A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.
1985-01-01
A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.
The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary
2000-01-01
In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keppenne, C.
1993-01-01
Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...
El Nino-southern oscillation related fluctuations of the marine carbon cycle
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Winguth, A.M.E.; Heimann, M.; Kurz, K.D.
The yearly increase in global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is not constant, fluctuating around a mean growth rate. Some previous work has been done looking at the relationship of CO2 fluctuations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific. This paper describes the response of the three-dimensional ocean circulation model (Hamburg LSG) coupled on-line with a oceanic carbon cycle model (HAMOCC-3) to realistic wind and air temperature field anomalies. The focus is the marine carbon cycle and the interannual variations of carbon fluxes between ocean and atmosphere during the strong El Nino of 1982/83. 53 refs., 14 figs.
Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Yamagata, Toshio
2014-01-01
The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.
Theileria parva seroprevalence in traditionally kept cattle in southern Zambia and El Nino.
Fandamu, P; Duchateau, L; Speybroeck, N; Marcotty, T; Mbao, V; Mtambo, J; Mulumba, M; Berkvens, D
2005-04-01
Sero-epidemiological surveys involving 27,526 cattle over a period of 8 years show that Theileria parva, the parasite causing East Coast fever (ECF) is found throughout southern Zambia. Higher values of T. parva sero-prevalence were observed in the plateau districts of Monze, Choma and Mazabuka than in the valley districts of Siavonga and Sinazongwe. Our results reveal a strong association between high T. parva sero-prevalence and the presence of the periodic climatic phenomenon known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. More T. parva sero-positive samples were recorded during El Nino years (1997/98) (P<0.001) than other years in the study period. From this association, we conclude that Multiple El Nino Southern Oscillation Indices can be used to predict years with high or low ECF infection prevalence thereby contributing to the improved control of ECF in the area.
Sparkle L. Malone; Christina L. Staudhammer; Steven F. Oberbauer; Paulo Olivas; Michael G. Ryan; Jessica L. Schedlbauer; Henry W. Loescher; Gregory Starr
2014-01-01
This research examines the relationships between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009â2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ...
Solar Influences on El Nino/Southern Oscillation Dynamics Over the Last Millennium
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
2017-12-01
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Nino and La Nina events (`ENSO diversity'), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850-2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Natural forcings are generally small over the 20th century, but when epochs of high/low solar irradiance are compared, distinct shifts in the development and termination of El Nino events can be observed. This indicates that solar variability can indeed have a significant role to play in setting the characteristics of tropical Pacific climate variability. Implications for configuring and evaluating projections of future climate change will be discussed.
The hydroclimatology of the United States during El Nino/Southern Oscillation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dracup, J.A.; Piechota, T.C.; Khachikian, C.S.
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) monthly data are analyzed, building on a previous study that investigated the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on US streamflow. Harmonic analysis is performed using data from 1,035 selected climatological stations, allowing observation of the biennial tendency in climate data. With the middle twelve months defined as the El Nino year (0), an idealized first harmonic fit to a 24-month ENSO composite is computed for each station. By plotting the first harmonic vectors of each station, regions of similar, or coherent, response are identified. The regions identified using PDSI data represent wet conditionsmore » in the Gulf of Mexico (Gm1 and GM2) and central (C) US, and dry conditions in the Pacific northwest (PNW) and northeast (NE) US. The PNW region exhibits the strongest interrelationship between ENSO and extreme drought events. Comparing PDSI data results with other hydroclimatic data (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) reveals consistent responses. The most filtered response is seen in the PDSI and streamflow data, and these data are probably the best measure of the overall hydroclimatic response within a region. Results of this study suggest that conditions in the tropical Pacific (e.g., sea surface temperatures) may be excellent precursors of future climate. These conditions may also enhance long range prediction of droughts and floods for certain regions of the US.« less
El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.
A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric andmore » oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.« less
El Nino Southern Oscillation and Tuna in the Western Pacific
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lehodey, P.; Bertignac, M.; Hampton, J.; Lewis, A.; Picaut, J.
1997-01-01
Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans. Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.
Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by southern oscillation/El Nino, 1900-1979
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chao, B. F.
1985-01-01
The southern oscillation/El Nino (ENSO) is the single most prominent interannual signal in global atmospheric/oceanic fluctuations. The following question is addressed: how important is the angular momentum carried by ENSO in exciting the Earth's Chandler wobble? The question is attacked through a statistical analysis of the coherence spectra (correlation as a function of frequency) between two data sets spanning 1900 to 1979-the southern oscillation index (SOI) time series and the excitation function psi (with x-component psi sub x and y-component psi sub y) of the Chandler wobble derived from the homogeneous ILS (International Latitude Service) polar motion data. The coherence power and phase in the Chandler frequency band (approx. 0.79 to 0.89 cpy) are studied. It is found that, during 1900 to 1979 the coherence between SOI and psi sub x is significant well over the 95% confidence threshold whereas that between SOI and psi sub y is practically nil. Quantitatively, the coherence study shows that ENSO provides some 20% of the observed Chandler wobble excitation power. Since earlier investigations have shown that the total atmospheric/oceanic variation can account for the Chandler wobble excitation at about 20% level, the implication is that ENSO maybe an important (interannual) part of the atmospheric/oceanic variation that is responsible for the Chandler wobble excitation during 1900 to 1979.
Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thomson, Allison M.; Brown, Robert A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o,more » La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
McCabe, Gregory J.; Ault, Toby R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D.
2012-01-01
Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.
El Nino-southern oscillation: A coupled response to the greenhouse effect?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sun, De-Zheng
The purpose of this article to elucidate the link between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and radiative forcing (of which the greenhouse effect is a major part). A unified theory for the tropical Pacific climate is developed by considering the response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere to a changing radiative forcing. The hypothesis is that both the zonal surface sea temperature (SST) gradients and ENSO are a coupled response to the strong radiative heating or the tropical warmth. Owing to ocean-atmosphere interaction, the stronger the radiative heating, the larger the zonal SST gradients. When the SST gradients exceed a critical value,more » however, the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the cold-tongue region is too strong for the coupled system to hold steady. Consequently, the coupled system enters an oscillatory state. These coupled dynamics are examined in a simple mathematical model whose behavior is consistent with the hypothesis. With a linear temperature profile throughout the depth of subsurface ocean, the model predicts that both the magnitude and period of the oscillation increase with increases in radiative forcing or the greenhouse effect. The increase in the magnitude of the oscillation largely comes from an enhancement of the magnitude of the cold anomalies, while the increase in the period mostly comes from a prolonged duration of the warm events. With a profile in which the lapse rate decreases with depth, the sensitivity is more moderate. The simplicity of the model prevents a quantitative simulation of the sensitivity of ENSO to increases in the greenhouse effect, but qualitatively the model results support the empirical interpretation of the prolonged duration of the 1990-1995 ENSO event. 5 refs., 7 figs.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Scherm, H.; Yang, X.B.
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important and best-characterized mechanisms of global climatic variation. Because regional temperature and precipitation patterns are influenced by the ENSO and plant diseases are responsive to these factors, historical disease records may contain an ENSO-related signal. We used cross-spectral analysis to establish coherence and phase relationships between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a measure of the ENSO, and long-term (>40 years) data on wheat stripe rust in five regions of northern China and wheat stem rust in four climatic divisions of the midwestern United States. Monthly SOI values weremore » averaged from March to June and October to March for analysis of the rust data from China and the United States, respectively, based when weather patterns in these regions are influenced by the ENSO. The coherence relationships showed consistent and significant (0.01 {le} P {le} 0.10) cooscillations between the rust and SOI series at temporal scales characteristic of the ENSO. The five stripe rust series were coherent with the SOI series at periodicities of 2.0 to 3.0 and 8.0 to 10.0 years, and three of the four stem rust series were coherent with the SOI series at a periodicity of 6.8 to 8.2 years. The phase relationships showed that, in most cases, the rust and SOI series cooscillated out of phase, suggesting that the associations between them are indirect. In a separate analysis of a shorter (18 years) stripe rust series form the Pacific Northwest of the United States, disease severity was significantly lower during El Nino years (warm phases of the ENSO) than during non-El Nino years (P {le} 0.0222) or during La Nina years (cold phases of the ENSO) (P {le}0.0253). Although no cause-and-effect relationships could be deduced, this analysis identified methods and directions for future research into relationships between climate and disease at extended temporal scales. 34 refs., 5 figs., 1
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.
2011-01-01
El Nino.Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere. ENSO could potentially impact local and global aerosol properties through atmospheric circulation anomalies and teleconnections. By analyzing aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE; often used as a qualitative indicator of aerosol particle size) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Sea ]viewing Wide Field ]of ]view Sensor for the period 2000.2011, we find a strong correlation between the AE data and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) over the tropical Pacific. Over the western tropical Pacific (WTP), AE increases during El Nino events and decreases during La Nina events, while the opposite is true over the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). The difference between AE anomalies in the WTP and ETP has a higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) with the MEI than the individual time series and could be considered another type of ENSO index. As no significant ENSO correlation is found in AOD over the same region, the change in AE (and hence aerosol size) is likely to be associated with aerosol composition changes due to anomalous meteorological conditions induced by the ENSO. Several physical parameters or mechanisms that might be responsible for the correlation are discussed. Preliminary analysis indicates surface wind anomaly might be the major contributor, as it reduces sea ]salt production and aerosol transport during El Nino events. Precipitation and cloud fraction are also found to be correlated with tropical Pacific AE. Possible mechanisms, including wet removal and cloud shielding effects, are considered. Variations in relative humidity, tropospheric ozone concentration, and ocean color during El Nino have been ruled out. Further investigation is needed to fully understand this AE ]ENSO covariability and the underlying physical processes responsible for
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake
2010-01-01
Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Carriquiry, J.D.; Risk, M.J.; Schwarcz, H.P.
The authors analyzed the [delta][sup 18]O and [delta][sup 13]C time-series contained in coral skeletons collected from Isla de Cano, Costa Rica, that survived the 1982-1983 El Nino warming event. Coral [delta][sup 18]O give a record of thermal histories with a precision of [approximately]0.5[degrees]C. For this locality, the authors have determined that the average [Delta][delta][sub w] effect in the coral skeletons is equivalent to 33% of the skeletal [delta][sup 18]O range. Therefore, if [delta][sub w] effects are not compensated for, the annual skeletal-[delta][sup 18]O range displays a temperature range of 1[degrees]C lower than actual values. The isotopic record of Porites lobatamore » skeletons shows simultaneous depletions in [sup 18]O and [sup 13]C at skeletal levels corresponding to 1983, coincident with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Therefore, the El Nino event is not only recorded as negative [delta][sup 18]O anomalies in the skeleton, suggesting the warming of ambient waters, but also in the [delta][sup 13]C signal as negative anomalies, indicating coral bleaching. Contrary to the predictions of the [open quotes][sup 13]C-insolation model[close quotes] that the annual carbon isotope variation should be attenuated with depth in proportion to the decrease in light-intensity variation with depth, the authors found a clear trend where [Delta][delta][minus][sup 13]C increases with depth. Coral bioenergetics, which depends on both coral physiology and ecology, may adequately explain the unexpected increase in [delta][sup 13]C range with depth, without contradicting the seasonal character of [delta][sup 13]C variability with the solar irradiance cycle. Although some authors have determined the presence of hiatuses in the skeletal record due to severe stress and growth cessation, in this study it has been found that skeletal growth was not seriously diminished during the El Nino year of 1983.« less
The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.
Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomaliesmore » in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1--2 C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1--2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Collins, M.
This paper describes El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability simulated in the second Handley Centre coupled model under control and greenhouse warming scenarios. The model produces a very reasonable simulation of ENSO in the control experiment--reproducing the amplitude, spectral characteristics, and phase locking to the annual cycle that are observed in nature. The mechanism for the model ENSO is shown to be a mixed SST-ocean dynamics mode that can be interpreted in terms of the ocean recharge paradigm of Jin. In experiments with increased levels of greenhouse gases, no statistically significant changes in ENSO are seen until these levels approachmore » four times preindustrial values. In these experiments, the model ENSO has an approximately 20% larger amplitude, a frequency that is approximately double that of the current ENSO (implying more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas), and phase locks to the annual cycle at a different time of year. It is shown that the increase in the vertical gradient of temperature in the thermocline region, associated with the model's response to increased greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increase in the amplitude of ENSO, while the increase in meridional temperature gradients on either side of the equator, again associated with the models response to increasing greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increased frequency of ENSO events.« less
Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Molod, A. M.
2010-01-01
This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.
El Nino During the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2000-01-01
Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.
El Nino During the 1990's: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2000-01-01
Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kousky, V. E.; Kagano, M. T.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.
1984-01-01
The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
2017-12-01
Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.
2017-05-01
Understanding the factors that influence how global climate phenomena, such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affect streamflow behavior is an important area of research in the hydrologic sciences. While large-scale patterns in ENSO-streamflow relationships have been thoroughly studied, and are relatively well-understood, information is scarce concerning factors that affect variation in ENSO responses from one watershed to another. To this end, we examined relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow for 2731 watersheds across the conterminous U.S. from 1970 to 2014 using a novel approach to account for the intermediary role of precipitation. We applied an ensemble of regression techniques to describe relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow as a function of watershed characteristics including: hydroclimate, topography, geomorphology, geographic location, land cover, soil characteristics, bedrock geology, and anthropogenic influences. We found that variability in watershed scale ENSO-streamflow relationships was strongly related to factors including: precipitation timing and phase, forest cover, and interactions between watershed topography and geomorphology. These, and other influential factors, share in common the ability to affect the partitioning and movement of water within watersheds. Our results demonstrate that the conceptualization of watersheds as signal filters for hydroclimate inputs, commonly applied to short-term rainfall-runoff responses, also applies to long-term hydrologic responses to sources of recurrent climate variability. These results also show that watershed processes, which are typically studied at relatively fine spatial scales, are also critical for understanding continental scale hydrologic responses to global climate.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Manty, R.E.
Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer Lamore » Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie
2010-01-01
This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.
El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.
Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S
2009-12-08
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N ...
The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.
1998-06-01
Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2010-01-01
"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2011-01-01
"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David
1999-01-01
The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key
Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schwalm. C. R.; Williams, C. A.; Schaefer, K.; Baker, I.; Collatz, G. J.; Roedenbeck, C.
2011-01-01
The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events
Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.; Chao-li, Liu
2000-01-01
The ??13C of soil carbonate in rhizoconcretions collected from a loess-paleosol sequence in the central United States indicates that growing-season C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated by 35% on a 900 ?? 200 yr time scale during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. The pattern appears in phase with advance and retreat of the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, suggesting influence by paleo-El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles. The ??13C of soil organic matter indicates that the annual average C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated only by 18%, with a periodicity of 450 ?? 100 yr, and closely matched the cyclic pattern of loess-paleosol layers. It suggests a periodic enhancement of the penetration of the Gulf of Mexico air over the region during this time.
Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.
2004-01-01
In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Nin??o events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Nin??o-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.
The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.
El Nino during the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1999-01-01
Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990s has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein, however, appear to mitigate this belief. For example, regarding the frequency and severity of El Nino, the decade of the 1990s is found to compare quite favorably with that of preceding decades. Hence, the 1990s probably should not be regarded as being anomalous. On the other hand, the number of El Nino-related months per decade has sharply increased during the 1990s, as compared to the preceding four decades, hinting of a marginally significant upward trend. Perhaps, this is an indication that the Earth is now experiencing an ongoing global climatic change. Continued vigilance during the new millennium, therefore, is of paramount importance for determining whether or not this "hint" of a global change is real or if it merely reflects a normal fluctuation of climate.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jong-Yeon
2013-01-01
Two distinct roles of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST and the Atlantic Nino, on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are investigated using the observational data from 1980 to 2010 and coupled model experiments. It appears that the NTA SST and the Atlantic Nino can be used as two independent predictors for predicting the development of ENSO events in the following season. Furthermore, they are likely to be linked to different types of El Nino events. Specifically, the NTA SST cooling during February, March, and April contributes to the central Pacific warming at the subsequent winter season, while the negative Atlantic Nino event during June, July, and August contributes to enhancing the eastern Pacific warming. The coupled model experiments support these results. With the aid of a lagged inverse relationship, the statistical forecast using two Atlantic indices can successfully predict various ENSO indices.
The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation to Winter Tornado Outbreaks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson Cook, A. D.; Schaefer, J. T.
2007-12-01
Winter tornado activity (January, February, and March) between 1950 and 2003 was analyzed to determine the possible effect of seasonally averaged sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the ENSO phase, on the location and strength of tornado outbreaks in the United States. Tornado activity was gauged through analyses of tornadoes occurring on tornado days (a calendar day featuring 6 or more tornadoes within the contiguous United States) and strong and violent tornado days (a calendar day featuring 5 or more tornadoes rated F-2 and greater within the contiguous United States). The tornado days were then stratified according to warm (37 tornado days, 14 violent days), cold (51 tornado days, 28 violent days), and neutral (74 tornado days, 44 violent days) winter ENSO phase. It is seen that during winter periods of neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, there is a tendency for United States tornado outbreaks to be stronger and more frequent than they are during winter periods of anomalously warm tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Nino). During winter periods with anomalously cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Nina), the frequency and strength of United States tornado activity lies between that of the neutral and El Nino phase. ENSO related shifts in the preferred location of tornado activity are also observed. Historically, during the neutral phase, tornado outbreaks typically occurred from central Oklahoma and Kansas eastward through the Carolinas. During cold phases, tornado outbreaks have typically occurred in a zone stretching from southeastern Texas northeastward into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. During anomalously warm phases activity was mainly limited to the Gulf Coast States including central Florida. The data are statistically and synoptically analyzed to show that they are not only statistically significant, but also meteorologically reasonable.
Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Tao; Calvo, Natalia; Yue, Jia; Dou, Xiankang; Russell, J. M, III; Mlynczak, M. G.; She, Chiao-Yao; Xue, Xianghui
2013-01-01
Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.
Evolution of the Southern Oscillation as observed by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ardanuy, Philip E.; Kyle, H. Lee; Chang, Hyo-Duck
1987-01-01
The Nimbus-7 satellite has been in a 955-km, sun-synchronous orbit since October 1978. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment has taken approximately 8 years of high-quality data during this time, of which seven complete years have been archived at the National Space Science Data Center. A final reprocessing of the wide-field-of-view channel dataset is underway. Error analyses indicate a long-term stability of 1 percent better over the length of the data record. As part of the validation of the ERB measurements, the archived 7-year Nimbus-7 ERB dataset is examined for the presence and accuracy of interannual variations including the Southern Oscillation signal. Zonal averages of broadband outgoing longwave radiation indicate a terrestrial response of more than 2 years to the oceanic and atmospheric manifestations of the 1982-83 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, especially in the tropics. This signal is present in monthly and seasonal averages and is shown here to derive primarily from atmospheric responses to adjustments in the Pacific Ocean. The calibration stability of this dataset thus provides a powerful new tool to examine the physics of the ENSO phenomena.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras
2017-12-01
Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day - 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.
Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric
2011-01-01
A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Okonkwo, Churchill; Demoz, Belay; Sakai, Ricardo; Ichoku, Charles; Anarado, Chigozie; Adegoke, Jimmy; Amadou, Angelina; Abdullahi, Sanusu Imran
2015-01-01
In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loubere, Paul; Creamer, Winifred; Haas, Jonathan
2013-01-01
South American lake sediment records indicate that El Nino events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) became more frequent after 3000 calendar years BP. The reason for this evolution of ENSO behavior remains in question. An important trigger for ocean-atmosphere state switching in the tropical ocean is the annual cycle of sea surface temperature south of the equator along the margin of South America. This annual cycle can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotope records of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. We provide evidence that these isotope records, as preserved in archeological deposits in coastal central Peru, reflect seasonal paleo-SST. We find that the annual SST cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific became larger over the 4500-2500 calendar year BP interval. This is consistent with increased ENSO variability. The magnification of the annual SST cycle can be attributed to changing insolation, indicating that ENSO is sensitive to the intensity and seasonal timing of solar heating of the southern EEP.
El Niño-southern oscillation influences on the Mahaweli streamflow in Sri Lanka
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zubair, Lareef
2003-01-01
Despite advances over the last two decades in the capacity to predict the evolution of the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and advances in understanding of the relationship between ENSO and climate, there has been little use of climate predictions for water resources management in the tropics. As part of an effort to develop such a prediction scheme, the ENSO influences on streamflow and rainfall in the upper catchment of the Mahaweli river in Sri Lanka were investigated with correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño conditions were often associated with decreased annual flows and La Niña with increased flows. The relationship of streamflow and rainfall with the ENSO index of NINO3 contrasted between January to September and October to December. During El Niño episodes the streamflow declines from January to September, but from October to December there is no clear relationship. On the other hand, rainfall shows a clear increase from October to December and declines during January, February, March, July and August. The simultaneous correlations of NINO3 with the aggregate January to September streamflow (r = -0.50), with January to September rainfall (r = -0.44) and with October to December rainfall (r = 0.48) are all significant at the 99% level. The correlation between one-season-in-advance NINO3 with both January to September streamflow and October to December rainfall remained significant at the 99% level.This study demonstrates the potential of using ENSO-based predictors for a seasonal hydro-climatic prediction scheme in the Mahaweli basin. It shows the significant contrasts in ENSO influence on rainfall and streamflow due to various hydrological processes. It has demonstrated that the potential for prediction is improved by investigating ENSO influences for the appropriate season for the given river catchment.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1989-01-01
El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.
Organization of extratropical transients during El Nino
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hoerling, M.P.; Ting, Mingfang
Four observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are studied to determine the mechanisms responsible for the anomalous extratropical atmospheric circulation during northern winter. A parallel analysis of a GCM's response to El Nino is performed in order to assess if similar mechanisms are operative in the model atmosphere. The observed stationary wave anomalies over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region are found to be similar during the four winters despite appreciable differences in sea surface temperatures. The anomalous transient vorticity fluxes are remarkably robust over the North Pacific during each even, with an eastward extension of the climatological storm track leadingmore » to strong cyclonic forcing near 40[degrees]N, 150[degrees]W. This forcing is in phase with the seasonal mean Aleutian trough anomaly suggesting the important of eddy-mean flow interaction. By comparison, the intersample variability of the GCM response over the PNA region is found to exceed the observed inter-El Nino variability. This stems primarily from a large variability in the model's anomalous transients over the North Pacific. Further analysis reveals that extratropical vorticity transients are the primary mechanism maintaining the stationary wave anomalies over the PNA region during all four observed ENSO winters. In the case of the GCM, the organization of transient eddies is ill defined over the North Pacific, a behavior indicative of model error. A physical model is proposed to explain the robustness of the tropical controlling influence of the extratropical transients in nature. A simple equatorial Pacific heat source directly forces a tropical anticyclone whose phase relative to the climatological tropical anticyclone leads to an eastward extension of the subtropical jet stream. This mechanism appears to be equally effective for a heat source located either in the central or eastern Pacific basin. 36 refs., 14 figs.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thompson, Peter A.; Bonham, Pru; Thomson, Paul; Rochester, Wayne; Doblin, Martina A.; Waite, Anya M.; Richardson, Anthony; Rousseaux, Cecile S.
2015-01-01
The strong La Nina of 2010-2011 provided an opportunity to investigate the ecological impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on coastal plankton communities using the nine national reference stations around Australia. Based on remote sensing and across the entire Australian region 2011 (La Nina) was only modestly different from 2010 (El Nino) with the average temperature declining 0.2 percent surface chlorophyll a up 3 percent and modelled primary production down 14 percent. Other changes included a poleward shift in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Along the east coast, there was a reduction in salinity, increase in nutrients, Chlorophytes and Prasinophytes (taxa with chlorophyll b, neoxanthin and prasinoxanthin). The southwest region had a rise in the proportion of 19-hexoyloxyfucoxanthin; possibly coccolithophorids in eddies of the Leeuwin Current and along the sub-tropical front. Pennate diatoms increased, Ceratium spp. decreased and Scrippsiella spp. increased in 2011. Zooplankton biomass declined significantly in 2011. There was a reduction in the abundance of Calocalanus pavo and Temora turbinata and increases in Clausocalanus farrani, Oncaea scottodicarloi and Macrosetella gracilis in 2011. The changes in the plankton community during the strong La Nina of 2011 suggest that this climatic oscillation exacerbates the tropicalization of Australia.
Greenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Nino? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Latif, M.; Eckert, C.; Kleeman, R.
The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30{degrees}S-60{degrees}N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. 48 refs., 20 figs.
A Brief Overview of the Southern United States Fire Situation January - July 1998
Dale D. Wade
1998-01-01
Unusually wet conditions associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) this past winter had a significant negative impact on prescribed burning operations. In spite of the high rainfall, natural resource managers in Florida still succeeded in treating more than 500,000 acres during the first three months of 1998. (In a typical year about 2,000,000 acres are...
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan
The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less
Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan
2016-06-02
The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less
Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.
2017-08-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.
Geomorphic Effects, Chronologies, and Archaeological Significance of El Nino Floods in Southern Peru
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Magilligan, F. J.; Manners, R.; Goldstein, P.
2003-12-01
The catastrophic effects of large floods have been well documented, on both contemporary and paleo-timecales, especially for the conterminous U.S. Less is known, however, about extreme events in hyper-arid sub-tropical climates where synoptic scale meteorological causes, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, are the driving atmospheric mechanism. This research documents the geomorphic effects of extreme floods in the Moquegua River valley of southern Peru, in the core of the Atacama Desert. Using a combination of geomorphic mapping, hydrolologic modeling, aerial photography, ASTER satellite imagery, and GIS, we document the geomorphic signature of large contemporary floods within the mid-valley section (1500 masl) of the Rio Moquegua. Stratigraphic evidence and paleostage indicators of paleofloods, such as slackwater deposits and preserved high level flood gravels, are used to evidence late Holocene paleoflood magnitude-frequency relationships. On contemporary timescales, channel belt expansion by lateral erosion during large floods, such as the recent '97 and '98 floods, correspond to as much as 30-40 hectares of floodplain loss along the 20 km study reach. Sixty years of repeat aerial photography indicates that channel belt expansion and floodplain erosion commonly occurs along the Rio Moquegua. The frequent resetting of floodplain alluvium conditioned by these large floods is supported by radiocarbon dating of floodplain exposures. These dates indicate that most of the contemporary floodplain alluvium is younger that 560 14C yrs BP. The highest terrace remnants date to 3250 14C yrs BP and record a series of overbank flood gravels. Evidence for the regionally extensive Miraflores ENSO flood, ca. 1300 AD, exists in tributary and along mainstem sections. This flood has been documented along the coasts of Northern Chile to northern Peru, and has been evoked to explain significant social collapse. Our field evidence indicates that it catastrophically affected
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gul, Zhennian
The possibility of a relation among Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere, sunspot Wolf number and SST's in the eastern Pacific during the same interval are analyzed. The band filter and the wavelet method which are capable of finding local periods and amplitudes are used in the data processing. It is shown that the coherence estimates between the series of QBO in Wolf and in lower tropical stratosphere are of order of -0.6. A possible dynamical explanation for skip a beat of QBO linked El Nino suggested by Angel and Gray is presented. Solar activity is a hypothetical mechanism of this skip.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and ...
Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer to Study Typhoon, Tropical Hydrologic Balance and El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, W. Timothy
1995-01-01
The high spatial resolution and global coverage of a spaceborne microwave scatterometer make it a power instrument to study phenomena ranging from typhoon to El Nino Southern Oscillation which have regional and short term economic and ecological impacts as well as effects on long term and global climate changes. In this report, the application of scatterometer data, by itself, to study the intensity and the evolution of typhoon is demonstrated. The potential of combining wind vector and precipitable water derived from two spaceborne sensors to study the hydrologic balance in the tropics is discussed. The role of westerly wind bursts as a precursor of anomalous warming in the equatorial Pacific is investigated with coincident data from microwave scatterometer, altimeter and radiometer.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K.-M.; Weng, Hengyi
1999-01-01
In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.
An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2010-01-01
The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).
On the Cause of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S Variations Associated with El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Cheng, Benny
2004-01-01
The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.
Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Min, W.; Read, W. G.
1998-01-01
This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with
The source of 90-day oscillations at Wake Island
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mitchum, Gary T.
1995-01-01
Energetic 90-day oscillations of sea level have been intermittently observed at Wake Island in the western tropical Pacific during the past 2 decades. The oscillations tend to occur about 1.5 years after El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, to have amplitudes of 10-15 cm, and to persist for about 1 year. Sea surface heights from the Geosat altimeter are used to establish that these signals take the form of Rossby waves and have an energy source near the Big Island of Hawaii, which lies 40 deg of longitude to the east. Sea level and upper layer currents from an eddy-resolving numerical model are examined and suggest that the energy source is eddies generated off the Big Island of Hawaii. These eddies appear to be associated with westward currents that intermittently impinge on the island. Several alternate hypotheses are also discussed and rejected.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palmer, Jonathan; Turney, Chris; Cook, Edward; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan
2017-04-01
The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remains uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning the YD, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study to a 1010-year subfossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between 12,500 to 12,380 cal BP within the YD. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency in the changes to ENSO and Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow during this period. The drivers for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Moore, M.D.
1995-12-31
The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose amore » temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.« less
The Southern Oscillation and Prediction of `Der' Season Rainfall in Somalia.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hutchinson, P.
1992-05-01
Somalia survives in semiarid to arid conditions, with annual rainfall totals rarely exceeding 700 mm, which are divided between two seasons. Many areas are arid, with negligible precipitation. Seasonal totals are highly variable. Thus, any seasonal rainfall forecast would be of significant importance to both the agricultural and animal husbandry communities. An investigation was carried out to determine whether there is a relationship between the Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall. No relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation and rainfall during the midyear `Gu' season, but it is shown that the year-end `Der' season precipitation is attected by the Southern Oscillation in southern and central areas of Somalia. Three techniques were used: correlation, regression, and simple contingency tables. Correlations between the SOI (Southern Oscillation index) and seasonal rainfall vary from zero up to about 0.8, with higher correlations in the south, both for individual stations and for area-averaged rainfall. Regression provides some predictive capacity, but the `explanation' of the variation in rainfall is not particularly high. The contingency tables revealed that there were very few occasions of both high SOI and high seasonal rainfall, although there was a wide scatter of seasonal rainfall associated with a low SOI.It is concluded that the SOI would be useful for planners, governments, and agencies as one tool in food/famine early warning but that the relationships are not strong enough for the average farmer to place much reliance on forecasts produced solely using the SOI.
Enhanced contribution of wetland methane variability during recent El Nino
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Z.; Poulter, B.
2017-12-01
Wetlands are thought to be the dominant contributor to interannual variability in atmospheric methane (CH4) with a strong influence from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, whether the increase in emissions during El Nino droughts versus La Nina pluvial is from wetlands versus fire is unclear. Here we use a terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-wsl that included permafrost and wetland dynamics, and compare how three climate datasets with different temporal resolution (daily: MERRA2, ERA-Interim; monthly: CRU), to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland CH4 emissions from 1980-2016 to compare it against the MEI ENSO index and in-site surface observations. We find that strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 caused a record-high growth rate of wetland CH4 emissions compared to previous decades, which was mainly due to the combined effects of droughts and widespread warming over tropics on soil respiration. Our study will bring new insights into the role of wetlands in driving the variability of atmospheric CH4.
Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.
2002-03-01
The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the
2010-02-04
the QBO [McCormack et al., 2007, and references therein]. However, it is also possible that “feedbacks from below” are a significant contributing cause...DECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE TROPICAL STRATOSPHERE ozone variability from other sources (notably from the equatorial quasi-biennial wind oscillation, or QBO ...work (SH06 and references therein), but with the addition of an ENSO term and including a more complete representation of the QBO : X(t) = µ(i) + βtrendt
Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H
2013-10-29
The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth's system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980-2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher (17)O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and (17)O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and (17)O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that (17)O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sperber, K.R., LLNL
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2009-01-01
Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.
The 2015-2016 El Nino and the Response of the Carbon Cycle: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 Mission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chatterjee, Abhishek; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Feely, R.; Gierach, M.; Gunson, M.; Keeling, R.; Landschuetzer, P.;
2017-01-01
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Nino and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of ÎpCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Nino event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Nino events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.
El Nino-like events during Miocene
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.
El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in themore » laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.« less
El Nino winners and losers declared
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kerr, R.A.
Last spring human forecasters thought they saw signs of an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, a classic El Nino, that could wreak havoc with weather around the globe. Researchers running computer models, on the other hand, saw a slight warming but not enough for an El Nino. The modelers were right. The season for El Ninos has ended and nothing happened. Since the models came online about 5 years ago, there have been two contests to predict El Ninos, which occur every 3 to 7 years, and the models have won both. The models are still experimental, but themore » general feeling is that they're indicating the right trends. The prospect of having reliable El Nino prediction models is good news beyond the small coterie of tropical Pacific specialists. Worldwide weather patterns are closely tied to El Nino cycles.« less
Sensitivity of the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere to Seasonal and Long-Term Climate Forcing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, K.-M.; Lau, K.-M.
1999-01-01
Since the pioneer works of Bjerknes (1966,1969) many studies have been conducted to understand the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These studies have led to a basic understanding of the dynamics of El Nino. Central to the couple dynamics of ENSO is the delayed action oscillator theory (Suarez and Schopf 1988), which successfully describes the cyclic feature of El Nino. While the oscillatory feature of El Nino is reasonably well understood, the irregularity of El Nino, the effect of monsoon on ENSO, and the response of coupled system to the global warming are still under debate. In the present study, we attempt to provide some theoretical understanding of possible impacts of seasonal cycle, monsoon, and climate changes on ENSO using intermediate coupled model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meehl, Gerald A.; van Loon, Harry; Arblaster, Julie M.
2017-07-01
The semiannual oscillation (SAO) is a twice-yearly northward movement (in May-June-July (MJJ) and November-December-January (NDJ)) of the circumpolar trough of sea level pressure (SLP) in the Southern Hemisphere with effects throughout the troposphere. During MJJ the second harmonic of SLP, describing the SAO, has low values of SLP north of 50°S in the subtropical South Pacific, while the first harmonic, which is dominant over the Australian sector, increases to its peak. This once-a-year peak in negative SLP gradients (decreasing to the east) between Australia and the ocean to its east extends to the equatorial Pacific. Southern Oscillation warm events since 1950, with an intensification of this seasonal cycle, have larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in MJJ and during the following mature phase in NDJ. Weak amplification of the seasonal cycle in MJJ tends to be followed by larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during NDJ.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xu, J.S.
1992-05-01
Two quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical atmosphere with similar oscillation period-the stratospheric quasi-biennial and the Southern oscillations-and the relationship between these two oscillations are examined using the Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis technique. The POP analysis of the equatorial stratospheric dataset provides a compact description of the QBO. The oscillation features identified by the POP analysis, namely, the spatial structure, the characteristic times of the oscillation, and the asymmetry in downward propagation, are almost identical to those found by earlier studies using more conventional analyses. The simultaneous POP analysis of the equatorial zonal surface wind and sea surface temperature indicatesmore » a well-defined cyclic behavior of the SO. In contrast to the very regular QBO, the SO appears to be much more noisy with intermittent quiet phases. A spectral analysis of the complex POP coefficient time series and the SO index reveals a negligible correlation between the two processes. A POP analysis of the combined equatorial dataset of stratospheric wind, zonal surface wind, and SST also indicates no relation between the QBO and the SO. Two independent modes are identified, one of them completely describing the QBO and the other representing the entire SO. No linear relationship is found between the two modes either in space or in time. It is concluded that the SO and the QBO are two independent processes in the tropical atmosphere with similar time scales. 26 refs., 17 figs.« less
Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wood, B. L.; Chang, J.; Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; DAntoni, Hector (Technical Monitor)
1997-01-01
The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dysentery in Shandong province, China.
Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Wang, Guoyong; Hiller, Janet E
2007-01-01
To investigate the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dysentery transmission, the relationship between monthly dysentery cases in Shandong Province of China and the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a broad index of ENSO, was examined over the period 1991-2003. Spearman correlations and generalized linear models were calculated to detect the association between the SOI and dysentery cases. Data from 1991 to 2001 were used to estimate the parameters, while data from 2002 to 2003 were used to test the forecasting ability of the model. After controlling for seasonality, autocorrelation, and a time-lagged effect, the results indicate that there was a significant negative association between the number of dysentery cases and the SOI, with a lagged effect of 2 months. A one-standard-deviation decrease in the SOI might cause up to 207 more dysentery cases per month in Shandong Province. This is the first report of the impact of the Southern Oscillation on dysentery risk in China, indicating that the SOI may be a useful early indicator of potential dysentery risk in Shandong Province.
Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.
2001-01-01
The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988
NASA Applied Sciences' DEVELOP National Program: Summer 2010 Florida Agriculture
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cooley, Zachary C.; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake
2010-01-01
The main agricultural areas in South Florida are located within the fertile land surrounding Lake Okeechobee. The Atlantic Watershed monthly rainfall anomalies showed a weak but statistically significant correlation to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). No other watershed s anomalies showed significant correlations with ONI or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During La Nina months, less sea breeze days and more disturbed days were found to occur compared to El Nino and neutral months. The increase in disturbed days can likely by attributed to the synoptic pattern during La Nina, which is known to be favorable for tropical systems to follow paths that affect South Florida. Overall, neither sea breeze rainfall patterns nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida s main agricultural areas were found to be strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation during our study time.
Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Nino on Pleiades visibility
Orlove; Chiang; Cane
2000-01-06
Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Nino variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June-caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds-is indicative of an El Nino year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Nino variability.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Yi; van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Owe, Manfred
2007-01-01
Spatiotemporal patterns in soil moisture and vegetation water content across mainland Australia were investigated from 1998 through 2005, using TRMMITMI passive microwave observations. The Empirical Orthogonal Function technique was used to extract dominant spatial and temporal patterns in retrieved estimates of moisture content for the top 1-cm of soil (theta) and vegetation moisture content (via optical depth tau). The dominant temporal theta and tau patterns were strongly correlated to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in spring (3 = 0.90), and to a progressively lesser extent autumn, summer and winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index also explained part of the variation in spring 8 and z. Cluster analysis suggested that the regions most affected by ENS0 are mainly located in eastern Australia. The results suggest that the drought conditions experienced in eastern Australia since 2000 an clearly expressed in these satellite observations have a strong connection with ENSO patterns.
ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY
Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keener, V. W.; Feyereisen, G. W.; Lall, U.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Lowrance, R.
2010-02-01
SummaryAs climate variability increases, it is becoming increasingly critical to find predictable patterns that can still be identified despite overall uncertainty. The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation is the best known pattern. Its global effects on weather, hydrology, ecology and human health have been well documented. Climate variability manifested through ENSO has strong effects in the southeast United States, seen in precipitation and stream flow data. However, climate variability may also affect water quality in nutrient concentrations and loads, and have impacts on ecosystems, health, and food availability in the southeast. In this research, we establish a teleconnection between ENSO and the Little River Watershed (LRW), GA., as seen in a shared 3-7 year mode of variability for precipitation, stream flow, and nutrient load time series. Univariate wavelet analysis of the NINO 3.4 index of sea surface temperature (SST) and of precipitation, stream flow, NO 3 concentration and load time series from the watershed was used to identify common signals. Shared 3-7 year modes of variability were seen in all variables, most strongly in precipitation, stream flow and nutrient load in strong El Niño years. The significance of shared 3-7 year periodicity over red noise with 95% confidence in SST and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load time series was confirmed through cross-wavelet and wavelet-coherence transforms, in which common high power and co-variance were computed for each set of data. The strongest 3-7 year shared power was seen in SST and stream flow data, while the strongest co-variance was seen in SST and NO 3 load data. The strongest cross-correlation was seen as a positive value between the NINO 3.4 and NO 3 load with a three-month lag. The teleconnection seen in the LRW between the NINO 3.4 index and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load can be utilized in a model to predict monthly nutrient loads based on short-term climate variability
On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Krzyscin, J.W.
1994-07-01
The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less
Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad
2009-03-01
We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.
Sonia Wharton; Laura Chasmer; Matthias Falk; Kyaw Tha Paw U
2009-01-01
Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use 9 years of eddy covariance...
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena; Loeb, Norman G.
2011-01-01
This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLRCLR are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the relationship between global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies to the El Nino index can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade windsEast Coast fever and multiple El Niño Southern oscillation ranks.
Fandamu, P; Duchateau, L; Speybroeck, N; Mulumba, M; Berkvens, D
2006-01-30
East Coast fever (ECF), a tick-borne disease of cattle, is a major constraint to livestock development in Africa in general and southern Zambia in particular. Understanding the transmission patterns of this disease complex is very difficult as shown by previous studies in southern and eastern Zambia due to the interplay of risk factors. In this long-term study, we investigated whether global weather changes had any influence on disease transmission in traditionally kept cattle in southern Zambia. The results from this study show a strong association between increased Theileria parva contacts in cattle and the presence of El Niño, clearly linking a simple climatic index to disease outbreaks. We therefore propose that in southern Zambia, the simple and readily available multiple El Niño Southern oscillation index (MEI) ranks be used in planning ECF control programmes and early warning.
Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Hoell, Andrew; Barlow, Mathew; Wheeler, Mathew; Funk, Christopher C.
2014-01-01
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.
McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.
1999-01-01
Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.
The Carbon Cycle Response to Two El Nino Types: Observational Study
Chylek, Petr; Tans, Pieter; Christy, John; ...
2017-11-22
Here, we analyze monthly tropical near surface air temperature and Mauna Loa Observatory carbon dioxide (CO 2) data within 1960-2016 to identify different carbon cycle responses for two El Nino types: El Ninos originating in the central tropical Pacific (CP El Nino) and El Ninos originating in the eastern tropical Pacific (EP El Nino). We find significant differences between the two types of El Nino events with respect to time delay of the CO 2 rise rate that follows the increase in tropical near surface air temperatures caused by El Nino events. The average time lag of the CP Elmore » Nino is 4.0±1.7 months, while the mean time lag of EP El Nino is found to be 8.5±2.3 months. The average lag of all considered 1960-2016 El Ninos is 5.2±2.7 months. In contrast the sensitivity of CO2 growth rate to tropical near surface air temperature increase is determined to be about the same for both El Nino types equal to 2.8±0.9 ppmyr -1K -1 (or 5.9±1.9 GtCyr -1K -1). Our results should be useful for the understanding of the carbon cycle and constraining it in climate models.« less
The Carbon Cycle Response to Two El Nino Types: Observational Study
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chylek, Petr; Tans, Pieter; Christy, John
Here, we analyze monthly tropical near surface air temperature and Mauna Loa Observatory carbon dioxide (CO 2) data within 1960-2016 to identify different carbon cycle responses for two El Nino types: El Ninos originating in the central tropical Pacific (CP El Nino) and El Ninos originating in the eastern tropical Pacific (EP El Nino). We find significant differences between the two types of El Nino events with respect to time delay of the CO 2 rise rate that follows the increase in tropical near surface air temperatures caused by El Nino events. The average time lag of the CP Elmore » Nino is 4.0±1.7 months, while the mean time lag of EP El Nino is found to be 8.5±2.3 months. The average lag of all considered 1960-2016 El Ninos is 5.2±2.7 months. In contrast the sensitivity of CO2 growth rate to tropical near surface air temperature increase is determined to be about the same for both El Nino types equal to 2.8±0.9 ppmyr -1K -1 (or 5.9±1.9 GtCyr -1K -1). Our results should be useful for the understanding of the carbon cycle and constraining it in climate models.« less
The Use of Principal Components in Long-Range Forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chern, Jonq-Gong
Large-scale modes of the global sea surface temperatures and the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are described by principal component analysis. The first and the second SST components well describe the El Nino episodes, and the El Nino index (ENI), suggested in this study, is consistent with the winter Southern Oscillation index (SOI), where this ENI is a composite component of the weighted first and second SST components. The large-scale interactive modes of the coupling ocean-atmosphere system are identified by cross-correlation analysis The result shows that the first SST component is strongly correlated with the first component of geopotential height in lead time of 6 months. In the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution, the El Nino mode strongly influences the winter tropospheric circulation in the mid -latitudes for up to three leading seasons. The regional long-range variation of climate is investigated with these major components of the SST and the tropospheric circulation. In the mid-latitude, the climate of the central United States shows a weak linkage with these large-scale circulations, and the climate of the western United States appears to be consistently associated with the ENSO modes. These El Nino modes also show a dominant influence on Eastern Asia as evidenced in Taiwan Mei-Yu patterns. Possible regional long-range forecasting schemes, utilizing the complementary characteristics of the winter El Nino mode and SST anomalies, are examined with the Taiwan Mei-Yu.
A Connection from Arctic Stratospheric Ozone to El Niño-Southern Oscillation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, F.
2017-12-01
Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to influence the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate. Recently, Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variations have been found to affect the middle-high latitude tropospheric climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This paper demonstrates that the impact of ASO can extend to the tropics, with the ASO variations leading El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 20 months. Using observations, analysis, and simulations, the connection between ASO and ENSO is established by combining the high-latitude stratosphere to troposphere pathway with the extratropical to tropical climate teleconnection. This shows that the ASO radiative anomalies influence the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the anomalous NPO and induced Victoria Mode anomalies link to the North Pacific circulation that then influences ENSO. Our results imply that incorporating realistic and time-varying ASO into climate system models may help to improve ENSO predictions.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer
Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Magadzire, Tamuka; Zinke, Jens; Husak, Gregory J.
2014-01-01
A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred simultaneously with different global atmospheric circulations. This study examines the atmospheric circulation and precipitation during December–March 1950–2010 over the African Continent south of 15∘S, a region hereafter known as Southern Africa, associated with eight tropical Pacific SST expressions characteristic of El Niño and La Niña events. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate the SST expressions of El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal precipitation forcing over Southern Africa associated with the eight SST expressions was investigated in terms of the horizontal winds, moisture budget and vertical motion. El Niño events, with warm SST across the east and central Pacific Ocean and warmer than average SST over the Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation reductions over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation reductions are forced primarily by large-scale mid-tropospheric subsidence associated with anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere. El Niño events with cooler than average SST over the Indian Ocean are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa associated with lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation and mid-tropospheric ascent. La Niña events, with cool SST anomalies over the central Pacific and warm SST over the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation increases are forced primarily by lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation, resulting in mid-tropospheric ascent and an increased flux of moisture into the region.
Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.
2016-12-01
Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Weinheimer, A.L.
Radiolarian distributions and physical oceanographic data from the Santa Barbara basin indicate the following. Strong anti-El Nino periods can be characterized by (1) intermediate radiolarian density, (2) high percentage of transition-central radiolarian fauna, and (3) low percentage and number of warm-water radiolarian fauna. This distribution pattern is attributed to strong wind-driven upwelling and reduced northward transport by the California Countercurrent during anti-El Nino periods. Strong El Nino periods are typically (1) high in radiolarian density, and (2) low in percentage but high in number of warm-water fauna. This distribution is attributed to reduced wind-driven upwelling, enhanced northward countercurrent transport, andmore » geostrophic doming of the cold-water masses in the shear zone between the California Current and California Countercurrent.« less
Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951-2011)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roghani, Rabbaneh; Soltani, Saeid; Bashari, Hossein
2016-04-01
This study aimed to investigate the relationships between southern oscillation and autumn (October-December) rainfall in Iran. It also sought to identify the possible physical mechanisms involved in the mentioned relationships by analyzing observational atmospheric data. Analyses were based on monthly rainfall data from 50 synoptic stations with at least 35 years of records up to the end of 2011. Autumn rainfall time series were grouped by the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SOI phase methods. Significant differences between rainfall groups in each method were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric tests. Their relationships were also validated using the linear error in probability space (LEPS) test. The results showed that average SOI and SOI phases during July-September were related with autumn rainfall in some regions located in the west and northwest of Iran, west coasts of the Caspian Sea and southern Alborz Mountains. The El Niño (negative) and La Niña (positive) phases were associated with increased and decreased autumn rainfall, respectively. Our findings also demonstrated the persistence of Southern Pacific Ocean's pressure signals on autumn rainfall in Iran. Geopotential height patterns were totally different in the selected El Niño and La Niña years over Iran. During the El Niño years, a cyclone was formed over the north of Iran and an anticyclone existed over the Mediterranean Sea. During La Niña years, the cyclone shifted towards the Mediterranean Sea and an anticyclone developed over Iran. While these El Niño conditions increased autumn rainfall in Iran, the opposite conditions during the La Niña phase decreased rainfall in the country. In conclusion, development of rainfall prediction models based on the SOI can facilitate agricultural and water resources management in Iran.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Scholz, Patrick
2017-04-01
This study introduces a novel method of estimating the decay time, mean period and forcing statistics of drought conditions over large spatial domains, demonstrated here for southern part of Europe (10°E - 40°E, 35°N - 50°N). It uses a two-dimensional stochastically forced damped linear oscillator model with the model parameters estimated from a Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis and associated observed power spectra. POP is a diagnostic technique that aims to derive the space-time characteristics of a data set objectively. This analysis is performed on an extended observational time series of 114 years (1902 - 2015) of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for an accumulation period of 12 months (SPEI12), based on the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS v. 3.24) data set. The POP analysis reveals four exceptionally stable modes of variability, which together explain more than 62% of the total explained variance. The most stable POP mode, which explains 16.3% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 14 years and a decay time of 31 years. The real part of POP1 is characterized by a monopole-like structure with the highest loadings over Portugal, western part of Spain and Turkey. The second stable mode, which explains 15.9% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 20 years and a decay time of 26.4 years. The spatial structure of the real part of POP2 has a dipole-like structure with the highest positive loadings over France, southern Germany and Romania and negative loadings over southern part of Spain. The third POP mode, in terms of stability, explains 14.0% of the total variance and is characterized by a period of oscillation of 33 years and a decay time of 43.5 years. The real part of POP3 is characterized by negative loadings over the eastern part of Europe and positive loadings over Turkey. The fourth stable POP mode, explaining 15.5% of the total variance
Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rosenzweig, Cynthia
2000-01-01
Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts
Farming and fishing in the wake of El Nino
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tibbetts, J.
How does the periodic warming of the waters of the central Pacific relate to global climate change and food production? In Queensland, Australia, savvy farmers keep a sharp eye on signs of El Nino, which usually brings drought that withers the state`s winter wheat crop. Returning every four years on average and usually lasting approximately a year, El Nino is an unusual warming in the central Pacific that builds storms and disrupts wind patterns, turning weather upside down in far-removed regions. But El Nino took scientists by surprise when it persisted from 1991 to 1995. This was the first timemore » that El Nino had lasted for more than three years since monitoring began in the 1870s. And true to form, El Nino of 1991-1995 brought extreme drought to Queensland, in north-eastern Australia, drying out farmland and costing the state economy approximately $1 billion (Australian) a year. The drought, for example, dropped rainfall levels to all-time lows in Toowoomba, one of the state`s prime cereal-growing regions.« less
El Nino as an element of a global-scale wave in the atmosphere-ocean system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serykh, Ilya; Sonechkin, Dmitry
2016-04-01
The analyses of the real meteorological and oceanographical data, and long runs of the coupled atmosphere-ocean hydro- thermodynamical models identify a spatial-temporal structure of the main mode of the interannual to decadal climatic variations. This mode looks like a global-scale wave that extends from West to East around the Earth, and varies rhythmically. In fact, the establishment of this wave is a generalization and development of the well-known structures of the so-called "teleconnections" in the ocean-atmosphere system. The known regional structures like ENSO, IOD, PDO, IPO, PNA, NAO, AO, ACW and other can be considered as parts of this global-scale wave. Moving eastward around the Earth, this wave triggers El Nino - Southern oscillation events. An index of this wave is proposed as a sum of normalized anomalies of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature in 20 locations around the globe. It is proven that the power spectrum of this index is not continuous but discrete in its character. Thus, one can suppose that the dynamics of the global-scale wave is nonchaotic, and so predictable with no limit in principle. The index power spectrum reveals statistically significant peaks at the same periods that are inherent to the power spectra of the traditional ENSO indices. The main peaks are at the sub-harmonics of the well-known Chandler wobble (of the ~1.2 year period) in the Earth's pole motion: 3.6; 4.8; 2.4 years. Some other statistically significant peaks also are seen at the super-harmonics of the Luni-Solar nutation (of the ~18.6 year period), and combinational harmonics of the Schwabe's and Hale's solar activity cycles. Based on the eastward propagation of the global-scale wave, a predictor of ENSO events was suggested. It has high correlation (about 0.7) with Nino indices but leads them on about 12 months. The use of this predictor opens a possibility to overcome the Spring Predictability Barrier in ENSO forecasting.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite shows El Nino-related Sea Surface Height, Mar, 14, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather
Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States
Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.
1990-01-01
Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.
El Nino, La Nina, ENSO | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
your local weather Enter your ZIP code GO Enter Search Terms El Nino, La Nina, ENSO Content La Nina is gone, for now May 10, 2018 More On El Nino, La Nina, ENSO Ocean surface temperatures in April 2018 compared to the 1981-2010 average. What's going on with La Niña? March 22, 2018 More On El Nino, La Nina
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Memarian, Hadi; Pourreza Bilondi, Mohsen; Rezaei, Majid
2016-08-01
This work aims to assess the capability of co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) for drought forecasting of Birjand, Iran through the combination of global climatic signals with rainfall and lagged values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) index. Using stepwise regression and correlation analyses, the signals NINO 1 + 2, NINO 3, Multivariate Enso Index, Tropical Southern Atlantic index, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index, and NINO 3.4 were recognized as the effective signals on the drought event in Birjand. Based on the results from stepwise regression analysis and regarding the processor limitations, eight models were extracted for further processing by CANFIS. The metrics P-factor and D-factor were utilized for uncertainty analysis, based on the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. Sensitivity analysis showed that for all models, NINO indices and rainfall variable had the largest impact on network performance. In model 4 (as the model with the lowest error during training and testing processes), NINO 1 + 2(t-5) with an average sensitivity of 0.7 showed the highest impact on network performance. Next, the variables rainfall, NINO 1 + 2(t), and NINO 3(t-6) with the average sensitivity of 0.59, 0.28, and 0.28, respectively, could have the highest effect on network performance. The findings based on network performance metrics indicated that the global indices with a time lag represented a better correlation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Uncertainty analysis of the model 4 demonstrated that 68 % of the observed data were bracketed by the 95PPU and D-Factor value (0.79) was also within a reasonable range. Therefore, the fourth model with a combination of the input variables NINO 1 + 2 (with 5 months of lag and without any lag), monthly rainfall, and NINO 3 (with 6 months of lag) and correlation coefficient of 0.903 (between observed and simulated SPI) was selected as the most accurate model for drought forecasting using CANFIS
Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.
2016-12-01
The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different
Temporal Structure of the Southern Oscillation as Revealed by Waveform and Wavelet Analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Bin; Wang, Yan
1996-07-01
Wavelet transforms (WLT) and waveform transforms (WFT) are effective tools that reveal temporal structure of nonstationary time series. The authors discuss principles and practical aspects of their geophysical applications. The WLT can display variance as a continuous function of time and frequency, but the frequency (time) locality reduces at the high (low) frequency bands. The WFT, on the other hand, provides a sharp view of the locality in both time and frequency, but presents variance by discrete base functions. The two techniques are complementary. The authors use both Morlet WLT and Gabor WFT to analyze temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation (50).The principal period of the SO has experienced two rapid changes since 1872, one in the early 1910s and the other in the mid-1960s. The dominant period was 3-4 years in the earliest four decades (1872-1910), 5-7 years in the ensuing five decades (1911-1960. except the 1920s), and about 5 years in the last two decades (1970-1992). Ale SO also exhibits noticeable amplitude changes. It was most energetic during two periods. 1872-1892 and 1970-1992, but powerless during the 1920s, 1930s. and 1960s. The powerless period is dominated by quasi-biennial oscillation. Excessively strong cold phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle enhance annual variation of SST in the Equatorial eastern and central Pacific. The enhancement, however, appears to be modulated by an interdecadal variation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Gu, Guojun
2003-01-01
This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.
Volcanos and El Nino: Signal separation in northern hemisphere winter
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.
The frequent coincidence of volcanic forcing with El Nino events disables the clear assignment of climate anomalies to either volcanic or El Nino forcing. In order to select the signals, a set of four different perpetual January GCM experiments was performed (control, volcano case, El Nino case and combined volcano/El Nino case) and studied with advanced statistical methods for the Northern Hemisphere winter. The results were compared with observations. The signals for the different forcings are discussed for three variables (temperature, zonal wind and geopotential height) and five levels (surface, 850 hPa. 500 hPa, 200 hPa and 50 hPa). Themore » global El Nino signal can be selected more clearly in the troposphere than in the stratosphere. In contrast, the global volcano signal is strongest in the stratospheric temperature field. The amplitude of the perturbation for the volcano case is largest in the Atlantic region. The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of short-wave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in sub-tropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland are well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is weak in high latitudes during winter. A statistically significant tropospheric signal of El Nino forcing occurs in the subtropics and in the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combined signal is different from a simple linear combination of the separate signals. It leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone and to a somewhat modified pattern. 73 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs.« less
Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel
1998-01-01
The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.
Location, seeding date, and variety interactions on winter wheat yield in Southeastern United States
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
In the Southeast US, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a crop grown during the winter when climate conditions are usually influenced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, an understanding of how management practices can be adjusted to reduce the impact of climate-related risks became impo...
2017-06-01
Coronas , 1920). The dominant pattern of interannual variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has two quasi-periodic states...Validation of Wavewatch-III using TOPEX/ Poseidon data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1718–1733. Coronas , J., 1920: The climate and weather of the
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Returns to Near Normal State, Mar, 14, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather
El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation frequency cascade
Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei -Fei; Timmermann, Axel
2015-10-19
The El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. In this paper, we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Finally, through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclonemore » variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.« less
El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation frequency cascade
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei -Fei; Timmermann, Axel
The El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. In this paper, we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Finally, through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclonemore » variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.« less
Effects of the 2004 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Froidevaux, L.; Read, W. G.; Levelt, P. F.; Bhartia, P. K.
2007-01-01
The global effects of the 2004 El Nino on tropospheric ozone and H2O based on Aura OM1 and MLS measurements are analyzed. Although it was a weak El Nino from a historical perspective, it produced significant changes in these parameters in tropical latitudes. Tropospheric ozone increased by 10-20% over most of the western Pacific region and decreased by about the same amount over the eastern Pacific region. H2O in the upper troposphere showed similar changes but with opposite sign. These zonal changes in tropospheric ozone and H2O are caused by the eastward shift in the Walker circulation in the tropical pacific region during El Nino. For the 2004 El Nino, biomass burning did not have a significant effect on the ozone budget in the troposphere unlike the 1997 El Nino. Zonally averaged tropospheric column ozone did not change significantly either globally or over the tropical and subtropical latitudes.
Pastoral del Nino: Bringing the Abundant Life to Paraguayan Children
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Austin, Ann Berghout; Aquino, Cyle; Burro, Elizabeth
2007-01-01
Pastoral del Nino is transforming children's lives in rural Paraguay. Part of Pastoral Social (Catholic Social Services), Pastoral del Nino's primary focus is to bring "vida en abundancia" (the abundant life) to families by ensuring that mothers survive childbirth and children reach their first birthdays. In addition, the organization…
The global landslide distribution in the 2015-16 El Nino event
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petley, D. N.; Froude, M.
2016-12-01
It is commonly perceived that the global landslide distribution is heavily influenced by the El Nino / La Nina cycle, and that strong El Nino events are associated with a higher than average occurrence of landslides in many areas. Thus, for example, the very intense 1997-98 El Nino event coincided with high incidence of landslides in parts of North America and South America, and elsewhere. However, there is comparatively little systematic analysis on a global basis. The 2015-16 El Nino event was the most intense since 1997-98, and had been anticipated to generate significant landslide impacts. The occurrence of landslides worldwide through the 2015-16 El Nino has been examined using the author's landslide fatality database, which has been compiled since 2002. The data indicates that 2015 was a year with an unusually small number of rainfall-induced landslides, significantly below the long term average and with unusually low consequences. This is primarily because of two key factors: first, the South Asian monsoon was anomalously weak, resulting in low landslide impacts in the Himalayas. Second, the occurrence of intense landfalling tropical cyclones across East Asia was also unusually low. The combined effect of these two sets of meteorological conditions was low landslide occurrence across Asia. Landslide occurrence across the Americas was also low. On the other hand, 2016 is proving to be an unusually intense landslide year. In particular, intense rainfall associated with early part of the South Asian monsoon has resulted in very widespread landsliding across South Asia. This paper examines the lessons that can be learnt from an improved understanding the relationship between El Nino events and global landslide impacts, and reflects upon the capability to anticipate the impacts of future large El Nino events.
Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes: Is ENSO to Blame?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.; Hoyle, Julie E.; Holochwost, Sharon R.; Funkhouser, Sarah
2007-01-01
Scientists have associated the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with extreme climate events such as flooding in California, droughts in Australia, fires in Indonesia, and increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The popular media is constantly attributing individual storms to the ENSO phenomenon. The reality is that a…
Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan
2015-01-01
Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?
An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: Implications for predictability
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chen, D.; Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.
A coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation procedure yields improved forecasts of El Nino for the 1980s compared with previous forecasting procedures. As in earlier forecasts with the same model, no oceanic data were used, and only wind information was assimilated. The improvement is attributed to the explicit consideration of air-sea interaction in the initialization. These results suggest that El Nino is more predictable than previously estimated, but that predictability may vary on decadal or longer time scales. This procedure also eliminates the well-known spring barrier to El Nino prediction, which implies that it may not be intrinsic to the real climatemore » system. 24 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less
The Role of Solar Eclipses in El Nino/La Nina Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chiu, B. C.
2005-08-01
The first hint of the fact that solar eclipses mark the enhanced storms called El Nino or La Nina, came from the article by Robert Allan on analysis of frequencies of these events (2001, perhaps Fourier analysis). One mystery was the cause of a cycle with period 15 to 20 years. But the Saros Series of solar eclipses has a period of 18+ years. Then we had the data from Galapagos Islands for the whole 20th century (Philander 2004). The graph of high and low temperatures indicates El Ninos and La Ninas. A search through charts of solar eclipses for those with good locations for bringing high tides at the Tropics, gave a good picture: those at the eastern coast of the pacific Ocean gave El Ninos, and those at the west gave La Ninas. More than half of the peaks and troughs on the temperature graph can be identified with solar eclipses. We looked more closely at a few events that caused great storms. They are described in J. M. Nash's book, ``El Nino" (2002). The most striking case is that of the 1998 Feb. 22 solar eclipse, which corresponds to the so-called El Nino of 1997-98. In conclusion, I would say that the annual El nino effect is due to the sun's travel between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn. But the enhanced El Niino/La Nina is due to the coming together of sun and moon in the solar eclipses, which seem to come irregularly.
What Is El Nino and How Does It Affect Us?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Biachi, Janine; Nutter, Ann; Price, Jon
This teaching unit provides materials and information about the effects of El Nino on people, the economy, and nature around the world. It is important for students to know the impact El Nino has had on the world. The unit presents information that builds student's interest in other environmental phenomena as well. This unit offers information on…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruchith, R. D.; Sivakumar, V.
2018-04-01
In the present study, we are investigating the role of aerosols-and clouds in modulating the austral summer precipitation (December-February) during ENSO events over southern Africa region for the period from 2002 to2012 by using satellite and complimentary data sets. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and Cloud radiative forcing (CRF) shows distinct patterns for El-Nina and La-Nina years. Further analysis were carried out by selecting the four Southern Africa regions where the precipitation shows remarkable difference during El-Nino and La-Nina years. These regions are R1 (33°S-24°S, 18°E-30°E), R2 (17°S-10°S, 24°E-32°E), R3 (19°S-9°S, 33°E-41°E) and R4 (7°S-0°S, 27°E-36°E). Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) shows considerable differences during these events. In region R1, R2 and R3 AOD shows more abundance in El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years where as in R4 the AOD shows more abundance in La-Nina years. Cloud Droplet Effective radius (CDER) shows higher values during La-Nina years over R1, R2 and R3 regions but in R4 region CDER shows higher values in El-Nino years. Aerosol indirect effect (AIE) is estimated both for fixed cloud liquid water path (CLWP) and for fixed cloud ice path (CIP) bins, ranging from 1 to 300 gm -2 at 25 gm -2 interval over all the selected regions for El-Nino and La-Nina years. The results indicate more influence of positive indirect effect (Twomey effect) over R1 and R3 region during El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years. This analysis reveals the important role of aerosol on cloud-precipitation interaction mechanism illustrating the interlinkage between dynamics and microphysics during austral summer season over southern Africa.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sigro, J.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Giralt, S.; Brunet, M.
2010-05-01
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominating mode of interannual climate variability at global scale (Brönnimann, 2007). ENSO extreme negative and positive phases can significantly influence on climatic conditions in Europe, affecting precipitation mainly in spring and autumn (Mariotti et al., 2002; Moron and Ward 1998), but also during winter (Brönnimann et al., 2007; Pozo-Vázquez et al., 2005). Over the Iberian Peninsula (IP), ENSO teleconnections can modulate the frequency and intensity of precipitation (Brunet and López, 1991; Rodó et al., 1997; Rodríguez-Puebla et al., 1998), with a time-lag between the ENSO and its effect on precipitation ranging from 3 to 21 months (Rodó et al., 1997). Large areas of the IP are also affected by severe droughts during the final months of La Niña years and the initial months of the following year, while other areas are affected by dry conditions during the first months of El Niño years, as well as during the summers and autumns of the following year (Muñoz-Diaz and Rodrigo, 2005; Vicente-Serrano, 2005). Here we explore the possibility that nitrate concentration in the Llobregat River (North-eastern Spain) is influenced by ENSO events, which are modulating precipitation variability over the Western Mediterranean basin. The Southern Oscillation Index during La Niña years, the self-calibrating Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (van der Schrier et al., 2006; Wells et al., 2004), and nitrate concentrations were significantly correlated on a seasonal basis in the Llobregat River, with both drought and nitrate concentrations increasing during positive ENSO phases. Our hypothesis is that initially unusual within-stream nitrate increases would take place, owing to higher-than-normal evaporation from the river. During drought periods, the hydrological deficit favours nitrate accumulation in the catchment's soils and, thus, a decline in allochthonous inputs to the river water would be expectable. Besides, on the late
El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C. A.; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao
2015-11-01
Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.
2016-05-01
NASA’s autonomously flown Global Hawk aircraft flew a series of flights over the Pacific Ocean during February 2016, as part of the NOAA-led mission called Sensing Hazards Operational Unmanned Technology, or SHOUT. This year’s El Nino season offered a unique opportunity for the aircraft to contribute data directly to NOAA’s El Nino Rapid Response field campaign. The campaign is seeking to determine key mechanisms affecting El Niño's impacts on the U.S. and their implications for improving NOAA's observational systems, models and predictions. The Global Hawk aircraft offers both NASA and NOAA scientists an exclusive vantage point to observe atmospheric conditions with the plane's ability to fly at 65,000 feet for a time period up to 30 hours. These long-endurance and high-altitude observations give NOAA scientists the opportunity to see a larger picture of how atmospheric changes in the tropics are directly impacting weather activity in the Western U.S.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 23, 1997
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1997-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 23, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool associated with the El Nino has returned to the volume it was in mid-September after dropping to a temporary low at the beginning of October. The sea surface elevation just north of the El Nino warm pool continues to drop (purple area), enhancing the eastward flowing North Equatorial Counter Current. The intensification of this current is another tell-tale sign of the El Nino phenomenon. This flow contributes to the rise in sea level along the western coasts of the Americas that will progress towards both the north and south poles over the next several months. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21-30 degrees Celsius (70- 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast ofEl Nino influence on Holocene reef accretion in Hawai'i
Rooney, J.; Fletcher, C.; Grossman, E.; Engels, M.; Field, M.
2004-01-01
intertidal zone. We infer that forcing other than relative sea-level rise has altered the natural ability to support reef accretion on Hawaiian insular shelves. The limiting factor in these areas today is wave energy. Numbers of both large North Pacific swell events and hurricanes in Hawai'i are greater during El Nino years. We infer that if these major reef-limiting forces were suppressed, net accretion would occur in some areas in Hawai'i that are now wave-limited. Studies have shown that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was significantly weakened during early-mid Holocene time, only attaining an intensity similar to the current one ca. 5000 yr ago. We speculate that this shift in ENSO may assist in explaining patterns of Holocene Hawaiian reef accretion that are different from those of the present and apparently not related to relative sen-level rise.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leybourne, Bruce; Smoot, Christian; Longhinos, Biju
2014-05-01
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) coupling to south polar magnetic ring currents transfers induction energy to the Southern Geostream ringing Antarctica and underlying its encircling mid-ocean ridge structure. Magnetic reconnection between the southward interplanetary magnetic field and the magnetic field of the earth is the primary energy transfer mechanism between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. Induced telluric currents focused within joule spikes along Geostreams heat the southern Pacific. Alignment of the Australian Antarctic Discordance to other tectonic vortexes along the Western Pacific Rim, provide electrical connections to Earths core that modulate global telluric currents. The Banda Sea Triple Junction, a mantle vortex north of Australia, and the Lake Baikal Continental Rift vortex in the northern hemisphere modulate atmospheric Jetstream patterns gravitationally linked to internal density oscillations induced by these telluric currents. These telluric currents are driven by solar magnetic power, rotation and orbital dynamics. A solar rotation 40 day power spectrum in polarity controls north-south migration of earthquakes along the Western Pacific Rim and manifest as the Madden Julian Oscillation a well-documented climate cycle. Solar plasma turbulence cycles related to Hale flares trigger El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO's), while solar magnetic field strength frequencies dominate global warming and cooling trends indexed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These Pacific climate anomalies are solar-electro-tectonically modulated via coupling to tropical geostream vortex streets. Particularly the section along the Central Pacific Megatrend connecting the Banda Sea Triple Junction (up welling mantle vortex) north of Australia with the Easter Island & Juan Fernandez twin rotating micro-plates (twin down welling mantle vortexes) along the East Pacific Rise modulating ENSO. Solar eruptions also enhance the equatorial ring current located
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, W. Timothy; Mock, Donald R.
1986-01-01
The data distributed by the National Space Science Data Center on the Geophysical parameters of precipitable water, sea surface temperature, and surface-level wind speed, measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus-7, are evaluated with in situ measurements between Jan. 1980 and Oct. 1983 over the tropical oceans. In tracking annual cycles and the 1982-83 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation episode, the radiometer measurements are coherent with sea surface temperatures and surface-level wind speeds measured at equatorial buoys and with precipitable water derived from radiosonde soundings at tropical island stations. However, there are differences between SMMR and in situ measurements. Corrections based on radiosonde and ship data were derived supplementing correction formulae suggested in the databook. This study is the initial evaluation of the data for quantitative description of the 1982-83 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation episode. It paves the way for determination of the ocean-atmosphere moisture and latent heat exchanges, a priority of the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Heat Exchange Program.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleming, S. W.; Dahlke, H. E.
2014-10-01
It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation can be parabolic. The effect has recently been explicitly confirmed in hydrologic responses, though associations are complicated by land surface characteristics and processes, and investigation of water resource implications has been limited to date. Here, we apply an Akaike Information Criterion-based polynomial selection approach to investigate annual flow volume teleconnections for 42 of the northern hemisphere’s largest ocean-reaching rivers. Though we find a rich diversity of responses, parabolic relationships are formally consistent with the data for almost half the rivers, and the optimal model for eight. These highly nonlinear water supply teleconnections could radically alter the standard conceptual model of how water resources respond to climatic variability. For example, the Sacramento river in drought-ridden California exhibits no significant monotonic ENSO teleconnection but a 0.92 probability of a quadratic relationship, reducing mean predictive error by up to 65% and suggesting greater opportunity for climate index-based water supply forecasts than previously appreciated.
On The Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2000-01-01
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5N.-5S., 120-170W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-months long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-months long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50- mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Satellite observations of the 1982-1983 El Nino along the U.S. Pacific coast
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fiedler, P. C.
1984-01-01
Satellite infrared temperature images illustrate several effects of the 1982-1983 El Nino: warm sea-surface temperatures with the greatest anomalies near the coast, weakened coastal upwelling, and changes in surface circulation patterns. Phytoplankton pigment images from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner indicate reduced productivity during El Nino, apparently related to the weakened coastal upwelling. The satellite images provide direct evidence of mesosale changes associated with the oceanwide El Nino event.
Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.
2015-01-01
To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, W. Timothy
1994-01-01
After numerical studies showed that global climate is sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature (Ts), considerabel effort has been devoted to examine the role of surface fluxes in changing upper ocean heat balance and Ts, particularly in the tropical Pacific where interannual signals, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have major economic and ecological impacts.
The 1997/98 El Nino: A Test for Climate Models
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lu, R; Dong, B; Cess, R D
Version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) has been used to demonstrate one means of comparing a general circulation model with observations for a specific climate perturbation, namely the strong 1997/98 El Nino. This event was characterized by the collapse of the tropical Pacific's Walker circulation, caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the El Nino. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. HadAM3 likewise produced the observed collapse of the Walker circulation, and it did a reasonable jobmore » of reproducing the west/east cloud structure changes. This illustrates that the 1997/98 El Nino serves as a useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.« less
El Nino and the Teacher at Sea.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Johnson, Kerry Anne
1998-01-01
Details the experiences of a teacher who spent a month on a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ship. Reports observations of developing El Nino conditions and presents related classroom activities. (DDR)
Lightning activity with rainfall during El Nino and La Nina events over India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinmaker, M. I. R.; Aslam, M. Y.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Chate, D. M.
2017-10-01
This paper appraises the association of lightning flash count (FC) with rainfall using the satellite-borne Lightning Imaging Sensor's (LIS) data along with gridded rainfall data (0.5o × 0.5o) for Indian summer monsoon seasons over 10 years (2001-2010). During strong El Nino years, 2002 and 2009, FCs were greater in magnitude by about 26.5 % and 37 %, than the long-term average, respectively, while during weak El Nino year (2004), it was more by 8 %. During the same years, the rainfall was deficient by about 10 % than the long-term average. Similarly, a rise in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over its average value (by about 15 % and 20 %) reduces the ratio of rainfall to FC (RLR) by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and for weak El Nino year (2004), a 6.5 % rise in AOD lowers the RLR by 20 %. Bowen ratio more by 11 % and 17 % of its average value reduces the RLR by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and, also, Bowen ratio higher by 8 % for 2004 declines RLR by 20 %. On the other hand, Bowen ratio less by 9 % and 6 % raises the RLR by 19 % and 56 % for moderate La Nina year (2007) and strong La Nina year (2010), respectively. Results for the daily rainfall, AOD and Bowen ratio over Indian regions, are discussed for strong El Nino and La Nina years. Correlations of FC with AOD and Bowen ratio of 0.66 and 0.71, respectively, while, that of FC with ONI of 0.56 indicates numerous (fewer) break days during El Nino (La Nina) years.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gomez, F. A.; Lee, S. K.; Liu, Y.; Hernandez, F., Jr.; Lamkin, J. T.
2017-12-01
Previous studies have suggested that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a role in modulating phytoplankton biomass and the reproductive success of marine species in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). However, characterizations of ENSO-related ecosystem responses such as plankton production have not been fully addressed for the region. Here we examine ENSO impacts on biogeochemical processes within coastal and open ocean domains in the GoM, using a three dimensional high-resolution ocean-biogeochemical model, forced with historical surface fluxes and river run-off for 1979 - 2014. Enhanced precipitation across southern US during El Nino winter increases freshwater discharge and nutrient load into the GoM mainly via the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River. Those anomalies lead to reduced salinity and greater concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and plankton production in the northern shelf especially during winter. In addition, the frequency of northerly wind anomalies that cool the upper ocean increases during El Nino. The negative surface heat flux anomalies further decrease vertical thermal stratification and thus increase phytoplankton production during early spring in the northern deep GoM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Mitra Esmaeilzadeh; Ahani, Hossein; Hakimelahi, Hemila
2017-01-01
An effective forecast of the drought definitely gives lots of advantages in regard to the management of water resources being used in agriculture, industry, and households consumption. To introduce such a model applying simple data inputs, in this study a regional drought forecast method on the basis of artificial intelligence capabilities (artificial neural networks) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly series) has been presented in Fars Province of Iran. The precipitation data of 41 rain gauge stations were applied for computing SPI values. Besides, weather signals including Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NINO1+2, anomaly NINO1+2, NINO3, anomaly NINO3, NINO4, anomaly NINO4, NINO3.4, and anomaly NINO3.4 were also used as the predictor variables for SPI time series forecast the next 12 months. Frequent testing and validating steps were considered to obtain the best artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The forecasted values were mapped in verification sector then they were compared with the observed maps at the same dates. Results showed considerable spatial and temporal relationships even among the maps of different SPI time series. Also, the first 6 months forecasted maps showed an average of 73 % agreements with the observed ones. The most important finding and the strong point of this study was the fact that although drought forecast in each station and time series was completely independent, the relationships between spatial and temporal predictions remained. This strong point mainly referred to frequent testing and validating steps in order to explore the best drought forecast models from plenty of produced ANNs models. Finally, wherever the precipitation data are available, the practical application of the presented method is possible.
Characteristics of extreme rainfall events in northwestern Peru during the 1982-1983 El Nino period
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldberg, R. A.; Tisnado, G. M.; Scofield, R. A.
1987-01-01
Histograms and contour maps describing the daily rainfall characteristics of a northwestern Peru area most severely affected by the 1982-1983 El Nino event were prepared from daily rainfall data obtained from 66 stations in this area during the El Nino event, and during the same 8-month intervals for the two years preceding and following the event. These data were analyzed, in conjunction with the anlysis of visible and IR satellite images, for cloud characteristics and structure. The results present a comparison of the rainfall characteristics as a function of elevation, geographic location, and the time of year for the El Nino and non-El Nino periods.
Tsipis, Athanassios C
2017-07-15
The (nitro)(N-methyldithiocarbamato)(trimethylphospane)nickel(II), [Ni(NO 2 )(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 )] complex catalyses efficiently the O-atom transfer reactions to CO and acetylene. Energetically feasible sequence of elementary steps involved in the catalytic cycle of the air oxidation of CO and acetylene are proposed promoted by the Ni(NO 2 )(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 )] ↔ Ni(NO 2 )(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 ) redox couple using DFT methods both in vacuum and dichloromethane solutions. The catalytic air oxidation of HC≡CH involves formation of a five-member metallacycle intermediate, via a [3 + 2] cyclo-addition reaction of HC≡CH to the Ni-N = O moiety of the Ni(NO 2 )(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 )] complex, followed by a β H-atom migration toward the C α carbon atom of the coordinated acetylene and release of the oxidation product (ketene). The geometric and energetic reaction profile for the reversible [Ni( κN1-NO 2 )(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 )] ⇌ [Ni( κO,O2-ONO)(S 2 CNHMe)(PMe 3 )] linkage isomerization has also been modeled by DFT calculations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ardanuy, Phillip E.; Hucek, Richard R.; Groveman, Brian S.; Kyle, H. Lee
1987-01-01
A deconvolution technique is employed that permits recovery of daily averaged earth radiation budget (ERB) parameters at the top of the atmosphere from a set of the Nimbus 7 ERB wide field of view (WFOV) measurements. Improvements in both the spatial resolution of the resultant fields and in the fidelity of the time averages is obtained. The algorithm is evaluated on a set of months during the period 1980-1983. The albedo, outgoing long-wave radiation, and net radiation parameters are analyzed. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-stationary patterns that appear in the spatially deconvolved fields describe the radiation budget components for 'normal' as well as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode years. They delineate the seasonal development of large-scale features inherent in the earth's radiation budget as well as the natural variability of interannual differences. These features are underscored by the powerful emergence of the 1982-1983 ENSO event in the fields displayed. The conclusion is that with this type of resolution enhancement, WFOV radiometers provide a useful tool for the observation of the contemporary climate and its variability.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1998-01-01
On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred
Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
McCabe, G.J.; Muller, R.A.
2002-01-01
Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nin??o and La Nin??a events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies 1??C (El Nin??o events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nin??o events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nin??a events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nin??o events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nin??a conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nin??a events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.
Modulation of Atlantic Aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tian, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Wong, S.
2010-01-01
Much like the better-known EI Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale atmospheric phenomenon. The MJO involves periodic, systematic changes in the distribution of clouds and precipitation over the western Pacific and Indian oceans, along with differences in wind intensity over even more extensive areas, including the north and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The lead authors of this paper developed a sophisticated mathematical technique for mapping the spatial and temporal behavior of changes in the atmosphere produced by the MJO. In a previous paper, we applied this technique to search for modulation of airborne particle amount in the eastern hemisphere associated with the "wet" (cloudy) vs. "dry" phases of the MJO. The study used primarily AVHRR, MODIS, and TOMS satellite-retrieved aerosol amount, but concluded that other factors, such as cloud contamination of the satellite signals, probably dominated the observed variations. The current paper looks at MJO modulation of desert dust transport eastward across the Atlantic from northern Africa, a region much less subject to systematic cloud contamination than the eastern hemisphere areas studied previously. In this case, a distinct aerosol signal appears, showing that dust is transported westward much more effectively during the MJO phase that favors westward-flowing wind, and such transport is suppressed when the MJO reduces these winds. Aside form the significant achievement in identifying such an effect, the result implies that an important component of global dust transport can be predicted based on the phase of the MJO. As a consequence, the impact of airborne dust on storm development in the Atlantic, and on dust deposition downwind of the desert sources, can also be predicted and more accurately modeled.
On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1999-01-01
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region (5 deg N-5 deg S, 120 deg- 170 deg W) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration and recurrence period associated with these extremes vary randomly, as does the sequencing of the extremes. Hence, the frequency of occurrence of these events during the 1990s, especially, for El Nino should not be construed as being significantly different from that of previous epochs. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 8 and 16 months in length for El Nino and about 9 and 18 months in length for La Nina. Likewise, the distribution of recurrence period, especially, for El Nino looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 21 and 50 months in length. Scatter plots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino strongly suggest preferential associations between them, linking shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence period. Because the last known onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, one infers that the onset of the next expected El Nino will not occur until February 2000 or later.
On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2000-01-01
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5 deg. N.,-5 deg. S., 120-170 deg. W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Epochs of phase coherence between El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maraun, D.; Kurths, J.
2005-08-01
We present a modern method used in nonlinear time series analysis to investigate the relation of two oscillating systems with respect to their phases, independently of their amplitudes. We study the difference of the phase dynamics between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon on inter-annual time scales. We identify distinct epochs, especially two intervals of phase coherence, 1886-1908 and 1964-1980, corroborating earlier findings from a new point of view. A significance test shows that the coherence is very unlikely to be the result of stochastic fluctuations. We also detect so far unknown periods of coupling which are invisible to linear methods. These findings suggest that the decreasing correlation during the last decades might be a typical epoch of the ENSO/Monsoon system having occurred repeatedly. The high time resolution of the method enables us to present an interpretation of how volcanic radiative forcing could cause the coupling.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Yang-Yi; Liu, Huixin; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Liu, Libo; Chang, Loren C.
2018-05-01
In this study, we evaluate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in the two dominant temperature diurnal tides, diurnal westward wavenumber 1 (DW1) and diurnal eastward wavenumber 3 (DE3) on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) scale (18-34 months) from 50 to 100 km altitudes. The tides are derived from the 21-year (January 1996-February 2017) Ground-to-Topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) temperature simulations and 15-year (February 2002-February 2017) Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations. The results show that ENSO warm phases shorten the period ( 2 years) of the QBO in DW1 amplitude near the equator and DE3 amplitude at low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the QBO period lengthens ( 2.5 years) during the ENSO neutral and cold phases. Correlation analysis shows the long-lasting effect of ENSO on the tidal QBO in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere.[Figure not available: see fulltext.
J.D. Wolfe; C.J. Ralph
2009-01-01
Climatic changes induced by the El NiñoâSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly influence biological systems; however, climatic variability and multitrophic interactions within tropical latitudes remain poorly understood. We examined relationships between migrant condition and ENSO during spring migration in Costa Rica. Our study is based on correlating an ENSO index with...
Manifestations of motions of the Earth's pole in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation rhythms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serykh, I. V.; Sonechkin, D. M.
2017-02-01
We analyze autocorrelations and power spectra of the time series of monthly mean data characterizing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in the years 1920-2013 and show that the rhythms of El Niño-Southern Oscillation can be interpreted as the responses of the climate system to the external quasi-periodic forcing generated by the motions of the Earth's pole. We conclude that the ENSO phenomenon has no prediction limits.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - October 3, 1997
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1997-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Oct. 3, 1997 as the warm water associated with El Nino (in white) spreads northward along the entire coast of North America from the equator all the way to Alaska. The warm water pool in tropical Pacific resulting from El Nino seems to have stabilized. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one and one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 and 30 C (70 to 85 F), carries the amount of heat equal to 100 times the amount of fossil fuel energy consumed by the entire U.S. population during one year. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an advisoryNASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doi, T.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.
2016-02-01
The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Nino/Nina events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.
Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.
2013-01-01
Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.
Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.
2016-01-01
Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Baek-Min; Choi, Hyesun; Kim, Seong-Joong; Choi, Wookap
2017-02-01
Co-variability between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the austral summer is examined, and it is found that there exists an apparent co-variability of a negative (positive) SAM during the mature period of El Niño (La Niña). However, this co-variability is largely controlled by the small number of strong ENSO cases. When strong ENSO cases are excluded, the correlation becomes non-significant. This behavior in the relationship between SAM and ENSO is supported by a series of general circulation model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature boundary conditions that represent the incremental strengthening of El Niño (La Niña) conditions. The modeled Antarctic sub-polar jet exhibits similar behavior to that identified through observational analysis. Marked changes in both the magnitude and position of the sub-polar jet are largely controlled by particularly strong transient eddy forcing. Planetary wave forcing plays only a minor role in the co-variability, but it can explain in part the asymmetric response of the sub-polar jet between El Niño and La Niña.
Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation
Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan
2014-01-01
Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO. PMID:25197254
Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing
Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele
2017-01-01
El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009–2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic regimes of SOI and SST joint recurrence of annual components. State space geometry of El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics were characterized and compared with other El Niños. Timescales of SOI and SST components ranged from sub-annual to multidecadal. The trajectories of SOI and SST components and the joint recurrence of annual components were dissipative toward chaotic attractors. Periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic regimes were present in the recurrence of trajectories, but chaos–chaos transitions dominated. Influenza pandemics occurred during chaotic regimes of significantly low transitivity dimension (p < 0.0001). El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics had distinct state space geometry (p < 0.0001). Chaotic dynamics explains the aperiodic timing, and varying duration and strength of El Niños. Coupling of all influenza pandemics of the past 140 years to chaotic regimes of low transitivity indicate that ENSO dynamics drives influenza pandemic dynamics. Forecasts models from ENSO dynamics should compliment surveillance for novel influenza viruses. PMID:29218303
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.
El Nino's Family Tree (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Philander, S. G.
2013-12-01
Fluctuations in tropical Pacific rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns involve different processes on different timescales, but nonetheless have certain features (traits) in common so that all can be viewed as members of the same family. Best-known are the children El Niño and La Niña who, in their performance of the Southern Oscillation, move warm surface waters adiabatically back and forth across the Pacific. They and their nephews and nieces in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean all depend on favorable background conditions, especially a suitable depth for the thermocline whose tilt they oscillate to produce SST changes. The parents El Padre and La Madre are in control of that depth and invoke diabatic processes to change it gradually over the course of decades, at times making it so deep that El Niño becomes permanent. This is the spontaneous, natural branch of the family. Another branch responds to external forcing (externally imposed variations in sunlight) and has as members the cycles of the seasons, of obliquity, and of the precession of the equinoxes. These cousins, aunts and uncles of El Niño are protagonists in the drama of the recurrent Ice Ages.
Exploring the Linkage of Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Three Spatial Scales
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luo, L.; Capone, D. G.; Hutchins, D.; Kiefer, D.
2011-12-01
As part of a project examining climate change in the Southern California Bight at the University of Southern California, we studied the linkage of the variability of sea surface temperature across three nested spatial scales, the north Pacific Basin, the West Coast of North American, and the Southern California Bight. Specifically, we analyzed daily GHRSST images between September 1981 and July 2009. In order to remove seasonal changes in temperature and focus upon differences between years, we calculate weekly mean temperature for each pixel from the time series, and then subjected the anomalies for the 3 spatial scales to empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The corresponding temporal expansion coefficients and spatial components (eigenvector) for each EOF mode were then generated to examine the temporal and spatial patterns of SST change. The results showed that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a clear influence on the SST variability across all the three spatial scales, especially the 1st EOF mode which represents the largest variance. The comparison between the time coefficients of the 1st EOF mode and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) suggested that the EOF mode 1 of the Pacific Basin region matched well with almost all the El Nino and La Nina signals while the West Coast of North American captured only the strong signals and the Southern California Bight captures still fewer of the signals. This clearly indicated that the Southern California Bight is relatively insensitive to ENSO signal relative to other locations along the West Coast. The 1st EOF Mode for the West Coast of North American was also clearly influenced by upwelling. The cross correlation coefficient between each pair of the EOF mode 1 temporal expansion coefficients for the three spatial scales suggested that they were significantly correlated to each other. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the SST change was also demonstrated by the temporal variability of
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Khedun, C. Prakash; Mishra, Ashok K.; Bolten, John D.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Kaiser, Ronald A.; Giardino, J. Richard; Singh, Vijay P.
2012-01-01
Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.
Li, Jun; Zhao, Mian; Wei, Shichao; Luo, Zhenhua; Wu, Hua
2015-12-21
Pleistocene climatic oscillations and historical geological events may both influence current patterns of genetic variation, and the species in southern China that faced unique climatic and topographical events have complex evolutionary histories. However, the relative contributions of climatic oscillations and geographical events to the genetic variation of these species remain undetermined. To investigate patterns of genetic variation and to test the hypotheses about the factors that shaped the distribution of this genetic variation in species of southern China, mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nine microsatellite loci of the Omei tree frog (Rhacophorus omeimontis) were amplified in this study. The genetic diversity in the populations of R. omeimontis was high. The phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes and the Bayesian genetic clustering analysis based on microsatellite data both revealed that all populations were divided into three lineages (SC, HG and YN). The two most recent splitting events among the lineages coincided with recent geological events (including the intense uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, QTP and the subsequent movements of the Yun-Gui Plateau, YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations. Significant expansion signals were not detected in mismatch analyses or neutrality tests. And the effective population size of each lineage was stable during the Pleistocene. Based on the results of this study, complex geological events (the recent dramatic uplift of the QTP and the subsequent movements of the YGP) and the Pleistocene glaciations were apparent drivers of the rapid divergence of the R. omeimontis lineages. Each diverged lineages survived in situ with limited gene exchanges, and the stable demographics of lineages indicate that the Pleistocene climatic oscillations were inconsequential for this species. The analysis of genetic variation in populations of R. omeimontis
Application of Recurrent Neural Networks on El Nino Impact on California Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Le, J.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allai, M.
2017-12-01
Following our successful paper on the application for the El Nino season of 2015-2016 over Southern California, we use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. These predictions were bourne out in the resulting data. This paper details the expansion of our system to the climate of the entire California climate as a whole, dealing with inter-relationships and spatial variations within the state.
Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping
2014-10-17
The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase.
Lower stratospheric observations from aircraft and satellite during the 2015/2016 El Nino
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenlof, K. H.; Avery, M. A.; Davis, S. M.; Gao, R. S.; Thornberry, T. D.
2016-12-01
Winter 2015/2016 experienced a strong El Nino that was heavily observed by aircraft, radiosonde and satellite platforms. During the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)/El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) flights of the NASA Global Hawk, in situ ozone measurements were made in the lower stratosphere over the Pacific. These will be contrasted with ozone measurements taken during La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions during past Global Hawk aircraft campaigns. Additionally, lower stratospheric water vapor and ozone measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument and stratospheric ice measurements above the tropopause from the Cloud-Aerosol Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) will be presented. Our aircraft ozone measurements are higher for the El Nino flights than during other missions previously sampled, while zonally averaged lower stratospheric water vapor and central Pacific ice path above the tropopause reached record highs. Implications and possible reasons for these anomalous observations will be discussed. Winter 2015/2016 experienced a strong El Nino that was heavily observed by aircraft, radiosonde and satellite platforms. During the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)/El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) flights of the NASA Global Hawk, in situ ozone measurements were made in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the Pacific. These will be contrasted with ozone measurements made during La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions during past Global Hawk aircraft campaigns. Additionally, UTLS water vapor and ozone measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite instrument and stratospheric ice measurements above the tropopause from the Cloud-Aerosol Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) will be presented. Our aircraft ozone
The Southern Oscillation recorded in the δ18O of corals from Tarawa Atoll
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cole, Julia E.; Fairbanks, Richard G.
1990-10-01
In the western equatorial Pacific, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is characterized by precipitation variability associated with the migration of the Indonesian low pressure cell to the region of the date line and the equator. During ENSO events, Tarawa Atoll (1°N, 172°E) experiences heavy rainfall which has an estimated δ18O of about -8 to -10‰ δ18OSMOW. At Tarawa, sufficient precipitation of this composition falls during ENSO events to alter the δ18O and the salinity of the surface waters. Oxygen isotope records from two corals collected off the reef crest of Tarawa reflect rainfall variations associated with both weak and strong ENSO conditions, with approximately monthly resolution. Coral skeletal δ18O variations due to small sea surface temperature (SST) changes are secondary. These records demonstrate the remarkable ability of this technique to reconstruct variations in the position of the Indonesian Low from coral δ18O records in the western equatorial Pacific, a region which has few paleoclimatic records. The coral isotopic data correctly resolve the relative magnitudes of recent variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Combining the Tarawa record with an oxygen isotopic history from a Galápagos Islands coral demonstrates the ability to distinguish the meteorologic (precipitation) and oceanographic (SST) anomalies that characterize ENSO events across the Pacific Basin over the period of common record (1960-1979). Comparison of the intensity of climatic anomalies at these two sites yields insight into the spatial variability of ENSO events. Isotope records from older corals can provide high-resolution, Pacific-wide reconstructions of ENSO behavior during periods of different climate boundary conditions.
Precipitation Anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean and Possible Links to the Initiation of El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A pattern of variability in precipitation and 1000mb zonal winds for the tropical Indian Ocean during, 1979 to 1999 (AtmIO mode) is described using EOFs. The AtmIO mode consists of a cross-equatorial gradient of precipitation anomalies and equatorial wind anomalies of alternating signs on the Equator. The positive phase is defined as enhanced precipitation to the In "n south of the equator, suppressed precipitation to the north, and anomalous westerlies centered on the island of Sumatra. In September-October 1981, February-March 1990, and October-December 1996 the AtmIO mod-, was positive and there was a significant 30-60 day variability in the gradient of precipitation anomalies. These cases coincided with moderate to heavy ,activity in the Madden-Jullan Oscillation (MJO). Links between the AtmIO, MJO, and El Nino are discussed.
ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.
2018-01-01
It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.
Dynamics of Monsoon-Induced Biennial Variability in ENSO
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.
Ecological controls on water-cycle response to climate variability in deserts.
Scanlon, B R; Levitt, D G; Reedy, R C; Keese, K E; Sully, M J
2005-04-26
The impact of climate variability on the water cycle in desert ecosystems is controlled by biospheric feedback at interannual to millennial timescales. This paper describes a unique field dataset from weighing lysimeters beneath nonvegetated and vegetated systems that unequivocally demonstrates the role of vegetation dynamics in controlling water cycle response to interannual climate variability related to El Nino southern oscillation in the Mojave Desert. Extreme El Nino winter precipitation (2.3-2.5 times normal) typical of the U.S. Southwest would be expected to increase groundwater recharge, which is critical for water resources in semiarid and arid regions. However, lysimeter data indicate that rapid increases in vegetation productivity in response to elevated winter precipitation reduced soil water storage to half of that in a nonvegetated lysimeter, thereby precluding deep drainage below the root zone that would otherwise result in groundwater recharge. Vegetation dynamics have been controlling the water cycle in interdrainage desert areas throughout the U.S. Southwest, maintaining dry soil conditions and upward soil water flow since the last glacial period (10,000-15,000 yr ago), as shown by soil water chloride accumulations. Although measurements are specific to the U.S. Southwest, correlations between satellite-based vegetation productivity and elevated precipitation related to El Nino southern oscillation indicate this model may be applicable to desert basins globally. Understanding the two-way coupling between vegetation dynamics and the water cycle is critical for predicting how climate variability influences hydrology and water resources in water-limited landscapes.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena; Lee, Jae N.
2014-01-01
In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.
Early maritime economy and El Nino events at Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru
Keefer, D.K.; DeFrance, Susan D.; Moseley, M.E.; Richardson, J. B.; Satterlee, D.R.; Day-Lewis, A.
1998-01-01
The archaeological site of Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru, dates to 12,700 to 12,500 calibrated years before the present (10,770 to 10,530 carbon-14 years before the present). It contains some of the oldest evidence of maritime- based economic activity in the New World. Recovered materials include a hearth, lithic cutting tools and flakes, and abundant processed marine fauna, primarily seabirds and fish. Sediments below and above the occupation layer were probably generated by El Nino events, indicating that El Nino was active during the Pleistocene as well as during the early and middle Holocene.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.
2010-01-01
Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woodborne, Stephan; Hall, Grant; Zhang, Qiong
2016-04-01
Palaeoclimate reconstruction using isotopic analysis of tree growth increments has yielded a 1000-year record of rainfall variability in southern Africa. Isotope dendro-climatology reconstructions from baobab trees (Adansonia digitata) provide evidence for rainfall variability from the arid Namib Desert and the Limpopo River Valley. Isotopic analysis of a museum specimen of a yellowwood tree (Podocarps falcatus) yields another record from the southwestern part of the subcontinent. Combined with the limited classic denro-climatologies available in the region these records yield palaeo-rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones as well as the hyper-arid zone over the last 1000 years. Coherent shifts in all of the records indicate synoptic changes in the westerlies, the inter-tropical convergence zone, and the Congo air boundary. The most substantial rainfall shift takes place at about 1600 CE at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Another distinctive feature of the record is a widespread phenomenon that occurs shortly after 1810 CE that in southern Africa corresponds with a widespread social upheaval known as the Difequane or Mfekane. Large scale forcing of the system includes sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The Little Ice Age and Mfekane climate shifts result from different forcing mechanisms, and the rainfall response in the different regions at these times do not have a fixed phase relationship. This complexity provides a good scenario to test climate models. A first order (wetter versus drier) comparison between each of the tree records and a 1000-year palaeoclimate model simulation for the Little Ice Age and Mfekane transitions demonstrates a generally good correspondence.
Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.
2015-01-01
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Jethva, Chintan; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Bencherif, Hassan
2017-06-01
The temperature retrieved from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during January 2002 to September 2015 are used in this study to delineate the differences of middle atmospheric thermal structure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Two stations namely Mt. Abu (24.59°N, 72.70°E) in NH and Reunion Island (21.11°S, 55.53°E) in SH are chosen over sub-tropical regions. Temperature climatology from SABER observations suggests that stratopause is warmer, and upper mesosphere is cooler in NH as compared to SH. Three atmospheric models are used to understand the monthly thermal structure differences for different altitudes. Moreover, semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are studied using Lomb Scargle Periodogram and Wavelet transform techniques. Over NH, summer and winter season are warmer ( 4 K) and cooler ( 3 K) respectively in stratosphere as compared to SH. It is important to note here that Mt. Abu temperature is warmer ( 9 K) than Reunion Island in winter but in summer season Mt. Abu temperature is cooler in upper mesosphere and above mesosphere NH shows warming. Results show that annual oscillations are dominated in both hemisphere as compared to semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations. In upper mesosphere, strength of annual oscillations is substantial in NH, while semi-annual oscillations are stronger in SH. Wavelet analyses found that annual oscillations are significant in NH near mesopause, while semi-annual oscillations are strengthening in SH.
El Nino impacts on seasonal high ozone levels in the lower troposphere
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Linse, E.W. Jr.
The purpose of this paper is to clarify one difficulty in evaluating the control strategies for ozone concentrations. El Nino years may be mistakenly interpreted as periods having improved air quality because of those control programs. In fact, the differences in atmospheric stability and mixing have made some years especially benign for air quality. Improvements or the effectiveness of control programs can only be effectively reviewed if the meteorological signature is removed. It may not be generally known how large the impacts of the El Nino conditions can be.
Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part II. The northern hemisphere atmosphere
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Alexander, M.A.
The influence of midlatitude air-sea interaction on the atmospheric anomalies associated with El Nino is investigated by coupling the Community Climate Model to a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific. Prescribed El Nino conditions, warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific, cause a southward displacement and strengthening of the Aleutian Low. This results in enhanced (reduced) advection of cold Asian air over the west-central (northwest) Pacific and northward advection of warm air over the eastern Pacific. Allowing air-sea feedback in the North Pacific slightly modified the El Nino-induced near-surface wind, air temperature, and precipitation anomalies. The anomalousmore » cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific is more concentric and shifted slightly to the east in the coupled simulations. Air-sea feedback also damped the air temperature anomalies over most of the North Pacific and reduced the precipitation rate above the cold SST anomaly that develops in the central Pacific. The simulated North Pacific SST anomalies and the resulting Northern Hemisphere atmospheric anomalies are roughly one-third as large as those related to the prescribed El Nino conditions in a composite of five cases. The composite geopotential height anomalies associated with changes in the North Pacific SSTs have an equivalent barotropic structure and range from -65 m to 50 m at the 200-mb level. Including air-sea feedback in the North Pacific tended to damp the atmospheric anomalies caused by the prescribed El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. As a result, the zonally elongated geopotential height anomalies over the West Pacific are reduced and shifted to the east. However, the atmospheric changes associated with the North Pacific SST anomalies vary widely among the five cases.« less
Comparison of shelf currents off central California prior to and during the 1997-1998 El Nino
Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.A.
2005-01-01
Moored current, temperature, salinity, and pressure data were collected at three sites that transect the narrow continental shelf offshore of Davenport, CA, starting in August 1996 and continuing to the spring of 1998. This data set allowed a comparison of oceanographic conditions prior to (8/96-3/97) and during (8/97-3/98) the last major El Nin??o. During this El Nin??o, mean temperatures over the 8-month time period were about 3??C warmer than during the prior year at all of the sites. Correlations between near-surface and near-bottom temperatures, and between near-surface temperature and wind stress decreased during the El Nin??o compared to conditions the year before. The mean alongshore currents were more strongly poleward during El Nin??o at sites over the mid-shelf and near the shelf break. There was a general tendency for the energy in alongshore currents to move toward lower frequencies during the El Nin??o, particularly at the sites farther offshore. The processes that forced the shelf flows changed in relative importance throughout the study. The local alongshore wind stress was less important in driving shelf currents during the El Nin??o when much of the wind-induced upwelling was confined to less than 5 km of the coast. The observed strong poleward shelf currents on the mid- to outer-shelf were not clearly tied to local forcing, but were remotely driven, most likely by slope currents. The response of the Davenport shelf to an El Nin??o event may differ from other areas since the shelf is narrow, the wind forcing is weaker than areas to the north and south, and the shelf may be at times isolated by fronts that form at strong upwelling centers. In the winter, strong storm-related winds are important in driving currents at periods not only in the synoptic wind band, but also for periods on the order of 20 d and longer.
QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Oman, L. D.; Li, F.; Slong, I.-S.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.
2010-01-01
The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin
2014-01-01
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214
Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin
2014-01-01
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.
El Nino - La Nina Implications on Flood Hazard Mitigation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
R. French; J. Miller
The effects of El Nino and La Nina periods on the maximum daily winter period depths of precipitation are examined using records from five precipitation gages on the Nevada Test Site. The potential implications of these effects are discussed.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.
2012-04-01
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.
El Nino and the Global Ocean Observing System
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Halpern, David
1999-01-01
Until a decade ago, an often-quoted expression in oceanography is that very few observations are recorded throughout the ocean. Now, the sentiment is no longer valid in the uppermost 10% of the tropical Pacific Ocean nor at the surface of the global ocean. One of the remarkable legacies of the 1985-1994 Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is an in situ marine meteorological and upper oceanographic measurement array throughout the equatorial Pacific to monitor the development and maintenance of El Nino episodes. The TOGA Observing System, which initially consisted of moored- and drifting-buoy arrays, a network of commercial ships, and coastal and island stations, now includes a constellation of satellites and data-assimilating models to simulate subsurface oceanographic conditions. The El Nino and La Nina tropical Pacific Ocean observing system represents the initial phase of an integrated global ocean observing system. Remarkable improvements have been made in ocean model simulation of subsurface currents, but some problems persist. For example, the simulation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) remains an important challenge in the 2S-2N Pacific equatorial wave guide. During El Nino the SEC at the equator is reduced and sometimes the direction is reversed, becoming eastward. Both conditions allow warm water stored in the western Pacific to invade the eastern region, creating an El Nino episode. Assimilation of data is a tenet of faith to correct simulation errors caused by deficiencies in surface fluxes (especially wind stress) and parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes. In the first of two numerical experiments, the Pacific SEC was simulated with and without assimilation of subsurface temperature data. Along the equator, a very weak SEC occurred throughout the eastern Pacific, independent of assimilation of data. However, as displayed in the diagram, in the western Pacific there was no satisfactory agreement between the two
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1999-01-01
During the contemporaneous interval of 1796-1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Nino and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Nino of moderate to stronger strength, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about +/- 0.3 C from normal being warmer during the boreal fall-winter leading up to the El Nino year and cooler during the spring-summer of the El Nino year. Also, the influence of El Nino on Central England temperatures appears to last about 1-2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the change in temperature decreased by about 0.1 - 0.2 C, typically, 1-2 years after the eruption, although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to produce greater changes in temperature than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring-summer appear to produce greater changes in temperature than those occurring in fall-winter.
The impact of El Nino on island ecosystems in the gulf of California
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Polis, G.A.; Hurd, S.D.
The El Nino event of 1992-1993 had significant effects on all functional levels of the terrestrial food web of islands in the Gulf of California. These islands are normally very dry; however, during this El Nino event, annual precipitation was nearly five times the median annual precipitation. This caused tremendous increases in plant cover and a significant rise in aerial arthropod abundance. At first, spiders benefited from increased productivity: in 1992, spiders increased to their highest densities in the three years of the study. However, in 1993, despite continued high plant cover and insect prey abundance, spider densities dropped precipitously.more » This decrease appears to be due to the emergence of numerous parasitoid wasps that formed a hidden trophic influence. Wasps were ineffective at controlling spider densities during dry years due to the absence of their adult food, nectar and pollen from flowering land plants. Abundant flowers during El Nino allowed the wasp population to increase and reproduce successfully.« less
Mariani, Luigi; Zavatti, Franco
2017-09-01
The spectral periods in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed and has been verified how they imprint a time series of European temperature anomalies (ETA), two European temperature time series and some phenological series (dates of cherry flowering and grapevine harvest). Such work had as reference scenario the linear causal chain MCTP (Macroscale Circulation→Temperature→Phenology of crops) that links oceanic and atmospheric circulation to surface air temperature which in its turn determines the earliness of appearance of phenological phases of plants. Results show that in the three segments of the MCTP causal chain are present cycles with the following central period in years (the % of the 12 analyzed time series interested by these cycles are in brackets): 65 (58%), 24 (58%), 20.5 (58%), 13.5 (50%), 11.5 (58%), 7.7 (75%), 5.5 (58%), 4.1 (58%), 3 (50%), 2.4 (67%). A comparison with short term spectral peaks of the four El Niño regions (nino1+2, nino3, nino3.4 and nino4) show that 10 of the 12 series are imprinted by periods around 2.3-2.4yr while 50-58% of the series are imprinted by El Niño periods of 4-4.2, 3.8-3.9, 3-3.1years. The analysis highlights the links among physical and biological variables of the climate system at scales that range from macro to microscale whose knowledge is crucial to reach a suitable understanding of the ecosystem behavior. The spectral analysis was also applied to a time series of spring - summer precipitation in order to evaluate the presence of peaks common with other 12 selected series with result substantially negative which brings us to rule out the existence of a linear causal chain MCPP (Macroscale Circulation→Precipitation→Phenology). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Guillas, Serge; Day, Simon J; McGuire, B
2010-05-28
We present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). We adopt a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to represent the relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for east Pacific sea-level pressure anomalies) from February 1973 to February 2009. We also examine the relationship between the numbers of earthquakes and sea levels, as retrieved by Topex/Poseidon from October 1992 to July 2002. We observe a significant (95% confidence level) positive influence of SOI on seismicity: positive SOI values trigger more earthquakes over the following 2 to 6 months than negative SOI values. There is a significant negative influence of absolute sea levels on seismicity (at 6 months lag). We propose that increased seismicity is associated with ENSO-driven sea-surface gradients (rising from east to west) in the equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in ocean-bottom pressure over the EPR by a few kilopascal. This relationship is opposite to reservoir-triggered seismicity and suggests that EPR fault activity may be triggered by plate flexure associated with the reduced pressure.
Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - Water Vapor Measurement, October, 1997
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1997-01-01
This image shows atmospheric water vapor in Earth's upper troposphere, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument flying aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. These data collected in early October 1997 indicate the presence of El Nino by showing a shift of humidity from west to east (blue and red areas) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the term used when the warmest equatorial Pacific Ocean water is displaced toward the east. The areas of high atmospheric moisture correspond to areas of very warm ocean water. Warmer water evaporates at a higher rate and the resulting warm moist air then rises, forming tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. The MLS instrument, developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, measures humidity at the top of these clouds, which are very moist. This rain is now occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean and has left Indonesia (deep blue region) unusually dry, resulting in the current drought in that region. This image also shows moisture moving north into Mexico, an effect of several hurricanes spawned by the warm waters of El Nino.
Impact of El Nino and La Nina on the meteorological elements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jaiswal, Rajasri Sen; Subitha, T.; Samuthra, G.; Punitha, M.; Vinotha, R.
2016-05-01
The El Nino and La Nina have been found to influence the weather at a remote place. In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of El Nino & La Nina on the surface temperature and rainfall over few selected locations in India and abroad. The study shows that the ENSO affects the surface rainfall; however, the impact is not the same over all the locations. In order to find out whether such influence is latitude sensitive, the study has been performed over locations located at different latitudes and at a fixed longitude. To check if the El Nino/La Nina leaves any impressions on the upper air meteorological elements, the cloud liquid water (CLW), precipitation water (PW), latent heat (LH), freezing level height (HFL) and the bright band height (BBH) over a few locations have been studied from the Earth's surface up to a height of 18 km above. The CLW, PW and LH values have been obtained from the data product 2A12 of the Tropical Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Satellite (TRMM), while that of the BBH and the HFL are obtained from the data product 2A23 of the precipitation radar (PR) onboard the TRMM.
El Niño Southern Oscillation and Leptospirosis Outbreaks in New Caledonia
Weinberger, Daniel; Baroux, Noémie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Ko, Albert I.; Goarant, Cyrille
2014-01-01
Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000–2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks. PMID:24743322
Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGraw, M. C.; Barnes, E. A.; Deser, C.
2016-12-01
Confusion exists regarding the tropospheric circulation response to volcanic eruptions, with models and observations seeming to disagree on the sign of the response. The forced Southern Hemisphere circulation response to the eruptions of Pinatubo and El Chichon is shown to be a robust positive annular mode, using over 200 ensemble members from 38 climate models. It is demonstrated that the models and observations are not at odds, but rather, internal climate variability is large and can overwhelm the forced response. It is further argued that the state of ENSO can at least partially explain the sign of the observed anomalies, and may account for the perceived discrepancy between model and observational studies. The eruptions of both El Chichon and Pinatubo occurred during El Nino events, and it is demonstrated that the SAM anomalies following volcanic eruptions are weaker during El Nino events compared to La Nina events.
ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel
2018-01-01
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases
A comparative study of the time performance between NINO and FlexToT ASICs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sarasola, I.; Nemallapudi, M. V.; Gundacker, S.; Sánchez, D.; Gascón, D.; Rato, P.; Marín, J.; Auffray, E.
2017-04-01
Universitat de Barcelona (UB) and CIEMAT have designed the FlexToT ASIC for the front-end readout of SiPM-based scintillator detectors. This ASIC is aimed at time of flight (ToF) positron emission tomography (PET) applications. In this work we have evaluated the time performance of the FlexToT v2 ASIC compared to the NINO ASIC, a fast ASIC developped at CERN. NINO electronics give 64 ps sigma for single-photon time resolution (SPTR) and 93 ps FWHM for coincidence time resolution (CTR) with 2 × 2 × 5 mm3 LSO:Ce,Ca crystals and S13360-3050CS SiPMs. Using the same SiPMs and crystals, the FlexToT v2 ASIC yields 91 ps sigma for SPTR and 123 ps FWHM for CTR. Despite worse time performace than NINO, FlexToT v2 features lower power consumption (11 vs. 27 mW/ch) and linear ToT energy measurement.
ENSO related SST anomalies and relation with surface heat fluxes over south Pacific and Atlantic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chatterjee, S.; Nuncio, M.; Satheesan, K.
2017-07-01
The role of surface heat fluxes in Southern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using observation and ocean reanalysis products. A prominent dipole structure in SST anomaly is found with a positive (negative) anomaly center over south Pacific (65S-45S, 120W-70W) and negative (positive) one over south Atlantic (50S-30S, 30W-0E) during austral summer (DJF) of El Nino (LaNina). During late austral spring-early summer (OND) of El Nino (LaNina), anomalous northerly (southerly) meridional moisture transport and a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly induces a suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux from the ocean surface over south Pacific. This in turn results in a shallower than normal mixed layer depth which further helps in development of the SST anomaly. Mixed layer thins further due to anomalous shortwave radiation during summer and a well developed SST anomaly evolves. The south Atlantic pole exhibits exactly opposite characteristics at the same time. The contribution from the surface heat fluxes to mixed layer temperature change is found to be dominant over the advective processes over both the basins. Net surface heat fluxes anomaly is also found to be maximum during late austral spring-early summer period, with latent heat flux having a major contribution to it. The anomalous latent heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean surface play important role in the growth of observed summertime SST anomaly. Sea-surface height also shows similar out-of-phase signatures over the two basins and are well correlated with the ENSO related SST anomalies. It is also observed that the magnitude of ENSO related anomalies over the southern ocean are weaker in LaNina years than in El Nino years, suggesting an intensified tropics-high latitude tele-connection during warm phases of ENSO.
Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S variations with El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, O.; Fukumori, I.; Lee, T.; Johnson, G. C.
2004-01-01
Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationship variability in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5 degrees S ??degrees N, 150 degrees W ?? degrees W) over the last two decades is investigated using observational data and model simulation.
Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming
Azad, Sarita; Rajeevan, M.
2016-01-01
EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3–5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3–5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5–3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming. PMID:26837459
El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming
Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.
2009-01-01
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210
Analysis of rainfall over northern Peru during El Nino: A PCDS application
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldberg, R.; Tisnado, G.
1986-01-01
In an examination of GOES satellite data during the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period, the appearance of lee wave cloud patterns was revealed. A correlation was hypothesized relating an anomalous easterly flow across the Andes with the appearance of these wave patterns and with the subsequent onset of intense rainfall. The cloud patterns are belived to be associated with the El Nino period and could be viewed as precursors to significant changes in weather patterns. The ultimate goal of the researchers will be the ability to predict occurrences of rainstorms associated with the appearance of lee waves and related cloud patterns as harbingers of destruction caused by flooding, huaycos, and other catastrophic consequences of heavy and abnormal rainfall. Rainfall data from about 70 stations in northern Peru from 1980 through 1984 were formatted to be utilized within the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS). This time period includes the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period. As an example of the approach, a well-pronounced lee wave pattern was shown from a GOES satellite image of April 4, 1983. The ground truth data were then displayed via the PCDS to graphically demonstrate the increase in intensity and areal distribution of rainfall in the northern Peruvian area in the next 4 to 5 days.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Perigaud C.; Dewitte, B.
The Zebiak and Cane model is used in its {open_quotes}uncoupled mode,{close_quotes} meaning that the oceanic model component is driven by the Florida State University (FSU) wind stress anomalies over 1980-93 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies, and these are used in the atmospheric model component to generate wind anomalies. Simulations are compared with data derived from FSU winds, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud convection, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer SST, Geosat sea level, 20{degrees}C isotherm depth derived from an expendable bathythermograph, and current velocities estimated from drifters or current-meter moorings. Forced by the simulated SST, the atmospheric model ismore » fairly successful in reproducing the observed westerlies during El Nino events. The model fails to simulate the easterlies during La Nina 1988. The simulated forcing of the atmosphere is in very poor agreement with the heating derived from cloud convection data. Similarly, the model is fairly successful in reproducing the warm anomalies during El Nino events. However, it fails to simulate the observed cold anomalies. Simulated variations of thermocline depth agree reasonably well with observations. The model simulates zonal current anomalies that are reversing at a dominant 9-month frequency. Projecting altimetric observations on Kelvin and Rossby waves provides an estimate of zonal current anomalies, which is consistent with the ones derived from drifters or from current meter moorings. Unlike the simulated ones, the observed zonal current anomalies reverse from eastward during El Nino events to westward during La Nina events. The simulated 9-month oscillations correspond to a resonant mode of the basin. They can be suppressed by cancelling the wave reflection at the boundaries, or they can be attenuated by increasing the friction in the ocean model. 58 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.« less
Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Soffen, Gerald A.
1988-01-01
The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.
On the dynamical basis for the Asian summer monsoon rainfall-El Nino relationship
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nigam, S.
The dynamical basis for the Asian summer monsoon rainfall-El Nino linkage is explored through diagnostic calculations with a linear steady-state multilayer primitive equation model. The contrasting monsoon circulation during recent El Nino (1987) and La Nina (1988) years is first simulated using orography and the residually diagnosed heating (from the thermodynamic equation and the uninitialized, but mass-balanced, ECMWF analysis) as forcings, and then analyzed to provide insight into the importance of various regional forcings, such as the El Nino-related heating anomalies over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The striking simulation of the June-August (1987-1988) near-surface and upper-air tropical circulationmore » anomalies indicates that tropical anomaly dynamics during northern summer is essentially linear even at the 150-mb level. The vertical structure of the residually diagnosed heating anomaly that contributes to this striking simulation differs significantly from the specified canonical vertical structure (used in generating 3D heating from OLR/precipitation distributions) near the tropical tropopause. The dynamical diagnostic analysis of the anomalous circulation during 1987 and 1988 March-May and June-August periods shows the orographically forced circulation anomaly (due to changes in the zonally averaged basic-state flow) to be quite dominant in modulating the low-level moisture-flux convergence and hence monsoon rainfall over Indochina. The El Nino-related persistent (spring-to-summer) heating anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, on the other hand, mostly regulate the low-level westerly monsoon flow intensity over equatorial Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and, thereby, the large-scale moisture flux into Sahel and Indochina. 38 refs., 12 figs.« less
An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.
1999-01-01
Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.
Gershunov, A.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Tubbs, T.; Goddard, L.
2000-01-01
Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical - statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Nin??o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January - March season. For El Nin??o winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Nin??a forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Nin??a and El Nin??o winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSO-extreme years.
Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.
2007-05-01
We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.
Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo
2017-08-31
Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo
Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barrett, Hannah G.; Jones, Julie M.; Bigg, Grant R.
2018-02-01
The meteorological information found within ships' logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979-2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830-1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper.
Research on Relation between El Nino Climate and Summer Electricity Consumption
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miao, B.; Lin, J. Y.; Liu, C.
2018-01-01
El Nino is a typical climate phenomena. Such phenomena would have influence on climate in China and furthermore impact the electricity condition. This paper is purposed to explore how El Nino phenomena affecting electricity and make prediction on summer electricity consumption. Since meteorological characteristics are complex and multiplex, a variety of meteorological factors should be considered and the paper used Body Feeling Temperature to measure it. Furthermore, to make prediction on summer electricity, the paper used the Pearson Analysis to measure the correlation between weather and electricity and then extracted the weather-used electricity from the whole society electricity using least square method. Finally, the paper built the model on relation between weather-used electricity and body feeling temperature, and took Beijing as an example to make electricity prediction. The prediction idea and model the paper put forward is reliable and practicable.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson Cook, A. D.; Schaefer, J. T.
2009-12-01
Winter tornado activity (January-March) between 1950 and 2003 was analyzed to determine the possible effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency, location, and strength of tornado outbreaks in the United States. Outbreaks were gauged through analyses of tornadoes occurring on tornado days (a calendar day featuring six or more tornadoes within the contiguous United States) and then stratified according to warm (37 tornado days), cold (51 tornado days), and neutral (74 tornado days) winter ENSO phase. Tornado days were also stratified according to NAO phase (positive, negative, and neutral) as well. Although significant changes in the frequency of tornado outbreaks were not observed, spatial shifts in tornado activity are observed, primarily as a function of ENSO phase. Historically, the neutral ENSO phase features tornado outbreaks from central Oklahoma and Kansas eastward through the Carolinas. During cold ENSO phases (La Niña), tornado outbreaks typically occur in a zone stretching from southeastern Texas northeastward into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Winter tornado activity was mainly limited to areas near the Gulf Coast, including central Florida, during anomalously warm phases (El Niño). Shifts in the intensity of tornado activity were also found as a function of ENSO and particularly NAO phase. Stronger tornadoes with longer path lengths were observed during La Niña and Neutral ENSO events, as well as Positive and Neutral NAO events.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2009-01-01
Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.
Intra-annual variability of the radiocarbon content of corals from the Galapagos Islands
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Brown, T.A.; Farwell, G.W.; Schmidt, F.H.
1993-01-01
The authors report AMS [sup 14]C measurements on sub annual samples of coral from the Galapagos Islands that span the period, 1970-1973. Both the major 1972 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event and intra-annual changes in regional upwelling of [sup 14]C-depleted waters associated with alternation of surface-ocean current patterns are evident in the record. These data show that the corals preserve a detailed record of past intra-annual variations of the [sup 14]C content of surface ocean water.
Springtime ENSO Flavors and Their Impacts on US Regional Tornado Outbreaks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, S. K.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Enfield, D. B.; Weaver, S. J.; Wang, C.; Atlas, R. M.
2015-12-01
A new method is presented to objectively characterize and explore the differences in the space-time evolution of equatorial Pacific SSTAs observed during El Nino events. An application of this method to the 21 El Nino events during 1949-2013 captured two leading orthogonal modes, which explain more than 60% of the inter-event variance. The first mode distinguishes a strong and persistent El Nino from a weak and early-terminating El Niño. A similar analysis applied to the 22 La Nina events during 1949-2013 also revealed two leading orthogonal modes, with its first mode distinguishing a resurgent La Nina from a transitioning La Nina. This study shows that the four main phases of springtime El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution (persistent versus early-terminating El Nino, and resurgent versus transitioning La Nina) are linked to distinctive spatial patterns of the probability of U.S. regional tornado outbreaks. In particular, the outbreak probability increases significantly up to 27% over the Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest and Southeast when a La Nina persists into the spring and is followed by another La Nina (i.e., resurgent La Nina). The probability also increases significantly up to 38%, but mainly in the South, when a two-year La Nina transitions to an El Nino (i.e., transitioning La Nna). These changes in outbreak probability are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale tropospheric circulation, low-level vertical wind shear, moisture transports and extratropical storm activity.
Impact of climate variability on various Rabi crops over Northwest India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nageswararao, M. M.; Dhekale, B. S.; Mohanty, U. C.
2018-01-01
The Indian agriculture with its two prominent cropping seasons [summer ( Kharif) and winter ( Rabi)] is the mainstay of the rural economy. Northwest India (NWI) is an important region for the cultivation of Rabi crops grown during the period from October to April. In the present study, state wise impact analysis is carried out to ascertain the influence of climate indices Nino3.4 region Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local precipitation, soil moisture, minimum ( T min), maximum ( T max) and mean ( T mean) temperatures on different Rabi crops (wheat, gram, rapeseed-mustard, oilseeds, and total Rabi food grains) over NWI during the years 1966-2011. To study the impact of climate variability on different Rabi crops, firstly, the influence of technology on the productivity of these crops has been removed by using linear function, as linear trend has noticed in all the time series. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of local precipitation, soil moisture, T min, T max and T mean and some of its potential predictors (Nino3.4 region SST, SOI, AO, and NAO) on the productivity of different Rabi crops. Overall impact analysis indicates that the productivity of different Rabi crops in most of the places of NWI is most likely influenced by variability in local temperatures. Moreover, Nino3.4 region SST (SOI) positively (negatively) affects the productivity of gram, rapeseed-mustard, and total Rabi oilseeds in most of the states. The results of this study are useful in determining the strategies for increasing sustainable production through better agronomic practices.
Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.
MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli
2014-09-08
Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.
El Nino-Induced Tropical Ocean/Land Energy Exchange in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.
2017-01-01
Studies have shown the correlation and connection of surface temperatures across the globe, ocean and land, related to Tropical SSTs especially El Nino. This climate variability greatly influences regional weather and hydroclimate extremes (e.g. drought and flood). In this paper, we evaluate the relationship of temperatures across the tropical oceans and continents in MERRA-2, and also in a newly developed MERRA-2 AMIP ensemble simulation (M2AMIP). M2AMIP uses the same model and spatial resolution as MERRA-2, producing the same output diagnostics over 10 ensemble members. Composite El Nino temperature data are compared with observations to evaluate the land/sea contrast, variations and phase relationship. The temperature variations are related to surface heat fluxes and the atmospheric temperatures and transport, to identify the processes that lead to the lagged redistribution of heat in the tropics and beyond. Discernable cloud, radiation and data assimilation changes accompany the onset of El Nino affecting continental regions through the progression to and following the peak values. While the model represents these variations in general, regional strengths and weaknesses can be identified.
Coolness in the tropical Pacific during an El Nino episode
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chou, M.
The response of radiation budgets to changes in water vapor and clouds in an El Nino episode is investigated using the analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite-derived clouds and the earth radiation budgets for the tropical Pacific (30 deg N-30 deg S, 100 deg E-100 deg W). Analyses are performed for April 1985 and April 1987. The former is a non-El Nino year and the latter is an El Nino year. Compared to April 1985, when the SST over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is approximately 2 C lower, the high-level cloudiness in April 1987 increases in themore » central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Corresponding to the increase in cloudiness, the outgoing longwave radiation and the net downward solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere decrease. The patterns of these changes are reversed in the western tropical Pacific and the Northern Hemispheric (NH) subsidence region centered at approximately 20 deg N, indicating an eastward shift of the convection center from the maritime continents to the central equatorial Pacific and a strengthened NH Hadley circulation. The earth-atmosphere system in the region receives less radiative energy by 4 W/sq m in the warmer month of April 1987 than in the month of April 1985, which is primarily caused by a reduced atmospheric clear sky greenhouse effect in the NH tropical Pacific in April 1987. Clouds have strong effects on both the IR and solar radiation, but the net effect on the radiation budget at the top of the atmopshere changes only slightly between April 1985 and April 1987. The results are consistent with Lindzen`s hypothesis that reduced upper-tropospheric water vapor in the vicinity of the enhanced convection region produces cooling that counteracts warming in the Tropics.« less
The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.
2017-09-01
Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?
Shaman, Jeffrey; Lipsitch, Marc
2013-01-01
We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns. PMID:22308322
A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Yang; Morton, Douglas C.; Andela, Niels; van der Werf, Guido R.; Giglio, Louis; Randerson, James T.
2017-12-01
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate1. The response of fires to this forcing2 is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire-emissions responses, drawing on six El Niño and six La Niña events during 1997-2016. On average, reductions in precipitation and terrestrial water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño as compared with La Niña. Fires peaked in equatorial Asia early in the ENSO cycle when El Niño was strengthening (Aug-Oct), before moving to southeast Asia and northern South America (Jan-Apr), Central America (Mar-May) and the southern Amazon (Jul-Oct) during the following year. Large decreases in fire occurred across northern Australia during Sep-Oct of the second year from a reduced fuel availability. Satellite observations of aerosols and carbon monoxide provided independent confirmation of the spatiotemporal evolution of fire anomalies. The predictable cascade of fire across different tropical continents described here highlights an important time delay in the Earth system's response to precipitation redistribution. These observations help to explain why the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Niño3 and may contribute to improved seasonal fire forecasts.
McCabe, Gregory J.; Ault, Toby R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D.
2012-01-01
Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900–2008 are used to examine how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p < 0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Niño and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest–southeast dipole that is significantly (at p < 0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Hui; Liu, Kexiu; Wang, Aimei; Feng, Jianlong; Fan, Wenjing; Liu, Qiulin; Xu, Yao; Zhang, Zengjian
2018-05-01
Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China's coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China's coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China's coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4-7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).
El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, R.
2017-12-01
Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.
Improving seasonal forecast through the state of large-scale climate signals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samale, Chiara; Zimmerman, Brian; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Block, Paul
2017-04-01
Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. In fact, forecasts are usually skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), but predictability tends to decrease on longer lead times. The forecast lead time might be extended by using climate teleconnection, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite the ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations such as Western USA and Australia, there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other river basins, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we propose the use of the Nino Index Phase Analysis for capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e., ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Dipole Mode Index). This climate state information is used for distinguishing the different phases of the climate signals and for identifying relevant teleconnections between the observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that mostly influence the local hydrologic conditions. The framework is applied to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Preliminary results show high correlations between SST and three to six months ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. This forecast represents a valuable information to partially anticipate the summer water availability, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como operations.
The association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation events and typhoons in the Marshall Islands.
Spennemann, D H; Marschner, I C
1995-09-01
An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.
Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ilya Zaliapin
This project focused on conceptual exploration of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and sensitivity using a Delay Differential Equation developed in the project. We have (i) established the existence and continuous dependence of solutions of the model (ii) explored multiple models solutions, and the distribution of solutions extrema, and (iii) established and explored the phase locking phenomenon and the existence of multiple solutions for the same values of model parameters. In addition, we have applied to our model the concept of pullback attractor, which greatly facilitated predictive understanding of the nonlinear model's behavior.
The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.
2011-01-01
Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through
The Rise and Fall of Andean Empires: El Nino History Lessons.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wright, Kenneth R.
2000-01-01
Provides information on El Nino and the methods for investigating ancient climate record. Traces the rise and fall of the Andean empires focusing on the climatic forces that each empire (Tiwanaku, Wari, Moche, and Inca) endured. States that modern societies should learn from the experiences of these ancient civilizations. (CMK)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aralova, Dildora; Toderich, Kristina; Jarihani, Ben; Gafurov, Dilshod; Gismatulina, Liliya
2016-10-01
An investigation of temporal dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and spatial patterns of dryness/wetness period over arid and semi-arid zones of Central Asia and their relationship with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values (1982-2011) have explored in this article. For identifying periodical oscillations and their relationship with NDVI values have selected El Nino 3.4 index and thirty years of new generation bi-weekly NDVI 3g acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellites time-series data. Based on identification ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) is a very strong El Nino (warm) anomalies observed during 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and very strong La Nino (cool) period events have observed 1988-1989 years. For correlation these two factors and seeking positive and negative trends it has extracted from NDVI time series data as "low productivity period" following years: 1982-1983, 1997 -1998; and as "high productivity period" following years: 1988 -1989. Linear regression observed warm events as moderate phase period selected between moderate El Nino (ME) and NDVI with following periods:1986-1987; 1987-1988; 1991-1992; 2002-2003; 2009-2010; and moderate La Niña (ML) periods and NDVI (1998-1999; 1999-2000; 2007-2008) which has investigated a spatial patterns of wetness conditions. The results indicated that an inverse relationship between very strong El Nino and NDVI, decreased vegetation response with larger positive ONI value; and direct relationship between very strong La Niña and NDVI, increased vegetation response with smaller negative ONI value. Results assumed that significant impact of these anomalies influenced on vegetation productivity. These results will be a beneficial for efficient rangeland/grassland management and to propose drought periods for assessment and reducing quantity of flocks' due to a lack of fodder biomass for surviving livestock flocks on upcoming years in rangelands. Also results demonstrate
Weakening of the relationship between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the ENSO in recent decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Choi, Jun-Young; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong
2016-04-01
This study reports, on the 20th century the relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was weaker then late 1990s. We shows that 15-yr moving correlation between the Nino3.4 index during the December to February (DJF) and IOD index during the September to November (SON) season. At this results we divided previous decades (1979 to 1998) and late decades (1999 to 2014). The correlation coefficient was 0.64 in the previous decades and 0.21 in the late decades. Late decades was suddenly weaker then previous decades. Because, there is a big difference between previous decades and late decades in the ENSO regressed precipitation anomaly spatial distribution during the El Nino developing the MAM season. There was existed positive precipitation anomalies over the off-equatorial western Pacific. It was induced the cross-equatorial southerly flow over the eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent. It means cross-equatorial southerly flow was key point to understanding ENSO-IOD coupling system. In addition, using the climate models participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports the observational results.
Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur
2018-01-01
The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1999-01-01
Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of greater than or equal to 50 M s (exp -1)), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated "more" versus "less" activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as "non-El Nino-related" (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is approx. 53%, while it is only approx. 14% when it is classified as "El Nino-related" (ENR). Including the activity levels ("more" versus "less"), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be approx. 71% for the "more-NENR" season, 30% for the "less-NENR" season, 17% for the "more-ENR" season, and 12% for the "less-ENR" season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a "more-NENR" season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4 plus or minus 1 or higher.
[Results of the NASA/University Joint Venture (JOVE) Program at the University of Vermont
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yu, Jun
1996-01-01
Sea ice parameters in the north and south polar regions are important components of the global climate system. Current air-sea-ice models do not take into account oscillatory behavior in the ice covers other than for the seasonal cycle, since the relative importance of such oscillations is not known. An analysis of oscillatory behavior then becomes important from the standpoints of determining the significance of the various oscillatory components and perhaps discovery of some new aspects of the air-sea-ice interaction processes. One of these components, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be associated with weather changes on a global scale. Indeed, its spectral components have also been observed in the sea ice distribution in both hemispheres.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
2018-04-01
The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.
Sea-cliff erosion as a function of beach changes and extreme wave runup during the 1997-1998 El Nino
Sallenger, A.H.; Krabill, W.; Brock, J.; Swift, R.; Manizade, S.; Stockdon, H.
2002-01-01
Over time scales of hundreds to thousands of years, the net longshore sand transport direction along the central California coast has been driven to the south by North Pacific winter swell. In contrast, during the El Nin??o winter of 1997-1998, comparisons of before and after airborne lidar surveys showed sand was transported from south to north and accumulated on the south sides of resistant headlands bordering pocket beaches. This resulted in significant beach erosion at the south ends of pocket beaches and deposition in the north ends. Coincident with the south-to-north redistribution of sand, shoreline morphology became prominently cuspate with longshore wavelengths of 400-700 m. The width and elevation of beaches were least where maximum shoreline erosion occurred, preferentially exposing cliffs to wave attack. The resulting erosional hotspots typically were located in the embayments of giant cusps in the southern end of the pocket beaches. The observed magnitude of sea cliff retreat, which reached 14 m, varied with the number of hours that extreme wave runup exceeded certain thresholds representing the protective capacity of the beach during the El Nin??o winter. A threshold representing the width of the beach performed better than a threshold representing the elevation of the beach. The magnitude of cliff erosion can be scaled using a simple model based on the cross-shore distance that extreme wave runup exceeded the pre-winter cliff position. Cliff erosion appears to be a balance between terrestrial mass wasting processes, which tend to decrease the cliff slope, and wave attack, which removes debris and erodes the cliff base increasing the cliff slope. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.
2015-07-01
We discuss the properties of Saturn planetary period oscillations (PPOs) deduced from analysis of Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR) modulations by Fischer et al. (2014), and from prior analysis of magnetic field oscillations data by Andrews et al. (2012) and Provan et al. (2013), with emphasis on the post-equinox interval from early 2010 to early 2013. Fischer et al. (2014) characterize this interval as showing single phase-locked periods in the northern and southern SKR modulations observed in polarization-separated data, while the magnetic data generally show the presence of separated dual periods, northern remaining shorter than southern. We show that the single SKR period corresponds to the southern magnetic period early in 2010, segues into the northern period in late 2010, and returns to the southern period in mid-2012, approximately in line with changes in the dominant magnetic oscillation. An exception occurs in mid-February to late August 2011 when two periods are again discerned in SKR data, in good agreement with the ongoing dual periods in the magnetic data. Fischer et al. (2014) discuss this change in terms of a large jump in the southern SKR period related to the Great White Spot storm, which the magnetic data show is primarily due instead to a reappearance in the SKR data of the ongoing southern modulation in a transitory interval of resumed southern dominance. In the earlier interval from early April 2010 to mid-February 2011 when Fischer et al. (2014) deduce single phase-locked periods, we show unequivocal evidence in the magnetic data for the presence of separated dual oscillations of approximately equal amplitude. We suggest that the apparent single SKR periods result from a previously reported phenomenon in which modulations associated with one hemisphere appear in polarization-separated data associated with the other. In the following interval, mid-August 2011 to early April 2012, when Fischer et al. (2014) again report phase-locked northern
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.;
2013-01-01
The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.
Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, B.
The characteristics of the onset of the Pacific basin-wide warming have experienced notable changes since the late 1970s. The changes are caused by a concurrent change in the background state on which El Nino evolves. For the most significant warm episodes before the late 1970s (1957, 1965, and 1972), the atmospheric anomalies in the onset phase (November to December of the year preceding the El Nino) were characterized by a giant anomalous cyclone over east Australia whose eastward movement brought anomalous westerlies into the western equatorial Pacific, causing development of the basin-wide warming. Meanwhile, the trades in the southeastern Pacificmore » relaxed back to their weakest stage, resulting in a South American coastal warming, which led the central Pacific warming about three seasons. Conversely, in the warm episodes after the late 1970s (1982, 1986-87, and 1991), the onset phase was characterized by an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea whose intensification established anomalous westerlies in the western equatorial Pacific. Concurrently, the trades were enhanced in the southeastern Pacific, so that the coastal warming off Ecuado occurred after the central Pacific warming. It is found that the atmospheric anomalies occurring in the onset phase are controlled by background SSTs that exhibit a significant secular variation. In the late 1970s, the tropical Pacific between 20{degrees}S and 20{degrees}N experienced an abrupt interdecadal warming, concurrent with a cooling in the extratropical North Pacific and South Pacific and a deepening of the Aleutian Low. The interdecadal change of the background state affected El Nino onset by altering the formation of the onset cyclone and equatorial westerly anomalies and through changing the trades in the southeast Pacific, which determine whether a South American coastal warming leads or follows the warming at the central equatorial Pacific. 49 refs., 13 figs.« less
Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part I. The north Pacific ocean
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Alexander, M.A.
Atmosphere-ocean modeling experiments are used to investigate the formation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean during fall and winter of the El Nino year. Experiments in which the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) surface fields are used to force a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific (no air-sea feedback) are compared to simulations in which the CCM and North Pacific Ocean model are coupled. Anomalies in the atmosphere and the North Pacific Ocean during El Nino are obtained from the difference between simulations with and without prescribed warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.more » In both the forced and coupled experiments, the anomaly pattern resembles a composite of the actual SST anomaly field during El Nino: warm SSTs develop along the coast of North America and cold SSTs form in the central Pacific. In the coupled simulations, air-sea interaction results in a 25% to 50% reduction in the magnitude of the SST and mixed-layer depth anomalies, resulting in more realistic SST fields. Coupling also decreases the SST anomaly variance; as a result, the anomaly centers remain statistically significant even though the magnitude of the anomalies is reduced. Three additional sensitivity studies indicate that air-sea feedback and entrainment act to damp SST anomalies while Ekman pumping has a negligible effect on mixed-layer depth and SST anomalies in midatitudes.« less
Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Katherine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.
2011-01-01
Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peterson, W. T.
2016-02-01
Fortnightly measurements of hydrography and zooplankton species composition have been sustained along the Newport Hydrographic line since 1996. From this 20 year time series we have established that zooplankton abundance and species composition closely tracks the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. During positive (warm) phase of the PDO, a warm water `southern' subtropical coastal community is found whereas during negative (cold) phase a cold water `northern'coastal community dominates. The Blob though was a rule-changer. The Blob began to move slowly ashore at Newport on 14 September 2014 with the seasonal relaxation of upwelling, and within 5 h SST increased 6°C to 19.4°C. On the 25 and 30 September cruises, copepod species richness increased as well, with an anomaly of 2 and 9 species respectively, greater than the 20 year climatology for September. We continued to monitor the plankton throughout the autumn 2014 and winter, spring and summer 2015 and found a total of seventeen copepod species that were either new to Oregon or have occurred only rarely in the past. Many of these species are oceanic with sub-tropical or tropical affinities thus are indicators of tropical waters, suggesting that the Blob water which came ashore in central Oregon had its origins offshore rather than from coastal waters to the south. Some of the copepod species that were new or rarely seen included Subeucalanus crassus, Eucalanus hyalinus, Mecynocera clausi, Calocalanus pavo, Centropages bradyii, and Pleuromamma borealis and P. xiphias. Krill biomass was the lowest in our 20 year time series. The southern California Current neritic krill species Nyctiphanes simplex appears off Oregon during major El Niño events (1983, 1998), but none were seen during The Blob event which again suggests that the origin of the Blob water which appeared off Oregon was from far offshore, not from coastal waters to the south. Note in the figure below that
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hunt, G. J.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.; Bunce, E. J.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.
2015-09-01
We investigate the magnetic perturbations associated with field-aligned currents observed on 34 Cassini passes over the premidnight northern auroral region during 2008. These are found to be significantly modulated not only by the northern planetary-period oscillation (PPO) system, similar to the southern currents by the southern PPO system found previously, but also by the southern PPO system as well, thus providing the first clear evidence of PPO-related interhemispheric current flow. The principal field-aligned currents of the two PPO systems are found to be co-located in northern ionospheric colatitude, together with the currents of the PPO-independent (subcorotation) system, located between the vicinity of the open-closed field boundary and field lines mapping to ~9 Saturn radius (Rs) in the equatorial plane. All three systems are of comparable magnitude, ~3 MA in each PPO half-cycle. Smaller PPO-related field-aligned currents of opposite polarity also flow in the interior region, mapping between ~6 and ~9 Rs in the equatorial plane, carrying a current of ~ ±2 MA per half-cycle, which significantly reduce the oscillation amplitudes in the interior region. Within this interior region the amplitudes of the northern and southern oscillations are found to fall continuously with distance along the field lines from the corresponding hemisphere, thus showing the presence of cross-field currents, with the southern oscillations being dominant in the south, and modestly lower in amplitude than the northern oscillations in the north. As in previous studies, no oscillations related to the opposite hemisphere are found on open field lines in either hemisphere.
Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping
2000-07-01
The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duong, Anh Quan; Quy Bui, Ngoc; Luu, The Anh; Kainz, Wolfgang
2014-05-01
El Nino is one of most common climatic events which are widely spread over the world. In case of Vietnam, the El Nino or ENSO event has various effects on agricultural cultivation over whole country; in the Central Highlands area, the coffee cultivation also has been affected heavily. The coffee is one of most important products of this area. Our study area, the Dak Nong province located in the Central Highlands, the mountainous and highlands in central of Vietnam. The coffee production contributes roughly 40% of total GDP of the province. This province climate is influenced by tropical monsoon and high altitude terrain. The area has two seasons in which dry season from November to end of March and the wet season cover the rest. There is 80-90% of precipitation concentrated in wet season. In El Nino years, the dry season is longer and drier than normal which affects the agricultural cultivation especially coffee. The effects of El Nino phenomenon on coffee cultivation need to clarify in order to help farmers and decision makers making their solutions. The ground/underground water has been decreased by over watering of coffee growers as well as deforestation making water shortage in dry season. The over watering of coffee cultivation wasted more than 80% water resources especially underground water use. In years of 1997-1998, coffee productivity decreased 30%; in years of 2003, the coffee productivity was downed by 25%; both examples show the relation between the combination of ENSO and decreasing of Ground/underground water and the coffee production in Dak Nong province. This is a necessary research to evaluate the effects of the combination. This paper using GIS tools to estimate the effects of El Nino phenomenon combined with ground/underground water and the coffee cultivation in Dak Nong province
Observation of El Nino by the Nimbus-7 SMMR
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hwang, P. H.; Macmillan, D. S.; Fu, C. C.; Kim, S. T.; Han, Daesoo; Gloersen, P.
1986-01-01
The quality of Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) derived SST, water vapor, and windspeed are assessed, and these parameters are used to study the El Nino event of 1982-1983 in the equatorial Pacific region from 120 deg to the South American coast. The features of the anomaly fields for these parameters, and the connections between these fields, are discussed. Anomaly fields are found to be qualitatively consistent with outgoing longwave radiation anomaly fields and wind vector anomaly fields.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Penland, Cecile; Ghil, Michael; Weickmann, Klaus M.
1991-01-01
The spectral resolution and statistical significance of a harmonic analysis obtained by low-order MEM can be improved by subjecting the data to an adaptive filter. This adaptive filter consists of projecting the data onto the leading temporal empirical orthogonal functions obtained from singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The combined SSA-MEM method is applied both to a synthetic time series and a time series of AAM data. The procedure is very effective when the background noise is white and less so when the background noise is red. The latter case obtains in the AAM data. Nevertheless, reliable evidence for intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in AAM is detected. The interannual periods include a quasi-biennial one and an LF one, of 5 years, both related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. In the intraseasonal band, separate oscillations of about 48.5 and 51 days are ascertained.
Kintoki Mbala, F; Longo-Mbenza, B; Mbungu Fuele, S; Zola, N; Motebang, D; Nakin, V; Lueme Lokotola, C; Simbarashe, N; Nge Okwe, A
2016-02-01
The significant impact of seasonality and climate change on stroke-related morbidity and mortality is well established, however, some findings on this issue are conflicting. The objective was to determine the impact of gender, age, season, year of admission, temperature, rainfall and El Nino phenomenon on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes and fatal cases of stroke. The study was carried out at the teaching hospital of Kinshasa, DRC, between January 1998 and December 2004. Rainy and dry seasons, elevated temperatures, indices of rainfalls El Nino years 1998, 2002 and 2004, but La Nina years 1999-2000 and neutral/normal years 2001 and 2003 were defined. Among 470 incident strokes, 34.5% of victims (n=162) died. Traditional seasons (small dry season, small rainy season, great dry season, great rainy season) and temperatures did not significantly (P>0.005) impact on stroke incidence. However, there was a positive association between the decrease in rainfall, El Nino, and incident ischemic strokes, but a significant positive association between the increase in rainfall, La Nina, and incident hemorrhagic strokes. Using logistic regression analysis, age ≥ 60 years (OR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.5; P=0.018) and El Nino years (OR: 2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.3; P=0.009) were identified as the independent predictors of fatal strokes. Early warning systems should be developed to predict the impact of seasons and climate variability on stroke morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Reheis, M.C.
2006-01-01
An ongoing project monitors modern dust accumulation in the arid southwestern United States to (1) determine the rate and composition of dust inputs to soils and (2) relate dust accumulation to weather patterns to help predict the effects of climate change on dust production and accumulation. The 16-year records of 35 dust-trap sites in the eastern Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin reveal how generation and accumulation of dust, including the silt-clay, carbonate, and soluble-salt fractions, is affected by the amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall and the behavior of different source types (alluvium, dry playas, and wet playas). Accumulation rates (fluxes) of the silt-clay fraction of dust, including carbonates, range from about 2-20 g/m2/yr. Average rates are higher in the southern part of the study area (south of latitude 36.5??N) and annually fluctuate over a larger range than rates in the northern part of the area. Sites throughout the study area show peaks in dust flux in the 1984-1985 sampling period and again in 1997-1999; northern sites also show increased flux in 1987-1988 and southern sites in 1989-1991. These peaks of dust flux correspond with both La Nina (dry) conditions and with strong El Nino (wet) periods. The accumulation rates of different components of mineral dusts fluctuate differently. For example, soluble-salt flux increases in 1987-1988, coincident with a moderate El Nino event, and increases very strongly in 1997-1999, overlapping with a strong El Nino event. Both of these high-rainfall winters were preceded and accompanied by strong summer rains. In contrast, little or no change in soluble-salt flux occurred during other periods of high winter rainfall but little summer rain, e.g. 1992-1995. The differences between northern vs. southern sites and between sites with playa dust sources vs. alluvial dust sources indicate that regional differences in the response of precipitation and vegetation growth to ENSO influence and
Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.
2001-01-01
The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.
Pednekar, Abhishek M; Grant, Stanley B; Jeong, Youngsul; Poon, Ying; Oancea, Carmen
2005-12-01
Historical coliform measurements (n = 67,269; 32 years) in Newport Bay, a regionally important saltwater wetland and tidal embayment in southern California, have been compiled and analyzed. Coliform concentrations in Newport Bay decrease along an inland-to-ocean gradient, consistent with the hypothesis that this tidal embayment attenuates fecal pollution from inland sources. Nearly 70% of the variability in the coliform record can be attributed to seasonal and interannual variability in local rainfall, implying that stormwater runoff from the surrounding watershed is a primary source of coliform in Newport Bay. The storm loading rate of coliform from the San Diego Creek watershed--the largest watershed draining into Newport Bay--appears to be unaffected by the dramatic shift away from agricultural land-use that occurred in the watershed over the study period. Further, the peak loading of coliform during storms is larger than can be reasonably attributed to sources of human sewage, suggesting that nonhuman fecal pollution and/or bacterial regrowth contribute to the coliform load. Summer time measurements of coliform exhibit interannual trends, but these trends are site specific, apparently due to within-Bay variability in land-use, inputs of dry-weather runoff, and tidal mixing rates. Overall, these results suggest that efforts to improve water quality in Newport Bay will likely have greater efficacy during dry weather summer periods. Water quality during winter storms, on the other hand, appears to be dominated by factors outside of local management control; namely, virtually unlimited nonhuman sources of coliform in the watershed and global climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, that modulate rainfall and stormwater runoff in southern California.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodwin, Ian D.
2005-11-01
Coastal systems behave on timescales from days to centuries. Shelf and coastal wave climatological data from the Tasman Sea are only available for the past few decades. Hence, the records are too short to investigate inter- and multidecadal variability and their impact on coastal systems. A method is presented to hindcast monthly mid-shelf mean wave direction (MWD) for southeastern Australia, based on the monthly, trans-Tasman mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) difference between northern NSW (Yamba) and the north island of New Zealand (Auckland). The MSLP index is calibrated to instrumental (Waverider buoy) MWD data for the Sydney shelf and coast. Positive/negative trans-Tasman MSLP difference is significantly correlated to southerly/easterly Sydney MWD, and to long/short mean wave periods. The 124-year Sydney annual (MWD) time series displays multidecadal variability, and identifies a significant period of more southerly annual MWD during 1884 to 1914 than in the period since 1915. The Sydney MWD is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation with the SOI is enhanced during periods when the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in its negative state and warm SST anomalies occur in the southwest Pacific region. The Sydney MWD was found to be associated with Pacific basin-wide climate fluctuations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is correlated with low/high MSLP anomalies over New Zealand and the central Pacific Ocean. Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is also correlated with cool/warm SST anomalies in the southwest Pacific, particularly in the eastern Coral Sea and Tasman Sea. Copyright
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Waugh, D. W.; Nielsen, J. E.
2012-01-01
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Khan, Shiraj; Ganguly, Auroop R; Bandyopadhyay, Sharba
Cross-spectrum analysis based on linear correlations in the time domain suggested a coupling between large river flows and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. A nonlinear measure based on mutual information (MI) reveals extrabasinal connections between ENSO and river flows in the tropics and subtropics, that are 20-70% higher than those suggested so far by linear correlations. The enhanced dependence observed for the Nile, Amazon, Congo, Paran{acute a}, and Ganges rivers, which affect large, densely populated regions of the world, has significant impacts on inter-annual river flow predictabilities and, hence, on water resources and agricultural planning.
Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Asner, Gregory P.; Townsend, Alan R.; Braswell, Bobby H.
2000-01-01
Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.
El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg
2013-01-01
Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gagnon, Alexandre S.; Smoyer-Tomic, Karen E.; Bush, Andrew B.
2002-05-01
A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.
Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio
2012-09-01
The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reid, F. M. H.; Lange, C. B.; White, M. M.
1985-01-01
A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typial neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reid, F. M. H.; Lange, C. B.; White, M. M.
1984-01-01
A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typical neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.
El Nino, La Nina and VLBI Measured LOD
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clark, Thomas A.; Gipson, J. M.; Ma, C.
1998-01-01
VLBI is one of the most important techniques for measuring Earth orientation parameters (EOP), and is unique in its ability to make high accuracy measurements of UT1, and its time derivative, which is related to changes in the length of day, conventionally called LOD. These measurements of EOP give constraints on geophysical models of the solid-Earth, atmosphere and oceans. Changes in EOP are due either to external torques from gravitational forces, or to the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth, atmosphere and oceans. The effect of the external torques is strictly harmonic and nature, and is therefore easy to remove. We analyze an LOD time series derived from VLBI measurements with the goal of comparing this to predictions from AAM, and various ENSO indices. Previous work by ourselves and other investigators demonstrated a high degree of coherence between atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and EOP. We continue to see this. As the angular momentum of the atmosphere increases, the rate of rotation of the Earth decreases, and vice versa. The signature of the ENSO is particularly strong. At the peak of the 1982-83 El Nino increased LOD by almost 1 ms. This was subsequently followed by a reduction in LOD of 0.75 ms. At its peak, in February of 1998, the 1997-98 El Nino increased LOD by 0.8 msec. As predicted at the 1998 Spring AGU, this has been followed by an abrupt decrease in LOD which is currently -0.4 ms. At this time (August, 1998) the current ENSO continues to develop in new and unexpected ways. We plan to update our analysis with all data available prior to the Fall AGU.
Effect of the 1982-1983 El Nino on bivalve mollusks. [Chione subrugosa; Trachycardium procerum
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rollins, H.B.
1986-01-01
Mollusks from the peruvian coast were studied in 1984 for shell patterns indicative of stress caused by the 1982-1983 El Nino. Analysis of growth increments showed physiological stress, and there was evidence (from interviews with fishermen) of sever mortality for some species.
Implications of Deoxygenation and Acidification for Deep Sea Urchins in Southern California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sato, Kirk Nicholas Suda
Implications of multiple climate drivers for sea urchins were investigated across a spectrum of biological organization ranging from the urchin guild scale, to individual life history traits, to the geochemistry, material properties and porosity of sea urchin calcium carbonate skeletal tests. Using pink fragile sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus fragilis) on the southern California upwelling margin as a model species, links between biological traits and environmental parameters in nature across multiple spatial and temporal scales revealed correlations with dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and temperature. Temporal trends in sea urchin populations assessed from trawl surveys conducted in southern California over the last 20 years (1994-2013) revealed changes in deep-sea urchin densities and depth distributions that coincide with trends in DO and pH on multidecadal and interdecadal (El Nino Southern Oscillation) time scales. The shallower urchin species ( Lytechinus pictus) decreased in density in the upper 200 m by 80%, and the deeper S. fragilis increased in density by ˜300%, providing the first evidence of habitat compression and expansion in sea urchin populations associated with secular and interdecadal variability in DO and pH. In this context, marketable food quality properties of the roe were compared between S. fragilis and the currently fished California red urchin, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, to assess the feasibility of developing a climate change-tolerant future S. fragilis trap fishery. Although roe color, texture, and resilience were similar between the two species, smaller and softer S. fragilis roe suggest it may only supplement, but not replace M. franciscanus in future fisheries. In comparisons across natural margin depth and climate gradients from 100-1100 m, S. fragilis exhibited reduced gonad production, smaller, weaker and more porous calcified tests in the Oxygen Minimum Zone (DO < 22 mumol kg-1) and pH Minimum Zone (in situ pHTotal <7.57) than those
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, Seung-Bum; Lee, Tong; Fukumori, Ichiro
2007-01-01
The present study examines processes governing the interannual variation of MLT in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Processes controlling the interannual variation of mixed layer temperature (MLT) averaged over the Nino-3 domain (5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg-90 deg W) are studied using an ocean data assimilation product that covers the period of 1993-2003. The overall balance is such that surface heat flux opposes the MLT change but horizontal advection and subsurface processes assist the change. Advective tendencies are estimated here as the temperature fluxes through the domain's boundaries, with the boundary temperature referenced to the domain-averaged temperature to remove the dependence on temperature scale. This allows the authors to characterize external advective processes that warm or cool the water within the domain as a whole. The zonal advective tendency is caused primarily by large-scale advection of warm-pool water through the western boundary of the domain. The meridional advective tendency is contributed to mostly by Ekman current advecting large-scale temperature anomalies through the southern boundary of the domain. Unlike many previous studies, the subsurface processes that consist of vertical mixing and entrainment are explicitly evaluated. In particular, a rigorous method to estimate entrainment allows an exact budget closure. The vertical mixing across the mixed layer (ML) base has a contribution in phase with the MLT change. The entrainment tendency due to the temporal change in ML depth is negligible compared to other subsurface processes. The entrainment tendency by vertical advection across the ML base is dominated by large-scale changes in upwelling and the temperature of upwelling water. Tropical instability waves (TIWs) result in smaller-scale vertical advection that warms the domain during La Nina cooling events. However, such a warming tendency is overwhelmed by the cooling tendency associated with the large-scale upwelling by a factor of
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2013-08-14
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hams, J. E.
2015-12-01
This session will present educational activities developed for an introductory Oceanography lecture and laboratory class by NOAA Teacher-at-Sea Jacquelyn Hams following participation in Leg 3 of Project DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation) in November-December 2011. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important tropical weather phenomenon with origins in the Indian Ocean that impacts many other global climate patterns such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Hemisphere monsoons, tropical storm development, and pineapple express events. The educational activities presented include a series of lessons based on the observational data collected during Project DYNAMO which include atmospheric conditions, wind speeds and direction, surface energy flux, and upper ocean turbulence and mixing. The lessons can be incorporated into any introductory Oceanography class discussion on ocean properties such as conductivity, temperature, and density, ocean circulation, and layers of the atmosphere. A variety of hands-on lessons will be presented ranging from short activities used to complement a lecture to complete laboratory exercises.
Interannual variability and predictability over the Arabian Penuinsula Winter monsoon region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adnan Abid, Muhammad; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Kang, In-Sik
2016-04-01
Interannual winter rainfall variability and its predictability are analysed over the Arabian Peninsula region by using observed and hindcast datasets from the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System 4 for the period 1981-2010. An Arabian winter monsoon index (AWMI) is defined to highlight the Arabian Peninsula as the most representative region for the Northern Hemispheric winter dominating the summer rainfall. The observations show that the rainfall variability is relatively large over the northeast of the Arabian Peninsula. The correlation coefficient between the Nino3.4 index and rainfall in this region is 0.33, suggesting potentially some modest predictability, and indicating that El Nino increases and La Nina decreases the rainfall. Regression analysis shows that upper-level cyclonic circulation anomalies that are forced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for the winter rainfall anomalies over the Arabian region. The stronger (weaker) mean transient-eddy activity related to the upper-level trough induced by the warm (cold) sea-surface temperatures during El Nino (La Nina) tends to increase (decrease) the rainfall in the region. The model hindcast dataset reproduces the ENSO-rainfall connection. The seasonal mean predictability of the northeast Arabian rainfall index is 0.35. It is shown that the noise variance is larger than the signal over the Arabian Peninsula region, which tends to limit the prediction skill. The potential predictability is generally increased in ENSO years and is, in particular, larger during La Nina compared to El Nino years in the region. Furthermore, central Pacific ENSO events and ENSO events with weak signals in the Indian Ocean tend to increase predictability over the Arabian region.
Impact of Lateral Mixing in the Ocean on El Nino in Fully Coupled Climate Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gnanadesikan, A.; Russell, A.; Pradal, M. A. S.; Abernathey, R. P.
2016-02-01
Given the large number of processes that can affect El Nino, it is difficult to understand why different climate models simulate El Nino differently. This paper focusses on the role of lateral mixing by mesoscale eddies. There is significant disagreement about the value of the mixing coefficient ARedi which parameterizes the lateral mixing of tracers. Coupled climate models usually prescribe small values of this coefficient, ranging between a few hundred and a few thousand m2/s. Observations, however, suggest values that are much larger. We present a sensitivity study with a suite of Earth System Models that examines the impact of varying ARedi on the amplitude of El Nino. We examine the effect of varying a spatially constant ARedi over a range of values similar to that seen in the IPCC AR5 models, as well as looking at two spatially varying distributions based on altimetric velocity estimates. While the expectation that higher values of ARedi should damp anomalies is borne out in the model, it is more than compensated by a weaker damping due to vertical mixing and a stronger response of atmospheric winds to SST anomalies. Under higher mixing, a weaker zonal SST gradient causes the center of convection over the Warm pool to shift eastward and to become more sensitive to changes in cold tongue SSTs . Changes in the SST gradient also explain interdecadal ENSO variability within individual model runs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thatje, Sven; Heilmayer, Olaf; Laudien, Jürgen
2008-03-01
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences marine ecosystems and the sustained exploitation of marine resources in the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current upwelling system. Both its warm (El Niño: EN) and cold (La Niña: LN) phase have drastic implications for the ecology, socio-economy and infrastructure along most of Pacific South America. Local artisanal fisheries, which especially suffer from the effects of EN, represent a major part for the domestic economy of Chile and Peru and in consequence a huge amount of published and unpublished studies exists aiming at identifying effects of EN and LN. However, most processes and underlying mechanisms fostering the ecology of organisms along Pacific South America have not been analyzed yet and for the marine realm most knowledge is traditionally based on rather descriptive approaches. We herein advocate that small-scale comparative and interdisciplinary process studies work as one possible solution to understand better the variability observed in EN/LN effects at local scale. We propose that differences in small-scale impacts of ENSO along the coast rather than the macro-ecological and oceanographic view are essential for the sustainable management of costal ecosystems and the livelihood of the people depending on it. Based on this, we summarize the conceptual approach from the EU-funded International Science and Technology Cooperation (INCO) project “Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: Implications for Natural Coastal Resources and Management (CENSOR)” that aims at enhancing the detection, compilation, and understanding of EN and LN effects on the coastal zone and its natural resources. We promote a multidisciplinary avenue within present international funding schemes, with the intention to bridge the traditional gap between basic and applied coastal research. The long-term aim is an increased mitigation of harm caused by EN as well as a better use of beneficial effects
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wootton, J.T.; Pfister, C.A.; Paine, R.T.
We experimentally manipulated nutrient input to a rocky intertidal community, using nutrient-diffusing flowerpots, to determine (i) whether nutrients limited intertidal productivity, (ii) how a large-scale oceanographic disturbance (an El Nino event) affected patterns of nutrient limitation, (iii) the relative impacts of molluscan grazers and nutrient limitation, and (iv) if responses to experimental nutrient addition among trophic levels were more consistent with prey-dependent or ratio-dependent food chain models. Nutrients measurably increased the abundance of micrograzers (amphipods and chironomid larvae), but not algal biomass, during the summer of an El Nino years and during the autumn of an El Nino year. Addingmore » nutrients did not affect food chain stability as assessed by temporal variation in algal biomass and micrograzer abundance. Large molluscan grazers caused large reductions in micrograzers and smaller reductions in algae, indicating consistent consumer effects. The results demonstrate that in this intertidal community, nutrient limitation can occur under conditions of nutrient stress, that top-down grazing effects are typically stronger than bottom-up nutrient effects, and that prey-dependent models are more appropriate than ratio-dependent models. 40 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Powell, Thomas; Kueppers, Lara; Paton, Steve
This dataset is a derivative product of raw meteorological data collected at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (see acknowledgements below). This dataset contains the following: 1) a seven-year record (2008-2014) of meteorological observations from BCI that is in a comma delimited text format, 2) an R-script that converts the observed meteorology into an hdf5 format that can be read by the ED2 model, 3) two decades of meteorological drivers in hdf5 format that are based on the 7-year record of observations and include a synthetic 2-yr El Nino drought, 4) a ReadMe.txt file that explains how the data in the hdf5more » meteorological drivers correspond to the observations. The raw meteorological data were further QC'd as part of the NGEE-Tropics project to derive item 1 above. The R-script makes the appropriate unit conversions for all observed meteorological variables to be compatible with the ED2 model. The R-script also converts RH into specific humidity, splits total shortwave radiation into its 4-stream parts, and calculates longwave radiation from air temperature and RH. The synthetic El Nino drought is based on selected months from the observed meteorology where in each, precipitation (only) of the selected months was modified to reflect the precipitation patterns of the 1982/83 El Nino observed at BCI.« less
Angular momentum and torques in a simulation of the atmosphere's response to the 1982-83 El Nino
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ponte, R.M.; Rosen, R.D.; Boer, G.J.
Anomalies in the angular momentum of the atmosphere (M) during the 1982-83 El Nino event and the torques responsible for these anomalies are investigated using output from the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. Model values of M during the year of the event are generally larger than those for the model climatology, thereby capturing the observed tendency toward higher values of M during El Nino. Differences exist between the model and observations in the timing and amplitude of the largest anomalies, but these differences may be due to natural variability and not necessarily directly associated with the 1982-83 Elmore » Nino conditions. In late September and October 1982, the model atmosphere acquires momentum more rapidly than usual, leading to the development of the largest deviations from mean conditions at the end of October. A secondary maximum in the departure from mean M values occurs in January 1983 and is related to a general strengthening of westerly momentum anomalies over the model's tropical and midlatitude regions. Both mountain and tangential stress torques are involved in this episode, but no particular mechanism or region dominates the anomalous exchange of momentum. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.« less
Regional fuel load modeled for two contrasting years in central and southern Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hely, C.; Dowty, P. R.; Alleaume, S.; Caylor, K. K.; Shugart, H. H.
2001-12-01
Fuel load has been modeled for southern hemisphere Africa for the 1991-92 and 1999-2000 growing seasons. The 1991-92 year was generally dry due to a strong El Nino event in contrast to the particularly wet year of 1999-2000. The method integrates site-level process modeling with 15 day AVHRR NDVI data. The site model was used to simulate landscape light-use efficiency (LUE) at a series of sites in the Kalahari region ranging from evergreen woodland to arid shrubland. This site-level LUE is extrapolated over the southern African region with gridded tree cover data and gridded rainfall. The predicted net primary production (NPP) is allocated into the different fuel types (grass, litter, twigs) using empirical based relationships. The model results are compared with field measurements of fuel load at a number of sites. The results will be used for modeling of biomass burning emissions.
Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean W. D.; Galelli, Stefano
2017-03-01
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the global climate system, affecting hydrology in many of the world’s river basins. This raises the prospect of ENSO-driven variability in global and regional hydroelectric power generation. Here we study these effects by generating time series of power production for 1593 hydropower dams, which collectively represent more than half of the world’s existing installed hydropower capacity. The time series are generated by forcing a detailed dam model with monthly-resolution, 20th century inflows—the model includes plant specifications, storage dynamics and realistic operating schemes, and runs irrespectively of the dam construction year. More than one third of simulated dams exhibit statistically significant annual energy production anomalies in at least one of the two ENSO phases of El Niño and La Niña. For most dams, the variability of relative anomalies in power production tends to be less than that of the forcing inflows—a consequence of dam design specifications, namely maximum turbine release rate and reservoir storage, which allows inflows to accumulate for power generation in subsequent dry years. Production is affected most prominently in Northwest United States, South America, Central America, the Iberian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and Southeast Australia. When aggregated globally, positive and negative energy production anomalies effectively cancel each other out, resulting in a weak and statistically insignificant net global anomaly for both ENSO phases.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Satellite Shows Pacific Running Hot and Cold, September 12, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea-surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on September 12, 1998; these sea surface heights are an indicator of the changing amount of heat stored in the ocean. The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to exhibit the complicated characteristics of both a lingering El Nino, and a possibly waning La Nina situation. This image shows that the rapid cooling of the central tropical Pacific has slowed and this area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased slightly since last month. It is still uncertain, scientists say, that this cold pool will evolve into a long-lasting La Nina situation. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown here in red and white, are still lingering to the north and south of the equator. The coexistence of these two contrasting conditions indicates that the ocean and the climate system remain in transition. These strong patterns have remained in the climate system for many months and will continue to influence weather conditions around the world in the coming fall and winter. The satellite's sea-surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of the 1997-98 El Nino because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea-surface height with unprecedented precision. The purple areas are about 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal, creating a deficit in the heat supply to the surface waters. The white areas show the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The purple areas are 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal and the blue areas are 5 to 13 centimeters (2 to 5 inches) below normal. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhan, Chesheng; Zhang, Yongyong; Hu, Sheng
2018-04-01
In this study, the temporal variations of the standard precipitation index (SPI) were analyzed at different scales in Northwest China (NWC). Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test in this study. This study also investigated the relationships between original precipitation and different periodic components of SPI series with datasets spanning 55 years (1960-2014). The results showed that with the exception of the annual and summer SPI in the Inner Mongolia Inland Rivers Basin (IMIRB), spring SPI in the Qinghai Lake Rivers Basin (QLRB), and spring SPI in the Central Asia Rivers Basin (CARB), it had an increasing trend in other regions for other time series. In the spring, summer, and autumn series, though the MK trends test in most areas was at the insignificant level, they showed an increasing trend in precipitation. Meanwhile, the SPI series in most subbasins of NWC displayed a turning point in 1980-1990, with the significant increasing levels after 2000. Additionally, there was a significant difference between the trend of the original SPI series and the largest approximations. The annual and seasonal SPI series were composed of the short periodicities, which were less than a decade. The MK value would increase by adding the multiple D components (and approximations), and the MK value of the combined series was in harmony with that of the original series. Additionally, the major trend of the annual SPI in NWC was based on the four kinds of climate indices (e.g., Atlantic Oscillation [AO], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and El Nino-Southern Oscillation index [ENSO/NINO]), especially the ENSO.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chavez, F. P.; Strutton, P. G.; McPhaden, M. J.
1996-01-01
Using physical and bio-optical data from moorings in the central equatorial Pacific, the perturbations to phytoplankton biomass and productivity associated with the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino event were investigated. The data presented depict the physical progression of El Nino onset, from reversal of the trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific, through eastward propagation of equatorially trapped Kelvin waves and advection of waters from the nutrient-poor western equatorial warm pool. The physical perturbations led to fluctuations in phytoplankton biomass, quantum yield of fluorescence and a 50% reduction in primary productivity.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hackert, E.; Kovach, R.; Marshak, J.; Borovikov, A.; Molod, A.; Vernieres, G.
2018-01-01
We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission), allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. Four distinct experiments are presented that include 1) freely evolving model SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS), relaxation to 2) climatological SSS (i.e. WOA13 SSS), 3) Aquarius, and 4) SMAP initialization. Coupled hindcasts are then generated from these initial conditions for March 2015. These forecasts are then validated against observations and evaluated with respect to the observed El Nino development.
Wave spectral energy variability in the northeast Pacific
Bromirski, P.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Flick, R.E.
2005-01-01
The dominant characteristics of wave energy variability in the eastern North Pacific are described from NOAA National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy data collected from 1981 to 2003. Ten buoys at distributed locations were selected for comparison based on record duration and data continuity. Long-period (LP) [T > 12] s, intermediate-period [6 ??? T ??? 12] s, and short-period [T < 6] s wave spectral energy components are considered separately. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of monthly wave energy anomalies reveal that all three wave energy components exhibit similar patterns of spatial variability. The dominant mode represents coherent heightened (or diminished) wave energy along the West Coast from Alaska to southern California, as indicated by composites of the 700 hPa height field. The second EOF mode reveals a distinct El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated spatial distribution of wave energy, which occurs when the North Pacific storm track is extended unusually far south or has receded to the north. Monthly means and principal components (PCs) of wave energy levels indicate that the 1997-1998 El Nin??o winter had the highest basin-wide wave energy within this record, substantially higher than the 1982-1983 El Nin??o. An increasing trend in the dominant PC of LP wave energy suggests that storminess has increased in the northeast Pacific since 1980. This trend is emphasized at central eastern North Pacific locations. Patterns of storminess variability are consistent with increasing activity in the central North Pacific as well as the tendency for more extreme waves in the south during El Nin??o episodes and in the north during La Nin??a. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
Equatorial oceanography. [review of research
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.
1983-01-01
United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thompson, Anne M.; Allen, Amber L.; Lee, Sukyoung; Miller, Sonya K.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.
2011-01-01
Prior investigations attempted to determine the relative influence of advection and convective processes on ozone and water vapor distributions in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through analyses of tracers, related physical parameters (e.g., outgoing long-wave radiation, precipitable water, and temperature), or with models. In this study, stable laminae in Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde Network (SHADOZ) ozone profIles from 1998 to 2007 are interpreted in terms of gravity waves (GW) or Rossby waves (RW) that are identified with vertical and quasi-horizontal displacements, respectively. Using the method of Pierce and Grant (1998) as applied by Thompson et al. (2007a, 2007b, 2010, 2011), amplitudes and frequencies in ozone laminae are compared among representative SHADOZ sites over Africa and the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. GW signals maximize in the TTL and lower stratosphere. Depending on site and season, GW are identified in up to 90% of the soundings. GW are most prevalent over the Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, a distribution consistent with vertically propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. Ozone laminae from RW occur more often below the tropical tropopause and with lower frequency 20%). Gravity wave and Rossby wave indices (GWI, RWI) are formulated to facilitate analysis of interannual variability of wave signatures among sites. GWI is positively correlated with a standard ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) index over American Samoa (14degS, 171degW) and negatively correlated at Watukosek, Java (7.5degS, 114degE), Kuala Lumpur (3degN, 102degE), and Ascension Island (80degS, 15degW). Generally, the responses of GW and RW to ENSO are consistent with prior studies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Provan, G.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Bunce, E. J.; Hunt, G. J.; Dougherty, M. K.
2017-12-01
We investigate planetary period oscillations (PPOs) in Saturn's magnetosphere using Cassini magnetic field data during the high cadence ( 7 days) F-ring and proximal orbits. Previous results have shown that there are two PPO systems, one in each hemisphere. Both PPO periods show seasonal dependence, and since mid-2014 the Northern PPO period has been 10.8 h and the Southern PPO period 10.7 h. The beat period of the two oscillations is 45 days. Previous results demonstrated that in the Northern (Southern) polar region only pure Northern (Southern) oscillations can be observed, whilst in the equatorial region both oscillations are present and constructively and destructively interfere over the beat-cycle of the two oscillations. The PPOs are believed to be driven by twin-cell convection patterns in the polar ionosphere/thermosphere regions, with two systems of field-aligned currents transmitting the PPO flows to the magnetospheric plasma.The F-ring and proximal orbits uniquely observe the PPOs over 6 orbits during each PPO beat cycle. This high-cadence data demonstrates that over a beat cycle both the periods and amplitudes of the PPO observed within the each polar region are modulated by the PPO system from the opposite hemisphere. When the two oscillations are in phase (anti-phase) the `drag' of one system on the other acts to decrease (increase) the amplitude of the oscillations and the two PPO periods diverge (converge). We present a theoretical model showing that this coupling is due to the PPO flows from one hemisphere not just being communicated to the magnetosphere as previously assumed, but also to the opposite hemisphere. The result is inter-hemispheric coupling of the PPO flow systems within the ionosphere/thermosphere system, so that the northern PPO system drives a northern twin-cell convection pattern in the southern hemisphere, and vice versa, thus leading to the observed polar modulations of the PPOs.We will also present PPO phase models determined
The QBO, Gravity Waves Forced by Tropical Convection, and ENSO.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Geller, Marvin A.; Zhou, Tiehan; Yuan, Wei
2016-01-01
By means of theory, a simplified cartoon illustrating wave forcing of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and general circulation modeling of the QBO, it is argued that the period of the QBO is mainly controlled by the magnitude of the gravity wave (GW) vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum (GWMF) forcing the QBO, while the QBO amplitude is mainly determined by the phase speeds of the GWs that make up this momentum flux. It is furthermore argued that it is the zonally averaged GWMF that principally determines the QBO period irrespective of the longitudinal distribution of this GW momentum flux. These concepts are used to develop a hypothesis for the cause of a previously reported El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of QBO periods and amplitudes. Some observational evidence is reported for the ENSO modulation of QBO amplitudes to have been different before the 1980s than after about 1990. A hypothesis is also given to explain this in terms of the different ENSO modulation of tropical deep convection that took place before the 1980s from that which occurred after about 1990. The observational evidence, while consistent with our hypotheses, does not prove that our hypotheses are correct given the small number of El Ninos and La Ninas that occurred in the early and later periods. Further research is needed to support or refute our hypotheses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.
2004-01-01
"Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.
2017-12-01
This study analyzes the discharge variability of small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) in the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) was applied to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends, based on four time series of monthly-normalized discharge anomaly between 1940 and 2015. Statistically significant trends reveal increasing discharge during the past decades and document an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be best described by five quasi-periodic statistically significant oscillatory modes, with mean periods varying from 1 to ∼20 y. Moreover, we show that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (∼20 y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (∼2-5 y). Previous studies highlighted a rapid increase in discharge in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. Our results suggest that the rapid discharge increase in the NW Argentine Andes coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge, which is mainly linked to a negative to positive transition of the PDO phase and TSA variability associated with a long-term increasing trend. We therefore suggest that variations in discharge in this region are largely driven by both natural variability and the effects of global climate change. We furthermore posit that the links between atmospheric and hydrologic processes result from a combination of forcings that operate on different spatiotemporal scales.
Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
Shelby A. Mason; Peter E. Hamlington; Benjamin D. Hamlington; W. Matt Jolly; Chad M. Hoffman
2017-01-01
The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El NiñoâSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early...
Effects of El Niño on summertime ozone air quality in the eastern United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.
2017-12-01
We investigate the effect of El Nino on maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) surface ozone over the eastern United States in summer (June-August, JJA) from 1980 to 2016. El Nino can influence the extra-tropical climate through the propagation of stationary waves, leading to (1) a low-pressure anomaly in the western Atlantic, which reduces transport of moist, clean air from the ocean into the mid- and southern Atlantic states, and (2) intensified southerly flow in the South Central states, which conversely enhances flux of moist, clean air into this region. El Nino can also trigger greater subsidence, reduced precipitation, and increased surface solar radiation in the mid- and southern Atlantic States. As a result, every standard deviation increase in the Nino 1+2 index is associated with an increase of 1-2 ppbv ozone in the Atlantic States and a decrease of 0.5-2 ppbv ozone in the South Central states. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project have difficulties capturing the El Nino influence on summertime weather in the eastern United States, implying that the freely running chemistry-climate models also cannot simulate the ozone variability related to El Nino.
The weakening of the ENSO-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coupling strength in recent decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ham, Yoo-Geun; Choi, Jun-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong
2017-07-01
This study examines a recent weakening of the coupling between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode after the 2000s and 2010s compared to the previous two decades (1980s and 1990s). The correlation between the IOD during the September-November season and the Nino3.4 index during the December-February season is 0.21 for 1999-2014, while for the previous two decades (1979-1998) it is 0.64. It is found that this weakening of the ENSO-IOD coupling during the 2000s and 2010s is associated with different spatial patterns in ENSO evolution during the boreal spring and summer seasons. During the boreal spring season of the El Nino developing phase, positive precipitation anomalies over the northern off-equatorial western Pacific is systematically weakened during the 2000s and 2010s. This also weakens the low-level cross-equatorial southerly flow, which can cause local negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent through increased evaporation and cold and dry moist energy advection. The weakened negative precipitation anomalies over the maritime continent reduces the amplitude of the equatorial easterly over the IO, therefore, suppresses a ENSO-related IOD variability. An analysis using climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) supports this observational findings that the amplitude of the cross-equatorial southerly flow and associated suppressed convective activities over the maritime continent during the El Nino developing season are critical for determining the ENSO-IOD coupling strength in climate models.
Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, Luyu; Xu, Jianming; Tie, Xuexi; Wu, Jianbin
2016-09-01
During the winter of 2015, there was a strong El Nino (ENSO) event, resulting in significant anomalies for meteorological conditions in China. Analysis shows that the meteorological conditions in December 2015 (compared to December 2014) had several important anomalies, including the following: (1) the surface southeasterly winds were significantly enhanced in the North China Plain (NCP); (2) the precipitation was increased in the south of eastern China; and (3) the wind speeds were decreased in the middle-north of eastern China, while slightly increased in the south of eastern China. These meteorological anomalies produced important impacts on the aerosol pollution in eastern China. In the NCP region, the PM2.5 concentrations were significantly increased, with a maximum increase of 80-100 μg m-3. A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) was applied to study the individual contribution of the changes in winds and precipitation to PM2.5 concentrations. This study suggests that the 2015El Nino event had significant effects on air pollution in eastern China, especially in the NCP region, including the capital city of Beijing, in which aerosol pollution was significantly enhanced in the already heavily polluted capital city of China.
A multiscale interaction model for the origin of the tropospheric QBO
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Goswami, B.N.
1995-03-01
A conceptual model for the origin of the tropospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is presented. It is argued that the tropospheric QBO may not be a fundamental mode of oscillation of the tropical coupled system. It is proposed that it may arise due to multiscale interactions between high-frequency synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations of the atmosphere and a low-frequency oscillation of the couple system in the presence of the annual cycle. This is demonstrated using a conceptual low-order system consisting of three variables representing the nonlinear atmospheric oscillations and a linear oscillator representing the low-frequency coupled mode. The annual cycle and couplingmore » to the low-frequency linear oscillator provide slowly varying forcings for the atmospheric high-frequency oscillations. The atmospheric oscillations go through a chaotic regime during a certain part of the slowly varying forcing. Such variable forcing introduces a low-frequency tail in the spectrum of the atmospheric high-frequency oscillations. The low-frequency tail resonantly interacts with the low-frequency oscillation and produces the QBO in addition to broadening the spectrum of the low-frequency oscillator. The conceptual model simulates features similar to many observed features of the tropospheric QBO but depends on the assumption that there is an inherent low-frequency El Nino-Southern Oscillation oscillation with a four-year period that occurs independently of the high-frequency forcing or the QBO.« less
ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R
Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less
Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.
2016-04-01
Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.
Fisman, David N; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Brown, Kevin A
2016-12-20
Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970-2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soniat, Thomas M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.
2009-02-01
The eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time-frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico
ENSO-Related Variability in Wave Climate Drives Greater Erosion Potential on Central Pacific Atolls
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bramante, J. F.; Ashton, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.
2015-12-01
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific over a periodic time scale of 2-7 years. Despite the importance of this climate mode in forcing storm generation and trade wind variability, its impact on the wave climate incident on central Pacific atolls has not been addressed. We used the NOAA Wavewatch III CFSR reanalysis hindcasts (1979-2007) to examine the influence of ENSO on sediment mobility and transport at Kwajalein Atoll (8.8°N, 167.7°E). We found that during El Nino event years, easterly trade winds incident on the atoll weakened by 4% compared to normal years and 17% relative to La Nina event years. Despite this decrease in wind strength, significant wave heights incident on the atoll were 3-4% greater during El Nino event years. Using machine learning to partition these waves revealed that the greater El Nino wave heights originated mainly from greater storm winds near the atoll. The southeastern shift in tropical cyclone genesis location during El Nino years forced these storm winds and contributed to the 7% and 16% increases in annual wave energy relative to normal and La Nina years, respectively. Using nested SWAN and XBeach models we determined that the additional wave energy during El Nino event years significantly increased potential sediment mobility at Kwajalein Atoll and led to greater net offshore transport on its most populous island. The larger storm waves likely deplete ocean-facing beaches and reef flats of sediment, but increase the supply of sediment to the atoll lagoon across open reef platforms that are not supporting islands. We discuss further explicit modelling of storms passing over the atoll to elucidate the confounding role of storm surge on the net erosional/depositional effects of these waves. Extrapolating our results to recent Wavewatch III forecasts leads us to conclude that climate change-linked increases in wave height and storm wave energy will increase erosion on
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1997-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic andOn the teleconnection patterns to precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhong, Yu; Wang, Binbin; Zou, Chris B.; Hu, Bill X.; Liu, Youcun; Hao, Yonghong
2017-11-01
The Tianshan Mountains are known as the "water tower" in the arid region of Central Asia. Change in precipitation amount and pattern can have a profound impact on regional civilization and life supporting ecosystems. For this study, a systematic analysis of long-term precipitation data for the eastern Tianshan Mountains was conducted to investigate the influence of climate teleconnections on annual and intra-annual precipitation using data collected between 1951 and 2014 from 39 meteorological stations. Annual precipitation has increased during the past six decades at an average rate of 6.7 mm/10 years largely due to the increase in precipitation during the intra-annual wet period (May-October). The annual precipitation and its rate of increase were higher in the northwestern region. Annual precipitation was found to be most strongly correlated with index of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and partially correlated with indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ISM was positively correlated with the precipitation in almost the entire region during the intra-annual wet period, while it showed positive correlations in the northern slope and the alpine region, and negative correlations in the southern slope during the intra-annual dry period (November to April). PDO had much weaker influence both in spatial scale and strength and primarily affected low elevations on the southern slopes of the middle and western regions. The impacts of PNA and AO on precipitation were weak and localized. ENSO and NAO indices were almost not correlated with annual precipitation observation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains.
A Remote Sensing Class Exercise To Study the Effects of "El Nino" in South America.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Moxey, Lucas Eduardo
2002-01-01
Describes an undergraduate physical science laboratory course exercising the utilization of satellite imagery for studying the floods that resulted in the Parana River region in South America during El Nino (1997-1998), and examines vegetation cover and spectral profiles from the study area in order to further understand and assess the changes…
Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mayewski, P. A.; Carleton, A. M.; Birkel, S. D.; Dixon, D.; Kurbatov, A. V.; Korotkikh, E.; McConnell, J.; Curran, M.; Cole-Dai, J.; Jiang, S.; Plummer, C.; Vance, T.; Maasch, K. A.; Sneed, S. B.; Handley, M.
2017-01-01
A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.
Climate-disease connections: Rift Valley Fever in Kenya
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Anyamba, A.; Linthicum, K. J.; Tucker, C. J.
2001-01-01
All known Rift Valley fever(RVF) outbreaks in Kenya from 1950 to 1998 followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. On an interannual scale, periods of above normal rainfall in East Africa are associated with the warm phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Anomalous rainfall floods mosquito-breeding habitats called dambos, which contain transovarially infected mosquito eggs. The eggs hatch Aedes mosquitoes that transmit the RVF virus preferentially to livestock and to humans as well. Analysis of historical data on RVF outbreaks and indicators of ENSO (including Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index) indicates that more than three quarters of the RVF outbreaks have occurred during warm ENSO event periods. Mapping of ecological conditions using satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data show that areas where outbreaks have occurred during the satellite recording period (1981-1998) show anomalous positive departures in vegetation greenness, an indicator of above-normal precipitation. This is particularly observed in arid areas of East Africa, which are predominantly impacted by this disease. These results indicate a close association between interannual climate variability and RVF outbreaks in Kenya.
Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano
2016-04-01
Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.
El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California
Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.
2012-01-01
Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schubert; Drought Working Group, S.
2008-12-01
The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schubert, Siegfried
2008-01-01
The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.
Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.; Berg, Jared S.; Ashton, J.B.
2002-01-01
Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).
Relationship between Ocean Bottom Pressure Variations and Baroclinic Eddy off Kushiro-Tokachi
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hasegawa, T.; Nagano, A.; Matsumoto, H.; Ariyoshi, K.
2016-02-01
The scope of this study is to reveal relationships between ocean bottom pressure (BP) variations related to ocean plate changes, and oceanic climate changes. We analyzed BP data at stations PG1 (41.7040N-144.4375E) and PG2 (42.2365N-144.8454E) obtained from the Long-Term Deep Sea Floor Observatory off Kushiro-Tokachi in the Kuril Trench, gridded daily sea surface height (SSH) data provided by AVISO, and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data at a repeated observation line off Akkeshi (A-line) from 2004 to 2013. In addition, we used Nino-3 index, which is the major index for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is given by the CPC/NOAA. It is suggested that SSH at PG1 and PG2 similarly vary affected by the Oyashio, the western boundary current of the North Pacific subarctic gyre, and El Nino events in 2006 and 2007 via atmospheric telconnections. BP time series at PG1 and PG2 are almost in phase in most of the analysis period, but from the early 2006 to the end of 2007, are quit discrepant in amplitude; at that occasion, BP at PG1 is much higher than that at PG2. Expecting a peculiar hydrographic feature at the occasion, CTD data along the A-line in January 2007 are analyzed. A lenticular eddy was found to exist in a layer between 1500 and 3000 dbar and to deepen substantially isopycnals of approximately 27.7 sigma-theta around a depth of 2000 dbar. Probably due to the baroclinic eddy feature, BP is kept low at PG2, while high at PG1. The subthermocline water occupying the deep eddy are considered not to be originated in the North Pacific but to be derived from the Southern Ocean.
Changing patterns of wildlife diseases
McLean, R.G.
2001-01-01
The purpose of this paper was not to analyze the effects of global warming on wildlife disease patterns, but to serve as a springboard for future efforts to identify those wildlife diseases, including zoonotic diseases, that could be influenced the most by warming climates and to encourage the development of models to examine the potential effects. Hales et al. (1999) examined the relationship of the incidence of a vector-borne human disease, Dengue fever, and El Nino southern oscillations for South Pacific Island nations. The development of similar models on specific wildlife diseases which have environmental factors strongly associated with transmission would provide information and options for the future management of our wildlife resources.
Interaction between the ENSO and the Asian monsoon in a coral record of tropical climate
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Charles, C.D.; Hunter, D.E.; Fairbanks, R.G.
1997-08-15
The oxygen isotopic composition of a banded coral from the western equatorial Indian Ocean provides a 150-year-long history of the relation between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Asian monsoon. Interannual cycles in the coral time series were found to correlate with Pacific coral and instrumental climate records, suggesting a consistent linkage across ocean basins, despite the changing frequency and amplitude of the ENSO. However, decadal variability that is characteristic of the monsoon system also dominates the coral record, which implies important interactions between tropical and midlatitude climate variability. One prominent manifestation of this interaction is the strongmore » amplitude modulation of the quasi-biennial cycle. 26 refs., 4 figs.« less
The First Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J.; Formenty, Pierre; Richardson, Jason H.; Britch, Seth C.; Schnabel, David C.; Erickson, Ralph L.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.
2009-01-01
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related anomalies were analyzed using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. This is the first prospective prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hansen, James W.; Jones, James W.; Kiker, Clyde F.; Hodges, Alan W.
1999-01-01
Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thompson, Anne M.
2003-01-01
The atmospheric impacts of tropical fires came to attention in the 1970's and there has been interest in the connection between these fires and ozone since about 1980. Photochemically reactive gases released by fires (e.g. NO, CO, volatile organic carbon) interact as they do in an urban environment to form ozone. Tropical meteorology also plays a part in tropospheric ozone distributions in the tropics - through large-scale circulation, deep convection, regional phenomena (West African and Asian monsoon) - and variations associated with El-Nino and the Quasi- biennial Oscillation have been reported. This Poster is an overview of observations, taken from satellite and from ozone soundings, that illustrate regional influences and intercontinental-range ozone transport in the tropics.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell
2014-01-01
Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.
Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.
2008-12-01
The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.
Is There Really an Intermittent Biennial Oscillation in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Over Texas?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Helfand, H. Mark
2002-01-01
In the 15-year GEOS-1 reanalysis data set, a maximum of interannual variance of low- level meridional flow for the warm season (May through August) occurs over southeast Texas. This variance maximum seems to be dominated by a marked biennial oscillation that occurs only during the first 6 (or possibly 8) years of the reanalysis period (1980-85 or possibly 1980-1987) and then completely disappears by the 9th year. This biennial oscillation seems to be associated with interannual fluctuations in ground wetness, surface temperature and surface pressure gradients over Texas. The periods of drier soil lead to warmer surface temperatures, lower surface pressures, stronger pressure gradients between Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and stronger southerly winds. This intermittent biennial oscillation is also evident in corresponding fields for the the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the years 1978-1985 (and possibly from 1978- 1987) and 1995-2000, but not during other periods. There are also obvious biennial oscillations evident during these periods in U.S. Climate Division records for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Texas. Month-by-month correlations of this index with certain el Nino related indices are as high as .45 for the first period and as high as .55 or .6 for the second period for some regions in Texas. The seasonal cycle of the biennial signal in the PDSI and precipitation for the first period suggest that the drought in Texas and Mexico is ended (caused) by a reversal in the sign of anomalies in precipitation rate for the fall/winter season. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST patterns shows a .5 to .75 K biennial oscillation of SSTs along the precipitation-free track to the southwest of the Mexican coast during the fall and winter months of the 1978 to 1985 period that might explain the reversal in precipitation anomalies and hence the entire intermittent biennial oscillation in ground hydrology and low-level flow.
Hall, Brenda L; Denton, George H; Fountain, Andrew G; Hendy, Chris H; Henderson, Gideon M
2010-12-14
The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes.
Hall, Brenda L.; Denton, George H.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Hendy, Chris H.; Henderson, Gideon M.
2010-01-01
The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes. PMID:21115838
Betinna M.J. Engelbrecht; S. Joseph Wright; Diane De Steven
2002-01-01
In tropical forests, severe droughts caused by El Nino events may strongly influence the water relations of tree seedlings and thereby increase their mortality. Data on known-aged seedlings of three common shade-tolerant canopy tree species (Trichilia tuberculata, Tetragastris panamensis and Quararibea asterolepis) in a Panamanian...
Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations.
Heino, Matias; Puma, Michael J; Ward, Philip J; Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Siebert, Stefan; Kummu, Matti
2018-03-28
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.
Anthropogenic and Climatic Influence on Vegetation Fires in Peatland of Insular Southeast Asia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liew, S.; Miettinen, J.; Salinas Cortijo, S. V.
2011-12-01
Fire is traditionally used as a tool in land clearing by farmers and shifting cultivators in Southeast Asia. However, the small scale clearing of land is increasingly being replaced by modern large-scale conversion of forests into plantations/agricultural land, usually also by fires. Fires get out of control in periods of extreme drought, especially during the El Nino periods, resulting in severe episodes of transboundary air pollution in the form of smoke haze. We use the MODIS active fires product (hotspots) to establish correlations between the temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation fires with climatic variables, land cover change and soil type (peat or non-peat) in the western part of Insular Southeast Asia for a decade from 2001 to 2010. Fire occurrence exhibits a negative correlation with rainfall, and is more severe overall during the El-Nino periods. However, not all regions are equally affected by El-Nino. In Southern Sumatra and Southern Borneo the correlation with El-Nino is high. However, fires in some regions such as the peatland in Riau, Jambi and Sarawak do not appear to be influenced by El-Nino. These regions are also experiencing rapid conversion of forest to large scale plantations.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shiotani, Masato; Hasebe, Fumio
1994-01-01
An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric mode and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.
Wavelet analysis of some rivers in SE Europe and selected climate indices.
Briciu, Andrei-Emil; Mihăilă, Dumitru
2014-10-01
The influence of some climatic oscillations and sunspot number on river flows in Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova is verified by using standard wavelet analyses. The selected climate oscillations are Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Oscillation (EAWRO), NINO3.4, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North America Oscillation (PNAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Polar/Eurasia Oscillation (PEO), Scandinavian Oscillation (ScandO), Southern Oscillation (SO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Forty-five hydrological stations from an area of 45,000 km(2) were used in order to discover the spatial evolution of the periodicities found in rivers. The wavelet analysis is novel for the rivers in the study area. There is an important difference between the periodicities found in mountain and plateau areas and those found in the plain area. There is a general downstream increase in the confidence level of the identified periods, even if the atmospheric precipitation has more relevant periodicities in the mountain area. The periodicities can be grouped into two compact groups: 1-16.5 and 27.8-55.6 years. The correlation matrix of the global wavelet spectrum (GWS) values indicates that NAO, EAWRO, PDO, and the sunspot number are the main factors that generate the periodicities in rivers. It is the first time when the influence of PDO on local rivers is proven. All river periodicities smaller than 16 years have a confidence level of 0.95 or above, as proven by the GWS analysis of the daily discharge data, and are caused by multiple external factors.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reid, Jeffrey S.; Xian, Peng; Holben, Brent N.; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Salinas, Santo V.; Zhang, Jianglong; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Holz, Robert E.;
2016-01-01
The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were
Physical Control of Biological Productivity Off the Coast of Peru During the 1997-1998 El Nino
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carr, Mary-Elena
1999-01-01
Satellite observations and an ecosystem model are used to understand the variability in the planktonic ecosystem off Peru for the period January 1996 to May 1998. The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in the ecosystem components, carbon pathways, and available food for small pelagic fish that occur associated with the change in physical forcing due to El Nino. Two periods are distinguished based on the observed sea level anomaly: a La Nina (LaN) period (1996) in which sea level was below normal and El Nino (EN), the average conditions for December 1997, in which the sea level was anomalously high. There are three phytoplankton size classes (pico-, nano-, and net-phytoplankton) which compete for nutrients and are eaten by three zooplankton size classes. The ecosystem model is forced by alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2). Larger, slower growing organisms are more sensitive to physical disturbance than smaller organisms (Carr, 1998]. In the present simulation as well, the primary effect of the El Nino (reduced nutrient supply, and increased temperature) is to reduce the biomass of large cells (netphytoplankton) and consequently of the zooplankton that rely on large cells as food source. EN conditions are accompanied by a rearrangement of carbon pathways: comparable uptake goes into reduced biomass accumulation, increased losses to respiration, reduced carbon export, and much reduced carbon available to fish. The star indicates the remotely sensed biomass (assuming a constant carbon to chlorophyll ratio of 60) as measured by the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (Nov.-Dec. 1996) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (Dec. 1997). The model, which assumes no light limitation, overestimates total phytoplankton biomass. Additional Information is contained in the original.
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu
2015-01-01
Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects. PMID:26537857
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.
Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu
2015-11-05
Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.
Expedition54_Education_In-flight_Para_Los_Ninos_053_1755_621343_hires
2018-02-22
SPACE STATION CREW MEMBER DISCUSSES LIFE IN SPACE WITH HISPANIC STUDENTS IN LOS ANGELES:::::::: Aboard the International Space Station, Expedition 54 Flight Engineer Joe Acaba of NASA discussed his mission on the complex and life and research in space with students at the Para Los Ninos School in Los Angeles during an in-flight educational event Feb. 22. Acaba, who has been in orbit since last September, is returning to Earth on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft on Feb. 27 (U.S. time) for a landing in south central Kazakhstan.
Cooperative satellite-based flood detection, mapping, and river monitoring in near real time
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brakenridge, Robert G.; Nghiem, Son V.
2004-01-01
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combine to influence the planetary wave structure over the northern hemisphere. Floods and droughts are associated around the world with ENSO through such teleconnections, and improved flood prediction relies on understanding them better. The scientific study of floods, and consistent measurements thereof, are needed in order to allow 'Greenhouse warming' predictions about flooding to be tested, and the hydrologic effects of other phenomena such as ENSO to be evaluated. The needed tasks are: 1) detection/warning of flooding, 2) flood magnitude assessment, 3) flood inundation mapping, and 4) preservation of the record of flooding. Accomplishing these same tasks provides direct local societal benefits as well: they can save lives and reduce economic loss. We emphasize that the basic science observations need not be divorced from the immediate practical applications: both can occur together, and just as is the case for meteorological remote sensing.
Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.
2016-12-01
Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.
Microwave Limb Sounder/El Nino Watch - 1997 Research Data Reveal Clues about El Nino's Influence
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image displays wind measurements taken by the satellite-borne NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) during the last 10 days of May 1997, showing the relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere at the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino condition. The data have helped scientists confirm that the event began as an unusual weakening of the trade winds that preceded an increase in sea surface temperatures. The arrows represent wind speed and direction while the colors indicate sea surface temperature. The sea surface temperatures were measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, a joint mission of NASA and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The trade winds normally blow from east to west, but the small arrows in the center of the image show the winds have changed direction and are blowing in the opposite direction. The areas shown in red are above normal sea surface temperatures -- along the equator, off the west coast of the U.S., and along the west coast of Mexico. This image also shows an unusual low pressure system with cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation near the western North American coast. NSCAT also observed that winds associated with this circulation pattern branched off from the equator, bypassed Hawaii, and brought heat and moisture from the tropical ocean towards San Francisco, in what is often called the 'pineapple express.'
Forecasting ENSO events: A neural network-extended EOF approach
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tangang, F.T.; Tang, B.; Monahan, A.H.
The authors constructed neural network models to forecast the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) for three regions: Nino 4. Nino 3.5, and Nino 3, representing the western-central, the central, and the eastern-central parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, respectively. The inputs were the extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOF) of the sea level pressure (SLP) field that covered the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and evolved for a duration of 1 yr. The EEOFs greatly reduced the size of the neural networks from those of the authors` earlier papers using EOFs. The Nino 4 region appeared to be the best forecastedmore » region, with useful skills up to a year lead time for the 1982-93 forecast period. By network pruning analysis and spectral analysis, four important inputs were identified: modes 1, 2, and 6 of the SLP EEOFs and the SSTA persistence. Mode 1 characterized the low-frequency oscillation (LFO, with 4-5-yr period), and was seen as the typical ENSO signal, while mode 2, with a period of 2-5 yr, characterized the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) plus the LFO. Mode 6 was dominated by decadal and interdecadal variations. Thus, forecasting ENSO required information from the QBO, and the decadal-interdecadal oscillations. The nonlinearity of the networks tended to increase with lead time and to become stronger for the eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 35 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs.« less
Teleconnections of ENSO and IOD to summer monsoon and rice production potential of India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jha, Somnath; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Raghava, Ramesh; Sinha, Mourani
2016-12-01
Regional trend of summer monsoon precipitation has been analyzed for broad physical regions of India namely, (i) Indo-Gangetic plain, (ii) Central and East India, (iii) Coastal and Peninsular India and (iv) Western India. A significantly drying trend has been found in the two regions namely, Indo-Gangetic plain and Central and East India with comparative seasonal rate of drying higher in the latter region. A complex relation between the regional trend of summer monsoon precipitation, global teleconnection parameters and rice production of the regions have been studied. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) have a significant role in the precipitation anomaly of Indo-Gangetic plain unlike Central and East India where the ENSO only plays role as global teleconnection parameter. Rice production of Central and East India has been found to be affected adversely during the El Nino years. Central and East India is found to be the worst affected region compared to the Indo-Gangetic plain with respect to its fragile rainfed rice production potential and strong adverse teleconnection of El Nino on the rice production in this zone.
The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oman, Luke; Douglass, Anne; Ziemke, Jerry; Waugh, Darryn Warwick
2016-01-01
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.
The Response of Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO in Observations and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Waugh, D. W.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2012-01-01
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-l anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) to provide insight into the vertical structure of ozone changes. The tropospheric ozone response to ENSO could be a useful chemistry-climate model evaluation tool and should be considered in future modeling assessments.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu
2018-03-01
Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Barnston, Anthony G.; Livezey, Robert E.
1990-01-01
Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.
Ramsey, David W.; Godt, Jonathan W.
1999-01-01
Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $21 million in damages were assessed in Sonoma County.
Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.
2009-01-01
Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.
Time series analysis of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave via symbolic transfer entropy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oh, Mingi; Kim, Sehyun; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong
2018-06-01
An attempt to interpret a large-scale climate phenomenon in the Southern Ocean (SO), the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), has been made using an information entropy method, symbolic transfer entropy (STE). Over the areas of 50-60∘S latitude belt, information flow for four climate variables, sea surface temperature (SST), sea-ice edge (SIE), sea level pressure (SLP) and meridional wind speed (MWS) is examined. We found a tendency that eastward flow of information is preferred only for oceanic variables, which is a main characteristic of the ACW, an eastward wave making a circuit around the Antarctica. Since the ACW is the coherent pattern in both ocean and atmosphere it is reasonable to infer that the tendency reflects the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) encircling the Antarctica, rather than an evidence of the ACW. We observed one common feature for all four variables, a strong information flow over the area of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which suggest a signature of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jury, Mark R.
2016-11-01
Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.
Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.
1999-07-01
Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will
Effect of interannual and interdecadal climate oscillations on groundwater in North Carolina
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, William P.; Emanuel, Ryan E.
2008-12-01
Multi-year climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) affect precipitation and stream discharge rates in the western hemisphere. While inferences may be drawn between these hydroclimatological relationships and groundwater conditions, few studies explicitly link groundwater conditions to these cycles. Here we investigate relationships between winter ENSO, PDO, and lagging baseflow rates in the southeastern United States. We find strong correlation between winter ENSO and lagged baseflow in coastal North Carolina which, coupled with anomalies in mean baseflow, decrease with distance inland from the coast. Our results demonstrate that interannual and interdecadal climate oscillations in the Pacific Ocean have a strong effect on hydrological processes in eastern North America despite filtering by the groundwater flow process. These results have implications for water resource availability in regions where water management is complicated by population growth and climatic uncertainty.
Urban emission, Santa Ana wind, and fire sources of aerosol nitrogen in Southern California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackey, K. R.; Stragier, S.; Robledo, L.; Cat, L. A.; Czimczik, C. I.
2017-12-01
Southern California is a highly urbanized region surrounded by extensive areas of agriculture and wilderness. While emissions from fossil fuel combustion are a large source of aerosol NOx in urban areas, fires contribute considerable aerosol NOx and ammonium in undeveloped regions. Southern California also has frequent wildfires, particularly during dry Santa Ana wind events that occur periodically throughout the winter. To explore the relative contributions of these sources to aerosol nitrogen content, we collected aerosol samples over two years in Irvine, a city in Southern California approximately 6 km from the Pacific coast. Samples were analyzed for total nitrogen and carbon content and isotopic composition (δ15N and δ13C), and nitrate and ammonium content. Carbon content was higher and δ13C values were lower in the winter than the summer. The C/N ratios of two samples collected during a Santa Ana wind event in January of 2012 were particularly elevated (C/N of 22 and 30) relative to other samples (C/N 3-6). We found that ammonium comprised 35% of total aerosol N across samples (R2=0.65), and that the δ15N of aerosol nitrogen decreased logarithmically as the proportion of nitrate in the sample increased (R2=0.60). Aerosol deposition of bioavailable nitrate and ammonium from these sources may support primary productivity in Southern California's coastal waters, particularly during the winter months and El Nino periods when upwelled nutrient sources are limited.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harris, S. M.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.
2013-12-01
This study aimed to understand the patterns and variations of extreme precipitation events that occur in Santa Barbara County and determine the relationships with various phenomena that affect the region. Santa Barbara, CA is an area with complex topography that is disposed to numerous hazard events including landslides and flooding, particularly during the region's rainy season (Nov.-Apr.). These incidents are especially frequent in the seasons after fire-events, another hazard common to the region. In addition, Santa Barbara is affected by several tropical phenomena that influence precipitation on varying timescales including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). It is well known that ENSO and the MJO influence storms that occur in southern California through processes such as the modulation of the upper level jet and the low level moisture flux. ARs have been revealed to be responsible for the movement of large quantities of water vapor from tropical areas to the midlatitudes and have been linked to high-intensity storms throughout the western coast of North America. We examined rainy season (Nov.-Apr.) precipitation within Santa Barbara County using hourly rainfall data spanning approximately forty years (~1971-2010) from seven, local, rain gauge stations. The distributions as well as totals of precipitation on varying timescales (hourly, daily, seasonal, and yearly) were defined for specified intensities of rainfall based upon the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Persistence, expressed as the number of consecutive hours (or days) including intense precipitation defined according to the percentiles, was investigated on the hourly and daily timescales. In addition, specified storm episodes identified in this study were examined with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission in order to assess the spatial features of high-intensity storms. Results from this analysis will be
Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Phase of Total Ozone Quasi-Decennial Oscillations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Visheratin, K. N.
2017-12-01
The SBUV/SBUV2 (65° S-65° N) and Bodeker Scientific (90° S-90° N) satellite databases have been used for composite and cross-wavelet analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of phase relations between a 11-year cycle of solar activity (SA) and quasi-decennial oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone content (TOC). For globally average TOC values, the QDO maxima coincide in phase with the solar-activity maxima, and amplitude variations of TOC correlate with those of the 11-year solar cycle. According to the analysis of amplitude and phase of QDOs for the zonal average TOC fields, a QDO amplitude is about 6-7 Dobson Units (DU) in the high northern and southern latitudes, and it does not exceed 2-3 DU in the tropic regions. The latitudinal TOC variations are distinguished by a delay of the quasi-decennial oscillation phase in the southern latitudes in comparison with the northern latitudes. The TOC maxima phase coincides with the SA maxima phase in the tropic regions; the TOC variations go ahead of the SA variations, on average, in moderate and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere; the TOC variations are behind the SA variations in the Southern Hemisphere. The phase delay between TOC QDO maxima in the northern and southern latitudes appears to increase in the course of time, and the TOC quasi-decennial variations in the Arctic and Antarctic subpolar regions occur approximately in an antiphase over the last two decades.
Empirical modeling ENSO dynamics with complex-valued artificial neural networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seleznev, Aleksei; Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry
2016-04-01
The main difficulty in empirical reconstructing the distributed dynamical systems (e.g. regional climate systems, such as El-Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) is a huge amount of observational data comprising time-varying spatial fields of several variables. An efficient reduction of system's dimensionality thereby is essential for inferring an evolution operator (EO) for a low-dimensional subsystem that determines the key properties of the observed dynamics. In this work, to efficient reduction of observational data sets we use complex-valued (Hilbert) empirical orthogonal functions which are appropriate, by their nature, for describing propagating structures unlike traditional empirical orthogonal functions. For the approximation of the EO, a universal model in the form of complex-valued artificial neural network is suggested. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by predicting both the Jin-Neelin-Ghil ENSO model [1] behavior and real ENSO variability from sea surface temperature anomalies data [2]. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Jin, F.-F., J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1996: El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: subharmonic frequency locking and aperiodicity. Physica D, 98, 442-465. 2. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/
Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven
2016-01-01
We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.
Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.; Lall, U.
2016-08-01
Floods are one of the most serious forms of natural hazards in terms of the damages they cause. In 2012 alone, flood damages exceeded 19 billion. A large proportion of the damages from several recent major flood disasters, such as those in South India and South Carolina (2015), England and Wales (2014), the Mississippi (2012), Thailand (2011), Queensland (Australia) (2010-2011), and Pakistan (2010), were related to the long duration of those flood events. However, most flood risk studies to date do not account for flood duration. In this paper, we provide the first global modelling exercise to assess the link between interannual climate variability and flood duration and frequency. Specifically, we examine relationships between simulated flood events and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results show that the duration of flooding appears to be more sensitive to ENSO than is the case for flood frequency. At the globally aggregated scale, we found floods to be significantly longer during both El Niño and La Niña years, compared to neutral years. At the scale of individual river basins, we found strong correlations between ENSO and both flood frequency and duration for a large number of basins, with generally stronger correlations for flood duration than for flood frequency. Future research on flood impacts should attempt to incorporate more information on flood durations.
Anderson, R.Y.; Linsley, B.K.; Gardner, J.V.
1990-01-01
Upper Pleistocene marine sediments along the upper continental slope off northern and central California contain alternations of varved and bioturbated sediments and associated changes in biota and sediment composition. These alternations can be related to conditions that accompany El Nin??o and anti-El Nin??o (ENSO) circulation. Anti-El Nin??o conditions are characterized by increased upwelling and productivity and by low concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the oxygen minimum zone that resulted in varve preservation. El Nin??o conditions are characterized by little or no upwelling, low productivity, and higher concentrations of dissolved oxygen that resulted in zones of bioturbation. Alternations of varves and zones of bioturbation, that range from decades to millennia, occur through the upper Pleistocene section. The inferred long-term alternations in El Nin??o and anti-El Nin??o conditions appear to be a re-expression of ENSO's primary 3-7 year cycle. Decadal to millennial cycles of productivity associated with El Nin??o and anti-El Nin??o conditions may have served as a "carbon pump" and transferred atmospheric CO2 to the marine reservoir. Changes in sediment composition and organisms associated with El Nin??o or anti-El Nin??o conditions can be related to both seasonal and ENSO phenomena. Expression of these changes at lower-than-ENSO frequencies may be partly explained by adding the effects of seasonal variability to effects produced by a self-oscillating ENSO system. However, deterministic mechanisms, including solar modulation of ENSO, may also contribute to long-term alternations of El Nin??o and anti-El Nin??o conditions. ?? 1990.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
During drinking water treatment chlorine reacts with total organic carbon (TOC) to form disinfection byproducts (DBP), some of which can be carcinogenic. Additional treatment required to remove TOC before chlorination significantly increases treatment cost. There are two main sources of TOC in a wat...
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shiotani, M.; Hasebe, F.
1994-07-01
An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric modemore » and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Masato Shiotani; Fumio Hasebe
1994-07-20
An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric modemore » and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time. 28 refs., 13 figs.« less
Ellis, William L.; Harp, Edwin L.; Arnal, Caroline H.; Godt, Jonathan W.
1999-01-01
Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $7.6 million in damages were assessed in Santa Clara County.
El Niño-southern oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time.
Yocom, Larissa L; Fulé, Peter Z; Brown, Peter M; Cerano, Julian; Villanueva-Díaz, José; Falk, Donald A; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio
2010-06-01
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool events (La Niñia) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences: Fire regimes were reconstructed from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo Le6n. The sites were approximately 25 ha each, and the site centers were approximately 1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645-1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 18.6 years (fires that scarred > or = 25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in
Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world
Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.
2014-01-01
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867
Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world
Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C
2014-01-01
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.
2014-01-01
Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Xiaolu; Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Bian, Jianchun; Mueller, Rolf
2017-04-01
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The extremes of ENSO patterns have impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate. The ENSO activities typically show pronounced features in boreal winter time, but some prolonged events may last for months or years. In this study we analyze the influence of ENSO on the atmospheric composition in the tropical and extra-tropical UTLS region in the months following strong ENSO events. In particular, we are interested in the impact of ENSO on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone. Using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), we define two composites starting from strong El Nino and La Nina winters (|MEI|>0.9) and analyze the anomalies caused by them in the following months. To quantify the differences in dynamics, the velocity potential (VP) and the stream function (SF) are calculated based on ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. SF shows that during winter the horizontal flow in the tropical UTLS is dominated by two equatorially symmetric anticyclones resembling the well-known Matsuno-Gill solution. In summer, the anticyclone in the North Hemisphere is shifted to the ASM region. VP shows that the centers of the divergent part of the flow lie in the West Tropical Pacific and Central Pacific for La Nina and El Nino winters, respectively. These centers move northwestwards during spring and summer. The anticyclone, subtropical jet and the divergent part of the flow after La Nina winters are significantly stronger than after El Nino winters. Based on the MLS measurements of CO, H2O and O3 from 2004 to 2015, we also discuss the respective anomalies at the tropopause level for the El Nino/La Nina composites. EL Nino composite of CO shows higher values in the tropical region not only during winter but also during spring and summer. La Nina composite of H2O shows low anomaly over Maritime Continent which spread over the whole tropics until summer. The H2O
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sear, D. A.; Hassall, J. D.; Langdon, P. G.; Croudace, I. W. C.; Maloney, A. E.; Sachs, J. P.
2015-12-01
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest source of interannual climate variability on the planet. Its behaviour leads to major hydro-climate impacts around the world, including flooding, drought, and altering cyclone frequency. Simulating ENSO behaviour is difficult using climate models, as it is a complex non-linear system, and hence predicting its future variability under changing climate is challenging. Using palaeoclimate data thus allows an insight into long-term ENSO behaviour against a range of different forcings throughout the Holocene. To date long, coherent, high resolution records from lake sediment archives have been limited to the Pacific Rim. We present new data from the closed crater Lake Lanoto'o, on Upolu Island, Samoa, located within the tropical South Pacific. The lake sediment record extends back into the early Holocene with an average sedimentation rate 0.4mm a-1. We demonstrate a strong correspondence between precipitation at the study site and measures of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)1. We compare geochemical proxies of precipitation to a long-term reconstruction of the SOI2. The resulting proxy SOI record extends over the last 9000 years, revealing scales of change in ENSO that match those recorded from sites located on the Pacific rim3,4. A major period of La-Nina dominance occurs around 4.5ka BP before abruptly switching to El-Nino dominance around 3.2ka. Thereafter, phases of El-Nino - La Nina dominance, alternate every c. 400yrs. The results point to prolonged phases of enhanced or reduced precipitation - conditions that may influence future population resilience to climate change, and may also have been triggers for the colonisation of more remote eastern Polynesia. 1. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/SOI.signal.annstd.ascii. 2. Yan, H. et al. (2011) Nature Geoscience, 4, p.611. 3. Conroy J. L. et al. (2008) Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, p.1166 4. Moy, C. M. et al. (2002) Nature, 420, p.162
Godt, Jonathan W.; Savage, William Z.; Wilson, Raymond C.
1999-01-01
Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. Napa County was relatively unaffected in comparison to other counties in the region with approximately $1.1 million in damages assessed.
Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis
2017-01-01
Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries—the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market. PMID:28594886
Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis.
Gutierrez, Luciano
2017-01-01
Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries-the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market.
Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.
2015-04-01
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric convection in the tropical Pacific, and modulates global weather and climate. The phase of ENSO influences United States (US) temperature and precipitation and has long been hypothesized to influence severe thunderstorm occurrence over the US. However, limitations of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season. Here we use environmental indices that are correlated with tornado and hail activity, and show that ENSO modulates tornado and hail occurrence during the winter and spring by altering the large-scale environment. We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions. Moreover, winter ENSO conditions often persist into early spring, and consequently the winter ENSO state can be used to predict changes in tornado and hail frequency during the following spring. Combined with our current ability to predict ENSO several months in advance, our findings provide a basis for long-range seasonal prediction of severe thunderstorm activity.
Variability in precipitation in a watershed in the altiplano, Peru and modes of variation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mazzarino, M.; Brown, C. M.
2012-12-01
This research examines system linkages between climate, water availability, pasture availability, camelids (llamas and alpacas) and indigenous herders in an Andean watershed in southern Peru. In this region, extreme meteorological events such as drought and flood, occur often and have the potential to negatively impact herding livelihoods. Predictability in the system is paramount to reducing risks associated with these events. In the altiplano, a large portion of variability in precipitation has been attributed to the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In light of climate change and observations by herders, this research returns to the question of teleconnections in the altiplano. We use December through March precipitation totals obtained from eight meteorological stations for 43 years (1964-2006) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic to characterize the hydroclimatology in the watershed and determine modes of variability. Following principal components analysis, prevailing periodicities in regional precipitation were determined using wavelet analysis and spatial correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between SST anomalies (SSTA's) and precipitation events in the watershed. Results suggest a non-linear and non-stationary mode of variability. We draw three conclusions from the results: 1) Positive precipitation extremes are dominated by an ENSO signal in the Nino 2 region; 2) Post 1987 there is a weak relationship, if any, between anomalously dry years in the precipitation record and SSTA's in the equatorial Pacific; 3) There is a stronger relationship (inverse) between precipitation in the region and SSTA's in the tropical Atlantic than previously believed.
Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.
2000-01-01
Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nagano, Akira; Hasegawa, Takuya; Ueki, Iwao; Ando, Kentaro
2017-07-01
We examined the covariation of sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux in the western tropical and northern subtropical Pacific on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation time scale, using a canonical correlation analysis of monthly data between 2001 and 2013. The dominant covariation, i.e., the first canonical mode, has large positive and negative amplitudes in regions east of the Philippines and New Guinea, respectively, and reaches peaks in autumn to winter of El Niño years. The positive SSS anomaly east of the Philippines is advected to the Kuroshio Extension region. We found that the second canonical mode is another coupled variation with localized amplitudes of SSS under the atmospheric convergence zones in winter to spring of La Niña years. However, the negative SSS anomaly is annihilated possibly by the evaporation in the subtropical region.
Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale
Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.
2013-01-01
Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo
1997-01-01
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.
Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rousseaux, Cecile
2012-01-01
The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.
The Effect of ENSO on Phytoplankton Composition in the Pacific Ocean
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rousseaux, Cecile
2012-01-01
The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p less than 0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Ni a events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.
Landfalling characteristics of the tropical cyclones generated in the South China Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, L.; Wang, D.
2012-12-01
Tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1970-2010 can mainly be divided into two categories: Westward (including west and northwest) and Eastward (east and northeast). TCs moving westward tend to make landfall along the South china or Vietnam coast, while those moving eastward tend to dissipate in the ocean or make landfall on Taiwan, Philippine Islands or occasionally the South China coast. During spring (April-May), there are 17 TCs generated in the SCS, among which 13 moves eastward, but only 4 moves westward. A total of 95 TCs forms in the SCS during TC peak season (June-September), among which 71 TCs move westward, about three times more than that moving eastward (24). During October-December, 33 TCs move westward and 12 eastward. The variability of TC track direction is investigated on intraseasonal, seasonal and inter-annual scale circulation. It is found that TC landfall activities are related to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), monsoon activities and TC genesis locations.
Inter-decadal change in El Niño-Southern Oscillation examined with Bjerknes stability index analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Soon-Il; Bong, Hayoung
2016-08-01
Characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have changed since the late 1970s as it synchronized with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In order to investigate the primary feedback process responsible for the interdecadal change in ENSO characteristics according to the PDO, using the ocean assimilation data (SODA) and the reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR), we performed Bjerknes linear stability index (BJ index) analysis of two decadal periods: one before the late 1970s (the nPDO period) and the other after the late 1970s (the pPDO period). The BJ index for the pPDO period (-0.07 year-1 for the growth rate of the eastern Pacific SST anomaly) is significantly larger than that for the nPDO period (-0.25 year-1). The larger BJ index value is primarily due to the enhanced zonal advection feedback (ZA; +0.44 year-1), thermocline feedback (TH; +0.33 year-1), and the reduced damping by the mean meridional current (MD; +0.16 year-1). The increases in ZA and TH are mainly attributed to the shoaling of the mean thermocline depth, which increased the sensitivity of the ocean dynamic fields to the wind forcing; and the reduced MD is related to the reduced mean meridional current associated with the weakened trade wind. The enhanced positive feedback is partly compensated by the enhanced thermodynamic damping including the shortwave, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux (collectively, -0.88 year-1). Interestingly, the change in air-sea coupling strength from the nPDO to the pPDO period was small. Without the two extreme El Niño events (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) in the pPDO period (pPDO_noBIG), the difference in BJ index between nPDO and pPDO_noBIG periods became smaller (~0.07 year-1), indicating that the two extreme El Niño events largely contribute to the larger ENSO variability of the pPDO period, possibly due to nonlinear feedback processes. Nevertheless, qualitative similarity in each of the feedback and damping components of BJ index exists between the p
Reviving oscillations in coupled nonlinear oscillators.
Zou, Wei; Senthilkumar, D V; Zhan, Meng; Kurths, Jürgen
2013-07-05
By introducing a processing delay in the coupling, we find that it can effectively annihilate the quenching of oscillation, amplitude death (AD), in a network of coupled oscillators by switching the stability of AD. It revives the oscillation in the AD regime to retain sustained rhythmic functioning of the networks, which is in sharp contrast to the propagation delay with the tendency to induce AD. This processing delay-induced phenomenon occurs both with and without the propagation delay. Further this effect is rather general from two coupled to networks of oscillators in all known scenarios that can exhibit AD, and it has a wide range of applications where sustained oscillations should be retained for proper functioning of the systems.
Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meyers, Steven D.; Melsom, Arne; Mitchum, Gary T.; O'Brien, James J.
1998-11-01
Previous analyses of the ocean state along the western American coast have often indicated unexpectedly slow and limited propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In contrast, theoretical and numerical ocean models demonstrate that these Kelvin waves are a rapid and long-range teleconnection between the low- and high-latitude Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting both the surface coastal currents and nutrient upwelling. Sea level variations along the western coast of North America are reexamined under the assumption that tropically forced Kelvin waves are produced in bursts of several months duration. A cross-correlation analysis, restricted to mid-1982 to mid-1983, is performed between Galapagos Island and stations along western Central and North America. A coastally trapped Kelvin wave is revealed to propagate at a speed of 2-3 m s-1 from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian Island Chain. The observed phase speed agrees with the estimated speed of a Kelvin wave based on the average density profile of the ocean near the coast. Weaker El Niño events in 1986/1987 and 1991/1992 appear to contain a combination of this remote signal and local wind forcing. The wave propagation speed calculated from the spectral phase is shown to be sensitive to the presence of other (noise) processes in the observations. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a synthetic sea level data set that contains many of the essential features of the real sea level data. A relatively small level of red noise can give a 100% expected error in the estimated propagation speed. This suggests a new explanation for this important inconsistency within dynamical oceanography.
Examination of Satellite and Model Reanalysis Precipitation with Climate Oscillations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donato, T. F.; Houser, P. R.
2016-12-01
The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of satellite and model reanalysis precipitation with climate oscillations. Specifically, we examine and compare the relationship between the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) in regards to four climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, the Southern Annular Mode and Solar Activity. This analysis covers a 35-year observation period from 1980 through 2015. We ask two questions: How is global and regional precipitation changing over the observation period, and how are global and regional variations in precipitation related to global climate variation? We explore and compare global and regional precipitation trends between the two data sets. To do this, we constructed a total of 56 Regions of Interest (ROI). Nineteen of the ROIs were focused on geographic regions including continents, ocean basins, and marginal seas. Twelve ROIs examine hemispheric processes. The remaining 26 regions are derived from spatial-temporal classification analysis of GPCP data over a ten-year period (2001-2010). These regions include the primary wet and dry monsoon regions, regions influenced by western boundary currents, and orography. We investigate and interpret the monthly, seasonal and yearly global and regional response to the selected climate indices. Initial results indicate that no correlation exist between the GPCP data and Merra-2 data. Preliminary qualitative assessment between GCPC and solar activity suggest a possible relationship in intra-annual variability. This work is performed under the State of the Global Water and Energy Cycle (SWEC) project, a NASA-sponsored program in support of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS).
Thai, Khoa T. D.; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F.; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P.; van Doorn, H. Rogier; de Vries, Peter J.
2010-01-01
Background Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Methodology Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Principal Findings We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found. Conclusions A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam. PMID:20644621
Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J
2010-07-13
Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.
2017-12-01
This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.
Non-stationarity in US droughts and implications for water resources planning and management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Apurv, T.; Cai, X.
2017-12-01
The concepts of return period and reliability are widely used in hydrology for quantifying the risk of extreme events. The conventional way of calculating return period and reliability requires the assumption of stationarity and independence of extreme events in successive years. These assumptions may not be true for droughts since a single drought event can last for more than one year. Further, droughts are known to be influenced by multi-year to multi-decadal oscillations (eg. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), which means that the underlying distribution can change with time. In this study, we develop a non-stationary frequency analysis for relating meteorological droughts in the continental US (CONUS) with physical covariates. We calculate the return period and reliability of meteorological droughts in different parts of CONUS by considering the correlation and the non-stationarity in drought events. We then compare the return period and reliability calculated assuming non-stationarity with that calculated assuming stationarity. The difference between the two estimates is used to quantify the extent of non-stationarity in droughts in different parts of CONUS. We also use the non-stationary frequency analysis model for attributing the causes of non-stationarity. Finally we will discuss the implications for water resources planning and management in the United States.
Cessation of oscillations in a chemo-mechanical oscillator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Phogat, Richa; Tiwari, Ishant; Kumar, Pawan; Rivera, Marco; Parmananda, Punit
2018-06-01
In this paper, different methods for cessation of oscillations in a chemo-mechanical oscillator [mercury beating heart (MBH)] are presented. The first set of experiments were carried out on a single MBH oscillator. To achieve cessation of oscillations, two protocols, namely, inverted feedback and delayed feedback were employed. In the second set of experiments, two quasi-identical MBH oscillators are considered. They are first synchronized via a bidirectional attractive coupling. These two synchronized oscillators are thereafter coupled with a unidirectional repulsive coupling and the system dynamics were observed. Subsequently, in the next protocol, the effect of a unidirectional delay coupling on the two synchronized oscillators was explored. The cessation of oscillations in all the above experimental setups was observed as the feedback/coupling was switched on at a suitable strength. Oscillatory dynamics of the system were restored when the feedback/coupling was switched off.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yao, Chenyu; Huang, Qian; Zhu, Bin; Liu, Fei
2018-06-01
Using ECMWF ERA-Interim 6-h reanalysis data, zonal wind intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) in the entrance region of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) in winter from 1979/1980 to 2012/2013 are studied. The results first show that there is an area with large ISO strength in the northwest of the EASWJ; in the key region, zonal wind has a dominant period of 10-30 days. The composite analysis reveals that zonal wind at 200 hPa in this key region has 10-30-day oscillation characteristics. On the 10-30-day time scale, the center of zonal wind anomaly moves eastward. The propagation of zonal wind oscillation relates to temperature tendencies at different latitudes. The remarkable increase (or decrease) in zonal wind in the key region is mostly determined by temperature anomalies to the north. The 10-30-day filtered temperature advection to the north of the key region leads to either a decrease or an increase in temperature; on the other hand, temperature variations south of the key region have trends opposite of the northern trends, which changes the temperature gradient. On the 10-30-day time scale, zonal wind anomalies are associated with precipitation in southern China. When there are easterly wind anomalies over the key region, precipitation occurs over the Yangtze River basin and its south. Diabatic heating during precipitation corresponds with warming to the south of the key region, which combines with the temperature advection to weaken the easterly wind and strengths the westerly wind. Then, the intra-seasonal precipitation moves to southwest China with warm advection and the enhanced westerly wind, which brings the positive relative vorticity advection there.
Temperature And Wind Velocity Oscillations Along a Gentle Slope During Sea-Breeze Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe
2005-03-01
The flow structure on a gentle slope at Vallon d’Ol in the northern suburbs of Marseille in southern France has been documented by means of surface wind and temperature measurements collected from 7 June to 14 July 2001 during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The analysis of the time series reveals temperature and wind speed oscillations during several nights (about 60--90 min oscillation period) and several days (about 120-180 min oscillation period) during the whole observing period. Oscillating katabatic winds have been reported in the literature from theoretical, experimental and numerical studies. In the present study, the dynamics of the observed oscillating katabatic winds are in good agreement with the theory.In contrast to katabatic winds, no daytime observations of oscillating anabatic upslope flows have ever been published to our knowledge, probably because of temperature inversion break-up that inhibits upslope winds. The present paper shows that cold air advection by a sea breeze generates a mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient, and hence baroclinicity in the atmosphere, which then allows low-frequency oscillations, similar to a katabatic flow. An expression for the oscillation period is derived that accounts for the contribution of the sea-breeze induced mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient. The theoretical prediction of the oscillation period is compared to the measurements, and good agreement is found. The statistical analysis of the wind flow at Vallon d’Ol shows a dominant north-easterly to easterly flow pattern for nighttime oscillations and a dominant south-westerly flow pattern for daytime oscillations. These results are consistent with published numerical simulation results that show that the air drains off the mountain along the maximum slope direction, which in the studied case is oriented south-west to north-east.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide
2015-12-01
Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.
Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.
2010-12-01
Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (P<0.05) with a 600
Kurtz, Bruce E
2014-01-01
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the northward flow of surface water to subpolar latitudes where deepwater is formed, balanced by southward abyssal flow and upwelling in the vicinity of the Southern Ocean. It is generally accepted that AMOC flow oscillates with a period of 60-80 years, creating a regular variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This article attempts to answer two questions: how is the AMOC driven and why does it oscillate? Using methods commonly employed by chemical engineers for analyzing processes involving flowing liquids, apparently not previously applied to trying to understand the AMOC, an equation is developed for AMOC flow as a function of the meridional density gradient or the corresponding temperature gradient. The equation is based on the similarity between the AMOC and an industrial thermosyphon loop cooler, which circulates a heat transfer liquid without using a mechanical pump. Extending this equation with an analogy between the flow of heat and electricity explains why the AMOC flow oscillates and what determines its period. Calculated values for AMOC flow and AMO oscillation period are in good agreement with measured values.
Kurtz, Bruce E.
2014-01-01
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the northward flow of surface water to subpolar latitudes where deepwater is formed, balanced by southward abyssal flow and upwelling in the vicinity of the Southern Ocean. It is generally accepted that AMOC flow oscillates with a period of 60–80 years, creating a regular variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This article attempts to answer two questions: how is the AMOC driven and why does it oscillate? Using methods commonly employed by chemical engineers for analyzing processes involving flowing liquids, apparently not previously applied to trying to understand the AMOC, an equation is developed for AMOC flow as a function of the meridional density gradient or the corresponding temperature gradient. The equation is based on the similarity between the AMOC and an industrial thermosyphon loop cooler, which circulates a heat transfer liquid without using a mechanical pump. Extending this equation with an analogy between the flow of heat and electricity explains why the AMOC flow oscillates and what determines its period. Calculated values for AMOC flow and AMO oscillation period are in good agreement with measured values. PMID:24940739
The Southern Oscillation, Hypoxia, and the Eastern Pacific Tuna Fishery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Webster, D.; Kiefer, D.; Lam, C. H.; Harrison, D. P.; Armstrong, E. M.; Hinton, M.; Luo, L.
2012-12-01
The Eastern Pacific tuna fishery, which is one of the world's major fisheries, covers thousands of square kilometers. The vessels of this fishery are registered in more than 30 nations and largely target bigeye (Thunnus obesus), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and yellowfin (T. albacores) tuna. In both the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module project, which is sponsored by NASA, and the Fishscape project, which is sponsored by NSF, we have attempted to define the habitat of the three species by matching a 50 year time series on fish catch and effort with oceanographic information obtained from satellite imagery and from a global circulation model. The fishery time series, which was provided by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, provided spatial maps of catch and effort at monthly time steps; the satellite imagery of the region consisted of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and height from GHRSST, SEAWiFS, and AVISO products, and the modeled flow field at selected depths was output from ECCO-92 simulations from 1992 to present. All information was integrated and analyzed within the EASy marine geographic information system. This GIS will also provides a home for the Fishscape spatial simulation model of the coupled dynamics of the ocean, fish, fleets, and markets. This model will then be applied to an assessment of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change, technological advances in fleet operations, and increases in fuel costs. We have determined by application of EOF analysis that the ECCO-2 simulation of sea surface height fits well with that of AVISO imagery; thus, if driven properly by predictions of future air-sea exchange, the model should provide good estimates of circulation patterns. We have also found that strong El Nino events lead to strong recruitment of all three species and strong La Nina events lead to weak recruitment. Finally, we have found that the general spatial distribution of the Eastern Pacific fishing grounds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.
2017-04-01
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Influences Drought (June 27, 2004)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2004-01-01
Recent sea level height data from the U.S./France Jason altimetric satellite during a 10-day cycle ending June 27, 2004, shows that Pacific equatorial surface ocean heights and temperatures are near neutral, but perhaps tending towards a mild La Nina for this summer and into the fall. 'In the U.S. we are still under the influence of the larger than El Nino and La Nina Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift in Pacific Ocean heat content and temperature patterns.' Much of the nation's western farmland and forests are really dry as we continue to struggle with a severe 6-year drought. The reality is that the atmosphere is acting as though La Nina is present. This continuing oceanic pattern in the Pacific and atmospheric pattern over the western U.S. is also a precursor for an active hurricane season for the East and Gulf coasts for our coming summer and fall,' said JPL oceanographer Dr. Bill Patzert. These images show sea surface height anomalies with the seasonal cycle (the effects of summer, fall, winter, and spring) removed. The differences between what we see and what is normal for different times and regions are called anomalies, or residuals. When oceanographers and climatologists view these 'anomalies' they can identify unusual patterns and can tell us how heat is being stored in the ocean to influence future planetary climate events. Each image is a 10-day average of data, ending on the date indicated.Pacific Decadal Oscillation Influences Drought (June 15, 2004)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2004-01-01
Recent sea level height data from the U.S./France Jason altimetric satellite during a 10-day cycle ending June 15, 2004, shows that Pacific equatorial surface ocean heights and temperatures are near neutral, but perhaps tending towards a mild La Nina for this summer and into the fall. 'In the U.S. we are still under the influence of the larger than El Nino and La Nina Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift in Pacific Ocean heat content and temperature patterns.' Much of the nation's western farmland and forests are really dry as we continue to struggle with a severe 6-year drought. The reality is that the atmosphere is acting as though La Nina is present. This continuing oceanic pattern in the Pacific and atmospheric pattern over the western U.S. is also a precursor for an active hurricane season for the East and Gulf coasts for our coming summer and fall,' said JPL oceanographer Dr. Bill Patzert. These images show sea surface height anomalies with the seasonal cycle (the effects of summer, fall, winter, and spring) removed. The differences between what we see and what is normal for different times and regions are called anomalies, or residuals. When oceanographers and climatologists view these 'anomalies' they can identify unusual patterns and can tell us how heat is being stored in the ocean to influence future planetary climate events. Each image is a 10-day average of data, ending on the date indicated.NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jenkins, Alejandro
2013-04-01
Physicists are very familiar with forced and parametric resonance, but usually not with self-oscillation, a property of certain dynamical systems that gives rise to a great variety of vibrations, both useful and destructive. In a self-oscillator, the driving force is controlled by the oscillation itself so that it acts in phase with the velocity, causing a negative damping that feeds energy into the vibration: no external rate needs to be adjusted to the resonant frequency. The famous collapse of the Tacoma Narrows bridge in 1940, often attributed by introductory physics texts to forced resonance, was actually a self-oscillation, as was the swaying of the London Millennium Footbridge in 2000. Clocks are self-oscillators, as are bowed and wind musical instruments. The heart is a “relaxation oscillator”, i.e., a non-sinusoidal self-oscillator whose period is determined by sudden, nonlinear switching at thresholds. We review the general criterion that determines whether a linear system can self-oscillate. We then describe the limiting cycles of the simplest nonlinear self-oscillators, as well as the ability of two or more coupled self-oscillators to become spontaneously synchronized (“entrained”). We characterize the operation of motors as self-oscillation and prove a theorem about their limit efficiency, of which Carnot’s theorem for heat engines appears as a special case. We briefly discuss how self-oscillation applies to servomechanisms, Cepheid variable stars, lasers, and the macroeconomic business cycle, among other applications. Our emphasis throughout is on the energetics of self-oscillation, often neglected by the literature on nonlinear dynamical systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perez Cruz, L.; Idris, N.; El-Askary, H. M.
2015-12-01
Recently, it has been reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that there is very high chance not only for El Niño to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, but also a remarkable chance for El Niño to last into early spring 2016. This research aims at: 1) investigating the impact of El Niño on precipitation in the Southern California Climate Divisions: Climate Division 6 South Coast Drainage, and Division 7 South Coast Desert Basin. 2) Analyzing the precipitation of Southern California region using the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method (EMD). 3) Looking at the SOI components and compare it with the precipitation components of Southern California Climate Divisions. 4) Comparing precipitation data with Niño indices: Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Nino 3.4, and Niño 4. As results, we found a significant cross correlation of 0.7 between SOI component 10 and precipitation component 10 in Climate Division 6. Furthermore, among all the Niño indices, Niño 3 region displayed the best correlation. When we compared precipitation division 7 component 9 with Niño 3 component 10, a 0.95 cross correlation value was obtained. The lowest cross correlation value of (0.33) was obtained from Climate Division 6, precipitation component 7 with Niño 4 component 7.
Development of a rainfall sensitive tree-ring chronology in Zimbabwe
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stahle, D.W.; Cleaveland, M.K.; Nicholson, S.E.
1997-11-01
This paper reports the discovery of annual tree ring formation in two species of trees in Zimbabwe and describes their paleoclimatic reconstruction potential. Due to the strong influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the climate and crop yields of Zimbabwe and surrenting areas, and the rarity of annual tree ring chronologies in the tropics, the discovery of climatically sensitive growth rings is extremely significant. In particular, the Pterocarpus angolensis shows a strong correlation between the derived tree ring chronology and regional rainfall amounts. Based on sampling at the Sikumi Forest, it is speculated that P. angolensis may routinely achieve overmore » 200 years in age. Four lines of evidence are identified which indicate that the semi-ring porous growth bands in P. angolensis are exactly annual growth rings. 18 refs., 3 figs.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glennie, E.; Anyamba, A.; Eastman, R.
2016-12-01
A time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images was compared to National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) corn yield data in the Corn Belt of the United States from 1982 to 2014. The relationship between NDVI and crop yields under El Nino, neutral, and La Nina conditions was used to assess 1) the reliability of using NDVI as an indicator of crop productivity, and 2) the response of the Corn Belt to El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection effects. First, bi-monthly NDVI data were combined into monthly data using the maximum value compositing technique to reduce cloud contamination and other effects. The most representative seasonal curve of NDVI values over the course of the study period was extracted to define the growing season in the region - May to October. Standardized NDVI anomalies were calculated and averaged to produce a growing season NDVI metrics to represent each Agricultural Statistics Division (ASD) for each year in the study period. The corn yields were detrended in order to remove effects of technological advancements on crop productivity (use of genetically modified seeds, fertilizer, herbicides). Correlation (R) values between the NDVI anomalies and detrended corn yields varied across the Corn Belt, with a maximum of 0.81 and mean of 0.49. While corn is the dominant crop in the region, some inconsistencies between corn yield and NDVI may be accounted for by an increase in soy yield for a given year due to crop rotation practices. The 10 El Nino events and 9 La Nina events that occurred between 1982 and 2014 are not reflected in a consistent manner in NDVI or corn yield data. However, composites of NDVI and crop yields for all El Nino events indicate there is a tendency for higher than normal NDVI and increased corn yields. Conversely, the composite crop yield image for La Nina events shows a slight decrease in productivity.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.
2016-12-01
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI < µ - σ) events occurring between January 1979 and June 2016. ERA-Interim reanalysis output on model levels was used to quantify spatial and temporal covariance of HMF at 6-hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent
Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago
2012-09-01
The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Peairson, Shannon; Austin, Ann M. Berghout; de Aquino, Cyle Nielsen; de Burro, Elizabeth Urbieta
2008-01-01
Participants included 106 infants and toddlers living in rural Paraguay and their primary caregiver. Children ranged in age from birth to 24 months and belonged to two distinct groups, including 46 children who had never participated in Pastoral del Nino, an early child development program, and 60 children who had participated in Pastoral for at…
Investigating the Control of Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Global Terrestrial Evaporation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martens, B.; Waegeman, W.; Dorigo, W.; Verhoest, N.; Miralles, D. G.
2017-12-01
Intra-annual and multi-decadal variability in Earth's climate is strongly driven by periodic oscillations in the coupled state of our atmosphere and ocean. These oscillations do not only impact climate in nearby regions, but can also have an effect on the climate in remote areas, a phenomenon that is often referred to as teleconnection. Because changes in local climate immediately affect terrestrial ecosystems through a series of complex processes, ocean-atmospheric oscillations are expected to influence land evaporation; i.e. the return flux of water from land into the atmosphere. In this presentation, the effects of ocean-atmospheric oscillations on global terrestrial evaporation are analysed. We use multi-decadal, satellite-based observations of different climate variables (air temperature, radiation, precipitation) in combination with a simple supervised learning method - the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator - to detect the impact of sixteen leading ocean-atmospheric oscillations on terrestrial evaporation. The latter is retrieved using the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). The analysis reveals hotspot regions in which more than 30% of the inter-annual variability in terrestrial evaporation can be explained by ocean-atmospheric oscillations. The impact is different per region and season, and can typically be attributed to a small subset of oscillations. For instance, the dynamics in terrestrial evaporation over eastern Australia are substantially impacted by both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during Austral spring. Using the same learning method, but targeting terrestrial evaporation based on its local climatic drivers (air temperature, precipitation, and radiation), shows the dominant control of precipitation on terrestrial evaporation in Australia, suggesting that both ENSO and IOD affect the precipitation, in his turn influencing evaporation. The latter is confirmed by regressing
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mac Donald, David R.; Karayan, Michael S.
In this lesson plan, the city of Malibu (CA) is at the mercy of the weather phenomenon El Nino. The press secretary for the Mayor of Malibu recognizes an opportunity to turn this potential natural disaster into a re-election campaign. A task force will be assembled to protect the lives and property of the community. Students role play members of…
Let Book Joy Begin @ Your Library[R]!: Ten Years of El Dia de los Ninos/El Dia de los Libros
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Roy, Loriene
2007-01-01
Ten years ago, in 1996, poet and children's book author, Pat Mora began celebrating "book joy" by founding a children's book and reading day, El Dia de los Ninos/El Dia de los Libros or Children's Day/Book Day. Dia is modeled on National Children's Day Celebrations in Mexico held since 1925 when it was launched in conjunction with a…
Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Willems, Patrick
2013-04-01
Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water
Soil CO2 Flux in the Amargosa Desert, Nevada, during El Nino 1998 and La Nina 1999
Riggs, Alan C.; Stannard, David I.; Maestas, Florentino B.; Karlinger, Michael R.; Striegl, Robert G.
2009-01-01
Mean annual soil CO2 fluxes from normally bare mineral soil in the Amargosa Desert in southern Nevada, United States, measured with clear and opaque soil CO2-flux chambers (autochambers) were small - <5 millimoles per square meter per day - during both El Nino 1998 and La Nina 1999. The 1998 opaque-chamber flux exceeded 1999 opaque-chamber flux by an order of magnitude, whereas the 1998 clear-chamber flux exceeded 1999 clear-chamber flux by less than a factor of two. These data suggest that above-normal soil moisture stimulated increased metabolic activity, but that much of the extra CO2 produced was recaptured by plants. Fluxes from warm moist soil were the largest sustained fluxes measured, and their hourly pattern is consistent with enhanced soil metabolic activity at some depth in the soil and photosynthetic uptake of a substantial portion of the CO2 released. Flux from cool moist soil was smaller than flux from warm moist soil. Flux from hot dry soil was intermediate between warm-moist and cool-moist fluxes, and clear-chamber flux was more than double the opaque-chamber flux, apparently due to a chamber artifact stemming from a thermally controlled CO2 reservoir near the soil surface. There was no demonstrable metabolic contribution to the very small flux from cool dry soil, which was dominated by diffusive up-flux of CO2 from the water table and temperature-controlled CO2-reservoir up- and down-fluxes. These flux patterns suggest that transfer of CO2 across the land surface is a complex process that is difficult to accurately measure.
Quenching oscillating behaviors in fractional coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Zhongkui; Xiao, Rui; Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei
2018-03-01
Oscillation quenching has been widely studied during the past several decades in fields ranging from natural sciences to engineering, but investigations have so far been restricted to oscillators with an integer-order derivative. Here, we report the first study of amplitude death (AD) in fractional coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators with partial and/or complete conjugate couplings to explore oscillation quenching patterns and dynamics. It has been found that the fractional-order derivative impacts the AD state crucially. The area of the AD state increases along with the decrease of the fractional-order derivative. Furthermore, by introducing and adjusting a limiting feedback factor in coupling links, the AD state can be well tamed in fractional coupled oscillators. Hence, it provides one an effective approach to analyze and control the oscillating behaviors in fractional coupled oscillators.
Bird, Douglas W.; Codding, Brian F.
2016-01-01
While evidence mounts that indigenous burning has a significant role in shaping pyrodiversity, the processes explaining its variation across local and external biophysical systems remain limited. This is especially the case with studies of climate–fire interactions, which only recognize an effect of humans on the fire regime when they act independently of climate. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that an anthropogenic fire regime (fire incidence, size and extent) does not covary with climate. In the lightning regime, positive El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) values increase lightning fire incidence, whereas La Niña (and associated increases in prior rainfall) increase fire size. ENSO has the opposite effect in the Martu regime, decreasing ignitions in El Niño conditions without affecting fire size. Anthropogenic ignition rates covary positively with high antecedent rainfall, whereas fire size varies only with high temperatures and unpredictable winds, which may reduce control over fire spread. However, total area burned is similarly predicted by antecedent rainfall in both regimes, but is driven by increases in fire size in the lightning regime, and fire number in the anthropogenic regime. We conclude that anthropogenic regimes covary with climatic variation, but detecting the human–climate–fire interaction requires multiple measures of both fire regime and climate. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216513
Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea level anomalies along the Gulf of Mexico coast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kennedy, Andrew J.; Griffin, Melissa L.; Morey, Steven L.; Smith, Shawn R.; O'Brien, James J.
2007-05-01
Analyses of daily sea level data show the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Data from three stations (St. Petersburg, Florida, Pensacola, Florida, and Galveston, Texas), all of which have at least 50 years of daily observations, are processed to identify the interannual signals. Although low frequency (interannual) signals in the sea level anomaly time series are not clearly evident, a low frequency modulation of the extreme anomaly events (upper 10% or lower 10% of the distributions) is identified. Results show that sea level variability is seasonally dependent at all stations, with maximum variability in the winter months. In the eastern GOM, low sea level events in the winter months are more frequent during El Niño (warm phase) conditions when compared to a neutral ENSO phase. This is consistent with ENSO-related changes in the location where extratropical atmospheric low pressure systems form and in the tracks of these weather systems. The impacts of tropical systems in the summer through early fall months on coastal sea level in the GOM are shown by infrequent extreme high and low anomalies coinciding with individual storms. However, the number of storms affecting the data record from a particular sea level station is too small to confirm ENSO-related variability. Statistical methods are employed to demonstrate a significant link between extreme sea level anomalies in the GOM and ENSO during the October to March period.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Espinosa, Ismael; Gonzalez, Hortensia; Quiza, Jorge; Gonazalez, J. Jesus; Arroyo, Ruben; Lara, Ritaluz
1995-01-01
Oscillation of electrical activity has been found in many nervous systems, from invertebrates to vertebrates including man. There exists experimental evidence of very simple circuits with the capability of oscillation. Neurons with intrinsic oscillation have been found and also neural circuits where oscillation is a property of the network. These two types of oscillations coexist in many instances. It is nowadays hypothesized that behind synchronization and oscillation there is a system of coupled oscillators responsible for activities that range from locomotion and feature binding in vision to control of sleep and circadian rhythms. The huge knowledge that has been acquired on oscillators from the times of Lord Rayleigh has made the simulation of neural oscillators a very active endeavor. This has been enhanced with more recent physiological findings about small neural circuits by means of intracellular and extracellular recordings as well as imaging methods. The future of this interdisciplinary field looks very promising; some researchers are going into quantum mechanics with the idea of trying to provide a quantum description of the brain. In this work we describe some simulations using neuron models by means of which we form simple neural networks that have the capability of oscillation. We analyze the oscillatory activity with root locus method, cross-correlation histograms, and phase planes. In the more complicated neural network models there is the possibility of chaotic oscillatory activity and we study that by means of Lyapunov exponents. The companion paper shows an example of that kind.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.
2016-12-01
Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon
Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gergis, Joëlle; Henley, Benjamin J.
2017-04-01
This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-eastern Australia (SEA), southern South Africa (SAF) and southern South America (SSA). We provide a first comparison of rainfall variations in these three regions over the past two centuries, with a focus on identifying synchronous wet and dry periods. Despite the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal limitations of the rainfall reconstructions, we find evidence of dynamically-forced climate influences. An investigation of the twentieth century relationship between regional rainfall and the large-scale climate circulation features of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions revealed that Indo-Pacific variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole dominate rainfall variability in SEA and SAF, while the higher latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exerts a greater influence in SSA. An assessment of the stability of the regional rainfall-climate circulation modes over the past two centuries revealed a number of non-stationarities, the most notable of which occurs during the early nineteenth century around 1820. This corresponds to a time when the influence of ENSO on SEA, SAF and SSA rainfall weakens and there is a strengthening of the influence of SAM. We conclude by advocating the use of long-term palaeoclimate data to estimate decadal rainfall variability for future water resource management.
Population dynamics of tule elk at point Reyes National Seashore, California
Howell, J.A.; Brooks, G.C.; Semenoff-Irving, M.; Greene, C.
2002-01-01
The presence of locally abundant wildlife raises questions about natural regulation and ecological consequences of overpopulation. We sought to establish precise information about population size, structure, and productivity to examine the role of natural regulation in a closed tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes) population at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA. We estimated an instantaneous exponential growth rate of 0.19 with an adjusted R2 = 0.98 during 1998, 20 years after the elk were introduced. We estimated annual survival for adult cows of nearly 0.95. Calf survival from birth through the rut ending during October-November was 0.85. Male calves exhibited higher mortality than female calves. Cow mortality was associated with the calving season. We measured a 42% increase in cow:calf density from 0.733 ha-1 to 1.043 ha-1 during 1996-1998. We observed a density-correlated reduction in the rate of increase and in the cow:calf ratios prior to high precipitation El Nin??o Southern Oscillation years, 1993, 1996, and 1997, precipitation >1.23 m year-1. Given the high population growth rate and model evaluation of management scenarios, park managers will need to use a suite of approaches, such as contraception and removal, to maintain the elk population at levels at or near the closed-range carrying capacity for years between El Nin??o events.
Giarla, Thomas C; Jansa, Sharon A
2015-05-01
Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north-south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of 'montane-like' habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Further studies on possible volcanic signal to the ozone layer
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zerefos, C. S.; Tourpali, K.; Bais, A. F.
1994-12-01
This paper provides a new look at the spatial and temporal distribution of monthly mean residuals of the global ozone field following the two large volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo. The residuals have been calculated after careful removal of the components of known oscillations from the monthly mean total ozone records. The removal eliminated not only the well-established Quasi Biennial Oscillation but also the robust pattern of all El Nino/Southern Oscillation events active during the period of study. These residuals are composed by a "climatic noise" term plus a possible volcanic signal whose amplitude is in some agreement with model calculations particularly over low and middle latitudes following the recent Pinatubo eruption. However, this analysis shows no ozone deficiency following El Chichon over the southern hemisphere and this result can be explained by the prevailing winds in the lower stratosphere in the post-El Chichon period as described in the text. Quantitatively speaking, the magnitude of the observed ozone deficiency which can be attributed to the volcanic effect is smaller than reported earlier either from theory or observations, and ranges between 2 and 4% at the equatorial latitudes up to about 5% over the middle and high latitudes, including the noise term, and lasting for a period of months after the eruption. These deficiencies are also larger than the anticipated error caused by the aerosol-contaminated radiances, as reported by other scientists. The present results, although not precluding a transient volcanic component following large volcanic eruptions in the ozone records, do show, however, that our understanding of the physical mechanisms involved is probably still incomplete.
Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey
1994-01-01
Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.
How robust is the Holton-Tan relationship?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braesicke, Peter; Kerzenmacher, Tobias
2017-04-01
The Holton-Tan relationship explains a possible link between tropical and extratropical variability (foremost in the northern hemisphere). The idea can be rationalised using simple linear wave theory. The quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical lower stratosphere can be regarded as a kind of switch that influences the propagation of planetary waves. In a westerly phase of the QBO planetary waves in the stratosphere can propagate more equatorward and the polar vortex remains strong and undisturbed. In an easterly phase of the QBO the propagation is more poleward and the polar vortex is weaker and more disturbed. However, the robustness of this relationship depends on the precise definition of the QBO phase and the criteria used to define the polar vortex strength. Here, we will revisit the basic Holton-Tan relationship and will explore how other factors (including the state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation) modify the relationship. Using reanalysis data and idealised model experiments a possible range for robust manifestations of the Holton-Tan relationship is determined, thus providing an improved framework for a better understanding of teleconnections between tropical and polar latitudes.
A 320-year AMM+SOI Index Reconstruction from Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chenoweth, M.; Divine, D.
2010-12-01
Trends in the frequency of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, including major hurricanes, are dominated by those originating in the deep tropics. In addition, these tropical cyclones are stronger when making landfall and their total power dissipation is higher than storms forming elsewhere in the Atlantic basin. Both the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the leading modes of coupled air-sea interaction in the Atlantic and Pacific, respectively, and have well-established relationships with Atlantic hurricane variability. Here we use a 320-year record of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles region of the North Atlantic from historical manuscript and newspaper records to reconstruct a normalized seasonal (July-October) index combining the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and AMM employing both the modern analog technique and back-propagation artificial neural networks. Our results indicate that the AMM+SOI index since 1690 shows no long-term trend but is dominated by both short-term (<10 years) and long-term (quasi-decadal to bi-decadal) variations. The decadal-scale variation is consistent with both instrumental and proxy records elsewhere from the global tropics. Distinct periods of high and low index values, corresponding to high and low tropical cyclone frequency, are regularly-appearing features in the record and provides further evidence that natural decadal -scale variability in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency must be accounted for when determining trends in records and attribution of climate change.
Resurgence of oscillation in coupled oscillators under delayed cyclic interaction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bera, Bidesh K.; Majhi, Soumen; Ghosh, Dibakar
2017-07-01
This paper investigates the emergence of amplitude death and revival of oscillations from the suppression states in a system of coupled dynamical units interacting through delayed cyclic mode. In order to resurrect the oscillation from amplitude death state, we introduce asymmetry and feedback parameter in the cyclic coupling forms as a result of which the death region shrinks due to higher asymmetry and lower feedback parameter values for coupled oscillatory systems. Some analytical conditions are derived for amplitude death and revival of oscillations in two coupled limit cycle oscillators and corresponding numerical simulations confirm the obtained theoretical results. We also report that the death state and revival of oscillations from quenched state are possible in the network of identical coupled oscillators. The proposed mechanism has also been examined using chaotic Lorenz oscillator.
Control of Oscillation Patterns in a Symmetric Coupled Biological Oscillator System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takamatsu, Atsuko; Tanaka, Reiko; Yamamoto, Takatoki; Fujii, Teruo
2003-08-01
A chain of three-oscillator system was constructed with living biological oscillators of phasmodial slime mold, Physarum polycehalum and the oscillation patterns were analyzed by the symmetric Hopf bifurcation theory using group theory. Multi-stability of oscillation patterns was observed, even when the coupling strength was fixed. This suggests that the coupling strength is not an effective parameter to obtain a desired oscillation pattern among the multiple patterns. Here we propose a method to control oscillation patterns using resonance to external stimulus and demonstrate pattern switching induced by frequency resonance given to only one of oscillators in the system.
Characteristics of southern California atmospheric rivers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harris, Sarah M.; Carvalho, Leila M. V.
2018-05-01
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are channels of high water vapor flux that transport moisture from low to higher latitudes on synoptic timescales. In areas of topographical variability, ARs may lead to high-intensity precipitation due to orographic forcing. ARs landfalling along North America's west coast are linked to extreme events including those leading to flooding and landslides. In southern California (SCA), proper AR forecasting is important for regional water resources as well as hazard mitigation and as the area's annual precipitation totals occur from relatively few storms per season, any changes to storm frequency and/or intensity may have dramatic consequences. Yet, as most regional AR studies focus on the Pacific Northwest, there is little information about SCA ARs. We develop an algorithm to identify ARs landfalling on North America's west coast between 1979 and 2013 within total precipitable water reanalysis fields. ARs are then categorized according to landfall region. To determine and differentiate the characteristics and spatial distributions of ARs affecting these areas, we examine lag composites of various atmospheric variables for each landfall region. SCA ARs differ from ARs landfalling farther north in the days prior to landfall with the position and amplitude of a trough offshore from the Asian continent and ridge over Alaska, as well as the displacement and eastward extension of the jet core that potentially guides AR moisture southwards. The relationships between AR landfalls and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA) are also investigated.
North Pacific Decadal Variability in the GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.
2013-01-01
This study examines the mechanisms of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the GEOS-5 general circulation model. The model simulates a realistic PDO pattern that is resolved as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of winter sea surface temperature (SST). The simulated PDO is primarily forced by Aleutian low through Ekman transport and surface fluxes, and shows a red spectrum without any preferred periodicity. This differs from the observations, which indicate a greater role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing, and likely reflects the too short time scale of the simulated ENSO. The geostrophic transport in response to the Aleutian low is limited to the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, and is unlikely the main controlling factor in this model, although it reinforces the Ekman-induced SST anomalies. The delay between the Aleutian low and the PDO is relatively short (1 year) suggesting that the fast Ekman response (rather than Rossby wave propagation) sets the SST pattern immediately following an Aleutian low fluctuation. The atmospheric feedback (response to the SST) is only about 25 of the forcing and never evolves into an Aleutian low completely, instead projecting onto the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a meridional dipole in sea level pressure (SLP). The lack of preferred periodicity and weak atmospheric response bothindicate a coupled oscillation is an unlikely mechanism for the PDO in this model. In agreement with recent studies, the NPO is correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), which is another leading EOF of the North Pacific SST. A possible connection between the PDO and the NPGO is discussed.
Sediment fluxes from California Coastal Rivers: the influences of climate, geology, and topography
Andrews, E.D.; Antweiler, Ronald C.
2012-01-01
The influences of geologic and climatic factors on erosion and sedimentation processes in rivers draining the western flank of the California Coast Range are assessed. Annual suspended, bedload, and total sediment fluxes were determined for 16 river basins that have hydrologic records covering all or most of the period from 1950 to 2006 and have been relatively unaffected by flow storage, regulation, and depletion, which alter the downstream movement of water and sediment. The occurrence of relatively large annual sediment fluxes are strongly influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The frequency of relatively large annual sediment fluxes decreases from north to south during La Nina phases and increases from north to south during El Nino phases. The influence of ENSO is modulated over a period of decades by the PDO, such that relatively large annual sediment fluxes are more frequent during a La Nina phase in conjunction with a cool PDO and during an El Nino phase in conjunction with a warm PDO. Values of mean annual sediment flux, , were regressed against basin and climatic characteristics. Basin area, bedrock erodibility, basin relief, and precipitation explain 87% of the variation in from the 16 river basins. Bedrock erodibility is the most significant characteristic influencing . Basin relief is a superior predictor of compared with basin slope. is nearly proportional to basin area and increases with increasing precipitation. For a given percentage change, basin relief has a 2.3-fold greater effect on than a similar change in precipitation. The estimated natural from all California coastal rivers for the period 1950–2006 would have been approximately 85 million tons without flow storage, regulation, and depletion; the actual has been approximately 50 million tons, because of the effects of flow storage, regulation, and depletion.
Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage
Biastoch, Arne; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Morrison, Adele K.; van Sebille, Erik; Weijer, Wilbert; Griffies, Stephen M.
2015-01-01
The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, ‘Agulhas leakage', forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870–2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. This is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic. PMID:26656850
Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage
Biastoch, Arne; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Morrison, Adele K.; ...
2015-12-10
The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, ‘Agulhas leakage’, forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870–2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. Lastly, this is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic.
Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Bousquet, Philippe; Li, Shiqin; Chang, Jie; Fang, Xiuqin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Chen, Huai; Liu, Shirong; Lin, Guanghui; Gong, Peng; Wang, Meng; Wang, Han; Xiang, Wenhua; Chen, Jing
2017-01-01
Methane (CH4) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process-based model of global wetland CH4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8-month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.
Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Bousquet, Philippe; Li, Shiqin; Chang, Jie; Fang, Xiuqin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Chen, Huai; Liu, Shirong; Lin, Guanghui; Gong, Peng; Wang, Meng; Wang, Han; Xiang, Wenhua; Chen, Jing
2017-11-01
Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%-80% of global natural wetland CH 4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH 4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH 4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models' projections. We use a process-based model of global wetland CH 4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH 4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH 4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8-month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH 4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH 4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH 4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH 4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Chemical oscillator as a generalized Rayleigh oscillator.
Ghosh, Shyamolina; Ray, Deb Shankar
2013-10-28
We derive the conditions under which a set of arbitrary two dimensional autonomous kinetic equations can be reduced to the form of a generalized Rayleigh oscillator which admits of limit cycle solution. This is based on a linear transformation of field variables which can be found by inspection of the kinetic equations. We illustrate the scheme with the help of several chemical and bio-chemical oscillator models to show how they can be cast as a generalized Rayleigh oscillator.
Is there a quasi-biennial oscillation in tropical deep convection?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Collimore, Christopher C.; Hitchman, Matthew H.; Martin, David W.
We investigate the possibility that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) modulates deep convection in the tropics. Interannual variations of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the tropics during 1975-87 are compared with stratospheric zonal winds at Singapore (a measure of the QBO), and with the Tahiti-Darwin sea level pressure difference (the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI). A monthly time series of anomalous OLR was constructed for regions of consistently low OLR, thus targeting areas of chronic deep convection. This “chronic cold” index and the SOI correlate at -0.6 for zero lag. The “chronic cold” index correlates with 30 hPa Singapore winds at +0.3 and with 50 hPa-70 hPa wind differences at +0.4, both near zero lag. These results are not inconsistent with the hypothesis that deep convection may be enhanced in chronically cold areas when QBO westward shear exists in the lower stratosphere, and diminished during eastward shear.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedro, J. B.; Martin, T.; Steig, E. J.; Jochum, M.; Park, W.; Rasmussen, S.
2015-12-01
Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) are centennial-to-millennial scale warming events observed in Antarctic ice core records from the last glacial period and deglaciation. Mounting evidence links AIM events to parallel variations in atmospheric CO2, Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures and Antarctic Bottom Water production. According to the prevailing view, AIM events are forced from the North Atlantic by melt-water discharge from ice sheets suppressing the production of North Atlantic Deep Water and associated northward heat transport in the Atlantic. However observations and model studies increasingly suggest that melt-water fluxes have the wrong timing to be invoked as such a trigger. Here, drawing on results form the Kiel Climate Model, we present an alternative hypothesis in which AIM events are forced via internal oscillations in SO deep-convection. The quasi-periodic timescale of deep-convection events is set by heat (buoyancy) accumulation at SO intermediate depths and stochastic variability in sea ice conditions and freshening at the surface. Massive heat release from the SO convective zone drives Antarctic and large-scale southern hemisphere warming via a two-stage process involving changes in the location of Southern Ocean fronts, in the strength and intensity of the Westerlies and in meridional ocean and atmospheric heat flux anomalies. The potential for AIM events to be driven by internal Southern Ocean processes and the identification of time-lags internal to the southern high latitudes challenges conventional views on the North Atlantic as the pacemaker of millennial-scale climate variability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Dawei; Ding, Xiaoli; Zhou, Yonghong; Chen, Yongqi
2003-03-01
Time series of the length of day characterizing the rate of Earth rotation, the atmospheric angular momentum and the Southern Oscillation Index from 1962 to 2000 are used to reexamine the relationships between the ENSO events and the changes in the length of day, as well as the global atmospheric angular momentum. Particular attention is given to the different effects of the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 ENSO events on the variations of Earth rotation. The combined effects of multiscale atmospheric oscillations (seasonal, quasi-biennial and ENSO time scales) on the anomalous variations of the interannual rates of Earth rotation are revealed in this paper by studying the wavelet spectra of the data series.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lim, Young-Kwon; Kovach, Robin M.; Pawson, Steven; Vernieres, Guillaume
2017-01-01
The 2015-2016 El Nino is analyzed using atmospheric/oceanic analysis produced using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation systems. As well as describing the structure of the event, a theme of the work is to compare and contrast it with two other strong El Ninos, in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. These three El Nino events are included in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and in the more recent MERRA-2 reanalyses. MERRA-2 allows a comparison of fields derived from the underlying GEOS model, facilitating a more detailed comparison of physical forcing mechanisms in the El Nino events. Various atmospheric/oceanic structures indicate that the 2015/2016 El Nino maximized in the Nino3.4 region, with the large region of warming over most of the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western tropical Pacific are found to be less dry in boreal winter, compared to the earlier two strong events. While the 2015/2016 El Nino had an earlier occurrence of the equatorial Pacific warming and was the strongest event on record in the central Pacific, the 1997/1998 event exhibited a more rapid growth due to stronger westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation during spring, making it the strongest El Nino in the eastern Pacific. Compared to 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, the 2015/2016 event has a shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific with a weaker zonal contrast of sub-surface water temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. While the three major ENSO events have similarities, each are unique when looking at the atmosphere and ocean surface and sub-surface.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.
2017-01-01
Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification
Nature's Autonomous Oscillators
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mayr, H. G.; Yee, J.-H.; Mayr, M.; Schnetzler, R.
2012-01-01
Nonlinearity is required to produce autonomous oscillations without external time dependent source, and an example is the pendulum clock. The escapement mechanism of the clock imparts an impulse for each swing direction, which keeps the pendulum oscillating at the resonance frequency. Among nature's observed autonomous oscillators, examples are the quasi-biennial oscillation and bimonthly oscillation of the Earth atmosphere, and the 22-year solar oscillation. The oscillations have been simulated in numerical models without external time dependent source, and in Section 2 we summarize the results. Specifically, we shall discuss the nonlinearities that are involved in generating the oscillations, and the processes that produce the periodicities. In biology, insects have flight muscles, which function autonomously with wing frequencies that far exceed the animals' neural capacity; Stretch-activation of muscle contraction is the mechanism that produces the high frequency oscillation of insect flight, discussed in Section 3. The same mechanism is also invoked to explain the functioning of the cardiac muscle. In Section 4, we present a tutorial review of the cardio-vascular system, heart anatomy, and muscle cell physiology, leading up to Starling's Law of the Heart, which supports our notion that the human heart is also a nonlinear oscillator. In Section 5, we offer a broad perspective of the tenuous links between the fluid dynamical oscillators and the human heart physiology.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, W. P.; Thakur, B.; Kalra, A.; Lamb, K. W.; Fayne, J.; Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.
2017-12-01
With the recent increase in global mean temperature Western US has undergone significant decline in snowpack which is the primary source of fresh water for the region. Studies suggests the decline in snowpack also being coupled with different El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. The study includes 1 March, 1 April and 1 May Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) data of 56 years period (1961-2016) for the estimation of long term changes. The current study also estimates monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) variations during different ENSO phases. Mann-Kendall test was utilized for trend detection while the step was evaluated with the Pettitt's test. Kolmogorov - Smirnov test was also utilized to evaluate the differences in the SWE data distribution during different ENSO phases. The results indicated both decreasing trends and decreasing shifts in majority of the SWE stations. The decline in SWE varied with the ENSO phases and also varied spatially following the geography of the region. KS tests suggested northern regions of Western US having variations in cumulative distribution function during El Niño and non- El Niño years as compared to other regions suggesting the northern regions being more impacted by ENSO phases. This analysis can bring insights into the spatiotemporal SWE variations and lead to the better reliability on snowpack for water management issues.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yan, Xiao-Hal
2003-01-01
This is a one-year cost extension of previous grant but carrying a new award number for the administrative purpose. Supported by this one-year extension, the following research has continued and obtained significant results. 20 papers have been published (9) or submitted (11) to scientific journals in this one-year period. A brief summary of scientific results on: 1. A new method for estimation of the sensible heat flux using satellite vector winds, 2. Pacific warm pool excitation, earth rotation and El Nino Southern Oscillations, 3. A new study of the Mediterranean outflow and Meddies at 400-meter isopycnal surface using multi-sensor data, 4. Response of the coastal ocean to extremely high wind, and 5. Role of wind on the estimation of heat flux using satellite data, are provided below as examples of our many research results conducted in the last year,
The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernandes, Katia De Avila
Oscillation. During El Nino (La Nina) a strong (weak) subtropical jet stream over South America tends to prevent transient systems from moving to southern Amazon, resulting in decreased (increased) CAI days during SON. The second mode of co-variability shows an anomalously warm western Indian Ocean also related to strong subtropical jet stream, except the jet is positioned farther north in South America, which along with the absence of a well defined subpolar jet stream, favors the northward displacement of transient waves into central South America, but show little response in southern Amazon. The CAI days reconstructed from the first and second modes do not present any significant trend in southern Amazon. CAI days reconstructed from the third mode of co-variability on the other hand, reproduces the SON observed trend in almost its entirety. The third mode of co-variability describes negative (positive) anomalies in CAI days associated with cold (warm) SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, anomalous wavetrain in the Southern Hemisphere and Walker Cell displacement that are unfavorable (favorable) to the incursion of CAI into southern Amazon. The temporal evolution of this mode correlates negatively with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, suggesting that the recent gradual shift in PDO polarity reflected on the interannual response of Southern Pacific atmospheric patterns, hence on the behavior of transients propagation. The negative PDO index and its related atmospheric patterns are in agreement with the reduced observed CAI days, which also related to a delayed wet season onset in the southern Amazon.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yung, Y. L.
2008-01-01
A principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) total column ozone following the method established for analyzing the data in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in a companion paper. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the SH is characterized by four main modes, which account for 75% of the total variance. The first two leading modes are approximately zonally symmetric and relate to the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The third and fourth modes exhibit wavenumber-1 structures. Contrary to the Northern Hemisphere, the third and fourth are nor related to stationary waves. Similar results obtained for the 30 100-hPa geopotential thickness.The decreasing O3 trend in the SH is captured in the first mode. The largest trend is at the South Pole, with value similar to-2 Dobson Units (DU)/yr. Both the spatial pattern and trends in the column ozone are captured by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistry-climate model (GEOS-CCM) in the SH.
Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neelin, J.; Su, H.
2004-05-01
Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.
Quantifying Observed Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sura, P.; Stefanova, L. B.; Griffin, M.; Worsnop, R.
2011-12-01
There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are related to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. In particular, the statistics of regional daily temperature extremes are of practical interest for the agricultural community and energy suppliers. This is notably true for the Southeastern United States where winter hard freezes are a relatively rare and potentially catastrophic event. Here we use a long record of quality-controlled observations collected from 272 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observing Network (COOP) stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina to provide a detailed climatology of temperature extremes in the Southeastern United States. We employ two complementary approaches. First, we analyze the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the non-Gaussian (i.e. higher order) statistics of wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures. We find a significant and spatially varying impact of ENSO and AO on the non-Gaussian statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain. Second, the extremes of the temperature distributions are studied by calculating the 1st and 99th percentiles, and then analyzing the number of days with record low/high temperatures per season. This analysis of daily temperature extremes reveals oscillating, multi-decadal patterns with spatially varying centers of action.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Cook, Edward R.; Fenwick, Pavla; Thomas, Zoë; Helle, Gerhard; Jones, Richard; Clement, Amy; Hogg, Alan; Southon, John; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard; Muscheler, Raimund; Corrège, Thierry; Hua, Quan
2016-12-01
The warming trend at the end of the last glacial was disrupted by rapid cooling clearly identified in Greenland (Greenland Stadial 1 or GS-1) and Europe (Younger Dryas Stadial or YD). This reversal to glacial-like conditions is one of the best known examples of abrupt change but the exact timing and global spatial extent remain uncertain. Whilst the wider Atlantic region has a network of high-resolution proxy records spanning GS-1, the Pacific Ocean suffers from a scarcity of sub-decadally resolved sequences. Here we report the results from an investigation into a tree-ring chronology from northern New Zealand aimed at addressing the paucity of data. The conifer tree species kauri (Agathis australis) is known from contemporary studies to be sensitive to regional climate changes. An analysis of a 'historic' 452-year kauri chronology confirms a tropical-Pacific teleconnection via the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We then focus our study on a 1010-year sub-fossil kauri chronology that has been precisely dated by comprehensive radiocarbon dating and contains a striking ring-width downturn between ∼12,500 and 12,380 cal BP within GS-1. Wavelet analysis shows a marked increase in ENSO-like periodicities occurring after the downturn event. Comparison to low- and mid-latitude Pacific records suggests a coherency with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation change during this period. The driver(s) for this climate event remain unclear but may be related to solar changes that subsequently led to establishment and/or increased expression of ENSO across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific, seemingly independent of the Atlantic and polar regions.
Discoveries about Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Satellite and Soundings
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thompson, Anne M.
2004-01-01
We have been producing near-red time tropospheric ozone satellite maps from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) sensor since 1997. Maps for 1996-2000 for the operational Earth-Probe instrument are at:
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Blanco, J.; Thomas, A.; Strub, T.; Carr, M.
2000-01-01
The evolution of oceanographic conditions in the upwelling region off northern Chile (18(sup o) - 24(sup o)S) betweeen 1996 and 1998 (including 1997-1998 El Nino) is presented using hydrographic measurements acquired on quarterly cruises of the Chilean Fisheries Institute, sea-surface temperature (SST), sea level, and wind speeds from Arica (18.5(sup o)S), Iquique (20.5(sup o)S), and Antofagasta (23.5(sup o)S), and a time series of vertical temperature profiles off Iquique.
Creveling, R.
1957-12-17
S> A shock-excited quartz crystal oscillator is described. The circuit was specifically designed for application in micro-time measuring work to provide an oscillator which immediately goes into oscillation upon receipt of a trigger pulse and abruptly ceases oscillation when a second pulse is received. To achieve the instant action, the crystal has a prestressing voltage applied across it. A monostable multivibrator receives the on and off trigger pulses and discharges a pulse through the crystal to initiate or terminate oscillation instantly.
Reimer, Janet J; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben
2015-01-01
Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could
Reimer, Janet J.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J. Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben
2015-01-01
Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could
Mapping drought risk in Indonesia related to El-Niño hazard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Supari, Muharsyah, R.; Sopaheluwakan, A.
2016-05-01
This work is aimed to identify areas in the country that are at high propensity to the impact of global climate phenomenon i.e. El-Nino. An affected area is recognized when rainfall decreases up to below normal condition which frequently leads drought event. For this purpose, two packages of gridded rainfall data at monthly basis with 0.5 spatial resolutions for 1950 2010 period were used, e.g. GPCC Full Data Reanalysis V.6 (product of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and CRU TS3.22 (product of Climatic Research Unit). El-Nino years were labelled based on Oceanic Nino Index, ONI. We applied frequency analysis to quantify the chance of El-Nino impact. GPCC data was found more accurate in representing rainfall observation than CRU data based on correlation test against station data. The results indicate the strong spatial and temporal dependencies of El-Nino impact. During peak of rainy and first transitional season (DJF and MAM), the probability to be affected by El-Nino is mostly less than 20% over whole country In contrast, July-October are months where areas with high and very high risk were observed over many regions such as Southern part of Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua. Further investigation at province level found that the timing of El-Nino impact starts in June. These results are potential to improve national capacity in risk management related to weather-climate hazards.
Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.
1999-01-01
Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newcomer, M. E.; Gurdak, J. J.
2011-12-01
Groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments are highly vulnerable to increased human pressures and climate variability. Impervious surfaces, such as buildings, roads, and parking lots prevent infiltration, reduce recharge to underlying aquifers, and increase contaminants in surface runoff that often overflow sewage systems. To mitigate these effects, cities worldwide are adopting low impact design (LID) approaches that direct runoff into natural vegetated systems, such as rain gardens that reduce, filter, and slow stormwater runoff, and are hypothesized to increase infiltration and recharge rates to aquifers. The effects of LID on recharge rates and quality is unknown, particularly during intense precipitation events for cities along the Pacific coast in response to interannual variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using vadose zone monitoring sensors and instruments, I collected and monitored soil, hydraulic, and geochemical data to quantify the rates and quality of infiltration and recharge to the California Coastal aquifer system beneath a LID rain garden and traditional turf-lawn setting in San Francisco, CA. The data were used to calibrate a HYDRUS-3D model to simulate recharge rates under historical and future variability of ENSO. Understanding these processes has important implications for managing groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments.
Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.
2018-02-01
Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic
Glucose Oscillations Can Activate an Endogenous Oscillator in Pancreatic Islets
Mukhitov, Nikita; Roper, Michael G.; Bertram, Richard
2016-01-01
Pancreatic islets manage elevations in blood glucose level by secreting insulin into the bloodstream in a pulsatile manner. Pulsatile insulin secretion is governed by islet oscillations such as bursting electrical activity and periodic Ca2+ entry in β-cells. In this report, we demonstrate that although islet oscillations are lost by fixing a glucose stimulus at a high concentration, they may be recovered by subsequently converting the glucose stimulus to a sinusoidal wave. We predict with mathematical modeling that the sinusoidal glucose signal’s ability to recover islet oscillations depends on its amplitude and period, and we confirm our predictions by conducting experiments with islets using a microfluidics platform. Our results suggest a mechanism whereby oscillatory blood glucose levels recruit non-oscillating islets to enhance pulsatile insulin output from the pancreas. Our results also provide support for the main hypothesis of the Dual Oscillator Model, that a glycolytic oscillator endogenous to islet β-cells drives pulsatile insulin secretion. PMID:27788129
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Grottoli, A.; Adkins, J; Panero, W
2010-01-01
The isotopic and elemental composition of sclerosponge skeletons is used to reconstruct paleoceanographic records. Yet few studies have systematically examined the natural variability in sclerosponge skeletal {delta}{sup 18}O, growth, and Sr/Ca, and how that may influence the interpretation of sclerosponge proxy records. Here, we analyzed short records in seven specimens of Acanthocheatetes wellsi (high-Mg calcite, 21 mol% Mg) from Palau, four A. wellsi (high-Mg calcite, 21 mol% Mg) from Saipan, and three Astrosclera willeyana (aragonite) sclerosponges from Saipan, as well as one long record in an A. wellsi specimen from Palau spanning 1945-2001.5. In Saipan, species-specific and mineralogical effects appearmore » to have a negligible effect on sclerosponge {delta}{sup 18}O, facilitating the direct comparison of {delta}{sup 18}O records between species at a given location. At both sites, A. wellsi {delta}{sup 18}O and growth rates were sensitive to environmental conditions, but Sr/Ca was not sensitive to the same conditions. High-resolution {delta}{sup 18}O analyses confirmed this finding as both A. wellsi and A. willeyana deposited their skeleton in accordance with the trends in isotopic equilibrium with seawater, though with a 0.27{per_thousand} offset in the case of A. willeyana. In the high-Mg-calcite species A. wellsi, Mg may be interfering with Sr incorporation into the skeleton. On multidecadal timescales, A. wellsi sclerosponge {delta}{sup 18}O in Palau tracked the Southern Oscillation Index variability post-1977, but not pre-1977, coincident with the switch in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at {approx}1976. This suggests that water mass circulation in the region is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability during positive PDO phases, but not during negative ones.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.
2017-10-01
Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002-2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng
2018-03-01
The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.
Coupled opto-electronic oscillator
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yao, X. Steve (Inventor); Maleki, Lute (Inventor)
1999-01-01
A coupled opto-electronic oscillator that directly couples a laser oscillation with an electronic oscillation to simultaneously achieve a stable RF oscillation at a high frequency and ultra-short optical pulsation by mode locking with a high repetition rate and stability. Single-mode selection can be achieved even with a very long opto-electronic loop. A multimode laser can be used to pump the electronic oscillation, resulting in a high operation efficiency. The optical and the RF oscillations are correlated to each other.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants
Paxton, Kristina L.; Cohen, Emily B.; Paxton, Eben H.; Németh, Zoltan; Moore, Frank R.
2014-01-01
Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants over-wintering in
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.
2013-01-01
Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Duncan, B. N.; Diehl, t. L.
2008-01-01
We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Nino on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Nino-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of GO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative irrrportance of biomass burning and large scale transport: in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO . The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4-6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense, The dynamical component was 4-8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass taming was reduced to zero and the obsemed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2-3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burdean of CO increased by 8-12%.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric
1999-01-01
Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP
Tree-ring analysis of ancient baldcypress trees and subfossil wood
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stahle, David W.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Fye, Falko K.; Griffin, R. Daniel; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Stahle, Daniel K.; Edmondson, Jesse R.; Wolff, Kathryn P.
2012-02-01
Ancient baldcypress trees found in wetland and riverine environments have been used to develop a network of exactly dated annual ring-width chronologies extending from the southeastern United States, across Mexico, and into western Guatemala. These chronologies are sensitive to growing season precipitation in spite of frequently flooded site conditions, and have been used to reconstruct moisture levels the southeastern United States and Mexico for over 1000 years. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on the climate reconstructions derived from these baldcypress chronologies, especially in Mexico where some of the most extreme reconstructed droughts occurred during El Nino events. In the Southeast, the ENSO influence on climate and tree growth changes sign from spring to summer, and this change in dynamical forcing is recorded by sub-seasonal chronologies of earlywood and latewood width. Most existing baldcypress chronologies have been extended with tree-ring data from "subfossil" wood recovered from surface and submerged deposits. Well-preserved subfossil logs have also been recovered in quantity from buried deposits of great age, and may permit development of long continuously dated Holocene chronologies and discontinuous "floating" Pleistocene chronologies. The extensive subfossil baldcypress swamp discovered 6 m below the streets of Washington D.C. was overrun by a transgression of the Potomac estuary, possibly during the previous super interglacial (marine OIS 5e), and provides direct evidence for one potential impact of unmitigated anthropogenic warming and sea level rise.
An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
2011-01-01
Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.
Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Waugh, D. W.; Lang, C.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2012-01-01
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.
Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.
2014-01-01
We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.
Gitsevich, Aleksandr
2001-01-01
An oscillator includes an amplifier having an input and an output, and an impedance transformation network connected between the input of the amplifier and the output of the amplifier, wherein the impedance transformation network is configured to provide suitable positive feedback from the output of the amplifier to the input of the amplifier to initiate and sustain an oscillating condition, and wherein the impedance transformation network is configured to protect the input of the amplifier from a destructive feedback signal. One example of the oscillator is a single active element device capable of providing over 70 watts of power at over 70% efficiency. Various control circuits may be employed to match the driving frequency of the oscillator to a plurality of tuning states of the lamp.
Self-oscillation in spin torque oscillator stabilized by field-like torque
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Taniguchi, Tomohiro; Tsunegi, Sumito; Kubota, Hitoshi
2014-04-14
The effect of the field-like torque on the self-oscillation of the magnetization in spin torque oscillator with a perpendicularly magnetized free layer was studied theoretically. A stable self-oscillation at zero field is excited for negative β while the magnetization dynamics stops for β = 0 or β > 0, where β is the ratio between the spin torque and the field-like torque. The reason why only the negative β induces the self-oscillation was explained from the view point of the energy balance between the spin torque and the damping. The oscillation power and frequency for various β were also studied by numerical simulation.
Interdecadal variability in pan-Pacific and global SST, revisited
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tung, Ka-Kit; Chen, Xianyao; Zhou, Jiansong; Li, King-Fai
2018-05-01
Interest in the "Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)" in the global SST has surged recently on suggestions that the Pacific may be the source of prominent interdecadal variations observed in the global-mean surface temperature possibly through the mechanism of low-frequency modulation of the interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. IPO was defined by performing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of low-pass filtered SST. The low-pass filtering creates its unique set of mathematical problems—in particular, mode mixing—and has led to some questions, many unanswered. To understand what these EOFs are, we express them first in terms of the recently developed pairwise rotated EOFs of the unfiltered SST, which can largely separate the high and low frequency bands without resorting to filtering. As reported elsewhere, the leading rotated dynamical modes (after the global warming trend) of the unfiltered global SST are: ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). IPO is not among them. The leading principal component (PC) of the low-pass filtered global SST is usually defined as IPO and it is seen to comprise of ENSO, PDO and AMO in various proportions depending on the filter threshold. With decadal filtering, the contribution of the interannual ENSO is understandably negligible. The leading dynamical mode of the filtered global SST is mostly AMO, and therefore should not have been called the Interdecadal "Pacific" Oscillation. The leading dynamical mode of the filtered pan-Pacific SST is mostly PDO. This and other low-frequency variability that have the action center in the Pacific, from either the pan-Pacific or global SST, have near zero global mean.
Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen
2018-05-01
A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.
Analysis of the 1877-78 ENSO episode and comparison with 1982-83
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kiladis, G.N.; Diaz, H.F.
A comparison of the 1877-78 and 1982-83 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was made using monthly and seasonal values of sea surface temperature (SST) and station pressure in the tropics, sea level pressure (SLP) in North America and the North Atlantic, temperature in North America and precipitation in several key areas around the globe. SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, heavy rains in coastal Peru and extreme pressure anomalies across the Pacific and Indian Oceans during 1877-78 indicate an ENSO event of comparable magnitude to that during 1982-83. Both events were also associated with drought conditions in the Indonesianmore » region, India, South Africa, northeastern Brazil and Hawaii. Wintertime teleconnections in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were similar in terms of SLP from the North Pacific to Europe, resulting in significantly higher than normal temperatures over most of the US and extreme rains in California.« less
Trends and Variations of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux: Results from GSSTF2c Data Set
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gao, Si; Chiu, Long S.; Shie, Chung-Lin
2013-01-01
Trends and variations of Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) version 2c (GSSTF2c) latent heat flux (LHF) are examined. This version of LHF takes account of the correction in Earth incidence angle. The trend of global mean LHF for GSSTF2c is much reduced relative to GSSTF version 2b Set 1 and Set 2 for the same period 1988-2008. Temporal increase of GSSTF2c LHF in the two decades is 11.0%, in which 3.1%, 5.8%, and 2.1% are attributed to the increase in wind, the increase in sea surface saturated air humidity, and the decrease in near-surface air humidity, respectively. The first empirical orthogonal function of LHF is a conventional El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. However, the trends in LHF are independent of conventional ENSO phenomena. After removing ENSO signal, the pattern of LHF trends is primarily determined by the pattern of air-sea humidity difference trends.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, G. Louis; Rutan, David; Bess, T. Dale
1992-01-01
An atlas of monthly mean global contour maps of albedo and absorbed solar radiation is presented for 21 months from Nov. 1985 to Oct. 1987. These data were retrieved from measurements made by the shortwave wide-field-of-view radiometer of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) instrument aboard the Nimbus 7 spacecraft. Profiles of zonal mean albedos and absorbed solar radiation were tabulated. These geographical distributions are provided as a resource for researchers studying the radiation budget of the Earth. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation event of 1986-1987 is included in this data set. This atlas of albedo and absorbed solar radiation extends to 12 years the period covered by two similar atlases: NASA RP-1230 (Jul. 1975 - Oct. 1978) and NASA RP-1231 (Nov. 1978 - Oct. 1985). These three compilations complement the atlases of outgoing longwave radiation by Bess and Smith in NASA RP-1185, RP-1186, and RP-1261, which were also based on the Nimbus 6 and 7 ERB data.
Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra;
2017-01-01
Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yoon, Jin-Ho; Leung, Lai-Yung R.
This study assesses the relative influence of soil moisture memory and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal rainfall over the contiguous United States. Using observed precipitation, the NINO3.4 index and soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated by a land surface model for 61 years, analysis was performed using partial correlations to evaluate to what extent land surface and SST anomaly of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect seasonal precipitation over different regions and seasons. Results show that antecedent soil moisture is as important as concurrent ENSO condition in controlling rainfall anomalies over the U.S., but they generally dominatemore » in different seasons with SST providing more predictability during winter while soil moisture, through its linkages to evapotranspiration and snow water, has larger influence in spring and early summer. The proposed methodology is applicable to climate model outputs to evaluate the intensity of land-atmosphere coupling and its relative importance.« less
Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)
Markgraf, Vera; Baumgartner, T.R.; Bradbury, J.P.; Diaz, Henry F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Luckman, B.H.; Seltzer, G.O.; Swetnam, T.W.; Villalba, R.
2000-01-01
Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.
Micromagnetic study of auto-oscillation modes in spin-Hall nano-oscillators
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ulrichs, H., E-mail: henning.ulrichs@uni-muenster.de; Demidov, V. E.; Demokritov, S. O.
2014-01-27
We present a numerical study of magnetization dynamics in a recently introduced spin torque nano-oscillator, whose operational principle relies on the spin-Hall effect—spin-Hall nano-oscillators. Our numerical results show good agreement with the experimentally observed behaviors and provide detailed information about the features of the primary auto-oscillation mode observed in the experiments. They also clarify the physical nature of the secondary auto-oscillation mode, which was experimentally observed under certain conditions only.
Generalizing the transition from amplitude to oscillation death in coupled oscillators.
Zou, Wei; Senthilkumar, D V; Koseska, Aneta; Kurths, Jürgen
2013-11-01
Amplitude death (AD) and oscillation death (OD) are two structurally different oscillation quenching types in coupled nonlinear oscillators. The transition from AD to OD has been recently realized due to the interplay between heterogeneity and coupling strength [A. Koseska et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 024103 (2013)]. We identify here the transition from AD to OD in nonlinear oscillators with couplings of distinct natures. It is demonstrated that the presence of time delay in the coupling cannot induce such a transition in identical oscillators, but it can indeed facilitate its occurrence with a low degree of heterogeneity. Moreover, it is further shown that the AD to OD transition is reliably observed in identical oscillators with dynamic and conjugate couplings. The coexistence of AD and OD and rich stable OD configurations after the transition are revealed, which are of great significance for potential applications in physics, biology, and control studies.
Direct heuristic dynamic programming for damping oscillations in a large power system.
Lu, Chao; Si, Jennie; Xie, Xiaorong
2008-08-01
This paper applies a neural-network-based approximate dynamic programming method, namely, the direct heuristic dynamic programming (direct HDP), to a large power system stability control problem. The direct HDP is a learning- and approximation-based approach to addressing nonlinear coordinated control under uncertainty. One of the major design parameters, the controller learning objective function, is formulated to directly account for network-wide low-frequency oscillation with the presence of nonlinearity, uncertainty, and coupling effect among system components. Results include a novel learning control structure based on the direct HDP with applications to two power system problems. The first case involves static var compensator supplementary damping control, which is used to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the learning control performance. The second case aims at addressing a difficult complex system challenge by providing a new solution to a large interconnected power network oscillation damping control problem that frequently occurs in the China Southern Power Grid.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jarvis, C.; Barlow, E.; Darbyshire, R.; Eckard, R.; Goodwin, I.
2016-12-01
Annual grapevine growth and development are intimately linked with growing season weather conditions. Shifts in circulation patterns resulting from atmospheric teleconnections to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events can alter seasonal weather across Australia. Both ENSO and IOD events tend to peak in austral spring, when vine and berry development is especially critical and susceptible to damage. To investigate the impacts of ENSO and IOD events on the Australian wine grape growing sector, historical gridded climate data and annual vineyard grape maturity data from a variety of wine growing regions was collected and analysed. The greatest impacts on grape maturity were found when La Niña and IOD positive events occurred in tandem. During these events, significantly dry and hot conditions persist throughout the wine grape growing season, suggesting that the IOD overrides the ENSO signal. These conditions lead to a rapid, compressed growing season, which can cause logistical complications during harvest and impact grape and wine quality. Warming of equatorial SSTs in the Indian Ocean are likely to enhance the amplitude of IOD positive events, which has serious implications for wine grape production in Australia, highlighting the importance of this research.
Seasonal Variability of the 40-50 Day Oscillation in Wind and Rainfall in the Tropics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hartmann, Dennis L.; Gross, Jack R.
1988-10-01
Time spectral analysis is performed on long records of wind and precipitation from stations in the tropical Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean are. The spectra are done separately for winter and summer half-years. Statistically significant spectral peaks in the 40-50 day period range show strong seasonal variability. The 40-50 day peaks in the 200 mb zonal wind spectra are stronger and more prevalent during the Northern Hemisphere winter half-year. Spectral peaks in the 850 mb wind show a preference for summer in the Northern Hemisphere.Precipitation spectra show significant 40-50 day peaks at selected locations in the Indonesian region and along the South Pacific convergence zone in the central Pacific during Southern Hemisphere summer. These oscillations in precipitation are coherent with nearby zonal wind oscillations. No significant oscillations in precipitation were found for stations significantly north of the equator during either half-year. In particular, no significant peaks in precipitation spectra were found for composites of stations on the Indian Peninsula during summer, where it has been proposed that the 40-50 day oscillation modulates monsoon precipitation.It is concluded that the 40-50 day oscillation is sustained by interactions between the large-scale flow and convective-scale processes and that these interactions take place in areas where intensely convective regions aye near the equator. The wind oscillation occupies a larger area, particularly at upper tropospheric levels, principally by horizontal wave propagation away from the excitation regions. Since the oscillation does not appear to be forced over India, it is conjectured that the seasonal variation in the intensity of the oscillation is attributable, in part, to the fact that the tropical convection is drawn away from the equator by the Indian summer monsoon. When the convection is drawn off the equator, the efficiency of the interaction with equatorially trapped modes declines, and hence the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quinn, J. M.; Leybourne, B. A.
2010-12-01
Jerks are thought to be the result of torques applied at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) caused by either of two possible processes, working together or separately: 1) Electromagnetic Induction and 2) Mechanical Slippage. In the first case, it is thought that electromagnetic energy slowly builds-up at the CMB, reaches some critical level, and is then suddenly released, causing a geomagneticly induced torque at the CMB due to the differential electrical conductivity between the lower mantle and the surface of the outer core. The second case is driven by stress and strain increases that buildup mechanical potential energy, which is released when a critical level is reached, thereby generating a torque at the CMB. Generally, a trigger is required to start the Jerk process in motion. In the electromagnetic case, it is suggested that energy from the Sun may supply the requisite energy buildup that is subsequently released by a magnetic storm trigger, for instance. In the case of mechanical slippage, bari-center motion among the Earth, Moon, and Sun, as well as tidal forces and mass redistributions through Earth's wobbles combine to provide the accumulated stress/strain buildup and subsequent trigger. The resulting fluid flow changes at the CMB result in geomagnetic field changes and Joule heating throughout the solid Earth, its oceans, and atmosphere. It is shown that the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), which is measured at Earth's surface, correlates with changes in the geomagnetic non-dipole moment, and thus with core fluid motions. This links Global Warming and weather with core processes, important examples being the 1930's Dust Bowl Era and the 1947 Impulse. The CMB torque also affects Earth's angular momentum. But it appears that magnetic storms can as well. As a consequence, the Jet Stream, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the Global Oscillation System (i.e., El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decade Oscillation, etc.) are
The Effect of Atmospheric Diabatic Heating on Low-Frequency Oscillations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yen, Ming-Cheng
1990-01-01
oscillation is attributable to the latent heat released by cumulus convection. The synoptic relationship among (~ {chi}, nabla~ {chi}) (200 mb), OLR and ~{psi} (200 mb) makes clear the synchronization of the 30-60 day oscillation of the tropical easterly jet and the Somali jet. The significant outcome of the psi-budget analysis demonstrates that the 30-60 day oscillation of the southern part of the tropical easterly jet is a response of the upper-level monsoon circulation to the eastward propagating ~{chi} mode.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Covert, J. M.; Hellstrom, R. A.
2015-12-01
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the primary modulator of inter-annual weather patterns in the Andes, but its impact in the Cordillera Blanca (White Range) is not fully understood. In 2004 an autonomous sensor network (ASN) was installed in the Llanganuco Valley in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru consisting of two automatic weather stations (AWS) located at the base and upper ridge of the valley connected by four air temperature/humidity micro-loggers at equal elevation intervals. The ASN permits high resolution evaluations of the micro-scale meteorology within the valley. Twenty-four hour composites and monthly averages of wind, solar insolation, air temperature profiles, and precipitation obtained from the ASN were analyzed for the historical wet and dry seasons between the years of 2005 and 2015. The evidence suggests that teleconnections exist between eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and meteorological forcing within the Valley. Comparisons between the two AWS units reveal similar ENSO impacts during the wet season that are not replicated in the dry season. We found that warm and cold ENSO create anomalies that appear unique to this region of the outer Tropics. Warm ENSO phases promote wetter than normal dry seasons and dryer than normal wet seasons and visa versa for cold phases of ENSO. Air temperature is strongly positively correlated to warm ENSO phases during the wet season and depends on elevation during the dry season. Insolation is negatively correlated to warm ENSO phases at higher elevations with weak positive correlation at lower elevations. We attribute observed seasonality, in part, to interactions between channeling of synoptic flow and thermally driven winds. Although the sporadic availability of data prevents definitive conclusions at this time, recent improvements in the ASN infrastructure will facilitate deeper understanding of ENSO impacts on meteorological forcing within pro-glacial valleys of the
Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L.; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H.
2013-01-01
The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth’s system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980–2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher ∆17O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and ∆17O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and ∆17O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that ∆17O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations. PMID:23447567
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fuller, D. O.; Troyo, A.; Beier, J. C.
2009-01-01
Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.
Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.
2016-12-01
Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.
Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, J.; Baker, D.; Braun, S.; Chou, M.-D.; Ferrier, B.; Johnson, D.; Khain, A.; Lang, S.; Lynn, B.
2001-01-01
The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pagano, Thomas S.; Olsen, Edward T.; Nguyen, Hai
2012-01-01
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua Spacecraft, launched on May 4, 2002 into a near polar sun-synchronous orbit. AIRS has 2378 infrared channels ranging from 3.7 ?m to 15.4 ?m and a 13.5 km footprint at nadir. AIRS, in conjunction with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), produces temperature profiles with 1K/km accuracy on a global scale, as well as water vapor profiles and trace gas amounts for CO2, CO, SO2, O3 and CH4. AIRS CO2 climatologies have been shown to be useful for identifying anomalies associated with geophysical events such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation or Madden-Julian oscillation. In this study, monthly representations of mid-tropospheric CO2 are constructed from 10 years of AIRS Version 5 monthly Level 3 data. We compare the AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2 representations to ground-based measurements from the Scripps and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Laboratory (NOAA CMDL) ground networks to better understand the phase lag of the CO2 seasonal cycle between the surface and middle troposphere. Results show only a small phase lag in the tropics that grows to approximately two months in the northern latitudes.
Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.
2017-12-01
Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salinas, Cornelius Csar Jude H.; Chang, Loren C.
2018-06-01
This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15-35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Demir, Alper
2005-08-01
Oscillators are key components of many kinds of systems, particularly electronic and opto-electronic systems. Undesired perturbations, i.e. noise, that exist in practical systems adversely affect the spectral and timing properties of the signals generated by oscillators resulting in phase noise and timing jitter. These are key performance limiting factors, being major contributors to bit-error-rate (BER) of RF and optical communication systems, and creating synchronization problems in clocked and sampled-data electronic systems. In noise analysis for oscillators, the key is figuring out how the various disturbances and noise sources in the oscillator end up as phase fluctuations. In doing so, one first computes transfer functions from the noise sources to the oscillator phase, or the sensitivity of the oscillator phase to these noise sources. In this paper, we first provide a discussion explaining the origins and the proper definition of this transfer or sensitivity function, followed by a critical review of the various numerical techniques for its computation that have been proposed by various authors over the past fifteen years.
Analysis of PM2.5 in Córdoba, Argentina under the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lanzaco, Bethania L.; Olcese, Luis E.; Querol, Xavier; Toselli, Beatriz M.
2017-12-01
In this work, PM2.5 samples were collected in the winter-spring months of 2014-2016 at an urban site in Córdoba. Córdoba is the second largest city in Argentina and is an important industrial and touristic center. The collected samples were individually analyzed for chemical composition using different techniques. The soluble inorganic ions and carbonaceous particles were determined from bulk aerosol samples for the first time in the city. The mass concentrations of PM2.5, organic carbon, elemental carbon, inorganic ions and metals were determined according to the mass balance. The dominant mass components were organic matter and elemental carbon (54.8%), mineral dust (6.1%), secondary inorganic aerosols (3.0%), and salt (1.2%). A principal component analysis was applied to the samples and resulted in five major factors that explained 79% of the variance in PM2.5. These factors represented combustion, industrial sources, soil dust, secondary inorganic aerosol, and salt, and each explained between 11% and 20% of the variance. A comparison with the results from a previous campaign (2010-2011) revealed appreciable changes in the PM2.5 chemical composition. These changes were attributed to the two extreme meteorological conditions that prevailed in the region. The years 2014-2016 were largely dominated by the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which leads to humid and cold weather in the Córdoba region, while the samples from 2010 to 2011 were collected during the dry and hot years resulting from the La Niña regime.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liang, Ping; Lin, Hai
2018-02-01
A useful sub-seasonal forecast is of great societal and economical value in the highly populated East Asian region, especially during boreal summer when frequent extreme events such as heat waves and persistent heavy rainfalls occur. Despite recent interest and development in sub-seasonal prediction, it is still unclear how skillful dynamical forecasting systems are in East Asia beyond 2 weeks. In this study we evaluate the sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).Results show that the climatological intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO) of East Asian summer monsoonis reasonably well captured. Statistically significant forecast skill of 2-meter air temperature (T2m) is achieved for all lead times up to week 4 (days 26-32) over East China and Northeast Asia, which is consistent with the skill in 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500). Significant forecast skill of precipitation, however, is limited to the week of days 5-11. Possible sources of predictability on the sub-seasonal time scale are analyzed. The weekly mean T2m anomaly over East China is found to be linked to an eastward propagating extratropical Rossby wave from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also likely to influence the forecast skill of T2m at the sub-seasonal timescale over East Asia.