multiple distributed sensors. The input to the algorithm is a set of 3D surface points and associated sensor models. Using a probabilistic rule, a surface probability function is generated that represents the probability that a particular volume of space contains the surface. The surface probability function is represented using an octree data structure; regions of space with samples of large conariance are stored at a coarser level than regions of space containing samples with smaller covariance. The algorithm outputs an adaptive resolution surface generated by connecting points that lie on the ridge of surface probability with triangles scaled to match the local discretization of space given by the algorithm, we present results from 3D data generated by scanning lidar and structure from motion.

Tail mean and related robust solution concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogryczak, Włodzimierz

2014-01-01

Robust optimisation might be viewed as a multicriteria optimisation problem where objectives correspond to the scenarios although their probabilities are unknown or imprecise. The simplest robust solution concept represents a conservative approach focused on the worst-case scenario results optimisation. A softer concept allows one to optimise the tail mean thus combining performances under multiple worst scenarios. We show that while considering robust models allowing the probabilities to vary only within given intervals, the tail mean represents the robust solution for only upper bounded probabilities. For any arbitrary intervals of probabilities the corresponding robust solution may be expressed by the optimisation of appropriately combined mean and tail mean criteria thus remaining easily implementable with auxiliary linear inequalities. Moreover, we use the tail mean concept to develope linear programming implementable robust solution concepts related to risk averse optimisation criteria.

High probability neurotransmitter release sites represent an energy efficient design

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhongmin; Chouhan, Amit K.; Borycz, Jolanta A.; Lu, Zhiyuan; Rossano, Adam J; Brain, Keith L.; Zhou, You; Meinertzhagen, Ian A.; Macleod, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Nerve terminals contain multiple sites specialized for the release of neurotransmitters. Release usually occurs with low probability, a design thought to confer many advantages. High probability release sites are not uncommon but their advantages are not well understood. Here we test the hypothesis that high probability release sites represent an energy efficient design. We examined release site probabilities and energy efficiency at the terminals of two glutamatergic motor neurons synapsing on the same muscle fiber in Drosophila larvae. Through electrophysiological and ultrastructural measurements we calculated release site probabilities to differ considerably between terminals (0.33 vs. 0.11). We estimated the energy required to release and recycle glutamate from the same measurements. The energy required to remove calcium and sodium ions subsequent to nerve excitation was estimated through microfluorimetric and morphological measurements. We calculated energy efficiency as the number of glutamate molecules released per ATP molecule hydrolyzed, and high probability release site terminals were found to be more efficient (0.13 vs. 0.06). Our analytical model indicates that energy efficiency is optimal (~0.15) at high release site probabilities (~0.76). As limitations in energy supply constrain neural function, high probability release sites might ameliorate such constraints by demanding less energy. Energy efficiency can be viewed as one aspect of nerve terminal function, in balance with others, because high efficiency terminals depress significantly during episodic bursts of activity. PMID:27593375

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selby, Thomas H.; Hart, Kristen M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Smith, Brian J.; Pollock, Clayton J; Hillis-Star, Zandy M; Lundgren, Ian; Oli, Madan K.

2016-01-01

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0–73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4–39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.

Erectile Dysfunction in Patients with Sleep Apnea--A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Min; Tsai, Ming-Ju; Wei, Po-Ju; Su, Yu-Chung; Yang, Chih-Jen; Wu, Meng-Ni; Hsu, Chung-Yao; Hwang, Shang-Jyh; Chong, Inn-Wen; Huang, Ming-Shyan

2015-01-01

Increased incidence of erectile dysfunction (ED) has been reported among patients with sleep apnea (SA). However, this association has not been confirmed in a large-scale study. We therefore performed a population-based cohort study using Taiwan National Health Insurance (NHI) database to investigate the association of SA and ED. From the database of one million representative subjects randomly sampled from individuals enrolled in the NHI system in 2010, we identified adult patients having SA and excluded those having a diagnosis of ED prior to SA. From these suspected SA patients, those having SA diagnosis after polysomnography were defined as probable SA patients. The dates of their first SA diagnosis were defined as their index dates. Each SA patient was matched to 30 randomly-selected, age-matched control subjects without any SA diagnosis. The control subjects were assigned index dates as their corresponding SA patients, and were ensured having no ED diagnosis prior to their index dates. Totally, 4,835 male patients with suspected SA (including 1,946 probable SA patients) were matched to 145,050 control subjects (including 58,380 subjects matched to probable SA patients). The incidence rate of ED was significantly higher in probable SA patients as compared with the corresponding control subjects (5.7 vs. 2.3 per 1000 patient-year; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0 [95% CI: 1.8-2.2], p<0.0001). The cumulative incidence was also significantly higher in the probable SA patients (p<0.0001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, probable SA remained a significant risk factor for the development of ED after adjusting for age, residency, income level and comorbidities (hazard ratio = 2.0 [95%CI: 1.5-2.7], p<0.0001). In line with previous studies, this population-based large-scale study confirmed an increased ED incidence in SA patients in Chinese population. Physicians need to pay attention to the possible underlying SA while treating ED patients.

Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaufort, Aurélien; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Pella, Hervé; Datry, Thibault; Sauquet, Eric

2018-05-01

Headwater streams represent a substantial proportion of river systems and many of them have intermittent flows due to their upstream position in the network. These intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams have recently seen a marked increase in interest, especially to assess the impact of drying on aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to quantify how discrete (in space and time) field observations of flow intermittence help to extrapolate over time the daily probability of drying (defined at the regional scale). Two empirical models based on linear or logistic regressions have been developed to predict the daily probability of intermittence at the regional scale across France. Explanatory variables were derived from available daily discharge and groundwater-level data of a dense gauging/piezometer network, and models were calibrated using discrete series of field observations of flow intermittence. The robustness of the models was tested using an independent, dense regional dataset of intermittence observations and observations of the year 2017 excluded from the calibration. The resulting models were used to extrapolate the daily regional probability of drying in France: (i) over the period 2011-2017 to identify the regions most affected by flow intermittence; (ii) over the period 1989-2017, using a reduced input dataset, to analyse temporal variability of flow intermittence at the national level. The two empirical regression models performed equally well between 2011 and 2017. The accuracy of predictions depended on the number of continuous gauging/piezometer stations and intermittence observations available to calibrate the regressions. Regions with the highest performance were located in sedimentary plains, where the monitoring network was dense and where the regional probability of drying was the highest. Conversely, the worst performances were obtained in mountainous regions. Finally, temporal projections (1989-2016) suggested the highest probabilities of intermittence (> 35 %) in 1989-1991, 2003 and 2005. A high density of intermittence observations improved the information provided by gauging stations and piezometers to extrapolate the temporal variability of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams.

German health interview and examination survey for adults (DEGS) - design, objectives and implementation of the first data collection wave

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS) is part of the recently established national health monitoring conducted by the Robert Koch Institute. DEGS combines a nationally representative periodic health survey and a longitudinal study based on follow-up of survey participants. Funding is provided by the German Ministry of Health and supplemented for specific research topics from other sources. Methods/design The first DEGS wave of data collection (DEGS1) extended from November 2008 to December 2011. Overall, 8152 men and women participated. Of these, 3959 persons already participated in the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 (GNHIES98) at which time they were 18–79 years of age. Another 4193 persons 18–79 years of age were recruited for DEGS1 in 2008–2011 based on two-stage stratified random sampling from local population registries. Health data and context variables were collected using standardized computer assisted personal interviews, self-administered questionnaires, and standardized measurements and tests. In order to keep survey results representative for the population aged 18–79 years, results will be weighted by survey-specific weighting factors considering sampling and drop-out probabilities as well as deviations between the design-weighted net sample and German population statistics 2010. Discussion DEGS aims to establish a nationally representative data base on health of adults in Germany. This health data platform will be used for continuous health reporting and health care research. The results will help to support health policy planning and evaluation. Repeated cross-sectional surveys will permit analyses of time trends in morbidity, functional capacity levels, disability, and health risks and resources. Follow-up of study participants will provide the opportunity to study trajectories of health and disability. A special focus lies on chronic diseases including asthma, allergies, cardiovascular conditions, diabetes mellitus, and musculoskeletal diseases. Other core topics include vaccine-preventable diseases and immunization status, nutritional deficiencies, health in older age, and the association between health-related behavior and mental health. PMID:22938722

Sleep and Sickness Absence: A Nationally Representative Register-Based Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Lallukka, Tea; Kaikkonen, Risto; Härkänen, Tommi; Kronholm, Erkki; Partonen, Timo; Rahkonen, Ossi; Koskinen, Seppo

2014-01-01

Study Objectives: We aimed to examine various sleep measures as determinants of sickness absence while considering confounders. Design: Nationally representative Health 2000 Survey linked with sickness absence data from the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Setting: Finland. Participants: Working-aged women (n = 1,875) and men (n = 1,885). Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Insomnia-related symptoms, early morning awakenings, being more tired during daytime than other people of same age, use of sleeping pills, excessive daytime sleepiness, probable sleep apnea (4 items about snoring/apnea), and reporting that sleep duration varies between different seasons were examined as determinants of sickness absence over a 7.2 year follow-up. Poisson and gamma regression models were fitted. After adjusting age, all examined sleep disturbances except excessive daytime sleepiness were associated with sickness absence among men (RRs 1.3-2.5). Among women, after adjusting for age, insomnia-related symptoms, early morning awakenings, being more tired than others, and use of sleeping pills were associated with sickness absence (RRs 1.4-1.8). After further adjustments for education, working conditions, health behaviors, and objectively measured mental and somatic health, the associations somewhat attenuated but mainly remained. The optimal sleep duration with the lowest risk of sickness absence was 7.6 hours for women and 7.8 hours for men. Although persistence of other health problems could affect the estimates, direct costs due to sickness absence could decrease by up to 28% if sleep disturbances could be fully addressed. Conclusions: This study highlights the need for prevention of sleep disturbances and promotion of optimal sleep length to prevent sickness absence. Citation: Lallukka T, Kaikkonen R, Härkänen T, Kronholm E, Partonen T, Rahkonen O, Koskinen S. Sleep and sickness absence: a nationally representative register-based follow-up study. SLEEP 2014;37(9):1413-1425. PMID:25142569

Problematic Social Media Use and Depressive Symptoms among U.S. Young Adults: A Nationally-Representative Study

PubMed Central

Shensa, Ariel; Escobar-Viera, César G.; Sidani, Jaime E.; Bowman, Nicholas D.; Marshal, Michael P.; Primack, Brian A.

2017-01-01

Rationale Depression is the leading cause of disability worldwide. The suggested association between social media use (SMU) and depression may be explained by the emerging maladaptive use pattern known as problematic social media use (PSMU), characterized by addictive components. Objective We aimed to assess the association between PSMU and depressive symptoms—controlling for overall time and frequency of SMU—among a large sample of U.S. young adults. Methods In October 2014, participants aged 19–32 (N = 1749) were randomly selected from a nationally-representative U.S. probability-based panel and subsequently invited to participate in an online survey. We assessed depressive symptoms using the validated Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) brief depression scale. We measured PSMU using an adapted version of the Bergen Facebook Addiction Scale to encompass broader SMU. Using logistic regression models, we tested the association between PSMU and depressive symptoms, controlling for time and frequency of SMU as well as a comprehensive set of socio-demographic covariates. Results In the multivariable model, PSMU was significantly associated with a 9% increase in odds of depressive symptoms (AOR [adjusted odds ratio] = 1.09; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.05, 1.13; p < .001.) Increased frequency of SMU was also significantly associated with increased depressive symptoms, whereas SMU time was not (AOR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.01; p = .001 and AOR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.999–1.001; p = .43, respectively). Conclusion PSMU was strongly and independently associated with increased depressive symptoms in this nationally-representative sample of young adults. PSMU largely explained the association between SMU and depressive symptom, suggesting that it may be how we use social media, not how much, that poses a risk. Intervention efforts aimed at reducing depressive symptoms, such as screenings for maladaptive SMU, may be most successful if they address addictive components and frequency—rather than time—of SMU. PMID:28446367

Inadequate Iodine Intake in Population Groups Defined by Age, Life Stage and Vegetarian Dietary Practice in a Norwegian Convenience Sample.

PubMed

Brantsæter, Anne Lise; Knutsen, Helle Katrine; Johansen, Nina Cathrine; Nyheim, Kristine Aastad; Erlund, Iris; Meltzer, Helle Margrete; Henjum, Sigrun

2018-02-17

Inadequate iodine intake has been identified in populations considered iodine replete for decades. The objective of the current study is to evaluate urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and the probability of adequate iodine intake in subgroups of the Norwegian population defined by age, life stage and vegetarian dietary practice. In a cross-sectional survey, we assessed the probability of adequate iodine intake by two 24-h food diaries and UIC from two fasting morning spot urine samples in 276 participants. The participants included children ( n = 47), adolescents ( n = 46), adults ( n = 71), the elderly ( n = 23), pregnant women ( n = 45), ovo-lacto vegetarians ( n = 25), and vegans ( n = 19). In all participants combined, the median (95% CI) UIC was 101 (90, 110) µg/L, median (25th, 75th percentile) calculated iodine intake was 112 (77, 175) µg/day and median (25th, 75th percentile) estimated usual iodine intake was 101 (75, 150) µg/day. According to WHOs criteria for evaluation of median UIC, iodine intake was inadequate in the elderly, pregnant women, vegans and non-pregnant women of childbearing age. Children had the highest (82%) and vegans the lowest (14%) probability of adequate iodine intake according to reported food and supplement intakes. This study confirms the need for monitoring iodine intake and status in nationally representative study samples in Norway.

[Cancer incidence in the military: an update].

PubMed

Peragallo, Mario Stefano; Urbano, Francesco; Sarnicola, Giuseppe; Lista, Florigio; Vecchione, Alfredo

2011-01-01

An abnormally elevated rate of Hodgkin's lymphoma was reported in 2001 among Italian soldiers in Bosnia and Kosovo since 1995: a surveillance system was therefore set up for the military community. Preliminary results for a longer period (1996-2007) have shown incidence rates lower than expected for all malignancies. No significant difference was registered between observed and expected cases of Hodkin's lymphoma: the excess of reported cases for this malignancy in 2001-2002 was probably due to a peak occurred in 2000 among the whole military; it is therefore unrelated to deployment in the Balkans, and probably represents a chance event. Moreover, a significant excess of thyroid cancer was reported among the whole military.The estimated number of incident cases, including those missed by the surveillance system, was not significantly higher than expected for all cancers; conversely, the estimated incidence rate of thyroid cancer was significantly increased; this excess, however, is probably due to a selection bias.These data concerning cancer surveillance in the Italian military are consistent with lacking evidence of an increased cancer incidence among troops of other countries deployed in the areas of Iraq, Bosnia, and Kosovo, where armour penetrating depleted uranium shells have been used. However, a comprehensive assessment of cancer morbidity in the military requires a revision of the privacy regulations, in order to link individual records of military personnel and data bases of the National Health Service.

Inadequate Iodine Intake in Population Groups Defined by Age, Life Stage and Vegetarian Dietary Practice in a Norwegian Convenience Sample

PubMed Central

Knutsen, Helle Katrine; Johansen, Nina Cathrine; Nyheim, Kristine Aastad; Erlund, Iris; Meltzer, Helle Margrete

2018-01-01

Inadequate iodine intake has been identified in populations considered iodine replete for decades. The objective of the current study is to evaluate urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and the probability of adequate iodine intake in subgroups of the Norwegian population defined by age, life stage and vegetarian dietary practice. In a cross-sectional survey, we assessed the probability of adequate iodine intake by two 24-h food diaries and UIC from two fasting morning spot urine samples in 276 participants. The participants included children (n = 47), adolescents (n = 46), adults (n = 71), the elderly (n = 23), pregnant women (n = 45), ovo-lacto vegetarians (n = 25), and vegans (n = 19). In all participants combined, the median (95% CI) UIC was 101 (90, 110) µg/L, median (25th, 75th percentile) calculated iodine intake was 112 (77, 175) µg/day and median (25th, 75th percentile) estimated usual iodine intake was 101 (75, 150) µg/day. According to WHOs criteria for evaluation of median UIC, iodine intake was inadequate in the elderly, pregnant women, vegans and non-pregnant women of childbearing age. Children had the highest (82%) and vegans the lowest (14%) probability of adequate iodine intake according to reported food and supplement intakes. This study confirms the need for monitoring iodine intake and status in nationally representative study samples in Norway. PMID:29462974

Uniform research case definition criteria differentiate tuberculous and bacterial meningitis in children.

PubMed

Solomons, Regan S; Wessels, Marie; Visser, Douwe H; Donald, Peter R; Marais, Ben J; Schoeman, Johan F; van Furth, Anne M

2014-12-01

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) research is hampered by low numbers of microbiologically confirmed TBM cases and the fact that they may represent a select part of the disease spectrum. A uniform TBM research case definition was developed to address these limitations, but its ability to differentiate TBM from bacterial meningitis has not been evaluated. We assessed all children treated for TBM from 1985 to 2005 at Tygerberg Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa. For comparative purposes, a group of children with culture-confirmed bacterial meningitis, diagnosed between 2003 and 2009, was identified from the National Health Laboratory Service database. The performance of the proposed case definition was evaluated in culture-confirmed TBM and bacterial meningitis cases. Of 554 children treated for TBM, 66 (11.9%) were classified as "definite TBM," 408 (73.6%) as "probable TBM," and 72 (13.0%) as "possible TBM." "Probable TBM" criteria identified culture-confirmed TBM with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 100%; sensitivity was increased but specificity reduced when using "possible TBM" criteria (sensitivity 100%, specificity 56%). "Probable TBM" criteria accurately differentiated TBM from bacterial meningitis and could be considered for use in clinical trials; reduced sensitivity in children with early TBM (stage 1 disease) remains a concern. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sets, Probability and Statistics: The Mathematics of Life Insurance. [Computer Program.] Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, James M.; And Others

The materials described here represent the conversion of a highly popular student workbook "Sets, Probability and Statistics: The Mathematics of Life Insurance" into a computer program. The program is designed to familiarize students with the concepts of sets, probability, and statistics, and to provide practice using real life examples. It also…

The National Children's Study: Recruitment Outcomes Using the Provider-Based Recruitment Approach.

PubMed

Hale, Daniel E; Wyatt, Sharon B; Buka, Stephen; Cherry, Debra; Cislo, Kendall K; Dudley, Donald J; McElfish, Pearl Anna; Norman, Gwendolyn S; Reynolds, Simone A; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria; Wadlinger, Sandra; Walker, Cheryl K; Robbins, James M

2016-06-01

In 2009, the National Children's Study (NCS) Vanguard Study tested the feasibility of household-based recruitment and participant enrollment using a birth-rate probability sample. In 2010, the NCS Program Office launched 3 additional recruitment approaches. We tested whether provider-based recruitment could improve recruitment outcomes compared with household-based recruitment. The NCS aimed to recruit 18- to 49-year-old women who were pregnant or at risk for becoming pregnant who lived in designated geographic segments within primary sampling units, generally counties. Using provider-based recruitment, 10 study centers engaged providers to enroll eligible participants at their practice. Recruitment models used different levels of provider engagement (full, intermediate, information-only). The percentage of eligible women per county ranged from 1.5% to 57.3%. Across the centers, 3371 potential participants were approached for screening, 3459 (92%) were screened and 1479 were eligible (43%). Of those 1181 (80.0%) gave consent and 1008 (94%) were retained until delivery. Recruited participants were generally representative of the county population. Provider-based recruitment was successful in recruiting NCS participants. Challenges included time-intensity of engaging the clinical practices, differential willingness of providers to participate, and necessary reliance on providers for participant identification. The vast majority of practices cooperated to some degree. Recruitment from obstetric practices is an effective means of obtaining a representative sample. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The National Children’s Study: Recruitment Outcomes Using the Provider-Based Recruitment Approach

PubMed Central

Wyatt, Sharon B.; Buka, Stephen; Cherry, Debra; Cislo, Kendall K.; Dudley, Donald J.; McElfish, Pearl Anna; Norman, Gwendolyn S.; Reynolds, Simone A.; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria; Wadlinger, Sandra; Walker, Cheryl K.; Robbins, James M.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: In 2009, the National Children’s Study (NCS) Vanguard Study tested the feasibility of household-based recruitment and participant enrollment using a birth-rate probability sample. In 2010, the NCS Program Office launched 3 additional recruitment approaches. We tested whether provider-based recruitment could improve recruitment outcomes compared with household-based recruitment. METHODS: The NCS aimed to recruit 18- to 49-year-old women who were pregnant or at risk for becoming pregnant who lived in designated geographic segments within primary sampling units, generally counties. Using provider-based recruitment, 10 study centers engaged providers to enroll eligible participants at their practice. Recruitment models used different levels of provider engagement (full, intermediate, information-only). RESULTS: The percentage of eligible women per county ranged from 1.5% to 57.3%. Across the centers, 3371 potential participants were approached for screening, 3459 (92%) were screened and 1479 were eligible (43%). Of those 1181 (80.0%) gave consent and 1008 (94%) were retained until delivery. Recruited participants were generally representative of the county population. CONCLUSIONS: Provider-based recruitment was successful in recruiting NCS participants. Challenges included time-intensity of engaging the clinical practices, differential willingness of providers to participate, and necessary reliance on providers for participant identification. The vast majority of practices cooperated to some degree. Recruitment from obstetric practices is an effective means of obtaining a representative sample. PMID:27251870

The beta distribution: A statistical model for world cloud cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falls, L. W.

1973-01-01

Much work has been performed in developing empirical global cloud cover models. This investigation was made to determine an underlying theoretical statistical distribution to represent worldwide cloud cover. The beta distribution with probability density function is given to represent the variability of this random variable. It is shown that the beta distribution possesses the versatile statistical characteristics necessary to assume the wide variety of shapes exhibited by cloud cover. A total of 160 representative empirical cloud cover distributions were investigated and the conclusion was reached that this study provides sufficient statical evidence to accept the beta probability distribution as the underlying model for world cloud cover.

32 CFR 154.40 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... effort to assess the probability of future behavior which could have an effect adverse to the national... prior experience with similar cases, reasonably suggest a degree of probability of prejudicial behavior...

32 CFR 154.40 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... effort to assess the probability of future behavior which could have an effect adverse to the national... prior experience with similar cases, reasonably suggest a degree of probability of prejudicial behavior...

Is love of nature in the US becoming love of electronic media? 16-year downtrend in national park visits explained by watching movies, playing video games, internet use, and oil prices.

PubMed

Pergams, Oliver R W; Zaradic, Patricia A

2006-09-01

After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to US national parks have declined since 1988. This decline, coincident with the rise in electronic entertainment media, may represent a shift in recreation choices with broader implications for the value placed on biodiversity conservation and environmentally responsible behavior. We compared the decline in per capita visits with a set of indicators representing alternate recreation choices and constraints. The Spearman correlation analyses found this decline in NPV to be significantly negatively correlated with several electronic entertainment indicators: hours of television, (rs=-0.743, P<0.001), video games (rs=-0.773, P<0.001), home movies (rs=-0.788, P<0.001), theatre attendance (rs=-0.587, P<0.025) and internet use (rs=-0.783, P<0.001). There were also significant negative correlations with oil prices (rs=-0.547, P<0.025), foreign travel (rs=-0.452, P<0.05), and Appalachian Trail hikers (rs=-0.785, P<0.001). Income was significantly positively correlated with foreign travel (rs=0.621, P<0.005) but negatively correlated with national park visits (rs=-0.697, P<0.005). There was no significant correlation of mean number of vacation days, indicating available vacation time is probably not a factor. Federal funding actually increased during this period, and so was rejected as a probable factor. Park capacity was rejected as limiting since both total overnight stays and visits at the seven most popular parks rose well into the mid-1990s. Aging of baby boomers was also rejected as they are only now reaching retirement age, and thus during the period of visitation decline were still of prime family vacation age. Multiple linear regression of four of the entertainment media variables as well as oil prices explains 97.5% of this recent decline (r=0.975, multiple r2=0.950, adjusted multiple r2=0.925, SE=0.015, F=37.800, P<0.0001). We may be seeing evidence of a fundamental shift away from people's appreciation of nature (biophilia, Wilson 1984) to 'videophilia,' which we here define as "the new human tendency to focus on sedentary activities involving electronic media." Such a shift would not bode well for the future of biodiversity conservation.

Inherent limitations of probabilistic models for protein-DNA binding specificity

PubMed Central

Ruan, Shuxiang

2017-01-01

The specificities of transcription factors are most commonly represented with probabilistic models. These models provide a probability for each base occurring at each position within the binding site and the positions are assumed to contribute independently. The model is simple and intuitive and is the basis for many motif discovery algorithms. However, the model also has inherent limitations that prevent it from accurately representing true binding probabilities, especially for the highest affinity sites under conditions of high protein concentration. The limitations are not due to the assumption of independence between positions but rather are caused by the non-linear relationship between binding affinity and binding probability and the fact that independent normalization at each position skews the site probabilities. Generally probabilistic models are reasonably good approximations, but new high-throughput methods allow for biophysical models with increased accuracy that should be used whenever possible. PMID:28686588

Repeat migration and disappointment.

PubMed

Grant, E K; Vanderkamp, J

1986-01-01

This article investigates the determinants of repeat migration among the 44 regions of Canada, using information from a large micro-database which spans the period 1968 to 1971. The explanation of repeat migration probabilities is a difficult task, and this attempt is only partly successful. May of the explanatory variables are not significant, and the overall explanatory power of the equations is not high. In the area of personal characteristics, the variables related to age, sex, and marital status are generally significant and with expected signs. The distance variable has a strongly positive effect on onward move probabilities. Variables related to prior migration experience have an important impact that differs between return and onward probabilities. In particular, the occurrence of prior moves has a striking effect on the probability of onward migration. The variable representing disappointment, or relative success of the initial move, plays a significant role in explaining repeat migration probabilities. The disappointment variable represents the ratio of actural versus expected wage income in the year after the initial move, and its effect on both repeat migration probabilities is always negative and almost always highly significant. The repeat probabilities diminish after a year's stay in the destination region, but disappointment in the most recent year still has a bearing on the delayed repeat probabilities. While the quantitative impact of the disappointment variable is not large, it is difficult to draw comparisons since similar estimates are not available elsewhere.

Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Glenn L.

2009-01-01

A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

Diabetes and Hypertension in India: A Nationally Representative Study of 1.3 Million Adults.

PubMed

Geldsetzer, Pascal; Manne-Goehler, Jennifer; Theilmann, Michaela; Davies, Justine I; Awasthi, Ashish; Vollmer, Sebastian; Jaacks, Lindsay M; Bärnighausen, Till; Atun, Rifat

2018-03-01

Understanding how diabetes and hypertension prevalence varies within a country as large as India is essential for targeting of prevention, screening, and treatment services. However, to our knowledge there has been no prior nationally representative study of these conditions to guide the design of effective policies. To determine the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension in India, and its variation by state, rural vs urban location, and individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. This was a cross-sectional, nationally representative, population-based study carried out between 2012 and 2014. A total of 1 320 555 adults 18 years or older with plasma glucose (PG) and blood pressure (BP) measurements were included in the analysis. State, rural vs urban location, age, sex, household wealth quintile, education, and marital status. Diabetes (PG level ≥126 mg/dL if the participant had fasted or ≥200 mg/dL if the participant had not fasted) and hypertension (systolic BP≥140 mm Hg or diastolic BP≥90 mm Hg). Of the 1 320 555 adults, 701 408 (53.1%) were women. The crude prevalence of diabetes and hypertension was 7.5% (95% CI, 7.3%-7.7%) and 25.3% (95% CI, 25.0%-25.6%), respectively. Notably, hypertension was common even among younger age groups (eg, 18-25 years: 12.1%; 95% CI, 11.8%-12.5%). Being in the richest household wealth quintile compared with being in the poorest quintile was associated with only a modestly higher probability of diabetes (rural: 2.81 percentage points; 95% CI, 2.53-3.08 and urban: 3.47 percentage points; 95% CI, 3.03-3.91) and hypertension (rural: 4.15 percentage points; 95% CI, 3.68-4.61 and urban: 3.01 percentage points; 95% CI, 2.38-3.65). The differences in the probability of both conditions by educational category were generally small (≤2 percentage points). Among states, the crude prevalence of diabetes and hypertension varied from 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7%-3.7%) to 19.9% (95% CI, 17.6%-22.3%), and 18.0% (95% CI, 16.6%-19.5%) to 41.6% (95% CI, 37.8%-45.5%), respectively. Diabetes and hypertension prevalence is high in middle and old age across all geographical areas and sociodemographic groups in India, and hypertension prevalence among young adults is higher than previously thought. Evidence on the variations in prevalence by state, age group, and rural vs urban location is critical to effectively target diabetes and hypertension prevention, screening, and treatment programs to those most in need.

Setting Time Limits on Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

2011-01-01

It is shown how the time limit on a test can be set to control the probability of a test taker running out of time before completing it. The probability is derived from the item parameters in the lognormal model for response times. Examples of curves representing the probability of running out of time on a test with given parameters as a function…

Probability mass first flush evaluation for combined sewer discharges.

PubMed

Park, Inhyeok; Kim, Hongmyeong; Chae, Soo-Kwon; Ha, Sungryong

2010-01-01

The Korea government has put in a lot of effort to construct sanitation facilities for controlling non-point source pollution. The first flush phenomenon is a prime example of such pollution. However, to date, several serious problems have arisen in the operation and treatment effectiveness of these facilities due to unsuitable design flow volumes and pollution loads. It is difficult to assess the optimal flow volume and pollution mass when considering both monetary and temporal limitations. The objective of this article was to characterize the discharge of storm runoff pollution from urban catchments in Korea and to estimate the probability of mass first flush (MFFn) using the storm water management model and probability density functions. As a result of the review of gauged storms for the representative using probability density function with rainfall volumes during the last two years, all the gauged storms were found to be valid representative precipitation. Both the observed MFFn and probability MFFn in BE-1 denoted similarly large magnitudes of first flush with roughly 40% of the total pollution mass contained in the first 20% of the runoff. In the case of BE-2, however, there were significant difference between the observed MFFn and probability MFFn.

Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

2007-01-01

Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

[Factors associated with nutritional supplement consumption in Mexican women aged 12 to 49 years].

PubMed

Mejía-Rodríguez, Fabiola; Camacho-Cisneros, Martha; García-Guerra, Armando; Monterrubio-Flores, Eric; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; Villalpando Hernández, Salvador

2008-06-01

The objectives of this analysis are to identify the types of nutritional supplements (NS) commonly used and explore the associations between NS consumption and socio-demographic characteristics, nutritional status, measured as BMI, and anemia in a nationally representative sample Mexican women aged 12 to 49 years (n = 15,936) who participated in the Mexican National Nutrition Survey in 1999. Data on NS consumption and the other characteristics of interest were collected. We calculated the probability (P) of supplement consumption using logistic regression. For the statistical analysis characteristics at the individual and household level were included in the statistical models, and adjusted for the study design. Interaction effects were also explored. Multiple mixed vitamin and mineral supplements were the most commonly consumed (36.7%) followed by vitamins only (34.3%). Married women were significantly (p < 0.05) more likely (P = 0.16; p < 0.001) to consume NS compared to unmarried women, as were those with more access to public and private health care (P = 0.18; p = 0.010), with higher education level (P = 0.20; p = 0.004) and living in the South region (P = 0.20; p = 0.003). Anemia modified the association between supplement consumption and socioeconomic status (SES) (p = 0.016), non anemic women having greater probabilities of NS consumption. These results suggest that NS use among Mexican women is associated with better living conditions. On the other hand, we also found that women living in the South region, the poorest region of the country, had higher probability of NS consumption compared to the North region. This could be related to participation in food assistance programs; however we were unable to explore this potential explanation. This information will be used to further study trends, risks and health benefits in this population of the use of nutritional supplements.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future reductions in mortality.

A national study of breast and colorectal cancer patients' decision-making for novel personalized medicine genomic diagnostics.

PubMed

Issa, Amalia M; Tufail, Waqas; Atehortua, Nelson; McKeever, John

2013-05-01

Molecular diagnostics are increasingly being used to help guide decision-making for personalized medical treatment of breast and colorectal cancer patients. The main aim of this study was to better understand and determine breast and colorectal cancer patients' decision-making strategies and the trade-offs they make in deciding about characteristics of molecular genomic diagnostics for breast and colorectal cancer. We surveyed a nationally representative sample of 300 breast and colorectal cancer patients using a previously developed web-administered instrument. Eligibility criteria included patients aged 18 years and older with either breast or colorectal cancer. We explored several attributes and attribute levels of molecular genomic diagnostics in 20 scenarios. Our analysis revealed that both breast and colorectal cancer patients weighted the capability of molecular genomic diagnostics to determine the probability of treatment efficacy as being of greater importance than information provided to detect adverse events. The probability of either false-positive or -negative results was ranked highly as a potential barrier by both breast and colorectal patients. However, 78.6% of breast cancer patients ranked the possibility of a 'false-negative test result leading to undertreatment' higher than the 'chance of a false positive, which may lead to overtreatment' (68%). This finding contrasted with the views of colorectal cancer patients who ranked the chance of a false positive as being of greater concern than a false negative (72.8 vs 63%). Overall, cancer patients exhibited a high willingness to accept and pay for genomic diagnostic tests, especially among breast cancer patients. Cancer patients seek a test accuracy rate of 90% or higher. Breast and colorectal cancer patients' decisions about genomic diagnostics are influenced more by the probability of being cured than by avoiding potential severe adverse events. This study provides insights into the relative weight that breast and colorectal cancer patients place on various aspects of molecular genomic diagnostics, and the trade-offs they are willing to make among attributes of such tests.

Percentage of youth meeting federal fruit and vegetable intake recommendations, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, United States and 33 states, 2013

PubMed Central

Thompson, Frances E; Demissie, Zewditu

2016-01-01

Background National and state-level self-reported frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption is available for high school students from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS). YRBSS monitors priority health-risk behaviors among a nationally representative sample of US high school students and representative samples of students in states and selected large urban school districts. However, YRBSS measures intake in times per day and not the cup equivalents national goals use, which limits interpretation. Objective To help states track youth progress, scoring algorithms were developed from external data and applied to 2013 YRBSS data to estimate the percentages of high school students in the nation and 33 states meeting US Department of Agriculture Food Patterns fruit and vegetable intake recommendations. Design 24-hour dietary recalls were used from the 2007–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to fit sex-specific models for 14–18 year olds that estimate probabilities of meeting recommendations as a function of reported frequency of consumption and race/ethnicity, adjusting for day-to-day dietary variation. Model regression parameters were then applied to national cross-sectional YRBSS data (N=12,829) and to data from the 33 states (N=141,006) that had complete fruit and vegetable data to estimate percentages meeting recommendations. Results Based on the prediction equations, 8.5% of high school students nationwide met fruit recommendations (95% confidence interval 4.9%, 12.1%) and 2.1% met vegetable recommendations (95% confidence interval 0.0%, 8.1%). State estimates ranged from 5.3% in Nebraska and Missouri to 8.9% in Florida for fruit and 1.0% in New Jersey, North Dakota, and South Carolina to 3.3% in New Mexico for vegetables. Conclusions This method provides a new tool for states to track youth progress towards meeting dietary recommendations and indicates that a high percentage of youth in all states examined have low intakes of fruits and vegetables. PMID:27988220

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls.

PubMed

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-04-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research.

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls

PubMed Central

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-01-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research. PMID:27087985

Generation of intervention strategy for a genetic regulatory network represented by a family of Markov Chains.

PubMed

Berlow, Noah; Pal, Ranadip

2011-01-01

Genetic Regulatory Networks (GRNs) are frequently modeled as Markov Chains providing the transition probabilities of moving from one state of the network to another. The inverse problem of inference of the Markov Chain from noisy and limited experimental data is an ill posed problem and often generates multiple model possibilities instead of a unique one. In this article, we address the issue of intervention in a genetic regulatory network represented by a family of Markov Chains. The purpose of intervention is to alter the steady state probability distribution of the GRN as the steady states are considered to be representative of the phenotypes. We consider robust stationary control policies with best expected behavior. The extreme computational complexity involved in search of robust stationary control policies is mitigated by using a sequential approach to control policy generation and utilizing computationally efficient techniques for updating the stationary probability distribution of a Markov chain following a rank one perturbation.

Optimized probability sampling of study sites to improve generalizability in a multisite intervention trial.

PubMed

Kraschnewski, Jennifer L; Keyserling, Thomas C; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Gizlice, Ziya; Garcia, Beverly A; Johnston, Larry F; Gustafson, Alison; Petrovic, Lindsay; Glasgow, Russell E; Samuel-Hodge, Carmen D

2010-01-01

Studies of type 2 translation, the adaption of evidence-based interventions to real-world settings, should include representative study sites and staff to improve external validity. Sites for such studies are, however, often selected by convenience sampling, which limits generalizability. We used an optimized probability sampling protocol to select an unbiased, representative sample of study sites to prepare for a randomized trial of a weight loss intervention. We invited North Carolina health departments within 200 miles of the research center to participate (N = 81). Of the 43 health departments that were eligible, 30 were interested in participating. To select a representative and feasible sample of 6 health departments that met inclusion criteria, we generated all combinations of 6 from the 30 health departments that were eligible and interested. From the subset of combinations that met inclusion criteria, we selected 1 at random. Of 593,775 possible combinations of 6 counties, 15,177 (3%) met inclusion criteria. Sites in the selected subset were similar to all eligible sites in terms of health department characteristics and county demographics. Optimized probability sampling improved generalizability by ensuring an unbiased and representative sample of study sites.

Navigating complex sample analysis using national survey data.

PubMed

Saylor, Jennifer; Friedmann, Erika; Lee, Hyeon Joo

2012-01-01

The National Center for Health Statistics conducts the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and other national surveys with probability-based complex sample designs. Goals of national surveys are to provide valid data for the population of the United States. Analyses of data from population surveys present unique challenges in the research process but are valuable avenues to study the health of the United States population. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the importance of using complex data analysis techniques for data obtained with complex multistage sampling design and provide an example of analysis using the SPSS Complex Samples procedure. Illustration of challenges and solutions specific to secondary data analysis of national databases are described using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey as the exemplar. Oversampling of small or sensitive groups provides necessary estimates of variability within small groups. Use of weights without complex samples accurately estimates population means and frequency from the sample after accounting for over- or undersampling of specific groups. Weighting alone leads to inappropriate population estimates of variability, because they are computed as if the measures were from the entire population rather than a sample in the data set. The SPSS Complex Samples procedure allows inclusion of all sampling design elements, stratification, clusters, and weights. Use of national data sets allows use of extensive, expensive, and well-documented survey data for exploratory questions but limits analysis to those variables included in the data set. The large sample permits examination of multiple predictors and interactive relationships. Merging data files, availability of data in several waves of surveys, and complex sampling are techniques used to provide a representative sample but present unique challenges. In sophisticated data analysis techniques, use of these data is optimized.

Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deal, J. H.

1975-01-01

One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

The Power of Probability: Poster/Teaching Guide for Grades 6-8. Expect the Unexpected with Math[R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Actuarial Foundation, 2013

2013-01-01

"The Power of Probability" is a new math program aligned with the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) and Common Core State Standards, which gives students opportunities to practice their skills and knowledge of the mathematics of probability. Developed by The Actuarial Foundation, the program's lessons and worksheets motivate…

Sculpture, general view looking to the seated lions, probably from ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Sculpture, general view looking to the seated lions, probably from the American Bungalow - National Park Seminary, Bounded by Capitol Beltway (I-495), Linden Lane, Woodstove Avenue, & Smith Drive, Silver Spring, Montgomery County, MD

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

PubMed

Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2017-12-01

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

Prevalence of suicide ideation and attempts among Black Americans in later life.

PubMed

Joe, Sean; Ford, Briggett C; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Chatters, Linda M

2014-04-01

This article provides the first national estimates of the prevalence and correlates of nonfatal suicidal behavior among older Black Americans. There is a lack of national data on suicide ideation and attempts across ethnic classifications of Blacks in a nationally representative sample. Data are a subsample from the National Survey of American Life (NSAL), a national U.S. adult household probability sample of 5,191 Black Americans. The WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess older Blacks for nonfatal suicidal behavior and 14 DSM-IV disorders. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to delineate patterns and correlates of nonfatal suicidal behavior. The estimated lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation and attempts among older Blacks in the United States was 6.1% and 2.1%, respectively. On an average it took 2.5 and 5.7 years respectively to go from ideation to attempts or from planning to attempts. Surprisingly, among older Black adults, men reported attempting suicide and seriously consider taking their own lives more than women. Older Blacks at higher risk for suicide attempts were middle aged, had poorer health, were anxious, and had multiple DSM-IV disorders. The results also show that approximately 1 in 4 attempters and 2 in 5 ideators have never sought treatment for their emotional or psychological problems. Preventative care, particularly screening in primary care settings, should consider these findings when treating older Black Americans for psychiatric-related risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitrani, J

Bayesian networks (BN) are an excellent tool for modeling uncertainties in systems with several interdependent variables. A BN is a directed acyclic graph, and consists of a structure, or the set of directional links between variables that depend on other variables, and conditional probabilities (CP) for each variable. In this project, we apply BN's to understand uncertainties in NIF ignition experiments. One can represent various physical properties of National Ignition Facility (NIF) capsule implosions as variables in a BN. A dataset containing simulations of NIF capsule implosions was provided. The dataset was generated from a radiation hydrodynamics code, and itmore » contained 120 simulations of 16 variables. Relevant knowledge about the physics of NIF capsule implosions and greedy search algorithms were used to search for hypothetical structures for a BN. Our preliminary results found 6 links between variables in the dataset. However, we thought there should have been more links between the dataset variables based on the physics of NIF capsule implosions. Important reasons for the paucity of links are the relatively small size of the dataset, and the sampling of the values for dataset variables. Another factor that might have caused the paucity of links is the fact that in the dataset, 20% of the simulations represented successful fusion, and 80% didn't, (simulations of unsuccessful fusion are useful for measuring certain diagnostics) which skewed the distributions of several variables, and possibly reduced the number of links. Nevertheless, by illustrating the interdependencies and conditional probabilities of several parameters and diagnostics, an accurate and complete BN built from an appropriate simulation set would provide uncertainty quantification for NIF capsule implosions.« less

A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data.

PubMed

Esralew, Rachel A; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

2016-07-01

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

Factors associated with geographic variation in cost per episode of care for three medical conditions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective To identify associations between market factors, especially relative reimbursement rates, and the probability of surgery and cost per episode for three medical conditions (cataract, benign prostatic neoplasm, and knee degeneration) with multiple treatment options. Methods We use 2004–2006 Medicare claims data for elderly beneficiaries from sixty nationally representative communities to estimate multivariate models for the probability of surgery and cost per episode of care as a function local market factors, including Medicare physician reimbursement for surgical versus non-surgical treatment and the availability of primary care and specialty physicians. We used Symmetry’s Episode Treatment Groups (ETG) software to group claims into episodes for the three conditions (n = 540,874 episodes). Results Higher Medicare reimbursement for surgical episodes and greater availability of the relevant specialists are significantly associated with more surgery and higher cost per episode for all three conditions, while greater availability of primary care physicians is significantly associated with less frequent surgery and lower cost per episode. Conclusion Relative Medicare reimbursement rates for surgical vs. non-surgical treatments and the availability of both primary care physicians and relevant specialists are associated with the likelihood of surgery and cost per episode. PMID:24949281

Simulation study on characteristics of long-range interaction in randomly asymmetric exclusion process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shi-Bo; Liu, Ming-Zhe; Yang, Lan-Ying

2015-04-01

In this paper we investigate the dynamics of an asymmetric exclusion process on a one-dimensional lattice with long-range hopping and random update via Monte Carlo simulations theoretically. Particles in the model will firstly try to hop over successive unoccupied sites with a probability q, which is different from previous exclusion process models. The probability q may represent the random access of particles. Numerical simulations for stationary particle currents, density profiles, and phase diagrams are obtained. There are three possible stationary phases: the low density (LD) phase, high density (HD) phase, and maximal current (MC) in the system, respectively. Interestingly, bulk density in the LD phase tends to zero, while the MC phase is governed by α, β, and q. The HD phase is nearly the same as the normal TASEP, determined by exit rate β. Theoretical analysis is in good agreement with simulation results. The proposed model may provide a better understanding of random interaction dynamics in complex systems. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41274109 and 11104022), the Fund for Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Innovation Research Team (Grant No. 2011JTD0013), and the Creative Team Program of Chengdu University of Technology.

Preliminary geologic map of the Bowen Mountain quadrangle, Grand and Jackson Counties, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, James C.; Braddock, William A.; Brandt, Theodore R.

2011-01-01

The map shows the geology of an alpine region in the southern Never Summer Mountains, including parts of the Never Summer Wilderness Area, the Bowen Gulch Protection Area, and the Arapaho National Forest. The area includes Proterozoic crystalline rocks in fault contact with folded and overturned Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks and Upper Cretaceous(?) and Paleocene Middle Park Formation. The folding and faulting appears to reflect a singular contractional deformation (post-Middle Park, so probably younger than early Eocene) that produced en echelon structural uplift of the Proterozoic basement of the Front Range. The geologic map indicates there is no through-going \\"Never Summer thrust\\" fault in this area. The middle Tertiary structural complex was intruded in late Oligocene time by basalt, quartz latite, and rhyolite porphyry plugs that also produced minor volcanic deposits; these igneous rocks are collectively referred to informally as the Braddock Peak intrusive-volcanic complex whose type area is located in the Mount Richthofen quadrangle immediately north (Cole and others, 2008; Cole and Braddock, 2009). Miocene boulder gravel deposits are preserved along high-altitude ridges that probably represent former gravel channels that developed during uplift and erosion in middle Tertiary time.

The Effects of Workplace Clean Indoor Air Law Coverage on Workers' Smoking-Related Outcomes.

PubMed

Cheng, Kai-Wen; Liu, Feng; Gonzalez, MariaElena; Glantz, Stanton

2017-02-01

This study investigated the effects of workplace clean indoor air law (CIAL) coverage on worksite compliance with CIALs, smoking participation among indoor workers, and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among nonsmoker indoor workers. This study improved on previous research by using the probability of a resident in a county covered by workplace CIALs, taking into account the state, county, and city legislation. The county-level probability of being covered by a CIAL is merged into two large nationally representative US surveys on smoking behaviors: Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (2001-2010) and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2000-2006) based on the year of the survey and respondent's geographic location to identify respondents' CIAL coverage. This study estimated several model specifications of including and not including state or county fixed effects, and the effects of workplace CIALs are consistent across models. Increased coverage by workplace CIALs significantly increased likelihood of reporting a complete smoking restriction by 8% and 10% for the two different datasets, decreased smoking participation among indoor workers by 12%, and decreased SHS exposure among nonsmokers by 28%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effects of Workplace Clean Indoor Air Law Coverage on Workers’ Smoking-Related Outcomes

PubMed Central

Cheng, Kai-Wen; Liu, Feng; Gonzalez, MariaElena; Glantz, Stanton

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of workplace clean indoor air law (CIAL) coverage on worksite compliance with CIALs, smoking participation among indoor workers, and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among non-smoker indoor workers. This study improved on previous research by using the probability of a resident in a county covered by workplace CIALs taking into account the state, county, and city legislation. The county-level probability of being covered by a CIAL is merged into two large nationally representative US surveys on smoking behaviors: Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (2001–2010) and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2000–2006) based on the year of the survey and respondent’s geographic location to identify respondents’ CIAL coverage. This study estimated several model specifications of including and not including state or county fixed effects, and the effects of workplace CIALs are consistent across models. Increased coverage by workplace CIALs significantly increased likelihood of reporting a complete smoking restriction by 8% and 10% for the two different datasets, decreased smoking participation among indoor workers by 12%, and decreased SHS exposure among non-smokers by 28%. PMID:26639369

Frequent Users of Hospital Emergency Departments in Korea Characterized by Claims Data from the National Health Insurance: A Cross Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Woo, Jung Hoon; Grinspan, Zachary; Shapiro, Jason; Rhee, Sang Youl

2016-01-01

The Korean National Health Insurance, which provides universal coverage for the entire Korean population, is now facing financial instability. Frequent emergency department (ED) users may represent a medically vulnerable population who could benefit from interventions that both improve care and lower costs. To understand the nature of frequent ED users in Korea, we analyzed claims data from a population-based national representative sample. We performed both bivariate and multivariable analyses to investigate the association between patient characteristics and frequent ED use (4+ ED visits in a year) using claims data of a 1% random sample of the Korean population, collected in 2009. Among 156,246 total ED users, 4,835 (3.1%) were frequent ED users. These patients accounted for 14% of 209,326 total ED visits and 17.2% of $76,253,784 total medical expenses generated from all ED visits in the 1% data sample. Frequent ED users tended to be older, male, and of lower socio-economic status compared with occasional ED users (p < 0.001 for each). Moreover, frequent ED users had longer stays in the hospital when admitted, higher probability of undergoing an operative procedure, and increased mortality. Among 8,425 primary diagnoses, alcohol-related complaints and schizophrenia showed the strongest positive correlation with the number of ED visits. Among the frequent ED users, mortality and annual outpatient department visits were significantly lower in the alcohol-related patient subgroup compared with other frequent ED users; furthermore, the rate was even lower than that for non-frequent ED users. Our findings suggest that expanding mental health and alcohol treatment programs may be a reasonable strategy to decrease the dependence of these patients on the ED. PMID:26809051

Can Nonurgent Emergency Department Care Costs be Reduced? Empirical Evidence from a U.S. Nationally Representative Sample.

PubMed

Xin, Haichang; Kilgore, Meredith L; Sen, Bisakha Pia; Blackburn, Justin

2015-09-01

A well-functioning primary care system has the capacity to provide effective care for patients to avoid nonurgent emergency department (ED) use and related costs. This study examined how patients' perceived deficiency in ambulatory care is associated with nonurgent ED care costs nationwide. This retrospective cohort study used data from the 2010-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. This study chose usual source of care, convenience of needed medical care, and patient evaluation of care quality as the main independent variables. The marginal effect following a multivariate logit model was employed to analyze the urgent vs. nonurgent ED care costs in 2011, after controlling for covariates in 2010. The endogeneity was accounted for by the time lag effect and controlling for education levels. Sample weights and variance were adjusted with the survey procedures to make results nationally representative. Patient-perceived poor and intermediate levels of primary care quality had higher odds of nonurgent ED care costs (odds ratio [OR] = 2.22, p = 0.035, and OR = 2.05, p = 0.011, respectively) compared to high-quality care, with a marginal effect (at means) of 13.0% and 11.5% higher predicted probability of nonurgent ED care costs. Costs related to these ambulatory care quality deficiencies amounted to $229 million for private plans (95% confidence interval [CI] $100 million-$358 million), $58.5 million for public plans (95% CI $33.9 million-$83.1 million), and an overall of $379 million (95% CI $229 million-$529 million) nationally. These findings highlight the improvement in ambulatory care quality as the potential target area to effectively reduce nonurgent ED care costs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in dental care access upon health care benefit expansion to include scaling

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. Methods A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010–2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Results Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. Conclusions The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system. PMID:28050318

Changes in dental care access upon health care benefit expansion to include scaling.

PubMed

Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

2016-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010-2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system.

Do People Taking Flu Vaccines Need Them the Most?

PubMed Central

Gu, Qian; Sood, Neeraj

2011-01-01

Background A well targeted flu vaccine strategy can ensure that vaccines go to those who are at the highest risk of getting infected if unvaccinated. However, prior research has not explicitly examined the association between the risk of flu infection and vaccination rates. Purpose This study examines the relationship between the risk of flu infection and the probability of getting vaccinated. Methods Nationally representative data from the US and multivariate regression models were used to estimate what individual characteristics are associated with (1) the risk of flu infection when unvaccinated and (2) flu vaccination rates. These results were used to estimate the correlation between the probability of infection and the probability of getting vaccinated. Separate analyses were performed for the general population and the high priority population that is at increased risk of flu related complications. Results We find that the high priority population was more likely to get vaccinated compared to the general population. However, within both the high priority and general populations the risk of flu infection when unvaccinated was negatively correlated with vaccination rates (r = −0.067, p<0.01). This negative association between the risk of infection when unvaccinated and the probability of vaccination was stronger for the high priority population (r = −0.361, p<0.01). Conclusions There is a poor match between those who get flu vaccines and those who have a high risk of flu infection within both the high priority and general populations. Targeting vaccination to people with low socioeconomic status, people who are engaged in unhealthy behaviors, working people, and families with kids will likely improve effectiveness of flu vaccine policy. PMID:22164202

Effects of Anti- Versus Pro-Vaccine Narratives on Responses by Recipients Varying in Numeracy: A Cross-sectional Survey-Based Experiment.

PubMed

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Wallin, Annika; Parker, Andrew M; Strough, JoNell; Hanmer, Janel

2017-11-01

To inform their health decisions, patients may seek narratives describing other patients' evaluations of their treatment experiences. Narratives can provide anti-treatment or pro-treatment evaluative meaning that low-numerate patients may especially struggle to derive from statistical information. Here, we examined whether anti-vaccine (v. pro-vaccine) narratives had relatively stronger effects on the perceived informativeness and judged vaccination probabilities reported among recipients with lower (v. higher) numeracy. Participants ( n = 1,113) from a nationally representative US internet panel were randomly assigned to an anti-vaccine or pro-vaccine narrative, as presented by a patient discussing a personal experience, a physician discussing a patient's experience, or a physician discussing the experiences of 50 patients. Anti-vaccine narratives described flu experiences of patients who got the flu after getting vaccinated; pro-vaccine narratives described flu experiences of patients who got the flu after not getting vaccinated. Participants indicated their probability of getting vaccinated and rated the informativeness of the narratives. Participants with lower numeracy generally perceived narratives as more informative. By comparison, participants with higher numeracy rated especially anti-vaccine narratives as less informative. Anti-vaccine narratives reduced the judged vaccination probabilities as compared with pro-vaccine narratives, especially among participants with lower numeracy. Mediation analyses suggested that low-numerate individuals' vaccination probabilities were reduced by anti-vaccine narratives-and, to a lesser extent, boosted by pro-vaccine narratives-because they perceived narratives to be more informative. These findings were similar for narratives provided by patients and physicians. Patients with lower numeracy may rely more on narrative information when making their decisions. These findings have implications for the development of health communications and decision aids.

Is Excessive Polypharmacy a Transient or Persistent Phenomenon? A Nationwide Cohort Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Wang, Yi-Jen; Chiang, Shu-Chiung; Lee, Pei-Chen; Chen, Yu-Chun; Chou, Li-Fang; Chou, Yueh-Ching; Chen, Tzeng-Ji

2018-01-01

Objectives: Target populations with persistent polypharmacy should be identified prior to implementing strategies against inappropriate medication use, yet limited information regarding such populations is available. The main objectives were to explore the trends of excessive polypharmacy, whether transient or persistent, at the individual level. The secondary objectives were to identify the factors associated with persistently excessive polypharmacy and to estimate the probabilities for repeatedly excessive polypharmacy. Methods: Retrospective cohort analyses of excessive polypharmacy, defined as prescription of ≥ 10 medicines at an ambulatory visit, from 2001 to 2013 were conducted using a nationally representative claims database in Taiwan. Survival analyses with log-rank test of adult patients with first-time excessive polypharmacy were conducted to predict the probabilities, stratified by age and sex, of having repeatedly excessive polypharmacy. Results: During the study period, excessive polypharmacy occurred in 5.4% of patients for the first time. Among them, 63.9% had repeatedly excessive polypharmacy and the probabilities were higher in men and old people. Men versus women, and old versus middle-aged and young people had shorter median excessive polypharmacy-free times (9.4 vs. 5.5 months, 5.3 vs. 10.1 and 35.0 months, both p < 0.001). Overall, the probabilities of having no repeatedly excessive polypharmacy within 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year were 59.9, 53.6, and 48.1%, respectively. Conclusion: Although male and old patients were more likely to have persistently excessive polypharmacy, most cases of excessive polypharmacy were transient or did not re-appear in the short run. Systemic deprescribing measures should be tailored to at-risk groups. PMID:29515446

Association Between Persistent Pain and Memory Decline and Dementia in a Longitudinal Cohort of Elders.

PubMed

Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Diaz-Ramirez, L Grisell; Glymour, M Maria; Boscardin, W John; Covinsky, Kenneth E; Smith, Alexander K

2017-08-01

Chronic pain is common among the elderly and is associated with cognitive deficits in cross-sectional studies; the population-level association between chronic pain and longitudinal cognition is unknown. To determine the population-level association between persistent pain, which may reflect chronic pain, and subsequent cognitive decline. Cohort study with biennial interviews of 10 065 community-dwelling older adults in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study who were 62 years or older in 2000 and answered pain and cognition questions in both 1998 and 2000. Data analysis was conducted between June 24 and October 31, 2016. "Persistent pain," defined as a participant reporting that he or she was often troubled with moderate or severe pain in both the 1998 and 2000 interviews. Coprimary outcomes were composite memory score and dementia probability, estimated by combining neuropsychological test results and informant and proxy interviews, which were tracked from 2000 through 2012. Linear mixed-effects models, with random slope and intercept for each participant, were used to estimate the association of persistent pain with slope of the subsequent cognitive trajectory, adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidities measures in 2000 and applying sampling weights to represent the 2000 US population. We hypothesized that persistent pain would predict accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia. To quantify the impact of persistent pain on functional independence, we combined our primary results with information on the association between memory and ability to manage medications and finances independently. Of the 10 065 eligible HRS sample members, 60% were female, and median baseline age was 73 years (interquartile range, 67-78 years). At baseline, persistent pain affected 10.9% of participants and was associated with worse depressive symptoms and more limitations in activities of daily living. After covariate adjustment, persistent pain was associated with 9.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-15.0%) more rapid memory decline compared with those without persistent pain. After 10 years, this accelerated memory decline implied a 15.9% higher relative risk of inability to manage medications and an 11.8% higher relative risk of inability to manage finances independently. Adjusted dementia probability increased 7.7% faster (95% CI, 0.55%-14.2%); after 10 years, this translates to an absolute 2.2% increase in dementia probability for those with persistent pain. Persistent pain was associated with accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia.

Geomorphological and sedimentary evidence of probable glaciation in the Jizerské hory Mountains, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Zbyněk; Křížek, Marek; Kasprzak, Marek; Traczyk, Andrzej; Hložek, Martin; Krbcová, Klára

2017-03-01

The Jizerské hory Mountains in the Czech Republic have traditionally been considered to be a highland that lay beyond the limits of Quaternary glaciations. Recent work on cirque-like valley heads in the central part of the range has shown that niche glaciers could form during the Quaternary. Here we report geomorphological and sedimentary evidence for a small glacier in the Pytlácká jáma Hollow that represents one of the most-enclosed valley heads within the range. Shape and size characteristics of this landform indicate that the hollow is a glacial cirque at a degraded stage of development. Boulder accumulations at the downslope side of the hollow probably represent a relic of terminal moraines, and the grain size distribution of clasts together with micromorphology of quartz grains from the hollow indicate the glacial environment of a small glacier. This glacier represents the lowermost located such system in central Europe and provides evidence for the presence of niche or small cirque glaciers probably during pre-Weichselian glacial periods. The glaciation limit (1000 m asl) and paleo-ELA (900 m asl) proposed for the Jizerské hory Mountains implies that central European ranges lower than 1100 m asl were probably glaciated during the Quaternary.

Alternative Tobacco Product Use and Smoking Cessation: A National Study

PubMed Central

Popova, Lucy

2013-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the frequency of alternative tobacco product use (loose leaf, moist snuff, snus, dissolvables, electronic cigarettes [e-cigarettes]) among smokers and the association with quit attempts and intentions. Methods. A nationally representative probability-based cross-sectional survey of 1836 current or recently former adult smokers was completed in November 2011. Multivariate logistic regressions evaluated associations between alternative tobacco product use and smoking cessation behaviors. Results. Of the smokers, 38% had tried an alternative tobacco product, most frequently e-cigarettes. Alternative tobacco product use was associated with having made a quit attempt, and those intending to quit were significantly more likely to have tried and to currently use the products than were smokers with no intentions to quit. Use was not associated with successful quit attempts. Interest in future use of alternative tobacco products was low, except for e-cigarettes. Conclusions. Alternative tobacco products are attractive to smokers who want to quit smoking, but these data did not indicate that alternative tobacco products promote cessation. Unsubstantiated overt and implied claims that alternative tobacco products aid smoking cessation should be prohibited. PMID:23488521

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Patterns of Sexual Risk Behavior and Rates of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Female Young Adults

PubMed Central

Cook, Emily C.; Niccolai, Linda M.; Connell, Christian M.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined patterns of sexual behavior and risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in young adulthood for Black, Hispanic, and White females. Methods. We used a nationally representative sample of 7015 female young adults from wave III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Sexual risk items assessed behaviors occurring in the previous 6 years and past year to determine classes of sexual risk and links to STIs in young adulthood. Results. Latent class analysis revealed 3 sexual risk classes for Black and Hispanic youths and 4 sexual risk classes for White youths. The moderate and high risk classes had the highest probabilities of risky sexual partners, inconsistent condom use, and early age of sexual initiation, which significantly increased odds for STIs compared with recent abstainers. Conclusions. We found different classes of sexual behavior by race/ethnicity, with Black and Hispanic young women most at risk for STIs in young adulthood. Preventive efforts should target younger adolescents and focus on sexual partner behavior. PMID:23488501

Water system unreliability and diarrhea incidence among children in Guatemala.

PubMed

Trudeau, Jennifer; Aksan, Anna-Maria; Vásquez, William F

2018-03-01

This article examines the effect of water system unreliability on diarrhea incidence among children aged 0-5 in Guatemala. We use secondary data from a nationally representative sample of 7579 children to estimate the effects of uninterrupted and interrupted water services on diarrhea incidence. The national scope of this study imposes some methodological challenges due to unobserved geographical heterogeneity. To address this issue, we estimate mixed-effects logit models that control for unobserved heterogeneity by estimating random effects of selected covariates that can vary across geographical areas (i.e. water system reliability). Compared to children without access to piped water, children with uninterrupted water services have a lower probability of diarrhea incidence by approximately 33 percentage points. Conversely, there is no differential effect between children without access and those with at least one day of service interruptions in the previous month. Results also confirm negative effects of age, female gender, spanish language, and garbage disposal on diarrhea incidence. Public health benefits of piped water are realized through uninterrupted provision of service, not merely access. Policy implications are discussed.

Race, Employment Disadvantages, and Heavy Drinking: A Multilevel Model.

PubMed

Lo, Celia C; Cheng, Tyrone C

2015-01-01

We intended to determine (1) whether stress from employment disadvantages led to increased frequency of heavy drinking and (2) whether race had a role in the relationship between such disadvantages and heavy drinking. Study data came from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a prospective study that has followed a representative sample of youth since 1979. Our study employed data from 11 particular years, during which the survey included items measuring respondents' heavy drinking. Our final sample numbered 10,171 respondents, which generated 75,394 person-waves for data analysis. Both of our hypotheses were supported by results from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression capturing the time-varying nature of three employment disadvantages and of the heavy-drinking outcome. Results show that more-frequent heavy drinking was associated with employment disadvantages, and that disadvantages' effects on drinking were stronger for Blacks and Hispanics than for Whites. That worsening employment disadvantages have worse effects on minority groups' heavy drinking (compared to Whites) probably contributes to the racial health disparities in our nation. Policies and programs addressing such disparities are especially important during economic downturns.

Quality, efficiency, and organizational structure.

PubMed

Sterns, Jay B

2007-01-01

Physicians and their practice patterns are the largest single determinant of the level of aggregate national health care expenditures. Integrated delivery systems (organizations linking a multispecialty physician groups and acute care hospitals) appear to be more efficient than other organizational structures while providing better clinical outcomes. To determine whether a subset of hospitals was more or less efficient than the national average, we relied on data from the Dartmouth Atlas Project, which included data from 4,346 hospitals. The analysis was restricted to patients who had one or more of 12 chronic illnesses associated with a high probability of death, and the number of hospitals identified as our control group was 14, represented by 13 organizations. Based on the preliminary data, physicians operating in a multispecialty group appear to use less physician resources to care for their patients and admit less often to a hospital, thereby reducing health care expenditures. As the federal government seeks to foster more efficient health care delivery and better outcomes, it may look to the physician-led integrated delivery network as an example of an efficient and high quality model.

Probability of detection evaluation results for railroad tank cars : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The Transportation Technology Center, Inc. (TTCI) used the approach developed for the National Aeronautics and Space : Association to determine the probability of detection (POD) for various nondestructive test (NDT) methods used during inspection : ...

Teenagers' licensing decisions and their views of licensing policies: a national survey.

PubMed

Williams, Allan F

2011-08-01

One objective was to determine teenage licensing rates on a national basis, interest in early licensure, and reasons for delay. A second objective was to learn teenagers' opinions about licensing policies, important in states considering ways to upgrade their current licensing systems. One thousand three hundred eighty-three 15- to 18-year-olds completed an online survey in November 2010. They were drawn from a nationally representative panel of US households recruited using probability-based sampling. The panel included cell phone-only households, and Internet access was provided to those without it. Weighting procedures were applied so that the study population represented the national US population of 15- to 18-year-olds. Most teens said that they were interested in getting a license as soon as legally possible, but many had not started the process. At 16, teens were about equally divided among those who had not started, those in the learner stage, and those with a restricted or full license. At 18, 62 percent had full licenses; 22 percent had not started. For those old enough to start, lack of a car, costs, parent availability, ability to get around without a car, and being busy with other activities were leading reasons for delay. The majority of teens were not in favor of higher licensing ages. Forty-six percent thought the minimum learner age should be 16; 30 percent thought the full license age should be 18 or older. The majority approved of night (78%) and passenger (57%) restrictions, and 85 and 93 percent endorsed cell phone and texting bans, respectively. When these policies were packaged together in a single law that included an age 16 start, night, passenger, cell phone and texting bans, and a full license at age 18, 74 percent of teens were in favor. Teenagers are not as supportive of strong licensing policies as parents of teens, but there is evidence that they will support comprehensive policies likely to lead to further reductions in teen crash rates.

Comparison of three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilks, Daniel S.

1993-10-01

Performance of 8 three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation data at stations in the northeastern and southeastern United States is investigated. Particular attention is paid to fidelity on the right tail, through use of a bootstrap procedure simulating extrapolation on the right tail beyond the data. It is found that the beta-κ distribution best describes the extreme right tail of annual extreme series, and the beta-P distribution is best for the partial duration data. The conventionally employed two-parameter Gumbel distribution is found to substantially underestimate probabilities associated with the larger precipitation amounts for both annual extreme and partial duration data. Fitting the distributions using left-censored data did not result in improved fits to the right tail.

Landsat TM as a Tool for Locating Habitat for Cerulean Warblers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kellner, Chris

2000-01-01

I believe that I made significant strides in three areas between fall of 1997 and fall of 2000 when I concluded my participation in the JOVE program. First, I acquired skill in digital remote sensing. This was significant to me because it had been 20 years since I had done any work utilizing remote sensing. I used my new skills in two classroom settings (forest ecology and GIS). In addition, I will participate as an instructor of digital remote sensing in a workshop for secondary educators this coming spring. Second, I received funding from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission and the U.S. Forest Service to supplement JOVE funds. Third, and most importantly, a students and I developed a technique using LandSAT TM for identifying habitat for cerulean warblers. We developed a habitat model using logistic regression to discriminate between pixels that had a high probability of representing good cerulean warbler habitat and pixels that had a low probability of representing cerulean warbler habitat. Using this model, we located five significant populations of cerulean warblers in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. These populations were unknown before the initiation of this research and further represent a significant proportion of the known cerulean warblers in Arkansas. Preliminary findings were presented at the Ornithological Societies of America meeting in August of 1999. I also presented findings at the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission Research Symposium held in June of 2000. Finally, one paper is in press: James, D. A., C.J. Kellner, J. Self, and J. Davis., 'Breeding season distribution of cerulean warblers in Arkansas in the 1990's'. In addition, one paper is under construction: 'Population fluctuation and habitat selection by cerulean warblers in upland forests of Arkansas,' and one paper is under consideration: 'LandSAT TM and Logistic regression for identification of cerulean warbler habitat in upland forests of Arkansas.'

Cost of Crashes Related to Road Conditions, United States, 2006

PubMed Central

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Miller, Ted R.

2009-01-01

This is the first study to estimate the cost of crashes related to road conditions in the U.S. To model the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in the crash, we used 2000–03 Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) data, the only dataset that provides detailed information whether road conditions contributed to crash occurrence. We applied the logistic regression results to a costed national crash dataset in order to calculate the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in each crash. In crashes where someone was moderately to seriously injured (AIS-2-6) in a vehicle that harmfully impacted a large tree or medium or large non-breakaway pole, or if the first harmful event was collision with a bridge, we changed the calculated probability of being road-related to 1. We used the state distribution of costs of fatal crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity to estimate the respective state distribution of non-fatal crash costs. The estimated comprehensive cost of traffic crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity was $217.5 billion in 2006. This represented 43.6% of the total comprehensive crash cost. The large share of crash costs related to road design and conditions underlines the importance of these factors in highway safety. Road conditions are largely controllable. Road maintenance and upgrading can prevent crashes and reduce injury severity. PMID:20184840

Over, under, or about right: misperceptions of body weight among food stamp participants.

PubMed

Ver Ploeg, Michele L; Chang, Hung-Hao; Lin, Biing-Hwan

2008-09-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the associations between misperception of body weight and sociodemographic factors such as food stamp participation status, income, education, and race/ethnicity. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999-2004 and multivariate logistic regression are used to estimate how sociodemographic factors are associated with (i) the probability that overweight adults misperceive themselves as healthy weight; (ii) the probability that healthy-weight adults misperceive themselves as underweight; and (iii) the probability that healthy-weight adults misperceive themselves as overweight. NHANES data are representative of the US civilian noninstitutionalized population. The analysis included 4,362 men and 4,057 women. BMI derived from measured weight and height was used to classify individuals as healthy weight or overweight. These classifications were compared with self-reported categorical weight status. We find that differences across sociodemographic characteristics in the propensity to underestimate or overestimate weight status were more pronounced for women than for men. Overweight female food stamp participants were more likely to underestimate weight status than income-eligible nonparticipants. Among healthy-weight and overweight women, non-Hispanic black and Mexican-American women, and women with less education were more likely to underestimate actual weight status. We found few differences across sociodemographic characteristics for men. Misperceptions of weight are common among both overweight and healthy-weight individuals and vary across socioeconomic and demographic groups. The nutrition education component of the Food Stamp Program could increase awareness of healthy body weight among participants.

How Unusual were Hurricane Harvey's Rains?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

We apply an advanced technique for hurricane risk assessment to evaluate the probability of hurricane rainfall of Harvey's magnitude. The technique embeds a detailed computational hurricane model in the large-scale conditions represented by climate reanalyses and by climate models. We simulate 3700 hurricane events affecting the state of Texas, from each of three climate reanalyses spanning the period 1980-2016, and 2000 events from each of six climate models for each of two periods: the period 1981-2000 from historical simulations, and the period 2081-2100 from future simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. On the basis of these simulations, we estimate that hurricane rain of Harvey's magnitude in the state of Texas would have had an annual probability of 0.01 in the late twentieth century, and will have an annual probability of 0.18 by the end of this century, with remarkably small scatter among the six climate models downscaled. If the event frequency is changing linearly over time, this would yield an annual probability of 0.06 in 2017.

Asymptotic Equivalence of Probability Measures and Stochastic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touchette, Hugo

2018-03-01

Let P_n and Q_n be two probability measures representing two different probabilistic models of some system (e.g., an n-particle equilibrium system, a set of random graphs with n vertices, or a stochastic process evolving over a time n) and let M_n be a random variable representing a "macrostate" or "global observable" of that system. We provide sufficient conditions, based on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of P_n and Q_n, for the set of typical values of M_n obtained relative to P_n to be the same as the set of typical values obtained relative to Q_n in the limit n→ ∞. This extends to general probability measures and stochastic processes the well-known thermodynamic-limit equivalence of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, related mathematically to the asymptotic equivalence of conditional and exponentially-tilted measures. In this more general sense, two probability measures that are asymptotically equivalent predict the same typical or macroscopic properties of the system they are meant to model.

Extending health insurance in Ghana: effects of the National Health Insurance Scheme on maternity care.

PubMed

Brugiavini, Agar; Pace, Noemi

2016-12-01

There is considerable interest in exploring the potential of social health insurance in Africa where a number of countries are currently experimenting with different approaches. Since these schemes have been introduced recently and are continuously evolving, it is important to evaluate their effectiveness in the enhancement of health care utilization and reduction of out-of-pocket expenses for potential policy suggestions. To investigate how the National Health Insurance Schemes (NHIS) in Ghana affects the utilization of maternal health care services and medical out-of-pocket expenses. We used nationally-representative household data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS). We analyzed the 2014 GDHS focusing on four outcome variables, i.e. antenatal check up, delivery in a health facility, delivery assisted by a trained person and out-of-pocket expenditure. We estimated probit and bivariate probit models to take into account the issue of self selection into the health insurance schemes. The results suggest that, also taking into account the issue of self selection into the health insurance schemes, the NHIS enrollment positively affects the probability of formal antenatal check-ups before delivery, the probability of delivery in an institution and the probability of being assisted during delivery by a trained person. On the contrary, we find that, once the issue of self-selection is taken into account, the NHIS enrollment does not have a significant effect on out-of-pocket expenditure at the extensive margin. Since a greater utilization of health-care services has a strong positive effect on the current and future health status of women and their children, the health-care authorities in Ghana should make every effort to extend this coverage. In particular, since the results of the first step of the bivariate probit regressions suggest that the educational attainment of women is a strong determinant of enrollment, and those with low education and unable to read are less likely to enroll, information on the NHIS should be disseminated in ways that reach those with little or no education. Moreover, the availability of government health facilities in a region is associated with higher likelihood of enrollment in the NHIS. Accordingly, extending geographical access is an important strategy for expanding NHIS membership and improving access to health-care.

The prevalence and correlates of adult ADHD in the United States: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Adler, Lenard; Barkley, Russell; Biederman, Joseph; Conners, C. Keith; Demler, Olga; Faraone, Stephen V.; Greenhill, Laurence L.; Howes, Mary J.; Secnik, Kristina; Spencer, Thomas; Ustun, T. Bedirhan; Walters, Ellen E.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE Despite growing interest in adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), little is known about prevalence or correlates. METHODS A screen for adult ADHD was included in a probability sub-sample (n = 3199) of 18–44 year old respondents in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a nationally representative household survey that used a lay-administered diagnostic interview to assess a wide range of DSM-IV disorders. Blinded clinical follow-up interviews of adult ADHD were carried out with 154 NCS-R respondents, over-sampling those with a positive screen. Multiple imputation (MI) was used to estimate prevalence and correlates of clinician-assessed adult ADHD. RESULTS Estimated prevalence of current adult ADHD is 4.4%. Significant correlates include being male, previously married, unemployed, and Non-Hispanic White. Adult ADHD is highly comorbid with many other NCS-R/DSM-IV disorders and is associated with substantial role impairment. The majority of cases are untreated, although many obtain treatment for other comorbid mental and substance disorders. CONCLUSIONS Efforts are needed to increase the detection and treatment of adult ADHD. Research is needed to determine whether effective treatment would reduce the onset, persistence, and severity of disorders that co-occur with adult ADHD. PMID:16585449

Public Health Services Utilization and Its Determinants among Internal Migrants in China: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingya; Lin, Senlin; Liang, Di; Qian, Yi; Zhang, Donglan; Hou, Zhiyuan

2017-09-01

There have been obstacles for internal migrants in China in accessing local public health services for some time. This study aimed to estimate the utilization of local public health services and its determinants among internal migrants. Data were from the 2014 and 2015 nationally representative cross-sectional survey of internal migrants in China. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the relationship between socioeconomic, migration, and demographic characteristics and public health services utilization. Our results showed that internal migrants in more developed eastern regions used less public health services. Those with higher socioeconomic status were more likely to use public health services. The years of living in the city of residence were positively associated with the utilization of public health services. Compared to migration within the city, migration across provinces significantly reduced the probability of using health records (OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86-0.90), health education (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94-1.00), and health education on non-communicable diseases (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89-0.95) or through the Internet (OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.99). This study concludes that public health services coverage for internal migrants has seen great improvement due to government subsidies. Internal migrants with lower socioeconomic status and across provinces need to be targeted. More attention should be given to the local government in the developed eastern regions in order to narrow the regional gaps.

Paleomagnetism of Basaltic Lava Flows in Coreholes ICPP 213, ICPP-214, ICPP-215, and USGS 128 Near the Vadose Zone Research Park, Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Champion, Duane E.; Herman, Theodore C.

2003-01-01

A paleomagnetic study was conducted on basalt from 41 lava flows represented in about 2,300 ft of core from coreholes ICPP-213, ICPP-214, ICPP-215, and USGS 128. These wells are in the area of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) Vadose Zone Research Park within the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Paleomagnetic measurements were made on 508 samples from the four coreholes, which are compared to each other, and to surface outcrop paleomagnetic data. In general, subhorizontal lines of correlation exist between sediment layers and between basalt layers in the area of the new percolation ponds. Some of the basalt flows and flow sequences are strongly correlative at different depth intervals and represent important stratigraphic unifying elements. Some units pinch out, or thicken or thin even over short separation distances of about 1,500 ft. A more distant correlation of more than 1 mile to corehole USGS 128 is possible for several of the basalt flows, but at greater depth. This is probably due to the broad subsidence of the eastern Snake River Plain centered along its topographic axis located to the south of INEEL. This study shows this most clearly in the oldest portions of the cored sections that have differentially subsided the greatest amount.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Metadata - National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) is an annual probability survey that collects information on the characteristics of inpatients discharged from non-federal short-stay hospitals in the United States.

Adherence to Dietary Recommendations for Food Group Intakes Is Low in the Mexican Population.

PubMed

Batis, Carolina; Aburto, Tania C; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Pedraza, Lilia S; Rivera, Juan A

2016-09-01

Given the high prevalence of obesity and noncommunicable diseases in Mexico and the key role of dietary quality in these conditions, it is important to determine Mexicans' adherence to dietary recommendations. Our aim was to estimate the percentage of the Mexican population who adhere to dietary recommendations for key food groups. We analyzed 7983 participants aged ≥5 y from the nationally representative Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012. Dietary intake data were collected by using one 24-h recall and a repeated 24-h recall in 9% of the sample. We used the National Cancer Institute method for episodically consumed foods, which uses a 2-part (probability and amount) mixed regression model to estimate the usual intake distribution and its association with sociodemographic variables. For the food groups that are encouraged, only 1-4% of the population (range across sex and age groups) reached the recommended intake of legumes, 4-8% for seafood, 7-16% for fruit and vegetables, and 9-23% for dairy. For food groups that are discouraged, only 10-22% did not exceed the recommended upper limit for sugar-sweetened beverages, 14-42% for high saturated fat and/or added sugar (HSFAS) products, and 9-50% for processed meats, whereas the majority (77-93%) did not exceed the limit for red meat. A lower proportion of adolescents than children and adults adhered to recommendations for several food groups. Participants with higher socioeconomic status (SES) and living in urban areas consumed more (probability of consuming and/or amount consumed) fruit and vegetables, dairy, and HSFAS products, but they consumed fewer legumes than those of lower SES and living in rural areas. These results reveal the poor dietary quality of the Mexican population and the urgent need to shift these habits. If current intakes continue, the burden of disease due to obesity and noncommunicable chronic diseases will likely remain elevated in the Mexican population. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Event Discrimination Using Seismoacoustic Catalog Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, S.; Arrowsmith, S.; Bowman, D.; Downey, N.; Koch, C.

2017-12-01

Presented here are three seismoacoustic catalogs from various years and locations throughout Utah and New Mexico. To create these catalogs, we combine seismic and acoustic events detected and located using different algorithms. Seismoacoustic events are formed based on similarity of origin time and location. Following seismoacoustic fusion, the data is compared against ground truth events. Each catalog contains events originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources. By creating these seismoacoustic catalogs, we show that the fusion of seismic and acoustic data leads to a better understanding of the nature of individual events. The probability of an event being a surface blast given its presence in each seismoacoustic catalog is quantified. We use these probabilities to discriminate between events from natural and anthropogenic sources. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Geremia, Chris; Treanor, John; Wallen, Rick; White, P.J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Rhyan, Jack C.

2015-01-01

The bison (Bison bison) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis (Brucella abortus) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state-space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency-dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density-dependent model in predicting out-of-sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency-dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr−1. The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio (R0) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five-year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30-fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short-term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications.

Measles deaths in Nepal: estimating the national case-fatality ratio.

PubMed

Joshi, Anand B; Luman, Elizabeth T; Nandy, Robin; Subedi, Bal K; Liyanage, Jayantha B L; Wierzba, Thomas F

2009-06-01

To estimate the case-fatality ratio (CFR) for measles in Nepal, determine the role of risk factors, such as political instability, for measles mortality, and compare the use of a nationally representative sample of outbreaks versus routine surveillance or a localized study to establish the national CFR (nCFR). This was a retrospective study of measles cases and deaths in Nepal. Through two-stage random sampling, we selected 37 districts with selection probability proportional to the number of districts in each region, and then randomly selected within each district one outbreak among all those that had occurred between 1 March and 1 September 2004. Cases were identified by interviewing a member of each and every household and tracing contacts. Bivariate analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for a high CFR and determine the time from rash onset until death. Each factor's contribution to the CFR was determined through multivariate logistic regression. From the number of measles cases and deaths found in the study we calculated the total number of measles cases and deaths for all of Nepal during the study period and in 2004. We identified 4657 measles cases and 64 deaths in the study period and area. This yielded a total of about 82 000 cases and 900 deaths for all outbreaks in 2004 and a national CFR of 1.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.5-2.3). CFR ranged from 0.1% in the eastern region to 3.4% in the mid-western region and was highest in politically insecure areas, in the Ganges plains and among cases < 5 years of age. Vitamin A treatment and measles immunization were protective. Most deaths occurred during the first week of illness. To our knowledge, this is the first CFR study based on a nationally representative sample of measles outbreaks. Routine surveillance and studies of a single outbreak may not yield an accurate nCFR. Increased fatalities associated with political insecurity are a challenge for health-care service delivery. The short period from disease onset to death and reduced mortality from treatment with vitamin A suggest the need for rapid, field-based treatment early in the outbreak.

Uncertainty in Mathematics Teaching: The National Curriculum Experiment in Teaching Probability to Primary Pupils

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Threlfall, John

2004-01-01

During the 1980s and 1990s, the quantity of probability being taught in mathematics lessons in primary schools in England and Wales went from minimal to extensive and back again. A great deal of effort was invested in a project to incorporate probability into the primary curriculum that has now almost been abandoned. In this article I will attempt…

Attributes associated with probability of infestation by the pinon ips, Ips confusus, (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in pinon pine, Pinus edulis

Treesearch

Jose E. Negron; Jill L. Wilson

2003-01-01

We examined attributes of pinon pine (Pinus edulis) associated with the probability of infestation by pinon ips (Ips confusus) in an outbreak in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona. We used data collected from 87 plots, 59 infested and 28 uninfested, and a logistic regression approach to estimate the probability ofinfestation based on plotand tree-level attributes....

Survey design and extent estimates for the National Lakes Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted a National Lake Assessment (NLA) in the conterminous USA in 2007 as part of a national assessment of aquatic resources using probability based survey designs. The USEPA Office of Water led the assessment, in cooperation with...

Automatic Item Generation of Probability Word Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holling, Heinz; Bertling, Jonas P.; Zeuch, Nina

2009-01-01

Mathematical word problems represent a common item format for assessing student competencies. Automatic item generation (AIG) is an effective way of constructing many items with predictable difficulties, based on a set of predefined task parameters. The current study presents a framework for the automatic generation of probability word problems…

COUNTRY-LEVEL SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH SURVIVAL PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A CENTENARIAN AMONG OLDER EUROPEAN ADULTS: GENDER INEQUALITY, MALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS.

PubMed

Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

2017-03-01

This study confirms an association between survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators in Europe: the gender inequality index (GII), male labour force participation (MLP) rates and proportions of seats held by women in national parliaments (PWP). The analysis was based on SPBC data from 34 countries obtained from the United Nations (UN). Country-level socioeconomic indicator data were obtained from the UN and World Bank databases. The associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC were assessed using correlation coefficients and multivariate regression models. The findings show significant correlations between the SPBC for women and men aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators: GII (r=-0.674, p=0.001), MLP (r=0.514, p=0.002) and PWP (r=0.498, p=0.003). The SPBC predictors for women and men were lower GIIs and higher MLP and PWP (R 2=0.508, p=0.001). Country-level socioeconomic indicators appear to have an important effect on the probability of becoming a centenarian in European adults aged 65 to 69. Country-level gender equality policies in European counties may decrease the risk of unhealthy old age and increase longevity in elders through greater national gender equality; disparities in GII and other country-level socioeconomic indicators impact longevity probability. National longevity strategies should target country-level gender inequality.

NAFTA literature at the International Trade Commission library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Root, Elizabeth A.

1994-01-01

Most of the US official materials regarding NAFTA originate in the Executive Office of the President, especially the Office of the United States Trade Representative. These materials can be purchased from the U.S.G.P.O. There were also numerous Congressional hearings; many of which are probably now out of print, government agencies and the public are welcome to make copies of the ones in the collections of the ITC libraries. One of the most important sources of materials available in electronic format is the National Trade Data Base, produced by the Department of Commerce. This is a collection of at least 120 separate files containing documents relating to trade. It includes several files specifically on NAFTA, including the text of the treaty. It is available as two CD-ROM's, issued monthly, or on Internet.

Efficient automatic OCR word validation using word partial format derivation and language model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyuan; Misra, Dharitri; Thoma, George R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we present an OCR validation module, implemented for the System for Preservation of Electronic Resources (SPER) developed at the U.S. National Library of Medicine.1 The module detects and corrects suspicious words in the OCR output of scanned textual documents through a procedure of deriving partial formats for each suspicious word, retrieving candidate words by partial-match search from lexicons, and comparing the joint probabilities of N-gram and OCR edit transformation corresponding to the candidates. The partial format derivation, based on OCR error analysis, efficiently and accurately generates candidate words from lexicons represented by ternary search trees. In our test case comprising a historic medico-legal document collection, this OCR validation module yielded the correct words with 87% accuracy and reduced the overall OCR word errors by around 60%.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Propagation Effects and Circuit Performance of Modern Military Radio Systems with Particular Emphasis on those Employing Bandspreading Held in Arcueil (Paris) France 17-21 October 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

probabilit6 de fausse alarme ( Pfa ) lorsque le signal nest pas pr~sent. Le coupiePnd, Pfa perrnet de comparer entre elles les diff6rentes hypoth~ses de...detection of initial sync is required to qualify possible bit slips. The frame acceptance probability PFA , frame rejection probability PFR, frame...a bit slip and those not, represented by PFBS and PFA respectively in Figure 3a. With a frame represented by two halves, the possible outcome may be

Simulating landscape change in the Olympic Peninsula using spatial ecological and socioeconomic data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flamm, R.O.; Gottfried, R.; Lee, R.G.

1994-06-01

Ecological and socioeconomic data were integrated to study landscape change for the Dungeness River basin in the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. A multinomial logit procedure was used to evaluate twenty-two maps representing various data themes to derive transition probabilities of land cover change. Probabilities of forest disturbance were greater on private land than public. Between 1975 and 1988, forest cover increased, grassy/brushy covers decreased, and the number of forest patches increased about 30%. Simulations were run to estimate future land cover. These results were represented as frequency distributions for proportion cover and patch characteristics.

FAA Weather Surveillance Requirements in the Context on NEXRAD.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-19

NEXRAD Technical Requirements NUOC NEXRAD User’s Operations Concept NWS National Weather Service Pd Probability of Detection Pfa Probability of False...Winston 25. Minneapolis-St. Paul Intl. Salem Regional 26. Jacksonville International 54. Bradley International 27. Newark International 55. Roanoke

Dangerous "spin": the probability myth of evidence-based prescribing - a Merleau-Pontyian approach.

PubMed

Morstyn, Ron

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine logical positivist statistical probability statements used to support and justify "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry when viewed from the major philosophical theories of probability, and to propose "phenomenological probability" based on Maurice Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" as a better clinical and ethical basis for psychiatric prescribing. The logical positivist statistical probability statements which are currently used to support "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry have little clinical or ethical justification when subjected to critical analysis from any of the major theories of probability and represent dangerous "spin" because they necessarily exclude the individual , intersubjective and ambiguous meaning of mental illness. A concept of "phenomenological probability" founded on Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" overcomes the clinically destructive "objectivist" and "subjectivist" consequences of logical positivist statistical probability and allows psychopharmacological treatments to be appropriately integrated into psychiatric treatment.

The Impact of Recreational Facilities on National Park Landscapes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimmons, Allan K.

1979-01-01

Discusses a study to examine developed acreage in 14 national parks. Total park acreage is compared to service center and campground acreage and total mileage of primary and secondary roads. The most probable future for national park landscapes is maintenance of the status quo. (Author/KC)

Problematic social media use and depressive symptoms among U.S. young adults: A nationally-representative study.

PubMed

Shensa, Ariel; Escobar-Viera, César G; Sidani, Jaime E; Bowman, Nicholas D; Marshal, Michael P; Primack, Brian A

2017-06-01

Depression is the leading cause of disability worldwide. The suggested association between social media use (SMU) and depression may be explained by the emerging maladaptive use pattern known as problematic social media use (PSMU), characterized by addictive components. We aimed to assess the association between PSMU and depressive symptoms-controlling for overall time and frequency of SMU-among a large sample of U.S. young adults. In October 2014, participants aged 19-32 (N = 1749) were randomly selected from a nationally-representative U.S. probability-based panel and subsequently invited to participate in an online survey. We assessed depressive symptoms using the validated Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) brief depression scale. We measured PSMU using an adapted version of the Bergen Facebook Addiction Scale to encompass broader SMU. Using logistic regression models, we tested the association between PSMU and depressive symptoms, controlling for time and frequency of SMU as well as a comprehensive set of socio-demographic covariates. In the multivariable model, PSMU was significantly associated with a 9% increase in odds of depressive symptoms (AOR [adjusted odds ratio] = 1.09; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.05, 1.13; p < 0.001.) Increased frequency of SMU was also significantly associated with increased depressive symptoms, whereas SMU time was not (AOR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.01; p = 0.001 and AOR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.999-1.001; p = 0.43, respectively). PSMU was strongly and independently associated with increased depressive symptoms in this nationally-representative sample of young adults. PSMU largely explained the association between SMU and depressive symptom, suggesting that it may be how we use social media, not how much, that poses a risk. Intervention efforts aimed at reducing depressive symptoms, such as screenings for maladaptive SMU, may be most successful if they address addictive components and frequency-rather than time-of SMU. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attributes associated with probability of infestation by the pinon Ips, Ips confusus, (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in pinon pine, Pinus edulis

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Jill L. Wilson

2008-01-01

(Please note, this is an abstract only) We examined attributes associated with the probability of infestation by pinon ips (Ips confusus), in pinon pine (Pinus edulis), in an outbreak in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona. We used data collected from 87 plots, 59 infested and 28 uninfested, and a logistic regression approach to estimate the probability of...

Negative values of quasidistributions and quantum wave and number statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peřina, J.; Křepelka, J.

2018-04-01

We consider nonclassical wave and number quantum statistics, and perform a decomposition of quasidistributions for nonlinear optical down-conversion processes using Bessel functions. We show that negative values of the quasidistribution do not directly represent probabilities; however, they directly influence measurable number statistics. Negative terms in the decomposition related to the nonclassical behavior with negative amplitudes of probability can be interpreted as positive amplitudes of probability in the negative orthogonal Bessel basis, whereas positive amplitudes of probability in the positive basis describe classical cases. However, probabilities are positive in all cases, including negative values of quasidistributions. Negative and positive contributions of decompositions to quasidistributions are estimated. The approach can be adapted to quantum coherence functions.

A collision probability analysis of the double-heterogeneity problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hebert, A.

1993-10-01

A practical collision probability model is presented for the description of geometries with many levels of heterogeneity. Regular regions of the macrogeometry are assumed to contain a stochastic mixture of spherical grains or cylindrical tubes. Simple expressions for the collision probabilities in the global geometry are obtained as a function of the collision probabilities in the macro- and microgeometries. This model was successfully implemented in the collision probability kernel of the APOLLO-1, APOLLO-2, and DRAGON lattice codes for the description of a broad range of reactor physics problems. Resonance self-shielding and depletion calculations in the microgeometries are possible because eachmore » microregion is explicitly represented.« less

Validation of the abrasion resistance test protocols and performance criteria of EN13595: The probability of soft tissue injury to motorcycle riders by abrasion resistance of their clothing.

PubMed

Meredith, Lauren; Hurren, Christopher; Clarke, Elizabeth; Fitzharris, Michael; Baldock, Matthew; de Rome, Liz; Olivier, Jake; Brown, Julie

2017-06-01

Motorcyclists represent an increasing proportion of road users globally and are increasingly represented in crash statistics. Soft tissue injuries are the most common type of injuries to crashed motorcyclists. These injuries can be prevented through the use of protective clothing designed for motorcycle use. However, the quality of such clothing is not controlled in many countries around the world. A European Standard was developed to assess the performance of clothing but as this is not mandatory, clothing certified to this Standard is difficult to obtain. Given the importance of this Standard, and that it has been validated only once, further validation work is required. In-depth crash investigation data were used to investigate the relationship between the abrasion resistance performance of clothing and real-world injury outcome. Clothing was collected from riders who crashed on public roads in Sydney and Newcastle, Australia. This clothing was tested according to the EU Standard and the time to hole was recorded. Hospital medical records were reviewed and the association between a rider suffering a soft tissue injury and the time-to-hole for the garment was examined. The probability of soft tissue injury for Level 1 Standard garments was between 40-60%, but more than 60% of garments tested failed to meet the minimum requirement. The findings of this study provide qualified support for the Standard, with a marginal association between time-to-hole and injury being found. This work supports the need for improved safety performance and an increased number of high performing garments being available to motorcyclists. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Gambling and negative life events in a nationally representative sample of UK men.

PubMed

Roberts, Amanda; Sharman, Stephen; Coid, Jeremy; Murphy, Raegan; Bowden-Jones, Henrietta; Cowlishaw, Sean; Landon, Jason

2017-12-01

The links between gambling problems, trauma and life stressors are known to exist but understanding the extent of these relationships will allow for greater efficacy in early intervention and treatment. We investigated these relationships among men and sought to determine whether links were attenuated by alcohol and drug use problems. A cross-sectional UK representative general population survey was conducted in 2009 with 3025 men aged 18-64years. Measurements included self-reported gambling behaviours, as measured by the South Oaks Gambling Scale (SOGS) and traumatic or stressful life events. Covariates included alcohol and drug dependence and socio-demographics. Binary logistic regression models were used to examine associations. Problem gambling (SOGS 3-4) and probable pathological gambling (SOGS 5+) were associated with increased odds of trauma in childhood (e.g. violence in the home (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR) 3.0 (CI=1.8-5.0) and 2.6 (CI=1.7-4.1) respectively), and life stressors in adulthood (e.g. intimate partner violence (AORs 4.5 (CI=2.0-10.3) and 4.7 (CI=2.3-9.7) and homelessness (AORs 2.2 (CI=1.1-4.6) and 3.2 (CI=1.9-5.5)). Results were attenuated when adjusted for probable alcohol and drug dependence with the latter having largest effects. Among men in the United Kingdom, disordered gambling remains uniquely associated with trauma and life stressors in childhood and adulthood after adjusting for alcohol and drug dependence. The results support a need for disordered gambling treatment services to undertake routine screening for alcohol, drugs, IPV and traumatic life events and to tailor treatment that specifically targets the effects of stress for clients who present with such a cluster of issues. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of visual aids for risk evaluation by hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease: results from face-to-face interviews.

PubMed

Magliano, Carlos Alberto da Silva; Monteiro, Andrea Liborio; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Oliveira, Claudia Silvia Rocha; Rebelo, Amanda Rebeca de Oliveira; Pereira, Claudia Cristina de Aguiar

2018-01-01

Communicating information about risk and probability to patients is considered a difficult task. In this study, we aim to evaluate the use of visual aids representing perioperative mortality and long-term survival in the communication process for patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease at the National Institute of Cardiology, a Brazilian public hospital specializing in cardiology. One-on-one interviews were conducted between August 1 and November 20, 2017. Patients were asked to imagine that their doctor was seeking their input in the decision regarding which treatment represented the best option for them. Patients were required to choose between alternatives by considering only the different benefits and risks shown in each scenario, described as the proportion of patients who had died during the perioperative period and within 5 years. Each participant evaluated the same eight scenarios. We evaluated their answers in a qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main findings were that all patients verbally expressed concern about perioperative mortality and that 25% did not express concern about long-term mortality. Twelve percent considered the probabilities irrelevant on the grounds that their prognosis would depend on "God's will." Ten percent of the patients disregarded the reported likelihood of perioperative mortality, deciding to focus solely on the "chance of being cured." In the quantitative analysis, the vast majority of respondents chose the "correct" alternatives, meaning that they made consistent and rational choices. The use of visual aids to present risk attributes appeared feasible in our sample. The impact of heuristics and religious beliefs on shared health decision making needs to be explored better in future studies.

THE NATIONAL CHILDREN'S STUDY: BEGINNING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A NATIONAL-PROBABILITY SAMPLE

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction: The National Children's Study (NCS) is a longitudinal cohort study that will follow a sample of approximately 100,000 children born in the United States from before birth until 21 years of age. The NCS will investigate the separate and combined effects of environmen...

On the feasibility of linking census samples to the National Death Index for epidemiologic studies: a progress report.

PubMed Central

Rogot, E; Feinleib, M; Ockay, K A; Schwartz, S H; Bilgrad, R; Patterson, J E

1983-01-01

To test the feasibility of using large national probability samples provided by the US Census Bureau, a pilot project was initiated to link 230,000 Census-type records to the National Death Index (NDI). Using strict precautions to maintain the complete confidentiality of individual records, the Current Population Survey files of one month in 1973 and one month in 1978 were matched by computer to the 1979 NDI file. The basic question to be addressed was whether deaths so obtained are seriously underestimated when there is no Social Security Number (SSN) in the Census record. The search of the NDI file resulted in 5,542 matches of which about 1,800 appear to be "true positives" representing deaths, the remainder are "false positives." Of the deaths, 80 per cent would still have been detected without SSN in the Census record. The main reasons for missing deaths (false negatives) were discrepancies in the year of birth and in the given name. Assuming certain changes in the NDI matching algorithm, the 80 per cent figure could increase to 85 per cent or higher; however, this could also cause significant increases in the number of false positives. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and Census Bureau staff are currently developing a probabilistic method to eliminate false positives from the NDI output tape. The results of the pilot study indicate that a larger research project is clearly feasible. PMID:6625029

Public support for raising the age of sale for tobacco to 21 in the United States.

PubMed

Winickoff, Jonathan P; McMillen, Robert; Tanski, Susanne; Wilson, Karen; Gottlieb, Mark; Crane, Robert

2016-05-01

The vast majority of tobacco users began before the age of 21. Raising the tobacco sales age to 21 has the potential to reduce tobacco use initiation and progression to regular smoking. Our objective was to assess the level of public support nationally for 'Tobacco 21' initiatives in the USA. The Social Climate Survey of Tobacco Control, a cross-sectional dual-frame survey representing national probability samples of adults was administered in 2013. Respondents were asked to state their agreement level with, 'The age to buy tobacco should be raised to 21.' Of 3245 respondents, 70.5% support raising the age to buy tobacco to 21. The majority of adults in every demographic and smoking status category supported raising the tobacco sales age to 21. In multivariable analyses, support was highest among never smokers, females, African-Americans and older adults. This national study demonstrates broad public support for raising the sales age of tobacco to 21 and will help facilitate wide dissemination of initiatives to increase the legal purchase age at national, state and local levels. Increasing public awareness about the susceptibility and rapid addiction of youth to nicotine may further increase public support for raising the tobacco sale age to 21. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Influence of the HLA characteristics of Italian patients on donor search outcome in unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Testi, M; Andreani, M; Locatelli, F; Arcese, W; Troiano, M; Battarra, M; Gaziev, J; Lucarelli, G

2014-08-01

The information regarding the probability of finding a matched unrelated donor (MUD) within a relatively short time is crucial for the success of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), particularly in patients with malignancies. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 315 Italian patients who started a search for a MUD, in order to assess the distribution of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles and haplotypes in this population of patients and to evaluate the probability of finding a donor. Comparing two groups of patients based on whether or not a 10/10 HLA-matched donor was available, we found that patients who had a fully-matched MUD possessed at least one frequent haplotype more often than the others (45.6% vs 14.3%; P = 0.000003). In addition, analysis of data pertaining to the HLA class I alleles distribution showed that, in the first group of patients, less common alleles were under-represented (20.2% vs 40.0%; P = 0.006). Therefore, the presence of less frequent alleles represents a negative factor for the search for a potential compatible donor being successful, whereas the presence of one frequent haplotype represents a positive predictive factor. Antigenic differences between patient and donor observed at C and DQB1 loci, were mostly represented by particular B/C or DRB1/DQB1 allelic associations. Thus, having a particular B or DRB1 allele, linked to multiple C or DQB1 alleles, respectively, might be considered to be associated with a lower probability of a successful search. Taken together, these data may help determine in advance the probability of finding a suitable unrelated donor for an Italian patient. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Probability, Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, R.

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of the Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. They represent a practical response to a proposal by CCSM that some elements of probability be introduced in the elementary grades. These materials provide children…

Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.

2014-01-01

If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

The Effects and Side-Effects of Statistics Education: Psychology Students' (Mis-)Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina; Chiesi, Francesca; Handley, Simon

2009-01-01

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists'…

The Neural Correlates of Health Risk Perception in Individuals with Low and High Numeracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vogel, Stephan E.; Keller, Carmen; Koschutnig, Karl; Reishofer, Gernot; Ebner, Franz; Dohle, Simone; Siegrist, Michael; Grabner, Roland H.

2016-01-01

The ability to use numerical information in different contexts is a major goal of mathematics education. In health risk communication, outcomes of a medical condition are frequently expressed in probabilities. Difficulties to accurately represent probability information can result in unfavourable medical decisions. To support individuals with…

Statistical analysis of CSP plants by simulating extensive meteorological series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavón, Manuel; Fernández, Carlos M.; Silva, Manuel; Moreno, Sara; Guisado, María V.; Bernardos, Ana

2017-06-01

The feasibility analysis of any power plant project needs the estimation of the amount of energy it will be able to deliver to the grid during its lifetime. To achieve this, its feasibility study requires a precise knowledge of the solar resource over a long term period. In Concentrating Solar Power projects (CSP), financing institutions typically requires several statistical probability of exceedance scenarios of the expected electric energy output. Currently, the industry assumes a correlation between probabilities of exceedance of annual Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) and energy yield. In this work, this assumption is tested by the simulation of the energy yield of CSP plants using as input a 34-year series of measured meteorological parameters and solar irradiance. The results of this work show that, even if some correspondence between the probabilities of exceedance of annual DNI values and energy yields is found, the intra-annual distribution of DNI may significantly affect this correlation. This result highlights the need of standardized procedures for the elaboration of representative DNI time series representative of a given probability of exceedance of annual DNI.

Second-order contrast based on the expectation of effort and reinforcement.

PubMed

Clement, Tricia S; Zentall, Thomas R

2002-01-01

Pigeons prefer signals for reinforcement that require greater effort (or time) to obtain over those that require less effort to obtain (T. S. Clement, J. Feltus, D. H. Kaiser, & T. R. Zentall, 2000). Preference was attributed to contrast (or to the relatively greater improvement in conditions) produced by the appearance of the signal when it was preceded by greater effort. In Experiment 1, the authors of the present study demonstrated that the expectation of greater effort was sufficient to produce such a preference (a second-order contrast effect). In Experiments 2 and 3, low versus high probability of reinforcement was substituted for high versus low effort, respectively, with similar results. In Experiment 3, the authors found that the stimulus preference could be attributed to positive contrast (when the discriminative stimuli represented an improvement in the probability of reinforcement) and perhaps also negative contrast (when the discriminative stimuli represented reduction in the probability of reinforcement).

Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald E.; Deacon, Keith S.

2000-07-01

A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example.

PubMed

Harvey, Raymond A; Hayden, Jennifer D; Kamble, Pravin S; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Huang, Joanna C

2017-04-01

We compared methods to control bias and confounding in observational studies including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and stabilized IPW (sIPW). These methods often require iteration and post-calibration to achieve covariate balance. In comparison, entropy balance (EB) optimizes covariate balance a priori by calibrating weights using the target's moments as constraints. We measured covariate balance empirically and by simulation by using absolute standardized mean difference (ASMD), absolute bias (AB), and root mean square error (RMSE), investigating two scenarios: the size of the observed (exposed) cohort exceeds the target (unexposed) cohort and vice versa. The empirical application weighted a commercial health plan cohort to a nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey target on the same covariates and compared average total health care cost estimates across methods. Entropy balance alone achieved balance (ASMD ≤ 0.10) on all covariates in simulation and empirically. In simulation scenario I, EB achieved the lowest AB and RMSE (13.64, 31.19) compared with IPW (263.05, 263.99) and sIPW (319.91, 320.71). In scenario II, EB outperformed IPW and sIPW with smaller AB and RMSE. In scenarios I and II, EB achieved the lowest mean estimate difference from the simulated population outcome ($490.05, $487.62) compared with IPW and sIPW, respectively. Empirically, only EB differed from the unweighted mean cost indicating IPW, and sIPW weighting was ineffective. Entropy balance demonstrated the bias-variance tradeoff achieving higher estimate accuracy, yet lower estimate precision, compared with IPW methods. EB weighting required no post-processing and effectively mitigated observed bias and confounding. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Colorectal cancer outcomes and treatment patterns in patients too young for average-risk screening.

PubMed

Abdelsattar, Zaid M; Wong, Sandra L; Regenbogen, Scott E; Jomaa, Diana M; Hardiman, Karin M; Hendren, Samantha

2016-03-15

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend initiating screening at age 50 years, the percentage of cancer cases in younger patients is increasing. To the authors' knowledge, the national treatment patterns and outcomes of these patients are largely unknown. The current study was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of the nationally representative Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1998 through 2011. Patients were categorized as being younger or older than the recommended screening age. Differences with regard to stage of disease at diagnosis, patterns of therapy, and disease-specific survival were compared between age groups using multinomial regression, multiple regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and Weibull survival analysis. Of 258,024 patients with CRC, 37,847 (15%) were aged <50 years. Young patients were more likely to present with regional (relative risk ratio, 1.3; P<.001) or distant (relative risk ratio, 1.5; P<.001) disease. Patients with CRC with distant metastasis in the younger age group were more likely to receive surgical therapy for their primary tumor (adjusted probability: 72% vs 63%; P<.001), and radiotherapy also was more likely in younger patients with CRC (adjusted probability: 53% vs 48%; P<.001). Patients younger than the recommended screening age had better overall disease-specific survival (hazards ratio, 0.77; P<.001), despite a larger percentage of these individuals presenting with advanced disease. Patients with CRC diagnosed at age <50 years are more likely to present with advanced-stage disease. However, they receive more aggressive therapy and achieve longer disease-specific survival, despite the greater percentage of patients with advanced-stage disease. These findings suggest the need for improved risk assessment and screening decisions for younger adults. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

166. ARAIII Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

166. ARA-III Fire hose houses (Probably numbered on site as ARA-624). Aerojet-general 880-area/GCRE-701-S-4. Date: February 1958. Ineel index code no. 063-0624-00-013-102695. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Army Reactors Experimental Area, Scoville, Butte County, ID

A rational decision rule with extreme events.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello

2006-12-01

Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.

Conditional Probabilities and Collapse in Quantum Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laura, Roberto; Vanni, Leonardo

2008-09-01

We show that including both the system and the apparatus in the quantum description of the measurement process, and using the concept of conditional probabilities, it is possible to deduce the statistical operator of the system after a measurement with a given result, which gives the probability distribution for all possible consecutive measurements on the system. This statistical operator, representing the state of the system after the first measurement, is in general not the same that would be obtained using the postulate of collapse.

[An exploratory study of functional literacy on health care behaviors in Chile].

PubMed

Russo, Moisés

2015-07-01

Health Literacy is the set of skills that constitute the ability to perform reading and numerical tasks to function in the health care environment. People with functional illiteracy are unable to understand written documents and therefore sanitary information. To explore the effects of functional illiteracy on personal health care behaviors in Chile. Using the Chilean Social Characterization Survey of 2006, respondents were separated into those that had read a book in the last year and those that had not as a proxy variable for functional literacy. Using econometric models, the impact of this variable on having a Papanicolaou (PAP) smear done and consulting in primary health clinics rather than in emergency services, was explored. The survey is nationally representative, and 76% interviewees declared not having read a book in the last year. Probability of having a PAP smear done during the last three years was higher among women who had read a book with an OR of 1.19 (1.15-1.25). Likewise, the probability of consulting in emergency services rather than in primary health clinics was lower among those who had read a book with an OR of 0.85 (0.80-0.91). This study provides evidence of possible impacts of low functional literacy in health care behaviors in the Chilean population.

Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.

PubMed

Wen, Hui-Ju; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lin, Shio-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon

2015-05-01

Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Computer simulation of the probability that endangered whales will interact with oil spills, Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, M.; Jayko, K.; Bowles, A.

1986-10-01

A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration diving-surfacing models, and an oil-spill-trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The distribution of animals is represented in space and time by discrete points, each of which may represent one or more whales. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random-walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway.

Zonal management of arsenic contaminated ground water in Northwestern Bangladesh.

PubMed

Hill, Jason; Hossain, Faisal; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C

2009-09-01

This paper used ordinary kriging to spatially map arsenic contamination in shallow aquifers of Northwestern Bangladesh (total area approximately 35,000 km(2)). The Northwestern region was selected because it represents a relatively safer source of large-scale and affordable water supply for the rest of Bangladesh currently faced with extensive arsenic contamination in drinking water (such as the Southern regions). Hence, the work appropriately explored sustainability issues by building upon a previously published study (Hossain et al., 2007; Water Resources Management, vol. 21: 1245-1261) where a more general nation-wide assessment afforded by kriging was identified. The arsenic database for reference comprised the nation-wide survey (of 3534 drinking wells) completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) of Bangladesh. Randomly sampled networks of zones from this reference database were used to develop an empirical variogram and develop maps of zonal arsenic concentration for the Northwestern region. The remaining non-sampled zones from the reference database were used to assess the accuracy of the kriged maps. Two additional criteria were explored: (1) the ability of geostatistical interpolators such as kriging to extrapolate information on spatial structure of arsenic contamination beyond small-scale exploratory domains; (2) the impact of a priori knowledge of anisotropic variability on the effectiveness of geostatistically based management. On the average, the kriging method was found to have a 90% probability of successful prediction of safe zones according to the WHO safe limit of 10ppb while for the Bangladesh safe limit of 50ppb, the safe zone prediction probability was 97%. Compared to the previous study by Hossain et al. (2007) over the rest of the contaminated country side, the probability of successful detection of safe zones in the Northwest is observed to be about 25% higher. An a priori knowledge of anisotropy was found to have inconclusive impact on the effectiveness of kriging. It was, however, hypothesized that a preferential sampling strategy that honored anisotropy could be necessary to reach a more definitive conclusion in regards to this issue.

Detection probabilities and site occupancy estimates for amphibians at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, L.L.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.; Smith, Kimberly G.; Dodd, C.K.

2006-01-01

We conducted an amphibian inventory at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge from August 2000 to June 2002 as part of the U.S. Department of the Interior's national Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative. Nineteen species of amphibians (15 anurans and 4 caudates) were documented within the Refuge, including one protected species, the Gopher Frog Rana capito. We also collected 1 y of monitoring data for amphibian populations and incorporated the results into the inventory. Detection probabilities and site occupancy estimates for four species, the Pinewoods Treefrog (Hyla femoralis), Pig Frog (Rana grylio), Southern Leopard Frog (R. sphenocephala) and Carpenter Frog (R. virgatipes) are presented here. Detection probabilities observed in this study indicate that spring and summer surveys offer the best opportunity to detect these species in the Refuge. Results of the inventory suggest that substantial changes may have occurred in the amphibian fauna within and adjacent to the swamp. However, monitoring the amphibian community of Okefenokee Swamp will prove difficult because of the logistical challenges associated with a rigorous statistical assessment of status and trends.

50 CFR 221.10 - Who may represent a party, and what requirements apply to a representative?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 10 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Who may represent a party, and what requirements apply to a representative? 221.10 Section 221.10 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS...

50 CFR 221.10 - Who may represent a party, and what requirements apply to a representative?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Who may represent a party, and what requirements apply to a representative? 221.10 Section 221.10 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS...

Focus in High School Mathematics: Statistics and Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2009

2009-01-01

Reasoning about and making sense of statistics and probability are essential to students' future success. This volume belongs to a series that supports National Council of Teachers of Mathematics' (NCTM's) "Focus in High School Mathematics: Reasoning and Sense Making" by providing additional guidance for making reasoning and sense making part of…

Spatial prediction models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability-based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

REGIONAL AND STATE VIEWS OF ESTUARINE CONDITION IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATE BASED ON 2001 AND 2001 NATIONAL COASTAL ASSESSMENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Coastal Assessment (NCA) is a probability-based survey that permits assessment of estuarine conditions at national, regional, or large-system scales. Additionally, states may use these data to comply with requirements of the Clean Water Act (CWA), which mandates re...

Quantifying recent erosion and sediment delivery using probability sampling: A case study

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2002-01-01

Abstract - Estimates of erosion and sediment delivery have often relied on measurements from locations that were selected to be representative of particular terrain types. Such judgement samples are likely to overestimate or underestimate the mean of the quantity of interest. Probability sampling can eliminate the bias due to sample selection, and it permits the...

Approximating Multivariate Normal Orthant Probabilities. ONR Technical Report. [Biometric Lab Report No. 90-1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbons, Robert D.; And Others

The probability integral of the multivariate normal distribution (ND) has received considerable attention since W. F. Sheppard's (1900) and K. Pearson's (1901) seminal work on the bivariate ND. This paper evaluates the formula that represents the "n x n" correlation matrix of the "chi(sub i)" and the standardized multivariate…

Variation in Generational Perceptions of Child Health and Well-being.

PubMed

Freed, Gary L; Davis, Matthew M; Singer, Dianne C; Gebremariam, Acham; Schultz, Sara L; Matos-Moreno, Amilcar; Wietecha, Mark

To assess adults' perceptions regarding the health and well-being of children today relative to their own health and well-being as youth and the potential for intergenerational differences in those perceptions. A cross-sectional, Internet-based survey of a nationally representative household sample was conducted using GfK Custom Research's Web-enabled KnowledgePanel, a probability-based panel representative of the US population. We assessed perceptions of children's health and well-being today compared to when respondents were growing up, including physical and mental health; and children's education, exercise, diet, health care, safety of communities, and emotional support from families, groups, and organizations. Overall, 1330 (65%) of 2047 adult respondents completed the survey. Only 26% of respondents believed that the current physical health of children, and 14% that the current mental health of children, is better today than when they were growing up. There was a significant trend among generations, with a greater proportion of older generations perceiving the physical health of children to be better today. Only 15% of respondents reported the chances for a child to grow up with good mental health in the future are "better" now than when they were growing up. Adults across all generations in the United States today view children's health as unlikely to meet the goals of the American Dream of continuous improvement. Although demographic changes require continued focus on our aging population, we must equally recognize the importance of advancing a healthy future for our nation's children, who will assume the mantle of our future. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public Health Services Utilization and Its Determinants among Internal Migrants in China: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jingya; Lin, Senlin; Liang, Di; Qian, Yi; Zhang, Donglan; Hou, Zhiyuan

2017-01-01

There have been obstacles for internal migrants in China in accessing local public health services for some time. This study aimed to estimate the utilization of local public health services and its determinants among internal migrants. Data were from the 2014 and 2015 nationally representative cross-sectional survey of internal migrants in China. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the relationship between socioeconomic, migration, and demographic characteristics and public health services utilization. Our results showed that internal migrants in more developed eastern regions used less public health services. Those with higher socioeconomic status were more likely to use public health services. The years of living in the city of residence were positively associated with the utilization of public health services. Compared to migration within the city, migration across provinces significantly reduced the probability of using health records (OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.90), health education (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94–1.00), and health education on non–communicable diseases (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89–0.95) or through the Internet (OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94–0.99). This study concludes that public health services coverage for internal migrants has seen great improvement due to government subsidies. Internal migrants with lower socioeconomic status and across provinces need to be targeted. More attention should be given to the local government in the developed eastern regions in order to narrow the regional gaps. PMID:28862682

Ability to pay and equity in access to Italian and British National Health Services.

PubMed

Domenighetti, Gianfranco; Vineis, Paolo; De Pietro, Carlo; Tomada, Angelo

2010-10-01

Equity in delivery and distribution of health care is an important determinant of health and a cornerstone in the long way to social justice. We performed a comparative analysis of the prevalence of Italian and British residents who have fully paid out-of-pocket for health services which they could have obtained free of charge or at a lower cost from their respective National Health Services. Cross-sectional study based on a standardized questionnaire survey carried out in autumn 2006 among two representative samples (n = 1000) of the general population aged 20-74 years in each of the two countries. 78% (OR 19.9; 95% CI 15.5-25.6) of Italian residents have fully paid out-of-pocket for at least one access to health services in their lives, and 45% (OR 18.1; 95% CI 12.9-25.5) for more than five accesses. Considering only the last 2 years, 61% (OR 16.5; 95% CI 12.6-21.5) of Italians have fully paid out-of-pocket for at least one access. The corresponding pattern for British residents is 20 and 4% for lifelong prevalence, and 10% for the last 2 years. Opening the public health facilities to a privileged private access to all hospital physicians based on patient's ability to pay, as Italy does, could be a source of social inequality in access to care and could probably represent a major obstacle to decreasing waiting times for patients in the standard formal 'free of charge' way of access.

Cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene versus raloxifene in the treatment of postmenopausal women in Spain

PubMed Central

Darbà, Josep; Pérez-Álvarez, Nuria; Kaskens, Lisette; Holgado-Pérez, Susana; Racketa, Jill; Rejas, Javier

2013-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene and raloxifene for prevention of vertebral and nonvertebral fractures among postmenopausal Spanish women aged 55–82 years with established osteoporosis and a high fracture risk. Methods A Markov model was developed to represent the transition of a cohort of postmenopausal osteoporotic women through different health states, ie, patients free of fractures, patients with vertebral or nonvertebral fractures, and patients recovered from a fracture. Efficacy data for bazedoxifene were obtained from the Osteoporosis Study. The perspective of the Spanish National Health Service was chosen with a time horizon of 27 years. Costs were reported in 2010 Euros. Deterministic results were presented as expected cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and probabilistic results were represented in cost-effectiveness planes. Results In deterministic analysis, the expected cost per patient was higher in the raloxifene cohort (€13,881) than in the bazedoxifene cohort (€13,436). QALYs gained were slightly higher in the bazedoxifene cohort (14.56 versus 14.54). Results from probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that bazedoxifene has a slightly higher probability of being cost-effective for all threshold values independent of the maximum that the National Health Service is willing to pay per additional QALY. Conclusion Bazedoxifene was shown to be a cost-effective treatment option for the prevention of fractures in Spanish women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and a high fracture risk. When comparing bazedoxifene with raloxifene, it may be concluded that the former is the dominant strategy. PMID:23882153

Sleep and sickness absence: a nationally representative register-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Lallukka, Tea; Kaikkonen, Risto; Härkänen, Tommi; Kronholm, Erkki; Partonen, Timo; Rahkonen, Ossi; Koskinen, Seppo

2014-09-01

We aimed to examine various sleep measures as determinants of sickness absence while considering confounders. Nationally representative Health 2000 Survey linked with sickness absence data from the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Finland. Working-aged women (n = 1,875) and men (n = 1,885). N/A. Insomnia-related symptoms, early morning awakenings, being more tired during daytime than other people of same age, use of sleeping pills, excessive daytime sleepiness, probable sleep apnea (4 items about snoring/apnea), and reporting that sleep duration varies between different seasons were examined as determinants of sickness absence over a 7.2 year follow-up. Poisson and gamma regression models were fitted. After adjusting age, all examined sleep disturbances except excessive daytime sleepiness were associated with sickness absence among men (RRs 1.3-2.5). Among women, after adjusting for age, insomnia-related symptoms, early morning awakenings, being more tired than others, and use of sleeping pills were associated with sickness absence (RRs 1.4-1.8). After further adjustments for education, working conditions, health behaviors, and objectively measured mental and somatic health, the associations somewhat attenuated but mainly remained. The optimal sleep duration with the lowest risk of sickness absence was 7.6 hours for women and 7.8 hours for men. Although persistence of other health problems could affect the estimates, direct costs due to sickness absence could decrease by up to 28% if sleep disturbances could be fully addressed. This study highlights the need for prevention of sleep disturbances and promotion of optimal sleep length to prevent sickness absence. © 2014 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Perceptions of randomness in binary sequences: Normative, heuristic, or both?

PubMed

Reimers, Stian; Donkin, Chris; Le Pelley, Mike E

2018-03-01

When people consider a series of random binary events, such as tossing an unbiased coin and recording the sequence of heads (H) and tails (T), they tend to erroneously rate sequences with less internal structure or order (such as HTTHT) as more probable than sequences containing more structure or order (such as HHHHH). This is traditionally explained as a local representativeness effect: Participants assume that the properties of long sequences of random outcomes-such as an equal proportion of heads and tails, and little internal structure-should also apply to short sequences. However, recent theoretical work has noted that the probability of a particular sequence of say, heads and tails of length n, occurring within a larger (>n) sequence of coin flips actually differs by sequence, so P(HHHHH)

Challenges for psychiatric recruitment and training in Chile.

PubMed

Vicente, Benjamín; Rosel, Leonardo

2013-08-01

This paper aims to describe the current challenges to recruitment of psychiatrists in Chile, and investigate factors related to interest in psychiatry from medical students of the Chilean Biobío Region. An online survey was completed by 39 medical students currently performing the internship. This survey included questions regarding socio-demographic aspects, probability of choosing a medical speciality, influencing factors on the choice of the medical speciality, and personal features. Students were separated in two groups for the analysis based on their likelihood of choosing psychiatry as a career. A total of 35.9% of the respondents showed some degree of interest in psychiatry. Factors considered important by the respondents were academic opportunities, training vacancies, and balance between job and personal life. The low participation in the study does not allow the extrapolation of data to the national situation, and may represent response bias to those already interested in psychiatry as a career. However, Chile has an average psychiatrist rate per number of inhabitants for the region, but an uneven distribution of this resource. National policies must be focused on this issue in order to reduce the gap in mental healthcare.

Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-02-01

Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

Sexual Contact in Childhood, Revictimization, and Lifetime Sexual and Psychological Outcomes.

PubMed

Das, Aniruddha; Otis, Nicholas

2016-07-01

Using data from the 2010 to 2011 wave of the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project-a nationally representative probability sample of older U.S. adults-this study queried distinctive linkages of mild and of severe childhood sexual contact with lifetime sexual and psychological outcomes among women and men aged 60-99 years (N = 3283). In addition, we examined stratification of these associations by sexual revictimization (forced sex and/or harassment). Among women, sequelae of childhood contact seemed consistently negative for the mild rather than severe variant-but only in the co-presence of revictimization-a pattern that may have remained obscured in previous analysis of event effects. Men's results suggested lifelong eroticizing but not psychological effects of this early experience-with the co-presence of revictimization potentially enhancing rather than lowering their mental health. Overall, findings appeared to reflect gendered patterns of risk-with mild childhood contact potentially channeling women but not men into revictimization and finally to elevated sexuality and poor mental health in late life. Early sexual experiences should thus be conceptualized not as singular events, but as part of a lifelong career with regularities and rhythms that may influence their pathogenic potential.

ADHD and the externalizing spectrum: direct comparison of categorical, continuous, and hybrid models of liability in a nationally representative sample.

PubMed

Carragher, Natacha; Krueger, Robert F; Eaton, Nicholas R; Markon, Kristian E; Keyes, Katherine M; Blanco, Carlos; Saha, Tulshi D; Hasin, Deborah S

2014-08-01

Alcohol use disorders, substance use disorders, and antisocial personality disorder share a common externalizing liability, which may also include attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, few studies have compared formal quantitative models of externalizing liability, with the aim of delineating the categorical and/or continuous nature of this liability in the community. This study compares categorical, continuous, and hybrid models of externalizing liability. Data were derived from the 2004-2005 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (N = 34,653). Seven disorders were modeled: childhood ADHD and lifetime diagnoses of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), nicotine dependence, alcohol dependence, marijuana dependence, cocaine dependence, and other substance dependence. The continuous latent trait model provided the best fit to the data. Measurement invariance analyses supported the fit of the model across genders, with females displaying a significantly lower probability of experiencing externalizing disorders. Cocaine dependence, marijuana dependence, other substance dependence, alcohol dependence, ASPD, nicotine dependence, and ADHD provided the greatest information, respectively, about the underlying externalizing continuum. Liability to externalizing disorders is continuous and dimensional in severity. The findings have important implications for the organizational structure of externalizing psychopathology in psychiatric nomenclatures.

Socioeconomic differences in attitudes and beliefs about healthy lifestyles.

PubMed

Wardle, J; Steptoe, A

2003-06-01

s: The factors underlying socioeconomic status differences in smoking, leisure time physical activity, and dietary choice are poorly understood. This study investigated attitudes and beliefs that might underlie behavioural choices, including health locus of control, future salience, subjective life expectancy, and health consciousness, in a nationally representative sample. Data were collected as part of the monthly Omnibus survey of the Office of National Statistics in Britain. A stratified, probability sample of 2728 households was selected by random sampling of addresses. One adult from each household was interviewed. Higher SES respondents were less likely to smoke and more likely to exercise and eat fruit and vegetables daily. Lower SES was associated with less health consciousness (thinking about things to do to keep healthy), stronger beliefs in the influence of chance on health, less thinking about the future, and lower life expectancies. These attitudinal factors were in turn associated with unhealthy behavioural choices, independently of age, sex, and self rated health. Socioeconomic differences in healthy lifestyles are associated with differences in attitudes to health that may themselves arise through variations in life opportunities and exposure to material hardship and ill health over the life course.

Contaminants in fish tissue from US lakes and reservoirs: a national probabilistic study.

PubMed

Stahl, Leanne L; Snyder, Blaine D; Olsen, Anthony R; Pitt, Jennifer L

2009-03-01

An unequal probability design was used to develop national estimates for 268 persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic chemicals in fish tissue from lakes and reservoirs of the conterminous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes and Great Salt Lake). Predator (fillet) and bottom-dweller (whole body) composites were collected from 500 lakes selected randomly from the target population of 147,343 lakes in the lower 48 states. Each of these composite types comprised nationally representative samples whose results were extrapolated to the sampled population of an estimated 76,559 lakes for predators and 46,190 lakes for bottom dwellers. Mercury and PCBs were detected in all fish samples. Dioxins and furans were detected in 81% and 99% of predator and bottom-dweller samples, respectively. Cumulative frequency distributions showed that mercury concentrations exceeded the EPA 300 ppb mercury fish tissue criterion at nearly half of the lakes in the sampled population. Total PCB concentrations exceeded a 12 ppb human health risk-based consumption limit at nearly 17% of lakes, and dioxins and furans exceeded a 0.15 ppt (toxic equivalent or TEQ) risk-based threshold at nearly 8% of lakes in the sampled population. In contrast, 43 target chemicals were not detected in any samples. No detections were reported for nine organophosphate pesticides, one PCB congener, 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or 17 other semivolatile organic chemicals.

Adverse Drug Events in U.S. Adult Ambulatory Medical Care

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Urmimala; López, Andrea; Maselli, Judith H; Gonzales, Ralph

2011-01-01

Objective To estimate the incidence of adverse drug events (ADEs) associated with health care visits among U.S. adults across all ambulatory settings. Data Source We analyzed data from two nationally representative probability sample surveys: the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National Hospital and Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. From 2005 to 2007, the presence of an ADE was specifically defined, requested, and recorded in these surveys. Study Design Secondary data analysis. Principal Findings An estimated 13.5 million ADE-related visits occurred between 2005 and 2007 (0.5 percent of all visits), the large majority (72 percent) occurring in outpatient practice settings, and the remaining in emergency departments. Older patients (age ≥65 years) had the highest age-specific ADE rate, 3.8 ADEs per 10,000 persons per year. In adjusted analyses of outpatient visits, there was an increased odds of an ADE-related visit with increased medication burden (odds ratio [OR] for six to eight medications compared with no medications, OR 3.83 [2.20, 6.65]), and increased odds of ADEs associated with primary care visits compared with specialty visits (OR 2.22 [1.70, 2.89]). Conclusions Approximately 4.5 million ambulatory visits related to ADEs occur each year, the majority of these in outpatient office practices. A greater focus on ADE prevention and detection is warranted among patients receiving multiple medications in primary care practices. PMID:21554271

A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holik, Federico, E-mail: olentiev2@gmail.com; Departamento de Matemática - Ciclo Básico Común, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabellón III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires; Sáenz, Manuel

We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivationmore » of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.« less

Target intersection probabilities for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCammon, R.B.

1977-01-01

The expressions for calculating the probability of intersection of hidden targets of different sizes and shapes for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search can be formulated by vsing the concept of conditional probability. When the prior probability of the orientation of a widden target is represented by a uniform distribution, the calculated posterior probabilities are identical with the results obtained by the classic methods of probability. For hidden targets of different sizes and shapes, the following generalizations about the probability of intersection can be made: (1) to a first approximation, the probability of intersection of a hidden target is proportional to the ratio of the greatest dimension of the target (viewed in plane projection) to the minimum line spacing of the search pattern; (2) the shape of the hidden target does not greatly affect the probability of the intersection when the largest dimension of the target is small relative to the minimum spacing of the search pattern, (3) the probability of intersecting a target twice for a particular type of search can be used as a lower bound if there is an element of uncertainty of detection for a particular type of tool; (4) the geometry of the search pattern becomes more critical when the largest dimension of the target equals or exceeds the minimum spacing of the search pattern; (5) for elongate targets, the probability of intersection is greater for parallel-line search than for an equivalent continuous square-grid search when the largest dimension of the target is less than the minimum spacing of the search pattern, whereas the opposite is true when the largest dimension exceeds the minimum spacing; (6) the probability of intersection for nonorthogonal continuous-grid search patterns is not greatly different from the probability of intersection for the equivalent orthogonal continuous-grid pattern when the orientation of the target is unknown. The probability of intersection for an elliptically shaped target can be approximated by treating the ellipse as intermediate between a circle and a line. A search conducted along a continuous rectangular grid can be represented as intermediate between a search along parallel lines and along a continuous square grid. On this basis, an upper and lower bound for the probability of intersection of an elliptically shaped target for a continuous rectangular grid can be calculated. Charts have been constructed that permit the values for these probabilities to be obtained graphically. The use of conditional probability allows the explorationist greater flexibility in considering alternate search strategies for locating hidden targets. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corp.

Leaf litter copepods from a cloud forest mountain top in Honduras (Copepoda: Cyclopidae, Canthocamptidae).

PubMed

Fiers, Frank; Jocque, Merlijn

2013-01-01

Five different species of Copepoda were extracted from a leaf litter sample collected on the top (at 2000 m a.s.l.) of a cloud forested mountain in El Cusuco National Park, Honduras. Three of them, one Cyclopidae and two Canthocamptidae are new to science, and are described herein. Olmeccyclops hondo sp. nov. is the second representative thus far known of this New World genus. Moraria catracha sp. nov. and Moraria cusuca sp. nov. are the first formally described members of the genus occurring in Central America. The concept of a "Moraria-group" is considered to be an artificial grouping and is limited here to the genera Moraria and Morariopsis only. The distributional range of this group is essentially Holarctic, with the mountainous regions in Honduras, and probably in west Nicaragua, as the southernmost limits in the New World.

A probabilistic analysis of silicon cost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, L. J.

1983-01-01

Silicon materials costs represent both a cost driver and an area where improvement can be made in the manufacture of photovoltaic modules. The cost from three processes for the production of low-cost silicon being developed under the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Photovoltaic Program is analyzed. The approach is based on probabilistic inputs and makes use of two models developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory: SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development) and IPEG (Improved Price Estimating Guidelines). The approach, assumptions, and limitations are detailed along with a verification of the cost analyses methodology. Results, presented in the form of cumulative probability distributions for silicon cost, indicate that there is a 55% chance of reaching the DOE target of $16/kg for silicon material. This is a technically achievable cost based on expert forecasts of the results of ongoing research and development and do not imply any market prices for a given year.

School Progress Among Children of Same-Sex Couples.

PubMed

Watkins, Caleb S

2018-06-01

This study uses logit regressions on a pooled sample of children from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 American Community Survey to perform a nationally representative analysis of school progress for a large sample of 4,430 children who reside with same-sex couples. Odds ratios from regressions that compare children between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to show significant differences in normal school progress between households across a variety of sample compositions. Likewise, marginal effects from regressions that compare children with similar family dynamics between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to predict significantly higher probabilities of grade retention for children of same-sex couples. Significantly lower grade retention rates are sometimes predicted for children of same-sex couples than for different-sex married couples, but these differences are sensitive to sample exclusions and do not indicate causal benefits to same-sex parenting.

After-School and Informal STEM Projects: the Effect of Participant Self-Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallett, David B.; Lamb, Richard; Annetta, Leonard

2017-12-01

This research represents an unforeseen outcome of the authors' National Science Foundation Innovation Technology Experiences for Students and Teachers (ITEST) program grant in science education. The grant itself focused on the use of serious educational games (SEGs) in the science classroom, both during and after school, to teach science content and affect student perceptions of science and technology. This study consists of a Bayesian artificial neural network analysis, using the preintervention measures of affect, interest, personality, and cognitive ability, in members of both the treatment and comparison groups to generate the probabilities that students would opt into the treatment group or choose not to participate. It appears, from this sample and the sampling methods of other related studies within the field, that despite sometimes profound results from technology interventions in science, interventions are affecting only those who already have a strong interest in STEM due to the manner in which participants are recruited.

Doubly Disadvantaged? Bullying Experiences among Disabled Children and Young People in England

PubMed Central

Chatzitheochari, Stella; Parsons, Samantha; Platt, Lucinda

2015-01-01

Bullying among school-aged children and adolescents is recognised as an important social problem, and the adverse consequences for victims are well established. However, despite growing interest in the socio-demographic profile of victims, there is limited evidence on the relationship between bullying victimisation and childhood disability. This article enhances our understanding of bullying experiences among disabled children in both early and later childhood, drawing on nationally representative longitudinal data from the Millennium Cohort Study and the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. We model the association of disability measured in two different ways with the probability of being bullied at ages seven and 15, controlling for a wide range of known risk factors that vary with childhood disability. Results reveal an independent association of disability with bullying victimisation, suggesting a potential pathway to cumulative disability-related disadvantage, and drawing attention to the school as a site of reproduction of social inequalities. PMID:27546915

"Unequal opportunity": neighbourhood disadvantage and the chance to buy illegal drugs.

PubMed

Storr, C L; Chen, C-Y; Anthony, J C

2004-03-01

This study investigates whether subgroups of people living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods may be more likely to come into contact with drug dealers as compared with persons living in more advantaged areas, with due attention to male-female and race-ethnicity differences. Standardised survey data collected using stratified, multistage area probability sampling. United States of America, 1998. Nationally representative sample of household residents age 12 or older (n = 25 500). Evidence supports an inference that women are less likely to be approached by someone selling illegal drugs. The study found no more than modest and generally null racial and ethnicity differences, even for residents living within socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods, where chances to buy illegal drugs are found to be more common. Limitations of survey data always merit attention, but this study evidence lends support to the inference that physical and social characteristics of a neighbourhood can set the stage for opportunities to become involved with drugs.

Doubly Disadvantaged? Bullying Experiences among Disabled Children and Young People in England.

PubMed

Chatzitheochari, Stella; Parsons, Samantha; Platt, Lucinda

2016-08-01

Bullying among school-aged children and adolescents is recognised as an important social problem, and the adverse consequences for victims are well established. However, despite growing interest in the socio-demographic profile of victims, there is limited evidence on the relationship between bullying victimisation and childhood disability. This article enhances our understanding of bullying experiences among disabled children in both early and later childhood, drawing on nationally representative longitudinal data from the Millennium Cohort Study and the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. We model the association of disability measured in two different ways with the probability of being bullied at ages seven and 15, controlling for a wide range of known risk factors that vary with childhood disability. Results reveal an independent association of disability with bullying victimisation, suggesting a potential pathway to cumulative disability-related disadvantage, and drawing attention to the school as a site of reproduction of social inequalities.

Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability".

PubMed

Grossi, Enzo

2005-09-27

The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects.

Multistage variable probability forest volume inventory. [the Defiance Unit of the Navajo Nation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. E. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

An inventory scheme based on the use of computer processed LANDSAT MSS data was developed. Output from the inventory scheme provides an estimate of the standing net saw timber volume of a major timber species on a selected forested area of the Navajo Nation. Such estimates are based on the values of parameters currently used for scaled sawlog conversion to mill output. The multistage variable probability sampling appears capable of producing estimates which compare favorably with those produced using conventional techniques. In addition, the reduction in time, manpower, and overall costs lend it to numerous applications.

A Probabilistic Model of Illegal Drug Trafficking Operations in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

partner agencies and nations, detects, tracks, and interdicts illegal drug-trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based...trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based on intelligence inputs to generate a spatial temporal heat map specifying the...complement and vet such complicated simulation by developing more analytically tractable models. We develop probability models to generate a heat map

Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaMotte, A.E.; Greene, E.A.

2007-01-01

Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Commission on the National Guard and Reserves: Transforming the National Guard and Reserves into a 21st-Century Operational Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-31

13DecForesmanCNGRTestimonyFINAL%5B1%5D.pdf), p. 3. Representatives Skelton and Taylor at March 2006 hearing. COMMISSION ON THE NATIONAL GUARD AND RESERVES 57 CREATING...Anniversary,” CMH Pub 72-32 (U.S. Army Center of Military History, 1995), available at www.army.mil/cmh-pg/documents/mobpam.htm. 8 Abbott A. Brayton ...Services Committee Representative Gene Taylor , Co-Chair, House National Guard and Reserve Components Caucus Representative Steve Buyer, Co-Chair, House

Aquifer-test evaluation and potential effects of increased ground-water pumpage at the Stovepipe Wells Hotel area, Death Valley National Monument, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, L.R.; Martin, Peter; Baharie, Brian

1988-01-01

Ground-water use in the Stovepipe Wells Hotel area in Death Valley National Monument is expected to increase significantly if the nonpotable, as well as potable, water supply is treated by reverse osmosis. During the peak tourist season, October through March, ground-water pumpage could increase by 37,500 gallons per day, or 76%. The effects of this additional pumpage on water levels in the area, particularly near a strand of phreatophytes about 10,000 feet east of the well field, are of concern. In order to evaluate the effects of increased pumpage on water levels in the Stovepipe Wells Hotel area well field, two aquifer tests were performed at the well field to determine the transmissivity and storage coefficients of the aquifer. Analysis of the aquifer test determined that a transmissivity of 1,360 feet squared per day was representative of the aquifer. The estimated value of transmissivity and the storage-coefficient values that are representative of confined (1.2 x .0004) and unconfined (0.25) conditions were used in the Theis equation to calculate the additional drawdown that might occur after 1, 10, and 50 years of increased pumpage. The drawdown calculated by using the lower storage-coefficient value represents the maximum additional drawdown that might be expected from the assumed increase in pumpage; the drawdown calculated by using the higher storage-coefficient value represents the minimum additional drawdown. Calculated additional drawdowns after 50 years of pumping range from 7.8 feet near the pumped well to 2.4 feet at the phreatophyte stand assuming confined conditions, and from 5.7 feet near the pumped well to 0.3 foot at the phreatophyte stand assuming unconfined conditions. Actual drawdowns probably will be somewhere between these values. Drawdowns measured in observation wells during 1973-85, in response to an average pumpage of 34,200 gallons per day at the Stovepipe Wells Hotel well field, are similar to the drawdowns calculated by the Theis equation for the assumed increase in pumpage. (Author 's abstract)

Growth parameters of Penicillium expansum calculated from mixed inocula as an alternative to account for intraspecies variability.

PubMed

Garcia, Daiana; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, Vicente; Marín, Sonia

2014-09-01

The aim of this work was to compare the radial growth rate (μ) and the lag time (λ) for growth of 25 isolates of Penicillium expansum at 1 and 20 ºC with those of the mixed inoculum of the 25 isolates. Moreover, the evolution of probability of growth through time was also compared for the single strains and mixed inoculum. Working with a mixed inoculum would require less work, time and consumables than if a range of single strains has to be used in order to represent a given species. Suitable predictive models developed for a given species should represent as much as possible the behavior of all strains belonging to this species. The results suggested, on one hand, that the predictions based on growth parameters calculated on the basis of mixed inocula may not accurately predict the behavior of all possible strains but may represent a percentage of them, and the median/mean values of μ and λ obtained by the 25 strains may be substituted by the value obtained with the mixed inoculum. Moreover, the predictions may be biased, in particular, the predictions of λ which may be underestimated (fail-safe). Moreover, the prediction of time for a given probability of growth through a mixed inoculum may not be accurate for all single inocula, but it may represent 92% and 60% of them at 20 and 1 ºC, respectively, and also their overall mean and median values. In conclusion, mixed inoculum could be a good alternative to estimate the mean or median values of high number of isolates, but not to account for those strains with marginal behavior. In particular, estimation of radial growth rate, and time for 0.10 and 0.50 probability of growth using a cocktail inoculum accounted for the estimates of most single isolates tested. For the particular case of probability models, this is an interesting result as for practical applications in the food industry the estimation of t10 or lower probability may be required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quality-Based Analysis Capability for National Youth Surveys: Development, Application, and Implications for Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orvis, Bruce R.; Gahart, Martin T.

As part of the military recruiting effort, the Department of Defense sponsors surveys of the national youth population to help design recruiting and advertising strategies. This report develops and applies a method of using the information contained in national youth surveys to estimate the probability that respondents taking the Armed Forces…

Current Distributional Information on Freshwater Mussels (family Unionidae) in Mississippi National Forests

Treesearch

Wendell R. Haag; Melvin L. Warren

1995-01-01

Little is known about the distribution of freshwater mussels in Mississippi national forests. Review of the scant available information revealed that the national forests harbor a diverse mussel fauna of possibly 46 or more species (including confirmed, probable, and potential occurrences). Occurrence of 33 species is confirmed. Because of the geographic, physiographic...

The Effects of Pubertal Timing on Body Image, School Behavior, and Deviance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Paula Duke; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the National Health Examination Survey, a national probability sample of children and youth aged 12-17, was used to investigate the relationships between maturational timing and body image, school behavior, and deviance. (Author/LMO)

A Longitudinal Study of Welfare Exit among American Indian Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pandey, Shanta; Guo, Baorong

2007-01-01

Data from a longitudinal survey of families from three reservations (Navajo Nation, San Carlos, and Salt River) in Arizona were used to examine their probability of welfare use. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effects of individual, family, and structural factors on welfare exit. Results indicate that their probability of…

42 CFR 81.6 - Use of radiation dose information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Use of radiation dose information. 81.6 Section 81... Probability of Causation § 81.6 Use of radiation dose information. Determining probability of causation will require the use of radiation dose information provided to DOL by the National Institute for Occupational...

42 CFR 81.6 - Use of radiation dose information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Use of radiation dose information. 81.6 Section 81... Probability of Causation § 81.6 Use of radiation dose information. Determining probability of causation will require the use of radiation dose information provided to DOL by the National Institute for Occupational...

42 CFR 81.6 - Use of radiation dose information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Use of radiation dose information. 81.6 Section 81... Probability of Causation § 81.6 Use of radiation dose information. Determining probability of causation will require the use of radiation dose information provided to DOL by the National Institute for Occupational...

42 CFR 81.6 - Use of radiation dose information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Use of radiation dose information. 81.6 Section 81... Probability of Causation § 81.6 Use of radiation dose information. Determining probability of causation will require the use of radiation dose information provided to DOL by the National Institute for Occupational...

Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Robert J.

1997-01-01

Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

Investigation of Probability Distributions Using Dice Rolling Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lukac, Stanislav; Engel, Radovan

2010-01-01

Dice are considered one of the oldest gambling devices and thus many mathematicians have been interested in various dice gambling games in the past. Dice have been used to teach probability, and dice rolls can be effectively simulated using technology. The National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) recommends that teachers use simulations…

The fuzzy cube and causal efficacy: representation of concomitant mechanisms in stroke.

PubMed

Jobe, Thomas H.; Helgason, Cathy M.

1998-04-01

Twentieth century medical science has embraced nineteenth century Boolean probability theory based upon two-valued Aristotelian logic. With the later addition of bit-based, von Neumann structured computational architectures, an epistemology based on randomness has led to a bivalent epidemiological methodology that dominates medical decision making. In contrast, fuzzy logic, based on twentieth century multi-valued logic, and computational structures that are content addressed and adaptively modified, has advanced a new scientific paradigm for the twenty-first century. Diseases such as stroke involve multiple concomitant causal factors that are difficult to represent using conventional statistical methods. We tested which paradigm best represented this complex multi-causal clinical phenomenon-stroke. We show that the fuzzy logic paradigm better represented clinical complexity in cerebrovascular disease than current probability theory based methodology. We believe this finding is generalizable to all of clinical science since multiple concomitant causal factors are involved in nearly all known pathological processes.

Insights into the availability and distribution of oral artemisinin monotherapy in Myanmar: evidence from a nationally representative outlet survey.

PubMed

Thein, Si Thu; Khin, Hnin Su Su; Thi, Aung

2017-04-25

The containment of artemisinin resistance in Myanmar, historically an important probable origin and route of anti-malarial resistance to the India sub-continent and beyond, is crucial to global malaria control and elimination. This paper describes what is currently known about the sale and distribution of oral artemisinin monotherapy (AMT) across Myanmar, where this medicine is commonly found. A nationally representative 2015 outlet survey was conducted in the private sector, and among community health workers across four geographical domains. A national sample of outlets was screened for availability of malaria testing and treatment, and an audit was completed for all anti-malarials. A total of 3859 outlets across Myanmar had an anti-malarial in stock on the day of survey. Of the 3859 anti-malarial stocking outlets, 988 outlets stocked oral AMT. Availability of oral AMT was highest among outlets in the Western border (36.8%) versus other domains (Eastern, 15.0%; Central, 19.3% Coastal, 10.7%). Over 90% of the oral AMT service delivery points were private sector outlets: general retailers (49.4%), pharmacies (23.5%), and itinerant drug vendors (14.2%). Eleven unique oral AMT products were audited. The most common product audited was Artesunate ® , manufactured by Mediplantex in Vietnam, which accounted for 79.9% of the oral AMT market share. Other oral AMT products were manufactured in China and in Myanmar. Over 60% of oral AMT products had a shelf life at purchase of greater than 2 years and only 14.7% were expired. The median number of oral AMT tablets typically dispensed to treat malaria was two tablets, approximately one tenth of a full adult course. The median price of a 50 mg tablet was $0.16. Given the high availability and distribution of oral AMT, it is possible that Myanmar has become the last remaining viable market for any oral AMT in the region for manufacturers. National and international organizations need to act quickly and effectively to stop the production and distribution to both improve malaria control within Myanmar and reduce risk of artemisinin resistance spreading to India and Africa.

[Epidemiology of emotional and behavioral problems in children and adolescents reared in orphanages: a national comparative study].

PubMed

Simşek, Zeynep; Erol, Neşe; Oztop, Didem; Ozer Ozcan, Ozlem

2008-01-01

We examined the prevalence of emotional and behavioral problems, and associated factors in children and adolescents aged 6-18 years that were reared in orphanages. We aimed to compare these children and adolescents with a nationally representative age-matched sample that were raised by their own families and to identify mental health service needs in orphanages. This cross-sectional study included 674 children and adolescents aged 6-18 years that were selected from orphanages using stratified and probability cluster sampling. A socio-demographic information form, and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), Teacher's Report Form (TRF), and Youth Self-Report Form (YSR) were used for data collection. According to the information provided by caregivers, teachers, and youths, the prevalence of problem behaviors ranged between 18.3% and 47% among those in institutional care versus between 9% and 11% among the national sample. Among those in institutional care, the prevalence of externalizing problems (21.4%-41.9%) was significantly higher than the prevalence of internalizing problems (6.2%-40.1%). At the syndrome level, the prevalence of social problems (5.7%-11.7%), thought disorders (7.2%-18.4%), and attention problems (7.7%-31.4%) among the youths in institutional care was higher than among the national sample (1.6%-5.8%). Age at first admission, receiving institutional care because of neglect and abuse, moves 2 or more times between institutions, recurrent physical illness, receiving poor quality care, lack of regular contact with parents or relatives, lack of regular contact with teachers and the institutional staff, poor problem-solving skills, fatalistic beliefs, tobacco and alcohol use, the feeling of stigmatization, and low-level competency were significantly associated with an increased risk of behavioral and emotional problems. In this representative study, only 2.4% of the children received any mental health care services. There is an urgent need to develop alternative care models and routine screening for mental health. The training of professionals and development of mental health services for children in institutional care should be a priority.

Analytic method for evaluating players' decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper.

PubMed

Lamas, Leonardo; Drezner, Rene; Otranto, Guilherme; Barrera, Junior

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to define a method for evaluating a player's decisions during a game based on the success probability of his actions and for analyzing the player strategy inferred from game actions. There were developed formal definitions of i) the stochastic process of player decisions in game situations and ii) the inference process of player strategy based on his game decisions. The method was applied to the context of soccer goalkeepers. A model of goalkeeper positioning, with geometric parameters and solutions to optimize his position based on the ball position and trajectory, was developed. The model was tested with a sample of 65 professional goalkeepers (28.8 ± 4.1 years old) playing for their national teams in 2010 and 2014 World Cups. The goalkeeper's decisions were compared to decisions from a large dataset of other goalkeepers, defining the probability of success in each game circumstance. There were assessed i) performance in a defined set of classes of game plays; ii) entropy of goalkeepers' decisions; and iii) the effect of goalkeepers' positioning updates on the outcome (save or goal). Goalkeepers' decisions were similar to the ones with the lowest probability of goal on the dataset. Goalkeepers' entropy varied between 24% and 71% of the maximum possible entropy. Positioning dynamics in the instants that preceded the shot indicated that, in goals and saves, goalkeepers optimized their position before the shot in 21.87% and 83.33% of the situations, respectively. These results validate a method to discriminate successful performance. In conclusion, this method enables a more precise assessment of a player's decision-making ability by consulting a representative dataset of equivalent actions to define the probability of his success. Therefore, it supports the evaluation of the player's decision separately from his technical skill execution, which overcomes the scientific challenge of discriminating the evaluation of a player's decision performance from the action result.

Comparative effectiveness of upfront esophagectomy versus induction chemoradiation in clinical stage T2N0 esophageal cancer: A decision analysis.

PubMed

Semenkovich, Tara R; Panni, Roheena Z; Hudson, Jessica L; Thomas, Theodore; Elmore, Leisha C; Chang, Su-Hsin; Meyers, Bryan F; Kozower, Benjamin D; Puri, Varun

2018-05-01

We compared the effectiveness of upfront esophagectomy versus induction chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy for overall survival in patients with clinical T2N0 (cT2N0) esophageal cancer. We also assessed the influence of the diagnostic uncertainty of endoscopic ultrasound on the expected benefit of chemoradiation. We created a decision analysis model representing 2 treatment strategies for cT2N0 esophageal cancer: upfront esophagectomy that may be followed by adjuvant therapy for upstaged patients and induction chemoradiation for all patients with cT2N0 esophageal cancer followed by esophagectomy. Parameter values within the model were obtained from published data, and median survival for pathologic subgroups was derived from the National Cancer Database. In sensitivity analyses, staging uncertainty of endoscopic ultrasound was introduced by varying the probability of pathologic upstaging. The baseline model showed comparable median survival for both strategies: 48.3 months for upfront esophagectomy versus 45.9 months for induction chemoradiation and surgery. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated induction chemoradiation was beneficial, with probability of upstaging > 48.1%, which is within the published range of 32% to 65% probability of pathologic upstaging after cT2N0 diagnosis. The presence of any of 3 key variables (size larger than 3 cm, high grade, or lymphovascular invasion) was associated with > 48.1% risk of upstaging, thus conferring a survival advantage to induction chemoradiation. The optimal treatment strategy for cT2N0 esophageal cancer depends on the accuracy of endoscopic ultrasound staging. High-risk features that confer increased probability of upstaging can inform clinical decision making to recommend induction chemoradiation for select cT2N0 patients. Copyright © 2018 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Analytic method for evaluating players’ decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper

PubMed Central

Drezner, Rene; Otranto, Guilherme; Barrera, Junior

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to define a method for evaluating a player’s decisions during a game based on the success probability of his actions and for analyzing the player strategy inferred from game actions. There were developed formal definitions of i) the stochastic process of player decisions in game situations and ii) the inference process of player strategy based on his game decisions. The method was applied to the context of soccer goalkeepers. A model of goalkeeper positioning, with geometric parameters and solutions to optimize his position based on the ball position and trajectory, was developed. The model was tested with a sample of 65 professional goalkeepers (28.8 ± 4.1 years old) playing for their national teams in 2010 and 2014 World Cups. The goalkeeper’s decisions were compared to decisions from a large dataset of other goalkeepers, defining the probability of success in each game circumstance. There were assessed i) performance in a defined set of classes of game plays; ii) entropy of goalkeepers’ decisions; and iii) the effect of goalkeepers’ positioning updates on the outcome (save or goal). Goalkeepers’ decisions were similar to the ones with the lowest probability of goal on the dataset. Goalkeepers’ entropy varied between 24% and 71% of the maximum possible entropy. Positioning dynamics in the instants that preceded the shot indicated that, in goals and saves, goalkeepers optimized their position before the shot in 21.87% and 83.33% of the situations, respectively. These results validate a method to discriminate successful performance. In conclusion, this method enables a more precise assessment of a player’s decision-making ability by consulting a representative dataset of equivalent actions to define the probability of his success. Therefore, it supports the evaluation of the player’s decision separately from his technical skill execution, which overcomes the scientific challenge of discriminating the evaluation of a player’s decision performance from the action result. PMID:29408923

Grade Retention in Primary Education Is Associated with Quarter of Birth and Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

González-Betancor, Sara M; López-Puig, Alexis J

2016-01-01

Grade retention is still common practice in some countries though longstanding experience tells us that it is a highly criticised practice for its unclear benefits, its important costs for the educational systems and its relation with school dropout. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to analyse which variables increase the probability of being retained in primary education differentiating between being retained in second or in fourth grade, and paying special attention to the role of the socioeconomic status of the families. By knowing which analysed variables are related to grade retention, and how, we may offer some suggestions to reduce it. We use a national dataset with more observations for Spain than any other international ones, called 'Evaluación General de Diagnóstico', conducted in Spain in 2009 with the participation of 28708 students of fourth grade of primary education from 874 schools, considered to be representative for every Spanish autonomous region. This assessment focused on four competences and includes information about the learning context collected through questionnaires for students, families, school management and teachers. Estimating different multilevel random-intercept logistic regressions we obtain the following three main findings: 1) the existence of a 'quarter of birth' effect, that nearly doubles the probability of grade retention in second grade of primary -compared to the probability of grade retention in fourth grade-, for the youngest students of their same age cohort (OR = 1.93 vs. OR = 1.53, both p<0.001); 2) that the mothers' education level influences more than the fathers' one -especially in second grade (OR = 0.20 vs. OR = 0.45, both p<0.001)-; and 3) that having an unemployed father increases the probability of grade retention much more than having an unemployed mother -especially in second grade (OR = 1.48, p<0.005 vs. OR = 1.18, p>0.05)-.

Grade Retention in Primary Education Is Associated with Quarter of Birth and Socioeconomic Status

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Grade retention is still common practice in some countries though longstanding experience tells us that it is a highly criticised practice for its unclear benefits, its important costs for the educational systems and its relation with school dropout. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to analyse which variables increase the probability of being retained in primary education differentiating between being retained in second or in fourth grade, and paying special attention to the role of the socioeconomic status of the families. By knowing which analysed variables are related to grade retention, and how, we may offer some suggestions to reduce it. We use a national dataset with more observations for Spain than any other international ones, called ‘Evaluación General de Diagnóstico’, conducted in Spain in 2009 with the participation of 28708 students of fourth grade of primary education from 874 schools, considered to be representative for every Spanish autonomous region. This assessment focused on four competences and includes information about the learning context collected through questionnaires for students, families, school management and teachers. Estimating different multilevel random-intercept logistic regressions we obtain the following three main findings: 1) the existence of a ‘quarter of birth’ effect, that nearly doubles the probability of grade retention in second grade of primary –compared to the probability of grade retention in fourth grade–, for the youngest students of their same age cohort (OR = 1.93 vs. OR = 1.53, both p<0.001); 2) that the mothers’ education level influences more than the fathers’ one –especially in second grade (OR = 0.20 vs. OR = 0.45, both p<0.001)–; and 3) that having an unemployed father increases the probability of grade retention much more than having an unemployed mother –especially in second grade (OR = 1.48, p<0.005 vs. OR = 1.18, p>0.05)–. PMID:27851779

The Association between Social Media Use and Eating Concerns among US Young Adults.

PubMed

Sidani, Jaime E; Shensa, Ariel; Hoffman, Beth; Hanmer, Janel; Primack, Brian A

2016-09-01

The etiology of eating concerns is multifactorial, and exposure to media messages is considered to be a contributor. Although traditional media, such as television and magazines, have been examined extensively in relation to eating concerns risk, the influence of social media has received relatively less attention. To examine the association between social media use and eating concerns in a large, nationally representative sample of young adults. Cross-sectional survey. Participants were 1,765 young adults aged 19 to 32 years who were randomly selected from a national probability-based online nonvolunteer panel. An eating concerns scale was adapted from two validated measures: the SCOFF Questionnaire and the Eating Disorder Screen for Primary Care. Social media use (including Facebook, Twitter, Google+, YouTube, LinkedIn, Instagram, Pinterest, Tumblr, Vine, Snapchat, and Reddit) was assessed using both volume (time per day) and frequency (visits per week). To examine associations between eating concerns and social media use, ordered logistic regression was used, controlling for all covariates. Compared with those in the lowest quartile, participants in the highest quartiles for social media volume and frequency had significantly greater odds of having eating concerns (adjusted odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.50 to 3.17 and adjusted odds ratio 2.55, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.78, respectively). There were significant positive overall linear associations between the social media use variables and eating concerns (P<0.001). The results from this study indicate a strong and consistent association between social media use and eating concerns in a nationally representative sample of young adults aged 19 to 32 years. This association was apparent whether social media use was measured as volume or frequency. Further research should assess the temporality of these associations. It would also be useful to examine more closely the influence of specific characteristics of social media use, including content-related and contextual features. Copyright © 2016 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Association between Social Media Use and Eating Concerns among U.S. Young Adults

PubMed Central

Sidani, Jaime E.; Shensa, Ariel; Hoffman, Beth; Hanmer, Janel; Primack, Brian A.

2016-01-01

Background Although the etiology of eating concerns is multi-factorial, exposure to media messages is considered to be a contributor. While traditional media, such as television and magazines, have been examined extensively in relation to eating concerns risk, the influence of social media has received relatively less attention. Objective To examine the association between social media use and eating concerns in a large, nationally representative sample of young adults. Design Cross-sectional survey. Participants/setting Participants were 1765 young adults ages 19-32 years, who were randomly selected from a national probability-based online non-volunteer panel. Outcome measures An eating concerns scale was adapted from two validated measures: the SCOFF Questionnaire and the Eating Disorder Screen for Primary Care (ESP). Social media use (including Facebook, Twitter, Google+, YouTube, LinkedIn, Instagram, Pinterest, Tumblr, Vine, Snapchat, and Reddit) was assessed using both volume (time per day) and frequency (visits per week). Statistical analyses To examine associations between eating concerns and social media use, ordered logistic regression was used, controlling for all covariates. Results Compared to those in the lowest quartile, participants in the highest quartiles for social media volume and frequency had significantly greater odds of having eating concerns (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.50 - 3.17 and AOR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.72 - 3.78, respectively). There were significant positive overall linear associations between the social media use variables and eating concerns (P < 0.001). Conclusions The results from this study indicate a strong and consistent association between social media use and eating concerns in a nationally-representative sample of young adults ages 19 to 32 years. This association was apparent whether social media use was measured as volume or frequency. Further research should assess the temporality of these associations. It would also be useful to examine more closely the influence of specific characteristics of social media use—including content-related and contextual features. PMID:27161027

Men's use and perceptions of commercial lubricants: prevalence and characteristics in a nationally representative sample of American adults.

PubMed

Reece, Michael; Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2014-05-01

Most research on men's use of commercial lubricants during sexual activities is in the context of condom use and often specifically among men who have sex with men. Less is known about men's use of lubricants associated with a broader range of sexual experiences. The aims of this study are to document the prevalence of commercial lubricant use among adult U.S. men (age 18+), to document men's use of lubricants across solo and partnered sexual behaviors, and to assess men's perceptions of the contributions lubricants have to the sexual experience. Data are from the 2012 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, which involved the administration of an online questionnaire to a nationally representative probability sample of U.S. adults ages 18 and older. Sociodemographic characteristics, recent and lifetime commercial lubricant use, lubricant use during specific sexual behaviors, frequency of lubricant use, and reasons for lubricant use. Most men in the United States (70%, N = 1,014) reported having used a commercial lubricant, with men older than 24 and those in a relationship more likely to report lubricant use. About one in four men had used a lubricant in the past 30 days. Intercourse was the most common behavior during which men used lubricant, though solo masturbation and partnered sexual play were also frequently linked to lubricant use. The most common reasons for lubricant use included "to make sex more comfortable," "for fun," "curiosity," and "my partner wanted to." Most American men have used a lubricant; lubricant use is common across all age groups, and some of the most common reasons why men report using lubricants have to do with sexual enhancement, comfort, and pleasure. Clinicians may find these data helpful to their efforts to educate patients about lubricant use, comfort during sex, and sexual enhancement. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

On the origin of brucellosis in bison of Yellowstone National Park: a review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meagher, Mary; Meyer, Margaret E.

1994-01-01

Brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus occurs in the free-ranging bison (Bison bison) of Yellowstone and Wood Buffalo National Parks and in elk (Cervus elaphus) of the Greater Yellowstone Area. As a result of nationwide bovine brucellosis eradication programs, states and provinces proximate to the national parks are considered free of bovine brucellosis. Thus, increased attention has been focused on the wildlife within these areas as potential reservoirs for transmission to cattle. Because the national parks are mandated as natural areas, the question has been raised as to whether Brucella abortus is endogenous or exogenous to bison, particularly for Yellowstone National Park. We synthesized diverse lines of inquiry, including the evolutionary history of both bison and Brucella, wild animals as Brucella hosts, biochemical and genetic information, behavioral characteristics of host and organism, and area history to develop an evaluation of the question for the National Park Service. All lines of inquiry indicated that the organism was introduced to North America with cattle, and that the introduction into the Yellowstone bison probably was directly from cattle shortly before 1917. Fistulous withers of horses was a less likely possibility. Elk on winter feedgrounds south of Yellowstone National Park apparently acquired the disease directly from cattle. Bison presently using Grand Teton National Park probably acquired brucellosis from feedground elk.

Two-Way Tables: Issues at the Heart of Statistics and Probability for Students and Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane; Callingham, Rosemary

2014-01-01

Some problems exist at the intersection of statistics and probability, creating a dilemma in relation to the best approach to assist student understanding. Such is the case with problems presented in two-way tables representing conditional information. The difficulty can be confounded if the context within which the problem is set is one where…

The dynamics of condom use with regular and casual partners: analysis of the 2006 National Sexual Behavior Survey of Thailand.

PubMed

Chamratrithirong, Aphichat; Kaiser, Paulina

2012-01-01

This study aims to determine factors associated with levels of condom use among heterosexual Thai males in sex with regular partners and in sex with casual partners. The data used in this study are from the national probability sample of the 2006 National Sexual Behavior Study, the third nationally representative cross-sectional survey in Thailand. A subtotal of 2,281 men were analyzed in the study, including young (18-24) and older (25-59) adults who were residents of rural areas of Thailand, non-Bangkok urban areas, and Bangkok. Two outcomes of interest for this analysis are reported condom use in the past 12 months by males in relationships with the most recent regular and casual partners who were not sex workers. Chi-square statistics, bivariate regressions and the proportional odds regression models are used in the analysis. Condom use for men with their regular partner is revealed to be positively related to education, knowledge of condom effectiveness, and pro-condom strategy, and negatively related to non-professional employment, status of registered marriage, and short relationship duration. Condom use with casual partner is positively determined by education, condom knowledge, non-professional occupation, short relationship duration, and lack of history of paid sex. The national survey emphasized the importance of risk perceptions and condom motivations variables in explaining condom use among men in Thailand. These factors include not only education and knowledge of condom effectiveness and pro-condom strategy but also types of partners and their relationship context and characteristics. Program intervention to promote condom use in Thailand in this new era of predominant casual sex rather than sex with sex workers has to take into account more dynamic partner-based strategies than in the past history of the epidemics in Thailand.

Trends in physician referrals in the United States, 1999-2009.

PubMed

Barnett, Michael L; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E

2012-01-23

Physician referrals play a central role in ambulatory care in the United States; however, little is known about national trends in physician referrals over time. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the annual rate of referrals to other physicians from physician office visits in the United States from 1999 to 2009. We analyzed nationally representative cross-sections of ambulatory patient visits in the United States, using a sample of 845 243 visits from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey from 1993 to 2009, focusing on the decade from 1999 to 2009. The main outcome measures were survey-weighted estimates of the total number and percentage of visits resulting in a referral to another physician across several patient and physician characteristics. From 1999 to 2009, the probability that an ambulatory visit to a physician resulted in a referral to another physician increased from 4.8% to 9.3% (P < .001), a 94% increase. The absolute number of visits resulting in a physician referral increased 159% nationally during this time, from 41 million to 105 million. This trend was consistent across all subgroups examined, except for slower growth among physicians with ownership stakes in their practice (P = .02) or those with the majority of income from managed care contracts (P = .007). Changes in referral rates varied according to the principal symptoms accounting for patients' visits, with significant increases noted for visits to primary care physicians from patients with cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, orthopedic, dermatologic, and ear/nose/throat symptoms. The percentage and absolute number of ambulatory visits resulting in a referral in the United States grew substantially from 1999 to 2009. More research is necessary to understand the contribution of rising referral rates to costs of care.

Fusion of Scores in a Detection Context Based on Alpha Integration.

PubMed

Soriano, Antonio; Vergara, Luis; Ahmed, Bouziane; Salazar, Addisson

2015-09-01

We present a new method for fusing scores corresponding to different detectors (two-hypotheses case). It is based on alpha integration, which we have adapted to the detection context. Three optimization methods are presented: least mean square error, maximization of the area under the ROC curve, and minimization of the probability of error. Gradient algorithms are proposed for the three methods. Different experiments with simulated and real data are included. Simulated data consider the two-detector case to illustrate the factors influencing alpha integration and demonstrate the improvements obtained by score fusion with respect to individual detector performance. Two real data cases have been considered. In the first, multimodal biometric data have been processed. This case is representative of scenarios in which the probability of detection is to be maximized for a given probability of false alarm. The second case is the automatic analysis of electroencephalogram and electrocardiogram records with the aim of reproducing the medical expert detections of arousal during sleeping. This case is representative of scenarios in which probability of error is to be minimized. The general superior performance of alpha integration verifies the interest of optimizing the fusing parameters.

Taxonomic classification of world map units in crop producing areas of Argentina and Brazil with representative US soil series and major land resource areas in which they occur

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huckle, H. F. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The most probable current U.S. taxonomic classification of the soils estimated to dominate world soil map units (WSM)) in selected crop producing states of Argentina and Brazil are presented. Representative U.S. soil series the units are given. The map units occurring in each state are listed with areal extent and major U.S. land resource areas in which similar soils most probably occur. Soil series sampled in LARS Technical Report 111579 and major land resource areas in which they occur with corresponding similar WSM units at the taxonomic subgroup levels are given.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Maps showing predicted probabilities for selected dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese threshold events in depth zones used by the domestic and public drinking water supply wells, Central Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2018-01-31

The purpose of the prediction grids for selected redox constituents—dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese—are intended to provide an understanding of groundwater-quality conditions at the domestic and public-supply drinking water depths. The chemical quality of groundwater and the fate of many contaminants is influenced by redox processes in all aquifers, and understanding the redox conditions horizontally and vertically is critical in evaluating groundwater quality. The redox condition of groundwater—whether oxic (oxygen present) or anoxic (oxygen absent)—strongly influences the oxidation state of a chemical in groundwater. The anoxic dissolved oxygen thresholds of <0.5 milligram per liter (mg/L), <1.0 mg/L, and <2.0 mg/L were selected to apply broadly to regional groundwater-quality investigations. Although the presence of dissolved manganese in groundwater indicates strongly reducing (anoxic) groundwater conditions, it is also considered a “nuisance” constituent in drinking water, making drinking water undesirable with respect to taste, staining, or scaling. Three dissolved manganese thresholds, <50 micrograms per liter (µg/L), <150 µg/L, and <300 µg/L, were selected to create predicted probabilities of exceedances in depth zones used by domestic and public-supply water wells. The 50 µg/L event threshold represents the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) benchmark for manganese (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2017; California Division of Drinking Water, 2014), whereas the 300 µg/L event threshold represents the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) health-based screening level (HBSL) benchmark, used to put measured concentrations of drinking-water contaminants into a human-health context (Toccalino and others, 2014). The 150 µg/L event threshold represents one-half the USGS HBSL. The resultant dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese prediction grids may be of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Prediction grids for selected redox constituents and thresholds were created by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) modeling and mapping team.

7 CFR 1221.100 - Establishment and representation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... allow representation from a broad geographical area. The Board shall initially be composed of 13... 4 sorghum producers to serve as at-large national representatives with at least two representatives... State, there shall be one importer to serve as a representative plus an additional at-large national...

7 CFR 1221.100 - Establishment and representation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... allow representation from a broad geographical area. The Board shall initially be composed of 13... 4 sorghum producers to serve as at-large national representatives with at least two representatives... State, there shall be one importer to serve as a representative plus an additional at-large national...

7 CFR 1221.100 - Establishment and representation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... allow representation from a broad geographical area. The Board shall initially be composed of 13... 4 sorghum producers to serve as at-large national representatives with at least two representatives... State, there shall be one importer to serve as a representative plus an additional at-large national...

7 CFR 1221.100 - Establishment and representation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... allow representation from a broad geographical area. The Board shall initially be composed of 13... 4 sorghum producers to serve as at-large national representatives with at least two representatives... State, there shall be one importer to serve as a representative plus an additional at-large national...

National Space Council Meeting

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-10-05

Acting NASA Administrator Robert Lightfoot, center, along with Deputy Chief Technology Officer of the United States Michael Kratsios, left, and Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats, right, listen to remarks by panelists during the National Space Council's first meeting, Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly, Va. The National Space Council, chaired by Vice President Mike Pence heard testimony from representatives from civil space, commercial space, and national security space industry representatives. Photo Credit: (NASA/Joel Kowsky)

Converting endangered species categories to probabilities of extinction for phylogenetic conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Mooers, Arne Ø; Faith, Daniel P; Maddison, Wayne P

2008-01-01

Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios. Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists. Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

A discrimination method for the detection of pneumonia using chest radiograph.

PubMed

Noor, Norliza Mohd; Rijal, Omar Mohd; Yunus, Ashari; Abu-Bakar, S A R

2010-03-01

This paper presents a statistical method for the detection of lobar pneumonia when using digitized chest X-ray films. Each region of interest was represented by a vector of wavelet texture measures which is then multiplied by the orthogonal matrix Q(2). The first two elements of the transformed vectors were shown to have a bivariate normal distribution. Misclassification probabilities were estimated using probability ellipsoids and discriminant functions. The result of this study recommends the detection of pneumonia by constructing probability ellipsoids or discriminant function using maximum energy and maximum column sum energy texture measures where misclassification probabilities were less than 0.15. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electronic Health Record Data Versus the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES): A Comparison of Overweight and Obesity Rates.

PubMed

Funk, Luke M; Shan, Ying; Voils, Corrine I; Kloke, John; Hanrahan, Lawrence P

2017-06-01

Estimating population-level obesity rates is important for informing policy and targeting treatment. The current gold standard for obesity measurement in the United States-the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)-samples <0.1% of the population and does not target state-level or health system-level measurement. To assess the feasibility of using body mass index (BMI) data from the electronic health record (EHR) to assess rates of overweight and obesity and compare these rates to national NHANES estimates. Using outpatient data from 42 clinics, we studied 388,762 patients in a large health system with at least 1 primary care visit in 2011-2012. We compared crude and adjusted overweight and obesity rates by age category and ethnicity (white, black, Hispanic, Other) between EHR and NHANES participants. Adjusted overweight (BMI≥25) and obesity rates were calculated by a 2-step process. Step 1 accounted for missing BMI data using inverse probability weighting, whereas step 2 included a poststratification correction to adjust the EHR population to a nationally representative sample. Adjusted rates of obesity (BMI≥30) for EHR patients were 37.3% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 37.1-37.5] compared with 35.1% (95% CI, 32.3-38.1) for NHANES patients. Among the 16 different obesity class, ethnicity, and sex strata that were compared between EHR and NHANES patients, 14 (87.5%) contained similar obesity estimates (ie, overlapping 95% CIs). EHRs may be an ideal tool for identifying and targeting patients with obesity for implementation of public health and/or individual level interventions.

Pragmatic Randomized Trials Without Standard Informed Consent?: A National Survey.

PubMed

Nayak, Rahul K; Wendler, David; Miller, Franklin G; Kim, Scott Y H

2015-09-01

Significant debate surrounds the issue of whether written consent is necessary for pragmatic randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) with low risk. To assess the U.S. public's views on alternatives to written consent for low-risk pragmatic RCTs. National experimental survey (2 × 2 factorial design) examining support for written consent versus general notification or verbal consent in 2 research scenarios. Web-based survey conducted in December 2014. 2130 U.S. adults sampled from a nationally representative, probability-based online panel (response rate, 64.0%). Respondent's recommendation to an ethics review board and personal preference as a potential participant on how to obtain consent or notification in the 2 research scenarios. Most respondents in each of the 4 groups (range, 60.3% to 71.5%) recommended written informed consent, and personal preferences were generally in accord with that advice. Most (78.9%) believed that the pragmatic RCTs did not pose additional risks, but 62.5% of these respondents would still recommend written consent. In contrast, a substantial minority in all groups (28.5% to 39.7%) recommended the alternative option (general notification or verbal consent) over written consent. Framing effects could have affected respondents' attitudes, and nonrespondents may have differed in levels of trust toward research or health care institutions. Most of the public favored written informed consent over the most widely advocated alternatives for low-risk pragmatic RCTs; however, a substantial minority favored general notification or verbal consent. Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences and Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center.

Association between use of marijuana and time to pregnancy in men and women: findings from the National Survey of Family Growth.

PubMed

Kasman, Alex M; Thoma, Marie E; McLain, Alexander C; Eisenberg, Michael L

2018-05-01

To determine if regular use of marijuana has an impact on time to pregnancy. Retrospective review of cross-sectional survey data from male and female respondents aged 15-44 years who participated in the 2002, 2006-2010, and 2011-2015 National Survey of Family Growth. Not applicable. The National Survey of Family Growth is a nationally representative population-based sample derived from stratified multistage area probability sampling of 121 geographic areas in the U.S. Our analytic sample was participants who were actively trying to conceive. Exposure status was based on the respondents' answers regarding their marijuana use in the preceding 12 months. The main outcome was estimated time to pregnancy, which was hypothesized before analysis to be delayed by regular marijuana use. A total of 758 male and 1,076 female participants responded that they were actively trying to conceive. Overall, 16.5% of men reported using any marijuana while attempting to conceive, versus 11.5% of women. The time ratio to pregnancy for never smokers versus daily users of marijuana in men was 1.08 (95% confidence interval 0.79-1.47) and in women 0.92 (0.43-1.95), demonstrating no statistically significant impact of marijuana use on time to pregnancy. Our study suggests that neither marijuana use nor frequency of marijuana use was associated with time to pregnancy for men and women. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Local Chlamydia Incidence and Prevalence Using Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

White, Peter J.

2017-01-01

Background: Understanding patterns of chlamydia prevalence is important for addressing inequalities and planning cost-effective control programs. Population-based surveys are costly; the best data for England come from the Natsal national surveys, which are only available once per decade, and are nationally representative but not powered to compare prevalence in different localities. Prevalence estimates at finer spatial and temporal scales are required. Methods: We present a method for estimating local prevalence by modeling the infection, testing, and treatment processes. Prior probability distributions for parameters describing natural history and treatment-seeking behavior are informed by the literature or calibrated using national prevalence estimates. By combining them with surveillance data on numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses, we obtain estimates of local screening rates, incidence, and prevalence. We illustrate the method by application to data from England. Results: Our estimates of national prevalence by age group agree with the Natsal-3 survey. They could be improved by additional information on the number of diagnosed cases that were asymptomatic. There is substantial local-level variation in prevalence, with more infection in deprived areas. Incidence in each sex is strongly correlated with prevalence in the other. Importantly, we find that positivity (the proportion of tests which were positive) does not provide a reliable proxy for prevalence. Conclusion: This approach provides local chlamydia prevalence estimates from surveillance data, which could inform analyses to identify and understand local prevalence patterns and assess local programs. Estimates could be more accurate if surveillance systems recorded additional information, including on symptoms. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B211. PMID:28306613

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

Design and operation of the national home health aide survey: 2007-2008.

PubMed

Bercovitz, Anita; Moss, Abigail J; Sengupta, Manisha; Harris-Kojetin, Lauren D; Squillace, Marie R; Emily, Rosenoff; Branden, Laura

2010-03-01

This report provides an overview of the National Home Health Aide Survey (NHHAS), the first national probability survey of home health aides. NHHAS was designed to provide national estimates of home health aides who provided assistance in activities of daily living (ADLs) and were directly employed by agencies that provide home health and/or hospice care. This report discusses the need for and objectives of the survey, the design process, the survey methods, and data availability. METHODS NHHAS, a multistage probability sample survey, was conducted as a supplement to the 2007 National Home and Hospice Care Survey (NHHCS). Agencies providing home health and/or hospice care were sampled, and then aides employed by these agencies were sampled and interviewed by telephone. Survey topics included recruitment, training, job history, family life, client relations, work-related injuries, and demographics. NHHAS was virtually identical to the 2004 National Nursing Assistant Survey of certified nursing assistants employed in sampled nursing homes with minor changes to account for differences in workplace environment and responsibilities. RESULTS From September 2007 to April 2008, interviews were completed with 3,416 aides. A public-use data file that contains the interview responses, sampling weights, and design variables is available. The NHHAS overall response rate weighted by the inverse of the probability of selection was 41 percent. This rate is the product of the weighted first-stage agency response rate of 57 percent (i.e., weighted response rate of 59 percent for agency participation in NHHCS times the weighted response rate of 97 percent for agencies participating in NHHCS that also participated in NHHAS) and the weighted second-stage aide response rate of 72 percent to NHHAS.

Speech processing using conditional observable maximum likelihood continuity mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogden, John; Nix, David

A computer implemented method enables the recognition of speech and speech characteristics. Parameters are initialized of first probability density functions that map between the symbols in the vocabulary of one or more sequences of speech codes that represent speech sounds and a continuity map. Parameters are also initialized of second probability density functions that map between the elements in the vocabulary of one or more desired sequences of speech transcription symbols and the continuity map. The parameters of the probability density functions are then trained to maximize the probabilities of the desired sequences of speech-transcription symbols. A new sequence ofmore » speech codes is then input to the continuity map having the trained first and second probability function parameters. A smooth path is identified on the continuity map that has the maximum probability for the new sequence of speech codes. The probability of each speech transcription symbol for each input speech code can then be output.« less

Homologies of the meningeal-orbital arteries of humans: a reappraisal.

PubMed Central

Diamond, M K

1991-01-01

Two arteries connect the anterior branch of the middle meningeal artery to the lacrimal artery. One vessel, the sphenoidal artery, passes through the superior orbital fissure. The other vessel, the meningolacrimal artery, passes through the cranio-orbital foramen. An analysis of data derived from embryology, comparative anatomy, and patterns of adult variation indicates that the meningolacrimal artery is homologous with the ramus superior of the stapedial artery, an embryologically and phylogenetically primitive vessel. The sphenoidal artery probably forms late in human ontogeny and represents an evolutionary novelty. Its distribution is probably restricted to hominoids and may be exclusive to humans and orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus). The sphenoidal artery is associated with three other derived features: the sphenoparietal sinus and sulcus and a laterally expanded superior orbital fissure. The high frequency of the sphenoidal artery in Homo and Pongo probably represents a case of parallelism. The earliest paleontological evidence of an enlarged sphenoidal artery in the Hominidae occurs in Indonesian Homo erectus (Sangiran VI). PMID:1810930

Syndrome Diagnosis: Human Intuition or Machine Intelligence?

PubMed Central

Braaten, Øivind; Friestad, Johannes

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether artificial intelligence methods can represent objective methods that are essential in syndrome diagnosis. Most syndromes have no external criterion standard of diagnosis. The predictive value of a clinical sign used in diagnosis is dependent on the prior probability of the syndrome diagnosis. Clinicians often misjudge the probabilities involved. Syndromology needs objective methods to ensure diagnostic consistency, and take prior probabilities into account. We applied two basic artificial intelligence methods to a database of machine-generated patients - a ‘vector method’ and a set method. As reference methods we ran an ID3 algorithm, a cluster analysis and a naive Bayes’ calculation on the same patient series. The overall diagnostic error rate for the the vector algorithm was 0.93%, and for the ID3 0.97%. For the clinical signs found by the set method, the predictive values varied between 0.71 and 1.0. The artificial intelligence methods that we used, proved simple, robust and powerful, and represent objective diagnostic methods. PMID:19415142

Syndrome diagnosis: human intuition or machine intelligence?

PubMed

Braaten, Oivind; Friestad, Johannes

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether artificial intelligence methods can represent objective methods that are essential in syndrome diagnosis. Most syndromes have no external criterion standard of diagnosis. The predictive value of a clinical sign used in diagnosis is dependent on the prior probability of the syndrome diagnosis. Clinicians often misjudge the probabilities involved. Syndromology needs objective methods to ensure diagnostic consistency, and take prior probabilities into account. We applied two basic artificial intelligence methods to a database of machine-generated patients - a 'vector method' and a set method. As reference methods we ran an ID3 algorithm, a cluster analysis and a naive Bayes' calculation on the same patient series. The overall diagnostic error rate for the the vector algorithm was 0.93%, and for the ID3 0.97%. For the clinical signs found by the set method, the predictive values varied between 0.71 and 1.0. The artificial intelligence methods that we used, proved simple, robust and powerful, and represent objective diagnostic methods.

Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

2018-02-01

We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life in Koreans aged over 50 Years: the fourth and fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Kwon, Kyoung Min; Lee, Jung Soo; Jeon, Na Eun; Kim, Yeo Hyung

2017-12-16

To evaluate and analyse the factors associated with health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) in the Korean population aged 50 years and older. We used data obtained from the fourth and fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV-V) 2007-2012, a national, cross-sectional health examination and survey, for which representative data on the health, nutritional status, and physical activities of the Korean general population are collected by the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). The sampling protocol for the KNHANES was designed to involve a complex, stratified, multistage probability cluster survey of a representative sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian population in South Korea using a cross-sectional design. The association between HR-QoL and socio-economic factors and medical comorbidities in adults aged 50 years and older was investigated using data from the KNHANES IV-V from 2007 to 2012 (n = 17,937). The EuroQol 5-Dimension Questionnaire (EQ-5D) was used to evaluate HR-QoL, and the factors associated with HR-QoL were analysed after adjusting for socio-economic and demographic factors, anthropometric measurements and clinical comorbidities. Health status declined with ageing, and low socio-economic status had negative associations with health status. Gender had no association with health status. Among chronic medical conditions, arthritis and depression had significant associations with health status in older people when stratified by age and gender (P < 0.05). These findings suggest that older people may value the ability to perform daily activities, which may mean that it is necessary to pay more attention to the factors associated with musculoskeletal pain and emotional distress, as well as socio-economic status or chronic diseases. The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) is not a clinical trial registry, but the national health survey conducted by the Government of the Republic of Korea, to gather information on health and nutritional status of Korean population, to plan public health services and health education programs, and to do statistical studies of the efficiency of public health services required for setting up welfare and healthcare policies.

Tobacco Product Use Among Adults - United States, 2015.

PubMed

Phillips, Elyse; Wang, Teresa W; Husten, Corinne G; Corey, Catherine G; Apelberg, Benjamin J; Jamal, Ahmed; Homa, David M; King, Brian A

2017-11-10

Tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States (1). Despite declining cigarette smoking prevalence among U.S. adults, shifts in the tobacco product landscape have occurred in recent years (2,3). Previous estimates of tobacco product use among U.S. adults were obtained from the National Adult Tobacco Survey, which ended after the 2013-2014 cycle. This year, CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) assessed the most recent national estimates of tobacco product use among adults aged ≥18 years using, for the first time, data from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an annual, nationally representative, in-person survey of the noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian population. The 2015 NHIS adult core questionnaire included 33,672 adults aged ≥18 years, reflecting a 55.2% response rate. Data were weighted to adjust for differences in selection probability and nonresponse, and to provide nationally representative estimates. In 2015, 20.1 % of U.S. adults currently (every day or some days) used any tobacco product, 17.6% used any combustible tobacco product, and 3.9% used ≥2 tobacco products. By product, 15.1% of adults used cigarettes; 3.5% used electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes); 3.4% used cigars, cigarillos, or filtered little cigars; 2.3% used smokeless tobacco; and 1.2% used regular pipes, water pipes, or hookahs.* Current use of any tobacco product was higher among males; persons aged <65 years; non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska natives (AI/AN), whites, blacks, and persons of multiple races; persons living in the Midwest; persons with a General Educational Development (GED) certificate; persons with annual household income of <$35,000; persons who were single, never married, or not living with a partner or divorced, separated, or widowed; persons who were insured through Medicaid or uninsured; persons with a disability; and persons who identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB). Current use of any tobacco product was 47.2% among adults with serious psychological distress compared with 19.2% among those without serious psychological distress. Proven population-level interventions that focus on the diversity of tobacco product use are important to reducing tobacco-related disease and death in the United States (1).

Terrestrial invertebrates in the Rhynie chert ecosystem.

PubMed

Dunlop, Jason A; Garwood, Russell J

2018-02-05

The Early Devonian Rhynie and Windyfield cherts remain a key locality for understanding early life and ecology on land. They host the oldest unequivocal nematode worm (Nematoda), which may also offer the earliest evidence for herbivory via plant parasitism. The trigonotarbids (Arachnida: Trigonotarbida) preserve the oldest book lungs and were probably predators that practiced liquid feeding. The oldest mites (Arachnida: Acariformes) are represented by taxa which include mycophages and predators on nematodes today. The earliest harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) includes the first preserved tracheae, and male and female genitalia. Myriapods are represented by a scutigeromorph centipede (Chilopoda: Scutigeromorpha), probably a cursorial predator on the substrate, and a putative millipede (Diplopoda). The oldest springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola) were probably mycophages, and another hexapod of uncertain affinities preserves a gut infill of phytodebris. The first true insects (Hexapoda: Insecta) are represented by a species known from chewing (non-carnivorous?) mandibles. Coprolites also provide insights into diet, and we challenge previous assumptions that several taxa were spore-feeders. Rhynie appears to preserve a largely intact community of terrestrial animals, although some expected groups are absent. The known fossils are (ecologically) consistent with at least part of the fauna found around modern Icelandic hot springs.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The Rhynie cherts: our earliest terrestrial ecosystem revisited'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Moving on From Representativeness: Testing the Utility of the Global Drug Survey.

PubMed

Barratt, Monica J; Ferris, Jason A; Zahnow, Renee; Palamar, Joseph J; Maier, Larissa J; Winstock, Adam R

2017-01-01

A decline in response rates in traditional household surveys, combined with increased internet coverage and decreased research budgets, has resulted in increased attractiveness of web survey research designs based on purposive and voluntary opt-in sampling strategies. In the study of hidden or stigmatised behaviours, such as cannabis use, web survey methods are increasingly common. However, opt-in web surveys are often heavily criticised due to their lack of sampling frame and unknown representativeness. In this article, we outline the current state of the debate about the relevance of pursuing representativeness, the state of probability sampling methods, and the utility of non-probability, web survey methods especially for accessing hidden or minority populations. Our article has two aims: (1) to present a comprehensive description of the methodology we use at Global Drug Survey (GDS), an annual cross-sectional web survey and (2) to compare the age and sex distributions of cannabis users who voluntarily completed (a) a household survey or (b) a large web-based purposive survey (GDS), across three countries: Australia, the United States, and Switzerland. We find that within each set of country comparisons, the demographic distributions among recent cannabis users are broadly similar, demonstrating that the age and sex distributions of those who volunteer to be surveyed are not vastly different between these non-probability and probability methods. We conclude that opt-in web surveys of hard-to-reach populations are an efficient way of gaining in-depth understanding of stigmatised behaviours and are appropriate, as long as they are not used to estimate drug use prevalence of the general population.

Moving on From Representativeness: Testing the Utility of the Global Drug Survey

PubMed Central

Barratt, Monica J; Ferris, Jason A; Zahnow, Renee; Palamar, Joseph J; Maier, Larissa J; Winstock, Adam R

2017-01-01

A decline in response rates in traditional household surveys, combined with increased internet coverage and decreased research budgets, has resulted in increased attractiveness of web survey research designs based on purposive and voluntary opt-in sampling strategies. In the study of hidden or stigmatised behaviours, such as cannabis use, web survey methods are increasingly common. However, opt-in web surveys are often heavily criticised due to their lack of sampling frame and unknown representativeness. In this article, we outline the current state of the debate about the relevance of pursuing representativeness, the state of probability sampling methods, and the utility of non-probability, web survey methods especially for accessing hidden or minority populations. Our article has two aims: (1) to present a comprehensive description of the methodology we use at Global Drug Survey (GDS), an annual cross-sectional web survey and (2) to compare the age and sex distributions of cannabis users who voluntarily completed (a) a household survey or (b) a large web-based purposive survey (GDS), across three countries: Australia, the United States, and Switzerland. We find that within each set of country comparisons, the demographic distributions among recent cannabis users are broadly similar, demonstrating that the age and sex distributions of those who volunteer to be surveyed are not vastly different between these non-probability and probability methods. We conclude that opt-in web surveys of hard-to-reach populations are an efficient way of gaining in-depth understanding of stigmatised behaviours and are appropriate, as long as they are not used to estimate drug use prevalence of the general population. PMID:28924351

A multi-source probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Tonini, Roberto

2015-04-01

In this study we present the results obtained from a long-term Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area. Usual PHA for tephra dispersal needs the definition of eruptive scenarios (usually by grouping eruption sizes and possible vent positions in a limited number of classes) with associated probabilities, a meteorological dataset covering a representative time period, and a tephra dispersal model. PHA then results from combining simulations considering different volcanological and meteorological conditions through weights associated to their specific probability of occurrence. However, volcanological parameters (i.e., erupted mass, eruption column height, eruption duration, bulk granulometry, fraction of aggregates) typically encompass a wide range of values. Because of such a natural variability, single representative scenarios or size classes cannot be adequately defined using single values for the volcanological inputs. In the present study, we use a method that accounts for this within-size-class variability in the framework of Event Trees. The variability of each parameter is modeled with specific Probability Density Functions, and meteorological and volcanological input values are chosen by using a stratified sampling method. This procedure allows for quantifying hazard without relying on the definition of scenarios, thus avoiding potential biases introduced by selecting single representative scenarios. Embedding this procedure into the Bayesian Event Tree scheme enables the tephra fall PHA and its epistemic uncertainties. We have appied this scheme to analyze long-term tephra fall PHA from Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, in a multi-source paradigm. We integrate two tephra dispersal models (the analytical HAZMAP and the numerical FALL3D) into BET_VH. The ECMWF reanalysis dataset are used for exploring different meteorological conditions. The results obtained show that PHA accounting for the whole natural variability are consistent with previous probabilities maps elaborated for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei on the basis of single representative scenarios, but show significant differences. In particular, the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 5%, accounting for the whole range of variability (that is, from small violent strombolian to plinian eruptions), is similar to that displayed in the maps based on the medium magnitude reference eruption, but it is of a smaller extent. This is due to the relatively higher weight of the small magnitude eruptions considered in this study, but neglected in the reference scenario maps. On the other hand, in our new maps the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 1% is much larger than that of the medium magnitude reference eruption, due to the contribution of plinian eruptions at lower probabilities, again neglected in the reference scenario maps.

The development and implementation of stroke risk prediction model in National Health Insurance Service's personal health record.

PubMed

Lee, Jae-Woo; Lim, Hyun-Sun; Kim, Dong-Wook; Shin, Soon-Ae; Kim, Jinkwon; Yoo, Bora; Cho, Kyung-Hee

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to build a 10-year stroke prediction model and categorize a probability of stroke using the Korean national health examination data. Then it intended to develop the algorithm to provide a personalized warning on the basis of each user's level of stroke risk and a lifestyle correction message about the stroke risk factors. Subject to national health examinees in 2002-2003, the stroke prediction model identified when stroke was first diagnosed by following-up the cohort until 2013 and estimated a 10-year probability of stroke. It sorted the user's individual probability of stroke into five categories - normal, slightly high, high, risky, very risky, according to the five ranges of average probability of stroke in comparison to total population - less than 50 percentile, 50-70, 70-90, 90-99.9, more than 99.9 percentile, and constructed the personalized warning and lifestyle correction messages by each category. Risk factors in stroke risk model include the age, BMI, cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status and intensity, physical activity, alcohol drinking, past history (hypertension, coronary heart disease) and family history (stroke, coronary heart disease). The AUC values of stroke risk prediction model from the external validation data set were 0.83 in men and 0.82 in women, which showed a high predictive power. The probability of stroke within 10 years for men in normal group (less than 50 percentile) was less than 3.92% and those in very risky group (top 0.01 percentile) was 66.2% and over. The women's probability of stroke within 10 years was less than 3.77% in normal group (less than 50 percentile) and 55.24% and over in very risky group. This study developed the stroke risk prediction model and the personalized warning and the lifestyle correction message based on the national health examination data and uploaded them to the personal health record service called My Health Bank in the health information website - Health iN. By doing so, it urged medical users to strengthen the motivation of health management and induced changes in their health behaviors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

78 FR 58383 - Renewal of National Grain Car Council

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-23

... of National Grain Car Council AGENCY: Surface Transportation Board, DOT. ACTION: Notice of intent to... of the National Grain Car Council (NGCC). ADDRESSES: A copy of the charter is available at the... railroads (one marketing and one car management representative from each Class I), 7 representatives from...

Under-Representation in Nationally Representative Secondary Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frederick, Karen; Barnard-Brak, Lucy; Sulak, Tracey

2012-01-01

There has been a significant increase in the use of secondary data sets. Many such data sets purport to be nationally representative. Secondary data sets include research commissioned by the National Center for Education Statistics, the Centers for Disease Control, and other public entities. Research increasingly utilizes these secondary data in…

Disentangling the Relationship between Child Maltreatment and Violent Delinquency: Using a Nationally Representative Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yun, Ilhong; Ball, Jeremy D.; Lim, Hyeyoung

2011-01-01

This study uses the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescents (Add Health) data, a nationally representative sample of adolescents, to disentangle the relationship between child maltreatment and violent delinquency. Also examined are potential moderating effects of gender, socioeconomic status (SES), and religiosity on the association between…

Literacy Program. National Issues Forums Special Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Issues Forums, Dayton, OH.

In the spring of 1988, 33 representatives from 20 institutions or organizations sponsoring National Issues Forum (NIF) literacy programs attended a national conference in Washington, D.C. Throughout the conference, representatives from the organizations sponsoring NIF literacy programs made statements on the importance of NIF as a tool for…

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

The Impact of Parental Divorce on Children's Educational Attainment, Marital Timing, and Likelihood of Divorce.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keith, Verna M.; Finlay, Barbara

1988-01-01

Examined combined sample of national data to determine impact of parental divorce on children. Found parental divorce associated with lower educational attainment and earlier age at marriage for sons and daughters. Daughters of divorced parents had higher probability of being divorced. For sons of divorced parents, probability of ever marrying and…

Ancient representation of Meige's syndrome in the Moche culture in the pre-Columbian Peru.

PubMed

Martinez-Castrillo, Juan Carlos; Mariscal, Ana; Garcia-Ruiz, Pedro

2010-03-15

The Moches were a pre-Columbian culture from Peru, who had a fine ceramic technique and used to represent diseases. One example is the potter presented here which represents a man with a probable Meige's syndrome and may be the first artistic representation of this disease.

12 CFR 362.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... adjustable rate preferred stock, money market (auction rate) preferred stock, or other newly developed...) and the National Market System, i.e., the top tier of the National Association of Securities Dealers... shall be understood to be present whenever the FDIC determines there is a high probability that the...

Contaminants in fish tissue from US lakes and reservoirs: A national probabilistic study

EPA Science Inventory

An unequal probability design was used to develop national estimates for 268 persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic chemicals in fish tissue from lakes and reservoirs of the conterminous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes and Great Salt Lake). Predator (fillet) ...

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.

2018-01-01

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas—including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events. PMID:29457133

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S

2018-02-01

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas-including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics-still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events.

Tuberculosis in a South African prison – a transmission modelling analysis

PubMed Central

Johnstone-Robertson, Simon; Lawn, Stephen D; Welte, Alex; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Wood, Robin

2015-01-01

Background Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept. With the use of these data, a mathematical model was developed to explore the interactions between incarceration conditions and TB control measures. Methods Cell dimensions, cell occupancy, lock-up time, TB incidence and treatment delays were derived from court evidence and judicial reports. Using the Wells-Riley equation and probability analyses of contact between prisoners, we estimated the current TB transmission probability within prison cells, and estimated transmission probabilities of improved levels of case finding in combination with implementation of national and international minimum standards for incarceration. Results Levels of overcrowding (230%) in communal cells and poor TB case finding result in annual TB transmission risks of 90% per annum. Implementing current national or international cell occupancy recommendations would reduce TB transmission probabilities by 30% and 50%, respectively. Improved passive case finding, modest ventilation increase or decreased lock-up time would minimally impact on transmission if introduced individually. However, active case finding together with implementation of minimum national and international standards of incarceration could reduce transmission by 50% and 94%, respectively. Conclusions Current conditions of detention for awaiting-trial prisoners are highly conducive for spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB. Combinations of simple well-established scientific control measures should be implemented urgently. PMID:22272961

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milner, G. Martin; Miller, Patrice S.

1987-01-01

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Regression models for explaining and predicting concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in fish from streams in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowell, Lisa H.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Nakagaki, Naomi; Stone, Wesley W.; Thelin, Gail; Wolock, David M.

2009-01-01

Empirical regression models were developed for estimating concentrations of dieldrin, total chlordane, and total DDT in whole fish from U.S. streams. Models were based on pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish at 648 stream sites nationwide (1992-2001) as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Explanatory variables included fish lipid content, estimates (or surrogates) representing historical agricultural and urban sources, watershed characteristics, and geographic location. Models were developed using Tobit regression methods appropriate for data with censoring. Typically, the models explain approximately 50 to 70% of the variability in pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish. The models were used to predict pesticide concentrations in whole fish for streams nationwide using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's River Reach File 1 and to estimate the probability that whole-fish concentrations exceed benchmarks for protection of fish-eating wildlife. Predicted concentrations were highest for dieldrin in the Corn Belt, Texas, and scattered urban areas; for total chlordane in the Corn Belt, Texas, the Southeast, and urbanized Northeast; and for total DDT in the Southeast, Texas, California, and urban areas nationwide. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for dieldrin and chlordane was predicted to be low for most U.S. streams. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for total DDT is higher but varies depending on the fish taxon and on the benchmark used. Because the models in the present study are based on fish data collected during the 1990s and organochlorine pesticide residues in the environment continue to decline decades after their uses were discontinued, these models may overestimate present-day pesticide concentrations in fish. ?? 2009 SETAC.

The combined Fog Monitoring System of ARPAV over the Veneto Region, Po Valley - Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domenichini, F.; Rossa, A.; Zardini, F.; Monai, M.; Calza, M.; Della Valle, A.; Gaspari, V.

2010-07-01

The presence of fog is a frequent problem in the Po Valley. The consequent reduction in visibility has a strong impact on the road, air, ship and railway traffic. Both, fog monitoring and forecasting, constitute significant challenges, not least due to the high spatial and temporal variability of the phenomenon. ARPAV (Regional Agency for Environmental Prevention and Protection of Veneto) is the regional meteorological service of the north-eastern Italian region Veneto and, as such, is responsible for meteorological support to institutional and private users. Real-time visibility information over an extended area would represent an interesting product for road and transport safety. In the framework of the FP7 project Roadidea, (14 partners from 8 different countries, Dec 2007 - Aug 2010) on road safety and traffic control ARPAV developed pilot system for the fog monitoring. The main idea of this fog monitoring methodology is to merge information derived from different observation platforms, i.e. satellite low stratus cloud classification, direct visibility monitoring, statistical estimation of low visibility from meteorological parameters at the ground. This information is translated into probability maps of fog occurrence and information weight on a common grid (4x4 km) covering the flat portion of the region Veneto. These weights are used to combine the three data sources into the final fog probability map. A probabilistic verification applied to the fog monitoring product yields encouraging results, and is systematically more skillfull than the fog probabilities derived from the individual data sources. First real-time products are now available on the ARPAV Fog Pilot website for a group of specific users (motorway head office, road police, national railways and others) and are under testing.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Greece for seismic sources along the segmented Hellenic Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, Tatyana; Babeyko, Andrey; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

Greece and adjacent coastal areas are characterized by a high population exposure to tsunami hazard. The Hellenic Arc is the most active geotectonic structure for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis. We performed probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for selected locations of Greek coastlines which are the forecasting points officially used in the tsunami warning operations by the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center and the NEAMTWS/IOC/UNESCO. In our analysis we considered seismic sources for tsunami generation along the western, central and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc. We first created a synthetic catalog as long as 10,000 years for all the significant earthquakes with magnitudes in the range from 6.0 to 8.5, the real events being included in this catalog. For each event included in the synthetic catalog a tsunami was generated and propagated using Boussinesq model. The probability of occurrence for each event was determined by Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution. The results of our study are expressed as hazard curves and hazard maps. The hazard curves were obtained for the selected sites and present the annual probability of exceedance as a function of pick coastal tsunami amplitude. Hazard maps represent the distribution of peak coastal tsunami amplitudes corresponding to a fixed annual probability. In such forms our results can be easily compared to the ones obtained in other studies and further employed for the development of tsunami risk management plans. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Landslide prediction system in Slovenia (Masprem)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šinigoj, Jasna; Jemec Auflič, Mateja; Krivic, Matija

2017-04-01

The landslide prediction system MASPREM has been developed in 2013 to (1) predict rainfall induced landslides on national and local level and (2) inform Civil Protection agency and inhabitants of an increased probability of landslide occurrences. A landslide prediction system on national level integrates three major components: (1) a landslide susceptibility map; (2) landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and (3) precipitation forecasting model's (i.e., ALADIN, INCA). Landslide prediction is also calculated on a local level, including exposure maps of inhabitants, buildings and different types of infrastructure to potential landslide occurrence at a scale of 1: 25,000 for 14 selected municipalities. MASPREM system runs in a 12 hour cycling mode, for 24 hours ahead. The results of the probability of landslide models are classified into five classes, with values ranging from one to five; where class one represents areas with a negligible landslide probability and class five areas with a very high landslide probability. It is a fully automated system based on open source software (PostgreSQL) and web applications for displaying results (Java, GDAL). When precipitation forecasting models are transferred to the GeoZS server the conversion process to raster data starts, stores data in a PostgreSQL database and performs the calculation. Based on final results, the WMS service that is responsible for the distribution of data through the service for download and review of results in a web application is created. In the period, from September 2013 to August 2016, MASPREM gave an alert about the probability of landslide occurrences in 84 cases. While the system has potential to become operational in use after the validation phase, there are also limitations related to the input data that should not be neglected: spatial resolution of the ALADIN model, the incomplete landslide inventory that is important for the validation, defining how many days of antecedent rainfall significantly influence the landslide occurrences, characteristic of lithological units according to water contents. Despite the limitations currently affecting the landslide prediction system, results show that the system demonstrates capability in predicting rainfall induced landslides. When the validation phase will be finished and the certainty of system will be high enough, the system will be able to inform infrastructure owners, civil agencies, and operators of potential landslide hazards. Komac, M., Šinigoj, J., Jemec Auflič, M. 2014: A national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia. V: SASSA, Kyoji (ur.), CANUTI, Paolo (ur.), YIN, Yueping (ur.). Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment. Vol. 2, Methods of landslide studies. Cham ... [etc.]: Springer, cop. 2014, str. 577-582, doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_89. Jemec Auflič, M, Šinigoj, J, Krivic, M, Podboj, M, Peternel,T, Komac, M. Landslide prediction system for rainfall induced landslides in Slovenia (Masprem) Geologija, 2016, 59/2, 259-271, doi: 10.5474/geologija.2016.016. Šinigoj, J., Jemec Auflič, M., Kumelj, Š., Krivic, M., Požar, M., Podboj, M., Tukić, M., Peternel, T., Ponjavič, G., Zakrajšek, M. & Prkić, N. 2016: Nadgradnja sistema za obveščanje in opozarjanje v primeru proženja zemeljskih plazov - Masprem2: končno poročilo. Geolo\\vski zavod Slovenije, Ljubljana: 114 p

Sociodemographic Differences in Depressed Mood: Results from a Nationally Representative Sample of High School Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paxton, Raheem J.; Valois, Robert F.; Watkins, Ken W.; Huebner, E. Scott; Drane, J. Wanzer

2007-01-01

Background: Research on adolescent mental health suggests that prevalence rates for depressed mood are not uniformly distributed across all populations. This study examined demographic difference in depressed mood among a nationally representative sample of high school adolescents. Methods: The 2003 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey was utilized…

The State of Our Nation's Youth, 1999-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horatio Alger Association of Distinguished Americans, Inc., Alexandria, VA.

This report details findings of a national questionnaire survey of the attitudes and plans of American adolescents. Participating were 1,327 students between 14 and 18 years of age in a nationally representative sample. To permit regional comparisons, the questionnaires were mailed to representative households within each of the nine United States…

Community violence, children's development, and mass media: in pursuit of new insights, new goals, and new strategies.

PubMed

Friedlander, B Z

1993-02-01

Community violence that victimizes children is an unmitigated evil that is exacerbated by vast economic and social forces that leave people in central cities and the rural countryside adrift on seas of rolelessness, hopelessness, group disintegration, and alienation. The contemporary drug scene and the easy availability of guns greatly intensify violence on a local scale, while crimes of violence, especially with guns, appear to be level or declining in the nation as a whole. Claims that the persistently high levels of violence in mass media, mostly television, are largely responsible for violence in society represent narrow views of very large issues. These narrow views overlook essential elements of both phenomena--violence and media. Direct models of interpersonal violence in families and in the community probably give rise to more violent behavior than indirect models in media. Disinhibitory and provocative aspects of media probably do as much or more to trigger violent behavior than violent narratives and violent actions. Comprehensive meta-analysis indicates that prosocial messages on television can have greater effects on behavior than antisocial messages. These data support the contention that mass media can play a strong and positive role in alleviating some of the distress of victims of community violence, and in redirecting the behavior of some of its perpetrators so as to protect the children.

The role of personality in health care use: Results of a population-based longitudinal study in Germany.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Bock, Jens-Oliver; König, Hans-Helmut

2017-01-01

To determine the role of personality in health care use longitudinally. Data were derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of German households starting in 1984. Concentrating on the role of personality, we used data from the years 2005, 2009 and 2013. Personality was measured by using the GSOEP Big Five Inventory (BFI-S). Number of physician visits in the last 3 months and hospital stays in the last year were used as measures of health care use. Adjusting for predisposing factors, enabling resources, and need factors, fixed effects regressions revealed that physician visits increased with increasing neuroticism, whereas extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness and conscientiousness did not affect physician visits in a significant way. The effect of self-rated health on physician visits was significantly moderated by neuroticism. Moreover, fixed effects regressions revealed that the probability of hospitalization in the past year increased with increasing extraversion, whereas the other personality factors did not affect this outcome measure significantly. Our findings suggest that changes in neuroticism are associated with changes in physician visits and that changes in extraversion are associated with the probability of hospitalization. Since recent studies have shown that treatments can modify personality traits, developing interventional strategies should take into account personality factors. For example, efforts to intervene in changing neuroticism might have beneficial effects for the healthcare system.

Projection of young-old and old-old with functional disability: does accounting for the changing educational composition of the elderly population make a difference?

PubMed

Ansah, John P; Malhotra, Rahul; Lew, Nicola; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Chan, Angelique; Bayer, Steffen; Matchar, David B

2015-01-01

This study compares projections, up to year 2040, of young-old (aged 60-79) and old-old (aged 80+) with functional disability in Singapore with and without accounting for the changing educational composition of the Singaporean elderly. Two multi-state population models, with and without accounting for educational composition respectively, were developed, parameterized with age-gender-(education)-specific transition probabilities (between active, functional disability and death states) estimated from two waves (2009 and 2011) of a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling Singaporeans aged ≥ 60 years (N=4,990). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. Not accounting for educational composition overestimated the young-old with functional disability by 65 percent and underestimated the old-old by 20 percent in 2040. Accounting for educational composition, the proportion of old-old with functional disability increased from 40.8 percent in 2000 to 64.4 percent by 2040; not accounting for educational composition, the proportion in 2040 was 49.4 percent. Since the health profiles, and hence care needs, of the old-old differ from those of the young-old, health care service utilization and expenditure and the demand for formal and informal caregiving will be affected, impacting health and long-term care policy.

Projection of Young-Old and Old-Old with Functional Disability: Does Accounting for the Changing Educational Composition of the Elderly Population Make a Difference?

PubMed Central

Ansah, John P.; Malhotra, Rahul; Lew, Nicola; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Chan, Angelique; Bayer, Steffen; Matchar, David B.

2015-01-01

This study compares projections, up to year 2040, of young-old (aged 60-79) and old-old (aged 80+) with functional disability in Singapore with and without accounting for the changing educational composition of the Singaporean elderly. Two multi-state population models, with and without accounting for educational composition respectively, were developed, parameterized with age-gender-(education)-specific transition probabilities (between active, functional disability and death states) estimated from two waves (2009 and 2011) of a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling Singaporeans aged ≥60 years (N=4,990). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. Not accounting for educational composition overestimated the young-old with functional disability by 65 percent and underestimated the old-old by 20 percent in 2040. Accounting for educational composition, the proportion of old-old with functional disability increased from 40.8 percent in 2000 to 64.4 percent by 2040; not accounting for educational composition, the proportion in 2040 was 49.4 percent. Since the health profiles, and hence care needs, of the old-old differ from those of the young-old, health care service utilization and expenditure and the demand for formal and informal caregiving will be affected, impacting health and long-term care policy. PMID:25974069

A National Probabilistic Study of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Fish from US Lakes and Reservoirs

EPA Science Inventory

National estimates were developed for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in fish from lakes and reservoirs of the conterminous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes and Great Salt Lake) using an unequal probability design. Predator (fillet) and bottom-dweller (w...

NATIONAL HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (NHANES I)

EPA Science Inventory

The First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) was conducted on a nationwide probability sample of approximately 32,000 persons 1-74 years of age. The NHANES I sample was selected so that certain population groups thought to be at high risk of malnutrition ...

An evaluation of procedures to estimate monthly precipitation probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legates, David R.

1991-01-01

Many frequency distributions have been used to evaluate monthly precipitation probabilities. Eight of these distributions (including Pearson type III, extreme value, and transform normal probability density functions) are comparatively examined to determine their ability to represent accurately variations in monthly precipitation totals for global hydroclimatological analyses. Results indicate that a modified version of the Box-Cox transform-normal distribution more adequately describes the 'true' precipitation distribution than does any of the other methods. This assessment was made using a cross-validation procedure for a global network of 253 stations for which at least 100 years of monthly precipitation totals were available.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications.

PubMed

Biedermann, Alex; Taroni, Franco; Margot, Pierre

2012-01-31

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications by Budowle et al., published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al., we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation, and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community--as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief.

Properties of the probability density function of the non-central chi-squared distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

András, Szilárd; Baricz, Árpád

2008-10-01

In this paper we consider the probability density function (pdf) of a non-central [chi]2 distribution with arbitrary number of degrees of freedom. For this function we prove that can be represented as a finite sum and we deduce a partial derivative formula. Moreover, we show that the pdf is log-concave when the degrees of freedom is greater or equal than 2. At the end of this paper we present some Turán-type inequalities for this function and an elegant application of the monotone form of l'Hospital's rule in probability theory is given.

Analysis of SET pulses propagation probabilities in sequential circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Shuo; Yu, Fei; Yang, Yiqun

2018-05-01

As the feature size of CMOS transistors scales down, single event transient (SET) has been an important consideration in designing logic circuits. Many researches have been done in analyzing the impact of SET. However, it is difficult to consider numerous factors. We present a new approach for analyzing the SET pulses propagation probabilities (SPPs). It considers all masking effects and uses SET pulses propagation probabilities matrices (SPPMs) to represent the SPPs in current cycle. Based on the matrix union operations, the SPPs in consecutive cycles can be calculated. Experimental results show that our approach is practicable and efficient.

Strategies for Success: Achieving the National Urban Education Goals. Proceedings from Meetings with Representatives from 70 National Education, Business and Philanthropic Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of the Great City Schools, Washington, DC.

This document outlines 44 strategies for meeting the educational needs of urban areas by the year 2000. The strategies are based on six goals for urban education adapted from the national education goals issued by President George Bush and the National Governors' Association. The strategies were proposed by representatives from more than 70…

Water resources of Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumsion, C.T.

1976-01-01

Dinosaur National Monument, partly in the Rocky Mountain System and partly in the Colorado Plateaus physiographic province, covers an area of 322 square miles (834 square kilometres) in northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah. The climate is generally cool and pleasant in May, early June, September, and October; winters are cold. Normal annual precipitation ranges from less than 8 to more than 16 inches (203 to 406 millimetres).Geologic formations in the monument range in age from upper Precambrian to Holocene, but not all ages are represented. The monument is on the south limb of the east-trending regional fold representing the Uinta Mountains. Faults and subsidary folds on the south slope of the Uinta Mountains complicate the geology and hydrology of the area.None of the surface streams in the monument are diverted for public supply, but the Green and Yampa Rivers are a recreational resource for boaters. The flow of the Green River is regulated by Flaming Gorge Reservoir; however, flood potentials are estimated for the Yampa River and three smaller streams. Facilities in the monument are not endangered by probable mean annual floods, but may sustain some damage to facilities by the 25- or 50-year floods.Major aquifers in the monument are sandstone and limestone formations, but these formations are drained in the higher areas. Alluvium along the major stream channels yields small amounts of water to wells, but some of the water is not of suitable chemical quality for public supply. All public water supplies in 1971 were obtained from wells, and the use of water during 1970 was estimated to be 15 million gallons (46 acre-feet or 0.057 cubic hectometres). Most of the ground water obtained from sandstone and limestone is of suitable chemical quality for public supply.

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

Undernutrition among adults in India: the significance of individual-level and contextual factors impacting on the likelihood of underweight across sub-populations.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald

2017-01-01

To investigate the extent to which individual-level as well as macro-level contextual factors influence the likelihood of underweight across adult sub-populations in India. Population-based cross-sectional survey included in India's National Health Family Survey conducted in 2005-06. We disaggregated into eight sub-populations. Multistage nationally representative household survey covering 99 % of India's population. The survey covered 124 385 females aged 15-49 years and 74 369 males aged 15-54 years. A social gradient in underweight exists in India. Even after allowing for wealth status, differences in the predicted probability of underweight persisted based upon rurality, age/maturity and gender. We found individual-level education lowered the likelihood of underweight for males, but no statistical association for females. Paradoxically, rural young (15-24 years) females from more educated villages had a higher likelihood of underweight relative to those in less educated villages; but for rural mature (>24 years) females the opposite was the case. Christians had a significantly lower likelihood of underweight relative to other socio-religious groups (OR=0·53-0·80). Higher state-level inequality increased the likelihood of underweight across most population groups, while neighbourhood inequality exhibited a similar relationship for the rural young population subgroups only. Individual states/neighbourhoods accounted for 5-9 % of the variation in the prediction of underweight. We found that rural young females represent a particularly highly vulnerable sub-population. Economic growth alone is unlikely to reduce the burden of malnutrition in India; accordingly, policy makers need to address the broader social determinants that contribute to higher underweight prevalence in specific demographic subgroups.

Sports-related genitourinary injuries presenting to United States emergency departments.

PubMed

Bagga, Herman S; Fisher, Patrick B; Tasian, Gregory E; Blaschko, Sarah D; McCulloch, Charles E; McAninch, Jack W; Breyer, Benjamin N

2015-01-01

To describe epidemiologic features of sports-related genitourinary (GU) injuries and determine patient cohorts and particular sporting activities associated with increased GU injury risk. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System, a data set validated to provide a probability sample of injury-related US emergency department (ED) presentations, was analyzed to characterize GU injuries between 2002 and 2010. A total of 13,851 observations were analyzed to derive national estimates. Between 2002 and 2010, an estimated 137,525 individuals (95% confidence interval, 104,490-170,620) presented to US EDs with GU injuries sustained during sporting activities. Nearly three-quarters of injuries occurred in the pediatric population. The most common product involved was a bicycle, representing approximately one-third of injuries in both adult and pediatric populations. Injuries related to team sports such as football, baseball or softball, basketball, and soccer were also common, particularly among boys where they represented a combined third of all injuries. Eighty-nine percent of all patients were evaluated and treated in the ED without inpatient admission. The large majority of injuries involved the external genitalia (60%), and significant injuries of paired GU organs (kidneys and testicles) requiring inpatient admission were rare (8.5%). Sports-related GU injuries are most commonly sustained during the use of a bicycle. However, there are other associated activities with identifiable high-risk cohorts, products, and situations. Consumers, practitioners, and injury-prevention experts can use our epidemiologic data to prioritize and develop strategies aimed at the prevention and limitation of such injuries, particularly when counseling at-risk cohorts, such as those with solitary kidneys or testicles. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Beyond Flint: National Trends in Drinking Water Quality Violations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allaire, M.; Wu, H.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Ensuring safe water supply for communities across the U.S. represents an emerging challenge. Aging infrastructure, impaired source water, and strained community finances may increase vulnerability of water systems to quality violations. In the aftermath of Flint, there is a great need to assess the current state of U.S. drinking water quality. How widespread are violations? What are the spatial and temporal patterns in water quality? Which types of communities and systems are most vulnerable? This is the first national assessment of trends in drinking water quality violations across several decades. In 2015, 9% of community water systems violated health-related water quality standards. These non-compliant systems served nearly 23 million people. Thus, the challenge of providing safe drinking water extends beyond Flint and represents a nationwide concern. We use a panel dataset that includes every community water system in the United States from 1981 to 2010 to identify factors that lead to regulatory noncompliance. This study focuses on health-related violations of the Safe Drinking Water Act. Lasso regression informed selection of appropriate covariates, while logistic regressions modeled the probability of noncompliance. We find that compliance is positively associated with private ownership, purchased water supply, and greater household income. Yet, greater concentration of utility ownership and violations in prior years are associated with a higher likelihood of violation. The results suggest that purchased water contracts, which are growing among small utilities, could serve as a way to improve regulatory compliance in the future. However, persistence of violations and ownership concentration deserve attention from policymakers. Already, the EPA has begun to prioritize enforcement of persistent violators. Overall, as the revitalization of U.S. water infrastructure becomes a growing priority area, results of this study are intended to inform investment and policy.

Long-term consequences of childhood ADHD on criminal activities.

PubMed

Fletcher, Jason; Wolfe, Barbara

2009-09-01

Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most prevalent mental health problems facing children. Little is known of the long-term consequences of ADHD on young adult outcomes. We examine the associations between childhood ADHD symptoms and criminal activities as a young adult. We use a nationally representative study of US adolescents and logistic regression analysis to examine our research question. We also control for common family factors using sibling random and fixed effects and test the robustness of our results in several ways. The empirical estimates show that children who experience ADHD symptoms face a substantially increased likelihood of engaging in many types of criminal activities. An included calculation of the social costs associated with criminal activities by individuals with childhood ADHD finds the costs to be substantial. Our study provides the first evidence using a nationally representative dataset of the long term consequences on criminal activities of childhood ADHD. Our results are quite robust to a number of specification checks. Limitations of our study include that our measures of ADHD are retrospective, we have no information on treatment for ADHD, and it remains possible that our results are confounded by unmeasured variables. Our results suggest that children showing ADHD symptoms should be viewed as a group at high risk of poor outcomes as young adults. As such, a good case can be made for targeting intervention programs on this group of children and conducting evaluations to learn if such interventions are effective in reducing the probability that these children commit a crime. Development of such intervention programs and evaluating them for efficiency could be dollars well spent in terms of crime and drug abuse averted.

Body mass index and employment-based health insurance.

PubMed

Fong, Ronald L; Franks, Peter

2008-05-09

Obese workers incur greater health care costs than normal weight workers. Possibly viewed by employers as an increased financial risk, they may be at a disadvantage in procuring employment that provides health insurance. This study aims to evaluate the association between body mass index [BMI, weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters] of employees and their likelihood of holding jobs that include employment-based health insurance [EBHI]. We used the 2004 Household Components of the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We utilized logistic regression models with provision of EBHI as the dependent variable in this descriptive analysis. The key independent variable was BMI, with adjustments for the domains of demographics, social-economic status, workplace/job characteristics, and health behavior/status. BMI was classified as normal weight (18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9), or obese (> or = 30.0). There were 11,833 eligible respondents in the analysis. Among employed adults, obese workers [adjusted probability (AP) = 0.62, (0.60, 0.65)] (P = 0.005) were more likely to be employed in jobs with EBHI than their normal weight counterparts [AP = 0.57, (0.55, 0.60)]. Overweight workers were also more likely to hold jobs with EBHI than normal weight workers, but the difference did not reach statistical significance [AP = 0.61 (0.58, 0.63)] (P = 0.052). There were no interaction effects between BMI and gender or age. In this nationally representative sample, we detected an association between workers' increasing BMI and their likelihood of being employed in positions that include EBHI. These findings suggest that obese workers are more likely to have EBHI than other workers.

The Society-Deciders Model and Fairness in Nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flomenbom, Ophir

2015-05-01

Modeling the dynamics in nations from economical and sociological perspectives is a central theme in economics and sociology. Accurate models can predict and therefore help all the world's citizens. Yet, recent years have show that the current models are missing. Here, we develop a dynamical society-deciders model that can explain the stability in a nation, based on concepts from dynamics, ecology and socio-econo-physics; a nation has two groups that interconnect, the deciders and the society. We show that a nation is either stable or it collapses. This depends on just two coefficients that we relate with sociological and economical indicators. We define a new socio-economic indicator, fairness. Fairness can measure the stability in a nation and how probable a change favoring the society is. We compute fairness among all the world's nations. Interestingly, in comparison with other indicators, fairness shows that the USA loses its rank among Western democracies, India is the best among the 15 most populated nations, and Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have significantly improved their rankings as a result of recent revolutions, further increasing the probability of additional positive changes. Within the model, long lasting crises are solved rather than with increasing governmental spending or cuts with regulations that reduce the stability of the deciders, namely, increasing fairness, while, for example, shifting wealth in the direction of the people, and therefore increasing further opportunities.

National Childcare Consumer Study: 1975. Volume II: Current Patterns of Childcare Use in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodes, Thomas W.

This is the second of three study reports on the national incidence of child care usage as well as consumer needs, preferences, attitudes and opinions on child care, based on 4609 personal interviews conducted in 1975 from a national probability sample of households with children under 14 years of age. The study was sponsored by the Office of…

An energy-dependent numerical model for the condensation probability, γ j

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerby, Leslie Marie

The “condensation” probability, γ j, is an important variable in the preequilibrium stage of nuclear spallation reactions. It represents the probability that p j excited nucleons (excitons) will “condense” to form complex particle type j in the excited residual nucleus. In addition, it has a significant impact on the emission width, or probability of emitting fragment type j from the residual nucleus. Previous formulations for γ j were energy-independent and valid for fragments up to 4He only. This paper explores the formulation of a new model for γ j, one which is energy-dependent and valid for up to 28Mg, andmore » which provides improved fits compared to experimental fragment spectra.« less

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

An energy-dependent numerical model for the condensation probability, γ j

DOE PAGES

Kerby, Leslie Marie

2016-12-09

The “condensation” probability, γ j, is an important variable in the preequilibrium stage of nuclear spallation reactions. It represents the probability that p j excited nucleons (excitons) will “condense” to form complex particle type j in the excited residual nucleus. In addition, it has a significant impact on the emission width, or probability of emitting fragment type j from the residual nucleus. Previous formulations for γ j were energy-independent and valid for fragments up to 4He only. This paper explores the formulation of a new model for γ j, one which is energy-dependent and valid for up to 28Mg, andmore » which provides improved fits compared to experimental fragment spectra.« less

Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mark Heathcott; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fireprone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National...

Stump sprout dominance probabilities of five oak species in southern Indiana 25 years after clearcut harvesting

Treesearch

Dale R. Weigel; Daniel C. Dey; Callie J. Schweitzer; Chao-Ying Joanne Peng

2017-01-01

When regenerating oak or mixed-hardwood forests in southern Indiana, oak (Quercus spp.) stump sprouts are vital to sustaining their presence and long-term dominance. In 1987, a study began in the Hoosier National Forest in southern Indiana. The study goal was to predict the sprouting potential and dominance probability of oaks. Before clearcut...

Stump sprout dominance probabilities of five oak species in southern Indiana 20 years after clearcut harvesting

Treesearch

Dale R. Weigel; Daniel C. Dey; Chao-Ying Joanne Peng

2011-01-01

Oak (Quercus spp.) stump sprouts are vital to sustaining oak's presence and long-term dominance when regenerating oak or mixed-hardwood forests in southern Indiana. A study was initiated on the Hoosier National Forest in southern Indiana in 1987 to predict the sprouting potential and dominance probability of oaks. Before clearcut harvesting, we...

Spatial forecasting of disease risk and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Cola, L.

2002-01-01

Because maps typically represent the value of a single variable over 2-dimensional space, cartographers must simplify the display of multiscale complexity, temporal dynamics, and underlying uncertainty. A choropleth disease risk map based on data for polygonal regions might depict incidence (cases per 100,000 people) within each polygon for a year but ignore the uncertainty that results from finer-scale variation, generalization, misreporting, small numbers, and future unknowns. In response to such limitations, this paper reports on the bivariate mapping of data "quantity" and "quality" of Lyme disease forecasts for states of the United States. Historical state data for 1990-2000 are used in an autoregressive model to forecast 2001-2010 disease incidence and a probability index of confidence, each of which is then kriged to provide two spatial grids representing continuous values over the nation. A single bivariate map is produced from the combination of the incidence grid (using a blue-to-red hue spectrum), and a probabilistic confidence grid (used to control the saturation of the hue at each grid cell). The resultant maps are easily interpretable, and the approach may be applied to such problems as detecting unusual disease occurences, visualizing past and future incidence, and assembling a consistent regional disease atlas showing patterns of forecasted risks in light of probabilistic confidence.

An evaluation of the Australian Rotavirus Surveillance Program.

PubMed

Roberts-Witteveen, April R; Patel, Mahomed S; Roche, Paul W

2008-09-01

The Australian Rotavirus Serotyping Program (ARSP) serotypes rotavirus isolates obtained from stool samples sent from Australian laboratories. In collaboration with ARSP the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing evaluated the program for its utility and capacity to monitor effectiveness of the rotavirus vaccines recently introduced into the Australian National Immunisation Program. The system was described using ARSP annual reports and staff interviews. The attributes of the system were assessed by adapting standard guidelines for evaluating a surveillance system. Email surveys or face to face interviews were conducted with staff of ARSP, participating laboratories, rotavirus vaccine manufacturing companies and representatives of the Communicable Diseases Network Australia. The ability of the ARSP to monitor changes in rotavirus serotype epidemiology was assessed. ARSP serotypes rotavirus isolates received from participating laboratories at least bi-annually, with results being reported at least as often. Serotype analyses have informed formulation of rotavirus vaccines and contributed to forecasting the extent of outbreaks caused by novel serotypes. The ARSP will be able to monitor changes in rotavirus serotype epidemiology and identify probable vaccination failures. Enhancement of the representativeness and sensitivity of the system are needed for the data to remain useful in the public health context. Methods for transferring data between the program and state and territory health departments need to be developed.

Setting up an Online Panel Representative of the General Population: The German Internet Panel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blom, Annelies G.; Gathmann, Christina; Krieger, Ulrich

2015-01-01

This article looks into the processes and outcomes of setting up and maintaining a probability-based longitudinal online survey, which is recruited face-to-face and representative of both the online and the offline population aged 16-75 in Germany. This German Internet Panel studies political and economic attitudes and reform preferences through…

False-positive liver scan in a patient with hepatic amyloidosis: case report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, K.; Okuda, K.; Yoshida, T.

1976-01-01

A case of secondary hepatic amyloidosis exhibiting a large liver and multiple defects on the $sup 198$Au-radiocolloid scintigraph is presented. Biopsy and angiographic studies indicated that the areas of reduced colloid uptake represented heavy amyloid deposition, and the area of the left lobe with contrasting high activity most probably represented compensatory hypertrophy. (auth)

Frequency of leisure-time physical activity and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in the US population: results from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Scragg, Robert; Camargo, Carlos A

2008-09-15

The decline in vitamin D status among older people is probably due to decreased synthesis of vitamin D by sun-exposed skin and/or decreased outdoor activity. The authors examined the association between outdoor leisure physical activity and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) (n = 15,148 aged >/=20 years). The mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration declined with increasing age, with 79, 73, and 68 nmol/liter for persons aged 20-39, 40-59, and 60 or more years. The proportion that engaged in outdoor activity in the past month was 80% for persons aged 20-39 and 40-59 years but 71% for those aged 60 or more years. In contrast, the mean difference in 25-hydroxyvitamin D between those who participated in outdoor activities daily compared with those who did not participate in the past month was similar for the youngest and oldest age groups: 13 and 16 nmol/liter, respectively. Those persons aged 60 or more years who participated in daily outdoor activities had a mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration similar to that of persons aged 20-39 years: 77 versus 79 nmol/liter, respectively. These nationally representative data suggest that persons aged 60 or more years can synthesize enough vitamin D from daily outdoor activities to maintain vitamin D levels similar to those of young adults.

The cost of karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse in the United States compared with other natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weary, David J.

2015-01-01

Rocks with potential for karst formation are found in all 50 states. Damage due to karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse is a natural hazard of national scope. Repair of damage to buildings, highways, and other infrastructure represents a significant national cost. Sparse and incomplete data show that the average cost of karst-related damages in the United States over the last 15 years is estimated to be at least $300,000,000 per year and the actual total is probably much higher. This estimate is lower than the estimated annual costs for other natural hazards; flooding, hurricanes and cyclonic storms, tornadoes, landslides, earthquakes, or wildfires, all of which average over $1 billion per year. Very few state organizations track karst subsidence and sinkhole damage mitigation costs; none occurs at the Federal level. Many states discuss the karst hazard in their State hazard mitigation plans, but seldom include detailed reports of subsidence incidents or their mitigation costs. Most State highway departments do not differentiate karst subsidence or sinkhole collapse from other road repair costs. Amassing of these data would raise the estimated annual cost considerably. Information from insurance organizations about sinkhole damage claims and payouts is also not readily available. Currently there is no agency with a mandate for developing such data. If a more realistic estimate could be made, it would illuminate the national scope of this hazard and make comparison with costs of other natural hazards more realistic.

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

Probability versus representativeness in infancy: can infants use naïve physics to adjust population base rates in probabilistic inference?

PubMed

Denison, Stephanie; Trikutam, Pallavi; Xu, Fei

2014-08-01

A rich tradition in developmental psychology explores physical reasoning in infancy. However, no research to date has investigated whether infants can reason about physical objects that behave probabilistically, rather than deterministically. Physical events are often quite variable, in that similar-looking objects can be placed in similar contexts with different outcomes. Can infants rapidly acquire probabilistic physical knowledge, such as some leaves fall and some glasses break by simply observing the statistical regularity with which objects behave and apply that knowledge in subsequent reasoning? We taught 11-month-old infants physical constraints on objects and asked them to reason about the probability of different outcomes when objects were drawn from a large distribution. Infants could have reasoned either by using the perceptual similarity between the samples and larger distributions or by applying physical rules to adjust base rates and estimate the probabilities. Infants learned the physical constraints quickly and used them to estimate probabilities, rather than relying on similarity, a version of the representativeness heuristic. These results indicate that infants can rapidly and flexibly acquire physical knowledge about objects following very brief exposure and apply it in subsequent reasoning. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Muscle categorization using PDF estimation and Naive Bayes classification.

PubMed

Adel, Tameem M; Smith, Benn E; Stashuk, Daniel W

2012-01-01

The structure of motor unit potentials (MUPs) and their times of occurrence provide information about the motor units (MUs) that created them. As such, electromyographic (EMG) data can be used to categorize muscles as normal or suffering from a neuromuscular disease. Using pattern discovery (PD) allows clinicians to understand the rationale underlying a certain muscle characterization; i.e. it is transparent. Discretization is required in PD, which leads to some loss in accuracy. In this work, characterization techniques that are based on estimating probability density functions (PDFs) for each muscle category are implemented. Characterization probabilities of each motor unit potential train (MUPT) are obtained from these PDFs and then Bayes rule is used to aggregate the MUPT characterization probabilities to calculate muscle level probabilities. Even though this technique is not as transparent as PD, its accuracy is higher than the discrete PD. Ultimately, the goal is to use a technique that is based on both PDFs and PD and make it as transparent and as efficient as possible, but first it was necessary to thoroughly assess how accurate a fully continuous approach can be. Using gaussian PDF estimation achieved improvements in muscle categorization accuracy over PD and further improvements resulted from using feature value histograms to choose more representative PDFs; for instance, using log-normal distribution to represent skewed histograms.

Probabilistic Round Trip Contamination Analysis of a Mars Sample Acquisition and Handling Process Using Markovian Decompositions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, Nicolas; Lin, Ying; Barengoltz, Jack

2010-01-01

A method for evaluating the probability of a Viable Earth Microorganism (VEM) contaminating a sample during the sample acquisition and handling (SAH) process of a potential future Mars Sample Return mission is developed. A scenario where multiple core samples would be acquired using a rotary percussive coring tool, deployed from an arm on a MER class rover is analyzed. The analysis is conducted in a structured way by decomposing sample acquisition and handling process into a series of discrete time steps, and breaking the physical system into a set of relevant components. At each discrete time step, two key functions are defined: The probability of a VEM being released from each component, and the transport matrix, which represents the probability of VEM transport from one component to another. By defining the expected the number of VEMs on each component at the start of the sampling process, these decompositions allow the expected number of VEMs on each component at each sampling step to be represented as a Markov chain. This formalism provides a rigorous mathematical framework in which to analyze the probability of a VEM entering the sample chain, as well as making the analysis tractable by breaking the process down into small analyzable steps.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Neural Mechanisms for Integrating Prior Knowledge and Likelihood in Value-Based Probabilistic Inference

PubMed Central

Ting, Chih-Chung; Yu, Chia-Chen; Maloney, Laurence T.

2015-01-01

In Bayesian decision theory, knowledge about the probabilities of possible outcomes is captured by a prior distribution and a likelihood function. The prior reflects past knowledge and the likelihood summarizes current sensory information. The two combined (integrated) form a posterior distribution that allows estimation of the probability of different possible outcomes. In this study, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying Bayesian integration using a novel lottery decision task in which both prior knowledge and likelihood information about reward probability were systematically manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis. Consistent with Bayesian integration, as sample size increased, subjects tended to weigh likelihood information more compared with prior information. Using fMRI in humans, we found that the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) correlated with the mean of the posterior distribution, a statistic that reflects the integration of prior knowledge and likelihood of reward probability. Subsequent analysis revealed that both prior and likelihood information were represented in mPFC and that the neural representations of prior and likelihood in mPFC reflected changes in the behaviorally estimated weights assigned to these different sources of information in response to changes in the environment. Together, these results establish the role of mPFC in prior-likelihood integration and highlight its involvement in representing and integrating these distinct sources of information. PMID:25632152

The Role of the National Science Foundation in Graduate Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Humphreys, Lloyd

The National Science Foundation has traditionally supported education in the sciences, engineering, and technology through traineeships, fellowships, grants and other awards. This year's budget will probably not allow any money for generalized traineeships, there will be a modest increase in research support, some money for fellowships and limited…

What Makes Professional Development Effective? Results from a National Sample of Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garet, Michael S.; Porter, Andrew C.; Desimone, Laura; Birman, Beatrice F.; Yoon, Kwang Suk

2001-01-01

Used a national probability sample of 1,027 mathematics and science teachers to provide a large-scale empirical comparison of effects of different characteristics of professional development on teachers' learning. Results identify three core features of professional development that have significant positive effects on teachers' self-reported…

SECOND NATIONAL HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (NHANES II)

EPA Science Inventory

The second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NHANES II, is a nationwide probability sample of 27,801 persons from 6 months 74 years of age. From this sample, 25,286 people were interviewed and 20,322 people were examined, resulting in an overall response rate of 7...

ADHD and Health Services Utilization in the National Health Interview Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuffe, Steven P.; Moore, Charity G.; McKeown, Robert

2009-01-01

Objective: Describe the general health, comorbidities and health service use among U.S. children with ADHD. Method: The 2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) contained the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ; used to determine probable ADHD), data on medical problems, overall health, and health care utilization. Results: Asthma…

Multistage variable probability forest volume inventory. [Defiance Unit of the Navajo Nation in Arizona and Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. E. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The net board foot volume (Scribner log rule) of the standing Ponderosa pine timber on the Defiance Unit of the Navajo Nation's forested land was estimated using a multistage forest volume inventory scheme with variable sample selection probabilities. The inventory designed to accomplish this task required that both LANDSAT MSS digital data and aircraft acquired data be used to locate one acre ground splits, which were subsequently visited by ground teams conducting detailed tree measurements using an optical dendrometer. The dendrometer measurements were then punched on computer input cards and were entered in a computer program developed by the U.S. Forest Service. The resulting individual tree volume estimates were then expanded through the use of a statistically defined equation to produce the volume estimate for the entire area which includes 192,026 acres and is approximately a 44% the total forested area of the Navajo Nation.

19 CFR 148.88 - Certain representatives to and officers of the United Nations and the Organization of American...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... members of their families; (2) Such resident members of their staffs as may be agreed upon between the... United Nations member concerned and members of their families; (3) Every person designated by a United... and members of their families; (4) Such other principal resident representatives of United Nations...

19 CFR 148.88 - Certain representatives to and officers of the United Nations and the Organization of American...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... members of their families; (2) Such resident members of their staffs as may be agreed upon between the... United Nations member concerned and members of their families; (3) Every person designated by a United... and members of their families; (4) Such other principal resident representatives of United Nations...

Worry as a Predictor of Nutrition Behaviors: Results from a Nationally Representative Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrer, Rebecca A.; Bergman, Hannah E.; Klein, William M. P.

2013-01-01

Worry has been shown to predict a variety of health behaviors, such as cancer screening, yet there are few studies linking worry and nutrition. This study used nationally representative data from National Cancer Institute's Food Attitudes and Behavior Survey ("n" = 3,397) to examine the association between health-related worry and a variety of…

European Lifelong Guidance Policy Network Representatives' Conceptions of the Role of Information and Communication Technologies Related to National Guidance Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettunen, Jaana; Vuorinen, Raimo; Ruusuvirta, Outi

2016-01-01

This article reports findings from a phenomenographic investigation into European Lifelong Guidance Policy Network representatives' conceptions of the role of information and communication technologies (ICT) related to national lifelong guidance policies. The role of ICT in relation to national lifelong guidance policies was conceived as (1)…

CHARLES SHELDON ANTELOPE RANGE AND SHELDON NATIONAL ANTELOPE REFUGE, NEVADA AND OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cathrall, J.B.; Tuchek, E.T.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Charles Sheldon Antelope Range and Sheldon National Antelope Refuge, in Humboldt and Washoe Counties, Nevada, and Lake and Harney Counties, Oregon, was conducted. The investigation identified areas of mineral-resource potential within the range and refuge. The range and refuge have areas of substantiated resource potential for precious opal and uranium, a demonstrated resource of decorative building stone, and areas with probable resource potential for mercury and for base- and precious-metal sulfide deposits. Reservoir temperatures, estimated from the analysis of thermal springs, indicate that a probable potential for geothermal resources exists in two areas in the range. No other energy resources were identitied in the area.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

The impact of socioeconomic status on the association between biomedical and psychosocial well-being and all-cause mortality in older Spanish adults.

PubMed

Doménech-Abella, Joan; Mundó, Jordi; Moneta, Maria Victoria; Perales, Jaime; Ayuso-Mateos, José Luis; Miret, Marta; Haro, Josep Maria; Olaya, Beatriz

2018-03-01

The aim of this paper was to analyze the effect of biomedical and psychosocial well-being, based on distinct successful aging models (SA), on time to mortality, and determine whether this effect was modified by socioeconomic status (SES) in a nationally representative sample of older Spanish adults. Data were taken from a 3-year follow-up study with 2783 participants aged 50 or over. Vital status was ascertained using national registers or asking participants' relatives. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the time to death by SES, and levels of biomedical and psychosocial SA. Cox proportional hazard regression models were conducted to explore interactions between SES and SA models while adjusting for gender, age, and marital status. Lower levels of SES and biomedical and psychosocial SA were associated with low probability of survival. Only the interaction between SES and biomedical SA was significant. Biomedical SA impacted on mortality rates among individuals with low SES but not on those with medium or high SES, whereas psychosocial SA affected mortality regardless of SES. Promoting equal access to health care system and improved psychosocial well-being could be a protective factor against premature mortality in older Spanish adults with low SES.

Psychological trauma and evidence for enhanced vulnerability for posttraumatic stress disorder through previous trauma among West Nile refugees

PubMed Central

Neuner, Frank; Schauer, Maggie; Karunakara, Unni; Klaschik, Christine; Robert, Christina; Elbert, Thomas

2004-01-01

Background Political instability and the civil war in Southern Sudan have resulted in numerous atrocities, mass violence, and forced migration for vast parts of the civilian population in the West Nile region. High exposure to traumatic experiences has been particularly prominent in the Ugandan and Sudanese of the West Nile Region, representing an indication of the psychological strain posed by years of armed conflict. Methods In this study the impact of traumatic events on the prevalence and severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a random sample of 3.339 Ugandan nationals, Sudanese nationals, and Sudanese refugees (1.831 households) of the West Nile region is assessed. Results Results show a positive correlation between the number of traumatic events and the number of endorsed PTSD symptoms. Of the 58 respondents who experienced the greatest number of traumatizing experiences, all reported symptoms which met the DSM-IV criteria for PTSD. Conclusions There is a clear dose-effect relationship between traumatic exposure and PTSD in the studied populations with high levels of traumatic events. In this context, it is probable that any individual could develop PTSD regardless of other risk-factors once the trauma load reaches a certain threshold. PMID:15504233

Methods of estimating or accounting for neighborhood associations with health using complex survey data.

PubMed

Brumback, Babette A; Cai, Zhuangyu; Dailey, Amy B

2014-05-15

Reasons for health disparities may include neighborhood-level factors, such as availability of health services, social norms, and environmental determinants, as well as individual-level factors. Investigating health inequalities using nationally or locally representative data often requires an approach that can accommodate a complex sampling design, in which individuals have unequal probabilities of selection into the study. The goal of the present article is to review and compare methods of estimating or accounting for neighborhood influences with complex survey data. We considered 3 types of methods, each generalized for use with complex survey data: ordinary regression, conditional likelihood regression, and generalized linear mixed-model regression. The relative strengths and weaknesses of each method differ from one study to another; we provide an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of each method theoretically, in terms of the nature of the estimable associations and the plausibility of the assumptions required for validity, and also practically, via a simulation study and 2 epidemiologic data analyses. The first analysis addresses determinants of repeat mammography screening use using data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. The second analysis addresses disparities in preventive oral health care using data from the 2008 Florida Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey.

A multi-agent intelligent environment for medical knowledge.

PubMed

Vicari, Rosa M; Flores, Cecilia D; Silvestre, André M; Seixas, Louise J; Ladeira, Marcelo; Coelho, Helder

2003-03-01

AMPLIA is a multi-agent intelligent learning environment designed to support training of diagnostic reasoning and modelling of domains with complex and uncertain knowledge. AMPLIA focuses on the medical area. It is a system that deals with uncertainty under the Bayesian network approach, where learner-modelling tasks will consist of creating a Bayesian network for a problem the system will present. The construction of a network involves qualitative and quantitative aspects. The qualitative part concerns the network topology, that is, causal relations among the domain variables. After it is ready, the quantitative part is specified. It is composed of the distribution of conditional probability of the variables represented. A negotiation process (managed by an intelligent MediatorAgent) will treat the differences of topology and probability distribution between the model the learner built and the one built-in in the system. That negotiation process occurs between the agents that represent the expert knowledge domain (DomainAgent) and the agent that represents the learner knowledge (LearnerAgent).

[Adult mortality differentials in Argentina].

PubMed

Rofman, R

1994-06-01

Adult mortality differentials in Argentina are estimated and analyzed using data from the National Social Security Administration. The study of adult mortality has attracted little attention in developing countries because of the scarcity of reliable statistics and the greater importance assigned to demographic phenomena traditionally associated with development, such as infant mortality and fertility. A sample of 39,421 records of retired persons surviving as of June 30, 1988, was analyzed by age, sex, region of residence, relative amount of pension, and social security fund of membership prior to the consolidation of the system in 1967. The thirteen former funds were grouped into the five categories of government, commerce, industry, self-employed, and other, which were assumed to be proxies for the activity sector in which the individual spent his active life. The sample is not representative of the Argentine population, since it excludes the lowest and highest socioeconomic strata and overrepresents men and urban residents. It is, however, believed to be adequate for explaining mortality differentials for most of the population covered by the social security system. The study methodology was based on the technique of logistic analysis and on the use of regional model life tables developed by Coale and others. To evaluate the effect of the study variables on the probability of dying, a regression model of maximal verisimilitude was estimated. The model relates the logit of the probability of death between ages 65 and 95 to the available explanatory variables, including their possible interactions. Life tables were constructed by sex, region of residence, previous pension fund, and income. As a test of external consistency, a model including only age and sex as explanatory variables was constructed using the methodology. The results confirmed consistency between the estimated values and other published estimates. A significant conclusion of the study was that social security data are a satisfactory source for study of adult mortality, a finding of importance in cases where vital statistics systems are deficient. Mortality differentials by income level and activity sector were significant, representing up to 11.5 years in life expectancy at age 20 and 4.4 years at age 65. Mortality differentials by region were minor, probably due to the nature of the sample. The lowest observed mortality levels were in own-account workers, independent professionals, and small businessmen.

Challenges of DNA-based mark-recapture studies of American black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Settlage, K.E.; Van Manen, F.T.; Clark, J.D.; King, T.L.

2008-01-01

We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities (p >0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV <20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark–recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark–recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.

Estimation of the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure using subset simulation and random set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Diego A.; Uribe, Felipe; Hurtado, Jorge E.

2018-02-01

Random set theory is a general framework which comprises uncertainty in the form of probability boxes, possibility distributions, cumulative distribution functions, Dempster-Shafer structures or intervals; in addition, the dependence between the input variables can be expressed using copulas. In this paper, the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure are calculated by means of random set theory. In order to accelerate the calculation, a well-known and efficient probability-based reliability method known as subset simulation is employed. This method is especially useful for finding small failure probabilities in both low- and high-dimensional spaces, disjoint failure domains and nonlinear limit state functions. The proposed methodology represents a drastic reduction of the computational labor implied by plain Monte Carlo simulation for problems defined with a mixture of representations for the input variables, while delivering similar results. Numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Infections in British clinical laboratories, 1986-87.

PubMed

Grist, N R; Emslie, J A

1989-07-01

During 1986-87 this continuing survey showed 15 specific infections in the staff of 235 laboratories, representing 28,524 person years of exposure. The community was the probable source of four of the five cases of tuberculosis and one of the five cases of salmonellosis. Occupational exposure was the probable cause of four infections by Shigella flexneri, three by Salmonella typhimurium, and one by S typhi, all affecting medical laboratory scientific officers (MLSOs) in microbiology. Occupational exposure was also the probable cause of one case of tuberculosis in a mortuary technician and one of probable non-A, non-B hepatitis in a medical laboratory scientific officer haematology worker. The overall incidence of reported infections was 52.6/100,000 person years (35/100,000 for infections of probable occupational origin). The highest rates of laboratory acquired infections related to MLSO microbiology workers and mortuary technicians. No additional infections were seen as a result of extending the survey to forensic laboratories.

Late quaternary environments, Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elias, S.A.; Short, S.K.; Waythomas, C.F.

1996-01-01

Late Quaternary pollen, plant macrofossils, and insect fossils were studied from sites along three rivers in the foothills north of the Alaska Range in Denali National Park and Preserve. The aim was to carry out a reconaissance of late Quaternary organic sediments in the region, emphasizing the mid-Wisconsin, or Boutellier interstadial interval. Samples of probable early- to mid-Boutellier age (ca. 60 000 to 40 000 B.P.) from Unit 2 at the Toklat High Bluffs site indicate open boreal woodland with dense alder shrub vegetation. Organic Unit 1 at the Foraker River Slump site indicates open taiga with shrubs of probable Boutellier age. Fossil evidence from the youngest horizon in this unit indicates graminoid tundra environments, marking the transition from interstadial to late Wisconsin glacial environments. Early Holocene samples from the Foraker exposures suggest birch shrub tundra; coniferous forest apparently became established only alter 6500 B.P. Local variations in forest composition at the Foraker and Sushana sites were probably the result of disturbances, such as fire.

Representativeness Uncertainty in Chemical Data Assimilation Highlight Mixing Barriers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lary, David John

2003-01-01

When performing chemical data assimilation the observational, representativeness, and theoretical uncertainties have very different characteristics. In this study we have accurately characterized the representativeness uncertainty by studying the probability distribution function (PDF) of the observations. The average deviation has been used as a measure of the width of the PDF and of the variability (representativeness uncertainty) for the grid cell. It turns out that for long-lived tracers such as N2O and CH4 the representativeness uncertainty is markedly different from the observational uncertainty and clearly delineates mixing barriers such as the polar vortex edge, the tropical pipe and the tropopause.

The influence of agroforestry and other land-use types on the persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) population: an individual-based model approach.

PubMed

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)--an individual-based model--to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Estimation of the high-spatial-resolution variability in extreme wind speeds for forestry applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venäläinen, Ari; Laapas, Mikko; Pirinen, Pentti; Horttanainen, Matti; Hyvönen, Reijo; Lehtonen, Ilari; Junila, Päivi; Hou, Meiting; Peltola, Heli M.

2017-07-01

The bioeconomy has an increasing role to play in climate change mitigation and the sustainable development of national economies. In Finland, a forested country, over 50 % of the current bioeconomy relies on the sustainable management and utilization of forest resources. Wind storms are a major risk that forests are exposed to and high-spatial-resolution analysis of the most vulnerable locations can produce risk assessment of forest management planning. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of the wind multiplier approach for downscaling of maximum wind speed, using 20 m spatial resolution CORINE land-use dataset and high-resolution digital elevation data. A coarse spatial resolution estimate of the 10-year return level of maximum wind speed was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalyzed data. Using a geospatial re-mapping technique the data were downscaled to 26 meteorological station locations to represent very diverse environments. Applying a comparison, we find that the downscaled 10-year return levels represent 66 % of the observed variation among the stations examined. In addition, the spatial variation in wind-multiplier-downscaled 10-year return level wind was compared with the WAsP model-simulated wind. The heterogeneous test area was situated in northern Finland, and it was found that the major features of the spatial variation were similar, but in some locations, there were relatively large differences. The results indicate that the wind multiplier method offers a pragmatic and computationally feasible tool for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations with the highest forest wind damage risks. It can also be used to provide the necessary wind climate information for wind damage risk model calculations, thus making it possible to estimate the probability of predicted threshold wind speeds for wind damage and consequently the probability (and amount) of wind damage for certain forest stand configurations.

Correlation between pubic hair grooming and STIs: results from a nationally representative probability sample.

PubMed

Osterberg, E Charles; Gaither, Thomas W; Awad, Mohannad A; Truesdale, Matthew D; Allen, Isabel; Sutcliffe, Siobhan; Breyer, Benjamin N

2017-05-01

STIs are the most common infections among adults. Concurrently, pubic hair grooming is prevalent. Small-scale studies have demonstrated a relationship between pubic hair grooming and STIs. We aim to examine this relationship in a large sample of men and women. We conducted a probability survey of US residents aged 18-65 years. The survey ascertained self-reported pubic hair grooming practices, sexual behaviours and STI history. We defined extreme grooming as removal of all pubic hair more than 11 times per year and high-frequency grooming as daily/weekly trimming. Cutaneous STIs included herpes, human papillomavirus, syphilis and molluscum. Secretory STIs included gonorrhoea, chlamydia and HIV. We analysed lice separately. Of 7580 respondents who completed the survey, 74% reported grooming their pubic hair, 66% of men and 84% of women. After adjusting for age and lifetime sexual partners, ever having groomed was positively associated with a history of self-reported STIs (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.2), including cutaneous STIs (OR 2.6; CI 1.8 to 3.7), secretory STIs (OR 1.7; CI 1.3 to 2.2) and lice (OR 1.9; CI 1.3 to 2.9). These positive associations were stronger for extreme groomers (OR 4.4; CI 2.9 to 6.8) and high-frequency groomers (OR 3.5; CI 2.3 to 5.4) with cutaneous STIs, and for non-extreme groomers (OR 2.0; CI 1.3 to 3.0) and low-frequency groomers (OR 2.0; CI 1.3 to 3.1) with lice. Among a representative sample of US residents, pubic hair grooming was positively related to self-reported STI history. Further research is warranted to gain insight into STI risk-reduction strategies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Mental and Physical Health Status and Alcohol and Drug Use Following Return From Deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan

PubMed Central

Schultz, Mark R.; Vogt, Dawne; Glickman, Mark E.; Elwy, A. Rani; Drainoni, Mari-Lynn; Osei-Bonsu, Princess E.; Martin, James

2012-01-01

Objectives. We examined (1) mental and physical health symptoms and functioning in US veterans within 1 year of returning from deployment, and (2) differences by gender, service component (Active, National Guard, other Reserve), service branch (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines), and deployment operation (Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom [OEF/OIF]). Methods. We surveyed a national sample of 596 OEF/OIF veterans, oversampling women to make up 50% of the total, and National Guard and Reserve components to each make up 25%. Weights were applied to account for stratification and nonresponse bias. Results. Mental health functioning was significantly worse compared with the general population; 13.9% screened positive for probable posttraumatic stress disorder, 39% for probable alcohol abuse, and 3% for probable drug abuse. Men reported more alcohol and drug use than did women, but there were no gender differences in posttraumatic stress disorder or other mental health domains. OIF veterans reported more depression or functioning problems and alcohol and drug use than did OEF veterans. Army and Marine veterans reported worse mental and physical health than did Air Force or Navy veterans. Conclusions. Continuing identification of veterans at risk for mental health and substance use problems is important for evidence-based interventions intended to increase resilience and enhance treatment. PMID:22390605

A causal loop analysis of the sustainability of integrated community case management in Rwanda.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric; Morrow, Melanie; Langston, Anne; Weiss, Jennifer; Landegger, Justine; Tsuma, Laban

2015-04-01

Expansion of community health services in Rwanda has come with the national scale up of integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) of malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. We used a sustainability assessment framework as part of a large-scale project evaluation to identify factors affecting iCCM sustainability (2011). We then (2012) used causal-loop analysis to identify systems determinants of iCCM sustainability from a national systems perspective. This allows us to develop three high-probability future scenarios putting the achievements of community health at risk, and to recommend mitigating strategies. Our causal loop diagram highlights both balancing and reinforcing loops of cause and effect in the national iCCM system. Financial, political and technical scenarios carry high probability for threatening the sustainability through: (1) reduction in performance-based financing resources, (2) political shocks and erosion of political commitment for community health, and (3) insufficient progress in resolving district health systems--"building blocks"--performance gaps. In a complex health system, the consequences of choices may be delayed and hard to predict precisely. Causal loop analysis and scenario mapping make explicit complex cause-and-effects relationships and high probability risks, which need to be anticipated and mitigated. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Age at First Drink, Drinking, Binge Drinking and DSM-5 Alcohol Use Disorder among Hispanic National Groups in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Caetano, Raul; Mills, Britain A.; Vaeth, Patrice A. C.; Reingle, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Background This paper examines age at first drink and adult drinking, binge drinking and DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) among U.S. Hispanic national groups. Methods Respondents come from two independent studies. The Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals 18 years of age and older selected from the household population in: Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles. Respondents in the border area (N=1,307) constituted a household probability sample of Mexican Americans living on U.S. counties that border Mexico. In both surveys, data were collected during computer assisted interviews conducted in respondents' homes. The HABLAS and the border sample response rates were 76% and 67%, respectively. Results U.S. born Hispanics begin drinking at a younger age than those who are foreign born, independent of national group. Among foreign born Hispanics, age of arrival in the U.S. is not associated with age at first drink. Results support the hypothesis that a younger age at first drink is associated with a higher mean volume of drinking, a higher probability of bingeing and a higher probability of DSM-5 AUD. But the results do not show a clear pattern by which a particular national group would consistently show no associations or stronger associations between age at first drink and the alcohol-related outcomes under consideration. Conclusions An earlier age at first drinking is positively associated with heavier drinking patterns among U.S. Hispanics. However, as in other areas of alcohol epidemiology, here too there is considerable variation in age at first drink and drinking across Hispanic national groups. PMID:24689445

Patient education-level affects treatment allocation and prognosis in esophageal- and gastroesophageal junctional cancer in Sweden.

PubMed

Linder, Gustav; Sandin, Fredrik; Johansson, Jan; Lindblad, Mats; Lundell, Lars; Hedberg, Jakob

2018-02-01

Low socioeconomic status and poor education elevate the risk of developing esophageal- and junctional cancer. High education level also increases survival after curative surgery. The present study aimed to investigate associations, if any, between patient education-level and treatment allocation after diagnosis of esophageal- and junctional cancer and its subsequent impact on survival. A nation-wide cohort study was undertaken. Data from a Swedish national quality register for esophageal cancer (NREV) was linked to the National Cancer Register, National Patient Register, Prescribed Drug Register, Cause of Death Register and educational data from Statistics Sweden. The effect of education level (low; ≤9 years, intermediate; 10-12 years and high >12 years) on the probability of allocation to curative treatment was analyzed with logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier-method and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of education on survival. A total of 4112 patients were included. In a multivariate logistic regression model, high education level was associated with greater probability of allocation to curative treatment (adjusted OR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.08-2.03, p = 0,014) as was adherence to a multidisciplinary treatment-conference (adjusted OR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.40-4.08, p < 0,001). High education level was associated with improved survival in the patients allocated to curative treatment (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.99, p = 0,036). In this nation-wide cohort of esophageal- and junctional cancer patients, including data regarding many confounders, high education level was associated with greater probability of being offered curative treatment and improved survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stump sprout dominance probabilities of five oak species in southern Indiana 15 years after clearcut harvesting

Treesearch

Dale R. Weigel; Daniel C. Dey; Chao-Ying Joanne Peng

2006-01-01

Oak stump sprouts are vital to sustaining oak's presence and long-term dominance when regenerating oak-, mixed-hardwood forests. A study was initiated on the Hoosier National Forest in southern Indiana in 1987 to predict the sprouting potential and dominance probability of oaks. Before clearcutting, we sampled 2,188 trees of 5 oak species: white oak (...

Using Landscape-Based Decision Rules to Prioritize Locations of Fuel Treatments in the Boreal Mixedwood of Western Canada

Treesearch

Marc-André Parisien; Dave R. Junor; Victor G. Kafka

2006-01-01

This study used a rule-based approach to prioritize locations of fuel treatments in the boreal mixedwood forest of western Canada. The burn probability (BP) in and around Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan was mapped using the Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning) model. Fuel treatment locations were determined according to three scenarios and five...

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures

PubMed Central

Sloma, Michael F.; Mathews, David H.

2016-01-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. PMID:27852924

Modeling land use and cover change: Predicting re-enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program using GIS and data mining procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shcherbaniuk, Mykola Vasylyovych

In this research, the concept of the CRP lands being re-enrolled or returned to crop production was considered as a part of a larger conceptual domain of land use and cover change (LUCC). The aim of the study was to develop models for predicting the probability of farmers' re-enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the Cache River Watershed, in Southern Illinois. The results of these analyses showed that the probability of the CRP re-enrollment is a function of a number of factors including both the economic incentives to farmers as well as the spatial and non-spatial characteristics of the farms and the CRP land parcels. Both logistical regressions and decision tree models confirmed the importance of seven individual variables. It was found that the probability of CRP re-enrollment was higher for parcels located closer to a stream, the national forest, a road and a town. Also higher re-enrollment was indicated for predominant farm location adjacent to the national forest and within a floodplain and on dry soils, higher proportion of farmland in pasture and higher elevation and population density. Alternatively, the probability of re-enrollment was found to be lower closer to an interstate highway, predominant farm location adjacent to the national refuge and higher proportion of farmland in row crops. The probability of CRP re-enrollment was found to be higher at higher CRP rental rates, lower commodity prices, lower cropland acreage, and lower proportion of farmland in cropland. For two additional important determinants, the probability of re-enrollment was found to be higher for lower proportion of cropland enrolled in CRP and in cases where the farmer was both the owner and operator. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the spatial heterogeneity of farms and land parcels (as accounted by spatial variables that were found to be relevant) should be taken into account while malting the plans for the CRP re-enrollment for the 2007 farm bill.

Financial Incentives and Physician Practice Participation in Medicare's Value-Based Reforms.

PubMed

Markovitz, Adam A; Ramsay, Patricia P; Shortell, Stephen M; Ryan, Andrew M

2017-07-26

To evaluate whether greater experience and success with performance incentives among physician practices are related to increased participation in Medicare's voluntary value-based payment reforms. Publicly available data from Medicare's Physician Compare (n = 1,278; January 2012 to November 2013) and nationally representative physician practice data from the National Survey of Physician Organizations 3 (NSPO3; n = 907,538; 2013). We used regression analysis to examine practice-level relationships between prior exposure to performance incentives and participation in key Medicare value-based payment reforms: accountable care organization (ACO) programs, the Physician Quality Reporting System ("Physician Compare"), and the Meaningful Use of Health Information Technology program ("Meaningful Use"). Prior experience and success with financial incentives were measured as (1) the percentage of practices' revenue from financial incentives for quality or efficiency; and (2) practices' exposure to public reporting of quality measures. We linked physician participation data from Medicare's Physician Compare to the NSPO3 survey. There was wide variation in practices' exposure to performance incentives, with 64 percent exposed to financial incentives, 45 percent exposed to public reporting, and 2.2 percent of practice revenue coming from financial incentives. For each percentage-point increase in financial incentives, there was a 0.9 percentage-point increase in the probability of participating in ACOs (standard error [SE], 0.1, p < .001) and a 0.8 percentage-point increase in the probability of participating in Meaningful Use (SE, 0.1, p < .001), controlling for practice characteristics. Financial incentives were not associated with participation in Physician Compare. Among ACO participants, a 1 percentage-point increase in incentives was associated with a 0.7 percentage-point increase in the probability of being "very well" prepared to utilize cost and quality data (SE, 0.1, p < .001). Physicians organizations' prior experience and success with performance incentives were related to participation in Medicare ACO arrangements and participation in the meaningful use criteria but not to participation in Physician Compare. We conclude that Medicare must complement financial incentives with additional efforts to address the needs of practices with less experience with such incentives to promote value-based payment on a broader scale. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The Overlap of Witnessing Partner Violence with Child Maltreatment and Other Victimizations in a Nationally Representative Survey of Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamby, Sherry; Finkelhor, David; Turner, Heather; Ormrod, Richard

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine the co-occurrence of witnessing partner violence with child maltreatment and other forms of victimization. Method: Data are from the National Survey of Children's Exposure to Violence (NatSCEV), a nationally representative telephone survey of the victimization experiences of 4,549 youth aged 0-17. Results: Witnessing partner…

The Relationship between Child Abuse, Parental Divorce, and Lifetime Mental Disorders and Suicidality in a Nationally Representative Adult Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Afifi, Tracie O.; Boman, Jonathan; Fleisher, William; Sareen, Jitender

2009-01-01

Objectives: To determine how the experiences of child abuse and parental divorce are related to long-term mental health outcomes using a nationally representative adult sample after adjusting for sociodemographic variables and parental psychopathology. Methods: Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS, n=5,877; age 15-54 years;…

Urban stormwater capture curve using three-parameter mixed exponential probability density function and NRCS runoff curve number method.

PubMed

Kim, Sangdan; Han, Suhee

2010-01-01

Most related literature regarding designing urban non-point-source management systems assumes that precipitation event-depths follow the 1-parameter exponential probability density function to reduce the mathematical complexity of the derivation process. However, the method of expressing the rainfall is the most important factor for analyzing stormwater; thus, a better mathematical expression, which represents the probability distribution of rainfall depths, is suggested in this study. Also, the rainfall-runoff calculation procedure required for deriving a stormwater-capture curve is altered by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (Washington, D.C.) (NRCS) runoff curve number method to consider the nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relation and, at the same time, obtain a more verifiable and representative curve for design when applying it to urban drainage areas with complicated land-use characteristics, such as occurs in Korea. The result of developing the stormwater-capture curve from the rainfall data in Busan, Korea, confirms that the methodology suggested in this study provides a better solution than the pre-existing one.

Estimating the probability that the sample mean is within a desired fraction of the standard deviation of the true mean.

PubMed

Schillaci, Michael A; Schillaci, Mario E

2009-02-01

The use of small sample sizes in human and primate evolutionary research is commonplace. Estimating how well small samples represent the underlying population, however, is not commonplace. Because the accuracy of determinations of taxonomy, phylogeny, and evolutionary process are dependant upon how well the study sample represents the population of interest, characterizing the uncertainty, or potential error, associated with analyses of small sample sizes is essential. We present a method for estimating the probability that the sample mean is within a desired fraction of the standard deviation of the true mean using small (n<10) or very small (n < or = 5) sample sizes. This method can be used by researchers to determine post hoc the probability that their sample is a meaningful approximation of the population parameter. We tested the method using a large craniometric data set commonly used by researchers in the field. Given our results, we suggest that sample estimates of the population mean can be reasonable and meaningful even when based on small, and perhaps even very small, sample sizes.

A probabilistic NF2 relational algebra for integrated information retrieval and database systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fuhr, N.; Roelleke, T.

The integration of information retrieval (IR) and database systems requires a data model which allows for modelling documents as entities, representing uncertainty and vagueness and performing uncertain inference. For this purpose, we present a probabilistic data model based on relations in non-first-normal-form (NF2). Here, tuples are assigned probabilistic weights giving the probability that a tuple belongs to a relation. Thus, the set of weighted index terms of a document are represented as a probabilistic subrelation. In a similar way, imprecise attribute values are modelled as a set-valued attribute. We redefine the relational operators for this type of relations such thatmore » the result of each operator is again a probabilistic NF2 relation, where the weight of a tuple gives the probability that this tuple belongs to the result. By ordering the tuples according to decreasing probabilities, the model yields a ranking of answers like in most IR models. This effect also can be used for typical database queries involving imprecise attribute values as well as for combinations of database and IR queries.« less

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Redundant Sensors for Mobile Robot Navigation

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

represent a probability that the area is empty, while positive numbers mcan it’s probably occupied. Zero reprtsents the unknown. The basic idea is that...room to give it absolute positioning information. This works by using two infrared emitters and detectors on the robot. Measurements of anglcs are made...meters (T in Kelvin) 273 sec Distances returned when assuming 80 degrees Farenheit , but where. actual temperature is 60 degrees, will be seven inches

Aggregation of carbon dioxide sequestration storage assessment units

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blondes, Madalyn S.; Schuenemeyer, John H.; Olea, Ricardo A.; Drew, Lawrence J.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting a national assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage resources, mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Pre-emission capture and storage of CO2 in subsurface saline formations is one potential method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the negative impact of global climate change. Like many large-scale resource assessments, the area under investigation is split into smaller, more manageable storage assessment units (SAUs), which must be aggregated with correctly propagated uncertainty to the basin, regional, and national scales. The aggregation methodology requires two types of data: marginal probability distributions of storage resource for each SAU, and a correlation matrix obtained by expert elicitation describing interdependencies between pairs of SAUs. Dependencies arise because geologic analogs, assessment methods, and assessors often overlap. The correlation matrix is used to induce rank correlation, using a Cholesky decomposition, among the empirical marginal distributions representing individually assessed SAUs. This manuscript presents a probabilistic aggregation method tailored to the correlations and dependencies inherent to a CO2 storage assessment. Aggregation results must be presented at the basin, regional, and national scales. A single stage approach, in which one large correlation matrix is defined and subsets are used for different scales, is compared to a multiple stage approach, in which new correlation matrices are created to aggregate intermediate results. Although the single-stage approach requires determination of significantly more correlation coefficients, it captures geologic dependencies among similar units in different basins and it is less sensitive to fluctuations in low correlation coefficients than the multiple stage approach. Thus, subsets of one single-stage correlation matrix are used to aggregate to basin, regional, and national scales.

Cruel Intentions? HIV Prevalence and Criminalization During an Age of Mass Incarceration, U.S. 1999 to 2012

PubMed Central

Sykes, Bryan L.; Hoppe, Trevor A.; Maziarka, Kristen D.

2016-01-01

Abstract A 2014 U.S. Department of Justice Best Practices Report advocates that states eliminate HIV-specific criminal penalties except under 2 conditions: when a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive person intentionally commits a sex crime or transmits the virus by engaging in behavior that poses a significant risk of transmission, regardless of actual transmission. We assess the premise of these exceptions to understand whether these best practices are based on scientific evidence about the population at risk of infection and the risk of sexual violence by HIV-positive individuals. We employ nationally representative, cross-sectional survey data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Inmates in State, Federal, and Local Jails (SISFLJ), and the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES). Data from the CPS, SISFLJ, and NHANES are weighted and combined to analyze bias in the population at risk of HIV. Linear probability models are employed to estimate the likelihood that HIV-positive inmates are incarcerated for violent or sexual offenses, net of socioeconomic factors. We find significant measurement bias in HIV prevalence rates. The selection of national surveys for population denominators distorts contemporary estimates of HIV prevalence by 7% to 20%. Our findings also illustrate that HIV-positive inmates are 10 percentage-points less likely to be incarcerated for violent offenses than HIV-negative inmates. National best practice guidelines may undermine effective social policy that aims to curtail stigma within HIV-positive communities because scientific evidence neither include inmates into prevalence denominators (as a measure of the population at risk) nor assess the likelihood that HIV-positive inmates commit violent or sexual crimes. PMID:27100418

Prevalence and Sociodemographic Correlates of Spiritual Healer Use: Findings from the National Survey of American Life

PubMed Central

Levin, Jeff; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Chatters, Linda M.

2011-01-01

Summary Objectives This study investigates sociodemographic and health-related correlates of use of a spiritual healer for medical help. A large national, multiracial-multiethnic data source permits a more comprehensive investigation than was possible in previous studies. It also enables a closer focus on socioeconomic disadvantage and health need as determinants of utilization. Design and setting Respondents are from the National Survey of American Life: Coping with Stress in the 21st Century (NSAL), a nationally representative multi-stage area-probability survey of U.S. adult African Americans, Caribbean Blacks, and non-Hispanic Whites conducted from 2001-2003. The sample contains 6,082 adults aged 18 and over. Main outcome measures NSAL respondents were surveyed about lifetime use of alternative providers for medical care or advice. Response categories included two types of spiritual healers: faith healers and psychics. These outcomes were logistically regressed, separately, onto 10 sociodemographic or health-related indicators: race/ethnicity, age, gender, marital status, education, household income, region, medical care use, insurance coverage, and self-rated health. Results Lifetime utilization of a faith healer is more prevalent among respondents in good health and less prevalent among Caribbean Blacks and never married persons. Users of a psychic healer are more likely to be educated, residents of the Northeast or West, and previously married, and less likely to report excellent health. Conclusions Use a spiritual healer is not due, on average, to poor education, marginal racial/ethnic or socioeconomic status, dire health straits, or lack of other healthcare options. To some extent, the opposite appears to be true. Use of a spiritual healer is not associated with fewer social and personal resources or limitations in health or healthcare. PMID:21549256

Prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of spiritual healer use: findings from the National Survey of American Life.

PubMed

Levin, Jeff; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Chatters, Linda M

2011-04-01

This study investigates sociodemographic and health-related correlates of use of a spiritual healer for medical help. A large national, multiracial-multiethnic data source permits a more comprehensive investigation than was possible in previous studies. It also enables a closer focus on socioeconomic disadvantage and health need as determinants of utilization. Respondents are from the National Survey of American Life: Coping with Stress in the 21st Century (NSAL), a nationally representative multi-stage area-probability survey of U.S. adult African Americans, Caribbean Blacks, and non-Hispanic Whites conducted from 2001 to 2003. The sample contains 6082 adults aged 18 and over. NSAL respondents were surveyed about lifetime use of alternative providers for medical care or advice. Response categories included two types of spiritual healers: faith healers and psychics. These outcomes were logistically regressed, separately, onto 10 sociodemographic or health-related indicators: race/ethnicity, age, gender, marital status, education, household income, region, medical care use, insurance coverage, and self-rated health. Lifetime utilization of a faith healer is more prevalent among respondents in good health and less prevalent among Caribbean Blacks and never married persons. Users of a psychic healer are more likely to be educated, residents of the Northeast or West, and previously married, and less likely to report excellent health. Use a spiritual healer is not due, on average, to poor education, marginal racial/ethnic or socioeconomic status, dire health straits, or lack of other healthcare options. To some extent, the opposite appears to be true. Use of a spiritual healer is not associated with fewer social and personal resources or limitations in health or healthcare. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National and regional trends in water-well drilling in the United States, 1964-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hindall, S.M.; Eberle, Michael

1989-01-01

Information on national and regional water-well drilling activity is important for water-resource planning and management and for water-related equipment marketing. This report describes a study to analyze drilling trends on the basis of data for selected years from 1964 through 1984. The study focused primarily on the years 1964 and 1980-84 but also included data from 1960. Approximately 397,000 water wells were drilled in the United States in 1984. Seven States, Florida, Texas, New York, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, accounted for 39 percent of all the wells drilled in the United States in 1984. Florida led the Nation in drilling activity with 45,600 new wells. The 1984 national drilling total was 2.6 percent greater than the total for 1980 (387,000) and 8.5 percent less than the total for 1964 (434,000). However, these moderate differences do not reflect substantial year-to-year fluctuations that may have occurred during that 20-year period. Qualitative comparisons suggest that drilling activity for a given year is closely related to the number of housing starts for that year. If so, there may have been peaks in drilling activity in 1972 and 1977-78 (corresponding to peaks in housing starts) that are not identified in this study because of a lack of available well-drilling data for those years. Well-drilling data for 1964 and the 1980-84 period probably represent a low to moderate level of drilling activity and, if compared to earlier data, suggest that there has been no substantial growth or decline in the water-well industry as a whole since the 1940's.

National and regional trends in water-well drilling in the United States, 1964-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hindall, S.M.; Eberle, Michael

1987-01-01

Information on national and regional water well drilling activity is important for water resource planning and management and for water related equipment marketing. A study was conducted to analyze drilling trends on the basis of data for selected years from 1964 through 1984. The study focused primarily on the years 1964 and 1980-84, but also included data from 1960. Approximately 397,000 water wells were drilled in the United States in 1984. Seven states--Florida, Texas, New York, Michigan , North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio--accounted for 39% of all the wells drilled in the United States in 1984. Florida led the nation in drilling activity with 45,600 new wells. The 1984 national drilling total was 2.6% > the total for 1980 (387,000) and 8.5% < the total for 1964 (434,000). However, these moderate differences do not reflect substantial year-to-year fluctuations that may have occurred during that 20-yr period. Qualitative comparisons suggest that drilling activity for a given year is closely related to the number of housing starts for that year. If so, there may have been peaks in drilling activity in 1972 and 1977-78 (corresponding to peaks in housing starts) that are not identified in this study because of a lack of available well drilling data for those years. Well drilling data for 1964 and the 1980-84 period probably represent a low to moderate level of drilling activity, and, if compared to earlier data, suggest that there has been no substantial growth or decline in the water well industry as a whole since the 1940's. (Author 's abstract)

An Alternative Default Soil Organic Carbon Method for National GHG Inventory Reporting to the UNFCCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; Gurung, R.; Klepfer, A.; Spencer, S.; Breidt, J.

2016-12-01

Estimating soil organic C stocks is challenging because of the large amount of data needed to evaluate the impact of land use and management on this terrestrial C pool. Moreover, some of the required data are rarely collected by governments through surveys programs, and are not typically available in remote sensing products. Examples include data on organic amendments, cover crops, crop rotation sequences, vegetated fallows, and fertilization practices. Due to these difficulties, only about 20% of the countries report soil organic C stock changes in their national communications to the UNFCCC. Yet, C sequestration in soils represents one of the least expensive options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and has the largest potential for mitigation in the agricultural sector. In order to facilitate reporting, we developed an alternative approach to the current default method provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for estimating soil organic C stock changes in mineral soils. The alternative method estimates the steady-state C stocks for a three pool model given annual crop yields or net primary production as the main input, along with monthly average temperature, total precipitation and soil texture data. Yield data are commonly available in a national agricultural census, and global datasets exists with adequate data for weather and soil texture if national datasets are not available. Tillage and irrigation data are also needed to address the impact of these practices on decomposition rates. The change in steady-state stocks is assumed to occur over a few decades. A Bayesian analysis framework has been developed to derive probability distribution functions for the parameters, and the method is being applied in a global analysis of soil organic carbon stock changes.

Cross-Sectional Relationships of Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior With Cognitive Function in Older Adults With Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Falck, Ryan S; Landry, Glenn J; Best, John R; Davis, Jennifer C; Chiu, Bryan K; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2017-10-01

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) represents a transition between normal cognitive aging and dementia and may represent a critical time frame for promoting cognitive health through behavioral strategies. Current evidence suggests that physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior are important for cognition. However, it is unclear whether there are differences in PA and sedentary behavior between people with probable MCI and people without MCI or whether the relationships of PA and sedentary behavior with cognitive function differ by MCI status. The aims of this study were to examine differences in PA and sedentary behavior between people with probable MCI and people without MCI and whether associations of PA and sedentary behavior with cognitive function differed by MCI status. This was a cross-sectional study. Physical activity and sedentary behavior in adults dwelling in the community (N = 151; at least 55 years old) were measured using a wrist-worn actigraphy unit. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment was used to categorize participants with probable MCI (scores of <26/30) and participants without MCI (scores of ≥26/30). Cognitive function was indexed using the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive-Plus (ADAS-Cog Plus). Physical activity and sedentary behavior were compared based on probable MCI status, and relationships of ADAS-Cog Plus with PA and sedentary behavior were examined by probable MCI status. Participants with probable MCI (n = 82) had lower PA and higher sedentary behavior than participants without MCI (n = 69). Higher PA and lower sedentary behavior were associated with better ADAS-Cog Plus performance in participants without MCI (β = -.022 and β = .012, respectively) but not in participants with probable MCI (β < .001 for both). This study was cross-sectional and therefore could not establish whether conversion to MCI attenuated the relationships of PA and sedentary behavior with cognitive function. The diagnosis of MCI was not confirmed with a physician; therefore, this study could not conclude how many of the participants categorized as having probable MCI would actually have been diagnosed with MCI by a physician. Participants with probable MCI were less active and more sedentary. The relationships of these behaviors with cognitive function differed by MCI status; associations were found only in participants without MCI. © 2017 American Physical Therapy Association

Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

PubMed

Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

2015-10-07

Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Comments on the use of the "life-table method" in orthopedics].

PubMed

Hassenpflug, J; Hahne, H J; Hedderich, J

1992-01-01

In the description of long term results, e.g. of joint replacements, survivorship analysis is used increasingly in orthopaedic surgery. The survivorship analysis is more useful to describe the frequency of failure rather than global statements in percentage. The relative probability of failure for fixed intervals is drawn from the number of controlled patients and the frequency of failure. The complementary probabilities of success are linked in their temporal sequence thus representing the probability of survival at a fixed endpoint. Necessary condition for the use of this procedure is the exact definition of moment and manner of failure. It is described how to establish survivorship tables.

Normal probabilities for Vandenberg AFB wind components - monthly reference periods for all flight azimuths, 0- to 70-km altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falls, L. W.

1975-01-01

Vandenberg Air Force Base (AFB), California, wind component statistics are presented to be used for aerospace engineering applications that require component wind probabilities for various flight azimuths and selected altitudes. The normal (Gaussian) distribution is presented as a statistical model to represent component winds at Vandenberg AFB. Head tail, and crosswind components are tabulated for all flight azimuths for altitudes from 0 to 70 km by monthly reference periods. Wind components are given for 11 selected percentiles ranging from 0.135 percent to 99.865 percent for each month. The results of statistical goodness-of-fit tests are presented to verify the use of the Gaussian distribution as an adequate model to represent component winds at Vandenberg AFB.

Normal probabilities for Cape Kennedy wind components: Monthly reference periods for all flight azimuths. Altitudes 0 to 70 kilometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falls, L. W.

1973-01-01

This document replaces Cape Kennedy empirical wind component statistics which are presently being used for aerospace engineering applications that require component wind probabilities for various flight azimuths and selected altitudes. The normal (Gaussian) distribution is presented as an adequate statistical model to represent component winds at Cape Kennedy. Head-, tail-, and crosswind components are tabulated for all flight azimuths for altitudes from 0 to 70 km by monthly reference periods. Wind components are given for 11 selected percentiles ranging from 0.135 percent to 99,865 percent for each month. Results of statistical goodness-of-fit tests are presented to verify the use of the Gaussian distribution as an adequate model to represent component winds at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

REGIONAL AND STATE VIEWS OF ESTURAINE CONDITION IN NORTHEAST US BASED ON 2000 AND 2001 COASTAL ASSESSMENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Coastal Assessment (NCA) is a probability-based survey that permits assessment of estuarine conditions at national, regional, or large-system scales. Additionally, states may use these data to comply with requirements of the Clean Water Act (CWA), which mandates re...

Towards national mapping of aquatic condition (II): Predicting the probable biological condition of USA streams and rivers

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s National River and Stream Assessment (NRSA) uses spatially balanced sampling to estimate the proportion of streams within the conterminous US (CONUS) that deviate from least-disturbed biological condition (BC). These assessments do not infer BC at un-sampled st...

Determination of photon emission probabilities for the main gamma-rays of ²²³Ra in equilibrium with its progeny.

PubMed

Pibida, L; Zimmerman, B; Fitzgerald, R; King, L; Cessna, J T; Bergeron, D E

2015-07-01

The currently published (223)Ra gamma-ray emission probabilities display a wide variation in the values depending on the source of the data. The National Institute of Standards and Technology performed activity measurements on a (223)Ra solution that was used to prepare several sources that were used to determine the photon emission probabilities for the main gamma-rays of (223)Ra in equilibrium with its progeny. Several high purity germanium (HPGe) detectors were used to perform the gamma-ray spectrometry measurements. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prevalence, Incidence, Prognosis, Early Stroke Risk, and Stroke-Related Prognostic Factors of Definite or Probable Transient Ischemic Attacks in China, 2013

PubMed Central

Jiang, Bin; Sun, Haixin; Ru, Xiaojuan; Sun, Dongling; Chen, Zhenghong; Liu, Hongmei; Li, Yichong; Zhang, Mei; Wang, Limin; Wang, Linhong; Wu, Shengping; Wang, Wenzhi

2017-01-01

The epidemiological characteristics of transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) in China are unclear. In 2013, we conducted a nationally representative, door-to-door epidemiological survey on TIA in China using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design. Results showed that the weighted prevalence of TIA in China was 103.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 83.9–127.2] per 100,000 in the population, 92.4 (75.0–113.8) per 100,000 among men, and 114.7 (87.2–151.0) per 100,000 among women. The weighted incidence of TIA was 23.9 (17.8–32.0) per 100,000 in the population, 21.3 (14.3–31.5) per 100,000 among men, and 26.6 (17.0–41.7) per 100,000 among women. No difference in average prognosis was found between TIA and stroke in the population. Weighted risk of stroke among TIA patients was 9.7% (6.5–14.3%), 11.1% (7.5–16.1%), and 12.3% (8.4–17.7%) at 2, 30, and 90 days, respectively. The risk of stroke was higher among male patients with a history of TIA than among female patients with a history of TIA (OR: 2.469; 95% CI: 1.172–5.201; P = 0.018), and higher among TIA patients with hypertension than among TIA patients without hypertension (OR: 2.671; 1.547–4.613; P < 0.001). It can be concluded that there are an estimated 1.35 million TIA patients nationwide, with 0.31 million new cases of TIA annually in China. TIA patients were not better managed prior to a stroke event. Early risk of stroke among TIA patients is high. Sex and hypertension may be stroke-associated prognostic factors among TIA patients. TIA clinics and surveillance should be integrated into the national health-care system. PMID:28713329

Estimating the cost of informal caregiving for elderly patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hayman, J A; Langa, K M; Kabeto, M U; Katz, S J; DeMonner, S M; Chernew, M E; Slavin, M B; Fendrick, A M

2001-07-01

As the United States population ages, the increasing prevalence of cancer is likely to result in higher direct medical and nonmedical costs. Although estimates of the associated direct medical costs exist, very little information is available regarding the prevalence, time, and cost associated with informal caregiving for elderly cancer patients. To estimate these costs, we used data from the first wave (1993) of the Asset and Health Dynamics (AHEAD) Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of people aged 70 or older. Using a multivariable, two-part regression model to control for differences in health and functional status, social support, and sociodemographics, we estimated the probability of receiving informal care, the average weekly number of caregiving hours, and the average annual caregiving cost per case (assuming an average hourly wage of $8.17) for subjects who reported no history of cancer (NC), having a diagnosis of cancer but not receiving treatment for their cancer in the last year (CNT), and having a diagnosis of cancer and receiving treatment in the last year (CT). Of the 7,443 subjects surveyed, 6,422 (86%) reported NC, 718 (10%) reported CNT, and 303 (4%) reported CT. Whereas the adjusted probability of informal caregiving for those respondents reporting NC and CNT was 26%, it was 34% for those reporting CT (P <.05). Those subjects reporting CT received an average of 10.0 hours of informal caregiving per week, as compared with 6.9 and 6.8 hours for those who reported NC and CNT, respectively (P <.05). Accordingly, cancer treatment was associated with an incremental increase of 3.1 hours per week, which translates into an additional average yearly cost of $1,200 per patient and just over $1 billion nationally. Informal caregiving costs are substantial and should be considered when estimating the cost of cancer treatment in the elderly.

Ever-Use and Curiosity About Cigarettes, Cigars, Smokeless Tobacco, and Electronic Cigarettes Among US Middle and High School Students, 2012–2014

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Elisabeth A.; King, Brian A.

2016-01-01

Introduction Among young people, curiosity about tobacco products is a primary reason for tobacco experimentation and is a risk factor for future use. We examined whether curiosity about and ever-use of tobacco products among US middle and high school students changed from 2012 to 2014. Methods Data came from the 2012 and 2014 National Youth Tobacco Surveys, nationally representative surveys of US students in grades 6 through 12. For cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, and e-cigarettes (2014 only), students were classified as ever-users or never-users of each product. Among never-users, curiosity about using each product was assessed by asking participants if they had “definitely,” “probably,” “probably not,” or “definitely not” been curious about using the product. Results From 2012 to 2014, there were declines in ever-use of cigarettes (26% to 22%; P = .005) and cigars (21% to 18%; P = .003) overall and among students who were Hispanic (cigarettes, P = .001; cigars, P = .001) or black (cigarettes, P = .004; cigars, P = .01). The proportion of never-users reporting they were “definitely not” curious increased for cigarettes (51% to 54%; P = .01) and cigars (60% to 63%; P = .03). Ever-use and curiosity about smokeless tobacco did not change significantly from 2012 to 2014. In 2014, the proportion of young people who were “definitely” or “probably” curious never-users of each product was as follows: cigarettes, 11.4%; e-cigarettes, 10.8%; cigars, 10.3%; and smokeless tobacco, 4.4%. Conclusion The proportion of US students who are never users and are not curious about cigarettes and cigars increased. However, many young people remain curious about tobacco products, including e-cigarettes. Understanding factors driving curiosity can inform tobacco use prevention for youth. PMID:27657506