Constrained and Unconstrained Partial Adjacent Category Logit Models for Ordinal Response Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Andrew S.; Xu, Jun

2018-01-01

Adjacent category logit models are ordered regression models that focus on comparisons of adjacent categories. These models are particularly useful for ordinal response variables with categories that are of substantive interest. In this article, we consider unconstrained and constrained versions of the partial adjacent category logit model, which…

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

Bayesian Inference for the Stereotype Regression Model: Application to a Case-control Study of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jaeil; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Banerjee, Mousumi; Cooney, Kathleen A.

2011-01-01

Summary The stereotype regression model for categorical outcomes, proposed by Anderson (1984) is nested between the baseline category logits and adjacent category logits model with proportional odds structure. The stereotype model is more parsimonious than the ordinary baseline-category (or multinomial logistic) model due to a product representation of the log odds-ratios in terms of a common parameter corresponding to each predictor and category specific scores. The model could be used for both ordered and unordered outcomes. For ordered outcomes, the stereotype model allows more flexibility than the popular proportional odds model in capturing highly subjective ordinal scaling which does not result from categorization of a single latent variable, but are inherently multidimensional in nature. As pointed out by Greenland (1994), an additional advantage of the stereotype model is that it provides unbiased and valid inference under outcome-stratified sampling as in case-control studies. In addition, for matched case-control studies, the stereotype model is amenable to classical conditional likelihood principle, whereas there is no reduction due to sufficiency under the proportional odds model. In spite of these attractive features, the model has been applied less, as there are issues with maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood based testing approaches due to non-linearity and lack of identifiability of the parameters. We present comprehensive Bayesian inference and model comparison procedure for this class of models as an alternative to the classical frequentist approach. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing data from The Flint Men’s Health Study, a case-control study of prostate cancer in African-American men aged 40 to 79 years. We use clinical staging of prostate cancer in terms of Tumors, Nodes and Metastatsis (TNM) as the categorical response of interest. PMID:19731262

The Influence of Consumer Goals and Marketing Activities on Product Bundling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haijun, Wang

Upon entering a store, consumers are faced with the questions of whether to buy, what to buy, and how much to buy. Consumers include products from different categories in their decision process. Product categories can be related in different ways. Product bundling is a process that involves the choice of at least two non-substitutable items. In this research, the consumers' explicit product bundling activity at the point of sale is focused. We focuses on the retailers' perspective and therefore leaves out consumers' brand choice decisions, concentrating on purchase incidence and quantity. At the base of the current model of the exist researches, we integrate behavioural choice analysis and predictive choice modelling through the underlying behavioural models, called random utility maximization (RUM) models. The methodological contribution of this research lies therein to combine a nested logit choice model with a latent variable factor model. We point out several limitations for both theory and practice at the end.

On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices

PubMed Central

Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M.; Zou, Yajie

2017-01-01

A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences. PMID:29073152

On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices.

PubMed

Wang, Ke; Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M; Zou, Yajie

2017-01-01

A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences.

Applications manual for logit modes of express bus-fringe parking choices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-01-01

Manual computations and computerized applications of logit models are described. The models demonstrated reflect travel behavior concerning express bus-fringe parking transit. The specific travel issues addressed include the basic automobile vs. expr...

The Application of the Cumulative Logistic Regression Model to Automated Essay Scoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.; Sinharay, Sandip

2010-01-01

Most automated essay scoring programs use a linear regression model to predict an essay score from several essay features. This article applied a cumulative logit model instead of the linear regression model to automated essay scoring. Comparison of the performances of the linear regression model and the cumulative logit model was performed on a…

Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

2017-12-01

Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

Effect of driver's age and side of impact on crash severity along urban freeways: a mixed logit approach.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos; Gan, Albert

2013-09-01

This study identifies geometric, traffic, environmental, vehicle-related, and driver-related predictors of crash injury severity on urban freeways. The study takes advantage of the mixed logit model's ability to account for unobserved effects that are difficult to quantify and may affect the model estimation, such as the driver's reaction at the time of crash. Crashes of 5 years occurring on 89 urban freeway segments throughout the state of Florida in the United States were used. Examples of severity predictors explored include traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, and detailed driver's age, vehicle types, and sides of impact. To show how the parameter estimates could vary, a binary logit model was compared with the mixed logit model. It was found that the at-fault driver's age, traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, vehicle type, side of impact, and percentage of trucks significantly influence severity on urban freeways. Additionally, young at-fault drivers were associated with a significant severity risk increase relative to other age groups. It was also observed that some variables in the binary logit model yielded illogic estimates due to ignoring the random variation of the estimation. Since the at-fault driver's age and side of impact were significant random parameters in the mixed logit model, an in-depth investigation was performed. It was noticed that back, left, and right impacts had the highest risk among middle-aged drivers, followed by young drivers, very young drivers, and finally, old and very old drivers. To reduce side impacts due to lane changing, two primary strategies can be recommended. The first strategy is to conduct campaigns to convey the hazardous effect of changing lanes at higher speeds. The second is to devise in-vehicle side crash avoidance systems to alert drivers of a potential crash risk. The study provided a promising approach to screening the predictors before fitting the mixed logit model using the random forest technique. Furthermore, potential countermeasures were proposed to reduce the severity of impacts. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Migrant integration policies and health inequalities in Europe.

PubMed

Giannoni, Margherita; Franzini, Luisa; Masiero, Giuliano

2016-06-01

Research on socio-economic determinants of migrant health inequalities has produced a large body of evidence. There is lack of evidence on the influence of structural factors on lives of fragile groups, frequently exposed to health inequalities. The role of poor socio-economic status and country level structural factors, such as migrant integration policies, in explaining migrant health inequalities is unclear. The objective of this paper is to examine the role of migrant socio-economic status and the impact of migrant integration policies on health inequalities during the recent economic crisis in Europe. Using the 2012 wave of Eurostat EU-SILC data for a set of 23 European countries, we estimate multilevel mixed-effects ordered logit models for self-assessed poor health (SAH) and self-reported limiting long-standing illnesses (LLS), and multilevel mixed-effects logit models for self-reported chronic illness (SC). We estimate two-level models with individuals nested within countries, allowing for both individual socio-economic determinants of health and country-level characteristics (healthy life years expectancy, proportion of health care expenditure over the GDP, and problems in migrant integration policies, derived from the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX). Being a non-European citizen or born outside Europe does not increase the odds of reporting poor health conditions, in accordance with the "healthy migrant effect". However, the country context in terms of problems in migrant integration policies influences negatively all of the three measures of health (self-reported health status, limiting long-standing illnesses, and self-reported chronic illness) in foreign people living in European countries, and partially offsets the "healthy migrant effect". Policies for migrant integration can reduce migrant health disparities.

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: A case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.; Noon, Barry R.; Scherer, Rick D.; Keane, John J.

2017-01-01

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical conditional distribution of a bounded discrete random variable. The logistic quantile regression model requires that counts are randomly jittered to a continuous random variable, logit transformed to bound them between specified lower and upper values, then estimated in conventional linear quantile regression, repeating the 3 steps and averaging estimates. Back-transformation to the original discrete scale relies on the fact that quantiles are equivariant to monotonic transformations. We demonstrate this statistical procedure by modeling 20 years of California Spotted Owl fledgling production (0−3 per territory) on the Lassen National Forest, California, USA, as related to climate, demographic, and landscape habitat characteristics at territories. Spotted Owl fledgling counts increased nonlinearly with decreasing precipitation in the early nesting period, in the winter prior to nesting, and in the prior growing season; with increasing minimum temperatures in the early nesting period; with adult compared to subadult parents; when there was no fledgling production in the prior year; and when percentage of the landscape surrounding nesting sites (202 ha) with trees ≥25 m height increased. Changes in production were primarily driven by changes in the proportion of territories with 2 or 3 fledglings. Average variances of the discrete cumulative distributions of the estimated fledgling counts indicated that temporal changes in climate and parent age class explained 18% of the annual variance in owl fledgling production, which was 34% of the total variance. Prior fledgling production explained as much of the variance in the fledgling counts as climate, parent age class, and landscape habitat predictors. Our logistic quantile regression model can be used for any discrete response variables with fixed upper and lower bounds.

Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leppel, Karen

1993-01-01

A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

PubMed

Malhotra, N K

1983-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

2017-12-01

Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits - below which drugs are exempt from co-payments - on prices and on demand. First, using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the new policy decreases prices by 5 percent for generics and increases prices by 4 percent for brand-name drugs in the German reference price market. Second, estimating a nested-logit demand model, we show that consumers appreciate co-payment exempt drugs and calculate lower price elasticities for brand-name drugs than for generics. This explains the different price responses of brand-name and generic drugs and shows that price-related co-payment tiers are an effective tool to steer demand to low-priced drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cognitive overload? An exploration of the potential impact of cognitive functioning in discrete choice experiments with older people in health care.

PubMed

Milte, Rachel; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Lancsar, Emily; Miller, Michelle; Crotty, Maria

2014-07-01

This exploratory study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive functioning on the consistency of individual responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study conducted exclusively with older people. A DCE to investigate preferences for multidisciplinary rehabilitation was administered to a consenting sample of older patients (aged 65 years and older) after surgery to repair a fractured hip (N = 84). Conditional logit, mixed logit, heteroscedastic conditional logit, and generalized multinomial logit regression models were used to analyze the DCE data and to explore the relationship between the level of cognitive functioning (specifically the absence or presence of mild cognitive impairment as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination) and preference and scale heterogeneity. Both the heteroscedastic conditional logit and generalized multinomial logit models indicated that the presence of mild cognitive impairment did not have a significant effect on the consistency of responses to the DCE. This study provides important preliminary evidence relating to the effect of mild cognitive impairment on DCE responses for older people. It is important that further research be conducted in larger samples and more diverse populations to further substantiate the findings from this exploratory study and to assess the practicality and validity of the DCE approach with populations of older people. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Success on the Uniform CPA Exam: A Logit Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brahmasrene, Tantatape; Whitten, Donna

2001-01-01

A logit model was used to test the likelihood of success of 231 candidates on the Uniform Certified Public Accountants Examination. Significant determinants of success included undergraduate grade point average, age, private accounting experience, and gender. (SK)

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian monsoon precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-09-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon precipitation is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Four GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data. The logit-normal model was applied to light, moderate, and extreme rainfall. Findings indicated that physical constructs were preserved by the models, and random effects were significant in many cases. We also found GLMM estimation methods were sensitive to tuning parameters and assumptions and therefore, recommend use of multiple methods in applications. This work provides a novel use of GLMM and promotes its addition to the gamut of tools for analysis in studying climate phenomena.

Investigating risk factors of traffic casualties at private highway-railroad grade crossings in the United States.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos

2016-10-01

Private highway-railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) are intersections of highways and railroads on roadways that are not maintained by a public authority. Since no public authority maintains private HRGCs, fatal and injury crashes at these locations are of concern. However, no study has been conducted at private HRGCs to identify the safety issues that might exist and how to alleviate them. This study identifies the significant predictors of traffic casualties (including both injuries and fatalities) at private HRGCs in the U.S. using six years of nationwide crashes from 2009 to 2014. Two levels of injury severity were considered, injury (including fatalities and injuries) and no injury. The study investigates multiple predictors, e.g., temporal crash characteristics, geometry, railroad, traffic, vehicle, and environment. The study applies both the mixed logit and binary logit models. The mixed logit model was found to outperform the binary logit model. The mixed logit model revealed that drivers who did not stop, railroad equipment that struck highway users, higher train speeds, non-presence of advance warning signs, concrete road surface type, and cloudy weather were associated with an increase in injuries and fatalities. For example, a one-mile-per-hour higher train speed increases the probability of fatality by 22%. On the contrary, male drivers, PM peak periods, and presence of warning devices at both approaches were associated with a fatality reduction. Potential strategies are recommended to alleviate injuries and fatalities at private HRGCs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

2016-10-01

Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PEER REVIEW FOR THE CONSUMER VEHICLE CHOICE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) has recently sponsored the development of a Consumer Vehicle Choice Model (CVCM) by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The specification by OTAQ to ORNL for consumer choice model development was to develop a Nested Multinomial Logit (NMNL) or other appropriate model capable of estimating the consumer surplus impacts and the sales mix effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards. The CVCM will use output from the EPA’s Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA), including changes in retail price equivalents, changes in fuel economy, and changes in emissions, to estimate these impacts. In addition, the CVCM will accept approximately 60 vehicle types, with the flexibility to function with fewer or more vehicle types, and will use a 15 year planning horizon, matching the OMEGA parameters. It will be calibrated to baseline sales projection data provided by the EPA and will include a buy/no-buy option to simulate the possibility that consumers will choose to keep their old vehicle or to buy a used vehicle. To support EPA's future assessment of potential light duty greenhouse gas standards

Median barrier crash severity: some new insights.

PubMed

Hu, Wen; Donnell, Eric T

2010-11-01

Median barrier is used to prevent cross-median crashes on divided highways. Although it is well documented that crash frequencies increase after installing median barrier, little is known about median barrier crash severity outcomes. The present study estimated a nested logit model of median barrier crash severity using 5 years of data from rural divided highways in North Carolina. Vehicle, driver, roadway, and median cross-section design data were factors considered in the model. A unique aspect of the data used to estimate the model was the availability of median barrier placement and median cross-slope data, two elements not commonly included in roadway inventory data files. The estimation results indicate that collisions with a cable median barrier increase the probability of less-severe crash outcomes relative to collisions with a concrete or guardrail median barrier. Increasing the median barrier offset was associated with a lower probability of severe crash outcomes. The presence of a cable median barrier installed on foreslopes that were between 6H:1V and 10H:1V were associated with an increase in severe crash probabilities when compared to cable median barrier installations on foreslopes that were 10H:1V or flatter. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety performance of traffic phases and phase transitions in three phase traffic theory.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin

2015-12-01

Crash risk prediction models were developed to link safety to various phases and phase transitions defined by the three phase traffic theory. Results of the Bayesian conditional logit analysis showed that different traffic states differed distinctly with respect to safety performance. The random-parameter logit approach was utilized to account for the heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors. The Bayesian inference approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used for the estimation of the random-parameter logit model. The proposed approach increased the prediction performance of the crash risk models as compared with the conventional logit model. The three phase traffic theory can help us better understand the mechanism of crash occurrences in various traffic states. The contributing factors to crash likelihood can be well explained by the mechanism of phase transitions. We further discovered that the free flow state can be divided into two sub-phases on the basis of safety performance, including a true free flow state in which the interactions between vehicles are minor, and a platooned traffic state in which bunched vehicles travel in successions. The results of this study suggest that a safety perspective can be added to the three phase traffic theory. The results also suggest that the heterogeneity between different traffic states should be considered when estimating the risks of crash occurrences on freeways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who Is Overeducated and Why? Probit and Dynamic Mixed Multinomial Logit Analyses of Vertical Mismatch in East and West Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boll, Christina; Leppin, Julian Sebastian; Schömann, Klaus

2016-01-01

Overeducation potentially signals a productivity loss. With Socio-Economic Panel data from 1984 to 2011 we identify drivers of educational mismatch for East and West medium and highly educated Germans. Addressing measurement error, state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, we run dynamic mixed multinomial logit models for three different…

Examining driver injury severity outcomes in rural non-interstate roadway crashes using a hierarchical ordered logit model.

PubMed

Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Huang, Helai; Wang, Jiangfeng; Tarefder, Rafiqul A

2016-11-01

Rural non-interstate crashes induce a significant amount of severe injuries and fatalities. Examination of such injury patterns and the associated contributing factors is of practical importance. Taking into account the ordinal nature of injury severity levels and the hierarchical feature of crash data, this study employs a hierarchical ordered logit model to examine the significant factors in predicting driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes based on two-year New Mexico crash records. Bayesian inference is utilized in model estimation procedure and 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI) is applied to testing variable significance. An ordinary ordered logit model omitting the between-crash variance effect is evaluated as well for model performance comparison. Results indicate that the model employed in this study outperforms ordinary ordered logit model in model fit and parameter estimation. Variables regarding crash features, environment conditions, and driver and vehicle characteristics are found to have significant influence on the predictions of driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes. Factors such as road segments far from intersection, wet road surface condition, collision with animals, heavy vehicle drivers, male drivers and driver seatbelt used tend to induce less severe driver injury outcomes than the factors such as multiple-vehicle crashes, severe vehicle damage in a crash, motorcyclists, females, senior drivers, driver with alcohol or drug impairment, and other major collision types. Research limitations regarding crash data and model assumptions are also discussed. Overall, this research provides reasonable results and insight in developing effective road safety measures for crash injury severity reduction and prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SU-D-204-05: Fitting Four NTCP Models to Treatment Outcome Data of Salivary Glands Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four popular NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of salivary glands to the severity of patient reported dry mouth 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the glands, which best correlate with the manifestation of those clinical endpoints. Finally, to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the NTCP models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multiinstitutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data ofmore » the parotid and submandibular glands (SMG) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patients data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the contralateral parotid for Grade ≥ 2 (0.762 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.753 for the RL). For the salivary glands the AUC values were: 0.725 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.721 for the RL. For the contralateral SMG the AUC values were: 0.721 for LKB, 0.714 for Logit and 0.712 for RS and RL. The Odds Ratio for the contralateral parotid was 5.8 (1.3–25.5) for all the four NTCP models for the radiobiological dose threshold of 21Gy. Conclusion: It was shown that all the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data well with very similar accuracy. The contralateral parotid gland appears to correlated best with the clinical endpoints of severe/very severe dry mouth. An EQD2Gy dose of 21Gy appears to be a safe threshold to be used as a constraint in treatment planning.« less

How do patient characteristics influence informal payments for inpatient and outpatient health care in Albania: Results of logit and OLS models using Albanian LSMS 2005

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Informal payments for health care are common in most former communist countries. This paper explores the demand side of these payments in Albania. By using data from the Living Standard Measurement Survey 2005 we control for individual determinants of informal payments in inpatient and outpatient health care. We use these results to explain the main factors contributing to the occurrence and extent of informal payments in Albania. Methods Using multivariate methods (logit and OLS) we test three models to explain informal payments: the cultural, economic and governance model. The results of logit models are presented here as odds ratios (OR) and results from OLS models as regression coefficients (RC). Results Our findings suggest differences in determinants of informal payments in inpatient and outpatient care. Generally our results show that informal payments are dependent on certain characteristics of patients, including age, area of residence, education, health status and health insurance. However, they are less dependent on income, suggesting homogeneity of payments across income categories. Conclusions We have found more evidence for the validity of governance and economic models than for the cultural model. PMID:21605459

Strategies for controlling item exposure in computerized adaptive testing with the partial credit model.

PubMed

Davis, Laurie Laughlin; Dodd, Barbara G

2008-01-01

Exposure control research with polytomous item pools has determined that randomization procedures can be very effective for controlling test security in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The current study investigated the performance of four procedures for controlling item exposure in a CAT under the partial credit model. In addition to a no exposure control baseline condition, the Kingsbury-Zara, modified-within-.10-logits, Sympson-Hetter, and conditional Sympson-Hetter procedures were implemented to control exposure rates. The Kingsbury-Zara and the modified-within-.10-logits procedures were implemented with 3 and 6 item candidate conditions. The results show that the Kingsbury-Zara and modified-within-.10-logits procedures with 6 item candidates performed as well as the conditional Sympson-Hetter in terms of exposure rates, overlap rates, and pool utilization. These two procedures are strongly recommended for use with partial credit CATs due to their simplicity and strength of their results.

Quality and provider choice: a multinomial logit-least-squares model with selectivity.

PubMed Central

Haas-Wilson, D; Savoca, E

1990-01-01

A Federal Trade Commission survey of contact lens wearers is used to estimate a multinomial logit-least-squares model of the joint determination of provider choice and quality of care in the contact lens industry. The effect of personal and industry characteristics on a consumer's choice among three types of providers--opticians, ophthalmologists, and optometrists--is estimated via multinomial logit. The regression model of the quality of care has two features that distinguish it from previous work in the area. First, it uses an outcome rather than a structural or process measure of quality. Quality is measured as an index of the presence of seven potentially pathological eye conditions caused by poorly fitted lenses. Second, the model controls for possible selection bias that may arise from the fact that the sample observations on quality are generated by consumers' nonrandom choices of providers. The multinomial logit estimates of provider choice indicate that professional regulations limiting the commercial practices of optometrists shift demand for contact lens services away from optometrists toward ophthalmologists. Further, consumers are more likely to have their lenses fitted by opticians in states that require the licensing of opticians. The regression analysis of variations in quality across provider types shows a strong positive selection bias in the estimate of the quality of care received by consumers of ophthalmologists' services. Failure to control for this selection bias results in an overestimate of the quality of care provided by ophthalmologists. PMID:2312308

Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

2010-12-01

This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the data best, indication that allowing for both heterogeneous preferences across households and correlation between repeated choices may represent actual choice behaviors best of all the estimated models. The annual benefits to improve of the Anyancheon watershed for 1% improvement of each attribute was 406.7 billion Won(0.34 billion USD). This study is expected to contribute to the decision-making process for policy-makers by providing useful methodological framework and quantitative information related to watershed improvement projects.Table 1. Estimated Results of Conditional Logit and Mixed Logit Model 1) t-values are shown in brackets

SU-F-T-104: Determining the NTCP Parameters of Pharyngeal Constrictors and Proximal Esophagus for Radiation Induced Swallowing Problems Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of pharyngeal constrictors and proximal esophagus regarding the severity of patient reported swallowing problems 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the section/structure that best correlates with the manifestation of the clinical endpoints. Finally, to compare the goodness-of-fit of those models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multi-institutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric datamore » of superior, medium and inferior sections of pharyngeal constrictors (SPC, MPC and IPC), superior and inferior sections of esophagus (SES and IES) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patient data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the SPC for Grade ≥ 2 (0.719 for the RS and RL models, and 0.716 for LKB and Logit). For Grade ≥ 1, the respective values were 0.699 for RS, LKB and Logit and 0.676 for RL. For MPC the AUC values varied between 0.463–0.477, for IPC between 0.396–0.458, for SES between 0.556–0.613 and for IES between 0.410–0.519. The Odds Ratio for the SPC was 15.6 (1.7–146.4) for RS, LKB and Logit for NTCP of 55%. Conclusion: All the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data with similar accuracy. The SPC appear to correlate best with the clinical endpoints of swallowing problems. A prospective study could establish the use of NTCP values of SPC as a constraint in treatment planning.« less

Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effect of Benefits, Premiums, and Health Risk on Health Plan Choice in the Medicare Program

PubMed Central

Atherly, Adam; Dowd, Bryan E; Feldman, Roger

2004-01-01

Objective To estimate the effect of Medicare+Choice (M+C) plan premiums and benefits and individual beneficiary characteristics on the probability of enrollment in a Medicare+Choice plan. Data Source Individual data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey were combined with plan-level data from Medicare Compare. Study Design Health plan choices, including the Medicare+Choice/Fee-for-Service decision and the choice of plan within the M+C sector, were modeled using limited information maximum likelihood nested logit. Principal Findings Premiums have a significant effect on plan selection, with an estimated out-of-pocket premium elasticity of −0.134 and an insurer-perspective elasticity of −4.57. Beneficiaries are responsive to plan characteristics, with prescription drug benefits having the largest marginal effect. Sicker beneficiaries were more likely to choose plans with drug benefits and diabetics were more likely to pick plans with vision coverage. Conclusions Plan characteristics significantly impact beneficiaries' decisions to enroll in Medicare M+C plans and individuals sort themselves systematically into plans based on individual characteristics. PMID:15230931

Health-seeking behavior and hospital choice in China's New Cooperative Medical System.

PubMed

Brown, Philip H; Theoharides, Caroline

2009-07-01

Since the dissolution of the Rural Cooperative Medical System at the end of the commune period, illness has emerged as a leading cause of poverty in rural China. To address the poor state of health care, the Chinese government unveiled the New Cooperative Medical System in 2002. Because local governments have been given significant control over program design, fundamental characteristics of the program vary from one county to the next. These differences may influence the decision to seek health care as well as the choice of hospital conditional on that initial decision. In this paper, we use a nested logit model to analyze household survey data from 25 counties to analyze the determinants of such health-seeking behavior. We find that age, the share of household expenditures allocated to food consumption (a measure of relative income), and the presence of other sick people in the household negatively affect the decision to seek health care while disability has a positive influence. Further, conditional on seeking treatment, the reimbursement scheme in place in each county and the average daily expenditure associated with hospitalization strongly influence hospital choice.

Study on Commercialization of Biogasification Systems in Ishikari Bay New Port Area - Proposal of Estimation Method of Collectable Amount of Food Waste by using Binary Logit Model -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Sho; Furuichi, Toru; Ishii, Kazuei

This study proposed an estimation method for collectable amount of food waste considering the food waste generator's cooperation ratio ant the amount of food waste generation, and clarified the factors influencing the collectable amount of food waste. In our method, the cooperation ratio was calculated by using the binary logit model which is often used for the traffic multiple choice question. In order to develop a more precise binary logit model, the factors influencing on the cooperation ratio were extracted by a questionnaire survey asking food waste generator's intention, and the preference investigation was then conducted at the second step. As a result, the collectable amount of food waste was estimated to be 72 [t/day] in the Ishikari bay new port area under a condition of current collection system by using our method. In addition, the most critical factor influencing on the collectable amount of food waste was the treatment fee for households, and was the permitted mixture degree of improper materials for retail trade and restaurant businesses

The Application of Censored Regression Models in Low Streamflow Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, C.; Luz, J.

2003-12-01

Estimation of low streamflow statistics at gauged and ungauged river sites is often a daunting task. This process is further confounded by the presence of intermittent streamflows, where streamflow is sometimes reported as zero, within a region. Streamflows recorded as zero may be zero, or may be less than the measurement detection limit. Such data is often referred to as censored data. Numerous methods have been developed to characterize intermittent streamflow series. Logit regression has been proposed to develop regional models of the probability annual lowflows series (such as 7-day lowflows) are zero. In addition, Tobit regression, a method of regression that allows for censored dependent variables, has been proposed for lowflow regional regression models in regions where the lowflow statistic of interest estimated as zero at some sites in the region. While these methods have been proposed, their use in practice has been limited. Here a delete-one jackknife simulation is presented to examine the performance of Logit and Tobit models of 7-day annual minimum flows in 6 USGS water resource regions in the United States. For the Logit model, an assessment is made of whether sites are correctly classified as having at least 10% of 7-day annual lowflows equal to zero. In such a situation, the 7-day, 10-year lowflow (Q710), a commonly employed low streamflow statistic, would be reported as zero. For the Tobit model, a comparison is made between results from the Tobit model, and from performing either ordinary least squares (OLS) or principal component regression (PCR) after the zero sites are dropped from the analysis. Initial results for the Logit model indicate this method to have a high probability of correctly classifying sites into groups with Q710s as zero and non-zero. Initial results also indicate the Tobit model produces better results than PCR and OLS when more than 5% of the sites in the region have Q710 values calculated as zero.

Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data. PMID:28348500

Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

2017-01-01

Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

Demand for Health Insurance by Military Retirees

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

Plans,” The Journal of Health Economics 16, No. 2 (1997): 231–247 and Bruce A. Strombom, Thomas C. Buchmueller, and Paul J. Feldstein, “Switching Costs...Initiative: Volume 3. Health Care Utilization and Costs,” R -4244/3-HA (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1993). 10 probit regression model for TRICARE...Solomon (1998) Stanford University employees, panel data, 1994–95 HMO vs. PPO and FFS Logit -0.29 Fixed-Effects Logit -0.97 Barringer and Mitchell

Working hours and depressive symptoms over 7 years: evidence from a Korean panel study.

PubMed

Ahn, Seoyeon

2018-04-01

This study aims to examine how working hours influence depressive symptoms and the association between working hours and depressive symptoms differently across genders. The sample consists of salaried workers aged 25-64 years who participated in two consecutive waves of the seven-wave Korean Welfare Panel Study (2007-2013) (n = 6813 individuals, 27,986 observations) which is a survey of a nationally representative sample of the South Korean population. I apply logit regression and fixed-effects logit regression to examine the causal relation between (intra-)individual changes of working hours and depressive symptoms over a 7-year period. Results from logit model and fixed-effects logit model show that less than 30 h of work per week and more than 60 h of work per week are associated with significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms. Sex-stratified analyses reveal that women who worked over 60 h per week were at increased risk of showing depressive symptoms compared with women who worked 30-40 h per week. No significant increase in depressive symptoms was seen in men who worked more than 60 h per week. However, men working less than 30 h per week are more likely to report higher levels of depressive symptoms. These results suggest that work arrangement affects the mental health of men and women differently.

Zero adjusted models with applications to analysing helminths count data.

PubMed

Chipeta, Michael G; Ngwira, Bagrey M; Simoonga, Christopher; Kazembe, Lawrence N

2014-11-27

It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study.

Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

PubMed

Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

Optimizing the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman, Källman, and Logit+EUD models for the rectum - a comparison between normal tissue complication probability and clinical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trojková, Darina; Judas, Libor; Trojek, Tomáš

2014-11-01

Minimizing the late rectal toxicity of prostate cancer patients is a very important and widely-discussed topic. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be used to evaluate competing treatment plans. In our work, the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Källman, and Logit+EUD models are optimized by minimizing the Brier score for a group of 302 prostate cancer patients. The NTCP values are calculated and are compared with the values obtained using previously published values for the parameters. χ2 Statistics were calculated as a check of goodness of optimization.

Psychometric Evaluation of a Cultural Competency Assessment Instrument for Health Professionals

PubMed Central

Haywood, Sonja H.; Goode, Tawara; Gao, Yong; Smith, Kristyn; Bronheim, Suzanne; Flocke, Susan A; Zyzanski, Steve

2012-01-01

Background Few valid and reliable measures exist for health care professionals interested in determining their levels of cultural and linguistic competence. Objective To evaluate the measurement properties of the Cultural Competence Health Practitioner Assessment (CCHPA-129). Methods The CCHPA-129 is a 129-item web-based instrument, developed by the National Center for Cultural Competence (NCCC). Responses on the CCHPA -129 were examined using factor analysis; Rasch modeling; and Differential Item Functioning (DIF) across race, ethnicity, gender, and profession. Subjects 2504 practitioners, including 1864 nurses (RN/LPN,/BSN); 341 clinicians (PA/NP); and 299 physicians (MD/DO), who completed the CCHPA-129 online between 2005 and 2008. Results Three factors representing domains of knowledge, adapting practice, and promoting health for culturally and linguistically diverse populations accounted for 46% of the variance. Among Knowledge factor items, 53% (23/43) fit the Rasch model, item difficulties ranged from −1.01 logits (least difficult) to +1.11 logits (most difficult), separation index (SI) 13.82, and Cronbach’s α 0.92. Forty-seven percent (21/44) Adapting Practice factor items fit the model, item difficulties −0.07 to +1.11 logits, SI 11.59, Cronbach’s α 0.88; and 58% (23/39). Promoting Health factor items fit the model, item difficulties −1.01 to +1.38 logits, SI 22.64, Cronbach’s α 0.92. Early evidence of validity was established by known groups having statistically different scores. Conclusion The 67-item CCHPA-67 is psychometrically sound. This shorted instrument can be used to establish associations between practitioners’ cultural and linguistic competence and health outcomes as well as to evaluate interventions to increase practitioners’ cultural and linguistic competence. PMID:22437625

Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

Preferences for tap water attributes within couples: An exploration of alternative mixed logit parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarpa, Riccardo; Thiene, Mara; Hensher, David A.

2012-01-01

Preferences for attributes of complex goods may differ substantially among members of households. Some of these goods, such as tap water, are jointly supplied at the household level. This issue of jointness poses a series of theoretical and empirical challenges to economists engaged in empirical nonmarket valuation studies. While a series of results have already been obtained in the literature, the issue of how to empirically measure these differences, and how sensitive the results are to choice of model specification from the same data, is yet to be clearly understood. In this paper we use data from a widely employed form of stated preference survey for multiattribute goods, namely choice experiments. The salient feature of the data collection is that the same choice experiment was applied to both partners of established couples. The analysis focuses on models that simultaneously handle scale as well as preference heterogeneity in marginal rates of substitution (MRS), thereby isolating true differences between members of couples in their MRS, by removing interpersonal variation in scale. The models employed are different parameterizations of the mixed logit model, including the willingness to pay (WTP)-space model and the generalized multinomial logit model. We find that in this sample there is some evidence of significant statistical differences in values between women and men, but these are of small magnitude and only apply to a few attributes.

Longitudinal analysis of categorical epidemiological data: a study of Three Mile Island.

PubMed

Fienberg, S E; Bromet, E J; Follmann, D; Lambert, D; May, S M

1985-11-01

The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 led to an unprecedented set of events with potentially life threatening implications. This paper focusses on the analysis of a longitudinal study of the psychological well-being of the mothers of young children living within 10 miles of the plant. The initial analyses of the data utilize loglinear/logit model techniques from the contingency table literature, and involve the fitting of a sequence of logit models. The inadequancies of these analyses are noted, and a new class of mixture models for logistic response structures is introduced to overcome the noted shortcomings. The paper includes a brief outline of the methodology relevant for the fitting of these models using the method of maximum likelihood, and then the model is applied to the TMI data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the substantive implications of the mixture model analysis.

Using a metal detector to determine lead sinker abundance in waterbird habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duerr, A.E.; DeStefano, S.

2000-01-01

Waterbirds have died of lead poisoning from ingesting lead fishing sinkers in the United States and Europe. Estimating abundance and distribution of sinkers in the environment will help researchers to understand the potential effects of lead poisoning from sinker ingestion. We used a metal detector to test how environmental conditions and sinker characteristics affected detection of sinkers. Odds of detecting a lead sinker depended on the interaction of sinker mass and depth where it was buried (P=0.002). The odds of detecting a sinker increased with mass and decreased with depth buried. Lead split-shot sinkers were less detectable than tin, brass, and stainless steel sinkers. Detecting lead sinkers was not influenced by sinker shape, substrate type, or whether we searched underwater or on land. We developed a model to determine the proportion of sinkers detected when this detector is used to search for sinkers, so sinker abundance can be estimated. The log odds (Logit) of detecting a lead sinker with mass M g buried D cm below the surface was Logit Y= -1.63 + 4.20 M - 0.45 D - 0.27 MD + 0.0002 D2. The probability of detecting a lead sinker was e(Logit Y)/(1 + e(Logit Y)). At the surface, 90% of sinkers with mass 0.9 g will be detected.

POLO: a user's guide to Probit Or LOgit analysis.

Treesearch

Jacqueline L. Robertson; Robert M. Russell; N.E. Savin

1980-01-01

This user's guide provides detailed instructions for the use of POLO (Probit Or LOgit), a computer program for the analysis of quantal response data such as that obtained from insecticide bioassays by the techniques of probit or logit analysis. Dosage-response lines may be compared for parallelism or...

The relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aygunes, Gunes

2017-07-01

The objective of this paper is to survey and determine the macroeconomic factors affecting the level of venture capital (VC) investments in a country. The literary depends on venture capitalists' quality and countries' venture capital investments. The aim of this paper is to give relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method. We investigate the countries and macro economic variables. By using statistical computation method, we derive correlation between venture capital investments and macro economic variables. According to method of logistic regression model (logit regression or logit model), macro economic variables are correlated with each other in three group. Venture capitalists regard correlations as a indicator. Finally, we give correlation matrix of our results.

Modeling the Effect of Enlarging Seating Room on Passengers' Preference of Taiwan's Domestic Airlines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Jin-Long; Tsai, Li-Non

2003-01-01

This study addresses the need for measuring the effect of enlarging seating room in airplane on passengers' preferences of airline in Taiwan. The results can assist Taiwan's domestic air carriers in better understanding their customers' expectations. Stated choice experiment is used to incorporate passengers' trade-offs in the preferred measurement, and three major attributes are taken into account in the stated choice experiment: (1) type of seat (enlarged or not), (2) price, and (3) brand names of airlines. Furthermore, a binary logit model is used to model the choice behavior of air passengers. The findings show that the type of seat is a major significant variable; price and airline's brand are also significant as well. It concludes that air carriers should put more emphasis on the issue of improving the quality of seat comfort. Keywords: Passengers' preference, Enlarged seating room, Stated choice experiment, Binary logit model.

The demand for child curative care in two rural thanas of Bangladesh: effect of income and women's employment.

PubMed

Levin, A; Rahman, M A; Quayyum, Z; Routh, S; Barkat-e-Khuda

2001-01-01

This paper seeks to investigate the determinants of child health care seeking behaviours in rural Bangladesh. In particular, the effects of income, women's access to income, and the prices of obtaining child health care are examined. Data on the use of child curative care were collected in two rural areas of Bangladesh--Abhoynagar Thana of Jessore District and Mirsarai Thana of Chittagong District--in March 1997. In estimating the use of child curative care, the nested multinomial logit specification was used. The results of the analysis indicate that a woman's involvement in a credit union or income generation affected the likelihood that curative child care was used. Household wealth decreased the likelihood that the child had an illness episode and affected the likelihood that curative child care was sought. Among facility characteristics, travel time was statistically significant and was negatively associated with the use of a provider.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Note on the Heterogeneous Choice Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rohwer, Goetz

2015-01-01

The heterogeneous choice model (HCM) has been proposed as an extension of the standard logit and probit models, which allows taking into account different error variances of explanatory variables. In this note, I show that in an important special case, this model is just another way to specify an interaction effect.

Development and validation of an energy-balance knowledge test for fourth- and fifth-grade students.

PubMed

Chen, Senlin; Zhu, Xihe; Kang, Minsoo

2017-05-01

A valid test measuring children's energy-balance (EB) knowledge is lacking in research. This study developed and validated the energy-balance knowledge test (EBKT) for fourth and fifth grade students. The original EBKT contained 25 items but was reduced to 23 items based on pilot result and intensive expert panel discussion. De-identified data were collected from 468 fourth and fifth grade students enrolled in four schools to examine the psychometric properties of the EBKT items. The Rasch model analysis was conducted using the Winstep 3.65.0 software. Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis flagged 1 item (item #4) functioning differently between boys and girls, which was deleted. The final 22-item EBKT showed desirable model-data fit indices. The items had large variability ranging from -3.58 logit (item #10, the easiest) to 1.70 logit (item #3, the hardest). The average person ability on the test was 0.28 logit (SD = .78). Additional analyses supported known-group difference validity of the EBKT scores in capturing gender- and grade-based ability differences. The test was overall valid but could be further improved by expanding test items to discern various ability levels. For lack of a better test, researchers and practitioners may use the EBKT to assess fourth- and fifth-grade students' EB knowledge.

A model to predict progression in brain-injured patients.

PubMed

Tommasino, N; Forteza, D; Godino, M; Mizraji, R; Alvarez, I

2014-11-01

The study of brain death (BD) epidemiology and the acute brain injury (ABI) progression profile is important to improve public health programs, organ procurement strategies, and intensive care unit (ICU) protocols. The purpose of this study was to analyze the ABI progression profile among patients admitted to ICUs with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8, as well as establishing a prediction model of probability of death and BD. This was a retrospective analysis of prospective data that included all brain-injured patients with GCS ≤8 admitted to a total of four public and private ICUs in Uruguay (N = 1447). The independent predictor factors of death and BD were studied using logistic regression analysis. A hierarchical model consisting of 2 nested logit regression models was then created. With these models, the probabilities of death, BD, and death by cardiorespiratory arrest were analyzed. In the first regression, we observed that as the GCS decreased and age increased, the probability of death rose. Each additional year of age increased the probability of death by 0.014. In the second model, however, BD risk decreased with each year of age. The presence of swelling, mass effect, and/or space-occupying lesion increased BD risk for the same given GCS. In the presence of injuries compatible with intracranial hypertension, age behaved as a protective factor that reduced the probability of BD. Based on the analysis of the local epidemiology, a model to predict the probability of death and BD can be developed. The organ potential donation of a country, region, or hospital can be predicted on the basis of this model, customizing it to each specific situation.

Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The model is designed in a way that each cycle is described by the same three parameters as conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and every two cycles are connected with a transition width. Transition width indicates the shift from one cycle to the next and is described as weighted coaddition of neighboring two cycles. It is determined by three parameters: transition year, transition width, and gamma parameter for weighting. The cycle-jumping method provides superior model compared to the conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and reflects historical production behavior more reasonably and practically, by better modeling of the effects of technological transitions and socioeconomic factors that affect historical resource production behavior by explicitly considering the form of the transitions between production cycles.

Influence of ethnocentrism and neo-phobia on ethnic food consumption in Spain.

PubMed

Camarena, Dena M; Sanjuán, Ana I; Philippidis, George

2011-08-01

Over the last decade, a strong upsurge in Spanish immigration has fostered a thriving ethnic food market. To examine indigenous consumer predilections toward ethnic foods, a carefully designed choice experiment is employed, with particular focus on ethnocentricity and food neo-phobia traits on potential purchase decisions. Employing a two level nested logit model, consumers choose to accept/reject ethnic foods, with a positive response met by a further series of different ethnic cuisine and consumption scenario alternatives. Bivariate tests reveal that higher ethnocentric and neo-phobic segments possess common socio-demographic characteristics, whilst neo-phobia plays a significantly stronger role in determining the probability of rejection. Further tests reveal culturally similar Mexican food as the preferred ethnic food across all consumption scenarios. Moreover, the 'restaurant' is the favoured format of consumption, whilst there is evidence of a strong association between specific ethnic food types and consumption formats. The implications of our research suggest that in the short to medium turn, price is a strong strategic variable, whilst marketing strategies must successfully isolate and exploit specific 'ethnic food/consumption scenario' mixes. Finally, stronger messages emphasizing quality and convenience factors are seen as key to bolstering the underrepresented 'home preparation' ethnic food market in Spain. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

Box-Cox Mixed Logit Model for Travel Behavior Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orro, Alfonso; Novales, Margarita; Benitez, Francisco G.

2010-09-01

To represent the behavior of travelers when they are deciding how they are going to get to their destination, discrete choice models, based on the random utility theory, have become one of the most widely used tools. The field in which these models were developed was halfway between econometrics and transport engineering, although the latter now constitutes one of their principal areas of application. In the transport field, they have mainly been applied to mode choice, but also to the selection of destination, route, and other important decisions such as the vehicle ownership. In usual practice, the most frequently employed discrete choice models implement a fixed coefficient utility function that is linear in the parameters. The principal aim of this paper is to present the viability of specifying utility functions with random coefficients that are nonlinear in the parameters, in applications of discrete choice models to transport. Nonlinear specifications in the parameters were present in discrete choice theory at its outset, although they have seldom been used in practice until recently. The specification of random coefficients, however, began with the probit and the hedonic models in the 1970s, and, after a period of apparent little practical interest, has burgeoned into a field of intense activity in recent years with the new generation of mixed logit models. In this communication, we present a Box-Cox mixed logit model, original of the authors. It includes the estimation of the Box-Cox exponents in addition to the parameters of the random coefficients distribution. Probability of choose an alternative is an integral that will be calculated by simulation. The estimation of the model is carried out by maximizing the simulated log-likelihood of a sample of observed individual choices between alternatives. The differences between the predictions yielded by models that are inconsistent with real behavior have been studied with simulation experiments.

Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

2003-01-01

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

The Mixed Effects Trend Vector Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Rooij, Mark; Schouteden, Martijn

2012-01-01

Maximum likelihood estimation of mixed effect baseline category logit models for multinomial longitudinal data can be prohibitive due to the integral dimension of the random effects distribution. We propose to use multidimensional unfolding methodology to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. As a by-product, readily interpretable graphical…

Winter weather demand considerations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

Syndromic surveillance models using Web data: the case of scarlet fever in the UK.

PubMed

Samaras, Loukas; García-Barriocanal, Elena; Sicilia, Miguel-Angel

2012-03-01

Recent research has shown the potential of Web queries as a source for syndromic surveillance, and existing studies show that these queries can be used as a basis for estimation and prediction of the development of a syndromic disease, such as influenza, using log linear (logit) statistical models. Two alternative models are applied to the relationship between cases and Web queries in this paper. We examine the applicability of using statistical methods to relate search engine queries with scarlet fever cases in the UK, taking advantage of tools to acquire the appropriate data from Google, and using an alternative statistical method based on gamma distributions. The results show that using logit models, the Pearson correlation factor between Web queries and the data obtained from the official agencies must be over 0.90, otherwise the prediction of the peak and the spread of the distributions gives significant deviations. In this paper, we describe the gamma distribution model and show that we can obtain better results in all cases using gamma transformations, and especially in those with a smaller correlation factor.

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

2011-01-01

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data

PubMed Central

Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

2015-01-01

Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability. PMID:26436917

Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

PubMed

Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

2015-01-01

Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

PubMed Central

Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew; Adler, Peter H; Urbanek, Richard P; Barzen, Jeb A

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults. PMID:24340185

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

A Bayesian Approach for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables Using Logit and Probit Links

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Cai, Jing-Heng

2010-01-01

Analysis of ordered binary and unordered binary data has received considerable attention in social and psychological research. This article introduces a Bayesian approach, which has several nice features in practical applications, for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with dichotomous data. We demonstrate how to use the software…

The Postsecondary Resource Trinity Model: Exploring the Interaction between Socioeconomic, Academic, and Institutional Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giani, Matt S.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to revisit the widely held assumption that the impact of socioeconomic background declines steadily across educational transitions, particularly at the postsecondary level. Sequential logit modeling, a staple methodological approach for estimating the relative impact of SES across educational stages, is applied to a…

Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects.

PubMed

Xie, Meiquan; Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhou, Jiao; Jia, Xudong; Choi, Simon

2018-02-17

Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR. This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model. Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime. This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.

Interaction in Balanced Cross Nested Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Paulo; Mexia, João T.; Carvalho, Francisco; Covas, Ricardo

2011-09-01

Commutative Jordan Algebras, CJA, are used in the study of mixed models obtained, through crossing and nesting, from simpler ones. In the study of cross nested models the interaction between nested factors have been systematically discarded. However this can constitutes an artificial simplification of the models. We point out that, when two crossed factors interact, such interaction is symmetric, both factors playing in it equivalent roles, while when two nested factors interact, the interaction is determined by the nesting factor. These interactions will be called interactions with nesting. In this work we present a coherent formulation of the algebraic structure of models enabling the choice of families of interactions between cross and nested factors using binary operations on CJA.

Determinants of Medicare plan choices: are beneficiaries more influenced by premiums or benefits?

PubMed

Jacobs, Paul D; Buntin, Melinda B

2015-07-01

To evaluate the sensitivity of Medicare beneficiaries to premiums and benefits when selecting healthcare plans after the introduction of Part D. We matched respondents in the 2008 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to the Medicare Advantage (MA) plans available to them using the Bid Pricing Tool and previously unavailable data on beneficiaries' plan choices. We estimated a 2-stage nested logit model of Medicare plan choice decision making, including the decision to choose traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare or an MA plan, and for those choosing MA, which specific plan they chose. Beneficiaries living in areas with higher average monthly rebates available from MA plans were more likely to choose MA rather than FFS. When choosing MA plans, beneficiaries are roughly 2 to 3 times more responsive to dollars spent to reduce cost sharing than reductions in their premium. We calculated an elasticity of plan choice with respect to the monthly MA premium of -0.20. Beneficiaries with lower incomes are more sensitive to plan premiums and cost sharing than higher-income beneficiaries. MA plans appear to have a limited incentive to aggressively price their products, and seem to compete primarily over reduced beneficiary cost sharing. Given the limitations of the current plan choice environment, policies designed to encourage the selection of lower-cost plans may require increasing premium differences between plans and providing the tools to enable beneficiaries to easily assess those differences.

A Multinomial Logit Model of Attrition that Distinguishes between Stopout and Dropout Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Leslie S.; O'Toole, Dennis M.; Wetzel, James N.

2004-01-01

College attrition rates are of substantial concern to policy makers and economists interested in educational attainment and earnings opportunities. This is not surprising since nationwide, almost one-third of all first-time college students fail to return for their sophomore year. There exists a substantial body of literature seeking to model this…

Heterogeneity in general practitioners' preferences for quality improvement programs: a choice experiment and policy simulation in France.

PubMed

Ammi, Mehdi; Peyron, Christine

2016-12-01

Despite increasing popularity, quality improvement programs (QIP) have had modest and variable impacts on enhancing the quality of physician practice. We investigate the heterogeneity of physicians' preferences as a potential explanation of these mixed results in France, where the national voluntary QIP - the CAPI - has been cancelled due to its unpopularity. We rely on a discrete choice experiment to elicit heterogeneity in physicians' preferences for the financial and non-financial components of QIP. Using mixed and latent class logit models, results show that the two models should be used in concert to shed light on different aspects of the heterogeneity in preferences. In particular, the mixed logit demonstrates that heterogeneity in preferences is concentrated on the pay-for-performance component of the QIP, while the latent class model shows that physicians can be grouped in four homogeneous groups with specific preference patterns. Using policy simulation, we compare the French CAPI with other possible QIPs, and show that the majority of the physician subgroups modelled dislike the CAPI, while favouring a QIP using only non-financial interventions. We underline the importance of modelling preference heterogeneity in designing and implementing QIPs.

Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

2010-09-01

A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

Network-constrained group lasso for high-dimensional multinomial classification with application to cancer subtype prediction.

PubMed

Tian, Xinyu; Wang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jun

2014-01-01

Classic multinomial logit model, commonly used in multiclass regression problem, is restricted to few predictors and does not take into account the relationship among variables. It has limited use for genomic data, where the number of genomic features far exceeds the sample size. Genomic features such as gene expressions are usually related by an underlying biological network. Efficient use of the network information is important to improve classification performance as well as the biological interpretability. We proposed a multinomial logit model that is capable of addressing both the high dimensionality of predictors and the underlying network information. Group lasso was used to induce model sparsity, and a network-constraint was imposed to induce the smoothness of the coefficients with respect to the underlying network structure. To deal with the non-smoothness of the objective function in optimization, we developed a proximal gradient algorithm for efficient computation. The proposed model was compared to models with no prior structure information in both simulations and a problem of cancer subtype prediction with real TCGA (the cancer genome atlas) gene expression data. The network-constrained mode outperformed the traditional ones in both cases.

Determining the Relationship Between Moral Waivers and Marine Corps Unsuitability Attrition

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

observed characteristics. However, econometric research indicates that the magnitude of interaction effects estimated via probit or logit models may...1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service separations. 15. NUMBER OF...files from fiscal years 1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest-site characteristics: A simulation study.

PubMed

McConnell, Mark D; Monroe, Adrian P; Burger, Loren Wes; Martin, James A

2017-02-01

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest-site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest-site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest-site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest-site vegetation: Method 1-measuring at nest initiation, Method 2-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3-measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4-measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest-site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.

Dropout from Secondary Education: All's Well That Begins Well

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Witte, Kristof; Rogge, Nicky

2013-01-01

Despite the increased attention to students leaving secondary education without a diploma numerous students still dropout yearly. This paper makes a distinction between the "individual perspective" and the "institutional perspective" of dropping out. The former is explored by multinominal logit models. We observe that…

Measuring Developmental Students' Mathematics Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Yanqing

2016-01-01

This study conducted an item-level analysis of mathematics anxiety and examined the dimensionality of mathematics anxiety in a sample of developmental mathematics students (N = 162) by Multi-dimensional Random Coefficients Multinominal Logit Model (MRCMLM). The results indicate a moderately correlated factor structure of mathematics anxiety (r =…

The arcsine is asinine: the analysis of proportions in ecology.

PubMed

Warton, David I; Hui, Francis K C

2011-01-01

The arcsine square root transformation has long been standard procedure when analyzing proportional data in ecology, with applications in data sets containing binomial and non-binomial response variables. Here, we argue that the arcsine transform should not be used in either circumstance. For binomial data, logistic regression has greater interpretability and higher power than analyses of transformed data. However, it is important to check the data for additional unexplained variation, i.e., overdispersion, and to account for it via the inclusion of random effects in the model if found. For non-binomial data, the arcsine transform is undesirable on the grounds of interpretability, and because it can produce nonsensical predictions. The logit transformation is proposed as an alternative approach to address these issues. Examples are presented in both cases to illustrate these advantages, comparing various methods of analyzing proportions including untransformed, arcsine- and logit-transformed linear models and logistic regression (with or without random effects). Simulations demonstrate that logistic regression usually provides a gain in power over other methods.

From neurons to nests: nest-building behaviour as a model in behavioural and comparative neuroscience.

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

Despite centuries of observing the nest building of most extant bird species, we know surprisingly little about how birds build nests and, specifically, how the avian brain controls nest building. Here, we argue that nest building in birds may be a useful model behaviour in which to study how the brain controls behaviour. Specifically, we argue that nest building as a behavioural model provides a unique opportunity to study not only the mechanisms through which the brain controls behaviour within individuals of a single species but also how evolution may have shaped the brain to produce interspecific variation in nest-building behaviour. In this review, we outline the questions in both behavioural and comparative neuroscience that nest building could be used to address, summarize recent findings regarding the neurobiology of nest building in lab-reared zebra finches and across species building different nest structures, and suggest some future directions for the neurobiology of nest building.

Developing the Impossible Figures Task to Assess Visual-Spatial Talents among Chinese Students: A Rasch Measurement Model Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, David W.

2010-01-01

Data of item responses to the Impossible Figures Task (IFT) from 492 Chinese primary, secondary, and university students were analyzed using the dichotomous Rasch measurement model. Item difficulty estimates and person ability estimates located on the same logit scale revealed that the pooled sample of Chinese students, who were relatively highly…

Joint Analysis of Binomial and Continuous Traits with a Recursive Model: A Case Study Using Mortality and Litter Size of Pigs

PubMed Central

Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

2014-01-01

This work presents a model for the joint analysis of a binomial and a Gaussian trait using a recursive parametrization that leads to a computationally efficient implementation. The model is illustrated in an analysis of mortality and litter size in two breeds of Danish pigs, Landrace and Yorkshire. Available evidence suggests that mortality of piglets increased partly as a result of successful selection for total number of piglets born. In recent years there has been a need to decrease the incidence of mortality in pig-breeding programs. We report estimates of genetic variation at the level of the logit of the probability of mortality and quantify how it is affected by the size of the litter. Several models for mortality are considered and the best fits are obtained by postulating linear and cubic relationships between the logit of the probability of mortality and litter size, for Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. An interpretation of how the presence of genetic variation affects the probability of mortality in the population is provided and we discuss and quantify the prospects of selecting for reduced mortality, without affecting litter size. PMID:24414548

Predicting juvenile recidivism: new method, old problems.

PubMed

Benda, B B

1987-01-01

This prediction study compared three statistical procedures for accuracy using two assessment methods. The criterion is return to a juvenile prison after the first release, and the models tested are logit analysis, predictive attribute analysis, and a Burgess procedure. No significant differences are found between statistics in prediction.

Choice-Based Segmentation as an Enrollment Management Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Mark R.

2002-01-01

This article presents an approach to enrollment management based on target marketing strategies developed from a choice-based segmentation methodology. Students are classified into "switchable" or "non-switchable" segments based on their probability of selecting specific majors. A modified multinomial logit choice model is used to identify…

An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

1999-01-01

Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

Entrepreneurship and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santana Vega, Lidia E.; González-Morales, Olga; Feliciano García, Luis

2016-01-01

This work studied the entrepreneurial aspirations of 3,987 adolescents regarding self-employment and the influence of gender, age, nationality, type of school, location of the school, educational level and performance. The Logit model is used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the pupils' aspirations to be self-employed increase in the…

Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

2015-01-01

This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…

The Impact of Nontraditional Training on the Occupational Attainment of Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Streker-Seeborg, Irmtraud; And Others

1984-01-01

Using a logit model of occupational attainment, researchers found that economically disadvantaged women who received nontraditional training were much less likely to be employed in male-dominated occupations and received lower hourly wages. Direct labor market discrimination seems to be responsible for the inhibited occupational attainment of…

Using Neural Networks to Predict MBA Student Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naik, Bijayananda; Ragothaman, Srinivasan

2004-01-01

Predicting MBA student performance for admission decisions is crucial for educational institutions. This paper evaluates the ability of three different models--neural networks, logit, and probit to predict MBA student performance in graduate programs. The neural network technique was used to classify applicants into successful and marginal student…

Predicting Faculty Membership--Application of Student Choice Logit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kopanidis, Foula Zografina; Shaw, Michael John

2017-01-01

Purpose: Educational institutions are caught between increasing their offer rates and attracting and retaining those prospective students who are most suited to course completion. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the influence of demographic and psychological constructs on students' preferences when choosing to study in a particular…

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

PubMed

Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

2015-09-07

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hackney, Amanda D.; Baldwin, Robert F.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2013-01-01

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge, USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set (N = 67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.

Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

2018-08-01

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km2), although at a local scale (50 m2) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

Phenology of marine turtle nesting revealed by statistical model of the nesting season.

PubMed

Girondot, Marc; Rivalan, Philippe; Wongsopawiro, Ronald; Briane, Jean-Paul; Hulin, Vincent; Caut, Stéphane; Guirlet, Elodie; Godfrey, Matthew H

2006-08-31

Marine turtles deposit their eggs on tropical or subtropical beaches during discrete nesting seasons that span several months. The number and distribution of nests laid during a nesting season provide vital information on various aspects of marine turtle ecology and conservation. In the case of leatherback sea turtles nesting in French Guiana, we developed a mathematical model to explore the phenology of their nesting season, derived from an incomplete nest count dataset. We detected 3 primary components in the nest distribution of leatherbacks: an overall shape that corresponds to the arrival and departure of leatherback females in the Guianas region, a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 10 days that is related to physiological constraints of nesting female leatherbacks, and a sinusoidal pattern with a period of approximately 15 days that likely reflects the influence of spring high tides on nesting female turtles. The model proposed here offers a variety of uses for both marine turtles and also other taxa when individuals are observed in a particular location for only part of the year.

The Impact of Ignoring the Level of Nesting Structure in Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jungkyu; Yu, Hsiu-Ting

2016-01-01

The multilevel latent class model (MLCM) is a multilevel extension of a latent class model (LCM) that is used to analyze nested structure data structure. The nonparametric version of an MLCM assumes a discrete latent variable at a higher-level nesting structure to account for the dependency among observations nested within a higher-level unit. In…

An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

2013-10-15

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of geographical locations and sociocultural traits on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship.

PubMed

Vuong, Quan Hoang

2016-01-01

This paper presents new results obtained from investigating the data from a 2015 Vietnamese entrepreneurs' survey, containing 3071 observations. Evidence from the estimations using multinomial logits was found to support relationships between several sociocultural factors and entrepreneurship-related performance or traits. Specifically, those relationships include: (a) Active participation in entrepreneurs' social networks and reported value of creativity; (b) CSR-willingness and reported entrepreneurs' perseverance; (c) Transforming of sociocultural values and entrepreneurs' decisiveness; and, (d) Lessons learned from others' failures and perceived chance of success. Using geographical locations as the control variate, evaluations of the baseline-category logits models indicate their varying effects on the outcomes when combined with the sociocultural factors that are found to be statistically significant. Empirical probabilities that give further detail about behavioral patterns are provided; and toward the end, the paper offers some conclusions with some striking insights and useful explanations on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship processes.

The role of product design in consumers' choices in the individual insurance market.

PubMed

Marquis, M Susan; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Escarce, José J; Kapur, Kanika

2007-12-01

To evaluate the role of health plan benefit design and price on consumers' decisions to purchase health insurance in the nongroup market and their choice of plan. Administrative data from the three largest nongroup insurers in California and survey data about those insured in the nongroup market and the uninsured in California. We fit a nested logit model to examine the effects of plan characteristics on consumer choice while accounting for substitutability among certain groups of products. Product choice is quite sensitive to price. A 10 percent decrease in the price of a product would increase its market share by about 20 percent. However, a 10 percent decrease in prices of all products would only increase overall market participation by about 4 percent. Changes in the generosity of coverage will also affect product choice, but have only small effects on overall participation. A 20 percent decrease in the deductible or maximum out-of-pocket payment of all plans would increase participation by about 0.3-0.5 percent. Perceived information search costs and other nonprice barriers have substantial effects on purchase of nongroup coverage. Modest subsidies will have small effects on purchase in the nongroup market. New product designs with higher deductibles are likely to be more attractive to healthy purchasers, but the new benefit designs are likely to have only small effects on market participation. In contrast, consumer education efforts have a role to play in helping to expand coverage.

Median infectious dose (ID₅₀) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus isolate MN-184 via aerosol exposure.

PubMed

Cutler, Timothy D; Wang, Chong; Hoff, Steven J; Kittawornrat, Apisit; Zimmerman, Jeffrey J

2011-08-05

The median infectious dose (ID(50)) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus isolate MN-184 was determined for aerosol exposure. In 7 replicates, 3-week-old pigs (n=58) respired 10l of airborne PRRS virus from a dynamic aerosol toroid (DAT) maintained at -4°C. Thereafter, pigs were housed in isolation and monitored for evidence of infection. Infection occurred at virus concentrations too low to quantify by microinfectivity assays. Therefore, exposure dose was determined using two indirect methods ("calculated" and "theoretical"). "Calculated" virus dose was derived from the concentration of rhodamine B monitored over the exposure sequence. "Theoretical" virus dose was based on the continuous stirred-tank reactor model. The ID(50) estimate was modeled on the proportion of pigs that became infected using the probit and logit link functions for both "calculated" and "theoretical" exposure doses. Based on "calculated" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) estimates were 1 × 10(-0.13)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(-0.14)TCID(50), respectively. Based on "theoretical" doses, the probit and logit ID(50) were 1 × 10(0.26)TCID(50) and 1 × 10(0.24)TCID(50), respectively. For each point estimate, the 95% confidence interval included the other three point estimates. The results indicated that MN-184 was far more infectious than PRRS virus isolate VR-2332, the only other PRRS virus isolate for which ID(50) has been estimated for airborne exposure. Since aerosol ID(50) estimates are available for only these two isolates, it is uncertain whether one or both of these isolates represent the normal range of PRRS virus infectivity by this route. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Risk Perceptions in Youth Populations: A Multivariate Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denham, Bryan E.

2009-01-01

Grounded conceptually in social cognitive theory, this research examines how personal, behavioral, and environmental factors are associated with risk perceptions of anabolic-androgenic steroids. Ordinal logistic regression and logit log-linear models applied to data gathered from high-school seniors (N = 2,160) in the 2005 Monitoring the Future…

Forest amenities and location choice in the Southwest

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Jennifer A. Thacher; Daniel R. McCollum; Robert P. Berrens

2008-01-01

Locations with natural characteristics, such as forests, are thought to be attractive residential locations. This proposition is tested in the Southwest United States, composed of Arizona and New Mexico. This paper presents a conditional logit model of location choice estimated with household observations from the U.S. Census, geographic information system (GIS) data,...

Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

1982-01-01

This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)

Does race matter in landowners' participation in conservation incentive programs?

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Okwuldili O. Onianwa; John Schelhas; Gerald C. Wheelock; Mark R. Dubois

2005-01-01

This study investigated and compared the participation behavior of white and minority small landowners in Alabama in eight conservation incentive programs. Using nonparametric tests and logit modeling, we found both similarities and differences in participation behavior between these two landowner groups. Both white and minority landowners tended not to participate in...

The Sex Difference in Depression across 29 Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopcroft, Rosemary L.; Bradley, Dana Burr

2007-01-01

The sex difference in depression is well documented in westernized, developed societies, although there has been little quantitative cross-cultural research on the topic. In this study, we use multilevel logit models to examine sex differences in depression across 29 countries using data from the World Values Survey. We find that in no country are…

A panel multinomial logit analysis of elderly living arrangements: evidence from Aging In Manitoba longitudinal data, Canada.

PubMed

Sarma, Sisira; Simpson, Wayne

2007-12-01

Utilizing a unique longitudinal survey linked with home care use data, this paper analyzes the determinants of elderly living arrangements in Manitoba, Canada using a random effects multinomial logit model that accounts for unobserved individual heterogeneity. Because current home ownership is potentially endogenous in a living arrangements choice model, we use prior home ownership as an instrument. We also use prior home care use as an instrument for home care and use a random coefficient framework to account for unobserved health status. After controlling for relevant socio-demographic factors and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that home care and home ownership reduce the probability of living in a nursing home. Consistent with previous studies, we find that age is a strong predictor of nursing home entry. We also find that married people, those who have lived longer in the same community, and those who are healthy are more likely to live independently and less likely to be institutionalized or to cohabit with individuals other than their spouse.

A Multilevel Logit Estimation on the Determinants of Utilization of Preventive Health Care and Healthy Lifestyle Practice in China

PubMed Central

Fan, Lida; Liu, Jianye; Habibov, Nazim N

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide policy implications by estimating the individual and community level determinants of preventive health-care utilization in China based upon data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Two different frameworks, a human capital model and a psychological-behavioral model, are tested using a multilevel logit estimation. The results demonstrate different patterns for medical and nonmedical preventive activities. There is a strong correlation between having medical insurance and utilizing preventive health services. For the usage of medical-related preventive health care (MP), age, gender, education, urban residence, and medical insurance are strong predictors. High income did not provide much of an increase in the usage level of MP, but the lack of income was a huge obstacle for low-income people to overcome. Community variation in number of facilities accounted for about one third of the total variation in the utilization of MP. The utilization of MP in China remains dependent upon the individual's social-economic conditions. PMID:26688776

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

Nest construction by a ground-nesting bird represents a potential trade-off between egg crypticity and thermoregulation.

PubMed

Mayer, Paul M; Smith, Levica M; Ford, Robert G; Watterson, Dustin C; McCutchen, Marshall D; Ryan, Mark R

2009-04-01

Predation selects against conspicuous colors in bird eggs and nests, while thermoregulatory constraints select for nest-building behavior that regulates incubation temperatures. We present results that suggest a trade-off between nest crypticity and thermoregulation of eggs based on selection of nest materials by piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a ground-nesting bird that constructs simple, pebble-lined nests highly vulnerable to predators and exposed to temperature extremes. Piping plovers selected pebbles that were whiter and appeared closer in color to eggs than randomly available pebbles, suggesting a crypsis function. However, nests that were more contrasting in color to surrounding substrates were at greater risk of predation, suggesting an alternate strategy driving selection of white rocks. Near-infrared reflectance of nest pebbles was higher than randomly available pebbles, indicating a direct physical mechanism for heat control through pebble selection. Artificial nests constructed of randomly available pebbles heated more quickly and conferred heat to model eggs, causing eggs to heat more rapidly than in nests constructed from piping plover nest pebbles. Thermal models and field data indicated that temperatures inside nests may remain up to 2-6 degrees C cooler than surrounding substrates. Thermal models indicated that nests heat especially rapidly if not incubated, suggesting that nest construction behavior may serve to keep eggs cooler during the unattended laying period. Thus, pebble selection suggests a potential trade-off between maximizing heat reflectance to improve egg microclimate and minimizing conspicuous contrast of nests with the surrounding substrate to conceal eggs from predators. Nest construction behavior that employs light-colored, thermally reflective materials may represent an evolutionary response by birds and other egg-laying organisms to egg predation and heat stress.

FVCOM one-way and two-way nesting using ESMF: Development and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jianhua; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.

2018-04-01

Built on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), the one-way and two-way nesting methods were implemented into the unstructured-grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). These methods help utilize the unstructured-grid multi-domain nesting of FVCOM with an aim at resolving the multi-scale physical and ecosystem processes. A detail of procedures on implementing FVCOM into ESMF was described. The experiments were made to validate and evaluate the performance of the nested-grid FVCOM system. The first was made for a wave-current interaction case with a two-domain nesting with an emphasis on qualifying a critical need of nesting to resolve a high-resolution feature near the coast and harbor with little loss in computational efficiency. The second was conducted for the pseudo river plume cases to examine the differences in the model-simulated salinity between one-way and two-way nesting approaches and evaluate the performance of mass conservative two-way nesting method. The third was carried out for the river plume case in the realistic geometric domain in Mass Bay, supporting the importance for having the two-way nesting for coastal-estuarine integrated modeling. The nesting method described in this paper has been used in the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)-a global-regional-coastal nesting FVCOM system that has been placed into the end-to-end forecast and hindcast operations since 2007.

Nested high resolution models for the coastal areas of the North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Fred; Shapiro, Georgy

2017-04-01

Oceanographic processes at coastal scales require much higher horizontal resolution from both ocean models and observations as compared to deep water oceanography. Aside from a few exceptions such as land-locked seas, the hydrodynamics of coastal shallow waters is strongly influenced by the tides, which in turn control the mixing, formation of temperature fronts and other phenomena. The numerical modelling of the coastal domains requires good knowledge of the lateral boundary conditions. The application of lateral boundary conditions to ocean models is a notoriously tricky task, but can only be avoided with global ocean models. Smaller scale regional ocean models are typically nested within global models, and even smaller-scale coastal models may be nested within regional models, creating a nesting chain. However a direct nesting of a very high resolution coastal model into a coarse resolution global model results in degrading of the accuracy of the outputs due to the large difference between the model resolutions. This is why a nesting chain has to be applied, so that every increase in resolution is kept within a reasonable minimum (typically by a factor of 3 to 5 at each step). Global models are traditionally non-tidal, so at some stage of the nesting chain the tides need to be introduced. This is typically done by calculating the tidal constituents from a dedicated tidal model (e.g. TPXO) for all boundary points of a nested model. The tidal elevation at each boundary location can then be calculated from the harmonics at every model time step and the added to the parent model non-tidal SSH. This combination of harmonics-derived tidal SSH and non-tidal parent model SSH is typically applied to the nested domain using the Flather condition, together with the baroclinic velocities from the parent model. The harmonics-derived SSH cannot be added to an SSH signal that is already tidal, so the parent model SSH has to be either detided or taken from a non-tidal model. Due to the lack of effective detiding methods and the prevailing view that harmonics-derived SSH provide a cleaner tidal signal over the SSH taken from a tidal parent model it has traditionally only been the last model in a nesting chain that is tidal. But to our knowledge these assumptions haven't been sufficiently tested and need to be re-visited. Furthermore, the lack of tides in the larger-scale regional models limits their capability and we would like to push for a nesting chain where all regional models (including the intermediate ones) are tidal. In this study we have conducted a number of numerical experiments where we have tested whether a tidal regional model can effectively force a tidal nested model without resorting to detiding techniques and the use of a dedicated tidal model such as TPXO. We have tested whether it's possible to use a tidal parent model and use the total SSH (combined geostrophic SSH and tidal component) to force the child model at the boundary. We call this strategy "tidal nesting" as opposed to TPXO tidal forcing which is used in "traditional nesting". For our experiments we have developed 2 models based on the same NEMO 3.6 codebase. The medium resolution AS20 model covers the Arabian Sea at 1/20 ̊ with 50 layers using a hybrid s-on-top-of-z vertical discretisation scheme (Shapiro et al., 2013); and the high resolution AG60 model covers the Arabian/Persian Gulf at 1/60 ̊ with 50 layers. The AS20 model is "traditionally" nested within the UK Met Office non-tidal large-scale Indian Ocean model at 1/12 ̊ resolution and tidal constituents at the boundary are taken from the TPXO7.2 Global Tidal Solution. Our "tidal nesting" experiments use different forcing frequencies at which the tidal SSH is fed from the larger-scale AS20 into the smaller-scale AG60 model. These strategies are compared with "traditional nesting" where the inner AG60 uses boundary conditions from a non-tidal AS20 parent model and tides are computed from TPXO harmonics. The results reveal an optimal tidal nesting strategy which forces tidal SSH from the parent model at 1-hourly intervals whilst non-tidal parameters are forced at 24-hourly intervals. The analysis includes comparisons with tidal gauges in the Gulf of Oman and inside the Arabian Gulf. The accuracy of tides inside the Gulf is inhibited by the narrow Straits of Hormuz, and tidal nesting doesn't achieve the same level of agreement with observation as traditional nesting. We also found that a further increase in the SSH forcing frequency to 30 minutes does not further improve the results. The forcing at intervals of 1h/24h for tidal/non-tidal parameters shows that a 2-step tidal nesting chain is viable and thus tides can be represented in more than just the last model of a nesting chain. References: Shapiro, G., Luneva, M., Pickering, J., and Storkey, D.: The effect of various vertical discretization schemes and horizontal diffusion parameterization on the performance of a 3-D ocean model: the Black Sea case study, Ocean Sci., 9, 377-390, doi:10.5194/os-9-377-2013, 2013.

Forest resources, government policy, and investment location decisions of the forest products industry in the southern United States

Treesearch

Changyou Sun; Daowei Zhang

2010-01-01

In this article, the results of an initial attempt to estimate the effects of state attributes on plant location and investment expenditure were presented for the forest products industry in the southern United States. A conditional logit model was used to analyze new plant births, and a time-series cross-section model to assess the total capital expenditure....

Valuing air quality impacts using stated choice analysis: trading off visibility against morbidity effects.

PubMed

Rizzi, Luis Ignacio; Maza, Cristóbal De La; Cifuentes, Luis Abdón; Gómez, Jorge

2014-12-15

Direct valuation of air quality has as a drawback; that estimated willingness to pay figures cannot be apportioned to the several environmental goods affected by air quality, such as mortality and morbidity effects, visibility, outdoor recreation, among others. To address this issue, we implemented a survey in Santiago de Chile to identify component values of confounded environmental services by means of a choice experiment. We designed a survey where two environmental goods, a morbidity health endpoint and improved visibility, had to be jointly traded off against each other and against money in a unified framework. The health endpoint is a respiratory illness that results in an emergency room visit with a probability of hospitalization being required for appropriate treatment. Visibility is described as an aesthetic effect related to the number of days per year of high visibility. Modeling comprises both a logit model with covariates and a mixed-logit model. The results suggest that the health endpoint midpoint value is in a range from USD 2,800 to USD 13,000, mainly depending on the model and age stratum. The mid point value of an extra day of high visibility per year ranges from USD 281,000 to USD 379,000. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

Identifying Measurement Disturbance Effects Using Rasch Item Fit Statistics and the Logit Residual Index.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mount, Robert E.; Schumacker, Randall E.

1998-01-01

A Monte Carlo study was conducted using simulated dichotomous data to determine the effects of guessing on Rasch item fit statistics and the Logit Residual Index. Results indicate that no significant differences were found between the mean Rasch item fit statistics for each distribution type as the probability of guessing the correct answer…

Assessing coastal plain wetland composition using advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantaleoni, Eva

Establishing wetland gains and losses, delineating wetland boundaries, and determining their vegetative composition are major challenges that can be improved through remote sensing studies. We used the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) to separate wetlands from uplands in a study of 870 locations on the Virginia Coastal Plain. We used the first five bands from each of two ASTER scenes (6 March 2005 and 16 October 2005), covering the visible to the short-wave infrared region (0.52-2.185mum). We included GIS data layers for soil survey, topography, and presence or absence of water in a logistic regression model that predicted the location of over 78% of the wetlands. While this was slightly less accurate (78% vs. 86%) than current National Wetland Inventory (NWI) aerial photo interpretation procedures of locating wetlands, satellite imagery analysis holds great promise for speeding wetland mapping, lowering costs, and improving update frequency. To estimate wetland vegetation composition classes, we generated a classification and regression tree (CART) model and a multinomial logistic regression (logit) model, and compared their accuracy in separating woody wetlands, emergent wetlands and open water. The overall accuracy of the CART model was 73.3%, while for the logit model was 76.7%. The CART producer's accuracy of the emergent wetlands was higher than the accuracy from the multinomial logit (57.1% vs. 40.7%). However, we obtained the opposite result for the woody wetland category (68.7% vs. 52.6%). A McNemar test between the two models and NWI maps showed that their accuracies were not statistically different. We conducted a subpixel analysis of the ASTER images to estimate canopy cover of forested wetlands. We used top-of-atmosphere reflectance from the visible and near infrared bands, Delta Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and a tasseled cap brightness, greenness, and wetness in linear regression model with canopy cover as the dependent variable. The model achieved an adjusted-R 2 of 0.69 (RMSE = 2.7%) for canopy cover less than 16%, and an adjusted-R 2 of 0.04 (RMSE = 19.8%) for higher canopy cover values. Taken together, these findings suggest that satellite remote sensing, in concert with other spatial data, has strong potential for mapping both wetland presence and type.

Habitat patch size and nesting success of yellow-breasted chats

Treesearch

Dick E. Burhans; Frank R. Thompson III

1999-01-01

We measured vegetation at shrub patches used for nesting by Yellow-breasted Chats (Icteria virens) to evaluate the importance of nesting habitat patch features on nest predation, cowbird parasitism, and nest site selection. Logistic regression models indicated that nests in small patches (average diameter

Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects.

PubMed

Lee, Jaeyoung; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Cai, Qing

2018-02-01

In traffic safety literature, crash frequency variables are analyzed using univariate count models or multivariate count models. In this study, we propose an alternative approach to modeling multiple crash frequency dependent variables. Instead of modeling the frequency of crashes we propose to analyze the proportion of crashes by vehicle type. A flexible mixed multinomial logit fractional split model is employed for analyzing the proportions of crashes by vehicle type at the macro-level. In this model, the proportion allocated to an alternative is probabilistically determined based on the alternative propensity as well as the propensity of all other alternatives. Thus, exogenous variables directly affect all alternatives. The approach is well suited to accommodate for large number of alternatives without a sizable increase in computational burden. The model was estimated using crash data at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level from Florida. The modeling results clearly illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework for crash proportion analysis. Further, the Excess Predicted Proportion (EPP)-a screening performance measure analogous to Highway Safety Manual (HSM), Excess Predicted Average Crash Frequency is proposed for hot zone identification. Using EPP, a statewide screening exercise by the various vehicle types considered in our analysis was undertaken. The screening results revealed that the spatial pattern of hot zones is substantially different across the various vehicle types considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factor determining prochard nest predation along a wetland gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albrecht, T.; Horak, D.; Kreisinger, J.; Weidinger, K.; Klvana, P.; Michot, T.C.

2006-01-01

Waterfowl management on breeding grounds focuses on improving nest success, but few studies have compared waterfowl nest success and factors affecting nest survival along a wetland gradient and simultaneously identified nest predators. We monitored nests (n = 195) of common pochards (Aythya ferina) in Trebon Basin Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic, during 1999-2002. Daily nest survival rates (DSRs, logistic-exposure) declined from island (0.985, 95% confidence interval, 0.978-0.991) to overwater (0.962, 0.950-0.971) and terrestrial (0.844, 0.759-0.904) nests. The most parsimonious model for DSRs included habitat class (DSRs: island > overwater > terrestrial) and nest visibility. Nest survival was improved by reduced nest visibility, increased water depth, and increased distance from the nest to habitat edge in littoral habitats. On islands, nest success increased with advancing date and increased distance to open water. A model of constant nest survival best explained the data for terrestrial nests. There were no observer effects on DSRs in any habitat. In 2003, artificial nests (n = 180; 120 contained a wax-filled egg) were deployed on study plots. The model that best explained variation in DSRs for artificial nests included only 1 variable: habitat class (DSRs: island ??? overwater > terrestrial). Mammalian predation of artificial nests (by foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and martens [Martes spp.]) was more likely in terrestrial habitats than in littoral habitats or on islands. By contrast, corvids and marsh harriers (Circus aeruginosus) prevailed among predators of overwater and island nests. Our data indicate that artificial islands and wide strips of littoral vegetation may represent secure breeding habitats for waterfowl because those habitats allow nests to be placed in areas that are not accessible to, or that are avoided by, mammalian predators. Management actions should be aimed at preserving these habitats. This, along with creation of new artificial islands, could help to enhance breeding productivity of pochards and possibly other waterfowl species inhabiting man-made ponds.

Habitat suitability and nest survival of white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forests of Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollenbeck, Jeff P.; Saab, Victoria A.; Frenzel, Richard W.

2011-01-01

We evaluated habitat suitability and nest survival of breeding white-headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolarvatus) in unburned forests of central Oregon, USA. Daily nest-survival rate was positively related to maximum daily temperature during the nest interval and to density of large-diameter trees surrounding the nest tree. We developed a niche-based habitat suitability model (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) for nesting white-headed woodpeckers using remotely sensed data. Along with low elevation, high density of large trees, and low slope, our habitat suitability model suggested that interspersion–juxtaposition of low- and high-canopy cover ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) patches was important for nest-site suitability. Cross-validation suggested the model performed adequately for management planning at a scale >1 ha. Evaluation of mapped habitat suitability index (HSI) suggested that the maximum predictive gain (HSI = 0.36), where the number of nest locations are maximized in the smallest proportion of the modeled landscape, provided an objective initial threshold for identification of suitable habitat. However, managers can choose the threshold HSI most appropriate for their purposes (e.g., locating regions of low–moderate suitability that have potential for habitat restoration). Consequently, our habitat suitability model may be useful for managing dry coniferous forests for white-headed woodpeckers in central Oregon; however, model validation is necessary before our model could be applied to other locations.

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Andersen, David E.

2011-01-01

Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7–20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 ± 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 ± 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts (≤6 years since harvest; 0.927 ± 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2–39% (x¯ = 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

Testing models of female reproductive migratory behaviour and population structure in the Caribbean hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata, with mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Bass, A L; Good, D A; Bjorndal, K A; Richardson, J I; Hillis, Z M; Horrocks, J A; Bowen, B W

1996-06-01

Information on the reproductive behaviour and population structure of female hawksbill turtles, Eretmochelys imbricata, is necessary to define conservation priorities for this highly endangered species. Two hypotheses to explain female nest site choice, natal homing and social facilitation, were tested by analyzing mtDNA control region sequences of 103 individuals from seven nesting colonies in the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Under the social facilitation model, newly mature females follow older females to a nesting location, and subsequently use this site for future nesting. This model generates an expectation that female lineages will be homogenized among regional nesting colonies. Contrary to expectations of the social facilitation model, mtDNA lineages were highly structured among western Atlantic nesting colonies. These analyses identified at least 6 female breeding stocks in the Caribbean and western Atlantic and support a natal homing model for recruitment of breeding females. Reproductive populations are effectively isolated over ecological time scales, and recovery plans for this species should include protection at the level of individual nesting colonies.

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Terhune, Theron M.; Wood, Petra Bohall; Buehler, David A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Confer,  John L.; Flaspohler, David J.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Loegering, John P.; Percy, Katie L.; Roth, Amber M.; Smalling, Curtis G.

2015-01-01

Among shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Random preferences towards bioenergy environmental externalities: a case study of woody biomass based electricity in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Andres Susaeta; Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

This paper contrasts alternate methodological approaches of investigating public preferences, the random parameter logit (RPL) where tastes and preferences of respondents are assumed to be heterogeneous and the conditional logit (CL) approach where tastes and preferences remain fixed for individuals. We conducted a choice experiment to assess preferences for woody...

Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragin, Evgeny A.; Bragin, Alexander E.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily managed landscapes where populations are at greater risk, or for the many other species of rare or endangered birds supported by nest box programs, these processes could have important demographic and conservation consequences.

Exploring Factors Related to Young Children's Word-Meaning Derivations during Read-Alouds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christ, Tanya; Wang, X. Christine; Chiu, Ming Ming

2017-01-01

This study explores how child and text clues were related to 31 kindergarteners' word-meaning derivation outcomes for 372 words presented in books read aloud to children. Data were analyzed using a multilevel, cross-classification, ordered logit model. Children showed no word-meaning derivation 40% of the time, indicating a need for instruction.…

Using Multidimensional Rasch Analysis to Validate the Chinese Version of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ-CV)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, John Chi-Kin; Zhang, Zhonghua; Yin, Hongbiao

2010-01-01

This article used the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model to examine the construct validity and detect the substantial differential item functioning (DIF) of the Chinese version of motivated strategies for learning questionnaire (MSLQ-CV). A total of 1,354 Hong Kong junior high school students were administered the…

Does Education Affect Happiness? Evidence for Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunado, Juncal; de Gracia, Fernando Perez

2012-01-01

In this paper we study the impact of education on happiness in Spain using individual-level data from the European Social Survey, by means of estimating Ordinal Logit Models. We find both direct and indirect effects of education on happiness. First, we find an indirect effect of education on happiness through income and labour status. That is, we…

Building social capital in forest communities: Analysis of New Mexico's Collaborative Forest Restoration Program

Treesearch

Tyler Prante; Jennifer A. Thacher; Daniel W. McCollum; Robert P. Berrens

2007-01-01

In part because of its emphasis on building social capital, the Collaborative Forest Restoration Program (CFRP) in New Mexico represents a unique experiment in public lands management. This study uses logit probability modeling to investigate what factors determined CFRP funding, which totaled $26 million between 2001 and 2006. Results reveal program preferences for...

Estimating a family forest landowner's likelihood of posting against trespass

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Michael A. Kilgore; Steven J. Taff; Joseph M. Schertz

2008-01-01

Hunters and other recreators face challenges to gain access to private forestland in the United States because of an increasing number of landowners posting their land. A landowners' decision to post their land is influenced by a variety of factors, including landowner characteristics, hunter behavior, and parcel attributes. We used a logit model to help...

A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

Treesearch

Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

1998-01-01

Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

Adoption of Agri-Environmental Measures by Organic Farmers: The Role of Interpersonal Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unay Gailhard, Ilkay; Bavorová, Miroslava; Pirscher, Frauke

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of interpersonal communication on the adoption of agri-environmental measures (AEM) by organic farmers in Germany. Methodology: The study used the logit model to predict the probability of adoption behaviour, and Social Network Analysis (SNA) was conducted to analyse the question of…

Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

2017-01-01

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

Nested ocean models: Work in progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkins, A. Louise

1991-01-01

The ongoing work of combining three existing software programs into a nested grid oceanography model is detailed. The HYPER domain decomposition program, the SPEM ocean modeling program, and a quasi-geostrophic model written in England are being combined into a general ocean modeling facility. This facility will be used to test the viability and the capability of two-way nested grids in the North Atlantic.

Nest survival of American Coots relative to grazing, burning, and water depths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Jane E.; Buhl, Deborah A.

2011-01-01

Water and emergent vegetation are key features influencing nest site selection and success for many marsh-nesting waterbirds. Wetland management practices such as grazing, burning, and water-level manipulations directly affect these features and can influence nest survival. We used model selection and before-after-control-impact approaches to evaluate the effects of water depth and four common land-management practices or treatments, i.e., summer grazing, fall grazing, fall burning, and idle (no active treatment) on nest survival of American coots (Fulica americana) nesting at Grays Lake, a large montane wetland in southeast Idaho. The best model included the variables year × treatment, and quadratic functions of date, water depth, and nest age; height of vegetation at the nest did not improve the best model. However, results from the before-after-control-impact analysis indicate that management practices affected nest success via vegetation and involved interactions of hydrology, residual vegetation, and habitat composition. Nest success in idled fields changed little between pre- and post-treatment periods, whereas nest success declined in fields that were grazed or burned, with the most dramatic declines the year following treatments. The importance of water depth may be amplified in this wetland system because of rapid water-level withdrawal during the nesting season. Water and land-use values for area ranchers, management for nesting waterbirds, and long-term wetland function are important considerations in management of water levels and vegetation.

Estimating raptor nesting success: old and new approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Jessi L.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Bond, Laura

2013-01-01

Studies of nesting success can be valuable in assessing the status of raptor populations, but differing monitoring protocols can present unique challenges when comparing populations of different species across time or geographic areas. We used large datasets from long-term studies of 3 raptor species to compare estimates of apparent nest success (ANS, the ratio of successful to total number of nesting attempts), Mayfield nesting success, and the logistic-exposure model of nest survival. Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus), and American kestrels (F. sparverius) differ in their breeding biology and the methods often used to monitor their reproduction. Mayfield and logistic-exposure models generated similar estimates of nesting success with similar levels of precision. Apparent nest success overestimated nesting success and was particularly sensitive to inclusion of nesting attempts discovered late in the nesting season. Thus, the ANS estimator is inappropriate when exact point estimates are required, especially when most raptor pairs cannot be located before or soon after laying eggs. However, ANS may be sufficient to assess long-term trends of species in which nesting attempts are highly detectable.

A genetic test of the natal homing versus social facilitation models for green turtle migration.

PubMed

Meylan, A B; Bowen, B W; Avise, J C

1990-05-11

Female green turtles exhibit strong nest-site fidelity as adults, but whether the nesting beach is the natal site is not known. Under the natal homing hypothesis, females return to their natal beach to nest, whereas under the social facilitation model, virgin females follow experienced breeders to nesting beaches and after a "favorable" nesting experience, fix on that site for future nestings. Differences shown in mitochondrial DNA genotype frequency among green turtle colonies in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are consistent with natal homing expectations and indicate that social facilitation to nonnatal sites is rare.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

A long slit-like entrance promotes ventilation in the mud nesting social wasp, Polybia spinifex: visualization of nest microclimates using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Hozumi, Satoshi; Inagaki, Terumi

2010-01-01

Polybia spinifex Richards (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) constructs mud nests characterized by a long slit-like entrance. The ventilation and thermal characteristics of the P. spinifex nest were investigated to determine whether the nest microclimate is automatically maintained due to the size of the entrance. In order to examine this hypothesis, a numerical simulation was employed to predict the effects of the entrance length. The calculations were performed with 3D-virtual models that simulated the P. spinifex nest conditions, and the reliability of the simulations was experimentally examined by using gypsum-model nests and a P. spinifex nest. The ventilation effect was determined by blowing air through the nest at 1-3 m/s (airflow conditions); the airspeed was found to be higher in models with a longer entrance. The ventilation rate was also higher in models with longer entrances, suggesting that the P. spinifex nest is automatically ventilated by natural winds. Next, the thermal effect was calculated under condition of direct sunlight. Under a calm condition (airflow, 0 m/s), thermal convection and a small temperature drop were observed in the case of models with a long entrance, whereas the ventilation and thermoregulation effects seemed small. Under airflow conditions, the temperature at the mid combs steeply dropped due to the convective airflow through the entrance at 1-2 m/s, and at 3 m/s, most of the heat was eliminated due to high thermal conductivity of the mud envelope, rather than convection.

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, Thomas F.; Grand, James B.; Miller, David A.W.; Anthony, R. Michael

2006-01-01

The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Modeling nest survival of cavity-nesting birds in relation to postfire salvage logging

Treesearch

Vicki Saab; Robin E. Russell; Jay Rotella; Jonathan G. Dudley

2011-01-01

Salvage logging practices in recently burned forests often have direct effects on species associated with dead trees, particularly cavity-nesting birds. As such, evaluation of postfire management practices on nest survival rates of cavity nesters is necessary for determining conservation strategies. We monitored 1,797 nests of 6 cavity-nesting bird species: Lewis'...

Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Otto, Mark C.; Kendall, William L.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

2011-01-01

The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover rate and used this rate to simulate decline in number of occupied nests in list nests over time. Results of Watts and Duerr suggest that, given the rates of loss of nests from the list of known nest sites in Virginia, the list information will be of little value to sampling unless lists are constantly updated. Those authors criticize the plan for not placing sufficient emphasis on updating and maintaining lists of bald eagle nests. Watts and Duerr's metric of turnover rate does not distinguish detectability or temporary nonuse of nests from permanent loss of nests and likely overestimates turnover rate. We describe a multi-state capture–recapture model that allows appropriate estimation of rates of loss of nests, and we use the model to estimate rates of loss from a sample of nests from Maine, USA. The post-delisting monitoring plan addresses the need to maintain and update the lists of nests, and we show that dual frame sampling is an effective approach for sampling nesting bald eagle populations.

Female turtles from hot nests: is it duration of incubation or proportion of development at high temperatures that matters?

PubMed

Georges, Arthur

1989-11-01

Mean daily temperature in natural nests of freshwater turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination is known to be a poor predictor of hatchling sex ratios when nest temperatures fluctuate. To account for this, a model was developed on the assumption that females will emerge from eggs when more than half of embryonic development occurs above the threshold temperature for sex determination rather than from eggs that spend more than half their time above the threshold. The model is consistent with previously published data and in particular explains the phenomenon whereby the mean temperature that best distinguishes between male and female nests decreases with increasing variability in nest temperature. The model, if verified by controlled experiments, has important implications for our understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination in natural nests. Both mean nest temperature and "hours spent above the threshold" will be poor predictors of hatchling sex ratios. Studies designed to investigate latitudinal trends and inter-specific differences in the threshold temperature will need to consider latitudinal and inter-specific variation in the magnitude of diel fluctuations in nest temperature, and variation in factors influencing the magnitude of those fluctuations, such as nest depth. Furthermore, any factor that modifies the relationship between developmental rate and temperature can be expected to influence hatchling sex ratios in natural nests, especially when nest temperatures are close to the threshold.

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions

PubMed Central

Levy, Brian L.; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-01-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated. PMID:28547003

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions.

PubMed

Levy, Brian L; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-04-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

2008-09-01

This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena

2006-01-01

Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become common in many urban areas, often creating nuisance problems for human residents. The presence of urban geese has raised concerns about the spread of disease, increased erosion, excessive noise, eutrophication of waterways, and general nuisance problems. Goose populations have grown due to an increase in urbanization resulting in an abundance of high quality food (urban grass) and suitable nesting sites, as well as a decrease in some predators. I monitored nest predation in the Chicago suburbs during the 2004 and 2005 nesting seasons using 3 nest monitoring techniques to identify predators: video cameras, plasticinemore » eggs, and sign from nest using a classification tree analysis. Of 58 nests monitored in 2004 and 286 in 2005, only raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were identified as nest predators. Raccoons were responsible for 22-25% of depredated nests, but were rarely capable of depredating nests that were actively defended by a goose. Coyotes were responsible for 75-78% of all Canada goose nest depredation and were documented killing one adult goose and feeding on several others. The coyote is a top-level predator that had increased in many metropolitan areas in recent years. To determine if coyotes were actively hunting geese or eggs during the nesting season, I analyzed coyote habitat selection between nesting and pre-nesting or post-nesting seasons. Coyote home ranges (95% Minimum Convex Polygon) were calculated for 19 coyotes to examine third order habitat selection related to goose nest abundance. A 100 m buffer (buffer habitat) was created and centered on each waterway edge and contained 90% of all nests. Coyotes showed selection for habitats during all seasons. Buffer habitat was the top ranked habitat in both pre-nesting and nesting seasons, but dropped to third ranked in post-nesting season. Habitat selection across seasons was compared using a repeated measures MANOVA. Habitat selection between pre-nesting and nesting seasons (P=0.72) were similar, while between post-nesting and nesting seasons there was a nearly significant difference (P=0.07). The insignificant change in habitat use across seasons suggests that coyotes did not switch habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. Alternatively, the change in ranking of buffer habitat across seasons suggests that coyotes may have switched habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. The results are not clear as large individual variation between coyotes due to differences in habitat availability, and social status interfere with the results of the analysis. Even though I failed to find strong support for coyotes actively hunting goose nests, they nevertheless were the primary nest predator in the area and may influence Canada goose populations. To determine the potential influence of coyotes on the Canada goose population, I created a Canada goose matrix population model that included variables such as coyote predation on adults and nests as well as coyote influence on nest desertion. Using the base population model I calculated the Canada goose population to be increasing with {lambda} = 1.055. The removal of all coyote influence on the goose population would allow {lambda} to increase to 1.214. Nest predation was the most important factor related to coyotes: the removal of coyote nest predation from the model resulted in a population growth rate {lambda} = 1.157. Modeling results suggest coyotes are serving as a limiting factor for the Canada goose population within the Chicago metropolitan area.« less

Applying geographic profiling used in the field of criminology for predicting the nest locations of bumble bees.

PubMed

Suzuki-Ohno, Yukari; Inoue, Maki N; Ohno, Kazunori

2010-07-21

We tested whether geographic profiling (GP) can predict multiple nest locations of bumble bees. GP was originally developed in the field of criminology for predicting the area where an offender most likely resides on the basis of the actual crime sites and the predefined probability of crime interaction. The predefined probability of crime interaction in the GP model depends on the distance of a site from an offender's residence. We applied GP for predicting nest locations, assuming that foraging and nest sites were the crime sites and the offenders' residences, respectively. We identified the foraging and nest sites of the invasive species Bombus terrestris in 2004, 2005, and 2006. We fitted GP model coefficients to the field data of the foraging and nest sites, and used GP with the fitting coefficients. GP succeeded in predicting about 10-30% of actual nests. Sensitivity analysis showed that the predictability of the GP model mainly depended on the coefficient value of buffer zone, the distance at the mode of the foraging probability. GP will be able to predict the nest locations of bumble bees in other area by using the fitting coefficient values measured in this study. It will be possible to further improve the predictability of the GP model by considering food site preference and nest density. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stratification approach using logit-based models for confounder adjustment in the study of continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Støer, Nathalie C; Chen, Ying; Andersson, Marielle; Ning, Yilin; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Khoo, Eric Yin Hao; Tai, E-Shyong; Kao, Shih Ling; Reilly, Marie

2017-01-01

The control of confounding is an area of extensive epidemiological research, especially in the field of causal inference for observational studies. Matched cohort and case-control study designs are commonly implemented to control for confounding effects without specifying the functional form of the relationship between the outcome and confounders. This paper extends the commonly used regression models in matched designs for binary and survival outcomes (i.e. conditional logistic and stratified Cox proportional hazards) to studies of continuous outcomes through a novel interpretation and application of logit-based regression models from the econometrics and marketing research literature. We compare the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators using simulated data and propose a heuristic argument for obtaining the residuals for model diagnostics. We illustrate our proposed approach with two real data applications. Our simulation studies demonstrate that our stratification approach is robust to model misspecification and that the distribution of the estimated residuals provides a useful diagnostic when the strata are of moderate size. In our applications to real data, we demonstrate that parity and menopausal status are associated with percent mammographic density, and that the mean level and variability of inpatient blood glucose readings vary between medical and surgical wards within a national tertiary hospital. Our work highlights how the same class of regression models, available in most statistical software, can be used to adjust for confounding in the study of binary, time-to-event and continuous outcomes.

Nest site attributes and temporal patterns of northern flicker nest loss: effects of predation and competition.

PubMed

Fisher, Ryan J; Wiebe, Karen L

2006-04-01

To date, most studies of nest site selection have failed to take into account more than one source of nest loss (or have combined all sources in one analysis) when examining nest site characteristics, leaving us with an incomplete understanding of the potential trade-offs that individuals may face when selecting a nest site. Our objectives were to determine whether northern flickers (Colaptes auratus) may experience a trade-off in nest site selection in response to mammalian nest predation and nest loss to a cavity nest competitor (European starling, Sturnus vulgaris). We also document within-season temporal patterns of these two sources of nest loss with the hypothesis that flickers may also be constrained in the timing of reproduction under both predatory and competitive influence. Mammalian predators frequently depredated flicker nests that were: lower to the ground, less concealed by vegetation around the cavity entrance and at the base of the nest tree, closer to coniferous forest edges and in forest clumps with a high percentage of conifer content. Proximity to coniferous edges or coniferous trees increased the probability of nest predation, but nests near conifers were less likely to be lost to starlings. Flickers may thus face a trade-off in nest site selection with respect to safety from predators or competitors. Models suggested that peaks of nest predation and nest loss to eviction occurred at the same time, although a competing model suggested that the peak of nest loss to starlings occurred 5 days earlier than the peak of mammalian predation. Differences in peaks of mammalian predation and loss to starlings may constrain any adjustment in clutch initiation date by flickers to avoid one source of nest loss.

An Analysis of Army Dentists Using Logistic Regression: A Discrete-Time Logit Model for Predicting Retention

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-10

Reports (0704 0188), 1215 Jefferson Devis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202 4302 Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US Army Medical Department Center and School BLDG 2841 MCCS-HGE-HA (Army-Baylor Program in Health & Business Administration...been used to model negative occurrences in the medical field, such as time to death from a certain disease. However, questions of whether and when

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution ofmore » importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.« less

Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

PubMed

Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

2016-05-18

Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

Economic Analysis of Job-Related Attributes in Undergraduate Students' Initial Job Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Yanhong H.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

2014-01-01

Economic tradeoffs students place on location, salary, distances to natural resource amenities, size of the city where the job is located, and commuting times for their first college graduate job are estimated using a mixed logit model for a sample of Texas A&M University students. The Midwest is the least preferred area having a mean salary…

Elasticity of Demand for Tuition Fees at an Institution of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langelett, George; Chang, Kuo-Liang; Ola' Akinfenwa, Samson; Jorgensen, Nicholas; Bhattarai, Kopila

2015-01-01

Using a conjoint survey of 161 students at South Dakota State University (SDSU), we mapped a probability-of-enrolment curve for SDSU students, consistent with demand theory. A quasi-demand curve was created from the conditional-logit model. This study shows that along with the price of tuition fees, distance from home, availability of majors, and…

Ethnic and Gender Differences in Science Graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admission Policy and College Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smyth, Frederick L.; McArdle, John J.

2004-01-01

Using Bowen and Bok's data from 23 selective colleges, we fit multilevel logit models to test two hypotheses with implications for affirmative action and group differences in attainment of science, math, or engineering (SME) degrees. Hypothesis 1, that differences in precollege academic preparation will explain later SME graduation disparities,…

Exploring the Effects of Financial Aid on the Gap in Student Dropout Risks by Income Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

2008-01-01

Using national survey data and discrete-time logit modeling, this research seeks to understand whether student aid mediates the relationship between parental income and student dropout behavior. Our analysis confirms that there is a gap in dropout rates for low-income students compared with their upper income peers, and suggests that some types of…

How School Choice Is Framed by Parental Preferences and Family Characteristics: A Study of Western Area, Sierra Leone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Pauline; Humble, Steve

2017-01-01

This research set out to investigate how, in a post-conflict area, parental preferences and household characteristics affect school choice for their children. A multinomial logit is used to model the relationship between education preferences and the selection of schools for 954 households in Freetown and neighboring districts, Western Area,…

Cyclists' red-light running behaviours: an examination of risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying behaviours.

PubMed

Pai, Chih-Wei; Jou, Rong-Chang

2014-01-01

Literature has suggested that bicyclists' red-light violations (RLVs) tend not to cause accidents although RLV is a frequent and typical bicyclist's behaviour. High association between bicyclist RLVs and accidents were, however, revealed in Taiwan. The current research explores bicyclists' RLVs by classifying crossing behaviours into three distinct manners: risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying. Other variables, as well as bicyclists' crossing behaviours, were captured through the use of video cameras that were installed at selected intersections in Taoyuan County, Taiwan. Considering the unobserved heterogeneity, this research develops a mixed logit model of bicyclists' three distinct crossing behaviours. Several variables (pupils in uniform, speed limit with 60km/h) appear to have heterogeneous effects, lending support to the use of mixed logit models in bicyclist RLV research. Several factors were found to significantly increase the likelihood of bicyclists' risky behaviours, most notably: intersections with short red-light duration, T/Y intersections, when riders were pupils in uniform, when riders were riding electric bicycles, when riders were unhelmeted. Implications of the research findings, and the concluding remarks, are finally provided. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity-induced resonance in the response to social norms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessone, Claudio J.; Sánchez, Angel; Schweitzer, Frank

2013-02-01

In this paper we focus on diversity-induced resonance, which was recently found in bistable, excitable, and other physical systems. We study the appearance of this phenomenon in a purely economic model of cooperating and defecting agents. An agent's contribution to a public good is seen as a social norm, so defecting agents face a social pressure, which decreases if free riding becomes widespread. In this model, diversity among agents naturally appears because of the different sensitivities towards the social norm. We study the evolution of cooperation as a response to the social norm (i) for the replicator dynamics and (ii) for the logit dynamics by means of numerical simulations. Diversity-induced resonance is observed as a maximum in the response of agents to changes in the social norm as a function of the degree of heterogeneity in the population. We provide an analytical, mean-field approach for the logit dynamics and find very good agreement with the simulations. From a socioeconomic perspective, our results show that, counterintuitively, diversity in the individual sensitivity to social norms may result in a society that better follows such norms as a whole, even if part of the population is less prone to follow them.

Community forestry as perceived by local people around Cross River National Park, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ezebilo, Eugene E

2012-01-01

The prior identification of local people's preferences for conservation-development projects will help gear nature-conservation strategies toward the needs of different groups of local people. This will help policy-makers in designing a more acceptable and effective conservation strategy. This article reports a study of local perceptions of a community forestry project that aims to help improve the design as well as local acceptance of the project. The data originated from personal interviews conducted in communities around Okwangwo Division of the Cross River National Park in southeast Nigeria and were analysed using ordered logit and binary logit models. The results showed that >50% of the respondents were satisfied with the community forestry project. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by education, age, gender, and willingness to contribute money to tourism as well as the contributions of cocoa, banana, and afang (Gnetum africanum) to the respondents' income. The results from this study have important implications for nature conservation in Nigeria and potentially other conservation contexts across the developing world.

Community Forestry as Perceived by Local People Around Cross River National Park, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezebilo, Eugene E.

2012-01-01

The prior identification of local people's preferences for conservation-development projects will help gear nature-conservation strategies toward the needs of different groups of local people. This will help policy-makers in designing a more acceptable and effective conservation strategy. This article reports a study of local perceptions of a community forestry project that aims to help improve the design as well as local acceptance of the project. The data originated from personal interviews conducted in communities around Okwangwo Division of the Cross River National Park in southeast Nigeria and were analysed using ordered logit and binary logit models. The results showed that >50% of the respondents were satisfied with the community forestry project. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by education, age, gender, and willingness to contribute money to tourism as well as the contributions of cocoa, banana, and afang ( Gnetum africanum) to the respondents' income. The results from this study have important implications for nature conservation in Nigeria and potentially other conservation contexts across the developing world.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for nest-survival models

Treesearch

Rodney X. Sturdivant; Jay J. Rotella; Robin E. Russell

2008-01-01

Estimating nest success and identifying important factors related to nest-survival rates is an essential goal for many wildlife researchers interested in understanding avian population dynamics. Advances in statistical methods have led to a number of estimation methods and approaches to modeling this problem. Recently developed models allow researchers to include a...

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carver, Amber; Ross, Jeremy D.; Augustine, David J.; Skagen, Susan K.; Dwyer, Angela M.; Tomback, Diana F.; Wunder, Michael B.

2017-01-01

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Red-shouldered hawk nesting habitat preference in south Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strobel, Bradley N.; Boal, Clint W.

2010-01-01

We examined nesting habitat preference by red-shouldered hawks Buteo lineatus using conditional logistic regression on characteristics measured at 27 occupied nest sites and 68 unused sites in 2005–2009 in south Texas. We measured vegetation characteristics of individual trees (nest trees and unused trees) and corresponding 0.04-ha plots. We evaluated the importance of tree and plot characteristics to nesting habitat selection by comparing a priori tree-specific and plot-specific models using Akaike's information criterion. Models with only plot variables carried 14% more weight than models with only center tree variables. The model-averaged odds ratios indicated red-shouldered hawks selected to nest in taller trees and in areas with higher average diameter at breast height than randomly available within the forest stand. Relative to randomly selected areas, each 1-m increase in nest tree height and 1-cm increase in the plot average diameter at breast height increased the probability of selection by 85% and 10%, respectively. Our results indicate that red-shouldered hawks select nesting habitat based on vegetation characteristics of individual trees as well as the 0.04-ha area surrounding the tree. Our results indicate forest management practices resulting in tall forest stands with large average diameter at breast height would benefit red-shouldered hawks in south Texas.

Factors influencing nesting success of king eiders on northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2008-01-01

King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002-2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21-0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation maybe attributable to sampling variation (??process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003-0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy, females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.

Breeding ecology and nesting habitat associations of five marsh bird species in western New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lor, S.; Malecki, R.A.

2006-01-01

Nesting habitats and nest success of five species of marsh birds were studied during 1997 and 1998 at the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and the adjacent Oak Orchard and Tonawanda State Wildlife Management Areas (WMA) located in western New York. Nest searches located 18 American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), 117 Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), 189 Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), 23 Sora (Porzana carolina), and 72 Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) nests. Average nest densities in 1998, our best nest searching year, ranged from 0.01/ha for Soras (N = 8) to 0.28/ha for Pied-billed Grebes (N = 160). Mayfield nest success estimates for Least Bittern were 80% (N = 16) in 1997 and 46% (N = 37) in 1998. Nest success estimates were 72% (N = 55) for Pied-billed Grebe, 43% (N = 6) for Sora, and 38% (N = 20) for Virginia Rail. Nests of all five species were located in ???70% emergent vegetation with a mean water depth of 24-56 cm and an average vegetation height that ranged from 69-133 cm. Logistic regression models were developed for each species using habitat variables at nest and random site locations. Each model was ranked with Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size (AICc). In general, our best models indicated that increased emergent vegetation and horizontal cover with shallow water depths improved the odds of encountering marsh bird nests in the wetlands of western New York. We suggest that managing wetlands as a complex, at different stages of succession, would best benefit marsh bird species.

Species associations and habitat influence the range-wide distribution of breeding Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior) on Western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, Matthew E.; Andersen, David E.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Humburg, Dale D.

2017-01-01

Inter- and intra-specific interactions are potentially important factors influencing the distribution of populations. Aerial survey data, collected during range-wide breeding population surveys for Eastern Prairie Population (EPP) Canada Geese (Branta canadensis interior), 1987–2008, were evaluated to assess factors influencing their nesting distribution. Specifically, associations between nesting Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and EPP Canada Geese were quantified; and changes in the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese were identified. Mixed-effects Poisson regression models of EPP Canada Goose nest counts were evaluated within a cross-validation framework. The total count of EPP Canada Goose nests varied moderately among years between 1987 and 2008 with no long-term trend; however, the total count of nesting Lesser Snow Geese generally increased. Three models containing factors related to previous EPP Canada Goose nest density (representing recruitment), distance to Hudson Bay (representing brood-habitat), nesting habitat type, and Lesser Snow Goose nest density (inter-specific associations) were the most accurate, improving prediction accuracy by 45% when compared to intercept-only models. EPP Canada Goose nest density varied by habitat type, was negatively associated with distance to coastal brood-rearing areas, and suggested density-dependent intra-specific effects on recruitment. However, a non-linear relationship between Lesser Snow and EPP Canada Goose nest density suggests that as nesting Lesser Snow Geese increase, EPP Canada Geese locally decline and subsequently the spatial distribution of EPP Canada Geese on western Hudson Bay has changed.

A generalized nonlinear model-based mixed multinomial logit approach for crash data analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Ziqiang; Zhu, Wenbo; Ke, Ruimin; Ash, John; Wang, Yinhai; Xu, Jiuping; Xu, Xinxin

2017-02-01

The mixed multinomial logit (MNL) approach, which can account for unobserved heterogeneity, is a promising unordered model that has been employed in analyzing the effect of factors contributing to crash severity. However, its basic assumption of using a linear function to explore the relationship between the probability of crash severity and its contributing factors can be violated in reality. This paper develops a generalized nonlinear model-based mixed MNL approach which is capable of capturing non-monotonic relationships by developing nonlinear predictors for the contributing factors in the context of unobserved heterogeneity. The crash data on seven Interstate freeways in Washington between January 2011 and December 2014 are collected to develop the nonlinear predictors in the model. Thirteen contributing factors in terms of traffic characteristics, roadway geometric characteristics, and weather conditions are identified to have significant mixed (fixed or random) effects on the crash density in three crash severity levels: fatal, injury, and property damage only. The proposed model is compared with the standard mixed MNL model. The comparison results suggest a slight superiority of the new approach in terms of model fit measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (12.06 percent decrease) and Bayesian Information Criterion (9.11 percent decrease). The predicted crash densities for all three levels of crash severities of the new approach are also closer (on average) to the observations than the ones predicted by the standard mixed MNL model. Finally, the significance and impacts of the contributing factors are analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2014-08-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improves WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundarymore » conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

Variation in prostate cancer treatment associated with population density of the county of residence.

PubMed

Cary, C; Odisho, A Y; Cooperberg, M R

2016-06-01

We sought to assess variation in the primary treatment of prostate cancer by examining the effect of population density of the county of residence on treatment for clinically localized prostate cancer and quantify variation in primary treatment attributable to the county and state level. A total 138 226 men with clinically localized prostate cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) database in 2005 through 2008 were analyzed. The main association of interest was between prostate cancer treatment and population density using multilevel hierarchical logit models while accounting for the random effects of counties nested within SEER regions. To quantify the effect of county and SEER region on individual treatment, the percent of total variance in treatment attributable to county of residence and SEER site was estimated with residual intraclass correlation coefficients. Men with localized prostate cancer in metropolitan counties had 23% higher odds of being treated with surgery or radiation compared with men in rural counties, controlling for number of urologists per county as well as clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Three percent (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-6.2%) of the total variation in treatment was attributable to SEER site, while 6% (95% CI: 4.3-9.0%) of variation was attributable to county of residence, adjusting for clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Variation in treatment for localized prostate cancer exists for men living in different population-dense counties of the country. These findings highlight the importance of comparative effectiveness research to improve understanding of this variation and lead to a reduction in unwarranted variation.

A discrete choice model of drug abuse treatment location.

PubMed Central

Goodman, A C; Nishiura, E; Hankin, J R

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify short-term drug abuse treatment location risk factors for ten large, self-insured firms starting January 1, 1989 and ending December 31, 1991. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Study population selected from a large database of health insurance claims for all treatment events starting January 1, 1989 and ending December 31, 1991. STUDY DESIGN: A nested binomial logit method is used to estimate firm-specific patterns of treatment location. The differences in treatment location patterns among firms are then decomposed into firm effects (holding explanatory variables constant among firms) and variable effects (holding firm-specific parameters constant). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Probability of inpatient drug treatment is directly related to the type of drug diagnosis. The most important factors are diagnoses of drug dependence (versus drug abuse) and/or a cocaine dependence. Firm-specific factors also make a substantive difference. Controlling for patient risk factors, firm-specific probabilities of inpatient treatment vary by as much as 87 percent. Controlling for practices of firms and their insurance carriers, differing patient risk profiles cause probabilities of inpatient treatment to vary by as much as 69 percent among firms. Use of the outpatient setting increased over the three-year period. CONCLUSIONS: There are two plausible explanations for the findings. First, people beginning treatment later in the three-year period had less severe conditions than earlier cases and therefore had less need of inpatient treatment. Second, drug abuse treatment experienced the same trend toward the increased use of outpatient care that characterized treatment for other illnesses in the 1980s and early 1990s. PMID:9566181

The Role of Product Design in Consumers' Choices in the Individual Insurance Market

PubMed Central

Marquis, M Susan; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Escarce, José J; Kapur, Kanika

2007-01-01

Objective To evaluate the role of health plan benefit design and price on consumers' decisions to purchase health insurance in the nongroup market and their choice of plan. Data Sources and Study Setting Administrative data from the three largest nongroup insurers in California and survey data about those insured in the nongroup market and the uninsured in California. Study Design We fit a nested logit model to examine the effects of plan characteristics on consumer choice while accounting for substitutability among certain groups of products. Principal Findings Product choice is quite sensitive to price. A 10 percent decrease in the price of a product would increase its market share by about 20 percent. However, a 10 percent decrease in prices of all products would only increase overall market participation by about 4 percent. Changes in the generosity of coverage will also affect product choice, but have only small effects on overall participation. A 20 percent decrease in the deductible or maximum out-of-pocket payment of all plans would increase participation by about 0.3–0.5 percent. Perceived information search costs and other nonprice barriers have substantial effects on purchase of nongroup coverage. Conclusions Modest subsidies will have small effects on purchase in the nongroup market. New product designs with higher deductibles are likely to be more attractive to healthy purchasers, but the new benefit designs are likely to have only small effects on market participation. In contrast, consumer education efforts have a role to play in helping to expand coverage. PMID:17995560

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees.

PubMed

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A R; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N-1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A. R.; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N -1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Optimizing dynamic downscaling in one-way nesting using a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan; Ku, Hyeyun

2016-10-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models has been demonstrated to be an effective approach for both operationally forecasted sea weather on regional scales and projections of future climate change and its impact on the ocean. However, when nesting procedures are carried out in dynamic downscaling from a larger-scale model or set of observations to a smaller scale, errors are unavoidable due to the differences in grid sizes and updating intervals. The present work assesses the impact of errors produced by nesting procedures on the downscaled results from Ocean Regional Circulation Models (ORCMs). Errors are identified and evaluated based on their sources and characteristics by employing the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). The BBE uses the same model to produce both nesting and nested simulations; so it addresses those error sources separately (i.e., without combining the contributions of errors from different sources). Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from the spatial grids' differences, the updating times and the domain sizes. After the BBE was separately run for diverse cases, a Taylor diagram was used to analyze the results and recommend an optimal combination of grid size, updating period and domain sizes. Finally, suggested setups for the downscaling were evaluated by examining the spatial correlations of variables and the relative magnitudes of variances between the nested model and the original data.

A two-way nesting procedure for the WAM model: Application to the Spanish coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lahoz, M.G.; Albiach, J.C.C.

1997-02-01

The performance of the standard one-way nesting procedure for a regional application of a third-generation wave model is investigated. It is found that this nesting procedure is not applicable when the resolution has to be enhanced drastically, unless intermediate grids are placed between the coarse and the fine grid areas. This solution, in turn, requires an excess of computing resources. A two-way nesting procedure is developed and implemented in the model. Advantages and disadvantages of both systems are discussed. The model output for a test case is compared with observed data and the results are discussed in the paper.

Use of novel nest boxes by carmine bee-eaters (Merops nubicus) in captivity.

PubMed

Elston, Jennifer J; Carney, Jennifer; Quinones, Glorieli; Sky, Christy; Plasse, Chelle; Bettinger, Tammie

2007-01-01

Carmine bee-eaters make attractive additions to zoo aviaries but breeding programs have had challenges and limited success. The objectives of this study were to document nesting behavior of Carmine bee-eaters in a captive setting and compare reproductive success between a novel nest box (plastic, 17 x 30 x 22 cm) and a PVC pipe model used previously (30 cm long, 8 cm in diameter). Three bee-eater pairs were given access to seven nest chambers (six novel boxes, one PVC model). Behavioral observations occurred during a 15-min period in the morning or afternoon before egg production and continued until chicks fledged for a total of 87 observation periods (21.75 hr). All occurrences by an individual bird entering or exiting a nest tunnel, food provision, and the time (min) spent inside a nest cavity were documented. Additionally, daily temperature within each nest chamber was recorded. Before eggs were produced the average daily temperature (23.02 degrees C) within the nest chambers did not differ, suggesting that nest cavity choice was not influenced by temperature. No differences were detected among pairs in percent of observed time spent inside their nest cavities or number of times a nest tunnel was entered during the incubation or fledging periods. During incubation females spent a greater percent of observed time inside the nest cavity than males (P=0.02). During the fledging period food provision did not differ between the pairs, however males entered their nest tunnels more often per hour than females (P=0.03), and males tended to provide food more often than females (P=0.053). Two pairs nested in novel nest boxes and successfully fledged one chick each. The pair that nested in the PVC model did not fledge a chick. A nest box that aids in keeping eggs intact is essential for breeding bee-eaters in captivity, and maintaining captive populations will provide opportunities for zoo visitors to enjoy these birds and will reduce the need to remove birds from the wild. Zoo Biol 0:1-13, 2007. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The implications of variable remigration intervals for the assessment of population size in marine turtles.

PubMed

Hays, G C

2000-09-21

Sea turtles nest on sandy beaches and tend to show high fidelity to specific nesting areas, but, despite this fidelity, the inter-annual variation in nesting numbers may be large. This variation may reflect the fact that turtles do not usually nest in consecutive years. Here, theoretical models are developed in which the interval between successive nesting years (the remigration interval) reflects conditions encountered on the feeding grounds, with good feeding years leading to a reduction in the remigration interval and vice versa. These simple models produce high levels of inter-annual variation in nesting numbers with, on occasion, almost no turtles nesting in some years even when the population is large and stable. The implications for assessing the size of sea turtle populations are considered. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Cerulean warbler reproduction, survival, and models of population decline

Treesearch

David A. Buehler; James J. Giocomo; Jason Jones; Paul B. Hamel; Christopher M. Rogers; Tiffany A. Beachy; Dustin W. Varble; Charles P. Nicholson; Kirk L. Roth; JEnnifer Barg; Raleigh J. Robertson; Joseph R. Robb; Kamal Islam

2008-01-01

We present and compare demographic data for cerulean warblers (Dendroica cerulea) from 5 study sites across the range of the species from 1992 to 2006. We conducted field studies to collect data on daily nest survival, nest success, and young fledged per successful nest, and we used data to estimate fecundity. Daily nest survival, nest success, young...

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Sarah R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Boal, Clint W.; Patten, Michael; Wolfe, Don H.; Dixon, Charles; Cox, Robert D.; Heck, Willard R.

2016-01-01

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground (P = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction (P ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

Nesting ecology of Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian and palustrine wetlands of eastern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

McWethy, D.B.; Austin, J.E.

2009-01-01

Little information exists on breeding Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) in riparian wetlands of the Intermountain West. We examined the nesting ecology of Sandhill Cranes associated with riparian and palustrine wetlands in the Henry's Fork Watershed in eastern Idaho in 2003. We located 36 active crane nests, 19 in riparian wetlands and 17 in palustrine wetlands. Nesting sites were dominated by rushes (Juncus spp.), sedges (Carex spp.), Broad-leaved Cattail (Typha latifolia) and willow (Salix spp.), and adjacent foraging areas were primarily composed of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), cinquefoil (Potentilla spp.),Rabbitbrush (Ericameria bloomeri) bunch grasses, upland forbs, Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) and cottonwood (Populus spp.). Mean water depth surrounding nests was 23 cm (SD = 22). A majority of nests (61%) were surrounded by vegetation between 3060 cm, 23% by vegetation 60 cm in height. We were able to determine the fate of 29 nests, of which 20 were successful (69%). Daily nest survival was 0.986 (95% LCI 0.963, UCI 0.995), equivalent to a Mayfield nest success of 0.654 (95% LCI 0.324, UCI 0.853). Model selection favored models with the covariates vegetation type, vegetation height, and water depth. Nest survival increased with increasing water depth surrounding nest sites. Mean water depth was higher around successful nests (30 cm, SD = 21) than unsuccessful nests (15 cm, SD 22). Further research is needed to evaluate the relative contribution of cranes nesting in palustrine and riparian wetlands distributed widely across the Intermountain West.

Using survival analysis of artificial and Real Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri) nests to model site level and nest site factors associated with nest success in the South Okanagan region of Canada

Treesearch

Pam Krannitz Kym Welstead

2005-01-01

Predation is the predominant cause of nest failure for the Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri), a provincially red-listed shrub-steppe species that has experienced significant declines throughout most of its range. We monitored Brewer’s Sparrow nests and conducted an artificial nest experiment, in the South Okanagan Valley,...

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Excessive nest building is a unique behavioural phenotype in the deer mouse model of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Wolmarans, De Wet; Stein, Dan J; Harvey, Brian H

2016-09-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a phenotypically heterogeneous condition characterised by time-consuming intrusive thoughts and/or compulsions. Irrespective of the symptom type diagnosed, the severity of OCD is characterised by heterogeneity in symptom presentation that complicates diagnosis and treatment. Heterogeneity of symptoms would be invaluable in an animal model. Nest building behaviour forms part of the normal behavioural repertoire of rodents and demonstrates profound between-species differences. However, it has been proposed that within-species differences in nest building behaviour (i.e. aberrant vs. normal nest building) may resemble obsessive-compulsive-like symptoms. In an attempt to investigate whether other obsessive-compulsive-like behaviours are present in an animal model of OCD, or if aberrant nest building behaviour may represent a unique obsessive-compulsive phenotype in such a model, the current study assessed nest building behaviour in high (H, viz obsessive-compulsive) and non (N, viz normal) stereotypical deer mice. Subsequently, 12 N and H animals, respectively, were provided with an excess of cotton wool daily for one week prior to and following four weeks of high-dose oral escitalopram treatment (50 mg/kg/day). Data from the current investigation demonstrate daily nesting activity to be highly variable in deer mice, with stereotypy and nest building being independent behaviours. However, we identified unique aberrant large nest building behaviour in 30% of animals from both cohorts that was attenuated by escitalopram to pre-treatment nesting scores of the larger group. In summary, behavioural and drug-treatment evidence confirms that deer mouse behaviour does indeed resemble symptom heterogeneity related to OCD, and as such expands its face and predictive validity for the disorder. © The Author(s) 2016.

Stay or Migrate? An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Place of Work, Place of Study and Birthplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liping, Ma; Kunfeng, Pan

2014-01-01

Based on a 2009 national survey on college graduate employment in China, this article analyzes the relationship of college graduates' place of work to their birthplace and where they attend college, using a conditional logit model. The findings indicate that graduates tend to stay to work in their birthplaces or places of study, controlling for…

An analysis of factors affecting participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama

Treesearch

Okwudili Onianwa; Gerald Wheelock; Buddhi Gyawali; Jianbang Gan; Mark Dubois; John Schelhas

2004-01-01

This study examines factors that affect the participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama. The data were generated from a survey administered to a sample of limited resource farm operators. A binary logit model was employed to analyze the data. Results indicate that college education, age, gross sales, ratio of owned...

A mixed logit model of homeowner preferences for wildfire hazard reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2010-01-01

People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

Gender, Alcohol Consumption Patterns, and Engagement in Sexually Intimate Behaviors among Adolescents and Young Adults in Nha Trang, Viet Nam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaljee, Linda M.; Green, Mackenzie S.; Zhan, Min; Riel, Rosemary; Lerdboon, Porntip; Lostutter, Ty W.; Tho, Le Huu; Luong, Vo Van; Minh, Truong Tan

2011-01-01

A randomly selected cross-sectional survey was conducted with 880 youth (16 to 24 years) in Nha Trang City to assess relationships between alcohol consumption and sexual behaviors. A timeline followback method was employed. Chi-square, generalized logit modeling and logistic regression analyses were performed. Of the sample, 78.2% male and 56.1%…

Minority households’ willingness to pay for public and private wildfire risk reduction in Florida

Treesearch

Armando González-Cabán; José J. Sánchez

2017-01-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a difference in wildfire...

Life Satisfaction among Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands: The Role of Absolute and Relative Income

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gokdemir, Ozge; Dumludag, Devrim

2012-01-01

In this paper we investigate the role of several socio-economic and non-economic factors such as absolute and relative income, education and religion to explain the differences of happiness levels of Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands by using ordered logit model. We focus on members of the Moroccan and Turkish communities, as…

A new vertical grid nesting capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

DOE PAGES

Daniels, Megan H.; Lundquist, Katherine A.; Mirocha, Jeffrey D.; ...

2016-09-16

Mesoscale atmospheric models are increasingly used for high-resolution (<3 km) simulations to better resolve smaller-scale flow details. Increased resolution is achieved using mesh refinement via grid nesting, a procedure where multiple computational domains are integrated either concurrently or in series. A constraint in the concurrent nesting framework offered by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is that mesh refinement is restricted to the horizontal dimensions. This limitation prevents control of the grid aspect ratio, leading to numerical errors due to poor grid quality and preventing grid optimization. Here, a procedure permitting vertical nesting for one-way concurrent simulation is developedmore » and validated through idealized cases. The benefits of vertical nesting are demonstrated using both mesoscale and large-eddy simulations (LES). Mesoscale simulations of the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) show that vertical grid nesting can alleviate numerical errors due to large aspect ratios on coarse grids, while allowing for higher vertical resolution on fine grids. Furthermore, the coarsening of the parent domain does not result in a significant loss of accuracy on the nested domain. LES of neutral boundary layer flow shows that, by permitting optimal grid aspect ratios on both parent and nested domains, use of vertical nesting yields improved agreement with the theoretical logarithmic velocity profile on both domains. Lastly, vertical grid nesting in WRF opens the path forward for multiscale simulations, allowing more accurate simulations spanning a wider range of scales than previously possible.« less

A new vertical grid nesting capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, Megan H.; Lundquist, Katherine A.; Mirocha, Jeffrey D.

Mesoscale atmospheric models are increasingly used for high-resolution (<3 km) simulations to better resolve smaller-scale flow details. Increased resolution is achieved using mesh refinement via grid nesting, a procedure where multiple computational domains are integrated either concurrently or in series. A constraint in the concurrent nesting framework offered by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is that mesh refinement is restricted to the horizontal dimensions. This limitation prevents control of the grid aspect ratio, leading to numerical errors due to poor grid quality and preventing grid optimization. Here, a procedure permitting vertical nesting for one-way concurrent simulation is developedmore » and validated through idealized cases. The benefits of vertical nesting are demonstrated using both mesoscale and large-eddy simulations (LES). Mesoscale simulations of the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) show that vertical grid nesting can alleviate numerical errors due to large aspect ratios on coarse grids, while allowing for higher vertical resolution on fine grids. Furthermore, the coarsening of the parent domain does not result in a significant loss of accuracy on the nested domain. LES of neutral boundary layer flow shows that, by permitting optimal grid aspect ratios on both parent and nested domains, use of vertical nesting yields improved agreement with the theoretical logarithmic velocity profile on both domains. Lastly, vertical grid nesting in WRF opens the path forward for multiscale simulations, allowing more accurate simulations spanning a wider range of scales than previously possible.« less

Wetland and microhabitat use by nesting four-toed salamanders in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalmers, R.J.; Loftin, C.S.

2006-01-01

Little is known of Four-Toed Salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) habitat use, despite the species' extensive range and elevated conservation status. We investigated species-habitat relationships that predict H. scutatum nesting presence in Maine at wetland and microhabitat scales by comparing microhabitats with and without nests. We created logistic regression models, selected models with AIC, and evaluated models with reserve data. Wetlands with nests were best predicted by shoreline microhabitat of Sphagnum spp., wood substrate, water flow, blue-joint reed grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), meadowsweet (Spiraea alba), steeplebush (Spiraea tomentosa), sensitive fern (Onoclea sensibilis), and absence of sheep laurel (Kalmia angustifolia) or deciduous forest canopy. Within occupied wetlands, shoreline microhabitat where nests occurred was best distinguished from available, unoccupied shoreline microhabitat by steeper shore, greater near-shore and basin water depth, deeper nesting vegetation, presence of moss spp. and winterberry (Ilex verticillata), and a negative association with S. alba, leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne calyculata), and K. angustifolia. These models of wetland and microhabitat use by H. scutatum may assist ecologists and managers in detecting and conserving this species. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

SQL/NF Translator for the Triton Nested Relational Database System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

18as., Ohio .. 9~~ ~~ 1 4- AFIT/GCE/ENG/90D-05 SQL/Nk1 TRANSLATOR FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Craig William Schnepf Captain...FOR THE TRITON NESTED RELATIONAL DATABASE SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technnlogy... systems . The SQL/NF query language used for the nested relationil model is an extension of the popular relational model query language SQL. The query

Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

2016-04-01

In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict, particularly in the eastern boundary for temperature and geopotential height. A correlation analysis on the synoptic scale evaluates the relationship between the GCM and the RCM. The beginning of the simulations shows a great consistency of the two models. When dominant dynamics apply, RCM inherits most of the GCM signal with a consistent spatial structure. On the contrary, when the atmospheric circulation is weak, there are not that many effects transferred from the GCM to the RCM. When the RCM has its own dynamics, the boundary conflict is more pronounced. Winter season is chosen for the two-way nesting test due to the predominant role of the atmospheric dynamics in winter. The new approach of a two-way nesting system reduces boundary bias, having a influence in some cases in climate model projections. The effect of two-way nesting is enhanced when using a finer grid.

Predicting nest success from habitat features in aspen forests of the central Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Heather M. Struempf; Deborah M. Finch; Gregory Hayward; Stanley Anderson

2001-01-01

We collected nesting data on bird use of aspen stands in the Routt and Medicine Bow National Forests between 1987 and 1989. We found active nest sites of 28 species of small nongame birds on nine study plots in undisturbed aspen forests. We compared logistic regression models predicting nest success (at least one nestling) from nest-site or stand-level habitat...

Examining driver behavior at the onset of yellow in a traffic simulator environment: Comparisons between random parameters and latent class logit models.

PubMed

Savolainen, Peter T

2016-11-01

This study involves an examination of driver behavior at the onset of a yellow signal indication. Behavioral data were obtained from a driving simulator study that was conducted through the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS) laboratory at the University of Iowa. These data were drawn from a series of events during which study participants drove through a series of intersections where the traffic signals changed from the green to yellow phase. The resulting dataset provides potential insights into how driver behavior is affected by distracted driving through an experimental design that alternated handheld, headset, and hands-free cell phone use with "normal" baseline driving events. The results of the study show that male drivers ages 18-45 were more likely to stop. Participants were also more likely to stop as they became more familiar with the simulator environment. Cell phone use was found to some influence on driver behavior in this setting, though the effects varied significantly across individuals. The study also demonstrates two methodological approaches for dealing with unobserved heterogeneity across drivers. These include random parameters and latent class logit models, each of which analyze the data as a panel. The results show each method to provide significantly better fit than a pooled, fixed parameter model. Differences in terms of the context of these two approaches are discussed, providing important insights as to the differences between these modeling frameworks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

2016-01-01

Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby

2017-01-01

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

Them That's Got: How Tie Formation in Partnership Networks Gives High Schools Differential Access to Social Capital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridwell-Mitchell, E. N.

2017-01-01

School partnerships are important sources of school social capital. Schools may have unequal access to social capital due to the pattern of relationships in the school-partner network. Using data on school resource needs, sociometric measures, and a set of multilevel logit models, the results of a study of 211 New York City public high schools and…

Predictors of Place of Death for Seniors in Ontario: A Population-Based Cohort Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Motiwala, Sanober S.; Croxford, Ruth; Guerriere, Denise N.; Coyte, Peter C.

2006-01-01

Place of death was determined for all 58,689 seniors (age greater than or equal to 66 years) in Ontario who died during fiscal year 2001/2002. The relationship of place of death to medical and socio-demographic characteristics was examined using a multinomial logit model. Half (49.2 %) of these individuals died in hospital, 30.5 per cent died in a…

Factors influencing spatial pattern in tropical forest clearance and stand age: Implications for carbon storage and species diversity.

Treesearch

E. H. Helmer; Thomas J. Brandeis; Ariel E. Lugo; Todd Kennaway

2008-01-01

Little is known about the tropical forests that undergo clearing as urban/built-up and other developed lands spread. This study uses remote sensing-based maps of Puerto Rico, multinomial logit models and forest inventory data to explain patterns of forest age and the age of forests cleared for land development and assess their implications for forest carbon storage and...

Adoption of health information technologies by physicians for clinical practice: The Andalusian case.

PubMed

Villalba-Mora, Elena; Casas, Isabel; Lupiañez-Villanueva, Francisco; Maghiros, Ioannis

2015-07-01

We investigated the level of adoption of Health Information Technologies (HIT) services, and the factors that influence this, amongst specialised and primary care physicians; in Andalusia, Spain. We analysed the physicians' responses to an online survey. First, we performed a statistical descriptive analysis of the data; thereafter, a principal component analysis; and finally an order logit model to explain the effect of the use in the adoption and to analyse which are the existing barriers. The principal component analysis revealed three main uses of Health Information Technologies: Electronic Health Records (EHR), ePrescription and patient management and telemedicine services. Results from an ordered logit model showed that the frequency of use of HIT is associated with the physicians' perceived usefulness. Lack of financing appeared as a common barrier to the adoption of the three types of services. For ePrescription and patient management, the physician's lack of skills is still a barrier. In the case of telemedicine services, lack of security and lack of interest amongst professionals are the existing barriers. EHR functionalities are fully adopted, in terms of perceived usefulness. EPrescription and patient management are almost fully adopted, while telemedicine is in an early stage of adoption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nest sanitation elicits egg discrimination in cuckoo hosts.

PubMed

Yang, Canchao; Chen, Min; Wang, Longwu; Liang, Wei; Møller, Anders Pape

2015-11-01

Nest sanitation is a nearly universal behavior in birds, while egg discrimination is a more specific adaptation that has evolved to counter brood parasitism. These two behaviors are closely related with nest sanitation being the ancestral behavior, and it has been hypothesized to constitute a preadaptation for egg discrimination. However, previous studies found little evidence to support this hypothesis. Here, we conducted an empirical test of the association between nest sanitation and egg discrimination in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) by inserting a single non-mimetic model egg or a non-mimetic model egg plus half a peanut shell into host nests. Compared to the rejection rate of single model eggs, barn swallows significantly increased egg rejection frequency if a half peanut shell was simultaneously introduced. Our result for the first time shows the impact of nest sanitation on egg discrimination and demonstrates that nest sanitation can elicit egg discrimination in hosts of brood parasites. This study provided evidence for nest sanitation being a preadaptation to egg discrimination by facilitating egg rejection, thereby significantly advancing our understanding of avian cognition of foreign objects. Furthermore, we suggest that egg discrimination behavior in many accepters and intermediate rejecters may be lost or diluted. Such egg discrimination can be elicited and restored after nest sanitation, implying a sensitive and rapid phenotypic response to increased risk of parasitism. Our study offers a novel perspective for investigating the role of so-called intermediate rejecter individuals or species in the long-term coevolutionary cycle between brood parasites and their hosts.

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed-species colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brussee, Brianne E.; Coates, Peter S.; Hothem, Roger L.; Howe, Kristy; Casazza, Michael L.; Eadie, John M.

2016-01-01

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in-depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black-crowned Night-Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video-monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3-year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model-averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24-h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night-Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed-species colony with Night-Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2-year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night-Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night-Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.

Morning Nest Arrivals in Cowbird Hosts: their Role in Aggression, Cowbird Recognition, and Host Response to Parasitism

Treesearch

Dirk E. Burhans

2000-01-01

Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea) nesting in old-field habitats in central Missouri are parasitized at least four times as often as Field Sparrows. I used model cowbirds placed near nests to test if host aggression explained this difference. Although both Field Sparrows and Indigo Buntings responded to Brown-headed Cowbird models with significantly...

Construction of nested maximin designs based on successive local enumeration and modified novel global harmony search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Jin; Li, Xinyu; Xiao, Mi; Xu, Junnan; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

Engineering design often involves different types of simulation, which results in expensive computational costs. Variable fidelity approximation-based design optimization approaches can realize effective simulation and efficiency optimization of the design space using approximation models with different levels of fidelity and have been widely used in different fields. As the foundations of variable fidelity approximation models, the selection of sample points of variable-fidelity approximation, called nested designs, is essential. In this article a novel nested maximin Latin hypercube design is constructed based on successive local enumeration and a modified novel global harmony search algorithm. In the proposed nested designs, successive local enumeration is employed to select sample points for a low-fidelity model, whereas the modified novel global harmony search algorithm is employed to select sample points for a high-fidelity model. A comparative study with multiple criteria and an engineering application are employed to verify the efficiency of the proposed nested designs approach.

Preference elicitation approach for measuring the willingness to pay for liver cancer treatment in Korea.

PubMed

Cho, Donghun; Jo, Changik

2015-09-01

The Korean government has expanded the coverage of the national insurance scheme for four major diseases: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and rare diseases. This policy may have a detrimental effect on the budget of the national health insurance agency. Like taxes, national insurance premiums are levied on the basis of the income or wealth of the insured. Using a preference elicitation method, we attempted to estimate how much people are willing to pay for insurance premiums that would expand their coverage for liver cancer treatment. We calculated the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) through the marginal rate of substitution between the two attributes of the insurance premium and the total annual treatment cost by adopting conditional logit and mixed logit models. The effects of various other terms that could interact with socioeconomic status were also estimated, such as gender, income level, educational attainment, age, employment status, and marital status. The estimated MWTP values of the monthly insurance premium for liver cancer treatment range from 4,130 KRW to 9,090 KRW.

Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

A survey of nested grid techniques and their potential for use within the MASS weather prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Steven E.; Mcqueen, Jeffery T.

1987-01-01

A survey of various one- and two-way interactive nested grid techniques used in hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The techniques for specifying the lateral boundary conditions for each nested grid scheme are described in detail. Averaging and interpolation techniques used when applying the coarse mesh grid (CMG) and fine mesh grid (FMG) interface conditions during two-way nesting are discussed separately. The survey shows that errors are commonly generated at the boundary between the CMG and FMG due to boundary formulation or specification discrepancies. Methods used to control this noise include application of smoothers, enhanced diffusion, or damping-type time integration schemes to model variables. The results from this survey provide the information needed to decide which one-way and two-way nested grid schemes merit future testing with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model. An analytically specified baroclinic wave will be used to conduct systematic tests of the chosen schemes since this will allow for objective determination of the interfacial noise in the kind of meteorological setting for which MASS is designed. Sample diagnostic plots from initial tests using the analytic wave are presented to illustrate how the model-generated noise is ascertained. These plots will be used to compare the accuracy of the various nesting schemes when incorporated into the MASS model.

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Predation as a landscape effect: the trading off by prey species between predation risks and protection benefits.

PubMed

Mönkkönen, M; Husby, M; Tornberg, R; Helle, P; Thomson, R L

2007-05-01

1. Predators impose costs on their prey but may also provide benefits such as protection against other (e.g. nest) predators. The optimal breeding location in relation to the distance from a nesting raptor varies so as to minimize the sum of costs of adult and nest predation. We provide a conceptual model to account for variation in the relative predation risks and derive qualitative predictions for how different prey species should respond to the distance from goshawk Accipiter gentilis nests. 2. We test the model predictions using a comprehensive collection of data from northern Finland and central Norway. First, we carried out a series of experiments with artificial bird nests to test if goshawks may provide protection against nest predation. Second, we conducted standard bird censuses and nest-box experiments to detect how the density or territory occupancy of several prey species varies with distance from the nearest goshawk nest. 3. Nest predation rate increased with distance from goshawk nest indicating that goshawks may provide protection for birds' nests against nest predation. Abundance (or probability of presence) of the main prey species of goshawks peaked at intermediate distances from goshawk nests, reflecting the trade-off. The abundance of small songbird species decreased with distance from goshawk nests. The goshawk poses little risk to small songbirds and they may benefit from goshawk proximity in protection against nest predation. Finally, no pattern with distance in pied flycatcher territory (nest box) occupation rate or the onset of egg-laying was detected. This is expected, as flycatchers neither suffer from marked nest predation risk nor are favoured goshawk prey. 4. Our results suggest that territory location in relation to the nest of a predator is a trade-off situation where adult birds weigh the risk of themselves being predated against the benefits accrued from increased nest survival. Prey species appear able to detect and measure alternative predation risks, and respond adaptively. From the prey perspective, the landscape is a mosaic of habitat patches the quality of which varies according to structural and floristic features, but also to the spatial distribution of predators.

Household's willingness to pay for heterogeneous attributes of drinking water quality and services improvement: an application of choice experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dauda, Suleiman Alhaji; Yacob, Mohd Rusli; Radam, Alias

2015-09-01

The service of providing good quality of drinking water can greatly improve the lives of the community and maintain a normal health standard. For a large number of population in the world, specifically in the developing countries, the availability of safe water for daily sustenance is none. Damaturu is the capital of Yobe State, Nigeria. It hosts a population of more than two hundred thousand, yet only 45 % of the households are connected to the network of Yobe State Water Corporation's pipe borne water services; this has led people to source for water from any available source and thus, exposed them to the danger of contracting waterborne diseases. In order to address the problem, Yobe State Government has embarked on the construction of a water treatment plant with a capacity and facility to improve the water quality and connect the town with water services network. The objectives of this study are to assess the households' demand preferences of the heterogeneous water attributes in Damaturu, and to estimate their marginal willingness to pay, using mixed logit model in comparison with conditional logit model. A survey of 300 households randomly sampled indicated that higher education greatly influenced the households' WTP decisions. The most significant variable from both of the models is TWQ, which is MRS that rates the water quality from the level of satisfactory to very good. 219 % in simple model is CLM, while 126 % is for the interaction model. As for MLM, 685 % is for the simple model and 572 % is for the interaction model. Estimate of MLM has more explanatory powers than CLM. Essentially, this finding can help the government in designing cost-effective management and efficient tariff structure.

[Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction for portal hypertensive gastropathy in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis].

PubMed

Wang, Qingliang; Li, Xiaojie; Hu, Kunpeng; Zhao, Kun; Yang, Peisheng; Liu, Bo

2015-05-12

To explore the risk factors of portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis and establish a Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction. The clinical data of 234 hospitalized patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis from March 2012 to March 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. The dependent variable was the occurrence of PHG while the independent variables were screened by binary Logistic analysis. Multivariate Logistic regression was used for further analysis of significant noninvasive independent variables. Logistic regression model was established and odds ratio was calculated for each factor. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of model were evaluated by the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC). According to univariate Logistic regression, the risk factors included hepatic dysfunction, albumin (ALB), bilirubin (TB), prothrombin time (PT), platelet (PLT), white blood cell (WBC), portal vein diameter, spleen index, splenic vein diameter, diameter ratio, PLT to spleen volume ratio, esophageal varices (EV) and gastric varices (GV). Multivariate analysis showed that hepatic dysfunction (X1), TB (X2), PLT (X3) and splenic vein diameter (X4) were the major occurring factors for PHG. The established regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4. The accuracy of model for PHG was 79.1% with a sensitivity of 77.2% and a specificity of 80.8%. Hepatic dysfunction, TB, PLT and splenic vein diameter are risk factors for PHG and the noninvasive predicted Logistic regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4.

Estimating preferences for local public services using migration data.

PubMed

Dahlberg, Matz; Eklöf, Matias; Fredriksson, Peter; Jofre-Monseny, Jordi

2012-01-01

Using Swedish micro data, the paper examines the impact of local public services on community choice. The choice of community is modelled as a choice between a discrete set of alternatives. It is found that, given taxes, high spending on child care attracts migrants. Less conclusive results are obtained with respect to the role of spending on education and elderly care. High local taxes deter migrants. Relaxing the independence of the irrelevant alternatives assumption, by estimating a mixed logit model, has a significant impact on the results.

Spatial Ecology of Estuarine Crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) Nesting in a Fragmented Landscape.

PubMed

Evans, Luke J; Jones, T Hefin; Pang, Keeyen; Saimin, Silvester; Goossens, Benoit

2016-09-19

The role that oil palm plays in the Lower Kinabatangan region of Eastern Sabah is of considerable scientific and conservation interest, providing a model habitat for many tropical regions as they become increasingly fragmented. Crocodilians, as apex predators, widely distributed throughout the tropics, are ideal indicator species for ecosystem health. Drones (or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) were used to identify crocodile nests in a fragmented landscape. Flights were targeted through the use of fuzzy overlay models and nests located primarily in areas indicated as suitable habitat. Nests displayed a number of similarities in terms of habitat characteristics allowing for refined modelling of survey locations. As well as being more cost-effective compared to traditional methods of nesting survey, the use of drones also enabled a larger survey area to be completed albeit with a limited number of flights. The study provides a methodology for targeted nest surveying, as well as a low-cost repeatable flight methodology. This approach has potential for widespread applicability across a range of species and for a variety of study designs.

Spatial Ecology of Estuarine Crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) Nesting in a Fragmented Landscape

PubMed Central

Evans, Luke J.; Jones, T. Hefin; Pang, Keeyen; Saimin, Silvester; Goossens, Benoit

2016-01-01

The role that oil palm plays in the Lower Kinabatangan region of Eastern Sabah is of considerable scientific and conservation interest, providing a model habitat for many tropical regions as they become increasingly fragmented. Crocodilians, as apex predators, widely distributed throughout the tropics, are ideal indicator species for ecosystem health. Drones (or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) were used to identify crocodile nests in a fragmented landscape. Flights were targeted through the use of fuzzy overlay models and nests located primarily in areas indicated as suitable habitat. Nests displayed a number of similarities in terms of habitat characteristics allowing for refined modelling of survey locations. As well as being more cost-effective compared to traditional methods of nesting survey, the use of drones also enabled a larger survey area to be completed albeit with a limited number of flights. The study provides a methodology for targeted nest surveying, as well as a low-cost repeatable flight methodology. This approach has potential for widespread applicability across a range of species and for a variety of study designs. PMID:27657065

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in the lower troposphere. Outside Africa over the Atlantic or in Europe the effect of the 2-way nesting becomes visible after some days of simulation. The changes in error measures are not as clear as in the nesting region itself but still improvements for some variables at different altitudes are evident, most likely due to a better representation of African easterly waves and Rossby waves. This work shows the importance of the West African region for global weather forecasts and the potential of convective permitting modelling in this region to improve the forecasts even far away from Africa in the future.

A Primer for Analyzing Nested Data: Multilevel Modeling in SPSS Using an Example from a REL Study. REL 2015-046

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Dwyer, Laura M.; Parker, Caroline E.

2014-01-01

Analyzing data that possess some form of nesting is often challenging for applied researchers or district staff who are involved in or in charge of conducting data analyses. This report provides a description of the challenges for analyzing nested data and provides a primer of how multilevel regression modeling may be used to resolve these…

Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

Treesearch

Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

2005-01-01

The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

Variability in individual assessment behaviour and its implications for collective decision-making.

PubMed

O'Shea-Wheller, Thomas A; Masuda, Naoki; Sendova-Franks, Ana B; Franks, Nigel R

2017-02-08

Self-organized systems of collective behaviour have been demonstrated in a number of group-living organisms. There is, however, less research relating to how variation in individual assessments may facilitate group decision-making. Here, we investigate this using the decentralized system of collective nest choice behaviour employed by the ant Temnothorax albipennis, combining experimental results with computational modelling. In experiments, isolated workers of this species were allowed to investigate new nest sites of differing quality, and it was found that for any given nest quality, there was wide variation among individuals in the durations that they spent within each nest site. Additionally, individual workers were consistent in spending more time in nest sites of higher quality, and less time in those of lower quality. Hence, the time spent in a new nest site must have included an assessment of nest quality. As nest site visit durations (henceforth termed assessment durations) are linked to recruitment, it is possible that the variability we observed may influence the collective decision-making process of colonies. Thus, we explored this further using a computational model of nest site selection, and found that heterogeneous nest assessments conferred a number of potential benefits. Furthermore, our experiments showed that nest quality assessments were flexible, being influenced by experience of prior options. Our findings help to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying group behaviour, and highlight the importance of heterogeneity among individuals, rather than precise calibration, in shaping collective decision-making. © 2017 The Author(s).

Nest survival of piping plovers at a dynamic reservoir indicates an ecological trap for a threatened population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2012-01-01

In the past 60 years, reservoirs have reshaped riverine ecosystems and transformed breeding habitats used by the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). Currently, 29% of the Northern Great Plains plover population nests at reservoirs that might function as ecological traps because reservoirs have more diverse habitat features and greater dynamics in water levels than habitats historically used by breeding plovers. We examined factors influencing daily survival rates (DSR) of 346 plover nests at Lake Sakakawea (SAK; reservoir) during 2006–2009 by evaluating multiple a priori models, and we used our best model to hindcast nest success of plovers during 1985–2009. Our observed and hindcast estimates of nest success were low compared to published estimates. Previous findings indicate that plovers prefer nest sites that are low relative to water level. We found that elevation of nests above the water level had a strong positive correlation with DSR because water levels of SAK typically increased throughout the nesting period. Habitat characteristics on the reservoir differ from those that shaped nest-site selection for plovers. Accordingly, extraordinary nest loss occurs there in many years, largely due to inundation of nests, and based on low fledging rates those losses were not compensated by potential changes in chick survival. Therefore, our example supports the concept of ecological traps in birds because it addresses quantitative assessments of habitat preference and productivity over 25 years (since species listing) and affects a large portion of the population.

Nested high-resolution large-eddy simulations in WRF to support wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirocha, J.; Kirkil, G.; Kosovic, B.; Lundquist, J. K.

2009-12-01

The WRF model’s grid nesting capability provides a potentially powerful framework for simulating flow over a wide range of scales. One such application is computation of realistic inflow boundary conditions for large eddy simulations (LES) by nesting LES domains within mesoscale domains. While nesting has been widely and successfully applied at GCM to mesoscale resolutions, the WRF model’s nesting behavior at the high-resolution (Δx < 1000m) end of the spectrum is less well understood. Nesting LES within msoscale domains can significantly improve turbulent flow prediction at the scale of a wind park, providing a basis for superior site characterization, or for improved simulation of turbulent inflows encountered by turbines. We investigate WRF’s grid nesting capability at high mesh resolutions using nested mesoscale and large-eddy simulations. We examine the spatial scales required for flow structures to equilibrate to the finer mesh as flow enters a nest, and how the process depends on several parameters, including grid resolution, turbulence subfilter stress models, relaxation zones at nest interfaces, flow velocities, surface roughnesses, terrain complexity and atmospheric stability. Guidance on appropriate domain sizes and turbulence models for LES in light of these results is provided This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 LLNL-ABS-416482

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

A Ground-Nesting Galliform's Response to Thermal Heterogeneity: Implications for Ground-Dwelling Birds.

PubMed

Carroll, J Matthew; Davis, Craig A; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D

2015-01-01

The habitat selection choices that individuals make in response to thermal environments influence both survival and reproduction. Importantly, the way that organisms behaviorally respond to thermal environments depends on the availability and juxtaposition of sites affording tolerable or preferred microclimates. Although, ground nesting birds are especially susceptible to heat extremes across many reproductive stages (i.e., breeding, nesting, brood rearing), the mechanistic drivers of nest site selection for these species are not well established from a thermal perspective. Our goal was to assess nest site selection relative to the configuration of the thermal landscape by quantifying thermal environments available to a ground-nesting bird species inhabiting a climatically stressful environment. Using northern bobwhite (Colinus virginanus) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at 87 nests, 87 paired sites and 205 random landscape sites in Western Oklahoma during spring and summer 2013 and 2014. We found that thermal space within the study area exhibited differences in Tbb of up to 40°C during peak diurnal heating, resulting in a diverse thermal landscape available to ground-nesting birds. Within this thermally heterogeneous landscape, nest sites moderated Tbb by more than 12°C compared to random landscape sites. Furthermore, successful nests remained on average 6°C cooler than unsuccessful nests on days experiencing ambient temperatures ≥ 39°C. Models of future Tbb associated with 2080 climate change projections indicate that nesting bobwhites will face substantially greater Tbb throughout the landscape for longer durations, placing an even greater importance on thermal choices for nest sites in the future. These results highlight the capacity of landscape features to act as moderators of thermal extremes and demonstrate how thermal complexity at organism-specific scales can dictate habitat selection.

Hurricane disturbance benefits nesting American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Theodore R.; Schulte, Shiloh A.

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activity, introduced species, sea level rise, and storm activity. Hurricanes are a powerful destructive force, but can also renew coastal habitats. In 2003, Hurricane Isabel altered the barrier islands of North Carolina, flattening dunes and creating sand flats. American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) are large shorebirds that inhabit the coastal zone throughout the year. Alternative survival models were evaluated for 699 American Oystercatcher nests on North Core Banks and South Core Banks, North Carolina, USA, from 1999–2007. Nest survival on North Core Banks increased from 0.170 (SE = 0.002) to 0.772 (SE = 0.090) after the hurricane, with a carry-over effect lasting 2 years. A simple year effects model described nest survival on South Core Banks. Habitat had no effect on survival except when the overall rate of nest survival was at intermediate levels (0.300–0.600), when nests on open flats survived at a higher rate (0.600; SE = 0.112) than nests in dune habitat (0.243; SE = 0.094). Predator activity declined on North Core Banks after the hurricane and corresponded with an increase in nest survival. Periodic years with elevated nest survival may offset low annual productivity and contribute to the stability of American Oystercatcher populations.

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Eliciting preferences for waterpipe tobacco smoking using a discrete choice experiment: implications for product regulation

PubMed Central

Salloum, Ramzi G; Maziak, Wasim; Hammond, David; Nakkash, Rima; Islam, Farahnaz; Cheng, Xi; Thrasher, James F

2015-01-01

Objectives Waterpipe smoking is highly prevalent among university students, and has been increasing in popularity despite mounting evidence showing it is harmful to health. The aim of this study was to measure preferences for waterpipe smoking and determine which product characteristics are most important to smokers. Setting A large university in the Southeastern USA. Participants Adult waterpipe smokers attending the university (N=367). Design Participants completed an Internet-based discrete choice experiment to reveal their preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of hypothetical waterpipe smoking sessions. Participants were presented with waterpipe lounge menus, each with three fruit-flavoured options and one tobacco flavoured option, in addition to an opt out option. Nicotine content and price were provided for each choice. Participants were randomised to either receive menus with a text-only health-warning message or no message. Outcome measures Multinomial and nested logit models were used to estimate the impact on consumer choice of attributes and between-subject assignment of health warnings respectively. Results On average, participants preferred fruit-flavoured varieties to tobacco flavour. They were averse to options labelled with higher nicotine content. Females and non-smokers of cigarettes were more likely than their counterparts to prefer flavoured and nicotine-free varieties. Participants exposed to a health warning were more likely to opt out. Conclusions Fruit-flavoured tobacco and lower nicotine content labels, two strategies widely used by the industry, increase the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults. Waterpipe-specific regulation should limit the availability of flavoured waterpipe tobacco and require accurate labelling of constituents. Waterpipe-specific tobacco control regulation, along with research to inform policy, is required to curb this emerging public health threat. PMID:26353876

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, Brandi C.; Boal, Clint W.; Skipper, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Nest-site selection analysis of hooded crane (Grus monacha) in Northeastern China based on a multivariate ensemble model.

PubMed

Jiao, Shengwu; Guo, Yumin; Huettmann, Falk; Lei, Guangchun

2014-07-01

Avian nest-site selection is an important research and management subject. The hooded crane (Grus monacha) is a vulnerable (VU) species according to the IUCN Red List. Here, we present the first long-term Chinese legacy nest data for this species (1993-2010) with publicly available metadata. Further, we provide the first study that reports findings on multivariate nest habitat preference using such long-term field data for this species. Our work was carried out in Northeastern China, where we found and measured 24 nests and 81 randomly selected control plots and their environmental parameters in a vast landscape. We used machine learning (stochastic boosted regression trees) to quantify nest selection. Our analysis further included varclust (R Hmisc) and (TreenNet) to address statistical correlations and two-way interactions. We found that from an initial list of 14 measured field variables, water area (+), water depth (+) and shrub coverage (-) were the main explanatory variables that contributed to hooded crane nest-site selection. Agricultural sites played a smaller role in the selection of these nests. Our results are important for the conservation management of cranes all over East Asia and constitute a defensible and quantitative basis for predictive models.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development. PMID:26262876

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Tack, Jason D; Fedy, Bradley C

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Simulation and Sensitivity in a Nested Modeling System for South America. Part II: GCM Boundary Forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Maisa; Seth, Anji

2003-08-01

of this study, the RegCM's ability to simulate circulation and rainfall observed in the two extreme seasons was demonstrated when driven at the lateral boundaries by reanalyzed forcing. Seasonal integrations with the RegCM driven by GCM ensemble-derived lateral boundary forcing demonstrate that the nested model responds well to the SST forcing, by capturing the major features of the circulation and rainfall differences between the two years. The GCM-driven model also improves upon the monthly evolution of rainfall compared with that from the GCM. However, the nested model rainfall simulations for the two seasons are degraded compared with those from the reanalyses-driven RegCM integrations. The poor location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the GCM leads to excess rainfall in Nordeste in the nested model.An expanded domain was tested, wherein the RegCM was permitted more internal freedom to respond to SST and regional orographic forcing. Results show that the RegCM is able to improve the location of the ITCZ, and the seasonal evolution of rainfall in Nordeste, the Amazon region, and the southeastern region of Brazil. However, it remains that the limiting factor in the skill of the nested modeling system is the quality of the lateral boundary forcing provided by the global model.

Influence of human development and predators on nest survival of tundra birds, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska.

PubMed

Liebezeit, J R; Kendall, S J; Brown, S; Johnson, C B; Martin, P; McDonald, T L; Payer, D C; Rea, C L; Streever, B; Wildman, A M; Zack, S

2009-09-01

Nest predation may influence population dynamics of birds on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA. Anthropogenic development on the ACP is increasing, which may attract nest predators by providing artificial sources of food, perches, den sites, and nest sites. Enhanced populations or concentrations of human-subsidized predators may reduce nest survival for tundra-nesting birds. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that nest survival decreases in proximity to human infrastructure. We monitored 1257 nests of 13 shorebird species and 619 nests of four passerine species at seven sites on the ACP from 2002 to 2005. Study sites were chosen to represent a range of distances to infrastructure from 100 m to 80 km. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effects of background (i.e., natural) factors and infrastructure on nest survival. We documented high spatial and temporal variability in nest survival, and site and year were both included in the best background model. We did not detect an effect of human infrastructure on nest survival for shorebirds as a group. In contrast, we found evidence that risk of predation for passerine nests increased within 5 km of infrastructure. This finding provides quantitative evidence of a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for breeding passerines on the ACP. A posteriori finer-scale analyses (within oil field sites and individual species) suggested that Red and Red-necked Phalaropes combined (Phalaropus fulicarius, P. lobatus) had lower productivity closer to infrastructure and in areas with higher abundance of subsidized predators. However, we did not detect such a relationship between infrastructure and nest survival for Semipalmated and Pectoral Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla, C. melanotos), the two most abundant shorebirds. High variability in environmental conditions, nest survival, and predator numbers between sites and years may have contributed to these inconsistent results. We recommend targeted management actions to minimize anthropogenic effects and suggest new research needed on this issue as expanding development is planned for the ACP of Alaska. In particular, we recommend research on demography of key predators and their importance with respect to nest survival, and experimental studies that better address challenges posed by high natural variability.

Ecological consequences of colony structure in dynamic ant nest networks.

PubMed

Ellis, Samuel; Franks, Daniel W; Robinson, Elva J H

2017-02-01

Access to resources depends on an individual's position within the environment. This is particularly important to animals that invest heavily in nest construction, such as social insects. Many ant species have a polydomous nesting strategy: a single colony inhabits several spatially separated nests, often exchanging resources between the nests. Different nests in a polydomous colony potentially have differential access to resources, but the ecological consequences of this are unclear. In this study, we investigate how nest survival and budding in polydomous wood ant ( Formica lugubris ) colonies are affected by being part of a multi-nest system. Using field data and novel analytical approaches combining survival models with dynamic network analysis, we show that the survival and budding of nests within a polydomous colony are affected by their position in the nest network structure. Specifically, we find that the flow of resources through a nest, which is based on its position within the wider nest network, determines a nest's likelihood of surviving and of founding new nests. Our results highlight how apparently disparate entities in a biological system can be integrated into a functional ecological unit. We also demonstrate how position within a dynamic network structure can have important ecological consequences.

High-tech or field techs: Radio-telemetry is a cost-effective method for reducing bias in songbird nest searching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Sean M.; Streby, Henry M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Fish, Alexander C.; Andersen, David E.

2015-01-01

We compared the efficacy of standard nest-searching methods with finding nests via radio-tagged birds to assess how search technique influenced our determination of nest-site characteristics and nest success for Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera). We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using radio-tagged birds to find nests. Using standard nest-searching techniques for 3 populations, we found 111 nests in locations with habitat characteristics similar to those described in previous studies: edges between forest and relatively open areas of early successional vegetation or shrubby wetlands, with 43% within 5 m of forest edge. The 83 nests found using telemetry were about half as likely (23%) to be within 5 m of forest edge. We spent little time searching >25 m into forest because published reports state that Golden-winged Warblers do not nest there. However, 14 nests found using telemetry (18%) were >25 m into forest. We modeled nest success using nest-searching method, nest age, and distance to forest edge as explanatory variables. Nest-searching method explained nest success better than nest age alone; we estimated that nests found using telemetry were 10% more likely to fledge young than nests found using standard nest-searching methods. Although radio-telemetry was more expensive than standard nest searching, the cost-effectiveness of both methods differed depending on searcher experience, amount of equipment owned, and bird population density. Our results demonstrate that telemetry can be an effective method for reducing bias in Golden-winged Warbler nest samples, can be cost competitive with standard nest-searching methods in some situations, and is likely to be a useful approach for finding nests of other forest-nesting songbirds.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Selection of arboreal termitaria for nesting by cooperatively breeding Micronesian Kingfishers Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2005-01-01

Limited nest-site availability appears to be an important factor in the evolution of delayed dispersal and cooperative breeding in some cavity-nesting species. The cooperatively breeding Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii excavates nest cavities from the nests of arboreal termites Nasutitermes spp., or termitaria. In this first published description of nest-sites for this subspecies, we used surveys, remote sensing and radiotelemetry to evaluate the relationship between nest-site availability and co-operation. Results illustrate that nest termitaria are higher in the forest canopy, larger in volume and occur in areas with more contiguous canopy cover than unused termitaria. Nest termitaria were selected independently of the proximity to forest edges and territory boundaries, and we found no difference in characteristics of termitaria used by cooperative groups and breeding pairs. Logistic regression modelling indicated that termitaria with nest-like characteristics were not limited in abundance, suggesting that neither the prospects of inheriting nesting resources nor limited nest-site abundance are probable explanations for delayed dispersal in the Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher.

Development of a Kemp’s ridley sea turtle stock assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallaway, Benny J.; Gazey, William; Caillouet, Charles W.; Plotkin, Pamela T.; Abreu Grobois, F. Alberto; Amos, Anthony F.; Burchfield, Patrick M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Castro Martinez, Marco A.; Cole, John G.; Coleman, Andrew T.; Cook, Melissa; DiMarco, Steven F.; Epperly, Sheryan P.; Fujiwara, Masami; Gamez, Daniel Gomez; Graham, Gary L.; Griffin, Wade L.; Illescas Martinez, Francisco; Lamont, Margaret M.; Lewison, Rebecca L.; Lohmann, Kenneth J.; Nance, James M.; Pitchford, Jonathan; Putman, Nathan F.; Raborn, Scott W.; Rester, Jeffrey K.; Rudloe, Jack J.; Sarti Martinez, Laura; Schexnayder, Mark; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Shaver, Donna J.; Slay, Christopher; Tucker, Anton D.; Tumlin, Mandy; Wibbels, Thane; Zapata Najera, Blanca M.

2016-01-01

We developed a Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) stock assessment model to evaluate the relative contributions of conservation efforts and other factors toward this critically endangered species’ recovery. The Kemp’s ridley demographic model developed by the Turtle Expert Working Group (TEWG) in 1998 and 2000 and updated for the binational recovery plan in 2011 was modified for use as our base model. The TEWG model uses indices of the annual reproductive population (number of nests) and hatchling recruitment to predict future annual numbers of nests on the basis of a series of assumptions regarding age and maturity, remigration interval, sex ratios, nests per female, juvenile mortality, and a putative ‘‘turtle excluder device effect’’ multiplier starting in 1990. This multiplier was necessary to fit the number of nests observed in 1990 and later. We added the effects of shrimping effort directly, modified by habitat weightings, as a proxy for all sources of anthropogenic mortality. Additional data included in our model were incremental growth of Kemp’s ridleys marked and recaptured in the Gulf of Mexico, and the length frequency of stranded Kemp’s ridleys. We also added a 2010 mortality factor that was necessary to fit the number of nests for 2010 and later (2011 and 2012). Last, we used an empirical basis for estimating natural mortality, on the basis of a Lorenzen mortality curve and growth estimates. Although our model generated reasonable estimates of annual total turtle deaths attributable to shrimp trawling, as well as additional deaths due to undetermined anthropogenic causes in 2010, we were unable to provide a clear explanation for the observed increase in the number of stranded Kemp’s ridleys in recent years, and subsequent disruption of the species’ exponential growth since the 2009 nesting season. Our consensus is that expanded data collection at the nesting beaches is needed and of high priority, and that 2015 be targeted for the next stock assessment to evaluate the 2010 event using more recent nesting and in-water data.

A Comparison between Discrimination Indices and Item-Response Theory Using the Rasch Model in a Clinical Course Written Examination of a Medical School.

PubMed

Park, Jong Cook; Kim, Kwang Sig

2012-03-01

The reliability of test is determined by each items' characteristics. Item analysis is achieved by classical test theory and item response theory. The purpose of the study was to compare the discrimination indices with item response theory using the Rasch model. Thirty-one 4th-year medical school students participated in the clinical course written examination, which included 22 A-type items and 3 R-type items. Point biserial correlation coefficient (C(pbs)) was compared to method of extreme group (D), biserial correlation coefficient (C(bs)), item-total correlation coefficient (C(it)), and corrected item-total correlation coeffcient (C(cit)). Rasch model was applied to estimate item difficulty and examinee's ability and to calculate item fit statistics using joint maximum likelihood. Explanatory power (r2) of Cpbs is decreased in the following order: C(cit) (1.00), C(it) (0.99), C(bs) (0.94), and D (0.45). The ranges of difficulty logit and standard error and ability logit and standard error were -0.82 to 0.80 and 0.37 to 0.76, -3.69 to 3.19 and 0.45 to 1.03, respectively. Item 9 and 23 have outfit > or =1.3. Student 1, 5, 7, 18, 26, 30, and 32 have fit > or =1.3. C(pbs), C(cit), and C(it) are good discrimination parameters. Rasch model can estimate item difficulty parameter and examinee's ability parameter with standard error. The fit statistics can identify bad items and unpredictable examinee's responses.

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

2014-01-01

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Effect of nesting environment on incubation temperature and hatching success of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) in an urban lake of Southeastern Mexico.

PubMed

López-Luna, Marco A; Hidalgo-Mihart, Mircea G; Aguirre-León, Gustavo; González-Ramón, Mariana Del C; Rangel-Mendoza, Judith A

2015-01-01

Incubation temperature is an important aspect in terms of biological performance among crocodiles, and several controlled experiments have demonstrated a significant relationship between incubation temperature, success in hatching and survival of hatchlings. However, a few studies have tested these relationships in the wild. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of nest characteristics and environment (hatch year, nest basal area and height, clutch size, distance to shore line, and vegetation cover), to incubation temperature and hatching success among Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii). The study was carried out during the nesting seasons of Morelet's crocodile, from 2007 to 2009 in the Laguna de Las Ilusiones, an urban lake located in Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. We physically characterized 18 nests and inserted a temperature data logger in each nest chamber. At the end of the nesting season and prior to hatching, we recovered the crocodile eggs and data loggers and calculated hatching success, under laboratory conditions. We related the environmental variables of the nest with the mean and fluctuation (standard deviation) of nest temperature, using linear models. We also related the environmental variables affecting the nest, to mean nest temperature and fluctuation in incubation temperature and to hatching success, using linear models. Although we found differences in incubation temperature between nests, mean incubation temperature did not differ between years, but there were differences in nest thermal fluctuation between years. The mean incubation temperature for 11 nests (61.1%) was lower than the suggested Female-Male pivotal temperature (producing 50% of each sex) for this species, and all hatchlings obtained were males. There were no differences in clutch size between years, but hatching success varied. Our study indicates that hatching success depends on certain environmental variables and nest conditions to which the eggs are subjected, including season, nest size and clutch size. We also discuss the importance of the fluctuation of incubation temperature on hatching success and sex determination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

2017-05-01

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association between nighttime artificial light pollution and sea turtle nest density along Florida coast: A geospatial study using VIIRS remote sensing data.

PubMed

Hu, Zhiyong; Hu, Hongda; Huang, Yuxia

2018-08-01

Artificial lighting at night has becoming a new type of pollution posing an important anthropogenic environmental pressure on organisms. The objective of this research was to examine the potential association between nighttime artificial light pollution and nest densities of the three main sea turtle species along Florida beaches, including green turtles, loggerheads, and leatherbacks. Sea turtle survey data was obtained from the "Florida Statewide Nesting Beach Survey program". We used the new generation of satellite sensor "Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)" (version 1 D/N Band) nighttime annual average radiance composite image data. We defined light pollution as artificial light brightness greater than 10% of the natural sky brightness above 45° of elevation (>1.14 × 10 -11 Wm -2 sr -1 ). We fitted a generalized linear model (GLM), a GLM with eigenvectors spatial filtering (GLM-ESF), and a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach for each species to examine the potential correlation of nest density with light pollution. Our models are robust and reliable in terms of the ability to deal with data distribution and spatial autocorrelation (SA) issues violating model assumptions. All three models found that nest density is significantly negatively correlated with light pollution for each sea turtle species: the higher light pollution, the lower nest density. The two spatially extended models (GLM-ESF and GEE) show that light pollution influences nest density in a descending order from green turtles, to loggerheads, and then to leatherbacks. The research findings have an implication for sea turtle conservation policy and ordinance making. Near-coastal lights-out ordinances and other approaches to shield lights can protect sea turtles and their nests. The VIIRS DNB light data, having significant improvements over comparable data by its predecessor, the DMSP-OLS, shows promise for continued and improved research about ecological effects of artificial light pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Drever, Mark C; Gyug, Les W; Nielsen, Jennifer; Stuart-Smith, A Kari; Ohanjanian, I Penny; Martin, Kathy

2015-01-01

Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus) is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS) data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm) western larch (Larix occidentalis) trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Strategies for nest-site selection by king eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Suydam, R.S.

2009-01-01

Nest site selection is a critical component of reproduction and has presumably evolved in relation to predation, local resources, and microclimate. We investigated nest-site choice by king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) on the coastal plain of northern Alaska, USA, 2003-2005. We hypothesized that nest-site selection is driven by predator avoidance and that a variety of strategies including concealment, seclusion, and conspecific or inter-specific nest defense might lead to improved nesting success. We systematically searched wetland basins for king eider nests and measured habitat and social variables at nests (n = 212) and random locations (n = 493). King eiders made use of both secluded and concealed breeding strategies; logistic regression models revealed that females selected nests close to water, on islands, and in areas with high willow (Salix spp.) cover but did not select sites near conspecific or glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) nests. The most effective nest-placement strategy may vary depending on density and types of nest predators; seclusion is likely a mammalian-predator avoidance tactic whereas concealment may provide protection from avian predators. We recommend that managers in northern Alaska attempt to maintain wetland basins with islands and complex shorelines to provide potential nest sites in the vicinity of water. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Linkage Analysis of Urine Arsenic Species Patterns in the Strong Heart Family Study

PubMed Central

Gribble, Matthew O.; Voruganti, Venkata Saroja; Cole, Shelley A.; Haack, Karin; Balakrishnan, Poojitha; Laston, Sandra L.; Tellez-Plaza, Maria; Francesconi, Kevin A.; Goessler, Walter; Umans, Jason G.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Gilliland, Frank; North, Kari E.; Franceschini, Nora; Navas-Acien, Ana

2015-01-01

Arsenic toxicokinetics are important for disease risks in exposed populations, but genetic determinants are not fully understood. We examined urine arsenic species patterns measured by HPLC-ICPMS among 2189 Strong Heart Study participants 18 years of age and older with data on ∼400 genome-wide microsatellite markers spaced ∼10 cM and arsenic speciation (683 participants from Arizona, 684 from Oklahoma, and 822 from North and South Dakota). We logit-transformed % arsenic species (% inorganic arsenic, %MMA, and %DMA) and also conducted principal component analyses of the logit % arsenic species. We used inverse-normalized residuals from multivariable-adjusted polygenic heritability analysis for multipoint variance components linkage analysis. We also examined the contribution of polymorphisms in the arsenic metabolism gene AS3MT via conditional linkage analysis. We localized a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 10 (LOD 4.12 for %MMA, 4.65 for %DMA, and 4.84 for the first principal component of logit % arsenic species). This peak was partially but not fully explained by measured AS3MT variants. We also localized a QTL for the second principal component of logit % arsenic species on chromosome 5 (LOD 4.21) that was not evident from considering % arsenic species individually. Some other loci were suggestive or significant for 1 geographical area but not overall across all areas, indicating possible locus heterogeneity. This genome-wide linkage scan suggests genetic determinants of arsenic toxicokinetics to be identified by future fine-mapping, and illustrates the utility of principal component analysis as a novel approach that considers % arsenic species jointly. PMID:26209557

An Objective Screening Method for Major Depressive Disorder Using Logistic Regression Analysis of Heart Rate Variability Data Obtained in a Mental Task Paradigm.

PubMed

Sun, Guanghao; Shinba, Toshikazu; Kirimoto, Tetsuo; Matsui, Takemi

2016-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) has been intensively studied as a promising biological marker of major depressive disorder (MDD). Our previous study confirmed that autonomic activity and reactivity in depression revealed by HRV during rest and mental task (MT) conditions can be used as diagnostic measures and in clinical evaluation. In this study, logistic regression analysis (LRA) was utilized for the classification and prediction of MDD based on HRV data obtained in an MT paradigm. Power spectral analysis of HRV on R-R intervals before, during, and after an MT (random number generation) was performed in 44 drug-naïve patients with MDD and 47 healthy control subjects at Department of Psychiatry in Shizuoka Saiseikai General Hospital. Logit scores of LRA determined by HRV indices and heart rates discriminated patients with MDD from healthy subjects. The high frequency (HF) component of HRV and the ratio of the low frequency (LF) component to the HF component (LF/HF) correspond to parasympathetic and sympathovagal balance, respectively. The LRA achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0 and 79.0%, respectively, at an optimum cutoff logit score (0.28). Misclassifications occurred only when the logit score was close to the cutoff score. Logit scores also correlated significantly with subjective self-rating depression scale scores ( p  < 0.05). HRV indices recorded during a MT may be an objective tool for screening patients with MDD in psychiatric practice. The proposed method appears promising for not only objective and rapid MDD screening but also evaluation of its severity.

Landscape alterations influence differential habitat use of nesting buteos and ravens within sagebrush ecosystem: implications for transmission line development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

A goal in avian ecology is to understand factors that influence differences in nesting habitat and distribution among species, especially within changing landscapes. Over the past 2 decades, humans have altered sagebrush ecosystems as a result of expansion in energy production and transmission. Our primary study objective was to identify differences in the use of landscape characteristics and natural and anthropogenic features by nesting Common Ravens (Corvus corax) and 3 species of buteo (Swainson's Hawk [Buteo swainsoni], Red-tailed Hawk [B. jamaicensis], and Ferruginous Hawk [B. regalis]) within a sagebrush ecosystem in southeastern Idaho. During 2007–2009, we measured multiple environmental factors associated with 212 nest sites using data collected remotely and in the field. We then developed multinomial models to predict nesting probabilities by each species and predictive response curves based on model-averaged estimates. We found differences among species related to nesting substrate (natural vs. anthropogenic), agriculture, native grassland, and edge (interface of 2 cover types). Most important, ravens had a higher probability of nesting on anthropogenic features (0.80) than the other 3 species (Artemisia spp.), favoring increased numbers of nesting ravens and fewer nesting Ferruginous Hawks. Our results indicate that habitat alterations, fragmentation, and forthcoming disturbances anticipated with continued energy development in sagebrush steppe ecosystems can lead to predictable changes in raptor and raven communities.

Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

1988-01-01

A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Modal split model considering carpool mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lyles, R.W.

1979-03-01

Modal split remains a primary concern of transportation planners as the state-of-the art has developed from diversion curves to behavioral models. The approach taken here is to formulate the mode-choice decision for the work trip as a linear combination of real and perceived characteristics of the modes considered. The logit formulation is used with three modes being considered: two automobile modes (drive-alone and carpool) and a public transit mode (bus). The final model provides insight into which factors are important in travel decisions among these three modes and the importance of examining traveler's perceptions of the differences among modes relativemore » to actual measurable differences.« less

A Framework for the Analysis of the Reserve Officer Augmentation Process in the United States Marine Corps

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

occupation group, category (i.e., strength, loss, etc.), years of commissioned service (YCS), grade, occupation, source of commission, education, sex ...OF MCORP OUTPUT OCCUPATION GROUP: All CAT: Strength YCS: 01 - 09 GRADE: All Unrestricted Officers OCCUPATION: All SOURCE: All EDUCATION: All SEX : All...source of commission, sex , MOS, GCT, and other pertinent variables such as the performance index. A Probit or Logit model could be utilized. The variables

When are goshawks not there? Is a single visit enough to infer absence at occupied nest areas? Journal of Raptor Research

Treesearch

Douglas A. Boyce; Patricia L. Kennedy; Paul Beier; Michael F. Ingraldi; Susie R. MacVean; Melissa S. Siders; John R. Squires; Brian Woodbridge

2005-01-01

We tested the efficacy of three methods (historical nest search, broadcast search, and tree transect search) for detecting presence of the Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) at occupied nest areas during the 1994 breeding season using only a single visit to a previously known nest area. We used detection rates in a probability model to determine how many...

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata).

PubMed

Hall, Zachary J; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E; Meddle, Simone L; Healy, Susan D

2014-05-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural correlates of nesting behavior in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata)

PubMed Central

Hall, Zachary J.; Bertin, Marion; Bailey, Ida E.; Meddle, Simone L.; Healy, Susan D.

2014-01-01

Nest building in birds involves a behavioral sequence (nest material collection and deposition in the nest) that offers a unique model for addressing how the brain sequences motor actions. In this study, we identified brain regions involved in nesting behavior in male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). We used Fos immunohistochemistry to quantify production of the immediate early gene protein product Fos (a molecular indicator of neuronal activity) in the brain correlated this expression with the variation in nesting behavior. Using this technique, we found that neural circuitry involved in motor sequencing, social behavior, reward and motivation were active during nesting. Within pairs of nesting birds, the number of times a male picked up or deposited nesting material and the amount of time a female spent in the nest explained the variation in Fos expression in the anterior motor pathway, social behavior network, and reward neural circuits. Identification of the brain regions that are involved in nesting enables us to begin studying the roles of motor sequencing, context, and reward in construction behavior at the neural level. PMID:24508238

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartke, Kevin M.; Grand, J.B.; Hepp, G.R.; Folk, T.H.

2006-01-01

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Transferability of habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers associated with wildfire

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Vicki Saab; Jeff P. Hollenbeck; Jonathan G. Dudley

2016-01-01

Following wildfire, forest managers are challenged with meeting both socioeconomic demands (e.g., salvage logging) and mandates requiring habitat conservation for disturbance-associated wildlife (e.g., woodpeckers). Habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers can be informative, but tests of model transferability are needed to understand how broadly...

Street choice logit model for visitors in shopping districts.

PubMed

Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-09-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people's activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that "have more shops, and are wider and lower". In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive).

Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

PubMed Central

Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

Site selection and nest survival of the Bar-Headed Goose (Anser indicus) on the Mongolian Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Batbayar, Nyambayar; Takekawa, John Y.; Natsagdorj, Tseveenmyadag; Spragens, Kyle A.; Xiao, Xiamgming

2014-01-01

Waterbirds breeding on the Mongolian Plateau in Central Asia must find suitable wetland areas for nesting in a semiarid region characterized by highly variable water conditions. The first systematic nesting study of a waterbird dependent on this region for breeding was conducted on the Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus). The purpose of this study was to document Bar-headed Goose nesting locations, characterize nests and nesting strategies, and estimate daily nest survival (n = 235 nests) from eight areas of west-central Mongolia across three summers (2009–2011) using a modified Mayfield estimator. Bar-headed Goose daily nest survival ranged from 0.94 to 0.98, with a 3-year average nest success of 42.6% during incubation. Bar-headed Geese were found to primarily nest on isolated pond and lake islands as previously reported, but were also documented regularly, though less frequently, along rocky cliffs in several regions of west-central Mongolia. Daily nest survival was higher for cliff nests than for island nests. Information-theoretic models indicated that nest survival decreased with nest age and varied annually with changing environmental conditions. Results of this study suggest that while Bar-headed Geese primarily rely on nesting island sites these sites may be more susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and predation events influenced by seasonal variation in environmental conditions, and that higher daily nest survival values documented for the less frequent cliff nest strategy may provide an important alternative strategy during poor island nest success years. Thus, conservation efforts for this and other waterbird species in the semiarid region should be focused on conserving nesting islands and protecting them from disturbance in areas of high livestock densities experiencing a rapidly warming climate.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

PubMed Central

Morreale, Stephen J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R.

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Patel, Samir H; Morreale, Stephen J; Saba, Vincent S; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R

2016-01-01

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

Nested-grid simulation of mercury over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Jaeglé, L.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Holmes, C. D.; Amos, H. M.; Wang, Q.; Talbot, R.; Artz, R.; Brooks, S.; Luke, W.; Holsen, T. M.; Felton, D.; Miller, E. K.; Perry, K. D.; Schmeltz, D.; Steffen, A.; Tordon, R.; Weiss-Penzias, P.; Zsolway, R.

2012-01-01

We have developed a new high-resolution (1/2° latitude by 2/3° longitude) nested-grid mercury (Hg) simulation over North America employing the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Emissions, chemistry, deposition, and meteorology are self-consistent between the global and nested domains. Compared to the global model (4° latitude by 5° longitude), the nested model shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial and temporal variability of Hg wet deposition over North America observed by the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in 2008-2009. The nested simulation resolves features such as land/ocean contrast and higher deposition due to orographic precipitation, and predicts more efficient convective rain scavenging of Hg over the southeast United States. However, the nested model overestimates Hg wet deposition over the Ohio River Valley region (ORV) by 27%. We modify anthropogenic emission speciation profiles in the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) to account for the rapid in-plume reduction of reactive to elemental Hg (IPR simulation). This leads to a decrease in the model bias to +3% over the ORV region. Over the contiguous US, the correlation coefficient (r) between MDN observations and our IPR simulation increases from 0.63 to 0.78. The IPR nested simulation generally reproduces the seasonal cycle in surface concentrations of speciated Hg from the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) and Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Network (CAMNet). In the IPR simulation, annual mean reactive gaseous and particulate-bound Hg are within 80% and 10% of observations, respectively. In contrast, the simulation with unmodified anthropogenic Hg speciation profiles overestimates these observations by factors of 2 to 4. The nested model shows improved skill at capturing the horizontal variability of Hg observed over California during the ARCTAS aircraft campaign. We find that North American anthropogenic emissions account for 10-22% of Hg wet deposition flux over the US, depending on the anthropogenic emissions speciation profile assumed. The percent contribution can be as high as 60% near large point emission sources in ORV. The contribution for the dry deposition is 13-20%.

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

PubMed

Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

PubMed Central

Borgmann, Kathi L.; Conway, Courtney J.; Morrison, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation. PMID:23776566

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Effects of human recreation on the incubation behavior of American Oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Simons, T.R.

2006-01-01

Human recreational disturbance and its effects on wildlife demographics and behavior is an increasingly important area of research. We monitored the nesting success of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) in coastal North Carolina in 2002 and 2003. We also used video monitoring at nests to measure the response of incubating birds to human recreation. We counted the number of trips per hour made by adult birds to and from the nest, and we calculated the percent time that adults spent incubating. We asked whether human recreational activities (truck, all-terrain vehicle [ATV], and pedestrian traffic) were correlated with parental behavioral patterns. Eleven a priori models of nest survival and behavioral covariates were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to see whether incubation behavior influenced nest survival. Factors associated with birds leaving their nests (n = 548) included ATV traffic (25%), truck traffic (17%), pedestrian traffic (4%), aggression with neighboring oystercatchers or paired birds exchanging incubation duties (26%), airplane traffic (1%) and unknown factors (29%). ATV traffic was positively associated with the rate of trips to and away from the nest (??1 = 0.749, P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with percent time spent incubating (??1 = -0.037, P = 0.025). Other forms of human recreation apparently had little effect on incubation behaviors. Nest survival models incorporating the frequency of trips by adults to and from the nest, and the percentage of time adults spent incubating, were somewhat supported in the AIC analyses. A low frequency of trips to and from the nest and, counter to expectations, low percent time spent incubating were associated with higher daily nest survival rates. These data suggest that changes in incubation behavior might be one mechanism by which human recreation affects the reproductive success of American Oystercatchers.

Habitat edges affect patterns of artificial nest predation along a wetland-meadow boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvorov, Petr; Svobodová, Jana; Albrecht, Tomáš

2014-08-01

Wetland habitats are among the most endangered ecosystems in the world. However, little is known about factors affecting the nesting success of birds in pristine grass-dominated wetlands. During three breeding periods we conducted an experiment with artificial ground nests to test two basic mechanisms (the matrix and ecotonal effects) that may result in edge effects on nest predation in grass-dominated wetland habitats. Whereas the matrix effect model supposes that predator penetrate from habitat of higher predator density to habitat of lower predator density, thus causing an edge effect in the latter, according to the ecotonal effect model predators preferentially use edge habitats over habitat interiors. In addition, we tested the edge effect in a wetland habitat using artificial shrub nests that simulated the real nests of small open-cup nesting passerines. In our study area, the lowest predation rates on ground nests were found in wetland interiors and were substantially higher along the edges of both wetland and meadow habitat. However, predation was not significantly different between meadow and wetland interiors, indicating that both mechanisms can be responsible for the edge effect in wetland edges. An increased predation rate along wetland edges was also observed for shrub nests, and resembled the predation pattern of real shrub nests in the same study area. Though we are not able to distinguish between the two mechanisms of the edge effect found, our results demonstrate that species nesting in wetland edges bordering arable land may be exposed to higher predation. Therefore, an increase in the size of wetland patches that would lead to a reduced proportion of edge areas might be a suitable management practice to protect wetland bird species in cultural European landscapes.

Construction patterns of birds' nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours.

PubMed

Biddle, Lucia; Goodman, Adrian M; Deeming, D Charles

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch ( Pyrrhula pyrrhula ) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a "twig" nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, C. N.; Kostal, H.

1983-01-01

Multi-channel LANDSAT data are collected in several passes over agricultural areas during the growing season. How empirical Bayes modeling can be used to develop crop identification and discrimination techniques that account for spatial correlation in such data is considered. The approach models the unobservable parameters and the data separately, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the bulk of spatial correlation lies in the parameter process. The problem is then framed in terms of estimating posterior probabilities of crop types for each spatial area. Some empirical Bayes spatial estimation methods are used to estimate the logits of these probabilities.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Comparing Regression Coefficients between Nested Linear Models for Clustered Data with Generalized Estimating Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Jun; Aseltine, Robert H., Jr.; Harel, Ofer

2013-01-01

Comparing regression coefficients between models when one model is nested within another is of great practical interest when two explanations of a given phenomenon are specified as linear models. The statistical problem is whether the coefficients associated with a given set of covariates change significantly when other covariates are added into…

Reproductive rate and temporal spacing of nesting of red-winged blackbirds in upland habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolbeer, Richard A.

1976-01-01

The literature contains numerous studies on Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) reproduction. Francis (1971) summarized eight studies dealing with nesting success. These and other studies have also provided information on breeding chronology, clutch sizes, sex ratios, survival rates for eggs and nestlings, reproductive physiology, and other life history aspects of reproduction. With few exceptions, these studies have provided no data on the number of young fledged per female, per territorial male, or per unit area. This is especially true for upland nesting habitats where, at least in the midwestern United States, most Red-wings now nest (Graber and Graber 1963, Dyer et al. 1973). Also insufficient quantitative information is available on the extent and nature of renesting (i.e. nesting more than once in a nesting season) and on movements of adult females during the nesting season.A better understanding of these aspects of reproduction is critical for the development of an accurate population-dynamics model for the species. Such a model is sorely needed to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of proposed population management strategies in places where blackbirds are deemed a health or safety hazard, or cause damage to agricultural crops (Tosh et al. 1970, Solman 1971, Stone et al. 1972).This study had three objectives: (1) to determine the distribution, size, and number of Red-winged Blackbird territories for an old-field habitat; (2) to determine the number of nesting females, nesting success, extent of renesting, and number of young fledged for these territories; and (3) to examine movements of female Red-wings during the nesting season.

INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2007-01-01

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Adoption and Diffusion of Evidence-Based Addiction Medications in Substance Abuse Treatment

PubMed Central

Heinrich, Carolyn J; Cummings, Grant R

2014-01-01

ObjectiveTo examine the roles of facility-and state-level factors in treatment facilities’ adoption and diffusion of pharmaceutical agents used in addiction treatment. Data SourcesSecondary data from the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS), Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Alcohol Policy Information System, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Study DesignWe estimate ordered logit and multinomial logit models to examine the relationship of state and treatment facility characteristics to the adoption and diffusion of three pharmaceutical agents over 4 years when each was at a different stage of adoption or diffusion. Data CollectionN-SSATS data with facility codes, obtained directly from SAMHSA, were linked by state identifiers to the other publicly available, secondary data. Principal FindingsThe analysis confirms the importance of awareness and exposure to the adoption behavior of others, dissemination of information about the feasibility and effectiveness of innovations, geographical clustering, and licensing and accreditation in legitimizing facilities’ adoption and continued use of pharmacotherapies in addiction treatment. ConclusionsPolicy and administrative levers exist to increase the availability of pharmaceutical technologies and their continued use by substance abuse treatment facilities. PMID:23855719

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland-nesting birds.

PubMed

Fogarty, Dillon T; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Loss, Scott R

2017-08-01

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground-nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), and Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory-related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species' nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness-related benefits.

Consequences of least tern (Sternula antillarum) microhabitat nest-site selection on natural and mechanically constructed sandbars in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stucker, Jennifer H.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Sherfy, Mark H.

2013-01-01

Nest-habitat selection in colonial species has rarely been assessed at multiple spatial scales to evaluate its fitness consequences. Management for the federally endangered U.S. Interior population of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) has focused on maintenance of breeding habitats, including mechanical construction of sandbars from dredged material. Least Terns are attracted to large areas of unvegetated substrate, yet small-scale habitat features are thought to trigger selection for nesting. We evaluated nest-scale habitat selection to determine (1) whether selection differs between constructed and natural sandbars and (2) the subsequent consequences of habitat selection on nest success. During 2006–2008, we examined 869 Least Tern nest sites on constructed and natural sandbars in the Missouri River for evidence of microhabitat selection at the nest in relation to habitat within the surrounding 3-m area. Least Tern nest sites had coarser and larger substrate materials at the nest, more debris, and less vegetation than the surrounding area. Nests in constructed habitats had a greater percentage of coarse substrates and less vegetation or debris than nests in naturally created habitats. Apparent nest success was 1.8× greater on constructed than on natural sandbars. Nest success was best predicted by models with two spatial scales of predictors, including substrates (nest) and vegetation and debris (nest or surrounding area). Our results indicate that Least Terns select nest microhabitat characteristics that are associated with wind- and water-scoured habitats, and that nest success increases when these habitats are selected.

Network-based model of the growth of termite nests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Young-Ho; Perna, Andrea; Fortunato, Santo; Darrouzet, Eric; Theraulaz, Guy; Jost, Christian

2015-12-01

We present a model for the growth of the transportation network inside nests of the social insect subfamily Termitinae (Isoptera, termitidae). These nests consist of large chambers (nodes) connected by tunnels (edges). The model based on the empirical analysis of the real nest networks combined with pruning (edge removal, either random or weighted by betweenness centrality) and a memory effect (preferential growth from the latest added chambers) successfully predicts emergent nest properties (degree distribution, size of the largest connected component, average path lengths, backbone link ratios, and local graph redundancy). The two pruning alternatives can be associated with different genuses in the subfamily. A sensitivity analysis on the pruning and memory parameters indicates that Termitinae networks favor fast internal transportation over efficient defense strategies against ant predators. Our results provide an example of how complex network organization and efficient network properties can be generated from simple building rules based on local interactions and contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that come into play for the formation of termite networks and of biological transportation networks in general.

Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

PubMed

López-Uribe, Margarita M; Morreale, Stephen J; Santiago, Christine K; Danforth, Bryan N

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators.

Nest Suitability, Fine-Scale Population Structure and Male-Mediated Dispersal of a Solitary Ground Nesting Bee in an Urban Landscape

PubMed Central

López-Uribe, Margarita M.; Morreale, Stephen J.; Santiago, Christine K.; Danforth, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei’s GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing bee population abundance and connectivity in human dominated habitats and highlights the critical contribution of landscape genetic studies for enhanced conservation and management of native pollinators. PMID:25950429

Tests of landscape influence: Nest predation and brood parasitism in fragmented ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tewksbury, J.J.; Garner, L.; Garner, S.; Lloyd, J.D.; Saab, V.; Martin, T.E.

2006-01-01

The effects of landscape fragmentation on nest predation and brood parasitism, the two primary causes of avian reproductive failure, have been difficult to generalize across landscapes, yet few studies have clearly considered the context and spatial scale of fragmentation. Working in two river systems fragmented by agricultural and rural-housing development, we tracked nesting success and brood parasitism in >2500 bird nests in 38 patches of deciduous riparian woodland. Patches on both river systems were embedded in one of two local contexts (buffered from agriculture by coniferous forest, or adjacent to agriculture), but the abundance of agriculture and human habitation within 1 km of each patch was highly variable. We examined evidence for three models of landscape effects on nest predation based on (1) the relative importance of generalist agricultural nest predators, (2) predators associated with the natural habitats typically removed by agricultural development, or (3) an additive combination of these two predator communities. We found strong support for an additive predation model in which landscape features affect nest predation differently at different spatial scales. Riparian habitat with forest buffers had higher nest predation rates than sites adjacent to agriculture, but nest predation also increased with increasing agriculture in the larger landscape surrounding each site. These results suggest that predators living in remnant woodland buffers, as well as generalist nest predators associated with agriculture, affect nest predation rates, but they appear to respond at different spatial scales. Brood parasitism, in contrast, was unrelated to agricultural abundance on the landscape, but showed a strong nonlinear relationship with farm and house density, indicating a critical point at which increased human habitat causes increased brood parasitism. Accurate predictions regarding landscape effects on nest predation and brood parasitism will require an increased appreciation of the multiple scales at which landscape components influence predator and parasite behavior. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

potential importance of local-scale climate phenomena motivates development of approaches to enable computationally feasible nonhydrostatic climate simulations. To that end, we evaluate the potential viability of nested nonhydrostatic model approaches, using the summer climate of the western United States (WUSA) as a case study. We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to carry out five simulations of summer 2010. This suite allows us to test differences between nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic resolutions, single and multiple nesting approaches, and high- and low-resolution reanalysis boundary conditions. WRF simulations were evaluated against station observations, gridded observations, and reanalysis data over domains that cover the 11 WUSA states at nonhydrostatic grid spacing of 4 km and hydrostatic grid spacing of 25 km and 50 km. Results show that the nonhydrostatic simulations more accurately resolve the heterogeneity of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed features associated with the topography and orography of the WUSA region. In addition, we find that the simulation in which the nonhydrostatic grid is nested directly within the regional reanalysis exhibits the greatest overall agreement with observational data. Results therefore indicate that further development of nonhydrostatic nesting approaches is likely to yield important insights into the response of local-scale climate phenomena to increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the biases in regional precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture flux identified in a subset of the nonhydrostatic simulations suggest that alternative nonhydrostatic modeling approaches such as superparameterization and variable-resolution global nonhydrostatic modeling will provide important complements to the nested approaches tested here.

Item Banking Enables Stand-Alone Measurement of Driving Ability.

PubMed

Khadka, Jyoti; Fenwick, Eva K; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Pesudovs, Konrad

2016-12-01

To explore whether large item sets, as used in item banking, enable important latent traits, such as driving, to form stand-alone measures. The 88-item activity limitation (AL) domain of the glaucoma module of the Eye-tem Bank was interviewer-administered to patients with glaucoma. Rasch analysis was used to calibrate all items in AL domain on the same interval-level scale and test its psychometric properties. Based on Rasch dimensionality metrics, the AL scale was separated into subscales. These subscales underwent separate Rasch analyses to test whether they could form stand-alone measures. Independence of these measures was tested with Bland and Altman (B&A) Limit of Agreement (LOA). The AL scale was completed by 293 patients (median age, 71 years). It demonstrated excellent precision (3.12). However, Rasch analysis dimensionality metrics indicated that the domain arguably had other dimensions which were driving, luminance, and reading. Once separated, the remaining AL items, driving and luminance subscales, were unidimensional and had excellent precision of 4.25, 2.94, and 2.22, respectively. The reading subscale showed poor precision (1.66), so it was not examined further. The luminance subscale demonstrated excellent agreement (mean bias, 0.2 logit; 95% LOA, -2.2 to 3.3 logit); however, the driving subscale demonstrated poor agreement (mean bias, 1.1 logit; 95% LOA, -4.8 to 7.0 logit) with the AL scale. These findings indicate that driving items in the AL domain of the glaucoma module were perceived and responded to differently from the other AL items, but the reading and luminance items were not. Therefore, item banking enables stand-alone measurement of driving ability in glaucoma.

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, K.P.; DeStefano, S.

2011-01-01

The common loon (Gavia immer) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success (P = 0.595, R 2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007-2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Don't put all your eggs in one nest: spread them and cut time at risk.

PubMed

Andersson, Malte; Åhlund, Matti

2012-09-01

In many egg-laying animals, some females spread their clutch among several nests. The fitness effects of this reproductive tactic are obscure. Using mathematical modeling and field observations, we analyze an unexplored benefit of egg spreading in brood parasitic and other breeding systems: reduced time at risk for offspring. If a clutch takes many days to lay until incubation and embryo development starts after the last egg, by spreading her eggs a parasitic female can reduce offspring time in the vulnerable nest at risk of predation or other destruction. The model suggests that she can achieve much of this benefit by spreading her eggs among a few nests, even if her total clutch is large. Field data from goldeneye ducks Bucephala clangula show that egg spreading enables a fecund female to lay a clutch that is much larger than average without increasing offspring time at risk in a nest. This advantage increases with female condition (fecundity) and can markedly raise female reproductive success. These results help explain the puzzle of nesting parasites in some precocial birds, which lay eggs in the nests of other females before laying eggs in their own nest. Risk reduction by egg spreading may also play a role in the evolution of other breeding systems and taxa-for instance, polyandry with male parental care in some birds and fishes.

Ocean regional circulation model sensitizes to resolution of the lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan

2017-04-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models is an effective approach for forecasting operationally coastal weather and projecting long term climate on the ocean. Nesting procedures deliver the unwanted in dynamic downscaling due to the differences of numerical grid sizes and updating steps. Therefore, such unavoidable errors restrict the application of the Ocean Regional Circulation Model (ORCMs) in both short-term forecasts and long-term projections. The current work identifies the effects of errors induced by computational limitations during nesting procedures on the downscaled results of the ORCMs. The errors are quantitatively evaluated for each error source and its characteristics by the Big-Brother Experiments (BBE). The BBE separates identified errors from each other and quantitatively assess the amount of uncertainties employing the same model to simulate for both nesting and nested model. Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from two main matters associated with nesting procedures. They should be the spatial grids' differences and the temporal updating steps. After the diverse cases from separately running of the BBE, a Taylor diagram was adopted to analyze the results and suggest an optimization intern of grid size and updating period and domain sizes. Key words: lateral boundary condition, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

Nested Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baram, Yoram

1992-01-01

Report presents analysis of nested neural networks, consisting of interconnected subnetworks. Analysis based on simplified mathematical models more appropriate for artificial electronic neural networks, partly applicable to biological neural networks. Nested structure allows for retrieval of individual subpatterns. Requires fewer wires and connection devices than fully connected networks, and allows for local reconstruction of damaged subnetworks without rewiring entire network.

Spawning chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass during benign streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

We documented the nesting chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in an upstream (4th order) and downstream (5th order) reach of Baron Fork Creek, Oklahoma. Males started nesting in mid-Apr. when water temperatures increased to 16.9 C upstream, and in late-Apr. when temperatures increased to 16.2 C downstream. Streamflows were low (77% upstream to 82% downstream of mean Apr. streamflow, and 12 and 18% of meanjun. streamflow; 47 and 55 y of record), and decreased throughout the spawning period. Larger males nested first upstream, as has been observed in other populations, but not downstream. Upstream, progeny in 62 of 153 nests developed to swim-up stage. Downstream, progeny in 31 of 73 nests developed to swim-up. Nesting densities upstream (147/km) and downstream (100/km) were both higher than any densities previously reported. Males selected nest sites with intermediate water depths, low water velocity and near cover, behavior that is typical of smallmouth bass. Documented nest failures resulted from human disturbance, angling, and longear sunfish predation. Logistic exposure models showed that water velocity at the nest was negatively related and length of the guarding male was positively related to nest success upstream. Male length and number of degree days were both positively related to nest success downstream. Our results, and those of other studies, suggest that biological factors account for most nest failures during benign (stable, low flow) streamflow conditions, whereas nest failures attributed to substrate mobility or nest abandonment dominate when harsh streamflow conditions (spring floods) coincide with the spawning season.

Potential Influences of Climate and Nest Structure on Spotted Owl Reproductive Success: A Biophysical Approach

PubMed Central

Rockweit, Jeremy T.; Franklin, Alan B.; Bakken, George S.; Gutiérrez, R. J.

2012-01-01

Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (hc) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of hc in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (∼36°C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ∼26°C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season. PMID:22859993

Construction patterns of birds’ nests provide insight into nest-building behaviours

PubMed Central

Goodman, Adrian M.

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that birds and mammals select materials needed for nest building based on their thermal or structural properties, although the amounts or properties of the materials used have been recorded for only a very small number of species. Some of the behaviours underlying the construction of nests can be indirectly determined by careful deconstruction of the structure and measurement of the biomechanical properties of the materials used. Here we examined this idea in an investigation of Bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula) nests as a model for open-nesting songbird species that construct a “twig” nest, and tested the hypothesis that materials in different parts of nests serve different functions. The quantities of materials present in the nest base, sides and cup were recorded before structural analysis. Structural analysis showed that the base of the outer nests were composed of significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid materials compared to the side walls, which in turn were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials used in the cup. These results suggest that the placement of particular materials in nests may not be random, but further work is required to determine if the final structure of a nest accurately reflects the construction process. PMID:28265501

Absence of a moderating effect of parent health literacy on Early Head Start enrollment and dental use.

PubMed

Burgette, Jacqueline M; Preisser, John S; Weinberger, Morris; King, Rebecca S; Lee, Jessica Y; Rozier, R Gary

2018-04-16

To examine the moderating effect of parents' health literacy (HL) on the effectiveness of North Carolina Early Head Start (EHS) in improving children's dental use. Parents of 479 children enrolled in EHS and 699 Medicaid-matched parent-child dyads were interviewed at baseline when children were approximately 10 months old and 24 months later. We used in-person computer-assisted, structured interviews to collect information on sociodemographic characteristics, dental use, and administer the Short Assessment of Health Literacy - Spanish and English (SAHL-S&E). This quasi-experimental study tested whether the interaction effect between EHS and parents' HL was associated with dental use. Logit (any use) and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial count models (number of dental visits) included random effects to account for clustering and controlled for baseline dental use, dental need, survey language, and a propensity score covariate. Nineteen percent of parents in EHS had low literacy compared to 12 percent of parents in the non-EHS group (P < 0.01). The interaction term between EHS and parent's HL was not significant in the adjusted logit model (ratio of aORs 0.98, 95 percent CI: 0.43-2.20) or the adjusted count model (ratio of aRRs 0.88, 95 percent CI: 0.72-1.09). Parents in EHS had a higher prevalence of low HL compared to non-EHS parents. Parents' HL did not moderate the relationship between EHS and child dental use, suggesting that EHS results in similar improvements in dental use regardless of parent's HL levels. © 2018 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Effects of truck traffic on crash injury severity on rural highways in Wyoming using Bayesian binary logit models.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mohamed M; Franke, Rebecca; Ksaibati, Khaled; Shinstine, Debbie S

2018-08-01

Roadway safety is an integral part of a functioning infrastructure. A major use of the highway system is the transport of goods. The United States has experienced constant growth in the amount of freight transported by truck in the last few years. Wyoming is experiencing a large increase in truck traffic on its local and county roads due to an increase in oil and gas production. This study explores the involvement of heavy trucks in crashes and their significance as a predictor of crash severity and addresses the effect that large truck traffic is having on the safety of roadways for various road classifications. Studies have been done on the factors involved in and the causation of heavy truck crashes, but none address the causation and effect of roadway classifications on truck crashes. Binary Logit Models (BLM) with Bayesian inferences were utilized to classify heavy truck involvement in severe and non-severe crashes using ten years (2002-2011) of historical crash data in the State of Wyoming. From the final main effects model, various interactions proved to be significant in predicting the severity of crashes and varied depending on the roadway classification. The results indicated the odds of a severe crash increase to 2.3 and 4.5 times when a heavy truck is involved on state and interstate highways respectively. The severity of crashes is significantly increased when road conditions were not clear, icy, and during snowy weather conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating burden of informal caregivers in England, Finland and Greece: an analysis with the short form of the Burden Scale for Family Caregivers (BSFC-s).

PubMed

Konerding, Uwe; Bowen, Tom; Forte, Paul; Karampli, Eleftheria; Malmström, Tomi; Pavi, Elpida; Torkki, Paulus; Graessel, Elmar

2018-02-01

The burden of informal caregivers might show itself in different ways in different cultures. Understanding these differences is important for developing culture-specific measures aimed at alleviating caregiver burden. Hitherto, no findings regarding such cultural differences between different European countries were available. In this paper, differences between English, Finnish and Greek informal caregivers of people with dementia are investigated. A secondary analysis was performed with data from 36 English, 42 Finnish and 46 Greek caregivers obtained with the short form of the Burden Scale for Family Caregivers (BSFC-s). The probabilities of endorsing the BSFC-s items were investigated by computing a logit model with items and countries as categorical factors. Statistically significant deviation of data from this model was taken as evidence for country-specific response patterns. The two-factorial logit model explains the responses to the items quite well (McFadden's pseudo-R-square: 0.77). There are, however, also statistically significant deviations (p < 0.05). English caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing impairments in individual well-being; Finnish caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing the conflict between the demands resulting from care and demands resulting from the remaining social life and Greek caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing impairments in physical health. Caregiver burden shows itself differently in English, Finnish and Greek caregivers. Accordingly, measures for alleviating caregiver burden in these three countries should address different aspects of the caregivers' lives.

Comparison of Two Grid Refinement Approaches for High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling: MPAS vs WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.; Rauscher, S.; Ringler, T.

2012-12-01

This study compares two grid refinement approaches using global variable resolution model and nesting for high-resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context with a focus on the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical precipitation simulated by the models using the same physics package from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). For MPAS, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1 degree resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1 degree) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high-resolution simulations that serve as virtual reality. Both MPAS and WRF simulate 20-day Kelvin waves propagating through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution. In addition, both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. However, there are important differences between the anomalous patterns in MPAS and WRF due to differences in the grid refinement approaches and sensitivity of model physics to grid resolution. This study highlights the need for "scale aware" parameterizations in variable resolution and nested regional models.

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: a comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA (2002-2005).

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank J; Li, Qiang

2014-03-01

Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This article investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes versus premium brands. To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers' choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Using data from International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the USA. The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the USA during 2002-2005 and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands-which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax-may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes.

Technical manual for basic version of the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

User’s manual for basic version of MCnest Markov chain nest productivity model

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...

Field Margins, Foraging Distances and Their Impacts on Nesting Pollinator Success

PubMed Central

Rands, Sean A.; Whitney, Heather M.

2011-01-01

The areas of wild land around the edges of agricultural fields are a vital resource for many species. These include insect pollinators, to whom field margins provide both nest sites and important resources (especially when adjacent crops are not in flower). Nesting pollinators travel relatively short distances from the nest to forage: most species of bee are known to travel less than two kilometres away. In order to ensure that these pollinators have sufficient areas of wild land within reach of their nests, agricultural landscapes need to be designed to accommodate the limited travelling distances of nesting pollinators. We used a spatially-explicit modelling approach to consider whether increasing the width of wild strips of land within the agricultural landscape will enhance the amount of wild resources available to a nesting pollinator, and if it would impact differently on pollinators with differing foraging strategies. This was done both by creating field structures with a randomised geography, and by using landscape data based upon the British agricultural landscape. These models demonstrate that enhancing field margins should lead to an increase in the availability of forage to pollinators that nest within the landscape. With the exception of species that only forage within a very short range of their nest (less than 125 m), a given amount of field margin manipulation should enhance the proportion of land available to a pollinator for foraging regardless of the distance over which it normally travels to find food. A fixed amount of field edge manipulation should therefore be equally beneficial for both longer-distance nesting foragers such as honeybees, and short-distance foragers such as solitary bees. PMID:21991390

Lifespan Analyses of Forest Raptor Nests: Patterns of Creation, Persistence and Reuse

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.; Calvo, José F.

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts. PMID:24717935

Lifespan analyses of forest raptor nests: patterns of creation, persistence and reuse.

PubMed

Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2014-01-01

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts.

Three-level multilevel growth models for nested change data: a guide for group treatment researchers.

PubMed

Tasca, Giorgio A; Illing, Vanessa; Joyce, Anthony S; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2009-07-01

Researchers have known for years about the negative impact on Type I error rates caused by dependencies in hierarchically nested and longitudinal data. Despite this, group treatment researchers do not consistently use methods such as multilevel models (MLMs) to assess dependence and appropriately analyse their nested data. The goals of this study are to review some of the study design issues with regard to hierarchically nested and longitudinal data, discuss MLMs for assessing and handling dependence in data, and present a guide for developing a three-level growth MLM that is appropriate for group treatment data, design, and research questions. The authors present an example from group treatment research to illustrate these issues and methods.

The St. Catherine`s sea turtle conservation program: Modeling effective science education through conservation and research partnerships

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

March, N.B.; Bishop, G.

1994-12-31

Georgia school teachers served eight to ten day internships as research colleagues on St. Catherine`s island, Georgia. Interns monitored daily nesting activity, evaluated possible nests, validated egg chambers, screened the nests, and monitored each nest daily and assessed hatching success by excavation upon emergence of hatchlings. The real-world, hands-on holistic field experience immersed school teachers in the problems of executing a natural history conservation project integrating scientific content and methodology, mathematical analysis, and computer documentation. Outcomes included increased scientific inquiry, reduced science anxiety, heightened self-confidence, and enhanced credibility with students and colleagues. This educational model is applicable to many areasmore » and problems.« less

The Antsy Social Network: Determinants of Nest Structure and Arrangement in Asian Weaver Ants.

PubMed

Devarajan, Kadambari

2016-01-01

Asian weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) are arboreal ants that are known to form mutualistic complexes with their host trees. They are eusocial ants that build elaborate nests in the canopy in tropical areas. A colony comprises of multiple nests, usually on multiple trees, and the boundaries of the colony may be difficult to identify. However, they provide the ideal model for studying group living in invertebrates since there are a definite number of nests for a given substrate, the tree. Here, we briefly examine the structure of the nests and the processes involved in the construction and maintenance of these nests. We have described the spatial arrangement of weaver ant nests on trees in two distinct tropical clusters, a few hundred kilometres apart in India. Measurements were made for 13 trees with a total of 71 nests in the two field sites. We have considered a host of biotic and abiotic factors that may be crucial in determining the location of the nesting site by Asian weaver ants. Our results indicate that tree characteristics and architecture followed by leaf features help determine nest location in Asian weaver ants. While environmental factors may not be as influential to nest arrangement, they seem to be important determinants of nest structure. The parameters that may be considered in establishing the nests could be crucial in picking the evolutionary drivers for colonial living in social organisms.

Low Vision Rehabilitation for Adult African Americans in Two Settings.

PubMed

Draper, Erin M; Feng, Rui; Appel, Sarah D; Graboyes, Marcy; Engle, Erin; Ciner, Elise B; Ellenberg, Jonas H; Stambolian, Dwight

2016-07-01

The Vision Rehabilitation for African Americans with Central Vision Impairment (VISRAC) study is a demonstration project evaluating how modifications in vision rehabilitation can improve the use of functional vision. Fifty-five African Americans 40 years of age and older with central vision impairment were randomly assigned to receive either clinic-based (CB) or home-based (HB) low vision rehabilitation services. Forty-eight subjects completed the study. The primary outcome was the change in functional vision in activities of daily living, as assessed with the Veteran's Administration Low-Vision Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ-48). This included scores for overall visual ability and visual ability domains (reading, mobility, visual information processing, and visual motor skills). Each score was normalized into logit estimates by Rasch analysis. Linear regression models were used to compare the difference in the total score and each domain score between the two intervention groups. The significance level for each comparison was set at 0.05. Both CB and HB groups showed significant improvement in overall visual ability at the final visit compared with baseline. The CB group showed greater improvement than the HB group (mean of 1.28 vs. 0.87 logits change), though the group difference is not significant (p = 0.057). The CB group visual motor skills score showed significant improvement over the HB group score (mean of 3.30 vs. 1.34 logits change, p = 0.044). The differences in improvement of the reading and visual information processing scores were not significant (p = 0.054 and p = 0.509) between groups. Neither group had significant improvement in the mobility score, which was not part of the rehabilitation program. Vision rehabilitation is effective for this study population regardless of location. Possible reasons why the CB group performed better than the HB group include a number of psychosocial factors as well as the more standardized distraction-free work environment within the clinic setting.

Reading Ability and Reading Engagement in Older Adults With Glaucoma

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Angeline M.; van Landingham, Suzanne W.; Massof, Robert W.; Rubin, Gary S.; Ramulu, Pradeep Y.

2014-01-01

Purpose. We evaluated the impact of glaucoma-related vision loss on reading ability and reading engagement in 10 reading activities. Methods. A total of 63 glaucoma patients and 59 glaucoma suspect controls self-rated their level of reading difficulty for 10 reading items, and responses were analyzed using Rasch analysis to determine reading ability. Reading engagement was assessed by asking subjects to report the number of days per week they engaged in each reading activity. Reading restriction was determined as a decrement in engagement. Results. Glaucoma subjects more often described greater reading difficulty than controls for all tasks except puzzles (P < 0.05). The most difficult reading tasks involved puzzles, books, and finances, while the least difficult reading tasks involved notes, bills, and mail. In multivariable weighted least squares regression models of Rasch-estimated person measures of reading ability, less reading ability was found for glaucoma patients compared to controls (β = −1.60 logits, P < 0.001). Among glaucoma patients, less reading ability was associated with more severe visual field (VF) loss (β = −0.68 logits per 5-dB decrement in better-eye VF mean deviation [MD], P < 0.001) and contrast sensitivity (β = −0.76 logits per 0.1-unit lower log CS, P < 0.001). Each 5-dB decrement in the better-eye VF MD was associated with book reading on 18% fewer days (P = 0.003) and newspaper reading on 10% fewer days (P = 0.008). No statistically significant reading restriction was observed for other reading activities (P > 0.05). Conclusions. Glaucoma patients have less reading ability and engage less in a variety of different reading activities, particularly those requiring sustained reading. Future work should evaluate the mechanisms underlying reading disability in glaucoma to determine how patients can maintain reading ability and engagement. PMID:25052992

Health care seeking patterns and determinants of out-of-pocket expenditure for Malaria for the children under-five in Uganda

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The objectives of this study were to assess the patterns of treatment seeking behaviour for children under five with malaria; and to examine the statistical relationship between out-of-pocket expenditure (OOP) on malaria treatment for under-fives and source of treatment, place of residence, education and wealth characteristics of Uganda households. OOP expenditure on health care is now a development concern due to its negative effect on households’ ability to finance consumption of other basic needs. Methods The 2009 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey was the source of data on treatment seeking behaviour for under-five children with malaria, and patterns and levels of OOP expenditure for malaria treatment. Binomial logit and Log-lin regression models were estimated. In logit model the dependent variable was a dummy (1=incurred some OOP, 0=none incurred) and independent variables were wealth quintiles, rural versus urban, place of treatment, education level, sub-region, and normal duty disruption. The dependent variable in Log-lin model was natural logarithm of OOP and the independent variables were the same as mentioned above. Results Five key descriptive analysis findings emerge. First, malaria is quite prevalent at 44.7% among children below the age of five. Second, a significant proportion seeks treatment (81.8%). Third, private providers are the preferred option for the under-fives for the treatment of malaria. Fourth, the majority pay about 70.9% for either consultation, medicines, transport or hospitalization but the biggest percent of those who pay, do so for medicines (54.0%). Fifth, hospitalization is the most expensive at an average expenditure of US$7.6 per child, even though only 2.9% of those that seek treatment are hospitalized. The binomial logit model slope coefficients for the variables richest wealth quintile, Private facility as first source of treatment, and sub-regions Central 2, East central, Mid-eastern, Mid-western, and Normal duties disrupted were positive and statistically significant at 99% level of confidence. On the other hand, the Log-lin model slope coefficients for Traditional healer, Sought treatment from one source, Primary educational level, North East, Mid Northern and West Nile variables had a negative sign and were statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. Conclusion The fact that OOP expenditure is still prevalent and private provider is the preferred choice, increasing public provision may not be the sole answer. Plans to improve malaria treatment should explicitly incorporate efforts to protect households from high OOP expenditures. This calls for provision of subsidies to enable the private sector to reduce prices, regulation of prices of malaria medicines, and reduction/removal of import duties on such medicines. PMID:23721217

Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes

PubMed Central

Lonsdorf, Eric; Kremen, Claire; Ricketts, Taylor; Winfree, Rachael; Williams, Neal; Greenleaf, Sarah

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Crop pollination by bees and other animals is an essential ecosystem service. Ensuring the maintenance of the service requires a full understanding of the contributions of landscape elements to pollinator populations and crop pollination. Here, the first quantitative model that predicts pollinator abundance on a landscape is described and tested. Methods Using information on pollinator nesting resources, floral resources and foraging distances, the model predicts the relative abundance of pollinators within nesting habitats. From these nesting areas, it then predicts relative abundances of pollinators on the farms requiring pollination services. Model outputs are compared with data from coffee in Costa Rica, watermelon and sunflower in California and watermelon in New Jersey–Pennsylvania (NJPA). Key Results Results from Costa Rica and California, comparing field estimates of pollinator abundance, richness or services with model estimates, are encouraging, explaining up to 80 % of variance among farms. However, the model did not predict observed pollinator abundances on NJPA, so continued model improvement and testing are necessary. The inability of the model to predict pollinator abundances in the NJPA landscape may be due to not accounting for fine-scale floral and nesting resources within the landscapes surrounding farms, rather than the logic of our model. Conclusions The importance of fine-scale resources for pollinator service delivery was supported by sensitivity analyses indicating that the model's predictions depend largely on estimates of nesting and floral resources within crops. Despite the need for more research at the finer-scale, the approach fills an important gap by providing quantitative and mechanistic model from which to evaluate policy decisions and develop land-use plans that promote pollination conservation and service delivery. PMID:19324897

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Pagowski, M.; Leavesley, G.H.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Factors affecting nest survival of Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) in southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Robb, Joseph R.; Lewis, Jason P.; Vanosdol, Teresa; Walker, Benjamin A.; Williams, Perry J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2016-01-01

Populations of Henslow’s Sparrows have declined dramatically in recent decades, coinciding with widespread loss of native grassland habitat. Prescribed burning is a primary tool for maintaining grassland patches, but its effects on nest survival of Henslow’s Sparrows remains largely unknown, especially in conjunction with other factors. We monitored 135 nests of Henslow’s Sparrows at Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge in southern Indiana from 1998–2001 in an effort to understand factors influencing nest survival, including prescribed burning of habitat. We used a mixed-effects implementation of the logistic exposure model to predict daily nest survival in an information theoretic framework. We found that daily survival declined near the onset of hatching and increased with the height of standing dead vegetation, although this relationship was weak. We found only nominal support to suggest that time since burn influenced nest survival. Overall, nest age was the most important factor in estimating daily nest survival rates. Our daily survival estimate from our marginal model (0.937) was similar to that derived from the Mayfield method (0.944) suggesting that our results are comparable to previous studies using the Mayfield approach. Our results indicate that frequent burning to limit woody encroachment into grassland habitats might benefit Henslow’s Sparrow, but that a variety of factors ultimately influence daily nest survival. However, we note that burning too frequently can also limit occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrows. We suggest that additional research is needed to determine the population-level consequences of habitat alteration and if other extrinsic factors influence demographics of Henslow’s Sparrows.

User's Manual MCnest - Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model Version 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, is a set of algorithms for integrating the results of avian toxicity tests with reproductive life-history data to project the relative magnitude of chemical effects on avian reproduction. The mathematical foundation of MCnest i...

Estimates of vital rates for a declining loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) subpopulation: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamont, Margaret M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Carthy, Raymond R.

2014-01-01

Because subpopulations can differ geographically, genetically and/or phenotypically, using data from one subpopulation to derive vital rates for another, while often unavoidable, is not optimal. We used a two-state open robust design model to analyze a 14-year dataset (1998–2011) from the St. Joseph Peninsula, Florida (USA; 29.748°, −85.400°) which is the densest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beach in the Northern Gulf of Mexico subpopulation. For these analyses, 433 individuals were marked of which only 7.2 % were observed re-nesting in the study area in subsequent years during the study period. Survival was estimated at 0.86 and is among the highest estimates for all subpopulations in the Northwest Atlantic population. The robust model estimated a nesting assemblage size that ranged from 32 to 230 individuals each year with an annual average of 110. The model estimates indicated an overall population decline of 17 %. The results presented here for this nesting group represent the first estimates for this subpopulation. These data provide managers with information specific to this subpopulation that can be used to develop recovery plans and conduct subpopulation-specific modeling exercises explicit to the challenges faced by turtles nesting in this region.

A Methodological Review of Statistical Methods for Handling Multilevel Non-Nested Longitudinal Data in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sun, Shuyan; Pan, Wei

2014-01-01

As applications of multilevel modelling in educational research increase, researchers realize that multilevel data collected in many educational settings are often not purely nested. The most common multilevel non-nested data structure is one that involves student mobility in longitudinal studies. This article provides a methodological review of…

Complete excavation and mapping of a Texas leafcutting ant nest

Treesearch

John C. Moser

2006-01-01

A medium-sized nest of the Texas leafcutting ant, Atta texana (Buckley), in northern Louisiana was excavated completely, and a three-dimensional model of its external and subterranean features was constructed. In total, 97 fungus gardens, 27 dormancy cavities, and 45 detritus cavities were located. At the lower center of the funnel-shaped nest was a...

Nesting fidelity and molecular evidence for natal homing in the freshwater turtle, Graptemys kohnii

PubMed Central

Freedberg, Steven; Ewert, Michael A; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Neiman, Maurine; Nelson, Craig E

2005-01-01

Numerous studies of sea turtle nesting ecology have revealed that females exhibit natal homing, whereby they imprint on the nesting area from which they hatch and subsequently return there to nest as adults. Because freshwater turtles comprise the majority of reptiles known to display environmental sex determination (ESD), the study of natal homing in this group may shed light on recent evolutionary models of sex allocation that are predicated on natal homing in reptiles with ESD. We examined natal homing in Graptemys kohnii, a freshwater turtle with ESD, using mitochondrial sequencing, microsatellite genotyping and mark and recapture of 290 nesting females. Females showed high fidelity to nesting areas, even after being transplanted several kilometres away. A Mantel test revealed significant genetic isolation by distance with respect to nesting locations (r=0.147; p<0.05), suggesting that related females nest in close proximity to one another. The patterns of fidelity and genotype distributions are consistent with homing at a scale that may affect population sex ratios. PMID:16006324

Structural and Practical Identifiability Issues of Immuno-Epidemiological Vector-Host Models with Application to Rift Valley Fever.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Martcheva, Maia

2016-09-01

In this article, we discuss the structural and practical identifiability of a nested immuno-epidemiological model of arbovirus diseases, where host-vector transmission rate, host recovery, and disease-induced death rates are governed by the within-host immune system. We incorporate the newest ideas and the most up-to-date features of numerical methods to fit multi-scale models to multi-scale data. For an immunological model, we use Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) time-series data obtained from livestock under laboratory experiments, and for an epidemiological model we incorporate a human compartment to the nested model and use the number of human RVFV cases reported by the CDC during the 2006-2007 Kenya outbreak. We show that the immunological model is not structurally identifiable for the measurements of time-series viremia concentrations in the host. Thus, we study the non-dimensionalized and scaled versions of the immunological model and prove that both are structurally globally identifiable. After fixing estimated parameter values for the immunological model derived from the scaled model, we develop a numerical method to fit observable RVFV epidemiological data to the nested model for the remaining parameter values of the multi-scale system. For the given (CDC) data set, Monte Carlo simulations indicate that only three parameters of the epidemiological model are practically identifiable when the immune model parameters are fixed. Alternatively, we fit the multi-scale data to the multi-scale model simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulations for the simultaneous fitting suggest that the parameters of the immunological model and the parameters of the immuno-epidemiological model are practically identifiable. We suggest that analytic approaches for studying the structural identifiability of nested models are a necessity, so that identifiable parameter combinations can be derived to reparameterize the nested model to obtain an identifiable one. This is a crucial step in developing multi-scale models which explain multi-scale data.

An agent-based model for queue formation of powered two-wheelers in heterogeneous traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tzu-Chang; Wong, K. I.

2016-11-01

This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the queue formation of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) in heterogeneous traffic at a signalized intersection. The main novelty is that the proposed interaction rule describing the position choice behavior of PTWs when queuing in heterogeneous traffic can capture the stochastic nature of the decision making process. The interaction rule is formulated as a multinomial logit model, which is calibrated by using a microscopic traffic trajectory dataset obtained from video footage. The ABM is validated against the survey data for the vehicular trajectory patterns, queuing patterns, queue lengths, and discharge rates. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of replicating the observed queue formation process for heterogeneous traffic.

Role of degeneracy, hybridization, and nesting in the properties of multiorbital systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nicholson, Andrew D; Liu, Jia-Ming; Ge, Weihao

2011-01-01

To understand the role that degeneracy, hybridization, and nesting play in the magnetic and pairing properties of multiorbital Hubbard models we here study numerically two types of two-orbital models, both with holelike and electron-like Fermi surfaces (FS s) that are related by nesting vectors ( ,0) and (0, ). In one case the bands that determine the FS s arise from strongly hybridized degenerate dxz and dyz orbitals, while in the other the two bands are determined by nondegenerate and nonhybridized s-like orbitals. Using a variety of techniques, in the weak-coupling regime it is shown that only the model withmore » hybridized bands develops metallic magnetic order, while the other model exhibits an ordered excitonic orbital-transverse spin state that is insulating and does not have a local magnetization. However, both models display similar insulating magnetic stripe ordering in the strong-coupling limit. These results indicate that nesting is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of ordered states with finite local magnetization in multiorbital Hubbard systems; the additional ingredient appears to be that the nested portions of the bands need to have the same orbital flavor. This condition can be achieved via strong hybridization of the orbitals in weak coupling or via the FS reconstruction induced by the Coulomb interactions in the strong-coupling regime. This effect also affects the pairing symmetry as demonstrated by the study of the dominant pairing channels for the two models.« less

Nested Structural Equation Models: Noncentrality and Power of Restriction Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

1998-01-01

Discusses the difference in noncentrality parameters of nested structural equation models and their utility in evaluating statistical power associated with the pertinent restriction test. Asymptotic confidence intervals for that difference are presented. These intervals represent a useful adjunct to goodness-of-fit indexes in assessing constraints…

Avian life history profiles for use in the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, quantitatively estimates the effects of pesticides or other toxic chemicals on annual reproductive success of avian species (Bennett and Etterson 2013, Etterson and Bennett 2013). The Basic Version of MCnest was developed as a...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration consists of the following components: - The NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) version of the Non updates for the 12 km parent domain and the 3 km CONUS/Alaska nests. The non-cycled nests (Hawaii, Puerto

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

PubMed Central

Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Margalida, Antoni; Arredondo, Ángel; Guil, Francisco

2012-01-01

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context. PMID:22413023

Effects of spatial disturbance on common loon nest site selection and territory success

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Kyle P.; DeStefano, Stephen

2011-01-01

The common loon (Gavia immer) breeds during the summer on northern lakes and water bodies that are also often desirable areas for aquatic recreation and human habitation. In northern New England, we assessed how the spatial nature of disturbance affects common loon nest site selection and territory success. We found through classification and regression analysis that distance to and density of disturbance factors can be used to classify observed nest site locations versus random points, suggesting that these factors affect loon nest site selection (model 1: Correct classification = 75%, null = 50%, K = 0.507, P < 0.001; model 2: Correct classification = 78%, null = 50%, K = 0.551, P < 0.001). However, in an exploratory analysis, we were unable to show a relation between spatial disturbance variables and breeding success (P = 0.595, R2 = 0.436), possibly because breeding success was so low during the breeding seasons of 2007–2008. We suggest that by selecting nest site locations that avoid disturbance factors, loons thereby limit the effect that disturbance will have on their breeding success. Still, disturbance may force loons to use sub-optimal nesting habitat, limiting the available number of territories, and overall productivity. We advise that management efforts focus on limiting disturbance factors to allow breeding pairs access to the best nesting territories, relieving disturbance pressures that may force sub-optimal nest placement.

Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

2018-04-01

Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

Utilization of infertility services: how much does money matter?

PubMed

Farley Ordovensky Staniec, J; Webb, Natalie J

2007-06-01

To estimate the effects of financial access and other individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment and the choice of treatment type. The 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We use a binomial logit model to estimate the effects of financial access and individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the differential effects of these variables across treatment types. This study analyzes the subset of 1,210 women who meet the definition of infertile or subfecund from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that income, insurance coverage, age, and parity (number of previous births) all significantly affect the probability of seeking infertility treatment; however, the effect of these variables on choice of treatment type varies significantly. Neither income nor insurance influences the probability of seeking advice, a relatively low cost, low yield treatment. At the other end of the spectrum, the choice to pursue assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs)-a much more expensive but potentially more productive option-is highly influenced by income, but merely having private insurance has no significant effect. In the middle of the spectrum are treatment options such as testing, surgery, and medications, for which "financial access" increases their probability of selection. Our results illustrate that for the sample of infertile of subfecund women of childbearing age studied, and considering their options, financial access to infertility treatment does matter.

Treatment preferences of originator versus biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Lovász, Barbara D; Golovics, Petra A; Brodszky, Valentin; Péntek, Márta; Rencz, Fanni; Lakatos, Péter L

2016-01-01

To explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease. Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator), 2) severity of disease, 3) availability of continuous medicine supply, 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator, 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only, 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Men, senior consultants, working in inflammatory bowel disease center and treating more patients were more likely willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in case of biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% versus 11% for new patients, and 44% versus 56% for patients already treated with biological. For gastroenterologist, the continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

Nesting behaviour influences species-specific gas exchange across avian eggshells.

PubMed

Portugal, Steven J; Maurer, Golo; Thomas, Gavin H; Hauber, Mark E; Grim, Tomáš; Cassey, Phillip

2014-09-15

Carefully controlled gas exchange across the eggshell is essential for the development of the avian embryo. Water vapour conductance (G(H2O)) across the shell, typically measured as mass loss during incubation, has been demonstrated to optimally ensure the healthy development of the embryo while avoiding desiccation. Accordingly, eggs exposed to sub-optimal gas exchange have reduced hatching success. We tested the association between eggshell G(H2O) and putative life-history correlates of adult birds, ecological nest parameters and physical characteristics of the egg itself to investigate how variation in G(H2O) has evolved to maintain optimal water loss across a diverse set of nest environments. We measured gas exchange through eggshell fragments in 151 British breeding bird species and fitted phylogenetically controlled, general linear models to test the relationship between G(H2O) and potential predictor parameters of each species. Of our 17 life-history traits, only two were retained in the final model: wet-incubating parent and nest type. Eggs of species where the parent habitually returned to the nest with wet plumage had significantly higher G(H2O) than those of parents that returned to the nest with dry plumage. Eggs of species nesting in ground burrows, cliffs and arboreal cups had significantly higher G(H2O) than those of species nesting on the ground in open nests or cups, in tree cavities and in shallow arboreal nests. Phylogenetic signal (measured as Pagel's λ) was intermediate in magnitude, suggesting that differences observed in the G(H2O) are dependent upon a combination of shared ancestry and species-specific life history and ecological traits. Although these data are correlational by nature, they are consistent with the hypothesis that parents constrained to return to the nest with wet plumage will increase the humidity of the nest environment, and the eggs of these species have evolved a higher G(H2O) to overcome this constraint and still achieve optimal water loss during incubation. We also suggest that eggs laid in cup nests and burrows may require a higher G(H2O) to overcome the increased humidity as a result from the confined nest microclimate lacking air movements through the nest. Taken together, these comparative data imply that species-specific levels of gas exchange across avian eggshells are variable and evolve in response to ecological and physical variation resulting from parental and nesting behaviours. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Use of collateral information to improve LANDSAT classification accuracies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahler, A. H. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Methods to improve LANDSAT classification accuracies were investigated including: (1) the use of prior probabilities in maximum likelihood classification as a methodology to integrate discrete collateral data with continuously measured image density variables; (2) the use of the logit classifier as an alternative to multivariate normal classification that permits mixing both continuous and categorical variables in a single model and fits empirical distributions of observations more closely than the multivariate normal density function; and (3) the use of collateral data in a geographic information system as exercised to model a desired output information layer as a function of input layers of raster format collateral and image data base layers.

Nesting ecology of Whimbrels in boreal Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwood, Christopher M.; Gill, Robert E.; Powell, Abby

2016-01-01

Breeding ecology studies of boreal waders have been relatively scarce in North America. This paucity is due in part to boreal habitats being difficult to access, and boreal waders being widely dispersed and thus difficult to monitor. Between 2008 and 2014 we studied the nesting ecology of Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus hudsonicus in interior Alaska, a region characterized by an active wildfire regime. Our objectives were to (1) describe the nesting ecology of Whimbrels in tundra patches within the boreal forest, (2) assess the influence of habitat features at multiple scales on nest-site selection, and (3) characterize factors affecting nest survival. Whimbrels nested in the largest patches and exhibited a consistently compressed annual breeding schedule. We hypothesized that these Whimbrels would exhibit synchronous and clustered nesting, but observed synchronous nesting in only 2009 and 2011, and evidence of clustered nesting at just one study area in 2009, providing limited support for the hypothesis. Nests tended to be on hummocks and exhibited lateral concealment around the bowl, suggesting a trade-off between a greater view from the nest and concealment. However, our analysis failed to identify other important habitat features at scales from 1–400 m from the nest. Our best-supported nest survival model showed a strong difference between our two main study areas, but this difference remains largely unexplained. Given the increased frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires predicted under climate change scenarios, our study highlights the importance of monitoring the persistence of boreal tundra patches and the Whimbrels breeding therein.

Avian nest success in midwestern forests fragmented by agriculture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Newton, W.E.; Friberg, M.A.

2004-01-01

We studied how forest-bird nest success varied by landscape context from 1996 to 1998 in an agricultural region of southeastern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa. Nest success was 48% for all nests, 82% for cavity-nesting species, and 42% for cup-nesting species. Mayfield-adjusted nest success for five common species ranged from 23% for the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) to 43% for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens). Nest success was lowest for open-cup nesters, species that reject Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) eggs, species that nest near forest edges, and Neo-tropical migrants. The proportion of forest core area in a 5-km radius around the plot had a weakly negative relationship with daily survival rate of nests for all species pooled and for medium or high canopy nesters, species associated with interior and edge habitats, open-cup nesters, and nests located between 75 and 199 m from an edge. The proportion of forest core area was positively related to daily survival rate only for ground and low nesters. Our findings are in contrast to a number of studies from the eastern United States reporting strong positive associations between forest area and nesting success. Supported models of habitat associations changed with the spatial scale of analysis and included variables not often considered in studies of forest birds, including the proportion of water, shrubs, and grasslands in the landscape. Forest area may not be a strong indicator of nest success in landscapes where all the available forests are fragmented.

Selection of fire-created snags at two spatial scales by cavity-nesting birds

Treesearch

Victoria A. Saab; Ree Brannon; Jonathan Dudley; Larry Donohoo; Dave Vanderzanden; Vicky Johnson; Henry Lachowski

2002-01-01

We examined the use of snag stands by seven species of cavity-nesting birds from 1994-1998. Selection of snags was studied in logged and unlogged burned forests at two spatial scales: microhabitat (local vegetation characteristics) and landscape (composition and patterning of surrounding vegetation types). We modeled nest occurrence at the landscape scale by using...

A multiscale analysis of nest predation on Least Bell's Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kus, Barbara E.; Peterson, Bonnie L.; Deutschman, Douglas H.

2008-01-01

We examined variables influencing nest predation on the endangered Least Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii pusillus) at three spatial scales to determine what nest-site, habitat, or landscape characteristics affect the likelihood of nest predation and to determine the spatial distribution of predation risk and the variables influencing it. We used MARK to calculate daily survival rates of Least Bell's Vireo nests and applied an information-theoretic approach to evaluate support for logistic regression models of the effect of habitat variables on predation risk. Analysis of data for 195 nests collected during 1999 and 2000 at the San Luis Rey River and Pilgrim Creek in southern California revealed no effect of fine-scale factors, including nest height, supporting plant species, and three measures of nest concealment, on the likelihood of predation. At the intermediate scale, distances to the riparian-habitat edge and to internal gaps in the canopy were unrelated to nest survival. Surrounding land-use type was a poor predictor of predation risk, with the exception of proximity to golf course–park habitat and wetland. Nests within 400 m of golf course–park were only 20% as likely to avoid predation as nests >400 m from this habitat, and nests near wetland were more than twice as likely to survive as nests distant from wetland. Spatially, predation appeared to be random throughout the site, with localized clustering evident in the vicinity of golf course–park and wetland. Our results suggest that the landscape may be the most appropriate scale at which to manage nest predation in this system.

Sharp-Tailed Grouse Nest Survival and Nest Predator Habitat Use in North Dakota's Bakken Oil Field.

PubMed

Burr, Paul C; Robinson, Aaron C; Larsen, Randy T; Newman, Robert A; Ellis-Felege, Susan N

2017-01-01

Recent advancements in extraction technologies have resulted in rapid increases of gas and oil development across the United States and specifically in western North Dakota. This expansion of energy development has unknown influences on local wildlife populations and the ecological interactions within and among species. Our objectives for this study were to evaluate nest success and nest predator dynamics of sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) in two study sites that represented areas of high and low energy development intensities in North Dakota. During the summers of 2012 and 2013, we monitored 163 grouse nests using radio telemetry. Of these, 90 nests also were monitored using miniature cameras to accurately determine nest fates and identify nest predators. We simultaneously conducted predator surveys using camera scent stations and occupancy modeling to estimate nest predator occurrence at each site. American badgers (Taxidea taxus) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) were the primary nest predators, accounting for 56.7% of all video recorded nest depredations. Nests in our high intensity gas and oil area were 1.95 times more likely to succeed compared to our minimal intensity area. Camera monitored nests were 2.03 times more likely to succeed than non-camera monitored nests. Occupancy of mammalian nest predators was 6.9 times more likely in our study area of minimal gas and oil intensity compared to the high intensity area. Although only a correlative study, our results suggest energy development may alter the predator community, thereby increasing nest success for sharp-tailed grouse in areas of intense development, while adjacent areas may have increased predator occurrence and reduced nest success. Our study illustrates the potential influences of energy development on the nest predator-prey dynamics of sharp-tailed grouse in western North Dakota and the complexity of evaluating such impacts on wildlife.

A multiclass vehicular dynamic traffic flow model for main roads and dedicated lanes/roads of multimodal transport network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sossoe, K.S., E-mail: kwami.sossoe@irt-systemx.fr; Lebacque, J-P., E-mail: jean-patrick.lebacque@ifsttar.fr

2015-03-10

We present in this paper a model of vehicular traffic flow for a multimodal transportation road network. We introduce the notion of class of vehicles to refer to vehicles of different transport modes. Our model describes the traffic on highways (which may contain several lanes) and network transit for pubic transportation. The model is drafted with Eulerian and Lagrangian coordinates and uses a Logit model to describe the traffic assignment of our multiclass vehicular flow description on shared roads. The paper also discusses traffic streams on dedicated lanes for specific class of vehicles with event-based traffic laws. An Euler-Lagrangian-remap schememore » is introduced to numerically approximate the model’s flow equations.« less

Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

PubMed

Shave, Megan E; Lindell, Catherine A

2017-01-01

Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius), in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

On the potential of models for location and scale for genome-wide DNA methylation data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background With the help of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS), increasing knowledge on the role of epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation in disease processes is obtained. In addition, EWAS aid the understanding of behavioral and environmental effects on DNA methylation. In terms of statistical analysis, specific challenges arise from the characteristics of methylation data. First, methylation β-values represent proportions with skewed and heteroscedastic distributions. Thus, traditional modeling strategies assuming a normally distributed response might not be appropriate. Second, recent evidence suggests that not only mean differences but also variability in site-specific DNA methylation associates with diseases, including cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare different modeling strategies for methylation data in terms of model performance and performance of downstream hypothesis tests. Specifically, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to compare beta regression with Gaussian regression on raw, binary logit and arcsine square root transformed methylation data, with and without modeling a covariate effect on the scale parameter. Results Using simulated and real data from a large population-based study and an independent sample of cancer patients and healthy controls, we show that beta regression does not outperform competing strategies in terms of model performance. In addition, Gaussian models for location and scale showed an improved performance as compared to models for location only. The best performance was observed for the Gaussian model on binary logit transformed β-values, referred to as M-values. Our results further suggest that models for location and scale are specifically sensitive towards violations of the distribution assumption and towards outliers in the methylation data. Therefore, a resampling procedure is proposed as a mode of inference and shown to diminish type I error rate in practically relevant settings. We apply the proposed method in an EWAS of BMI and age and reveal strong associations of age with methylation variability that are validated in an independent sample. Conclusions Models for location and scale are promising tools for EWAS that may help to understand the influence of environmental factors and disease-related phenotypes on methylation variability and its role during disease development. PMID:24994026

Percolation in insect nest networks: Evidence for optimal wiring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valverde, Sergi; Corominas-Murtra, Bernat; Perna, Andrea; Kuntz, Pascale; Theraulaz, Guy; Solé, Ricard V.

2009-06-01

Optimization has been shown to be a driving force for the evolution of some biological structures, such as neural maps in the brain or transport networks. Here we show that insect networks also display characteristic traits of optimality. By using a graph representation of the chamber organization of termite nests and a disordered lattice model, it is found that these spatial nests are close to a percolation threshold. This suggests that termites build efficient systems of galleries spanning most of the nest volume at low cost. The evolutionary consequences are outlined.

Nesting habitat use by river chubs in a hydrologically variable Appalachian tailwater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peoples, Brandon K.; McManamay, Ryan A.; Orth, Donald J.

2013-07-02

Hydrologic alteration continues to affect aquatic biodiversity asknowledge of the spawning requirements of fishes, especially keystone or foundation species, becomes more critical for conservation and management. Our objectives are to quantify the spawning micro- and mesohabitat use of river chub Nocomis micropogon, a gravel mound nesting minnow, in a hydrologically regulated river in North Carolina, USA. At the microhabitat scale, substrate sizes on nests were compared with pebble counts in 1-m2 adjacent quadrats. Average depths and current velocities at nests were compared with measurements from paired transects. At the mesohabitat scale, generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to identifymore » the importance of average bed slope, average depth and percentages of rock outcrops (a measure of flow heterogeneity and velocity shelters) for predicting nest presence and abundance. To relate nesting activities to hydrologic alteration from dam operation, nest dimensions were measured before and after a scheduled discharge event approximately six times that of base flow. In addition, linear regression was used to predict changes in the use of flow refugia and overhead cover with increased fluvial distance from the dam. Microhabitats in which nests were placed had, on average, slower current velocities and shallower depths. Gravel diameters of nests were significantly smaller than substrate particles adjacent to nests. GLMMs revealed that mesohabitats with nests were shallower, had more moderate slopes and greater proportions of rock outcrops than mesohabitats without nests. Finally, the scheduled discharge event significantly flattened nests. Near the dam, nests were built in close proximity ( 2 m) to velocity shelters; this relationship diminished with distance from the dam. River chubs are spawning habitat specialists. Because multiple species rely on river chub nests for reproduction and food, the needs of this species should be considered when managing instream flows.« less

Multilevel and Single-Level Models for Measured and Latent Variables When Data Are Clustered

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stapleton, Laura M.; McNeish, Daniel M.; Yang, Ji Seung

2016-01-01

Multilevel models are often used to evaluate hypotheses about relations among constructs when data are nested within clusters (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002), although alternative approaches are available when analyzing nested data (Binder & Roberts, 2003; Sterba, 2009). The overarching goal of this article is to suggest when it is appropriate…

Nest temperatures in a loggerhead nesting beach in Turkey is more determined by sea surface than air temperature.

PubMed

Girondot, Marc; Kaska, Yakup

2015-01-01

While climate change is now fully recognised as a reality, its impact on biodiversity is still not completely understood. To predict its impact, proxies coherent with the studied ecosystem or species are thus required. Marine turtles are threatened worldwide (though some populations are recovering) as they are particularly sensitive to temperature throughout their entire life cycle. This is especially true at the embryo stage when temperature affects both growth rates and sex determination. Nest temperature is thus of prime importance to understand the persistence of populations in the context of climate change. We analysed the nest temperature of 21 loggerheads (Caretta caretta) originating from Dalyan Beach in Turkey using day-lagged generalised mixed models with autocorrelation. Surprisingly, the selected model for nest temperature includes an effect for sea surface temperature 4-times higher than for air temperature. We also detected a very significant effect of metabolic heating during development compatible with what is already known about marine turtle nests. Our new methodology allows the prediction of marine turtle nest temperatures with good precision based on a combination of air temperature measured at beach level and sea surface temperature in front of the beach. These data are available in public databases for most of the beaches worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily survival rate and habitat characteristics of nests of Wilson's Plover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinsser, Elizabeth; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2017-01-01

We assessed habitat characteristics and measured daily survival rate of 72 nests of Charadrius wilsonia (Wilson's Plover) during 2012 and 2013 on South Island and Sand Island on the central coast of South Carolina. At both study areas, nest sites were located at slightly higher elevations (i.e., small platforms of sand) relative to randomly selected nearby unused sites, and nests at each study area also appeared to be situated to enhance crypsis and/or vigilance. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests ranged from 0.969 to 0.988 among study sites and years, and the probability of nest survival ranged from 0.405 to 0.764. Flooding and predation were the most common causes of nest failure at both sites. At South Island, DSR was most strongly related to maximum tide height, which suggests that flooding and overwash may be common causes of nest loss for Wilson's Plovers at these study sites. The difference in model results between the 2 nearby study sites may be partially due to more-frequent flooding at Sand Island because of some underlying yet unmeasured physiographic feature. Remaining data gaps for the species include regional assessments of nest and chick survival and habitat requirements during chick rearing.

Managing Algorithmic Skeleton Nesting Requirements in Realistic Image Processing Applications: The Case of the SKiPPER-II Parallel Programming Environment's Operating Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coudarcher, Rémi; Duculty, Florent; Serot, Jocelyn; Jurie, Frédéric; Derutin, Jean-Pierre; Dhome, Michel

2005-12-01

SKiPPER is a SKeleton-based Parallel Programming EnviRonment being developed since 1996 and running at LASMEA Laboratory, the Blaise-Pascal University, France. The main goal of the project was to demonstrate the applicability of skeleton-based parallel programming techniques to the fast prototyping of reactive vision applications. This paper deals with the special features embedded in the latest version of the project: algorithmic skeleton nesting capabilities and a fully dynamic operating model. Throughout the case study of a complete and realistic image processing application, in which we have pointed out the requirement for skeleton nesting, we are presenting the operating model of this feature. The work described here is one of the few reported experiments showing the application of skeleton nesting facilities for the parallelisation of a realistic application, especially in the area of image processing. The image processing application we have chosen is a 3D face-tracking algorithm from appearance.

Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

PubMed

Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

2015-03-20

This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.

Inheritance of nesting behaviour across natural environmental variation in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

McGaugh, Suzanne E; Schwanz, Lisa E; Bowden, Rachel M; Gonzalez, Julie E; Janzen, Fredric J

2010-04-22

Nesting behaviour is critical for reproductive success in oviparous organisms with no parental care. In organisms where sex is determined by incubation temperature, nesting behaviour may be a prime target of selection in response to unbalanced sex ratios. To produce an evolutionary change in response to sex-ratio selection, components of nesting behaviour must be heritable. We estimated the field heritability of two key components of nesting behaviour in a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination by applying the 'animal model' to a pedigree reconstructed from genotype data. We obtained estimates of low to non-detectable heritability using repeated records across all environments. We then determined environment-specific heritability by grouping records with similar temperatures for the winter preceding the nesting season, a variable known to be highly associated with our two traits of interest, nest vegetation cover and Julian date of nesting. The heritability estimates of nest vegetation cover and Julian date of nesting were qualitatively highest and significant, or nearly so, after hot winters. Additive genetic variance for these traits was not detectable after cold winters. Our analysis suggests that the potential for evolutionary change of nesting behaviour may be dependent on the thermal conditions of the preceding winter, a season that is predicted to be especially subject to climate change.

Historical versus Contemporary Climate Forcing on the Annual Nesting Variability of Loggerhead Sea Turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Arendt, Michael D.; Schwenter, Jeffrey A.; Witherington, Blair E.; Meylan, Anne B.; Saba, Vincent S.

2013-01-01

A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998–2007 was not projected for 2029–2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998–2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response. PMID:24339901

Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Arendt, Michael D; Schwenter, Jeffrey A; Witherington, Blair E; Meylan, Anne B; Saba, Vincent S

2013-01-01

A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

The effects of heterospecifics and climatic conditions on incubation behavior within a mixed-species colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Hothem, Roger L.; Howe, Kristy H.; Casazza, Michael L.; Eadie, John M.

2016-01-01

Parental incubation behavior largely influences nest survival, a critical demographic process in avian population dynamics, and behaviors vary across species with different life history breeding strategies. Although research has identified nest survival advantages of mixing colonies, behavioral mechanisms that might explain these effects is largely lacking. We examined parental incubation behavior using video-monitoring techniques on Alcatraz Island, California, of black-crowned night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax(hereinafter, night-heron) in a mixed-species colony with California gulls Larus californicus and western gulls L. occidentalis. We first quantified general nesting behaviors (i.e. incubation constancy, and nest attendance), and a suite of specific nesting behaviors (i.e. inactivity, vigilance, preening, and nest maintenance) with respect to six different daily time periods. We employed linear mixed effects models to investigate environmental and temporal factors as sources of variation in incubation constancy and nest attendance using 211 nest days across three nesting seasons (2010–2012). We found incubation constancy (percent of time on the eggs) and nest attendance (percent of time at the nest) were lower for nests that were located < 3 m from one or more gull nest, which indirectly supports the predator protection hypothesis, whereby heterospecifics provide protection allowing more time for foraging and other self-maintenance activities. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of the influence of one nesting species on the incubation behavior of another. We also identified distinct differences between incubation constancy and nest attentiveness, indicating that these biparental incubating species do not share similar energetic constraints as those that are observed for uniparental species. Additionally, we found that variation in incubation behavior was a function of temperature and precipitation, where the strength of these effects was dependent on the time of day. Overall, these findings strengthen our understanding of incubation behavior and nest ecology of a colonial-nesting species.

Demographic response of Louisiana Waterthrush, a stream obligate songbird of conservation concern, to shale gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frantz, Mack W.; Wood, Petra B.; Sheehan, James; George, Gregory

2018-01-01

Shale gas development continues to outpace the implementation of best management practices for wildlife affected by development. We examined demographic responses of the Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla) to shale gas development during 2009–2011 and 2013–2015 in a predominantly forested landscape in West Virginia, USA. Forest cover across the study area decreased from 95% in 2008 to 91% in 2015, while the area affected by shale gas development increased from 0.4% to 3.9%. We quantified nest survival and productivity, a source–sink threshold, riparian habitat quality, territory density, and territory length by monitoring 58.1 km of forested headwater streams (n = 14 streams). Across years, we saw annual variability in nest survival, with a general declining trend over time. Of 11 a priori models tested to explain nest survival (n = 280 nests), 4 models that included temporal, habitat, and shale gas covariates were supported, and 2 of these models accounted for most of the variation in daily nest survival rate. After accounting for temporal effects (rainfall, nest age, and time within season), shale gas development had negative effects on nest survival. Population-level nest productivity declined and individual productivity was lower in areas disturbed by shale gas development than in undisturbed areas, and a source–sink threshold suggested that disturbed areas were more at risk of being sink habitat. Riparian habitat quality scores, as measured by a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency index and a waterthrush-specific habitat suitability index, differed by year and were negatively related to the amount of each territory disturbed by shale gas development. Territory density was not related to the amount of shale gas disturbance, but decreased over time as territory lengths increased. Overall, our results suggest a decline in waterthrush site quality as shale gas development increases, despite relatively small site-wide forest loss.

Social waves in giant honeybees (Apis dorsata) elicit nest vibrations.

PubMed

Kastberger, Gerald; Weihmann, Frank; Hoetzl, Thomas

2013-07-01

Giant honeybees (Apis dorsata) nest in the open and have developed a wide array of strategies for colony defence, including the Mexican wave-like shimmering behaviour. In this collective response, the colony members perform upward flipping of their abdomens in coordinated cascades across the nest surface. The time-space properties of these emergent waves are response patterns which have become of adaptive significance for repelling enemies in the visual domain. We report for the first time that the mechanical impulse patterns provoked by these social waves and measured by laser Doppler vibrometry generate vibrations at the central comb of the nest at the basic (='natural') frequency of 2.156 ± 0.042 Hz which is more than double the average repetition rate of the driving shimmering waves. Analysis of the Fourier spectra of the comb vibrations under quiescence and arousal conditions provoked by mass flight activity and shimmering waves gives rise to the proposal of two possible models for the compound physical system of the bee nest: According to the elastic oscillatory plate model, the comb vibrations deliver supra-threshold cues preferentially to those colony members positioned close to the comb. The mechanical pendulum model predicts that the comb vibrations are sensed by the members of the bee curtain in general, enabling mechanoreceptive signalling across the nest, also through the comb itself. The findings show that weak and stochastic forces, such as general quiescence or diffuse mass flight activity, cause a harmonic frequency spectrum of the comb, driving the comb as an elastic plate. However, shimmering waves provide sufficiently strong forces to move the nest as a mechanical pendulum. This vibratory behaviour may support the colony-intrinsic information hypothesis herein that the mechanical vibrations of the comb provoked by shimmering do have the potential to facilitate immediate communication of the momentary defensive state of the honeybee nest to the majority of its members.

Social waves in giant honeybees ( Apis dorsata) elicit nest vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastberger, Gerald; Weihmann, Frank; Hoetzl, Thomas

2013-07-01

Giant honeybees ( Apis dorsata) nest in the open and have developed a wide array of strategies for colony defence, including the Mexican wave-like shimmering behaviour. In this collective response, the colony members perform upward flipping of their abdomens in coordinated cascades across the nest surface. The time-space properties of these emergent waves are response patterns which have become of adaptive significance for repelling enemies in the visual domain. We report for the first time that the mechanical impulse patterns provoked by these social waves and measured by laser Doppler vibrometry generate vibrations at the central comb of the nest at the basic (=`natural') frequency of 2.156 ± 0.042 Hz which is more than double the average repetition rate of the driving shimmering waves. Analysis of the Fourier spectra of the comb vibrations under quiescence and arousal conditions provoked by mass flight activity and shimmering waves gives rise to the proposal of two possible models for the compound physical system of the bee nest: According to the elastic oscillatory plate model, the comb vibrations deliver supra-threshold cues preferentially to those colony members positioned close to the comb. The mechanical pendulum model predicts that the comb vibrations are sensed by the members of the bee curtain in general, enabling mechanoreceptive signalling across the nest, also through the comb itself. The findings show that weak and stochastic forces, such as general quiescence or diffuse mass flight activity, cause a harmonic frequency spectrum of the comb, driving the comb as an elastic plate. However, shimmering waves provide sufficiently strong forces to move the nest as a mechanical pendulum. This vibratory behaviour may support the colony-intrinsic information hypothesis herein that the mechanical vibrations of the comb provoked by shimmering do have the potential to facilitate immediate communication of the momentary defensive state of the honeybee nest to the majority of its members.

Ecology and Economics of Using Native Managed Bees for Almond Pollination.

PubMed

Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V; Artz, Derek R; Pitts-Singer, Theresa L; Ricketts, Taylor H

2018-02-09

Native managed bees can improve crop pollination, but a general framework for evaluating the associated economic costs and benefits has not been developed. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis to assess how managing blue orchard bees (Osmia lignaria Say [Hymenoptera: Megachildae]) alongside honey bees (Apis mellifera Linnaeus [Hymenoptera: Apidae]) can affect profits for almond growers in California. Specifically, we studied how adjusting three strategies can influence profits: (1) number of released O. lignaria bees, (2) density of artificial nest boxes, and (3) number of nest cavities (tubes) per box. We developed an ecological model for the effects of pollinator activity on almond yields, validated the model with published data, and then estimated changes in profits for different management strategies. Our model shows that almond yields increase with O. lignaria foraging density, even where honey bees are already in use. Our cost-benefit analysis shows that profit ranged from -US$1,800 to US$2,800/acre given different combinations of the three strategies. Adding nest boxes had the greatest effect; we predict an increase in profit between low and high nest box density strategies (2.5 and 10 boxes/acre). In fact, the number of released bees and the availability of nest tubes had relatively small effects in the high nest box density strategies. This suggests that growers could improve profits by simply adding more nest boxes with moderate number of tubes in each. Our approach can support grower decisions regarding integrated crop pollination and highlight the importance of a comprehensive ecological economic framework for assessing these decisions. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Conservation of the yellow-shouldered blackbird, Agelaius xanthomus, an endangered West Indian species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.W.; Post, W.; Cruz, A.

1991-01-01

The yellow-shouldered blackbird Agelaius xanthomus, endemic to Puerto Rico and Mona Island, is endangered, mainly because of brood parasitism by the shiny cowbird Molothrus bonariensis, which reached Puerto Rico at least 30 years ago. The yellow-shouldered blackbird populations have since declined, about 770?1200 remaining (470?900 on Mona Island) by 1982?1986 compared to a population of about 2400 in 1975. Nearly all nests of blackbirds in most of its habitats are parasitized by cowbirds. This significantly reduces nesting success, but blackbirds have evolved no defenses against brood parasitism. Removal of cowbirds from the yellow-shouldered blackbird nesting grounds, modeled after similar programmes for the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater on Kirtland's warbler Dendroica kirtlandii nesting areas, significantly increased blackbird production. Blackbirds readily accept nest boxes, and breeding populations can be established in otherwise unusable sites and can be concentrated in mangrove habitats, were they are more easily protected by cowbird removal. Furthermore, yellow-shouldered blackbird pairs using cavities, including nest boxes, fledged more young per nest than pairs using open nests.

Quantifying avian nest survival along an urbanization gradient using citizen- and scientist-generated data.

PubMed

Ryder, Thomas B; Reitsma, Robert; Evans, Brian; Marra, Peter P

2010-03-01

Despite the increasing pace of urbanization little is known about the factors that limit bird populations (i.e., population-level processes) within the urban/suburban land-use matrix. Here, we report rates of nest survival within the matrix of an urban land-use gradient in the greater Washington, D.C., USA, area for five common songbirds using data collected by scientists and citizens as part of a project called Neighborhood Nestwatch. Using program MARK, we modeled the effects of species, urbanization at multiple spatial scales (canopy cover and impervious surface), and observer (citizen vs. scientist) on nest survival of four open-cup and one cavity-nesting species. In addition, artificial nests were used to determine the relative impacts of specific predators along the land-use gradient. Our results suggest that predation on nests within the land-use matrix declines with urbanization but that there are species-specific differences. Moreover, variation in nest survival among species was best explained by urbanization metrics measured at larger "neighborhood" spatial scales (e.g., 1000 m). Trends were supported by data from artificial nests and suggest that variable predator communities (avian vs. mammalian) are one possible mechanism to explain differential nest survival. In addition, we assessed the quality of citizen science data and show that citizens had no negative effect on nest survival and provided estimates of nest survival comparable to Smithsonian biologists. Although birds nesting within the urban matrix experienced higher nest survival, individuals also faced a multitude of other challenges such as contaminants and invasive species, all of which could reduce adult survival.

Evaluation of osprey habitat suitability and interaction with contaminant exposure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toschik, P.C.; Christman, M.C.; Rattner, B.A.; Ottinger, M.A.

2006-01-01

Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) have been the focus of conservation efforts since their dramatic population decline attributed to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and related chemicals in the 1960s. Several recent studies of ospreys nesting in the United States have indicated improved reproduction. However, the density of breeding ospreys varies greatly among locations, with some areas seemingly habitable but not occupied. Because of concerns about pollution in the highly industrialized portions of the Delaware River and Bay, USA, we evaluated contaminant exposure and productivity in ospreys nesting on the Delaware River and Bay in 2002. We characterized habitat in the coastal zone of Delaware, USA, and the area around the river in Pennsylvania, USA, using data we collected as well as extant information provided by state and federal sources. We characterized habitat based on locations of occupied osprey nests in Delaware and Pennsylvania. We evaluated water clarity, water depth, land use and land cover, nest availability, and contaminants in sediment for use in a nest-occupancy model. Our results demonstrated that the presence of occupied nests was associated with water depth, water clarity, distance to an occupied osprey nest, and presence of urban land use, whereas a companion study demonstrated that hatching success was associated with the principal components derived from organochlorine-contaminant concentrations in osprey eggs (total polychlorinated biphenyls, p,p'-dichlorodiphenylethylene, chlordane and metabolites, and heptachlor epoxide). Our study provides guidelines for resource managers and local conservation organizations in management of ospreys and in development of habitat models that are appropriate for other piscivorous and marsh-nesting birds.

Environmental correlates of breeding in the Crested Caracara (Caracara cheriway)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, J.L.; Pias, Kyle E.; Cohen, J.B.; Catlin, D.H.

2009-01-01

We evaluated the influence of weather on reproduction of the Crested Caracara (Caracara cheriway) in an agricultural landscape in south-central Florida. We used a mixed logistic-regression modeling approach within an information-theoretic framework to examine the influence of total rainfall, rainfall frequency, and temperature on the number of breeding pairs, timing of breeding, nest success, and productivity of Crested Caracaras during 1994–2000. The best models indicated an influence of rainfall frequency and laying period on reproduction. More individuals nested and more pairs nested earlier during years with more frequent rainfall in late summer and early fall. Pairs that nested later in each breeding season had smaller clutches, lower nest success and productivity, and higher probability of nest failure. More frequent rainfall during early spring months that are usually characterized by water deficit (March–May), more frequent rainfall during the fall drawdown period (September–November), and a shorter winter dry period showed some association with higher probability of brood reduction and lower nest success. The proportion of nests that failed was higher in “wet” years, when total rainfall during the breeding season (September–April) was >10% above the 20-year average. Rainfall may influence reproduction in Crested Caracaras indirectly through food resources. As total rainfall increased during February–April, when most pairs are feeding nestlings or dependent fledglings, the proportion of drawdown-dependent species (those that become available as rainfall decreases and wetlands become isolated and shallow) in the diet of Crested Caracaras declined, which may indicate reduced availability of foraging habitat for this primarily terrestrial raptor.

Nested Cohort - R software package

Cancer.gov

NestedCohort is an R software package for fitting Kaplan-Meier and Cox Models to estimate standardized survival and attributable risks for studies where covariates of interest are observed on only a sample of the cohort.

Evolutionary games combining two or three pair coordinations on a square lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király, Balázs; Szabó, György

2017-10-01

We study multiagent logit-rule-driven evolutionary games on a square lattice whose pair interactions are composed of a maximal number of nonoverlapping elementary coordination games describing Ising-type interactions between just two of the available strategies. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the macroscopic noise-level-dependent behavior of the two- and three-pair games and the critical properties of the continuous phase transtitions these systems exhibit. The four-strategy game is shown to be equivalent to a system that consists of two independent and identical Ising models.

Evolutionary games combining two or three pair coordinations on a square lattice.

PubMed

Király, Balázs; Szabó, György

2017-10-01

We study multiagent logit-rule-driven evolutionary games on a square lattice whose pair interactions are composed of a maximal number of nonoverlapping elementary coordination games describing Ising-type interactions between just two of the available strategies. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the macroscopic noise-level-dependent behavior of the two- and three-pair games and the critical properties of the continuous phase transtitions these systems exhibit. The four-strategy game is shown to be equivalent to a system that consists of two independent and identical Ising models.

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900.

PubMed

Hacker, J David

2010-04-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900-02 rural and 1900-02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study highlights the point that the resolution of models is not the only factor in determining model performance - consistency between nested models is also important.

Reliability measures in item response theory: manifest versus latent correlation functions.

PubMed

Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel; Verbeke, Geert; De Boeck, Paul

2015-02-01

For item response theory (IRT) models, which belong to the class of generalized linear or non-linear mixed models, reliability at the scale of observed scores (i.e., manifest correlation) is more difficult to calculate than latent correlation based reliability, but usually of greater scientific interest. This is not least because it cannot be calculated explicitly when the logit link is used in conjunction with normal random effects. As such, approximations such as Fisher's information coefficient, Cronbach's α, or the latent correlation are calculated, allegedly because it is easy to do so. Cronbach's α has well-known and serious drawbacks, Fisher's information is not meaningful under certain circumstances, and there is an important but often overlooked difference between latent and manifest correlations. Here, manifest correlation refers to correlation between observed scores, while latent correlation refers to correlation between scores at the latent (e.g., logit or probit) scale. Thus, using one in place of the other can lead to erroneous conclusions. Taylor series based reliability measures, which are based on manifest correlation functions, are derived and a careful comparison of reliability measures based on latent correlations, Fisher's information, and exact reliability is carried out. The latent correlations are virtually always considerably higher than their manifest counterparts, Fisher's information measure shows no coherent behaviour (it is even negative in some cases), while the newly introduced Taylor series based approximations reflect the exact reliability very closely. Comparisons among the various types of correlations, for various IRT models, are made using algebraic expressions, Monte Carlo simulations, and data analysis. Given the light computational burden and the performance of Taylor series based reliability measures, their use is recommended. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

2017-11-01

Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A global goodness-of-fit test for receiver operating characteristic curve analysis via the bootstrap method.

PubMed

Zou, Kelly H; Resnic, Frederic S; Talos, Ion-Florin; Goldberg-Zimring, Daniel; Bhagwat, Jui G; Haker, Steven J; Kikinis, Ron; Jolesz, Ferenc A; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2005-10-01

Medical classification accuracy studies often yield continuous data based on predictive models for treatment outcomes. A popular method for evaluating the performance of diagnostic tests is the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The main objective was to develop a global statistical hypothesis test for assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for parametric ROC curves via the bootstrap. A simple log (or logit) and a more flexible Box-Cox normality transformations were applied to untransformed or transformed data from two clinical studies to predict complications following percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and for image-guided neurosurgical resection results predicted by tumor volume, respectively. We compared a non-parametric with a parametric binormal estimate of the underlying ROC curve. To construct such a GOF test, we used the non-parametric and parametric areas under the curve (AUCs) as the metrics, with a resulting p value reported. In the interventional cardiology example, logit and Box-Cox transformations of the predictive probabilities led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.888; p=0.78, and AUC=0.888; p=0.73, respectively), while in the brain tumor resection example, log and Box-Cox transformations of the tumor size also led to satisfactory AUCs (AUC=0.898; p=0.61, and AUC=0.899; p=0.42, respectively). In contrast, significant departures from GOF were observed without applying any transformation prior to assuming a binormal model (AUC=0.766; p=0.004, and AUC=0.831; p=0.03), respectively. In both studies the p values suggested that transformations were important to consider before applying any binormal model to estimate the AUC. Our analyses also demonstrated and confirmed the predictive values of different classifiers for determining the interventional complications following PCIs and resection outcomes in image-guided neurosurgery.

Rural practice preferences among medical students in Ghana: a discrete choice experiment

PubMed Central

Johnson, Jennifer C; Gyakobo, Mawuli; Agyei-Baffour, Peter; Asabir, Kwesi; Kotha, S Rani; Kwansah, Janet; Nakua, Emmanuel; Snow, Rachel C; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To determine how specific job attributes influenced fourth year medical students’ stated preference for hypothetical rural job postings in Ghana. Methods Based on discussions with medical student focus groups and physicians in practice and in the Ministry of Health, we created a discrete choice experiment (DCE) that assessed how students’ stated preference for certain rural postings was influenced by various job attributes: a higher salary, free superior housing, an educational allowance for children, improved equipment, supportive management, shorter contracts before study leave and a car. We conducted the DCE among all fourth year medical students in Ghana using a brief structured questionnaire and used mixed logit models to estimate the utility of each job attribute. Findings Complete data for DCE analysis were available for 302 of 310 (97%) students. All attribute parameter estimates differed significantly from zero and had the expected signs. In the main effects mixed logit model, improved equipment and supportive management were most strongly associated with job preference (β = 1.42; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.17 to 1.66, and β = 1.17; 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.39, respectively), although shorter contracts and salary bonuses were also associated. Discontinuing the provision of basic housing had a large negative influence (β = −1.59; 95% CI: −1.88 to −1.31). In models including gender interaction terms, women’s preferences were more influenced by supportive management and men’s preferences by superior housing. Conclusion Better working conditions were strongly associated with the stated choice of hypothetical rural postings among fourth year Ghanaian medical students. Studies are needed to find out whether job attributes determine the actual uptake of rural jobs by graduating physicians. PMID:20458371

What Do Patients Want from Otolaryngologists? A Discrete Choice Experiment.

PubMed

Naunheim, Matthew R; Rathi, Vinay K; Naunheim, Margaret L; Alkire, Blake C; Lam, Allen C; Song, Phillip C; Shrime, Mark G

2017-10-01

Objectives Patient preferences are crucial for the delivery of patient-centered care. Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are an emerging quantitative methodology used for understanding these preferences. In this study, we employed DCE techniques to understand the preferences of patients presenting for an ear, nose, and throat clinic visit. Study Design DCE. Setting Decision science laboratory. Methods A DCE survey of 5 attributes-wait time, physician experience, physician personality, utilization of visit time, and cost/copayment-was constructed with structured qualitative interviews with patients. The DCE was administered to participants from the general population, who chose among hypothetical scenarios that varied across these attributes. A conditional logit model was used to determine relative attribute importance, with a separate logit model for determining subject effects. Results A total of 161 participants were included. Cost/copayment had the greatest impact on decision making (importance, 32.2%), followed by wait time and physician experience (26.5% and 24.7%, respectively). Physician personality mattered least (4.7%), although all attributes were significantly correlated to decision making. Participants preferred doctors who spent more time performing physical examination than listening or explaining. Participants were willing to pay $52 extra to avoid a 4-week delay in appointment time; $87 extra for a physician with 10 years of experience (vs 0 years); and $9 extra for a caring, friendly, and compassionate doctor (vs formal, efficient, and business-like). Conclusion DCEs allow for powerful economic analyses that may help physicians understand patient preferences. Our model showed that cost is an important factor to patients and that patients are willing to pay extra for timely appointments, experience, and thorough physical examination.

Evaluating nest supplementation as a recovery strategy for the endangered rodents of the Florida Keys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cove, Michael V.; Simons, Theodore R.; Gardner, Beth; Maurer, Andrew S.; O'Connell, Allan F.

2017-01-01

The Key Largo woodrat (Neotoma floridana smalli) and Key Largo cotton mouse (Peromyscus gossypinus allapaticola) are federally endangered subspecies endemic to the tropical hardwood hammocks of Key Largo, Florida. Woodrats are considered generalists in habitat and diet, yet a steady decline in natural stick nests and capture rates over the past several decades suggests that they are limited by the availability of nesting habitat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. The more specialized Key Largo cotton mouse appears to rely on old growth hammock, a habitat type that is rare following past land clearing. In 2004, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service started building supplemental nest structures to restore habitat quality and connectivity for these endangered rodents, but nest use requires evaluation. We used camera traps and occupancy models to evaluate the factors influencing woodrat and cotton mouse use of the supplemental nests. We detected woodrats at 65 and cotton mice at 175 of 284 sampled nest structures, with co-occurrence at 38 nests. Woodrat nest use followed a gradient from low nest use in the north to high nest use in the south, which might relate to the proximity of free-ranging domestic cat (Felis catus) colonies in residential developments. Cotton mouse nest use, however, was related positively to mature hammock and related negatively to disturbed areas (e.g. scarified lands). The two species occurred independently of each other. Stick-stacking behavior was observed at supplemental nests and, although it was correlated with detection of woodrats, it was not a strong predictor of their occurrence. We suggest that nest supplementation can be an important tool for species recovery as habitat quality continues to improve with succession.

Habitat suitability models for cavity-nesting birds in a postfire landscape

Treesearch

Robin E. Russell; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley

2007-01-01

Models of habitat suitability in postfire landscapes are needed by land managers to make timely decisions regarding postfire timber harvest and other management activities. Many species of cavity-nesting birds are dependent on postfire landscapes for breeding and other aspects of their life history and are responsive to postfire management activities (e.g., timber...

Latent Variable Regression 4-Level Hierarchical Model Using Multisite Multiple-Cohorts Longitudinal Data. CRESST Report 801

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Kilchan

2011-01-01

This report explores a new latent variable regression 4-level hierarchical model for monitoring school performance over time using multisite multiple-cohorts longitudinal data. This kind of data set has a 4-level hierarchical structure: time-series observation nested within students who are nested within different cohorts of students. These…

Multi-level multi-task learning for modeling cross-scale interactions in nested geospatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, Shuai; Zhou, Jiayu; Tan, Pang-Ning; Fergus, Emi; Wagner, Tyler; Sorrano, Patricia

2017-01-01

Predictive modeling of nested geospatial data is a challenging problem as the models must take into account potential interactions among variables defined at different spatial scales. These cross-scale interactions, as they are commonly known, are particularly important to understand relationships among ecological properties at macroscales. In this paper, we present a novel, multi-level multi-task learning framework for modeling nested geospatial data in the lake ecology domain. Specifically, we consider region-specific models to predict lake water quality from multi-scaled factors. Our framework enables distinct models to be developed for each region using both its local and regional information. The framework also allows information to be shared among the region-specific models through their common set of latent factors. Such information sharing helps to create more robust models especially for regions with limited or no training data. In addition, the framework can automatically determine cross-scale interactions between the regional variables and the local variables that are nested within them. Our experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms all the baseline methods in at least 64% of the regions for 3 out of 4 lake water quality datasets evaluated in this study. Furthermore, the latent factors can be clustered to obtain a new set of regions that is more aligned with the response variables than the original regions that were defined a priori from the ecology domain.

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Godar, Alixandra J.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.

2016-01-01

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

Power lines, roads, and avian nest survival: effects on predator identity and predation intensity

PubMed Central

DeGregorio, Brett A; Weatherhead, Patrick J; Sperry, Jinelle H

2014-01-01

1 Anthropogenic alteration of landscapes can affect avian nest success by influencing the abundance, distribution, and behavior of predators. Understanding avian nest predation risk necessitates understanding how landscapes affect predator distribution and behavior. 2 From a sample of 463 nests of 17 songbird species, we evaluated how landscape features (distance to forest edge, unpaved roads, and power lines) influenced daily nest survival. We also used video cameras to identify nest predators at 137 nest predation events and evaluated how landscape features influenced predator identity. Finally, we determined the abundance and distribution of several of the principal predators using surveys and radiotelemetry. 3 Distance to power lines was the best predictor of predator identity: predation by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater), corvids (Corvus sp. and Cyanocitta cristata), racers (Coluber constrictor), and coachwhips (Masticophis flagellum) increased with proximity to power lines, whereas predation by rat snakes (Elaphe obsoleta) and raptors decreased. In some cases, predator density may reliably indicate nest predation risk because racers, corvids, and cowbirds frequently used power line right-of-ways. 4 Of five bird species with enough nests to analyze individually, daily nest survival of only indigo buntings (Passerina cyanea) decreased with proximity to power lines, despite predation by most predators at our site being positively associated with power lines. For all nesting species combined, distance to unpaved road was the model that most influenced daily nest survival. This pattern is likely a consequence of rat snakes, the locally dominant nest predator (28% of predation events), rarely using power lines and associated areas. Instead, rat snakes were frequently associated with road edges, indicating that not all edges are functionally similar. 5 Our results suggest that interactions between predators and landscape features are likely to be specific to both the local predators and landscape. Thus, predicting how anthropogenic changes to landscapes affect nesting birds requires that we know more about how landscape changes affect the behavior of nest predators and which nest predators are locally important. PMID:24967077

Power lines, roads, and avian nest survival: effects on predator identity and predation intensity.

PubMed

DeGregorio, Brett A; Weatherhead, Patrick J; Sperry, Jinelle H

2014-05-01

1 Anthropogenic alteration of landscapes can affect avian nest success by influencing the abundance, distribution, and behavior of predators. Understanding avian nest predation risk necessitates understanding how landscapes affect predator distribution and behavior. 2 From a sample of 463 nests of 17 songbird species, we evaluated how landscape features (distance to forest edge, unpaved roads, and power lines) influenced daily nest survival. We also used video cameras to identify nest predators at 137 nest predation events and evaluated how landscape features influenced predator identity. Finally, we determined the abundance and distribution of several of the principal predators using surveys and radiotelemetry. 3 Distance to power lines was the best predictor of predator identity: predation by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater), corvids (Corvus sp. and Cyanocitta cristata), racers (Coluber constrictor), and coachwhips (Masticophis flagellum) increased with proximity to power lines, whereas predation by rat snakes (Elaphe obsoleta) and raptors decreased. In some cases, predator density may reliably indicate nest predation risk because racers, corvids, and cowbirds frequently used power line right-of-ways. 4 Of five bird species with enough nests to analyze individually, daily nest survival of only indigo buntings (Passerina cyanea) decreased with proximity to power lines, despite predation by most predators at our site being positively associated with power lines. For all nesting species combined, distance to unpaved road was the model that most influenced daily nest survival. This pattern is likely a consequence of rat snakes, the locally dominant nest predator (28% of predation events), rarely using power lines and associated areas. Instead, rat snakes were frequently associated with road edges, indicating that not all edges are functionally similar. 5 Our results suggest that interactions between predators and landscape features are likely to be specific to both the local predators and landscape. Thus, predicting how anthropogenic changes to landscapes affect nesting birds requires that we know more about how landscape changes affect the behavior of nest predators and which nest predators are locally important.

The effects of ant nests on soil fertility and plant performance: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Farji-Brener, Alejandro G; Werenkraut, Victoria

2017-07-01

Ants are recognized as one of the major sources of soil disturbance world-wide. However, this view is largely based on isolated studies and qualitative reviews. Here, for the first time, we quantitatively determined whether ant nests affect soil fertility and plant performance, and identified the possible sources of variation of these effects. Using Bayesian mixed-models meta-analysis, we tested the hypotheses that ant effects on soil fertility and plant performance depend on the substrate sampled, ant feeding type, latitude, habitat and the plant response variable measured. Ant nests showed higher nutrient and cation content than adjacent non-nest soil samples, but similar pH. Nutrient content was higher in ant refuse materials than in nest soils. The fertilizer effect of ant nests was also higher in dry habitats than in grasslands or savannas. Cation content was higher in nests of plant-feeding ants than in nests of omnivorous species, and lower in nests from agro-ecosystems than in nests from any other habitat. Plants showed higher green/root biomass and fitness on ant nests soils than in adjacent, non-nest sites; but plant density and diversity were unaffected by the presence of ant nests. Root growth was particularly higher in refuse materials than in ant nest soils, in leaf-cutting ant nests and in deserts habitats. Our results confirm the major role of ant nests in influencing soil fertility and vegetation patterns and provide information about the factors that mediate these effects. First, ant nests improve soil fertility mainly through the accumulation of refuse materials. Thus, different refuse dump locations (external or in underground nest chambers) could benefit different vegetation life-forms. Second, ant nests could increase plant diversity at larger spatial scales only if the identity of favoured plants changes along environmental gradients (i.e. enhancing β-diversity). Third, ant species that feed on plants play a relevant role fertilizing soils, which may balance their known influence as primary consumers. Fourth, the effects of ant nests as fertility islands are larger in arid lands, possibly because fertility is intrinsically lower in these habitats. Overall, this study provide novel and quantitative evidence confirming that ant nests are key soil modifiers, emphasizing their role as ecological engineers. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Influence of Immunology Knowledge on Healthcare and Healthy Lifestyle.

PubMed

Abu Kassim, Noor Lide; Saleh Huddin, Afiqah Binti; Daoud, Jamal Ibrahim; Rahman, Mohammad Tariqur

2016-01-01

Completing a course in Immunology is expected to improve health care knowledge (HCK), which in turn is anticipated to influence a healthy lifestyle (HLS), controlled use of health care services (HCS) and an awareness of emerging health care concerns (HCC). This cross-sectional study was designed to determine whether these interrelationships are empirically supported. Participants involved in this study were government servants from two ministries in Malaysia (n = 356) and university students from a local university (n = 147). Participants were selected using the non-random purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which had been validated in a pilot study involving similar subjects. The questionnaire items were analyzed using Rasch analysis, SPSS version 21 and AMOS version 22. Results have shown that participants who followed a course in Immunology (CoI) had a higher primary HCK (Mean = 0.69 logit, SD = 1.29 logits) compared with those who had not (Mean = -0.27logit, SD = 1.26 logits). Overall, there were significant correlations among the HLS, the awareness of emerging HCC, and the controlled use of HCS (p <0.001). However, no significant correlations were observed between primary HCK and the other variables. However, significant positive correlation was observed between primary HCK and controlled use of HCS for the group without CoI. Path analysis showed that the awareness of emerging HCC exerted a positive influence on controlled use of HCS (β = 0.156, p < .001) and on HLS (β = 0.224, p < .001). These findings suggest that having CoI helps increase primary HCK which influences controlled use of HCS but does not necessarily influence HLS. Hence, introducing Immunology at various levels of education and increasing the public awareness of emerging HCC might help to improve population health en masse. In addition, further investigations on the factors affecting HLS is required to provide a better understanding on the relationship between primary HCK and HLS.

Tropospheric carbon monoxide over the Pacific during HIPPO: two-way coupled simulation of GEOS-Chem and its multiple nested models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Kuang, Y.; Yang, D.; Zhang, L.

2014-07-01

Global chemical transport models (CTMs) are used extensively to study air pollution and transport at a global scale. These models are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions, not allowing for detailed representation of small-scale nonlinear processes over the pollutant source regions. Here we couple the global GEOS-Chem CTM and its three high-resolution nested models to simulate the tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) over the Pacific Ocean during five HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns between 2009 and 2011. We develop a two-way coupler, PKUCPL, to integrate simulation results for chemical constituents from the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and the three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. The coupler obtains nested model results to modify the global model simulation within the respective nested domains, and simultaneously acquires global model results to provide lateral boundary conditions for the nested models. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation results in enhanced CO concentrations in the nested domains. Sensitivity tests suggest the enhancement to be a result of improved representation of the spatial distributions of CO, nitrogen oxides and non-methane volatile organic compounds, the meteorological dependence of natural emissions, and other resolution-dependent processes. The relatively long lifetime of CO allows for the enhancement to be accumulated and carried across the globe. We find that the two-way coupled simulation increases the global tropospheric mean CO concentrations in 2009 by 10.4%, with a greater enhancement at 13.3% in the Northern Hemisphere. Coincidently, the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical (OH) is reduced by 4.2% (as compared to the interannual variability of OH at 2.3%), resulting in a 4.2% enhancement in the methyl chloroform lifetime (MCF, via reaction with tropospheric OH). The resulting CO and OH contents and MCF lifetime are closer to observation-based estimates. Both the global and the two-way coupled models capture the general spatiotemporal patterns of HIPPO CO over the Pacific. The two-way coupled simulation is much closer to HIPPO CO, with a mean bias of 1.1 ppb (1.4%) below 9 km compared to the bias at -7.2 ppb (-9.2%) for the global model. The improvement is most apparent over the North Pacific. Our test simulations show that the global model could resemble the two-way coupled simulation (especially below 4 km) by increasing its global CO emissions by 15% for HIPPO-1 and HIPPO-3, by 25% for HIPPO-2 and HIPPO-4, and by 35% for HIPPO-5. This has important implications for using the global model to constrain CO emissions. Thus, the two-way coupled simulation is a significantly improved model tool to studying the global impacts of air pollutants from major anthropogenic source regions.

Island characteristics within wetlands influence waterbird nest success and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, Christopher; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Herzog, Mark

2016-01-01

Coastal waterbird populations are threatened by habitat loss and degradation from urban and agricultural development and forecasted sea level rise associated with climate change. Remaining wetlands often must be managed to ensure that waterbird habitat needs, and other ecosystem functions, are met. For many waterbirds, the availability of island nesting habitat is important for conserving breeding populations. We used linear mixed models to investigate the influence of pond and island landscape characteristics on nest abundance and nest success of American avocets (Recurvirostra americana), black-necked stilts (Himantopus mexicanus), and Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, based on a 9-year dataset that included >9,000 nests. Nest abundance and nest success were greatest within ponds and on individual islands located either <1 km or >4 km from San Francisco Bay. Further, nest abundance was greater within ponds with relatively few islands, and on linear-shaped, highly elongated islands compared to more rounded islands. Nest success was greater on islands located away from the nearest surrounding pond levee. Compared to more rounded islands, linear islands contained more near-water habitat preferred by many nesting waterbirds. Islands located away from pond levees may provide greater protection from terrestrial egg and chick predators. Our results indicate that creating and maintaining a few, relatively small, highly elongated and narrow islands away from mainland levees, in as many wetland ponds as possible would be effective at providing waterbirds with preferred nesting habitat.

Buteo Nesting Ecology: Evaluating Nesting of Swainson's Hawks in the Northern Great Plains.

PubMed

Inselman, Will M; Datta, Shubham; Jenks, Jonathan A; Jensen, Kent C; Grovenburg, Troy W

2015-01-01

Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) are long-distance migratory raptors that nest primarily in isolated trees located in areas of high grassland density. In recent years, anthropogenic conversion of grassland habitat has raised concerns about the status of the breeding population in the northern Great Plains. In 2013, we initiated a study to investigate the influence of extrinsic factors influencing Swainson's hawk nesting ecology in north-central South Dakota and south-central North Dakota. Using ground and aerial surveys, we located and monitored nesting Swainson's hawk pairs: 73 in 2013 and 120 in 2014. We documented 98 successful breeding attempts that fledged 163 chicks; 1.52 and 1.72 fledglings per successful nest in 2013 and 2014, respectively. We used Program MARK to evaluate the influence of land cover on nest survival. The top model, SDist2Farm+%Hay, indicated that nest survival (fledging at least one chick) decreased as nests were located farther from farm sites and as the percent of hay cover increased within 1200-m of the nest site (34.4%; 95% CI = 27.6%-42.3%). We used logistic regression analysis to evaluate the influence of landscape variables on nest-site selection; Swainson's hawks selected for nest sites located closer to roads. We suggest that tree belts associated with farm sites, whether occupied or not, provide critical breeding sites for Swainson's hawks. Additionally, poor breeding success may be related to the late migratory behavior of this species which requires them to occupy marginal habitat due to other raptors occupying the most suitable habitat prior to Swainson's hawks arriving to the breeding grounds.

Identifying Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in North America at the landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felis, Jonathan J.; Kissling, Michelle L.; Kaler, Robb S.A.; Kenney, Leah A.; Lawonn, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

The Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a small, non-colonial seabird endemic to marine waters of Alaska and eastern Russia that may have experienced significant population decline in recent decades, in part because of low reproductive success and terrestrial threats. Although recent studies have shed new light on Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat in a few discrete areas, the location and extent of suitable nesting habitat throughout most of its range remains unclear. Here, we have compiled all existing nest records and locations to identify landscape-scale parameters (distance to coast, elevation, slope, and land cover) that provide potential nesting habitat in four regions: northern Alaska, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula Mountains and Kodiak Island, and Pacific Coastal Mountains (including nearshore interior Canada). We produced a final map classifying 12% (70,411 km2) of the lands assessed as potential Kittlitz's Murrelet nesting habitat, with dense but distinct patches in northern Alaska and a more uninterrupted, narrow band extending across the Pacific Coastal Mountains, Alaska Peninsula Mountains, and Aleutian Islands. The extent of habitat-capable parameter values varied regionally, indicating that the Kittlitz's Murrelet may be able to use a variety of habitats for nesting, depending on availability. Future nesting habitat studies could employ spatially random sampling designs to allow for quantitatively robust modeling of nesting habitat and predictive extrapolation to areas where nests have not been located but likely exist.

The influence of regional hydrology on nesting behavior and nest fate of the American alligator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ugarte, Cristina A.; Bass, Oron L.; Nuttle, William; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Whelan, Kevin R.T.

2013-01-01

Hydrologic conditions are critical to the nesting behavior and reproductive success of crocodilians. In South Florida, USA, growing human settlement has led to extensive surface water management and modification of historical water flows in the wetlands, which have affected regional nesting of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Although both natural and anthropogenic factors are considered to determine hydrologic conditions, the aspects of hydrological patterns that affect alligator nest effort, flooding (partial and complete), and failure (no hatchling) are unclear. We deconstructed annual hydrological patterns using harmonic models that estimated hydrological matrices including mean, amplitude, timing of peak, and periodicity of surface water depth and discharge and examined their effects on alligator nesting using survey data from Shark Slough, Everglades National Park, from 1985 to 2005. Nest effort increased in years with higher mean and lesser periodicity of water depth. A greater proportion of nests were flooded and failed when peak discharge occurred earlier in the year. Also, nest flooding rates were greater in years with greater periodicity of water depth, and nest failure rate was greater when mean discharge was higher. This study guides future water management decisions to mitigate negative impacts on reproduction of alligators and provides wildlife managers with a tool for assessing and modifying annual water management plans to conserve crocodilians and other wetland species.

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

2015-01-01

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nol, Erica; Murphy, Sean P.; Cadman, Michael D.

2012-01-01

Using mark-recapture models, apparent survival was estimated from older banding and re-sighting data (1978–1983) of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) nesting on beaches and in salt marshes of coastal Virginia, USA. Oystercatchers nesting in salt marshes exhibited higher apparent survival (0.94 ±0.03) than birds nesting on beaches (0.81 ±0.06), a difference due to variation in mortality, permanent emigration, or both. Nesting on exposed barrier beaches may subject adults and young to higher risk of predation. These early estimates of adult survival for a species that is heavily monitored along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts can be used to (1) develop demographic models to determine population stability, (2) compare with estimates of adult survival from populations that have reached carrying capacity, and (3) compare with estimates of survival from other oystercatcher populations and species.

Habitat edges have weak effects on duck nest survival at local spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raquel, Amelia J; Ringelman, Kevin M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

Edge effects on nesting success have been documented in breeding birds in a variety of contexts, but there is still uncertainty in how edge type and spatial scale determine the magnitude and detectability of edge effects. Habitat edges are often viewed as predator corridors that surround or penetrate core habitat and increase the risk of predation for nearby nests. We studied the effects of three different types of potential predator corridors (main perimeter roads, field boundaries, and ATV trails within fields) on waterfowl nest survival in California. We measured the distance from duck nests to the nearest edge of each type, and used distance as a covariate in a logistic exposure analysis of nest survival. We found only weak evidence for edge effects due to predation. The best supported model of nest survival included all three distance categories, and while all coefficient estimates were positive (indicating that survival increased with distance from edge), 85% coefficient confidence intervals approached or bounded zero indicating an overall weak effect of habitat edges on nest success. We suggest that given the configuration of edges at our site, there may be few areas far enough from hard edges to be considered ‘core’ habitat, making edge effects on nest survival particularly difficult to detect.

Effects of experimental egg composition on rejection by Village Weavers (Ploceus cucullatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prather, J.W.; Cruz, A.; Weaver, P.F.; Wiley, J.W.

2007-01-01

We experimentally parasitized nests of the Village Weaver (Ploceus cucullatus) in Hispaniola using real and artificial eggs made from wood and modeling clay. Artificial eggs were similar in size and shape to real weaver eggs and were coated with acrylic paint and glazed. Real eggs were actual weaver eggs taken from Village Weaver nests. Experimental parasitic eggs (1) mimicked natural weaver eggs, (2) differed in color only, (3) differed in spotting only, or (4) mimicked Shiny Cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) egg color and spotting pattern. Parasitized nests were checked after 2-6 days. Real eggs were ejected from weaver nests with increasing frequency as they became less similar to the eggs in the nest with cowbirds eggs having the highest rejection (81%). However, for artificial egg types there were no significant within-composition differences in patterns of rejection. Clay eggs were usually ejected from the nests, whereas nests containing wood eggs often ended empty, or with only the artificial egg remaining in the nest. These patterns may reflect the differential ability of weavers to recognize and remove foreign eggs of different compositions from their nests. Researchers undertaking egg-rejection experiments should use real eggs either in addition or in place of artificial eggs to assess the cost of rejection and the coevolutionary relationships between parasite and host.

Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

PubMed Central

Kelly, Ryan P.; Pearson, Scott F.

2018-01-01

Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. PMID:29593940

Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

PubMed

Hart, Christopher J; Kelly, Ryan P; Pearson, Scott F

2018-01-01

Tufted Puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines-particularly among southern breeding colonies-and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Where to nest? Ecological determinants of chimpanzee nest abundance and distribution at the habitat and tree species scale.

PubMed

Carvalho, Joana S; Meyer, Christoph F J; Vicente, Luis; Marques, Tiago A

2015-02-01

Conversion of forests to anthropogenic land-uses increasingly subjects chimpanzee populations to habitat changes and concomitant alterations in the plant resources available to them for nesting and feeding. Based on nest count surveys conducted during the dry season, we investigated nest tree species selection and the effect of vegetation attributes on nest abundance of the western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, at Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park (LCNP), Guinea-Bissau, a forest-savannah mosaic widely disturbed by humans. Further, we assessed patterns of nest height distribution to determine support for the anti-predator hypothesis. A zero-altered generalized linear mixed model showed that nest abundance was negatively related to floristic diversity (exponential form of the Shannon index) and positively with the availability of smaller-sized trees, reflecting characteristics of dense-canopy forest. A positive correlation between nest abundance and floristic richness (number of plant species) and composition indicated that species-rich open habitats are also important in nest site selection. Restricting this analysis to feeding trees, nest abundance was again positively associated with the availability of smaller-sized trees, further supporting the preference for nesting in food tree species from dense forest. Nest tree species selection was non-random, and oil palms were used at a much lower proportion (10%) than previously reported from other study sites in forest-savannah mosaics. While this study suggests that human disturbance may underlie the exclusive arboreal nesting at LCNP, better quantitative data are needed to determine to what extent the construction of elevated nests is in fact a response to predators able to climb trees. Given the importance of LCNP as refuge for Pan t. verus our findings can improve conservation decisions for the management of this important umbrella species as well as its remaining suitable habitats. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Testing a Nested Skills Model of the Relations among Invented Spelling, Accurate Spelling, and Word Reading, from Kindergarten to Grade 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sénéchal, Monique

2017-01-01

The goal was to assess the role of invented spelling to subsequent reading and spelling as proposed by the Nested Skills Model of Early Literacy Acquisition. 107 English-speaking children were tested at the beginning of kindergarten and grade 1, and at the end of grade 1. The findings provided support for the proposed model. First, the role played…

Modeling marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) habitat using LiDAR-derived canopy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagar, Joan C.; Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Haggerty, Patricia K.; Nelson, S. Kim; Vesely, David G.

2014-01-01

LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is an emerging remote-sensing tool that can provide fine-scale data describing vertical complexity of vegetation relevant to species that are responsive to forest structure. We used LiDAR data to estimate occupancy probability for the federally threatened marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in the Oregon Coast Range of the United States. Our goal was to address the need identified in the Recovery Plan for a more accurate estimate of the availability of nesting habitat by developing occupancy maps based on refined measures of nest-strand structure. We used murrelet occupancy data collected by the Bureau of Land Management Coos Bay District, and canopy metrics calculated from discrete return airborne LiDAR data, to fit a logistic regression model predicting the probability of occupancy. Our final model for stand-level occupancy included distance to coast, and 5 LiDAR-derived variables describing canopy structure. With an area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.74, this model had acceptable discrimination and fair agreement (Cohen's κ = 0.24), especially considering that all sites in our sample were regarded by managers as potential habitat. The LiDAR model provided better discrimination between occupied and unoccupied sites than did a model using variables derived from Gradient Nearest Neighbor maps that were previously reported as important predictors of murrelet occupancy (AUC = 0.64, κ = 0.12). We also evaluated LiDAR metrics at 11 known murrelet nest sites. Two LiDAR-derived variables accurately discriminated nest sites from random sites (average AUC = 0.91). LiDAR provided a means of quantifying 3-dimensional canopy structure with variables that are ecologically relevant to murrelet nesting habitat, and have not been as accurately quantified by other mensuration methods.

Nesting behavior of house mice (Mus domesticus) selected for increased wheel-running activity.

PubMed

Carter, P A; Swallow, J G; Davis, S J; Garland, T

2000-03-01

Nest building was measured in "active" (housed with access to running wheels) and "sedentary" (without wheel access) mice (Mus domesticus) from four replicate lines selected for 10 generations for high voluntary wheel-running behavior, and from four randombred control lines. Based on previous studies of mice bidirectionally selected for thermoregulatory nest building, it was hypothesized that nest building would show a negative correlated response to selection on wheel-running. Such a response could constrain the evolution of high voluntary activity because nesting has also been shown to be positively genetically correlated with successful production of weaned pups. With wheel access, selected mice of both sexes built significantly smaller nests than did control mice. Without wheel access, selected females also built significantly smaller nests than did control females, but only when body mass was excluded from the statistical model, suggesting that body mass mediated this correlated response to selection. Total distance run and mean running speed on wheels was significantly higher in selected mice than in controls, but no differences in amount of time spent running were measured, indicating a complex cause of the response of nesting to selection for voluntary wheel running.

Food provisioning and parental status in songbirds: can occupancy models be used to estimate nesting performance?

PubMed

Corbani, Aude Catherine; Hachey, Marie-Hélène; Desrochers, André

2014-01-01

Indirect methods to estimate parental status, such as the observation of parental provisioning, have been problematic due to potential biases associated with imperfect detection. We developed a method to evaluate parental status based on a novel combination of parental provisioning observations and hierarchical modeling. In the summers of 2009 to 2011, we surveyed 393 sites, each on three to four consecutive days at Forêt Montmorency, Québec, Canada. We assessed parental status of 2331 adult songbirds based on parental food provisioning. To account for imperfect detection of parental status, we applied MacKenzie et al.'s (2002) two-state hierarchical model to obtain unbiased estimates of the proportion of sites with successfully nesting birds, and the proportion of adults with offspring. To obtain an independent evaluation of detection probability, we monitored 16 active nests in 2010 and conducted parental provisioning observations away from them. The probability of detecting food provisioning was 0.31 when using nest monitoring, a value within the 0.11 to 0.38 range that was estimated by two-state models. The proportion of adults or sites with broods approached 0.90 and varied depending on date during the sampling season and year, exemplifying the role of eastern boreal forests as highly productive nesting grounds for songbirds. This study offers a simple and effective sampling design for studying avian reproductive performance that could be implemented in national surveys such as breeding bird atlases.

Food Provisioning and Parental Status in Songbirds: Can Occupancy Models Be Used to Estimate Nesting Performance?

PubMed Central

Corbani, Aude Catherine; Hachey, Marie-Hélène; Desrochers, André

2014-01-01

Indirect methods to estimate parental status, such as the observation of parental provisioning, have been problematic due to potential biases associated with imperfect detection. We developed a method to evaluate parental status based on a novel combination of parental provisioning observations and hierarchical modeling. In the summers of 2009 to 2011, we surveyed 393 sites, each on three to four consecutive days at Forêt Montmorency, Québec, Canada. We assessed parental status of 2331 adult songbirds based on parental food provisioning. To account for imperfect detection of parental status, we applied MacKenzie et al.'s (2002) two-state hierarchical model to obtain unbiased estimates of the proportion of sites with successfully nesting birds, and the proportion of adults with offspring. To obtain an independent evaluation of detection probability, we monitored 16 active nests in 2010 and conducted parental provisioning observations away from them. The probability of detecting food provisioning was 0.31 when using nest monitoring, a value within the 0.11 to 0.38 range that was estimated by two-state models. The proportion of adults or sites with broods approached 0.90 and varied depending on date during the sampling season and year, exemplifying the role of eastern boreal forests as highly productive nesting grounds for songbirds. This study offers a simple and effective sampling design for studying avian reproductive performance that could be implemented in national surveys such as breeding bird atlases. PMID:24999969

Patterns of Dupuytren disease in fingers: studying correlations with a multivariate ordinal logit model.

PubMed

Lanting, Rosanne; Nooraee, Nazanin; Werker, Paul M N; van den Heuvel, Edwin R

2014-09-01

Dupuytren disease affects fingers in a variable fashion. Knowledge about specific disease patterns (phenotype) based on location and severity of the disease is lacking. In this cross-sectional study, 344 primary affected hands with Dupuytren disease were physically examined. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the coexistence of Dupuytren disease in pairs of fingers was calculated, and agglomerative hierarchical clustering was applied to identify possible clusters of affected fingers. With a multivariate ordinal logit model, the authors studied the correlation on severity, taking into account age and sex, and tested hypotheses on independence between groups of fingers. The ring finger was most frequently affected by Dupuytren disease, and contractures were seen in 15.1 percent of affected rays. The severity of thumb and index finger, middle and ring fingers, and middle and little fingers was significantly correlated. Occurrences in pairs of fingers were highest in the middle and ring fingers and lowest in the thumb and index finger. Correlation between the ring and little fingers and a correlation between fingers from the ulnar and radial sides could not be demonstrated. Rays on the ulnar side of the hand are predominantly affected. The middle finger is substantially correlated with other fingers on the ulnar side, and the thumb and index finger are correlated; however, there was no evidence that the ulnar side and the radial side were correlated in any way, which suggests that occurrence on one side of the hand does not predict Dupuytren disease on the other side of the hand. Risk, III.

Quality of life of patients from rural and urban areas in Poland with head and neck cancer treated with radiotherapy. A study of the influence of selected socio-demographic factors.

PubMed

Depta, Adam; Jewczak, Maciej; Skura-Madziała, Anna

2017-10-01

The quality of life (QoL) experienced by cancer patients depends both on their state of health and on sociodemographic factors. Tumours in the head and neck region have a particularly adverse effect on patients psychologically and on their social functioning. The study involved 121 patients receiving radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancers. They included 72 urban and 49 rural residents. QoL was assessed using the questionnaires EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-H&N35. The data were analysed using statistical methods: a χ 2 test for independence and a multinomial logit model. The evaluation of QoL showed a strong, statistically significant, positive dependence on state of health, and a weak dependence on sociodemographic factors and place of residence. Evaluations of financial situation and living conditions were similar for rural and urban residents. Patients from urban areas had the greatest anxiety about deterioration of their state of health. Rural respondents were more often anxious about a worsening of their financial situation, and expressed a fear of loneliness. Studying the QoL of patients with head and neck cancer provides information concerning the areas in which the disease inhibits their lives, and the extent to which it does so. It indicates conditions for the adaptation of treatment and care methods in the healthcare system which might improve the QoL of such patients. A multinomial logit model identifies the factors determining the patients' health assessment and defines the probable values of such assessment.

Contributing factors to vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity under rainfall.

PubMed

Jung, Soyoung; Jang, Kitae; Yoon, Yoonjin; Kang, Sanghyeok

2014-09-01

This study combined vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity estimations to examine factor impacts on Wisconsin highway safety in rainy weather. Because of data deficiency, the real-time water film depth, the car-following distance, and the vertical curve grade were estimated with available data sources and a GIS analysis to capture rainy weather conditions at the crash location and time. Using a negative binomial regression for crash frequency estimation, the average annual daily traffic per lane, the interaction between the posted speed limit change and the existence of an off-ramp, and the interaction between the travel lane number change and the pavement surface material change were found to increase the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes under rainfall. However, more average daily rainfall per month and a wider left shoulder were identified as factors that decrease the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes. In the crash severity estimation using the multinomial logit model that outperformed the ordered logit model, the travel lane number, the interaction between the travel lane number and the slow grade, the deep water film, and the rear-end collision type were more likely to increase the likelihood of injury crashes under rainfall compared with crashes involving only property damage. As an exploratory data analysis, this study provides insight into potential strategies for rainy weather highway safety improvement, specifically, the following weather-sensitive strategies: road design and ITS implementation for drivers' safety awareness under rainfall. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The two faces of enhancing utilization of health-care services: determinants of patient initiation and retention in rural Burkina Faso.

PubMed Central

Mugisha, Frederick; Bocar, Kouyate; Dong, Hengjin; Chepng'eno, Gloria; Sauerborn, Rainer

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore the factors that determine whether a patient will initiate treatment within a system of health-care services, and the factors that determine whether the patient will be retained in the chosen system, in Nouna, rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: The data used were pooled from four rounds of a household survey conducted in Nouna, rural Burkina Faso. The ongoing demographic surveillance system provided a sampling framework for this survey in which 800 households were sampled using a two-stage cluster sampling procedure. More than one treatment episode was observed for a single episode of illness per patient. The multinomial logit model was used to explore the determinants of patient initiation to systems of modern, traditional and home treatment, and a binary logit model was used to explore the determinants of patient retention within the chosen health-care provider system. FINDINGS: The results suggest that the determinants of patient initiation and their subsequent retention are different. Household income, education, urban residence and expected competency of the provider are positive predictors of initiation, but not of retention, for modern health-care services. Only perceived quality of care positively predicted retention in modern health-care services. CONCLUSION: Interventions focusing on patient initiation and patient retention are likely to be different. Policies directed at enhancing initiation for modern health-care services would primarily focus on reducing financial barriers, while those directed at increasing retention would primarily focus on attributes that improve the perceived quality of care. PMID:15375446

Activity interference and noise annoyance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, F. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Birnie, S. E.

1985-11-01

Debate continues over differences in the dose-response functions used to predict the annoyance at different sources of transportation noise. This debate reflects the lack of an accepted model of noise annoyance in residential communities. In this paper a model is proposed which is focussed on activity interference as a central component mediating the relationship between noise exposure and annoyance. This model represents a departure from earlier models in two important respects. First, single event noise levels (e.g., maximum levels, sound exposure level) constitute the noise exposure variables in place of long-term energy equivalent measures (e.g., 24-hour Leq or Ldn). Second, the relationships within the model are expressed as probabilistic rather than deterministic equations. The model has been tested by using acoustical and social survey data collected at 57 sites in the Toronto region exposed to aircraft, road traffic or train noise. Logit analysis was used to estimate two sets of equations. The first predicts the probability of activity interference as a function of event noise level. Four types of interference are included: indoor speech, outdoor speech, difficulty getting to sleep and awakening. The second set predicts the probability of annoyance as a function of the combination of activity interferences. From the first set of equations, it was possible to estimate a function for indoor speech interference only. In this case, the maximum event level was the strongest predictor. The lack of significant results for the other types of interference is explained by the limitations of the data. The same function predicts indoor speech interference for all three sources—road, rail and aircraft noise. The results for the second set of equations show strong relationships between activity interference and the probability of annoyance. Again, the parameters of the logit equations are similar for the three sources. A trial application of the model predicts a higher probability of annoyance for aircraft than for road traffic situations with the same 24-hour Leq. This result suggests that the model may account for previously reported source differences in annoyance.

Rasch measurement: the Arm Activity measure (ArmA) passive function sub-scale.

PubMed

Ashford, Stephen; Siegert, Richard J; Alexandrescu, Roxana

2016-01-01

To evaluate the conformity of the Arm Activity measure (ArmA) passive function sub-scale to the Rasch model. A consecutive cohort of patients (n = 92) undergoing rehabilitation, including upper limb rehabilitation and spasticity management, at two specialist rehabilitation units were included. Rasch analysis was used to examine scaling and conformity to the model. Responses were analysed using Rasch unidimensional measurement models (RUMM 2030). The following aspects were considered: overall model and individual item fit statistics and fit residuals, internal reliability, item response threshold ordering, item bias, local dependency and unidimensionality. ArmA contains both active and passive function sub-scales, but in this analysis only the passive function sub-scale was considered. Four of the seven items in the ArmA passive function sub-scale initially had disordered thresholds. These items were rescored to four response options, which resulted in ordered thresholds for all items. Once the items with disordered thresholds had been rescored, item bias was not identified for age, global disability level or diagnosis, but with a small difference in difficulty between males and females for one item of the scale. Local dependency was not observed and the unidimensionality of the sub-scale was supported and good fit to the Rasch model was identified. The person separation index (PSI) was 0.95 indicating that the scale is able to reliably differentiate at least two groups of patients. The ArmA passive function sub-scale was shown in this evaluation to conform to the Rasch model once disordered thresholds had been addressed. Using the logit scores produced by the Rasch model it was possible to convert this back to the original scale range. Implications for Rehabilitation The ArmA passive function sub-scale was shown, in this evaluation, to conform to the Rasch model once disordered thresholds had been addressed and therefore to be a clinically applicable and potentially useful hierarchical measure. Using Rasch logit scores it has be possible to convert back to the original ordinal scale range and provide an indication of real change to enable evaluation of clinical outcome of importance to patients and clinicians.

Eliciting preferences for waterpipe tobacco smoking using a discrete choice experiment: implications for product regulation.

PubMed

Salloum, Ramzi G; Maziak, Wasim; Hammond, David; Nakkash, Rima; Islam, Farahnaz; Cheng, Xi; Thrasher, James F

2015-09-09

Waterpipe smoking is highly prevalent among university students, and has been increasing in popularity despite mounting evidence showing it is harmful to health. The aim of this study was to measure preferences for waterpipe smoking and determine which product characteristics are most important to smokers. A large university in the Southeastern USA. Adult waterpipe smokers attending the university (N=367). Participants completed an Internet-based discrete choice experiment to reveal their preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of hypothetical waterpipe smoking sessions. Participants were presented with waterpipe lounge menus, each with three fruit-flavoured options and one tobacco flavoured option, in addition to an opt out option. Nicotine content and price were provided for each choice. Participants were randomised to either receive menus with a text-only health-warning message or no message. Multinomial and nested logit models were used to estimate the impact on consumer choice of attributes and between-subject assignment of health warnings respectively. On average, participants preferred fruit-flavoured varieties to tobacco flavour. They were averse to options labelled with higher nicotine content. Females and non-smokers of cigarettes were more likely than their counterparts to prefer flavoured and nicotine-free varieties. Participants exposed to a health warning were more likely to opt out. Fruit-flavoured tobacco and lower nicotine content labels, two strategies widely used by the industry, increase the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults. Waterpipe-specific regulation should limit the availability of flavoured waterpipe tobacco and require accurate labelling of constituents. Waterpipe-specific tobacco control regulation, along with research to inform policy, is required to curb this emerging public health threat. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Disentangling the diversity of arboreal ant communities in tropical forest trees.

PubMed

Klimes, Petr; Fibich, Pavel; Idigel, Cliffson; Rimandai, Maling

2015-01-01

Tropical canopies are known for their high abundance and diversity of ants. However, the factors which enable coexistence of so many species in trees, and in particular, the role of foragers in determining local diversity, are not well understood. We censused nesting and foraging arboreal ant communities in two 0.32 ha plots of primary and secondary lowland rainforest in New Guinea and explored their species diversity and composition. Null models were used to test if the records of species foraging (but not nesting) in a tree were dependent on the spatial distribution of nests in surrounding trees. In total, 102 ant species from 389 trees occurred in the primary plot compared with only 50 species from 295 trees in the secondary forest plot. However, there was only a small difference in mean ant richness per tree between primary and secondary forest (3.8 and 3.3 sp. respectively) and considerably lower richness per tree was found only when nests were considered (1.5 sp. in both forests). About half of foraging individuals collected in a tree belonged to species which were not nesting in that tree. Null models showed that the ants foraging but not nesting in a tree are more likely to nest in nearby trees than would be expected at random. The effects of both forest stage and tree size traits were similar regardless of whether only foragers, only nests, or both datasets combined were considered. However, relative abundance distributions of species differed between foraging and nesting communities. The primary forest plot was dominated by native ant species, whereas invasive species were common in secondary forest. This study demonstrates the high contribution of foragers to arboreal ant diversity, indicating an important role of connectivity between trees, and also highlights the importance of primary vegetation for the conservation of native ant communities.

Disentangling the Diversity of Arboreal Ant Communities in Tropical Forest Trees

PubMed Central

Klimes, Petr; Fibich, Pavel; Idigel, Cliffson; Rimandai, Maling

2015-01-01

Tropical canopies are known for their high abundance and diversity of ants. However, the factors which enable coexistence of so many species in trees, and in particular, the role of foragers in determining local diversity, are not well understood. We censused nesting and foraging arboreal ant communities in two 0.32 ha plots of primary and secondary lowland rainforest in New Guinea and explored their species diversity and composition. Null models were used to test if the records of species foraging (but not nesting) in a tree were dependent on the spatial distribution of nests in surrounding trees. In total, 102 ant species from 389 trees occurred in the primary plot compared with only 50 species from 295 trees in the secondary forest plot. However, there was only a small difference in mean ant richness per tree between primary and secondary forest (3.8 and 3.3 sp. respectively) and considerably lower richness per tree was found only when nests were considered (1.5 sp. in both forests). About half of foraging individuals collected in a tree belonged to species which were not nesting in that tree. Null models showed that the ants foraging but not nesting in a tree are more likely to nest in nearby trees than would be expected at random. The effects of both forest stage and tree size traits were similar regardless of whether only foragers, only nests, or both datasets combined were considered. However, relative abundance distributions of species differed between foraging and nesting communities. The primary forest plot was dominated by native ant species, whereas invasive species were common in secondary forest. This study demonstrates the high contribution of foragers to arboreal ant diversity, indicating an important role of connectivity between trees, and also highlights the importance of primary vegetation for the conservation of native ant communities. PMID:25714831

Factors affecting hatch success of hawksbill sea turtles on Long Island, Antigua, West Indies.

PubMed

Ditmer, Mark Allan; Stapleton, Seth Patrick

2012-01-01

Current understanding of the factors influencing hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatch success is disparate and based on relatively short-term studies or limited sample sizes. Because global populations of hawksbills are heavily depleted, evaluating the parameters that impact hatch success is important to their conservation and recovery. Here, we use data collected by the Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project (JBHP) to investigate hatch success. The JBHP implements saturation tagging protocols to study a hawksbill rookery in Antigua, West Indies. Habitat data, which reflect the varied nesting beaches, are collected at egg deposition, and nest contents are exhumed and categorized post-emergence. We analyzed hatch success using mixed-model analyses with explanatory and predictive datasets. We incorporated a random effect for turtle identity and evaluated environmental, temporal and individual-based reproductive variables. Hatch success averaged 78.6% (SD: 21.2%) during the study period. Highly supported models included multiple covariates, including distance to vegetation, deposition date, individual intra-seasonal nest number, clutch size, organic content, and sand grain size. Nests located in open sand were predicted to produce 10.4 more viable hatchlings per clutch than nests located >1.5 m into vegetation. For an individual first nesting in early July, the fourth nest of the season yielded 13.2 more viable hatchlings than the initial clutch. Generalized beach section and inter-annual variation were also supported in our explanatory dataset, suggesting that gaps remain in our understanding of hatch success. Our findings illustrate that evaluating hatch success is a complex process, involving multiple environmental and individual variables. Although distance to vegetation and hatch success were inversely related, vegetation is an important component of hawksbill nesting habitat, and a more complete assessment of the impacts of specific vegetation types on hatch success and hatchling sex ratios is needed. Future research should explore the roles of sand structure, nest moisture, and local weather conditions.

Factors Affecting Hatch Success of Hawksbill Sea Turtles on Long Island, Antigua, West Indies

PubMed Central

Ditmer, Mark Allan; Stapleton, Seth Patrick

2012-01-01

Current understanding of the factors influencing hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatch success is disparate and based on relatively short-term studies or limited sample sizes. Because global populations of hawksbills are heavily depleted, evaluating the parameters that impact hatch success is important to their conservation and recovery. Here, we use data collected by the Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project (JBHP) to investigate hatch success. The JBHP implements saturation tagging protocols to study a hawksbill rookery in Antigua, West Indies. Habitat data, which reflect the varied nesting beaches, are collected at egg deposition, and nest contents are exhumed and categorized post-emergence. We analyzed hatch success using mixed-model analyses with explanatory and predictive datasets. We incorporated a random effect for turtle identity and evaluated environmental, temporal and individual-based reproductive variables. Hatch success averaged 78.6% (SD: 21.2%) during the study period. Highly supported models included multiple covariates, including distance to vegetation, deposition date, individual intra-seasonal nest number, clutch size, organic content, and sand grain size. Nests located in open sand were predicted to produce 10.4 more viable hatchlings per clutch than nests located >1.5 m into vegetation. For an individual first nesting in early July, the fourth nest of the season yielded 13.2 more viable hatchlings than the initial clutch. Generalized beach section and inter-annual variation were also supported in our explanatory dataset, suggesting that gaps remain in our understanding of hatch success. Our findings illustrate that evaluating hatch success is a complex process, involving multiple environmental and individual variables. Although distance to vegetation and hatch success were inversely related, vegetation is an important component of hawksbill nesting habitat, and a more complete assessment of the impacts of specific vegetation types on hatch success and hatchling sex ratios is needed. Future research should explore the roles of sand structure, nest moisture, and local weather conditions. PMID:22802928

The common redstart as a suitable model to study cuckoo-host coevolution in a unique ecological context.

PubMed

Samaš, Peter; Rutila, Jarkko; Grim, Tomáš

2016-11-25

Co-evolutionary arms-races result in spatio-temporally dynamic relationships between interacting species, e.g., brood parasites and their avian hosts. However, majority of avian co-evolutionary studies are limited to "snap-shots" of a single breeding season in an open-nesting host. In a long-term study (11 breeding seasons), we explored a unique system between the brood parasitic common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) and its host, the common redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) which is exceptional among all cuckoo hosts due to being a cavity nester. Conditions in cavities are different from open nests, e.g., lower risks of predation, more favourable microclimate, increased risks of unsuccessful eviction of host offspring by the cuckoo nestling. Different conditions in cavities thus can be expected to shape parasite-host coevolution differently from what is typically studied in open nesting hosts. In our highly parasitised nest-box population (32.5%, n = 569 nests) only 35.7% of cuckoo eggs were laid into the nest cup and incubated by redstarts. Host nests shifted availability to later into the breeding season from 2006 to 2016 and cuckoos followed this trend by also shifting their timing of parasitism. Although previous studies revealed that redstarts selectively eject experimental non-mimetic eggs (desertion was not a specific response to foreign eggs), the hosts never ejected naturally-laid cuckoo eggs or cuckoo eggs cross-fostered into naturally non-parasitised nests. We solve the long-standing debate about the origin of cuckoo eggs found on the nest rim: we gained the first direct video-recording evidence that eggs found on the nest rim were mislaid by parasites and not ejected by hosts. Naturally-parasitised nests were deserted more often (18.6%) than control non-parasitized nests (5.6%) or nests artificially parasitised by us (1.4%). This suggests that the sight of the laying cuckoo female is the primary cue that triggers egg rejection (by desertion) in this host. Review of data from this and other study sites (10 populations, n = 853 experiments) demonstrates high variability in rejection rates and shows that populations facing higher parasitism rates reject parasitic eggs with higher frequencies. Surprisingly, cuckoo chicks either growing solitarily or with redstart chicks did not differ in their fledging success. We suggest that the redstart is an ideal model system to study the flexibility and limits of brood parasite-host co-evolution in an extreme ecological setting.

Predicting species interactions from edge responses: mongoose predation on hawksbill sea turtle nests in fragmented beach habitat.

PubMed

Leighton, Patrick A; Horrocks, Julia A; Krueger, Barry H; Beggs, Jennifer A; Kramer, Donald L

2008-11-07

Because species respond differently to habitat boundaries and spatial overlap affects encounter rates, edge responses should be strong determinants of spatial patterns of species interactions. In the Caribbean, mongooses (Herpestes javanicus) prey on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) eggs. Turtles nest in both open sand and vegetation patches, with a peak in nest abundance near the boundary between the two microhabitats; mongooses rarely leave vegetation. Using both artificial nests and hawksbill nesting data, we examined how the edge responses of these species predict the spatial patterns of nest mortality. Predation risk was strongly related to mongoose abundance but was not affected by nest density or habitat type. The product of predator and prey edge response functions accurately described the observed pattern of total prey mortality. Hawksbill preference for vegetation edge becomes an ecological trap in the presence of mongooses. This is the first study to predict patterns of predation directly from continuous edge response functions of interacting species, establishing a link between models of edge response and species interactions.

Predicting species interactions from edge responses: mongoose predation on hawksbill sea turtle nests in fragmented beach habitat

PubMed Central

Leighton, Patrick A; Horrocks, Julia A; Krueger, Barry H; Beggs, Jennifer A; Kramer, Donald L

2008-01-01

Because species respond differently to habitat boundaries and spatial overlap affects encounter rates, edge responses should be strong determinants of spatial patterns of species interactions. In the Caribbean, mongooses (Herpestes javanicus) prey on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) eggs. Turtles nest in both open sand and vegetation patches, with a peak in nest abundance near the boundary between the two microhabitats; mongooses rarely leave vegetation. Using both artificial nests and hawksbill nesting data, we examined how the edge responses of these species predict the spatial patterns of nest mortality. Predation risk was strongly related to mongoose abundance but was not affected by nest density or habitat type. The product of predator and prey edge response functions accurately described the observed pattern of total prey mortality. Hawksbill preference for vegetation edge becomes an ecological trap in the presence of mongooses. This is the first study to predict patterns of predation directly from continuous edge response functions of interacting species, establishing a link between models of edge response and species interactions. PMID:18647718

The Correlation of Tree Phenology with nest number of Orang Utan Sumatera (Pongo abelii) on Primary Forest, Resort Sei Betung, Gunung Leuser National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartini, K. S.; Patana, P.; Oktaviani, M.

2017-03-01

Food availability affect the orangutan activities, including activities to make nests. This study was conducted to determine the correlation between the phenology of trees with the number of nests made by orangutans in primary forest Resort Sei Betung, Gunung Leuser National Park. Multi linear regression was used in this study to determine the relation and correlation between phenology and the presence of orangutan nests on a track that has been created. It took over 6 months (March - August 2015). There were 15 orangutan nests found on the track during the study. The equation model was : = 27,649 -0,011X1-0,104X2-0,056X3, and there was no significant differences (sig >0,05). The value of R2 was 70,3%. It means that all predictors simultaneously explain 70,3% of the presence of orangutan’s nest, and there is an expected predictors that may be the most affect on nest presence. The season or the intensity of rain may consider as an expected predictor.

Detection of Talaromyces marneffei from Fresh Tissue of an Inhalational Murine Pulmonary Model Using Nested PCR

PubMed Central

Liu, Yinghui; Huang, Xiaowen; Yi, Xiuwen; He, Ya; Mylonakis, Eleftherios; Xi, Liyan

2016-01-01

Penicilliosis marneffei, often consecutive to the aspiration of Talaromyces marneffei (Penicillium marneffei), continues to be one of the significant causes of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients in endemic regions such as Southeast Asia. Improving the accuracy of diagnosing this disease would aid in reducing the mortality of associated infections. In this study, we developed a stable and reproducible murine pulmonary model that mimics human penicilliosis marneffei using a nebulizer to deliver Talaromyces marneffei (SUMS0152) conidia to the lungs of BALB/c nude mice housed in exposure chamber. Using this model, we further revealed that nested PCR was sensitive and specific for detecting Talaromyces marneffei in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and fresh tissues. This inhalation model may provide a more representative analysis tool for studying the development of penicilliosis marneffei, in addition to revealing that nested PCR has a predictive value in reflecting pulmonary infection. PMID:26886887

Gaseous templates in ant nests.

PubMed

Cox, M D; Blanchard, G B

2000-05-21

We apply a diffusion model to the atmosphere of ant nests. With particular reference to carbon dioxide (CO2), we explore analytically and numerically the spatial and temporal patterns of brood- or worker-produced gases in nests. The maximum concentration within a typical one-chamber ant nest with approximately 200 ants can reach 12.5 times atmospheric concentration, reaching 95% of equilibrium concentrations within 15 min. Maximum concentration increases with increasing number of ants in the nest (or production rate of the gas), distance between the centre of the nest ants and the nest entrance, entrance length, wall thickness, and with decreasing entrance width, wall permeability and diffusion coefficient. The nest can be divided into three qualitatively distinct regions according to the shape of the gradient: a plateau of high concentration in the back half of the nest; an intermediate region of increasingly steep gradient towards the entrance; and a steep linear gradient in the entrance tunnel. These regions are robust to changes in gas concentrations, but vary with changes in nest architecture. The pattern of diffusing gases contains information about position and orientation relative to gas sources and sinks, and about colony state, including colony size, activity state and aspects of nest architecture. We discuss how this diffusion pattern may act as a "dynamic template", providing local cues which trigger behavioural acts appropriate to colony needs, which in turn may feed back to changes in the gas template. In particular, wall building occurs along lines of similar concentration for a variety of nest geometries; there is surprising convergence between the period of cycles of synchronously active ants and the time taken for CO2 levels to equilibrate; and the qualitatively distinct regions of the "dynamic template" correspond to regions occupied by different groups of ants.

Buteo Nesting Ecology: Evaluating Nesting of Swainson’s Hawks in the Northern Great Plains

PubMed Central

Inselman, Will M.; Datta, Shubham; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Jensen, Kent C.; Grovenburg, Troy W.

2015-01-01

Swainson’s hawks (Buteo swainsoni) are long-distance migratory raptors that nest primarily in isolated trees located in areas of high grassland density. In recent years, anthropogenic conversion of grassland habitat has raised concerns about the status of the breeding population in the northern Great Plains. In 2013, we initiated a study to investigate the influence of extrinsic factors influencing Swainson’s hawk nesting ecology in north-central South Dakota and south-central North Dakota. Using ground and aerial surveys, we located and monitored nesting Swainson’s hawk pairs: 73 in 2013 and 120 in 2014. We documented 98 successful breeding attempts that fledged 163 chicks; 1.52 and 1.72 fledglings per successful nest in 2013 and 2014, respectively. We used Program MARK to evaluate the influence of land cover on nest survival. The top model, S Dist2Farm+%Hay, indicated that nest survival (fledging at least one chick) decreased as nests were located farther from farm sites and as the percent of hay cover increased within 1200-m of the nest site (34.4%; 95% CI = 27.6%–42.3%). We used logistic regression analysis to evaluate the influence of landscape variables on nest-site selection; Swainson’s hawks selected for nest sites located closer to roads. We suggest that tree belts associated with farm sites, whether occupied or not, provide critical breeding sites for Swainson’s hawks. Additionally, poor breeding success may be related to the late migratory behavior of this species which requires them to occupy marginal habitat due to other raptors occupying the most suitable habitat prior to Swainson’s hawks arriving to the breeding grounds. PMID:26327440

Marine turtles are not fussy nesters: a novel test of small-scale nest site selection using structure from motion beach terrain information

PubMed Central

Leon, Javier X.; Gilby, Ben L.; Olds, Andrew D.; Schlacher, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Background Nest selection is widely regarded as a key process determining the fitness of individuals and viability of animal populations. For marine turtles that nest on beaches, this is particularly pivotal as the nesting environment can significantly control reproductive success.The aim of this study was to identify the environmental attributes of beaches (i.e., morphology, vegetation, urbanisation) that may be associated with successful oviposition in green and loggerhead turtle nests. Methods We quantified the proximity of turtle nests (and surrounding beach locations) to urban areas, measured their exposure to artificial light, and used ultra-high resolution (cm-scale) digital surface models derived from Structure-from-Motion (SfM) algorithms, to characterise geomorphic and vegetation features of beaches on the Sunshine Coast, eastern Australia. Results At small spatial scales (i.e., <100 m), we found no evidence that turtles selected nest sites based on a particular suite of environmental attributes (i.e., the attributes of nest sites were not consistently different from those of surrounding beach locations). Nest sites were, however, typically characterised by occurring close to vegetation, on parts of the shore where the beach- and dune-face was concave and not highly rugged, and in areas with moderate exposure to artificial light. Conclusion This study used a novel empirical approach to identify the attributes of turtle nest sites from a broader ‘envelope’ of environmental nest traits, and is the first step towards optimizing conservation actions to mitigate, at the local scale, present and emerging human impacts on turtle nesting beaches. PMID:28070454

Beach Geomorphology and Kemp's Ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) Nest Site Selection along Padre Island, Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culver, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.; Shaver, D. J.; Tissot, P.; Starek, M. J.

2017-12-01

The Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is the most endangered sea turtle in the world, largely due to the limited geographic range of its nesting habitat. In the U.S., the majority of nesting occurs along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) in Texas. There has been limited research regarding the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nesting patterns, but studies concerning other sea turtle species suggest that certain beach geomorphology variables, such as beach slope and width, influence nest site selection. This research investigates terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle and quantifies the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nest site selection on PAIS and South Padre Island, Texas. Airborne topographic lidar data collected annually along the Texas coast from 2009 through 2012 was utilized to extract beach geomorphology characteristics, such as beach slope and width, dune height, and surface roughness, among others. The coordinates of observed Kemp's ridley nests from corresponding years were integrated with the aforementioned data in statistical models, which analyzed the influence of both general trends in geomorphology and individual morphologic variables on nest site selection. This research identified the terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley and quantified the range of geomorphic characteristics of nesting beaches. Initial results indicate that dune width, beach width, and wind speed are significant variables in relation to nest presence, using an alpha of 0.1. Higher wind speeds and narrower beaches and foredunes favor nest presence. The average nest elevation is 1.13 m above mean sea level, which corresponds to the area directly below the potential vegetation line, and the majority of nesting occurs between the elevations of 0.68 m and 1.4 m above mean sea level. The results of this study include new information regarding Kemp's ridley beach habitat and its influence on nesting patterns that could be useful for the conservation and management of the species.

Selection of nest-site habitat by interior least terns in relation to sandbar construction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Stucker, J.H.; Buhl, D.A.

2012-01-01

Federally endangered interior least terns (Sternula antillarum) nest on bare or sparsely vegetated sandbars on midcontinent river systems. Loss of nesting habitat has been implicated as a cause of population declines, and managing these habitats is a major initiative in population recovery. One such initiative involves construction of mid-channel sandbars on the Missouri River, where natural sandbar habitat has declined in quantity and quality since the late 1990s. We evaluated nest-site habitat selection by least terns on constructed and natural sandbars by comparing vegetation, substrate, and debris variables at nest sites (na =a 798) and random points (na =a 1,113) in bare or sparsely vegetated habitats. Our logistic regression models revealed that a broader suite of habitat features was important in nest-site selection on constructed than on natural sandbars. Odds ratios for habitat variables indicated that avoidance of habitat features was the dominant nest-site selection process on both sandbar types, with nesting terns being attracted to nest-site habitat features (gravel and debris) and avoiding vegetation only on constructed sandbars, and avoiding silt and leaf litter on both sandbar types. Despite the seemingly uniform nature of these habitats, our results suggest that a complex suite of habitat features influences nest-site choice by least terns. However, nest-site selection in this social, colonially nesting species may be influenced by other factors, including spatial arrangement of bare sand habitat, proximity to other least terns, and prior habitat occupancy by piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We found that nest-site selection was sensitive to subtle variation in habitat features, suggesting that rigor in maintaining habitat condition will be necessary in managing sandbars for the benefit of least terns. Further, management strategies that reduce habitat features that are avoided by least terns may be the most beneficial to nesting least terns. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Factors influencing nest survival and productivity of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.; McCloskey, Sarah E.; Fondell, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata) numbers in Alaska have fluctuated dramatically over the past 3 decades; however, the demographic processes contributing to these population dynamics are poorly understood. To examine spatial and temporal variation in productivity, we estimated breeding parameters at 5 sites in Alaska: at Cape Espenberg and the Copper River Delta we estimated nest survival, and at 3 sites within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta we estimated nest survival and productivity. Nest survival varied broadly among sites and years; annual estimates (lower, upper 95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.09 (0.03, 0.29) at Cape Espenberg in 2001 to 0.93 (0.76, 0.99) at the Copper River Delta in 2002. Annual variation among sites was not concordant, suggesting that site-scale factors had a strong influence on nest survival. Models of nest survival indicated that visits to monitor nests had a negative effect on nest daily survival probability, which if not accounted for biased nest survival strongly downward. The sensitivity of breeding Red-throated Loons to nest monitoring suggests other sources of disturbance that cause incubating birds to flush from their nests may also reduce nest survival. Nest daily survival probability at the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta was negatively associated with an annual index of fox occurrence. Survival through the incubation and chick-rearing periods on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.09 (0.001, 0.493) to 0.50 (0.04, 0.77). Daily survival probability during the chick-rearing period was lower for chicks that had a sibling in 2 of 3 years, consistent with the hypothesis that food availability was limited. Estimates of annual productivity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.17 to 1.0 chicks per pair. Productivity was not sufficient to maintain population stability in 2 of 3 years, indicating that nest depredation by foxes and poor foraging conditions during chick rearing can have important effects on productivity.

Selection of nest-site habitat by interior least terns in relation to sandbar construction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, Mark H.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Buhl, Deborah A.

2012-01-01

Federally endangered interior least terns (Sternula antillarum) nest on bare or sparsely vegetated sandbars on midcontinent river systems. Loss of nesting habitat has been implicated as a cause of population declines, and managing these habitats is a major initiative in population recovery. One such initiative involves construction of mid-channel sandbars on the Missouri River, where natural sandbar habitat has declined in quantity and quality since the late 1990s. We evaluated nest-site habitat selection by least terns on constructed and natural sandbars by comparing vegetation, substrate, and debris variables at nest sites (n = 798) and random points (n = 1,113) in bare or sparsely vegetated habitats. Our logistic regression models revealed that a broader suite of habitat features was important in nest-site selection on constructed than on natural sandbars. Odds ratios for habitat variables indicated that avoidance of habitat features was the dominant nest-site selection process on both sandbar types, with nesting terns being attracted to nest-site habitat features (gravel and debris) and avoiding vegetation only on constructed sandbars, and avoiding silt and leaf litter on both sandbar types. Despite the seemingly uniform nature of these habitats, our results suggest that a complex suite of habitat features influences nest-site choice by least terns. However, nest-site selection in this social, colonially nesting species may be influenced by other factors, including spatial arrangement of bare sand habitat, proximity to other least terns, and prior habitat occupancy by piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We found that nest-site selection was sensitive to subtle variation in habitat features, suggesting that rigor in maintaining habitat condition will be necessary in managing sandbars for the benefit of least terns. Further, management strategies that reduce habitat features that are avoided by least terns may be the most beneficial to nesting least terns.

Three-dimensional prediction of soil physical, chemical, and hydrological properties in a forested catchment of the Santa Catalina CZO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, C.; Holleran, M.; Lybrand, R. A.; Rasmussen, C.

2014-12-01

Understanding critical zone evolution and function requires an accurate assessment of local soil properties. Two-dimensional (2D) digital soil mapping provides a general assessment of soil characteristics across a sampled landscape, but lacks the ability to predict soil properties with depth. The utilization of mass-preserving spline functions enable the extrapolation of soil properties with depth, extending predictive functions to three-dimensions (3D). The present study was completed in the Marshall Gulch (MG) catchment, located in the Santa Catalina Mountains, 30 km northwest of Tucson, Arizona, as part of the Santa Catalina-Jemez Mountains Critical Zone Observatory. Twenty-four soil pits were excavated and described following standard procedures. Mass-preserving splines were used to extrapolate mass carbon (kg C m-2); percent clay, silt, and sand (%); sodium mass flux (kg Na m-2); and pH for 24 sampled soil pits in 1-cm depth increments. Saturated volumetric water content (θs) and volumetric water content at 10 kPa (θ10) were predicted using ROSETTA and established empirical relationships. The described profiles were all sampled to differing depths; to compensate for the unevenness of the profile descriptions, the soil depths were standardized from 0.0 to 1.0 and then split into five equal standard depth sections. A logit-transformation was used to normalize the target variables. Step-wise regressions were calculated using available environmental covariates to predict the properties of each variable across the catchment in each depth section, and interpolated model residuals added back to the predicted layers to generate the final soil maps. Logit-transformed R2 for the predictive functions varied widely, ranging from 0.20 to 0.79, with logit-transformed RMSE ranging from 0.15 to 2.77. The MG catchment was further classified into clusters with similar properties based on the environmental covariates, and representative depth functions for each target variable in each cluster calculated. Mass-preserving splines combined with stepwise regressions are an effective tool for predicting soil physical, chemical, and hydrological properties with depth, enhancing our understanding of the critical zone.

The ethological trap: functional and numerical responses of highly efficient invasive predators driving prey extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, Ricky-John; Van Dyke, James U; Thompson, Michael B

2016-10-01

Ecological traps are threats to organisms, and exist in a range of biological systems. A subset of ecological trap theory is the "ethological trap," whereby behaviors canalized by past natural selection become traps when environments change rapidly. Invasive predators are major threats to imperiled species and their ability to exploit canalized behaviors of naive prey is particularly important for the establishment of the predator and the decline of the native prey. Our study uses ecological theory to demonstrate that invasive predator controls require shifts in management priorities. Total predation rate (i.e., total response) is the product of both the functional response and numerical response of predators to prey. Functional responses are the changes in the rate of prey consumption by individual predators, relative to prey abundance. Numerical responses are the aggregative rates of prey consumption by all predators relative to prey density, which change with predator density via reproduction or migration, in response to changes in prey density. Traditional invasive predator management methods focus on reducing predator populations, and thus manage for numerical responses. These management efforts fail to manage for functional responses, and may not eliminate impacts of highly efficient individual predators. We explore this problem by modeling the impacts of functional and numerical responses of invasive foxes depredating imperiled Australian turtle nests. Foxes exhibit exceptionally efficient functional responses. A single fox can destroy >95% of turtle nests in a nesting area, which eliminates juvenile recruitment. In this case, the ethological trap is the "Arribada" nesting strategy, an emergent behavior whereby most turtles in a population nest simultaneously in the same nesting grounds. Our models show that Arribada nesting events do not oversaturate foxes, and small numbers of foxes depredate all of the nests in a given Arribada. Widely scattering nests may reduce fox predation rates, but the long generation times of turtles combined with their rapid recent decline suggests that evolutionary responses in nesting strategy may be unlikely. Our study demonstrates that reducing populations of highly efficient invasive predators is insufficient for preserving native prey species. Instead, management must reduce individual predator efficiency, independent of reducing predator population size. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

PubMed

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jointly modeling longitudinal proportional data and survival times with an application to the quality of life data in a breast cancer trial.

PubMed

Song, Hui; Peng, Yingwei; Tu, Dongsheng

2017-04-01

Motivated by the joint analysis of longitudinal quality of life data and recurrence free survival times from a cancer clinical trial, we present in this paper two approaches to jointly model the longitudinal proportional measurements, which are confined in a finite interval, and survival data. Both approaches assume a proportional hazards model for the survival times. For the longitudinal component, the first approach applies the classical linear mixed model to logit transformed responses, while the second approach directly models the responses using a simplex distribution. A semiparametric method based on a penalized joint likelihood generated by the Laplace approximation is derived to fit the joint model defined by the second approach. The proposed procedures are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to the analysis of breast cancer data motivated this research.

Toward Skillful Subseasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricanes with regionally-refined GFDL HiRAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, K.; Harris, L.; Chen, J. H.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

Skillful subseasonal prediction of hurricane activity (from two weeks to less than a season) is important for early preparedness and reducing the hurricane damage in coastal regions. In this study, we will present evaluations of the performance of GFDL HiRAM (High-Resolution Atmospheric Model) for the simulation and prediction of the North Atlantic hurricane activity on the sub-seasonal time scale. A series of sub-seasonal (30-day duration) retrospective predictions were performed over the years 2000-2014 using two configurations of HiRAM: a) global uniform 25km-resolution grid and b) two-way nested grid with a 8km-resolution nest over North Atlantic. The analysis of hurricane structure from the two sets of simulations indicates the two-way-nesting method is an efficient way to improve the representation of hurricanes in global models: the two-way nested configuration produces realistic hurricane inner-core size and structure, which leads to improved lifetime maximum intensity distribution. Both configurations show very promising performance in the subseasonal hurricane genesis prediction, but the two-way nested configuration shows better performance in the prediction of major hurricane (Categories 3-5) activity because of the improved intensity simulation. We will also present the analysis of how the phase and magnitude of MJO, as well as the initial SST anomaly affect the model's prediction skill.

Selection of anthropogenic features and vegetation characteristics by nesting Common Ravens in the sagebrush ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Kristy B.; Coates, Peter S.; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

Common Raven (Corvus corax) numbers and distribution are increasing throughout the sagebrush steppe, influencing avian communities in complex ways. Anthropogenic structures are thought to increase raven populations by providing food and nesting subsidies, which is cause for concern because ravens are important nest predators of sensitive species, including Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). During 2007–2009, we located raven nests in southeastern Idaho and conducted a resource selection analysis. We measured variables at multiple spatial scales for 72 unique nest locations, including landscape-level vegetation characteristics and anthropogenic structures. Using generalized linear mixed models and an information-theoretic approach, we found a 31% decrease in the odds of nesting by ravens for every 1 km increase in distance away from a transmission line. Furthermore, a 100-m increase in distance away from the edge of two different land cover types decreased the odds of nesting by 20%, and an increase in the amount of edge by 1 km within an area of 102.1 ha centered on the nest increased the odds of nesting by 49%. A post hoc analysis revealed that ravens were most likely to nest near edges of adjoining big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and land cover types that were associated with direct human disturbance or fire. These findings contribute to our understanding of raven expansion into rural environments and could be used to make better-informed conservation decisions, especially in the face of increasing renewable energy development.

Application of growing nested Petri nets for modeling robotic systems operating under risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorokin, E. V.; Senkov, A. V.

2017-10-01

The paper studies the peculiarities of modeling robotic systems engaged in mining. Existing modeling mechanisms are considered, which are based on nested Petri nets, and a new formalism of growing Petri nets is presented that allows modeling robotic systems operating under risk. Modeling is provided both for the regular operation mode and for non-standard modes in which individual elements of the system can perform uncharacteristic functions. The example shows growing Petri nets that are used for modeling extraction of flat coal seams by a robotic system consisting of several different-type autonomous robots.

Do small swarms have an advantage when house hunting? The effect of swarm size on nest-site selection by Apis mellifera.

PubMed

Schaerf, T M; Makinson, J C; Myerscough, M R; Beekman, M

2013-10-06

Reproductive swarms of honeybees are faced with the problem of finding a good site to establish a new colony. We examined the potential effects of swarm size on the quality of nest-site choice through a combination of modelling and field experiments. We used an individual-based model to examine the effects of swarm size on decision accuracy under the assumption that the number of bees actively involved in the decision-making process (scouts) is an increasing function of swarm size. We found that the ability of a swarm to choose the best of two nest sites decreases as swarm size increases when there is some time-lag between discovering the sites, consistent with Janson & Beekman (Janson & Beekman 2007 Proceedings of European Conference on Complex Systems, pp. 204-211.). However, when simulated swarms were faced with a realistic problem of choosing between many nest sites discoverable at all times, larger swarms were more accurate in their decisions than smaller swarms owing to their ability to discover nest sites more rapidly. Our experimental fieldwork showed that large swarms invest a larger number of scouts into the decision-making process than smaller swarms. Preliminary analysis of waggle dances from experimental swarms also suggested that large swarms could indeed discover and advertise nest sites at a faster rate than small swarms.

Do small swarms have an advantage when house hunting? The effect of swarm size on nest-site selection by Apis mellifera

PubMed Central

Schaerf, T. M.; Makinson, J. C.; Myerscough, M. R.; Beekman, M.

2013-01-01

Reproductive swarms of honeybees are faced with the problem of finding a good site to establish a new colony. We examined the potential effects of swarm size on the quality of nest-site choice through a combination of modelling and field experiments. We used an individual-based model to examine the effects of swarm size on decision accuracy under the assumption that the number of bees actively involved in the decision-making process (scouts) is an increasing function of swarm size. We found that the ability of a swarm to choose the best of two nest sites decreases as swarm size increases when there is some time-lag between discovering the sites, consistent with Janson & Beekman (Janson & Beekman 2007 Proceedings of European Conference on Complex Systems, pp. 204–211.). However, when simulated swarms were faced with a realistic problem of choosing between many nest sites discoverable at all times, larger swarms were more accurate in their decisions than smaller swarms owing to their ability to discover nest sites more rapidly. Our experimental fieldwork showed that large swarms invest a larger number of scouts into the decision-making process than smaller swarms. Preliminary analysis of waggle dances from experimental swarms also suggested that large swarms could indeed discover and advertise nest sites at a faster rate than small swarms. PMID:23904590

PCP-induced deficits in murine nest building activity: employment of an ethological rodent behavior to mimic negative-like symptoms of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Pedersen, Christian Spang; Sørensen, Dorte Bratbo; Parachikova, Anna I; Plath, Niels

2014-10-15

Schizophrenia is a severe psychiatric disorder characterized by three symptom domains, positive (hallucinations, obsession), negative (social withdrawal, apathy, self-neglect) and cognitive (impairment in attention, memory and executive function). Whereas current medication ameliorates positive symptomatology, negative symptoms as well as cognitive dysfunctions remain untreated. The development of improved therapies for negative symptoms has proven particularly difficult, in part due to the inability of mimicking these in rodents. Here, we address the predictive validity of combining an ethologically well preserved behavior in rodents, namely nest building activity, with an established animal model of schizophrenia, the sub-chronic PCP model, for negative symptoms. Decline in rodent nesting activity has been suggested to mirror domains of negative symptoms of schizophrenia, including social withdrawal, anhedonia and self-neglect, whereas repeated treatment with the NMDAR antagonist PCP induces and exacerbates schizophrenia-like symptoms in rodents and human subjects. Using a back-translational approach of pharmacological validation, we tested the effects of two agents targeting the nicotinic α7 receptor (EVP-6124 and TC-5619) that were reported to exert some beneficial effect on negative symptoms in schizophrenic patients. Sub-chronic PCP treatment resulted in a significant nest building deficit in mice and treatment with EVP-6124 and TC-5619 reversed this PCP-induced deficit. In contrast, the atypical antipsychotic drug risperidone remained ineffective in this assay. In addition, EVP-6124, TC-5619 and risperidone were tested in the Social Interaction Test (SIT), an assay suggested to address negative-like symptoms. Results obtained in SIT were comparable to results in the nest building test (NEST). Based on these findings, we propose nest building in combination with the sub-chronic PCP model as a novel approach to assess negative-like symptoms of schizophrenia in rodents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Therapy preferences of patients with lung and colon cancer: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Schmidt, Katharina; Damm, Kathrin; Vogel, Arndt; Golpon, Heiko; Manns, Michael P; Welte, Tobias; Graf von der Schulenburg, J-Matthias

2017-01-01

There is increasing interest in studies that examine patient preferences to measure health-related outcomes. Understanding patients' preferences can improve the treatment process and is particularly relevant for oncology. In this study, we aimed to identify the subgroup-specific treatment preferences of German patients with lung cancer (LC) or colorectal cancer (CRC). Six discrete choice experiment (DCE) attributes were established on the basis of a systematic literature review and qualitative interviews. The DCE analyses comprised generalized linear mixed-effects model and latent class mixed logit model. The study cohort comprised 310 patients (194 with LC, 108 with CRC, 8 with both types of cancer) with a median age of 63 (SD =10.66) years. The generalized linear mixed-effects model showed a significant ( P <0.05) degree of association for all of the tested attributes. "Strongly increased life expectancy" was the attribute given the greatest weight by all patient groups. Using latent class mixed logit model analysis, we identified three classes of patients. Patients who were better informed tended to prefer a more balanced relationship between length and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) than those who were less informed. Class 2 (LC patients with low HRQoL who had undergone surgery) gave a very strong weighting to increased length of life. We deduced from Class 3 patients that those with a relatively good life expectancy (CRC compared with LC) gave a greater weight to moderate effects on HRQoL than to a longer life. Overall survival was the most important attribute of therapy for patients with LC or CRC. Differences in treatment preferences between subgroups should be considered in regard to treatment and development of guidelines. Patients' preferences were not affected by sex or age, but were affected by the cancer type, HRQoL, surgery status, and the main source of information on the disease.

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: A comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Canada and the United States (2002–2005)

PubMed Central

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Li, Qiang

2014-01-01

Background Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This paper investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes vs. premium brands. Objective To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers’ choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Methods Using data from ITC Surveys in Canada and the United States, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socio-economic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. Findings An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the United States. Conclusion The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the United States during 2002–2005, and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands—which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax—may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes. PMID:23986408

An association between neighbourhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry

2015-05-01

This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding 5%. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV-positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each statistical enumeration area, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behaviour mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behaviour variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting eleven plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behaviour differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioural mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention.

An association between neighborhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Brodish, Paul Henry

2016-01-01

Summary This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus, using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding five percent. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each SEA, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behavior mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behavior variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting 11 plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behavior differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioral mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention PMID:24406021

Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Aaron Raymond

This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust, generalized moments estimation of a double logarithmic first-order spatial autoregressive error model (inverse distance weights with spatial dependence up to 1500m) indicate that the implicit cost of damages to forested wetlands caused by channelization equaled -$5,438 ha-1. Collectively, the results of this dissertation provide economic measures of the damages to and benefits of environmental assets, help private landowners and policy makers identify the amenity attributes preferred by the public, and improve the management of natural resources.

Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

2018-05-01

The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

Tropospheric carbon monoxide over the Pacific during HIPPO: two-way coupled simulation of GEOS-Chem and its multiple nested models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Kuang, Y.; Yang, D.; Zhang, L.

2014-12-01

Global chemical transport models (CTMs) are used extensively to study air pollution and transport at a global scale. These models are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions that do not allow for a detailed representation of small-scale nonlinear processes over the pollutant source regions. Here we couple the global GEOS-Chem CTM and its three high-resolution nested models to simulate the tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) over the Pacific Ocean during five High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns between 2009 and 2011. We develop a two-way coupler, the PeKing University CouPLer (PKUCPL), allowing for the exchange and interaction of chemical constituents between the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and the three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America, and Europe. The coupler obtains nested model results to modify the global model simulation within the respective nested domains, and simultaneously acquires global model results to provide lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the nested models. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation results in enhanced CO concentrations in the nested domains. Sensitivity tests suggest the enhancement to be a result of improved representation of the spatial distributions of CO, nitrogen oxides, and non-methane volatile organic compounds, the meteorological dependence of natural emissions, and other resolution-dependent processes. The relatively long lifetime of CO allows for the enhancement to be accumulated and carried across the globe. We found that the two-way coupled simulation increased the global tropospheric mean CO concentrations in 2009 by 10.4%, with a greater enhancement at 13.3% in the Northern Hemisphere. Coincidently, the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical (OH) was reduced by 4.2%, resulting in a 4.2% enhancement in the methyl chloroform lifetime (MCF; via reaction with tropospheric OH). The resulting CO and OH contents and MCF lifetime are closer to observation-based estimates. Both the global and the two-way coupled models capture the general spatiotemporal patterns of HIPPO CO over the Pacific. The two-way coupled simulation is much closer to HIPPO CO, with a mean bias of 1.1 ppb (1.4%) below 9 km compared to the bias at -7.2 ppb (-9.2%) for the global model alone. The improvement is most apparent over the North Pacific. Our test simulations show that the global model alone could resemble the two-way coupled simulation (especially below 4 km) by increasing its global CO emissions by 15% for HIPPO-1 and HIPPO-3, by 25% for HIPPO-2 and HIPPO-4, and by 35% for HIPPO-5. This has important implications for using the global model alone to constrain CO emissions. Thus, the two-way coupled simulation is a significantly improved model tool for studying the global impacts of air pollutants from major anthropogenic source regions.

Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming.

PubMed

Telemeco, Rory S; Fletcher, Brooke; Levy, Ofir; Riley, Angela; Rodriguez-Sanchez, Yesenia; Smith, Colton; Teague, Collin; Waters, Amanda; Angilletta, Michael J; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-03-01

Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

2018-03-01

Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

Northern bobwhite breeding season ecology on a reclaimed surface mine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooke, Jarred M.; Tanner, Evan P.; Peters, David C.; Tanner, Ashley M.; Harper, Craig A.; Keyser, Patrick D.; Clark, Joseph D.; Morgan, John J.

2017-01-01

Surface coal mining and subsequent reclamation of surface mines have converted large forest areas into early successional vegetative communities in the eastern United States. This reclamation can provide a novel opportunity to conserve northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). We evaluated the influence of habitat management activities on nest survival, nest-site selection, and brood resource selection on managed and unmanaged units of a reclaimed surface mine, Peabody Wildlife Management Area (Peabody), in west-central Kentucky, USA, from 2010 to 2013. We compared resource selection, using discrete-choice analysis, and nest survival, using the nest survival model in Program MARK, between managed and unmanaged units of Peabody at 2 spatial scales: the composition and configuration of vegetation types (i.e., macrohabitat) and vegetation characteristics at nest sites and brood locations (i.e., microhabitat). On managed sites, we also investigated resource selection relative to a number of different treatments (e.g., herbicide, disking, prescribed fire). We found no evidence that nest-site selection was influenced by macrohabitat variables, but bobwhite selected nest sites in areas with greater litter depth than was available at random sites. On managed units, bobwhite were more likely to nest where herbicide was applied to reduce sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata) compared with areas untreated with herbicide. Daily nest survival was not influenced by habitat characteristics or by habitat management but was influenced by nest age and the interaction of nest initiation date and nest age. Daily nest survival was greater for older nests occurring early in the breeding season (0.99, SE < 0.01) but was lower for older nests occurring later in the season (0.08, SE = 0.13). Brood resource selection was not influenced by macrohabitat or microhabitat variables we measured, but broods on managed units selected areas treated with herbicide to control sericea lespedeza and were located closer to firebreaks and disked native-warm season grass stands than would be expected at random. Our results suggest the vegetation at Peabody was sufficient without manipulation to support nesting and brood-rearing northern bobwhite at a low level, but habitat management practices improved vegetation for nesting and brood-rearing resource selection. Reproductive rates (e.g., nest survival and re-nesting rates) at Peabody were lower than reported in other studies, which may be related to nutritional deficiencies caused by the abundance of sericea lespedeza. On reclaimed mine lands dominated by sericea lespedeza, we suggest continuing practices such as disking and herbicide application that are targeted at reducing sericea lespedeza to improve the vegetation for nesting and brood-rearing bobwhite.

A new bee species that excavates sandstone nests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many wonder why animals act in seemingly injurious ways. Understanding the behavior of pollinators such as bees is especially important because of the necessary ecosystem service they provide. The new species Anthophora pueblo, discovered excavating sandstone nests, provides a model system for addre...

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 11, No. 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); EspiritoSanto, Jr. Respicio (Editor)

2006-01-01

The following topics were covered: How Do Airlines Perceive That Strategic Alliances Affect Their Individual Branding?; Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model; Consequences of Feeder Delays for the Success of A380 Operations; Inside the Mechanics of Network Development: How Competition and Strategy Reorganize European Air Traffic; The Opportunities and Threats of Turning Airports into Hubs; Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using System Safety Tools; A Simulation Based Approach for Contingency Planning for Aircraft Turnaround Activities in Airline Hubs; and The Council on Aviation Accreditation: Part One- Historical Foundation.

Willingness to pay for midwife-endorsed product: An Australian best-worst study.

PubMed

Lahtinen, Ville; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Adamsen, Jannie Mia

2016-01-01

This article examined the impact of midwife endorsement on stated choice preferences in one of the highest volume baby care product categories, diapers. An online survey was conducted testing 12 alternatives of which six were midwife endorsed. A total of 215 responses were analyzed using best-worst and multinomial logit modeling. Results indicate that package size, price, and brand are more sensitive predictors of stated choice preferences than midwife endorsement. Respondents were willing to pay 2.3% more for a diaper that was endorsed by midwives. These findings suggest that midwife endorsement should be pursued by health marketers.

Parent-Child Communication and Marijuana Initiation: Evidence Using Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Nonnemaker, James M.; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C.; Dench, Daniel

2012-01-01

This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or—in the case of youth reports of communication—potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). PMID:22958867

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790–19001

PubMed Central

Hacker, J. David

2010-01-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900–02 rural and 1900–02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends. PMID:20563225

A Method to Represent Heterogeneous Materials for Rapid Prototyping: The Matryoshka Approach.

PubMed

Lei, Shuangyan; Frank, Matthew C; Anderson, Donald D; Brown, Thomas D

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for representing heterogeneous materials using nested STL shells, based, in particular, on the density distributions of human bones. Nested STL shells, called Matryoshka models, are described, based on their namesake Russian nesting dolls. In this approach, polygonal models, such as STL shells, are "stacked" inside one another to represent different material regions. The Matryoshka model addresses the challenge of representing different densities and different types of bone when reverse engineering from medical images. The Matryoshka model is generated via an iterative process of thresholding the Hounsfield Unit (HU) data using computed tomography (CT), thereby delineating regions of progressively increasing bone density. These nested shells can represent regions starting with the medullary (bone marrow) canal, up through and including the outer surface of the bone. The Matryoshka approach introduced can be used to generate accurate models of heterogeneous materials in an automated fashion, avoiding the challenge of hand-creating an assembly model for input to multi-material additive or subtractive manufacturing. This paper presents a new method for describing heterogeneous materials: in this case, the density distribution in a human bone. The authors show how the Matryoshka model can be used to plan harvesting locations for creating custom rapid allograft bone implants from donor bone. An implementation of a proposed harvesting method is demonstrated, followed by a case study using subtractive rapid prototyping to harvest a bone implant from a human tibia surrogate.

Main Determinants of Catastrophic Health Expenditures: A Bayesian Logit Approach on Iranian Household Survey Data (2010)

PubMed Central

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Fazaeli, Amir Abbas; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Background: During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. Objectives: The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. Patients and Methods: In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Results: Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. Conclusions: About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems. PMID:25946936

Main determinants of catastrophic health expenditures: a Bayesian logit approach on Iranian household survey data (2010).

PubMed

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Abbas Fazaeli, Amir; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-26

During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems.

The associations between self-reported sleep duration and adolescent health outcomes: what is the role of time spent on Internet use?

PubMed

Do, Young Kyung; Shin, Eunhae; Bautista, Mary Ann; Foo, Kelvin

2013-02-01

This study aimed to examine the associations of self-reported sleep duration with adolescent health outcomes, taking into account time spent on Internet use. We used data from the 2008-2009 Korea Youth Behavioral Risk Factor Survey, a cross-sectional online survey of middle and high school students aged 13-18years in South Korea (N=136,589) to examine the associations of self-reported sleep duration with four mental and physical health measures, e.g. self-report of depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, weight status, and self-rated health. The binary logit and generalized ordered logit models controlled for time spent on Internet use for non-study purposes and other factors. Shorter self-reported sleep duration was associated with a higher likelihood of reporting depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, and overweight or obese status, and a lower likelihood of reporting better self-rated health, even after accounting for time spent on Internet use. Excessive Internet use was found to be an independent risk factor for these outcomes. Among in-school adolescents in South Korea, shorter sleep duration and excessive Internet use are independently and additively associated with multiple indicators of adverse health status. Excessive Internet use may have not only direct adverse health consequences, but also have indirect negative effects through sleep deprivation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

PubMed

Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

2013-01-01

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Sensitivity studies of high-resolution RegCM3 simulations of precipitation over the European Alps: the effect of lateral boundary conditions and domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, Imran; Formayer, Herbert

2016-11-01

A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75∘, the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5∘, and finally the 2.5∘ NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5∘. Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125∘ ERA40 and 0.7∘ ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.

Using full-cohort data in nested case-control and case-cohort studies by multiple imputation.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; White, Ian R

2013-10-15

In many large prospective cohorts, expensive exposure measurements cannot be obtained for all individuals. Exposure-disease association studies are therefore often based on nested case-control or case-cohort studies in which complete information is obtained only for sampled individuals. However, in the full cohort, there may be a large amount of information on cheaply available covariates and possibly a surrogate of the main exposure(s), which typically goes unused. We view the nested case-control or case-cohort study plus the remainder of the cohort as a full-cohort study with missing data. Hence, we propose using multiple imputation (MI) to utilise information in the full cohort when data from the sub-studies are analysed. We use the fully observed data to fit the imputation models. We consider using approximate imputation models and also using rejection sampling to draw imputed values from the true distribution of the missing values given the observed data. Simulation studies show that using MI to utilise full-cohort information in the analysis of nested case-control and case-cohort studies can result in important gains in efficiency, particularly when a surrogate of the main exposure is available in the full cohort. In simulations, this method outperforms counter-matching in nested case-control studies and a weighted analysis for case-cohort studies, both of which use some full-cohort information. Approximate imputation models perform well except when there are interactions or non-linear terms in the outcome model, where imputation using rejection sampling works well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fragmentation of nest and foraging habitat affects time budgets of solitary bees, their fitness and pollination services, depending on traits: Results from an individual-based model

PubMed Central

Settele, Josef; Dormann, Carsten F.

2018-01-01

Solitary bees are important but declining wild pollinators. During daily foraging in agricultural landscapes, they encounter a mosaic of patches with nest and foraging habitat and unsuitable matrix. It is insufficiently clear how spatial allocation of nesting and foraging resources and foraging traits of bees affect their daily foraging performance. We investigated potential brood cell construction (as proxy of fitness), number of visited flowers, foraging habitat visitation and foraging distance (pollination proxies) with the model SOLBEE (simulating pollen transport by solitary bees, tested and validated in an earlier study), for landscapes varying in landscape fragmentation and spatial allocation of nesting and foraging resources. Simulated bees varied in body size and nesting preference. We aimed to understand effects of landscape fragmentation and bee traits on bee fitness and the pollination services bees provide, as well as interactions between them, and the general consequences it has to our understanding of the system. This broad scope gives multiple key results. 1) Body size determines fitness more than landscape fragmentation, with large bees building fewer brood cells. High pollen requirements for large bees and the related high time budgets for visiting many flowers may not compensate for faster flight speeds and short handling times on flowers, giving them overall a disadvantage compared to small bees. 2) Nest preference does affect distribution of bees over the landscape, with cavity-nesting bees being restricted to nesting along field edges, which inevitably leads to performance reductions. Fragmentation mitigates this for cavity-nesting bees through increased edge habitat. 3) Landscape fragmentation alone had a relatively small effect on all responses. Instead, the local ratio of nest to foraging habitat affected bee fitness positively through reduced local competition. The spatial coverage of pollination increases steeply in response to this ratio for all bee sizes. The nest to foraging habitat ratio, a strong habitat proxy incorporating fragmentation could be a promising and practical measure for comparing landscape suitability for pollinators. 4) The number of flower visits was hardly affected by resource allocation, but predominantly by bee size. 5) In landscapes with the highest visitation coverage, bees flew least far, suggesting that these pollination proxies are subject to a trade-off between either longer pollen transport distances or a better pollination coverage, linked to how nests are distributed over the landscape rather than being affected by bee size. PMID:29444076

Fragmentation of nest and foraging habitat affects time budgets of solitary bees, their fitness and pollination services, depending on traits: Results from an individual-based model.

PubMed

Everaars, Jeroen; Settele, Josef; Dormann, Carsten F

2018-01-01

Solitary bees are important but declining wild pollinators. During daily foraging in agricultural landscapes, they encounter a mosaic of patches with nest and foraging habitat and unsuitable matrix. It is insufficiently clear how spatial allocation of nesting and foraging resources and foraging traits of bees affect their daily foraging performance. We investigated potential brood cell construction (as proxy of fitness), number of visited flowers, foraging habitat visitation and foraging distance (pollination proxies) with the model SOLBEE (simulating pollen transport by solitary bees, tested and validated in an earlier study), for landscapes varying in landscape fragmentation and spatial allocation of nesting and foraging resources. Simulated bees varied in body size and nesting preference. We aimed to understand effects of landscape fragmentation and bee traits on bee fitness and the pollination services bees provide, as well as interactions between them, and the general consequences it has to our understanding of the system. This broad scope gives multiple key results. 1) Body size determines fitness more than landscape fragmentation, with large bees building fewer brood cells. High pollen requirements for large bees and the related high time budgets for visiting many flowers may not compensate for faster flight speeds and short handling times on flowers, giving them overall a disadvantage compared to small bees. 2) Nest preference does affect distribution of bees over the landscape, with cavity-nesting bees being restricted to nesting along field edges, which inevitably leads to performance reductions. Fragmentation mitigates this for cavity-nesting bees through increased edge habitat. 3) Landscape fragmentation alone had a relatively small effect on all responses. Instead, the local ratio of nest to foraging habitat affected bee fitness positively through reduced local competition. The spatial coverage of pollination increases steeply in response to this ratio for all bee sizes. The nest to foraging habitat ratio, a strong habitat proxy incorporating fragmentation could be a promising and practical measure for comparing landscape suitability for pollinators. 4) The number of flower visits was hardly affected by resource allocation, but predominantly by bee size. 5) In landscapes with the highest visitation coverage, bees flew least far, suggesting that these pollination proxies are subject to a trade-off between either longer pollen transport distances or a better pollination coverage, linked to how nests are distributed over the landscape rather than being affected by bee size.

Sandhill crane abundance and nesting ecology at Grays Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Henry, A.R.; Ball, I.J.

2007-01-01

We examined population size and factors influencing nest survival of greater sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) at Grays Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Idaho, USA, during 1997-2000. Average local population of cranes from late April to early May, 1998-2000, was 735 cranes, 34% higher than that reported for May 1970-1971. We estimated 228 (SE = 30) nests in the basin core (excluding renests), 14% higher than a 1971 estimate. Apparent nest success in our study (x?? = 60%, n = 519 nests) was lower than reported for Grays Lake 30-50 years earlier. Daily survival rates (DSRs) of all nests averaged 0.9707 (41.2%). The best model explaining nest survival included year and water depth and their interaction. Nest survival was highest (DSR = 0.9827) in 1998 compared with other years (0.9698-0.9707). Nest survival changed little relative to water depth in 1998, when flooding was extensive and alternative prey (microtines) irrupted, but declined markedly with lower water levels in 2000, the driest year studied. Hypotheses relating nest survival to vegetation height, land use (idle, summer grazing, fall grazing), and date were not supported. In a before-after-control-impact design using 12 experimental fields, nest survival differed among years but not among management treatments (idle, fall graze, fall burn, and summer-graze-idle rotation), nor was there an interaction between year and treatments. However, DSRs in fall-burn fields declined from 0.9781 in 1997-1998 to 0.9503 in 1999-2000 (posttreatment). Changes in the predator community have likely contributed to declines in nest success since the 1950s and 1970s. Our results did not support earlier concerns about effects of habitat management practices on crane productivity. Nest survival could best be enhanced by managing spring water levels. Managers should continue censuses during late April to evaluate long-term relationships to habitat conditions and management.

Post-Wildfire Potential for Carbon and Nitrogen Sequestration in the Southwestern United States in Restored Ephemeral and Intermittent Stream Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callegary, J. B.; Norman, L.; Eastoe, C. J.; Sankey, J. B.; Youberg, A.

2016-12-01

The Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is the most endangered sea turtle in the world, largely due to the limited geographic range of its nesting habitat. In the U.S., the majority of nesting occurs along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) in Texas. There has been limited research regarding the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nesting patterns, but studies concerning other sea turtle species suggest that certain beach geomorphology variables, such as beach slope and width, influence nest site selection. This research investigates terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle and quantifies the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nest site selection on PAIS and South Padre Island, Texas. Airborne topographic lidar data collected annually along the Texas coast from 2009 through 2012 was utilized to extract beach geomorphology characteristics, such as beach slope and width, dune height, and surface roughness, among others. The coordinates of observed Kemp's ridley nests from corresponding years were integrated with the aforementioned data in statistical models, which analyzed the influence of both general trends in geomorphology and individual morphologic variables on nest site selection. This research identified the terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley and quantified the range of geomorphic characteristics of nesting beaches. Initial results indicate that dune width, beach width, and wind speed are significant variables in relation to nest presence, using an alpha of 0.1. Higher wind speeds and narrower beaches and foredunes favor nest presence. The average nest elevation is 1.13 m above mean sea level, which corresponds to the area directly below the potential vegetation line, and the majority of nesting occurs between the elevations of 0.68 m and 1.4 m above mean sea level. The results of this study include new information regarding Kemp's ridley beach habitat and its influence on nesting patterns that could be useful for the conservation and management of the species.

Nested generalized linear mixed model with ordinal response: Simulation and application on poverty data in Java Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyaningsih, Yekti; Saefuddin, Asep; Notodiputro, Khairil A.; Wigena, Aji H.

2012-05-01

The objective of this research is to build a nested generalized linear mixed model using an ordinal response variable with some covariates. There are three main jobs in this paper, i.e. parameters estimation procedure, simulation, and implementation of the model for the real data. At the part of parameters estimation procedure, concepts of threshold, nested random effect, and computational algorithm are described. The simulations data are built for 3 conditions to know the effect of different parameter values of random effect distributions. The last job is the implementation of the model for the data about poverty in 9 districts of Java Island. The districts are Kuningan, Karawang, and Majalengka chose randomly in West Java; Temanggung, Boyolali, and Cilacap from Central Java; and Blitar, Ngawi, and Jember from East Java. The covariates in this model are province, number of bad nutrition cases, number of farmer families, and number of health personnel. In this modeling, all covariates are grouped as ordinal scale. Unit observation in this research is sub-district (kecamatan) nested in district, and districts (kabupaten) are nested in province. For the result of simulation, ARB (Absolute Relative Bias) and RRMSE (Relative Root of mean square errors) scale is used. They show that prov parameters have the highest bias, but more stable RRMSE in all conditions. The simulation design needs to be improved by adding other condition, such as higher correlation between covariates. Furthermore, as the result of the model implementation for the data, only number of farmer family and number of medical personnel have significant contributions to the level of poverty in Central Java and East Java province, and only district 2 (Karawang) of province 1 (West Java) has different random effect from the others. The source of the data is PODES (Potensi Desa) 2008 from BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik).

Exact solution for the quench dynamics of a nested integrable system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestyán, Márton; Bertini, Bruno; Piroli, Lorenzo; Calabrese, Pasquale

2017-08-01

Integrable models provide an exact description for a wide variety of physical phenomena. For example nested integrable systems contain different species of interacting particles with a rich phenomenology in their collective behavior, which is the origin of the unconventional phenomenon of spin-charge separation. So far, however, most of the theoretical work in the study of non-equilibrium dynamics of integrable systems has focussed on models with an elementary (i.e. not nested) Bethe ansatz. In this work we explicitly investigate quantum quenches in nested integrable systems, by generalizing the application of the quench action approach. Specifically, we consider the spin-1 Lai-Sutherland model, described, in the thermodynamic limit, by the theory of two different species of Bethe-ansatz particles, each one forming an infinite number of bound states. We focus on the situation where the quench dynamics starts from a simple matrix product state for which the overlaps with the eigenstates of the Hamiltonian are known. We fully characterize the post-quench steady state and perform several consistency checks for the validity of our results. Finally, we provide predictions for the propagation of entanglement and mutual information after the quench, which can be used as signature of the quasi-particle content of the model.

Performance of the likelihood ratio difference (G2 Diff) test for detecting unidimensionality in applications of the multidimensional Rasch model.

PubMed

Harrell-Williams, Leigh; Wolfe, Edward W

2014-01-01

Previous research has investigated the influence of sample size, model misspecification, test length, ability distribution offset, and generating model on the likelihood ratio difference test in applications of item response models. This study extended that research to the evaluation of dimensionality using the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model (MRCMLM). Logistic regression analysis of simulated data reveal that sample size and test length have a large effect on the capacity of the LR difference test to correctly identify unidimensionality, with shorter tests and smaller sample sizes leading to smaller Type I error rates. Higher levels of simulated misfit resulted in fewer incorrect decisions than data with no or little misfit. However, Type I error rates indicate that the likelihood ratio difference test is not suitable under any of the simulated conditions for evaluating dimensionality in applications of the MRCMLM.

CyNEST: a maintainable Cython-based interface for the NEST simulator

PubMed Central

Zaytsev, Yury V.; Morrison, Abigail

2014-01-01

NEST is a simulator for large-scale networks of spiking point neuron models (Gewaltig and Diesmann, 2007). Originally, simulations were controlled via the Simulation Language Interpreter (SLI), a built-in scripting facility implementing a language derived from PostScript (Adobe Systems, Inc., 1999). The introduction of PyNEST (Eppler et al., 2008), the Python interface for NEST, enabled users to control simulations using Python. As the majority of NEST users found PyNEST easier to use and to combine with other applications, it immediately displaced SLI as the default NEST interface. However, developing and maintaining PyNEST has become increasingly difficult over time. This is partly because adding new features requires writing low-level C++ code intermixed with calls to the Python/C API, which is unrewarding. Moreover, the Python/C API evolves with each new version of Python, which results in a proliferation of version-dependent code branches. In this contribution we present the re-implementation of PyNEST in the Cython language, a superset of Python that additionally supports the declaration of C/C++ types for variables and class attributes, and provides a convenient foreign function interface (FFI) for invoking C/C++ routines (Behnel et al., 2011). Code generation via Cython allows the production of smaller and more maintainable bindings, including increased compatibility with all supported Python releases without additional burden for NEST developers. Furthermore, this novel approach opens up the possibility to support alternative implementations of the Python language at no cost given a functional Cython back-end for the corresponding implementation, and also enables cross-compilation of Python bindings for embedded systems and supercomputers alike. PMID:24672470

Assessing relative abundance and reproductive success of shrubsteppe raptors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lehman, Robert N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.

1998-01-01

From 1991-1994, we quantified relative abundance and reproductive success of the Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis), Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Burrowing Owl (Speotytoc unicularia), and Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) on the shrubsteppe plateaus (benchlands) in and near the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. To assess relative abundance, we searched randomly selected plots using four sampling methods: point counts, line transects, and quadrats of two sizes. On a persampling-effort basis, transects were slightly more effective than point counts and quadrats for locating raptor nests (3.4 pairs detected/100 h of effort vs. 2.2-3.1 pairs). Random sampling using quadrats failed to detect a Short-eared Owl population increase from 1993 to 1994. To evaluate nesting success, we tried to determine reproductive outcome for all nesting attempts located during random, historical, and incidental nest searches. We compared nesting success estimates based on all nesting attempts, on attempts found during incubation, and the Mayfield model. Most pairs used to evaluate success were pairs found incidentally. Visits to historical nesting areas yielded the highest number of pairs per sampling effort (14.6/100 h), but reoccupancy rates for most species decreased through time. Estimates based on all attempts had the highest sample sizes but probably overestimated success for all species except the Ferruginous Hawk. Estimates of success based on nesting attempts found during incubation had the lowest sample sizes. All three methods yielded biased nesting snccess estimates for the Northern Harrier and Short-eared Owl. The estimate based on pairs found during incubation probably provided the least biased estimate for the Burrowing Owl. Assessments of nesting success were hindered by difficulties in confirming egg laying and nesting success for all species except the Ferruginous hawk.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

[Nesting habitat characterization for Amazona oratrix (Psittaciformes: Psittacidae) in the Central Pacific, Mexico].

PubMed

Monterrubio-Rico, Tiberio C; Álvarez-Jara, Margarito; Tellez-Garcia, Loreno; Tena-Morelos, Carlos

2014-09-01

The nesting requirements of the Yellow-headed Parrot (Amazona oratrix) are poorly understood, despite their broad historical distribution, high demand for pet trade and current endangered status. Information concerning their nesting requirements is required in order to design specific restoration and conser- vation actions. To assess this, we studied their nesting ecology in the Central Pacific, Michoacan, Mexico during a ten year period. The analyzed variables ranged from local scale nest site characteristics such as nesting tree species, dimensions, geographic positions, diet and nesting forest patches structure, to large scale features such as vegetation use and climatic variables associated to the nesting tree distributions by an ecological niche model using Maxent. We also evaluated the parrot tolerance to land management regimes, and compared the Pacific nest trees with 18 nest trees recorded in an intensively managed private ranch in Tamaulipas, Gulf of Mexico. Parrots nested in tall trees with canopy level cavities in 92 nest-trees recorded from 11 tree species. The 72.8% of nesting occurred in trees of Astronium graveolens, and Enterolobium cyclocarpum which qualified as key- stone trees. The forests where the parrots nested, presented a maximum of 54 tree species, 50% of which were identified as food source; besides, these areas also had a high abundance of trees used as food supply. The lowest number of tree species and trees to forage occurred in an active cattle ranch, whereas the highest species rich- ness was observed in areas with natural recovery. The nesting cavity entrance height from above ground of the Pacific nesting trees resulted higher than those found in the Gulf of Mexico. We hypothesize that the differences may be attributed to Parrot behavioral differences adapting to differential poaching pressure and cavity avail- ability. Nesting trees were found in six vegetation types; however the parrots preferred conserved and riparian semi-deciduous forest for nesting, with fewer nests in deciduous forest, while nesting in transformed agricultural fields was avoided. The main climatic variables associated with the potential distribution of nests were: mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of wettest month. Suitable cli- matic conditions for the potential presence of nesting trees were present in 61% of the region; however, most of the area consisted of tropical deciduous forests (55.8%), while semi-deciduous tropical forests covered only 17% of the region. These results indicated the importance to conserve semi-deciduous forests as breeding habitats for the Yellow-headed Parrot, and revealed the urgent need to implement conservation and restoration actions. These should include a total ban of land use change in tropical semi-deciduous forest areas, and for selective logging of all keystone tree species; besides, we recommend the establishment of wildlife sanctuaries in important nesting areas, and a series of tropical forest restoration programs in the Central Pacific coast.

Religion, contraception, and method choice of married women in Ghana.

PubMed

Gyimah, Stephen Obeng; Adjei, Jones K; Takyi, Baffour K

2012-12-01

Using pooled data from the 1998 and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys, this paper investigates the association between religion and contraceptive behavior of married women in Ghana. Guided by the particularized theology and characteristics hypotheses, multinomial logit and complementary log-log models are used to explore denominational differences in contraceptive adoption among currently married women and assess whether the differences could be explained through other characteristics. We found that while there were no differences between women of different Christian faiths, non-Christian women (Muslim and Traditional) were significantly more likely to have never used contraception compared with Christian women. Similar observations were made on current use of contraception, although the differences were greatly reduced in the multivariate models.

Topics in Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and its Monte Carlo Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tak, Hyung Suk

The first chapter addresses a Beta-Binomial-Logit model that is a Beta-Binomial conjugate hierarchical model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. Frequency coverage properties of several hyper-prior distributions are also investigated to see when and whether Bayesian interval estimates of random effects meet their nominal confidence levels. The second chapter deals with a time delay estimation problem in astrophysics. When the gravitational field of an intervening galaxy between a quasar and the Earth is strong enough to split light into two or more images, the time delay is defined as the difference between their travel times. The time delay can be used to constrain cosmological parameters and can be inferred from the time series of brightness data of each image. To estimate the time delay, we construct a Gaussian hierarchical model based on a state-space representation for irregularly observed time series generated by a latent continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our Bayesian approach jointly infers model parameters via a Gibbs sampler. We also introduce a profile likelihood of the time delay as an approximation of its marginal posterior distribution. The last chapter specifies a repelling-attracting Metropolis algorithm, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore multi-modal distributions in a simple and fast manner. This algorithm is essentially a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal that consists of a downhill move in density that aims to make local modes repelling, followed by an uphill move in density that aims to make local modes attracting. The downhill move is achieved via a reciprocal Metropolis ratio so that the algorithm prefers downward movement. The uphill move does the opposite using the standard Metropolis ratio which prefers upward movement. This down-up movement in density increases the probability of a proposed move to a different mode.

Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

PubMed Central

Salomon, Joshua A

2003-01-01

Background In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO) or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. Methods Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression) with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. Results Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99). Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. Conclusions Modeling health-state valuations based on ordinal ranks can provide results that are similar to those obtained from more widely analyzed valuation techniques such as the TTO. The information content in aggregate ranking data is not currently exploited to full advantage. The possibility of estimating cardinal valuations from ordinal ranks could also simplify future data collection dramatically and facilitate wider empirical study of health-state valuations in diverse settings and population groups. PMID:14687419

Nested radiations and the pulse of angiosperm diversification: increased diversification rates often follow whole genome duplications.

PubMed

Tank, David C; Eastman, Jonathan M; Pennell, Matthew W; Soltis, Pamela S; Soltis, Douglas E; Hinchliff, Cody E; Brown, Joseph W; Sessa, Emily B; Harmon, Luke J

2015-07-01

Our growing understanding of the plant tree of life provides a novel opportunity to uncover the major drivers of angiosperm diversity. Using a time-calibrated phylogeny, we characterized hot and cold spots of lineage diversification across the angiosperm tree of life by modeling evolutionary diversification using stepwise AIC (MEDUSA). We also tested the whole-genome duplication (WGD) radiation lag-time model, which postulates that increases in diversification tend to lag behind established WGD events. Diversification rates have been incredibly heterogeneous throughout the evolutionary history of angiosperms and reveal a pattern of 'nested radiations' - increases in net diversification nested within other radiations. This pattern in turn generates a negative relationship between clade age and diversity across both families and orders. We suggest that stochastically changing diversification rates across the phylogeny explain these patterns. Finally, we demonstrate significant statistical support for the WGD radiation lag-time model. Across angiosperms, nested shifts in diversification led to an overall increasing rate of net diversification and declining relative extinction rates through time. These diversification shifts are only rarely perfectly associated with WGD events, but commonly follow them after a lag period. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.