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Sample records for negative predictive values

  1. Precision and negative predictive value of links between ClinicalTrials.gov and PubMed.

    PubMed

    Huser, Vojtech; Cimino, James J

    2012-01-01

    One of the goals of translational science is to shorten the time from discovery to clinical use. Clinical trial registries were established to increase transparency in completed and ongoing clinical trials, and they support linking trials with resulting publications. We set out to investigate precision and negative predictive value (NPV) of links between ClinicalTrials.gov (CT.gov) and PubMed. CT.gov has been established to increase transparency in clinical trials and the link to PubMed is crucial for supporting a number of important functions, including ascertaining publication bias. We drew a random sample of trials downloaded from CT.gov and performed manual review of retrieved publications. We characterize two types of links between trials and publications (NCT-link originating from MEDLINE and PMID-link originating from CT.gov).The link precision is different based on type (NCT-link: 100%; PMID-link: 63% to 96%). In trials with no linked publication, we were able to find publications 44% of the time (NPV=56%) by searching PubMed. This low NPV shows that there are potentially numerous publications that should have been formally linked with the trials. Our results indicate that existing trial registry and publisher policies may not be fully enforced. We suggest some automated methods for improving link quality.

  2. Positive and Negative Predictive Value of PET-CT in Skull Base Lesions: Case Series and Systematic Literature Review.

    PubMed

    Hines, John Peyton; Howard, Brittany E; Hoxworth, Joseph M; Lal, Devyani

    2016-03-01

    Objectives To study positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography with computed tomography (PET-CT) scans in determining malignancy in skull base lesions and perform a systematic literature review for optimal PET-CT interpretation. Design Retrospective case series and systematic literature review of the current English literature. Setting Tertiary referral academic medical center. Participants All patients with skull base lesions that underwent PET-CT and tissue biopsy from 2010 to 2013. Main Outcome Measures PPV and NPV of radiologist's report and standardized uptake value (SUV) cutoff of 2.5 and 3, biopsy with pathologic interpretation, clinical follow-up. Results A total of 31 PET-CT scans of 16 patients were studied; 10 PET-CT were performed upfront for diagnostic purposes and 21 were post-treatment surveillance scans. The PPV of radiologist's interpretation, SUV cutoff of 2.5, and SUV cutoff of 3.0 was 80%, 60%, and 68.4%, with a NPV of 100%, 83.3%, and 75%, respectively. Literature search yielded 500 abstracts; 7 studies met inclusion criteria for detailed review. No consensus or guidelines for optimal SUV cutoff value was found. Conclusions PET-CT based on SUV cutoff criteria alone has high NPV but low PPV in determining malignancy in skull base lesions. Interpretation by a radiologist experienced in nuclear medicine and neuroradiology, synthesizing clinical, SUV, and radiologic data are of superior value.

  3. Predictive Factors and Value of ypN+ after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Clinically Lymph Node-Negative Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Fukada, Ippei; Araki, Kazuhiro; Kobayashi, Kokoro; Shibayama, Tomoko; Takahashi, Shunji; Horii, Rie; Akiyama, Futoshi; Iwase, Takuji; Ohno, Shinji; Hatake, Kiyohiko; Hozumi, Yasuo; Sata, Naohiro; Ito, Yoshinori

    2016-01-01

    Background Pathological complete response (pCR) with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has been regarded as a surrogate endpoint for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with breast cancer. No consensus regarding the definition of pCR has been established; there are several definitions according to a variety of classifications. Eradication of cancer cells in both breast and lymph nodes has been better associated with improved prognosis than in the breast alone. Even in patients diagnosed as having clinically node-negative cancer before NAC, postoperative pathological examination often shows axillary lymph node metastases. Patients and Methods Of the 771 patients with breast cancer who underwent NAC in the Cancer Institute Hospital between January 2000 and May 2009, 146 patients preoperatively diagnosed as having node-negative breast cancer were retrospectively evaluated. We have made the definition of clinically lymph node-negative (N0) as follows: first, ultrasonography before NAC did not show any lymphadenopathy. Second, a cytological procedure confirmed negative study for each patient when ultrasonography suggested lymphadenopathy. Results The median observation period was 79.7 months, and the median age of the subjects was 51 years. Pathological examination at the time of the surgery showed lymph node metastases (ypN+) in 46 patients (31.5%). Histological therapeutic effects revealed ypT0/is in 9 patients (6.2%) and ypTinv in 137 (93.8%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that younger age (49>), large tumor size, NG3, and ypN+ were significant poor prognostic factors for DFS (p = 0.020, p = 0.008, P = 0.022 and p = 0.010, respectively). Moreover, ypN+ was the only significant poor prognostic factor for OS (p = 0.022). The predictive factors of ypN+ in clinically lymph node–negative breast cancer were ypTinv (p = 0.036) and the luminal type (HR+ and HER2-) (p = 0.029). Conclusion The prognosis of clinically lymph node negative breast

  4. Analysis of Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positive and Negative Predictive Values of Smear and Colposcopy in Diagnosis of Premalignant and Malignant Cervical Lesions.

    PubMed

    Barut, Mert Ulaş; Kale, Ahmet; Kuyumcuoğlu, Umur; Bozkurt, Murat; Ağaçayak, Elif; Özekinci, Server; Gül, Talip

    2015-12-10

    BACKGROUND This study aimed to examine the positive and negative predictive value in the diagnosis of premalignant and malignant lesions of cervical colposcopy, the sensitivity and specificity of smear, and to evaluate the correlation with histopathology of abnormal cytology and colposcopy. MATERIAL AND METHODS The criteria for inclusion of patients with unhealthy cervix in the study were: Erosion, Chronic cervicitis, and Healed lacerations, Hypertrophied cervix, bleeding on touch, suspicious growth/ulcer/polyp on the cervix, and abnormal discharges from the cervix. Women with frank carcinoma cervix, pregnant females, patients with bleeding per vaginum at the time of examination, and those who had used vaginal medications, vaginal contraceptives or douches in the last 48 h of examination were excluded from the study. Demographic analysis was performed for 450 patients who were admitted to the clinic. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values of patients to identify cervical pathologies of smear and colposcopy were histopathologically calculated. The statistical software package SPSS 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) and Spearman's and Chi-Square tests were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of smear were 0.57%, 0.76%, 0.26%, 0.92% respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of colposcopy were 0.92%, 0.67%, 0.52%, 0.96% respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between abnormal cytology and histopathology, and abnormal colposcopy finding and histopathology. CONCLUSIONS Women with clinical diagnosis of unhealthy cervix should be evaluated by cytology to detect any premalignant or malignant lesions. It was concluded that Pap smear, colposcopy and histopathology should be collectively evaluated to evaluate cervical findings in low socio-economic regions.

  5. Analysis of Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positive and Negative Predictive Values of Smear and Colposcopy in Diagnosis of Premalignant and Malignant Cervical Lesions

    PubMed Central

    Barut, Mert Ulaş; Kale, Ahmet; Kuyumcuoğlu, Umur; Bozkurt, Murat; Ağaçayak, Elif; Özekinci, Server; Gul, Talip

    2015-01-01

    Background This study aimed to examine the positive and negative predictive value in the diagnosis of premalignant and malignant lesions of cervical colposcopy, the sensitivity and specificity of smear, and to evaluate the correlation with histopathology of abnormal cytology and colposcopy. Material/Methods The criteria for inclusion of patients with unhealthy cervix in the study were: Erosion, Chronic cervicitis, and Healed lacerations, Hypertrophied cervix, bleeding on touch, suspicious growth/ulcer/polyp on the cervix, and abnormal discharges from the cervix. Women with frank carcinoma cervix, pregnant females, patients with bleeding per vaginum at the time of examination, and those who had used vaginal medications, vaginal contraceptives or douches in the last 48 h of examination were excluded from the study. Demographic analysis was performed for 450 patients who were admitted to the clinic. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values of patients to identify cervical pathologies of smear and colposcopy were histopathologically calculated. The statistical software package SPSS 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) and Spearman‘s and Chi-Square tests were used for statistical analysis. Results Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of smear were 0.57%, 0.76%, 0.26%, 0.92% respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of colposcopy were 0.92%, 0.67%, 0.52%, 0.96% respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between abnormal cytology and histopathology, and abnormal colposcopy finding and histopathology. Conclusions Women with clinical diagnosis of unhealthy cervix should be evaluated by cytology to detect any premalignant or malignant lesions. It was concluded that Pap smear, colposcopy and histopathology should be collectively evaluated to evaluate cervical findings in low socio-economic regions. PMID:26655816

  6. The importance of negative predictive value (NPV) of vulnerable elderly survey (VES 13) as a pre-screening test in older patients with cancer.

    PubMed

    Castagneto, B; Di Pietrantonj, C; Stevani, I; Anfossi, A; Arzese, M; Giorcelli, L; Giaretto, L

    2013-12-01

    The importance of prognostic value of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is well known in geriatric oncology, but there is no consensus on the use of alternative abbreviated screening methods for the evaluation of older patient disabilities. The participants in this study underwent vulnerable elderly survey 13 (VES 13) at first entry in Oncology Department and were later assessed by a geriatrician according to CGA. A score >3 for VES 13 identified patients as vulnerable. Aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity, sensibility, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of VES 13 versus cumulative illness rating scale (CIRS), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ). Hundred and seventeen patients (mean age 78.8 years) entered the study. The NPV of VES was 74.6% for CIRS, 90.1% for IADL, 93.0% for ADL, and 100% for SPMSQ. As for PPV, the VES 13 showed no accuracy. We can conclude that VES 13 demonstrated sufficient accuracy as a screening test in identifying elderly "fit" patients in order to spare the more time-consuming CGA.

  7. The 'negative cost' of value engineering.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Martin

    2012-06-01

    Martin Wilkinson, national sales manager at system protection specialist, Spirotech UK, highlights the 'potential negative consequences' of value engineering in heating system specification in the healthcare sector, and argues that system protection products such as de-aerators and dirt separators have considerable value in preventative maintenance, and in helping to extend the useful life of both the system as a whole, and its vital parts.

  8. Predictive value and clinical utility of centrally assessed ER, PgR, and Ki-67 to select adjuvant endocrine therapy for premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer: TEXT and SOFT trials.

    PubMed

    Regan, Meredith M; Pagani, Olivia; Francis, Prudence A; Fleming, Gini F; Walley, Barbara A; Kammler, Roswitha; Dell'Orto, Patrizia; Russo, Leila; Szőke, János; Doimi, Franco; Villani, Laura; Pizzolitto, Stefano; Öhlschlegel, Christian; Sessa, Fausto; Peg Cámara, Vicente; Rodríguez Peralto, José Luis; MacGrogan, Gaëtan; Colleoni, Marco; Goldhirsch, Aron; Price, Karen N; Coates, Alan S; Gelber, Richard D; Viale, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    The SOFT and TEXT randomized phase III trials investigated adjuvant endocrine therapies for premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) early breast cancer. We investigated the prognostic and predictive value of centrally assessed levels of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), and Ki-67 expression in women with HER2-negative disease. Of 5707 women enrolled, 4115 with HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) disease had ER, PgR, and Ki-67 centrally assessed by immunohistochemistry. Breast cancer-free interval (BCFI) was defined from randomization to first invasive local, regional, or distant recurrence or contralateral breast cancer. The prognostic and predictive values of ER, PgR and Ki-67 expression levels were assessed using Cox modeling and STEPP methodology. In this HR+/HER2- population, the median ER, PgR, and Ki-67 expressions were 95, 90, and 18 % immunostained cells. As most patients had strongly ER-positive tumors, the predictive value of ER levels could not be investigated. Lower PgR and higher Ki-67 expression were associated with reduced BCFI. There was no consistent evidence of heterogeneity of the relative treatment effects according to PgR or Ki-67 expression levels, though there was a greater 5-year absolute benefit of exemestane + ovarian function suppression (OFS) versus tamoxifen with or without OFS at lower levels of PgR and higher levels of Ki-67. Women with poor prognostic features of low PgR and/or high Ki-67 have greater absolute benefit from exemestane + OFS versus tamoxifen + OFS or tamoxifen alone, but individually PgR and Ki-67 are of limited predictive value for selecting adjuvant endocrine therapy for premenopausal women with HR+/HER2- early breast cancer.

  9. Conscientiousness predicts greater recovery from negative emotion.

    PubMed

    Javaras, Kristin N; Schaefer, Stacey M; van Reekum, Carien M; Lapate, Regina C; Greischar, Lawrence L; Bachhuber, David R; Love, Gayle Dienberg; Ryff, Carol D; Davidson, Richard J

    2012-10-01

    Greater levels of conscientiousness have been associated with lower levels of negative affect. We focus on one mechanism through which conscientiousness may decrease negative affect: effective emotion regulation, as reflected by greater recovery from negative stimuli. In 273 adults who were 35-85 years old, we collected self-report measures of personality including conscientiousness and its self-control facet, followed on average 2 years later by psychophysiological measures of emotional reactivity and recovery. Among middle-aged adults (35-65 years old), the measures of conscientiousness and self-control predicted greater recovery from, but not reactivity to, negative emotional stimuli. The effect of conscientiousness and self-control on recovery was not driven by other personality variables or by greater task adherence on the part of high conscientiousness individuals. In addition, the effect was specific to negative emotional stimuli and did not hold for neutral or positive emotional stimuli.

  10. Visual mismatch negativity: a predictive coding view

    PubMed Central

    Stefanics, Gábor; Kremláček, Jan; Czigler, István

    2014-01-01

    An increasing number of studies investigate the visual mismatch negativity (vMMN) or use the vMMN as a tool to probe various aspects of human cognition. This paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of vMMN in the light of methodological considerations and provides recommendations for measuring and interpreting the vMMN. The following key issues are discussed from the experimentalist's point of view in a predictive coding framework: (1) experimental protocols and procedures to control “refractoriness” effects; (2) methods to control attention; (3) vMMN and veridical perception. PMID:25278859

  11. Positron emission tomography has a high negative predictive value for progression or early relapse for patients with residual disease after first-line chemotherapy in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Kobe, Carsten; Dietlein, Markus; Franklin, Jeremy; Markova, Jana; Lohri, Andreas; Amthauer, Holger; Klutmann, Susanne; Knapp, Wolfram H.; Zijlstra, Josee M.; Bockisch, Andreas; Weckesser, Matthias; Lorenz, Reinhard; Schreckenberger, Mathias; Bares, Roland; Eich, Hans T.; Mueller, Rolf-Peter; Fuchs, Michael; Borchmann, Peter; Schicha, Harald; Diehl, Volker

    2008-01-01

    In the HD15 trial of the German Hodgkin Study Group, the negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography (PET) using [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) was evaluated. A total of 817 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive BEACOPP-based chemotherapy. After completion of chemotherapy, residual disease measuring more than or equal to 2.5 cm in diameter was assessed by PET in 311 patients. The NPV of PET was defined as the proportion of PET− patients without progression, relapse, or irradiation within 12 months after PET review panel. The progression-free survival was 96% for PET− patients (95% confidence interval [CI], 94%-99%) and 86% for PET+ patients (95% CI, 78%-95%, P = .011). The NPV for PET in this analysis was 94% (95% CI, 91%-97%). Thus, consolidation radiotherapy can be omitted in PET− patients with residual disease without increasing the risk for progression or early relapse compared with patients in complete remission. The impact of this finding on the overall survival at 5 years must be awaited. Until then, response adapted therapy guided by PET for HL patients seems to be a promising approach that should be further evaluated in clinical trials. This trial is registered at http://isrctn.org study as #ISRCTN32443041. PMID:18757777

  12. Immediate hypersensitivity to penicillins with negative skin tests--the value of specific IgE.

    PubMed

    Silva, R; Cruz, L; Botelho, C; Castro, E; Cadinha, S; Castel-Branco, M G; Rodrigues, J

    2009-08-01

    The determination of specific IgE in patients with history of penicillins hypersensitivity is simple, safe and widely available. The positive and negative predictive values of this determination, however, are not yet established. In order to evaluate them, we performed specific IgE determination and diagnostic drug challenges in a group of 22 patients with a clear history of immediate penicillins hypersensitivity but negative skin tests. In this sample, the positive and negative predictive values were 29% and 87%, respectively. This seems to indicate that a positive specific IgE is not enough to confirm the diagnosis, and further study is necessary.

  13. The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans

    PubMed Central

    Lawson, Rebecca P.; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J.; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P.

    2014-01-01

    Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans. PMID:25071182

  14. The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Rebecca P; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P

    2014-08-12

    Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans.

  15. Kernel Extended Real-Valued Negative Selection Algorithm (KERNSA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    comparing supervised classification learning algorithms. Neural computation, 10(7):1895–1923, 1998. [23] Thomas Dietterich. Ensemble methods in machine...2003. [70] Bernhard Schölkopf. The kernel trick for distances. Advances in neural information processing systems, pages 301–307, 2001. [71] Bernhard ...pages 371–377. IEEE, 1999. [74] Thomas Stibor and Jonathan Timmis. Comments on real-valued negative selection vs. real-valued positive selection and

  16. The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

    PubMed

    Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N

    2015-01-01

    It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

  17. Seeing ghosts: negative body evaluation predicts overestimation of negative social feedback.

    PubMed

    Alleva, Jessica M; Lange, Wolf-Gero; Jansen, Anita; Martijn, Carolien

    2014-06-01

    The current study investigated whether negative body evaluation predicts women's overestimation of negative social feedback related to their own body (i.e., covariation bias). Sixty-five female university students completed a computer task where photos of their own body, of a control woman's body, and of a neutral object, were followed by nonverbal social feedback (i.e., facial crowds with equal numbers of negative, positive, and neutral faces). Afterward, women estimated the percentage of negative, positive, and neutral social feedback that followed their own body, the control woman's body, and the neutral object. The findings provided evidence for a covariation bias: negative body evaluation predicted higher estimates of negative social feedback for women's own body, but not for the other stimuli. Additionally, the covariation bias was not explained by differences in how women interpreted the social feedback (the facial stimuli). Clinical implications of the covariation bias to body image are discussed.

  18. Error-related negativity reflects detection of negative reward prediction error.

    PubMed

    Yasuda, Asako; Sato, Atsushi; Miyawaki, Kaori; Kumano, Hiroaki; Kuboki, Tomifusa

    2004-11-15

    Error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential elicited in error trials. To examine the function of ERN, we performed an experiment in which two within-participants factors were manipulated: outcome uncertainty and content of feedback. The ERN was largest when participants expected correct feedback but received error feedback. There were significant positive correlations between the ERN amplitude and the rate of response switching in the subsequent trial, and between the ERN amplitude and the trait version score on negative affect scale. These results suggest that ERN reflects detection of a negative reward prediction error and promotes subsequent response switching, and that individuals with high negative affect are hypersensitive to a negative reward prediction error.

  19. Prognostic and predictive value of NanoString-based immune-related gene signatures in a neoadjuvant setting of triple-negative breast cancer: relationship to tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hee Jin; Lee, Jeong-Ju; Song, In Hye; Park, In Ah; Kang, Jun; Yu, Jong Han; Ahn, Jin-Hee; Gong, Gyungyub

    2015-06-01

    The prognostic significance of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and immune signals has been described previously in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Furthermore, recent studies have shown that immunologic parameters are relevant for the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer as well as for outcomes after adjuvant chemotherapy. However, immune signals are variable, and which signals are important is largely unknown. We, therefore, evaluated the expression of immune-related genes in TNBC treated with NAC. We retrospectively evaluated biopsy tissue from 55 patients with primary TNBC treated with NAC (anthracycline, cyclophosphamide, and docetaxel) against the NanoString nCounter GX Human Immunology Panel (579 immune-related genes). Higher expression of cytotoxic molecules, T cell receptor signaling pathway components, cytokines related to T helper cell type 1 (Th1), and B cell markers was associated with a pathologic complete response (pCR). Higher expression of NFKB1, MAPK1, TRAF1, CXCL13, GZMK, and IL7R was significantly associated with pCR, higher Miller-Payne grade, and lower residual cancer burden class. Expression of NFKB1, TRAF1, and CXCL13genes, in particular, was significantly correlated with a longer disease-free survival rate. Conversely, patients those who failed to achieve a pCR showed increased expression of genes related to neutrophils. Higher expression of cytotoxic molecules, T cell receptor signaling pathway components, Th1-related cytokines, and B cell markers is correlated with pCR and survival in TNBC patients treated with NAC. Our results suggest that the activation status of neutrophils may provide additional predictive information for TNBC patients treated with NAC.

  20. Prospect theory does not describe the feedback-related negativity value function.

    PubMed

    Sambrook, Thomas D; Roser, Matthew; Goslin, Jeremy

    2012-12-01

    Humans handle uncertainty poorly. Prospect theory accounts for this with a value function in which possible losses are overweighted compared to possible gains, and the marginal utility of rewards decreases with size. fMRI studies have explored the neural basis of this value function. A separate body of research claims that prediction errors are calculated by midbrain dopamine neurons. We investigated whether the prospect theoretic effects shown in behavioral and fMRI studies were present in midbrain prediction error coding by using the feedback-related negativity, an ERP component believed to reflect midbrain prediction errors. Participants' stated satisfaction with outcomes followed prospect theory but their feedback-related negativity did not, instead showing no effect of marginal utility and greater sensitivity to potential gains than losses.

  1. Predictive value of a history of varicella infection

    PubMed Central

    Holmes, Candice N.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine whether a history of previous varicella infection provides a reliable marker for prior infection. QUALITY OF EVIDENCE MEDLINE was searched from January 1996 to May 2002 using the MeSH headings “varicella,” “chickenpox,” and “medical history taking.” Recommendations in this paper are based on evidence from well designed cross-sectional studies. MAIN MESSAGE Serologic testing is advised, rather than presumptive vaccination, for those with a negative or uncertain history of varicella; most will be immune. For those with a positive history of varicella, the advice given depends on the population. For populations at higher risk of varicella infection (eg, health care workers, pregnant women), routine serum testing is recommended. For low-risk populations, physicians could accept a positive history of varicella as a reliable indicator of immunity. CONCLUSION Most studies found that patients’ history of varicella had a high positive predictive value and a low negative predictive value. These findings suggest that a positive history of varicella is a reliable marker of disease while a negative history does not not predict lack of immunity. PMID:15732223

  2. Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies.

  3. Purpose in life predicts better emotional recovery from negative stimuli.

    PubMed

    Schaefer, Stacey M; Morozink Boylan, Jennifer; van Reekum, Carien M; Lapate, Regina C; Norris, Catherine J; Ryff, Carol D; Davidson, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    Purpose in life predicts both health and longevity suggesting that the ability to find meaning from life's experiences, especially when confronting life's challenges, may be a mechanism underlying resilience. Having purpose in life may motivate reframing stressful situations to deal with them more productively, thereby facilitating recovery from stress and trauma. In turn, enhanced ability to recover from negative events may allow a person to achieve or maintain a feeling of greater purpose in life over time. In a large sample of adults (aged 36-84 years) from the MIDUS study (Midlife in the U.S., http://www.midus.wisc.edu/), we tested whether purpose in life was associated with better emotional recovery following exposure to negative picture stimuli indexed by the magnitude of the eyeblink startle reflex (EBR), a measure sensitive to emotional state. We differentiated between initial emotional reactivity (during stimulus presentation) and emotional recovery (occurring after stimulus offset). Greater purpose in life, assessed over two years prior, predicted better recovery from negative stimuli indexed by a smaller eyeblink after negative pictures offset, even after controlling for initial reactivity to the stimuli during the picture presentation, gender, age, trait affect, and other well-being dimensions. These data suggest a proximal mechanism by which purpose in life may afford protection from negative events and confer resilience is through enhanced automatic emotion regulation after negative emotional provocation.

  4. Purpose in Life Predicts Better Emotional Recovery from Negative Stimuli

    PubMed Central

    Schaefer, Stacey M.; Morozink Boylan, Jennifer; van Reekum, Carien M.; Lapate, Regina C.; Norris, Catherine J.; Ryff, Carol D.; Davidson, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose in life predicts both health and longevity suggesting that the ability to find meaning from life’s experiences, especially when confronting life’s challenges, may be a mechanism underlying resilience. Having purpose in life may motivate reframing stressful situations to deal with them more productively, thereby facilitating recovery from stress and trauma. In turn, enhanced ability to recover from negative events may allow a person to achieve or maintain a feeling of greater purpose in life over time. In a large sample of adults (aged 36-84 years) from the MIDUS study (Midlife in the U.S., http://www.midus.wisc.edu/), we tested whether purpose in life was associated with better emotional recovery following exposure to negative picture stimuli indexed by the magnitude of the eyeblink startle reflex (EBR), a measure sensitive to emotional state. We differentiated between initial emotional reactivity (during stimulus presentation) and emotional recovery (occurring after stimulus offset). Greater purpose in life, assessed over two years prior, predicted better recovery from negative stimuli indexed by a smaller eyeblink after negative pictures offset, even after controlling for initial reactivity to the stimuli during the picture presentation, gender, age, trait affect, and other well-being dimensions. These data suggest a proximal mechanism by which purpose in life may afford protection from negative events and confer resilience is through enhanced automatic emotion regulation after negative emotional provocation. PMID:24236176

  5. Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET

    PubMed Central

    Oyen, Wim J.G.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The predictive and prognostic value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) in non-small-cell lung carcinoma, colorectal carcinoma and lymphoma is discussed. The degree of FDG uptake is of prognostic value at initial presentation, after induction treatment prior to resection and in the case of relapse of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In locally advanced and advanced stages of NSCLC, FDG-PET has been shown to be predictive for clinical outcome at an early stage of treatment. In colorectal carcinoma, limited studies are available on the prognostic value of FDG-PET, however, the technique appears to have great potential in monitoring the success of local ablative therapies soon after intervention and in the prediction and evaluation of response to radiotherapy, systemic therapy, and combinations thereof. The prognostic value of end-of treatment FDG-PET for FDG-avid lymphomas has been established, and the next step is to define how to use this information to optimize patient outcome. In Hodgkin's lymphoma, FDG-PET has a high negative predictive value, however, histological confirmation of positive findings should be sought where possible. For non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, the opposite applies. The newly published standardized guidelines for interpretation formulates specific criteria for visual interpretation and for defining PET positivity in the liver, spleen, lung, bone marrow and small residual lesions. The introduction of these guidelines should reduce variability among studies. Interim PET offers a reliable method for early prediction of long-term remission, however it should only be performed in prospective randomized controlled trials. Many of the diagnostic and management questions considered in this review are relevant to other tumour types. Further research in this field is of great importance, since it may lead to a change in the therapeutic concept of cancer. The preliminary findings call for systematic inclusion of FDG

  6. Systematic bias of correlation coefficient may explain negative accuracy of genomic prediction.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yao; Isabel Vales, M; Wang, Aoxue; Zhang, Zhiwu

    2016-07-19

    Accuracy of genomic prediction is commonly calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed phenotypes in the inference population by using cross-validation analysis. More frequently than expected, significant negative accuracies of genomic prediction have been reported in genomic selection studies. These negative values are surprising, given that the minimum value for prediction accuracy should hover around zero when randomly permuted data sets are analyzed. We reviewed the two common approaches for calculating the Pearson correlation and hypothesized that these negative accuracy values reflect potential bias owing to artifacts caused by the mathematical formulas used to calculate prediction accuracy. The first approach, Instant accuracy, calculates correlations for each fold and reports prediction accuracy as the mean of correlations across fold. The other approach, Hold accuracy, predicts all phenotypes in all fold and calculates correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes at the end of the cross-validation process. Using simulated and real data, we demonstrated that our hypothesis is true. Both approaches are biased downward under certain conditions. The biases become larger when more fold are employed and when the expected accuracy is low. The bias of Instant accuracy can be corrected using a modified formula.

  7. The contact caveat: negative contact predicts increased prejudice more than positive contact predicts reduced prejudice.

    PubMed

    Barlow, Fiona Kate; Paolini, Stefania; Pedersen, Anne; Hornsey, Matthew J; Radke, Helena R M; Harwood, Jake; Rubin, Mark; Sibley, Chris G

    2012-12-01

    Contact researchers have largely overlooked the potential for negative intergroup contact to increase prejudice. In Study 1, we tested the interaction between contact quantity and valence on prejudice toward Black Australians (n = 1,476), Muslim Australians (n = 173), and asylum seekers (n = 293). In all cases, the association between contact quantity and prejudice was moderated by its valence, with negative contact emerging as a stronger and more consistent predictor than positive contact. In Study 2, White Americans (n = 441) indicated how much positive and negative contact they had with Black Americans on separate measures. Although both quantity of positive and negative contact predicted racism and avoidance, negative contact was the stronger predictor. Furthermore, negative (but not positive) contact independently predicted suspicion about Barack Obama's birthplace. These results extend the contact hypothesis by issuing an important caveat: Negative contact may be more strongly associated with increased racism and discrimination than positive contact is with its reduction.

  8. Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N A; Fu, Yan

    2015-01-01

    In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods.

  9. Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N. A.; Fu, Yan

    2015-01-01

    In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods. PMID:26075404

  10. Predictive value of stool examination in acute diarrhea.

    PubMed

    Siegel, D; Cohen, P T; Neighbor, M; Larkin, H; Newman, M; Yajko, D; Hadley, K

    1987-08-01

    We prospectively evaluate the value of fecal blood and fecal leukocytes in predicting whether acute diarrhea in adults is associated with a stool culture positive for a bacterial pathogen. One hundred thirteen patients, aged 19 to 50 years, seen in a two-year period in an urban adult outpatient setting underwent stool culture for the presenting symptom of diarrhea. Heterosexual men represented 48% of the cohort, women represented 17%, and homosexual men represented 35%. Overall, 53 (47%) of the patients had positive stool cultures for enteric pathogens. Campylobacter jejuni was the most common organism in the entire cohort, but Shigella species were most common in homosexual men. The best predictive variables for a stool culture positive for a bacterial pathogen were the presence of both fecal leukocytes and fecal blood in the stool, compared with only one or neither. When both were present, the sensitivity was 81%, the specificity 74%, and the predictive values of a positive and negative test were 81% and 83%, respectively; the likelihood ratio was 4.87. When homosexual men and the rest of the cohort were analyzed separately, the combination of fecal leukocytes and fecal blood remained the best method of predicting a positive stool culture in both. Examination of stool for fecal leukocytes and fecal blood is a rapid, reliable, and inexpensive way to differentiate between bacterial and other causes of acute diarrhea in the adult acute care setting.

  11. The Roles of Negative Career Thoughts and Sense of Coherence in Predicting Career Decision Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Austin, R. Kirk; Dahl, A. Dennis; Wagner, Bruce D.

    2010-01-01

    The relationship between sense of coherence and negative career thoughts was investigated in a non-college-based population to determine the relationship and predictive value of these factors toward career decision status. Participants completed the Orientation to Life Questionnaire, Career Thoughts Inventory, and Career Decision Profile's…

  12. Chasing probabilities - Signaling negative and positive prediction errors across domains.

    PubMed

    Meder, David; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Hulme, Oliver; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2016-07-01

    Adaptive actions build on internal probabilistic models of possible outcomes that are tuned according to the errors of their predictions when experiencing an actual outcome. Prediction errors (PEs) inform choice behavior across a diversity of outcome domains and dimensions, yet neuroimaging studies have so far only investigated such signals in singular experimental contexts. It is thus unclear whether the neuroanatomical distribution of PE encoding reported previously pertains to computational features that are invariant with respect to outcome valence, sensory domain, or some combination of the two. We acquired functional MRI data while volunteers performed four probabilistic reversal learning tasks which differed in terms of outcome valence (reward-seeking versus punishment-avoidance) and domain (abstract symbols versus facial expressions) of outcomes. We found that ventral striatum and frontopolar cortex coded increasingly positive PEs, whereas dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) traced increasingly negative PEs, irrespectively of the outcome dimension. Individual reversal behavior was unaffected by context manipulations and was predicted by activity in dACC and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The stronger the response to negative PEs in these areas, the lower was the tendency to reverse choice behavior in response to negative events, suggesting that these regions enforce a rule-based strategy across outcome dimensions. Outcome valence influenced PE-related activity in left amygdala, IFG, and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, where activity selectively scaled with increasingly positive PEs in the reward-seeking but not punishment-avoidance context, irrespective of sensory domain. Left amygdala displayed an additional influence of sensory domain. In the context of avoiding punishment, amygdala activity increased with increasingly negative PEs, but only for facial stimuli, indicating an integration of outcome valence and sensory domain during probabilistic

  13. Negative correlation learning for customer churn prediction: a comparison study.

    PubMed

    Rodan, Ali; Fayyoumi, Ayham; Faris, Hossam; Alsakran, Jamal; Al-Kadi, Omar

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis.

  14. Negative Correlation Learning for Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparison Study

    PubMed Central

    Faris, Hossam

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis. PMID:25879060

  15. Acculturation Predicts Negative Affect and Shortened Telomere Length.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, R Jeanne; Trzeciakowski, Jerome; Moore, Tiffany; Ayers, Kimberly S; Pickler, Rita H

    2016-10-12

    Chronic stress may accelerate cellular aging. Telomeres, protective "caps" at the end of chromosomes, modulate cellular aging and may be good biomarkers for the effects of chronic stress, including that associated with acculturation. The purpose of this analysis was to examine telomere length (TL) in acculturating Hispanic Mexican American women and to determine the associations among TL, acculturation, and psychological factors. As part of a larger cross-sectional study of 516 pregnant Hispanic Mexican American women, we analyzed DNA in blood samples (N = 56) collected at 22-24 weeks gestation for TL as an exploratory measure using monochrome multiplex quantitative telomere polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We measured acculturation with the Acculturation Rating Scale for Mexican Americans, depression with the Beck Depression Inventory, discrimination with the Experiences of Discrimination Scale, and stress with the Perceived Stress Scale. TL was negatively moderately correlated with two variables of acculturation: Anglo orientation and greater acculturation-level scores. We combined these scores for a latent variable, acculturation, and we combined depression, stress, and discrimination scores in another latent variable, "negative affectivity." Acculturation and negative affectivity were bidirectionally correlated. Acculturation significantly negatively predicted TL. Using structural equation modeling, we found the model had an excellent fit with the root mean square error of approximation estimate = .0001, comparative fit index = 1.0, Tucker-Lewis index = 1.0, and standardized root mean square residual = .05. The negative effects of acculturation on the health of Hispanic women have been previously demonstrated. Findings from this analysis suggest a link between acculturation and TL, which may indicate accelerated cellular aging associated with overall poor health outcomes.

  16. Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H)

    PubMed Central

    Boezeman, Edwin J.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Methods: Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. Results: The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (p<.001), associations with productivity (r=.51), mental health (r=.48), and distress (r=.47). Conclusions: The screener (WFS-H) had good predictive value and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers. PMID:27010085

  17. The devil is in the specificity: the negative effect of prediction specificity on prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min

    2013-07-01

    In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making.

  18. Designing of discrete mechatronic vibrating systems with negative value parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchacz, Andrzej; Gałęziowski, Damian

    2016-10-01

    In the paper, the known problem of vibration control, authors expanded for designing of mechatronic discrete systems that contains single or multiply piezoelectric elements connected to external electric networks. Main focus has been given for investigations in relation to damping performance and parameters study, in case of potential practical application. By different configurations of considered mechatronic discrete branched structures with two degrees of freedom, key negative parameters have been identified and investigated in case of vibration control effectiveness. Results have been presented in graphical form of amplitudes and dynamical flexibility functions.

  19. Human attitudes towards herpetofauna: The influence of folklore and negative values on the conservation of amphibians and reptiles in Portugal

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Human values and folklore of wildlife strongly influence the effectiveness of conservation efforts. These values and folklore may also vary with certain demographic characteristics such as gender, age, or education. Reptiles and amphibians are among the least appreciated of vertebrates and are victims of many negative values and wrong ideas resulting from the direct interpretation of folklore. We try to demonstrate how these values and folklore can affect the way people relate to them and also the possible conservation impacts on these animals. Methods A questionnaire survey distributed to 514 people in the district of Évora, Portugal, was used to obtain data regarding the hypothesis that the existence of wrong ideas and negative values contributes to the phenomenon of human-associated persecution of these animals. A structural equation model was specified in order to confirm the hypothesis about the possible relationships between the presence of perceptions and negative values about amphibians and reptiles and persecution and anti-conservation attitudes. Sociodemographic variables were also added. Results The results of the model suggest that the presence of folklore and negative values clearly predicts persecution and anti-conservation attitudes towards amphibians and reptiles. Also, the existence of folklore varies sociodemographically, but negative values concerning these animals are widespread in the population. Conclusions With the use of structural equation models, this work is a contribution to the study of how certain ideas and values can directly influence human attitudes towards herpetofauna and how they can be a serious conservation issue. PMID:22316318

  20. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  1. Clinical Validation of an Epigenetic Assay to Predict Negative Histopathological Results in Repeat Prostate Biopsies

    PubMed Central

    Partin, Alan W.; Van Neste, Leander; Klein, Eric A.; Marks, Leonard S.; Gee, Jason R.; Troyer, Dean A.; Rieger-Christ, Kimberly; Jones, J. Stephen; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Mangold, Leslie A.; Trock, Bruce J.; Lance, Raymond S.; Bigley, Joseph W.; Van Criekinge, Wim; Epstein, Jonathan I.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The DOCUMENT multicenter trial in the United States validated the performance of an epigenetic test as an independent predictor of prostate cancer risk to guide decision making for repeat biopsy. Confirming an increased negative predictive value could help avoid unnecessary repeat biopsies. Materials and Methods We evaluated the archived, cancer negative prostate biopsy core tissue samples of 350 subjects from a total of 5 urological centers in the United States. All subjects underwent repeat biopsy within 24 months with a negative (controls) or positive (cases) histopathological result. Centralized blinded pathology evaluation of the 2 biopsy series was performed in all available subjects from each site. Biopsies were epigenetically profiled for GSTP1, APC and RASSF1 relative to the ACTB reference gene using quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction. Predetermined analytical marker cutoffs were used to determine assay performance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate all risk factors. Results The epigenetic assay resulted in a negative predictive value of 88% (95% CI 85–91). In multivariate models correcting for age, prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination, first biopsy histopathological characteristics and race the test proved to be the most significant independent predictor of patient outcome (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.60–4.51). Conclusions The DOCUMENT study validated that the epigenetic assay was a significant, independent predictor of prostate cancer detection in a repeat biopsy collected an average of 13 months after an initial negative result. Due to its 88% negative predictive value adding this epigenetic assay to other known risk factors may help decrease unnecessary repeat prostate biopsies. PMID:24747657

  2. Artificial neural networks reveal efficiency in genetic value prediction.

    PubMed

    Peixoto, L A; Bhering, L L; Cruz, C D

    2015-06-18

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for predicting genetic value in experiments carried out in randomized blocks. Sixteen scenarios were simulated with different values of heritability (10, 20, 30, and 40%), coefficient of variation (5 and 10%), and the number of genotypes per block (150 and 200 for validation, and 5000 for neural network training). One hundred validation populations were used in each scenario. Accuracy of ANNs was evaluated by comparing the correlation of network value with genetic value, and of phenotypic value with genetic value. Neural networks were efficient in predicting genetic value with a 0.64 to 10.3% gain compared to the phenotypic value, regardless the simulated population size, heritability, or coefficient of variation. Thus, the artificial neural network is a promising technique for predicting genetic value in balanced experiments.

  3. Interferon release does not add discriminatory value to smear-negative HIV-tuberculosis algorithms.

    PubMed

    Rangaka, M X; Gideon, H P; Wilkinson, K A; Pai, M; Mwansa-Kambafwile, J; Maartens, G; Glynn, J R; Boulle, A; Fielding, K; Goliath, R; Titus, R; Mathee, S; Wilkinson, R J

    2012-01-01

    Clinical algorithms for evaluating HIV-infected individuals for tuberculosis (TB) prior to isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) perform poorly, and interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) have moderate accuracy for active TB. It is unclear whether, when used as adjunct tests, IGRAs add any clinical discriminatory value for active TB diagnosis in the pre-IPT assessment. 779 sputum smear-negative HIV-infected persons, established on or about to commence combined antiretroviral therapy (ART), were screened for TB prior to IPT. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression was used to develop clinical prediction models. The discriminatory ability was assessed by receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC). QuantiFERON-TB Gold in-tube (QFT-GIT) was evaluated. The prevalence of smear-negative TB by culture was 6.4% (95% CI 4.9-8.4%). Used alone, QFT-GIT and the tuberculin skin test (TST) had comparable performance; the post-test probability of disease based on single negative tests was 3-4%. In a multivariable model, the QFT-GIT test did not improve the ability of a clinical algorithm, which included not taking ART, weight <60 kg, no prior history of TB, any one positive TB symptom/sign (cough ≥ 2 weeks) and CD4+ count <250 cells per mm(3), to discriminate smear-negative culture-positive and -negative TB (72% to 74%; AUC comparison p=0.33). The TST marginally improved the discriminatory ability of the clinical model (to 77%, AUC comparison p=0.04). QFT-GIT does not improve the discriminatory ability of current TB screening clinical algorithms used to evaluate HIV-infected individuals for TB ahead of preventive therapy. Evaluation of new TB diagnostics for clinical relevance should follow a multivariable process that goes beyond test accuracy.

  4. Negative emotion-driven impulsivity predicts substance dependence problems.

    PubMed

    Verdejo-García, Antonio; Bechara, Antoine; Recknor, Emily C; Pérez-García, Miguel

    2007-12-01

    Impulsivity is predominant among users of several drugs of abuse including alcohol, cocaine, and amphetamines, and it is considered a risk factor for later development of alcohol and substance abuse and dependence. However, there is little consensus on how impulsivity should be defined and measured, and there are few studies on the relationship between separate dimensions of impulsivity and substance dependence. We used a multidimensional measure of impulsivity (the UPPS scale) to examine differences between 36 individuals with substance dependence (ISD) and 36 drug-free controls on the dimensions of urgency, lack of premeditation, lack of perseverance, and sensation seeking. In addition, we examined which dimensions of impulsivity better predicted addiction-related problems as measured with the addiction severity index. Results revealed that ISD show high scores on dimensions of urgency, lack of perseverance, and lack of premeditation (effect sizes ranging from 1.10 to 1.96), but not on sensation seeking. Among the different impulsivity dimensions, urgency was the best predictor of severity of medical, employment, alcohol, drug, family/social, legal and psychiatric problems in ISD, explaining 13-48% of the total variance of these indices. Furthermore, urgency scores alone correctly classified 83% of the participants in the ISD group. Urgency is characterized by a tendency to act impulsively in response to negative emotional states. Thus, our results could have important implications for novel treatment approaches for substance dependence focused on emotional regulation.

  5. Predicting Response to Depression Treatment: The Role of Negative Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beevers, Christopher G.; Wells, Tony T.; Miller, Ivan W.

    2007-01-01

    Repeated experiences with major depressive disorder (MDD) may strengthen associations between negative thinking and dysphoria, rendering negative cognition more accessible and pronounced with each episode. According to cognitive theory, greater negative cognition should lead to a more protracted episode of depression. In this study of 121 adults…

  6. Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

    Cancer.gov

    Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

  7. Perceived Social Competence, Negative Social Interactions, and Negative Cognitive Style Predict Depressive Symptoms during Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Adabel; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Mermelstein, Robin J.

    2010-01-01

    The current study examined whether negative interactions with parents and peers would mediate the longitudinal association between perceived social competence and depressive symptoms and whether a negative cognitive style would moderate the longitudinal association between negative interactions with parents and increases in depressive symptoms.…

  8. Perceptual Negativity Predicts Greater Reactivity to Negative Events in Daily Life.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Michael D; Liu, Tianwei

    2013-11-01

    Reinforcement sensitivity theory includes the idea that people differ in their sensitivity to negative events, but relevant process-based assessments have not been developed. The present studies assessed sensitivity to negative events in terms of the extent to which negative word stimuli were perceived to be larger than neutral word stimuli. There was a general tendency to overestimate the size of negative relative to neutral words, but individuals differed substantially in this form of what is termed perceptual negativity. Of more importance, two studies (total N = 151) found systematic relationships between individual differences in perceptual negativity and reactivity to negative events in daily diary protocols. Study 1 found that within-person variations in the occurrence of daily negative events undermined goal-related optimism to a greater extent at higher, relative to lower, levels of perceptual negativity. Study 2 conceptually replicated this interaction in the context of within-person associations between the occurrence of daily negative events and antisocial behavior. These findings are important in advancing reinforcement sensitivity theory, in operationalizing a particular component of it, and in extending it to reactivity processes in daily life.

  9. Prior probability (the pretest best guess) affects predictive values of diagnostic tests.

    PubMed

    Erb, Hollis N

    2011-06-01

    Authors who publish evaluations of dichotomous (yes/no) diagnostic tests often include the predictive values of their test at a single prior probability (eg, the prevalence of the target disease within the evaluation data set). The objectives of this technical note are to demonstrate why single-probability predictive values are misleading and to show a better way to display positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for a newly evaluated test. Secondly, this technical note will show readers how to calculate predictive values from only sensitivity and specificity for any desired prior probability. As prior probability increases from 0% to 100%, PPV increases from 0% to 100%, but NPV goes in the opposite direction (drops from 100% to 0%). Because prior probabilities vary so greatly across situations, predictive values should be provided in publications for the full range of potential prior probabilities (if provided at all). This is easily done with a 2-curve graph displaying the predictive values (y-axis) against the prior probability (x-axis).

  10. Risk score predicts high‐grade prostate cancer in DNA‐methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies

    PubMed Central

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W.; Stewart, Grant D.; Epstein, Jonathan I.; Harrison, David J.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over‐diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA‐methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation‐positive men, DNA‐methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high‐grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. METHODS Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation‐positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high‐grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. RESULTS Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA‐methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high‐grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation‐positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high‐grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low‐grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision‐making tool for repeat biopsy

  11. When bad moods may not be so bad: Valuing negative affect is associated with weakened affect-health links.

    PubMed

    Luong, Gloria; Wrzus, Cornelia; Wagner, Gert G; Riediger, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Bad moods are considered "bad" not only because they may be aversive experiences in and of themselves, but also because they are associated with poorer psychosocial functioning and health. We propose that people differ in their negative affect valuation (NAV; the extent to which negative affective states are valued as pleasant, useful/helpful, appropriate, and meaningful experiences) and that affect-health links are moderated by NAV. These predictions were tested in a life span sample of 365 participants ranging from 14-88 years of age using reports of momentary negative affect and physical well-being (via experience sampling) and assessments of NAV and psychosocial and physical functioning (via computer-assisted personal interviews and behavioral measures of hand grip strength). Our study demonstrated that the more individuals valued negative affect, the less pronounced (and sometimes even nonexistent) were the associations between everyday experiences of negative affect and a variety of indicators of poorer psychosocial functioning (i.e., emotional health problems, social integration) and physical health (i.e., number of health conditions, health complaints, hand grip strength, momentary physical well-being). Exploratory analyses revealed that valuing positive affect was not associated with the analogous moderating effects as NAV. These findings suggest that it may be particularly important to consider NAV in models of affect-health links.

  12. A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

    PubMed

    Kosinski, Andrzej S

    2013-03-15

    Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting.

  13. Accurate perception of negative emotions predicts functional capacity in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Abram, Samantha V; Karpouzian, Tatiana M; Reilly, James L; Derntl, Birgit; Habel, Ute; Smith, Matthew J

    2014-04-30

    Several studies suggest facial affect perception (FAP) deficits in schizophrenia are linked to poorer social functioning. However, whether reduced functioning is associated with inaccurate perception of specific emotional valence or a global FAP impairment remains unclear. The present study examined whether impairment in the perception of specific emotional valences (positive, negative) and neutrality were uniquely associated with social functioning, using a multimodal social functioning battery. A sample of 59 individuals with schizophrenia and 41 controls completed a computerized FAP task, and measures of functional capacity, social competence, and social attainment. Participants also underwent neuropsychological testing and symptom assessment. Regression analyses revealed that only accurately perceiving negative emotions explained significant variance (7.9%) in functional capacity after accounting for neurocognitive function and symptoms. Partial correlations indicated that accurately perceiving anger, in particular, was positively correlated with functional capacity. FAP for positive, negative, or neutral emotions were not related to social competence or social attainment. Our findings were consistent with prior literature suggesting negative emotions are related to functional capacity in schizophrenia. Furthermore, the observed relationship between perceiving anger and performance of everyday living skills is novel and warrants further exploration.

  14. Positive and negative emotional contexts unevenly predict episodic memory.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Galindo, Joyce Graciela; Cansino, Selene

    2015-09-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the recognition of faces with neutral expressions differs when they are encoded under different emotional contexts (positive, negative or non-emotional). The effects of the emotional valence context on the subsequent memory effect (SME) and the autonomic responses were also examined. Twenty-eight participants performed a betting-game task in which the faces of their virtual opponents were presented in each trial. The probability of winning or losing was manipulated to generate positive or negative contexts, respectively. Additionally, the participants performed the same task without betting as a non-emotional condition. After the encoding phase, an old/new paradigm was performed for the faces of the virtual opponents. The recognition was superior for the faces encoded in the positive contexts than for the faces encoded in the non-emotional contexts. The skin conductance response amplitude was equivalent for both of the emotional contexts. The N170 and P300 components at occipital sites and the frontal slow wave manifested SMEs that were modulated by positive contexts; neither negative nor non-emotional contexts influenced these effects. The behavioral and neurophysiological data demonstrated that positive contexts are stronger predictors of episodic memory than negative or non-emotional contexts.

  15. Genome-based prediction of testcross values in maize.

    PubMed

    Albrecht, Theresa; Wimmer, Valentin; Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Erbe, Malena; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Simianer, Henner; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2011-07-01

    This is the first large-scale experimental study on genome-based prediction of testcross values in an advanced cycle breeding population of maize. The study comprised testcross progenies of 1,380 doubled haploid lines of maize derived from 36 crosses and phenotyped for grain yield and grain dry matter content in seven locations. The lines were genotyped with 1,152 single nucleotide polymorphism markers. Pedigree data were available for three generations. We used best linear unbiased prediction and stratified cross-validation to evaluate the performance of prediction models differing in the modeling of relatedness between inbred lines and in the calculation of genome-based coefficients of similarity. The choice of similarity coefficient did not affect prediction accuracies. Models including genomic information yielded significantly higher prediction accuracies than the model based on pedigree information alone. Average prediction accuracies based on genomic data were high even for a complex trait like grain yield (0.72-0.74) when the cross-validation scheme allowed for a high degree of relatedness between the estimation and the test set. When predictions were performed across distantly related families, prediction accuracies decreased significantly (0.47-0.48). Prediction accuracies decreased with decreasing sample size but were still high when the population size was halved (0.67-0.69). The results from this study are encouraging with respect to genome-based prediction of the genetic value of untested lines in advanced cycle breeding populations and the implementation of genomic selection in the breeding process.

  16. When a negative weak value -1 plays the counterpart of a probability 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokota, Kazuhiro; Imoto, Nobuyuki

    2016-12-01

    When the weak value of a projector is 1, a quantum system behaves as in that eigenstate with probability 1. By definition, however, the weak value may take an anomalous value lying outside the range of probability like -1. From the viewpoint of a physical effect, we show that such a negative weak value of -1 can be regarded as the counterpart of the ordinary value of 1. Using photons, we experimentally verify it as the symmetrical shift in polarization depending on the weak value given by pre-postselection of the path state. Unlike observation of a weak value as an ensemble average via weak measurements, the effect of a weak value is definitely confirmed in Hong-Ou-Mandel effect: the symmetrical shift corresponding to the weak value can be directly observed as the rotation angle of a half wave plate.

  17. Phosphorene/rhenium disulfide heterojunction-based negative differential resistance device for multi-valued logic.

    PubMed

    Shim, Jaewoo; Oh, Seyong; Kang, Dong-Ho; Jo, Seo-Hyeon; Ali, Muhammad Hasnain; Choi, Woo-Young; Heo, Keun; Jeon, Jaeho; Lee, Sungjoo; Kim, Minwoo; Song, Young Jae; Park, Jin-Hong

    2016-11-07

    Recently, negative differential resistance devices have attracted considerable attention due to their folded current-voltage characteristic, which presents multiple threshold voltage values. Because of this remarkable property, studies associated with the negative differential resistance devices have been explored for realizing multi-valued logic applications. Here we demonstrate a negative differential resistance device based on a phosphorene/rhenium disulfide (BP/ReS2) heterojunction that is formed by type-III broken-gap band alignment, showing high peak-to-valley current ratio values of 4.2 and 6.9 at room temperature and 180 K, respectively. Also, the carrier transport mechanism of the BP/ReS2 negative differential resistance device is investigated in detail by analysing the tunnelling and diffusion currents at various temperatures with the proposed analytic negative differential resistance device model. Finally, we demonstrate a ternary inverter as a multi-valued logic application. This study of a two-dimensional material heterojunction is a step forward toward future multi-valued logic device research.

  18. Phosphorene/rhenium disulfide heterojunction-based negative differential resistance device for multi-valued logic

    PubMed Central

    Shim, Jaewoo; Oh, Seyong; Kang, Dong-Ho; Jo, Seo-Hyeon; Ali, Muhammad Hasnain; Choi, Woo-Young; Heo, Keun; Jeon, Jaeho; Lee, Sungjoo; Kim, Minwoo; Song, Young Jae; Park, Jin-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Recently, negative differential resistance devices have attracted considerable attention due to their folded current–voltage characteristic, which presents multiple threshold voltage values. Because of this remarkable property, studies associated with the negative differential resistance devices have been explored for realizing multi-valued logic applications. Here we demonstrate a negative differential resistance device based on a phosphorene/rhenium disulfide (BP/ReS2) heterojunction that is formed by type-III broken-gap band alignment, showing high peak-to-valley current ratio values of 4.2 and 6.9 at room temperature and 180 K, respectively. Also, the carrier transport mechanism of the BP/ReS2 negative differential resistance device is investigated in detail by analysing the tunnelling and diffusion currents at various temperatures with the proposed analytic negative differential resistance device model. Finally, we demonstrate a ternary inverter as a multi-valued logic application. This study of a two-dimensional material heterojunction is a step forward toward future multi-valued logic device research. PMID:27819264

  19. Value Preferences Predicting Narcissistic Personality Traits in Young Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gungor, Ibrahim Halil; Eksi, Halil; Aricak, Osman Tolga

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed at showing how the value preferences of young adults could predict the narcissistic characteristics of young adults according to structural equation modeling. 133 female (59.6%) and 90 male (40.4%), total 223 young adults participated the study (average age: 25.66, ranging from 20 to 38). Ratio group sampling method was used while…

  20. Value of Bulk Heat Flux Parameterizations for Ocean SST Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    Value of bulk heat flux parameterizations for ocean SST prediction Alan J. Wallcraft a,⁎, A. Birol Kara a, Harley E. Hurlburt a, Eric P. Chassignet b...G., Doney, S.C., McWilliams , J.C., 1997. Sensitivity to surface forcing and boundary layer mixing in a global ocean model: annual-mean climatology. J

  1. Prediction of Elementary School Children's Externalizing Problem Behaviors from Attentional and Behavioral Regulation and Negative Emotionality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisenberg, Nancy; Guthrie, Ivanna K.; Fabes, Richard A.; Shepard, Stephanie; Losoya, Sandra; Murphy, Bridget C.; Jones, Sarah; Paulin, Rick; Reiser, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Examined the moderating role of individual differences in negative emotionality in the relations of behavioral and attentional regulation to externalizing problem behaviors. Found that at two ages behavioral dysregulation predicted externalizing behavior problems for children both high and low in negative emotionality, whereas prediction of…

  2. Fluctuations in negative emotions predict binge eating both in women and men: An experience sampling study.

    PubMed

    Kukk, Katrin; Akkermann, Kirsti

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the associations between emotional fluctuations and emotion regulation difficulties in predicting binge eating and overeating episodes using the experience sampling method among 97 women and 61 men. Among women, fluctuations in negative emotion, emotion regulation difficulties, restrained eating, and the interaction of negative emotion fluctuations and emotion regulation difficulties predicted binge eating. Among men, trait impulsivity and fluctuations in negative emotion predicted binge eating. However, overeating did not associate with aforementioned aspects. Results suggest that fluctuations in negative emotions should be studied in the context of emotion regulation difficulties.

  3. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  4. Observed Measures of Negative Parenting Predict Brain Development during Adolescence.

    PubMed

    Whittle, Sarah; Vijayakumar, Nandita; Dennison, Meg; Schwartz, Orli; Simmons, Julian G; Sheeber, Lisa; Allen, Nicholas B

    2016-01-01

    Limited attention has been directed toward the influence of non-abusive parenting behaviour on brain structure in adolescents. It has been suggested that environmental influences during this period are likely to impact the way that the brain develops over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between aggressive and positive parenting behaviors on brain development from early to late adolescence, and in turn, psychological and academic functioning during late adolescence, using a multi-wave longitudinal design. Three hundred and sixty seven magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained over three time points from 166 adolescents (11-20 years). At the first time point, observed measures of maternal aggressive and positive behaviors were obtained. At the final time point, measures of psychological and academic functioning were obtained. Results indicated that a higher frequency of maternal aggressive behavior was associated with alterations in the development of right superior frontal and lateral parietal cortical thickness, and of nucleus accumbens volume, in males. Development of the superior frontal cortex in males mediated the relationship between maternal aggressive behaviour and measures of late adolescent functioning. We suggest that our results support an association between negative parenting and adolescent functioning, which may be mediated by immature or delayed brain maturation.

  5. Observed Measures of Negative Parenting Predict Brain Development during Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Whittle, Sarah; Vijayakumar, Nandita; Dennison, Meg; Schwartz, Orli; Simmons, Julian G.; Sheeber, Lisa; Allen, Nicholas B.

    2016-01-01

    Limited attention has been directed toward the influence of non-abusive parenting behaviour on brain structure in adolescents. It has been suggested that environmental influences during this period are likely to impact the way that the brain develops over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between aggressive and positive parenting behaviors on brain development from early to late adolescence, and in turn, psychological and academic functioning during late adolescence, using a multi-wave longitudinal design. Three hundred and sixty seven magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained over three time points from 166 adolescents (11–20 years). At the first time point, observed measures of maternal aggressive and positive behaviors were obtained. At the final time point, measures of psychological and academic functioning were obtained. Results indicated that a higher frequency of maternal aggressive behavior was associated with alterations in the development of right superior frontal and lateral parietal cortical thickness, and of nucleus accumbens volume, in males. Development of the superior frontal cortex in males mediated the relationship between maternal aggressive behaviour and measures of late adolescent functioning. We suggest that our results support an association between negative parenting and adolescent functioning, which may be mediated by immature or delayed brain maturation. PMID:26824348

  6. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  7. Regulatory Forum Opinion Piece*: The Value of Publishing Negative Scientific Study Data.

    PubMed

    Boorman, Gary A; Foster, John R; Laast, Victoria A; Francke, Sabine

    2015-10-01

    Historically it has been easier to publish positive scientific results than negative data not supporting the research hypothesis. This appears to be increasing, with fewer negative studies appearing in the literature across many disciplines. Failure to recognize the value of negative results has important implications for the toxicology community. Implications include perpetuating scientific fields based upon selective or occasionally erroneous, positive results. One example is decreased vaccination rates and increased measles infections that can lead to childhood mortality following one erroneous positive study linking vaccination to adverse effects despite multiple negative studies. Publication of negative data that challenges existing paradigms enhances progress by stopping further investment in scientifically barren topics, decreases the use of animals, and focuses research in more fruitful areas. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) publishes both positive and negative rodent data. Retrospective analysis of the NTP database has provided insights on the carcinogenic process and in the gradual acceptance of using fewer animals in safety studies. This article proposes that careful publication of both positive and negative data can enhance product safety assessment, add robustness to safety determinations in the regulatory decision-making process, and should be actively encouraged by those determining journal editorial policy.

  8. LMO2-negative Expression Predicts the Presence of MYC Translocations in Aggressive B-Cell Lymphomas.

    PubMed

    Colomo, Luis; Vazquez, Ivonne; Papaleo, Natalia; Espinet, Blanca; Ferrer, Anna; Franco, Catalina; Comerma, Laura; Hernandez, Silvia; Calvo, Xavier; Salar, Antonio; Climent, Fina; Mate, José Luis; Forcada, Pilar; Mozos, Anna; Nonell, Lara; Martinez, Antonio; Carrio, Anna; Costa, Dolors; Dlouhy, Ivan; Salaverria, Itziar; Martin-Subero, Jose Ignacio; Lopez-Guillermo, Armando; Valera, Alexandra; Campo, Elias

    2017-03-10

    MYC translocation is a defining feature of Burkitt lymphoma (BL), and the new category of high-grade B-cell lymphomas with MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6 translocations, and occurs in 6% to 15% of diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs). The low incidence of MYC translocations in DLBCL makes the genetic study of all these lymphomas cumbersome. Strategies based on an initial immunophenotypic screening to select cases with a high probability of carrying the translocation may be useful. LMO2 is a germinal center marker expressed in most lymphomas originated in these cells. Mining gene expression profiling studies, we observed LMO2 downregulation in BL and large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) with MYC translocations, and postulated that LMO2 protein expression could assist to identify such cases. We analyzed LMO2 protein expression in 46 BLs and 284 LBCL. LMO2 was expressed in 1/46 (2%) BL cases, 146/268 (54.5%) DLBCL cases, and 2/16 (12.5%) high-grade B-cell lymphoma cases with MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6 translocations. All BLs carried MYC translocation (P<0.001), whereas LMO2 was only positive in 6/42 (14%) LBCL with MYC translocation (P<0.001). The relationship between LMO2 negativity and MYC translocation was further analyzed in different subsets of tumors according to CD10 expression and cell of origin. Lack of LMO2 expression was associated with the detection of MYC translocations with high sensitivity (87%), specificity (87%), positive predictive value and negative predictive value (74% and 94%, respectively), and accuracy (87%) in CD10 LBCL. Comparing LMO2 and MYC protein expression, all statistic measures of performance of LMO2 surpassed MYC in CD10 LBCL. These findings suggest that LMO2 loss may be a good predictor for the presence of MYC translocation in CD10 LBCL.

  9. Suboptimal Choice in Pigeons: Stimulus Value Predicts Choice over Frequencies

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Alexandria R.; Chow, Jonathan J.; Beckmann, Joshua S.; Zentall, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior. PMID:27441394

  10. Trait Reappraisal Predicts Affective Reactivity to Daily Positive and Negative Events

    PubMed Central

    Gunaydin, Gul; Selcuk, Emre; Ong, Anthony D.

    2016-01-01

    Past research on emotion regulation has provided evidence that cognitive reappraisal predicts reactivity to affective stimuli and challenge tests in laboratory settings. However, little is known about how trait reappraisal might contribute to affective reactivity to everyday positive and negative events. Using a large, life-span sample of adults (N = 1755), the present study addressed this important gap in the literature. Respondents completed a measure of trait reappraisal and reported on their daily experiences of positive and negative events and positive and negative affect for eight consecutive days. Results showed that trait reappraisal predicted lower increases in negative affect in response to daily negative events and lower increases in positive affect in response to daily positive events. These findings advance our understanding of the role of reappraisal in emotion regulation by showing how individual differences in the use of this strategy relate to emotional reactions to both positive and negative events outside the laboratory. PMID:27445954

  11. Helplessness in Early Childhood: Prediction of Symptoms Associated with Depression and Negative Self-Worth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kistner, Janet A.; Ziegert, Dannah I.; Castro, Rafael; Robertson, Bruce

    2001-01-01

    Examined relationship of helplessness exhibited in 112 kindergarten children's responses to a challenging, developmentally appropriate task with depression and negative self-worth 5 years later. Found that helplessness in kindergarten predicted more depressive symptoms, as reported by children and their teachers, and more negative feelings of…

  12. The Bungee Jumper: A Comparison of Predicted and Measured Values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biezeveld, Hubert

    2003-04-01

    The greater-than-g acceleration of a bungee jumper discussed in a previous article in this journal by Kagan and Kott led to many lively discussions among Dutch physics teachers. These inspired me to look for an inexpensive experimental setup, suitable for use in a high school physics class, that can be used to confirm that indeed the acceleration is greater than g. In this paper I describe an exercise to compare the predicted and the measured graphs for the displacement y(t) of the jumper and the force Fb(t) exerted by the bungee on the bridge to which it is fastened. In my apparatus, the "bungee" consists of a light chain and the "jumper" is a small piece of brass. Data collection and the calculation of predicted values were carried out using Coach.2 The analysis reliably leads to the conclusion that the acceleration of the falling jumper does indeed exceed g.

  13. [NIRS for Predicting Nutritive Value of Elymus sibiricus].

    PubMed

    Yan, Xu; Bai, Shi-qie; Yan, Jia-jun; Hu, Chao; Li, Da-xu; You, Ming-hong; Zhang, Yu; Dao, Zhi-xue; Zhang, Chang-bing; Gan, You-min

    2015-08-01

    Siberian wildrye (Elymus sibiricus L.) is one of the predominant pasture species in Qinghai-Tibet plateau of China. It supplies a large number of fodders to domestic animals in spring and winter, and provides a large proportion of the summer and autumn grazing in these alpine regions. Crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) are the most important aspects of nutritive value of forages. A successful application of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in combination with partial least square regression (PLSR) for the determination of four parameters (CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD) of Siberian wildrye was developed. The standard errors of calibration (SEC, %DM) and Rcal(2) values (in parentheses) were 0.3299(0.9945), 0.7799(0.9499), 1.3430(0.9133), and 1.3762(0.9822) for CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD equations, respectively. The standard errors of prediction (SEP, %DM) and Rval(2) values (in parentheses) were 0.3621(0.9938), 0.7878(0.9449), 1.3852(0.8907), and 1.4303(0.9790) for CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD, respectively. A good correlation (r>0.9438) was found between results from NIRS and the traditional chemical method, and residual predictive deviation (RPD) ranged from 3.02 to 12.63. It was concluded that NIR spectroscopic technique associated with chemometrics is sufficiently sensitive to allow the accurate prediction of the concentrations of compo nents (CP, ADF and NDF) and IVDMD of Siberian wildrye.

  14. Expectation Value Theorem for Thermo Vacuum States of Optical Chaotic Field and Negative-Binomial Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Zhi-Long; Fan, Hong-Yi

    2016-07-01

    For the density operator (mixed state) describing chaotic light and negative-binomial field there exist the corresponding thermal vacuum state (pure state) in the real-fictitious space. Using the method of integration within ordered product of operators we find the expectation value theorem in these two thermo vacuum states respectively. The thermal average theorem of translation operator is also deduced. Application of the new thermo vacuum state in calculating photon number disturibution and fluctuation and thermal average is presented.

  15. Solution Path for Pin-SVM Classifiers With Positive and Negative τ Values.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaolin; Shi, Lei; Suykens, Johan A K

    2016-04-08

    Applying the pinball loss in a support vector machine (SVM) classifier results in pin-SVM. The pinball loss is characterized by a parameter τ. Its value is related to the quantile level and different τ values are suitable for different problems. In this paper, we establish an algorithm to find the entire solution path for pin-SVM with different τ values. This algorithm is based on the fact that the optimal solution to pin-SVM is continuous and piecewise linear with respect to τ. We also show that the nonnegativity constraint on τ is not necessary, i.e., τ can be extended to negative values. First, in some applications, a negative τ leads to better accuracy. Second, τ = -1 corresponds to a simple solution that links SVM and the classical kernel rule. The solution for τ = -1 can be obtained directly and then be used as a starting point of the solution path. The proposed method efficiently traverses τ values through the solution path, and then achieves good performance by a suitable τ. In particular, $τ = 0$ corresponds to C-SVM, meaning that the traversal algorithm can output a result at least as good as C-SVM with respect to validation error.

  16. Monoamine Oxidase A (MAOA) Genotype Predicts Greater Aggression Through Impulsive Reactivity to Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Chester, David S.; DeWall, C. Nathan; Derefinko, Karen J.; Estus, Steven; Peters, Jessica R.; Lynam, Donald R.; Jiang, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Low functioning MAOA genotypes have been reliably linked to increased reactive aggression, yet the psychological mechanisms of this effect remain largely unknown. The low functioning MAOA genotype’s established link to diminished inhibition and greater reactivity to conditions of negative affect suggest that negative urgency, the tendency to act impulsively in the context of negative affect, may fill this mediating role. Such MAOA carriers may have higher negative urgency, which may in turn predict greater aggressive responses to provocation. To test these hypotheses, 277 female and male participants were genotyped for an MAOA SNP yet to be linked to aggression (rs1465108), and then reported their negative urgency and past aggressive behavior. We replicated the effect of the low functioning MAOA genotype on heightened aggression, which was mediated by greater negative urgency. These results suggest that disrupted serotonergic systems predispose individuals towards aggressive behavior by increasing impulsive reactivity to negative affect. PMID:25637908

  17. Monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) genotype predicts greater aggression through impulsive reactivity to negative affect.

    PubMed

    Chester, David S; DeWall, C Nathan; Derefinko, Karen J; Estus, Steven; Peters, Jessica R; Lynam, Donald R; Jiang, Yang

    2015-04-15

    Low functioning MAOA genotypes have been reliably linked to increased reactive aggression, yet the psychological mechanisms of this effect remain largely unknown. The low functioning MAOA genotype's established link to diminished inhibition and greater reactivity to conditions of negative affect suggest that negative urgency, the tendency to act impulsively in the context of negative affect, may fill this mediating role. Such MAOA carriers may have higher negative urgency, which may in turn predict greater aggressive responses to provocation. To test these hypotheses, 277 female and male participants were genotyped for an MAOA SNP yet to be linked to aggression (rs1465108), and then reported their negative urgency and past aggressive behavior. We replicated the effect of the low functioning MAOA genotype on heightened aggression, which was mediated by greater negative urgency. These results suggest that disrupted serotonergic systems predispose individuals towards aggressive behavior by increasing impulsive reactivity to negative affect.

  18. Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models.

    PubMed

    Winsberg, Eric

    2012-06-01

    Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science-that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily to overcoming them. But even as these technical challenges are being met, a number of persistent conceptual difficulties remain. So why is UQ so important in climate science? UQ, I would like to argue, is first and foremost a tool for communicating knowledge from experts to policy makers in a way that is meant to be free from the influence of social and ethical values. But the standard ways of using probabilities to separate ethical and social values from scientific practice cannot be applied in a great deal of climate modeling, because the roles of values in creating the models cannot be discerned after the fact-the models are too complex and the result of too much distributed epistemic labor. I argue, therefore, that typical approaches for handling ethical/social values in science do not work well here.

  19. Assessing a surrogate predictive value: a causal inference approach.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Ariel; Van der Elst, Wim; Meyvisch, Paul

    2017-03-30

    Several methods have been developed for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints within the causal-inference and meta-analytic paradigms. In both paradigms, much effort has been made to assess the capacity of the surrogate to predict the causal treatment effect on the true endpoint. In the present work, the so-called surrogate predictive function (SPF) is introduced for that purpose, using potential outcomes. The relationship between the SPF and the individual causal association, a new metric of surrogacy recently proposed in the literature, is studied in detail. It is shown that the SPF, in conjunction with the individual causal association, can offer an appealing quantification of the surrogate predictive value. However, neither the distribution of the potential outcomes nor the SPF are identifiable from the data. These identifiability issues are tackled using a two-step procedure. In the first step, the region of the parametric space of the distribution of the potential outcomes, compatible with the data at hand, is geometrically characterized. Further, in a second step, a Monte Carlo approach is used to study the behavior of the SPF on the previous region. The method is illustrated using data from a clinical trial involving schizophrenic patients and a newly developed and user friendly R package Surrogate is provided to carry out the validation exercise. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. [Predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden in present].

    PubMed

    Kulyova, S A; Karitsky, A P

    2014-01-01

    Today approximately 70% of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma can be cured with the combined-modality therapy. Tumor burden, the importance of which was demonstrated 15 years ago for the first time, is a powerful prognostic factor. Data of literature of representations on predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden are shown in the article. The difficult immunological relations between tumor cells and reactive ones lead to development of the main symptoms. Nevertheless, the collective sign of tumor burden shows the greatest influence on survival and on probability of resistance, which relative risk can be predicted on this variable and treatment program. Patients with bulky disease need escalated therapy with high-dose chemotherapy. Integration into predictive models of the variable will change an expected contribution of clinical and laboratory parameters in the regression analyses constructed on patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma. Today the role of diagnostic functional methods, in particular a positron emission tomography, for metabolic active measurement is conducted which allows excluding a reactive component.

  1. Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action.

    PubMed

    Bissonette, Gregory B; Roesch, Matthew R

    2016-01-01

    Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum.

  2. Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action

    PubMed Central

    Roesch, Matthew R.

    2017-01-01

    Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum. PMID:26276036

  3. Mediofrontal event-related potentials in response to positive, negative and unsigned prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Sambrook, Thomas D; Goslin, Jeremy

    2014-08-01

    Reinforcement learning models make use of reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between an expected and obtained reward. There is evidence that the brain computes RPEs, but an outstanding question is whether positive RPEs ("better than expected") and negative RPEs ("worse than expected") are represented in a single integrated system. An electrophysiological component, feedback related negativity, has been claimed to encode an RPE but its relative sensitivity to the utility of positive and negative RPEs remains unclear. This study explored the question by varying the utility of positive and negative RPEs in a design that controlled for other closely related properties of feedback and could distinguish utility from salience. It revealed a mediofrontal sensitivity to utility, for positive RPEs at 275-310ms and for negative RPEs at 310-390ms. These effects were preceded and succeeded by a response consistent with an unsigned prediction error, or "salience" coding.

  4. The interplay of personality and negative comments about appearance in predicting body image.

    PubMed

    Kvalem, Ingela Lundin; von Soest, Tilmann; Roald, Helge E; Skolleborg, Knut Chr

    2006-09-01

    This study investigates how personality traits in combination with frequency of and emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance while growing up are related to appearance evaluation and orientation among adult women. Nine hundred and seven participants from a representative sample of Norwegian women aged 22-55, answered questions measuring body image, personality (Big Five), and history of experiencing negative comments about appearance. Results indicated that only emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance significantly predicted both appearance evaluation and orientation, while frequency of negative comments did not. Being extrovert predicted more positive appearance evaluation and being more appearance oriented than being introvert. Scoring high on neuroticism was related to negative appearance evaluation and high appearance orientation. The findings demonstrate the importance of differentiating between the frequency and the emotional impact of teasing as well as including personality traits when studying body image.

  5. Interpretation of Spirometry: Selection of Predicted Values and Defining Abnormality.

    PubMed

    Chhabra, S K

    2015-01-01

    Spirometry is the most frequently performed investigation to evaluate pulmonary function. It provides clinically useful information on the mechanical properties of the lung and the thoracic cage and aids in taking management-related decisions in a wide spectrum of diseases and disorders. Few measurements in medicine are so dependent on factors related to equipment, operator and the patient. Good spirometry requires quality assured measurements and a systematic approach to interpretation. Standard guidelines on the technical aspects of equipment and their calibration as well as the test procedure have been developed and revised from time-to-time. Strict compliance with standardisation guidelines ensures quality control. Interpretation of spirometry data is based only on two basic measurements--the forced vital capacity (FVC) and the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and their ratio, FEV1/FVC. A meaningful and clinically useful interpretation of the measured data requires a systematic approach and consideration of several important issues. Central to interpretation is the understanding of the development and application of prediction equations. Selection of prediction equations that are appropriate for the ethnic origin of the patient is vital to avoid erroneous interpretation. Defining abnormal values is a debatable but critical aspect of spirometry. A statistically valid definition of the lower limits of normal has been advocated as the better method over the more commonly used approach of defining abnormality as a fixed percentage of the predicted value. Spirometry rarely provides a specific diagnosis. Examination of the flow-volume curve and the measured data provides information to define patterns of ventilatory impairment. Spirometry must be interpreted in conjunction with clinical information including results of other investigations.

  6. Predicting Negative Emotions Based on Mobile Phone Usage Patterns: An Exploratory Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Pei-Ching; Chang, Chia-Chi; Chiang, Jung-Hsien; Chen, Ying-Yeh

    2016-01-01

    Background Prompt recognition and intervention of negative emotions is crucial for patients with depression. Mobile phones and mobile apps are suitable technologies that can be used to recognize negative emotions and intervene if necessary. Objective Mobile phone usage patterns can be associated with concurrent emotional states. The objective of this study is to adapt machine-learning methods to analyze such patterns for the prediction of negative emotion. Methods We developed an Android-based app to capture emotional states and mobile phone usage patterns, which included call logs (and use of apps). Visual analog scales (VASs) were used to report negative emotions in dimensions of depression, anxiety, and stress. In the system-training phase, participants were requested to tag their emotions for 14 consecutive days. Five feature-selection methods were used to determine individual usage patterns and four machine-learning methods were tested. Finally, rank product scoring was used to select the best combination to construct the prediction model. In the system evaluation phase, participants were then requested to verify the predicted negative emotions for at least 5 days. Results Out of 40 enrolled healthy participants, we analyzed data from 28 participants, including 30% (9/28) women with a mean (SD) age of 29.2 (5.1) years with sufficient emotion tags. The combination of time slots of 2 hours, greedy forward selection, and Naïve Bayes method was chosen for the prediction model. We further validated the personalized models in 18 participants who performed at least 5 days of model evaluation. Overall, the predictive accuracy for negative emotions was 86.17%. Conclusion We developed a system capable of predicting negative emotions based on mobile phone usage patterns. This system has potential for ecological momentary intervention (EMI) for depressive disorders by automatically recognizing negative emotions and providing people with preventive treatments before it

  7. Negative emotions predict elevated interleukin-6 in the United States but not in Japan.

    PubMed

    Miyamoto, Yuri; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Coe, Christopher L; Curhan, Katherine B; Levine, Cynthia S; Markus, Hazel Rose; Park, Jiyoung; Kitayama, Shinobu; Kawakami, Norito; Karasawa, Mayumi; Love, Gayle D; Ryff, Carol D

    2013-11-01

    Previous studies conducted in Western cultures have shown that negative emotions predict higher levels of pro-inflammatory biomarkers, specifically interleukin-6 (IL-6). This link between negative emotions and IL-6 may be specific to Western cultures where negative emotions are perceived to be problematic and thus may not extend to Eastern cultures where negative emotions are seen as acceptable and normal. Using samples of 1044 American and 382 Japanese middle-aged and older adults, we investigated whether the relationship between negative emotions and IL-6 varies by cultural context. Negative emotions predicted higher IL-6 among American adults, whereas no association was evident among Japanese adults. Furthermore, the interaction between culture and negative emotions remained even after controlling for demographic variables, psychological factors (positive emotions, neuroticism, extraversion), health behaviors (smoking status, alcohol consumption), and health status (chronic conditions, BMI). These findings highlight the role of cultural context in shaping how negative emotions affect inflammatory physiology and underscore the importance of cultural ideas and practices relevant to negative emotions for understanding of the interplay between psychology, physiology, and health.

  8. Quantifying the Value of Biomarkers for Predicting Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, Noreen; Glei, Dana A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In light of widespread interest in the prognostic value of biomarkers, we apply three discrimination measures to evaluate the incremental value of biomarkers –beyond self-reported measures – for predicting all-cause mortality. We assess whether all three measures –AUC, NRI(>0), and IDI – lead to the same conclusions. Methods We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (n = 639, aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006, with mortality follow-up through 2011). We estimate age-specific mortality using a Gompertz hazard model. Results The broad conclusions are consistent across the three discrimination measures and support the inclusion of biomarkers, particularly inflammatory markers, in household surveys. Although the rank ordering of individual biomarkers varies across discrimination measures, the following is true for all three: interleukin-6 is the strongest predictor, the other three inflammatory markers make the top 10, and homocysteine ranks second or third. Conclusions The consistency of most of our findings across metrics should provide comfort to researchers using discrimination measures to evaluate the prognostic value of biomarkers. However, because the degree of consistency varies with the level of detail inherent in the research question, we recommend that researchers confirm results with multiple discrimination measures. PMID:26419291

  9. External validation of a prediction model for pathologic N2 among patients with a negative mediastinum by positron emission tomography

    PubMed Central

    Backhus, Leah M.; Varghese, Thomas K.; Manning, James P.; Cheng, Aaron M.; Mulligan, Michael S.; Wood, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Background A prediction model for pathologic N2 (pN2) among lung cancer patients with a negative mediastinum by positron emission tomography (PET) was recently internally validated. Our study sought to determine the external validity of that model. Methods A cohort study [2005-2013] was performed of lung cancer patients with a negative mediastinum by PET. Previously published model coefficients were used to estimate the probability of pN2 based on tumor location and size, nodal enlargement by computed tomography (CT), maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the primary tumor, N1 disease by PET, and pretreatment histology. Results Among 239 patients, 18 had pN2 [7.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.5-12%]. Model discrimination was excellent (c-statistic 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75-0.85) and the model fit the data well (P=0.191). The accuracy of the model was as follows: sensitivity 100%, 95% CI: 81-100%; specificity 49%, 95% CI: 42-56%; positive predictive value (PPV) 14%, 95% CI: 8-21%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 100%, 95% CI: 97-100%. CI inspection revealed a significantly higher c-statistic in this external validation cohort compared to the internal validation cohort. The model’s apparently poor specificity for patient selection is in fact significantly better than usual care (i.e., aggressive but allowable guideline concordant staging) and minimum guideline mandated selection criteria for invasive staging. Conclusions A prediction model for pN2 is externally valid. The high NPV of this model may allow pulmonologists and thoracic surgeons to more comfortably minimize the number of invasive procedures performed among patients with a negative mediastinum by PET. PMID:25973222

  10. Preoperative cow-side lactatemia measurement predicts negative outcome in Holstein dairy cattle with right abomasal disorders.

    PubMed

    Boulay, G; Francoz, D; Doré, E; Dufour, S; Veillette, M; Badillo, M; Bélanger, A-M; Buczinski, S

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of the current study were (1) to determine the gain in prognostic accuracy of preoperative l-lactate concentration (LAC) measured on farm on cows with right displaced abomasum (RDA) or abomasal volvulus (AV) for predicting negative outcome; and (2) to suggest clinically relevant thresholds for such use. A cohort of 102 cows with on-farm surgical diagnostic of RDA or AV was obtained from June 2009 through December 2011. Blood was drawn from coccygeal vessels before surgery and plasma LAC was immediately measured by using a portable clinical analyzer. Dairy producers were interviewed by phone 30 d following surgery and the outcome was determined: a positive outcome if the owner was satisfied of the overall evolution 30 d postoperatively, and a negative outcome if the cow was culled, died, or if the owner reported being unsatisfied 30 d postoperatively. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve for LAC was 0.92 and was significantly greater than the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of heart rate (HR; 0.77), indicating that LAC, in general, performed better than HR to predict a negative outcome. Furthermore, the ability to predict a negative outcome was significantly improved when LAC measurement was considered in addition to the already available HR data (area under the curve: 0.93 and 95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.99). Important inflection points of the misclassification cost term function were noted at thresholds of 2 and 6 mmol/L, suggesting the potential utility of these cut-points. The 2 and 6 mmol/L thresholds had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting a negative outcome of 76.2, 82.7, 53.3, and 93.1%, and of 28.6, 97.5, 75, and 84%, respectively. In terms of clinical interpretation, LAC ≤2 mmol/L appeared to be a good indicator of positive outcome and could be used to support a surgical treatment decision. The

  11. EndoPredict predicts for the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Bertucci, François; Finetti, Pascal; Viens, Patrice; Birnbaum, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    The EndoPredict (EP) signature is a prognostic 11-gene expression signature specifically developed in ER+/HER2- node-negative/positive breast cancer. It is associated with relapse-free survival in patients treated with adjuvant hormone therapy, suggesting that EP low-risk patients could be treated with adjuvant hormone therapy alone whereas high-risk patients would deserve addition of adjuvant chemotherapy. Thus, it is important to determine whether EP high-risk patients are or are not more sensitive to chemotherapy than low-risk patients. Here, we have assessed the EP predictive value for pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ER+/HER2- breast cancer. We gathered gene expression and histoclinical data of 553 pre-treatment ER+/HER2- breast carcinomas treated with anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We searched for correlation between the pathological complete response (pCR) and the EP score-based classification. The overall pCR rate was 12%. Fifty-one percent of samples were classified as low-risk according to the EP score and 49% as high-risk. EP classification was associated with a pCR rate of 7% in the low-risk group and 17% in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the EP score remained significantly associated with pCR. Many genes upregulated in the high-risk tumours were involved in cell proliferation, whereas many genes upregulated in the low-risk tumours were involved in ER-signalling and stroma. Despite higher chemosensitivity, the high-risk group was associated with worse disease-free survival. In conclusion, EP high-risk ER+/HER2- breast cancers are more likely to respond to anthracycline-based chemotherapy.

  12. Predicting complex syntactic structure in real time: Processing of negative sentences in Russian.

    PubMed

    Kazanina, Nina

    2016-09-19

    In Russian negative sentences the verb's direct object may appear either in the accusative case, which is licensed by the verb (as is common cross-linguistically), or in the genitive case, which is licensed by the negation (Russian-specific "genitive-of-negation" phenomenon). Such sentences were used to investigate whether case marking is employed for anticipating syntactic structure, and whether lexical heads other than the verb can be predicted on the basis of a case-marked noun phrase. Experiment 1, a completion task, confirmed that genitive-of-negation is part of Russian speakers' active grammatical repertoire. In Experiments 2 and 3, the genitive/accusative case manipulation on the preverbal object led to shorter reading times at the negation and verb in the genitive versus accusative condition. Furthermore, Experiment 3 manipulated linear order of the direct object and the negated verb in order to distinguish whether the abovementioned facilitatory effect was predictive or integrative in nature, and concluded that the parser actively predicts a verb and (otherwise optional) negation on the basis of a preceding genitive-marked object. Similarly to a head-final language, case-marking information on preverbal noun phrases (NPs) is used by the parser to enable incremental structure building in a free-word-order language such as Russian.

  13. Negative example selection for protein function prediction: the NoGO database.

    PubMed

    Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Bonneau, Richard; Shasha, Dennis

    2014-06-01

    Negative examples - genes that are known not to carry out a given protein function - are rarely recorded in genome and proteome annotation databases, such as the Gene Ontology database. Negative examples are required, however, for several of the most powerful machine learning methods for integrative protein function prediction. Most protein function prediction efforts have relied on a variety of heuristics for the choice of negative examples. Determining the accuracy of methods for negative example prediction is itself a non-trivial task, given that the Open World Assumption as applied to gene annotations rules out many traditional validation metrics. We present a rigorous comparison of these heuristics, utilizing a temporal holdout, and a novel evaluation strategy for negative examples. We add to this comparison several algorithms adapted from Positive-Unlabeled learning scenarios in text-classification, which are the current state of the art methods for generating negative examples in low-density annotation contexts. Lastly, we present two novel algorithms of our own construction, one based on empirical conditional probability, and the other using topic modeling applied to genes and annotations. We demonstrate that our algorithms achieve significantly fewer incorrect negative example predictions than the current state of the art, using multiple benchmarks covering multiple organisms. Our methods may be applied to generate negative examples for any type of method that deals with protein function, and to this end we provide a database of negative examples in several well-studied organisms, for general use (The NoGO database, available at: bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/nogo.html).

  14. Brief optogenetic inhibition of dopamine neurons mimics endogenous negative reward prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Chun Yun; Esber, Guillem R; Marrero-Garcia, Yasmin; Yau, Hau-Jie; Bonci, Antonello; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    Correlative studies have strongly linked phasic changes in dopamine activity with reward prediction error signaling. But causal evidence that these brief changes in firing actually serve as error signals to drive associative learning is more tenuous. While there is direct evidence that brief increases can substitute for positive prediction errors, there is no comparable evidence that similarly brief pauses can substitute for negative prediction errors. Lacking such evidence, the effect of increases in firing could reflect novelty or salience, variables also correlated with dopamine activity. Here we provide such evidence, showing in a modified Pavlovian over-expectation task that brief pauses in the firing of dopamine neurons in rat ventral tegmental area at the time of reward are sufficient to mimic the effects of endogenous negative prediction errors. These results support the proposal that brief changes in the firing of dopamine neurons serve as full-fledged bidirectional prediction error signals. PMID:26642092

  15. Value-at-risk prediction using context modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denecker, K.; van Assche, S.; Crombez, J.; Vander Vennet, R.; Lemahieu, I.

    2001-04-01

    In financial market risk measurement, Value-at-Risk (VaR) techniques have proven to be a very useful and popular tool. Unfortunately, most VaR estimation models suffer from major drawbacks: the lognormal (Gaussian) modeling of the returns does not take into account the observed fat tail distribution and the non-stationarity of the financial instruments severely limits the efficiency of the VaR predictions. In this paper, we present a new approach to VaR estimation which is based on ideas from the field of information theory and lossless data compression. More specifically, the technique of context modeling is applied to estimate the VaR by conditioning the probability density function on the present context. Tree-structured vector quantization is applied to partition the multi-dimensional state space of both macroeconomic and microeconomic priors into an increasing but limited number of context classes. Each class can be interpreted as a state of aggregation with its own statistical and dynamic behavior, or as a random walk with its own drift and step size. Results on the US S&P500 index, obtained using several evaluation methods, show the strong potential of this approach and prove that it can be applied successfully for, amongst other useful applications, VaR and volatility prediction. The October 1997 crash is indicated in time.

  16. Predictive value of pedicle involvement with MRI in spine metastases

    PubMed Central

    Bian, Chong; Liang, Yun; Jiang, Libo; Qian, Chen; Dong, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The study aimed to retrospectively evaluate the accuracy and value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting pedicle involvement for patients with spine metastases. Methods Forty-five patients with a vertebral metastasis encroaching at least one pedicle were studied using MRI before surgery and regularly after surgery. Patients were categorized on the basis of their numbers of pedicle involvement (Group 1: one pedicle was involved, n = 23; Group 2: two pedicles were involved, n = 22). The diagnostic accuracy was calculated, and comparisons of intraoperative blood loss and recurrence rate between the two groups were performed. Results The overall performance of MRI in predicting the pedicle involvement was as follows: accuracy, 94.4%; sensitivity, 95.5%; and specificity, 91.3%. Less intraoperative blood loss was observed for Group 1 compared with Group 2 (1,661 ± 672 ml and 2,173 ± 790 ml, respectively, P = 0.024). Tumor relapse occurred in 8.7% (2/23) of Group 1 and in 22.7% (5/22) of Group 2 with median recurrence free survival time 14 and 9 months, respectively. Conclusions MRI is a reliable approach to assess pedicle involvement. It has potential for use in the evaluation of the clinical characteristics of patients with spine metastases. PMID:27486876

  17. Doing Gender for Different Reasons: Why Gender Conformity Positively and Negatively Predicts Self-Esteem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Good, Jessica J.; Sanchez, Diana T.

    2010-01-01

    Past research has shown that valuing gender conformity is associated with both positive and negative consequences for self-esteem and positive affect. The current research (women, n= 226; men, n= 175) explored these conflicting findings by separating out investing in societal gender ideals from personally valuing one's gender identity ("private…

  18. Diagnostic Value of Endoscopic Ultrasonography in Symptomatic Patients with High and Intermediate Probabilities of Common Bile Duct Stones and a Negative Computed Tomography Scan

    PubMed Central

    Jeon, Tae Joo; Cho, Jae Hee; Kim, Yeon Suk; Song, Si Young; Park, Ji Young

    2017-01-01

    Background/Aims When computed tomography (CT) does not indicate choledocholithiasis in highly suspicious patients, there is no definite consensus on the subsequent modality. Endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) indicates fewer procedure-related complications than endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and has a lower cost than magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of EUS in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis and negative CT findings. Methods Between March 2008 and November 2014, we retrospectively evaluated 200 patients with negative CT findings and high or intermediate probabilities of choledocholithiasis. All patients initially underwent EUS followed by ERCP as a confirmatory criterion standard. The primary outcome in these patients was the accuracy of EUS in the detection of choledocholithiasis. The secondary outcome was the clinical prediction of common bile duct (CBD) stones in this group. Results EUS indicated choledocholithiasis in 165 of the 200 patients, and ERCP confirmed choledocholithiasis in 161 patients (80.5%). The accuracy of EUS in the detection of choledocholithiasis was 94.0% (sensitivity, 97.5%; specificity, 79.5%; positive predictive value, 95.2%; negative predictive value, 88.6%). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that choledocholithiasis was strongly predicted by EUS detection of choledocholithiasis, an age >55 years and a clinical diagnosis of cholangitis. Conclusions An EUS-first approach is recommended for patients with suspected CBD stones and negative CT findings. PMID:27965473

  19. Depression vulnerability predicts cigarette smoking among college students: Gender and negative reinforcement expectancies as contributing factors.

    PubMed

    Morrell, Holly E R; Cohen, Lee M; McChargue, Dennis E

    2010-06-01

    This study examined the association between vulnerability to depression and smoking behavior in 1214 college students (54% female), and evaluated gender and expectancies of negative affect reduction as moderators or mediators of this relationship. Depression vulnerability predicted smoking in females, but not males. The relationship between depression vulnerability and smoking status was mediated by expectancies of negative affect reduction in females only. Female college students who are vulnerable to depression may smoke because they expect smoking to relieve negative affect. Smoking interventions for college females may increase in effectiveness by targeting depression and emphasizing mood regulation.

  20. Incremental validity of positive and negative valence in predicting personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Simms, Leonard J; Yufik, Tom; Gros, Daniel F

    2010-04-01

    The Big Seven model of personality includes five dimensions similar to the Big Five model as well as two evaluative dimensions—Positive Valence (PV) and Negative Valence (NV)—which reflect extremely positive and negative person descriptors, respectively. Recent theory and research have suggested that PV and NV predict significant variance in personality disorder (PD) above that predicted by the Big Five, but firm conclusions have not been possible because previous studies have been limited to only single measures of PV, NV, and the Big Five traits. In the present study, we replicated and extended previous findings using three markers of all key constructs—including PV, NV, and the Big Five—in a diverse sample of 338 undergraduates. Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that PV incrementally predicted Narcissistic and Histrionic PDs above the Big Five and that NV nonspecifically incremented the prediction of most PDs. Implications for dimensional models of personality pathology are discussed.

  1. Why do oceanic negative cloud-to-ground lightning exhibit larger peak current values?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chronis, T.; Koshak, W.; McCaul, E.

    2016-04-01

    This study examines the temporal (monthly) and spatial climatology (2004-2010) of the first return stroke of the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash peak current (Ip) across various land/water boundaries over the contiguous United States. Four regions are examined: the Gulf of Mexico (region 1), the Florida peninsula (region 2), Lake Michigan (region 3), and part of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic (region 4). The crosss across the coastlines of regions 1, 2, and 4 show a gradual oceanward increase in the mean negative polarity CG peak current values (-Ip). This transition along the respective land/ocean boundaries is not sharp but gradual. In direct contrast with ocean, there is no consistent behavior in -Ip values as we move from land out across the fresh water of Lake Michigan (region 3). Meanwhile, the positive CG flash peak current (+Ip) values do not exhibit a consistent variation across any coastal boundary. For region 1, the -Ip values increase as we move toward the coast (southwards) especially during the wet season (June-October). This finding is in direct contrast with studies that documented winter as the season of maximum -Ip values. The zonal and seasonal variations of -Ip values across region 4 are not quite as pronounced, but the oceanic -Ip values are still larger than over the adjoining landmass. We explore in turn which up to date hypotheses pertinent to the oceanic -Ip enhancement are supported or refuted by our findings. It is concluded that the oceanic -Ip enhancement is not an artifact related to CG detection or Ip retrieval methods, nor is it likely related to the cloud top heights or CG activity. The study cannot refute the role of electrical conductivity and its contribution to CG leader attachment processes. However, given the observed "blurred transition" of the Ip values across the coastlines this paper suggests that likely the main physical mechanism is acting on the thundercloud potential. The recently suggested role of sodium chloride (Na

  2. Negative Affective Spillover from Daily Events Predicts Early Response to Cognitive Therapy for Depression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Lawrence H.; Gunthert, Kathleen C.; Butler, Andrew C.; Parrish, Brendt P.; Wenze, Susan J.; Beck, Judith S.

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive role of depressed outpatients' (N = 62) affective reactivity to daily stressors in their rates of improvement in cognitive therapy (CT). For 1 week before treatment, patients completed nightly electronic diaries that assessed daily stressors and negative affect (NA). The authors used multilevel modeling to…

  3. A Preliminary Procedure for Predicting the Positive and Negative Effects of Reinforcement-Based Procedures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piazza, Cathleen C.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    A stimulus preference assessment was evaluated with an adult and a child with profound mental retardation and severe self-injurious behavior, in order to better predict both the beneficial and negative side effects of stimuli in differential-reinforcement-of-other-behavior treatments. (DB)

  4. Fear among the extremes: how political ideology predicts negative emotions and outgroup derogation.

    PubMed

    van Prooijen, Jan-Willem; Krouwel, André P M; Boiten, Max; Eendebak, Lennart

    2015-04-01

    The "rigidity of the right" hypothesis predicts that particularly the political right experiences fear and derogates outgroups. We propose that above and beyond that, the political extremes (at both sides of the spectrum) are more likely to display these responses than political moderates. Results of a large-scale sample reveal the predicted quadratic term on socio-economic fear. Moreover, although the political right is more likely to derogate the specific category of immigrants, we find a quadratic effect on derogation of a broad range of societal categories. Both extremes also experience stronger negative emotions about politics than politically moderate respondents. Finally, the quadratic effects on derogation of societal groups and negative political emotions were mediated by socio-economic fear, particularly among left- and right-wing extremists. It is concluded that negative emotions and outgroup derogation flourish among the extremes.

  5. Value of symptoms to predict tilt testing outcome in patients with clinical suspicion of vasovagal syncope.

    PubMed

    Vallejo, Maite; Hermosillo, Antonio G; Márquez, Manlio F; Urquidez, Alma K; Sotomayor, Arturo; Salas, Elizabeth; Cárdenas, Manuel

    2007-07-01

    Studies to assess the value of clinical symptoms to predict the head-up tilt test (HUT) outcome in patients with suspicion of vasovagal syncope have shown controversial results. We undertook this study to compare the frequency of symptoms between subjects with and without history of syncope, its association with syncopal spells in those with a history of syncope and positive or negative HUT, and to identify clinical predictors of HUT outcome. Sixty seven subjects with a history of unexplained syncope and 26 subjects without a history of syncope were interviewed using a structured questionnaire before undergoing HUT, which was performed first in a passive phase and, if negative, was repeated with pharmacological challenge using 5 mg of sublingual isosorbide. Questionnaire included the 16 symptoms most frequently reported in previous studies. Only five symptoms were reported more frequently by subjects with history of syncope in comparison with subjects without it: visual blurring, dysesthesia, sighing dyspnea, tremor in fingers, and diaphoresis. Comparison of symptom frequency between patients with history of syncope and positive or negative HUT revealed that only two were significantly different: nausea and hot flashes. However, a detailed analysis of the data indicates that only hot flashes occurring just before the syncope were more common in those with a positive HUT. Although some symptoms were found more frequently in patients with a history of syncope than in those without it, the use of a structured questionnaire in the group of patients failed to predict the outcome of the HUT.

  6. Predicting Negative Events: Using Post-discharge Data to Detect High-Risk Patients

    PubMed Central

    Sulieman, Lina; Fabbri, Daniel; Wang, Fei; Hu, Jianying; Malin, Bradley A

    2016-01-01

    Predicting negative outcomes, such as readmission or death, and detecting high-risk patients are important yet challenging problems in medical informatics. Various models have been proposed to detect high-risk patients; however, the state of the art relies on patient information collected before or at the time of discharge to predict future outcomes. In this paper, we investigate the effect of including data generated post discharge to predict negative outcomes. Specifically, we focus on two types of patients admitted to the Vanderbilt University Medical Center between 2010-2013: i) those with an acute event - 704 hip fractures and ii) those with chronic problems — 5250 congestive heart failure (CHF) patients. We show that the post-discharge model improved the AUC of the LACE index, a standard readmission scoring function, by 20 - 30%. Moreover, the new model resulted in higher AUCs by 15 - 27% for hip fracture and 10 - 12% for CHF compared to standard models. PMID:28269914

  7. Predictive Value of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Differentiating Between Leiomyoma and Adenomyosis

    PubMed Central

    Moghadam, Rosa; Lathi, Ruth B.; Shahmohamady, Babac; Saberi, Naghmeh S.; Nezhat, Ceana H.; Nezhat, Farr

    2006-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the role of MRI as a preoperative diagnostic tool for leiomyoma and adenomyosis. Method: This is a retrospective chart review at a university-based hospital. The study included 1517 women who underwent hysterectomy or myomectomy over a 5-year period, and 153 women with a preoperative pelvic MRI were included. Comparisons were made between the results of the MRI and postoperative pathology reports. Results: The MRI and pathology report were the same for 136 of 144 women with leiomyoma and 12 of 31 women with adenomyosis. The MRI had 94% sensitivity and 33% specificity for leiomyoma and 38% sensitivity and 91% specificity for adenomyosis. Positive and negative predictive values of MRI for leiomyoma were 95% and 27% with 90% accuracy. Positive and negative predictive values of MRI for adenomyosis were 52% and 85%, respectively, with 80% accuracy. Conclusion: MRI has a high sensitivity and a low specificity for diagnosing leiomyoma and a high specificity and a low sensitivity for diagnosing adenomyosis. Due to the high cost and technical variations, we suggest using MRI only as an adjunctive diagnostic tool when ultrasound is not conclusive and differentiation between the 2 pathologies ultimately affects patient management. PMID:16882423

  8. Cultural Values Predicting Acculturation Orientations: Operationalizing a Quantitative Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehala, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This article proposes that acculturation orientations are related to two sets of cultural values: utilitarianism (Ut) and traditionalism (Tr). While utilitarian values enhance assimilation, traditional values support language and identity maintenance. It is proposed that the propensity to either end of this value opposition can be measured by an…

  9. Interaction of noradrenaline and cortisol predicts negative intrusive memories in posttraumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Emma L; Bryant, Richard A; Felmingham, Kim L

    2014-07-01

    Recent evidence suggests that an interaction of noradrenaline (NE) and cortisol (CORT) during encoding leads to greater consolidation of emotional memories. Convergent models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) suggest the release of CORT and NE lead to greater intrusive memories in PTSD. This study examined the effect of NE and CORT during encoding on recall and intrusive memories in PTSD. Fifty-eight participants (18 participants with PTSD, 20 trauma-exposed controls, and 20 non-trauma exposed controls) provided saliva samples of NE (indexed by salivary alpha amylase; sAA) and CORT at (a) baseline and (b) after viewing negative emotional stimuli. Delayed memory recall and number of intrusive memories of negative, neutral and positive stimuli were recorded two days after this initial testing session. The PTSD group had greater NE levels to negative stimuli and reported greater numbers of intrusive memories of negative stimuli than controls. Regression analyses revealed that the interaction of CORT and NE significantly predicted negative intrusive memories in the PTSD group. The trauma-exposed group reported significantly greater recall of negative images compared to controls, but did not differ significantly from the PTSD group. The PTSD group reported greater levels of suppression of negative images during encoding compared to the other groups. Our results confirm that the interaction of NE and CORT significantly predicts greater negative intrusive memories, but this occurs specifically in the PTSD group. This suggests that a level of heightened arousal is required for the relationship between stress hormones and emotional memory to manifest in PTSD.

  10. Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: diagnostic and predictive value of clinical testing, lumbar drainage, and CSF dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mahr, Cynthia V; Dengl, Markus; Nestler, Ulf; Reiss-Zimmermann, Martin; Eichner, Gerrit; Preuß, Matthias; Meixensberger, Jürgen

    2016-09-01

    OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to analyze the diagnostic and predictive values of clinical tests, CSF dynamics, and intracranial pulsatility tests, compared with external lumbar drainage (ELD), for shunt response in patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). METHODS Sixty-eight consecutive patients with suspected iNPH were prospectively evaluated. Preoperative assessment included clinical tests, overnight intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring, lumbar infusion test (LIFT), and ELD for 24-72 hours. Simple and multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to identify predictive parameters concerning the outcome after shunt therapy. RESULTS Positive response to ELD correctly predicted improvement after CSF diversion in 87.9% of the patients. A Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) value below 21 was associated with nonresponse after shunt insertion (specificity 93%, sensitivity 67%). Resistance to outflow of CSF (ROut) > 12 mm Hg/ml/min was false negative in 21% of patients. Intracranial pulsatility parameters yielded different results in various parameters (correlation coefficient between pulse amplitude and ICP, slow wave amplitude, and mean ICP) but did not correlate to outcome. In multiple linear regression analysis, a calculation of presurgical MMSE versus the value after ELD, ROut, and ICP amplitude quotient during LIFT was significantly associated with outcome (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS Despite a multitude of invasive tests, presurgical clinical testing and response to ELD yielded the best prediction for improvement of symptoms following surgery. The complication rate of invasive testing was 5.4%. Multiple and simple linear regression analyses indicated that outcome can only be predicted by a combination of parameters, in accordance with a multifactorial pathogenesis of iNPH.

  11. Fronto-temporal connectivity predicts cognitive empathy deficits and experiential negative symptoms in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Abram, Samantha V; Wisner, Krista M; Fox, Jaclyn M; Barch, Deanna M; Wang, Lei; Csernansky, John G; MacDonald, Angus W; Smith, Matthew J

    2017-03-01

    Impaired cognitive empathy is a core social cognitive deficit in schizophrenia associated with negative symptoms and social functioning. Cognitive empathy and negative symptoms have also been linked to medial prefrontal and temporal brain networks. While shared behavioral and neural underpinnings are suspected for cognitive empathy and negative symptoms, research is needed to test these hypotheses. In two studies, we evaluated whether resting-state functional connectivity between data-driven networks, or components (referred to as, inter-component connectivity), predicted cognitive empathy and experiential and expressive negative symptoms in schizophrenia subjects. Study 1: We examined associations between cognitive empathy and medial prefrontal and temporal inter-component connectivity at rest using a group-matched schizophrenia and control sample. We then assessed whether inter-component connectivity metrics associated with cognitive empathy were also related to negative symptoms. Study 2: We sought to replicate the connectivity-symptom associations observed in Study 1 using an independent schizophrenia sample. Study 1 results revealed that while the groups did not differ in average inter-component connectivity, a medial-fronto-temporal metric and an orbito-fronto-temporal metric were related to cognitive empathy. Moreover, the medial-fronto-temporal metric was associated with experiential negative symptoms in both schizophrenia samples. These findings support recent models that link social cognition and negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1111-1124, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. A Values-Affirmation Intervention Does Not Benefit Negatively Stereotyped Immigrant Students in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    de Jong, Elisabeth M.; Jellesma, Francine C.; Koomen, Helma M. Y.; de Jong, Peter F.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research showed that a values-affirmation intervention can help reduce the achievement gap between African American and European American students in the US. In the present study, it was examined if these results would generalize to ethnic minority students in a country outside the US, namely the Netherlands, where there is also an achievement gap between native and ethnic minority students. This type of intervention was tested in two separate studies, the first among first-year pre-vocational students (n = 361, 84% ethnic minority), and the second among sixth grade students (n = 290, 96% ethnic minority). Most minority participants had a Turkish-Dutch or Moroccan-Dutch immigrant background. In the second study, a third condition was added to the original paradigm, in which students elaborated on either their affirmation- or a control exercise with the help of a teaching assistant. We also examined whether values affirmation affected the level of problem behavior of negatively stereotyped ethnic minority youth. Contrary to what was expected, multilevel analyses revealed that the intervention had no effect on the school achievement or the problem behavior of the ethnic minority students. Possible explanations for these findings, mainly related to contextual and cultural differences between the Netherlands and the US, are discussed. PMID:27242604

  13. Early negative affect predicts anxiety, not autism, in preschool boys with fragile X syndrome.

    PubMed

    Tonnsen, Bridgette L; Malone, Patrick S; Hatton, Deborah D; Roberts, Jane E

    2013-02-01

    Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) face high risk for anxiety disorders, yet no studies have explored FXS as a high-risk sample for investigating early manifestations of anxiety outcomes. Negative affect is one of the most salient predictors of problem behaviors and has been associated with both anxiety and autistic outcomes in clinical and non-clinical pediatric samples. In light of the high comorbidity between autism and anxiety within FXS, the present study investigates the relationship between longitudinal trajectories of negative affect (between 8 and 71 months) and severity of anxiety and autistic outcomes in young males with FXS (n = 25). Multilevel models indicated associations between elevated anxiety and higher fear and sadness, lower soothability, and steeper longitudinal increases in approach. Autistic outcomes were unrelated to negative affect. These findings suggest early negative affect differentially predicts anxiety, not autistic symptoms, within FXS. Future research is warranted to determine the specificity of the relationship between negative affect and anxiety, as well as to explore potential moderators. Characterizing the relationship between early negative affect and anxiety within FXS may inform etiology and treatment considerations specific to children with FXS, as well as lend insight into precursors of anxiety disorders in other clinical groups and community samples.

  14. Fear of negative evaluation and gender interact to predict alcoholic beverage preference.

    PubMed

    Corcoran, K J; Segrist, D J

    1998-01-01

    This study was designed to look at the influence of gender, alcohol expectancies, and fear of negative evaluation on beverage selection. Participants tasted pineapple juice, tonic water, beer, and diet cola and were then asked which they would prefer when presented with each of all possible alternative pairings. Results indicated no effect on beer selection due to alcohol expectancies, but fear of negative evaluation and gender interacted to predict beer selection. Post hoc analyses indicated that women with high levels of fear of negative evaluation selected beer significantly less often than any of the other groups. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of considering the interaction of "initial conditions" individuals bring to a situation, which serves as a filter for environmental information.

  15. The predictive value of MRI in detecting thyroid gland invasion in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lin, Peiliang; Huang, Xiaoming; Zheng, Chushan; Cai, Qian; Guan, Zhong; Liang, Faya; Zheng, Yiqing

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting thyroid gland invasion (TGI) in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. In a retrospective chart review, 41 patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma underwent MRI scan before total laryngectomy and ipsilateral or bilateral thyroidectomy during the past 5 years. The MRI findings were compared with the postoperative pathological results. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Among the 41 patients, 3 had thyroid gland invasion in postoperative pathological results. MRI correctly predicted the absence of TGI in 37 of 38 patients and TGI in all 3 patients. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRI were 100.0, 97.4, 75.0, and 100 %, respectively, with the diagnostic accuracy of 97.6 %. In consideration of the high negative predictive value of MRI, it may help surgeons selectively preserve thyroid gland in total laryngectomy and reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism postoperatively.

  16. The feedback-related negativity reflects “more or less” prediction error in appetitive and aversive conditions

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Yi; Yu, Rongjun

    2014-01-01

    Humans make predictions and use feedback to update their subsequent predictions. The feedback-related negativity (FRN) has been found to be sensitive to negative feedback as well as negative prediction error, such that the FRN is larger for outcomes that are worse than expected. The present study examined prediction errors in both appetitive and aversive conditions. We found that the FRN was more negative for reward omission vs. wins and for loss omission vs. losses, suggesting that the FRN might classify outcomes in a “more-or-less than expected” fashion rather than in the “better-or-worse than expected” dimension. Our findings challenge the previous notion that the FRN only encodes negative feedback and “worse than expected” negative prediction error. PMID:24904254

  17. Pupillary reactivity to negative stimuli prospectively predicts recurrence of major depressive disorder in women.

    PubMed

    Kudinova, Anastacia Y; Burkhouse, Katie L; Siegle, Greg; Owens, Max; Woody, Mary L; Gibb, Brandon E

    2016-12-01

    There is a large body of research supporting the association between disrupted physiological reactivity to negative stimuli and depression. The present study aimed to examine whether physiological reactivity to emotional stimuli, assessed via pupil dilation, served as a biological marker of risk for depression recurrence among individuals who are known to be at a higher risk due to having previous history of depression. Participants were 57 women with a history of major depressive disorder (MDD). Pupil dilation to angry, happy, sad, and neutral faces was recorded. Participants' diagnoses and symptoms were assessed 24 months after the initial assessment. We found that women's pupillary reactivity to negative (sad or angry faces) but not positive stimuli prospectively predicted MDD recurrence. Additionally, we found that both hyper- and hypopupillary reactivity to angry faces predicted risk for MDD recurrence. These findings suggest that disrupted physiological response to negative stimuli indexed via pupillary dilation could serve as a physiological marker of MDD risk, thus presenting clinicians with a convenient and inexpensive method to predict which of the at-risk women are more likely to experience depression recurrence.

  18. Discovering Recurrent Copy Number Aberrations in Complex Patterns via Non-Negative Sparse Singular Value Decomposition.

    PubMed

    Xi, Jianing; Li, Ao

    2016-01-01

    Recurrent copy number aberrations (RCNAs) in multiple cancer samples are strongly associated with tumorigenesis, and RCNA discovery is helpful to cancer research and treatment. Despite the emergence of numerous RCNA discovering methods, most of them are unable to detect RCNAs in complex patterns that are influenced by complicating factors including aberration in partial samples, co-existing of gains and losses and normal-like tumor samples. Here, we propose a novel computational method, called non-negative sparse singular value decomposition (NN-SSVD), to address the RCNA discovering problem in complex patterns. In NN-SSVD, the measurement of RCNA is based on the aberration frequency in a part of samples rather than all samples, which can circumvent the complexity of different RCNA patterns. We evaluate NN-SSVD on synthetic dataset by comparison on detection scores and Receiver Operating Characteristics curves, and the results show that NN-SSVD outperforms existing methods in RCNA discovery and demonstrate more robustness to RCNA complicating factors. Applying our approach on a breast cancer dataset, we successfully identify a number of genomic regions that are strongly correlated with previous studies, which harbor a bunch of known breast cancer associated genes.

  19. High EGFR gene copy number predicts poor outcome in triple-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Park, Heae Surng; Jang, Min Hye; Kim, Eun Joo; Kim, Hyun Jeong; Lee, Hee Jin; Kim, Yu Jung; Kim, Jee Hyun; Kang, Eunyoung; Kim, Sung-Won; Kim, In Ah; Park, So Yeon

    2014-09-01

    Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is frequently overexpressed in triple-negative breast cancer and is emerging as a therapeutic target. EGFR gene copy number alteration and mutation are highly variable and scientists have been challenged to define their prognostic significance in triple-negative breast cancer. We examined EGFR protein expression, EGFR gene copy number alteration and mutation of exon 18 to 21 in 151 cases of triple-negative breast cancer and correlated these findings with clinical outcomes. In addition, intratumoral agreement of EGFR protein overexpression and gene copy number alteration was evaluated. EGFR overexpression was found in 97 of 151 cases (64%) and high EGFR gene copy number was detected in 50 cases (33%), including 3 gene amplification (2%) and 47 high polysomy (31%). Five EGFR mutations were detected in 4 of 151 cases (3%) and included G719A in exon 18 (n=1), V786M in exon 20 (n=1), and L858R in exon 21 (n=3). One case had two mutations (G719A and L858R). High EGFR copy number, but not EGFR mutation, correlated with EGFR protein overexpression. Intratumoral heterogeneity of EGFR protein overexpression and EGFR copy number alteration was not significant. In survival analyses, high EGFR copy number was found to be an independent prognostic factor for poor disease-free survival in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Our findings showed that EGFR mutation was a rare event, but high EGFR copy number was relatively frequent and correlated with EGFR overexpression in triple-negative breast cancer. Moreover, high EGFR copy number was associated with poor clinical outcome in triple-negative breast cancer, suggesting that evaluation of EGFR copy number may be useful for predicting outcomes in patients with triple-negative breast cancer and for selecting patients for anti-EGFR-targeted therapy.

  20. Diagnosis of human hydatidosis. Predictive value of a rural ultrasonographic survey in an apparently healthy population.

    PubMed

    Del Carpio, M; Moguilansky, S; Costa, M; Panomarenko, H; Bianchi, G; Bendersky, S; Lazcano, M; Frider, B; Larrieu, E

    2000-01-01

    The usefulness of ultrasonography (US) in the early diagnosis of hydatidosis, applied in large-scale surveys to populations lacking clinical symptoms of the disease, has been amply documented. However, the rate of false positive and negative results is poorly described. Due to this, the present paper is aimed to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of a conventional rural ultrasonographic survey in comparison with higher imaging complexity. Accordingly, during 1997 and 1998 a total of 1054 children from 7 to 14 years of age were evaluated by means of US, in the town of Ingeniero Jacobacci, Province of Rio Negro, Argentina, employing a portable device for population studies. All detected cases were referred to a high complexity center specialized in imaging diagnosis for their re-evaluation with US, CT scanning and X-rays. A control group comprising 3 children negative by US for each positive case in the mass screening survey was selected and reexamined by US and X-rays and CT scanning in doubtful situations. Twenty-seven asymptomatic carriers were referred with images compatible with hydatid cysts, while 66 were classified as disease free. At reexamination, 24 of those diagnosed as carriers and the totality of those classified as healthy were confirmed. On the basis of our results, a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 95.6% and a global test value of 96.7% were estimated.

  1. Evaluation of the prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in triple-negative breast cancers

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Tian; Ruan, Miao; Yang, Wentao; Shui, Ruohong

    2016-01-01

    Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) may be associated with clinical outcome in triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs). However, lacking of standardized methodologies in TILs evaluation has hindered its application in clinical practice. To evaluate the prognostic role of TILs scored by methods recommended by International TILs Working Group 2014, we performed a retrospective study of TILs in 425 primary invasive TNBCs in a Chinese population with a median follow-up of 4 years. Intratumoral TILs (iTILs) and stromal TILs (sTILs) were scored respectively. The associations between TILs and disease-free survival (DFS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated with COX models. ITILs were not associated with prognosis. Higher sTILs were associated with better prognosis; for every 10% increase in sTILs, a 5% reduction of risk of recurrence or death (P < 0.001), 5% reduction of risk of distant recurrence (P < 0.001), and 4% reduction of risk of death (P = 0.002) were observed. Multivariate analysis confirmed sTILs to be an independent prognostic marker. 3.5% of TNBCs had more than 50% lymphocytes (lymphocyte-predominant breast cancer, LPBC), and associations between LPBC status and prognosis were observed but did not reach statistical significance. TNBCs with more than 20% sTILs had a significantly better prognosis than the patients with no more than 20% sTILs. In conclusion, our study indicated that sTILs scored by methods recommended by International TILs Working Group 2014 were associated with the prognosis of TNBCs. STILs could be an independent prognostic biomarker in TNBCs, increasing sTILs predicting better prognosis. PMID:27323808

  2. Positive predictive value of albumin: globulin ratio for feline infectious peritonitis in a mid-western referral hospital population.

    PubMed

    Jeffery, Unity; Deitz, Krysta; Hostetter, Shannon

    2012-12-01

    Low albumin to globulin ratio has been found previously to have a high positive predictive value for feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) in cats with clinical signs highly suggestive of the disease. However, FIP can have a more vague clinical presentation. This retrospective study found that the positive predictive value of an albumin:globulin (A:G) ratio of <0.8 and <0.6 was only 12.5% and 25%, respectively, in a group of 100 cats with one or more clinical signs consistent with FIP. The negative predictive value was 100% and 99% for an A:G ratio of <0.8 and A:G<0.6%, respectively. Therefore, when the prevalence of FIP is low, the A:G ratio is useful to rule out FIP but is not helpful in making a positive diagnosis of FIP.

  3. The Predictive and Instructional Value of Interim Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pon, Kathleen

    2013-01-01

    This mixed design study investigated the predictive and instructional uses of two different types of interim mathematics assessments given in two different districts. One district administered the same summative type of assessment three times a year, while the other district administered a different interim assessment after six-week intervals of…

  4. Etiology of extubation failure and the predictive value of the rapid shallow breathing index.

    PubMed

    Epstein, S K

    1995-08-01

    Failure of weaning from mechanical ventilation is thought to result from an imbalance between respiratory muscle capacity and respiratory demand. The ratio of respiratory rate to tidal volume (f/VT, rapid shallow breathing index) during spontaneous unsupported respiration increases when this imbalance exists, and may predict the success or failure of weaning from mechanical ventilation. Using f/VT, Yang and Tobin demonstrated a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.78 (f/VT < or = 105 and weaning success) (1). To define the etiology of the 20% false-positive rate (FPR, f/VT < or = 105 and weaning failure), 94 patients who had an f/VT determined prior to extubation were studied prospectively. Of 84 patients with an f/VT < 100, 14 required reintubation within 72 h of extubation (FPR = 0.17, PPV = 0.83). Extubation in 13 of these 14 cases failed because of congestive heart failure, upper airway obstruction, aspiration, encephalopathy, or the development of a new pulmonary process. Only one patient needed reintubation solely because of the original respiratory process. Of 10 patients extubated with an f/VT > or = 100, four required reintubation, all because of the underlying respiratory process. This study confirms the high PPV for an f/VT < 100. The FPR of approximately 0.20 is best explained by extubation failure caused by processes for which f/VT is physiologically or temporally unlikely to predict success or failure. The negative predictive value (f/VT > or = 100 but extubation success) for f/VT may be lower than previously reported.

  5. Hair loss in females after sleeve gastrectomy: predictive value of serum zinc and iron levels.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Tovar, Jaime; Oller, Inmaculada; Llavero, Carolina; Zubiaga, Lorea; Diez, María; Arroyo, Antonio; Calero, Alicia; Calpena, Rafael

    2014-05-01

    A common complication after bariatric surgery is hair loss, which is related to rapid weight reduction, but zinc, iron, and other micronutrient deficiencies can also be involved. Little is studied after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). A prospective observational study was performed of 42 morbidly obese females undergoing LSG. Incidence of hair loss was monitored. Micronutrients were investigated preoperatively and three, six, and 12 months after surgery. Sixteen patients (41%) reported hair loss in the postoperative course. A significant association was observed between hair loss and zinc levels (P = 0.021) but mean zinc levels were within the normal range in patients reporting hair loss. Only three patients (7.7%) presented low zinc levels, all of them reporting hair loss. There was also a significant association between iron levels and alopecia (P = 0.017), but mean values of the patients with hair loss were within normal range. Only four patients (10.2%) presented low iron levels, all of them presenting hair loss. A variable consisting of the addition of zinc + iron showed a significant association with hair loss (P = 0.013). A cutoff point was established in 115 (odds ratio, 4; P = 0.006). All the patients but two reporting hair loss presented addition levels under 115. This variable showed sensibility 88 per cent, specificity 84 per cent, positive predictive value 79 per cent, and negative predictive value 91 per cent to predict hair loss. Hair loss is a frequent condition after sleeve gastrectomy. In most cases, iron and zinc levels are within the normal range. The variable addition (zinc + iron) is a good predictor of hair loss. Patients with addition levels below 115 are fourfold more susceptible to present hair loss. In these cases, zinc supplements achieve the stop of hair loss in most cases.

  6. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making.

    PubMed

    Murty, Vishnu P; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-05-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory-specifically item versus associative memory-in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to reengage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to reengage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations-such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior.

  7. Striatal D1 and D2 signaling differentially predict learning from positive and negative outcomes.

    PubMed

    Cox, Sylvia M L; Frank, Michael J; Larcher, Kevin; Fellows, Lesley K; Clark, Crystal A; Leyton, Marco; Dagher, Alain

    2015-04-01

    The extent to which we learn from positive and negative outcomes of decisions is modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine. Dopamine neurons burst fire in response to unexpected rewards and pause following negative outcomes. This dual signaling mechanism is hypothesized to drive both approach and avoidance behavior. Here we test a prediction deriving from a computational reinforcement learning model, in which approach is mediated via activation of the direct cortico-striatal pathway due to striatal D1 receptor stimulation, while avoidance occurs via disinhibition of indirect pathway striatal neurons secondary to a reduction of D2 receptor stimulation. Using positron emission tomography with two separate radioligands, we demonstrate that individual differences in human approach and avoidance learning are predicted by variability in striatal D1 and D2 receptor binding, respectively. Moreover, transient dopamine precursor depletion improved learning from negative outcomes. These findings support a bidirectional modulatory role for striatal dopamine in reward and avoidance learning via segregated D1 and D2 cortico-striatal pathways.

  8. Financial Strain and Stressful Events Predict Newlyweds’ Negative Communication Independent of Relationship Satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    Williamson, Hannah C.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Bradbury, Thomas N.

    2013-01-01

    Social-learning perspectives explicitly recognize the role of partners’ personal histories and contexts as possible causes of couple communication behavior, but these assumptions are rarely tested directly, and operationalizations of context in behavioral research on couples rarely extend beyond the interacting dyad. To broaden our understanding of why couples differ in communication, the current study examined whether observed behaviors in marital interactions covary with individual experiences and contextual factors. Behaviors coded from in-home conversations of 414 ethnically-diverse newlywed couples were examined simultaneously in relation to childhood and family-of-origin experiences, financial strain and stressful life events, depressive symptoms, and relationship satisfaction. A latent factor representing financial strain and stressful life events was the strongest correlate of negative communication, with higher levels of stress predicting more negativity. Relationship satisfaction was the strongest correlate of observed positivity, with higher levels of satisfaction predicting more positivity. Childhood and family experiences were unrelated to behaviors, whereas results for depressive symptoms were complex and counterintuitive. Because the negative behaviors highlighted in social-learning models of relationship functioning, and often targeted in educational interventions, covary reliably with the stresses and financial strains that couples experience, contextual factors merit greater emphasis in models designed to explain and prevent marital deterioration. PMID:23421833

  9. Financial strain and stressful events predict newlyweds' negative communication independent of relationship satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Williamson, Hannah C; Karney, Benjamin R; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2013-02-01

    Social-learning perspectives explicitly recognize the role of partners' personal histories and contexts as possible causes of couple communication behavior, but these assumptions are rarely tested directly, and operationalizations of context in behavioral research on couples rarely extend beyond the interacting dyad. To broaden our understanding of why couples differ in communication, the current study examined whether observed behaviors in marital interactions covary with individual experiences and contextual factors. Behaviors coded from in-home conversations of 414 ethnically diverse newlywed couples were examined simultaneously in relation to childhood and family-of-origin experiences, financial strain and stressful life events, depressive symptoms, and relationship satisfaction. A latent factor representing financial strain and stressful life events was the strongest correlate of negative communication, with higher levels of stress predicting more negativity. Relationship satisfaction was the strongest correlate of observed positivity, with higher levels of satisfaction predicting more positivity. Childhood and family experiences were unrelated to behaviors, whereas results for depressive symptoms were complex and counterintuitive. Because the negative behaviors highlighted in social-learning models of relationship functioning, and often targeted in educational interventions, covary reliably with the stresses and financial strains that couples experience, contextual factors merit greater emphasis in models designed to explain and prevent marital deterioration.

  10. Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value.

    PubMed

    Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2017-04-04

    Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply.

  11. Is genetic testing of value in predicting and treating obesity?

    PubMed

    Ng, Maggie C Y; Bowden, Donald W

    2013-01-01

    Obesity is a multifactorial disease resulting from the interaction between genetic factors and lifestyle. Identification of rare genetic variations with strong effects on obesity has been useful in diagnosing and designing personalized therapy for early-onset or syndromic obesity. However, common variants identified in recent genome-wide association studies have limited clinical value.

  12. Individual differences in reward-prediction-error: extraversion and feedback-related negativity.

    PubMed

    Smillie, Luke D; Cooper, Andrew J; Pickering, Alan D

    2011-10-01

    Medial frontal scalp-recorded negativity occurring ∼200-300 ms post-stimulus [known as feedback-related negativity (FRN)] is attenuated following unpredicted reward and potentiated following unpredicted non-reward. This encourages the view that FRN may partly reflect dopaminergic 'reward-prediction-error' signalling. We examined the influence of a putatively dopamine-based personality trait, extraversion (N = 30), and a dopamine-related gene polymorphism, DRD2/ANKK1 (N = 24), on FRN during an associative reward-learning paradigm. FRN was most negative following unpredicted non-reward and least-negative following unpredicted reward. A difference wave contrasting these conditions was significantly more pronounced for extraverted participants than for introverts, with a similar but non-significant trend for participants carrying at least one copy of the A1 allele of the DRD2/ANKK1 gene compared with those without the allele. Extraversion was also significantly higher in A1 allele carriers. Results have broad relevance to neuroscience and personality research concerning reward processing and dopamine function.

  13. Mindfulness Trait Predicts Neurophysiological Reactivity Associated with Negativity Bias: An ERP Study

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Nerissa S. P.; Sun, Delin; Ting, Kin-Hung; Chan, Chetwyn C. H.; Lee, Tatia M. C.

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the relationship of mindfulness trait with the early and late stages of affective processing, by examining the two corresponding ERP components, P2 and LPP, collected from twenty-two male Chinese participants with a wide range of meditation experiences. Multiple regression analyses was performed on the mindfulness scores, as measured by CAMS-R, with the subjective affective ratings and ERP data collected during an emotion processing task. The results showed that increased mindfulness scores predicted increased valence ratings of negative stimuli (less negative), as well as increased P2 amplitudes at the frontocentral location for positive compared to negative stimuli. Based on these findings, a plausible mechanism of mindfulness in reducing negativity bias was discussed. Moreover, our results replicated previous findings on the age-related increase of P2 amplitudes at the frontal sites for positive compared to neutral stimuli. Since the locations at which P2 amplitudes were found as associated with age and mindfulness differed, as did the emotional contents of the stimuli being compared, indicating that the effect of age did not confound our findings on mindfulness and the two factors might operate on early affective processing from distinct sources and mechanisms. PMID:26124852

  14. Mindfulness Trait Predicts Neurophysiological Reactivity Associated with Negativity Bias: An ERP Study.

    PubMed

    Ho, Nerissa S P; Sun, Delin; Ting, Kin-Hung; Chan, Chetwyn C H; Lee, Tatia M C

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the relationship of mindfulness trait with the early and late stages of affective processing, by examining the two corresponding ERP components, P2 and LPP, collected from twenty-two male Chinese participants with a wide range of meditation experiences. Multiple regression analyses was performed on the mindfulness scores, as measured by CAMS-R, with the subjective affective ratings and ERP data collected during an emotion processing task. The results showed that increased mindfulness scores predicted increased valence ratings of negative stimuli (less negative), as well as increased P2 amplitudes at the frontocentral location for positive compared to negative stimuli. Based on these findings, a plausible mechanism of mindfulness in reducing negativity bias was discussed. Moreover, our results replicated previous findings on the age-related increase of P2 amplitudes at the frontal sites for positive compared to neutral stimuli. Since the locations at which P2 amplitudes were found as associated with age and mindfulness differed, as did the emotional contents of the stimuli being compared, indicating that the effect of age did not confound our findings on mindfulness and the two factors might operate on early affective processing from distinct sources and mechanisms.

  15. A perturbation-based framework for link prediction via non-negative matrix factorization

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wenjun; Cai, Fei; Jiao, Pengfei; Pan, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Many link prediction methods have been developed to infer unobserved links or predict latent links based on the observed network structure. However, due to network noises and irregular links in real network, the performances of existed methods are usually limited. Considering random noises and irregular links, we propose a perturbation-based framework based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization to predict missing links. We first automatically determine the suitable number of latent features, which is inner rank in NMF, by Colibri method. Then, we perturb training set of a network by perturbation sets many times and get a series of perturbed networks. Finally, the common basis matrix and coefficients matrix of these perturbed networks are obtained via NMF and form similarity matrix of the network for link prediction. Experimental results on fifteen real networks show that the proposed framework has competitive performances compared with state-of-the-art link prediction methods. Correlations between the performances of different methods and the statistics of networks show that those methods with good precisions have similar consistence. PMID:27976672

  16. A perturbation-based framework for link prediction via non-negative matrix factorization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wenjun; Cai, Fei; Jiao, Pengfei; Pan, Lin

    2016-12-01

    Many link prediction methods have been developed to infer unobserved links or predict latent links based on the observed network structure. However, due to network noises and irregular links in real network, the performances of existed methods are usually limited. Considering random noises and irregular links, we propose a perturbation-based framework based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization to predict missing links. We first automatically determine the suitable number of latent features, which is inner rank in NMF, by Colibri method. Then, we perturb training set of a network by perturbation sets many times and get a series of perturbed networks. Finally, the common basis matrix and coefficients matrix of these perturbed networks are obtained via NMF and form similarity matrix of the network for link prediction. Experimental results on fifteen real networks show that the proposed framework has competitive performances compared with state-of-the-art link prediction methods. Correlations between the performances of different methods and the statistics of networks show that those methods with good precisions have similar consistence.

  17. Histomorphological Factors Predicting the Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Yoon Yang; Hyun, Chang Lim; Jin, Min-Sun; Park, In Ae; Chung, Yul Ri; Shim, Bobae; Lee, Kyu Ho

    2016-01-01

    Purpose There is no standard targeted therapy for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Therefore, its management heavily depends on adjuvant chemotherapy. Using core needle biopsy, this study evaluated the histological factors of TNBC predicting the response to chemotherapy. Methods One hundred forty-three TNBC patients who received single-regimen neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) with the combination of doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and docetaxel were enrolled. The core needle biopsy specimens acquired before NAC were used to analyze the clinicopathologic variables and overall performance of the predictive model for therapeutic response. Results Independent predictors of pathologic complete response after NAC were found to be higher number of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (p=0.007), absence of clear cytoplasm (p=0.008), low necrosis (p=0.018), and high histologic grade (p=0.039). In the receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, the area under curve for the combination of these four variables was 0.777. Conclusion The present study demonstrated that a predictive model using the above four variables can predict therapeutic response to single-regimen NAC with the combination of doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and docetaxel in TNBC. Therefore, adding these morphologic variables to clinical and genomic signatures might enhance the ability to predict the therapeutic response to NAC in TNBC. PMID:27721875

  18. Computational prediction of type III and IV secreted effectors in Gram-negative bacteria

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Corrigan, Abigail L.; Peterson, Elena S.; Oehmen, Christopher S.; Niemann, George; Cambronne, Eric; Sharp, Danna; Adkins, Joshua N.; Samudrala, Ram; Heffron, Fred

    2011-01-01

    In this review, we provide an overview of the methods employed by four recent papers that described novel methods for computational prediction of secreted effectors from type III and IV secretion systems in Gram-negative bacteria. The results of the studies in terms of performance at accurately predicting secreted effectors and similarities found between secretion signals that may reflect biologically relevant features for recognition. We discuss the web-based tools for secreted effector prediction described in these studies and announce the availability of our tool, the SIEVEserver (http://www.biopilot.org). Finally, we assess the accuracy of the three type III effector prediction methods on a small set of proteins not known prior to the development of these tools that we have recently discovered and validated using both experimental and computational approaches. Our comparison shows that all methods use similar approaches and, in general arrive at similar conclusions. We discuss the possibility of an order-dependent motif in the secretion signal, which was a point of disagreement in the studies. Our results show that there may be classes of effectors in which the signal has a loosely defined motif, and others in which secretion is dependent only on compositional biases. Computational prediction of secreted effectors from protein sequences represents an important step toward better understanding the interaction between pathogens and hosts.

  19. Mothers' depressive symptoms predict both increased and reduced negative reactivity: aversion sensitivity and the regulation of emotion.

    PubMed

    Dix, Theodore; Moed, Anat; Anderson, Edward R

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether, as mothers' depressive symptoms increase, their expressions of negative emotion to children increasingly reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to minimize ongoing stress or discomfort. In multiple interactions over 2 years, negative affect expressed by 319 mothers and their children was observed across variations in mothers' depressive symptoms, the aversiveness of children's immediate behavior, and observed differences in children's general negative reactivity. As expected, depressive symptoms predicted reduced maternal negative reactivity when child behavior was low in aversiveness, particularly with children who were high in negative reactivity. Depressive symptoms predicted high negative reactivity and steep increases in negative reactivity as the aversiveness of child behavior increased, particularly when high and continued aversiveness from the child was expected (i.e., children were high in negative reactivity). The findings are consistent with the proposal that deficits in parenting competence as depressive symptoms increase reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to avoid conflict and suppress children's aversive behavior.

  20. A culture-brain link: Negative age stereotypes predict Alzheimer's disease biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Levy, Becca R; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B; Slade, Martin D; Troncoso, Juan; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-02-01

    Although negative age stereotypes have been found to predict adverse outcomes among older individuals, it was unknown whether the influence of stereotypes extends to brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease. To consider this possibility, we drew on dementia-free participants, in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, whose age stereotypes were assessed decades before yearly magnetic resonance images and brain autopsies were performed. Those holding more-negative age stereotypes earlier in life had significantly steeper hippocampal-volume loss and significantly greater accumulation of neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid plaques, adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings suggest a new pathway to identifying mechanisms and potential interventions related to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease.

  1. Quantification, prediction, and the online impact of sentence truth-value: Evidence from event-related potentials.

    PubMed

    Nieuwland, Mante S

    2016-02-01

    Do negative quantifiers like "few" reduce people's ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the "final" interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., "Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results"). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words.

  2. Quantification, Prediction, and the Online Impact of Sentence Truth-Value: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Do negative quantifiers like “few” reduce people’s ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the “final” interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., “Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results”). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words. PMID:26375784

  3. Value of adipokines in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Comprehensive review

    PubMed Central

    Karpavicius, Andrius; Dambrauskas, Zilvinas; Sileikis, Audrius; Vitkus, Dalius; Strupas, Kestutis

    2012-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the prognostic value of adipokines in predicting the course, complications and fatal outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: We performed the search of PubMed database and the systemic analysis of the literature for both experimental and human studies on prognostic value of adipokines in AP for period 2002-2012. Only the papers that described the use of adipokines for prediction of severity and/or complications of AP were selected for further analysis. Each article had to contain information about the levels of measured adipokines, diagnosis and verification of AP, to specify presence of pancreatic necrosis, organ dysfunction and/or mortality rates. From the very beginning, study was carried out adhering to the PRISMA checklist and flowchart for systemic reviews. To assess quality of all included human studies, the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was used. Because of the high heterogeneity between the studies, it was decided to refrain from the statistical processing or meta-analysis of the available data. RESULTS: Nine human and three experimental studies were included into review. In experimental studies significant differences between leptin concentrations at 24 and 48 h in control, acute edematous and acute necrotizing pancreatitis groups were found (P = 0.027 and P < 0.001). In human studies significant differences between leptin and resitin concentrations in control and acute pancreatitis groups were found. 1-3 d serum adiponectin threshold of 4.5 μg/mL correctly classified the severity of 81% of patients with AP. This threshold yielded a sensitivity of 70%, specificity 85%, positive predictive value 64%, negative predictive value88% (area under curve 0.75). Resistin and visfatin concentrations differ significantly between mild and severe acute pancreatitis groups, they correlate with severity of disease, need for interventions and outcome. Both adipokines are good markers for parapancreatic necrosis and the cut

  4. Genetic determinants of common obesity and their value in prediction.

    PubMed

    Loos, Ruth J F

    2012-04-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revolutionised the discovery of genes for common traits and diseases, including obesity-related traits. In less then four years time, 52 genetic loci were identified to be unequivocally associated with obesity-related traits. This vast success raised hope and expectations that genetic information would become soon an integral part of personalised medicine. However, these loci have only small effects on obesity-susceptibility and explain just a fraction of the total variance. As such, their accuracy to predict obesity is poor and not competitive with the predictive ability of traditional risk factors. Nevertheless, some of these loci are being used in commercially available personal genome tests to estimate individuals' lifetime risk of obesity. While proponents believe that personal genome profiling could have beneficial effects on behaviour, early reports do not support this hypothesis. To conclude, the most valuable contribution of GWAS-identified loci lies in their contribution to elucidating new physiological pathways that underlie obesity-susceptibility.

  5. The role of negative affectivity and negative reactivity to emotions in predicting outcomes in the unified protocol for the transdiagnostic treatment of emotional disorders.

    PubMed

    Sauer-Zavala, Shannon; Boswell, James F; Gallagher, Matthew W; Bentley, Kate H; Ametaj, Amantia; Barlow, David H

    2012-09-01

    The present study aimed to understand the contributions of both the trait tendency to experience negative emotions and how one relates to such experience in predicting symptom change during participation in the Unified Protocol (UP), a transdiagnostic treatment for emotional disorders. Data were derived from a randomized controlled trial comparing the UP to a waitlist control/delayed-treatment condition. First, effect sizes of pre- to post-treatment change for frequency of negative emotions and several variables measuring reactivity to emotional experience (emotional awareness and acceptance, fear of emotions, and anxiety sensitivity) were examined. Second, the relative contributions of change in negative emotions and emotional reactivity in predicting symptom (clinician-rated anxiety, depression, and severity of principal diagnosis) reductions were investigated. Results suggested that decreases in the frequency of negative emotions and reactivity to emotions following participation in the UP were both large in magnitude. Further, two emotional reactivity variables (fear of emotions and anxiety sensitivity) remained significantly related to symptom outcomes when controlling for negative emotions, and accounted for significant incremental variance in their prediction. These findings lend support to the notion that psychological health depends less on the frequency of negative emotions and more on how one relates to these emotions when they occur.

  6. Prediction of Fluoroquinolone Resistance in Gram-Negative Bacteria Causing Bloodstream Infections.

    PubMed

    Dan, Seejil; Shah, Ansal; Justo, Julie Ann; Bookstaver, P Brandon; Kohn, Joseph; Albrecht, Helmut; Al-Hasan, Majdi N

    2016-04-01

    Increasing rates of fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) have limited empirical treatment options for Gram-negative infections, particularly in patients with severe beta-lactam allergy. This case-control study aims to develop a clinical risk score to predict the probability of FQ-R in Gram-negative bloodstream isolates. Adult patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infections (BSI) hospitalized at Palmetto Health System in Columbia, South Carolina, from 2010 to 2013 were identified. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for FQ-R. Point allocation in the fluoroquinolone resistance score (FQRS) was based on regression coefficients. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Among 824 patients with Gram-negative BSI, 143 (17%) had BSI due to fluoroquinolone-nonsusceptible Gram-negative bacilli. Independent risk factors for FQ-R and point allocation in FQRS included male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.97; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.36 to 2.98; 1 point), diabetes mellitus (aOR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.28; 1 point), residence at a skilled nursing facility (aOR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.42 to 3.63; 2 points), outpatient procedure within 30 days (aOR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.96 to 6.78; 3 points), prior fluoroquinolone use within 90 days (aOR, 7.87; 95% CI, 4.53 to 13.74; 5 points), or prior fluoroquinolone use within 91 to 180 days of BSI (aOR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.17 to 6.16; 3 points). The AUC for both final logistic regression and FQRS models was 0.73. Patients with an FQRS of 0, 3, 5, or 8 had predicted probabilities of FQ-R of 6%, 22%, 39%, or 69%, respectively. The estimation of patient-specific risk of antimicrobial resistance using FQRS may improve empirical antimicrobial therapy and fluoroquinolone utilization in Gram-negative BSI.

  7. Prediction of Fluoroquinolone Resistance in Gram-Negative Bacteria Causing Bloodstream Infections

    PubMed Central

    Dan, Seejil; Shah, Ansal; Justo, Julie Ann; Bookstaver, P. Brandon; Kohn, Joseph; Albrecht, Helmut

    2016-01-01

    Increasing rates of fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) have limited empirical treatment options for Gram-negative infections, particularly in patients with severe beta-lactam allergy. This case-control study aims to develop a clinical risk score to predict the probability of FQ-R in Gram-negative bloodstream isolates. Adult patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infections (BSI) hospitalized at Palmetto Health System in Columbia, South Carolina, from 2010 to 2013 were identified. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for FQ-R. Point allocation in the fluoroquinolone resistance score (FQRS) was based on regression coefficients. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Among 824 patients with Gram-negative BSI, 143 (17%) had BSI due to fluoroquinolone-nonsusceptible Gram-negative bacilli. Independent risk factors for FQ-R and point allocation in FQRS included male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.97; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.36 to 2.98; 1 point), diabetes mellitus (aOR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.28; 1 point), residence at a skilled nursing facility (aOR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.42 to 3.63; 2 points), outpatient procedure within 30 days (aOR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.96 to 6.78; 3 points), prior fluoroquinolone use within 90 days (aOR, 7.87; 95% CI, 4.53 to 13.74; 5 points), or prior fluoroquinolone use within 91 to 180 days of BSI (aOR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.17 to 6.16; 3 points). The AUC for both final logistic regression and FQRS models was 0.73. Patients with an FQRS of 0, 3, 5, or 8 had predicted probabilities of FQ-R of 6%, 22%, 39%, or 69%, respectively. The estimation of patient-specific risk of antimicrobial resistance using FQRS may improve empirical antimicrobial therapy and fluoroquinolone utilization in Gram-negative BSI. PMID:26833166

  8. Prediction of 3-hydroxypyridin-4-one (HPO) log K1 values for Fe(III).

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu-Lin; Barlow, Dave J; Kong, Xiao-Le; Ma, Yong-Min; Hider, Robert C

    2012-09-21

    As a means to aid in the design of 3-hydroxypyridin-4-ones (HPOs) intended for use as therapeutic Fe(3+) chelating agents, a novel methodology has been developed using quantum mechanical (QM) calculations for predicting the iron binding affinities of the compounds (more specifically, their log K(1) values). The reported/measured HPO log K(1) values were verified through their correlation with the corresponding sum of the compounds' ligating group pK(a) values. Using a training set of eleven HPOs with known log K(1) values, reliable predictions are shown to be obtained with QM calculations using the B3LYP/6-31+G(d)/CPCM model chemistry (with Bondi radii, and water as solvent). With this methodology, the observed log K(1) values for the training set compounds are closely matched by the predicted values, with the correlation between the observed and predicted values giving r(2) = 0.9. Predictions subsequently made by this method for a test set of 42 HPOs of known log K(1) values gave predicted values accurate to within ±0.32 log units. In order to further investigate the predictive power of the method, four novel HPOs were synthesised and their log K(1) values were determined experimentally. Comparison of these predicted log K(1) values against the measured values gave absolute deviations of 0.22 (13.87 vs. 14.09), 0.02 (14.31 vs. 14.29), 0.12 (14.62 vs. 14.50), and 0.13 (15.04 vs. 15.17). The prediction methodology reported here is the first to be provided for predicting the absolute log K(1) values of iron-chelating agents in the absence of pK(a) values.

  9. Instability range of microsolvated multiply charged negative ions: prediction from detachment energy of stable hydrated clusters.

    PubMed

    Pathak, A K; Samanta, A K; Maity, D K; Mukherjee, T; Ghosh, S K

    2011-02-01

    We have presented a first-principle theory-based derivation of an exact expression for the solvent number-dependent electron-detachment energy of a solvated species in the thermodynamic limit. We also propose a generalized equation bridging the electron detachment energies for small and infinitely large clusters, thus providing a new route to calculate the ionization potential of a negatively charged ion from the electron-detachment energies of its stable hydrated clusters. Most importantly, it has the ability to predict the instability range of microhydrated anions. The calculated results for the ionization potential for a number of ions are found to be in good agreement with the available experimental results, and the predicted instability range for the doubly charged anions SO₄²⁻ and C₂O₄²⁻ is also consistent with experimental and ab initio results.

  10. Positive predictive value of cholescintigraphy in common bile duct obstruction

    SciTech Connect

    Lecklitner, M.L.; Austin, A.R.; Benedetto, A.R.; Growcock, G.W.

    1986-09-01

    Technetium-99m DISIDA imaging was employed in 400 patients to differentiate obstruction of the common bile duct from medical and other surgical causes of hyperbilirubinemia. Sequential anterior images demonstrated variable degrees of liver uptake, yet there was no evidence of intrabiliary or extrabiliary radioactivity for at least 4 hr after injection in 25 patients. Twenty-three patients were surgically documented to have complete obstruction of the common bile duct. One patient had hepatitis, and another had sickle cell crisis without bile duct obstruction. The remaining patients had either partial or no obstruction of the common bile duct. We conclude that the presence of liver uptake without evident biliary excretion by 4 hr on cholescintigraphy is highly sensitive and predictive of total obstruction of the common bile duct.

  11. EGFR genomic alterations in cancer: prognostic and predictive values.

    PubMed

    Bronte, Giuseppe; Terrasi, Marianna; Rizzo, Sergio; Sivestris, Nicola; Ficorella, Corrado; Cajozzo, Massimo; Di Gaudio, Francesca; Gulotta, Gaspare; Siragusa, Sergio; Gebbia, Nicola; Russo, Antonio

    2011-06-01

    The role of EGFR in cancer development and progression has been recognized for long time in a variety of human malignancies including lung, head and neck, colon, breast, ovary and glioma. Recently its role as a target of antineoplastic agents has also been identified and a variety of EGFR-targeted drugs is already being used in a clinical setting and others are at present under investigation. Many data involving EGFR protein expression are now available for the choice of anti-EGFR monoclonal antibodies in colorectal cancer and with regard to EGFR gene mutations for the choice of tyrosine kinase inhibitors in lung cancer. Other EGFR-related molecular factors, including the EGFR gene copy number, are currently under investigation. This review summarizes both preclinical and clinical available data regarding EGFR genomic alterations as prognostic and predictive factors.

  12. Predictive value of specific risk factors, symptoms and signs, in diagnosing obstructive sleep apnoea and its severity.

    PubMed

    Pillar; Peled; Katz; Lavie

    1994-12-01

    A positive diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is based on a combination of characteristic symptoms and polysomnographic findings. The present study evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of several risk factors, signs and symptoms in predicting an Apnoea Index in 86 patients referred to the sleep laboratory with suspected OSA. All 86 subjects completed a detailed questionnaire, were interviewed, underwent a brief physical examination, and then a whole-night polysomnographic study. Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that self reporting on apnoeas, neck circumference index (NCI), age, and a tendency to fall asleep unintentionally, were all significant positive predictors of apnoea index (AI), explaining 41.8% of the variability. The sensitivity of the model for predicting OSA (taking OSA as AI > 10) was 92.2%, specificity was 18.2% and the positive predictive value was 76.6%. Raising the cut-off AI values resulted in decreased sensitivity and increased specificity. Applying the predicting equation of AI to another group of 50 patients referred to the sleep laboratory with suspected OSA revealed similar results. However, running the equation on 105 offspring of OSA patients who did not complain of OSA-associated symptoms resulted in 32% sensitivity and 94% specificity in predicting OSA. It is concluded that questionnaires, interviews and physical examination, can only vaguely predict AI, and cannot replace polysomnographic recordings. However, the low rates of false negative in predicting AI > 10, and the low rates of false positive in predicting AI > 50, can be used for specific purposes.

  13. Prognostic value of survivin and EGFR protein expression in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Minghui; Zhang, Xiaosan; Zhao, Shu; Wang, Yan; Di, Wenyu; Zhao, Gangling; Yang, Maopeng; Zhang, Qingyuan

    2014-12-01

    Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a particular type of breast cancer which is characterized by its biological aggressiveness, worse prognosis, and lack of prognostic markers or therapeutic targets in contrast with hormonal receptor-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancers. We aimed to evaluate survivin and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression and their prognostic value and determine their relationships with the clinicopathological parameters of TNBC. A total of 136 patients who had undergone a resection of primary TNBC were enrolled at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from March 2003 to September 2005. Expression of ER, PR, HER2, EGFR, and survivin was assessed by immunohistochemistry. The association of TNBC and other clinicopathological variables and the prognostic value of survivin and EGFR expression were evaluated. Survivin was expressed in 62 (45.6 %) cases and EGFR was expressed in 82 (60.3 %) cases. Survivin expression was associated with menopausal status (P = 0.011), tumor size (P = 0.037), and lymph node status (P = 0.001). EGFR expression was associated with menopausal status (P = 0.029), lymph node status (P = 0.004), P53 expression (P = 0.001), Ki-67 expression (P = 0.028), and lymphatic vascular invasion (P = 0.037). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size (hazard ratio (HR) 1.587, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.081–2.330, P = 0.018 for disease-free survival (DFS); HR 1.606, 95%CI 1.096–2.354, P = 0.015 for overall survival (OS)), lymph node status (HR 2.873, 95%CI 1.544–5.344, P = 0.001 for DFS; HR 2.915, 95%CI 1.553–5.471, P = 0.001 for OS), tumor grade (HR 1.914, 95%CI 1.218–3.007, P = 0.005 for DFS; HR 1.983, 95%CI 1.228–3.203, P = 0.005 for OS), EGFR (HR 3.008, 95%CI 1.331–6.792, P = 0.008 for DFS; HR 3.151, 95%CI 1.374–7.226, P = 0.007 for OS), and survivin (HR 1

  14. Predicting response and survival in chemotherapy-treated triple-negative breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Prat, A; Lluch, A; Albanell, J; Barry, W T; Fan, C; Chacón, J I; Parker, J S; Calvo, L; Plazaola, A; Arcusa, A; Seguí-Palmer, M A; Burgues, O; Ribelles, N; Rodriguez-Lescure, A; Guerrero, A; Ruiz-Borrego, M; Munarriz, B; López, J A; Adamo, B; Cheang, M C U; Li, Y; Hu, Z; Gulley, M L; Vidal, M J; Pitcher, B N; Liu, M C; Citron, M L; Ellis, M J; Mardis, E; Vickery, T; Hudis, C A; Winer, E P; Carey, L A; Caballero, R; Carrasco, E; Martín, M; Perou, C M; Alba, E

    2014-01-01

    Background: In this study, we evaluated the ability of gene expression profiles to predict chemotherapy response and survival in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods: Gene expression and clinical–pathological data were evaluated in five independent cohorts, including three randomised clinical trials for a total of 1055 patients with TNBC, basal-like disease (BLBC) or both. Previously defined intrinsic molecular subtype and a proliferation signature were determined and tested. Each signature was tested using multivariable logistic regression models (for pCR (pathological complete response)) and Cox models (for survival). Within TNBC, interactions between each signature and the basal-like subtype (vs other subtypes) for predicting either pCR or survival were investigated. Results: Within TNBC, all intrinsic subtypes were identified but BLBC predominated (55–81%). Significant associations between genomic signatures and response and survival after chemotherapy were only identified within BLBC and not within TNBC as a whole. In particular, high expression of a previously identified proliferation signature, or low expression of the luminal A signature, was found independently associated with pCR and improved survival following chemotherapy across different cohorts. Significant interaction tests were only obtained between each signature and the BLBC subtype for prediction of chemotherapy response or survival. Conclusions: The proliferation signature predicts response and improved survival after chemotherapy, but only within BLBC. This highlights the clinical implications of TNBC heterogeneity, and suggests that future clinical trials focused on this phenotypic subtype should consider stratifying patients as having BLBC or not. PMID:25101563

  15. Clinical value of whole-blood interferon-gamma assay in patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis and AFB smear- and polymerase chain reaction-negative bronchial aspirates.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jaehee; Lee, Shin Yup; Yoo, Seung Soo; Cha, Seung Ick; Won, Dong Il; Park, Jae Yong; Lee, Won-Kil; Kim, Chang Ho

    2012-07-01

    Combining a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test with bronchoscopy is frequently performed to allow a rapid diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). However, limited data are available concerning clinical judgment in patients with suspected PTB and AFB smear- and PCR-negative bronchial aspirates (BA). The present study evaluated the usefulness of whole-blood QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) testing in these patients. Of 166 patients with suspected PTB who had undergone bronchoscopy because of smear-negative sputum or inadequate sputum production, 93 (56%) were diagnosed with culture-positive PTB. Seventy-four patients were either AFB smear- or PCR-positive. In the 75 patients whose BA AFB smear and PCR results were both negative, 19 were finally diagnosed with PTB by culture. The QFT test had a negative predictive value of 91% for PTB. The QFT test may be useful for excluding PTB in patients with suspected PTB whose BA AFB smear and PCR results are both negative.

  16. OSPREY Predicts Resistance Mutations Using Positive and Negative Computational Protein Design.

    PubMed

    Ojewole, Adegoke; Lowegard, Anna; Gainza, Pablo; Reeve, Stephanie M; Georgiev, Ivelin; Anderson, Amy C; Donald, Bruce R

    2017-01-01

    Drug resistance in protein targets is an increasingly common phenomenon that reduces the efficacy of both existing and new antibiotics. However, knowledge of future resistance mutations during pre-clinical phases of drug development would enable the design of novel antibiotics that are robust against not only known resistant mutants, but also against those that have not yet been clinically observed. Computational structure-based protein design (CSPD) is a transformative field that enables the prediction of protein sequences with desired biochemical properties such as binding affinity and specificity to a target. The use of CSPD to predict previously unseen resistance mutations represents one of the frontiers of computational protein design. In a recent study (Reeve et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112(3):749-754, 2015), we used our OSPREY (Open Source Protein REdesign for You) suite of CSPD algorithms to prospectively predict resistance mutations that arise in the active site of the dihydrofolate reductase enzyme from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (SaDHFR) in response to selective pressure from an experimental competitive inhibitor. We demonstrated that our top predicted candidates are indeed viable resistant mutants. Since that study, we have significantly enhanced the capabilities of OSPREY with not only improved modeling of backbone flexibility, but also efficient multi-state design, fast sparse approximations, partitioned continuous rotamers for more accurate energy bounds, and a computationally efficient representation of molecular-mechanics and quantum-mechanical energy functions. Here, using SaDHFR as an example, we present a protocol for resistance prediction using the latest version of OSPREY. Specifically, we show how to use a combination of positive and negative design to predict active site escape mutations that maintain the enzyme's catalytic function but selectively ablate binding of an inhibitor.

  17. OSPREY Predicts Resistance Mutations using Positive and Negative Computational Protein Design

    PubMed Central

    Ojewole, Adegoke; Lowegard, Anna; Gainza, Pablo; Reeve, Stephanie M.; Georgiev, Ivelin; Anderson, Amy C.; Donald, Bruce R.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Drug resistance in protein targets is an increasingly common phenomenon that reduces the efficacy of both existing and new antibiotics. However, knowledge of future resistance mutations during pre-clinical phases of drug development would enable the design of novel antibiotics that are robust against not only known resistant mutants, but also against those that have not yet been clinically observed. Computational structure-based protein design (CSPD) is a transformative field that enables the prediction of protein sequences with desired biochemical properties such as binding affinity and specificity to a target. The use of CSPD to predict previously unseen resistance mutations represents one of the frontiers of computational protein design. In a recent study (1), we used our OSPREY (Open Source Protein REdesign for You) suite of CSPD algorithms to prospectively predict resistance mutations that arise in the active site of the dihydrofolate reductase enzyme from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (SaDHFR) in response to selective pressure from an experimental competitive inhibitor. We demonstrated that our top predicted candidates are indeed viable resistant mutants. Since that study, we have significantly enhanced the capabilities of OSPREY with not only improved modeling of backbone flexibility, but also efficient multi-state design, fast sparse approximations, partitioned rotamers for more accurate energy bounds, and a computationally efficient representation of molecular-mechanics and quantum-mechanical energy functions. Here, using SaDHFR as an example, we present a protocol for resistance prediction using the latest version of OSPREY. Specifically, we show how to use a combination of positive and negative design to predict active site escape mutations that maintain the enzyme’s catalytic function but selectively ablate binding of an inhibitor. PMID:27914058

  18. Interpreting incremental value of markers added to risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Pencina, Karol M; Janssens, A Cecile J W; Greenland, Philip

    2012-09-15

    The discrimination of a risk prediction model measures that model's ability to distinguish between subjects with and without events. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a popular measure of discrimination. However, the AUC has recently been criticized for its insensitivity in model comparisons in which the baseline model has performed well. Thus, 2 other measures have been proposed to capture improvement in discrimination for nested models: the integrated discrimination improvement and the continuous net reclassification improvement. In the present study, the authors use mathematical relations and numerical simulations to quantify the improvement in discrimination offered by candidate markers of different strengths as measured by their effect sizes. They demonstrate that the increase in the AUC depends on the strength of the baseline model, which is true to a lesser degree for the integrated discrimination improvement. On the other hand, the continuous net reclassification improvement depends only on the effect size of the candidate variable and its correlation with other predictors. These measures are illustrated using the Framingham model for incident atrial fibrillation. The authors conclude that the increase in the AUC, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement offer complementary information and thus recommend reporting all 3 alongside measures characterizing the performance of the final model.

  19. Diagnostic value of sperm DNA fragmentation and sperm high-magnification for predicting outcome of assisted reproduction treatment

    PubMed Central

    López, Gemma; Lafuente, Rafael; Checa, Miguel A; Carreras, Ramón; Brassesco, Mario

    2013-01-01

    Over the last years, major improvements in the field of male infertility diagnosis have been achieved. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic usefulness of sperm DNA integrity and sperm vacuolisation for predicting outcome in infertile couples undergoing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments. A cohort study from 152 infertile couples undergoing sperm DNA fragmentation and high-magnification tests prior to an assisted reproduction treatment was designed. We found that the most predictive cutoff for pregnancy was 25.5% of DNA fragmentation with a negative predictive value of 72.7% (P=0.02). For the degree of vacuolisation, the best predictor of pregnancy was 73.5% of vacuolated sperm grades III+IV with a negative predictive value of 39.4% (P=0.09), which was not statistically significant. In conclusion, sperm DNA fragmentation greater than 25.5% could be associated with higher probability of failure IVF treatment. Regarding the results of the sperm analysis at high magnification, they do not allow us to predict whether or not patients will become pregnant. PMID:23912311

  20. Diagnostic value of sperm DNA fragmentation and sperm high-magnification for predicting outcome of assisted reproduction treatment.

    PubMed

    López, Gemma; Lafuente, Rafael; Checa, Miguel A; Carreras, Ramón; Brassesco, Mario

    2013-11-01

    Over the last years, major improvements in the field of male infertility diagnosis have been achieved. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic usefulness of sperm DNA integrity and sperm vacuolisation for predicting outcome in infertile couples undergoing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments. A cohort study from 152 infertile couples undergoing sperm DNA fragmentation and high-magnification tests prior to an assisted reproduction treatment was designed. We found that the most predictive cutoff for pregnancy was 25.5% of DNA fragmentation with a negative predictive value of 72.7% (P=0.02). For the degree of vacuolisation, the best predictor of pregnancy was 73.5% of vacuolated sperm grades III+IV with a negative predictive value of 39.4% (P=0.09), which was not statistically significant. In conclusion, sperm DNA fragmentation greater than 25.5% could be associated with higher probability of failure IVF treatment. Regarding the results of the sperm analysis at high magnification, they do not allow us to predict whether or not patients will become pregnant.

  1. Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model: A case study in China.

    PubMed

    Ma, Zhuanglin; Zhang, Honglu; Chien, Steven I-Jy; Wang, Jin; Dong, Chunjiao

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between crash frequency and potential influence factors, the accident data for events occurring on a 50km long expressway in China, including 567 crash records (2006-2008), were collected and analyzed. Both the fixed-length and the homogeneous longitudinal grade methods were applied to divide the study expressway section into segments. A negative binomial (NB) model and a random effect negative binomial (RENB) model were developed to predict crash frequency. The parameters of both models were determined using the maximum likelihood (ML) method, and the mixed stepwise procedure was applied to examine the significance of explanatory variables. Three explanatory variables, including longitudinal grade, road width, and ratio of longitudinal grade and curve radius (RGR), were found as significantly affecting crash frequency. The marginal effects of significant explanatory variables to the crash frequency were analyzed. The model performance was determined by the relative prediction error and the cumulative standardized residual. The results show that the RENB model outperforms the NB model. It was also found that the model performance with the fixed-length segment method is superior to that with the homogeneous longitudinal grade segment method.

  2. Spontaneous eye blink rate predicts learning from negative, but not positive, outcomes.

    PubMed

    Slagter, Heleen A; Georgopoulou, Katerina; Frank, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    A large body of research shows that striatal dopamine critically affects the extent to which we learn from the positive and negative outcomes of our decisions. In this study, we examined the relationship between reinforcement learning and spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR), a cheap, non-invasive, and easy to obtain marker of striatal dopaminergic activity. Based on previous findings from pharmacological and patient studies, our main prediction was that in healthy individuals, low blink rates (and concomitant lower striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with better learning from negative choices, while high blink rates (and concomitant higher striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with learning from positive choices. Behavioral analyses showed that in healthy individuals, lower blink rates were indeed associated with greater learning from negative outcomes, indicating that lower dopamine levels per se may enhance avoidance learning. Yet, higher EBR was not associated with better learning from positive outcomes. These observations support the notion that sEBR reflects tonic dopamine levels, and suggest that sEBR may specifically relate to dopamine D2 receptor function, given the importance of the dopaminergic D2 pathway in avoidance learning. More generally, these findings highlight the usefulness of sEBR as a non-invasive and cheap method for assessing the relationship between striatal dopaminergic function and behavior.

  3. Evidence That a Psychopathology Interactome Has Diagnostic Value, Predicting Clinical Needs: An Experience Sampling Study

    PubMed Central

    van Os, Jim; Lataster, Tineke; Delespaul, Philippe; Wichers, Marieke; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2014-01-01

    Background For the purpose of diagnosis, psychopathology can be represented as categories of mental disorder, symptom dimensions or symptom networks. Also, psychopathology can be assessed at different levels of temporal resolution (monthly episodes, daily fluctuating symptoms, momentary fluctuating mental states). We tested the diagnostic value, in terms of prediction of treatment needs, of the combination of symptom networks and momentary assessment level. Method Fifty-seven patients with a psychotic disorder participated in an ESM study, capturing psychotic experiences, emotions and circumstances at 10 semi-random moments in the flow of daily life over a period of 6 days. Symptoms were assessed by interview with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS); treatment needs were assessed using the Camberwell Assessment of Need (CAN). Results Psychotic symptoms assessed with the PANSS (Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) were strongly associated with psychotic experiences assessed with ESM (Momentary Psychotic Experiences). However, the degree to which Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was determined by level of momentary negative affect (higher levels increasing probability of Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifesting as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), momentary positive affect (higher levels decreasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), greater persistence of Momentary Psychotic Experiences (persistence predicting increased probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) and momentary environmental stress associated with events and activities (higher levels increasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms). Similarly, the degree to which momentary visual or auditory hallucinations manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was strongly contingent on the level of accompanying momentary paranoid delusional ideation. Momentary Psychotic Experiences were associated with CAN unmet treatment needs, over and above PANSS

  4. Evaluating the negative or valuing the positive? Neural mechanisms supporting feedback-based learning across development.

    PubMed

    van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K; Zanolie, Kiki; Rombouts, Serge A R B; Raijmakers, Maartje E J; Crone, Eveline A

    2008-09-17

    How children learn from positive and negative performance feedback lies at the foundation of successful learning and is therefore of great importance for educational practice. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the neural developmental changes related to feedback-based learning when performing a rule search and application task. Behavioral results from three age groups (8-9, 11-13, and 18-25 years of age) demonstrated that, compared with adults, 8- to 9-year-old children performed disproportionally more inaccurately after receiving negative feedback relative to positive feedback. Additionally, imaging data pointed toward a qualitative difference in how children and adults use performance feedback. That is, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and superior parietal cortex were more active after negative feedback for adults, but after positive feedback for children (8-9 years of age). For 11- to 13-year-olds, these regions did not show differential feedback sensitivity, suggesting that the transition occurs around this age. Pre-supplementary motor area/anterior cingulate cortex, in contrast, was more active after negative feedback in both 11- to 13-year-olds and adults, but not 8- to 9-year-olds. Together, the current data show that cognitive control areas are differentially engaged during feedback-based learning across development. Adults engage these regions after signals of response adjustment (i.e., negative feedback). Young children engage these regions after signals of response continuation (i.e., positive feedback). The neural activation patterns found in 11- to 13-year-olds indicate a transition around this age toward an increased influence of negative feedback on performance adjustment. This is the first developmental fMRI study to compare qualitative changes in brain activation during feedback learning across distinct stages of development.

  5. Bidirectional-Compounding Effects of Rumination and Negative Emotion in Predicting Impulsive Behavior: Implications for Emotional Cascades.

    PubMed

    Selby, Edward A; Kranzler, Amy; Panza, Emily; Fehling, Kara B

    2016-04-01

    Influenced by chaos theory, the emotional cascade model proposes that rumination and negative emotion may promote each other in a self-amplifying cycle that increases over time. Accordingly, exponential-compounding effects may better describe the relationship between rumination and negative emotion when they occur in impulsive persons, and predict impulsive behavior. Forty-seven community and undergraduate participants who reported frequent engagement in impulsive behaviors monitored their ruminative thoughts and negative emotion multiple times daily for two weeks using digital recording devices. Hypotheses were tested using cross-lagged mixed model analyses. Findings indicated that rumination predicted subsequent elevations in rumination that lasted over extended periods of time. Rumination and negative emotion predicted increased levels of each other at subsequent assessments, and exponential functions for these associations were supported. Results also supported a synergistic effect between rumination and negative emotion, predicting larger elevations in subsequent rumination and negative emotion than when one variable alone was elevated. Finally, there were synergistic effects of rumination and negative emotion in predicting number of impulsive behaviors subsequently reported. These findings are consistent with the emotional cascade model in suggesting that momentary rumination and negative emotion progressively propagate and magnify each other over time in impulsive people, promoting impulsive behavior.

  6. Predictive value of D-dimer test for recurrent venous thromboembolism at hospital discharge in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yong; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zhang, Hong-Liang; Luo, Qin; Zhao, Zhi-Hui; Zhao, Qing

    2011-11-01

    D-dimer can be used to exclude acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for its high negative predictive value (NPV). Also, it is a predictor of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) after anticoagulation withdrawal. The aim of the present study was to assess the predictive value of D-dimer for recurrent VTE when tested at hospital discharge. Plasma D-dimer levels were repeatedly measured at hospital discharge in 204 consecutive patients with the first episode of acute pulmonary embolism. Patients were categorized to two groups by D-dimer levels at hospital discharge and followed up at 3, 6, and 12 months and yearly thereafter. The primary end point was symptomatic, recurrent fatal or nonfatal VTE. D-dimer levels were persistently abnormal in 66 patients (32%). After 31±19 months follow-up, patients with persistently abnormal D-dimer level levels showed a higher rate of of recurrent VTE (14 patients, 21%) compared to those with D-dimer regression (8 patients, 6%) (P = 0.001). At the multivariate analysis, after adjustment for other relevant factors, persistently abnormal D-dimer level levels were an independent predictor of recurrent VTE in all subjects investigated, (hazard ratio, 4.10; 95% CI, 1.61-10.39; P = 0.003), especially in those with unprovoked PE (hazard ratio, 4.61; 95% CI, 1.85-11.49; P = 0.001). The negative predictive value of D-dimer was 94.2 and 92.9% in all subjects or those with unprovoked PE, respectively. Persistently abnormal D-dimer level levels at hospital discharge have a high negative predictive value for recurrence in patients with acute pulmonary embolism, especially in subjects with an unprovoked previous event.

  7. Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.

  8. Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it. PMID:26241496

  9. School Leadership in Turbulent Times and the Value of Negative Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Given the turbulence of the contemporary education environment this paper argues it is necessary to adopt more flexible approaches to leadership than has traditionally been the case and involving new ways of learning and behaviours. In this regard, the paper investigates the paradoxical concept of "negative capability" and its potential…

  10. Task difficulty affects the predictive process indexed by visual mismatch negativity.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Motohiro; Takeda, Yuji

    2013-01-01

    Visual mismatch negativity (MMN) is an event-related brain potential (ERP) component that is elicited by prediction-incongruent events in successive visual stimulation. Previous oddball studies have shown that visual MMN in response to task-irrelevant deviant stimuli is insensitive to the manipulation of task difficulty, which supports the notion that visual MMN reflects attention-independent predictive processes. In these studies, however, visual MMN was evaluated in deviant-minus-standard difference waves, which may lead to an underestimation of the effects of task difficulty due to the possible superposition of N1-difference reflecting refractory effects. In the present study, we investigated the effects of task difficulty on visual MMN, less contaminated by N1-difference. While the participant performed a size-change detection task regarding a continuously-presented central fixation circle, we presented oddball sequences consisting of deviant and standard bar stimuli with different orientations (9.1 and 90.9%) and equiprobable sequences consisting of 11 types of control bar stimuli with different orientations (9.1% each) at the surrounding visual fields. Task difficulty was manipulated by varying the magnitude of the size-change. We found that the peak latencies of visual MMN evaluated in the deviant-minus-control difference waves were delayed as a function of task difficulty. Therefore, in contrast to the previous understanding, the present findings support the notion that visual MMN is associated with attention-demanding predictive processes.

  11. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  12. Predictive value of procalcitonin decrease in patients with severe sepsis: a prospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction This prospective study investigated the predictive value of procalcitonin (PCT) for survival in 242 adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock treated in intensive care. Methods PCT was analyzed from blood samples of all patients at baseline, and 155 patients 72 hours later. Results The median PCT serum concentration on day 0 was 5.0 ng/ml (interquartile range (IQR) 1.0 and 20.1 ng/ml) and 1.3 ng/ml (IQR 0.5 and 5.8 ng/ml) 72 hours later. Hospital mortality was 25.6% (62/242). Median PCT concentrations in patients with community-acquired infections were higher than with nosocomial infections (P = 0.001). Blood cultures were positive in 28.5% of patients (n = 69), and severe sepsis with positive blood cultures was associated with higher PCT levels than with negative cultures (P = < 0.001). Patients with septic shock had higher PCT concentrations than patients without (P = 0.02). PCT concentrations did not differ between hospital survivors and nonsurvivors (P = 0.64 and P = 0.99, respectively), but mortality was lower in patients whose PCT concentration decreased > 50% (by 72 hours) compared to those with a < 50% decrease (12.2% vs. 29.8%, P = 0.007). Conclusions PCT concentrations were higher in more severe forms of severe sepsis, but a substantial concentration decrease was more important for survival than absolute values. PMID:21078153

  13. Diagnostic value of IL-6, CRP, WBC, and absolute neutrophil count to predict serious bacterial infection in febrile infants.

    PubMed

    Zarkesh, Marjaneh; Sedaghat, Fatemeh; Heidarzadeh, Abtin; Tabrizi, Manizheh; Bolooki-Moghadam, Kobra; Ghesmati, Soheil

    2015-07-01

    Since clinical manifestations of most febrile infants younger than three months old are nonspecific, differentiation of Serious Bacterial Infection (SBI) from self-limiting viral illness is a significant challenge for pediatricians. This study was performed to assess the diagnostic value of white blood cell count (WBC), Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC), Interleukin -6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) level to predict SBI in febrile infants younger than three months old who were hospitalized. This was a diagnostic test validation study. In this prospective study, 195 febrile infants admitted to 17 Shahrivar Hospital underwent a full sepsis workup including blood, urine, cerebrospinal fluid cultures and chest radiography. WBC count, ANC and CRP and Il-6 level were measured in all patients. Serum IL-6 concentration was measured by Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay test. Then diagnostic, values of these tests for predicting SBI was compared with each other. Of total cases, 112 (57.4%) infants were male. SBI was diagnosed in 29 (14.9%) patients. The most common type of SBI was Urinary Tract Infection (UTI). Serum IL-6 (³20pg/dl) had sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 79/1%, 91.6%,75.4%, 60.3%, respectively and for CRP (³ 10mg/l) values were 81.6%, 89.8%, 78.2%, and 52%,respectively. The predictive values of CRP and IL-6 were higher than WBC and ANC. IL-6 and CRP are more valid and better diagnostic markers for predicting SBI than WBC count and ANC. CRP level seems to be an accessible and cost-effective marker for early diagnosis of SBI. Since by no marker we can totally rule out SBI in febrile infants < three months of age, it is recommended to administer systemic antibiotics until culture results become available.

  14. ClubSub-P: Cluster-Based Subcellular Localization Prediction for Gram-Negative Bacteria and Archaea

    PubMed Central

    Paramasivam, Nagarajan; Linke, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    The subcellular localization (SCL) of proteins provides important clues to their function in a cell. In our efforts to predict useful vaccine targets against Gram-negative bacteria, we noticed that misannotated start codons frequently lead to wrongly assigned SCLs. This and other problems in SCL prediction, such as the relatively high false-positive and false-negative rates of some tools, can be avoided by applying multiple prediction tools to groups of homologous proteins. Here we present ClubSub-P, an online database that combines existing SCL prediction tools into a consensus pipeline from more than 600 proteomes of fully sequenced microorganisms. On top of the consensus prediction at the level of single sequences, the tool uses clusters of homologous proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and from Archaea to eliminate false-positive and false-negative predictions. ClubSub-P can assign the SCL of proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and Archaea with high precision. The database is searchable, and can easily be expanded using either new bacterial genomes or new prediction tools as they become available. This will further improve the performance of the SCL prediction, as well as the detection of misannotated start codons and other annotation errors. ClubSub-P is available online at http://toolkit.tuebingen.mpg.de/clubsubp/ PMID:22073040

  15. Using negative feedback to guide behavior: impairments on the first 4 cards of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test predict negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Vogel, Sally J; Strauss, Gregory P; Allen, Daniel N

    2013-12-01

    Research has demonstrated that individuals with schizophrenia fail to appropriately use negative feedback to guide learning. These learning deficits are thought to arise from abnormalities in midbrain dopamine activity. Primary and enduring negative symptoms are also associated with abnormal dopamine activity and are expected to produce more severe deficits in learning when they present in individuals with schizophrenia. The current study examines this matter by comparing individuals with deficit syndrome schizophrenia, which is characterized by primary and enduring negative symptoms, to individuals with nondeficit syndrome schizophrenia and to normal controls in their use of positive feedback and negative feedback to guide learning on the first four cards of the WCST. Participants included 67 individuals with schizophrenia (15 deficit; 52 nondeficit syndrome) and 51 healthy controls. Accuracy data from the first 4 cards of the WCST and measures of global test performance were examined. Individuals with schizophrenia were significantly less accurate than controls in their performance on early (pre-shift) WCST trials, and this impairment was significantly greater in patients with deficit than nondeficit schizophrenia. Additionally, accuracy across the first 4 WCST cards significantly predicted the number of categories completed and percentage of perseverative errors across the entire test. These findings suggest that negative symptoms of schizophrenia are associated with difficulty using negative feedback to adaptively guide behavior, and are consistent with the notion that abnormal DA signaling contributes to the higher-order executive functioning impairments seen in schizophrenia with severe negative symptoms.

  16. Inter-individual differences in the experience of negative emotion predict variations in functional brain architecture

    PubMed Central

    Petrican, Raluca; Saverino, Cristina; Rosenbaum, R. Shayna; Grady, Cheryl

    2016-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that two spatially distinct neuroanatomical networks, the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the default mode network (DMN), support externally and internally oriented cognition, respectively, and are functionally regulated by a third, frontoparietal control network (FPC). Interactions among these networks contribute to normal variations in cognitive functioning and to the aberrant affective profiles present in certain clinical conditions, such as major depression. Nevertheless, their links to non-clinical variations in affective functioning are still poorly understood. To address this issue, we used fMRI to measure the intrinsic functional interactions among these networks in a sample of predominantly younger women (N = 162) from the Human Connectome Project. Consistent with the previously documented dichotomous motivational orientations (i.e., withdrawal versus approach) associated with sadness versus anger, we hypothesized that greater sadness would predict greater DMN (rather than DAN) functional dominance, whereas greater anger would predict the opposite. Overall, there was evidence of greater DAN (rather than DMN) functional dominance, but this pattern was modulated by current experience of specific negative emotions, as well as subclinical depressive and anxiety symptoms. Thus, greater levels of currently experienced sadness and subclinical depression independently predicted weaker DAN functional dominance (i.e., weaker DAN-FPC functional connectivity), likely reflecting reduced goal-directed attention towards the external perceptual environment. Complementarily, greater levels of currently experienced anger and subclinical anxiety predicted greater DAN functional dominance (i.e., greater DAN-FPC functional connectivity and, for anxiety only, also weaker DMN-FPC coupling). Our findings suggest that distinct affective states and subclinical mood symptoms have dissociable neural signatures, reflective of the symbiotic relationship

  17. Difference analysis method for negative bias temperature instability lifetime prediction in deeply scaled pMOSFETs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Yiming; Ji, Xiaoli; Zhang, Chengxu; Huang, Xiaolin; Xu, Yue; Yan, Feng

    2017-04-01

    The fluctuation significantly affects the lifetime prediction of negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) for deeply scaled pMOSFETs. In this paper, we present a novel difference method to separate the time dependent fluctuation-related component from the NBTI quasi-static component in the threshold voltage shift. The extracted fluctuation-related component exhibits weak temperature and time dependences which is consistent with the characteristic of as-grown defect-induced trapping and detrapping while the quasi-static component presents electrical behaviors of generated-defect-induced NBTI degradation. On the basis of these results, a composite NBTI model is constructed and lifetime projection is derived for the small pMOSFETs.

  18. Negative Ion Photoelectron Spectroscopy Confirms the Prediction that (CO)5 and (CO)6 Each Has a Singlet Ground State

    SciTech Connect

    Bao, Xiaoguang; Hrovat, David; Borden, Weston; Wang, Xue B.

    2013-03-20

    Cyclobutane-1,2,3,4-tetraone has been both predicted and found to have a triplet ground state, in which a b2g MO and an a2u MO is each singly occupied. In contrast, (CO)5 and (CO)6 have each been predicted to have a singlet ground state. This prediction has been tested by generating the (CO)5 - and (CO)6 - anions in the gas-phase by electrospray vaporization of solutions of, respectively, the croconate (CO)52- and rhodizonate (CO)62- dianions. The negative ion photoelectron (NIPE) spectra of the (CO)5•- radical anion give electron affinity (EA) = 3.830 eV and a singlet ground state for (CO)5, with the triplet higher in energy by 0.850 eV (19.6 kcal/mol). The NIPE spectra of the (CO)6•- radical anion give EA = 3.785 eV and a singlet ground state for (CO)6, with the triplet higher in energy by 0.915 eV (21.1 kcal/mol). (RO)CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//(U)B3LYP/6-311+G(2df) calculations give EA values that are only ca. 1 kcal/mol lower than those measured and EST values that are only 2 - 3 kcal/mol higher than those obtained from the NIPE spectra. Thus, the calculations support the interpretations of the NIPE spectra and the finding, based on the spectra, that (CO)5 and (CO)6 both have a singlet ground state.

  19. Value of Superficial Cultures for Prediction of Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infection in Long-Term Catheters: a Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín-Rabadán, P.; Echenagusia, A.; Camúñez, F.; Rodríguez-Rosales, G.; Simó, G.; Echenagusia, M.; Bouza, E.

    2013-01-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports. PMID:23850957

  20. The predictive value of transcranial sonography in clinically diagnosed patients with early stage Parkinson's disease: comparison with DAT PET scans.

    PubMed

    Liu, Ping; Li, Xin; Li, Fang-Fei; Ou-Yang, Qiao-Hong; Zhang, Hong-Xia; Feng, Tao

    2014-10-17

    Early and correct diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is critical for patient counseling and therapeutic management. The diagnostic accuracy of transcranial sonography of substantia nigra (SN-TCS) for early stage PD patients remains controversial. Dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging is sensitive to detect presynaptic dopamine neuronal dysfunction, and has been studied as a diagnostic tool for degenerative Parkinsonism. To investigate the predictive value of SN-TCS for the DAT PET scans in clinically diagnosed early stage PD patients, we performed the SN-TCS and DAT Positron Emission Computed Tomography (PET) imaging examinations on 53 patients. Using the DAT PET results as clinical gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity of TCS was 68.75% and 40% respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) of an abnormal TCS for an abnormal PET scan was 91.67%. However, the negative predictive value (NPV) for a normal PET scan was only 11.76%. The false negative rate was 31.25%. In 35 patients, the result of the SN-TCD was in accordance with the result of the DAT PET scan (Kappa=0.042, P>0.05). The consistency between SN-TCS and PET scans was poor. We conclude that SN-TCS would not be used as a diagnostic tool for early stage PD patients. Negative result of TCS could not exclude the diagnosis of PD. Further tests like DAT-PET is needed for validation. On the other hand, positive SN-TCS will reduce the added diagnostic value of a presynaptic neuronimaging scan.

  1. Predictive value of serum uric acid in hospitalized adolescents and adults with acute asthma

    PubMed Central

    Abdulnaby, Nasser Keshar; Sayed, Ashraf Othman; Shalaby, Nehad Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    Background High serum uric acid (sUA) is an indicator of oxidative stress and is linked to tissue hypoxia in asthma. The objective of this case series was to investigate the prognostic role of sUA in patients with acute asthma exacerbations and the link between sUA and spirometric lung tests. Patients and methods This cross-sectional observational study included 120 patients with acute asthma exacerbations and 120 controls, categorized according to peak expiratory flow rate into moderate, and severe and life-threatening asthma. On admission, a detailed history was obtained and investigations were carried out regarding oxygen saturation (SaO2), arterial blood gas, spirometry, sUA, number of asthma exacerbations, smoking status, history of previous hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and mechanical ventilation. Results The current study revealed higher sUA in asthmatic patients compared with healthy subjects and in severe asthma patients compared with moderate asthma patients (P<0.001). A positive correlation of sUA with asthma severity, number of asthma exacerbations and smoking index (r=0.6, 0.42 and 0.29, respectively, P<0.001) and a negative correlation of sUA with SaO2, partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2), percent predicted forced vital capacity, percent predicted forced expiratory volume (FEV%) and peak expiratory flow rate percent of predicted (PEFR%; r=−0.48, −0.29, −0.44, −0.44 and −0.66, respectively, P<0.001) were observed. Degree of asthma severity, number of asthma exacerbations, and smoking index were significant predictors of high sUA (R2=0.43, P<0.001) in multiple linear regression model 1. SaO2 and PEFR% were significant predictors of high uric acid (R2=0.50, P<0.001) in model 2. The sensitivity and specificity of sUA in predicting severity of asthma at the cutoff point of 6.3 mg/dL were 80% and 90%, respectively. The odds ratios of sUA, number of asthma exacerbations, and asthma duration were 5.4, 1.95 and 1

  2. Methylome sequencing in triple-negative breast cancer reveals distinct methylation clusters with prognostic value.

    PubMed

    Stirzaker, Clare; Zotenko, Elena; Song, Jenny Z; Qu, Wenjia; Nair, Shalima S; Locke, Warwick J; Stone, Andrew; Armstong, Nicola J; Robinson, Mark D; Dobrovic, Alexander; Avery-Kiejda, Kelly A; Peters, Kate M; French, Juliet D; Stein, Sandra; Korbie, Darren J; Trau, Matt; Forbes, John F; Scott, Rodney J; Brown, Melissa A; Francis, Glenn D; Clark, Susan J

    2015-02-02

    Epigenetic alterations in the cancer methylome are common in breast cancer and provide novel options for tumour stratification. Here, we perform whole-genome methylation capture sequencing on small amounts of DNA isolated from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and matched normal samples. We identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) enriched with promoters associated with transcription factor binding sites and DNA hypersensitive sites. Importantly, we stratify TNBCs into three distinct methylation clusters associated with better or worse prognosis and identify 17 DMRs that show a strong association with overall survival, including DMRs located in the Wilms tumour 1 (WT1) gene, bi-directional-promoter and antisense WT1-AS. Our data reveal that coordinated hypermethylation can occur in oestrogen receptor-negative disease, and that characterizing the epigenetic framework provides a potential signature to stratify TNBCs. Together, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of profiling the cancer methylome with limited archival tissue to identify regulatory regions associated with cancer.

  3. Evaluation of the efficiency of artificial neural networks for genetic value prediction.

    PubMed

    Silva, G N; Tomaz, R S; Sant'Anna, I C; Carneiro, V Q; Cruz, C D; Nascimento, M

    2016-03-28

    Artificial neural networks have shown great potential when applied to breeding programs. In this study, we propose the use of artificial neural networks as a viable alternative to conventional prediction methods. We conduct a thorough evaluation of the efficiency of these networks with respect to the prediction of breeding values. Therefore, we considered eight simulated scenarios, and for the purpose of genetic value prediction, seven statistical parameters in addition to the phenotypic mean in a network designed as a multilayer perceptron. After an evaluation of different network configurations, the results demonstrated the superiority of neural networks compared to estimation procedures based on linear models, and indicated high predictive accuracy and network efficiency.

  4. Cerebrospinal fluid and plasma oxytocin concentrations are positively correlated and negatively predict anxiety in children.

    PubMed

    Carson, D S; Berquist, S W; Trujillo, T H; Garner, J P; Hannah, S L; Hyde, S A; Sumiyoshi, R D; Jackson, L P; Moss, J K; Strehlow, M C; Cheshier, S H; Partap, S; Hardan, A Y; Parker, K J

    2015-09-01

    The neuropeptide oxytocin (OXT) exerts anxiolytic and prosocial effects in the central nervous system of rodents. A number of recent studies have attempted to translate these findings by investigating the relationships between peripheral (e.g., blood, urinary and salivary) OXT concentrations and behavioral functioning in humans. Although peripheral samples are easy to obtain in humans, whether peripheral OXT measures are functionally related to central OXT activity remains unclear. To investigate a possible relationship, we quantified OXT concentrations in concomitantly collected cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples from child and adult patients undergoing clinically indicated lumbar punctures or other CSF-related procedures. Anxiety scores were obtained in a subset of child participants whose parents completed psychometric assessments. Findings from this study indicate that plasma OXT concentrations significantly and positively predict CSF OXT concentrations (r=0.56, P=0.0064, N=27). Moreover, both plasma (r=-0.92, P=0.0262, N=10) and CSF (r=-0.91, P=0.0335, N=10) OXT concentrations significantly and negatively predicted trait anxiety scores, consistent with the preclinical literature. Importantly, plasma OXT concentrations significantly and positively (r=0.96, P=0.0115, N=10) predicted CSF OXT concentrations in the subset of child participants who provided behavioral data. This study provides the first empirical support for the use of blood measures of OXT as a surrogate for central OXT activity, validated in the context of behavioral functioning. These preliminary findings also suggest that impaired OXT signaling may be a biomarker of anxiety in humans, and a potential target for therapeutic development in individuals with anxiety disorders.

  5. Predicting value of pain and analgesia: nucleus accumbens response to noxious stimuli changes in the presence of chronic pain

    PubMed Central

    Baliki, M.N.; Geha, P.Y.; Fields, H.L.; Apkarian, A.V.

    2010-01-01

    We compared brain activations in response to acute noxious thermal stimuli in controls and chronic back pain (CBP) patients. Pain perception and related cortical activation patterns were similar in the two groups. However, nucleus accumbens (NAc) activity differentiated the groups at a very high accuracy, exhibiting phasic and tonic responses with distinct properties. Positive phasic NAc activations at stimulus onset and offset tracked stimulus salience and, in normal subjects predicted reward (pain relief) magnitude at stimulus offset. In CBP, NAc activity correlated with different cortical circuitry than normals and phasic activity at stimulus offset was negative in polarity, suggesting that the acute pain relieves the ongoing back pain. The relieving effect was confirmed in a separate psychophysical study in CBP. Therefore, in contrast to somatosensory pathways, which reflect sensory properties of acute noxious stimuli, NAc activity in humans encodes its predicted value and predicts its analgesic potential on chronic pain. PMID:20399736

  6. MiRNAs Predict the Prognosis of Patients with Triple Negative Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yanli; Zhang, Yuchao; Li, Qingfu; Li, Junfang; Ma, Xiaotian; Xing, Jinfang; Rong, Shouhua; Wu, Zhong; Tian, Yuan; Li, Jing; Jia, Liting

    2017-01-01

    Purpose miRNAs are stable and can be extracted from tissues, blood and other body fluid without degradation. miRNAs are abnormally expressed in the presence of a pathological status, including cancer. Therefore, miRNAs are ideal biomarkers for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) suffer the worst prognosis, although great efforts have been made. Many studies have investigated the role of miRNAs in predicting the outcomes of TNBC patients for better adjustment of treatment. However, results were inconsistent. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to summarize the published studies for conclusive results. Methods Eligible studies from different database were retrieved from the online databases, and we used STSTA 12.0 to analysis the prognostic role of miRNAs in triple negative breast cancer. Results Overall high miRNA expression indicated a worse survival with HR value of 1.78 (95% CI: 0.97–3.25). However, subtotal HRs of oncogenic miRNAs and tumor suppressive miRNAs were 2.73 (95% CI: 2.08–3.57; P<0.001) and 0.44 (95% CI: 0.21–0.90; P = 0.024), respectively, and no heterogeneity was observed within the subgroups. Conclusions The miRNAs showed a slightly stronger prognostic value for disease-free survival, relapse-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival compared to the overall survival of TNBC patients. Circulating miRNAs could serve as potential biomarkers for the prognosis of TNBC patients and need further investigation. PMID:28085956

  7. Double-Negative Mechanical Metamaterials Displaying Simultaneous Negative Stiffness and Negative Poisson's Ratio Properties.

    PubMed

    Hewage, Trishan A M; Alderson, Kim L; Alderson, Andrew; Scarpa, Fabrizio

    2016-12-01

    A scalable mechanical metamaterial simultaneously displaying negative stiffness and negative Poisson's ratio responses is presented. Interlocking hexagonal subunit assemblies containing 3 alternative embedded negative stiffness (NS) element types display Poisson's ratio values of -1 and NS values over two orders of magnitude (-1.4 N mm(-1) to -160 N mm(-1) ), in good agreement with model predictions.

  8. Value attainment: an explanation for the negative effects of work-family conflict on job and life satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Perrewé, P L; Hochwarter, W A; Kiewitz, C

    1999-10-01

    Perceptions of work interfering with family life and family issues interfering with work are examined as 2 distinct constructs representing work-family conflict. Experienced work-family conflict is argued to reduce one's value attainment which, in turn, lowers both job and life satisfaction. This study examines value attainment as a mediating variable in the work-family conflict and satisfaction relationship. Responses from 270 hotel managers indicate that value attainment either partially or fully mediates the relationship between work interference with family and family interference with work and both job and life satisfaction. Value attainment is argued to be a meaningful explanatory variable for the negative relationship between work-family conflict and job-life satisfaction.

  9. Predictive value of epigenetic alterations in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Koffler, Jennifer; Sharma, Sarika; Hess, Jochen

    2014-01-01

    Head and neck cancer collectively describes malignant tumors originating from the mucosal surface of the upper aerodigestive tract. These tumors pose a great threat to public health because of their high incidence and mortality. Traditional risk factors are tobacco and alcohol abuse. More recently, infection by high-risk types of human papilloma virus (HPV) has been identified as an additional risk factor, especially for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Moreover, HPV-positive OPSCC is considered a distinct tumor entity with an improved clinical outcome compared to HPV-negative OPSCC. Epigenetic alterations act as key events in the pathogenesis of cancer and are of special interest for basic and translational oncology because of their reversible nature. This review provides a comprehensive summary of alterations of the epigenome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with a focus on the methylome (hypomethylation and hypermethylation) and its predictive value in the evaluation of pathologic states and clinical outcome, or monitoring response rates to certain therapies. PMID:27308324

  10. [Value of the study of contingent negative variation in migraine and tension headache].

    PubMed

    Timsit, M; Timsit-Berthier, M; Schoenen, J; Maertens de Noordhout, A

    1987-09-01

    The aim of this study was to display the result obtained by the contingent negative variation (CNV) recording in patients suffering from headache. Eighty-five patients were taken into account: 59 with migraines (M) and 26 with tension headache (TH). A typical CNV pattern (high CNV amplitude with no habituation) differentiated M from TH. Moreover, psychological data were collected through Rorschach ink blot test among 42 headache sufferers (31 M and 11 TH). The typical Rorschach repressive pattern of alexithymia was found as well in M as in TH while CNV amplitude was significantly higher in the 31 M (-25 microV) than in the 11 TH (-19 microV FP less than 0.04). Biochemical data collected among 28 patients (17 M and 11 TH) revealed a positive correlation between CNV amplitude and plasma level of noradrenaline, regardless of the type of headache (r = 0.58; P less than 0.01). Thus, besides psychological factors, catecholaminergic mechanisms seem implicated in the determination of the CNV pattern in migraine. CNV may help the clinician both to specify diagnosis and to decide between the many therapeutic strategies available.

  11. Dopamine prediction error responses integrate subjective value from different reward dimensions.

    PubMed

    Lak, Armin; Stauffer, William R; Schultz, Wolfram

    2014-02-11

    Prediction error signals enable us to learn through experience. These experiences include economic choices between different rewards that vary along multiple dimensions. Therefore, an ideal way to reinforce economic choice is to encode a prediction error that reflects the subjective value integrated across these reward dimensions. Previous studies demonstrated that dopamine prediction error responses reflect the value of singular reward attributes that include magnitude, probability, and delay. Obviously, preferences between rewards that vary along one dimension are completely determined by the manipulated variable. However, it is unknown whether dopamine prediction error responses reflect the subjective value integrated from different reward dimensions. Here, we measured the preferences between rewards that varied along multiple dimensions, and as such could not be ranked according to objective metrics. Monkeys chose between rewards that differed in amount, risk, and type. Because their choices were complete and transitive, the monkeys chose "as if" they integrated different rewards and attributes into a common scale of value. The prediction error responses of single dopamine neurons reflected the integrated subjective value inferred from the choices, rather than the singular reward attributes. Specifically, amount, risk, and reward type modulated dopamine responses exactly to the extent that they influenced economic choices, even when rewards were vastly different, such as liquid and food. This prediction error response could provide a direct updating signal for economic values.

  12. Negative Social Relationships Predict Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Among War-Affected Children Via Posttraumatic Cognitions.

    PubMed

    Palosaari, Esa; Punamäki, Raija-Leena; Peltonen, Kirsi; Diab, Marwan; Qouta, Samir R

    2016-07-01

    Post traumatic cognitions (PTCs) are important determinants of post traumatic stress symptoms (PTS symptoms). We tested whether risk factors of PTS symptoms (trauma, demographics, social and family-related factors) predict PTCs and whether PTCs mediate the association between risk factors and PTS symptoms among war-affected children. The participants were 240 Palestinian children 10-12 years old, half boys and half girls, and their parents. Children reported about psychological maltreatment, sibling and peer relations, war trauma, PTCs, PTS symptoms, and depression. Parents reported about their socioeconomic status and their own PTS symptoms. The associations between the variables were estimated in structural equation models. In models which included all the variables, PTCs were predicted by and mediated the effects of psychological maltreatment, war trauma, sibling conflict, and peer unpopularity on PTS symptoms. Other predictors had statistically non-significant effects. Psychological maltreatment had the largest indirect effect (b* = 0.29, p = 0.002) and the indirect effects of war trauma (b* = 0.10, p = 0.045), sibling conflict (b* = 0.10, p = 0.045), and peer unpopularity (b* = 0.10, p = 0.094) were lower and about the same size. Age-salient social relationships are potentially important in the development of both PTCs and PTS symptoms among preadolescents. Furthermore, PTCs mediate the effects of the risk factors of PTS symptoms. The causality of the associations among the variables is not established but it could be studied in the future with interventions which improve the negative aspects of traumatized children's important social relationships.

  13. The predictive value of selected serum microRNAs for acute GVHD by TaqMan MicroRNA arrays.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Chunyan; Bai, Nan; Huang, Wenrong; Zhang, Pengjun; Luo, Yuan; Men, Shasha; Wen, Ting; Tong, Hongli; Wang, Shuhong; Tian, Ya-Ping

    2016-10-01

    Currently, the diagnosis of acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is mainly based on clinical symptoms and biopsy results. This study was designed to further explore new no noninvasive biomarkers for aGVHD prediction/diagnosis. We profiled miRNAs in serum pools from patients with aGVHD (grades II-IV) (n = 9) and non-aGVHD controls (n = 9) by real-time qPCR-based TaqMan MicroRNA arrays. Then, predictive models were established using related miRNAs (n = 38) and verified by a double-blind trial (n = 54). We found that miR-411 was significantly down regulated when aGVHD developed and recovered when aGVHD was controlled, which demonstrated that miR-411 has potential as an indicator for aGVHD monitoring. We developed and validated a predictive model and a diagnostic model for aGVHD. The predictive model included two miRNAs (miR-26b and miR-374a), which could predict an increased risk for aGVHD 1 or 2 weeks in advance, with an AUC, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.722, 76.19 %, and 69.70 %, respectively. The diagnostic model included three miRNAs (miR-28-5p, miR-489, and miR-671-3p) with an AUC, PPV, and NPV of 0.841, 85.71 % and 83.33 %, respectively. Our results show that circulating miRNAs (miR-26b and miR-374a, miR-28-5p, miR-489 and miR-671-3p) may serve as biomarkers for the prediction and diagnosis of grades II-IV aGVHD.

  14. Germline mutations in DNA repair genes may predict neoadjuvant therapy response in triple negative breast patients.

    PubMed

    Spugnesi, Laura; Gabriele, Michele; Scarpitta, Rosa; Tancredi, Mariella; Maresca, Luisa; Gambino, Gaetana; Collavoli, Anita; Aretini, Paolo; Bertolini, Ilaria; Salvadori, Barbara; Landucci, Elisabetta; Fontana, Andrea; Rossetti, Elena; Roncella, Manuela; Naccarato, Giuseppe Antonio; Caligo, Maria Adelaide

    2016-12-01

    Triple negative breast cancers (TNBCs) represent about 15-20% of all breast cancer cases and are characterized by a complex molecular heterogeneity. Some TNBCs exhibit clinical and pathological properties similar to BRCA-mutated tumors, without actually bearing a mutation in BRCA genes. This "BRCAness" phenotype may be explained by germline mutations in other genes involved in DNA repair. Although respond to chemotherapy with alkylating agents, they have a high risk of recurrence and progression. Some studies have shown the efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy in TNBC patients with DNA repair defects, but proper biomarkers of DNA repair deficiency are still needed. Here, we investigated if mutations in DNA repair genes may be correlated with anthracyclines/taxanes neoadjuvant therapy response. DNA from 19 TNBC patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy were subjected to next generation sequencing of a panel of 24 genes in DNA repair and breast cancer predisposition. In this study, 5 of 19 patients (26%) carried a pathogenic mutation in BRCA1, PALB2, RAD51C and two patients carried a probable pathogenic missense variant. Moreover, VUS (Variants of Unknown Significance) in other genes, predicted to be deleterious by in silico tools, were detected in five patients. Germline mutations in DNA repair genes were found to be associated with the group of TNBC patients who responded to therapy. We conclude that a subgroup of TNBC patients have defects in DNA repair genes, other than BRCA1, and such patients respond favourably to neoadjuvant anthracyclines/taxanes therapy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Gate-tunable negative longitudinal magnetoresistance in the predicted type-II Weyl semimetal WTe2

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yaojia; Liu, Erfu; Liu, Huimei; Pan, Yiming; Zhang, Longqiang; Zeng, Junwen; Fu, Yajun; Wang, Miao; Xu, Kang; Huang, Zhong; Wang, Zhenlin; Lu, Hai-Zhou; Xing, Dingyu; Wang, Baigeng; Wan, Xiangang; Miao, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The progress in exploiting new electronic materials has been a major driving force in solid-state physics. As a new state of matter, a Weyl semimetal (WSM), in particular a type-II WSM, hosts Weyl fermions as emergent quasiparticles and may harbour novel electrical transport properties. Nevertheless, such a type-II WSM material has not been experimentally observed. In this work, by performing systematic magneto-transport studies on thin films of a predicted material candidate WTe2, we observe notable negative longitudinal magnetoresistance, which can be attributed to the chiral anomaly in WSM. This phenomenon also exhibits strong planar orientation dependence with the absence along the tungsten chains, consistent with the distinctive feature of a type-II WSM. By applying a gate voltage, we demonstrate that the Fermi energy can be in-situ tuned through the Weyl points via the electric field effect. Our results may open opportunities for implementing new electronic applications, such as field-effect chiral devices. PMID:27725682

  16. Gate-tunable negative longitudinal magnetoresistance in the predicted type-II Weyl semimetal WTe2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yaojia; Liu, Erfu; Liu, Huimei; Pan, Yiming; Zhang, Longqiang; Zeng, Junwen; Fu, Yajun; Wang, Miao; Xu, Kang; Huang, Zhong; Wang, Zhenlin; Lu, Hai-Zhou; Xing, Dingyu; Wang, Baigeng; Wan, Xiangang; Miao, Feng

    2016-10-01

    The progress in exploiting new electronic materials has been a major driving force in solid-state physics. As a new state of matter, a Weyl semimetal (WSM), in particular a type-II WSM, hosts Weyl fermions as emergent quasiparticles and may harbour novel electrical transport properties. Nevertheless, such a type-II WSM material has not been experimentally observed. In this work, by performing systematic magneto-transport studies on thin films of a predicted material candidate WTe2, we observe notable negative longitudinal magnetoresistance, which can be attributed to the chiral anomaly in WSM. This phenomenon also exhibits strong planar orientation dependence with the absence along the tungsten chains, consistent with the distinctive feature of a type-II WSM. By applying a gate voltage, we demonstrate that the Fermi energy can be in-situ tuned through the Weyl points via the electric field effect. Our results may open opportunities for implementing new electronic applications, such as field-effect chiral devices.

  17. Negative relational schemas predict the trajectory of coercive dynamics during early childhood.

    PubMed

    Smith, Justin D; Dishion, Thomas J; Shaw, Daniel S; Wilson, Melvin N

    2015-05-01

    Coercive family processes are germane to the development of problem behaviors in early childhood, yet the cognitive and affective underpinnings are not well understood. We hypothesized that one antecedent of early coercive interactions is the caregiver's implicit affective attitudes toward the child, which in this article are termed relational schemas. Relational schemas have previously been linked to coercion and problem behaviors, but there has yet to be an examination of the association between relational schemas and trajectories of coercion during early childhood. We examined 731 indigent caregiver-child dyads (49 % female children) from a randomized intervention trial of the Family Check-Up. Predominantly biological mothers participated. A speech sample was used to assess relational schemas at age 2. Coercive interactions were assessed observationally each year between ages 2 and 4. Caregiver and teacher reports of children's oppositional and aggressive behaviors were collected at age 7.5 and 8.5. Path analysis revealed that negative relational schemas were associated with less steep declines in coercion during this period, which in turn were predictive of ratings of oppositional and aggressive behaviors at age 7.5/8.5 after controlling for baseline levels, positive relational schemas, child gender, ethnicity, and cumulative risk. Intervention condition assignment did not moderate this relationship, suggesting the results represent a naturally occurring process. Given the link between persistent early coercion and later deleterious outcomes, relational schemas that maintain and amplify coercive dynamics represent a potential target for early intervention programs designed to improve parent-child relationships.

  18. Supersonic intensity and non-negative intensity for prediction of radiated sound.

    PubMed

    Liu, Daipei; Peters, Herwig; Marburg, Steffen; Kessissoglou, Nicole

    2016-05-01

    Two numerical methods to identify the surface areas of a vibrating structure that radiate sound are presented. The supersonic intensity identifies only the supersonic wave components of the sound field contributing to far-field radiated sound. The supersonic intensity is calculated using a two-dimensional convolution between a spatial radiation filter and the sound field. To compute the spatial radiation filter, the shortest surface distance between two points on the structure is calculated using the geodesic distance method. The non-negative intensity is based on acoustic radiation modes and identifies the radiated sound power from a vibrating structure. Numerical models of a baffled plate, a cylinder and an engine crankcase are presented. The supersonic intensity is shown to be difficult to implement at low frequencies due to the size of the spatial radiation filter and accuracy of the surface distances. A cut-off coefficient associated with the acoustic wavenumber of the spatial radiation filter is used to reduce the aperture error. A comparison of the two intensity-based techniques both in terms of a sound power ratio and the modal assurance criterion is introduced to identify the optimal values of the cut-off coefficients that result in better convergence between the intensity techniques.

  19. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers' Beliefs Regarding Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction.

    PubMed

    Vaala, Sarah E

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents' decision-making about the extent of their young children's viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents' belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants' and toddlers' TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children's TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children's estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers' attitudes and intentions and children's viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

  20. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers’ Beliefs Regarding Infants’ and Toddlers’ TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Vaala, Sarah E.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents’ decision-making about the extent of their young children’s viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents’ belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants’ and toddlers’ TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children’s TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children’s estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers’ attitudes and intentions and children’s viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  1. Negative Relational Schemas Predict the Trajectory of Coercive Dynamics During Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Justin D.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Wilson, Melvin N.

    2014-01-01

    Coercive family processes are germane to the development of problem behaviors in early childhood, yet the cognitive and affective underpinnings are not well understood. We hypothesized that one antecedent of early coercive interactions is the caregiver’s implicit affective attitudes toward the child, which in this article are termed relational schemas. Relational schemas have previously been linked to coercion and problem behaviors, but there has yet to be an examination of the association between relational schemas and trajectories of coercion during early childhood. We examined 731 indigent caregiver-child dyads (49% female children) from a randomized intervention trial of the Family Check-Up. Predominantly biological mothers participated. A speech sample was used to assess relational schemas at age 2. Coercive interactions were assessed observationally each year between ages 2 and 4. Caregiver and teacher reports of children’s oppositional and aggressive behaviors were collected at age 7.5 and 8.5. Path analysis revealed that negative relational schemas were associated with less steep declines in coercion during this period, which in turn were predictive of ratings of oppositional and aggressive behaviors at age 7.5/8.5 after controlling for baseline levels, positive relational schemas, child gender, ethnicity, and cumulative risk. Intervention condition assignment did not moderate this relationship, suggesting the results represent a naturally occurring process. Given the link between persistent early coercion and later deleterious outcomes, relational schemas that maintain and amplify coercive dynamics represent a potential target for early intervention programs designed to improve parent–child relationships. PMID:25208813

  2. Positive predictive values of abused drug immunoassays on the Beckman Synchron in a veteran population.

    PubMed

    Dietzen, D J; Ecos, K; Friedman, D; Beason, S

    2001-04-01

    The pressure to reduce the cost of analytic testing makes it tempting to discontinue routine confirmation of urine specimens positive for drugs of abuse by immunoassay. Beyond the economic motivation, the requirement for confirmation should be driven by the positive predictive value of the screening tests. We have quantitated positive predictive values of our screening immunoassays in a large metropolitan Veterans Affairs Medical Center. We reviewed the confirmatory rate of urine specimens positive for drugs of abuse with Beckman Synchron reagents from June 1998 to June 1999 and tabulated the false-positive screening rate. There were 175 instances of false-positive screens during the 13 months we analyzed. Positive predictive values ranged from 0% (amphetamine) to 100% (THC). We determined that the low positive predictive value of the amphetamine assay in our laboratory was primarily due to the use of ranitidine (Zantac). Urine specimens containing greater than 43 microg/mL ranitidine were positive in our amphetamine assay. This concentration is routinely exceeded in our patients taking ranitidine. In our clinical and analytic setting, the Beckman THC assay did not require confirmation. The positive predictive values of the Beckman opiate, cocaine, barbiturate, propoxyphene, and methadone immunoassays dictate routine confirmatory testing in specimens that screen positive for these substances. Finally, because of its extreme sensitivity to ranitidine, the Beckman amphetamine assay has little utility in our laboratory setting.

  3. Predictive value of dobutamine echocardiography and positron emission tomography in identifying hibernating myocardium in patients with postischaemic heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Pagano, D; Bonser, R; Townend, J; Ordoubadi, F; Lorenzoni, R; Camici, P

    1998-01-01

    Objective—To compare the predictive value of dobutamine echocardiography (DE) and positron emission tomography (PET) in identifying reversible chronic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction (hibernating myocardium) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and overt heart failure.
Patients—30 patients (four women) with CAD and heart failure undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).
Methods—Myocardial viability was assessed with DE (5 and 10 µg/kg/min) and PET with [18F] 2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) under hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp. Regional (echo) and global LV function (MUGA) were assessed at baseline and six months after CABG.
Results—192 of the 336 (57%) dysfunctional LV segments improved function following CABG (hibernating) and the LV ejection fraction (EF) increased from 23(7) to 32(9)% (p < 0.0001) (in 17 patients > 5%). DE and PET had similar positive predictive values (68% and 66%) in the identification of hibernating myocardium, but DE had a significantly lower negative predictive value than PET (54% v 96%; p < 0.0001). A significant linear correlation was found between the number of PET viable segments and the changes in EF following CABG (r = 0.65; p = 0.0001). Stepwise logistic regression identified the number of PET viable segments as an independent predictor of improvement in EF > 5%, whereas the number of DE viable segments, the baseline LVEF, and wall motion were not.
Conclusions—DE has a higher false negative rate than PET in identifying recoverable LV dysfunction in patients with severe postischaemic heart failure. The amount of PET viable myocardium correlates with the functional outcome following CABG.

 Keywords: dobutamine echocardiography;  positron emission tomography;  coronary artery disease;  heart failure;  hibernating myocardium PMID:9602663

  4. Negative affect predicts social functioning across schizophrenia and bipolar disorder: Findings from an integrated data analysis.

    PubMed

    Grove, Tyler B; Tso, Ivy F; Chun, Jinsoo; Mueller, Savanna A; Taylor, Stephan F; Ellingrod, Vicki L; McInnis, Melvin G; Deldin, Patricia J

    2016-09-30

    Most people with a serious mental illness experience significant functional impairment despite ongoing pharmacological treatment. Thus, in order to improve outcomes, a better understanding of functional predictors is needed. This study examined negative affect, a construct comprised of negative emotional experience, as a predictor of social functioning across serious mental illnesses. One hundred twenty-seven participants with schizophrenia, 113 with schizoaffective disorder, 22 with psychosis not otherwise specified, 58 with bipolar disorder, and 84 healthy controls (N=404) completed self-report negative affect measures. Elevated levels of negative affect were observed in clinical participants compared with healthy controls. For both clinical and healthy control participants, negative affect measures were significantly correlated with social functioning, and consistently explained significant amounts of variance in functioning. For clinical participants, this relationship persisted even after accounting for cognition and positive/negative symptoms. The findings suggest that negative affect is a strong predictor of outcome across these populations and treatment of serious mental illnesses should target elevated negative affect in addition to cognition and positive/negative symptoms.

  5. Time-dependent Predictive Values of Prognostic Biomarkers with Failure Time Outcome.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Yingye; Cai, Tianxi; Pepe, Margaret S; Levy, Wayne C

    2008-01-01

    In a prospective cohort study, information on clinical parameters, tests and molecular markers is often collected. Such information is useful to predict patient prognosis and to select patients for targeted therapy. We propose a new graphical approach, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve, to quantify the predictive accuracy of prognostic markers measured on a continuous scale with censored failure time outcome. The proposed method highlights the need to consider both predictive values and the marker distribution in the population when evaluating a marker, and it provides a common scale for comparing different markers. We consider both semiparametric and nonparametric based estimating procedures. In addition, we provide asymptotic distribution theory and resampling based procedures for making statistical inference. We illustrate our approach with numerical studies and datasets from the Seattle Heart Failure Study.

  6. Predictive models of alcohol use based on attitudes and individual values.

    PubMed

    García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.

  7. Hay fever and predictive value of prick test and specific IgE antibodies: a prospective study in children.

    PubMed

    Schäfer, Torsten; Hoelscher, Bernd; Adam, Horst; Ring, Johannes; Wichmann, H-Erich; Heinrich, Joachim

    2003-04-01

    Little is known from population-based studies in children about the diagnostic values of allergen-specific IgE antibodies (RAST) and skin prick test (SPT) with respect to hay fever. We aimed to determine and compare the diagnostic values of SPT and RAST to aeroallergens with respect to the incidence of hay fever cases in schoolchildren at different cut-off points. A prospective cohort study was performed on 1100 school children (5-7 and 8-10 years). Information on a doctor's diagnosis of hay fever was obtained by questionnaire and allergic sensitization to grass and birch pollen, cat, and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus were measured using SPT and RAST between September 1992 and July 1993. Thirty-eight children give a history of hay fever (3.5%) in 1992/93 and additionally 37 cases occurred until 1996. Allergic sensitization was present in 17.9% (SPT), 30.2% (RAST) and more frequent in children with a history of hay fever (SPT: OR 11.7, 5.5-24.7; RAST: OR 10.6, 4.3-26.4). This difference was most pronounced for sensitization to pollen allergens. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for SPT and RAST were 65.6, 83.7, 11.9, 98.6 and 79.3, 71.6, 9.3, 99.0, respectively, with differences for specificity being significant (p < 0.001). Whereas NPV were equally high for SPT (99.2) and RAST (99.3), the incidence of hay fever cases were predicted rather poorly though somewhat better by SPT than by RAST (PPV 16.7 vs. 9.8; p < 0.001) initially. With increasing cut-off point for RAST reactivity, the PPV increased and reached 25.0 at 17.5 kU/l, whereas the NPV decreased to 97.9, which was lower than that of SPT reactivity (p < 0.01). At the cut-off point of 1.5 kU/l almost identical predictive values for SPT and RAST were obtained. SPT and RAST perform better in the negative than positive prediction of hay fever cases in epidemiological studies. Differences in the predictive capabilities depend on the chosen cut-off point for RAST

  8. Prediction of textural attributes using color values of banana (Musa sapientum) during ripening.

    PubMed

    Jaiswal, Pranita; Jha, Shyam Narayan; Kaur, Poonam Preet; Bhardwaj, Rishi; Singh, Ashish Kumar; Wadhawan, Vishakha

    2014-06-01

    Banana is an important sub-tropical fruit in international trade. It undergoes significant textural and color transformations during ripening process, which in turn influence the eating quality of the fruit. In present study, color ('L', 'a' and 'b' value) and textural attributes of bananas (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; pulp toughness; stickiness) were studied simultaneously using Hunter Color Lab and Texture Analyser, respectively, during ripening period of 10 days at ambient atmosphere. There was significant effect of ripening period on all the considered textural characteristics and color properties of bananas except color value 'b'. In general, textural descriptors (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; and pulp toughness) decreased during ripening except stickiness, while color values viz 'a' and 'b' increased with ripening barring 'L' value. Among various textural attributes, peel toughness and pulp firmness showed highest correlation (r) with 'a' value of banana peel. In order to predict textural properties using color values of banana, five types of equations (linear/polynomial/exponential/logarithmic/power) were fitted. Among them, polynomial equation was found to be the best fit (highest coefficient of determination, R(2)) for prediction of texture using color properties for bananas. The pulp firmness, peel toughness and pulp toughness showed R(2) above 0.84 with indicating its potentiality of the fitted equations for prediction of textural profile of bananas non-destructively using 'a' value.

  9. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    PubMed

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2016-09-28

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  10. An Intercomparison of Lidar Ozone and Temperature Measurements From the SOLVE Mission With Predicted Model Values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burris, John; McGee, Thomas J.; Hoegy, Walt; Lait, Leslie; Sumnicht, Grant; Twigg, Larry; Heaps, William

    2000-01-01

    Temperature profiles acquired by Goddard Space Flight Center's AROTEL lidar during the SOLVE mission onboard NASA's DC-8 are compared with predicted values from several atmospheric models (DAO, NCEP and UKMO). The variability in the differences between measured and calculated temperature fields was approximately 5 K. Retrieved temperatures within the polar vortex showed large regions that were significantly colder than predicted by the atmospheric models.

  11. Non-negative infrared patch-image model: Robust target-background separation via partial sum minimization of singular values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Yimian; Wu, Yiquan; Song, Yu; Guo, Jun

    2017-03-01

    To further enhance the small targets and suppress the heavy clutters simultaneously, a robust non-negative infrared patch-image model via partial sum minimization of singular values is proposed. First, the intrinsic reason behind the undesirable performance of the state-of-the-art infrared patch-image (IPI) model when facing extremely complex backgrounds is analyzed. We point out that it lies in the mismatching of IPI model's implicit assumption of a large number of observations with the reality of deficient observations of strong edges. To fix this problem, instead of the nuclear norm, we adopt the partial sum of singular values to constrain the low-rank background patch-image, which could provide a more accurate background estimation and almost eliminate all the salient residuals in the decomposed target image. In addition, considering the fact that the infrared small target is always brighter than its adjacent background, we propose an additional non-negative constraint to the sparse target patch-image, which could not only wipe off more undesirable components ulteriorly but also accelerate the convergence rate. Finally, an algorithm based on inexact augmented Lagrange multiplier method is developed to solve the proposed model. A large number of experiments are conducted demonstrating that the proposed model has a significant improvement over the other nine competitive methods in terms of both clutter suppressing performance and convergence rate.

  12. Relational aggression, positive urgency and negative urgency: predicting alcohol use and consequences among college students.

    PubMed

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

    2014-09-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions.

  13. Prenatal Maternal Anxiety and Depression Predict Negative Behavioral Reactivity in Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Elysia Poggi; Snidman, Nancy; Wadhwa, Pathik D.; Glynn, Laura M.; Schetter, Chris Dunkel; Sandman, Curt A.

    2004-01-01

    The effects of maternal antenatal and postnatal anxiety and depression on infant negative behavioral reactivity were examined in a sample of 22 mother-infant pairs. Maternal anxiety and depression were assessed by standardized measures during the third trimester of pregnancy and postpartum. Infant negative behavioral responses to novelty were…

  14. Assessment of the value of international genetic evaluations for yield in predicting domestic breeding values for foreign Holstein bulls.

    PubMed

    Nicolazzi, E L; Forabosco, F; Fikse, W F

    2011-05-01

    International genetic evaluations are a valuable source of information for decisions about the importation of (the semen of) foreign bulls. This study analyzed data from 6 countries (Australia, Canada, Italy, France, the Netherlands, and the United States) and compared international evaluations for production traits of foreign bulls (i.e., when no national daughter information was available) to their national breeding values in August 2009, which were based only on domestic daughters' data. A total of 821 bulls with highly reliable estimated breeding values (EBV) for milk, fat, and protein yield were analyzed. No evidence of systematic over- or underestimation was found in most of the countries analyzed. Observed correlations between national and international evaluations were close to 0.9 and, for most countries, generally close to their expected values (calculated from national and international EBV reliabilities). In Italy, however, higher differences between observed and expected correlations and significant mean differences between EBV for more than one trait were observed in bulls progeny-tested in the United States and in other European countries (with differences up to 33.1% of the genetic standard deviation). These results were probably induced by a relatively recent change in the model for national evaluation. The findings in this study reflect a conservative estimate of the real value of international evaluations, as changes in methodologies in either the national or the international evaluations decreased the ability of past international evaluations to predict current national evaluations. Nevertheless, our results indicate that international evaluations based on foreign information for Holstein bulls were reasonably accurate predictors of the future national breeding values based only upon domestic daughters.

  15. Predictive Response Value of Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Variables in Rectal Cancer: An Analysis of Histological Data.

    PubMed

    Santos, Marisa D; Silva, Cristina; Rocha, Anabela; Nogueira, Carlos; Matos, Eduarda; Lopes, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Background. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by curative surgery in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) improves pelvic disease control. Survival improvement is achieved only if pathological response occurs. Mandard tumor regression grade (TRG) proved to be a valid system to measure nCRT response. Potential predictive factors for Mandard response are analyzed. Materials and Methods. 167 patients with LARC were treated with nCRT and curative surgery. Tumor biopsies and surgical specimens were reviewed and analyzed regarding mitotic count, necrosis, desmoplastic reaction, and inflammatory infiltration grade. Surgical specimens were classified according to Mandard TRG. The patients were divided as "good responders" (Mandard TRG1-2) and "bad responders" (Mandard TRG3-5). According to results from our previous data, good responders have better prognosis than bad responders. We examined predictive factors for Mandard response and performed statistical analysis. Results. In univariate analysis, distance from anal verge and ten other postoperative variables related with nCRT tumor response had predictive value for Mandard response. In multivariable analysis only mitotic count, necrosis, and differentiation grade in surgical specimen had predictive value. Conclusions. There is a lack of clinical and pathological preoperative variables able to predict Mandard response. Only postoperative pathological parameters related with nCRT response have predictive value.

  16. Negative affect predicts adults' ratings of the current, but not childhood, impact of adverse childhood events.

    PubMed

    LaNoue, Marianna; Graeber, David A; Helitzer, Deborah L; Fawcett, Jan

    2013-10-01

    Adverse childhood events (ACE's) have been empirically related to a wide range of negative health and mental health outcomes. However, not all individuals who experience ACE's follow a trajectory of poor outcomes, and not all individuals perceive the impact of ACE's as necessarily negative. The purpose of this study was to investigate positive and negative affect as predictors of adults' ratings of both the childhood and adult impact of their childhood adversity. Self-report data on ACE experiences, including number, severity, and 'impact' were collected from 158 community members recruited on the basis of having adverse childhood experiences. Results indicated that, regardless of event severity and number of different types of adverse events experienced, high levels of negative affect were the strongest predictor of whether the adult impact of the adverse childhood events was rated as negative. All individuals rated the childhood impact of events the same. Implications are discussed.

  17. Disrupted Expected Value and Prediction Error Signaling in Youths With Disruptive Behavior Disorders During a Passive Avoidance Task

    PubMed Central

    White, Stuart F.; Pope, Kayla; Sinclair, Stephen; Fowler, Katherine A.; Brislin, Sarah J.; Williams, W. Craig; Pine, Daniel S.; Blair, R. James R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Youths with disruptive behavior disorders, including conduct disorder and oppositional defiant disorder, show major impairments in reinforcement-based decision making. However, the neural basis of these difficulties remains poorly understood. This partly reflects previous failures to differentiate responses during decision making and feedback processing and to take advantage of computational model-based functional MRI (fMRI). Method Participants were 38 community youths ages 10–18 (20 had disruptive behavior disorders, and 18 were healthy comparison youths). Model-based fMRI was used to assess the computational processes involved in decision making and feedback processing in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, insula, and caudate. Results Youths with disruptive behavior disorders showed reduced use of expected value information within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex when choosing to respond and within the anterior insula when choosing not to respond. In addition, they showed reduced responsiveness to positive prediction errors and increased responsiveness to negative prediction errors within the caudate during feedback. Conclusions This study is the first to determine impairments in the use of expected value within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and insula during choice and in prediction error-signaling within the caudate during feedback in youths with disruptive behavior disorders. PMID:23450288

  18. Metacognitive functioning predicts positive and negative symptoms over 12 months in first episode psychosis.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Hamish J; Gumley, Andrew I; Macbeth, Angus; Schwannauer, Matthias; Lysaker, Paul H

    2014-07-01

    The negative symptoms of schizophrenia are a major source of impairment and distress but both pharmacological and psychological treatment options provide only modest benefit. Developing more effective psychological treatments for negative symptoms will require a more sophisticated understanding of the psychological processes that are implicated in their development and maintenance. We extended previous work by demonstrating that metacognitive functioning is related to negative symptom expression across the first 12 months of first episode psychosis (FEP). Previous studies in this area have either been cross-sectional or have used much older participants with long-standing symptoms. In this study, forty-five FEP participants were assessed three times over 12 months and provided data on PANSS rated symptoms, premorbid adjustment, metacognitive functioning, and DUP. Step-wise linear regression showed that adding metacognition scores to known predictors of negative symptoms (baseline symptom severity, gender, DUP, and premorbid academic and social adjustment) accounted for 62% of the variance in PANSS negative symptom scores at six months and 38% at 12 months. The same predictors also explained 47% of the variance in positive symptoms at both six and 12 months. However, exploration of the simple correlations between PANSS symptom scores and metacognition suggests a stronger univariate relationship between metacognition and negative symptoms. Overall, the results indicate that problems with mental state processing may be important determinants of negative symptom expression from the very early stages of psychosis. These results provide further evidence that metacognitive functioning is a potentially relevant target for psychological interventions.

  19. Value of somatosensory and motor evoked potentials in predicting arm recovery after a stroke

    PubMed Central

    Feys, H.; Van Hees, J.; Bruyninckx, F.; Mercelis, R.; De Weerdt, W.

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—Prediction of motor recovery in the arm in patients with stroke is generally based on clinical examination. However, neurophysiological measures may also have a predictive value. The aims of this study were to assess the role of somatosensory (SSEPs) and motor (MEPs) evoked potentials in the prediction of arm motor recovery and to determine whether these measures added further predictive information to that gained from clinical examination.
METHODS—Sixty four patients who had had a stroke and presented with obvious motor deficit of the arm were examined in terms of three clinical variables (motor performance, muscle tone, and overall disability) and for SSEPs and MEPs. Clinical and neurophysiological examinations were done at entry to the study (2 to 5 weeks poststroke), and at about 2 months after stroke. Further clinical follow up was conducted at 6 and 12 months after stroke.
RESULTS—Neurophysiological measures made in the acute phase were of little use alone in predicting motor recovery of the arm at 2,6, and 12 months after stroke. At 2 months, the absence of SSEPs and MEPs indicated a very poor outcome. Conversely, if the responses were preserved, a great variation in motor outcome was found. Multiple regression analysis showed that the addition of SSEPs and MEPs to the clinical examination increased the possibility of predicting arm recovery in the long term. In the acute phase, the combination of the motor score and SSEPs were best able to predict outcome. The long term outcome based on variables taken at 2 months, was best predicted through incorporating the three clinical measures and MEPs.
CONCLUSIONS—Neurophysiological measures alone are of limited value in predicting long term outcome. However, predictive accuracy is substantially improved through the combined use of both of these measures and clinical variables.

 PMID:10675214

  20. Hemispheric Asymmetries in Striatal Reward Responses Relate to Approach-Avoidance Learning and Encoding of Positive-Negative Prediction Errors in Dopaminergic Midbrain Regions.

    PubMed

    Aberg, Kristoffer Carl; Doell, Kimberly C; Schwartz, Sophie

    2015-10-28

    Some individuals are better at learning about rewarding situations, whereas others are inclined to avoid punishments (i.e., enhanced approach or avoidance learning, respectively). In reinforcement learning, action values are increased when outcomes are better than predicted (positive prediction errors [PEs]) and decreased for worse than predicted outcomes (negative PEs). Because actions with high and low values are approached and avoided, respectively, individual differences in the neural encoding of PEs may influence the balance between approach-avoidance learning. Recent correlational approaches also indicate that biases in approach-avoidance learning involve hemispheric asymmetries in dopamine function. However, the computational and neural mechanisms underpinning such learning biases remain unknown. Here we assessed hemispheric reward asymmetry in striatal activity in 34 human participants who performed a task involving rewards and punishments. We show that the relative difference in reward response between hemispheres relates to individual biases in approach-avoidance learning. Moreover, using a computational modeling approach, we demonstrate that better encoding of positive (vs negative) PEs in dopaminergic midbrain regions is associated with better approach (vs avoidance) learning, specifically in participants with larger reward responses in the left (vs right) ventral striatum. Thus, individual dispositions or traits may be determined by neural processes acting to constrain learning about specific aspects of the world.

  1. The utility and predictive value of combinations of low penetrance genes for screening and risk prediction of colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Hawken, Steven J; Greenwood, Celia M T; Hudson, Thomas J; Kustra, Rafal; McLaughlin, John; Yang, Quanhe; Zanke, Brent W; Little, Julian

    2010-07-01

    Despite the fact that colorectal cancer (CRC) is a highly treatable form of cancer if detected early, a very low proportion of the eligible population undergoes screening for this form of cancer. Integrating a genomic screening profile as a component of existing screening programs for CRC could potentially improve the effectiveness of population screening by allowing the assignment of individuals to different types and intensities of screening and also by potentially increasing the uptake of existing screening programs. We evaluated the utility and predictive value of genomic profiling as applied to CRC, and as a potential component of a population-based cancer screening program. We generated simulated data representing a typical North American population including a variety of genetic profiles, with a range of relative risks and prevalences for individual risk genes. We then used these data to estimate parameters characterizing the predictive value of a logistic regression model built on genetic markers for CRC. Meta-analyses of genetic associations with CRC were used in building science to inform the simulation work, and to select genetic variants to include in logistic regression model-building using data from the ARCTIC study in Ontario, which included 1,200 CRC cases and a similar number of cancer-free population-based controls. Our simulations demonstrate that for reasonable assumptions involving modest relative risks for individual genetic variants, that substantial predictive power can be achieved when risk variants are common (e.g., prevalence > 20%) and data for enough risk variants are available (e.g., approximately 140-160). Pilot work in population data shows modest, but statistically significant predictive utility for a small collection of risk variants, smaller in effect than age and gender alone in predicting an individual's CRC risk. Further genotyping and many more samples will be required, and indeed the discovery of many more risk loci

  2. Predictive relationships between chronic pain and negative emotions: a 4-month daily process study using Therapeutic Interactive Voice Response (TIVR).

    PubMed

    Naylor, Magdalena R; Krauthamer, G Michael; Naud, Shelly; Keefe, Francis J; Helzer, John E

    2011-01-01

    This article examines temporal relationships between negative emotions and pain in a cohort of 33 patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain enrolled in a telephone-based relapse prevention program (Therapeutic Interactive Voice Response [TIVR]), after 11 weeks of group cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Patients were asked to make daily reports to the TIVR system for 4 months after CBT. Patients' daily reports were analyzed with path analysis to examine temporal relationships between 3 emotion variables (anger, sadness, and stress) and 2 pain variables (pain and pain control). As expected, same-day correlations were significant between emotion variables and both pain and pain control. The lagged associations revealed unidirectional relationships between pain and next-day emotions: increased pain predicted higher reports of sadness the following day (P < .05). Conversely, increased pain control predicted decreased sadness and anger the following day (P < .05). Unlike some previous studies, this study did not reveal that an increase of negative emotions predicted increased next-day pain. We speculate that CBT treatment followed by the relapse prevention program teaches patients how to modulate negative emotions such that they no longer have a negative impact on next-day pain perception. The clinical implications of our findings are discussed.

  3. Negative cognitive styles synergistically predict suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders: a 3-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Stange, Jonathan P; Hamilton, Jessica L; Burke, Taylor A; Kleiman, Evan M; O'Garro-Moore, Jared K; Seligman, Nicole D; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-03-30

    Rates of suicidal ideation and behavior are extremely high in bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). However, relatively little work has evaluated potentially synergistic relationships between cognitive and emotion-regulatory processes proposed by theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs. The present study evaluated whether negative cognitive style and subtypes of rumination would exacerbate the impact of self-criticism on suicidal ideation in a prospective study of individuals with BSDs. Seventy-two young adults with BSDs (bipolar II, bipolar NOS, or cyclothymia) completed diagnostic interviews and trait measures of self-criticism, negative cognitive style, and brooding and reflective rumination at a baseline assessment. The occurrence of suicidal ideation was assessed as part of diagnostic interviews completed every 4 months for an average of 3 years of follow-up. Negative cognitive style and reflective rumination strengthened the association between self-criticism and the prospective occurrence of suicidal ideation across follow-up. Individuals with high levels of self-criticism in conjunction with negative cognitive style or reflective rumination were most likely to experience the onset of suicidal ideation. Self-criticism may work synergistically with negative cognitive style and rumination to confer risk for suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders. These results support theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs and indicate that evaluating and understanding negative cognitive styles may help to identify individuals who are at risk of suicide.

  4. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN...) Classification. Class II (performance standards)....

  5. Alternative Approaches for Measuring Values: Direct and Indirect Assessments in Performance Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mumford, Michael D.; Connelly, Mary Shane; Helton, Whitney B.; Van Doorn, Judy R.; Osburn, Holly K.

    2002-01-01

    Undergraduates (n=195) completed direct and indirect measures of values before working on entrepreneurial, consulting, and marketing tasks. Regression analysis showed both types of measures were effective predictors. Indirect measures yielded better prediction and better discrimination of cross-task performance differences. (Contains 55…

  6. The Predictive Value of Selection Criteria in an Urban Magnet School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lohmeier, Jill Hendrickson; Raad, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The predictive value of selection criteria on outcome data from two cohorts of students (Total N = 525) accepted to an urban magnet high school were evaluated. Regression analyses of typical screening variables (suspensions, absences, metropolitan achievement tests, middle school grade point averages [GPAs], Matrix Analogies test scores, and…

  7. Understanding the Communicative Implications of Initial Impressions: A Longitudinal Test of Predicted Outcome Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horan, Sean M.; Houser, Marian L.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to test predicted outcome value theory (POV) in the classroom in order to discover the implications of students' POV judgments. Specifically, we explored the relationships among students' initial POV judgments and students' communication. To that end, we conducted a two-phase study in which students completed…

  8. Value of metastin receptor immunohistochemistry in predicting metastasis after radical nephrectomy for pT1 clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Shoji, Sunao; Nakano, Mayura; Tomonaga, Tetsuro; Kim, Hakushi; Hanai, Kazuya; Usui, Yukio; Nagata, Yoshihiro; Miyazawa, Masaki; Sato, Haruhiro; Tang, Xian Yang; Osamura, Yoshiyuki Robert; Uchida, Toyoaki; Terachi, Toshiro; Takeya, Koichi

    2013-06-01

    KISS-1 is a metastasis-suppressor gene of human melanoma, and encodes metastin, which was identified as the ligand of a G-protein-coupled receptor (metastin receptor). The precursor protein is cleaved to 54 amino acids, which may be further truncated into carboxy-terminal fragments. Previous studies showed that lack of metastin receptor in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is associated with tumor progression, but the prediction of metastasis in patients with pT1 clear cell RCC after radical nephrectomy is difficult. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of metastin receptor immunohistochemistry in predicting metastasis after nephrectomy for pT1 clear cell RCC. After verification of the correlation between immunostaining and mRNA expression, we evaluated the clinical value of metastin receptor immunohistochemistry. Fifty-four patients were enrolled in this study; following radical nephrectomy, seven patients were found to have lung metastasis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value with negative immunostaining of metastin receptor were 85.7, 97.6, 46.2, and 97.6 %, respectively. Metastasis-free survival rates were significantly higher in patients with positive staining (97.6 %) than in patients with negative staining (53.8 %) (P < 0.001). In univariate analysis for metastasis-free survival, negative immunostaining of metastin receptor was a significant risk factor for metastasis (P = 0.001). Furthermore, negative immunostaining of metastin receptor was an independent predictor for metastasis in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 3.735; 95 % CI 0.629-22.174; P = 0.002). In conclusion, our study suggests that negative expression of metastin receptor in clear cell RCC is significantly related to metastasis.

  9. Predicting negative life outcomes from early aggressive-disruptive behavior trajectories: gender differences in maladaptation across life domains.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Catherine P; Schaeffer, Cindy M; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-08-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to determine whether different trajectories of aggressive and disruptive behavior problems were associated with a range of negative life outcomes in young adulthood. General growth mixture modeling was used to classify the youths' patterns of aggressive-disruptive behavior across elementary school. These trajectories were then used to predict early sexual activity, early pregnancy, school dropout, unemployment, and drug abuse in young adulthood. The trajectories predicted the number but not type of negative life outcomes experienced. Girls with the chronic high aggression-disruption (CHAD) pattern experienced more negative outcomes than girls with consistently moderate levels, who were at greater risk than nonaggressive-nondisruptive girls. Boys with CHAD and boys with an increasing pattern had equal levels of risk for experiencing negative outcomes. The findings are consistent with transactional models of development and have implications for preventive interventions.

  10. Feature extraction by statistical contact potentials and wavelet transform for predicting subcellular localizations in gram negative bacterial proteins.

    PubMed

    Arango-Argoty, G A; Jaramillo-Garzón, J A; Castellanos-Domínguez, G

    2015-01-07

    Predicting the localization of a protein has become a useful practice for inferring its function. Most of the reported methods to predict subcellular localizations in Gram-negative bacterial proteins make use of standard protein representations that generally do not take into account the distribution of the amino acids and the structural information of the proteins. Here, we propose a protein representation based on the structural information contained in the pairwise statistical contact potentials. The wavelet transform decodes the information contained in the primary structure of the proteins, allowing the identification of patterns along the proteins, which are used to characterize the subcellular localizations. Then, a support vector machine classifier is trained to categorize them. Cellular compartments like periplasm and extracellular medium are difficult to predict, having a high false negative rate. The wavelet-based method achieves an overall high performance while maintaining a low false negative rate, particularly, on "periplasm" and "extracellular medium". Our results suggest the proposed protein characterization is a useful alternative to representing and predicting protein sequences over the classical and cutting edge protein depictions.

  11. Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales.

    PubMed

    Carter, Gregory; Milner, Allison; McGill, Katie; Pirkis, Jane; Kapur, Navneet; Spittal, Matthew J

    2017-03-16

    BackgroundPrediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV).AimsTo identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal behaviours.MethodA systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours.ResultsFor all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI 19.5-35.6%) for psychiatric in-patients.ConclusionsNo 'high-risk' classification was clinically useful. Prevalence imposes a ceiling on PPV. Treatment should reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors and offer effective interventions for selected subpopulations and unselected clinical populations.

  12. Predictive value of hematological markers of systemic inflammation for managing cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lin; Jia, Jing; Lin, Lu; Guo, Junying; Ye, Xingming; Zheng, Xiongwei; Chen, Ying

    2017-01-26

    The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and red cell distribution width (RDW) are markers of systemic inflammation with prognostic significance for cancers. The aim of the study was to investigate the predictive significance of pretreatment values of NLR, PLR, and RDW in cervical cancer. We retrospectively analyzed 515 patients with cancer. Median values of NLR and PLR were higher in patients with cancer compared with controls and were consistently elevated during tumor progression, while the RDW was uninformative. Increased NLR was associated with lymph node (LN) metastasis and depth of stromal infiltration, and increased PLR correlated only with LN metastasis. The pretreatment NLR or PLR value was a significant predictor of LN metastasis, which enhanced when NLR and PLR values were combined. Further, NLR and PLR were as effective as squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag) for predicting distant tumor metastasis. However, no prognostic significance of NLR or PLR was found in the patients with early cancer stages. Our study suggested that pretreatment values of NLR and PLR might be helpful to predict the presence of distant and LN metastasis in patients with cervical carcinoma, but not adequate prognostic factors for early stage patients.

  13. Negative plant-soil feedback predicts tree-species relative abundance in a tropical forest.

    PubMed

    Mangan, Scott A; Schnitzer, Stefan A; Herre, Edward A; Mack, Keenan M L; Valencia, Mariana C; Sanchez, Evelyn I; Bever, James D

    2010-08-05

    The accumulation of species-specific enemies around adults is hypothesized to maintain plant diversity by limiting the recruitment of conspecific seedlings relative to heterospecific seedlings. Although previous studies in forested ecosystems have documented patterns consistent with the process of negative feedback, these studies are unable to address which classes of enemies (for example, pathogens, invertebrates, mammals) exhibit species-specific effects strong enough to generate negative feedback, and whether negative feedback at the level of the individual tree is sufficient to influence community-wide forest composition. Here we use fully reciprocal shade-house and field experiments to test whether the performance of conspecific tree seedlings (relative to heterospecific seedlings) is reduced when grown in the presence of enemies associated with adult trees. Both experiments provide strong evidence for negative plant-soil feedback mediated by soil biota. In contrast, above-ground enemies (mammals, foliar herbivores and foliar pathogens) contributed little to negative feedback observed in the field. In both experiments, we found that tree species that showed stronger negative feedback were less common as adults in the forest community, indicating that susceptibility to soil biota may determine species relative abundance in these tropical forests. Finally, our simulation models confirm that the strength of local negative feedback that we measured is sufficient to produce the observed community-wide patterns in tree-species relative abundance. Our findings indicate that plant-soil feedback is an important mechanism that can maintain species diversity and explain patterns of tree-species relative abundance in tropical forests.

  14. Defining the cutoff value of MGMT gene promoter methylation and its predictive capacity in glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Brigliadori, Giovanni; Foca, Flavia; Dall'Agata, Monia; Rengucci, Claudia; Melegari, Elisabetta; Cerasoli, Serenella; Amadori, Dino; Calistri, Daniele; Faedi, Marina

    2016-06-01

    Despite advances in the treatment of glioblastoma (GBM), median survival is 12-15 months. O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter methylation status is acknowledged as a predictive marker for temozolomide (TMZ) treatment. When MGMT promoter values fall into a "methylated" range, a better response to chemotherapy is expected. However, a cutoff that discriminates between "methylated" and "unmethylated" status has yet to be defined. We aimed to identify the best cutoff value and to find out whether variability in methylation profiles influences the predictive capacity of MGMT promoter methylation. Data from 105 GBM patients treated between 2008 and 2013 were analyzed. MGMT promoter methylation status was determined by analyzing 10 CpG islands by pyrosequencing. Patients were treated with radiotherapy followed by TMZ. MGMT promoter methylation status was classified into unmethylated 0-9 %, methylated 10-29 % and methylated 30-100 %. Statistical analysis showed that an assumed methylation cutoff of 9 % led to an overestimation of responders. All patients in the 10-29 % methylation group relapsed before the 18-month evaluation. Patients with a methylation status ≥30 % showed a median overall survival of 25.2 months compared to 15.2 months in all other patients, confirming this value as the best methylation cutoff. Despite wide variability among individual profiles, single CpG island analysis did not reveal any correlation between single CpG island methylation values and relapse or death. Specific CpG island methylation status did not influence the predictive value of MGMT. The predictive role of MGMT promoter methylation was maintained only with a cutoff value ≥30 %.

  15. Event-related potentials reveal task-dependence and inter-individual differences in negation processing during silent listening and explicit truth-value evaluation.

    PubMed

    Herbert, C; Kissler, J

    2014-09-26

    In sentences such as dogs cannot fly/bark, evaluation of the truth-value of the sentence is assumed to appear after the negation has been integrated into the sentence structure. Moreover negation processing and truth-value processing are considered effortful processes, whereas processing of the semantic relatedness of the words within sentences is thought to occur automatically. In the present study, modulation of event-related brain potentials (N400 and late positive potential, LPP) was investigated during an implicit task (silent listening) and active truth-value evaluation to test these theoretical assumptions and determine if truth-value evaluation will be modulated by the way participants processed the negated information implicitly prior to truth-value verification. Participants first listened to negated sentences and then evaluated these sentences for their truth-value in an active evaluation task. During passive listening, the LPP was generally more pronounced for targets in false negative (FN) than true negative (TN) sentences, indicating enhanced attention allocation to semantically-related but false targets. N400 modulation by truth-value (FN>TN) was observed in 11 out of 24 participants. However, during active evaluation, processing of semantically-unrelated but true targets (TN) elicited larger N400 and LPP amplitudes as well as a pronounced frontal negativity. This pattern was particularly prominent in those 11 individuals, whose N400 modulation during silent listening indicated that they were more sensitive to violations of the truth-value than to semantic priming effects. The results provide evidence for implicit truth-value processing during silent listening of negated sentences and for task dependence related to inter-individual differences in implicit negation processing.

  16. Comparing the Effects of Negative and Mixed Emotional Messages on Predicted Occasional Excessive Drinking

    PubMed Central

    Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

    2008-01-01

    In this work we present two types of emotional message, negative (sadness) versus mixed (joy and sadness), with the aim of studying their differential effect on attitude change and the probability estimated by participants of repeating the behavior of occasional excessive drinking in the near future. The results show that for the group of participants with moderate experience in this behavior the negative message, compared to the mixed one, is associated with higher probability of repeating the risk behavior and a less negative attitude toward it. These results suggest that mixed emotional messages (e.g. joy and sadness messages) could be more effective in campaigns for the prevention of this risk behavior. PMID:25977606

  17. Depression-related difficulties disengaging from negative faces are associated with sustained attention to negative feedback during social evaluation and predict stress recovery

    PubMed Central

    Romero, Nuria; De Raedt, Rudi

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to clarify: 1) the presence of depression-related attention bias related to a social stressor, 2) its association with depression-related attention biases as measured under standard conditions, and 3) their association with impaired stress recovery in depression. A sample of 39 participants reporting a broad range of depression levels completed a standard eye-tracking paradigm in which they had to engage/disengage their gaze with/from emotional faces. Participants then underwent a stress induction (i.e., giving a speech), in which their eye movements to false emotional feedback were measured, and stress reactivity and recovery were assessed. Depression level was associated with longer times to engage/disengage attention with/from negative faces under standard conditions and with sustained attention to negative feedback during the speech. These depression-related biases were associated and mediated the association between depression level and self-reported stress recovery, predicting lower recovery from stress after giving the speech. PMID:28362826

  18. Negative prognostic value of CD34 antigen also if expressed on a small population of acute promyelocytic leukemia cells.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; De Propris, Maria Stefania; Stefanizzi, Caterina; Raponi, Sara; Molica, Matteo; Colafigli, Gioia; Minotti, Clara; Latagliata, Roberto; Diverio, Daniela; Guarini, Anna; Foà, Robin

    2014-11-01

    Potential clinical significance of CD34 expression in acute promyelocitic leukemia (APL) has not been deeply investigated. We hereby analyzed the clinico-biological features and treatment outcome of APL patients in relation to CD34 expression, even when expressed in a small subpopulation: 114 APL patients homogeneously treated with the AIDA schedule were included in the study and prognostic correlation with respect to CD34 expression, both when expressed in association with CD2 and as isolated expression (cutoff ≥2 to <10 % or ≥10 %), were investigated. CD34 was associated to CD2 in 30 patients and was isolated in 19 patients. When compared to the CD34-negative population, CD34/CD2 expression identified a subgroup with characteristic features: M3 variant subtype (26 vs 7 % in the negative group, p = 0.02), bcr3 transcript subtype (73 vs 32 %, p = 0.001), high risk according to the risk of relapse (66 vs 17 %, p = 0.002), high incidence of differentiation syndrome (26 vs 12 %, p = 0.01), lower overall survival (88 vs 95 %), and a significantly higher rate of relapse (22 vs 13.8 %, p = 0.05). We then evaluated the prognostic value of isolated CD34 expression: it was detected in nine patients with a cutoff of expression ≥10 % and in 10 patients with a cutoff ≥2 but <10 %. Isolated CD34 positivity identified a subgroup with a classic morphology (79 %), bcr1 prevalence (53 %), higher rate of relapse (37 vs 13.8 % in the negative group, p = 0.002), higher incidence of differentiation syndrome (55 vs 12 %, p = 0.03), and lower overall survival (60 vs 95 %, p = 0.001). The results of our study confirm that CD34/CD2 expression characterizes a subset of APL with a high WBC count and a variant morphological subtype, associated with an unfavorable clinical course. We also show that the isolated expression of CD34, even at a low cutoff, identifies a group of classic APL with a negative prognosis. Further studies aimed at identifying other

  19. 111In platelet imaging of left ventricular thrombi. Predictive value for systemic emboli

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, J.R.; Ritchie, J.L. )

    1990-04-01

    To determine whether a positive indium 111 platelet image for a left ventricular thrombus, which indicates ongoing thrombogenic activity, predicts an increased risk of systemic embolization, we compared the embolic rate in 34 patients with positive {sup 111}In platelet images with that in 69 patients with negative images during a mean follow-up of 38 +/- 31 (+/- SD) months after platelet imaging. The positive and negative image groups were similar with respect to age (59 +/- 11 vs. 62 +/- 10 years), prevalence of previous infarction (94% vs. 78%, p less than 0.05), time from last infarction (28 +/- 51 vs. 33 +/- 47 months), ejection fraction (29 +/- 14 vs. 33 +/- 14), long-term or paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (15% vs. 26%), warfarin therapy during follow-up (26% vs. 20%), platelet-inhibitory therapy during follow-up (50% vs. 33%), injected {sup 111}In dose (330 +/- 92 vs. 344 +/- 118 microCi), and latest imaging time (greater than or equal to 48 hours in all patients). During follow-up, embolic events occurred in 21% (seven of 34) of patients with positive platelet images for left ventricular thrombi as compared with 3% (two of 69) of patients with negative images (p = 0.002). By actuarial methods, at 42 months after platelet imaging, only 86% of patients with positive images were embolus free as compared with 98% of patients with negative images (p less than 0.01).

  20. Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

    PubMed

    Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

    2011-02-01

    The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis.

  1. Autocorrelation structure at rest predicts value correlates of single neurons during reward-guided choice

    PubMed Central

    Cavanagh, Sean E; Wallis, Joni D; Kennerley, Steven W; Hunt, Laurence T

    2016-01-01

    Correlates of value are routinely observed in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) during reward-guided decision making. In previous work (Hunt et al., 2015), we argued that PFC correlates of chosen value are a consequence of varying rates of a dynamical evidence accumulation process. Yet within PFC, there is substantial variability in chosen value correlates across individual neurons. Here we show that this variability is explained by neurons having different temporal receptive fields of integration, indexed by examining neuronal spike rate autocorrelation structure whilst at rest. We find that neurons with protracted resting temporal receptive fields exhibit stronger chosen value correlates during choice. Within orbitofrontal cortex, these neurons also sustain coding of chosen value from choice through the delivery of reward, providing a potential neural mechanism for maintaining predictions and updating stored values during learning. These findings reveal that within PFC, variability in temporal specialisation across neurons predicts involvement in specific decision-making computations. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18937.001 PMID:27705742

  2. The application of SEAT values for predicting how compliant seats with backrests influence vibration discomfort.

    PubMed

    Basri, Bazil; Griffin, Michael J

    2014-11-01

    The extent to which a seat can provide useful attenuation of vehicle vibration depends on three factors: the characteristics of the vehicle motion, the vibration transmissibility of the seat, and the sensitivity of the body to vibration. The 'seat effective amplitude transmissibility' (i.e., SEAT value) reflects how these three factors vary with the frequency and the direction of vibration so as to predict the vibration isolation efficiency of a seat. The SEAT value is mostly used to select seat cushions or seat suspensions based on the transmission of vertical vibration to the principal supporting surface of a seat. This study investigated the accuracy of SEAT values in predicting how seats with backrests influence the discomfort caused by multiple-input vibration. Twelve male subjects participated in a four-part experiment to determine equivalent comfort contours, the relative discomfort, the location of discomfort, and seat transmissibility with three foam seats and a rigid reference seat at 14 frequencies of vibration in the range 1-20 Hz at magnitudes of vibration from 0.2 to 1.6 ms(-2) r.m.s. The 'measured seat dynamic discomfort' (MSDD) was calculated for each foam seat from the ratio of the vibration acceleration required to cause similar discomfort with the foam seat and with the rigid reference seat. Using the frequency weightings in current standards, the SEAT values of each seat were calculated from the ratio of overall ride values with the foam seat to the overall ride values with the rigid reference seat, and compared to the corresponding MSDD at each frequency. The SEAT values provided good predictions of how the foam seats increased vibration discomfort at frequencies around the 4-Hz resonance but reduced vibration discomfort at frequencies greater than about 6.3 Hz, with discrepancies explained by a known limitation of the frequency weightings.

  3. Midbrain dopamine neurons compute inferred and cached value prediction errors in a common framework

    PubMed Central

    Sadacca, Brian F; Jones, Joshua L; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    Midbrain dopamine neurons have been proposed to signal reward prediction errors as defined in temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms. While these models have been extremely powerful in interpreting dopamine activity, they typically do not use value derived through inference in computing errors. This is important because much real world behavior – and thus many opportunities for error-driven learning – is based on such predictions. Here, we show that error-signaling rat dopamine neurons respond to the inferred, model-based value of cues that have not been paired with reward and do so in the same framework as they track the putative cached value of cues previously paired with reward. This suggests that dopamine neurons access a wider variety of information than contemplated by standard TD models and that, while their firing conforms to predictions of TD models in some cases, they may not be restricted to signaling errors from TD predictions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13665.001 PMID:26949249

  4. Semiparametric models of time-dependent predictive values of prognostic biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Yingye; Cai, Tianxi; Stanford, Janet L; Feng, Ziding

    2010-03-01

    Rigorous statistical evaluation of the predictive values of novel biomarkers is critical prior to applying novel biomarkers into routine standard care. It is important to identify factors that influence the performance of a biomarker in order to determine the optimal conditions for test performance. We propose a covariate-specific time-dependent positive predictive values curve to quantify the predictive accuracy of a prognostic marker measured on a continuous scale and with censored failure time outcome. The covariate effect is accommodated with a semiparametric regression model framework. In particular, we adopt a smoothed survival time regression technique (Dabrowska, 1997, The Annals of Statistics 25, 1510-1540) to account for the situation where risk for the disease occurrence and progression is likely to change over time. In addition, we provide asymptotic distribution theory and resampling-based procedures for making statistical inference on the covariate-specific positive predictive values. We illustrate our approach with numerical studies and a dataset from a prostate cancer study.

  5. Modeling Polio Data Using the First Order Non-Negative Integer-Valued Autoregressive, INAR(1), Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazifedan, Turaj; Shitan, Mahendran

    Time series data may consists of counts, such as the number of road accidents, the number of patients in a certain hospital, the number of customers waiting for service at a certain time and etc. When the value of the observations are large it is usual to use Gaussian Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process to model the time series. However if the observed counts are small, it is not appropriate to use ARMA process to model the observed phenomenon. In such cases we need to model the time series data by using Non-Negative Integer valued Autoregressive (INAR) process. The modeling of counts data is based on the binomial thinning operator. In this paper we illustrate the modeling of counts data using the monthly number of Poliomyelitis data in United States between January 1970 until December 1983. We applied the AR(1), Poisson regression model and INAR(1) model and the suitability of these models were assessed by using the Index of Agreement(I.A.). We found that INAR(1) model is more appropriate in the sense it had a better I.A. and it is natural since the data are counts.

  6. Differential Encoding of Factors Influencing Predicted Reward Value in Monkey Rostral Anterior Cingulate Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Toda, Koji; Sugase-Miyamoto, Yasuko; Mizuhiki, Takashi; Inaba, Kiyonori; Richmond, Barry J.; Shidara, Munetaka

    2012-01-01

    Background The value of a predicted reward can be estimated based on the conjunction of both the intrinsic reward value and the length of time to obtain it. The question we addressed is how the two aspects, reward size and proximity to reward, influence the responses of neurons in rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC), a brain region thought to play an important role in reward processing. Methods and Findings We recorded from single neurons while two monkeys performed a multi-trial reward schedule task. The monkeys performed 1–4 sequential color discrimination trials to obtain a reward of 1–3 liquid drops. There were two task conditions, a valid cue condition, where the number of trials and reward amount were associated with visual cues, and a random cue condition, where the cue was picked from the cue set at random. In the valid cue condition, the neuronal firing is strongly modulated by the predicted reward proximity during the trials. Information about the predicted reward amount is almost absent at those times. In substantial subpopulations, the neuronal responses decreased or increased gradually through schedule progress to the predicted outcome. These two gradually modulating signals could be used to calculate the effect of time on the perception of reward value. In the random cue condition, little information about the reward proximity or reward amount is encoded during the course of the trial before reward delivery, but when the reward is actually delivered the responses reflect both the reward proximity and reward amount. Conclusions Our results suggest that the rACC neurons encode information about reward proximity and amount in a manner that is dependent on utility of reward information. The manner in which the information is represented could be used in the moment-to-moment calculation of the effect of time and amount on predicted outcome value. PMID:22279569

  7. Genome-wide protein localization prediction strategies for gram negative bacteria

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, Margaret F.

    2011-06-15

    Genome-wide prediction of protein subcellular localization is an important type of evidence used for inferring protein function. While a variety of computational tools have been developed for this purpose, errors in the gene models and use of protein sorting signals that are not recognized by the more commonly accepted tools can diminish the accuracy of their output. As part of an effort to manually curate the annotations of 19 strains of Shewanella, numerous insights were gained regarding the use of computational tools and proteomics data to predict protein localization. Identification of the suite of secretion systems present in each strain at the start of the process made it possible to tailor-fit the subsequent localization prediction strategies to each strain for improved accuracy. Comparisons of the computational predictions among orthologous proteins revealed inconsistencies in the computational outputs, which could often be resolved by adjusting the gene models or ortholog group memberships. While proteomic data was useful for verifying start site predictions and post-translational proteolytic cleavage, care was needed to distinguish cellular versus sample processing-mediated cleavage events. Searches for lipoprotein signal peptides revealed that neither TatP nor LipoP are designed for identification of lipoprotein substrates of the twin arginine translocation system and that the +2 rule for lipoprotein sorting does not apply to this Genus. Analysis of the relationships between domain occurrence and protein localization prediction enabled identification of numerous location-informative domains which could then be used to refine or increase confidence in location predictions. This collective knowledge was used to develop a general strategy for predicting protein localization that could be adapted to other organisms.

  8. Long-Latency Reductions in Gamma Power Predict Hemodynamic Changes That Underlie the Negative BOLD Signal

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Samuel; Bruyns-Haylett, Michael; Kennerley, Aneurin; Zheng, Ying; Martin, Chris; Jones, Myles; Redgrave, Peter; Berwick, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Studies that use prolonged periods of sensory stimulation report associations between regional reductions in neural activity and negative blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signaling. However, the neural generators of the negative BOLD response remain to be characterized. Here, we use single-impulse electrical stimulation of the whisker pad in the anesthetized rat to identify components of the neural response that are related to “negative” hemodynamic changes in the brain. Laminar multiunit activity and local field potential recordings of neural activity were performed concurrently with two-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy measuring hemodynamic changes. Repeated measurements over multiple stimulation trials revealed significant variations in neural responses across session and animal datasets. Within this variation, we found robust long-latency decreases (300 and 2000 ms after stimulus presentation) in gamma-band power (30–80 Hz) in the middle-superficial cortical layers in regions surrounding the activated whisker barrel cortex. This reduction in gamma frequency activity was associated with corresponding decreases in the hemodynamic responses that drive the negative BOLD signal. These findings suggest a close relationship between BOLD responses and neural events that operate over time scales that outlast the initiating sensory stimulus, and provide important insights into the neurophysiological basis of negative neuroimaging signals. PMID:25788681

  9. Early Negative Affect Predicts Anxiety, Not Autism, in Preschool Boys with Fragile X Syndrome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tonnsen, Bridgette L.; Malone, Patrick S.; Hatton, Deborah D.; Roberts, Jane E.

    2013-01-01

    Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) face high risk for anxiety disorders, yet no studies have explored FXS as a high-risk sample for investigating early manifestations of anxiety outcomes. Negative affect is one of the most salient predictors of problem behaviors and has been associated with both anxiety and autistic outcomes in clinical and…

  10. A translational pharmacology approach to understanding the predictive value of abuse potential assessments.

    PubMed

    Horton, David B; Potter, David M; Mead, Andy N

    2013-09-01

    Within the drug development industry the assessment of abuse potential for novel molecules involves the generation and review of data from multiple sources, ranging from in-vitro binding and functional assays through to in-vivo nonclinical models in mammals, as well as collection of information from studies in humans. This breadth of data aligns with current expectations from regulatory agencies in both the USA and Europe. To date, there have been a limited number of reviews on the predictive value of individual models within this sequence, but there has been no systematic review on how each of these models contributes to our overall understanding of abuse potential risk. To address this, we analyzed data from 100 small molecules to compare the predictive validity for drug scheduling status of a number of models that typically contribute to the abuse potential assessment package. These models range from the assessment of in-vitro binding and functional profiles at receptors or transporters typically associated with abuse through in-vivo models including locomotor activity, drug discrimination, and self-administration in rodents. Data from subjective report assessments in humans following acute dosing of compounds were also included. The predictive value of each model was then evaluated relative to the scheduling status of each drug in the USA. In recognition of the fact that drug scheduling can be influenced by factors other than the pharmacology of the drug, we also evaluated the predictive value of each assay for the outcome of the human subjective effects assessment. This approach provides an objective and statistical assessment of the predictive value of many of the models typically applied within the pharmaceutical industry to evaluate abuse potential risk. In addition, the impact of combining information from multiple models was examined. This analysis adds to our understanding of the predictive value of each model, allows us to critically evaluate the

  11. Amygdala Response to Negative Stimuli Predicts PTSD Symptom Onset following a Terrorist Attack

    PubMed Central

    McLaughlin, Katie A.; Busso, Daniel S.; Duys, Andrea; Green, Jennifer Greif; Alves, Sonia; Way, Marcus; Sheridan, Margaret A.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exhibit heightened amygdala reactivity and atypical activation patterns in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) in response to negative emotional information. It is unknown whether these aspects of neural function are risk factors for PTSD or consequences of either trauma exposure or onset of the disorder. We had a unique opportunity to investigate this issue following the terrorist attacks at the 2013 Boston Marathon and the ensuing manhunt and shelter in place order. We examined associations of neural function measured prior to the attack with PTSD symptom onset related to these events. METHODS A sample of 15 adolescents (mean age=16.5 years) who previously participated in a neuroimaging study completed a survey assessing posttraumatic symptoms related to the terrorist attack. We examined blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) response to viewing and actively down-regulating emotional responses to negative stimuli in regions previously associated with PTSD, including the amygdala, hippocampus, and mPFC, as prospective predictors of posttraumatic symptom onset. RESULTS Increased BOLD signal to negative emotional stimuli in the left amygdala was strongly associated with posttraumatic symptoms following the attack. Reduced bilateral hippocampal activation during effortful attempts to down-regulate emotional responses to negative stimuli was also associated with greater posttraumatic symptoms. Associations of amygdala reactivity with posttraumatic symptoms were robust to controls for pre-existing depression, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms and prior exposure to violence. CONCLUSIONS Amygdala reactivity to negative emotional information might represent a neurobiological marker of vulnerability to traumatic stress and, potentially, a risk factor for PTSD. PMID:24995938

  12. Developing Risk Prediction Models for Kidney Injury and Assessing Incremental Value for Novel Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Kerr, Kathleen F.; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients’ risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. PMID:24855282

  13. Predicting changes in depressive symptoms from pregnancy to postpartum: the role of brooding rumination and negative inferential styles.

    PubMed

    Barnum, Sarah E; Woody, Mary L; Gibb, Brandon E

    2013-02-01

    The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women's initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women's negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy.

  14. Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

    PubMed Central

    Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

    2014-01-01

    The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

  15. The role of numeracy and approximate number system acuity in predicting value and probability distortion.

    PubMed

    Patalano, Andrea L; Saltiel, Jason R; Machlin, Laura; Barth, Hilary

    2015-12-01

    It is well documented that individuals distort outcome values and probabilities when making choices from descriptions, and there is evidence of systematic individual differences in distortion. In the present study, we investigated the relationship between individual differences in such distortions and two measures of numerical competence, numeracy and approximate number system (ANS) acuity. Participants indicated certainty equivalents for a series of simple monetary gambles, and data were used to estimate individual-level value and probability distortion, using a cumulative prospect theory framework. We found moderately strong negative correlations between numeracy and value and probability distortion, but only weak and non-statistically reliable correlations between ANS acuity and distortions. We conclude that low numeracy contributes to number distortion in decision making, but that approximate number system acuity might not underlie this relationship.

  16. Varicella Zoster Virus in American Samoa: Seroprevalence and Predictive Value of Varicella Disease History Among Elementary and College Students

    PubMed Central

    Mahamud, A.; Leung, J.; Masunu-Faleafaga, Y.; Teshale, E.; Williams, R.; Dulski, T.; Thieme, M.; Garcia, P.; Schmid, D.S.; Bialek, S.R.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The epidemiology of varicella is believed to differ between temperate and tropical countries. We conducted a varicella seroprevalence study among elementary and college students in the US-territory of American Samoa before introduction of a routine varicella-vaccination program. Sera from 515 elementary and 208 college students were tested for the presence of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) IgG antibodies. VZV seroprevalence increased with age from 76.0% in the 4–6 year-olds to 97.7% in those ≥23 years-old. Reported history of varicella disease for elementary students was significantly associated with VZV seropositivity. The positive and negative predictive values of varicella disease history were 93.4% and 36.4% in elementary students and 97.6% and 3.0% in college students. VZV seroprevalence in this Pacific island appears to be similar to that in temperate countries and suggests endemic VZV circulation. PMID:23890292

  17. Varicella zoster virus in American Samoa: seroprevalence and predictive value of varicella disease history in elementary and college students.

    PubMed

    Mahamud, A; Leung, J; Masunu-Faleafaga, Y; Teshale, E; Williams, R; Dulski, T; Thieme, M; Garcia, P; Schmid, D S; Bialek, S R

    2014-05-01

    The epidemiology of varicella is believed to differ between temperate and tropical countries. We conducted a varicella seroprevalence study in elementary and college students in the US territory of American Samoa before introduction of a routine varicella vaccination programme. Sera from 515 elementary and 208 college students were tested for the presence of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) IgG antibodies. VZV seroprevalence increased with age from 76·0% in the 4-6 years group to 97·7% in those aged ⩾23 years. Reported history of varicella disease for elementary students was significantly associated with VZV seropositivity. The positive and negative predictive values of varicella disease history were 93·4% and 36·4%, respectively, in elementary students and 97·6% and 3·0%, respectively, in college students. VZV seroprevalence in this Pacific island appears to be similar to that in temperate countries and suggests endemic VZV circulation.

  18. The utility and predictive value of combinations of low penetrance genes for screening and risk prediction of colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hawken, Steven J.; Greenwood, Celia M. T.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Kustra, Rafal; McLaughlin, John; Yang, Quanhe; Zanke, Brent W.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the fact that colorectal cancer (CRC) is a highly treatable form of cancer if detected early, a very low proportion of the eligible population undergoes screening for this form of cancer. Integrating a genomic screening profile as a component of existing screening programs for CRC could potentially improve the effectiveness of population screening by allowing the assignment of individuals to different types and intensities of screening and also by potentially increasing the uptake of existing screening programs. We evaluated the utility and predictive value of genomic profiling as applied to CRC, and as a potential component of a population-based cancer screening program. We generated simulated data representing a typical North American population including a variety of genetic profiles, with a range of relative risks and prevalences for individual risk genes. We then used these data to estimate parameters characterizing the predictive value of a logistic regression model built on genetic markers for CRC. Meta-analyses of genetic associations with CRC were used in building science to inform the simulation work, and to select genetic variants to include in logistic regression model-building using data from the ARCTIC study in Ontario, which included 1,200 CRC cases and a similar number of cancer-free population-based controls. Our simulations demonstrate that for reasonable assumptions involving modest relative risks for individual genetic variants, that substantial predictive power can be achieved when risk variants are common (e.g., prevalence > 20%) and data for enough risk variants are available (e.g., ~140–160). Pilot work in population data shows modest, but statistically significant predictive utility for a small collection of risk variants, smaller in effect than age and gender alone in predicting an individual’s CRC risk. Further genotyping and many more samples will be required, and indeed the discovery of many more risk loci associated with

  19. [Prediction of SPAD value in oilseed rape leaves using hyperspectral imaging technique].

    PubMed

    Ding, Xi-bin; Liu, Fei; Zhang, Chu; He, Yong

    2015-02-01

    In the present work, prediction models of SPAD value (Soil and Plant Analyzer Development, often used as a parameter to indicate chlorophyll content) in oilseed rape leaves were successfully built using hyperspectral imaging technique. The hy perspectral images of 160 oilseed rape leaf samples in the spectral range of 380-1030 nm were acquired. Average spectrum was extracted from the region of interest (ROI) of each sample. We chose spectral data in the spectral range of 500-900 nm for analysis. Using Monte Carlo partial least squares(MC-PLS) algorithm, 13 samples were identified as outliers and eliminated. Based on the spectral information and measured SPAD values of the rest 147 samples, several estimation models have been built based on different parameters using different algorithms for comparison, including: (1) a SPAD value estimation model based on partial least squares(PLS) in the whole wavelength region of 500-900 nm; (2) a SPAD value estimation model based on successive projections algorithmcombined with PLS(SPA-PLS); (3) 4 kind of simple experience SPAD value estimation models in which red edge position was used as an argument; (4) 4 kind of simple experience SPAD value estimation models in which three vegetation indexes R710/R760, (R750-R705)/(R750-R705) and R860/(R550 x R708), which all have been proved to have a good relevance with chlorophyll content, were used as an argument respectively; (5) a SPAD value estimation model based on PLS using the 3 vegetation indexes mentioned above. The results indicate that the optimal prediction performance is achieved by PLS model in the whole wavelength region of 500-900 nm, which has a correlation coefficient(r(p)) of 0.8339 and a root mean squares error of predicted (RMSEP) of 1.52. The SPA-PLS model can provide avery close prediction result while the calibration computation has been significantly reduced and the calibration speed has been accelerated sharply. For simple experience models based on red edge

  20. Accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values for residual feed intake in Angus and Charolais beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Chen, L; Schenkel, F; Vinsky, M; Crews, D H; Li, C

    2013-10-01

    In beef cattle, phenotypic data that are difficult and/or costly to measure, such as feed efficiency, and DNA marker genotypes are usually available on a small number of animals of different breeds or populations. To achieve a maximal accuracy of genomic prediction using the phenotype and genotype data, strategies for forming a training population to predict genomic breeding values (GEBV) of the selection candidates need to be evaluated. In this study, we examined the accuracy of predicting GEBV for residual feed intake (RFI) based on 522 Angus and 395 Charolais steers genotyped on SNP with the Illumina Bovine SNP50 Beadchip for 3 training population forming strategies: within breed, across breed, and by pooling data from the 2 breeds (i.e., combined). Two other scenarios with the training and validation data split by birth year and by sire family within a breed were also investigated to assess the impact of genetic relationships on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Three statistical methods including the best linear unbiased prediction with the relationship matrix defined based on the pedigree (PBLUP), based on the SNP genotypes (GBLUP), and a Bayesian method (BayesB) were used to predict the GEBV. The results showed that the accuracy of the GEBV prediction was the highest when the prediction was within breed and when the validation population had greater genetic relationships with the training population, with a maximum of 0.58 for Angus and 0.64 for Charolais. The within-breed prediction accuracies dropped to 0.29 and 0.38, respectively, when the validation populations had a minimal pedigree link with the training population. When the training population of a different breed was used to predict the GEBV of the validation population, that is, across-breed genomic prediction, the accuracies were further reduced to 0.10 to 0.22, depending on the prediction method used. Pooling data from the 2 breeds to form the training population resulted in accuracies increased

  1. Prediction of Absolute Hydroxyl pKa Values for 3-Hydroxypyridin-4-ones.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yu-Lin; Doltsinis, Nikos L; Hider, Robert C; Barlow, Dave J

    2012-10-18

    pKa values have been calculated for a series of 3-hydroxypyridin-4-one (HPO) chelators in aqueous solution using coordination constrained ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) in combination with thermodynamic integration. This dynamics-based methodology in which the solvent is treated explicitly at the ab initio level has been compared with more commonly used simple, static, approaches. Comparison with experimental numbers has confirmed that the AIMD-based approach predicts the correct trend in the pKa values and produces the lowest average error (∼0.3 pKa units). The corresponding pKa predictions made via static quantum mechanical calculations overestimate the pKa values by 0.3-7 pKa units, with the extent of error dependent on the choice of thermodynamic cycle employed. The use of simple quantitative structure property relationship methods gives prediction errors of 0.3-1 pKa units, with some values overestimated and some underestimated. Beyond merely calculating pKa values, the AIMD simulations provide valuable additional insight into the atomistic details of the proton transfer mechanism and the solvation structure and dynamics at all stages of the reaction. For all HPOs studied, it is seen that proton transfer takes place along a chain of three H2O molecules, although direct hydrogen bonds are seen to form transiently. Analysis of the solvation structure before and after the proton transfer event using radial pair distribution functions and integrated number densities suggests that the trends in the pKa values correlate with the strength of the hydrogen bond and the average number of solvent molecules in the vicinity of the donor oxygen.

  2. Sensation and perception of sucrose and fat stimuli predict the reinforcing value of food.

    PubMed

    Panek-Scarborough, Leah M; Dewey, Amber M; Temple, Jennifer L

    2012-03-20

    Chronic overeating can lead to weight gain and obesity. Sensory system function may play a role in the types of foods people select and the amount of food people eat. Several studies have shown that the orosensory components of eating play a strong role in driving food intake and food selection. In addition, previous work has shown that motivation to get food, or the reinforcing value of food, is a predictor of energy intake. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that higher detection thresholds and lower suprathreshold intensity ratings of sweet and fat stimuli are associated with greater reinforcing value of food. In addition, we sought to determine if the sensory ratings of the stimuli would differ depending on whether they were expectorated or swallowed. The reinforcing value of food was measured by having participants perform operant responses for food on progressive ratio schedules of reinforcement. Taste detection thresholds and suprathresholds for solutions containing varied concentrations of sucrose and fat were also measured in two different Experiments. In Experiment 1, we found that sucrose, but not fat, detection predicted the reinforcing value of food with the reinforcing value of food increasing as sucrose detection threshold increased (indicating poorer detection). In Experiment 2, we found that lower suprathreshold ratings of expectorated fat and sucrose predicted greater reinforcing value of food. In addition, higher detection thresholds for fat stimuli (indicating poorer detection) were associated with greater reinforcing value of food. When taken together, these studies suggest that there is a relationship between taste detection and perception and reinforcing value of food and that these relationships vary based on whether the stimulus is swallowed or expectorated.

  3. Genome-wide protein localization prediction strategies for gram negative bacteria

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Genome-wide prediction of protein subcellular localization is an important type of evidence used for inferring protein function. While a variety of computational tools have been developed for this purpose, errors in the gene models and use of protein sorting signals that are not recognized by the more commonly accepted tools can diminish the accuracy of their output. Results As part of an effort to manually curate the annotations of 19 strains of Shewanella, numerous insights were gained regarding the use of computational tools and proteomics data to predict protein localization. Identification of the suite of secretion systems present in each strain at the start of the process made it possible to tailor-fit the subsequent localization prediction strategies to each strain for improved accuracy. Comparisons of the computational predictions among orthologous proteins revealed inconsistencies in the computational outputs, which could often be resolved by adjusting the gene models or ortholog group memberships. While proteomic data was useful for verifying start site predictions and post-translational proteolytic cleavage, care was needed to distinguish cellular versus sample processing-mediated cleavage events. Searches for lipoprotein signal peptides revealed that neither TatP nor LipoP are designed for identification of lipoprotein substrates of the twin arginine translocation system and that the +2 rule for lipoprotein sorting does not apply to this Genus. Analysis of the relationships between domain occurrence and protein localization prediction enabled identification of numerous location-informative domains which could then be used to refine or increase confidence in location predictions. This collective knowledge was used to develop a general strategy for predicting protein localization that could be adapted to other organisms. Conclusion Improved localization prediction accuracy is not simply a matter of developing better computational algorithms. It

  4. Threshold Values for Identification of Contamination Predicted by Reduced-Order Models

    DOE PAGES

    Last, George V.; Murray, Christopher J.; Bott, Yi-Ju; ...

    2014-12-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project is developing reduced-order models to evaluate potential impacts on underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) if CO2 or brine leaks from deep CO2 storage reservoirs. Threshold values, below which there would be no predicted impacts, were determined for portions of two aquifer systems. These threshold values were calculated using an interwell approach for determining background groundwater concentrations that is an adaptation of methods described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities.

  5. Poverty, household chaos, and interparental aggression predict children's ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions.

    PubMed

    Raver, C Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Garrett-Peters, Patricia

    2015-08-01

    The following prospective longitudinal study considers the ways that protracted exposure to verbal and physical aggression between parents may take a substantial toll on emotional adjustment for 1,025 children followed from 6 to 58 months of age. Exposure to chronic poverty from infancy to early childhood as well as multiple measures of household chaos were also included as predictors of children's ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions in order to disentangle the role of interparental conflict from the socioeconomic forces that sometimes accompany it. Analyses revealed that exposure to greater levels of interparental conflict, more chaos in the household, and a higher number of years in poverty can be empirically distinguished as key contributors to 58-month-olds' ability to recognize and modulate negative emotion. Implications for models of experiential canalization of emotional processes within the context of adversity are discussed.

  6. Decision-maker expectations and the value of climate prediction information: conceptual considerations and preliminary evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherrick, Bruce J.; Sonka, Steven T.; Lamb, Peter J.; Mazzocco, Michael A.

    2000-12-01

    This paper examines the commonly used assumption that decision-makers possess accurate prior probability information about climate events that affect their well-being, and illustrates the impact of that assumption on the valuation of prediction information. A survey of large producers in the Mid-western United States is used to recover their prior beliefs about climate variables. It is found that producers systematically misrepresent the probabilities of climate events that materially affect their well-being. In particular, the most common form of the miscalibration between actual and subjective probabilities is to overstate the likelihood of adverse events and understate the likelihood of favourable events. As a result, common methods for valuing prediction information are likely to understate the true value when recipients begin with less accurate prior beliefs.

  7. The significant prognostic value of circulating tumor cells in triple-negative breast cancer: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiong; Peng, Jing; Zhu, Yao-wu; Shen, Na

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical validity of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) is still controversial in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed to identify relevant articles in the PubMed, Web of Science, MEDLINE, and Embase databases through September 2015. The outcomes of interest were disease progression and overall survival. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were considered the effect indicators and were pooled in meta-analyses under a fixed- or random-effect model according to heterogeneity. Results Ten of the eligible studies were included for a total of 642 enrolled TNBC patients. Overall analyses revealed that the presence of CTCs predicted aggressive disease progression (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.59-2.99, Pheterogeneity = 0.010, I2 = 52.2%) and reduced overall survival (HR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.59-2.57, Pheterogeneity = 0.169, I2 = 26.6%). Further subgroup analyses demonstrated that CTC-positive patients also had poor disease progression and overall survival in different subsets, including cancer stage. Conclusion Our meta-analysis provides strong evidence that detection of CTC in the peripheral blood is an independent prognosticator of poor survival outcomes for TNBC patients. PMID:27008698

  8. Incremental value of hormonal therapy for deep vein thrombosis prediction: an adjusted Wells score for women.

    PubMed

    Barros, Márcio Vinícius Lins de; Arancibia, Ana Elisa Loyola; Costa, Ana Paula; Bueno, Fernando Brito; Martins, Marcela Aparecida Corrêa; Magalhães, Maria Cláudia; Silva, José Luiz Padilha; Bastos, Marcos de

    2016-04-01

    Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) management includes prediction rule evaluation to define standard pretest DVT probabilities in symptomatic patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incremental usefulness of hormonal therapy to the Wells prediction rules for DVT in women. We studied women undertaking compressive ultrasound scanning for suspected DVT. We adjusted the Wells score for DVT, taking into account the β-coefficients of the logistic regression model. Data discrimination was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The adjusted score calibration was assessed graphically and by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Reclassification tables and the net reclassification index were used for the adjusted score comparison with the Wells score for DVT. We observed 461 women including 103 DVT events. The mean age was 56 years (±21 years). The adjusted logistic regression model included hormonal therapy and six Wells prediction rules for DVT. The adjusted score weights ranged from -4 to 4. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a nonsignificant P value (0.69) and the calibration graph showed no differences between the expected and the observed values. The area under the ROC curve was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.95] for the adjusted model and 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.91) for the Wells score for DVT (Delong test, P value < 0.01). Net reclassification index for the adjusted score was 0.22 (95% CI 0.11-0.33, P value < 0.01). Our results suggest an incremental usefulness of hormonal therapy as an independent DVT prediction rule in women compared with the Wells score for DVT. The adjusted score must be evaluated in different populations before clinical use.

  9. Maximal aerobic capacity in ageing subjects: actual measurements versus predicted values.

    PubMed

    Pistea, Cristina; Lonsdorfer, Evelyne; Doutreleau, Stéphane; Oswald, Monique; Enache, Irina; Charloux, Anne

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the impact of selection of reference values on the categorisation of measured maximal oxygen consumption (V'O2peak) as "normal" or "abnormal" in an ageing population. We compared measured V'O2peak with predicted values and the lower limit of normal (LLN) calculated with five equations. 99 (58 males and 41 females) disease-free subjects aged ≥70 years completed an incremental maximal exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Mean V'O2peak was 1.88 L·min(-1) in men and 1.26 L·min(-1) in women. V'O2peak ranged from 89% to 108% of predicted in men, and from 88% to 164% of predicted in women, depending on the reference equation used. The proportion of subjects below the LLN ranged from 5% to 14% in men and 0-22% in women, depending on the reference equation. The LLN was lacking in one study, and was unsuitable for women in another. Most LLNs ranged between 53% and 73% of predicted. Therefore, choosing an 80% cut-off leads to overestimation of the proportion of "abnormal" subjects. To conclude, the proportion of subjects aged ≥70 years with a "low" V'O2peak differs markedly according to the chosen reference equations. In clinical practice, it is still relevant to test a sample of healthy volunteers and select the reference equations that better characterise this sample.

  10. Shunting normal pressure hydrocephalus: the predictive value of combined clinical and CT data.

    PubMed Central

    Vanneste, J; Augustijn, P; Tan, W F; Dirven, C

    1993-01-01

    The value of an ordinal global scale derived from combined clinical and CT data (clin/CT scale) to predict the clinical outcome in 112 patients shunted for presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was analysed. The clinical data were retrospectively collected, all CT scans were re-evaluated, and the clin/CT scale was determined blind to the results of further ancillary tests and to the post-surgical outcome. The scale ranked three classes of prediction: on the basis of clinical and CT characteristics, improvement after shunting was probable, possible, or improbable. The predictive value of the clin/CT scale for the subgroup of communicating NPH was established for two different strategies, depending on the strictness of selection criteria for shunting. In the subgroup of patients with presumed communicating NPH, the prevalence of shunt responsiveness was 29%; the best strategy was to shunt only patients with probable shunt-responsive NPH: the sensitivity was 0.54, the specificity 0.84, and the predictive accuracy 0.75, with a limited number of ineffective shunts (11%) and missed improvements (13%). The study illustrates its need to assess the pre-test probability of NPH based on combined clinical and CT data, before establishing the clinical usefulness of an ancillary test. PMID:8459240

  11. Belief about nicotine selectively modulates value and reward prediction error signals in smokers.

    PubMed

    Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Salas, Ramiro; Baldwin, Philip R; Soltani, Alireza; Kirk, Ulrich; Cinciripini, Paul M; Montague, P Read

    2015-02-24

    Little is known about how prior beliefs impact biophysically described processes in the presence of neuroactive drugs, which presents a profound challenge to the understanding of the mechanisms and treatments of addiction. We engineered smokers' prior beliefs about the presence of nicotine in a cigarette smoked before a functional magnetic resonance imaging session where subjects carried out a sequential choice task. Using a model-based approach, we show that smokers' beliefs about nicotine specifically modulated learning signals (value and reward prediction error) defined by a computational model of mesolimbic dopamine systems. Belief of "no nicotine in cigarette" (compared with "nicotine in cigarette") strongly diminished neural responses in the striatum to value and reward prediction errors and reduced the impact of both on smokers' choices. These effects of belief could not be explained by global changes in visual attention and were specific to value and reward prediction errors. Thus, by modulating the expression of computationally explicit signals important for valuation and choice, beliefs can override the physical presence of a potent neuroactive compound like nicotine. These selective effects of belief demonstrate that belief can modulate model-based parameters important for learning. The implications of these findings may be far ranging because belief-dependent effects on learning signals could impact a host of other behaviors in addiction as well as in other mental health problems.

  12. Predisaster Trait Anxiety and Negative Affect Predict Posttraumatic Stress in Youths after Hurricane Katrina

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weems, Carl F.; Pina, Armando A.; Costa, Natalie M.; Watts, Sarah E.; Taylor, Leslie K.; Cannon, Melinda F.

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of theory and previous research, it was hypothesized that predisaster child trait anxiety would predict disaster-related posttraumatic stress symptoms and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms, even after controlling for the number of hurricane exposure events. Results support this hypothesis and further indicate that predisaster…

  13. Integration and relative value of biomarkers for prediction of MCI to AD progression: spatial patterns of brain atrophy, cognitive scores, APOE genotype and CSF biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Da, Xiao; Toledo, Jon B; Zee, Jarcy; Wolk, David A; Xie, Sharon X; Ou, Yangming; Shacklett, Amanda; Parmpi, Paraskevi; Shaw, Leslie; Trojanowski, John Q; Davatzikos, Christos

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates the individual, as well as relative and joint value of indices obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of brain atrophy (quantified by the SPARE-AD index), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, APOE genotype, and cognitive performance (ADAS-Cog) in progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) within a variable follow-up period up to 6 years, using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative-1 (ADNI-1). SPARE-AD was first established as a highly sensitive and specific MRI-marker of AD vs. cognitively normal (CN) subjects (AUC = 0.98). Baseline predictive values of all aforementioned indices were then compared using survival analysis on 381 MCI subjects. SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog were found to have similar predictive value, and their combination was significantly better than their individual performance. APOE genotype did not significantly improve prediction, although the combination of SPARE-AD, ADAS-Cog and APOE ε4 provided the highest hazard ratio estimates of 17.8 (last vs. first quartile). In a subset of 192 MCI patients who also had CSF biomarkers, the addition of Aβ1-42, t-tau, and p-tau181p to the previous model did not improve predictive value significantly over SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog combined. Importantly, in amyloid-negative patients with MCI, SPARE-AD had high predictive power of clinical progression. Our findings suggest that SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog in combination offer the highest predictive power of conversion from MCI to AD, which is improved, albeit not significantly, by APOE genotype. The finding that SPARE-AD in amyloid-negative MCI patients was predictive of clinical progression is not expected under the amyloid hypothesis and merits further investigation.

  14. HDAC4, a prognostic and chromosomal instability marker, refines the predictive value of MGMT promoter methylation.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Wen; Li, Mingyang; Cai, Jinquan; Wang, Kuanyu; Zhang, Chuanbao; Bao, Zhaoshi; Liu, Yanwei; Wu, Anhua

    2015-04-01

    Chromosomal instability is a hallmark of human cancers and is closely linked to tumorigenesis. The prognostic value of molecular signatures of chromosomal instability (CIN) has been validated in various cancers. However, few studies have examined the relationship between CIN and glioma. Histone deacetylases (HDACs) regulate chromosome structure and are linked to the loss of genomic integrity in cancer cells. In this study, the prognostic value of HDAC4 expression and its association with markers of CIN were investigated by analyzing data from our own and four other large sample databases. The results showed that HDAC4 expression is downregulated in high- as compared to low-grade glioma and is associated with a favorable clinical outcome. HDAC4 expression and CIN were closely related in glioma from both functional and statistical standpoints. Moreover, the predictive value of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status-a widely used glioma marker-was refined by HDAC4 expression level, which was significantly related to CIN in our study. In conclusion, we propose that HDAC4 expression, a prognostic and CIN marker, enhances the predictive value of MGMT promoter methylation status for identifying patients who will most benefit from radiochemotherapy.

  15. Extreme Value Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall: A Case Study of Penang

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Husna; Wai Chung, Yeong

    2010-11-01

    This paper aims to study the suitability of modeling and predicting extreme rainfall events using only ten years of data. Fitting monthly and half-yearly maximum daily rainfall values to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and fitting rainfall values which exceed a certain threshold to the Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution are used. The parameters are estimated and the tests for stationarity and seasonality are performed. Result shows monthly and half-yearly maximum converges to the GEV distribution and declustering improves the fit to the GP distribution. Return levels estimated using monthly maximum is higher than half-yearly maximum, while return levels from GEV is higher than GP. The return level estimated shows rainfall amount will exceed the maximum rainfall observed in the ten years rainfall data in five years time.

  16. Repetitive negative thinking predicts depression and anxiety symptom improvement during brief cognitive behavioral therapy.

    PubMed

    Kertz, Sarah J; Koran, Jennifer; Stevens, Kimberly T; Björgvinsson, Thröstur

    2015-05-01

    Repetitive negative thinking (RNT) is a common symptom across depression and anxiety disorders and preliminary evidence suggests that decreases in rumination and worry are related to improvement in depression and anxiety symptoms. However, despite its prevalence, relatively little is known about transdiagnostic RNT and its temporal associations with symptom improvement during treatment. The current study was designed to examine the influence of RNT on subsequent depression and anxiety symptoms during treatment. Participants (n = 131; 52% female; 93% White; M = 34.76 years) were patients presenting for treatment in a brief, cognitive behavior therapy based, partial hospitalization program. Participants completed multiple assessments of depression (Center for the Epidemiological Studies of Depression-10 scale), anxiety (the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale), and repetitive negative thinking (Perseverative Thinking Questionnaire) over the course of treatment. Results indicated statistically significant between and within person effects of RNT on depression and anxiety, even after controlling for the effect of time, previous symptom levels, referral source, and treatment length. RNT explained 22% of the unexplained variability in depression scores and 15% of the unexplained variability in anxiety scores beyond that explained by the control variables. RNT may be an important transdiagnostic treatment target for anxiety and depression.

  17. Stable excited Au= and Pt= negative ions: A Regge-pole prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felfli, Z.; Msezane, A. Z.; Sokolovski, D.

    2010-03-01

    Electron elastic scattering from Au and Pt atoms is investigated in the energy region E < 4.0 eV in search of the possibility of forming and observing stable excited Au= and Pt= negative ions as Regge resonances. Total elastic cross sections (TCSs) and differential cross sections (DCSs) in both impact energy and scattering angle for the excited Au and Pt atoms are calculated. The investigation uses the recent Regge-pole methodology [1] wherein is embedded the vital electron-electron correlations together with a Thomas-Fermi type potential that incorporates the crucial core-polarization interaction, essential for the existence and stability of most negative ions. From the characteristic dramatically sharp resonances in the elastic total and Mulholland partial cross sections we identify excited Au= and Pt= anions and extract their binding energies (BEs). Ramsauer-Townsend minima and shape resonances are also determined. The DCSs also yield the BEs of the Au= and Pt= anions [2]. The TCSs for the excited and ground Au= and Pt= anions are contrasted as well; they provide a clue to the significant catalytic properties of their nanoparticles. [1] D. Sokolovski et al, Phys. Rev. A 76, 012705 (2007); [2] Z. Felfli et al, NIMB, At Press (2010). Supported by U.S. DOE, AFOSR and CAU CFNM, NSF-CREST Program

  18. Prognostic Model Based on Systemic Inflammatory Response and Clinicopathological Factors to Predict Outcome of Patients with Node-Negative Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jing-lei; Qu, Xiu-juan; Li, Zhi; Zhang, Jing-dong; Liu, Jing; Teng, Yue-e; Jin, Bo; Zhao, Ming-fang; Yu, Ping; Shi, Jing; Fu, Ling-Yu; Wang, Zhen-ning; Liu, Yun-peng

    2015-01-01

    predictive value of this model was validated in an independent set of 274 patients. This model, which included the systemic inflammatory markers and clinicopathological factors, is more effective in predicting the prognosis of node-negative gastric cancer than traditional staging systems. Patients in the high-risk group might be good candidates for adjuvant chemotherapy.

  19. Interaction between previous beliefs and cue predictive value in covariation-based causal induction.

    PubMed

    Catena, Andrés; Maldonado, Antonio; Perales, José C; Cándido, Antonio

    2008-06-01

    The main aim of this work was to show the impact of preexisting causal beliefs on causal induction from cause-effect co-occurrence information, when several cues compete with each other for predicting the same effect. Two different causal scenarios -- one social (a), the other medical (b) -- were used to check the generality of the effects. In Experiments 1a and 1b, participants were provided information on the co-occurrence of a two-cause compound and an effect, but not about the potential relationship between each cause by its own and the effect. As expected, prior beliefs -- induced by means of instructions -- strongly modulated the causal strength assigned to each element of the compound. In Experiments 2a and 2b, covariation evidence was provided, not only about the predictive value of the two-cause compound, but also about one of the elements of the compound. When this evidence was available, prior beliefs had less impact on judgments, and these were mostly guided by the relative predictive value of the cue. These results demonstrate the involvement of inferential integrative mechanisms in the generation of causal knowledge and show that single covariation detection mechanisms -- either rule-based or associative -- are insufficient to account for human causal judgment. At the same time, the fact that the power of new covariational evidence to change prior beliefs depended on the availability of information on the relative (conditional) predictive value of the target candidate cause suggests that causal knowledge derived from information on causal mechanisms and from covariation probably share a common representational basis.

  20. Prediction of chemical composition and peroxide value in unground pet foods by near-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    De Marchi, M; Righi, F; Meneghesso, M; Manfrin, D; Ricci, R

    2016-12-20

    The massive development of the pet food industry in recent years has lead to the formulation of hundreds of canine and feline complete extruded foods with the objective of meeting both the needs of the animals and numerous demands from pet owners. In the meantime, highly variable raw material compositions and the industry's new production techniques oblige manufacturers to monitor all phases of the extrusion process closely in order to ensure the targeted composition and quality of the products. This study aimed at evaluating the potential of infrared technology (visible and near-infrared spectrophotometer; 570-1842 nm) in predicting the chemical composition and peroxide value (PV) of unground commercial extruded dog foods. Six hundred and forty-nine commercial extruded dog foods were collected. For each product, an unground aliquot was analysed by infrared instrument while a second aliquot was sent to a laboratory for proximate analysis and PV quantification. The wide range of extruded dog food typologies included in the study was responsible for the wide variability observed within each nutritional trait, especially crude fibre and ash. The mean value of the 208 pet foods sampled for PV quantification was 17.49 mEq O2 /kg fat (min 2.2 and max 94.10 mEq O2 /kg fat). The coefficients of determination in cross-validation of NIRS prediction models were 0.77, 0.97, 0.83, 0.86, 0.78 and 0.94 for moisture, crude protein, crude fat, crude fibre, ash and nitrogen-free extract (NFE) respectively. PV prediction was less precise, as demonstrated by the coefficient of determination in cross-validation (0.66). The results demonstrated the potential of NIRS in predicting chemical composition in unground samples, with lower accuracy for moisture and ash, while PV prediction models suggest use for screening purposes only.

  1. Prediction of pKa values using the PM6 semiempirical method

    PubMed Central

    Kromann, Jimmy C.; Larsen, Frej; Moustafa, Hadeel

    2016-01-01

    The PM6 semiempirical method and the dispersion and hydrogen bond-corrected PM6-D3H+ method are used together with the SMD and COSMO continuum solvation models to predict pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, benzoic acids, carboxylic acids, and phenols using isodesmic reactions and compared to published ab initio results. The pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, and benzoic acids considered in this study can generally be predicted with PM6 and ab initio methods to within the same overall accuracy, with average mean absolute differences (MADs) of 0.6–0.7 pH units. For carboxylic acids, the accuracy (0.7–1.0 pH units) is also comparable to ab initio results if a single outlier is removed. For primary, secondary, and tertiary amines the accuracy is, respectively, similar (0.5–0.6), slightly worse (0.5–1.0), and worse (1.0–2.5), provided that di- and tri-ethylamine are used as reference molecules for secondary and tertiary amines. When applied to a drug-like molecule where an empirical pKa predictor exhibits a large (4.9 pH unit) error, we find that the errors for PM6-based predictions are roughly the same in magnitude but opposite in sign. As a result, most of the PM6-based methods predict the correct protonation state at physiological pH, while the empirical predictor does not. The computational cost is around 2–5 min per conformer per core processor, making PM6-based pKa prediction computationally efficient enough to be used for high-throughput screening using on the order of 100 core processors. PMID:27602298

  2. Predeliberation activity in prefrontal cortex and striatum and the prediction of subsequent value judgment

    PubMed Central

    Maoz, Uri; Rutishauser, Ueli; Kim, Soyoun; Cai, Xinying; Lee, Daeyeol; Koch, Christof

    2013-01-01

    Rational, value-based decision-making mandates selecting the option with highest subjective expected value after appropriate deliberation. We examined activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and striatum of monkeys deciding between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed ones. We previously found neurons that modulated their activity in this task according to the animal's choice, while it deliberated (choice neurons). Here we found neurons whose spiking activities were predictive of the spatial location of the selected target (spatial-bias neurons) or the size of the chosen reward (reward-bias neurons) before the onset of the cue presenting the decision-alternatives, and thus before rational deliberation could begin. Their predictive power increased as the values the animals associated with the two decision alternatives became more similar. The ventral striatum (VS) preferentially contained spatial-bias neurons; the caudate nucleus (CD) preferentially contained choice neurons. In contrast, the DLPFC contained significant numbers of all three neuron types, but choice neurons were not preferentially also bias neurons of either kind there, nor were spatial-bias neurons preferentially also choice neurons, and vice versa. We suggest a simple winner-take-all (WTA) circuit model to account for the dissociation of choice and bias neurons. The model reproduced our results and made additional predictions that were borne out empirically. Our data are compatible with the hypothesis that the DLPFC and striatum harbor dissociated neural populations that represent choices and predeliberation biases that are combined after cue onset; the bias neurons have a weaker effect on the ultimate decision than the choice neurons, so their influence is progressively apparent for trials where the values associated with the decision alternatives are increasingly similar. PMID:24324396

  3. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

    PubMed

    Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-10-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

  4. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice

    PubMed Central

    Towal, R. Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-01-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift–diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions. PMID:24019496

  5. Interest in Babies Negatively Predicts Testosterone Responses to Sexual Visual Stimuli Among Heterosexual Young Men.

    PubMed

    Zilioli, Samuele; Ponzi, Davide; Henry, Andrea; Kubicki, Konrad; Nickels, Nora; Wilson, M Claire; Maestripieri, Dario

    2016-01-01

    Men's testosterone may be an important physiological mechanism mediating motivational and behavioral aspects of the mating/parenting trade-off not only over time but also in terms of stable differences between mating-oriented and parenting-oriented individuals. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that self-reported interest in babies is inversely related to testosterone reactivity to cues of short-term mating among heterosexual young men. Among 100 participants, interest in babies was related to a slow life-history strategy, as assessed by the Mini-K questionnaire, and negatively related to testosterone responses to an erotic video. Interest in babies was not associated with baseline testosterone levels or with testosterone reactivity to nonsexual social stimuli. These results provide the first evidence that differential testosterone reactivity to sexual stimuli may be an important aspect of individual differences in life-history strategies among human males.

  6. Prediction of Genetic Values of Quantitative Traits in Plant Breeding Using Pedigree and Molecular Markers

    PubMed Central

    Crossa, José; Campos, Gustavo de los; Pérez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; Burgueño, Juan; Araus, José Luis; Makumbi, Dan; Singh, Ravi P.; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Yan, Jianbing; Arief, Vivi; Banziger, Marianne; Braun, Hans-Joachim

    2010-01-01

    The availability of dense molecular markers has made possible the use of genomic selection (GS) for plant breeding. However, the evaluation of models for GS in real plant populations is very limited. This article evaluates the performance of parametric and semiparametric models for GS using wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays) data in which different traits were measured in several environmental conditions. The findings, based on extensive cross-validations, indicate that models including marker information had higher predictive ability than pedigree-based models. In the wheat data set, and relative to a pedigree model, gains in predictive ability due to inclusion of markers ranged from 7.7 to 35.7%. Correlation between observed and predictive values in the maize data set achieved values up to 0.79. Estimates of marker effects were different across environmental conditions, indicating that genotype × environment interaction is an important component of genetic variability. These results indicate that GS in plant breeding can be an effective strategy for selecting among lines whose phenotypes have yet to be observed. PMID:20813882

  7. Progress in the prediction of pKa values in proteins

    SciTech Connect

    Alexov, Emil; Mehler, Ernest L.; Baker, Nathan A.; Baptista, Antonio; Huang, Yong; Milletti, Francesca; Nielsen, Jens E.; Farrell, Damien; Carstensen, Tommy; Olsson, Mats H.; Shen, Jana K.; Warwicker, Jim; Williams, Sarah; Word, J Michael

    2011-12-15

    The pKa-cooperative aims to provide a forum for experimental and theoretical researchers interested in protein pKa values and protein electrostatics in general. The first round of the pKa -cooperative, which challenged computational labs to carry out blind predictions against pKas experimentally determined in the laboratory of Bertrand Garcia-Moreno, was completed and results discussed at the Telluride meeting (July 6-10, 2009). This paper serves as an introduction to the reports submitted by the blind prediction participants that will be published in a special issue of PROTEINS: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics. Here we briefly outline existing approaches for pKa calculations, emphasizing methods that were used by the participants in calculating the blind pKa values in the first round of the cooperative. We then point out some of the difficulties encountered by the participating groups in making their blind predictions, and finally try to provide some insights for future developments aimed at improving the accuracy of pKa calculations.

  8. The predictive value of physical fitness for falls in older adults with intellectual disabilities.

    PubMed

    Oppewal, Alyt; Hilgenkamp, Thessa I M; van Wijck, Ruud; Schoufour, Josje D; Evenhuis, Heleen M

    2014-06-01

    A high incidence of falls is seen in people with intellectual disabilities (ID), along with poor balance, strength, muscular endurance, and slow gait speed, which are well-established risk factors for falls in the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of these physical fitness components for falls in 724 older adults with borderline to profound ID (≥ 50 years). Physical fitness was assessed at baseline and data on falls was collected at baseline and after three years. Gait speed was lowest in participants who fell three times or more at follow-up. Gait speed was the only physical fitness component that significantly predicted falls, but did not remain significant after correcting for confounders. Falls at baseline and not having Down syndrome were significant predictors for falls. Extremely low physical fitness levels of older adults with ID, possible strategies to compensate for these low levels, and the finding that falls did not increase with age may explain the limited predictive value of physical fitness found in this study.

  9. Stability and predictive value of anti-JCV antibody index in multiple sclerosis: A 6-year longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    Auer, Michael; Bsteh, Gabriel; Di Pauli, Franziska; Plavina, Tatiana; Walde, Janette; Deisenhammer, Florian; Berger, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Background Risk of natalizumab-related progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy is associated with the presence of anti-JC-virus (JCV) antibodies. Objective To investigate the longitudinal evolution of anti-JCV antibody index and to determine the predictive value of baseline anti-JCV antibody index for long-term stability of anti-JCV antibody status. Methods MS patients from the MS centre of Medical University of Innsbruck, who had serum sampling for a time period of 4–6 years at intervals of 6±3 months, were included in this retrospective, longitudinal study. Anti-JCV antibody serological status and index were determined by 2-step second-generation anti-JCV antibody assay. Results 154 patients were included in this study. Median follow-up time was 63.7 months, with median 11 samples available per patient. At baseline, 111 (72.1%) patients were anti-JCV antibody positive. Baseline anti-JCV antibody index significantly correlated with age (R = 0.22, p = 0.005); there was no difference with respect to sex, disease duration or previously used disease-modifying treatment. During follow-up anti-JCV antibody status changed from negative to positive or vice versa in 17% of patients. In seronegative patients at baseline, baseline anti-JCV antibody index was significantly lower in those remaining seronegative at follow-up compared to those converting to seropositivity (median 0.16 vs. 0.24, p = 0.002). In seropositive patients at baseline, index was higher in those remaining seropositive compared to those reverting to seronegativity (2.6 vs. 0.45, p<10−7). Baseline anti-JCV antibody index >0.90 predicted stable positive serostatus (sensitivity 88.7%, specificity 96.5%) and <0.20 stable negative serostatus (sensitivity 61.3%, specificity 97.6%). Conclusions Anti-JCV antibody index remained relatively stable over 6-year follow-up with annual serostatus change of ~3%. Baseline anti-JCV antibody index predicted stable negative and stable positive JCV serostatus. PMID

  10. Disorganization/Cognitive and Negative Symptom Dimensions in the At-Risk Mental State Predict Subsequent Transition to Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Demjaha, Arsime; Valmaggia, Lucia; Stahl, Daniel; Byrne, Majella; McGuire, Philip

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The at-risk mental state (ARMS) is associated with a very high risk of psychosis, but it is difficult to predict which individuals will later develop psychosis on the basis of their presenting symptoms. We investigated psychopathological dimensions in subjects with an ARMS and examined whether particular symptom dimensions predicted subsequent transition to psychosis. Method: The sample comprised 122 subjects (aged 16–35 years) meeting Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation clinic criteria for the ARMS recruited through Outreach and Support in South London, a clinical service for people with an ARMS. A principal axis factor analysis was performed on symptom scores, obtained at presentation from the Comprehensive Assessment of the At-Risk Mental State, using Varimax rotation. The relationship between dimension scores and transition to psychosis during the following 24 months was then examined employing Cox regression analysis. Results: Factor analysis gave rise to a 5-factor solution of negative, anxiety, disorganization/cognitive, self-harm, and manic symptom dimensions, accounting for 37% of the total variance. Scores on the negative and on the disorganization/cognitive dimensions were associated with transition to psychosis during the follow-up period (P = 0.044 and P = 0.005, respectively). Conclusion: The symptoms of the ARMS have a dimensional structure similar to that evident in patients with schizophrenia except for the positive symptom dimension. The association between scores on the disorganization/cognitive and negative dimensions and later transition is consistent with independent evidence that formal thought disorder, subjective cognitive impairments, and negative symptoms are linked to the subsequent onset of psychosis. PMID:20705805

  11. Predictive value of traction force measurement in vacuum extraction: Development of a multivariate prognostic model

    PubMed Central

    Pettersson, Kristina; Yousaf, Khurram; Ranstam, Jonas; Westgren, Magnus; Ajne, Gunilla

    2017-01-01

    Objective To enable early prediction of strong traction force vacuum extraction. Design Observational cohort. Setting Karolinska University Hospital delivery ward, tertiary unit. Population and sample size Term mid and low metal cup vacuum extraction deliveries June 2012—February 2015, n = 277. Methods Traction forces during vacuum extraction were collected prospectively using an intelligent handle. Levels of traction force were analysed pairwise by subjective category strong versus non-strong extraction, in order to define an objective predictive value for strong extraction. Statistical analysis A logistic regression model based on the shrinkage and selection method lasso was used to identify the predictive capacity of the different traction force variables. Predictors Total (time force integral, Newton minutes) and peak traction (Newton) force in the first to third pull; difference in traction force between the second and first pull, as well as the third and first pull respectively. Accumulated traction force at the second and third pull. Outcome Subjectively categorized extraction as strong versus non-strong. Results The prevalence of strong extraction was 26%. Prediction including the first and second pull: AUC 0,85 (CI 0,80–0,90); specificity 0,76; sensitivity 0,87; PPV 0,56; NPV 0,94. Prediction including the first to third pull: AUC 0,86 (CI 0,80–0,91); specificity 0,87; sensitivity 0,70; PPV 0,65; NPV 0,89. Conclusion Traction force measurement during vacuum extraction can help exclude strong category extraction from the second pull. From the third pull, two-thirds of strong extractions can be predicted. PMID:28257459

  12. Predictive value of upper lip bite test and ratio of height to thyromental distance compared to other multivariate airway assessment tests for difficult laryngoscopy in apparently normal patients

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Pratibha Jain; Dubey, Kamta Prasad; Yadav, Jai Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Background: Various anatomical measurements and non-invasive clinical tests, singly or in various combinations can be performed to predict difficult intubation. Recently introduced “Upper lip bite test” (ULBT) and “Ratio of height to Thyromental distance” (RHTMD) are claimed to have high predictability. We conducted a study to compare the Predictive Value of ULBT and RHTMD with Mouth opening (Inter-Incisor gap) (IIG), Modified Mallampatti Test (MMT), Head and neck movement (HNM) and Thyromental Distance (TMD) for Difficult Laryngoscopy. Materials and Methods: In this prospective, single blinded observational study, 480 adult patients of either sex, ASA grade I and II were assessed and graded for ULBT, RHTMD, TMD, MMT, IIG, and HNM according to standard methods and correlated with the Cormack and Lehane grade. Results: ULBT and RHTMD had highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio, i.e., 74.63%, 91.53%, 58.82%, 95.7%, 31.765 and 71.64%, 92.01%, 59.26%, 95.24%, 8.96 respectively, compared to TMD, MMT, IIG and HNM. Conclusions: ULBT is the best predictive test for difficult laryngoscopy in apparently normal patients but RHTMD can also be used as an acceptable alternative. PMID:23878440

  13. Signals in human striatum are appropriate for policy update rather than value prediction.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2011-04-06

    Influential reinforcement learning theories propose that prediction error signals in the brain's nigrostriatal system guide learning for trial-and-error decision-making. However, since different decision variables can be learned from quantitatively similar error signals, a critical question is: what is the content of decision representations trained by the error signals? We used fMRI to monitor neural activity in a two-armed bandit counterfactual decision task that provided human subjects with information about forgone and obtained monetary outcomes so as to dissociate teaching signals that update expected values for each action, versus signals that train relative preferences between actions (a policy). The reward probabilities of both choices varied independently from each other. This specific design allowed us to test whether subjects' choice behavior was guided by policy-based methods, which directly map states to advantageous actions, or value-based methods such as Q-learning, where choice policies are instead generated by learning an intermediate representation (reward expectancy). Behaviorally, we found human participants' choices were significantly influenced by obtained as well as forgone rewards from the previous trial. We also found subjects' blood oxygen level-dependent responses in striatum were modulated in opposite directions by the experienced and forgone rewards but not by reward expectancy. This neural pattern, as well as subjects' choice behavior, is consistent with a teaching signal for developing habits or relative action preferences, rather than prediction errors for updating separate action values.

  14. Prognostic and predictive value of EGFR in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Bossi, Paolo; Resteghini, Carlo; Paielli, Nicholas; Licitra, Lisa; Pilotti, Silvana; Perrone, Federica

    2016-01-01

    EGFR is an extensively studied biomarker in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). In this review, we discuss the prognostic and predictive role of EGFR in HNSCC, focusing on the different molecular alterations in specific treatment modalities such as radiotherapy alone (RT), combination of surgery, RT and chemotherapy (CT), EGFR inhibitors. We considered EGFR at different molecular levels: protein expression, protein activation, gene copy number, polymorphisms, mutation, EGFRvIII expression and EGFR ligand expression. Considering RT alone, evidence supports the predictive and prognostic role of high EGFR expression only when evaluated by quantitative assays: this may help select the patients who can mostly benefit from accelerated treatment. Conversely, no predictive biomarkers are available when treatment is a combination of surgery, CT and RT. For this combined treatment, several studies indicate that EGFR expression represents a good prognostic parameter only when measured by a “quantitative” or at least semi-quantitative method. With respect to EGFR inhibitors, neither EGFR expression nor increased gene copy number represent prognostic/predictive factors. If validated, nuclear EGFR, TGFα levels, EGFR phopshorylation and polymorphisms could represent additional prognostic factors in relation to combination of surgery, CT and RT, while EGFR polymorphisms and high amphiregulin levels could have prognostic value in patients treated with EGFR inhibitors. PMID:27556186

  15. Promoting breastfeeding in Bolivia: do social networks add to the predictive value of traditional socioeconomic characteristics?

    PubMed

    Fonseca-Becker, Fannie; Valente, Thomas W

    2006-03-01

    This study tested whether the prediction of health-related knowledge (correct breastfeeding practices in this case) could be improved by including information about the composition of an individual's personal network above and beyond that predicted by his/her socioeconomic or demographic characteristics. Few studies have tested the predictive value of social networks, especially for population-based studies, despite an increased use of social networks in the past few years in several fields of health research, especially in research relating to prevention of HIV/AIDS and design of HIV/AIDS programmes. Promotion of breastfeeding practices that enhance child survival is important in Bolivia because of high infant morbidity and mortality in the country. Data on a cross-sectional urban probability sample of 2,354 women and men aged 15-49 years were collected from seven urban areas in Bolivia. Model building and the log likelihood ratio criteria were used for assessing the significance of variables in a logistic model. Results showed that the network variables added significantly (p < 0.05 for knowledge of breastfeeding only with no other liquids and for knowledge of breastfeeding only with no solids p < 0.01) to the predictive power of the socioeconomic variables. These results may also hold for other health research areas, increasingly using social network analysis, such as that of HIV/AIDS.

  16. Assisted reproductive outcomes in women with different polycystic ovary syndrome phenotypes: the predictive value of anti-Müllerian hormone.

    PubMed

    Ramezanali, Fariba; Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Hemat, Mandana; Arabipoor, Arezoo; Jalali, Samaneh; Moini, Ashraf

    2016-05-01

    This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) outcomes in different polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) phenotypes (A, B, C and D) compared with a control group and the predictive values of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in PCOS phenotypes for main outcomes. This study evaluated 386 PCOS women and 350 patients with male factor infertility. Women with phenotypes A and C had significantly higher concentrations of AMH than those with phenotype B (P < 0.001). Clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) in the phenotype D group (53.3%) was higher than other groups (32.5%, 26.4% and 36.8%, respectively, in phenotypes A, B and C), but not to a significant level. Multivariable regression analysis, after adjusting for women's age and body mass index, revealed that PCOS phenotypes A and B were associated with a decreased CPR compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.46, confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.8, P = 0.007 and OR: 0.34, CI: 0.18-0.62, P = 0.001, respectively). It seems a combination of hyperandrogenism and chronic anovulation is associated with a negative impact on the CPR in these patients. These results demonstrated that AMH concentration is related to PCO morphology but not predictive for CPR and live birth rate.

  17. The Prostate Health Index adds predictive value to multi-parametric MRI in detecting significant prostate cancers in a repeat biopsy population

    PubMed Central

    Gnanapragasam, V. J.; Burling, K.; George, A.; Stearn, S.; Warren, A.; Barrett, T.; Koo, B.; Gallagher, F. A.; Doble, A.; Kastner, C.; Parker, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Both multi-parametric MRI (mpMRI) and the Prostate Health Index (PHI) have shown promise in predicting a positive biopsy in men with suspected prostate cancer. Here we investigated the value of combining both tests in men requiring a repeat biopsy. PHI scores were measured in men undergoing re-biopsy with an mpMRI image-guided transperineal approach (n = 279, 94 with negative mpMRIs). The PHI was assessed for ability to add value to mpMRI in predicting all or only significant cancers (Gleason ≥7). In this study adding PHI to mpMRI improved overall and significant cancer prediction (AUC 0.71 and 0.75) compared to mpMRI + PSA alone (AUC 0.64 and 0.69 respectively). At a threshold of ≥35, PHI + mpMRI demonstrated a NPV of 0.97 for excluding significant tumours. In mpMRI negative men, the PHI again improved prediction of significant cancers; AUC 0.76 vs 0.63 (mpMRI + PSA). Using a PHI≥35, only 1/21 significant cancers was missed and 31/73 (42%) men potentially spared a re-biopsy (NPV of 0.97, sensitivity 0.95). Decision curve analysis demonstrated clinically relevant utility of the PHI across threshold probabilities of 5–30%. In summary, the PHI adds predictive performance to image-guided detection of clinically significant cancers and has particular value in determining re-biopsy need in men with a negative mpMRI. PMID:27748407

  18. Phosphorylated eIF2α predicts disease-free survival in triple-negative breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Guo, Liang; Chi, Yayun; Xue, Jingyan; Ma, Linxiaoxi; Shao, Zhiming; Wu, Jiong

    2017-03-15

    Phosphorylated eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2α (p-eIF2α), which functions as a marker of endoplasmic reticulum stress, has been reported to be associated with patient prognosis in various cancers. However, little is known about the prognostic value of p-eIF2α in breast cancer, particularly in different breast cancer subtypes. An immunohistochemistry screen for p-eIF2α was performed using a tissue microarray containing 233 tumors and paired peritumoral tissues from female patients diagnosed with breast cancer. The staining results were scored semiquantitatively, and the p-eIF2α expression level in breast cancer and its potential prognostic value were investigated. In this retrospective cohort study, we found that p-eIF2α levels were significantly upregulated in breast cancer (P < 0.001). p-eIF2α level was negatively correlated with lymph node status (P = 0.039). Survival analysis by Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression showed that p-eIF2α level was correlated with better disease free survival (P = 0.026) and served as an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.046) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Our study revealed that p-eIF2α was upregulated in breast cancer and represented a novel predictor of prognosis in patients with triple-negative subtype.

  19. Phosphorylated eIF2α predicts disease-free survival in triple-negative breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Liang; Chi, Yayun; Xue, Jingyan; Ma, Linxiaoxi; Shao, Zhiming; Wu, Jiong

    2017-01-01

    Phosphorylated eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2α (p-eIF2α), which functions as a marker of endoplasmic reticulum stress, has been reported to be associated with patient prognosis in various cancers. However, little is known about the prognostic value of p-eIF2α in breast cancer, particularly in different breast cancer subtypes. An immunohistochemistry screen for p-eIF2α was performed using a tissue microarray containing 233 tumors and paired peritumoral tissues from female patients diagnosed with breast cancer. The staining results were scored semiquantitatively, and the p-eIF2α expression level in breast cancer and its potential prognostic value were investigated. In this retrospective cohort study, we found that p-eIF2α levels were significantly upregulated in breast cancer (P < 0.001). p-eIF2α level was negatively correlated with lymph node status (P = 0.039). Survival analysis by Kaplan–Meier estimation and Cox regression showed that p-eIF2α level was correlated with better disease free survival (P = 0.026) and served as an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.046) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Our study revealed that p-eIF2α was upregulated in breast cancer and represented a novel predictor of prognosis in patients with triple-negative subtype. PMID:28294178

  20. 119Sn Mössbauer parameters as predictive tool for future Sn-based negative electrode materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naille, S.; Jumas, J.-C.; Lippens, P.-E.; Olivier-Fourcade, J.

    Thanks to the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters, it is possible to analyze and predict Li reaction mechanisms with Sn-based negative electrodes for Li-ion batteries. The present approach is based on the interpretation of the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters: isomer shift (δ) and quadrupole splitting (Δ) by considering: (i) the analysis of the 119Sn Mössbauer hyperfine parameters of the Li-Sn alloys used as model compounds, (ii) their interpretation from some physicochemical parameters (Li/Sn ratio, crystal structure, electronic density as defined by Hume-Rothery), and (iii) the proposition of an experimental based model to understand Li lithiation/delithiation mechanisms and predict electrochemical performances for Sn-based compounds including the effects of volume variations, particle coalescence or SEI formation.

  1. Qualities of Peer Relations on Social Networking Websites: Predictions from Negative Mother-Teen Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Szwedo, David E.; Mikami, Amori Yee; Allen, Joseph P.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined associations between characteristics of teenagers’ relationships with their mothers and their later socializing behavior and peer relationship quality online. At age 13, teenagers and their mothers participated in an interaction in which mothers’ and adolescents’ behavior undermining autonomy and relatedness was observed, and indicators of teens’ depressive symptoms and social anxiety were assessed. At age 20, youth self-reported on their online behaviors, youths’ social networking webpages were observationally coded to assess peer relationship quality online, and symptoms of depression and social anxiety were reassessed. Results suggested that problematic mother-teen relationships were predictive of youths’ later preference for online communication and greater likelihood of forming a friendship with someone met online, yet poorer quality in online relationships. Findings are discussed within a developmental framework suggesting the importance of considering youths’ family interactions during early adolescence as predictors of future online socializing behavior and online interactions with peers. PMID:21860584

  2. Can exaggerated stress reactivity and prolonged recovery predict negative health outcomes? The case of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Lovallo, William R

    2015-04-01

    Researchers and laypersons have long argued that stress is bad for health, particularly when responses are large, prolonged, and frequent. By extension, individuals who have the largest and the most prolonged responses are assumed to have worse outcomes than do less reactive persons. Research in animals has been supportive of the connection between stress and poor health, but evidence in humans has been slow to accumulate. The current issue of Psychosomatic Medicine presents a meta-analysis of 33 studies of delayed recovery from stress and its association with poor cardiovascular disease outcomes and all-cause mortality. The analysis supports the contention that slower recovery to baseline after exercise or psychological stress may predict earlier death due to all causes. This finding raises questions for psychosomatic theories of disease and points the direction for further study of how or whether to incorporate reactivity measures into standard risk profiles.

  3. End-Systolic Elastance and Ventricular-Arterial Coupling Reserve Predict Cardiac Events in Patients with Negative Stress Echocardiography

    PubMed Central

    Bombardini, Tonino; Costantino, Marco Fabio; Sicari, Rosa; Ciampi, Quirino; Pratali, Lorenza; Picano, Eugenio

    2013-01-01

    Background. A maximal negative stress echo identifies a low-risk subset for coronary events. However, the potentially prognostically relevant information on cardiovascular hemodynamics for heart-failure-related events is unsettled. Aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of stress-induced variation in cardiovascular hemodynamics in patients with negative stress echocardiography. Methods. We enrolled 891 patients (593 males mean age 63 ± 12, ejection fraction 48 ± 17%), with negative (exercise 172, dipyridamole 482, and dobutamine 237) stress echocardiography result. During stress we assessed left ventricular end-systolic elastance index (ELVI), ventricular arterial coupling (VAC) indexed by the ratio of the ELVI to arterial elastance index (EaI), systemic vascular resistance (SVR), and pressure-volume area (PVA). Changes from rest to peak stress (reserve) were tested as predictors of main outcome measures: combined death and heart failure hospitalization. Results. During a median followup of 19 months (interquartile range 8–36), 50 deaths and 84 hospitalization occurred. Receiver-operating-characteristic curves identified as best predictors ELVI reserve for exercise (AUC = 0.871) and dobutamine (AUC = 0.848) and VAC reserve (AUC = 0.696) for dipyridamole. Conclusions. Patients with negative stress echocardiography may experience an adverse outcome, which can be identified by assessment of ELVI reserve and VAC reserve during stress echo. PMID:24024185

  4. Maximal aerobic capacity in ageing subjects: actual measurements versus predicted values

    PubMed Central

    Pistea, Cristina; Lonsdorfer, Evelyne; Doutreleau, Stéphane; Oswald, Monique; Enache, Irina

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the impact of selection of reference values on the categorisation of measured maximal oxygen consumption (V′O2peak) as “normal” or “abnormal” in an ageing population. We compared measured V′O2peak with predicted values and the lower limit of normal (LLN) calculated with five equations. 99 (58 males and 41 females) disease-free subjects aged ≥70 years completed an incremental maximal exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Mean V′O2peak was 1.88 L·min−1 in men and 1.26 L·min−1 in women. V′O2peak ranged from 89% to 108% of predicted in men, and from 88% to 164% of predicted in women, depending on the reference equation used. The proportion of subjects below the LLN ranged from 5% to 14% in men and 0–22% in women, depending on the reference equation. The LLN was lacking in one study, and was unsuitable for women in another. Most LLNs ranged between 53% and 73% of predicted. Therefore, choosing an 80% cut-off leads to overestimation of the proportion of “abnormal” subjects. To conclude, the proportion of subjects aged ≥70 years with a “low” V′O2peak differs markedly according to the chosen reference equations. In clinical practice, it is still relevant to test a sample of healthy volunteers and select the reference equations that better characterise this sample. PMID:27730176

  5. The Predictive Value of the EWGSOP Definition of Sarcopenia: Results From the InCHIANTI Study

    PubMed Central

    Bianchi, Lara; Ferrucci, Luigi; Cherubini, Antonio; Maggio, Marcello; Bandinelli, Stefania; Savino, Elisabetta; Brombo, Gloria; Zuliani, Giovanni; Guralnik, Jack M.; Landi, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Background. Sarcopenia is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes in older people. Aim of the study was to explore the predictive value of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP) diagnostic algorithm in terms of disability, hospitalization, and mortality and analyze the specific role of grip strength and walking speed as diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia. Methods. Longitudinal analysis of 538 participants enrolled in the InCHIANTI study. Sarcopenia was defined as having low muscle mass plus low grip strength or low gait speed (EWGSOP criteria). Muscle mass was assessed using bioimpedance analysis. Cox proportional and logistic regression models were used to assess risk of death, hospitalization, and disability for sarcopenic people and to investigate the individual contributions of grip strength and walking speed to the predictive value of the EWGSOP’s algorithm. Results. Prevalence of EWGSOP-defined sarcopenia at baseline was 10.2%. After adjusting for potential confounders, sarcopenia was associated with disability (odds ratio 3.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41–7.05), hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR] 1.57; 95% CI 1.03–2.41), and mortality (HR 1.88; 95% CI 0.91–3.91). The association between an alternative sarcopenic phenotype, defined only by the presence of low muscle mass and low grip strength, and both disability and mortality were similar to the association with the phenotypes defined by low muscle mass and low walking speed or by the EWGSOP algorithm. Conclusions. The EWGSOP’s phenotype is a good predictor of incident disability, hospitalization and death. Assessment of only muscle weakness, in addition to low muscle mass, provided similar predictive value as compared to the original algorithm. PMID:26333772

  6. Influence of freestream values on k-omega turbulence model predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menter, F. R.

    1992-01-01

    The Wilcox (1988, 1991) k-omega model for eddy-viscosity turbulence does not require damping functions in the viscous sublayer, and its equations are less stiff near the wall. It has been designed to predict the requisite wake length in equilibrium, adverse pressure-gradient boundary-layer flows. When applied to free shear layers, however, a strong dependency of its results on the freestream value of omega has been noted. This feature is presently investigated via the self-similar equations for incompressible equilibrium boundary layers.

  7. Does race predict stroke readmission? An analysis using the truncated negative binomial model.

    PubMed Central

    Kennedy, Byron S.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although it is known that the risk of first-ever stroke is higher for blacks than for whites, it is unclear what their relative risk is for stroke recurrence. METHODS: Using statewide inpatient data from California, 4,784 blacks and 33,684 whites having one or more stroke admissions during the year 2000 were identified. For blacks and whites, age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for the index stroke admission using direct standardization (to the U.S. resident population for the year 2000). Various statistical models for count data were applied, with the best one being used in subsequent age-specific multivariate analyses for the number of stroke admissions. RESULTS: For the index stroke admission, the age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate per 100,000 was 366 (95% CI 355-377) for blacks and 204 (95% CI 202-207) for whites. Those having two or more stroke admissions accounted for less than 20% of the total number of patients. The truncated negative binomial (TNB) model gave the best fit not only to the California data but also to the data reanalyzed from several prior studies done in various countries [i.e., the United Kingdom (Oxfordshire and South London), Switzerland (Lausanne). Australia (Western Australia) and the United States (Nueces County, TX)]. In this study, predictors of stroke readmission changed according to age. For those aged 65-74 years old, blacks showed a higher risk of readmission than whites by 40% after adjustment for patient and hospital factors (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.19-1.64). This excess risk was lower in other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that blacks remain a high-risk group after an initial stroke and warrant appropriate intervention. Future studies on recurrent stroke should consider age-specific TNB models. PMID:15926648

  8. Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? - Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Xiong, Wei; Li, Xinjie

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the predictive ability of the singular value decomposition entropy for the Shenzhen Component Index based on different scales. It is found that, the predictive ability of the entropy for the index is affected by the width of moving time windows and the structural break in stock market. By moving time windows with one year, the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy of Shenzhen stock market for its component index is found after the reform of non-tradable shares.

  9. Assessing value of innovative molecular diagnostic tests in the concept of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.

    PubMed

    Akhmetov, Ildar; Bubnov, Rostyslav V

    2015-01-01

    Molecular diagnostic tests drive the scientific and technological uplift in the field of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine offering invaluable clinical and socioeconomic benefits to the key stakeholders. Although the results of diagnostic tests are immensely influential, molecular diagnostic tests (MDx) are still grudgingly reimbursed by payers and amount for less than 5 % of the overall healthcare costs. This paper aims at defining the value of molecular diagnostic test and outlining the most important components of "value" from miscellaneous assessment frameworks, which go beyond accuracy and feasibility and impact the clinical adoption, informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. The authors suggest that the industry should facilitate discussions with various stakeholders throughout the entire assessment process in order to arrive at a consensus about the depth of evidence required for positive marketing authorization or reimbursement decisions. In light of the evolving "value-based healthcare" delivery practices, it is also recommended to account for social and ethical parameters of value, since these are anticipated to become as critical for reimbursement decisions and test acceptance as economic and clinical criteria.

  10. Heating value prediction for combustible fraction of municipal solid waste in Semarang using backpropagation neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khuriati, Ainie; Setiabudi, Wahyu; Nur, Muhammad; Istadi, Istadi

    2015-12-01

    Backpropgation neural network was trained to predict of combustible fraction heating value of MSW from the physical composition. Waste-to-Energy (WtE) is a viable option for municipal solid waste (MSW) management. The influence of the heating value of municipal solid waste (MSW) is very important on the implementation of WtE systems. As MSW is heterogeneous material, direct heating value measurements are often not feasible. In this study an empirical model was developed to describe the heating value of the combustible fraction of municipal solid waste as a function of its physical composition of MSW using backpropagation neural network. Sampling process was carried out at Jatibarang landfill. The weight of each sorting sample taken from each discharged MSW vehicle load is 100 kg. The MSW physical components were grouped into paper wastes, absorbent hygiene product waste, styrofoam waste, HD plastic waste, plastic waste, rubber waste, textile waste, wood waste, yard wastes, kitchen waste, coco waste, and miscellaneous combustible waste. Network was trained by 24 datasets with 1200, 769, and 210 epochs. The results of this analysis showed that the correlation from the physical composition is better than multiple regression method .

  11. Expression and prognostic value of estrogen receptor β in patients with triple-negative and triple-positive breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Guo, Liying; Zhu, Qianwen; Aisimutuola, Mulati; Yilamu, Dilimina; Liu, Sha; Jakulin, Adina

    2015-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the expression of estrogen receptor β (ERβ) in triple-negative and triple-positive breast cancer patients, and evaluate its utility as a prognostic factor. Between January 2000 and December 2010, primary tumor tissue samples were collected from 234 subjects, including 107 triple-negative and 127 triple-positive breast cancer patients. The samples were embedded in paraffin and immunohistochemical staining was conducted to determine the expression levels of ERβ. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze patient survival rates. ERβ expression was observed in 38/107 patients (35.5%) with triple-negative breast cancer and 63/127 patients (49.6%) with triple-positive breast cancer. The ERβ expression rate was significantly decreased in the patients with triple-negative breast cancer, as compared with those with triple-positive breast cancer (P=0.03). Analysis of the survival rates indicated that patients with triple-negative breast cancer and positive ERβ expression exhibited poor disease progression-free survival (DFS) compared with those with negative ERβ expression (P=0.021). However, no statistically significant difference was observed in the DFS between the triple-positive breast cancer patients with positive and negative ERβ expression. Therefore, the expression of ERβ varies between triple-negative and triple-positive breast cancer patients. In addition, positive expression of ERβ indicates a poor prognosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients; however, this is not the case for triple-positive breast cancer patients.

  12. Cut-off value of red-blood-cell-bound IgG for the diagnosis of Coombs-negative autoimmune hemolytic anemia.

    PubMed

    Kamesaki, Toyomi; Oyamada, Takashi; Omine, Mitsuhiro; Ozawa, Keiya; Kajii, Eiji

    2009-02-01

    Direct antiglobulin test (DAT)-negative autoimmune hemolytic anemia (Coombs-negative AIHA) is characterized by laboratory evidence of in vivo hemolysis, together with a negative DAT performed by conventional tube technique (CTT) in clinically suspected AIHA patients. The immunoradiometric assay (IRMA) for red-blood-cell-bound immunoglobulin G (RBC-IgG) can be used to diagnose patients in whom CTT does not detect low levels of red cell autoantibodies. We investigated the diagnostic cutoff value of the IRMA for RBC-IgG in Coombs-negative AIHA and calculated its sensitivity and specificity. Of the 140 patients with negative DAT by CTT referred to our laboratory with undiagnosed hemolytic anemia, AIHA was clinically diagnosed in 64 patients (Coombs-negative AIHA). The numbers of Coombs-negative AIHA and non-AIHA patients changed with age and gender. The cutoff values were determined from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve according to age and gender. The IRMA for RBC-IgG proved to be sensitive (71.4%) and specific (87.8%) when using these cutoffs. Using these cutoffs for 41 patients with negative DAT referred to our laboratory in 2006, all the pseudonegative cases were treated with steroids before the test. The 31 untreated cases could be grouped using one cutoff value of 78.5 and showed 100% sensitivity and 94% specificity, independent of gender and age. Results indicate that RBC-IgG could become a standard approach for the diagnosis of Coombs-negative AIHA, when measured before treatment.

  13. A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  14. A CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product development.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment.

  15. Predictive value of attitude, cognitive ability, and personality to science achievement in the middle school

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Dale R.

    This article examines the factors of attitude toward science, spatial ability, mathematical ability, and the scientific personality, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, in a sample of middle school students. Males and females with science grades of A and B were found to have several characteristics of the scientific personality, good grades in mathematics, but negative attitudes toward science. Males and females with science grades of C and D had a more positive attitude toward science, but poor mathematical and spatial abilities and few characteristics of the scientific personality. There were no sex differences except on the Thinking/Feeling (TF) scale of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. As expected females portrayed themselves as preferring the (F) scale, the use of personal values when making decisions and males portrayed themselves as preferring the (T) scale, the use of logical analysis when making decisions.

  16. Haematological characteristics predicting susceptibility for ascites. 2. High haematocrit values in juvenile chickens.

    PubMed

    Scheele, C W; van Der Klis, J D; Kwakernaak, C; Buys, N; Decuypere, E

    2003-07-01

    values) at week 5. This is consistent with a higher ascites mortality in flock A than in flock B, over the whole period up to 6 weeks. Until 4 weeks both A and B were similar with respect to mean Ht values of High Ht and Low Ht groups. After 4 weeks Ht values were very high in the High Ht birds of stock A, possibly as a result of the susceptibility for ascites of stock A. There was a significant interaction between stock and Ht values on the ascites-related variable arterial pressure index. Only in stock A was high arterial pressure at 5 weeks related to high Ht values at d 12. 6. Overall it was concluded that a high Ht in blood of juvenile chickens has limited practical value in predicting incidence of ascites at 5 weeks of age.

  17. High positive predictive value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples for the diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infection in intensive care neonates.

    PubMed

    Deleers, M; Dodémont, M; Van Overmeire, B; Hennequin, Y; Vermeylen, D; Roisin, S; Denis, O

    2016-04-01

    Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) remain a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections in preterm infants. Rapid and accurate methods for the diagnosis of CRBSIs are needed in order to implement timely and appropriate treatment. A retrospective study was conducted during a 7-year period (2005-2012) in the neonatal intensive care unit of the University Hospital Erasme to assess the value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples (CDBS) to predict CRBSIs. Both peripheral samples and CDBS were obtained from neonates with clinically suspected CRBSI. Gram stain, automated culture and quantitative cultures on blood agar plates were performed for each sample. The paired quantitative blood culture was used as the standard to define CRBSI. Out of 397 episodes of suspected CRBSIs, 35 were confirmed by a positive ratio of quantitative culture (>5) or a colony count of CDBS culture >100 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL. All but two of the 30 patients who had a CDBS with a positive Gram stain were confirmed as having a CRBSI. Seven patients who had a CDBS with a negative Gram stain were diagnosed as CRBSI. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of Gram stain on CDBS were 80, 99.4, 93.3 and 98.1 %, respectively. Gram staining on CDBS is a viable method for rapidly (<1 h) detecting CRBSI without catheter withdrawal.

  18. Predictive value of early brain atrophy on response in patients treated with interferon β

    PubMed Central

    Pérez-Miralles, Francisco Carlos; Vidal-Jordana, Angela; Río, Jordi; Auger, Cristina; Pareto, Deborah; Tintoré, Mar; Rovira, Alex; Montalban, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the association between brain volume loss during the first year of interferon treatment and clinical outcome at 4 years. Methods: Patients with multiple sclerosis initiating interferon β were clinically evaluated every 6 months for the presence of relapses and assessment of global disability using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). MRI scans were performed at baseline and after 12 months, and the percentage of brain volume change (PBVC), brain parenchymal volume change (BPVc%), gray matter volume change (GMVc%), and white matter volume change (WMVc%) were estimated. Patients were divided based on the cutoff values for predicting confirmed EDSS worsening obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis for all atrophy measurements. Survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression to predict disability worsening at last observation were applied, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and radiologic variables. Results: Larger PBVC and WMVc% decreases were observed in patients with disability worsening at 4 years of follow-up, whereas no differences were found in BPVc% or GMVc%. Cutoff points were obtained for PBVC (−0.86%; sensitivity 65.5%, specificity 71.4%) and WMVc% (−2.49%; sensitivity 85.3%, specificity 43.8%). Patients with decreases of PBVC and WMVc% below cutoff values were more prone to develop disability worsening (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.875, p = 0.005; HR 4.246, p = 0.004, respectively). PBVC (HR 4.751, p = 0.008) and the interaction of new T2 lesions with WMVc% (HR 1.086, p = 0.005) were found to be independent predictors of disability worsening in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions: At the patient level, whole-brain and white matter volume changes in the first year of interferon β therapy are predictive of subsequent clinical evolution under treatment. PMID:26185778

  19. Predictive value of signs and symptoms in the diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage among stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Talavera, J O; Wacher, N H; Laredo, F; Halabe, J; Rosales, V; Madrazo, I; Lifshitz, A

    1996-01-01

    Clinical diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is frequently misdiagnosed with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or cerebral infarction (CI), which delays appropriate referral. This study was undertaken to create a clinical index to select, among stroke patients, those with the highest probability of having a SAH. Clinical data of patients with acute stroke were evaluated with the X2 and the Fisher exact test; a p value < 0.05 was considered significant. Significant variables were included in a "log-lineal regression analysis" where those with an odds ratio (OR) 95% confidence limits not including the unit were considered to construct an index using the odds ratio coefficient (C). The results indicated that of 197 records which were included, 22 cases of SAH and 175 of ICH or CI were demonstrated. Kappa coefficients for observer variation in clinical data retrieval was 0.91. After "log-lineal regression analysis" was carried out the following variables were significant: neck stiffness (C = 3, OR = 21); lack of focal neurologic signs (C = 2, OR = 6.88); and age < or = 60 years (C = 1.5, OR = 4.35). A fourth variable, seizures (C = 1, OR = 3.25), was marginally significant (p = 0.07), but added predictive value to the index. The positive predictive values of the sum of the coefficients were: 0 = 0%; 1-2 = 3%; 2.5-3.5 = 21%; 4-5 = 40%; 6.5 = 75%; 7.5 = 100%. In conclusion, when a stroke patient shows neck stiffness, or any combination of young age, lack of focal neurologic signs or seizures (a score > or = 2.5, the index has a 91% sensitivity and 82% specificity), he/she must be referred to a tertiary care center.

  20. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT after two cycles of neoadjuvant therapy may predict response in HER2-negative, but not in HER2-positive breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Jingyi; Wang, Yujie; Mo, Miao; Bao, Xiao; Zhang, Yingjian; Liu, Guangyu; Zhang, Jun; Geng, Daoying

    2015-10-06

    The aim of this prospective study was to assess the ability of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scanning to predict pathological complete response (pCR) in breast cancer, and to investigate whether timing of the scan and trastuzumab treatment influence the accuracy of pCR prediction in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive breast cancer patients. We treated 81 locally advanced breast cancer patients with four cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). HER2-negative breast cancer patients received NAC alone, while HER2-positive breast cancer patients received NAC plus trastuzumab. (18)FDG PET/CT scans were scheduled at baseline and after the second cycle of NAC. Axillary lymph node (ALN) dissection was performed after the last cycle of neoadjuvant therapy. Relative changes in standardized uptake values (SUV) between the two PET/CT scans (ΔSUV) in primary tumors and ALN metastases were calculated. There were 75 patients with 150 PET/CT scans in the final analysis, including 41 HER2-negative and 34 HER2-positive cases. In the HER2-negative group, the ΔSUV predicted overall and ALN pCR; the receiver operating characteristics-areas under curve (ROC-AUC) were 0.87 and 0.80 (P = 0.0014 and 0.031, respectively) and the negative predictive values were 94% and 89% respectively. However, in the HER2-positive group, ΔSUV could predict neither overall nor ALN pCR; the ROC-AUCs were only 0.56 and 0.53, with P = 0.53 and 0.84, respectively. Hence, the ΔSUV after two cycles of neoadjuvant therapy could predict pCR in HER2-negative patients treated with NAC alone, but not in HER2-positive patients treated with NAC plus trastuzumab.

  1. Prediction of normal values for lactate threshold estimated by gas exchange in men and women.

    PubMed

    Davis, J A; Storer, T W; Caiozzo, V J

    1997-01-01

    Lactate threshold (LT) is an index of exercise capacity and can be estimated from the gas exchange consequences of a metabolic acidosis (LT(GE)). In recent years, it has emerged as a diagnostic tool in the evaluation of subjects with exercise limitation. The purpose of this study was to develop LT(GE) prediction equations on a relatively large sample of adults and to cross-validate each equation. A total of 204 healthy, sedentary, nonsmoking subjects (103 men and 101 women), aged 20-70 years, underwent graded exercise testing on a cycle ergometer. The V-slope technique was used to detect LTGE as the oxygen uptake (VO2) at the breakpoint of the carbon dioxide output versus VO2 relationship. Multiple linear regression was used to develop 12 equations with combinations of the following predictor variables: age, height, body mass, and fat-free mass. Eight of the equations are gender-specific and four are generalized with gender as a dummy variable. The equations were cross-validated using the predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) method. The results demonstrate that the equations had relatively high multiple correlations (0.577-0.863) and low standard errors of the estimate (0.123-0.228 1 x min(-1)). The PRESS method demonstrated that the equations are generalizable, i.e., can be used in future studies without a significant loss of accuracy. Since we tested only healthy, sedentary subjects, our equations can be used to predict the lower limit of normal for a given subject. Using individual data for healthy and diseased subjects from the literature, we found that our gender-specific equations rarely miscategorized subjects unless they were obese and mass was a predictor variable. We conclude that our equations provide accurate predictions of normal values for LT(GE) and that they are generalizable to other subject populations.

  2. Predicting effective caloric value of nonnutritive factors: I. Pellet quality and II. Prediction of consequential formulation dead zones.

    PubMed

    McKinney, L J; Teeter, R G

    2004-07-01

    Two experiments were conducted with male broilers to 1) establish a methodology for predicting effective caloric value (ECV), defined as dietary caloric density (CD) necessary for broilers to achieve specific BW and feed conversion ratio (FCR) combinations under standardized conditions and 2) quantify the ECV attributable to pellet quality (PQ), defined as the pellet to pellet fines ratio in the feeder. In experiment 1, chicks were reared to 56 d on diets varying in CD. Dietary caloric densities examined ranged from 2,650 to 3,250 kcal of MEn/kg. Pen BW, feed intake, and FCR were measured at 21, 42, and 56 d. On 42 and 56 d, carcass traits were measured. Increasing CD significantly enhanced BW, energy consumption, and FCR. Feed intake remained similar across the upper 3 CD treatments to 42 d. By d 56, feed consumption tended to decline as CD increased. Increasing CD beyond 3,066 kcal of MEn/kg diet did not increase lean tissue accretion, while fat deposition rose disproportionately. Experiment 1 results enabled development of equations whereby CD, hence ECV, might be predicted using BW and FCR. In experiment 2, 38-d-old broilers were used to evaluate PQ effects on growth, feed intake, FCR, and behavior in a 7-d FCR assay. The BW gain and FCR were significantly enhanced by pelleting and were positively correlated with PQ. Feed intake was not affected by PQ. The experiment 1 model was validated for experiment 2, as it closely estimated the CD for diets of similar PQ used in experiment 1. Results suggest pelleting contributes 187 kcal/kg of diet at 100% PQ and that the ECV declines curvilinearly as PQ falls. Birds were observed eating less and resting more as PQ increased, suggesting that ECV of pelleting is mediated by energy expenditure for activity. These studies provide a method for estimating ECV of nonnutritive factors that impact BW, FCR, or both. Further, the application reveals potential for creation of formulation "dead zones" whereby dietary changes to

  3. Predictive significance of DNA damage and repair biomarkers in triple-negative breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: An exploratory analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ercolani, Cristiana; Pizzuti, Laura; Lauro, Luigi Di; Sergi, Domenico; Sperati, Francesca; Terrenato, Irene; Dattilo, Rosanna; Botti, Claudio; Fabi, Alessandra; Ramieri, Maria Teresa; Mentuccia, Lucia; Marinelli, Camilla; Iezzi, Laura; Gamucci, Teresa; Natoli, Clara; Vitale, Ilio; Barba, Maddalena; Mottolese, Marcella; De Maria, Ruggero; Maugeri-Saccà, Marcello

    2015-01-01

    Response of cancer cells to chemotherapy-induced DNA damage is regulated by the ATM-Chk2 and ATR-Chk1 pathways. We investigated the association between phosphorylated H2AX (γ-H2AX), a marker of DNA double-strand breaks that trigger the ATM-Chk2 cascade, and phosphorylated Chk1 (pChk1), with pathological complete response (pCR) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. γ-H2AX and pChk1 were retrospectively assessed by immunohistochemistry in a series of pretreatment biopsies related to 66 patients. In fifty-three tumors hormone receptor status was negative in both the diagnostic biopsies and residual cancers, whereas in 13 cases there was a slight hormone receptor expression that changed after chemotherapy. Internal validation was carried out. In the entire cohort elevated levels of γ-H2AX, but not pChk1, were associated with reduced pCR rate (p = 0.009). The association tested significant in both uni- and multivariate logistic regression models (OR 4.51, 95% CI: 1.39–14.66, p = 0.012, and OR 5.07, 95% CI: 1.28–20.09, p = 0.021, respectively). Internal validation supported the predictive value of the model. The predictive ability of γ-H2AX was further confirmed in the multivariate model after exclusion of tumors that underwent changes in hormone receptor status during chemotherapy (OR 7.07, 95% CI: 1.39–36.02, p = 0.018). Finally, in residual diseases a significant decrease of γ-H2AX levels was observed (p < 0.001). Overall, γ-H2AX showed ability to predict pCR in TNBC and deserves larger, prospective studies. PMID:26544894

  4. Predictive significance of DNA damage and repair biomarkers in triple-negative breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: An exploratory analysis.

    PubMed

    Vici, Patrizia; Di Benedetto, Anna; Ercolani, Cristiana; Pizzuti, Laura; Di Lauro, Luigi; Sergi, Domenico; Sperati, Francesca; Terrenato, Irene; Dattilo, Rosanna; Botti, Claudio; Fabi, Alessandra; Ramieri, Maria Teresa; Mentuccia, Lucia; Marinelli, Camilla; Iezzi, Laura; Gamucci, Teresa; Natoli, Clara; Vitale, Ilio; Barba, Maddalena; Mottolese, Marcella; De Maria, Ruggero; Maugeri-Saccà, Marcello

    2015-12-15

    Response of cancer cells to chemotherapy-induced DNA damage is regulated by the ATM-Chk2 and ATR-Chk1 pathways. We investigated the association between phosphorylated H2AX (γ-H2AX), a marker of DNA double-strand breaks that trigger the ATM-Chk2 cascade, and phosphorylated Chk1 (pChk1), with pathological complete response (pCR) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. γ-H2AX and pChk1 were retrospectively assessed by immunohistochemistry in a series of pretreatment biopsies related to 66 patients. In fifty-three tumors hormone receptor status was negative in both the diagnostic biopsies and residual cancers, whereas in 13 cases there was a slight hormone receptor expression that changed after chemotherapy. Internal validation was carried out. In the entire cohort elevated levels of γ-H2AX, but not pChk1, were associated with reduced pCR rate (p = 0.009). The association tested significant in both uni- and multivariate logistic regression models (OR 4.51, 95% CI: 1.39-14.66, p = 0.012, and OR 5.07, 95% CI: 1.28-20.09, p = 0.021, respectively). Internal validation supported the predictive value of the model. The predictive ability of γ-H2AX was further confirmed in the multivariate model after exclusion of tumors that underwent changes in hormone receptor status during chemotherapy (OR 7.07, 95% CI: 1.39-36.02, p = 0.018). Finally, in residual diseases a significant decrease of γ-H2AX levels was observed (p < 0.001). Overall, γ-H2AX showed ability to predict pCR in TNBC and deserves larger, prospective studies.

  5. Comparison of phenotypic methods in predicting methicillin resistance in coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) from animals.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yifan; Wang, Xiaogang; LeJeune, Jeffrey T; Zervos, Marcus; Bhargava, Kanika

    2011-02-01

    Phenotypic detection of methicillin resistance in coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) of animal origin has been challenging due to the heterogeneous expression of mecA. To compare different phenotypic methods in predicting the mecA presence in CoNS, a total of 87 CoNS isolates from agricultural animals were analyzed in this study by agar dilution, disk diffusion, and broth microdilution. mecA was present in 81 CoNS isolates. Broth microdilution demonstrated the highest sensitivity of 100% in predicting the mecA presence, followed by 72.8% by agar dilution and 70.4% by disk diffusion. The results indicate that broth microdilution may be more suitable for predicting the presence of mecA in CoNS from animals than the other two methods, although staphylococcal species may also be a factor affecting the sensitivities of the methods as the top three staphylococcal species in this study were Staphylococcus lentus, Staphylococcus sciuri, and Staphylococcus xylosus (a total of 75 of 87).

  6. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    PubMed

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed.

  7. [Pilot study on predictive value of plasmatic levels of 9 angiogenetic biomarkers in selection of patients candidate to prostate biopsy].

    PubMed

    Serretta, Vincenzo; Scurria, Salvatore; Dispensa, Nino; Chiapparrone, Gaetano; Provenzano, Sandro; Caruso, Stefano; Bronte, Giuseppe; Cicero, Giuseppe; Russo, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    To reduce the number of negative prostate biopsies in patients with elevated PSA serum levels represents a major challenge in urological oncology. Angiogenetic factors might be involved in initial stages of prostate cancer and might represent useful tools in patients' selection for prostate biopsy. The plasmatic levels of Angiopoietin-2, Follistatin, G-CSF, HGF, IL-8, Leptin, PDGF-BB, PECAM-1 and VEGF were measured by BioPlex immunoassay in patients undergoing prostate biopsy for palpable prostate nodule and/or elevated PSA levels (≥4 ng/mL). They were related with biopsy results. ROC curve analysis was exploited to test the diagnostic accuracy of each biomarker by AUC calculation. A potential cut-off level was computed. Fifty patients were entered. Median PSA was 6.8 ng/mL. A prostate nodule was palpable in 18 (36%) patients. The median number of biopsy cores was 12. Prostate cancer was detected in 25 (50%) and ASAP and PIN in 2 more patients (4%) respectively. Among the 9 considered biomarkers, only leptin showed an interesting diagnostic performance with an AUC of 0.781, at a cut-off value of 2.11 ng/mL, demonstrating a sensitivity of 78%, a specificity of 77% and a positive predictive value of 85%. Main limitations of our study are the exploratory design and the criteria adopted for patients' selection determining a detection rate for prostate cancer above the usual range. Leptin only, in our preliminary study, shows promising diagnostic accuracy for the selection of patients candidate to prostate biopsy. Further studies are required to confirm its diagnostic value and its relation with BMI.

  8. Incidence, Mortality and Positive Predictive Value of Type 1 Cardiorenal Syndrome in Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Pimienta González, Raquel; Couto Comba, Patricia; Rodríguez Esteban, Marcos; Alemán Sánchez, José Juan; Hernández Afonso, Julio; Rodríguez Pérez, María del Cristo; Marcelino Rodríguez, Itahisa; Brito Díaz, Buenaventura; Elosua, Roberto; Cabrera de León, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine whether the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with cardiorenal syndrome subtype 1 (CRS1) in patients who were hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) was greater than the expected risk based on the sum of its components, to estimate the predictive value of CRS1, and to determine whether the severity of CRS1 worsens the prognosis. Methods Follow-up study of 1912 incident cases of ACS for 1 year after discharge. Cox regression models were estimated with time to event (in-hospital death, and readmission or death during the first year after discharge) as the dependent variable. Results The incidence of CRS1 was 9.2/1000 person-days of hospitalization (95% CI = 8.1–10.5), but these patients accounted for 56.6% (95% CI = 47.4–65.) of all mortality. The positive predictive value of CRS1 was 29.6% (95% CI = 23.9–36.0) for in-hospital death, and 51.4% (95% CI = 44.8–58.0) for readmission or death after discharge. The risk of in-hospital death from CRS1 (RR = 18.3; 95% CI = 6.3–53.2) was greater than the sum of risks associated with either acute heart failure (RR = 7.6; 95% CI = 1.8–31.8) or acute kidney injury (RR = 2.8; 95% CI = 0.9–8.8). The risk of events associated with CRS1 also increased with syndrome severity, reaching a RR of 10.6 (95% CI = 6.2–18.1) for in-hospital death at the highest severity level. Conclusions The effect of CRS1 on in-hospital mortality is greater than the sum of the effects associated with each of its components, and it increases with the severity of the syndrome. CRS1 accounted for more than half of all mortality, and its positive predictive value approached 30% in-hospital and 50% after discharge. PMID:27907067

  9. Predictive value of antinuclear antibodies in autoimmune diseases classified by clinical criteria: Analytical study in a specialized health institute, one year follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Soto, María Elena; Hernández-Becerril, Nidia; Perez-Chiney, Ada Claudia; Hernández-Rizo, Alfredo; Telich-Tarriba, José Eduardo; Juárez-Orozco, Luis Eduardo; Melendez, Gabriela; Bojalil, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Determination of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) is usually the initial test for the diagnosis of systemic rheumatic diseases (SRD). Assigning predictive values to positive and negative results of the test is vital because lack of knowledge about ANAs and their usefulness in classification criteria of SRD leads to inappropriate use. Methods: Retrospective study, ANA tests requested by different specialties, correlation to patients' final diagnosis. Results: The prevalence of autoimmune disease was relatively low in our population yielding a low PPV and a high NPV for the ANA test. 40% of the patients had no clinical criteria applied prior to test. Coexistence of two or more autoimmune disorders affects prevalence and predictive values. Conclusion: Application of the test after careful evaluation for clinical criteria remarkably improves the positive likelihood ratio for the diagnosis. PMID:26623249

  10. Multimethod, multi-informant agreement, and positive predictive value in the identification of child anxiety disorders using the SCAS and ADIS-C.

    PubMed

    Brown-Jacobsen, Amy M; Wallace, Dustin P; Whiteside, Stephen P H

    2011-09-01

    The current study sought to provide practical information for the clinical use of child and parent reports of child anxiety symptoms by investigating agreement between parent, child, and clinician as well as the predictive value of this information. Examining 88 anxious children and their parents, the study compared agreement by correlating parent and child responses on the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS); comparing parent and child responses to clinician data operationalized through continuous and dichotomous variables from the Anxiety Disorder Interview Schedule for Children; and examining the relative clinical utility of parent and child reports on the SCAS in terms of positive and negative predictive value. Results indicated that parent and child agreement on the SCAS was moderate to high for most anxiety disorder symptoms and that both were generally consistent with clinician impressions. Moreover, both child and parent provided unique information to the diagnostic process.

  11. MELANCHOLIC DEPRESSION PREDICTION BY IDENTIFYING REPRESENTATIVE FEATURES IN METABOLIC AND MICROARRAY PROFILES WITH MISSING VALUES

    PubMed Central

    Nie, Zhi; Yang, Tao; Liu, Yashu; Lin, Binbin; Li, Qingyang; Narayan, Vaibhav A; Wittenberg, Gayle; Ye, Jieping

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that melancholic depression, one major subtype of depression, is closely associated with the concentration of some metabolites and biological functions of certain genes and pathways. Meanwhile, recent advances in biotechnologies have allowed us to collect a large amount of genomic data, e.g., metabolites and microarray gene expression. With such a huge amount of information available, one approach that can give us new insights into the understanding of the fundamental biology underlying melancholic depression is to build disease status prediction models using classification or regression methods. However, the existence of strong empirical correlations, e.g., those exhibited by genes sharing the same biological pathway in microarray profiles, tremendously limits the performance of these methods. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing values which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications further complicates the problem. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of missing values might in some way benefit from the correlation between the variables and propose a method to learn a compressed set of representative features through an adapted version of sparse coding which is capable of identifying correlated variables and addressing the issue of missing values simultaneously. An efficient algorithm is also developed to solve the proposed formulation. We apply the proposed method on metabolic and microarray profiles collected from a group of subjects consisting of both patients with melancholic depression and healthy controls. Results show that the proposed method can not only produce meaningful clusters of variables but also generate a set of representative features that achieve superior classification performance over those generated by traditional clustering and data imputation techniques. In particular, on both datasets, we found that in comparison with the competing algorithms, the representative features learned by the proposed

  12. Melancholic depression prediction by identifying representative features in metabolic and microarray profiles with missing values.

    PubMed

    Nie, Zhi; Yang, Tao; Liu, Yashu; Li, Qingyang; Narayan, Vaibhav A; Wittenberg, Gayle; Ye, Jieping

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that melancholic depression, one major subtype of depression, is closely associated with the concentration of some metabolites and biological functions of certain genes and pathways. Meanwhile, recent advances in biotechnologies have allowed us to collect a large amount of genomic data, e.g., metabolites and microarray gene expression. With such a huge amount of information available, one approach that can give us new insights into the understanding of the fundamental biology underlying melancholic depression is to build disease status prediction models using classification or regression methods. However, the existence of strong empirical correlations, e.g., those exhibited by genes sharing the same biological pathway in microarray profiles, tremendously limits the performance of these methods. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing values which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications further complicates the problem. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of missing values might in some way benefit from the correlation between the variables and propose a method to learn a compressed set of representative features through an adapted version of sparse coding which is capable of identifying correlated variables and addressing the issue of missing values simultaneously. An efficient algorithm is also developed to solve the proposed formulation. We apply the proposed method on metabolic and microarray profiles collected from a group of subjects consisting of both patients with melancholic depression and healthy controls. Results show that the proposed method can not only produce meaningful clusters of variables but also generate a set of representative features that achieve superior classification performance over those generated by traditional clustering and data imputation techniques. In particular, on both datasets, we found that in comparison with the competing algorithms, the representative features learned by the proposed

  13. Development and validation of equations to predict the metabolizable energy value of corn for pigs.

    PubMed

    Bertol, T M; Zanotto, D L; Coldebella, A; Ludke, J V

    2017-01-01

    Three experiments were conducted with the aim of developing and validating an equation to predict the ME of corn for pigs from its chemical composition, physical characteristics and particle size. Exp. 1: Eight lots of corn were ground in a hammer mill, using 5 sieves with different screen opening sizes, generating 40 batches of ground corn. The chemical composition (DM, CP, ether extract, crude fiber, ADF, NDF, and ash) and physical characteristics (bulk density- BD and 1,000-kernel weight- TKW) were determined in the 8 lots and geometric mean diameter (GMD) and N-corrected ME (AMEn) were determined in the 40 batches of corn. The AMEn values were determined in 16 metabolism assays with pigs. Mathematical models were adjusted by regression analysis, based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Based on statistical parameters ( = 0.76 and prediction error = 1.05%), number of predictor variables, and easiness of measurements, an equation with 2 segments was chosen: y = 2845.41 + 0.9385 × BD - 20.8784 × CP, if GMD ≤ 522.98 and y = 3105.75 - 0.4978 × GMD + 0.9385 × BD - 20.8784 × CP, if GMD > 522.98. Exp. 2 and 3: Sixty four gilts (Exp. 1; 29.5 ± 3.8 kg) and 64 barrows (Exp. 2; 29.3 ± 3.6 kg), 1 lot of corn, and 3 particle sizes (GMD = 483, 632, and 904 µm) were used in a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement with 2 methods of diet formulation, differing in ME value of corn: "FIX" (value from nutrient composition table) vs. "ESTIMATED" (estimated for each particle size using the equation developed in Exp. 1). In Exp. 2, ADFI was greater ( < 0.05) and feed efficiency was lower ( < 0.05) in the diet with GMD of 904 µm compared to the diets with GMD of 632 or 483 µm, but only for diet formulation by the FIX method. In the treatments with GMD of 483 µm, gilts fed with the diet formulated by the ESTIMATED method had greater ( < 0.10) ADFI, backfat, fat area, and fat:meat ratio than gilts fed the diet formulated by the FIX method. In Exp. 3, particle size and formulation

  14. Animal studies on medicinal herbs: predictability, dose conversion and potential value.

    PubMed

    Wojcikowski, Ken; Gobe, Glenda

    2014-01-01

    Animal studies testing medicinal herbs are often misinterpreted by both translational researchers and clinicians due to a lack of information regarding their predictability, human dose equivalent and potential value. The most common mistake is to design or translate an animal study on a milligram per kilogram basis. This can lead to underestimation of the toxicity and/or overestimation of the amount needed for human therapy. Instead, allometric scaling, which involves body surface area, should be used. While the differences in the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic phases between species will inevitably lead to some degree of error in extrapolation of results regardless of the conversion method used, correct design and interpretation of animal studies can provide information that is not able to be provided by in vitro studies, computer modeling or even traditional use.

  15. A comparison of airborne wake vortex detection measurements with values predicted from potential theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, Eric C.

    1991-01-01

    An analysis of flight measurements made near a wake vortex was conducted to explore the feasibility of providing a pilot with useful wake avoidance information. The measurements were made with relatively low cost flow and motion sensors on a light airplane flying near the wake vortex of a turboprop airplane weighing approximately 90000 lbs. Algorithms were developed which removed the response of the airplane to control inputs from the total airplane response and produced parameters which were due solely to the flow field of the vortex. These parameters were compared with values predicted by potential theory. The results indicated that the presence of the vortex could be detected by a combination of parameters derived from the simple sensors. However, the location and strength of the vortex cannot be determined without additional and more accurate sensors.

  16. Value of Summer Season Precipitation Predictions in Decisions about Use of Precipitation Modification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shealy, Robin T.; Changnon, Stanley A.

    1993-11-01

    Results from a prior investigation of crop-yield shifts produced by simulated summer rain increases were coupled with summer rainfall forecasts to assess the possible economic outcomes of using forecasts to select the level of rain change for a summer. Simulated rain increases tested ranged from 10% to 40%. values not scientifically established as possible from midwestern cloud seeding, but chosen to provide a wide range of conceivable changes. The yields of corn and soybeans, under these different levels of simulated rain increases and grown under various growing season conditions experienced during a five-year agricultural plot experiment, varied considerably. To test the value of using a forecast, a summer rain forecast (above, below, or new average) made on 1 June and with an accuracy of 60%, was used as a guide to select the amount of rain change to use in each of the five test years. Then, the distribution of the financial gain from crop yields obtained was computed. The use of the forecasts showed an expected gain in 85% of the annual cases studied. Use of this forecasting skill (and hence less than perfect choice of level of precipitation augmentation to use in a given year), produced a gain in revenue expected over the five-years test period of 1.6% of the crop value, a possible maximum gain of 3.8%, and a possible maximum low of 0.6%. Rain increase applied without use of summer rain predictions (and based on use of the added rain level found best for continuous use in all five years) provided a revenue gain of only 0.4%, considerably less than the value obtained with the forecasts. If perfect rain forecasts existed, the expected gain would be 4.5% of the crop value. Even with a rain-modification technology that could deliver 10%, 25%, or even 40% rain increases in any given summer, the agricultural value of rain augmentation in Illinois done over a series of years is relatively small, even when coupled with forecasts.

  17. Renal and cardiovascular risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria screening methods in patients with hypertension with/without diabetes in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Polónia, J; Carvalho, D; Nazaré, J; Martins, L; da Silva, P M; Aguiar, C; Manso, M C; Carqueja, T

    2016-11-01

    MicRoAlbuminuria sCreening survEy (RACE) was a multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study conducted in primary health-care settings of Portugal. Here, we present a post-hoc analysis from the RACE study, assessing the renal and cardiovascular (CV) risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria (MA) screening methods, nephelometry with 24-h urine (MA-24 h) and Micral test with occasional urine (MicralA) in patients with hypertension (HTN) with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Out of 3065 patients, 1173 (38.3%) were in the HTN group without T2DM (HTN) and 1892 (61.7%) in the HTN group with T2DM (HTN+T2DM). The overall prevalence of MA was 50.6% determined by MicralA and 22.1% with MA-24 h. Urinary albumin excretion data obtained by both techniques correlated significantly (rs=0.586; P<0.001). In all subjects, MicralA showed a sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 62% for detection of MA, with a positive predictive value of 41% and negative predictive value of 97%. With both methods, the presence of MA was independently associated with a higher risk (1.5- to 2.9-fold) of CV and renal organ damage in both HTN and HTN+T2DM groups. MicralA, due to its high sensitivity and negative predictive value, can be considered as a valid and reliable method for MA screening in patients with HTN with/without T2DM.

  18. Strongyloides stercoralis, Eosinophilia, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Predictive Value of Eosinophilia in the Diagnosis of S stercoralis Infection in an Endemic Community

    PubMed Central

    Hays, Russell; Thompson, Fintan; Esterman, Adrian; McDermott, Robyn

    2016-01-01

    Background. This study examines the predictive value of eosinophilia for Strongyloides stercoralis infection, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing, in an endemic community. In remote communities, eosinophilia is frequently used as a proxy test for the presence of helminth infections. Past studies of eosinophilia and Strongyloides infection have been conducted in specific groups such as immigrants and refugees, or in subpopulations of nonendemic communities, rather than in endemic communities. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional study of the relationship between eosinophilia and Strongyloides ELISA serology, as part of a study into the relationship between S stercoralis infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in an Indigenous community in northern Australia. Results. Two hundred thirty-nine adults had their eosinophil count and S stercoralis ELISA serology measured in 2012 and 2013, along with other biometric and metabolic data. Eosinophilia was found to have a relatively poor sensitivity (60.9%), specificity (71.1%), positive predictive value (54.6%), and negative predictive value (76.1%) for S stercoralis ELISA positivity in this group. However, there was a more constant relationship between eosinophilia and S Stercoralis ELISA positivity in patients with T2DM (negative predictive value 87.5%). Conclusion. This study suggests that the presence or absence of eosinophilia is not an adequate proxy test for S stercoralis infection in a community where the infection is prevalent, and that the association between eosinophilia and S stercoralis ELISA positivity is more constant in patients with T2DM. PMID:26989753

  19. The predictive value of dominant nodules and the management of indeterminate group in multinodular goiter.

    PubMed

    Acıoğlu, Engin; Yiğit, Özgür; Seden, Nihal; Huq, Gülben Erdem

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the predictive value of dominant nodules (DNs) in multinodular goiters (MNGs), and to stratify the risk of malignancy within the indeterminate category. The study design was retrospective study of patients with MNG. A total of 140 patients were reviewed. Fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) findings for all DNs were categorized into four groups: (1) benign, (2) positive or suspicious for malignancy, (3) indeterminate, and (4) non-diagnostic. All FNAB specimens of the indeterminate group were also evaluated for the presence of Hurthle cell metaplasia and were categorized according to the presence of cytological atypia. Cytohistological comparison was then performed. Mean number and diameter of the DNs were 1.45 and 25.6 mm, respectively. Based on final histopathology, 22.14% of the patients had thyroid malignancy and 74.2% of thyroid carcinomas were located in DNs. The number of DNs was significantly larger in malignant thyroid glands than in benign ones. In total, 22.6% of the indeterminate FNABs were malignant. FNABs of the indeterminate group that included atypical cells had a statistically significant higher incidence of malignancy. The presence of Hurthle cells was not statistically different in malignant and benign nodules upon final histological diagnosis. In conclusion, FNAB of only DNs in MNG could determine thyroid malignancy in 75% of patients. The DN number might be required for the predictive value of malignancy. A subclassification of the indeterminate group, based on the presence or absence of cytological atypia, is necessary to better assess the risk of malignancy.

  20. Positive predictive value of diagnosis coding for hemolytic anemias in the Danish National Patient Register

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Dennis Lund; Overgaard, Ulrik Malthe; Pedersen, Lars; Frederiksen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The nationwide public health registers in Denmark provide a unique opportunity for evaluation of disease-associated morbidity if the positive predictive values (PPVs) of the primary diagnosis are known. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive values of hemolytic anemias registered in the Danish National Patient Register. Patients and methods All patients with a first-ever diagnosis of hemolytic anemia from either specialist outpatient clinic contact or inpatient admission at Odense University Hospital from January 1994 through December 2011 were considered for inclusion. Patients with mechanical reason for hemolysis such as an artificial heart valve, and patients with vitamin-B12 or folic acid deficiency were excluded. Results We identified 412 eligible patients: 249 with a congenital hemolytic anemia diagnosis and 163 with acquired hemolytic anemia diagnosis. In all, hemolysis was confirmed in 359 patients, yielding an overall PPV of 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 83.5%–90.2%). A diagnosis could be established in 392 patients of whom 355 patients had a hemolytic diagnosis. Diagnosis was confirmed in 197 of the 249 patients with congenital hemolytic anemia, yielding a PPV of 79.1% (95% CI: 73.5%–84.0%). Diagnosis of acquired hemolytic anemia could be confirmed in 136 of the 163 patients, resulting in a PPV of 83.4% (95% CI: 76.8%–88.8%). For hemoglobinopathy PPV was 84.1% (95% CI: 77.4%–89.4%), for hereditary spherocytosis PPV was 80.6% (95% CI: 69.5%–88.9%), and for autoimmune hemolytic anemia PPV was 78.4% (95% CI: 70.4%–85.0%). Conclusion The PPV of hemolytic anemias was moderately high. The PPVs were comparable in the three main categories of overall hemolysis, and congenital and acquired hemolytic anemia. PMID:27445504

  1. Predictive and prognostic value of preoperative serum tumor markers in resectable adenosqamous lung carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Yue, Dongsheng; Li, Kai; Jiang, Richeng

    2016-01-01

    Background Adenosquamous carcinoma is a rare and aggressive form of lung cancer. The prognostic and predictive value of preoperative serum tumor markers and frequency of EGFR mutations in adenosquamous lung carcinoma are unclear. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data and samples collected from 106 radically resected adenosquamous lung carcinoma patients with pathological stage I-IIIA between 2008 and 2013. Correlations between serum tumor marker levels and EGFR mutations as well as survival parameters were analyzed and prognostic factors were identified. Results Of the 106 adenosquamous lung carcinoma patients, 29 (27.4%) harbored EGFR mutations. By univariate analysis, advanced clinical stage (P = 0.009 for disease-free survival [DFS]; P = 0.046 for overall survival [OS]), larger tumor size (P = 0.001 for DFS; P = 0.002 for OS), regional lymph node metastasis (P = 0.024 for DFS; P = 0.030 for OS), higher NSE level (P = 0.002 for DFS; P < 0.001 for OS), and higher TMI (tumor marker index) (P = 0.009 for OS) were significantly correlated with a worse prognosis. By multivariate analysis, NSE (P = 0.014) was confirmed as independent predictor for DFS, while NSE (P = 0.001) and TMI (P = 0.038) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Conclusion Adenosquamous lung carcinoma is an aggressive malignancy with relatively high EGFR mutation frequency. Elevated preoperative NSE level and TMI are adverse predictive and prognostic indicators. PMID:27623437

  2. Predictive value of XPG rs2296147T>C polymorphism on clinical outcomes of cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuhan; Han, Yingying; Weng, Qiang; Yuan, Zhengrong

    2016-01-01

    The Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group G (XPG) rs2296147T>C polymorphism is suspected to associate with the clinical outcomes of cancer patients. However, the results are inconsistent. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the reliable predictive value of XPG rs2296147T>C polymorphism on clinical outcomes of cancer patients. A total of 11 eligible studies were enrolled in this meta-analysis. Our results indicated that the cancer patients with TT and CT genotypes were significantly associated with better respond rates when compared with the CC genotype (TT versus (vs.) CC: odds ratio (OR) = 2.05, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1.32-3.20, P = 0.002; TT+CT vs. CC: OR= 1.57, 95% CI, 1.14-2.17, P = 0.005). The TT genotype and/or T allele might be associated with higher survival time for cancer patients than the CC genotype and/or C allele. The cumulative meta-analyses showed an apparent beneficial objective response of TT genotype on cancer patients. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests that the XPG rs2296147T>C polymorphism is associated with the clinical outcomes of cancer patients. The XPG rs2296147T>C polymorphism might be a predictive factor of prognosis in cancers patients and contribute to individual treatment in the future. PMID:27588464

  3. Predictive modeling of Pseudomonas fluorescens growth under different temperature and pH values.

    PubMed

    Gonçalves, Letícia Dias Dos Anjos; Piccoli, Roberta Hilsdorf; Peres, Alexandre de Paula; Saúde, André Vital

    Meat is one of the most perishable foods owing to its nutrient availability, high water activity, and pH around 5.6. These properties are highly conducive for microbial growth. Fresh meat, when exposed to oxygen, is subjected to the action of aerobic psychrotrophic, proteolytic, and lipolytic spoilage microorganisms, such as Pseudomonas spp. The spoilage results in the appearance of slime and off-flavor in food. In order to predict the growth of Pseudomonas fluorescens in fresh meat at different pH values, stored under refrigeration, and temperature abuse, microbial mathematical modeling was applied. The primary Baranyi and Roberts and the modified Gompertz models were fitted to the experimental data to obtain the growth parameters. The Ratkowsky extended model was used to determine the effect of pH and temperature on the growth parameter μmax. The program DMFit 3.0 was used for model adjustment and fitting. The experimental data showed good fit for both the models tested, and the primary and secondary models based on the Baranyi and Roberts models showed better validation. Thus, these models can be applied to predict the growth of P. fluorescens under the conditions tested.

  4. On marker-assisted prediction of genetic value: beyond the ridge.

    PubMed Central

    Gianola, Daniel; Perez-Enciso, Miguel; Toro, Miguel A

    2003-01-01

    Marked-assisted genetic improvement of agricultural species exploits statistical dependencies in the joint distribution of marker genotypes and quantitative traits. An issue is how molecular (e.g., dense marker maps) and phenotypic information (e.g., some measure of yield in plants) is to be used for predicting the genetic value of candidates for selection. Multiple regression, selection index techniques, best linear unbiased prediction, and ridge regression of phenotypes on marker genotypes have been suggested, as well as more elaborate methods. Here, phenotype-marker associations are modeled hierarchically via multilevel models including chromosomal effects, a spatial covariance of marked effects within chromosomes, background genetic variability, and family heterogeneity. Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients are suggested for assessing the inequality of the contribution of different marked effects to genetic variability. Classical and Bayesian methods are presented. The Bayesian approach includes a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. The generality and flexibility of the Bayesian method is illustrated when a Lorenz curve is to be inferred. PMID:12586721

  5. The value of radiology in predicting gallstone type when selecting patients for medical treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Bell, G D; Dowling, R H; Whitney, B; Sutor, D J

    1975-01-01

    Since medical treatment of gallstones is confined to cholesterol-rich stones, the ability of clinical radiographs to predict gallstone type was tested prospectively by comparing the preoperative radiological appearance of gallstones from 57 unselected patients with cholelithiasis coming to cholecystectomy with the subsequent analysis of the stones both by X-ray diffraction and by chemical techniques. Fifty-two per cent of the patients had 'non-functioning' gallbladders which failed to opacify after at least two contrast examinations and 25 out of 50 had radioopaque stones. Of the 25 patients with radiolucent stones, the stones in 20 ((80%) were predominantly cholesterol in type but radiology was misleading in five; three contained 40-55% calcium salts but were still radiolucent while two were amorphous and contained less than 10% cholesterol by weight on chemical analysis. While radiology was sometimes misleading when the stones were small and irregular, large radiolucent stones with a smooth profile were invariably cholesterol-rich stones. The results also show that in men calcified stones were commoner than in women and that in older women the gallstones contained more calcium salts and less cholesterol than in younger women less than 50 yr). This paper analyses critically the value and limitations of clinical radiology in predicting gallstone type. PMID:1140634

  6. Predictive and Prognostic Value of sPRR in Patients with Primary Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Franz, Annika; Richter, Rolf; Dragun, Duska; Heidecke, Harald; Dechend, Ralf; Muller, Dominik N.; Sehouli, Jalid; Braicu, Elena I.

    2016-01-01

    Aim. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the predictive and prognostic role of soluble (pro)renin receptor (sPRR) as a biomarker for clinicopathological outcome in patients with primary epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). As part of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) whose activity is known to increase in ovarian cancer patients, the relation of sPRR and ovarian cancer should be further investigated. Patients and Methods. In this study 197 patients with primary EOC in our institution from 2000 to 2011 were included. sPRR was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in preoperative taken blood sera. Associations with clinicopathological outcome were analyzed and serum levels of sPRR in patients have been compared to those in healthy specimen. Kaplan-Meier and logistic/Cox regression assessed the impact of the markers on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results. There have been no correlations proved of sPRR levels with neither clinicopathological factors nor prognostic data. Also the distribution of sPRR in patients and controls was normal. Conclusion. sPRR seems to have no predictive, prognostic, or diagnostic value in EOC. As several factors of the RAS which might indicate cancer events have been shown, sPRR seems not to be affected. PMID:27660742

  7. Apoptosis in cervical squamous carcinoma: predictive value for survival following radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Paxton, J; Bolger, B; Armour, A; Symonds, R; Mao, J; Burnett, R

    2000-01-01

    Background—Apoptosis, or programmed cell death, can be induced by radiotherapy. The extent of apoptosis in a tumour before treatment may have important implications for response to radiotherapy and long term survival. Aim—To examine the extent of apoptosis in tumour tissue from patients with squamous carcinoma of the cervix before radiotherapy, and to correlate this with response to treatment and prognosis. Methods—The percentage of apoptotic cells was assessed in 146 carcinomas of the cervix from patients scheduled to receive radiotherapy. The CAS 200 static image analysis system was used to count the number of tumour nuclei per high power field, while the numbers of apoptotic cells in the same field were visualised simultaneously on the image analyser and recorded manually. Results—The median apoptotic level was 0.73%. Patients were divided into two groups around the median. There was no statistically significant difference in outcome between the two groups as determined by long term survival following radiotherapy. Conclusions—The CAS 200 static image analyser system can be used to assist in the rapid semiautomated assessment of apoptosis in conventionally prepared tissue. The results suggest that the apoptotic state of a tumour before treatment is of no value in predicting response to radiotherapy and subsequent prognosis. Tumour stage, size, and BrdU labelling index, as a measure of proliferation rate, remain the most important prognostic factors in terms of predicting local tumour control. Key Words: apoptosis • uterine cervix • squamous cell carcinoma PMID:10823138

  8. Valuing structured professional judgment: predictive validity, decision-making, and the clinical-actuarial conflict.

    PubMed

    Falzer, Paul R

    2013-01-01

    Structured professional judgment (SPJ) has received considerable attention as an alternative to unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment, and as a means of resolving their ongoing conflict. However, predictive validity studies have typically relied on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the same technique commonly used to validate actuarial assessment tools. This paper presents SPJ as distinct from both unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. A key distinguishing feature of SPJ is the contribution of modifiable factors, either dynamic or protective, to summary risk ratings. With modifiable factors, the summary rating scheme serves as a prognostic model rather than a classification procedure. However, prognostic models require more extensive and thorough predictive validity testing than can be provided by ROC analysis. It is proposed that validation should include calibration and reclassification techniques, as well as additional measures of discrimination. Several techniques and measures are described and illustrated. The paper concludes by tracing the limitations of ROC analysis to its philosophical foundation and its origin as a statistical theory of decision-making. This foundation inhibits the performance of crucial tasks, such as determining the sufficiency of a risk assessment and examining the evidentiary value of statistical findings. The paper closes by noting a current effort to establish a viable and complementary relationship between SPJ and decision-making theory.

  9. Value of MR histogram analyses for prediction of microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Qin; Liang, He-Yue; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ding, Ying; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The objective is to explore the value of preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) histogram analyses in predicting microvascular invasion (MVI) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Fifty-one patients with histologically confirmed HCC who underwent diffusion-weighted and contrast-enhanced MR imaging were included. Histogram analyses were performed and mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles were derived. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between HCCs with and without MVI. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were generated to compare the diagnostic performance of tumor size, histogram analyses of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and MR enhancement. The mean, 1th, 10th, and 50th percentiles of ADC maps, and the mean, variance. 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles of the portal venous phase (PVP) images were significantly different between the groups with and without MVI (P <0.05), with area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.66 to 0.74 for ADC and 0.76 to 0.88 for PVP. The largest AUC of PVP (1th percentile) showed significantly higher accuracy compared with that of arterial phase (AP) or tumor size (P <0.001). MR histogram analyses—in particular for 1th percentile for PVP images—held promise for prediction of MVI of HCC. PMID:27368028

  10. Predictive value of facial nerve electrophysiologic stimulation thresholds in cerebellopontine-angle surgery.

    PubMed

    Selesnick, S H; Carew, J F; Victor, J D; Heise, C W; Levine, J

    1996-05-01

    The predictive value of intraoperative stimulation thresholds for facial nerve function, using a constant-current system, was examined in 49 patients undergoing resection of cerebellopontine-angle tumors. Immediately after surgery, 75% of the 0.1-mA threshold group, 42% of the 0.2-mA group, and 18% of the 0.3-mA or greater group had good (grade I or II) facial nerve function. One year after surgery, 90% of the 0.1-mA group, 58% of the 0.2-mA group, and 41% of the 0.3-mA or greater group had grade I or II function. A statistically significant breakpoint of 0.2 mA was found to predict good postoperative facial function. Delayed facial paralysis occurred in 22% of patients, but the prognosis for these patients was favorable. Both current stimulation threshold and duration are necessary for a meaningful comparison of data between investigators.

  11. Predictive Value of Postoperative Electrophysiologic Testing of the Facial Nerve After Cerebellopontine Angle Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Selesnick, Samuel H.; Digoy, G. Paul; Ptachewich, Yael; Rubin, Michael; Victor, Jonathan D.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to assess the ability of postoperative electroneuronography (ENoG) and electromyography (EMG) to predict clinical facial function 1 year postoperatively in patients with facial paralysis and an intact facial nerve after cerebellopontine angle surgery. The study was a prospective, nonrandomized, uncontrolled clinical trial on an outpatient basis, at a tertiary care hospital. Primary eligibility criteria include: (1) cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgery with anatomical preservation of facial nerve, (2) complete facial nerve paralysis; and (3) 1 year follow-up. ENoG and EMG were measured at 1 and 3 months postoperatively, House-Brackmann facial nerve grade at 1 year postoperatively. The Kendall coefficient of rank correlation demonstrated that the 1 and 3 month postoperative ENoG data were significant predictors of ultimate facial nerve outcome. Tracking multiple ENoG examinations in a single patient, over time was of little predictive value. EMG was a poor predictor of facial nerve outcome. In general, patients with delayed facial nerve paralysis had better ultimate facial function than patients with immediate paralysis. Postoperative ENoG, but not EMG was a statistically significant predictor of ultimate facial nerve outcome after CPA surgery. Patients with delayed facial paralysis had better outcomes than those with immediate facial paralysis. PMID:17171049

  12. Predictive value of postoperative electrophysiologic testing of the facial nerve after cerebellopontine angle surgery.

    PubMed

    Selesnick, S H; Digoy, G P; Ptachewich, Y; Rubin, M; Victor, J D

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to assess the ability of postoperative electroneuronography (ENoG) and electromyography (EMG) to predict clinical facial function 1 year postoperatively in patients with facial paralysis and an intact facial nerve after cerebellopontine angle surgery. The study was a prospective, nonrandomized, uncontrolled clinical trial on an outpatient basis, at a tertiary care hospital. Primary eligibility criteria include: (1) cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgery with anatomical preservation of facial nerve, (2) complete facial nerve paralysis; and (3) 1 year follow-up. ENoG and EMG were measured at 1 and 3 months postoperatively, House-Brackmann facial nerve grade at 1 year postoperatively. The Kendall coefficient of rank correlation demonstrated that the 1 and 3 month postoperative ENoG data were significant predictors of ultimate facial nerve outcome. Tracking multiple ENoG examinations in a single patient, over time was of little predictive value. EMG was a poor predictor of facial nerve outcome. In general, patients with delayed facial nerve paralysis had better ultimate facial function than patients with immediate paralysis. Postoperative ENoG, but not EMG was a statistically significant predictor of ultimate facial nerve outcome after CPA surgery. Patients with delayed facial paralysis had better outcomes than those with immediate facial paralysis.

  13. Radiation therapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma: the predictive value of interim survival assessment.

    PubMed

    Toya, Ryo; Murakami, Ryuji; Saito, Tetsuo; Murakami, Daizo; Matsuyama, Tomohiko; Baba, Yuji; Nishimura, Ryuichi; Hirai, Toshinori; Semba, Akiko; Yumoto, Eiji; Yamashita, Yasuyuki; Oya, Natsuo

    2016-09-01

    Pretreatment characteristics are suggested as predictive and/or prognostic factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); however, individual tumor radiosensitivities have previously not been considered. As boost planning is recommended for NPC, we performed interim assessments of magnetic resonance (MR) images for boost planning and retrospectively evaluated their predictive value for the survival of NPC patients. Radiation therapy via elective nodal irradiation (median dose: 39.6 Gy) with/without chemotherapy was used to treat 63 NPC patients. Boost irradiation (median total dose: 70 Gy) was performed based on the interim assessment. The largest lymph node (LN) was measured on MR images acquired at the time of interim assessment. The site of first failure was local in 8 (12.7%), regional in 7 (11.1%), and distant in 12 patients (19.0%). All 7 patients with regional failure harbored LNs ≥15 mm at interim assessment. We divided the 63 patients into two groups based on LN size [large (≥15 mm), n = 10 and small (<15 mm), n = 53]. Univariate analysis showed that 5-year overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) rates for large LNs were significantly lower than for small LNs (OS: 12.5% vs 70.5%, P < 0.001 and CSS: 25.0% vs 80.0%, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that large LNs were a significantly unfavorable factor for both OS (hazard ratio = 4.543, P = 0.002) and CSS (hazard ratio = 6.020, P = 0.001). The results suggest that LN size at interim assessment could predict survival in NPC patients.

  14. The Effect of Social Network "Snapchat" on the Emergence of Some Negative Social Values (Social Hatred) Based on the Perspectives of Qassim Female Students: A Survey Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hussein, lawaheth M. T.

    2016-01-01

    The present study aims at detecting the effect of social media "Snapchat" on the emergence of some negative social values (social hatred ) based on the perspectives of female students enrolling at Qassim University, College of Science and Arts at ArRass, the academic year 2015/2016. The researcher has utilized the Descriptive Method…

  15. Quantum dot-based immunofluorescent imaging and quantitative detection of TOP2A and prognostic value in triple-negative breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Hongmei; Li, Xiang; Chen, Chuang; Chen, Jian; Sun, Jinzhong; Sun, Si; Jin, Liting; Li, Juanjuan; Sun, Shengrong; Wu, Xinhong

    2016-01-01

    Background Topoisomerase 2 alpha (TOP2A) is a key enzyme in DNA replication and a target of various cytotoxic agents including anthracyclines. Previous studies evaluating the predictive and prognostic values of TOP2A in breast cancer are contradictory, likely secondary to the use of both different detection methods and different cutoff thresholds for positive status. Our own studies have previously confirmed the advantages of quantum dot-based nanotechnology for quantitative analysis of biomarkers relative to conventional immunohistochemistry (IHC). This study was designed to 1) assess the expression of TOP2A, 2) investigate the relationship between TOP2A expression and major clinical pathological parameters, and 3) evaluate the prognostic value of TOP2A by quantum dot-based immunofluorescent imaging and quantitative analytical system (QD-IIQAS) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Patients and methods TOP2A expression in 145 TNBC specimens was detected using IHC and QD-IIQAS, and a comparative analysis of the two methods was conducted, including an exploration of the relationship between TOP2A expression and major clinical pathological parameters in TNBC. The prognostic value of TOP2A in TNBC was assessed. Results A similar antigen localization, a high correlation of staining rates (r=0.79), and a high agreement of measurements (κ=0.763) of TOP2A expression in TNBC were found by QD-IIQAS and conventional IHC (cutoff: 45.0 and 0.45, respectively). TOP2A was significantly higher in larger tumors (P=0.002), higher grade tumors (P=0.005), and lymph node positive patients (P<0.001). The 5-year disease-free survival (5-DFS) of the high and low TOP2A subgroups was significantly different for both QD-IIQAS and IHC (P<0.001, log-rank test for both). TOP2A expression was an independent predictor of survival in TNBC (P=0.001). Conclusion QD-IIQAS was an easy and accurate method for detecting and assessing TOP2A. The TOP2A expression was an independent prognostic

  16. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse

    PubMed Central

    O'Donnell, J. Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D.; McLaughlin, Milena M.; Esterly, John S.

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  17. MET expression and copy number status in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma: prognostic value and potential predictive marker

    PubMed Central

    Macher-Goeppinger, Stephan; Keith, Martina; Endris, Volker; Penzel, Roland; Tagscherer, Katrin E.; Pahernik, Sascha; Hohenfellner, Markus; Gardner, Humphrey; Grüllich, Carsten; Schirmacher, Peter; Roth, Wilfried

    2017-01-01

    Multiple targeted therapy for advanced clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has substantially improved patient outcome, but complete remission is uncommon and many tumors eventually develop resistance. Mechanistic, preclinical, and early clinical data highlight c-Met / hepatocyte growth factor receptor as a promising target for RCC therapeutic agents. We have examined MET expression, frequency of MET gene copy gains and MET gene mutation in a large, hospital-based series of renal cell carcinomas with long-term follow-up information. Out of a total of 572 clear-cell RCC, only 17% were negative for MET expression whereas 32% showed high protein levels. High MET expression and MET copy number gains were associated with an aggressive phenotype and an unfavorable patient outcome. Elevated protein levels in absence of gene amplification were not attributed to mutations, based on results of targeted next-generation sequencing. Our data reveal that clear-cell RCC with MET upregulation show an aggressive behavior and MET copy number increase is evident in a substantial percentage of patients with high-grade carcinomas and metastatic disease. Diagnostic assessment of MET expression and amplification may be of predictive value to guide targeted therapy against MET signaling in patients with clear-cell RCC. PMID:27894094

  18. Estimating the positive predictive value of opportunistic population testing for gonorrhoea as part of the English Chlamydia Screening Programme.

    PubMed

    Fowler, T; Edeghere, O; Inglis, N; Bradshaw, S

    2013-03-01

    Advances in technology have raised the possibility of including gonorrhoea testing as part of chlamydia screening. In England this is recommended only where the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test is ≥90%. This study assessed the PPV for gonorrhoea testing using routine testing data. Routine data (including gonorrhoea testing) from the Greater Manchester Chlamydia Screening Programme (GMCSP) in 2009/2010, were used to estimate the PPV for gonorrhoea testing. Of those screened, 0.3% (59/18044) of men and 0.4% (174/41873) of women tested positive for gonorrhoea. The PPV was 82.3% in women and 73.6% in men, in those who also tested positive for chlamydia. For women and men testing negative for chlamydia the PPV for a positive gonorrhoea test was incalculable. The low PPV observed in most groups suggests that where population testing for gonorrhoea occurs there is a need for further confirmatory testing of positive results before treatment decisions are made. Clinicians should be aware of screening test result limitations in this context.

  19. Predictive Value of Serum IFN-γ inducible Protein-10 and IFN-γ/IL-4 Ratio for Liver Fibrosis Progression in CHB Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yadong; Yu, Weiyan; Shen, Chuan; Wang, Wei; Zhang, Li; Liu, Fang; Sun, Hui; Zhao, Yajuan; Che, Honghao; Zhao, Caiyan

    2017-01-01

    Noninvasive serum markers for assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients have not been well-studied. The present study was to evaluate the predictive value of serum interferon gamma-inducible protein-10 (IP-10/CXCL10) and the interferon (IFN)-γ/interleukin (IL)-4 ratio for liver fibrosis progression in CHB patients. A total of 180 CHB patients were categorized into four groups: no fibrosis, mild fibrosis, moderate fibrosis, and severe fibrosis. Serum and intrahepatic levels of IP-10, IFN-γ, and IL-4 were examined, from which the IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio was calculated. We found that the serum IP-10 levels were positively correlated with the severity of liver fibrosis, whereas the IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio was negatively associated with the progression of hepatic fibrosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the serum IP-10 was an independent predictor for significant fibrosis. For predicting significant fibrosis, the IP-10 cut-off value of 300 ng/mL had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 68.6%. When the IP-10 level was combined with the IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio, the specificity and positive predictive value were 93.8% and 94.6%, respectively; thus, the discriminatory ability was much improved. In conclusion, the serum IP-10 level and the IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio have great potential to predict significant fibrosis among CHB patients. PMID:28067328

  20. Using Heuristic Value Prediction and Dynamic Task Granularity Resizing to Improve Software Speculation

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Li; Wang, Zhiying; Guo, Hui; Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Exploiting potential thread-level parallelism (TLP) is becoming the key factor to improving performance of programs on multicore or many-core systems. Among various kinds of parallel execution models, the software-based speculative parallel model has become a research focus due to its low cost, high efficiency, flexibility, and scalability. The performance of the guest program under the software-based speculative parallel execution model is closely related to the speculation accuracy, the control overhead, and the rollback overhead of the model. In this paper, we first analyzed the conventional speculative parallel model and presented an analytic model of its expectation of the overall overhead, then optimized the conventional model based on the analytic model, and finally proposed a novel speculative parallel model named HEUSPEC. The HEUSPEC model includes three key techniques, namely, the heuristic value prediction, the value based correctness checking, and the dynamic task granularity resizing. We have implemented the runtime system of the model in ANSI C language. The experiment results show that when the speedup of the HEUSPEC model can reach 2.20 on the average (15% higher than conventional model) when depth is equal to 3 and 4.51 on the average (12% higher than conventional model) when speculative depth is equal to 7. Besides, it shows good scalability and lower memory cost. PMID:24971374

  1. Pulse perfusion value predicts eye opening after sevoflurane anaesthesia: an explorative study.

    PubMed

    Enekvist, Bruno; Johansson, Anders

    2015-08-01

    The variables measured in modern pulse oximetry apparatuses include a graphical pulse curve and a specified perfusion value (PV) that could be a sensitive marker for detecting differences in sympathetic activity. We hypothesized that there is a correlation between a reduction of PV and the time to eye opening after general anaesthesia. The objective was to investigate whether PV can predict eye opening after sevoflurane anaesthesia. Prospective, explorative clinical study included 20 patients, ASA physical status 1 or 2, at Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden, from November 2012 to January 2013 scheduled for elective breast tumour surgery. A general anaesthesia was delivered with inhalation of oxygen, nitrous oxide and sevoflurane anaesthesia to a depth of 1.2 minimal alveolar concentration. Sevoflurane inspiratory and expiratory concentrations were measured. Bispectral index monitoring, PV as measured by pulse oximeter, heart rate and carbon dioxide were registered at before anaesthesia, 15 min after induction (at 1.2 minimal alveolar concentration), at end of surgery and at eye opening at the end of anaesthesia. PV values were lower before anaesthesia and at eye opening compared to at 15 min after induction and at end of surgery (P < 0.05). The reduction of PV between end of surgery and eye opening was 0.76. We conclude that the pulse oximeter PV could be a useful variable to assess the timing of recovery, in terms of eye opening after a general anaesthesia.

  2. Derivation of groundwater threshold values for analysis of impacts predicted at potential carbon sequestration sites

    SciTech Connect

    Last, G. V.; Murray, C. J.; Bott, Y.

    2016-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project is developing reduced-order models to evaluate potential impacts to groundwater quality due to carbon dioxide (CO2) or brine leakage, should it occur from deep CO2 storage reservoirs. These efforts targeted two classes of aquifer – an unconfined fractured carbonate aquifer based on the Edwards Aquifer in Texas, and a confined alluvium aquifer based on the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas. Hypothetical leakage scenarios focus on wellbores as the most likely conduits from the storage reservoir to an underground source of drinking water (USDW). To facilitate evaluation of potential degradation of the USDWs, threshold values, below which there would be no predicted impacts, were determined for each of these two aquifer systems. These threshold values were calculated using an interwell approach for determining background groundwater concentrations that is an adaptation of methods described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities. Results demonstrate the importance of establishing baseline groundwater quality conditions that capture the spatial and temporal variability of the USDWs prior to CO2 injection and storage.

  3. Predictive value of specific ultrasound findings when used as a screening test for abnormalities on VCUG

    PubMed Central

    Logvinenko, Tanya; Chow, Jeanne S.; Nelson, Caleb P.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background Renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) is often used as an initial screening test for children after urinary tract infection (UTI). The 2011 AAP guidelines specifically recommend that RBUS be performed first, with voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) to be performed only if the ultrasound is abnormal. While prior research has suggested that RBUS is neither sensitive nor specific for VCUG findings, such as vesicoureteral reflux (VUR), it is uncertain as to whether specific RBUS findings, alone or in combination, might make RBUS more useful as a predictor of VCUG abnormalities. Aims To evaluate the association of specific RBUS with VCUG findings, and determine whether predictive models that accurately predict patients at high risk of VCUG abnormalities, based on RBUS findings, can be constructed. Methods and study sample A total of 3995 patients were identified with VCUG and RBUS performed on the same day. The RBUS and VCUG reports were reviewed and the findings were classified. Analysis was limited to patients aged 0–60 months with no prior postnatal genitourinary imaging and no history of prenatal hydronephrosis. Analysis The associations between large numbers of specific RBUS findings with abnormalities seen on VCUG were investigated. Both multivariate logistic models and a neural network machine learning algorithms were constructed to evaluate the predictive power of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities (including VUR or bladder/urethral findings). Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and area under receiving operating curves (AUROC) of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities were determined. Results A total of 2259 patients with UTI as the indication for imaging were identified. The RBUS was reported as “normal” in 75.0%. On VCUG, any VUR was identified in 41.7%, VUR grade >II in 20.9%, and VUR grade >III in 2.8%. Many individual RBUS findings were significantly associated with VUR on VCUG. Despite these strong univariate associations, multivariate modeling

  4. Subjective and model-estimated reward prediction: association with the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and reward prediction error in a reinforcement learning task.

    PubMed

    Ichikawa, Naho; Siegle, Greg J; Dombrovski, Alexandre; Ohira, Hideki

    2010-12-01

    In this study, we examined whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) is associated with both subjective and objective (model-estimated) reward prediction errors (RPE) per trial in a reinforcement learning task in healthy adults (n=25). The level of RPE was assessed by 1) subjective ratings per trial and by 2) a computational model of reinforcement learning. As results, model-estimated RPE was highly correlated with subjective RPE (r=.82), and the grand-averaged ERP waves based on the trials with high and low model-estimated RPE showed the significant difference only in the time period of the FRN component (p<.05). Regardless of the time course of learning, FRN was associated with both subjective and model-estimated RPEs within subject (r=.47, p<.001; r=.40, p<.05) and between subjects (r=.33, p<.05; r=.41, p<.005) only in the Learnable condition where the internal reward prediction varied enough with a behavior-reward contingency.

  5. Protein charge ladders reveal that the net charge of ALS-linked superoxide dismutase can be different in sign and magnitude from predicted values.

    PubMed

    Shi, Yunhua; Abdolvahabi, Alireza; Shaw, Bryan F

    2014-10-01

    This article utilized "protein charge ladders"-chemical derivatives of proteins with similar structure, but systematically altered net charge-to quantify how missense mutations that cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) affect the net negative charge (Z) of superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD1) as a function of subcellular pH and Zn(2+) stoichiometry. Capillary electrophoresis revealed that the net charge of ALS-variant SOD1 can be different in sign and in magnitude-by up to 7.4 units per dimer at lysosomal pH-than values predicted from standard pKa values of amino acids and formal oxidation states of metal ions. At pH 7.4, the G85R, D90A, and G93R substitutions diminished the net negative charge of dimeric SOD1 by up to +2.29 units more than predicted; E100K lowered net charge by less than predicted. The binding of a single Zn(2+) to mutant SOD1 lowered its net charge by an additional +2.33 ± 0.01 to +3.18 ± 0.02 units, however, each protein regulated net charge when binding a second, third, or fourth Zn(2+) (ΔZ < 0.44 ± 0.07 per additional Zn(2+) ). Both metalated and apo-SOD1 regulated net charge across subcellular pH, without inverting from negative to positive at the theoretical pI. Differential scanning calorimetry, hydrogen-deuterium exchange, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry confirmed that the structure, stability, and metal content of mutant proteins were not significantly affected by lysine acetylation. Measured values of net charge should be used when correlating the biophysical properties of a specific ALS-variant SOD1 protein with its observed aggregation propensity or clinical phenotype.

  6. Predicted Values for Spirometry may Underestimate Long-Standing Asthma Severity

    PubMed Central

    Sposato, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    Background: Asthma may show an accelerated lung function decline. Asthmatics, although having FEV1 and FEV1/VC (and z-scores) higher than the lower limit of normality, may show a significant FEV1 decline when compared to previous measurements. We assessed how many asymptomatic long-standing asthmatics (LSA) with normal lung function showed a significant FEV1 decline when an older FEV1 was taken as reference point. Methods: 46 well-controlled LSA (age: 48.8±12.1; 23 females) with normal FEV1 and FEV1/VC according to GLI2012 references (FEV1: 94.8±10.1%, z-score:-0.38±0.79; FEV1/VC: 79.3±5.2, z-score:-0.15±0.77) were selected. We considered FEV1 decline, calculated by comparing the latest value to one at least five years older or to the highest predicted value measured at 21 years for females and 23 for males. A FEV1 decline >15% or 30 ml/years was regarded as pathological. Results: When comparing the latest FEV1 to an at least 5-year-older one (mean 8.1±1.4 years between 2 measurements), 14 subjects (30.4%) showed a FEV1 decline <5% (mean: -2.2±2.6%), 19 (41.3%) had a FEV1 5-15% change (mean: -9.2±2.5%) and 13 (28.3%) a FEV1 decrease>15% (mean: -18.3±2.4). Subjects with a FEV1 decline>30 ml/year were 28 (60.8%). When using the highest predicted FEV1 as reference point and declines were corrected by subtracting the physiological decrease, 6 (13%) patients showed a FEV1 decline higher than 15%, whereas asthmatics with a FEV1 loss>30 ml/year were 17 (37%). Conclusion: FEV1 decline calculation may show how severe asthma actually is, avoiding a bronchial obstruction underestimation and a possible under-treatment in lots of apparent “well-controlled” LSA with GLI2012-normal-range lung function values. PMID:28144365

  7. Incremental shuttle walk test: Reference values and predictive equation for healthy Indian adults

    PubMed Central

    Agarwal, Bela; Shah, Monal; Andhare, Nilesh; Mullerpatan, Rajani

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Physical inactivity in Indians is leading to an increase in noncommunicable disorders at an early age in life. Early identification and quantification of the lack of physical activity using simple and reliable exercise testing is the need of the hour. The incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) is an externally paced walk test widely used for the evaluation of exercise capacity. Currently the normative values available for clinical reference are generated from Western populations. Hence, the study was conducted to find normative values for the ISWT in healthy Indian adults (17-75 years). Materials and Methods: A convenience sample of 862 subjects was recruited after ethical approval was obtained. All subjects were divided into groups as per age and gender. For age, the grouping was as follows: Group 1: Young adulthood (17-40 years), group 2: Middle adulthood (40-65 years), and group 3: Old adulthood (>65 years). The ISWT was performed as per standard protocol by Sally Singh. Results: The average distance walked were 709.2m,556.4m and 441.3m in females and 807.9 m, 639.6 m and 478.2 m in males in the three respective age groups. Stepwise regression analysis revealed age and gender as key variables correlating with incremental shuttle walk distance (ISWD). The derived predictive equations for males and females may be given as follows: 740.351 - (5.676 × age) + (99.007 × gender). Conclusion: Reference values were generated for healthy Indian adults. Physiological response to the ISWT was shown to be affected by gender and increasing age. Easily measurable variables explained 68% of the variance seen in the test, making the reference equation a relevant part of the evaluation of the ISWT. PMID:26933305

  8. Accuracy of MRI for prediction of response to neo-adjuvant chemotherapy in triple negative breast cancer compared to other subtypes of breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bansal, Gaurav J; Santosh, Divya

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the prediction of response to neo-adjuvant chemotherapy in triple negative (TN) breast cancer, with respect to other subtypes. Materials and Methods: There were a total of 1610 breast cancers diagnosed between March 2009 and August 2014, out of which 82 patients underwent MRI before and after neo-adjuvant chemotherapy but just before surgery. TN cancers were analyzed with respect to others subtypes. Accuracy of MRI for prediction of pathological complete response was compared between different subtypes by obtaining receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 21 was used for all data analysis, with P value of 0.05 as statistically significant. Results: Out of 82 patients, 29 were luminal (HR+/HER2−), 23 were TN (HR−, HER2−), 11 were HER2 positive (HR−, HER2+), and 19 were of hybrid subtype (HR+/HER2+). TN cancers presented as masses on the pre-chemotherapy MRI scan, were grade 3 on histopathology, and showed concentric shrinkage following chemotherapy. TN cancers were more likely to have both imaging and pathological complete response following chemotherapy (P = 0.055) in contrast to luminal cancers, which show residual cancer. ROC curves were constructed for the prediction of pathological complete response with MRI. For the TN subgroup, MR had a sensitivity of 0.745 and specificity of 0.700 (P = 0.035), with an area under curve of 0.745 (95% confidence interval: 0.526–0.965), which was significantly better compared to other subtypes. Conclusion: TN breast cancers present as masses and show concentric shrinkage following chemotherapy. MRI is most accurate in predicting response to chemotherapy in the TN group, compared to others subtypes. MRI underestimates residual disease in luminal cancers. PMID:28104942

  9. The role of negative mood states and consequences of hypersexual behaviours in predicting hypersexuality among university students

    PubMed Central

    Dhuffar, Manpreet K.; Pontes, Halley M.; Griffiths, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims The issue of whether hypersexual behaviours exist among university students is controversial because many of these individuals engage in sexual exploration during their time at university. To date, little is known about the correlates of hypersexual behaviours among university students in the UK. Therefore, the aims of this exploratory study were two-fold. Firstly, to explore and establish the correlates of hypersexual behaviours, and secondly, to investigate whether hypersexuality among university students can be predicted by variables relating to negative mood states (i.e., emotional dysregulation, loneliness, shame, and life satisfaction) and consequences of hypersexual behaviour. Methods Survey data from 165 British university students was analysed using regression analyses. Results The full regression model significantly predicted hypersexual behaviours. However, only a small number of predictor variables (i.e., gender, consequences of hypersexual behaviours, life satisfaction and emotional dysregulation) accounted for the significant unique influence on hypersexual behaviours among the sample. Conclusions The study empirically supported the concept of hypersexual disorder. The implications of these findings are also discussed. PMID:26551908

  10. Negative affectivity and EEG asymmetry interact to predict emotional interference on attention in early school-aged children.

    PubMed

    Solomon, Beylul; O'Toole, Laura; Hong, Melanie; Dennis, Tracy A

    2014-06-01

    Negative affectivity (NA) is a broad construct that has been associated with the development of psychopathologies, such as anxiety, and with exaggerated attention to threatening stimuli. EEG asymmetry reflects biological individual differences in emotional reactivity that may underlie the association between NA and attention to threat. The present study included a sample of 31 five-seven year olds (M age in months=74.39, SD=6.57) to test the hypothesis that greater NA, combined with greater right anterior and posterior asymmetries, predicts increased attention interference following threat stimuli. Children completed an executive attention task which presented task-irrelevant threat (angry) and non-threat (neutral) faces prior to each trial. EEG asymmetry was measured at baseline for anterior, anterior-temporal and posterior scalp regions and child NA was measured via maternal report. As predicted, children showing greater NA and greater right anterior-temporal asymmetry showed more attention interference following angry faces. Additionally, two trend-level effects emerged: children showing greater NA and greater left anterior-temporal asymmetry showed less attention interference following angry faces, and children showing greater NA and greater left posterior asymmetry showed less attention interference, but only following neutral faces. Discussion focuses on the utility of using EEG asymmetry in the study of temperament, attentional biases, and the biological processes by which temperament confers risk for psychopathology.

  11. The Interplay of Concurrent Positive and Negative Interpersonal Events in the Prediction of Daily Negative Affect and Fatigue for Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Finan, P.H.; Okun, M.A.; Kruszewski, D.; Davis, M.C.; Zautra, A.J.; Tennen, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine the interaction of daily concurrent positive interpersonal events (PIE) and negative interpersonal events (NIE) on the daily experience of negative affect and fatigue in a sample of men and women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The blunting hypothesis posits that NIE nullify the beneficial influence of PIE whereas the buffering hypothesis posits that PIE offset the adverse influence of NIE. Participants completed up to 30 consecutive daily diaries in which they reported ratings for fatigue and negative affect, along with the occurrence of PIE and NIE throughout the day. Multilevel modeling was used to examine the interaction of daily PIE and NIE on daily negative affect and fatigue. In support of the blunting hypothesis, on days when NIE were diminished, PIE were associated with a greater reduction in fatigue. In contrast, consistent with the buffering hypothesis, on days when PIE were elevated, NIE were associated with a lesser increase in negative affect. Whereas the main effects of PIE and NIE carried over to the next day, the joint effects of PIE and NIE did not. The clinical utility of assessing the impact of co-occurring PIE and NIE is discussed. PMID:20658831

  12. Predicting late-onset sepsis by routine neonatal screening for colonisation by gram-negative bacteria in neonates at intensive care units: a protocol for a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Harder, Thomas; Seidel, Juliane; Eckmanns, Tim; Weiss, Bettina; Haller, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Hospitals conduct extensive screening procedures to assess colonisation of the body surface of neonates by gram-negative bacteria to avoid complications like late-onset sepsis. However, the benefits of these procedures are controversially discussed. Until now, no systematic review has investigated the value of routine screening for colonisation by gram-negative bacteria in neonates for late-onset sepsis prediction. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review, considering studies of any design that include infants up to an age of 12 months. We will search MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to 2016), reference lists and grey literature. Screening of titles, abstracts and full texts will be conducted by two independent reviewers. We will extract data on study characteristics and study results. Risk of bias will be assessed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) and Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tools. Subgroup analyses are planned according to characteristics of studies, participants, index tests and outcome. For quantitative data synthesis on prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of screening to detect late-onset sepsis will be calculated. If sufficient data are available, we will calculate summary estimates using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics and bivariate models. Applying a risk factor approach, pooled summary estimates will be calculated as relative risk or OR, using fixed-effects and random-effects models. I-squared will be used to assess heterogeneity. All calculations will be performed in Stata V14.1 (College Station, Texas, USA). The results will be used to calculate positive and negative predictive value and number needed to be screened to prevent one case of sepsis. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) will be used to assess certainty in the evidence. The protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and

  13. Role of quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen in predicting inactive carriers and HBsAg seroclearance in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients

    PubMed Central

    Ungtrakul, Teerapat; Sriprayoon, Tassanee; Kusuman, Pattama; Chunnuan, Pitchayachuda; Soonklang, Kamonwan; Sornsamdang, Gaidganok; Auewarakul, Chirayu U.; Tanwandee, Tawesak

    2017-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) as a diagnostic marker for inactive carriers (ICs) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We retrospectively studied 300 HBeAg-negative CHB patients with initial serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) levels <2000 IU/mL. Serum HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were monitored every 6 months for 24 months. ICs were identified as having persistent HBV DNA levels <2000 IU/mL and normal ALT levels, whereas active carriers (ACs) were identified as having HBV DNA levels ≥2000 IU/mL, with or without elevated ALT levels. The serum qHBsAg level was defined at baseline and evaluated as a diagnostic predictor using a receiver-operating characteristic curve. The study group comprised 134 men and 166 women with a median age of 41.5 years. At baseline, 200 ICs displayed lower levels of qHBsAg (1492 IU/mL) compared with 100 ACs (2936 IU/mL) (P = 0.005). The qHBsAg level was independently associated with the IC state and HBsAg seroclearance. Baseline qHBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA levels <2000 IU/mL, when detected simultaneously, allowed for identification of ICs with 41% sensitivity and 72% specificity. Fifteen patients (5%) displayed HBsAg seroclearance after 24 months. A qHBsAg cutoff value of <50 IU/mL provided 100% sensitivity and 92% specificity in predicting HBsAg seroclearance. The qHBsAg level at a single timepoint among HBeAg-negative CHB patients with low HBV DNA levels at baseline was not a predictive marker for ICs; however, it accurately predicted spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance at 24 months. PMID:28353619

  14. Dispositional Pathways to Trust: Self-Esteem and Agreeableness Interact to Predict Trust and Negative Emotional Disclosure.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Megan H; Wood, Joanne V; Holmes, John G

    2017-03-30

    Expressing our innermost thoughts and feelings is critical to the development of intimacy (Reis & Shaver, 1988), but also risks negative evaluation and rejection. Past research suggests that people with high self-esteem are more expressive and self-disclosing because they trust that others care for them and will not reject them (Gaucher et al., 2012). However, feeling good about oneself may not always be enough; disclosure may also depend on how we feel about other people. Drawing on the principles of risk regulation theory (Murray et al., 2006), we propose that agreeableness-a trait that refers to the positivity of interpersonal motivations and behaviors-is a key determinant of trust in a partner's caring and responsiveness, and may work in conjunction with self-esteem to predict disclosure. We examined this possibility by exploring how both self-esteem and agreeableness predict a particularly risky and intimate form of self-disclosure, the disclosure of emotional distress. In 6 studies using correlational, partner-report, and experimental methods, we demonstrate that self-esteem and agreeableness interact to predict disclosure: People who are high in both self-esteem and agreeableness show higher emotional disclosure. We also found evidence that trust mediates this effect. People high in self-esteem and agreeableness are most self-revealing, it seems, because they are especially trusting of their partners' caring. Self-esteem and agreeableness were particularly important for the disclosure of vulnerable emotions (i.e., sadness; Study 5) and disclosures that were especially risky (Study 6). These findings illustrate how dispositional variables can work together to explain behavior in close relationships. (PsycINFO Database Record

  15. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  16. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  17. Incidence rates and deaths of tuberculosis in HIV-negative patients in the United States and Germany as analyzed by new predictive model for infection.

    PubMed

    Ren, Yudong; Ding, Fan; Suo, Siqingaowa; Bu, Ri-e; Zarlenga, Dante S; Ren, Xiaofeng

    2012-01-01

    Incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis (TB) have been decreasing worldwide. Given that TB is a cosmopolitan disease, proper surveillance and evaluation are critical for controlling dissemination. Herein, mathematical modeling was performed in order to: 1) demonstrate a correlation between the incidence of TB in HIV-free patients in the US and Germany, and their corresponding mortality rates; 2) show the utility of the newly developed D-R algorithm for analyzing and predicting the incidence of TB in both countries; and 3) inform us on population death rates due to TB in HIV-negative patients. Using data published by the World Health Organization between 1990 and 2009, the relationship between incidence and mortality that could not be ascribed to HIV infection was evaluated. Using linear, quadratic and cubic curves, we found that a cubic function provided the best fit with the data in both the US (Y = 2.3588+2.2459X+61.1639X(2)-60.104X(3)) and Germany (Y = 1.9271+9.4967X+18.3824X(2)-10.350X(3)) where the correlation coefficient (R) between incidence and mortality was 0.995 and 0.993, respectively. Second, we demonstrated that fitted curves using the D-R model were equal to or better than those generated using the GM(1,1) algorithm as exemplified in the relative values for Sum of Squares of Error, Relative Standard Error, Mean Absolute Deviation, Average Relative Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Finally, future trends using both the D-R and the classic GM(1,1) models predicted a continued decline in infection and mortality rates of TB in HIV-negative patients rates extending to 2015 assuming no changes to diagnosis or treatment regimens are enacted.

  18. Hydrogen atom transfer from iron(II)-tris[2,2'-bi(tetrahydropyrimidine)] to TEMPO: a negative enthalpy of activation predicted by the Marcus equation.

    PubMed

    Mader, Elizabeth A; Larsen, Anna S; Mayer, James M

    2004-07-07

    The transfer of a hydrogen atom from iron(II)-tris[2,2'-bi(tetrahydropyrimidine)], [FeII(H2bip)3]2+, to the stable nitroxide, TEMPO, was studied by stopped-flow UV-vis spectrophotometry. The products are the deprotonated iron(III) complex [FeIII(H2bip)2(Hbip)]2+ and the hydroxylamine, TEMPO-H. This reaction can also be referred to as proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). The equilibrium constant for the reaction is close to 1; thus, the reaction can be driven in either direction. The rate constants for the forward and reverse reactions at 298 K are k1 = 260 +/- 30 M-1 s-1 and k-1 = 150 +/- 20 M-1 s-1. Interestingly, the rate constant for the forward reaction decreases as reaction temperature is increased, implying a negative activation enthalpy: DeltaH1 = -2.7 +/- 0.4 kcal mol-1, DeltaS1 = -57 +/- 8 cal mol-1 K-1. Marcus theory predicts this unusual temperature dependence on the basis of independently measured self-exchange rate constants and equilibrium constants: DeltaHcalcd = -3.5 +/- 0.5 kcal mol-1, DeltaScalcd = -42 +/- 10 cal mol-1 K-1. This result illustrates the value of the Marcus approach for these types of reactions. The dominant contributor to the negative activation enthalpy is the favorable enthalpy of reaction, DeltaH1 degrees = -9.4 +/- 0.6 kcal mol-1, rather than the small negative activation enthalpy for the H-atom self-exchange between the iron complexes.

  19. Prognostic value of HPV E6/E7 mRNA assay in women with negative colposcopy or CIN1 histology result: a follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Benevolo, Maria; Vocaturo, Amina; Caraceni, Donatella; Ciccocioppo, Lucia; Frega, Antonio; Terrenato, Irene; Zappacosta, Roberta; French, Deborah; Rosini, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Pap test, and especially HPV DNA test, identify a large group of women who do not have any clinically relevant lesions, i.e., CIN2+ (Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia grade 2 or worse), but who are at greater risk of getting lesions in the future. The follow up of these women needs new biomarkers with prognostic value. The objective of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of E6/E7 mRNA over-expression assay (PreTect HPV-Proofer, Norchip) for 5 HR-HPV types (16, 18, 31, 33, and 45) for progression to CIN2+ after a negative colposcopy. This prospective study, conducted at four Italian centres, enrolled 673 women with either a negative colposcopy or a negative or CIN1 histology. The clinical end-point was histological confirmation of CIN2+. Women were classified at baseline according to mRNA results and managed according to local colposcopy protocols. At least one conclusive follow-up test was obtained for 347 women (25 months average lapse since recruitment, range 5-74). Only seven CIN2+ were detected during follow up, three among the 82 women positive for mRNA at baseline, two among the 250 negative (Fisher exact test, p = 0.02), and two among the 12 with an invalid test. Absolute CIN2+ risk was 6.7/1,000 person/years in the whole cohort. The absolute CIN2+ risk was 18.4/1,000 person/years and 3.6/1,000 person/years in mRNA-positive and mRNA-negative women, respectively. In conclusion, E6/E7 mRNA over-expression appears to be a good candidate as a prognostic biomarker to manage HR-HPV DNA-positive women with negative colposcopy or histology, particularly in order to decrease follow-up intensity in those who are negative.

  20. Prognostic Value of HPV E6/E7 mRNA Assay in Women with Negative Colposcopy or CIN1 Histology Result: A Follow-Up Study

    PubMed Central

    Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Benevolo, Maria; Vocaturo, Amina; Caraceni, Donatella; Ciccocioppo, Lucia; Frega, Antonio; Terrenato, Irene; Zappacosta, Roberta

    2013-01-01

    Pap test, and especially HPV DNA test, identify a large group of women who do not have any clinically relevant lesions, i.e., CIN2+ (Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia grade 2 or worse), but who are at greater risk of getting lesions in the future. The follow up of these women needs new biomarkers with prognostic value. The objective of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of E6/E7 mRNA over-expression assay (PreTect HPV-Proofer, Norchip) for 5 HR-HPV types (16, 18, 31, 33, and 45) for progression to CIN2+ after a negative colposcopy. This prospective study, conducted at four Italian centres, enrolled 673 women with either a negative colposcopy or a negative or CIN1 histology. The clinical end-point was histological confirmation of CIN2+. Women were classified at baseline according to mRNA results and managed according to local colposcopy protocols. At least one conclusive follow-up test was obtained for 347 women (25 months average lapse since recruitment, range 5–74). Only seven CIN2+ were detected during follow up, three among the 82 women positive for mRNA at baseline, two among the 250 negative (Fisher exact test, p = 0.02), and two among the 12 with an invalid test. Absolute CIN2+ risk was 6.7/1,000 person/years in the whole cohort. The absolute CIN2+ risk was 18.4/1,000 person/years and 3.6/1,000 person/years in mRNA-positive and mRNA-negative women, respectively. In conclusion, E6/E7 mRNA over-expression appears to be a good candidate as a prognostic biomarker to manage HR-HPV DNA-positive women with negative colposcopy or histology, particularly in order to decrease follow-up intensity in those who are negative. PMID:23460880

  1. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-07

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  2. Predictive value of inflammatory markers for irrigation and debridement of acute TKA infection.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Louis S; Abdel, Matthew P; Hanssen, Arlen D

    2013-06-01

    The roles of C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) are well established in the diagnosis of total joint infection. However, it is not entirely clear what value preoperative CRP and ESR have in predicting outcomes following irrigation and debridement with insert exchange for acute hematogenous total knee arthroplasty infection. The total joint registry at the authors' institution was reviewed to identify all patients who underwent irrigation and debridement with insert exchange for a diagnosis of acute hematogenous infection of a primary total knee arthroplasty. Patient medical records were then reviewed for preoperative white blood cell count and CRP and ESR levels; interval from symptom onset to surgery; infecting organism; and any additional surgery for infection. Average patient age was 72 years (range, 51-91 years). Forty-four patients were men and 26 were women. Mean follow-up was 54 months (range, 12-176 months). Seventy-two procedures (69 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 20 (28%) additional procedures for infection were performed and were classified as treatment failures. Average CRP was 173.7 mg/L in the successful group and 159.0 mg/L in the failed group (P=.31). Mean ESR at the time of irrigation and debridement with insert exchange was 61.3 mm/hr in both groups (P=.49). Although CRP and ESR are well established in the diagnosis of infection, no role currently exists for them in predicting the outcomes of irrigation and debridement with insert exchange for the treatment of acute hematogenous total knee arthroplasty infection.

  3. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  4. The value of using feasibility models in systematic conservation planning to predict landholder management uptake.

    PubMed

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D; Evans, Megan C; Mills, Morena

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders' willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders' decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best-supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost-effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost-effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost-efficient and effective manner.

  5. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-01-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke. PMID:28167816

  6. Value of echocardiography for stroke and mortality prediction following coronary artery bypass grafting.

    PubMed

    Kluck, Orit; Berman, Marius; Stamler, Alon; Sahar, Gideon; Kogan, Alexander; Porat, Eyal; Sagie, Alexander

    2007-02-01

    There are known clinical and laboratory predictors for stroke and death following CABG. The aim of this study was to determine if transthoracic echocardiographic findings prior to CABG have additional predictive value for occurrence of perioperative cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and death. The files of patients who underwent CABG between January 2002 and November 2004, with perioperative echocardiographic assessment were reviewed. Echocardiographic variables examined included LV size, function and hypertrophy, mitral annulus calcification (MAC) and aortic valve calcification (AVC). Patients in whom post-CABG stroke or death was documented were compared with those without these endpoints. Of the 572 patients who met the study criteria, 33 (5.8%) had a neurological event and 26 (4.5%) died, four after a major stroke. One hundred and sixty-seven patients had MAC and 228 AVC. On multivariate analysis, risk factors for stroke were previous stroke (OR=2.91 CI 1.179-7.24; P<0.005), renal failure (OR=2.48 CI 1.039-5.95; P<0.001) and older age (OR=1.60 CI 0.971-2.63; P<0.001); risk factors for death were perioperative insertion of intra-aortic balloon pump (OR=33.7 CI 11.38-100; P<0.001) and peripheral vascular disease (OR=3.89 CI 1.32-11.45; P<0.001). Medically treated dyslipidemia was protective factor. LV hypertrophy significantly predicts stroke post-CABG by univariate analysis (P=0.02). There was no significant correlation between AVC and MAC with stroke, although death was slightly increased in patients with MAC (44% vs. 29.2%, P=0.114).

  7. Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies and their value for predicting responses to biologic agents: a review.

    PubMed

    Martin-Mola, Emilio; Balsa, Alejandro; García-Vicuna, Rosario; Gómez-Reino, Juan; González-Gay, Miguel Angel; Sanmartí, Raimon; Loza, Estíbaliz

    2016-08-01

    Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs) play an important pathogenic role both at the onset and during the disease course. These antibodies precede the clinical appearance of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and are associated with a less favorable prognosis, both clinically and radiologically. The objective of this work was to conduct a comprehensive review of studies published through September 2015 of ACPAs' role as a predictor of the therapeutic response to the biological agents in RA patients. The review also includes summary of the biology and detection of ACPAs as well as ACPAs in relation to joint disease and CV disease and the possible role of seroconversion. The reviews of studies examining TNF inhibitors and tocilizumab yielded negative results. In the case of rituximab, the data indicated a greater probability of clinical benefit in ACPA(+) patients versus ACPA(-) patients, as has been previously described for rheumatoid factor. Nonetheless, the effect is discreet and heterogeneous. Another drug that may have greater effectiveness in ACPA(+) patients is abatacept. Some studies have suggested that the drug is more efficient in ACPA(+) patients and that those patients show greater drug retention. In a subanalysis of the AMPLE trial, patients with very high ACPA titers who were treated with abatacept had a statistically significant response compared to patients with lower titers. In summary, the available studies suggest that the presence of or high titers of ACPA may predict a better response to rituximab and/or abatacept. Evidence regarding TNFi and tocilizumab is lacking. However, there is a lack of studies with appropriate designs to demonstrate that some drugs are superior to others for ACPA(+) patients.

  8. Predictive value of bovine follicular components as markers of oocyte developmental potential.

    PubMed

    Matoba, Satoko; Bender, Katrin; Fahey, Alan G; Mamo, Solomon; Brennan, Lorraine; Lonergan, Patrick; Fair, Trudee

    2014-01-01

    The follicle is a unique micro-environment within which the oocyte can develop and mature to a fertilisable gamete. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of a panel of follicular parameters, including intrafollicular steroid and metabolomic profiles and theca, granulosa and cumulus cell candidate gene mRNA abundance, to predict the potential of bovine oocytes to develop to the blastocyst stage in vitro. Individual follicles were dissected from abattoir ovaries, carefully ruptured under a stereomicroscope and the oocyte was recovered and individually processed through in vitro maturation, fertilisation and culture. The mean (±s.e.m.) follicular concentrations of testosterone (62.8±4.8 ngmL(-1)), progesterone (616.8±31.9 ngmL(-1)) and oestradiol (14.4±2.4 ngmL(-1)) were not different (P>0.05) between oocytes that formed (competent) or failed to form (incompetent) blastocysts. Principal-component analysis of the quantified aqueous metabolites in follicular fluid showed differences between oocytes that formed blastocysts and oocytes that degenerated; l-alanine, glycine and l-glutamate were positively correlated and urea was negatively correlated with blastocyst formation. Follicular fluid associated with competent oocytes was significantly lower in palmitic acid (P=0.023) and total fatty acids (P=0.031) and significantly higher in linolenic acid (P=0.036) than follicular fluid from incompetent oocytes. Significantly higher (P<0.05) transcript abundance of LHCGR in granulosa cells, ESR1 and VCAN in thecal cells and TNFAIP6 in cumulus cells was associated with competent compared with incompetent oocytes.

  9. Use of neural networks for prediction of vapor/liquid equilibrium K values for light-hydrocarbon mixtures

    SciTech Connect

    Habiballah, W.A.; Startzman, R.A.; Barrufet, M.A.

    1996-05-01

    Equilibrium ratios play a fundamental role in the understanding of phase behavior of hydrocarbon mixtures. They are important in predicting compositional changes under varying temperature and pressure in reservoirs, surface separators, and production and transportation facilities. In particular, they are critical for reliable and successful compositional reservoir simulation. This paper presents a new approach for predicting K values with neural networks (NN`s). The method is applied to binary and multicomponent mixtures, and K-value prediction accuracy is on the order of the traditional methods. However, computing speed is significantly faster.

  10. The diagnostic value of the neutrophil left shift in predicting inflammatory and infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Seebach, J D; Morant, R; Rüegg, R; Seifert, B; Fehr, J

    1997-05-01

    The use of neutrophil left-shift parameters in the diagnosis of inflammatory and infective disease (ID) was evaluated. The level of C-reactive protein (CRP), currently the best quantitative parameter of inflammation, was used as the gold standard. Of 292 patients, 230 (79%) had a level of CRP of 1.0 mg/dL or greater and were classified as having inflammation, whereas 62 (21%) had normal levels. The neutrophil band count in each patient was determined by microscopic examination of 200 WBCs. The diagnostic value of the band count as an indicator for ID was evaluated in comparison to the WBC count, the neutrophil count, and the left-shift indicators of two automated hematologic analyzers, H*1 Technicon (Bayer Technicon Instruments, Tarrytown, NY) and Coulter MAX M (Coulter Electronics, Hialeah, Fla). When receiver operating characteristics were used, the band count was superior to the immature to total neutrophil count (I/T) ratio, the total WBC count, and the neutrophil count. The sensitivity and specificity in identifying ID at designated cutoff points were as follows: band count of 20% or greater of total WBC count (53% and 79%, respectively), I/T ratio of 0.25 or greater (59% and 63%), total WBC count of 9.6 x 10(6)/mL or greater (68% and 56%), and neutrophil count of 8.0 x 10(6)/mL or greater (60% and 58%). The performance of the H*1 Technicon left-shift flag was similar but slightly inferior to the band count (sensitivity, 44%; specificity, 79%), whereas the Coulter MAX M flags had a clearly higher sensitivity (79%) and lower specificity (53%). In addition, microscopic evaluation to determine the presence of reactive morphologic changes in neutrophils, such as toxic granules, Döhle bodies, and cytoplasmic vacuoles, had a high sensitivity (80%) but a low specificity (58%) in predicting ID. The diagnostic value of both microscopic and automated neutrophil left-shift parameters as indicators for ID is limited. Morphologic changes in neutrophils, however, either

  11. Generalized approach for using unbiased symmetric metrics with negative values: normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor

    SciTech Connect

    Gustafson, William I.; Yu, Shaocai

    2012-10-23

    Unbiased symmetric metrics provide a useful measure to quickly compare two datasets, with similar interpretations for both under and overestimations. Two examples include the normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor. However, the original formulations of these metrics are only valid for datasets with positive means. This paper presents a methodology to use and interpret the metrics with datasets that have negative means. The updated formulations give identical results compared to the original formulations for the case of positive means, so researchers are encouraged to use the updated formulations going forward without introducing ambiguity.

  12. Resistive index in febrile urinary tract infections: predictive value of renal outcome.

    PubMed

    Ozçelik, Gül; Polat, Tuğçin Bora; Aktaş, Seniha; Cetinkaya, Feyzullah; Fetinkaya, Feyzullah

    2004-02-01

    In the absence of specific symptomatology in children, the early diagnosis of acute pyelonephritis is a challenge, particularly during infancy. In an attempt to differentiate acute pyelonephritis from lower urinary tract infection (UTI), we measured intrarenal resistive index (RI). We evaluated its ability to predict renal involvement as assessed by dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scintigraphy. In total 157 patients admitted to the pediatric department of the Sişli Etfal Hospital with clinical signs of febrile UTI were included in the study. The children were divided into groups according to their age at the time of ultrasonography (US). RI was measured from the renal arteries with Doppler US in the first 72 h in all 157 children. Renal involvement was assessed by (99m)Tc-DMSA scintigraphy in the first 7 days after admission. The examination was repeated at least 6 months later if the first result was abnormal. All available patients with an abnormal scintigraphy underwent voiding cystourethrography 4-6 weeks after the acute infection. All patients with vesicoureteral reflux and scarred kidneys were excluded from the study. DMSA scintigraphy demonstrated abnormal changes in 114 of 157 children and was normal in the remaining 43 children. Of these 114 children, 104 underwent repeat scintigraphy, of whom 77 showed partially or totally reversible lesion(s). Of these 77 children, 17 children (22%) with vesicoureteral reflux were excluded. Thus, we compared the 43 children with lower UTI with the 60 children with definite acute pyelonephritis at admission. Kidneys with changes of acute pyelonephritis had a mean RI of 0.744+/-0.06 in infants, 0.745+/-0.03 in preschool children, and 0.733+/-0.09 in patients of school age with upper UTI. However, the mean RI was 0.703+/-0.06 in infants, 0.696+/-0.1 in preschool children, and 0.671+/-0.09 in school-aged patients with lower UTI. The mean RI values were significantly higher in patients with upper UTI ( P<0.001). There was a

  13. Clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone and inhibin B in prediction of ovarian response in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fan; Liu, Xiao-Ling; Rong, Nan; Huang, Xiao-Wen

    2017-02-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (INHB) in predicting the ovarian response of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of 120 PCOS patients were enrolled and divided into three groups in terms of the ovarian response: a low-response group (n=36), a normal-response group (n=44), and a high-response group (n=40). The serum AMH and INHB levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), and estradiol (E2) levels were determined by chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The correlation of the serum AMH and INHB levels with other indicators was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to analyze the prediction of ovarian response by AMH and INHB. The results showed that there were significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), FSH, total gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), LH, E2, and antral follicle counts (AFCs) between the groups (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were increased significantly with the ovarian response of PCOS patients increasing (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were negatively correlated with the age, BMI, FSH level, Gn, and E2 levels (P<0.05). They were positively correlated with the LH levels and AFCs (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of serum AMH and INHB in prediction of a low ovarian response showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the serum AMH level was 0.817, with a cut-off value of 1.29 ng/mL. The sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% and 79.6%, respectively. The AUC value of serum INHB was 0.674, with a cut-off value of 38.65 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 50.7% and 74.5%, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed when the serum AMH and INHB levels were used to predict a high ovarian response, the AUC value of the serum AMH level was 0.742, with a cut-off value of 2.84 ng/mL, and

  14. The Value of Conditioning Data for Prediction of Conservative Solute Transport at the Oyster Site, Virginia

    SciTech Connect

    Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2001-12-01

    The large and diverse body of subsurface characterization data generated at a field research site near Oyster, VA provides a unique opportunity to test various approaches for characterizing field-scale heterogeneity in aquifer properties and modeling subsurface flow and transport. We are using observed bromide breakthrough curves (BTCs) from an injection experiment conducted in 1999 as a baseline for evaluating data worth and model effectiveness. BTCs are available at 24 multi-level samplers, eight ports each (192 total sampling points). Each BTC is a time series of measured concentrations, spaced two to twelve hours apart over the seven-day field experiment. A detailed model, implemented using the RAFT code, is used to simulate breakthrough curves at the sampler locations. This model requires the specification of spatial distributions of hydrologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity. This in turn involves the integration of data of various types and amounts into a conceptual model framework. The number of possible conceptualizations and methods for data integration is nearly limitless, and each gives rise to a different prediction of bromide breakthrough at sampling points. To evaluate the relative appropriateness of each approach, and the value of the data utilized therein, we simulate BTCs at each sampler location and quantitatively compare them to the observed BTCs.

  15. Predictive value of thrombocytopaenia in the diagnosis of dengue infection in outpatient settings.

    PubMed

    Tong, S F; Aziz, N A; Chin, G L

    2007-12-01

    Thrombocytopaenia is often relied upon as an important criterion for the diagnosis of dengue infection among patients presenting with an acute non-specific febrile illness. This study was aimed to assess usefulness of thrombocytopaenia in the diagnosis of acute dengue virus infection. This was a clinic based prospective cohort study from May to November 2003. Consecutive patients presenting with acute non-specific febrile illness of less than two weeks were selected from two urban primary care centres. We did full blood count examination (FBC) on the day of visit and dengue serology on day five of illness for all patients enrolled. We repeated the FBC examination for patients who had initial normal platelet counts. Thrombocytopaenia was defined as platelet count < 150 X 10(9)/L. Eighty-seven patients enrolled in the study. Complete data was available for 73 patients. The prevalence of acute dengue virus infection was 27.6%. The sensitivity and specificity were 88% and 71% respectively. The likelihood of acute dengue infection in the presence of thrombocytopaenia was 2.52 and likelihood of not having dengue infection in normal platelet count patients was 5.22. Thrombocytopaenia has fair predictive value in diagnosing acute dengue virus infection. It was more useful to exclude than to diagnose dengue infection.

  16. Immunohistochemical Evaluation of Hormone Receptors with Predictive Value in Mammary Carcinomas

    PubMed Central

    Pleşan, D.M.; Georgescu, Claudia Valentina; Ciobotea, Stela; Pătrană, Nicoleta; Mitroi, Laura; Pleşan, C.

    2009-01-01

    AIMS. Immunohistochemical evaluation of hormone receptors (ER, PR) and correlation of immunohistochemical and morpho-clinical data. METHOD. The study was performed on paraffin-embedded and HE stained tissues originating from 100 cases of invasive mammary carcinoma. Monoclonal antibodies anti-estrogen and anti progesterone receptors were used for the immunohistochemical study. The detection system was EnVision HRP and the visualization system was 3-3’ diaminobenzidine tetrahydrochloride (DAB). The evaluation of the result was performed using the Allred score. REZULTS. The majority of the studied cases (57%) expressed both types of hormone receptors and in 32% of the cases the hormone receptors were completely absent. The rest of the cases presented a heterogeneous phenotype: 7% presented the ER-/PR+ type and 4%, the ER+/PR- type. Compared with the classical phenotype (ER+/PR-), ER+/PR- tumors were more frequent at patients over 50 years. The tumors with ER+/PR- were larger than the ER+/PR+ and they were of the invasive ductal carcinoma type with an Allred score for ER under 6. CONCLUSION. The predictive value is amplified when the ER status is correlated with the PR status because the heterogeneous phenotypes are identified, especially the ER+/PR- phenotype which have an aggressive behavior and the lowest response to tamoxifen therapy. PMID:24778819

  17. Cut-Off Values of Visceral Adiposity to Predict NAFLD in Brazilian Obese Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Grotti Clemente, Ana Paula; Molin Netto, Bárbara Dal; Ganen, Aline di Piano; Tock, Lian; Arisa Caranti, Danielle; de Mello, Marco Túlio; Tufik, Sergio; Dâmaso, Ana R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. The present study aimed at determining cut-off points of visceral fat to predict NAFLD and analyzed metabolic disorders of obese adolescents. Methods. Cross-sectional study involved 165 obese adolescents ranged in age from 15 to 19 years. Glycemia, hepatic transaminases, lipid profile, and insulin resistance were analyzed. Visceral and subcutaneous fat were measured by ultrasound and body composition by plesthysmography. Results. The NAFLD adolescents had significantly higher values for body mass, BMI-for-age, BMI, total fat, waist circumference, and visceral fat when compared with non-NAFLD obese adolescents in both genders. Moreover, there were significant positive correlations between visceral fat with the variables BMI-for-age (r = 0.325,), TG (r = 0.277), AST (r = 0.509), ALT (r = 0.519), WC (r = 0.390), and visceral/subcutaneous ratio (r = 0.790) for NAFLD group. Total fat, triglycerides, and visceral fat were the independent predictors to NAFLD. Analysis of the ROC curves revealed cut-off points of visceral fat of 4.47 cm for girls and 4.21 cm for boys. Conclusions. The results may suggest that abdominal ultrasonography procedure may be a safe alternative method of assessing visceral adiposity aiming to be considered to the development of preventive and treatment strategies in obese individuals. This clinial trial is registered with ClinicalTrial.gov (NCT01358773). PMID:24381750

  18. Bullying and cyberbullying: overlapping and predictive value of the co-occurrence.

    PubMed

    del Rey, Rosario; Elipe, Paz; Ortega-Ruiz, Rosario

    2012-11-01

    Several studies show certain co-occurrence of the traditional bullying and the cyberbullying. However, the results about relation and homogeneity among the roles of each of them are not unanimous. The present study intends to advance in the knowledge about the above-mentioned co-occurrence by exploring the dimensions of victimization and traditional aggression and cyber-victimization and cyber-aggression and by identifying its eventual directionality. A short-term longitudinal design was developed. The sample was formed by 274 adolescents, aging 12 to 18 years-old, belonging to 2 schools of Andalusia (South of Spain). In order to value the impact of bullying and cyberbullying the European Cyberbullying Intervention Project Questionnaire (ECIPQ) and the European Bullying Intervention Project Questionnaire (EBIPQ) were used. The results show important simultaneity among both phenomena and suggest that although in cyberbullying -cyber-victimization and cyber-aggression- may be predicted because of previous involvement of the subject in traditional bullying, on the contrary it does not happen. In addition, previous victimization is a risk factor for traditional bullying and for cyberbullying. Results are discussed in relation to the process and socio-group dynamics arising from the bullying and cyberbullying phenomena, and in terms of their prevention.

  19. Predictive but not emotional value of Pavlovian stimuli leads to pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer.

    PubMed

    Jeffs, Stephens; Duka, Theodora

    2017-03-15

    Reward-predictive stimuli augment instrumental reward-seeking in humans, an effect denoted Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT), but the role of differential reward value of these stimuli and of emotional conditioned responses in PIT remains unknown. Fifty one participants experienced a Pavlovian phase that associated two stimuli with either 10p (CS10) or 50p (CS50). Next, participants underwent instrumental training for two responses reinforced with either 10p or 50p. Finally, the transfer phase continued as had instrumental training, now in the presence of the Pavlovian stimuli. Participants were dichotomised as aware/unaware according to their expectancy awareness of the CS→outcome associations. Only aware participants demonstrated PIT (increased choice and number of responses on the 10p and 50p response key in the presence of CS10 and CS50 respectively), yet both aware and unaware groups rated the 50p stimulus as more pleasant than the 10p stimulus. These findings suggest that expectancy of reward is necessary for PIT; however, emotional conditioned responses appear not sufficient to influence PIT. Future research should attempt to manipulate emotional conditioned responses in a PIT context, to test the sufficiency of reward expectancy in PIT.

  20. From 'solution shop' model to 'focused factory' in hospital surgery: increasing care value and predictability.

    PubMed

    Cook, David; Thompson, Jeffrey E; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Visscher, Sue L; Dearani, Joseph A; Roger, Veronique L; Borah, Bijan J

    2014-05-01

    The full-service US hospital has been described organizationally as a "solution shop," in which medical problems are assumed to be unstructured and to require expert physicians to determine each course of care. If universally applied, this model contributes to unwarranted variation in care, which leads to lower quality and higher costs. We purposely disrupted the adult cardiac surgical practice that we led at Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minnesota, by creating a "focused factory" model (characterized by a uniform approach to delivering a limited set of high-quality products) within the practice's solution shop. Key elements of implementing the new model were mapping the care process, segmenting the patient population, using information technology to communicate clearly defined expectations, and empowering nonphysician providers at the bedside. Using a set of criteria, we determined that the focused-factory model was appropriate for 67 percent of cardiac surgical patients. We found that implementation of the model reduced resource use, length-of-stay, and cost. Variation was markedly reduced, and outcomes were improved. Assigning patients to different care models increases care value and the predictability of care process, outcomes, and costs while preserving (in a lesser clinical footprint) the strengths of the solution shop. We conclude that creating a focused-factory model within a solution shop, by applying industrial engineering principles and health information technology tools and changing the model of work, is very effective in both improving quality and reducing costs.

  1. Predictive Value of GJB2 Mutation Status for Hearing Outcomes of Pediatric Cochlear Implantation.

    PubMed

    Abdurehim, Yasin; Lehmann, Alexandre; Zeitouni, Anthony G

    2017-03-01

    Objective To systematically review and quantify current evidence regarding the association of GJB2 mutation status with outcomes of pediatric cochlear implantation. Data Sources PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for "GJB2,"pediatric hearing loss," and "cochlear implantation" and their synonyms, with no language restrictions, until December 2, 2015. Review Methods Studies were included that investigated the status of GJB2 mutation and its predictive value for outcomes of pediatric cochlear implantation. Speech recognition scores, Infant-Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale, Speech Intelligibility Rating, and Categorized Auditory Performance were pooled using weighted mean differences, and a 95% confidence interval. Results Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The differences between GJB2-related deafness and non- GJB2-related deafness due to unidentified causes and other types of genetic deafness without additional disabilities were not statistically significant ( P = .15 and P = .30, respectively); however, the difference between GJB2-related deafness and acquired hearing loss due to environmental etiologies was statistically significant and favored GJB2-related deafness ( P = .03). Conclusion GJB2-related deafness leads to significantly better cochlear implantation outcomes when compared with acquired deafness caused by environmental etiologies. However, GJB2 mutation is not associated with a significantly better prognosis when compared with those whose deafness results from either nonsyndromic hearing loss of unknown origin or other types of genetic mutations in the absence of other neurologic deficits.

  2. Molecular value predictions: associations with beef quality, carcass, production, behavior, and efficiency phenotypes in Brahman cattle.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, P L; Cafe, L M; McIntyre, B L; Geesink, G H; Thompson, J M; Polkinghorne, R; Pethick, D W; Robinson, D L

    2013-12-01

    Data from 2 previously published experiments, New South Wales (NSW; n = 161) and Western Australia (WA; n = 135), were used to test molecular value predictions (MVP), generated from commercially available gene markers, on economically important traits of Bos indicus (Brahman) cattle. Favorable tenderness MVP scores were associated with reduced shear force values of strip loin (LM) steaks aged 7 d from Achilles-hung carcasses (P ≤ 0.06), as well as steaks aged 1 (P ≤ 0.08) or 7 d (P ≤ 0.07) from carcasses hung from the pelvis (tenderstretch). Favorable tenderness MVP scores were also associated with improved consumer tenderness ratings for strip loin steaks aged 7 d and either Achilles hung (P ≤ 0.006) or tenderstretched (P ≤ 0.07). Similar results were observed in NSW for rump (top butt; gluteus medius) steaks, with favorable tenderness MVP scores associated with more tender (P = 0.006) and acceptable (P = 0.008) beef. Favorable marbling MVP scores were associated with improved (P ≤ 0.021) marbling scores and intramuscular fat (IMF) content in the NSW experiment, despite low variation in marbling in the Brahman cattle. For the WA experiment, however, there were no (P ≥ 0.71) relationships between marbling MVP and marbling scores or IMF content. Although residual (net) feed intake (RFI) was not associated (P = 0.63) with the RFI (feed efficiency) MVP, the RFI MVP was adversely associated with LM tenderness and acceptability of 7-d-aged Achilles-hung carcasses in NSW (P ≤ 0.031) and WA (P ≤ 0.037). Some other relationships and trends were noted between the MVP and the other traits, but few reached statistical significance, and none were evident in both experiments. Results from this study provide evidence to support the use of the tenderness MVP. The value of the marbling MVP, which was associated with marbling in only 1 herd, warrants further evaluation; however, there appears to be no evidence to support use of the RFI MVP in Brahman cattle.

  3. Mismatch Negativity is a Sensitive and Predictive Biomarker of Perceptual Learning During Auditory Cognitive Training in Schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Perez, Veronica B; Tarasenko, Melissa; Miyakoshi, Makoto; Pianka, Sean T; Makeig, Scott D; Braff, David L; Swerdlow, Neal R; Light, Gregory A

    2017-03-22

    Computerized cognitive training is gaining empirical support for use in the treatment of schizophrenia (SZ). Although cognitive training is efficacious for SZ at a group level when delivered in sufficiently intensive doses (eg, 30-50 h), there is variability in individual patient response. The identification of biomarkers sensitive to the neural systems engaged by cognitive training interventions early in the course of treatment could facilitate personalized assignment to treatment. This proof-of-concept study was conducted to determine whether mismatch negativity (MMN), an event-related potential index of auditory sensory discrimination associated with cognitive and psychosocial functioning, would predict gains in auditory perceptual learning and exhibit malleability after initial exposure to the early stages of auditory cognitive training in SZ. MMN was assessed in N=28 SZ patients immediately before and after completing 1 h of a speeded time-order judgment task of two successive frequency-modulated sweeps (Posit Science 'Sound Sweeps' exercise). All SZ patients exhibited the expected improvements in auditory perceptual learning over the 1 h training period (p<0.001), consistent with previous results. Larger MMN amplitudes recorded both before and after the training exercises were associated with greater gains in auditory perceptual learning (r=-0.5 and r=-0.67, respectively, p's<0.01). Significant pretraining vs posttraining MMN amplitude reduction was also observed (p<0.02). MMN is a sensitive index of the neural systems engaged in a single session of auditory cognitive training in SZ. These findings encourage future trials of MMN as a biomarker for individual assignment, prediction, and/or monitoring of patient response to procognitive interventions, including auditory cognitive training in SZ.Neuropsychopharmacology advance online publication, 22 March 2017; doi:10.1038/npp.2017.25.

  4. The clinical epidemiology of depression in palliative care and the predictive value of somatic symptoms: cross-sectional survey with four-week follow-up.

    PubMed

    Rayner, Lauren; Lee, William; Price, Annabel; Monroe, Barbara; Sykes, Nigel; Hansford, Penny; Higginson, Irene J; Hotopf, Matthew

    2011-04-01

    This cross-sectional survey aimed to determine the prevalence and remission of depression in patients receiving palliative care and to ascertain the predictive value of somatic symptoms in making the diagnosis. Three hundred consecutive patients were interviewed within one week of their initial assessment by a specialist nurse at a palliative care service with in-patient and homecare facilities in south London, UK. Depression was assessed using the PRIME-MD PHQ-9. Presence of somatic symptoms (fatigue, sleep disturbance, poor appetite) was determined using the EORTC-QLQ-C30 quality of life questionnaire. Fifty-eight (19.3% [15.3 to 23.3]) patients met criteria for Major Depressive Disorder; 109 (36.3% [32.3 to 40.3]) met criteria for 'Any depressive syndrome'. Patients with Major Depressive Disorder were more likely to be male, and to have non-malignant disease, pain, poor performance status and desire for an early death. Of those patients with Major Depressive Disorder at baseline, 69% (27/39) had remitted four weeks later. Of those not depressed at baseline, 11% (19/174) met criteria for depression at follow-up. The positive predictive values of sleep disturbance, poor appetite and fatigue were low (<24%), whereas the negative predictive values of these symptoms were high (>89%). The high prevalence of depression in palliative care attests to the need for psychological assessment and support. Depression in patients receiving palliative care is unstable, suggesting that symptoms should be carefully monitored.

  5. Medico-economic impact of MSKCC non-sentinel node prediction nomogram for ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancers

    PubMed Central

    Guillot, Eugénie; Feron, Jean-Guillaume; Fourchotte, Virginie; Alran, Séverine; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Cottu, Paul; Lerebours, Florence; Stevens, Denise; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Sigal-Zafrani, Brigitte; Campana, François; Rouzier, Roman; Reyal, Fabien

    2017-01-01

    Background Avoiding axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for invasive breast cancers with isolated tumor cells or micrometastatic sentinel node biopsy (SNB) could decrease morbidity with minimal clinical significance. Purpose The aim of this study is to simulate the medico-economic impact of the routine use of the MSKCC non-sentinel node (NSN) prediction nomogram for ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients. Methods We studied 1036 ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a metastatic SNB. All had a complementary ALND. For each patient, we calculated the probability of the NSN positivity using the MSKCC nomogram. After validation of this nomogram in the population, we described how the patients’ characteristics spread as the threshold value changed. Then, we performed an economic simulation study to estimate the total cost of caring for patients treated according to the MSKCC predictive nomogram results. Results A 0.3 threshold discriminate the type of sentinel node (SN) metastases: 98.8% of patients with pN0(i+) and 91.6% of patients with pN1(mic) had a MSKCC score under 0.3 (false negative rate = 6.4%). If we use the 0.3 threshold for economic simulation, 43% of ALND could be avoided, reducing the costs of caring by 1 051 980 EUROS among the 1036 patients. Conclusion We demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of using the MSKCC NSN prediction nomogram by avoiding ALND for the pN0(i+) or pN1(mic) ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a MSKCC score of less than or equal to 0.3. PMID:28241044

  6. Trends in electron-ion dissociative recombination of benzene analogs with functional group substitutions: Negative Hammett σpara values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, David; Lawson, Patrick Andrew; Adams, Nigel; Dotan, Itzhak

    2014-06-01

    An in-depth study of the effects of functional group substitution on benzene's electron-ion dissociative recombination (e-IDR) rate constant has been conducted. The e-IDR rate constants for benzene, biphenyl, toluene, ethylbenzene, anisole, phenol, and aniline have been measured using a Flowing Afterglow equipped with an electrostatic Langmuir probe (FALP). These measurements have been made over a series of temperatures from 300 to 550 K. A relationship between the Hammett σpara values for each compound and rate constant has indicated a trend in the e-IDR rate constants and possibly in their temperature dependence data. The Hammett σpara value is a method to describe the effect a functional group substituted to a benzene ring has upon the reaction rate constant.

  7. Pediatric Hodgkin Lymphoma: Predictive value of interim 18F-FDG PET/CT in therapy response assessment.

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Cristina; Niccoli Asabella, Artor; Merenda, Nunzio; Altini, Corinna; Fanelli, Margherita; Muggeo, Paola; De Leonardis, Francesco; Perillo, Teresa; Santoro, Nicola; Rubini, Giuseppe

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the prognostic value of interim F-FDG PET/CT (PET-2) in pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (pHL), evaluating both visual and semiquantitative analysis.Thirty pHL patients (age ≤16) underwent serial F-FDG PET/CT: at baseline (PET-0), after 2 cycles of chemotherapy (PET-2) and at the end of first-line chemotherapy (PET-T). PET response assessment was carried out visually according to the Deauville Score (DS), as well as semiquantitatively by using the semiquantitative parameters reduction from PET-0 to PET-2 (ΔΣSUVmax0-2, ΔΣSUVmean0-2). Final clinical response assessment (outcome) at the end of first-line chemotherapy was the criterion standard, considering patients as responders (R) or nonresponders (NR). Disease status was followed identifying patients with absence or relapsed/progression disease (mean follow-up: 24 months, range 3-78).Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy of visual and semiquantitative assessment were calculated; furthermore, Fisher exact test was performed to evaluate the association between both visual and semiquantitative assessment and outcome at the end of the first-line chemotherapy. The prognostic capability of PET-2 semiquantitative parameters was calculated by ROC analysis and expressed as area under curve (AUC). Finally, progression-free survival (PFS) was analyzed according to PET-2 results based on the 5-point scale and semiquantitative criteria, using the Kaplan-Meier method.Based on the outcome at the end of first-line chemotherapy, 5 of 30 patients were NR, the remnant 25 of 30 were R. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of visual analysis were 60%,72%,30%,90%,70%; conversely, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of semiquantitative assessment were 80%, 92%, 66.7%, 95.8%, 90%. The highest AUC resulted for ΔΣSUVmax0-2 (0.836; cut-off <12.5; sensitivity 80%; specificity 91%). The association between ΔΣSUVmax0-2 and outcome at

  8. Negative Ion Photoelectron Spectroscopy Confirms the Prediction that D-3h Carbontrioxide (CO3) Has a Singlet Ground State

    DOE PAGES

    Hrovat, David; Hou, Gao-Lei; Chen, Bo; ...

    2015-11-13

    The CO3 radical anion (CO3•–) has been formed by electrospraying carbonate dianion (CO32–) into the gas phase. The negative ion photoelectron (NIPE) spectrum of CO3•– shows that, unlike trimethylenemethane [C(CH2)3], carbontrioxide (CO3) has a singlet ground state. From the NIPE spectrum, the electron affinity of CO3 was determined to be EA = 4.06 ± 0.03 eV, and the singlet-triplet energy difference was found to be ΔEST = - 17.8 ± 0.9 kcal/mol. B3LYP, CCSD(T), and CASPT2 calculations all find that the two lowest triplet states of CO3 are very close in energy, a prediction that is confirmed by the relativemore » intensities of the bands in the NIPE spectrum of CO3•–. The 560 cm-1 vibrational progression, seen in the low energy region of the triplet band, enables the identification of the lowest, Jahn-Teller-distorted, triplet state as 3A1, in which both unpaired electrons reside in σ MOs, rather than 3A2, in which one unpaired electron occupies the b2 σ MO, and the other occupies the b1 π MO.« less

  9. RETRACTED ARTICLE: Personal distress, but not sympathy, predicts the negative influence of bystanders on responding to an emergency.

    PubMed

    2015-06-01

    At the request of the authors this article has been retracted. During the preparation of a follow-up study, a mistake was found in the experimental script of the cued reaction time task of experiment 2. Four out of six conditions were mislabeled. Consequently, the reported findings and their interpretation and discussion are incorrect. Careful reexamination and reanalyzing of the data using the correct labels revealed a pattern of results that is not entirely compatible with several of the main claims of the article. Importantly, the corrected results show that reaction times do not increase with more bystanders present at an emergency.Moreover, not only personal distress but also perspective taking predicts the negative influence of bystanders on reaction times.We believe that these new findings undermine our central claim of decreased action preparation as a function of bystanders present at an emergency and the enhancement of this effect in people with higher levels of trait personal distress. While the results and discussion of experiment 1 and 3 remain correct, the new results of experiment 2 influence the article to such an extent that we currently see no other option than to retract the article from publication. We will continue to work on this topic and hope to publish the new results in due time. We deeply regret the publication of invalid results.We sincerely apologize to the Editor and reviewers of the manuscript, and the readers of Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience.

  10. Significant negative differential resistance predicted in scanning tunneling spectroscopy for a C60 monolayer on a metal surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, X. Q.; Pai, Woei Wu; Xiao, X. D.; Cerdá, J. I.; Zhang, R. Q.; Minot, C.; van Hove, M. A.

    2009-08-01

    We theoretically predict the occurrence of negative differential resistance (NDR) in scanning tunneling spectroscopy for a pure C60 monolayer deposited on a metal surface using metal tips, namely, on a Cu(111) surface and using various W tips. It is proposed that the likely reason why NDR has not been observed under such conditions is that NDR can be reduced if an oxidized or Cu-terminated tip is used. A detailed decomposition of the total tunneling current into its contributions from individual molecular orbitals reveals that only some of the orbitals on the tip and on the C60 can be “matched up” to give a contribution to the current and that the NDR is a consequence of the mismatch between these specific orbitals within particular ranges of bias voltage. Moreover, the NDR characteristics, including the peak positions and the peak-to-valley ratios, are found to depend on the tip material, tip geometry, and tip-to-molecule position.

  11. Predictive value of laboratory hematological parameters for thromboses development in patients with spontaneous and radiation associated Ph negative myeloproliferative neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Mishcheniuk, O Yu; Klymenko, S V

    2015-12-01

    Meta. Vstanovyty, iaki z gematologichnykh pokaznykiv maiut' dyskryminatsiynu zdatnist' dlia prognozuvannia rozvyt ku tromboziv pry spontannykh ta radiatsiyno asotsiyovanykh Rh negatyvnykh miieloproliferatyvnykh novoutvoren niakh (MPN).Materialy i metody doslidzhennia. Proanalizovano gematologichni pokaznyky 85 khvorykh na spravzhniu politsy temiiu (SP), 43 – esentsial'nu trombotsytemiiu (ET) ta 40 – pervynnyy miielofibroz (PMF). Osnovnu grupu sklaly patsiienty (SP = 18, ET = 6, PMF = 18), iaki zaznaly diI ionizuiuchoI radiatsiI vnaslidok avariI na ChAES, a kontrol'nu – khvori (SP = 67, ET = 37, PMF = 22) bez vplyvu avariynogo radiatsiynogo oprominennia v anamnezi.Rezul'taty. Predyktyvne shchodo rozvytku tromboziv pry spontanniy SP znachennia gematokrytu ta leykotsytiv sta novyt' > 55 % ta > 13,2 · 109/l vidpovidno, a zagal'nogo kholesterynu – > 5,7 mmol'/l. Efektyvnist' dlia progno zuvannia tromboziv faktora „gematokryt > 55 % (ploshcha pid kryvoiu – PPK = 0,67; r = 0,023) ta „leykotsyty > 13,2 · 109/l ” (PPK = 0,66; r = 0,011) ie seredn'oiu, a „zagal'nyy kholesteryn > 5,7 mmol'/l ” (PPK = 0,92; r < 0,0001) – vidminnoiu. Prognostychnoiu shchodo vynyknennia tromboziv pry radiatsiyno asotsiyovaniy SP ta spontanniy ET vyia vylas' kil'kist' trombotsytiv < 440,0 · 109/l ta leykotsytiv > 10,0 · 109/l vidpovidno, iaka kharakteryzuiet'sia duzhe dobroiu (PPK = 0,84; r = 0,0002 ta PPK = 0,72; r = 0,019 vidpovidno) predyktyvnoiu potuzhnistiu. V osnovniy ta kontrol'niy grupi khvorykh na SP vyznacheno odnakovi PPK zastosuvannia dlia prognozuvannia tromboziv pokaznyka „gematokryt > 55 % ” (r = 0,800) ta „leykotsyty > 13,2 · 109/l ” (r = 0,831), prote rizni PPK rozrakhovano dlia mar kera „trombotsyty < 440,0 · 109/l ” (r = 0,0004). Tomu pokaznyk „trombotsyty < 440,0·109/l ” dorechno vrakhovuvaty pry otsintsi ymovirnosti trombozu za radiatsiyno asotsiyovanoI SP, a „gematokryt > 55% ” ta „leykotsyty > 13,2 · 109/l ” – nezalezhno vid radiatsiynogo anamnezu khvorykh. V osnovniy ta kontrol'niy grupi patsiientiv z ET vidsutnia riznytsi mizh PPK faktora „leykotsyty > 10,0 · 109/l ” (r = 0,509), otzhe vin mozhe zastosovuvatys' pry spontanniy ta radiatsiyno asotsiyovaniy ET.

  12. Predictive value of sequential electroencephalogram (EEG) in neonates with seizures and its relation to neurological outcome.

    PubMed

    Khan, Richard Lester; Nunes, Magda Lahorgue; Garcias da Silva, Luis Fernando; da Costa, Jaderson Costa

    2008-02-01

    = .030). Postnatal epilepsy was diagnosed in 24 infants (41.4%). Five (20.8%) presented West syndrome, 7 (29.2%) focal symptomatic epilepsy, 6 (25%) generalized symptomatic epilepsy, 2 (8.3%) early myoclonic encephalopathy, 1 (4.2%) early infantile epileptic encephalopathy, and in 3, the epileptic syndrome was undefined (12.5%). All infants (n = 5) with West syndrome had some degree of neurodevelopment delay. In conclusion, our findings suggest that sequential EEG in neonates with seizures has more predictive value to estimate the outcomes of neurodevelopment delay, epilepsy, and postnatal death than a single EEG recording. The abnormal background activity in even 1 EEG of the sequential recordings was more significant to determine neurological outcome than abnormal ictal activity or abnormalities in the organization of sleep state.

  13. Clinical value and severity of myocardial perfusion defects in asymptomatic diabetic patients with negative or weakly positive exercise treadmill test

    PubMed Central

    Zakavi, Seyed Rasoul; Taherpour, Mehdi; Moossavi, Zohreh; Sadeghi, Ramin; Kakhki, Vahidreza Dabbagh; Rokni, Haleh

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Although coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death in type 2 diabetic patients, it is frequently asymptomatic. Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is reported to show ischemia in a significant number of asymptomatic diabetic patients. We studied the prevalence and severity of myocardial perfusion defects in asymptomatic diabetic patients and its clinical impact. Methods and patients: One hundred thirty consecutive asymptomatic patients, aged 35-65 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus and with no history of CAD and no cardiac symptoms were recruited in the study. Echocardiography, electrocardiography (ECG), routine laboratory tests and exercise treadmill test (ETT) were performed and patients with weakly positive or negative ETT underwent Dipyridamole MPI. Patients with positive ETT were referred to coronary angiography. Patients were followed for at least 17 months (mean 21.7 months) and any cardiac event was recorded. Results: We studied 81 female and 49 male patients with mean age of 51.8 years. Negative, weakly positive and positive ETT result was noted in 74.3%, 15% and 10.7% respectively. 75% of patients with positive ETT had coronary artery disease in angiography. Gated myocardial perfusion SPECT was done in 106 patients. MPI showed reversible defect in 26.9% of the patients with a mean summed stress score of 3.3±1.8. Follow up completed in 112 patients and only one patient with abnormal MPI underwent coronary angiography followed by PTCA. No cardiac death, MI, UA or hospital admission occurred among our patients during follow up (17-26 months). Mean stress end diastolic volume (EDV) was significantly higher in patients with reversible defect compared to patients without reversible defect based on MPI findings (62.0±31.6 Vs 48.5±18.4 ml, P=0.04). Blood glucose and HbA1c were significantly higher in patients with ischemia compared to patients without ischemia (P<0.05). Meanwhile the ratio of TG to HDL was 6.06±3.2 in ischemic

  14. Accuracy of Igenity genomically estimated breeding values for predicting Australian Angus BREEDPLAN traits.

    PubMed

    Boerner, V; Johnston, D; Wu, X-L; Bauck, S

    2015-02-01

    Genomically estimated breeding values (GEBV) for Angus beef cattle are available from at least 2 commercial suppliers (Igenity [http://www.igenity.com] and Zoetis [http://www.zoetis.com]). The utility of these GEBV for improving genetic evaluation depends on their accuracies, which can be estimated by the genetic correlation with phenotypic target traits. Genomically estimated breeding values of 1,032 Angus bulls calculated from prediction equations (PE) derived by 2 different procedures in the U.S. Angus population were supplied by Igenity. Both procedures were based on Illuminia BovineSNP50 BeadChip genotypes. In procedure sg, GEBV were calculated from PE that used subsets of only 392 SNP, where these subsets were individually selected for each trait by BayesCπ. In procedure rg GEBV were calculated from PE derived in a ridge regression approach using all available SNP. Because the total set of 1,032 bulls with GEBV contained 732 individuals used in the Igenity training population, GEBV subsets were formed characterized by a decreasing average relationship between individuals in the subsets and individuals in the training population. Accuracies of GEBV were estimated as genetic correlations between GEBV and their phenotypic target traits modeling GEBV as trait observations in a bivariate REML approach, in which phenotypic observations were those recorded in the commercial Australian Angus seed stock sector. Using results from the GEBV subset excluding all training individuals as a reference, estimated accuracies were generally in agreement with those already published, with both types of GEBV (sg and rg) yielding similar results. Accuracies for growth traits ranged from 0.29 to 0.45, for reproductive traits from 0.11 to 0.53, and for carcass traits from 0.3 to 0.75. Accuracies generally decreased with an increasing genetic distance between the training and the validation population. However, for some carcass traits characterized by a low number of phenotypic

  15. Stimuli associated with the cancellation of food and its cues enhance eating but display negative incentive value.

    PubMed

    Holland, Peter C

    2014-12-01

    Initially neutral conditioned stimuli paired with food often acquire motivating properties, including serving as secondary reinforcers, enhancing instrumental responding in Pavlovian-instrumental transfer procedures, and potentiating food consumption under conditions of food satiation. Interestingly, cues associated with the cancellation of food and food cues may also potentiate food consumption (e.g., Galarce and Holland, 2009), despite their apparent negative correlations with food delivery. In three experiments with rats, we investigated conditions under which potentiation of feeding by such "interruption stimuIi" (ISs) develops, and some aspects of the content of that learning. Although in all three experiments ISs enhanced food consumption beyond control levels, they were found to act as conditioned inhibitors for anticipatory food cup entry (Experiment 1), to serve as conditioned punishers of instrumental responding (Experiment 2), and to suppress instrumental lever press responding in a Pavlovian instrumental transfer procedure (Experiment 3). Furthermore, when given concurrent choice between different foods, an IS enhanced consumption of the food whose interruption it had previously signaled, but when given a choice between performing two instrumental responses, the IS shifted rats' choice away from the response that had previously yielded the food whose interruption had been signaled by IS (Experiment 3). Thus, the effects of an IS on appetitive responses were opposite to its effects on consummatory responding. Implications for our understanding of learned incentive motivation and the control of overeating are discussed.

  16. Predictive Value of Stemness Factor Sox2 in Gastric Cancer Is Associated with Tumor Location and Stage

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Qian; Li, Ai-Qin; Jin, Peng; Wang, Xin; He, Yu-Qi; Li, Na; Cheng, Tao; Sheng, Jian-Qiu

    2017-01-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are thought to be the "root" of cancer. Although stemness-related factors ALDH1A1 and Sox2 have been used as markers to identify gastric CSCs, the expression pattern and significance of these factors in gastric cancer have not been sufficiently demonstrated. In this study, the expressions of ALDH1A1 and Sox2 were detected by immunohistochemistry in 122 gastric cancer specimens. And the correlation between Sox2 or ALDH1A1 expression and clinicopathological parameters and overall survival data were analyzed. The positive rate of ALDH1A1 expression was 60%, but there was no significant difference between survival rates of ALDH1A1-positive and ALDH1A1-negative patients. Sox2 was expressed in 42% of specimens and was associated with poor prognosis of patients (P = 0.015). Stratified analysis showed that Sox2 expression correlated with shorter lifespan only in patients with cardiac gastric cancers (P = 0.002) or stage I or II gastric cancers (P = 0.002); but not in patients with non-cardiac cancers (P = 0.556) or stage III or IV gastric cancers (P = 0.121). Analysis on a database cohort validated the correlation between Sox2 expression and poor prognosis in stage II cancer. Also, expression of Sox2 was associated with lymphnode metastasis in patients with cardiac gastric cancer (P = 0.037). A multivariate analysis revealed that Sox2 was an independent prognostic factor in cardiac gastric cancer. Our results indicate that predictive value of Sox2 in gastric cancer is associated with cardiac cancer location and with early cancer stages (I and II). PMID:28046028

  17. Positive predictive value of cardiovascular diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study

    PubMed Central

    Sundbøll, Jens; Adelborg, Kasper; Munch, Troels; Frøslev, Trine; Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Schmidt, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Objective The majority of cardiovascular diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) remain to be validated despite extensive use in epidemiological research. We therefore examined the positive predictive value (PPV) of cardiovascular diagnoses in the DNPR. Design Population-based validation study. Setting 1 university hospital and 2 regional hospitals in the Central Denmark Region, 2010–2012. Participants For each cardiovascular diagnosis, up to 100 patients from participating hospitals were randomly sampled during the study period using the DNPR. Main outcome measure Using medical record review as the reference standard, we examined the PPV for cardiovascular diagnoses in the DNPR, coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Results A total of 2153 medical records (97% of the total sample) were available for review. The PPVs ranged from 64% to 100%, with a mean PPV of 88%. The PPVs were ≥90% for first-time myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, stable angina pectoris, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, takotsubo cardiomyopathy, arterial hypertension, atrial fibrillation or flutter, cardiac arrest, mitral valve regurgitation or stenosis, aortic valve regurgitation or stenosis, pericarditis, hypercholesterolaemia, aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm/dilation and arterial claudication. The PPVs were between 80% and 90% for recurrent myocardial infarction, first-time unstable angina pectoris, pulmonary hypertension, bradycardia, ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation, endocarditis, cardiac tumours, first-time venous thromboembolism and between 70% and 80% for first-time and recurrent admission due to heart failure, first-time dilated cardiomyopathy, restrictive cardiomyopathy and recurrent venous thromboembolism. The PPV for first-time myocarditis was 64%. The PPVs were consistent within age, sex, calendar year and hospital categories. Conclusions The validity of

  18. Predictive value of C-reactive protein in critically ill patients after abdominal surgery

    PubMed Central

    Sapin, Frédéric; Biston, Patrick; Piagnerelli, Michael

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The development of sepsis after abdominal surgery is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Due to inflammation, it may be difficult to diagnose infection when it occurs, but measurement of C-reactive protein could facilitate this diagnosis. In the present study, we evaluated the predictive value and time course of C-reactive protein in relation to outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after abdominal surgery. METHODS: We included patients admitted to the ICU after abdominal surgery over a period of two years. The patients were divided into two groups according to their outcome: favorable (F; left the ICU alive, without modification of the antibiotic regimen) and unfavorable (D; death in the ICU, surgical revision with or without modification of the antibiotic regimen or just modification of the regimen). We then compared the highest C-reactive protein level on the first day of admission between the two groups. RESULTS: A total of 308 patients were included: 86 patients had an unfavorable outcome (group D) and 222 had a favorable outcome (group F). The groups were similar in terms of leukocytosis, neutrophilia, and platelet count. C-reactive protein was significantly higher at admission in group D and was the best predictor of an unfavorable outcome, with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 72% for a threshold of 41 mg/L. No changes in C-reactive protein, as assessed based on the delta C-reactive protein, especially at days 4 and 5, were associated with a poor prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: A C-reactive protein cut-off of 41 mg/L during the first day of ICU admission after abdominal surgery was a predictor of an adverse outcome. However, no changes in the C-reactive protein concentration, especially by day 4 or 5, could identify patients at risk of death. PMID:28226029

  19. Investigating the Predictive Value of Functional MRI to Appetitive and Aversive Stimuli: A Pattern Classification Approach

    PubMed Central

    McCabe, Ciara; Rocha-Rego, Vanessa

    2016-01-01

    Background Dysfunctional neural responses to appetitive and aversive stimuli have been investigated as possible biomarkers for psychiatric disorders. However it is not clear to what degree these are separate processes across the brain or in fact overlapping systems. To help clarify this issue we used Gaussian process classifier (GPC) analysis to examine appetitive and aversive processing in the brain. Method 25 healthy controls underwent functional MRI whilst seeing pictures and receiving tastes of pleasant and unpleasant food. We applied GPCs to discriminate between the appetitive and aversive sights and tastes using functional activity patterns. Results The diagnostic accuracy of the GPC for the accuracy to discriminate appetitive taste from neutral condition was 86.5% (specificity = 81%, sensitivity = 92%, p = 0.001). If a participant experienced neutral taste stimuli the probability of correct classification was 92. The accuracy to discriminate aversive from neutral taste stimuli was 82.5% (specificity = 73%, sensitivity = 92%, p = 0.001) and appetitive from aversive taste stimuli was 73% (specificity = 77%, sensitivity = 69%, p = 0.001). In the sight modality, the accuracy to discriminate appetitive from neutral condition was 88.5% (specificity = 85%, sensitivity = 92%, p = 0.001), to discriminate aversive from neutral sight stimuli was 92% (specificity = 92%, sensitivity = 92%, p = 0.001), and to discriminate aversive from appetitive sight stimuli was 63.5% (specificity = 73%, sensitivity = 54%, p = 0.009). Conclusions Our results demonstrate the predictive value of neurofunctional data in discriminating emotional and neutral networks of activity in the healthy human brain. It would be of interest to use pattern recognition techniques and fMRI to examine network dysfunction in the processing of appetitive, aversive and neutral stimuli in psychiatric disorders. Especially where problems with reward and punishment processing have been implicated in the

  20. Non-destructive prediction of thiobarbituricacid reactive substances (TBARS) value for freshness evaluation of chicken meat using hyperspectral imaging.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Zhenjie; Sun, Da-Wen; Pu, Hongbin; Xie, Anguo; Han, Zhong; Luo, Man

    2015-07-15

    This study examined the potential of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) for rapid prediction of 2-thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) content in chicken meat during refrigerated storage. Using the spectral data and the reference values of TBARS, a partial least square regression (PLSR) model was established and yielded acceptable results with regression coefficients in prediction (Rp) of 0.944 and root mean squared errors estimated by prediction (RMSEP) of 0.081. To simplify the calibration model, ten optimal wavelengths were selected by successive projections algorithm (SPA). Then, a new SPA-PLSR model based on the selected wavelengths was built and showed good results with Rp of 0.801 and RMSEP of 0.157. Finally, an image algorithm was developed to achieve image visualization of TBARS values in some representative samples. The encouraging results of this study demonstrated that HSI is suitable for determination of TBARS values for freshness evaluation in chicken meat.

  1. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  2. Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

    2005-04-01

    This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

  3. Mothers' depressive symptoms and infant negative emotionality in the prediction of child adjustment at age 3: testing the maternal reactivity and child vulnerability hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Dix, Theodore; Yan, Ni

    2014-02-01

    This study examined individual differences in how mothers' depressive symptoms affect children's early adjustment. It tested whether problematic development among children high in negative emotionality is accentuated by (a) maternal reactivity, the negative reactivity of mothers with depressive symptoms to difficult child characteristics; and (b) child vulnerability, the susceptibility of negatively emotional children to the negative parenting of mothers with depressive symptoms. Based on 1,364 participants from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care, results showed that mothers' depressive symptoms predicted greater risk for adjustment problems at age 3 among children who as infants were high rather than low in negative emotionality. Increased risk was evident for behavior problems, low responsiveness, high separation distress, and low social competence. Mediational tests suggested that increased risk reflected maternal reactivity: the stronger mothers' depressive symptoms, the more they responded with negative parenting to children high in negative emotionality. The proposal that child vulnerability mediates the greater impact of mothers' depressive symptoms on negatively emotional children was verified only for separation distress. The results support the proposal that, when mothers are high in depressive symptoms, aversive characteristics of children and their behavior increasingly influence early adjustment and do so because they elicit negative parent behavior.

  4. EGFR expression is associated with cytoplasmic staining of CXCR4 and predicts poor prognosis in triple-negative breast carcinomas

    PubMed Central

    Li, Rong-Hui; Huang, Wen-He; Wu, Jun-Dong; Du, Cai-Wen; Zhang, Guo-Jun

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate the significance of C-X-C motif chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFRs) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). CXCR4 and EGFR expression levels were immunohistochemically determined in 207 primary breast cancer specimens. The associations between receptor expression and clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed, and receptor expression was also assessed as a prognostic factor. In the human MDA-MB-231 TNBC cell line, CXCR4 or EGFR was stably knocked down by short hairpin RNA, and the biological behavior of the cells, including migration, invasion and tumorigenesis, was investigated. The results revealed that TNBC was associated with younger age, higher histological grade and an aggressive phenotype. CXCR4 and EGFR were highly expressed in patients with TNBC, and those with high CXCR4 or EGFR expression exhibited an unfavorable prognosis in terms of disease-free survival and overall survival. In MDA-MB-231 cells, the expression of CXCR4 protein was decreased following EGFR silencing, while CXCR4 knockdown also caused a decrease in EGFR protein levels. The migratory and invasive capabilities of MDA-MB-231 cells were decreased following the knockdown of CXCR4 or EGFR expression. A strong correlation between CXCR4 and EGFR expression was identified in patients with TNBC. The results suggest that elevated expression levels of these two receptors may serve as predictive factors for poor prognosis in patients with TNBC. In addition, tumor proliferation, migration, invasion and tumorigenesis are weakened in MDA-MB-231 cells following suppression of CXCR4 or EGFR expression. Therefore, EGFR and CXCR4 may be potential therapeutic targets for TNBC. PMID:28356948

  5. EGFR expression is associated with cytoplasmic staining of CXCR4 and predicts poor prognosis in triple-negative breast carcinomas.

    PubMed

    Li, Rong-Hui; Huang, Wen-He; Wu, Jun-Dong; Du, Cai-Wen; Zhang, Guo-Jun

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate the significance of C-X-C motif chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFRs) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). CXCR4 and EGFR expression levels were immunohistochemically determined in 207 primary breast cancer specimens. The associations between receptor expression and clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed, and receptor expression was also assessed as a prognostic factor. In the human MDA-MB-231 TNBC cell line, CXCR4 or EGFR was stably knocked down by short hairpin RNA, and the biological behavior of the cells, including migration, invasion and tumorigenesis, was investigated. The results revealed that TNBC was associated with younger age, higher histological grade and an aggressive phenotype. CXCR4 and EGFR were highly expressed in patients with TNBC, and those with high CXCR4 or EGFR expression exhibited an unfavorable prognosis in terms of disease-free survival and overall survival. In MDA-MB-231 cells, the expression of CXCR4 protein was decreased following EGFR silencing, while CXCR4 knockdown also caused a decrease in EGFR protein levels. The migratory and invasive capabilities of MDA-MB-231 cells were decreased following the knockdown of CXCR4 or EGFR expression. A strong correlation between CXCR4 and EGFR expression was identified in patients with TNBC. The results suggest that elevated expression levels of these two receptors may serve as predictive factors for poor prognosis in patients with TNBC. In addition, tumor proliferation, migration, invasion and tumorigenesis are weakened in MDA-MB-231 cells following suppression of CXCR4 or EGFR expression. Therefore, EGFR and CXCR4 may be potential therapeutic targets for TNBC.

  6. Diagnostic value of colour Doppler twinkling artefact in sites negative for stones on B mode renal sonography.

    PubMed

    Turrin, Alberto; Minola, Paolo; Costa, Fortunato; Cerati, Luciana; Andrulli, Simeone; Trinchieri, Alberto

    2007-12-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the diagnostic value of the colour Doppler twinkling artefact (TA) in renal stone disease. To enhance the evidence of TA, a preliminary in vitro study was performed to optimise the setting of colour Doppler sonography. In the in vitro study, an oxen kidney was examined using an high-frequency (12.5 MHz) linear array probe in a water bath before and after the inoculation of an aliquot of powder obtained by fragmentation of a calcium oxalate stone. In the clinical study, 67 patients with diagnosis of urinary stone based on B-mode sonography and 67 matched control subjects were examined with colour Doppler sonography using a low-frequency (2.5 MHz) curvilinear phased array probe. In vitro, the injection of calcium oxalate powder in a bovine kidney sample induced the appearance of spots without any back shadowing appearance on B mode but with a large number of TA on colour Doppler. In vivo, TA was much more frequent in patients with stone disease (95.5%) compared to controls (9.0%) (P < 0.001). TA was highly associated to renal stone disease and was also present in renal areas where a stone was undetected with B mode approach suggesting its diagnostic role although further studies are needed to confirm its accuracy. The type of instrumentation and its setting is crucial to obtain reproducible results.

  7. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  8. Sun Series program for the REEDA System. [predicting orbital lifetime using sunspot values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shankle, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

  9. Comparing the Predictive Value of Multiple Cognitive, Affective, and Motor Tasks after Rodent Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Loane, David J.; Murray, Michael G.; Stoica, Bogdan A.; Faden, Alan I.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14–23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for

  10. Comparing the predictive value of multiple cognitive, affective, and motor tasks after rodent traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zaorui; Loane, David J; Murray, Michael G; Stoica, Bogdan A; Faden, Alan I

    2012-10-10

    Controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) is a widely-used, clinically-relevant model of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although functional outcomes have been used for years in this model, little work has been done to compare the predictive value of various cognitive and sensorimotor assessment tests, singly or in combination. Such information would be particularly useful for assessing mechanisms of injury or therapeutic interventions. Following isoflurane anesthesia, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to sham, mild (5.0 m/sec), moderate (6.0 m/sec), or severe (7.5 m/sec) CCI. A battery of behavioral tests were evaluated and compared, including the standard Morris water maze (sMWM), reversal Morris water maze (rMWM), novel object recognition (NOR), passive avoidance (PA), tail-suspension (TS), beam walk (BW), and open-field locomotor activity. The BW task, performed at post-injury days (PID) 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, showed good discrimination as a function of injury severity. The sMWM and rMWM tests (PID 14-23), as well as NOR (PID 24 and 25), effectively discriminated spatial and novel object learning and memory across injury severity levels. Notably, the rMWM showed the greatest separation between mild and moderate/severe injury. PA (PID 27 and 28) and TS (PID 24) also reflected differences across injury levels, but to a lesser degree. We also compared individual functional measures with histological outcomes such as lesion volume and neuronal cell loss across anatomical regions. In addition, we created a novel composite behavioral score index from individual complementary behavioral scores, and it provided superior discrimination across injury severities compared to individual tests. In summary, this study demonstrates the feasibility of using a larger number of complementary functional outcome behavioral tests than those traditionally employed to follow post-traumatic recovery after TBI, and suggests that the composite score may be a helpful tool for screening

  11. The value of magnetoencephalography for seizure-onset zone localization in magnetic resonance imaging-negative partial epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Jung, Julien; Bouet, Romain; Delpuech, Claude; Ryvlin, Philippe; Isnard, Jean; Guenot, Marc; Bertrand, Olivier; Hammers, Alexander; Mauguière, François

    2013-10-01

    Surgical treatment of epilepsy is a challenge for patients with non-contributive brain magnetic resonance imaging. However, surgery is feasible if the seizure-onset zone is precisely delineated through intracranial electroencephalography recording. We recently described a method, volumetric imaging of epileptic spikes, to delineate the spiking volume of patients with focal epilepsy using magnetoencephalography. We postulated that the extent of the spiking volume delineated with volumetric imaging of epileptic spikes could predict the localizability of the seizure-onset zone by intracranial electroencephalography investigation and outcome of surgical treatment. Twenty-one patients with non-contributive magnetic resonance imaging findings were included. All patients underwent intracerebral electroencephalography investigation through stereotactically implanted depth electrodes (stereo-electroencephalography) and magnetoencephalography with delineation of the spiking volume using volumetric imaging of epileptic spikes. We evaluated the spatial congruence between the spiking volume determined by magnetoencephalography and the localization of the seizure-onset zone determined by stereo-electroencephalography. We also evaluated the outcome of stereo-electroencephalography and surgical treatment according to the extent of the spiking volume (focal, lateralized but non-focal or non-lateralized). For all patients, we found a spatial overlap between the seizure-onset zone and the spiking volume. For patients with a focal spiking volume, the seizure-onset zone defined by stereo-electroencephalography was clearly localized in all cases and most patients (6/7, 86%) had a good surgical outcome. Conversely, stereo-electroencephalography failed to delineate a seizure-onset zone in 57% of patients with a lateralized spiking volume, and in the two patients with bilateral spiking volume. Four of the 12 patients with non-focal spiking volumes were operated upon, none became seizure

  12. Development and Predictive Value of Early Vocalizations in Very-Low-Birth-Weight Children: A Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stolt, Suvi; Lehtonen, Liisa; Haataja, Leena; Lapinleimu, Helena

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze early vocalization development, the predictive value of this development in terms of later language skills, and possible gender difference in early vocalization development in a selected cohort of 32 very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) children and 35 full-term controls. The data on early vocalization…

  13. An Interval-Valued Neural Network Approach for Uncertainty Quantification in Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Vitelli, Valeria; Zio, Enrico

    2015-11-01

    We consider the task of performing prediction with neural networks (NNs) on the basis of uncertain input data expressed in the form of intervals. We aim at quantifying the uncertainty in the prediction arising from both the input data and the prediction model. A multilayer perceptron NN is trained to map interval-valued input data onto interval outputs, representing the prediction intervals (PIs) of the real target values. The NN training is performed by nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II, so that the PIs are optimized both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and dimension (width). Demonstration of the proposed method is given in two case studies: 1) a synthetic case study, in which the data have been generated with a 5-min time frequency from an autoregressive moving average model with either Gaussian or Chi-squared innovation distribution and 2) a real case study, in which experimental data consist of wind speed measurements with a time step of 1 h. Comparisons are given with a crisp (single-valued) approach. The results show that the crisp approach is less reliable than the interval-valued input approach in terms of capturing the variability in input.

  14. Predicted Outcome Value of E-Mail Communication: Factors that Foster Professional Relational Development between Students and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Stacy; Kelsey, Dawn; Lancaster, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Using predicted outcome value theory as a guide, this study investigated the link between e-mail correspondence as a form of computer mediated extra class communication and how it may shape students' desire to foster student-teacher relational development. The findings revealed that when students believe their teacher e-mails the class frequently,…

  15. Acute Lung Injury Following Smoke Inhalation: Predictive Value of Sputum Biomarkers and Time Course of Lung Inflammation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    acute respiratory distress syndrome ( ARDS ). Laboratory assays on the bronchial lavage samples...at high risk of developing acute respiratory distress syndrome ( ARDS ). Given the delay of 12 or more hours from exposure to development of ARDS , a...AD Award Number: DAMD17-02-1-0673 TITLE : Acute Lung Injury Following Smoke Inhalation: Predictive Value of Sputum Biomarkers and Time Course of

  16. The independent predictive value of peritraumatic dissociation for PTSD symptomatology after type I trauma: a systematic review of prospective studies.

    PubMed

    van der Velden, Peter G; Wittmann, Lutz

    2008-07-01

    We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies examining the independent predictive value of peritraumatic dissociation (PD) for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptomatology following single traumatic events. Insight into the independent predictive value may help to identify victims at risk for PTSD symptomatology. For this purpose a literature search was carried out using the online databases PsycINFO, Medline/Pubmed, and PILOTS. Studies were included if they were published in peer-reviewed journals (before 2007), focused on more or less single traumatic events (Type I trauma), assessed PD within 1 month, had follow-ups 3 months or later, and which controlled for mental health problems at the time PD was assessed. The majority of the 17 identified studies showed no or only weak indications of an independent predictive value of PD for PTSD symptomatology following type I traumas. Only 3 of the 6 studies with positive results reported a strong independent predictive value of PD. Although bivariately associated with PTSD symptomatology, there is no general consensus across prospective Type I trauma studies that PD qualifies as an important independent predictor of PTSD symptomatology. Results indicate that initial mental health problems, among other factors, are better predictors of PTSD symptomatology than PD.

  17. [Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

    PubMed

    Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

    2017-02-01

    The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling.

  18. High Throughput pharmacokinetic modeling using computationally predicted parameter values: dissociation constants (TDS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estimates of the ionization association and dissociation constant (pKa) are vital to modeling the pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals in vivo. Methodologies for the prediction of compound sequestration in specific tissues using partition coefficients require a parameter that ch...

  19. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents.

    PubMed

    Park, Andres E; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M; Baker, Laura A

    2015-08-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress.

  20. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  1. Predictive value of neurological examination for early cortical responses to somatosensory evoked potentials in patients with postanoxic coma.

    PubMed

    Bouwes, Aline; Binnekade, Jan M; Verbaan, Bart W; Zandbergen, Eveline G J; Koelman, Johannes H T M; Weinstein, Henry C; Hijdra, Albert; Horn, Janneke

    2012-03-01

    Bilateral absence of cortical N20 responses of median nerve somatosensory evoked potentials (SEP) predicts poor neurological outcome in postanoxic coma after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Although SEP is easy to perform and available in most hospitals, it is worthwhile to know how neurological signs are associated with SEP results. The aim of this study was to investigate whether specific clinical neurological signs are associated with either an absent or a present median nerve SEP in patients after CPR. Data from the previously published multicenter prospective cohort study PROPAC (prognosis in postanoxic coma, 2000-2003) were used. Neurological examination, consisting of Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) and brain stem reflexes, and SEP were performed 24, 48, and 72 h after CPR. Positive predictive values for predicting absent and present SEP, as well as diagnostic accuracy were calculated. Data of 407 patients were included. Of the 781 SEPs performed, N20 s were present in 401, bilaterally absent in 299, and 81 SEPs were technically undeterminable. The highest positive predictive values (0.63-0.91) for an absent SEP were found for absent pupillary light responses. The highest positive predictive values (0.71-0.83) for a present SEP were found for motor scores of withdrawal to painful stimuli or better. Multivariate analyses showed a fair diagnostic accuracy (0.78) for neurological examination in predicting an absent or present SEP at 48 or 72 h after CPR. This study shows that neurological examination cannot reliably predict absent or present cortical N20 responses in median nerve SEPs in patients after CPR.

  2. Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution.

    PubMed

    Postma, E

    2006-03-01

    The ability to predict individual breeding values in natural populations with known pedigrees has provided a powerful tool to separate phenotypic values into their genetic and environmental components in a nonexperimental setting. This has allowed sophisticated analyses of selection, as well as powerful tests of evolutionary change and differentiation. To date, there has, however, been no evaluation of the reliability or potential limitations of the approach. In this article, I address these gaps. In particular, I emphasize the differences between true and predicted breeding values (PBVs), which as yet have largely been ignored. These differences do, however, have important implications for the interpretation of, firstly, the relationship between PBVs and fitness, and secondly, patterns in PBVs over time. I subsequently present guidelines I believe to be essential in the formulation of the questions addressed in studies using PBVs, and I discuss possibilities for future research.

  3. Relationship among performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics, and their ability to predict economic value in the feedlot.

    PubMed

    Retallick, K M; Faulkner, D B; Rodriguez-Zas, S L; Nkrumah, J D; Shike, D W

    2013-12-01

    A 4-yr study was conducted using 736 steers of known Angus, Simmental, or Simmental × Angus genetics to determine performance, carcass, and feed efficiency factors that explained variation in economic performance. Steers were pen fed and individual DMI was recorded using a GrowSafe automated feeding system (GrowSafe Systems Ltd., Airdrie, Alberta, Canada). Steers consumed a similar diet and received similar management each year. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine current economic value of feed efficiency and 2) identify performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics that predict: carcass value, profit, cost of gain, and feed costs. Economic data used were from 2011 values. Feed efficiency values investigated were: feed conversion ratio (FCR; feed to gain), residual feed intake (RFI), residual BW gain (RG), and residual intake and BW gain (RIG). Dependent variables were carcass value ($/steer), profit ($/steer), feed costs ($/steer • d(-1)), and cost of gain ($/kg). Independent variables were year, DMI, ADG, HCW, LM area, marbling, yield grade, dam breed, and sire breed. A 10% improvement in RG (P < 0.05) yielded the lowest cost of gain at $0.09/kg and highest carcass value at $17.92/steer. Carcass value increased (P < 0.05) as feed efficiency improved for FCR, RG, and RIG. Profit increased with a 10% improvement in feed efficiency (P < 0.05) with FCR at $34.65/steer, RG at $31.21/steer, RIG at $21.66/steer, and RFI at $11.47/steer. The carcass value prediction model explained 96% of the variation among carcasses and included HCW, marbling score, and yield grade. Average daily gain, marbling score, yield grade, DMI, HCW, and year born constituted 81% of the variation for prediction of profit. Eighty-five percent of the variation in cost of gain was explained by ADG, DMI, HCW, and year. Prediction equations were developed that excluded ADG and DMI, and included feed efficiency values. Using these equations, cost of gain was explained

  4. Relative value of diverse brain MRI and blood-based biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in the elderly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Sarah K.; Ver Steeg, Greg; Daianu, Madelaine; Mezher, Adam; Jahanshad, Neda; Nir, Talia M.; Hua, Xue; Gutman, Boris A.; Galstyan, Aram; Thompson, Paul M.

    2016-03-01

    Cognitive decline accompanies many debilitating illnesses, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In old age, brain tissue loss also occurs along with cognitive decline. Although blood tests are easier to perform than brain MRI, few studies compare brain scans to standard blood tests to see which kinds of information best predict future decline. In 504 older adults from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we first used linear regression to assess the relative valu