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Sample records for nested regional climate

  1. Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

    2017-07-01

    We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

  2. Diagnosis of precipitation variability in nested regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R.; PIRCS Participants

    2003-04-01

    In order to assess reasons for model-to-model variability of precipitation in regional climate models (RCMs) we have evaluated 60-day simulations over the continental U.S. in June-July 1993 from thirteen simulations using different RCMs. The hydrologic cycles in the simulations were compared both to each other and to observations for a subregion of the upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), containing the region of maximum 60-day accumulated precipitation in all RCMs and station reports. All RCMs produced positive precipitation (P) minus evaporation (E) and recycling ratios that were within the range estimated from observations. RCM E was sensitive to radiation parameterization, but inter-model variability of E was spread evenly about estimates of observed E. In contrast, most RCMs produced P that was below the range of P from observations, accounting for the low values of simulated P-E compared to observations. Nine of the 13 RCMs reproduced qualitatively the observed daily cycles of P and moisture flux convergence (C), with maximum P and C occurring simultaneously at night. Three of the four driest RCMs had maximum precipitation in the afternoon, suggesting that in these RCMs afternoon destabilization by insolation had excessive influence on production of precipitation. Thus a key indicator of the ability of RCMs in this collection to properly simulate P is their ability to simulate the observed nocturnal maximum of P, indicating that the failure to resolve the diurnal cycle is closely related to overall bias in precipitation.

  3. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  4. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  5. Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines.

    PubMed Central

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Møller, Anders Pape; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Leivits, Agu; Lambrechts, Marcel M; Visser, Marcel E; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Both, Christiaan; Dhondt, André A; McCleery, Robin H; McMeeking, John; Potti, Jamie; Røstad, Ole Wiggo; Thomson, David

    2003-01-01

    Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected. PMID:14667357

  6. The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

    2008-12-01

    The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is

  7. Projected changes of extreme precipitation over Contiguous United States with Nested regional climate model (NRCM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events have already significantly influenced North America. During 2005-2011, the extreme events have increased by 250 %, from four or fewer events occurring in 2005, while 14 events occurring in 2011 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). In addition, extreme rainfall amounts, frequency, and intensity were all expected to increase under greenhouse warming scenarios (Wehner 2005; Kharin et al. 2007; Tebaldi et al. 2006). Global models are powerful tools to investigate the climate and climate change on large scales. However, such models do not represent local terrain and mesoscale weather systems well owing to their coarse horizontal resolution (150-300 km). To capture the fine-scale features of extreme weather events, regional climate models (RCMs) with a more realistic representation of the complex terrain and heterogeneous land surfaces are needed (Mass et al. 2002). This study uses the Nested Regional Climate model (NRCM) to perform regional scale climate simulations on a 12-km × 12-km high resolution scale over North America (including Alaska; with 600 × 515 grid cells at longitude and latitude), known as CORDEX_North America, instead of small regions as studied previously (eg., Dominguez et al. 2012; Gao et al. 2012). The performance and the biases of the NRCM extreme precipitation calculations (2000-2010) have been evaluated with PRISM precipitation (Daly et al. 1997) by Wang and Kotamarthi (2013): the NRCM replicated very well the monthly amount of extreme precipitation with less than 3% overestimation over East CONUS, and the frequency of extremes over West CONUS and upper Mississippi River Basin. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 from the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0) are dynamically downscaled to predict the extreme rainfall events at the end-of-century (2085-2095) and to explore the uncertainties of future extreme precipitation induced by different scenarios over distinct regions. We have

  8. Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

    2016-04-01

    In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict

  9. Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021 2050)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Kwon, Won-Tae; Giorgi, Filippo

    2008-02-01

    An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021 2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971 2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1 4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021 2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations

  10. Considerations on domain location according to the jump of resolution between the driving data and the nested regional climate model within the Big-Brother experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, D.; Laprise, R.; Theriault, J. M.; Lucas-Picher, P.

    2015-12-01

    Many studies have shown the importance of choosing the domain size adequately for dynamical downscaling with nested regional climate models. It is well known that domain should not be too large to avoid large departure from the driving data, and not be too small to provide sufficient distance from the lateral inflow to allow a full development of the small-scale features resolved by the increase resolution. Although practitioners of dynamical downscaling are well aware that the jump of resolution between the driving data and the nested regional climate model impacts the simulated climate, the issue has never been properly study. Larger is the jump of resolution, larger is the distance from the lateral inflow to fully develop the small-scale features permitted by the increase resolution. Our investigation compares direct nesting to achieve a grid mesh of 0.15o from driving data at 3.6°, 1.8o, 0.45° and 0.15° using the perfect-prognostic approach of the Big-Brother protocol. The results show that the small-scale transient-eddy component struggles to be fully developed with reduced resolution of the driving data. Overall, this study suggests that domain location (i.e. domain of interest or subsequent nested domains) must be chosen carefully according to the jump of resolution to allow the optimal development of small-scale features allowed by the increase resolution of the nested model.

  11. Global-to-regional grid nesting in GFDL HiRAM for very-high resolution climate simulation and storm-scale prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, L.

    2015-12-01

    Forecasts at lead times greater than three days, and any regional climate simulation, require a correct and consistent simulation of the large-scale flow to be able to properly represent the small-scale phenomena desired from expensive, high-resolution models. Further, representing both the large and small scales must be done efficiently enough so as to meet an operational forecast requirement or so that multi-year climate simulations can be performed. To this end, two-way global-to-regional grid nesting has been implemented in the GFDL finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) dynamical core to consistently and efficiently represent the global large-scale circulation and the convection-permitting or convection-resolving scales. We demonstrate recent applications of grid nesting in the global GFDL High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM), including simulations using nonhydrostatic dynamics. In present-day climate simulations, an 8-km nested grid over the continental US permits explicitly-resolved propagating convective systems, greatly improving the diurnal cycle of warm-season precipitation. A similar 8-km nest over the tropical Atlantic permits resolution of eyewalls and rainbands within tropical cyclones, opening the way for efficient seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction of intense hurricanes. On smaller scales, a 1.5-km nest over the central US allows simulation of intense supercell thunderstorms with realistic convective and boundary-layer structures.

  12. Downscaling with a Nested Regional Climate Model in Near-Surface Fields over the Contiguous United States

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

    2014-07-27

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

  13. Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). Part I: Sensitivity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Yihui; Shi, Xueli; Liu, Yiming; Liu, Yan; Li, Qingquan; Qian, Yongfu; Miao, Manqian; Zhai, Guoqing; Gao, Kun

    2006-05-01

    A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model II) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.

  14. Sensitivity of the Himalayan orography representation in simulation of winter precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested in a GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Sinha, P.; Shekhar, M. S.

    2017-02-01

    The role of the Himalayan orography representation in a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in NCMRWF global spectral model is examined in simulating the winter circulation and associated precipitation over the Northwest India (NWI; 23°-37.5°N and 69°-85°E) region. For this purpose, nine different set of orography representations for nine distinct precipitation years (three years each for wet, normal and dry) have been considered by increasing (decreasing) 5, 10, 15, and 20% from the mean height (CNTRL) of the Himalaya in RegCM4 model. Validation with various observations revealed a good improvement in reproducing the precipitation intensity and distribution with increased model height compared to the results obtained from CNTRL and reduced orography experiments. Further it has been found that, increase in height by 10% (P10) increases seasonal precipitation about 20%, while decrease in height by 10% (M10) results around 28% reduction in seasonal precipitation as compared to CNTRL experiment over NWI region. This improvement in precipitation simulation comes due to better representation of vertical pressure velocity and moisture transport as these factors play an important role in wintertime precipitation processes over NWI region. Furthermore, a comparison of model-simulated precipitation with observed precipitation at 17 station locations has been also carried out. Overall, the results suggest that when the orographic increment of 10% (P10) is applied on RegCM4 model, it has better skill in simulating the precipitation over the NWI region and this model is a useful tool for further regional downscaling studies.

  15. Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby

    2017-01-01

    Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low

  16. Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

    PubMed Central

    Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  17. Potential influences of climate and nest structure on spotted owl reproductive success: a biophysical approach.

    PubMed

    Rockweit, Jeremy T; Franklin, Alan B; Bakken, George S; Gutiérrez, R J

    2012-01-01

    Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (h(c)) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of h(c) in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (~36 °C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ~26 °C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season.

  18. Potential Influences of Climate and Nest Structure on Spotted Owl Reproductive Success: A Biophysical Approach

    PubMed Central

    Rockweit, Jeremy T.; Franklin, Alan B.; Bakken, George S.; Gutiérrez, R. J.

    2012-01-01

    Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (hc) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of hc in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (∼36°C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ∼26°C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season. PMID:22859993

  19. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  20. Duck nest success in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Shaffer, T.L.; Johnson, D.H.

    1988-01-01

    We estimated nest success of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (A. strepera), blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), and northern pintail (A. acuta) for 5 regions in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, for 1-3 periods between 1966 and 1984, and for 8 habitat classes. We obtained composite estimates of nest success for regions and periods by weighting each habitat proportional to the number of nest initiations. The distribution of nest initiations was derived from estimates of breeding populations, preferences of species for nesting habitats, and availability of habitats. Nest success rates ranged from < 5 to 36% among regions, periods, and species. Rates were lowest in western Minnesota (MNW) and eastern North Dakota (NDE), intermediate in central North Dakota (NDC) and eastern South Dakota (SDE), and highest in central South Dakota (SDC). In regions with comparable data, no consistent trend in nest success was apparent from early to late periods. Gadwalls and blue-winged teal nested more successfully than mallards and pintails; the relative success of shovelers varied regionally. Ducks nesting in idle grassland were the most successful and those nesting in cropland were least successful. Mammalian predation was the major cause of nesting failure (54-85%) in all habitats, but farming operations resulted in 37 and 27% of the nesting failures in cropland and hayland, respectively. Most of the populations studied were not self-sustaining.

  1. The influence of regional hydrology on nesting behavior and nest fate of the American alligator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ugarte, Cristina A.; Bass, Oron L.; Nuttle, William; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Whelan, Kevin R.T.

    2013-01-01

    Hydrologic conditions are critical to the nesting behavior and reproductive success of crocodilians. In South Florida, USA, growing human settlement has led to extensive surface water management and modification of historical water flows in the wetlands, which have affected regional nesting of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Although both natural and anthropogenic factors are considered to determine hydrologic conditions, the aspects of hydrological patterns that affect alligator nest effort, flooding (partial and complete), and failure (no hatchling) are unclear. We deconstructed annual hydrological patterns using harmonic models that estimated hydrological matrices including mean, amplitude, timing of peak, and periodicity of surface water depth and discharge and examined their effects on alligator nesting using survey data from Shark Slough, Everglades National Park, from 1985 to 2005. Nest effort increased in years with higher mean and lesser periodicity of water depth. A greater proportion of nests were flooded and failed when peak discharge occurred earlier in the year. Also, nest flooding rates were greater in years with greater periodicity of water depth, and nest failure rate was greater when mean discharge was higher. This study guides future water management decisions to mitigate negative impacts on reproduction of alligators and provides wildlife managers with a tool for assessing and modifying annual water management plans to conserve crocodilians and other wetland species.

  2. Regional warming and the thermal regimes of American crocodile nests in the Tempisque Basin, Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Murray, Christopher M; Easter, Michael; Padilla, Sergio; Marin, Mahmood Sasa; Guyer, Craig

    2016-08-01

    Spatial variation in global climate change makes population-specific responses to this enigmatic threat pertinent on a regional scale. Organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) potentially possess a unique physiological susceptibility that threatens population viability if rapid environmental effects on sex ratios render populations non-viable. A heavily male-biased sex ratio for hatchling American crocodiles of the Tempisque Basin, Costa Rica requires assessment of how nest temperature affects sex determination at this site, how females might compensate for these effects when creating nests, and how current patterns of climate change might alter future sex ratios and survival in hatchling cohorts. We demonstrate high within-nest variation in temperature but predict a female bias at hatching based on nest temperatures quantified here. Further, our data suggest that egg size and metabolic heating associated with this factor outweighs microhabitat parameters and depth in influencing nest thermal regimes. Finally, we document regional warming in the Tempisque Basin over the last 15 years and project that further heating over the next 15 years will not yield hatchling sex ratios as male biased as those currently found at this site. Thus, we find no support for nest temperature or climate change as likely explanations for male-biased American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) sex ratios in the Tempisque Basin.

  3. Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)

    PubMed Central

    Dalleau, Mayeul; Ciccione, Stéphane; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Garnier, Julie; Benhamou, Simon; Bourjea, Jérôme

    2012-01-01

    Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte) but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin), differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found. PMID:23056527

  4. Nesting phenology of marine turtles: insights from a regional comparative analysis on green turtle (Chelonia mydas).

    PubMed

    Dalleau, Mayeul; Ciccione, Stéphane; Mortimer, Jeanne A; Garnier, Julie; Benhamou, Simon; Bourjea, Jérôme

    2012-01-01

    Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte) but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin), differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found.

  5. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  6. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  7. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  8. Tropical cyclone activity in nested regional and global grid-refined simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, Atsushi; Done, James M.; Fowler, Laura D.; Bruyère, Cindy L.

    2016-07-01

    The capacity of two different grid refinement methods—two-way limited area nesting and variable-mesh refinement—to capture Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity is compared in a suite of single-year continuous simulations. Simulations are conducted with and without regional grid refinement from approximately 100-20 km grid spacing over the Northwest Pacific. The capacity to capture smooth transitions between the two resolutions varies by grid refinement method. Nesting shows adverse influence of the nest boundary, with the boundary evident in seasonal average cloud patterns and precipitation, and contortions of the seasonal mean mid-latitude jet. Variable-mesh, on the other hand, reduces many of these effects and produced smoother cloud patterns and mid-latitude jet structure. Both refinement methods lead to increased TC frequency in the region of refinement compared to simulations without grid refinement, although nesting adversely affects TC tracks through the contorted mid-latitude jet. The variable-mesh approach leads to enhanced TC activity over the Southern Indian and Southwest Pacific basins, compared to a uniform mesh simulation. Nesting, on the other hand, does not appear to influence basins outside the region of grid refinement. This study provides evidence that variable mesh may bring benefits to seasonal TC simulation over traditional nesting, and demonstrates capacity of variable mesh refinement for regional climate simulation.

  9. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Mearns, L.; Anderson, C.; Bader, D.; Buonomo, E.; Caya, D.; Duffy, P.; Elguindi, N.; Giorgi, F.; Gutowski, W.; Held, I.; Nunes, A.; Jones, R.; Laprise, R.; Leung, L. R.; Middleton, D.; Moufouma-Okia, W.; Nychka, D.; Qian, Y.; Roads, J.; Sain, S.; Snyder, M.; Sloan, L.; Takle, E.

    2006-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). NARCCAP is using six nested regional climate models at 50 km resolution to dynamically downscale realizations of current climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2041-2070, following the A2 SRES emission scenario) from four AOGCMs. Global time slice simulations, also at 50 km resolution, will be performed using the GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3 atmospheric models forced by the AOGCM sea surface temperatures and will be compared with results of the regional models. Results from this multiple-RCM, multiple-AOGCM suite will be statistically analyzed to investigate the cascade of uncertainty as one type of model draws information from another. All output will be made available to the climate analysis and climate impacts assessment communities through an archiving and data distribution plan. The climate impacts community will have these data at unprecedented spatial and temporal (hourly to six-hourly) resolution to support decision-relevant evaluations for public policy. As part of our evaluation of uncertainties, simulations are presently being concluded that nest the participating RCMs within reanalyses of observations. These simulations can be viewed as nesting the RCMs within a GCM that is nearly perfect (constrained by available observations), allowing us to separate errors attributable to the RCMs from those attributable to the driving AOGCMs. Results to date indicate that skill is greater in winter than in summer, and greater for temperature than for precipitation. Temperature and precipitation errors

  10. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  11. Optimizing dynamic downscaling in one-way nesting using a regional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan; Ku, Hyeyun

    2016-10-01

    Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models has been demonstrated to be an effective approach for both operationally forecasted sea weather on regional scales and projections of future climate change and its impact on the ocean. However, when nesting procedures are carried out in dynamic downscaling from a larger-scale model or set of observations to a smaller scale, errors are unavoidable due to the differences in grid sizes and updating intervals. The present work assesses the impact of errors produced by nesting procedures on the downscaled results from Ocean Regional Circulation Models (ORCMs). Errors are identified and evaluated based on their sources and characteristics by employing the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). The BBE uses the same model to produce both nesting and nested simulations; so it addresses those error sources separately (i.e., without combining the contributions of errors from different sources). Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from the spatial grids' differences, the updating times and the domain sizes. After the BBE was separately run for diverse cases, a Taylor diagram was used to analyze the results and recommend an optimal combination of grid size, updating period and domain sizes. Finally, suggested setups for the downscaling were evaluated by examining the spatial correlations of variables and the relative magnitudes of variances between the nested model and the original data.

  12. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  13. Numerical Weather Prediction Over Caucasus Region With Nested Grid Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davitashvili, Dr.; Kutaladze, Dr.; Kvatadze, Dr.

    2010-09-01

    territory of Georgia. Both use the default 31 vertical levels. We have studied the effect of thermal and advective-dynamic factors of atmosphere on the changes of the West Georgian climate. We have shown that non-proportional warming of the Black Sea and Colkhi lowland provokes the intensive strengthening of circulation. Some results of calculations of the interaction of airflow with complex orography of Caucasus with horizontal grid-point resolutions of 15 and 5 km are presented. Also with the purpose of study behavior of nested grid method above complex terrain we have elaborated in sigma coordinate system short term prediction regional numerical model for Caucasus region. The results of computation carried out with one directional, two directional and new combined methods are given.

  14. A nested model study of the Sahelian climate response to sea-surface temperature anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Semazzi, F.H. M.; Lin, N.; Lin, Y.; Giorgi, F.

    1993-12-01

    A nested high resolution atmospheric model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Sahelian climate to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The nested system has realistic vegetation and detailed bottom orography. Two separate sets of northern hemispheric summer (June, July and August) numerical integrations are performed; one corresponding to the SST anomalies in 1950 when the Sahelian region was relatively much wetter than the long-term average conditions and a second integration based on 1984 SST anomalies when one of the driest rain seasons in the last few decades was experienced. Although the low resolution (R15 approximately equal 4.5 deg by 7.5 deg latitude by longitude) stand-alone global climate model reasonably simulates the lower rainfall amounts in 1984 compared to 1950, the nested system yields more realistic regional climate because its forcing includes more detailed effects of topography, land-sea contrasts, and land surface processes. In particular, two distinct rainfall maxima primarily anchored to the regions of highest terrain are simulated by the model. One corresponding to the highlands in Cameroon over the Adamawa Plateau and a second maxima over Guinea and Sierra-Leone. Inspection of model circulation indicates that the weaker moist cross-equatorial monsoon flow in the 1984 is responsible for the lower amounts of the Sahelian rainfall compared to 1950. Our results are in agreement with several diagnostic and modeling studies performed in the recent years which show that deficient sub-Saharan rainy seasons tends to coincide with the southwesterly surface monsoon flow not extending as far north along the West African coast as in the wetter years.

  15. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  16. Techniques for studying nest success of ducks in upland habitats in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Duebbert, H.F.; Faanes, C.A.; Higgins, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    Selected procedures are described for conducting nesting studies of upland nesting ducks in the prairie pothole region. Emphasis is on the use of standard procedures so that comparable results can be obtained. Major topics addressed are finding nests by flushing hens with drags pulled by vehicles, recording of appropriate data, and calculating nest success rates. Techniques are described for conducting nest searches, candling eggs in the field, determining fate of clutches, and identifying species from evidence at nests. Two methods are presented for calculating nest success.

  17. Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, Evan; Molemaker, Jeroen; Shchepetkin, Alexander F.; Colas, Francois; McWilliams, James C.; Sangrà, Pablo

    One-way offline nesting of a primitive-equation regional ocean numerical model (ROMS) is investigated, with special attention to the boundary forcing file creation process. The model has a modified open boundary condition which minimises false wave reflections, and is optimised to utilise high-frequency boundary updates. The model configuration features a previously computed solution which supplies boundary forcing data to an interior domain with an increased grid resolution. At the open boundaries of the interior grid (the child) the topography is matched to that of the outer grid (the parent), over a narrow transition region. A correction is applied to the normal baroclinic and barotropic velocities at the open boundaries of the child to ensure volume conservation. It is shown that these steps, together with a carefully constructed interpolation of the parent data, lead to a high-quality child solution, with minimal artifacts such as persistent rim currents and wave reflections at the boundaries. Sensitivity experiments provide information about the robustness of the model open boundary condition to perturbations in the surface wind stress forcing field, to the perturbation of the volume conservation enforcement in the boundary forcing, and to perturbation of the vertical density structure in the boundary forcing. This knowledge is important when extending the nesting technique to include external data from alien sources, such as ocean models with physics and/or numerics different from ROMS, or from observed climatologies of temperature, salinity and sea level.

  18. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  19. Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup

    2015-11-01

    Many animals build extravagant nests that exceed the size required for successful reproduction. Large nests may signal the parenting ability of nest builders suggesting that nests may have a signaling function. In particular, many raptors build very large nests for their body size. We studied nest size in the goshawk Accipiter gentilis, which is a top predator throughout most of the Nearctic. Both males and females build nests, and males provision their females and offspring with food. Nest volume in the goshawk is almost three-fold larger than predicted from their body size. Nest size in the goshawk is highly variable and may reach more than 600 kg for a bird that weighs ca. 1 kg. While 8.5% of nests fell down, smaller nests fell down more often than large nests. There was a hump-shaped relationship between nest volume and female age, with a decline in nest volume late in life, as expected for senescence. Clutch size increased with nest volume. Nest volume increased during 1977-2014 in an accelerating fashion, linked to increasing spring temperature during April, when goshawks build and start reproduction. These findings are consistent with nest size being a reliable signal of parental ability, with large nest size signaling superior parenting ability and senescence, and also indicating climate warming.

  20. Regional Forest Fragmentation and the Nesting Success of Migratory Birds

    Treesearch

    Scott K. Robinson; Frank R. Thompson III; Therese M. Donovan; Donald R. Whitehead; John Faaborg

    1995-01-01

    Forest fragmentation, the disruption in the continuity of forest habitat, is hypothesized to be a major cause of population decline for, some species of forest birds because fragmentation reduces nesting (reproductive) success. Nest predation and parasitism by cowbirds increased with forest fragmentation in nine midwestern (United States)landscapes that varied from 6...

  1. Nesting lizards (Bassiana duperreyi) compensate partly, but not completely, for climate change.

    PubMed

    Telemeco, Rory S; Elphick, Melanie J; Shine, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Species in which ambient temperatures directly determine offspring sex may be at particular risk as global climates change. Whether or not climate change affects sex ratio depends upon the effectiveness of buffering mechanisms that link ambient regimes to actual nest temperatures. For example, females may simply lay nests earlier in the season, or in more shaded areas, such that incubation thermal regimes are unchanged despite massive ambient fluctuation. Based on eight years of monitoring nests over a 10-year period in the field at an alpine site in southeastern Australia, we show that, even though lizards (Bassiana duperreyi, Scincidae) have adjusted both nest depth and seasonal timing of oviposition in response to rising ambient temperatures, they have been unable to compensate entirely for climate change. That inability stems from the fact that the seasonal progression of soil temperatures, and thus, the degree to which thermal regimes at the time of laying predict subsequent conditions during incubation, also has shifted with climate change. As a result, mean incubation temperatures in natural nests now have crossed the thermal threshold at which incubation temperature directly affects offspring sex in this population.

  2. Regional sun climate interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.

    2005-11-01

    It is a clear fact that the Earth's climate has been changing since the pre-industrial era, especially during the last three decades. This change is generally attributed to three main factors: greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and solar activity changes. However, these factors are not all-independent. Furthermore, contributions of the above-mentioned factors are still disputed. We sought whether a parallelism between the solar activity variations and the changes in the Earth's climate can be established. For this, we compared the solar irradiance model data reconstructed by J. Lean to surface air temperature variations of two countries: USA and Japan. Comparison was carried out in two categories: correlations and periodicities. We utilized data from a total of 60 stations, 18 in USA and 42 in Japan. USA data range from 1900 to 1995, while Japan data range from 1900 to 1990. Our analyses yielded a 42 per cent correlation for USA and a 79 per cent for Japan between the temperature and solar irradiance. Moreover, both data sets showed similar periodicities. Hence, our results indicate marked influence of solar activity variations on the Earth's climate.

  3. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2011-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with a medium-high emissions scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within the NCEP reanalysis R2. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes six different RCMs that have been used in various intercomparison programs in Europe and the United States. Four different AOGCMs provide boundary conditions to drive the RCMS for 30 years in the current climate and 30 years for the mid 21st century. The resulting climate model simulations form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts and adaptation assessments over North America. Eleven of the planned 12 sets of current and future simulations have been completed. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple simulations are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from the climate change experiments for various subregions, along with measures of uncertainty, will be presented.

  4. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2012-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with a medium-high emissions scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within the NCEP reanalysis R2. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes six different RCMs that have been used in various intercomparison programs in Europe and the United States. Four different AOGCMs provide boundary conditions to drive the RCMS for 30 years in the current climate and 30 years for the mid 21st century. The resulting climate model simulations form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts and adaptation assessments over North America. All 12 sets of current and future simulations have been completed. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple simulations are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from the various climate change experiments for various subregions, along with measures of uncertainty, will be presented

  5. Seasonal rainfall predictions over the southeast United States using the Florida State University nested regional spectral model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocke, Steven; Larow, T. E.; Shin, D. W.

    2007-02-01

    Seasonal rainfall predictions over the southeast United States using the recently developed Florida State University (FSU) nested regional spectral model are presented. The regional model is nested within the FSU coupled model, which includes a version of the Max Plank Institute Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model. The southeast U.S. winter has a rather strong climatic signal due to teleconnections with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and thus provides a good test case scenario for a modeling study. Simulations were done for 12 boreal winter seasons, from 1986 to 1997. Both the regional and global models captured the basic large-scale patterns of precipitation reasonably well when compared to observed station data. The regional model was able to predict the anomaly pattern somewhat better than the global model. The regional model was particularly more skillful at predicting the frequency of significant rainfall events, in part because of the ability to produce heavier rainfall events.

  6. Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

    PubMed

    Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

    2017-11-01

    Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the

  7. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Arritt, R.; Biner, S.; Bukovsky, Melissa; McGinnis, Seth; Sain, Steve; Caya, Daniel; Correia Jr., James; Flory, Dave; Gutowski, William; Takle, Gene; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; McDaniel, Larry; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, J.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2012-09-20

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is an international effort designed to systematically investigate the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and produce high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (Phase I) wherein the participating RCMs are nested within 25 years of NCEP/DOE global reanalysis II. The grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km.

  8. Historical versus Contemporary Climate Forcing on the Annual Nesting Variability of Loggerhead Sea Turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Arendt, Michael D.; Schwenter, Jeffrey A.; Witherington, Blair E.; Meylan, Anne B.; Saba, Vincent S.

    2013-01-01

    A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998–2007 was not projected for 2029–2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998–2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response. PMID

  9. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Arendt, Michael D; Schwenter, Jeffrey A; Witherington, Blair E; Meylan, Anne B; Saba, Vincent S

    2013-01-01

    A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

  10. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  11. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  12. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  13. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  14. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  15. Reliability of regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, K.; Kücken, M.; Nocke, Th.

    2003-04-01

    Quantification of uncertainty becomes more and more a key issue for assessing the trustability of future climate scenarios. In addition to the mean conditions, climate impact modelers focus in particular on extremes. Before generating such scenarios using e.g. dynamic regional climate models, a careful validation of present-day simulations should be performed to determine the range of errors for the quantities of interest under recent conditions as a raw estimate of their uncertainty in the future. Often, multiple aspects shall be covered together, and the required simulation accuracy depends on the user's demand. In our approach, a massive parallel regional climate model shall be used on the one hand to generate "long-term" high-resolution climate scenarios for several decades, and on the other hand to provide very high-resolution ensemble simulations of future dry spells or heavy rainfall events. To diagnosis the model's performance for present-day simulations, we have recently developed and tested a first version of a validation and visualization chain for this model. It is, however, applicable in a much more general sense and could be used as a common test bed for any regional climate model aiming at this type of simulations. Depending on the user's interest, integrated quality measures can be derived for near-surface parameters using multivariate techniques and multidimensional distance measures in a first step. At this point, advanced visualization techniques have been developed and included to allow for visual data mining and to qualitatively identify dominating aspects and regularities. Univariate techniques that are especially designed to assess climatic aspects in terms of statistical properties can then be used to quantitatively diagnose the error contributions of the individual used parameters. Finally, a comprehensive in-depth diagnosis tool allows to investigate, why the model produces the obtained near-surface results to answer the question if the

  16. Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming.

    PubMed

    Telemeco, Rory S; Fletcher, Brooke; Levy, Ofir; Riley, Angela; Rodriguez-Sanchez, Yesenia; Smith, Colton; Teague, Collin; Waters, Amanda; Angilletta, Michael J; Buckley, Lauren B

    2017-03-01

    Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.

  17. Regional Climate Change Projections over Northeast Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassain Sales, Domingo; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; Cavalcante, Arnóbio M. B.; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco; Martins de Araújo Junior, Luiz; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro

    2013-04-01

    Climate change and climate change impact studies often require a spatial resolution beyond the horizontal grid spacing of the data generated by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Dynamical Downscaling is one of techniques that allow regionalization of information from such models, in which the GCM data drive a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that in turn, at least theoretically, presents the climatological fields in more detail and can add value to climatic analysis. In this context, CORDEX is a coordinated experiment that standardizes dynamical downscaling simulations over continental regions, to provide a contribution from the regional climate modeling community to the IPCC/AR5 and beyond. Because computer resources are limited, a modeling group involved in CORDEX typically chooses one or few of the suggested domains, and use one or a few CMIP5 GCM data to drive its regional model. At the State University of Ceará (UECE), in Brazil, we used RAMS6.0 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0), driven by HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviroment Model Version 2 - Earth System) data, over a extended CORDEX Central America domain (longitude: 124.5W to 24.5W, latitude: 33.5N to 17.5S). This work presents the evaluation of climatological features of precipitation and temperature over Northeast Brazil region (longitude: 47W to 34.5W, latitude: 2.5S to 17.5S) for 20 years of the historical period (1985-2005) evaluating short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079-2099) changes, under the RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 scenarios. For the historical period, the results were compared against several observed data sets, in order to evaluate the performance of RAMS6.0 nested to HadGEM2-ES. The correlation between the simulated and observed annual cycle of precipitation is high (above 0.93). RAMS6.0 shows a wet bias of 0.706 mm/day that is larger than HadGEM2-ES bias (0.197 mm/day), however the regional model corrects the month of maximum precipitation (the global model

  18. Effects of climate variation on timing of nesting, reproductive success, and offspring sex ratios of red-winged blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Weatherhead, Patrick J

    2005-06-01

    Predicting ecological consequences of climate change will be improved by understanding how species are affected by contemporary climate variation, particularly if analyses involve more than single ecological variables and focus on large-scale climate phenomena. I used 18 years of data from red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) studied over a 25-year period in eastern Ontario to explore chronological and climate-related patterns of reproduction. Although blackbirds started nesting earlier in years with warmer springs, associated with low winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), there was no advance in laying dates over the study. Nesting ended progressively later and the breeding season lasted longer over the study, however, associated with higher spring values of NAOI. As the length of the nesting season increased, offspring sex ratios became more female biased, apparently as a result of females adjusting the sex of the eggs they laid, rather than from sex-biased nestling mortality. Clutch size did not vary systematically over the study or with climate. Opposing trends of declining nest success and increasing productivity of successful nests over the study resulted in no chronological change in productivity per female. Higher productivity of successful nests was associated with higher winter NAOI values, possibly because synchrony between nesting and food availability was higher in years with high NAOI values. Other than the association between the start of nesting and spring temperatures, local weather (e.g., temperature, rainfall) patterns that linked NAOI with reproduction were not identified, suggesting that weather patterns may be complex. Because climate affected most aspects of red-winged blackbird reproduction examined, focusing on associations between climate and single variables (e.g., first-egg dates) will have limited value in predicting how future climates will affect populations.

  19. Comparison between high-resolution climate simulations using single- and double-nesting approaches within the Big-Brother experimental protocol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Laprise, René; Thériault, Julie Mireille

    2016-12-01

    Regional climate models (RCM) are widely used to downscale global climate models' (GCMs) simulations. As the resolution of RCM increases faster than that of GCM used for climate-change projections till the end of this century, the resolution jump will become an issue. Cascade with multiple nesting offers an approach to reach high resolution while keeping reasonable computational cost. Few studies have addressed whether the best results are obtained with the single- or multiple-nesting approaches. In this study the results obtained with single and double nesting are compared within the idealised "perfect model" framework of the Big-Brother Experiment. This method consists in first realizing a simulation, nicknamed the Big-Brother (BB) simulation, on a relatively large domain at the desired resolution, to serve as reference dataset. The BB results are then processed by a low-pass filter to emulate a coarse-resolution dataset to be used as LBC to drive further simulations, nicknamed the Little-Brother (LB) simulations, using an identical model formulation and resolution as the BB simulation. For the single nesting, the LB simulations are directly simulated, while for the double nesting a surrogate intermediate-resolution simulation is used. The study of the time-mean (stationary) component shows that little difference is noted between the single- and double-nesting approaches. The time-deviation (transient-eddy) component, however, shows important differences. The double-nesting approach weakly degrades the large scales but allows a significant reduction of the required domain size to allow adequate spin-up of fine-scale features. This results in an important saving in the computational cost.

  20. Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

    PubMed

    Schwanz, Lisa E; Janzen, Fredric J

    2008-01-01

    Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.

  1. On the suitability of regional climate models for reconstructing climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapiador, Francisco J.; Angelis, Carlos F.; Viltard, Nicolas; Cuartero, Fernando; de Castro, Manuel

    2011-08-01

    This paper discusses the potential of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) as reanalysis tools by presenting a reconstruction of the European climate using several RCMs with diverse physical parameterizations. The use of RCMs is intended to increase the spatial resolution of the analysis provided by Global Models through dynamic downscaling. At the same time, the use of several models allows us to characterize the uncertainties, as these can be estimated from the spread of the ensemble. When the RCMs are nested in reanalyses instead of in a Global Model it is possible to create climatologies of unprecedented robustness for variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and humidity, among others. While these climatologies are subject to further improvement as methods and computing power evolve, they point the way forward to the development of atmospheric information products suitable for a variety of studies including education, agriculture, renewable energies and climate change research, biogeography, insurance, risk assessment, hydrology, and regional planning.

  2. Advancing climate dynamics toward reliable regional climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-06-01

    With a scientific consensus reached regarding the anthropogenic effect on global mean temperature, developing reliable regional climate projections has emerged as a new challenge for climate science. A national project was launched in China in 2012 to study ocean's role in regional climate change. This paper starts with a review of recent advances in the study of regional climate response to global warming, followed by a description of the Chinese project including the rationale, objectives, and plan for field observations. The 15 research articles that follow in the special issue are highlighted, representing some of the initial results from the project.

  3. Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

    PubMed

    Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

    2016-07-01

    Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may

  4. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA (Presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds suffer greater rates of nest predation and nest parasitism in smaller forest patches and in fragmented landscapes. To compare the performance of different metrics of spatial habitat configuration resulting from defo...

  5. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA (Presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds suffer greater rates of nest predation and nest parasitism in smaller forest patches and in fragmented landscapes. To compare the performance of different metrics of spatial habitat configuration resulting from defo...

  6. Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Patel, Samir H; Morreale, Stephen J; Saba, Vincent S; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

  7. Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

    PubMed Central

    Morreale, Stephen J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R.

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

  8. Year-round effects of climate on demographic parameters of an arctic-nesting goose species.

    PubMed

    van Oudenhove, Louise; Gauthier, Gilles; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique

    2014-11-01

    Understanding how climate change will affect animal population dynamics remains a major challenge, especially in long-distant migrants exposed to different climatic regimes throughout their annual cycle. We evaluated the effect of temperature throughout the annual cycle on demographic parameters (age-specific survival and recruitment, breeding propensity and fecundity) of the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica L.), an arctic-nesting species. As this is a hunted species, we used the theory of exploited populations to estimate hunting mortality separately from natural mortality in order to evaluate climatic effects only on the latter form of mortality. Our analysis was based on a 22-year marking study (n = 27,150 females) and included live recaptures at the breeding colony and dead recoveries from hunters. We tested the effect of climatic covariates by applying a procedure that accounts for unexplained environmental variation in the demographic parameter to a multistate capture-mark-recapture recruitment model. Breeding propensity, clutch size and hatching probability all increased with high temperatures on the breeding grounds. First-year survival to natural causes of mortality increased when temperature was high at the end of the summer, whereas adult survival was not affected by temperature. On the contrary, accession to reproduction decreased with warmer climatic conditions during the non-breeding season. Survival was strongly negatively related to hunting mortality in adults, as expected, but not in first-year birds, which suggests the possibility of compensation between natural and hunting mortality in the latter group. We show that events occurring both at and away from the breeding ground can affect the demography of migratory birds, either directly or through carryover effects, and sometimes in opposite ways. This highlights the need to account for the whole life cycle of an animal when attempting to project the response of populations to future

  9. Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

    2002-05-01

    An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

  10. Regional climate services: A regional partnership between NOAA and USDA

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate services in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions have been enhanced by a recent addition of the USDA Climate Hubs to NOAA’s existing network of partners. This new partnership stems from the intrinsic variability of intra and inter-annual climatic conditions, which makes decision-making fo...

  11. Contaminant exposure and reproductive success of Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay regions of concern

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rattner, B.A.; McGowan, P.C.; Golden, N.H.; Hatfield, J.S.; Toschik, P.C.; Lukei, R.F.; Hale, R.C.; Schmitz-Afonso, I.; Rice, C.P.

    2004-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay osprey population has more than doubled in size since restrictions were placed on the production and use of DDT and other toxic organochlorine contaminants in the 1970s. Ospreys are now nesting in the most highly polluted portions of the Bay. In 2000 and 2001, contaminant exposure and reproduction were monitored in ospreys nesting in regions of concern, including Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River, the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers, and the Elizabeth River, and a presumed reference site consisting of the South, West, and Rhode rivers. A 'sample egg' from each study nest was collected for contaminant analysis, and the fate of eggs remaining in each nest (n = 14-16/site) was monitored at 7- to 10-day intervals from egg incubation through fledging of young. Ospreys fledged young in regions of concern (observed success: 0.88 -1.53 fledglings/active nest), although productivity was marginal for sustaining local populations in Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River and in the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers. Concentrations of p,p'DDE and many other organochlorine pesticides or metabolites, total PCBs, some arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congeners and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners, and perfluorooctanesulfonate were often greater in sample eggs from regions of concern compared to the reference site. Nonetheless, logistic regression analyses did not provide evidence linking marginal productivity to p,p' -DDE, total PCBs, or arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congener exposure in regions of concern. In view of the moderate concentrations of total PCBs in eggs from the reference site, concerns related to new and emerging toxicants, and the absence of ecotoxicological data for terrestrial vertebrates in many Bay tributaries, a more thorough spatial evaluation of contaminant exposure in ospreys throughout the Chesapeake may be warranted.

  12. Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds

    PubMed Central

    Schlacher, Thomas A.; Weston, Michael A.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L.; Olds, Andrew D.; Connolly, Rod M.; Schoeman, David S.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. ‘Topographic’ exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them. PMID:27672510

  13. Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds.

    PubMed

    Maslo, Brooke; Schlacher, Thomas A; Weston, Michael A; Huijbers, Chantal M; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L; Olds, Andrew D; Connolly, Rod M; Schoeman, David S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. 'Topographic' exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them.

  14. Contaminant exposure and reproductive success of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay regions of concern.

    PubMed

    Rattner, B A; McGowan, P C; Golden, N H; Hatfield, J S; Toschik, P C; Lukei, R F; Hale, R C; Schmitz-Afonso, I; Rice, C P

    2004-07-01

    The Chesapeake Bay osprey population has more than doubled in size since restrictions were placed on the production and use of DDT and other toxic organochlorine contaminants in the 1970s. Ospreys are now nesting in the most highly polluted portions of the Bay. In 2000 and 2001, contaminant exposure and reproduction were monitored in ospreys nesting in regions of concern, including Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River, the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers, and the Elizabeth River, and a presumed reference site consisting of the South, West, and Rhode rivers. A "sample egg" from each study nest was collected for contaminant analysis, and the fate of eggs remaining in each nest (n = 14-16/site) was monitored at 7- to 10-day intervals from egg incubation through fledging of young. Ospreys fledged young in regions of concern (observed success: 0.88-1.53 fledglings/active nest), although productivity was marginal for sustaining local populations in Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River and in the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE and many other organochlorine pesticides or metabolites, total PCBs, some arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congeners and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners, and perfluorooctanesulfonate were often greater in sample eggs from regions of concern compared to the reference site. Nonetheless, logistic regression analyses did not provide evidence linking marginal productivity to p,p'-DDE, total PCBs, or arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congener exposure in regions of concern. In view of the moderate concentrations of total PCBs in eggs from the reference site, concerns related to new and emerging toxicants, and the absence of ecotoxicological data for terrestrial vertebrates in many Bay tributaries, a more thorough spatial evaluation of contaminant exposure in ospreys throughout the Chesapeake may be warranted.

  15. Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2017-08-01

    Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute

  16. Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Smith, Shawn H; Steenhof, Karen; McClure, Christopher J W; Heath, Julie A

    2017-01-01

    Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (β = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (β = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on

  17. Regional Changes in Extreme Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.; Snyder, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    This study focuses on California as a climatically complex region that is vulnerable to changes in water supply and delivery. A regional climate model is employed to assess changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation. Significant increases in daily minimum and maximum temperatures occur with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Increases in daily temperatures lead to increases in prolonged heat waves and length of the growing season. Changes in total and extreme precipitation vary by geographic region.

  18. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  19. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  20. Regional Climate Modeling at ZAMG and climate impact assessment for European ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, I.; Zuvela-Aloise, M.; Matulla, C.

    2010-09-01

    The Austrian society, policy, economy and environment request information on changes in the climate during the last years and especially for the near and remote future. Floodings, landslides, snow avalanches and storms belong to the natural hazards that highly impact Austria's socio-economic and environmental systems. In addition to already applied empirical regional modeling at ZAMG there was started dynamical regional climate modeling (RCM) with the COSMOS-CLM (CCLM, http://www.clm-community.eu/) at ZAMG in 2009. The main objective of the Austrian national project "reclip:century" (in cooperation with other Austrian Institutes) is to provide high resolved data sets of climate simulations for the GAR. A one-way double nesting approach is used. The domain used in the first step is Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.44° (50km). Within this simulation the GAR domain is nested having a resolution of 0.09° (10km). The output of these simulations will be evaluated within the project EVACLIM. This is to be done by comparing the output with a variety of regional scale observational datasets. The results of the simulations will be made available to the impact community. Within the international based project HABIT-CHANGE 10km-resolution climate scenarios will be generated. The data sets produced for two different regions the GAR and the Danube Delta - shall be used as a basis for the work of hydrology modelers and for the development of strategies for adaptation and mitigation Based on the CCLM simulations at ZAMG of about 0.03° (4km) spatial resolution for the Northeast of Austria, the project DISTURBANCE aims to develop integrated models for temperate Alpine forest ecosystems. Important tasks for the forest modeling are not only the assessment of changes in temperature, drought and windstorms but also the interactions between wind damages and bark beetle development which might impact the forest structure and its composition of species. In the project DATAPHEN

  1. Effects of climate and exurban development on nest predation and predator presence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA)

    Treesearch

    Heather A. Lumpkin; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

    2012-01-01

    In the eastern United States, land-use and climate change have likely contributed to declines in the abundance of Neotropical migrant birds that occupy forest interiors, but the mechanisms are not well understood. We conducted a nest-predation experiment in southern Appalachian Mountain forests (North Carolina, U.S.A.) during the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons to...

  2. Forecasting range expansion into ecological traps: climate-mediated shifts in sea turtle nesting beaches and human development.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A

    2013-10-01

    Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) was ca. 1000 km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty-five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (>1500 km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140 000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6-12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding-site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long-term conservation strategies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling for Lebanon, Eastern Mediterranean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katurji, Marwan; Soltanzadeh, Iman; Kuhnlein, Meike; Zawar-Reza, Peyman

    2013-04-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean coast consists of Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Israel and a small part of southern Turkey. The region lies between latitudes 30 degrees S and 40 degrees N, which makes its climate affected by westerly propagating wintertime cyclones spinning off mid-latitude troughs (December, January and February), while during summer (June, July and August) the area is strongly affected by the sub-tropical anti-cyclonic belt as a result of the descending air of the Hadley cell circulation system. The area is considered to be in a transitional zone between tropical to mid-latitude climate regimes, and having a coastal topography up to 3000 m in elevation (like in the Western Ranges of Lebanon), which emphasizes the complexity of climate variability in this area under future predictions of climate change. This research incorporates both regional climate numerical simulations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite derived and surface rain gauge rainfall data to evaluate the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 ability to represent both the mean and variance of observed precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, with emphasis on the Lebanese coastal terrain and mountain ranges. The adopted methodology involves dynamically down scaling climate data from reanalysis synoptic files through a double nesting procedure. The retrospective analysis of 13 years with both 50 and 10 km spatial resolution allows for the assessment of the model results on both a climate scale and specific high intensity precipitating events. The spatial averaged mean bias error in precipitation rate for the rainy season predicted by RegCM 50 and 10 km resolution grids was 0.13 and 0.004 mm hr-1 respectively. When correlating RegCM and TRMM precipitation rate for the domain covering Lebanon's coastal mountains, the root mean square error (RMSE) for the mean quantities over the 13-year period was only 0.03, while the RMSE for the standard deviation was higher by one

  4. Effects of climate and exurban development on nest predation and predator presence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA).

    PubMed

    Lumpkin, Heather A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2012-08-01

    In the eastern United States, land-use and climate change have likely contributed to declines in the abundance of Neotropical migrant birds that occupy forest interiors, but the mechanisms are not well understood. We conducted a nest-predation experiment in southern Appalachian Mountain forests (North Carolina, U.S.A.) during the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons to determine the effects of exurban development and temperature on predator presence and the average number of days until eggs in an artificial nest were disturbed by predators. We baited artificial nests with quail (Excalfactoria chinensi) eggs and monitored them for 18 days. We used clay eggs, track plates, and motion-triggered cameras to detect and identify nest predators. The average number of days a nest was undisturbed decreased as mean temperature increased and, to a lesser extent, as the density of buildings increased. Nests on the ground were more often depredated than those in trees, likely due to increased predation by opossum (Didelphis virginiana) and other carnivores. Raccoons (Procyon lotor), opossums, corvids (Corvus brachyrhynchos and Cyanocitta cristata), chipmunks (Tamias striatus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and domestic cats (Felis catus) were the most commonly detected predators. Presence of these predators did not vary as a function of mean temperature. Domestic cats and corvids were detected more frequently in plots with high rather than low densities of buildings. Forest-interior specialists and Neotropical migrants often nest in cool, high-elevation areas with low housing density. These bird species, especially those that nest on the ground, may be most vulnerable to increased nest predation if temperature and exurban development increase at higher elevations as anticipated.

  5. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  6. Regional Sun-Climate Interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.; Golbasi, O.

    It is a clear fact that the Earth's climate is changing since the pre-industrial era, especially during the last three decades. As a general assumption, this change is attributed to three main factors; greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and solar activity changes, although their shares on the climate change are not well established up to now. In this study, we deal with the question whether the solar activity affects the Earth's climate or not. We have chosen two parameters to check a possible relationship; the solar irradiance model data reconstructed by J. Lean and surface air temperatures of the Earth. For this investigation two countries were selected, one is the U.S.A and the other is Japan. The number of total stations used in this study is 80, 38 stations for U.S.A. and 42 stations for Japan. Our data cover the time period between 1905 - 2000 for the U.S.A. and 1900 - 1990 for Japan. Trends of these parameters show considerable agreement for the USA and good agreement for Japan. Their correlation coefficients are 42 % and 78 %, respectively. Both data sets show about similar periodicities. Our investigation shows that an effect of the Sun on the Earth's climate seems to exist.

  7. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  8. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  9. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual

  10. Seasonal climate hindcasts with Eta model nested in CPTEC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilotto, Isabel L.; Chou, Sin Chan; Nobre, Paulo

    2012-12-01

    This work evaluates the added value of the downscaling technique employed with the Eta model nested in the CPTEC atmospheric general circulation model and in the CPTEC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The focus is on the austral summer season, December-January-February, with three members each year. Precipitation, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation flux at the surface hindcast by the models are compared with observational data and model analyses. The global models generally overestimate the precipitation over South America and tropical Atlantic. The CGCM and the nested Eta (Eta + C) both produce a split in the ITCZ precipitation band. The Eta + C produces better precipitation pattern for the studied season. The Eta model reduces the excessive latent heat flux generated by these global models, in particular the Eta + C. Comparison against PIRATA buoys data shows that the Eta + C results in the smallest precipitation and shortwave radiation forecast errors. The Eta + C comparatively best results are though as a consequence of both: the regional model resolution/physics and smaller errors on the lateral boundary conditions provided by the CGCM.

  11. Region-wide trends of nesting ospreys in northwestern Mexico: a three-decade perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Henny, Charles J.; Anderson, Daniel W.; Vera, Aradit Castellanos; Cartron, Jean-Luc E.

    2008-01-01

    We used a double-sampling technique (air plus ground survey) in 2006, with partial double coverage, to estimate the present size of the Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting population in northwestern Mexico (coastal Baja California, islands in the Gulf of California, and coastal Sonora and Sinaloa). With the exception of Natividad, Cedros, and San Benitos islands along the Pacific coast of Baja California (all three excluded from our coverage in 2006 due to fog), this survey was a repeat of previous surveys conducted by us with the same protocol in 1977 and 1992/1993, allowing for estimates of regional population trends. The minimum population estimate for the area we surveyed in 2006 was 1343 nesting pairs, an 81% increase since 1977, but only a 3% increase since 1992/1993. The population on the Gulf side of Baja California generally remained stable during the three surveys (255, 236, and 252 pairs, respectively). The population of the Midriff Islands (Gulf of California in the vicinity of 29°N latitude) remained similar from 1992/1993 (308 pairs) to 2006 (289 pairs), but with notable population changes on the largest two islands (Guardian Angel: 45 to 105 pairs [133% increase]; Tiburón: 164 to 109 pairs [34% decrease]). The minimum estimated Osprey population on the Sonora mainland decreased in a manner similar to adjacent Isla Tiburón, i.e., by 26%, from 214 pairs in 1993 to 158 pairs in 2006. In contrast, the population in coastal Sinaloa, which had increased by 150% between 1977 and 1993, grew again by 58% between 1993 and 2006, from 180 to 285 pairs. Our survey confirmed previously described patterns of rapid population changes at a local level, coupled with apparent shifts in spatial distribution. The large ground-nesting population that until recently nested on two islands in San Ignacio Lagoon ( Pacific Ocean side, Baja California) was no longer present on the islands in 2006, but an equivalent number of pairs were found to the north and south of the

  12. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  13. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  14. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  15. Regional Climate Simulation Experiments with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takacs, Lawrence L.; Stein, Uri; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM has been recently developed and tested in a regional climate simulation mode. The SG-approach is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step to regional climate modeling. The region of interest with a uniform about 60 km resolution used in experiments is a rectangle over the U.S. The results of one annual as well as two-month simulations for the anomalous climate event of the U.S. drought of 1988, are validated against data analysis fields and diagnostics. The efficient regional down-scaling as well as the positive impact of fine regional resolution, are obtained. The SG-concept appeared to be a promising candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  16. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  17. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  18. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  19. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  20. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  1. Regional climate science: lessons and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P. W.; Miles, E. L.; Whitely Binder, L.

    2008-12-01

    Since its founding in 1995, the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington (UW) has achieved remarkable success at translating global- and regional-scale science into forms and products that are useful to, and used by, decision-makers. From GCM scenarios to research on the connection between global climate patterns and locally important factors like floods and wildfires, CIG's strong physical science foundation is matched by a vigorous and successful outreach program. As a result, CIG and its partner the Office of Washington State Climatologist at UW have made substantial progress at bridging the gap between climate science and decision-making, and are deeply involved in advising all levels of government and many business interests on adapting to climate variability and change. This talk will showcase some of the specific activities and tools, describe lessons learned, and illustrate how such efforts fit into a "National Climate Service."

  2. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  3. Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high

  4. Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamarque, J. F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D. T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions J.-F. Lamarque, A. M. Fiore and D. Shindell In this talk, we present the analysis of constant -forcing present-day simulations pertaining to the perturbation of SO2 emissions over the United States and China. Using 3 chemistry-climate models (CESM, GFDL and GISS), we show that the removal of SO2 anthropogenic emissions over each region leads to significant (at the 95% or above; significance is also assessed relative to internal variability as determined from a 200-year control simulation with perpetual year 2000 conditions) perturbations in temperature over multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere. While more limited, significant perturbations in regional precipitation are also found. While the overall (global and zonal means) forcing from Chinese emissions is similar to the US case, we found that the regional response to the emissions has different regional distributions.

  5. How Useful Are Regional Climate Models For Downscaling Seasonal Forecasts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Qian, J.; Moron, V.; Tippett, M.; Lucero, A.

    2010-12-01

    A longstanding yet very important question concerns the additional value derived from labor intensive regional climate models (RCMs) nested within GCM seasonal forecast models, over and above simple statistical methods of downscaling. This paper compares the two types of downscaling of precipitation "hindcasts" over the data-rich region of the Philippines, using observed data from 77 raingauges for the April-June monsoon onset season. Spatial interpolation of RCM and GCM grid box values to station locations is compared with cross-validated regression-based techniques such as canonical correlation analysis. The GCM "hindcasts" are formed from an ensemble of simulations from the ECHAM4.5 model at T42 resolution made with observed SSTs prescribed, over the 1977-2004 period. The RegCM3 with 25km resolution is nested within each of a 10-member GCM ensemble over the Philippines. To first order, we find that anomaly correlation skill at the station scale for simulations of seasonal total rainfall and monsoon onset date is quite similar using all the techniques considered, including simple spatial interpolation of the GCM values. The RCM has significantly smaller RMS error than the "raw" interpolated GCM, although statistical correction can greatly improve the latter. We examine the role of the availability of sufficiently long records of observed data as a deciding factor, which enters as a means to validate both types of the hindcasts, while being needed in addition to train the more "data hungry" statistical downscaling methods.

  6. A coupled regional climate-biosphere model for climate studies

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.; Winterkamp, J.; Barnes, F.; Roads, J.

    1996-04-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The objective of this project has been to develop and test a regional climate modeling system that couples a limited-area atmospheric code to a biosphere scheme that properly represents surface processes. The development phase has included investigations of the impact of variations in surface forcing parameters, meteorological input data resolution, and model grid resolution. The testing phase has included a multi-year simulation of the summer climate over the Southwest United States at higher resolution than previous studies. Averaged results from a nine summer month simulation demonstrate the capability of the regional climate model to produce a representative climatology of the Southwest. The results also show the importance of strong summertime thermal forcing of the surface in defining this climatology. These simulations allow us to observe the climate at much higher temporal and spatial resolutions than existing observational networks. The model also allows us to see the full three-dimensional state of the climate and thereby deduce the dominant physical processes at any particular time.

  7. RSL: A parallel Runtime System Library for regional atmospheric models with nesting

    SciTech Connect

    Michalakes, J.G.

    1997-08-01

    RSL is a parallel runtime system library developed at Argonne National Laboratory that is tailored to regular-grid atmospheric models with mesh refinement in the form of two-way interacting nested grids. RSL provides high-level stencil and interdomain communication, irregular domain decomposition, automatic local/global index translation, distributed I/O, and dynamic load balancing. RSL was used with Fortran90 to parallelize a well-known and widely used regional weather model, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale model.

  8. Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird.

    PubMed

    Tanner, Evan P; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A; Dahlgren, David K; Orange, Jeremy P

    2017-05-01

    Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are

  9. Regional Climate Downscaling Of African Climate Using A High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model: Validation And Future Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raj, J.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Bangalath, H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning require region specific information with high spatial resolution, since the climate and weather effects are directly felt at the local scale. While most of the state-of-the-art General Circulation Models lack adequate spatial resolution, regional climate models (RCM) used in a nested domain are generally incapable of incorporating the two-way exchanges between regional and global climate. In this study we use a very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model HiRAM, developed at NOAA GFDL, to investigate the regional climate changes over CORDEX African domain. The HiRAM simulations are performed with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, which is an ample resolution for regional climate simulation. HiRAM has the advantage of naturally describing interaction between regional and global climate. Historic (1975-2004) simulations and future (2007-2050) projections, with both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 pathways, are conducted in line with the CORDEX protocol. A coarse resolution sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed from the GFDL Earth System Model runs of IPPC AR5, as bottom boundary condition over ocean. The GFDL Land Surface Model (LM3) is employed to calculate physical processes at surface and in soil. The preliminary analysis of the performance of HiRAM, using historic runs, shows it reproduces the regional climate adequately well in comparison with observations. Significant improvement in the simulation of regional climate is evident in comparison with the coarse resolution driving model. Future projections predict an increase in atmospheric temperature over Africa with stronger warming in the subtropics than in tropics. A significant strengthening of West African Monsoon and a southward shift of the summer rainfall maxima over Africa is predicted in both RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

  10. Changes in vegetation structure in seeded nesting cover in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Higgins, K.F.; Barker, W.T.

    1982-01-01

    A sample of 365 stands of seeded nesting cover (mixtures of cool-season grasses and legumes) was studied in the glaciated prairie pothole region during 1977-79. Measurements of species composition, canopy cover, plant height, and visual obstruction values differed with stand age but only in a general way when results from over the entire region were pooled. Maximum values for plant height and visual obstruction occurred once per stand during the first 10 growing seasons. Although the year of maximum growth was variable and unpredictable, stands showed trends of degeneration in height and visual obstruction after the year of maximum growth.Seeded nesting cover grew similarly throughout the region when on soils of capability class IV or better and within a precipitation range of 30 to 61 cm. Precipitation was the factor that most affected stand growth, especially the amount received in the year before spring measurements. Height and visual obstruction values within a stand were also directly affected by some individual species and by the percentage of grass within a stand. In 2 of the 3 study years, the height and visual obstruction values of residual cover were extremely reduced by ice pack, heavy snow pack, or a combination of snow pack and harvest by rodents. Such events, if frequent, largely negate the possibility of using minimum visual obstruction or plant height measurements for assessing quality of vegetation for wildlife cover and management purposes.Species composition, number of species, and canopy cover varied most during the first three growing seasons and least during the next six. Succession toward dominance by native grasses and forbs and woody species was retarded by the predominance of the species of seeded nesting cover, at least during the first 10 growing seasons.All stands had at least one species present that was either a noxious weed, a problem cropland weed, or a nuisance weed. Weeds were usually local in distribution. Five weed species

  11. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  12. Assessing the effect of domain size over the Caribbean region using the PRECIS regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Centella-Artola, Abel; Taylor, Michael A.; Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo; Martinez-Castro, Daniel; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Vichot, Alejandro

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of the one-way nested PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) to domain size for the Caribbean region. Simulated regional rainfall patterns from experiments using three domains with horizontal resolution of 50 km are compared with ERA reanalysis and observed datasets to determine if there is an optimal RCM configuration with respect to domain size and the ability to reproduce important observed climate features in the Caribbean. Results are presented for the early wet season (May-July) and late wet season (August-October). There is a relative insensitivity to domain size for simulating some important features of the regional circulation and key rainfall characteristics e.g. the Caribbean low level jet and the mid summer drought (MSD). The downscaled precipitation has a systematically negative precipitation bias, even when the domain was extended to the African coast to better represent circulation associated with easterly waves and tropical cyclones. The implications for optimizing modelling efforts within resource-limited regions like the Caribbean are discussed especially in the context of the region's participation in global initiatives such as CORDEX.

  13. Atmosphere Processes Dynamic and Mountain Region Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davitashvili, T.; Khvedelidze, Z.; Javakhishvili, Kh.; Sharikadze, I.

    As is known, on the whole regional climate is depended on the Sun's lope relation to the horizon and the characteristics of the Earth relief. In the mountain regions (Caucasian region) compound relief conduce additional turbulence craetion and flow round stream increasing or decreasing. All that bring climate change special feature in the mountain regions. Climate formation and change internal factors are enough interconnected. We had study reverse connection between temperature, moisture, cloudness radiation balance, the Sun's activity and its components on the basis of the data over last 140 years. For the central months of the seasons, there was comparison day-night, monthly an annual motion of the radiation and temperature, temperature and Sun's activity, with account of cloud and moisture. Reverse connection between climate elements was valuated with help of correlation coefficient (r>0.8), but period of its reiteration analysis of the calculated fields the available natural data and the semiempirical calculation it was shown, that in the Western Georgia temperature was not increased unlike the Eastern Georgia.

  14. Regional Climate Model Sensitivity to Domain Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leduc, M.; Laprise, R.

    2006-05-01

    Regional Climate Models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). It is well known that the limited area over which a model integrates must be large enough to allow the full development of small scales features (Jones et al., 1995). On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large-scale nudging is applied (e.g., Castro and Pielke, 2005). Here the effects of domain size on the development of small-scales are examined using the "Big-Brother" approach developed by Denis et al. (2002). This method consists of generating a high-resolution simulation over a large domain (the Big-Brother). The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter based on discrete cosine transform (DCT; Denis et al., 2002) to emulate coarse-resolution LBCs that are usually taken from GCMs or reanalyses. A second simulation (the Little-Brother) is driven by the coarse-resolution LBCs and generates its own small-scale features inside the new smaller domain. Nested and added scales of the Little- Brother can then be compared with the Big-Brother (unfiltered) ones by using the DCT-filter again. Three February months (1990,1991 and 1992) were integrated over a continental grid (Big-Brother: 196x196 gridpoints) with a spatial resolution of 45 km covering almost the entire North-America. After filtering, this dataset is used to drive five simulations with varying domain size (48x48, 72x72, 96x96, 120x120 and 144x144) centred on the same geographic location; all other parameters are kept constant. Monthly statistics of the five Little-Brothers are compared with the virtual reference (Big-Brother) over the common domain (28x28) corresponding to the smallest Little-Brother but without its sponge zone. Results show that temporal correlation of large-scale events increases when the domain size is reduced from 144x144 to 48x48. For the same domain

  15. Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

  16. Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using NCEP/NCAR re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally-refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

  17. Regional downscaling of global climate runs for Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granerød, M.; Mesquita, M. D.; Basnayake, S.

    2011-12-01

    Nepal is a vulnerable country to changes in climate. This is mainly due to its dependency on water resources from the Himalayas. There is evidence of significant warming in Nepal, with an average trend of around +0.06 degrees Celsius per year. Studies have shown that the warming rates are higher in higher altitudes. Such temperature trend will have an impact on the melting of the glaciers and consequently on Nepal. Precipitation has also been observed to have increased, but not at the same magnitude as temperature. The water supply is affected by more unpredictable precipitation that can lead to droughts and shorter heavy rainfall. Future projections can give an indication whether these factors will affect river runoff, which can have large impacts on agriculture and in other sectors. Global Climate Models (GCMs) have a coarse resolution and limitations in the numerical and in the physical treatment. More detailed climate datasets are needed to produce climate projections for countries like Nepal. In this study, we use the climate version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (clWRF3.1.1, developed at the University of Cantabria, Spain), which is a regional climate model (RCM), to provide a more detailed description of future climate scenarios in Nepal. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model, ARPEGE, has been used to provide lateral boundary conditions for the model evaluation. A control simulation from 1970 to 2000, and 4 future climate scenario runs from 2030 to 2060 are created based on these data. The parent domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 48 km, covering the area 68 to 100 degrees East and 1 degree South to 38 degree North. The nested domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, covering the area 79 to 90 degree East and 25 to 32 degree North. Both domains are run with 37 vertical levels reaching up to 50 hPa. In the clWRF setup, the microphysical scheme used is the WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme and the cumulus option is the Grell

  18. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  19. Regional features of global climate change in the Carpathian Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pongrácz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Matyasovszky, I.; Schlanger, V.

    2003-04-01

    IPCC TAR suggests that eastern and central European countries could become highly vulnerable to global warming. Our investigations support these findings, especially, in case of two subregions: (1) Hungarian Great Plain, (2) watershed of the Lake Balaton. Severe shortage of precipitation occurred in the last few decades in both areas, thus, ecosystems must face to high risk of environmental change. The Great Plain is the largest agricultural area in Hungary where high variability of floods and droughts causes severe damages in crop yields and human settlements. Frequent extreme events may result in unstable climate conditions and increased vulnerability of agricultural activity in this region. One of the largest lake in Europe is the Lake Balaton with its unique 3.3 meter depth on average. In the last few years, the mean water level has decreased by 0.6-0.8 m several times for a few months period. The only outflow of the lake, a small creek (called Sio) has been regulated in 1863 in order to control the water runoff from the lake to the river Danube (120 km distance). The aim of our investigations is to compare climate change scenarios for these two sensitive regions. Two downscaling techniques have been compared, namely, (1) stochastical downscaling method nested in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs, (2) an upwelling diffusion energy balance model combined with GCM outputs and IPCC emission scenarios. The stochastical downscaling method includes large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, and also, it is able to represent the linkage between the local surface variables and large-scale circulation. Seasonal and annual changes in temperature and precipitation have been determined in case of the 2xCO2 climate and compared to historical data. Furthermore, several IPCC emission scenarios have been compared and GCM outputs have been analysed in order to project climate conditions for the 21st century in the Carpathian Basin.

  20. Regional Actions to Address Climate Change Impacts on Water

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's ten regions work to address climate change on a local level, implementing regionally important solutions and working with stakeholders on the ground. Many regional partners work closely with EPA to better implement climate solutions

  1. Nest-climatic factors affect the abundance of biting flies and their effects on nestling condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-de la Puente, Josué; Merino, Santiago; Lobato, Elisa; Aguilar, Juan Rivero-de; del Cerro, Sara; Ruiz-de-Castañeda, Rafael; Moreno, Juan

    2010-11-01

    The first step in the establishment of a host-biting fly relationship is host location. While a number of studies highlight the role of host emitted products as important cues affecting host location by biting flies, the role of host temperature is far from clear. We investigated the role of different nest microclimatic variables affecting the interaction between pied flycatchers and two biting flies: black flies and biting midges. Biting midge abundances increased with temperature inside the nest, supporting the potential importance of nest temperature as a cue used by insects to localize their hosts. The possibility that biting fly infestations were associated to ecological conditions in the vicinity of the nests is also discussed. Furthermore, we found a negative association between nestling weight (including tarsus length as a covariate in the analyses) and the interaction between the abundance of biting midges and the presence/absence of black flies in nests. The potential negative effect of these ectoparasites on nestling weight (condition index) and potential differences in the bird phenotypic/genetic quality associated with nest site choice and parasite infestations are considered.

  2. Shading and Watering as a Tool to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Sea Turtle Nests

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Jacob E.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2015-01-01

    Increasing sand temperatures resulting from climate change may negatively impact sea turtle nests by altering sex ratios and decreasing reproductive output. We analyzed the effect of nest shading and watering on sand temperatures as climate mitigation strategies in a beach hatchery at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. We set up plots and placed thermocouples at depths of 45cm and 75cm. Half of the plots were shaded and half were exposed to the sun. Within these exposure treatments, we applied three watering treatments over one month, replicating local climatic conditions experienced in this area. We also examined gravimetric water content of sand by collecting sand samples the day before watering began, the day after watering was complete, and one month after completion. Shading had the largest impact on sand temperature, followed by watering and depth. All watering treatments lowered sand temperature, but the effect varied with depth. Temperatures in plots that received water returned to control levels within 10 days after watering stopped. Water content increased at both depths in the two highest water treatments, and 30 days after the end of water application remained higher than plots with low water. While the impacts of watering on sand temperature dissipate rapidly after the end of application, the impacts on water content are much more lasting. Although less effective at lowering sand temperatures than shading, watering may benefit sea turtle clutches by offsetting negative impacts of low levels of rain in particularly dry areas. Prior to implementing such strategies, the natural conditions at the location of interest (e.g. clutch depth, environmental conditions, and beach characteristics) and natural hatchling sex ratios should be taken into consideration. These results provide insight into the effectiveness of nest shading and watering as climate mitigation techniques and illustrate important points of consideration in the crafting of such strategies. PMID

  3. Shading and watering as a tool to mitigate the impacts of climate change in sea turtle nests.

    PubMed

    Hill, Jacob E; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2015-01-01

    Increasing sand temperatures resulting from climate change may negatively impact sea turtle nests by altering sex ratios and decreasing reproductive output. We analyzed the effect of nest shading and watering on sand temperatures as climate mitigation strategies in a beach hatchery at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. We set up plots and placed thermocouples at depths of 45 cm and 75 cm. Half of the plots were shaded and half were exposed to the sun. Within these exposure treatments, we applied three watering treatments over one month, replicating local climatic conditions experienced in this area. We also examined gravimetric water content of sand by collecting sand samples the day before watering began, the day after watering was complete, and one month after completion. Shading had the largest impact on sand temperature, followed by watering and depth. All watering treatments lowered sand temperature, but the effect varied with depth. Temperatures in plots that received water returned to control levels within 10 days after watering stopped. Water content increased at both depths in the two highest water treatments, and 30 days after the end of water application remained higher than plots with low water. While the impacts of watering on sand temperature dissipate rapidly after the end of application, the impacts on water content are much more lasting. Although less effective at lowering sand temperatures than shading, watering may benefit sea turtle clutches by offsetting negative impacts of low levels of rain in particularly dry areas. Prior to implementing such strategies, the natural conditions at the location of interest (e.g. clutch depth, environmental conditions, and beach characteristics) and natural hatchling sex ratios should be taken into consideration. These results provide insight into the effectiveness of nest shading and watering as climate mitigation techniques and illustrate important points of consideration in the crafting of such strategies.

  4. Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obregón, A.; Nitsche, H.; Körber, M.; Kreis, A.; Bissolli, P.; Friedrich, K.; Rösner, S.

    2014-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

  5. The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, Mitchell T.; Karoly, David J.; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Dean, Sam M.; King, Andrew D.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Jones, Richard G.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.

    2016-09-01

    A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with well-constrained estimates of sampling uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia-New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the historical climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985-2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project are freely available to the broader research community.

  6. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  7. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  8. Regional climate downscaling: What's the point?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Wilby, Robert L.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamical and statistical downscaling of multidecadal global climate models provides finer spatial resolution information for climate impact assessments [Wilby and Fowler, 2010]. Increasingly, some scientists are using the language of "prediction" with respect to future regional climate change and impacts [e.g., Hurrell et al., 2009; Shapiro et al., 2010], yet others note serious reservations about the capability of downscaling to provide detailed, accurate predictions [see Kerr, 2011]. Dynamic downscaling is based on regional climate models (usually just the atmospheric part) that have finer horizontal grid resolution of surface features such as terrain [Castro et al., 2005]. Statistical downscaling uses transfer functions (e.g., regression relationships) representing observed relationships between larger-scale atmospheric variables and local quantities such as daily precipitation and/or temperature [Wilby and Fowler, 2010]. These approaches have been successful in improving the skill of numerical weather prediction. Statistical downscaling can also be used as the benchmark (the control) against which dynamic downscaling skill is judged [Landsea and Knaff, 2000

  9. GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured

  10. Evaluation of Local and Regional Phenomena in Regional Scale Climate Simulations (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotamarthi, V. R.; Wang, J.; Stein, M.; Ramachandran, S.

    2013-12-01

    Evaluation of regional scale climate models is aimed at capturing the ability of the model for capturing regional and local phenomena on climate scales. Climate variability on smaller spatial and temporal scales is a primary target, followed by extreme event climatology in space and time. We are exploring several new ways for evaluating the models at these scales and with a focus on capturing the spatio-temporal correlations in measurements and model results. Model simulations from 1980 to 2010 over a domain that covers much of North America (600 × 516 grid cells over longitude and latitude) at 12 km resolution using the Nested Regional Climate Model (WRF V3.3.1) were used as the model data set and observational data included PRISM, UDEL, CRU, TRMM and observations from individual stations. Some of these data sets were gridded to the model domain using an application developed by JPL. We have conducted a comparative evaluation of some of these data sets for precipitation and temperature to generate an estimate of the bias introduced by different evaluation data sets for model evaluation. The metrics used for model evaluation range from correlations between observations and model output over specified regions to novel space-time correlations in observations and model output. The space-time correlations were designed to test the model performance in producing correlated phenomena at scales ranging from half degree (50 km) to five degree (more than 500 km). The procedure used for generating these correlations and results from these tests will be presented.

  11. Path Dependence of Regional Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrington, Tyler; Zickfeld, Kirsten

    2013-04-01

    Path dependence of the climate response to CO2 forcing has been investigated from a global mean perspective, with evidence suggesting that long-term global mean temperature and precipitation changes are proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, and independent of emissions pathway. Little research, however, has been done on path dependence of regional climate changes, particularly in areas that could be affected by tipping points. Here, we utilize the UVic Earth System Climate Model version 2.9, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. It consists of a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model, coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and a thermodynamic energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere. This is then coupled with a terrestrial carbon cycle model and an ocean carbon-cycle model containing an inorganic carbon and marine ecosystem component. Model coverage is global with a zonal resolution of 3.6 degrees and meridional resolution of 1.8 degrees. The model is forced with idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1300 GtC, 2300 GtC, 3300 GtC, 4300 GtC, and 5300 GtC) to explore the path dependence of (and the possibility of hysteresis in) regional climate changes. Emission curves include both fossil carbon emissions and emissions from land use changes, and span a variety of peak and decline scenarios with varying emission rates, as well as overshoot and instantaneous pulse scenarios. Tipping points being explored include those responsible for the disappearance of summer Arctic sea-ice, the irreversible melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the dieback of the Amazonian Rainforest. Preliminary results suggest that global mean climate change after cessation of CO2 emissions is independent of the emissions pathway, only varying with total cumulative emissions, in accordance with results from earlier studies. Forthcoming analysis will investigate path

  12. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds, and neotropical migrants in particular, are found in lower abundance in small patches of forest in the Eastern United States compared to similar, but larger patches in the same region. A common hypothesis for the ...

  13. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds, and neotropical migrants in particular, are found in lower abundance in small patches of forest in the Eastern United States compared to similar, but larger patches in the same region. A common hypothesis for the ...

  14. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  15. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  16. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Treesearch

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  18. A framework for regional modeling of past climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sloan, L. C.

    2006-09-01

    The methods of reconstructing ancient climate information from the rock record are summarized, and the climate forcing factors that have been active at global and regional scales through Earth history are reviewed. In this context, the challenges and approaches to modeling past climates by using a regional climate model are discussed. A significant challenge to such modeling efforts arises if the time period of interest occurred prior to the past ˜3 5 million years, at which point land sea distributions and topography markedly different from present must be specified at the spatial resolution required by regional climate models. Creating these boundary conditions requires a high degree of geologic knowledge, and also depends greatly upon the global climate model driving conditions. Despite this and other challenges, regional climate models represent an important and unique tool for paleoclimate investigations. Application of regional climate models to paleoclimate studies may provide another way to assess the overall performance of regional climate models.

  19. EURO-CORDEX regional climate models: Performance over Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stilinović, Tomislav; Güttler, Ivan; Srnec, Lidija; Branković, Čedo

    2017-04-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are high-resolution version of a global climate models (GCMs) designed to achieve simulations at horizontal resolutions relevant for human activities on local and regional spatial scales, and to simulate relevant processes in historical and potential future climate conditions. In this study, a set of experiments the EURO-CORDEX simulations are evaluated over the Mediterranean region. All simulations were made at the two horizontal resolutions (50 km and 12.5 km) and compared with gridded pan-European gridded dataset E-OBSv11 at the regular 0.25°×0.25° grid for the two periods (1989-2008 for the ERA-Interim-driven ensemble of simulations; 1971-2000 for the GCMs-driven ensemble of simulations). We will evaluate the impacts of (1) the boundary conditions, (2) different horizontal resolutions (0.44°/50 km vs. 0.11°/12.5 km), and (3) the impact of convective parametrization on systematic errors, specialy in case of the RegCM4 model extensively used at DHMZ. For each simulation commonly used evaluation metrics are applied. They include: (1) spatially-averaged differences between RCMs and observations, (2) the spatial 95 th percentiles of simulated and observed temperature and precipitation, (3) spatial correlation coefficients between models and observations, (4) the ratio of spatial standard deviations between simulated and observed fields, and (5) the Spearman rank correlations between simulated and observed time-series of spatially-averaged temperature and precipitation. As commonly found in other studies, the total precipitation in RCM simulations is often overestimated and spatial correlations are noticeably lower than for temperature. The results highlight that, the RegCM4 is able to capture the (observed) spatial variability of the Mediterranean temperature climate. This is indicated by high spatial correlations with values larger than 0.9 and values of normalized standard deviation below 1 for Mediterranean region. The results

  20. Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

    2014-05-01

    In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

  1. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  2. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  3. Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

  4. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    PubMed Central

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-01-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference. PMID:28936474

  5. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-07-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  6. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  7. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  8. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  9. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  11. Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Wuyin; Zhang, Minghua; He, Juanxiong; Jiao, Xiangmin; Chen, Ying; Colle, Brian; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Liu, Ping; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Leung, Ruby

    2013-07-12

    Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation Community Earth System Model (CESM). The integrated WRF/CESM system is intended as one method of global climate modeling with regional simulation capabilities. It allows interactive dynamical regional downscaling in the computational flow of present or future global climate simulations. This capability substantially simplifies the process of dynamical downscaling by avoiding massive intermediate model outputs at high frequency that are typically required for offline regional downscaling. The inline coupling also has the advantage of higher temporal resolution for the interaction between regional and global model components. With the aid of the inline coupling, a capability has also been developed to ingest other global climate simulations (by CESM or other models), which otherwise may not have necessary intermediate outputs for regional downscaling, to realize their embedded regional details. It is accomplished by relaxing the global atmospheric state of the integrated model to that of the source simulations with an appropriate time scale. This capability has the potential to open a new venue for ensemble regional climate simulations using a single modeling system. Furthermore, this new modeling system provides an effective modeling framework for the studies of physical and dynamical feedbacks of regional weather phenomena to the large scale circulation. The projected uses of this capability include the research of up-scaling effect of regional weather system, and its use as an alternative physical representation of sub-scale processes in coarser-resolution climate models.

  12. Regional climates in GCMs. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Crane, R.G.

    1995-12-31

    This research describes empirical methods developed to obtain short-term, regional results from global climate models. Observational data sets were compared to the GENESIS climate model; spatial and temporal variability were examined to validate the circulation model on the synoptic scale. A feed-forward neural network was used to determine transfer functions for circulation-precipitation relationships. The empirical methodologies derived were then applied to the analysis of mountain snowpack in the upper Colorado Basin. The comparison of observational data and the model showed that the synoptic scale circulation of the GENESIS model is realistic over the eastern United States; however, the model features are displaced south by about five degrees and actual pressures in the model are much lower than observed pressures. Preliminary results from the neural network produced correlations between observed and predicted rainfall of about 0.7 to 0.8, depending on the net configuration. Similar results were obtained for the upper Colorado Basin study in the prediction of winter snowfall. 6 refs., 3 figs.

  13. Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fangxing; Bradley, Raymond S.; Rawlins, Michael A.

    2014-07-01

    A high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. Different types of uncertainties in climate simulations are examined by driving the RCM with different boundary data, applying different emissions scenarios, and running an ensemble of simulations with different initial conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and K-means clustering analysis are applied to divide the northeastern US region into four climatologically different zones based on the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation variability. The RCM simulations tend to overestimate SAT, especially over the northern part of the domain in winter and over the western part in summer. Statistically significant increases in seasonal SAT under both higher and lower emissions scenarios over the whole RCM domain suggest the robustness of future warming. Most parts of the northeastern US region will experience increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer precipitation, though the changes are not statistically significant. The greater magnitude of the projected temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century under the higher emissions scenario emphasizes the essential role of emissions choices in determining the potential future climate change.

  14. The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, S. V.

    2016-02-01

    Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast

  15. Ant-nest ichnofossils in honeycomb calcretes, Neogene Ogallala Formation, High Plains region of western Kansas, U.S.A.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, J.J.; Platt, B.F.; Ludvigson, Greg A.; Thomasson, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    Two new ant-nest trace fossils are described from calcic sandy paleosols of the Neogene Ogallala Formation in western Kansas. The ichnofossils are preserved within and below calcrete beds weathering in positive relief as carbonate-filled casts or as cavities in negative relief. Daimoniobarax ichnogenus nov. is established for burrow systems composed of vertically tiered, horizontally oriented pancake-shaped chambers connected by predominantly vertical and cylindrical shafts ~. 0.8. cm in diameter. Ichnospecies of Daimoniobarax are differentiated based on differences in the plan view outline of chambers, shaft orientation, and junctions between chambers and shafts.Daimoniobarax nephroides ichnospecies nov. is composed of an ~. 24-76. cm long vertical sequence of distinctly lobed chambers (~. 2-20. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) arranged along sinuous to helical shafts. Chamber shape in plan view ranges from small teardrops to larger kidney- and U-shaped forms. Shafts intersect at chamber edges such that chambers appear to bud from the central shafts. Daimoniobarax nephroides is most similar to the nests of extant seed-harvester ants of the New World genus Pogonomyrmex. Such ants are specialized granivores and prefer sandy soils in arid to semi-arid grassland and desert regions.Daimoniobarax tschinkeli ichnospecies nov. is ~. 30-80. cm in vertical extent. Chambers (~. 2-30. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) are circular to elongate or pseudopodial in plan view. Vertical shafts are straight to slightly sinuous and intersect most often toward the center of the chambers. The generalized architecture of D. tschinkeli is similar to that of the nests or nest portions of several extant ant genera, though it does not closely resemble any known modern nest.Ant ichnofossils provide valuable information on hidden biodiversity, paleohydrologic regimes, paleopedogenic processes, and paleoclimate during the time of nest occupation. Depth-related changes in chamber size and vertical spacing

  16. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  17. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  18. Using survival analysis of artificial and Real Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri) nests to model site level and nest site factors associated with nest success in the South Okanagan region of Canada

    Treesearch

    Pam Krannitz Kym Welstead

    2005-01-01

    Predation is the predominant cause of nest failure for the Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri breweri), a provincially red-listed shrub-steppe species that has experienced significant declines throughout most of its range. We monitored Brewer’s Sparrow nests and conducted an artificial nest experiment, in the South Okanagan Valley,...

  19. Streamflow Simulations for the Mississippi River Basin Based on Ensemble Regional Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Jha, M.; Takle, E. S.; Gu, R.

    2004-12-01

    Ensemble simulations provide a useful tool for studying uncertainties in climate projections and for deriving probabilistic information from deterministic forecasts. Although a number of studies have examined variability within climate models, fewer have quantified the extent to which variability and uncertainty in climate simulations then propagates through impacts models. Here we evaluate the variability in simulated streamflow that result from taking the streamflow model's inputs from different members of an ensemble of simulations by a decadal-scale nested regional climate model. The regional climate model, RegCM3, simulated a domain covering the continental U.S. and most of Mexico for the period 1986-2003 using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2. Three RegCM3 realizations were created, each initialized one month apart but otherwise identical in configuration so that their collective behavior provides a measure of internal variability of the climate model. RegCM3 output for daily precipitation, temperature, and radiation were then used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) over the upper Mississippi River basin. Seasonal and interannual variability of SWAT-predicted streamflow indicate that the internal variability of the RegCM3 climate model carries through to produce spread in simulated streamflow from SWAT.

  20. Climate change and temperature-linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site.

    PubMed

    Laloë, Jacques-Olivier; Cozens, Jacquie; Renom, Berta; Taxonera, Albert; Hays, Graeme C

    2017-11-01

    The study of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery-the Cape Verde Islands-we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long-term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature-dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature-linked hatchling mortalities. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  2. Population size and trends for nesting ospreys in northwestern Mexico: Region-wide surveys, 1977, 1992/1993 and 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Henny, Charles J.; Anderson, Daniel W.; Vera, Aradit Castellanos; Carton, Jean-Luc E.

    2007-01-01

    We used a double-sampling technique (air plus ground survey) in 2006, with partial double coverage, to estimate the present size of the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting population in northwestern Mexico. With the exception of Natividad, Cedros, and San Benito Islands along the Pacific Coast of Baja California, all three excluded from our coverage in 2006 due to fog, this survey was a repeat of previous surveys conducted by us with the same protocol in 1977 and 1992/1993 (Baja California surveyed in 1992, Sonora and Sinaloa 1993), allowing for estimates of regional population trends. Population estimates at the 'time of aerial survey' include those nesting, but missed from the air. The population estimate for our coverage area in 2006 was 1,343 nesting pairs, or an 81% increase since 1977, but only a 3% increase since 1992/1993. The population on the Gulf side of Baja California generally remained stable during the three surveys (255, 236 and 252 pairs, respectively). The overall Midriff Islands population remained similar from 1992/1993 (308 pairs) to 2006 (289 pairs), but with notable population changes on the largest two islands (Isla Angel de la Guarda: 45 to 105 pairs [+ 60 pairs]; Isla Tiburon: 164 to 109 pairs [- 55 pairs, or -34%]). The estimated osprey population on the Sonora mainland decreased in a manner similar to adjacent Isla Tiburon, i.e., by 26%, from 214 pairs in 1993 to 158 pairs in 2006. In contrast, the population in Sinaloa, which had increased by 150% between 1977 and 1993, grew again by 58% between 1993 and 2006, from 180 to 285 pairs. Our survey confirmed previously described patterns of rapid population changes at a local level, coupled with apparent shifts in spatial distribution. The large ground nesting population that until recently nested on two islands in San Ignacio Lagoon was no longer present on the islands in 2006, but an equivalent number of pairs were found to the north and south of the lagoon, nesting in small towns and along

  3. Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

    Treesearch

    Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

    2012-01-01

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

  4. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  5. CMS-Wave Model: Part 3: Grid Nesting and Application Example for Rhode Island South Shore Regional Sediment Management Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-07-01

    grid nesting capability of the Coastal Modeling System ( CMS ) wave model CMS -Wave availa- ble in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Surface-water...Martin, 2004). The motivation behind RISRSM is to identify the sediment pathways in a system at a regional scale for management of sediment based on...a system approach. The RISRSM is developing a management plan for sediments along the project study area that consists of a 38 km stretch of

  6. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ): MODELING OZONE SENSITIVITIES TO FUTURE CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using global and regional modeling tools, predictions of future climate and ozone concentrations are developed for the continental United States. Results suggest that future changes in climate will contribute to an increase in ozone concentrations; however, the future changes in...

  7. Added value of regional climate modeling over areas characterized by complex terrain—Precipitation over the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika

    2015-05-01

    We present an analysis of the added value (AV) of downscaling via regional climate model (RCM) nesting with respect to the driving global climate models (GCMs). We analyze ensembles of driving GCM and nested RCM (two resolutions, 0.44° and 0.11°) simulations for the late 20th and late 21st centuries from the CMIP5, EURO-CORDEX, and MED-CORDEX experiments, with a focus on the Alpine region. Different metrics of AV are investigated, measuring aspects of precipitation where substantial AV can be expected in mountainous terrains: spatial pattern of mean precipitation, daily precipitation intensity distribution, and daily precipitation extremes tails. Comparison with a high-quality, fine-scale (5 km) gridded observational data set shows substantial AV of RCM downscaling for all metrics selected, and results are mostly improved compared to the driving GCMs also when the RCM fields are upscaled at the scale of the GCM resolution. We also find consistent improvements in the high-resolution (0.11°) versus medium-resolution (0.44°) RCM simulations. Finally, we find that the RCM downscaling substantially modulates the GCM-produced precipitation change signal in future climate projections, particularly in terms of fine-scale spatial pattern associated with the complex topography of the region. Our results thus point to the important role that high-resolution nested RCMs can play in the study of climate change over areas characterized by complex topographical features.

  8. Climate change projections of medicanes with a large multi-model ensemble of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romera, Raquel; Gaertner, Miguel Ángel; Sánchez, Enrique; Domínguez, Marta; González-Alemán, Juan Jesús; Miglietta, Mario Marcello

    2017-04-01

    Cyclones with tropical characteristics, usually called medicanes, occasionally develop over the Mediterranean Sea. Possible future changes of medicanes are a matter of concern due to their large damage potential. Here we analyse a large set of climate change projections with regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project. The aim is to increase our knowledge about the future evolution of medicanes, advancing previous studies along several important lines: use of a large ensemble of RCMs, nested in many different GCMs, and covering a long continuous time period (up to 150 years). The main overall results are a future reduction in the number of medicanes and an increase in the intensity of the strongest medicanes, in agreement with other studies. But the large size of the ensemble reveals some important model-related uncertainties. The frequency decrease is not statistically significant in many of the subset of simulations that extend to 2100, with two simulations even showing no frequency decrease at all. Large decadal changes affect the frequency of medicanes, emphasizing the need for long period simulations. The increase in extreme intensity shows a clear dependence on the GCM driving the simulations. In contrast to the overall results, a few simulations also show changes in the monthly distribution of medicanes, with less winter cases and more autumn and late summer cases. Some environmental variables have been explored in an attempt to offer physical explanations for these results. A plausible reason for the overall decrease of the frequency of medicanes is the projected increase in vertical static stability of the atmosphere. A relevant result is that the general and clear increase in average static stability is unable to stop several simulations projecting higher maximum winds in the future. This could indicate that the increased SST and latent heat fluxes may overcome the limitation of a higher overall static stability, if favourable conditions for

  9. A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Suarez, Max J.

    2000-01-01

    The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  10. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  11. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2014-09-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  12. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  13. Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

    1999-01-01

    The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  14. Regional Climate Studies with Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid GCMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.

  15. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  16. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  17. Testing the Effects of Increased Horizontal Resolution in a Regional Climate Model for a Climatically Vulnerable Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L. C.; Bell, J. L.

    2002-12-01

    The need for high-resolution simulations of modern and future climates has driven the use of regional climate models in recent years. Regional climate models use a much higher horizontal resolution than global climate models, allowing more detailed investigations of climate at scales of importance to a wider range of parties. Here we explore the effects of increased horizontal resolution on the simulation of climate over the Western U. S. We performed three experiments of modern day climate, using the same boundary conditions, at three different horizontal resolutions, 20 km, 30 km, and 40 km. We compared the experiments with observations of climate and with each other in order to evaluate any improvement or lack of improvement in using the higher resolution. Initial comparisons suggest that a 20 km resolution produces more accurate snow and precipitation results, with temperature results being more similar and accurate between the 20 and 30 km cases.

  18. Regionally nested patterns of fish assemblages in floodplain lakes of the Magdalena river (Colombia).

    PubMed

    Granado-Lorencio, Carlos; Serna, Andrés Hernández; Carvajal, Juan David; Jiménez-Segura, Luz Fernanda; Gulfo, Alejandra; Alvarez, Frank

    2012-06-01

    We investigated if fish assemblages in neotropical floodplain lakes (cienagas) exhibit nestedness, and thus offer support to the managers of natural resources of the area for their decision making. The location was floodplain lakes of the middle section of the Magdalena river, Colombia. We applied the nested subset analysis for the series of 30 cienagas (27 connected to the main river and three isolated). All fish were identified taxonomically in the field and the matrix for presence-absence in all the lakes was used for the study of the pattern of nestedness. The most diverse order was Characiformes (20 species), followed by Siluriformes (19 species). Characidae and Loricaridae were the richest families. The species found in all the lakes studied were migratory species (17), and sedentary species (33). Two species (Caquetaia kraussii and Cyphocharax magdalenae) were widespread across the cienagas archipelago (100% of incidence). Nestedness analysis showed that the distribution of species over the spatial gradient studied (840 km) is significantly nested. The cienagas deemed the most hospitable were Simiti, El Llanito, and Canaletal. Roughly, 13 out of the 50 species caught show markedly idiosyncratic distributions. The resulting dataset showed a strong pattern of nestedness in the distribution of Magdalenese fishes, and differed significantly from random species assemblages. Out of all the measurements taken in the cienagas, only the size (area) and local richness are significantly related to the range of order of nested subset patterns (r=-0.59 and -0.90, respectively, at p < 0.01). Differential species extinction is suggested as the cause of a nested species assemblage, when the reorganized matrix of species occurring in habitat islands is correlated with the island area. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis.

  19. Regionally nested patterns of fish assemblages in floodplain lakes of the Magdalena river (Colombia)

    PubMed Central

    Granado-Lorencio, Carlos; Serna, Andrés Hernández; Carvajal, Juan David; Jiménez-Segura, Luz Fernanda; Gulfo, Alejandra; Alvarez, Frank

    2012-01-01

    We investigated if fish assemblages in neotropical floodplain lakes (cienagas) exhibit nestedness, and thus offer support to the managers of natural resources of the area for their decision making. The location was floodplain lakes of the middle section of the Magdalena river, Colombia. We applied the nested subset analysis for the series of 30 cienagas (27 connected to the main river and three isolated). All fish were identified taxonomically in the field and the matrix for presence–absence in all the lakes was used for the study of the pattern of nestedness. The most diverse order was Characiformes (20 species), followed by Siluriformes (19 species). Characidae and Loricaridae were the richest families. The species found in all the lakes studied were migratory species (17), and sedentary species (33). Two species (Caquetaia kraussii and Cyphocharax magdalenae) were widespread across the cienagas archipelago (100% of incidence). Nestedness analysis showed that the distribution of species over the spatial gradient studied (840 km) is significantly nested. The cienagas deemed the most hospitable were Simiti, El Llanito, and Canaletal. Roughly, 13 out of the 50 species caught show markedly idiosyncratic distributions. The resulting dataset showed a strong pattern of nestedness in the distribution of Magdalenese fishes, and differed significantly from random species assemblages. Out of all the measurements taken in the cienagas, only the size (area) and local richness are significantly related to the range of order of nested subset patterns (r=–0.59 and –0.90, respectively, at p < 0.01). Differential species extinction is suggested as the cause of a nested species assemblage, when the reorganized matrix of species occurring in habitat islands is correlated with the island area. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. PMID:22833801

  20. Determination of the extra buffering distance in the one-way nesting procedure for the regional ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Jin Hwan; Pham, Van Sy

    2017-04-01

    The Big-Brother Experiment (BBE) evaluates the effect of domain size on the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) in the downscaling and nesting from the ocean global circulation (OGCMs). The BBE first establishes a mimic ocean global circulation models (M-OGCMs) data and employs a ORCM to simulate for a highly resolved large domain. This M-OGCM's results were then filtered to remove short scales then used for boundary and initial conditions of the nested ORCMs, which have the same resolution to the M-OGCMs. The various sizes of domain were embedded in the M-OGCMs and the cases were simulated to see the effect of domain size with the extra buffering distance to the results of the ORCMs. The diagnostic variables including temperature, salinity and vorticity of the nested domain are then compared with those of the M-OGCMs before filtering. Differences between them can address the errors associating with the sizes of the domain, which are not attributed unambiguously to models errors or observational errors. The results showed that domain size significantly impacts on the results of ORCMs. As the domain size of the ORCM becomes lager, the distance of the extra space between the area of interest and the updated LBCs increases. So, the results of ORCMs perform more highly correlated with the M-OGCM. But, there are a certain optimal sizes of the OGCMs, which could be larger than nested ORCMs' domain size from 2 to 10 times, depending on the computational costs. Key words: domain size, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

  1. weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Bowery, Andy; Haustein, Karsten; Massey, Neil R.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David C. H.; Wilson, Simon; Allen, Myles R.

    2017-05-01

    Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales.

  2. The Pacific Islands Regional Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamond, Howard J.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. GCOS Program [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/usgcos/index.htm htm] at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov] is involved in working to implement a sustainable and robust GCOS observing network for international atmospheric, oceanographic, and terrestrial climate observing. The U.S. GCOS support philosophy is based upon a three-tiered approach involving a series of international, regional, and bi-lateral project efforts. One of the most active and important areas of involvement is in the Pacific Ocean region where we leverage support for this via formal climate bilateral agreements that the U.S. has with both Australia and New Zealand. NCDC and the U.S. GCOS Program Manager serve as the NOAA and U.S. lead on these bilateral climate agreements. This paper will describe the efforts undertaken in the Pacific region towards developing a more sustainable and robust GCOS observing ground-based network for atmospheric, oceanographic, and terrestrial climate observing in the region. The paper will describe the actions to date, plans for the future, and how the efforts to date such as the establishment of a virtual Regional Climate Center for the region in order to, among other things, work towards improving data availability and access for and from the nations in the region in order to improve climate services across the region. NCDC is also interested in developing partnerships for installing U.S. Climate Reference Network [see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn] equipment to be part of a global long-term climate reference network for improving climate information from more data sparse tropical and high-elevation areas. In order to properly document this, a full description of the overall climate observations program in the U.S. is required.

  3. The Pacific Islands Regional Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamond, Howard J.

    2008-12-01

    The U.S. GCOS Program [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/usgcos/index.htm htm] at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov] is involved in working to implement a sustainable and robust GCOS observing network for international atmospheric, oceanographic, and terrestrial climate observing. The U.S. GCOS support philosophy is based upon a three-tiered approach involving a series of international, regional, and bi-lateral project efforts. One of the most active and important areas of involvement is in the Pacific Ocean region where we leverage support for this via formal climate bilateral agreements that the U.S. has with both Australia and New Zealand. NCDC and the U.S. GCOS Program Manager serve as the NOAA and U.S. lead on these bilateral climate agreements. This paper will describe the efforts undertaken in the Pacific region towards developing a more sustainable and robust GCOS observing ground-based network for atmospheric, oceanographic, and terrestrial climate observing in the region. The paper will describe the actions to date, plans for the future, and how the efforts to date such as the establishment of a virtual Regional Climate Center for the region in order to, among other things, work towards improving data availability and access for and from the nations in the region in order to improve climate services across the region. NCDC is also interested in developing partnerships for installing U.S. Climate Reference Network [see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn] equipment to be part of a global long-term climate reference network for improving climate information from more data sparse tropical and high-elevation areas. In order to properly document this, a full description of the overall climate observations program in the U.S. is required.

  4. [Climatic suitability of single cropping rice planting region in China].

    PubMed

    Duan, Ju-Qi; Zhou, Guang-Sheng

    2012-02-01

    To clarify the leading climate factors affecting the distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China at national and annual temporal scales and to reveal the potential distribution and climatic suitability divisions of this planting region in China could not only provide scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of single cropping rice production, modifying planting pattern, and introducing fine varieties, but also ensure the food security of China. In this paper, the potential climate factors affecting the single cropping rice distribution in China at regional and annual scales were selected from related literatures, and the single cropping rice geographic information from the national agro-meteorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and spatial analyst function of Arc-GIS software, were adopted to clarify the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, and to construct a model about the relationships between the potential distribution of the planting region and the climate. The results showed that annual precipitation, moisture index, and days of not less than 18 degrees C stably were the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, with their cumulative contribution rate reached 94.5% of all candidate climate factors. The model constructed in this paper could well simulate the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China. According to the appearance frequency, the low, medium and high climatic suitability divisions of single cropping rice planting region in China were clarified, and the climate characteristics of the planting region in each climatic suitability division were analyzed.

  5. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  6. Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

    2010-06-01

    Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

  7. Strengthening Climate Services Capabilities and Regional Engagement at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, E.

    2008-12-01

    The demand for sector-based climate information is rapidly expanding. In order to support this demand, it is crucial that climate information is managed in an effective, efficient, and user-conscious manner. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is working closely with numerous partners to develop a comprehensive interface that is authoritative, accessible, and responsive to a variety of sectors, stakeholders, and other users. This talk will explore these dynamics and activities, with additional perspectives on climate services derived from the regional and global experiences of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center in the Pacific. The author will explore the importance of engaging partners and customers in the development, implementation and emergence of a national climate service program. The presentation will draw on the author's experience in climate science and risk management programs in the Pacific, development of regional and national climate services programs and insights emerging from climate services development efforts in NCDC. In this context, the author will briefly discuss some of guiding principles for effective climate services and applications including: - Early and continuous dialogue, partnership and collaboration with users/customers; - Establishing and sustaining trust and credibility through a program of shared learning and joint problem- solving; - Understanding the societal context for climate risk management and using a problem-focused approach to the development of products and services; - Addressing information needs along a continuum of timescales from extreme events to long-term change; and - Embedding education, outreach and communications activities as critical program elements in effective climate services. By way of examples, the author will reference lessons learned from: early Pacific Island climate forecast applications and climate assessment activities; the implementation of the Pacific Climate

  8. Strong biotic influences on regional patterns of climate regulation services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serna-Chavez, H. M.; Swenson, N. G.; Weiser, M. D.; van Loon, E. E.; Bouten, W.; Davidson, M. D.; van Bodegom, P. M.

    2017-05-01

    Climate regulation services from forests are an important leverage in global-change mitigation treaties. Like most ecosystem services, climate regulation is the product of various ecological phenomena with unique spatial features. Elucidating which abiotic and biotic factors relate to spatial patterns of climate regulation services advances our understanding of what underlies climate-mitigation potential and its variation within and across ecosystems. Here we quantify and contrast the statistical relations between climate regulation services (albedo and evapotranspiration, primary productivity, and soil carbon) and abiotic and biotic factors. We focus on 16,955 forest plots in a regional extent across the eastern United States. We find the statistical effects of forest litter and understory carbon on climate regulation services to be as strong as those of temperature-precipitation interactions. These biotic factors likely influence climate regulation through changes in vegetation and canopy density, radiance scattering, and decomposition rates. We also find a moderate relation between leaf nitrogen traits and primary productivity at this regional scale. The statistical relation between climate regulation and temperature-precipitation ranges, seasonality, and climatic thresholds highlights a strong feedback with global climate change. Our assessment suggests the expression of strong biotic influences on climate regulation services at a regional, temperate extent. Biotic homogenization and management practices manipulating forest structure and succession will likely strongly impact climate-mitigation potential. The identity, strength, and direction of primary influences differed for each process involved in climate regulation. Hence, different abiotic and biotic factors are needed to monitor and quantify the full climate-mitigation potential of temperate forest ecosystems.

  9. Bias-Correction of Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation in NA-CORDEX Regional Climate Model Output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGinnis, S. A.; Mearns, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate model outputs typically contain significant biases that can hinder their use in impacts analysis. Frequently, these biases are non-linear, and have a greater effect in the tails of the distribution than they do near the mean. Extremes of temperature and precipitation also have a disproportionate effect on the impacts of climate, making it important to understand and correct biases across the entire distribution of values for use in climate change impacts analysis.Analysis of various bias correction methodologies by Teutschbein & Seibert (2012) showed that distribution mapping has the best overall performance. Further work by McGinnis, et al. (2015) has shown that kernel density distribution mapping (KDDM) outperforms other distribution mapping techniques, and that it provides effective correction of extremes that simple mean and variance adjustments cannot.We use KDDM to bias-correct daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from NA-CORDEX, the North American branch of CORDEX, the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment, which nests high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) within general circulation models (GCMs) over a limited domain. We bias-correct the model output against the University of Idaho's METDATA high-resolution gridded daily observational dataset (Abatzoglou, 2012). We then examine the resulting changes to the climate change signal in the bulk and in the tails of the distribution of values.The structure of the NA-CORDEX experiment allows us to compare the effects of bias correction on the climate change signal at two different spatial resolutions (25 km and 50 km), for different emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and for multiple different combinations of regional climate model and driving global model.

  10. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  11. Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate Change in California: Integrated Climate Forcing from Vegetation Redistribution, Using a New Regional Climate Model Configuration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subin, Z. M.; Jin, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Riley, W. J.; Svehla, D. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2008-12-01

    Changes in ecosystems due to climate change or from climate mitigation measures may trigger follow-on changes in regional climate. We applied a coupled mesoscale climate and land surface model (WRF-CLM) to evaluate potential climate-ecosystem feedbacks in California, quantifying the effects of predicted vegetation changes on California's climate. We investigated the sensitivity of regional climate predictions to vegetation change using three different vegetation distributions and a historical and future climate model scenario. Our results indicate that vegetation change alone can lead to temperature changes ranging from a 1° C decrease to a 3° C increase in snow-free regions, depending on location and vegetation-type change. For example, a shift from mixed grassland to C4 -dominated grassland in the northern Central Valley causes a 1-3° C increase in July afternoon temperatures, while a shift in northwest California from coniferous forest to mixed forest and xeromorphic woodland causes a cooling of 0.5-1° C. These effects result from a complex interplay of changes in the albedo, evapotranspiration, emissivity, surface roughness, and other vegetation characteristics. Moreover, our results suggest that expected vegetation change can cause substantial shifts in Sierra snow cover. Afforestation on the scale proposed by policy-makers may have effects on climate as well; our simulations indicate that replacing shrubland with forest can result in local temperature decreases of 2° C in snow-free regions but increases of comparable magnitude in regions of marginal snow cover. We conclude that the types of vegetation changes predicted to occur in California due to climate change and afforestation will modify predicted future climate in the State, potentially amplifying it in sensitive regions like the northern Central Valley. However, in relatively snow-free regions, afforestation may provide regional climate benefits by moderating future temperature increases.

  12. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  13. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

    2017-02-01

    The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

  14. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  15. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  16. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  17. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  18. Building a Regional Collaborative for Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherba, O.; Carlton, C.

    2015-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has a strong community of environmental educators with an articulated interest in expanding, elevating, and strengthening climate change programming. Based in this community, a group of educators identified a strong need for and interest in collaborating to increase capacity and knowledge, support pilot testing, and implement climate change best practices in educational and interpretive programs. Since its inception, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative has brought together over 25 organizations, ranging from wildlife refuges to nonprofit education centers and city park agencies. While still in its nascent phase, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative exemplifies the power of collective impact. With the backbone support of the Institute at the Golden Gate, the Collaborative has developed a common agenda and is making strides towards developing common measures of success. The initial development stages of this group present an interesting case study and highlight some of the challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned for others seeking to build their own collective impact initiative.

  19. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  20. The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence from the IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports indicate that extreme climate events are increasing in many regions of the world. Interestingly, the nature and causes of the changes in extremes may be expressed differently for the global and regional scales, and also amongst climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). For instance, over the last several decades the temperature probability density function on the global scale exhibits a mean shift to the warmer side, as opposed to a change in it's variability. Conversely, the interannual variability of precipitation is intensifying on the regional scale, especially over the U.S. during spring. Although the statistical characteristics of the temperature and precipitation changes may have a varied expression they both contribute to the potential for increases in extreme events. The causes and physical mechanisms for the intensification of mean global temperature and regional precipitation variability are explored using observationally constrained datasets and non-traditional climate model approaches.

  1. Sensitivity of ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeem, I.; Formayer, H.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climate simulations require lateral boundary conditions. These are typically reanalysis of past observations or alternatively, output from climate general circulation models. Lateral boundary conditions are available at various temporal and spatial resolutions. At present, spatial resolution of reanalysis datasets ranges from few kilometers, for example, regional reanalysis limited to only single continent, to the coarser but global datasets like ECMWF 40 Years Re-Analysis. While these datasets represent reasonable analyses of 3-D atmospheric as well as surface conditions, their resolutions, the physics of the models used to generate them, and the means of assimilating data into them can produce very different results when used as boundary conditions for regional climate models. The sensitivity of ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to different lateral boundary conditions was investigated over the Alpine region. The model was run directly at 10km horizontal resolution as well as in one-way double nested mode, with a 30 km grid point spacing mother domain encompassing the Europe and a 10 km grid point spacing nested domain covering the Alpine Region. The simulations spans the one-year period of 1989. The boundary conditions used for various simulations were ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim, 0.75° and 1.5° grid spacings, 6-h intervals), the ECMWF 40 Years Re-Analysis (ERA40, 1° and 2.5° grid spacings, 6-h interval) and finally the 2.5°, 6-h NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2). Sea Surface Temperature for the simulated periods were obtained from a UK Met Office Global Ocean Surface Temperature (GISST), a set of SST data in monthly 1° area grids. When recently released ERA-Interim Reanalysis, which is based on a recent release of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS Cy31r2) containing many improvements both in the forecasting model and analysis methodology, was used as lateral and boundary conditions, the simulated precipitation field

  2. A regional climate simulation study with land cover dynamics in Northern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hanjie; Ju, Yongmao; Li, Jianyun; Qiu, Guoyu

    2007-09-01

    A social-economic database based on the Governmental Statistical Annals, county-to-county investigation, literature verification, as well as the satellite identification was completed recently by the Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center, Beijing Normal University of China. The GIS Operational System handing this database not only provides details of the social, ecological, and economic information of the Northern China's 13 provinces since earlier 1950s, but also gives out predictions of these information by 2050 with different sceneries concerning the population increase, land use variation, governmental policy adjusting, administrating capability, science and technology development, National GDP increment, as well as world climate change. Aims at further regional climate simulation study, there is a special module nested in the GIS Operational System that interprets the county-level administrative data-units to a 60 × 60 km numerical mesh-grid suitable for climate model. By incorporating the land use dynamics provided by the above database, the new generation of the Regional Integrate Environment Modeling System (RIEMS2.0) was used for climate simulation study. The preliminary simulation studies show that: (1) the regional climate will be affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed; (2) the integrate impact of the LULC variation on climate (such as temperature, humidity and net long-wave radiation, precipitation) is not only limited to the Northern China where LULC varies, but also to the whole numerical domain where the LULC does not vary at all; (3) the ecological construction engineering implemented in Northern China including the Green-Great Wall construction engineering, the replace farming with forestry and grass movement, and the natural forest conservation etc has shown and will work positively on the eco-environment improvement, particularly shown as the increased

  3. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2014-09-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of India

  4. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  5. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  6. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  7. Nested PCR to detect and distinguish the sympatric filarial species Onchocerca volvulus, Mansonella ozzardi and Mansonella perstans in the Amazon Region.

    PubMed

    Tang, Thuy-Huong Ta; López-Vélez, Rogelio; Lanza, Marta; Shelley, Anthony John; Rubio, Jose Miguel; Luz, Sérgio Luiz Bessa

    2010-09-01

    We present filaria-nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which is based on amplification of first internal transcribed spacer rDNA to distinguish three parasitic filarial species (Onchocerca volvulus, Mansonella ozzardi and Mansonella perstans) that can be found in the Amazon Region. Nested PCR-based identifications yielded the same results as those utilizing morphological characters. Nested PCR is highly sensitive and specific and it detects low-level infections in both humans and vectors. No cross-amplifications were observed with various other blood parasites and no false-positive results were obtained with the nested PCR. The method works efficiently with whole-blood, blood-spot and skin biopsy samples. Our method may thus be suitable for assessing the efficacy of filaria control programmes in Amazonia by recording parasite infections in both the human host and the vector. By specifically differentiating the major sympatric species of filaria, this technique could also enhance epidemiological research in the region.

  8. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Andreu-Burillo, I.; Chikamoto, Y.; García-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Kimoto, M.; Mochizuki, T.; Rodrigues, L. R. L.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

    2013-04-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  9. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

    PubMed Central

    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Andreu-Burillo, I.; Chikamoto, Y.; García-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Kimoto, M.; Mochizuki, T.; Rodrigues, L. R. L.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions. PMID:23591882

  10. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.

    PubMed

    Doblas-Reyes, F J; Andreu-Burillo, I; Chikamoto, Y; García-Serrano, J; Guemas, V; Kimoto, M; Mochizuki, T; Rodrigues, L R L; van Oldenborgh, G J

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  11. Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Winds for Regional Climate Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovce, Gary J.; Lerner, Jeffery A.; Iwai, Hisaki; Haines, Stephanie

    1999-01-01

    The retrieval of winds and humidity in the upper-troposphere has matured to the point where it may now be possible to better understand and diagnose regional climate variations from geostationary satellites than from conventional measurements or model analysis, especially in data sparse regions. In this poster paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursor and other detectable interannual climate signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions (from conventional measurements) are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions which are currently poorly sampled.

  12. Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Winds for Regional Climate Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovce, Gary J.; Lerner, Jeffery A.; Iwai, Hisaki; Haines, Stephanie

    1999-01-01

    The retrieval of winds and humidity in the upper-troposphere has matured to the point where it may now be possible to better understand and diagnose regional climate variations from geostationary satellites than from conventional measurements or model analysis, especially in data sparse regions. In this poster paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursor and other detectable interannual climate signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions (from conventional measurements) are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions which are currently poorly sampled.

  13. Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

    2013-05-01

    In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

  14. Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forcey, G.M.; Linz, G.M.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Bleier, W.J.

    2007-01-01

    Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

  15. Mu-opioid receptor densities are depleted in regions implicated in agonistic and sexual behavior in male European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) defending nest sites and courting females.

    PubMed

    Kelm, Cynthia A; Forbes-Lorman, Robin M; Auger, Catherine J; Riters, Lauren V

    2011-05-16

    Social status and resource availability can strongly influence individual behavioral responses to conspecifics. In European starlings, males that acquire nest sites sing in response to females and dominate other males. Males without nest sites sing, but not to females, and they do not interact agonistically with other males. Little is known about the neural regulation of status- or resource-appropriate behavioral responses to conspecifics. Opioid neuropeptides are implicated in birdsong and agonistic behavior, suggesting that opioids may underlie differences in the production of these behaviors in males with and without nest sites. Here, we examined densities of immunolabeled mu-opioid receptors in groups of male starlings. Males that defended nest boxes dominated other males and sang at higher rates when presented with a female than males without nest boxes, independent of testosterone concentrations. Multiple regression analyses showed nest box ownership (not agonistic behavior or singing) predicted the optical density of receptor labeling in the medial bed nucleus of stria terminalis, paraventricular nucleus, ventral tegmental area and the medial preoptic nucleus. Compared to males without nest boxes, males with nest boxes had lower densities of immunolabeled mu-opioid receptors in these regions. Singing additionally predicted the area covered by labeling in the ventral tegmental area. The results suggest that elevated opioid activity in these regions suppresses courtship and agonistic behavioral responses to conspecifics in males without nest boxes. The findings are consistent with a dynamic role for opioid receptors in adjusting social behavior so that it is appropriate given the resources available to an individual. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Attributing regional effects of the 2014 Jordanian extreme drought to external climate drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergaoui, Karim; Mitchell, Dann; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Otto, Friederike; McDonnell, Rachael; Dadson, Simon; Allen, Myles

    2015-04-01

    Throughout 2014, the regions of Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria have experienced a persistent draught with clear impacts on the local populations. In this study we perform an extreme event attribution analysis of how such a draught has changed under climate change, with a specific focus on the flow rate of the Upper Jordan river and the water level of Lake Tiberious (AKA the Sea of Galilee). Both of which hold major societal, political and religious importance. To perform the analysis we make use of distributed computing power to run thousands of modelled years of 2014 with slightly different initial conditions. We use an atmosphere only model (HadAM3p) with a nested 50 km regional model covering Africa and the Middle East. The 50 km model atmospheric variables will be used directly to force offline our 1 km LIS surface model. Two separate experiments and simulations are performed, 1. for all known climate forcings that are present in 2014, and 2. for a naturalised 2014 scenario where we assume humans never impacted the climate. We perform sensitivity analyses on the observed precipitation over the regions of interest, and determine that the TRMM data is in good agreement with station data obtained from the Jordanian Ministry of Water. Using a combination of the TRMM and model data we are able to make clear statements on the attribution of a 2014-like extreme draught event to human causal factors.

  17. Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

  18. Climate model parameter sensitivity and selection for incorporating uncertainty in regional climate modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, S.; Mote, P.; Rupp, D. E.; McNeall, D. J.; Sarah, S.; Hawkins, L.

    2016-12-01

    Many processes - especially those involving clouds - that control climate responses to external forcings are still poorly understood, poorly modeled, and/or difficult to observe in nature. As such, model parameterizations representing these processes have large uncertainties. Therefore, even a Global Climate Model (GCM)'s `standard' configuration, which has been tuned to reproduce observed climate well, is subject to large uncertainty. To explore the influence of different parameter selections on regional climate, a large global/regional atmospheric perturbed physics ensemble was run using the volunteer computing network weather@home with the goal of finding model variants that have small top-of-atmosphere flux imbalance. This configuration reasonably reproduces the observed climates across the western US, while retaining the possibility of a range regional climate sensitivities. After this screening step, a subset of these parameter perturbations are used when downscaling the global model simulations with an embedded regional climate model. This work aims to identify model parameters that influence the quality of regional simulations, improve global and regional model performance through improved model parameterizations, and quantify uncertainty in downscaled simulations stemming from error in model parameterizations.

  19. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  20. Protecting Health from Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Tanja; Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    “How far are we in the WHO European Region in implementing action to counter the health impacts of climate change?” This was the question posed to representatives of Member States in the WHO European Region of in the WHO working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive 2012 questionnaire that focused on eight thematic areas (governance; vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments (VIA); adaptation strategies and action plans; climate change mitigation; strengthening health systems; raising awareness and building capacity; greening health services; and sharing best practices). Strong development has been in climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of national health adaptation plans, greening health systems, sharing best practices and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in other sectors. At the Fifth Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health in Parma, Itatly in 2010, the European Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by the fifty-three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire present the most comprehensive assessment so far of progress made by European Member States to protect public health from climate change since the Parma Conference agreements. PMID:24937528

  1. Regional climate model performance in the Lake Victoria basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Karina; Chamberlain, Jill; Buontempo, Carlo; Bain, Caroline

    2015-03-01

    Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, plays a crucial role in the hydrology of equatorial eastern Africa. Understanding how climate change may alter rainfall and evaporation patterns is thus of vital importance for the economic development and the livelihood of the region. Regional rainfall distribution appears, up to a large extent, to be controlled by local drivers which may be not well resolved in general circulation model simulations. We investigate the performance over the Lake Victoria basin of an ensemble of UK Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3P) simulations at 50 km, driven by five members of the Hadley Centre global perturbed-physics ensemble (QUMP). This is part of the validation of an ensemble of simulations that has been used to assess the impacts of climate change over the continent over the period 1950-2099. We find that the regional climate model is able to simulate a lake/land breeze over Lake Victoria, which is a significant improvement over the driving global climate model and a vital step towards reproducing precipitation characteristics in the region. The local precipitation correlates well with large-scale processes in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, which is in agreement with observations. We find that the spatial pattern of precipitation in the region and the diurnal cycle of convection is well represented although the amount of rainfall over the lake appears to be overestimated in most seasons. Reducing the observational uncertainty in precipitation over the lake through future field campaigns would enable this model bias to be better quantified. We conclude that increasing the spatial resolution of the model significantly improves its ability to simulate the current climate of the Lake Victoria basin. We suggest that, despite the higher computational costs, the inclusion of a model which allows two-way interactions between the lake and its surroundings should be seriously considered for

  2. Drought analysis according to shifting of climate zones to arid climate zone over Asia monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Son, Kyung-Hwan; Bae, Deg-Hyo

    2015-10-01

    When a humid region is affected by arid climate, significant changes in drought characteristics occur due to imbalance of water budget. In this study, change in drought characteristics according to shift of different climates i.e. tropical, warm temperate, cold and polar to Arid Climate (SAC) was analyzed over the Asia monsoon region. Climate zones and the SAC regions were identified by applying the Köppen climate classification on hydro-meteorological data for the period of 1963-2006. The analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters revealed that the annual precipitation and runoff in the SAC regions appeared to decrease about 12.1% and 27.3%, respectively, while annual average temperature increased about 0.5 °C. Standardized runoff index (SRI) was calculated using model-driven runoff data. The trend and change point analyses of SRI were performed to evaluate the changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity) before and after shifting of the different climates to arid climate. The results revealed strong decreasing trend of SRI and hence intensified drought conditions for the SAC regions. A change point year of drought occurred about 3-5 years earlier than the shifting time of the SAC region. Frequency and duration of droughts in the SAC regions were observed to increase about 9.2 and 1.5 months, respectively, and drought severity index intensified to about -0.15. It can be concluded that analysis of shifting to arid climate zones should be considered together with changes in drought characteristics, because the drought characteristics and changing arid climate zones are closely related to each other.

  3. Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Portmann, Robert W.; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan; Knutti, Reto

    2012-03-01

    Evidence is strong that the changes observed in the Earth's globally averaged temperature over the past half-century are caused to a large degree by human activities. Efforts to document accompanying precipitation changes in observations have met with limited success, and have been primarily focussed on large-scale regions in order to reduce the relative impact of the natural variability of precipitation as compared to any potential forced change. Studies have not been able to identify statistically significant changes in observed precipitation on small spatial scales. General circulation climate models offer the possibility to extend the analysis of precipitation changes into the future, to determine when simulated changes may emerge from the simulated variability locally as well as regionally. Here we estimate the global temperature increase needed for the precipitation “signal” to emerge from the “noise” of interannual variability within various climatic regions during their wet season. The climatic regions are defined based on cluster analysis. The dry season is not included due to poor model performance as compared to measurements during the observational period. We find that at least a 1.4°C warmer climate compared with the early 20th century is needed for precipitation changes to become statistically significant in any of the analysed climate regions. By the end of this century, it is likely that many land regions will experience statistically significant mean precipitation changes during wet season relative to the early 20th century based on an A1B scenario.

  4. NOAA Regional Climate Services: Southern Region Opportunities, Challenges, and First Steps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    This paper highlights the early opportunities, challenges, and success stories that have emerged in NOAA's regional climate services program in the Southern Region in 2010-2011. A range of partnership opportunities are present within this geography, incorporating NOAA's climate services portfolio as well as external partners including federal, state, and local agencies, tribal and nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. Building capacity for new and enhanced climate services within these partnerships is frequently challenged by institutional structures, funding constraints, and uncoordinated parallel efforts; however, there is broad momentum among the partners to work collaboratively to remove these challenges. Early climate services success stories in 2010 and 2011 from within the Southern Region are highlighted, such as those centered on the historic South Central U.S. drought, the building of climate practitioner capacity in the Gulf of Mexico, and the initiation of new climate services engagement in the Caribbean.

  5. Site selection and nest survival of the Bar-Headed Goose (Anser indicus) on the Mongolian Plateau

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Batbayar, Nyambayar; Takekawa, John Y.; Natsagdorj, Tseveenmyadag; Spragens, Kyle A.; Xiao, Xiamgming

    2014-01-01

    Waterbirds breeding on the Mongolian Plateau in Central Asia must find suitable wetland areas for nesting in a semiarid region characterized by highly variable water conditions. The first systematic nesting study of a waterbird dependent on this region for breeding was conducted on the Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus). The purpose of this study was to document Bar-headed Goose nesting locations, characterize nests and nesting strategies, and estimate daily nest survival (n = 235 nests) from eight areas of west-central Mongolia across three summers (2009–2011) using a modified Mayfield estimator. Bar-headed Goose daily nest survival ranged from 0.94 to 0.98, with a 3-year average nest success of 42.6% during incubation. Bar-headed Geese were found to primarily nest on isolated pond and lake islands as previously reported, but were also documented regularly, though less frequently, along rocky cliffs in several regions of west-central Mongolia. Daily nest survival was higher for cliff nests than for island nests. Information-theoretic models indicated that nest survival decreased with nest age and varied annually with changing environmental conditions. Results of this study suggest that while Bar-headed Geese primarily rely on nesting island sites these sites may be more susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and predation events influenced by seasonal variation in environmental conditions, and that higher daily nest survival values documented for the less frequent cliff nest strategy may provide an important alternative strategy during poor island nest success years. Thus, conservation efforts for this and other waterbird species in the semiarid region should be focused on conserving nesting islands and protecting them from disturbance in areas of high livestock densities experiencing a rapidly warming climate.

  6. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Anex, Robert P.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gelder, Brian K.; Khanal, Sami; Herzmann, Daryl E.; Gassman, Phillip W.

    2013-03-01

    The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems.

  7. Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges

    PubMed Central

    Kueppers, Lara M.; Snyder, Mark A.; Sloan, Lisa C.; Zavaleta, Erika S.; Fulfrost, Brian

    2005-01-01

    In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output may be better suited to predicting shifts by restricted species, particularly in regions with complex topography or other regionally important climate-forcing factors. Using a RCM-based future climate scenario, we found that potential ranges of two California endemic oaks, Quercus douglasii and Quercus lobata, shrink considerably (to 59% and 54% of modern potential range sizes, respectively) and shift northward. This result is markedly different from that obtained by using a comparable GCM-based scenario, under which these species retain 81% and 73% of their modern potential range sizes, respectively. The difference between RCM- and GCM-based scenarios is due to greater warming and larger precipitation decreases during the growing season predicted by the RCM in these species' potential ranges. Based on the modeled regional climate change, <50% of protected land area currently containing these species is expected to contain them under a future midrange “business-as-usual” path of greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:16260750

  8. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "LUCAS - Land Use & Climate Across Scales" - a new initiative on coordinated regional land use change and climate experiments for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rechid, Diana; Davin, Edouard; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Katragkou, Eleni

    2017-04-01

    The new project LUCAS (Land Use & Climate Across Scales) was initiated jointly by EURO-CORDEX and LUCID (Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts) and has been endorsed by WCRP CORDEX as a flagship pilot study. The overall objective of LUCAS is to identify robust biophysical impacts of land use changes on climate across regional to local spatial scales and at various time scales from extreme events to multiple decades. In this context, land use changes (LUC) refer to anthropogenic land cover conversions as well as land management practises. We identified major science questions to be addressed: • How large is the relative contribution of LUC to detected past and potential future climate trends? • How do land use practices modulate climate variability? Can local LUC reduce or amplify extreme climate conditions? • What is the effect of spatial resolution on the magnitude and robustness of LUC-induced climate changes? • How sensitive are the regional climate models to LUC and how is this interrelated to land-atmosphere coupling in different regions among the suite of models? In order to derive robust answers, we initiate a new era of coordinated regional climate model (RCM) ensemble LUC experiments on high spatial resolutions based on consistent land use dynamics for the past and the future. We include a new generation of RCMs which couple regional atmosphere interactively with further components of the regional earth system, e.g. terrestrial biosphere and hydrosphere. Land use pathways will be chosen in cooperation with land use modelling experts. The multi-model experiments will be conducted over multiple gridded nests to refine the continental simulations down to resolutions below 5 km. Simulated variables and fine-scale processes will be evaluated against multi-variable observations from flux towers, satellite sensors and new airborne and spaceborn radar techniques. In this conference contribution, we will present the overall framework of the

  9. Nesting Instincts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenman, Geri

    2003-01-01

    Describes an art project where beginning drawing students used values and chiaroscuro techniques to draw bird nests. Explains how the students observed the nest that was displayed in the art classroom. Discusses the steps involved in creating the artworks. (CMK)

  10. Nesting Instincts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenman, Geri

    2003-01-01

    Describes an art project where beginning drawing students used values and chiaroscuro techniques to draw bird nests. Explains how the students observed the nest that was displayed in the art classroom. Discusses the steps involved in creating the artworks. (CMK)

  11. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. A catalog of moisture sources for continental climatic regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieto, Raquel; Castillo, Rodrigo; Drumond, Anita; Gimeno, Luis

    2014-06-01

    This technical note describes a catalog of moisture sources for two sets of continental climatic regions: one based on regions with similar late 20th century mean climate and similar projected late 21st century precipitation changes, and the other widely used in IPCC assessment reports. By illustrating with one region by classification, the European one was selected and we identify and characterize all the major sources of moisture, and analyze their interannual variability and the role of the three dominant modes of global climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM, SAM). We also estimate the influence of those oceanic regions that will see the greatest increases in evaporation rate in future years.

  13. Atmospheric and Climate Aspects of Russian Regions Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golitsyn, G. S.; Dubovsky, S. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Mokhov, I. I.; Khomyakov, P. M.

    Russia is one of the first countries created the national program of sustainable devel- opment. The Presidential Decree SOn the national strategy of the Russian Federation & cedil;in the environment protection and sustainable developmentT was issued by in 1994. Atmospheric and climate aspects play very important roles in the sustainable devel- opment at the regional level in Russia as well as at national one. Last year Russian Academy of Sciences in collaboration with some leaders of the local Russian au- thorities started the Project SSustainable development of Russia and its regionsT. In & cedil; this project the problems of Russian socio-economical development are considered together with regional atmospheric and climate changes, environmental and natural resources, population, urbanization, energetic and new technology development, and so on. The main problems of Russian regions socio-economical development related to global and local climate changes, environmental and natural resources, urbanization will be discussed.

  14. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

  15. Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

    2010-05-05

    Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in

  16. Variable-Resolution GCMs for Regional Climate Modeling: Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, M.; Cote, J.; Dugas, B.; Deque, M.; McGregor, J.

    2006-05-01

    Variable-resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced resolution over the region(s) of interest have proven to be an established approach to regional climate modeling providing an efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales. This approach has been used since the early-mid 90s by the French, U.S., Canadian, Australian and other climate modeling groups along with the widely-used nested-grid approach. The important advantages of SG-GCMs are that they do not require any lateral boundary conditions/forcing and are free of the associated undesirable computational problems. SG-GCMs provide self-consistent interactions between global and regional scales, while a high quality of global circulation is preserved. The international SGMIP-1 (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project, phase-1), using SG-GCMs developed at the major centers/groups in Australia, Canada, France, and the U.S., has been successfully conducted in 2002-2005. The results of the 12-year (1987-1998) climate simulations for a major part of North America are available at the SGMIP web site: http://essic.umd.edu/~foxrab/sgmip.html, and are described in [1]. The multi-model SGMIP-1 regional climate simulations were conducted with enhanced 0.45 - 0.5 degree regional resolution for SG-GCMs, with the same or a similar number of global grid points as in a 1 x 1 degree global grid. The SGMIP-1 SG-GCM simulations were analyzed in terms of studying the impact of high regional resolution on efficient downscaling to realistic mesoscales and regional climate variability. We focused mostly on studying the quality of the multi-model ensemble results. The SGMIP-1 multi-model ensemble results for the region compare well with reanalysis and observations, in terms of spatial and temporal diagnostics. The next SGMIP phase, SGMIP-2 (phase-2), includes comparisons of high resolution stretched and uniform grid GCMs. These SGMIP-2 experiments provide the possibility for a comprehensive analysis of enhanced

  17. The Integration of Climate Science and Collaborative Processes in Building Regional Climate Resiliency in Southeast Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurado, J.

    2016-12-01

    Southeast Florida is widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise. Dense urban populations, low land elevations, flat topography, complex shorelines and a porous geology all contribute to the region's challenges. Regional and local governments have been working collaboratively to address shared climate mitigation and adaptation concerns as part of the four-county Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (Compact). This partnership has emphasized, in part, the use of climate data and the development of advanced technical tools and visualizations to help inform decision-making, improve communications, and guide investments. Prominent work products have included regional vulnerability maps and assessments, a unified sea level rise projection for southeast Florida, the development and application of hydrologic models in scenario planning, interdisciplinary resilient redesign planning workshops, and the development of regional climate indicators. Key to the Compact's efforts has been the engagement and expertise of academic and agency partners, including a formal collaboration between the Florida Climate Institute and the Compact to improve research and project collaborations focused on southeast Florida. This presentation will focus on the collaborative processes and work products that have served to accelerate resiliency planning and investments in southeast Florida, with specific examples of how local governments are using these work products to modernize agency processes, and build support among residents and business leaders.

  18. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  19. Verification of regional climate models over the territory of Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krakovska, S.; Palamarchuk, L.; Shedemenko, I.; Djukel, G.; Gnatjuk, N.

    2009-04-01

    Verification of regional climate models (RCMs) over the territory of Ukraine was the first stage of the National project for assessment of possible climate change and its impact on the economic and social life in Ukraine in XXI century. Since Ukraine has pretty different climates in different parts, the territory of Ukraine was divided on 11 regions with more or less uniform climate conditions: 7 almost equal in space regions in plain terrain, 2 - in coastal zones near the Black and Azov seas and 2 - in the Carpathian and the Crimean mountains. Verification of RCMs for climate characteristics was carried out for each defined region separately. Data of meteorological network in Ukraine (187 stations) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU 10-min global data-set) for multy-year monthly, season and annual means of temperature and precipitation for the period 1961-90 were used for verification of models' results. Two RCMs were used in the analysis of the past climate of Ukraine: REMO (MPI-M, Hamburg) and RegCM3 (ICTP, Trieste). Both models were constructed with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-40 data-set with horizontal spacing of ~25 km and vertically 27 (REMO) and 18 (RegCM3) Z-σ levels. In a whole, both models demonstrated better ability for temperature than precipitation characteristics. Very high correlation of 0.9 was found between models, network and CRU for temperatures and 0.7-0.8 for precipitation. Generally, models were warmer especially for summer months up to 2 oC. More precipitation in the models was found for winter season and less - for summer and in the mountainous subregions comparably with observations. In perspective we intend to run RCMs initialized with GCMs for the same period and for XXI century and account for the obtained systematic models' errors in the analysis of possible climate change over the territory of Ukraine.

  20. Projections of African drought extremes in CORDEX regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik

    2013-04-01

    We investigate trends in drought extremes for different climate regions of the African continent over a combined historical and future period 1951-2100. Eight CMIP5 coupled atmospheric global climate models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR) under two forcing scenarios, the relative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with spatial resolution varying from about 1° to 3° are downscaled to 0.44° resolution by the Rossby Centre (SMHI) regional climate model RCA4. We use data from the ensuing ensembles of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations to explore three drought indices namely: standardized precipitation index (SPI), moisture index (MI) and difference in precipitation and evaporation (P-E). Meteorological and agricultural drought conditions are assessed in our analyses and a climate change signal is obtained for the SPI by calculating gamma functions for future SPI with respect to a baseline present climate. Results for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are inter-compared to assess uncertainties in the future projections. We show that there is a pronounced sensitivity to the choice of forcing GCM which indicates that assessments of future drought conditions in Africa would benefit from large model ensembles. We also note that the results are sensitive to the choice of drought index. We discuss both spatial and temporal variability of drought extremes for different climate zones of Africa and the importance of the ensemble mean. Our study highlights the usefulness of CORDEX simulations in identifying possible future impacts of climate at local and regional scales.

  1. Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

    2014-06-16

    "How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

  2. The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, J.; Heinzeller, D.; Klein, C.; Dieng, D.; Smiatek, G.; Bliefernicht, J.; Sylla, M. B.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of its climate services is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios for the region of West Africa. In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the dissemination of the data. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about a novel precipitation database used to verify the models. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX project. As an example, the figure shows the different climate change signals obtained for the total annual rainfall with respect to the 1980-2010 mean (WRF-E: WASCAL 12km high-resolution run MPI-ESM + WRFV3.5.1, CORDEX-E: 50km medium-resolution run MPI-ESM + RCA4, CORDEX-G: 50km medium-resolution run GFDL-ESM + RCA4).

  3. Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2012-12-01

    The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that

  4. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O'Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-07-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250-1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m-2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway.

  5. A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butts, Michael B.; Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens K.; Williams, Karina; Mathison, Camilla; Jessen, Oluf Z.; Riegels, Niels D.; Glennie, Paul; McSweeney, Carol; Wilson, Mark; Jones, Richard; Seid, Abdulkarim H.

    2016-10-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

  6. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  7. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  8. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  9. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of Earth tempering as a practice and of specific Earth sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground are included. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 20 locations in the United States.

  10. Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, Mariana M P B; Pike, David A; Dimatteo, Andrew; Wallace, Bryan P

    2013-05-01

    Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN-SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate-related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate-related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter- and intra-species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.

  11. Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

  12. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  13. Recent droughts and effect of climate change on climate extremes in the East African region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

    2016-12-01

    East Africa is a region that has been affected by droughts, floods, famine one too many times. 2015 was one of the worst droughts in the region in decades and created a food crisis in the region leading to 15 million people needing food and water assistance. In a region where the climate resilience of the society is low, understanding of the climate and how it's changing is very important. Unfortunately, only a few studies have been done in this area. In this study we looked at the recent droughts in the region and analyzed the trends in relation to historical data. A combination of remote sensing products like TRMM, GPM and MERRA were used in conjunction with gridded observed products like CPC as well as gauge observations to carry out the analysis. The second part of the analysis focused on how climate change will affect the climate extremes in the region focusing on precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration. 20 selected GCMs from CMIP5 were used at a daily timescale to look at climate extremes. Changes in daily intensity of precipitation, seasonal shifts and total rainfall were analyzed for mid-century and end of the century RCP 6.0 scenario and compared to the historical figures. In addition, daily extreme temperature and evapotranspiration as well seasonal shifts were focuses of this study. Spatial variations were also shown to be important in understanding the changes. Even though studies have shown the total rainfall in the region didn't show a significant change in that region under climate change, seasonal shifts, extreme precipitation, extreme temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increase in evapotranspiration were observed in East Africa. In a region where population is expected to double by mid-century this extreme can put the lives of millions in danger. This study will be followed with another focusing on how these changes in extremes and distribution will affect the water resources in the region specifically the Nile.

  14. Regional predictability and the linearity of climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldl, N.; Roe, G.

    2011-12-01

    At the global scale, feedback analysis is a powerful tool for constraining climate sensitivity through understanding uncertainty in the component model physics. Our focus here is to evaluate the extent to which this framework can be applied to the question of regional climate predictability. We have developed a clean and clear approach to address these challenges. We employ the GFDL AM2 model in aquaplanet mode, coupled to simple ocean mixed-layer and sea-ice schemes, and run under perpetual equinox conditions. This simplified, aquaplanet simulation enables us to investigate the atmospheric response to carbon dioxide without the effects of a seasonal cycle or land-sea distribution, which can obscure the response. Further, we explicitly calculate radiative kernels (necessary to diagnose the feedbacks) for this precise model set-up, thus removing much of the ambiguity in the feedback approximation. We find that linking regional predictability and individual climate feedbacks depends on the balance between local radiative feedbacks and meridional energy transport in response to changes in climate forcing. An important aspect of this energy budget is the linearity of the kernel-calculated feedbacks, which we evaluate. Spatial patterns of these factors can be related to the basic structure of atmospheric circulation, and our results highlight regional differences in the effect of feedbacks on the regional climate response.

  15. Interpreting Evidence of Depredation of Duck Nests in the Prairie Pothole Region

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-01-01

    common raptor throughout the region (Sargeant et al. 1993), occa- sionally preys on pipping duck eggs (Willms and Kreil 1984). The gray wolf (Canis...scattered peck marks on the eggshell and/or >2 openings in the eggshell. A predator’s size influences extent of egg contents consumed during a feeding ...eggs during a feeding bout (e.g., coyotes [Sooter 1946]), but may not do so (e.g., raccoons [Rearden 1951]). Small carnivores (except possi- bly

  16. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  17. Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

    2014-01-01

    The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the

  18. Size matters: nest colonization patterns for twig-nesting ants

    PubMed Central

    Jiménez-Soto, Estelí; Philpott, Stacy M

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of ant diversity and co-occurrence in agroecosystems is fundamental because ants participate in interactions that influence agroecosystem processes. Multiple local and regional factors influence ant community assembly. We examined local factors that influence the structure of a twig-nesting ant community in a coffee system in Mexico using an experimental approach. We investigated whether twig characteristics (nest entrance size and diversity of nest entrance sizes) and nest strata (canopy shade tree or coffee shrub) affected occupation, species richness, and community composition of twig-nesting ants and whether frequency of occupation of ant species varied with particular nest entrance sizes or strata. We conducted our study in a shaded coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico, between March and June 2012. We studied ant nest colonization by placing artificial nests (bamboo twigs) on coffee shrubs and shade trees either in diverse or uniform treatments. We also examined whether differences in vegetation (no. of trees, canopy cover and coffee density) influenced nest colonization. We found 33 ant species occupying 73% of nests placed. Nest colonization did not differ with nest strata or size. Mean species richness of colonizing ants was significantly higher in the diverse nest size entrance treatment, but did not differ with nest strata. Community composition differed between strata and also between the diverse and uniform size treatments on coffee shrubs, but not on shade trees. Some individual ant species were more frequently found in certain nest strata and in nests with certain entrance sizes. Our results indicate that twig-nesting ants are nest-site limited, quickly occupy artificial nests of many sizes, and that trees or shrubs with twigs of a diversity of entrance sizes likely support higher ant species richness. Further, individual ant species more frequently occupy nests with different sized entrances promoting ant richness on individual

  19. The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Grum, M; Jørgensen, A T; Johansen, R M; Linde, J J

    2006-01-01

    That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 x 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at timescales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

  20. A Prototype Nonhydrostatic Regional-to-Global Nested-Grid Atmosphere Model for Medium-range Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, L.; Lin, S. J.; Zhou, L.; Chen, J. H.; Benson, R.; Rees, S.

    2016-12-01

    Limited-area convection-permitting models have proven useful for short-range NWP, but are unable to interact with the larger scales needed for longer lead-time skill. A new global forecast model, fvGFS, has been designed combining a modern nonhydrostatic dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational GFS physics and initial conditions, and has been shown to provide excellent global skill while improving representation of small-scale phenomena. The nested-grid capability of FV3 allows us to build a regional-to-global variable-resolution model to efficiently refine to 3-km grid spacing over the Continental US. The use of two-way grid nesting allows us to reach these resolutions very efficiently, with the operational requirement easily attainable on current supercomputing systems.Even without a boundary-layer or advanced microphysical scheme appropriate for convection-perrmitting resolutions, the effectiveness of fvGFS can be demonstrated for a variety of weather events. We demonstrate successful proof-of-concept simulations of a variety of phenomena. We show the capability to develop intense hurricanes with realistic fine-scale eyewalls and rainbands. The new model also produces skillful predictions of severe weather outbreaks and of organized mesoscale convective systems. Fine-scale orographic and boundary-layer phenomena are also simulated with excellent fidelity by fvGFS. Further expected improvements are discussed, including the introduction of more sophisticated microphysics and of scale-aware convection schemes.

  1. Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster

  2. Changes in Intense Rainfall Events over the Central United States in AOGCM-Driven Regional Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniel, A. R.; Arritt, R. W.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We have evaluated trends in extreme precipitation frequency for the central United States (Groisman et al. 2012) using atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) driven regional climate simulations. Nested regional climate model simulations were conducted using RegCM4.4 over the CORDEX-North America domain with 50 km grid spacing. Initial and lateral boundary conditions are taken from the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M AOGCMs (for RCP8.5 emissions scenario) to simulate present and future climate (1951-2098). For each run, RegCM4 uses three different convection schemes: Emanuel scheme, Grell scheme, and Mixed scheme which uses the Emanuel scheme over water and Grell over land.Current findings show the regional climate simulations are of the same magnitude of average frequency for heavy ( 25.4-76.2 mm/day), and extreme (154.9+ mm/day) precipitation events while very heavy events (76.2+ mm/day) were less frequent by an order of magnitude. For current and recent past climate (1951-2005), frequency of precipitation events is similar in both HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M AOGCM-driven regional climate simulations with most variation due to the convection scheme being used. Initial results seem to exhibit similar trends in the increase of frequency for each precipitation event as is seen in observations. In accordance with Groisman et al. (2012), preliminary findings also show months during the cold season had more frequent heavy events in comparison to very heavy and extreme events while months during the warm season had more frequent very heavy and extreme events in comparison to heavy events. Further analysis will better determine the correlation and accuracy of these regional climate simulations.

  3. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  4. Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal

    1998-01-01

    The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

  5. Influence of the African Great Lakes on the regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Demuzere, Matthias; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    Although the African Great Lakes are important regulators for the East-African climate, their influence on atmospheric dynamics and the regional hydrological cycle remains poorly understood. We aim to assess this impact by conducting a regional climate model simulation which resolves individual lakes and explicitly computes lake temperatures. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM, coupled to a state-of-the-art lake parameterization scheme and land surface model, is used to dynamically downscale the COSMO-CLM CORDEX-Africa evaluation simulation to 7 km grid spacing for the period 1999-2008. Evaluation of the model reveals good performance compared to both in-situ and satellite observations, especially for spatio-temporal variability of lake surface temperatures and precipitation. Model integrations indicate that the four major African Great Lakes almost double precipitation amounts over their surface relative to a simulation without lakes, but hardly exert any influence on precipitation beyond their shores. The largest lakes also cool their near-surface air, this time with pronounced downwind influence. The lake-induced cooling happens during daytime, when the lakes absorb incoming solar radiation and inhibit upward turbulent heat transport. At night, when this heat is released, the lakes warm the near-surface air. Furthermore, Lake Victoria has profound influence on atmospheric dynamics and stability as it induces cellular motion with over-lake convective inhibition during daytime, and the reversed pattern at night. Overall, this study shows the added value of resolving individual lakes and realistically representing lake surface temperatures for climate studies in this region. Thiery, W., Davin, E., Panitz, H.-J., Demuzere, M., Lhermitte, S., van Lipzig, N.P.M., The impact of the African Great Lakes on the regional climate, J. Climate (in review).

  6. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  7. Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradford, Mark A.; Warren, Robert J., II; Baldrian, Petr; Crowther, Thomas W.; Maynard, Daniel S.; Oldfield, Emily E.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; King, Joshua R.

    2014-07-01

    Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on mean responses can be irrelevant and misleading. We test whether climate controls on the decomposition rate of dead wood--a carbon stock estimated to represent 73 +/- 6 Pg carbon globally--are sensitive to the spatial scale from which they are inferred. We show that the common assumption that climate is a predominant control on decomposition is supported only when local-scale variation is aggregated into mean values. Disaggregated data instead reveal that local-scale factors explain 73% of the variation in wood decomposition, and climate only 28%. Further, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition estimated from local versus mean analyses is 1.3-times greater. Fundamental issues with mean correlations were highlighted decades ago, yet mean climate-decomposition relationships are used to generate simulations that inform management and adaptation under environmental change. Our results suggest that to predict accurately how decomposition will respond to climate change, models must account for local-scale factors that control regional dynamics.

  8. Feeding ecology of arctic-nesting sandpipers during spring migration through the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eldridge, J.L.; Krapu, G.L.; Johnson, D.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluated food habits of 4 species of spring-migrant calidrid sandpipers in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North Dakota. Sandpipers foraged in several wetland classes and fed primarily on aquatic dipterans, mostly larvae, and the midge family Chironomidae was the primary food eaten. Larger sandpiper species foraged in deeper water and took larger larvae than did smaller sandpipers. The diverse wetland habitats that migrant shorebirds use in the PPR suggest a landscape-level approach be applied to wetland conservation efforts. We recommend that managers use livestock grazing and other tools, where applicable, to keep shallow, freshwater wetlands from becoming choked with emergent vegetation limiting chironomid production and preventing shorebird use.

  9. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  10. Helminth parasites of the lesser great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis from two nesting regions in the Czech Republic.

    PubMed

    Moravec, Frantisek; Scholz, Tomas

    2016-06-13

    Parasitological examinations of 102 specimens of the lesser great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis (Blumenbach) from two nesting regions in the Czech Republic (South Bohemia and South Moravia) were carried out at the Institute of Parasitology, Czech Academy of Sciences (previously the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences) in the years 1987-1992. In them, a total of 19 species of helminth parasites was found, including Trematoda (11 species), Cestoda (2), Nematoda (4) and Acanthocephala (2), which can be divided into three main groups regarding their host specificity: parasites specific for cormorants (Phalacrocorax spp.) (37%), those parasitic mainly in cormorants (16%) and non-specific parasites (47%). Of the 19 species recorded, 100% were found in South Moravia, but only 47% of these 19 species in South Bohemia. The higher number of helminth species in cormorants from South Moravia and a higher proportion of non-specific species may be associated with the presence of the large Nové Mlýny water reservoir, in addition to better ecological and environmental conditions in this warmer region. Scanning electron microscopical examination of three common nematode species parasitising cormorants, Contracaecum rudolphii Hartwich, 1964, Desmidocercella incognita Solonitsin, 1932 and Syncuaria squamata (von Linstow, 1883), revealed some taxonomically important, previously unreported morphological features, such as the cephalic structures, numbers and distribution of male caudal papillae or the shapes of spicules.

  11. CCID - Making Caribbean Climate Data Accessible to the Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosbourne, R. F.; Taylor, M. A.

    2006-05-01

    Arising out of an AIACC sponsored project investigating the link between climate and the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean, was a realization that a number of deficiencies existed when it came to access to and use of Caribbean climate data. Caribbean climate data are notoriously difficult to acquire, exist neither in a centralized location nor bundled in available data packages, and often require coding into sophisticated data analysis software for the generation of even simple plots. This has proven to be a deterrent to the pursuit of climate and climate related research in and about the region, and the development of interest in climate science at the primary and secondary school levels. The development of CCID - The Caribbean Climate Interactive Database - is an attempt to overcome these deficiencies. It does so by making available a subset of Caribbean station data in a format which facilitates easy use by technical and non-technical users. CCID Version 1 is a one-stop Caribbean climate database packaged within an easy to use interface which facilitates: (i) the storage of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall station data for at least one station for 24 Caribbean territories (ii) quick and easy retrieval of subsets of the data as specified by the users through a web interface (iii) simple statistical manipulations, and (iv) easy update of the database as new data becomes available. This study details the five modules which comprise CCID's design and gives an overview of each, as well as the supporting protocols. Examples of CCID's use are also offered, as are plans for its pilot testing within the region and its future development.

  12. Improvement of surface albedo parameterization within a regional climate model (RegCM3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Y.; Lü, S.

    2009-03-01

    A parameterization for calculating surface albedo of Solar Zenith Angel (SZA) dependence with coefficient for each vegetation type determined on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) reformed by the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) is incorporated within the latest Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), and evaluated with a high resolution one-way nesting simulation in China using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data and the observations from the Field Experiment on Interaction between Land and Atmosphere in Arid Region of Northwest China (NWC-ALIEX). The performance of the SZA method modeling surface characteristic is investigated.Results indicate, RegCM with SZA method (RCM_SZA) considerably improve the cold bias of original RegCM (RCM_ORI) in air surface temperature in East Asia with 1.2 degree increased in summer due to the lower albedo produced by SZA method which makes more solar radiation absorbed by the surface and used for heating the atmosphere near to the surface. The simulated diurnal cycle of ground temperature conforms fairly well to the observation in the nesting simulation in Northwest China, especially during the noon time when the SZA has the lowest value. However, the modification can not obviously affect the East Asia summer monsoon precipitation simulation although RCM_SZA produce more evapo-transpiration in surface with more than 2 Wm-2 increases in simulated latent heat fluxes both in East Asia and in Northwest China compared to RCM_ORI.

  13. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  14. Multi - Region Analysis of a New Climate Extremes Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dittus, A. J.; Karoly, D. J.; Lewis, S. C.; Alexander, L. V.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, a new Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is introduced, extending the earlier combined CEI proposed by Karl et al. (1996). It is based on the use of standard extreme indices derived from daily meteorological station data, facilitating the computation of this index and making use of two global gridded extreme indices datasets. The index combines the fraction of area experiencing extreme conditions in daily temperature and daily and annual precipitation, therefore representing a combined measure of extremes. The analysis of this index at the global scale is limited by data availability. In this study, the four continental-scale regions analysed are Europe, North America, Asia and Australia over the period from 1951 to 2010. Additionally, the index is also computed for the entire Northern Hemisphere, corresponding to the first CEI results at the hemispheric scale. Results show statistically significant increases in the percentage area experiencing much above average warm days and nights and much below average cool days and nights for all regions, with the exception of North America for maximum temperature extremes. Increases in the area affected by precipitation extremes are also found for the Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly Europe. This study shows the potential of this new index for climate monitoring and other applications by documenting large-scale changes in the areas experiencing climate extremes. Preliminary detection and attribution results will also be presented using extreme indices computed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model simulations (Sillmann et al., 2013). Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, D. R. Easterling, and R. G. Quayle, 1996: Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 279-292. Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh (2013), Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys

  15. Production and use of regional climate model projections - A Swedish perspective on building climate services.

    PubMed

    Kjellström, Erik; Bärring, Lars; Nikulin, Grigory; Nilsson, Carin; Persson, Gunn; Strandberg, Gustav

    2016-09-01

    We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50 km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.

  16. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  18. North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Pickler, Carolyne; Beltrami, Hugo; Mareschal, Jean-Claude

    2016-12-01

    Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, 510 North American borehole temperature-depth profiles were analyzed to infer recent climate changes. To facilitate comparisons and to study the same time period, the profiles were truncated at 300 m. Ground surface temperature histories for the last 500 years were obtained for a model describing temperature changes at the surface for several climate-differentiated regions in North America. The evaluation of the model is done by inversion of temperature perturbations using singular value decomposition and its solutions are assessed using a Monte Carlo approach. The results within 95 % confidence interval suggest a warming between 1.0 and 2.5 K during the last two centuries. A regional analysis, composed of mean temperature changes over the last 500 years and geographical maps of ground surface temperatures, show that all regions experienced warming, but this warming is not spatially uniform and is more marked in northern regions.

  19. Importance of individual species of predators on nesting success of ducks in the Canadian prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Douglas H.; Sargeant, Alan B.; Greenwood, Raymond J.

    1989-01-01

    We followed 3094 upland nests of several species of ducks. Clutches in most nests were lost to predation. We related daily nest predation rates to indices of activity of eight egg-eating predators, precipitation during the nesting season, and measures of wetland conditions. Activity indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) activity were positively correlated, as were activity indices of coyote (Canis latrans), Franklin's ground squirrel (Spermophilus franklinii), and black-billed magpie (Pica pica). Indices of fox and coyote activity were strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.51), as were those of badger (Taxidea taxus) and skunk (r = -0.46). Nest predation rates in the early part of the breeding season were positively related to indices of fox, American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos), and badger activity. Predation rates in the latter part of the season were positively related to indices of fox and skunk activity. Predation rates on early-season nests were lower in areas and years in which larger fractions of seasonal wetlands contained water. For late-season nests, a similar relationship held involving semipermanent wetlands. We suspect that the wetland measures, which reflect precipitation during some previous period, also indicate vegetation growth and the abundance of buffer prey, factors that may influence nest predation rates.

  20. Partnerships in the Polar Regions: Climate to Classrooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2013-12-01

    PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is a program in which K-12 teachers spend 2-6 weeks participating in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions which focus heavily on climate change and climate science. The goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. Through teachers, climate understanding can be shaped for the future by having scientifically literate students entering the workforce. Alone, PolarTREC reaches a myriad of classrooms throughout the country. With new partnerships of the National Park Service and Alaska Geographic, we developed additional field experiences in climate change education for teachers. Campaigns for climate literacy do impact students but are only effective with well-trained, experienced teachers. Our programmatic goal is to expand the opportunities for PolarTREC teachers to share their involvement in science with additional formal and informal educators. 'Teaching the teachers' will reach additional audiences in media, policy, and classrooms. Modeling this program, we designed and conducted teacher trainings on climate science in Denali National Park. Utilizing expert university faculty and park managers in climate science and PolarTREC alumni teachers, the program was touted as 'the best professional opportunity to date". This program gave new teachers the tools to adequately communicate climate science for a generation of scientifically literate students. This presentation will outline the practices used in creating and implementing a climate literacy program for teachers through partnerships that will effectively influence student learning.

  1. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  2. Validation of Daily Rainfall Simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over Indian Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D, N.; C T, D.; Sushama, L.

    2011-12-01

    The impact of climate change on water resources is significant due to the close interactions between various climate variables and the hydrologic cycle. While global climate models (GCMs) are widely used tools for understanding of climate, regional climate models (RCMs) with their complete closed budget including both the atmospheric and land surface branches provide more detailed simulations of regional and local conditions. In the present study, a fifth generation of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is employed to obtain high-resolution (0.44°×0.44°) daily rainfall simulations over Indian region. Three simulations are obtained from CRCM5 with different lateral boundary conditions (LBC), the driving/ pilot data and soil layers. Results from these three simulations are compared with the 0.5°×0.5° resolution daily rainfall data over Indian region prepared by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Different skill scores are employed for the comparison. RCM simulations match reasonably well with the observed data for major part of the country, except for the high rainfall regions such as south-western and north-eastern parts of India.

  3. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  4. Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development in Research Triangle Park, NC, has been developing regional climate and air quality fields for North America for current and future periods. Research emphasis has been placed on evaluating near-s...

  5. Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development in Research Triangle Park, NC, has been developing regional climate and air quality fields for North America for current and future periods. Research emphasis has been placed on evaluating near-s...

  6. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  7. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  8. Evaluation of global and regional climate simulations over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik; Gbobaniyi, Emiola

    2013-04-01

    Two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, are evaluated and inter-compared over the Africa-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes eight coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1° to 3°, namely CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensemble all 8 AOGCMs are downscaled over the Africa-CORDEX domain at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44° resolution. The main focus is on ability of both global and regional ensembles to simulate precipitation in different climate zones of Africa. Precipitation climatology is characterized by seasonal means, inter-annual variability and by various characteristics of the rainy season: onset, cessation, mean intensity and intra-seasonal variability. To see potential benefits of higher resolution in the regional downscaling all precipitation statistics are inter-compared between the individual AOGCM-RCA4(AOGCM) pairs and between the two multi-model ensemble averages. A special attention in the study is on how the AOGCMs simulate teleconnection patterns of large-scale internal variability and how these teleconnection pattern are reproduced in the downscaled regional simulations.

  9. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  10. Spatial spin-up of fine scales in a regional climate model simulation driven by low-resolution boundary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Laprise, René; Thériault, Julie M.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe

    2017-07-01

    In regional climate modelling, it is well known that domains should be neither too large to avoid a large departure from the driving data, nor too small to provide a sufficient distance from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the small-scale (SS) features permitted by the finer resolution. Although most practitioners of dynamical downscaling are well aware that the jump of resolution between the lateral boundary condition (LBC) driving data and the nested regional climate model affects the simulated climate, this issue has not been fully investigated. In principle, as the jump of resolution becomes larger, the region of interest in the limited-area domain should be located further away from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the SS features. A careless choice of domain might result in a suboptimal use of the full finer resolution potential to develop fine-scale features. To address this issue, regional climate model (RCM) simulations using various resolution driving data are compared following the perfect-prognostic Big-Brother protocol. Several experiments were carried out to evaluate the width of the spin-up region (i.e. the distance between the lateral inflow boundary and the domain of interest required for the full development of SS transient eddies) as a function of the RCM and LBC resolutions, as well as the resolution jump. The spin-up distance turns out to be a function of the LBC resolution only, independent of the RCM resolution. When varying the RCM resolution for a given resolution jump, it is found that the spin-up distance corresponds to a fixed number of RCM grid points that is a function of resolution jump only. These findings can serve a useful purpose to guide the choice of domain and RCM configuration for an optimal development of the small scales allowed by the increased resolution of the nested model.

  11. Artificial nest experiments in a fragmented neotropical cloud forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trujillo, G.; Ahumada, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    We conducted artificial nest experiments in a Neotropical montane forest in the eastern Andes, Colombia, in order to test the effect of placing the nests in forest fragments or continuous forests, at two nest heights and for two different climatic seasons. Predation was not consistently different between nests placed in fragments and controls. However, we found that nests on the ground had a higher daily probability of being predated than nests in the understory. Also, daily nest mortality rate (DNM) was higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Most of the predated nests were attributed to mammals (56%), and predation occurred mostly on the ground (78%). Our estimates of DNM are quite low (= 0.023) and similar to another Neotropical montane forest and other Neotropical sites. Comparisons of DNM between Neotropical and temperate sites suggests that predation rates are similar. Our results suggest that fragmentation may not have a large negative impact in nest predation for bird populations breeding in fragments compared to other sites in tropical and temperate regions. ?? The Neotropical Ornithological Society.

  12. The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2003-12-01

    This paper examines sensitivity of regional climate simulations to spatial resolution using a 20-year simulation of the western U.S. at 40 km resolution and two 5-year simulations at 13 km resolution for the Pacific Northwest and California. The regional climate simulation at 40 km resolution shows a lack of precipitation along coastal hills, good agreements with observations on the windward slopes of the Cascades and Sierra, but over-prediction on the leeside and the basins beyond. Snowpack is grossly under-predicted throughout the western U.S. when compared against observations at snotel sites, which are typically located at the higher altitudes. Comparisons of the 40 km and 13 km resolution simulations suggest that during winter, higher spatial resolution mainly improves the simulation of precipitation in the coastal hills and basins. Along the Cascades and the Sierra Range, however, precipitation is strongly amplified at the higher spatial resolution and compares less favorably with observations. Higher resolution generally improves the spatial distribution of precipitation to yield higher spatial correlation when comparing the simulations to observation. During summer, higher resolution improves not only spatial distribution but also regional mean precipitation.

  13. Linking the Mediterranean regional and the global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca

    2017-04-01

    This contribution analyzes 22 CMIP5 global climate projections to show how is the regional climate change in the Mediterranean related to the global climate change. The aim is to use these recent results to revisit evidences suggesting that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot. Results show that future increase of temperature in the Mediterranean region has a strong seasonal connotation, with summer warming at a pace 40% larger than the global mean. This future trend is consistent with the global reduction of the meridional temperature gradient that is produced by climate change. However spatial distribution of changes shows a strong a sub-regional modulation depending of the land-sea contrast, the role of soil moisture feedback and changes of large scale atmospheric circulation leading to increased subsidence conditions. Projections show that precipitation decrease will affect most of the region, but with a strong difference between southern and northern areas, where CMIP5 projections suggest a 7% and 3% decrease of annual precipitation for each degree of global warming, respectively. For both Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, the dependence is substantially linear in the range up to 40C of global warming. Interannual variability and intermodel differences are a substantial source of uncertainty for precipitation (while there is a robust consensus for temperature changes). Therefore, future precipitation changes are still a controversial issue, in terms of intensity and precise location of the transition belt that separates the decrease of precipitation over the MR from areas in central and northern Europe, where precipitation is expected to increase. On this respect, though the overall drying trend appears consolidated in the scientific literature, its precise evaluation remains to some extent controversial.

  14. Spatial connectivity of urban clusters and regional climate effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, G.; Hu, Y.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urbanization in East Asia in past three decades is considered as a remarkable process that featured with expansion of urban clusters and tightened linkages within and among clusters. Such process could lead to much larger scale climate effects, and could even contribute to sub-regional and regional climate change. In large area of urban clusters with significant expansion of built-up in relatively short period, local urban heat islands could contribute to sub-regional climate forcing. Here we use visible/near infrared and thermal infrared satellite data to estimate multiple scale structure of urban clusters, and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales in East Asia. Our estimates of urban extent were greater than previously reported in most global datasets. Strong spatial connection and internal expansion were found in major urban clusters in past 30 years, and was accelerated in past 10 years. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. We would argue that in many cases in this region, urban clusters are no longer "islands", they are now "seas" in term of climate related urban canopy. Urban greens such as parks and plantation were long recognized for their cooling effects that buffer the urban heat island effect, however, such cooling effects tend to be weakened as their patches became smaller and isolated, and over dominated by urban surfaces. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation for better understanding the impacts of inter-connected urban clusters on air temperature, precipitation, wind speed

  15. Collaborating at a Regional Scale for Climate Literacy and Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlton, C.; Shcherba, O.

    2016-12-01

    Since 2014, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Impact Collaborative (Bay-CLIC) has been the leading regional consortium dedicated to improving climate education and action. Collectively, Bay-CLIC members reach over 3 million individuals through their educational programming, serve counties all throughout the Bay Area, offer multiple methods of climate communication like place-based school programs and visitor centers, and serve audiences representing all age groups. With over 30 organizations ranging from park agencies to science museums and nonprofits promoting energy efficiency, Bay-CLIC is preparing to push out climate change messaging through a suite of projects. Currently, Bay-CLIC's work is centered on building connections between educators and local scientists and region-specific climate data, implementing joint campaigns to promote the social norming of sustainable behavior change, and developing a toolkit and trainings targeted to the needs of Bay Area environmental educators. Meeting the needs of this diverse group offers many opportunities for increasing impact, growing new, strategic partnerships, as well as overcoming a few challenges along the way. Come learn more about what we've accomplished so far and what new, exciting projects are coming down the pike.

  16. Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Climate Ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Tye, M. R.; Keellings, D.; Jaye, A.

    2014-12-01

    A high-resolution Regional Climate Ensemble is used to investigate the limits of predictability of climate simulations, with a focus on high-impact weather. A diverse set of approaches are being applied to examine the impact of the different physics parameterizations on the simulated climate and high-impact weather statistics and to determine the physics combinations that result in realistic scenarios. In this paper we focus on the ensemble members' ability to correctly simulate current climate variability in terms of: 1) extreme temperature and precipitation over different regions, and 2) tropical cyclone statistics. A twenty-four member physics ensemble of climate simulations has been generated using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Skamarock et al. 2008). The ensemble model has been run over an extended North American domain of approximately 25° S to 70° N and from the African coast to the East Pacific, and at sufficient resolution to capture high-impact weather events. Skamarock, W., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. Barker, M. G. Duda, X. Huang, and W. Wang, 2008: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. Boulder, CO.

  17. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  18. Review of the recent regional climate modelling studies of the Adriatic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guettler, Ivan

    2017-04-01

    Adriatic region is characterized by the distinct topographical and coastline structures. This leads to the specific climate regimes, and the formation of e.g. strong bora/Bura flows. The results of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative and most recent DHMZ simulations using regional climate model RegCM4 will be presented and discussed. Planetary boundary layer quantities such as the near-surface air temperature, total precipitation amount and near-surface wind will be explored in terms of both systematic errors of the RCMs and their possible climate change projections for the rest of the 21st century. Finally, recent results concerning analytical modelling of the katabatic and anabatic flows will be presented, and possible further refinements of these models will be suggested.

  19. Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

    2011-01-01

    We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

  20. Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change in Southwest Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panitz, Hans-Juergen; Schoelzel, Christian; Hense, Andreas; Feldmann, Hendrik; Schaedler, Gerd

    2010-05-01

    Since single-integration climate models only provide one possible realisation of climate variability, ensembles are a promising way to estimate the uncertainty in climate modelling. A statistical model is presented that combines information from an ensemble of regional and global climate models to estimate probability distributions of future temperature change in Southwest Germany in the following two decades. The method used here is related to kernel dressing which has been extended to a multivariate approach in order to estimate the temporal autocovariance in the ensemble system. It has been applied to annual and seasonal mean temperatures given by ensembles of the coupled general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM as well as the regional climate simulations using the COSMO-CLM model. The results are interpreted in terms of the bivariate probability density of mean and trend within the period 2011-2030 with respect to 1961-1990. Throughout the study region one can observe an average increase in annual mean temperature of approximately +0.6K in and a corresponding trend of +0.15K/20 a. While the increase in 20-years mean temperature is virtually certain, the 20-years trend still shows a 20% chance for negative values. This indicates that the natural variability of the climate system, as far as it is reflected by the ensemble system, can produce negative trends even in the presence of longer-term warming. Winter temperatures are clearly more affected and for both quantities we observe a north-to-south pattern where the increase in the very southern part is less intense.

  1. Marsh nesting by mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krapu, G.L.; Talent, L.G.; Dwyer, T.J.

    1979-01-01

    Nest-site selection by mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) hens was studied on a 52-km2, privately owned area in the Missouri Coteau of south-central North Dakota during 1974-77. Sixty-six percent of 53 nests initiated by radio-marked and unmarked hens were in wetlands in dense stands of emergent vegetation and usually within 50 m of the wetland edge. These findings and other sources of information suggest that significant numbers of mallards breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region nest in marsh habitat. Potential factors contributing to mallard use of marsh habitat for nesting purposes are discussed. Management considerations associated with marsh nesting by mallards are described and research needs are identified.

  2. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  3. Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Sonya A.

    2010-01-01

    Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

  4. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, K. W.; Bernhardt, K.; Lohmann, G.; Lemmen, C.

    2009-04-01

    We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition). Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid- Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period) were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan- American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  5. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, K. W.; Bernhardt, K.; Lohmann, G.; Lemmen, C.

    2009-01-01

    We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition). Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid-Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period) were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan-American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  6. Continental-Scale Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

    2015-12-01

    Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPCMs) have proven to be useful for down scaling large-scale climate information to regional and local scales. They add value to the representation of impact relevant parameters such as near surface temperature, precipitation, and the representation of extremes by improving local scale processes such as soil atmosphere interactions, snowpack dynamics, or the representation of deep convection. Due to their high computational costs most CPCM simulations have been restricted to small domains on the order of a few 100 km. On such small domains CPCMs might not reach their full potential because they are restricted by the lateral boundary forcing and may not be able to spin up properly. In this study we investigate the ability of a continental scale CPCM to simulate climate conditions in the Contiguous United States within the period October 2000 to December 2010. We downscale ERA-Interim reanalysis data to a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model that allows an explicit treatment of deep convection. The model performance is analyzed in different synoptic-scale weather regimes, which enables a process-oriented evaluation. The significance of model biases in simulated precipitation and temperature is investigated by including observational uncertainties in the analysis. Significant biases are further investigated and possible error sources are discussed. The goal of this study is to provide a benchmark on the state-of-the-art convection-permitting regional climate modeling and to give guidance for future model development.

  7. MODIS land cover uncertainty in regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xue; Messina, Joseph P.; Moore, Nathan J.; Fan, Peilei; Shortridge, Ashton M.

    2017-02-01

    MODIS land cover datasets are used extensively across the climate modeling community, but inherent uncertainties and associated propagating impacts are rarely discussed. This paper modeled uncertainties embedded within the annual MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) products and propagated these uncertainties through the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, land cover uncertainties were modeled using pixel-based trajectory analyses from a time series of MCD12Q1 for Urumqi, China. Second, alternative land cover maps were produced based on these categorical uncertainties and passed into RAMS. Finally, simulations from RAMS were analyzed temporally and spatially to reveal impacts. Our study found that MCD12Q1 struggles to discriminate between grasslands and croplands or grasslands and barren in this study area. Such categorical uncertainties have significant impacts on regional climate model outputs. All climate variables examined demonstrated impact across the various regions, with latent heat flux affected most with a magnitude of 4.32 W/m2 in domain average. Impacted areas were spatially connected to locations of greater land cover uncertainty. Both biophysical characteristics and soil moisture settings in regard to land cover types contribute to the variations among simulations. These results indicate that formal land cover uncertainty analysis should be included in MCD12Q1-fed climate modeling as a routine procedure.

  8. Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2014-02-01

    Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

  9. Projection of future changes in climate in the Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Stergiou, Ioannis; Tagaris, Efthimios

    2017-04-01

    Mediterranean since it is one of the regions that will be affected most by climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate changes in the future climatic parameters in the Mediterranean Region at a very fine grid resolution. WRF model is used to dynamically downscale NASA GISS GCM ModelE simulations in the Mediterranean at a 9 km by 9 km resolution for five current (2008-2012) and five future (2048-2052) years using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results for temperature and precipitation are assessed annually and seasonally providing information for the estimated changes in a very fine scale across the Mediterranean Region. The estimated changes suggest that precipitation change is much more location dependent compared to temperature. Acknowledgments LIFE CLIMATREE project "A novel approach for accounting & monitoring carbon sequestration of tree crops and their potential as carbon sink areas" (LIFE14 CCM/GR/000635).

  10. Late holocene climate changes in the Sea of Azov region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matishov, G. G.; Novenko, E. Yu.; Krasnorutskaya, K. V.

    2012-05-01

    The results of paleoclimatic reconstructions made with the help of the information-statistical method developed by V.A. Klimanov based on palynological data from the Sea of Azov bottom sediments. For the period of the last 3000 years, four phases of warm and dry climates and three phases of relatively cool and humid climates were identified. The latter phases were characterized by wider expansion of tree vegetation in the region around the Sea of Azov. The range of mean annual temperatures between warmer and cooler intervals was about 4°C.

  11. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  12. Tropical deforestation: Modeling local- to regional-scale climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Durbidge, T.B.; Pitman, A.J. ); Dickinson, R.E. ); Kennedy, P.J. ); McGuffie, K. )

    1993-04-20

    The authors report results from a model study using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (Version 1) general circulation model to assess the impact of regional scale deforestation on climate change. In the model a large parcel in the Amazon basin is changed from tropical rain forest to scrub grassland. Impacts can include adding CO[sub 2] to the atmosphere by biomass burning, increasing surface albedo, changing precipitation and evaporation rates, impacting soil moisture, and general weather patterns. They compare their model results with earlier work which has looked at this same problem.

  13. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  14. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.

    PubMed

    Shindell, D T; Schmidt, G A; Mann, M E; Rind, D; Waple, A

    2001-12-07

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  15. Extreme events evaluation over African cities with regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois

    2013-04-01

    The warming of the climate system in recent decades is evident from observations and is mainly related to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2012). Given the expected climate change conditions on the African continent, as underlined in different publications, and their associated socio-economic impacts, an evaluation of the specific effects on some strategic African cities on the medium and long-term is of crucial importance with regard to the development of adaptation strategies. Assessments usually focus on averages climate properties rather than on variability or extremes, but often these last ones have more impacts on the society than averages values. Global Coupled Models (GCM) are generally used to simulate future climate scenarios as they guarantee physical consistency between variables; however, due to the coarse spatial resolution, their output cannot be used for impact studies on local scales, which makes necessary the generation of higher resolution climate change data. Regional Climate Models (RCM) describe better the phenomena forced by orography or by coastal lines, or that are related to convection. Therefore they can provide more detailed information on climate extremes that are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws. The normal bias of the RCM to represent the local climatology is reduced using adequate statistical techniques based on the comparison of the simulated results with long observational time series. In the framework of the EU-FP7 CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa) project, regional projections of climate change at high resolution (about 8 km), have been performed for selected areas surrounding five African cities. At CMCC, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been employed: it is a non-hydrostatic model. For each domain, two simulations have been performed, considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission

  16. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  17. Triangular Nests!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, R. I.

    2002-01-01

    Shows how integer-sided triangles can be nested, each nest having a single enclosing isosceles triangle. Brings to light what can be seen as a relatively simple generalization of Pythagoras' theorem, a result that should be readily accessible to many secondary school pupils. (Author/KHR)

  18. Triangular Nests!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, R. I.

    2002-01-01

    Shows how integer-sided triangles can be nested, each nest having a single enclosing isosceles triangle. Brings to light what can be seen as a relatively simple generalization of Pythagoras' theorem, a result that should be readily accessible to many secondary school pupils. (Author/KHR)

  19. Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

    Treesearch

    X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

    2010-01-01

    The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

  20. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes

  1. Regional Climate Simulations Over the Mackenzie River Basin in MAGS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, M.; Bartlett, P.; Chan, E.; Verseghy, D.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) coupled with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) was used to perform a multiyear simulation over Western North America in order to estimate the Mackenzie River basin average surface climate and water balance over a 5 year period under current climate conditions. A 6.5 year simulation was completed, yielding 5 water years after assuming a spinup period of 1.5 years. The simulation period is April 1, 1997 - September 30 2003 which overlaps with both the CAGES (Canadian GEWEX Enhanced Study) and CEOP (Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period) periods, and provides a 5 year climatology for WEBS (Water and Energy Balance Study). Surface climate for this simulation is evaluated against a monthly gridded climatology produced by the Meteorological Service of Canada known as CANGRID. An overall precipitation bias of about 5% was found. Mean monthly observed screen level temperatures compared favorably with corresponding first layer (0-10 cm) soil and snow (when present) temperatures indicating an overall bias of less than 0.4 K . Snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover fraction have also been compared with satellite estimates over our evaluation region, indicating excellent agreement between simulated and observed wintertime accumulation. The mean annual Mackenzie Basin water balance (1998/99 - 2002/03) is summarized. Mean annual P-E is 247 mm, the maximum occurring in the mountainous western portion of the basin. Overland (208 mm) and total (240 mm) runoff are, not surprisingly, also largest in this region. Mean annual soil moisture change can be large locally (up to 43 mm) but the basin average is relatively modest at 6 mm. This work represents an important step towards the completion of a fully coupled atmosphere/land-surface/hydrologic model, establishing that the coupled atmosphere/land-surface component can generate a realistic climate over our region of interest under current conditions.

  2. Model experiments on climate change in the Tokyo metropolitan area using regional climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.

    2011-12-01

    There is a possibility that the future atmospheric warming leads to more frequent heavy rainfall in the metropolitan area, thereby increasing the risk of floods. As part of REsearch Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, we started numerical model experiments for investigating the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessments in the metropolitan area by the use of regional climate scenarios. The model experiments adopt dynamical downscaling techniques. Future climate projections obtained from regional climate model simulations at 20 km horizontal grid spacing are downscaled into finer grids (less than 5 km resolutions) of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0 modified by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED-RAMS). Prior to performing the dynamical downscaling experiments, the NIED-RAMS model biases are evaluated by comparing long-term surface meteorological observations with results of the model simulations that are carried out by using the Japanese Re-Analysis (JRA) data and Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model outputs as the initial and boundary conditions.

  3. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  4. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  5. A coupled regional climate model for the Lake Victoria basin of East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yi; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Xie, Lian; Ogallo, Laban J.

    2004-01-01

    A nested coupled model has been developed to investigate the two-way interactions between the regional climate of eastern Africa and Lake Victoria. The atmospheric component of the model is the North Carolina State University (NCSU) version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model (NCSU-RegCM2). The lake component of the model is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM).Three simulations, each 4 months long, have been performed for the short rains of eastern Africa of September through to December. The control experiment is based on the standard NCSU-RegCM2 model coupled to a one-dimensional model of Lake Victoria. The second experiment was based on the stand-alone three-dimensional primitive equation POM-Lake Victoria model forced by output from the atmospheric component of the control run. The third experiment is based on the integration of the coupled system of the NCSU-RegCM2 model where the one-dimensional lake model in the control run has been replaced by the three-dimensional POM hydrodynamical model for Lake Victoria.The results confirm that adopting the traditional modelling approach, in which the lake hydrodynamics are neglected and the formulation is based entirely on thermodynamics alone, is not entirely satisfactory for the Lake Victoria basin. Such a strategy precludes the transport of heat realistically within the lake, from the heat surplus regions to the cooler regions, and thereby results in a degraded simulation of the climate downstream over the rest of the lake and the surrounding land regions. The numerical simulations show that the southwestern region of the lake is an important source of warm water because it is relatively shallower and the water column is heated up much more quickly during the day than the rest of the lake. The result is that the surface temperature anomaly field from the all-lake area average consists of a gradient pattern with warmer water over the shallow region of the lake over the

  6. Assessment of the nested grid model estimates for driving regional visibility models in the southwestern United States.

    PubMed

    Pai, P; Farber, R J; Karamchandani, P; Tombach, I

    2000-05-01

    The Nested Grid Model (NGM) is a primitive-equation meteorological model that is routinely exercised over North America for forecasting purposes by the National Meteorological Center. While prognostic meteorological models are being increasingly used to drive air quality models, their use in conducting annual simulations requires significant resources. NGM estimates of wind fields and other meteorological variables provide an attractive alternative since they are typically archived and readily available for an entire year. Preliminary evaluation of NGM winds during the summer of 1992 for application to the region surrounding the Grand Canyon National Park showed serious shortcomings. The NGM winds along the borders between California, Arizona and Mexico tend to be northwesterly with a speed of about 6 m/sec, while the observed flow is predominantly southerly at about 2-5 m/sec. The mesoscale effect of a thermal low pressure area over the highly heated Southern California and western Arizona deserts does not appear to be represented by the NGM because of its coarse resolution and the use of sparse observations in that region. Tracer simulations and statistical evaluation against special high resolution observations of winds in the southwest United States clearly demonstrate the northwest bias in NGM winds and its adverse effect on predictions of an air quality model. The "enhanced" NGM winds, in which selected wind observations are incorporated in the NGM winds using a diagnostic meteorological model provide additional confirmation on the primary cause of the northwest bias. This study has demonstrated that in situations where limited resources prevent the use of prognostic meteorological models, previously archived coarse resolution wind fields in which additional observations are incorporated to correct known biases provide an attractive option.

  7. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Treesearch

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  8. Use of Climatic Information In Regional Water Resources Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claps, P.

    Relations between climatic parameters and hydrological variables at the basin scale are investigated, with the aim of evaluating in a parsimonious way physical parameters useful both for a climatic classification of an area and for supporting statistical models of water resources assessment. With reference to the first point, literature methods for distributed evaluation of parameters such as temperature, global and net solar radiation, precipitation, have been considered at the annual scale with the aim of considering the viewpoint of the robust evaluation of parameters based on few basic physical variables of simple determination. Elevation, latitude and average annual number of sunny days have demonstrated to be the essential parameters with respect to the evaluation of climatic indices related to the soil water deficit and to the radiative balance. The latter term was evaluated at the monthly scale and validated (in the `global' term) with measured data. in questo caso riferite al bilancio idrico a scala annuale. Budyko, Thornthwaite and Emberger climatic indices were evaluated on the 10,000 km2 territory of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) based on a 1.1. km grid. They were compared in terms of spatial variability and sensitivity to the variation of the basic variables in humid and semi-arid areas. The use of the climatic index data with respect to statistical parameters of the runoff series in some gauging stations of the region demonstrated the possibility to support regionalisation of the annual runoff using climatic information, with clear distinction of the variability of the coefficient of variation in terms of the humidity-aridity of the basin.

  9. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  10. Regional climate response to solar-radiation management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, Katharine L.; Morgan, M. Granger; Allen, Myles R.

    2010-08-01

    Concerns about the slow pace of climate mitigation have led to renewed dialogue about solar-radiation management, which could be achieved by adding reflecting aerosols to the stratosphere. Modelling studies suggest that solar-radiation management could produce stabilized global temperatures and reduced global precipitation. Here we present an analysis of regional differences in a climate modified by solar-radiation management, using a large-ensemble modelling experiment that examines the impacts of 54 scenarios for global temperature stabilization. Our results confirm that solar-radiation management would generally lead to less extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies, compared with unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions. However, they also illustrate that it is physically not feasible to stabilize global precipitation and temperature simultaneously as long as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. Over time, simulated temperature and precipitation in large regions such as China and India vary significantly with different trajectories for solar-radiation management, and they diverge from historical baselines in different directions. Hence, it may not be possible to stabilize the climate in all regions simultaneously using solar-radiation management. Regional diversity in the response to different levels of solar-radiation management could make consensus about the optimal level of geoengineering difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.

  11. The hydrological cycle of the Niger River basin simulated by the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascaro, G.; White, D. D.; Westerhoff, P.; Bliss, N.

    2015-12-01

    The Niger River Basin (NRB) is a large transnational watershed of ~1.5 million km2, whose water resources sustain more than 100 million people of nine countries in West Africa. Evaluating the reliability of climate simulations in the region is essential to support water sustainability and food security under possible future climatic changes and population growth. Here, we assess the ability of a set of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-Africa to reproduce the hydrologic cycle of the NRB. For this aim, we adopt a verification framework based on the mass conservation principle that assumes that the mean annual difference between precipitation and evaporation equals the long-term mean discharge. We focus on four nested sub-basins encompassing different climatic zones with available discharge observations. We found that most RCMs overestimate the mean annual runoff (from +10% to +400%), because of a positive bias in the simulation of precipitation and a weak hydrologic cycle in the evaporation channel. Some exceptions are found in the more humid sub-basin upstream where a few climate simulations are not able to capture the intensity of the West African monsoon. Analyses of the water balance components also revealed that the signature of the RCMs is more significant than that of the driving General Circulation Model, likely due to the specific schemes adopted in the RCMs to parameterize the land-surface processes. This work is useful to increase the utility of regional climate simulations in impact studies supporting the development of water management polices and
planning of hydraulic infrastructures in the basin.

  12. Temporal Responses of NDVI to Climate Factors in Different Climatic Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zare, H.

    2015-12-01

    The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to investigate the impact of climate factors on vegetation changes. However, a few studies have concentrated on comparing the relationship of climate factors and vegetation in different climatic regions. To enhance the understanding of these relationship, a temporal analysis was carried out on time series of 16-day NDVI from MODIS (2000-2014) during the growing season in ten protected areas of different regions of Iran. The correlation analyses between climate factors and NDVI was classified into two sub-periods. First from February to April and second from May to September. In the first sub-period, NDVI was more correlated to temperature than precipitation, all the areas had positive correlation with temperature. Slope of regression in arid region was less than others. In contrast, precipitation had different impact on NDVI among the locations from February to April. The negative correlation was found between precipitation and woody lands (humid regions), whereas precipitation in Bafgh and Turan in which annual plants are dominant (arid regions), had positive impact on NDVI. In the second sub-period, temperature showed negative significant influence on NDVI; however, the slope of regression was not identical across the locations. Woody lands had more strong correlation with temperature. NDVI sensitivity to temperature had a time lag of 30 days in most of areas, whereas arid regions did not show time lag. Positive correlation was found between precipitation and NDVI during warm period in all the locations. The areas covered by perennial plant had 1-2 months lag to respond to precipitation. Overall, no significant trend in NDVI changes was shown during the study period. We concluded that NDVI sensitivity to climate factors relies on vegetation type and time of year.

  13. Linking the Weather Generator with Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, Martin; Farda, Ales; Skalak, Petr; Huth, Radan

    2013-04-01

    One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking the stochastic weather generator with the climate model output. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily surface weather generator (WG) M&Rfi is linked to the RCM output, follows two aims: (1) Validation of the new simulations of the present climate (1961-1990) made by the ALADIN-Climate Regional Climate Model at 25 km resolution. The WG parameters are derived from the RCM-simulated surface weather series and compared to those derived from weather series observed in 125 Czech meteorological stations. The set of WG parameters will include statistics of the surface temperature and precipitation series (including probability of wet day occurrence). (2) Presenting a methodology for linking the WG with RCM output. This methodology, which is based on merging information from observations and RCM, may be interpreted as a downscaling procedure, whose product is a gridded WG capable of producing realistic synthetic multivariate weather series for weather-ungauged locations. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series in the first step, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with gridded RCM weather series and spatially scarcer observations. The quality of the weather series produced by the resultant gridded WG will be assessed in terms of selected climatic characteristics (focusing on characteristics related to variability and extremes of surface temperature and precipitation). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR) and VALUE (COST ES 1102

  14. Land Cover / Climate Interaction at Global and Regional Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover and climate interact at regional and global scales through biophysical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. Land cover change (LCC) affects regional climate through impacts on surface albedo and surface net radiation, on the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes, on the atmospheric heating, moisture flux convergence and circulation, and the partitioning of rainfall between evaporation and runoff. Meanwhile, the climate variability and change also affect the LCC. Based on historical anthropogenic land cover change data from 1948-2005, numerical experiments that were designed to test its impact using general circulation models indicate that the LCC enhances the global warming in past half century. This is because after land degradation, reduction of evaporation is dominant, leading to surface warming. The reduction of net radiation due to high surface albedo plays a secondary role. Meanwhile, its impact on the regional monsoon is significant. The produced monsoon rainfall anomaly is not only limited within the land degradation area but extend to much large area through its interaction with the atmospheric circulations. The warming climate and climate variability also affect the vegetation distribution. For instance, with a coupled biophysical and dynamic vegetation model forced by the observed meteorological data, the North America leaf area index (LAI) shows an increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Meanwhile, the effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. The land covers in some parts of North America also show substantial changes. Evaluations of these simulations using satellite data are crucial. The critical issues in applying satellite data for LCC studies are also discussed.

  15. Detecting regional carbon-climate feedbacks in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parazoo, N.; Koven, C.; Miller, C. E.; Commane, R.; Wofsy, S.; Frankenberg, C.; Luus, K. A.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic Boreal Zone (ABZ) is one of the most important and sensitive regions on Earth in the context of climate change. Recent evidence points to ongoing changes to ecosystem metabolism and permafrost that have potential to significantly feed back to global climate processes. Our ability to detect and quantify carbon-climate feedbacks in the ABZ requires methods to measure long term changes in the rate of ecosystem carbon exchange across geographical regions and over seasonal timescales, disentangle fluxes from permafrost thaw and biosphere uptake, and resolve functional and structural characteristics of diverse ABZ ecosystems. In this study, we analyze satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan biosphere carbon cycle signals in current and future climates. A key finding is that current airborne and satellite measurements of CO2 in Alaska can accurately quantify interannual and long term changes in peak summer uptake, but are insufficient to capture regional changes in cold season emissions. As the potential for Arctic carbon budgets to become impacted by permafrost thaw and cold season emissions increases, strategies focused on year-round vertical profiles and improved spatial sampling will be needed to track carbon balance changes. We also present evidence that measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence, a variable tightly linked to terrestrial vegetation photosynthesis, provide critical information on the timing of spring photosynthetic onset and duration of growing season carbon uptake in tundra and boreal ecosystems. Comparisons to vegetation indices such as NDVI have shed light on structural and functional controls of seasonal carbon fluxes, and helped refine estimates of the overall carbon balance of the ABZ. A key theme in this study is emphasis of strategies that combine satellite, airborne, and ground based platforms

  16. Future change of climate classification over South Korea in multi regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyeon-Jae; Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun

    2017-04-01

    Regional climate simulations for the CORDEX East Asia domain were conducted between 1981 and 2100 using five models to produce climate change projection based on RCP26, 45, 60, 85 scenarios. In this study using the ensemble of five model results, future changes in climate zones of South Korea were investigated according to Köppen-Trewartha's classification criteria. Four periods, historical (1981 2005), early future (2021 2040), middle future (2041 2070), and late future (2071 2100) were analyzed to examine future changes. In historical (1981 2005) period, the subtropical zones are only dominant in the south coastal regions and Jeju island, while those tend to expand in the future periods. Depending on the RCP scenarios, the more radiative forcing results in the larger subtropical zone over South Korea. The expansion of the subtropical zone in metropolitan areas is more evident than that in rural areas. In addition, the enlargement of subtropical zone in coastal regions is more prominent that in inland regions. Particularly, the subtropical climate zone for the late future period of RCP85 scenario is significantly dominant in most South Korea. Acknowledgement The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  17. Precipitation frequency analysis based on regional climate simulations in Central Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Hanrahan, Janel L.

    2014-03-01

    A Regional Climate Model (RCM), MM5 (the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model), is used to simulate summer precipitation in Central Alberta. MM5 was set up with a one-way, three-domain nested framework, with domain resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km, respectively, and forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The objective is to develop high resolution, grid-based Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves based on the simulated annual maximums of precipitation (AMP) data for durations ranging from 15-min to 24-h. The performance of MM5 was assessed in terms of simulated rainfall intensity, precipitable water, and 2-m air temperature. Next, the grid-based IDF curves derived from MM5 were compared to IDF curves derived from six RCMs of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) set up with 50-km grids, driven with NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) Reanalysis II data, and regional IDF curves derived from observed rain gauge data (RG-IDF). The analyzed results indicate that 6-h simulated precipitable water and 2-m temperature agree well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. However, compared to RG-IDF curves, IDF curves based on simulated precipitation data of MM5 are overestimated especially for IDF curves of 2-year return period. In contract, IDF curves developed from NARCCAP data suffer from under-estimation and differ more from RG-IDF curves than the MM5 IDF curves. The over-estimation of IDF curves of MM5 was corrected by a quantile-based, bias correction method. By dynamically downscale the ERA-Interim and after bias correction, it is possible to develop IDF curves useful for regions with limited or no rain gauge data. This estimation process can be further extended to predict future grid-based IDF curves subjected to possible climate change impacts based on climate

  18. Regional Climate Model Projection Credibility for the North American Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bukovsky, M. S.; Carrillo, C. M.; Gochis, D. J.; Mearns, L. O.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the North American monsoon system are assessed herein. We focus on changes in precipitation and the many factors effecting the projections. The end goal of our in-depth, process-based assessment is to establish the differential credibility of the ensemble members. In the end, there is a deceptively strong full-ensemble agreement for a decrease in precipitation during the monsoon season. Bias is considerably affecting many of the model projections, and we find that the simulations that are the most biased, in varying ways, in the baseline/current climate, produce the greatest decreases. Problems in the baseline simulations and projections include those related to: atmospheric moisture content, the monsoon high, the Gulf of California low-level jet, tropical easterly waves, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation intensity, and other features/phenomena. This presentation will provide a summary of our findings.

  19. Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-28

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

  20. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  1. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  2. Geographical Patterns in Cyanobacteria Distribution: Climate Influence at Regional Scale

    PubMed Central

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies. PMID:24476711

  3. Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

    2007-12-01

    North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

  4. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  5. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-06-23

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  6. A Regional Climate Modeling Study of the Effects of Irrigation and Urbanization on California Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kueppers, L. M.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L. C.; Bryant, S.

    2005-12-01

    California and neighboring states have seen significant changes in land cover and land use over the past century, with expanding urbanization along the Pacific coast and extensive agricultural development inland. Expanded irrigation and urbanization both have implications for local and regional climate due to changes in land surface albedo, vegetation roughness, maximum vegetation cover, and seasonal variation in soil moisture. We modified a regional climate model, RegCM3, which already included irrigated and dryland crop types, to include urban and suburban land cover types. We used the model to quantify the difference in climate between cases using pre-settlement land cover and modern (~1990) land cover. We used 1979-1989 NCEP reanalysis data as input at the model perimeter, encompassing a very wet year and several very dry years. We analyzed the final 8 years of output to give soil moisture adequate time to equilibrate. Irrigated agricultural land in California's Central and Imperial Valleys had the strongest effect on both temperature and relative humidity. During the April-November dry season, monthly average surface temperature was cooler after conversion from pre-settlement vegetation to modern irrigated cropland. During the same period, relative humidity was higher. We found no change in precipitation rates. The effects were likely due to the increased soil water availability with irrigation, as the changes largely vanish during the rainy months of December-March. At the resolution of our model (30km), we found no significant effects of urbanization on local or regional climate. This could be due to the proximity of most urban areas to the coast, or due to the urban parameterization that we employed. Overall, the modeled effect of irrigation on temperature is comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign, to the temperature effect of business-as-usual CO2 increases predicted for California by RegCM. This result emphasizes the need for models of future

  7. Cloud-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Jürg; Schär, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The uncertainties in current global and regional climate model integrations are partly related to the representation of clouds, moist convection, and complex topography. Reducing the grid spacing down to some few kilometers and switching off the convection parameterization (cloud-resolving models) is thus an attractive approach. On climate time scales, cloud-resolving methods have been used for process studies, but application to long-term scenario simulations has been very limited. Here we present cloud-resolving simulations for 10-year-long periods integrated with the COSMO-CLM model and driven by reanalysis data (for present day climate) and a global climate model (control and scenario run). Two one-way nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km for a cloud-resolving model (CRM) over an extended Alpine domain (1100 km x 1100 km), and 12 km for a cloud-parameterizing simulation (CPM) covering Europe. The CRM is driven by lateral boundary conditions from the CPM run, while the CPM run is driven by lateral boundary conditions from ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Earth-System Model of the Max-Planck-Institut (MPI-ESM-LR). Validation is conducted against high-resolution surface data. The CRM model strongly improves the simulation of the diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation, while CPM has a poor diurnal cycle associated with the use of parameterized convection. The assessment of precipitation statistics reveals that both models adequately represent the frequency-intensity distribution for day-long events. For hourly events the CRM has a realistic representation of heavy precipitation events, while the CPM suffers from a strong underestimation. We also present results on the scaling of precipitation extremes with local daily-mean temperature and preliminary results on the projection of heavy precipitation events.

  8. Performance of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations in representing the hydrological cycle of the Niger River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascaro, Giuseppe; White, Dave D.; Westerhoff, Paul; Bliss, Nadya

    2015-12-01

    The water resources of the Niger River basin (NRB) in West Africa are crucial to support the socioeconomic development of nine countries. In this study, we compared and evaluated performances of simulations at 0.44° resolution of several regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrological cycle of the NRB in the current climate. To capture the large range of climatic zones in the region, analyses were conducted by spatially averaging the water balance components in four nested subbasins. Most RCMs overestimate (order of +10% to +400%, depending on model and subbasin) the mean annual difference between precipitation (P) and evaporation (E), whose observed value was assumed equal to the long-term discharge based on the mass conservation principle. This is due to a tendency to simulate larger mean annual P and a weak hydrological cycle in the E channel. Some exceptions appear in the humid most-upstream subbasin, where a few RCMs underestimate P. Overall, the representation of the water balance is mostly sensitive to the parameterized land surface and atmospheric processes of the nested RCMs, with less influence of the driving general circulation model. This finding is supported by further analyses on seasonal cycle and spatial variability of the water balance components and on model performances in reproducing observed climatology. Results of this work should be considered when RCMs are used directly or in impact studies to develop policies and plan investments aimed at ensuring water sustainability in the NRB.

  9. NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    New England weather is highly variable for a number of
    reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
    winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
    1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
    (Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

  10. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    New England weather is highly variable for a number of
    reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
    winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
    1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
    (Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

  12. Crop phenology feedback on climate over central US in a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Z.; Takle, E.; Xue, L.; Segal, M.

    2004-12-01

    The moisture and CO2 fluxes over cropland represent local climate forcing and an important component of atmospheric energy and CO2 budgets. Since observed fluxes, especially for CO2, are rarely available over extensive areas the fluxes are mainly estimated by climate models. The carbon sequestration and water consumption by crops are only crudely represented in the models. For example, most climate models use climatological or static crop growth and development that do not change from year to year, indistinguishable between flood and drought years. To improve the moisture and CO2 fluxes (i.e., photosynthesis) from crops we coupled crop models (CERES for corn and CropGro for soybean) with the regional model (MM5) along with the land surface model (LSM). This crop-climate coupled model with interactive crop phenology can simulate interannual variations in CO2 and water fluxes from the surface. The coupled model was used to simulate CO2 and moisture fluxes in the past couple of growing seasons in the central U.S. Results were compared with available CO2 flux observations at some AmeriFlux sites. It is found that the coupled model gives more realistic seasonal accumulation of CO2 fluxes and that the dynamic crop development in the coupled model has a strong feedback on regional precipitation. The typical climate models using static crop phenology significantly overestimate CO2 fluxes during early growing season because of positive biases in specifying leaf area index.

  13. Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böhm, U.; Kücken, M.; Hauffe, D.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Werner, P. C.; Flechsig, M.; Keuler, K.; Block, A.; Ahrens, W.; Nocke, Th.

    2004-06-01

    We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be

  14. Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanna, Jaya

    More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of

  15. Regional differences in climate change of the ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lastovicka, Jan

    2016-07-01

    The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide CO2, in the atmosphere affects not only the troposphere and surface climate, it affects the whole atmosphere-ionosphere system and it induces long-term trends and/or climate change in the ionosphere. The geographic distribution of CO2 in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere is relatively homogeneous and the long-term increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known to be stable. However, there are some other secondary drivers of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere, whose long-term behavior and/or effects either are not spatially homogeneous or are not stable in time (or both). Geomagnetic activity, solar activity, secular change of the Earth's magnetic field, long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone concentration and atmospheric wave activity are such trend drivers. They are responsible for regional differences in trends and also for their temporal non-stability. Regions of strong trends as a consequence of regional differences of trends represent a specific kind of risk from the point of view of space/ionospheric climate. These features of ionospheric trends will briefly be treated in this presentation.

  16. The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

  17. Early Benefits of Mitigation in Risk of Regional Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2015-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected over the coming century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue on a business as usual path or are substantially reduced following an aggressive mitigation strategy. However, it has previously been claimed that it will take many decades for there to be any significant difference between paths of aggressive mitigation and business as usual with the emergence of differences only seen towards the middle of the century. Here we show that important differences in our exposure to risk of climate extremes in many land regions emerges much more quickly. Without substantial mitigation, in many regions of the world, extreme (one in 20-year) seasonal, regional near surface air temperatures are found to have become more than twice as likely within only 15 years (i.e. by 2030). Therefore our exposure to climate risk is reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive mitigation. This demonstrates that the benefits of mitigation are realised rapidly and it is not necessary to wait until the middle of the century as has previously been claimed.

  18. Adaptation and the Two-Degree Target - Regional Climate Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreienkamp, F.; Hübener, H.; Spekat, A.; Wolf, H.

    2010-09-01

    In the current debate on climate change, countries are preparing for adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. For example, Germany has decided its Adaptation Strategy in December 2008. It is the ensuing responsibility of the German Federal States to put this strategy into adaptation measures and specific action. However, to decide on such critical and expensive actions, reliable climate change information is needed. Depending on the relevant sector, this information is required on different scales in time and space. Furthermore, global policy discusses the two-degree target aiming to contain climate change to a warming of less than two degrees relative to pre-industrial values. It is currently discussed, whether or not this goal can be reached at all. However, as governmental bodies, the Environmental Agencies need to address the political aim of the two-degree target and have to respond to the implied climate change signals. At the moment no very high resolution (~10km) climate projections are available for a scenario which stays within the bounds of the two degree target. Therefore, a different approach was taken and will be presented: Global climate simulations with the ECHAM5 model have been evaluated as to the time when the global average warming hits the mark of two degrees above the pre-industrial level. Moreover, this approach is applied for different available SRES scenarios. 30-year time slices were selected centered at these instants in time. The resulting time slices were analyzed in the high resolution RCM simulations of dynamical (CCLM and REMO) as well as statistical (WETTREG) type, driven with the respective GCM scenario run. Thus, a minimum climate change is assessed as the lower bound for which adaptation measures will be definitely necessary. As it turns out, the relevant time frame assessed from the global climate simulations is 2036--2065 for scenario A1B, 2041--2070 for scenario A2 and 2051--2080 for scenario B1. In addition, the

  19. The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schimanke, S.; Meier, H. E. M.; Kjellström, E.; Strandberg, G.; Hordoir, R.

    2012-09-01

    Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

  20. Summer dryness in a warmer climate: a process study with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Pal, J. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.; Schär, C.

    2002-06-01

    Earlier GCM studies have expressed the concern that an enhancement of greenhouse warming might increase the occurrence of summer droughts in mid-latitudes, especially in southern Europe and central North America. This could represent a severe threat for agriculture in the regions concerned, where summer is the main growing season. These predictions must however be considered as uncertain, since most studies featuring enhanced summer dryness in mid-latitudes use very simple representations of the land-surface processes ("bucket" models), despite their key importance for the issue considered. The current study uses a regional climate model including a land-surface scheme of intermediate complexity to investigate the sensitivity of the summer climate to enhanced greenhouse warming over the American Midwest. A surrogate climate change scenario is used for the simulation of a warmer climate. The control runs are driven at the lateral boundaries and the sea surface by reanalysis data and observations, respectively. The warmer climate experiments are forced by a modified set of initial and lateral boundary conditions. The modifications consist of a uniform 3 K temperature increase and an attendant increase of specific humidity (unchanged relative humidity). This strategy maintains a similar dynamical forcing in the warmer climate experiments, thus allowing to investigate thermodynamical impacts of climate change in comparative isolation. The atmospheric CO2 concentration of the sensitivity experiments is set to four times its pre-industrial value. The simulations are conducted from March 15 to October 1st, for 4 years corresponding to drought (1988), normal (1986, 1990) and flood (1993) conditions. The numerical experiments do not present any great enhancement of summer drying under warmer climatic conditions. First, the overall changes in the hydrological cycle (especially evapotranspiration) are of small magnitude despite the strong forcing applied. Second

  1. Local and regional climate change in the Mojave Desert, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, James Aaron

    2007-12-01

    In this study, the role of urbanization and atmospheric circulation on the climate of the Mojave Desert was examined using a variety of methods and datasets to uncover patterns of change at the local to regional level over the last sixty years. The three basic research questions that informed the dissertation were; (1) what is the effect of urbanization on local to regional climate; (2) what are the regional trends in Mojave Desert climate; and, (3) can trends in local to regional climate be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation? Urban effects were widespread with mean and minimum temperature trends 2 to 3 times greater than the regional average. In general, minimum temperatures increased by 2.5--5°C at urban stations, while rural areas warmed by less than 1.5°C, if at all. In the largest city, Las Vegas, a daytime urban cool island linked to increased air pollution and atmospheric moisture was observed. In the smaller Mojave cities, such as St. George, UT, daytime heat islands formed as maximum temperature increased by 1--3°C. Regional urban effects were observed in a day-of-week (DOW) cycle in precipitation downwind of Las Vegas that matched DOW air pollution (PM10) variability. Between 1994 and 2003, 32% more precipitation occurred during the Wednesday to Friday (weekday) period than the Saturday to Monday (weekend) period with average precipitation intensity 13% greater during the weekday period. The Mojave Desert is experiencing summer-like conditions earlier in the year due to a 2--3°C increase in the average spring temperature, while temperatures are also increasing during the summer. Thus, a longer and hotter summer season is occurring throughout the Mojave. The frequency of warm atmospheric circulation patterns increased at the expense of colder ones leading to temperature increases in the Mojave Desert. For example, 65% of the regional trend in winter minimum temperature is due to a change in circulation patterns alone. Overall, the data

  2. Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 2: Summer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Rind, David

    1989-01-01

    Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.

  3. Nested Cohort

    Cancer.gov

    NestedCohort is an R software package for fitting Kaplan-Meier and Cox Models to estimate standardized survival and attributable risks for studies where covariates of interest are observed on only a sample of the cohort.

  4. Transient Climate Change over California at a Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L. C.

    2003-12-01

    Steady-state experiments of future climate change using regional climate models (RCM) have shown increased temperature, decreased snow accumulation and changes in precipitation over California under doubled preindustrial CO2 concentrations. The forcing of these early experiments was done using global climate model (GCM) data with fixed sea surface temperatures (SST) and fixed CO2 concentrations. Since SSTs were fixed, important feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere were not included in these experiments. Also, the CO2 concentrations are set to a single value throughout the experiments, and did not evolve as a function of time. To address these issues, we have taken global climate model output from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, the NCAR CCSM1, for the time periods 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 and used that output to drive a RCM with a domain centered over California. The CO2 concentrations in these experiments increase as function of time and thus are a more realistic representation of actual changes. CO2 values for the future time period (2080-2090) are based on projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Initial results from these experiments show increased temperatures by up to 5° C on a monthly basis. Snow accumulation is decreased dramatically by over 220 mm snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Our results show precipitation increases over the northern half of the state in January and February and decreases in the same region in December. Precipitation also decreases over the Sierra Nevada Mountains in March and May.

  5. Inter-variable relations in regional climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcke, R.; Chandler, R. E.; Prein, A. F.

    2015-12-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) intent to provide physically consistent climate data to the climate change impact research community. However, the effects of parametrisations of unresolved sub-grid processes and systematic biases in the model output requires not only a post-processing in form of bias adjustment but also an analysis of inter-variable relations. Many impact models require several climate variables as input data, which makes it necessary to check if the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by RCMs. A common practice is to bias adjust RCM output variables to improve their individual distribution and mean climate characteristics. This can be done by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping. However, applying statistical bias adjustment procedures on individual variables may alter the inter-variable relationships given by the climate model and hence distort the physical consistency.In our study we examined the inter-variable relations of RCM output variables by using estimates of conditional probability density functions for pairs of variables. Conditional densities obtained from multiple European RCMs were compared with those obtained from observations. We quantified the extent to which these conditional density estimates are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. Additionally, the influence of the model physics on the representation of inter-variable relations is analysed for a 24 member perturbed physics ensemble of WRF simulations in the U.S.. Here, multiple observational data sets were used to address the influence of observational uncertainties on the analysis. Finally, the results obtained from the European and U.S. modelling initiatives are compared to provide a common basis on the representation of inter-variable relations in RCM outputs.

  6. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed

    Githeko, A K; Lindsay, S W; Confalonieri, U E; Patz, J A

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.

  7. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Githeko, A. K.; Lindsay, S. W.; Confalonieri, U. E.; Patz, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. PMID:11019462

  8. The range of regional climate change projections in central Europe: How to deal with the spread of climate model results?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rechid, D.; Jacob, D.; Podzun, R.

    2010-09-01

    The regional climate change projections for central Europe in the 21st century show a large spread of simulated temperature and precipitation trends due to natural variability and modelling uncertainties. The questions are how to extract robust climate change signals and how to transfer the range of possible temperature and precipitation trends to climate change impact studies and adaptation strategies? Within the BMBF funded research priority "KLIMZUG - Managing Climate Change in the Regions of the Future", innovative strategies for adaptation to climate change are developed. The funding activity particularly stresses the regional aspect since the global problem climate change must be tackled by measures at regional and local level. The focus of the joint project "KLIMZUG-NORD - Strategic Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in the Hamburg Metropolitan Region" is to establish an interdisciplinary network between the research, administrative and economic sectors in this region. The regional climate change information is provided by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology as input for climate change impact assessments. The cross-sectional task "climate change" is to prepare consistent regional climate data and to advise on its reasonable use. The project benefits from the results of the ENSEMBLES EU project, in which an extensive set of regional climate change simulations at 50 km horizontal resolution were performed for 1950 to 2100. For impact studies, higher horizontal resolutions are required. With the regional climate model REMO, three global climate change scenarios from ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled to 50 km with three ensemble members each. In a second step, some members were further downscaled to 10 km for central Europe. For the global and regional simulations, the trends were analysed and indicate a strong internal climate variability, which further increases the range of climate change simulation results. This all recommends the application of 1

  9. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  10. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  11. Context Dependent Effect of Landscape on the Occurrence of an Apex Predator across Different Climate Regions

    PubMed Central

    Fujita, Go; Azuma, Atsuki; Nonaka, Jun; Sakai, Yoshiaki; Sakai, Hatsumi; Iseki, Fumitaka; Itaya, Hiroo; Fukasawa, Keita; Miyashita, Tadashi

    2016-01-01

    In studies of habitat suitability at landscape scales, transferability of species-landscape associations among sites are likely to be critical because it is often impractical to collect datasets across various regions. However, limiting factors, such as prey availability, are not likely to be constant across scales because of the differences in species pools. This is particularly true for top predators that are often the target for conservation concern. Here we focus on gray-faced buzzards, apex predators of farmland-dominated landscapes in East Asia. We investigated context dependency of “buzzard-landscape relationship”, using nest location datasets from five sites, each differing in landscape composition. Based on the similarities of prey items and landscape compositions across the sites, we determined several alternative ways of grouping the sites, and then examined whether buzzard-landscape relationship change among groups, which was conducted separately for each way of grouping. As a result, the model of study-sites grouping based on similarities in prey items showed the smallest ΔAICc. Because the terms of interaction between group IDs and areas of broad-leaved forests and grasslands were selected, buzzard-landscape relationship showed a context dependency, i.e., these two landscape elements strengthen the relationship in southern region. The difference in prey fauna, which is associated with the difference in climate, might generate regional differences in the buzzard-landscape associations. PMID:27123930

  12. Context Dependent Effect of Landscape on the Occurrence of an Apex Predator across Different Climate Regions.

    PubMed

    Fujita, Go; Azuma, Atsuki; Nonaka, Jun; Sakai, Yoshiaki; Sakai, Hatsumi; Iseki, Fumitaka; Itaya, Hiroo; Fukasawa, Keita; Miyashita, Tadashi

    2016-01-01

    In studies of habitat suitability at landscape scales, transferability of species-landscape associations among sites are likely to be critical because it is often impractical to collect datasets across various regions. However, limiting factors, such as prey availability, are not likely to be constant across scales because of the differences in species pools. This is particularly true for top predators that are often the target for conservation concern. Here we focus on gray-faced buzzards, apex predators of farmland-dominated landscapes in East Asia. We investigated context dependency of "buzzard-landscape relationship", using nest location datasets from five sites, each differing in landscape composition. Based on the similarities of prey items and landscape compositions across the sites, we determined several alternative ways of grouping the sites, and then examined whether buzzard-landscape relationship change among groups, which was conducted separately for each way of grouping. As a result, the model of study-sites grouping based on similarities in prey items showed the smallest ΔAICc. Because the terms of interaction between group IDs and areas of broad-leaved forests and grasslands were selected, buzzard-landscape relationship showed a context dependency, i.e., these two landscape elements strengthen the relationship in southern region. The difference in prey fauna, which is associated with the difference in climate, might generate regional differences in the buzzard-landscape associations.

  13. On how climate variability influences regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Forootan, Ehsan

    2016-04-01

    Regional trends in sea level change are strongly influenced by climate variations, such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Hence, before computing long term regional sea level change, these sea level variations need to be taken into account as they lead to strong dependencies of computed regional sea level trends on the time period of the investigation. In this study, sea level change during the years 1993 to 2013 is analysed to identify the dominant modes of sea level change caused by climate variations. Here, two different gridded altimetry products are analysed, namely ESA's combined CCI SeaLevel v1.1 ECV product (doi: 10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2013-v_1.1-201412), and absolute dynamic topography produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/). Reconstructions using the different decomposition techniques including the standard principle component analysis (PCA), rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) and independent component analysis (ICA) method are analysed. They are compared with sea level change modelled with the global finite-element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). The results indicate that from the applied methods, ICA is most suitable to separate the individual climate variability signals in independent modes of sea level change. This especially holds for extracting the ENSO contribution in sea level changes, which was better separated by applying ICA, from both altimetry and modelled sea level products. In addition, it is presented how modelled sea level change reflects climate variations compared to that identified in the altimetry products.

  14. CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Termonia, Piet; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; De Ridder, Koen; Fettweis, Xavier; Gobin, Anne; Luyten, Patrick; Marbaix, Philippe; Pottiaux, Eric; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Van Lipzig, Nicole; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond" is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups eight Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

  15. CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Termonia, P.

    2015-12-01

    The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond", is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups 8 Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

  16. "The Effect of Alternative Representations of Lake Temperatures and Ice on WRF Regional Climate Simulations"

    EPA Science Inventory

    Lakes can play a significant role in regional climate, modulating inland extremes in temperature and enhancing precipitation. Representing these effects becomes more important as regional climate modeling (RCM) efforts focus on simulating smaller scales. When using the Weathe...

  17. "The Effect of Alternative Representations of Lake Temperatures and Ice on WRF Regional Climate Simulations"

    EPA Science Inventory

    Lakes can play a significant role in regional climate, modulating inland extremes in temperature and enhancing precipitation. Representing these effects becomes more important as regional climate modeling (RCM) efforts focus on simulating smaller scales. When using the Weathe...

  18. Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

    2016-12-01

    The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

  19. Improving the Resolution of Climate Models to Address Regional Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.

    2009-12-01

    Simulating the Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Workshop in the Bridging Disciplines, Bridging Scale Series; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 20-22 July 2009; For decades, general circulation models (GCMs) have been one of the primary tools used to understand anthropogenic climate change. Now GCMs are faced with a substantially more complicated task: to provide information of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to support policy initiatives that will address regional climate change. Different approaches are being developed and used to provide this information, including dynamic downscaling with limited area models (LAMs); high-resolution GCMs with quasi-uniform and variable-resolution grids; and statistical downscaling of limited area and global simulations. At a workshop in New Mexico, participants discussed each method's strengths and limitations as well as associated uncertainty.

  20. Climate regionalization for main production areas of Indonesia: Case study of West Java

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdinan; Farysca Adi, Ryco; Sugiarto, Yon; Arifah, Annisa; Yustisi Arini, Enggar; Atmaja, Tri

    2017-01-01

    Spatially, climate condition is vary within a region and considered as essential information for planning activities such as agro-climate zonation. An approach to understand the spatial climate variability is the utilization of climate regionalization that is applied to rainfall data to distinguish differences in the pattern and magnitude (characteristics) of spatial rainfall variability over a region. Unfortunately, the application of climate regionalization poses a challenging issue in Indonesia, considering the availability of climate data. Recent advances in satellite and reanalysis data measuring climate variability over a large area provided an opportunity for the application of climate regionalization in the country. Using the West Java, one of main crop production regions in Indonesia, climate regionalization techniques were applied to map spatial variability of climate types based on rainfall data recorded by climate stations (point based analysis) and estimated by modeled/reanalysis data and satellite observations (gridded data). The regionalization derived from gridded rainfall data have reasonably better in capturing the zonal pattern of differences in climate types within the study region than the regionalization applied to insufficient numbers of site-based rainfall observation. This indicates that the gridded data offers an alternative for climate regionalization, when site-based observations are unavailable or limited.

  1. Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

    2013-04-01

    ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main features of the RCM ALARO-Climate and results of the first model simulations on longer time-scales (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40/Interim re-analyses and run on the large pan-European integration domain ("ENSEMBLES / Euro-Cordex domain") with spatial resolution of 25 km. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version 7 dataset. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation has revealed significant cold biases in all seasons (between -4 and -2 °C) and overestimation of precipitation on 20% to 60% in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The consequent adaptations in the model and their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables are illustrated. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0073). The partial support was also provided under the projects P209-11-0956 of the Czech Science Foundation and CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056 (Operational Programme of Education for Competitiveness of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic).

  2. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  3. Impacts of Amazon deforestation on regional weather and climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medvigy, D.; Walko, R. L.; Avissar, R.

    2010-12-01

    Recent deforestation projections estimate that 40% of the Amazon rainforest will be deforested by 2050. Many modeling studies have indicated that deforestation will reduce average rainfall in the Amazon. However, very few studies have investigated the potential for deforestation to change the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. To fill this gap in our understanding, we use a variable-resolution GCM to investigate how precipitation and temperature extremes throughout South America respond to deforestation. The model’s grid mesh is set up to cover South America and nearby oceans at mesoscale (25 km) resolution, and then to gradually coarsen and cover the rest of the world at 200 km resolution. This approach differs from the two most common current approaches: (1) to use a GCM with too coarse of a resolution to evaluate regional climate extremes, or (2) to use a regional atmospheric model that requires lateral boundary conditions from a GCM or reanalysis. We find that deforestation induces large changes in winter (June-July-August) climate throughout much of South America. Extreme cold events become much more common along the eastern slopes of the Andes. The largest changes were in the western Amazon and, surprisingly, in Argentina, far from the actual deforested area. We also find shifts in precipitation extremes, especially in September-October-November. Such changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have important consequences for agriculture, natural ecosystems, and human society.

  4. Urban precipitation extremes: How reliable are regional climate models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Vimal; Dominguez, Francina; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2012-02-01

    We evaluate the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to reproduce the historical season of occurrence, mean, and variability of 3 and 24-hour precipitation extremes for 100 urban areas across the United States. We show that RCMs with both reanalysis and global climate model (GCM) boundary conditions behave similarly and underestimate 3-hour precipitation maxima across almost the entire U.S. RCMs with both boundary conditions broadly capture the season of occurrence of precipitation maxima except in the interior of the western U.S. and the southeastern U.S. On the other hand, the RCMs do much better in identifying the season of 24-hour precipitation maxima. For mean annual precipitation maxima, regardless of the boundary condition, RCMs consistently show high (low) bias for locations in the western (eastern) U.S. Our results indicate that RCM-simulated 3-hour precipitation maxima at 100-year return period could be considered acceptable for stormwater infrastructure design at less than 12% of the 100 urban areas (regardless of boundary conditions). RCM performance for 24-hour precipitation maxima was slightly better, with performance acceptable for stormwater infrastructure design judged adequate at about 25% of the urban areas.

  5. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  6. Serenbe Nest Cottages

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Kim, E.; Roberts, S.; Stephenson, R.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with Martin Dodson Builders and the Serenbe community on the construction of a new test home in the suburbs of Atlanta, GA in the mixed humid climate zone. The most recent subdivision within the Serenbe community, the Nest, will contain 15 small footprint cottage style homes, and Southface has selected Lot Nine, as the test home for this study. This Nest subdivision serves as a project showcase for both the builder partner and the Serenbe community as a whole. The planning and design incorporated into the Nest cottages will be implemented in each home within the subdivision. These homes addresses Building America Savings targets and serve as a basis of design for other homes Martin Dodson plans to build within the Serenbe community.

  7. Serenbe Nest Cottages

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Kim, E.; Roberts, S.; Stephenson, R.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with Martin Dodson Builders and the Serenbe community on the construction of a new test home in the suburbs of Atlanta, GA, in the mixed humid climate zone. The most recent subdivision within the Serenbe community, the Nest, will contain 15 small footprint cottage-style homes, and Southface has selected Lot Nine, as the test home for this study. This Nest subdivision serves as a project showcase for both the builder partner and the Serenbe community as a whole. The planning and design incorporated into the Nest cottages will be implemented in each home within the subdivision. These homes addresses Building America savings targets and serve as a basis of design for other homes Martin Dodson plans to build within the Serenbe community.

  8. Present and future near-surface wind climate of Greenland from high resolution regional climate modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorter, W.; van Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2014-03-01

    The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values (κ > 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values (κ < 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081-2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m-2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s-1.

  9. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  10. A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    With the increase of computational resources, it has recently become possible to perform climate model integrations where at least part the of convection is resolved. Since convection-permitting models (CPMs) are performing better than models where convection is parameterized, especially for high-impact weather like extreme precipitation, there is currently strong scientific progress in this research domain (Prein et al., 2015). Another advantage of CPMs, that have a horizontal grid spacing <4 km, is that they better resolve complex orography and land use. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM is frequently applied for CPM simulations, due to its non-hydrostatic dynamics and open international network of scientists. This presentation consists of an overview of the recent progress in CPM, with a focus on COSMO-CLM. It consists of three parts, namely the discussion of i) critical components of CPM, ii) the added value of CPM in the present-day climate and iii) the difference in climate sensitivity in CPM compared to coarser scale models. In terms of added value, the CPMs especially improve the representation of precipitation's, diurnal cycle, intensity and spatial distribution. However, an in depth-evaluation of cloud properties with CCLM over Belgium indicates a strong underestimation of the cloud fraction, causing an overestimation of high temperature extremes (Brisson et al., 2016). In terms of climate sensitivity, the CPMs indicate a stronger increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains compared to coarser scale models. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, additional efforts are necessary to overcome remaining deficiencies, like improving the cloud characteristics. This will be a challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in `state-of-the-art' models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light

  11. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  12. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; de Lavergne, Jean-Guy Devezeaux; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-02-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Kim, Jinwon

    1996-09-01

    The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model has been under development since 1991. The unique system simulates climate from the global scale down to the watershed catchment scale, and consists of data pre- and post- processors, and four model components. The four model components are (1) a mesoscale atmospheric simulation model, (2) a soil-plant-snow model, (3) a watershed hydrology-riverflow model, and (4) a suite of crop response models. The first three model components have been coupled, and the system includes two-way feedbacks between the soil-plant-snow model and the mesoscale atmospheric simulation model. This three-component version of RCSM has been tested, validated, and successfully used for operational quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal water resource studies over the southwestern US. We are currently implementation and validating the fourth component, the Decision Support system for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A description of the UC-LLNL RCSM and some recent results are presented.

  15. Effects of agricultural burning on nesting waterfowl

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fritzell, E.K.

    1975-01-01

    Agricultural burning in an intensively farmed region within Manitoba's pothole district is shown to affect the nesting activities of ground-nesting ducks. All species, except Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors), preferred unburned nest cover, although success was higher in burned areas, where predators may have exerted less influence. Attitudes of farmers, burning chronology, and nest destruction by fires are also reported.

  16. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  17. Development of 21st Century Regional Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiggins, A.; Bailey, M.; Dello, K.; Mote, P.

    2011-12-01

    Alex Wiggins - Oregon State University - wigginal@engr.oregonstate.edu Mike Bailey - Oregon State University - mjb@eecs.oregonstate.edu Kathie Dello - Oregon Climate Change Research Institute - kdello@coas.oregonstate.edu Phil Mote - Oregon State University - pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu State climate offices respond frequently to requests regarding past events and current weather with its long-term context. Answering some of these requests may require examining many different sources of data, some quite voluminous. The general public and media, however, are not interested in huge amounts of data or spending the time sifting through it; they only want the information they requested and they usually want it immediately. Our Regional Climate Services (RCS) project was developed as a solution to thinly funded state climate offices to allow users to visualize and explore many different data sets at any time without using the resources of the climate offices. The developed web application for the RCS project currently tries to balance the need for vast amounts of data to be able to compare all facets of the data sets, with tools to pre-process and compress the information to quickly deliver informative content to users and maintain an excellent experience. RCS employs the use of prefetching of data for user experience, pre-processing of tiled images and data comparisons, memory caching server side, and data manipulation client side using shaders and the gpu for data culling and scaling to give clients a great experience and limit the amount of data transfer and recalculation from the server. Allowing the client to do data manipulation client side we are saving terabytes of preprocessed images and data that would have to be stored to maintain the user experience as well as allowing them to create useful visualizations and explore the data sets completely.

  18. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  19. {open_quotes}Feature{close_quotes} mapping of the HLA-C linked DNA region: Construction by sequencing from nested deletions

    SciTech Connect

    Krishnan, B.R.; Chaplin, D.D. |

    1994-09-01

    The HLA complex located on chromosome 6p spans {approximately}4 Mb and is gene dense. To enable systematic analysis of less well-characterized portions of HLA, we are defining significant {open_quotes}features{close_quotes} of these DNA regions: locations of putative genes (prediction of exons by GRAIL analysis) and Alu elements, regions with homology to the database, and regions of evolutionarily conserved DNA sequence. Initially, we cloned a 35 kb DNA segment adjacent to HLA-C into a transposon {gamma}{delta}-based cosmid vector designed for generating nested deletions in vivo. Over 70 informative nested deletions were obtained and sequenced by fluorescent-automated technology. Islands of DNA sequences were obtained and used to construct a feature map of the 35 kb HLA segment. Our data (i) defined the organization of the previously identified keratinocyte-specific S gene, (ii) generated the DNA sequence of two evolutionarily conserved DNA segments, and (iii) located otherwise undefined putative exons and Alu elements. The construction of such feature maps of large DNA segments using the nested deletion-sequencing approach provides an efficient means to identify DNA segments meriting systematic and detailed analysis.

  20. Regional Climate Downscaling Using a High-resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunhu Bangalath, Hamza; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we used HIRAM, a high-resolution atmospheric model [Zhao et al., 2009] for climate downscaling with the horizontal grid spacing of 25 km. Our simulations followed the CORDEX protocol [Giorgi et al., 2009] and were conducted for historic (1975-2006) and future (2005-2050) periods using both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Compared with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2.0 and AM2.1 [Delworth et al., 2006], HIRAM uses enhanced vertical discretization on 32 vertical layers instead of 24 and replaces the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convective closure with the one developed at the University of Washington. The model retains the surface flux, boundary layer, large-scale cloud microphysics, and radiative transfer modules from the AM2 family [Delworth et al., 2006]. HIRAM also employs a cubed-sphere implementation (here at 25-km resolution) of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. In our simulations, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) from the GFDL Earth System Model runs, ESM2M and ESM2G, performed for the International Panel for Climate Change AR5 project with a latitude-longitude grid of 2°x2.5° were adopted as the bottom boundary conditions over the sea. We used prescribed time-varying greenhouse gas and stratospheric/tropospheric aerosol distribution datasets to reproduce the observed radiative forcing in the model as described by Delworth et al. [2006]. Here, we present results for the CORDEX Middle East and North Africa domain and compared them with the coarse-resolution ESM2M/ESM2G simulations as well as with the nested regional model projections. Delworth, T. et al. (2006), GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643-674. Giorgi, F., C. Jones, and G. Asrar (2009), Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: The CORDEX framework. WMO Bull., 58, 175-183 Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S-J. Lin

  1. A regional dynamic vegetation-climate model for Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snell, R. S.; Cowling, S. A.; Smith, B.

    2009-12-01

    Global vegetation models simulate the distribution of vegetation as a function of climate. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are also able to simulate the vegetation shifts in response to climate change, which makes them particularly useful for addressing questions about past and future climate scenarios. However, DGVMs have been criticized for using generic plant functional types (PFTs) and running the models at a coarse grid cell resolution. Regional dynamic vegetation models are able to simulate important landscape variation, since they use a finer resolution and specific PFTs for their region. Regional studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe. We will be presenting the results of applying a dynamic regional vegetation-climate model (LPJ-GUESS) for Central America. Initially, the model was run with the described global PFTs. However, several biomes were very poorly represented. Two PFTs were added: a Tropical Needleleaf Evergreen Tree to improve the simulation of the Mixed Pine-Oak biome, and a Desert Shrub to capture the Xeric Shrublands. The overall distribution of biomes was visually similar, however the Kappa statistic indicated a poor agreement with the potential biome map (overall Kappa = 0.301). The Kappa statistic did improve as we aggregated cell sizes and simplified the biomes (overall Kappa = 0.728). Compared to remote sensing data, the model showed a strong correlation with total LAI (r = 0.75). The poor Kappa statistic is likely due to a combination of factors. The way in which biomes are defined by the author can have a large influence on the level of agreement between simulated and potential vegetation. The Kappa statistic is also limited to comparing individual grid cells and thus, cannot detect overall patterns. Examining those areas which are poorly represented will help to identify future work and improve the representation of vegetation in these ecological models. In particular, the

  2. Investigation into regional climate variability using tree-ring reconstruction, climate diagnostics and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barandiaran, Daniel A.

    This document is a summary of research conducted to develop and apply climate analysis tools toward a better understanding of the past and future of hydroclimate variability in the state of Utah. Two pilot studies developed data management and climate analysis tools subsequently applied to our region of interest. The first investigated the role of natural atmospheric forcing in the inter-annual variability of precipitation of the Sahel region in Africa, and found a previously undocumented link with the East Atlantic mode, which explains 29% of variance in regional precipitation. An analysis of output from an operational seasonal climate forecast model revealed a failure in the model to reproduce this linkage, thus highlighting a shortcoming in model performance. The second pilot study studied long-term trends in the strength of the Great Plains low-level jet, an driver of storm development in the region's wet spring season. Our analysis showed that since 1979 the low-level jet has strengthened as shifted the timing of peak activity, resulting in shifts both in time and location for peak precipitation, possibly the result of anthropogenic forcing. Our third study used a unique tree-ring dataset to create a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent, an important measure of water supply in the Intermountain West, for the state of Utah to 1850. Analysis of the reconstruction shows the majority of snowpack variability occurs monotonically over the whole state at decadal to multidecadal frequencies. The final study evaluated decadal prediction performance of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We found that the analyzed models exhibit modest skill in prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and better skill in prediction of global temperature trends post 1960.

  3. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  4. NOAA's Regional Climate Services Program: Building Relationships with Partners and Customers to Deliver Trusted Climate Information at Usable Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mecray, E. L.; Dissen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Federal agencies across multiple sectors from transportation to health, emergency management and agriculture, are now requiring their key stakeholders to identify and plan for climate-related impacts. Responding to the drumbeat for climate services at the regional and local scale, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formed its Regional Climate Services (RCS) program to include Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSD), Regional Climate Centers, and state climatologists in a partnership. Since 2010, the RCS program has engaged customers across the country and amongst many of the nation's key economic sectors to compile information requirements, deliver climate-related products and services, and build partnerships among federal agencies and their regional climate entities. The talk will include a sketch from the Eastern Region that may shed light on the interaction of the multiple entities working at the regional scale. Additionally, we will show examples of our interagency work with the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and others in NOAA to deliver usable and trusted climate information and resources. These include webinars, print material, and face-to-face customer engagements to gather and respond to information requirements. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's RCSDs work on-the-ground to learn from customers about their information needs and their use of existing tools and resources. As regional leads, the RCSDs work within NOAA and with our regional partners to ensure the customer receives a broad picture of the tools and information from across the nation.

  5. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  6. Climate change in California - why is this region especially vulnerable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.

    2008-12-01

    It is very likely that global warming has already been affecting the California region., and global model projections indicate that much larger changes will unfold over the coming decades. In this talk we review results from two recent State-sponsored assessments of prospective climate change scenarios for California, which indicate that impacts in this region may be particularly challenging. Among the rest of the United States, the annual delivery of precipitation in this region is remarkably volatile, being prone to multi- year droughts and occasional wet spells and large storms-climate change may exacerbate this. An important part of the water supply that historically has come in the form of snow in mountain watersheds will probably shift to rain, which is harder to manage and save for dry summer irrigation and other forms of consumption. Furthermore, much of the water supply is conveyed through the San Franciso Bay/Delta, a complex estuary that will be impacted by bigger floods and rising sea levels.

  7. Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, M.; Holman, K.; Zarrin, A.; Fluck, E.; Vavrus, S. J.; Bennington, V.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region, while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October-March and decreases during May-August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea-level pressure in autumn-winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

  8. Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

    2017-04-01

    Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may have substantial biases in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5 degree grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This is because T2 over land only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s. These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

  9. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  10. Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region Driven by Three Global Data Sets

    SciTech Connect

    Zhong, Shiyuan; Li, Xiuping; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2012-06-27

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of nonconvective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.

  11. Climatic characteristics and regionalization of fogs in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, T. Y.; Chen, S. C.; Han, S. Q.; Shan, X. L.; Meng, L. H.

    2017-01-01

    Using trend coefficient method, vector analysis method, and monitored meteorological data across China, climatic characteristics and spatial pattern of fogs in China were investigated. The results show that most fogs occur in southeastern China. Thin fogs usually occur in fog-rare regions and dense fogs take place in fog-prone regions. The number of annual fog days in most regions of China exhibits a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2010. It also found that the regions with more fog days correspond to the lower concentration degree of fogs, and vice versa. In terms of the national scale, the concentration periods of fogs are mainly in November, December, and January in China. We further classified the occurrence frequencies of fogs into five spatial distribution patterns over a single year according to the spatial distribution characteristics of fogs occurrence frequencies of 36 dekads, namely, a whole year can be correspondingly divided into five phases. Based on this, multi-year average fog-prone regions in the five phases are obtained. Our results also identify the high incidence periods of fogs in different fog-prone regions.

  12. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  13. Using Regional Climate Projections to Guide Grassland Community Restoration in the Face of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Kane, Kristin; Debinski, Diane M; Anderson, Chris; Scasta, John D; Engle, David M; Miller, James R

    2017-01-01

    Grassland loss has been extensive worldwide, endangering the associated biodiversity and human well-being that are both dependent on these ecosystems. Ecologists have developed approaches to restore grassland communities and many have been successful, particularly where soils are rich, precipitation is abundant, and seeds of native plant species can be obtained. However, climate change adds a new filter needed in planning grassland restoration efforts. Potential responses of species to future climate conditions must also be considered in planning for long-term resilience. We demonstrate this methodology using a site-specific model and a maximum entropy approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for 33 grassland plant species in the tallgrass prairie region of the U.S. using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A1B and A2. The A1B scenario predicts an increase in temperature from 1.4 to 6.4°C, whereas the A2 scenario predicts temperature increases from 2 to 5.4°C and much greater CO2 emissions than the A1B scenario. Both scenarios predict these changes to occur by the year 2100. Model projections for 2040 under the A1B scenario predict that all but three modeled species will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Then by 2080, all species except for one will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Models run using the A2 scenario predict declines in habitat for just four species by 2040, but models predict that by 2080, habitat suitability will decline for all species. The A2 scenario appears based on our results to be the less severe climate change scenario for our species. Our results demonstrate that many common species, including grasses, forbs, and shrubs, are sensitive to climate change. Thus, grassland restoration alternatives should be evaluated based upon the long-term viability in the context of climate change projections and risk of plant species loss.

  14. Regional monitoring of environmental physics climate related anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Askary, Hesham

    2004-11-01

    Scientific communities have been working in creating and enhancing scientific research programs in which in situ and satellite data as well as remote sensing (RS) technologies are being applied to regional environmental issues. These issues include the effects of climate change on regional flooding, droughts and the impact of human activities as they relate to feedbacks on the global climate. More specifically, one needs to evaluate the potential impact of climatological variability on social, economic, and human activities. In addition, the study of their effects on agriculture, forests, local natural ecosystems and water climate-related resources, is most important. Finally, dust storms and other natural events such as droughts can have great local impacts. Approximately half of the dust in today's atmosphere may be the result of changes to the environment caused by human activities, including agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation. Climate variability may lead to the occurrence of some severe environmental phenomena like dust storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts. Under normal conditions we can detect different dust effects associated with the movement of storms as well as different rain patterns that do not affect much of the surrounding environment either at regional or global scales. On the other hand, under abnormal climatological conditions, high anomalies of precipitation might occur due to the presence of hurricanes or other events, leading to severe flooding events. In this dissertation, we apply time series analysis techniques to remote sensing and in situ data to detect precipitation and dust storm anomalies and study their behavior on regional scales. The first application is the detection and monitoring of dust storms events over parts of the Middle East and Asia. Dust storms cause health and economic hazards. In this thesis dust storms development is examined based on using remote sensing. It utilizes a combination of optical

  15. Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

  16. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering.

    PubMed

    Ridgwell, Andy; Singarayer, Joy S; Hetherington, Alistair M; Valdes, Paul J

    2009-01-27

    The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming ("geoengineering"), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation. Specifically, we propose a "bio-geoengineering" approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1 degrees C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

  17. Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Thorne, James H.

    2015-01-01

    The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

  18. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Libera