Thirty Years of Improving the NCEP Global Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, G. H.; Manikin, G.; Yang, F.

2014-12-01

Current eight day forecasts by the NCEP Global Forecast System are as accurate as five day forecasts 30 years ago. This revolution in weather forecasting reflects increases in computer power, improvements in the assimilation of observations, especially satellite data, improvements in model physics, improvements in observations and international cooperation and competition. One important component has been and is the diagnosis, evaluation and reduction of systematic errors. The effect of proposed improvements in the GFS on systematic errors is one component of the thorough testing of such improvements by the Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch. Examples of reductions in systematic errors in zonal mean temperatures and winds and other fields will be presented. One challenge in evaluating systematic errors is uncertainty in what reality is. Model initial states can be regarded as the best overall depiction of the atmosphere, but can be misleading in areas of few observations or for fields not well observed such as humidity or precipitation over the oceans. Verification of model physics is particularly difficult. The Environmental Modeling Center emphasizes the evaluation of systematic biases against observations. Recently EMC has placed greater emphasis on synoptic evaluation and on precipitation, 2-meter temperatures and dew points and 10 meter winds. A weekly EMC map discussion reviews the performance of many models over the United States and has helped diagnose and alleviate significant systematic errors in the GFS, including a near surface summertime evening cold wet bias over the eastern US and a multi-week period when the GFS persistently developed bogus tropical storms off Central America. The GFS exhibits a wet bias for light rain and a dry bias for moderate to heavy rain over the continental United States. Significant changes to the GFS are scheduled to be implemented in the fall of 2014. These include higher resolution, improved physics and

Next Generation Community Based Unified Global Modeling System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with unified model development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales. Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The unified modeling system is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization. This talk presents the current and future plans of unified model development at NCEP for weather, sub-seasonal, and seasonal climate prediction applications with special

NCEP Model Verification

Science.gov Websites

daily and monthly statistics. The daily and monthly verification processing is broken down into three geopotential height and wind using daily statistics from the gdas1 prepbufr files at 00Z; 06Z; 12Z; and, 18Z Hemisphere; the Southern Hemisphere; and the Tropics. Daily S1 scores from the GFS and NAM models are

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Cheng, A.

2017-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity, and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation, and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, comparatively few new prognostic variables needs to be introduced, making the technique computationally efficient. In the base version of SHOC it is SGS turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and in the developmental version — SGS TKE, and variances of total water and moist static energy (MSE). SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS that will become a part of the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System based around NOAA GFDL's FV3 dynamical core, NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) coupled modeling infrastructure software, and a set novel physical parameterizations. Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these quantities. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC. An outstanding problem with implementation of SHOC in the NCEP global models is excessively large high level tropical cloudiness. Comparison of the moments of the SGS PDF diagnosed by SHOC to the moments calculated in a GigaLES simulation of tropical deep convection case (GATE), shows that SHOC diagnoses too narrow PDF distributions of total cloud water and MSE in the areas of deep convective detrainment. A subsequent sensitivity study of SHOC's diagnosed cloud fraction (CF) to higher order input moments of the SGS PDF

EMC: Verification

Science.gov Websites

, GFS, RAP, HRRR, HIRESW, SREF mean, International Global Models, HPC analysis Precipitation Skill Scores : 1995-Present NAM, GFS, NAM CONUS nest, International Models EMC Forecast Verfication Stats: NAM ) Real Time Verification of NCEP Operational Models against observations Real Time Verification of NCEP

A Preliminary Evaluation of the GFS Physics in the Navy Global Environmental Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Langland, R.; Martini, M.; Viner, K.

2017-12-01

Global extended long-range weather forecast is a goal in the near future at Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). In an effort to improve the performance of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) operated at FNMOC, and to gain more understanding of the impact of atmospheric physics in the long-range forecast, the physics package of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is being evaluated in the framework of NAVGEM. That is GFS physics being transported by NAVGEM Semi-Lagrangian Semi-Implicit advection, and update-cycled by the 4D-variational data assimilation along with the assimilated land surface data of NASA's Land Information System. The output of free long runs of 10-day GFS physics forecast in a summer and a winter season are evaluated through the comparisons with the output of NAVGEM physics long forecast, and through the validations with observations and with the European Center's analyses data. It is found that the GFS physics is able to effectively reduce some of the modeling biases of NAVGEM, especially wind speed of the troposphere and land surface temperature that is an important surface boundary condition. The bias corrections increase with forecast leads, reaching maximum at 240 hours. To further understand the relative roles of physics and dynamics in extended long-range forecast, the tendencies of physics components and advection are also calculated and analyzed to compare their forces of magnitudes in the integration of winds, temperature, and moisture. The comparisons reveal the strength and limitation of GFS physics in the overall improvement of NAVGEM prediction system.

Evaluation of the land surface water budget in NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses using an off-line hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Edwin P.; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Roads, John O.

2001-08-01

The ability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (NRA1) and the follow-up NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (NRA2), to reproduce the hydrologic budgets over the Mississippi River basin is evaluated using a macroscale hydrology model. This diagnosis is aided by a relatively unconstrained global climate simulation using the NCEP global spectral model, and a more highly constrained regional climate simulation using the NCEP regional spectral model, both employing the same land surface parameterization (LSP) as the reanalyses. The hydrology model is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature. It reproduces observed streamflow, and by closure is constrained to balance other terms in the surface water and energy budgets. The VIC-simulated surface fluxes therefore provide a benchmark for evaluating the predictions from the reanalyses and the climate models. The comparisons, conducted for the 10-year period 1988-1997, show the well-known overestimation of summer precipitation in the southeastern Mississippi River basin, a consistent overestimation of evapotranspiration, and an underprediction of snow in NRA1. These biases are generally lower in NRA2, though a large overprediction of snow water equivalent exists. NRA1 is subject to errors in the surface water budget due to nudging of modeled soil moisture to an assumed climatology. The nudging and precipitation bias alone do not explain the consistent overprediction of evapotranspiration throughout the basin. Another source of error is the gravitational drainage term in the NCEP LSP, which produces the majority of the model's reported runoff. This may contribute to an overprediction of persistence of surface water anomalies in much of the basin. Residual evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric balance of NRA1, which is more directly related to observed

OBSERVATIONAL DATA PROCESSING AT NCEP

Science.gov Websites

operations, but also for research and study. 2. The various NCEP networks access the observational data base Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar / VISION | About EMC Observational Data Processing at NCEP Dennis Keyser - NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC (Last Revised

NCEP Decoder Web Site

Science.gov Websites

: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

Guide to GFS History File Change on May 1, 2007

Science.gov Websites

Guide to GFS History File Change on May 1, 2007 On May 1, 2007 12Z, the GFS had a major change. The change caused the internal binary GFS history file to change formats. The file is still in spectral space but now pressure is calculated in a different way. Sometime in the future, the GFS history file may be

Establishing the Common Community Physics Package by Transitioning the GFS Physics to a Collaborative Software Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Firl, G.; Zhang, M.; Jimenez, P. A.; Gill, D.; Carson, L.; Bernardet, L.; Brown, T.; Dudhia, J.; Nance, L. B.; Stark, D. R.

2017-12-01

The Global Model Test Bed (GMTB) has been established to support the evolution of atmospheric physical parameterizations in NCEP global modeling applications. To accelerate the transition to the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a collaborative model development framework known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) is created within the GMTB to facilitate engagement from the broad community on physics experimentation and development. A key component to this Research to Operation (R2O) software framework is the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) that hooks the physics parameterizations from one end to the dynamical cores on the other end with minimum implementation effort. To initiate the CCPP, scientists and engineers from the GMTB separated and refactored the GFS physics. This exercise demonstrated the process of creating IPD-compliant code and can serve as an example for other physics schemes to do the same and be considered for inclusion into the CCPP. Further benefits to this process include run-time physics suite configuration and considerably reduced effort for testing modifications to physics suites through GMTB's physics test harness. The implementation will be described and the preliminary results will be presented at the conference.

Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

Laboratory Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) by JL Cogan...analysis. As expected, accuracy generally tended to decline as the large-scale data aged , but appeared to improve slightly as the age of the large...19 Table 7 Minimum and maximum mean RMDs for each WRF time (or GFS data age ) category. Minimum and

NCEP ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS

Science.gov Websites

://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/ The links to the various Forecast Plots are listed under Experimental Data on the new GEFS page. This NCEP Ensemble Home Page is a collection of experimental analysis and forecast products

NCEP Central Operations

Science.gov Websites

Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library NCO's MISSION * Execute the NCEP operational model suite - Create climate, weather, ocean, space and ) NCO Organizational Chart NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System is known as

6th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop

Science.gov Websites

5th Ensemble Users Workshop pdf<> Discussion Hogsett/Bright pdf Session 2: NCEP Centers Review Chair: Jun Du Israel Jirak NCEP SPC's Review pdf David Bright NCEP AWC's Review pdf Wallace Hogsett NCEP WPC's Review pdf Joseph Sienkiewicz NCEP OPC's Review pdf Dave Unger NCEP CPC's Review pdf<>

Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, C. R.; Szunyogh, I.; Gyarmati, G.; Hoffman, R. N.; Leidner, M.

2011-12-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations over oceans. The data assimilation approach that has received the most attention in recent years is Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF). The most attractive feature of the EnKF is that it uses a fully flow-dependent estimate of the error statistics, which can have important benefits for the analysis of rapidly developing TCs. We implement the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter algorithm, a vari- ation of the EnKF, on a reduced-resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to build a coupled global-limited area anal- ysis/forecast system. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that such a system is used for the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclones. We use data from summer 2004 to study eight tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. The benchmark data sets that we use to assess the performance of our system are the NCEP Reanalysis and the NCEP Operational GFS analyses from 2004. These benchmark analyses were both obtained by the Statistical Spectral Interpolation, which was the operational data assimilation system of NCEP in 2004. The GFS Operational analysis assimilated a large number of satellite radiance observations in addition to the observations assimilated in our system. All analyses are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Best Track data set. The errors are calculated for the position and intensity of the TCs. The global component of the ensemble-based system shows improvement in po- sition analysis over the NCEP Reanalysis, but shows no significant difference from the NCEP operational analysis for most of the storm tracks. The regional com- ponent of our system improves position analysis over all the global

Applications For Real Time NOMADS At NCEP To Disseminate NOAA's Operational Model Data Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.; Rutledge, G.

2007-05-01

A wide range of environmental information, in digital form, with metadata descriptions and supporting infrastructure is contained in the NOAA Operational Modeling Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) and its Real Time (RT) project prototype at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NOMADS is now delivering on its goal of a seamless framework, from archival to real time data dissemination for NOAA's operational model data holdings. A process is under way to make NOMADS part of NCEP's operational production of products. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development. In the National Research Council's "Completing the Forecast", Recommendation 3.4 states: "NOMADS should be maintained and extended to include (a) long-term archives of the global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at their native resolution, and (b) re-forecast datasets to facilitate post-processing." As one of many participants of NOMADS, NCEP serves the operational model data base using data application protocol (Open-DAP) and other services for participants to serve their data sets and users to obtain them. Using the NCEP global ensemble data as an example, we show an Open-DAP (also known as DODS) client application that provides a request-and-fulfill mechanism for access to the complex ensemble matrix of holdings. As an example of the DAP service, we show a client application which accesses the Global or Regional Ensemble data set to produce user selected weather element event probabilities. The event probabilities are easily extended over model forecast time to show probability histograms defining the future trend of user selected events. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit only the data necessary for their tasks. Data sets are served by OPeN-DAP allowing commercial clients such as MATLAB or IDL as well as freeware clients

Using Analysis Increments (AI) to Estimate and Correct Systematic Errors in the Global Forecast System (GFS) Online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, K.; Kalnay, E.; Carton, J.; Yang, F.

2017-12-01

Systematic forecast errors, arising from model deficiencies, form a significant portion of the total forecast error in weather prediction models like the Global Forecast System (GFS). While much effort has been expended to improve models, substantial model error remains. The aim here is to (i) estimate the model deficiencies in the GFS that lead to systematic forecast errors, (ii) implement an online correction (i.e., within the model) scheme to correct GFS following the methodology of Danforth et al. [2007] and Danforth and Kalnay [2008, GRL]. Analysis Increments represent the corrections that new observations make on, in this case, the 6-hr forecast in the analysis cycle. Model bias corrections are estimated from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6-hr, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012-2016, seasonal means of the 6-hr model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the sub-monthly analysis increments and consists primarily of diurnal and semidiurnal components, also requiring a low dimensional correction. Analysis increments in 2015 and 2016 are reduced over oceans, which is attributed to improvements in the specification of the SSTs. These results encourage application of online correction, as suggested by Danforth and Kalnay, for mean, seasonal and diurnal and semidiurnal model biases in GFS to reduce both systematic and random errors. As the error growth in the short-term is still linear, estimated model bias corrections can be added as a forcing term in the model tendency equation to correct online. Preliminary experiments with GFS, correcting temperature and specific humidity online show reduction in model bias in 6-hr forecast. This approach can then be used to guide and optimize the design of sub

NCEP/NLDAS Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Ek, M.; Wood, E.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Livneh, B.; Cosgrove, B.; Mocko, D.; Meng, J.; Wei, H.; Restrepo, P.; Schaake, J.; Mo, K.

2009-05-01

The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas) to monitor and predict the drought over the Continental United States (CONUS). The realtime NLDAS drought monitor, executed daily at NCEP/EMC, including daily, weekly and monthly anomaly and percentile of six fields (soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation, precipitation) outputted from four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, SAC, and VIC) on a common 1/8th degree grid using common hourly land surface forcing. The non-precipitation surface forcing is derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR). The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies a Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using radar and satellite precipitation. The NARR- based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite- derived solar radiation retrievals. The uncoupled ensemble seasonal drought prediction utilizes the following three independent approaches for generating downscaled ensemble seasonal forecasts of surface forcing: (1) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, (2) CPC Official Seasonal Climate Outlook, and (3) NCEP CFS ensemble dynamical model prediction. For each of these three approaches, twenty ensemble members of forcing realizations are generated using a Bayesian merging algorithm developed by Princeton University. The three forcing methods are then used to drive the VIC model in seasonal prediction mode over thirteen large river basins that together span the CONUS domain. One to nine month ensemble seasonal prediction products

Inventory of GFS Files on NOMADS

Science.gov Websites

Inventory of GFS Files on NOMADS GRIB Filter options Description Filename Cycles Available 0.25 .fFFF 00,06,12,18 UTC OPeNDAP options Description Filename Cycles Available 0.25 Degree (3 hourly to 240

The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) - Naval

Science.gov Websites

Prediction Charts (EFS). WxMAP depictions of NAVGEM predictions for side-by-side comparison with NCEP global NWP model (GFS) are also available. Oceanography Products This area provides Global & Regional

Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-01-01

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

SW radiative effect of aerosol in GRAPES_GFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qiying

2017-04-01

The aerosol particles can scatter and absorb solar radiation, and so change the shortwave radiation absorbed by the atmosphere, reached the surface and that reflected back to outer space at TOA. Since this process doesn't interact with other processes, it is called direct radiation effect. The clear sky downward SW and net SW fluxes at the surface in GRAPES_GFS of China Meteorological Administration are overestimated in Northern multitudes and Tropics. The main source of these errors is the absence of aerosol SW effect in GRAPES_GFS. The climatic aerosol mass concentration data, which include 13 kinds of aerosol and their 14 SW bands optical properties are considered in GRAPES_GFS. The calculated total optical depth, single scatter albedo and asymmetry factor are used as the input to radiation scheme. Compared with the satellite observation from MISER, the calculated total optical depth is in good consistent. The seasonal experiments show that, the summer averaged clear sky radiation fluxes at the surface are improved after including the SW effect of aerosol. The biases in the clear sky downward SW and net SW fluxes at the surface in Northern multitudes and Tropic reduced obviously. Furthermore, the weather forecast experiments also show that the skill scores in Northern hemisphere and East Asia also become better.

Spin-up simulation behaviors in a climate model to build a basement of long-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Xue, Y.; De Sales, F.

2015-12-01

It is essential to develop start-up information when conducting long-time climate simulation. In case that the initial condition is already available from the previous simulation of same type model this does not necessary; however, if not, model needs spin-up simulation to have adjusted and balanced initial condition with the model climatology. Otherwise, a severe spin may take several years. Some of model variables such as deep soil temperature fields and temperature in ocean deep layers in initial fields would affect model's further long-time simulation due to their long residual memories. To investigate the important factor for spin-up simulation in producing an atmospheric initial condition, we had conducted two different spin-up simulations when no atmospheric condition is available from exist datasets. One simulation employed atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), namely Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), while the other employed atmosphere-ocean coupled global circulation model (CGCM), namely Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP. Both models share the atmospheric modeling part and only difference is in applying of ocean model coupling, which is conducted by Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in CFS. During a decade of spin-up simulation, prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) fields of target year is forced to the GFS daily basis, while CFS digested only first time step ocean condition and freely iterated for the rest of the period. Both models were forced by CO2 condition and solar constant given from the target year. Our analyses of spin-up simulation results indicate that freely conducted interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is more helpful to produce the initial condition for the target year rather than produced by fixed SST forcing. Since the GFS used prescribed forcing exactly given from the target year, this result is unexpected

Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

Utility of NCEP Operational and Emerging Meteorological Models for Driving Air Quality Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQueen, J.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Shafran, P.; Lee, P.; Pan, L.; Sleinkofer, A. M.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

Operational air quality predictions for the United States (U. S.) are provided at NOAA by the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). NAQFC provides nationwide operational predictions of ozone and particulate matter twice per day (at 06 and 12 UTC cycles) at 12 km resolution and 1 hour time intervals through 48 hours and distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12 km weather prediction is used to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. In 2017, the NAM was upgraded in part to reduce a warm 2m temperature bias in Summer (V4). At the same time CMAQ was updated to V5.0.2. Both versions of the models were run in parallel for several months. Therefore the impact of improvements from the atmospheric chemistry model versus upgrades with the weather prediction model could be assessed. . Improvements to CMAQ were related to improvements to improvements in NAM 2 m temperature bias through increasing the opacity of clouds and reducing downward shortwave radiation resulted in reduced ozone photolysis. Higher resolution operational NWP models have recently been introduced as part of the NCEP modeling suite. These include the NAM CONUS Nest (3 km horizontal resolution) run four times per day through 60 hours and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, 3 km) run hourly out to 18 hours. In addition, NCEP with other NOAA labs has begun to develop and test the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) based on the FV3 global model. This presentation also overviews recent developments with operational numerical weather prediction and evaluates the ability of these models for predicting low level temperatures, clouds and capturing boundary layer processes important for driving air quality prediction in complex terrain. The assessed meteorological model errors could help determine the magnitude of possible pollutant errors from CMAQ if used

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclogenesis in NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2008-12-01

With the concerns, impacts and consequences of climate change increasing, the need for climate models to simulate daily weather is very important. Given the improvements in resolution and physical parameterizations, climate models are becoming capable of resolving extreme weather events. A particular type of extreme event which has large impacts on transportation, industry and the general public is a rapidly intensifying cyclone referred to as a "bomb." In this study, bombs are investigated using the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. We generate storm tracks based on 6-hourly sea-level pressure (SLP) from long-term climate runs of the CFS model. Investigation of this dataset has revealed that the CFS model is capable of producing bombs. We show a case study of a bomb in the CFS model and demonstrate that it has characteristics similar to the observed. Since the CFS model is capable of producing bombs, future work will focus on trends in their frequency and intensity so that an assessment of the potential role of the bomb in climate change can be assessed.

The NCEP Mission

Science.gov Websites

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City , St Go Search NCEP Go Current Hazards Watches/Warnings Outlooks National Current Conditions

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclone Climatology: Reanalysis vs. NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2009-12-01

Given the concerns and potential impacts of climate change, the need for climate models to simulate weather phenomena is as important as ever. An example of such phenomena is rapidly intensifying cyclones, also known as "bombs." These intense cyclones have devastating effects on residential and marine commercial interests as well as the transportation industry. In this study, we generate a climatology of rapid cyclogenesis using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. Results are compared to NCEP’s global reanalysis data to determine if the CFS model is capable of producing a realistic extreme storm climatology. This represents the first step in quantifying rapidly intensifying cyclones in the CFS model, which will be useful in contributing towards future model improvements, as well as gauging its ability in determining the role of synoptic-scale storms in climate change.

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page

Science.gov Websites

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page The Polar and Great Lakes Ice group works on sea ice analysis from satellite, sea ice modeling, and ice-atmosphere-ocean coupling. Our work supports the Alaska Region of the @noaa.gov Last Modified 2 July 2012 Pages of Interest Analysis Daily Sea Ice Analyses Animations of the

NAME Modeling and Climate Process Team

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Williams, L. N.; Gutzler, D. S.

2007-05-01

NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT) has been established to address the need of linking climate process research to model development and testing activities for warm season climate prediction. The project builds on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of this project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of NAMAP, based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis will bring local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where key physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved. The second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort focused on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including those implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL. Our activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of warm season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the treatment of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that are necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of warm season precipitation These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to ensure technology transfer from research to operations. Results based on experiments conducted with the NCEP CFS GCM will be reported at the conference with emphasis on the impact of horizontal resolution in predicting warm season precipitation over North America.

Development of JPSS VIIRS Global Gridded Vegetation Index products for NOAA NCEP Environmental Modeling Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Marco; Miura, Tomoaki; Csiszar, Ivan; Zheng, Weizhong; Wu, Yihua; Ek, Michael

2017-04-01

The first Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) mission, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, was successfully launched in October, 2011, and it will be followed by JPSS-1, slated for launch in 2017. JPSS provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA's Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). Vegetation products derived from satellite measurements are used for weather forecasting, land modeling, climate research, and monitoring the environment including drought, the health of ecosystems, crop monitoring and forest fires. The operationally produced S-NPP VIIRS Vegetation Index (VI) Environmental Data Record (EDR) includes two vegetation indices: the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Top of the Canopy (TOC) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). For JPSS-1, the S-NPP Vegetation Index EDR algorithm has been updated to include the TOC NDV. The current JPSS operational VI products are generated in granule style at 375 meter resolution at nadir, but these products in granule format cannot be ingested into NOAA operational monitoring and decision making systems. For that reason, the NOAA JPSS Land Team is developing a new global gridded Vegetation Index (VI) product suite for operational use by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new global gridded VIs will be used in the Multi-Physics (MP) version of the Noah land surface model (Noah-MP) in NCEP NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) for plant growth and data assimilation and to describe vegetation coverage and density in order to model the correct surface energy partition. The new VI 4km resolution global gridded products (TOA NDVI, TOC NDVI and TOC EVI) are being designed to meet the needs of directly ingesting vegetation index variables without the need to develop local gridding and compositing procedures. These VI products will be consistent with the already

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert; Drought Working Group, S.

2008-12-01

The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2008-01-01

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Method and Early Results of Applying the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in the Third Global Reanalysis of NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Yang, R.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J.; Xie, P.

2008-05-01

Over the past several years, the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the U.S. National Weather Service has developed a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). For its computational infrastructure, the GLDAS applies the NASA Land Information System (LIS), developed by the Hydrological Science Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The land model utilized in the NCEP GLDAS is the NCEP Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM). This presentation will 1) describe how the GLDAS component has been included in the development of NCEP's third global reanalysis (with special attention to the input sources of global precipitation), and 2) will present results from the GLDAS component of pilot tests of the new NCEP global reanalysis. Unlike NCEP's past two global reanalysis projects, this new NCEP global reanalysis includes both a global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and a global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS). The new global reanalysis will span 30-years (1979-2008) and will include a companion realtime operational component. The atmospheric, ocean, and land states of this global reanalysis will provide the initial conditions for NCEP's 3rd- generation global coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS). NCEP is now preparing to launch a 28-year seasonal reforecast project with its new CFS, to provide the reforecast foundation for operational NCEP seasonal climate forecasts using the new CFS. Together, the new global reanalysis and companion CFS reforecasts constitute what NCEP calls the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. Compared to the previous two generations of NCEP global reanalysis, the hallmark of the GLDAS component of CFSRR is GLDAS use of global analyses of observed precipitation to drive the land surface component of the reanalysis (rather than the typical reanalysis approach of using precipitation from the assimilating background atmospheric model

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m-2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed

A comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) simulation.

PubMed

Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu

2011-06-01

The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

2018-01-01

Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Evaluation of land-surface interaction in ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis models over grassland (FIFE) and boreal forest (BOREAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Viterbo, Pedro; Beljaars, Anton; Pan, Hua-Lu; Hong, Song-You; Goulden, Mike; Wofsy, Steve

1998-09-01

The National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis models are compared with First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE) grassland data from Kansas in 1987 and Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) data from an old black spruce site in 1996 near Thompson, Manitoba. Some aspects of the comparison are similar for the two ecosystems. Over grassland and after snowmelt in the boreal forest, both models represent the seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature well. The two models have quite different soil hydrology components. The ECMWF model includes soil water nudging based on low level humidity errors. While this works quite well for the FIFE grassland, it appears to give too high evaporation over the boreal forest. The NCEP/NCAR model constrains long-term drifts by nudging deep soil water toward climatology. Over the FIFE site, this seems to give too low evaporation in midsummer, while at the BOREAS site, evaporation in this model is high. Both models have some difficulty representing the surface diurnal cycle of humidity. In the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis this leads to errors primarily in June, when the surface boundary layer stays saturated and too much precipitation occurs. In the ECMWF reanalysis there is a morning peak of mixing ratio, which an earlier work showed resulted from too shallow a boundary layer in the morning. Over the northern boreal forest there are important physical processes, which are not represented in either reanalysis model. In particular very high model albedos in spring, when there is snow under the forest canopy, lead to a very low daytime net radiation. This in turn leads to a large underestimate of the daytime surface fluxes, particularly the sensible heat flux, and to daytime model surface temperatures that are as much as 15 K low. In addition, the models do

NCEP BUFR File Structure

Science.gov Websites

. These tables may be defined within a separate ASCII text file (see Description and Format of BUFR Tables time, the BUFR tables are usually read from an external ASCII text file (although it is also possible reports. Click here to view the ASCII text file (called /nwprod/fix/bufrtab.002 on the NCEP CCS machines

A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) Simulation

PubMed Central

Dodla, Venkata B.; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu

2011-01-01

The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina. PMID:21776239

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

NCEP Operational HWRF Forecasting System

Science.gov Websites

NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage EMC Hurricane Team NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS © 2018 | NOAA * NWS * NCEP * EMC * Hurricane Project Team DISCLAIMER: THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL

NCEP BUFRLIB Software User Guide

Science.gov Websites

Integration Branch > Decoders > BUFRLIB BUFRLIB Software User Guide This document set describes how to use the NCEP BUFRLIB software to encode or decode BUFR messages. It is not intended to be a primer on background knowledge of the basic concepts of BUFR and will focus solely on how to use the BUFRLIB software

Using High Resolution Model Data to Improve Lightning Forecasts across Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capps, S. B.; Rolinski, T.

2014-12-01

Dry lightning often results in a significant amount of fire starts in areas where the vegetation is dry and continuous. Meteorologists from the USDA Forest Service Predictive Services' program in Riverside, California are tasked to provide southern and central California's fire agencies with fire potential outlooks. Logistic regression equations were developed by these meteorologists several years ago, which forecast probabilities of lightning as well as lightning amounts, out to seven days across southern California. These regression equations were developed using ten years of historical gridded data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model on a coarse scale (0.5 degree resolution), correlated with historical lightning strike data. These equations do a reasonably good job of capturing a lightning episode (3-5 consecutive days or greater of lightning), but perform poorly regarding more detailed information such as exact location and amounts. It is postulated that the inadequacies in resolving the finer details of episodic lightning events is due to the coarse resolution of the GFS data, along with limited predictors. Stability parameters, such as the Lifted Index (LI), the Total Totals index (TT), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), along with Precipitable Water (PW) are the only parameters being considered as predictors. It is hypothesized that the statistical forecasts will benefit from higher resolution data both in training and implementing the statistical model. We have dynamically downscaled NCEP FNL (Final) reanalysis data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to 3km spatial and hourly temporal resolution across a decade. This dataset will be used to evaluate the contribution to the success of the statistical model of additional predictors in higher vertical, spatial and temporal resolution. If successful, we will implement an operational dynamically downscaled GFS forecast product to generate predictors for the resulting

Monitoring the Global Soil Moisture Climatology Using GLDAS/LIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Gottschalck, J.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture plays a crucial role in the terrestrial water cycle through governing the process of partitioning precipitation among infiltration, runoff and evaporation. Accurate assessment of soil moisture and other land states, namely, soil temperature, snowpack, and vegetation, is critical in numerical environmental prediction systems because of their regulation of surface water and energy fluxes between the surface and atmosphere over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is developed, jointly by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to perform high-quality global land surface simulation using state-of-art land surface models and further minimizing the errors of simulation by constraining the models with observation- based precipitation, and satellite land data assimilation techniques. The GLDAS-based Land Information System (LIS) infrastructure has been installed on the NCEP supercomputer that serves the operational weather and climate prediction systems. In this experiment, the Noah land surface model is offline executed within the GLDAS/LIS infrastructure, driven by the NCEP Global Reanalysis-2 (GR2) and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). We use the same Noah code that is coupled to the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) for weather prediction and test bed versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for seasonal prediction. For assessment, it is crucial that this uncoupled GLDAS/Noah uses exactly the same Noah code (and soil and vegetation parameters therein), and executes with the same horizontal grid, landmask, terrain field, soil and vegetation types, seasonal cycle of green vegetation fraction and surface albedo as in the coupled GFS/Noah and CFS/Noah. This execution is for the 25-year period of 1980-2005, starting with a pre-execution 10-year spin-up. This 25-year GLDAS/Noah global land climatology will be

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to

A semi-Lagrangian advection scheme for radioactive tracers in the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E.-C.; Yoshimura, K.

2015-10-01

In this study, the non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian (NDSL) advection scheme is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to alleviate the Gibbs phenomenon. The Gibbs phenomenon is a problem wherein negative values of positive-definite quantities (e.g., moisture and tracers) are generated by the spectral space transformation in a spectral model system. To solve this problem, the spectral prognostic specific humidity and radioactive tracer advection scheme is replaced by the NDSL advection scheme, which considers advection of tracers in a grid system without spectral space transformations. A regional version of the NDSL is developed in this study and is applied to the RSM. Idealized experiments show that the regional version of the NDSL is successful. The model runs for an actual case study suggest that the NDSL can successfully advect radioactive tracers (iodine-131 and cesium-137) without noise from the Gibbs phenomenon. The NDSL can also remove negative specific humidity values produced in spectral calculations without losing detailed features.

Stratospheric Semi-Decadal Oscillations in NCEP Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Talaat, E. R.; Nash, E. R.; Reddy, C. A.

2008-01-01

An analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data is presented to provide a more complete description of the stratospheric 5-year semi-decadal (SD) oscillation (Mayr et al., 2007). The zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind data from the Atmospheric Research R-1 analysis are employed, covering the years from 1962 to 2002 in the altitude range from 10 to 30km. For diagnostic purposes, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to identify the signatures of the SD oscillations. Through the synthesis or filtering of spectral features, the SD modulations of the annual oscillation (AO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are delineated. In agreement with the earlier findings, the magnitude of the SD oscillation is more pronounced when the 30-month QBO dominates during the years from 1975 to 1995. This is consistent with results from a numerical model, which shows that such a QBO generates the SD oscillation through interaction with the 12-month AO. In the zonal winds, the SD oscillation in the NCEP data is confined to equatorial latitudes, where it modulates the symmetric AO and QBO by about 5 m/s below 30 km. In the temperature data, the effect is also seen around the equator, but it is much larger at polar latitudes where the SD oscillation produces variations as large as 2 K. Our data analysis indicates that the SD oscillation is mainly hemispherically symmetric, and it appears to originate at equatorial latitudes where most of the energy resides.

Trends in the Zonal Winds over the Southern Ocean from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and Scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, J. G.

2002-12-01

The winds over the Southern Ocean for the entire 54-year (1948-2001) period of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis have been decomposed into Principal Components (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). The first EOF describes 83 percent of the variance in the zonal wind. The loading of the EOF shows the predominately westerly surface flow with strongest winds in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. The structure of this EOF is similar to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) identified by Thompson, et al 2000. The amplitude of this EOF reveals a large trend of 4.42 cm/s/yr in the strength of the zonal wind corresponding to a nearly 50 percent increase in the wind stress over the Southern Ocean. Such a trend, if real, would be important in the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Recent studies by Gille, et al. (2001), Olbers and Ivchenko (2001) and Gent et al. (2001) have shown that the transport of the ACC is correlated to the variability in the zonal wind with a monotonic increase in the transport with increasing zonal wind strength. However, errors in the data assimilation scheme for surface pressure observations on the Antarctic continent appears to have caused a spurious trend in the sea level pressure south of 40S of -0.2 hPa/yr (Hines, et al. 2000 and Marshall, 2002). The sea level pressure difference between 40S and 60S has risen by 8 hPa over the same period. This sea level pressure difference is used as a proxy for the strength of the zonal winds. Thus, the trend in the zonal wind EOF amplitude may be an artifact of model errors in the NCEP Reanalysis. To check this trend, we analyzed scatterometer winds over the Southern Ocean from the SEASAT, ERS (1 and 2), NSCAT and QuikScat satellites. The scatterometer data is not used in the NCEP Reanalysis and, thus, is an independent estimate of the winds. The SEASAT Scatterometer (SASS) operated for 90 days in July-September, 1978, while the ERS, NSCAT and QuikScat scatterometers provide a continuous dataset from

Increased statin eligibility based on ACC/AHA versus NCEP guidelines for high cholesterol management in Chile.

PubMed

Echeverría, Guadalupe; Dussaillant, Catalina; Villarroel, Luis; Rigotti, Attilio

2016-01-01

In 2013, the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) jointly released new guidelines for cardiovascular risk assessment and cholesterol management that substantially modified the previous recommendations proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) in 2001. The relative impact of these new guidelines on potential statin use has not been estimated in Latin American populations. To estimate and compare eligibility for statin therapy based on ACC/AHA and NCEP guidelines in adult Chilean population. Using data from the last National Health Survey (2009-2010 NHS), we conducted a cross-sectional analysis in a ​representative sample of the Chilean adult population and calculated the proportion of individuals that would receive statins under each set of guidelines. According to ACC/AHA guidelines, the population eligible for statin treatment increased from 21.7% (NCEP guidelines) to 33.2% (overall 53% increase). This effect was more pronounced among women (29.6% under ACC/AHA vs 15.6% under NCEP) and with those of advanced age (75% of the subjects >60 years of age compared with 46% under NCEP). The newly eligible group included more women and older subjects and individuals with lower LDL cholesterol levels. Compared with NCEP recommendations, the new ACC/AHA guidelines significantly increased the number of Chilean adults eligible for statin therapy. Full implementation of the new recommendations may have important public health implications in Chile and other Latin American countries, as more women and older subjects without cardiovascular disease would qualify for statin treatment. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Kabuchanga, Eric; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.

2014-01-01

SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR-Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land-surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5-deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher-resolution land-surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real-time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.

Climate Prediction Center - NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System:

Science.gov Websites

home page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Monthly in NetCDF Other formats Links NOAA Ocean Climate Observation Program (OCO) Climate Test Bed About Prediction (NCEP) are a valuable community asset for monitoring different aspects of ocean climate

A Diagnosis of Rainfall over South America during the 1997/98 El Niño Event. Part I: Validation of NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Rainfall Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brahmananda Rao, V.; Santo, Clóvis E.; Franchito, Sergio H.

2002-03-01

A comparison between the National Centers for Environmental Predictions-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis rainfall data and the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) rain gauge data over Brazil is made. It is found that over northeast Brazil, NCEP-NCAR rainfall is overestimated. But over south and southeast Brazil, the correlation between the two datasets is highly significant showing the utility of NCEP-NCAR rainfall data. Over other parts of Brazil the validity of NCEP-NCAR rainfall data is questionable. A detailed comparison between NCEP-NCAR rainfall data over northwest South America and rain gauge data showed that NCEP-NCAR rainfall data are useful despite important differences between the characteristics in the two data sources. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data seem to have difficulty in correctly reproducing the strength and orientation of the South Atlantic convergence zone.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

2011-09-01

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12 h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8 hPa, maximum wind error of 12 m s-1and track error of 77 km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.

The GFS Atmospheric Model description

Science.gov Websites

model has only one type of cloud cover represented by C. In the tropics the cloudiness is primarily due mainly through grid-scale condensation. The fractional cloud cover C is available at all model levels , 1996: Parameterizations for the absorption of solar radiation by water vapor and ozone. J. Atmos. Sci

An Assessment of the Potential Predictability of Drought Over the United States Based on Climate Model Simulations with Specified SST

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max; Koster, Randal

2010-01-01

The USCLIV AR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-l, NCEP/GFS, GFDLlAM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3.5. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. To what extent can droughts develop independently of ocean variability due to year-to-year memory that may be inherent to the land. What is the role of the different ocean basins? Here we focus on the potential predictability of drought conditions over the United States. Specific issues addressed include the seasonality and regionality of the signal-to-noise ratios associated with Pacific and Atlantic SST forcing, and the sensitivity of the results to the climatological stationary waves simulated by the different AGCMs.

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation in the NCEP reanalyses: Climatological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huesmann, Amihan S.; Hitchman, Matthew H.

2001-06-01

Global quasi-biennial variation in the lower stratosphere and tropopause region is studied using 41 years (1958-1998) of reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Horizontal wind, temperature, geopotential height, tropopause temperature and pressure fields are used. A new quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indexing method is presented, which is based on the zonal mean zonal wind shear anomaly at the equator and is compared to the Singapore index. A phase difference composting technique provides ``snapshots'' of the QBO meridional-vertical structure as it descends, and ``composite phases'' provide a look at its time progression. Via binning large amounts of data, the first observation-based estimate of the QBO meridional circulation is obtained. High-latitude QBO variability supports previous studies that invoke planetary wave-mean flow interaction as an explanation. The meridional distribution of the range in QBO zonal wind is compared with the stratospheric annual cycle, with the annual cycle dominating poleward of ~12° latitude but still being significant in the deep tropics. The issues of temporal shear zone asymmetries and phase locking with the annual cycle are critically examined. Subtracting the time mean and annual cycle removes ~2/3 of the asymmetry in wind (and wind shear) zone descent rate. The NCEP data validate previous findings that both the easterly and westerly QBO anomalous wind regimes in the lower stratosphere change sign preferentially during northern summer. It is noteworthy that the NCEP QBO amplitude and the relationships among the reanalysed zonal wind, temperature, and meridional circulation undergo a substantial change around 1978.

A stochastic multicloud convective parameterization in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) : implementation and calibration.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A stochastic multicloud (SMCM) cumulus parameterization is implemented in the National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model, named as the CFSsmcm model. We present here results from a systematic attempt to understand the CFSsmcm model's sensitivity to the SMCM parameters. To asses the model-sentivity to the different SMCM parameters, we have analized a set of 14 5-year long climate simulations produced by the CFSsmcm model. The model is found to be resilient to minor changes in the parameter values. The middle tropospheric dryness (MTD) and the stratiform cloud decay timescale are found to be most crucial parameters in the SMCM formulation in the CFSsmcm model.

Multiple Sensitivity Testing for Regional Air Quality Model in summer 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Lee, P.; Pan, L.; Tong, D.; Kim, H. C.; Huang, M.; Wang, J.; McQueen, J.; Lu, C. H.; Artz, R. S.

2015-12-01

The NOAA Air Resources laboratory leads to improve the performance of the U.S. Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). It is operational in NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which focuses on predicting surface ozone and PM2.5. In order to improve its performance, we tested several approaches, including NOAA Environmental Modeling System Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) simulation derived ozone and aerosol lateral boundary conditions (LBC), bi-direction NH3 emission and HMS(Hazard Mapping System)-BlueSky emission with the latest U.S. EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version and the U.S EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI)-2011 anthropogenic emissions. The operational NAQFC uses static profiles for its lateral boundary condition (LBC), which does not impose severe issue for near-surface air quality prediction. However, its degraded performance for the upper layer (e.g. above 3km) is evident when comparing with aircraft measured ozone. NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) has tracer O3 prediction treated as 3-D prognostic variable (Moorthi and Iredell, 1998) after being initialized with Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet-2 (SBUV-2) satellite data. We applied that ozone LBC to the CMAQ's upper layers and yield more reasonable O3 prediction than that with static LBC comparing with the aircraft data in Discover-AQ Colorado campaign. NGAC's aerosol LBC also improved the PM2.5 prediction with more realistic background aerosols. The bi-direction NH3 emission used in CMAQ also help reduce the NH3 and nitrate under-prediction issue. During summer 2014, strong wildfires occurred in northwestern USA, and we used the US Forest Service's BlueSky fire emission with HMS fire counts to drive CMAQ and tested the difference of day-1 and day-2 fire emission estimation. Other related issues were also discussed.

Low-Level Jets and Their Effects on the South American Summer Climate as Simulated by the NCEP Eta Model(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernekar, Anandu D.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Fennessy, Michael J.

2003-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model (80 km, 38L) is used to simulate the tropical South American summer (January-March) climate for 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, and 1991 using lateral boundary conditions from the NCEP-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis. Simulations of the lower tropospheric circulation and precipitation are analyzed to study the variability on diurnal, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales. The results are compared with observations and previous studies.The Eta Model produces better regional circulation details, such as low-level jets (LLJs), than does the reanalysis because of its higher resolution, more realistic topography and coastal geometry, and because of its ability to realistically simulate the effects of mesoscale circulation on the time-mean flow. The model detects not only the LLJ east of the Andes Mountains and the LLJ west of northern Cordillera Occidental, which have been reported in previous studies, but it also detects three distinct LLJs just north of the equator embedded in the strong northeasterly trade winds over Colombia, Venezuela, and Guiana. All the LLJs show strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJ east of the Andes Mountains brings warm moist air from the Amazon basin to the Gran Chaco region where the jet exits. The moisture convergence in the jet exit region creates favorable conditions for precipitation. Hence, the precipitation over the region also shows strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJs just north of the equator bring moisture from the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the western Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Panama to their exit regions over the northern Amazon basin and west coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. The precipitation over these regions also has diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The diurnal variability of precipitation over most of the Tropics has an afternoon rainfall maximum except for regions

The Representation of Extra-tropical Cyclones in Recent Re-Analyses: ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, K.

2010-12-01

Re-analyses are produced using a forecast model, data assimilation system and historical observations. Whilst the observations are common between the re-analyses the way they are assimilated and the forecast model used are often different between the re-analyses which can introduce uncertainty in the representation of particular phenomena between the re-analyses, for example the distribution and properties of weather systems. It is important to inter-compare re-analyses to determine the uncertainty in their representation of the atmosphere, its circulation and weather systems in order to have confidence in their use for studies of the atmosphere and validating climate models. The four recent re-analyses, ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25 are explored and compared for the representation of synoptic scale extra-tropical cyclones. Previous studies of the older re-analyses. ERA40, NCEP-NCAR and DOE has shown that whilst in the NH there was relatively good agreement between the re-analyses in terms of the distribution and properties of extra-tropical cyclones, in the SH there was much larger uncertainty. The newest re-analyses are produced at much higher resolutions than previous re-analyses, in addition more modern data assimilation systems and forecast models have been used. Hence, it would be hoped that the representation of cyclones will be improved to the same extent as that seen in modern NWP systems. This study contrasts extra-tropical cyclones, their distribution and properties, between these new re-analyses and compares them with cyclones in the slightly older though lower resolution JRA25 re-analysis. Results will show that in general in the higher resolution re-analysis more cyclones are identified than in JRA25. In the NH the distribution of storms agrees as well if not better than was the case for the older re-analyses. However, it is in the SH that the largest improvement in agreement is seen for the distribution of storms. For ERA-Interim, NASA

A non-parametric postprocessor for bias-correcting multi-model ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun

2010-05-01

Operational forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables often contain large uncertainties, for which ensemble techniques are increasingly used. However, the utility of ensemble forecasts depends on the unbiasedness of the forecast probabilities. We describe a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, intended for use in operational forecasting. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is often unknown or difficult to model parametrically. The aim is to estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) of the observed variable given a (possibly biased) real-time ensemble forecast from one or several forecasting systems (multi-model ensembles). The technique is based on Bayesian optimal linear estimation of indicator variables, and is analogous to indicator cokriging (ICK) in geostatistics. By developing linear estimators for the conditional expectation of the observed variable at many thresholds, ICK provides a discrete approximation of the full ccdf. Since ICK minimizes the conditional error variance of the indicator expectation at each threshold, it effectively minimizes the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) when infinitely many thresholds are employed. However, the ensemble members used as predictors in ICK, and other bias-correction techniques, are often highly cross-correlated, both within and between models. Thus, we propose an orthogonal transform of the predictors used in ICK, which is analogous to using their principal components in the linear system of equations. This leads to a well-posed problem in which a minimum number of predictors are used to provide maximum information content in terms of the total variance explained. The technique is used to bias-correct precipitation ensemble forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for which independent validation results

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Numerical Prediction for Hurricane Juan (2003)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J.; McTaggart-Cowan, R.

2004-05-01

The range of accuracy of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance for the landfall of Hurricane Juan (2003), from nearly perfect to nearly useless, motivates a study of the NWP forecast errors on 28-29 September 2003 in the eastern North Atlantic. Although the forecasts issued over the period were of very high quality, this is primarily because of the diligence of the forecasters, and not related to the reliability of the numerical predictions provided to them by the North American operational centers and the research community. A bifurcation in the forecast fields from various centers and institutes occurred beginning with the 0000 UTC run of 28 September, and continuing until landfall just after 0000 UTC on 29 September. The GFS (NCEP), Eta (NCEP), GEM (Canadian Meteorological Centre; CMC), and MC2 (McGill) forecast models all showed an extremely weak (minimum SLP above 1000 hPa) remnant vortex moving north-northwestward into the Gulf of Maine and merging with a diabatically-developed surface low offshore. The GFS uses a vortex-relocation scheme, the Eta a vortex bogus, and the GEM and MC2 are run on CMC analyses that contain no enhanced vortex. The UK Met Office operational, the GFDL, and the NOGAPS (US Navy) forecast models all ran a small-scale hurricane-like vortex directly into Nova Scotia and verified very well for this case. The UKMO model uses synthetic observations to enhance structures in poorly-forecasted areas during the analysis cycle and both the GFDL and NOGAPS model use advanced idealized vortex bogusing in their initial conditions. The quality of the McGill MC2 forecast is found to be significantly enhanced using a bogusing technique similar to that used in the initialization of the successful forecast models. A verification of the improved forecast is presented along with a discussion of the need for operational quality control of the background fields in the analysis cycle and for proper representation of strong, small-scale tropical

Using Analog Ensemble to generate spatially downscaled probabilistic wind power forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Monache, L.; Shahriari, M.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

We use the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic 80-m wind power forecasts. We use data from the NCEP GFS ( 28 km resolution) and NCEP NAM (12 km resolution). We use forecasts data from NAM and GFS, and analysis data from NAM which enables us to: 1) use a lower-resolution model to create higher-resolution forecasts, and 2) use a higher-resolution model to create higher-resolution forecasts. The former essentially increases computing speed and the latter increases forecast accuracy. An aggregated model of the former can be compared against the latter to measure the accuracy of the AnEn spatial downscaling. The AnEn works by taking a deterministic future forecast and comparing it with past forecasts. The model searches for the best matching estimates within the past forecasts and selects the predictand value corresponding to these past forecasts as the ensemble prediction for the future forecast. Our study is based on predicting wind speed and air density at more than 13,000 grid points in the continental US. We run the AnEn model twice: 1) estimating 80-m wind speed by using predictor variables such as temperature, pressure, geopotential height, U-component and V-component of wind, 2) estimating air density by using predictors such as temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. We use the air density values to correct the standard wind power curves for different values of air density. The standard deviation of the ensemble members (i.e. ensemble spread) will be used as the degree of difficulty to predict wind power at different locations. The value of the correlation coefficient between the ensemble spread and the forecast error determines the appropriateness of this measure. This measure is prominent for wind farm developers as building wind farms in regions with higher predictability will reduce the real-time risks of operating in the electricity markets.

Global Turbulence Decision Support for Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.; Sharman, R.; Kessinger, C.; Feltz, W.; Wimmers, A.

2009-09-01

Turbulence is widely recognized as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers on commercial air carriers, yet legacy decision support products such as SIGMETs and SIGWX charts provide relatively low spatial- and temporal-resolution assessments and forecasts of turbulence, with limited usefulness for strategic planning and tactical turbulence avoidance. A new effort is underway to develop an automated, rapid-update, gridded global turbulence diagnosis and forecast system that addresses upper-level clear-air turbulence, mountain-wave turbulence, and convectively-induced turbulence. This NASA-funded effort, modeled on the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) and GTG Nowcast systems, employs NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model output and data from NASA and operational satellites to produce quantitative turbulence nowcasts and forecasts. A convective nowcast element based on GFS forecasts and satellite data provides a basis for diagnosing convective turbulence. An operational prototype "Global GTG” system has been running in real-time at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research since the spring of 2009. Initial verification based on data from TRMM, Cloudsat and MODIS (for the convection nowcasting) and AIREPs and AMDAR data (for turbulence) are presented. This product aims to provide the "single authoritative source” for global turbulence information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump

JIS Definition Identified More Malaysian Adults with Metabolic Syndrome Compared to the NCEP-ATP III and IDF Criteria

PubMed Central

Daher, Aqil Mohammad; Noor Khan Nor-Ashikin, Mohamed; Mat-Nasir, Nafiza; Keat Ng, Kien; Ambigga, Krishnapillai S.; Ariffin, Farnaza; Yasin Mazapuspavina, Md; Abdul-Razak, Suraya; Abdul-Hamid, Hasidah; Abd-Majid, Fadhlina; Abu-Bakar, Najmin; Nawawi, Hapizah; Yusoff, Khalid

2013-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a steering force for the cardiovascular diseases epidemic in Asia. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of MetS in Malaysian adults using NCEP-ATP III, IDF, and JIS definitions, identify the demographic factors associated with MetS, and determine the level of agreement between these definitions. The analytic sample consisted of 8,836 adults aged ≥30 years recruited at baseline in 2007–2011 from the Cardiovascular Risk Prevention Study (CRisPS), an ongoing, prospective cohort study involving 18 urban and 22 rural communities in Malaysia. JIS definition gave the highest overall prevalence (43.4%) compared to NCEP-ATP III (26.5%) and IDF (37.4%), P < 0.001. Indians had significantly higher age-adjusted prevalence compared to other ethnic groups across all MetS definitions (30.1% by NCEP-ATP III, 50.8% by IDF, and 56.5% by JIS). The likelihood of having MetS amongst the rural and urban populations was similar across all definitions. A high level of agreement between the IDF and JIS was observed (Kappa index = 0.867), while there was a lower level of agreement between the IDF and NCEP-ATP III (Kappa index = 0.580). JIS definition identified more Malaysian adults with MetS and therefore should be recommended as the preferred diagnostic criterion. PMID:24175300

Handling Input and Output for COAMPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzpatrick, Patrick; Tran, Nam; Li, Yongzuo; Anantharaj, Valentine

2007-01-01

Two suites of software have been developed to handle the input and output of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS), which is a regional atmospheric model developed by the Navy for simulating and predicting weather. Typically, the initial and boundary conditions for COAMPS are provided by a flat-file representation of the Navy s global model. Additional algorithms are needed for running the COAMPS software using global models. One of the present suites satisfies this need for running COAMPS using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first step in running COAMPS downloading of GFS data from an Internet file-transfer-protocol (FTP) server computer of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is performed by one of the programs (SSC-00273) in this suite. The GFS data, which are in gridded binary (GRIB) format, are then changed to a COAMPS-compatible format by another program in the suite (SSC-00278). Once a forecast is complete, still another program in the suite (SSC-00274) sends the output data to a different server computer. The second suite of software (SSC- 00275) addresses the need to ingest up-to-date land-use-and-land-cover (LULC) data into COAMPS for use in specifying typical climatological values of such surface parameters as albedo, aerodynamic roughness, and ground wetness. This suite includes (1) a program to process LULC data derived from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites, (2) programs to derive new climatological parameters for the 17-land-use-category MODIS data; and (3) a modified version of a FORTRAN subroutine to be used by COAMPS. The MODIS data files are processed to reformat them into a compressed American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format used by COAMPS for efficient processing.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in populations of Asian origin. Comparison of the IDF definition with the NCEP definition.

PubMed

2007-04-01

To estimate the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome using the IDF versus NCEP definition. 14222 non-diabetic and 1516 diabetic subjects, aged 25-74 years. The age-standardized prevalence of the IDF metabolic syndrome in non-diabetic men (women) was 12.0% (15.0%), 13.8% (2.5%), 12.8% (17.0%), and 13.2% (20.3%), respectively, in Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indians, and native Indians. The prevalence ratio of IDF to NCEP was 1.5 (1.5), 2.7 (0.4), 1.2 (1.2), and 1.0 (1.3) in Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian, and Native Indian men (women), respectively. When the same obesity criteria for Japanese as for others were used the ratio for Japanese was 1.5 in both genders. Of all subjects fulfilling either of the two definitions, only 28% of men and 47% of women met the both. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times greater using the IDF definition than using the NCEP definition in Japanese men but it was 0.8 times lower in Japanese women. The IDF definition brought a higher prevalence of the metabolic syndrome than the NCEP in all except for Japanese women but many lean subjects with hypertension and/or dyslipidemia were undetected by this definition. The IDF criterion for central obesity for Japanese needs to be reconsidered.

Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

High-Resolution Subtropical Summer Precipitation Derived from Dynamical Downscaling of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis: How Much Small-Scale Information Is Added by a Regional Model?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Stefanova, Lydia B.; Chan, Steven C.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; OBrien, James J.

2010-01-01

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5deg latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20 km resolution for 16 summer seasons (19902005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20 km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93 (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92 (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved

A study comparison of two system model performance in estimated lifted index over Indonesia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

lestari, Juliana tri; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

Lifted index (LI) is one of atmospheric stability indices that used for thunderstorm forecasting. Numerical weather Prediction Models are essential for accurate weather forecast these day. This study has completed the attempt to compare the two NWP models these are Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and Global Forecasting System (GFS) model in estimates LI at 20 locations over Indonesia and verified the result with observation. Taylor diagram was used to comparing the models skill with shown the value of standard deviation, coefficient correlation and Root mean square error (RMSE). This study using the dataset on 00.00 UTC and 12.00 UTC during mid-March to Mid-April 2017. From the sample of LI distributions, both models have a tendency to overestimated LI value in almost all region in Indonesia while the WRF models has the better ability to catch the LI pattern distribution with observation than GFS model has. The verification result shows how both WRF and GFS model have such a weak relationship with observation except Eltari meteorologi station that its coefficient correlation reach almost 0.6 with the low RMSE value. Mean while WRF model have a better performance than GFS model. This study suggest that estimated LI of WRF model can provide the good performance for Thunderstorm forecasting over Indonesia in the future. However unsufficient relation between output models and observation in the certain location need a further investigation.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF). Web designed by Binbin Zhou,

Science.gov Websites

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC 2D Fields 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Select speed: normal 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Select Cycle: 12Z

Monitoring the performance of the next Climate Forecast System version 3, throughout its development stage at EMC/NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña, M.; Saha, S.; Wu, X.; Wang, J.; Tripp, P.; Moorthi, S.; Bhattacharjee, P.

2016-12-01

The next version of the operational Climate Forecast System (version 3, CFSv3) will be a fully coupled six-components system with diverse applications to earth system modeling, including weather and climate predictions. This system will couple the earth's atmosphere, land, ocean, sea-ice, waves and aerosols for both data assimilation and modeling. It will also use the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software super structure to couple these components. The CFSv3 is part of the next Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which will unify the global prediction systems that are now operational at NCEP. The UGCS is being developed through the efforts of dedicated research and engineering teams and through coordination across many CPO/MAPP and NGGPS groups. During this development phase, the UGCS is being tested for seasonal purposes and undergoes frequent revisions. Each new revision is evaluated to quickly discover, isolate and solve problems that negatively impact its performance. In the UGCS-seasonal model, components (e.g., ocean, sea-ice, atmosphere, etc.) are coupled through a NEMS-based "mediator". In this numerical infrastructure, model diagnostics and forecast validation are carried out, both component by component, and as a whole. The next stage, model optimization, will require enhanced performance diagnostics tools to help prioritize areas of numerical improvements. After the technical development of the UGCS-seasonal is completed, it will become the first realization of the CFSv3. All future development of this system will be carried out by the climate team at NCEP, in scientific collaboration with the groups that developed the individual components, as well as the climate community. A unique challenge to evaluate this unified weather-climate system is the large number of variables, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A small set of performance measures and scorecard displays are been created, and collaboration and

Global water vapor variability and trend from the latest 36 year (1979 to 2014) data of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses, radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Biyan; Liu, Zhizhao

2016-10-01

The variability and trend in global precipitable water vapor (PWV) from 1979 to 2014 are analyzed using the PWV data sets from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), radiosonde, Global Positioning System (GPS), and microwave satellite observations. PWV data from the ECMWF and NCEP have been evaluated by radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite observations, showing that ECMWF has higher accuracy than NCEP. Over the oceans, ECMWF has a much better agreement with the microwave satellite than NCEP. An upward trend in the global PWV is evident in all the five PWV data sets over three study periods: 1979-2014, 1992-2014, and 2000-2014. Positive global PWV trends, defined as percentage normalized by annual average, of 0.61 ± 0.33% decade-1, 0.57 ± 0.28% decade-1, and 0.17 ± 0.35% decade-1, have been derived from the NCEP, radiosonde, and ECMWF, respectively, for the period 1979-2014. It is found that ECMWF overestimates the PWV over the ocean prior to 1992. Thus, two more periods, 1992-2014 and 2000-2014, are studied. Increasing PWV trends are observed from all the five data sets in the two periods: 1992-2014 and 2000-2014. The linear relationship between PWV and surface temperature is positive over most oceans and the polar region. Steep positive/negative regression slopes are generally found in regions where large regional moisture flux divergence/convergence occurs.

Multiphysics and Multiscale Model Coupling Using Gerris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keen, T. R.; Dykes, J. D.; Campbell, T. J.

2012-12-01

This work is implementing oceanographic processes encompassing multiple physics and scales using the Gerris Flow Solver (GFS) in order to examine their interdependence and sensitivity to changes in the physical environment. The processes include steady flow due to tides and the wind, phase-averaged wave-forced flow and oscillatory currents, and sediment transport. The 2D steady flow is calculated by the Ocean module contained within GFS. This model solves the Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations using the finite volume method. The model domain is represented by quad-tree adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). A stationary wave field is computed for a specified wave spectrum is uniformly distributed over the domain as a tracer with local wind input parameterized as a source, and dissipation by friction and breaking as a sink. Alongshore flow is included by a radiation stress term; this current is added to the steady flow component from tides and wind. Wave-current interaction is parameterized using a bottom boundary layer model. Sediment transport as suspended and bed load is implemented using tracers that are transported via the advection equations. A bed-conservation equation is implemented to allow changes in seafloor elevation to be used in adjusting the AMR refinement. These processes are being coupled using programming methods that are inherent to GFS and that do not require modification or recompiling of the code. These techniques include passive tracers, C functions that operate as plug-ins, and user-defined C-type macros included with GFS. Our results suggest that the AMR model coupling method is useful for problems where the dynamics are governed by several processes. This study is examining the relative influence of the steady currents, wave field, and sedimentation. Hydrodynamic and sedimentation interaction in nearshore environments is being studied for an idealized beach and for the Sandy Duck storm of Oct. 1998. The potential behavior of muddy sediments on the

Assessment of simulation of radiation in NCEP Climate Forecasting System (CFS V2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Tanmoy; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, Somnath

2017-09-01

The objective of this study is to identify and document the radiation biases in the latest National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP), Climate Forecasting System (CFSv2) and to investigate the probable reasons for these biases. This analysis is made over global and Indian domain under all-sky and clear-sky conditions. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model on these biases is also investigated by comparing results of two different horizontal resolution versions of CFSv2 namely T126 and T382. The difference between the top of the atmosphere and surface energy imbalance in T126 (T382) is 3.49 (2.78) W/m2. This reduction of bias in the high resolution model is achieved due to lesser low cloud cover, resulting more surface insolation, and due to more latent heat fluxes at the surface. Compared to clear sky simulations, all sky simulations exhibit larger biases suggesting that the cloud covers are not simulated well in the model. The annual mean high level cloud cover is over estimated over the global as well as the Indian domain. This overestimation over the Indian domain is also present during JJAS. There is also evidence that both of the models have insufficient water vapour in their atmosphere. This study suggests that in order to improve the model's mean radiation climatology, simulation of clouds in the model also needs to be improved, and future model development activities should focus on this aspect.

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

A Prototype Nonhydrostatic Regional-to-Global Nested-Grid Atmosphere Model for Medium-range Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, L.; Lin, S. J.; Zhou, L.; Chen, J. H.; Benson, R.; Rees, S.

2016-12-01

Limited-area convection-permitting models have proven useful for short-range NWP, but are unable to interact with the larger scales needed for longer lead-time skill. A new global forecast model, fvGFS, has been designed combining a modern nonhydrostatic dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational GFS physics and initial conditions, and has been shown to provide excellent global skill while improving representation of small-scale phenomena. The nested-grid capability of FV3 allows us to build a regional-to-global variable-resolution model to efficiently refine to 3-km grid spacing over the Continental US. The use of two-way grid nesting allows us to reach these resolutions very efficiently, with the operational requirement easily attainable on current supercomputing systems.Even without a boundary-layer or advanced microphysical scheme appropriate for convection-perrmitting resolutions, the effectiveness of fvGFS can be demonstrated for a variety of weather events. We demonstrate successful proof-of-concept simulations of a variety of phenomena. We show the capability to develop intense hurricanes with realistic fine-scale eyewalls and rainbands. The new model also produces skillful predictions of severe weather outbreaks and of organized mesoscale convective systems. Fine-scale orographic and boundary-layer phenomena are also simulated with excellent fidelity by fvGFS. Further expected improvements are discussed, including the introduction of more sophisticated microphysics and of scale-aware convection schemes.

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Flinn, Clay

2013-01-01

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Using Deep Learning for Targeted Data Selection, Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. J.; Bonfanti, C. E.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.; Govett, M.; Stewart, J.

2017-12-01

At present, a fraction of all satellite observations are ultimately used for model assimilation. The satellite data assimilation process is computationally expensive and data are often reduced in resolution to allow timely incorporation into the forecast. This problem is only exacerbated by the recent launch of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 satellite and future satellites providing several order of magnitude increase in data volume. At the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) we are researching the use of machine learning the improve the initial selection of satellite data to be used in the model assimilation process. In particular, we are investigating the use of deep learning. Deep learning is being applied to many image processing and computer vision problems with great success. Through our research, we are using convolutional neural network to find and mark regions of interest (ROI) to lead to intelligent extraction of observations from satellite observation systems. These targeted observations will be used to improve the quality of data selected for model assimilation and ultimately improve the impact of satellite data on weather forecasts. Our preliminary efforts to identify the ROI's are focused in two areas: applying and comparing state-of-art convolutional neural network models using the analysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model, and using these results as a starting point to optimize convolution neural network model for pattern recognition on the higher resolution water vapor data from GOES-WEST and other satellite. This presentation will provide an introduction to our convolutional neural network model to identify and process these ROI's, along with the challenges of data preparation, training the model, and parameter optimization.

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-08-01

Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Trends in solar radiation in NCEP/NCAR database and measurements in northeastern Brazil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Vicente de Paulo Rodrigues da; Silva, Roberta Araujo e; Cavalcanti, Enilson Palmeira

2010-10-15

The database from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis project available for the period from 1948 to 2009 was used for obtaining long-term solar radiation for northeastern Brazil. Measurements of global solar radiation (R{sub s}) from data collection platform (DCP) for four climatic zones of northeastern Brazil were compared to the re-analysis data. Applying cluster analysis to R{sub s} from database, homogeneous sub-regions in northeastern Brazil were determined. Long times series of R{sub s} and sunshine duration measurements data for two sites, Petrolina (09 09'S, 40 22'W) and Juazeiro (09 24'S, 40 26'W), exceedingmore » 30 years, were analyzed. In order to exclude the decadal variations which are linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, high-frequency cycles in the solar radiation and sunshine duration time series were eliminated by using a 14-year moving average, and the Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the long-term variability of re-analysis and measured solar radiation. This study provides an overview of the decrease in solar radiation in a large area, which can be attributed to the global dimming effect. The global solar radiation obtained from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data overestimate that obtained from DCP measurements by 1.6% to 18.6%. Results show that there is a notable symmetry between R{sub s} from the re-analysis data and sunshine duration measurements. (author)« less

Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2007-01-01

An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

MODEL CHANGES SINCE 1991

Science.gov Websites

, effects of balloon drift in time and space included Forecast and post processing: Improved orography minor changes: Observations and analysis: Higher resolution sea ice mask Forecast and post processing . 12/04/07 12Z: Use of Unified Post Processor in GFS 12/04/07 12Z: GFS Ensemble (NAEFS/TIGGE) UPGRADE

Comparative Evaluation of Performances of Two Versions of NCEP Climate Forecast System in Predicting Winter Precipitation over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Nair, Archana; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-06-01

The precipitation during winter (December through February) over India is highly variable in terms of time and space. Maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region, which is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and also for the economy of the country. Therefore, in the present global warming era, the realistic prediction of winter precipitation over India is important for planning and implementing agriculture and water management strategies. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issued the operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly to seasonal scale since 2004 using their first version of fully coupled global climate model known as Climate Forecast System (CFSv1). In 2011, a new version of CFS (CFSv2) was introduced with the incorporation of significant changes in older version of CFS (CFSv1). The new version of CFS is required to compare in detail with the older version in the context of simulating the winter precipitation over India. Therefore, the current study presents a detailed analysis on the performance of CFSv2 as compared to CFSv1 for the winter precipitation over India. The hindcast runs of both CFS versions from 1982 to 2008 with November initial conditions are used and the model's precipitation is evaluated with that of India Meteorological Department (IMD). The models simulated wind and geopotential height against the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis-2 (NNRP2) and remote response patterns of SST against Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures version 3b (ERSSTv3b) are examined for the same period. The analyses of winter precipitation revealed that both the models are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology; interannual variability and coefficient of variation. However, the magnitude is lesser than IMD observation that can be attributed to the model's inability to simulate the observed remote response of sea surface

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1958-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Gimeno, Luis; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Hernandez, Emiliano; Calvo, Natalia

2003-07-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1958-2001). MultiTaper Method-Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the stratosphere, the signal being less intense in the lower levels. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time at low latitudes, not evident at mid and high latitudes. There are differences in the behavior of the signal over both hemispheres, being much weaker over the SH. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected at approximately 60°N. Two different areas at subtropical latitudes are detected to be characterized by wind anomalies opposed to that of the equator.

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards

Interannual/decadal variability in MJO activity as diagnosed in the 40-year NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and simulated in an ensemble of GISST integrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slingo, J. M.; Rowell, D. P.; Sperber, K. R.

1999-04-21

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The interannual behaviour of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis by calculating the variance of the 20-100 day filtered zonal mean zonal wind (10 o N-10 o S averaged) in a 100- day moving window. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than duringmore » the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. This interdecadal trend is captured by the dominant EOF (explaining 28% of the variance) of the monthly mean SSTs (after removal of the mean seasonal cycle), as used in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the region of the tropics where the MJO is convectively active (i.e., 60 o E-180 o E, 20 o S-20 o N). During the latter part of 1970s there was an abrupt change from a predominantly negative PC1 (i.e. colder Indian Ocean) to a positive PC1 (i.e. warmer Indian Ocean), indicative of a general warming of the tropical Indian Ocean by at least 0.5 o K over the last 40 years. However, on interannual timescales, the teleconnection patterns between MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Niño in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HADAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HADAM2a is known to give a reasonable

Designing Collaborative Developmental Standards by Refactoring of the Earth Science Models, Libraries, Workflows and Frameworks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirvis, E.; Iredell, M.

2015-12-01

The operational (OPS) NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suite, traditionally, consist of a large set of multi- scale HPC models, workflows, scripts, tools and utilities, which are very much depending on the variety of the additional components. Namely, this suite utilizes a unique collection of the in-house developed 20+ shared libraries (NCEPLIBS), certain versions of the 3-rd party libraries (like netcdf, HDF, ESMF, jasper, xml etc.), HPC workflow tool within dedicated (sometimes even vendors' customized) HPC system homogeneous environment. This domain and site specific, accompanied with NCEP's product- driven large scale real-time data operations complicates NCEP collaborative development tremendously by reducing chances to replicate this OPS environment anywhere else. The NOAA/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) missions to develop and improve numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through the partnership with the research community. Realizing said difficulties, lately, EMC has been taken an innovative approach to improve flexibility of the HPC environment by building the elements and a foundation for NCEP OPS functionally equivalent environment (FEE), which can be used to ease the external interface constructs as well. Aiming to reduce turnaround time of the community code enhancements via Research-to-Operations (R2O) cycle, EMC developed and deployed several project sub-set standards that already paved the road to NCEP OPS implementation standards. In this topic we will discuss the EMC FEE for O2R requirements and approaches in collaborative standardization, including NCEPLIBS FEE and models code version control paired with the models' derived customized HPC modules and FEE footprints. We will share NCEP/EMC experience and potential in the refactoring of EMC development processes, legacy codes and in securing model source code quality standards by using combination of the Eclipse IDE, integrated with the

Intra-annual variability of cloud cover over the Mediterranean region based on NCEP/NCAR, MODIS and ECAD data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannidis, Eleftherios; Lolis, Christos J.; Papadimas, Christos D.; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos; Bartzokas, Aristides

2017-04-01

The seasonal variability of total cloud cover in the Mediterranean region is examined for the period 1948-2014 using a multivariate statistical methodology. The data used consist of: i) daily gridded (1.875°x1.905°) values of total cloud cover over the broader Mediterranean region for the 66-year period 1948-2014, obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data set, ii) daily gridded (1°x1°) values of total cloud cover for the period 2003-2014 obtained from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data set and iii) daily station cloud cover data for the period 2003-2014 obtained from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). At first, the multivariate statistical method of Factor Analysis (S-mode) with varimax rotation is applied as a dimensionality reduction tool on the mean day to day intra-annual variation of NCEP/NCAR cloud cover for the period 1948-2014. According to the results, three main modes of intra-annual variation of cloud cover are found. The first mode is characterized by a winter maximum and a summer minimum and prevails mainly over the sea; a weak see-saw teleconnection over the Alps represents the opposite intra-annual marching. The second mode presents maxima in early autumn and late spring, and minima in late summer and winter, and prevails over the SW Europe and NW Africa inland regions. The third mode shows a maximum in June and a minimum in October and prevails over the eastern part of central Europe. Next, the mean day to day intra-annual variation of NCEP/NCAR cloud cover over the core regions of the above factors is calculated for the entire period 1948-2014 and the three 22-year sub-periods 1948-70, 1970-92 and 1992-2014. A comparison is carried out between each of the three sub-periods and the total period in order to reveal possible long-term changes in seasonal march of total cloud cover. The results show that cloud cover was reduced above all regions during the last 22-year sub-period 1992

Lack of chart reminder effectiveness on family medicine resident JNC-VI and NCEP III guideline knowledge and attitudes.

PubMed

Echlin, Paul S; Upshur, Ross E G; Markova, Tsveti P

2004-07-05

The literature demonstrates that medical residents and practicing physicians have an attitudinal-behavioral discordance concerning their positive attitudes towards clinical practice guidelines (CPG), and the implementation of these guidelines into clinical practice patterns. A pilot study was performed to determine if change in a previously identified CPG compliance factor (accessibility) would produce a significant increase in family medicine resident knowledge and attitude toward the guidelines. The primary study intervention involved placing a summary of the Sixth Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI) and the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (NCEP III) CPGs in all patient (>18 yr.) charts for a period of three months. The JNC VI and NCEP III CPGs were also distributed to each Wayne State family medicine resident, and a copy of each CPG was placed in the preceptor's area of the involved clinics. Identical pre- and post- intervention questionnaires were administered to all residents concerning CPG knowledge and attitude. Post-intervention analysis failed to demonstrate a significant difference in CPG knowledge. A statistically significant post-intervention difference was found in only on attitude question. The barriers to CPG compliance were identified as 1) lack of CPG instruction; 2) lack of critical appraisal ability; 3) insufficient time; 4) lack of CPG accessibility; and 5) lack of faculty modeling. This study demonstrated no significant post intervention changes in CPG knowledge, and only one question that reflected attitude change. Wider resident access to dedicated clinic time, increased faculty modeling, and the implementation of an electronic record/reminder system that uses a team-based approach are compliance factors that should be considered for further investigation. The

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1948-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Gimeno, L.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Calvo, N.

2003-04-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset (1948-2001). MTM-SVD, a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband, oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the whole mid and high stratosphere, being the signal less intense in the lower levels, closer to the troposphere. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time over low latitudes, from 10 to 100 hPa, that is not evident over mid and high latitudes. A different behavior of the signal is detected over the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected to run around the whole hemisphere at 60º, and two regions in subtropical latitudes show wind anomalies with their sing opposed to that of the equator. In the SH no signal is detected in extratropical areas.

Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.

2016-12-01

The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Implementation and calibration of a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Phani, R.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A. J.

2017-07-01

A comparative analysis of fourteen 5 year long climate simulations produced by the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), in which a stochastic multicloud (SMCM) cumulus parameterization is implemented, is presented here. These 5 year runs are made with different sets of parameters in order to figure out the best model configuration based on a suite of state-of-the-art metrics. This analysis is also a systematic attempt to understand the model sensitivity to the SMCM parameters. The model is found to be resilient to minor changes in the parameters used implying robustness of the SMCM formulation. The model is found to be most sensitive to the midtropospheric dryness parameter (MTD) and to the stratiform cloud decay timescale (τ30). MTD is more effective in controlling the global mean precipitation and its distribution while τ30 has more effect on the organization of convection as noticed in the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). This is consistent with the fact that in the SMCM formulation, midtropospheric humidity controls the deepening of convection and stratiform clouds control the backward tilt of tropospheric heating and the strength of unsaturated downdrafts which cool and dry the boundary layer and trigger the propagation of organized convection. Many other studies have also found midtropospheric humidity to be a key factor in the capacity of a global climate model to simulate organized convection on the synoptic and intraseasonal scales.

Relating Convective System Durability with Vertical Wind Profile extracted from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergès, Jean-Claude; Beltrando, Gérard; Cacault, Philippe

2014-05-01

Various theoretical models focus on the relationship between wind characteristic and convective system durability. Yet in 1988, Rotuno, Klemp and Weisman state that an optimal live length result from a balance between cold pool thickness and low level wind shear. However these models require a knowledge of local upper air environment and these data are scarcely available for climatological studies. Our presentation address the issue of relating the wind vertical profile extracted from reanalysis fields with a convective system type index. Whereas getting wind data from the NCEP/NCAR database is a straightforward task, assessing convective system extension from geostationary satellite data raise both methodological and practical issues. In a climatological view of convective systems, the initiating steps can be be neglected and a tropopause temperature threshold could be sufficient to delineate systems area. Thus the dynamic parameters between two consecutive would be obtained by a maximum recovery algorithm. But this simple method has to be enhanced to avoid two drawbacks: a rough system area overestimation due to the trailing cirrus and an over-segmentation of active systems. To mitigate the first bias a watershed image segmentation is carry out and the patches with a negative growing rate are eliminated. In order to properly join different parts of the same system, a 3D labeling algorithm has been implemented. Moreover, as motion retrieval methods are based on overlapping area, spatial and temporal resolution imports and full data processing require optimized computation procedures. Based on these methods, we have produced a base of convective systems trajectory based on MSG and Meteosat data. To avoid parallax effects only the central part of the acquisition disk has been considered. System extension and duration has been compared with wind shear in amplitude and direction. The preliminary results shows a global effect consistent with simulation models, but

Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Moya, Jose-Antonio; Callado, Alfons; Escribà, Pau; Santos, Carlos; Santos-Muñoz, Daniel; Simarro, Juan

2011-05-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (including mesoscale) have limitations when it comes to dealing with severe weather events because extreme weather is highly unpredictable, even in the short range. A probabilistic forecast based on an ensemble of slightly different model runs may help to address this issue. Among other ensemble techniques, Multimodel ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are proving to be useful for adding probabilistic value to mesoscale deterministic models. A Multimodel Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) focused on forecasting the weather up to 72 h has been developed at the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET). The system uses five different limited area models (LAMs), namely HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), the UM (UKMO), MM5 (PSU/NCAR) and COSMO (COSMO Consortium). These models run with initial and boundary conditions provided by five different global deterministic models, namely IFS (ECMWF), UM (UKMO), GME (DWD), GFS (NCEP) and CMC (MSC). AEMET-SREPS (AE) validation on the large-scale flow, using ECMWF analysis, shows a consistent and slightly underdispersive system. For surface parameters, the system shows high skill forecasting binary events. 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts are verified using an up-scaling grid of observations from European high-resolution precipitation networks, and compared with ECMWF-EPS (EC).

Validation of the vertical profiles of three meteorological models using radiosondes from Antofagasta, Paranal and Llano de Chajnantor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortés, L.; Curé, M.

2011-11-01

This research presents an evaluation of three meteorological models, the Global Forecast System (GFS), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) for three sites located in north of Chile. Cerro Moreno Airport, the Paranal Observatory and Llano de Chajnantor are located at 25, 130 and 283 km from the city of Antofagasta, respectively. Results for the three sites show that the lowest correlation and the highest errors occur at the surface. ECMWF model presents the best results at these levels for the two hours analyzed. This could be due to the fact that the ECMWF model has 91 vertical levels, compared to the 64 and 27 vertical levels of GFS and WRF models, respectively. Therefore, it can represent better the processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). In relation to the middle and upper troposphere, the three models show good agreement.

The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, D. E.; Shi, Zhixiong; Lanzante, J. R.; Oort, A. H.

We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell ( 20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell ( 20-60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from

AIRS associated accomplishments at the JCSDA: First use of full spatial resolution hyperspectral data show significant improvements in global forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Marshall, J.; Jung, J.; Lord, S. J.; Derber, J. C.; Treadon, R.; Joiner, J.; Goldberg, M.; Wolf, W.; Liu, H. C.

2005-08-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Department of Defense (DoD), Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) was established in 2000/2001. The goal of the JCSDA is to accelerate the use of observations from earth-orbiting satellites into operational numerical environmental analysis and prediction systems for the purpose of improving weather and oceanic forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts and the accuracy of climate data sets. As a result, a series of data assimilation experiments were undertaken at the JCSDA as part of the preparations for the operational assimilation of AIRS data by its partner organizations1,2. Here, for the first time full spatial resolution radiance data, available in real-time from the AIRS instrument, were used at the JCSDA in data assimilation studies over the globe utilizing the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The radiance data from each channel of the instrument were carefully screened for cloud effects and those radiances which were deemed to be clear of cloud effects were used by the GFS forecast system. The result of these assimilation trials has been a first demonstration of significant improvements in forecast skill over both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere compared to the operational system without AIRS data. The experimental system was designed in a way that rendered it feasible for operational application, and that constraint involved using the subset of AIRS channels chosen for operational distribution and an analysis methodology close to the current analysis practice, with particular consideration given to time limitations. As a result, operational application of these AIRS data was enabled by the recent NCEP operational upgrade. In addition, because of the improved impact resulting from use of this enhanced data set compared to that used operationally to date, provision of a realtime "warmest field" of view data set

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

2004-01-01

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

The hourly updated US High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) storm-scale forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Curtis; Dowell, David; Benjamin, Stan; Weygandt, Stephen; Olson, Joseph; Kenyon, Jaymes; Grell, Georg; Smirnova, Tanya; Ladwig, Terra; Brown, John; James, Eric; Hu, Ming

2016-04-01

The 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a US NOAA hourly updating weather forecast model that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel and most conventional observation types on an hourly basis using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Included in this assimilation is a procedure for initializing ongoing precipitation systems from observed radar reflectivity data (and proxy reflectivity from lightning and satellite data), a cloud analysis to initialize stable layer clouds from METAR and satellite observations, and special techniques to enhance retention of surface observation information. The HRRR is run hourly out to 15 forecast hours over a domain covering the entire conterminous United States using initial and boundary conditions from the hourly-cycled 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP, using similar physics and data assimilation) covering North America and a significant part of the Northern Hemisphere. The HRRR is continually developed and refined at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, and an initial version was implemented into the operational NOAA/NCEP production suite in September 2014. Ongoing experimental RAP and HRRR model development throughout 2014 and 2015 has culminated in a set of data assimilation and model enhancements that will be incorporated into the first simultaneous upgrade of both the operational RAP and HRRR that is scheduled for spring 2016 at NCEP. This presentation will discuss the operational RAP and HRRR changes contained in this upgrade. The RAP domain is being expanded to encompass the NAM domain and the forecast lengths of both the RAP and HRRR are being extended. RAP and HRRR assimilation enhancements have focused on (1) extending surface data assimilation to include mesonet observations and improved use of all surface observations through better background estimates of 2-m temperature and dewpoint including projection of 2-m temperature

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Documentation, experiments, web content Nicole McKee Makefiles, scripts, launcher Edward Colon NEMSIO, post Yang GFS post Hui-ya Chuang NAM development Tom Black Dusan Jovic Jim Abeles GFS development S Moorthi

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme

Preparation and in vivo evaluation of cationic elastic liposomes comprising highly skin-permeable growth factors combined with hyaluronic acid for enhanced diabetic wound-healing therapy.

PubMed

Choi, Jeong Uk; Lee, Seong Wook; Pangeni, Rudra; Byun, Youngro; Yoon, In-Soo; Park, Jin Woo

2017-07-15

To enhance the therapeutic effects of exogenous administration of growth factors (GFs) in the treatment of chronic wounds, we constructed GF combinations of highly skin-permeable epidermal growth factor (EGF), insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), and platelet-derived growth factor-A (PDGF-A). We genetically conjugated a low-molecular-weight protamine (LMWP) to the N-termini of these GFs to form LMWP-EGF, LMWP-IGF-I, and LMWP-PDGF-A. Subsequently, these molecules were complexed with hyaluronic acid (HA). Combinations of native or LMWP-fused GFs significantly promoted fibroblast proliferation and the synthesis of procollagen, with a magnification of these results observed after the GFs were complexed with HA. The optimal proportions of LMWP-EGF, LMWP-IGF-I, LMWP-PDGF-A, and HA were 1, 1, 0.02, and 200, respectively. After confirming the presence of a synergistic effect, we incorporated the LMWP-fused GFs-HA complex into cationic elastic liposomes (ELs) of 107±0.757nm in diameter and a zeta potential of 56.5±1.13mV. The LMWP-fused GFs had significantly improved skin permeation compared with native GFs. The in vitro wound recovery rate of the LMWP-fused GFs-HA complex was 23% higher than that of cationic ELs composed of LMWP-fused GFs alone. Moreover, the cationic ELs containing the LMWP-fused GFs-HA complex significantly accelerated the wound closure rate in a diabetic mouse model and the wound size was maximally decreased by 65% and 58% compared to cationic ELs loaded with vehicle or native GFs-HA complex, respectively. Thus, topical treatment with cationic ELs loaded with the LMWP-fused GFs-HA complex synergistically enhanced the healing of chronic wounds, exerting both rapid and prolonged effects. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature, because it demonstrated the potential application of cationic elastic liposomes as topical delivery systems for growth factors (GFs) that have certain limitations in their therapeutic effects

Resolution analysis of finite fault source inversion using one- and three-dimensional Green's functions 1. Strong motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Wald, D.J.

2001-01-01

We develop a methodology to perform finite fault source inversions from strong motion data using Green's functions (GFs) calculated for a three-dimensional (3-D) velocity structure. The 3-D GFs are calculated numerically by inserting body forces at each of the strong motion sites and then recording the resulting strains along the target fault surface. Using reciprocity, these GFs can be recombined to represent the ground motion at each site for any (heterogeneous) slip distribution on the fault. The reciprocal formulation significantly reduces the required number of 3-D finite difference computations to at most 3NS, where NS is the number of strong motion sites used in the inversion. Using controlled numerical resolution tests, we have examined the relative importance of accurate GFs for finite fault source inversions which rely on near-source ground motions. These experiments use both 1-D and 3-D GFs in inversions for hypothetical rupture models in order (1) to analyze the ability of the 3-D methodology to resolve trade-offs between complex source phenomena and 3-D path effects, (2) to address the sensitivity of the inversion results to uncertainties in the 3-D velocity structure, and (3) to test the adequacy of the 1-D GF method when propagation effects are known to be three-dimensional. We find that given "data" from a prescribed 3-D Earth structure, the use of well-calibrated 3-D GFs in the inversion provides very good resolution of the assumed slip distribution, thus adequately separating source and 3-D propagation effects. In contrast, using a set of inexact 3-D GFs or a set of hybrid 1-D GFs allows only partial recovery of the slip distribution. These findings suggest that in regions of complex geology the use of well-calibrated 3-D GFs has the potential for increased resolution of the rupture process relative to 1-D GFs. However, realizing this full potential requires that the 3-D velocity model and associated GFs should be carefully validated against the

Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.

2003-01-01

This paper examines the hydrologic model performance in three snowmelt-dominated basins in the western United States to dynamically- and statistically downscaled output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP). Runoff produced using a distributed hydrologic model is compared using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature timeseries derived from the following sources: (1) NCEP output (horizontal grid spacing of approximately 210 km); (2) dynamically downscaled (DDS) NCEP output using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2, horizontal grid spacing of approximately 52 km); (3) statistically downscaled (SDS) NCEP output; (4) spatially averaged measured data used to calibrate the hydrologic model (Best-Sta) and (5) spatially averaged measured data derived from stations located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluding Best-Sta set (All-Sta). In all three basins the SDS-based simulations of daily runoff were as good as runoff produced using the Best-Sta timeseries. The NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries were able to capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all three basins, the NCEP-, DDS-, and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff showed little skill on a daily basis. When the precipitation and temperature biases were corrected in the NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries, the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improved dramatically, but, with the exception of the bias-corrected All-Sta data set, these simulations were never as accurate as the SDS-based simulations. This need for a bias correction may be somewhat troubling, but in the case of the large station-timeseries (All-Sta), the bias correction did indeed 'correct' for the change in scale. It is unknown if bias corrections to model output will be valid in a future climate. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for (and removal of

Weekly cycle in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis of the surface temperature over northern atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

Anthropogenic influences on climate has been detected in several climate variables, such as temperature increases and precipitation enhacement. An indicator of the anthropogenic effect is the identification of equivalent weekly cycle in climate parameters. In this case, we analyze the weekly cycle of the daily temperature at 2 metres from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis. The region of study is the window from 90ºW to 90ºE and from 88.5ºN to Equator and for the last 44 years. Results don´t show a clear pattern of the weekly cycle although it was possible to identify a minimum on Saturday in most of the grid points. We also analyze the weekly cycle of the temperature channel-2 MSU data that represent the lower troposphere and results don´t show any weekly cycle.

Microanalysis and preliminary pharmacokinetic studies of a sulfated polysaccharide from Laminaria japonica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenjing; Sun, Delin; Zhao, Xia; Jin, Weihua; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Quanbin

2016-01-01

A rapid, sensitive and reproducible high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method with post-column fluorescence derivatization has been developed to determine the amount of low-molecular-weight sulfated polysaccharide (GFS) in vivo. The metabolism of GFS has been shown to fit a two component model following its administration by intravenous injection, and its pharmacokinetic parameters were determined to be as follows: half-time of distribution phase ( t 1/2α)=11.24±2.93 min, half-time of elimination phase ( t 1/2β)=98.20±25.78 min, maximum concentration ( C max)=110.53 μg/mL and peak time ( T max)=5 min. The pharmacokinetic behavior of GFS was also investigated following intragastric administration. However, the concentration of GFS found in serum was too low for detection, and GFS could only be detected for up to 2 h after intragastric administration (200 mg/kg body weight). Thus, the bioavailability of GFS was low following intragastric administration because of the metabolism of GFS. In conclusion, HPLC with postcolumn derivatization could be used for quantitative microanalysis and pharmacokinetic studies to determine the presence of polysaccharides in the serum following intravenous injection.

A Cause and A Solution for the Underprediction of Extreme Wave Events in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellenson, A. N.; Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Thomson, J.; Brown, A. C.; Haller, M. C.

2016-12-01

Along the coastlines of Washington and Oregon, at least one 10 m wave height event occurs every year, and the strongest storms produce wave heights of 14-15 m. Extremely high wave heights can cause severe damage to coastal infrastructure and pose hazards to stakeholders along the coast. A system which can accurately predict such sea states is important for quantifying risk and aiding in preparation for extreme wave events. This study explores how to optimize forecast model performance for extreme wave events by utilizing different physics packages or wind input in four model configurations. The different wind input products consist of a reanalyzed Global Forecasting System (GFS) wind input and a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The physics packages are the Tolman-Chalikov (1996) ST2 physics package and the Ardhuin et al (2009) ST4 physics package associated with version 4.18 of WaveWatch III. A hindcast was previously performed to assess the wave character along the Pacific Northwest Coastline for wave energy applications. Inspection of hindcast model results showed that the operational model, which consisted of ST2 physics and GFS wind, underpredicted events where wave height exceeded six meters.The under-prediction is most severe for cases with the combined conditions of a distant cyclone and a strong coastal jet. Three such cases were re-analyzed with the four model configurations. Model output is compared with observations at NDBC buoy 46050, offshore of Newport, OR. The model configuration consisting of ST4 physics package and CFSR wind input performs best as compared with the original model, reducing significant wave height underprediction from 1.25 m to approximately 0.67 m and mean wave direction error from 30 degrees to 17 degrees for wave heights greater than 6 m. Spectral analysis shows that the ST4-CFSR model configuration best resolves southerly wave energy, and all model

Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA using Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Liang, S.; Wang, G.; Yao, Y.; Jiang, B.; Cheng, J.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (Rs) is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses [NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55] using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total) and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from -2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF) in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 was obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

The reliability of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions in diagnosing metabolic syndrome (MetS) among Gaza Strip Palestinians.

PubMed

Sirdah, Mahmoud M; Abu Ghali, Asmaa S; Al Laham, Nahed A

2012-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) which is a multifaceted syndrome, has been demonstrated as a common precursor for developing cardiovascular diseases and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus. Different diagnostic definitions for MetS have been proposed and recommended. We set up to evaluate the reliabilities of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions in diagnosing MetS among Gaza Strip Palestinians. This cross sectional study involved a randomly selected two hundred and thirty apparently healthy adults from the Gaza Strip. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, lipid profile, and questionnaire interviews were performed. The overall prevalence of MetS in our Gaza Strip cohort was 23.0% and 39.5% according to NCEP/ATP III and IDF definitions respectively (p<0.001). No significant differences were seen in the number of MetS components in individuals having MetS by either definition (mean 3.42 ± 0.63 vs 3.52 ± 0.69 respectively, p=0.865). Both IDF and NCEP/ATP III showed an increased prevalence of MetS with age, and body mass index (BMI), however they revealed different prevalence trends with sex. Except for BMI, there were no significant differences in the general and metabolic related characteristics between subjects with MetS of IDF and NCEP/ATP III definitions. Independently of the definition used, MetS is highly prevalent in Gaza Strip population, with a steady increase in MetS prevalence through age and BMI. The IDF definition tends to give higher values for MetS prevalence, and therefore could be more appropriate for diagnosing MetS in Gaza Strip cohort. Copyright © 2012 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using NCEP-ATPIII, IDF and WHO Definition and Its Agreement in Gwalior Chambal Region of Central India

PubMed Central

Yadav, Dhananjay; Mahajan, Sunil; Subramanian, Senthil K.; Bisen, Prakash Singh; Chung, Choon Hee; Prasad, GBKS

2013-01-01

The aim of study was to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) ATPIII Criteria, International Diabetes Federation and the World Health Organization (WHO) definitions were used in quantifying the metabolic syndrome and also the concordance between these three criteria’s used for identifying metabolic syndrome. Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 700 type 2 diabetic subjects from the urban areas of Gwalior Chambal region (Central India). Subjects in the age group of 28-87 yrs were included in the study. Type I diabetics, pregnant ladies and those with chronic viral and bacterial infections and serious metabolic disorders were excluded from the study. Fasting blood glucose, Blood lipids (T-cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL-cholesterol) were assessed and anthropometry blood pressure were measured from all the subjects. Results: The Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was found to be 45.8%, 57.7% and 28% following NCEP-ATPIII Criteria, IDF and WHO definitions, respectively. Using all the three definitions the prevalence was higher in women in all age groups. ATP III and IDF criteria showed good agreement (κ 0.68) compared to ATP III with WHO (κ 0.54) and IDF with WHO (κ 0.34) criteria. Highest prevalence was observed following IDF definition. Conclusions: A good agreement was observed between ATPIII and IDF criteria. Maximum prevalence of Metabolic syndrome was recorded when IDF criteria was followed. NCEP-ATPIII criteria for the diagnosis of MetS and this criterion reflected equal importance to the every variable and showed a good agreement between the different criteria used. PMID:24171882

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Center continuously monitors its NWP model performance against different performance measures, and AIRCFT GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for last 7 days spatial bias maps for different regions different regions GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for calendar months (time series, spatial and vertical

An Overview of the National Weather Service National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Feng, X.; Karsten, L. R.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP), in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) recently implemented version 1.0 of the National Water Model (NWM) into operations. This model is an hourly cycling uncoupled analysis and forecast system that provides streamflow for 2.7 million river reaches and other hydrologic information on 1km and 250m grids. It will provide complementary hydrologic guidance at current NWS river forecast locations and significantly expand guidance coverage and type in underserved locations. The core of this system is the NCAR-supported community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic model. It ingests forcing from a variety of sources including Multi-Sensor Multi-Radar (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), Rapid Refresh (RAP), Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast data. WRF-Hydro is configured to use the Noah-Multi Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate land surface processes. Separate water routing modules perform diffusive wave surface routing and saturated subsurface flow routing on a 250m grid, and Muskingum-Cunge channel routing down National Hydrogaphy Dataset Plus V2 (NHDPlusV2) stream reaches. River analyses and forecasts are provided across a domain encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS) and hydrologically contributing areas, while land surface output is available on a larger domain that extends beyond the CONUS into Canada and Mexico (roughly from latitude 19N to 58N). The system includes an analysis and assimilation configuration along with three forecast configurations. These include a short-range 15 hour deterministic forecast, a medium-Range 10 day deterministic forecast and a long-range 30 day 16-member ensemble forecast. United Sates Geologic Survey (USGS) streamflow

Evaluation of CMAQ and CAMx Ensemble Air Quality Forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E.; Kim, S.; Bae, C.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, B. U.

2015-12-01

The performance of Air quality forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign was evaluated. An forecast system has been operated to support the campaign's daily aircraft route decisions for airborne measurements to observe long-range transporting plume. We utilized two real-time ensemble systems based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) modeling framework and WRF-SMOKE- Community Multi_scale Air Quality (CMAQ) framework over northeastern Asia to simulate PM10 concentrations. Global Forecast System (GFS) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was used to provide meteorological inputs for the forecasts. For an additional set of retrospective simulations, ERA Interim Reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was also utilized to access forecast uncertainties from the meteorological data used. Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) and National Institute of Environment Research (NIER) Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) emission inventories are used for foreign and domestic emissions, respectively. In the study, we evaluate the CMAQ and CAMx model performance during the campaign by comparing the results to the airborne and surface measurements. Contributions of foreign and domestic emissions are estimated using a brute force method. Analyses on model performance and emissions will be utilized to improve air quality forecasts for the upcoming KORUS-AQ field campaign planned in 2016.

Size of graphene sheets determines the structural and mechanical properties of 3D graphene foams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Zhiqiang; Ye, Huilin; Zhou, Chi; Kröger, Martin; Li, Ying

2018-03-01

Graphene is recognized as an emerging 2D nanomaterial for many applications. Assembly of graphene sheets into 3D structures is an attractive way to enable their macroscopic applications and to preserve the exceptional mechanical and physical properties of their constituents. In this study, we develop a coarse-grained (CG) model for 3D graphene foams (GFs) based on the CG model for a 2D graphene sheet by Ruiz et al (2015 Carbon 82 103-15). We find that the size of graphene sheets plays an important role in both the structural and mechanical properties of 3D GFs. When their size is smaller than 10 nm, the graphene sheets can easily stack together under the influence of van der Waals interactions (vdW). These stacks behave like building blocks and are tightly packed together within 3D GFs, leading to high density, small pore radii, and a large Young’s modulus. However, if the sheet sizes exceed 10 nm, they are staggered together with a significant amount of deformation (bending). Therefore, the density of 3D GFs has been dramatically reduced due to the loosely packed graphene sheets, accompanied by large pore radii and a small Young’s modulus. Under uniaxial compression, rubber-like stress-strain curves are observed for all 3D GFs. This material characteristic is dominated by the vdW interactions between different graphene layers and slightly affected by the out-of-plane deformation of the graphene sheets. We find a simple scaling law E˜ {ρ }4.2 between the density ρ and Young’s modulus E for a model of 3D GFs. The simulation results reveal structure-property relations of 3D GFs, which can be applied to guide the design of 3D graphene assemblies with exceptional properties.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

2018-01-01

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

A Preliminary Examination of the Second Generation CMORPH Real-time Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, R.; Xie, P.; Wu, S.

2017-12-01

The second generation CMORPH (CMORPH2) has started test real-time production of 30-minute precipitation estimates on a 0.05olat/lon grid over the entire globe, from pole-to-pole. The CMORPH2 is built upon the Kalman Filter based CMORPH algorithm of Joyce and Xie (2011). Inputs to the system include rainfall and snowfall rate retrievals from passive microwave (PMW) measurements aboard all available low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, precipitation estimates derived from infrared (IR) observations of geostationary (GEO) and LEO platforms, and precipitation simulations from the NCEP operational global forecast system (GFS). Inputs from the various sources are first inter-calibrated to ensure quantitative consistencies in representing precipitation events of different intensities through PDF calibration against a common reference standard. The inter-calibrated PMW retrievals and IR-based precipitation estimates are then propagated from their respective observation times to the target analysis time along the motion vectors of the precipitating clouds. Motion vectors are first derived separately from the satellite IR based precipitation estimates and the GFS precipitation fields. These individually derived motion vectors are then combined through a 2D-VAR technique to form an analyzed field of cloud motion vectors over the entire globe. The propagated PMW and IR based precipitation estimates are finally integrated into a single field of global precipitation through the Kalman Filter framework. A set of procedures have been established to examine the performance of the CMORPH2 real-time production. CMORPH2 satellite precipitation estimates are compared against the CPC daily gauge analysis, Stage IV radar precipitation over the CONUS, and numerical model forecasts to discover potential shortcomings and quantify improvements against the first generation CMORPH. Special attention has been focused on the CMORPH behavior over high-latitude areas beyond the coverage of the first

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

Comparisons of regional Hydrological Angular Momentum (HAM) of the different models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Kolaczek, B.; Popinski, W.

2006-10-01

In the paper hydrological excitations of the polar motion (HAM) were computed from various hydrological data series (NCEP, ECMWF, CPC water storage and LaD World Simulations of global continental water). HAM series obtained from these four models and the geodetic excitation function GEOD computed from the polar motion COMB03 data were compared in the seasonal spectral band. The results show big differences of these hydrological excitation functions as well as of their spectra in the seasonal spectra band. Seasonal oscillations of the global geophysical excitation functions (AAM + OAM + HAM) in all cases besides the NCEP/NCAR model are smaller than the geodetic excitation function. It means that these models need further improvement and perhaps not only hydrological models need improvements.

The direct assimilation of cloud-affected satellite infrared radiance in the NCEP 3D-Hybrid system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

A function has been developed in NCEP 3D-Hybrid system to make use of Infrared radiances from Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on Meteosat-10(MSG-10) satellite in overcast cloudy conditions where effective cloud fractions were greater than 0.9. These cloudy radiances provide new information that currently assimilated in clear-sky condition from SEVIRI MSG-10. The model state vector is locally extended at observation locations, to include cloud top pressure as cloud parameters. This parameter describing a single-layer cloud are simultaneously estimated together with temperature and humidity inside the main analysis. Assimilation experiments have been run with the new scheme in which overcast radiance from SEVIRI MSG-10 are used in addition to the available clear-sky data. Two water vapor channels ( 6.2 and 7.3μm) and window channels (8.5, 11.2, 12.3 and 13.3μm) from SEVIRI MSG-10 are assimilated in the experiments. The overcast data locations typically represent 10% or less of the total due to the application of stringent quality control. However, The extra data that are used give rise to modified increments (largest for temperature and humidity) at and above the diagnosed cloud top. Also it improves the analysis fit to independent radiosonde observations and results in some small, but statistically significant, improvements in forecast quality.

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage Environmental Modeling Center Home News Organization Search Go Search Polar Go MMAB SST Analysis Main page About MMAB Our Mission Our Personnel EMC

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

The impact of model prediction error in designing geodetic networks for crustal deformation applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. R.

2017-12-01

Earth surface displacements measured at Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites record crustal deformation due, for example, to slip on faults underground. A primary objective in designing geodetic networks to study crustal deformation is to maximize the ability to recover parameters of interest like fault slip. Given Green's functions (GFs) relating observed displacement to motion on buried dislocations representing a fault, one can use various methods to estimate spatially variable slip. However, assumptions embodied in the GFs, e.g., use of a simplified elastic structure, introduce spatially correlated model prediction errors (MPE) not reflected in measurement uncertainties (Duputel et al., 2014). In theory, selection algorithms should incorporate inter-site correlations to identify measurement locations that give unique information. I assess the impact of MPE on site selection by expanding existing methods (Klein et al., 2017; Reeves and Zhe, 1999) to incorporate this effect. Reeves and Zhe's algorithm sequentially adds or removes a predetermined number of data according to a criterion that minimizes the sum of squared errors (SSE) on parameter estimates. Adapting this method to GNSS network design, Klein et al. select new sites that maximize model resolution, using trade-off curves to determine when additional resolution gain is small. Their analysis uses uncorrelated data errors and GFs for a uniform elastic half space. I compare results using GFs for spatially variable strike slip on a discretized dislocation in a uniform elastic half space, a layered elastic half space, and a layered half space with inclusion of MPE. I define an objective criterion to terminate the algorithm once the next site removal would increase SSE more than the expected incremental SSE increase if all sites had equal impact. Using a grid of candidate sites with 8 km spacing, I find the relative value of the selected sites (defined by the percent increase in SSE that further

The FALL3D Ash Cloud Dispersion Model and its Implementation at the Buenos Aires VAAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folch, A.; Suaya, M.; Costa, A.; Viramonte, J.

2009-12-01

Airborne volcanic ash and aerosols threat aerial navigation and affect the quality of air at medium to large distances downwind from the volcano. Airplane re-routing and airport disruption carry important socioeconomic consequences at regional and national levels. Models to forecast volcanic ash clouds constitute, together with satellite imagery, a valuable predictive tool during a crisis. FALL3D is an Eulerian ash cloud dispersion model based on the advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. The model runs at any scale, from regional to global. The dispersion model is off-line coupled with global (e.g. GFS, NMM-b) and mesoscalar (e.g. NMM-b, WRF, ETA) meteorological models and with re-analysis datasets. FALL3D has been recently installed at the Buenos Aires VAAC, depending on the Argentinean National Meteorological Service (SMN). In this presentation we summarize the characteristics of the model and its implementation at the VAAC, including the different domains, the meteorological forecast inputs (ETA or GFS) and the scenarios assumed for some critical volcanoes (Chaitén, Llaima, Lascar, etc.). Pre-defined scenarios are necessary to give an early first order prediction when data is poor or unavailable. This is particularly critical in Central Andes, were most active volcanoes are located in remote areas with poor or inexistent monitoring.

Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Ruonan

2018-01-01

The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983-2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1-3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1-5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1-5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal.

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC , state and local government Web resources and services. Real-time, global, sea surface temperature (RTG_SST_HR) analysis For a regional map, click the desired area in the global SST analysis and anomaly maps

About NCEP

Science.gov Websites

through programs of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development in partnership with the broader research community. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides official NWS ) provides analysis and forecast products, specializing in quantitative precipitation forecasts to five days

NR2E3 mutations in enhanced S-cone sensitivity syndrome (ESCS), Goldmann-Favre syndrome (GFS), clumped pigmentary retinal degeneration (CPRD), and retinitis pigmentosa (RP).

PubMed

Schorderet, Daniel F; Escher, Pascal

2009-11-01

NR2E3, also called photoreceptor-specific nuclear receptor (PNR), is a transcription factor of the nuclear hormone receptor superfamily whose expression is uniquely restricted to photoreceptors. There, its physiological activity is essential for proper rod and cone photoreceptor development and maintenance. Thirty-two different mutations in NR2E3 have been identified in either homozygous or compound heterozygous state in the recessively inherited enhanced S-cone sensitivity syndrome (ESCS), Goldmann-Favre syndrome (GFS), and clumped pigmentary retinal degeneration (CPRD). The clinical phenotype common to all these patients is night blindness, rudimental or absent rod function, and hyperfunction of the "blue" S-cones. A single p.G56R mutation is inherited in a dominant manner and causes retinitis pigmentosa (RP). We have established a new locus-specific database for NR2E3 (www.LOVD.nl/eye), containing all reported mutations, polymorphisms, and unclassified sequence variants, including novel ones. A high proportion of mutations are located in the evolutionarily-conserved DNA-binding domains (DBDs) and ligand-binding domains (LBDs) of NR2E3. Based on homology modeling of these NR2E3 domains, we propose a structural localization of mutated residues. The high variability of clinical phenotypes observed in patients affected by NR2E3-linked retinal degenerations may be caused by different disease mechanisms, including absence of DNA-binding, altered interactions with transcriptional coregulators, and differential activity of modifier genes.

Three-Dimensional Printed Graphene Foams.

PubMed

Sha, Junwei; Li, Yilun; Villegas Salvatierra, Rodrigo; Wang, Tuo; Dong, Pei; Ji, Yongsung; Lee, Seoung-Ki; Zhang, Chenhao; Zhang, Jibo; Smith, Robert H; Ajayan, Pulickel M; Lou, Jun; Zhao, Naiqin; Tour, James M

2017-07-25

An automated metal powder three-dimensional (3D) printing method for in situ synthesis of free-standing 3D graphene foams (GFs) was successfully modeled by manually placing a mixture of Ni and sucrose onto a platform and then using a commercial CO 2 laser to convert the Ni/sucrose mixture into 3D GFs. The sucrose acted as the solid carbon source for graphene, and the sintered Ni metal acted as the catalyst and template for graphene growth. This simple and efficient method combines powder metallurgy templating with 3D printing techniques and enables direct in situ 3D printing of GFs with no high-temperature furnace or lengthy growth process required. The 3D printed GFs show high-porosity (∼99.3%), low-density (∼0.015g cm -3 ), high-quality, and multilayered graphene features. The GFs have an electrical conductivity of ∼8.7 S cm -1 , a remarkable storage modulus of ∼11 kPa, and a high damping capacity of ∼0.06. These excellent physical properties of 3D printed GFs indicate potential applications in fields requiring rapid design and manufacturing of 3D carbon materials, for example, energy storage devices, damping materials, and sound absorption.

Seasonal evaluation of evapotranspiration fluxes from MODIS satellite and mesoscale model downscaled global reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Han, Dawei; Islam, Tanvir; Petropoulos, George P.; Gupta, Manika; Dai, Qiang

2016-04-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in hydrological modeling, which is not always available, especially for ungauged catchments. Satellite data, such as those available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global datasets via the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis are important sources of information for ETo. This study explored the seasonal performances of MODIS (MOD16) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaled global reanalysis datasets, such as ERA interim and NCEP-derived ETo, against ground-based datasets. Overall, on the basis of the statistical metrics computed, ETo derived from ERA interim and MODIS were more accurate in comparison to the estimates from NCEP for all the seasons. The pooled datasets also revealed a similar performance to the seasonal assessment with higher agreement for the ERA interim (r = 0.96, RMSE = 2.76 mm/8 days; bias = 0.24 mm/8 days), followed by MODIS (r = 0.95, RMSE = 7.66 mm/8 days; bias = -7.17 mm/8 days) and NCEP (r = 0.76, RMSE = 11.81 mm/8 days; bias = -10.20 mm/8 days). The only limitation with downscaling ERA interim reanalysis datasets using WRF is that it is time-consuming in contrast to the readily available MODIS operational product for use in mesoscale studies and practical applications.

Primary adipose-derived stem cells enriched by growth factor treatment improves cell adaptability toward cardiovascular differentiation in a rodent model of acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Chang, Jui-Chih; Lee, Ping-Chun; Lin, Yu-Chun; Lee, Kung-Wei; Hsu, Shan-hui

2011-01-01

The heterogeneous cell population in primary adipose-derived adult stem cells (ADAS) and difficulty in keeping their primitive properties have posed certain limitations on using these cells for cell therapy. Therefore, our objective was to generate a population of cells enriched from the adipose stromal-vascular fraction (SVF) with greater differentiation potential than ADAS and to explore the mechanism behind the repair of the injured myocardium in vivo. The distinct population of adipose stromal cells was enriched by immediate treatment of the growth factor cocktail (EGF and PDGF-BB) to the freshly isolated SVF. These cells (ADAS-GFs) had distinct cell morphology from ADAS and in average had a smaller size. They presented co-expression of CD140a (pericytic markers) and CD34 (hematopoietic marker), more obvious mesenchymal (CD13, CD29, CD44, CD90 and CD117) markers, but rare KDR, and were negative for CD45 and CD31. ADAS-GFs not only spontaneously expressed endothelial cell markers and formed capillary-like tubes on Matrigel but also clearly expressed early cardiomyocyte marker genes when embedded in methylcellulose-based medium. In Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats with left anterior descending artery (LAD)-induced myocardial infarction (MI), the ADAS-GFs transplanted group had the left ventricular function significantly improved compared with the ADAS transplanted group or the control group at 12 weeks post transplantation. The immunofluorescence staining revealed that the transplanted ADAS-GFs expressed GATA4, betamyosin heavy chain and troponin T protein but not vWF. More capillaries were also observed around the infarcted zone in the ADAS-GFs transplanted group. These data suggested that ADAS-GFs with a higher proangiogenic potential may restore the cardiac function of infarcted myocardium via the direct cardiomyocyte differentiation as well as angiogenesis recruitment.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

2014-07-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5-degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment six-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

This report provides the Energy Information Administration's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Implementing of lognormal humidity and cloud-related control variables for the NCEP GSI hybrid EnVAR Assimilation scheme.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S. J.; Kleist, D.; Ide, K.

2017-12-01

As the resolution of operational global numerical weather prediction system approach the meso-scale, then the assumption of Gaussianity for the errors at these scales may not valid. However, it is also true that synoptic variables that are positive definite in behavior, for example humidity, cannot be optimally analyzed with a Gaussian error structure, where the increment could force the full field to go negative. In this presentation we present the initial work of implementing a mixed Gaussian-lognormal approximation for the temperature and moisture variable in both the ensemble and variational component of the NCEP GSI hybrid EnVAR. We shall also lay the foundation for the implementation of the lognormal approximation to cloud related control variables to allow for a possible more consistent assimilation of cloudy radiances.

Theoretical Considerations of the Prigogine-Defay Ration with Regard to the Glass-Forming Ability of Drugs from Undercooled Melts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wyttenbach, Nicole; Kirchmeyer, Wiebke; Alsenz, Jochem

Drug behavior in undercooled melts is highly important for pharmaceutics with regard to amorphous solid dispersions, and therefore, categories were recently introduced that differentiate glass formers (GFs) from other drugs that are nonglass formers (nGFs). The present study is based on the assumption that molecular properties relevant for the so-called Prigogine–Defay (PD) ratio would be indicative of a drug’s glass-forming ability. The PD ratio depends in theory on the entropy of fusion and molar volume. Experimental data were gathered from a broad set of pharmaceutical compounds (n = 54) using differential scanning calorimetry. The obtained entropy of fusion and molarmore » volume were indeed found to significantly discriminate GFs from nGFs. In a next step, the entropy of fusion was predicted by different in silico methods. A first group contribution method provided rather unreliable estimates for the entropy of fusion, while an alternative in silico approach seemed more promising for drug categorization. Thus, a significant discrimination model employed molar volume, a so-called effective hydrogen bond number, and effective number of torsional bonds (or torsional units) to categorize GFs and nGFs (p ≤ 0.0000). The results led to new insights into drug vitrification and to practical rules of thumb. The latter may serve as guidance in pharmaceutical profiling and early formulation development with respect to amorphous drug formulations.« less

High-resolution visibility and air quality forecasting using multi-layer urban canopy model for highly urbanized Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piu NG, Chak; HAO, Song; Fat LAM, Yun

2015-04-01

Visibility is a universally critical element which affects the public in many aspects, including economic activities, health of local citizens and safety of marine transportation and aviation. The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) visibility equation, an empirical equation developed by USEPA, has been modified by various studies to fit into the application upon the Asian continent including Hong Kong and China. Often these studies focused on the improvement of the existing IMPROVE equation by modifying its particulate speciation using local observation data. In this study, we developed an Integrated Forecast System (IFS) to predict the next-day air quality and visibility using Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Energy Parameterization and Building Energy Model (WRF-BEP+BEM) and Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Unlike the other studies, the core of this study is to include detailed urbanization impacts with calibrated "IMPROVE equation for PRD" into the modeling system for Hong Kong's environs. The ultra-high resolution land cover information (~1km x 1km) from Google images, was digitized into the Geographic Information System (GIS) for preparing the model-ready input for IFS. The NCEP FNL (Final) Operation Global Analysis (FNL) and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) datasets were tested for both hind-cast and forecast cases, in order to calibrate the input of urban parameters in the WRF-BEP+BEM model. The evaluation of model performance with sensitivity cases was performed on sea surface temperature (SST), surface temperature (T), wind speed/direction with the major pollutants (i.e., PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2 and O3) using local observation and will be presented/discussed in this paper. References: 1. Y. L. Lee, R. Sequeira, Visibility degradation across Hong Kong its components and their relative contribution. Atmospheric Environment 2001, 35, 5861-5872. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00395-8 2. R. Zhang, Q

Green functions of graphene: An analytic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawlor, James A.; Ferreira, Mauro S.

2015-04-01

In this article we derive the lattice Green Functions (GFs) of graphene using a Tight Binding Hamiltonian incorporating both first and second nearest neighbour hoppings and allowing for a non-orthogonal electron wavefunction overlap. It is shown how the resulting GFs can be simplified from a double to a single integral form to aid computation, and that when considering off-diagonal GFs in the high symmetry directions of the lattice this single integral can be approximated very accurately by an algebraic expression. By comparing our results to the conventional first nearest neighbour model commonly found in the literature, it is apparent that the extended model leads to a sizeable change in the electronic structure away from the linear regime. As such, this article serves as a blueprint for researchers who wish to examine quantities where these considerations are important.

Applying horizontal diffusion on pressure surface to mesoscale models on terrain-following coordinates

Treesearch

Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Ching-Teng Lee; Yongxin Zhang; Yucheng Song; Ming-Chin Wu; Yi-Leng Chen; Kevin Kodama; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional spectral model and mesoscale spectral model (NCEP RSM/MSM) use a spectral computation on perturbation. The perturbation is defined as a deviation between RSM/MSM forecast value and their outer model or analysis value on model sigma-coordinate surfaces. The horizontal diffusion used in the models applies...

Performance evaluation of NCEP climate forecast system for the prediction of winter temperatures over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-11-01

The surface air temperature during the winter season (December-February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max, T min, and T mean, respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max, T min, and T mean) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max, T min, and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min, which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

Effects of multilayer snow scheme on the simulation of snow: Offline Noah and coupled with NCEP CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sujith, K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam

2017-03-01

The Noah version 2.7.1 is a moderately complex land surface model (LSM), with a single layer snowpack, combined with vegetation and underlying soil layer. Many previous studies have pointed out biases in the simulation of snow, which may hinder the skill of a forecasting system coupled with the Noah. In order to improve the simulation of snow by the Noah, a multilayer snow scheme (up to a maximum of six layers) is introduced. As Noah is the land surface component of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the modified Noah is also coupled with the CFSv2. The offline LSM shows large improvements in the simulation of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover area during snow season (October to June). CFSv2 with the modified Noah reveals a dramatic improvements in the simulation of snow depth and 2 m air temperature and moderate improvements in SWE. As suggested in the previous diagnostic and sensitivity study, improvements in the simulation of snow by CFSv2 have lead to the reduction in dry bias over the Indian subcontinent (by a maximum of 2 mm d-1). The multilayer snow scheme shows promising results in the simulation of snow as well as Indian summer monsoon rainfall and hence this development may be the part of the future version of the CFS.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures themore » main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.« less

Synoptic variability in the nudged version of LMDZ over the West African monsoon region during the AMMA campaign.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ly, M.; Roca, R.; Hourdin, F.

2009-04-01

The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique General circulation Model (LMDz) is ran in a nudged mode using various sets of atmospheric analysis during the wet season of 2006. The zoom capability of the model is used and reaches a mesh size of around 80km over the whole West African region. Sensitivity experiments have been performed in order to highlight the behaviour of the nudged model under a wide range of conditions: spatial and vertical resolution, zoom intensity, surface scheme formulation as well as for the forcing and driving parameters: relaxation time, type of analysis (ECMWF, NCEP/GFS, Sea Surface Temperature (climatology vs. 2006) and the nudging variables (wind, temperature, and combination). A combination of satellite data (E.g., GPCP rain estimates, METEOSAT Free tropospheric humidity,…) and in-situ observations acquired during the AMMA campaign (temperature and humidity profiles from radiosondes, GPS precipitable water,…) are all used to evaluate the simulations. The analysis is focused on the representation of the synoptic variability by the model in terms of rainfall and water vapour variability. It is shown that the model captures the free troposphere water vapour variability reasonably well with highly significant correlations between the radiosondes and the simulated fields. In the lowest levels of the atmosphere and in the upper troposphere, the agreement is less good. When the fields are filtered using a pass-band filter between 3-10 days, the correlation overall increases. Detailed of the sensitivity of these results to the simulation configuration mentioned above will be further discussed at the conference.

Synthesis and characterization of Acacia gum-Fe0Np-silica nanocomposite: an efficient Fenton-like catalyst for the degradation of Remazol Brilliant Violet dye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vandana; Singh, Jadveer; Srivastava, Preeti

2018-04-01

Acacia gum-Fe0Np-silica nanocomposite (GFS1) has been crafted through sol-gel technique using a two-step process that involved the reduction of iron salt to zerovalent iron nanoparticles (Fe0Nps) followed by their impregnation within Acacia gum-silica matrix. GFS1 was characterized using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM), energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), vibrating sample magnetometry (VSM), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) techniques. GFS1 is decorated with Fe0Nps of 5 nm average size. The VSM study revealed that GFS1 has ferromagnetic nature. GFS1 was used as a heterogeneous Fenton-like catalyst for the degradation of azo dyes using Remazol Brilliant Violet (RBV) dye as a model dye. In first 5 min of operation, > 86% dye degradation was achieved and 94% dye (from 100 mg L-1 dye solution) was successfully degraded in 50 min. The dye degradation followed pseudo-first-order kinetics. The GFS1 performed efficiently well over the wide range of dye concentrations (25-200 mg L-1). The catalyst was reused for eight repeated cycles where 12.5% dye degradation was possible even in the eighth cycle. The catalyst behaved fairly well for the degradation of Metanil Yellow (MY) and Orange G (OG) dyes also. Under the optimum conditions of RBV dye degradation, Metanil Yellow (MY) and Orange G (OG) dyes were degraded to the extent of 97 and 26.3%, respectively.

Current Status of NCEP Model Production

Science.gov Websites

the page. 00 UTC CYCLE 00 UTC NAM EVENT Average Start Time Average End Time STATUS COMMENTS DATA DUMP AND PREP 01:15:05 01:21:00 COMPLETE-01:21:06 ON-TIME ANALYSIS 01:21:09 01:33:21 COMPLETE-01:33:41 ON -TIME FORECAST F00-F84 01:34:39 02:43:55 COMPLETE-02:44:25 ON-TIME 12hr PRODUCTS 01:40:14 01:52:55

Platelet-Rich Plasma Derived Growth Factors Contribute to Stem Cell Differentiation in Musculoskeletal Regeneration.

PubMed

Qian, Yun; Han, Qixin; Chen, Wei; Song, Jialin; Zhao, Xiaotian; Ouyang, Yuanming; Yuan, Weien; Fan, Cunyi

2017-01-01

Stem cell treatment and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) therapy are two significant issues in regenerative medicine. Stem cells such as bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells, adipose-derived stem cells and periodontal ligament stem cells can be successfully applied in the field of tissue regeneration. PRP, a natural product isolated from whole blood, can secrete multiple growth factors (GFs) for regulating physiological activities. These GFs can stimulate proliferation and differentiation of different stem cells in injury models. Therefore, combination of both agents receives wide expectations in regenerative medicine, especially in bone, cartilage and tendon repair. In this review, we thoroughly discussed the interaction and underlying mechanisms of PRP derived GFs with stem cells, and assessed their functions in cell differentiation for musculoskeletal regeneration.

Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

NAEFS-2007

Science.gov Websites

the NCO PMB model changes web site for more information concerning NCEP model changes. http ://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Thanks, Joey Carr EFFECTIVE TUE DEC 4 2007...WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /CONTENT CHANGES: NOAAPORT DATA: - THE NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS WHICH ARE DELIVERED TO NOAAPORT

The Global Fleet Station Concept: Meeting Strategic Level Requirements

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-13

combined, and interagency assets to establish a persistent presence with a minimal footprint ashore in the Caribbean Basin and Central America in...the GFS concept and its 2007 deployment to Central America to determine if GFS meets defined strategic requirements. A qualitative analysis was...review the GFS concept and its 2007 deployment to Central America to determine if GFS meets defined strategic requirements. A qualitative analysis was

Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

Evaluating Transient Global and Regional Model Simulations: Bridging the Model/Observations Information Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Buja, L.; Stouffer, R.; Alpert, J.

2001-05-01

A major transition in our ability to evaluate transient Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations is occurring. Real-time and retrospective numerical weather prediction analysis, model runs, climate simulations and assessments are proliferating from a handful of national centers to dozens of groups across the world. It is clear that it is no longer sufficient for any one national center to develop its data services alone. The comparison of transient GCM results with the observational climate record is difficult for several reasons. One limitation is that the global distributions of a number of basic climate quantities, such as precipitation, are not well known. Similarly, observational limitations exist with model re-analysis data. Both the NCEP/NCAR, and the ECMWF, re-analysis eliminate the problems of changing analysis systems but observational data also contain time-dependant biases. These changes in input data are blended with the natural variability making estimates of true variability uncertain. The need for data homogeneity is critical to study questions related to the ability to evaluate simulation of past climate. One approach to correct for time-dependant biases and data sparse regions is the development and use of high quality 'reference' data sets. The primary U.S. National responsibility for the archive and service of weather and climate data rests with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). However, as supercomputers increase the temporal and spatial resolution of both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and GCM models, the volume and varied formats of data presented for archive at NCDC, using current communications technologies and data management techniques is limiting the scientific access of these data. To address this ever expanding need for climate and NWP information, NCDC along with the National Center's for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS is a

Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization with Machine Learning: An Introduction and Tackling the "Labeled Dataset" Challenge for Cyclones Around the World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfanti, C. E.; Stewart, J.; Lee, Y. J.; Govett, M.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.

2017-12-01

One of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) goals is to provide timely and reliable weather forecasts to support important decisions when and where people need it for safety, emergencies, planning for day-to-day activities. Satellite data is essential for areas lacking in-situ observations for use as initial conditions in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models, such as spans of the ocean or remote areas of land. Currently only about 7% of total received satellite data is selected for use and from that, an even smaller percentage ever are assimilated into NWP models. With machine learning, the computational and time costs needed for satellite data selection can be greatly reduced. We study various machine learning approaches to process orders of magnitude more satellite data in significantly less time allowing for a greater quantity and more intelligent selection of data to be used for assimilation purposes. Given the future launches of satellites in the upcoming years, machine learning is capable of being applied for better selection of Regions of Interest (ROI) in the magnitudes more of satellite data that will be received. This paper discusses the background of machine learning methods as applied to weather forecasting and the challenges of creating a "labeled dataset" for training and testing purposes. In the training stage of supervised machine learning, labeled data are important to identify a ROI as either true or false so that the model knows what signatures in satellite data to identify. Authors have selected cyclones, including tropical cyclones and mid-latitude lows, as ROI for their machine learning purposes and created a labeled dataset of true or false for ROI from Global Forecast System (GFS) reanalysis data. A dataset like this does not yet exist and given the need for a high quantity of samples, is was decided this was best done with automation. This process was done by developing a program similar to the National Center for

Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

PubMed Central

Zhang, Banglin; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

2016-01-01

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels. PMID:27698121

Assessing the aerosol direct and first indirect effects using ACM/GCM simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Gu, Y.; Xue, Y.; Lu, C. H.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols have been found to play an important role in global climate change but there are still large uncertainty in evaluating its role in the climate system. The aerosols generally affect global and regional climate through the scattering and the absorption of solar radiation (direct effect) and through their influences on cloud particle, number and sizes (first indirect effect). The indirect effect will further affects cloud water content, cloud top albedo and surface precipitations. In this study, we investigate the global climatic effect of aerosols using a coupled NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and a land surface model (SSiB2) The OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) database is used for aerosol effect. The OPAC data provides the optical properties (i.e., the extinction, scattering and absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, asymmetry factor and phase function) of ten types of aerosols under various relative humidity conditions for investigating the global direct and first indirect effects of dust aerosols. For indirect forcings due to liquid water, we follow the approach presented by Jiang et al (2011), in which a parameterization of cloud effective radius was calculated to describe its variance with convective strength and aerosol concentration. Since the oceans also play an important role on aerosol climatic effect, we also design a set of simulations using a coupled atmosphere/ocean model (CFS) to evaluate the sensitivity of aerosol effect with two-way atmosphere-ocean interactions.

The Specific Features of Pollution Transport in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diansky, Nikolay; Fomin, Vladimir; Gusev, Anatoly

2013-04-01

Two calculations of pollutant dispersal in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are presented: (1) during possible shipwrecks in the process of spent nuclear fuel transportation from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and (2) pollutant spread from the Japanese coast after the Fukushima 1 nuclear disaster on March 11, 2011. The circulation was simulated using a σ - coordinate ocean model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) developed at the INM RAS. The INMOM is based on the primitive equations using the spherical σ - coordinate system with a free ocean surface. The INMOM was realized for the Pacific Ocean basin from the equator to the Bering Strait with a high 1/8° spatial resolution for reproducing the mesoscale ocean variability. The pollutant dispersal in the case of possible shipwrecks was estimated for currents for a statistically average year with atmospheric forcing from Common Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) for normal year data. The pollution spread from the Fukushima 1 nuclear power plant (NPP) was estimated for currents calculated with the real atmospheric forcing in accordance with the NCEP GFS (0.5 degree grid). The simulation period of pollutant dispersal from Fukushima 1 was 17 days: from March 11 to 28, 2011. The results of numerical simulation show that pollutant dispersal from the Fukushima 1 spread eastward according to the Kuroshio. Moreover, exceeding of natural background radiation level was simulated in the narrow region of the Japanese coast with width of less than 50 km.

EMC Global Climate And Weather Modeling Branch Personnel

Science.gov Websites

Comparison Statistics which includes: NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias Reduction (Percents) CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias Reduction

Improved Survival of Full-Thickness Skin Graft With Low-Molecular Weight Heparin-Protamine Micro/Nanoparticles Including Platelet-Rich Plasma.

PubMed

Takabayashi, Yuki; Ishihara, Masayuki; Kuwabara, Masahiro; Takikawa, Makoto; Nakamura, Shingo; Hattori, Hidemi; Kiyosawa, Tomoharu

2017-05-01

Activated platelet-rich plasma secrets many growth factors (GFs), and low-molecular weight heparin-protamine micro/nanoparticles (LMWH-P M/NPs) significantly interact with, enhance, and stabilize the secreted GFs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of LMWH-P M/NPs and GFs (from platelet-rich plasma) on full-thickness skin graft (FTSG). A total of 96 inbred male rats were anesthetized and 4-cm full-thickness skin wound were created on dorsal skin of rats. LMWH-P M/NPs and GFs, LMWH-P M/NPs, GFs and saline (control) were then injected evenly into cutaneous muscles at the wound. The next day, the rats underwent FTSG. On the indicated days after FTSG, blood flow of FTSG site (wound bed and FTSG) was examined by 2-dimensional laser Doppler blood flowmeter. On 10 days, pictures of FTSG site were taken and FTSG survival rate was evaluated. Histologic analyses of skin samples were performed on 4, 7, and 10 days. Treatment of full-thickness skin wound with LMWH-P M/NPs and GFs effectively promoted survival rate of FTSG and blood flow of FTSG site compared with those treated with GFs, LMWH-P M/NPs, and control. LMWH-P M/NPs and GFs also promoted new vessel formation at FTSG site. The prior injection of LMWH-P M/NPs and GFs into wound bed increases FTSG survival rate, and promotes blood flow and angiogenesis at FTSG site.

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the

Evaluating tropospheric humidity from GPS radio occultation, radiosonde, and AIRS from high-resolution time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieckh, Therese; Anthes, Richard; Randel, William; Ho, Shu-Peng; Foelsche, Ulrich

2018-05-01

While water vapor is the most important tropospheric greenhouse gas, it is also highly variable in both space and time, and water vapor concentrations range over 3 orders of magnitude in the troposphere. These properties challenge all observing systems to accurately measure and resolve the vertical structure and variability of tropospheric humidity. In this study we characterize the humidity measurements of various observing techniques, including four separate Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) humidity retrievals (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) direct, UCAR one-dimensional variational retrieval (1D-Var), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC) 1D-Var, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) direct), radiosonde, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data. Furthermore, we evaluate how well the ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model perform in analyzing water vapor at different levels. To investigate detailed vertical structure, we analyzed time-height cross sections over four radiosonde stations in the tropical and subtropical western Pacific for the year 2007. We found that the accuracy of RO humidity is comparable to or better than both radiosonde and AIRS humidity over 800 to 400 hPa, as well as below 800 hPa if super-refraction is absent. The various RO retrievals of specific humidity agree within 20 % in the 1000-400 hPa layer, and differences are most pronounced above 600 hPa.

High Density Polyethylene Composites Reinforced with Hybrid Inorganic Fillers: Morphology, Mechanical and Thermal Expansion Performance

PubMed Central

Huang, Runzhou; Xu, Xinwu; Lee, Sunyoung; Zhang, Yang; Kim, Birm-June; Wu, Qinglin

2013-01-01

The effect of individual and combined talc and glass fibers (GFs) on mechanical and thermal expansion performance of the filled high density polyethylene (HDPE) composites was studied. Several published models were adapted to fit the measured tensile modulus and strength of various composite systems. It was shown that the use of silane-modified GFs had a much larger effect in improving mechanical properties and in reducing linear coefficient of thermal expansion (LCTE) values of filled composites, compared with the use of un-modified talc particles due to enhanced bonding to the matrix, larger aspect ratio, and fiber alignment for GFs. Mechanical properties and LCTE values of composites with combined talc and GF fillers varied with talc and GF ratio at a given total filler loading level. The use of a larger portion of GFs in the mix can lead to better composite performance, while the use of talc can help lower the composite costs and increase its recyclability. The use of 30 wt % combined filler seems necessary to control LCTE values of filled HDPE in the data value range generally reported for commercial wood plastic composites. Tensile modulus for talc-filled composite can be predicted with rule of mixture, while a PPA-based model can be used to predict the modulus and strength of GF-filled composites. PMID:28788322

A comparison of the new international diabetes federation definition of metabolic syndrome to WHO and NCEP definitions in Chinese, European and South Asian origin adults.

PubMed

Unwin, Nigel; Bhopal, Raj; Hayes, Louise; White, Martin; Patel, Sheila; Ragoobirsingh, Dalip; Alberti, George

2007-01-01

To compare the prevalence, agreement and phenotypic characteristics in three ethnic groups of the new International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition of metabolic syndrome (MS) to the World Health Organization (WHO) and national cholesterol education program (NCEP) definitions. Newcastle upon Tyne, England. Cross-sectional surveys. Chinese (171 men and 185 women), European (257 men and 301 women), and South Asian (264 men and 295 women) adults, ages 25 to 64 years. Anthropometric indices: blood pressure, fasting lipids, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, glucose intolerance, insulin resistance. IDF-defined MS was highly prevalent in all groups, ranging from 12.3% (95% CIs 7.4-17.2) in Chinese men to 45.5% (39.5-51.5) in South Asian men. In women, of all ethnic groups, more than 80% of those with WHO- or NCEP-defined MS also had IDF-defined MS. In men, however, agreement was less good. For example, in each ethnic group, more than a third of those with WHO-defined MS did not have IDF-defined MS. Within each ethnic group, the biological characteristics of those with MS by any definition were largely the same. However, differences existed between ethnic groups. For example, in those with IDF-defined MS, both South Asian men and women had significantly (P < .05) higher insulin resistance and significantly lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure than Europeans or Chinese. Agreement between the IDF and other definitions is better in women than men. The phenotype is similar within each ethnic group whatever the definition, but differs between groups suggesting that risks associated with MS differ by ethnic group.

Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2016-11-01

Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

Impact of soil moisture on regional spectral model simulations for South America

Treesearch

Shyh-Chin Chen; John Roads

2005-01-01

A regional simulation using the regional spectral model (RSM) with 50-km grid space increment over South America is described. NCEP/NCAR 28 vertical levels T62 spectral resolution reanalyses were used to initialize and force the regional model for a two-year period from March 1997 through March 1999. Initially, the RSM had a severe drying trend in the soil moisture...

Implementing Journaling in a Linux Shared Disk File System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preslan, Kenneth W.; Barry, Andrew; Brassow, Jonathan; Cattelan, Russell; Manthei, Adam; Nygaard, Erling; VanOort, Seth; Teigland, David; Tilstra, Mike; O'Keefe, Matthew;

Performance evaluation of WAVEWATCH III model in the Persian Gulf using different wind resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazeminezhad, Mohammad Hossein; Siadatmousavi, Seyed Mostafa

2017-07-01

The third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCH III, was employed to simulate bulk wave parameters in the Persian Gulf using three different wind sources: ERA-Interim, CCMP, and GFS-Analysis. Different formulations for whitecapping term and the energy transfer from wind to wave were used, namely the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497-518, 1996), WAM cycle 4 (BJA and WAM4), and Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917-1941, 2010) (TEST405 and TEST451 parameterizations) source term packages. The obtained results from numerical simulations were compared to altimeter-derived significant wave heights and measured wave parameters at two stations in the northern part of the Persian Gulf through statistical indicators and the Taylor diagram. Comparison of the bulk wave parameters with measured values showed underestimation of wave height using all wind sources. However, the performance of the model was best when GFS-Analysis wind data were used. In general, when wind veering from southeast to northwest occurred, and wind speed was high during the rotation, the model underestimation of wave height was severe. Except for the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497-518, 1996) source term package, which severely underestimated the bulk wave parameters during stormy condition, the performances of other formulations were practically similar. However, in terms of statistics, the Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917-1941, 2010) source terms with TEST405 parameterization were the most successful formulation in the Persian Gulf when compared to in situ and altimeter-derived observations.

Atmospheric Transport Modelling assessing radionuclide detection chances after the nuclear test announced by the DPRK in January 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, J. Ole; Ceranna, Lars

2016-04-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. The International Monitoring System (IMS) is in place and at about 90% complete to verify compliance with the CTBT. The stations of the waveform technologies are capable to detect seismic, hydro-acoustic and infrasonic signals for detection, localization, and characterization of explosions. The seismic signals of the DPRK event on 6 January 2016 were detected by many seismic stations around the globe and allow for localization of the event and identification as explosion (see poster by G. Hartmann et al.). However, the direct evidence for a nuclear explosion is only possible through the detection of nuclear fission products which may be released. For that 80 Radionuclide (RN) Stations are part of the designed IMS, about 60 are already operational. All RN stations are highly sensitive for tiny traces of particulate radionuclides in large volume air samplers. There are 40 of the RN stations designated to be equipped with noble gas systems detecting traces of radioactive xenon isotopes which are more likely to escape from an underground test cavity than particulates. Already 30 of the noble gas systems are operational. Atmospheric Transport Modelling supports the interpretation of radionuclide detections (and as appropriate non-detections) by connecting the activity concentration measurements with potential source locations and release times. In our study forecasts with the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model HYSPLIT (NOAA) and GFS (NCEP) meteorological data are considered to assess the plume propagation patterns for hypothetical releases at the known DPRK nuclear test site. The results show a considerable sensitivity of the IMS station RN 38 Takasaki (Japan) to a potential radionuclide release at the test site in the days and weeks following the explosion in January 2016. In addition, backtracking simulations with ECMWF analysis data in 0.2° horizontal resolution are

Integration of Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic for Urban Growth Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroutan, E.; Delavar, M. R.; Araabi, B. N.

2012-07-01

Urban growth phenomenon as a spatio-temporal continuous process is subject to spatial uncertainty. This inherent uncertainty cannot be fully addressed by the conventional methods based on the Boolean algebra. Fuzzy logic can be employed to overcome this limitation. Fuzzy logic preserves the continuity of dynamic urban growth spatially by choosing fuzzy membership functions, fuzzy rules and the fuzzification-defuzzification process. Fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy rule sets as the heart of fuzzy logic are rather subjective and dependent on the expert. However, due to lack of a definite method for determining the membership function parameters, certain optimization is needed to tune the parameters and improve the performance of the model. This paper integrates genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic as a genetic fuzzy system (GFS) for modeling dynamic urban growth. The proposed approach is applied for modeling urban growth in Tehran Metropolitan Area in Iran. Historical land use/cover data of Tehran Metropolitan Area extracted from the 1988 and 1999 Landsat ETM+ images are employed in order to simulate the urban growth. The extracted land use classes of the year 1988 include urban areas, street, vegetation areas, slope and elevation used as urban growth physical driving forces. Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve as an fitness function has been used to evaluate the performance of the GFS algorithm. The optimum membership function parameter is applied for generating a suitability map for the urban growth. Comparing the suitability map and real land use map of 1999 gives the threshold value for the best suitability map which can simulate the land use map of 1999. The simulation outcomes in terms of kappa of 89.13% and overall map accuracy of 95.58% demonstrated the efficiency and reliability of the proposed model.

Platelet-Rich Plasma-Loaded Poly(d,l-lactide)-Poly(ethylene glycol)-Poly(d,l-lactide) Hydrogel Dressing Promotes Full-Thickness Skin Wound Healing in a Rodent Model

PubMed Central

Qiu, Manle; Chen, Daoyun; Shen, Chaoyong; Shen, Ji; Zhao, Huakun; He, Yaohua

2016-01-01

Traditional therapeutic methods for skin wounds have many disadvantages, and new wound dressings that can facilitate the healing process are thus urgently needed. Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) contains multiple growth factors (GFs) and shows a significant capacity to heal soft tissue wounds. However, these GFs have a short half-life and deactivate rapidly; we therefore need a sustained delivery system to overcome this shortcoming. In this study, poly(d,l-lactide)-poly(ethylene glycol)-poly(d,l-lactide) (PDLLA-PEG-PDLLA: PLEL) hydrogel was successfully created as delivery vehicle for PRP GFs and was evaluated systematically. PLEL hydrogel was injectable at room temperature and exhibited a smart thermosensitive in situ gel-formation behavior at body temperature. In vitro cell culture showed PRP-loaded PLEL hydrogel (PRP/PLEL) had little cytotoxicity, and promoted EaHy926 proliferation, migration and tube formation; the factor release assay additionally indicated that PLEL realized the controlled release of PRP GFs for as long as 14 days. When employed to treat rodents’ full-thickness skin defects, PRP/PLEL showed a significantly better ability to raise the number of both newly formed and mature blood vessels compared to the control, PLEL and PRP groups. Furthermore, the PRP/PLEL-treated group displayed faster wound closure, better reepithelialization and collagen formation. Taken together, PRP/PLEL provides a promising strategy for promoting angiogenesis and skin wound healing, which extends the potential of this dressing for clinical application. PMID:27347938

Inhibition of the Differentiation of Monocyte-Derived Dendritic Cells by Human Gingival Fibroblasts

PubMed Central

Séguier, Sylvie; Tartour, Eric; Guérin, Coralie; Couty, Ludovic; Lemitre, Mathilde; Lallement, Laetitia; Folliguet, Marysette; Naderi, Samah El; Terme, Magali; Badoual, Cécile; Lafont, Antoine; Coulomb, Bernard

2013-01-01

We investigated whether gingival fibroblasts (GFs) can modulate the differentiation and/or maturation of monocyte-derived dendritic cells (DCs) and analyzed soluble factors that may be involved in this immune modulation. Experiments were performed using human monocytes in co-culture with human GFs in Transwell® chambers or using monocyte cultures treated with conditioned media (CM) from GFs of four donors. The four CM and supernatants from cell culture were assayed by ELISA for cytokines involved in the differentiation of dendritic cells, such as IL-6, VEGF, TGFβ1, IL-13 and IL-10. The maturation of monocyte-derived DCs induced by LPS in presence of CM was also studied. Cell surface phenotype markers were analyzed by flow cytometry. In co-cultures, GFs inhibited the differentiation of monocyte-derived DCs and the strength of this blockade correlated with the GF/monocyte ratio. Conditioned media from GFs showed similar effects, suggesting the involvement of soluble factors produced by GFs. This inhibition was associated with a lower stimulatory activity in MLR of DCs generated with GFs or its CM. Neutralizing antibodies against IL-6 and VEGF significantly (P<0.05) inhibited the inhibitory effect of CM on the differentiation of monocytes-derived DCs and in a dose dependent manner. Our data suggest that IL-6 is the main factor responsible for the inhibition of DCs differentiation mediated by GFs but that VEGF is also involved and constitutes an additional mechanism. PMID:23936476

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Observed Structure and Characteristics of Cold Pools over Tropical Oceans using Vector Wind Retrievals and WRF simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, P.; Nesbitt, S. W.; Lang, T. J.; Chronis, T.; Thayer, J. D.; Hence, D. A.

2017-12-01

Cold pools generated in the wake of convective activity can enhance the surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and also changes in evaporation out of, and fresh water flux into, the ocean. Recent studies have shown that over the open ocean, cold pool outflow boundaries and their intersections can organize and initiate a spectrum of deep convective clouds, which is a key driver of shallow and deep convection over conditionally-unstable tropical oceans. The primary goal of this study is to understand the structure and characteristics of cold pools over the tropical oceans using observations. With the idea that cold pools will have strong wind gradients at their boundaries, we use ASCAT vector wind retrievals. We identify regions of steep gradients in wind vectors as gradient features (GFs), akin to cold pools. Corresponding to these GFs, sensible and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the observed winds and background temperatures from MERRA-2 reanalysis. To evaluate the proposed technique, cold pools were observed using S-PolKa radar from the DYNAMO/AMIE field campaign in the Indian Ocean for the period of 1 October 2011 to 31 March 2012 and were compared with ASCAT GFs. To relate the thermodynamic and kinematic characteristics of observed and simulated cold pools, simulations were carried out on WRF on a 3-km domain explicitly. The areas of cold pools were identified in the models using virtual temperature (Tv), which is a direct measure of air density, while GFs were identified using model simulated winds. Quantitative measures indicate that GFs are highly correspondent with model-simulated cold pools. In global measurements of cold pools from 2007-2015, it is possible to examine the characteristics of GFs across all tropical ocean basins, and relate them to meteorological conditions, as well as the characteristics of the parent precipitation systems. Our results indicate that while there is a general relationship between the amount of precipitation

Precipitation Retrievals in typhoon domain combining of FY3C MWHTS Observations and WRF Predicted Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jieying, HE; Shengwei, ZHANG; Na, LI

2017-02-01

A passive sub-millimeter precipitation retrievals algorithm is provided based on Microwave Humidity and Temperature Sounder (MWHTS) onboard the Chinese Feng Yun 3C (FY-3C) satellite. Using the validated global reference physical model NCEP/WRF/VDISORT), NCEP data per 6 hours are downloaded to run the Weather Research and Forecast model WRF, and derive the typical precipitation data from the whole world. The precipitation retrieval algorithm can operate either on land or on seawater for global. To simply the calculation procedure and save the training time, principle component analysis (PCA) was adapted to filter out the redundancy caused by scanning angle and surface effects, as well as system noise. According to the comparison and validation combing with other precipitation sources, it is demonstrated that the retrievals are reliable for surface precipitation rate higher than 0.1 mm/h at 15km resolution.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

Autonomous water sampling for long-term monitoring of trace metals in remote environments.

PubMed

Kim, Hyojin; Bishop, James K B; Wood, Todd J; Fung, Inez Y

2012-10-16

A remotely controlled autonomous method for long-term high-frequency sampling of environmental waters in remote locations is described. The method which preserves sample integrity of dissolved trace metals and major ions for month-long periods employs a gravitational filtration system (GFS) that separates dissolved and particulate phases as samples are collected. The key elements of GFS are (1) a modified "air-outlet" filter holder to maximize filtration rate and thus minimize filtration artifacts; and (2) the direct delivery of filtrate to dedicated bottle sets for specific analytes. Depth and screen filter types were evaluated with depth filters showing best performance. GFS performance is validated using ground, stream, and estuary waters. Over 30 days of storage, samples with GFS treatment had average recoveries of 95 ± 19% and 105 ± 7% of Fe and Mn, respectively; without GFS treatment, average recoveries were only 16% and 18%. Dissolved major cations K, Mg, and Na were stable independent of collection methodology, whereas Ca in some groundwater samples decreased up to 42% without GFS due to CaCO(3) precipitation. In-field performance of GFS equipped autosamplers is demonstrated using ground and streamwater samples collected at the Angelo Coast Range Reserve, California from October 3 to November 4 2011.

An online mineral dust model within the global/regional NMMB: current progress and plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.

2008-12-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are occurring on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the high-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors in surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by major meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently about 1 degree x 1 degree . Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for mesoscale systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other significant uncertainties in dust emissions resulting from such approaches are related to the misrepresentation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. In order to significantly reduce these uncertainties, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently implementing a mineral dust model coupled on-line with the new global/regional NMMB atmospheric model using the ESMF framework under development in NOAA/NCEP/EMC. The NMMB is an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME extending from meso to global scales, and including non-hydrostatic option and improved tracer advection. This model is planned to become the next-generation NCEP mesoscale model for operational weather forecasting in North America. Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system Eta/DREAM (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/). First successful global simulations show the potentials of such an approach and compare well with DREAM regionally. Ongoing developments include improvements in dust size distribution representation, sedimentation, dry deposition, wet

Analysis of the nexus between population, water resources and Global Food Security highlights significance of governance and research investments and policy priorities.

PubMed

Yunusa, Isa A M; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Gibberd, Mark R

2018-05-10

Analyses of sensitivity of Global Food Security (GFS) score to a key set of supply or demand factors often suggest population and water supply as being the most critical and on which policies tend to focus. To explore other policy options, we characterised the nexus between GFS and a set of supply or demand factors including defining including population, agricultural and industrial water-use, agricultural publications (as a surrogate for investment in agricultural research and development [R&D]), and corruption perception index (CPI), to reveal opportunities for attaining enduring GFS. We found that despite being the primary driver of demand for food, population showed no significant correlation with GFS scores. Similarly agricultural water-use was poorly correlated with GFS scores, except in countries where evaporation exceeds precipitation and irrigation is significant. However, GFS had a strong positive association with industrial water-use as a surrogate for overall industrialisation. Recent expansions in cultivated land area failed to yield concomitant improvements in GFS score since such expansions have been mostly into marginal lands with low productivity and also barely compensated for lands retired from cropping in several developed economies. However, GFS was positively associated with agricultural R&D investments, as it was with the CPI scores. The apparent and relative strengths of these drivers on GFS outcome amongst countries were in the order: industrial water-use ≈ publication rate ≈ corruption perception > agricultural water-use > population. We concluded by suggesting that to enshrine enduring food security, policies should prioritise (1) increased R&D investments that address farmer needs, and (2) governance mechanisms that promote accountability in both research and production value chains. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Regional Spectral Model Workshop in memory of John Roads and Masao Kanamitsu

Treesearch

Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Shyh-Chin Chen; Songyou Hong; Hideki Kanamaru; Thomas Reichler; Takeshi Enomoto; Dian Putrasahan; Bruce T. Anderson; Sasha Gershunov; Haiqin Li; Kei Yoshimura; Nikolaus Buenning; Diane Boomer

2014-01-01

The committee for the 12th International Regional Spectral Model (RSM) Workshop drew its members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the U.S. Forest Service, Yonsei University, the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, the University of Tokyo, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Hokkaido University,...

Tropical-Cyclone Formation: Theory and Idealized Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

to saturation at the sea-surface temperature and the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface...and Atmospheric Administration; IFEX = Intensity Forecasting Experiment. 15GFS = NOAA Global Forecasting System ; NOGAPS = Navy Operational Global... Atmospheric Prediction System ; UKMET = United Kingdom Meteorological Office. 16 http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html 18 overcomes

Rate-programming of nano-particulate delivery systems for smart bioactive scaffolds in tissue engineering.

PubMed

Izadifar, Mohammad; Haddadi, Azita; Chen, Xiongbiao; Kelly, Michael E

2015-01-09

Development of smart bioactive scaffolds is of importance in tissue engineering, where cell proliferation, differentiation and migration within scaffolds can be regulated by the interactions between cells and scaffold through the use of growth factors (GFs) and extra cellular matrix peptides. One challenge in this area is to spatiotemporally control the dose, sequence and profile of release of GFs so as to regulate cellular fates during tissue regeneration. This challenge would be addressed by rate-programming of nano-particulate delivery systems, where the release of GFs via polymeric nanoparticles is controlled by means of the methods of, such as externally-controlled and physicochemically/architecturally-modulated so as to mimic the profile of physiological GFs. Identifying and understanding such factors as the desired release profiles, mechanisms of release, physicochemical characteristics of polymeric nanoparticles, and externally-triggering stimuli are essential for designing and optimizing such delivery systems. This review surveys the recent studies on the desired release profiles of GFs in various tissue engineering applications, elucidates the major release mechanisms and critical factors affecting release profiles, and overviews the role played by the mathematical models for optimizing nano-particulate delivery systems. Potentials of stimuli responsive nanoparticles for spatiotemporal control of GF release are also presented, along with the recent advances in strategies for spatiotemporal control of GF delivery within tissue engineered scaffolds. The recommendation for the future studies to overcome challenges for developing sophisticated particulate delivery systems in tissue engineering is discussed prior to the presentation of conclusions drawn from this paper.

Estimation of Volume and Freshwater Flux from the Arctic Ocean using SMAP and NCEP CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulusu, S.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal monitoring of sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role globally and especially over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic ice melt has led to an influx of freshwater into the Arctic environment, a process that can be observed in SSS. The recently launched NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is primarily designed for the global monitoring of soil moisture using L- band (1.4GHz) frequency. SMAP also has the capability of measuring SSS and can thus extend the NASA's Aquarius salinity mission (ended June 7, 2015), salinity data record with improved temporal/spatial sampling. In this research an attempt is made to investigate the retrievability of SSS over the Arctic from SMAP satellite. The objectives of this study are to verify the use of SMAP sea surface salinity (and freshwater) variability in the Arctic Ocean and the extent to estimate freshwater, salt and volume flux from the Arctic Ocean. Along with SMAP data we will use NASA's Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellites (ICESat and ICESat-2), and ESA's CryoSat-2, and NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites data to estimate ice melt in the Arctic. The preliminary results from SMAP compared well with the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) salinity data in this region capturing patterns fairly well over the Arctic.

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Van den Dool, H. M.

2013-12-01

Since August 2011, the realtime seasonal forecasts of U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the first year, the participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f for the realtime NMME forecast. The Canadian Meteorological Center CanCM3 and CM4 replaced the CFSv1 and IRI's models in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects three variables, including precipitation, 2-meter temperature and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean with equal weight for each model and constructs a probability forecast with equal weight for each member. The team then provides the NMME forecast to the operational CPC forecaster responsible for the seasonal and monthly outlook each month. Verification of the seasonal and monthly prediction from NMME is conducted by calculating the anomaly correlation (AC) from the 30-year hindcasts (1982-2011) of individual model and NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. The experimental (Phase I) stage of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.

High-performance wearable supercapacitors fabricated with surface activated continuous filament graphite fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Dedong; Yu, Xin; Chen, Tinghan; Wang, Shu; Tan, Hua; Liu, Hong; Wang, Zhong Lin; Li, Linlin

2017-08-01

Generally, carbon or graphite fibers (GFs) are used as the supporting materials for the preparation of flexible supercapacitors (SCs) by assembling various electrochemically active nanomaterials on them. A facile and rapid electrochemical oxidation method with a voltage of 3 V in a mixed H2SO4-HNO3 solution for 2-15 min is proposed to active continuous filament GFs. Detailed structural characterization, SEM, TEM, XRD, Raman and XPS demonstrate that the GFs-8 (oxidized for 8 min) possessing high specific surface area which provided numerous electrochemical sites and a large number of oxygen-containing functional groups producing pseudocapacitance. Cyclic voltammetric (CV), galvanostatic charge-discharge measurements and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) are conducted to test the capacitive of GFs and activated GFs. The capacitance of GFs-8 reaches as high as 570 mF cm-1 at the current density of 1 mA cm-1 in LiCl electrolyte, a 1965-fold enhancement with respect to the pristine GFs (0.29 mF cm-1). The fabricated fiber solid-state supercapacitors (SSCs) provide high energy density of 0.68 mWh cm-3 at the power density 3.3 W cm-3 and have excellent durability with 90% capacitance retention after 10000 cycles. In addition, such fiber SSCs features flexibility and mechanical stability, which may have wide applications in wearable electronic devices.

Experimental weekly to seasonal U.S. forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model

Treesearch

J. Roads

2004-01-01

As described previously Roads et al. 2001a, hereafter RCF), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making routine, near-real-time, long-range experimental global and regional dynamical forecasts since 27 September 1997. The global spectral model (GSM) used for these forecasts is that of National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP;...

Genetic fuzzy system for online structural health monitoring of composite helicopter rotor blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, Prashant M.; Ganguli, Ranjan

2007-07-01

A structural health monitoring (SHM) methodology is developed for composite rotor blades. An aeroelastic analysis of composite rotor blades based on the finite element method in space and time and with implanted matrix cracking and debonding/delamination damage is used to obtain measurable system parameters such as blade response, loads and strains. A rotor blade with a two-cell airfoil section and [0/±45/90]s family of laminates is used for numerical simulations. The model based measurements are contaminated with noise to simulate real data. Genetic fuzzy systems (GFS) are developed for global online damage detection using displacement and force-based measurement deviations between damaged and undamaged conditions and for local online damage detection using strains. It is observed that the success rate of the GFS depends on number of measurements, type of measurements and training and testing noise level. The GFS work quite well with noisy data and is recommended for online SHM of composite helicopter rotor blades.

A new voxel-based model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS atmospheric sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Changyong; Wu, Suqin; Wang, Xiaoming; Hu, Andong; Wang, Qianxin; Zhang, Kefei

2017-06-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a powerful atmospheric observing system for determining precipitable water vapour (PWV). In the detection of PWV using GPS, the atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter for the conversion of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) to PWV since the quality of PWV is affected by the accuracy of Tm. In this study, an improved voxel-based Tm model, named GWMT-D, was developed using global reanalysis data over a 4-year period from 2010 to 2013 provided by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The performance of GWMT-D was assessed against three existing empirical Tm models - GTm-III, GWMT-IV, and GTmN - using different data sources in 2014 - the NCEP reanalysis data, surface Tm data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System and radiosonde measurements. The results show that the new GWMT-D model outperforms all the other three models with a root-mean-square error of less than 5.0 K at different altitudes over the globe. The new GWMT-D model can provide a practical alternative Tm determination method in real-time GPS-PWV remote sensing systems.

Growth factors delivery from hybrid PCL-starch scaffolds processed using supercritical fluid technology.

PubMed

Diaz-Gomez, Luis; Concheiro, Angel; Alvarez-Lorenzo, Carmen; García-González, Carlos A

2016-05-20

Synthetic polymeric scaffolds to be used as surrogates of autologous bone grafts should not only have suitable physicochemical and mechanical properties, but also contain bioactive agents such as growth factors (GFs) to facilitate the tissue growth. For this purpose, cost-effective and autologous GFs sources are preferred to avoid some post-surgery complications after implantation, like immunogenicity or disease transmission, and the scaffolds should be processed using methods able to preserve GFs activity. In this work, poly(ɛ-caprolactone) (PCL) scaffolds incorporating GFs were processed using a green foaming process based on supercritical fluid technology. Preparation rich in growth factors (PRGF), a natural and highly available cocktail of GFs obtained from platelet rich plasma (PRP), was used as GF source. PCL:starch:PRGF (85:10:5 weight ratio) porous solid scaffolds were obtained by a supercritical CO2-assisted foaming process at 100 bar and 37 °C with no need of post-processing steps. Bioactivity of GFs after processing and scaffold cytocompatibility were confirmed using mesenchymal stem cells. The performance of starch as GF control release component was shown to be dependent on starch pre-gelification conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution and transport of water vapor in the UTLS over the Tibetan Plateau as inferred from the MLS satellite data and WRF model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, S.; Kar, S. C.

2016-12-01

Water vapor is an important minor constituent in the lower stratosphere as it influences the stratospheric chemistry and total radiation budget. The spatial distribution of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite at 100 hPa level shows prominent maxima over the Tibetan Plateau during August 2015. The Asian monsoon upper level anticyclone is also known to occur over this region during this period. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and National Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) observed daily gridded rainfall data shows moderate to heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting active convection from 26 July to 10 August 2015. The atmospheric conditions are simulated over the Asian region for the 15-day period using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations are carried out using two nested domains with resolution of 12 km and 4 km. The initial and boundary conditions are taken from the NGFS (up-graded version of the NCEP GFS) data. The WRF WVMR profiles are observed to be comparatively moist than the MLS profiles in the UTLS region over the Tibetan Plateau. This may be due to the relatively higher temperatures (1-2 K) simulated in the WRF model near 100 hPa level. It is noted that the WRF model has a drying tendency at all the levels. The UTLS WVMR and temperatures show poor sensitivity to the convective schemes. The parent domain and the explicit convective scheme simulate almost same moisture over time in the inner domain. The cloud micro-physics is observed to play a rather important role in controlling the UTLS water vapor content. The WSM-6 convective scheme is observed to simulate the UTLS moisture comparatively well and therefore the processes associated with the formation of ice, snow and graupel formation may be of much more importance in controlling the UTLS WVMR in the WRF model. The 24 hr, 48 hr and 72 hr forecast averaged for the 15-day period shows that

The Sensitivity of a Global Ocean Model to Wind Forcing: A Test Using Sea Level and Wind Observations from Satellites and Operational Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1997-01-01

Investigated in this study is the response of a global ocean general circulation model to forcing provided by two wind products: operational analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); observations made by the ERS-1 radar scatterometer.

Impact of assimilation of INSAT cloud motion vector (CMV) wind for the prediction of a monsoon depression over Indian Ocean using a mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, V. F.; Chandrasekar, A.; Singh, Devendra

2006-12-01

The present study utilized the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), to assimilate the INSAT-CMV (Indian National Satellite System-Cloud Motion Vector) wind observations using analysis nudging to improve the prediction of a monsoon depression which occurred over the Arabian Sea, India during 14 September 2005 to 17 September 2005. NCEP-FNL analysis has been utilized as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and two sets of numerical experiments were designed to reveal the impact of assimilation of satellite-derived winds. The model was integrated from 14 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 00 UTC, with just the NCEP FNL analysis in the NOFDDA run. In the FDDA run, the NCEP FNL analysis fields were improved by assimilating the INSAT-CMV (wind speed and wind direction) as well as QuickSCAT sea surface winds during the 24 hour pre-forecast period (14 September 2005 00 UTC to 15 September 2005 00 UTC) using analysis nudging. The model was subsequently run in the free forecast mode from 15 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 12 UTC. The simulated sea level pressure field from the NOFDDA run reveals a relatively stronger system as compared to the FDDA run. However, the sea level pressure fields corresponding to the FDDA run are closer to the analysis. The simulated lower tropospheric winds from both experiments reveal a well-developed cyclonic circulation as compared to the analysis.

VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

An Intercomparison of Lidar Ozone and Temperature Measurements From the SOLVE Mission With Predicted Model Values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burris, John; McGee, Thomas J.; Hoegy, Walt; Lait, Leslie; Sumnicht, Grant; Twigg, Larry; Heaps, William

2000-01-01

Temperature profiles acquired by Goddard Space Flight Center's AROTEL lidar during the SOLVE mission onboard NASA's DC-8 are compared with predicted values from several atmospheric models (DAO, NCEP and UKMO). The variability in the differences between measured and calculated temperature fields was approximately 5 K. Retrieved temperatures within the polar vortex showed large regions that were significantly colder than predicted by the atmospheric models.

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Treesearch

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Reference List Table of Contents NCEP OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS VERIFICATION (GRID VS.OBS) WEB PAGE (NCEP EXPERIMENTAL PAGE, INTERNAL USE ONLY) Interactive web page tool for

Multidimensional Generalized Functions in Aeroacoustics and Fluid Mechanics. Part 1; Basic Concepts and Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farassat, Fereidoun; Myers, Michael K.

2011-01-01

This paper is the first part of a three part tutorial on multidimensional generalized functions (GFs) and their applications in aeroacoustics and fluid mechanics. The subject is highly fascinating and essential in many areas of science and, in particular, wave propagation problems. In this tutorial, we strive to present rigorously and clearly the basic concepts and the tools that are needed to use GFs in applications effectively and with ease. We give many examples to help the readers in understanding the mathematical ideas presented here. The first part of the tutorial is on the basic concepts of GFs. Here we define GFs, their properties and some common operations on them. We define the important concept of generalized differentiation and then give some interesting elementary and advanced examples on Green's functions and wave propagation problems. Here, the analytic power of GFs in applications is demonstrated with ease and elegance. Part 2 of this tutorial is on the diverse applications of generalized derivatives (GDs). Part 3 is on generalized Fourier transformations and some more advanced topics. One goal of writing this tutorial is to convince readers that, because of their powerful operational properties, GFs are absolutely essential and useful in engineering and physics, particularly in aeroacoustics and fluid mechanics.

Withaferin A effectively targets soluble vimentin in the glaucoma filtration surgical model of fibrosis.

PubMed

Bargagna-Mohan, Paola; Deokule, Sunil P; Thompson, Kyle; Wizeman, John; Srinivasan, Cidambi; Vooturi, Sunil; Kompella, Uday B; Mohan, Royce

2013-01-01

Withaferin A (WFA) is a natural product that binds to soluble forms of the type III intermediate filament (IF) vimentin. Currently, it is unknown under what pathophysiological contexts vimentin is druggable, as cytoskeltal vimentin-IFs are abundantly expressed. To investigate druggability of vimentin, we exploited rabbit Tenon's capsule fibroblast (RbTCF) cell cultures and the rabbit glaucoma filtration surgical (GFS) model of fibrosis. WFA potently caused G₀/G₁ cell cycle inhibition (IC₅₀ 25 nM) in RbTCFs, downregulating ubiquitin E3 ligase skp2 and inducing p27(Kip1) expression. Transforming growth factor (TGF)-ß-induced myofibroblast transformation caused development of cell spheroids with numerous elongated invadopodia, which WFA blocked potently by downregulating soluble vimentin and α-smooth muscle actin (SMA) expression. In the pilot proof-of-concept study using the GFS model, subconjunctival injections of a low WFA dose reduced skp2 expression in Tenon's capsule and increased p27(Kip1) expression without significant alteration to vimentin-IFs. This treatment maintains significant nanomolar WFA concentrations in anterior segment tissues that correspond to WFA's cell cycle targeting activity. A ten-fold higher WFA dose caused potent downregulation of soluble vimentin and skp2 expression, but as found in cell cultures, no further increase in p27(Kip1) expression was observed. Instead, this high WFA dose potently induced vimentin-IF disruption and downregulated α-SMA expression that mimicked WFA activity in TGF-ß-treated RbTCFs that blocked cell contractile activity at submicromolar concentrations. These findings illuminate that localized WFA injection to ocular tissues exerts pharmacological control over the skp2-p27(Kip1) pathway by targeting of soluble vimentin in a model of surgical fibrosis.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

OPERATIONAL 00Z, .... 12Z ... EXPERIMENTAL Daily Comparisons between GFS/GEFS control & ECMWF/ECMWF control 00Z T382/38km GFS, 00Z T190/70km GEFS control 12Z T1279/16km ECMWF, 12Z T639/30km ECMWF ensemble control Daily Values of 500 hPa Height AC, RMS, Talagrand & Outliers Mean of 14 GFS, 10 ECMWF and 16

Seasonal prediction of typhoon genesis frequency and track patterns in the North West Pacific area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyoun, Yoosun; Kang, Kiryong; Shin, Do-Shick

2014-05-01

This study is to investigate the performance of the typhoon seasonal predictability using a dynamical model. The check items are the monthly statistics for total number of typhoon genesis in Western North Pacific (WNP) area and possible threat to Korean peninsula among them, and the probability of each categorized track pattern. As the dynamical model the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) was used, and it uses five ensemble members including control run are generated using time-lagged methods and the resolution of T126L27 (a Gaussian grid spacing of 0.94º). The model initial conditions are obtained from the National Center for Enviromental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) and the SST from Climate Forecast System with bias correction was used for ocean surface boundary condition. The summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) season prediction is made one month prior to target season. The detection of tropical cyclone used in this system is based on six criteria. First, the isolated vortex type minimum sea level pressure should be below 1008hPa. Second, the maximum wind speed is larger than 17m s-1. Third, the magnitude of the maximum relative vorticity at 850hPa exceeds 3.5x10-5s-1. Fourth, the average temperature difference from the area mean of surrounding region at 300hPa, 500hPa, 700hPa exceeds 2.5K. Fifth, the maximum wind speed at 850hPa is larger than that at 300hPa. Sixth, this identified vortex should last more than two days. These criteria were chosen after close examination from model-observation comparison. In this study, we will focus on performance of the system typhoon frequency and track pattern in the WNP area during 2004-2013.

A comparison of daily precipitation metrics downscaled using SDSM and WRF + WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José González-Rojí, Santos; Wilby, Robert L.; Sáenz, Jon; Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Downscaling via the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) version 5.2 and two different configurations of the dynamical WRF model (with and without 3DVAR data assimilation) was evaluated for the estimation of daily precipitation over 21 sites across the Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010-2014. Six different strategies were used to calibrate the SDSM model. These options cover (1) use of NCEP/NCAR R1 Reanalysis and (2) ERA Interim data for downscaling predictor variables calibrated with data from periods (3) 1948-2009 (NCEP/NCAR R1) and (4) 1979-2009 (NCEP/NCAR R1 and ERA Interim). Additionally, for the ERA Interim case, two different grid resolutions have been used, (5) 2.5° and (6) 0.75°. On the other side, for the NCEP/NCAR R1 case, only the 2.5° resolution has been used. Configuring the SDSM model in this way allows testing the sensitivity of the results to different origins of the predictors, fit to different calibration periods and use of different reanalysis resolutions. On the other hand, ERA Interim data at the highest resolution was used as the initial/boundary conditions to run WRF simulations with a 15 km x 15 km horizontal resolution over the Iberian Peninsula, for two different configurations. The first experiment (N) was run using the same configuration typically used for numerical downscaling, with information being fed through the boundaries of the domain. The second experiment (D) was run using 3DVAR data assimilation at 00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC and 18UTC. In both cases, WRF simulations were run over the period 2009-2014, using the first year (2009) as spin-up for the soil model. Results from the WRF N and D runs and comparable SDSM set up for the period 2010-2014 were evaluated using observations from ECA and E-OBS datasets. In each case, model skill was assessed using seven daily precipitation metrics (absolute mean, wet-day intensity, 90th percentile, maximum 5-day total, maximum number of consecutive dry days, fraction of total from heavy

Improving medium-range and seasonal hydroclimate forecasts in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Di

Accurate hydro-climate forecasts are important for decision making by water managers, agricultural producers, and other stake holders. Numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models may have potential for improving hydro-climate forecasts at different scales. In this study, forecast analogs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) based on different approaches were evaluated for medium-range reference evapotranspiration (ETo), irrigation scheduling, and urban water demand forecasts in the southeast United States; the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American national multi-model ensemble (NMME) were statistically downscaled for seasonal forecasts of ETo, precipitation (P) and 2-m temperature (T2M) at the regional level. The GFS mean temperature (Tmean), relative humidity, and wind speed (Wind) reforecasts combined with the climatology of Reanalysis 2 solar radiation (Rs) produced higher skill than using the direct GFS output only. Constructed analogs showed slightly higher skill than natural analogs for deterministic forecasts. Both irrigation scheduling driven by the GEFS-based ETo forecasts and GEFS-based ETo forecast skill were generally positive up to one week throughout the year. The GEFS improved ETo forecast skill compared to the GFS. The GEFS-based analog forecasts for the input variables of an operational urban water demand model were skillful when applied in the Tampa Bay area. The modified operational models driven by GEFS analog forecasts showed higher forecast skill than the operational model based on persistence. The results for CFSv2 seasonal forecasts showed maximum temperature (Tmax) and Rs had the greatest influence on ETo. The downscaled Tmax showed the highest predictability, followed by Tmean, Tmin, Rs, and Wind. The CFSv2 model could better predict ETo in cold seasons during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events only when the forecast initial condition was in

Acoustically-Responsive Scaffolds: Control of Growth Factor Release for Tissue Regeneration Using Ultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncion, Alexander

Administration of exogenous growth factors (GFs) is a proposed method of stimulating tissue regeneration. Conventional administration routes, such as at-site or systemic injections, have yielded problems with efficacy and/or safety, thus hindering the translation of GF-based regenerative techniques. Hydrogel scaffolds are commonly used as biocompatible delivery vehicles for GFs. Yet hydrogels do not afford spatial or temporal control of GF release - two critical parameters for tissue regeneration. Controlled delivery of GFs is critical for angiogenesis, which is a crucial process in tissue engineering that provides oxygen and nutrients to cells within an implanted hydrogel scaffold. Angiogenesis requires multiple GFs that are presented with distinct spatial and temporal profiles. Thus, controlled release of GFs with spatiotemporal modulation would significantly improve tissue regeneration by recapitulating endogenous GF presentation. In order to achieve this goal, we have developed acoustically-responsive scaffolds (ARSs), which are fibrin hydrogels doped with sonosensitive perfluorocarbon (PFC) emulsions capable of encapsulating various payloads. Focused, mega-Hertz range, ultrasound (US) can modulate the release of a payload non-invasively and in an on-demand manner from ARSs via physical mechanisms termed acoustic droplet vaporization (ADV) and inertial cavitation (IC). This work presents the relationship between the ADV/IC thresholds and various US and hydrogel parameters. These physical mechanisms were used for the controlled release of fluorescent dextran in vitro and in vivo to determine the ARS and US parameters that yielded optimal payload release. The optimal ARS and US parameters were used to demonstrate the controlled release of basic fibroblast growth factor from an in vivo subcutaneous implant model - leading to enhanced angiogenesis and perfusion. Additionally, different acoustic parameters and PFCs were tested and optimized to demonstrate the

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Products People GLOBAL CLIMATE & WEATHER MODELING Global Forecast System (GFS) products - Please see

SP-100 initial startup and restart control strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halfen, Frank J.; Wong, Kwok K.; Switick, Dennis M.; Shukla, Jaikaran N.

Startup control strategies for SP-100 are described. Revised control and operating strategies are discussed which have been developed and tested using the SP-100 dynamic simulation model Aries-GFS (Generic Flight System).

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Treesearch

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

NCO Systems Integration

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: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

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Science.gov Websites

: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

NAEFS Products

Science.gov Websites

HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Products Updated: 02/27 /2014 * Products Information about the NAEFS Models CC is the model cycle runtime (i.e. 00, 06, 12, 18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Bin; Gu, Meng; Nie, Zimin

Graphite felts (GFs), as typical electrode materials for all vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), limit the cell operation to low current density because of their poor kinetic reversibility and electrochemical activity. Here, in order to address this issue we report an electrocatalyst, Nb2O5, decorating the surface of GFs to reduce the activation barrier for redox conversion. Nb2O5 nanofibers with monoclinic phases are synthesized by hydrothermal method and deposited on GFs, which is confirmed to have catalytic effects towards redox couples of V(II)/V(III) at the negative side and V(IV)/V(V) at the positive side, and thus applied in both electrodes of VRBmore » cells. Due to the low conductivity of Nb2O5, the performance of electrodes heavily depends on the nano size and uniform distribution of catalysts on GFs surfaces. The addition of the water-soluble compounds containing W element into the precursor solutions facilitates the precipitation of nanofibers on the GFs. Accordingly, an optimal amount of W-doped Nb2O5 nanofibers with weaker agglomeration and better distribution on GFs surfaces are obtained, leading to significant improvement of the electrochemical performances of VRB cells particularly under the high power operation. The corresponding energy efficiency is enhanced by 10.7 % under the operation of high charge/discharge current density (150 mA•cm-2) owing to faster charge transfer as compared with that without catalysts. These results suggest that Nb2O5 based nanofibers-decorating GFs hold great promise as high-performance electrodes for VRB applications.« less

The Modified VFT law of glass former materials under pressure: Part II: Relation with the equation of state.

PubMed

Rault, Jacques

2015-08-01

The dynamical properties of glass formers (GFs) as a function of P, V, and T are reanalyzed in relation with the equations of state (EOS) proposed recently (Eur. Phys. J. E 37, 113 (2014)). The relaxation times τ of the cooperative non-Arrhenius α process and the individual Arrhenius β process are coupled via the Kohlrausch exponent n S(T, P). In the model n S is the sigmoidal logistic function depending on T (and P, and the α relaxation time τ α of GFs above T g verifies the pressure-modified VFT law: log τ α ∼ E β /nsRT, which can be put into a form with separated variables: log τ α ∼ f(T)g(P). From the variation of n S and τ α with T and P the Vogel temperature T 0 (τ α → ∝, n S = 0) and the crossover temperature (also called the merging or splitting temperature) T B (τ α ∼ τ β, n S ∼ 1) are determined. The proposed sm-VFT equation fits with excellent accuracy the experimental data of fragile and strong GFs under pressure. The properties generally observed in organic mineral and metallic GFs are explained: a) The Vogel temperature is independent of P (as suggested by the EOS properties), the crossover is pressure-dependent. b) In crystallizable GFs the T B (P) and Clapeyron curves T m(P) coincide. c) The α and β processes have the same ratio of the activation energies and volume, E*/V* (T- and P-independent), the compensation law is observed, this ratio depends on the anharmonicity Slater-Grüneisen parameter and on the critical pressure P* deduced from the EOS. d) The properties of the Fan Structure of the Tangents (FST) to the isotherms and isobars curves log τ versus P and T and to the isochrones curves P(T). e) The scaling law log τ = f(V (Λ) ) and the relation between Γ and γ. We conclude that these properties should be studied in detail in GFs submitted to negative pressures.

Effects of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations on CWRF Regional Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Liang, X.

2011-12-01

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations incorporated in CWRF (Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model) are first evaluated by comparing simulated PBL heights with observations. Among the 10 evaluated PBL schemes, 2 (CAM, UW) are new in CWRF while the other 8 are original WRF schemes. MYJ, QNSE and UW determine the PBL heights based on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) profiles, while others (YSU, ACM, GFS, CAM, TEMF) are from bulk Richardson criteria. All TKE-based schemes (MYJ, MYNN, QNSE, UW, Boulac) substantially underestimate convective or residual PBL heights from noon toward evening, while others (ACM, CAM, YSU) well capture the observed diurnal cycle except for the GFS with systematic overestimation. These differences among the schemes are representative over most areas of the simulation domain, suggesting systematic behaviors of the parameterizations. Lower PBL heights simulated by the QNSE and MYJ are consistent with their smaller Bowen ratios and heavier rainfalls, while higher PBL tops by the GFS correspond to warmer surface temperatures. Effects of PBL parameterizations on CWRF regional climate simulation are then compared. The QNSE PBL scheme yields systematically heavier rainfall almost everywhere and throughout the year; this is identified with a much greater surface Bowen ratio (smaller sensible versus larger latent heating) and wetter soil moisture than other PBL schemes. Its predecessor MYJ scheme shares the same deficiency to a lesser degree. For temperature, the performance of the QNSE and MYJ schemes remains poor, having substantially larger rms errors in all seasons. GFS PBL scheme also produces large warm biases. Pronounced sensitivities are also found to the PBL schemes in winter and spring over most areas except the southern U.S. (Southeast, Gulf States, NAM); excluding the outliers (QNSE, MYJ, GFS) that cause extreme biases of -6 to +3°C, the differences among the schemes are still visible (±2°C), where the

Patient-Derived Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells From Gingival Fibroblasts Composited With Defined Nanohydroxyapatite/Chitosan/Gelatin Porous Scaffolds as Potential Bone Graft Substitutes.

PubMed

Ji, Jun; Tong, Xin; Huang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Junfeng; Qin, Haiyan; Hu, Qingang

2016-01-01

Human embryonic stem cells and adult stem cells have always been the cell source for bone tissue engineering. However, their limitations are obvious, including ethical concerns and/or a short lifespan. The use of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) could avoid these problems. Nanohydroxyapatite (nHA) is an important component of natural bone and bone tissue engineering scaffolds. However, its regulation on osteogenic differentiation with hiPSCs from human gingival fibroblasts (hGFs) is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the osteogenic differentiation of hiPSCs from patient-derived hGFs regulated by nHA/chitosan/gelatin (HCG) scaffolds with different nHA ratios, such as HCG-111 (1 wt/vol% nHA) and HCG-311 (3 wt/vol% nHA). First, hGFs were reprogrammed into hiPSCs, which have enhanced osteogenic differentiation capability. Second, HCG-111 and HCG-311 scaffolds were successfully synthesized. Finally, hiPSC/HCG complexes were cultured in vitro or subcutaneously transplanted into immunocompromised mice in vivo. The osteogenic differentiation effects of two types of HCG scaffolds on hiPSCs were assessed for up to 12 weeks. The results showed that HCG-311 increased osteogenic-related gene expression of hiPSCs in vitro proved by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, and hiPSC/HCG-311 complexes formed much bone-like tissue in vivo, indicated by cone-beam computed tomography imaging, H&E staining, Masson staining, and RUNX-2, OCN immunohistochemistry staining. In conclusion, our study has shown that osteogenic differentiation of hiPSCs from hGFs was improved by HCG-311. The mechanism might be that the nHA addition stimulates osteogenic marker expression of hiPSCs from hGFs. Our work has provided an innovative autologous cell-based bone tissue engineering approach with soft tissues such as clinically abundant gingiva. The present study focused on patient-personalized bone tissue engineering. Human induced pluripotent stem cells

Patient-Derived Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells From Gingival Fibroblasts Composited With Defined Nanohydroxyapatite/Chitosan/Gelatin Porous Scaffolds as Potential Bone Graft Substitutes

PubMed Central

Ji, Jun; Tong, Xin; Huang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Junfeng

2016-01-01

Human embryonic stem cells and adult stem cells have always been the cell source for bone tissue engineering. However, their limitations are obvious, including ethical concerns and/or a short lifespan. The use of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) could avoid these problems. Nanohydroxyapatite (nHA) is an important component of natural bone and bone tissue engineering scaffolds. However, its regulation on osteogenic differentiation with hiPSCs from human gingival fibroblasts (hGFs) is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the osteogenic differentiation of hiPSCs from patient-derived hGFs regulated by nHA/chitosan/gelatin (HCG) scaffolds with different nHA ratios, such as HCG-111 (1 wt/vol% nHA) and HCG-311 (3 wt/vol% nHA). First, hGFs were reprogrammed into hiPSCs, which have enhanced osteogenic differentiation capability. Second, HCG-111 and HCG-311 scaffolds were successfully synthesized. Finally, hiPSC/HCG complexes were cultured in vitro or subcutaneously transplanted into immunocompromised mice in vivo. The osteogenic differentiation effects of two types of HCG scaffolds on hiPSCs were assessed for up to 12 weeks. The results showed that HCG-311 increased osteogenic-related gene expression of hiPSCs in vitro proved by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, and hiPSC/HCG-311 complexes formed much bone-like tissue in vivo, indicated by cone-beam computed tomography imaging, H&E staining, Masson staining, and RUNX-2, OCN immunohistochemistry staining. In conclusion, our study has shown that osteogenic differentiation of hiPSCs from hGFs was improved by HCG-311. The mechanism might be that the nHA addition stimulates osteogenic marker expression of hiPSCs from hGFs. Our work has provided an innovative autologous cell-based bone tissue engineering approach with soft tissues such as clinically abundant gingiva. Significance The present study focused on patient-personalized bone tissue engineering. Human induced

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2017-10-01

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, Siegfried; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Evaluation of Causes of Large 96-H and 120-H Track Errors in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

Interpolated GFS (A) forecast track for 11W ( Mawar ) for the 0600 UTC 22 August 2005 E-DCI-m case study. The solid sections of the forecast tracks...fields for 11W ( Mawar ) predicted by GFS for taus (a) 54 and (c) 66 for 0600 UTC 22 August 2005 and the corresponding verifying 00-h NOGAPS analyses...pressure (mb) fields for 11W ( Mawar ) predicted by GFS for taus (a) 90 and (c) 114 for 0600 UTC 22 August 2005 and the corresponding verifying 00-h

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

/ARW1 : IC/BC from 6-h old GFS Alaska ARW2 : IC from current NAM, BC from 6-h old NAM CONUS NMMB/ARW1 : IC from current RAP, BC from 6-h old GFS CONUS ARW2 ; IC from current NAM, BC from 6-h old NAM Hawaii NMMB/ARW1: IC/BC from 6-h old GFS Hawaii ARW2 : IC from current NAM, BC from 6-h old NAM Puerto Rico

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. Themore » evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Fong-Chiau; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Guillory, Anthony R.

1998-01-01

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Betty Petersen Memorial Library - NCWCP Publications - NWS

Science.gov Websites

Resources NCEP Office Notes IT Resources Request an item* University of Maryland Research Affiliate Contact for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications & Research (STAR . Evaluating Numerical Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (.PDF file) 368 1990 Gerald V. OPC Unified

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR ranalysis. Part I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yanai, Michio; Tomita, Tomohiko

1997-11-01

In this paper, an analysis of the heat and moisture budgets of the troposphere is revised and extended. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1994. The seasonal and interannual variability of heat sources and sinks and the nature of heating over various geographical locations is examined in detail. Results presented include global distributions of the 15-year mean of the vertically integrated heat source and moisture sink and the outgoing longwave radiation flux for northern winter and northern summer. A time series of monthlymore » mean anomalies of the apparent heat source, the apparent moisture sink, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and divergence at wind fields of 850 hPa and 200 hPa are presented for the equatorial Indian Ocean, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, western Tibet, and eastern Tibet. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, short period oscillation is superimposed upon longer periods. Over the eastern Pacific, a longer periodicity is dominant and the variability of the heat source is very well correlated with similar variations of outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and horizontal divergence. The high correlation with these variables suggests that anomalous heating is accompanied by intensified convective activity favored by warmer sea surface temperature. 13 refs., 5 figs.« less

Wavelet-Domain Nonlinear Energy and Enstrophy Transfers between Atmospheric Blocks and Local Eddies, Averaged over the NCEP Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, A.

2001-05-01

There is reason to believe that weather is more predictable during atmospheric blocking (AB) events than during ``normal'' (N) meteorological states (Bengtsson 1981). Saltzman (1959) proposed that such quasi-permanent disturbances in general may be maintained by an up-scale nonlinear eddy kinetic energy (KE) cascade. This idea was later applied to or verified for AB observations or models by Green (1970,1977), Hansen & Chen (1982), Shutts (1983,1986), Haines & Marshall (1987), Butchart et al. (1989), Riyu & Ronghui (1996), Nakamura et al. (1997) and others. We present a study of the nonlinear-energetics contrast between Atlantic (A) and Pacific (P) AB and N, generalizing the Fourier-based approach originated by Saltzman (1957) and Hansen & Sutera (1984). The Wavelet Energetics (WE) recently introduced by the author is applied to the 53-y NCEP Reanalyis, extending his study of AB presented in AGU, 1995 and (Fournier 1998,1999,2000). Temporal mean and variance maps suggest that AB is associated with eddy activity concentrated on smaller scales on either side of the AB ridge. Correlating WE, AB relative to nonblocking, illumenates the AB similarities and differences between P and A, as the former's WE pattern is shifted over the latter's. The theoretical conservation of Wavelet Flux is numerically verified to well below observational tolerance. Statistical significance is estimated. Conclusions include the following. Wavelet KE and enstrophy stocks (localized at scale ≈21-jπ r⊕ cosǎrphi, zonal-wavenumber band ≈ ]2j-1,2j] and longitude ≈21-jkπ ) Kjk and Ejk increase upstream, decrease downstream of either block. Mean-flow transfer MKjk increases downstream, at j=2 (and j=4 for A, 5 for P). Eddy transfer TKjk has more complex changes, A!=qP except that TK1k decreases downstream. Eddy flux FKjk shows downscale (upscale) cascade downstream (upstream) of P (A blocks tend to migrate in λ more than do P, that would weaken this signal for A). MEjk and TEjk have

Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-arid Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmers, T. M.; Gupta, H.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Gochis, D.; Yates, D. N.; Dugger, A. L.; Goodrich, D. C.

2017-12-01

The NOAA National Water Center (NWC) implemented an operational National Water Model (NWM) in August 2016 to simulate and forecast streamflow and soil moisture throughout the Contiguous US (CONUS). The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model architecture, with a 1-km resolution Noah-MP LSM grid and a 250m routing grid. The operational NWM does not currently resolve infiltration of water from the beds of ephemeral channels, which is an important component of the water balance in semi-arid environments common in many portions of the western US. This work demonstrates the benefit of a conceptual channel infiltration function in the WRF-Hydro model architecture following calibration. The updated model structure and parameters for the NWM architecture, when implemented operationally, will permit its use in flow simulation and forecasting in the southwest US, particularly for flash floods in basins with smaller drainage areas. Our channel infiltration function is based on that of the KINEROS2 semi-distributed hydrologic model, which has been tested throughout the southwest CONUS for flash flood forecasts. Model calibration utilizes the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm, and the model is calibrated using NLDAS-2 atmospheric forcing and NCEP Stage-IV precipitation. Our results show that adding channel infiltration to WRF-Hydro can produce a physically consistent hydrologic response with a high-resolution gauge based precipitation forcing dataset in the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. NWM WRF-Hydro is also tested for the Babocomari River, Beaver Creek, and Sycamore Creek catchments in southern and central Arizona. In these basins, model skill is degraded due to uncertainties in the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation forcing dataset.

α5β1-Integrin inhibitor (CLT-28643) effective in rabbit trabeculectomy model.

PubMed

Schultheiss, Maximilian; Schnichels, Sven; Konrad, Eva-Maria; Bartz-Schmidt, Karl U; Zahn, Grit; Caldirola, Patrizia; Fsadni, Mario G; Caram-Lelham, Ninus; Spitzer, Martin S

2017-02-01

Glaucoma filtration surgery (GFS) fails due to fibrosis. The α5β1-integrin plays a pivotal role in fibrosis, angiogenesis and inflammation. This is the first experiment evaluating the prevention of fibrosis after GFS by a specific small molecule α5β1-integrin inhibitor (CLT-28643). Twenty-four rabbits received trabeculectomy on their right eyes. The rabbits were randomized into three groups of eight eyes each. CLT-28643 was given as a single subconjunctival injection intraoperatively to two of the right eye groups followed by postoperative vehicle eye drops (CLT+ group) or CLT-28643 eye drops 4 times daily (CLT++ group). A third group received mitomycin-C (MMC) intraoperatively (sponge application, 0.04%, 2 min) followed by vehicle eye drops postoperatively. The control-surgery group consisted of 12 left eyes having trabeculectomy with no adjunctive therapy. The remaining 12 left eyes formed the untreated group. Clinical assessment included intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement, slit-lamp examination (including bleb survival and morphology) and bleb photography. The rabbits were killed after four weeks for histology. Both CLT-28643-treated groups showed significantly prolonged bleb survival, and better bleb score compared to the control-surgery group. At end of the study, most functioning blebs were found in the MMC group (MMC group 75%; CLT+ group 12.5%, CLT++ group 25%; CLT+ group 12.5%, control-surgery group 0%). CLT-28643 was non-toxic and well tolerated. This rabbit GFS study indicates that inhibition of α5β1-integrin by the novel α5β1-integrin antagonist CLT-28643 significantly improved the outcome. The effect of a single intro-operative application of CLT-28643 seems to be inferior to 0.04% MMC. © 2016 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding the Impact of Ground Water Treatment and Evapotranspiration Parameterizations in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) on Warm Season Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ek, M. B.; Yang, R.

2016-12-01

Skillful short-term weather forecasts, which rely heavily on quality atmospheric initial conditions, have a fundamental limit of about two weeks owing to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Useful forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales, on the other hand, require well-simulated large-scale atmospheric response to slowly varying lower boundary forcings from both the ocean and land surface. The critical importance of ocean has been recognized, where the ocean indices have been used in a variety of climate applications. In contrast, the impact of land surface anomalies, especially soil moisture and associated evaporation, has been proven notably difficult to demonstrate. The Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) is the land component of NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) used for seasonal predictions. The Noah LSM originates from the Oregon State University (OSU) LSM. The evaporation control in the Noah LSM is based on the Penman-Monteith equation, which takes into account the solar radiation, relative humidity, air temperature, and soil moisture effects. The Noah LSM is configured with four soil layers with a fixed depth of 2 meters and free drainage at the bottom soil layer. This treatment assumes that the soil water table depth is well within the specified range, and also potentially misrepresents the soil moisture memory effects at seasonal time scales. To overcome the limitation, an unconfined aquifer is attached to the bottom of the soil to allow the water table to move freely up and down. In addition, in conjunction with the water table, an alternative Ball-Berry photosynthesis-based evaporation parameterization is examined to evaluate the impact from using a different evaporation control methodology. Focusing on the 2011 and 2012 intense summer droughts in the central US, seasonal ensemble forecast experiments with early May initial conditions are carried out for the two years using an enhanced version of CFSv2, where the atmospheric component of the CFSv2 is

SST-Forced Seasonal Simulation and Prediction Skill for Versions of the NCEP/MRF Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livezey, Robert E.; Masutani, Michiko; Jil, Ming

1996-03-01

The feasibility of using a two-tier approach to provide guidance to operational long-lead seasonal prediction is explored. The approach includes first a forecast of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using a coupled general circulation model, followed by an atmospheric forecast using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). For this exploration, ensembles of decade-long integrations of the AGCM driven by observed SSTs and ensembles of integrations of select cases driven by forecast SSTs have been conducted. The ability of the model in these sets of runs to reproduce observed atmospheric conditions has been evaluated with a multiparameter performance analysis.Results have identified performance and skill levels in the specified SST runs, for winters and springs over the Pacific/North America region, that are sufficient to impact operational seasonal predictions in years with major El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. Further, these levels were substantially reproduced in the forecast SST runs for 1-month leads and in many instances for up to one-season leads. In fact, overall the 0- and 1-month-lead forecasts of seasonal temperature over the United States for three falls and winters with major ENSO episodes were substantially better than corresponding official forecasts. Thus, there is considerable reason to develop a dynamical component for the official seasonal forecast process.

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Metabolic Syndrome in Psoriasis among Urban South Indians: A Case Control Study Using SAM-NCEP Criteria.

PubMed

Girisha, Banavasi S; Thomas, Neetha

2017-02-01

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease of the skin associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity. Metabolic syndrome is a significant forecaster of cardiovascular events. To assess the association of metabolic syndrome and its components in patients with psoriasis and to compare it with the age and sex matched control group. We conducted a hospital based case-control study on 156 adult patients with chronic plaque psoriasis and 156 patients with skin diseases other than psoriasis. Height, weight, BMI, blood pressure and waist circumference were documented in all the subjects. Fasting levels of serum glucose, serum triglycerides and serum HDL were estimated by automated clinical chemistry analyzer. The South Asian modified NCEP ATP criterion was used for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome. Statistical analysis of the data was done using statistical processing software (SPSS-17). Metabolic syndrome was significantly more common in psoriatic patients than in controls (28.8% vs 16.7%, p=0.01). Hypertriglyceridemia was significantly more prevalent in cases than in controls (34% vs 20.5%, p=0.008). The reduced HDL levels also showed a significantly high occurrence among cases (27.6% vs 13.5%, p=0.002). Moderate increase of blood pressure was seen among cases as compared to controls but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.1). Impaired blood glucose and abdominal obesity were similar in both groups. Smoking and alcoholism did not influence the association of metabolic syndrome with psoriasis. There was no correlation of metabolic syndrome with severity and duration of psoriasis. Our findings suggest that metabolic syndrome as well as dyslipidemia is common in psoriasis patients among urban South Indians. This study highlights the need for screening at diagnosis and regular follow up of the metabolic aspects of the disease along with the skin lesions.

NCEP Global Aerosols Forecast. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

Documentations Select Domain Global Regional Year: 2016 2017 2018 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 31 Select Field: Total AOD Total AOD Dust AOD Sea salt AOD Black carbon AOD POM AOD Sulfate AOD Get

Global field synchronization in gamma range of the sleep EEG tracks sleep depth: Artifact introduced by a rectangular analysis window.

PubMed

Rusterholz, Thomas; Achermann, Peter; Dürr, Roland; Koenig, Thomas; Tarokh, Leila

2017-06-01

Investigating functional connectivity between brain networks has become an area of interest in neuroscience. Several methods for investigating connectivity have recently been developed, however, these techniques need to be applied with care. We demonstrate that global field synchronization (GFS), a global measure of phase alignment in the EEG as a function of frequency, must be applied considering signal processing principles in order to yield valid results. Multichannel EEG (27 derivations) was analyzed for GFS based on the complex spectrum derived by the fast Fourier transform (FFT). We examined the effect of window functions on GFS, in particular of non-rectangular windows. Applying a rectangular window when calculating the FFT revealed high GFS values for high frequencies (>15Hz) that were highly correlated (r=0.9) with spectral power in the lower frequency range (0.75-4.5Hz) and tracked the depth of sleep. This turned out to be spurious synchronization. With a non-rectangular window (Tukey or Hanning window) these high frequency synchronization vanished. Both, GFS and power density spectra significantly differed for rectangular and non-rectangular windows. Previous papers using GFS typically did not specify the applied window and may have used a rectangular window function. However, the demonstrated impact of the window function raises the question of the validity of some previous findings at higher frequencies. We demonstrated that it is crucial to apply an appropriate window function for determining synchronization measures based on a spectral approach to avoid spurious synchronization in the beta/gamma range. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chitinolytic and chitosanolytic activities from crude cellulase extract produced by A. niger grown on apple pomace through Koji fermentation.

PubMed

Dhillon, Gurpreet Singh; Brar, Satinder Kaur; Kaur, Surinder; Valero, Jose R; Verma, Mausam

2011-12-01

Enzyme extracts of cellulase [filter paper cellulase (FPase) and carboxymethyl cellulase (CMCase)], chitinase, and chitosanase produced by Aspergillus niger NRRL-567 were evaluated. The interactive effects of initial moisture and different inducers for FP cellulase and CMCase production were optimized using response surface methodology. Higher enzyme activities [FPase 79.24+/- 4.22 IU/gram fermented substrate (gfs) and CMCase 124.04+/-7.78 IU/gfs] were achieved after 48 h fermentation in solid-state medium containing apple pomace supplemented with rice husk [1% (w/w)] under optimized conditions [pH 4.5, moisture 55% (v/w), and inducers veratryl alcohol (2 mM/kg), copper sulfate (1.5 mM/kg), and lactose 2% (w/w)] (p<0.05). Koji fermentation in trays was carried out and higher enzyme activities (FPase 96.67+/-4.18 IU/gfs and CMCase 146.50+/-11.92 IU/gfs) were achieved. The nonspecific chitinase and chitosanase activities of cellulase enzyme extract were analyzed using chitin and chitosan substrates with different physicochemical characteristics, such as degree of deacetylation, molecular weight, and viscosity. Higher chitinase and chitosanase activities of 70.28+/-3.34 IU/gfs and 60.18+/-3.82 to 64.20+/-4.12 IU/gfs, respectively, were achieved. Moreover, the enzyme was stable and retained 92-94% activity even after one month. Cellulase enzyme extract obtained from A. niger with chitinolytic and chitosanolytic activities could be potentially used for making low-molecular-weight chitin and chitosan oligomers, having promising applications in biomedicine, pharmaceuticals, food, and agricultural industries, and in biocontrol formulations.

Potential Vorticity Analysis of Low Level Thunderstorm Dynamics in an Idealized Supercell Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Severe Weather, Supercell, Weather Research and Forecasting Model , Advanced WRF 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT...27 A. ADVANCED RESEARCH WRF MODEL .................................................27 1. Data, Model Setup, and Methodology...03/11/2006 GFS model run. Top row: 11/12Z initialization. Middle row: 12 hour forecast valid at 12/00Z. Bottom row: 24 hour forecast valid at

Hurricane Products

Science.gov Websites

HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule Hurricane Products Updated: 6/09/2015 Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory Hurricane Model (GHM) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) * Products Information

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.

Application of the WRF-Chem model for the simulation of air quality over Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushta, Jonilda; Proestos, Yiannis; Georgiou, George; Christoudias, Theodoros; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

The fully coupled WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) model is used to simulate air quality over Cyprus. Cyprus is an island country with complex topography, located in the eastern corner of East Mediterranean region, affected year-long by local, regional and long range transported pollution. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model performance has been performed over the area of interest with three domains of respective grid spacing of 40, 8 and 2 km. Different configurations have been deployed regarding horizontal resolution, simulation timestep, boundary conditions, NOx emissions and speciation method of emitted NMVOCs (Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds). The WRF-Chem model simulated hourly concentrations of air pollutants for a month-long period (July 2014) during which measurements are available over 13 stations (4 of which background stations, 1 industrial and 8 urban/traffic stations). The model was initialized with meteorological initial and boundary conditions (ICBC) using NCAR-NCEP's F Global Forecast System output (GFS) at a 1o x1o spatial resolution. The ICBC for the chemical species are derived from the MOZART global model results (2.5o x 2.5o). Both ICBCs datasets are updated every 6 hours. The emission inventory used in the study is the EDGAR-HTAP v2 dataset with a horizontal grid resolution of 0.1o × 0.1o, while an additional dataset with speciated NMVOCs (instead of summed volatile species) is also tested. The diurnal cycle of the atmospheric concentrations of ozone averaged over the island, exhibits a maximum of 114 μg/m3 when the boundary conditions are derived from MOZART and 94 μg/m3 when the boundary conditions are not included (local background and production), suggesting a constant inflow of ozone from long range transport of about 20 μg/m3. The contribution of pollution from regional sources is more pronounced at the western border due to the characteristic summer time north-northeasterly etesian flow

Evaluation and Improvement of Polar WRF simulations using the observed atmospheric profiles in the Arctic seasonal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Schweiger, A. J. B.

2016-12-01

We use the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate atmospheric conditions during the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey (SIZRS) over the Beaufort Sea in the summer since 2013. With the 119 SIZRS dropsondes in the18 cross sections along the 150W and 140W longitude lines, we evaluate the performance of WRF simulations and two forcing data sets, the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis, and explore the improvement of the Polar WRF performance when the dropsonde data are assimilated using observation nudging. Polar WRF, ERA-Interim, and GFS can reproduce the general features of the observed mean atmospheric profiles, such as low-level temperature inversion, low-level jet (LLJ) and specific humidity inversion. The Polar WRF significantly improves the mean LLJ, with a lower and stronger jet and a larger turning angle than the forcing, which is likely related to the lower values of the boundary layer diffusion in WRF than in the global models such as ECMWF and GFS. The Polar WRF simulated relative humidity closely resembles the forcing datasets while having large biases compared to observations. This suggests that the performance of Polar WRF and its forecasts in this region are limited by the quality of the forcing dataset and that the assimilation of more and better-calibrated observations, such as humidity data, is critical for their improvement. We investigate the potential of assimilating the SIZRS dropsonde dataset in improving the weather forecast over the Beaufort Sea. A simple local nudging approach is adopted. Along SIZRS flight cross sections, a set of Polar WRF simulations are performed with varying number of variables and dropsonde profiles assimilated. Different model physics are tested to examine the sensitivity of different aspects of model physics, such as boundary layer schemes, cloud microphysics, and radiation parameterization, to data assimilation. The comparison of the Polar WRF runs with

East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke; Yang, Hongqing

2017-12-01

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the major climate system in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. In this study, we developed two schemes to improve the forecasting skill of the interannual variability of the EAWM index (EAWMI) using the interannual increment prediction method, also known as the DY method. First, we found that version 2 of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) showed higher skill in predicting the EAWMI in DY form than not. So, based on the advantage of the DY method, Scheme-I was obtained by adding the EAWMI DY predicted by CFSv2 to the observed EAWMI in the previous year. This scheme showed higher forecasting skill than CFSv2. Specifically, during 1983-2016, the temporal correlation coefficient between the Scheme-I-predicted and observed EAWMI was 0.47, exceeding the 99% significance level, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 12%. The autumn Arctic sea ice and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are two important external forcing factors for the interannual variability of the EAWM. Therefore, a second (hybrid) prediction scheme, Scheme-II, was also developed. This scheme not only involved the EAWMI DY of CFSv2, but also the sea-ice concentration (SIC) observed the previous autumn in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and the temporal coefficients of the third mode of the North Pacific SST in DY form. We found that a negative SIC anomaly in the preceding autumn over the Laptev and the East Siberian seas could lead to a significant enhancement of the Aleutian low and East Asian westerly jet in the following winter. However, the intensity of the winter Siberian high was mainly affected by the third mode of the North Pacific autumn SST. Scheme-I and Scheme-II also showed higher predictive ability for the EAWMI in negative anomaly years compared to CFSv2. More importantly, the improvement in the prediction skill of the EAWMI by the new schemes, especially for Scheme-II, could enhance the forecasting skill of

Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System for Monthly and Seasonal Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.

2014-12-01

Since August 2011, the real time seasonal forecasts of the U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f in the first year of the real time NMME forecast. Two Canadian coupled models CMC/CanCM3 and CM4 joined in and CFSv1 and IRI's models dropped out in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects monthly means of three variables, precipitation, temperature at 2m and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean in equal weight for each model mean and probability forecast with equal weight for each member of each model. This provides the NMME forecast locked in schedule for the CPC operational seasonal and monthly outlook. The basic verification metrics of seasonal and monthly prediction of NMME are calculated as an evaluation of skill, including both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the 3-year real time (August, 2011- July 2014) period and the 30-year retrospective forecast (1982-2011) of the individual models as well as the NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. We also want to establish whether the real time and hindcast periods (used for bias correction in real time) are consistent. The experimental phase I of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Agreement Between the JCDCG, Revised NCEP-ATPIII, and IDF Definitions of Metabolic Syndrome in a Northwestern Chinese Population.

PubMed

Sun, Fei; Gao, Bin; Wang, Li; Xing, Ying; Ming, Jie; Zhou, Jie; Fu, Jianfang; Li, Xiaomiao; Xu, Shaoyong; Liu, Guocai; Ji, Qiuhe

2018-05-28

The Joint Committee for Developing Chinese Guidelines (JCDCG) introduced the Chinese definition for metabolic syndrome (MS), which has been verified in southern Chinese people but not in northwestern Chinese people. We evaluated the MS definition proposed by the JCDCG in a northwestern Chinese population, in comparison with those of the revised National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF). This population-based cross-sectional study was a part of the China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study conducted in Shaanxi province. We included 3243 participants aged ≥ 20 years. The age-adjusted MS prevalence was assessed per the 2007 Chinese population structure. The agreement between different definitions was assessed by the kappa statistic. The standardized prevalence of JCDCG-MS, revised ATPIII-MS, and IDF-MS was 22.4%, 29.4%, and 24.9%, respectively. Among women, the agreement of the JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and the IDF definition was not good (κ = 0.599 and 0.601, respectively); 54.6% of the revised ATPIII-MS and 56% of the IDF-MS were defined as MS according to the JCDCG definition. Among men, the agreement of JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and IDF definitions was very good (κ = 0.863) and substantial (κ = 0.741), respectively. The agreement of the JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and IDF definitions was insufficient in women. Compared with the other two definitions, the JCDCG definition underestimates MS prevalence in northwestern women.

Platelet-rich plasma derived growth factors contribute to stem cell differentiation in musculoskeletal regeneration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yun; Han, Qixin; Chen, Wei; Song, Jialin; Zhao, Xiaotian; Ouyang, Yuanming; Yuan, Weien; Fan, Cunyi

2017-10-01

Stem cell treatment and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) therapy are two significant issues in regenerative medicine. Stem cells such as bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells, adipose-derived stem cells and periodontal ligament stem cells can be successfully applied in the field of tissue regeneration. PRP, a natural product isolated from whole blood, can secrete multiple growth factors (GFs) for regulating physiological activities. These GFs can stimulate proliferation and differentiation of different stem cells in injury models. Therefore, combination of both agents receives wide expectations in regenerative medicine, especially in bone, cartilage and tendon repair. In this review, we thoroughly discussed the interaction and underlying mechanisms of platelet-rich plasma derived growth factors with stem cells, and assessed their functions in cell differentiation for musculoskeletal regeneration.

Biomaterial delivery of morphogens to mimic the natural healing cascade in bone

PubMed Central

Mehta, Manav; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina; Duda, Georg N; Mooney, David J

2012-01-01

Complications in treatment of large bone defects using bone grafting still remain. Our understanding of the endogenous bone regeneration cascade has inspired the exploration of a wide variety of growth factors (GFs) in an effort to mimic the natural signaling that controls bone healing. Biomaterial-based delivery of single exogenous GFs has shown therapeutic efficacy, and this likely relates to its ability to recruit and promote replication of cells involved in tissue development and the healing process. However, as the natural bone healing cascade involves the action of multiple factors, each acting in a specific spatiotemporal pattern, strategies aiming to mimic the critical aspects of this process will likely benefit from the usage of multiple therapeutic agents. This article reviews the current status of approaches to deliver single GFs, as well as ongoing efforts to develop sophisticated delivery platforms to deliver multiple lineage-directing morphogens (multiple GFs) during bone healing. PMID:22626978

Superconductivity in Cage Compounds LaTr2Al20 with Tr = Ti, V, Nb, and Ta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Akira; Higashinaka, Ryuji; Matsuda, Tatsuma D.; Aoki, Yuji

2018-03-01

Electrical resistivity, magnetic susceptibility, and specific heat measurements on single crystals of LaTr2Al20 (Tr = Ti, V, Nb, and Ta) revealed that these four compounds exhibit weak-coupling superconductivity with transition temperatures Tc = 0.46, 0.15, 1.05, and 1.03 K, respectively. LaTi2Al20 is most probably a type-I superconductor, which is quite rare among intermetallic compounds. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction suggests "rattling" anharmonic large-amplitude oscillations of Al ions (16c site) on the Al16 cage, while no such feature is suggested for the cage-center La ion. Using a parameter dGFS quantifying the "guest free space" of the cage-center ion, we demonstrate that nonmagnetic RTr2Al20 superconductors are classified into two groups, i.e., (A) dGFS ≠ 0 and Tc correlates with dGFS, and (B) dGFS ≃ 0 and Tc seems to be governed by other factors.

Three-dimensional graphene foam as a biocompatible and conductive scaffold for neural stem cells

PubMed Central

Li, Ning; Zhang, Qi; Gao, Song; Song, Qin; Huang, Rong; Wang, Long; Liu, Liwei; Dai, Jianwu; Tang, Mingliang; Cheng, Guosheng

2013-01-01

Neural stem cell (NSC) based therapy provides a promising approach for neural regeneration. For the success of NSC clinical application, a scaffold is required to provide three-dimensional (3D) cell growth microenvironments and appropriate synergistic cell guidance cues. Here, we report the first utilization of graphene foam, a 3D porous structure, as a novel scaffold for NSCs in vitro. It was found that three-dimensional graphene foams (3D-GFs) can not only support NSC growth, but also keep cell at an active proliferation state with upregulation of Ki67 expression than that of two-dimensional graphene films. Meanwhile, phenotypic analysis indicated that 3D-GFs can enhance the NSC differentiation towards astrocytes and especially neurons. Furthermore, a good electrical coupling of 3D-GFs with differentiated NSCs for efficient electrical stimulation was observed. Our findings implicate 3D-GFs could offer a powerful platform for NSC research, neural tissue engineering and neural prostheses. PMID:23549373

Biomaterial delivery of morphogens to mimic the natural healing cascade in bone.

PubMed

Mehta, Manav; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina; Duda, Georg N; Mooney, David J

2012-09-01

Complications in treatment of large bone defects using bone grafting still remain. Our understanding of the endogenous bone regeneration cascade has inspired the exploration of a wide variety of growth factors (GFs) in an effort to mimic the natural signaling that controls bone healing. Biomaterial-based delivery of single exogenous GFs has shown therapeutic efficacy, and this likely relates to its ability to recruit and promote replication of cells involved in tissue development and the healing process. However, as the natural bone healing cascade involves the action of multiple factors, each acting in a specific spatiotemporal pattern, strategies aiming to mimic the critical aspects of this process will likely benefit from the usage of multiple therapeutic agents. This article reviews the current status of approaches to deliver single GFs, as well as ongoing efforts to develop sophisticated delivery platforms to deliver multiple lineage-directing morphogens (multiple GFs) during bone healing. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Science.gov Websites

Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Atlantic RTOFS Discontinued A hybrid coordinate, nominally 1/12Â initial time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Fukushima Tracers NCEP/NWS deployed three-dimensional

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

A study on large-scale nudging effects in regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yhang, Yoo-Bin; Hong, Song-You

2011-05-01

The large-scale nudging effects on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The NCEP/DOE reanalysis data is used to provide large-scale forcings for RSM simulations, configured with an approximately 50-km grid over East Asia, centered on the Korean peninsula. The RSM with a variant of spectral nudging, that is, the scale selective bias correction (SSBC), is forced by perfect boundary conditions during the summers (June-July-August) from 1979 to 2004. The two summers of 2000 and 2004 are investigated to demonstrate the impact of SSBC on precipitation in detail. It is found that the effect of SSBC on the simulated seasonal precipitation is in general neutral without a discernible advantage. Although errors in large-scale circulation for both 2000 and 2004 are reduced by using the SSBC method, the impact on simulated precipitation is found to be negative in 2000 and positive in 2004 summers. One possible reason for a different effect is that precipitation in the summer of 2004 is characterized by a strong baroclinicity, while precipitation in 2000 is caused by thermodynamic instability. The reduction of convective rainfall over the oceans by the application of the SSBC method seems to play an important role in modeled atmosphere.

Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

American GFS models, and informally applied on the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) model. The current CI equation is as follows...Reen B, Penc R. Investigating surface bias errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) model using a Geographic Information System (GIS). J...Forecast model ( WRF -ARW) with extensions that might include finer terrain resolutions and more detailed representations of the underlying atmospheric

GPS PPP-derived precipitable water vapor retrieval based on Tm/Ps from multiple sources of meteorological data sets in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongxing; Yuan, Yunbin; Li, Wei; Ou, Jikun; Li, Ying; Zhang, Baocheng

2017-04-01

Weighted mean temperature (Tm) and pressure (Ps) are two parameters of great relevance to precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrieval from global positioning system (GPS) data. However, information about the Tm and Ps cannot be available for those GPS stations that are not colocated with meteorological sensors. To investigate the optimal GPS-PWV retrieval method for China, two enhanced Tm models, GM-Tm (temperature dependent) and GH-Tm (temperature independent), are developed. Additionally, the potentials of the Ps data from the two reanalysis data sets, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis II (NCEP II) and ERA-Interim, and from the empirical model GPT2w for GPS-PWV retrieval are investigated over China. To evaluate the performances of multisources Tm and Ps data for GPS-PWV retrieval, GPS data (2011-2013) collected from 22 stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) were processed by using the precise point positioning (PPP) technique, estimating the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) so as to be subsequently converted to GPS-PWV. The retrieved GPS-PWVs are compared with their counterparts derived from NCEP II and radiosonde data over China. The results show that (1) the GM-Tm model consistently shows the highest accuracy (with root mean square error of 2.3 K), and the GH-Tm model should be selected when temperature observations are not available, and that (2) the performances of Ps from NCEP II and ERA-Interim differ marginally for GPS-PWV retrieval, and significant seasonal variations are found in the agreement between the GPS-PWVs and the PWVs derived from NCEP II and radiosonde data over China.

Therapeutic Potential of Gingival Fibroblasts for Cutaneous Radiation Syndrome: Comparison to Bone Marrow-Mesenchymal Stem Cell Grafts

PubMed Central

Tissedre, Frederique; Busson, Elodie; Holler, Valerie; Leclerc, Thomas; Strup-Perrot, Carine; Couty, Ludovic; L'homme, Bruno; Benderitter, Marc; Lafont, Antoine; Lataillade, Jean Jacques; Coulomb, Bernard

2015-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy has recently been investigated as a potential treatment for cutaneous radiation burns. We tested the hypothesis that injection of local gingival fibroblasts (GFs) would promote healing of radiation burn lesions and compared results with those for MSC transplantation. Human clinical- grade GFs or bone marrow-derived MSCs were intradermally injected into mice 21 days after local leg irradiation. Immunostaining and real-time PCR analysis were used to assess the effects of each treatment on extracellular matrix remodeling and inflammation in skin on days 28 and 50 postirradiation. GFs induced the early development of thick, fully regenerated epidermis, skin appendages, and hair follicles, earlier than MSCs did. The acceleration of wound healing by GFs involved rearrangement of the deposited collagen, modification of the Col/MMP/TIMP balance, and modulation of the expression and localization of tenascin-C and of the expression of growth factors (VEGF, EGF, and FGF7). As MSC treatment did, GF injection decreased the irradiation-induced inflammatory response and switched the differentiation of macrophages toward an M2-like phenotype, characterized by CD163+ macrophage infiltration and strong expression of arginase-1. These findings indicate that GFs are an attractive target for regenerative medicine, for easier to collect, can grow in culture, and promote cutaneous wound healing in irradiation burn lesions. PMID:25584741

Comparison of Surface Mountain Climate With Equivalent Free Air Parameters Extracted From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Hardy, D.; Duane, W.; Losleben, M.

2007-12-01

It is difficult to predict future climate changes in areas of complex relief, since mountains generate their own climates distinct from the free atmosphere. Thus trends in climate at the mountain surface are different from those in the free air. We compare surface climate (temperature and vapour pressure) measured at seven elevations on the south-western slope of Kilimanjaro, the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to January 2006. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperature anomalies are greatest at low elevations below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. However, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above the treeline (3000 m) are decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night and import of moisture from lower elevations during the day. The lower forested slopes thus act as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported in comparison with the free atmosphere (>5 hPa) which move upslope during daylight and subside downslope at night. Strong seasonal contrasts are shown in the vigour of the montane thermal circulation, but interactions with free air circulation (as represented by flow indices developed from reanalysis wind components) are complex. Upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) have limited influence on surface heating and upslope moisture advection, which are dominated by the diurnal cycle rather than inter-diurnal synoptic controls. Thus local changes in surface characteristics (e.g. deforestation) could have a direct influence on the mountain climate of Kilimanjaro, making the upper slopes somewhat divorced from larger scale advective changes associated with global warming.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the

Improving Incremental Balance in the GSI 3DVAR Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Errico, Ronald M.; Yang, Runhua; Kleist, Daryl T.; Parrish, David F.; Derber, John C.; Treadon, Russ

2008-01-01

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system is a unified global/regional 3DVAR analysis code that has been under development for several years at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center. It has recently been implemented into operations at NCEP in both the global and North American data assimilation systems (GDAS and NDAS). An important aspect of this development has been improving the balance of the analysis produced by GSI. The improved balance between variables has been achieved through the inclusion of a Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint (TLNMC). The TLNMC method has proven to be very robust and effective. The TLNMC as part of the global GSI system has resulted in substantial improvement in data assimilation both at NCEP and at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2013-12-01

In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

Testing forward model against OCO-2 and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT observed spectra in near infrared range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zadvornykh, Ilya V.; Gribanov, Konstantin G.

2015-11-01

An existing software package FIRE-ARMS (Fine InfraRed Explorer for Atmospheric Remote MeasurementS) was modified by embedding vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT. Thus the program tool includes both thermal (TIR) and near infrared (NIR) regions. We performed forward simulation of near infrared spectra on the top of the atmosphere for outgoing radiation accounting multiple scattering in cloudless atmosphere. Simulated spectra are compared with spectra measured by TANSO-FTS/GOSAT and OCO-2 in the condition of cloudless atmosphere over Western Siberia. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used to complete model atmosphere.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Assessing a local ensemble Kalman filter: perfect model experiments with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szunyogh, Istvan; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gyarmati, G.; Patil, D. J.; Hunt, Brian R.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Ott, Edward; Yorke, James A.

2005-08-01

The accuracy and computational efficiency of the recently proposed local ensemble Kalman filter (LEKF) data assimilation scheme is investigated on a state-of-the-art operational numerical weather prediction model using simulated observations. The model selected for this purpose is the T62 horizontal- and 28-level vertical-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The performance of the data assimilation system is assessed for different configurations of the LEKF scheme. It is shown that a modest size (40-member) ensemble is sufficient to track the evolution of the atmospheric state with high accuracy. For this ensemble size, the computational time per analysis is less than 9 min on a cluster of PCs. The analyses are extremely accurate in the mid-latitude storm track regions. The largest analysis errors, which are typically much smaller than the observational errors, occur where parametrized physical processes play important roles. Because these are also the regions where model errors are expected to be the largest, limitations of a real-data implementation of the ensemble-based Kalman filter may be easily mistaken for model errors. In light of these results, the importance of testing the ensemble-based Kalman filter data assimilation systems on simulated observations is stressed.

Building an Evaluation Framework for the VIC Model in the NLDAS Testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Mocko, D. M.; Wang, S.; Pan, M.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Wei, H.; Ek, M. B.

2017-12-01

Since the second phase of North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) was operationally implemented at NCEP in August 2014, developing the third phase of NLDAS system (NLDAS-3) has been a key task for the NCEP and NASA NLDAS team. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is one major component of the NLDAS system. The current operational NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.3 (VIC403), research NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.5 (VIC405), and LIS-based (Land Information System) NLDAS uses version 4.1.2 (VIC412). The purpose of this study is to compressively evaluate three versions and document changes in model behavior towards VIC412 for NLDAS-3. To do that, we develop a relatively comprehensive framework including multiple variables and metrics to assess the performance of different versions. This framework is being incorporated into the NASA Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) for evaluation of other LSMs for NLDAS-3 development. The evaluation results show that there are large and significant improvements for VIC412 in southeastern United States when compared with VIC403 and VIC405. In the other regions, there are very limited improvements or even some degree of deteriorations. Potential reasons are due to: (1) few USGS streamflow observations for soil and hydrologic parameter calibration, (2) the lack of re-calibration of VIC412 in the NLDAS domain, and (3) changes in model physics from VIC403 to VIC412. Overall, the model version upgrade largely/significantly enhances model performance and skill score for all United States except for the Great Plains, suggesting a right direction for VIC model development. Some further efforts are needed for science understanding of land surface physical processes in GP and a re-calibration for VIC412 using reasonable reference datasets is suggested.

Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

Source Inversion of Seismic Events Associated with the Sinkhole at Napoleonville Salt Dome, Louisiana using a 3D Velocity Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayak, Avinash; Dreger, Douglas S.

2018-05-01

The formation of a large sinkhole at the Napoleonville salt dome (NSD), Assumption Parish, Louisiana, caused by the collapse of a brine cavern, was accompanied by an intense and complex sequence of seismic events. We implement a grid-search approach to compute centroid locations and point-source moment tensor (MT) solutions of these seismic events using ˜0.1-0.3 Hz displacement waveforms and synthetic Green's functions computed using a 3D velocity model of the western edge of the NSD. The 3D model incorporates the currently known approximate geometry of the salt dome and the overlying anhydrite-gypsum cap rock, and features a large velocity contrast between the high velocity salt dome and low velocity sediments overlying and surrounding it. For each possible location on the source grid, Green's functions (GFs) to each station were computed using source-receiver reciprocity and the finite-difference seismic wave propagation software SW4. We also establish an empirical method to rigorously assess uncertainties in the centroid location, MW and source type of these events under evolving network geometry, using the results of synthetic tests with hypothetical events and real seismic noise. We apply the methods on the entire duration of data (˜6 months) recorded by the temporary US Geological Survey network. During an energetic phase of the sequence from 24-31 July 2012 when 4 stations were operational, the events with the best waveform fits are primarily located at the western edge of the salt dome at most probable depths of ˜0.3-0.85 km, close to the horizontal positions of the cavern and the future sinkhole. The data are fit nearly equally well by opening crack MTs in the high velocity salt medium or by isotropic volume-increase MTs in the low velocity sediment layers. We find that data recorded by 6 stations during 1-2 August 2012, right before the appearance of the sinkhole, indicate that some events are likely located in the lower velocity media just outside the

Ternary metal complexes of guaifenesin drug: Synthesis, spectroscopic characterization and in vitro anticancer activity of the metal complexes.

PubMed

Mahmoud, W H; Mahmoud, N F; Mohamed, G G; El-Sonbati, A Z; El-Bindary, A A

2015-01-01

The coordination behavior of a series of transition metal ions named Cr(III), Fe(III), Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II) and Cd(II) with a mono negative tridentate guaifenesin ligand (GFS) (OOO donation sites) and 1,10-phenanthroline (Phen) is reported. The metal complexes are characterized based on elemental analyses, IR, (1)H NMR, solid reflectance, magnetic moment, molar conductance, UV-vis spectral studies, mass spectroscopy, ESR, XRD and thermal analysis (TG and DTG). The ternary metal complexes were found to have the formulae of [M(GFS)(Phen)Cl]Cl·nH2O (M=Cr(III) (n=1) and Fe(III) (n=0)), [M(GFS)(Phen)Cl]·nH2O (M=Mn(II) (n=0), Zn(II) (n=0) and Cu(II) (n=3)) and [M(GFS)(Phen)(H2O)]Cl·nH2O (M=Co(II) (n=0), Ni(II) (n=0) and Cd(II) (n=4)). All the chelates are found to have octahedral geometrical structures. The ligand and its ternary chelates are subjected to thermal analyses (TG and DTG). The GFS ligand, in comparison to its ternary metal complexes also was screened for their antibacterial activity on gram positive bacteria (Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus), gram negative bacteria (Escherichia coli and Neisseria gonorrhoeae) and for in vitro antifungal activity against (Candida albicans). The activity data show that the metal complexes have antibacterial and antifungal activity more than the parent GFS ligand. The complexes were also screened for its in vitro anticancer activity against the Breast cell line (MFC7) and the results obtained show that they exhibit a considerable anticancer activity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal variation in xylem pressure of walnut trees: root and stem pressures.

PubMed

Ewers, F W; Améglio, T; Cochard, H; Beaujard, F; Martignac, M; Vandame, M; Bodet, C; Cruiziat, P

2001-09-01

Measurements of air and soil temperatures and xylem pressure were made on 17-year-old orchard trees and on 5-year-old potted trees of walnut (Juglans regia L.). Cooling chambers were used to determine the relationships between temperature and sugar concentration ([glucose] + [fructose] + [sucrose], GFS) and seasonal changes in xylem pressure development. Pressure transducers were attached to twigs of intact plants, root stumps and excised shoots while the potted trees were subjected to various temperature regimes in autumn, winter and spring. Osmolarity and GFS of the xylem sap (apoplast) were measured before and after cooling or warming treatments. In autumn and spring, xylem pressures of up to 160 kPa were closely correlated with soil temperature but were not correlated with GFS in xylem sap. High root pressures were associated with uptake of mineral nutrients from soil, especially nitrate. In autumn and spring, xylem pressures were detected in root stumps as well as in intact plants, but not in excised stems. In contrast, in winter, 83% of the xylem sap osmolarity in both excised stems and intact plants could be accounted for by GFS, and both GFS and osmolarity were inversely proportional to temperature. Plants kept at 1.5 degrees C developed positive xylem pressures up to 35 kPa, xylem sap osmolarities up to 260 mosmol l(-1) and GFS concentrations up to 70 g l(-1). Autumn and spring xylem pressures, which appeared to be of root origin, were about 55% of the theoretical pressures predicted by osmolarity of the xylem sap. In contrast, winter pressures appeared to be of stem origin and were only 7% of the theoretical pressures, perhaps because of a lower stem water content during winter.

Generation and periodontal differentiation of human gingival fibroblasts-derived integration-free induced pluripotent stem cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Xiaohui; Peking University Stem Cell Research Center and Department of Cell Biology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Beijing 100191; Li, Yang

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) have been recognized as a promising cell source for periodontal tissue regeneration. However, the conventional virus-based reprogramming approach is associated with a high risk of genetic mutation and limits their therapeutic utility. Here, we successfully generated iPSCs from readily accessible human gingival fibroblasts (hGFs) through an integration-free and feeder-free approach via delivery of reprogramming factors of Oct4, Sox2, Klf4, L-myc, Lin28 and TP53 shRNA with episomal plasmid vectors. The iPSCs presented similar morphology and proliferation characteristics as embryonic stem cells (ESCs), and expressed pluripotent markers including Oct4, Tra181, Nanog and SSEA-4. Additionally, these cells maintainedmore » a normal karyotype and showed decreased CpG methylation ratio in the promoter regions of Oct4 and Nanog. In vivo teratoma formation assay revealed the development of tissues representative of three germ layers, confirming the acquisition of pluripotency. Furthermore, treatment of the iPSCs in vitro with enamel matrix derivative (EMD) or growth/differentiation factor-5 (GDF-5) significantly up-regulated the expression of periodontal tissue markers associated with bone, periodontal ligament and cementum respectively. Taken together, our data demonstrate that hGFs are a valuable cell source for generating integration-free iPSCs, which could be sequentially induced toward periodontal cells under the treatment of EMD and GDF-5. - Highlights: • Integration-free iPSCs are successfully generated from hGFs via an episomal approach. • EMD promotes differentiation of the hGFs-derived iPSCs toward periodontal cells. • GDF-5 promotes differentiation of the hGFs-derived iPSCs toward periodontal cells. • hGFs-derived iPSCs could be a promising cell source for periodontal regeneration.« less

Rilonacept for gout flare prevention during initiation of uric acid-lowering therapy: results from the PRESURGE-2 international, phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

PubMed

Mitha, Essack; Schumacher, H Ralph; Fouche, Leon; Luo, Shue-Fen; Weinstein, Steven P; Yancopoulos, George D; Wang, Jian; King-Davis, Shirletta; Evans, Robert R

2013-07-01

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of IL-1 inhibitor rilonacept (IL-1 Trap) for gout flare (GF) prevention during initiation of uric acid-lowering therapy (ULT) with allopurinol in a multiregional phase 3 clinical trial. Hyperuricaemic adults (n = 248) from South Africa, Germany and Asia with gout and two or more GFs within the past year were initiated on allopurinol and randomized 1:1:1 to once-weekly s.c. treatment with placebo (PBO), rilonacept 80 mg (R80) or rilonacept 160 mg (R160) for 16 weeks. The primary endpoint was the number of GFs per patient through week 16. The population was predominantly male and racially diverse (white, 53.2%; Asian, 33.1%; black, 13.7%). Across treatments, most patients completed the study (87.8-92.9%). At 16 weeks the mean number of GFs per patient was reduced by 71.3% with R80 (0.35) and by 72.6% with R160 (0.34) relative to PBO (1.23; both P < 0.0001). The proportion of patients without GFs was higher with R80 (74.4%) and R160 (79.5%) than with PBO (43.9%; both P ≤ 0.0001), and the proportions of patients on rilonacept with multiple GFs were significantly lower (P < 0.001). Overall, the incidence of adverse events (AEs) was similar between PBO (61.0%) and rilonacept (65.1%). Injection site reactions, generally mild, were the most frequent AE with rilonacept (1.2% PBO, 12.2% R80 and 17.9% R160); none of these injection site reactions led to withdrawal. There were no study drug-related serious AEs or deaths. Rilonacept significantly reduced the occurrence of GFs associated with initiation of ULT, with >70% of patients having no flares, and demonstrated an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. ClinicalTrials.gov, http://clinicaltrials.gov/, NCT00958438.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

The DEDS: DSTO’s Environmental-Data Server for Research Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

AccuWeather.com, 2010. Available from: http:// www.accuweather.com/ [cited 15 June 2010]. 44. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, /data/gfs- avn ...hi. Available from: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfs- avn -hi/ [cited 15 June 2010]. 45. Wang, Y., L.R. Leung, J.L. McGregor, D.-K. Lee, W.-C

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yajuan; Wang, Lei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xidong

2015-11-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

Understanding the formation mechanism of graphene frameworks synthesized by solvothermal and rapid pyrolytic processes based on an alcohol-sodium hydroxide system.

PubMed

Cui, Huijuan; Zheng, Jianfeng; Yang, Pengju; Zhu, Yanyan; Wang, Zhijian; Zhu, Zhenping

2015-06-03

The determination of ways to facilitate the 2D-oriented assembly of carbons into graphene instead of other carbon structures while restraining the π-π stacking interaction is a challenge for the controllable bulk synthesis of graphene, which is vital both scientifically and technically. In this study, graphene frameworks (GFs) are synthesized by solvothermal and rapid pyrolytic processes based on an alcohol-sodium hydroxide system. The evolution mechanism of GFs is investigated systematically. Under sodium catalysis, the abundant carbon atoms produced by the fast decomposition of solvothermal intermediate self-assembled to graphene. The existence of abundant ether bonds may be favorable for 3D graphene formation. More importantly, GFs were successfully obtained using acetic acid as the carbon source in the synthetic process, suggesting the reasonability of analyzing the formation mechanism. It is quite possible to determine more favorable routes to synthesize graphene under this cognition. The electrochemical energy storage capacity of GFs was also studied, which revealed a high supercapacitor performance with a specific capacitance of 310.7 F/g at the current density of 0.2 A/g.

Ultrastrong Graphene-Copper Core-Shell Wires for High-Performance Electrical Cables.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Jin; Shin, Dong Heon; Choi, Yong Seok; Rho, Hokyun; Park, Min; Moon, Byung Joon; Kim, Youngsoo; Lee, Seuoung-Ki; Lee, Dong Su; Kim, Tae-Wook; Lee, Sang Hyun; Kim, Keun Soo; Hong, Byung Hee; Bae, Sukang

2018-03-27

Recent development in mobile electronic devices and electric vehicles requires electrical wires with reduced weight as well as enhanced stability. In addition, since electric energy is mostly generated from power plants located far from its consuming places, mechanically stronger and higher electric power transmission cables are strongly demanded. However, there has been no alternative materials that can practically replace copper materials. Here, we report a method to prepare ultrastrong graphene fibers (GFs)-Cu core-shell wires with significantly enhanced electrical and mechanical properties. The core GFs are synthesized by chemical vapor deposition, followed by electroplating of Cu shells, where the large surface area of GFs in contact with Cu maximizes the mechanical toughness of the core-shell wires. At the same time, the unique electrical and thermal characteristics of graphene allow a ∼10 times higher current density limit, providing more efficient and reliable delivery of electrical energies through the GFs-Cu wires. We believe that our results would be useful to overcome the current limit in electrical wires and cables for lightweight, energy-saving, and high-power applications.

NCEP HYSPLIT SMOKE & DUST Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

April May June July August Summer September October November December Prod vs Para Summer 2013 CA/MX Hawaii All regions PROD run All regions PARA run Select averaged hour: 1 hr average Select forecast four

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF). NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Select Cycle: 12Z 06Z Select Field: target(4Z-4Z) day_1 O3 1h max target(4Z-4Z) day_2 O3 1h max target(4Z-4Z) day_1 O3 8h max target(4Z-4Z) day_2 O3 8h max Select

A near real time regional JPSS and GOES-R data assimilation system for high impact weather research and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wang, P.; Han, H.; Schmit, T. J.

2014-12-01

JPSS and GOES-R observations play important role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, how to best represent the information from satellite observations and how to get value added information from these satellite data into regional NWP models, including both radiance and derived products, still need investigations. In order to enhance the applications of JPSS and GOES-R data in regional NWP for high impact weather forecasts, scientists from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at University of Wisconsin-Madison have recently developed a near realtime regional Satellite Data Assimilation system for Tropical storm forecasts (SDAT) (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/sdat). The system consists of the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system and the advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to assimilate GOES, AMSUA/AMSUB, HIRS, MHS, ATMS (Suomi-NPP), AIRS and IASI radiances, the SDAT is also able to assimilate satellite-derived products such as hyperspectral IR retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, total precipitable water (TPW), GOES Sounder (and future GOES-R) layer precipitable water (LPW) and GOES Imager atmospheric motion vector (AMV) products into the system. Real time forecasted GOES infrared (IR) images simulated from SDAT output have also been part of the SDAT system for applications and forecast evaluations. To set up the system parameters, a series of experiments have been carried out to test the impacts of different initialization schemes, including different background error matrix, different NCEP global model date sets, and different WRF model horizontal resolutions. Using SDAT as a research testbed, researches have been conducted for different satellite data impacts study, as well as different techniques for handling clouds in radiance assimilation. Since the fall of 2013, the SDAT system has been running in near real time. The results from historical cases and 2014

Alterations of Growth Factors in Autism and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Galvez-Contreras, Alma Y.; Campos-Ordonez, Tania; Gonzalez-Castaneda, Rocio E.; Gonzalez-Perez, Oscar

2017-01-01

Growth factors (GFs) are cytokines that regulate the neural development. Recent evidence indicates that alterations in the expression level of GFs during embryogenesis are linked to the pathophysiology and clinical manifestations of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this concise review, we summarize the current evidence that supports the role of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, insulin-like growth factor 2, hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), glial-derived neurotrophic factor, nerve growth factor, neurotrophins 3 and 4, and epidermal growth factor in the pathogenesis of ADHD and ASD. We also highlight the potential use of these GFs as clinical markers for diagnosis and prognosis of these neurodevelopmental disorders. PMID:28751869

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

Documentation (pdf) Latest statistics (comparing FNMOC raw and bias corrected ensemble forecast) Statistics For September (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb, NAEFS40nb, NAEFS/NUOPC60gb) Statistics For October (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb, NAEFS40nb, NAEFS/NUOPC60gb) Statistics For November (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb

Human lung fibroblast-derived matrix facilitates vascular morphogenesis in 3D environment and enhances skin wound healing.

PubMed

Du, Ping; Suhaeri, Muhammad; Ha, Sang Su; Oh, Seung Ja; Kim, Sang-Heon; Park, Kwideok

2017-05-01

Extracellular matrix (ECM) is crucial to many aspects of vascular morphogenesis and maintenance of vasculature function. Currently the recapitulation of angiogenic ECM microenvironment is still challenging, due mainly to its diverse components and complex organization. Here we investigate the angiogenic potential of human lung fibroblast-derived matrix (hFDM) in creating a three-dimensional (3D) vascular construct. hFDM was obtained via decellularization of in vitro cultured human lung fibroblasts and analyzed via immunofluorescence staining and ELISA, which detect multiple ECM macromolecules and angiogenic growth factors (GFs). Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) morphology was more elongated and better proliferative on hFDM than on gelatin-coated substrate. To prepare 3D construct, hFDM is collected, quantitatively analyzed, and incorporated in collagen hydrogel (Col) with HUVECs. Capillary-like structure (CLS) formation at 7day was significantly better with the groups containing higher doses of hFDM compared to the Col group (control). Moreover, the group (Col/hFDM/GFs) with both hFDM and angiogenic GFs (VEGF, bFGF, SDF-1) showed the synergistic activity on CLS formation and found much larger capillary lumen diameters with time. Further analysis of hFDM via angiogenesis antibody array kit reveals abundant biochemical cues, such as angiogenesis-related cytokines, GFs, and proteolytic enzymes. Significantly up-regulated expression of VE-cadherin and ECM-specific integrin subunits was also noticed in Col/hFDM/GFs. In addition, transplantation of Col/hFMD/GFs with HUVECs in skin wound model presents more effective re-epithelialization, many regenerated hair follicles, better transplanted cells viability, and advanced neovascularization. We believe that current system is a very promising platform for 3D vasculature construction in vitro and for cell delivery toward therapeutic applications in vivo. Functional 3D vasculature construction in vitro is still

Surface Water and Energy Budgets for Sub-Saharan Africa in GFDL Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Wood, E. F.; Vecchi, G. A.; Jia, L.; Pan, M.

2015-12-01

This study compare surface water and energy budget variables from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FLOR models with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (PGF), and PGF-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs, as well as available observations over the sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was made for four configurations of the FLOR models that included FLOR phase 1 (FLOR-p1) and phase 2 (FLOR-p2) and two phases of flux adjusted versions (FLOR-FA-p1 and FLOR-FA-p2). Compared to p1, simulated atmospheric states in p2 were nudged to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The seasonal cycle and annual mean of major surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and change of storage) and energy variables (sensible heat, ground heat, latent heat, net solar radiation, net longwave radiation, and skin temperature) over a 34-yr period during 1981-2014 were compared in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa). In addition to evaluating the means in three sub-regions, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analyses were conducted to compare both spatial and temporal characteristics of water and energy budget variables from four versions of GFDL FLOR, NCEP CFSR, PGF, and VIC outputs. This presentation will show how well each coupled climate model represented land surface physics and reproduced spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water and energy budget variables. We discuss what caused differences in surface water and energy budgets in land surface components of coupled climate model, climate reanalysis, and reanalysis driven land surface model. The comparisons will reveal whether flux adjustment and nudging would improve depiction of the surface water and energy budgets in coupled climate models.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

available at IMD Click here to go to the Special Report page Aug 2016 - IITM started experimental real-time Experimental version of GFS 10.0.0 ported to IITM & NCMRWF - February 2012 EnKF Hybrid GSI update - Spring diagnostics *Experimental* Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links... African Desk: SWFDP GFS forecasts South

High Resolution Modeling in Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Management: AN Extreme Precipitation Event Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masarik, M. T.; Watson, K. A.; Flores, A. N.; Anderson, K.; Tangen, S.

2016-12-01

The water resources infrastructure of the Western US is designed to deliver reliable water supply to users and provide recreational opportunities for the public, as well as afford flood control for communities by buffering variability in precipitation and snow storage. Thus water resource management is a balancing act of meeting multiple objectives while trying to anticipate and mitigate natural variability of water supply. Currently, the forecast guidance available to personnel managing resources in mountainous terrain is lacking in two ways: the spatial resolution is too coarse, and there is a gap in the intermediate time range (10-30 days). To address this need we examine the effectiveness of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art, regional, numerical weather prediction model, as a means to generate high-resolution weather guidance in the intermediate time range. This presentation will focus on a reanalysis and hindcasting case study of the extreme precipitation and flooding event in the Payette River Basin of Idaho during the period of June 2nd-4th, 2010. For the reanalysis exercise we use NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data sets as input boundary conditions to WRF. The model configuration includes a horizontal spatial resolution of 3km in the outer nest, and 1 km in the inner nest, with output temporal resolution of 3 hrs and 1 hr, respectively. The hindcast simulations, which are currently underway, will make use of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSRR) data. The current state of these runs will be discussed. Preparations for the second of two components in this project, weekly WRF forecasts during the intense portion of the water year, will be briefly described. These forecasts will use the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast data as boundary conditions to provide forecast guidance geared towards water resource

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather / VISION | About EMC EMC > GLOBAL BRANCH > GFS > HOME Home Implementations Documentation References Products Model Guidance Performance Developers VLab GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM Global Data

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

DOE Data Explorer

Klein, Stephen

2008-01-15

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Aeromedical evacuation of injured hikers in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Wong, Tai Wai; Lau, Ping Fat; Lau, Chor Chiu

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: Hiking is a very popular sport in Hong Kong. Serious injuries can sometimes occur in the remote areas not accessible to roads. Aeromedical evacuation service is run by the Government Flying Service (GFS) with emergency physicians and nurses as volunteers in Hong Kong. In this paper we describe the profile and outcome of injured hikers rescued by the GFS. METHODS: In this retrospective review, nature of the complaints, medical team composition, vital signs, clinical assessment and diagnosis on site were collected from the GFS medical record. Demographic data, final diagnoses and outcomes of the patients were retrieved from emergency department (ED) and hospital discharge records. RESULTS: A total of 275 cases were recruited for the 3-year period from January 2003 to December 2005. The mean age of the group was 39 years (range 1-83) with more males (159, 58%) than females. Heat illnesses, injuries and medical problems each constituted about one third of the cases. Lower limb injuries accounted for nearly half of the injuries. About 30% of the rescued hikers did not register to be seen at the ED. Only 48 hikers (17.5%) required admission and four were admitted to intensive/coronary care units for heat stroke and acute coronary syndrome. Five cases of pre-hospital cardiac arrest were recorded. CONCLUSION: Most hikers evacuated by the GFS did not suffer from serious conditions. GFS should still be prepared for the occasional cases that require advanced life support. PMID:25214963

Mode entanglement of Gaussian fermionic states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spee, C.; Schwaiger, K.; Giedke, G.; Kraus, B.

2018-04-01

We investigate the entanglement of n -mode n -partite Gaussian fermionic states (GFS). First, we identify a reasonable definition of separability for GFS and derive a standard form for mixed states, to which any state can be mapped via Gaussian local unitaries (GLU). As the standard form is unique, two GFS are equivalent under GLU if and only if their standard forms coincide. Then, we investigate the important class of local operations assisted by classical communication (LOCC). These are central in entanglement theory as they allow one to partially order the entanglement contained in states. We show, however, that there are no nontrivial Gaussian LOCC (GLOCC) among pure n -partite (fully entangled) states. That is, any such GLOCC transformation can also be accomplished via GLU. To obtain further insight into the entanglement properties of such GFS, we investigate the richer class of Gaussian stochastic local operations assisted by classical communication (SLOCC). We characterize Gaussian SLOCC classes of pure n -mode n -partite states and derive them explicitly for few-mode states. Furthermore, we consider certain fermionic LOCC and show how to identify the maximally entangled set of pure n -mode n -partite GFS, i.e., the minimal set of states having the property that any other state can be obtained from one state inside this set via fermionic LOCC. We generalize these findings also to the pure m -mode n -partite (for m >n ) case.

BIOMECHANICAL DIFFERENCES IN BRAZILIAN JIU-JITSU ATHLETES: THE ROLE OF COMBAT STYLE.

PubMed

Lima, Pedro Olavo de Paula; Lima, Alane Almeida; Coelho, Anita Camila Sampaio; Lima, Yuri Lopes; Almeida, Gabriel Peixoto Leão; Bezerra, Márcio Almeida; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Ribeiro

2017-02-01

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) athletes can be divided into two combat styles: pass fighters (PFs) and guard fighters (GFs). Flexibility of the posterior chain muscles is highly necessary in these athletes, especially in GFs. On the other hand, isometric strength of the trunk extensors is required in PFs. Handgrip strength is important in holding the kimono of the opponent, and symmetrical lower-limb strength is important for the prevention of injuries due to the overload caused by training. The aim of this study was to compare the biomechanical profiles of BJJ athletes with different combat styles using the following outcome measures: flexibility, trunk extensor isometric endurance, postural balance, handgrip isometric endurance and lower-limb muscle strength. A cross-sectional study was conducted using 19 GFs and 19 PFs. The sit-and-reach test was used to evaluate the flexibility of the posterior chain muscles. The Biodex Balance System® was used to evaluate balance. A handgrip dynamometer and a dorsal dynamometer were used to evaluate handgrip and trunk extensor endurance, respectively. Quadriceps and hamstring strength were evaluated with an isokinetic dynamometer at 60 °/s. No differences were observed between groups in terms of flexibility, balance, handgrip isometric endurance or quadriceps and hamstring strength; however, PFs (81.33) showed more isometric trunk extension endurance than GFs (68.85) ( p = 0.02). Both groups had low values for hamstring/quadriceps ratio. No significant biomechanical differences were observed between PFs and GFs. 2b.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Forecasting Ocean Waves: Comparing a Physics-Based Model with Statistical Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

m) 46029 (135 m) 46211 (38 m) ( CDIP -036) 42039 (307 m) 42040 (165 m) 42007 (14 m) Boundary forcing from NCEP WW3 ENP 15′×15′ resolution SWAN CNW-G1...wave energy. Acronyms and abbreviations CenGOOS Central Gulf Ocean Observing System CDIP Coastal Data Information Program CNW Coastal Northwest SWAN

Implementation of an online chemical mechanism within a global-regional atmospheric model: design and initial steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorba, O.; Pérez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-04-01

Chemical processes in air quality modelling systems are usually treated independently from the meteorological models. This approach is computationally attractive since off-line chemical transport simulations only require a single meteorological dataset to produce many chemical simulations. However, this separation of chemistry and meteorology produces a loss of important information about atmospheric processes and does not allow for feedbacks between chemistry and meteorology. To take into account such processes current models are evolving to an online coupling of chemistry and meteorology to produce consistent chemical weather predictions. The Earth Sciences Department of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) develops the NMMB/BSC-DUST (Pérez et al., 2008), an online dust model within the global-regional NCEP/NMMB numerical weather prediction model (Janjic and Black, 2007) under development at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system DREAM (Nickovic et al., 2001). The most relevant characteristics of NMMB/BSC-DUST are its on-line coupling of the dust scheme with the meteorological driver, the wide range of applications from meso to global scales, and the inclusion of dust radiative effects allowing feedbacks between aerosols and meteorology. In order to complement such development, BSC works also in the implementation of a fully coupled online chemical mechanism within NMMB/BSC-DUST. The final objective is to develop a fully chemical weather prediction system able to resolve gas-aerosol-meteorology interactions from global to local scales. In this contribution we will present the design of the chemistry coupling and the current progress of its implementation. Following the NCEP/NMMB approach, the chemistry part will be coupled through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) as a pluggable component. The chemical mechanism and chemistry solver is

Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

2017-04-01

A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

RAP "Rapid Refresh" Products

Science.gov Websites

HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule Rapid Refresh (RAP) Products Updated: 11/28/2016 * Information about the rap.tccz.awp243fxx.grib2 Not Available RAP - BUFR Sounding products Model Runs every hour (00z-23z) Filename Inventory

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Ensemble Users Meetings 7th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 13-15 June 2016 6th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 25 - 27 March 2014 5th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 10 - 12 May, 2011 4th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 13 - 15 May, 2008 3rd NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 31 Oct - 2 Nov, 2006 2nd NCEP/NWS

Preparation of Three-Dimensional Graphene Foams Using Powder Metallurgy Templates.

PubMed

Sha, Junwei; Gao, Caitian; Lee, Seoung-Ki; Li, Yilun; Zhao, Naiqin; Tour, James M

2016-01-26

A simple and scalable method which combines traditional powder metallurgy and chemical vapor deposition is developed for the synthesis of mesoporous free-standing 3D graphene foams. The powder metallurgy templates for 3D graphene foams (PMT-GFs) consist of particle-like carbon shells which are connected by multilayered graphene that shows high specific surface area (1080 m(2) g(-1)), good crystallization, good electrical conductivity (13.8 S cm(-1)), and a mechanically robust structure. The PMT-GFs did not break under direct flushing with DI water, and they were able to recover after being compressed. These properties indicate promising applications of PMT-GFs for fields requiring 3D carbon frameworks such as in energy-based electrodes and mechanical dampening.

Surface Current Skill Assessment of Global and Regional forecast models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.

2016-02-01

The U.S. Coast Guard has been using SAROPS since January 2007 at all fifty of its operational centers to plan search and rescue missions. SAROPS relies on an Environmental Data Server (EDS) that integrates global, national, and regional ocean and meteorological observation and forecast data. The server manages spatial and temporal aggregation of hindcast, nowcast, and forecast data so the SAROPS controller has the best available data for search planning. The EDS harvests a wide range of global and regional forecasts and data, including NOAA NCEP's global HYCOM model (RTOFS), the U.S. Navy's Global HYCOM model, the 5 NOAA NOS Great Lakes models and a suite of other reginal forecasts from NOS and IOOS Regional Associations. The EDS also integrates surface drifter data as the U.S. Coast Guard regularly deploys Self-Locating Datum Marker Buoys (SLDMBs) during SAR cases and a significant set of drifter data has been collected and the archive continues to grow. This data is critically useful during real-time SAR planning, but also represents a valuable scientific dataset for analyzing surface currents. In 2014, a new initiative was started by the U.S. Coast Guard to evaluate the skill of the various models to support the decision making process during search and rescue planning. This analysis falls into 2 categories: historical analysis of drifter tracks and model predictions to provide skill assessment of models in different regions and real-time analysis of models and drifter tracks during a SAR incident. The EDS, using Liu and Wiesberg's (2014) autonomously determines surface skill measurements of the co-located models' simulated surface trajectories versus the actual drift of the SLDMBs (CODE/Davis style surface drifters GPS positioned at 30min intervals). Surface skill measurements are archived in a database and are user retrieval by lat/long/time cubes. This paper will focus on the comparison of models from in the period from 23 August to 21 September 2015. Surface

Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

2017-04-01

The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

Quantifying Uncertainty of Wind Power Production Through an Analog Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahriari, M.; Cervone, G.

2016-12-01

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method is used to generate probabilistic weather forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in power estimates at hypothetical wind farm locations. The data are from the NREL Eastern Wind Dataset that includes more than 1,300 modeled wind farms. The AnEn model uses a two-dimensional grid to estimate the probability distribution of wind speed (the predictand) given the values of predictor variables such as temperature, pressure, geopotential height, U-component and V-component of wind. The meteorological data is taken from the NCEP GFS which is available on a 0.25 degree grid resolution. The methodology first divides the data into two classes: training period and verification period. The AnEn selects a point in the verification period and searches for the best matching estimates (analogs) in the training period. The predictand value at those analogs are the ensemble prediction for the point in the verification period. The model provides a grid of wind speed values and the uncertainty (probability index) associated with each estimate. Each wind farm is associated with a probability index which quantifies the degree of difficulty to estimate wind power. Further, the uncertainty in estimation is related to other factors such as topography, land cover and wind resources. This is achieved by using a GIS system to compute the correlation between the probability index and geographical characteristics. This study has significant applications for investors in renewable energy sector especially wind farm developers. Lower level of uncertainty facilitates the process of submitting bids into day ahead and real time electricity markets. Thus, building wind farms in regions with lower levels of uncertainty will reduce the real-time operational risks and create a hedge against volatile real-time prices. Further, the links between wind estimate uncertainty and factors such as topography and wind resources, provide wind farm developers with valuable

High-throughput investigation of endothelial-to-mesenchymal transformation (EndMT) with combinatorial cellular microarrays.

PubMed

Wang, Zongjie; Calpe, Blaise; Zerdani, Jalil; Lee, Youngsang; Oh, Jonghyun; Bae, Hojae; Khademhosseini, Ali; Kim, Keekyoung

2016-07-01

In the developing heart, a specific subset of endocardium undergoes an endothelial-to-mesenchymal transformation (EndMT) thus forming nascent valve leaflets. Extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins and growth factors (GFs) play important roles in regulating EndMT but the combinatorial effect of GFs with ECM proteins is less well understood. Here we use microscale engineering techniques to create single, binary, and tertiary component microenvironments to investigate the combinatorial effects of ECM proteins and GFs on the attachment and transformation of adult ovine mitral valve endothelial cells to a mesenchymal phenotype. With the combinatorial microenvironment microarrays, we utilized 60 different combinations of ECM proteins (Fibronectin, Collagen I, II, IV, Laminin) and GFs (TGF-β1, bFGF, VEGF) and were able to identify new microenvironmental conditions capable of modulating EndMT in MVECs. Experimental results indicated that TGF-β1 significantly upregulated the EndMT while either bFGF or VEGF downregulated EndMT process markedly. Also, ECM proteins could influence both the attachment of MVECs and the response of MVECs to GFs. In terms of attachment, fibronectin is significantly better for the adhesion of MVECs among the five tested proteins. Overall collagen IV and fibronectin appeared to play important roles in promoting EndMT process. Great consistency between macroscale and microarrayed experiments and present studies demonstrates that high-throughput cellular microarrays are a promising approach to study the regulation of EndMT in valvular endothelium. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2016;113: 1403-1412. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Distribution of gelatinous fibers in seedling roots of living cycads.

PubMed

Magellan, Tracy M; Griffith, M Patrick; Tomlinson, P Barry

2015-08-01

• The presence of gelatinous (tension) fibers (GFs) in the roots of two extant cycadales (Cycas and Zamia) in a recent publication raises interesting issues of GF distribution in seed plants. An immediate question that arises from this discovery is whether GFs occur consistently in the radicle of all extant cycad genera and therefore might have a similar role in root contraction. We present results of a survey of nursery-grown material of all 10 genera.• We sequentially sectioned seedling root material and used simple staining and histochemical methods to follow anatomical changes along the radicle of all 10 genera.• We found GFs in nine genera; Stangeria appears to be the only genus without them. In all genera, there is a wide variation in the number of GFs and also variation in the development of thickened, fleshy roots. "Tertiary expansion" is a useful term to describe late cell division and enlargement of both primary and secondary parenchyma, the latter produced by the vascular cambium. Certain other histological features can be diagnostically useful at the generic level.• The functional interpretation of GFs as being wholly responsible for apparent tissue contraction is now somewhat compromised, especially as distortion of tracheary elements by changes in dimensions of parenchyma cells can falsely suggest root contraction when it may not occur. These preliminary results point the way to a more precise investigation of study material grown in more uniform environments using advanced technological methods. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

BIOMECHANICAL DIFFERENCES IN BRAZILIAN JIU-JITSU ATHLETES: THE ROLE OF COMBAT STYLE

PubMed Central

Lima, Alane Almeida; Coelho, Anita Camila Sampaio; Lima, Yuri Lopes; Almeida, Gabriel Peixoto Leão; Bezerra, Márcio Almeida; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Ribeiro

2017-01-01

Background Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) athletes can be divided into two combat styles: pass fighters (PFs) and guard fighters (GFs). Flexibility of the posterior chain muscles is highly necessary in these athletes, especially in GFs. On the other hand, isometric strength of the trunk extensors is required in PFs. Handgrip strength is important in holding the kimono of the opponent, and symmetrical lower-limb strength is important for the prevention of injuries due to the overload caused by training. Purpose The aim of this study was to compare the biomechanical profiles of BJJ athletes with different combat styles using the following outcome measures: flexibility, trunk extensor isometric endurance, postural balance, handgrip isometric endurance and lower-limb muscle strength. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted using 19 GFs and 19 PFs. The sit-and-reach test was used to evaluate the flexibility of the posterior chain muscles. The Biodex Balance System® was used to evaluate balance. A handgrip dynamometer and a dorsal dynamometer were used to evaluate handgrip and trunk extensor endurance, respectively. Quadriceps and hamstring strength were evaluated with an isokinetic dynamometer at 60 °/s. Results No differences were observed between groups in terms of flexibility, balance, handgrip isometric endurance or quadriceps and hamstring strength; however, PFs (81.33) showed more isometric trunk extension endurance than GFs (68.85) (p = 0.02). Both groups had low values for hamstring/quadriceps ratio. Conclusion No significant biomechanical differences were observed between PFs and GFs. Level of Evidence 2b PMID:28217417

Evaluation of a Eulerian and Lagrangian air quality model using perfluorocarbon tracers released in Texas for the BRAVO haze study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schichtel, Bret A.; Barna, Michael G.; Gebhart, Kristi A.; Malm, William C.

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) study was designed to determine the sources of haze at Big Bend National Park, Texas, using a combination of source and receptor models. BRAVO included an intensive monitoring campaign from July to October 1999 that included the release of perfluorocarbon tracers from four locations at distances 230-750 km from Big Bend and measured at 24 sites. The tracer measurements near Big Bend were used to evaluate the dispersion mechanisms in the REMSAD Eulerian model and the CAPITA Monte Carlo (CMC) Lagrangian model used in BRAVO. Both models used 36 km MM5 wind fields as input. The CMC model also used a combination of routinely available 80 and 190 km wind fields from the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as input. A model's performance is limited by inherent uncertainties due to errors in the tracer concentrations and a model's inability to simulate sub-resolution variability. A range in the inherent uncertainty was estimated by comparing tracer data at nearby monitoring sites. It was found that the REMSAD and CMC models, using the MM5 wind field, produced performance statistics generally within this inherent uncertainty. The CMC simulation using the NCEP wind fields could reproduce the timing of tracer impacts at Big Bend, but not the concentration values, due to a systematic underestimation. It appears that the underestimation was partly due to excessive vertical dilution from high mixing depths. The model simulations were more sensitive to the input wind fields than the models' different dispersion mechanisms. Comparisons of REMSAD to CMC tracer simulations using the MM5 wind fields had correlations between 0.75 and 0.82, depending on the tracer, but the tracer simulations using the two wind fields in the CMC model had correlations between 0.37 and 0.5.

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part 1; Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nutter, Paul A.; Manobianco, John; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

This paper describes an objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 29-km eta model from May 1996 through January 1998. The evaluation was designed to assess the model's surface and upper-air point forecast accuracy at three selected locations during separate warm (May - August) and cool (October - January) season periods. In order to enhance sample sizes available for statistical calculations, the objective verification includes two consecutive warm and cool season periods. Systematic model deficiencies comprise the larger portion of the total error in most of the surface forecast variables that were evaluated. The error characteristics for both surface and upper-air forecasts vary widely by parameter, season, and station location. At upper levels, a few characteristic biases are identified. Overall however, the upper-level errors are more nonsystematic in nature and could be explained partly by observational measurement uncertainty. With a few exceptions, the upper-air results also indicate that 24-h model error growth is not statistically significant. In February and August 1997, NCEP implemented upgrades to the eta model's physical parameterizations that were designed to change some of the model's error characteristics near the surface. The results shown in this paper indicate that these upgrades led to identifiable and statistically significant changes in forecast accuracy for selected surface parameters. While some of the changes were expected, others were not consistent with the intent of the model updates and further emphasize the need for ongoing sensitivity studies and localized statistical verification efforts. Objective verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, is not enough to quantify the overall value that model guidance may add to the forecast process. Therefore, results from a subjective verification of the meso-eta model over the Florida peninsula are

Wind Wave Climate of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedeva, Alisa

2017-04-01

Storms in the Baltic Sea in autumn and winter are very frequent. In this research the goal is to estimate decadal and interannual changes of the wave fields for the entire Baltic Sea. The wave parameters, such as significant wave heights and periods, were simulated for the period 1979-2015 years based on NCEP/CFSR Reanalysis data fields and for the period 1948-2010 years based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. For accuracy estimation of the model the statistical characteristics, such as correlation coefficient, bias, scatter index and RMSE were calculated. Also two computational meshes were compared: rectangular and triangulated. In this study the third generation spectral wind-wave model SWAN was used for simulations. For wind input data two types of wind reanalysis were chosen: NCEP/CFSR with 1-hour time step and NCEP/NCAR with time step of 6 hours. The final computational grid for rectangular mesh for the Baltic Sea is 0.05×0.05°. The simulated data were compared with instrumental data of the Sweden buoys and of the acoustic wave recorder fixed at the Russian oil platform. The results reveal that for the Baltic Sea it is more efficient to use rectangular mesh for the deep open area and irregular mesh near the coast. Simulations using wind data from NCEP/NCAR significantly decreases the quality of the results compared with NCEP/CFSR wind data: Bias increases in 10 times (-0.730), RMSE - in 2-3 times (0.89). The following results of numerical modeling using NCEP/NCAR the storm situations, when the significant wave height exceeded 2 meters, were identified for the 63-year period. An average of about 50 storms per year happened in the Baltic Sea in this time period. The storminess of the Baltic Sea tends to increase. The twenty-year periodicity with the increase in the 70-s and 90-s years of XX century was revealed. The average yearly significant wave height increases in the second part of the century too and differs from 2.4 to 3.3 m. Storm cyclones are connected

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

Regional model simulation of summer rainfall over the Philippines: Effect of choice of driving fields and ocean flux schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, R. V.; Argete, J.; Giorgi, F.; Pal, J.; Bi, X.; Gutowski, W. J.

2006-09-01

The latest version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional model RegCM is used to investigate summer monsoon precipitation over the Philippine archipelago and surrounding ocean waters, a region where regional climate models have not been applied before. The sensitivity of simulated precipitation to driving lateral boundary conditions (NCEP and ERA40 reanalyses) and ocean surface flux scheme (BATS and Zeng) is assessed for 5 monsoon seasons. The ability of the RegCM to simulate the spatial patterns and magnitude of monsoon precipitation is demonstrated, both in response to the prominent large scale circulations over the region and to the local forcing by the physiographical features of the Philippine islands. This provides encouraging indications concerning the development of a regional climate modeling system for the Philippine region. On the other hand, the model shows a substantial sensitivity to the analysis fields used for lateral boundary conditions as well as the ocean surface flux schemes. The use of ERA40 lateral boundary fields consistently yields greater precipitation amounts compared to the use of NCEP fields. Similarly, the BATS scheme consistently produces more precipitation compared to the Zeng scheme. As a result, different combinations of lateral boundary fields and surface ocean flux schemes provide a good simulation of precipitation amounts and spatial structure over the region. The response of simulated precipitation to using different forcing analysis fields is of the same order of magnitude as the response to using different surface flux parameterizations in the model. As a result it is difficult to unambiguously establish which of the model configurations is best performing.

Developing of operational hydro-meteorological simulating and displaying system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Shih, D.; Chen, C.

2010-12-01

Hydrological hazards, which often occur in conjunction with extreme precipitation events, are the most frequent type of natural disaster in Taiwan. Hence, the researchers at the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) are devoted to analyzing and gaining a better understanding of the causes and effects of natural disasters, and in particular, typhoons and floods. The long-term goal of the TTFRI is to develop a unified weather-hydrological-oceanic model suitable for simulations with local parameterizations in Taiwan. The development of a fully coupled weather-hydrology interaction model is not yet completed but some operational hydro-meteorological simulations are presented as a step in the direction of completing a full model. The predicted rainfall data from Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) are used as our meteorological forcing on watershed modeling. The hydrology and hydraulic modeling are conducted by WASH123D numerical model. And the WRF/WASH123D coupled system is applied to simulate floods during the typhoon landfall periods. The daily operational runs start at 04UTC, 10UTC, 16UTC and 22UTC, about 4 hours after data downloaded from NCEP GFS. This system will execute 72-hr weather forecasts. The simulation of WASH123D will sequentially trigger after receiving WRF rainfall data. This study presents the preliminary framework of establishing this system, and our goal is to build this earlier warning system to alert the public form dangerous. The simulation results are further display by a 3D GIS web service system. This system is established following the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standardization process for GIS web service, such as Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS). The traditional 2D GIS data, such as high resolution aerial photomaps and satellite images are integrated into 3D landscape model. The simulated flooding and inundation area can be dynamically mapped on Wed 3D world. The final goal of this system is to real

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

Southwest Desert All regions PROD All regions PARA Select averaged hour: 8 hr sfc average 1 hr sfc average Select forecast four: Diurnal period 01-24 hr by day 25-48 hr by day Select statistic type: BIAS RMSE

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

average Select forecast four: Day 1 AOD skill for all thresholds Day 1 Time series for AOD GT 0 Day 2 AOD skill for all thresholds Day 2 Time series for AOD GT 0 Diurnal plots for AOD GT 0 Select statistic type

Weather Safety - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Safety Weather Safety This page weather safety. StormReady NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Information Network U.S. Hazard Assmt

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Evaluation of blocking performance in ensemble seasonal integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, M. J.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Pastor, M. A.

2003-04-01

EVALUATION OF BLOCKING PERFOMANCE IN ENSEMBLE SEASONAL INTEGRATIONS M. J. Casado (1), F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2), A. Pastor (1) (1) I Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, c/Leonardo Prieto Castro,8,28071 ,Madrid,Spain, mjcasado@inm.es (2) ECMWF, Shinfield Park,RG2 9AX, Reading, UK, f.doblas-reyes@ecmwf.int Climate models have shown a robust inability to reliably predict blocking onset and frequency. This systematic error has been evaluated using multi-model ensemble seasonal integrations carried out in the framework of the Prediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal and interanual Timescales (PROVOST) project and compared to a blocking features assessment of the NCEP re-analyses. The PROVOST GCMs are able to adequately reproduce the spatial NCEP teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere, being notorious the great spatial correlation coefficient with some of the corresponding NCEP patterns. In spite of that, the different models show a consistent underestimation of blocking frequency which may impact on the ability to predict the seasonal amplitude of the leading modes of variability over the Northern Hemisphere.

Hindcast of breaking waves and its impact at an island sheltered coast, Karwar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dora, G. Udhaba; Kumar, V. Sanil

2018-01-01

Variability in the characteristics of depth-induced wave breakers along a non-uniform coastal topography and its impact on the morpho-sedimentary processes is examined at the island sheltered wave-dominated micro-tidal coast, Karwar, west coast of India. Waves are simulated using the coupled wind wave model, SWAN nested in WAVEWATCH III, forced by the reanalysis winds from different sources (NCEP/NCAR, ECMWF, and NCEP/CFSR). Impact of the wave breakers is evaluated through mean longshore current and sediment transport for various wave energy conditions across different coastal morphology. Study revealed that the NCEP/CFSR wind is comparatively reasonable in simulation of nearshore waves using the SWAN model nested by 2D wave spectra generated from WAVEWATCH III. The Galvin formula for estimating mean longshore current using the crest wave period and the Kamphuis approximation for longshore sediment transport is observed realistically at the sheltered coastal environment while the coast interacts with spilling and plunging breakers.

A SEQUENTIAL, MULTIPLE-TREATMENT, TARGETED APPROACH TO REDUCE WOUND HEALING AND FAILURE OF GLAUCOMA FILTRATION SURGERY IN A RABBIT MODEL (AN AMERICAN OPHTHALMOLOGICAL SOCIETY THESIS)

PubMed Central

Sherwood, Mark Brian

2006-01-01

, when compared with the MMC blebs. Conclusions In a rabbit model of GFS, a sequential, targeted, multitreatment approach prolonged bleb survival compared to BSS controls and decreased bleb tissue morphological changes when compared to those treated with MMC. It is not known whether these findings can be reproduced in humans, and further work is needed to determine an optimum regimen and timing of therapeutic delivery. PMID:17471357

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

Coupling the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) with the Statistical Spectral Interpolation (SSI) System under ESMF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

daSilva, Arlindo

2004-01-01

The first set of interoperability experiments illustrates the role ESMF can play in integrating the national Earth science resources. Using existing data assimilation technology from NCEP and the National Weather Service, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) was able to ingest conventional and remotely sensed observations, a capability that could open the door to using CAM for weather as well as climate prediction. CAM, which includes land surface capabilities, was developed by NCAR, with key components from GSFC. In this talk we will describe the steps necessary for achieving the coupling of these two systems.

Streamflow model of the six-country transboundary Ganges-Bhramaputra and Meghna river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, K.; Lehmann, A.; Dennedy-Frank, P. J.; Gorelick, S.

2014-12-01

Extremely large-scale river basin modelling remains a challenge for water resources planning in the developing world. Such planning is particularly difficult in the developing world because of the lack of data on both natural (climatological, hydrological) processes and complex anthropological influences. We simulate three enormous river basins located in south Asia. The Ganges-Bhramaputra and Meghna (GBM) River Basins cover an area of 1.75 million km2 associated with 6 different countries, including the Bengal delta, which is the most densely populated delta in the world with ~600 million people. We target this developing region to better understand the hydrological system and improve water management planning in these transboundary watersheds. This effort uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate streamflow in the GBM River Basins and assess the use of global climatological datasets for such large scale river modeling. We evaluate the utility of three global rainfall datasets to reproduce measured river discharge: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) from NASA, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, and the World Metrological Organization (WMO) reanalysis. We use global datasets for spatial information as well: 90m DEM from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission, 300m GlobCover land use maps, and 1000 km FAO soil map. We find that SWAT discharge estimates match the observed streamflow well (NSE=0.40-0.66, R2=0.60-0.70) when using meteorological estimates from the NCEP reanalysis. However, SWAT estimates diverge from observed discharge when using meteorological estimates from TRMM and the WMO reanalysis.

Increased phase synchronization during continuous face integration measured simultaneously with EEG and fMRI.

PubMed

Kottlow, Mara; Jann, Kay; Dierks, Thomas; Koenig, Thomas

2012-08-01

Gamma zero-lag phase synchronization has been measured in the animal brain during visual binding. Human scalp EEG studies used a phase locking factor (trial-to-trial phase-shift consistency) or gamma amplitude to measure binding but did not analyze common-phase signals so far. This study introduces a method to identify networks oscillating with near zero-lag phase synchronization in human subjects. We presented unpredictably moving face parts (NOFACE) which - during some periods - produced a complete schematic face (FACE). The amount of zero-lag phase synchronization was measured using global field synchronization (GFS). GFS provides global information on the amount of instantaneous coincidences in specific frequencies throughout the brain. Gamma GFS was increased during the FACE condition. To localize the underlying areas, we correlated gamma GFS with simultaneously recorded BOLD responses. Positive correlates comprised the bilateral middle fusiform gyrus and the left precuneus. These areas may form a network of areas transiently synchronized during face integration, including face-specific as well as binding-specific regions and regions for visual processing in general. Thus, the amount of zero-lag phase synchronization between remote regions of the human visual system can be measured with simultaneously acquired EEG/fMRI. Copyright © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploiting the atmosphere's memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

. The corresponding space-time model (the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) is thus only multifractal in space where the spatial intermittency is associated with different climate zones. SLIMM exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and uses the long historical memory of the temperature series to improve the skill. The only model parameter is the fluctuation scaling exponent, H (usually in the range -0.5 - 0), which is directly related to the skill and can be obtained from the data. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5° x 5° regions covering the planet using ERA-Interim, 20CRv2 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as reference datasets. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we compare it with actual skill based on hindcasts for monthly, seasonal and annual resolutions. We also present maps of calibrated probability hindcasts with their respective validations. Comparisons between our results using SLIMM, some other stochastic autoregressive model, and hindcasts from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s model CFSv2, are also shown. For seasonal temperature forecasts, SLIMM outperforms the GCM based forecasts in over 90% of the earth's surface. SLIMM forecasts can be accessed online through the site: http://www.to_be_announced.mcgill.ca.

NCEP Quarterly Newsletter

Science.gov Websites

second (40-level, different physics/PBL) ARW member is added for all domains (except Guam). The two ARW Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage National Centers for Environmental Prediction

An operational global ocean forecast system and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehra, A.; Tolman, H. L.; Rivin, I.; Rajan, B.; Spindler, T.; Garraffo, Z. D.; Kim, H.

2012-12-01

A global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) was implemented in operations at NCEP/NWS/NOAA on 10/25/2011. This system is based on an eddy resolving 1/12 degree global HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinates Ocean Model) and is part of a larger national backbone capability of ocean modeling at NWS in strong partnership with US Navy. The forecast system is run once a day and produces a 6 day long forecast using the daily initialization fields produced at NAVOCEANO using NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation), a 3D multi-variate data assimilation methodology. As configured within RTOFS, HYCOM has a horizontal equatorial resolution of 0.08 degrees or ~9 km. The HYCOM grid is on a Mercator projection from 78.64 S to 47 N and north of this it employs an Arctic dipole patch where the poles are shifted over land to avoid a singularity at the North Pole. This gives a mid-latitude (polar) horizontal resolution of approximately 7 km (3.5 km). The coastline is fixed at 10 m isobath with open Bering Straits. This version employs 32 hybrid vertical coordinate surfaces with potential density referenced to 2000 m. Vertical coordinates can be isopycnals, often best for resolving deep water masses, levels of equal pressure (fixed depths), best for the well mixed unstratified upper ocean and sigma-levels (terrain-following), often the best choice in shallow water. The dynamic ocean model is coupled to a thermodynamic energy loan ice model and uses a non-slab mixed layer formulation. The forecast system is forced with 3-hourly momentum, radiation and precipitation fluxes from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) fields. Results include global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity fields used for validation and evaluation against available observations. Several downstream applications of this forecast system will also be discussed which include search and rescue operations at US Coast Guard, navigation safety information

Improving the Amazonian Hydrologic Cycle in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere, Single Column Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, A. B.; Denning, S.; Baker, I.; Prihodko, L.; Branson, M.

2006-12-01

We have coupled a land-surface model, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3), to a single column of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU-GCM) in the Amazon River Basin. This is a preliminary step in the broader goal of improved simulation of Basin-wide hydrology. A previous version of the coupled model (SiB2) showed drought and catastrophic dieback of the Amazon rain forest. SiB3 includes updated soil hydrology and root physiology. Our test area for the coupled single column model is near Santarem, Brazil, where measurements from the km 83 flux tower in the Tapajos National Forest can be used to evaluate model output. The model was run for 2001 using NCEP2 Reanalysis as driver data. Preliminary results show that the updated biosphere model coupled to the GCM produces improved simulations of the seasonal cycle of surface water balance and precipitation. Comparisons of the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface fluxes are also being made.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Mailing Lists There are two listservs for the MTT group: announce and discuss To join the listservs go here: Announce - https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.emc_porting-announce Discuss - https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.emc_porting-discuss To email the lists: Announce

Growth Factor-Induced Mobilization of Cardiac Progenitor Cells Reduces the Risk of Arrhythmias, in a Rat Model of Chronic Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Graiani, Gallia; Rossi, Stefano; Agnetti, Aldo; Stillitano, Francesca; Lagrasta, Costanza; Baruffi, Silvana; Berni, Roberta; Frati, Caterina; Vassalle, Mario; Squarcia, Umberto; Cerbai, Elisabetta; Macchi, Emilio; Stilli, Donatella; Quaini, Federico; Musso, Ezio

2011-01-01

Heart repair by stem cell treatment may involve life-threatening arrhythmias. Cardiac progenitor cells (CPCs) appear best suited for reconstituting lost myocardium without posing arrhythmic risks, being commissioned towards cardiac phenotype. In this study we tested the hypothesis that mobilization of CPCs through locally delivered Hepatocyte Growth Factor and Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1 to heal chronic myocardial infarction (MI), lowers the proneness to arrhythmias. We used 133 adult male Wistar rats either with one-month old MI and treated with growth factors (GFs, n = 60) or vehicle (V, n = 55), or sham operated (n = 18). In selected groups of animals, prior to and two weeks after GF/V delivery, we evaluated stress-induced ventricular arrhythmias by telemetry-ECG, cardiac mechanics by echocardiography, and ventricular excitability, conduction velocity and refractoriness by epicardial multiple-lead recording. Invasive hemodynamic measurements were performed before sacrifice and eventually the hearts were subjected to anatomical, morphometric, immunohistochemical, and molecular biology analyses. When compared with untreated MI, GFs decreased stress-induced arrhythmias and concurrently prolonged the effective refractory period (ERP) without affecting neither the duration of ventricular repolarization, as suggested by measurements of QTc interval and mRNA levels for K-channel α-subunits Kv4.2 and Kv4.3, nor the dispersion of refractoriness. Further, markers of cardiomyocyte reactive hypertrophy, including mRNA levels for K-channel α-subunit Kv1.4 and β-subunit KChIP2, interstitial fibrosis and negative structural remodeling were significantly reduced in peri-infarcted/remote ventricular myocardium. Finally, analyses of BrdU incorporation and distribution of connexin43 and N-cadherin indicated that cytokines generated new vessels and electromechanically-connected myocytes and abolished the correlation of infarct size with deterioration of mechanical

National Cholesterol Educational Program and International Diabetes Federation diagnostic criteria for metabolic syndrome in an Italian cohort: results from the FIBAR Study.

PubMed

Mannucci, E; Monami, M; Bardini, G; Ognibene, A; Rotella, C M

2007-12-01

The adoption of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS), in comparison with the National Cholesterol Educational Program (NCEP) criteria, produces different changes in estimates of prevalence in diverse populations. Few data are available in Caucasian non-diabetic subjects. The prevalence of NCEP- and IDF-defined MS was assessed in a sample of 2,945 individuals, aged 55.2+/-11.5 yr, enrolled in a screening program for diabetes. Association of different definitions of MS with glucose intolerance (120-min glucose 7.8 mmol/l after a 75 g-oral glucose load) and hyperuricemia (>0.38 mmol/l) was also assessed. The prevalence of MS was 16.6% and 29.7% with NCEP and IDF definitions, respectively. The prevalence of NCEP-defined MS was higher than IDF-MS through all age ranges; among those aged >60 yr, the prevalence of IDF-MS reached 52.8% (vs 33.1% for NCEP-MS). Both NCEP- and IDF-MS were associated with glucose intolerance and hyperuricemia. Individuals fulfilling IDF, but not NCEP criteria for MS, showed a prevalence of glucose intolerance (22.7%) significantly (p<0.05) lower than those fulfilling NCEP criteria only (31.6%) or both sets of criteria (31.8%). In Caucasian subjects without known diabetes, IDF criteria produce a relevant increase in estimates of prevalence of MS, particularly in older subjects, when compared with NCEP criteria. NCEP-MS seems to be more effective than IDF-MS in the identification of glucose intolerant subjects.

A Role of Oral Bacteria in Bisphosphonate-induced Osteonecrosis of the Jaw

PubMed Central

Mawardi, H.; Giro, G.; Kajiya, M.; Ohta, K.; Almazrooa, S.; Alshwaimi, E.; Woo, S.-B.; Nishimura, I.; Kawai, T.

2011-01-01

No consensus has yet been reached to associate oral bacteria conclusively with the etio-pathogenesis of bisphosphonate-induced osteonecrosis of the jaw (BONJ). Therefore, the present study examined the effects of oral bacteria on the development of BONJ-like lesions in a mouse model. In the pamidronate (Pam)-treated mice, but not control non-drug-treated mice, tooth extraction followed by oral infection with Fusobacterium nucleatum caused BONJ-like lesions and delayed epithelial healing, both of which were completely suppressed by a broad-spectrum antibiotic cocktail. Furthermore, in both in vitro and in vivo experiments, the combination of Pam and Fusobacterium nucleatum caused the death of gingival fibroblasts (GFs) and down-regulated their production of keratinocyte growth factor (KGF), which induces epithelial cell growth and migration. Therefore, in periodontal tissues pre-exposed to bisphosphonate, bacterial infection at tooth extraction sites caused diminished KGF expression in GFs, leading to a delay in the epithelial wound-healing process that was mitigated by antibiotics. PMID:21921248

Realtime Hourly Data Table

Science.gov Websites

Tables View the latest hourly text summary CLICK ON UNDERLINED HOUR / SHADED BOX FOR THE LATEST CYCLE 00z Dump Tables View the latest rap text summary CLICK ON UNDERLINED HOUR / SHADED BOX FOR THE LATEST CYCLE Data Dump Tables View the latest model data text summary NAM GFS GDS CLICK ON UNDERLINED HOUR / SHADED

On the origin and destination of atmospheric moisture and air mass over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin; Xu, Xiang-De; Yang, Shuai; Zhang, Wei

2012-12-01

The Tibet Plateau (TP) is a key region that imposes profound impacts on the atmospheric water cycle and energy budget of Asia, even the global climate. In this work, we develop a climatology of origin (destination) of air mass and moisture transported to (from) the TP using a Lagrangian moisture diagnosis combined with the forward and backward atmospheric tracking schemes. The climatology is derived from 6-h particle positions based on 5-year (2005-2009) seasonal summer trajectory dataset from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART using NCEP/GFS data as input, where the regional model atmosphere was globally filled with particles. The results show that (1) the dominant origin of the moisture supplied to the TP is a narrow tropical-subtropical band in the extended Arabian Sea covering a long distance from the Indian subcontinent to the Southern Hemisphere. Two additional moisture sources are located in the northwestern part of TP and the Bay of Bengal and play a secondary role. This result indicates that the moisture transporting to the TP more depends on the Indian summer monsoon controlled by large-scale circulation. (2) The moisture departing from the TP can be transported rapidly to East Asia, including East China, Korea, Japan, and even East Pacific. The qualitative similarity between the regions of diagnosed moisture loss and the pattern of the observed precipitation highlights the robustness of the role of the TP on precipitation over East Asia. (3) In contrast to the moisture origin confined in the low level, the origin and fate of whole column air mass over the TP is largely controlled by a strong high-level Asian anticyclone. The results show that the TP is a crossroad of air mass where air enters mainly from the northwest and northeast and continues in two separate streams: one goes southwestwards over the Indian Ocean and the other southeastwards through western North Pacific. Both of them partly enter the trade wind zone, which manifests the

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Darden, Chris; Dembek, Scott

2003-01-01

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.; Sankey, D.; Shepherd, T. G.

2006-07-01

Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.

Snow Climatology of Arctic Sea Ice: Comparison of Reanalysis and Climate Model Data with In Situ Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevooruvalappil Chandran, B.; Pittana, M.; Haas, C.

2015-12-01

Snow on sea ice is a critical and complex factor influencing sea ice processes. Deep snow with a high albedo and low thermal conductivity inhibits ice growth in winter and minimizes ice loss in summer. Very shallow or absent snow promotes ice growth in winter and ice loss in summer. The timing of snow ablation critically impacts summer sea ice mass balance. Here we assess the accuracy of various snow on sea ice data products from reanalysis and modeling comparing them with in situ measurements. The latter are based on the Warren et al. (1999) monthly climatology derived from snow ruler measurements between 1954-1991, and on daily snow depth retrievals from few drifting ice mass balance buoys (IMB) with sufficiently long observations spanning the summer season. These were compared with snow depth data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP), the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4), and the Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2). Results are quite variable in different years and regions. However, there is often good agreement between CanESM2 and IMB snow depth during the winter accumulation and spring melt periods. Regional analyses show that over the western Arctic covered primarily with multiyear ice NCEP snow depths are in good agreement with the Warren climatology while CCSM4 overestimates snow depth. However, in the Eastern Arctic which is dominated by first-year ice the opposite behavior is observed. Compared to the Warren climatology CanESM2 underestimates snow depth in all regions. Differences between different snow depth products are as large as 10 to 20 cm, with large consequences for the sea ice mass balance. However, it is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis and model snow depths due to a lack of extensive, continuous in situ measurements.

Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2015-01-01

Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

Coupling the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v. 2.0) to Environment and Climate Change Canada's greenhouse gas forecast model (v.107-glb)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Bakr; Polavarapu, Saroja; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Deng, Feng; Neish, Michael; Melton, Joe R.; Nassar, Ray; Arora, Vivek K.

2018-02-01

The Canadian Land Surface Scheme and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM) together form the land surface component in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs). Here, CLASS-CTEM is coupled to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s weather and greenhouse gas forecast model (GEM-MACH-GHG) to consistently model atmosphere-land exchange of CO2. The coupling between the land and the atmospheric transport model ensures consistency between meteorological forcing of CO2 fluxes and CO2 transport. The procedure used to spin up carbon pools for CLASS-CTEM for multi-decadal simulations needed to be significantly altered to deal with the limited availability of consistent meteorological information from a constantly changing operational environment in the GEM-MACH-GHG model. Despite the limitations in the spin-up procedure, the simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological forcing from GEM-MACH-GHG were comparable to those obtained from CLASS-CTEM when it is driven with standard meteorological forcing from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) combined with reanalysis fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to form CRU-NCEP dataset. This is due to the similarity of the two meteorological datasets in terms of temperature and radiation. However, notable discrepancies in the seasonal variation and spatial patterns of precipitation estimates, especially in the tropics, were reflected in the estimated carbon fluxes, as they significantly affected the magnitude of the vegetation productivity and, to a lesser extent, the seasonal variations in carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, the simulated fluxes based on the meteorological forcing from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are consistent to some extent with other estimates from bottom-up or top-down approaches. Indeed, when simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological data from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are used as prior estimates

Evaluation of High Density Surface Observations in Complex Terrain and Their Contribution to the MM5 Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

westerly surface winds, the existence of a dry-adiabatic lapse rate, and often the appearance of wave cloud features (Oard, 1993). For a long time...indicate that a large-scale mountain wave feature was present across almost the entire western United States. The GFS indicates this was a standing 31... wave and not a propagating feature since it persisted with very little movement from about 0600 UTC 6 Mar until about 0000 UTC 7 Mar. A cross

Evaluation of NOAA's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 12 km North America Model (NAM12) and 4km North America Model (NAM 4) hub-height wind speed forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergrass, W.; Vogel, C. A.

2013-12-01

As an outcome of discussions between Duke Energy Generation and NOAA/ARL following the 2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting, in Norman Oklahoma, ARL and Duke Energy Generation (Duke) signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) which allows NOAA to conduct atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) research using Duke renewable energy sites as research testbeds. One aspect of this research has been the evaluation of forecast hub-height winds from three NOAA atmospheric models. Forecasts of 10m (surface) and 80m (hub-height) wind speeds from (1) NOAA/GSD's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, (2) NOAA/NCEP's 12 km North America Model (NAM12) and (3) NOAA/NCEP's 4k high resolution North America Model (NAM4) were evaluated against 18 months of surface-layer wind observations collected at the joint NOAA/Duke Energy research station located at Duke Energy's West Texas Ocotillo wind farm over the period April 2011 through October 2012. HRRR, NAM12 and NAM4 10m wind speed forecasts were compared with 10m level wind speed observations measured on the NOAA/ATDD flux-tower. Hub-height (80m) HRRR , NAM12 and NAM4 forecast wind speeds were evaluated against the 80m operational PMM27-28 meteorological tower supporting the Ocotillo wind farm. For each HRRR update, eight forecast hours (hour 01, 02, 03, 05, 07, 10, 12, 15) plus the initialization hour (hour 00), evaluated. For the NAM12 and NAM4 models forecast hours 00-24 from the 06z initialization were evaluated. Performance measures or skill score based on absolute error 50% cumulative probability were calculated for each forecast hour. HRRR forecast hour 01 provided the best skill score with an absolute wind speed error within 0.8 m/s of observed 10m wind speed and 1.25 m/s for hub-height wind speed at the designated 50% cumulative probability. For both NAM4 and NAM12 models, skill scores were diurnal with comparable best scores observed during the day of 0.7 m/s of observed 10m wind speed and 1.1 m/s for hub

Downscaling Reanalysis over Continental Africa with a Regional Model: NCEP Versus ERA Interim Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2013-01-01

Five annual climate cycles (1998-2002) are simulated for continental Africa and adjacent oceans by a regional atmospheric model (RM3). RM3 horizontal grid spacing is 0.44deg at 28 vertical levels. Each of 2 simulation ensembles is driven by lateral boundary conditions from each of 2 alternative reanalysis data sets. One simulation downs cales National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis 2 (NCPR2) and the other the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). NCPR2 data are archived at 2.5deg grid spacing, while a recent version of ERA-I provides data at 0.75deg spacing. ERA-I-forced simulations are recomrp. ended by the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Comparisons of the 2 sets of simulations with each other and with observational evidence assess the relative performance of each downscaling system. A third simulation also uses ERA-I forcing, but degraded to the same horizontal resolution as NCPR2. RM3-simulated pentad and monthly mean precipitation data are compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, gridded at 0.5deg, and RM3-simulated circulation is compared to both reanalyses. Results suggest that each downscaling system provides advantages and disadvantages relative to the other. The RM3/NCPR2 achieves a more realistic northward advance of summer monsoon rains over West Africa, but RM3/ERA-I creates the more realistic monsoon circulation. Both systems recreate some features of JulySeptember 1999 minus 2002 precipitation differences. Degrading the resolution of ERA-I driving data unrealistically slows the monsoon circulation and considerably diminishes summer rainfall rates over West Africa. The high resolution of ERA-I data, therefore, contributes to the quality of the downscaling, but NCPR2laterai boundary conditions nevertheless produce better simulations of some features.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

The Global File System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soltis, Steven R.; Ruwart, Thomas M.; OKeefe, Matthew T.

1996-01-01

The global file system (GFS) is a prototype design for a distributed file system in which cluster nodes physically share storage devices connected via a network-like fiber channel. Networks and network-attached storage devices have advanced to a level of performance and extensibility so that the previous disadvantages of shared disk architectures are no longer valid. This shared storage architecture attempts to exploit the sophistication of storage device technologies whereas a server architecture diminishes a device's role to that of a simple component. GFS distributes the file system responsibilities across processing nodes, storage across the devices, and file system resources across the entire storage pool. GFS caches data on the storage devices instead of the main memories of the machines. Consistency is established by using a locking mechanism maintained by the storage devices to facilitate atomic read-modify-write operations. The locking mechanism is being prototyped in the Silicon Graphics IRIX operating system and is accessed using standard Unix commands and modules.

Innovations in gene and growth factor delivery systems for diabetic wound healing

PubMed Central

Laiva, Ashang Luwang; O'Brien, Fergal J.

2017-01-01

Abstract The rise in lower extremity amputations due to nonhealing of foot ulcers in diabetic patients calls for rapid improvement in effective treatment regimens. Administration of growth factors (GFs) are thought to offer an off‐the‐shelf treatment; however, the dose‐ and time‐dependent efficacy of the GFs together with the hostile environment of diabetic wound beds impose a major hindrance in the selection of an ideal route for GF delivery. As an alternative, the delivery of therapeutic genes using viral and nonviral vectors, capable of transiently expressing the genes until the recovery of the wounded tissue offers promise. The development of implantable biomaterial dressings capable of modulating the release of either single or combinatorial GFs/genes may offer solutions to this overgrowing problem. This article reviews the state of the art on gene and protein delivery and the strategic optimization of clinically adopted delivery strategies for the healing of diabetic wounds. PMID:28482114

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. C.; Cai, Ming; Kalnay, E.; Rienecker, M.; Yuan, G.; Toth, ZA.

2004-01-01

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

A test harness for accelerating physics parameterization advancements into operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firl, G. J.; Bernardet, L.; Harrold, M.; Henderson, J.; Wolff, J.; Zhang, M.

2017-12-01

The process of transitioning advances in parameterization of sub-grid scale processes from initial idea to implementation is often much quicker than the transition from implementation to use in an operational setting. After all, considerable work must be undertaken by operational centers to fully test, evaluate, and implement new physics. The process is complicated by the scarcity of like-to-like comparisons, availability of HPC resources, and the ``tuning problem" whereby advances in physics schemes are difficult to properly evaluate without first undertaking the expensive and time-consuming process of tuning to other schemes within a suite. To address this process shortcoming, the Global Model TestBed (GMTB), supported by the NWS NGGPS project and undertaken by the Developmental Testbed Center, has developed a physics test harness. It implements the concept of hierarchical testing, where the same code can be tested in model configurations of varying complexity from single column models (SCM) to fully coupled, cycled global simulations. Developers and users may choose at which level of complexity to engage. Several components of the physics test harness have been implemented, including a SCM and an end-to-end workflow that expands upon the one used at NOAA/EMC to run the GFS operationally, although the testbed components will necessarily morph to coincide with changes to the operational configuration (FV3-GFS). A standard, relatively user-friendly interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) is available for physics developers to connect their codes. This prerequisite exercise allows access to the testbed tools and removes a technical hurdle for potential inclusion into the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP). The testbed offers users the opportunity to conduct like-to-like comparisons between the operational physics suite and new development as well as among multiple developments. GMTB staff have demonstrated use of the testbed through a

A Network of Direct Broadcast Antenna Systems to Provide Real-Time Infrared and Microwave Sounder Data for Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumley, L.

2013-12-01

The Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison is creating a network of direct broadcast satellite data reception stations to acquire and process infrared and microwave sounder data in real-time from polar orbiting meteorological satellites and deliver the resulting products to NOAA with low latency for assimilation in NCEP numerical weather prediction models. The network will include 4 antenna sites that will be operated directly by SSEC, including Madison WI, Honolulu HI, Miami FL, and Mayaguez PR. The network will also include partner antenna sites not directly controlled by SSEC, including Corvallis OR, Monterey CA, Suitland MD, Fairbanks AK, and Guam. All of the antenna sites will have a combined X/L-band reception system capable of receiving data via direct broadcast from polar orbiting satellites including Suomi NPP and JPSS-1, Metop-A/B, POES,Terra, and Aqua. Each site will collect raw data from these satellites locally, process it to Level 1 (SDR) and Level 2 (EDR) products, and transmit the products back to SSEC for delivery to NOAA/NCEP. The primary purpose of the antenna systems is to provide real-time infrared and microwave sounder data from Metop and Suomi-NPP to NOAA to support data assimilation for NOAA/NCEP operational numerical weather prediction models. At present, NOAA/NCEP use of advanced infrared (CrIS, IASI, AIRS) and microwave (ATMS, AMSU) sounder data over North America in NWP data assimilation is limited because of the latency of the products in relation to the cutoff times for assimilation runs. This network will deliver infrared and microwave sounder data to NCEP with the lowest latency possible, via the reception and processing of data received via direct broadcast. CIMSS/SSEC is managing the procurement and installation of the antenna systems at the two new sites, and will operate the stations remotely. NOAA will establish the reception priorities (Metop and SNPP will be at the highest priority) and

Quantifying the Impact of Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbances on Forest Carbon Pools and Fluxes in the Western US using the NCAR Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edburg, S. L.; Hicke, J. A.; Lawrence, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2009-12-01

Forest disturbances, such as fire, insects, and land-use change, significantly alter carbon budgets by changing carbon pools and fluxes. The mountain pine beetle (MPB) kills millions of hectares of trees in the western US, similar to the area killed by fire. Mountain pine beetles kill host trees by consuming the inner bark tissue, and require host tree death for reproduction. Despite being a significant disturbance to forested ecosystems, insects such as MPB are typically not represented in biogeochemical models, thus little is known about their impact on the carbon cycle. We investigate the role of past MPB outbreaks on carbon cycling in the western US using the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon and Nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN). CLM-CN serves as the land model to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), providing exchanges of energy, momentum, water, carbon, and nitrogen between the land and atmosphere. We run CLM-CN over the western US extending to eastern Colorado with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a half hour time step. The model is first spun-up with repeated NCEP forcing (1948-1972) until carbon stocks and fluxes reach equilibrium (~ 3000 years), and then run from 1850 to 2004 with NCEP forcing and a dynamic plant functional type (PFT) database. Carbon stocks from this simulation are compared with stocks from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program. We prescribe MPB mortality area, once per year, in CLM-CN using USFS Aerial Detection Surveys (ADS) from the last few decades. We simulate carbon impacts of tree mortality by MPB within a model grid cell by moving carbon from live vegetative pools (leaf, stem, and roots) to dead pools (woody debris, litter, and dead roots). We compare carbon pools and fluxes for two simulations, one without MPB outbreaks and one with MPB outbreaks.

Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.

2013-12-01

A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.

Gingival Fibroblasts as Autologous Feeders for Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells.

PubMed

Yu, G; Okawa, H; Okita, K; Kamano, Y; Wang, F; Saeki, M; Yatani, H; Egusa, H

2016-01-01

Human gingival fibroblasts (hGFs) present an attractive source of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), which are expected to be a powerful tool for regenerative dentistry. However, problems to be addressed prior to clinical application include the use of animal-derived feeder cells for cultures. The aim of this study was to establish an autologous hGF-derived iPSC (hGF-iPSC) culture system by evaluating the feeder ability of hGFs. In both serum-containing and serum-free media, hGFs showed higher proliferation than human dermal fibroblasts (hDFs). Three hGF strains were isolated under serum-free conditions, although 2 showed impaired proliferation. When hGF-iPSCs were transferred onto mitomycin C-inactivated hGFs, hDFs, or mouse-derived SNL feeders, hGF and SNL feeders were clearly hGF-iPSC supportive for more than 50 passages, whereas hDF feeders were only able to maintain undifferentiated hGF-iPSC growth for a few passages. After 20 passages on hGF feeders, embryonic stem cell marker expression and CpG methylation at the NANOG and OCT3/4 promoters were similar for hGF-iPSCs cultured on hGF and SNL feeder cells. Long-term cultures of hGF-iPSCs on hGF feeders sustained their normal karyotype and pluripotency. On hGF feeders, hGF-iPSC colonies were surrounded by many colony-derived fibroblast-like cells, and the size of intact colonies at 7 d after passage was significantly larger than that on SNL feeders. Allogeneic hGF strains also maintained hGF-iPSCs for 10 passages. Compared with hDFs, hGFs showed a higher production of laminin-332, laminin α5 chain, and insulin-like growth factor-II, which have been reported to sustain the long-term self-renewal of pluripotent stem cells. These results suggest that hGFs possess an excellent feeder capability and thus can be used as alternatives to conventional mouse-derived SNL and hDF feeders. In addition, our findings suggest that hGF feeders are promising candidates for animal component-free ex vivo expansion of

Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

Synthesis, spectroscopic, thermogravimetric and antimicrobial studies of mixed ligands complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, Walaa H.; Mahmoud, Nessma F.; Mohamed, Gehad G.; El-Sonbati, Adel Z.; El-Bindary, Ashraf A.

2015-09-01

An interesting series of mixed ligand complexes have been synthesized by the reaction of metal chloride with guaifenesin (GFS) in the presence of 2-aminoacetic acid (HGly) (1:1:1 molar ratio). The elemental analysis, magnetic moments, molar conductance, spectral (UV-Vis, IR, 1H NMR and ESR) and thermal studies were used to characterize the isolated complexes. The molecular structure of GFS is optimized theoretically and the quantum chemical parameters are calculated. The IR showed that the ligand (GFS) acts as monobasic tridentate through the hydroxyl, phenoxy etheric and methoxy oxygen atoms and co-ligand (HGly) as monobasic bidentate through the deprotonated carboxylate oxygen atom and nitrogen atom of amino group. The molar conductivities showed that all the complexes are non-electrolytes except Cr(III) complex is electrolyte. Electronic and magnetic data proposed the octahedral structure for all complexes under investigation. ESR spectrum for Cu(II) revealed data which confirm the proposed structure. Antibacterial screening of the compounds were carried out in vitro on gram positive (Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus), gram negative (Escherichia coli and Neisseria gonorrhoeae) bacteria and for in vitro antifungal activity against Candida albicans organism. However, some complexes showed more chemotherapeutic efficiency than the parent GFS drug. The complexes were also screened for their in vitro anticancer activity against the breast cell line (MFC7) and the results obtained showed that they exhibit a considerable anticancer activity.

Polymer-Enriched 3D Graphene Foams for Biomedical Applications.

PubMed

Wang, Jun Kit; Xiong, Gordon Minru; Zhu, Minmin; Özyilmaz, Barbaros; Castro Neto, Antonio Helio; Tan, Nguan Soon; Choong, Cleo

2015-04-22

Graphene foams (GFs) are versatile nanoplatforms for biomedical applications because of their excellent physical, chemical, and mechanical properties. However, the brittleness and inflexibility of pristine GF (pGF) are some of the important factors restricting their widespread application. Here, a chemical-vapor-deposition-assisted method was used to synthesize 3D GFs, which were subsequently spin-coated with polymer to produce polymer-enriched 3D GFs with high conductivity and flexibility. Compared to pGF, both poly(vinylidene fluoride)-enriched GF (PVDF/GF) and polycaprolactone-enriched GF (PCL/GF) scaffolds showed improved flexibility and handleability. Despite the presence of the polymers, the polymer-enriched 3D GF scaffolds retained high levels of electrical conductivity because of the presence of microcracks that allowed for the flow of electrons through the material. In addition, polymer enrichment of GF led to an enhancement in the formation of calcium phosphate (Ca-P) compounds when the scaffolds were exposed to simulated body fluid. Between the two polymers tested, PCL enrichment of GF resulted in a higher in vitro mineralization nucleation rate because the oxygen-containing functional group of PCL had a higher affinity for Ca-P deposition and formation compared to the polar carbon-fluorine (C-F) bond in PVDF. Taken together, our current findings are a stepping stone toward future applications of polymer-enriched 3D GFs in the treatment of bone defects as well as other biomedical applications.

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas

Modeling biophysical/biogeochemical/ecological/ocean/atmosphere two-way interactions using NCEP CFS/SSiB5/TRIFFID/DAYCENT: challenge and promising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Cox, P. M.; De Sales, F.; Lee, J.; Marx, L.; Hartman, M. D.; Yang, R.; Parton, W. J.; Qiu, B.; Ek, M. B.

2016-12-01

Evaluations of several dynamic vegetation models' (DVM) performances in the offline experiments and in the CMIP5 simulations suggest that most of the DVMs substantially overestimate leaf area index (LAI) and length of the growing season, which contribute to overestimation in their coupled models' precipitation. These results suggest important deficiencies in today's DVMs but also show the importance of proper ecological processes in the Earth System Modeling. We have developed a water-carbon-energy balance-based ecosystem model (SSiB4/TRIFFID) and verified it with field and satellite measurement at seasonal to decadal and longer scales. In the global offline tests, the model was integrated from 1950 to 2010 driven by observed meteorological forcing. The simulated trend and decadal variabilities in surface ecosystem conditions (e.g., Plant functional types, LAI, GPP), and surface water and energy balances are analyzed; further experiments and analyses are carried to isolate the contribution due to elevated atmospheric carbon concentration, global warming, soil moisture, and climate variability. How nitrogen processes simulated by the DayCent model Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, which has consistently shown improvements in simulated atmospheric & ocean conditions compared with those runs with specified vegetation conditions. In an experiment, two parametrizations that calculate the mean water potential in soil layers, which affect transpiration and plants' mortality, are tested. It shows that these two methods have substantial impact on global decadal variability of precipitation and surface temperature, with even opposite signs over some regions in the worlds. These results show the uncertainty in DVM modeling with significant implication for the future prediction. It is imperative to evaluate DVMs with comprehensive observational data.

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) for Alaska/Hawaii. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

: Daily sfc max or avg 2D fields Quick verification O3/PM2.5 Meteor Year: 2012 2013 2014 2015 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Day: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Zoledronic acid suppresses transforming growth factor-β-induced fibrogenesis by human gingival fibroblasts.

PubMed

Komatsu, Yuko; Ibi, Miho; Chosa, Naoyuki; Kyakumoto, Seiko; Kamo, Masaharu; Shibata, Toshiyuki; Sugiyama, Yoshiki; Ishisaki, Akira

2016-07-01

Bisphosphonates (BPs) are analogues of pyrophosphate that are known to prevent bone resorption by inhibiting osteoclast activity. Nitrogen-containing BPs, such as zoledronic acid (ZA), are widely used in the treatment of osteoporosis and bone metastasis. However, despite having benefits, ZA has been reported to induce BP-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ) in cancer patients. The molecular pathological mechanisms responsible for the development of BRONJ, including necrotic bone exposure after tooth extraction, remain to be elucidated. In this study, we examined the effects of ZA on the transforming growth factor-β (TGF‑β)-induced myofibroblast (MF) differentiation of human gingival fibroblasts (hGFs) and the migratory activity of hGFs, which are important for wound closure by fibrous tissue formation. The ZA maximum concentration in serum (Cmax) was found to be approximately 1.47 µM, which clinically, is found after the intravenous administration of 4 mg ZA, and ZA at this dose is considered appropriate for the treatment of cancer bone metastasis or bone diseases, such as Erdheim-Chester disease. At Cmax, ZA significantly suppressed i) the TGF‑β-induced promotion of cell viability, ii) the TGF‑β-induced expression of MF markers such as α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) and type I collagen, iii) the TGF‑β-induced migratory activity of hGFs and iv) the expression level of TGF‑β type I receptor on the surfaces of hGFs, as well as the TGF‑β-induced phosphorylation of Smad2/3. Thus, ZA suppresses TGF‑β-induced fibrous tissue formation by hGFs, possibly through the inhibition of Smad‑dependent signal transduction. Our findings partly elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying BRONJ and may prove to be beneficial to the identification of drug targets for the treatment of this symptom at the molecular level.

2013 ACC/AHA Cholesterol Guideline Versus 2004 NCEP ATP III Guideline in the Prediction of Coronary Artery Calcification Progression in a Korean Population.

PubMed

Cho, Yun Kyung; Jung, Chang Hee; Kang, Yu Mi; Hwang, Jenie Yoonoo; Kim, Eun Hee; Yang, Dong Hyun; Kang, Joon-Won; Park, Joong-Yeol; Kim, Hong-Kyu; Lee, Woo Je

2016-08-19

Since the release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines, significant controversy has surrounded the applicability of the new cholesterol guidelines and the Pooled Cohort Equations. In this present study, we investigated whether eligibility for statin therapy determined by the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines on the management of blood cholesterol is better aligned with the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) detected by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) than the previously recommended 2004 National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. We enrolled 1246 asymptomatic participants who underwent repeated CAC score measurement during routine health examinations. The CAC score progression was defined as either incident CAC in a population free of CAC at baseline or increase ≥2.5 units between the baseline and final square root of CAC scores participants who had detectable CAC at baseline examination. Application of the ACC/AHA guidelines to the study population increased the proportion of statin-eligible subjects from 20.5% (according to ATP III) to 54.7%. Statin-eligible subjects, as defined by ACC/AHA guidelines, showed a higher odds ratio for CAC score progression than those considered statin eligible according to ATP III guidelines (2.73 [95% CI, 2.07-3.61] vs 2.00 [95% CI, 1.49-2.68]). Compared with the ATP III guidelines, the new ACC/AHA guidelines result in better discrimination of subjects with cardiovascular risk detected by CAC score progression in an Asian population. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Comprehensive Prediction of Large-height Swell-like Waves in East Coast of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, S. J.; Lee, C.; Ahn, S. J.; Kim, H. K.

2014-12-01

There have been growing interests in the large-height swell-like wave (LSW) in the east coast of Korea because such big waves have caused human victims as well as damages to facilities such as breakwaters in the coast. The LSW was found to be generated due to an atmospherically great valley in the north area of the East Sea and then propagate long distance to the east coast of Korea in prominently southwest direction (Oh et al., 2010).In this study, we will perform two methods, real-time data based and numerical-model based predictions in order to predict the LSW in the east coast of Korea. First, the real-time data based prediction method uses information which is collected by the directional wave gauge installed near Sokcho. Using the wave model SWAN (Booij et al., 1999) and the wave ray method (Munk and Arthur, 1952), we will estimate wave data in open sea from the real-time data and predict the travel time of LSW from the measurement site (near Sokcho) to several target points in the east coast of Korea. Second, the numerical-model based method uses three different numerical models; WW3 in deep water, SWAN in shallow water, and CADMAS-SURF for wave run-up (CDIT). The surface winds from the 72 hours prediction system of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) GFS (Global Forecast System) will be inputted in finer grids after interpolating these in certain domains of WW3 and SWAN models. The significant wave heights and peak wave directions predicted by the two methods will be compared to the measured data of LSW at several target points near the coasts. Further, the prediction method will be improved using more measurement sites which will be installed in the future. ReferencesBooij, N., Ris, R.C., and Holthuijsen, L.H. (1999). A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 1. Model description and validation. J. of Geophysical Research, 103(C4), 7649-7666.Munk, W.H. and Arthur, R.S. (1952). Gravity Waves. 13. Wave Intensity along a Refracted Ray

ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

Metal-Organic Frameworks as Highly Active Electrocatalysts for High-Energy Density, Aqueous Zinc-Polyiodide Redox Flow Batteries.

PubMed

Li, Bin; Liu, Jian; Nie, Zimin; Wang, Wei; Reed, David; Liu, Jun; McGrail, Pete; Sprenkle, Vincent

2016-07-13

The new aqueous zinc-polyiodide redox flow battery (RFB) system with highly soluble active materials as well as ambipolar and bifunctional designs demonstrated significantly enhanced energy density, which shows great potential to reduce RFB cost. However, the poor kinetic reversibility and electrochemical activity of the redox reaction of I3(-)/I(-) couples on graphite felts (GFs) electrode can result in low energy efficiency. Two nanoporous metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), MIL-125-NH2 and UiO-66-CH3, that have high surface areas when introduced to GF surfaces accelerated the I3(-)/I(-) redox reaction. The flow cell with MOF-modified GFs serving as a positive electrode showed higher energy efficiency than the pristine GFs; increases of about 6.4% and 2.7% occurred at the current density of 30 mA/cm(2) for MIL-125-NH2 and UiO-66-CH3, respectively. Moreover, UiO-66-CH3 is more promising due to its excellent chemical stability in the weakly acidic electrolyte. This letter highlights a way for MOFs to be used in the field of RFBs.

Neocortex expansion is linked to size variations in gene families with chemotaxis, cell-cell signalling and immune response functions in mammals.

PubMed

Castillo-Morales, Atahualpa; Monzón-Sandoval, Jimena; de Sousa, Alexandra A; Urrutia, Araxi O; Gutierrez, Humberto

2016-10-01

Increased brain size is thought to have played an important role in the evolution of mammals and is a highly variable trait across lineages. Variations in brain size are closely linked to corresponding variations in the size of the neocortex, a distinct mammalian evolutionary innovation. The genomic features that explain and/or accompany variations in the relative size of the neocortex remain unknown. By comparing the genomes of 28 mammalian species, we show that neocortical expansion relative to the rest of the brain is associated with variations in gene family size (GFS) of gene families that are significantly enriched in biological functions associated with chemotaxis, cell-cell signalling and immune response. Importantly, we find that previously reported GFS variations associated with increased brain size are largely accounted for by the stronger link between neocortex expansion and variations in the size of gene families. Moreover, genes within these families are more prominently expressed in the human neocortex during early compared with adult development. These results suggest that changes in GFS underlie morphological adaptations during brain evolution in mammalian lineages. © 2016 The Authors.

Neocortex expansion is linked to size variations in gene families with chemotaxis, cell–cell signalling and immune response functions in mammals

PubMed Central

Castillo-Morales, Atahualpa; Monzón-Sandoval, Jimena; de Sousa, Alexandra A.

2016-01-01

Increased brain size is thought to have played an important role in the evolution of mammals and is a highly variable trait across lineages. Variations in brain size are closely linked to corresponding variations in the size of the neocortex, a distinct mammalian evolutionary innovation. The genomic features that explain and/or accompany variations in the relative size of the neocortex remain unknown. By comparing the genomes of 28 mammalian species, we show that neocortical expansion relative to the rest of the brain is associated with variations in gene family size (GFS) of gene families that are significantly enriched in biological functions associated with chemotaxis, cell–cell signalling and immune response. Importantly, we find that previously reported GFS variations associated with increased brain size are largely accounted for by the stronger link between neocortex expansion and variations in the size of gene families. Moreover, genes within these families are more prominently expressed in the human neocortex during early compared with adult development. These results suggest that changes in GFS underlie morphological adaptations during brain evolution in mammalian lineages. PMID:27707894

Evaluation of the Operational Multi-scale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) for use in Wind Energy Applications in the Great Basin of Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Kristien C.

characterizing areas of complex terrain. Model sensitivity to horizontal grid resolution, initial conditions, and time of initialization were tested. OMEGA was run over three different horizontal grid resolutions with minimum horizontal edge lengths of: 18 km, 6 km, and 2 km. For each resolution, the model was initialized using both the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to determine model sensitivity to initial conditions. For both the NARR and GFS initializations, the model was started at both 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC to determine the effect of start time and stability regime on the performance of the model. An additional intensive study into the model's performance was also conducted by a detailed evaluation of model results during two separate 24-hour periods, the first a period where the model performed well and the second a period where the model performed poorly, to determine which atmospheric factors most affect the predictive ability of the OMEGA model. The statistical results were then compared with the results from the MM5 and WRF simulations to determine the most appropriate model for wind energy potential studies in complex terrain.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is

SP-100 GES/NAT radiation shielding systems design and development testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Disney, R.K.; Kulikowski, H.D.; McGinnis, C.A.

1991-01-10

Advanced Energy Systems (AES) of Westinghouse Electric Corporation is under subcontract to the General Electric Company to supply nuclear radiation shielding components for the SP-100 Ground Engineering System (GES) Nuclear Assembly Test to be conducted at Westinghouse Hanford Company at Richland, Washington. The radiation shielding components are integral to the Nuclear Assembly Test (NAT) assembly and include prototypic and non-prototypic radiation shielding components which provide prototypic test conditions for the SP-100 reactor subsystem and reactor control subsystem components during the GES/NAT operations. W-AES is designing three radiation shield components for the NAT assembly; a prototypic Generic Flight System (GFS) shield,more » the Lower Internal Facility Shield (LIFS), and the Upper Internal Facility Shield (UIFS). This paper describes the design approach and development testing to support the design, fabrication, and assembly of these three shield components for use within the vacuum vessel of the GES/NAT. The GES/NAT shields must be designed to operate in a high vacuum which simulates space operations. The GFS shield and LIFS must provide prototypic radiation/thermal environments and mechanical interfaces for reactor system components. The NAT shields, in combination with the test facility shielding, must provide adequate radiation attenuation for overall test operations. Special design considerations account for the ground test facility effects on the prototypic GFS shield. Validation of the GFS shield design and performance will be based on detailed Monte Carlo analyses and developmental testing of design features. Full scale prototype testing of the shield subsystems is not planned.« less

SP-100 GES/NAT radiation shielding systems design and development testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disney, Richard K.; Kulikowski, Henry D.; McGinnis, Cynthia A.; Reese, James C.; Thomas, Kevin; Wiltshire, Frank

1991-01-01

Advanced Energy Systems (AES) of Westinghouse Electric Corporation is under subcontract to the General Electric Company to supply nuclear radiation shielding components for the SP-100 Ground Engineering System (GES) Nuclear Assembly Test to be conducted at Westinghouse Hanford Company at Richland, Washington. The radiation shielding components are integral to the Nuclear Assembly Test (NAT) assembly and include prototypic and non-prototypic radiation shielding components which provide prototypic test conditions for the SP-100 reactor subsystem and reactor control subsystem components during the GES/NAT operations. W-AES is designing three radiation shield components for the NAT assembly; a prototypic Generic Flight System (GFS) shield, the Lower Internal Facility Shield (LIFS), and the Upper Internal Facility Shield (UIFS). This paper describes the design approach and development testing to support the design, fabrication, and assembly of these three shield components for use within the vacuum vessel of the GES/NAT. The GES/NAT shields must be designed to operate in a high vacuum which simulates space operations. The GFS shield and LIFS must provide prototypic radiation/thermal environments and mechanical interfaces for reactor system components. The NAT shields, in combination with the test facility shielding, must provide adequate radiation attenuation for overall test operations. Special design considerations account for the ground test facility effects on the prototypic GFS shield. Validation of the GFS shield design and performance will be based on detailed Monte Carlo analyses and developmental testing of design features. Full scale prototype testing of the shield subsystems is not planned.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Does the Danube exist? Versions of reality given by various regional climate models and climatological data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Danihlik, Robert; Kriegerova, Ida; Speranza, Antonio

2007-07-01

We present an auditing (intercomparison and verification) of several regional climate models (RCMs) nested into the same run of the same atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) regarding their representation of the statistical properties of the hydrological balance of the Danube river basin for 1961-1990. We also consider the data sets produced by the driving AGCM, by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalyses. The hydrological balance is computed by integrating the precipitation and evaporation fields over the area of interest. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta, even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. Since the considered approach relies on the mass conservation principle and bypasses the details of the air-land interface modeling, we propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Their reliability on smaller river basins may be even more problematic. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. The driving AGCM greatly overperforms the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF 40-year (ERA-40) reanalyses, which result to be largely inadequate for representing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post streamline the interaction of analysis, forecast, and post-processing systems within NCEP. The NEMS Force, and will eventually provide support to the community through the Developmental Test Center (DTC

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Dust Storm Monitoring Using Satellite Observatory and Numerical Modeling Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, Farahnaz

In recent years, the frequency of dust pollution events in the Iran Southwest are increased which caused huge damage and imposed a negative impacts on air quality, airport traffic and people daily life in local areas. Dust storms in this area usually start with the formation of a low-pressure center over the Arabian Peninsula. The main objectives of this study is to asses and monitor the movement of aerosols and pollutions from origin source to local areas using satellite imagery and numerical modeling analysis. Observational analyses from NCEP such as synoptic data (Uwind,Vwind,Vorticity and Divergence Fields), upper air radiosonde, measured visibility distributions, land cover data are also used in model comparisons to show differences in occurrence of dust events. The evolution and dynamics of this phenomena are studied on the based a method to modify the initial state of NWP output using discrepancies between dynamic fields and WV imagery in a grid. Results show that satellite images offers a means to control the behavior of numeric models and also the model using land cover data improving the wind-blown dust modeling.

Whether the decadal shift of South Asia High intensity around the late 1970s exists or not

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis; Zhou, Dingwen

2015-05-01

This study compares the decadal means of the seasonal (June-July-August (JJA)) mean geopotential heights available from the NCEP1 and ERA-40 reanalysis data in the Northern Hemisphere. The interdecadal changes in the South Asia High (SAH) intensity derived from the reanalysis data are also compared with ground-based radiosonde observations and atmospheric model outputs. The JJA mean geopotential heights in the 1980s are distinctly larger than the 1970s in NCEP1 over most of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere, while no obvious difference is observed in ERA-40. The interannual variation of the SAH strength is very close in the two reanalysis data, so that it is appropriate to utilize the reanalysis data to study the interannual variation of SAH strength after removing the interdecadal trend. However, the discrepancy in SAH intensity between NCEP1 and ERA-40 mainly exists on the interdecadal time scale. The SAH intensity in the NCEP1 was close to that in the ERA-40 before the late 1970s but became remarkably stronger after the late 1970s, leading to a much larger decadal strengthening during the period 1970-1990. Based on the six radiosonde observation stations in the area of the SAH, the results indicate that the decadal reinforcing in the SAH strength occurs around the mid-1980s. Thus, NCEP1 may overestimate the decadal shift in the SAH intensity around the late 1970s, while ERA-40 may underestimate it. Much attention needs to be paid when we use the reanalysis data to study the decadal variability of the SAH intensity.

Novel drug delivery systems for releasing growth factors to the CNS: focus on Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases.

PubMed

Herran, E; Igartua, M; Pedraz, J L; Hernandez, R M

2014-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD) represent the most common neurodegenerative disorders and affect more than 35 million people. Due to the limited effectiveness of available treatments in halting the neurodegenerative process, new therapies, such therapies based on growth factors (GFs), have been investigated. Nevertheless, the efficacies of these new treatments depend not only on the application of neurotrophins but also on the approaches used to deliver these proteins such that they can reach the brain. This review summarises the most widely used drug delivery systems (DDSs) for releasing GFs as possible treatments for AD and PD.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar Numerical Forecast Systems NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance Page [< Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

Evaluating the performance of real-time streamflow forecasting using multi-satellite precipitation products in the Upper Zambezi, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.

2016-12-01

In under-instrumented basins around the world, accurate and timely forecasts of river streamflows have the potential of assisting water and natural resource managers in their management decisions. The Upper Zambezi river basin is the largest basin in southern Africa and its water resources are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in eight riparian countries. We present a real-time streamflow forecast for the basin using a multi-model-multi-satellite approach that allows accounting for model and input uncertainties. Three distributed hydrologic models with different levels of complexity: VIC, HYMOD_DS, and HBV_DS are setup at a daily time step and a 0.25 degree spatial resolution for the basin. The hydrologic models are calibrated against daily observed streamflows at the Katima-Mulilo station using a Genetic Algorithm. Three real-time satellite products: Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B42RT) are bias-corrected with daily CHIRPS estimates. Uncertainty bounds for predicted flows are estimated with the Inverse Variance Weighting method. Because concentration times in the basin range from a few days to more than a week, we include the use of precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) to predict daily streamflows in the basin with a 10-days lead time. The skill of GFS-predicted streamflows is evaluated and the usefulness of the forecasts for short term water allocations is presented.

PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF OZONE PREDICTIONS BY THE ETA-COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM DURING THE 2002 NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-CMAQ model suite) has been developed by linking the NCEP Eta model to the U.S. EPA CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting O₃ over the northeastern U.S d...

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chen, Pang-Cheng; Elsberry, Russell L.

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during 1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area. The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts. Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.

THE EMISSION PROCESSING SYSTEM FOR THE ETA/CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of th...

EMISSIONS PROCESSING FOR THE ETA/ CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of the...

Evaluation of streamflow forecast for the National Water Model of U.S. National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Dugger, A. L.; Gochis, D.; Karsten, L. R.; Zhang, Y.; Cosgrove, B.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM), an implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system, is an operational hydrologic forecasting model for the contiguous United States. The model forecasts distributed hydrologic states and fluxes, including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water. In particular, the NWM provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches for three forecast ranges: short (15 hr), medium (10 days), and long (30 days). In this study, we verify short and medium range streamflow forecasts in the context of the verification of their respective quantitative precipitation forecasts/forcing (QPF), the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). The streamflow evaluation is performed for summer of 2016 at more than 6,000 USGS gauges. Both individual forecasts and forecast lead times are examined. Selected case studies of extreme events aim to provide insight into the quality of the NWM streamflow forecasts. A goal of this comparison is to address how much streamflow bias originates from precipitation forcing bias. To this end, precipitation verification is performed over the contributing areas above (and between assimilated) USGS gauge locations. Precipitation verification is based on the aggregated, blended StageIV/StageII data as the "reference truth". We summarize the skill of the streamflow forecasts, their skill relative to the QPF, and make recommendations for improving NWM forecast skill.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Atmospheric gradients from GNSS, VLBI, and DORIS analyses and from Numerical Weather Models during CONT14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinkelmann, Robert; Dick, Galina; Nilsson, Tobias; Soja, Benedikt; Wickert, Jens; Zus, Florian; Schuh, Harald

2015-04-01

Observations from space-geodetic techniques are nowadays increasingly used to derive atmospheric information for various commercial and scientific applications. A prominent example is the operational use of GNSS data to improve global and regional weather forecasts, which was started in 2006. Atmosphere gradients describe the azimuthal asymmetry of zenith delays. Estimates of geodetic and other parameters significantly improve when atmosphere gradients are determined in addition. Here we assess the capability of several space geodetic techniques (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) to determine atmosphere gradients of refractivity. For this purpose we implement and compare various strategies for gradient estimation, such as different values for the temporal resolution and the corresponding parameter constraints. Applying least squares estimation the gradients are usually deterministically modelled as constants or piece-wise linear functions. In our study we compare this approach with a stochastic approach modelling atmosphere gradients as random walk processes and applying a Kalman Filter for parameter estimation. The gradients, derived from space geodetic techniques are verified by comparison with those derived from Numerical Weather Models (NWM). These model data were generated using raytracing calculations based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses with different spatial resolutions. The investigation of the differences between the ECMWF and NCEP gradients hereby in addition allow for an empirical assessment of the quality of model gradients and how suitable the NWM data are for verification. CONT14 (2014-05-06 until 2014-05-20) is the youngest two week long continuous VLBI campaign carried out by IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry). It presents the state-of-the-art VLBI performance in terms of number of stations and number of observations and presents thus an

The structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun (2002)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Leiming; Duan, Yihong; Zhu, Yongti

2004-12-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysis of TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data, some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.

Tumor Necrosis Factor-α and Interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and IL-8 Impair In Vitro Migration and Induce Apoptosis of Gingival Fibroblasts and Epithelial Cells, Delaying Wound Healing.

PubMed

Basso, Fernanda G; Pansani, Taisa N; Turrioni, Ana Paula S; Soares, Diana G; de Souza Costa, Carlos Alberto; Hebling, Josimeri

2016-08-01

Multiple factors affect oral mucosal healing, such as the persistence of an inflammatory reaction. The present study evaluates effects of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and IL-8 on epithelial cells (ECs) and human gingival fibroblasts (GFs) in vitro. GFs and ECs were seeded in 96-well plates (1 × 10(4) cells/well) in plain culture medium (Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium [DMEM]) containing 1% antibiotic/antimycotic solution and 10% fetal bovine serum, and incubated for 24 hours. Both cell lines were exposed for 24 hours to the following cytokines: 1) TNF-α (100 ng/mL); 2) IL-1β (1 ng/mL); 3) IL-6 (10 ng/mL); and 4) IL-8 (10 ng/mL). All cytokines were diluted in serum-free DMEM. Control cultures were exposed only to serum-free DMEM. Effects of exposure to inflammatory cytokines were determined by means of: 1) apoptosis (anexin V); 2) cell migration (wound healing assay); 3) inflammatory cytokine synthesis (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests (α = 0.05). Increased apoptosis rates were noted when cells were exposed to inflammatory cytokines, except ECs exposed to IL-1β. Cell migration was negatively affected by all inflammatory cytokines for both cell lines. ECs and GFs exposed to IL-6 and IL-8 significantly increased synthesis of TNF-α and IL-1β. Demonstrated results indicate negative effects of tested inflammatory cytokines on ECs and GFs, inducing apoptosis and impairing cell migration. These results can justify delayed oral mucosa healing in the presence of inflammatory reaction.

Heparin-Poloxamer Thermosensitive Hydrogel Loaded with bFGF and NGF Enhances Peripheral Nerve Regeneration in Diabetic Rats.

PubMed

Li, Rui; Li, Yiyang; Wu, Yanqing; Zhao, Yingzheng; Chen, Huanwen; Yuan, Yuan; Xu, Ke; Zhang, Hongyu; Lu, Yingfeng; Wang, Jian; Li, Xiaokun; Jia, Xiaofeng; Xiao, Jian

2018-06-01

Peripheral nerve injury (PNI) is a major burden to society with limited therapeutic options, and novel biomaterials have great potential for shifting the current paradigm of treatment. With a rising prevalence of chronic illnesses such as diabetes mellitus (DM), treatment of PNI is further complicated, and only few studies have proposed therapies suitable for peripheral nerve regeneration in DM. To provide a supportive environment to restore structure and/or function of nerves in DM, we developed a novel thermo-sensitive heparin-poloxamer (HP) hydrogel co-delivered with basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) and nerve growth factor (NGF) in diabetic rats with sciatic nerve crush injury. The delivery vehicle not only had a good affinity for large amounts of growth factors (GFs), but also controlled their release in a steady fashion, preventing degradation in vitro. In vivo, compared with HP hydrogel alone or direct GFs administration, GFs-HP hydrogel treatment is more effective at facilitating Schwann cell (SC) proliferation, leading to an increased expression of nerve associated structural proteins, enhanced axonal regeneration and remyelination, and improved recovery of motor function (all p < 0.05). Our mechanistic investigation also revealed that these neuroprotective and neuroregenerative effects of the GFs-HP hydrogel may be associated with activations of phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase and protein kinase B (PI3K/Akt), janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (JAK/STAT3), and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (MAPK/ERK) signaling pathways. Our work provides a promising therapy option for peripheral nerve regeneration in patients with DM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing causes of cloud parameterization deficiencies using ARM measurements over SGP site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, W.; Liu, Y.; Betts, A. K.

2010-03-15

Decade-long continuous surface-based measurements at Great Southern Plains (SGP) collected by the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility are first used to evaluate the three major reanalyses (i.e., ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II) to identify model biases in simulating surface shortwave cloud forcing and total cloud fraction. The results show large systematic lower biases in the modeled surface shortwave cloud forcing and cloud fraction from all the three reanalysis datasets. Then we focus on diagnosing the causes of these model biases using the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) products (e.g., verticalmore » distribution of cloud fraction, cloud-base and cloud-top heights, and cloud optical depth) and meteorological measurements (temperature, humidity and stability). Efforts are made to couple cloud properties with boundary processes in the diagnosis.« less

Nanoparticle-mediated growth factor delivery systems: A new way to treat Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Lauzon, Marc-Antoine; Daviau, Alex; Marcos, Bernard; Faucheux, Nathalie

2015-05-28

The number of people diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD) is increasing steadily as the world population ages, thus creating a huge socio-economic burden. Current treatments have only transient effects and concentrate on a single aspect of AD. There is much evidence suggesting that growth factors (GFs) have a great therapeutic potential and can play on all AD hallmarks. Because GFs are prone to denaturation and clearance, a delivery system is required to ensure protection and a sustainable delivery. This review provides information about the latest advances in the development of GF delivery systems (GFDS) targeting the brain in terms of in vitro and in vivo effects in the context of AD and discusses new strategies designed to increase the availability and the specificity of GFs to the brain. This paper also discusses, on a mechanistic level, the different delivery hurdles encountered by the carrier or the GF itself from its injection site up to the brain tissue. The major mass transport phenomena influencing the delivery systems targeting the brain are addressed and insights are given about how mechanistic mathematical frameworks can be developed to use and optimize them. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Delivery of Alginate Scaffold Releasing Two Trophic Factors for Spinal Cord Injury Repair

PubMed Central

Grulova, I.; Slovinska, L.; Blaško, J.; Devaux, S.; Wisztorski, M.; Salzet, M.; Fournier, I.; Kryukov, O.; Cohen, S.; Cizkova, D.

2015-01-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) has been implicated in neural cell loss and consequently functional motor and sensory impairment. In this study, we propose an alginate -based neurobridge enriched with/without trophic growth factors (GFs) that can be utilized as a therapeutic approach for spinal cord repair. The bioavailability of key GFs, such as Epidermal Growth factor (EGF) and basic Fibroblast Growth Factor (bFGF) released from injected alginate biomaterial to the central lesion site significantly enhanced the sparing of spinal cord tissue and increased the number of surviving neurons (choline acetyltransferase positive motoneurons) and sensory fibres. In addition, we document enhanced outgrowth of corticospinal tract axons and presence of blood vessels at the central lesion. Tissue proteomics was performed at 3, 7 and 10 days after SCI in rats indicated the presence of anti-inflammatory factors in segments above the central lesion site, whereas in segments below, neurite outgrowth factors, inflammatory cytokines and chondroitin sulfate proteoglycan of the lectican protein family were overexpressed. Collectively, based on our data, we confirm that functional recovery was significantly improved in SCI groups receiving alginate scaffold with affinity-bound growth factors (ALG +GFs), compared to SCI animals without biomaterial treatment. PMID:26348665

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Tropospheric dry layers in the tropical western Pacific: comparisons of GPS radio occultation with multiple data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieckh, Therese; Anthes, Richard; Randel, William; Ho, Shu-Peng; Foelsche, Ulrich

2017-03-01

We use GPS radio occultation (RO) data to investigate the structure and temporal behavior of extremely dry, high-ozone tropospheric air in the tropical western Pacific during the 6-week period of the CONTRAST (CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics) experiment (January and February 2014). Our analyses are aimed at testing whether the RO method is capable of detecting these extremely dry layers and evaluating comparisons with in situ measurements, satellite observations, and model analyses. We use multiple data sources as comparisons, including CONTRAST research aircraft profiles, radiosonde profiles, AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) satellite retrievals, and profiles extracted from the ERA (ERA-Interim reanalysis) and the GFS (US National Weather Service Global Forecast System) analyses, as well as MTSAT-2 satellite images. The independent and complementary radiosonde, aircraft, and RO data provide high vertical resolution observations of the dry layers. However, they all have limitations. The coverage of the radiosonde data is limited by having only a single station in this oceanic region; the aircraft data are limited in their temporal and spatial coverage; and the RO data are limited in their number and horizontal resolution over this period. However, nearby observations from the three types of data are highly consistent with each other and with the lower-vertical-resolution AIRS profiles. They are also consistent with the ERA and GFS data. We show that the RO data, used here for the first time to study this phenomenon, contribute significant information on the water vapor content and are capable of detecting layers in the tropics and subtropics with extremely low humidity (less than 10 %), independent of the retrieval used to extract moisture information. Our results also verify the quality of the ERA and GFS data sets, giving confidence to the reanalyses and their use in diagnosing the full four

Estimating and forecasting the precipitable water vapor from GOES satellite data at high altitude sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marín, Julio C.; Pozo, Diana; Curé, Michel

2015-01-01

In this work, we describe a method to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV) from Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data at high altitude sites. The method was applied at Atacama Pathfinder Experiment (APEX) and Cerro Toco sites, located above 5000 m altitude in the Chajnantor plateau, in the north of Chile. It was validated using GOES-12 satellite data over the range 0-1.2 mm since submillimeter/millimeter astronomical observations are only useful within this PWV range. The PWV estimated from GOES and the Final Analyses (FNL) at APEX for 2007 and 2009 show root mean square error values of 0.23 mm and 0.36 mm over the ranges 0-0.4 mm and 0.4-1.2 mm, respectively. However, absolute relative errors of 51% and 33% were shown over these PWV ranges, respectively. We recommend using high-resolution thermodynamic profiles from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model to estimate the PWV from GOES data since they are available every three hours and at an earlier time than the FNL data. The estimated PWV from GOES/GFS agrees better with the observed PWV at both sites during night time. The largest errors are shown during daytime. Short-term PWV forecasts were implemented at both sites, applying a simple persistence method to the PWV estimated from GOES/GFS. The 12 h and 24 h PWV forecasts evaluated from August to October 2009 indicates that 25% of them show a very good agreement with observations whereas 50% of them show reasonably good agreement with observations. Transmission uncertainties calculated for PWV estimations and forecasts over the studied sites are larger over the range 0-0.4 mm than over the range 0.4-1.2 mm. Thus, the method can be used over the latter interval with more confidence.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Chuang (POST) Fanglin Yang (VSDB) Perry Shafran (VERIFICATION) Ilya Rivin (HYCOM) David Behringer (MOM4 * Functional Equivalence test for MOM4p0 on GAEA - Dave Behringer * NCEP Gaea module - $NETCDF * Use a forum

In vitro analyses of the anti-fibrotic effect of SPARC silencing in human Tenon’s fibroblasts: comparisons with mitomycin C

PubMed Central

Seet, Li-Fong; Su, Roseline; Toh, Li Zhen; Wong, Tina T

2012-01-01

Abstract Failure of glaucoma filtration surgery (GFS) is commonly attributed to scarring at the surgical site. The human Tenon’s fibroblasts (HTFs) are considered the major cell type contributing to the fibrotic response. We previously showed that SPARC (secreted protein, acidic, rich in cysteine) knockout mice had improved surgical success in a murine model of GFS. To understand the mechanisms of SPARC deficiency in delaying subconjunctival fibrosis, we used the gene silencing approach to reduce SPARC expression in HTFs and examined parameters important for wound repair and fibrosis. Mitomycin C-treated HTFs were used for comparison. We demonstrate that SPARC-silenced HTFs showed normal proliferation and negligible cellular necrosis but were impaired in motility and collagen gel contraction. The expression of pro-fibrotic genes including collagen I, MMP-2, MMP-9, MMP-14, IL-8, MCP-1 and TGF-β2 were also reduced. Importantly, TGF-β2 failed to induce significant collagen I and fibronectin expressions in the SPARC-silenced HTFs. Together, these data demonstrate that SPARC knockdown in HTFs modulates fibroblast functions important for wound fibrosis and is therefore a promising strategy in the development of anti-scarring therapeutics. PMID:21801304

Index of /data/nccf/com/gfs/prod

Science.gov Websites

-2018 08:00 - enkf.20180527/ 27-May-2018 06:37 - gdas.20180518/ 21-May-2018 01:00 - gdas.20180519/ 22 -May-2018 01:00 - gdas.20180520/ 23-May-2018 02:00 - gdas.20180521/ 24-May-2018 01:00 - gdas.20180522 / 25-May-2018 02:00 - gdas.20180523/ 26-May-2018 02:00 - gdas.20180524/ 27-May-2018 02:00 - gdas

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Lazarus, Steven M.; Splitt, Michael E.; Crosson, William L.; Lapenta, William M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2008-01-01

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts

Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhijin; Sha, Feng; Liu, Yangang

2016-02-02

This five-year award supports the project “Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements (FASTER)”. The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets for initializing both single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs) using data assimilation. A multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (MS-3DVAR) has been implemented. This MS-3DVAR system is built on top of WRF/GSI. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system is an operational data assimilation system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.more » This MS-3DVAR is further enhanced by the incorporation of a land surface 3DVAR scheme and a comprehensive aerosol 3DVAR scheme. The data assimilation implementation focuses in the ARM SGP region. ARM measurements are assimilated along with other available satellite and radar data. Reanalyses are then generated for a few selected period of time. This comprehensive data assimilation system has also been employed for other ARM-related applications.« less

The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing

The importance of waist circumference in the definition of metabolic syndrome: prospective analyses of mortality in men.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Janssen, Ian; Ross, Robert; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP), revised NCEP (NCEP-R), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) metabolic syndrome criteria for mortality risk, and to examine the effects of waist circumference on mortality within the context of these criteria. The sample included 20,789 white, non-Hispanic men 20-83 years of age from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The main outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over 11.4 years of follow-up. The proportions of men with the metabolic syndrome were 19.7, 27, and 30% at baseline, respectively, according to NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF criteria. A total of 632 deaths (213 CVD) occurred. The relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality were 1.36 (1.14-1.62), 1.31 (1.11-1.54), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for the NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF definitions, respectively. The corresponding RRs for CVD mortality were 1.79 (1.35-2.37), 1.67 (1.27-2.19), and 1.67 (1.27-2.20). Additionally, there was a significant trend for a higher risk of CVD mortality across waist circumference categories (<94, 94-102, and >102 cm) among men with at least two additional metabolic syndrome risk factors (P = 0.01). The prediction of mortality with IDF and NCEP metabolic syndrome criteria was comparable in men. Waist circumference is a valuable component of metabolic syndrome; however, the IDF requirement of an elevated waist circumference warrants caution given that a large proportion of men with normal waist circumference have multiple risk factors and an increased risk of mortality.

A Numerical Simulation (Study) of a Strong West Coast December 2014 Winter Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smelser, I.; Xu, L.; Amerault, C. M.; Baker, N. L.; Satterfield, E.; Chua, B.

2016-12-01

From December 10 through December 13, 2014, a powerful winter storm swept across the western US coastal states bringing widespread power outages, numerous downed trees and power lines, heavy rains, flooding and even a tornado in the Los Angeles basin. This windstorm was the strongest since October 2009, and was similar to classic wind storms such as the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (Read, 2015).The storm started developing over the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii on Nov. 30, and formed an atmospheric river that eventually stretched from Hawaii to the west coast. The storm initially hit the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 9th and then split. The highest precipitation amounts started in British Colombia and moved south along the coast. By the Dec. 11th, the highest precipitation amounts were near San Francisco (CA). The peak wind gust (14.4 ms-1) for Monterey (CA) occurred at 1116Z on Dec. 11th while the heaviest 6-hr precipitation (42.9 mm) occurred between 18Z on Dec. 11th to 00Z on Dec. 12th. By Dec. 12th, the storm was centered over Southern California.This storm was poorly forecast by many operational NWP models even 2-3 days in advance (Mass, 2014). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) showed considerably variability between successive model runs, and significant differences existed between Environment Canada, UK Met Office and ECMWF model forecasts. To study this extreme weather event, we used the Navy global (NAVGEM) and mesoscale (COAMPS®) NWP models, and compared the resulting forecasts to observations, satellite imagery and ECMWF (TIGGE) forecasts. NAVGEM, with Hybrid 4DVar, was run with a resolution of 31 km, and generated the boundary conditions for COAMPS® 4DVar and forecasts, that were run with triple-nested grids of 27, 9, and 3 km. The MesoWest data from the University of Utah were used for forecast verification, and to locate the times of highest precipitation and wind speed for different points along the coast. Both the online API and the python module were

Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Santee, Michelle L.; Naujokat, Barbara; Swinbank, Richard; Gelman, Melvyn E.; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the

Anomalous Heat Budgets in the Interior Pacific Ocean on Seasonal- to -Timescales and Gyre Spacescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage over the Pacific Ocean from 20 degrees S to 60 degrees N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) products over 7 years from 1993-1999. We utilize WOCE reanalysis products from the following sources: diabatic heat storage (DHS) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from the Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We interpolate these products onto a common grid, allowing the seasonal cycle of DHS to be modeled for comparison with that observed. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals and shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, both comparable in magnitude to the residual horizontal heat advection. We find the root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies to be less than 15 W per square meters everywhere except in the Kuroshio extension. Comparable COADS and NCEP products perform better than ECMWF products in the extra-tropics, while the NCEP product performs best in the tropics. Radiative and turbulent air-sea heat flux residuals computed from ship-born measurements perform better than those computed from satellite cloud and wind measurements. Since the RMS differences derive largely from biases in measured wind speed and cloud fraction, least-squares minimization is used to correct the residual Ekman heat advection and air-sea heat flux. Minimization reduces RMS differences less than 5 W per square meters except in the Kuroshio extension, suggesting how winds, clouds, and exchange coefficients in the NCEP, ECMWF, and ESR products can be improved.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post do data transfer from Gaea to Vapor; DTN (Nwave) has set up for all users but wants one user to test numerous cpu intensive scripts? Click here to view more information Open Effects of the problem: NCEP pre

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum

Fine Scale Modeling and Forecasts of Upper Atmospheric Turbulence for Operational Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-30

Weather Center Digital Data Service (ADDS) fhttp://www.aviationweather.gov/adds, http://weather.aero/1 Graphical Turbulence Guidance product, GTG -2.5...analysis GTG - Graphical Turbulence Guidance HRMM - High Resolution Mesoscale/Microscale ICD - Interface Control Document IDE - Integrated Development...site (with GTG 2.5 data) http://www.aviationweather.gov/turbuience • ADDS Experimental site http://weather.aero/ • NCEP FNL data - http

A semi-Lagrangian advection scheme for radioactive tracers in a regional spectral model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E.-C.; Yoshimura, K.

2015-06-01

In this study, the non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian (NDSL) advection scheme is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) to alleviate the Gibbs phenomenon. The Gibbs phenomenon is a problem wherein negative values of positive-definite quantities (e.g., moisture and tracers) are generated by the spectral space transformation in a spectral model system. To solve this problem, the spectral prognostic specific humidity and radioactive tracer advection scheme is replaced by the NDSL advection scheme, which considers advection of tracers in a grid system without spectral space transformations. A regional version of the NDSL is developed in this study and is applied to the RSM. Idealized experiments show that the regional version of the NDSL is successful. The model runs for an actual case study suggest that the NDSL can successfully advect radioactive tracers (iodine-131 and cesium-137) without noise from the Gibbs phenomenon. The NDSL can also remove negative specific humidity values produced in spectral calculations without losing detailed features.

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present. Volume 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, Jean E.; Au, Andrew Y.

2003-01-01

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

Comparison of Mean Climate Trends in the Northern Hemisphere Between N.C.E.P. and Two Atmosphere-Ocean Model Forced Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure, surface temperature, 850, 500 and 200 mb geopotential heights and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared to those obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction observations. A spatial correlation analysis and mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere (NH) because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the observed regional and NH climate trends makes it reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.

2017-12-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

Polar motion excitation analysis due to global continental water redistribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, L.; Schuh, H.

2006-10-01

We present the results obtained when studying the hydrological excitation of the Earth‘s wobble due to global redistribution of continental water storage. This work was performed in two steps. First, we computed the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) time series based on the global hydrological model LaD (Land Dynamics model) for the period 1980 till 2004. Then, we compared the effectiveness of this excitation by analysing the residuals of the geodetic time series after removing atmospheric and oceanic contributions with the respective hydrological ones. The emphasis was put on low frequency variations. We also present a comparison of HAM time series from LaD with respect to that one from a global model based on the assimilated soil moisture and snow accumulation data from NCEP/NCAR (The National Center for Environmental Prediction/The National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis. Finally, we evaluate the performance of LaD model in closing the polar motion budget at seasonal periods in comparison with the NCEP and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) models.

Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassignet, E.

A broad partnership of institutions is collaborating in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and Atlantic ocean prediction systems using the the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). These systems will be transitioned for operational use by both the U.S. Navy at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, MS, and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC), Monterey, CA, and by NOAA at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Washington, D.C. These systems will run efficiently on a variety of massively parallel computers and will include sophisticated data assimilation techniques for assimilation of satellite altimeter sea surface height and sea surface temperature as well as in situ temperature, salinity, and float displacement. The Partnership addresses the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) goals of three-dimensional (3D) depiction of the ocean state at fine resolution in real-time and provision of boundary conditions for coastal and regional models. An overview of the effort will be presented.

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the

NMMB/BSC-DUST: model validation at regional scale in Northern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Pérez, Carlos; Jorba, Oriol; María Baldasano, José; Janjic, Zavisa; Black, Tom; Slobodan, Nickovic; Prigent, Catherine; Laurent, Benoit

2010-05-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important at global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are controlled on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the cubic higher-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors on surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently never better than about 1°×1°. Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over large arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for reflect mesoscale character of systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other Another strong uncertainties in dust emissions from such approaches are related to the missrepresentation originates from of coarse representation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. With the development of the new model NMMB-BSC/DUST [Pérez et al., 2008], we are now focusing on the evalution of the model sensitivity to several processes related to dust emissions. The results presented here are an intermediate step to provide global dust forecasts up to 7 days at sub-synoptic resolutions in the near future. NMMB-BSC/DUST is coupled online with the NOAA/NCEP/EMC global/regional NMMB atmospheric model [Janjic, 2005] extending from meso to global scales an being fully embedded into the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). We performed regional simulations for the Northern African domain, including the Arabian peninsula and southern/central Europe (0 to 65°N and 25°W to 55°E) at 1/3°x1/3° and 1/6x1/6° horizontal resolution with 64 vertical layers. The model is initialized with 6-hourly updated NCEP 1x1° analysis data with a dust spin

Structure of the tropical lower stratosphere as revealed by three reanalysis data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pawson, S.; Fiorino, M.

1996-05-01

While the skill of climate simulation models has advanced over the last decade, mainly through improvements in modeling, further progress will depend on the availability and the quality of comprehensive validation data sets covering long time periods. A new source of such validation data is atmospheric {open_quotes}reanalysis{close_quotes} where a fixed, state-of-the-art global atmospheric model/data assimilation system is run through archived and recovered observations to produce a consistent set of atmospheric analyses. Although reanalysis will be free of non-physical variability caused by changes in the models and/or the assimilation procedure, it is necessary to assess its quality. A region for stringentmore » testing of the quality of reanalysis is the tropical lower stratosphere. This portion of the atmosphere is sparse in observations but displays the prominent quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and an annual cycle, neither of which is fully understood, but which are likely coupled dynamically. We first consider the performance of three reanalyses, from NCEP/NCAR, NASA and ECMWF, against rawinsonde data in depicting the QBO and then examine the structure of the tropical lower stratosphere in NCEP and ECMWF data sets in detail. While the annual cycle and the QBO in wind and temperature are quite successfully represented, the mean meridional circulations in NCEP and ECMWF data sets contain unusual features which may be due to the assimilation process rather than being physically based. Further, the models capture the long-term temperature fluctuations associated with volcanic eruptions, even though the physical mechanisms are not included, thus implying that the model does not mask prominent stratospheric signals in the observational data. We conclude that reanalysis offers a unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics of QBO and can be applied to climate model validation.« less

The HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) Data Assimilative System

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Systems Inc., Stennis Space Center. MS, USA d SHOM/CMO, Toulouse. France € Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. USA Received 1 October 2004...Global Ocean Data Assimilation ’U. of Miami, NRL, Los Alamos, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/AOML, Experiment (GODAE). GODAE is a coordinated inter- NOAA/PMEL, PSI...of Miami, the Naval all three approaches and the optimal distribution is Research Laboratory (NRL), and the Los Alamos chosen at every time step. The

Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-06-01

The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April-3 May 2008), Aila (23-26 May 2009) and Jal (4-8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.

Growth Friendly Surgery and Serial Cast Correction in the Treatment of Early-onset Scoliosis for Patients With Prader-Willi Syndrome.

PubMed

Oore, Jonathan; Connell, Braydon; Yaszay, Burt; Samdani, Amer; Hilaire, Tricia St; Flynn, Tara; El-Hawary, Ron

2018-02-02

Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) patients can present with scoliosis which can be treated with serial cast correction (SCC) or with growth friendly surgery (GFS). This study's purpose was to describe the results of SCC as well as GFS for PWS patients with early-onset scoliosis (EOS). PWS patients were identified from 2 international multicenter EOS databases. Scoliosis, kyphosis, spine height (T1-S1), right/left hemithoracic heights/widths (RHTH, LHTH, RHTW, LHTW) were measured pretreatment, postoperation, and at 2-year follow-up. Complications were recorded. Overall, 23 patients with 2-year follow-up were identified. Pretreatment; patients treated with SCC (n=10) had mean age of 1.8±0.6 years; body mass index (BMI), 16±1.5 kg/m; scoliosis, 45±18 degrees; kyphosis, 56±9 degrees; T1-S1, 22.4±2.4 cm; RHTH, 8.0±2.0 cm; LHTH, 8.5±1.7 cm; RHTW, 6.6±1.3 cm; and LHTW, 8.0±1.0 cm. Patients treated with GFS (n=13) had mean age of 5.8±2.6 years; BMI, 21±5.4 kg/m; scoliosis, 76±14 degrees; kyphosis, 59±25 degrees; T1-S1, 24.1±3.6 cm; RHTH, 10.0±1.6 cm; LHTH, 10.6±1.6 cm; RHTW, 9.4±2.5 cm; and LHTW, 8.1±2.8 cm. At 2-year follow-up, patients treated with SCC had mean scoliosis 37±11 degrees (18% correction, P=0.06); kyphosis, 42±6 degrees (NS); T1-S1, 26.4±2.1 cm (P<0.01); RHTH, 9.0±1.1 cm (13%; P=0.30); LHTH, 10.0±1.5 cm (18%, P<0.01); RHTW, 7.4±1.1 cm (12%, P<0.01); and LHTW, 8.0±1.0 cm (0%, P=0.34). At 2-year follow-up, patients treated with GFS had mean scoliosis 42±13 degrees (45% correction, P<0.000001); kyphosis, 53±13 degrees (10%, P=0.19); T1-S1, 31.5±5.4 cm (P<0.00001); RHTH, 12.0±2.4 cm (20%; P<0.01); LHTH, 12.0±1.7 cm (13%; P<0.01); RHTW, 9.8±1.3 cm (4%; P=0.27); and LHTW, 7.9±2.3 cm (3%;P=0.11). As an entire group, patients with a BMI>17 kg/m² had more device-related than disease-related complications (P=0.09). Patients treated with SCC had 0.9 complications per patient. Patients treated with

Air quality modelling over the Eastern Mediterranean using the WRF/Chem model: Comparison of gas-phase chemistry and aerosol mechanisms