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Sample records for nino southern oscillation

  1. A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.

    1985-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

  2. El Nino: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Diaz, H.F.; Markgraf, V.

    1992-01-01

    This book about El Nino/Southern Oscillation is divided into the following major sections: ENSO in the modern record; the use of historical records in ENSO reconstruction; Paleoclimate reconstructions of ENSO from tree-ring records, ice cores, corals; Low resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction of ENSO from marine and terrestrial proxy indicators. The overall theme of the book is the that improved reliability of individual ENSO indices might be achieved by pooling together as many of the proxy series as feasible.

  3. The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

    2000-01-01

    In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

  4. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keppenne, C.

    1993-01-01

    Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

  5. Ionospheric Effects of Strong El Nino Southern Oscillation Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Immel, T. J.; England, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Nguyen, V.; Lieberman, R. S.; Maute, A. I.; Greer, K.

    2015-12-01

    The current prediction for the occurrence of a very strong positive phase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in late 2015 has implications for weather around the entire planet. Furthermore, recent investigations show that ENSO-related changes in tropospheric water vapor and rainfall drive extraordinary changes in the temperature and wind structure in the middle atmosphere, through the modification of the spectrum of atmospheric tides. Given that several components of the tidal spectrum can propagate into the thermosphere, ENSO-related changes at altitudes above the mesopause and into the ionosphere may be expected. We will show the ionospheric and thermospheric variations expected for El Niño and La Niña conditions. These efforts are enabled in part by modeling capabilities developed for the upcoming NASA Ionospheric Connection Explorer mission.

  6. 40-50 day oscillation and the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation - a new perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Lau, K.M.; Chan, P.H.

    1986-05-01

    The tropical ocean-atmosphere exhibits two prominent modes of low-frequency oscillations, i.e, the 40-50 day oscillation and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two phenomena are viewed in the same perspective from 10 years of satellite-derived out-going-longwave-radiation data. Results reveal some interesting features that may lead to new insights into the understanding of the two phenomena.

  7. El Nino Southern Oscillation and Tuna in the Western Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lehodey, P.; Bertignac, M.; Hampton, J.; Lewis, A.; Picaut, J.

    1997-01-01

    Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans. Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.

  8. Central Pacific Seabirds and the El Nino Southern Oscillation: 1982 to 1983 Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schreiber, Ralph W.; Schreiber, Elizabeth Anne

    1984-08-01

    The breeding chronology and reproductive attempts of the seabird community on Christmas Island in the central Pacific Ocean (2 degrees N, 157 degrees W) were interrupted by the 1982-1983 El Nino Southern Oscillation. The resultant reproductive failure and disappearance of the entire seabird community of this equatorial atoll represents the most dramatic interruption on record of a seabird community located distant from coastal upwelling. Our data indicate the effect that the abiotic and biotic aspects of a global atmospheric-oceanic anomaly have on marine birds. The 1982-1983 El Nino Southern Oscillation provides an example of selective pressures and a natural experiment in the study of vertebrate population dynamics.

  9. Optimizing irrigation strategies as influenced by El Nino southern oscillation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) can cause a systematic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupling with the atmosphere to produce predictable weather patterns in much of North America. Adapting irrigation strategies for drought tolerant crops like cotton [Gossypium hirsu...

  10. El Nino: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Diaz, H.F.; Markgraf, V.

    1992-01-01

    This book, including 22 papers by well-known authorities, presents a balanced picture of the possible types of information that can be bound about the past occurrence of El Nino. Topics presented include the following: oxygen-isotope analyses of ice cores in the Andes; tree-ring growth; trace mineral concentrations in annual layers of coral reefs; Nile River flood records back 13 centuries. The book is accessible to outsiders whose interests require a knowledge of El Nino and its historical manifestations.

  11. Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Tao; Calvo, Natalia; Yue, Jia; Dou, Xiankang; Russell, J. M, III; Mlynczak, M. G.; She, Chiao-Yao; Xue, Xianghui

    2013-01-01

    Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

  12. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Palanisamy Satheesh; Pillai, Gopalakrishna N; Manjusha, Ushadevi

    2014-01-01

    El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of interannual variations in climate and ecosystem productivity in tropical regions. However, detailed information about this important phenomenon of the Indian Ocean is scarce. Consequently, the objective of this study is to improve understanding of the impact of warm event El Nino and cool event La Nina on annual tuna landings from the Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2010. In this study, maximum tuna landings were recorded during a weak El Nino year (1456054 t in 2006) and during a weak La Nina year (1243562 t in 2000), although the lowest tuna catch was followed during the strong El Nino year (1204119 t in 2009) and during a strong La Nina year (706546 t in 1988). Validation of predicted tuna landings and SST were showing a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) was observed all the major tuna species except Southern Bluefin Tuna. Whereas the other relationships such as sea level pressure, Wind actions; Zonal Wind (U), Meridonial Wind (V), and Scalar Wind (W) are less well-defined. In contrast with principal component analysis we find that Principal Components 1 explains 75.5% of the total variance and suggest that sea surface temperature plays a major role in determining tuna availability in the region especially during warm event El Nino years; landings in Indian Ocean tend to be optimum SST 25 to 26°C in ENSO event. Our results confirm the ENSO impact on climate, tuna abundance and production in the Indian Ocean. However, among the oceanic variables SST explained the highest deviance in generalized additive models and therefore considered the best habitat predictor in the Indian Ocean followed by sea level pressure and Winds (U, V, W).

  13. Tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the Pacific cold tongue, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Jin, F.F.

    1996-10-04

    The tropical Pacific basin allows strong feedbacks among the trade winds, equatorial zonal sea surface temperature contrast, and upper ocean heat content. Coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics produce both the strong Pacific cold tongue climate state and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. A simple paradigm of the tropical climate system is presented, capturing the basic physics of these two important aspects of the tropic Pacific and basic features of the climate states of the Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. 21 refs., 3 figs.

  14. El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.; Kitamura, Y. )

    1992-11-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric and oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.

  15. The hydroclimatology of the United States during El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Dracup, J.A.; Piechota, T.C.; Khachikian, C.S.

    1995-12-31

    Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) monthly data are analyzed, building on a previous study that investigated the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on US streamflow. Harmonic analysis is performed using data from 1,035 selected climatological stations, allowing observation of the biennial tendency in climate data. With the middle twelve months defined as the El Nino year (0), an idealized first harmonic fit to a 24-month ENSO composite is computed for each station. By plotting the first harmonic vectors of each station, regions of similar, or coherent, response are identified. The regions identified using PDSI data represent wet conditions in the Gulf of Mexico (Gm1 and GM2) and central (C) US, and dry conditions in the Pacific northwest (PNW) and northeast (NE) US. The PNW region exhibits the strongest interrelationship between ENSO and extreme drought events. Comparing PDSI data results with other hydroclimatic data (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) reveals consistent responses. The most filtered response is seen in the PDSI and streamflow data, and these data are probably the best measure of the overall hydroclimatic response within a region. Results of this study suggest that conditions in the tropical Pacific (e.g., sea surface temperatures) may be excellent precursors of future climate. These conditions may also enhance long range prediction of droughts and floods for certain regions of the US.

  16. Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-01-01

    The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

  17. Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by southern oscillation/El Nino, 1900-1979

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. F.

    1985-01-01

    The southern oscillation/El Nino (ENSO) is the single most prominent interannual signal in global atmospheric/oceanic fluctuations. The following question is addressed: how important is the angular momentum carried by ENSO in exciting the Earth's Chandler wobble? The question is attacked through a statistical analysis of the coherence spectra (correlation as a function of frequency) between two data sets spanning 1900 to 1979-the southern oscillation index (SOI) time series and the excitation function psi (with x-component psi sub x and y-component psi sub y) of the Chandler wobble derived from the homogeneous ILS (International Latitude Service) polar motion data. The coherence power and phase in the Chandler frequency band (approx. 0.79 to 0.89 cpy) are studied. It is found that, during 1900 to 1979 the coherence between SOI and psi sub x is significant well over the 95% confidence threshold whereas that between SOI and psi sub y is practically nil. Quantitatively, the coherence study shows that ENSO provides some 20% of the observed Chandler wobble excitation power. Since earlier investigations have shown that the total atmospheric/oceanic variation can account for the Chandler wobble excitation at about 20% level, the implication is that ENSO maybe an important (interannual) part of the atmospheric/oceanic variation that is responsible for the Chandler wobble excitation during 1900 to 1979.

  18. Use of Data to Improve El Nino Southern Oscillation Simulations and Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perigaud, Claire

    1999-01-01

    Various data over the period 1980-1998 have been used to improve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations and forecasts performed by coupled ocean/atmosphere models. For such a study, oceanic and atmospheric satellite data are necessary. Models assume a baroclinic ocean with a mixed layer coupled to a baroclinic atmosphere to simulate the anomalous fields. The various data have been used to revisit the parameterizations of the subsurface temperature in the mixed layer, atmospheric convection, and friction in the baroclinic ocean. This new model, named Tsub.Conv, simulates 4-year oscillations like the model with the original parameterization, but with anomalous thermocline and wind anomalies that agree a lot better with reality. The atmospheric model still presents some deficiencies in the eastern Pacific and when it is replaced by a statistical atmosphere, the coupled model (Tsub.Astat) performs even better. It is found that the off-equatorial ocean and wind curl anomalies play a crucial role for all these models and that Tsub.Astat simulates an ocean heat content recharge coming from the north prior to a warm event like the ones observed during the 1985-1992 period. The ENSO forecasts over 1980-1998 are considerably improved with Tsub.Astat. One needs to add the simulation of westerly wind bursts to be able to forecast the 1997 event one year in advance. Additional information is contained in the original.

  19. El Nino-southern oscillation: A coupled response to the greenhouse effect?

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, De-Zheng

    1997-11-01

    The purpose of this article to elucidate the link between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and radiative forcing (of which the greenhouse effect is a major part). A unified theory for the tropical Pacific climate is developed by considering the response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere to a changing radiative forcing. The hypothesis is that both the zonal surface sea temperature (SST) gradients and ENSO are a coupled response to the strong radiative heating or the tropical warmth. Owing to ocean-atmosphere interaction, the stronger the radiative heating, the larger the zonal SST gradients. When the SST gradients exceed a critical value, however, the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the cold-tongue region is too strong for the coupled system to hold steady. Consequently, the coupled system enters an oscillatory state. These coupled dynamics are examined in a simple mathematical model whose behavior is consistent with the hypothesis. With a linear temperature profile throughout the depth of subsurface ocean, the model predicts that both the magnitude and period of the oscillation increase with increases in radiative forcing or the greenhouse effect. The increase in the magnitude of the oscillation largely comes from an enhancement of the magnitude of the cold anomalies, while the increase in the period mostly comes from a prolonged duration of the warm events. With a profile in which the lapse rate decreases with depth, the sensitivity is more moderate. The simplicity of the model prevents a quantitative simulation of the sensitivity of ENSO to increases in the greenhouse effect, but qualitatively the model results support the empirical interpretation of the prolonged duration of the 1990-1995 ENSO event. 5 refs., 7 figs.

  20. Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M. ); Brown, Robert A. ); Rosenberg, Norman J. ); Izaurralde, R Cesar C. ); Legler, David; Srinivasan, Ragahvan

    2003-02-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o, La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.

  1. Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Ault, Toby R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

  2. Explosive volcanic eruptions, the El Nino-southern oscillation, and U.S. climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Portman, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    A study was conducted to identify and separate possible signals of volcanic eruptions and of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in U.S. surface climate records. Anomalies of monthly mean surface air temperature and total precipitation taken from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were composited (averaged) over years of major explosive volcanic eruptions, ENSO warm events, and ENSO cold events since the year 1900. It was assumed that volcanic eruptions and ENSO events occur independently of each other. All composite anomalies were assessed for significance with regard to several statistical and physical criteria. The composite ENSO-related anomalies were then subtracted from anomalies of temperature and precipitation associated with the volcanic eruptions. Removal of large magnitude and highly significant anomalies associated with the ENSO warm and cold events is found to facilitate detection of volcanic signals in monthly records of U.S. temperature and precipitation. Volcanic signals are strongly suggested east of the Continental Divide, for example, where positive monthly temperature anomalies exceeding 1{degrees}C occur during the first fall and winter after eruptions. Negative temperature anomalies occur west of the Continental Divide during the first winter and spring after eruptions and in the southern United States during the summer of the first post-eruption calendar year. Positive monthly precipitation anomalies exceeding 15 mm in magnitude are found in the southeastern United States during the first winter and spring after eruptions. Precipitation anomalies that are smaller in magnitude and yet significant, such as positive anomalies in the northwestern United States and negative anomalies in the central and eastern United States, are found during the summer of the first post-eruption calendar year. 62 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. The Past, Present and Future of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevenson, Samantha

    Predicting how the strength and character of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change as the climate warms is crucial for a number of societal impacts, yet there are fundamental limitations to our understanding of ENSO dynamics. The major obstacles are related to sampling length, physical adjustments to climate changes, errors in model physics and uncertainties in forcing projections. This dissertation uses these issues to assess what we currently can and cannot say about future ENSO variability. The temporal extent of modern observations is too short to properly measure natural ENSO variations: averaging together at least 200 years is required to obtain robust ENSO statistics in a stable climate. Using paleoclimate 'proxies' to extend the observational record is another option, but is complicated by the uncertainties involved in translating between model and proxy signals. Coral oxygen isotopes, the most commonly used ENSO proxy, are shown to be governed by nonlinear dynamics: a more accurate 'forward model' for coral delta18O is needed. Even using such a model, at least 4-5 contemporaneous records will be required for accurate ENSO amplitude estimation. Simulations using several IPCC-class general circulation models (GCMs) are used to demonstrate that the adjustment to climate change itself takes place over decadal timescales, meaning that ENSO response is not statistically significant during the 21st century. This implies that current model intercomparison experiments are insufficient to measure the true range of ENSO climate sensitivity. However, significant changes to atmospheric teleconnections may take place within the 21st century: the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), for example, predicts harsher winters in the Southwestern US during La Nina and weaker Australian teleconnections during both El Nino and La Nina. Stabilized CCSM3.5 simulations are then performed, which show that once the climate has equilibrated, the ENSO

  4. El-Nino Southern Oscillation simulated and predicted in SNU coupled GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kang, In-Sik; Kim, Daehyun; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2012-06-01

    The characteristics of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in free integrations using two versions of the Seoul National University (SNU) ocean-atmosphere coupled global climate model (CGCM) are examined. A revised version of the SNU CGCM is developed by incorporating a reduced air-sea coupling interval (from 1 day to 2 h), a parameterization for cumulus momentum transport, a minimum entrainment rate threshold for convective plumes, and a shortened auto-conversion time scale of cloud water to raindrops. With the revised physical processes, lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies associated with the ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are represented with more realism than those in the original version. From too weak, the standard deviation of SST over the eastern Pacific becomes too strong in the revised version due to the enhanced air-sea coupling strength and intraseasonal variability associated with ENSO. From the oceanic side, the stronger stratification and the shallower-than-observed thermocline over the eastern Pacific also contribute to the excessive ENSO. The impacts of the revised physical processes on the seasonal predictability are investigated in two sets of the hindcast experiment performed using the two versions of CGCMs. The prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation coefficients of monthly-mean SSTA shows that the new version has a higher skill over the tropical Pacific regions compared to the old version. The better atmospheric responses to the ENSO-related SSTA in the revised version lead to the basin-wide SSTA maintained and developed in a manner that is closer to observations. The symptom of an excessively strong ENSO of the new version in the free integration is not prominent in the hindcast experiment because the thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific is maintained as initialized over the arc of time of the hindcast (7 months).

  5. A GCM study of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and its relation with the seasonal cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Heng

    The main objectives in this dissertation are to examine the impact of the seasonal cycle on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and to provide a quantitative validation of the mechanisms for the impact proposed by previous studies. Hypothesis-validation studies are performed in the control environment provided by ENSO events simulated with a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Using this approach the simulated seasonal cycle and interannual variability can be separated and artificially modified in view of the aspect selected for examination. The CGCM used in this study is the tropical Pacific version of the UCLA CGCM. An analysis of the energy balance in the tropical Pacific Ocean in simulations by the CGCM and by its OGCM component with forcing based on observational data address the irregularities of ENSO. The results suggest that ENSO irregular features manifested in the evolution of energy components on interannual time scales are due to the impacts of seasonal cycle-ENSO interactions. The impact on ENSO of the seasonal cycle in the upper ocean current system and thermocline structure is tested with uncoupled OGCM by shifting the phase relation between the seasonal and interannual components of the surface forcing. It is found that such a shift can significantly affect the evolution of heat content anomalies in the equatorial eastern basin. The impact is primarily due to changes in the anomalous zonal advection of temperature. The following hypotheses about the impact on ENSO of the atmospheric seasonal cycle are validated in a coupled setup with the CGCM: (1) the seasonal warming of the cold tongue during January-April favors the initial growth of warm events; (2) the northward migration of the convergence zone in the western part of the basin during April-May plays a significant role in the initial growth of warm events; and (3) the southward migration of the convergence zone in the western part of the basin during December-January favors the demise of

  6. El Nino-Southern Oscillation Correlated Aerosol Angstrom Exponent Anomaly Over the Tropical Pacific Discovered in Satellite Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.

    2011-01-01

    El Nino.Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere. ENSO could potentially impact local and global aerosol properties through atmospheric circulation anomalies and teleconnections. By analyzing aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE; often used as a qualitative indicator of aerosol particle size) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Sea ]viewing Wide Field ]of ]view Sensor for the period 2000.2011, we find a strong correlation between the AE data and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) over the tropical Pacific. Over the western tropical Pacific (WTP), AE increases during El Nino events and decreases during La Nina events, while the opposite is true over the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). The difference between AE anomalies in the WTP and ETP has a higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) with the MEI than the individual time series and could be considered another type of ENSO index. As no significant ENSO correlation is found in AOD over the same region, the change in AE (and hence aerosol size) is likely to be associated with aerosol composition changes due to anomalous meteorological conditions induced by the ENSO. Several physical parameters or mechanisms that might be responsible for the correlation are discussed. Preliminary analysis indicates surface wind anomaly might be the major contributor, as it reduces sea ]salt production and aerosol transport during El Nino events. Precipitation and cloud fraction are also found to be correlated with tropical Pacific AE. Possible mechanisms, including wet removal and cloud shielding effects, are considered. Variations in relative humidity, tropospheric ozone concentration, and ocean color during El Nino have been ruled out. Further investigation is needed to fully understand this AE ]ENSO covariability and the underlying physical processes responsible for

  7. Strategic adaptation of nitrogen management for el nino southern oscillation-induced winter wheat system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N ...

  8. Relating El Nino-Southern oscillation climate conditions to irrigation strategies for increased cotton yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The global-scale El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of sea surface temperature that causes monsoonal rain in India also affects precipitation in North America.The ENSO phases and related rain expectations have been used to limit climate uncertainties when producing wheat for grazing and grain. Insi...

  9. Evolution of Oceanic Precipitation Anomalies During El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events of the Last Two Decades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yuan, Jinchun; Miller, Richard

    2001-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) recently released monthly global precipitation data that allowed an analysis of oceanic precipitation anomalies before, during, and after El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the last two decades. During each ENSO event, a major positive precipitation anomaly was observed in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, while a major negative precipitation anomaly was observed in the Western Equatorial Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. These precipitation anomalies co-varied strongly with sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and may therefore be a good indicator of ENSO events. The precipitation anomaly pattern of 1997-98 differs significantly from previous ENSO events and calls certain aspects of current theories on ENSO into question.

  10. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, M.

    2000-04-01

    This paper describes El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability simulated in the second Handley Centre coupled model under control and greenhouse warming scenarios. The model produces a very reasonable simulation of ENSO in the control experiment--reproducing the amplitude, spectral characteristics, and phase locking to the annual cycle that are observed in nature. The mechanism for the model ENSO is shown to be a mixed SST-ocean dynamics mode that can be interpreted in terms of the ocean recharge paradigm of Jin. In experiments with increased levels of greenhouse gases, no statistically significant changes in ENSO are seen until these levels approach four times preindustrial values. In these experiments, the model ENSO has an approximately 20% larger amplitude, a frequency that is approximately double that of the current ENSO (implying more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas), and phase locks to the annual cycle at a different time of year. It is shown that the increase in the vertical gradient of temperature in the thermocline region, associated with the model's response to increased greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increase in the amplitude of ENSO, while the increase in meridional temperature gradients on either side of the equator, again associated with the models response to increasing greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increased frequency of ENSO events.

  11. Stable isotope geochemistry of corals from Costa Rica as proxy indicator of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    SciTech Connect

    Carriquiry, J.D.; Risk, M.J.; Schwarcz, H.P. )

    1994-01-01

    The authors analyzed the [delta][sup 18]O and [delta][sup 13]C time-series contained in coral skeletons collected from Isla de Cano, Costa Rica, that survived the 1982-1983 El Nino warming event. Coral [delta][sup 18]O give a record of thermal histories with a precision of [approximately]0.5[degrees]C. For this locality, the authors have determined that the average [Delta][delta][sub w] effect in the coral skeletons is equivalent to 33% of the skeletal [delta][sup 18]O range. Therefore, if [delta][sub w] effects are not compensated for, the annual skeletal-[delta][sup 18]O range displays a temperature range of 1[degrees]C lower than actual values. The isotopic record of Porites lobata skeletons shows simultaneous depletions in [sup 18]O and [sup 13]C at skeletal levels corresponding to 1983, coincident with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Therefore, the El Nino event is not only recorded as negative [delta][sup 18]O anomalies in the skeleton, suggesting the warming of ambient waters, but also in the [delta][sup 13]C signal as negative anomalies, indicating coral bleaching. Contrary to the predictions of the [open quotes][sup 13]C-insolation model[close quotes] that the annual carbon isotope variation should be attenuated with depth in proportion to the decrease in light-intensity variation with depth, the authors found a clear trend where [Delta][delta][minus][sup 13]C increases with depth. Coral bioenergetics, which depends on both coral physiology and ecology, may adequately explain the unexpected increase in [delta][sup 13]C range with depth, without contradicting the seasonal character of [delta][sup 13]C variability with the solar irradiance cycle. Although some authors have determined the presence of hiatuses in the skeletal record due to severe stress and growth cessation, in this study it has been found that skeletal growth was not seriously diminished during the El Nino year of 1983.

  12. Correlation of interannual length-of-day variation with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1972-1986

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. Fong

    1988-01-01

    Correlation between interannual length-of-day (LOD) changes and an index representation of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period of 1972-1986 was examined in two ways: as the cross-correlation function in the time domain and as the complex coherence spectrum in the frequency domain. The ENSO representation was derived from barometric measurements from the Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, meteorological stations, as the difference of the sea-level pressure between the two locations. The cross correlation between this ENSO representation and LOD variation on the interannual time scale was found to have a maximum value of 0.68 and the LOD phase lag of 2 months, indicating that most of the interannual LOD variation is caused by ENSO, and that the transfer of ENSO's axial angular momentum to the solid earth lags behind the Tahiti-Darwin pressure variation by about 2 months. The corresponding coherence spectrum showed minimum correlation around biennial periods, indicating an influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on LOD variations.

  13. El Nino-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne diseases in Anhui, China.

    PubMed

    Bi, Peng; Parton, Kevin A; Tong, Shilu

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and monthly incidences of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and malaria in Anhui Province, China, over the periods 1971-1992 and 1966-1987, respectively. On the basis of monthly data over a 22-year period, results indicated that there were positive and negative relationships, respectively, between the SOI and monthly incidences of malaria and HFRS. The results suggest that the SOI could be used as an index in the study of the association of climate variability with the transmission of such diseases, particularly over larger areas, such as at a provincial or even state level, where averaging rainfall or temperature data across regions is inappropriate.

  14. Tidal Variability during the Current Peak in the El-Nino Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, G.; Immel, T. J.; England, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Russell, J. M., III

    2015-12-01

    In 2015, a pronounced positive phase in the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is occurring, with the peak value exceeding any events that have ever occurred during the TIMED mission. ENSO modifies the global distribution of heating by water vapor and raincloud formation in the troposphere, and as such it changes the formation of atmospheric tides that drive prominent structures in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Here we present an analysis of the atmospheric tides using TIMED/SABER and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) GNNS GPS data throughout 2002-present. The non-migrating tides (DE3 and DE2), their relation to ENSO and their changes with the evolution of this ENSO event will be presented. We will show the impacts of ENSO seen in both the tidal signatures in atmospheric temperatures and the ionospheric response seen in TECs. A comparison to previous ENSO events that have occurred over the past decade will be presented, to provide context for the observed impact of the current El-Niño peak in 2015.

  15. Zonal and Meridional Mass Redistribution in the Tropical Pacific During El Nino Southern Oscillation Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delcroix, Thierry; Gourdeau, Lionel; Rual, Pierre; Murtugudde, Raghuram

    1997-01-01

    This note aims at documenting the ENSO-related sea level changes for the whole tropical Pacific, and for the 1979-1996 period which covers numerous El Nino and La Nina events. For this purpose, we rely on (a) 0/450 dbar surface dynamic height anomaly (an alias for sea level) derived from XBT and TOGA-TAO measurements during 1979-1996, (b) TOPEX/Poseidon derived sea level anomaly during 1993-1996, and (c) Murtugudde et al. [1996] model sea level output during 1979-1995.

  16. Modeling cotton lint yield response to irrigation management as influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The declining Ogallala Aquifer in the U.S. Southern High Plains motivates producers to optimize water use and yield of crops that can tolerate short-term water stress like cotton [Gossypium hirsutum (L.)]. Measurable and systematic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) drive the El Niño-Southern ...

  17. Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

    2010-01-01

    Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

  18. Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Nino/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Kim, Hyung-Jin; Webster, Peter J; Yim, So-Young; Xiang, Baoqiang

    2013-04-02

    Prediction of monsoon changes in the coming decades is important for infrastructure planning and sustainable economic development. The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing. Hitherto, the causes of the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) are largely unknown because the monsoons over Asia, West Africa, and North America have been studied primarily on a regional basis, which is unable to identify coherent decadal changes and the overriding controls on planetary scales. Here, we show that, during the recent global warming of about 0.4 °C since the late 1970s, a coherent decadal change of precipitation and circulation emerges in the entirety of the NHSM system. Surprisingly, the NHSM as well as the Hadley and Walker circulations have all shown substantial intensification, with a striking increase of NHSM rainfall by 9.5% per degree of global warming. This is unexpected from recent theoretical prediction and model projections of the 21st century. The intensification is primarily attributed to a mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (a leading mode of interannual-to-interdecadal variation of global sea surface temperature) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and further influenced by hemispherical asymmetric global warming. These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long-term internal variability in the complex climate system.

  19. El Nino southern oscillation effects on dryland crop production in the Texas High Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Risk adverse dryland crop management in the US Southern High Plains may stabilize year to year productivity, however in some years the full yield potential is unrealized thereby reducing the overall cropping system productivity. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) systematica...

  20. Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Okonkwo, Churchill; Demoz, Belay; Sakai, Ricardo; Ichoku, Charles; Anarado, Chigozie; Adegoke, Jimmy; Amadou, Angelina; Abdullahi, Sanusu Imran

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

  1. Isotope evidence of paleo - El Nino - Southern Oscillation cycles in loess-paleosol record in the central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.; Chao-li, Liu

    2000-01-01

    The ??13C of soil carbonate in rhizoconcretions collected from a loess-paleosol sequence in the central United States indicates that growing-season C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated by 35% on a 900 ?? 200 yr time scale during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. The pattern appears in phase with advance and retreat of the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, suggesting influence by paleo-El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles. The ??13C of soil organic matter indicates that the annual average C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated only by 18%, with a periodicity of 450 ?? 100 yr, and closely matched the cyclic pattern of loess-paleosol layers. It suggests a periodic enhancement of the penetration of the Gulf of Mexico air over the region during this time.

  2. Interannual variations in wheat rust development in China and the United States in relation to the El Nino/Southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Scherm, H.; Yang, X.B.

    1995-09-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important and best-characterized mechanisms of global climatic variation. Because regional temperature and precipitation patterns are influenced by the ENSO and plant diseases are responsive to these factors, historical disease records may contain an ENSO-related signal. We used cross-spectral analysis to establish coherence and phase relationships between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a measure of the ENSO, and long-term (>40 years) data on wheat stripe rust in five regions of northern China and wheat stem rust in four climatic divisions of the midwestern United States. Monthly SOI values were averaged from March to June and October to March for analysis of the rust data from China and the United States, respectively, based when weather patterns in these regions are influenced by the ENSO. The coherence relationships showed consistent and significant (0.01 {le} P {le} 0.10) cooscillations between the rust and SOI series at temporal scales characteristic of the ENSO. The five stripe rust series were coherent with the SOI series at periodicities of 2.0 to 3.0 and 8.0 to 10.0 years, and three of the four stem rust series were coherent with the SOI series at a periodicity of 6.8 to 8.2 years. The phase relationships showed that, in most cases, the rust and SOI series cooscillated out of phase, suggesting that the associations between them are indirect. In a separate analysis of a shorter (18 years) stripe rust series form the Pacific Northwest of the United States, disease severity was significantly lower during El Nino years (warm phases of the ENSO) than during non-El Nino years (P {le} 0.0222) or during La Nina years (cold phases of the ENSO) (P {le}0.0253). Although no cause-and-effect relationships could be deduced, this analysis identified methods and directions for future research into relationships between climate and disease at extended temporal scales. 34 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. El nino-southern oscillation events recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical quelccaya ice cap, peru.

    PubMed

    Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Arnao, B M

    1984-10-05

    Snow accumulation measured during 1982-1983 on the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru, was 70 percent of the average from 1975 through 1983. Inspection of 19 years (1964 through 1983) of accumulation measured near the summit of Quelccaya reveals a substantial decrease ( approximately 30 percent) in association with the last five El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences in the equatorial Pacific. The ENSO phenomenon is now recognized as a global event arising from large-scale interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. Understanding this extreme event, with the goal of prediction, requires a record of past occurrences. The Quelccaya ice cap, which contains 1500 years of annually accumulated ice layers, may provide a long and detailed record of the most extreme ENSO events.

  4. Prediction and assessment of impacts on Asian river deltas by extreme climate events and their association with El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, W.Y.B. |

    1995-12-31

    Impacts of hydrological consequences of extreme climate events such as major floods and droughts on human systems have long been among the foremost concerns of the Pacific Rim countries. Proxy climate data for the last 500 years collected form the archives of counties in the Yangtze River Delta, China, were analyzed to understand the occurrence of extreme climate events, the pattern of such occurrences and their relationships to global climate changes. There have been 16 regional (delta wide) extreme climate events during the last 500 years (since 1,500 A.D.); all occurred in conjunction with reported El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activities. Large interannual variability in precipitation is found to occur during or immediately following the ENSO events in the Delta. Management of systems increasingly dominated by humans, such as Asian delta regions, should include consideration of major climate variability, cycle periods and the extent of climate changes, as well as the trends associated with human growth and institutional changes.

  5. Meteorological factors and El Nino Southern Oscillation are associated with paediatric varicella infections in Hong Kong, 2004-2010.

    PubMed

    Chan, J Y C; Lin, H L; Tian, L W

    2014-07-01

    Varicella accounts for substantial morbidities and remains a public health issue worldwide, especially in children. Little is known about the effect of meteorological variables on varicella infection risk for children. This study described the epidemiology of paediatric varicella notifications in Hong Kong from 2004 to 2010, and explored the association between paediatric varicella notifications in children aged <18 years and various meteorological factors using a time-stratified case-crossover model, with adjustment of potential confounding factors. The analysis found that daily mean temperature, atmospheric pressure and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were positively associated with paediatric varicella notifications. We found that an interquartile range (IQR) increase in temperature (8·38°C) at lag 1 day, a 9·50 hPa increase in atmospheric pressure for the current day, and a 21·91 unit increase in SOI for the current day may lead to an increase in daily cases of 5·19% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·90-8·58], 5·77% (95% CI 3·01-8·61), and 4·32% (95% CI 2·98-5·68), respectively. An IQR increase in daily relative humidity (by 11·96%) was associated with a decrease in daily paediatric varicella (-2·79%, 95% CI -3·84 to -1·73). These findings suggest that meteorological factors might be important predictors of paediatric varicella infection in Hong Kong.

  6. Tales of volcanoes and El-Nino southern oscillations with the oxygen isotope anomaly of sulfate aerosol.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H

    2013-10-29

    The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth's system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980-2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher (17)O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and (17)O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and (17)O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that (17)O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations.

  7. Delineating the effect of El-Nino Southern Oscillations using oxygen and sulfur isotope anomalies of sulfate aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaheen, R.; Abaunza Quintero, M. M.; Jackson, T.; McCabe, J.; Savarino, J. P.; Thiemens, M. H.

    2013-12-01

    sulfate aerosol to the stratosphere. The new results demonstrate that combined O-triple isotopes and S-quadruple isotopes may help to recognize paleo ENSO events and their impact on the oxidation history of sulfate aerosols. 1. R. Shaheen, M. A., T. Jackson, J. McCabe, J. Savarino, M. H. Thiemens. (2013) A Window to the Paleoclimate- Tales of Volcanoes and El-Ninño Southern Oscillations with the Oxygen Isotope Anomaly of Sulfate Aerosols, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2. Farquhar, J., Savarino, J., Airieau, S., and Thiemens, M. H. (2001) Observation of wavelength-sensitive mass-independent sulfur isotope effects during SO2 photolysis: Implications for the early atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets 106, 32829-32839.

  8. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

    2004-01-01

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Nin??o events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Nin??o-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

  9. Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

    SciTech Connect

    Manty, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer La Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in cyclogenesis.

  10. Drought stress signals in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia (Fagaceae) leaves reflect winter precipitation in southern Florida tied to El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity.

    PubMed

    Wagner-Cremer, Friederike; Donders, Timme H; Visscher, Henk

    2010-05-01

    In the present study, structural xeromorphic features in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia leaves from southern Florida were quantified to reconstruct past precipitation changes in sensitive terrestrial settings. Absolute cell numbers/mm(2), quantified as epidermal cell density (ED) have been analyzed on leaves from herbarium collections as well as the leaves accumulated during the past 125 years in peat deposits. The results reveal a common principal correlation between the measured ED and winter precipitation (November through March, NDJFM: Herbarium r = -0.74; peat profiles FAK98 r = -0.72, FAK02 r = -0.53) providing a measure of seasonal drought stress. In Florida, the amount of winter precipitation depends on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, where El Niño years produce wet and cold winters, while La Niña winters are dry and warm. The negative correlation between cell numbers and winter precipitation has the potential to record precipitation variability from subfossil leaves on near-annual to decadal time scales. In subtropical, terrestrial environments, where traditional paleo-proxies are limited, systematic analysis of leaf morphological characteristics can provide important information on precipitation changes through time.

  11. Theileria parva seroprevalence in traditionally kept cattle in southern Zambia and El Nino.

    PubMed

    Fandamu, P; Duchateau, L; Speybroeck, N; Marcotty, T; Mbao, V; Mtambo, J; Mulumba, M; Berkvens, D

    2005-04-01

    Sero-epidemiological surveys involving 27,526 cattle over a period of 8 years show that Theileria parva, the parasite causing East Coast fever (ECF) is found throughout southern Zambia. Higher values of T. parva sero-prevalence were observed in the plateau districts of Monze, Choma and Mazabuka than in the valley districts of Siavonga and Sinazongwe. Our results reveal a strong association between high T. parva sero-prevalence and the presence of the periodic climatic phenomenon known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. More T. parva sero-positive samples were recorded during El Nino years (1997/98) (P<0.001) than other years in the study period. From this association, we conclude that Multiple El Nino Southern Oscillation Indices can be used to predict years with high or low ECF infection prevalence thereby contributing to the improved control of ECF in the area.

  12. Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie

    2010-01-01

    This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

  13. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records.

    PubMed

    Keefer, David K; Moseley, Michael E

    2004-07-27

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

  14. Outbreak of hantavirus infection in the Four Corners region of the United States in the wake of the 1997-1998 El Nino-southern oscillation.

    PubMed

    Hjelle, B; Glass, G E

    2000-05-01

    Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), a rodent-borne zoonosis, has been endemic in the Americas for at least several decades. It is hypothesized that the 1991-1992 El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) caused increased precipitation that allowed an increase in rodent population densities, thereby increasing the possibility of transmission to humans. The result was a 1993-1994 outbreak of the disease in the Four Corners states of the southwestern United States. A second strong ENSO occurred in 1997-1998, after a period of considerable public education about the risks of hantavirus infection that began during the 1993-1994 outbreak. The caseload of HCPS increased 5-fold above baseline in the Four Corners states in 1998-1999. Regions that had received increased rainfall in 1998 were especially affected. A large majority of the 1998-1999 case patients reported indoor exposure to deer mice. Hantavirus outbreaks can occur in response to abiotic events, even in the face of extensive public education and awareness.

  15. Canadian precipitation patterns associated with the southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Shabbar, A.; Bonsal, B.; Khandekar, M.

    1997-12-01

    Precipitation responses over Canada associated with the two extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO), namely El Nino and La Nina are identified. Using the best available precipitation data from 1911 to 1994, both the spatial and temporal behavior of the responses are analyzed from the El Nino/La Nino onset to several seasons afterward. Composite and correlation analyses indicate that precipitation over a large region of southern Canada extending from British Columbia, through the prairies, and into the Great Lakes region is significantly influenced by the SO phenomenon. The results show a distinct pattern of negative (positive) precipitation anomalies in this region during the first winter following the onset of El Nino (La Nina) events. During this same period, significant positive precipitation anomalies occur over the northern prairies and southeastern Northwest Territories in association with El Nino events. Statistical significance of the responses is tested by the Student`s t-test and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test, while field significance is established through the Monte Carlo procedure. All of the significant precipitation anomalies can be explained by the associated upper-atmospheric flow patterns, which during the first winter following the onset of El Nino events resemble the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. Significant correlations between Southern Oscillation index (SOI) values and the observed precipitation anomalies over southern Canada suggest the possibility of developing a long-range forecasting technique for Canadian precipitation based on the occurrence and evolution of the various phases of the SO. 31 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Global Weather's Problem Child--El Nino.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rasmusson, Eugene M.

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature and effects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Indicates that new understanding of the phenomenon from current data will provide a global view of climate that has never before been within reach. (JN)

  17. Atmospheric moisture transport and its impact on the water cycle over Alaska and Hawaii: The roles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borries, Cecilia J.

    Precipitation over the North Pacific can fluctuate under climate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to better understand the role which these climatic patterns play in the North Pacific water budgets and pathways, we employed the Community Atmosphere Model 5.0 (CAM) and conducted sensitivity experiments to examine how atmospheric moisture convergence and moisture transport respond to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the PDO and ENSO phase transitions. We have found that changes in transient moisture transport, as the PDO phase shifts from cool to warm, are due to increases in specific humidity and decreases in wind speeds over Alaska and the North Pacific. Additionally, increases in moisture convergence, specific humidity, and wind speeds and decreases in transient moisture transport are seen over the North Pacific during El Nino events compared to La Nina events.

  18. El Nino During the 1990's: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  19. El Nino During the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  20. A review of the Southern Oscillation - Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kousky, V. E.; Kagano, M. T.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

    1984-01-01

    The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.

  1. El Nino. [influence on climatic conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.

    1986-01-01

    An attempt is made to provide the background for a coupled model of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) with emphasis placed on the oceanography (i.e. on El Nino). Observations of the normal annual cycle in the Pacific and of the evolution of a typical El Nino event are reviewed, and a theory for the oceanography of El Nino is proposed. The influence of SST anomalies on the tropical atmosphere is assessed, and results from a numerical model for the coupled system able to generate El Nino events are presented. Implications for the real ENSO cycle are discussed. In both the model and nature, ENSO has the character of a relaxation oscillation of the coupled system, and its cycle is aperiodic. Results on the predictability of dynamical systems show the impossibility of predicting ahead several events.

  2. Geomorphic Effects, Chronologies, and Archaeological Significance of El Nino Floods in Southern Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magilligan, F. J.; Manners, R.; Goldstein, P.

    2003-12-01

    The catastrophic effects of large floods have been well documented, on both contemporary and paleo-timecales, especially for the conterminous U.S. Less is known, however, about extreme events in hyper-arid sub-tropical climates where synoptic scale meteorological causes, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, are the driving atmospheric mechanism. This research documents the geomorphic effects of extreme floods in the Moquegua River valley of southern Peru, in the core of the Atacama Desert. Using a combination of geomorphic mapping, hydrolologic modeling, aerial photography, ASTER satellite imagery, and GIS, we document the geomorphic signature of large contemporary floods within the mid-valley section (1500 masl) of the Rio Moquegua. Stratigraphic evidence and paleostage indicators of paleofloods, such as slackwater deposits and preserved high level flood gravels, are used to evidence late Holocene paleoflood magnitude-frequency relationships. On contemporary timescales, channel belt expansion by lateral erosion during large floods, such as the recent '97 and '98 floods, correspond to as much as 30-40 hectares of floodplain loss along the 20 km study reach. Sixty years of repeat aerial photography indicates that channel belt expansion and floodplain erosion commonly occurs along the Rio Moquegua. The frequent resetting of floodplain alluvium conditioned by these large floods is supported by radiocarbon dating of floodplain exposures. These dates indicate that most of the contemporary floodplain alluvium is younger that 560 14C yrs BP. The highest terrace remnants date to 3250 14C yrs BP and record a series of overbank flood gravels. Evidence for the regionally extensive Miraflores ENSO flood, ca. 1300 AD, exists in tributary and along mainstem sections. This flood has been documented along the coasts of Northern Chile to northern Peru, and has been evoked to explain significant social collapse. Our field evidence indicates that it catastrophically affected

  3. Recent variability in the Southern Oscillation: Isotopic results from a Tarawa Atoll coral

    SciTech Connect

    Cole, J.E.; Fairbanks, R.G. ); Shen, G.T. )

    1993-06-18

    In the western tropical Pacific, the interannual migration of the Indonesian Low convective system causes changes in rainfall that dominate the regional signature of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. A 96-year oxygen isotope record from a Tarawa Atoll coral (1[degrees]N, 172[degrees]E) reflects regional convective activity through rainfall-induced salinity changes. This monthly resolution record spans twice the length of the local climatological record and provides a history of ENSO variability comparable in quality with those derived from instrumental climate data. Comparison of this coral record with a historical chronology of El Nino events indicates that climate anomalies in coastal South America are occasionally decoupled from Pacific-wide ENSO extremes. Spectral analysis suggests that the distribution of variance in this record has shifted among annual to interannual periods during the present century, concurrent with observed changes in the strength of the Southern Oscillation. 28 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Determining the early history of El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    DeVries, T.J.; Ortlieb, L.; Diaz, A.

    1997-05-09

    This technical comment presents two analyses of Daniel H. Sandweiss article which reiterates arguments advanced a decade ago that climatic and oceanic changes 5000 years before present (B.P.) resulted in the onset of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events along the coast of Peru. Included is a rebuttal by the original author. 32 refs.

  5. The Modal Evolution of the Southern Oscillation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brassington, Gary B.

    1997-05-01

    The implementation of a progressive Fourier transform, applied to time series representative of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), provides a visual review of the frequency modes that have dominated throughout the available time series record. The modal evolution maps, constructed from the progressive Fourier transform, demonstrate that the ENSO is largely composed of a discrete number of low-frequency modes and that these dominant modes demonstrate a localized influence, in a temporal sense, persisting for periods of years before showing deviations in characteristic frequency. In support of other research, significant energy is maintained in the quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial period modes throughout the length of available Southern Oscillation index (SOI) record. Evident through the most recent record of both the SOI and Nino region sea surface temperature (SST) time series is the emergence of energy in the quasi-decadal period modes. The presence of a quasi-decadal mode has also been noted in the North Pacific over the same period and has been related to the warming SSTs near Alaska. During the period in which the quasi-decadal mode has been present, the most severe and the longest-lasting El Niños on instrument record in 1982-83 and 1991-93, respectively, have occurred. This suggests that the superposition of the quasi-decadal mode with the well-recognized quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial modes can lead to more severe and longer-lasting climate anomalies. Despite the absence of significant energy in the lower-frequency modes in the earlier instrument-recorded SOI, which corresponds to moderate ENSO activity, the existence of such a mode is suggested by an analysis of a paleoclimatic reconstruction of seasonal SOI presented in this paper and other similar analyses found in scientific literature. The last period of very strong ENSO activity occurred during the period 1870-1930. This same period corresponded to the presence of significant energy

  6. On the relation among the solar activity, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and El Nino.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gul, Zhennian

    The possibility of a relation among Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere, sunspot Wolf number and SST's in the eastern Pacific during the same interval are analyzed. The band filter and the wavelet method which are capable of finding local periods and amplitudes are used in the data processing. It is shown that the coherence estimates between the series of QBO in Wolf and in lower tropical stratosphere are of order of -0.6. A possible dynamical explanation for skip a beat of QBO linked El Nino suggested by Angel and Gray is presented. Solar activity is a hypothetical mechanism of this skip.

  7. Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

  8. Can El Nino Amplify the Solar Forcing of Climate?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.

    1999-01-01

    ENSO (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation) is considered as a stochastic driver that excites the atmospheric anomaly states, such as Pacific North American pattern. This can make the 11 year solar activity forcing feasible to climate through stochastic resonance -- a phenomenon that amplifies a weak input to a nonlinear bistable system by the assistance of noise.

  9. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in

  10. Evidence of recent warming and El Nino-related variations in ice breakup of Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, W.L.; Robertson, D.M.; Magnuson, J.J.

    1996-01-01

    Ice breakup dates from 1968 to 1988 were examined for 20 Wisconsin lakes to determine whether consistent interannual and long-term changes exist. Each ice record had a trend toward earlier breakup dates, as demonstrated by a negative slope with time, indicating a recent warming trend. The average change in breakup dates was 0.82 d earlier per year for the lakes in southern Wisconsin, which was more extreme than that for the northern Wisconsin lakes (0.45 d yr-1). Interannual variation in breakup dates was related to the warm phase of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. El Nino events occurred five times during this period (1965, 1972, 1976, 1982, and 1986). Average breakup dates were significantly earlier than average (5-14 d) during the mature phase of El Nino. This variability was affected by the location of the lake: El Nino-related variation was more evident for the southern lakes than the northern lakes. This difference was caused by the average date of breakup for the southern lakes being in late March directly following the period when air temperatures were strongly related to El Nino events, whereas the average dates of breakup of the northern lakes was in mid- to late April following a period when air temperatures were not significantly related to El Nino events. Overall, the interannual and long-term patterns across Wisconsin were relatively consistent, indicating that recent warming and El Nino- related variation are regional climatic responses.

  11. Two Distinct Roles of Atlantic SSTs in ENSO Variability: North Tropical Atlantic SST and Atlantic Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jong-Yeon

    2013-01-01

    Two distinct roles of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST and the Atlantic Nino, on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are investigated using the observational data from 1980 to 2010 and coupled model experiments. It appears that the NTA SST and the Atlantic Nino can be used as two independent predictors for predicting the development of ENSO events in the following season. Furthermore, they are likely to be linked to different types of El Nino events. Specifically, the NTA SST cooling during February, March, and April contributes to the central Pacific warming at the subsequent winter season, while the negative Atlantic Nino event during June, July, and August contributes to enhancing the eastern Pacific warming. The coupled model experiments support these results. With the aid of a lagged inverse relationship, the statistical forecast using two Atlantic indices can successfully predict various ENSO indices.

  12. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Molod, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

  13. Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwalm. C. R.; Williams, C. A.; Schaefer, K.; Baker, I.; Collatz, G. J.; Roedenbeck, C.

    2011-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events

  14. Evolution of the Southern Oscillation as observed by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardanuy, Philip E.; Kyle, H. Lee; Chang, Hyo-Duck

    1987-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 satellite has been in a 955-km, sun-synchronous orbit since October 1978. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment has taken approximately 8 years of high-quality data during this time, of which seven complete years have been archived at the National Space Science Data Center. A final reprocessing of the wide-field-of-view channel dataset is underway. Error analyses indicate a long-term stability of 1 percent better over the length of the data record. As part of the validation of the ERB measurements, the archived 7-year Nimbus-7 ERB dataset is examined for the presence and accuracy of interannual variations including the Southern Oscillation signal. Zonal averages of broadband outgoing longwave radiation indicate a terrestrial response of more than 2 years to the oceanic and atmospheric manifestations of the 1982-83 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, especially in the tropics. This signal is present in monthly and seasonal averages and is shown here to derive primarily from atmospheric responses to adjustments in the Pacific Ocean. The calibration stability of this dataset thus provides a powerful new tool to examine the physics of the ENSO phenomena.

  15. Impact of El Niño-southern oscillation on Indian foodgrain production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selvaraju, R.

    2003-02-01

    The impact of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) on Indian foodgrain production was analysed for the period 1950-99. The inverse relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies from June to August (JJA) over the NINO3 sector of the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian foodgrain production anomalies (r = -0.50) was significant at the 1% level. During the warm ENSO phase, the total foodgrain production frequently decreased (12 out of 13 years) by 1 to 15%. In 10 out of 13 cold ENSO-phase years, the total foodgrain production increased from normal. The relationship between the SST-based NINO3 ENSO index and the Kharif season (June-September) foodgrain production anomalies (r = -0.52) was greater than for the Rabi season (October-February) foodgrain production (r = -0.27). The ENSO impact on rice production was greatest among the individual crops. The average drop in rice (Kharif season crop) production during a warm ENSO-phase year was 3.4 million tonnes (7%). In a cold ENSO-phase year the average production increase was 1.3 million tones (3%). Wheat (Rabi season crop) production was also influenced by ENSO, as it depends on the carryover soil water storage from the Kharif season. Sorghum and chickpea production are not significantly influenced by ENSO extremes. Inter-annual fluctuation of the gross value of Indian foodgrain production was very large, reducing up to US2183 million in a warm ENSO year and increasing up to US1251 million in a cold ENSO year. On average, a warm ENSO year costs US773 million and a cold ENSO year had a financial gain of US437 million from normal. The cumulative probability distributions of foodgrain production anomalies during cold and warm ENSO phases are shifted positively or negatively, relative to the neutral distribution. The warm ENSO forcing significantly (1% level) reduced the probability of above-average production. The cold ENSO forcing moderately increased the above-average foodgrain production over the neutral ENSO

  16. A note on the modulation of Southern Oscillation-Southern Afican rainfall associations with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, S.J.; Lindesay, J.A. )

    1993-05-20

    The authors look at correlations between the southern oscillation and rainfall in South Africa. Since the 1950's there has been a reasonably stable correlation, but there have been times when the correlation seems to have broken down. They look at the question of whether the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation can be involved in this correlation. There is a limited correlation found, but its evidence depends upon the westerly or easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, and only correlates certain seasonal conditions of the southern oscillation, South African rainfall data.

  17. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2011-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  18. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2010-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  19. A Comparison of Crop Yields Using El Nino and Non-El Nino Climatological Data in a Crop Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-01-01

    the changes in the photoperiod ) (Terjung et al., 1984). The program was set for rainfed only (no irrigation), and all runs had adequate fertilization...ENSO events, which in turn could give a very representative climatic base. Other Crops This study only looked at corn; other crops (like wheat ...associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115:1606-1626. Rosenzweig, C. 1989. Climate change and CO2 effects on wheat and corn in the

  20. El Nino.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blueford, Joyce

    1988-01-01

    Information is presented regarding "El Nino," a warm ocean current which has a profound worldwide effect on ocean life and weather patterns. Suggestions are provided for teaching students about the current and other related topics. (CB)

  1. Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitoh, A.; Endo, H.

    2015-12-01

    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.

  2. Decadal Variability of the Tropical Stratosphere: Secondary Influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-02-04

    the tropics was first obtained using Nimbus 4 BUV data [Hasebe, 1983] and the geographic dependence of the variation was first estimated using Nimbus 7...Mg II line at 280 nm based on Nimbus 7 SBUV, NOAA 9 and 11 SBUV/2, and UARS SUSIM data [e.g., Viereck and Puga, 1999]; N3.4 is the Niño 3.4 index...time for producing the cooling response included: (a) the radiative effect of optically thick cirrus clouds associated with enhanced convective activity

  3. An Important Ocean Feature Overlooked in Current El Nino-Southern Oscillation Theories

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-01-01

    t " an ’’’’’’’Me of r; - n . ",hreh 111 ’u’" a,,!p’W:"" (I", OMI, dC<:I"""" g ...almo· sphcric C(> n ,·e ..gcn~~ .11\\d ~o""",,li,," (Tn,weclion /1-) a,c gencrally ." soci .1Ied wilh Ihe 11""’" waler (Gill. 19~0). III Ihc~a’l (0’ Wt., t ...34 il u,uMly i’ i" Ih" 1t0IHes. With rollsi<l..."i"" uf lhi’ fe,.eu",. b(Hh 1>0ŕ"’" a,,ə n " g

  4. Modulation of the Global Wind Resource by the El-Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunturu, U. B.; Yip, C. M. A.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    El-Nino is the most important climate scale oscillation in the tropical atmosphere and earlier studies have shown that it impacts weather in different parts of the world. Since the long-term stability of wind resource is a primary requirement for the reliability of wind power generation, any modulation of the wind resource by the El-Nino constitutes valuable information for efficient harvesting of wind. In this study, we construct the global wind resource as described in Gunturu & Schlosser (2012) and use the method of composites to understand the impact of the El-Nino on the global wind resource. The results show that the impact of the El-Nino is to decrease the wind resource in the central United States, southern Australia and north central Africa. Further, interestingly, the wind resource increases in the Nordic sea and the continental areas around it. The Deccan plateau region of India also has reduced WPD due to the El-Nino as shown by the composites. On the other hand, the central US and southern Australia have increased WPD due to La-Nina and the resource decreases in India. The statistically significant results will be further discussed for their implications to the long term stability of the wind resource in the different regions of the world. We also substantiate the results with other suitable metrics.

  5. Interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, M.; Hastenrath, S.

    1986-01-01

    Years with abundant Southwest monsoon rainfall in India are characterized by anomalously low pressure over South Asia and the adjacent waters, enhanced cross-equatorial flow in the western, and increased cloudiness over the northern portion of the Indian Ocean, continuing from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon season; positive temperature anomalies over land and in the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season, changing to negative departures after the monsoon onset. The following causality chain is suggested: the anomalously warm surfaces of south Asia and the adjacent ocean in the pre-monsoon season induce a thermal low, thus enhancing the northward directed pressure gradient, and favoring a vigorous cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean. After the monsoon onset the land surfaces are cooled by evaporation, and the Arabian Sea surface waters by various wind stress effects. However, latent heat release over South Asia can now maintain the meridional topography gradients essential to the monsoon circulation. The positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (high pressure over the Eastern South Pacific) is associated with circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector similar to those characteristic of years with abundant India monsoon rainfall. Abundant rainfall over India during the northern summer monsoon leads the positive mode of the southern Oscillation, and this in turn leads Java rainfall, whose peak is timed about half a year after that of India. A rising Southern Oscillation tendency presages abundant India Southwest Monsoon rainfall but a late monsoon onset. 46 references, 9 figures, 4 tables.

  6. El Nino and outgoing longwave radiation: An atlas of Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kyle, H. L.; Ardanuy, P. E.; Hucek, R. R.

    1986-01-01

    Five years of broadband Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) measurements taken by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment have been archived. This five year period included the 1982 to 1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event, which reached its peak in January 1983 (near the beginning of the fifth data year). An outgoing longwave radiation subset of the data, for the period June 1980 to October 1983, was processed to enhance spatial resolution. This atlas contains the analyses of the resultant fields. In addition, a set of anomaly maps, based on a definition of pre-El Nino climatology, is included. Together, these two sets of maps provide the first broadband glimpse of the terrestrial outgoing longwave radiation response to the El Nino event.

  7. Effect of geomagnetic and volcanic activity on the El Nino and La Nina phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vovk, V. Ya.; Egorova, L. V.

    2009-04-01

    The monthly values of the southern atmospheric oscillation indices (SOI), the corresponding values of the Nino-3.4 index, the data on the onsets of intense volcanic eruptions from 1870 to 2002, the daily values of the Ap and AE indices and the IMF B z component, and the data on cloudiness and wind characteristics at 14 Antarctic stations have been considered. The beginning of the warm El Nino current is observed after an increase in the amplitude of the Ap magnetic indices, which continues for more than five months. The beginning of the cold period of the La Nina southern atmospheric oscillation is as a rule related to a decrease in Ap. A change in atmospheric transparency caused by volcanic eruptions is often followed by the beginning of the cold period of the southern atmospheric oscillation (ENSO). A change in the wind system in the Antarctic Regions, related to a change in the temperature balance caused by variations in the solar wind parameters in the winter season, promotes a short-term disturbance of the circumpolar vortex and the beginning of the El Nino warm period.

  8. Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David

    1999-01-01

    The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key

  9. United States Streamflow Patterns Associated with the Extreme Phases of the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahya, Ercan

    The potential for long-term streamflow forecasts based on atmospheric circulation indices in the United States has been assessed. The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) have been linked to fairly persistent classes of atmospheric anomalies (e.g., precipitation) over the low and middle latitudes at regional and global sale. This study examines the relationships between the extreme phases of the SO and unimpaired stream discharges over the contiguous U.S. Of particular interest in this investigation is the identification of areas of land that appear to have consistent and strong El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related streamflow signals. The first harmonic extracted from a 24-month ENSO composite at each station is assumed to be the ENSO-related signal appearing stream flow anomalies. The vectorial display of these harmonics over a map of the U.S. provides the areal extents of ENSO influence on streamflows. Similar analysis is performed for the La Nina phase of the SO. Strong and consistent streamflow responses to hypothesized ENSO forcing are found during a detected season in the four core areas: Gulf of Mexico, North East, North Central and Pacific Northwest. The Southwest is found to be another key region for the Type 1 ENSO events. For the La Nina phase, each of these regions exhibit an equally reliable signal and almost same timing with that of ENSO signal. The appearance of both ENSO and La Nina signals is analyzed in conjunction with the annual cycle. Almost reversal in sign of streamflow anomalies during ENSO events compared to these during La Nina events. The significance of relationships between the extremes of the SO and streamflows within each core area are determined by the hypergeometric distribution. A proper season that the SO index can be averaged to obtain a higher correlation value is found for each core area. Moreover, some clues are presented so that ENSO events influence significantly the persistence in streamflow. Finally

  10. The influence of different El Nino types on the northern hemisphere stratosphere simulated by the MPI-ESM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittner, Matthias; Timmreck, Claudia; Schmidt, Hauke

    2013-04-01

    It is known that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although it is mainly a tropospheric phenomenon, has an impact on the polar winter stratosphere [e.g. van Loon and Labitzke, 1987: Camp and Tung, 2007]. This has also been shown in simulations with general circulation models (GCM) [Sassi,et al. 2004, Manzini et al. 2006]. For a couple of years there are discussions about two different "flavors" of the the El Nino, the central Pacific (or Modoki) El Nino and the east Pacific El Nino [e.g. Wang and Weisberg, 2000; Yu and Kao, 2007; Ashok et al. 2007]. An observational study [Graf and Zanchettin, 2012] indicate that the polar vortex is more disturbed during EP El Ninos. Here we to investigate the influence of the equatorial sea surface temperatures on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the northern hemisphere winter season in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land GCM. We use two versions of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology model MPI-ESM, namely MPI-ESM-LR with lower T63 L47 atmosphere and GR15 ocean resolution and the MPI-ESM-MR with the same horizontal resolution in the atmosphere but a higher resolution in the vertical (L95) and in the ocean (TP04). To exclude effects of natural and anthropogenic forcing, we analyze a 1000 year coupled control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentration and constant solar forcing (piControl). For comparison with reananlyis data we also analyze uncoupled atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea surface temperatures from 1979 until 2008 (AMIP). We compare three ways of defining El Nino: the central Pacific (CP), the east Pacific (EP) and the canonical Nino3.4 El Nino. We show to what extent the MPI-ESM is able to simulate these different types of El Nino and how they affect the polar stratosphere. The MPI-ESM model is in both versions capable of producing CP and EP El Ninos. However, the CP El Nino is dominant one in terms of magnitude and the EP El Nino has a relative small impact on global

  11. Spatiotemporal Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation from Geodetic Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.-H.; García-García, D.; Chao, B. F.

    2009-04-01

    The global mean sea level rose at about 2.46 mm/year during 1930 and 2007. Many global change phenomena have been well observed and monitored, such as temperature rise in the polar region and large-scale ice melting, precipitation and ocean salinity changes, wind field and severe weather intensification, etc. The two main causes of the sea level variation (SLV) are thermal expansion and mass changes within oceans resulting from climate shift, but their relative share in the total SLV is still uncertain. We hereby study the SLV around tropical oceans in relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their variability in space-time. We employ the method of C/EOF (Complex/Empirical Orthogonal Function) to analyze various physical parameters in the region and their space-time variability. We find: (1) Using the satellite ocean altimeter data to study SLV in relation to ENSO variations revealed that from 1993 to 2007 the first mode's time series of Complex EOF suggests high correspondence to the SOI and Nino3.4 index; (2) We additionally extracted the spatial propagation with time evolution of ENSO SLV; (3) Time variable gravity (TVG) over the ENSO region obtained from GRACE satellite data suggests weaker mass migration signals than SLV, although larger uncertainty is expected from GRACE over low latitudes; (4) Using the GCM output (such as ECCO, and MERCATOR), e.g. salinity and temperature profiles with reference to the ocean altimeter and GRACE data revealed the characters of steric or mass-induced SLV during the ENSO events. Preliminary results show that both SLV and SST anomaly had a steady increase after the strongest 1997-98 ENSO event, but not present in the steric SLV conducted according to the GCMs, presumably due to the general underestimation in the latter.

  12. El Nino during the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990s has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein, however, appear to mitigate this belief. For example, regarding the frequency and severity of El Nino, the decade of the 1990s is found to compare quite favorably with that of preceding decades. Hence, the 1990s probably should not be regarded as being anomalous. On the other hand, the number of El Nino-related months per decade has sharply increased during the 1990s, as compared to the preceding four decades, hinting of a marginally significant upward trend. Perhaps, this is an indication that the Earth is now experiencing an ongoing global climatic change. Continued vigilance during the new millennium, therefore, is of paramount importance for determining whether or not this "hint" of a global change is real or if it merely reflects a normal fluctuation of climate.

  13. Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoell, Andrew; Barlow, Mathew; Wheeler, Mathew; Funk, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

  14. The Semiannual Oscillation of Southern Ocean Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbert, A.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric Semiannual Oscillation (SAO) is a half-yearly wave in mean sea level air pressure, which exhibits equinoctial maxima between 45°S and 50°S and solstitial maxima between 55°S and 65°s, with a phase reversal occurring at around 60°S. Its existence has been attributed to a phase difference in the annual temperature cycle between mid- and high-latitudes which sets up meridional temperature and pressure gradients that are largest during September and March, enhancing atmospheric baroclinicity and inducing equinoctial maxima in the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies. In this study, we use harmonic analysis of atmospheric and oceanic Southern Ocean datasets to show that this atmospheric SAO induces oceanic counterparts in sea level and circumpolar transport. This aspect of atmosphere-ocean interaction is particularly important, given the capacity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to influence regional climate through the exchange of heat, fresh water and nutrients to each of the major ocean basins. We examine the relative contributions of local and regional semiannual atmospheric fluctuations in explaining the observed sea level response at 20 Southern Ocean and South Atlantic tide gauge stations and find that the oceanic SAO is associated with a modulation of zonal surface wind strength at key latitudes between ~55°S and 65°S. We also explore whether a seasonal inequality in SAO amplitude might facilitate the deduction of the timescales upon which Southern Ocean 'eddy saturation' theory might operate. However, though we find evidence of biannual fluctuations in eddy kinetic energy, regional variations in the phases and amplitudes of these emergent harmonics prevent us from elucidating the possible timescales upon which an eddy response to the atmospheric SAO might arise.

  15. The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

  16. El Nino Continues to Grow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    The latest image from NASA's Jason oceanography satellite, taken during a 10-day collection cycle ending December 2, 2002, shows the Pacific dominated by two significant areas of higher-than-normal sealevel (warmer ocean temperatures). In the central equatorial Pacific, the large area of higher than normal sea surface heights(warmer than normal sea surface temperatures) associated with growing El Nino conditions has recently migrated eastward toward the coast of South America. Meanwhile, the influence of the 20- to 30-year larger than El Nino/La Nina pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation continues to create warm, higher-than-normal sea-surface heights in the north Pacific that are connected in a warm horseshoe pattern with the western and southern Pacific. Sea-surface heights are a measure of how much heat is stored in the ocean below. This heat influences both present weather and future planetary climate events.

    The image shows red areas in the north Pacific and at the equator that are about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal; white areas indicate sea surface heights between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western tropical Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue areas) have developed that are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, while purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red sea surface heights equate to sea surface temperature departures greater than one degree Celsius (two degrees Fahrenheit) and the white sea surface heights are sea surface temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius(three to five degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

    The U.S. portion of the Jason mission is managed by JPL for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. Research on Earth's oceans using Jason and other space-based capabilities is conducted by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise to better understand and protect our

  17. El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade

    PubMed Central

    Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel

    2015-01-01

    The El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable. PMID:26483455

  18. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  19. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and annual malaria incidence in Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Mabaso, Musawenkosi L H; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sharp, Brian; Smith, Thomas

    2007-04-01

    We evaluated the association between annual malaria incidence and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in five countries in Southern Africa from 1988 to 1999. Below normal incidence of malaria synchronised with a negative SOI (El Niño) and above normal incidence with a positive SOI (La Niña), which lead to dry and wet weather conditions, respectively. In most countries there was a positive relationship between SOI and annual malaria incidence, especially where Anopheles arabiensis is a major vector. This mosquito breeds in temporary rain pools and is highly sensitive to fluctuations in weather conditions. South Africa and Swaziland have the most reliable data and showed the strongest associations, but the picture there may also be compounded by the moderating effect of other oscillatory systems in the Indian Ocean. The impact of ENSO also varies over time within countries, depending on existing malaria control efforts and response capacity. There remains a need for quantitative studies that at the same time consider both ENSO-driven climate anomalies and non-ENSO factors influencing epidemic risk potential to assess their relative importance in order to provide an empirical basis for malaria epidemic forecasting models.

  20. Historical effects of El Nino and La Nina events on the seasonal evolution of the montane snowpack in the Columbia and Colorado River Basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Serreze, M.C.; McCabe, G.J.

    2001-01-01

    Snow-water equivalent (SWE) data measured at several hundred montane sites in the western United States are used to examine the historic effects of El Nino and La Nina events on seasonal snowpack evolution in the major subbasins in the Columbia and Colorado River systems. Results are used to predict annual runoff. In the Columbia River Basin, there is a general tendency for decreased SWE during El Nino years and increased SWE in La Nina years. However, the SWE anomalies for El Nino years are much less pronounced. This occurs in part because midlatitude circulation anomalies in El Nino years are located 35?? east of those in La Nina years. This eastward shift is most evident in midwinter, at which time, SWE anomalies associated with El Nino are actually positive in coastal regions of the Columbia River Basin. In the Colorado River Basin, mean anomalies in SWE and annual runoff during El Nino years depict a transition between drier-than-average conditions in the north, and wetter-than-average conditions in the southwest. Associations during La Nina years are generally opposite those in El Nino years. SWE anomalies tend to be more pronounced in spring in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Our predictions of runoff reveal modest skill for scenarios using only historic El Nino and La Nina information. Predictions based on the water stored in the seasonal snowpack are, in almost all cases, much higher than those based on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information alone. However, combining observed midwinter snow conditions with information on seasonal snowpack evolution associated with ENSO improves predictions for basins in which ENSO signals exhibit strong seasonality.

  1. Emergency and institutional crisis in Peru during El Nino 1982-1983.

    PubMed

    Cavledes, C N

    1985-03-01

    From December 1982 through July 1983, Peru was plagued by disastrous consequences of El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. While the northern part of the country was devastated by torrential rains and floods, central Andean Peru endured landslides and flash floods, the southern Altiplano suffered a severe drought. Hazard preparedness was nonexistent, and official disaster relief uncoordinated and slow in coming. Administrative inefficiency magnified the stress upon the populations under disaster conditions. Provisions of disaster training from specialized international organizations is recommended as a preventive measure and as a policy to improve catastrophe-coping abilities in developing nations.

  2. Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation

  3. Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

    2002-03-01

    The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the

  4. Spatio-temporal Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation from Geodetic Satellites and Model Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H. Y.; Li, Y.; Chao, B. F.

    2010-12-01

    The global sea level varies primarily by two causes: thermal expansion and mass transports. They reflect the responses of the oceans to global climatic changes, but their relative share in the total sea-level variation (SLV) as a function of space-time is a very complex phenomenon to be continuously monitored. We examine several geophysical data sets (for SLV, ocean temperature, surface currents, mixed-layer depth), using the method of C/EOF (Complex/Empirical Orthogonal Function) to study the space-time variability and propagation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical oceans. The SLV from satellite altimetry reveals that from 1993 to 2009 the first C/EOF mode’s time series has high correspondence to the SOI and Nino3.4 index, whereas the time variable gravity obtained from the GRACE satellite data indicates weaker mass migration signals than SLV over the ENSO region, although larger uncertainty is expected from GRACE data over low latitudes. Thus we can characterize the steric vs. mass-induced SLV for ENSO. We also examine the in-situ and OGCM output (such as Ishii & Kimoto (2009) and ECCO-2), e.g. salinity and temperature profiles, and identify the depth anomaly of the ocean mixed-layer of the ENSO region and its variability over the past few decades, showing strong ENSO signals but a general underestimation in the OGCMs.

  5. El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Magadzire, Tamuka; Zinke, Jens; Husak, Gregory J.

    2014-01-01

    A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred simultaneously with different global atmospheric circulations. This study examines the atmospheric circulation and precipitation during December–March 1950–2010 over the African Continent south of 15∘S, a region hereafter known as Southern Africa, associated with eight tropical Pacific SST expressions characteristic of El Niño and La Niña events. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate the SST expressions of El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal precipitation forcing over Southern Africa associated with the eight SST expressions was investigated in terms of the horizontal winds, moisture budget and vertical motion. El Niño events, with warm SST across the east and central Pacific Ocean and warmer than average SST over the Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation reductions over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation reductions are forced primarily by large-scale mid-tropospheric subsidence associated with anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere. El Niño events with cooler than average SST over the Indian Ocean are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa associated with lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation and mid-tropospheric ascent. La Niña events, with cool SST anomalies over the central Pacific and warm SST over the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation increases are forced primarily by lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation, resulting in mid-tropospheric ascent and an increased flux of moisture into the region.

  6. The Relationship Between El Nino/La Nina Oscillations and Recent Anomaly Time Series of OLR Determined by CERES and AIRS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena; Loeb, Norman G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLRCLR are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the relationship between global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies to the El Nino index can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions.

  7. Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

    2001-01-01

    The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988

  8. Relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, precipitation, and nitrogen wet deposition rates in the contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nergui, Tsengel; Evans, R. David; Adam, Jennifer C.; Chung, Serena H.

    2016-11-01

    Human activities have significantly increased reactive nitrogen (N) in the environment, leading to adverse effects on various ecosystems. We used 1979-2012 seasonal inorganic N wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and N wet deposition in the contiguous U.S. The correlations between precipitation and inorganic N wet deposition were the strongest and most spatially extensive during winter; up to 62% and 53% of the 2 to 6 year variations of precipitation and N wet deposition rates, respectively, in the Rocky Mountains, along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and near the Great Lakes, can be explained by variation in the NINO3.4 climate index, which was used as a measure of ENSO activity. During El Niño winters, precipitation and N wet deposition rates were higher than normal in the southern U.S., while La Niña events brought higher precipitation and N wet deposition to the Rocky Mountains and Great Lakes regions. Wintertime N wet deposition correlations held through springtime in the Great Lakes and the northeast; however, correlations between NINO3.4 and precipitation were not significant at most sites, suggesting factors besides precipitation amount contributed to the 2 to 6 year variation of N wet deposition in these regions. As the frequency, strength, and types of ENSO change in the future, interannual variability of N wet deposition will be affected, indirectly affecting spatial distribution of dry N deposition and potentially changing the overall spatial patterns of N deposition.

  9. Use of Microgravity to Assess the Effects of El Nino on Ground-Water Storage in Southern Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parker, John T.C.; Pool, Donald R.

    1998-01-01

    The availability of ground water is of extreme importance in areas, such as southern Arizona, where it is the main supply for agricultural, industrial, or domestic purposes. Where ground-water use exceeds recharge, monitoring is critical for managing water supplies. Typically, monitoring has been done by measuring water levels in wells; however, this technique only partially describes ground-water conditions in a basin. A new application of geophysical technology is enabling U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists to measure changes in the amount of water in an aquifer using a network of microgravity stations. This technique enables a direct measurement of ground-water depletion and recharge. In Tucson, Arizona, residents have relied solely upon ground water for most of their needs since the 19th century. Water levels in some wells in the Tucson area have declined more than 200 ft in the past 50 years. Similar drops in water levels have occurred elsewhere in Arizona. In response to the overdrafting of ground water, the State of Arizona passed legislation designed to attain 'safe yield,' which is defined as a balance between ground-water withdrawals and annual recharge of aquifers. To monitor progress in complying with the legislation, ground-water withdrawals are measured and estimated, and annual recharge is estimated. The Tucson Basin and Avra Valley are two ground-water basins that form the Tucson Active Management Area (TAMA), which by State statute must attain 'safe yield' by the year 2025.

  10. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

    2011-01-01

    A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

  11. Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years B.P. onset of El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sandweiss, D.H.; Richardson, J.B. III; Rollins, H.B.

    1996-09-13

    For the tropical west coast of South America, where El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is most pronounced, archaeological and associated paleontological deposits in northern Peru revealed a major climate change at about 5000 years before the present (yr B.P.). The data implied the presence of stable, warm tropical water as far south as 10{degrees}S during the early mid-Holocene (about 8000 to 5000 yr B.P.). These data suggest that ENSO did not occur for some millennia preceding 5000 yr B.P., when global and regional climate was warmer than today. 36 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

  12. Greenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Nino? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Latif, M.; Eckert, C.; Kleeman, R.

    1997-09-01

    The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30{degrees}S-60{degrees}N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. 48 refs., 20 figs.

  13. Sulfate aerosol distributions and cloud variations during El Nino anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Parungo, F. ); Hicks, B. )

    1993-02-20

    The effects of aerosols on cloud characteristics, albedo, rainfall amount, and overall climate changes were investigated by assessing the qualitative associations and quantitative correlations between the relevant variables during El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) perturbations. Both historical records and data from recent field measurements for the Pacific Ocean region were used for the investigation. The results show that ENSO perturbations could change sulfate aerosol production and distribution over the surveyed regions. Strong correlations were observed between condensation nucleus concentrations and sulfate aerosol concentrations, and between cloud amount and albedo. Weak but significant correlations were also observed between condensation nucleus concentrations and cloud amounts, and between sulfate aerosol concentrations and rainfall amounts. Although sulfate aerosols appeared to have a strong impact on cloud microphysics, the present data confirm that cloud dynamics play the pivotal role in control of cloud types and cloud amount in the studied regions. 31 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. Predicting total organic carbon load with El Nino southern oscillation phase using hybrid and fuzzy logic approaches

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    During drinking water treatment chlorine reacts with total organic carbon (TOC) to form disinfection byproducts (DBP), some of which can be carcinogenic. Additional treatment required to remove TOC before chlorination significantly increases treatment cost. There are two main sources of TOC in a wat...

  15. El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on monthly NO 3 load and concentration, stream flow and precipitation in the Little River Watershed, Tifton, Georgia (GA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Feyereisen, G. W.; Lall, U.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Lowrance, R.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryAs climate variability increases, it is becoming increasingly critical to find predictable patterns that can still be identified despite overall uncertainty. The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation is the best known pattern. Its global effects on weather, hydrology, ecology and human health have been well documented. Climate variability manifested through ENSO has strong effects in the southeast United States, seen in precipitation and stream flow data. However, climate variability may also affect water quality in nutrient concentrations and loads, and have impacts on ecosystems, health, and food availability in the southeast. In this research, we establish a teleconnection between ENSO and the Little River Watershed (LRW), GA., as seen in a shared 3-7 year mode of variability for precipitation, stream flow, and nutrient load time series. Univariate wavelet analysis of the NINO 3.4 index of sea surface temperature (SST) and of precipitation, stream flow, NO 3 concentration and load time series from the watershed was used to identify common signals. Shared 3-7 year modes of variability were seen in all variables, most strongly in precipitation, stream flow and nutrient load in strong El Niño years. The significance of shared 3-7 year periodicity over red noise with 95% confidence in SST and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load time series was confirmed through cross-wavelet and wavelet-coherence transforms, in which common high power and co-variance were computed for each set of data. The strongest 3-7 year shared power was seen in SST and stream flow data, while the strongest co-variance was seen in SST and NO 3 load data. The strongest cross-correlation was seen as a positive value between the NINO 3.4 and NO 3 load with a three-month lag. The teleconnection seen in the LRW between the NINO 3.4 index and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load can be utilized in a model to predict monthly nutrient loads based on short-term climate variability

  16. On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1989-01-01

    El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

  17. Middle and high latitude Southern Hemispheric oscillations on the 35-60 day time scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graves, Charles E.; Stanford, John L.

    1989-01-01

    The low-frequency geopotential height fluctuations in the Southern Hemisphere were examined on the basis of one-point correlation maps. Results indicate that the 35-60 day fluctuations in the Southern-Hemisphere geopotential heights exhibit wavetrainlike characteristics. Correlations between a midlatitude reference point and tropical microwave temperature data were found to be weak, suggesting that the midlatitude wavetrain is not strongly coupled to the Madden and Julian (1971) 40-50 day oscillation.

  18. The Southern Oscillation, Hypoxia, and the Eastern Pacific Tuna Fishery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, D.; Kiefer, D.; Lam, C. H.; Harrison, D. P.; Armstrong, E. M.; Hinton, M.; Luo, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Pacific tuna fishery, which is one of the world's major fisheries, covers thousands of square kilometers. The vessels of this fishery are registered in more than 30 nations and largely target bigeye (Thunnus obesus), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and yellowfin (T. albacores) tuna. In both the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module project, which is sponsored by NASA, and the Fishscape project, which is sponsored by NSF, we have attempted to define the habitat of the three species by matching a 50 year time series on fish catch and effort with oceanographic information obtained from satellite imagery and from a global circulation model. The fishery time series, which was provided by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, provided spatial maps of catch and effort at monthly time steps; the satellite imagery of the region consisted of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and height from GHRSST, SEAWiFS, and AVISO products, and the modeled flow field at selected depths was output from ECCO-92 simulations from 1992 to present. All information was integrated and analyzed within the EASy marine geographic information system. This GIS will also provides a home for the Fishscape spatial simulation model of the coupled dynamics of the ocean, fish, fleets, and markets. This model will then be applied to an assessment of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change, technological advances in fleet operations, and increases in fuel costs. We have determined by application of EOF analysis that the ECCO-2 simulation of sea surface height fits well with that of AVISO imagery; thus, if driven properly by predictions of future air-sea exchange, the model should provide good estimates of circulation patterns. We have also found that strong El Nino events lead to strong recruitment of all three species and strong La Nina events lead to weak recruitment. Finally, we have found that the general spatial distribution of the Eastern Pacific fishing grounds

  19. Forecast EL NIÑO–Southern oscillation phases and best irrigation strategies to increase cotton yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures cause a systematic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupling with the atmosphere to produce predictable weather patterns in much of North America. Forecast ENSO phases and associated rainfall frequency and amount were related to modeled dual purpose whe...

  20. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and ...

  1. Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2016-04-01

    Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.

  2. Estimating the coupling between variations in the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhov, I. I.; Smirnov, D. A.

    2015-09-01

    On the basis of monthly mean data obtained over a period of 1870-2013, relations between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been studied using the Granger causality analysis and estimates of long-Term effects. A bidirectional relationship has been revealed in the dynamics of these processes; moreover, over the entire period as a whole, the ENSO influence on the AMO was significantly stronger than the AMO influence on the ENSO. However, a more detailed analysis has revealed the variable character of this relationship: the ENSO influence on the AMO was stronger at the beginning of the period under study, while, in recent years, the reverse influence and its increase have become more significant against the background of a decrease in the ENSO influence on the AMO.

  3. Effect of El-Nino on Southwest Monsoon 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    K. U., Vidhulakshmi; Mrudula, G.

    2016-05-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) of 2015 showed a deficit of 14% in the seasonal rainfall. Many researchers connected this deficit to the El-Nino which developed in late May. In this study an analysis of major ENSO events and its influence on ISMR during the period 1975 till present have been carried out. The behavior of ISMR during the previous El-Nino/La-Nina years has been compared with that of 2015. Preliminary analysis shows the effects of El-Nino on ISMR of 2015 started mainly from July. This is attributed to Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) by many scientists. Analysis of spatial and temporal correlations of SST of various Nino regions with the ISMR and of MJO will also be presented in detail.

  4. Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Min, W.; Read, W. G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with

  5. The southern oscillation and prediction of Der season rainfall in Somalia

    SciTech Connect

    Hutchinson, P. )

    1992-05-01

    Somalia survives in semiarid to and conditions, with annual rainfall totals rarely exceeding 700 mm, which are divided between two seasons. Many areas are arid, with negligible precipitation. Seasonal totals are highly variable. Thus, any seasonal rainfall forecast would be of significant importance to both the agricultural and animal husbandry communities. An investigation was carried out to determine whether there is a relationship between the Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall. No relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation and rainfall during the midyear [open quotes]Gu[close quotes] season, but it is shown that the year-end [open quotes]Der[close quotes] season precipitation is affected by the Southern Oscillation in southern and central areas of Somalia. Three techniques were used: correlation, regression, and simple contingency tables. Correlations between the SOI (Southern Oscillation index) and seasonal rainfall vary from zero up to about -0.8, with higher correlations in the south, both for individual stations and for area-averaged rainfall. Regression provides some predictive capacity, but the [open quotes]explanation[close quotes] of the variation in rainfall is not particularly high. The contingency tables revealed that there were very few occasions of both high SOI and high seasonal rainfall, although there was a wide scatter of seasonal rainfall associated with a low SOI. It is concluded that the SOI would be useful for planners, governments, and agencies as one tool in food/famine early warning but that the relationships are not strong enough for the average farmer to place much reliance on forecasts produced solely using the SOI.

  6. Late Pleistocene oscillations of the Drau Glacier (southern Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnitschar, Christina; Reitner, Jürgen; Draganits, Erich

    2016-04-01

    The Drau Glacier was the largest Pleistocene glacier in the southeastern part of the Alps and significantly shaped the landscape in this region. The study area is located at the termination of the Drau Glacier in the southern part of Austria (Carinthia). The investigation aims to decipher glacial dynamics during the Late Pleistocene glacial advance, stabilisation and final recession of this glacier based on geological/geomorphological mapping, interpretation of airborne laser scan (ALS) topographic data and lithostratigraphic investigations of glacial and periglacial sediments. Special emphasis is laid on the reconstruction of the maximum extent of the glaciation (LGM). Based on previous mapping by Bobek (1959) and Ucik (1996-1998) more details have been gained for the paleogeographic reconstruction based on glacial and non-glacial erosion and accumulation features. These include traces of pre-Upper Pleistocene glaciation, drumlins, terminal moraines and kettle holes. Paleogeographic reconstruction was done with correlation of different outcrops based on lithostratigraphy and ALS topography. Sequences of gravel related to glacial advance covered by till, followed by periglacial sediments allowed detailed reconstruction of the glacial sequence in this area and the complex succession of various extents of the Drau Glacier. References Bobek, Hans. 1959: Der Eisrückgang im östlichen Klagenfurter Becken. In: Mitteilungen der österreichischen geographischen Gesellschaft, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1996: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 141, S. 340, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1997: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 141, S. 325-326, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1998: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 142, S. 333-334, Wien.

  7. On the Cause of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S Variations Associated with El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Cheng, Benny

    2004-01-01

    The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Fu, Qiang; Jin, Fei-Fei; Hu, Yongyun; Zhang, Jiankai; Wang, Wuke; Sun, Cheng; Feng, Juan; Yang, Yun; Ding, Ruiqiang

    2016-12-01

    Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to influence the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate. Recently, Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variations have been found to affect the middle-high latitude tropospheric climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This paper demonstrates that the impact of ASO can extend to the tropics, with the ASO variations leading El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 20 months. Using observations, analysis, and simulations, the connection between ASO and ENSO is established by combining the high-latitude stratosphere to troposphere pathway with the extratropical to tropical climate teleconnection. This shows that the ASO radiative anomalies influence the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the anomalous NPO and induced Victoria Mode anomalies link to the North Pacific circulation that then influences ENSO. Our results imply that incorporating realistic and time-varying ASO into climate system models may help to improve ENSO predictions.

  9. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dysentery in Shandong province, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Wang, Guoyong; Hiller, Janet E

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dysentery transmission, the relationship between monthly dysentery cases in Shandong Province of China and the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a broad index of ENSO, was examined over the period 1991-2003. Spearman correlations and generalized linear models were calculated to detect the association between the SOI and dysentery cases. Data from 1991 to 2001 were used to estimate the parameters, while data from 2002 to 2003 were used to test the forecasting ability of the model. After controlling for seasonality, autocorrelation, and a time-lagged effect, the results indicate that there was a significant negative association between the number of dysentery cases and the SOI, with a lagged effect of 2 months. A one-standard-deviation decrease in the SOI might cause up to 207 more dysentery cases per month in Shandong Province. This is the first report of the impact of the Southern Oscillation on dysentery risk in China, indicating that the SOI may be a useful early indicator of potential dysentery risk in Shandong Province.

  10. Coherent Modes of Global SST and Summer Rainfall over China: An Assessment of the Regional Impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino/ La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Weng, Hengyi

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.

  11. Assessing the persistence of millennial-scale oscillations during the penultimate glacial phase in southern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Graham; Frogley, Mick; Jones, Tim; Leng, Melanie

    2016-04-01

    There is growing evidence that millennial-scale climate oscillations are a pervasive feature of glacial intervals. During the last glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2-4), incursions of cold water into the North Atlantic appeared to coincide with abrupt reductions in southern European tree populations (Tzedakis et al., 2004: Geology 32, 109-112), suggesting down-stream impacts on continental temperature and hydroclimate. Ice-rafting into the North Atlantic during the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) is thought to be less extensive than at times during MIS 2-4, perhaps resulting in more subdued climate oscillations. Published pollen data from Lake Ioannina core I-284 (Epirus, NW Greece) suggest pronounced oscillations in tree population extent during early MIS 6 (185-155 ka), followed by much-reduced tree populations and subdued oscillations throughout late MIS 6 (155-135 ka) (Roucoux et al., 2011: Journal of Quaternary Science 26, 616-626). Previous studies of the diatom and isotope records from the MIS 7/6, 6/5e and 2/1 transitions, and from MIS 5e and 1 in Lake Ioannina core I-284 demonstrate the sensitivity of these proxies to changes in regional climate. Here we apply a combined diatom and stable isotope (carbon and oxygen) approach to evaluate the influence of millennial-scale oscillations on southern Europe hydroclimate during MIS 6. The new isotope data from Lake Ioannina core I-284 demonstrates higher precipitation / evaporation (P/E) ratios between c. 178 and 164 ka, associated with peak insolation during MIS 6e, and episodes of planktonic diatom expansion likely reflecting the interstadials of the 6e complex. Close correspondence between diatom planktonic frequencies, arboreal pollen and regional sea-surface temperatures together provide strong evidence for millennial-scale oscillations in regional precipitation at times during the early‒mid MIS 6. The isotope data suggest overall cooler and drier conditions during the mid-late MIS 6, consistent with

  12. ENSO and disaster: droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events.

    PubMed

    Dilley, M; Heyman, B N

    1995-09-01

    The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts.

  13. Can El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Goswami, B. N.

    2011-10-01

    Prediction of interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is limited by "internal" dynamics, and the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) seems to be at the heart of producing internal IAV of the ISM. If one could find an identifiable way through which these MISOs are modulated by slowly varying "external" forcing, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the uncertainty in the prediction of IAV could be reduced, leading to improvement of seasonal prediction. Such efforts, so far, have been inconclusive. In this study, the modulation of MISOs by ENSO is assessed by using a nonlinear pattern recognition technique known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM technique is efficient in handling the nonlinearity/event-to-event variability of the MISOs and capable of identifying various shades of MISO from large-scale dynamical/thermodynamical indices, without providing information on rainfall. It is shown that particular MISO phases are preferred during ENSO years, that is, the canonical break phase is preferred more in the El Niño years and the typical active phase is preferred during La Niña years. Interestingly, if the SOM clustering is done by removing the ENSO effect on seasonal mean, the preference for the break node remains relatively unchanged; whereas, the preference reduces/vanishes for the active node. The results indicate that the El Niño-break relationship is almost independent of the ENSO-monsoon relationship on seasonal scale whereas the La Niña-active association seems to be interwoven with the seasonal relationship.

  14. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

    2015-10-01

    To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

  15. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

    2015-01-01

    To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

  16. The effect of El Niño - Southern Oscillation events on CO2 and H2O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olchev, Alexander; Ibrom, Andreas; Panferov, Oleg; Gushchina, Darija; Kreilein, Heinrich; Popov, Victor; Propastin, Pavel; June, Tania; Rauf, Abdul; Gravenhorst, Gode; Knohl, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the main components of CO2 and H2O fluxes between the tropical rainforest and the atmosphere was investigated. The fluxes were continuously measured in an old-growth mountainous tropical rainforest in Central Sulawesi in Indonesia (1°39.47'S and 120°10.409'E) using the eddy covariance method for the period from January 2004 to June 2008 (Ibrom et al. 2007). During the period of measurements two episodes of El Niño and one episode of La Niña were observed. All these ENSO episodes had moderate intensity and were of the central Pacific type. To quantify the ENSO impacts on meteorological parameters and fluxes and to distinguish them from effects caused by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) we analyzed the correlation between the deviations of monthly meteorological parameter and flux values from their monthly averages over the entire measuring period and the Nino4 and Nino3.4 indexes. The typical timescale of the full ENSO cycle is estimated to be about 48-52 months (Setoh et al., 1999), whereas the timescale of the main meteorological parameters (global solar radiation (G), precipitation amount (P), air temperature (T)) is characterized by much higher month-to-month variability even after annual trend filtering. In order to filter the high-frequency oscillation in the time series of atmospheric characteristics and monthly Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 (NEE), Gross Primary Production (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (RE) and evapotranspiration (ET) anomalies, the simple centered moving average smoothing procedure was applied. The moving averages of variables were calculated over 7 months (centered value ± 3 months). Statistical analysis included both simple correlation and cross-correlation analysis. Analysis of the temporal variability of CO2 and H2O fluxes showed a high sensitivity of monthly GPP and ET of the mountainous tropical rainforest to ENSO intensity

  17. Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer to Study Typhoon, Tropical Hydrologic Balance and El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1995-01-01

    The high spatial resolution and global coverage of a spaceborne microwave scatterometer make it a power instrument to study phenomena ranging from typhoon to El Nino Southern Oscillation which have regional and short term economic and ecological impacts as well as effects on long term and global climate changes. In this report, the application of scatterometer data, by itself, to study the intensity and the evolution of typhoon is demonstrated. The potential of combining wind vector and precipitable water derived from two spaceborne sensors to study the hydrologic balance in the tropics is discussed. The role of westerly wind bursts as a precursor of anomalous warming in the equatorial Pacific is investigated with coincident data from microwave scatterometer, altimeter and radiometer.

  18. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Moisture in the Atmosphere, February 22, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image shows differences in atmospheric water vapor relative to a normal (average) year in the Earth's upper troposphere about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface. These measurements were made by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument aboard NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This image, obtained on February 22, 1998, shows that high levels of atmospheric water vapor (red) continue to persist above the warm water pool, commonly referred to as El Nino, in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This image also shows high levels of atmospheric moisture above Southern California. The extent of this high moisture area along the equator has slightly decreased since late January, which corresponds to the shrinking volume of the warm water pool on the ocean's surface. During El Nino, the warmer ocean water off the coast of Peru evaporates at a higher rate, and the resulting warm moist air rises, forming tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. These data show a new formation of high levels of moisture off the coast of Japan in an area that is the typical breeding ground for winter storms. Storms produced off the coast of Japan normally migrate eastward toward the western United States. During this El Nino condition, the southern tropical jet stream has shifted northward, bringing additional moisture from the tropics. When these two sources of moisture converge near California, they produce storms with higher-than-normal rainfall.

  19. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2015-11-19

    Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

  20. U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahya, Ercan; Dracup, John A.

    1993-08-01

    The relationship between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and unimpaired streamflow over the contiguous United States is studied. The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation have been linked to fairly persistent classes of atmospheric anomalies over the low and middle latitudes at regional and global scales. Of particular interest in this investigation is the identification of regions of land that appear to have strong and consistent ENSO-related streamflow signals. The first harmonic extracted from a 24-month ENSO composite at each station is assumed to be the ENSO-related signal appearing in streamflow anomalies. These regions were identified by the similarity in phase of the harmonic vectors. The vectorial display of these harmonics over a map of the United States provides the areal extents of ENSO influence on streamflow. Coherent and significant streamflow responses to hypothesized ENSO forcing are found in four regions of the United States: the Gulf of Mexico, the Northeast, the North Central, and the Pacific Northwest. Once an ENSO event sets in, a long-range forecasting utility may be available for these regions. The results of this analysis, which are consistent with previous studies on precipitation and temperature, demonstrate the mid-latitude hydrologic response to the tropical ENSO phenomena.

  1. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C. A.; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2015-11-01

    Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

  2. Human disturbance amplifies Amazonian El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal.

    PubMed

    Bush, Mark B; Correa-Metrio, Alexander; van Woesik, Robert; Shadik, Courtney R; McMichael, Crystal N H

    2017-03-06

    The long-term interaction between human activity and climate is subject to increasing scrutiny. Humans homogenize landscapes through deforestation, agriculture, and burning and thereby might reduce the capacity of landscapes to provide archives of climate change. Alternatively, land-use change might overwhelm natural buffering and amplify latent climate signals, rendering them detectable. Here we examine a sub-annually resolved sedimentary record from Lake Sauce in the western Amazonian lowlands that spans 6900 years. Finely-laminated sediments were deposited from ca. 5000 years ago until the present, and human activity in the watershed was revealed through the presence of charcoal and maize agriculture. The laminations, analyzed for color content and bandwidth, showed distinctive changes that were coupled to more frequent occurrence of fossil maize pollen. As agricultural activity intensified ca. 2200 cal. BP, the 2- to 8-year periodicity characteristic of El Niño-Southern Oscillation became evident in the record. These agricultural activities appeared to have amplified an existing, but subtle climatic signal that was previously absorbed by natural vegetation. When agricultural activity slowed, or land use around Lake Sauce changed at ca. 800 cal. BP, the signal of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity became erratic.

  3. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on tropospheric mercury concentrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slemr, Franz; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A.; Rauthe-Schöch, Armin; Weigelt, Andreas; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Brunke, Ernst-Günther; Martin, Lynwill; Spain, T. Gerard; O'Doherty, Simon

    2016-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the tropospheric concentrations of many trace gases. Here we investigate the ENSO influence on mercury concentrations measured in the upper troposphere during Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrumented Container flights and at ground at Cape Point, South Africa, and Mace Head, Ireland. Mercury concentrations cross-correlate with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a lag of 8 ± 2 months. Highest mercury concentrations are always found at the most negative SOI values, i.e., 8 months after El Niño, and the amplitude of the interannual variations fluctuates between ~5 and 18%. The time lag is similar to that of CO whose interannual variations are driven largely by emissions from biomass burning (BB). The amplitude of the interannual variability of tropospheric mercury concentrations is consistent with the estimated variations in mercury emissions from BB. We thus conclude that BB is a major factor driving the interannual variation of tropospheric mercury concentrations.

  4. Variations in the tropical greenhouse effect during El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Soden, B.J.

    1997-05-01

    Observations of the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation and sea surface temperature are combined to examine the evolution of the tropical greenhouse effect from colder La Nina conditions in early 1985 to warmer El Nino conditions in late 1987. Although comparison of individual months can suggest a decrease in greenhouse trapping from cold to warm conditions, when the entire 4-yr record is considered a distinct increase in tropical-mean greenhouse trapping of {approximately}2 W m{sup -2} is observed in conjunction with a {approximately}0.4 K increase in tropical-mean sea surface temperature. This observed increase compares favorably with GCM simulations of the change in the clear-sky greenhouse effect during El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Superimposed on top of the SST-driven change in greenhouse trapping are dynamically induced changes in tropical moisture apparently associated with a redistribution of SST during ENSO. The GCM simulations also successfully reproduce this feature, providing reassurance in the ability of GCMs to predict both dynamically and thermodynamically driven changes in greenhouse trapping. 25 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  5. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Moisture in the Atmosphere, January and February, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This series of six images shows the evolution of atmospheric water vapor over the Pacific Ocean during the 1998 El Nino condition. Higher than normal ocean water temperatures increase the rate of evaporation, and the resulting warm moist air rises into the atmosphere, altering global weather patterns. Data obtained by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during January and February 1998 show a decrease in the extent of high levels of water vapor (red) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and an increase in water vapor (yellow to red) over the northwestern Pacific off the coast of Japan. This area is a breeding ground for winter storms that move eastward toward North America. During this El Nino condition, the southern tropical jet stream has shifted northward, bringing additional moisture from the tropics. When these two sources of moisture converge near California, they produce storms with higher-than-normal rainfall.

  6. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation.

    PubMed

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-09-08

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO.

  7. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO. PMID:25197254

  8. Climate Variability Drives Plankton Community Composition Changes: the 2010-2011 El Nino to La Nina Transition Around Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Peter A.; Bonham, Pru; Thomson, Paul; Rochester, Wayne; Doblin, Martina A.; Waite, Anya M.; Richardson, Anthony; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    The strong La Nina of 2010-2011 provided an opportunity to investigate the ecological impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on coastal plankton communities using the nine national reference stations around Australia. Based on remote sensing and across the entire Australian region 2011 (La Nina) was only modestly different from 2010 (El Nino) with the average temperature declining 0.2 percent surface chlorophyll a up 3 percent and modelled primary production down 14 percent. Other changes included a poleward shift in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Along the east coast, there was a reduction in salinity, increase in nutrients, Chlorophytes and Prasinophytes (taxa with chlorophyll b, neoxanthin and prasinoxanthin). The southwest region had a rise in the proportion of 19-hexoyloxyfucoxanthin; possibly coccolithophorids in eddies of the Leeuwin Current and along the sub-tropical front. Pennate diatoms increased, Ceratium spp. decreased and Scrippsiella spp. increased in 2011. Zooplankton biomass declined significantly in 2011. There was a reduction in the abundance of Calocalanus pavo and Temora turbinata and increases in Clausocalanus farrani, Oncaea scottodicarloi and Macrosetella gracilis in 2011. The changes in the plankton community during the strong La Nina of 2011 suggest that this climatic oscillation exacerbates the tropicalization of Australia.

  9. An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

  10. Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Ford, Heather L; Ravelo, A Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J

    2015-01-16

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

  11. Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.

    2015-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

  12. Pre-1866 Extensions of the Southern Oscillation Index Using Early Indonesian and Tahitian Meteorological Readings.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Können, G. P.; Jones, P. D.; Kaltofen, M. H.; Allan, R. J.

    1998-09-01

    Pressure data from Indonesia and Tahiti for years before 1866 are used to extend the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) back to 1841, with a gap between 1861 and 1865. Further extension is possible using an index of Jakarta rainday counts back to 1829. Rainday counts correlate (r = 0.60) with average Jakarta pressure for the June-November dry season over the 1876-1944 period. Although low, this correlation is still better than the correlation of tree rings with pressure or SOI. After 1950 the rainday count-pressure relationship alters, and by the 1990s 18% more raindays (an increase of seven per dry season) occur than the pressure would indicate. The dramatic increase in the size and population of Jakarta since 1950 is considered the most likely reason.

  13. Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene.

    PubMed

    Cobb, Kim M; Westphal, Niko; Sayani, Hussein R; Watson, Jordan T; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Cheng, H; Edwards, R L; Charles, Christopher D

    2013-01-04

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.

  14. Teleconnections of the Southern Oscillation in the tropical Atlantic sector in the OSU coupled upper ocean-atomosphere GCM

    SciTech Connect

    Hameed, S.; Meinster, A. ); Sperber, K.R. )

    1993-03-01

    The Oregon State University coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM has been shown to qualitatively simulate the Southern Oscillation. A composite analysis of the warm and cold events simulated in this 23-year integration has been performed. During the low phase of the Southern Oscillation, when warm anomalies occur in the eastern Pacific, the model simulates for the Atlantic region during March-May (1) a deficit of precipitation over the tropical South American continent, (2) Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are in phase with the eastern Pacific anomalies, while those east of the Nordeste region are out of phase, and (3) northeast trade winds are anomalously weak and southwest trade winds are anomalously strong (as inferred from surface current anomalies). The anomalies in the oceanic processes are induced by perturbations in the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic and are coupled to changes in the Walker circulation. During the high phase of the simulated Southern Oscillation, conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are essentially the reverse of the low phase. The model produces a response in the South American region during the opposing phases of the Southern Oscillation that is in general agreement with observations. The interannual variation of Nordeste rainfall is shown to be dominated by a few band-limited frequencies. These frequencies are found in the SST series of those regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans where strong correlations with Nordeste precipitation exist.

  15. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

  16. Climate Regimes, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and Meningococcal Meningitis Epidemics.

    PubMed

    Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele

    2015-01-01

    Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem that kills thousands annually in Africa, Europe, North, and South America. Occurrence is, however, highest during the dry seasons in Sahel Africa. Interannual changes in precipitation correlate with interannual changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while interdecadal changes in precipitation correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The objective of the study was to determine if there is spectral coherence of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa with interannual and interdecadal changes of PDO and ENSO. Time series were fitted to occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa, to indices of precipitation anomalies in the Sahel, and to indices of ENSO and PDO anomalies. Morlet wavelet was used to transform the time series to frequency-time domain. Wavelet spectra and coherence analyses were performed. Occurrence of meningococcal meningitis showed seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes. The magnitude of occurrence was higher during warm climate regime, and strong El Niños. Spectra coherence of interannual and interdecadal changes of ENSO and PDO with occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa were significant at p < 0.0001. Precipitation in Sahel was low during warm climate regimes. Spectra coherence of changes in precipitation in Sahel with ENSO was significant at p < 0.0001. ENSO and PDO are determinants of the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis. Public health management of epidemics of meningococcal meningitis should include forecast models of changes in ENSO to predict periods of low precipitation, which initiate occurrence.

  17. Climate Regimes, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and Meningococcal Meningitis Epidemics

    PubMed Central

    Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele

    2015-01-01

    Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem that kills thousands annually in Africa, Europe, North, and South America. Occurrence is, however, highest during the dry seasons in Sahel Africa. Interannual changes in precipitation correlate with interannual changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while interdecadal changes in precipitation correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The objective of the study was to determine if there is spectral coherence of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa with interannual and interdecadal changes of PDO and ENSO. Time series were fitted to occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa, to indices of precipitation anomalies in the Sahel, and to indices of ENSO and PDO anomalies. Morlet wavelet was used to transform the time series to frequency-time domain. Wavelet spectra and coherence analyses were performed. Occurrence of meningococcal meningitis showed seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes. The magnitude of occurrence was higher during warm climate regime, and strong El Niños. Spectra coherence of interannual and interdecadal changes of ENSO and PDO with occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa were significant at p < 0.0001. Precipitation in Sahel was low during warm climate regimes. Spectra coherence of changes in precipitation in Sahel with ENSO was significant at p < 0.0001. ENSO and PDO are determinants of the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis. Public health management of epidemics of meningococcal meningitis should include forecast models of changes in ENSO to predict periods of low precipitation, which initiate occurrence. PMID:26284234

  18. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global scale flood and drought risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood and drought risk. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability, and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many extreme hazards and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. Whilst ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of either floods or droughts. To address this, we developed new modelling frameworks to assess ENSO's influence on both flood risk and drought risk at the global scale. Flood risk is expressed in terms of annual expected damages and annual affected population. Drought risk is expressed in terms of water shortage and water stress. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on flood hazard and risk, as well as drought risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Significant correlations between ENSO and water scarcity conditions were found for 43% of the global land area, meaning that more than half of the global population is effectively affected by water shortage and stress events under 2010 conditions. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies. Since ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this could imply changes in flood and drought risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions. The flood part of

  19. Extreme cyclone wave climate in the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and projected climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Scott A.; Ramsay, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    This paper describes the first use of a stochastic cyclone model (SCM) to quantify the extreme significant wave height from tropical cyclones across the Southwest Pacific Ocean. The median extreme significant wave heights across the entire SW Pacific Ocean were 7.5, 10 and 11 m for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.1, 0.02 and 0.01 respectively. Maximum significant wave heights in the region were approximately 1.5 times these values for the same AEP. Tables of extreme significant wave heights are provided for selected inhabited locations. The SCM was used to quantify the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme significant wave heights, and also the effects of projected climate change on cyclone intensity and frequency of occurrence. West of the International Dateline in the region of the Vanuatu archipelago, the extreme cyclone wave climate was relatively consistent during all phases of the ENSO cycle, but highest during El Niño. Cyclone formation and propagation eastward of the Dateline are more likely to occur during El Niño conditions, however these cyclones tended to be more intense, particularly during extreme El Niño events, leading to a higher long-term extreme wave climate in the eastern SW Pacific, despite the relatively low cyclone observation rate there. Simulations of climate change cyclone intensity increases of 10-20% of the most intense cyclones (categories 4 and 5) along with 10-20% reduction in number of cyclones indicated little change in extreme significant wave heights for low-occurrence AEPs of 1/20 or less. These changes were much less than induced by present-day ENSO variability, suggesting that future changes in extreme wave climate will be sensitive to climate change influences on the frequency and intensity of ENSO events. These results are significant in the light of indications that the frequency of extreme El Nino events might double in response to greenhouse warming.

  20. Field-aligned currents in Saturn's southern nightside magnetosphere: Subcorotation and planetary period oscillation components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, G. J.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.; Bunce, E. J.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    We investigate magnetic data showing the presence of field-aligned magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling currents on 31 Cassini passes across Saturn's southern postmidnight auroral region. The currents are strongly modulated in magnitude, form, and position by the phase of the southern planetary period oscillations (PPOs). PPO-independent currents are separated from PPO-related currents using the antisymmetry of the latter with respect to PPO phase. PPO-independent downward currents ~1.1 MA per radian of azimuth flow over the polar open field region indicative of significant plasma subcorotation are enhanced in an outer plasma sheet layer of elevated ionospheric conductivity carrying ~0.8 MA rad-1 and close principally in an upward directed current sheet at ~17°-19° ionospheric colatitude carrying ~2.3 MA rad-1 that maps to the outer hot plasma region in Saturn's magnetosphere (equatorial range ~11-16 Saturn radii (RS)) colocated with the UV oval. Subsidiary downward and upward currents ~0.5 MA rad-1 lie at ~19°-20.5° colatitude mapping to the inner hot plasma region, but no comparable currents are detected at larger colatitudes mapping to the cool plasma regime inside ~8 RS. PPO-related currents at ~17.5°-20° colatitude overlap the main upward and subsidiary downward currents and carry comparable rotating upward and downward currents peaking at ~1.7 MA rad-1. The overall current layer colatitude is also modulated with 1° amplitude in the PPO cycle, maximum equatorward adjacent to the peak upward PPO current and maximum poleward adjacent to peak downward PPO current. This phasing requires the current system to be driven from the planetary atmosphere rather than directly from the magnetosphere.

  1. A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS ON COASTAL WATER QUALITY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. (R825197)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  2. The 1997-98 El-Nino Event and Related Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, D. E.; Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W.; Knupp, K.

    1999-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

  3. The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Buechler, D. E.; Knupp, K.; Driscoll, K.; McCaul, E. W.

    1999-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

  4. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pliocene climate and equifinality.

    PubMed

    Bonham, Sarah G; Haywood, Alan M; Lunt, Daniel J; Collins, Mathew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2009-01-13

    It has been suggested that, during the Pliocene (ca 5-1.8Ma), an El Niño state existed as a permanent rather than an intermittent feature; that is, the tropical Pacific Ocean was characterized by a much weaker east-west gradient than today. One line of inquiry used to investigate this idea relates modern El Niño teleconnections to Pliocene proxy data by comparing regional differences in precipitation and surface temperature with climate patterns associated with present-day El Niño events, assuming that agreement between Pliocene data and observations of modern El Niño events supports this interpretation. Here, we examine this assumption by comparing outputs from a suite of Mid-Pliocene climate simulations carried out with the UK Met Office climate model. Regional patterns of climate change associated with changes in model boundary conditions are compared with observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate that many of the proposed 'permanent El Niño' surface temperature and precipitation patterns are observable in Mid-Pliocene climate simulations even when they display variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or when forced with a modern east-west SST gradient. Our experiments highlight the possibility that the same outcome may be achieved through different initial conditions (equifinality); an important consideration for reconstructed patterns of regional Mid-Pliocene climate.

  5. The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America.

    PubMed

    Gagnon, Alexandre S; Smoyer-Tomic, Karen E; Bush, Andrew B G

    2002-05-01

    A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.

  6. Influence of the solar cycle on the Polar-night Jet Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuroda, Yuhji; Deushi, Makoto

    2016-10-01

    The Polar-night Jet Oscillation (PJO) is the dominant mode of stratospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere and persists from midwinter to spring. The influence of the 11 year solar cycle on modulation of the PJO from late winter to spring is examined using observations and three 42 year simulations from a chemistry-climate model. The only variation applied to model boundary conditions was the strength of ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This is set at 2 times larger than observations to enhance the strength of the solar signal. Simulations show a downward propagation of the stratospheric signal into the troposphere from late winter to spring, which tends to be enhanced as UV strength increases. This result is similar to observations but with a 1-2 month lag. The behavior of the PJO with respect to wave-mean flow interactions is examined using a newly developed momentum budget analysis as well as wave energy analysis. We suggest that UV modulation of the interactions between planetary waves and zonal-mean flow in the stratosphere, rather than direct diabatic processes as suggested in a previous study, is the source of solar cycle modulation of the PJO.

  7. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops.

    PubMed

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly E; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-05-15

    The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

  8. El Niño Southern Oscillation and leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia.

    PubMed

    Weinberger, Daniel; Baroux, Noémie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Ko, Albert I; Goarant, Cyrille

    2014-04-01

    Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.

  9. The solar and Southern Oscillation components in the satellite altimetry data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, Daniel; Shaviv, Nir J.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2015-05-01

    With satellite altimetry data accumulating over the past two decades, the mean sea level (MSL) can now be measured to unprecedented accuracy. We search for physical processes which can explain the sea level variations and find that at least 70% of the variance in the annually smoothed detrended altimetry data can be explained as the combined effect of both the solar forcing and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The phase of the solar component can be used to derive the different steric and eustatic contributions. We find that the peak to peak radiative forcing associated with the solar cycle is 1.33 ± 0.34 W/m2, contributing a 4.4 ± 0.8 mm variation. The slow eustatic component (describing, for example, the cryosphere and large bodies of surface water) has a somewhat smaller peak to peak amplitude of 2.4 ± 0.6 mm. Its phase implies that warming the oceans increases the ocean water loss rate. Additional much smaller terms include a steric feedback term and a fast eustatic term. The ENSO contributes a peak to peak variation of 5.5 ± 0.8 mm, predominantly through a direct effect on the MSL and significantly less so indirectly through variations in the radiative forcing.

  10. Evidence for the effect of sunspot activity on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, Qian

    2017-04-01

    The El Niño No. 3 area index (5°S∼ 5°N, 150°W∼ 90°W) and yearly sunspot number (SSN) from 1408 to 1978 are used to investigate the influence of solar activity on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through periodicity analysis, cross wavelet transform (XWT), cross correlation and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analyses. The solar activity period, the Hale period, and the Gleissberg period are determined in the El Niño index time series, but of weak statistical significance. Cross correlation analysis of the index with SSN, and that of its low-frequency components decomposed by EEMD clearly indicate that solar activity may take effect on the ENSO, and such an impact should undergo an accumulation procedure (phase delay). XWT also indicates the existence of the impact. It is found that the index is negatively correlated with SSN when SSN is large during a certain long-term interval, and positively when SSN is small. Strong El Niño is inferred to be taken place in decade(s) to come.

  11. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean W. D.; Galelli, Stefano

    2017-03-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the global climate system, affecting hydrology in many of the world’s river basins. This raises the prospect of ENSO-driven variability in global and regional hydroelectric power generation. Here we study these effects by generating time series of power production for 1593 hydropower dams, which collectively represent more than half of the world’s existing installed hydropower capacity. The time series are generated by forcing a detailed dam model with monthly-resolution, 20th century inflows—the model includes plant specifications, storage dynamics and realistic operating schemes, and runs irrespectively of the dam construction year. More than one third of simulated dams exhibit statistically significant annual energy production anomalies in at least one of the two ENSO phases of El Niño and La Niña. For most dams, the variability of relative anomalies in power production tends to be less than that of the forcing inflows—a consequence of dam design specifications, namely maximum turbine release rate and reservoir storage, which allows inflows to accumulate for power generation in subsequent dry years. Production is affected most prominently in Northwest United States, South America, Central America, the Iberian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and Southeast Australia. When aggregated globally, positive and negative energy production anomalies effectively cancel each other out, resulting in a weak and statistically insignificant net global anomaly for both ENSO phases.

  12. An analysis of high cloud variability: imprints from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, King-Fai; Su, Hui; Mak, Sze-Ning; Chang, Tiffany M.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Norris, Joel R.; Yung, Yuk L.

    2017-01-01

    Using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), we examine how near-global (60°N-60°S) high cloud fraction varies over time in the past three decades. Our focus is on identifying dominant modes of variability and associated spatial patterns, and how they are related to sea surface temperature. By performing the principal component analysis, we find that the first two principal modes of high cloud distribution show strong imprints of the two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the canonical ENSO and the ENSO Modoki. Comparisons between ISCCP data and 14 models from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) show that models simulate the spatial pattern and the temporal variations of high cloud fraction associated with the canonical ENSO very well but the magnitudes of the canonical ENSO vary among the models. Furthermore, the multi-model mean of the second principal mode in the AMIP5 simulations appears to capture the temporal behavior of the second mode but individual AMIP5 models show large discrepancies in capturing observed temporal variations. A new metric, defined by the relative variances of the first two principal components, suggests that most of the AMIP5 models overestimate the second principal mode of high clouds.

  13. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagnon, Alexandre S.; Smoyer-Tomic, Karen E.; Bush, Andrew B.

    2002-05-01

    A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.

  14. El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

  15. Planetary period oscillations in Saturn's magnetosphere: Coalescence and reversal of northern and southern periods in late northern spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provan, G.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Lamy, L.; Bunce, E. J.; Hunt, G. J.; Zarka, P.; Dougherty, M. K.

    2016-10-01

    We investigate planetary period oscillations (PPOs) in Saturn's magnetosphere using Cassini magnetic field and Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR) data over the interval from late 2012 to the end of 2015, beginning 3 years after vernal equinox and ending 1.5 years before northern solstice. Previous studies have shown that the northern and southern PPO periods converged across equinox from southern summer values 10.8 h for the southern system and 10.6 h for the northern system and near coalesced 1 year after equinox, before separating again with the southern period 10.69 h remaining longer than the northern 10.64 h. We show that these conditions ended in mid-2013 when the two periods coalesced at 10.66 h and remained so until mid-2014, increasing together to longer periods 10.70 h. During coalescence the two systems were locked near magnetic antiphase with SKR modulations in phase, a condition in which the effects of the generating rotating twin vortex flows in the two ionospheres reinforce each other via hemisphere-to-hemisphere coupling. The magnetic-SKR relative phasing indicates the dominance of postdawn SKR sources in both hemispheres, as was generally the case during the study interval. In mid-2014 the two periods separated again, the northern increasing to 10.78 h by the end of 2015, similar to the southern period during southern summer, while the southern period remained fixed near 10.70 h, well above the northern period during southern summer. Despite this difference, this behavior resulted in the first enduring reversal of the two periods, northern longer than southern, during the Cassini era.

  16. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

  17. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world.

    PubMed

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C; Winsemius, Hessel C

    2014-11-04

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO's influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions.

  18. Simple stochastic dynamical models capturing the statistical diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Nan; Majda, Andrew J

    2017-02-14

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. A simple modeling framework is developed here that automatically captures the statistical diversity of ENSO. First, a stochastic parameterization of the wind bursts including both westerly and easterly winds is coupled to a simple ocean-atmosphere model that is otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. Second, a simple nonlinear zonal advection with no ad hoc parameterization of the background sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and a mean easterly trade wind anomaly representing the multidecadal acceleration of the trade wind are both incorporated into the coupled model that enables anomalous warm SST in the central Pacific. Then a three-state stochastic Markov jump process is used to drive the wind burst activity that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool in a simple and effective fashion. It allows the coupled model to simulate the quasi-regular moderate traditional El Niño, the super El Niño, and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño as well as the La Niña with realistic features. In addition to the anomalous SST, the Walker circulation anomalies at different ENSO phases all resemble those in nature. In particular, the coupled model succeeds in reproducing the observed episode during the 1990s, where a series of 5-y CP El Niños is followed by a super El Niño and then a La Niña. Importantly, both the variance and the non-Gaussian statistical features in different Niño regions spanning from the western to the eastern Pacific are captured by the coupled model.

  19. Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabriel, C. J.; Robock, A.

    2015-10-01

    To examine the impact of proposed stratospheric geoengineering schemes on the amplitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations we examine climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G1-G4 experiments. Here we compare tropical Pacific behavior under anthropogenic global warming (AGW) using several scenarios: an instantaneous quadrupling of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration, a 1 % annual increase in CO2 concentration, and the representative concentration pathway resulting in 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing at the end of the 21st century, the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, with that under G1-G4 and under historical model simulations. Climate models under AGW project relatively uniform warming across the tropical Pacific over the next several decades. We find no statistically significant change in ENSO frequency or amplitude under stratospheric geoengineering as compared with those that would occur under ongoing AGW, although the relative brevity of the G1-G4 simulations may have limited detectability of such changes. We also find that the amplitude and frequency of ENSO events do not vary significantly under either AGW scenarios or G1-G4 from the variability found within historical simulations or observations going back to the mid-19th century. Finally, while warming of the Niño3.4 region in the tropical Pacific is fully offset in G1 and G2 during the 40-year simulations, the region continues to warm significantly in G3 and G4, which both start from a present-day climate.

  20. Simple stochastic dynamical models capturing the statistical diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Nan; Majda, Andrew J.

    2017-01-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. A simple modeling framework is developed here that automatically captures the statistical diversity of ENSO. First, a stochastic parameterization of the wind bursts including both westerly and easterly winds is coupled to a simple ocean–atmosphere model that is otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. Second, a simple nonlinear zonal advection with no ad hoc parameterization of the background sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and a mean easterly trade wind anomaly representing the multidecadal acceleration of the trade wind are both incorporated into the coupled model that enables anomalous warm SST in the central Pacific. Then a three-state stochastic Markov jump process is used to drive the wind burst activity that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool in a simple and effective fashion. It allows the coupled model to simulate the quasi-regular moderate traditional El Niño, the super El Niño, and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño as well as the La Niña with realistic features. In addition to the anomalous SST, the Walker circulation anomalies at different ENSO phases all resemble those in nature. In particular, the coupled model succeeds in reproducing the observed episode during the 1990s, where a series of 5-y CP El Niños is followed by a super El Niño and then a La Niña. Importantly, both the variance and the non-Gaussian statistical features in different Niño regions spanning from the western to the eastern Pacific are captured by the coupled model. PMID:28137886

  1. El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James W.; Jones, James W.; Kiker, Clyde F.; Hodges, Alan W.

    1999-01-01

    Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.

  2. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.

  3. Response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Haifeng; Joseph, Renu; Zeng, Ning

    2008-09-01

    Land plays a dominant role in the interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. The canonical warming and drying of the terrestrial tropics observed during El Niño events calls for the study of the role of precipitation and temperature on carbon cycle variability. Here we use a dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon model vegetation-global-atmosphere-soil (VEGAS) to investigate the response of terrestrial carbon cycle to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period 1980-2004. The simulated global total land-atmosphere flux (Fta) by VEGAS agrees well with the atmospheric CO2 inversion modelling results on ENSO timescales and is dominated by the tropics. Analysis of composites of terrestrial responses and climate factors during ENSO events and lead-lag correlations have identified that in the tropics, anomalous precipitation lags ENSO by 1 month and temperature by 5-6 months, while simulated soil moisture lags by 5 months. Warmer and drier conditions there cause suppression of Net Primary Production (NPP) and enhancement of Heteotrophic Respiration (Rh) simultaneously, resulting in the lagging of tropical Fta by 6 months. Sensitivity simulations reveal that 2/3 of Fta change comes from NPP and 1/3 from Rh. In VEGAS, fire burning accounts for about 25% of total Fta anomalies. Precipitation during ENSO events contributes 56% of variation of Fta; temperature accounts for 44%, which includes 25% from the enhancement of Rh and 7% from the increase of the vegetation respiration. We identify the remaining 12% variation of Fta to be from an indirect effect of temperature through its effect on soil wetness, which in turn affects NPP. Such insight into the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors highlights the critical role of soil moisture in ecosystem and carbon cycle-a poorly constrained factor.

  4. Precipitation Producing Synoptic-Scale Flow and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoma, B. M.

    2014-12-01

    The differences in winter synoptic-scale flow during precipitation events between phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are established for the coastal southwest United States. Principal component analysis in T-mode with Varimax rotation was performed on fields of 500-hPa, 700-hPa, and 850-hPa geopotential height and specific humidity (from the North American Regional Reanalysis) during days with precipitation. These precipitation days were grouped through a k-means cluster analysis of the loadings on the extracted components from all atmospheric variables. Eight clusters were ultimately analyzed based on separation and cohesion statistics. Analyses of cluster membership and cluster composite maps reveal synoptic-scale patterns that are most common during particular phases of ENSO. Distinctly El Niño patterns are charactized by a broad offshore upper level trough with relatively moist low-level onshore flow. Distinctly La Niña patterns display a deep southwest-northeast oriented trough over the western United States with drier low-level onshore flow. Analysis of 250-hPa potential vorticity suggests that the La Niña (El Niño) patterns are linked to anticyclonic (cyclonic) baroclinic wave breaking events. This agrees with a recent line of investigations which find anticyclonic (cyclonic) wave breaking in the Pacific North American region to be more common during La Niña (El Niño) events. Knowledge of interannual variability in winter precipitation event characteristics can improve seasonal runoff forecasts and advance understanding of interdecadal variability and the effects of climate change in the western United States.

  5. Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

    2013-01-01

    Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

  6. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  7. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-11-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO's influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions.

  8. Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.

    2014-01-01

    Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water - a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958-2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

  9. El Niño Southern Oscillation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rustic, G. T.; Koutavas, A.; Linsley, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The dynamic response of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to varying solar and volcanic forcing is thought to be an important influence on climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), but proxy evidence of ENSO variability during the MCA is sparse. Insight into past oceanographic variability can be provided through the analysis of δ18O from individual foraminifera found in deep-sea sediments. This approach is applied here to a high-resolution (>10cm/ky) multi-core from the Eastern Tropical Pacific (MC42) near the Galapagos Islands (01° 15.58'S, 89° 41.13'W, 615m depth). At this location, sea surface variability is strongly influenced by ENSO and the seasonal cycle. δ18O from individual mixed-layer dwelling Globigerinoides ruber was analyzed at multiple time intervals throughout the instrumental era and the MCA (900-1350CE). δ18O from instrumental-era samples captured the variability and full range of oceanographic conditions predicted by δ18O calculated from sea surface temperature and salinity reanalysis data, including peak El Niño and La Niña conditions. δ18O from individual foraminifera from MCA samples display variability reductions from 27% to 33% compared to late twentieth century values, as well as reduced range and fewer δ18O outliers, suggesting weaker ENSO activity. This reduction in variability is accompanied by an increase in mean δ18O and is consistent with existing paleoclimate reconstructions and the modeled response of the tropical Pacific to increased solar forcing during the MCA. Additional data other pre-instrumental time intervals will be presented to characterize ENSO dynamics during the past millennium.

  10. Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Tong

    1999-01-01

    As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

  11. Investigations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and oscillations over sub-tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Jethva, Chintan; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Bencherif, Hassan

    2016-08-01

    The temperature retrieved from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during January 2002 to September 2015 are used in this study to delineate the differences of middle atmospheric thermal structure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Two stations namely Mt. Abu (24.59°N, 72.70°E) in NH and Reunion Island (21.11°S, 55.53°E) in SH are chosen over sub-tropical regions. Temperature climatology from SABER observations suggests that stratopause is warmer, and upper mesosphere is cooler in NH as compared to SH. Three atmospheric models are used to understand the monthly thermal structure differences for different altitudes. Moreover, semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are studied using Lomb Scargle Periodogram and Wavelet transform techniques. Over NH, summer and winter season are warmer (~4 K) and cooler (~3 K) respectively in stratosphere as compared to SH. It is important to note here that Mt. Abu temperature is warmer (~9 K) than Reunion Island in winter but in summer season Mt. Abu temperature is cooler in upper mesosphere and above mesosphere NH shows warming. Results show that annual oscillations are dominated in both hemisphere as compared to semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations. In upper mesosphere, strength of annual oscillations is substantial in NH, while semi-annual oscillations are stronger in SH. Wavelet analyses found that annual oscillations are significant in NH near mesopause, while semi-annual oscillations are strengthening in SH.

  12. El Nino's Family Tree (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philander, S. G.

    2013-12-01

    Fluctuations in tropical Pacific rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns involve different processes on different timescales, but nonetheless have certain features (traits) in common so that all can be viewed as members of the same family. Best-known are the children El Niño and La Niña who, in their performance of the Southern Oscillation, move warm surface waters adiabatically back and forth across the Pacific. They and their nephews and nieces in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean all depend on favorable background conditions, especially a suitable depth for the thermocline whose tilt they oscillate to produce SST changes. The parents El Padre and La Madre are in control of that depth and invoke diabatic processes to change it gradually over the course of decades, at times making it so deep that El Niño becomes permanent. This is the spontaneous, natural branch of the family. Another branch responds to external forcing (externally imposed variations in sunlight) and has as members the cycles of the seasons, of obliquity, and of the precession of the equinoxes. These cousins, aunts and uncles of El Niño are protagonists in the drama of the recurrent Ice Ages.

  13. Extended-range forecast of spring rainfall in southern China based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenkai; Hsu, Pang-chi; He, Jinhai; Zhu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Wenjun

    2016-06-01

    Spring (March-May) rainfall after a dry period in winter has a substantial impact on agriculture and water management in populous southern China. The occurrence of low-frequency spring rainfall anomalies has been linked with the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) through its modulation of large-scale circulation and moisture supply over southern China. Using the spatial and temporal information of the MJO as a predictor, an empirical model for extended-range forecasting of spring rainfall in southern China was constructed. We first obtained the coupled patterns between the preceding MJO evolutions (real-time multivariate MJO index) and the succeeding rainfall variability in southern China based on singular value decomposition analysis. Then, a prediction was carried out by projecting the predictor onto the spatiotemporal coupled patterns. Useful skill, in terms of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) between the predicted and observed rainfall over southern China, persisted up to a forecast lead-time of six pentads. The forecast amplitude bias in terms of root-mean-square error was around 1.0 standard deviation. Also, the forecast skill was highly dependent on the strength of the MJO signal. During active MJO periods, the TCC skill was around twofold larger than that during weak MJO periods. The current statistical model shows encouraging ability, but additional work is required to improve its forecasting skill.

  14. El Nino winners and losers declared

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1991-03-08

    Last spring human forecasters thought they saw signs of an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, a classic El Nino, that could wreak havoc with weather around the globe. Researchers running computer models, on the other hand, saw a slight warming but not enough for an El Nino. The modelers were right. The season for El Ninos has ended and nothing happened. Since the models came online about 5 years ago, there have been two contests to predict El Ninos, which occur every 3 to 7 years, and the models have won both. The models are still experimental, but the general feeling is that they're indicating the right trends. The prospect of having reliable El Nino prediction models is good news beyond the small coterie of tropical Pacific specialists. Worldwide weather patterns are closely tied to El Nino cycles.

  15. El Niño Southern Oscillation Influences River Bank Erosion on the Lower Mekong River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, S. E.; Trieu, H. Q.; Carling, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    . However, both simulated time series exhibit quasi-periodic oscillations about these means. The Mekong’s flow regime is controlled by variations in meltwater regime, the intensity of the SE Asian monsoon, and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones that penetrate inland from the South China Sea. Since melt contributes only to (non-erosive) base flows, variability in glacier and snow melt contributions from Himalayan source areas are unlikely to significantly impact inter-annual variations in river bank erosion. However, inter-annual variability in the SE Asian monsoon and tropical cyclone dynamics may both be related, albeit in a complex manner, to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analyses indicate statistically significant (at 95% limit) coherence between ENSO and simulated river bank erosion, but at both sites only since about 1980. During this recent period the ENSO and fluvial erosion time series are in anti-phase; that is ENSO cold phases are associated with enhanced rates of river bank erosion. This is as expected, since ENSO cold phases are associated with earlier onset and enhanced intensity of the monsoon, while the number of intense tropical storm systems making landfall over Vietnam and moving across the Lower Mekong Basin is also higher.

  16. El Nino-like events during Miocene

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.; Oeth, P.A.; Swanson, R.J.

    1988-03-01

    El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in the laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.

  17. Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Niño Southern Oscillation case study.

    PubMed

    Putt, Debbie; Haines, Keith; Gurney, Robert; Liu, Chunlei

    2009-03-13

    The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

  18. The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillation on the summer rainfall increase over southern China around 1992/1993

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jiabao; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Lin, Ailan

    2016-10-01

    A pronounced summer rainfall increase over southern China occurred around 1992/1993. In the present study, the impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on this decadal increase is investigated through diagnostic analysis. It is found that the BSISO-induced rainfall increase accounts for approximately 17.4% of the observed decadal rainfall increase, with a primary part coming from changes in the rainfall pattern associated with phases 3-5 of the BSISO. A further analysis reveals that changes in rainfall pattern over southern China are mainly ascribed to changes in spatial structure of anomalous convection associated with interdecadal change in BSISO tracks. Apart from significant influence of changes in BSISO tracks, changes in the frequency of individual active BSISO phases also have considerable influence on the interdecadal change in summer rainfall over southern China. Based on our analysis, the increase in absolute and relative frequency of occurrence of phases 1 and 8, coupled with their corresponding rainfall pattern, makes a positive contribution to the increase in southern China summer rainfall. The interdecadal change in the BSISO tracks and the frequency of active BSISO phases is likely related to coherent changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific.

  19. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry-wet changes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-10-17

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase.

  20. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Global Land Dry–Wet Changes

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-01-01

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry–wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry–wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry–wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry–wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase. PMID:25323549

  1. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Ottersen, Geir; Hurrell, James W; Mysterud, Atle; Lima, Mauricio; Chan, Kung-Sik; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Adlandsvik, Bjørn

    2003-01-01

    Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet. PMID:14561270

  2. Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delcroix, Thierry; Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Masia, F.; Menkes, C.

    1994-01-01

    Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western

  3. Atmosphere-ocean interactions at strong couplings in a simple model of El Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navarra, Antonio; Tribbia, Joe; Conti, Giovanni

    2014-05-01

    The understanding of the dynamics of the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon in the tropical Pacific has been the subject of an impressive number of works in the last 20 years. The delayed oscillator theory provides an interpretative framework that has allowed enormous advances in our understanding. Much evidence that stochastic forcing does play a role in the dynamics of ENSO has been discussed and it is possible to shape a theory of El Nino as a stochastically forced linear system. However it is still uncertain if El Nino is a self-sustained nonlinear oscillatory system, a chaotic system or a stochastically forced linear system. We propose in this paper that it is possible to have realistic El Nino probability distributions assuming that the system is a nonlinear stochastically forced system. In this paper a simple system is proposed that retains the main characteristics of the El Nino - La Nina variations, like the skewness and the autocorrelation, and we also show how solutions for the probability distribution can be obtained using a Fokker-Planck equation.

  4. The 1982-1983 El Nino Atlas: Nimbus-7 microwave radiometer data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1987-01-01

    Monthly maps of sea surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and surface level wind speed as measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite for the tropical Pacific from June 1982 to October 1983, during one of the most intense El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) episodes, are presented. The non-ENSO annual cycle was compiled by averaging the 1980 and 1981 data for each calendar month and was removed from monthly fields of 1982 and 1983 to reveal the anomalous distributions. The anomaly fields and part of the non-ENSO annual cycle are also presented. This study and earlier evaluations demonstrate that the Nimbus/SMMR can be used to monitor large scale and low frequency variabilities in the tropical ocean. The SMMR data support and extend conventional measurements. The variabilities of the three parameters are found to represent various aspects of ENSO related through ocean atmosphere interaction. Their simultaneous and quantitative descriptions pave the way for the derivation of ocean atmosphere latent heat exchange and further the understanding of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamics.

  5. Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Nino on Pleiades visibility

    PubMed

    Orlove; Chiang; Cane

    2000-01-06

    Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Nino variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June-caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds-is indicative of an El Nino year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Nino variability.

  6. Amplitude-dependent relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in austral summer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Baek-Min; Choi, Hyesun; Kim, Seong-Joong; Choi, Wookap

    2017-02-01

    Co-variability between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the austral summer is examined, and it is found that there exists an apparent co-variability of a negative (positive) SAM during the mature period of El Niño (La Niña). However, this co-variability is largely controlled by the small number of strong ENSO cases. When strong ENSO cases are excluded, the correlation becomes non-significant. This behavior in the relationship between SAM and ENSO is supported by a series of general circulation model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature boundary conditions that represent the incremental strengthening of El Niño (La Niña) conditions. The modeled Antarctic sub-polar jet exhibits similar behavior to that identified through observational analysis. Marked changes in both the magnitude and position of the sub-polar jet are largely controlled by particularly strong transient eddy forcing. Planetary wave forcing plays only a minor role in the co-variability, but it can explain in part the asymmetric response of the sub-polar jet between El Niño and La Niña.

  7. Relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and nitrogen concentrations in a Western Mediterranean river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigro, J.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Giralt, S.; Brunet, M.

    2010-05-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominating mode of interannual climate variability at global scale (Brönnimann, 2007). ENSO extreme negative and positive phases can significantly influence on climatic conditions in Europe, affecting precipitation mainly in spring and autumn (Mariotti et al., 2002; Moron and Ward 1998), but also during winter (Brönnimann et al., 2007; Pozo-Vázquez et al., 2005). Over the Iberian Peninsula (IP), ENSO teleconnections can modulate the frequency and intensity of precipitation (Brunet and López, 1991; Rodó et al., 1997; Rodríguez-Puebla et al., 1998), with a time-lag between the ENSO and its effect on precipitation ranging from 3 to 21 months (Rodó et al., 1997). Large areas of the IP are also affected by severe droughts during the final months of La Niña years and the initial months of the following year, while other areas are affected by dry conditions during the first months of El Niño years, as well as during the summers and autumns of the following year (Muñoz-Diaz and Rodrigo, 2005; Vicente-Serrano, 2005). Here we explore the possibility that nitrate concentration in the Llobregat River (North-eastern Spain) is influenced by ENSO events, which are modulating precipitation variability over the Western Mediterranean basin. The Southern Oscillation Index during La Niña years, the self-calibrating Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (van der Schrier et al., 2006; Wells et al., 2004), and nitrate concentrations were significantly correlated on a seasonal basis in the Llobregat River, with both drought and nitrate concentrations increasing during positive ENSO phases. Our hypothesis is that initially unusual within-stream nitrate increases would take place, owing to higher-than-normal evaporation from the river. During drought periods, the hydrological deficit favours nitrate accumulation in the catchment's soils and, thus, a decline in allochthonous inputs to the river water would be expectable. Besides, on the late

  8. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on mean and extreme values of column ozone over the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropavlovskikh, I.; Evans, R.; McConville, G.; Manney, G. L.; Rieder, H. E.

    2014-08-01

    Continuous measurements of total ozone (by Dobson spectrophotometers) across the contiguous United States (US) began in the early 1960s. Here, we analyze temporal and spatial variability and trends in total ozone from the five US sites with long-term records. While similar long-term ozone changes are detected at all five sites, we find differences in the patterns of ozone variability on shorter time scales. In addition to standard evaluation techniques, STL-decomposition methods (Seasonal Trend decomposition of time series based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing, LOESS) are used to address temporal variability and trends in the Dobson data. The LOESS-smoothed trend components show a decline of total ozone between the 1970s and 2000s and a "stabilization" at lower levels in recent years, which is also confirmed by linear trend analysis. Methods from statistical extreme value theory (EVT) are used to characterize days with high and low total ozone (termed EHOs and ELOs, respectively) at each station and to analyze temporal changes in the frequency of ozone extremes and their relationship to dynamical features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation. A comparison of the "fingerprints" detected in the frequency distribution of the extremes with those for standard metrics (i.e., the mean) shows that more "fingerprints" are found for the extremes, particularly for the positive phase of the NAO, at all five US monitoring sites. Results from the STL-decomposition support the findings of the EVT analysis. Finally, we analyze the relative influence of low and high ozone events on seasonal mean column ozone at each station. The results show that the influence of ELOs and EHOs on seasonal mean column ozone can be as much as ±5%, or about twice as large as the overall long-term decadal ozone trends.

  9. Hydrologic variability and the onset of modern El Niño-Southern Oscillation: a 19 250-year record from Lake Elsinore, southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirby, Matthew E.; Lund, Steve P.; Poulsen, Christopher J.

    2005-03-01

    There are very few terrestrial palaeoclimate archives spanning the Last Glacial Maximum through the Holocene from coastal southern California. Yet, knowledge of past climate dynamics is critical for assessing present and future constraints on the region's dwindling freshwater resources. We present initial results from two drill cores extracted from the present-day edge of Lake Elsinore, southern California's largest natural lake. Using a multiproxy approach including lithologic description, mass magnetic susceptibility, LOI 550°C (total organic matter), and LOI 950°C (total carbonate), we infer first-order, long-term climate change over the past 19 250 calendar years. Furthermore, we suggest possible first-order forcing mechanisms that drive this change, which include presence/absence of continental ice sheets, insolation, and complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate four distinct millennial-scale climate modes over the past 19 250 calendar years. These modes include a wet Last Glacial Maximum (19 250-17 120 cal. yr BP), a relatively dry late-Glacial/Holocene transition (17 120-9450 cal. yr BP), a wet early Holocene (9450-7670 cal. yr BP), and a highly variable mid-to-late Holocene climate (i.e., alternating wet/dry cycles; 7670 cal. yr BP-present). We attribute the mid-to-late Holocene climate interval to the onset of El Niño-Southern Oscillation ca. 7000 cal. yr BP and a more vigorous hydrologic system. These results are supported by a variety of regional terrestrial and marine palaeoclimate archives.

  10. Reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1750-1855

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Hannah; Jones, Julie; Bigg, Grant

    2016-04-01

    The logbooks from ships which historically travelled the World's oceans contain a vast amount of meteorological information useful for studies of historical climate. They provide daily, marine-based weather observations from the pre-instrumental era. The Climatological Database for the World's Oceans (CLIWOC) and digitised English East India Company (EEIC) logbooks have been used to investigate the climate during the period 1750-1855. A statistical-based reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been carried out using these databases, focusing on observations from the Indo-Pacific region. The coherency between previous ENSO reconstructions and this new, logbook ENSO reconstruction has been assessed. By uncovering the potential uses of ships' logbook data, and establishing methodologies to reconstruct climate indices, it is hoped that further efforts will be made to digitise ship logbook. Further digitisation would make this unique data source even more valuable to historical climatology.

  11. Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state.

    PubMed

    Sadekov, Aleksey Yu; Ganeshram, Raja; Pichevin, Laetitia; Berdin, Rose; McClymont, Erin; Elderfield, Henry; Tudhope, Alexander W

    2013-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important components of the global climate system, but its potential response to an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 remains largely unknown. One of the major limitations in ENSO prediction is our poor understanding of the relationship between ENSO variability and long-term changes in Tropical Pacific oceanography. Here we investigate this relationship using palaeorecords derived from the geochemistry of planktonic foraminifera. Our results indicate a strong negative correlation between ENSO variability and zonal gradient of sea-surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific during the last 22 ky. This strong correlation implies a mechanistic link that tightly couples zonal sea-surface temperature gradient and ENSO variability during large climate changes and provides a unique insight into potential ENSO evolution in the future by suggesting enhanced ENSO variability under a global warming scenario.

  12. Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation affect the precipitation in Korea on seasonal time scales?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Chang-Hoi; Choi, Woosuk; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Yoo, Hee-Dong

    2016-08-01

    A number of studies in the past two decades have attempted to find the relationship between the precipitation in Korea and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on various time scales. Comprehensive analyses of station precipitation data in Korea for the 61-year period, 1954-2014, in this study show that the effects of ENSO on the seasonal precipitation in Korea are practically negligible. The correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO is insignificant regardless of the intensity, type (e.g., eastern-Pacific or central-Pacific), and stage (e.g., developing, mature, or decaying) of ENSO. Somewhat meaningful correlation between ENSO and precipitation in Korea occurs only in the ENSO-developing fall. Because summer rainfall accounts for over half of the annual total and fall is a dry season in Korea, the overall effects of ENSO on precipitation in Korea are practically nonexistent.

  13. Mid- to late-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation dynamics reflected in the subtropical terrestrial realm

    PubMed Central

    Donders, Timme H.; Wagner, Friederike; Dilcher, David L.; Visscher, Henk

    2005-01-01

    High resolution pollen analysis of mid- to late-Holocene peat deposits from southwest Florida reveals a stepwise increase in wetland vegetation that points to an increased precipitation-driven fresh water flow during the past 5,000 years. The tight coupling between winter precipitation patterns in Florida and the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly suggests that the paleo-hydrology record reflects changes in ENSO intensity. A terrestrial subtropical record outside the Indo Pacific Warm Pool both documents ecosystem response to the known onset of modern-day ENSO periodicities, between ≈7,000 and 5,000 years B.P., and subsequent ENSO intensification after 3,500 years B.P. The observed increases in “wetness” are sustained by a gradual rise in relative sea level that prevents a return to drier vegetation through natural succession. PMID:16043705

  14. Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

    PubMed

    MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

    2014-09-08

    Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

  15. Exploring linkages between coastal progradation rates and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Southwest Washington, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, L. J.; Kaminsky, G. M.; Jol, H. M.

    2003-05-01

    Climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect storm tracks, wave climate, precipitation and sea level in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The impacts of these changes on coastal behavior have not been investigated in detail beyond the study of recent El Niño events, largely because existing historical records of coastal behavior are not of sufficient resolution to study annual responses to climatic forcing. We compare a newly developed annual record of coastal progradation for a location on the Washington coast, generated using high-resolution subsurface ground penetrating radar (GPR), with ENSO indices. This analysis reveals higher rates of seaward coastal growth following the warm, El Niño, ENSO phase and lower rates of coastal growth following the cold, La Niña, ENSO phase. The observed relationship between ENSO and progradation, although weak, is hypothesized to result from differences in sediment transport patterns and beach recovery rates following El Niño and La Niña events.

  16. Centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation changes during the Late Holocene in the southern Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos-Román, M. J.; Jiménez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J.; Carrión, J. S.

    2016-07-01

    High-reso CE to lution pollen analysis, charcoal, non-pollen palynomorphs and magnetic susceptibility have been analyzed in the sediment record of a peat bog in Sierra Nevada in southern Iberia. The study of these proxies provided the reconstruction of vegetation, climate, fire and human activity of the last ∼4500 cal yr BP. A progressive trend towards aridification during the late Holocene is observed in this record. This trend is interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale variability of relatively more humid and arid periods. Arid conditions are recorded between ∼4000 and 3100 cal yr BP, being characterized by a decline in arboreal pollen and with a spike in magnetic susceptibility. This is followed by a relatively humid period from ∼3100 to 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding partially with the Iberian-Roman Humid Period, and is indicated by the increase of Pinus and the decrease in xerophytic taxa. The last 1500 cal yr BP are characterized by several centennial-scale climatic oscillations. Generally arid conditions from ∼450 to 1300 CE, depicted by a decrease in Pinus and an increase in Artemisia, comprise the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Since ∼ 1300 to 1850 CE pronounced oscillations occur between relatively humid and arid conditions. Four periods depicted by relatively higher Pinus coinciding with the beginning and end of the Little Ice Age are interrupted by three arid events characterized by an increase in Artemisia. These alternating arid and humid shifts could be explained by centennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity.

  17. El Nino and the Teacher at Sea.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Kerry Anne

    1998-01-01

    Details the experiences of a teacher who spent a month on a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ship. Reports observations of developing El Nino conditions and presents related classroom activities. (DDR)

  18. Field-Aligned Currents in Saturn's Southern Nightside Magnetosphere: Sub-Corotation and Planetary Period Oscillation Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, G. J.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.; Bunce, E. J.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    We have investigated azimuthal magnetic field data showing the presence of field-aligned current sheets on 31 similar Cassini passes during the 2008 interval of near polar orbits across Saturn's southern post-midnight auroral region at radial distances ~3-5 RS. The currents are found to be strongly modulated in magnitude, form, and position by the phase of the southern planetary period oscillations (PPOs). We separate currents independent of PPO phase from PPO-related currents, by exploiting the expected anti-symmetry of the latter with respect to PPO phase. The PPO-independent current system is thought to be associated mainly with sub-corotation of magnetospheric plasma, and consists of a weak distributed downward current over the whole polar region, enhanced downward currents in a layer mapping to the outer magnetosphere where the ionospheric conductivity is elevated, and a main upward-directed current layer ~2° wide centered at ~18° co-latitude with respect to the southern pole carrying ~2.5 MA per radian of azimuth. The latter current maps to the main region of the hot plasma in Saturn's magnetosphere and is co-located with Saturn's main UV oval in this hemisphere and local time sector. No major currents are detected mapping to the inner equatorial magnetosphere ~4-8 RS dominated by cool Enceladus plasma. The PPO-related currents map to the inner part of the hot plasma region at ~18°-20° co-latitude, and carry rotating upward and downward currents peaking at ~1.7 MA rad-1. The co-latitude of the current layers is also modulated by 1° amplitude in the PPO cycle, with maximum equatorward and poleward excursions adjacent to maximum upward and downward PPO currents, respectively. It is shown that this phasing requires the current system to be driven upward from the planetary atmosphere rather than downward from the magnetosphere.

  19. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Currie, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Kaplan, D. M.; Aumont, O.; Naqvi, S. W. A.; Maury, O.

    2013-10-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5-10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon

  20. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Currie, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Kaplan, D. M.; Aumont, O.; Naqvi, S. W. A.; Maury, O.

    2013-03-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled bio-physical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely-sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997-1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results show that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. IOD depresses integrated chlorophyll in the 5° S-10° S thermocline ridge region, even though the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. A previously-unreported negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is also shown in a region around the southern tip of India. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Lastly, we show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of phytoplankton productivity via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon budgets.

  1. Differential modulation of eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soniat, Thomas M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.

    2009-02-01

    The eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time-frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico

  2. The influence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on secular rainfall variations in Hawai'i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frazier, A. G.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.

    2014-12-01

    Large-scale teleconnections, particularly the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have a strong influence on rainfall patterns in Hawai'i. Over the last century, we have observed statistically significant declines in rainfall across the state, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to changes in these natural large-scale variations in climate, or whether these downward trends can be explained by anthropogenic effects. To better aid managers and decision-makers, it is important to understand what is driving current trends. Here we use an empirical approach to study long-term trends in a geographically complex region and diverse climate. Using a time series of month-year rainfall maps for Hawai'i starting in January 1920 at 250 m resolution, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed to study the spatiotemporal variations and trend patterns. We further correlate the leading spatial and temporal components with ENSO and PDO indices, linear trends, and secular trends. More of the variability is contained in the first component in the winter (December-January-February) than in the summer (June-July-August), especially in the northern islands (Kaua'i and O'ahu) suggesting that natural climate variability has a stronger effect on the spatiotemporal rainfall patterns during the winter season than the summer season. Currently, independent efforts to downscale future climate projections for Hawai'i have produced different future outlooks for rainfall. In the absence of adequately designed control experiments with regional climate models, we propose evaluating differences between observed and projected trend patterns as an alternative criterion for measuring the significance and plausibility of future climate change projections. Our results show the difficulties of separating anthropogenic and natural rainfall trends, e.g., identifying spatial (and seasonal) patterns of the trends that are different from

  3. Possible impacts of mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on Eurasian heat wave frequency variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yefan; Wu, Zhiwei

    2016-04-01

    Identifying predictability sources of heat wave variations is a scientific challenge and of practical importance. This study investigates the summertime heat wave frequency (HWF) over Eurasia for 19502014. The Eurasian HWF is dominated by two distinct modes: the interdecadal (ID) mode featured by an increasing pattern overall, centered around eastern Europe-central Asia and Mongolia-southwestern China; the interannual (IA) mode resembling a tri-pole anomaly pattern with three centers over western-northern Europe, northeastern Asia and East Asia. The ID mode is found to be influenced by mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the latter has far more effect, whereas the IA mode is connected with mega-ENSO. Further analysis suggests that mega-ENSO variations can incite a Gill-type response spreading to Eurasia, while the AMO changes cause eastward-propagating Rossby wave trains toward Eurasia. These two teleconnection patterns together contribute to the large-scale circulation anomalies of the ID mode, and those related to the IA mode arise from the teleconnection pattern excited by mega-ENSO. A strong mega-ENSO triggers subsidence with high pressure anomalies, warms the surface and increases the HWF significantly over northeastern Asia particularly. Likewise, the warm AMO-induced circulation anomalies engender surface radiative heating and HWF growth in most of Eurasian continent except some localized Siberian and Asian regions. The situation is opposite for a weak mega-ENSO and AMO. Those models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which realistically capture the features of the ID mode can reproduce the AMO-like sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), while signals resembling mega-ENSO are found in those with favorable capability of simulating the IA mode. On the contrary, these relevant SSTAs linked to the respective modes vanish in the models with little skills. Thus

  4. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the behavior of floods in the Itajaí River basin in Southern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiago Silva, Artur; Portela, Maria Manuela; Naghettini, Mauro; Fernandes, Wilson

    2016-04-01

    The Itajaí River basin is located in the Southeastern South America (SESA) region, where the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydrometeorological extremes has been reported. The lower reaches of the river are prone to calamitous floods as the basin is frequently subjected to extreme rainfall events. The history of devastating floods motivated the construction of detention dams in the upper reaches of the river during the 1970s-1990s. This work presents a study on the nonstationarity of floods in the Itajaí River, using a peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach applied to flood data from 3 gauging stations located in the Basin. Exploratory data analysis methods and nonstationary Poisson-Generalized Pareto models are used to study the joint influence of ENSO and upstream flood control dams on the flood regime of the river. Bayesian model estimation techniques are used with prior belief about the Generalized Pareto shape parameter elicited from regional information. The analysis revealed that occurrence rate and over-threshold peak magnitudes exhibit statistically significant and complex relationships with ENSO. Results also show evidence that, while upstream flood detention dams play a perceptible, though small, role in reducing flood hazard, the influence of the climate covariate on the flood regime is dominant. Furthermore, increased ENSO activity in recent decades, possibly related to a reported climate regime shift in the mid-1970s, has increased flood hazard and led to the occurrence of very large annual floods.

  5. Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States.

    PubMed

    Fisman, David N; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Brown, Kevin A

    2016-12-20

    Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970-2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.

  6. Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information.

    PubMed

    Del Ponte, Emerson M; Maia, Aline de H N; dos Santos, Thiago V; Martins, Eduardo J; Baethgen, Walter E

    2011-07-01

    Soybean rust (SBR) is a disease of significant impact to Brazilian soybean production. Twenty-four locations in a major growing region in southern Brazil, where long-term (30 years) weather information was available, were selected to estimate the risk of SBR epidemics and identify potential predictors derived from El Niño 3.4 region. A rainfall-based model was used to predict SBR severity in an "epidemic development window" (the months of February and March for the studied region) in the time series. Twenty-eight daily simulations for each year-location (n = 720) were performed considering each day after 31 January as a hypothetical detection date (HDD) to estimate a severity index (SBRindex). The mean SBRindex in a single year was defined as the 'growing season severity index' (GSSI) for that year. A probabilistic risk assessment related GSSI and sea surface temperatures (SST) at the El Niño 3.4. region (here categorized as warm, cold or neutral phase) in October-November-December (OND) of the same growing season. Overall, the median GSSI across location-years was 34.5%. The risk of GSSI exceeding 60% was generally low and ranged from 0 to 20 percentage points, with the higher values found in the northern regions of the state when compared to the central-western. During a warm OND-SST phase, the probability of GSSI exceeding its overall mean (locations pooled) increased significantly by around 25 percentage points compared to neutral and cold SST phases, especially over the central western region. This study demonstrates the potential to use El Niño/Southern Oscillation information to anticipate the risk of SBR epidemics up to 1 month in advance at a regional scale.

  7. Magmatic heat and the El Nino cycle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shaw, H.R.; Moore, J.G.

    1988-01-01

    Large submarine lava flows with apparent volumes exceeding 10 km3 have recently been imaged on the deep ocean floor in various parts of the Pacific by means of GLORIA and SeaMarc side-looking sonar surveys. Such flows may produce thermal anomalies large enough to perturb the cyclic processes of the ocean and could be a factor in the genesis of El Nino phenomena. We find that known volume rates of mid-ocean magma production could generate repetitive thermal anomalies as large as 10% of the average El Nino sea surface anomaly at intervals of about 5 years (the mean interval of El Nino events between 1935 and 1984). Likewise, estimated rates of eruption, cooling of lava on the seafloor, and transfer of heat to the near-surface environment could reasonably produce a thermal anomaly comparable to that associated with El Nino. Larger magmatic events, associated with fluctuations in the total magmatic power and seismicity along the East Pacific Rise, are possible at longer intervals and may explain the extreme size of some El Nino events, such as that of 1982-1983. -Authors

  8. El Niño-southern oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time.

    PubMed

    Yocom, Larissa L; Fulé, Peter Z; Brown, Peter M; Cerano, Julian; Villanueva-Díaz, José; Falk, Donald A; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio

    2010-06-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool events (La Niñia) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences: Fire regimes were reconstructed from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo Le6n. The sites were approximately 25 ha each, and the site centers were approximately 1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645-1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 18.6 years (fires that scarred > or = 25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in

  9. People, El Niño southern oscillation and fire in Australia: fire regimes and climate controls in hummock grasslands.

    PubMed

    Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Bird, Douglas W; Codding, Brian F

    2016-06-05

    While evidence mounts that indigenous burning has a significant role in shaping pyrodiversity, the processes explaining its variation across local and external biophysical systems remain limited. This is especially the case with studies of climate-fire interactions, which only recognize an effect of humans on the fire regime when they act independently of climate. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that an anthropogenic fire regime (fire incidence, size and extent) does not covary with climate. In the lightning regime, positive El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) values increase lightning fire incidence, whereas La Niña (and associated increases in prior rainfall) increase fire size. ENSO has the opposite effect in the Martu regime, decreasing ignitions in El Niño conditions without affecting fire size. Anthropogenic ignition rates covary positively with high antecedent rainfall, whereas fire size varies only with high temperatures and unpredictable winds, which may reduce control over fire spread. However, total area burned is similarly predicted by antecedent rainfall in both regimes, but is driven by increases in fire size in the lightning regime, and fire number in the anthropogenic regime. We conclude that anthropogenic regimes covary with climatic variation, but detecting the human-climate-fire interaction requires multiple measures of both fire regime and climate.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

  10. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

    2015-11-05

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

  11. Parallel responses of species and genetic diversity to El Niño Southern Oscillation-induced environmental destruction.

    PubMed

    Cleary, Daniel F R; Fauvelot, Cécile; Genner, Martin J; Menken, Steph B J; Mooers, Arne Ø

    2006-03-01

    Species diversity within communities and genetic diversity within species are two fundamental levels of biodiversity. Positive relationships between species richness and within-species genetic diversity have recently been documented across natural and semi-natural habitat islands, leading Vellend to suggest a novel macro-ecological pattern termed the species-genetic diversity correlation. We tested whether this prediction holds for areas affected by recent habitat disturbance using butterfly communities in east Kalimantan, Indonesia. Here, we show that both strong spatial and temporal correlations exist between species and allelic richness across rainforest habitats affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation-induced disturbance. Coupled with evidence that changes in species richness are a direct result of local extirpation and lower recruitment, these data suggest that forces governing variation at the two levels operate over parallel and short timescales, with implications for biodiversity recovery following disturbance. Remnant communities may be doubly affected, with reductions in species richness being associated with reductions in genetic diversity within remnant species.

  12. El Niño-Southern Oscillation sensitivity to cumulus entrainment in a coupled general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Daehyun; Jang, Yeon-Soo; Kim, Dong-Hoon; Kim, Young-Ho; Watanabe, Masahiro; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2011-11-01

    A series of 200 year long integrations is performed using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 by varying the Tokioka parameter, a minimum entrainment rate threshold in the cumulus parameterization. Changing the threshold alters both the tropical Pacific mean state and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Increasing the Tokioka parameter causes a basin-wide cooling in the tropical Pacific with the reduction of high clouds. The degree of cooling in the western part of the basin is bigger than that in the east. As a result, the east-west asymmetry in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) decreases with increasing the Tokioka parameter. Accompanied with the reduced east-west SST asymmetry are the increase of mean precipitation over the eastern Pacific and the eastward shift of the atmospheric responses to the ENSO-related SST forcing. The eastward shifted wind stress anomaly associated with ENSO leads to the stronger ENSO variability. In this way the magnitude of ENSO simulated in this model increases with the Tokioka parameter. Implication of our results on the relationship between the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO is discussed.

  13. Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

    2000-01-01

    Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

  14. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; MacKenzie, John S.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

    2015-11-01

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

  15. Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2015-04-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric convection in the tropical Pacific, and modulates global weather and climate. The phase of ENSO influences United States (US) temperature and precipitation and has long been hypothesized to influence severe thunderstorm occurrence over the US. However, limitations of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season. Here we use environmental indices that are correlated with tornado and hail activity, and show that ENSO modulates tornado and hail occurrence during the winter and spring by altering the large-scale environment. We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions. Moreover, winter ENSO conditions often persist into early spring, and consequently the winter ENSO state can be used to predict changes in tornado and hail frequency during the following spring. Combined with our current ability to predict ENSO several months in advance, our findings provide a basis for long-range seasonal prediction of severe thunderstorm activity.

  16. Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.; Lall, U.

    2016-08-01

    Floods are one of the most serious forms of natural hazards in terms of the damages they cause. In 2012 alone, flood damages exceeded 19 billion. A large proportion of the damages from several recent major flood disasters, such as those in South India and South Carolina (2015), England and Wales (2014), the Mississippi (2012), Thailand (2011), Queensland (Australia) (2010-2011), and Pakistan (2010), were related to the long duration of those flood events. However, most flood risk studies to date do not account for flood duration. In this paper, we provide the first global modelling exercise to assess the link between interannual climate variability and flood duration and frequency. Specifically, we examine relationships between simulated flood events and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results show that the duration of flooding appears to be more sensitive to ENSO than is the case for flood frequency. At the globally aggregated scale, we found floods to be significantly longer during both El Niño and La Niña years, compared to neutral years. At the scale of individual river basins, we found strong correlations between ENSO and both flood frequency and duration for a large number of basins, with generally stronger correlations for flood duration than for flood frequency. Future research on flood impacts should attempt to incorporate more information on flood durations.

  17. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced modulations in precipitation and nitrogen wet deposition rates in the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nergui, T.; Chung, S. H.; Adam, J. C.; Evans, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    The ENSO affects atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition rates through its modulation on N wet deposition. Precipitation and wet deposition measurements at 151 sites of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network and the NINO3.4 SST climate index from the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are analyzed to determine the impacts of the ENSO on N wet deposition and precipitation rates in the continental U.S. Precipitation and N wet deposition time series are dominated by high frequency components; however, they contain a wide range of inter-annual frequency components depending on the location. At the 2-to 6-year timescale, variability of precipitation and N wet deposition rates in the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, the Gulf States, the Northeast, and the Great Lakes regions are correlated with that of the NINO3.4 index (r2= 0.09-0.59 for precipitation and r2= 0.09-0.52 for N wet deposition, p<0.05). The spatial patterns and strength of the correlations vary by region and season. The correlations are the strongest and most spatially extensive during winter; 46-62% and 46-53% of the 2- to 6-year variability of precipitation and N wet deposition rates in the Rocky Mountains, the Gulf of Mexico, and near the Great Lakes can be explained by ENSO activity. The wintertime relationships tend to hold through springtime in the Great Lakes, the Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. During the El Niño winters and springs, N wet deposition rates are higher than normal (greater than the 70thpercentile) in the southern Great Plains and the Gulf Coast. Winter and spring La Niña episodes bring precipitation and N wet deposition rates above normal over the Cascades, the Ohio River Valley, the Northeast and the Great Lakes regions. The ensemble mean of eleven coupled General Circulation Models (Yeh et al., 2009) shows that the weak ENSO cycles, having small to moderate amplitudes and reoccurring in shorter time intervals, are projected to dominate in the 21

  18. The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Buechler, D. E.; Knupp, K.; Driscoll, K.; McCaul, E. W.

    1999-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such year-to-year changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the recent ENSO event the greatest year-to-year changes in lightning frequency occur within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin where there is nearly a 200% increase in lightning days year-to-year (35 days in 1997-98 vs. 13 days in 1996-97) and a 200% increase in lightning hours (150 hours vs. 50). These changes occur in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones and an anomalously strong jet stream encompassing much of the Gulf basin.

  19. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Vita, P.; Allocca, V.; Manna, F.; Fabbrocino, S.

    2012-05-01

    Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results

  20. Inter-decadal change in El Niño-Southern Oscillation examined with Bjerknes stability index analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Soon-Il; Bong, Hayoung

    2016-08-01

    Characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have changed since the late 1970s as it synchronized with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In order to investigate the primary feedback process responsible for the interdecadal change in ENSO characteristics according to the PDO, using the ocean assimilation data (SODA) and the reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR), we performed Bjerknes linear stability index (BJ index) analysis of two decadal periods: one before the late 1970s (the nPDO period) and the other after the late 1970s (the pPDO period). The BJ index for the pPDO period (-0.07 year-1 for the growth rate of the eastern Pacific SST anomaly) is significantly larger than that for the nPDO period (-0.25 year-1). The larger BJ index value is primarily due to the enhanced zonal advection feedback (ZA; +0.44 year-1), thermocline feedback (TH; +0.33 year-1), and the reduced damping by the mean meridional current (MD; +0.16 year-1). The increases in ZA and TH are mainly attributed to the shoaling of the mean thermocline depth, which increased the sensitivity of the ocean dynamic fields to the wind forcing; and the reduced MD is related to the reduced mean meridional current associated with the weakened trade wind. The enhanced positive feedback is partly compensated by the enhanced thermodynamic damping including the shortwave, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux (collectively, -0.88 year-1). Interestingly, the change in air-sea coupling strength from the nPDO to the pPDO period was small. Without the two extreme El Niño events (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) in the pPDO period (pPDO_noBIG), the difference in BJ index between nPDO and pPDO_noBIG periods became smaller (~0.07 year-1), indicating that the two extreme El Niño events largely contribute to the larger ENSO variability of the pPDO period, possibly due to nonlinear feedback processes. Nevertheless, qualitative similarity in each of the feedback and damping components of BJ index exists between the p

  1. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on Hessian fly (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) infestation in the southeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Woli, P; Ortiz, B V; Buntin, D; Flanders, K

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability is expected to have an influence on the population of Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor Say (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a serious insect pest of winter wheat in the southeastern United States. This study had two objectives: 1) to examine the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Hessian fly infestation and 2) to develop a weather-based Hessian fly infestation model for wheat yield loss prediction. At least 20 years of Hessian fly infestation and wheat yield records from two locations in South Georgia were used for this study. The yearly values of infestation were separated by ENSO phase and tested to assess the infestation differences across ENSO phases. Each year, yield losses from infestation were calculated by subtracting the yields of resistant varieties from those of susceptible ones. The yield losses were then separated by ENSO phase and tested. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to identify the contribution of monthly weather variables and changes in wheat acreage to Hessian fly infestation. Results showed that Hessian fly infestation and yield losses were greatest during the La Niña and least during the El Niño phase. The weather conditions that significantly increased the risk for infestation were those of the August-February period. The risk of infestation was higher during August-September under wetter, cooler conditions and during October-February under drier, warmer conditions. These findings could help wheat growers reduce the risk of infestation in the years that are expected to have more infestation through the adoption of necessary mitigation measures before the crop season.

  2. Simultaneous modulations of precipitation and temperature extremes in Southern parts of China by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

    2017-01-01

    The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), including a 30-60 day component (BSISO1) and a quasi-biweekly component (BSISO2), is the most prominent form of subtropical intraseasonal variability. Influences of BSISOs on summertime precipitation and temperature extremes in China are examined. Results indicate that BSISOs can simultaneously facilitate precipitation extremes in central-eastern China and extreme high temperatures in South China-Southeast China. During phase 2-4 of active BSISO1, accompanying precipitation extremes in central-eastern China, there is a fourfold-fivefold increase in probability of extreme high temperatures in Southeast China. About 50% of such simultaneous extremes fall into phase 2-3. BSISO2's influences are pronounced from phase 6 to the next phase 2, with about 58% simultaneous extremes clustered within phase 7 to the next phase 1. It is the BSISO-induced vertical cell, with ascending motion in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and descending motion in the south, that contributes to simultaneous extremes. Enhanced low-level southwesterlies convey moist and warm air towards southern parts of China. Strengthened ascending branch loaded by anomalously abundant moisture produces precipitation extremes in the north. Concurrently, combined effects of warm advection and descent-triggered adiabatic heating anchors extreme high temperatures well located in South China. The northeastward propagation of the BSISO1 confines influenced regions to eastern-southeastern parts of China, with gradually narrowing spatial extents. The BSISO2-induced simultaneous extremes sweep much broader areas, from southeast coasts to the central inlands. Above analyses on BSISOs-simultaneous extremes relationship lay a crucial scientific basis for predicting these high-impact events on sub-seasonal to seasonal scales.

  3. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  4. El Niño Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Fuller, D O; Troyo, A; Beier, J C

    2009-03-04

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  5. El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants.

    PubMed

    Paxton, Kristina L; Cohen, Emily B; Paxton, Eben H; Németh, Zoltán; Moore, Frank R

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in

  6. Analysis of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomena's Effect on the Gross Domestic Product of Western Pacific Nations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connell, M.; Lewis, A.; Mezzafonte, D.

    2014-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatological phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a direct influence on the climate of western Pacific nations. This study evaluated the meteorological effects of ENSO on the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. It was hypothesized that decreased precipitation in the western Tropical Pacific region during El Niño events causes decreases in agricultural production in the region resulting in a negative effect on a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, during La Niña events, when precipitation increases, an increase in the nation's agricultural GDP and overall GDP is expected. Annual GDP data were obtained from the World Bank and the Bank of Indonesia for 1960-2012. Sea surface temperatures (SST) data, in the Niño 3.4 region, were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center. Data of the agricultural and total GDP of Indonesia and the Philippines had inconclusive correlations with ENSO signal data. By examining data between smaller time segments of the overall 1960-2012 timeframe, more conclusive results could not be discerned. Indonesia's quarterly non-oil GDP for 2000-2009 was independently correlated with ENSO providing better insight on the variables' relationship during discrete ENSO phenomena. The results provided strong correlation coefficients of 0.831 and 0.624 in support of the antithesis as well as -0.421 in support of the hypothesis. An economic anomaly known as the East Asian Financial Crisis may have been the cause of the unexpected correlations however more data is needed to be certain. Overall, the results demonstrated weak to moderate correlations between studied variables. However, more data is needed to reach substantial conclusions.

  7. El Niño-Southern Oscillation Is Linked to Decreased Energetic Condition in Long-Distance Migrants

    PubMed Central

    Paxton, Kristina L.; Cohen, Emily B.; Paxton, Eben H.; Németh, Zoltán; Moore, Frank R.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in

  8. Tales of volcanoes and El-Niño southern oscillations with the oxygen isotope anomaly of sulfate aerosol

    PubMed Central

    Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L.; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H.

    2013-01-01

    The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth’s system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980–2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher ∆17O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and ∆17O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and ∆17O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that ∆17O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations. PMID:23447567

  9. Exploring impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on Meteorological Forcing within the Glaciated Llanganuco Valley, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Covert, J. M.; Hellstrom, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the primary modulator of inter-annual weather patterns in the Andes, but its impact in the Cordillera Blanca (White Range) is not fully understood. In 2004 an autonomous sensor network (ASN) was installed in the Llanganuco Valley in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru consisting of two automatic weather stations (AWS) located at the base and upper ridge of the valley connected by four air temperature/humidity micro-loggers at equal elevation intervals. The ASN permits high resolution evaluations of the micro-scale meteorology within the valley. Twenty-four hour composites and monthly averages of wind, solar insolation, air temperature profiles, and precipitation obtained from the ASN were analyzed for the historical wet and dry seasons between the years of 2005 and 2015. The evidence suggests that teleconnections exist between eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and meteorological forcing within the Valley. Comparisons between the two AWS units reveal similar ENSO impacts during the wet season that are not replicated in the dry season. We found that warm and cold ENSO create anomalies that appear unique to this region of the outer Tropics. Warm ENSO phases promote wetter than normal dry seasons and dryer than normal wet seasons and visa versa for cold phases of ENSO. Air temperature is strongly positively correlated to warm ENSO phases during the wet season and depends on elevation during the dry season. Insolation is negatively correlated to warm ENSO phases at higher elevations with weak positive correlation at lower elevations. We attribute observed seasonality, in part, to interactions between channeling of synoptic flow and thermally driven winds. Although the sporadic availability of data prevents definitive conclusions at this time, recent improvements in the ASN infrastructure will facilitate deeper understanding of ENSO impacts on meteorological forcing within pro-glacial valleys of the

  10. Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Fisman, David N.; Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Brown, Kevin A.

    2016-01-01

    Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970–2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62–0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02–1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States. PMID:27791069

  11. El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paxton, Kristina L.; Cohen, Emily B.; Paxton, Eben; Németh, Zoltan; Moore, Frank R.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in

  12. Betting with single forams: Uncertainty constraints on El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions using individual foraminiferal analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, T. M.; Thirumalai, K.; Partin, J. W.; Jackson, C. S.

    2012-12-01

    Recent scientific investigations of sub-millennial paleoceanographic variability have attempted to use the population statistics of individual planktic foraminiferal δ18O to resolve high-frequency climate signals such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this approach is complicated by the relatively short lifespan of individual foraminifera (~2-4 weeks) compared to the time represented by a typical marine sediment sample (decades to millennia). The resolving ability of individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA) is investigated through simulations on idealized virtual sediment samples constructed from the instrumental record. We focus on ENSO-related sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. We constrain uncertainties on the range and standard deviation associated with the IFA technique using a bootstrap Monte Carlo approach. Sensitivity to changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency and the influence of the seasonal cycle on IFA are tested by constructing synthetic time series containing different characteristics of variability. We find that the standard deviation and range may be used to detect ENSO amplitude changes at particular thresholds (though the uncertainty in range is much larger than in standard deviation); however, it is improbable that IFA can resolve changes in ENSO frequency. We also determine that ENSO amplitude is the main driver of the IFA signal at Niño3.4 where the SST response to ENSO is large, and the seasonal cycle is relatively small. Our results suggest that rigorous uncertainty analysis should become a standard for IFA studies as it is crucial for accurate interpretation.

  13. Statistical constraints on El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions using individual foraminifera: A sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Partin, Judson W.; Jackson, Charles S.; Quinn, Terrence M.

    2013-09-01

    Recent investigations of submillennial paleoceanographic variability have attempted to resolve high-frequency climate signals such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the population statistics of individual planktic foraminiferal δ18O analyses. This approach is complicated by the relatively short lifespan of individual foraminifers (~2-4 weeks) compared to the time represented by a typical marine sediment sample (~decades to millennia). Here, we investigate the uncertainty associated with individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA) through simulations on forward modeled δ18Ocarbonate. First, focusing on the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a bootstrap Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to constrain the uncertainty on IFA-statistics. Subsequently, to test the sensitivity of IFA to changes in seasonal cycle amplitude, ENSO amplitude, and ENSO frequency, synthetic time series of δ18Ocarbonate with differing variability are constructed and tested with our algorithm. The probabilities of the IFA technique in detecting changes in ENSO amplitude and seasonal cycle amplitude (or a combination of both) for the surface ocean and thermocline at different locations in the tropical Pacific are quantified. We find that the uncertainty in the standard deviation is smaller than the range, that the IFA-signal is insensitive to ENSO frequency, and at certain locations the seasonal cycle may dominate ENSO. IFA sensitivity towards ENSO is highest at the central equatorial Pacific surface ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) thermocline whereas sensitivity towards the seasonal cycle is highest at the EEP surface ocean. Our results suggest that rigorous uncertainty quantification should become standard practice for accurately interpreting IFA-data.

  14. El Niño Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuller, D. O.; Troyo, A.; Beier, J. C.

    2009-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  15. Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2000-01-01

    Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts

  16. Angular momentum exchange among the solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans: A case study of the 1982-1983 El Nino event

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickey, J. O.; Marcus, S. L.; Hide, R.; Eubanks, T. M.; Boggs, D. H.

    1994-01-01

    The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

  17. A study of quasi-millennial extratropical winter cyclone activity over the Southern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lan; von Storch, Hans; Feser, Frauke; Wu, Jian

    2016-10-01

    The winter extratropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere during the last one thousand years within a global climate simulation was analyzed by tracking cyclones, and then clustering them into ten clusters consecutively for each hundred years. There is very strong year-to-year variability for Southern Hemispheric winter extratropical cyclone numbers and larger variations on centennial time scale, more so than for its Northern Hemispherical counterparts. However, no obvious trend can be found. The mean tracks of clusters over the Southern Indian Ocean and near New Zealand shift poleward from the eleventh to the twentieth century while the clusters in the central Southern Pacific shift equatorward. Storm track clusters with largest deepening rates are found over the Southwestern Indian Ocean. In the twentieth century, rapidly deepening cyclones appear more often while long lifespan cyclones appear less frequently. The winter storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere is closely related to the Antarctic Oscillation. The cyclone frequency over the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean can be associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation respectively.

  18. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    DOE PAGES

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-06-02

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

  19. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-06-02

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

  20. Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214

  1. Coral luminescence identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a primary driver of river runoff variability impacting the southern Great Barrier Reef.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.

  2. An application of vessel-based LiDAR to quantify coastal retreat in Southern Monterey Bay, CA during the 2008-2009 year and the 2009-2010 El Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quan, S.; Kvitek, R. G.; Smith, D. P.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal erosion has become a prominent issue in Monterey Bay, California. Areas at high risk include native coastal dunes, private and public beachfront properties, municipal sewage lines, and areas of the highway 1 corridor. Traditional airborne LiDAR has been an effective but costly method for measuring coastal topography by providing high resolution and broad coverage. In 1997 and 1998, NASA, USGS, and NOAA collaborated to conduct pre-and post-El Niño airborne LiDAR surveys of the California coastline. The anticipation of this ENSO event coupled with LiDAR technology resulted in high resolution snapshots of the coastline pre-post El Niño, with analyses yielding erosion rates on the order of nearly seven times the historical annual dune erosion average (Thornton et al 2006). Since then, there have been no further, publicly available LiDAR surveys of the Monterey Bay shoreline. The goal of this project is to apply a vessel-based LiDAR system to measure coastal geomorphology, determine the efficacy of vessel-based topographic LiDAR for mapping coastal geomorphology, and quantify the spatial distribution of coastal retreat for Southern Monterey Bay, California during the 2009-10 El Niño and the 2008-2009 normal (non- El Niño) year. The area of study was the Monterey Bay coastline from Monterey harbor, CA north to Marina State Beach at Reservation Road. Sea cliff morphology data were measured on Dec 9th and 10th, 2008, Nov 4th 2009, and on July 15, 16, and 17th 2010 through the use of a terrestrial LiDAR system mounted atop the CSUMB Seafloor Mapping Lab’s R/V VenTresca. These vessel based LiDAR data were compared using mapping and spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS to quantify the spatial distribution of coastal retreat and calculate erosion rates for the Monterey Bay shoreline during the 2009-2010 El Niño and the 2008-2009 normal year. In keeping with previous published work based on other methods, preliminary results show numerous erosional hotspots which

  3. El Nino as an element of a global-scale wave in the atmosphere-ocean system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2016-04-01

    The analyses of the real meteorological and oceanographical data, and long runs of the coupled atmosphere-ocean hydro- thermodynamical models identify a spatial-temporal structure of the main mode of the interannual to decadal climatic variations. This mode looks like a global-scale wave that extends from West to East around the Earth, and varies rhythmically. In fact, the establishment of this wave is a generalization and development of the well-known structures of the so-called "teleconnections" in the ocean-atmosphere system. The known regional structures like ENSO, IOD, PDO, IPO, PNA, NAO, AO, ACW and other can be considered as parts of this global-scale wave. Moving eastward around the Earth, this wave triggers El Nino - Southern oscillation events. An index of this wave is proposed as a sum of normalized anomalies of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature in 20 locations around the globe. It is proven that the power spectrum of this index is not continuous but discrete in its character. Thus, one can suppose that the dynamics of the global-scale wave is nonchaotic, and so predictable with no limit in principle. The index power spectrum reveals statistically significant peaks at the same periods that are inherent to the power spectra of the traditional ENSO indices. The main peaks are at the sub-harmonics of the well-known Chandler wobble (of the ~1.2 year period) in the Earth's pole motion: 3.6; 4.8; 2.4 years. Some other statistically significant peaks also are seen at the super-harmonics of the Luni-Solar nutation (of the ~18.6 year period), and combinational harmonics of the Schwabe's and Hale's solar activity cycles. Based on the eastward propagation of the global-scale wave, a predictor of ENSO events was suggested. It has high correlation (about 0.7) with Nino indices but leads them on about 12 months. The use of this predictor opens a possibility to overcome the Spring Predictability Barrier in ENSO forecasting.

  4. Short-term effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease in Shenzhen, China.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hualiang; Zou, Hong; Wang, Qinzhou; Liu, Chunxiao; Lang, Lingling; Hou, Xuexin; Li, Zhenjun

    2013-01-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was an emerging viral infectious disease in recent years in Shenzhen. The underlying risk factors have not yet been systematically examined. This study analyzed the short-term effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on pediatric HFMD in Shenzhen, China. Daily count of HFMD among children aged below 15 years old, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and weather variables were collected to construct the time series. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to investigate the effect of daily SOI on pediatric HFMD occurrence during 2008-2010. We observed an acute effect of SOI variation on HFMD occurrence. The extremely high SOI (SOI = 45, with 0 as reference) was associated with increased HFMD, with the relative risk (RR) being 1.66 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.34-2.04). Further analyses of the association between HFMD and daily mean temperature and relative humidity supported the correlation between pediatric HFMD and SOI. Meteorological factors might be important predictors of pediatric HFMD occurrence in Shenzhen.

  5. Seasonal reversal of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on very large wildfire occurrence in the interior northwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brown, Timothy J.

    2015-05-01

    Satellite-mapped fire perimeters and the multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index were used to examine the impact of concurrent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase on very large fire (VLF) occurrences over the intermountain northwestern United States (U.S.) from 1984 to 2012. While the warm phase of ENSO promotes drier and warmer than normal conditions across the region during winter and spring that favor widespread fire activity the following summer, a reduction in VLFs was found during the warm phase of ENSO during summer concurrent with the fire season. This paradox is primarily tied to an anomalous upper level trough over the western U.S. and positive anomalies in integrated water vapor that extend over the northwestern U.S. during summers when the warm phase of ENSO is present. Collectively, these features result in widespread increases in precipitation amount during the summer and a curtailment of periods of critically low-fuel moistures that can carry wildfire.

  6. El Niño-Southern Oscillation determines the salinity of the freshwater lens under a coral atoll in the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, M.; Javaux, M.; Vanclooster, M.; Clothier, B. E.

    2006-11-01

    The freshwater resources of coral atolls occur mainly as lenses floating on salt water underneath the islands. The size and shape of these lenses are determined by hydrogeologic characteristics, the rainfall recharge rate and its temporal variation, plus extractions (Underwood et al., 1992; Jones and Banner, 2003; Jocson et al., 2002). In the South Pacific, rainfall exhibits seasonal as well as interannual variability related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987). We used electric conductivity measurements from pumped wells on Tongatapu to show a moderate ENSO control on the temporal fluctuation of the pumped freshwater salinity. The salinity dynamics depended on low or increased rainfall recharge during respectively dry El Niño periods or wet La Niña events. ENSO events cause a large variation around the mean salinity and determine the relative salinity over the time-scale of several years, while a smaller variation is introduced by seasonal rainfall. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (Troup, 1965; Stone et al., 1996) was used to predict freshwater salinity with a lag time of 10 months.

  7. Statistical analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and sea-floor seismicity in the eastern tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Guillas, Serge; Day, Simon J; McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    We present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). We adopt a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to represent the relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for east Pacific sea-level pressure anomalies) from February 1973 to February 2009. We also examine the relationship between the numbers of earthquakes and sea levels, as retrieved by Topex/Poseidon from October 1992 to July 2002. We observe a significant (95% confidence level) positive influence of SOI on seismicity: positive SOI values trigger more earthquakes over the following 2 to 6 months than negative SOI values. There is a significant negative influence of absolute sea levels on seismicity (at 6 months lag). We propose that increased seismicity is associated with ENSO-driven sea-surface gradients (rising from east to west) in the equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in ocean-bottom pressure over the EPR by a few kilopascal. This relationship is opposite to reservoir-triggered seismicity and suggests that EPR fault activity may be triggered by plate flexure associated with the reduced pressure.

  8. Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

  9. Teleconnected influence of the boreal winter Antarctic Oscillation on the Somali Jet: Bridging role of sea surface temperature in southern high and middle latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Wenjing; Xiao, Ziniu; Xue, Jianjun

    2016-01-01

    The teleconnection impact of the boreal winter Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the Somali Jet (SMJ) intensity in the following spring and summer is examined in this paper. The variability of the boreal winter AAO is positively related to the SMJ intensity in both spring and summer. The analyses show that the SST in southern high and middle latitudes seems to serve as a bridge linking these two systems. When the AAO is in strong positive phase, SST over the Southern Ocean cools in the high latitudes and warms in the middle latitudes, which persists into summer; however, the variability of SST in southern high and middle latitudes is also closely correlated to SMJ intensity. A possible mechanism that links SST variability with the AAO-SMJ relationship is also discussed. The AAO in boreal winter produces an SST anomaly pattern in southern high and middle latitudes through the air-sea coupling. This AAOrelated SST anomaly pattern modulates the local Ferrel cell anomaly in summer, followed by the regional Hadley cell anomaly in tropics. The anomalous vertical motion in tropics then changes the land-sea thermal contrast between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Asian continent through the variability of low cloud cover and downward surface longwave radiation flux. Finally, the land-sea thermal contrast anomaly between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Asian continent changes the SMJ intensity. The results from Community Atmosphere Model experiments forced by the SST anomaly in southern high and middle latitudes also confirm this diagnostic physical process to some extent.

  10. What Is El Nino and How Does It Affect Us?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biachi, Janine; Nutter, Ann; Price, Jon

    This teaching unit provides materials and information about the effects of El Nino on people, the economy, and nature around the world. It is important for students to know the impact El Nino has had on the world. The unit presents information that builds student's interest in other environmental phenomena as well. This unit offers information on…

  11. Pastoral del Nino: Bringing the Abundant Life to Paraguayan Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Austin, Ann Berghout; Aquino, Cyle; Burro, Elizabeth

    2007-01-01

    Pastoral del Nino is transforming children's lives in rural Paraguay. Part of Pastoral Social (Catholic Social Services), Pastoral del Nino's primary focus is to bring "vida en abundancia" (the abundant life) to families by ensuring that mothers survive childbirth and children reach their first birthdays. In addition, the organization…

  12. Circulation patterns associated with droughts over southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garanganga, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paper highlights the circulation patterns associated with droughts that have demonstrated the vulnerability of the socioeconomic development of around 200 million people from 14 the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries to the vagaries of the climate system. The recent, apparently perennial droughts juxtaposed with floods across southern Africa have to be seen against the background of advances made by the scientific community in the understanding of the global ocean-atmosphere system. The paper seeks to contribute to such advances science is making in order to make humankind benefit from the knowledge science has provided. The data used in the analyses include actual rainfall from the SADC countries and those from the United States NOAA (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis) data banks. The paper briefly looks at the regional climatology of the SADC countries, which shows that rains fall within the period October during one year to March of the following year. Most of the damaging droughts have tended to occur during January to March. Thus, the more detailed analysis of the circulation characteristics has a focus of composite of these months. A few recent drought years are selected for analyzing of the dynamical structures of the regional circulation patterns and the tropical ocean and global atmosphere. These tended to coincide with El Ninos. However, the selected years include the recent drought during the 2001/2002 rainfall season, which occurred in a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. There emerged significant similarity between rainfall anomaly variability and the ENSO signals. The many parameters of the atmosphere showed consistent characteristics in different drought years. The regional circulation patterns associated with droughts show similarities in both active and neutral ENSO years. The study also shows how possible generators of the climate anomalies can be grouped together. Thus the diagnosis of the various fields contributes to

  13. El Nino influence on Holocene reef accretion in Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rooney, J.; Fletcher, C.; Grossman, E.; Engels, M.; Field, M.

    2004-01-01

    intertidal zone. We infer that forcing other than relative sea-level rise has altered the natural ability to support reef accretion on Hawaiian insular shelves. The limiting factor in these areas today is wave energy. Numbers of both large North Pacific swell events and hurricanes in Hawai'i are greater during El Nino years. We infer that if these major reef-limiting forces were suppressed, net accretion would occur in some areas in Hawai'i that are now wave-limited. Studies have shown that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was significantly weakened during early-mid Holocene time, only attaining an intensity similar to the current one ca. 5000 yr ago. We speculate that this shift in ENSO may assist in explaining patterns of Holocene Hawaiian reef accretion that are different from those of the present and apparently not related to relative sen-level rise.

  14. The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Buechler, D. E.; Knupp, K.; Driscoll, K.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.

  15. Watching for the Next El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This Topex/Poseidon image of sea-surface heights was taken during a 10-day collection cycle ending August 7, 2002. Sea-surface heights are a measure of how much heat is stored in the ocean below to influence future planetary climate events. Since May 2001, there have been a series of warm Kelvin waves--eastward-moving ocean waves that cross the equatorial Pacific in about two months. A sizable one arrived at the South American coast last February, raising the ocean temperature by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and triggering the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast for a mild El Nino in 2002. There was another wave in June, followed by the current large pool of warm water in the tropical Pacific that is now moving toward the coast of South America at a speed of 215 kilometers (134 miles) a day and will arrive there in three to four weeks, raising ocean temperatures. Scientists will continue to monitor the Pacific closely for further signs of El Nino formation and intensity.

  16. El Nino Threatens, but Fizzles (for Now)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    For the first two weeks in June, the surface winds and sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean began to display an all-too-familiar pattern. Normally, the trade winds in the equatorial Pacific blow from east to west and push warm surface waters from the eastern Pacific westward. As is indicated by the arrows displaying wind speed and direction in the above Quick Scatterometer (QuikScat) satellite data, the trade winds stopped and in some cases reversed course across the equatorial Pacific in early June. Consequently, the waters in the eastern Pacific grew warmer than usual. If this trend continued or intensified, another El Nino would have settled in by fall 2002 and rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns would have begun to change across North and South America. However, in the later half of June conditions returned to normal. Scientists hope that satellite data from QuikScat will help them to study and even forecast future El Nino events. Launched aboard the SeaWinds satellite in 1999, the QuickScat instrument essentially sends out high frequency radio waves to detect the frothiness of ocean water. Since choppy ocean water is created almost solely by the surface winds blowing across the ocean, scientists can obtain an accurate measure of wind speed and direction from these data. Image courtesy NASA JPL Air-Sea Interaction and Climate Team

  17. The Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Bergen Climate Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignot, Juliette; Frankignoul, Claude

    2005-07-01

    The link between the interannual to interdecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the atmospheric forcing is investigated using 200 yr of a control simulation of the Bergen Climate Model, where the mean circulation cell is rather realistic, as is also the location of deep convection in the northern North Atlantic. The AMOC variability has a slightly red frequency spectrum and is primarily forced by the atmosphere. The maximum value of the AMOC is mostly sensitive to the deep convection in the Irminger Sea, which it lags by about 5 yr. The latter is mostly forced by a succession of atmospheric patterns that induce anomalous northerly winds over the area. The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas is represented realistically, but its influence on the AMOC is limited to the interannual time scale and is primarily associated with wind forcing. The tropical Pacific shows a strong variability in the model, with too strong an influence on the North Atlantic. However, its influence on the tropical Atlantic is realistic. Based on lagged correlations and the release of fictitious Lagrangian drifters, the tropical Pacific seems to influence the AMOC with a time lag of about 40 yr. The mechanism is as follows: El Niño events induce positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the tropical Atlantic that are advected northward, circulate in the subtropical gyre, and then subduct. In the ocean interior, part of the salinity anomaly is advected along the North Atlantic current, eventually reaching the Irminger and Labrador Seas after about 35 yr where they destabilize the water column and favor deep convection.

  18. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Rhythm, Dec, 10, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec.10, 1997 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume and area of the warm water pool related to El Nino has increased again after reaching a temporary low around Dec. 1. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking the fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began early this year. Oceanographers believe the recent increases and decreases in the size of the warm water pool at the equator are part of the natural rhythm of El Nino and that the warm pool is occasionally pumped up by wind bursts blowing from the western and central Pacific Ocean. Each wind burst has triggered a temporary increase in area and volume of the warm pool. These data collected throughout 1997 have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream

  19. Performance of Simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium: Comparison of Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Eugene R.; Amrhein, Dan E.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Ammann, Caspar M.

    2010-05-01

    A key question in late-Holocene climate dynamics is the role of dominant modes in influencing climates in teleconnected regions of the world. For example, it has recently been proposed that ENSO had a key role in influencing the extended period of largely positive-phase NAO during ~1100-1400 CE (Trouet et al., 2009, Science, 324, 78). Fundamental to understanding the global and regional climatological roles of dominant modes are primary data on the variations of the modes themselves, in particular paleoclimate data that greatly extend instrumental-period information. Establishing records of ENSO indices that span the past millennium has proven difficult, and well-verified reconstructions produced to date have non-trivial differences (cf., e.g., Braganza et al., 2009, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D05106). This presentation examines important general questions regarding reconstructions of modal indices, including ENSO: is it best (1) to focus on proxy evidence from the most strongly influenced (or most strongly teleconnected) areas, (2) to combine proxy data from a large regional network encompassing the primary area of modal activity and teleconnections (e.g., around the Pacific Rim in the case of ENSO), or (3) to use climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods that assimilate up-to-global-scale proxy information? A systematic suite of reconstruction simulation experiments (RSEs), derived from NCAR CSM 1.4 millennium transient model output, is explored to test the various strengths and weaknesses of these three approaches for reconstructing the NINO3 index. By doing this, NINO3 reconstruction fidelity can be gauged over the entire simulated millennium via comparison to the known model target; such comparisons are restricted to brief "validation" periods in real-world reconstructions due to the length of the instrumental record. For strategies (1) and (2), pseudoproxies are formed by adding white noise to the model output (seasonally-appropriate precipitation

  20. An analysis of the feasibility of long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia using El Niño Southern Oscillation indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, F.; Dracup, J. A.

    2001-06-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the discharge of Colombian rivers and analyzes the possibility of using this relationship to forecast streamflows. Systematic cross-correlations are performed in the exploratory analysis to determine the lag time between ENSO and its effects on Colombian streamflows and the ENSO indicators with the strongest relationship with Colombian streamflows. Several streamflow periods, ENSO indicators, periods for each ENSO indicator, and lag times are considered. The authors demonstrate that long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia based on ENSO indicators is possible, and that the best ENSO indicators for predicting streamflows in Colombia are the MEI, the SOI, and the Niño 4 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  1. Non-stationary influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio

    2012-09-01

    The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.

  2. Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, B. L.; Chang, J.; Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; DAntoni, Hector (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

  3. Influence of El Nino and ITCZ on Brazilian River Streamflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, A.; Dracup, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    This study analyzes effects of climatic phenomena El Nino and ITCZ latitudinal movements on streamflow patterns in major Brazilian river basins: Amazon (north), Araguaia-Tocantins (central-north), Parana (central-south) and Sao Francisco (central-northeast). Multiple correlation between annual streamflows and the NINO 3.4 and North Tropical Atlantic SST indexes (NTA) were analyzed for each river basin using different annual periods in order to account for the delay in streamflow response. The data consists of unimpaired river discharge time series at key points (from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA)); normalized yearly averaged NINO3.4 index characterizing El Nino (from NOAA); and NTA index (from NOAA), as a surrogate of the latitudinal movement of the ITCZ, since it is correlated to the Atlantic SST gradient. As a result, each river basin showed a different response. At the Amazon river basin, almost all dry years occurred when NINO3.4 was above average (El Nino years). Moreover, in almost every year when NINO3.4 was below average (La Nina) the streamflows were above average. Thus, it seems that La Nina have strong effects in floods in Amazon river. Moreover, El Nino events seem to be a necessary, but not sufficient condition for low streamflows at Amazon river. A weaker relationship was found for Xingu river basin, since it is probably affected by cold fronts from the south. As the location of river basins changes towards the south, the effect of El Nino events gets weaker as for Araguaia-Tocantins and Sao Francisco river basins. At the Parana river basin, the relationship is reversed. Almost all extreme wet years occurred during El Nino years. The correlation between streamflows and the NTA indexes were very weak for all river basins except for the Amazon. When the NTA anomaly is negative, wet years occurs, since the ITCZ moves southwards and stays longer at that position, increasing rainfall over the Amazon and Northeast of Brazil. In contrast, almost

  4. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino is Still Lingering in the Pacific May 3, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea-surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea-surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on May 3, 1998, and sea-surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that sea-surface height along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has maintained a near normal state since March 1998. However, the western equatorial Pacific, shown here in purple, has not returned to a normal state and is still about 30 centimeters (12 inches) below normal sea level. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north of the equator. Oceanographers indicate these measurements show that the Pacific has not yet fully recovered from this large El Nino event. These sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm water pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National

  5. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

    PubMed Central

    Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

    2004-01-01

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion. PMID:15263069

  6. The Origins of Mexico's Universidad de los Ninos.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Raquel

    1989-01-01

    The article describes an after school program, the Universidad de los Ninos, in Mexico City, for children with special abilities. The program stresses development of individual potential, a flexible curriculum, parent involvement, and development of social responsibility. (DB)

  7. Did El Nino Weather Give Zika a Boost?

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_162611.html Did El Nino Weather Give Zika a Boost? Climate phenomenon could have helped infection- ... might have aided the explosive spread of the Zika virus throughout South America, a new study reports. ...

  8. El Nino - La Nina Implications on Flood Hazard Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    R. French; J. Miller

    2006-03-31

    The effects of El Nino and La Nina periods on the maximum daily winter period depths of precipitation are examined using records from five precipitation gages on the Nevada Test Site. The potential implications of these effects are discussed.

  9. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds

  10. Volcanos and El Nino: Signal separation in northern hemisphere winter

    SciTech Connect

    Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

    1995-08-01

    The frequent coincidence of volcanic forcing with El Nino events disables the clear assignment of climate anomalies to either volcanic or El Nino forcing. In order to select the signals, a set of four different perpetual January GCM experiments was performed (control, volcano case, El Nino case and combined volcano/El Nino case) and studied with advanced statistical methods for the Northern Hemisphere winter. The results were compared with observations. The signals for the different forcings are discussed for three variables (temperature, zonal wind and geopotential height) and five levels (surface, 850 hPa. 500 hPa, 200 hPa and 50 hPa). The global El Nino signal can be selected more clearly in the troposphere than in the stratosphere. In contrast, the global volcano signal is strongest in the stratospheric temperature field. The amplitude of the perturbation for the volcano case is largest in the Atlantic region. The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of short-wave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in sub-tropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland are well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is weak in high latitudes during winter. A statistically significant tropospheric signal of El Nino forcing occurs in the subtropics and in the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combined signal is different from a simple linear combination of the separate signals. It leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone and to a somewhat modified pattern. 73 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Climate Analysis of Evaporation Ducts in the South China Sea

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-01

    Oscillation Index, Nino 4 , and the Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Indices. Improved understanding and skillful predictions of seasonal and climate scale variations...several climate variation indices, including the Multivariable El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, Nino 4 , and the Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Indices...Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) ...........................................19  b.  Nino 4 Index

  12. January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barnston, Anthony G.; Livezey, Robert E.

    1990-01-01

    Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

  13. Pacific Decadal Variability in the Southern Indian Ocean: A 1 ky Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Australian Megadrought Reconstruction from Law Dome, East Antarctica.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vance, T.; Roberts, J. L.; Plummer, C. T.; Kiem, A.; van Ommen, T. D.

    2014-12-01

    The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a multidecadal mode of Pacific basin SST anomalies, and is the basin-wide, bi-hemispheric expression of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The two indices are highly correlated, but the extent to which they are merely low frequency ENSO is debated. Nonetheless, the IPO/PDO significantly influences interannual rainfall variability and drought risk across and beyond the Pacific region on multi-decadal timescales, thus an understanding of long-term IPO/PDO variability will help with assessing past and future drought risk. A new and highly accurate 1 ky IPO reconstruction has been produced from the Law Dome ice core (East Antarctica). Law Dome is a high accumulation site on the coast of Antarctica in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean, and the Law Dome record is directly related to atmospheric anomalies across a broad mid-latitude swathe of this region. The reconstruction utilizes both the accumulation (snowfall) and sea salt (wind proxy) records to produce a reconstruction that is highly calibrated to the instrumental IPO record from 1870-2009 and shows excellent skill (reduction of error value of 0.86). We then super-imposed the 1 ky IPO on a Law Dome proxy for rainfall in eastern subtropical Australia (previously shown to represent rainfall with high significance during IPO positive phases (r =0.406-0.677, p <0.0001-0.01) to identify eight Australian 'mega-droughts' (dry periods >5 y duration) over the last millennium. Six mega-droughts occur between AD 1000-1320 including one 39 y drought (AD 1174-1212). Water resources and infrastructure planning in Australia has been based on very limited statistical certainty around drought risk due to the short instrumental record and lack of rainfall proxies. A recent drought (the 'Big Dry' ~1995-2009) brought both agricultural and urban water supplies to critically low levels, while the Murray-Darling Basin river system, which provides 65% of the water used for

  14. Changes in El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) chronozone revealed by New Zealand tree-rings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Cook, Edward R.; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan

    2016-12-01

    The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remain uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning GS-1, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study on a 1010-year sub-fossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between ∼12,500 and 12,380 cal BP within GS-1. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation change during this period. The driver(s) for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.

  15. Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

    2009-03-01

    We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

  16. Bacterial community composition and physiological shifts associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Patos Lagoon estuary.

    PubMed

    They, Ng Haig; Ferreira, Lise Maria Holanda; Marins, Luís Fernando; Abreu, Paulo Cesar

    2015-04-01

    The Patos Lagoon estuary is a microtidal system that is strongly regulated by atmospheric forces, including remote large-scale phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects precipitation patterns in the region. In this study, we investigated whether the bacterial community composition (BCC), community-level physiological profiles (CLPP), and a set of environmental variables were affected by the transition from a moderate El Niño to a strong La Niña event (June 2010 to May 2011). We identified two distinct periods: a period following El Niño that was characterized by low salinity and high concentrations of NO3(-) and PO4(-3) and low molecular weight (LMW) substances and a period following La Niña during which salinity, temperature, and transparency increased and the concentrations of nutrients and LMW substances decreased. The BCC and CLPP were significantly altered in response to this transition. This is the first study addressing the effect of ENSO on bacteria at the community level in an estuarine system. Our results suggest that there is a link between ENSO and bacteria, indicating the role of climate variability in bacterial activities and, hence, the cycling of organic matter by these microorganisms.

  17. Changes in the apparent survival of a tropical bird in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation in mature and young forest in Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Wolfe, Jared D; Ralph, C John; Elizondo, Pablo

    2015-07-01

    The effects of habitat alteration and climatic instability have resulted in the loss of bird populations throughout the globe. Tropical birds in particular may be sensitive to climate and habitat change because of their niche specialization, often sedentary nature, and unique life-cycle phenologies. Despite the potential influence of habitat and climatic interactions on tropical birds, we lack comparisons of avian demographics from variably aged forests subject to different climatic phenomena. Here, we measured relationships between forest type and climatic perturbations on White-collared Manakin (Manacus candei), a frugivorous tropical bird, by using 12 years of capture data in young and mature forests in northeastern Costa Rica. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and an analysis of deviance to contrast the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on manakin survival. We found that ENSO had little effect on manakin survival in mature forests. Conversely, in young forests, ENSO explained 79% of the variation where dry El Niño events negatively influenced manikin survival. We believe mature forest mitigated negative effects of dry El Niño periods and can serve as refugia for some species by buffering birds from climatic instability. Our results represent the first published documentation that ENSO influences the survival of a resident Neotropic landbird.

  18. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the population structure of a sea lion breeding colony in the Gulf of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirasago-Germán, Bernardo; Pérez-Lezama, Edgar L.; Chávez, Ernesto A.; García-Morales, Ricardo

    2015-03-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has a significant influence on Pacific marine ecosystems from primary trophic levels to top predators that cause fluctuations in their populations. Based on this fact we analyzed the sea lion Zalophus californianus population structure variability using censuses performed from 1979 to 2004 in Los Islotes breeding colony located at La Paz Bay as well as concomitant the ENSO phenomenon variability. To discriminate variations in the population structure not ascribable to the population attributes, a virtual population was created and compared to the census population. The residuals obtained from this comparison were correlated with the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) and BEST (Bivariate ENSO Time Series) indices, descriptors of the ENSO variability. The results showed that the population structure is an adequate descriptor of the conditions of the population instead of the abundance, and the total population is affected by the ENSO. The adult, subadult and pup male groups were the most sensitive groups to this phenomenon due to their intrinsic development and behavior. Likewise the BEST index is a better descriptor than the MEI index of the ENSO influence in the region where the breeding colony Los Islotes resides. Therefore we demonstrate in this work that changes caused by the ENSO not directly affect the sea lion due to its homeothermic capacity but affects the habitat where this organism performs its biological functions, producing behavioral changes in the population.

  19. Analysis of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago

    2012-09-01

    The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

  20. Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia

    PubMed Central

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Villarini, Gabriele; Gonzales, Angelique N.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Wanamaker, Alan D.; Humphreys, William F.; Woods, David; Cugley, John

    2015-01-01

    Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term “direct” storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multicentennial variability in extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth century, 850–1450 CE (Common Era), and 50–400 CE; reduced activity marks 1450–1650 CE and 500–850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and they form temporal and spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niño or La Niña states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity. PMID:25825740

  1. Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia.

    PubMed

    Denniston, Rhawn F; Villarini, Gabriele; Gonzales, Angelique N; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J; Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Lachniet, Matthew S; Wanamaker, Alan D; Humphreys, William F; Woods, David; Cugley, John

    2015-04-14

    Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term "direct" storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multicentennial variability in extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth century, 850-1450 CE (Common Era), and 50-400 CE; reduced activity marks 1450-1650 CE and 500-850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and they form temporal and spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niño or La Niña states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity.

  2. Local temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation influence migration phenology of East Asian migratory waterbirds wintering in Poyang, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Fei; Liu, Guanhua; Si, Yali

    2016-12-19

    Temperature is a critical factor influencing avian phenology, due to its direct impact on food and water availability. Most previous studies have focused on the timing of spring migration and arrival of birds at breeding grounds along the European and American flyways; little is known about migration ecology at the wintering sites along the Asian flyways. This study investigates how local temperature variation and EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the arrival and departure timing of nine waterbird species breeding in Mongolia or Siberia and overwintering in Poyang, China from 2002 to 2013, using linear regression models. Birds mainly arrive at Poyang in October and depart for their breeding sites in March. Six out of nine species show a strong negative relationship between departure time and overwintering temperature in Poyang. Departure dates also show a negative association with overwintering ENSO and March ENSO for two species. Both local and large-scale climate indices show no influence on the arrival timing of waterbirds. We suggest that birds react to the annual variation of overwintering temperature: an earlier departure of waterbirds is facilitated by a warmer overwintering period and vice versa. The long-term accumulated temperature effect is more pronounced than ENSO and the short-term local temperature effect. Our findings could help quantify the potential impact of global warming on waterbirds. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Recharge beneath low-impact design rain gardens and the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on urban, coastal groundwater resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newcomer, M. E.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments are highly vulnerable to increased human pressures and climate variability. Impervious surfaces, such as buildings, roads, and parking lots prevent infiltration, reduce recharge to underlying aquifers, and increase contaminants in surface runoff that often overflow sewage systems. To mitigate these effects, cities worldwide are adopting low impact design (LID) approaches that direct runoff into natural vegetated systems, such as rain gardens that reduce, filter, and slow stormwater runoff, and are hypothesized to increase infiltration and recharge rates to aquifers. The effects of LID on recharge rates and quality is unknown, particularly during intense precipitation events for cities along the Pacific coast in response to interannual variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using vadose zone monitoring sensors and instruments, I collected and monitored soil, hydraulic, and geochemical data to quantify the rates and quality of infiltration and recharge to the California Coastal aquifer system beneath a LID rain garden and traditional turf-lawn setting in San Francisco, CA. The data were used to calibrate a HYDRUS-3D model to simulate recharge rates under historical and future variability of ENSO. Understanding these processes has important implications for managing groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments.

  4. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Moisture in the Atmosphere, Jan & Feb, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    his series of six images shows the evolution of atmospheric water vapor over the Pacific Ocean during the 1998 El Nino condition. Higher than normal ocean water temperatures increase the rate of evaporation, and the resulting warm moist air rises into the atmosphere, altering global weather patterns. Data obtained by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during January and February 1998 show a decrease in the extent of high levels of water vapor (red) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and an increase in water vapor (yellow to red) over the northwestern Pacific off the coast of Japan. This area is a breeding ground for winter storms that move eastward toward North America. During this El Nino condition, the southern tropical jet stream has shifted northward, bringing additional moisture from the tropics. When these two sources of moisture converge near California, they produce storms with higher-than-normal rainfall.

    For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page at http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov

  5. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: Can the past provide a key to the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pudmenzky, C.; Stone, R.; Allan, R.; Butler, H.

    2011-12-01

    Wind erosion is an internationally recognised land degradation problem and affects approximately 28% of the global land area. The Australian continent is the largest dust source in the Southern Hemisphere with an emission rate of around 100 Tg yr-1 or approximate 5% of the global total. The climate (especially eastern Australian climate) is greatly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is the strongest natural fluctuation of climate on interannual time-scales and also affects climate conditions globally. ENSO is the core driver of extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, bushfires, dust storms and tropical cyclones and up to 50% of annual rainfall variability in northern and eastern Australia is linked to ENSO. These drier conditions will reduce vegetation cover and result in an increased dust storm activity in the future in central eastern Australia during dry El Niño phases of the Southern Oscillation. The Lake Eyre Basin, Channel Country and the Mallee region are the main dust source areas and severe dust storms have the potential to transport millions of tonnes of fertile topsoil from inland Australia to places as far as New Zealand, New Caledonia and Antarctic. The research project will investigate the influence of the ENSO on dust storm activity in Australia. This will be achieved through major reanalysis of past climate conditions for the past 150 years or more using the global 'Atmospheric Circulation Reconstruction over the Earth' (ACRE) project outputs which will reconstruct both upper-air dynamics, surface conditions and then all major dust storm events of the past. Australia has one of the most variable rainfall climates in the world and observational and modelling results suggest that more frequent or stronger ENSO events are possible in the future. Drought in Australia is probably the most economically costly climate event and has environmental and social impacts by reducing agricultural output and having social

  6. Farming and fishing in the wake of El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Tibbetts, J.

    1996-09-01

    How does the periodic warming of the waters of the central Pacific relate to global climate change and food production? In Queensland, Australia, savvy farmers keep a sharp eye on signs of El Nino, which usually brings drought that withers the state`s winter wheat crop. Returning every four years on average and usually lasting approximately a year, El Nino is an unusual warming in the central Pacific that builds storms and disrupts wind patterns, turning weather upside down in far-removed regions. But El Nino took scientists by surprise when it persisted from 1991 to 1995. This was the first time that El Nino had lasted for more than three years since monitoring began in the 1870s. And true to form, El Nino of 1991-1995 brought extreme drought to Queensland, in north-eastern Australia, drying out farmland and costing the state economy approximately $1 billion (Australian) a year. The drought, for example, dropped rainfall levels to all-time lows in Toowoomba, one of the state`s prime cereal-growing regions.

  7. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino in Retreat, Pacific in Transition, June 14, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea-surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea-surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on June 14, 1998, and sea-surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. This image shows that the tropical Pacific has been switching from warm to cold during the last few months. The purple area in the center of the image is a pulse of cold water moving across the equator which the satellite measures as a region of lower than normal sea level. Scientists indicate that it appears that the central equatorial Pacific ocean will stay colder than normal for some time to come because sea level is about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. It is not certain yet, if this current cooling trend (shown in purple) will eventually evolve into a long-lasting La Nina situation. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown here in red and white, are still lingering north of the equator in the center of this image. The effects of El Nino can remain in the climate system for a long time and could still impact weather conditions around the world. The satellite's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1997-98 El Nino because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white areas show the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The purple areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal and the blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a

  8. Precipitation Anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean and Possible Links to the Initiation of El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A pattern of variability in precipitation and 1000mb zonal winds for the tropical Indian Ocean during, 1979 to 1999 (AtmIO mode) is described using EOFs. The AtmIO mode consists of a cross-equatorial gradient of precipitation anomalies and equatorial wind anomalies of alternating signs on the Equator. The positive phase is defined as enhanced precipitation to the In "n south of the equator, suppressed precipitation to the north, and anomalous westerlies centered on the island of Sumatra. In September-October 1981, February-March 1990, and October-December 1996 the AtmIO mod-, was positive and there was a significant 30-60 day variability in the gradient of precipitation anomalies. These cases coincided with moderate to heavy ,activity in the Madden-Jullan Oscillation (MJO). Links between the AtmIO, MJO, and El Nino are discussed.

  9. An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: Implications for predictability

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, D.; Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.

    1995-09-22

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation procedure yields improved forecasts of El Nino for the 1980s compared with previous forecasting procedures. As in earlier forecasts with the same model, no oceanic data were used, and only wind information was assimilated. The improvement is attributed to the explicit consideration of air-sea interaction in the initialization. These results suggest that El Nino is more predictable than previously estimated, but that predictability may vary on decadal or longer time scales. This procedure also eliminates the well-known spring barrier to El Nino prediction, which implies that it may not be intrinsic to the real climate system. 24 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Insights into Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) Data Record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Anne M.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Schmidlin, Francis J.; Volker, W.; Kirchhoff, J. H.; Posny, Franaoise; Gert, J.; Coetzee, R.; Hoegger, Bruno; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We describe the first overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropics based on a three year, ten site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approximately 7 hPa and relative humidity to approximately 200 hPa, are at an archive: http://code9l6. gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/shadoz. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone, a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone, and signatures of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts usually peak between August and November and are lowest in the first half of the year. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the waning 1997-1998 Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO (El Nino / Southern Oscillation), seasonal convection and pollution transport from Africa. Tropospheric ozone over the Atlantic Basin reflects regional subsidence and recirculation as well as pollution ozone from biomass burning.

  11. Variability in fusarium head blight epidemics in relation to global climate fluctuations as represented by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other atmospheric patterns.

    PubMed

    Kriss, A B; Paul, P A; Madden, L V

    2012-01-01

    Cross-spectral analysis was used to characterize the relationship between climate variability, represented by atmospheric patterns, and annual fluctuations of Fusarium head blight (FHB) disease intensity in wheat. Time series investigated were the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is a measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which are known to have strong influences on the Northern Hemisphere climate, and FHB disease intensity observations in Ohio from 1965 to 2010 and in Indiana from 1973 to 2008. For each climate variable, mean climate index values for the boreal winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) were utilized. The spectral density of each time series and the (squared) coherency of each pair of FHB-climate-index series were estimated. Significance for coherency was determined by a nonparametric permutation procedure. Results showed that winter and spring ONI were significantly coherent with FHB in Ohio, with a period of about 5.1 years (as well as for some adjacent periods). The estimated phase-shift distribution indicated that there was a generally negative relation between the two series, with high values of FHB (an indication of a major epidemic) estimated to occur about 1 year following low values of ONI (indication of a La Niña); equivalently, low values of FHB were estimated to occur about 1 year after high values of ONI (El Niño). There was also limited evidence that winter ONI had significant coherency with FHB in Indiana. At periods between 2 and 7 years, the PNA and NAO indices were coherent with FHB in both Ohio and Indiana, although results for phase shift and period depended on the specific location, climate index, and time span used in calculating the climate index. Differences in results for Ohio and Indiana were expected because the FHB disease series for the two states were not similar. Results suggest that global climate indices

  12. Ocean wave dynamics and El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, E.K.; Huang, B.; Shukla, J.

    1995-10-01

    The response of an ocean general circulation model to specified wind stress is used to understand the role of ocean wave propagation in the evolution of El Nino events in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In a control experiment the ocean model reproduces observed equatorial Pacific interannual variability in response to forcing by the observed wind stress. The ocean model is then forced with the same wind stress but with the time evolution of the wind stress forcing reversed. An analysis of the anomalies from the annual cycle in these two experiments delineates the parts of the response that are in equilibrium with and out of equilibrium with the wind stress forcing. The experiment demonstrates that the heat content is not in equilibrium with the wind stress forcing either on or near the equator. Very close to the equator the slope of the thermocline is in equilibrium with the wind stress, but the mean heat content is far from equilibrium. Slightly off of the equator in the western Pacific westward propagating heat content anomalies appear to originate in regions of strong wind stress forcing and then propagate to the western boundary. These westward propagating anomalies also depart significantly from equilibrium with the wind stress forcing. Additional experiments allow these westward propagating anomalies to be identified as freely propagating Rossby waves. The Rossby waves are shown to determine the equatorial heat content response to the wind stress forcing when they arrive at the western boundary and to be responsible for the nonequilibrium behavior of the equatorial mean heat content. A simplified coupled model is derived by fitting the results and estimating parameter values from the numerical experiments. 45 refs., 16 figs.

  13. Radiolarian indicators of El Nino and anti-El Nino events in Holocene sediments of Santa Barbara basin

    SciTech Connect

    Weinheimer, A.L.

    1986-04-01

    Radiolarian distributions and physical oceanographic data from the Santa Barbara basin indicate the following. Strong anti-El Nino periods can be characterized by (1) intermediate radiolarian density, (2) high percentage of transition-central radiolarian fauna, and (3) low percentage and number of warm-water radiolarian fauna. This distribution pattern is attributed to strong wind-driven upwelling and reduced northward transport by the California Countercurrent during anti-El Nino periods. Strong El Nino periods are typically (1) high in radiolarian density, and (2) low in percentage but high in number of warm-water fauna. This distribution is attributed to reduced wind-driven upwelling, enhanced northward countercurrent transport, and geostrophic doming of the cold-water masses in the shear zone between the California Current and California Countercurrent.

  14. 78 FR 49468 - Arturo Guillermo Nino, Inmate Number #04908-379, FCI Beaumont Low, Federal Correctional Institute...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-14

    ... Bureau of Industry and Security Arturo Guillermo Nino, Inmate Number 04908-379, FCI Beaumont Low, Federal..., in the U.S. District Court, Western District of Texas, Arturo Guillermo Nino (``Nino''), was...)) (``AECA''). Specifically, Nino was convicted of intentionally and knowingly conspiring with persons...

  15. Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Johansson, Michael A.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Glass, Gregory E.

    2009-01-01

    Background The mosquito-borne dengue viruses are a major public health problem throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Changes in temperature and precipitation have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle and may thus play a role in changing incidence levels. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a multiyear climate driver of local temperature and precipitation worldwide. Previous studies have reported varying degrees of association between ENSO and dengue incidence. Methods and Findings We analyzed the relationship between ENSO, local weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand using wavelet analysis to identify time- and frequency-specific association. In Puerto Rico, ENSO was transiently associated with temperature and dengue incidence on multiyear scales. However, only local precipitation and not temperature was associated with dengue on multiyear scales. In Thailand, ENSO was associated with both temperature and precipitation. Although precipitation was associated with dengue incidence, the association was nonstationary and likely spurious. In Mexico, no association between any of the variables was observed on the multiyear scale. Conclusions The evidence for a relationship between ENSO, climate, and dengue incidence presented here is weak. While multiyear climate variability may play a role in endemic interannual dengue dynamics, we did not find evidence of a strong, consistent relationship in any of the study areas. The role of ENSO may be obscured by local climate heterogeneity, insufficient data, randomly coincident outbreaks, and other, potentially stronger, intrinsic factors regulating transmission dynamics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:19918363

  16. A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka.

    PubMed

    Liyanage, Prasad; Tissera, Hasitha; Sewe, Maquins; Quam, Mikkel; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Palihawadana, Paba; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Louis, Valérie R; Tozan, Yesim; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-04

    Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka.

  17. Interannual variability of summertime aerosol optical depth over East Asia during 2000-2011: a potential influence from El Niño Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yikun; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-12-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to the rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, which motivates a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000-2011, a wave-like interannual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak-to-trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3-4 years. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations of meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with the enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA) which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, higher temperature and lower relative humidity are found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), therefore ENSO could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, the SAOD peaks over NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the development of ENSO during January-April is able to capture the interannual variability of SAOD over NCP during 2000-2011. This finding indicates a need to integrate the large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy.

  18. Season-dependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictability in a theoretical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Mu; Duan, Wansuo; Wang, Bin

    2007-05-01

    Most state-of-the-art climate models have difficulty in the prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) starting from preboreal spring seasons. The causes of this spring predictability barrier (SPB) remain elusive. With a theoretical ENSO system model, we investigate this controversial issue by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and by analyzing the behavior of initial error growth. The CNOPs are the errors in the initial states of ENSO events, which have the biggest impact on the uncertainties at the prediction time under proper physical constraints. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors associated with El Niño episodes depends remarkably on season with the fastest growth occurring during boreal spring in the onset phase. There also exist other kinds of initial errors, which have either somewhat smaller growth rates or neutral ones during spring. However, for La Niña events, even if initial errors are of CNOP-type, the errors grow without significant seasonal dependence. These findings suggest that the SPB in this model results from combined effects of three factors: the annual cycle of the mean state, the structure of El Niño, and the pattern of the initial errors. On the basis of the error tendency equations derived from the model, we addressed how the combination of the three factors causes the SPB and proposed a mechanism responsible for the error growth in the model ENSO events. Our results help in clarifying the role of the initial error pattern in SPB, which may provide a clue for explaining why SPB can be eliminated by improving initial conditions. The results also illustrate a theoretical basis for improving data assimilation in ENSO prediction.

  19. A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka

    PubMed Central

    Liyanage, Prasad; Tissera, Hasitha; Sewe, Maquins; Quam, Mikkel; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Palihawadana, Paba; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Louis, Valérie R.; Tozan, Yesim; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-01-01

    Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka. PMID:27827943

  20. A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Md. Kawser; Alam, Mohammad Samsul; Yousuf, Abu Hena Muhammad; Islam, Md. Monirul

    2016-04-01

    A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.

  1. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  2. Tolerance of Sponge Assemblages to Temperature Anomalies: Resilience and Proliferation of Sponges following the 1997–8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Kelmo, Francisco; Bell, James J.; Attrill, Martin J.

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs across the world are under threat from a range of stressors, and while there has been considerable focus on the impacts of these stressors on corals, far less is known about their effect on other reef organisms. The 1997–8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had notable and severe impacts on coral reefs worldwide, but not all reef organisms were negatively impacted by this large-scale event. Here we describe how the sponge fauna at Bahia, Brazil was influenced by the 1997–8 ENSO event. Sponge assemblages from three contrasting reef habitats (reef tops, walls and shallow banks) at four sites were assessed annually from 1995 to 2011. The within-habitat sponge diversity did not vary significantly across the study period; however, there was a significant increase in density in all habitats. Multivariate analyses revealed no significant difference in sponge assemblage composition (ANOSIM) between pre- and post-ENSO years for any of the habitats, suggesting that neither the 1997–8 nor any subsequent smaller ENSO events have had any measurable impact on the reef sponge assemblage. Importantly, this is in marked contrast to the results previously reported for a suite of other taxa (including corals, echinoderms, bryozoans, and ascidians), which all suffered mass mortalities as a result of the ENSO event. Our results suggest that of all reef taxa, sponges have the potential to be resilient to large-scale thermal stress events and we hypothesize that sponges might be less affected by projected increases in sea surface temperature compared to other major groups of reef organisms. PMID:24116109

  3. Increase in the potential predictability of the Arctic Oscillation via intensified teleconnection with ENSO after the mid-1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In

    2016-11-01

    This study examines why the seasonal prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has increased significantly since the mid-1990s in state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems in operation. This skill increase is primarily attributed to variability over the North Atlantic with an enhanced connection between the AO and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and AO depends primarily on low-frequency variability in the North Pacific driven by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, as represented by the Hawaiian sea level pressure (SLPHI) index. When the sign of the SLPHI index and that of the NINO3.4 index are out-of-phase (in-phase) with the variability center of ENSO shifted to the central Pacific (eastern Pacific), more intense (weaker) ENSO-AO teleconnection results. Linear barotropic model experiments with prescribed ENSO forcing and differing phase and intensity of SLPHI support the observed relationship in La Niña years, highlighting the important and independent role of the SLPHI variability as a modulator of the ENSO teleconnection to higher latitudes.

  4. The Ninos Especiales Outreach Training Project (NEOTP). Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruder, Mary Beth; And Others

    The Ninos Especiales Outreach Training Project was a 3-year federally funded project to provide information, training, and evaluation related to a culturally sensitive, family-focused model of early intervention services for infants with severe disabilities and their families of Puerto Rican heritage. Implementation occurred through three major…

  5. El Nino--An Example of Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Brien, James J.

    1978-01-01

    El Nino is a complex periodic oceanographic event that occurs off the west coast of South America, adversely affecting climate not only in the local area but in other regions of the world. There is evidence that the equatorial regions hold the key to predicting this economically destructive phenomenon. (Author/BB)

  6. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and mid-stratospheric tropical ozone trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Young, Paul J.; Wild, Oliver; Kinnison, Douglas E.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, the global ozone layer has started to show the first signs of recovery, but puzzlingly tropical mid-stratospheric ozone has decreased since the beginning of the 90s. This is a key region of the stratosphere where most ozone is produced. Previous studies have shown that interannual variability in the troposphere (e.g. El Nino-Southern Oscillation) can affect the lower stratosphere, both dynamics and composition. Here for the first time, we show how multidecadal internal climate variability - in the Pacific Ocean's sea surface temperatures (i.e. the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, IPO) - have an impact in mid-stratospheric tropical ozone, and account for the observed trends. We suggest a mechanism that involves dynamical (i.e. Brewer Dobson circulation) and chemical (i.e. ozone loss chemistry via NOy chemistry) processes to explain this IPO-ozone link. Understanding internally generated multidecadal variability in this region of the stratosphere is crucial to distinguish between forced and unforced signals and better describe ozone recovery.

  7. On the use of Historic Atmosphere-Lake-Level Relationships for Reconstructing Stable Oxygen Isotope-Based Paleohydrology in Southern CA.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirby, M. E.; Lund, S.; Poulsen, C.; Patterson, W.; Burnett, A.

    2002-12-01

    to large-scale ocean-atmosphere dynamics via El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In light of this observation, it is likely that dominant low-frequency climate modes (i.e., wet vs. dry; El Nino vs. La Nina) persist over centuries-to-millennia with higher frequency climate variation superimposed. If climate were to abruptly shift back to a dry climate mode (La Nina dominance), the socio-economic impact on Southern California would be staggering.

  8. Observed Influence of Amazon rainfall on the Atlantic ITCZ and Atlantic Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Wang, H.

    2007-05-01

    Most of previous studies on climate variabilities of the tropical Atlantic Ocean have been focused on remote and internal oceanic processes or atmosphere-ocean interaction. In comparison, relatively few studies have examined the influences from adjacent continents, especially the influence of rainfall over the South American continent. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily rain-rate dada, the QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and PIRATA buoy data, we have found that convection developed over the Amazonia appears to propagate eastward across the Atlantic and then into Africa. Such changes modulate the intensity and location of the convection within the Atlantic ITCZ and result in a zonal oscillation of the ITCZ between the west and east equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The eastward propagating disturbances appear to be an atmospheric Kelvin wave with a period of 6 to 7 days and a phase speed of around 12 m s-1. Such convectively coupled Kelvin wave is particularly strong during boreal spring and dominates the synoptic variations of the lower and upper troposphere winds. Our results further suggest that the interannual changes of these convective coupled Kelvin waves have an important influence on trigging the onset of Atlantic Ninos. In particular, anomalously late northward withdraw of the South American rainfall in boreal spring lead to stronger Kelvin wave activities and stronger westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. The latter triggers a change of the slope of the thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and induces sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Atlantic. These changes contribute to the onset of the Atlantic Nino in earlier boreal summer.

  9. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    PubMed

    Malone, Sparkle L; Staudhammer, Christina L; Oberbauer, Steven F; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G; Schedlbauer, Jessica L; Loescher, Henry W; Starr, Gregory

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  10. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Enhances CO2 Exchange Rates in Freshwater Marsh Ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Malone, Sparkle L.; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G.; Schedlbauer, Jessica L.; Loescher, Henry W.; Starr, Gregory

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (−11 to −110 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (−5 to −43.5 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (−16 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades. PMID:25521299

  11. Modulation of Atlantic Aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tian, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Wong, S.

    2010-01-01

    Much like the better-known EI Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale atmospheric phenomenon. The MJO involves periodic, systematic changes in the distribution of clouds and precipitation over the western Pacific and Indian oceans, along with differences in wind intensity over even more extensive areas, including the north and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The lead authors of this paper developed a sophisticated mathematical technique for mapping the spatial and temporal behavior of changes in the atmosphere produced by the MJO. In a previous paper, we applied this technique to search for modulation of airborne particle amount in the eastern hemisphere associated with the "wet" (cloudy) vs. "dry" phases of the MJO. The study used primarily AVHRR, MODIS, and TOMS satellite-retrieved aerosol amount, but concluded that other factors, such as cloud contamination of the satellite signals, probably dominated the observed variations. The current paper looks at MJO modulation of desert dust transport eastward across the Atlantic from northern Africa, a region much less subject to systematic cloud contamination than the eastern hemisphere areas studied previously. In this case, a distinct aerosol signal appears, showing that dust is transported westward much more effectively during the MJO phase that favors westward-flowing wind, and such transport is suppressed when the MJO reduces these winds. Aside form the significant achievement in identifying such an effect, the result implies that an important component of global dust transport can be predicted based on the phase of the MJO. As a consequence, the impact of airborne dust on storm development in the Atlantic, and on dust deposition downwind of the desert sources, can also be predicted and more accurately modeled.

  12. Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - 1997 Research Data Reveal Clues about El Nino's Influence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image displays wind measurements taken by the satellite-borne NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) during the last 10 days of May 1997, showing the relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere at the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino condition. The data have helped scientists confirm that the event began as an unusual weakening of the trade winds that preceded an increase in sea surface temperatures. The arrows represent wind speed and direction while the colors indicate sea surface temperature. The sea surface temperatures were measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, a joint mission of NASA and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The trade winds normally blow from east to west, but the small arrows in the center of the image show the winds have changed direction and are blowing in the opposite direction. The areas shown in red are above normal sea surface temperatures -- along the equator, off the west coast of the U.S., and along the west coast of Mexico. This image also shows an unusual low pressure system with cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation near the western North American coast. NSCAT also observed that winds associated with this circulation pattern branched off from the equator, bypassed Hawaii, and brought heat and moisture from the tropical ocean towards San Francisco, in what is often called the 'pineapple express.'

  13. A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1992-01-24

    This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance.

  14. Observation of El Nino by the Nimbus-7 SMMR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hwang, P. H.; Macmillan, D. S.; Fu, C. C.; Kim, S. T.; Han, Daesoo; Gloersen, P.

    1986-01-01

    The quality of Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) derived SST, water vapor, and windspeed are assessed, and these parameters are used to study the El Nino event of 1982-1983 in the equatorial Pacific region from 120 deg to the South American coast. The features of the anomaly fields for these parameters, and the connections between these fields, are discussed. Anomaly fields are found to be qualitatively consistent with outgoing longwave radiation anomaly fields and wind vector anomaly fields.

  15. Characteristics of extreme rainfall events in northwestern Peru during the 1982-1983 El Nino period

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldberg, R. A.; Tisnado, G. M.; Scofield, R. A.

    1987-01-01

    Histograms and contour maps describing the daily rainfall characteristics of a northwestern Peru area most severely affected by the 1982-1983 El Nino event were prepared from daily rainfall data obtained from 66 stations in this area during the El Nino event, and during the same 8-month intervals for the two years preceding and following the event. These data were analyzed, in conjunction with the anlysis of visible and IR satellite images, for cloud characteristics and structure. The results present a comparison of the rainfall characteristics as a function of elevation, geographic location, and the time of year for the El Nino and non-El Nino periods.

  16. El Nino Activity During MIS 5e in Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rein, B.; Sirocko, F.

    2004-12-01

    Oceanography and climate along the coast of Peru is fundamentally linked to ENSO variability with stronger lithic flux into the sea and reduced marine bioproductivity during El Nino events. A 19 m long piston core with laminated marine sediments has been recovered on the edge of the Peruvian shelf (12 03'S, 77 40W, 184 m waterdepth) during cruise Sonne-147 in 2000. We present the lower 6 meters of this core that cover the time between 100 to 130 kyr before the present (BP). SST has been estimated from alkenone analysis with a mean temporal resolution of 300 years. Color logging along the core at 2 mm intervals revealed high resolution proxy data (3 to 30 a) for the precipitation on the continent (fine-grained lithics) and marine bioproduction (photosynthesis pigments: chlorines, carotenoids). Proxy data show that a major change occurred around 123 kyr BP. Mean sedimentation rate which is largely controlled by lithics dropped from 40-70 cm/kyr to 18 cm/kyr after 123 kyr BP. Contemporaneously SST start to decline towards the early Glacial level that is reached between 118 to 116 ka during the time of glacial inception. We conclude that stronger El Nino floods occurred before 123 kyr BP and El Ninos were weaker during the second half of MIS 5e. The change to weaker ENSO activity in Peru is therewith roughly contemporaneous with the beginning cooling in Greenland.

  17. The effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on skin and skin-related diseases: a message from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Louise K; Davis, Mark D P

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex climate phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean at intervals of 2-7 years. The term refers to fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño [the warm phase of ENSO] and La Niña [the cool phase of ENSO]) and in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific basin (Southern Oscillation). This weather pattern is attributed with causing climate change in certain parts of the world and is associated with disease outbreaks. The question of how ENSO affects skin and skin-related disease is relatively unanswered. We aimed to review the literature describing the effects of this complex weather pattern on skin. El Niño has been associated with increases in the occurrence of actinic keratosis, tinea, pityriasis versicolor, miliaria, folliculitis, rosacea, dermatitis by Paederus irritans and Paederus sabaeus, and certain vector-borne and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, leishmaniasis, Chagas' disease, Barmah Forest virus, and leptospirosis, and with decreases in the occurrence of dermatitis, scabies, psoriasis, and papular urticaria. La Niña has been associated with increases in the occurrence of varicella, hand, foot, and mouth disease, and Ross River virus (in certain areas), and decreases in viral warts and leishmaniasis. Reports on the effects of ENSO on skin and skin-related disease are limited, and more studies could be helpful in the future.

  18. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.

    2007-08-01

    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  19. Late Pleistocene evolution of the Rhine-Meuse system in the southern North Sea basin: imprints of climate change, sea-level oscillation and glacio-isostacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Busschers, F. S.; Kasse, C.; van Balen, R. T.; Vandenberghe, J.; Cohen, K. M.; Weerts, H. J. T.; Wallinga, J.; Johns, C.; Cleveringa, P.; Bunnik, F. P. M.

    2007-12-01

    High-resolution continuous core material, geophysical measurements, and hundreds of archived core descriptions enabled to identify 13 Late Pleistocene Rhine-Meuse sedimentary units in the infill of the southern part of the North Sea basin (the Netherlands, northwestern Europe). This sediment record and a large set of Optical Stimulated Luminescence dates, 14C dates and biostratigraphical data, allowed to establish detailed relationships between climate change, sea-level oscillation, glaciation history and the sedimentary development of the Rhine fluvial system during the last glacial cycle (Marine Isotope Stages 5e-2, Eemian-Weichselian). A well-preserved Eemian sediment record was encountered as the infill of a Late Saalian (MIS6) subglacial basin. Part of this record reflects groundwater rise controlled (fine-grained) sedimentation as a result of postglacial (early) Eemian sea-level rise. It shows strong analogy to developments known from the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta. Outside of the glacial depressions near coastal deposits are only fragmentarily preserved. The Early Glacial Rhine sediment record is dominated by organic debris and peat layers, marking landscape stability and low fluvial activity. Part of this record may have been formed under near coastal conditions. Significant amounts of reworked marine biomarkers in the lag-deposits of Early Pleniglacial (MIS4) fluvial systems indicate that this period is characterized by extensive reworking of older (MIS5) near-coastal sediments. Despite the marked Early Pleniglacial climatic cooling, input of new sediment from the drainage basin was relatively low, a feature that is related to the presence of regolith protective relic soil complexes in the basin. During the early Middle Pleniglacial, a major Rhine avulsion indicates the system was in an aggrading mode and that sediment supply into the lower reaches of the Rhine had strongly increased. This increase in sediment supply coincided with the timing of major

  20. World Encircling Tectonic Vortex Street - Geostreams Revisited: The Southern Ring Current EM Plasma-Tectonic Coupling in the Western Pacific Rim

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leybourne, Bruce; Smoot, Christian; Longhinos, Biju

    2014-05-01

    Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) coupling to south polar magnetic ring currents transfers induction energy to the Southern Geostream ringing Antarctica and underlying its encircling mid-ocean ridge structure. Magnetic reconnection between the southward interplanetary magnetic field and the magnetic field of the earth is the primary energy transfer mechanism between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. Induced telluric currents focused within joule spikes along Geostreams heat the southern Pacific. Alignment of the Australian Antarctic Discordance to other tectonic vortexes along the Western Pacific Rim, provide electrical connections to Earths core that modulate global telluric currents. The Banda Sea Triple Junction, a mantle vortex north of Australia, and the Lake Baikal Continental Rift vortex in the northern hemisphere modulate atmospheric Jetstream patterns gravitationally linked to internal density oscillations induced by these telluric currents. These telluric currents are driven by solar magnetic power, rotation and orbital dynamics. A solar rotation 40 day power spectrum in polarity controls north-south migration of earthquakes along the Western Pacific Rim and manifest as the Madden Julian Oscillation a well-documented climate cycle. Solar plasma turbulence cycles related to Hale flares trigger El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO's), while solar magnetic field strength frequencies dominate global warming and cooling trends indexed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These Pacific climate anomalies are solar-electro-tectonically modulated via coupling to tropical geostream vortex streets. Particularly the section along the Central Pacific Megatrend connecting the Banda Sea Triple Junction (up welling mantle vortex) north of Australia with the Easter Island & Juan Fernandez twin rotating micro-plates (twin down welling mantle vortexes) along the East Pacific Rise modulating ENSO. Solar eruptions also enhance the equatorial ring current located

  1. Evaluation of two GCMs in simulating rainfall inter-annual variability over Southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.; Gutowski, William J.; Tadross, Mark A.

    2016-02-01

    We evaluate the performance of two global circulation models (GCMs) over Southern Africa, as part of the efforts to improve the skill of seasonal forecast from a multi-model ensemble system over the region. The two GCMs evaluated in the study are the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3). The study analyzed 30-year climate simulations from the models and compared the results with those from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. The evaluation focused on how well the models simulate circulation features, seasonal variation of temperature and rainfall, and the inter-annual rainfall and circulations during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The study also investigated the relationship between the regional rainfall from the models and global sea surface temperature (SST) during the El Niño and La Niña years. The results show that both GCMs simulate the circulation features and the seasonal cycles of rainfall and temperature fairly well. The location and magnitude of maxima and minima in surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP), and rainfall fields are well reproduced. The maximum error in the simulated temperature fields is about 2 °, 4 mb in SLP and 8 mm/day in rainfall. However, CAM3 shows a major bias in simulating the summer rainfall; it simulates the maximum rainfall along the western part of Southern Africa, instead of the eastern part. The phase of the seasonal cycles is well reproduced, but the amplitude is underestimated over the Western Cape. Both CAM3 and HadAM3 give reasonable simulations of significant relationship between the regional rainfall and SST over the Nino 3.4 region and show that ENSO strongly drives the climate of Southern Africa. Hence, the model simulations could contribute to understanding the climate of the region and improve seasonal forecasts over Southern Africa.

  2. The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar

    2016-09-01

    The leading modes of Sea Surface Temperature variability in the Southern Ocean on decadal and even larger time scales are analysed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and observations. The analysis is based on Empirical Orthogonal Function modes of the CMIP5 model super ensemble. We compare the modes from the CMIP5 super ensemble against several simple null hypotheses, such as isotropic diffusion (red noise) and a Slab Ocean model, to investigate the sources of decadal variability and the physical processes affecting the characteristics of the modes. The results show three main modes in the Southern Ocean: the first and most dominant mode on interannual to decadal time scales is an annular mode with largest amplitudes in the Pacific, which is strongly related to atmospheric forcing by the Southern Annular Mode and El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second mode is an almost basin wide monopole pattern, which has pronounced multi-decadal and longer time scales variability. It is firstly inducted by the Wave-3 patterns in the atmosphere and further developed via ocean dynamics. The third mode is a dipole pattern in the southern Pacific that has a pronounced peak in the power spectrum at multi-decadal time scales. All three leading modes found in the CMIP5 super model have distinct patterns and time scale behaviour that can not be explained by simple stochastic null hypothesis, thus all three leading modes are ocean-atmosphere coupled modes and are likely to be substantially influenced or driven by ocean dynamical processes.

  3. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Returns to Near Normal State, Mar, 14, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather

  4. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite shows El Nino-related Sea Surface Height, Mar, 14, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather

  5. Spatial Correlations of Anomalies of Tropospheric Temperature and Water Vapor, Cloud Cover, and OLR with the El Nino Index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena; Lee, Jae N.

    2014-01-01

    In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.

  6. Southern Tibetan Plateau ice core δ18O reflects abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation in the late 1970s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Jing; Risi, Camille; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; He, You; Xu, Baiqing

    2016-01-01

    Ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau provide high-resolution records of changes in the snow and ice isotopic composition. In the monsoon sector of southern Tibetan Plateau, their climatic interpretation has been controversial. Here, we present a new high-resolution δ18O record obtained from 2206 measurements performed at 2-3 cm depth resolution along a 55.1 m depth ice core retrieved from the Noijinkansang glacier (NK, 5950 m a.s.l.) that spans the period from 1864 to 2006 AD. The data are characterized by high δ18O values in the nineteenth century, 1910s and 1960s, followed by a drop in the late 1970s and a recent increasing trend. The comparison with regional meteorological data and with a simulation performed with the LMDZiso general circulation model leads to the attribution of the abrupt shift in the late 1970s predominantly to changes in regional atmospheric circulation, together with the impact of atmospheric temperature change. Correlation analyses suggest that the large-scale modes of variability (PDO and ENSO, i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation) play important roles in modulating NK δ18O changes. The NK δ18O minimum at the end of the 1970s coincides with a PDO phase shift, an inflexion point of the zonal index (representing the overall intensity of the surface westerly anomalies over middle latitudes) as well as ENSO, implying interdecadal modulation of the influence of the PDO/ENSO on the Indian monsoon on southern TP precipitation δ18O. While convective activity above North India controls the intra-seasonal variability of precipitation δ18O in southern TP, other processes associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation act at the inter-annual scale.

  7. A View from Space: Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino and La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    After the last extreme El Nino in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Nino on record. The 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino will be depicted from the unique vantage point provided by these space-based observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Nino and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.

  8. A View From Space: Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino and La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio

    1999-01-01

    After the last extreme El Nino in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Nino on record. The 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface wind, ocean color, and precipitation, Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observation in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino will be depicted from the unique vantage point provided by these space-based observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Nino and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.

  9. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 23, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 23, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool associated with the El Nino has returned to the volume it was in mid-September after dropping to a temporary low at the beginning of October. The sea surface elevation just north of the El Nino warm pool continues to drop (purple area), enhancing the eastward flowing North Equatorial Counter Current. The intensification of this current is another tell-tale sign of the El Nino phenomenon. This flow contributes to the rise in sea level along the western coasts of the Americas that will progress towards both the north and south poles over the next several months. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70- 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of

  10. The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.

    2011-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

  11. Effects of the 2004 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Froidevaux, L.; Read, W. G.; Levelt, P. F.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2007-01-01

    The global effects of the 2004 El Nino on tropospheric ozone and H2O based on Aura OM1 and MLS measurements are analyzed. Although it was a weak El Nino from a historical perspective, it produced significant changes in these parameters in tropical latitudes. Tropospheric ozone increased by 10-20% over most of the western Pacific region and decreased by about the same amount over the eastern Pacific region. H2O in the upper troposphere showed similar changes but with opposite sign. These zonal changes in tropospheric ozone and H2O are caused by the eastward shift in the Walker circulation in the tropical pacific region during El Nino. For the 2004 El Nino, biomass burning did not have a significant effect on the ozone budget in the troposphere unlike the 1997 El Nino. Zonally averaged tropospheric column ozone did not change significantly either globally or over the tropical and subtropical latitudes.

  12. The spectral details of observed and simulated short-term water vapor feedbacks of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, F.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.

    2015-12-01

    Radiative kernel method has been validated and widely used in the study of climate feedbacks. This study uses spectrally resolved longwave radiative kernels to examine the short-term water vapor feedbacks associated with the ENSO cycles. Using a 500-year GFDL CM3 and a 100-year NCAR CCSM4 pre-industry control simulation, we have constructed two sets of longwave spectral radiative kernels. We then composite El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-neutral states and estimate the water vapor feedbacks associated with the El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO cycles in both simulations. Similar analysis is also applied to 35-year (1979-2014) ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis data, which is deemed as observational results here. When modeled and observed broadband feedbacks are compared to each other, they show similar geographic patterns but with noticeable discrepancies in the contrast between the tropics and extra-tropics. Especially, in El Niño phase, the feedback estimated from reanalysis is much greater than those from the model simulations. Considering the observational data span, we carry out a sensitivity test to explore the variability of feedback-deriving using 35-year data. To do so, we calculate the water vapor feedback within every 35-year segment of the GFDL CM3 control run by two methods: one is to composite El Nino or La Nina phases as mentioned above and the other is to regressing the TOA flux perturbation caused by water vapor change (δR_H­2O) against the global-mean surface temperature a­­­­nomaly. We find that the short-term feedback strengths derived from composite method can change considerably from one segment to another segment, while the feedbacks by regression method are less sensitive to the choice of segment and their strengths are also much smaller than those from composite analysis. This study suggests that caution is warranted in order to infer long-term feedbacks from a few decades of observations. When spectral details of the global-mean feedbacks

  13. Coolness in the tropical Pacific during an El Nino episode

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Ming-Dah

    1994-01-01

    The response of radiation budgets to changes in water vapor and clouds in an El Nino episode is investigated using the analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite-derived clouds and the earth radiation budgets for the tropical Pacific (30 deg N-30 deg S, 100 deg E-100 deg W). Analyses are performed for April 1985 and April 1987. The former is a non-El Nino year and the latter is an El Nino year. Compared to April 1985, when the SST over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is approximately 2 C lower, the high-level cloudiness in April 1987 increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Corresponding to the increase in cloudiness, the outgoing longwave radiation and the net downward solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere decrease. The patterns of these changes are reversed in the western tropical Pacific and the Northern Hemispheric (NH) subsidence region centered at approximately 20 deg N, indicating an eastward shift of the convection center from the maritime continents to the central equatorial Pacific and a strengthened NH Hadley circulation. The earth-atmosphere system in the region receives less radiative energy by 4 W/sq m in the warmer month of April 1987 than in the month of April 1985, which is primarily caused by a reduced atmospheric clear sky greenhouse effect in the NH tropical Pacific in April 1987. Clouds have strong effects on both the IR and solar radiation, but the net effect on the radiation budget at the top of the atmopshere changes only slightly between April 1985 and April 1987. The results are consistent with Lindzen's hypothesis that reduced upper-tropospheric water vapor in the vicinity of the enhanced convection region produces cooling that counteracts warming in the Tropics.

  14. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - June 25, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on June 25, 1997 and provides more convincing information that the weather-disrupting phenomenon known as El Nino is back and getting stronger. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it s about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70-85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the presence of the early indications of El Nino conditions.

  15. Coolness in the tropical Pacific during an El Nino episode

    SciTech Connect

    Chou, M.

    1994-11-01

    The response of radiation budgets to changes in water vapor and clouds in an El Nino episode is investigated using the analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite-derived clouds and the earth radiation budgets for the tropical Pacific (30 deg N-30 deg S, 100 deg E-100 deg W). Analyses are performed for April 1985 and April 1987. The former is a non-El Nino year and the latter is an El Nino year. Compared to April 1985, when the SST over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is approximately 2 C lower, the high-level cloudiness in April 1987 increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Corresponding to the increase in cloudiness, the outgoing longwave radiation and the net downward solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere decrease. The patterns of these changes are reversed in the western tropical Pacific and the Northern Hemispheric (NH) subsidence region centered at approximately 20 deg N, indicating an eastward shift of the convection center from the maritime continents to the central equatorial Pacific and a strengthened NH Hadley circulation. The earth-atmosphere system in the region receives less radiative energy by 4 W/sq m in the warmer month of April 1987 than in the month of April 1985, which is primarily caused by a reduced atmospheric clear sky greenhouse effect in the NH tropical Pacific in April 1987. Clouds have strong effects on both the IR and solar radiation, but the net effect on the radiation budget at the top of the atmopshere changes only slightly between April 1985 and April 1987. The results are consistent with Lindzen`s hypothesis that reduced upper-tropospheric water vapor in the vicinity of the enhanced convection region produces cooling that counteracts warming in the Tropics.

  16. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - March thru June, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    These four views of the Pacific Ocean were produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The images show sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions from March 1997 through June 1997. This evolutionary view is providing oceanographers with more convincing information that the weather-disrupting phenomenon known as El Nino is back and getting stronger. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it s about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70-85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the presence of the early indications of El Nino conditions.

  17. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 3, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 3, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool in tropical Pacific resulting from El Nino seems to have stabilized. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 and 30 C (70 to 85 F), carries the amount of heat equal to 100 times the amount of fossil fuel energy consumed by the entire U.S. population during one year. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an advisory

  18. El Nino and the Global Ocean Observing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David

    1999-01-01

    Until a decade ago, an often-quoted expression in oceanography is that very few observations are recorded throughout the ocean. Now, the sentiment is no longer valid in the uppermost 10% of the tropical Pacific Ocean nor at the surface of the global ocean. One of the remarkable legacies of the 1985-1994 Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is an in situ marine meteorological and upper oceanographic measurement array throughout the equatorial Pacific to monitor the development and maintenance of El Nino episodes. The TOGA Observing System, which initially consisted of moored- and drifting-buoy arrays, a network of commercial ships, and coastal and island stations, now includes a constellation of satellites and data-assimilating models to simulate subsurface oceanographic conditions. The El Nino and La Nina tropical Pacific Ocean observing system represents the initial phase of an integrated global ocean observing system. Remarkable improvements have been made in ocean model simulation of subsurface currents, but some problems persist. For example, the simulation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) remains an important challenge in the 2S-2N Pacific equatorial wave guide. During El Nino the SEC at the equator is reduced and sometimes the direction is reversed, becoming eastward. Both conditions allow warm water stored in the western Pacific to invade the eastern region, creating an El Nino episode. Assimilation of data is a tenet of faith to correct simulation errors caused by deficiencies in surface fluxes (especially wind stress) and parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes. In the first of two numerical experiments, the Pacific SEC was simulated with and without assimilation of subsurface temperature data. Along the equator, a very weak SEC occurred throughout the eastern Pacific, independent of assimilation of data. However, as displayed in the diagram, in the western Pacific there was no satisfactory agreement between the two

  19. Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric CO2 to global surface temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leggett, L. M. W.; Ball, D. A.

    2015-10-01

    A significant difference, now of some 16 years' duration, has been shown to exist between the observed global surface temperature trend and that expected from the majority of climate simulations. For its own sake, and to enable better climate prediction for policy use, the reasons behind this mismatch need to be better understood. While an increasing number of possible causes have been proposed, the candidate causes have not yet converged. With this background, this paper reinvestigates the relationship between change in the level of CO2 and two of the major climate variables, atmospheric temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using time-series analysis in the form of dynamic regression modelling with autocorrelation correction, it is shown that first-difference CO2 leads temperature and that there is a highly statistically significant correlation between first-difference CO2 and temperature. Further, a correlation is found for second-difference CO2 with the Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric-pressure component of ENSO. This paper also shows that both these correlations display Granger causality. It is shown that the first-difference CO2 and temperature model shows no trend mismatch in recent years. These results may contribute to the prediction of future trends for global temperature and ENSO. Interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is standardly attributed to variability in the carbon sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere. The terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is created by the difference between photosynthesis and respiration (net primary productivity): a major way of measuring global terrestrial photosynthesis is by means of satellite measurements of vegetation reflectance, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In a preliminary analysis, this study finds a close correlation between an increasing NDVI and the increasing climate model/temperature mismatch (as quantified by the difference

  20. Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - December, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image shows differences in atmospheric water vapor relative to a normal (average) year in the Earth's upper troposphere about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface. The measurements were taken by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument aboard NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). These data, collected in late December 1997, show higher than normal levels of water vapor (red) over the central and eastern Pacific which indicates the presence of an El Nino condition. At the same time, the western Pacific (blue) is much drier than normal. The unusually moist air above the central and eastern Pacific is a consequence of the much warmer-than-normal ocean waters which occur during El Nino. Warmer water evaporates at a higher rate and the resulting warm moist air rises and forms tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. These data show significant increases in the amount of atmospheric moisture off the coast of Peru and Ecuador since measurements were made in November 1997. The maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal and these high ocean temperatures are likely responsible for an increase in evaporation and the subsequent rise in humidity.

  1. TOPEX El Nino/La Nina - Entire Pacific is out of Whack, April 7, 1999

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1999-01-01

    New sea surface height measurements from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite show that the sea level and temperature of the entire Pacific is 'out of balance,' including a large area of abnormally cool water along the west coast of North America that scientists say will influence regional weather patterns along the west coast of the Americas this summer. Southern California's seasonal 'June gloom' weather, caused by a marine layer that traps smog over the Los Angeles basin, may linger throughout the summer as a result, according to oceanographer Dr. William Patzert of JPL. 'Our data certainly show that the unusual oceanic climatic conditions that gave rise to El Nino and La Nina are not returning to a normal state.' he said. 'Our planet's climate system continues to exhibit rather wild behavior. These large warm and cold, high and low sea levels are slow-developing and long-lasting, and will certainly influence global climate and weather for the coming summer and into next fall.' The unusually cool water (areas of lower sea level shown in blue and purple) extends from the Gulf of Alaska along the North American coast, sweeping south-westward from Baja California, where it merges with the remnants of La Nina. The La Nina phenomenon's cool, lower sea levels across the equator continue to weaken and break into (purple) patches. The northwest Pacific continues to be warmer than normal, though the variations from normal are not as great as in recent months. Areas where the Pacific Ocean is normal appear in green. The data represented in the image were collected from May 12-22.

    TOPEX/Poseidon's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1998-99 La Nina and the 1997-98 El Nino because the satellite's altimeter measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the purple areas are about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. The white

  2. Mechanisms Controlling the Interannual Variation of Mixed Layer Temperature Averaged over the Nino-3 Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Seung-Bum; Lee, Tong; Fukumori, Ichiro

    2007-01-01

    The present study examines processes governing the interannual variation of MLT in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Processes controlling the interannual variation of mixed layer temperature (MLT) averaged over the Nino-3 domain (5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg-90 deg W) are studied using an ocean data assimilation product that covers the period of 1993-2003. The overall balance is such that surface heat flux opposes the MLT change but horizontal advection and subsurface processes assist the change. Advective tendencies are estimated here as the temperature fluxes through the domain's boundaries, with the boundary temperature referenced to the domain-averaged temperature to remove the dependence on temperature scale. This allows the authors to characterize external advective processes that warm or cool the water within the domain as a whole. The zonal advective tendency is caused primarily by large-scale advection of warm-pool water through the western boundary of the domain. The meridional advective tendency is contributed to mostly by Ekman current advecting large-scale temperature anomalies through the southern boundary of the domain. Unlike many previous studies, the subsurface processes that consist of vertical mixing and entrainment are explicitly evaluated. In particular, a rigorous method to estimate entrainment allows an exact budget closure. The vertical mixing across the mixed layer (ML) base has a contribution in phase with the MLT change. The entrainment tendency due to the temporal change in ML depth is negligible compared to other subsurface processes. The entrainment tendency by vertical advection across the ML base is dominated by large-scale changes in upwelling and the temperature of upwelling water. Tropical instability waves (TIWs) result in smaller-scale vertical advection that warms the domain during La Nina cooling events. However, such a warming tendency is overwhelmed by the cooling tendency associated with the large-scale upwelling by a factor of

  3. Assessing the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño event on multi-satellite soil moisture over the Southern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard; Depoorter, Mathieu; Miralles, Diego

    2016-04-01

    In the past, El Niño has severely invigorated drought conditions over large parts of the Southern Hemisphere causing enormous ecological and socio-economic damage (e.g., agricultural loss, water scarcity, bush fires). Accurate assessments of its impacts are therefore crucial for improving seasonal predictions that can help to prevent and mitigate these consequences. However, the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on drought conditions over land are not yet well understood, partly because of the difficulty of linking sea surface temperature anomalies to regional precipitation anomalies over land, partly because it is not straightforward to disentangle the ENSO signal from other seasonal and climate variability in the data. Here, we present a new statistical method for assessing the impact of ENSO on drought conditions over land, based on the relationship between the NINO3.4 ENSO index and ESA CCI long-term satellite observations of soil moisture. The new method is able to clearly separate the ENSO signal from other short-term and long-term variability in the soil moisture data, both in time and space. In the presentation we will show how the recent 2015/2016 El Niño has affected soil moisture in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we will show how the statistical method can be coupled to ENSO forecasts to predict the impact of future El Niño events on drought conditions up to 9 months ahead.

  4. Comparison of 1997 and 2015 El-Nino on Meteorological and Atmospheric Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, Lindsey; Singh, Ramesh

    2016-07-01

    This paper investigates the impact of dramatic 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El-Nino on meteorological and atmospheric parameters globally using satellite and ground observations. We have considered meteorological parameters (rainfall, air temperature, surface pressure, winds, water vapor) and atmospheric parameters (air temperature, total ozone column). Our detailed analysis shows pronounced changes in some of meteorological and atmospheric parameters in different parts of the world at different time. Further, we have carried out comparison of some of the various meteorological and atmospheric parameters associated with El-Nino of 1997-1998 and 20015-2016, detrimental impact of 2015-2016 El-Nino is observed.

  5. TOPEX/El Nino Watch- September 20, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on September 20, 1997 and provides more convincing information that the weather-disrupting phenomenon known as El Nino is back and getting stronger. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters ( 6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70-85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the presence of the early indications of El Nino conditions.

    For more information, please visit the TOPEX/Poseidon project web page

  6. A simple atmospheric model of relevance to El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zebiak, S. E.

    1982-01-01

    A linear, equatorial, beta-plane atmosphere model with heating parameterized in terms of SST anomalies is developed and used to simulate surface wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during El Nino. The model results show some similarity to observations with respect to movement of the major convergence zones, and equatorial wind anomaly patterns in the central and western Pacific. There is considerable discrepancy between the model results and observations in much of the eastern Pacific, especially in the South Pacific high and southeast trades regions. The results suggest that some additional mechanisms may be responsible for these apparently sizeable and spatially coherent fluctuations, but that a direct link between wind anomalies and SST anomalies may indeed exist in much of the equatorial Pacific.

  7. El Nino/la Nina Transition In The Equatorial Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, M.; Turk, D.; McPhadden, Mike; Lagerloef, G.; Asanuma, I.

    A massive bloom of phytoplankton in the normally oligotrophic Western Pacific was the first manifestation of the termination of the 1997-1998 El Nino, by most measures, the strongest on record. This bloom represented a 4-fold increase in the background chlorophyll distribution, as viewed by the Sea-Viewing, Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS). A combination of physical and bio-optical observations from satellites, moored buoys, and ships lead to the conclusion that this bloom was a direct result of the interaction of surface currents with a series of island atolls (Kiribati) that induced strong vertical mixing and subsequent downstream advection of waters rich in nutrients. The increase in phytoplankton concentration represents a lower limit to a dramatically increased level of exported carbon from the normally biologically poor western Pacific region, and is a novel observation of topographic influences which are not normally resolved by most models of equatorial ocean dynamics.

  8. On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 2: The effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and contributions of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieder, H. E.; Frossard, L.; Ribatet, M.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Di Rocco, S.; Davison, A. C.; Peter, T.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

    2013-01-01

    We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30° and 60° north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichón might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982-1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and

  9. El Nino, La Nina and VLBI Measured LOD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, Thomas A.; Gipson, J. M.; Ma, C.

    1998-01-01

    VLBI is one of the most important techniques for measuring Earth orientation parameters (EOP), and is unique in its ability to make high accuracy measurements of UT1, and its time derivative, which is related to changes in the length of day, conventionally called LOD. These measurements of EOP give constraints on geophysical models of the solid-Earth, atmosphere and oceans. Changes in EOP are due either to external torques from gravitational forces, or to the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth, atmosphere and oceans. The effect of the external torques is strictly harmonic and nature, and is therefore easy to remove. We analyze an LOD time series derived from VLBI measurements with the goal of comparing this to predictions from AAM, and various ENSO indices. Previous work by ourselves and other investigators demonstrated a high degree of coherence between atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and EOP. We continue to see this. As the angular momentum of the atmosphere increases, the rate of rotation of the Earth decreases, and vice versa. The signature of the ENSO is particularly strong. At the peak of the 1982-83 El Nino increased LOD by almost 1 ms. This was subsequently followed by a reduction in LOD of 0.75 ms. At its peak, in February of 1998, the 1997-98 El Nino increased LOD by 0.8 msec. As predicted at the 1998 Spring AGU, this has been followed by an abrupt decrease in LOD which is currently -0.4 ms. At this time (August, 1998) the current ENSO continues to develop in new and unexpected ways. We plan to update our analysis with all data available prior to the Fall AGU.

  10. Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

    2013-01-01

    Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

  11. Neurodynamic oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Espinosa, Ismael; Gonzalez, Hortensia; Quiza, Jorge; Gonazalez, J. Jesus; Arroyo, Ruben; Lara, Ritaluz

    1995-01-01

    Oscillation of electrical activity has been found in many nervous systems, from invertebrates to vertebrates including man. There exists experimental evidence of very simple circuits with the capability of oscillation. Neurons with intrinsic oscillation have been found and also neural circuits where oscillation is a property of the network. These two types of oscillations coexist in many instances. It is nowadays hypothesized that behind synchronization and oscillation there is a system of coupled oscillators responsible for activities that range from locomotion and feature binding in vision to control of sleep and circadian rhythms. The huge knowledge that has been acquired on oscillators from the times of Lord Rayleigh has made the simulation of neural oscillators a very active endeavor. This has been enhanced with more recent physiological findings about small neural circuits by means of intracellular and extracellular recordings as well as imaging methods. The future of this interdisciplinary field looks very promising; some researchers are going into quantum mechanics with the idea of trying to provide a quantum description of the brain. In this work we describe some simulations using neuron models by means of which we form simple neural networks that have the capability of oscillation. We analyze the oscillatory activity with root locus method, cross-correlation histograms, and phase planes. In the more complicated neural network models there is the possibility of chaotic oscillatory activity and we study that by means of Lyapunov exponents. The companion paper shows an example of that kind.

  12. El Nino - La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak`s model and observed with satellite or in situ data. Part I: Model data comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Perigaud C.; Dewitte, B.

    1996-01-01

    The Zebiak and Cane model is used in its {open_quotes}uncoupled mode,{close_quotes} meaning that the oceanic model component is driven by the Florida State University (FSU) wind stress anomalies over 1980-93 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies, and these are used in the atmospheric model component to generate wind anomalies. Simulations are compared with data derived from FSU winds, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud convection, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer SST, Geosat sea level, 20{degrees}C isotherm depth derived from an expendable bathythermograph, and current velocities estimated from drifters or current-meter moorings. Forced by the simulated SST, the atmospheric model is fairly successful in reproducing the observed westerlies during El Nino events. The model fails to simulate the easterlies during La Nina 1988. The simulated forcing of the atmosphere is in very poor agreement with the heating derived from cloud convection data. Similarly, the model is fairly successful in reproducing the warm anomalies during El Nino events. However, it fails to simulate the observed cold anomalies. Simulated variations of thermocline depth agree reasonably well with observations. The model simulates zonal current anomalies that are reversing at a dominant 9-month frequency. Projecting altimetric observations on Kelvin and Rossby waves provides an estimate of zonal current anomalies, which is consistent with the ones derived from drifters or from current meter moorings. Unlike the simulated ones, the observed zonal current anomalies reverse from eastward during El Nino events to westward during La Nina events. The simulated 9-month oscillations correspond to a resonant mode of the basin. They can be suppressed by cancelling the wave reflection at the boundaries, or they can be attenuated by increasing the friction in the ocean model. 58 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Gu, Guojun

    2003-01-01

    This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

  14. Impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on Atmospheric Circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The 1997-1998 E1 Nino created significant anomalies in global circulation patterns. We monitored the E1 Nino event, using TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) data, as part of the Laboratory for Atmospheres TOVS Pathfinder Data Set. TOVS has flown on the NOAA operational polar orbiting satellites from November 1978 to present. We have analyzed data from NOAA 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14, covering January 1985 to the present, using a consistent processing scheme. The data set contains 2-4 times daily global fields of land/ocean surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature-moisture profiles, cloud top pressure and fractional cloud cover, OLR and clear sky Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and precipitation estimate. We have generated anomalies of all fields compared to a 12 year climatology of our data set, covering the period 1985-1996. Anomalies during the current E1 Nino were compared to those of other E1 Nino-La Nina episodes since 1985, with particular attention paid to tropical anomalies of surface skin and air temperature, precipitation, upper tropospheric water vapor, OLR, and clear sky OLR. All the El Nino-La Nina events produce similar patterns, but the magnitude of the current anomalies in all fields is considerably greater than those during the previous weaker surface skin temperature anomaly episodes. Significant extra-tropical anomalies were found during the current E1 Nino as well.

  15. Modelled rainfall skill assessment against a 1000-year time/space isotope dendro-climatology for southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodborne, Stephan; Hall, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoclimate reconstruction using isotopic analysis of tree growth increments has yielded a 1000-year record of rainfall variability in southern Africa. Isotope dendro-climatology reconstructions from baobab trees (Adansonia digitata) provide evidence for rainfall variability from the arid Namib Desert and the Limpopo River Valley. Isotopic analysis of a museum specimen of a yellowwood tree (Podocarps falcatus) yields another record from the southwestern part of the subcontinent. Combined with the limited classic denro-climatologies available in the region these records yield palaeo-rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones as well as the hyper-arid zone over the last 1000 years. Coherent shifts in all of the records indicate synoptic changes in the westerlies, the inter-tropical convergence zone, and the Congo air boundary. The most substantial rainfall shift takes place at about 1600 CE at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Another distinctive feature of the record is a widespread phenomenon that occurs shortly after 1810 CE that in southern Africa corresponds with a widespread social upheaval known as the Difequane or Mfekane. Large scale forcing of the system includes sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The Little Ice Age and Mfekane climate shifts result from different forcing mechanisms, and the rainfall response in the different regions at these times do not have a fixed phase relationship. This complexity provides a good scenario to test climate models. A first order (wetter versus drier) comparison between each of the tree records and a 1000-year palaeoclimate model simulation for the Little Ice Age and Mfekane transitions demonstrates a generally good correspondence.

  16. Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

  17. Climatic change and quasi-oscillations in central-west Argentina summer precipitation: main features and coherent behaviour with southern African region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compagnucci, R. H.; Agosta, E. A.; Vargas, W. M.

    Summer rainfall variability (October to March) shows inter-annual to multi-decadal fluctuations over a vast area of subtropical Argentina between 28°S-38°S and 65°W-70°W. Statistically significant oscillations of quasi-period in the bands of 18-21, 6, 4 and 2 years can be found throughout the region and intra-regionally, though the latter are variable. The lower frequency variation produces alternating episodes of above and below normal rainfall each lasting roughly 9 years. This quasi-fluctuation appears to be shared with the summer rainfall region of South Africa and were in-phase related one another until mid-1970s. The teleconnection between both subtropical regions could be generated by an atmospheric-oceanic bridge through the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), particularly those of the equatorial-tropical South Atlantic. From mid-1970s, the alternating wet and dry pattern has been interrupted in the Argentine region producing the longest, as yet unfinished, wet spell of the century. Thus, a significant change of the long-term variation was observed around 1977 toward lower frequencies. Since then the statistical model that explains more than 89% of the variance of the series until 1977, diverges from the observed values in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition the Yamamoto statistical index, employed to detect a climatic jump, reaches its major value in 1973 at the beginning of the current long wet spell. Therefore the change could be located between 1973 and 1977. Application of the t-student's test gives significant differences of mean values for pre-1977 and post-1977 sub-samples from both individual time series and the regional index series. The spectral analysis also shows changes in energy bands in concordance with the features of the change that occurred from mid-1970s. The change gives rise to a significant increment of more than 20% in average of normal rainfall over the region. Conversely, a drought between mid-1980s and the 1990s has been

  18. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen

    2010-07-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  19. Impact of Indonesian forest fires during the 1997 El Nino on aerosol distribution and clear sky aerosol aradiatikve forcing over the Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parameswaran, K.; Nair, S.; Rejeev, K.

    The El Nino event of 1997-1998 followed by the La Nina in 1998-1999 was the strongest of its kind encountered in the 20t h century. Associated with this event Indonesia experienced severe drought leading to large forest fires. Large aerosol plume from these fires has advected over the Equatorial Indian Ocean region. Development and decay of this plume and its regional transport are studied using aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from NOAA-14 AVHRR data using the Discrete Ordinate Method along with the tropospheric circulation derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the second half of 1997 extensive smoke and haze episodes are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in the latitude range of 5° N to 10° S. The AOD values at 630nm often exceeded 1.0 near Indonesia and in the southeastern parts of Bay of Bengal. Development of this plume started from September and continued up to the first half of November. During first half of September, the plume was conf ined to the coastal regions of Indonesia and then started developing towards west to reach up to 60°E. Decay of the plume started by the middle of November and subsided almost completely by December. During the development phase this plume showed a consistent increase in AOD from western Indian Ocean to Eastern part of tropical Indian Ocean. This westward transport of aerosols from the Indonesian region was confined to the equatorial latitudes. This was due to the reversal of zonal circulation during the El Nino period leading to large westward wind anomaly in the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Westward propagation of the aerosol plume is arrested near ~60°E because of the large convection and rainfall caused by El Nino in this longitude region. The El Nino related weather and atmospheric dynamics is found to have significantly influenced the regional aerosol distribution over the Indian Ocean. On an average, the diurnal mean clear sky aerosol radiative forcing at top of atmosphere (TOA) is estimated to be

  20. Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

  1. Power oscillator

    DOEpatents

    Gitsevich, Aleksandr

    2001-01-01

    An oscillator includes an amplifier having an input and an output, and an impedance transformation network connected between the input of the amplifier and the output of the amplifier, wherein the impedance transformation network is configured to provide suitable positive feedback from the output of the amplifier to the input of the amplifier to initiate and sustain an oscillating condition, and wherein the impedance transformation network is configured to protect the input of the amplifier from a destructive feedback signal. One example of the oscillator is a single active element device capable of providing over 70 watts of power at over 70% efficiency. Various control circuits may be employed to match the driving frequency of the oscillator to a plurality of tuning states of the lamp.

  2. The impact of El Nino on island ecosystems in the gulf of California

    SciTech Connect

    Polis, G.A.; Hurd, S.D.

    1995-09-01

    The El Nino event of 1992-1993 had significant effects on all functional levels of the terrestrial food web of islands in the Gulf of California. These islands are normally very dry; however, during this El Nino event, annual precipitation was nearly five times the median annual precipitation. This caused tremendous increases in plant cover and a significant rise in aerial arthropod abundance. At first, spiders benefited from increased productivity: in 1992, spiders increased to their highest densities in the three years of the study. However, in 1993, despite continued high plant cover and insect prey abundance, spider densities dropped precipitously. This decrease appears to be due to the emergence of numerous parasitoid wasps that formed a hidden trophic influence. Wasps were ineffective at controlling spider densities during dry years due to the absence of their adult food, nectar and pollen from flowering land plants. Abundant flowers during El Nino allowed the wasp population to increase and reproduce successfully.

  3. The 1997/98 El Nino: A Test for Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, R; Dong, B; Cess, R D; Potter, G L

    2004-03-05

    Version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) has been used to demonstrate one means of comparing a general circulation model with observations for a specific climate perturbation, namely the strong 1997/98 El Nino. This event was characterized by the collapse of the tropical Pacific's Walker circulation, caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the El Nino. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. HadAM3 likewise produced the observed collapse of the Walker circulation, and it did a reasonable job of reproducing the west/east cloud structure changes. This illustrates that the 1997/98 El Nino serves as a useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.

  4. Holocene history of the El Nino phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru

    SciTech Connect

    Wells, L.E. )

    1990-11-01

    Significant precipitation along the north-central coast of Peru (lat 5{degree}-10{degree}S) occurs exclusively during El Nino incursions of warm water into the Peruvian littoral. Flood deposits from this region therefore provide a proxy record of extreme El Nino events. The author presents a 3,500 yr chronology of the extreme events based on radiocarbon dating of overbank flood sediments from the Rio Casma (lat 9.2{degree}S). The flood-plain stratigraphy suggests that the El Nino phenomenon has occurred throughout the Holocene and that flood events much larger than that which occurred during 1982-1983 occur here at least once very 1,000 yr.

  5. Early maritime economy and El Nino events at Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.; DeFrance, Susan D.; Moseley, M.E.; Richardson, J. B.; Satterlee, D.R.; Day-Lewis, A.

    1998-01-01

    The archaeological site of Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru, dates to 12,700 to 12,500 calibrated years before the present (10,770 to 10,530 carbon-14 years before the present). It contains some of the oldest evidence of maritime- based economic activity in the New World. Recovered materials include a hearth, lithic cutting tools and flakes, and abundant processed marine fauna, primarily seabirds and fish. Sediments below and above the occupation layer were probably generated by El Nino events, indicating that El Nino was active during the Pleistocene as well as during the early and middle Holocene.

  6. El Nino impacts on seasonal high ozone levels in the lower troposphere

    SciTech Connect

    Linse, E.W. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify one difficulty in evaluating the control strategies for ozone concentrations. El Nino years may be mistakenly interpreted as periods having improved air quality because of those control programs. In fact, the differences in atmospheric stability and mixing have made some years especially benign for air quality. Improvements or the effectiveness of control programs can only be effectively reviewed if the meteorological signature is removed. It may not be generally known how large the impacts of the El Nino conditions can be.

  7. Early maritime economy and El Nino events at quebrada tacahuay, peru

    PubMed

    Keefer; deFrance; Moseley; Richardson; Satterlee; Day-Lewis

    1998-09-18

    The archaeological site of Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru, dates to 12,700 to 12,500 calibrated years before the present (10,770 to 10,530 carbon-14 years before the present). It contains some of the oldest evidence of maritime-based economic activity in the New World. Recovered materials include a hearth, lithic cutting tools and flakes, and abundant processed marine fauna, primarily seabirds and fish. Sediments below and above the occupation layer were probably generated by El Nino events, indicating that El Nino was active during the Pleistocene as well as during the early and middle Holocene.

  8. The Leading Modes of Decadal SST Variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar

    2016-04-01

    The leading modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the Southern Ocean on decadal and even larger time scales are analysed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and observations. We compare the modes from the CMIP5 super ensemble against several simple null hypotheses, such as isotropic diffusion (red noise) and a Slab Ocean model, to investigate the sources of decadal variability and the physical processes affecting the characteristics of the modes. The results show three main modes in the Southern Ocean: the first and most dominant mode on interannual to decadal time scales is an annular mode with largest amplitudes in the Pacific, which is strongly related to atmospheric forcing by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second mode is an almost basin wide monopole pattern, which has pronounced multi-decadal and longer time scales variability. It is firstly inducted by the Wave-3 patterns in the atmosphere and further developed via ocean dynamics. The third mode is a dipole pattern in the southern Pacific that has a pronounced peak in the power spectrum at multi-decadal time scales. All three leading modes found in the CMIP5 super model have distinct patterns and time scale behaviour that can not be explained by simple stochastic null hypothesis, thus all three leading modes are ocean-atmospheric coupled modes and are likely to be substantially influenced or driven by ocean dynamical processes. The mechanism of the basin-wide mode is further analysed based on a series of idealized experiments. The results show that the monopole mode has a two-step power spectrum, with a first spectral increase on interannual time scale and a second higher up level on the multi-decadal to centennial time scales. Ocean dynamics, especially the ocean advection, transport the anomalous signals, connect the entire ocean and lead to the homogeneous-like spatial pattern even under stochastic

  9. Analysis and High-Resolution Modeling of Tropical Cyclogenesis During the TCS-08 and TPARC Field Campaign

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-13

    frequency eddies in tropical cyclone formation. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Tropical cyclogenesis, Madden-Julian Oscillation, El nino-Southern Oscillation 16...hand, the large-scale control of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TC genesis in the WNP will be examined...through the TC southeastward energy dispersion, by which the induces Rossby wave train triggers the convection-circulation feedback . The indirect process

  10. How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen

    2016-04-01

    Ethiopian economy and society are strongly dependent on agriculture and therefore rainfall. Reliable forecasts for the rainy seasons are important to allow for agricultural planning and drought preparations. The operational seasonal forecasts for Ethiopia are based on analogue methods relying mainly on sea surface temperature (SST) indices. A better understanding of the physical links between Ethiopian rainfall and SST may help to improve forecasts. The highest rainfall rates are observed in the Kiremt season (defined as JJAS), which is the rainy season in Central and Northwestern Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall shows clear negative correlation with Central Pacific SST, linking dry Ethiopian summers with ENSO-like warm SST anomalies. We use the atmosphere general circulation model Echam5.3 to investigate the physical link between Pacific SST anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare a historical simulation with a T106 horizontal resolution (~ 1.125°), forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based rainfall observations for the time period of 1961 to 2009. Composite analysis for model and observations show warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific and a corresponding large-scale circulation anomaly with subsidence over Ethiopia in dry Kiremt seasons. Horizontal wind fields show a slow-down of the whole Indian monsoon system with a weaker Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and a weaker East African Low-Level Jet (EALLJ) in these summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment with El Nino like SST anomalies in the Central Pacific with the same Echam version. Its results show that warm Pacific SST anomalies cause dry summer conditions over Ethiopia. While the large-scale subsidence over East Africa is present in the experiment, there is no significant weakening of the Indian monsoon system. We rather find an anomalous circulation cell over Northern Africa with westerlies at 100-200 hPa and easterlies below 500 hPa. The anomalous easterly flow in the lower and middle

  11. Widespread Reduction in Coral Growth Rates on the Mesoamerican Reef Following the 1998 El Nino and Hurricane Mitch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carilli, J. E.; Norris, R. D.; Hughen, K. A.

    2006-12-01

    Corals on the Mesoamerican Reef have been declining in health over the past few decades, and it is important to determine the cause, if conservation measures are to be effective. Cores from large Montastrea spp., Diploria strigosa, and Siderastrea siderea corals were collected in two locations on the Belizean barrier reef: 34 from Frank's Caye, Sapodilla Cayes, in the southern section and 7 from Dog Flea Caye, Turneffe Atoll, in the northern section. Most of the precipitation in this area occurs in southern Belize and Guatemala, therefore the corals from the Sapodilla Cayes may be more heavily impacted by land-based runoff than those at Turneffe Atoll. In 9 of 10 Montastrea and 2 Diploria cores from the Sapodilla Cayes, as well as 2 of 4 Montastrea cores from Turneffe Atoll analyzed so far, extension rates were significantly depressed coincident with unusually dense calcification during ~ 1998 or 1999. In 6 of the Montastrea cores from the Sapodilla Cayes and 1 from Turneffe Atoll, partial mortality was also observed coincident with this anomalous band. The oxygen isotopic and Sr/Ca ratios of the coral skeleton will be used to constrain the timing of this event, based upon cycles in these proxies corresponding to seasonal sea surface temperature fluctuations. These measures will also be used to determine whether high sea surface temperatures are concurrent with the abnormal growth band, which is expected if the stress band formed due to temperature- induced bleaching associated with the 1998 El Nino event. Ba/Ca ratios will be used as a proxy for terrigenous runoff to test the hypothesis that large, sediment-laden runoff plumes that occurred during Hurricane Mitch were also contemporaneous with the coral growth disturbance. We hypothesize that high sea surface temperatures and extraordinarily large runoff plumes were responsible for stressing the Mesoamerican corals, causing a reduction in extension rates, the formation of dense "stress" bands, and widespread

  12. An application of LIDAR to analyses of El Nino erosion in the Netarts littoral cell, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Revell, D.L.; Komar, P.D.; Sallenger, A.H.

    2002-01-01

    El Nin??o produces coastal and beach erosion along the West Coast of the USA by elevating mean water levels so that tides are significantly higher than predicted, and by altering the paths of storms that generate large waves. In the past it has been difficult to adequately document the erosion impacts since they are so widespread. This difficulty has been solved through the application of LIDAR, which uses a scanning laser mounted in a small aircraft to rapidly and accurately survey beach elevations. This study uses LIDAR to document the beach changes and shoreline erosion that occurred during the 1997-98 El Nin??o within the Netarts Littoral Cell on the Oregon coast, a 14-km long "pocket beach" between large rocky headlands. The LIDAR surveys demonstrate that sand generally migrated northward within the cell due to the southwest approach of the El Nin??o storm waves, but there was a complex pattern of beach-elevation change due to the superposition of eroded rip-current embayments. The greatest beach erosion occurred near the south end of the cell, where it impacted Cape Lookout State Park, and to the north of the inlet to Netarts Bay where it threatened The Capes, a development of condominiums located on a high bluff. In both cases the LIDAR data proved to be extremely useful in quantifying the erosion, and in providing a better understanding of the erosion processes that occur during an El Nin??o.

  13. Project Profile: Ninos Especiales Special Children Program. A Culturally Sensitive Early Intervention Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruder, Mary Beth; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Described is the Ninos Especiales Program, a 3-year demonstration project in Hartford, Connecticut, which provided culturally sensitive early intervention services to 34 infants with severe disabilities and their families of Puerto Rican heritage. Included is information on program philosophy, services, evaluation, and participating families.…

  14. The Rise and Fall of Andean Empires: El Nino History Lessons.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Kenneth R.

    2000-01-01

    Provides information on El Nino and the methods for investigating ancient climate record. Traces the rise and fall of the Andean empires focusing on the climatic forces that each empire (Tiwanaku, Wari, Moche, and Inca) endured. States that modern societies should learn from the experiences of these ancient civilizations. (CMK)

  15. A Remote Sensing Class Exercise To Study the Effects of "El Nino" in South America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moxey, Lucas Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    Describes an undergraduate physical science laboratory course exercising the utilization of satellite imagery for studying the floods that resulted in the Parana River region in South America during El Nino (1997-1998), and examines vegetation cover and spectral profiles from the study area in order to further understand and assess the changes…

  16. Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S variations with El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, O.; Fukumori, I.; Lee, T.; Johnson, G. C.

    2004-01-01

    Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationship variability in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5 degrees S ??degrees N, 150 degrees W ?? degrees W) over the last two decades is investigated using observational data and model simulation.

  17. Rainfall estimation from ESMIR-5 measurements and application to El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Hyo-Suk; Graves, C. E.; North, G. R.; Wilheit, T. T.

    1995-01-01

    An algorithm to estimate monthly 5 deg x 5 deg area-averaged rain rate over the oceans from January 1973 to December 1976 using single-channel microwave data from the Nimbus-5 satellite has been developed. This study extends the work of Shin et al. by including the full width of scan angles (from -50 deg to 50 deg) in order to reduce sampling error. The scan-angle dependence of the estimated rain rate due to variable antenna sidelobe effects, surface emissivity, and propagation pathlength is eliminated using a statistical method. A globally uniform beam-filling correction factor of 2.2 is applied in this study. Comparison with island station rainfall measurements over the Pacific shows a remarkably high correlation between two data in the equatorial dry zone and South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) but a low correlation in the extratropics and equatorial western Pacific. It is also proved that the retrieved rain rates are statistically significant. The rainfall deviations from non-El Nino years April 1973 to December 1975 reveal the temporal and spatial variations produced by the 1972-73 and 1976-77 El Nino episodes. We observe an increase of rainfall over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean and a decrease over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia during these events. Consistent with previous work, the rainfall anomaly of the 1972-73 El Nino was much stronger than that of the 1976-77 El Nino.

  18. Reconstructing 2012 and 2014 El Nino SSTA Development from Sub-seasonal Wind Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiodi, A. M.; Harrison, D.

    2015-12-01

    The importance of Westerly Wind Events in the onset and development of El Nino events is now well established. Recently, we have shown that Easterly Wind Surges are also a prominent component of equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress variability, and that they play a role in La Nina development akin to that of Westerly Wind Events in El Nino. Here we examine how well the (partial) El Nino SSTA development observed in 2012 and 2014 can be understood in terms of sub seasonal wind events. We find that the observed 2012 and 2014 El Nino development can be accurately diagnosed by forcing a classic ocean general circulation model with a zonal wind stress field that we reconstruct based just on the application of wind events. The applied wind stress field is consistent with the available wind stress estimates to within the associated uncertainties, which are unfortunately larger than normal due to the collapse of the TAO buoy array over this period. These results suggest that improving our ability to predict ENSO SSTA development in years like 2012 and 2014 will require learning how to predict sub seasonal wind events

  19. East Asian Monsoon and EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN Oscillation Activities Since the Mid-Holocene Evidences from Massive Corals in the the Central Vietnamese Coast, Western South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, A. D.; Zhao, J.; Feng, Y.; Yu, K.; Gasparon, M.; U-Series Dating Technique Team

    2011-12-01

    The climate of the Vietnamese coast, western South China Sea (SCS), is driven by the annually reversing East Asian Monsoon (EAM) system which is also related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through teleconnection. Our understanding of EAM activity and its connection with global climate is not fully established. In this study high resolution Sr/Ca and δ18O records derived from four fossil Porites sp. corals with U-series ages ranging from ~7000 to 1800 years (yrs) were used to characterise the EAM-ENSO activities since the mid-Holocene. The results show that both the summer and winter monsoons were stronger than present ~ 7000 yrs ago, as evidenced by the higher-than-present amplitudes of annual cycles in SST (9.1 °C) and seawater δ18O (1.4%). The strengthened summer monsoon is considered to result from higher Northern Hemispheric insolation during the mid-Holocene, while the enhanced winter monsoon could be attributed to a reduction/shutdown of North Atlantic Meridional Overturning (NAMOC), leading to a prevailing "cold tongue" off the Vietnamese coast, and an amplified east-west SST gradient in the northern SCS. The EAM was weakened ca. 4200 yrs ago, as reflected by the lower amplitude of SST (4.3 °C) and seawater δ18O (0.57%) annual cycles. The downturn of the EAM is correlated in timing with the cold phase or the Bond event of the high-latitude climate, the Neolithic cultural collapse in China, and the strengthened ENSO in the Pacific. After this downturn, the EAM was slightly strengthened ~3600 and 1800 yrs ago as shown by larger amplitudes of SST (~ 5 °C) and seawater δ18O (1.0-1.2%) annual cycles. The enhanced EAM at these times are out of phase with the high-latitude climate, but are consistent with evidence from historical documents in Vietnam and China. The waxing/waning of the EAM appear to match with the waning/waxing of the ENSO intensity throughout the records since the mid-Holocene. The changes in EAM activity were accompanied by

  20. A high resolution history of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and of the solar activity during the Late Glacial - Early Holocene in the subtropical Andean region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giralt, S.; Schimmel, M.; Hernández, A.; Bao, R.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Sáez, A.; Pueyo, J. J.

    2009-04-01

    High-resolution laminated lacustrine sediments are excellent archives of the past hydrological changes and they provide valuable insights about the climatic processes that trigger these changes. The paleoclimatic records located in the Southern Hemisphere are fundamental for understanding the evolution of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since this climatic phenomena is the main cause of droughts and floods in many areas of South America and other regions of the world, like Spain and Egypt. Available regional paleoclimate reconstructions show that modern climatic patterns in South America were established during the Late Holocene. The laminated sediments of Lago Chungará (18° 15' S - 69° 10' W, 4520 m a.s.l., Chilean altiplano) have allowed us to characterize the evolution of this climatic phenomena for the transition Late Glacial - Early Holocene (12,300 - 9,500 calendar years BP) as well as its relationship with other climate forcings, namely the solar activity. The studied sediments correspond to the lowermost 2.4 m of 8 m long Kullemberg cores recovered from this lake. These sediments are mainly made up of greenish and whitish laminae and thin layers constituted by diatomaceous oozes with carbonates and organic matter, arranged in rhythms and cycles. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Rb, Sr, Zn, Sb and Ba) analyses, total organic carbon (TOC), total carbon (TC), x-ray diffraction (XRD), biogenic silica, stable isotopes (delta18O and delta13C) on carbonates and on diatoms (delta18O) and magnetic susceptibility were determined in order to characterize the sediments of Lago Chungará. Previous statistical studies (cluster and Principal Component Analyses (PCA)) were used to disentangle the paleoclimatic signal from the other ones (volcanic and tectonic). The chronological model framework was built using 6 radiocarbon dates, allowing us to establish that laminated couplets were deposited on a pluriannual basis. These couplets are

  1. Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events (1950-1997) and the El Nino-Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred

  2. FEL Oscillators

    SciTech Connect

    George Neil

    2003-05-12

    FEL Oscillators have been around since 1977 providing not only a test bed for the physics of Free Electron Lasers and electron/photon interactions but as a workhorse of scientific research. More than 30 FEL oscillators are presently operating around the world spanning a wavelength range from the mm region to the ultraviolet using DC and rf linear accelerators and storage rings as electron sources. The characteristics that have driven the development of these sources are the desire for high peak and average power, high micropulse energies, wavelength tunability, timing flexibility, and wavelengths that are unavailable from more conventional laser sources. Substantial user programs have been performed using such sources encompassing medicine, biology, solid state research, atomic and molecular physics, effects of non-linear fields, surface science, polymer science, pulsed laser vapor deposition, to name just a few.

  3. STABILIZED OSCILLATOR

    DOEpatents

    Jessen, P.L.; Price, H.J.

    1958-03-18

    This patent relates to sine-wave generators and in particular describes a generator with a novel feedback circuit resulting in improved frequency stability. The generator comprises two triodes having a common cathode circuit connected to oscillate at a frequency and amplitude at which the loop galn of the circutt ls unity, and another pair of triodes having a common cathode circuit arranged as a conventional amplifier. A signal is conducted from the osciliator through a frequency selective network to the amplifier and fed back to the osciliator. The unique feature of the feedback circuit is the amplifier operates in the nonlinear portion of its tube characteristics thereby providing a relatively constant feedback voltage to the oscillator irrespective of the amplitude of its input signal.

  4. Pseudolinear Circuit Theory for Sinusoidal Oscillator Performance Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohira, Takashi; Wuren, Tuya

    This paper introduces a theory for fast optimization of the circuit topology and parameters in sinusoidal oscillators. The theory starts from a system model composed of standard active and passive elements. We then include even the output load in the circuit, so that there is no longer any interaction with the outside of the system through the port. This model is thus called no-input-no-output (NINO) oscillator. The circuit is cut at an arbitrary branch, and is characterized in terms of the scalar impedance from the cut point. This is called active impedance because it is a function of not only the stimulating frequency but also the active device gain. The oscillation frequency and necessary device gain are estimated by solving impedance-domain Barkhausen equilibrium equations. This estimation works for the adjustment of circuit elements to meet the specified oscillation frequency. The estimation of necessary device gain enables us to maximize the oscillation amplitude, thanks to the inherent negative-slope nonlinearity of active devices. The active impedance is also used to derive the oscillation Q (quality) factor, which serves as a key criterion for sideband noise minimization i.e. frequency spectrum purification. As an alternative measure to active impedance, we also introduce branch admittance matrix determinant. This has the same numerical effect as the scalar impedance but can be used to formulate oscillator characteristics in a more elegant fashion, and provides a lucent picture of the physical behavior of each element in the circuit. Based on the proposed theory, we provide the tabled formulas of oscillation frequency, necessary device gain, active Q factor for a variety of typical Colpitts, Hartley, and cross-coupled twin-FET (field-effect transistor) oscillators.

  5. Solar Oscillations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duvall, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Oscillations were first detected in the solar photosphere in 1962 by Leighton and students. In 1970 it was calculated that these oscillations, with a period near five minutes, were the manifestations of acoustic waves trapped in the interior. The subsequent measurements of the frequencies of global oscillation modes from the spatio-temporal power spectrum of the waves made possible the refinement of solar interior models. Over the years, increased understanding of the nuclear reaction rates, the opacity, the equation of state, convection, and gravitational settling have resulted. Mass flows shift the frequencies of modes leading to very accurate measurements of the interior rotation as a function of radius and latitude. In recent years, analogues of terrestrial seismology have led to a tomography of the interior, including measurements of global north-south flows and flow and wave speed measurements below features such as sunspots. The future of helioseismology seems bright with the approval of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory mission, to be launched in 2008.

  6. Opposing forces of aerosol cooling and El Nino drive coral bleaching on Caribbean reefs.

    PubMed

    Gill, Jennifer A; Watkinson, Andrew R; McWilliams, John P; Côté, Isabelle M

    2006-12-05

    Bleaching of corals as a result of elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) is rapidly becoming a primary source of stress for reefs globally; the scale and extent of this threat will depend on how the drivers of SST interact to influence bleaching patterns. We demonstrate how the opposing forces of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and levels of atmospheric aerosols drive regional-scale patterns of coral bleaching across the Caribbean. When aerosol levels are low, bleaching is largely determined by El Niño strength, but high aerosol levels mitigate the effects of a severe El Niño. High aerosol levels, resulting principally from recent volcanic activity, have thus protected Caribbean reefs from more frequent widespread bleaching events but cannot be relied on to provide similar protection in the future.

  7. Sea-cliff erosion as a function of beach changes and extreme wave runup during the 1997-1998 El Nino

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sallenger, A.H.; Krabill, W.; Brock, J.; Swift, R.; Manizade, S.; Stockdon, H.

    2002-01-01

    Over time scales of hundreds to thousands of years, the net longshore sand transport direction along the central California coast has been driven to the south by North Pacific winter swell. In contrast, during the El Nin??o winter of 1997-1998, comparisons of before and after airborne lidar surveys showed sand was transported from south to north and accumulated on the south sides of resistant headlands bordering pocket beaches. This resulted in significant beach erosion at the south ends of pocket beaches and deposition in the north ends. Coincident with the south-to-north redistribution of sand, shoreline morphology became prominently cuspate with longshore wavelengths of 400-700 m. The width and elevation of beaches were least where maximum shoreline erosion occurred, preferentially exposing cliffs to wave attack. The resulting erosional hotspots typically were located in the embayments of giant cusps in the southern end of the pocket beaches. The observed magnitude of sea cliff retreat, which reached 14 m, varied with the number of hours that extreme wave runup exceeded certain thresholds representing the protective capacity of the beach during the El Nin??o winter. A threshold representing the width of the beach performed better than a threshold representing the elevation of the beach. The magnitude of cliff erosion can be scaled using a simple model based on the cross-shore distance that extreme wave runup exceeded the pre-winter cliff position. Cliff erosion appears to be a balance between terrestrial mass wasting processes, which tend to decrease the cliff slope, and wave attack, which removes debris and erodes the cliff base increasing the cliff slope. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. An approximately 15,000-year record of El Nino-driven alluviation in southwestern ecuador

    PubMed

    Rodbell; Seltzer; Anderson; Abbott; Enfield; Newman

    1999-01-22

    Debris flows have deposited inorganic laminae in an alpine lake that is 75 kilometers east of the Pacific Ocean, in Ecuador. These storm-induced events were dated by radiocarbon, and the age of laminae that are less than 200 years old matches the historic record of El Nino events. From about 15,000 to about 7000 calendar years before the present, the periodicity of clastic deposition is greater than or equal to 15 years; thereafter, there is a progressive increase in frequency to periodicities of 2 to 8.5 years. This is the modern El Nino periodicity, which was established about 5000 calendar years before the present. This may reflect the onset of a steeper zonal sea surface temperature gradient, which was driven by enhanced trade winds.

  9. Cloud Structure Anomalies Over the Tropical Pacific During the 1997/98 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cess, Robert D.; Zhang, Minghua; Wang, Pi-Huan; Wielicki, Bruce A.

    2001-01-01

    Satellite measurements of both cloud vertical structure and cloud-radiative forcing have been used to show that during the strong 1997/98 El Nino there was a substantial change in cloud vertical structure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. The reason for these redistributions was a collapse of the Walker circulation and enhanced large-scale upward motion over the eastern Pacific, both caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during El Nino. It is proposed that these cloud structure changes, which significantly impact satellite measurements of the tropical Pacific's radiation budget, would serve as one useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.

  10. Sea-cliff erosion at Pacifica, California caused by 1997/98 El Nino storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Snell, Charles B.; Lajoie, K.R.; Medley, Edward W.

    2000-01-01

    Twelve homes were constructed in 1949 at the top of a sea cliff along Esplanade Drive in the City of Pacifica, located on the northern coast of San Mateo County, California. During the heavy storms of the 1997/98 El Nino winter, a severe episode of cliff retreat undermined seven homes and threatened three others. The geologic, tide, wave, rainfall and wind data were analyzed to determine the causes of this erosion events.

  11. Forecasting of Amount of Rainfall in Rainy Season by using Information Obtained from El Nino Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamada, Fujihiro; Yamamoto, Nobuyuki; Sugimoto, Shigeyuki; Ichiyanagi, Katsuhiro; Hibino, Yasuyuki; Nakano, Hiroyuki; Mizuno, Katsunori; Yukita, Kazuto; Goto, Yasuyuki

    In electric power system operation and dam management, it is important that we forecast the rainfall depth in the rainy season. This paper studies the technique using neural network in order to forecast the amount of rainfall in rainy season on upper district of dam for hydro power plant. A case study was carried out on Central Japan. We were able to confirm the effectiveness of the information obtained from El Nino and La Nina data.

  12. Soil CO2 Flux in the Amargosa Desert, Nevada, during El Nino 1998 and La Nina 1999

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Riggs, Alan C.; Stannard, David I.; Maestas, Florentino B.; Karlinger, Michael R.; Striegl, Robert G.

    2009-01-01

    Mean annual soil CO2 fluxes from normally bare mineral soil in the Amargosa Desert in southern Nevada, United States, measured with clear and opaque soil CO2-flux chambers (autochambers) were small - <5 millimoles per square meter per day - during both El Nino 1998 and La Nina 1999. The 1998 opaque-chamber flux exceeded 1999 opaque-chamber flux by an order of magnitude, whereas the 1998 clear-chamber flux exceeded 1999 clear-chamber flux by less than a factor of two. These data suggest that above-normal soil moisture stimulated increased metabolic activity, but that much of the extra CO2 produced was recaptured by plants. Fluxes from warm moist soil were the largest sustained fluxes measured, and their hourly pattern is consistent with enhanced soil metabolic activity at some depth in the soil and photosynthetic uptake of a substantial portion of the CO2 released. Flux from cool moist soil was smaller than flux from warm moist soil. Flux from hot dry soil was intermediate between warm-moist and cool-moist fluxes, and clear-chamber flux was more than double the opaque-chamber flux, apparently due to a chamber artifact stemming from a thermally controlled CO2 reservoir near the soil surface. There was no demonstrable metabolic contribution to the very small flux from cool dry soil, which was dominated by diffusive up-flux of CO2 from the water table and temperature-controlled CO2-reservoir up- and down-fluxes. These flux patterns suggest that transfer of CO2 across the land surface is a complex process that is difficult to accurately measure.

  13. Numerical study for characteristic change of Asian summer monsoon circulation and its influence mechanism during the El Nino period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ni, Yunqi; Lin, Yuanbi

    1990-05-01

    In this paper, the relation between Asian summer monsoon circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific is investigated by using a global spectral model. This model has nine layers in the vertical and the model variables are represented in the horizontal as truncated expansions of the surface spherical harmonics with rhomboidal truncation at wave number 15. The model involves comparatively complete physical processes and parameterizations with mountains. Using the above model, two experimental schemes are designed, namely control case and anomalous sea surface temperature case. The above two schemes are respectively integrated for forty days and the simulated results are obtained from the last 30-day averaged simulations. The simulations show that positive SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific weakens Indian monsoon circulation, decreases precipitation in Indian sub-continent whereas it intensifies East Asian monsoon circulation and increases precipitation in East Asian area. All these results reflect the characteristics of Asian summer monsoon during the El Nino period. In this paper, SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific have a direct influence on the intensity and position of subtropical high via the wave train over Northern Hemisphere, which is similar to that suggested by Nitta(1987) and the wave train over Southern Hemisphere has an influence on the intensity of Mascarene high and Australia high resulting in affecting cross equatorial flow. As a result, atmospheric interior heat sources and sinks are redistributed because of the change of cross equatorial flow. And the response of atmosphere to the new heat source and sink has a significant influence on Asian summer monsoon.

  14. Cloud and TOA radiative anomalies Over the Tropical Pacific During the 97/98 El Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, M.; Cess, R.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.; Nguyen, C.

    2012-12-01

    The CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) cloud-by-type dataset, which contains cloud properties and radiative fluxes for 42 cloud types sorted by cloud top pressure and cloud optical depth, is used to investigate the clouds and their associated TOA (top-of-the-atmosphere) fluxes changes over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the strong 1997/98 El Nino. This time period includes much of the 1997/98 El Nino, which reached peak intensity in March 1998 and had essentially subsided by August 1998. The west-to-east shift of the center of convection that occurred during the El Nino resulted in cloud fraction, cloud-top altitude and cloud optical depth all increasing in the eastern equatorial Pacific while decreasing in the western tropical Pacific, and for both regions all three cloud parameters are strongly correlated with each other. NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used to simulate the cloud structure changes during the period, which does a rather reasonable job. OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) changes over the eastern Pacific are also investigated. For all sky OLR change, though highly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST), is mainly driven by cloud altitude and cloud fraction change. Clear sky OLR change is mainly due to moisture change. SST and lapse rate have much smaller effect on OLR change.

  15. Analysis of rainfall over northern Peru during El Nino: A PCDS application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldberg, R.; Tisnado, G.

    1986-01-01

    In an examination of GOES satellite data during the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period, the appearance of lee wave cloud patterns was revealed. A correlation was hypothesized relating an anomalous easterly flow across the Andes with the appearance of these wave patterns and with the subsequent onset of intense rainfall. The cloud patterns are belived to be associated with the El Nino period and could be viewed as precursors to significant changes in weather patterns. The ultimate goal of the researchers will be the ability to predict occurrences of rainstorms associated with the appearance of lee waves and related cloud patterns as harbingers of destruction caused by flooding, huaycos, and other catastrophic consequences of heavy and abnormal rainfall. Rainfall data from about 70 stations in northern Peru from 1980 through 1984 were formatted to be utilized within the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS). This time period includes the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period. As an example of the approach, a well-pronounced lee wave pattern was shown from a GOES satellite image of April 4, 1983. The ground truth data were then displayed via the PCDS to graphically demonstrate the increase in intensity and areal distribution of rainfall in the northern Peruvian area in the next 4 to 5 days.

  16. Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - Water Vapor Measurement, October, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image shows atmospheric water vapor in Earth's upper troposphere, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument flying aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. These data collected in early October 1997 indicate the presence of El Nino by showing a shift of humidity from west to east (blue and red areas) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the term used when the warmest equatorial Pacific Ocean water is displaced toward the east. The areas of high atmospheric moisture correspond to areas of very warm ocean water. Warmer water evaporates at a higher rate and the resulting warm moist air then rises, forming tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. The MLS instrument, developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, measures humidity at the top of these clouds, which are very moist. This rain is now occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean and has left Indonesia (deep blue region) unusually dry, resulting in the current drought in that region. This image also shows moisture moving north into Mexico, an effect of several hurricanes spawned by the warm waters of El Nino.

  17. Impact of El Nino and La Nina on the meteorological elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, Rajasri Sen; Subitha, T.; Samuthra, G.; Punitha, M.; Vinotha, R.

    2016-05-01

    The El Nino and La Nina have been found to influence the weather at a remote place. In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of El Nino & La Nina on the surface temperature and rainfall over few selected locations in India and abroad. The study shows that the ENSO affects the surface rainfall; however, the impact is not the same over all the locations. In order to find out whether such influence is latitude sensitive, the study has been performed over locations located at different latitudes and at a fixed longitude. To check if the El Nino/La Nina leaves any impressions on the upper air meteorological elements, the cloud liquid water (CLW), precipitation water (PW), latent heat (LH), freezing level height (HFL) and the bright band height (BBH) over a few locations have been studied from the Earth's surface up to a height of 18 km above. The CLW, PW and LH values have been obtained from the data product 2A12 of the Tropical Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Satellite (TRMM), while that of the BBH and the HFL are obtained from the data product 2A23 of the precipitation radar (PR) onboard the TRMM.

  18. Grid oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Popovic, Zorana B.; Kim, Moonil; Rutledge, David B.

    1988-01-01

    Loading a two-dimensional grid with active devices offers a means of combining the power of solid-state oscillators in the microwave and millimeter-wave range. The grid structure allows a large number of negative resistance devices to be combined. This approach is attractive because the active devices do not require an external locking signal, and the combining is done in free space. In addition, the loaded grid is a planar structure amenable to monolithic integration. Measurements on a 25-MESFET grid at 9.7 GHz show power-combining and frequency-locking without an external locking signal, with an ERP of 37 W. Experimental far-field patterns agree with theoretical results obtained using reciprocity.

  19. Oscillator detector

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, B.M.

    1980-05-13

    An alien liquid detector employs a monitoring element and an oscillatory electronic circuit for maintaining the temperature of the monitoring element substantially above ambient temperature. The output wave form, eg., frequency of oscillation or wave shape, of the oscillatory circuit depends upon the temperaturedependent electrical characteristic of the monitoring element. A predetermined change in the output waveform allows water to be discriminated from another liquid, eg., oil. Features of the invention employing two thermistors in two oscillatory circuits include positioning one thermistor for contact with water and the other thermistor above the oil-water interface to detect a layer of oil if present. Unique oscillatory circuit arrangements are shown that achieve effective thermistor action with an economy of parts and energizing power. These include an operational amplifier employed in an astable multivibrator circuit, a discrete transistor-powered tank circuit, and use of an integrated circuit chip.

  20. On the hydroclimate of southern South America: Water vapor transport and the role of shallow groundwater on land-atmosphere interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez Agudelo, John Alejandro

    The present work focuses on the sources and transport of water vapor to the La Plata Basin (LPB), and the role of groundwater dynamics on the simulation of hydrometeorological conditions over the basin. In the first part of the study an extension to the Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM) is developed to estimate the water vapor transported to the LPB from different regions in South America and the nearby oceans, and the corresponding contribution to precipitation over the LPB. It is found that more than 23% of the precipitation over the LPB is from local origin, while nearly 20% originates from evapotranspiration from the southern Amazon. Most of the moisture comes from terrestrial sources, with the South American continent contributing more than 62% of the moisture for precipitation over the LPB. The Amazonian contribution increases during the positive phase of El Nino and the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation. In the second part of the study the effect of a groundwater scheme on the simulation of terrestrial water storage, soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) over the LPB is investigated. It is found that the groundwater scheme improves the simulation of fluctuations in the terrestrial water storage over parts of the southern Amazon. There is also an increase in the soil moisture in the root zone over those regions where the water table is closer to the surface, including parts of the western and southern Amazon, and of the central and southern LPB. ET increases in the central and southern LPB, where it is water limited. Over parts of the southeastern Amazon the effects of the groundwater scheme are only observed at higher resolution, when the convergence of lateral groundwater flow in local topographical depressions is resolved by the model. Finally, the effects of the groundwater scheme on near surface conditions and precipitation are explored. It is found that the increase in ET induced by the groundwater scheme over parts of the LPB induces an

  1. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - La Nina Conditions Likely to Prevail, October 10, 1999

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1999-01-01

    A repeat of last year's mild La Nina conditions -- with a stormy winter in the Pacific Northwest and a dry winter in the southwestern United States -- will be the likely outcome of sea-surface heights observed by NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, scientists say.

    TOPEX/Poseidon has detected lower than normal sea-surface heights in the eastern North Pacific and unusually high sea-surface heights in the western and mid-latitude Pacific. The height of the sea surface over a given area is an indicator of ocean temperature and other factors that influence climate.

    The latest measurements, taken during a 10-day data cycle October 5-15, are available at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino . Sea-surface height is shown relative to normal (green) and reveals cooler water (blue and purple) measuring about 14 centimeters (6 inches) lower in the eastern North Pacific, from the Gulf of Alaska to central Alaska, and along the equator. The cooling trend sets the stage for another La Nina this winter.

    'A mirror image of that oceanic profile prevails in the western and mid-latitude Pacific Ocean, where higher than normal sea-surface heights (red and white) are currently about 20 centimeters or 8 inches. Unusually warm temperatures (shown in red and white) have persisted and topped last year's temperatures,' said Dr. William Patzert, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA.

    'These unbalanced conditions will undoubtedly exert a very strong influence on climate over North America this fall and winter,' Patzert said. 'Our profile of high sea-surface heights and warm temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean contrasts with low sea-surface heights and cool conditions in the eastern and equatorial Pacific. Those conditions will have a powerful impact on the weather system delivering jet streams out of the North Pacific.'

    Conditions are ripe for a stormy, wet winter in the Pacific Northwest and a dry, relatively rainless winter in Southern California and

  2. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - 'Double Peak' Pattern Complete, Dec, 1, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. The volume of the warm water related to El Nino has receded to about the level it was in early September. Oceanographers note that this El Nino has just completed a classic 'double peak' pattern in the eastern Pacific with the first peak in sea level occurring in July and the second peak in October. This pattern is very similar to what was observed during the 1982-83 El Nino, although at that time the double peaks occurred in January and April 1983. After the appearance of the double peaks in 1982-83, the sea level then began falling back to normal levels within a few months. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has issued an advisory indicating the

  3. Oscillating Permanent Magnets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Michaelis, M. M.; Haines, C. M.

    1989-01-01

    Describes several ways to partially levitate permanent magnets. Computes field line geometries and oscillation frequencies. Provides several diagrams illustrating the mechanism of the oscillation. (YP)

  4. North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

  5. Texas floods, El Nino and climate change - 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S. Y.; Huang, W. R.; Hsu, H. H.; Gillies, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The climate anomalies leading to the May 2015 floods in Texas and Oklahoma were analyzed in the context of El Niño teleconnection in a warmer climate. El Niño tends to increase late-spring precipitation in the southern Great Plains and this effect has intensified since 1980. There was a detectable effect of anthropogenic global warming in the physical processes that caused the persistent precipitation in May of 2015: Warming in the tropical Pacific acted to strengthen the teleconnection towards North America, modification of zonal wave-5 circulation that deepened the anomalous trough to the west of Texas, and an enhanced Great Plains low-level southerlies increasing moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Attribution analysis using the CMIP5 single-forcing experiments and the CESM Large Ensemble Project indicated a significant increase in the El Niño- induced precipitation anomalies over Texas and Oklahoma when increases in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases were taken into account.

  6. Variation of Surface Air Temperature in Relation to El Nino and Cataclysmic Volcanic Eruptions, 1796-1882

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    During the contemporaneous interval of 1796-1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Nino and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Nino of moderate to stronger strength, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about +/- 0.3 C from normal being warmer during the boreal fall-winter leading up to the El Nino year and cooler during the spring-summer of the El Nino year. Also, the influence of El Nino on Central England temperatures appears to last about 1-2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the change in temperature decreased by about 0.1 - 0.2 C, typically, 1-2 years after the eruption, although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to produce greater changes in temperature than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring-summer appear to produce greater changes in temperature than those occurring in fall-winter.

  7. Gravity and Rossby Wave Signatures in the Tropical Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Based on Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ), 1998-2007

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Anne M.; Allen, Amber L.; Lee, Sukyoung; Miller, Sonya K.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.

    2011-01-01

    Prior investigations attempted to determine the relative influence of advection and convective processes on ozone and water vapor distributions in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through analyses of tracers, related physical parameters (e.g., outgoing long-wave radiation, precipitable water, and temperature), or with models. In this study, stable laminae in Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde Network (SHADOZ) ozone profIles from 1998 to 2007 are interpreted in terms of gravity waves (GW) or Rossby waves (RW) that are identified with vertical and quasi-horizontal displacements, respectively. Using the method of Pierce and Grant (1998) as applied by Thompson et al. (2007a, 2007b, 2010, 2011), amplitudes and frequencies in ozone laminae are compared among representative SHADOZ sites over Africa and the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. GW signals maximize in the TTL and lower stratosphere. Depending on site and season, GW are identified in up to 90% of the soundings. GW are most prevalent over the Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, a distribution consistent with vertically propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. Ozone laminae from RW occur more often below the tropical tropopause and with lower frequency 20%). Gravity wave and Rossby wave indices (GWI, RWI) are formulated to facilitate analysis of interannual variability of wave signatures among sites. GWI is positively correlated with a standard ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) index over American Samoa (14degS, 171degW) and negatively correlated at Watukosek, Java (7.5degS, 114degE), Kuala Lumpur (3degN, 102degE), and Ascension Island (80degS, 15degW). Generally, the responses of GW and RW to ENSO are consistent with prior studies.

  8. Satellite color observations of the phytoplankton distribution in the eastern Equatorial Pacific during the 1982-1983 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feldman, G.; Clark, D.; Halpern, D.

    1984-01-01

    Images provided by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) onboard Nimbus-7 show the effect of the 1982-1983 El Nino upon the phytoplankton distribution around the Galapagos Islands, located on the equator. The CZCS scenes document a major redistribution of phytoplankton around the Galapagos Island during a period when sea-surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously high (28 to 29 C). The mixed layer was unusually thick for this region, and the winds and both the surface and subsurface flows changed directions. It is pointed out that the El Nino is characterized as one of the most spectacular examples of a large-amplitude, interannual response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing. The 1982-1983 El Nino is the best documented event of its kind to date, and details of its effects are discussed.

  9. Comparative study of aerosols observed by YAG lidar and airborne detectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirono, M.; Fujiwara, M.; Shibata, T.

    1985-01-01

    The causal relationships of very large (tropical) volcanic eruptions and El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) based on the unequal atmospheric heating by aerosols observed by lidar and airborne detectors are discussed.

  10. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through

  11. a General Circulation Model Investigation of the Atmospheric Response to EL Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Aragao, Jose Oribe Rocha

    The observed atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Nino episodes is simulated with the use of a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. A series of experiments has been performed with the Rasmusson and Carpenter six-episode (El Nino) composite SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific superimposed upon the prescribed climatological SST (CSST). Five independent 400-day runs were made beginning in April of the El Nino year (Year 0) and ending in May of the year after the maximum SSTA in the tropical Pacific (Year +1). Each of the integrations started from different initial conditions selected from different years in a 20 -year control run. The five-year El Nino integration was compared with the control run by analyzing the ensemble monthly, seasonal and annual mean statistics. The model's tropical response resembles the anomalous features found in previous studies. Some features are expected from the constraint imposed by the vorticity balance in the linear theory. For example, the upper level anticyclone pair and the lower level cyclonic circulation centers in the central Pacific are present for almost all months. These responses are significant and seem to be related to the location of both the maximum in CSST and the maximum in SSTA. An anomalous Walker Circulation is found in the vertical plane along the equatorial region. Rainfall departures from the long-term mean are associated with the anomalous Walker Circulation. An analysis of rainfall data over Northeast Brazil reveals sup- pressed rainfall in this area during the rainy season of Year(+1). Significant lower-than-normal rainfall is also found in the model's response during that period. This reduction in precipitation is associated with the downward branch of the anomalous Walker Circulation. The model's extratropical response is weaker than the tropical response and is not well organized. A Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is present during the

  12. Prediction of Nino 3 sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Penland, C.; Magorian, T. )

    1993-06-01

    Linear inverse modeling is used to predict sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Nino 3 region. Predictors in three geographical locations are used: the tropical Pacific Ocean, the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and the global tropical oceans. Predictions did not depend crucially on any of these three domains, and evidence was found to support the assumption that linear dynamics dominates most of the record. The prediction model performs better when SST anomalies are rapidly evolving than during warm events when large anomalies persist. The rms prediction error at a lead time of 9 months is about half a degree Celsius. 31 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Interactions Between the North Pacific Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere during EL Nino.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, Michael Adam

    1990-01-01

    Model simulations are used to examine sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific during the fall and winter of El Nino episodes and the extent to which these anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation. A mixed layer ocean model of the North Pacific is forced by Community Climate Model (CCM) fields containing the El Nino signal (prescribed warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific). The ocean model generally reproduces the features of the observed midlatitude SST anomaly pattern: warm water in the northeast Pacific and an elliptically shaped cold pool in the central Pacific. In these regions, a large fraction of the temperature anomalies are significant as indicated by the t-statistic. The model SST anomalies are primarily caused by changes in the sensible and latent heat flux and to a lesser extent the longwave radiation flux. Entrainment of water into the mixed layer has a complex spatial structure, but usually acts to damp SST anomalies; Ekman pumping has a negligible effect on the ocean anomalies. Air-sea interaction in the North Pacific is examined using coupled CCM/North Pacific Ocean model simulations. Air -sea interaction reduces the El Nino induced North Pacific SST anomalies by 25% to 50%, but does not substantially alter the anomaly pattern. In general, low (high) pressure and cyclonic (anticyclonic) winds are located above the warm (cold) SST anomalies. Air temperature and precipitation fields are influenced by both advection and local adjustment to the SST field. The North Pacific SST anomalies are linked to geopotential height anomalies which resemble the West Pacific, East Atlantic, and Pacific North America patterns. The height anomalies are essentially equivalent barotropic and increase with altitude in the troposphere. The anomalies, which range between 30 and 70 m in magnitude at the 200 mb level, are about 25% to 45% smaller and generally opposite in sign to those connected with El Nino. There is a high degree of variability in the

  14. Microplankton species assemblages at the Scripps Pier from March to November 1983 during the 1982-1984 El Nino event

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reid, F. M. H.; Lange, C. B.; White, M. M.

    1985-01-01

    A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typial neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.

  15. Microplankton species assemblages at the Scripps Pier from March to November 1983 during the 1982-1984 El Nino event

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reid, F. M. H.; Lange, C. B.; White, M. M.

    1984-01-01

    A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typical neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.

  16. Chemical oscillator as a generalized Rayleigh oscillator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Shyamolina; Ray, Deb Shankar

    2013-10-01

    We derive the conditions under which a set of arbitrary two dimensional autonomous kinetic equations can be reduced to the form of a generalized Rayleigh oscillator which admits of limit cycle solution. This is based on a linear transformation of field variables which can be found by inspection of the kinetic equations. We illustrate the scheme with the help of several chemical and bio-chemical oscillator models to show how they can be cast as a generalized Rayleigh oscillator.

  17. ENSO and winter storms in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, D.R.; Bromirski, Peter

    2003-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of North Pacific winter storms that penetrate the California coast drives the winds, sea level, precipitation and streamflow that are crucial influences on coastal processes. There is considerable variability of these storm characteristics, in large part owing to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO} phenomenon. There is a great contrast of the storm characteristics during the El Nino phase vs. the La Nina phase, with the largest scale, southerly extensive winter storms generated during El Nino.

  18. Synchronization of genetic oscillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tianshou; Zhang, Jiajun; Yuan, Zhanjiang; Chen, Luonan

    2008-09-01

    Synchronization of genetic or cellular oscillators is a central topic in understanding the rhythmicity of living organisms at both molecular and cellular levels. Here, we show how a collective rhythm across a population of genetic oscillators through synchronization-induced intercellular communication is achieved, and how an ensemble of independent genetic oscillators is synchronized by a common noisy signaling molecule. Our main purpose is to elucidate various synchronization mechanisms from the viewpoint of dynamics, by investigating the effects of various biologically plausible couplings, several kinds of noise, and external stimuli. To have a comprehensive understanding on the synchronization of genetic oscillators, we consider three classes of genetic oscillators: smooth oscillators (exhibiting sine-like oscillations), relaxation oscillators (displaying jump dynamics), and stochastic oscillators (noise-induced oscillation). For every class, we further study two cases: with intercellular communication (including phase-attractive and repulsive coupling) and without communication between cells. We find that an ensemble of smooth oscillators has different synchronization phenomena from those in the case of relaxation oscillators, where noise plays a different but key role in synchronization. To show differences in synchronization between them, we make comparisons in many aspects. We also show that a population of genetic stochastic oscillators have their own synchronization mechanisms. In addition, we present interesting phenomena, e.g., for relaxation-type stochastic oscillators coupled to a quorum-sensing mechanism, different noise intensities can induce different periodic motions (i.e., inhomogeneous limit cycles).

  19. Climate variability and spatiotemporal dynamics of five Southern Ocean krill species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loeb, Valerie J.; Santora, Jarrod A.

    2015-05-01

    Understanding the ecological response of marine organisms to future climate change will benefit from quantifying spatiotemporal aspects of their distribution and abundance as well as the influence of ocean-atmospheric climate modes on their population cycles. Our study provides a synthesis of 18 years of data (1992-2009) for 5 krill (euphausiid) species monitored near the North Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) during austral summer. Distribution and abundance data are presented for postlarval stages of Euphausia crystallorophias, E. frigida, E. superba, E. triacantha and Thysanoessa macrura and larval E. superba and T. macrura. Intraseasonal, interannual and longer-term distribution and abundance patterns are quantified relative to climate modes driving ecosystem variability off the Antarctic Peninsula: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annual Mode (SAM) and associated zonal and meridional winds. Interannual abundance variations of all 5 species are significantly correlated with seasonally averaged ENSO indices and, with the exception of E. triacantha, elevated population sizes are associated with the higher productivity La Niña phase. Time-lagged responses of each species to ENSO indices approximate their generation times and suggest evolution of their life histories and reproductive efforts in accordance with the ENSO cycle. Postlarval E. crystallorophias and E. frigida and larval T. macrura demonstrate significant abundance increases after 1998 associated with a shift from an El Niño dominated period to predominantly La Niña and "Nino-neutral" conditions. Seasonal changes in species distributions and co-occurrence indicate portions of the southernmost E. frigida, E. triacantha and T. macrura populations move poleward with E. superba during late-summer, suggesting that environmental conditions associated with sea ice development (e.g., food, retention) may be more favorable than within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during low productivity seasons

  20. The impact of ENSO on wave breaking and Southern Annular Mode events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven; Luo, Dehai

    2010-05-01

    This study examines the relationship between Southern Annular Mode (SAM) events and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily ERA-40 data. The data coverage spans the years 1979 through 2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Elliassen-Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables, the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and a wave breaking index, which is used to evaluate the frequency of the wave breaking. On the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, positive SAM events are associated with strong anticyclonic wave breaking, and negative SAM events with weak anticyclonic wave breaking. On the poleward side of the eddy-driven jet, positive SAM events coincide with little wave breaking and negative SAM events by weak cyclonic wave breaking. These wave breaking events are found to occur far from the critical latitudes. With the exception of the El Nino and La Nina years, these SAM events decayed within 7 to 10 days of their establishment through mixing. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis indicates that strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking takes place with a much higher frequency during La Niña (El Niño). It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also showed that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are

  1. Holographic charge oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blake, Mike; Donos, Aristomenis; Tong, David

    2015-04-01

    The Reissner-Nordström black hole provides the prototypical description of a holographic system at finite density. We study the response of this system to the presence of a local, charged impurity. Below a critical temperature, the induced charge density, which screens the impurity, exhibits oscillations. These oscillations can be traced to the singularities in the density-density correlation function moving in the complex momentum plane. At finite temperature, the oscillations are very similar to the Friedel oscillations seen in Fermi liquids. However, at zero temperature the oscillations in the black hole background remain exponentially damped, while Friedel oscillations relax to a power-law.

  2. Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Luyu; Xu, Jianming; Tie, Xuexi; Wu, Jianbin

    2016-09-01

    During the winter of 2015, there was a strong El Nino (ENSO) event, resulting in significant anomalies for meteorological conditions in China. Analysis shows that the meteorological conditions in December 2015 (compared to December 2014) had several important anomalies, including the following: (1) the surface southeasterly winds were significantly enhanced in the North China Plain (NCP); (2) the precipitation was increased in the south of eastern China; and (3) the wind speeds were decreased in the middle-north of eastern China, while slightly increased in the south of eastern China. These meteorological anomalies produced important impacts on the aerosol pollution in eastern China. In the NCP region, the PM2.5 concentrations were significantly increased, with a maximum increase of 80–100 μg m‑3. A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) was applied to study the individual contribution of the changes in winds and precipitation to PM2.5 concentrations. This study suggests that the 2015El Nino event had significant effects on air pollution in eastern China, especially in the NCP region, including the capital city of Beijing, in which aerosol pollution was significantly enhanced in the already heavily polluted capital city of China.

  3. Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.

    PubMed

    Chang, Luyu; Xu, Jianming; Tie, Xuexi; Wu, Jianbin

    2016-09-27

    During the winter of 2015, there was a strong El Nino (ENSO) event, resulting in significant anomalies for meteorological conditions in China. Analysis shows that the meteorological conditions in December 2015 (compared to December 2014) had several important anomalies, including the following: (1) the surface southeasterly winds were significantly enhanced in the North China Plain (NCP); (2) the precipitation was increased in the south of eastern China; and (3) the wind speeds were decreased in the middle-north of eastern China, while slightly increased in the south of eastern China. These meteorological anomalies produced important impacts on the aerosol pollution in eastern China. In the NCP region, the PM2.5 concentrations were significantly increased, with a maximum increase of 80-100 μg m(-3). A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) was applied to study the individual contribution of the changes in winds and precipitation to PM2.5 concentrations. This study suggests that the 2015El Nino event had significant effects on air pollution in eastern China, especially in the NCP region, including the capital city of Beijing, in which aerosol pollution was significantly enhanced in the already heavily polluted capital city of China.

  4. Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Luyu; Xu, Jianming; Tie, Xuexi; Wu, Jianbin

    2016-01-01

    During the winter of 2015, there was a strong El Nino (ENSO) event, resulting in significant anomalies for meteorological conditions in China. Analysis shows that the meteorological conditions in December 2015 (compared to December 2014) had several important anomalies, including the following: (1) the surface southeasterly winds were significantly enhanced in the North China Plain (NCP); (2) the precipitation was increased in the south of eastern China; and (3) the wind speeds were decreased in the middle-north of eastern China, while slightly increased in the south of eastern China. These meteorological anomalies produced important impacts on the aerosol pollution in eastern China. In the NCP region, the PM2.5 concentrations were significantly increased, with a maximum increase of 80–100 μg m−3. A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) was applied to study the individual contribution of the changes in winds and precipitation to PM2.5 concentrations. This study suggests that the 2015El Nino event had significant effects on air pollution in eastern China, especially in the NCP region, including the capital city of Beijing, in which aerosol pollution was significantly enhanced in the already heavily polluted capital city of China. PMID:27671839

  5. El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

    2013-01-01

    Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

  6. Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Asner, Gregory P.; Townsend, Alan R.; Braswell, Bobby H.

    2000-01-01

    Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.

  7. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite Shows Pacific Running Hot and Cold, September 12, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea-surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on September 12, 1998; these sea surface heights are an indicator of the changing amount of heat stored in the ocean. The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to exhibit the complicated characteristics of both a lingering El Nino, and a possibly waning La Nina situation. This image shows that the rapid cooling of the central tropical Pacific has slowed and this area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased slightly since last month. It is still uncertain, scientists say, that this cold pool will evolve into a long-lasting La Nina situation. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown here in red and white, are still lingering to the north and south of the equator. The coexistence of these two contrasting conditions indicates that the ocean and the climate system remain in transition. These strong patterns have remained in the climate system for many months and will continue to influence weather conditions around the world in the coming fall and winter. The satellite's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1997-98 El Nino because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. The purple areas are about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. The white areas show the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The purple areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal and the blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and

  8. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite shows Pacific Stabilizing, July 11, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on July 11, 1998; sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The purple area in the center of the image is a pulse of cold water moving across the equator which the satellite measures as a region of lower than normal sea level. This image shows that the rapid cooling of the central tropical Pacific has stabilized and this area of low sea level has stayed in about the same place since mid-June. The purple areas are about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. It is not certain yet, if this current cooling trend (shown in purple) will eventually evolve into a long-lasting La Nina situation. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown here in red and white, are still lingering to the north and south of the equator in the center of this image. The effects of El Nino can remain in the climate system for a long time and could still impact weather conditions around the world. The satellite's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1997-98 El Nino because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white areas show the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The purple areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal and the blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the

  9. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Little Change in Pacific, August 13, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea-surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on August 13, 1998; sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The purple area in the center of the image is a pool of cold water that the satellite measures as a region of lower than normal sea level. This image shows that the rapid cooling of the central tropical Pacific has stalled and this area of low sea level has stayed in about the same place for the last two months. The purple areas are about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. It is not certain yet, if this current cooling trend (shown in purple) will eventually evolve into a long-lasting La Nina situation. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown here in red and white, are still lingering to the north and south of the equator. The effects of El Nino can remain in the climate system for a long time and could still impact weather conditions around the world. The satellite's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1997-98 El Nino because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white areas show the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The purple areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal and the blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward

  10. Saturation in coupled oscillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, Ahmed; Hanna, James

    2015-03-01

    We consider a weakly nonlinear system consisting of a resonantly forced oscillator coupled to an unforced oscillator. It has long been known that, for quadratic nonlinearities and a 2:1 resonance between the oscillators, a perturbative solution of the dynamics exhibits a phenomenon known as saturation. At low forcing, the forced oscillator responds, while the unforced oscillator is quiescent. Above a critical value of the forcing, the forced oscillator's steady-state amplitude reaches a plateau, while that of the unforced oscillator increases without bound. We show that, contrary to established folklore, saturation is not unique to quadratically nonlinear systems. We present conditions on the form of the nonlinear couplings and resonance that lead to saturation. Our results elucidate a mechanism for localization or diversion of energy in systems of coupled oscillators, and suggest new approaches for the control or suppression of vibrations in engineered systems.

  11. El Nino Election. Grade 12 Lesson. Schools of California Online Resources for Education (SCORE): Connecting California's Classrooms to the World.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mac Donald, David R.; Karayan, Michael S.

    In this lesson plan, the city of Malibu (CA) is at the mercy of the weather phenomenon El Nino. The press secretary for the Mayor of Malibu recognizes an opportunity to turn this potential natural disaster into a re-election campaign. A task force will be assembled to protect the lives and property of the community. Students role play members of…

  12. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Santa Clara County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, William L.; Harp, Edwin L.; Arnal, Caroline H.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $7.6 million in damages were assessed in Santa Clara County.

  13. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Solano County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howell, David G.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $13.5 million in damages were assessed in Solano County.

  14. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Santa Cruz County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baum, Rex L.; Schuster, Robert L.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $14.5 million in damages were assessed in Santa Cruz County.

  15. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Marin County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morrissey, Meghan M.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $2.5 million in damages were assessed in Marin County.

  16. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Contra Costa County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Graymer, Russell W.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $27 million in damages were assessed in Contra Costa County.

  17. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Sonoma County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ramsey, David W.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $21 million in damages were assessed in Sonoma County.

  18. Comparison of shelf currents off central California prior to and during the 1997-1998 El Nino

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Moored current, temperature, salinity, and pressure data were collected at three sites that transect the narrow continental shelf offshore of Davenport, CA, starting in August 1996 and continuing to the spring of 1998. This data set allowed a comparison of oceanographic conditions prior to (8/96-3/97) and during (8/97-3/98) the last major El Nin??o. During this El Nin??o, mean temperatures over the 8-month time period were about 3??C warmer than during the prior year at all of the sites. Correlations between near-surface and near-bottom temperatures, and between near-surface temperature and wind stress decreased during the El Nin??o compared to conditions the year before. The mean alongshore currents were more strongly poleward during El Nin??o at sites over the mid-shelf and near the shelf break. There was a general tendency for the energy in alongshore currents to move toward lower frequencies during the El Nin??o, particularly at the sites farther offshore. The processes that forced the shelf flows changed in relative importance throughout the study. The local alongshore wind stress was less important in driving shelf currents during the El Nin??o when much of the wind-induced upwelling was confined to less than 5 km of the coast. The observed strong poleward shelf currents on the mid- to outer-shelf were not clearly tied to local forcing, but were remotely driven, most likely by slope currents. The response of the Davenport shelf to an El Nin??o event may differ from other areas since the shelf is narrow, the wind forcing is weaker than areas to the north and south, and the shelf may be at times isolated by fronts that form at strong upwelling centers. In the winter, strong storm-related winds are important in driving currents at periods not only in the synoptic wind band, but also for periods on the order of 20 d and longer.

  19. Permanent El Nino Conditions in the Early Pliocene, the Poleward Heat Transport Paradox, and Contemporary Global Warming.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedorov, A. V.; Brierley, C.

    2007-12-01

    Proxy temperature records show that in the early Pliocene, approximately 3 to 5 million years ago, the tropics were characterized by permanently warm El Nino-like conditions. The equatorial Pacific was as warm as in the east as it is in the west today, and the zonal SST gradient along the equator was significantly reduced or absent. Concurrently, major coastal upwelling regions were up to 10 degrees C warmer than they are today. The globally averaged temperatures of the Earth's surface were also substantially higher. This climate state persisted even though the external factors that control climate were essentially the same as at present and the Earth was experiencing greenhouse conditions similar to today's, with the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere comparable to present day values. Thus far, there is no satisfactory explanation for the climate state of the Pliocene, especially for the climate conditions in the tropics and subtropics. State-of-the-art climate models fail to reproduce a permanent El Nino even when forced by CO2 concentrations many times larger than those estimated for the early Pliocene. Predicting the impact on the tropics of global warming caused by anthropogenic factors also remains a serious challenge for climate scientists. Coupled general circulation models yield a wide range of possible scenarios for the region, but many suggest a slightly higher likelihood of an El Nino-like state in global warming. Efforts to predict future global warming should benefit enormously from a better understanding of the state of permanent El Nino which imposes a strong dynamical constraint on both oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Modeling permanent El Nino with atmospheric and oceanic GCMs reveals a poleward heat transport paradox: Calculations with ocean-only models suggest that a permanent El Nino should correspond to a reduced poleward heat transport by the ocean. This is related to a deeper thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which

  20. An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

    1999-01-01

    Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

  1. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - La Nina Still a 'cool' Problem Child, March 23, 2000

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    These TOPEX/Poseidon data, collected over the latest 10-day sampling cycle, March 1 to 11, 2000, show the La Nina condition still exists. The image of sea surface heights reflects unusual patterns of heat storage in the ocean. Sea-surface height is shown relative to normal height (green). The cooler water (blue and purple) measures between 8 and 24 centimeters (3 and 9 inches) lower than normal. The giant horseshoe of warmer water (red and white) continues to dominate the western Pacific with higher than normal sea-surface heights between 8 and 24 centimeters (3 and 9 inches).

    This view of the oceans from TOPEX/Poseidon is an input to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seasonal forecasts. The impacts of current ocean conditions in the Pacific for spring in the U.S., according to Dr. Ants Leetmaa, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, imply drier than normal conditions for much of the southern half of the U.S. Leetmaa says the conditions also indicate above-normal rainfall in the Pacific northwest, and a warmer than normal U.S., except for the west coast where spring conditions will be near normal.

    Scientists continue to debate whether this image hints at the presence of a large, longer lasting climate pattern, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This long-term pattern that covers most of the Pacific Ocean has significant implications for global climate, especially over North America.

    The U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission is managed JPL for the NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  2. Covariant harmonic oscillators and coupled harmonic oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, Daesoo; Kim, Young S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

    1995-01-01

    It is shown that the system of two coupled harmonic oscillators shares the basic symmetry properties with the covariant harmonic oscillator formalism which provides a concise description of the basic features of relativistic hadronic features observed in high-energy laboratories. It is shown also that the coupled oscillator system has the SL(4,r) symmetry in classical mechanics, while the present formulation of quantum mechanics can accommodate only the Sp(4,r) portion of the SL(4,r) symmetry. The possible role of the SL(4,r) symmetry in quantum mechanics is discussed.

  3. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

    The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and

  4. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Indonesia Area, December, 1996 and August, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    These images of the Pacific Ocean near Indonesia were produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The images show sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions during December 1996 and August 1997. The difference in sea level between these months is tied to the movement of warm water away from Indonesia.

    In December (left image), red and white areas indicate the presence of warm, higher than average sea level around Indonesia. At this time, massive amounts of warm water were detected around Indonesia by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The warm, wet air from this water fed the normally heavy rainfall in this region.

    By August 1997 (right image), sea level had dropped well below average as shown by purple areas (sea level at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal). The warm water had shifted east towards the west coast of North and South America, taking the rains with it.

    The white and red areas indicate patterns of unusually high heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal.

    The movement of warm water away from the western Pacific is tied to the weather-disrupting phenomenon known as El Nino. The departure of the large mass of warm water that is normally located near Indonesia has affected where rain clouds form, altered the typical atmospheric patterns and brought devastating drought to Indonesia. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction.

    Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an advisory indicating the presence of the early indications of El

  5. The Feasibility of Predicting Nino 3.4 Index Using a Sparse Approximation Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, X.; Li, T.; Gu, Y.; Zhang, A.

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is one of the principle factors that have significant influence on global climate variability. Due to large mass and great thermal capacity of the oceans, oceanic conditions change relatively slowly and dominant patterns are thus easy to detect. Most of the current research on SSTA make use of PCA methods like EOF or SVD. Though such methods are effective in reducing dimensions, it is always hard to give a physical interpretation of the results and difficult to distinguish the minor eigenvectors from noises. Instead of finding patterns, we put forward a framework for the direct prediction of SSTAs, using a sparse approximation method, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), to reduce the noises in global SST observation. Global SSTA time series in 5°×5° resolution were used to fit each target SSTA vector and the lasso method was utilized to avoid over-fitting. Taking the Nino 3.4 Index as an example, the predictability of the lasso model was studied and the results showed a relatively satisfying prediction skill in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error compared with the results obtained from LDEO 5. Moreover, by taking other climate variables into consideration, we discovered a stable relation between the Nino 3.4 Index and the sea-ice extent anomaly in South Pole at a lead time of around 2 years. In addition, the bootstrapping method was used to resample the coefficients in the sparse regression model so that we could study their statistical property. 14 regressors were reserved suggesting 10 potential indices which have relatively strong relations with the Nino 3.4 Index. Some of the potential indices corresponded well to known climate indices while the rest indicated an undiscovered index in tropical oceans of eastern South America. In conclusion, the lasso method approved its feasibility in climate prediction at a relatively low computation cost, and

  6. SHOCK-EXCITED OSCILLATOR

    DOEpatents

    Creveling, R.

    1957-12-17

    S> A shock-excited quartz crystal oscillator is described. The circuit was specifically designed for application in micro-time measuring work to provide an oscillator which immediately goes into oscillation upon receipt of a trigger pulse and abruptly ceases oscillation when a second pulse is received. To achieve the instant action, the crystal has a prestressing voltage applied across it. A monostable multivibrator receives the on and off trigger pulses and discharges a pulse through the crystal to initiate or terminate oscillation instantly.

  7. Nature's Autonomous Oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Yee, J.-H.; Mayr, M.; Schnetzler, R.

    2012-01-01

    Nonlinearity is required to produce autonomous oscillations without external time dependent source, and an example is the pendulum clock. The escapement mechanism of the clock imparts an impulse for each swing direction, which keeps the pendulum oscillating at the resonance frequency. Among nature's observed autonomous oscillators, examples are the quasi-biennial oscillation and bimonthly oscillation of the Earth atmosphere, and the 22-year solar oscillation. The oscillations have been simulated in numerical models without external time dependent source, and in Section 2 we summarize the results. Specifically, we shall discuss the nonlinearities that are involved in generating the oscillations, and the processes that produce the periodicities. In biology, insects have flight muscles, which function autonomously with wing frequencies that far exceed the animals' neural capacity; Stretch-activation of muscle contraction is the mechanism that produces the high frequency oscillation of insect flight, discussed in Section 3. The same mechanism is also invoked to explain the functioning of the cardiac muscle. In Section 4, we present a tutorial review of the cardio-vascular system, heart anatomy, and muscle cell physiology, leading up to Starling's Law of the Heart, which supports our notion that the human heart is also a nonlinear oscillator. In Section 5, we offer a broad perspective of the tenuous links between the fluid dynamical oscillators and the human heart physiology.

  8. No warmup crystal oscillator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phillips, D. H.

    1982-01-01

    During warmup, crystal oscillators often show a frequency offset as large as 1 part in 10 to the 5th power. If timing information is transferred to the oscillator and then the oscillator is allowed to warmup, a timing error greater than 1 millisecond will occur. For many applications, it is unsuitable to wait for the oscillator to warmup. For medium accuracy timing requirements where overall accuracies in the order of 1 millisecond are required, a no warmup crystal concept was developed. The concept utilizes two crystal oscillator, used sequentially to avoid using a crystal oscillator for timing much higher frequency accuracy once warmed up. The accuracy achieved with practical TCXOs at initial start over a range of temperatures is discussed. A second design utilizing two oven controlled oscillators is also discussed.

  9. Non-linear oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagedorn, P.

    The mathematical pendulum is used to provide a survey of free and forced oscillations in damped and undamped systems. This simple model is employed to present illustrations for and comparisons between the various approximation schemes. A summary of the Liapunov stability theory is provided. The first and the second method of Liapunov are explained for autonomous as well as for nonautonomous systems. Here, a basic familiarity with the theory of linear oscillations is assumed. La Salle's theorem about the stability of invariant domains is explained in terms of illustrative examples. Self-excited oscillations are examined, taking into account such oscillations in mechanical and electrical systems, analytical approximation methods for the computation of self-excited oscillations, analytical criteria for the existence of limit cycles, forced oscillations in self-excited systems, and self-excited oscillations in systems with several degrees of freedom. Attention is given to Hamiltonian systems and an introduction to the theory of optimal control is provided.

  10. Size of the California Brown Pelican Metapopulation During a Non-El Nino Year

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Daniel W.; Henny, Charles J.; Godinez-Reyes, Carlos; Gress, Franklin; Palacios, Eduardo L.; Santos del Prado, Karina; Bredy, James

    2007-01-01

    related to the natural cycles of El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena where very low breeding populations (as low as no nesting in many areas) might be expected to occur in these same areas censused in 2006 at least 40% of the time. From the 2006 aerial survey, extensive commercial and sport-fishing activity, resort/tourist developments and associated human activities along the coastal areas and at offshore islands, and extensive aquacultural (and to a lesser degree, agricultural) developments seen from the Rio Colorado Delta region, Sonora, south at least through San Blas, Nayarit (the southern terminus of our 2006 aerial survey) may result in substantial loss of breeding habitat. Juvenile (young of the 2005 breeding season) plus subadult brown pelicans comprised 28.1% ? 0.33% (mean ? 95% CI) of the total numbers in age-ratio samples. Thus, our overall metapopulation estimate for P. o. californicus in 2006 was 195,900 ? 7,225 individuals.

  11. Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - February thru December, 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This series of six images shows the movement of atmospheric water vapor over the Pacific Ocean during the formation of the 1997 El Nino condition. Higher than normal ocean water temperatures increase the rate of evaporation and the resulting warm moist air rises into the atmosphere altering global weather patterns. Data obtained by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), from late February 1997 to late December 1997, show the movement from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific of high levels of water vapor (red) at 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface. Areas of unusually drier air (blue) appear over Indonesia. December 1997 data also show a rapid increase of water vapor off the coast of South America, the result of very high water temperatures in that region.

  12. Oceanic heat content variability in the Tropical Pacific during the 1982-1983 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Springer, Scott R.; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1990-01-01

    A linear, multimode model forced by observed winds is used to investigate anomolous heat transport and storage during the 1982-1983 El Nino. The study compliments the work of Wyrtki (1985) and of Zebiak and Cane (1987) and contains the ocean dynamics invoked by both these studies to explain heat content anomalies. Model hindcasts are compared with observational evidence derived from the island sea level network. The meridional distribution of heat storage and the components of heat transport are considered. It is found that the mechanisms contributing to heat transport out of bands of latitude symmetric about the equator are isolated and related to the wind anomalies and wave dynamics usually associated with ENSO events. It is noted that although the spatial and temporal distribution of oceanic heat anomalies necessary to initiate an ENSO event can be determined only by studying coupled ocean-atmosphere models, an examination of the oceanic component alone is useful in determining constraints imposed by ocean dynamics.

  13. Rainfall over oceans inferred from Nimbus 7 SMMR - Application to 1982-83 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Short, D. A.; Wiscombe, W.; Fraser, R. S.; Vollmer, B. E.

    1986-01-01

    Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measurements at five frequencies in the region 6.6 to 37 GHz, at a resolution of 155 km, are analyzed to infer precipitation over the global oceans. The microwave data show, on this spatial scale, that the combined liquid water in the clouds and rain increases the brightness temperature almost linearly with frequency in the 6.6-18-GHz region, while at 37 GHz such a simple relationship is not noticed. Further, as the atmospheric water-vapor absorption and the effects of scattering by precipitation particles are relatively weak at 6.6 and 10.7 GHz, a technique to remotely sense the liquid water content in the atmosphere is developed based on the brightness measurements at these two frequencies. Seasonal mean patterns of liquid water content in the atmosphere derived from SMMR over global oceans relate closely to climatological patterns of precipitation. Based on this, an empirical relationship is derived to estimate precipitation over the global oceans, with an accuracy of about + or - 30 percent, on a seasonal basis from satellite measurements made during the three years (1979-81) before the recent El Nino event. The deviations from these three-year means, in the precipitation, produced by the 1982-83 el Nino event are then deduced from the SMMR measurements. In the Pacific, the precipitation over the ITCZ in the north, the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and the oceans around Indonesia is drastically reduced. At the same time a substantial increase in precipitation is observed over the normally dry central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  14. Observations of annual and El Nino thermal and flow variations at 0 deg, 110 deg W and 0 deg, 95 deg W during 1980-1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David

    1987-01-01

    The paper describes the low-frequency (i.e., time scales longer than a month) upper ocean (above 250 m) current and temperature moored measurements conducted from March 1980 to September 1985 at 0, 110 deg W and from July 1981 to November 1983 (i.e., including the period of the 1982-1983 El Nino) at 0, 95 deg W. Estimates of the annual cycle were removed from the observations to determine the current and temperature fluctuations due to the 1982-1983 El Nino. The circulation of the upper ocean was found to be dramatically altered during the El Nino: the normally westward flowing surface current in autumn months reversed direction, and the equatorial undercurrent, normally considered to be a permanent feature, disappeared. Associated with the El Nino was a massive redistribution of heat throughout the mixed layer and the thermocline.

  15. Guiding future research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-05-01

    Much as the recurrent variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect climate and drive strong interannual variability across the planet, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a months-long, semireliable cycle—affects everything from the Indian monsoon to Pacific hurricanes to North American snowfall. Unlike the better known ENSO, which is seen primarily as an interannual oscillation in equatorial Pacific Ocean surface ocean temperatures, MJO is characterized by a transient cycle in Indian Ocean and western Pacific atmospheric behavior—a semiregular shift in tropical convection and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

  16. Southern Exposure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schueler, Donald G.

    1992-01-01

    Discusses results of a Green Index, published by the Institute for Southern Studies, that ranks the 50 states on the basis of 256 environmental indicators. Explores how and why the deep South states are all at the bottom of the list. A vignette provides a comparison between state hazardous waste generation and spending on waste management. (MCO)

  17. Paradoxes of neutrino oscillations

    SciTech Connect

    Akhmedov, E. Kh.; Smirnov, A. Yu.

    2009-08-15

    Despite the theory of neutrino oscillations being rather old, some of its basic issues are still being debated in the literature. We discuss a number of such issues, including the relevance of the 'same energy' and 'same momentum' assumptions, the role of quantum-mechanical uncertainty relations in neutrino oscillations, the dependence of the coherence and localization conditions that ensure the observability of neutrino oscillations on neutrino energy and momentum uncertainties, the question of (in)dependence of the oscillation probabilities on the neutrino production and detection processes, and the applicability limits of the stationary-source approximation. We also develop a novel approach to calculation of the oscillation probability in the wave-packet approach, based on the summation/integration conventions different from the standard one, which allows a new insight into the 'same energy' vs. 'same momentum' problem. We also discuss a number of apparently paradoxical features of the theory of neutrino oscillations.

  18. Oscillations in stellar atmospheres

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costa, A.; Ringuelet, A. E.; Fontenla, J. M.

    1989-01-01

    Atmospheric excitation and propagation of oscillations are analyzed for typical pulsating stars. The linear, plane-parallel approach for the pulsating atmosphere gives a local description of the phenomenon. From the local analysis of oscillations, the minimum frequencies are obtained for radially propagating waves. The comparison of the minimum frequencies obtained for a variety of stellar types is in good agreement with the observed periods of the oscillations. The role of the atmosphere in the globar stellar pulsations is thus emphasized.

  19. Workshop on Harmonic Oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Zachary, W. W. (Editor)

    1993-01-01

    Proceedings of a workshop on Harmonic Oscillators held at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland on March 25 - 28, 1992 are presented. The harmonic oscillator formalism is playing an important role in many branches of physics. This is the simplest mathematical device which can connect the basic principle of physics with what is observed in the real world. The harmonic oscillator is the bridge between pure and applied physics.

  20. Self-oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-04-01

    Physicists are very familiar with forced and parametric resonance, but usually not with self-oscillation, a property of certain dynamical systems that gives rise to a great variety of vibrations, both useful and destructive. In a self-oscillator, the driving force is controlled by the oscillation itself so that it acts in phase with the velocity, causing a negative damping that feeds energy into the vibration: no external rate needs to be adjusted to the resonant frequency. The famous collapse of the Tacoma Narrows bridge in 1940, often attributed by introductory physics texts to forced resonance, was actually a self-oscillation, as was the swaying of the London Millennium Footbridge in 2000. Clocks are self-oscillators, as are bowed and wind musical instruments. The heart is a “relaxation oscillator”, i.e., a non-sinusoidal self-oscillator whose period is determined by sudden, nonlinear switching at thresholds. We review the general criterion that determines whether a linear system can self-oscillate. We then describe the limiting cycles of the simplest nonlinear self-oscillators, as well as the ability of two or more coupled self-oscillators to become spontaneously synchronized (“entrained”). We characterize the operation of motors as self-oscillation and prove a theorem about their limit efficiency, of which Carnot’s theorem for heat engines appears as a special case. We briefly discuss how self-oscillation applies to servomechanisms, Cepheid variable stars, lasers, and the macroeconomic business cycle, among other applications. Our emphasis throughout is on the energetics of self-oscillation, often neglected by the literature on nonlinear dynamical systems.

  1. EXAFS studies on the structure of photoexcited cyclopentadienylnickelnitrosyl(C{sub 5}H{sub 5}NiNO)

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, L.X.; Bowman, M.K.; Montano, A.; Norris, J.R. |

    1993-05-01

    The structures of C{sub 5}H{sub 5}NiNO in a reversible photochemical reaction were studied via EXAFS, FTIR, and optical absorption spectroscopies. A photoexcited intermediate with distinctively different EXAFS, IR, and optical absorption spectra from those of the ground state molecules was generated upon irradiation using 365 mn light at 20K in a 3-methylpentane solution. The reverse reaction was induced by irradiation with 310 mn light. The EXAFS data analysis has shown a 0.12 {Angstrom} elongation of the Ni-N bond and the bending, of Ni-N-0 in the photoexcited intermediate. Several ZINDO calculations were conducted based on the structures obtained from the EXAFS spectroscopy. These calculations reproduced the changes in the optical spectra and the intramolecular electron transfer in C{sub 5}H{sub 5}NiNO.

  2. EXAFS studies on the structure of photoexcited cyclopentadienylnickelnitrosyl(C[sub 5]H[sub 5]NiNO)

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, L.X.; Bowman, M.K.; Montano, A. ); Norris, J.R. Chicago Univ., IL . Dept. of Chemistry)

    1993-01-01

    The structures of C[sub 5]H[sub 5]NiNO in a reversible photochemical reaction were studied via EXAFS, FTIR, and optical absorption spectroscopies. A photoexcited intermediate with distinctively different EXAFS, IR, and optical absorption spectra from those of the ground state molecules was generated upon irradiation using 365 mn light at 20K in a 3-methylpentane solution. The reverse reaction was induced by irradiation with 310 mn light. The EXAFS data analysis has shown a 0.12 [Angstrom] elongation of the Ni-N bond and the bending, of Ni-N-0 in the photoexcited intermediate. Several ZINDO calculations were conducted based on the structures obtained from the EXAFS spectroscopy. These calculations reproduced the changes in the optical spectra and the intramolecular electron transfer in C[sub 5]H[sub 5]NiNO.

  3. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Alameda County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; Brian, Dianne; Houdre, Nicolas

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. In Alameda County more than $20 million in damages were assessed. Debris flows occurred in rural portions of the county, but were only responsible for $400 thousand in damages.

  4. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in San Mateo County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jayko, Angela S.; De Mouthe, Jean; Lajoie, Kenneth R.; Ramsey, David W.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $55 million in damages were assessed in San Mateo County. The only fatality attributed to landsliding in the region during the period occurred in San Mateo County near Loma Mar.

  5. Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Napa County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Godt, Jonathan W.; Savage, William Z.; Wilson, Raymond C.

    1999-01-01

    Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. Napa County was relatively unaffected in comparison to other counties in the region with approximately $1.1 million in damages assessed.

  6. Effects of productivity, consumers, competitors, and El Nino events on food chain patterns in a rocky intertidal community

    SciTech Connect

    Wootton, J.T.; Pfister, C.A.; Paine, R.T.

    1996-11-06

    We experimentally manipulated nutrient input to a rocky intertidal community, using nutrient-diffusing flowerpots, to determine (i) whether nutrients limited intertidal productivity, (ii) how a large-scale oceanographic disturbance (an El Nino event) affected patterns of nutrient limitation, (iii) the relative impacts of molluscan grazers and nutrient limitation, and (iv) if responses to experimental nutrient addition among trophic levels were more consistent with prey-dependent or ratio-dependent food chain models. Nutrients measurably increased the abundance of micrograzers (amphipods and chironomid larvae), but not algal biomass, during the summer of an El Nino years and during the autumn of an El Nino year. Adding nutrients did not affect food chain stability as assessed by temporal variation in algal biomass and micrograzer abundance. Large molluscan grazers caused large reductions in micrograzers and smaller reductions in algae, indicating consistent consumer effects. The results demonstrate that in this intertidal community, nutrient limitation can occur under conditions of nutrient stress, that top-down grazing effects are typically stronger than bottom-up nutrient effects, and that prey-dependent models are more appropriate than ratio-dependent models. 40 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  7. Angular momentum and torques in a simulation of the atmosphere's response to the 1982-83 El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Ponte, R.M.; Rosen, R.D. ); Boer, G.J. )

    1994-04-01

    Anomalies in the angular momentum of the atmosphere (M) during the 1982-83 El Nino event and the torques responsible for these anomalies are investigated using output from the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. Model values of M during the year of the event are generally larger than those for the model climatology, thereby capturing the observed tendency toward higher values of M during El Nino. Differences exist between the model and observations in the timing and amplitude of the largest anomalies, but these differences may be due to natural variability and not necessarily directly associated with the 1982-83 El Nino conditions. In late September and October 1982, the model atmosphere acquires momentum more rapidly than usual, leading to the development of the largest deviations from mean conditions at the end of October. A secondary maximum in the departure from mean M values occurs in January 1983 and is related to a general strengthening of westerly momentum anomalies over the model's tropical and midlatitude regions. Both mountain and tangential stress torques are involved in this episode, but no particular mechanism or region dominates the anomalous exchange of momentum. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Electronically Tuned Microwave Oscillator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakshminarayana, Mysore

    1987-01-01

    Features include low phase noise and frequency stability. Bias-tuned, low-phase-noise microwave oscillator circuit based on npn bipolar transistor and dielectric resonator. Operating at frequency of about 8.4 GHz, oscillator adjusted to give low phase noise, relatively flat power output versus frequency, and nearly linear frequency versus bias voltage.

  9. Investigating Magnetic Oscillations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brueningsen, Christopher A.

    1993-01-01

    Studies magnetic oscillation using an air track. Ceramic magnets are attached to the cart and also are used as dampeners in place of the springs. The resulting oscillations are fairly sinusoidal and is a good example of simple harmonic motion. (MVL)

  10. Active-bridge oscillator

    DOEpatents

    Wessendorf, Kurt O.

    2001-01-01

    An active bridge oscillator is formed from a differential amplifier where positive feedback is a function of the impedance of one of the gain elements and a relatively low value common emitter resistance. This use of the nonlinear transistor parameter h stabilizes the output and eliminates the need for ALC circuits common to other bridge oscillators.

  11. HIGH POWER PULSED OSCILLATOR

    DOEpatents

    Singer, S.; Neher, L.K.

    1957-09-24

    A high powered, radio frequency pulse oscillator is described for generating trains of oscillations at the instant an input direct voltage is impressed, or immediately upon application of a light pulse. In one embodiment, the pulse oscillator comprises a photo-multiplier tube with the cathode connected to the first dynode by means of a resistor, and adjacent dynodes are connected to each other through adjustable resistors. The ohmage of the resistors progressively increases from a very low value for resistors adjacent the cathode to a high value adjacent the plate, the last dynode. Oscillation occurs with this circuit when a high negative voltage pulse is applied to the cathode and the photo cathode is bombarded. Another embodiment adds capacitors at the resistor connection points of the above circuit to increase the duration of the oscillator train.

  12. Oscillators and Oscillations in the Basal Ganglia

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Charles J.

    2015-01-01

    What is the meaning of an action potential? There must be different answers for neurons that oscillate spontaneously, firing action potentials even in the absence of any synaptic input, and those driven to fire from a resting membrane potential. In spontaneously firing neurons, the occurrence of the next action potential is guaranteed. Only variations in its timing can carry the message. Among cells of this type are all those making up the deeper nuclei of the basal ganglia, including both segments of the globus pallidus, the substantia nigra, and the subthalamic nucleus. These cells receive thousands of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic inputs, but no input is required to maintain the firing of the cells; they fire at approximately the same rate when the synapses are silenced. Instead, synaptic inputs produce brief changes in spike timing and firing rate. The interactions among oscillating cells within and among the basal ganglia nuclei produce a complex resting pattern of activity. Normally, this pattern is highly irregular and decorrelates the network, so that the firing of each cell is statistically independent of the others. This maximizes the potential information that may be transmitted by the basal ganglia to its target structures. In Parkinson’s disease, the resting pattern of activity is dominated by a slow oscillation shared by all the neurons. Treatment with deep brain stimulation may gain its therapeutic value