Nested mesoscale-to-LES modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer in the presence of under-resolved convective structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazzaro, Laura J.; Munoz-Esparza, Domingo; Lundquist, Julie K.

Multiscale atmospheric simulations can be computationally prohibitive, as they require large domains and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. Grid-nesting can alleviate this by bridging mesoscales and microscales, but one turbulence scheme must run at resolutions within a range of scales known as the terra incognita (TI). TI grid-cell sizes can violate both mesoscale and microscale subgrid-scale parametrization assumptions, resulting in unrealistic flow structures. Herein we assess the impact of unrealistic lateral boundary conditions from parent mesoscale simulations at TI resolutions on nested large eddy simulations (LES), to determine whether parent domains bias the nested LES. We present a series of idealized nestedmore » mesoscale-to-LES runs of a dry convective boundary layer (CBL) with different parent resolutions in the TI. We compare the nested LES with a stand-alone LES with periodic boundary conditions. The nested LES domains develop ~20% smaller convective structures, while potential temperature profiles are nearly identical for both the mesoscales and LES simulations. The horizontal wind speed and surface wind shear in the nested simulations closely resemble the reference LES. Heat fluxes are overestimated by up to ~0.01 K m s –1 in the top half of the PBL for all nested simulations. Overestimates of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and Reynolds stress in the nested domains are proportional to the parent domain's grid-cell size, and are almost eliminated for the simulation with the finest parent grid-cell size. Furthermore, based on these results, we recommend that LES of the CBL be forced by mesoscale simulations with the finest practical resolution.« less

SUBGRID PARAMETERIZATION OF SNOW DISTRIBUTION FOR AN ENERGY AND MASS BALANCE SNOW COVER MODEL. (R824784)

EPA Science Inventory

Representation of sub-element scale variability in snow accumulation and ablation is increasingly recognized as important in distributed hydrologic modelling. Representing sub-grid scale variability may be accomplished through numerical integration of a nested grid or through a l...

Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Evan; Molemaker, Jeroen; Shchepetkin, Alexander F.; Colas, Francois; McWilliams, James C.; Sangrà, Pablo

One-way offline nesting of a primitive-equation regional ocean numerical model (ROMS) is investigated, with special attention to the boundary forcing file creation process. The model has a modified open boundary condition which minimises false wave reflections, and is optimised to utilise high-frequency boundary updates. The model configuration features a previously computed solution which supplies boundary forcing data to an interior domain with an increased grid resolution. At the open boundaries of the interior grid (the child) the topography is matched to that of the outer grid (the parent), over a narrow transition region. A correction is applied to the normal baroclinic and barotropic velocities at the open boundaries of the child to ensure volume conservation. It is shown that these steps, together with a carefully constructed interpolation of the parent data, lead to a high-quality child solution, with minimal artifacts such as persistent rim currents and wave reflections at the boundaries. Sensitivity experiments provide information about the robustness of the model open boundary condition to perturbations in the surface wind stress forcing field, to the perturbation of the volume conservation enforcement in the boundary forcing, and to perturbation of the vertical density structure in the boundary forcing. This knowledge is important when extending the nesting technique to include external data from alien sources, such as ocean models with physics and/or numerics different from ROMS, or from observed climatologies of temperature, salinity and sea level.

Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

2002-05-01

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Sensitivity studies of high-resolution RegCM3 simulations of precipitation over the European Alps: the effect of lateral boundary conditions and domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, Imran; Formayer, Herbert

2016-11-01

A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75∘, the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5∘, and finally the 2.5∘ NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5∘. Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125∘ ERA40 and 0.7∘ ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.

A Prototype Nonhydrostatic Regional-to-Global Nested-Grid Atmosphere Model for Medium-range Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, L.; Lin, S. J.; Zhou, L.; Chen, J. H.; Benson, R.; Rees, S.

2016-12-01

Limited-area convection-permitting models have proven useful for short-range NWP, but are unable to interact with the larger scales needed for longer lead-time skill. A new global forecast model, fvGFS, has been designed combining a modern nonhydrostatic dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational GFS physics and initial conditions, and has been shown to provide excellent global skill while improving representation of small-scale phenomena. The nested-grid capability of FV3 allows us to build a regional-to-global variable-resolution model to efficiently refine to 3-km grid spacing over the Continental US. The use of two-way grid nesting allows us to reach these resolutions very efficiently, with the operational requirement easily attainable on current supercomputing systems.Even without a boundary-layer or advanced microphysical scheme appropriate for convection-perrmitting resolutions, the effectiveness of fvGFS can be demonstrated for a variety of weather events. We demonstrate successful proof-of-concept simulations of a variety of phenomena. We show the capability to develop intense hurricanes with realistic fine-scale eyewalls and rainbands. The new model also produces skillful predictions of severe weather outbreaks and of organized mesoscale convective systems. Fine-scale orographic and boundary-layer phenomena are also simulated with excellent fidelity by fvGFS. Further expected improvements are discussed, including the introduction of more sophisticated microphysics and of scale-aware convection schemes.

Nested large-eddy simulations of nighttime shear-instability waves and transient warming in a steep valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Bowen; Chow, Fotini

2012-11-01

This numerical study investigates the nighttime flow dynamics in a steep valley. The Owens Valley in California is highly complex, and represents a challenging terrain for large-eddy simulations (LES). To ensure a faithful representation of the nighttime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), realistic external boundary conditions are provided through grid nesting. The model obtains initial and lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data, and bottom boundary conditions from a land-surface model. We demonstrate the ability to extend a mesoscale model to LES resolutions through a systematic grid-nesting framework, achieving accurate simulations of the stable ABL over complex terrain. Nighttime cold-air flow was channeled through a gap on the valley sidewall. The resulting katabatic current induced a cross-valley flow. Directional shear against the down-valley flow in the lower layers of the valley led to breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves at the interface, which is captured only on the LES grid. Later that night, the flow transitioned from down-slope to down-valley near the western sidewall, leading to a transient warming episode. Simulation results are verified against field observations and reveal good spatial and temporal precision. Supported by NSF grant ATM-0645784.

Simulation of ozone production in a complex circulation region using nested grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.; Foret, G.

2003-07-01

During ESCOMPTE precampaign (15 June to 10 July 2000), three days of intensive pollution (IOP0) have been observed and simulated. The comprehensive RAMS model, version 4.3, coupled online with a chemical module including 29 species, has been used to follow the chemistry of the zone polluted over southern France. This online method can be used because the code is paralleled and the SGI 3800 computer is very powerful. Two runs have been performed: run1 with one grid and run2 with two nested grids. The redistribution of simulated chemical species (ozone, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) was compared to aircraft measurements and surface stations. The 2-grid run has given substantially better results than the one-grid run only because the former takes the outer pollutants into account. This online method helps to explain dynamics and to retrieve the chemical species redistribution with a good agreement.

Simulation of ozone production in a complex circulation region using nested grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.; Foret, G.

2004-06-01

During the ESCOMPTE precampaign (summer 2000, over Southern France), a 3-day period of intensive observation (IOP0), associated with ozone peaks, has been simulated. The comprehensive RAMS model, version 4.3, coupled on-line with a chemical module including 29 species, is used to follow the chemistry of the polluted zone. This efficient but time consuming method can be used because the code is installed on a parallel computer, the SGI 3800. Two runs are performed: run 1 with a single grid and run 2 with two nested grids. The simulated fields of ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide are compared with aircraft and surface station measurements. The 2-grid run looks substantially better than the run with one grid because the former takes the outer pollutants into account. This on-line method helps to satisfactorily retrieve the chemical species redistribution and to explain the impact of dynamics on this redistribution.

A variant of nested dissection for solving n by n grid problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, A.; Poole, W. G., Jr.; Voigt, R. G.

1976-01-01

Nested dissection orderings are known to be very effective for solving the sparse positive definite linear systems which arise from n by n grid problems. In this paper nested dissection is shown to be the final step of incomplete nested dissection, an ordering which corresponds to the premature termination of dissection. Analyses of the arithmetic and storage requirements for incomplete nested dissection are given, and the ordering is shown to be competitive with nested dissection under certain conditions.

Improving Barotropic Tides by Two-way Nesting High and Low Resolution Domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, C. H.; Buijsman, M. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Shriver, J. F.; Hogan, P. J.; Arbic, B. K.; Richman, J. G.

2017-12-01

In a realistically forced global ocean model, relatively large sea-surface-height root-mean-square (RMS) errors are observed in the North Atlantic near the Hudson Strait. These may be associated with large tidal resonances interacting with coastal bathymetry that are not correctly represented with a low resolution grid. This issue can be overcome by using high resolution grids, but at a high computational cost. In this paper we apply two-way nesting as an alternative solution. This approach applies high resolution to the area with large RMS errors and a lower resolution to the rest. It is expected to improve the tidal solution as well as reduce the computational cost. To minimize modification of the original source codes of the ocean circulation model (HYCOM), we apply the coupler OASIS3-MCT. This coupler is used to exchange barotropic pressures and velocity fields through its APIs (Application Programming Interface) between the parent and the child components. The developed two-way nesting framework has been validated with an idealized test case where the parent and the child domains have identical grid resolutions. The result of the idealized case shows very small RMS errors between the child and parent solutions. We plan to show results for a case with realistic tidal forcing in which the resolution of the child grid is three times that of the parent grid. The numerical results of this realistic case are compared to TPXO data.

A Note on Multigrid Theory for Non-nested Grids and/or Quadrature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, C. C.; Douglas, J., Jr.; Fyfe, D. E.

1996-01-01

We provide a unified theory for multilevel and multigrid methods when the usual assumptions are not present. For example, we do not assume that the solution spaces or the grids are nested. Further, we do not assume that there is an algebraic relationship between the linear algebra problems on different levels. What we provide is a computationally useful theory for adaptively changing levels. Theory is provided for multilevel correction schemes, nested iteration schemes, and one way (i.e., coarse to fine grid with no correction iterations) schemes. We include examples showing the applicability of this theory: finite element examples using quadrature in the matrix assembly and finite volume examples with non-nested grids. Our theory applies directly to other discretizations as well.

Daily hydro- and morphodynamic simulations at Duck, NC, USA using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penko, Allison; Veeramony, Jay; Palmsten, Margaret; Bak, Spicer; Brodie, Katherine; Hesser, Tyler

2017-04-01

Operational forecasting of the coastal nearshore has wide ranging societal and humanitarian benefits, specifically for the prediction of natural hazards due to extreme storm events. However, understanding the model limitations and uncertainty is as equally important as the predictions themselves. By comparing and contrasting the predictions of multiple high-resolution models in a location with near real-time collection of observations, we are able to perform a vigorous analysis of the model results in order to achieve more robust and certain predictions. In collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (USACE FRF) as part of the Coastal Model Test Bed (CMTB) project, we have set up Delft3D at Duck, NC, USA to run in near-real time, driven by measured wave data at the boundary. The CMTB at the USACE FRF allows for the unique integration of operational wave, circulation, and morphology models with real-time observations. The FRF has an extensive array of in-situ and remotely sensed oceanographic, bathymetric, and meteorological data that is broadcast in near-real time onto a publically accessible server. Wave, current, and bed elevation instruments are permanently installed across the model domain including 2 waverider buoys in 17-m and 26-m water depths at 3.5-km and 17-km offshore, respectively, that record directional wave data every 30-min. Here, we present the workflow and output of the Delft3D hydro- and morphodynamic simulations at Duck, and show the tactical benefits and operational potential of such a system. A nested Delft3D simulation runs a parent grid that extends 12-km in the along-shore and 3.5-km in the cross-shore with 50-m resolution and a maximum depth of approximately 17-m. The bathymetry for the parent grid was obtained from a regional digital elevation model (DEM) generated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The inner nested grid extends 1.8-km in the along-shore and 1-km in the cross-shore with 5-m resolution and a maximum depth of approximately 8-m. The inner nested grid initial model bathymetry is set to either the predicted bathymetry from the previous day's simulation or a survey, whichever is more recent. Delft3D-WAVE runs in the parent grid and is driven with the real-time spectral wave measurements from the waverider buoy in 17-m depth. The spectral output from Delft3D-WAVE in the parent grid is then used as the boundary condition for the inner nested high-resolution grid, in which the coupled Delft3D wave-flow-morphology model is run. The model results are then compared to the wave, current, and bathymetry observations collected at the FRF as well as other models that are run in the CMTB.

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Toward Skillful Subseasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricanes with regionally-refined GFDL HiRAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, K.; Harris, L.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

Skillful subseasonal prediction of hurricane activity (from two weeks to less than a season) is important for early preparedness and reducing the hurricane damage in coastal regions. In this study, we will present evaluations of the performance of GFDL HiRAM (High-Resolution Atmospheric Model) for the simulation and prediction of the North Atlantic hurricane activity on the sub-seasonal time scale. A series of sub-seasonal (30-day duration) retrospective predictions were performed over the years 2000-2014 using two configurations of HiRAM: a) global uniform 25km-resolution grid and b) two-way nested grid with a 8km-resolution nest over North Atlantic. The analysis of hurricane structure from the two sets of simulations indicates the two-way-nesting method is an efficient way to improve the representation of hurricanes in global models: the two-way nested configuration produces realistic hurricane inner-core size and structure, which leads to improved lifetime maximum intensity distribution. Both configurations show very promising performance in the subseasonal hurricane genesis prediction, but the two-way nested configuration shows better performance in the prediction of major hurricane (Categories 3-5) activity because of the improved intensity simulation. We will also present the analysis of how the phase and magnitude of MJO, as well as the initial SST anomaly affect the model's prediction skill.

Nested sparse grid collocation method with delay and transformation for subsurface flow and transport problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Qinzhuo; Zhang, Dongxiao; Tchelepi, Hamdi

2017-06-01

In numerical modeling of subsurface flow and transport problems, formation properties may not be deterministically characterized, which leads to uncertainty in simulation results. In this study, we propose a sparse grid collocation method, which adopts nested quadrature rules with delay and transformation to quantify the uncertainty of model solutions. We show that the nested Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite quadrature is more efficient than the unnested Gauss-Hermite quadrature. We compare the convergence rates of various quadrature rules including the domain truncation and domain mapping approaches. To further improve accuracy and efficiency, we present a delayed process in selecting quadrature nodes and a transformed process for approximating unsmooth or discontinuous solutions. The proposed method is tested by an analytical function and in one-dimensional single-phase and two-phase flow problems with different spatial variances and correlation lengths. An additional example is given to demonstrate its applicability to three-dimensional black-oil models. It is found from these examples that the proposed method provides a promising approach for obtaining satisfactory estimation of the solution statistics and is much more efficient than the Monte-Carlo simulations.

WRF nested large-eddy simulations of deep convection during SEAC4RS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, Nicholas K.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Tanelli, Simone; Turk, F. Joseph; Lawson, R. Paul; Woods, Sarah; Freeman, Sean

2017-04-01

Large-eddy simulations (LES) and observations are often combined to increase our understanding and improve the simulation of deep convection. This study evaluates a nested LES method that uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and, specifically, tests whether the nested LES approach is useful for studying deep convection during a real-world case. The method was applied on 2 September 2013, a day of continental convection that occurred during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) campaign. Mesoscale WRF output (1.35 km grid length) was used to drive a nested LES with 450 m grid spacing, which then drove a 150 m domain. Results reveal that the 450 m nested LES reasonably simulates observed reflectivity distributions and aircraft-observed in-cloud vertical velocities during the study period. However, when examining convective updrafts, reducing the grid spacing to 150 m worsened results. We find that the simulated updrafts in the 150 m run become too diluted by entrainment, thereby generating updrafts that are weaker than observed. Lastly, the 450 m simulation is combined with observations to study the processes forcing strong midlevel cloud/updraft edge downdrafts that were observed on 2 September. Results suggest that these strong downdrafts are forced by evaporative cooling due to mixing and by perturbation pressure forces acting to restore mass continuity around neighboring updrafts. We conclude that the WRF nested LES approach, with further development and evaluation, could potentially provide an effective method for studying deep convection in real-world cases.

Nested-grid simulation of mercury over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Jaeglé, L.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Holmes, C. D.; Amos, H. M.; Wang, Q.; Talbot, R.; Artz, R.; Brooks, S.; Luke, W.; Holsen, T. M.; Felton, D.; Miller, E. K.; Perry, K. D.; Schmeltz, D.; Steffen, A.; Tordon, R.; Weiss-Penzias, P.; Zsolway, R.

2012-01-01

We have developed a new high-resolution (1/2° latitude by 2/3° longitude) nested-grid mercury (Hg) simulation over North America employing the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Emissions, chemistry, deposition, and meteorology are self-consistent between the global and nested domains. Compared to the global model (4° latitude by 5° longitude), the nested model shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial and temporal variability of Hg wet deposition over North America observed by the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in 2008-2009. The nested simulation resolves features such as land/ocean contrast and higher deposition due to orographic precipitation, and predicts more efficient convective rain scavenging of Hg over the southeast United States. However, the nested model overestimates Hg wet deposition over the Ohio River Valley region (ORV) by 27%. We modify anthropogenic emission speciation profiles in the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) to account for the rapid in-plume reduction of reactive to elemental Hg (IPR simulation). This leads to a decrease in the model bias to +3% over the ORV region. Over the contiguous US, the correlation coefficient (r) between MDN observations and our IPR simulation increases from 0.63 to 0.78. The IPR nested simulation generally reproduces the seasonal cycle in surface concentrations of speciated Hg from the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) and Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Network (CAMNet). In the IPR simulation, annual mean reactive gaseous and particulate-bound Hg are within 80% and 10% of observations, respectively. In contrast, the simulation with unmodified anthropogenic Hg speciation profiles overestimates these observations by factors of 2 to 4. The nested model shows improved skill at capturing the horizontal variability of Hg observed over California during the ARCTAS aircraft campaign. We find that North American anthropogenic emissions account for 10-22% of Hg wet deposition flux over the US, depending on the anthropogenic emissions speciation profile assumed. The percent contribution can be as high as 60% near large point emission sources in ORV. The contribution for the dry deposition is 13-20%.

A two-stage adaptive stochastic collocation method on nested sparse grids for multiphase flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Qinzhuo; Zhang, Dongxiao; Tchelepi, Hamdi

2017-02-01

A new computational method is proposed for efficient uncertainty quantification of multiphase flow in porous media with stochastic permeability. For pressure estimation, it combines the dimension-adaptive stochastic collocation method on Smolyak sparse grids and the Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite nested quadrature formulas. For saturation estimation, an additional stage is developed, in which the pressure and velocity samples are first generated by the sparse grid interpolation and then substituted into the transport equation to solve for the saturation samples, to address the low regularity problem of the saturation. Numerical examples are presented for multiphase flow with stochastic permeability fields to demonstrate accuracy and efficiency of the proposed two-stage adaptive stochastic collocation method on nested sparse grids.

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

1999-01-01

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

PubMed

Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

2014-03-29

We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

A two-stage adaptive stochastic collocation method on nested sparse grids for multiphase flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liao, Qinzhuo, E-mail: liaoqz@pku.edu.cn; Zhang, Dongxiao; Tchelepi, Hamdi

A new computational method is proposed for efficient uncertainty quantification of multiphase flow in porous media with stochastic permeability. For pressure estimation, it combines the dimension-adaptive stochastic collocation method on Smolyak sparse grids and the Kronrod–Patterson–Hermite nested quadrature formulas. For saturation estimation, an additional stage is developed, in which the pressure and velocity samples are first generated by the sparse grid interpolation and then substituted into the transport equation to solve for the saturation samples, to address the low regularity problem of the saturation. Numerical examples are presented for multiphase flow with stochastic permeability fields to demonstrate accuracy and efficiencymore » of the proposed two-stage adaptive stochastic collocation method on nested sparse grids.« less

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

A Structured and Unstructured grid Relocatable ocean platform for Forecasting (SURF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trotta, Francesco; Fenu, Elisa; Pinardi, Nadia; Bruciaferri, Diego; Giacomelli, Luca; Federico, Ivan; Coppini, Giovanni

2016-11-01

We present a numerical platform named Structured and Unstructured grid Relocatable ocean platform for Forecasting (SURF). The platform is developed for short-time forecasts and is designed to be embedded in any region of the large-scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) via downscaling. We employ CTD data collected during a campaign around the Elba island to calibrate and validate SURF. The model requires an initial spin up period of a few days in order to adapt the initial interpolated fields and the subsequent solutions to the higher-resolution nested grids adopted by SURF. Through a comparison with the CTD data, we quantify the improvement obtained by SURF model compared to the coarse-resolution MFS model.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

A Cell-Centered Multigrid Algorithm for All Grid Sizes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gjesdal, Thor

1996-01-01

Multigrid methods are optimal; that is, their rate of convergence is independent of the number of grid points, because they use a nested sequence of coarse grids to represent different scales of the solution. This nesting does, however, usually lead to certain restrictions of the permissible size of the discretised problem. In cases where the modeler is free to specify the whole problem, such constraints are of little importance because they can be taken into consideration from the outset. We consider the situation in which there are other competing constraints on the resolution. These restrictions may stem from the physical problem (e.g., if the discretised operator contains experimental data measured on a fixed grid) or from the need to avoid limitations set by the hardware. In this paper we discuss a modification to the cell-centered multigrid algorithm, so that it can be used br problems with any resolution. We discuss in particular a coarsening strategy and choice of intergrid transfer operators that can handle grids with both an even or odd number of cells. The method is described and applied to linear equations obtained by discretization of two- and three-dimensional second-order elliptic PDEs.

WRF nested large-eddy simulations of deep convection during SEAC4RS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, Nicholas Kyle

Deep convection is an important component of atmospheric circulations that affects many aspects of weather and climate. Therefore, improved understanding and realistic simulations of deep convection are critical to both operational and climate forecasts. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) often are used with observations to enhance understanding of convective processes. This study develops and evaluates a nested-LES method using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our goal is to evaluate the extent to which the WRF nested-LES approach is useful for studying deep convection during a real-world case. The method was applied on 2 September 2013, a day of continental convection having a robust set of ground and airborne data available for evaluation. A three domain mesoscale WRF simulation is run first. Then, the finest mesoscale output (1.35 km grid length) is used to separately drive nested-LES domains with grid lengths of 450 and 150 m. Results reveal that the nested-LES approach reasonably simulates a broad spectrum of observations, from reflectivity distributions to vertical velocity profiles, during the study period. However, reducing the grid spacing does not necessarily improve results for our case, with the 450 m simulation outperforming the 150 m version. We find that simulated updrafts in the 150 m simulation are too narrow to overcome the negative effects of entrainment, thereby generating convection that is weaker than observed. Increasing the sub-grid mixing length in the 150 m simulation leads to deeper, more realistic convection, but comes at the expense of delaying the onset of the convection. Overall, results show that both the 450 m and 150 m simulations are influenced considerably by the choice of sub-grid mixing length used in the LES turbulence closure. Finally, the simulations and observations are used to study the processes forcing strong midlevel cloud-edge downdrafts that were observed on 2 September. Results suggest that these downdrafts are forced by evaporative cooling due to mixing near cloud edge and by vertical perturbation pressure gradient forces acting to restore mass continuity around neighboring updrafts. We conclude that the WRF nested-LES approach provides an effective method for studying deep convection for our real-world case. The method can be used to provide insight into physical processes that are important to understanding observations. The WRF nested-LES approach could be adapted for other case studies in which high-resolution observations are available for validation.

Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

2016-04-01

In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict, particularly in the eastern boundary for temperature and geopotential height. A correlation analysis on the synoptic scale evaluates the relationship between the GCM and the RCM. The beginning of the simulations shows a great consistency of the two models. When dominant dynamics apply, RCM inherits most of the GCM signal with a consistent spatial structure. On the contrary, when the atmospheric circulation is weak, there are not that many effects transferred from the GCM to the RCM. When the RCM has its own dynamics, the boundary conflict is more pronounced. Winter season is chosen for the two-way nesting test due to the predominant role of the atmospheric dynamics in winter. The new approach of a two-way nesting system reduces boundary bias, having a influence in some cases in climate model projections. The effect of two-way nesting is enhanced when using a finer grid.

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in the lower troposphere. Outside Africa over the Atlantic or in Europe the effect of the 2-way nesting becomes visible after some days of simulation. The changes in error measures are not as clear as in the nesting region itself but still improvements for some variables at different altitudes are evident, most likely due to a better representation of African easterly waves and Rossby waves. This work shows the importance of the West African region for global weather forecasts and the potential of convective permitting modelling in this region to improve the forecasts even far away from Africa in the future.

Inverse modeling of pan-Arctic methane emissions at high spatial resolution: what can we learn from assimilating satellite retrievals and using different process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Henze, Daven K.

Understanding methane emissions from the Arctic, a fast-warming carbon reservoir, is important for projecting future changes in the global methane cycle. Here we optimized methane emissions from north of 60° N (pan-Arctic) regions using a nested-grid high-resolution inverse model that assimilates both high-precision surface measurements and column-average SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogrphY (SCIAMACHY) satellite retrievals of methane mole fraction. For the first time, methane emissions from lakes were integrated into an atmospheric transport and inversion estimate, together with prior wetland emissions estimated with six biogeochemical models. In our estimates, in 2005, global methane emissions were in the range ofmore » 496.4–511.5 Tg yr −1, and pan-Arctic methane emissions were in the range of 11.9–28.5 Tg yr −1. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic wetlands and lakes were 5.5–14.2 and 2.4–14.2 Tg yr −1, respectively. Methane emissions from Siberian wetlands and lakes are the largest and also have the largest uncertainty. Our results indicate that the uncertainty introduced by different wetland models could be much larger than the uncertainty of each inversion. We also show that assimilating satellite retrievals can reduce the uncertainty of the nested-grid inversions. The significance of lake emissions cannot be identified across the pan-Arctic by high-resolution inversions, but it is possible to identify high lake emissions from some specific regions. In contrast to global inversions, high-resolution nested-grid inversions perform better in estimating near-surface methane concentrations.« less

Inverse modeling of pan-Arctic methane emissions at high spatial resolution: what can we learn from assimilating satellite retrievals and using different process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models?

DOE PAGES

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Henze, Daven K.; ...

2016-10-12

Understanding methane emissions from the Arctic, a fast-warming carbon reservoir, is important for projecting future changes in the global methane cycle. Here we optimized methane emissions from north of 60° N (pan-Arctic) regions using a nested-grid high-resolution inverse model that assimilates both high-precision surface measurements and column-average SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogrphY (SCIAMACHY) satellite retrievals of methane mole fraction. For the first time, methane emissions from lakes were integrated into an atmospheric transport and inversion estimate, together with prior wetland emissions estimated with six biogeochemical models. In our estimates, in 2005, global methane emissions were in the range ofmore » 496.4–511.5 Tg yr −1, and pan-Arctic methane emissions were in the range of 11.9–28.5 Tg yr −1. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic wetlands and lakes were 5.5–14.2 and 2.4–14.2 Tg yr −1, respectively. Methane emissions from Siberian wetlands and lakes are the largest and also have the largest uncertainty. Our results indicate that the uncertainty introduced by different wetland models could be much larger than the uncertainty of each inversion. We also show that assimilating satellite retrievals can reduce the uncertainty of the nested-grid inversions. The significance of lake emissions cannot be identified across the pan-Arctic by high-resolution inversions, but it is possible to identify high lake emissions from some specific regions. In contrast to global inversions, high-resolution nested-grid inversions perform better in estimating near-surface methane concentrations.« less

Observations and Modelling of Winds and Waves during the Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment. Report 1. Intensive Observation Period IOP-1, 20-31 October 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

wave buoy provided by SEATEX, Norway (Figure 3). The modified Mills-cross array was designed to provide spatial estimates of the variation in wave, wind... designed for SWADE to examine the wave physics at different spatial and temporal scales, and the usefulness of a nested system. Each grid is supposed to...field specification. SWADE Model This high-resolution grid was designed to simulate the small scale wave physics and to improve and verify the source

Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 SEP 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00...source of barotropic-to-baroclinic tidal energy conversion. In the region around the islands, the internal tidal energy is as much as 50% of the...PacIOOS currently employs four nested ROMS models: 4km island-chain, 1km Oahu, 100m Oahu South-Shore, and 80m Oahu West-Coast. Each grid is nested in

Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

2016-08-01

Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.

Modeling Storm-Induced Inundation on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta for Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravens, T. M.; Allen, J.

2012-12-01

The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a large delta on the west coast of Alaska and one of the few remaining deltas that is largely free of anthropogenic impacts. The delta hosts a wide-range of nesting birds including the endangered Spectacled Eider. The delta plain, with an elevation of about 2 m (m.s.l.) - and an average tidal range of 2.7 m - is subject to frequent inundation by storm surges originating from the adjacent Bering Sea. Here, we report on our efforts to validate a storm-surge modeling system consisting of a course-grid ADCIRC model covering the Bering and Chukchi Seas and a Delft3D fine-grid model of the southern YK Delta. The storm surge models are validated based on measured water levels from 2007-2010 and using satellite observations of inundation due to large storms in 2005 and 2006. About 10 storms over the past 30 years are modeled. Based on model output, we computed a spatially distributed inundation index which is a time-integral of water level throughout the fine-grid model domain from individual storms and from the 30 year period. In order to examine the change in inundation in future climates, the models of the 30 year period were re-run assuming a 1 and 2 meter sea level rise. The impact of climate change on inundation frequency and intensity - using the inundation index - is reported. Future work will relate the present and projected inundation index to ecological parameters such as bird-nest concentration and vegetation type.

Relationships of surrounding riparian habitat to nest-box use and reproductive outcome in House Wrens

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

1989-01-01

I assessed relationships among habitat structure, nest-site selection, and reproductive outcome of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) by establishing three nest-box grids in riparian woodlands in southeastern Wyoming. Over a 3-year period, 37% of the boxes contained House Wren nests; 20% contained unused nests built by male House Wrens; and 42% were never used by wrens....

Multidimensional radiative transfer with multilevel atoms. II. The non-linear multigrid method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabiani Bendicho, P.; Trujillo Bueno, J.; Auer, L.

1997-08-01

A new iterative method for solving non-LTE multilevel radiative transfer (RT) problems in 1D, 2D or 3D geometries is presented. The scheme obtains the self-consistent solution of the kinetic and RT equations at the cost of only a few (<10) formal solutions of the RT equation. It combines, for the first time, non-linear multigrid iteration (Brandt, 1977, Math. Comp. 31, 333; Hackbush, 1985, Multi-Grid Methods and Applications, springer-Verlag, Berlin), an efficient multilevel RT scheme based on Gauss-Seidel iterations (cf. Trujillo Bueno & Fabiani Bendicho, 1995ApJ...455..646T), and accurate short-characteristics formal solution techniques. By combining a valid stopping criterion with a nested-grid strategy a converged solution with the desired true error is automatically guaranteed. Contrary to the current operator splitting methods the very high convergence speed of the new RT method does not deteriorate when the grid spatial resolution is increased. With this non-linear multigrid method non-LTE problems discretized on N grid points are solved in O(N) operations. The nested multigrid RT method presented here is, thus, particularly attractive in complicated multilevel transfer problems where small grid-sizes are required. The properties of the method are analyzed both analytically and with illustrative multilevel calculations for Ca II in 1D and 2D schematic model atmospheres.

Improving sub-grid scale accuracy of boundary features in regional finite-difference models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panday, Sorab; Langevin, Christian D.

2012-01-01

As an alternative to grid refinement, the concept of a ghost node, which was developed for nested grid applications, has been extended towards improving sub-grid scale accuracy of flow to conduits, wells, rivers or other boundary features that interact with a finite-difference groundwater flow model. The formulation is presented for correcting the regular finite-difference groundwater flow equations for confined and unconfined cases, with or without Newton Raphson linearization of the nonlinearities, to include the Ghost Node Correction (GNC) for location displacement. The correction may be applied on the right-hand side vector for a symmetric finite-difference Picard implementation, or on the left-hand side matrix for an implicit but asymmetric implementation. The finite-difference matrix connectivity structure may be maintained for an implicit implementation by only selecting contributing nodes that are a part of the finite-difference connectivity. Proof of concept example problems are provided to demonstrate the improved accuracy that may be achieved through sub-grid scale corrections using the GNC schemes.

Continuous attractor network models of grid cell firing based on excitatory–inhibitory interactions

PubMed Central

Shipston‐Sharman, Oliver; Solanka, Lukas

2016-01-01

Abstract Neurons in the medial entorhinal cortex encode location through spatial firing fields that have a grid‐like organisation. The challenge of identifying mechanisms for grid firing has been addressed through experimental and theoretical investigations of medial entorhinal circuits. Here, we discuss evidence for continuous attractor network models that account for grid firing by synaptic interactions between excitatory and inhibitory cells. These models assume that grid‐like firing patterns are the result of computation of location from velocity inputs, with additional spatial input required to oppose drift in the attractor state. We focus on properties of continuous attractor networks that are revealed by explicitly considering excitatory and inhibitory neurons, their connectivity and their membrane potential dynamics. Models at this level of detail can account for theta‐nested gamma oscillations as well as grid firing, predict spatial firing of interneurons as well as excitatory cells, show how gamma oscillations can be modulated independently from spatial computations, reveal critical roles for neuronal noise, and demonstrate that only a subset of excitatory cells in a network need have grid‐like firing fields. Evaluating experimental data against predictions from detailed network models will be important for establishing the mechanisms mediating grid firing. PMID:27870120

Multiscale Approach to Small River Plumes off California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basdurak, N. B.; Largier, J. L.; Nidzieko, N.

2012-12-01

While larger scale plumes have received significant attention, the dynamics of plumes associated with small rivers typical of California are little studied. Since small streams are not dominated by a momentum flux, their plumes are more susceptible to conditions in the coastal ocean such as wind and waves. In order to correctly model water transport at smaller scales, there is a need to capture larger scale processes. To do this, one-way nested grids with varying grid resolution (1 km and 10 m for the parent and the child grid respectively) were constructed. CENCOOS (Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System) model results were used as boundary conditions to the parent grid. Semi-idealized model results for Santa Rosa Creek, California are presented from an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.0), a three-dimensional, free-surface, terrain-following numerical model. In these preliminary results, the interaction between tides, winds, and buoyancy forcing in plume dynamics is explored for scenarios including different strengths of freshwater flow with different modes (steady and pulsed). Seasonal changes in transport dynamics and dispersion patterns are analyzed.

The Amundsen Sea Sector Data Set: Applications with UMISM: Where and How Much WATER? What WILL happen in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.

2006-12-01

Recent extraordinary programs of the Airborne Geophysical survey of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (AGASEA), by University of Texas [holt06] and British Antarctic Survey [vaughan06] teams in the astral summers of 2004/2005, collected some 75,000 km of flight-line data measuring ice thickness with radar sounders and surface elevation with laser or radar altimeters. Recently these data have been made available as a 5-km gridded data set in a format convenient for modeling. We apply the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM) in its embedded mode [fastook04b] to do high-resolution analysis of the velocity distribution within the Amundsen Catchment. We show that the model adequately captures velocity distributions measured by SAR radar [rignot04]. We show the distribution of basal water predicted by the model [fastook97, johnson99, johnson02b, johnson02]. We hope that, within the limitations of our grounding line parameterization, the model has predictive capabilities and will show some examples of possible future retreat. The nest of embedded models begins with a 40 km grid of the entire ice sheet. Embedded in this is a 10 km grid that includes the entire AGASEA measurement area. Nested inside this medium-resolution grid are two 5 km grids encompassing Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers. This procedure allows us to obtain the highest- resolution results with very reasonable runtimes. A cycle of growth to an LGM configuration followed by retreat to the present configuration is run for this nest of embedded grids. Advance and retreat is controlled by a "thinning-at-the-grounding-line" parameter (the WEERTMAN) which is coupled to the Vostok Core temperature proxy. Full resolution 5-km results for thickness, velocity, and water distribution are shown for the two focused embedded grids. We also present a plausible, but perhaps extreme, scenario of future retreat that might arise if conditions ever returned to the state that produced the large retreat from the LGM configuration. One of these scenarios produces complete collapse of the WAIS in a few thousand years, while the other demonstrates how the "weak underbelly" might collapse [hughes81c]. [fastook97] J.L. Fastook. 4th Annual WAIS Initiative Workshop, 10-12 Sept. 1997, Sterling, Virginia, 1997. [fastook04b] J.L. Fastook and A. Sargent. 11h Annual WAIS Initiative Workshop, Sterling, Virginia, 2004. [holt06] J.W. Holt, et al.. Geophys. Res. Lett., L09502(doi:10.1029/2005GL025561), 2006. [hughes81c] T. Hughes. Journal of Glaciology, 27:518--521, 1981. [johnson02] Jesse Johnson and James L. Fastook. Quaternary International, 95-96:65--74, 2002. [johnson99] Jesse Johnson, Slawek Tulaczyk, and J.L. Fastook. 6th Annual WAIS Initiative Workshop, 15-18 Sept. 1999, Sterling, Virginia, 1999. [johnson02b] Jesse V. Johnson. A basal water model for ice sheets. PhD thesis, Department Physcs, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, 2002. [rignot04] E. Rignot, et al., Annals of Glaciology, 39:231--237, 2004. [vaughan06] D.G. Vaughan, et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., doi 10.1029/2005GL025588, 2006.

Rapid inundation estimates at harbor scale using tsunami wave heights offshore simulation and coastal amplification laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hebert, H.

2013-12-01

Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and observation when available), in order to check to which extent the simple approach based on the amplification laws can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law).

Rapid inundation estimates using coastal amplification laws in the western Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Hébert, Hélène

2014-05-01

Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake events and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and observation when available), in order to check to which extent the simple approach based on the amplification laws can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law).

Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

2018-01-01

Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

Meso- to micro-scale coupled simulations of flow over complex terrain at the Perdigao site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neher, J.; van Veen, L.; Chow, F. K.; Mirocha, J. D.; Lundquist, J. K.

2017-12-01

In this work, the site of the 2017 Perdigao field campaign is analyzed with high resolution large-eddy simulations generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a coupled mesoscale to microscale model. The fine topographic features of the site, with its ridgelines a mere 1.2 km apart, the occurrence of intermittent turbulence at night, and the presence of a wind turbine on one of the ridgelines pose a challenge for many current numerical models. Key test cases in the observational data that demonstrate these modelling difficulties are identified, and advanced modeling techniques for overcoming these issues in the WRF model are presented. These techniques include vertical grid nesting for control of the grid aspect ratio, the cell perturbation method for accelerating the generation of turbulence at the boundary, the dynamic reconstruction model as a closure model that allows for backscatter of turbulence, and the actuator disk model for representing the turbine wake. Multiple nesting configurations are considered, with special consideration given to spanning the `grey zone' where neither PBL nor LES closures are effective. Comparisons between model results and measured sounding, meteorological tower, and Lidar data are used to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques, and the model results are evaluated to provide a broader view of the flow field and the turbine wake interactions at the site.

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi-scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10,000 nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringelman, Kevin M.; Eadie, John M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Sih, Andrew; Loughman, Daniel L.; Yarris, Gregory S.; Oldenburger, Shaun L.; McLandress, M. Robert

2017-01-01

Many avian species are behaviorally-plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low-risk areas increased, and high-risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between-year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16-ha grid cells and 4-ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year-to-year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.

Investigating the Effects of Grid Resolution of WRF Model for Simulating the Atmosphere for use in the Study of Wake Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prince, Alyssa; Trout, Joseph; di Mercurio, Alexis

2017-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a nested-grid, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system maintained by the Developmental Testbed Center. The model simulates the atmosphere by integrating partial differential equations, which use the conservation of horizontal momentum, conservation of thermal energy, and conservation of mass along with the ideal gas law. This research investigated the possible use of WRF in investigating the effects of weather on wing tip wake turbulence. This poster shows the results of an investigation into the accuracy of WRF using different grid resolutions. Several atmospheric conditions were modeled using different grid resolutions. In general, the higher the grid resolution, the better the simulation, but the longer the model run time. This research was supported by Dr. Manuel A. Rios, Ph.D. (FAA) and the grant ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA'' (13-G-006). Dr. Manuel A. Rios, Ph.D. (FAA), and the grant ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''

CFD modelling of Po River morphodynamics affected by bridge piers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nones, Michael; Guerrero, Massimo; Ruther, Nils; Baranya, Sandor

2017-04-01

The paper presents the numerical modelling of the hydromorphological evolution of a 10-km reach of the Po River close to Ostiglia in Italy, affected by the presence of a railway bridge. The 3D simulation is performed using the freely available code SSIIM, developed at the University of Science and Technology in Trondheim in Norway. The domain consists of an unstructured grid with rectangular meshes having a dimension of 50x50 meters, with a nested detailed grid (5x5 m) around the piers. Preliminary results show the capability of the model in reproducing the behaviour of the reach, both in terms of liquid flow and morphodynamics, if compared with historical data measured along this watercourse. For the future, as a part of the Italian national project INFRASAFE, additional simulations will be performed to calibrate the model, changing the analyzed domain and used grids, and imposing, as boundary conditions, new data measured directly on the field with traditional and innovative techniques.

Photochemical grid model performance with varying horizontal grid resolution and sub-grid plume treatment for the Martins Creek near-field SO2 study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Kirk R.; Hawkins, Andy; Kelly, James T.

2014-12-01

Near source modeling is needed to assess primary and secondary pollutant impacts from single sources and single source complexes. Source-receptor relationships need to be resolved from tens of meters to tens of kilometers. Dispersion models are typically applied for near-source primary pollutant impacts but lack complex photochemistry. Photochemical models provide a realistic chemical environment but are typically applied using grid cell sizes that may be larger than the distance between sources and receptors. It is important to understand the impacts of grid resolution and sub-grid plume treatments on photochemical modeling of near-source primary pollution gradients. Here, the CAMx photochemical grid model is applied using multiple grid resolutions and sub-grid plume treatment for SO2 and compared with a receptor mesonet largely impacted by nearby sources approximately 3-17 km away in a complex terrain environment. Measurements are compared with model estimates of SO2 at 4- and 1-km resolution, both with and without sub-grid plume treatment and inclusion of finer two-way grid nests. Annual average estimated SO2 mixing ratios are highest nearest the sources and decrease as distance from the sources increase. In general, CAMx estimates of SO2 do not compare well with the near-source observations when paired in space and time. Given the proximity of these sources and receptors, accuracy in wind vector estimation is critical for applications that pair pollutant predictions and observations in time and space. In typical permit applications, predictions and observations are not paired in time and space and the entire distributions of each are directly compared. Using this approach, model estimates using 1-km grid resolution best match the distribution of observations and are most comparable to similar studies that used dispersion and Lagrangian modeling systems. Model-estimated SO2 increases as grid cell size decreases from 4 km to 250 m. However, it is notable that the 1-km model estimates using 1-km meteorological model input are higher than the 1-km model simulation that used interpolated 4-km meteorology. The inclusion of sub-grid plume treatment did not improve model skill in predicting SO2 in time and space and generally acts to keep emitted mass aloft.

Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess megacity export of pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siour, G.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Coll, I.; Meleux, F.

2013-08-01

In Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs), spatial scale interactions are often represented through off-line coupling between large and small scale models. However, those nested configurations cannot give account of the impact of the local scale on its surroundings. This issue can be critical in areas exposed to air mass recirculation (sea breeze cells) or around regions with sharp pollutant emission gradients (large cities). Such phenomena can still be captured by the mean of adaptive gridding, two-way nesting or using model nudging, but these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of a simple alternative multi-scale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid, in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method, called "stretching" or "zooming", consists in the introduction of local zooms in a single chemistry-transport simulation. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (∼1 km resolution) to the continental area (∼50 km resolution). The CHIMERE model was run over a continental European domain, zoomed over the BeNeLux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) area. We demonstrate that, compared with one-way nesting, the zooming method allows the expression of a significant feedback of the refined domain towards the large scale: around the city cluster of BeNeLuX, NO2 and O3 scores are improved. NO2 variability around BeNeLux is also better accounted for, and the net primary pollutant flux transported back towards BeNeLux is reduced. Although the results could not be validated for ozone over BeNeLux, we show that the zooming approach provides a simple and immediate way to better represent scale interactions within a CTM, and constitutes a useful tool for apprehending the hot topic of megacities within their continental environment.

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Suarez, Max J.

2000-01-01

The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

USING MM5V3 WITH ETA ANALYSES FOR AIR-QUALITY MODELING AT THE EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Efforts have been underway since MM5v3 was released in July 1999 to set up air-quality simulations using Eta analyses as background fields. Our previous simulations used a one-way quadruple-nested set of domains with horizontal grid spacing of 108, 36, 12 and 4 km. With Eta a...

Rapid inundation estimates at harbor scale using tsunami wave heights offshore simulation and Green's law approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Loevenbruck, Anne

2013-04-01

Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response on the scale of an individual harbor. In fact, when facing the problem of the interaction of the tsunami wavefield with a shoreline, any numerical simulation must be performed over an increasingly fine grid, which in turn mandates a reduced time step, and the use of a fully non-linear code. Such calculations become then prohibitively time-consuming, which is clearly unacceptable in the framework of real-time warning. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami wave heights in high seas, and tsunami warning maps at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these deep wave heights simulations. The method involves an empirical correction relation derived from Green's law, expressing conservation of wave energy flux to extend the gridded wave field into the harbor with respect to the nearby deep-water grid node. The main limitation of this method is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, a set of synthetic mareograms is calculated for both fake and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids characterized by a coarse resolution over deep water regions and an increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). This synthetic dataset is then used to approximate the empirical parameters of the correction equation. Results of inundation estimates in several french Mediterranean harbors obtained with the fast "Green's law - derived" method are presented and compared with values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations.

The Coastal Dynamics of Heterogeneous Sedimentary Environments: Numerical Modeling of Nearshore Hydrodynamics and Sediment Transport

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-10

supplied boundary data for Hurricane Katrina (Keen, Furukawa et al. 2006; Keen, Slingerland et al. 2010). The numerical models discussed in this report...explicitly. NCOM can be nested to a coarse-grid model to supply boundary conditions at the open boundary of the domain. NCOM has been validated at global...circulation study of Mississippi Sound (Keen 2002), which supplied steady currents for the nearshore erosion problem discussed in this report

A nested-grid limited-area model for short term weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, V. C.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.; Coats, G. D.

1983-01-01

The present investigation is concerned with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS), incorporating the sigma-coordinate primitive equations. The present version of this model (MASS 3.0) has 14 vertical layers, with the upper boundary at 100 mb. There are 128 x 96 grid points in each layer. The earlier version of this model (MASS 2.0) has been described by Kaplan et al. (1982). The current investigation provides a summary of major revisions to that version and a description of the parameterization schemes which are presently included in the model. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is considered, taking into account aspects of generalized similarity theory and free convection, the surface energy budget, the surface moisture budget, and prognostic equations for the depth h of the PBL. A cloud model is discussed, giving attention to stable precipitation, and cumulus convection.

Parallel simulation of tsunami inundation on a large-scale supercomputer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2013-12-01

An accurate prediction of tsunami inundation is important for disaster mitigation purposes. One approach is to approximate the tsunami wave source through an instant inversion analysis using real-time observation data (e.g., Tsushima et al., 2009) and then use the resulting wave source data in an instant tsunami inundation simulation. However, a bottleneck of this approach is the large computational cost of the non-linear inundation simulation and the computational power of recent massively parallel supercomputers is helpful to enable faster than real-time execution of a tsunami inundation simulation. Parallel computers have become approximately 1000 times faster in 10 years (www.top500.org), and so it is expected that very fast parallel computers will be more and more prevalent in the near future. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to efficiently conduct a tsunami simulation on parallel computers. In this study, we are targeting very fast tsunami inundation simulations on the K computer, currently the fastest Japanese supercomputer, which has a theoretical peak performance of 11.2 PFLOPS. One computing node of the K computer consists of 1 CPU with 8 cores that share memory, and the nodes are connected through a high-performance torus-mesh network. The K computer is designed for distributed-memory parallel computation, so we have developed a parallel tsunami model. Our model is based on TUNAMI-N2 model of Tohoku University, which is based on a leap-frog finite difference method. A grid nesting scheme is employed to apply high-resolution grids only at the coastal regions. To balance the computation load of each CPU in the parallelization, CPUs are first allocated to each nested layer in proportion to the number of grid points of the nested layer. Using CPUs allocated to each layer, 1-D domain decomposition is performed on each layer. In the parallel computation, three types of communication are necessary: (1) communication to adjacent neighbours for the finite difference calculation, (2) communication between adjacent layers for the calculations to connect each layer, and (3) global communication to obtain the time step which satisfies the CFL condition in the whole domain. A preliminary test on the K computer showed the parallel efficiency on 1024 cores was 57% relative to 64 cores. We estimate that the parallel efficiency will be considerably improved by applying a 2-D domain decomposition instead of the present 1-D domain decomposition in future work. The present parallel tsunami model was applied to the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami. The coarsest resolution layer covers a 758 km × 1155 km region with a 405 m grid spacing. A nesting of five layers was used with the resolution ratio of 1/3 between nested layers. The finest resolution region has 5 m resolution and covers most of the coastal region of Sendai city. To complete 2 hours of simulation time, the serial (non-parallel) computation took approximately 4 days on a workstation. To complete the same simulation on 1024 cores of the K computer, it took 45 minutes which is more than two times faster than real-time. This presentation discusses the updated parallel computational performance and the efficient use of the K computer when considering the characteristics of the tsunami inundation simulation model in relation to the characteristics and capabilities of the K computer.

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Pagowski, M.; Leavesley, G.H.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

A high resolution WRF model for wind energy forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao

2010-05-01

The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the diffusion constant caused damping of the unrealistic fluctuations, but did not completely solve the problem. Using two-way nesting also mitigated the unrealistic fluctuations significantly. It can be concluded that for real case LES modelling of wind farm circulations, care should be taken to ensure the consistency between the mesoscale weather forcing and LES models to avoid exciting spurious noise along the forcing boundary. The development of algorithms that adequately model the sub-grid-scale mixing that cannot be resolved by LES models is an important area for further research. References Liu, Y. Y._W. Liu, W. Y.Y. Cheng, W. Wu, T. T. Warner and K. Parks, 2009: Simulating intra-farm wind variations with the WRF-RTFDDA-LES modeling system. 10th WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, C, USA. June 23 - 26, 2009. Skamarock, W., J. Dudhia, D.O. Gill, D.M. Barker, M.G.Duda, X-Y. Huang, W. Wang and J.G. Powers, A Description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3, NCAR Technical Note TN-475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.

Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Donghai; Minnis, Patrick

2004-01-01

To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

Influence of model grid size on the simulation of PM2.5 and the related excess mortality in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, D.; Ueda, K.; Ng, C. F.; Takami, A.; Ariga, T.; Matsuhashi, K.; Nakajima, T.

2016-12-01

Aerosols, especially PM2.5, can affect air pollution, climate change, and human health. The estimation of health impacts due to PM2.5 is often performed using global and regional aerosol transport models with various horizontal resolutions. To investigate the dependence of the simulated PM2.5 on model grid sizes, we executed two simulations using a high-resolution model ( 10km; HRM) and a low-resolution model ( 100km; LRM, which is a typical value for general circulation models). In this study, we used a global-to-regional atmospheric transport model to simulate PM2.5 in Japan with a stretched grid system in HRM and a uniform grid system in LRM for the present (the 2000) and the future (the 2030, as proposed by the Representative Concentrations Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5). These calculations were performed by nudging meteorological fields obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled model and providing emission inventories used in the coupled model. After correcting for bias, we calculated the excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 for the elderly. Results showed the LRM underestimated by approximately 30 % (of PM2.5 concentrations in the 2000 and 2030), approximately 60 % (excess mortality in the 2000) and approximately 90 % (excess mortality in 2030) compared to the HRM results. The estimation of excess mortality therefore performed better with high-resolution grid sizes. In addition, we also found that our nesting method could be a useful tool to obtain better estimation results.

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, P.

1992-01-01

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation have been conducted in three cases. 1. A process-oriented modeling study is conducted to study the interaction of a western boundary current (WBC) with coastal water, and its responses to upstream topographic irregularities. It is hypothesized that the interaction of propagating WBC frontal waves and topographic Rossby waves are responsible for upstream variability. 2. A simulation of meanders and eddies in the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) for February and March of 1988 is conducted with a newly developed nested dynamic interactive model. The model employs a coarse-grid, large domain to account formore » non-local forcing and a fine-grid nested domain to resolve meanders and eddies. The model is forced by wind stresses, heat fluxes and atmospheric pressure corresponding Feb/March of 1988, and accounts for river/fjord discharges, open ocean inflow and outflow, and M[sub 2] tides. The simulation reproduced fairly well the observed circulation, tides, and salinity features in the North Sea, Norwegian Trench and NCC region in the large domain and fairly realistic meanders and eddies in the NCC in the nested region. 3. A methodology for practical coastal ocean hindcast/forecast is developed, taking advantage of the disparate time scales of various forcing and considering wind to be the dominant factor in affecting density fluctuation in the time scale of 1 to 10 days. The density field obtained from a prognostic simulation is analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function method (EOF), and correlated with the wind; these information are then used to drive a circulation model which excludes the density calculation. The method is applied to hindcast the circulation in the New York Bight for spring and summer season of 1988. The hindcast fields compare favorably with the results obtained from the prognostic circulation model.« less

LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

2017-11-01

The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

Grid refinement in Cartesian coordinates for groundwater flow models using the divergence theorem and Taylor's series.

PubMed

Mansour, M M; Spink, A E F

2013-01-01

Grid refinement is introduced in a numerical groundwater model to increase the accuracy of the solution over local areas without compromising the run time of the model. Numerical methods developed for grid refinement suffered certain drawbacks, for example, deficiencies in the implemented interpolation technique; the non-reciprocity in head calculations or flow calculations; lack of accuracy resulting from high truncation errors, and numerical problems resulting from the construction of elongated meshes. A refinement scheme based on the divergence theorem and Taylor's expansions is presented in this article. This scheme is based on the work of De Marsily (1986) but includes more terms of the Taylor's series to improve the numerical solution. In this scheme, flow reciprocity is maintained and high order of refinement was achievable. The new numerical method is applied to simulate groundwater flows in homogeneous and heterogeneous confined aquifers. It produced results with acceptable degrees of accuracy. This method shows the potential for its application to solving groundwater heads over nested meshes with irregular shapes. © 2012, British Geological Survey © NERC 2012. Ground Water © 2012, National GroundWater Association.

Noise promotes independent control of gamma oscillations and grid firing within recurrent attractor networks

PubMed Central

Solanka, Lukas; van Rossum, Mark CW; Nolan, Matthew F

2015-01-01

Neural computations underlying cognitive functions require calibration of the strength of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic connections and are associated with modulation of gamma frequency oscillations in network activity. However, principles relating gamma oscillations, synaptic strength and circuit computations are unclear. We address this in attractor network models that account for grid firing and theta-nested gamma oscillations in the medial entorhinal cortex. We show that moderate intrinsic noise massively increases the range of synaptic strengths supporting gamma oscillations and grid computation. With moderate noise, variation in excitatory or inhibitory synaptic strength tunes the amplitude and frequency of gamma activity without disrupting grid firing. This beneficial role for noise results from disruption of epileptic-like network states. Thus, moderate noise promotes independent control of multiplexed firing rate- and gamma-based computational mechanisms. Our results have implications for tuning of normal circuit function and for disorders associated with changes in gamma oscillations and synaptic strength. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.06444.001 PMID:26146940

Grid-based Meteorological and Crisis Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hluchy, Ladislav; Bartok, Juraj; Tran, Viet; Lucny, Andrej; Gazak, Martin

2010-05-01

We present several applications from domain of meteorology and crisis management we developed and/or plan to develop. Particularly, we present IMS Model Suite - a complex software system designed to address the needs of accurate forecast of weather and hazardous weather phenomena, environmental pollution assessment, prediction of consequences of nuclear accident and radiological emergency. We discuss requirements on computational means and our experiences how to meet them by grid computing. The process of a pollution assessment and prediction of the consequences in case of radiological emergence results in complex data-flows and work-flows among databases, models and simulation tools (geographical databases, meteorological and dispersion models, etc.). A pollution assessment and prediction requires running of 3D meteorological model (4 nests with resolution from 50 km to 1.8 km centered on nuclear power plant site, 38 vertical levels) as well as running of the dispersion model performing the simulation of the release transport and deposition of the pollutant with respect to the numeric weather prediction data, released material description, topography, land use description and user defined simulation scenario. Several post-processing options can be selected according to particular situation (e.g. doses calculation). Another example is a forecasting of fog as one of the meteorological phenomena hazardous to the aviation as well as road traffic. It requires complicated physical model and high resolution meteorological modeling due to its dependence on local conditions (precise topography, shorelines and land use classes). An installed fog modeling system requires a 4 time nested parallelized 3D meteorological model with 1.8 km horizontal resolution and 42 levels vertically (approx. 1 million points in 3D space) to be run four times daily. The 3D model outputs and multitude of local measurements are utilized by SPMD-parallelized 1D fog model run every hour. The fog forecast model is a subject of the parameterization and parameter optimization before its real deployment. The parameter optimization requires tens of evaluations of the parameterized model accuracy and each evaluation of the model parameters requires re-running of the hundreds of meteorological situations collected over the years and comparison of the model output with the observed data. The architecture and inherent heterogeneity of both examples and their computational complexity and their interfaces to other systems and services make them well suited for decomposition into a set of web and grid services. Such decomposition has been performed within several projects we participated or participate in cooperation with academic sphere, namely int.eu.grid (dispersion model deployed as a pilot application to an interactive grid), SEMCO-WS (semantic composition of the web and grid services), DMM (development of a significant meteorological phenomena prediction system based on the data mining), VEGA 2009-2011 and EGEE III. We present useful and practical applications of technologies of high performance computing. The use of grid technology provides access to much higher computation power not only for modeling and simulation, but also for the model parameterization and validation. This results in the model parameters optimization and more accurate simulation outputs. Having taken into account that the simulations are used for the aviation, road traffic and crisis management, even small improvement in accuracy of predictions may result in significant improvement of safety as well as cost reduction. We found grid computing useful for our applications. We are satisfied with this technology and our experience encourages us to extend its use. Within an ongoing project (DMM) we plan to include processing of satellite images which extends our requirement on computation very rapidly. We believe that thanks to grid computing we are able to handle the job almost in real time.

High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands - Validation of the historical run from 2003 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Newman, A. J.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Monaghan, A. J.

2016-12-01

A high-resolution (a 1.5 km grid spacing domain nested within a 4.5 km grid spacing domain) 10-year regional climate simulation over the entire Hawaiian archipelago is being conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1. Numerical sensitivity simulations of the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, a filed experiment from July to August in 1990) showed that the simulated precipitation properties are sensitive to initial and lateral boundary conditions, sea surface temperature (SST), land surface models, vertical resolution and cloud droplet concentration. The validations of model simulated statistics of the trade wind inversion, temperature, wind field, cloud cover, and precipitation over the islands against various observations from soundings, satellites, weather stations and rain gauges during the period from 2003 to 2012 will be presented at the meeting.

Visible-near infrared spectroscopy as a tool to improve mapping of soil properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evgrafova, Alevtina; Kühnel, Anna; Bogner, Christina; Haase, Ina; Shibistova, Olga; Guggenberger, Georg; Tananaev, Nikita; Sauheitl, Leopold; Spielvogel, Sandra

2017-04-01

Spectroscopic measurements, which are non-destructive, precise and rapid, can be used to predict soil properties and help estimate the spatial variability of soil properties at the pedon scale. These estimations are required for quantifying soil properties with higher precision, identifying the changes in soil properties and ecosystem response to climate change as well as increasing the estimation accuracy of soil-related models. Our objectives were to (i) predict soil properties for nested samples (n = 296) using the laboratory-based visible-near infrared (vis-NIR) spectra of air-dried (<2 mm) soil samples and values of measured soil properties for gridded samples (n = 174) as calibration and validation sets; (ii) estimate the precision and predictive accuracy of an empirical spectral model using (a) our own spectral library and (b) the global spectral library; (iii) support the global spectral library with obtained vis-NIR spectral data on permafrost-affected soils. The soil samples were collected from three permafrost-affected soil profiles underlain by permafrost at various depths between 23 cm to 57.5 cm below the surface (Cryosols) and one soil profile with no presence of permafrost within the upper 100 cm layer (Cambisol) in order to characterize the spatial distribution and variability of soil properties. The gridded soil samples (n = 174) were collected using an 80 cm wide grid with a mesh size of 10 cm on both axes. In addition, 300 nested soil samples were collected using a grid of 12 cm by 12 cm (25 samples per grid) from a hole of 1 cm in a diameter with a distance from the next sample of 1 cm. Due to a small amount of available soil material (< 1.5 g), 296 nested soil samples were analyzed only using vis-NIR spectroscopy. The air-dried mineral gridded soil samples (n = 174) were sieved through a 2-mm sieve and ground with an agate mortar prior to the elemental analysis. The soil organic carbon and total nitrogen concentrations (in %) were determined using a dry combustion method on the Vario EL cube analyzer (Elementar Analysensysteme GmbH, Germany). Inorganic C was removed from the mineral soil samples with pH values higher than 7 prior to the elemental analysis using the volatilization method (HCl, 6 hours). The pH of soil samples was measured in 0.01 M CaCl2 using a 1:2 soil:solution ratio. However, for soil sample with a high in organic matter content, a 1:10 ratio was applied. We also measured oxalate and dithionite extracted iron, aluminum and manganese oxides and hydroxides using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (Varian Vista MPX ICP-OES, Agilent Technologies, USA). We predicted the above-mentioned soil properties for all nested samples using partial least squares regression, which was performed using R program. We can conclude that vis-NIR spectroscopy can be used effectively in order to describe, estimate and further map the spatial patterns of soil properties using geostatistical methods. This research could also help to improve the global soil spectral library taking into account that only few previous applications of vis-NIR spectroscopy were conducted on permafrost-affected soils of Northern Siberia. Keywords: Visible-near infrared spectroscopy, vis-NIR, permafrost-affected soils, Siberia, partial least squares regression.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study highlights the point that the resolution of models is not the only factor in determining model performance - consistency between nested models is also important.

Eddy Effects in the General Circulation, Spanning Mean Currents, Mesoscale Eddies, and Topographic Generation, Including Submesoscale Nests

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

against real-world data in cooperation with William S. Kessler and Hristina Hristova from PMEL (Solomon Sea), and Satoshi Mitarai and Taichi Sakagami from...refined grids, starting with basin-wide eddy permitting resolutions (although substantially finer than that used in climate modeling), and downscaling it...instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send

A Down-valley Low-level Jet Event During T-REX 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-04

various terms in the momentum and energy equations contributed to aspects of drainage flow evolution and its variation on slopes in valley environments ...outer nest were provided by the North American Model (NAM) 12 km grid spacing forecasts produced by the National Center for Environmental Pre- diction...a sub - stantially improved nocturnal LLJ speed max prediction. This seems consistent with previous research findings focused upon the Owens Valley and

The numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models: State of the art and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingbeil, Knut; Lemarié, Florian; Debreu, Laurent; Burchard, Hans

2018-05-01

The state of the art of the numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is reviewed here. First, some fundamental differences in the hydrodynamics of the coastal ocean, such as the large surface elevation variation compared to the mean water depth, are contrasted against large scale ocean dynamics. Then the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in coastal ocean models as well as in large scale ocean models are presented, including parameterisations for turbulent transports. As steps towards discretisation, coordinate transformations and spatial discretisations based on a finite-volume approach are discussed with focus on the specific requirements for coastal ocean models. As in large scale ocean models, splitting of internal and external modes is essential also for coastal ocean models, but specific care is needed when drying & flooding of intertidal flats is included. As one obvious characteristic of coastal ocean models, open boundaries occur and need to be treated in a way that correct model forcing from outside is transmitted to the model domain without reflecting waves from the inside. Here, also new developments in two-way nesting are presented. Single processes such as internal inertia-gravity waves, advection and turbulence closure models are discussed with focus on the coastal scales. Some overview on existing hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is given, including their extensions towards non-hydrostatic models. Finally, an outlook on future perspectives is made.

Patch-based Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Multimaterial Hydrodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lomov, I; Pember, R; Greenough, J

2005-10-18

We present a patch-based direct Eulerian adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithm for modeling real equation-of-state, multimaterial compressible flow with strength. Our approach to AMR uses a hierarchical, structured grid approach first developed by (Berger and Oliger 1984), (Berger and Oliger 1984). The grid structure is dynamic in time and is composed of nested uniform rectangular grids of varying resolution. The integration scheme on the grid hierarchy is a recursive procedure in which the coarse grids are advanced, then the fine grids are advanced multiple steps to reach the same time, and finally the coarse and fine grids are synchronized tomore » remove conservation errors during the separate advances. The methodology presented here is based on a single grid algorithm developed for multimaterial gas dynamics by (Colella et al. 1993), refined by(Greenough et al. 1995), and extended to the solution of solid mechanics problems with significant strength by (Lomov and Rubin 2003). The single grid algorithm uses a second-order Godunov scheme with an approximate single fluid Riemann solver and a volume-of-fluid treatment of material interfaces. The method also uses a non-conservative treatment of the deformation tensor and an acoustic approximation for shear waves in the Riemann solver. This departure from a strict application of the higher-order Godunov methodology to the equation of solid mechanics is justified due to the fact that highly nonlinear behavior of shear stresses is rare. This algorithm is implemented in two codes, Geodyn and Raptor, the latter of which is a coupled rad-hydro code. The present discussion will be solely concerned with hydrodynamics modeling. Results from a number of simulations for flows with and without strength will be presented.« less

Multigrid finite element method in stress analysis of three-dimensional elastic bodies of heterogeneous structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A. D.

2016-11-01

To calculate the three-dimensional elastic body of heterogeneous structure under static loading, a method of multigrid finite element is provided, when implemented on the basis of algorithms of finite element method (FEM), using homogeneous and composite threedimensional multigrid finite elements (MFE). Peculiarities and differences of MFE from the currently available finite elements (FE) are to develop composite MFE (without increasing their dimensions), arbitrarily small basic partition of composite solids consisting of single-grid homogeneous FE of the first order can be used, i.e. in fact, to use micro approach in finite element form. These small partitions allow one to take into account in MFE, i.e. in the basic discrete models of composite solids, complex heterogeneous and microscopically inhomogeneous structure, shape, the complex nature of the loading and fixation and describe arbitrarily closely the stress and stain state by the equations of three-dimensional elastic theory without any additional simplifying hypotheses. When building the m grid FE, m of nested grids is used. The fine grid is generated by a basic partition of MFE, the other m —1 large grids are applied to reduce MFE dimensionality, when m is increased, MFE dimensionality becomes smaller. The procedures of developing MFE of rectangular parallelepiped, irregular shape, plate and beam types are given. MFE generate the small dimensional discrete models and numerical solutions with a high accuracy. An example of calculating the laminated plate, using three-dimensional 3-grid FE and the reference discrete model is given, with that having 2.2 milliards of FEM nodal unknowns.

Seamless atmospheric modeling across the hydrostatic-nonhydrostatic scales - preliminary results using an unstructured-Voronoi mesh for weather prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skamarock, W. C.

2015-12-01

One of the major problems in atmospheric model applications is the representation of deep convection within the models; explicit simulation of deep convection on fine meshes performs much better than sub-grid parameterized deep convection on coarse meshes. Unfortunately, the high cost of explicit convective simulation has meant it has only been used to down-scale global simulations in weather prediction and regional climate applications, typically using traditional one-way interactive nesting technology. We have been performing real-time weather forecast tests using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (the Model for Prediction Across Scales, MPAS) that employs a variable-resolution unstructured Voronoi horizontal mesh (nominally hexagons) to span hydrostatic to nonhydrostatic scales. The smoothly varying Voronoi mesh eliminates many downscaling problems encountered using traditional one- or two-way grid nesting. Our test weather forecasts cover two periods - the 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment conducted at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center during the month of May in which we used a 50-3 km mesh, and the PECAN field program examining nocturnal convection over the US during the months of June and July in which we used a 15-3 km mesh. An important aspect of this modeling system is that the model physics be scale-aware, particularly the deep convection parameterization. These MPAS simulations employ the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme. Our test forecasts show that the scheme produces a gradual transition in the deep convection, from the deep unstable convection being handled entirely by the convection scheme on the coarse mesh regions (dx > 15 km), to the deep convection being almost entirely explicit on the 3 km NA region of the meshes. We will present results illustrating the performance of critical aspects of the MPAS model in these tests.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rai, Raj K.; Berg, Larry K.; Pekour, Mikhail

The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains eachmore » for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.« less

A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Laura X.; Isaac, George A.; Sheng, Grant

2014-01-01

This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0-6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.

Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions along the Gulf Stream: An Eddy-Resolving and Convection-Permitting Coupled Regional Climate Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, J. S.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2017-12-01

Frontal and mesoscale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream (GS) during boreal winter are investigated using an eddy-resolving and convection-permitting coupled regional climate model with atmospheric grid resolutions varying from meso-β (27-km) to -r (9-km and 3-km nest) scales in WRF and a 9-km ocean model (ROMS) that explicitly resolves the ocean mesoscale eddies across the North Atlantic basin. The mesoscale wavenumber energy spectra for the simulated surface wind stress and SST demonstrate good agreement with the observed spectra calculated from the observational QuikSCAT and AMSR-E datasets, suggesting that the model well captures the energy cascade of the mesoscale eddies in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Intercomparison among different resolution simulations indicates that after three months of integration the simulated GS path tends to overshoot beyond the separation point in the 27-km WRF coupled experiments than the observed climatological path of the GS, whereas the 3-km nested and 9-km WRF coupled simulations realistically simulate GS separation. The GS overshoot in 27-km WRF coupled simulations is accompanied with a significant SST warming bias to the north of the GS extension. Such biases are associated with the deficiency of wind stress-SST coupling strengths simulated by the coupled model with a coarser resolution in WRF. It is found that the model at 27-km grid spacing can approximately simulate 72% (62%) of the observed mean coupling strength between surface wind stress curl (divergence) and crosswind (downwind) SST gradient while by increasing the WRF resolutions to 9 km or 3 km the coupled model can much better capture the observed coupling strengths.

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

the boundary layer does not overcome the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface. As suggested by Montgomery et al. (2006), cold pools of...Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes...from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

A three-dimensional spacecraft-charging computer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, A. G.; Katz, I.; Mandell, M.; Schnuelle, G.; Steen, P.; Parks, D.; Cassidy, J.; Roche, J.

1980-01-01

A computer code is described which simulates the interaction of the space environment with a satellite at geosynchronous altitude. Employing finite elements, a three-dimensional satellite model has been constructed with more than 1000 surface cells and 15 different surface materials. Free space around the satellite is modeled by nesting grids within grids. Applications of this NASA Spacecraft Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) code to the study of a satellite photosheath and the differential charging of the SCATHA (satellite charging at high altitudes) satellite in eclipse and in sunlight are discussed. In order to understand detector response when the satellite is charged, the code is used to trace the trajectories of particles reaching the SCATHA detectors. Particle trajectories from positive and negative emitters on SCATHA also are traced to determine the location of returning particles, to estimate the escaping flux, and to simulate active control of satellite potentials.

The 1887 earthquake and tsunami in the Ligurian Sea: analysis of coastal effects studied by numerical modeling and prototype for real-time computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Heinrich, Philippe; Hébert, Hélène

2017-04-01

The February 1887 earthquake in Italy (Imperia) triggered a tsunami well observed on the French and Italian coastlines. Tsunami waves were recorded on a tide gauge in the Genoa harbour with a small, recently reappraised maximum amplitude of about 10-12 cm (crest-to-trough). The magnitude of the earthquake is still debated in the recent literature, and discussed according to available macroseismic, tectonic and tsunami data. While the tsunami waveform observed in the Genoa harbour may be well explained with a magnitude smaller than 6.5 (Hébert et al., EGU 2015), we investigate in this study whether such source models are consistent with the tsunami effects reported elsewhere along the coastline. The idea is to take the opportunity of the fine bathymetric data recently synthetized for the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) to test the 1887 source parameters using refined, nested grid tsunami numerical modeling down to the harbour scale. Several source parameters are investigated to provide a series of models accounting for various magnitudes and mechanisms. This allows us to compute the tsunami effects for several coastal sites in France (Nice, Villefranche, Antibes, Mandelieu, Cannes) and to compare with observations. Meanwhile we also check the computing time of the chosen scenarios to study whether running nested grids simulation in real time can be suitable in operational context in term of computational cost for these Ligurian scenarios. This work is supported by the FP7 ASTARTE project (Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, grant 603839 FP7) and by the French PIA TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through Modeling) project (grant ANR-11-RSNR-00023).

Towards a coastal ocean forecasting system in Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian seas based on unstructured-grid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Oddo, Paolo; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni

2014-05-01

The Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian Forecasting System (SANIFS) operational chain is based on a nesting approach. The large scale model for the entire Mediterranean basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting system, operated by INGV, e.g. Tonani et al. 2008, Oddo et al. 2009) provides lateral open boundary conditions to the regional model for Adriatic and Ionian seas (AIFS, Adriatic Ionian Forecasting System) which provides the open-sea fields (initial conditions and lateral open boundary conditions) to SANIFS. The latter, here presented, is a coastal ocean model based on SHYFEM (Shallow HYdrodynamics Finite Element Model) code, which is an unstructured grid, finite element three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (e.g. Umgiesser et al., 2004, Ferrarin et al., 2013). The SANIFS hydrodynamic model component has been designed to provide accurate information of hydrodynamics and active tracer fields in the coastal waters of Southern Eastern Italy (Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria regions), where the model is characterized by a resolution of about of 200-500 m. The horizontal resolution is also accurate in open-sea areas, where the elements size is approximately 3 km. During the development phase the model has been initialized and forced at the lateral open boundaries through a full nesting strategy directly with the MFS fields. The heat fluxes has been computed by bulk formulae using as input data the operational analyses of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Short range pre-operational forecast tests have been performed in different seasons to evaluate the robustness of the implemented model in different oceanographic conditions. Model results are validated by means of comparison with MFS operational results and observations. The model is able to reproduce the large-scale oceanographic structures of the area (keeping similar structures of MFS in open sea), while in the coastal area significant improvements in terms of reproduced structures and dynamics are evident.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Kinematic modelling of disc galaxies using graphics processing units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekiaris, G.; Glazebrook, K.; Fluke, C. J.; Abraham, R.

2016-01-01

With large-scale integral field spectroscopy (IFS) surveys of thousands of galaxies currently under-way or planned, the astronomical community is in need of methods, techniques and tools that will allow the analysis of huge amounts of data. We focus on the kinematic modelling of disc galaxies and investigate the potential use of massively parallel architectures, such as the graphics processing unit (GPU), as an accelerator for the computationally expensive model-fitting procedure. We review the algorithms involved in model-fitting and evaluate their suitability for GPU implementation. We employ different optimization techniques, including the Levenberg-Marquardt and nested sampling algorithms, but also a naive brute-force approach based on nested grids. We find that the GPU can accelerate the model-fitting procedure up to a factor of ˜100 when compared to a single-threaded CPU, and up to a factor of ˜10 when compared to a multithreaded dual CPU configuration. Our method's accuracy, precision and robustness are assessed by successfully recovering the kinematic properties of simulated data, and also by verifying the kinematic modelling results of galaxies from the GHASP and DYNAMO surveys as found in the literature. The resulting GBKFIT code is available for download from: http://supercomputing.swin.edu.au/gbkfit.

California's Snow Gun and its implications for mass balance predictions under greenhouse warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howat, I.; Snyder, M.; Tulaczyk, S.; Sloan, L.

2003-12-01

Precipitation has received limited treatment in glacier and snowpack mass balance models, largely due to the poor resolution and confidence of precipitation predictions relative to temperature predictions derived from atmospheric models. Most snow and glacier mass balance models rely on statistical or lapse rate-based downscaling of general or regional circulation models (GCM's and RCM's), essentially decoupling sub-grid scale, orographically-driven evolution of atmospheric heat and moisture. Such models invariably predict large losses in the snow and ice volume under greenhouse warming. However, positive trends in the mass balance of glaciers in some warming maritime climates, as well as at high elevations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, suggest that increased precipitation may play an important role in snow- and glacier-climate interactions. Here, we present a half century of April snowpack data from the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains of California, USA. This high-density network of snow-course data indicates that a gain in winter snow accumulation at higher elevations has compensated loss in snow volume at lower elevations by over 50% and has led to glacier expansion on Mt. Shasta. These trends are concurrent with a region-wide increase in winter temperatures up to 2° C. They result from the orographic lifting and saturation of warmer, more humid air leading to increased precipitation at higher elevations. Previous studies have invoked such a "Snow Gun" effect to explain contemporaneous records of Tertiary ocean warming and rapid glacial expansion. A climatological context of the California's "snow gun" effect is elucidated by correlation between the elevation distribution of April SWE observations and the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation, both controlling the heat and moisture delivered to the U.S. Pacific coast. The existence of a significant "Snow Gun" effect presents two challenges to snow and glacier mass balance modeling. Firstly, the link between amplification of orographic precipitation and the temporal evolution of ocean-climate oscillations indicates that prediction of future mass balance trends requires consideration of the timing and amplitude of such oscillations. Only recently have ocean-atmosphere models begun to realistically produce such temporal variability. Secondly, the steepening snow mass-balance elevation-gradient associated with the "Snow Gun" implies greater spatial variability in balance with warming. In a warming climate, orographic processes at a scale finer that the highest resolution RCM (>20km grid) become increasingly important and predictions based on lower elevations become increasingly inaccurate for higher elevations. Therefore, thermodynamic interaction between atmospheric heat, moisture and topography must be included in downscaling techniques. In order to demonstrate the importance of the thermodynamic downscaling in mass balance predictions, we nest a high-resolution (100m grid), coupled Orographic Precipitation and Surface Energy balance Model (OPSEM) into the RegC2.5 RCM (40 km grid) and compare results. We apply this nesting technique to Mt. Shasta, California, an area of high topography (~4000m) relative to its RegCM2.5 grid elevation (1289m). These models compute average April snow volume under present and doubled-present Atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While the RegCM2.5 regional model predicts an 83% decrease in April SWE, OPSEM predicts a 16% increase. These results indicate that thermodynamic interactions between the atmosphere and topography at sub- RCM grid resolution must be considered in mass balance models.

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paine, D. A.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

1979-01-01

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined.

MODFLOW–USG version 1: An unstructured grid version of MODFLOW for simulating groundwater flow and tightly coupled processes using a control volume finite-difference formulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panday, Sorab; Langevin, Christian D.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Ibaraki, Motomu; Hughes, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

A new version of MODFLOW, called MODFLOW–USG (for UnStructured Grid), was developed to support a wide variety of structured and unstructured grid types, including nested grids and grids based on prismatic triangles, rectangles, hexagons, and other cell shapes. Flexibility in grid design can be used to focus resolution along rivers and around wells, for example, or to subdiscretize individual layers to better represent hydrostratigraphic units. MODFLOW–USG is based on an underlying control volume finite difference (CVFD) formulation in which a cell can be connected to an arbitrary number of adjacent cells. To improve accuracy of the CVFD formulation for irregular grid-cell geometries or nested grids, a generalized Ghost Node Correction (GNC) Package was developed, which uses interpolated heads in the flow calculation between adjacent connected cells. MODFLOW–USG includes a Groundwater Flow (GWF) Process, based on the GWF Process in MODFLOW–2005, as well as a new Connected Linear Network (CLN) Process to simulate the effects of multi-node wells, karst conduits, and tile drains, for example. The CLN Process is tightly coupled with the GWF Process in that the equations from both processes are formulated into one matrix equation and solved simultaneously. This robustness results from using an unstructured grid with unstructured matrix storage and solution schemes. MODFLOW–USG also contains an optional Newton-Raphson formulation, based on the formulation in MODFLOW–NWT, for improving solution convergence and avoiding problems with the drying and rewetting of cells. Because the existing MODFLOW solvers were developed for structured and symmetric matrices, they were replaced with a new Sparse Matrix Solver (SMS) Package developed specifically for MODFLOW–USG. The SMS Package provides several methods for resolving nonlinearities and multiple symmetric and asymmetric linear solution schemes to solve the matrix arising from the flow equations and the Newton-Raphson formulation, respectively.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Colony mapping: A new technique for monitoring crevice-nesting seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renner, H.M.; Renner, M.; Reynolds, J.H.; Harping, A.M.A.; Jones, I.L.; Irons, D.B.; Byrd, G.V.

2006-01-01

Monitoring populations of auklets and other crevice-nesting seabirds remains problematic, although numerous methods have been attempted since the mid-1960s. Anecdotal evidence suggests several large auklet colonies have recently decreased in both abundance and extent, concurrently with vegetation encroachment and succession. Quantifying changes in the geographical extent of auklet colonies may be a useful alternative to monitoring population size directly. We propose a standardized method for colony mapping using a randomized systematic grid survey with two components: a simple presence/absence survey and an auklet evidence density survey. A quantitative auklet evidence density index was derived from the frequency of droppings and feathers. This new method was used to map the colony on St. George Island in the southeastern Bering Sea and results were compared to previous colony mapping efforts. Auklet presence was detected in 62 of 201 grid cells (each grid cell = 2500 m2) by sampling a randomly placed 16 m2 plot in each cell; estimated colony area = 155 000 m2. The auklet evidence density index varied by two orders of magnitude across the colony and was strongly correlated with means of replicated counts of birds socializing on the colony surface. Quantitatively mapping all large auklet colonies is logistically feasible using this method and would provide an important baseline for monitoring colony status. Regularly monitoring select colonies using this method may be the best means of detecting changes in distribution and population size of crevice-nesting seabirds. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

A study of frontal dynamics with application to the Australian summertime 'cool change'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, Michael J.; Smith, Roger K.

1987-01-01

The dynamics of frontal evolution is examined in terms of the Australian summertime cool change using a two-dimensional numerical model. The model is synthesized from observational data on surface cold fronts obtained during the Australian Cold Fronts Research Program, and the model develops a quasi-steady surface cold front during the 24 hours of integration. The characteristics of this model are compared with those of a kinematic model; it is observed that the features of the two models correspond. The two-dimensional and kinematic models are also compared with a 24-hour prediction of the cold front of February 1983 using the three-dimensional nested-grid model of the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Center, developed by Gauntlett et al. (1984). Good correlation between these models is detected.

Meso-beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass/momentum perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Yuh-Lang; Kaplan, Michael L.

1993-01-01

The first section is on 3-D numerical modeling of terrain-induced circulations and covers the following: (1) additional insights into gravity wave generation mechanisms based on the control simulation; (2) ongoing nested-grid numerical simulations; (3) work to be completed during the remainder of FY-93; and (4) work objectives for FY-94. The second section is on linear theory and theoretical modeling and covers the following: (1) the free response of a uniform barotropic flow to an initially stationary unbalanced (ageostrophic) zonal wind anomaly; and (2) the free response of a uniform barotropic flow to an initially stationary balanced zonal wind anomaly.

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic Bondi-Hoyle accretion. 2: Homogeneous medium at Mach 3 with gamma = 5/3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruffert, Maximilian; Arnett, David

1994-01-01

We investigate the hydrodynamics of three-dimensional classical Bondi-Hoyle accretion. Totally absorbing spheres of varying sizes (from 10 down to 0.01 accretion radii) move at Mach 3 relative to a homogeneous and slightly perturbed medium, which is taken to be an ideal gas (gamma = 5/3). To accommodate the long-range gravitational forces, the extent of the computational volume is 32(exp 3) accretion radii. We examine the influence of numerical procedure on physical behavior. The hydrodynamics is modeled by the 'piecewise parabolic method.' No energy sources (nuclear burning) or sinks (radiation, conduction) are included. The resolution in the vicinity of the accretor is increased by multiply nesting several (5-10) grids around the sphere, each finer grid being a factor of 2 smaller in zone dimension that the next coarser grid. The largest dynamic range (ratio of size of the largest grid to size of the finest zone) is 16,384. This allows us to include a coarse model for the surface of the accretor (vacuum sphere) on the finest grid, while at the same time evolving the gas on the coarser grids. Initially (at time t = 0-10), a shock front is set up, a Mach cone develops, and the accretion column is observable. Eventually the flow becomes unstable, destroying axisymmetry. This happens approximately when the mass accretion rate reaches the values (+/- 10%) predicted by the Bondi-Hoyle accretion formula (factor of 2 included). However, our three-dimensional models do not show the highly dynamic flip-flop flow so prominent in two-dimensional calculations performed by other authors. The flow, and thus the accretion rate of all quantities, shows quasi-periodic (P approximately equals 5) cycles between quiescent and active states. The interpolation formula proposed in an accompanying paper is found to follow the collected numerical data to within approximately 30%. The specific angular momentum accreted is of the same order of magnitude as the values previously found for two-dimensional flows.

Sensitivity of the Carolina Coastal Ocean Circulation to Open Boundary and Atmospheric Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L.

2003-12-01

The ocean circulation on the continental shelf off the Carolina coast is characterized by a complex flow regime and temporal variability, which is influenced by atmospheric forcing, the Gulf Stream system, complex coastline and bathymetry, river discharge and tidal forcing. In this study, a triple-nested, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to simulate the coastal ocean circulation on the continental shelf off the Carolina coast and its interactions with the offshore large-scale ocean circulation system. The horizontal mesh size in the innermost domain was set to 1 km, whereas the outermost domain coincides with the near real-time 1/12­’ Atlantic HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System operated at the Naval Research Laboratory. The intermediate domain uses a mesh size of 3 km. Atmospheric forcing fields for the Carolina coastal region are derived from the NOAA operational ETA model, the ECMWF reanalysis fields and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields. These forcing fields are derived at 0.8›¦, 1.125›¦ and 1.875›¦ resolutions, and at intervals of 6 hour, daily and monthly. The sensitivity of the model results to the spatial and temporal resolution of the atmospheric forcing fields is analyzed. To study the dependence of the model sensitivity on the model grid size, single-window simulations at resolutions of 1km, 3km and 9km are carried out using the same forcing fields that were applied to the nested system. Comparisons between the nested and the single domain simulation results will be presented.

A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

2016-02-01

Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

Weather forecast performances for complex orographic areas: Impact of different grid resolutions and of geographic data on heavy rainfall event simulations in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccamo, M. T.; Castorina, G.; Colombo, F.; Insinga, V.; Maiorana, E.; Magazù, S.

2017-12-01

Over the past decades, Sicily has undergone an increasing sequence of extreme weather events that have produced, besides huge damages to both environment and territory, the death of hundreds of people together with the evacuation of thousands of residents, which have permanently lost their properties. In this framework, with this paper we have investigated the impact of different grid spacing and geographic data on the performance of forecasts over complex orographic areas. In order to test the validity of this approach we have analyzed and discussed, as case study, the heavy rainfall occurred in Sicily during the night of October 10, 2015. In just 9 h, a Mediterranean depression, centered on the Tunisian coastline, produced a violent mesoscale storm localized on the Peloritani Mountains with a maximum rain accumulation of about 200 mm. The results of these simulations were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model, version 3.7.1, at different grid spacing values and the Two Way Nesting procedure with a sub-domain centered on the area of interest. The results highlighted that providing correct and timely forecasts of extreme weather events is a challenge that could have been efficiently and effectively countered using proper employment of high spatial resolution models.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Full-Scale Numerical Modeling of Turbulent Processes in the Earth's Ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eliasson, B.; Stenflo, L.; Department of Physics, Linkoeping University, SE-581 83 Linkoeping

2008-10-15

We present a full-scale simulation study of ionospheric turbulence by means of a generalized Zakharov model based on the separation of variables into high-frequency and slow time scales. The model includes realistic length scales of the ionospheric profile and of the electromagnetic and electrostatic fields, and uses ionospheric plasma parameters relevant for high-latitude radio facilities such as Eiscat and HAARP. A nested grid numerical method has been developed to resolve the different length-scales, while avoiding severe restrictions on the time step. The simulation demonstrates the parametric decay of the ordinary mode into Langmuir and ion-acoustic waves, followed by a Langmuirmore » wave collapse and short-scale caviton formation, as observed in ionospheric heating experiments.« less

A numerical study on flow and pollutant transport in Singapore coastal waters.

PubMed

Xu, Ming; Chua, Vivien P

2016-10-15

Intensive economic and shipping activities in Singapore Strait have caused Singapore coastal waters to be under high risk of water pollution. A nested three-dimensional unstructured-grid SUNTANS model is applied to Singapore coastal waters to simulate flow and pollutant transport. The small domain (~50m resolution) Singapore coastal model is nested within a large domain (~200m resolution) regional model. The nested model is able to predict water surface elevations and velocities with high R(2) values of 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Model results delineate the characteristics of circulation pattern in Singapore coastal waters during the Northeast and Southwest monsoons. The pollutants are modeled as passive tracers, and are released at six key sailing locations Points 1-6 in Singapore coastal waters and are named as Passive Tracers 1-6, respectively. Our results show that the rate of dispersion is twice as large for the Northeast monsoon compared to the Southwest monsoon due to differences in large-scale monsoons and small-scale local winds. The volume averaged concentration (VAC) diminishes faster and the local flushing time is shorter during the Northeast monsoon than the Southwest monsoon. Dispersion coefficients K and the VAC decreasing rate are maximum for Tracers 2 and 3 with shortest local flushing time due to the strong surrounding currents and abrupt bathymetry changes near Senang and St. John Islands. Dispersion coefficients K and the VAC decreasing rate are minimum for Tracer 1 due to weak currents induced by the semi-enclosed coastline near Tuas. It is found that both the lateral dispersion coefficient Ky and the compound dispersion coefficient K obey a "4/3-law", which defines a linear correlation between dispersion coefficients and 4/3-power of selected length scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional microstructure simulation of Ni-based superalloy investment castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Dong; Xu, Qingyan; Liu, Baicheng

2011-05-01

An integrated macro and micro multi-scale model for the three-dimensional microstructure simulation of Ni-based superalloy investment castings was developed, and applied to industrial castings to investigate grain evolution during solidification. A ray tracing method was used to deal with the complex heat radiation transfer. The microstructure evolution was simulated based on the Modified Cellular Automaton method, which was coupled with three-dimensional nested macro and micro grids. Experiments for Ni-based superalloy turbine wheel investment casting were carried out, which showed a good correspondence with the simulated results. It is indicated that the proposed model is able to predict the microstructure of the casting precisely, which provides a tool for the optimizing process.

Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, Joseph D.; Langevin, Christian D.; Banta, Edward R.

2017-08-10

MODFLOW is a popular open-source groundwater flow model distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Growing interest in surface and groundwater interactions, local refinement with nested and unstructured grids, karst groundwater flow, solute transport, and saltwater intrusion, has led to the development of numerous MODFLOW versions. Often times, there are incompatibilities between these different MODFLOW versions. The report describes a new MODFLOW framework called MODFLOW 6 that is designed to support multiple models and multiple types of models. The framework is written in Fortran using a modular object-oriented design. The primary framework components include the simulation (or main program), Timing Module, Solutions, Models, Exchanges, and Utilities. The first version of the framework focuses on numerical solutions, numerical models, and numerical exchanges. This focus on numerical models allows multiple numerical models to be tightly coupled at the matrix level.

Towards a unified Global Weather-Climate Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2016-12-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions and kilometer scale regional climate simulations within a unified global modeling system. The foundation of this flexible modeling system is the nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere (FV3). A unique aspect of FV3 is that it is "vertically Lagrangian" (Lin 2004), essentially reducing the equation sets to two dimensions, and is the single most important reason why FV3 outperforms other non-hydrostatic cores. Owning to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, the FV3 has been selected as the "engine" for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched grid, a two-way regional-global nested grid, and an optimal combination of the stretched and two-way nests capability, making kilometer-scale regional simulations within a global modeling system feasible. Our main scientific goal is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that, with the FV3, it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornado-like vortices using a global model that was originally designed for climate simulations. The development and tuning strategy between traditional weather and climate models are fundamentally different due to different metrics. We were able to adapt and use traditional "climate" metrics or standards, such as angular momentum conservation, energy conservation, and flux balance at top of the atmosphere, and gain insight into problems of traditional weather prediction model for medium-range weather prediction, and vice versa. Therefore, the unification in weather and climate models can happen not just at the algorithm or parameterization level, but also in the metric and tuning strategy used for both applications, and ultimately, with benefits to both weather and climate applications.

The on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) - Part 5: Expanding the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v2.0) for 2-way data exchange including data interpolation via GRID (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerkweg, Astrid; Hofmann, Christiane; Jöckel, Patrick; Mertens, Mariano; Pante, Gregor

2018-03-01

As part of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v1.0) was developed to couple online the regional Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model into a driving model, which can be either the regional COSMO model or the global European Centre Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) (see Part 2 of the model documentation). The coupled system is called MECO(n), i.e., MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. In this article, which is part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, the second generation of MMD is introduced. MMD comprises the message-passing infrastructure required for the parallel execution (multiple programme multiple data, MPMD) of different models and the communication of the individual model instances, i.e. between the driving and the driven models. Initially, the MMD library was developed for a one-way coupling between the global chemistry-climate ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model and an arbitrary number of (optionally cascaded) instances of the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO/MESSy. Thus, MMD (v1.0) provided only functions for unidirectional data transfer, i.e. from the larger-scale to the smaller-scale models.Soon, extended applications requiring data transfer from the small-scale model back to the larger-scale model became of interest. For instance, the original fields of the larger-scale model can directly be compared to the upscaled small-scale fields to analyse the improvements gained through the small-scale calculations, after the results are upscaled. Moreover, the fields originating from the two different models might be fed into the same diagnostic tool, e.g. the online calculation of the radiative forcing calculated consistently with the same radiation scheme. Last but not least, enabling the two-way data transfer between two models is the first important step on the way to a fully dynamical and chemical two-way coupling of the various model instances.In MMD (v1.0), interpolation between the base model grids is performed via the COSMO preprocessing tool INT2LM, which was implemented into the MMD submodel for online interpolation, specifically for mapping onto the rotated COSMO grid. A more flexible algorithm is required for the backward mapping. Thus, MMD (v2.0) uses the new MESSy submodel GRID for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the transformation of data between them.In this article, we explain the basics of the MMD expansion and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0) and show some examples of the abovementioned applications.

Verification of the NWP models operated at ICM, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melonek, Malgorzata

2010-05-01

Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw (ICM) started its activity in the field of NWP in May 1997. Since this time the numerical weather forecasts covering Central Europe have been routinely published on our publicly available website. First NWP model used in ICM was hydrostatic Unified Model developed by the UK Meteorological Office. It was a mesoscale version with horizontal resolution of 17 km and 31 levels in vertical. At present two NWP non-hydrostatic models are running in quasi-operational regime. The main new UM model with 4 km horizontal resolution, 38 levels in vertical and forecats range of 48 hours is running four times a day. Second, the COAMPS model (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by the US Naval Research Laboratory, configured with the three nested grids (with coresponding resolutions of 39km, 13km and 4.3km, 30 vertical levels) are running twice a day (for 00 and 12 UTC). The second grid covers Central Europe and has forecast range of 84 hours. Results of the both NWP models, ie. COAMPS computed on 13km mesh resolution and UM, are verified against observations from the Polish synoptic stations. Verification uses surface observations and nearest grid point forcasts. Following meteorological elements are verified: air temperature at 2m, mean sea level pressure, wind speed and wind direction at 10 m and 12 hours accumulated precipitation. There are presented different statistical indices. For continous variables Mean Error(ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) in 6 hours intervals are computed. In case of precipitation the contingency tables for different thresholds are computed and some of the verification scores such as FBI, ETS, POD, FAR are graphically presented. The verification sample covers nearly one year.

Spectral nudging to eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2004-07-01

It is well known that regional climate simulations are sensitive to the size and position of the domain chosen for calculations. Here we study the physical mechanisms of this sensitivity. We conducted simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for June 2000 over North America at 50 km horizontal resolution using a 7500 km × 5400 km grid and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as boundary conditions. The position of the domain was displaced in several directions, always maintaining the U.S. in the interior, out of the buffer zone along the lateral boundaries. Circulation biases developed a large scale structure, organized by the Rocky Mountains, resulting from a systematic shifting of the synoptic wave trains that crossed the domain. The distortion of the large-scale circulation was produced by interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested domain and varied when the position of the grid was altered. This changed the large-scale environment among the different simulations and translated into diverse conditions for the development of the mesoscale processes that produce most of precipitation for the Great Plains in the summer season. As a consequence, precipitation results varied, sometimes greatly, among the experiments with the different grid positions. To eliminate the dependence of results on the position of the domain, we used spectral nudging of waves longer than 2500 km above the boundary layer. Moisture was not nudged at any level. This constrained the synoptic scales to follow reanalysis while allowing the model to develop the small-scale dynamics responsible for the rainfall. Nudging of the large scales successfully eliminated the variation of precipitation results when the grid was moved. We suggest that this technique is necessary for all downscaling studies with regional models with domain sizes of a few thousand kilometers and larger embedded in global models.

Nest odor dynamics in the social wasp Vespula vulgaris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinmetz, Inge; Schmolz, Erik

2005-09-01

We investigated nest odor dynamics in the common yellow jacket, Vespula vulgaris. In six isolated colonies, we tested the aggression rates toward dead nestmates that had been stored for 10 min, 10 and 19 days outside their colonies at 76 °C. The aggression rate increased from about 12% toward recently killed nestmates up to 30% toward nestmates killed 19 days before the experiment. Obviously, the conserved nest odor profile of the nestmates frozen for several days did not match with that of their colony anymore. This indicates a change of the nest odor within the colony. In a second experiment, we kept two colonies each in one nest box with a complete separation of both neighbor nests by a solid wall inside the box for 28 days. In confrontation experiments, the colony members treated dead foragers from the neighbor nest as aggressively as dead foreign, non-neighbor workers (about 39% each) whereas only about 14% reacted aggressively toward dead nestmates. Seventeen days after the replacement of the solid wall by a metallic grid, which allowed no physical contact but air exchange between the two neighbor colonies, the aggression rates toward foreign workers and nestmates remained relatively unaffected whereas it decreased significantly toward dead neighbors to about 11%. These results suggest a nest odor dynamic caused by volatiles transferred between two adjacent colonies, resulting in an equalization of the former colony specific nest odors. A change of nest odor dynamics influenced by volatiles was so far described only for one ant species at all.

Influence of high-resolution surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, L. M. S.; Bodstein, G. C. R.; Pimentel, L. C. G.

2014-08-01

Large-eddy simulations are performed using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) code at horizontal grid resolutions as fine as 300 m to assess the influence of detailed and updated surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems of urban areas with complex terrain. Applications to air pollution and wind energy are sought. These databases are comprised of 3 arc-sec topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 10 arc-sec vegetation-type data from the European Space Agency (ESA) GlobCover project, and 30 arc-sec leaf area index and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation data from the ESA GlobCarbon project. Simulations are carried out for the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro using six one-way nested-grid domains that allow the choice of distinct parametric models and vertical resolutions associated to each grid. ARPS is initialized using the Global Forecasting System with 0.5°-resolution data from the National Center of Environmental Prediction, which is also used every 3 h as lateral boundary condition. Topographic shading is turned on and two soil layers are used to compute the soil temperature and moisture budgets in all runs. Results for two simulated runs covering three periods of time are compared to surface and upper-air observational data to explore the dependence of the simulations on initial and boundary conditions, grid resolution, topographic and land-use databases. Our comparisons show overall good agreement between simulated and observational data, mainly for the potential temperature and the wind speed fields, and clearly indicate that the use of high-resolution databases improves significantly our ability to predict the local atmospheric circulation.

Regional Climate Simulations of the Hydrological Cycle in the Iberian Peninsula with a Coupled WRF-HYDRO Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios-Entenza, A.; Miguez-Macho, G.

2008-12-01

Land-atmosphere water exchanges and heat fluxes play an important role in climate and particularly in controlling precipitation in water-limited regions. One of such regions is the Iberian Peninsula, and in this study we examine the relevance of water recycling in convective precipitation regimes of the Fall and Spring there, when rainfall is critical for agriculture and many other human activities. We conducted simulations with WRF-ARW model at 5 km horizontal resolution, using a 1500 km x 1500 km nested grid that covers the Iberian Peninsula, with a parent domain that uses spectral nudging in order to avoid the distortion of the large-scale circulation caused by the interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested grid. For land-surface interactions we coupled WRF with the LEAF-HYDRO land surface model, which includes water table dynamics. We use therefore a tool that simulates the entire water cycle, including the water table, which has been reported to be critical for soil moisture dynamics in semi-arid regions like the Iberian Peninsula. For each one of the events that we selected, we performed two simulations: a control one, where all land-atmosphere feedbacks are taken into account, and the experiment, where infiltration of the precipitated water into the soil was suppressed. In this manner we explore the role of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes and evapotranspiration in precipitation dynamics. Preliminary results suggest that water recycling is a key factor in extending convective precipitation during several days, and that the total new water added in the area as a whole is only a fraction of the total measured rainfall. An estimation of this fraction is very important to better understanding the water budget and for hydrological planning in this water-stressed region.

A new multiscale air quality transport model (Fluidity, 4.1.9) using fully unstructured anisotropic adaptive mesh technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, J.; Zhu, J.; Wang, Z.; Fang, F.; Pain, C. C.; Xiang, J.

2015-06-01

A new anisotropic hr-adaptive mesh technique has been applied to modelling of multiscale transport phenomena, which is based on a discontinuous Galerkin/control volume discretization on unstructured meshes. Over existing air quality models typically based on static-structured grids using a locally nesting technique, the advantage of the anisotropic hr-adaptive model has the ability to adapt the mesh according to the evolving pollutant distribution and flow features. That is, the mesh resolution can be adjusted dynamically to simulate the pollutant transport process accurately and effectively. To illustrate the capability of the anisotropic adaptive unstructured mesh model, three benchmark numerical experiments have been setup for two-dimensional (2-D) transport phenomena. Comparisons have been made between the results obtained using uniform resolution meshes and anisotropic adaptive resolution meshes.

Influence of high-resolution surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, L. M. S.; Bodstein, G. C. R.; Pimentel, L. C. G.

2013-12-01

Large-eddy simulations are performed using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) code at horizontal grid resolutions as fine as 300 m to assess the influence of detailed and updated surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems of urban areas with complex terrain. Applications to air pollution and wind energy are sought. These databases are comprised of 3 arc-sec topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 10 arc-sec vegetation type data from the European Space Agency (ESA) GlobCover Project, and 30 arc-sec Leaf Area Index and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation data from the ESA GlobCarbon Project. Simulations are carried out for the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro using six one-way nested-grid domains that allow the choice of distinct parametric models and vertical resolutions associated to each grid. ARPS is initialized using the Global Forecasting System with 0.5°-resolution data from the National Center of Environmental Prediction, which is also used every 3 h as lateral boundary condition. Topographic shading is turned on and two soil layers with depths of 0.01 and 1.0 m are used to compute the soil temperature and moisture budgets in all runs. Results for two simulated runs covering the period from 6 to 7 September 2007 are compared to surface and upper-air observational data to explore the dependence of the simulations on initial and boundary conditions, topographic and land-use databases and grid resolution. Our comparisons show overall good agreement between simulated and observed data and also indicate that the low resolution of the 30 arc-sec soil database from United States Geological Survey, the soil moisture and skin temperature initial conditions assimilated from the GFS analyses and the synoptic forcing on the lateral boundaries of the finer grids may affect an adequate spatial description of the meteorological variables.

Hydraulic Jumps, Waves and Other Flow Features Found by Modeling Stably-Stratified Flows in the Salt Lake Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Ludwig, F.; Street, R.

2003-12-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was used to simulate weak synoptic wind conditions with stable stratification and pronounced drainage flow at night in the vicinity of the Jordan Narrows at the south end of Salt Lake Valley. The simulations showed the flow to be quite complex with hydraulic jumps and internal waves that make it essential to use a complete treatment of the fluid dynamics. Six one-way nested grids were used to resolve the topography; they ranged from 20-km grid spacing, initialized by ETA 40-km operational analyses down to 250-m horizontal resolution and 200 vertically stretched levels to a height of 20 km, beginning with a 10-m cell at the surface. Most of the features of interest resulted from interactions with local terrain features, so that little was lost by using one-way nesting. Canyon, gap, and over-terrain flows have a large effect on mixing and vertical transport, especially in the regions where hydraulic jumps are likely. Our results also showed that the effect of spatial resolution on simulation performance is profound. The horizontal resolution must be such that the smallest features that are likely to have important impact on the flow are spanned by at least a few grid points. Thus, the 250 m minimum resolution of this study is appropriate for treating the effects of features of about 1 km or greater extent. To be consistent, the vertical cell dimension must resolve the same terrain features resolved by the horizontal grid. These simulations show that many of the interesting flow features produce observable wind and temperature gradients at or near the surface. Accordingly, some relatively simple field measurements might be made to confirm that the mixing phenomena that were simulated actually take place in the real atmosphere, which would be very valuable for planning large, expensive field campaigns. The work was supported by the Atmospheric Sciences Program, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, U.S. Department of Energy. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) provided computational time. We thank Professor Ming Xue and others at the University of Oklahoma for their help.

Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

ManUniCast: A Community Weather and Air-Quality Forecasting Teaching Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Fairman, Jonathan G.; Lowe, Douglas; McFiggans, Gordon; Lee, Elsa; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

2014-05-01

Manunicast was borne out of the needs of our teaching program: students were entering a world where environmental prediction via numerical model was an essential skill, but were not exposed to the production or output of such models. Our site is an educational testbed to explain to students and the public how weather, air-quality, and air-chemistry forecasts are made using real-time predictions as examples. As far as we know, this site provides the first freely available real-time predictions for the UK. We perform two simulations a day over three domains using the most popular, freely available, community atmospheric mesoscale and chemistry models WRF-ARW and WRF-Chem: 1. a WRF-ARW domain over the North Atlantic and western Europe (20-km horizontal grid spacing) 2. a WRF-ARW domain over the UK and Ireland (4-km grid spacing, nested within the 20-km domain) 3. a WRF-Chem domain over the UK and Ireland (12-km grid spacing) Called ManUniCast (Manchester University Forecast), we offer a suite of products from horizontal maps, time series at stations (meteograms), skew-T-logp charts, and cross sections to help students better visualize the weather and the relationships between the various fields more effectively, specifically through the ability to overlay and fade between different plotted products. This presentation discusses how we funded and built ManUniCast, the struggles we faced, and its use in our classes.

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rai, Raj K.; Berg, Larry K.; Kosović, Branko

High resolution numerical simulation can provide insight into important physical processes that occur within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The present work employs large eddy simulation (LES) using the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model, with the LES domain nested within mesoscale simulation, to simulate real conditions in the convective PBL over an area of complex terrain. A multiple nesting approach has been used to downsize the grid spacing from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). A careful selection of grid spacing in the WRF Meso domain has been conducted to minimize artifacts in the WRF-LES solutions. The WRF-LESmore » results have been evaluated with in situ and remote sensing observations collected during the US Department of Energy-supported Columbia BasinWind Energy Study (CBWES). Comparison of the first- and second-order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function (PDF) of wind speed shows good agreement between the simulations and data. Furthermore, the WRF-LES variables show a great deal of variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. The WRF-LES results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, vary depending on both the location and time of day. In addition to basic studies related to boundary-layer meteorology, results from these simulations can be used in other applications, such as studying wind energy resources, atmospheric dispersion, fire weather etc.« less

Triple-material stress-strain resistivity gage

DOEpatents

Stout, R.B.

1988-05-17

A triple material piezoresistive gage provides multi-component elastic stress measurements is disclosed. Thin foils of three piezoresistive materials, e.g. ytterbium, manganin, and constantan, are configured in a nested serpentine rectilinear grid or other grid arrangement and embedded in a medium, preferably normal to the direction of shock wave propagation. The output of the gage is a resistivity change history for each material of the gage. Each resistivity change is independent of the others so that three diagonal components of the elastic stress or strain tensor can be calculated from the resistivity measurements. 4 figs.

Triple-material stress-strain resistivity gage

DOEpatents

Stout, Ray B.

1988-01-01

A triple material piezoresistive gage provides multi-component elastic stress or measurements. Thin foils of three piezoresistive materials, e.g. ytterbium, manganin, and constantan, are configured in a nested serpentine rectilinear grid or other grid arrangement and embedded in a medium, preferably normal to the direction of shock wave propagation. The output of the gage is a resistivity change history for each material of the gage. Each resistivity change is independent of the others so that three diagonal components of the elastic stress or strain tensor can be calculated from the resistivity measurements.

Modeling coastal upwelling around a small-scale coastline promontory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, K. A.; Cai, D.; Freismuth, T. M.; MacMahan, J.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Suanda, S. H.; Kumar, N.; Miller, A. J.; Edwards, C. A.

2016-12-01

On the US west coast, northerly winds drive coastal ocean upwelling, an important process which brings cold nutrient rich water to the nearshore. The coastline geometry has been shown to be a significant factor in the strength of the upwelling process. In particular, the upwelling in the lee of major headlands have been shown to be enhanced. Recent observations from the Pt. Sal region on the coast of southern California have shown the presence of cooler water south of a small (350 m) rocky promontory (Mussel Pt.) during upwelling events. The hypothesis is that the small scale promontory is creating a lee side enhancement to the upwelling. To shed some light on this process, numerical simulations of the inner shelf region centered about Pt. Sal are conducted with the ROMS module of the COAWST model system. The model system is configured with four nested grids with resolutions ranging from approximately 600 m to the outer shelf ( 200 m) to the inner shelf ( 66 m) and finally to the surf zone ( 22 m). A solution from a 1 km grid encompassing our domain provides the boundary conditions for the 600 m grid. Barotropic tidal forcing is incorporated at the 600 m grid to provide tidal variability. This model system with realistic topography and bathymetry, winds and tides, is able to isolate the forcing mechanisms that explain the emergence of the cold water mass. The simulations focus on the time period of June - July, 2015 corresponding to the pilot study in which observational experiment data was collected. The experiment data in part consists of in situ measurement, which includes mooring with conductivity, temperature, depth, and flow velocity. The model simulations are able to reproduce the important flow features including the cooler water mass south of Mussel Pt. As hypothesized, the strength of the upwelling is enhanced on the side of Mussel Pt. In addition, periods of wind relaxation where the upwelling ceases and even begins to transform towards downwelling is analyzed.

Recent developments and assessment of a three-dimensional PBL parameterization for improved wind forecasting over complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Haupt, S. E.; Martilli, A.; Olson, J.; Bao, J. W.

2017-12-01

At present, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in most numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are one-dimensional. One-dimensional parameterizations are based on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity. This homogeneity assumption is appropriate for grid cell sizes greater than 10 km. However, for mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain with grid cell sizes below 1 km, the assumption of horizontal homogeneity is violated. Applying a one-dimensional PBL parameterization to high-resolution mesoscale simulations in complex terrain could result in significant error. For high-resolution mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain, we have therefore developed and implemented a three-dimensional (3D) PBL parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The implementation of the 3D PBL scheme is based on the developments outlined by Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982). Our implementation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model uses a pure algebraic model (level 2) to diagnose the turbulent fluxes. To evaluate the performance of the 3D PBL model, we use observations from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). The WFIP2 field study took place in the Columbia River Gorge area from 2015-2017. We focus on selected cases when physical phenomena of significance for wind energy applications such as mountain waves, topographic wakes, and gap flows were observed. Our assessment of the 3D PBL parameterization also considers a large-eddy simulation (LES). We carried out a nested LES with grid cell sizes of 30 m and 10 m covering a large fraction of the WFIP2 study area. Both LES domains were discretized using 6000 x 3000 x 200 grid cells in zonal, meridional, and vertical direction, respectively. The LES results are used to assess the relative magnitude of horizontal gradients of turbulent stresses and fluxes in comparison to vertical gradients. The presentation will highlight the advantages of the 3D PBL scheme in regions of complex terrain.

Large-eddy Simulation of the Nighttime Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Bowen

A stable atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) develops over land at night due to radiative surface cooling. The state of turbulence in the stable boundary layer (SBL) is determined by the competing forcings of shear production and buoyancy destruction. When both forcings are comparable in strength, the SBL falls into an intermittently turbulent state, where intense turbulent bursts emerge sporadically from an overall quiescent background. This usually occurs on clear nights with weak winds when the SBL is strongly stable. Although turbulent bursts are generally short-lived (half an hour or less), their impact on the SBL is significant since they are responsible for most of the turbulent mixing. The nighttime SBL can be modeled with large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is a turbulence-resolving numerical approach which separates the large-scale energy-containing eddies from the smaller ones based on application of a spatial filter. While the large eddies are explicitly resolved, the small ones are represented by a subfilter-scale (SFS) stress model. Simulation of the SBL is more challenging than the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) because nighttime turbulent motions are limited by buoyancy stratification, thus requiring fine grid resolution at the cost of immense computational resources. The intermittently turbulent SBL adds additional levels of complexity, requiring the model to not only sustain resolved turbulence during quiescent periods, but also to transition into a turbulent state under appropriate conditions. As a result, LES of the strongly stable SBL potentially requires even finer grid resolution, and has seldom been attempted. This dissertation takes a different approach. By improving the SFS representation of turbulence with a more sophisticated model, intermittently turbulent SBL is simulated, to our knowledge, for the first time in the LES literature. The turbulence closure is the dynamic reconstruction model (DRM), applied under an explicit filtering and reconstruction LES framework. The DRM is a mixed model that consists of subgrid scale (SGS) and resolved subfilter scale (RSFS) components. The RSFS portion is represented by a scale-similarity model that allows for backscatter of energy from the SFS to the mean flow. Compared to conventional closures, the DRM is able to sustain resolved turbulence under moderate stability at coarser resolution (thus saving computational resources). The DRM performs equally well at fine resolution. Under strong stability, the DRM simulates an intermittently turbulent SBL, whereas conventional closures predict false laminar flows. The improved simulation methodology of the SBL has many potential applications in the area of wind energy, numerical weather prediction, pollution modeling and so on. The SBL is first simulated over idealized flat terrain with prescribed forcings and periodic lateral boundaries. A wide range of stability regimes, from weakly to strongly stable conditions, is tested to evaluate model performance. Under strongly stable conditions, intermittency due to mean shear and turbulence interactions is simulated and analyzed. Furthermore, results of the strongly stable SBL are used to improve wind farm siting and nighttime operations. Moving away from the idealized setting, the SBL is simulated over relatively flat terrain at a Kansas site over the Great Plains, where the Cooperative Atmospheric-Surface Exchange Study -- 1999 (CASES-99) took place. The LES obtains realistic initial and lateral boundary conditions from a meso-scale model reanalysis through a grid nesting procedure. Shear-instability induced intermittency observed on the night of Oct 5th during CASES-99 is reproduced to good temporal and magnitude agreement. The LES locates the origin of the shear-instability waves in a shallow upwind valley, and uncovers the intermittency mechanism to be wave breaking over a standing wave (formed over a stagnant cold-air bubble) across the valley. Finally, flow over the highly complex terrain of the Owens Valley in California is modeled with a similar nesting procedure. The LES results are validated with observation data from the 2006 Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX). The nested LES reproduces a transient nighttime warming event observed on the valley floor on April 17 during T-REX. The intermittency mechanism is shown to be through slope-valley flow transitions. In addition, a cold-air intrusion from the eastern valley sidewall is simulated. This generates an easterly cross-valley flow, and the associated top-down mixing through breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz billows is analyzed. Finally, the nesting methodology tested and optimized in the CASES-99 and T-REX studies is transferrable to general ABL applications. For example, a nested LES is performed to model daytime methane plume dispersion over a landfill and good results are obtained.

Simulation of the atmospheric thermal circulation of a martian volcano using a mesoscale numerical model.

PubMed

Rafkin, Scot C R; Sta Maria, Magdalena R V; Michaels, Timothy I

2002-10-17

Mesoscale (<100 km) atmospheric phenomena are ubiquitous on Mars, as revealed by Mars Orbiter Camera images. Numerical models provide an important means of investigating martian atmospheric dynamics, for which data availability is limited. But the resolution of general circulation models, which are traditionally used for such research, is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale phenomena. To provide better understanding of these relatively small-scale phenomena, mesoscale models have recently been introduced. Here we simulate the mesoscale spiral dust cloud observed over the caldera of the volcano Arsia Mons by using the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. Our simulation uses a hierarchy of nested models with grid sizes ranging from 240 km to 3 km, and reveals that the dust cloud is an indicator of a greater but optically thin thermal circulation that reaches heights of up to 30 km, and transports dust horizontally over thousands of kilometres.

Improving and Evaluating Nested Sampling Algorithm for Marginal Likelihood Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Zeng, X.; Wu, J.; Wang, D.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the growing impacts of climate change and human activities on the cycle of water resources, an increasing number of researches focus on the quantification of modeling uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a popular framework for quantifying conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. The ensemble prediction is generated by combining each plausible model's prediction, and each model is attached with a model weight which is determined by model's prior weight and marginal likelihood. Thus, the estimation of model's marginal likelihood is crucial for reliable and accurate BMA prediction. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed method for marginal likelihood estimation. The process of NSE is accomplished by searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm is often used for local sampling. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complicated parameter space. For improving the efficiency of NSE, it could be ideal to incorporate the robust and efficient sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling of NSE. The comparison results demonstrated that the improved NSE could improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation significantly. However, both improved and original NSEs suffer from heavy instability. In addition, the heavy computation cost of huge number of model executions is overcome by using an adaptive sparse grid surrogates.

Extraction and representation of nested catchment areas from digital elevation models in lake-dominated topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. Scott; Band, Lawrence E.

1998-04-01

This paper presents a new method for extracting flow directions, contributing (upslope) areas, and nested catchments from digital elevation models in lake-dominated areas. Existing tools for acquiring descriptive variables of the topography, such as surface flow directions and contributing areas, were developed for moderate to steep topography. These tools are typically difficult to apply in gentle topography owing to limitations in explicitly handling lakes and other flat areas. This paper addresses the problem of accurately representing general topographic features by first identifying distinguishing features, such as lakes, in gentle topography areas and then using these features to guide the search for topographic flow directions and catchment marking. Lakes are explicitly represented in the topology of a watershed for use in water routing. Nonlake flat features help guide the search for topographic flow directions in areas of low signal to noise. This combined feature-based and grid-based search for topographic features yields improved contributing areas and watershed boundaries where there are lakes and other flat areas. Lakes are easily classified from remotely sensed imagery, which makes automated representation of lakes as subsystems within a watershed system tractable with widely available data sets.

Downscaling modelling system for multi-scale air quality forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuterman, R.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Amstrup, B.; Weismann, J.

2010-09-01

Urban modelling for real meteorological situations, in general, considers only a small part of the urban area in a micro-meteorological model, and urban heterogeneities outside a modelling domain affect micro-scale processes. Therefore, it is important to build a chain of models of different scales with nesting of higher resolution models into larger scale lower resolution models. Usually, the up-scaled city- or meso-scale models consider parameterisations of urban effects or statistical descriptions of the urban morphology, whereas the micro-scale (street canyon) models are obstacle-resolved and they consider a detailed geometry of the buildings and the urban canopy. The developed system consists of the meso-, urban- and street-scale models. First, it is the Numerical Weather Prediction (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model combined with Atmospheric Chemistry Transport (the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions) model. Several levels of urban parameterisation are considered. They are chosen depending on selected scales and resolutions. For regional scale, the urban parameterisation is based on the roughness and flux corrections approach; for urban scale - building effects parameterisation. Modern methods of computational fluid dynamics allow solving environmental problems connected with atmospheric transport of pollutants within urban canopy in a presence of penetrable (vegetation) and impenetrable (buildings) obstacles. For local- and micro-scales nesting the Micro-scale Model for Urban Environment is applied. This is a comprehensive obstacle-resolved urban wind-flow and dispersion model based on the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes approach and several turbulent closures, i.e. k -ɛ linear eddy-viscosity model, k - ɛ non-linear eddy-viscosity model and Reynolds stress model. Boundary and initial conditions for the micro-scale model are used from the up-scaled models with corresponding interpolation conserving the mass. For the boundaries a kind of Dirichlet condition is chosen to provide the values based on interpolation from the coarse to the fine grid. When the roughness approach is changed to the obstacle-resolved one in the nested model, the interpolation procedure will increase the computational time (due to additional iterations) for meteorological/ chemical fields inside the urban sub-layer. In such situations, as a possible alternative, the perturbation approach can be applied. Here, the effects of main meteorological variables and chemical species are considered as a sum of two components: background (large-scale) values, described by the coarse-resolution model, and perturbations (micro-scale) features, obtained from the nested fine resolution model.

A Data-Model Comparison over Europe using a new 2000-yr Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Last-Millennium GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, Jason; Werner, Johannes; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Buntgen, Ulf; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Esper, Jan; Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J.; Luterbacher, Juerg; McCarroll, Danny; Wagner, Sebastian; Wahl, Eugene; Wanner, Heinz; Zorita, Eduardo

2013-04-01

A new reconstruction of European summer (JJA) land temperatures is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The reconstructions are derived from eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions, compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. A nested Composite-Plus-Scale (CPS) mean temperature reconstruction extending from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated using a weighted composite based on the correlation of each proxy with the CRUTEM4v mean European JJA land temperature (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). The CPS methodology was implemented using a sliding calibration period, initially extending from 1850-1953 C.E. and incrementing by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. A gridded (5°x5°) European summer (JJA) temperature reconstruction back to 750 C.E. was derived using Bayesian inference together with a localized stochastic description of the underlying processes. Instrumental data are JJA means from the 5° European land grid cells in the CRUTEM4v dataset. Predictive experiments using the full proxy data were made, resulting in a multivariate distribution of temperature reconstructions from 750-2003 C.E. The mean of this distribution is the optimal estimate of the gridded JJA temperature anomalies and its width provides objective reconstruction uncertainties. The derived reconstruction is compared to withheld instrumental and proxy data to evaluate reconstruction skill on decadal-to-centennial time scales. A comparison between the mean Bayesian and CPS reconstructions indicates remarkable agreement, with a correlation during their period of overlap of 0.95. In both the Bayesian and CPS reconstructions, warm periods during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to similar warm summer temperatures during the mid 20th century, although the 2003 summer remains the warmest single summer over the duration of the reconstructions. A relative period of cold summer temperatures is also noted from the 14th-19th centuries, consistent with the expected timing of the Little Ice Age. Comparisons between the reconstructions and the 37-member ensemble of millennium-length forced transient simulations from CGCMs, including eleven simulations from the collection of CMIP5/PMIP3 last-millennium experiments, indicate good regional agreement between reconstructions and models. Based on the separation of simulations into strong or weak scaling of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing over the last millennium, there is some evidence that there is better agreement with the ensemble using strong TSI as forcing.

Wind and Wave Driven Nearshore Circulation at Cape Hatteras Point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, N.; Voulgaris, G.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

2012-12-01

We have used a measurement and modeling approach to identify hydrodynamic processes responsible for alongshore transport of sediment that can support the maintenance of Diamond Shoals, NC, a large inner-shelf sedimentary convergent feature. As a part of Carolina Coastal Change Processes project, a one month field experiment was conducted around Cape Hatteras point during February, 2010. The instrumentation consisted of 15 acoustic current meters (measuring pressure and velocity profile) deployed in water depths varying from 3-10m and a very high frequency (VHF) beam forming radar system providing surface waves and currents with a resolution of 150 m and a spatial coverage of 10-15 km2. Analysis of field observation suggests that wind-driven circulation and littoral current dominate surf zone and inner shelf processes at least at an order higher than tidally rectified flows. However, the data analysis identified that relevant processes like non-linear advective acceleration, pressure gradient and vortex-force (due to interaction between wave-induced drift and mean flow vorticity), may be significant, but were not assessed accurately due to instrument location and accuracy. To obtain a deeper physical understanding of the hydrodynamics in this study-site, we applied a three-dimensional Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave_Sediment-Transport (COAWST) numerical model. The COAWST modeling system is comprised of nested, coupled, three-dimensional ocean-circulation model (ROMS) and wave propagation model (SWAN), configured for the study site to simulate wave height, direction, period and mean current velocities (both Eulerian and Lagrangian). The nesting follows a two-way grid refinement process for the circulation module, and one-way for the wave model. The coarsest parent grid resolved processes on the spatial and temporal scales of mid-shelf to inner-shelf, and subsequent child grids evolved at inner-shelf and surf zone scales. Preliminary results show that the model successfully reproduces wind-driven circulation and littoral currents. Furthermore, model simulation provides evidence for (a) circulation pattern suggesting a mechanism for sediment movement from littoral zone to the Diamond Shoals complex; (b) Diamond shoals complex acting as independent coastline, which restricts the littoral currents to follow the coastline orientation around Cape Hatteras point. As a part of this study, simulated hydrodynamic parameters will be validated against field observations of wave height and direction and Eulerian velocities from acoustic current meters, and sea surface maps of wave height and Lagrangian flows provided by the VHF radar. Moreover, the model results will be analyzed to (a) identify the significance of the terms in momentum balance which are not estimated accurately through field observations; (b) provide a quasi-quantitative estimate of sediment transport contributing to shoal building process.

Simulation of summertime ozone over North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Yevich, Rose M.; Gardner, Geraldine M.; Spivakovsky, Clarisa M.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Munger, J. W.; Sillman, Sanford; Prather, Michael J.; Rogers, Michael O.

1993-01-01

The concentrations of O3 and its precursors over North America are simulated for three summer months with a 3D, continental-scale photochemical model using meteorological input from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. The model has 4 x 5 deg grid resolution and represents nonlinear chemistry in urban and industrial plumes with a subgrid nested scheme. Simulated median afternoon O3 concentrations at rural U.S. sites are within 5 ppb of observations in most cases, except in the south central U.S., where concentrations are overpredicted by 15-20 ppb. The model captures successfully the development of regional high-O3 episodes over the northeastern United States on the back side of weak, warm, stagnant anticyclones. Simulated concentrations of CO and nonmethane hydrocarbons are generally in good agreement with observations, concentrations of NO(x) are underpredicted by 10-30 percent, and concentrations of PANs are overpredicted by a factor of 2 to 3. The overprediction of PANs is attributed to flaws in the photochemical mechanism, including excessive production from oxidation of isoprene, and may also reflect an underestimate of PANs deposition. Subgrid nonlinear chemistry as captured by the nested plumes scheme decreases the net O3 production computed in the U.S. boundary layer by 8 percent on average.

Regional climate simulations over complex topography using WRF: Andalusian present climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argüeso, D.; Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Calandria-Hernández, D.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2010-09-01

In this study three WRF simulations were carried out and analyzed to assess its accuracy to describe the main climate features of Southern Spain in terms of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Present climate was represented by the last 30 year of the 20th Century (1970-1999). The model was evaluated using an observational network distributed throughout Andalusia that comprised both temperatures and precipitation. Since comparison between site-specific measurements and model grid points is definitely troublesome due to differences in spatial-scale, a multi-step regionalization strategy was adopted to upscale observational information. This is of particular importance when studying complex topography regions such as Andalusia, with a wide range of climate conditions in a relative small area. Additionally, WRF outputs were also compared with SPAIN02, a 20-km resolution gridded dataset of precipitation for further validation of the model performance. The model set up consisted in two domains with one-way nesting and spectral nudging. The target domain has a resolution of 10km with 136 by 136 points covering the whole Iberian Peninsula and nested in a coarser domain of 30-km resolution and 130 by 120 grid points. Both domains have 35 vertical levels. Three different driving data were used to provide the boundary conditions, one reanalysis (ERA-40) and two control runs from different General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and CCSM 3.0). A conservative 7-month spin-up period was added to the 30-year simulation so that dependence on initial conditions can be completely removed. Physics options were chosen on the basis of previous parameterization sensitivity tests over Andalusia that led to a compromise configuration that adequately describes the different subclimates. Probability distributions of daily values as well as monthly statistics were examined to determine the uncertainties associated to each variable and take them into consideration for future regional high-resolution projections of climate change scenarios. These analyses permitted to conclude that WRF is an extremely useful tool due to the significant value-added information produced with respect to the driving data. Nonetheless, according to differences in performance between regions it has also been shown that results must be interpreted carefully depending on the region characteristics. Acknowledgements: The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER), project CGL2007-61151/CLI, and the Regional Government of Andalusia project P06-RNM-01622, have financed this study.

Meso-Beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass/momentum perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Yuh-Lang; Kaplan, Michael L.

1993-01-01

The Control-B simulation experiment was designed to improve on the Control-A experiment performed with the GMASS model. This experiment addressed several inadequacies with the first smooth terrain numerical simulation by including: (1) increased nested-grid resolution to better define the simulated gravity waves, (2) increased horizontal diffusion to remove outflow boundary condition noise, and (3) the use of reanalyzed rawinsonde data and surface observations in the initial state to increase the definition of the observed jet streak as well as other low-level features. A smoothed-terrain dry simulation with the nested-grid GMASS model has revealed many important aspects of the processes which resulted in the generation of gravity waves in the region and time when and where they were observed. However, the vertical structure, number, and characteristics of the waves are still quite different from observed waves as diagnosed thus necessitating future improved simulations. However, this control simulation has produced substantial insight into processes which occur on many spatial scales over a 30 hour time period thus allowing one to draw promising inferences as to the mechanisms for the complex process which occurred in nature during the CCOPE case study. The theoretical aspects of the project have focus on understanding the nature of the ageostrophic circulations which are produced in idealized models of the atmosphere in which the troposphere is modeled in one of two ways. The first model assumes that the lower atmosphere can be represented as a single layer of homogeneous fluid whose upper surface is free to exhibit vertical displacement. Two-dimensional internal convergence (divergence) occurring during the adjustment to an asymptotic equilibrium state from an ageostrophic initial state whose momentum structure is representative of a midlatitude localized zonal wind anomaly will cause the free upper surface of the homogeneous atmosphere to rise (fall), and therefore the response can be viewed as being physically three-dimensional. The second model assumes that the troposphere can be represented by an unbounded continuously stratified Boussinesq fluid of constant Brunt-Vaisala frequency N, where the vertical gradient of the basic state potential temperature profile allows for the existence of vertically propagating internal inertia-gravity waves.

Fine-scale application of WRF-CAM5 during a dust storm episode over East Asia: Sensitivity to grid resolutions and aerosol activation parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kai; Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-03-01

An advanced online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model WRF-CAM5 has been applied to East Asia using triple-nested domains at different grid resolutions (i.e., 36-, 12-, and 4-km) to simulate a severe dust storm period in spring 2010. Analyses are performed to evaluate the model performance and investigate model sensitivity to different horizontal grid sizes and aerosol activation parameterizations and to examine aerosol-cloud interactions and their impacts on the air quality. A comprehensive model evaluation of the baseline simulations using the default Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (AG) aerosol activation scheme shows that the model can well predict major meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature (T2), water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), 10-m wind speed (WS10) and wind direction (WD10), and shortwave and longwave radiation across different resolutions with domain-average normalized mean biases typically within ±15%. The baseline simulations also show moderate biases for precipitation and moderate-to-large underpredictions for other major variables associated with aerosol-cloud interactions such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud liquid water path (LWP) due to uncertainties or limitations in the aerosol-cloud treatments. The model performance is sensitive to grid resolutions, especially for surface meteorological variables such as T2, Q2, WS10, and WD10, with the performance generally improving at finer grid resolutions for those variables. Comparison of the sensitivity simulations with an alternative (i.e., the Fountoukis and Nenes (FN) series scheme) and the default (i.e., AG scheme) aerosol activation scheme shows that the former predicts larger values for cloud variables such as CDNC and COT across all grid resolutions and improves the overall domain-average model performance for many cloud/radiation variables and precipitation. Sensitivity simulations using the FN series scheme also have large impacts on radiations, T2, precipitation, and air quality (e.g., decreasing O3) through complex aerosol-radiation-cloud-chemistry feedbacks. The inclusion of adsorptive activation of dust particles in the FN series scheme has similar impacts on the meteorology and air quality but to lesser extent as compared to differences between the FN series and AG schemes. Compared to the overall differences between the FN series and AG schemes, impacts of adsorptive activation of dust particles can contribute significantly to the increase of total CDNC (∼45%) during dust storm events and indicate their importance in modulating regional climate over East Asia.

Modeling the propagation, transformation and the impact of tsunami on urban areas using the coupling STOC-ML/IC/CADMAS in nested grids - Application to specific sites of Chile to improve the tsunami induced loads prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokrani, C.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Arikawa, T.

2016-02-01

A large part of coasts around the world are affected by tsunami impacts, which supposes a challenge when designing coastal protection structures. Numerical models provide predictions of tsunami-induced loads and there time evolution, which can be used to improve sizing rules of coastal structures. However, the numerical assessment of impact loads is an hard stake. Indeed, recent experimental studies have shown that pressure dynamics generated during tsunami impacts are highly sensitive to the incident local shape of the tsunami. Therefore, high numerical resolutions and very accurate models are required to model all stages during which the tsunami shape is modified before the impact. Given the large distances involved in tsunami events, this can be disregarded in favor of computing time. The Port and Airport Research Institute (PARI) has recently developed a three-way coupled model which allows to accurately model the incident tsunami shape while maintaining reasonable computational time. This coupling approach uses three models used in nested grids (cf. Figure 1). The first one (STOC-ML) solves Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations with hydrostatic pressure. It is used to model the tsunami propagation off the coast. The second one (STOC-IC) is a 3D non-hydrostatic model, on which the free-surface position is estimated through the integrated continuity equation. It has shown to accurately describe dispersive and weakly linear effects occurring at the coast vicinity. The third model (CADMAS-SURF) solves fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and use a VOF method. Highly nonlinear, dispersive effects and wave breaking processes can be included at the wave scale and therefore, a very accurate description of the incident tsunami is provided. Each model have been separately validated from analytical and/or experimental data. The present objective is to highlight recent advances in Coastal Ocean modeling for tsunami modeling and loads prediction by applying this coupling approach to different sites of the Chilean coast. We first present validation tests to highlight the numerical abilities of this coupling. Then, two tsunami cases are considered and both near-shore processes and tsunami-induced loads on structures are analyzed.

Modeling CCN effects on tropical convection: An statistical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrio, G. G.; Cotton, W. R.; Massie, S. T.

2012-12-01

This modeling study examines the response of tropical convection to the enhancement of CCN concentrations from a statistical perspective. The sensitivity runs were performed using RAMS version 6.0, covering almost the entire Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment period (AMAZE, wet season of 2008). The main focus of the analysis was the indirect aerosol effects on the probability density functions (PDFs) of various cloud properties. RAMS was configured to work with four two-way interactive nested grids with 42 vertical levels and horizontal grid spacing of 150, 37.5, 7.5, and 1.5 km. Grids 2 and 3 were used to simulate the synoptic and mesoscale environments, while grid 4 was used to resolve deep convection. Comparisons were made using the finest grid with a domain size of 300 X 300km, approximately centered on the city of Manaus (3.1S, 60.01W). The vertical grid was stretched using with 75m spacing at the finest levels to provide better resolution within the first 1.5 km, and the model top extended to approximately 22 km above ground level. RAMS was initialized on February 10 2008 (00:00 UTC), the length of simulations was 32 days, and GSF data were used for initialization and nudging of the coarser-grid boundaries. The control run considered a CCN concentration of 300cm-3 while other several other simulations considered an influx of higher CCN concentrations (up to 1300/cc) . The latter concentration was observed near the end of the AMAZE project period. Both direct and indirect effects of these CCN particles were considered. Model output data (finest grid) every 15 min were used to compute the PDFs for each model level. When increasing aerosol concentrations, significant impacts were simulated for the PDFs of the water contents of various hydrometeors, vertical motions, area with precipitation, latent heat releases, among other quantities. In most cases, they exhibited a peculiar non-monotonic response similar to that seen in two previous studies of ours (for isolated cloud systems). It is well known that a reduction in sizes of cloud droplets reduces coalescence, increases their probability of reaching super-cooled levels, and convective cells are intensified by additional release of latent heat of freezing. However, indirect aerosol effects tend to revert when aerosol concentrations are greatly enhanced due to the riming efficiency reduction of ice particles. However, some quantities show a different response; for instance, the water content associated with small ice crystals large contents are always more likely at high levels when considering air masses more polluted in terms of CCN. Conversely, the PDF's of water contents of larger ice crystals at high altitudes exhibit the aforementioned non-monotonic behavior.

Tall-tower observations of pollution from near-field sources in central Texas during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Kort, E.; Hirsch, A.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Nehrkorn, T.; Michalak, A. M.; Petron, G.; Frost, G. J.; Gurney, K. R.; Stohl, A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Angevine, W. M.; White, A. B.; Oltmans, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Tans, P. P.

2008-12-01

The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory has been measuring CO2, CO and basic meteorology from a television transmitter tower outside of Waco, TX since 2001. Sample intakes are located at 30, 122 and 457 meters above ground level. From July through November 2006, O3 measurements were added at 9 and 457 magl to support the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS 2006). There are several large point sources and metropolitan areas in the vicinity of the tower with distinct chemical signatures. Here, we evaluate the extent to which the Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model reproduces pollution events that were observed at the tower during summer and fall 2006. For this study, STILT is driven by customized output from the WRF model v2.2, which was run with a 2km nested grid surrounding the tower embedded in a 10km nest that covers most of the southern and eastern US and a 40km nest that includes all of North America. Inaccurate representation of atmospheric transport is a major source of error in inverse estimates of fluxes of CO2 and other gases, and we selected this period for in depth analysis in part because a dense network of radar profilers was deployed for TexAQS 2006. The radar profilers report wind and boundary layer height, which can be used to evaluate the fidelity of the simulated transport. STILT is a particle dispersion model that can be run either forward or backward in time, which allows us to compare the agreement between forward runs from individual pollution sources and backward runs from the tower. We will also quantitatively compare the STILT-WRF results with similar output from the FLEXPART particle dispersion model driven by high-resolution ECMWF meteorological fields. We will use several different emissions inventories to evaluate model-to-model differences and differences between modeled and observed pollution influences.

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Atmospheric transport simulations in support of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, J. M.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Mountain, M. E.; Nehrkorn, T.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Steiner, N.; Wofsy, S. C.; Miller, C. E.

2014-10-01

This paper describes the atmospheric modeling that underlies the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) science analysis, including its meteorological and atmospheric transport components (Polar variant of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) models), and provides WRF validation for May-October 2012 and March-November 2013 - the first two years of the aircraft field campaign. A triply nested computational domain for WRF was chosen so that the innermost domain with 3.3 km grid spacing encompasses the entire mainland of Alaska and enables the substantial orography of the state to be represented by the underlying high-resolution topographic input field. Summary statistics of the WRF model performance on the 3.3 km grid indicate good overall agreement with quality-controlled surface and radiosonde observations. Two-meter temperatures are generally too cold by approximately 1.4 K in 2012 and 1.1 K in 2013, while 2 m dewpoint temperatures are too low (dry) by 0.2 K in 2012 and too high (moist) by 0.6 K in 2013. Wind speeds are biased too low by 0.2 m s-1 in 2012 and 0.3 m s-1 in 2013. Model representation of upper level variables is very good. These measures are comparable to model performance metrics of similar model configurations found in the literature. The high quality of these fine-resolution WRF meteorological fields inspires confidence in their use to drive STILT for the purpose of computing surface influences ("footprints") at commensurably increased resolution. Indeed, footprints generated on a 0.1° grid show increased spatial detail compared with those on the more common 0.5° grid, lending itself better for convolution with flux models for carbon dioxide and methane across the heterogeneous Alaskan landscape. Ozone deposition rates computed using STILT footprints indicate good agreement with observations and exhibit realistic seasonal variability, further indicating that WRF-STILT footprints are of high quality and will support accurate estimates of CO2 and CH4 surface-atmosphere fluxes using CARVE observations.

Atmospheric transport simulations in support of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, J. M.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Mountain, M. E.; Nehrkorn, T.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Steiner, N.; Wofsy, S. C.; Miller, C. E.

2015-04-01

This paper describes the atmospheric modeling that underlies the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) science analysis, including its meteorological and atmospheric transport components (polar variant of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) models), and provides WRF validation for May-October 2012 and March-November 2013 - the first 2 years of the aircraft field campaign. A triply nested computational domain for WRF was chosen so that the innermost domain with 3.3 km grid spacing encompasses the entire mainland of Alaska and enables the substantial orography of the state to be represented by the underlying high-resolution topographic input field. Summary statistics of the WRF model performance on the 3.3 km grid indicate good overall agreement with quality-controlled surface and radiosonde observations. Two-meter temperatures are generally too cold by approximately 1.4 K in 2012 and 1.1 K in 2013, while 2 m dewpoint temperatures are too low (dry) by 0.2 K in 2012 and too high (moist) by 0.6 K in 2013. Wind speeds are biased too low by 0.2 m s-1 in 2012 and 0.3 m s-1 in 2013. Model representation of upper level variables is very good. These measures are comparable to model performance metrics of similar model configurations found in the literature. The high quality of these fine-resolution WRF meteorological fields inspires confidence in their use to drive STILT for the purpose of computing surface influences ("footprints") at commensurably increased resolution. Indeed, footprints generated on a 0.1° grid show increased spatial detail compared with those on the more common 0.5° grid, better allowing for convolution with flux models for carbon dioxide and methane across the heterogeneous Alaskan landscape. Ozone deposition rates computed using STILT footprints indicate good agreement with observations and exhibit realistic seasonal variability, further indicating that WRF-STILT footprints are of high quality and will support accurate estimates of CO2 and CH4 surface-atmosphere fluxes using CARVE observations.

Interference Lattice-based Loop Nest Tilings for Stencil Computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanderWijngaart, Rob F.; Frumkin, Michael

2000-01-01

A common method for improving performance of stencil operations on structured multi-dimensional discretization grids is loop tiling. Tile shapes and sizes are usually determined heuristically, based on the size of the primary data cache. We provide a lower bound on the numbers of cache misses that must be incurred by any tiling, and a close achievable bound using a particular tiling based on the grid interference lattice. The latter tiling is used to derive highly efficient loop orderings. The total number of cache misses of a code is the sum of (necessary) cold misses and misses caused by elements being dropped from the cache between successive loads (replacement misses). Maximizing temporal locality is equivalent to minimizing replacement misses. Temporal locality of loop nests implementing stencil operations is optimized by tilings that avoid data conflicts. We divide the loop nest iteration space into conflict-free tiles, derived from the cache miss equation. The tiling involves the definition of the grid interference lattice an equivalence class of grid points whose images in main memory map to the same location in the cache-and the construction of a special basis for the lattice. Conflicts only occur on the boundaries of the tiles, unless the tiles are too thin. We show that the surface area of the tiles is bounded for grids of any dimensionality, and for caches of any associativity, provided the eccentricity of the fundamental parallelepiped (the tile spanned by the basis) of the lattice is bounded. Eccentricity is determined by two factors, aspect ratio and skewness. The aspect ratio of the parallelepiped can be bounded by appropriate array padding. The skewness can be bounded by the choice of a proper basis. Combining these two strategies ensures that pathologically thin tiles are avoided. They do not, however, minimize replacement misses per se. The reason is that tile visitation order influences the number of data conflicts on the tile boundaries. If two adjacent tiles are visited successively, there will be no replacement misses on the shared boundary. The iteration space may be covered with pencils larger than the size of the cache while avoiding data conflicts if the pencils are traversed by a scanning-face method. Replacement misses are incurred only on the boundaries of the pencils, and the number of misses is minimized by maximizing the volume of the scanning face, not the volume of the tile. We present an algorithm for constructing the most efficient scanning face for a given grid and stencil operator. In two dimensions it is based on a continued fraction algorithm. In three dimensions it follows Voronoi's successive minima algorithm. We show experimental results of using the scanning face, and compare with canonical loop orderings.

Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Gregory D.; McKay, James; Farmer, Ben; Scott, Pat; Roebber, Elinore; Putze, Antje; Conrad, Jan

2017-11-01

We introduce ScannerBit, the statistics and sampling module of the public, open-source global fitting framework GAMBIT. ScannerBit provides a standardised interface to different sampling algorithms, enabling the use and comparison of multiple computational methods for inferring profile likelihoods, Bayesian posteriors, and other statistical quantities. The current version offers random, grid, raster, nested sampling, differential evolution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and ensemble Monte Carlo samplers. We also announce the release of a new standalone differential evolution sampler, Diver, and describe its design, usage and interface to ScannerBit. We subject Diver and three other samplers (the nested sampler MultiNest, the MCMC GreAT, and the native ScannerBit implementation of the ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm T-Walk) to a battery of statistical tests. For this we use a realistic physical likelihood function, based on the scalar singlet model of dark matter. We examine the performance of each sampler as a function of its adjustable settings, and the dimensionality of the sampling problem. We evaluate performance on four metrics: optimality of the best fit found, completeness in exploring the best-fit region, number of likelihood evaluations, and total runtime. For Bayesian posterior estimation at high resolution, T-Walk provides the most accurate and timely mapping of the full parameter space. For profile likelihood analysis in less than about ten dimensions, we find that Diver and MultiNest score similarly in terms of best fit and speed, outperforming GreAT and T-Walk; in ten or more dimensions, Diver substantially outperforms the other three samplers on all metrics.

Novel Acoustic Techniques for Assessing Fish Schooling in the Context of an Operational Ocean Observatory

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

adaptively using real-time data collected with the international constellation of ocean color satellites, a nested grid of HF radars, and an...scattering source was identified during the experiment as dense, monotypic aggregations of a pelagic gastropod were located during a 2-day period. These

Novel Acoustic Techniques for Assessing Fish Schooling in the Context of an Operational Ocean Observatory

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

adaptively using real-time data collected with the international constellation of ocean color satellites, a nested grid of HF radars, and an operational... gastropod were located during a 2-day period. These aggregations were remarkablystrong scatterers at frequencies ranging from 38-200 kHz. Data

Non-Hydrostatic Modelling of Waves and Currents over Subtle Bathymetric Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, E.; Mulligan, R. P.; McNinch, J.

2014-12-01

Localized areas with high rates of shoreline erosion on beaches, referred to as erosional hotspots, can occur near clusters of relict shore-oblique sandbars. Wave transformation and wave-driven currents over these morphological features could provide an understanding of the hydrodynamic-morphologic coupling mechanism that connects them to the occurrence of erosional hotspots. To investigate this, we use the non-hydrostatic SWASH model that phase-resolves the free surface and fluid motions throughout the water column, allowing for high resolution of wave propagation and breaking processes. In this study we apply a coupled system of nested models including SWAN over a large domain of the North Carolina shelf with smaller nested SWASH domains in areas of interest to determine the hydrodynamic processes occurring over shore oblique bars. In this presentation we focus on a high resolution grid (10 vertical layers, 10 m horizontal resolution) applied to the Duck region with model validation from acoustic wave and current data, and observations from the Coastal Lidar And Radar Imaging System (CLARIS). By altering the bathymetry input for each model run based on bathymetric surveys and comparing the predicted and observed wave heights and current profiles, the effects of subtle bathymetric perturbations have on wave refraction, wave breaking, surf zone currents and vorticity are investigated. The ability to predict wave breaking and hydrodynamics with a non-hydrostatic model may improve our understanding of surf zone dynamics in relation to morphologic conditions.

A Fast Full Tensor Gravity computation algorithm for High Resolution 3D Geologic Interpretations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaram, V.; Crain, K.; Keller, G. R.

2011-12-01

We present an algorithm to rapidly calculate the vertical gravity and full tensor gravity (FTG) values due to a 3-D geologic model. This algorithm can be implemented on single, multi-core CPU and graphical processing units (GPU) architectures. Our technique is based on the line element approximation with a constant density within each grid cell. This type of parameterization is well suited for high-resolution elevation datasets with grid size typically in the range of 1m to 30m. The large high-resolution data grids in our studies employ a pre-filtered mipmap pyramid type representation for the grid data known as the Geometry clipmap. The clipmap was first introduced by Microsoft Research in 2004 to do fly-through terrain visualization. This method caches nested rectangular extents of down-sampled data layers in the pyramid to create view-dependent calculation scheme. Together with the simple grid structure, this allows the gravity to be computed conveniently on-the-fly, or stored in a highly compressed format. Neither of these capabilities has previously been available. Our approach can perform rapid calculations on large topographies including crustal-scale models derived from complex geologic interpretations. For example, we used a 1KM Sphere model consisting of 105000 cells at 10m resolution with 100000 gravity stations. The line element approach took less than 90 seconds to compute the FTG and vertical gravity on an Intel Core i7 CPU at 3.07 GHz utilizing just its single core. Also, unlike traditional gravity computational algorithms, the line-element approach can calculate gravity effects at locations interior or exterior to the model. The only condition that must be met is the observation point cannot be located directly above the line element. Therefore, we perform a location test and then apply appropriate formulation to those data points. We will present and compare the computational performance of the traditional prism method versus the line element approach on different CPU-GPU system configurations. The algorithm calculates the expected gravity at station locations where the observed gravity and FTG data were acquired. This algorithm can be used for all fast forward model calculations of 3D geologic interpretations for data from airborne, space and submarine gravity, and FTG instrumentation.

The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

2016-02-01

An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Fred; Zack, John; Schmidt, Jerry; Snook, John; Benjamin, Stan; Stauffer, David

1993-01-01

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Modeling urban air pollution in Budapest using WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovács, Attila; Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Mészáros, Róbert

2017-04-01

Air pollution is a major problem for urban areas since the industrial revolution, including Budapest, the capital and largest city of Hungary. The main anthropogenic sources of air pollutants are industry, traffic and residential heating. In this study, we investigated the contribution of major industrial point sources to the urban air pollution in Budapest. We used the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather prediction system online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem, version 3.6).The model was configured with three nested domains with grid spacings of 15, 5 and 1 km, representing Central Europe, the Carpathian Basin and Budapest with its surrounding area. Emission data was obtained from the National Environmental Information System. The point source emissions were summed in their respective cells in the second nested domain according to latitude-longitude coordinates. The main examined air pollutants were carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), from which the secondary compound, ozone (O3) forms through chemical reactions. Simulations were performed under different weather conditions and compared to observations from the automatic monitoring site of the Hungarian Air Quality Network. Our results show that the industrial emissions have a relatively weak role in the urban background air pollution, confirming the effect of industrial developments and regulations in the recent decades. However, a few significant industrial sources and their impact area has been demonstrated.

Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Stefan; Greenslade, Diana; Kepert, Jeffrey D.

2018-05-01

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4∘) and regional (resolution 1/10∘) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

Analyzing Spatial and Temporal Variation in Precipitation Estimates in a Coupled Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomkins, C. D.; Springer, E. P.; Costigan, K. R.

2001-12-01

Integrated modeling efforts at the Los Alamos National Laboratory aim to simulate the hydrologic cycle and study the impacts of climate variability and land use changes on water resources and ecosystem function at the regional scale. The integrated model couples three existing models independently responsible for addressing the atmospheric, land surface, and ground water components: the Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS), the Los Alamos Distributed Hydrologic System (LADHS), and the Finite Element and Heat Mass (FEHM). The upper Rio Grande Basin, extending 92,000 km2 over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, serves as the test site for this model. RAMS uses nested grids to simulate meteorological variables, with the smallest grid over the Rio Grande having 5-km horizontal grid spacing. As LADHS grid spacing is 100 m, a downscaling approach is needed to estimate meteorological variables from the 5km RAMS grid for input into LADHS. This study presents daily and cumulative precipitation predictions, in the month of October for water year 1993, and an approach to compare LADHS downscaled precipitation to RAMS-simulated precipitation. The downscaling algorithm is based on kriging, using topography as a covariate to distribute the precipitation and thereby incorporating the topographical resolution achieved at the 100m-grid resolution in LADHS. The results of the downscaling are analyzed in terms of the level of variance introduced into the model, mean simulated precipitation, and the correlation between the LADHS and RAMS estimates. Previous work presented a comparison of RAMS-simulated and observed precipitation recorded at COOP and SNOTEL sites. The effects of downscaling the RAMS precipitation were evaluated using Spearman and linear correlations and by examining the variance of both populations. The study focuses on determining how the downscaling changes the distribution of precipitation compared to the RAMS estimates. Spearman correlations computed for the LADHS and RAMS cumulative precipitation reveal a disassociation over time, with R equal to 0.74 at day eight and R equal to 0.52 at day 31. Linear correlation coefficients (Pearson) returned a stronger initial correlation of 0.97, decreasing to 0.68. The standard deviations for the 2500 LADHS cells underlying each 5km RAMS cell range from 8 mm to 695 mm in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and 2 mm to 112 mm in the San Luis Valley. Comparatively, the standard deviations of the RAMS estimates in these regions are 247 mm and 30 mm respectively. The LADHS standard deviations provide a measure of the variability introduced through the downscaling routine, which exceeds RAMS regional variability by a factor of 2 to 4. The coefficient of variation for the average LADHS grid cell values and the RAMS cell values in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains are 0.66 and 0.27, respectively, and 0.79 and 0.75 in the San Luis Valley. The coefficients of variation evidence the uniformity of the higher precipitation estimates in the mountains, especially for RAMS, and also the lower means and variability found in the valley. Additionally, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests indicate clear spatial and temporal differences in mean simulated precipitation across the grid.

Assessment of Preconditioner for a USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Method (HANIM) (Invited)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandya, Mohagna J.; Diskin, Boris; Thomas, James L.; Frink, Neal T.

2016-01-01

Enhancements to the previously reported mixed-element USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Iteration Method (HANIM) framework have been made to further improve robustness, efficiency, and accuracy of computational fluid dynamic simulations. The key enhancements include a multi-color line-implicit preconditioner, a discretely consistent symmetry boundary condition, and a line-mapping method for the turbulence source term discretization. The USM3D iterative convergence for the turbulent flows is assessed on four configurations. The configurations include a two-dimensional (2D) bump-in-channel, the 2D NACA 0012 airfoil, a three-dimensional (3D) bump-in-channel, and a 3D hemisphere cylinder. The Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions have been obtained using a Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and families of uniformly refined nested grids. Two types of HANIM solutions using line- and point-implicit preconditioners have been computed. Additional solutions using the point-implicit preconditioner alone (PA) method that broadly represents the baseline solver technology have also been computed. The line-implicit HANIM shows superior iterative convergence in most cases with progressively increasing benefits on finer grids.

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Wired: impacts of increasing power line use by a growing bird population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Francisco; Encarnação, Vitor; Rosa, Gonçalo; Gilbert, Nathalie; Infante, Samuel; Costa, Julieta; D'Amico, Marcello; Martins, Ricardo C.; Catry, Inês

2017-02-01

Power lines are increasingly widespread across many regions of the planet. Although these linear infrastructures are known for their negative impacts on bird populations, through collision and electrocution, some species take advantage of electricity pylons for nesting. In this case, estimation of the net impact of these infrastructures at the population level requires an assessment of trade-offs between positive and negative impacts. We compiled historical information (1958-2014) of the Portuguese white stork Ciconia ciconia population to analyze long-term changes in numbers, distribution range and use of nesting structures. White stork population size increased 660% up to 12000 breeding pairs between 1984 and 2014. In the same period, the proportion of nests on electricity pylons increased from 1% to 25%, likely facilitated by the 60% increase in the length of the very high tension power line grid (holding the majority of the nests) in the stork’s distribution range. No differences in breeding success were registered for storks nesting on electricity pylons versus other structures, but a high risk of mortality by collision and electrocution with power lines was estimated. We discuss the implications of this behavioral change, and of the management responses by power line companies, both for stork populations and for managers.

Large Eddy Simulation of Cirrus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Ting; Cotton, William R.

1999-01-01

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) with mesoscale interactive nested-grids and a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) version of RAMS, coupled to two-moment microphysics and a new two-stream radiative code were used to investigate the dynamic, microphysical, and radiative aspects of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event. Wu (1998) describes the results of that research in full detail and is enclosed as Appendix 1. The mesoscale nested grid simulation successfully reproduced the large scale circulation as compared to the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System's (MAPS) analyses and other observations. Three cloud bands which match nicely to the three cloud lines identified in an observational study (Mace et al., 1995) are predicted on Grid #2 of the nested grids, even though the mesoscale simulation predicts a larger west-east cloud width than what was observed. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes in the 26 November 1991 FIRE 11 cirrus event. The LES model is based on the RAMS version 3b developed at Colorado State University. It includes a new radiation scheme developed by Harrington (1997) and a new subgrid scale model developed by Kosovic (1996). The LES model simulated a single cloud layer for Case 1 and a two-layer cloud structure for Case 2. The simulations demonstrated that latent heat release can play a significant role in the formation and development of cirrus clouds. For the thin cirrus in Case 1, the latent heat release was insufficient for the cirrus clouds to become positively buoyant. However, in some special cases such as Case 2, positively buoyant cells can be embedded within the cirrus layers. These cells were so active that the rising updraft induced its own pressure perturbations that affected the cloud evolution. Vertical profiles of the total radiative and latent heating rates indicated that for well developed, deep, and active cirrus clouds, radiative cooling and latent heating could be comparable in magnitude in the cloudy layer. This implies that latent heating cannot be neglected in the construction of a cirrus cloud model. The probability density function (PDF) of w was analyzed to assist in the parameterization of cloud-scale velocities in large-scale models. For the more radiatively-driven, thin cirrus case, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian. However, in the interior of the deep, convectively unstable case, the PDFs of w are multi-modal and very broad, indicating that parameterizing cloud-scale motions for such clouds can be very challenging. The results of this research are described in detail in a paper submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu and Cotton, 1999), which is enclosed as Appendix 2. Using soundings extracted from a mesoscale simulation of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, the radiative effects on vapor deposition/sublimation of ice crystals was studied using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) version of RAMS, coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysics. The CRM simulations of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event demonstrate that the radiative impact on the diffusional growth (or sublimation) of ice crystals is significant. In this case, the ice particles experienced radiative warming. Model results show that radiative feedbacks in the diffusional growth of ice particles can be very complex. Radiative warming of an ice particle will restrict the particle's diffusional growth. In the case of radiative warming, ice particles larger than a certain size will experience so much radiative warming that surface ice saturation vapor pressures become large enough to cause sublimation of the larger crystals, while smaller crystals are growing by vapor deposition. However, ice mass production can be enhanced in the case of radiative cooling of an ice particle. For the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, radiative feedback results in significant reduction in the total ice mass, especially in the production of large ice crystals, and consequently, both radiative and dynamic properties of the cirrus cloud are significantly affected. A complete description of this research has been submitted as a paper to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu et al., 1999), and included as Appendix 3.

Sensitivity Analysis of Delft3d Simulations at Duck, NC, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penko, A.; Boggs, S.; Palmsten, M.

2017-12-01

Our objective is to set up and test Delft3D, a high-resolution coupled wave and circulation model, to provide real-time nowcasts of hydrodynamics at Duck, NC, USA. Here, we test the sensitivity of the model to various parameters and boundary conditions. In order to validate the model simulations we compared the results to observational data. Duck, NC was chosen as our test site due to the extensive array of observational oceanographic, bathymetric, and meteorological data collected by the Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF). Observations were recorded with Acoustic Wave and Current meters (AWAC) at 6-m and 11-m depths as well as a 17-m depth Waverider buoy. The model is set up with an outer and inner nested domain. The outer grid extends 12-km in the along-shore and 3.5-km in the cross-shore with a 50-m resolution and a maximum depth of 17-m. Spectral wave measurements from the 17-m Waverider buoy drove Delft3D-WAVE in the outer grid. We compared the results of five outer grid simulations to wave and current observations collected at the FRF. The model simulations are then compared to the wave and current measurements collected at the 6-m and 11-m AWACs. To determine the best parameters and boundary conditions for the model set up at Duck, we calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) between the simulation results and the observations. Several conclusions were made: 1) The addition of astronomic tides have a significant effect on the circulation magnitude and direction, 2) incorporating an updated bathymetry in the bottom boundary condition has a small effect in shallower (<8-m) depths, 3) decreasing the wave bed friction by 50% did not affect the wave predictions and 4) the accuracy of the simulated wave heights improved as wind and wave forcing at the lateral boundaries were included.

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

PubMed Central

Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew; Adler, Peter H; Urbanek, Richard P; Barzen, Jeb A

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults. PMID:24340185

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami-tide simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grilli, Annette R.

2016-12-01

This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one-way coupling. Four levels of nested grids are used, from a 1 arc-min spherical coordinate grid in the deep ocean down to a 39-m Cartesian grid in the HRE. Bottom friction coefficients in the finer grids are calibrated for the tide to achieve the local spatially averaged MHW level at high tide in the HRE. Combined tsunami-tide simulations are then performed for four phases of the tide corresponding to each tsunami arriving at Sandy Hook (NJ): 1.5 h ahead, concurrent with, 1.5 h after, and 3 h after the local high tide. These simulations are forced along the offshore boundary of the third-level grid by linearly superposing time series of surface elevation and horizontal currents of the calibrated tide and each tsunami wave train; this is done in deep enough water for a linear superposition to be accurate. Combined tsunami-tide simulations are then performed with FUNWAVE-TVD in this and the finest nested grids. Results show that, for the 3 PMTs, depending on the tide phase, the dynamic simulations lead to no or to a slightly increased inundation in the HRE (by up to 0.15 m depending on location), and to larger currents than for the simulations over a static level; the CRT SMF proxy tsunami is the PMT leading to maximum inundation in the HRE. For all tide phases, nonlinear interactions between tide and tsunami currents modify the elevation, current, and celerity of tsunami wave trains, mostly in the shallower water areas of the HRE where bottom friction dominates, as compared to a linear superposition of wave elevations and currents. We note that, while dynamic simulations predict a slight increase in inundation, this increase may be on the same order as, or even less than sources of uncertainty in the modeling of tsunami sources, such as their initial water elevation, and in bottom friction and bathymetry used in tsunami grids. Nevertheless, results in this paper provide insight into the magnitude and spatial variability of tsunami propagation and impact in the complex inland waterways surrounding New York City, and of their modification by dynamic tidal effects. We conclude that changes in inundation resulting from the inclusion of a dynamic tide in the specific case of the HRE, although of scientific interest, are not significant for tsunami hazard assessment and that the standard approach of specifying a static reference level equal to MHW is conservative. However, in other estuaries with similarly complex bathymetry/topography and stronger tidal currents, a simplified static approach might not be appropriate.

Investigating Anomalies in the Output Generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decicco, Nicholas; Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David

2015-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is an advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model comprised of two numerical cores, the Numerical Mesoscale Modeling (NMM) core, and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. An investigation was done to determine the source of erroneous output generated by the NMM core. In particular were the appearance of zero values at regularly spaced grid cells in output fields and the NMM core's evident (mis)use of static geographic information at a resolution lower than the nesting level for which the core is performing computation. A brief discussion of the high-level modular architecture of the model is presented as well as methods utilized to identify the cause of these problems. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Monitoring Finnish Owls 1982-1996: methods and results

Treesearch

Pertti Saurola

1997-01-01

In 1982, the Raptor Grid, a nation-wide program for monitoring birds of prey was started by the Finnish Ringing Centre. Voluntary banders were asked to select a 10 x 10 km study plot and find annually all active nests or at least occupied territories of birds of prey from their study plot (annual total averaged 120). Since 1986, additional...

Fully automatic hp-adaptivity for acoustic and electromagnetic scattering in three dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtz, Jason Patrick

We present an algorithm for fully automatic hp-adaptivity for finite element approximations of elliptic and Maxwell boundary value problems in three dimensions. The algorithm automatically generates a sequence of coarse grids, and a corresponding sequence of fine grids, such that the energy norm of the error decreases exponentially with respect to the number of degrees of freedom in either sequence. At each step, we employ a discrete optimization algorithm to determine the refinements for the current coarse grid such that the projection-based interpolation error for the current fine grid solution decreases with an optimal rate with respect to the number of degrees of freedom added by the refinement. The refinements are restricted only by the requirement that the resulting mesh is at most 1-irregular, but they may be anisotropic in both element size h and order of approximation p. While we cannot prove that our method converges at all, we present numerical evidence of exponential convergence for a diverse suite of model problems from acoustic and electromagnetic scattering. In particular we show that our method is well suited to the automatic resolution of exterior problems truncated by the introduction of a perfectly matched layer. To enable and accelerate the solution of these problems on commodity hardware, we include a detailed account of three critical aspects of our implementation, namely an efficient implementation of sum factorization, several efficient interfaces to the direct multi-frontal solver MUMPS, and some fast direct solvers for the computation of a sequence of nested projections.

Creation of parallel algorithms for the solution of problems of gas dynamics on multi-core computers and GPU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybakin, B.; Bogatencov, P.; Secrieru, G.; Iliuha, N.

2013-10-01

The paper deals with a parallel algorithm for calculations on multiprocessor computers and GPU accelerators. The calculations of shock waves interaction with low-density bubble results and the problem of the gas flow with the forces of gravity are presented. This algorithm combines a possibility to capture a high resolution of shock waves, the second-order accuracy for TVD schemes, and a possibility to observe a low-level diffusion of the advection scheme. Many complex problems of continuum mechanics are numerically solved on structured or unstructured grids. To improve the accuracy of the calculations is necessary to choose a sufficiently small grid (with a small cell size). This leads to the drawback of a substantial increase of computation time. Therefore, for the calculations of complex problems it is reasonable to use the method of Adaptive Mesh Refinement. That is, the grid refinement is performed only in the areas of interest of the structure, where, e.g., the shock waves are generated, or a complex geometry or other such features exist. Thus, the computing time is greatly reduced. In addition, the execution of the application on the resulting sequence of nested, decreasing nets can be parallelized. Proposed algorithm is based on the AMR method. Utilization of AMR method can significantly improve the resolution of the difference grid in areas of high interest, and from other side to accelerate the processes of the multi-dimensional problems calculating. Parallel algorithms of the analyzed difference models realized for the purpose of calculations on graphic processors using the CUDA technology [1].

Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for the LANTEX 2013 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, Jose M.; Macías, Jorge; Mercado, Aurelio; Ortega, Sergio; Castro, Manuel J.

2017-04-01

Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami EXercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases, is performed with both models but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Some comparisons with the MOST tsunami model available at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) are made. Both models compare well for propagating tsunami waves in open sea, producing very similar results. In near-shore shallow waters, Tsunami-HySEA should be compared with the inundation version of MOST, since the propagation version of MOST is limited to deeper waters. Regarding the inundation phase, a 1 arc-sec (approximately 30 m) resolution mesh covering all of Puerto Rico, is used, and a three-level nested meshes technique implemented. In the inundation phase, larger differences between model results are observed. Nevertheless, the most striking difference resides in computational time; Tsunami-HySEA is coded using the advantages of GPU architecture, and can produce a 4 h simulation in a 60 arcsec resolution grid for the whole Caribbean Sea in less than 4 min with a single general-purpose GPU and as fast as 11 s with 32 general-purpose GPUs. In the inundation stage with nested meshes, approximately 8 hours of wall clock time is needed for a 2-h simulation in a single GPU (versus more than 2 days for the MOST inundation, running three different parts of the island—West, Center, East—at the same time due to memory limitations in MOST). When domain decomposition techniques are finally implemented by breaking up the computational domain into sub-domains and assigning a GPU to each sub-domain (multi-GPU Tsunami-HySEA version), we show that the wall clock time significantly decreases, allowing high-resolution inundation modelling in very short computational times, reducing, for example, if eight GPUs are used, the wall clock time to around 1 hour. Besides, these computational times are obtained using general-purpose GPU hardware.

A parallel second-order adaptive mesh algorithm for incompressible flow in porous media.

PubMed

Pau, George S H; Almgren, Ann S; Bell, John B; Lijewski, Michael J

2009-11-28

In this paper, we present a second-order accurate adaptive algorithm for solving multi-phase, incompressible flow in porous media. We assume a multi-phase form of Darcy's law with relative permeabilities given as a function of the phase saturation. The remaining equations express conservation of mass for the fluid constituents. In this setting, the total velocity, defined to be the sum of the phase velocities, is divergence free. The basic integration method is based on a total-velocity splitting approach in which we solve a second-order elliptic pressure equation to obtain a total velocity. This total velocity is then used to recast component conservation equations as nonlinear hyperbolic equations. Our approach to adaptive refinement uses a nested hierarchy of logically rectangular grids with simultaneous refinement of the grids in both space and time. The integration algorithm on the grid hierarchy is a recursive procedure in which coarse grids are advanced in time, fine grids are advanced multiple steps to reach the same time as the coarse grids and the data at different levels are then synchronized. The single-grid algorithm is described briefly, but the emphasis here is on the time-stepping procedure for the adaptive hierarchy. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the algorithm's accuracy and convergence properties and to illustrate the behaviour of the method.

Numerical simulation of tornadoes' meteorological conditions over Greece: A case study of tornadic activity over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Recent research revealed that NW Peloponnese, Greece is an area that favours pre-frontal tornadic incidence. This study presents the results of the synoptic analysis of the meteorological conditions during a tornado event over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009. Further, the role of topography in tornado genesis is examined. The tornado was formed approximately at 10:30 UTC, south-west of Vardas village, crossed the Nea Manolada and faded away at Lappas village, causing several damage. The length of its track was approximately 9-10 km and this tornado was characterized as F2 (Fujita scale) or T4-T5 in TORRO intensity scale. Synoptic analysis was based on ECMWF datasets, as well as on daily composite mean and anomaly of the geopotential heights at the middle and lower troposphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In addition, numerous datasets derived from weather observations and remote sensing were used in order to interpret better the examined extreme event. Finally, a numerical simulation was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. In the numerical simulations the topography of the inner grid was modified by: a) 0% (actual topography) and b) -100% (without topography).

Evaluation of WRF-CHEM Model: A case study of Air Pollution Episode in Istanbul Metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydınöz, Esra; Gürer, Kemal; Toros, Hüseyin

2014-05-01

Istanbul is the largest city in Europe with a population of about 14 million and nearly 3.2 million registered vehicles. Considering that the city is at the junction of major transportation routes on both land and sea, emissions from all motor vehicles operating in the city and those that are in transit is the major source of pollution. The natural gas is used as the major heat source and the impact of other heating sources on the pollution episodes is not clearly known. During 19-29 December 2013 İstanbul metropolitan area experienced a severe PM10 episode with average episode concentration of 127µgm-3 . The episode was associated with a high pressure system with center pressure of 1030 mb residing over Balkans and north of Black Sea and thereby influencing Istanbul. We carried out simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) v3.5 to examine the meteorological conditions and to produce estimates of PM10 over Istanbul for 17-31 December 2013. The three nested domains was setup using 18, 6 and 2 km horizontal grid spacing with (90x90), (115x115) and (130x130) grid points in 1st, 2nd and 3rd domains, respectively. The each domain was run using one way nesting option after preparing the results from the mother domain as an input to subsequent inner domain. 34 vertical levels were used with the lowest layer depth of 15 m above the surface and extending to 15 km at the model top. The model was configured using the model options after many tests to find optimal model parameters and was initialized using global emissions data available publicly. The local emissions database is still in works and is not available to use in the model instead of global data. The estimated PM10 concentrations were compared against the observed conditions. This work shows the first attempt of using WRF-CHEM in Turkey to estimate the pollutant concentrations instead of using other air pollution models such as WRF/CMAQ combination. At the time of constructing this abstract, the model runs were still being conducted and the results will be discussed at the conference. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for the air quality data. This study is a background of the online integrated air quality and meteorology modeling project funding by the TUBITAK (Project No: 111Y319) and COST Action ES1004.

Interaction in Balanced Cross Nested Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Paulo; Mexia, João T.; Carvalho, Francisco; Covas, Ricardo

2011-09-01

Commutative Jordan Algebras, CJA, are used in the study of mixed models obtained, through crossing and nesting, from simpler ones. In the study of cross nested models the interaction between nested factors have been systematically discarded. However this can constitutes an artificial simplification of the models. We point out that, when two crossed factors interact, such interaction is symmetric, both factors playing in it equivalent roles, while when two nested factors interact, the interaction is determined by the nesting factor. These interactions will be called interactions with nesting. In this work we present a coherent formulation of the algebraic structure of models enabling the choice of families of interactions between cross and nested factors using binary operations on CJA.

Wave-current interaction: Effect on the wave field in a semi-enclosed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Bergamasco, A.

2013-10-01

The effect on waves of the Wave-Current Interaction (WCI) process in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Venice (northern region of the Adriatic Sea) was investigated using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. COAWST relies on the ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), the wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore), and the CSTMS (Community Sediment Transport Modeling System) routines. The two-way data transfer between circulation and wave models was synchronous via MCT (Model Coupling Toolkit), with ROMS providing: current field, free surface elevation, and bathymetry to SWAN. For coupling, the 3-D current profiles were averaged using a formulation which integrated the near-surface velocity over a depth controlled by the spectral mean wavenumber. COAWST system was implemented on a parent grid (with horizontal resolution of 2.0 km) covering the whole Adriatic Sea with one-way nesting to a child grid resolving the northern area (Gulf of Venice) at a resolution of 0.5 km. The meteorological forcings provided by the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7 (a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) were used to drive the modeling system in the period bracketing September 2010-August 2011. The adopted winds and the simulated waves were compared with observations at the CNR-ISMAR Acqua Alta oceanographic tower, located off the Venice littoral. Wave heights and sea surface winds were also compared with satellite-derived data. The analysis of WCI was performed on the child grid over the winter season (January-March 2011) with particular focus on the waves generated by prevailing and dominant winds blowing on the Adriatic Sea: Bora and Sirocco. Due to the variable wind direction with respect to the ocean current direction different effects on WCI were depicted, showing that within the northern Adriatic Sea the ocean-wave interactions are strongly dependent on the wind forcing direction. Further investigations reveal that, when applied to intense storms, the effect of coupling on waves results in variations of significant wave height up to 0.6 m, with some areas experiencing significant increase/decrease of wave spectral energy for opposite/following currents respectively.

Three-dimensional Simulations of the Mean Air Transport During the 1997 Forest Fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia Using a Mesoscale Numerical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roswintiarti, O.; Raman, S.

- This paper describes the meteorological processes responsible for the mean transport of air pollutants during the ENSO-related forest fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia from 00 UTC 21 September to 00 UTC 25 September, 1997. The Fifth Generation of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate three-dimensional winds at 6-hourly intervals. A nonhydrostatic version of the model is run using two nested grids with horizontal resolutions of 45 km and 15 km. From the simulated wind fields, the backward and forward trajectories of the air parcel are investigated using the Vis5D model.The results indicate that the large-scale subsidence over Indonesia, the southwest monsoon low-level flows (2-8 m s-1), and the shallow planetary boundary layer height (400-800 m) play a key role in the transport of air pollutants from Kalimantan to Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.

Air quality high resolution simulations of Italian urban areas with WRF-CHIMERE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Serena; Curci, Gabriele

2017-04-01

The new European Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (2008/50/EC) encourages the use of modeling techniques to support the observations in the assessment and forecasting of air quality. The modelling system based on the combination of the WRF meteorological model and the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is used to perform simulations at high resolution over the main Italian cities (e.g. Milan, Rome). Three domains covering Europe, Italy and the urban areas are nested with a decreasing grid size up to 1 km. Numerical results are produced for a winter month and a summer month of the year 2010 and are validated using ground-based observations (e.g. from the European air quality database AirBase). A sensitivity study is performed using different physics options, domain resolution and grid ratio; different urban parameterization schemes are tested using also characteristic morphology parameters for the cities considered. A spatial reallocation of anthropogenic emissions derived from international (e.g. EMEP, TNO, HTAP) and national (e.g. CTN-ACE) emissions inventories and based on the land cover datasets (Global Land Cover Facility and GlobCover) and the OpenStreetMap tool is also included. Preliminary results indicate that the introduction of the spatial redistribution at high-resolution allows a more realistic reproduction of the distribution of the emission flows and thus the concentrations of the pollutants, with significant advantages especially for the urban environments.

Supervised machine learning for analysing spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Márquez-Neila, Pablo; Fisher, Chloe; Sznitman, Raphael; Heng, Kevin

2018-06-01

The use of machine learning is becoming ubiquitous in astronomy1-3, but remains rare in the study of the atmospheres of exoplanets. Given the spectrum of an exoplanetary atmosphere, a multi-parameter space is swept through in real time to find the best-fit model4-6. Known as atmospheric retrieval, this technique originates in the Earth and planetary sciences7. Such methods are very time-consuming, and by necessity there is a compromise between physical and chemical realism and computational feasibility. Machine learning has previously been used to determine which molecules to include in the model, but the retrieval itself was still performed using standard methods8. Here, we report an adaptation of the `random forest' method of supervised machine learning9,10, trained on a precomputed grid of atmospheric models, which retrieves full posterior distributions of the abundances of molecules and the cloud opacity. The use of a precomputed grid allows a large part of the computational burden to be shifted offline. We demonstrate our technique on a transmission spectrum of the hot gas-giant exoplanet WASP-12b using a five-parameter model (temperature, a constant cloud opacity and the volume mixing ratios or relative abundances of molecules of water, ammonia and hydrogen cyanide)11. We obtain results consistent with the standard nested-sampling retrieval method. We also estimate the sensitivity of the measured spectrum to the model parameters, and we are able to quantify the information content of the spectrum. Our method can be straightforwardly applied using more sophisticated atmospheric models to interpret an ensemble of spectra without having to retrain the random forest.

Evaluation of WRF Parameterizations for Air Quality Applications over the Midwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z.; Fu, K.; Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; McFarland, D. M.; Rood, M. J.

2017-12-01

Reliable predictions from Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) for air quality research require accurate gridded weather inputs. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of 17 Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model runs was conducted to explore the optimum configuration in six physics categories (i.e., cumulus, surface layer, microphysics, land surface model, planetary boundary layer, and longwave/shortwave radiation) for the Midwest USA. WRF runs were initally conducted over four days in May 2011 for a 12 km x 12 km domain over contiguous USA and a nested 4 km x 4 km domain over the Midwest USA (i.e., Illinois and adjacent areas including Iowa, Indiana, and Missouri). Model outputs were evaluated statistically by comparison with meteorological observations (DS337.0, METAR data, and the Water and Atmospheric Resources Monitoring Network) and resulting statistics were compared to benchmark values from the literature. Identified optimum configurations of physics parametrizations were then evaluated for the whole months of May and October 2011 to evaluate WRF model performance for Midwestern spring and fall seasons. This study demonstrated that for the chosen physics options, WRF predicted well temperature (Index of Agreement (IOA) = 0.99), pressure (IOA = 0.99), relative humidity (IOA = 0.93), wind speed (IOA = 0.85), and wind direction (IOA = 0.97). However, WRF did not predict daily precipitation satisfactorily (IOA = 0.16). Developed gridded weather fields will be used as inputs to a CTM ensemble consisting of the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions to study impacts of chemical fertilizer usage on regional air quality in the Midwest USA.

The Diurnal Cycle in TOGA-COARE: Regional Scale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Jia, Y.

1999-01-01

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes over the tropics is a well-known phenomenon and has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation. Recently, analyzed observations from Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the tropical western Pacific ocean to study the relevant mechanisms producing diurnal variation of precipitation. They found that the diurnal Sea surface temperature (SST) cycle is important for afternoon showers in the undisturbed periods and diurnal radiative processes for nocturnal rainfall. Cloud resolving models (CRMS) have been used to determine the mechanisms associated with diurnal variation of precipitating processes. CRMs allow explicit cloud-radiation and air-sea interactive processes. However, CRMs can be only used for idealized simulations (i.e., no feedback between clouds and their embedded large-scale environments; cyclic lateral boundary conditions and idealized initial conditions). In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (covers the TOGA COARE LSA/IFA with a 54 km grid and can nest down to 18, 6 and possibly even 2 km) will be adopted for studying the diurnal variations of rainfall. We will examine precipitation processes over open ocean and over land. We will also perform sensitivity tests to determine how the radiative forcing and diurnal SST cycle affects the development of convection.

Towards a new multiscale air quality transport model using the fully unstructured anisotropic adaptive mesh technology of Fluidity (version 4.1.9)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, J.; Zhu, J.; Wang, Z.; Fang, F.; Pain, C. C.; Xiang, J.

2015-10-01

An integrated method of advanced anisotropic hr-adaptive mesh and discretization numerical techniques has been, for first time, applied to modelling of multiscale advection-diffusion problems, which is based on a discontinuous Galerkin/control volume discretization on unstructured meshes. Over existing air quality models typically based on static-structured grids using a locally nesting technique, the advantage of the anisotropic hr-adaptive model has the ability to adapt the mesh according to the evolving pollutant distribution and flow features. That is, the mesh resolution can be adjusted dynamically to simulate the pollutant transport process accurately and effectively. To illustrate the capability of the anisotropic adaptive unstructured mesh model, three benchmark numerical experiments have been set up for two-dimensional (2-D) advection phenomena. Comparisons have been made between the results obtained using uniform resolution meshes and anisotropic adaptive resolution meshes. Performance achieved in 3-D simulation of power plant plumes indicates that this new adaptive multiscale model has the potential to provide accurate air quality modelling solutions effectively.

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Lance; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Case, Jon

2012-01-01

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest-site characteristics: A simulation study.

PubMed

McConnell, Mark D; Monroe, Adrian P; Burger, Loren Wes; Martin, James A

2017-02-01

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest-site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest-site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest-site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest-site vegetation: Method 1-measuring at nest initiation, Method 2-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3-measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest-site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.

High resolution modelling and observation of wind-driven surface currents in a semi-enclosed estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, S.; Hartnett, M.; McKinstry, A.; Ragnoli, E.; Nagle, D.

2012-04-01

Hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Firstly, the wind data used in hydrodynamic models is usually measured on land and can be quite different in magnitude and direction from offshore winds. Secondly, surface winds are spatially-varying but due to a lack of data it is common practice to specify a non-varying wind speed and direction across the full extents of a model domain. These problems can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In the present research, a wind forecast model is coupled with a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of surface wind data resolution on model accuracy. High resolution and low resolution wind fields are specified to the model and the computed surface currents are compared with high resolution surface current measurements obtained from two high frequency SeaSonde-type Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radars (CODAR). The wind forecast models used for the research are Harmonie cy361.3, running on 2.5 and 0.5km spatial grids for the low resolution and high resolution models respectively. The low-resolution model runs over an Irish domain on 540x500 grid points with 60 vertical levels and a 60s timestep and is driven by ECMWF boundary conditions. The nested high-resolution model uses 300x300 grid points on 60 vertical levels and a 12s timestep. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) is used for the hydrodynamic model. The Galway Bay model has ten vertical layers and is resolved spatially and temporally at 150m and 4 sec respectively. The hydrodynamic model is run for selected hindcast dates when wind fields were highly energetic. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind data is provided by offline coupling with the wind forecast models. Modelled surface currents show good correlation with CODAR observed currents and the resolution of the surface wind data is shown to be important for model accuracy.

Examinations of Linkages Between the Northwest Mexican Monsoon and Great Plains Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleeby, S. M.; Cotton, W. R.

2001-12-01

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being used to examine linkages between the Mexican monsoon and precipitation in the Great Plains region of the United States. Currently, available datasets have allowed for seasonal runs for July and August of the 1993 flood year in the midwest US and the 1997 El Nino year. There is also a plan to perform a full monsoon season simulation of the drought summer of 1988 once precipitation data becomes available. Preliminary results of this ongoing study are presented here. The model configuration consists of a 120km resolution coarse grid that covers a region from west of Hawaii to Bermuda and from south of the equator up into Canada. Two 40km resolution nested grids exist, with one covering the western two-thirds of the United States and Mexico and the other covering the Pacific ITCZ. A 10km fine grid and 2.5km cloud resolving grid are spawned over the region of monsoon surges to explicitly resolve convection. The model is initialized with NCEP reanalysis data, surface obs, rawinsonde data, variable soil moisture, and weekly averaged SST's. RAMS is running with two-stream Harrington radiation, one moment microphysics, and Kuo cumulus parameterization. The completed 1993 and 1997 seasonal simulations are now being examined and verified again NCEP reanalysis data and high resolution precipitation data. Initial model results look promising when verified against the NCEP upper level fields, such that the model is able to capture the large scale dynamics. For the duration of both seasonal runs, RAMS successfully simulates the mid and upper level geopotential heights, the temperature, and winds. The large scale 700mb and 500mb anti-cyclone over the US and Mexico is resolved, as well as the easterly flow over Mexico. Model fields are also being examined to isolate monsoon surge events which are characterized by increased precipitation over the Sierra Madres and a northward moisture surge into the northern extent of the Gulf of California and southern Arizona. Within the coarse grids, the RAMS model has successfully resolved the low-level jet that persists in the Gulf of California and the local maximum in mixing ratio that persists over the gulf. It has also captured the upslope flow over the Sierra Madres that forces the moist air into the higher elevation to the east. This provides the necessary lifting and moisture for the development of intense convection and resulting large amounts of precipitation that occur along the Sierra Madre mountain range. Examination of model-predicted low-level moisture transport reveals that moisture advected from the Gulf of California is the primary monsoon moisture source, rather than the Gulf of Mexico. Time averages of moisture transport, mixing ratio, winds, and precipitation for July 1993 reveal the prominent diurnal cycle variations that exist due to radiative effects and land-sea interactions; the maximum in convection, precipitation rate, and moisture transport occurs around 00Z. Seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts in the model are successful in predicting the placement of precipitation and relative amounts for most of the 40km continental grid, but there is an overestimation of precipitation along the northern Sierra Madre Occidental and an underestimation in the US mid-west. During the 1993 flood summer, much of the mid-west US precipitation fell in association with mesoscale convective systems; it is suspected that other cumulus parameterizations may provide better prediction of sub-grid scale convective precipitation. >http://hugo.atmos.colostate.edu/www/monsoon/monsoon.html

From neurons to nests: nest-building behaviour as a model in behavioural and comparative neuroscience.

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

Despite centuries of observing the nest building of most extant bird species, we know surprisingly little about how birds build nests and, specifically, how the avian brain controls nest building. Here, we argue that nest building in birds may be a useful model behaviour in which to study how the brain controls behaviour. Specifically, we argue that nest building as a behavioural model provides a unique opportunity to study not only the mechanisms through which the brain controls behaviour within individuals of a single species but also how evolution may have shaped the brain to produce interspecific variation in nest-building behaviour. In this review, we outline the questions in both behavioural and comparative neuroscience that nest building could be used to address, summarize recent findings regarding the neurobiology of nest building in lab-reared zebra finches and across species building different nest structures, and suggest some future directions for the neurobiology of nest building.

Precipitation frequency analysis based on regional climate simulations in Central Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Hanrahan, Janel L.

2014-03-01

A Regional Climate Model (RCM), MM5 (the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model), is used to simulate summer precipitation in Central Alberta. MM5 was set up with a one-way, three-domain nested framework, with domain resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km, respectively, and forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The objective is to develop high resolution, grid-based Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves based on the simulated annual maximums of precipitation (AMP) data for durations ranging from 15-min to 24-h. The performance of MM5 was assessed in terms of simulated rainfall intensity, precipitable water, and 2-m air temperature. Next, the grid-based IDF curves derived from MM5 were compared to IDF curves derived from six RCMs of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) set up with 50-km grids, driven with NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) Reanalysis II data, and regional IDF curves derived from observed rain gauge data (RG-IDF). The analyzed results indicate that 6-h simulated precipitable water and 2-m temperature agree well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. However, compared to RG-IDF curves, IDF curves based on simulated precipitation data of MM5 are overestimated especially for IDF curves of 2-year return period. In contract, IDF curves developed from NARCCAP data suffer from under-estimation and differ more from RG-IDF curves than the MM5 IDF curves. The over-estimation of IDF curves of MM5 was corrected by a quantile-based, bias correction method. By dynamically downscale the ERA-Interim and after bias correction, it is possible to develop IDF curves useful for regions with limited or no rain gauge data. This estimation process can be further extended to predict future grid-based IDF curves subjected to possible climate change impacts based on climate change projections of GCMs (general circulation models) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

Preparing for Exascale: Towards convection-permitting, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinzeller, Dominikus; Duda, Michael G.; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

With strong financial and political support from national and international initiatives, exascale computing is projected for the end of this decade. Energy requirements and physical limitations imply the use of accelerators and the scaling out to orders of magnitudes larger numbers of cores then today to achieve this milestone. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of these Exascale computing systems, existing applications need to undergo significant development. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric core, an ocean core, a land-ice core and a sea-ice core. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. Here, we present work towards the application of the atmospheric core (MPAS-A) on current and future high performance computing systems for problems at extreme scale. In particular, we address the issue of massively parallel I/O by extending the model to support the highly scalable SIONlib library. Using global uniform meshes with a convection-permitting resolution of 2-3km, we demonstrate the ability of MPAS-A to scale out to half a million cores while maintaining a high parallel efficiency. We also demonstrate the potential benefit of a hybrid parallelisation of the code (MPI/OpenMP) on the latest generation of Intel's Many Integrated Core Architecture, the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing.

Evaluation of the WRF model for precipitation downscaling on orographic complex islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Juan P.; González, Albano; Expósito, Francisco; Pérez, Juan C.

2010-05-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have proven to be an effective tool to simulate many aspects of large-scale and global climate. However, their applicability to climate impact studies is limited by their capabilities to resolve regional scale situations. In this sense, dynamical downscaling techniques are an appropriate alternative to estimate high resolution regional climatologies. In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been used to simulate precipitations over the Canary Islands region during 2009. The precipitation patterns over Canary Islands, located at North Atlantic region, show large gradients over a relatively small geographical area due to large scale factors such as Trade Winds regime predominant in the area and mesoscale factors mainly due to the complex terrain. Sensitivity study of simulated WRF precipitations to variations in model setup and parameterizations was carried out. Thus, WRF experiments were performed using two way nesting at 3 km horizontal grid spacing and 28 vertical levels in the Canaries inner domain. The initial and lateral and lower boundary conditions for the outer domain were provided at 6 hourly intervals by NCEP FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0x1.0 degree resolution interpolated onto the WRF model grid. Numerous model options have been tested, including different microphysics schemes, cumulus parameterizations and nudging configuration Positive-definite moisture advection condition was also checked. Two integration approaches were analyzed: a 1-year continuous long-term integration and a consecutive short-term monthly reinitialized integration. To assess the accuracy of our simulations, model results are compared against observational datasets obtained from a network of meteorological stations in the region. In general, we can observe that the regional model is able to reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation, but overestimates rainfall, mainly during strong precipitation events.

CRYSTAL-FACE Analysis and Simulations of the July 23rd Extended Anvil Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David

2003-01-01

A key focus of CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) was the generation and subsequent evolution of cirrus outflow from deep convective cloud systems. Present theoretical background and motivations will be discussed. An integrated look at the observations of an extended cirrus anvil cloud system observed on 23 July 2002 will be presented, including lidar and millimeter radar observation; from NASA s ER-2 and in-situ observations from NASA s WB-57 and University of North Dakota Citation. The observations will be compared to results of simulations using 1-D and 2-D high-resolution (100 meter) cloud resolving models. The CRMs explicitly account for cirrus microphysical development by resolving the evolving ice crystal size distribution (bin model) in time and space. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation are allowed in the model. The CRM simulations are driven using the output of regional simulations using MM5 that produces deep convection similar to what was observed. The MM5 model employs a 2 km inner grid (32 layers) over a 360 km domain, nested within a 6-km grid over a 600-km domain. Initial and boundary conditions for the 36-hour MM5 simulation are taken from NCEP Eta model analysis at 32 km resolution. Key issues to be explored are the settling of the observed anvil versus the model simulations, and comparisons of dynamical properties, such as vertical motions, occurring in the observations and models. The former provides an integrated measure of the validity of the model microphysics (fallspeed) while the latter is the key factor in forcing continued ice generation.

The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

A SEMI-LAGRANGIAN TWO-LEVEL PRECONDITIONED NEWTON-KRYLOV SOLVER FOR CONSTRAINED DIFFEOMORPHIC IMAGE REGISTRATION.

PubMed

Mang, Andreas; Biros, George

2017-01-01

We propose an efficient numerical algorithm for the solution of diffeomorphic image registration problems. We use a variational formulation constrained by a partial differential equation (PDE), where the constraints are a scalar transport equation. We use a pseudospectral discretization in space and second-order accurate semi-Lagrangian time stepping scheme for the transport equations. We solve for a stationary velocity field using a preconditioned, globalized, matrix-free Newton-Krylov scheme. We propose and test a two-level Hessian preconditioner. We consider two strategies for inverting the preconditioner on the coarse grid: a nested preconditioned conjugate gradient method (exact solve) and a nested Chebyshev iterative method (inexact solve) with a fixed number of iterations. We test the performance of our solver in different synthetic and real-world two-dimensional application scenarios. We study grid convergence and computational efficiency of our new scheme. We compare the performance of our solver against our initial implementation that uses the same spatial discretization but a standard, explicit, second-order Runge-Kutta scheme for the numerical time integration of the transport equations and a single-level preconditioner. Our improved scheme delivers significant speedups over our original implementation. As a highlight, we observe a 20 × speedup for a two dimensional, real world multi-subject medical image registration problem.

Circulation and multiple-scale variability in the Southern California Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Changming; Idica, Eileen Y.; McWilliams, James C.

2009-09-01

The oceanic circulation in the Southern California Bight (SCB) is influenced by the large-scale California Current offshore, tropical remote forcing through the coastal wave guide alongshore, and local atmospheric forcing. The region is characterized by local complexity in the topography and coastline. All these factors engender variability in the circulation on interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal time scales. This study applies the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to the SCB circulation and its multiple-scale variability. The model is configured in three levels of nested grids with the parent grid covering the whole US West Coast. The first child grid covers a large southern domain, and the third grid zooms in on the SCB region. The three horizontal grid resolutions are 20 km, 6.7 km, and 1 km, respectively. The external forcings are momentum, heat, and freshwater flux at the surface and adaptive nudging to gyre-scale SODA reanalysis fields at the boundaries. The momentum flux is from a three-hourly reanalysis mesoscale MM5 wind with a 6 km resolution for the finest grid in the SCB. The oceanic model starts in an equilibrium state from a multiple-year cyclical climatology run, and then it is integrated from years 1996 through 2003. In this paper, the 8-year simulation at the 1 km resolution is analyzed and assessed against extensive observational data: High-Frequency (HF) radar data, current meters, Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) data, hydrographic measurements, tide gauges, drifters, altimeters, and radiometers. The simulation shows that the domain-scale surface circulation in the SCB is characterized by the Southern California Cyclonic Gyre, comprised of the offshore equatorward California Current System and the onshore poleward Southern California Countercurrent. The simulation also exhibits three subdomain-scale, persistent ( i.e., standing), cyclonic eddies related to the local topography and wind forcing: the Santa Barbara Channel Eddy, the Central-SCB Eddy, and the Catalina-Clemente Eddy. Comparisons with observational data reveal that ROMS reproduces a realistic mean state of the SCB oceanic circulation, as well as its interannual (mainly as a local manifestation of an ENSO event), seasonal, and intraseasonal (eddy-scale) variations. We find high correlations of the wind curl with both the alongshore pressure gradient (APG) and the eddy kinetic energy level in their variations on time scales of seasons and longer. The geostrophic currents are much stronger than the wind-driven Ekman flows at the surface. The model exhibits intrinsic eddy variability with strong topographically related heterogeneity, westward-propagating Rossby waves, and poleward-propagating coastally-trapped waves (albeit with smaller amplitude than observed due to missing high-frequency variations in the southern boundary conditions).

exprso: an R-package for the rapid implementation of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Quinn, Thomas; Tylee, Daniel; Glatt, Stephen

2016-01-01

Machine learning plays a major role in many scientific investigations. However, non-expert programmers may struggle to implement the elaborate pipelines necessary to build highly accurate and generalizable models. We introduce exprso , a new R package that is an intuitive machine learning suite designed specifically for non-expert programmers. Built initially for the classification of high-dimensional data, exprso uses an object-oriented framework to encapsulate a number of common analytical methods into a series of interchangeable modules. This includes modules for feature selection, classification, high-throughput parameter grid-searching, elaborate cross-validation schemes (e.g., Monte Carlo and nested cross-validation), ensemble classification, and prediction. In addition, exprso also supports multi-class classification (through the 1-vs-all generalization of binary classifiers) and the prediction of continuous outcomes.

An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

1999-01-01

Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herman, R.; O’Brien, S.

Using our own prototype sensor arrays that were deployed to collect microclimate data, we were able to visualize distinct differences in temperature, wind speed, and humidity over very small ranges of distance. We collected data across four polygons within the Barrow Environmental Observatory site. Our prototype microclimate arrays were based on an Arduino microcontroller, DS18B20 temperature sensors, DHT11 relative humidity/temperature sensors, and Vernier anemometers. Data were obtained in a small grid pattern with four sensors spaced 60 cm apart along the x-axis, and moved at 60 cm increments along a y-line across a polygon. Overlaying bird nest location with suchmore » data has allowed us to better answer our research question, “How do Arctic birds choose where to nest to maximize fitness in harsh Arctic environments?”« less

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Nested modeling approach to quantify sediment transport pathways and temporal variability of barrier island evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, J. W.; Dalyander, S.; Sherwood, C. R.; Thompson, D. M.; Plant, N. G.

2012-12-01

The Chandeleur Islands, situated off the coast of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, comprise a sand-starved barrier island system that has been disintegrating over the last decade. The persistent sediment transport in this area is predominantly directed alongshore but overwash and inundation during storm conditions has fragmented the island and reduced the subaerial extent by almost 75% since 2001. From 2010-2011 a sand berm was constructed along the Gulf side of the island adding 20 million cubic yards of sediment to this barrier island system. The redistribution of this sediment, particularly whether it remains in the active system and progrades the barrier island, has been evaluated using a series of numerical models and an extensive set of in situ and remote sensing observations. We have developed a coupled numerical modeling system capable of simulating morphologic evolution of the sand berm and barrier island using observations and predictions of regional and nearshore oceanographic processes. A nested approach provides large scale oceanographic information to force island evolution in a series of smaller grids, including two nearshore domains that are designed to simulate (1) the persistent alongshore sediment transport O(months-years) and (2) the overwash and breaching of the island/berm due to cross-shore forcing driven by winter cold fronts and tropical storms (O(hours-days)). The coupled model is evaluated using the observations of waves, water levels, currents, and topographic/morphologic change. Modeled processes are then used to identify the dominant sediment transport pathways and quantify the role of alongshore and cross-shore sediment transport in evolving the barrier island over a range of temporal scales.

Aerodynamic analysis for aircraft with nacelles, pylons, and winglets at transonic speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boppe, Charles W.

1987-01-01

A computational method has been developed to provide an analysis for complex realistic aircraft configurations at transonic speeds. Wing-fuselage configurations with various combinations of pods, pylons, nacelles, and winglets can be analyzed along with simpler shapes such as airfoils, isolated wings, and isolated bodies. The flexibility required for the treatment of such diverse geometries is obtained by using a multiple nested grid approach in the finite-difference relaxation scheme. Aircraft components (and their grid systems) can be added or removed as required. As a result, the computational method can be used in the same manner as a wind tunnel to study high-speed aerodynamic interference effects. The multiple grid approach also provides high boundary point density/cost ratio. High resolution pressure distributions can be obtained. Computed results are correlated with wind tunnel and flight data using four different transport configurations. Experimental/computational component interference effects are included for cases where data are available. The computer code used for these comparisons is described in the appendices.

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2015-01-01

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

2016-12-01

The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

PubMed

Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

2015-09-07

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics to Study Precipitation Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, W. K.

2017-12-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), and (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF). The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitation, processes and their sensitivity on model resolution and microphysics schemes will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator tqimproy precipitation processes will be discussed.

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei--Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2010-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale models can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving models through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model). (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, W8F). (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling systems to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2010-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hackney, Amanda D.; Baldwin, Robert F.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2013-01-01

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge, USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set (N = 67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.

Unstructured-grid coastal ocean modelling in Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Oddo, Paolo

2016-04-01

The Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System (SANIFS) is a short-term forecasting system based on unstructured grid approach. The model component is built on SHYFEM finite element three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The operational chain exploits a downscaling approach starting from the Mediterranean oceanographic-scale model MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting System, operated by INGV). The implementation set-up has been designed to provide accurate hydrodynamics and active tracer processes in the coastal waters of Southern Eastern Italy (Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria regions), where the model is characterized by a variable resolution in range of 50-500 m. The horizontal resolution is also high in open-sea areas, where the elements size is approximately 3 km. The model is forced: (i) at the lateral open boundaries through a full nesting strategy directly with the MFS (temperature, salinity, non-tidal sea surface height and currents) and OTPS (tidal forcing) fields; (ii) at surface through two alternative atmospheric forcing datasets (ECMWF and COSMOME) via MFS-bulk-formulae. Given that the coastal fields are driven by a combination of both local/coastal and deep ocean forcings propagating along the shelf, the performance of SANIFS was verified first (i) at the large and shelf-coastal scales by comparing with a large scale CTD survey and then (ii) at the coastal-harbour scale by comparison with CTD, ADCP and tide gauge data. Sensitivity tests were performed on initialization conditions (mainly focused on spin-up procedures) and on surface boundary conditions by assessing the reliability of two alternative datasets at different horizontal resolution (12.5 and 7 km). The present work highlights how downscaling could improve the simulation of the flow field going from typical open-ocean scales of the order of several km to the coastal (and harbour) scales of tens to hundreds of meters.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km2), although at a local scale (50 m2) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

Phenology of marine turtle nesting revealed by statistical model of the nesting season.

PubMed

Girondot, Marc; Rivalan, Philippe; Wongsopawiro, Ronald; Briane, Jean-Paul; Hulin, Vincent; Caut, Stéphane; Guirlet, Elodie; Godfrey, Matthew H

2006-08-31

Marine turtles deposit their eggs on tropical or subtropical beaches during discrete nesting seasons that span several months. The number and distribution of nests laid during a nesting season provide vital information on various aspects of marine turtle ecology and conservation. In the case of leatherback sea turtles nesting in French Guiana, we developed a mathematical model to explore the phenology of their nesting season, derived from an incomplete nest count dataset. We detected 3 primary components in the nest distribution of leatherbacks: an overall shape that corresponds to the arrival and departure of leatherback females in the Guianas region, a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 10 days that is related to physiological constraints of nesting female leatherbacks, and a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 15 days that likely reflects the influence of spring high tides on nesting female turtles. The model proposed here offers a variety of uses for both marine turtles and also other taxa when individuals are observed in a particular location for only part of the year.

High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2): Large Eddy Simulation Study Over Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dipankar, A.; Stevens, B. B.; Zängl, G.; Pondkule, M.; Brdar, S.

2014-12-01

The effect of clouds on large scale dynamics is represented in climate models through parameterization of various processes, of which the parameterization of shallow and deep convection are particularly uncertain. The atmospheric boundary layer, which controls the coupling to the surface, and which defines the scale of shallow convection, is typically 1 km in depth. Thus, simulations on a O(100 m) grid largely obviate the need for such parameterizations. By crossing this threshold of O(100m) grid resolution one can begin thinking of large-eddy simulation (LES), wherein the sub-grid scale parameterization have a sounder theoretical foundation. Substantial initiatives have been taken internationally to approach this threshold. For example, Miura et al., 2007 and Mirakawa et al., 2014 approach this threshold by doing global simulations, with (gradually) decreasing grid resolution, to understand the effect of cloud-resolving scales on the general circulation. Our strategy, on the other hand, is to take a big leap forward by fixing the resolution at O(100 m), and gradually increasing the domain size. We believe that breaking this threshold would greatly help in improving the parameterization schemes and reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions. To take this forward, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has initiated a project on HD(CP)2 that aims for a limited area LES at resolution O(100 m) using the new unified modeling system ICON (Zängl et al., 2014). In the talk, results from the HD(CP)2 evaluation simulation will be shown that targets high resolution simulation over a small domain around Jülich, Germany. This site is chosen because high resolution HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment took place in this region from 1.04.2013 to 31.05.2013, in order to critically evaluate the model. Nesting capabilities of ICON is used to gradually increase the resolution from the outermost domain, which is forced from the COSMO-DE data, to the innermost and finest resolution domain centered around Jülich (see Fig. 1 top panel). Furthermore, detailed analyses of the simulation results against the observation data will be presented. A reprsentative figure showing time series of column integrated water vapor (IWV) for both model and observation on 24.04.2013 is shown in bottom panel of Fig. 1.

PDF added value of a high resolution climate simulation for precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.

2015-04-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are models suitable to study the global atmospheric system, its evolution and response to changes in external forcing, namely to increasing emissions of CO2. However, the resolution of GCMs, of the order of 1o, is not sufficient to reproduce finer scale features of the atmospheric flow related to complex topography, coastal processes and boundary layer processes, and higher resolution models are needed to describe observed weather and climate. The latter are known as Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and are widely used to downscale GCMs results for many regions of the globe and are able to capture physically consistent regional and local circulations. Most of the RCMs evaluations rely on the comparison of its results with observations, either from weather stations networks or regular gridded datasets, revealing the ability of RCMs to describe local climatic properties, and assuming most of the times its higher performance in comparison with the forcing GCMs. The additional climatic details given by RCMs when compared with the results of the driving models is usually named as added value, and it's evaluation is still scarce and controversial in the literuature. Recently, some studies have proposed different methodologies to different applications and processes to characterize the added value of specific RCMs. A number of examples reveal that some RCMs do add value to GCMs in some properties or regions, and also the opposite, elighnening that RCMs may add value to GCM resuls, but improvements depend basically on the type of application, model setup, atmospheric property and location. The precipitation can be characterized by histograms of daily precipitation, or also known as probability density functions (PDFs). There are different strategies to evaluate the quality of both GCMs and RCMs in describing the precipitation PDFs when compared to observations. Here, we present a new method to measure the PDF added value obtained from dynamical downscaling, based on simple PDF skill scores. The measure can assess the full quality of the PDFs and at the same time integrates a flexible manner to weight differently the PDF tails. In this study we apply the referred method to characaterize the PDF added value of a high resolution simulation with the WRF model. Results from a WRF climate simulation centred at the Iberian Penisnula with two nested grids, a larger one at 27km and a smaller one at 9km. This simulation is forced by ERA-Interim. The observational data used covers from rain gauges precipitation records to observational regular grids of daily precipitation. Two regular gridded precipitation datasets are used. A Portuguese grid precipitation dataset developed at 0.2°× 0.2°, from observed rain gauges daily precipitation. A second one corresponding to the ENSEMBLES observational gridded dataset for Europe, which includes daily precipitation values at 0.25°. The analisys shows an important PDF added value from the higher resolution simulation, regarding the full PDF and the extremes. This method shows higher potential to be applied to other simulation exercises and to evaluate other variables.

The Impact of Ignoring the Level of Nesting Structure in Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jungkyu; Yu, Hsiu-Ting

2016-01-01

The multilevel latent class model (MLCM) is a multilevel extension of a latent class model (LCM) that is used to analyze nested structure data structure. The nonparametric version of an MLCM assumes a discrete latent variable at a higher-level nesting structure to account for the dependency among observations nested within a higher-level unit. In…

CASTRO: A NEW COMPRESSIBLE ASTROPHYSICAL SOLVER. II. GRAY RADIATION HYDRODYNAMICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, W.; Almgren, A.; Bell, J.

We describe the development of a flux-limited gray radiation solver for the compressible astrophysics code, CASTRO. CASTRO uses an Eulerian grid with block-structured adaptive mesh refinement based on a nested hierarchy of logically rectangular variable-sized grids with simultaneous refinement in both space and time. The gray radiation solver is based on a mixed-frame formulation of radiation hydrodynamics. In our approach, the system is split into two parts, one part that couples the radiation and fluid in a hyperbolic subsystem, and another parabolic part that evolves radiation diffusion and source-sink terms. The hyperbolic subsystem is solved explicitly with a high-order Godunovmore » scheme, whereas the parabolic part is solved implicitly with a first-order backward Euler method.« less

Scaling properties of observed and simulated satellite visible radiances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, Howard W.; Qu, Zhipeng; Bélair, Stéphane; Leroyer, Sylvie; Milbrandt, Jason A.; Vaillancourt, Paul A.

2017-09-01

Structure functions Sq, which are related to power spectra and used to study turbulence, were computed for GOES-13 visible radiances measured on 16 May 2015 over French Guiana and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The nested Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was run for the same time and area. Cloud data generated by GEM over (300 km)2 domains, with one-way nesting ending at horizontal grid-spacing of 0.25 km, were operated on by a 3-D solar radiative transfer model with resulting radiances degraded to GOES-13 resolution ( 1 km) and Sq computed for them, too. For GOES-13 radiances, scaling exponents ζ(2) associated with S2, for separation distances between 5 km and 25 km, were typically >0.6 for deep convective and marine boundary layer clouds and <0.4 for shallow cumuli over land. ζ(2) for GEM agreed well with GOES-13 for deep convective clouds. This suggests that the self-organizing properties of deep convection in GEM exhibit realistic geometric features, a potentially important point given the link between cloud structure and precipitation, with the latter being much more difficult to measure and assess than visible radiances. Regarding radiances for GEM's marine boundary layer clouds, their Sq differed markedly from GOES-13's; better resembling fair-weather cumulus. Likewise, GEM's shallow cumuli over land appear to have bypassed the "scattered" fair-weather stage and went straight into more organized convection. Thus, it appears that comparing time series of Sq for geostationary satellite data and corresponding modeled radiances has the potential to benefit assessment of cloud system-resolving models.

Meteorological predictions for Mars 2020 Exploration Rover high-priority landing sites throug MRAMS Mesoscale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pla-García, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot C. R.

2015-04-01

The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 Exploration Rover at several proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing (EDL). The meteorology during the EDL window at most of the sites is dynamic. The intense heating of the lower atmosphere drives intense thermals and mesoscale thermal circulations. Moderate mean winds, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical air currents associated with convection are present and potentially hazardous to EDL [1]. Nine areas with specific high-priority landing ellipses of the 2020 Rover, are investigated: NE Syrtis, Nili Fossae, Nili Fossae Carbonates, Jezero Crater Delta, Holden Crater, McLaughlin Crater, Southwest Melas Basin, Mawrth Vallis and East Margaritifer Chloride. MRAMS was applied to the landing site regions using nested grids with a spacing of 330 meters on the innermost grid that is centered over each landing site. MRAMS is ideally suited for this investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simulate Mars' atmospheric thermal circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface properties [2, 3]. Horizontal wind speeds, both vertical profiles and vertical cross-sections wind speeds, are studied. For some landing sites simulations, two example configurations -including and not including Hellas basin in the mother domain- were generated, in order to study how the basin affects the innermost grids circulations. Afternoon circulations at all sites pose some risk entry, descent, and landing. Most of the atmospheric hazards are not evident in current observational data and general circulation model simulations and can only be ascertained through mesoscale modeling of the region. Decide where to go first and then design a system that can tolerate the environment would greatly minimize risk. References: [1] Rafkin, S. C. R., and T. I. Michaels (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12), 8091. [2] Rafkin, S. C. R., R. M. Haberle, and T. I. Michaels (2001), Icarus, 151, 228-256.
[3] Rafkin, S. C. R., M. R. V. Sta. Maria, and T. I. Michaels (2002), Nature, 419, 697-699.

Automated classifications of topography from DEMs by an unsupervised nested-means algorithm and a three-part geometric signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwahashi, Junko; Pike, Richard J.

2007-05-01

An iterative procedure that implements the classification of continuous topography as a problem in digital image-processing automatically divides an area into categories of surface form; three taxonomic criteria-slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture-are calculated from a square-grid digital elevation model (DEM). The sequence of programmed operations combines twofold-partitioned maps of the three variables converted to greyscale images, using the mean of each variable as the dividing threshold. To subdivide increasingly subtle topography, grid cells sloping at less than mean gradient of the input DEM are classified by designating mean values of successively lower-sloping subsets of the study area (nested means) as taxonomic thresholds, thereby increasing the number of output categories from the minimum 8 to 12 or 16. Program output is exemplified by 16 topographic types for the world at 1-km spatial resolution (SRTM30 data), the Japanese Islands at 270 m, and part of Hokkaido at 55 m. Because the procedure is unsupervised and reflects frequency distributions of the input variables rather than pre-set criteria, the resulting classes are undefined and must be calibrated empirically by subsequent analysis. Maps of the example classifications reflect physiographic regions, geological structure, and landform as well as slope materials and processes; fine-textured terrain categories tend to correlate with erosional topography or older surfaces, coarse-textured classes with areas of little dissection. In Japan the resulting classes approximate landform types mapped from airphoto analysis, while in the Americas they create map patterns resembling Hammond's terrain types or surface-form classes; SRTM30 output for the United States compares favorably with Fenneman's physical divisions. Experiments are suggested for further developing the method; the Arc/Info AML and the map of terrain classes for the world are available as online downloads.

Automated classifications of topography from DEMs by an unsupervised nested-means algorithm and a three-part geometric signature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iwahashi, J.; Pike, R.J.

2007-01-01

An iterative procedure that implements the classification of continuous topography as a problem in digital image-processing automatically divides an area into categories of surface form; three taxonomic criteria-slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture-are calculated from a square-grid digital elevation model (DEM). The sequence of programmed operations combines twofold-partitioned maps of the three variables converted to greyscale images, using the mean of each variable as the dividing threshold. To subdivide increasingly subtle topography, grid cells sloping at less than mean gradient of the input DEM are classified by designating mean values of successively lower-sloping subsets of the study area (nested means) as taxonomic thresholds, thereby increasing the number of output categories from the minimum 8 to 12 or 16. Program output is exemplified by 16 topographic types for the world at 1-km spatial resolution (SRTM30 data), the Japanese Islands at 270??m, and part of Hokkaido at 55??m. Because the procedure is unsupervised and reflects frequency distributions of the input variables rather than pre-set criteria, the resulting classes are undefined and must be calibrated empirically by subsequent analysis. Maps of the example classifications reflect physiographic regions, geological structure, and landform as well as slope materials and processes; fine-textured terrain categories tend to correlate with erosional topography or older surfaces, coarse-textured classes with areas of little dissection. In Japan the resulting classes approximate landform types mapped from airphoto analysis, while in the Americas they create map patterns resembling Hammond's terrain types or surface-form classes; SRTM30 output for the United States compares favorably with Fenneman's physical divisions. Experiments are suggested for further developing the method; the Arc/Info AML and the map of terrain classes for the world are available as online downloads. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of GOES satellite-based convective initiation and cloud growth observations into the Rapid Refresh and HRRR systems to improve aviation forecast guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecikalski, John; Smith, Tracy; Weygandt, Stephen

2014-05-01

Latent heating profiles derived from GOES satellite-based cloud-top cooling rates are being assimilated into a retrospective version of the Rapid Refresh system (RAP) being run at the Global Systems Division. Assimilation of these data may help reduce the time lag for convection initiation (CI) in both the RAP model forecasts and in 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model runs that are initialized off of the RAP model grids. These data may also improve both the location and organization of developing convective storm clusters, especially in the nested HRRR runs. These types of improvements are critical for providing better convective storm guidance around busy hub airports and aviation corridor routes, especially in the highly congested Ohio Valley - Northeast - Mid-Atlantic region. Additional work is focusing on assimilating GOES-R CI algorithm cloud-top cooling-based latent heating profiles directly into the HRRR model. Because of the small-scale nature of the convective phenomena depicted in the cloud-top cooling rate data (on the order of 1-4 km scale), direct assimilation of these data in the HRRR may be more effective than assimilation in the RAP. The RAP is an hourly assimilation system developed at NOAA/ESRL and was implemented at NCEP as a NOAA operational model in May 2012. The 3-km HRRR runs hourly out to 15 hours as a nest within the ESRL real-time experimental RAP. The RAP and HRRR both use the WRF ARW model core, and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used within an hourly cycle to assimilate a wide variety of observations (including radar data) to initialize the RAP. Within this modeling framework, the cloud-top cooling rate-based latent heating profiles are applied as prescribed heating during the diabatic forward model integration part of the RAP digital filter initialization (DFI). No digital filtering is applied on the 3-km HRRR grid, but similar forward model integration with prescribed heating is used to assimilate information from radar reflectivity, lightning flash density and the satellite based cloud-top cooling rate data. In the current HRRR configuration, 4 15-min cycles of latent heating are applied during a pre-forecast hour of integration. This is followed by a final application of GSI at 3-km to fit the latest conventional observation data. At the conference, results from a 5-day retrospective period (July 5-10, 2012) will be shown, focusing on assessment of data impact for both the RAP and HRRR, as well as the sensitivity to various assimilation parameters, including assumed heating strength. Emphasis will be given to documenting the forecast impacts for aviation applications in the Eastern U.S.

Immersed Boundary Methods for High-Resolution Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Flow Over Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lundquist, K A

Mesoscale models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are increasingly used for high resolution simulations, particularly in complex terrain, but errors associated with terrain-following coordinates degrade the accuracy of the solution. Use of an alternative Cartesian gridding technique, known as an immersed boundary method (IBM), alleviates coordinate transformation errors and eliminates restrictions on terrain slope which currently limit mesoscale models to slowly varying terrain. In this dissertation, an immersed boundary method is developed for use in numerical weather prediction. Use of the method facilitates explicit resolution of complex terrain, even urban terrain, in the WRF mesoscale model.more » First, the errors that arise in the WRF model when complex terrain is present are presented. This is accomplished using a scalar advection test case, and comparing the numerical solution to the analytical solution. Results are presented for different orders of advection schemes, grid resolutions and aspect ratios, as well as various degrees of terrain slope. For comparison, results from the same simulation are presented using the IBM. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional immersed boundary methods are then described, along with details that are specific to the implementation of IBM in the WRF code. Our IBM is capable of imposing both Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. Additionally, a method for coupling atmospheric physics parameterizations at the immersed boundary is presented, making IB methods much more functional in the context of numerical weather prediction models. The two-dimensional IB method is verified through comparisons of solutions for gentle terrain slopes when using IBM and terrain-following grids. The canonical case of flow over a Witch of Agnesi hill provides validation of the basic no-slip and zero gradient boundary conditions. Specified diurnal heating in a valley, producing anabatic winds, is used to validate the use of flux (non-zero) boundary conditions. This anabatic flow set-up is further coupled to atmospheric physics parameterizations, which calculate surface fluxes, demonstrating that the IBM can be coupled to various land-surface parameterizations in atmospheric models. Additionally, the IB method is extended to three dimensions, using both trilinear and inverse distance weighted interpolations. Results are presented for geostrophic flow over a three-dimensional hill. It is found that while the IB method using trilinear interpolation works well for simple three-dimensional geometries, a more flexible and robust method is needed for extremely complex geometries, as found in three-dimensional urban environments. A second, more flexible, immersed boundary method is devised using inverse distance weighting, and results are compared to the first IBM approach. Additionally, the functionality to nest a domain with resolved complex geometry inside of a parent domain without resolved complex geometry is described. The new IBM approach is used to model urban terrain from Oklahoma City in a one-way nested configuration, where lateral boundary conditions are provided by the parent domain. Finally, the IB method is extended to include wall model parameterizations for rough surfaces. Two possible implementations are presented, one which uses the log law to reconstruct velocities exterior to the solid domain, and one which reconstructs shear stress at the immersed boundary, rather than velocity. These methods are tested on the three-dimensional canonical case of neutral atmospheric boundary layer flow over flat terrain.« less

Nest construction by a ground-nesting bird represents a potential trade-off between egg crypticity and thermoregulation.

PubMed

Mayer, Paul M; Smith, Levica M; Ford, Robert G; Watterson, Dustin C; McCutchen, Marshall D; Ryan, Mark R

2009-04-01

Predation selects against conspicuous colors in bird eggs and nests, while thermoregulatory constraints select for nest-building behavior that regulates incubation temperatures. We present results that suggest a trade-off between nest crypticity and thermoregulation of eggs based on selection of nest materials by piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a ground-nesting bird that constructs simple, pebble-lined nests highly vulnerable to predators and exposed to temperature extremes. Piping plovers selected pebbles that were whiter and appeared closer in color to eggs than randomly available pebbles, suggesting a crypsis function. However, nests that were more contrasting in color to surrounding substrates were at greater risk of predation, suggesting an alternate strategy driving selection of white rocks. Near-infrared reflectance of nest pebbles was higher than randomly available pebbles, indicating a direct physical mechanism for heat control through pebble selection. Artificial nests constructed of randomly available pebbles heated more quickly and conferred heat to model eggs, causing eggs to heat more rapidly than in nests constructed from piping plover nest pebbles. Thermal models and field data indicated that temperatures inside nests may remain up to 2-6 degrees C cooler than surrounding substrates. Thermal models indicated that nests heat especially rapidly if not incubated, suggesting that nest construction behavior may serve to keep eggs cooler during the unattended laying period. Thus, pebble selection suggests a potential trade-off between maximizing heat reflectance to improve egg microclimate and minimizing conspicuous contrast of nests with the surrounding substrate to conceal eggs from predators. Nest construction behavior that employs light-colored, thermally reflective materials may represent an evolutionary response by birds and other egg-laying organisms to egg predation and heat stress.

Nested high resolution models for the coastal areas of the North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Fred; Shapiro, Georgy

2017-04-01

Oceanographic processes at coastal scales require much higher horizontal resolution from both ocean models and observations as compared to deep water oceanography. Aside from a few exceptions such as land-locked seas, the hydrodynamics of coastal shallow waters is strongly influenced by the tides, which in turn control the mixing, formation of temperature fronts and other phenomena. The numerical modelling of the coastal domains requires good knowledge of the lateral boundary conditions. The application of lateral boundary conditions to ocean models is a notoriously tricky task, but can only be avoided with global ocean models. Smaller scale regional ocean models are typically nested within global models, and even smaller-scale coastal models may be nested within regional models, creating a nesting chain. However a direct nesting of a very high resolution coastal model into a coarse resolution global model results in degrading of the accuracy of the outputs due to the large difference between the model resolutions. This is why a nesting chain has to be applied, so that every increase in resolution is kept within a reasonable minimum (typically by a factor of 3 to 5 at each step). Global models are traditionally non-tidal, so at some stage of the nesting chain the tides need to be introduced. This is typically done by calculating the tidal constituents from a dedicated tidal model (e.g. TPXO) for all boundary points of a nested model. The tidal elevation at each boundary location can then be calculated from the harmonics at every model time step and the added to the parent model non-tidal SSH. This combination of harmonics-derived tidal SSH and non-tidal parent model SSH is typically applied to the nested domain using the Flather condition, together with the baroclinic velocities from the parent model. The harmonics-derived SSH cannot be added to an SSH signal that is already tidal, so the parent model SSH has to be either detided or taken from a non-tidal model. Due to the lack of effective detiding methods and the prevailing view that harmonics-derived SSH provide a cleaner tidal signal over the SSH taken from a tidal parent model it has traditionally only been the last model in a nesting chain that is tidal. But to our knowledge these assumptions haven't been sufficiently tested and need to be re-visited. Furthermore, the lack of tides in the larger-scale regional models limits their capability and we would like to push for a nesting chain where all regional models (including the intermediate ones) are tidal. In this study we have conducted a number of numerical experiments where we have tested whether a tidal regional model can effectively force a tidal nested model without resorting to detiding techniques and the use of a dedicated tidal model such as TPXO. We have tested whether it's possible to use a tidal parent model and use the total SSH (combined geostrophic SSH and tidal component) to force the child model at the boundary. We call this strategy "tidal nesting" as opposed to TPXO tidal forcing which is used in "traditional nesting". For our experiments we have developed 2 models based on the same NEMO 3.6 codebase. The medium resolution AS20 model covers the Arabian Sea at 1/20 ̊ with 50 layers using a hybrid s-on-top-of-z vertical discretisation scheme (Shapiro et al., 2013); and the high resolution AG60 model covers the Arabian/Persian Gulf at 1/60 ̊ with 50 layers. The AS20 model is "traditionally" nested within the UK Met Office non-tidal large-scale Indian Ocean model at 1/12 ̊ resolution and tidal constituents at the boundary are taken from the TPXO7.2 Global Tidal Solution. Our "tidal nesting" experiments use different forcing frequencies at which the tidal SSH is fed from the larger-scale AS20 into the smaller-scale AG60 model. These strategies are compared with "traditional nesting" where the inner AG60 uses boundary conditions from a non-tidal AS20 parent model and tides are computed from TPXO harmonics. The results reveal an optimal tidal nesting strategy which forces tidal SSH from the parent model at 1-hourly intervals whilst non-tidal parameters are forced at 24-hourly intervals. The analysis includes comparisons with tidal gauges in the Gulf of Oman and inside the Arabian Gulf. The accuracy of tides inside the Gulf is inhibited by the narrow Straits of Hormuz, and tidal nesting doesn't achieve the same level of agreement with observation as traditional nesting. We also found that a further increase in the SSH forcing frequency to 30 minutes does not further improve the results. The forcing at intervals of 1h/24h for tidal/non-tidal parameters shows that a 2-step tidal nesting chain is viable and thus tides can be represented in more than just the last model of a nesting chain. References: Shapiro, G., Luneva, M., Pickering, J., and Storkey, D.: The effect of various vertical discretization schemes and horizontal diffusion parameterization on the performance of a 3-D ocean model: the Black Sea case study, Ocean Sci., 9, 377-390, doi:10.5194/os-9-377-2013, 2013.

Habitat patch size and nesting success of yellow-breasted chats

Treesearch

Dick E. Burhans; Frank R. Thompson III

1999-01-01

We measured vegetation at shrub patches used for nesting by Yellow-breasted Chats (Icteria virens) to evaluate the importance of nesting habitat patch features on nest predation, cowbird parasitism, and nest site selection. Logistic regression models indicated that nests in small patches (average diameter

Factor determining prochard nest predation along a wetland gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albrecht, T.; Horak, D.; Kreisinger, J.; Weidinger, K.; Klvana, P.; Michot, T.C.

2006-01-01

Waterfowl management on breeding grounds focuses on improving nest success, but few studies have compared waterfowl nest success and factors affecting nest survival along a wetland gradient and simultaneously identified nest predators. We monitored nests (n = 195) of common pochards (Aythya ferina) in Trebon Basin Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic, during 1999-2002. Daily nest survival rates (DSRs, logistic-exposure) declined from island (0.985, 95% confidence interval, 0.978-0.991) to overwater (0.962, 0.950-0.971) and terrestrial (0.844, 0.759-0.904) nests. The most parsimonious model for DSRs included habitat class (DSRs: island > overwater > terrestrial) and nest visibility. Nest survival was improved by reduced nest visibility, increased water depth, and increased distance from the nest to habitat edge in littoral habitats. On islands, nest success increased with advancing date and increased distance to open water. A model of constant nest survival best explained the data for terrestrial nests. There were no observer effects on DSRs in any habitat. In 2003, artificial nests (n = 180; 120 contained a wax-filled egg) were deployed on study plots. The model that best explained variation in DSRs for artificial nests included only 1 variable: habitat class (DSRs: island ??? overwater > terrestrial). Mammalian predation of artificial nests (by foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and martens [Martes spp.]) was more likely in terrestrial habitats than in littoral habitats or on islands. By contrast, corvids and marsh harriers (Circus aeruginosus) prevailed among predators of overwater and island nests. Our data indicate that artificial islands and wide strips of littoral vegetation may represent secure breeding habitats for waterfowl because those habitats allow nests to be placed in areas that are not accessible to, or that are avoided by, mammalian predators. Management actions should be aimed at preserving these habitats. This, along with creation of new artificial islands, could help to enhance breeding productivity of pochards and possibly other waterfowl species inhabiting man-made ponds.

Habitat suitability and nest survival of white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forests of Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollenbeck, Jeff P.; Saab, Victoria A.; Frenzel, Richard W.

2011-01-01

We evaluated habitat suitability and nest survival of breeding white-headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolarvatus) in unburned forests of central Oregon, USA. Daily nest-survival rate was positively related to maximum daily temperature during the nest interval and to density of large-diameter trees surrounding the nest tree. We developed a niche-based habitat suitability model (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) for nesting white-headed woodpeckers using remotely sensed data. Along with low elevation, high density of large trees, and low slope, our habitat suitability model suggested that interspersion–juxtaposition of low- and high-canopy cover ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) patches was important for nest-site suitability. Cross-validation suggested the model performed adequately for management planning at a scale >1 ha. Evaluation of mapped habitat suitability index (HSI) suggested that the maximum predictive gain (HSI = 0.36), where the number of nest locations are maximized in the smallest proportion of the modeled landscape, provided an objective initial threshold for identification of suitable habitat. However, managers can choose the threshold HSI most appropriate for their purposes (e.g., locating regions of low–moderate suitability that have potential for habitat restoration). Consequently, our habitat suitability model may be useful for managing dry coniferous forests for white-headed woodpeckers in central Oregon; however, model validation is necessary before our model could be applied to other locations.

The Role of Discrete Global Grid Systems in the Global Statistical Geospatial Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purss, M. B. J.; Peterson, P.; Minchin, S. A.; Bermudez, L. E.

2016-12-01

The United Nations Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (UN-GGIM) has proposed the development of a Global Statistical Geospatial Framework (GSGF) as a mechanism for the establishment of common analytical systems that enable the integration of statistical and geospatial information. Conventional coordinate reference systems address the globe with a continuous field of points suitable for repeatable navigation and analytical geometry. While this continuous field is represented on a computer in a digitized and discrete fashion by tuples of fixed-precision floating point values, it is a non-trivial exercise to relate point observations spatially referenced in this way to areal coverages on the surface of the Earth. The GSGF states the need to move to gridded data delivery and the importance of using common geographies and geocoding. The challenges associated with meeting these goals are not new and there has been a significant effort within the geospatial community to develop nested gridding standards to tackle these issues over many years. These efforts have recently culminated in the development of a Discrete Global Grid Systems (DGGS) standard which has been developed under the auspices of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). DGGS provide a fixed areal based geospatial reference frame for the persistent location of measured Earth observations, feature interpretations, and modelled predictions. DGGS address the entire planet by partitioning it into a discrete hierarchical tessellation of progressively finer resolution cells, which are referenced by a unique index that facilitates rapid computation, query and analysis. The geometry and location of the cell is the principle aspect of a DGGS. Data integration, decomposition, and aggregation is optimised in the DGGS hierarchical structure and can be exploited for efficient multi-source data processing, storage, discovery, transmission, visualization, computation, analysis, and modelling. During the 6th Session of the UN-GGIM in August 2016 the role of DGGS in the context of the GSGF was formally acknowledged. This paper proposes to highlight the synergies and role of DGGS in the Global Statistical Geospatial Framework and to show examples of the use of DGGS to combine geospatial statistics with traditional geoscientific data.

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Andersen, David E.

2011-01-01

Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7–20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 ± 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 ± 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts (≤6 years since harvest; 0.927 ± 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2–39% (x¯ = 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

Testing models of female reproductive migratory behaviour and population structure in the Caribbean hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata, with mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Bass, A L; Good, D A; Bjorndal, K A; Richardson, J I; Hillis, Z M; Horrocks, J A; Bowen, B W

1996-06-01

Information on the reproductive behaviour and population structure of female hawksbill turtles, Eretmochelys imbricata, is necessary to define conservation priorities for this highly endangered species. Two hypotheses to explain female nest site choice, natal homing and social facilitation, were tested by analyzing mtDNA control region sequences of 103 individuals from seven nesting colonies in the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Under the social facilitation model, newly mature females follow older females to a nesting location, and subsequently use this site for future nesting. This model generates an expectation that female lineages will be homogenized among regional nesting colonies. Contrary to expectations of the social facilitation model, mtDNA lineages were highly structured among western Atlantic nesting colonies. These analyses identified at least 6 female breeding stocks in the Caribbean and western Atlantic and support a natal homing model for recruitment of breeding females. Reproductive populations are effectively isolated over ecological time scales, and recovery plans for this species should include protection at the level of individual nesting colonies.

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Terhune, Theron M.; Wood, Petra Bohall; Buehler, David A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Confer,  John L.; Flaspohler, David J.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Loegering, John P.; Percy, Katie L.; Roth, Amber M.; Smalling, Curtis G.

2015-01-01

Among shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Air quality modelling over the Eastern Mediterranean using the WRF/Chem model: Comparison of gas-phase chemistry and aerosol mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, George K.; Christoudias, Theodoros; Proestos, Yiannis; Kushta, Jonilda; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

A comprehensive analysis of the performance of three coupled gas-phase chemistry and aerosol mechanisms included in the WRF/Chem model has been performed over the Eastern Mediterranean focusing on Cyprus during the CYPHEX campaign in 2014, using high temporal and spatial resolution. The model performance was evaluated by comparing calculations to measurements of gas phase species (O3, CO, NOx, SO2) and aerosols (PM10, PM2.5) from 13 ground stations. Initial results indicate that the calculated day-to-day and diurnal variations of the aforementioned species show good agreement with observations. The model was set up with three nested grids, downscaling to 4km over Cyprus. The meteorological boundary conditions were updated every 3 hours throughout the simulation using the Global Forecast System (GFS), while chemical boundary conditions were updated every 6 hours using the MOZART global chemical transport model. Biogenic emissions were calculated online by the the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1). Anthropogenic emissions were based on the EDGAR HTAP v2 global emission inventory, provided on a horizontal grid resolution of 0.1o × 0.1o. Three simulations were performed employing different chemistry and aerosol mechanisms; i) RADM2 chemical mechanism and MADE/SORGAM aerosols, ii) CBMZ chemical mechanism and MOSAIC aerosols, iii) MOZART chemical mechanism and MOSAIC aerosols. Results show that the WRF/Chem model satisfactorily estimates the trace gases relative concentrations at the background sites but not at the urban and traffic sites, while some differences appear between the simulated concentrations by the three mechanisms. The resulting discrepancies between the model outcome and measurements, especially at the urban and traffic sites, suggest that a higher resolution anthropogenic emission inventory might help improve fine resolution, regional air quality modelling. Differences in the simulated concentrations by the three chemical mechanisms are attributed to the different chemical species and reaction rate constants used.

Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragin, Evgeny A.; Bragin, Alexander E.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily managed landscapes where populations are at greater risk, or for the many other species of rare or endangered birds supported by nest box programs, these processes could have important demographic and conservation consequences.

BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

2010-12-01

BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations of both climate and ecosystems must be done at coarse grid resolutions; smaller domains require higher resolution for the simulation of natural resource processes at the landscape scale and that of on-the-ground management practices. Via a combined multi-agency and private conservation effort we have implemented a Nested Scale Experiment (NeScE) that ranges from 1/2 degree resolution (global, ca. 50 km) to ca. 8km (North America) and 800 m (conterminous U.S.). Our first DGVM, MC1, has been implemented at all 3 scales. We are just beginning to implement BIOMAP into NeScE, with its unique features, and daily time step, as a counterpoint to MC1. We believe it will be more accurate at all resolutions providing better simulations of vegetation distribution, carbon balance, runoff, fire regimes and drought impacts.

Nest survival of American Coots relative to grazing, burning, and water depths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Jane E.; Buhl, Deborah A.

2011-01-01

Water and emergent vegetation are key features influencing nest site selection and success for many marsh-nesting waterbirds. Wetland management practices such as grazing, burning, and water-level manipulations directly affect these features and can influence nest survival. We used model selection and before-after-control-impact approaches to evaluate the effects of water depth and four common land-management practices or treatments, i.e., summer grazing, fall grazing, fall burning, and idle (no active treatment) on nest survival of American coots (Fulica americana) nesting at Grays Lake, a large montane wetland in southeast Idaho. The best model included the variables year × treatment, and quadratic functions of date, water depth, and nest age; height of vegetation at the nest did not improve the best model. However, results from the before-after-control-impact analysis indicate that management practices affected nest success via vegetation and involved interactions of hydrology, residual vegetation, and habitat composition. Nest success in idled fields changed little between pre- and post-treatment periods, whereas nest success declined in fields that were grazed or burned, with the most dramatic declines the year following treatments. The importance of water depth may be amplified in this wetland system because of rapid water-level withdrawal during the nesting season. Water and land-use values for area ranchers, management for nesting waterbirds, and long-term wetland function are important considerations in management of water levels and vegetation.

Estimating raptor nesting success: old and new approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Jessi L.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Bond, Laura

2013-01-01

Studies of nesting success can be valuable in assessing the status of raptor populations, but differing monitoring protocols can present unique challenges when comparing populations of different species across time or geographic areas. We used large datasets from long-term studies of 3 raptor species to compare estimates of apparent nest success (ANS, the ratio of successful to total number of nesting attempts), Mayfield nesting success, and the logistic-exposure model of nest survival. Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus), and American kestrels (F. sparverius) differ in their breeding biology and the methods often used to monitor their reproduction. Mayfield and logistic-exposure models generated similar estimates of nesting success with similar levels of precision. Apparent nest success overestimated nesting success and was particularly sensitive to inclusion of nesting attempts discovered late in the nesting season. Thus, the ANS estimator is inappropriate when exact point estimates are required, especially when most raptor pairs cannot be located before or soon after laying eggs. However, ANS may be sufficient to assess long-term trends of species in which nesting attempts are highly detectable.

A genetic test of the natal homing versus social facilitation models for green turtle migration.

PubMed

Meylan, A B; Bowen, B W; Avise, J C

1990-05-11

Female green turtles exhibit strong nest-site fidelity as adults, but whether the nesting beach is the natal site is not known. Under the natal homing hypothesis, females return to their natal beach to nest, whereas under the social facilitation model, virgin females follow experienced breeders to nesting beaches and after a "favorable" nesting experience, fix on that site for future nestings. Differences shown in mitochondrial DNA genotype frequency among green turtle colonies in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are consistent with natal homing expectations and indicate that social facilitation to nonnatal sites is rare.

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

Improvements and Lingering Challenges with Modeling Low-Level Winds Over Complex Terrain during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Brown, J. M.; Angevine, W. M.; Marquis, M.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Choukulkar, A.; Bonin, T.; Banta, R. M.; Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I.; McCaffrey, K.; Wilczak, J. M.; Lantz, K. O.; Long, C. N.; Redfern, S.; McCaa, J. R.; Stoelinga, M.; Grimit, E.; Cline, J.; Shaw, W. J.; Lundquist, J. K.; Lundquist, K. A.; Kosovic, B.; Berg, L. K.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Sharp, J.; Jiménez, P.

2017-12-01

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are NOAA real-time operational hourly updating forecast systems run at 13- and 3-km grid spacing, respectively. Both systems use the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) as the model component of the forecast system. During the second installment of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), the RAP/HRRR have been targeted for the improvement of low-level wind forecasts in the complex terrain within the Columbia River Basin (CRB), which requires much finer grid spacing to resolve important terrain peaks in the Cascade Mountains as well as the Columbia River Gorge. Therefore, this project provides a unique opportunity to test and develop the RAP/HRRR physics suite within a very high-resolution nest (Δx = 750 m) over the northwestern US. Special effort is made to incorporate scale-aware aspects into the model physical parameterizations to improve RAP/HRRR wind forecasts for any application at any grid spacing. Many wind profiling and scanning instruments have been deployed in the CRB in support the WFIP 2 field project, which spanned 01 October 2015 to 31 March 2017. During the project, several forecast error modes were identified, such as: (1) too-shallow cold pools during the cool season, which can mix-out more frequently than observed and (2) the low wind speed bias in thermal trough-induced gap flows during the warm season. Development has been focused on the column-based turbulent mixing scheme to improve upon these biases, but investigating the effects of horizontal (and 3D) mixing has also helped improve some of the common forecast failure modes. This presentation will highlight the testing and development of various model components, showing the improvements over original versions for temperature and wind profiles. Examples of case studies and retrospective periods will be presented to illustrate the improvements. We will demonstrate that the improvements made in WFIP 2 will be extendable to other regions, complex or flat terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in RAP/HRRR physics development will be touched upon.

Evaluation of operational numerical weather predictions in relation to the prevailing synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

The Thessaly plain, which is located in central Greece, has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The aim of DAPHNE project (http://www.daphne-meteo.gr) is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification in convective clouds. This problem is reinforced by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, especially during the warm period of the year. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), is utilized for research and operational purposes of DAPHNE project. The WRF output fields are employed by the partners in order to provide high-resolution meteorological guidance and plan the project's operations. The model domains cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa, ii) Greece and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (at selected periods), at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively, using 2-way telescoping nesting. The aim of this research work is to investigate the model performance in relation to the prevailing upper-air synoptic circulation. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts of near-surface and upper air fields is performed at a selected period of the operational phase of the project using surface observations, gridded fields and weather radar data. The verification is based on gridded, point and object oriented techniques. The 10 upper-air circulation types, which describe the prevailing conditions over Greece, are employed in the synoptic classification. This methodology allows the identification of model errors that occur and/or are maximized at specific synoptic conditions and may otherwise be obscured in aggregate statistics. Preliminary analysis indicates that the largest errors are associated with cyclonic conditions. Acknowledgments This research work of Daphne project (11SYN_8_1088) is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the Operational Programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet sreak and planetary boundary layer adjustments in organizing an apparently isolated convective complex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, M. L.; Zack, J. W.; Wong, V. C.; Tuccillo, J. J.; Coats, G. D.

1982-01-01

A mesoscale atmospheric simulation system is described that is being developed in order to improve the simulation of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development, and significant atmospheric transport processes. Present emphasis in model development is in the parameterization of physical processes, time-dependent boundary conditions, sophisticated initialization and analysis procedures, nested grid solutions, and applications software development. Basic characteristics of the system as of March 1982 are listed. In a case study, the Grand Island tornado outbreak of 3 June 1980 is considered in substantial detail. Results of simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system indicate that over the high plains subtle interactions between existing jet streaks and deep well mixed boundary layers can lead to well organized patterns of mesoscale divergence and pressure falls. The amplitude and positioning of these mesoscale features is a function of the subtle nonlinear interaction between the pre-existing jet-streak and deep well mixed boundary layers. Model results for the case study indicate that the model has the potential for forecasting the precursor mesoscale convective environment.

Spectral characteristics of mid-latitude continental convection from a global variable-resolution Voronoi-mesh atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, M.; Skamarock, W. C.

2015-12-01

Global numerical weather forecast tests were performed using the global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment (May 2015) and the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign (June to mid-July 2015). These two sets of forecasts were performed on 50-to-3 km and 15-to-3 km smoothly-varying horizontal meshes, respectively. Both variable-resolution meshes have nominal convection-permitting 3-km grid spacing over the entire continental US. Here we evaluate the limited-area (vs. global) spectra from these NWP simulations. We will show the simulated spectral characteristics of total kinetic energy, vertical velocity variance, and precipitation during these spring and summer periods when diurnal continental convection is most active over central US. Spectral characteristics of a high-resolution global 3-km simulation (essentially no nesting) from the 20 May 2013 Moore, OK tornado case are also shown. These characteristics include spectral scaling, shape, and anisotropy, as well as the effective resolution of continental convection representation in MPAS.

A long slit-like entrance promotes ventilation in the mud nesting social wasp, Polybia spinifex: visualization of nest microclimates using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Hozumi, Satoshi; Inagaki, Terumi

2010-01-01

Polybia spinifex Richards (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) constructs mud nests characterized by a long slit-like entrance. The ventilation and thermal characteristics of the P. spinifex nest were investigated to determine whether the nest microclimate is automatically maintained due to the size of the entrance. In order to examine this hypothesis, a numerical simulation was employed to predict the effects of the entrance length. The calculations were performed with 3D-virtual models that simulated the P. spinifex nest conditions, and the reliability of the simulations was experimentally examined by using gypsum-model nests and a P. spinifex nest. The ventilation effect was determined by blowing air through the nest at 1-3 m/s (airflow conditions); the airspeed was found to be higher in models with a longer entrance. The ventilation rate was also higher in models with longer entrances, suggesting that the P. spinifex nest is automatically ventilated by natural winds. Next, the thermal effect was calculated under condition of direct sunlight. Under a calm condition (airflow, 0 m/s), thermal convection and a small temperature drop were observed in the case of models with a long entrance, whereas the ventilation and thermoregulation effects seemed small. Under airflow conditions, the temperature at the mid combs steeply dropped due to the convective airflow through the entrance at 1-2 m/s, and at 3 m/s, most of the heat was eliminated due to high thermal conductivity of the mud envelope, rather than convection.

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, Thomas F.; Grand, James B.; Miller, David A.W.; Anthony, R. Michael

2006-01-01

The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Variable-Resolution Ensemble Climatology Modeling of Sierra Nevada Snowpack within the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Levy, M.; Taylor, M.

2014-12-01

Snowpack is crucial for the western USA, providing around 75% of the total fresh water supply (Cayan et al., 1996) and buffering against seasonal aridity impacts on agricultural, ecosystem, and urban water demands. The resilience of the California water system is largely dependent on natural stores provided by snowpack. This resilience has shown vulnerabilities due to anthropogenic global climate change. Historically, the northern Sierras showed a net decline of 50-75% in snow water equivalent (SWE) while the southern Sierras showed a net accumulation of 30% (Mote et al., 2005). Future trends of SWE highlight that western USA SWE may decline by 40-70% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), snowfall may decrease by 25-40% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), and more winter storms may tend towards rain rather than snow (Bales et al., 2006). The volatility of Sierran snowpack presents a need for scientific tools to help water managers and policy makers assess current and future trends. A burgeoning tool to analyze these trends comes in the form of variable-resolution global climate modeling (VRGCM). VRGCMs serve as a bridge between regional and global models and provide added resolution in areas of need, eliminate lateral boundary forcings, provide model runtime speed up, and utilize a common dynamical core, physics scheme and sub-grid scale parameterization package. A cubed-sphere variable-resolution grid with 25 km horizontal resolution over the western USA was developed for use in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A 25-year three-member ensemble climatology (1980-2005) is presented and major snowpack metrics such as SWE, snow depth, snow cover, and two-meter surface temperature are assessed. The ensemble simulation is also compared to observational, reanalysis, and WRF model datasets. The variable-resolution model provides a mechanism for reaching towards non-hydrostatic scales and simulations are currently being developed with refined nests of 12.5km resolution over California.

Surface Wind and Upper-Ocean Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulated by the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

observed data at one location include variability caused by small -scale atmospheric convec- tion and wind variations that cannot be resolved by the... data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this...high-resolution nested grid (9 km) for the atmospheric component is used for the central Indian Ocean. While observational data are assimilated into the

Modeling nest survival of cavity-nesting birds in relation to postfire salvage logging

Treesearch

Vicki Saab; Robin E. Russell; Jay Rotella; Jonathan G. Dudley

2011-01-01

Salvage logging practices in recently burned forests often have direct effects on species associated with dead trees, particularly cavity-nesting birds. As such, evaluation of postfire management practices on nest survival rates of cavity nesters is necessary for determining conservation strategies. We monitored 1,797 nests of 6 cavity-nesting bird species: Lewis'...

Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Otto, Mark C.; Kendall, William L.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

2011-01-01

The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover rate and used this rate to simulate decline in number of occupied nests in list nests over time. Results of Watts and Duerr suggest that, given the rates of loss of nests from the list of known nest sites in Virginia, the list information will be of little value to sampling unless lists are constantly updated. Those authors criticize the plan for not placing sufficient emphasis on updating and maintaining lists of bald eagle nests. Watts and Duerr's metric of turnover rate does not distinguish detectability or temporary nonuse of nests from permanent loss of nests and likely overestimates turnover rate. We describe a multi-state capture–recapture model that allows appropriate estimation of rates of loss of nests, and we use the model to estimate rates of loss from a sample of nests from Maine, USA. The post-delisting monitoring plan addresses the need to maintain and update the lists of nests, and we show that dual frame sampling is an effective approach for sampling nesting bald eagle populations.

Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate Models and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Luca, Alejandro; de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René

2012-03-01

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions.

Long-term Simulation of Photo-oxidants and Particulate Matter Over Europe With The Eurad Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memmesheimer, M.; Friese, E.; Jakobs, H. J.; Feldmann, H.; Ebel, A.; Kerschgens, M. J.

During recent years the interest in long-term applications of air pollution modeling systems (AQMS) has strongly increased. Most of these models have been developed for the application to photo-oxidant episodes during the last decade. In this contribu- tion a long-term application of the EURAD modeling sytem to the year 1997 is pre- sented. Atmospheric particles are included using the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE). Meteorological fields are simulated by the mesoscale meteoro- logical model MM5, gas-phase chemistry has been treated with the RACM mecha- nism. The nesting option is used to zoom in areas of specific interest. Horizontal grid sizes are 125 km for the reginal scale, and 5 km for the local scale covering the area of North-Rhine-Westfalia (NRW). The results have been compared to observations of the air quality network of the environmental agency of NRW for the year 1997. The model results have been evaluated using the data quality objectives of the EU direc- tive 99/30. Further improvement for application of regional-scale air quality models is needed with respect to emission data bases, coupling to global models to improve the boundary values, interaction between aerosols and clouds and multiphase modeling.

ON JOINT DETERMINISTIC GRID MODELING AND SUB-GRID VARIABILITY CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODEL EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

The general situation, (but exemplified in urban areas), where a significant degree of sub-grid variability (SGV) exists in grid models poses problems when comparing gridbased air quality modeling results with observations. Typically, grid models ignore or parameterize processes ...

Female turtles from hot nests: is it duration of incubation or proportion of development at high temperatures that matters?

PubMed

Georges, Arthur

1989-11-01

Mean daily temperature in natural nests of freshwater turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination is known to be a poor predictor of hatchling sex ratios when nest temperatures fluctuate. To account for this, a model was developed on the assumption that females will emerge from eggs when more than half of embryonic development occurs above the threshold temperature for sex determination rather than from eggs that spend more than half their time above the threshold. The model is consistent with previously published data and in particular explains the phenomenon whereby the mean temperature that best distinguishes between male and female nests decreases with increasing variability in nest temperature. The model, if verified by controlled experiments, has important implications for our understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination in natural nests. Both mean nest temperature and "hours spent above the threshold" will be poor predictors of hatchling sex ratios. Studies designed to investigate latitudinal trends and inter-specific differences in the threshold temperature will need to consider latitudinal and inter-specific variation in the magnitude of diel fluctuations in nest temperature, and variation in factors influencing the magnitude of those fluctuations, such as nest depth. Furthermore, any factor that modifies the relationship between developmental rate and temperature can be expected to influence hatchling sex ratios in natural nests, especially when nest temperatures are close to the threshold.

Stochastic collocation using Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite quadrature with moderate delay for subsurface flow and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Q.; Tchelepi, H.; Zhang, D.

2015-12-01

Uncertainty quantification aims at characterizing the impact of input parameters on the output responses and plays an important role in many areas including subsurface flow and transport. In this study, a sparse grid collocation approach, which uses a nested Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite quadrature rule with moderate delay for Gaussian random parameters, is proposed to quantify the uncertainty of model solutions. The conventional stochastic collocation method serves as a promising non-intrusive approach and has drawn a great deal of interests. The collocation points are usually chosen to be Gauss-Hermite quadrature nodes, which are naturally unnested. The Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite nodes are shown to be more efficient than the Gauss-Hermite nodes due to nestedness. We propose a Kronrod-Patterson-Hermite rule with moderate delay to further improve the performance. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method for uncertainty quantification through subsurface flow and transport examples.

The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become common in many urban areas, often creating nuisance problems for human residents. The presence of urban geese has raised concerns about the spread of disease, increased erosion, excessive noise, eutrophication of waterways, and general nuisance problems. Goose populations have grown due to an increase in urbanization resulting in an abundance of high quality food (urban grass) and suitable nesting sites, as well as a decrease in some predators. I monitored nest predation in the Chicago suburbs during the 2004 and 2005 nesting seasons using 3 nest monitoring techniques to identify predators: video cameras, plasticinemore » eggs, and sign from nest using a classification tree analysis. Of 58 nests monitored in 2004 and 286 in 2005, only raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were identified as nest predators. Raccoons were responsible for 22-25% of depredated nests, but were rarely capable of depredating nests that were actively defended by a goose. Coyotes were responsible for 75-78% of all Canada goose nest depredation and were documented killing one adult goose and feeding on several others. The coyote is a top-level predator that had increased in many metropolitan areas in recent years. To determine if coyotes were actively hunting geese or eggs during the nesting season, I analyzed coyote habitat selection between nesting and pre-nesting or post-nesting seasons. Coyote home ranges (95% Minimum Convex Polygon) were calculated for 19 coyotes to examine third order habitat selection related to goose nest abundance. A 100 m buffer (buffer habitat) was created and centered on each waterway edge and contained 90% of all nests. Coyotes showed selection for habitats during all seasons. Buffer habitat was the top ranked habitat in both pre-nesting and nesting seasons, but dropped to third ranked in post-nesting season. Habitat selection across seasons was compared using a repeated measures MANOVA. Habitat selection between pre-nesting and nesting seasons (P=0.72) were similar, while between post-nesting and nesting seasons there was a nearly significant difference (P=0.07). The insignificant change in habitat use across seasons suggests that coyotes did not switch habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. Alternatively, the change in ranking of buffer habitat across seasons suggests that coyotes may have switched habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. The results are not clear as large individual variation between coyotes due to differences in habitat availability, and social status interfere with the results of the analysis. Even though I failed to find strong support for coyotes actively hunting goose nests, they nevertheless were the primary nest predator in the area and may influence Canada goose populations. To determine the potential influence of coyotes on the Canada goose population, I created a Canada goose matrix population model that included variables such as coyote predation on adults and nests as well as coyote influence on nest desertion. Using the base population model I calculated the Canada goose population to be increasing with {lambda} = 1.055. The removal of all coyote influence on the goose population would allow {lambda} to increase to 1.214. Nest predation was the most important factor related to coyotes: the removal of coyote nest predation from the model resulted in a population growth rate {lambda} = 1.157. Modeling results suggest coyotes are serving as a limiting factor for the Canada goose population within the Chicago metropolitan area.« less

Applying geographic profiling used in the field of criminology for predicting the nest locations of bumble bees.

PubMed

Suzuki-Ohno, Yukari; Inoue, Maki N; Ohno, Kazunori

2010-07-21

We tested whether geographic profiling (GP) can predict multiple nest locations of bumble bees. GP was originally developed in the field of criminology for predicting the area where an offender most likely resides on the basis of the actual crime sites and the predefined probability of crime interaction. The predefined probability of crime interaction in the GP model depends on the distance of a site from an offender's residence. We applied GP for predicting nest locations, assuming that foraging and nest sites were the crime sites and the offenders' residences, respectively. We identified the foraging and nest sites of the invasive species Bombus terrestris in 2004, 2005, and 2006. We fitted GP model coefficients to the field data of the foraging and nest sites, and used GP with the fitting coefficients. GP succeeded in predicting about 10-30% of actual nests. Sensitivity analysis showed that the predictability of the GP model mainly depended on the coefficient value of buffer zone, the distance at the mode of the foraging probability. GP will be able to predict the nest locations of bumble bees in other area by using the fitting coefficient values measured in this study. It will be possible to further improve the predictability of the GP model by considering food site preference and nest density. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Neary, Vincent S.; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a test bed study conducted to evaluate best practices in wave modeling to characterize energy resources. The model test bed off the central Oregon Coast was selected because of the high wave energy and available measured data at the site. Two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII, were evaluated. A four-level nested-grid approach—from global to test bed scale—was employed. Model skills were assessed using a set of model performance metrics based on comparing six simulated wave resource parameters to observations from a wave buoy inside the test bed. Both WWIII and SWAN performed well at themore » test bed site and exhibited similar modeling skills. The ST4 package with WWIII, which represents better physics for wave growth and dissipation, out-performed ST2 physics and improved wave power density and significant wave height predictions. However, ST4 physics tended to overpredict the wave energy period. The newly developed ST6 physics did not improve the overall model skill for predicting the six wave resource parameters. Sensitivity analysis using different wave frequencies and direction resolutions indicated the model results were not sensitive to spectral resolutions at the test bed site, likely due to the absence of complex bathymetric and geometric features.« less

Nest site attributes and temporal patterns of northern flicker nest loss: effects of predation and competition.

PubMed

Fisher, Ryan J; Wiebe, Karen L

2006-04-01

To date, most studies of nest site selection have failed to take into account more than one source of nest loss (or have combined all sources in one analysis) when examining nest site characteristics, leaving us with an incomplete understanding of the potential trade-offs that individuals may face when selecting a nest site. Our objectives were to determine whether northern flickers (Colaptes auratus) may experience a trade-off in nest site selection in response to mammalian nest predation and nest loss to a cavity nest competitor (European starling, Sturnus vulgaris). We also document within-season temporal patterns of these two sources of nest loss with the hypothesis that flickers may also be constrained in the timing of reproduction under both predatory and competitive influence. Mammalian predators frequently depredated flicker nests that were: lower to the ground, less concealed by vegetation around the cavity entrance and at the base of the nest tree, closer to coniferous forest edges and in forest clumps with a high percentage of conifer content. Proximity to coniferous edges or coniferous trees increased the probability of nest predation, but nests near conifers were less likely to be lost to starlings. Flickers may thus face a trade-off in nest site selection with respect to safety from predators or competitors. Models suggested that peaks of nest predation and nest loss to eviction occurred at the same time, although a competing model suggested that the peak of nest loss to starlings occurred 5 days earlier than the peak of mammalian predation. Differences in peaks of mammalian predation and loss to starlings may constrain any adjustment in clutch initiation date by flickers to avoid one source of nest loss.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for nest-survival models

Treesearch

Rodney X. Sturdivant; Jay J. Rotella; Robin E. Russell

2008-01-01

Estimating nest success and identifying important factors related to nest-survival rates is an essential goal for many wildlife researchers interested in understanding avian population dynamics. Advances in statistical methods have led to a number of estimation methods and approaches to modeling this problem. Recently developed models allow researchers to include a...

The eGo grid model: An open source approach towards a model of German high and extra-high voltage power grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Ulf Philipp; Wienholt, Lukas; Kleinhans, David; Cussmann, Ilka; Bunke, Wolf-Dieter; Pleßmann, Guido; Wendiggensen, Jochen

2018-02-01

There are several power grid modelling approaches suitable for simulations in the field of power grid planning. The restrictive policies of grid operators, regulators and research institutes concerning their original data and models lead to an increased interest in open source approaches of grid models based on open data. By including all voltage levels between 60 kV (high voltage) and 380kV (extra high voltage), we dissolve the common distinction between transmission and distribution grid in energy system models and utilize a single, integrated model instead. An open data set for primarily Germany, which can be used for non-linear, linear and linear-optimal power flow methods, was developed. This data set consists of an electrically parameterised grid topology as well as allocated generation and demand characteristics for present and future scenarios at high spatial and temporal resolution. The usability of the grid model was demonstrated by the performance of exemplary power flow optimizations. Based on a marginal cost driven power plant dispatch, being subject to grid restrictions, congested power lines were identified. Continuous validation of the model is nescessary in order to reliably model storage and grid expansion in progressing research.

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B.

2017-01-01

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Red-shouldered hawk nesting habitat preference in south Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strobel, Bradley N.; Boal, Clint W.

2010-01-01

We examined nesting habitat preference by red-shouldered hawks Buteo lineatus using conditional logistic regression on characteristics measured at 27 occupied nest sites and 68 unused sites in 2005–2009 in south Texas. We measured vegetation characteristics of individual trees (nest trees and unused trees) and corresponding 0.04-ha plots. We evaluated the importance of tree and plot characteristics to nesting habitat selection by comparing a priori tree-specific and plot-specific models using Akaike's information criterion. Models with only plot variables carried 14% more weight than models with only center tree variables. The model-averaged odds ratios indicated red-shouldered hawks selected to nest in taller trees and in areas with higher average diameter at breast height than randomly available within the forest stand. Relative to randomly selected areas, each 1-m increase in nest tree height and 1-cm increase in the plot average diameter at breast height increased the probability of selection by 85% and 10%, respectively. Our results indicate that red-shouldered hawks select nesting habitat based on vegetation characteristics of individual trees as well as the 0.04-ha area surrounding the tree. Our results indicate forest management practices resulting in tall forest stands with large average diameter at breast height would benefit red-shouldered hawks in south Texas.

Air quality modeling for the urban Jackson, Mississippi Region using a high resolution WRF/Chem model.

PubMed

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Challa, Srinivas V; Young, John H; Patrick, Chuck; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Yerramilli, Sudha; Tuluri, Francis; Hardy, Mark G; Swanier, Shelton J

2011-06-01

In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the air quality with reference to ozone over the Jackson (Mississippi) region using an online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry) model. The WRF/Chem model has the advantages of the integration of the meteorological and chemistry modules with the same computational grid and same physical parameterizations and includes the feedback between the atmospheric chemistry and physical processes. The model was designed to have three nested domains with the inner-most domain covering the study region with a resolution of 1 km. The model was integrated for 48 hours continuously starting from 0000 UTC of 6 June 2006 and the evolution of surface ozone and other precursor pollutants were analyzed. The model simulated atmospheric flow fields and distributions of NO2 and O3 were evaluated for each of the three different time periods. The GIS based spatial distribution maps for ozone, its precursors NO, NO2, CO and HONO and the back trajectories indicate that all the mobile sources in Jackson, Ridgeland and Madison contributing significantly for their formation. The present study demonstrates the applicability of WRF/Chem model to generate quantitative information at high spatial and temporal resolution for the development of decision support systems for air quality regulatory agencies and health administrators.

Factors influencing nesting success of king eiders on northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2008-01-01

King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002-2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21-0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation maybe attributable to sampling variation (??process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003-0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy, females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.

Breeding ecology and nesting habitat associations of five marsh bird species in western New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lor, S.; Malecki, R.A.

2006-01-01

Nesting habitats and nest success of five species of marsh birds were studied during 1997 and 1998 at the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and the adjacent Oak Orchard and Tonawanda State Wildlife Management Areas (WMA) located in western New York. Nest searches located 18 American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), 117 Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), 189 Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), 23 Sora (Porzana carolina), and 72 Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) nests. Average nest densities in 1998, our best nest searching year, ranged from 0.01/ha for Soras (N = 8) to 0.28/ha for Pied-billed Grebes (N = 160). Mayfield nest success estimates for Least Bittern were 80% (N = 16) in 1997 and 46% (N = 37) in 1998. Nest success estimates were 72% (N = 55) for Pied-billed Grebe, 43% (N = 6) for Sora, and 38% (N = 20) for Virginia Rail. Nests of all five species were located in ???70% emergent vegetation with a mean water depth of 24-56 cm and an average vegetation height that ranged from 69-133 cm. Logistic regression models were developed for each species using habitat variables at nest and random site locations. Each model was ranked with Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size (AICc). In general, our best models indicated that increased emergent vegetation and horizontal cover with shallow water depths improved the odds of encountering marsh bird nests in the wetlands of western New York. We suggest that managing wetlands as a complex, at different stages of succession, would best benefit marsh bird species.

Species associations and habitat influence the range-wide distribution of breeding Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior) on Western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, Matthew E.; Andersen, David E.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Humburg, Dale D.

2017-01-01

Inter- and intra-specific interactions are potentially important factors influencing the distribution of populations. Aerial survey data, collected during range-wide breeding population surveys for Eastern Prairie Population (EPP) Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior), 1987–2008, were evaluated to assess factors influencing their nesting distribution. Specifically, associations between nesting Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and EPP Canada Geese were quantified; and changes in the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese were identified. Mixed-effects Poisson regression models of EPP Canada Goose nest counts were evaluated within a cross-validation framework. The total count of EPP Canada Goose nests varied moderately among years between 1987 and 2008 with no long-term trend; however, the total count of nesting Lesser Snow Geese generally increased. Three models containing factors related to previous EPP Canada Goose nest density (representing recruitment), distance to Hudson Bay (representing brood-habitat), nesting habitat type, and Lesser Snow Goose nest density (inter-specific associations) were the most accurate, improving prediction accuracy by 45% when compared to intercept-only models. EPP Canada Goose nest density varied by habitat type, was negatively associated with distance to coastal brood-rearing areas, and suggested density-dependent intra-specific effects on recruitment. However, a non-linear relationship between Lesser Snow and EPP Canada Goose nest density suggests that as nesting Lesser Snow Geese increase, EPP Canada Geese locally decline and subsequently the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese on western Hudson Bay has changed.

About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

2018-02-01

The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees.

PubMed

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A R; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N-1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A. R.; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N -1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Application and evaluation of two air quality models for particulate matter for a southeastern U.S. episode.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Pun, Betty; Wu, Shiang-Yuh; Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Seigneur, Christian

2004-12-01

The Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System and the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (PMCAMx) were applied to simulate the period June 29-July 10, 1999, of the Southern Oxidants Study episode with two nested horizontal grid sizes: a coarse resolution of 32 km and a fine resolution of 8 km. The predicted spatial variations of ozone (O3), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 microm (PM10) by both models are similar in rural areas but differ from one another significantly over some urban/suburban areas in the eastern and southern United States, where PMCAMx tends to predict higher values of O3 and PM than CMAQ. Both models tend to predict O3 values that are higher than those observed. For observed O3 values above 60 ppb, O3 performance meets the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's criteria for CMAQ with both grids and for PMCAMx with the fine grid only. It becomes unsatisfactory for PMCAMx and marginally satisfactory for CMAQ for observed O3 values above 40 ppb. Both models predict similar amounts of sulfate (SO4(2-)) and organic matter, and both predict SO4(2-) to be the largest contributor to PM2.5. PMCAMx generally predicts higher amounts of ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), and black carbon (BC) than does CMAQ. PM performance for CMAQ is generally consistent with that of other PM models, whereas PMCAMx predicts higher concentrations of NO3-, NH4+, and BC than observed, which degrades its performance. For PM10 and PM2.5 predictions over the southeastern U.S. domain, the ranges of mean normalized gross errors (MNGEs) and mean normalized bias are 37-43% and -33-4% for CMAQ and 50-59% and 7-30% for PMCAMx. Both models predict the largest MNGEs for NO3- (98-104% for CMAQ 138-338% for PMCAMx). The inaccurate NO3- predictions by both models may be caused by the inaccuracies in the ammonia emission inventory and the uncertainties in the gas/particle partitioning under some conditions. In addition to these uncertainties, the significant PM overpredictions by PMCAMx may be attributed to the lack of wet removal for PM and a likely underprediction in the vertical mixing during the daytime.

A Micro-Grid Simulator Tool (SGridSim) using Effective Node-to-Node Complex Impedance (EN2NCI) Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Udhay Ravishankar; Milos manic

2013-08-01

This paper presents a micro-grid simulator tool useful for implementing and testing multi-agent controllers (SGridSim). As a common engineering practice it is important to have a tool that simplifies the modeling of the salient features of a desired system. In electric micro-grids, these salient features are the voltage and power distributions within the micro-grid. Current simplified electric power grid simulator tools such as PowerWorld, PowerSim, Gridlab, etc, model only the power distribution features of a desired micro-grid. Other power grid simulators such as Simulink, Modelica, etc, use detailed modeling to accommodate the voltage distribution features. This paper presents a SGridSimmore » micro-grid simulator tool that simplifies the modeling of both the voltage and power distribution features in a desired micro-grid. The SGridSim tool accomplishes this simplified modeling by using Effective Node-to-Node Complex Impedance (EN2NCI) models of components that typically make-up a micro-grid. The term EN2NCI models means that the impedance based components of a micro-grid are modeled as single impedances tied between their respective voltage nodes on the micro-grid. Hence the benefit of the presented SGridSim tool are 1) simulation of a micro-grid is performed strictly in the complex-domain; 2) faster simulation of a micro-grid by avoiding the simulation of detailed transients. An example micro-grid model was built using the SGridSim tool and tested to simulate both the voltage and power distribution features with a total absolute relative error of less than 6%.« less

Use of novel nest boxes by carmine bee-eaters (Merops nubicus) in captivity.

PubMed

Elston, Jennifer J; Carney, Jennifer; Quinones, Glorieli; Sky, Christy; Plasse, Chelle; Bettinger, Tammie

2007-01-01

Carmine bee-eaters make attractive additions to zoo aviaries but breeding programs have had challenges and limited success. The objectives of this study were to document nesting behavior of Carmine bee-eaters in a captive setting and compare reproductive success between a novel nest box (plastic, 17 x 30 x 22 cm) and a PVC pipe model used previously (30 cm long, 8 cm in diameter). Three bee-eater pairs were given access to seven nest chambers (six novel boxes, one PVC model). Behavioral observations occurred during a 15-min period in the morning or afternoon before egg production and continued until chicks fledged for a total of 87 observation periods (21.75 hr). All occurrences by an individual bird entering or exiting a nest tunnel, food provision, and the time (min) spent inside a nest cavity were documented. Additionally, daily temperature within each nest chamber was recorded. Before eggs were produced the average daily temperature (23.02 degrees C) within the nest chambers did not differ, suggesting that nest cavity choice was not influenced by temperature. No differences were detected among pairs in percent of observed time spent inside their nest cavities or number of times a nest tunnel was entered during the incubation or fledging periods. During incubation females spent a greater percent of observed time inside the nest cavity than males (P=0.02). During the fledging period food provision did not differ between the pairs, however males entered their nest tunnels more often per hour than females (P=0.03), and males tended to provide food more often than females (P=0.053). Two pairs nested in novel nest boxes and successfully fledged one chick each. The pair that nested in the PVC model did not fledge a chick. A nest box that aids in keeping eggs intact is essential for breeding bee-eaters in captivity, and maintaining captive populations will provide opportunities for zoo visitors to enjoy these birds and will reduce the need to remove birds from the wild. Zoo Biol 0:1-13, 2007. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauritzen, P. H.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Callaghan, P. F.; Taylor, M. A.

2015-06-01

It is the purpose of this paper to document the NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids. Given a model grid, the software computes the fraction of the grid box covered by land, the gridbox mean elevation, and associated sub-grid scale variances commonly used for gravity wave and turbulent mountain stress parameterizations. The software supports regular latitude-longitude grids as well as unstructured grids; e.g. icosahedral, Voronoi, cubed-sphere and variable resolution grids. As an example application and in the spirit of documenting model development, exploratory simulations illustrating the impacts of topographic smoothing with the NCAR-DOE CESM (Community Earth System Model) CAM5.2-SE (Community Atmosphere Model version 5.2 - Spectral Elements dynamical core) are shown.

The implications of variable remigration intervals for the assessment of population size in marine turtles.

PubMed

Hays, G C

2000-09-21

Sea turtles nest on sandy beaches and tend to show high fidelity to specific nesting areas, but, despite this fidelity, the inter-annual variation in nesting numbers may be large. This variation may reflect the fact that turtles do not usually nest in consecutive years. Here, theoretical models are developed in which the interval between successive nesting years (the remigration interval) reflects conditions encountered on the feeding grounds, with good feeding years leading to a reduction in the remigration interval and vice versa. These simple models produce high levels of inter-annual variation in nesting numbers with, on occasion, almost no turtles nesting in some years even when the population is large and stable. The implications for assessing the size of sea turtle populations are considered. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Cerulean warbler reproduction, survival, and models of population decline

Treesearch

David A. Buehler; James J. Giocomo; Jason Jones; Paul B. Hamel; Christopher M. Rogers; Tiffany A. Beachy; Dustin W. Varble; Charles P. Nicholson; Kirk L. Roth; JEnnifer Barg; Raleigh J. Robertson; Joseph R. Robb; Kamal Islam

2008-01-01

We present and compare demographic data for cerulean warblers (Dendroica cerulea) from 5 study sites across the range of the species from 1992 to 2006. We conducted field studies to collect data on daily nest survival, nest success, and young fledged per successful nest, and we used data to estimate fecundity. Daily nest survival, nest success, young...

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Highly variable aerodynamic roughness length (z0) for a hummocky debris-covered glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, Evan S.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Brun, Fanny

2017-08-01

The aerodynamic roughness length (z0) is an essential parameter in surface energy balance studies, but few literature values exist for debris-covered glaciers. We use microtopographic and aerodynamic methods to assess the spatial variability of z0 for Lirung Glacier, Nepal. We apply structure from motion to produce digital elevation models for three nested domains: five 1 m2 plots, a 21,300 m2 surface depression, and the lower 550,000 m2 of the debris-mantled tongue. Wind and temperature sensor towers were installed in the vicinity of the plots within the surface depression in October 2014. We calculate z0 according to a variety of transect-based microtopographic parameterizations for each plot, then develop a grid version of the algorithms by aggregating data from all transects. This grid approach is applied to the surface depression digital elevation model to characterize z0 spatial variability. The algorithms reproduce the same variability among transects and plots, but z0 estimates vary by an order of magnitude between algorithms. Across the study depression, results from different algorithms are strongly correlated. Using Monin-Obukov similarity theory, we derive z0 values from the meteorological data. Using different stability criteria, we derive median values of z0 between 0.03 m and 0.05 m, but with considerable uncertainty due to the glacier's complex topography. Considering estimates from these algorithms, results suggest that z0 varies across Lirung Glacier between ˜0.005 m (gravels) to ˜0.5 m (boulders). Future efforts should assess the importance of such variable z0 values in a distributed energy balance model.

Numerical experiments based on a coupled physical-biochemical ocean model to study the Kuroshio-induced nutrient supply on the shelf-slope region off the southwestern coast of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Hiroshi; Takasuka, Akinori; Hirota, Yuichi; Kodama, Taketoshi; Ichikawa, Tadafumi; Takahashi, Daisuke; Aoki, Kazuhiro; Setou, Takashi

2018-03-01

We developed a triply nested 1/50° ocean model coupled with a NPZD-type lower trophic level ecosystem model and used it to conduct numerical experiments to identify the major processes that supply nutrients on the shelf-slope region north of the Kuroshio. Tosa Bay, an open-type bay facing the Kuroshio, was selected for our experiment. Comparisons of numerical simulations using different grid sizes revealed that a grid size no larger than 1/50° was essential to reproduce a time-independent density structure related to the Kuroshio jet that uplifted nitrate from subsurface waters into the euphotic zone north of the Kuroshio front. The monthly mean budget of nitrate within the euphotic zone on the shelf showed that primary production was nearly balanced by physical advection and the biochemical supply of nitrate via mechanisms such as remineralization of detritus. Eddy advection of nitrate based on Reynolds decomposition, attributable primarily to submesoscale variations, had both positive and negative values within the bay, the indication being that eddy advection functioned regionally to supply or remove nitrate. Lagrangian particle-tracking experiments were performed to examine the major pathways of the nitrate used for primary production in Tosa Bay during the summer, when subsurface maxima of primary production typically appeared. The experiments revealed that when the Kuroshio took a stable nearshore path, nitrate was frequently uplifted around the Kuroshio front and horizontally transported along the front and into the bay via the counterclockwise circulation within the bay; it was sometimes further uplifted onto the shelf.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-02-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4-T5 (Torro scale) and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography). The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN), the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH) and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e). Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography was denoted as an important factor during 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI and BRN analyses. Topography around 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN analyses.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-07-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4-T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

UA-ICON - A non-hydrostatic global model for studying gravity waves from the troposphere to the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borchert, Sebastian; Zängl, Günther; Baldauf, Michael; Zhou, Guidi; Schmidt, Hauke; Manzini, Elisa

2017-04-01

In numerical weather prediction as well as climate simulations, there are ongoing efforts to raise the upper model lid, acknowledging the possible influence of middle and upper atmosphere dynamics on tropospheric weather and climate. As the momentum deposition of gravity waves (GWs) is responsible for key features of the large scale flow in the middle and upper atmosphere, the upward model extension has put GWs in the focus of atmospheric research needs. The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) and the German Weather Service (DWD) have been developing jointly the non-hydrostatic global model ICON (Zängl et al, 2015) which features a new dynamical core based on an icosahedral grid. The extension of ICON beyond the mesosphere, where most GWs deposit their momentum, requires, e.g., relaxing the shallow-atmosphere and other traditional approximations as well as implementing additional physical processes that are important to the upper atmosphere. We would like to present aspects of the model development and its evaluation, and first results from a simulation of a period of the DEEPWAVE campaign in New Zealand in 2014 (Fritts et al, 2016) using grid nesting up to a horizontal mesh size of about 1.25 km. This work is part of the research unit: Multi-Scale Dynamics of Gravity Waves (MS-GWaves: sub-project GWING, https://ms-gwaves.iau.uni-frankfurt.de/index.php), funded by the German Research Foundation. Fritts, D.C. and Coauthors, 2016: "The Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE): An airborne and ground-based exploration of gravity wave propagation and effects from their sources throughout the lower and middle atmosphere". Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 425 - 453, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00269.1 Zängl, G., Reinert, D., Ripodas, P., Baldauf, M., 2015: "The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core". Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 141, 563 - 579, doi:10.1002/qj.2378

Cloud life cycle investigated via high resolution and full microphysics simulations in the surroundings of Manaus, Central Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauliquevis, T.; Gomes, H. B.; Barbosa, H. M.

2014-12-01

In this study we evaluate the skill of WRF model to simulate the actual diurnal cycle of convection in the Amazon basin. Models tipically are not capable to simulate the well documented cycle of 1) shallow cumulus in the morning; 2) towering process around noon; 3) shallow-to-deep convection and rain around 14h (LT). The fail in models is explained by the typical size of shallow cumulus (~0.5 - 2.0 km) and the coarse resolution of models using convection parameterisation (> 20 km). In this study we employed high spatial resolution (Dx = 0.625 km) to reach the shallow cumulus scale. . The simulations corresponds to a dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim from 25 to 28 February 2013 with 40 vertical levels, 30 minutes outputs,and three nested grids (10 km, 2.5 km, 0.625 km). Improved vegetation (USGS + PROVEG), albedo and greenfrac (computed from MODIS-NDVI + LEAF-2 land surface parameterization), as well as pseudo analysis of soil moisture were used as input data sets, resulting in more realistic precipitation fields when compared to observations in sensitivity tests. Convective parameterization was switched off for the 2.5/0.625 km grids, where cloud formation was solely resolved by the microphysics module (WSM6 scheme, which provided better results). Results showed a significant improved capability of the model to simulate diurnal cycle. Shallow cumulus begin to appear in the first hours in the morning. They were followed by a towering process that culminates with precipitation in the early afternoon, which is a behavior well described by observations but rarely obtained in models. Rain volumes were also realistic (~20 mm for single events) when compared to typical events during the period, which is in the core of the wet season. Cloud fields evolution also differed with respect to Amazonas River bank, which is a clear evidence of the interaction between river breeze and large scale circulation.

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Sarah R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Boal, Clint W.; Patten, Michael; Wolfe, Don H.; Dixon, Charles; Cox, Robert D.; Heck, Willard R.

2016-01-01

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground (P = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction (P ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

On the use of Schwarz-Christoffel conformal mappings to the grid generation for global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2015-10-01

In this article we propose two grid generation methods for global ocean general circulation models. Contrary to conventional dipolar or tripolar grids, the proposed methods are based on Schwarz-Christoffel conformal mappings that map areas with user-prescribed, irregular boundaries to those with regular boundaries (i.e., disks, slits, etc.). The first method aims at improving existing dipolar grids. Compared with existing grids, the sample grid achieves a better trade-off between the enlargement of the latitudinal-longitudinal portion and the overall smooth grid cell size transition. The second method addresses more modern and advanced grid design requirements arising from high-resolution and multi-scale ocean modeling. The generated grids could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to the large-scale coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the grids are orthogonal curvilinear, they can be easily utilized by the majority of ocean general circulation models that are based on finite difference and require grid orthogonality. The proposed grid generation algorithms can also be applied to the grid generation for regional ocean modeling where complex land-sea distribution is present.

Nesting ecology of Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian and palustrine wetlands of eastern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

McWethy, D.B.; Austin, J.E.

2009-01-01

Little information exists on breeding Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian wetlands of the Intermountain West. We examined the nesting ecology of Sandhill Cranes associated with riparian and palustrine wetlands in the Henry's Fork Watershed in eastern Idaho in 2003. We located 36 active crane nests, 19 in riparian wetlands and 17 in palustrine wetlands. Nesting sites were dominated by rushes (Juncus spp.), sedges (Carex spp.), Broad-leaved Cattail (Typha latifolia) and willow (Salix spp.), and adjacent foraging areas were primarily composed of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), cinquefoil (Potentilla spp.),Rabbitbrush (Ericameria bloomeri) bunch grasses, upland forbs, Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) and cottonwood (Populus spp.). Mean water depth surrounding nests was 23 cm (SD = 22). A majority of nests (61%) were surrounded by vegetation between 3060 cm, 23% by vegetation 60 cm in height. We were able to determine the fate of 29 nests, of which 20 were successful (69%). Daily nest survival was 0.986 (95% LCI 0.963, UCI 0.995), equivalent to a Mayfield nest success of 0.654 (95% LCI 0.324, UCI 0.853). Model selection favored models with the covariates vegetation type, vegetation height, and water depth. Nest survival increased with increasing water depth surrounding nest sites. Mean water depth was higher around successful nests (30 cm, SD = 21) than unsuccessful nests (15 cm, SD 22). Further research is needed to evaluate the relative contribution of cranes nesting in palustrine and riparian wetlands distributed widely across the Intermountain West.

Incorporating local land use regression and satellite aerosol optical depth in a hybrid model of spatiotemporal PM2.5 exposures in the Mid-Atlantic states.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Nordio, Francesco; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel

2012-11-06

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatiotemporally resolved predictions of both long and short-term exposures, but previous studies have generally shown moderate predictive power and lacked detailed high spatio- temporal resolution predictions across large domains. We aimed at extending our previous work by validating our model in another region with different geographical and metrological characteristics, and incorporating fine scale land use regression and nonrandom missingness to better predict PM(2.5) concentrations for days with or without satellite AOD measures. We start by calibrating AOD data for 2000-2008 across the Mid-Atlantic. We used mixed models regressing PM(2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We used inverse probability weighting to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD, nested regions within days to capture spatial variation in the daily calibration, and introduced a penalization method that reduces the dimensionality of the large number of spatial and temporal predictors without selecting different predictors in different locations. We then take advantage of the association between grid-cell specific AOD values and PM(2.5) monitoring data, together with associations between AOD values in neighboring grid cells to develop grid cell predictions when AOD is missing. Finally to get local predictions (at the resolution of 50 m), we regressed the residuals from the predictions for each monitor from these previous steps against the local land use variables specific for each monitor. "Out-of-sample" 10-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions at each step. For all days without AOD values, model performance was excellent (mean "out-of-sample" R(2) = 0.81, year-to-year variation 0.79-0.84). Upon removal of outliers in the PM(2.5) monitoring data, the results of the cross validation procedure was even better (overall mean "out of sample"R(2) of 0.85). Further, cross validation results revealed no bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of observed vs predicted = 0.97-1.01). Our model allows one to reliably assess short-term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description and evaluation of meteorological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

2013-02-01

Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e. the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF)/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (WRF/Chem-MADRID) are conducted over western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, as well as the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°. Six simulated meteorological variables (i.e. temperature at 2 m (T2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), relative humidity at 2 m (RH2), wind speed at 10 m (WS10), wind direction at 10 m (WD10), and precipitation (Precip)) are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of T2, Q2, RH2, and WD10 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in WS10 and Precip even at 0.025°. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g. lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging), limitations in the physical parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer (e.g. cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments) as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget parameterizations (e.g. snow-related processes, subgrid-scale surface roughness elements, and urban canopy/heat island treatments and CO2 domes). While the use of finer grid resolutions of 0.125° and 0.025° shows some improvement for WS10, Precip, and some mesoscale events (e.g. strong forced convection and heavy precipitation), it does not significantly improve the overall statistical performance for all meteorological variables except for Precip. These results indicate a need to further improve the model representations of the above parameterizations at all scales.

Using survival analysis of artificial and Real Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri) nests to model site level and nest site factors associated with nest success in the South Okanagan region of Canada

Treesearch

Pam Krannitz Kym Welstead

2005-01-01

Predation is the predominant cause of nest failure for the Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri), a provincially red-listed shrub-steppe species that has experienced significant declines throughout most of its range. We monitored Brewer’s Sparrow nests and conducted an artificial nest experiment, in the South Okanagan Valley,...

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Excessive nest building is a unique behavioural phenotype in the deer mouse model of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Wolmarans, De Wet; Stein, Dan J; Harvey, Brian H

2016-09-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a phenotypically heterogeneous condition characterised by time-consuming intrusive thoughts and/or compulsions. Irrespective of the symptom type diagnosed, the severity of OCD is characterised by heterogeneity in symptom presentation that complicates diagnosis and treatment. Heterogeneity of symptoms would be invaluable in an animal model. Nest building behaviour forms part of the normal behavioural repertoire of rodents and demonstrates profound between-species differences. However, it has been proposed that within-species differences in nest building behaviour (i.e. aberrant vs. normal nest building) may resemble obsessive-compulsive-like symptoms. In an attempt to investigate whether other obsessive-compulsive-like behaviours are present in an animal model of OCD, or if aberrant nest building behaviour may represent a unique obsessive-compulsive phenotype in such a model, the current study assessed nest building behaviour in high (H, viz obsessive-compulsive) and non (N, viz normal) stereotypical deer mice. Subsequently, 12 N and H animals, respectively, were provided with an excess of cotton wool daily for one week prior to and following four weeks of high-dose oral escitalopram treatment (50 mg/kg/day). Data from the current investigation demonstrate daily nesting activity to be highly variable in deer mice, with stereotypy and nest building being independent behaviours. However, we identified unique aberrant large nest building behaviour in 30% of animals from both cohorts that was attenuated by escitalopram to pre-treatment nesting scores of the larger group. In summary, behavioural and drug-treatment evidence confirms that deer mouse behaviour does indeed resemble symptom heterogeneity related to OCD, and as such expands its face and predictive validity for the disorder. © The Author(s) 2016.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method for acoustic wave modeling in tilted transversely isotropic media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Chunlei; Stoffa, Paul L.

2012-01-01

Discrete earth models are commonly represented by uniform structured grids. In order to ensure accurate numerical description of all wave components propagating through these uniform grids, the grid size must be determined by the slowest velocity of the entire model. Consequently, high velocity areas are always oversampled, which inevitably increases the computational cost. A practical solution to this problem is to use nonuniform grids. We propose a nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method which utilizes nonuniform grids to obtain high efficiency and relies on implicit operators to achieve high accuracy. We present a simple way of deriving implicit finite difference operators of arbitrary stencil widths on general nonuniform grids for the first and second derivatives and, as a demonstration example, apply these operators to the pseudo-acoustic wave equation in tilted transversely isotropic (TTI) media. We propose an efficient gridding algorithm that can be used to convert uniformly sampled models onto vertically nonuniform grids. We use a 2D TTI salt model to demonstrate its effectiveness and show that the nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method can produce highly accurate seismic modeling results with enhanced efficiency, compared to uniform grid explicit finite difference implementations.

Dynamics of core accretion

DOE PAGES

Nelson, Andrew F.; Ruffert, Maximilian

2012-12-21

In this paper, we perform three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of gas flowing around a planetary core of mass M pl = 10M ⊕ embedded in a near Keplerian background flow, using a modified shearing box approximation. We assume an ideal gas behaviour following an equation of state with a fixed ratio of the specific heats, γ = 1.42, consistent with the conditions of a moderate-temperature background disc with solar composition. No radiative heating or cooling is included in the models. We employ a nested grid hydrodynamic code implementing the ‘Piecewise Parabolic Method’ with as many as six fixed nested grids, providingmore » spatial resolution on the finest grid comparable to the present-day diameters of Neptune and Uranus. We find that a strongly dynamically active flow develops such that no static envelope can form. The activity is not sensitive to plausible variations in the rotation curve of the underlying disc. It is sensitive to the thermodynamic treatment of the gas, as modelled by prescribed equations of state (either ‘locally isothermal’ or ‘locally isentropic’) and the temperature of the background disc material. The activity is also sensitive to the shape and depth of the core's gravitational potential, through its mass and gravitational softening coefficient. Each of these factors influences the magnitude and character of hydrodynamic feedback of the small-scale flow on the background, and we conclude that accurate modelling of such feedback is critical to a complete understanding of the core accretion process. The varying flow pattern gives rise to large, irregular eruptions of matter from the region around the core which return matter to the background flow: mass in the envelope at one time may not be found in the envelope at any later time. No net mass accretion into the envelope is observed over the course of the simulation and none is expected, due to our neglect of cooling. Except in cases of very rapid cooling however, as defined by locally isothermal or isentropic treatments, any cooling that does affect the envelope material will have limited consequences for the dynamics, since the flow quickly carries cooled material out of the core's environment entirely. The angular momentum of material in the envelope, relative to the core, varies both in magnitude and in sign on time-scales of days to months near the core and on time-scales a few years at distances comparable to the Hill radius. The dynamical activity contrasts with the largely static behaviour typically assumed within the framework of the core accretion model for Jovian planet formation. We show that material entering the dynamically active environment may suffer intense heating and cooling events the durations of which are as short as a few hours to a few days. Shorter durations are not observable in our work due to the limits of our resolution. Peak temperatures in these events range from T ~ 1000 K to as high as T ~ 3–4000 K, with densities ρ ~ 10 -9 to 10 -8 gcm -3. These time-scales, densities and temperatures span a range consistent with those required for chondrule formation in the nebular shock model. Finally, we therefore propose that dynamical activity in the Jovian planet formation environment could be responsible for the production of chondrules and other annealed silicates in the solar nebula.« less

Dynamics of core accretion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Andrew F.; Ruffert, Maximilian

2013-02-01

We perform three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of gas flowing around a planetary core of mass Mpl = 10M⊕ embedded in a near Keplerian background flow, using a modified shearing box approximation. We assume an ideal gas behaviour following an equation of state with a fixed ratio of the specific heats, γ = 1.42, consistent with the conditions of a moderate-temperature background disc with solar composition. No radiative heating or cooling is included in the models. We employ a nested grid hydrodynamic code implementing the `Piecewise Parabolic Method' with as many as six fixed nested grids, providing spatial resolution on the finest grid comparable to the present-day diameters of Neptune and Uranus. We find that a strongly dynamically active flow develops such that no static envelope can form. The activity is not sensitive to plausible variations in the rotation curve of the underlying disc. It is sensitive to the thermodynamic treatment of the gas, as modelled by prescribed equations of state (either `locally isothermal' or `locally isentropic') and the temperature of the background disc material. The activity is also sensitive to the shape and depth of the core's gravitational potential, through its mass and gravitational softening coefficient. Each of these factors influences the magnitude and character of hydrodynamic feedback of the small-scale flow on the background, and we conclude that accurate modelling of such feedback is critical to a complete understanding of the core accretion process. The varying flow pattern gives rise to large, irregular eruptions of matter from the region around the core which return matter to the background flow: mass in the envelope at one time may not be found in the envelope at any later time. No net mass accretion into the envelope is observed over the course of the simulation and none is expected, due to our neglect of cooling. Except in cases of very rapid cooling however, as defined by locally isothermal or isentropic treatments, any cooling that does affect the envelope material will have limited consequences for the dynamics, since the flow quickly carries cooled material out of the core's environment entirely. The angular momentum of material in the envelope, relative to the core, varies both in magnitude and in sign on time-scales of days to months near the core and on time-scales a few years at distances comparable to the Hill radius. The dynamical activity contrasts with the largely static behaviour typically assumed within the framework of the core accretion model for Jovian planet formation. We show that material entering the dynamically active environment may suffer intense heating and cooling events the durations of which are as short as a few hours to a few days. Shorter durations are not observable in our work due to the limits of our resolution. Peak temperatures in these events range from T ˜ 1000 K to as high as T ˜ 3-4000 K, with densities ρ ˜ 10-9 to 10-8 g cm-3. These time-scales, densities and temperatures span a range consistent with those required for chondrule formation in the nebular shock model. We therefore propose that dynamical activity in the Jovian planet formation environment could be responsible for the production of chondrules and other annealed silicates in the solar nebula.

A multiscale numerical study into the cascade of kinetic energy leading to severe local storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paine, D. A.; Kaplan, M. L.

1977-01-01

The cascade of kinetic energy from macro- through mesoscales is studied on the basis of a nested grid system used to solve a set of nonlinear differential equations. The kinetic energy cascade and the concentration of vorticity through the hydrodynamic spectrum provide a means for predicting the location and intensity of severe weather from large-scale data sets. A mechanism described by the surface pressure tendency equation proves to be important in explaining how initial middle-tropospheric mass-momentum imbalances alter the low-level pressure field.

Software Surface Modeling and Grid Generation Steering Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E. (Editor)

1992-01-01

It is a NASA objective to promote improvements in the capability and efficiency of computational fluid dynamics. Grid generation, the creation of a discrete representation of the solution domain, is an essential part of computational fluid dynamics. However, grid generation about complex boundaries requires sophisticated surface-model descriptions of the boundaries. The surface modeling and the associated computation of surface grids consume an extremely large percentage of the total time required for volume grid generation. Efficient and user friendly software systems for surface modeling and grid generation are critical for computational fluid dynamics to reach its potential. The papers presented here represent the state-of-the-art in software systems for surface modeling and grid generation. Several papers describe improved techniques for grid generation.

Impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Linlin; Liu, Yubao; Liu, Yuewei; Li, Lei; Jiang, Yin; Cheng, Will; Roux, Gregory

2015-12-01

This study investigates the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis, which employs the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) WRF (the weather research and forecasting model) based on climate FDDA (CFDDA) technology to develop an urban-scale microclimatology database for the Shenzhen area, a rapidly developing metropolitan located along the southern coast of China, where uniquely high-density observations, including ultrahigh-resolution surface AWS (automatic weather station) network, radio sounding, wind profilers, radiometers, and other weather observation platforms, have been installed. CFDDA is an innovative dynamical downscaling regional climate analysis system that assimilates diverse regional observations; and has been employed to produce a 5 year multiscale high-resolution microclimate analysis by assimilating high-density observations at Shenzhen area. The CFDDA system was configured with four nested-grid domains at grid sizes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km, respectively. This research evaluates the impact of assimilating high-resolution observation data on reproducing the refining features of urban-scale circulations. Two experiments were conducted with a 5 year run using CFSR (climate forecast system reanalysis) as boundary and initial conditions: one with CFDDA and the other without. The comparisons of these two experiments with observations indicate that CFDDA greatly reduces the model analysis error and is able to realistically analyze the microscale features such as urban-rural-coastal circulation, land/sea breezes, and local-hilly terrain thermal circulations. It is demonstrated that the urbanization can produce 2.5 k differences in 2 m temperatures, delays/speeds up the land/sea breeze development, and interacts with local mountain-valley circulations.

Development of design technique for vacuum insulation in large size multi-aperture multi-grid accelerator for nuclear fusion.

PubMed

Kojima, A; Hanada, M; Tobari, H; Nishikiori, R; Hiratsuka, J; Kashiwagi, M; Umeda, N; Yoshida, M; Ichikawa, M; Watanabe, K; Yamano, Y; Grisham, L R

2016-02-01

Design techniques for the vacuum insulation have been developed in order to realize a reliable voltage holding capability of multi-aperture multi-grid (MAMuG) accelerators for fusion application. In this method, the nested multi-stage configuration of the MAMuG accelerator can be uniquely designed to satisfy the target voltage within given boundary conditions. The evaluation of the voltage holding capabilities of each acceleration stages was based on the previous experimental results about the area effect and the multi-aperture effect. Since the multi-grid effect was found to be the extension of the area effect by the total facing area this time, the total voltage holding capability of the multi-stage can be estimated from that per single stage by assuming the stage with the highest electric field, the total facing area, and the total apertures. By applying these consideration, the analysis on the 3-stage MAMuG accelerator for JT-60SA agreed well with the past gap-scan experiments with an accuracy of less than 10% variation, which demonstrated the high reliability to design MAMuG accelerators and also multi-stage high voltage bushings.

Development of design technique for vacuum insulation in large size multi-aperture multi-grid accelerator for nuclear fusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kojima, A., E-mail: kojima.atsushi@jaea.go.jp; Hanada, M.; Tobari, H.

Design techniques for the vacuum insulation have been developed in order to realize a reliable voltage holding capability of multi-aperture multi-grid (MAMuG) accelerators for fusion application. In this method, the nested multi-stage configuration of the MAMuG accelerator can be uniquely designed to satisfy the target voltage within given boundary conditions. The evaluation of the voltage holding capabilities of each acceleration stages was based on the previous experimental results about the area effect and the multi-aperture effect. Since the multi-grid effect was found to be the extension of the area effect by the total facing area this time, the total voltagemore » holding capability of the multi-stage can be estimated from that per single stage by assuming the stage with the highest electric field, the total facing area, and the total apertures. By applying these consideration, the analysis on the 3-stage MAMuG accelerator for JT-60SA agreed well with the past gap-scan experiments with an accuracy of less than 10% variation, which demonstrated the high reliability to design MAMuG accelerators and also multi-stage high voltage bushings.« less

Wetland and microhabitat use by nesting four-toed salamanders in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalmers, R.J.; Loftin, C.S.

2006-01-01

Little is known of Four-Toed Salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) habitat use, despite the species' extensive range and elevated conservation status. We investigated species-habitat relationships that predict H. scutatum nesting presence in Maine at wetland and microhabitat scales by comparing microhabitats with and without nests. We created logistic regression models, selected models with AIC, and evaluated models with reserve data. Wetlands with nests were best predicted by shoreline microhabitat of Sphagnum spp., wood substrate, water flow, blue-joint reed grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), meadowsweet (Spiraea alba), steeplebush (Spiraea tomentosa), sensitive fern (Onoclea sensibilis), and absence of sheep laurel (Kalmia angustifolia) or deciduous forest canopy. Within occupied wetlands, shoreline microhabitat where nests occurred was best distinguished from available, unoccupied shoreline microhabitat by steeper shore, greater near-shore and basin water depth, deeper nesting vegetation, presence of moss spp. and winterberry (Ilex verticillata), and a negative association with S. alba, leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne calyculata), and K. angustifolia. These models of wetland and microhabitat use by H. scutatum may assist ecologists and managers in detecting and conserving this species. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

A Dynamic Evaluation Of A Model And An Estimate Of The Air Quality And Regional Climate Impacts Of Enhanced Solar Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, D.; Brown, N. J.; Zhai, P.; Menon, S.

2012-12-01

We use the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry) and pollutant emissions based on the EPA National Emission Inventories from 2005 and 2008 to model regional climate and air quality over the continental United States. Additionally, 2030 emission scenarios are developed to investigate the effects of future enhancements to solar power generation. Modeling covered 6 summer and 6 winter weeks each year. We model feedback between aerosols and meteorology and thus capture direct and indirect aerosol effects. The grid resolution is 25 km and includes no nesting. Between 2005 and 2008 significant emission reductions were reported in the National Emission Inventory. The 2008 weekday emissions over the continental U.S. of SO2 and NO were reduced from 2005 values by 28% and 16%, respectively. Emission reductions of this magnitude are similar in scale to the potential emission reductions from various energy policy initiatives. By evaluating modeled and observed air quality changes from 2005 to 2008, we analyze how well the model represents the effects of historical emission changes. We also gain insight into how well the model might predict the effects of future emission changes. In addition to direct comparisons of model outputs to ground and satellite observations, we compare observed differences between 2005 and 2008 to corresponding modeled differences. Modeling was extended to future scenarios (2030) to simulate air quality and regional climate effects of large-scale adoption of solar power. The 2030-year was selected to allow time for development of solar generation infrastructure. The 2030 emission scenario was scaled, with separate factors for different economic sectors, from the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. The changes to emissions caused by the introduction of large-scale solar power (here assumed to be 10% of total energy generation) are based on results from a parallel project that used an electricity grid model applied over multiple regions across the country. The regional climate and air quality effects of future large-scale solar power adoption are analyzed in the context of uncertainty quantified by the dynamic evaluation of the historical (2005 and 2008) WRF/Chem simulations.

SQL/NF Translator for the Triton Nested Relational Database System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

18as., Ohio .. 9~~ ~~ 1 4- AFIT/GCE/ENG/90D-05 SQL/Nk1 TRANSLATOR FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Craig William Schnepf Captain...FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technnlogy... systems . The SQL/NF query language used for the nested relationil model is an extension of the popular relational model query language SQL. The query

Noisy anthropogenic infrastructure interferes with alarm responses in Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis)

PubMed Central

Koper, Nicola

2018-01-01

Many birds rely on anti-predator communication to protect their nests; however, anthropogenic noise from industrial activities such as oil and gas development may disrupt acoustic communication. Here, we conducted acoustic playback experiments to determine whether Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) responded to conspecific alarm calls by delaying feeding visits, and whether this response was impaired by noise-producing natural gas compressor stations, generator- or grid-powered screw pump oil wells, and noise amplitude. We played alarm calls, and, as a control, western meadowlark songs, to Savannah sparrows as they approached their nests to feed their nestlings, and measured feeding latency. The greatest impacts on behaviour were detected at the noisiest treatment, compressor stations; feeding latency was shortened here compared with control sites, which may expose nests to greater predation risk. As noise amplitudes increased, Savannah sparrows took longer to feed following meadowlark playbacks, perhaps because noise interfered with interpretation of acoustic cues. The effects of compressor stations on anti-predator behaviour may be best explained by the distracting effects of anthropogenic noise, while increases in feeding latency following meadowlark playbacks may be explained by a heightened response threshold caused by acoustic masking. Industrial infrastructure can influence the reproductive success of wildlife through its impact on perception and interpretation of conspecific signals, but these effects are complex. PMID:29892404

Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2014-12-01

Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the earthquake occurs took about 2 minutes, which would be sufficient for a practical tsunami inundation predictions. In the presentation, the computational performance of our faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation model will be shown, and preferable tsunami wave source analysis for an accurate inundation prediction will also be discussed.

Predicting nest success from habitat features in aspen forests of the central Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Heather M. Struempf; Deborah M. Finch; Gregory Hayward; Stanley Anderson

2001-01-01

We collected nesting data on bird use of aspen stands in the Routt and Medicine Bow National Forests between 1987 and 1989. We found active nest sites of 28 species of small nongame birds on nine study plots in undisturbed aspen forests. We compared logistic regression models predicting nest success (at least one nestling) from nest-site or stand-level habitat...

Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiming

2015-04-01

We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

HELIOS-R: An Ultrafast, Open-Source Retrieval Code For Exoplanetary Atmosphere Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LAVIE, Baptiste

2015-12-01

Atmospheric retrieval is a growing, new approach in the theory of exoplanet atmosphere characterization. Unlike self-consistent modeling it allows us to fully explore the parameter space, as well as the degeneracies between the parameters using a Bayesian framework. We present HELIOS-R, a very fast retrieving code written in Python and optimized for GPU computation. Once it is ready, HELIOS-R will be the first open-source atmospheric retrieval code accessible to the exoplanet community. As the new generation of direct imaging instruments (SPHERE, GPI) have started to gather data, the first version of HELIOS-R focuses on emission spectra. We use a 1D two-stream forward model for computing fluxes and couple it to an analytical temperature-pressure profile that is constructed to be in radiative equilibrium. We use our ultra-fast opacity calculator HELIOS-K (also open-source) to compute the opacities of CO2, H2O, CO and CH4 from the HITEMP database. We test both opacity sampling (which is typically used by other workers) and the method of k-distributions. Using this setup, we compute a grid of synthetic spectra and temperature-pressure profiles, which is then explored using a nested sampling algorithm. By focusing on model selection (Occam’s razor) through the explicit computation of the Bayesian evidence, nested sampling allows us to deal with current sparse data as well as upcoming high-resolution observations. Once the best model is selected, HELIOS-R provides posterior distributions of the parameters. As a test for our code we studied HR8799 system and compared our results with the previous analysis of Lee, Heng & Irwin (2013), which used the proprietary NEMESIS retrieval code. HELIOS-R and HELIOS-K are part of the set of open-source community codes we named the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

Bulgarian emergency responce system for release of hazardous pollutants - design and first test of the preparedness mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganev, Kostadin; Todorova, Angelina; Jordanov, Georgi; Gadzhev, Georgi; Syrakov, Dimiter; Miloshev, Nikolai; Prodanova, Maria

2010-05-01

The NATO SfP N 981393 project aims at developing of a unified Balkan region oriented modelling system for operational response to accidental releases of harmful gases in the atmosphere, which would be able to: 1.Perform highly acurate and reliable risk analysis and assessment for selected "hot spots"; 2.Support the emergency fast decisions with short-term regional scale forecast of the propagation of harmful gasesin case of accidental release; 3.Perform, in an off-line mode, a more detailed and comprehensive analysis of the possible longer-term impacts on the environment and human health and make the results available to the authorities and the public. The present paper describes the set up and the testing of the system, mainly focusing on the risk analysis mode. The modeling tool used in the system is the US EPA Models-3 System: WRF, CMAQ and SMOKE (partly). The CB05 toxic chemical mechanism, including chlorine reactions, is employed. The emission input exploits the high-resolution TNO emission inventory. The meteorological pre-processor WRF is driven by NCAR Final Reanalysis data and performs calculations in 3 nested domains, covering respectively the regions of South-Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and the area surrounding the particular site. The risk assessment for the region of "Vereja Him" factory, Jambol, Bulgaria is performed on the basis of one-year long model calculations. The calculations with CMAQ chemical transport model are performed for the two inner domains. An ammount of 25 tons of chlorine is released two times daily in the innermost domain, and sepаrate calculations are performed for every release. The results are averaged over one year in order to evaluate the probability of exceeding some regulatory treshold value in each grid point. The completion of this task in a relatively short period of time was made possible by using the newly developed Grid computational environment, which allows for shared use of facilities in the research community.

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby

2017-01-01

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

Estimation of Regional Net CO2 Exchange over the Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biraud, S. C.; Riley, W. J.; Fischer, M. L.; Torn, M. S.; Cooley, H. S.

2004-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed ecosystem CO2 exchange is an important component of the North American Carbon Program. We describe here a methodology to estimate Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) over the Southern Great Plains, using: (1) data from the Department Of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Kansas; (2) meteorological forcing data from the Mesonet facilities; (3) soil and vegetation types from 1 km resolution USGS databases; (4) vegetation status (e.g., LAI) from 1 km satellite measurements of surface reflectance (MODIS); (5) a tested land-surface model; and (6) a coupled land-surface and meteorological model (MM5/ISOLSM). This framework allows us to simulate regional surface fluxes in addition to ABL and free troposphere concentrations of CO2 at a continental scale with fine-scale nested grids centered on the ARM central facility. We use the offline land-surface and coupled models to estimate regional NEE, and compare predictions to measurements from the 9 Extended Facility sites with eddy correlation measurements. Site level comparisons to portable ECOR measurements in several crop types are also presented. Our approach also allows us to extend bottom-up estimates to periods and areas where meteorological forcing data are unavailable.

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mailhot, J.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Giguère, A.; McTaggart-Cowan, R.; Erfani, A.; Denis, B.; Glazer, A.; Vallée, M.

2014-01-01

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM-LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.

Evaluation of aerosol optical properties of GEOS-Chem over East Asia during the DRAGON-Asia 2012 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, D. S.; Park, R.; Kim, J.

2015-12-01

A nested version of 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem v9-01-02) is evaluated over East Asia during the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON)-Asia 2012 campaign period, focusing on fine-mode aerosol optical depth (fAOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA). Both are important to assess the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on climate. We compare the daily mean simulated optical properties of aerosols with the observations from DRAGON-Asia campaign for March-May, 2012 (provided in level 2.0: cloud screened and quality assured). We find that the model reproduces the observed daily variability of fAOD (R=0.67), but overestimates the magnitude by 30%, which is in general consistent with other global model comparisons from ACCMIP. However, a significant high bias in the model is found compared to the observed SSA at 440 nm, which is important for determining the sign of aerosol radiative forcing. In order to understand causes for this gap we conduct several sensitivity tests by changing source magnitudes and input parameters of aerosols, affecting the aerosol optical properties under various atmospheric conditions, which allows us to reduce the gap and to find the optimal values in the model.

An objective decision model of power grid environmental protection based on environmental influence index and energy-saving and emission-reducing index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jun-shu; Jin, Yan-ming; Hao, Wei-hua

2017-01-01

Based on modelling the environmental influence index of power transmission and transformation project and energy-saving and emission-reducing index of source-grid-load of power system, this paper establishes an objective decision model of power grid environmental protection, with constraints of power grid environmental protection objectives being legal and economical, and considering both positive and negative influences of grid on the environmental in all-life grid cycle. This model can be used to guide the programming work of power grid environmental protection. A numerical simulation of Jiangsu province’s power grid environmental protection objective decision model has been operated, and the results shows that the maximum goal of energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits would be reached firstly as investment increasing, and then the minimum goal of environmental influence.

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

Surface Modeling and Grid Generation of Orbital Sciences X34 Vehicle. Phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.

1997-01-01

The surface modeling and grid generation requirements, motivations, and methods used to develop Computational Fluid Dynamic volume grids for the X34-Phase 1 are presented. The requirements set forth by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center serve as the basis for the final techniques used in the construction of all volume grids, including grids for parametric studies of the X34. The Integrated Computer Engineering and Manufacturing code for Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICEM/CFD), the Grid Generation code (GRIDGEN), the Three-Dimensional Multi-block Advanced Grid Generation System (3DMAGGS) code, and Volume Grid Manipulator (VGM) code are used to enable the necessary surface modeling, surface grid generation, volume grid generation, and grid alterations, respectively. All volume grids generated for the X34, as outlined in this paper, were used for CFD simulations within the Aerothermodynamics Branch.

Nest sanitation elicits egg discrimination in cuckoo hosts.

PubMed

Yang, Canchao; Chen, Min; Wang, Longwu; Liang, Wei; Møller, Anders Pape

2015-11-01

Nest sanitation is a nearly universal behavior in birds, while egg discrimination is a more specific adaptation that has evolved to counter brood parasitism. These two behaviors are closely related with nest sanitation being the ancestral behavior, and it has been hypothesized to constitute a preadaptation for egg discrimination. However, previous studies found little evidence to support this hypothesis. Here, we conducted an empirical test of the association between nest sanitation and egg discrimination in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) by inserting a single non-mimetic model egg or a non-mimetic model egg plus half a peanut shell into host nests. Compared to the rejection rate of single model eggs, barn swallows significantly increased egg rejection frequency if a half peanut shell was simultaneously introduced. Our result for the first time shows the impact of nest sanitation on egg discrimination and demonstrates that nest sanitation can elicit egg discrimination in hosts of brood parasites. This study provided evidence for nest sanitation being a preadaptation to egg discrimination by facilitating egg rejection, thereby significantly advancing our understanding of avian cognition of foreign objects. Furthermore, we suggest that egg discrimination behavior in many accepters and intermediate rejecters may be lost or diluted. Such egg discrimination can be elicited and restored after nest sanitation, implying a sensitive and rapid phenotypic response to increased risk of parasitism. Our study offers a novel perspective for investigating the role of so-called intermediate rejecter individuals or species in the long-term coevolutionary cycle between brood parasites and their hosts.

Evaluation of grid generation technologies from an applied perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hufford, Gary S.; Harrand, Vincent J.; Patel, Bhavin C.; Mitchell, Curtis R.

1995-01-01

An analysis of the grid generation process from the point of view of an applied CFD engineer is given. Issues addressed include geometric modeling, structured grid generation, unstructured grid generation, hybrid grid generation and use of virtual parts libraries in large parametric analysis projects. The analysis is geared towards comparing the effective turn around time for specific grid generation and CFD projects. The conclusion was made that a single grid generation methodology is not universally suited for all CFD applications due to both limitations in grid generation and flow solver technology. A new geometric modeling and grid generation tool, CFD-GEOM, is introduced to effectively integrate the geometric modeling process to the various grid generation methodologies including structured, unstructured, and hybrid procedures. The full integration of the geometric modeling and grid generation allows implementation of extremely efficient updating procedures, a necessary requirement for large parametric analysis projects. The concept of using virtual parts libraries in conjunction with hybrid grids for large parametric analysis projects is also introduced to improve the efficiency of the applied CFD engineer.

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed-species colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brussee, Brianne E.; Coates, Peter S.; Hothem, Roger L.; Howe, Kristy; Casazza, Michael L.; Eadie, John M.

2016-01-01

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in-depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black-crowned Night-Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video-monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3-year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model-averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24-h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night-Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed-species colony with Night-Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2-year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night-Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night-Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.

Morning Nest Arrivals in Cowbird Hosts: their Role in Aggression, Cowbird Recognition, and Host Response to Parasitism

Treesearch

Dirk E. Burhans

2000-01-01

Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea) nesting in old-field habitats in central Missouri are parasitized at least four times as often as Field Sparrows. I used model cowbirds placed near nests to test if host aggression explained this difference. Although both Field Sparrows and Indigo Buntings responded to Brown-headed Cowbird models with significantly...

The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, S. V.

2016-02-01

Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast" and "Development of Technology for CO2 Marine Geological Storage". We also thank to the administrative supports of the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of the Seoul National University.

Construction of nested maximin designs based on successive local enumeration and modified novel global harmony search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Jin; Li, Xinyu; Xiao, Mi; Xu, Junnan; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

Engineering design often involves different types of simulation, which results in expensive computational costs. Variable fidelity approximation-based design optimization approaches can realize effective simulation and efficiency optimization of the design space using approximation models with different levels of fidelity and have been widely used in different fields. As the foundations of variable fidelity approximation models, the selection of sample points of variable-fidelity approximation, called nested designs, is essential. In this article a novel nested maximin Latin hypercube design is constructed based on successive local enumeration and a modified novel global harmony search algorithm. In the proposed nested designs, successive local enumeration is employed to select sample points for a low-fidelity model, whereas the modified novel global harmony search algorithm is employed to select sample points for a high-fidelity model. A comparative study with multiple criteria and an engineering application are employed to verify the efficiency of the proposed nested designs approach.

On the use of Schwarz-Christoffel conformal mappings to the grid generation for global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2015-02-01

In this article we propose two conformal mapping based grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithms are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the basic grid design problem of pole relocation, these new algorithms also address more advanced issues such as smoothed scaling factor, or the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling where complex land-ocean distribution is present.

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Predation as a landscape effect: the trading off by prey species between predation risks and protection benefits.

PubMed

Mönkkönen, M; Husby, M; Tornberg, R; Helle, P; Thomson, R L

2007-05-01

1. Predators impose costs on their prey but may also provide benefits such as protection against other (e.g. nest) predators. The optimal breeding location in relation to the distance from a nesting raptor varies so as to minimize the sum of costs of adult and nest predation. We provide a conceptual model to account for variation in the relative predation risks and derive qualitative predictions for how different prey species should respond to the distance from goshawk Accipiter gentilis nests. 2. We test the model predictions using a comprehensive collection of data from northern Finland and central Norway. First, we carried out a series of experiments with artificial bird nests to test if goshawks may provide protection against nest predation. Second, we conducted standard bird censuses and nest-box experiments to detect how the density or territory occupancy of several prey species varies with distance from the nearest goshawk nest. 3. Nest predation rate increased with distance from goshawk nest indicating that goshawks may provide protection for birds' nests against nest predation. Abundance (or probability of presence) of the main prey species of goshawks peaked at intermediate distances from goshawk nests, reflecting the trade-off. The abundance of small songbird species decreased with distance from goshawk nests. The goshawk poses little risk to small songbirds and they may benefit from goshawk proximity in protection against nest predation. Finally, no pattern with distance in pied flycatcher territory (nest box) occupation rate or the onset of egg-laying was detected. This is expected, as flycatchers neither suffer from marked nest predation risk nor are favoured goshawk prey. 4. Our results suggest that territory location in relation to the nest of a predator is a trade-off situation where adult birds weigh the risk of themselves being predated against the benefits accrued from increased nest survival. Prey species appear able to detect and measure alternative predation risks, and respond adaptively. From the prey perspective, the landscape is a mosaic of habitat patches the quality of which varies according to structural and floristic features, but also to the spatial distribution of predators.

Air Quality Modeling for the Urban Jackson, Mississippi Region Using a High Resolution WRF/Chem Model

PubMed Central

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata B.; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Challa, Srinivas V.; Young, John H.; Patrick, Chuck; Baham, Julius M.; Hughes, Robert L.; Yerramilli, Sudha; Tuluri, Francis; Hardy, Mark G.; Swanier, Shelton J.

2011-01-01

In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the air quality with reference to ozone over the Jackson (Mississippi) region using an online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting–Chemistry) model. The WRF/Chem model has the advantages of the integration of the meteorological and chemistry modules with the same computational grid and same physical parameterizations and includes the feedback between the atmospheric chemistry and physical processes. The model was designed to have three nested domains with the inner-most domain covering the study region with a resolution of 1 km. The model was integrated for 48 hours continuously starting from 0000 UTC of 6 June 2006 and the evolution of surface ozone and other precursor pollutants were analyzed. The model simulated atmospheric flow fields and distributions of NO2 and O3 were evaluated for each of the three different time periods. The GIS based spatial distribution maps for ozone, its precursors NO, NO2, CO and HONO and the back trajectories indicate that all the mobile sources in Jackson, Ridgeland and Madison contributing significantly for their formation. The present study demonstrates the applicability of WRF/Chem model to generate quantitative information at high spatial and temporal resolution for the development of decision support systems for air quality regulatory agencies and health administrators. PMID:21776240

Grid2: A Program for Rapid Estimation of the Jovian Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, R. W.; Brinza, D. E.

2014-01-01

Grid2 is a program that utilizes the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model 2 (GIRE2) Jovian radiation model to compute fluences and doses for Jupiter missions. (Note: The iterations of these two softwares have been GIRE and GIRE2; likewise Grid and Grid2.) While GIRE2 is an important improvement over the original GIRE radiation model, the GIRE2 model can take as long as a day or more to compute these quantities for a complete mission. Grid2 fits the results of the detailed GIRE2 code with a set of grids in local time and position thereby greatly speeding up the execution of the model-minutes as opposed to days. The Grid2 model covers the time period from 1971 to 2050 and distances of 1.03 to 30 Jovian diameters (Rj). It is available as a direct-access database through a FORTRAN interface program. The new database is only slightly larger than the original grid version: 1.5 gigabytes (GB) versus 1.2 GB.

Nested Logit Models for Multiple-Choice Item Response Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suh, Youngsuk; Bolt, Daniel M.

2010-01-01

Nested logit item response models for multiple-choice data are presented. Relative to previous models, the new models are suggested to provide a better approximation to multiple-choice items where the application of a solution strategy precedes consideration of response options. In practice, the models also accommodate collapsibility across all…

Spatial Ecology of Estuarine Crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) Nesting in a Fragmented Landscape.

PubMed

Evans, Luke J; Jones, T Hefin; Pang, Keeyen; Saimin, Silvester; Goossens, Benoit

2016-09-19

The role that oil palm plays in the Lower Kinabatangan region of Eastern Sabah is of considerable scientific and conservation interest, providing a model habitat for many tropical regions as they become increasingly fragmented. Crocodilians, as apex predators, widely distributed throughout the tropics, are ideal indicator species for ecosystem health. Drones (or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) were used to identify crocodile nests in a fragmented landscape. Flights were targeted through the use of fuzzy overlay models and nests located primarily in areas indicated as suitable habitat. Nests displayed a number of similarities in terms of habitat characteristics allowing for refined modelling of survey locations. As well as being more cost-effective compared to traditional methods of nesting survey, the use of drones also enabled a larger survey area to be completed albeit with a limited number of flights. The study provides a methodology for targeted nest surveying, as well as a low-cost repeatable flight methodology. This approach has potential for widespread applicability across a range of species and for a variety of study designs.

Spatial Ecology of Estuarine Crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) Nesting in a Fragmented Landscape

PubMed Central

Evans, Luke J.; Jones, T. Hefin; Pang, Keeyen; Saimin, Silvester; Goossens, Benoit

2016-01-01

The role that oil palm plays in the Lower Kinabatangan region of Eastern Sabah is of considerable scientific and conservation interest, providing a model habitat for many tropical regions as they become increasingly fragmented. Crocodilians, as apex predators, widely distributed throughout the tropics, are ideal indicator species for ecosystem health. Drones (or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) were used to identify crocodile nests in a fragmented landscape. Flights were targeted through the use of fuzzy overlay models and nests located primarily in areas indicated as suitable habitat. Nests displayed a number of similarities in terms of habitat characteristics allowing for refined modelling of survey locations. As well as being more cost-effective compared to traditional methods of nesting survey, the use of drones also enabled a larger survey area to be completed albeit with a limited number of flights. The study provides a methodology for targeted nest surveying, as well as a low-cost repeatable flight methodology. This approach has potential for widespread applicability across a range of species and for a variety of study designs. PMID:27657065

A Primer for Analyzing Nested Data: Multilevel Modeling in SPSS Using an Example from a REL Study. REL 2015-046

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Dwyer, Laura M.; Parker, Caroline E.

2014-01-01

Analyzing data that possess some form of nesting is often challenging for applied researchers or district staff who are involved in or in charge of conducting data analyses. This report provides a description of the challenges for analyzing nested data and provides a primer of how multilevel regression modeling may be used to resolve these…

Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

Treesearch

Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

2005-01-01

The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

INITIAL APPL;ICATION OF THE ADAPTIVE GRID AIR POLLUTION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses an adaptive-grid algorithm used in air pollution models. The algorithm reduces errors related to insufficient grid resolution by automatically refining the grid scales in regions of high interest. Meanwhile the grid scales are coarsened in other parts of the d...

Variability in individual assessment behaviour and its implications for collective decision-making.

PubMed

O'Shea-Wheller, Thomas A; Masuda, Naoki; Sendova-Franks, Ana B; Franks, Nigel R

2017-02-08

Self-organized systems of collective behaviour have been demonstrated in a number of group-living organisms. There is, however, less research relating to how variation in individual assessments may facilitate group decision-making. Here, we investigate this using the decentralized system of collective nest choice behaviour employed by the ant Temnothorax albipennis, combining experimental results with computational modelling. In experiments, isolated workers of this species were allowed to investigate new nest sites of differing quality, and it was found that for any given nest quality, there was wide variation among individuals in the durations that they spent within each nest site. Additionally, individual workers were consistent in spending more time in nest sites of higher quality, and less time in those of lower quality. Hence, the time spent in a new nest site must have included an assessment of nest quality. As nest site visit durations (henceforth termed assessment durations) are linked to recruitment, it is possible that the variability we observed may influence the collective decision-making process of colonies. Thus, we explored this further using a computational model of nest site selection, and found that heterogeneous nest assessments conferred a number of potential benefits. Furthermore, our experiments showed that nest quality assessments were flexible, being influenced by experience of prior options. Our findings help to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying group behaviour, and highlight the importance of heterogeneity among individuals, rather than precise calibration, in shaping collective decision-making. © 2017 The Author(s).

Nest survival of piping plovers at a dynamic reservoir indicates an ecological trap for a threatened population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2012-01-01

In the past 60 years, reservoirs have reshaped riverine ecosystems and transformed breeding habitats used by the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). Currently, 29% of the Northern Great Plains plover population nests at reservoirs that might function as ecological traps because reservoirs have more diverse habitat features and greater dynamics in water levels than habitats historically used by breeding plovers. We examined factors influencing daily survival rates (DSR) of 346 plover nests at Lake Sakakawea (SAK; reservoir) during 2006–2009 by evaluating multiple a priori models, and we used our best model to hindcast nest success of plovers during 1985–2009. Our observed and hindcast estimates of nest success were low compared to published estimates. Previous findings indicate that plovers prefer nest sites that are low relative to water level. We found that elevation of nests above the water level had a strong positive correlation with DSR because water levels of SAK typically increased throughout the nesting period. Habitat characteristics on the reservoir differ from those that shaped nest-site selection for plovers. Accordingly, extraordinary nest loss occurs there in many years, largely due to inundation of nests, and based on low fledging rates those losses were not compensated by potential changes in chick survival. Therefore, our example supports the concept of ecological traps in birds because it addresses quantitative assessments of habitat preference and productivity over 25 years (since species listing) and affects a large portion of the population.

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

Grid2: A Program for Rapid Estimation of the Jovian Radiation Environment: A Numeric Implementation of the GIRE2 Jovian Radiation Model for Estimating Trapped Radiation for Mission Concept Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, R. W.; Brinza, D. E.

2014-01-01

Grid2 is a program that utilizes the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model 2 (GIRE2) Jovian radiation model to compute fluences and doses for Jupiter missions. (Note: The iterations of these two softwares have been GIRE and GIRE2; likewise Grid and Grid2.) While GIRE2 is an important improvement over the original GIRE radiation model, the GIRE2 model can take as long as a day or more to compute these quantities for a complete mission. Grid2 fits the results of the detailed GIRE2 code with a set of grids in local time and position thereby greatly speeding up the execution of the model--minutes as opposed to days. The Grid2 model covers the time period from 1971 to 2050and distances of 1.03 to 30 Jovian diameters (Rj). It is available as a direct-access database through a FORTRAN interface program. The new database is only slightly larger than the original grid version: 1.5 gigabytes (GB) versus 1.2 GB.

A Ground-Nesting Galliform's Response to Thermal Heterogeneity: Implications for Ground-Dwelling Birds.

PubMed

Carroll, J Matthew; Davis, Craig A; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D

2015-01-01

The habitat selection choices that individuals make in response to thermal environments influence both survival and reproduction. Importantly, the way that organisms behaviorally respond to thermal environments depends on the availability and juxtaposition of sites affording tolerable or preferred microclimates. Although, ground nesting birds are especially susceptible to heat extremes across many reproductive stages (i.e., breeding, nesting, brood rearing), the mechanistic drivers of nest site selection for these species are not well established from a thermal perspective. Our goal was to assess nest site selection relative to the configuration of the thermal landscape by quantifying thermal environments available to a ground-nesting bird species inhabiting a climatically stressful environment. Using northern bobwhite (Colinus virginanus) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at 87 nests, 87 paired sites and 205 random landscape sites in Western Oklahoma during spring and summer 2013 and 2014. We found that thermal space within the study area exhibited differences in Tbb of up to 40°C during peak diurnal heating, resulting in a diverse thermal landscape available to ground-nesting birds. Within this thermally heterogeneous landscape, nest sites moderated Tbb by more than 12°C compared to random landscape sites. Furthermore, successful nests remained on average 6°C cooler than unsuccessful nests on days experiencing ambient temperatures ≥ 39°C. Models of future Tbb associated with 2080 climate change projections indicate that nesting bobwhites will face substantially greater Tbb throughout the landscape for longer durations, placing an even greater importance on thermal choices for nest sites in the future. These results highlight the capacity of landscape features to act as moderators of thermal extremes and demonstrate how thermal complexity at organism-specific scales can dictate habitat selection.

Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

2018-03-01

Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

Model study of meteorology and photochemical air pollution over un urban area in south-eastern France (ESCOMPTE campaign).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.

2003-04-01

The ESCOMPTE Campaign has been conducted over Southern France (Provence region including the Marseille, Aix and Toulon cities and the Fos-Berre industrial center) in June and July of 2001. In order to study the redistribution of the pollutants emitted by anthropic and biogenic emissions and their impact on the atmospheric chemistry, we used meso-scale modeling (RAMS model, paralleled version 4.3, coupled on line with chemical modules : MOCA2.2 (Poulet et al, 2002) including 29 gaseous species). The hourly high resolution emissions were obtained from ESCOMPTE database (Ponche et al, 2002). The model was coupled with the dry deposition scheme (Walmsley and Weseley,1996). In this particular case of complex circulation (sea breeze associated with topography), the processes involving peaks of pollution were strongly non linear, and the meso scale modeling coupled on line with chemistry module was an essential step for a realistic redistribution of chemical species. Two nested grids satisfactorily describe the synoptic dynamics and the sea breeze circulations. The ECMWF meteorological fields provide the initial and boundary conditions. Different events characterized by various meteorological situations were simulated. Meteorological fields retrieved by modeling, also Modeled ozone, NOx, CO and SO2 concentrations, were compared with balloons, lidars, aircrafts and surface stations measurements. The chemistry regimes were explained according to the distribution of plumes. The stratified layers were examined.

Hurricane disturbance benefits nesting American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Theodore R.; Schulte, Shiloh A.

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activity, introduced species, sea level rise, and storm activity. Hurricanes are a powerful destructive force, but can also renew coastal habitats. In 2003, Hurricane Isabel altered the barrier islands of North Carolina, flattening dunes and creating sand flats. American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) are large shorebirds that inhabit the coastal zone throughout the year. Alternative survival models were evaluated for 699 American Oystercatcher nests on North Core Banks and South Core Banks, North Carolina, USA, from 1999–2007. Nest survival on North Core Banks increased from 0.170 (SE = 0.002) to 0.772 (SE = 0.090) after the hurricane, with a carry-over effect lasting 2 years. A simple year effects model described nest survival on South Core Banks. Habitat had no effect on survival except when the overall rate of nest survival was at intermediate levels (0.300–0.600), when nests on open flats survived at a higher rate (0.600; SE = 0.112) than nests in dune habitat (0.243; SE = 0.094). Predator activity declined on North Core Banks after the hurricane and corresponded with an increase in nest survival. Periodic years with elevated nest survival may offset low annual productivity and contribute to the stability of American Oystercatcher populations.

Assessing species distribution using Google Street View: a pilot study with the Pine Processionary Moth.

PubMed

Rousselet, Jérôme; Imbert, Charles-Edouard; Dekri, Anissa; Garcia, Jacques; Goussard, Francis; Vincent, Bruno; Denux, Olivier; Robinet, Christelle; Dorkeld, Franck; Roques, Alain; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Mapping species spatial distribution using spatial inference and prediction requires a lot of data. Occurrence data are generally not easily available from the literature and are very time-consuming to collect in the field. For that reason, we designed a survey to explore to which extent large-scale databases such as Google maps and Google Street View could be used to derive valid occurrence data. We worked with the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) Thaumetopoea pityocampa because the larvae of that moth build silk nests that are easily visible. The presence of the species at one location can therefore be inferred from visual records derived from the panoramic views available from Google Street View. We designed a standardized procedure allowing evaluating the presence of the PPM on a sampling grid covering the landscape under study. The outputs were compared to field data. We investigated two landscapes using grids of different extent and mesh size. Data derived from Google Street View were highly similar to field data in the large-scale analysis based on a square grid with a mesh of 16 km (96% of matching records). Using a 2 km mesh size led to a strong divergence between field and Google-derived data (46% of matching records). We conclude that Google database might provide useful occurrence data for mapping the distribution of species which presence can be visually evaluated such as the PPM. However, the accuracy of the output strongly depends on the spatial scales considered and on the sampling grid used. Other factors such as the coverage of Google Street View network with regards to sampling grid size and the spatial distribution of host trees with regards to road network may also be determinant.

Assessing Species Distribution Using Google Street View: A Pilot Study with the Pine Processionary Moth

PubMed Central

Dekri, Anissa; Garcia, Jacques; Goussard, Francis; Vincent, Bruno; Denux, Olivier; Robinet, Christelle; Dorkeld, Franck; Roques, Alain; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Mapping species spatial distribution using spatial inference and prediction requires a lot of data. Occurrence data are generally not easily available from the literature and are very time-consuming to collect in the field. For that reason, we designed a survey to explore to which extent large-scale databases such as Google maps and Google street view could be used to derive valid occurrence data. We worked with the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) Thaumetopoea pityocampa because the larvae of that moth build silk nests that are easily visible. The presence of the species at one location can therefore be inferred from visual records derived from the panoramic views available from Google street view. We designed a standardized procedure allowing evaluating the presence of the PPM on a sampling grid covering the landscape under study. The outputs were compared to field data. We investigated two landscapes using grids of different extent and mesh size. Data derived from Google street view were highly similar to field data in the large-scale analysis based on a square grid with a mesh of 16 km (96% of matching records). Using a 2 km mesh size led to a strong divergence between field and Google-derived data (46% of matching records). We conclude that Google database might provide useful occurrence data for mapping the distribution of species which presence can be visually evaluated such as the PPM. However, the accuracy of the output strongly depends on the spatial scales considered and on the sampling grid used. Other factors such as the coverage of Google street view network with regards to sampling grid size and the spatial distribution of host trees with regards to road network may also be determinant. PMID:24130675

Performance of the operational high-resolution numerical weather predictions of the Daphne project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stelios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

In the framework of the DAPHNE project, the Department of Meteorology and Climatology (http://meteo.geo.auth.gr) of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, utilizes the nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW) in order to produce high-resolution weather forecasts over Thessaly in central Greece. The aim of the DAPHNE project is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification. Cloud seeding assists the convective clouds to produce rain more efficiently or reduce hailstone size in favour of raindrops. The most favourable conditions for such a weather modification program in Thessaly occur in the period from March to October when convective clouds are triggered more frequently. Three model domains, using 2-way telescoping nesting, cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa (D01), ii) Greece (D02) and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (D03; at selected periods) at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively. This research work intents to describe the atmospheric model setup and analyse its performance during a selected period of the operational phase of the project. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts is performed using surface observations, gridded fields and radar data. Well established point verification methods combined with novel object based upon these methods, provide in depth analysis of the model skill. Spatial characteristics are adequately captured but a variable time lag between forecast and observation is noted. Acknowledgments: This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013)

Grid-size dependence of Cauchy boundary conditions used to simulate stream-aquifer interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mehl, S.; Hill, M.C.

2010-01-01

This work examines the simulation of stream–aquifer interactions as grids are refined vertically and horizontally and suggests that traditional methods for calculating conductance can produce inappropriate values when the grid size is changed. Instead, different grid resolutions require different estimated values. Grid refinement strategies considered include global refinement of the entire model and local refinement of part of the stream. Three methods of calculating the conductance of the Cauchy boundary conditions are investigated. Single- and multi-layer models with narrow and wide streams produced stream leakages that differ by as much as 122% as the grid is refined. Similar results occur for globally and locally refined grids, but the latter required as little as one-quarter the computer execution time and memory and thus are useful for addressing some scale issues of stream–aquifer interactions. Results suggest that existing grid-size criteria for simulating stream–aquifer interactions are useful for one-layer models, but inadequate for three-dimensional models. The grid dependence of the conductance terms suggests that values for refined models using, for example, finite difference or finite-element methods, cannot be determined from previous coarse-grid models or field measurements. Our examples demonstrate the need for a method of obtaining conductances that can be translated to different grid resolutions and provide definitive test cases for investigating alternative conductance formulations.

The eGo grid model: An open-source and open-data based synthetic medium-voltage grid model for distribution power supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amme, J.; Pleßmann, G.; Bühler, J.; Hülk, L.; Kötter, E.; Schwaegerl, P.

2018-02-01

The increasing integration of renewable energy into the electricity supply system creates new challenges for distribution grids. The planning and operation of distribution systems requires appropriate grid models that consider the heterogeneity of existing grids. In this paper, we describe a novel method to generate synthetic medium-voltage (MV) grids, which we applied in our DIstribution Network GeneratOr (DINGO). DINGO is open-source software and uses freely available data. Medium-voltage grid topologies are synthesized based on location and electricity demand in defined demand areas. For this purpose, we use GIS data containing demand areas with high-resolution spatial data on physical properties, land use, energy, and demography. The grid topology is treated as a capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) combined with a local search metaheuristics. We also consider the current planning principles for MV distribution networks, paying special attention to line congestion and voltage limit violations. In the modelling process, we included power flow calculations for validation. The resulting grid model datasets contain 3608 synthetic MV grids in high resolution, covering all of Germany and taking local characteristics into account. We compared the modelled networks with real network data. In terms of number of transformers and total cable length, we conclude that the method presented in this paper generates realistic grids that could be used to implement a cost-optimised electrical energy system.

High resolution simulations on the North Aegean Sea seasonal circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, V. H.; Barbopoulos, K.

2003-01-01

The seasonal characteristics of the circulation in the North Aegean Sea are examined with the aid of a climatological type simulation (three-year run with perpetual year forcing) on a fine resolution grid (2.5 km by 2.5 km). The model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model with a parameterisation of plume dynamics that is employed for the input of waters with hydrographic properties that are different than the properties of basin waters, as the Black Sea Water (BSW) outflow through the Dardanelles Strait and riverine sources. The model is nested with a sequence of coarser regional and basin-wide models that provide for the long-term interaction between the study area and the Eastern Mediterranean at large. The results are employed to discuss the response of the North Aegean to the important circulation forcing mechanisms in the region, namely wind stress, heat and salt fluxes, buoyancy due to rivers and the BSW outflow (which is low in salinity and occasionally low in temperature) and the interaction with the Southern Aegean. The high resolution allows for the detailed representation of the complicated topography that presides in the region. This helps produce a rich eddy field and it allows for variability in the pathways of BSW that has implications in the basin hydrography and circulation.

Impact of Variable SST on Simulated Warm Season Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleeby, S. M.; Cotton, W. R.

2007-05-01

The Colorado State University - Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CSU-RAMS) is being used to examine the variability in monsoon-related warm season precipitation over Mexico and the United States due to variability in SST. Given recent improvements and increased resolution in satellite derived SSTs it is pertinent to examine the sensitivity of the RAMS model to the variety of SST data sources that are available. In particular, we are examining this dependence across continental scales over the full warm season, as well as across the regional scale centered around the Gulf of California on time scales of individual surge events. In this study we performed an ensemble of simulations that include the 2002, 2003, and 2004 warm seasons with use of the Climatology, Reynold's, AVHRR, and MODIS SSTs. From the seasonal 90-day simulations with 30km grid spacing, it was found that variations in surface latent heat flux are directly linked to differences in SST. Regions with cooler (warmer) SST have decreased (increased) moisture flux from the ocean which is in proportion to the magnitude of the SST difference. Over the eastern Pacific, differences in low-level horizontal moisture flux show a general trend toward reduced fluxes over cooler waters and very little inland impact. Over the Gulf of Mexico, however, there is substantial variability for each dataset comparison, despite having only limited variability among the SST data. Causes of this unexpected variability are not straight-forward. Precipitation impacts are greatest near the southern coast of Mexico and along the Sierra Madres. Precipitation variability over the CONUS is rather chaotic and is limited to areas impacted by the Gulf of Mexico or monsoon convection. Another unexpected outcome is the lack of variability in areas near the northern Gulf of California where SST and latent heat flux variability is a maximum. From the 7-day surge period simulations at 7km grid spacing, we found that SST differences on the higher resolution nested grid reveal fine scale variability that is otherwise smoothed out or unapparent on the coarser grid. Unlike the coarse grid, the latent heat flux, temperature, and moisture transport differences on the fine grid reveal an inland impact. This is likely due to fine scale variability in onshore moisture transport and sea- breeze circulations which may alter monsoonal convection and precipitation. However, only the largest SST differences (spatially and in magnitude) tend to invoke large, coherent responses in moisture flux. The SST variability at high resolution produces relatively large differences in precipitation that are focused along the slopes of the SMO, with a tendency toward greater variability along the western slope adjacent to the coast. The precipitation differences are of fine resolution, with variability of +/- 30 mm (over 5 days) along the length of the SMO. Variability on the fine grid also invokes precipitation changes over AZ/NM that are not resolved on the coarse grid. Vertical cross-sections examined along the GoC during the surge episode revealed variations in the moisture and temperature structure of the surge. The cooler SSTs in the climatological dataset produced the greatest variability compared to the other datasets. The surge produced from climatology SSTs was nearly 5g/kg drier and up to 4°C cooler compared to surges influenced by the SST datasets. The overall northward propagation of the surge appeared unaffected by the SSTs.

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Communication requirements of sparse Cholesky factorization with nested dissection ordering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, Vijay K.; Patrick, Merrell L.

1989-01-01

Load distribution schemes for minimizing the communication requirements of the Cholesky factorization of dense and sparse, symmetric, positive definite matrices on multiprocessor systems are presented. The total data traffic in factoring an n x n sparse symmetric positive definite matrix representing an n-vertex regular two-dimensional grid graph using n exp alpha, alpha not greater than 1, processors are shown to be O(n exp 1 + alpha/2). It is O(n), when n exp alpha, alpha not smaller than 1, processors are used. Under the conditions of uniform load distribution, these results are shown to be asymptotically optimal.

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, Brandi C.; Boal, Clint W.; Skipper, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Nest-site selection analysis of hooded crane (Grus monacha) in Northeastern China based on a multivariate ensemble model.

PubMed

Jiao, Shengwu; Guo, Yumin; Huettmann, Falk; Lei, Guangchun

2014-07-01

Avian nest-site selection is an important research and management subject. The hooded crane (Grus monacha) is a vulnerable (VU) species according to the IUCN Red List. Here, we present the first long-term Chinese legacy nest data for this species (1993-2010) with publicly available metadata. Further, we provide the first study that reports findings on multivariate nest habitat preference using such long-term field data for this species. Our work was carried out in Northeastern China, where we found and measured 24 nests and 81 randomly selected control plots and their environmental parameters in a vast landscape. We used machine learning (stochastic boosted regression trees) to quantify nest selection. Our analysis further included varclust (R Hmisc) and (TreenNet) to address statistical correlations and two-way interactions. We found that from an initial list of 14 measured field variables, water area (+), water depth (+) and shrub coverage (-) were the main explanatory variables that contributed to hooded crane nest-site selection. Agricultural sites played a smaller role in the selection of these nests. Our results are important for the conservation management of cranes all over East Asia and constitute a defensible and quantitative basis for predictive models.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development. PMID:26262876

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Tack, Jason D; Fedy, Bradley C

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Three-dimensional local grid refinement for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using iteratively coupled shared nodes: A new method of interpolation and analysis of errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mehl, S.; Hill, M.C.

2004-01-01

This paper describes work that extends to three dimensions the two-dimensional local-grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models of Mehl and Hill [Development and evaluation of a local grid refinement method for block-centered finite-difference groundwater models using shared nodes. Adv Water Resour 2002;25(5):497-511]. In this approach, the (parent) finite-difference grid is discretized more finely within a (child) sub-region. The grid refinement method sequentially solves each grid and uses specified flux (parent) and specified head (child) boundary conditions to couple the grids. Iteration achieves convergence between heads and fluxes of both grids. Of most concern is how to interpolate heads onto the boundary of the child grid such that the physics of the parent-grid flow is retained in three dimensions. We develop a new two-step, "cage-shell" interpolation method based on the solution of the flow equation on the boundary of the child between nodes shared with the parent grid. Error analysis using a test case indicates that the shared-node local grid refinement method with cage-shell boundary head interpolation is accurate and robust, and the resulting code is used to investigate three-dimensional local grid refinement of stream-aquifer interactions. Results reveal that (1) the parent and child grids interact to shift the true head and flux solution to a different solution where the heads and fluxes of both grids are in equilibrium, (2) the locally refined model provided a solution for both heads and fluxes in the region of the refinement that was more accurate than a model without refinement only if iterations are performed so that both heads and fluxes are in equilibrium, and (3) the accuracy of the coupling is limited by the parent-grid size - A coarse parent grid limits correct representation of the hydraulics in the feedback from the child grid.

Simulation and Sensitivity in a Nested Modeling System for South America. Part II: GCM Boundary Forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Maisa; Seth, Anji

2003-08-01

of this study, the RegCM's ability to simulate circulation and rainfall observed in the two extreme seasons was demonstrated when driven at the lateral boundaries by reanalyzed forcing. Seasonal integrations with the RegCM driven by GCM ensemble-derived lateral boundary forcing demonstrate that the nested model responds well to the SST forcing, by capturing the major features of the circulation and rainfall differences between the two years. The GCM-driven model also improves upon the monthly evolution of rainfall compared with that from the GCM. However, the nested model rainfall simulations for the two seasons are degraded compared with those from the reanalyses-driven RegCM integrations. The poor location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the GCM leads to excess rainfall in Nordeste in the nested model.An expanded domain was tested, wherein the RegCM was permitted more internal freedom to respond to SST and regional orographic forcing. Results show that the RegCM is able to improve the location of the ITCZ, and the seasonal evolution of rainfall in Nordeste, the Amazon region, and the southeastern region of Brazil. However, it remains that the limiting factor in the skill of the nested modeling system is the quality of the lateral boundary forcing provided by the global model.

Influence of human development and predators on nest survival of tundra birds, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska.

PubMed

Liebezeit, J R; Kendall, S J; Brown, S; Johnson, C B; Martin, P; McDonald, T L; Payer, D C; Rea, C L; Streever, B; Wildman, A M; Zack, S

2009-09-01

Nest predation may influence population dynamics of birds on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA. Anthropogenic development on the ACP is increasing, which may attract nest predators by providing artificial sources of food, perches, den sites, and nest sites. Enhanced populations or concentrations of human-subsidized predators may reduce nest survival for tundra-nesting birds. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that nest survival decreases in proximity to human infrastructure. We monitored 1257 nests of 13 shorebird species and 619 nests of four passerine species at seven sites on the ACP from 2002 to 2005. Study sites were chosen to represent a range of distances to infrastructure from 100 m to 80 km. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effects of background (i.e., natural) factors and infrastructure on nest survival. We documented high spatial and temporal variability in nest survival, and site and year were both included in the best background model. We did not detect an effect of human infrastructure on nest survival for shorebirds as a group. In contrast, we found evidence that risk of predation for passerine nests increased within 5 km of infrastructure. This finding provides quantitative evidence of a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for breeding passerines on the ACP. A posteriori finer-scale analyses (within oil field sites and individual species) suggested that Red and Red-necked Phalaropes combined (Phalaropus fulicarius, P. lobatus) had lower productivity closer to infrastructure and in areas with higher abundance of subsidized predators. However, we did not detect such a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for Semipalmated and Pectoral Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla, C. melanotos), the two most abundant shorebirds. High variability in environmental conditions, nest survival, and predator numbers between sites and years may have contributed to these inconsistent results. We recommend targeted management actions to minimize anthropogenic effects and suggest new research needed on this issue as expanding development is planned for the ACP of Alaska. In particular, we recommend research on demography of key predators and their importance with respect to nest survival, and experimental studies that better address challenges posed by high natural variability.

Spiking Neurons in a Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map Model Can Learn to Develop Spatial and Temporal Properties of Entorhinal Grid Cells and Hippocampal Place Cells

PubMed Central

Pilly, Praveen K.; Grossberg, Stephen

2013-01-01

Medial entorhinal grid cells and hippocampal place cells provide neural correlates of spatial representation in the brain. A place cell typically fires whenever an animal is present in one or more spatial regions, or places, of an environment. A grid cell typically fires in multiple spatial regions that form a regular hexagonal grid structure extending throughout the environment. Different grid and place cells prefer spatially offset regions, with their firing fields increasing in size along the dorsoventral axes of the medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus. The spacing between neighboring fields for a grid cell also increases along the dorsoventral axis. This article presents a neural model whose spiking neurons operate in a hierarchy of self-organizing maps, each obeying the same laws. This spiking GridPlaceMap model simulates how grid cells and place cells may develop. It responds to realistic rat navigational trajectories by learning grid cells with hexagonal grid firing fields of multiple spatial scales and place cells with one or more firing fields that match neurophysiological data about these cells and their development in juvenile rats. The place cells represent much larger spaces than the grid cells, which enable them to support navigational behaviors. Both self-organizing maps amplify and learn to categorize the most frequent and energetic co-occurrences of their inputs. The current results build upon a previous rate-based model of grid and place cell learning, and thus illustrate a general method for converting rate-based adaptive neural models, without the loss of any of their analog properties, into models whose cells obey spiking dynamics. New properties of the spiking GridPlaceMap model include the appearance of theta band modulation. The spiking model also opens a path for implementation in brain-emulating nanochips comprised of networks of noisy spiking neurons with multiple-level adaptive weights for controlling autonomous adaptive robots capable of spatial navigation. PMID:23577130

Ecological consequences of colony structure in dynamic ant nest networks.

PubMed

Ellis, Samuel; Franks, Daniel W; Robinson, Elva J H

2017-02-01

Access to resources depends on an individual's position within the environment. This is particularly important to animals that invest heavily in nest construction, such as social insects. Many ant species have a polydomous nesting strategy: a single colony inhabits several spatially separated nests, often exchanging resources between the nests. Different nests in a polydomous colony potentially have differential access to resources, but the ecological consequences of this are unclear. In this study, we investigate how nest survival and budding in polydomous wood ant ( Formica lugubris ) colonies are affected by being part of a multi-nest system. Using field data and novel analytical approaches combining survival models with dynamic network analysis, we show that the survival and budding of nests within a polydomous colony are affected by their position in the nest network structure. Specifically, we find that the flow of resources through a nest, which is based on its position within the wider nest network, determines a nest's likelihood of surviving and of founding new nests. Our results highlight how apparently disparate entities in a biological system can be integrated into a functional ecological unit. We also demonstrate how position within a dynamic network structure can have important ecological consequences.

High-tech or field techs: Radio-telemetry is a cost-effective method for reducing bias in songbird nest searching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Sean M.; Streby, Henry M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Fish, Alexander C.; Andersen, David E.

2015-01-01

We compared the efficacy of standard nest-searching methods with finding nests via radio-tagged birds to assess how search technique influenced our determination of nest-site characteristics and nest success for Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera). We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using radio-tagged birds to find nests. Using standard nest-searching techniques for 3 populations, we found 111 nests in locations with habitat characteristics similar to those described in previous studies: edges between forest and relatively open areas of early successional vegetation or shrubby wetlands, with 43% within 5 m of forest edge. The 83 nests found using telemetry were about half as likely (23%) to be within 5 m of forest edge. We spent little time searching >25 m into forest because published reports state that Golden-winged Warblers do not nest there. However, 14 nests found using telemetry (18%) were >25 m into forest. We modeled nest success using nest-searching method, nest age, and distance to forest edge as explanatory variables. Nest-searching method explained nest success better than nest age alone; we estimated that nests found using telemetry were 10% more likely to fledge young than nests found using standard nest-searching methods. Although radio-telemetry was more expensive than standard nest searching, the cost-effectiveness of both methods differed depending on searcher experience, amount of equipment owned, and bird population density. Our results demonstrate that telemetry can be an effective method for reducing bias in Golden-winged Warbler nest samples, can be cost competitive with standard nest-searching methods in some situations, and is likely to be a useful approach for finding nests of other forest-nesting songbirds.

Simulating Virtual Terminal Area Weather Data Bases for Use in the Wake Vortex Avoidance System (Wake VAS) Prediction Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2004-01-01

During the research project, sounding datasets were generated for the region surrounding 9 major airports, including Dallas, TX, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, San Francico, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. The numerical simulation of winter and summer environments during which no instrument flight rule impact was occurring at these 9 terminals was performed using the most contemporary version of the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) model nested from 36 km to 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution and very detailed vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer. The soundings from the 1 km model were archived at 30 minute time intervals for a 24 hour period and the vertical dependent variables as well as derived quantities, i.e., 3-dimensional wind components, temperatures, pressures, mixing ratios, turbulence kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rates were then interpolated to 5 m vertical resolution up to 1000 m elevation above ground level. After partial validation against field experiment datasets for Dallas as well as larger scale and much coarser resolution observations at the other 8 airports, these sounding datasets were sent to NASA for use in the Virtual Air Space and Modeling program. The application of these datasets being to determine representative airport weather environments to diagnose the response of simulated wake vortices to realistic atmospheric environments. These virtual datasets are based on large scale observed atmospheric initial conditions that are dynamically interpolated in space and time. The 1 km nested-grid simulated datasets providing a very coarse and highly smoothed representation of airport environment meteorological conditions. Details concerning the airport surface forcing are virtually absent from these simulated datasets although the observed background atmospheric processes have been compared to the simulated fields and the fields were found to accurately replicate the flows surrounding the airport where coarse verification data were available as well as where airport scale datasets were available.

Evaluation of the UnTRIM model for 3-D tidal circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, R.T.; Casulli, V.; ,

2001-01-01

A family of numerical models, known as the TRIM models, shares the same modeling philosophy for solving the shallow water equations. A characteristic analysis of the shallow water equations points out that the numerical instability is controlled by the gravity wave terms in the momentum equations and by the transport terms in the continuity equation. A semi-implicit finite-difference scheme has been formulated so that these terms and the vertical diffusion terms are treated implicitly and the remaining terms explicitly to control the numerical stability and the computations are carried out over a uniform finite-difference computational mesh without invoking horizontal or vertical coordinate transformations. An unstructured grid version of TRIM model is introduced, or UnTRIM (pronounces as "you trim"), which preserves these basic numerical properties and modeling philosophy, only the computations are carried out over an unstructured orthogonal grid. The unstructured grid offers the flexibilities in representing complex study areas so that fine grid resolution can be placed in regions of interest, and coarse grids are used to cover the remaining domain. Thus, the computational efforts are concentrated in areas of importance, and an overall computational saving can be achieved because the total number of grid-points is dramatically reduced. To use this modeling approach, an unstructured grid mesh must be generated to properly reflect the properties of the domain of the investigation. The new modeling flexibility in grid structure is accompanied by new challenges associated with issues of grid generation. To take full advantage of this new model flexibility, the model grid generation should be guided by insights into the physics of the problems; and the insights needed may require a higher degree of modeling skill.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

A single-cell spiking model for the origin of grid-cell patterns

PubMed Central

Kempter, Richard

2017-01-01

Spatial cognition in mammals is thought to rely on the activity of grid cells in the entorhinal cortex, yet the fundamental principles underlying the origin of grid-cell firing are still debated. Grid-like patterns could emerge via Hebbian learning and neuronal adaptation, but current computational models remained too abstract to allow direct confrontation with experimental data. Here, we propose a single-cell spiking model that generates grid firing fields via spike-rate adaptation and spike-timing dependent plasticity. Through rigorous mathematical analysis applicable in the linear limit, we quantitatively predict the requirements for grid-pattern formation, and we establish a direct link to classical pattern-forming systems of the Turing type. Our study lays the groundwork for biophysically-realistic models of grid-cell activity. PMID:28968386

Selection of arboreal termitaria for nesting by cooperatively breeding Micronesian Kingfishers Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2005-01-01

Limited nest-site availability appears to be an important factor in the evolution of delayed dispersal and cooperative breeding in some cavity-nesting species. The cooperatively breeding Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii excavates nest cavities from the nests of arboreal termites Nasutitermes spp., or termitaria. In this first published description of nest-sites for this subspecies, we used surveys, remote sensing and radiotelemetry to evaluate the relationship between nest-site availability and co-operation. Results illustrate that nest termitaria are higher in the forest canopy, larger in volume and occur in areas with more contiguous canopy cover than unused termitaria. Nest termitaria were selected independently of the proximity to forest edges and territory boundaries, and we found no difference in characteristics of termitaria used by cooperative groups and breeding pairs. Logistic regression modelling indicated that termitaria with nest-like characteristics were not limited in abundance, suggesting that neither the prospects of inheriting nesting resources nor limited nest-site abundance are probable explanations for delayed dispersal in the Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher.

New ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

USGS Publications Warehouse

James, S.C.; Dickinson, J.E.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Leake, S.A.; Zyvoloski, G.A.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.

2006-01-01

A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined ground-water flow models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined "child" model that is contained within a larger and coarser "parent" model that is based on the iterative method of Steffen W. Mehl and Mary C. Hill (2002, Advances in Water Res., 25, p. 497-511; 2004, Advances in Water Res., 27, p. 899-912). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells) or nonmatching grids. The coupled grids are simulated by using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child-cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models. When the grids are nonmatching, model accuracy is slightly increased compared to that for matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to couple distinct models because the overall head and flow errors relative to the analytical solution are less than if only the regional coarse-grid model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain.

Development of a Kemp’s ridley sea turtle stock assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallaway, Benny J.; Gazey, William; Caillouet, Charles W.; Plotkin, Pamela T.; Abreu Grobois, F. Alberto; Amos, Anthony F.; Burchfield, Patrick M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Castro Martinez, Marco A.; Cole, John G.; Coleman, Andrew T.; Cook, Melissa; DiMarco, Steven F.; Epperly, Sheryan P.; Fujiwara, Masami; Gamez, Daniel Gomez; Graham, Gary L.; Griffin, Wade L.; Illescas Martinez, Francisco; Lamont, Margaret M.; Lewison, Rebecca L.; Lohmann, Kenneth J.; Nance, James M.; Pitchford, Jonathan; Putman, Nathan F.; Raborn, Scott W.; Rester, Jeffrey K.; Rudloe, Jack J.; Sarti Martinez, Laura; Schexnayder, Mark; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Shaver, Donna J.; Slay, Christopher; Tucker, Anton D.; Tumlin, Mandy; Wibbels, Thane; Zapata Najera, Blanca M.

2016-01-01

We developed a Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) stock assessment model to evaluate the relative contributions of conservation efforts and other factors toward this critically endangered species’ recovery. The Kemp’s ridley demographic model developed by the Turtle Expert Working Group (TEWG) in 1998 and 2000 and updated for the binational recovery plan in 2011 was modified for use as our base model. The TEWG model uses indices of the annual reproductive population (number of nests) and hatchling recruitment to predict future annual numbers of nests on the basis of a series of assumptions regarding age and maturity, remigration interval, sex ratios, nests per female, juvenile mortality, and a putative ‘‘turtle excluder device effect’’ multiplier starting in 1990. This multiplier was necessary to fit the number of nests observed in 1990 and later. We added the effects of shrimping effort directly, modified by habitat weightings, as a proxy for all sources of anthropogenic mortality. Additional data included in our model were incremental growth of Kemp’s ridleys marked and recaptured in the Gulf of Mexico, and the length frequency of stranded Kemp’s ridleys. We also added a 2010 mortality factor that was necessary to fit the number of nests for 2010 and later (2011 and 2012). Last, we used an empirical basis for estimating natural mortality, on the basis of a Lorenzen mortality curve and growth estimates. Although our model generated reasonable estimates of annual total turtle deaths attributable to shrimp trawling, as well as additional deaths due to undetermined anthropogenic causes in 2010, we were unable to provide a clear explanation for the observed increase in the number of stranded Kemp’s ridleys in recent years, and subsequent disruption of the species’ exponential growth since the 2009 nesting season. Our consensus is that expanded data collection at the nesting beaches is needed and of high priority, and that 2015 be targeted for the next stock assessment to evaluate the 2010 event using more recent nesting and in-water data.

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. Themore » evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Simulating gas and particulate pollution over the Middle East and the state of Qatar using a 3-D regional air quality modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountoukis, Christos; Gladich, Ivan; Ayoub, Mohammed; Kais, Sabre; Ackermann, Luis; Skillern, Adam

2016-04-01

The rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic expansion in the Middle East have led to increased levels of atmospheric pollution with important implications for human health and climate. We applied the online-coupled meteorological and chemical transport Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model over the Middle Eastern domain, to simulate the concentration of gas and aerosols with a special focus over the state of Qatar. WRF-Chem was set to simulate pollutant concentrations along with the meteorology-chemistry interactions through the related direct, indirect and semi-direct feedback mechanisms. A triple-nested domain configuration was used with a high grid resolution (1x1 km2) over the region of Qatar. Model predictions are evaluated against intensive measurements of meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) as well as ozone and particulate matter taken from various measurement stations throughout Doha, Qatar during summer 2015. The ability of the model to capture the temporal and spatial variability of the observations is assessed and possible reasons for the model bias are explored through sensitivity tests. Emissions of both fine and coarse mode particles from construction activities in large urban Middle Eastern environments comprise a major pollution source that is unaccounted for in emission inventories used so far in large scale models for this part of the world.

Numerical computation of complex multi-body Navier-Stokes flows with applications for the integrated Space Shuttle launch vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, William M.

1993-01-01

An enhanced grid system for the Space Shuttle Orbiter was built by integrating CAD definitions from several sources and then generating the surface and volume grids. The new grid system contains geometric components not modeled previously plus significant enhancements on geometry that has been modeled in the old grid system. The new orbiter grids were then integrated with new grids for the rest of the launch vehicle. Enhancements were made to the hyperbolic grid generator HYPGEN and new tools for grid projection, manipulation, and modification, Cartesian box grid and far field grid generation and post-processing of flow solver data were developed.

Eco-hydrological Wireless Sensor Network and upscaling method research in the Heihe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Rui; kang, Jian

2017-04-01

Wireless Sensor Networks are recognized as one of most important near-surface components of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems), with flourish development of low-cost, robust and integrated data loggers and sensors. A nested eco-hydrological wireless sensor network (EHWSN) was installed in the up- and middle-reaches of the Heihe River Basin, operated to obtain multi-scale observation of soil moisture, soil temperature and land surface temperature from 2012 till now. The spatial distribution of EHWSN was optimally designed based on the geo-statistical theory, with the aim to capture the spatial variations and temporal dynamics of soil moisture and soil temperature, and to produce ground truth at grid scale for validating the related remote sensing products and model simulation in the heterogeneous land surface. In terms of upscaling research, we have developed a set of method to aggregate multi-point WSN observations to grid scale ( 1km), including regression kriging estimation to utilize multi-resource remote sensing auxiliary information, block kriging with homogeneous measurement errors, and bayesian-based upscaling algorithm that utilizes MODIS-derived apparent thermal inertia. All the EHWSN observation are organized as datasets to be freely published at http://westdc.westgis.ac.cn/hiwater. EHWSN integrates distributed observation nodes to achieve an automated, intelligent and remote-controllable network that provides superior integrated, standardized and automated observation capabilities for hydrological and ecological processes research at the basin scale.

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

2014-01-01

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Parameterized Finite Element Modeling and Buckling Analysis of Six Typical Composite Grid Cylindrical Shells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Changliang; Wang, Junbiao; Liu, Chuang

2014-10-01

Six typical composite grid cylindrical shells are constructed by superimposing three basic types of ribs. Then buckling behavior and structural efficiency of these shells are analyzed under axial compression, pure bending, torsion and transverse bending by finite element (FE) models. The FE models are created by a parametrical FE modeling approach that defines FE models with original natural twisted geometry and orients cross-sections of beam elements exactly. And the approach is parameterized and coded by Patran Command Language (PCL). The demonstrations of FE modeling indicate the program enables efficient generation of FE models and facilitates parametric studies and design of grid shells. Using the program, the effects of helical angles on the buckling behavior of six typical grid cylindrical shells are determined. The results of these studies indicate that the triangle grid and rotated triangle grid cylindrical shell are more efficient than others under axial compression and pure bending, whereas under torsion and transverse bending, the hexagon grid cylindrical shell is most efficient. Additionally, buckling mode shapes are compared and provide an understanding of composite grid cylindrical shells that is useful in preliminary design of such structures.

Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

2017-08-01

As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

Effect of nesting environment on incubation temperature and hatching success of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) in an urban lake of Southeastern Mexico.

PubMed

López-Luna, Marco A; Hidalgo-Mihart, Mircea G; Aguirre-León, Gustavo; González-Ramón, Mariana Del C; Rangel-Mendoza, Judith A

2015-01-01

Incubation temperature is an important aspect in terms of biological performance among crocodiles, and several controlled experiments have demonstrated a significant relationship between incubation temperature, success in hatching and survival of hatchlings. However, a few studies have tested these relationships in the wild. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of nest characteristics and environment (hatch year, nest basal area and height, clutch size, distance to shore line, and vegetation cover), to incubation temperature and hatching success among Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii). The study was carried out during the nesting seasons of Morelet's crocodile, from 2007 to 2009 in the Laguna de Las Ilusiones, an urban lake located in Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. We physically characterized 18 nests and inserted a temperature data logger in each nest chamber. At the end of the nesting season and prior to hatching, we recovered the crocodile eggs and data loggers and calculated hatching success, under laboratory conditions. We related the environmental variables of the nest with the mean and fluctuation (standard deviation) of nest temperature, using linear models. We also related the environmental variables affecting the nest, to mean nest temperature and fluctuation in incubation temperature and to hatching success, using linear models. Although we found differences in incubation temperature between nests, mean incubation temperature did not differ between years, but there were differences in nest thermal fluctuation between years. The mean incubation temperature for 11 nests (61.1%) was lower than the suggested Female-Male pivotal temperature (producing 50% of each sex) for this species, and all hatchlings obtained were males. There were no differences in clutch size between years, but hatching success varied. Our study indicates that hatching success depends on certain environmental variables and nest conditions to which the eggs are subjected, including season, nest size and clutch size. We also discuss the importance of the fluctuation of incubation temperature on hatching success and sex determination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

2017-05-01

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between nighttime artificial light pollution and sea turtle nest density along Florida coast: A geospatial study using VIIRS remote sensing data.

PubMed

Hu, Zhiyong; Hu, Hongda; Huang, Yuxia

2018-08-01

Artificial lighting at night has becoming a new type of pollution posing an important anthropogenic environmental pressure on organisms. The objective of this research was to examine the potential association between nighttime artificial light pollution and nest densities of the three main sea turtle species along Florida beaches, including green turtles, loggerheads, and leatherbacks. Sea turtle survey data was obtained from the "Florida Statewide Nesting Beach Survey program". We used the new generation of satellite sensor "Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)" (version 1 D/N Band) nighttime annual average radiance composite image data. We defined light pollution as artificial light brightness greater than 10% of the natural sky brightness above 45° of elevation (>1.14 × 10 -11 Wm -2 sr -1 ). We fitted a generalized linear model (GLM), a GLM with eigenvectors spatial filtering (GLM-ESF), and a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach for each species to examine the potential correlation of nest density with light pollution. Our models are robust and reliable in terms of the ability to deal with data distribution and spatial autocorrelation (SA) issues violating model assumptions. All three models found that nest density is significantly negatively correlated with light pollution for each sea turtle species: the higher light pollution, the lower nest density. The two spatially extended models (GLM-ESF and GEE) show that light pollution influences nest density in a descending order from green turtles, to loggerheads, and then to leatherbacks. The research findings have an implication for sea turtle conservation policy and ordinance making. Near-coastal lights-out ordinances and other approaches to shield lights can protect sea turtles and their nests. The VIIRS DNB light data, having significant improvements over comparable data by its predecessor, the DMSP-OLS, shows promise for continued and improved research about ecological effects of artificial light pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Drever, Mark C; Gyug, Les W; Nielsen, Jennifer; Stuart-Smith, A Kari; Ohanjanian, I Penny; Martin, Kathy

2015-01-01

Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus) is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS) data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm) western larch (Larix occidentalis) trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

Smart grid initialization reduces the computational complexity of multi-objective image registration based on a dual-dynamic transformation model to account for large anatomical differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosman, Peter A. N.; Alderliesten, Tanja

2016-03-01

We recently demonstrated the strong potential of using dual-dynamic transformation models when tackling deformable image registration problems involving large anatomical differences. Dual-dynamic transformation models employ two moving grids instead of the common single moving grid for the target image (and single fixed grid for the source image). We previously employed powerful optimization algorithms to make use of the additional flexibility offered by a dual-dynamic transformation model with good results, directly obtaining insight into the trade-off between important registration objectives as a result of taking a multi-objective approach to optimization. However, optimization has so far been initialized using two regular grids, which still leaves a great potential of dual-dynamic transformation models untapped: a-priori grid alignment with image structures/areas that are expected to deform more. This allows (far) less grid points to be used, compared to using a sufficiently refined regular grid, leading to (far) more efficient optimization, or, equivalently, more accurate results using the same number of grid points. We study the implications of exploiting this potential by experimenting with two new smart grid initialization procedures: one manual expert-based and one automated image-feature-based. We consider a CT test case with large differences in bladder volume with and without a multi-resolution scheme and find a substantial benefit of using smart grid initialization.

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Strategies for nest-site selection by king eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2009-01-01

Nest site selection is a critical component of reproduction and has presumably evolved in relation to predation, local resources, and microclimate. We investigated nest-site choice by king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) on the coastal plain of northern Alaska, USA, 2003-2005. We hypothesized that nest-site selection is driven by predator avoidance and that a variety of strategies including concealment, seclusion, and conspecific or inter-specific nest defense might lead to improved nesting success. We systematically searched wetland basins for king eider nests and measured habitat and social variables at nests (n = 212) and random locations (n = 493). King eiders made use of both secluded and concealed breeding strategies; logistic regression models revealed that females selected nests close to water, on islands, and in areas with high willow (Salix spp.) cover but did not select sites near conspecific or glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) nests. The most effective nest-placement strategy may vary depending on density and types of nest predators; seclusion is likely a mammalian-predator avoidance tactic whereas concealment may provide protection from avian predators. We recommend that managers in northern Alaska attempt to maintain wetland basins with islands and complex shorelines to provide potential nest sites in the vicinity of water. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Landscape alterations influence differential habitat use of nesting buteos and ravens within sagebrush ecosystem: implications for transmission line development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

A goal in avian ecology is to understand factors that influence differences in nesting habitat and distribution among species, especially within changing landscapes. Over the past 2 decades, humans have altered sagebrush ecosystems as a result of expansion in energy production and transmission. Our primary study objective was to identify differences in the use of landscape characteristics and natural and anthropogenic features by nesting Common Ravens (Corvus corax) and 3 species of buteo (Swainson's Hawk [Buteo swainsoni], Red-tailed Hawk [B. jamaicensis], and Ferruginous Hawk [B. regalis]) within a sagebrush ecosystem in southeastern Idaho. During 2007–2009, we measured multiple environmental factors associated with 212 nest sites using data collected remotely and in the field. We then developed multinomial models to predict nesting probabilities by each species and predictive response curves based on model-averaged estimates. We found differences among species related to nesting substrate (natural vs. anthropogenic), agriculture, native grassland, and edge (interface of 2 cover types). Most important, ravens had a higher probability of nesting on anthropogenic features (0.80) than the other 3 species (Artemisia spp.), favoring increased numbers of nesting ravens and fewer nesting Ferruginous Hawks. Our results indicate that habitat alterations, fragmentation, and forthcoming disturbances anticipated with continued energy development in sagebrush steppe ecosystems can lead to predictable changes in raptor and raven communities.

Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

1988-01-01

A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

A benders decomposition approach to multiarea stochastic distributed utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Susan Ann

Until recently, small, modular generation and storage options---distributed resources (DRs)---have been installed principally in areas too remote for economic power grid connection and sensitive applications requiring backup capacity. Recent regulatory changes and DR advances, however, have lead utilities to reconsider the role of DRs. To a utility facing distribution capacity bottlenecks or uncertain load growth, DRs can be particularly valuable since they can be dispersed throughout the system and constructed relatively quickly. DR value is determined by comparing its costs to avoided central generation expenses (i.e., marginal costs) and distribution investments. This requires a comprehensive central and local planning and production model, since central system marginal costs result from system interactions over space and time. This dissertation develops and applies an iterative generalized Benders decomposition approach to coordinate models for optimal DR evaluation. Three coordinated models exchange investment, net power demand, and avoided cost information to minimize overall expansion costs. Local investment and production decisions are made by a local mixed integer linear program. Central system investment decisions are made by a LP, and production costs are estimated by a stochastic multi-area production costing model with Kirchhoff's Voltage and Current Law constraints. The nested decomposition is a new and unique method for distributed utility planning that partitions the variables twice to separate local and central investment and production variables, and provides upper and lower bounds on expected expansion costs. Kirchhoff's Voltage Law imposes nonlinear, nonconvex constraints that preclude use of LP if transmission capacity is available in a looped transmission system. This dissertation develops KVL constraint approximations that permit the nested decomposition to consider new transmission resources, while maintaining linearity in the three individual models. These constraints are presented as a heuristic for the given examples; future research will investigate conditions for convergence. A ten-year multi-area example demonstrates the decomposition approach and suggests the ability of DRs and new transmission to modify capacity additions and production costs by changing demand and power flows. Results demonstrate that DR and new transmission options may lead to greater capacity additions, but resulting production cost savings more than offset extra capacity costs.

When are goshawks not there? Is a single visit enough to infer absence at occupied nest areas? Journal of Raptor Research

Treesearch

Douglas A. Boyce; Patricia L. Kennedy; Paul Beier; Michael F. Ingraldi; Susie R. MacVean; Melissa S. Siders; John R. Squires; Brian Woodbridge

2005-01-01

We tested the efficacy of three methods (historical nest search, broadcast search, and tree transect search) for detecting presence of the Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) at occupied nest areas during the 1994 breeding season using only a single visit to a previously known nest area. We used detection rates in a probability model to determine how many...

Domain modeling and grid generation for multi-block structured grids with application to aerodynamic and hydrodynamic configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spekreijse, S. P.; Boerstoel, J. W.; Vitagliano, P. L.; Kuyvenhoven, J. L.

1992-01-01

About five years ago, a joint development was started of a flow simulation system for engine-airframe integration studies on propeller as well as jet aircraft. The initial system was based on the Euler equations and made operational for industrial aerodynamic design work. The system consists of three major components: a domain modeller, for the graphical interactive subdivision of flow domains into an unstructured collection of blocks; a grid generator, for the graphical interactive computation of structured grids in blocks; and a flow solver, for the computation of flows on multi-block grids. The industrial partners of the collaboration and NLR have demonstrated that the domain modeller, grid generator and flow solver can be applied to simulate Euler flows around complete aircraft, including propulsion system simulation. Extension to Navier-Stokes flows is in progress. Delft Hydraulics has shown that both the domain modeller and grid generator can also be applied successfully for hydrodynamic configurations. An overview is given about the main aspects of both domain modelling and grid generation.

Reliability analysis in interdependent smart grid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Hao; Kan, Zhe; Zhao, Dandan; Han, Jianmin; Lu, Jianfeng; Hu, Zhaolong

2018-06-01

Complex network theory is a useful way to study many real complex systems. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on complex network theory is introduced in interdependent smart grid systems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the structure of smart grid systems and studying the underlying network model, their interactions, and relationships and how cascading failures occur in the interdependent smart grid systems. We propose a practical model for interdependent smart grid systems using complex theory. Besides, based on percolation theory, we also study the effect of cascading failures effect and reveal detailed mathematical analysis of failure propagation in such systems. We analyze the reliability of our proposed model caused by random attacks or failures by calculating the size of giant functioning components in interdependent smart grid systems. Our simulation results also show that there exists a threshold for the proportion of faulty nodes, beyond which the smart grid systems collapse. Also we determine the critical values for different system parameters. In this way, the reliability analysis model based on complex network theory can be effectively utilized for anti-attack and protection purposes in interdependent smart grid systems.

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata).

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

2014-05-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata)

PubMed Central

Hall, Zachary J.; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E.; Meddle, Simone L.; Healy, Susan D.

2014-01-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. PMID:24508238

Assessment of current effect on waves in a semi-enclosed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Bergamasco, A.

2012-04-01

The wave-current interaction process in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea is studied using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, which is used to exchange data fields between the ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) and the wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). The 2-way data transfer between circulation and wave models is synchronous with ROMS providing current fields, free surface elevation, and bathymetry to SWAN. In particular, the 3-D current profiles are averaged using a formulation that integrates the near-surface velocity over a depth controlled by the spectral mean wave number. This coupling procedure is carried out up to coastal areas by means of an offline grid nesting. The parent grid covers the whole Adriatic Sea and has a horizontal resolution of 2.0 km, whereas the child grid resolution increases to 0.5 km but it is limited to the northern Adriatic Sea (Gulf of Venice), where the current effect on waves is investigated. The most frequent winds blowing on the Adriatic Sea are the so-called Bora and Sirocco which cause high waves in the Adriatic Sea, although Bora waves are generally fetch-limited. In fact, Bora winds blow orthogonal to the main basin axis (approximately aligned with the NW-SE direction), while Sirocco has large spatial scale being a southeasterly wind. For the numerical simulations, the meteorological forcings are provided by the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7, which is the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium. During the analysis period, the simulated wind, current and wave are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower located off the Venice littoral. Wave heights and sea surface winds are also compared with satellite-derived data. To account for the variability of sea states during a storm, the expected maximum individual wave height in a sea storm with a given history is also considered. During intense storms, the effect of coupling on wave heights is resulting in variations of the wave heights up to 15%, with some areas experiencing increase or decrease of wave spectral energy for opposite and following currents respectively. The study is part of the activities developed in the European Union (EU) funded FIELD_AC project (Fluxes, Interactions and Environment at the Land-ocean boundary. Downscaling, Assimilation and Coupling), which is conceived with the goal to better identify the most significant natural processes in coastal areas, and to address their impact on the coastal and nearshore dynamics by including them in a complete numerical prediction suite.

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartke, Kevin M.; Grand, J.B.; Hepp, G.R.; Folk, T.H.

2006-01-01

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Transferability of habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers associated with wildfire

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Vicki Saab; Jeff P. Hollenbeck; Jonathan G. Dudley

2016-01-01

Following wildfire, forest managers are challenged with meeting both socioeconomic demands (e.g., salvage logging) and mandates requiring habitat conservation for disturbance-associated wildlife (e.g., woodpeckers). Habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers can be informative, but tests of model transferability are needed to understand how broadly...

Site selection and nest survival of the Bar-Headed Goose (Anser indicus) on the Mongolian Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Batbayar, Nyambayar; Takekawa, John Y.; Natsagdorj, Tseveenmyadag; Spragens, Kyle A.; Xiao, Xiamgming

2014-01-01

Waterbirds breeding on the Mongolian Plateau in Central Asia must find suitable wetland areas for nesting in a semiarid region characterized by highly variable water conditions. The first systematic nesting study of a waterbird dependent on this region for breeding was conducted on the Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus). The purpose of this study was to document Bar-headed Goose nesting locations, characterize nests and nesting strategies, and estimate daily nest survival (n = 235 nests) from eight areas of west-central Mongolia across three summers (2009–2011) using a modified Mayfield estimator. Bar-headed Goose daily nest survival ranged from 0.94 to 0.98, with a 3-year average nest success of 42.6% during incubation. Bar-headed Geese were found to primarily nest on isolated pond and lake islands as previously reported, but were also documented regularly, though less frequently, along rocky cliffs in several regions of west-central Mongolia. Daily nest survival was higher for cliff nests than for island nests. Information-theoretic models indicated that nest survival decreased with nest age and varied annually with changing environmental conditions. Results of this study suggest that while Bar-headed Geese primarily rely on nesting island sites these sites may be more susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and predation events influenced by seasonal variation in environmental conditions, and that higher daily nest survival values documented for the less frequent cliff nest strategy may provide an important alternative strategy during poor island nest success years. Thus, conservation efforts for this and other waterbird species in the semiarid region should be focused on conserving nesting islands and protecting them from disturbance in areas of high livestock densities experiencing a rapidly warming climate.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

PubMed Central

Morreale, Stephen J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R.

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Patel, Samir H; Morreale, Stephen J; Saba, Vincent S; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

FUN3D and CFL3D Computations for the First High Lift Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Michael A.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Rumsey, Christopher L.

2011-01-01

Two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes codes were used to compute flow over the NASA Trapezoidal Wing at high lift conditions for the 1st AIAA CFD High Lift Prediction Workshop, held in Chicago in June 2010. The unstructured-grid code FUN3D and the structured-grid code CFL3D were applied to several different grid systems. The effects of code, grid system, turbulence model, viscous term treatment, and brackets were studied. The SST model on this configuration predicted lower lift than the Spalart-Allmaras model at high angles of attack; the Spalart-Allmaras model agreed better with experiment. Neglecting viscous cross-derivative terms caused poorer prediction in the wing tip vortex region. Output-based grid adaptation was applied to the unstructured-grid solutions. The adapted grids better resolved wake structures and reduced flap flow separation, which was also observed in uniform grid refinement studies. Limitations of the adaptation method as well as areas for future improvement were identified.

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

PubMed

Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

PubMed Central

Borgmann, Kathi L.; Conway, Courtney J.; Morrison, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation. PMID:23776566

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Implementation and evaluation of a comprehensive emission model for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieser, Johannes; Aulinger, Armin; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

2010-05-01

Crucial input data sets for Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are the meteorological fields and the emissions data. While there are several publicly available meteorological models, the situation for European emission models is still different. European emissions data either lack spatial and temporal resolution, only cover specific countries or are proprietary and not free to use. In this work the US EPA emission model SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) has been successfully adapted and partially extended to create European emissions input for CTMs. The modified version of the SMOKE emission model (SMOKE/E) uses official and publicly available data sets and statistics to create emissions of CO, NOx, SO2, NH3, PM2.5, PM10, NMVOC. Currently it supports VOC splits for several photochemical mechanisms, namely CB4, CB5 and RADM2. PM2.5 is split into elemental carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, nitrate and other particles. Additionally emissions of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) have been modelled with SMOKE Europe. The temporal resolution of the emissions is one hour, the horizontal resolution is up to 1x1 km². SMOKE/E also implements plume in grid calculations for vertical distribution of point sources. The vertical resolution is infinitely variable and is implemented in the form of pressure levels. The area covered by the emission model at this point is Europe and it's surrounding countries, including north Africa and parts of Asia. Thus far SMOKE Europe has been used to create European emissions on a 54x54km² grid covering the whole of Europe and a 18x18km² nested grid over the North and Baltic Sea for the years 1990-2006. The currently implemented datasets allow for the calculation of emissions between 1970-2010. Besides this future emissions scenarios for the timespan 2010-2020 are being calculated using the EMEP projections. The created emissions have been statistically compared to the gridded EMEP emissions as well as to data from other emission models for the base years 2000 and 2001. The 54x54km² emissions data for 2000 were used as input for the CMAQ4.6 CTM and the calculated air concentrations were compared to EMEP measurements in Europe. Statistical comparison of Ozone and three particulate species (NH4,NO3,SO4) showed that SMOKE/E performs very good under the tested circumstances. O3 : (NMB 0.71) (SD 0.68) (F2 0.83) (CORR 0.55) using 48 Stations (hourly) NH4: (NMB 0.25) (SD 1.01) (F2 0.55) (CORR 0.53) using 8 Stations (daily) NO3: (NMB 0.42) (SD 0.60) (F2 0.40) (CORR 0.45) using 7 Stations (daily) SO4: (NMB 0.34) (SD 0.84) (F2 0.65) (CORR 0.55) using 21 Stations (daily) Abbreviations: Normalized Mean Bias (NMB), Standard Deviation (SD), Factor of 2 (F2), Correlation (CORR). The calculated air concentrations were compared with CMAQ runs using two purchased emissions datasets. It could be shown that the modified SMOKE model produces results comparable to those of commonly used European emissions data sets. For the future it is planed to implement emissions of heavy metals and polyfluorinated compounds into the SMOKE Europe model.

Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

2017-12-01

Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

Comparison of maximum runup through analytical and numerical approaches for different fault parameters estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanoglu, U.; Wronna, M.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2017-12-01

The one-dimensional analytical runup theory in combination with near shore synthetic waveforms is a promising tool for tsunami rapid early warning systems. Its application in realistic cases with complex bathymetry and initial wave condition from inverse modelling have shown that maximum runup values can be estimated reasonably well. In this study we generate a simplistic bathymetry domains which resemble realistic near-shore features. We investigate the accuracy of the analytical runup formulae to the variation of fault source parameters and near-shore bathymetric features. To do this we systematically vary the fault plane parameters to compute the initial tsunami wave condition. Subsequently, we use the initial conditions to run the numerical tsunami model using coupled system of four nested grids and compare the results to the analytical estimates. Variation of the dip angle of the fault plane showed that analytical estimates have less than 10% difference for angles 5-45 degrees in a simple bathymetric domain. These results shows that the use of analytical formulae for fast run up estimates constitutes a very promising approach in a simple bathymetric domain and might be implemented in Hazard Mapping and Early Warning.

Modeling the contributions of emission, meteorology, and chemistry to high PM2.5 levels over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Jia, B.; Jiang, J.; Zhou, W.; Wang, B.

2014-12-01

PM2.5 is known to harm health and public welfare. In recent years, regional haze with PM2.5 levels exceeding ten folds of WHO's air quality guideline has become the largest air quality concern in China. To better protect the health of millions of people, the key question is whether we understand the formation mechanism of high PM2.5 episodes well enough to guide the formation of effective control strategies. Here we present a modeling analysis in conjunction of observational constraints to estimate the contribution of emissions, meteorology, and secondary chemical formation to changes in PM2.5 levels over China. Certain meteorological conditions are found particularly conducive to trigger fast increases of secondary PM under current emissions mixtures in China. While the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model reproduces the distribution of PM2.5 and simulates up to ~400 μg/m3 of daily maximum PM2.5, it fails to capture the large sulfate enhancement during haze. We propose heterogeneous oxidation of SO2 on deliquesced aerosols as an additional source of sulfate under high relative humidity conditions. Parameterizing this process in the model improves the simulated spatial distribution and results in significant increases of sulfate enhancement ratio and sulfate fraction in PM2.5 during haze episodes. Implications of our modeling analysis for PM2.5 pollution control policies will also be discussed.

The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Lang, Steve; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2006-01-01

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WFW is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WFW model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WW to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on hurricane track, intensity and rainfall forecast. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes @e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes.

Mapping pan-Arctic CH4 emissions using an adjoint method by integrating process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models and atmospheric CH4 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Zhuang, Q.; Henze, D. K.; Frankenberg, C.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Turner, A. J.

2015-12-01

Understanding CH4 emissions from wetlands and lakes are critical for the estimation of Arctic carbon balance under fast warming climatic conditions. To date, our knowledge about these two CH4 sources is almost solely built on the upscaling of discontinuous measurements in limited areas to the whole region. Many studies indicated that, the controls of CH4 emissions from wetlands and lakes including soil moisture, lake morphology and substrate content and quality are notoriously heterogeneous, thus the accuracy of those simple estimates could be questionable. Here we apply a high spatial resolution atmospheric inverse model (nested-grid GEOS-Chem Adjoint) over the Arctic by integrating SCIAMACHY and NOAA/ESRL CH4 measurements to constrain the CH4 emissions estimated with process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models. Our modeling experiments using different wetland CH4 emission schemes and satellite and surface measurements show that the total amount of CH4 emitted from the Arctic wetlands is well constrained, but the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions is sensitive to priors. For CH4 emissions from lakes, our high-resolution inversion shows that the models overestimate CH4 emissions in Alaskan costal lowlands and East Siberian lowlands. Our study also indicates that the precision and coverage of measurements need to be improved to achieve more accurate high-resolution estimates.

Effects of human recreation on the incubation behavior of American Oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Simons, T.R.

2006-01-01

Human recreational disturbance and its effects on wildlife demographics and behavior is an increasingly important area of research. We monitored the nesting success of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) in coastal North Carolina in 2002 and 2003. We also used video monitoring at nests to measure the response of incubating birds to human recreation. We counted the number of trips per hour made by adult birds to and from the nest, and we calculated the percent time that adults spent incubating. We asked whether human recreational activities (truck, all-terrain vehicle [ATV], and pedestrian traffic) were correlated with parental behavioral patterns. Eleven a priori models of nest survival and behavioral covariates were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to see whether incubation behavior influenced nest survival. Factors associated with birds leaving their nests (n = 548) included ATV traffic (25%), truck traffic (17%), pedestrian traffic (4%), aggression with neighboring oystercatchers or paired birds exchanging incubation duties (26%), airplane traffic (1%) and unknown factors (29%). ATV traffic was positively associated with the rate of trips to and away from the nest (??1 = 0.749, P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with percent time spent incubating (??1 = -0.037, P = 0.025). Other forms of human recreation apparently had little effect on incubation behaviors. Nest survival models incorporating the frequency of trips by adults to and from the nest, and the percentage of time adults spent incubating, were somewhat supported in the AIC analyses. A low frequency of trips to and from the nest and, counter to expectations, low percent time spent incubating were associated with higher daily nest survival rates. These data suggest that changes in incubation behavior might be one mechanism by which human recreation affects the reproductive success of American Oystercatchers.

Habitat edges affect patterns of artificial nest predation along a wetland-meadow boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvorov, Petr; Svobodová, Jana; Albrecht, Tomáš

2014-08-01

Wetland habitats are among the most endangered ecosystems in the world. However, little is known about factors affecting the nesting success of birds in pristine grass-dominated wetlands. During three breeding periods we conducted an experiment with artificial ground nests to test two basic mechanisms (the matrix and ecotonal effects) that may result in edge effects on nest predation in grass-dominated wetland habitats. Whereas the matrix effect model supposes that predator penetrate from habitat of higher predator density to habitat of lower predator density, thus causing an edge effect in the latter, according to the ecotonal effect model predators preferentially use edge habitats over habitat interiors. In addition, we tested the edge effect in a wetland habitat using artificial shrub nests that simulated the real nests of small open-cup nesting passerines. In our study area, the lowest predation rates on ground nests were found in wetland interiors and were substantially higher along the edges of both wetland and meadow habitat. However, predation was not significantly different between meadow and wetland interiors, indicating that both mechanisms can be responsible for the edge effect in wetland edges. An increased predation rate along wetland edges was also observed for shrub nests, and resembled the predation pattern of real shrub nests in the same study area. Though we are not able to distinguish between the two mechanisms of the edge effect found, our results demonstrate that species nesting in wetland edges bordering arable land may be exposed to higher predation. Therefore, an increase in the size of wetland patches that would lead to a reduced proportion of edge areas might be a suitable management practice to protect wetland bird species in cultural European landscapes.

Construction patterns of birds' nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours.

PubMed

Biddle, Lucia; Goodman, Adrian M; Deeming, D Charles

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch ( Pyrrhula pyrrhula ) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a "twig" nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process.

A fast dynamic grid adaption scheme for meteorological flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiedler, B.H.; Trapp, R.J.

1993-10-01

The continuous dynamic grid adaption (CDGA) technique is applied to a compressible, three-dimensional model of a rising thermal. The computational cost, per grid point per time step, of using CDGA instead of a fixed, uniform Cartesian grid is about 53% of the total cost of the model with CDGA. The use of general curvilinear coordinates contributes 11.7% to this total, calculating and moving the grid 6.1%, and continually updating the transformation relations 20.7%. Costs due to calculations that involve the gridpoint velocities (as well as some substantial unexplained costs) contribute the remaining 14.5%. A simple way to limit the costmore » of calculating the grid is presented. The grid is adapted by solving an elliptic equation for gridpoint coordinates on a coarse grid and then interpolating the full finite-difference grid. In this application, the additional costs per grid point of CDGA are shown to be easily offset by the savings resulting from the reduction in the required number of grid points. In simulation of the thermal costs are reduced by a factor of 3, as compared with those of a companion model with a fixed, uniform Cartesian grid. 8 refs., 8 figs.« less

Assessment of grid optimisation measures for the German transmission grid using open source grid data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böing, F.; Murmann, A.; Pellinger, C.; Bruckmeier, A.; Kern, T.; Mongin, T.

2018-02-01

The expansion of capacities in the German transmission grid is a necessity for further integration of renewable energy sources into the electricity sector. In this paper, the grid optimisation measures ‘Overhead Line Monitoring’, ‘Power-to-Heat’ and ‘Demand Response in the Industry’ are evaluated and compared against conventional grid expansion for the year 2030. Initially, the methodical approach of the simulation model is presented and detailed descriptions of the grid model and the used grid data, which partly originates from open-source platforms, are provided. Further, this paper explains how ‘Curtailment’ and ‘Redispatch’ can be reduced by implementing grid optimisation measures and how the depreciation of economic costs can be determined considering construction costs. The developed simulations show that the conventional grid expansion is more efficient and implies more grid relieving effects than the evaluated grid optimisation measures.

Comparing Regression Coefficients between Nested Linear Models for Clustered Data with Generalized Estimating Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Jun; Aseltine, Robert H., Jr.; Harel, Ofer

2013-01-01

Comparing regression coefficients between models when one model is nested within another is of great practical interest when two explanations of a given phenomenon are specified as linear models. The statistical problem is whether the coefficients associated with a given set of covariates change significantly when other covariates are added into…

Membrane potential dynamics of grid cells

PubMed Central

Domnisoru, Cristina; Kinkhabwala, Amina A.; Tank, David W.

2014-01-01

During navigation, grid cells increase their spike rates in firing fields arranged on a strikingly regular triangular lattice, while their spike timing is often modulated by theta oscillations. Oscillatory interference models of grid cells predict theta amplitude modulations of membrane potential during firing field traversals, while competing attractor network models predict slow depolarizing ramps. Here, using in-vivo whole-cell recordings, we tested these models by directly measuring grid cell intracellular potentials in mice running along linear tracks in virtual reality. Grid cells had large and reproducible ramps of membrane potential depolarization that were the characteristic signature tightly correlated with firing fields. Grid cells also exhibited intracellular theta oscillations that influenced their spike timing. However, the properties of theta amplitude modulations were not consistent with the view that they determine firing field locations. Our results support cellular and network mechanisms in which grid fields are produced by slow ramps, as in attractor models, while theta oscillations control spike timing. PMID:23395984

Reproductive rate and temporal spacing of nesting of red-winged blackbirds in upland habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolbeer, Richard A.

1976-01-01

The literature contains numerous studies on Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) reproduction. Francis (1971) summarized eight studies dealing with nesting success. These and other studies have also provided information on breeding chronology, clutch sizes, sex ratios, survival rates for eggs and nestlings, reproductive physiology, and other life history aspects of reproduction. With few exceptions, these studies have provided no data on the number of young fledged per female, per territorial male, or per unit area. This is especially true for upland nesting habitats where, at least in the midwestern United States, most Red-wings now nest (Graber and Graber 1963, Dyer et al. 1973). Also insufficient quantitative information is available on the extent and nature of renesting (i.e. nesting more than once in a nesting season) and on movements of adult females during the nesting season.A better understanding of these aspects of reproduction is critical for the development of an accurate population-dynamics model for the species. Such a model is sorely needed to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of proposed population management strategies in places where blackbirds are deemed a health or safety hazard, or cause damage to agricultural crops (Tosh et al. 1970, Solman 1971, Stone et al. 1972).This study had three objectives: (1) to determine the distribution, size, and number of Red-winged Blackbird territories for an old-field habitat; (2) to determine the number of nesting females, nesting success, extent of renesting, and number of young fledged for these territories; and (3) to examine movements of female Red-wings during the nesting season.

INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

West Florida Shelf Response to Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Weisberg, R. H.; Chen, J.; Merz, C. R.; Law, J.; Zheng, L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma impacted the west Florida continental shelf (WFS) as it transited the state of Florida during September 10-12, 2017, making landfall first at Cudjoe Key and then again at Naples, as a Category 2 hurricane. The WFS response to Hurricane Irma is analyzed using a combination of in situ observations and numerical model simulations. The observations include water column velocity (by Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers), sea surface temperature and meteorological records from three moorings on the shelf, surface currents by high-frequency radars, and coastal tide gauge records. The West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM) employed downscales from the deep Gulf of Mexico, across the shelf and into the estuaries by nesting the unstructured grid FVCOM in the Gulf of Mexico HYCOM. Both the observations and the model simulations revealed strong upwelling and vertical mixing followed by downwelling as the storm passed by. This was accompanied by a rapid drop in sea surface temperature of approximately 4ºC and large decreases in sea level with associated negative surges, causing drying in the Florida Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay estuaries and the Big Bend region. The transport and exchange of water between the shelf and the estuaries and between the shelf and the Florida Keys reef track during the hurricane may have important implications for ecosystem studies within the region.

A numerical model for the whole Wadden Sea: results on the hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gräwe, Ulf; Duran-Matute, Matias; Gerkema, Theo; Flöser, Götz; Burchard, Hans

2015-04-01

A high-resolution baroclinic three-dimensional numerical model for the entire Wadden Sea of the German Bight in the southern North Sea is first validated against field data for surface elevation, current velocity, temperature and salinity at selected stations and then used to calculate fluxes of volume, heat and salt inside the Wadden Sea and the exchange between the Wadden Sea and the adjacent North Sea through the major tidal inlets. The General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) is simulating the reference years 2009-2011. The numerical grid has a resolution of 200x200m and 30 adaptive vertical layers. It is the final stage of a multi-nested setup, starting from the North Atlantic. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the operational forecast of the German Weather Service. Additionally, the freshwater discharge of 23 local rivers and creeks are included. For validation, we use observations from a ship of opportunity measuring sea surface properties, tidal gauge stations, high frequency of salinity and volume transport estimates for the Mardiep and Spiekeroog inlet. Finally, the estuarine overturning circulation in three tidal gulleys is quantified. Regional differences between the gullies are assessed and drivers of the estuarine circulation are identified. Moreover, we will give a consistent estimate of the tidal prisms for all tidal inlets in the entire Wadden Sea.

Asteroseismology of KIC 7107778: a binary comprising almost identical subgiants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yaguang; Bedding, Timothy R.; Li, Tanda; Bi, Shaolan; Murphy, Simon J.; Corsaro, Enrico; Chen, Li; Tian, Zhijia

2018-05-01

We analyse an asteroseismic binary system: KIC 7107778, a non-eclipsing, unresolved target, with solar-like oscillations in both components. We used Kepler short cadence time series spanning nearly 2 yr to obtain the power spectrum. Oscillation mode parameters were determined using Bayesian inference and a nested sampling Monte Carlo algorithm with the DIAMONDS package. The power profiles of the two components fully overlap, indicating their close similarity. We modelled the two stars with MESA and calculated oscillation frequencies with GYRE. Stellar fundamental parameters (mass, radius, and age) were estimated by grid modelling with atmospheric parameters and the oscillation frequencies of l = 0, 2 modes as constraints. Most l = 1 mixed modes were identified with models searched using a bisection method. Stellar parameters for the two sub-giant stars are MA = 1.42 ± 0.06 M⊙, MB = 1.39 ± 0.03 M⊙, RA = 2.93 ± 0.05 R⊙, RB = 2.76 ± 0.04 R⊙, tA = 3.32 ± 0.54 Gyr and tB = 3.51 ± 0.33 Gyr. The mass difference of the system is ˜1 per cent. The results confirm their simultaneous birth and evolution, as is expected from binary formation. KIC 7107778 comprises almost identical twins, and is the first asteroseismic sub-giant binary to be detected.

Evaluation of load flow and grid expansion in a unit-commitment and expansion optimization model SciGRID International Conference on Power Grid Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senkpiel, Charlotte; Biener, Wolfgang; Shammugam, Shivenes; Längle, Sven

2018-02-01

Energy system models serve as a basis for long term system planning. Joint optimization of electricity generating technologies, storage systems and the electricity grid leads to lower total system cost compared to an approach in which the grid expansion follows a given technology portfolio and their distribution. Modelers often face the problem of finding a good tradeoff between computational time and the level of detail that can be modeled. This paper analyses the differences between a transport model and a DC load flow model to evaluate the validity of using a simple but faster transport model within the system optimization model in terms of system reliability. The main findings in this paper are that a higher regional resolution of a system leads to better results compared to an approach in which regions are clustered as more overloads can be detected. An aggregation of lines between two model regions compared to a line sharp representation has little influence on grid expansion within a system optimizer. In a DC load flow model overloads can be detected in a line sharp case, which is therefore preferred. Overall the regions that need to reinforce the grid are identified within the system optimizer. Finally the paper recommends the usage of a load-flow model to test the validity of the model results.

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2007-01-01

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

A spatial classification and database for management, research, and policy making: The Great Lakes aquatic habitat framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Lizhu; Riseng, Catherine M.; Mason, Lacey; Werhrly, Kevin; Rutherford, Edward; McKenna, James E.; Castiglione, Chris; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Infante, Dana M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Robertson, Mike; Schaeffer, Jeff; Khoury, Mary; Gaiot, John; Hollenhurst, Tom; Brooks, Colin N.; Coscarelli, Mark

2015-01-01

Managing the world's largest and most complex freshwater ecosystem, the Laurentian Great Lakes, requires a spatially hierarchical basin-wide database of ecological and socioeconomic information that is comparable across the region. To meet such a need, we developed a spatial classification framework and database — Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF). GLAHF consists of catchments, coastal terrestrial, coastal margin, nearshore, and offshore zones that encompass the entire Great Lakes Basin. The catchments captured in the database as river pour points or coastline segments are attributed with data known to influence physicochemical and biological characteristics of the lakes from the catchments. The coastal terrestrial zone consists of 30-m grid cells attributed with data from the terrestrial region that has direct connection with the lakes. The coastal margin and nearshore zones consist of 30-m grid cells attributed with data describing the coastline conditions, coastal human disturbances, and moderately to highly variable physicochemical and biological characteristics. The offshore zone consists of 1.8-km grid cells attributed with data that are spatially less variable compared with the other aquatic zones. These spatial classification zones and their associated data are nested within lake sub-basins and political boundaries and allow the synthesis of information from grid cells to classification zones, within and among political boundaries, lake sub-basins, Great Lakes, or within the entire Great Lakes Basin. This spatially structured database could help the development of basin-wide management plans, prioritize locations for funding and specific management actions, track protection and restoration progress, and conduct research for science-based decision making.

JIGSAW-GEO (1.0): Locally Orthogonal Staggered Unstructured Grid Generation for General Circulation Modelling on the Sphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engwirda, Darren

2017-01-01

An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally orthogonal staggered unstructured spheroidal grids is described. This technique is designed to generate very high-quality staggered VoronoiDelaunay meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather prediction. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of high-quality unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. A locally orthogonal polygonal grid, derived from the associated Voronoi diagram, is computed as the staggered dual. It is shown that use of the Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique allows for the generation of very high-quality unstructured triangulations, satisfying a priori bounds on element size and shape. Grid quality is further improved through the application of hill-climbing-type optimisation techniques. Overall, the algorithm is shown to produce grids with very high element quality and smooth grading characteristics, while imposing relatively low computational expense. A selection of uniform and non-uniform spheroidal grids appropriate for high-resolution, multi-scale general circulation modelling are presented. These grids are shown to satisfy the geometric constraints associated with contemporary unstructured C-grid-type finite-volume models, including the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-O). The use of user-defined mesh-spacing functions to generate smoothly graded, non-uniform grids for multi-resolution-type studies is discussed in detail.

JIGSAW-GEO (1.0): locally orthogonal staggered unstructured grid generation for general circulation modelling on the sphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engwirda, Darren

2017-06-01

An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally orthogonal staggered unstructured spheroidal grids is described. This technique is designed to generate very high-quality staggered Voronoi-Delaunay meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather prediction. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of high-quality unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. A locally orthogonal polygonal grid, derived from the associated Voronoi diagram, is computed as the staggered dual. It is shown that use of the Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique allows for the generation of very high-quality unstructured triangulations, satisfying a priori bounds on element size and shape. Grid quality is further improved through the application of hill-climbing-type optimisation techniques. Overall, the algorithm is shown to produce grids with very high element quality and smooth grading characteristics, while imposing relatively low computational expense. A selection of uniform and non-uniform spheroidal grids appropriate for high-resolution, multi-scale general circulation modelling are presented. These grids are shown to satisfy the geometric constraints associated with contemporary unstructured C-grid-type finite-volume models, including the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-O). The use of user-defined mesh-spacing functions to generate smoothly graded, non-uniform grids for multi-resolution-type studies is discussed in detail.

An Evaluation of Recently Developed RANS-Based Turbulence Models for Flow Over a Two-Dimensional Block Subjected to Different Mesh Structures and Grid Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kardan, Farshid; Cheng, Wai-Chi; Baverel, Olivier; Porté-Agel, Fernando

2016-04-01

Understanding, analyzing and predicting meteorological phenomena related to urban planning and built environment are becoming more essential than ever to architectural and urban projects. Recently, various version of RANS models have been established but more validation cases are required to confirm their capability for wind flows. In the present study, the performance of recently developed RANS models, including the RNG k-ɛ , SST BSL k-ω and SST ⪆mma-Reθ , have been evaluated for the flow past a single block (which represent the idealized architecture scale). For validation purposes, the velocity streamlines and the vertical profiles of the mean velocities and variances were compared with published LES and wind tunnel experiment results. Furthermore, other additional CFD simulations were performed to analyze the impact of regular/irregular mesh structures and grid resolutions based on selected turbulence model in order to analyze the grid independency. Three different grid resolutions (coarse, medium and fine) of Nx × Ny × Nz = 320 × 80 × 320, 160 × 40 × 160 and 80 × 20 × 80 for the computational domain and nx × nz = 26 × 32, 13 × 16 and 6 × 8, which correspond to number of grid points on the block edges, were chosen and tested. It can be concluded that among all simulated RANS models, the SST ⪆mma-Reθ model performed best and agreed fairly well to the LES simulation and experimental results. It can also be concluded that the SST ⪆mma-Reθ model provides a very satisfactory results in terms of grid dependency in the fine and medium grid resolutions in both regular and irregular structure meshes. On the other hand, despite a very good performance of the RNG k-ɛ model in the fine resolution and in the regular structure grids, a disappointing performance of this model in the coarse and medium grid resolutions indicates that the RNG k-ɛ model is highly dependent on grid structure and grid resolution. These quantitative validations are essential to access the accuracy of RANS models for the simulation of flow in urban environment.

NREL: International Activities - Country Programs

Science.gov Websites

for use of mini-grid quality assurance and design standards and advising on mini-grid business models communities of practice and technical collaboration across countries on mini-grid development, modeling and interconnection standards and procedures, and with strengthening mini-grids and energy access programs. NREL is

Evaluating hydrography, circulation and transport in a coastal archipelago using a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuomi, Laura; Miettunen, Elina; Alenius, Pekka; Myrberg, Kai

2018-04-01

We used a 3D hydrodynamic model, COHERENS, to simulate the temperature, salinity and currents in an extremely complicated area, the Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea. The high-resolution model domain with approximately 460 m resolution was nested inside a coarser resolution ( 3.7 km) grid covering the entire Baltic Sea. The verification of the model results against temperature and salinity measurements showed that the model well captured the seasonal temperature cycle in the surface layer, both in the inner and outer archipelago. In the inner archipelago, the model tended to reproduce higher temperatures in the bottom layer than were measured. The modelled vertical temperature and salinity stratifications were not as pronounced as the measured ones but did describe the overall vertical structure. There was large year-to-year variability in the annual mean surface circulation, both in direction and magnitude. In the deeper channels crossing the Archipelago Sea, there were some year-to-year differences in the magnitudes of the bottom layer currents, but there was very little difference in the directions. These differences were studied by introducing passive tracers into the model through river discharge and as point sources. The results showed that the prevailing wind conditions resulted in southward net transport from the Bothnian Sea towards the Baltic Proper. However, due to the variability in the wind conditions in some years, a significant proportion of transport can also be towards north, from the Baltic Proper to the Bothnian Sea.

The Hornsund fjord - modeling of the general circulation, heat exchange and water masses transport.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przyborska, Anna; Jakacki, Jaromir; Kosecki, Szymon; Sundfjord, Arild

2015-04-01

The MIKE3D hydrodynamic model has been implemented for diagnosis an ecosystem status in the most southern fjord of the Svalbard Archipelago. The model is based on MIKE 3 Flow Model FM that uses flexible mesh grid. The spatial discretization in solutions of equations is performed by the finite element method. The regional scale of the model implicated implementation of external data at the lateral boundary region. In our case Flather's boundary condition let us to force the model with combined information. At the same time tidal ordinate and barotropic component of velocity that reflects the West Spitsbergen Current are implemented. Also salinity and temperature were nested at the boundary area. The upper boundary conditions was also introduced. The data for the boundary were taken from Global Tide Model (all tidal components), an 800 m ROMS simulation of the Svalbard area made by the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (bartoropic velocities, temperature and salinity), European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and also from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Implemented model was validated and the mean circulation and its seasonal variability will be presented. Also influence of the shelf water masses on the fjord will be discussed. Fresh water transport from glaciers, run off and snow will be estimated. Results are based on 5 years simulation (2005-2010) This work was partially performed in the frame of the projects GAME (DEC-2012/04/A/NZ8/00661) and AWAKE2 (Pol-Nor/198675/17/2013)

Application Note: Power Grid Modeling With Xyce.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sholander, Peter E.

This application note describes how to model steady-state power flows and transient events in electric power grids with the SPICE-compatible Xyce TM Parallel Electronic Simulator developed at Sandia National Labs. This application notes provides a brief tutorial on the basic devices (branches, bus shunts, transformers and generators) found in power grids. The focus is on the features supported and assumptions made by the Xyce models for power grid elements. It then provides a detailed explanation, including working Xyce netlists, for simulating some simple power grid examples such as the IEEE 14-bus test case.

PARADIGM USING JOINT DETERMINISTIC GRID MODELING AND SUB-GRID VARIABILITY STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION AS A TEMPLATE FOR MODEL EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of achieving verisimilitude of air quality simulations to observations is problematic. Chemical transport models such as the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system produce volume averages of pollutant concentration fields. When grid sizes are such tha...

Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

Large Eddy Simulation of Wall-Bounded Turbulent Flows with the Lattice Boltzmann Method: Effect of Collision Model, SGS Model and Grid Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Aniruddhe; Akhavan, Rayhaneh

2017-11-01

Effect of collision model, subgrid-scale model and grid resolution in Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of wall-bounded turbulent flows with the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) is investigated in turbulent channel flow. The Single Relaxation Time (SRT) collision model is found to be more accurate than Multi-Relaxation Time (MRT) collision model in well-resolved LES. Accurate LES requires grid resolutions of Δ+ <= 4 in the near-wall region, which is comparable to Δ+ <= 2 required in DNS. At larger grid resolutions SRT becomes unstable, while MRT remains stable but gives unacceptably large errors. LES with no model gave errors comparable to the Dynamic Smagorinsky Model (DSM) and the Wall Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity (WALE) model. The resulting errors in the prediction of the friction coefficient in turbulent channel flow at a bulk Reynolds Number of 7860 (Reτ 442) with Δ+ = 4 and no-model, DSM and WALE were 1.7%, 2.6%, 3.1% with SRT, and 8.3% 7.5% 8.7% with MRT, respectively. These results suggest that LES of wall-bounded turbulent flows with LBM requires either grid-embedding in the near-wall region, with grid resolutions comparable to DNS, or a wall model. Results of LES with grid-embedding and wall models will be discussed.

PECHCV, PECHFV, PEFHCV and PEFHFV: A set of atmospheric, primitive equation forecast models for the Northern Hemisphere, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wellck, R. E.; Pearce, M. L.

1976-01-01

As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, a set of four hemispheric, atmospheric prediction models were developed. The models, which use a polar stereographic grid in the horizontal and a sigma coordinate in the vertical, are: (1) PECHCV - five sigma layers and a 63 x 63 horizontal grid, (2) PECHFV - ten sigma layers and a 63 x 63 horizontal grid, (3) PEFHCV - five sigma layers and a 187 x 187 horizontal grid, and (4) PEFHFV - ten sigma layers and a 187 x 187 horizontal grid. The models and associated computer programs are described.

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland-nesting birds.

PubMed

Fogarty, Dillon T; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Loss, Scott R

2017-08-01

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground-nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), and Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory-related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species' nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness-related benefits.

GOW2.0: A global wave hindcast of high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Perez, Jorge; Losada, Inigo

2016-04-01

The information provided by reconstructions of historical wind generated waves is of paramount importance for a variety of coastal and offshore purposes (e.g. risk assessment, design of costal structures and coastal management). Here, a new global wave hindcast (GOW2.0) is presented. This hindcast is an update of GOW1.0 (Reguero et al. 2012) motivated by the emergence of new settings and atmospheric information from reanalysis during recent years. GOW2.0 is based on version 4.18 of WaveWatch III numerical model (Tolman, 2014). Main features of the model set-up are the analysis and selection of recent source terms concerning wave generation and dissipation (Ardhuin et al. 2010, Zieger et al., 2015) and the implementation of obstruction grids to improve the modeling of wave shadowing effects in line with the approach described in Chawla and Tolman (2007). This has been complemented by a multigrid system and the use of the hourly wind and ice coverage from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR (30km spatial resolution approximately). The multigrid scheme consists of a series of "two-way" nested domains covering the whole ocean basins at a 0.5° spatial resolution and continental shelfs worldwide at a 0.25° spatial resolution. In addition, a technique to reconstruct wave 3D spectra for any grid-point is implemented from spectral partitioning information. A validation analysis of GOW2.0 outcomes has been undertaken considering wave spectral information from surface buoy stations and multi-mission satellite data for a spatial validation. GOW2.0 shows a substantial improvement over its predecessor for all the analyzed variables. In summary, GOW2.0 reconstructs historical wave spectral data and climate information from 1979 to present at hourly resolution providing higher spatial resolution over regions where local generated wind seas, bimodal-spectral behaviour and relevant swell transformations across the continental shelf are important. Ardhuin F, Rogers E, Babanin AV, et al (2010). Semiempirical Dissipation Source Functions for Ocean Waves. Part I: Definition, Calibration, and Validation. J Phys Oceanogr. 2010;40(9):1917-1941. doi:10.1175/2010JPO4324.1. Chawla A, Tolman HL. Obstruction grids for spectral wave models. Ocean Model. 2008;22(1-2):12-25. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.01.003. Reguero BG, Menendez M, Mendez FJ, Minguez R, Losada IJ (2012). A Global Ocean Wave (GOW) calibrated reanalysis from 1948 onwards. Coastal Engineering, 65, 38-55. Tolman HL (2014). User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 4.18. NOAA / NWS / NCEP / MMAB Tech Note. Zieger S, Babanin AV, Rogers WE, Young IR (2015). Observation-based source terms in the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH. Ocean Modelling, 96, 2-25.

Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

2012-01-01

Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…

Stability assessment of a multi-port power electronic interface for hybrid micro-grid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsi, Pourya

Migration to an industrial society increases the demand for electrical energy. Meanwhile, social causes for preserving the environment and reducing pollutions seek cleaner forms of energy sources. Therefore, there has been a growth in distributed generation from renewable sources in the past decade. Existing regulations and power system coordination does not allow for massive integration of distributed generation throughout the grid. Moreover, the current infrastructures are not designed for interfacing distributed and deregulated generation. In order to remedy this problem, a hybrid micro-grid based on nano-grids is introduced. This system consists of a reliable micro-grid structure that provides a smooth transition from the current distribution networks to smart micro-grid systems. Multi-port power electronic interfaces are introduced to manage the local generation, storage, and consumption. Afterwards, a model for this micro-grid is derived. Using this model, the stability of the system under a variety of source and load induced disturbances is studied. Moreover, pole-zero study of the micro-grid is performed under various loading conditions. An experimental setup of this micro-grid is developed, and the validity of the model in emulating the dynamic behavior of the system is verified. This study provides a theory for a novel hybrid micro-grid as well as models for stability assessment of the proposed micro-grid.

Optimal variable-grid finite-difference modeling for porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinxin; Yin, Xingyao; Li, Haishan

2014-12-01

Numerical modeling of poroelastic waves by the finite-difference (FD) method is more expensive than that of acoustic or elastic waves. To improve the accuracy and computational efficiency of seismic modeling, variable-grid FD methods have been developed. In this paper, we derived optimal staggered-grid finite difference schemes with variable grid-spacing and time-step for seismic modeling in porous media. FD operators with small grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for low-velocity or small-scale geological bodies, while FD operators with big grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for high-velocity or large-scale regions. The dispersion relations of FD schemes were derived based on the plane wave theory, then the FD coefficients were obtained using the Taylor expansion. Dispersion analysis and modeling results demonstrated that the proposed method has higher accuracy with lower computational cost for poroelastic wave simulation in heterogeneous reservoirs.

Consequences of least tern (Sternula antillarum) microhabitat nest-site selection on natural and mechanically constructed sandbars in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stucker, Jennifer H.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Sherfy, Mark H.

2013-01-01

Nest-habitat selection in colonial species has rarely been assessed at multiple spatial scales to evaluate its fitness consequences. Management for the federally endangered U.S. Interior population of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) has focused on maintenance of breeding habitats, including mechanical construction of sandbars from dredged material. Least Terns are attracted to large areas of unvegetated substrate, yet small-scale habitat features are thought to trigger selection for nesting. We evaluated nest-scale habitat selection to determine (1) whether selection differs between constructed and natural sandbars and (2) the subsequent consequences of habitat selection on nest success. During 2006–2008, we examined 869 Least Tern nest sites on constructed and natural sandbars in the Missouri River for evidence of microhabitat selection at the nest in relation to habitat within the surrounding 3-m area. Least Tern nest sites had coarser and larger substrate materials at the nest, more debris, and less vegetation than the surrounding area. Nests in constructed habitats had a greater percentage of coarse substrates and less vegetation or debris than nests in naturally created habitats. Apparent nest success was 1.8× greater on constructed than on natural sandbars. Nest success was best predicted by models with two spatial scales of predictors, including substrates (nest) and vegetation and debris (nest or surrounding area). Our results indicate that Least Terns select nest microhabitat characteristics that are associated with wind- and water-scoured habitats, and that nest success increases when these habitats are selected.

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Gujarat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Andhra Pradesh is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Tamil Nadu

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Tamil Nadu is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Rajasthan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Andhra Pradesh is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Andhra Pradesh

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Andhra Pradesh is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Karnataka

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Andhra Pradesh is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Regional Study: Maharashtra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M; Palchak, Joseph D; Ehlen, Annaliese K

This chapter on Andhra Pradesh is one of six state chapters included in Appendix C of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study). The objective of the state chapters is to provide modeling assumptions, results, and next steps to use and improve the model specific to each state. The model has inherent uncertainties, particularly in how the intrastate transmission network and RE generation projects will develop (e.g., locations, capacities). The model also does not include information on contracts or must-run status of particular plantsmore » for reliability purposes. By providing details on the higher spatial resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.'« less

Network-based model of the growth of termite nests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Young-Ho; Perna, Andrea; Fortunato, Santo; Darrouzet, Eric; Theraulaz, Guy; Jost, Christian

2015-12-01

We present a model for the growth of the transportation network inside nests of the social insect subfamily Termitinae (Isoptera, termitidae). These nests consist of large chambers (nodes) connected by tunnels (edges). The model based on the empirical analysis of the real nest networks combined with pruning (edge removal, either random or weighted by betweenness centrality) and a memory effect (preferential growth from the latest added chambers) successfully predicts emergent nest properties (degree distribution, size of the largest connected component, average path lengths, backbone link ratios, and local graph redundancy). The two pruning alternatives can be associated with different genuses in the subfamily. A sensitivity analysis on the pruning and memory parameters indicates that Termitinae networks favor fast internal transportation over efficient defense strategies against ant predators. Our results provide an example of how complex network organization and efficient network properties can be generated from simple building rules based on local interactions and contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that come into play for the formation of termite networks and of biological transportation networks in general.

Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

PubMed

López-Uribe, Margarita M; Morreale, Stephen J; Santiago, Christine K; Danforth, Bryan N

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators.

Nest Suitability, Fine-Scale Population Structure and Male-Mediated Dispersal of a Solitary Ground Nesting Bee in an Urban Landscape

PubMed Central

López-Uribe, Margarita M.; Morreale, Stephen J.; Santiago, Christine K.; Danforth, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei’s GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators. PMID:25950429

Tests of landscape influence: Nest predation and brood parasitism in fragmented ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tewksbury, J.J.; Garner, L.; Garner, S.; Lloyd, J.D.; Saab, V.; Martin, T.E.

2006-01-01

The effects of landscape fragmentation on nest predation and brood parasitism, the two primary causes of avian reproductive failure, have been difficult to generalize across landscapes, yet few studies have clearly considered the context and spatial scale of fragmentation. Working in two river systems fragmented by agricultural and rural-housing development, we tracked nesting success and brood parasitism in >2500 bird nests in 38 patches of deciduous riparian woodland. Patches on both river systems were embedded in one of two local contexts (buffered from agriculture by coniferous forest, or adjacent to agriculture), but the abundance of agriculture and human habitation within 1 km of each patch was highly variable. We examined evidence for three models of landscape effects on nest predation based on (1) the relative importance of generalist agricultural nest predators, (2) predators associated with the natural habitats typically removed by agricultural development, or (3) an additive combination of these two predator communities. We found strong support for an additive predation model in which landscape features affect nest predation differently at different spatial scales. Riparian habitat with forest buffers had higher nest predation rates than sites adjacent to agriculture, but nest predation also increased with increasing agriculture in the larger landscape surrounding each site. These results suggest that predators living in remnant woodland buffers, as well as generalist nest predators associated with agriculture, affect nest predation rates, but they appear to respond at different spatial scales. Brood parasitism, in contrast, was unrelated to agricultural abundance on the landscape, but showed a strong nonlinear relationship with farm and house density, indicating a critical point at which increased human habitat causes increased brood parasitism. Accurate predictions regarding landscape effects on nest predation and brood parasitism will require an increased appreciation of the multiple scales at which landscape components influence predator and parasite behavior. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Grid computing enhances standards-compatible geospatial catalogue service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Aijun; Di, Liping; Bai, Yuqi; Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Yang

2010-04-01

A catalogue service facilitates sharing, discovery, retrieval, management of, and access to large volumes of distributed geospatial resources, for example data, services, applications, and their replicas on the Internet. Grid computing provides an infrastructure for effective use of computing, storage, and other resources available online. The Open Geospatial Consortium has proposed a catalogue service specification and a series of profiles for promoting the interoperability of geospatial resources. By referring to the profile of the catalogue service for Web, an innovative information model of a catalogue service is proposed to offer Grid-enabled registry, management, retrieval of and access to geospatial resources and their replicas. This information model extends the e-business registry information model by adopting several geospatial data and service metadata standards—the International Organization for Standardization (ISO)'s 19115/19119 standards and the US Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) and US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) metadata standards for describing and indexing geospatial resources. In order to select the optimal geospatial resources and their replicas managed by the Grid, the Grid data management service and information service from the Globus Toolkits are closely integrated with the extended catalogue information model. Based on this new model, a catalogue service is implemented first as a Web service. Then, the catalogue service is further developed as a Grid service conforming to Grid service specifications. The catalogue service can be deployed in both the Web and Grid environments and accessed by standard Web services or authorized Grid services, respectively. The catalogue service has been implemented at the George Mason University/Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems (GMU/CSISS), managing more than 17 TB of geospatial data and geospatial Grid services. This service makes it easy to share and interoperate geospatial resources by using Grid technology and extends Grid technology into the geoscience communities.

A multi-resolution approach to electromagnetic modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherevatova, M.; Egbert, G. D.; Smirnov, M. Yu

2018-04-01

We present a multi-resolution approach for three-dimensional magnetotelluric forward modeling. Our approach is motivated by the fact that fine grid resolution is typically required at shallow levels to adequately represent near surface inhomogeneities, topography, and bathymetry, while a much coarser grid may be adequate at depth where the diffusively propagating electromagnetic fields are much smoother. This is especially true for forward modeling required in regularized inversion, where conductivity variations at depth are generally very smooth. With a conventional structured finite-difference grid the fine discretization required to adequately represent rapid variations near the surface are continued to all depths, resulting in higher computational costs. Increasing the computational efficiency of the forward modeling is especially important for solving regularized inversion problems. We implement a multi-resolution finite-difference scheme that allows us to decrease the horizontal grid resolution with depth, as is done with vertical discretization. In our implementation, the multi-resolution grid is represented as a vertical stack of sub-grids, with each sub-grid being a standard Cartesian tensor product staggered grid. Thus, our approach is similar to the octree discretization previously used for electromagnetic modeling, but simpler in that we allow refinement only with depth. The major difficulty arose in deriving the forward modeling operators on interfaces between adjacent sub-grids. We considered three ways of handling the interface layers and suggest a preferable one, which results in similar accuracy as the staggered grid solution, while retaining the symmetry of coefficient matrix. A comparison between multi-resolution and staggered solvers for various models show that multi-resolution approach improves on computational efficiency without compromising the accuracy of the solution.

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, K.P.; DeStefano, S.

2011-01-01

The common loon (Gavia immer) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success (P = 0.595, R 2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007-2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Don't put all your eggs in one nest: spread them and cut time at risk.

PubMed

Andersson, Malte; Åhlund, Matti

2012-09-01

In many egg-laying animals, some females spread their clutch among several nests. The fitness effects of this reproductive tactic are obscure. Using mathematical modeling and field observations, we analyze an unexplored benefit of egg spreading in brood parasitic and other breeding systems: reduced time at risk for offspring. If a clutch takes many days to lay until incubation and embryo development starts after the last egg, by spreading her eggs a parasitic female can reduce offspring time in the vulnerable nest at risk of predation or other destruction. The model suggests that she can achieve much of this benefit by spreading her eggs among a few nests, even if her total clutch is large. Field data from goldeneye ducks Bucephala clangula show that egg spreading enables a fecund female to lay a clutch that is much larger than average without increasing offspring time at risk in a nest. This advantage increases with female condition (fecundity) and can markedly raise female reproductive success. These results help explain the puzzle of nesting parasites in some precocial birds, which lay eggs in the nests of other females before laying eggs in their own nest. Risk reduction by egg spreading may also play a role in the evolution of other breeding systems and taxa-for instance, polyandry with male parental care in some birds and fishes.

Nested Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baram, Yoram

1992-01-01

Report presents analysis of nested neural networks, consisting of interconnected subnetworks. Analysis based on simplified mathematical models more appropriate for artificial electronic neural networks, partly applicable to biological neural networks. Nested structure allows for retrieval of individual subpatterns. Requires fewer wires and connection devices than fully connected networks, and allows for local reconstruction of damaged subnetworks without rewiring entire network.

DEM Based Modeling: Grid or TIN? The Answer Depends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, F. L.; Moreno, H. A.

2015-12-01

The availability of petascale supercomputing power has enabled process-based hydrological simulations on large watersheds and two-way coupling with mesoscale atmospheric models. Of course with increasing watershed scale come corresponding increases in watershed complexity, including wide ranging water management infrastructure and objectives, and ever increasing demands for forcing data. Simulations of large watersheds using grid-based models apply a fixed resolution over the entire watershed. In large watersheds, this means an enormous number of grids, or coarsening of the grid resolution to reduce memory requirements. One alternative to grid-based methods is the triangular irregular network (TIN) approach. TINs provide the flexibility of variable resolution, which allows optimization of computational resources by providing high resolution where necessary and low resolution elsewhere. TINs also increase required effort in model setup, parameter estimation, and coupling with forcing data which are often gridded. This presentation discusses the costs and benefits of the use of TINs compared to grid-based methods, in the context of large watershed simulations within the traditional gridded WRF-HYDRO framework and the new TIN-based ADHydro high performance computing watershed simulator.

HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

EPA Science Inventory

High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

Spawning chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass during benign streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

We documented the nesting chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in an upstream (4th order) and downstream (5th order) reach of Baron Fork Creek, Oklahoma. Males started nesting in mid-Apr. when water temperatures increased to 16.9 C upstream, and in late-Apr. when temperatures increased to 16.2 C downstream. Streamflows were low (77% upstream to 82% downstream of mean Apr. streamflow, and 12 and 18% of meanjun. streamflow; 47 and 55 y of record), and decreased throughout the spawning period. Larger males nested first upstream, as has been observed in other populations, but not downstream. Upstream, progeny in 62 of 153 nests developed to swim-up stage. Downstream, progeny in 31 of 73 nests developed to swim-up. Nesting densities upstream (147/km) and downstream (100/km) were both higher than any densities previously reported. Males selected nest sites with intermediate water depths, low water velocity and near cover, behavior that is typical of smallmouth bass. Documented nest failures resulted from human disturbance, angling, and longear sunfish predation. Logistic exposure models showed that water velocity at the nest was negatively related and length of the guarding male was positively related to nest success upstream. Male length and number of degree days were both positively related to nest success downstream. Our results, and those of other studies, suggest that biological factors account for most nest failures during benign (stable, low flow) streamflow conditions, whereas nest failures attributed to substrate mobility or nest abandonment dominate when harsh streamflow conditions (spring floods) coincide with the spawning season.

Potential Influences of Climate and Nest Structure on Spotted Owl Reproductive Success: A Biophysical Approach

PubMed Central

Rockweit, Jeremy T.; Franklin, Alan B.; Bakken, George S.; Gutiérrez, R. J.

2012-01-01

Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (hc) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of hc in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (∼36°C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ∼26°C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season. PMID:22859993

A Dynamical Downscaling study over the Great Lakes Region Using WRF-Lake: Historical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.

2014-12-01

As the largest group of fresh water bodies on Earth, the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influence on local and regional weather and climate through their unique physical features compared with the surrounding land. Due to the limited spatial resolution and computational efficiency of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored or idealized into several grid cells in GCMs. Thus, the nested regional climate modeling (RCM) technique, known as dynamical downscaling, serves as a feasible solution to fill the gap. The latest Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to dynamically downscale the historical simulation produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Model (GFDL-CM3) from 1970-2005. An updated lake scheme originated from the Community Land Model is implemented in the latest WRF version 3.6. It is a one-dimensional mass and energy balance scheme with 20-25 model layers, including up to 5 snow layers on the lake ice, 10 water layers, and 10 soil layers on the lake bottom. The lake scheme is used with actual lake points and lake depth. The preliminary results show that WRF-Lake model, with a fine horizontal resolution and realistic lake representation, provides significantly improved hydroclimates, in terms of lake surface temperature, annual cycle of precipitation, ice content, and lake-effect snowfall. Those improvements suggest that better resolution of the lakes and the mesoscale process of lake-atmosphere interaction are crucial to understanding the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.

Meteorological Simulations of Ozone Episode Case Days during the 1996 Paso del Norte Ozone Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, M.J.; Costigan, K.; Muller, C.

1999-02-01

Meteorological simulations centered around the border cities of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez have been performed during an ozone episode that occurred on Aug. 13,1996 during the 1996 Paso del Norte Ozone Study field campaign. Simulations were petiormed using the HOTMAC mesoscale meteorological model using a 1,2,4, and 8 km horizontal grid size nested mesh system. Investigation of the vertical structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer for the Aug. 11-13 time period is emphasized in this paper. Comparison of model-produced wind speed profiles to rawirisonde and radar profiler measurements shows reasonable agreement. A persistent upper-level jet was capturedmore » in the model simulations through data assimilation. In the evening hours, the model was not able to produce the strong wind direction shear seen in the radar wind profiles. Based on virtual potential temperature profile comparisons, the model appears to correctly simulate the daytime growth of the convective mixed layer. However, the model underestimates the cooling of the surface layer at night. We found that the upper-level jet significantly impacted the turbulence structure of the boundary layer, leading to relatively high turbulent kinetic energy (tke) values aloft at night. The model indicates that these high tke values aloft enhance the mid-morning growth of the boundary layer. No upper-level turbulence measurements were available to verify this finding, however. Radar profiler-derived mixing heights do indicate relatively rapid morning growth of the mixed layer.« less

Construction patterns of birds’ nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours

PubMed Central

Goodman, Adrian M.

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a “twig” nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process. PMID:28265501

Grid convergence errors in hemodynamic solution of patient-specific cerebral aneurysms.

PubMed

Hodis, Simona; Uthamaraj, Susheil; Smith, Andrea L; Dennis, Kendall D; Kallmes, David F; Dragomir-Daescu, Dan

2012-11-15

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become a cutting-edge tool for investigating hemodynamic dysfunctions in the body. It has the potential to help physicians quantify in more detail the phenomena difficult to capture with in vivo imaging techniques. CFD simulations in anatomically realistic geometries pose challenges in generating accurate solutions due to the grid distortion that may occur when the grid is aligned with complex geometries. In addition, results obtained with computational methods should be trusted only after the solution has been verified on multiple high-quality grids. The objective of this study was to present a comprehensive solution verification of the intra-aneurysmal flow results obtained on different morphologies of patient-specific cerebral aneurysms. We chose five patient-specific brain aneurysm models with different dome morphologies and estimated the grid convergence errors for each model. The grid convergence errors were estimated with respect to an extrapolated solution based on the Richardson extrapolation method, which accounts for the degree of grid refinement. For four of the five models, calculated velocity, pressure, and wall shear stress values at six different spatial locations converged monotonically, with maximum uncertainty magnitudes ranging from 12% to 16% on the finest grids. Due to the geometric complexity of the fifth model, the grid convergence errors showed oscillatory behavior; therefore, each patient-specific model required its own grid convergence study to establish the accuracy of the analysis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examples of grid generation with implicitly specified surfaces using GridPro (TM)/az3000. 1: Filleted multi-tube configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Zheming; Eiseman, Peter R.

1995-01-01

With examples, we illustrate how implicitly specified surfaces can be used for grid generation with GridPro/az3000. The particular examples address two questions: (1) How do you model intersecting tubes with fillets? and (2) How do you generate grids inside the intersected tubes? The implication is much more general. With the results in a forthcoming paper which develops an easy-to-follow procedure for implicit surface modeling, we provide a powerful means for rapid prototyping in grid generation.

A comparative study of turbulence models for overset grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Renze, Kevin J.; Buning, Pieter G.; Rajagopalan, R. G.

1992-01-01

The implementation of two different types of turbulence models for a flow solver using the Chimera overset grid method is examined. Various turbulence model characteristics, such as length scale determination and transition modeling, are found to have a significant impact on the computed pressure distribution for a multielement airfoil case. No inherent problem is found with using either algebraic or one-equation turbulence models with an overset grid scheme, but simulation of turbulence for multiple-body or complex geometry flows is very difficult regardless of the gridding method. For complex geometry flowfields, modification of the Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model is necessary to select the appropriate length scale in wall-bounded regions. The overset grid approach presents no obstacle to use of a one- or two-equation turbulence model. Both Baldwin-Lomax and Baldwin-Barth models have problems providing accurate eddy viscosity levels for complex multiple-body flowfields such as those involving the Space Shuttle.

Impact of Considering 110 kV Grid Structures on the Congestion Management in the German Transmission Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffrichter, André; Barrios, Hans; Massmann, Janek; Venkataramanachar, Bhavasagar; Schnettler, Armin

2018-02-01

The structural changes in the European energy system lead to an increase of renewable energy sources that are primarily connected to the distribution grid. Hence the stationary analysis of the transmission grid and the regionalization of generation capacities are strongly influenced by subordinate grid structures. To quantify the impact on the congestion management in the German transmission grid, a 110 kV grid model is derived using publicly available data delivered by Open Street Map and integrated into an existing model of the European transmission grid. Power flow and redispatch simulations are performed for three different regionalization methods and grid configurations. The results show a significant impact of the 110 kV system and prove an overestimation of power flows in the transmission grid when neglecting subordinate grids. Thus, the redispatch volume in Germany to dissolve bottlenecks in case of N-1 contingencies decreases by 38 % when considering the 110 kV grid.

LPV Modeling of a Flexible Wing Aircraft Using Modal Alignment and Adaptive Gridding Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Zhu, Guoming; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Su, Weihua; Nguyen, Nhan T.

2017-01-01

One of the earliest approaches in gain-scheduling control is the gridding based approach, in which a set of local linear time-invariant models are obtained at various gridded points corresponding to the varying parameters within the flight envelop. In order to ensure smooth and effective Linear Parameter-Varying control, aligning all the flexible modes within each local model and maintaining small number of representative local models over the gridded parameter space are crucial. In addition, since the flexible structural models tend to have large dimensions, a tractable model reduction process is necessary. In this paper, the notion of s-shifted H2- and H Infinity-norm are introduced and used as a metric to measure the model mismatch. A new modal alignment algorithm is developed which utilizes the defined metric for aligning all the local models over the entire gridded parameter space. Furthermore, an Adaptive Grid Step Size Determination algorithm is developed to minimize the number of local models required to represent the gridded parameter space. For model reduction, we propose to utilize the concept of Composite Modal Cost Analysis, through which the collective contribution of each flexible mode is computed and ranked. Therefore, a reduced-order model is constructed by retaining only those modes with significant contribution. The NASA Generic Transport Model operating at various flight speeds is studied for verification purpose, and the analysis and simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach.

Technical manual for basic version of the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

User’s manual for basic version of MCnest Markov chain nest productivity model

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

High Resolution Forecasting System for Mountain area based on KLAPS-WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, Ji Min; Rang Kim, Kyu; Lee, Seon-Yong; Kang, Wee Soo; Park, Jong Sun; Yi, Chae Yeon; Choi, Young-jean; Park, Eun Woo; Hong, Soon Sung; Jung, Hyun-Sook

2013-04-01

This paper reviews the results of recent observations and simulations on the thermal belt and cold air drainage, which are outstanding in local climatic phenomena in mountain areas. In a mountain valley, cold air pool and thermal belt were simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model and the Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) to determine the impacts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and topography resolution on model performance. Using the KLAPS-WRF models, an information system was developed for 12 hour forecasting of cold air damage in orchard. This system was conducted on a three level nested grid from 1 km to 111 m horizontal resolution. Results of model runs were verified by the data from automated weather stations, which were installed at twelve sites in a valley at Yeonsuri, Yangpyeonggun, Gyeonggido to measure temperature and wind speed and direction during March to May 2012. The potential of the numerical model to simulate these local features was found to be dependent on the planetary boundary layer schemes. Statistical verification results indicate that Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme was in good agreement with night time temperature, while the no-PBL scheme produced predictions similar to the day time temperature observation. Although the KLAPS-WRF system underestimates temperature in mountain areas and overestimates wind speed, it produced an accurate description of temperature, with an RMSE of 1.67 ˚C in clear daytime. Wind speed and direction were not forecasted well in precision (RMSE: 5.26 m/s and 10.12 degree). It might have been caused by the measurement uncertainty and spatial variability. Additionally, the performance of KLAPS-WRF was performed to evaluate for different terrain resolution: Topography data were improved from USGS (United States Geological Survey) 30" to NGII (National Geographic Information Institute) 10 m. The simulated results were quantitatively compared to observations and there was a significant improvement (RMSE: 2.06 ˚C -> 1.73 ˚C) in the temperature prediction in the study area. The results will provide useful guidance of grid size selection on high resolution simulation over the mountain regions in Korea.

Field Margins, Foraging Distances and Their Impacts on Nesting Pollinator Success

PubMed Central

Rands, Sean A.; Whitney, Heather M.

2011-01-01

The areas of wild land around the edges of agricultural fields are a vital resource for many species. These include insect pollinators, to whom field margins provide both nest sites and important resources (especially when adjacent crops are not in flower). Nesting pollinators travel relatively short distances from the nest to forage: most species of bee are known to travel less than two kilometres away. In order to ensure that these pollinators have sufficient areas of wild land within reach of their nests, agricultural landscapes need to be designed to accommodate the limited travelling distances of nesting pollinators. We used a spatially-explicit modelling approach to consider whether increasing the width of wild strips of land within the agricultural landscape will enhance the amount of wild resources available to a nesting pollinator, and if it would impact differently on pollinators with differing foraging strategies. This was done both by creating field structures with a randomised geography, and by using landscape data based upon the British agricultural landscape. These models demonstrate that enhancing field margins should lead to an increase in the availability of forage to pollinators that nest within the landscape. With the exception of species that only forage within a very short range of their nest (less than 125 m), a given amount of field margin manipulation should enhance the proportion of land available to a pollinator for foraging regardless of the distance over which it normally travels to find food. A fixed amount of field edge manipulation should therefore be equally beneficial for both longer-distance nesting foragers such as honeybees, and short-distance foragers such as solitary bees. PMID:21991390

MODFLOW-LGR-Modifications to the streamflow-routing package (SFR2) to route streamflow through locally refined grids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mehl, Steffen W.; Hill, Mary C.

2011-01-01

This report documents modifications to the Streamflow-Routing Package (SFR2) to route streamflow through grids constructed using the multiple-refined-areas capability of shared node Local Grid Refinement (LGR) of MODFLOW-2005. MODFLOW-2005 is the U.S. Geological Survey modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow model. LGR provides the capability to simulate groundwater flow by using one or more block-shaped, higher resolution local grids (child model) within a coarser grid (parent model). LGR accomplishes this by iteratively coupling separate MODFLOW-2005 models such that heads and fluxes are balanced across the shared interfacing boundaries. Compatibility with SFR2 allows for streamflow routing across grids. LGR can be used in two- and three-dimensional, steady-state and transient simulations and for simulations of confined and unconfined groundwater systems.

RCS of fundamental scatterers in the HF band by wire-grid modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trueman, C. W.; Kubina, S. J.

To extract the maximum information from the return of a radar target such as an aircraft, the target's scattering properties must be well known. Wire grid modeling allows a detailed representation of the surface of a complex scatterer such as an aircraft, in the frequency range where the aircraft size is comparable to a wavelength. A moment method analysis determines the currents on the wires of the grid including the interactions between all parts of the structure. Wire grid models of fundamental scatterers (plates, strips, cubes, and spheres) of sizes comparable to the wavelength in the 2-30 MHz range are analyzed. The study of the radar cross section (RCS) of wire grids in comparison with measured RCS data helps to establish guidelines for building wire grid models, specifying such parameters as where to locate wires, how short the segments must be, and what radius to use. The guidelines so developed can then be applied to build wire grid models of much more complex bodies such as aircraft with much greater confidence.

Semantic web data warehousing for caGrid.

PubMed

McCusker, James P; Phillips, Joshua A; González Beltrán, Alejandra; Finkelstein, Anthony; Krauthammer, Michael

2009-10-01

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) is developing caGrid as a means for sharing cancer-related data and services. As more data sets become available on caGrid, we need effective ways of accessing and integrating this information. Although the data models exposed on caGrid are semantically well annotated, it is currently up to the caGrid client to infer relationships between the different models and their classes. In this paper, we present a Semantic Web-based data warehouse (Corvus) for creating relationships among caGrid models. This is accomplished through the transformation of semantically-annotated caBIG Unified Modeling Language (UML) information models into Web Ontology Language (OWL) ontologies that preserve those semantics. We demonstrate the validity of the approach by Semantic Extraction, Transformation and Loading (SETL) of data from two caGrid data sources, caTissue and caArray, as well as alignment and query of those sources in Corvus. We argue that semantic integration is necessary for integration of data from distributed web services and that Corvus is a useful way of accomplishing this. Our approach is generalizable and of broad utility to researchers facing similar integration challenges.

An adaptive grid to improve the efficiency and accuracy of modelling underwater noise from shipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, Leah; Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Ingram, Simon; Embling, Clare

2017-04-01

Underwater noise from shipping is becoming a significant concern and has been listed as a pollutant under Descriptor 11 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Underwater noise models are an essential tool to assess and predict noise levels for regulatory procedures such as environmental impact assessments and ship noise monitoring. There are generally two approaches to noise modelling. The first is based on simplified energy flux models, assuming either spherical or cylindrical propagation of sound energy. These models are very quick but they ignore important water column and seabed properties, and produce significant errors in the areas subject to temperature stratification (Shapiro et al., 2014). The second type of model (e.g. ray-tracing and parabolic equation) is based on an advanced physical representation of sound propagation. However, these acoustic propagation models are computationally expensive to execute. Shipping noise modelling requires spatial discretization in order to group noise sources together using a grid. A uniform grid size is often selected to achieve either the greatest efficiency (i.e. speed of computations) or the greatest accuracy. In contrast, this work aims to produce efficient and accurate noise level predictions by presenting an adaptive grid where cell size varies with distance from the receiver. The spatial range over which a certain cell size is suitable was determined by calculating the distance from the receiver at which propagation loss becomes uniform across a grid cell. The computational efficiency and accuracy of the resulting adaptive grid was tested by comparing it to uniform 1 km and 5 km grids. These represent an accurate and computationally efficient grid respectively. For a case study of the Celtic Sea, an application of the adaptive grid over an area of 160×160 km reduced the number of model executions required from 25600 for a 1 km grid to 5356 in December and to between 5056 and 13132 in August, which represents a 2 to 5-fold increase in efficiency. The 5 km grid reduces the number of model executions further to 1024. However, over the first 25 km the 5 km grid produces errors of up to 13.8 dB when compared to the highly accurate but inefficient 1 km grid. The newly developed adaptive grid generates much smaller errors of less than 0.5 dB while demonstrating high computational efficiency. Our results show that the adaptive grid provides the ability to retain the accuracy of noise level predictions and improve the efficiency of the modelling process. This can help safeguard sensitive marine ecosystems from noise pollution by improving the underwater noise predictions that inform management activities. References Shapiro, G., Chen, F., Thain, R., 2014. The Effect of Ocean Fronts on Acoustic Wave Propagation in a Shallow Sea, Journal of Marine System, 139: 217 - 226. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.06.007.

Lifespan Analyses of Forest Raptor Nests: Patterns of Creation, Persistence and Reuse

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.; Calvo, José F.

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts. PMID:24717935

Lifespan analyses of forest raptor nests: patterns of creation, persistence and reuse.

PubMed

Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts.

The Mass-loss Return from Evolved Stars to the Large Magellanic Cloud. IV. Construction and Validation of a Grid of Models for Oxygen-rich AGB Stars, Red Supergiants, and Extreme AGB Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargent, Benjamin A.; Srinivasan, S.; Meixner, M.

2011-02-01

To measure the mass loss from dusty oxygen-rich (O-rich) evolved stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), we have constructed a grid of models of spherically symmetric dust shells around stars with constant mass-loss rates using 2Dust. These models will constitute the O-rich model part of the "Grid of Red supergiant and Asymptotic giant branch star ModelS" (GRAMS). This model grid explores four parameters—stellar effective temperature from 2100 K to 4700 K luminosity from 103 to 106 L sun; dust shell inner radii of 3, 7, 11, and 15 R star; and 10.0 μm optical depth from 10-4 to 26. From an initial grid of ~1200 2Dust models, we create a larger grid of ~69,000 models by scaling to cover the luminosity range required by the data. These models are available online to the public. The matching in color-magnitude diagrams and color-color diagrams to observed O-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and red supergiant (RSG) candidate stars from the SAGE and SAGE-Spec LMC samples and a small sample of OH/IR stars is generally very good. The extreme AGB star candidates from SAGE are more consistent with carbon-rich (C-rich) than O-rich dust composition. Our model grid suggests lower limits to the mid-infrared colors of the dustiest AGB stars for which the chemistry could be O-rich. Finally, the fitting of GRAMS models to spectral energy distributions of sources fit by other studies provides additional verification of our grid and anticipates future, more expansive efforts.

Three-level multilevel growth models for nested change data: a guide for group treatment researchers.

PubMed

Tasca, Giorgio A; Illing, Vanessa; Joyce, Anthony S; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2009-07-01

Researchers have known for years about the negative impact on Type I error rates caused by dependencies in hierarchically nested and longitudinal data. Despite this, group treatment researchers do not consistently use methods such as multilevel models (MLMs) to assess dependence and appropriately analyse their nested data. The goals of this study are to review some of the study design issues with regard to hierarchically nested and longitudinal data, discuss MLMs for assessing and handling dependence in data, and present a guide for developing a three-level growth MLM that is appropriate for group treatment data, design, and research questions. The authors present an example from group treatment research to illustrate these issues and methods.

The St. Catherine`s sea turtle conservation program: Modeling effective science education through conservation and research partnerships

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

March, N.B.; Bishop, G.

1994-12-31

Georgia school teachers served eight to ten day internships as research colleagues on St. Catherine`s island, Georgia. Interns monitored daily nesting activity, evaluated possible nests, validated egg chambers, screened the nests, and monitored each nest daily and assessed hatching success by excavation upon emergence of hatchlings. The real-world, hands-on holistic field experience immersed school teachers in the problems of executing a natural history conservation project integrating scientific content and methodology, mathematical analysis, and computer documentation. Outcomes included increased scientific inquiry, reduced science anxiety, heightened self-confidence, and enhanced credibility with students and colleagues. This educational model is applicable to many areasmore » and problems.« less

The Antsy Social Network: Determinants of Nest Structure and Arrangement in Asian Weaver Ants.

PubMed

Devarajan, Kadambari

2016-01-01

Asian weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) are arboreal ants that are known to form mutualistic complexes with their host trees. They are eusocial ants that build elaborate nests in the canopy in tropical areas. A colony comprises of multiple nests, usually on multiple trees, and the boundaries of the colony may be difficult to identify. However, they provide the ideal model for studying group living in invertebrates since there are a definite number of nests for a given substrate, the tree. Here, we briefly examine the structure of the nests and the processes involved in the construction and maintenance of these nests. We have described the spatial arrangement of weaver ant nests on trees in two distinct tropical clusters, a few hundred kilometres apart in India. Measurements were made for 13 trees with a total of 71 nests in the two field sites. We have considered a host of biotic and abiotic factors that may be crucial in determining the location of the nesting site by Asian weaver ants. Our results indicate that tree characteristics and architecture followed by leaf features help determine nest location in Asian weaver ants. While environmental factors may not be as influential to nest arrangement, they seem to be important determinants of nest structure. The parameters that may be considered in establishing the nests could be crucial in picking the evolutionary drivers for colonial living in social organisms.

An Odds Ratio Approach for Detecting DDF under the Nested Logit Modeling Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terzi, Ragip; Suh, Youngsuk

2015-01-01

An odds ratio approach (ORA) under the framework of a nested logit model was proposed for evaluating differential distractor functioning (DDF) in multiple-choice items and was compared with an existing ORA developed under the nominal response model. The performances of the two ORAs for detecting DDF were investigated through an extensive…

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells

PubMed Central

Cheung, Allen

2016-01-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population readout of a set of probabilistic spatial computations. PMID:27792723

An algebraic multigrid method for Q2-Q1 mixed discretizations of the Navier-Stokes equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prokopenko, Andrey; Tuminaro, Raymond S.

Algebraic multigrid (AMG) preconditioners are considered for discretized systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) where unknowns associated with different physical quantities are not necessarily co-located at mesh points. Speci cally, we investigate a Q 2-Q 1 mixed finite element discretization of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations where the number of velocity nodes is much greater than the number of pressure nodes. Consequently, some velocity degrees-of-freedom (dofs) are defined at spatial locations where there are no corresponding pressure dofs. Thus, AMG approaches lever- aging this co-located structure are not applicable. This paper instead proposes an automatic AMG coarsening that mimics certain pressure/velocitymore » dof relationships of the Q 2-Q 1 discretization. The main idea is to first automatically define coarse pressures in a somewhat standard AMG fashion and then to carefully (but automatically) choose coarse velocity unknowns so that the spatial location relationship between pressure and velocity dofs resembles that on the nest grid. To define coefficients within the inter-grid transfers, an energy minimization AMG (EMIN-AMG) is utilized. EMIN-AMG is not tied to specific coarsening schemes and grid transfer sparsity patterns, and so it is applicable to the proposed coarsening. Numerical results highlighting solver performance are given on Stokes and incompressible Navier-Stokes problems.« less

An algebraic multigrid method for Q2-Q1 mixed discretizations of the Navier-Stokes equations

DOE PAGES

Prokopenko, Andrey; Tuminaro, Raymond S.

2016-07-01

Algebraic multigrid (AMG) preconditioners are considered for discretized systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) where unknowns associated with different physical quantities are not necessarily co-located at mesh points. Speci cally, we investigate a Q 2-Q 1 mixed finite element discretization of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations where the number of velocity nodes is much greater than the number of pressure nodes. Consequently, some velocity degrees-of-freedom (dofs) are defined at spatial locations where there are no corresponding pressure dofs. Thus, AMG approaches lever- aging this co-located structure are not applicable. This paper instead proposes an automatic AMG coarsening that mimics certain pressure/velocitymore » dof relationships of the Q 2-Q 1 discretization. The main idea is to first automatically define coarse pressures in a somewhat standard AMG fashion and then to carefully (but automatically) choose coarse velocity unknowns so that the spatial location relationship between pressure and velocity dofs resembles that on the nest grid. To define coefficients within the inter-grid transfers, an energy minimization AMG (EMIN-AMG) is utilized. EMIN-AMG is not tied to specific coarsening schemes and grid transfer sparsity patterns, and so it is applicable to the proposed coarsening. Numerical results highlighting solver performance are given on Stokes and incompressible Navier-Stokes problems.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arakawa, Akio; Konor, C.S.

Two types of vertical grids are used for atmospheric models: The Lorenz (L grid) and the Charney-Phillips grid (CP grid). In this paper, problems with the L grid are pointed out that are due to the existence of an extra degree of freedom in the vertical distribution of the temperature (and the potential temperature). Then a vertical differencing of the primitive equations based on the CP grid is presented, while most of the advantages of the L grid in a hybrid {sigma}-p vetical coordinate are maintained. The discrete hydrostatic equation is constructed in such a way that it is freemore » from the vertical computational mode in the thermal field. Also, the vertical advection of the potential temperature in the discrete thermodynamic equation is constructed in such a way that it reduces to the standard (and most straightforward) vertical differencing of the quasigeostrophic equations based on the CP grid. Simulations of standing oscillations superposed on a resting atmosphere are presented using two vertically discrete models, one based on the L grid and the other on the CP grid. The comparison of the simulations shows that with the L grid a stationary vertically zigzag pattern dominates in the thermal field, while with the CP grid no such pattern is evident. Simulations of the growth of an extrapolated cyclone in a cyclic channel on a {beta} plan are also presented using two different {sigma}-coordinate models, again one with the L grid and the other with the CP grid, starting from random disturbances. 17 refs., 8 figs.« less

Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes

PubMed Central

Lonsdorf, Eric; Kremen, Claire; Ricketts, Taylor; Winfree, Rachael; Williams, Neal; Greenleaf, Sarah

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Crop pollination by bees and other animals is an essential ecosystem service. Ensuring the maintenance of the service requires a full understanding of the contributions of landscape elements to pollinator populations and crop pollination. Here, the first quantitative model that predicts pollinator abundance on a landscape is described and tested. Methods Using information on pollinator nesting resources, floral resources and foraging distances, the model predicts the relative abundance of pollinators within nesting habitats. From these nesting areas, it then predicts relative abundances of pollinators on the farms requiring pollination services. Model outputs are compared with data from coffee in Costa Rica, watermelon and sunflower in California and watermelon in New Jersey–Pennsylvania (NJPA). Key Results Results from Costa Rica and California, comparing field estimates of pollinator abundance, richness or services with model estimates, are encouraging, explaining up to 80 % of variance among farms. However, the model did not predict observed pollinator abundances on NJPA, so continued model improvement and testing are necessary. The inability of the model to predict pollinator abundances in the NJPA landscape may be due to not accounting for fine-scale floral and nesting resources within the landscapes surrounding farms, rather than the logic of our model. Conclusions The importance of fine-scale resources for pollinator service delivery was supported by sensitivity analyses indicating that the model's predictions depend largely on estimates of nesting and floral resources within crops. Despite the need for more research at the finer-scale, the approach fills an important gap by providing quantitative and mechanistic model from which to evaluate policy decisions and develop land-use plans that promote pollination conservation and service delivery. PMID:19324897

Grid-Independent Large-Eddy Simulation in Turbulent Channel Flow using Three-Dimensional Explicit Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gullbrand, Jessica

2003-01-01

In this paper, turbulence-closure models are evaluated using the 'true' LES approach in turbulent channel flow. The study is an extension of the work presented by Gullbrand (2001), where fourth-order commutative filter functions are applied in three dimensions in a fourth-order finite-difference code. The true LES solution is the grid-independent solution to the filtered governing equations. The solution is obtained by keeping the filter width constant while the computational grid is refined. As the grid is refined, the solution converges towards the true LES solution. The true LES solution will depend on the filter width used, but will be independent of the grid resolution. In traditional LES, because the filter is implicit and directly connected to the grid spacing, the solution converges towards a direct numerical simulation (DNS) as the grid is refined, and not towards the solution of the filtered Navier-Stokes equations. The effect of turbulence-closure models is therefore difficult to determine in traditional LES because, as the grid is refined, more turbulence length scales are resolved and less influence from the models is expected. In contrast, in the true LES formulation, the explicit filter eliminates all scales that are smaller than the filter cutoff, regardless of the grid resolution. This ensures that the resolved length-scales do not vary as the grid resolution is changed. In true LES, the cell size must be smaller than or equal to the cutoff length scale of the filter function. The turbulence-closure models investigated are the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), the dynamic mixed model (DMM), and the dynamic reconstruction model (DRM). These turbulence models were previously studied using two-dimensional explicit filtering in turbulent channel flow by Gullbrand & Chow (2002). The DSM by Germano et al. (1991) is used as the USFS model in all the simulations. This enables evaluation of different reconstruction models for the RSFS stresses. The DMM consists of the scale-similarity model (SSM) by Bardina et al. (1983), which is an RSFS model, in linear combination with the DSM. In the DRM, the RSFS stresses are modeled by using an estimate of the unfiltered velocity in the unclosed term, while the USFS stresses are modeled by the DSM. The DSM and the DMM are two commonly used turbulence-closure models, while the DRM is a more recent model.

Service engineering for grid services in medicine and life science.

PubMed

Weisbecker, Anette; Falkner, Jürgen

2009-01-01

Clearly defined services with appropriate business models are necessary in order to exploit the benefit of grid computing for industrial and academic users in medicine and life sciences. In the project Services@MediGRID the service engineering approach is used to develop those clearly defined grid services and to provide sustainable business models for their usage.

Factors affecting nest survival of Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) in southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Robb, Joseph R.; Lewis, Jason P.; Vanosdol, Teresa; Walker, Benjamin A.; Williams, Perry J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2016-01-01

Populations of Henslow’s Sparrows have declined dramatically in recent decades, coinciding with widespread loss of native grassland habitat. Prescribed burning is a primary tool for maintaining grassland patches, but its effects on nest survival of Henslow’s Sparrows remains largely unknown, especially in conjunction with other factors. We monitored 135 nests of Henslow’s Sparrows at Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge in southern Indiana from 1998–2001 in an effort to understand factors influencing nest survival, including prescribed burning of habitat. We used a mixed-effects implementation of the logistic exposure model to predict daily nest survival in an information theoretic framework. We found that daily survival declined near the onset of hatching and increased with the height of standing dead vegetation, although this relationship was weak. We found only nominal support to suggest that time since burn influenced nest survival. Overall, nest age was the most important factor in estimating daily nest survival rates. Our daily survival estimate from our marginal model (0.937) was similar to that derived from the Mayfield method (0.944) suggesting that our results are comparable to previous studies using the Mayfield approach. Our results indicate that frequent burning to limit woody encroachment into grassland habitats might benefit Henslow’s Sparrow, but that a variety of factors ultimately influence daily nest survival. However, we note that burning too frequently can also limit occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrows. We suggest that additional research is needed to determine the population-level consequences of habitat alteration and if other extrinsic factors influence demographics of Henslow’s Sparrows.