Development of a nomogram incorporating serum C-reactive protein level to predict overall survival of patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma and its evaluation by decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Ishioka, J; Saito, K; Sakura, M; Yokoyama, M; Matsuoka, Y; Numao, N; Koga, F; Masuda, H; Fujii, Y; Kawakami, S; Kihara, K

2012-09-25

The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic impact of C-reactive protein (CRP) on patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma and to develop a novel nomogram predicting survival. A total of 223 consecutive patients were treated at Tokyo Medical and Dental Hospital. A nomogram incorporating V was developed based on the result of a Cox proportional hazards model. Its efficacy and clinical usefulness was evaluated by concordance index (c-index) and decision curve analysis. Of the 223 patients, 184 (83%) died of cancer. Median follow-up periods of patients who died and those who remained alive were 5 and 11 months, respectively. We developed a novel nomogram incorporating Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, presence of visceral metastasis, haemoglobin and age. The c-index of the nomogram predicting survival probability 6 and 12 months after diagnosis was 0.788 and 0.765, respectively. Decision curve analyses revealed that the novel nomogram incorporating CRP had a superior net benefit than that without CRP for most of the examined probabilities. We demonstrated the prognostic impact of CRP that improved the predictive accuracy of a nomogram for survival probability in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma.

Prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization following curative resection

PubMed Central

Jing, Chu-Yu; Fu, Yi-Peng; Zheng, Su-Su; Yi, Yong; Shen, Hu-Jia; Huang, Jin-Long; Xu, Xin; Lin, Jia-Jia; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Ren, Zheng-Gang; Qiu, Shuang-Jian; Zhang, Bo-Heng

2017-01-01

Abstract Adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a major option for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with recurrence risk factors. However, individualized predictive models for subgroup of these patients are limited. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with HCC underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection. A cohort comprising 144 HCC patients who received adjuvant TACE following curative resection in the Zhongshan Hospital were analyzed. The nomogram was formulated based on independent prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and compared with the conventional staging systems. The results were validated in an independent cohort of 86 patients with the same inclusion criteria. Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), incomplete tumor encapsulation, and double positive staining of Cytokeratin 7 and Cytokeratin 19 on tumor cells were identified as independent predictors for OS. The C-indices of the nomogram for OS prediction in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.787 (95%CI 0.775–0.799) and 0.714 (95%CI 0.695–0.733), respectively. In both the training and validation cohorts, the calibration plot showed good consistency between the nomogram-predicted and the observed survival. Furthermore, the established nomogram was superior to the conventional staging systems in terms of C-index and clinical net benefit on DCA. The proposed nomogram provided an accurate prediction on risk stratification for HCC patients underwent adjuvant TACE following curative resection. PMID:28296727

The use of nomograms in LDR-HDR prostate brachytherapy.

PubMed

Pujades, Ma Carmen; Camacho, Cristina; Perez-Calatayud, Jose; Richart, José; Gimeno, Jose; Lliso, Françoise; Carmona, Vicente; Ballester, Facundo; Crispín, Vicente; Rodríguez, Silvia; Tormo, Alejandro

2011-09-01

The common use of nomograms in Low Dose Rate (LDR) permanent prostate brachytherapy (BT) allows to estimate the number of seeds required for an implant. Independent dosimetry verification is recommended for each clinical dosimetry in BT. Also, nomograms can be useful for dose calculation quality assurance and they could be adapted to High Dose Rate (HDR). This work sets nomograms for LDR and HDR prostate-BT implants, which are applied to three different institutions that use different implant techniques. Patients treated throughout 2010 till April 2011 were considered for this study. This example was chosen to be the representative of the latest implant techniques and to ensure consistency in the planning. A sufficient number of cases for both BT modalities, prescription dose and different work methodology (depending on the institution) were taken into account. The specific nomograms were built using the correlation between the prostate volume and some characteristic parameters of each BT modality, such as the source Air Kerma Strength, number of implanted seeds in LDR or total radiation time in HDR. For each institution and BT modality, nomograms normalized to the prescribed dose were obtained and fitted to a linear function. The parameters of the adjustment show a good agreement between data and the fitting. It should be noted that for each institution these linear function parameters are different, indicating that each centre should construct its own nomograms. Nomograms for LDR and HDR prostate brachytherapy are simple quality assurance tools, specific for each institution. Nevertheless, their use should be complementary to the necessary independent verification.

The use of nomograms in LDR-HDR prostate brachytherapy

PubMed Central

Camacho, Cristina; Perez-Calatayud, Jose; Richart, José; Gimeno, Jose; Lliso, Françoise; Carmona, Vicente; Ballester, Facundo; Crispín, Vicente; Rodríguez, Silvia; Tormo, Alejandro

2011-01-01

Purpose The common use of nomograms in Low Dose Rate (LDR) permanent prostate brachytherapy (BT) allows to estimate the number of seeds required for an implant. Independent dosimetry verification is recommended for each clinical dosimetry in BT. Also, nomograms can be useful for dose calculation quality assurance and they could be adapted to High Dose Rate (HDR). This work sets nomograms for LDR and HDR prostate-BT implants, which are applied to three different institutions that use different implant techniques. Material and methods Patients treated throughout 2010 till April 2011 were considered for this study. This example was chosen to be the representative of the latest implant techniques and to ensure consistency in the planning. A sufficient number of cases for both BT modalities, prescription dose and different work methodology (depending on the institution) were taken into account. The specific nomograms were built using the correlation between the prostate volume and some characteristic parameters of each BT modality, such as the source Air Kerma Strength, number of implanted seeds in LDR or total radiation time in HDR. Results For each institution and BT modality, nomograms normalized to the prescribed dose were obtained and fitted to a linear function. The parameters of the adjustment show a good agreement between data and the fitting. It should be noted that for each institution these linear function parameters are different, indicating that each centre should construct its own nomograms. Conclusions Nomograms for LDR and HDR prostate brachytherapy are simple quality assurance tools, specific for each institution. Nevertheless, their use should be complementary to the necessary independent verification. PMID:23346120

Nurse- vs nomogram-directed glucose control in a cardiovascular intensive care unit.

PubMed

Chant, Clarence; Mustard, Mary; Thorpe, Kevin E; Friedrich, Jan O

2012-07-01

Paper-based nomograms are reasonably effective for achieving glycemic control but have low adherence and are less adaptive than nurses' judgment. To compare efficacy (glucose control) and safety (hypoglycemia) achieved by use of a paper nomogram versus nurses' judgment. Prospective, randomized, open-label, crossover trial in an intensive care unit in postoperative patients with glucose concentrations greater than 8 mmol/L. Consenting nurses with at least 1 year of experience were randomized to use either their judgment or a validated paper-based nomogram for glucose control. After completion of 2 study shifts, the nurses used the alternative method for the next 2 study shifts. Glucose target level and safety and efficacy boundaries were the same for both methods. The primary end point was area under glucose time curve per hour. Thirty-four nurses contributed 95 shifts of data (44 nomogram-directed, 51 nurse-directed). Adherence to the nomogram was higher in the nomogram group than hypothetical adherence in the nurse-directed group for correct adjustments in insulin infusion (70% vs 37%; P < .001) and glucose checks (58% vs 43%; P = .008). The primary end point did not differ between the 2 groups (mean, 9.0 mmol/L; SD, 3.5 vs mean, 8.3 mmol/L; SD, 2.1; P = .08). Glucose variability, amount of time patients were hypoglycemic or hyperglycemic, and number of glucose checks performed were similar in the 2 groups. In an intensive care unit where nurses generally accepted the need for tight glucose control, nurse-directed control was as effective and as safe as nomogram-based control.

Non sentinel node involvement prediction for sentinel node micrometastases in breast cancer: nomogram validation and comparison with other models.

PubMed

Houvenaeghel, Gilles; Bannier, Marie; Nos, Claude; Giard, Sylvia; Mignotte, Herve; Jacquemier, Jocelyne; Martino, Marc; Esterni, Benjamin; Belichard, Catherine; Classe, Jean-Marc; Tunon de Lara, Christine; Cohen, Monique; Payan, Raoul; Blanchot, Jerome; Rouanet, Philippe; Penault-Llorca, Frederique; Bonnier, Pascal; Fournet, Sandrine; Agostini, Aubert; Marchal, Frederique; Garbay, Jean-Remi

2012-04-01

The risk of non sentinel node (NSN) involvement varies in function of the characteristics of sentinel nodes (SN) and primary tumor. Our aim was to determine and validate a statistical tool (a nomogram) able to predict the risk of NSN involvement in case of SN micro or sub-micrometastasis of breast cancer. We have compared this monogram with other models described in the literature. We have collected data on 905 patients, then 484 other patients, to build and validate the nomogram and compare it with other published scores and nomograms. Multivariate analysis conducted on the data of the first cohort allowed us to define a nomogram based on 5 criteria: the method of SN detection (immunohistochemistry or by standard coloration with HES); the ratio of positive SN out of total removed SN; the pathologic size of the tumor; the histological type; and the presence (or not) of lympho-vascular invasion. The nomogram developed here is the only one dedicated to micrometastasis and developed on the basis of two large cohorts. The results of this statistical tool in the calculation of the risk of NSN involvement is similar to those of the MSKCC (the similarly more effective nomogram according to the literature), with a lower rate of false negatives. this nomogram is dedicated specifically to cases of SN involvement by metastasis lower or equal to 2 mm. It could be used in clinical practice in the way to omit ALND when the risk of NSN involvement is low. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complementary role of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram to the American Joint Committee on Cancer system for the prediction of relapse of major salivary gland carcinoma after surgery.

PubMed

Chou, Wen-Chi; Chang, Kai-Ping; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Chen, Miao-Fen; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Yeh, Kun-Yun; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study was to test the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram in predicting recurrence risk of major salivary gland carcinoma in an Asian cohort. We retrospectively enrolled 149 patients who had undergone intended curative resections for major salivary gland carcinoma between 2007 and 2012. The performance of the MSKCC nomogram and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh staging system in predicting recurrence risk was compared. The MSKCC nomogram and the AJCC staging system both accurately predicted the 5-year recurrence probabilities, with the concordance index (c-index = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.89 vs c-index, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.68-0.87; p = .45) in patients with major salivary gland carcinomas after curative surgeries. Comparing to the actual observed events, the calibration plot indicated that the MSKCC nomogram accurately estimated the recurrence in low-risk groups but tended to overestimate in high-risk groups. When using the MSKCC nomogram to predict the 5-year recurrence-free probability in each AJCC stage, the prediction was very good for patients with AJCC stages I and II disease (c-index = 0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and modest for those of AJCC stages III and IVa (c-index = 0.51 and 0.62, respectively). The MSKCC nomogram and the AJCC staging system each had its value in predicting recurrence of major salivary gland cancers. When using the MSKCC nomogram to predict the 5-year recurrence-free probability in each AJCC stage, the MSKCC nomogram was more accurate in predicting recurrence risks in those patients with AJCC stage I and II diseases than those with late-stage diseases. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 39: 860-867, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of a Postoperative Nomogram Predicting Recurrence in Patients with Conventional Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Lee, Byron H; Feifer, Andrew; Feuerstein, Michael A; Benfante, Nicole E; Kou, Lei; Yu, Changhong; Kattan, Michael W; Russo, Paul

2018-01-01

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) continues to be the most commonly diagnosed subtype and is associated with more aggressive behavior than papillary and chromophobe RCC. Predicting disease recurrence after surgical extirpation is important for counseling and targeting those at high risk for adjuvant therapy clinical trials. To validate a postoperative nomogram predicting 5-yr recurrence-free probability (RFP) for clinically localized clear cell RCC. We identified all patients who underwent nephrectomy for clinically localized clear cell RCC from 1990 to 2009 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. After excluding patients with bilateral renal masses, familial RCC syndromes, and T3c or T4 tumors due to the limited number, 1642 participants were available for analysis. Partial or radical nephrectomy. Disease recurrence was defined as any new tumor after nephrectomy or kidney cancer-specific mortality, whichever occurred first. A postoperative nomogram was used to calculate the predicted 5-yr RFP, and these values were compared with the actual 5-yr RFP. Nomogram performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration plot. Median follow-up was 39 mo (interquartile range: 14-79 mo), and disease recurrence was observed in 50 patients. The nomogram concordance index was 0.81. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram underestimated the actual 5-yr RFP. We updated the nomogram by including the entire patient population, which maintained performance and significantly improved calibration. The updated clear cell RCC postoperative nomogram performed well in the combined cohort. Underestimation of actual 5-yr RFP by the original nomogram may be due to increased surgeon experience and other unknown variables. We updated a valuable prediction tool used for assessing the disease recurrence probability after nephrectomy for clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of prognostic nomograms based on different nodal staging systems in patients with resected gastric cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Zi-Xian; Qiu, Miao-Zhen; Jiang, Yu-Ming; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Li, Guo-Xin; Xu, Rui-Hua

2017-01-01

Purpose: Previous studies addressing the optimal nodal staging system in patients with resected gastric cancer have shown inconsistent results, and the optimal system for development of prognostic nomograms remains unclear. In this study, we compared prognostic nomograms based on the metastatic lymph node (MLN) count, lymph node ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict the 5-year overall survival in patients with resected gastric cancer. Methods: We analysed 15,320 patients with resected gastric cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1988 and 2010. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. When assessed as a continuous covariate with restricted cubic splines, each MLN, LNR, and LODDS variable was incorporated into a nomogram with other significant prognosticators to predict the 5-year overall survival. A two-centre Chinese dataset (1,595 cases) was used as external validation data. Results: The discriminatory abilities of the MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS-based nomograms were comparable (concordance indices: 0.744, 0.741, and 0.744, respectively, in the SEER set, P > 0.152 for all pairwise comparisons; 0.715, 0.712, and 0.713, respectively, in the Chinese set, P > 0.445 for all pairwise comparisons). The discriminatory abilities of the three nomograms were all superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (concordance indices: 0.713, P < 0.001 for all in the SEER set; and 0.693, P < 0.001 for all in the Chinese set). The discriminatory abilities of the nomograms were comparable regardless of the number of nodes examined. Moreover, decision curve analyses indicated similar net benefits of using the nomograms. Conclusion: MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS should be considered equally in the development of multivariate prognostic models and nomograms to refine the prediction of survival among patients with resected gastric cancer.

Development and external validation of a prostate health index-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Zhu, Yao; Han, Cheng-Tao; Zhang, Gui-Ming; Liu, Fang; Ding, Qiang; Xu, Jian-Feng; Vidal, Adriana C.; Freedland, Stephen J.; Ng, Chi-Fai; Ye, Ding-Wei

2015-01-01

To develop and externally validate a prostate health index (PHI)-based nomogram for predicting the presence of prostate cancer (PCa) at biopsy in Chinese men with prostate-specific antigen 4–10 ng/mL and normal digital rectal examination (DRE). 347 men were recruited from two hospitals between 2012 and 2014 to develop a PHI-based nomogram to predict PCa. To validate these results, we used a separate cohort of 230 men recruited at another center between 2008 and 2013. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were used to assess the ability to predict PCa. A nomogram was derived from the multivariable logistic regression model and its accuracy was assessed by the area under the ROC (AUC). PHI achieved the highest AUC of 0.839 in the development cohort compared to the other predictors (p < 0.001). Including age and prostate volume, a PHI-based nomogram was constructed and rendered an AUC of 0.877 (95% CI 0.813–0.938). The AUC of the nomogram in the validation cohort was 0.786 (95% CI 0.678–0.894). In clinical effectiveness analyses, the PHI-based nomogram reduced unnecessary biopsies from 42.6% to 27% using a 5% threshold risk of PCa to avoid biopsy with no increase in the number of missed cases relative to conventional biopsy decision. PMID:26471350

Limitations of lumber-yield nomograms for predicting lumber requirements

Treesearch

Kristen Hoff

2000-01-01

Lumber yield nomograms developed during the last 30 years have limited use when predicting the volume of rough lumber required to fill a particular cutting bill. Inaccuracies occur when nomogram yields are applied to situations in which processing technologies differ from those used during data collection, and when a variety of lengths and widths are specified in the...

One-stop shop whole-body 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI compared to clinical Nomograms for preoperative T- and N-Staging of High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Thalgott, Mark; Düwel, Charlotte; Rauscher, Isabel; Heck, Matthias M; Haller, Bernhard; Gafita, Andrei; Gschwend, Jürgen E; Schwaiger, Markus; Maurer, Tobias; Eiber, Matthias

2018-05-24

Our aim was to assess the diagnostic potential of one-stop shop Prostate-specific membrane antigen-ligand Positron Emission Tomography/Magnetic Resonance Imaging ( 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI) compared to preoperative staging nomograms in patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PC). Methods: A total of 102 patients underwent 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI before intended radical prostatectomy (RP) with lymph node dissection. Preoperative variables determined the probabilities for lymph node metastases (LNM), extracapsular extension (ECE) and seminal vesical involvement (SVI) using the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram and Partin tables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to determine best discriminatory cutoffs. On cohort base, positivity rates of imaging and nomograms were compared to pathological prevalence. On patient base, sensitivity, specificity and its area under the curves (AUCs) were calculated. Finally, the full concordance of each method to postoperative T- and N-stage was determined. Results: 73 patients were finally analysed. On cohort base, the MSKCC nomogram (39.7%) positivity rate was most concordant with pathological prevalence for LNM (34.3%) compared to Partin tables (14.1%) and imaging (20.6). Prevalence of ECE (72.6%) was best predicted by MSKCC nomograms and imaging (83.6% each), compared to Partin tables (38.4%). For prevalence of SVI (45.2%), imaging (47.9%) performed superior to MSKCC (37.6%) and Partin tables (19.3%). On patient base, AUCs for LNM, ECE and SVI did not differ significantly between tests (p>0.05). Imaging revealed a high specificity (100%) for LNM and a sensitivity (60%) comparable to the MSKCC nomogram (68%) and Partin tables (60%). For ECE, imaging revealed the highest sensitivity (94.3%) compared to the MSKCC nomogram (66%) and Partin tables (71.1%). For SVI, sensitivity and specificity of imaging and MSKCC nomogram were comparable (81.5% and 80% vs. 87.9% and 75%). The rate of concordance to the final pTN-stage was 60.3% for imaging, 52.1% for the MSKCC nomogram and 39.7% for Partin tables. Conclusion: In our analysis, preoperative one-stop shop 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI performs at least equally for T- and N-stage prediction compared to nomograms in high-risk PC patients. Despite, an improved prediction of the full final stage and the yield of additional anatomical information, the use of 68 Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI warrants further prospective evaluation. Copyright © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Predicting Likelihood of Having Four or More Positive Nodes in Patient With Sentinel Lymph Node-Positive Breast Cancer: A Nomogram Validation Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unal, Bulent; Gur, Akif Serhat; Beriwal, Sushil

2009-11-15

Purpose: Katz suggested a nomogram for predicting having four or more positive nodes in sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer patients. The findings from this formula might influence adjuvant radiotherapy decisions. Our goal was to validate the accuracy of the Katz nomogram. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 309 patients with breast cancer who had undergone completion axillary lymph node dissection. The factors associated with the likelihood of having four or more positive axillary nodes were evaluated in patients with one to three positive SLNs. The nomogram developed by Katz was applied to our data set. The areamore » under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated for the nomogram. Results: Of the 309 patients, 80 (25.9%) had four or more positive axillary lymph nodes. On multivariate analysis, the number of positive SLNs (p < .0001), overall metastasis size (p = .019), primary tumor size (p = .0001), and extracapsular extension (p = .01) were significant factors predicting for four or more positive nodes. For patients with <5% probability, 90.3% had fewer than four positive nodes and 9.7% had four or more positive nodes. The negative predictive value was 91.7%, and sensitivity was 80%. The nomogram was accurate and discriminating (area under the curve, .801). Conclusion: The probability of four or more involved nodes is significantly greater in patients who have an increased number of positive SLNs, increased overall metastasis size, increased tumor size, and extracapsular extension. The Katz nomogram was validated in our patients. This nomogram will be helpful to clinicians making adjuvant treatment recommendations to their patients.« less

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting recurrence risk in women with symptomatic urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Cai, Tommaso; Mazzoli, Sandra; Migno, Serena; Malossini, Gianni; Lanzafame, Paolo; Mereu, Liliana; Tateo, Saverio; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Pickard, Robert S; Bartoletti, Riccardo

2014-09-01

To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram predicting recurrence risk probability at 12 months in women after an episode of urinary tract infection. The study included 768 women from Santa Maria Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy, affected by urinary tract infections from January 2005 to December 2009. Another 373 women with the same criteria enrolled at Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy, from January 2010 to June 2012 were used to externally validate and calibrate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models tested the relationship between urinary tract infection recurrence risk, and patient clinical and laboratory characteristics. The nomogram was evaluated by calculating concordance probabilities, as well as testing calibration of predicted urinary tract infection recurrence with observed urinary tract infections. Nomogram variables included: number of partners, bowel function, type of pathogens isolated (Gram-positive/negative), hormonal status, number of previous urinary tract infection recurrences and previous treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Of the original development data, 261 out of 768 women presented at least one episode of recurrence of urinary tract infection (33.9%). The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.85. The nomogram predictions were well calibrated. This model showed high discrimination accuracy and favorable calibration characteristics. In the validation group (373 women), the overall c-index was 0.83 (P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.99), whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). The present nomogram accurately predicts the recurrence risk of urinary tract infection at 12 months, and can assist in identifying women at high risk of symptomatic recurrence that can be suitable candidates for a prophylactic strategy. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

Lymph nodes ratio based nomogram predicts survival of resectable gastric cancer regardless of the number of examined lymph nodes.

PubMed

Chen, Shangxiang; Rao, Huamin; Liu, Jianjun; Geng, Qirong; Guo, Jing; Kong, Pengfei; Li, Shun; Liu, Xuechao; Sun, Xiaowei; Zhan, Youqing; Xu, Dazhi

2017-07-11

To develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of gastric cancer patients on the basis of metastatic lymph nodes ratio (mLNR), especially in the patients with total number of examined lymph nodes (TLN) less than 15. The nomogram was constructed based on a retrospective database that included 2,205 patients underwent curative resection in Cancer Center, Sun Yat-sen University (SYSUCC). Resectable gastric cancer (RGC) patients underwent curative resection before December 31, 2008 were assigned as the training set (n=1,470) and those between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2012 were selected as the internal validation set (n=735). Additional external validations were also performed separately by an independent data set (n=602) from Jiangxi Provincial Cancer Hospital (JXCH) in Jiangxi, China and a data set (n=3,317) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Independent risk factors were identified by Multivariate Cox Regression. In the SYSUCC set, TNM (Tumor-node-metastasis) and TRM-based (Tumor-Positive Nodes Ratio-Metastasis) nomograms were constructed respectively. The TNM-based nomogram showed better discrimination than the AJCC-TNM staging system (C-index: 0.73 versus 0.69, p<0.01). When the mLNR was included in the nomogram, the C-index increased to 0.76. Furthermore, the C-index in the TRM-based nomogram was similar between TLN ≥16 (C-index: 0.77) and TLN ≤15 (C-index: 0.75). The discrimination was further ascertained by internal and external validations. We developed and validated a novel TRM-based nomogram that provided more accurate prediction of survival for gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection, regardless of the number of examined lymph nodes.

Development of a prognostic nomogram for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Zhou, Yu-Jie; Zheng, Ji-Na; Zhou, Yi-Fan; Han, Yi-Jing; Zou, Tian-Tian; Liu, Wen-Yue; Braddock, Martin; Shi, Ke-Qing; Wang, Xiao-Dong; Zheng, Ming-Hua

2017-10-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a complication with a high mortality rate in critically ill patients presenting with cirrhosis. Today, there exist few accurate scoring models specifically designed for mortality risk assessment in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (CICGIB). Our aim was to develop and evaluate a novel nomogram-based model specific for CICGIB. Overall, 540 consecutive CICGIB patients were enrolled. On the basis of Cox regression analyses, the nomogram was constructed to estimate the probability of 30-day, 90-day, 270-day, and 1-year survival. An upper gastrointestinal bleeding-chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (UGIB-CLIF-SOFA) score was derived from the nomogram. Performance assessment and internal validation of the model were performed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedures. UGIB-CLIF-SOFA was also compared with other prognostic models, such as CLIF-SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease, using C-indices. Eight independent factors derived from Cox analysis (including bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, sodium, albumin, mean artery pressure, vasopressin used, and hematocrit decrease>10%) were assembled into the nomogram and the UGIB-CLIF-SOFA score. The calibration plots showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram using bootstrap (0.729; 95% confidence interval: 0.689-0.766) was higher than that of the other models for predicting survival of CICGIB. We have developed and internally validated a novel nomogram and an easy-to-use scoring system that accurately predicts the mortality probability of CICGIB on the basis of eight easy-to-obtain parameters. External validation is now warranted in future clinical studies.

Prediction of overall survival for metastatic pancreatic cancer: Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram with data from open clinical trial and real-world study.

PubMed

Hang, Junjie; Wu, Lixia; Zhu, Lina; Sun, Zhiqiang; Wang, Ge; Pan, Jingjing; Zheng, Suhua; Xu, Kequn; Du, Jiadi; Jiang, Hua

2018-06-01

It is necessary to develop prognostic tools of metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) for optimizing therapeutic strategies. Thus, we tried to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram of MPC. Data from 3 clinical trials (NCT00844649, NCT01124786, and NCT00574275) and 133 Chinese MPC patients were used for analysis. The former 2 trials were taken as the training cohort while NCT00574275 was used as the validation cohort. In addition, 133 MPC patients treated in China were taken as the testing cohort. Cox regression model was used to investigate prognostic factors in the training cohort. With these factors, we established a nomogram and verified it by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. Furthermore, the nomogram was externally validated in the validation cohort and testing cohort. In the training cohort (n = 445), performance status, liver metastasis, Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) log-value, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and albumin were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). A nomogram was established with these factors to predict OS and survival probabilities. The nomogram showed an acceptable discrimination ability (C-index: .683) and good calibration, and was further externally validated in the validation cohort (n = 273, C-index: .699) and testing cohort (n = 133, C-index: .653).The nomogram total points (NTP) had the potential to stratify patients into 3-risk groups with median OS of 11.7, 7.0 and 3.7 months (P < .001), respectively. In conclusion, the prognostic nomogram with NTP can predict OS for patients with MPC with considerable accuracy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of a Frail-Friendly Nomogram with Physician-Adjusted Warfarin Dosage for Prophylaxis after Orthopaedic Surgery on a Geriatric Rehabilitation Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freter, Susan; Bowles, Susan K.

2005-01-01

Warfarin dosing for thromboprophylaxis in post-operative patients is time-consuming. Warfarin-dosing nomograms can be used in post-operative arthroplasty patients, but warfarin requirements are lower in frail older people. We modified an existing post-arthroplasty nomogram to a frail-friendly version and evaluated its performance in a frail…

Validation of a gastric cancer nomogram using a cancer registry.

PubMed

Ashfaq, Awais; Kidwell, John T; McGhan, Lee J; Dueck, Amylou C; Pockaj, Barbara A; Gray, Richard J; Bagaria, Sanjay P; Wasif, Nabil

2015-09-01

A Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSKCC) nomogram predicts disease specific survival (DSS) for gastric adenocarcinoma. The goal of this study is to use a cancer registry to compare nomogram predicted survival with actual survival in the general population. All patients undergoing surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1988-2012) were studied. 6954 patients were identified. Majority of cancers were in the antrum (30.2%), and had intestinal histology (73.7%). Median follow-up was 8.2 years. Five year DSS for nomogram risk groups (0-25%, 26-50%, 51-75%, and 76-100%) was 23%, 48%, 57%, and 81% respectively. Actual DSS was 7-15% lower than nomogram predicted DSS. Relative to patients in the 76-100% 5-year DSS risk group, patients in the 0-25%, 26-50%, and 51-75% groups had significantly higher risks of death with hazard ratios of 6.84 (95%CI 6.12-7.65), 3.30 (95%CI 2.83-3.86), and 2.64 (95%CI 2.30-3.03), respectively (all P < 0.001). The concordance index for 5-year nomogram predicted DSS was 0.68 (95%CI 0.67-0.69). The MSKCC gastric cancer nomogram over-estimates DSS from gastric cancer in the general population and has a moderate concordance index. Predictive tools generated at specialized institutions may not perform as well in the general population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of transcutaneous bilirubin nomogram for identifying neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Yu, Zhangbin; Han, Shuping; Wu, Jinxia; Li, Mingxia; Wang, Huaiyan; Wang, Jimei; Liu, Jiebo; Pan, Xinnian; Yang, Jie; Chen, Chao

2014-01-01

to prospectively validate a previously constructed transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) nomogram for identifying severe hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants. this was a multicenter study that included 9,174 healthy term and late-preterm infants in eight hospitals of China. TcB measurements were performed using a JM-103 bilirubinometer. TcB values were plotted on a previously developed TcB nomogram, to identify the predictive ability for subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. in the present study, 972 neonates (10.6%) developed significant hyperbilirubinemia. The 40(th) percentile of the nomogram could identify all neonates who were at risk of significant hyperbilirubinemia, but with a low positive predictive value (PPV) (18.9%). Of the 453 neonates above the 95(th) percentile, 275 subsequently developed significant hyperbilirubinemia, with a high PPV (60.7%), but with low sensitivity (28.3%). The 75(th) percentile was highly specific (81.9%) and moderately sensitive (79.8%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the TcB nomogram was 0.875. this study validated the previously developed TcB nomogram, which could be used to predict subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants. However, combining TcB nomogram and clinical risk factors could improve the predictive accuracy for severe hyperbilirubinemia, which was not assessed in the study. Further studies are necessary to confirm this combination. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Nomogram Prediction of Overall Survival After Curative Irradiation for Uterine Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, YoungSeok; Yoo, Seong Yul; Kim, Mi-Sook

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram capable of predicting the probability of 5-year survival after radical radiotherapy (RT) without chemotherapy for uterine cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 549 patients that underwent radical RT for uterine cervical cancer between March 1994 and April 2002 at our institution. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed and this Cox model was used as the basis for the devised nomogram. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration by bootstrap resampling. Results: By multivariate regression analysis, the model showed that age, hemoglobin levelmore » before RT, Federation Internationale de Gynecologie Obstetrique (FIGO) stage, maximal tumor diameter, lymph node status, and RT dose at Point A significantly predicted overall survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.67. The predictive ability of the nomogram proved to be superior to FIGO stage (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The devised nomogram offers a significantly better level of discrimination than the FIGO staging system. In particular, it improves predictions of survival probability and could be useful for counseling patients, choosing treatment modalities and schedules, and designing clinical trials. However, before this nomogram is used clinically, it should be externally validated.« less

Accuracy of a nomogram for prediction of lymph-node metastasis detected with conventional histopathology and ultrastaging in endometrial cancer

PubMed Central

Koskas, M; Chereau, E; Ballester, M; Dubernard, G; Lécuru, F; Heitz, D; Mathevet, P; Marret, H; Querleu, D; Golfier, F; Leblanc, E; Luton, D; Rouzier, R; Daraï, E

2013-01-01

Background: We developed a nomogram based on five clinical and pathological characteristics to predict lymph-node (LN) metastasis with a high concordance probability in endometrial cancer. Sentinel LN (SLN) biopsy has been suggested as a compromise between systematic lymphadenectomy and no dissection in patients with low-risk endometrial cancer. Methods: Patients with stage I–II endometrial cancer had pelvic SLN and systematic pelvic-node dissection. All LNs were histopathologically examined, and the SLNs were examined by immunohistochemistry. We compared the accuracy of the nomogram at predicting LN detected with conventional histopathology (macrometastasis) and ultrastaging procedure using SLN (micrometastasis). Results: Thirty-eight of the 187 patients (20%) had pelvic LN metastases, 20 had macrometastases and 18 had micrometastases. For the prediction of macrometastases, the nomogram showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76, and was well calibrated (average error =2.1%). For the prediction of micro- and macrometastases, the nomogram showed poorer discrimination, with an AUC of 0.67, and was less well calibrated (average error =10.9%). Conclusion: Our nomogram is accurate at predicting LN macrometastases but less accurate at predicting micrometastases. Our results suggest that micrometastases are an ‘intermediate state' between disease-free LN and macrometastasis. PMID:23481184

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of cancer in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodules: A multi-institutional study.

PubMed

She, Yunlang; Zhao, Lilan; Dai, Chenyang; Ren, Yijiu; Jiang, Gening; Xie, Huikang; Zhu, Huiyuan; Sun, Xiwen; Yang, Ping; Chen, Yongbing; Shi, Shunbin; Shi, Weirong; Yu, Bing; Xie, Dong; Chen, Chang

2017-11-01

To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy in a Japanese cohort: development of a postoperative nomogram.

PubMed

Okubo, Hidenori; Ohori, Makoto; Ohno, Yoshio; Nakashima, Jun; Inoue, Rie; Nagao, Toshitaka; Tachibana, Masaaki

2014-05-01

To develop a nomogram based on postoperative factors and prostate-specific antigen levels to predict the non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy ina Japanese cohort. A total of 606 Japanese patients with T1-3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at Tokyo Medical University hospital from 2000 to 2010 were studied. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox hazard regression analysis evaluating the prognostic significance of serum prostate-specific antigen and pathological factors in the radical prostatectomy specimens. The discriminating ability of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), and the predicted and actual outcomes were compared with a bootstrapped calibration plot. With a mean follow up of 60.0 months, a total of 187 patients (30.9%) experienced biochemical recurrence, with a 5-year non-biochemical recurrence rate of 72.3%. Based on a Cox hazard regression model, a nomogram was constructed to predict non-biochemical recurrence using serum prostate-specific antigen level and pathological features in radical prostatectomy specimens. The concordance index was 0.77, and the calibration plots appeared to be accurate. The postoperative nomogram described here can provide valuable information regarding the need for adjuvant/salvage radiation or hormonal therapy in patients after radical prostatectomy.

An inflammation-related nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer after pulmonary lobectomy.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Qu, Xiao; Kam, Ngar-Woon; Wang, Kai; Shen, Hongchang; Liu, Qi; Du, Jiajun

2018-06-26

Emerging inflammatory response biomarkers are developed to predict the survival of patients with cancer, the aim of our study is to establish an inflammation-related nomogram based on the classical predictive biomarkers to predict the survivals of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Nine hundred and fifty-two NSCLC patients with lung cancer surgery performed were enrolled into this study. The cutoffs of inflammatory response biomarkers were determined by Receiver operating curve (ROC). Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to select independent prognostic factors to develop the nomogram. The median follow-up time was 40.0 months (range, 1 to 92 months). The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (cut-off: 3.10, HR:1.648, P = 0.045) was selected to establish the nomogram which could predict the 5-year OS probability. The C-index of nomogram was 0.72 and the 5-year OS calibration curve displayed an optimal agreement between the actual observed outcomes and the predictive results. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was shown to be a valuable biomarker for predicting survival of patients with NSCLC. The addition of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio could improve the accuracy and predictability of the nomogram in order to provide reference for clinicians to assess patient outcomes.

A nomogram based on mammary ductoscopic indicators for evaluating the risk of breast cancer in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge.

PubMed

Lian, Zhen-Qiang; Wang, Qi; Zhang, An-Qin; Zhang, Jiang-Yu; Han, Xiao-Rong; Yu, Hai-Yun; Xie, Si-Mei

2015-04-01

Mammary ductoscopy (MD) is commonly used to detect intraductal lesions associated with nipple discharge. This study investigated the relationships between ductoscopic image-based indicators and breast cancer risk, and developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge. A total of 879 consecutive inpatients (916 breasts) with nipple discharge who underwent selective duct excision for intraductal neoplasms detected by MD from June 2008 to April 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram was developed using a multivariate logistic regression model based on data from a training set (687 cases) and validated in an independent validation set (229 cases). A Youden-derived cut-off value was assigned to the nomogram for the diagnosis of breast cancer. Color of discharge, location, appearance, and surface of neoplasm, and morphology of ductal wall were independent predictors for breast cancer in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram based on these predictors performed well. The P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the prediction model was 0.36. Area under the curve values of 0.812 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.763-0.860) and 0.738 (95 % CI 0.635-0.841) was obtained in the training and validation sets, respectively. The accuracies of the nomogram for breast cancer diagnosis were 71.2 % in the training set and 75.5 % in the validation set. We developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge based on MD image findings. This model may aid individual risk assessment and guide treatment in clinical practice.

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Yukiyo; Yamauchi, Yasuhiro; Yasunaga, Hideo; Takeshima, Hideyuki; Hasegawa, Wakae; Jo, Taisuke; Sasabuchi, Yusuke; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Nagase, Takahide

2017-01-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of their disease, sometimes requiring hospital admission and being associated with increased mortality. Although previous studies have reported mortality from exacerbations of COPD, there is limited information about prediction of individual in-hospital mortality. We therefore aimed to use data from a nationwide inpatient database in Japan to generate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality from patients' characteristics on admission. We retrospectively collected data on patients with COPD who had been admitted for exacerbations and been discharged between July 1, 2010 and March 31, 2013. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine factors associated with in-hospital mortality and thereafter used these factors to develop a nomogram for predicting in-hospital prognosis. The study comprised 3,064 eligible patients. In-hospital death occurred in 209 patients (6.8%). Higher mortality was associated with older age, being male, lower body mass index, disturbance of consciousness, severe dyspnea, history of mechanical ventilation, pneumonia, and having no asthma on admission. We developed a nomogram based on these variables to predict in-hospital mortality. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.775. Internal validation was performed by a bootstrap method with 50 resamples, and calibration plots were found to be well fitted to predict in-hospital mortality. We developed a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of exacerbations of COPD. This nomogram could help clinicians to predict risk of in-hospital mortality in individual patients with COPD exacerbation.

Nomograms Predicting Response to Therapy and Outcomes After Bladder-Preserving Trimodality Therapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coen, John J., E-mail: jcoen@harthosp.org; Paly, Jonathan J.; Niemierko, Andrzej

2013-06-01

Purpose: Selective bladder preservation by use of trimodality therapy is an established management strategy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Individual disease features have been associated with response to therapy, likelihood of bladder preservation, and disease-free survival. We developed prognostic nomograms to predict the complete response rate, disease-specific survival, and likelihood of remaining free of recurrent bladder cancer or cystectomy. Methods and Materials: From 1986 to 2009, 325 patients were managed with selective bladder preservation at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and had complete data adequate for nomogram development. Treatment consisted of a transurethral resection of bladder tumor followed by split-course chemoradiation. Patientsmore » with a complete response at midtreatment cystoscopic assessment completed radiation, whereas those with a lesser response underwent a prompt cystectomy. Prognostic nomograms were constructed predicting complete response (CR), disease-specific survival (DSS), and bladder-intact disease-free survival (BI-DFS). BI-DFS was defined as the absence of local invasive or regional recurrence, distant metastasis, bladder cancer-related death, or radical cystectomy. Results: The final nomograms included information on clinical T stage, presence of hydronephrosis, whether a visibly complete transurethral resection of bladder tumor was performed, age, sex, and tumor grade. The predictive accuracy of these nomograms was assessed. For complete response, the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve was 0.69. The Harrell concordance index was 0.61 for both DSS and BI-DFS. Conclusions: Our nomograms allow individualized estimates of complete response, DSS, and BI-DFS. They may assist patients and clinicians making important treatment decisions.« less

A pretreatment nomogram for prediction of biochemical failure after primary cryoablation of the prostate.

PubMed

Elshafei, Ahmed; Kovac, Evan; Dhar, Nivedita; Levy, David; Polascik, Thomas; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Yu, Changhong; Jones, J Stephen

2015-09-01

To create a predictive nomogram for biochemical failure following primary whole-gland cryoablation of the prostate for localized prostate cancer (LPCa). We retrospectively analyzed 2,242 patients from the Cryo On-Line Database (COLD) who were treatment naive and had undergone primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate for biopsy-confirmed LPCa. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves estimating 5 year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) were generated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis (CoxPH) was performed in order to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap technique. Overall, the KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 72.8%. Stratified by D'Amico risk, The KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 82.6%, 71.1%, and 57.8% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Statistically significant predictors of biochemical outcomes from CoxPH analysis were pre-treatment prostate specific antigen (PTPSA) (P < 0.001), total prostate volume (P = 0.004), clinical stage (P = 0.034), and Gleason score (0.004). A nomogram for predicted 5 year biochemical progression free probability was constructed with a concordance index of 0.652. An online risk calculator was also generated. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first predictive nomogram for biochemical outcomes after primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate using socio-demographic, pretreatment, clinical, and prostate biopsy data. Our nomogram and online risk calculator can guide both patients and urologists for shared decision making regarding definitive treatment options. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictive Factors for Nonsentinel Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Positive Sentinel Lymph Nodes After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: Nomogram for Predicting Nonsentinel Lymph Node Metastasis.

PubMed

Ryu, Jai Min; Lee, Se Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Yu, Jonghan; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Jeong Eon; Han, Se Hwan; Jung, Yong Sik; Nam, Seok Jin

2017-11-01

Axillary lymph node (ALN) status is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer patients. With increasing numbers of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), issues concerning sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) after NAC have emerged. We analyzed the clinicopathologic features and developed a nomogram to predict the possibility of nonsentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastases in patients with positive SLNs after NAC. A retrospective medical record review was performed of 140 patients who had had clinically positive ALNs at presentation, had a positive SLN after NAC on subsequent SLNB, and undergone axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) from 2008 to 2014. On multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, pathologic T stage, lymphovascular invasion, SLN metastasis size, and number of positive SLN metastases were independent predictors for NSLN metastases (P < .05). The NAC nomogram was based on these 4 variables. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.791 for the NAC nomogram. In the internal validation of performance, the AUCs for the training and test sets were 0.801 and 0.760, respectively. The nomogram was validated in an external patient cohort, with an AUC of 0.705. The Samsung Medical Center NAC nomogram was developed to predict the likelihood of additional positive NSLNs. The Samsung Medical Center NAC nomogram could provide information to surgeons regarding whether to perform additional ALND when the permanent biopsy revealed positive findings, although the intraoperative SLNB findings were negative. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of cancer specific survival after radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma: development of an optimized postoperative nomogram using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Rouprêt, Morgan; Hupertan, Vincent; Seisen, Thomas; Colin, Pierre; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Yates, David R; Fajkovic, Harun; Lotan, Yair; Raman, Jay D; Zigeuner, Richard; Remzi, Mesut; Bolenz, Christian; Novara, Giacomo; Kassouf, Wassim; Ouzzane, Adil; Rozet, François; Cussenot, Olivier; Martinez-Salamanca, Juan I; Fritsche, Hans-Martin; Walton, Thomas J; Wood, Christopher G; Bensalah, Karim; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Montorsi, Francesco; Margulis, Vitaly; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2013-05-01

We conceived and proposed a unique and optimized nomogram to predict cancer specific survival after radical nephroureterectomy in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma by merging the 2 largest multicenter data sets reported in this population. The international and the French national collaborative groups on upper tract urothelial carcinoma pooled data on 3,387 patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy for whom full data for nomogram development were available. The merged study population was randomly split into the development cohort (2,371) and the external validation cohort (1,016). Cox regressions were used for univariable and multivariable analyses, and to build different models. The ultimate reduced nomogram was assessed using Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and decision curve analysis. Of the 2,371 patients in the nomogram development cohort 510 (21.5%) died of upper tract urothelial carcinoma during followup. The actuarial cancer specific survival probability at 5 years was 73.7% (95% CI 71.9-75.6). Decision curve analysis revealed that the use of the best model was associated with benefit gains relative to the prediction of cancer specific survival. The optimized nomogram included only 5 variables associated with cancer specific survival on multivariable analysis, those of age (p = 0.001), T stage (p <0.001), N stage (p = 0.001), architecture (p = 0.02) and lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.001). The discriminative accuracy of the nomogram was 0.8 (95% CI 0.77-0.86). Using standard pathological features obtained from the largest data set of upper tract urothelial carcinomas worldwide, we devised and validated an accurate and ultimate nomogram, superior to any single clinical variable, for predicting cancer specific survival after radical nephroureterectomy. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive factors of pathologic complete response of HER2-positive breast cancer after preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab: development of a specific predictor and study of its utilities using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Jankowski, Clémentine; Guiu, S; Cortet, M; Charon-Barra, C; Desmoulins, I; Lorgis, V; Arnould, L; Fumoleau, P; Coudert, B; Rouzier, R; Coutant, C; Reyal, F

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the Institut Gustave Roussy/M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (IGR/MDACC) nomogram in predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative chemotherapy in a cohort of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive tumors treated with preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. We then combine clinical and pathological variables associated with pCR into a new nomogram specific to HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. Data from 270 patients with HER2-positive tumors treated with preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab at the Institut Curie and at the Georges François Leclerc Cancer Center were used to assess the IGR/MDACC nomogram and to subsequently develop a new nomogram for pCR based on multivariate logistic regression. Model performance was quantified in terms of calibration and discrimination. We studied the utility of the new nomogram using decision curve analysis. The IGR/MDACC nomogram was not accurate for the prediction of pCR in HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab, with poor discrimination (AUC = 0.54, 95% CI 0.51-0.58) and poor calibration (p = 0.01). After uni- and multivariate analysis, a new pCR nomogram was built based on T stage (TNM), hormone receptor status, and Ki67 (%). The model had good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) at 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and adequate calibration (p = 0.93). By decision curve analysis, the model was shown to be relevant between thresholds of 0.3 and 0.7. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first nomogram to predict pCR in HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. To ensure generalizability, this model needs to be externally validated.

Nomograms to predict the pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer in Korean men: comparison with western predictive tools using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Jeong, Chang Wook; Jeong, Seong Jin; Hong, Sung Kyu; Lee, Seung Bae; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Byun, Seok-Soo; Jeong, Hyeon; Kwak, Cheol; Kim, Hyeon Hoe; Lee, Eunsik; Lee, Sang Eun

2012-09-01

To develop and evaluate nomograms to predict the pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy in Korean men. We reviewed the medical records of 2041 patients who had clinical stages T1c-T3a prostate cancer and were treated solely with radical prostatectomy at two hospitals. Logistic regressions were carried out to predict organ-confined disease, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, and lymph node metastasis using preoperative variables and resulting nomograms. Internal validations were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plot, and then external validations were carried out on 129 patients from another hospital. Head-to-head comparisons with 2007 Partin tables and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score were carried out using the area under the curve and decision curve analysis. The significant predictors for organ-confined disease and extraprostatic extension were clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score and a percent positive core of biopsy. Significant predictors for seminal vesicle invasion were prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score and percent positive core, and those for lymph node metastasis were prostate-specific antigen and percent positive core. The area under the curve of established nomograms for organ-confined disease, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion and lymph node metastasis were 0.809, 0.804, 0.889 and 0.838, respectively. The nomograms were well calibrated and externally validated. These nomograms showed significantly higher accuracies and net benefits than two Western tools in Korean men. This is the first study to have developed and fully validated nomograms to predict the pathological stage of prostate cancer in an Asian population. These nomograms might be more accurate and useful for Korean men than other predictive models developed using Western populations. © 2012 The Japanese Urological Association.

Development of comprehensive nomograms for evaluating overall and cancer-specific survival of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with neck dissection

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiao; Hu, Wei-ping; Ji, Qing-hai

2017-01-01

Background Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection. Results 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) were 30.1% and 37.2% while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancer-specific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Materials and Methods We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally. Conclusions Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately. PMID:28430613

Postoperative nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival after radical nephroureterectomy in patients with localised and/or locally advanced upper tract urothelial carcinoma without metastasis.

PubMed

Seisen, Thomas; Colin, Pierre; Hupertan, Vincent; Yates, David R; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Nison, Laurent; Cussenot, Olivier; Neuzillet, Yann; Bensalah, Karim; Novara, Giacomo; Montorsi, Francesco; Zigeuner, Richard; Remzi, Mesut; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Rouprêt, Morgan

2014-11-01

To propose and validate a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in patients with pT1-3/N0-x upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). The international and the French national collaborative groups on UTUC pooled data from 3387 patients treated with RNU. Only 2233 chemotherapy naïve pT1-3/N0-x patients were included in the present study. The population was randomly split into the development cohort (1563) and the external validation cohort (670). To build the nomogram, logistic regressions were used for univariable and multivariable analyses. Different models were generated. The most accurate model was assessed using Harrell's concordance index and decision curve analysis (DCA). Internal validation was then performed by bootstrapping. Finally, the nomogram was calibrated and externally validated in the external dataset. Of the 1563 patients in the nomogram development cohort, 309 (19.7%) died during follow-up from UTUC. The actuarial CSS probability at 5 years was 75.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 73.2-78.6%). DCA revealed that the use of the best model was associated with benefit gains relative to prediction of CSS. The optimised nomogram included only six variables associated with CSS in multivariable analysis: age (P < 0.001), pT stage (P < 0.001), grade (P < 0.02), location (P < 0.001), architecture (P < 0.001) and lymphovascular invasion (P < 0.001). The accuracy of the nomogram was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.85). Limitations included the retrospective study design and the lack of a central pathological review. An accurate postoperative nomogram was developed to predict CSS after RNU only in locally and/or locally advanced UTUC without metastasis, where the decision for adjuvant treatment is controversial but crucial for the oncological outcome. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

External Validation of Early Weight Loss Nomograms for Exclusively Breastfed Newborns.

PubMed

Schaefer, Eric W; Flaherman, Valerie J; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Li, Sherian X; Walsh, Eileen M; Paul, Ian M

2015-12-01

Nomograms that show hour-by-hour percentiles of weight loss during the birth hospitalization were recently developed to aid clinical care of breastfeeding newborns. The nomograms for breastfed neonates were based on a sample of 108,907 newborns delivered at 14 Kaiser Permanente medical centers in Northern California (United States). The objective of this study was to externally validate the published nomograms for newborn weight loss using data from a geographically distinct population. Data were compiled from the Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center located in Hershey, PA. For singleton neonates delivered at ≥36 weeks of gestation between January 2013 and September 2014, weights were obtained between 6 hours and 48 hours (vaginal delivery) or 60 hours (cesarean delivery) for neonates who were exclusively breastfeeding. Quantile regression methods appropriate for repeated measures were used to estimate 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of weight loss as a function of time after birth. These percentile estimates were compared with the published nomograms. Of the 1,587 newborns who met inclusion criteria, 1,148 were delivered vaginally, and 439 were delivered via cesarean section. These newborns contributed 1,815 weights for vaginal deliveries (1.6 per newborn) and 893 weights for cesarean deliveries (2.0 per newborn). Percentile estimates from this Penn State sample were similar to the published nomograms. Deviations in percentile estimates for the Penn State sample were similar to deviations observed after fitting the same model separately to each medical center that made up the Kaiser Permanente sample. The published newborn weight loss nomograms for breastfed neonates were externally validated in a geographically distinct population.

Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

PubMed

Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-04-06

To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Evaluation of anatomic and morphologic nomogram to predict malignant and high-grade disease in a cohort of patients with small renal masses.

PubMed

Bagrodia, Aditya; Harrow, Brian; Liu, Zhuo-Wei; Olweny, Ephrem O; Faddegon, Stephen; Yin, Gang; Tan, Yung Khan; Han, Woong Kyu; Lotan, Yair; Margulis, Vitaly; Cadeddu, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

To evaluate a nomogram using the RENAL Nephrometry Score (RENAL-NS) that was developed to characterize masses as benign vs. malignant and high vs. low grade in our patients with small renal masses treated with partial nephrectomy (PN). The nomogram was previously developed and validated in patients with widely variable tumor sizes. Retrospective review of PN performed between 1/2003 and 7/2011. Imaging was reviewed by a urologic surgeon for RENAL-NS. Final pathology was used to classify tumors as benign or malignant and low (I/II) or high (III/IV) Fuhrman grade. Patient age, gender, and RENAL score were entered into the nomogram described by Kutikov et al. to determine probabilities of cancer and high-grade disease. Area under the curve was determined to assess agreement between observed and expected outcomes for prediction of benign vs. malignant disease and for prediction of high- vs. low-grade or benign disease. A total of 250 patients with 252 masses underwent PN during the study period; 179/250 (71.6%) had preoperative imaging available. RENAL-NS was assigned to 181 masses. Twenty-two percent of tumors were benign. Eighteen percent of tumors were high grade. Area under the curve was 0.648 for predicting benign vs. malignant disease and 0.955 for predicting low-grade or benign vs. high-grade disease. The RENAL-NS score nomogram by Kutikov does not discriminate well between benign and malignant disease for small renal masses. The nomogram may potentially be useful in identifying high-grade tumors. Further validation is required where the nomogram probability and final pathologic specimen are available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surgical resection versus liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma within the Hangzhou criteria: a preoperative nomogram-guided treatment strategy.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Ruan, Dan-Yun; Jia, Chang-Chang; Zhao, Hui; Wang, Guo-Ying; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Nan

2017-10-15

With the expansion of surgical criteria, the comparative efficacy between surgical resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma is inconclusive. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after resection and explored the possibility of using nomogram as treatment algorithm reference. From 2003 to 2012, 310 hepatocellular carcinoma patients within Hangzhou criteria undergoing resection or liver transplantation were included. Total tumor volume, albumin level, HBV DNA copies and portal hypertension were included for constructing the nomogram. The resection patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups by the median nomogram score of 116. Independent risk factors were identified and a visually orientated nomogram was constructed using a Cox proportional hazards model to predict the recurrence risk for SR patients. The low-risk SR group had better outcomes compared with the high-risk SR group (3-year recurrence-free survival rate, 71.1% vs 35.9%; 3-year overall survival rate, 89.8% vs 78.9%, both P<0.001). The high-risk SR group was associated with a worse recurrence-free survival rate but similar overall survival rate compared with the transplantation group (3-year recurrence-free survival rate, 35.9% vs 74.1%, P<0.001; 3-year overall survival rate, 78.9% vs 79.6%, P>0.05). This nomogram offers individualized recurrence risk evaluation for hepatocellular carcinoma patients within Hangzhou criteria receiving resection. Transplantation should be considered the first-line treatment for high-risk patients. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study

PubMed Central

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log(des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment. PMID:28458303

Magnetic Resonance Lymphography Findings in Patients With Biochemical Recurrence After Prostatectomy and the Relation With the Stephenson Nomogram

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meijer, Hanneke J.M., E-mail: H.Meijer@rther.umcn.nl; Debats, Oscar A.; Roach, Mack

2012-12-01

Purpose: To estimate the occurrence of positive lymph nodes on magnetic resonance lymphography (MRL) in patients with a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence after prostatectomy and to investigate the relation between score on the Stephenson nomogram and lymph node involvement on MRL. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five candidates for salvage radiation therapy were referred for an MRL to determine their lymph node status. Clinical and histopathologic features were recorded. For 49 patients, data were complete to calculate the Stephenson nomogram score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine how well this nomogram related to the MRL result. Analysis was donemore » for the whole group and separately for patients with a PSA <1.0 ng/mL to determine the situation in candidates for early salvage radiation therapy, and for patients without pathologic lymph nodes at initial lymph node dissection. Results: MRL detected positive lymph nodes in 47 patients. ROC analysis for the Stephenson nomogram yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.93). Of 29 patients with a PSA <1.0 ng/mL, 18 had a positive MRL. Of 37 patients without lymph node involvement at initial lymph node dissection, 25 had a positive MRL. ROC analysis for the Stephenson nomogram showed AUCs of 0.84 and 0.74, respectively, for these latter groups. Conclusion: MRL detected positive lymph nodes in 72% of candidates for salvage radiation therapy, in 62% of candidates for early salvage radiation therapy, and in 68% of initially node-negative patients. The Stephenson nomogram showed a good correlation with the MRL result and may thus be useful for identifying patients with a PSA recurrence who are at high risk for lymph node involvement.« less

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study.

PubMed

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log (des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment.

Clinical Nomograms to Predict Stone-Free Rates after Shock-Wave Lithotripsy: Development and Internal-Validation

PubMed Central

Kim, Jung Kwon; Ha, Seung Beom; Jeon, Chan Hoo; Oh, Jong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Oh, Seung-June; Kim, Hyeon Hoe; Jeong, Chang Wook

2016-01-01

Purpose Shock-wave lithotripsy (SWL) is accepted as the first line treatment modality for uncomplicated upper urinary tract stones; however, validated prediction models with regards to stone-free rates (SFRs) are still needed. We aimed to develop nomograms predicting SFRs after the first and within the third session of SWL. Computed tomography (CT) information was also modeled for constructing nomograms. Materials and Methods From March 2006 to December 2013, 3028 patients were treated with SWL for ureter and renal stones at our three tertiary institutions. Four cohorts were constructed: Total-development, Total-validation, CT-development, and CT-validation cohorts. The nomograms were developed using multivariate logistic regression models with selected significant variables in a univariate logistic regression model. A C-index was used to assess the discrimination accuracy of nomograms and calibration plots were used to analyze the consistency of prediction. Results The SFR, after the first and within the third session, was 48.3% and 68.8%, respectively. Significant variables were sex, stone location, stone number, and maximal stone diameter in the Total-development cohort, and mean Hounsfield unit (HU) and grade of hydronephrosis (HN) were additional parameters in the CT-development cohort. The C-indices were 0.712 and 0.723 for after the first and within the third session of SWL in the Total-development cohort, and 0.755 and 0.756, in the CT-development cohort, respectively. The calibration plots showed good correspondences. Conclusions We constructed and validated nomograms to predict SFR after SWL. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first graphical nomograms to be modeled with CT information. These may be useful for patient counseling and treatment decision-making. PMID:26890006

Multi-institutional external validation of seminal vesicle invasion nomograms: head-to-head comparison of Gallina nomogram versus 2007 Partin tables.

PubMed

Zorn, Kevin C; Capitanio, Umberto; Jeldres, Claudio; Arjane, Philippe; Perrotte, Paul; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lee, David I; Shalhav, Arieh L; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shikanov, Sergey A; Gofrit, Ofer N; Thong, Alan E; Albala, David M; Sun, Leon; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2009-04-01

The Partin tables represent one of the most widely used prostate cancer staging tools for seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) prediction. Recently, Gallina et al. reported a novel staging tool for the prediction of SVI that further incorporated the use of the percentage of positive biopsy cores. We performed an external validation of the Gallina et al. nomogram and the 2007 Partin tables in a large, multi-institutional North American cohort of men treated with robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy. Clinical and pathologic data were prospectively gathered from 2,606 patients treated with robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy at one of four North American robotic referral centers between 2002 and 2007. Discrimination was quantified with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. The calibration compared the predicted and observed SVI rates throughout the entire range of predictions. At robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy, SVI was recorded in 4.2% of patients. The discriminant properties of the Gallina et al. nomogram resulted in 81% accuracy compared with 78% for the 2007 Partin tables. The Gallina et al. nomogram overestimated the true rate of SVI. Conversely, the Partin tables underestimated the true rate of SVI. The Gallina et al. nomogram offers greater accuracy (81%) than the 2007 Partin tables (78%). However, both tools are associated with calibration limitations that need to be acknowledged and considered before their implementation into clinical practice.

Nomograms Predicting Progression-Free Survival, Overall Survival, and Pelvic Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Developed From an Analysis of Identifiable Prognostic Factors in Patients From NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group Randomized Trials of Chemoradiotherapy

PubMed Central

Rose, Peter G.; Java, James; Whitney, Charles W.; Stehman, Frederick B.; Lanciano, Rachelle; Thomas, Gillian M.; DiSilvestro, Paul A.

2015-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors in locally advanced cervical cancer limited to the pelvis and develop nomograms for 2-year progression-free survival (PFS), 5-year overall survival (OS), and pelvic recurrence. Patients and Methods We retrospectively reviewed 2,042 patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma enrolled onto Gynecologic Oncology Group clinical trials of concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nomograms for 2-year PFS, five-year OS, and pelvic recurrence were created as visualizations of Cox proportional hazards regression models. The models were validated by bootstrap-corrected, relatively unbiased estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results Multivariable analysis identified prognostic factors including histology, race/ethnicity, performance status, tumor size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, tumor grade, pelvic node status, and treatment with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy. PFS, OS, and pelvic recurrence nomograms had bootstrap-corrected concordance indices of 0.62, 0.64, and 0.73, respectively, and were well calibrated. Conclusion Prognostic factors were used to develop nomograms for 2-year PFS, 5-year OS, and pelvic recurrence for locally advanced cervical cancer clinically limited to the pelvis treated with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual and collective outcomes. PMID:25732170

Body Measurement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neufeld, K. Allen

1989-01-01

Described are activities for measuring the human body. The activities include measurements and calculations, calculating volume and density, problems related to body measurement, and using a nomogram. Several charts, illustrations, and a nomogram are provided. (YP)

Optimizing the clinical utility of PCA3 to diagnose prostate cancer in initial prostate biopsy.

PubMed

Rubio-Briones, Jose; Borque, Angel; Esteban, Luis M; Casanova, Juan; Fernandez-Serra, Antonio; Rubio, Luis; Casanova-Salas, Irene; Sanz, Gerardo; Domínguez-Escrig, Jose; Collado, Argimiro; Gómez-Ferrer, Alvaro; Iborra, Inmaculada; Ramírez-Backhaus, Miguel; Martínez, Francisco; Calatrava, Ana; Lopez-Guerrero, Jose A

2015-09-11

PCA3 has been included in a nomogram outperforming previous clinical models for the prediction of any prostate cancer (PCa) and high grade PCa (HGPCa) at the initial prostate biopsy (IBx). Our objective is to validate such IBx-specific PCA3-based nomogram. We also aim to optimize the use of this nomogram in clinical practice through the definition of risk groups. Independent external validation. Clinical and biopsy data from a contemporary cohort of 401 men with the same inclusion criteria to those used to build up the reference's nomogram in IBx. The predictive value of the nomogram was assessed by means of calibration curves and discrimination ability through the area under the curve (AUC). Clinical utility of the nomogram was analyzed by choosing thresholds points that minimize the overlapping between probability density functions (PDF) in PCa and no PCa and HGPCa and no HGPCa groups, and net benefit was assessed by decision curves. We detect 28% of PCa and 11 % of HGPCa in IBx, contrasting to the 46 and 20% at the reference series. Due to this, there is an overestimation of the nomogram probabilities shown in the calibration curve for PCa. The AUC values are 0.736 for PCa (C.I.95%:0.68-0.79) and 0.786 for HGPCa (C.I.95%:0.71-0.87) showing an adequate discrimination ability. PDF show differences in the distributions of nomogram probabilities in PCa and not PCa patient groups. A minimization of the overlapping between these curves confirms the threshold probability of harboring PCa >30 % proposed by Hansen is useful to indicate a IBx, but a cut-off > 40% could be better in series of opportunistic screening like ours. Similar results appear in HGPCa analysis. The decision curve also shows a net benefit of 6.31% for the threshold probability of 40%. PCA3 is an useful tool to select patients for IBx. Patients with a calculated probability of having PCa over 40% should be counseled to undergo an IBx if opportunistic screening is required.

Multi-Institutional External Validation of Seminal Vesicle Invasion Nomograms: Head-to-Head Comparison of Gallina Nomogram Versus 2007 Partin Tables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zorn, Kevin C.; Capitanio, Umberto; Jeldres, Claudio

2009-04-01

Purpose: The Partin tables represent one of the most widely used prostate cancer staging tools for seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) prediction. Recently, Gallina et al. reported a novel staging tool for the prediction of SVI that further incorporated the use of the percentage of positive biopsy cores. We performed an external validation of the Gallina et al. nomogram and the 2007 Partin tables in a large, multi-institutional North American cohort of men treated with robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy. Methods and Materials: Clinical and pathologic data were prospectively gathered from 2,606 patients treated with robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy at one of four Northmore » American robotic referral centers between 2002 and 2007. Discrimination was quantified with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. The calibration compared the predicted and observed SVI rates throughout the entire range of predictions. Results: At robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy, SVI was recorded in 4.2% of patients. The discriminant properties of the Gallina et al. nomogram resulted in 81% accuracy compared with 78% for the 2007 Partin tables. The Gallina et al. nomogram overestimated the true rate of SVI. Conversely, the Partin tables underestimated the true rate of SVI. Conclusion: The Gallina et al. nomogram offers greater accuracy (81%) than the 2007 Partin tables (78%). However, both tools are associated with calibration limitations that need to be acknowledged and considered before their implementation into clinical practice.« less

Development and External Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Metastatic Uveal Melanoma

PubMed Central

Valpione, Sara; Moser, Justin C.; Parrozzani, Raffaele; Bazzi, Marco; Mansfield, Aaron S.; Mocellin, Simone; Pigozzo, Jacopo; Midena, Edoardo; Markovic, Svetomir N.; Aliberti, Camillo; Campana, Luca G.; Chiarion-Sileni, Vanna

2015-01-01

Background Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM) will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM) is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV) (N=152) and Mayo Clinic (MC) (N=102), were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram. Results The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6), elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6), and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5) or 2–3 (HR 4.6) were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9). The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006) in the development dataset (IOV), and 0.80 (SE .009) in the external validation (MC). Nomogram predictions were well calibrated. Conclusions The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials. PMID:25780931

Nomogram for sample size calculation on a straightforward basis for the kappa statistic.

PubMed

Hong, Hyunsook; Choi, Yunhee; Hahn, Seokyung; Park, Sue Kyung; Park, Byung-Joo

2014-09-01

Kappa is a widely used measure of agreement. However, it may not be straightforward in some situation such as sample size calculation due to the kappa paradox: high agreement but low kappa. Hence, it seems reasonable in sample size calculation that the level of agreement under a certain marginal prevalence is considered in terms of a simple proportion of agreement rather than a kappa value. Therefore, sample size formulae and nomograms using a simple proportion of agreement rather than a kappa under certain marginal prevalences are proposed. A sample size formula was derived using the kappa statistic under the common correlation model and goodness-of-fit statistic. The nomogram for the sample size formula was developed using SAS 9.3. The sample size formulae using a simple proportion of agreement instead of a kappa statistic and nomograms to eliminate the inconvenience of using a mathematical formula were produced. A nomogram for sample size calculation with a simple proportion of agreement should be useful in the planning stages when the focus of interest is on testing the hypothesis of interobserver agreement involving two raters and nominal outcome measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Readmission in Patients Who Undergo General Surgery.

PubMed

Tevis, Sarah E; Weber, Sharon M; Kent, K Craig; Kennedy, Gregory D

2015-06-01

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have implemented penalties for hospitals with above-average readmission rates under the Hospital Readmissions Reductions Program. These changes will likely be extended to affect postoperative readmissions in the future. To identify variables that place patients at risk for readmission, develop a predictive nomogram, and validate this nomogram. Retrospective review and prospective validation of a predictive nomogram. A predictive nomogram was developed with the linear predictor method using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database paired with institutional billing data for patients who underwent nonemergent inpatient general surgery procedures. The nomogram was developed from August 1, 2006, through December 31, 2011, in 2799 patients and prospectively validated from November 1, 2013, through December 19, 2013, in 255 patients at a single academic institution. Area under the curve and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The outcome of interest was readmission within 30 days of discharge following an index hospitalization for a surgical procedure. Bleeding disorder (odds ratio, 2.549; 95% CI, 1.464-4.440), long operative time (odds ratio, 1.601; 95% CI, 1.186-2.160), in-hospital complications (odds ratio, 16.273; 95% CI, 12.028-22.016), dependent functional status, and the need for a higher level of care at discharge (odds ratio, 1.937; 95% CI, 1.176-3.190) were independently associated with readmission. The nomogram accurately predicted readmission (C statistic = 0.756) in a prospective evaluation. The negative predictive value was 97.9% in the prospective validation, while the positive predictive value was 11.1%. Development of an online calculator using this predictive model will allow us to identify patients who are at high risk for readmission at the time of discharge. Patients with increased risk may benefit from more intensive postoperative follow-up in the outpatient setting.

A nomogram incorporating six easily obtained parameters to discriminate intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Wang, Mengmeng; Gao, Yuzhen; Feng, Huijuan; Warner, Elisa; An, Mingrui; Jia, Jian'an; Chen, Shipeng; Fang, Meng; Ji, Jun; Gu, Xing; Gao, Chunfang

2018-03-01

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are the most prevalent histologic types of primary liver cancer (PLC). Although ICC and HCC share similar risk factors and clinical manifestations, ICC usually bears poorer prognosis than HCC. Confidently discriminating ICC and HCC before surgery is beneficial to both treatment and prognosis. Given the lack of effective differential diagnosis biomarkers and methods, construction of models based on available clinicopathological characteristics is in need. Nomograms present a simple and efficient way to make a discrimination. A total of 2894 patients who underwent surgery for PLC were collected. Of these, 1614 patients formed the training cohort for nomogram construction, and thereafter, 1280 patients formed the validation cohort to confirm the model's performance. Histopathologically confirmed ICC was diagnosed in 401 (24.8%) and 296 (23.1%) patients in these two cohorts, respectively. A nomogram integrating six easily obtained variables (Gender, Hepatitis B surface antigen, Aspartate aminotransferase, Alpha-fetoprotein, Carcinoembryonic antigen, Carbohydrate antigen 19-9) is proposed in accordance with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A score of 15 was determined as the cut-off value, and the corresponding discrimination efficacy was sufficient. Additionally, patients who scored higher than 15 suffered poorer prognosis than those with lower scores, regardless of the subtype of PLC. A nomogram for clinical discrimination of ICC and HCC has been established, where a higher score indicates ICC and poor prognosis. Further application of this nomogram in multicenter investigations may confirm the practicality of this tool for future clinical use. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Medico-economic impact of MSKCC non-sentinel node prediction nomogram for ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancers.

PubMed

Bonsang-Kitzis, Hélène; Mouttet-Boizat, Delphine; Guillot, Eugénie; Feron, Jean-Guillaume; Fourchotte, Virginie; Alran, Séverine; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Cottu, Paul; Lerebours, Florence; Stevens, Denise; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Sigal-Zafrani, Brigitte; Campana, François; Rouzier, Roman; Reyal, Fabien

2017-01-01

Avoiding axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for invasive breast cancers with isolated tumor cells or micrometastatic sentinel node biopsy (SNB) could decrease morbidity with minimal clinical significance. The aim of this study is to simulate the medico-economic impact of the routine use of the MSKCC non-sentinel node (NSN) prediction nomogram for ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients. We studied 1036 ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a metastatic SNB. All had a complementary ALND. For each patient, we calculated the probability of the NSN positivity using the MSKCC nomogram. After validation of this nomogram in the population, we described how the patients' characteristics spread as the threshold value changed. Then, we performed an economic simulation study to estimate the total cost of caring for patients treated according to the MSKCC predictive nomogram results. A 0.3 threshold discriminate the type of sentinel node (SN) metastases: 98.8% of patients with pN0(i+) and 91.6% of patients with pN1(mic) had a MSKCC score under 0.3 (false negative rate = 6.4%). If we use the 0.3 threshold for economic simulation, 43% of ALND could be avoided, reducing the costs of caring by 1 051 980 EUROS among the 1036 patients. We demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of using the MSKCC NSN prediction nomogram by avoiding ALND for the pN0(i+) or pN1(mic) ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a MSKCC score of less than or equal to 0.3.

Hypoalbuminemia, Low Base Excess Values, and Tachypnea Predict 28-Day Mortality in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Seo, Min Ho; Choa, Minhong; You, Je Sung; Lee, Hye Sun; Hong, Jung Hwa; Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; Park, Incheol

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to develop a new nomogram that can predict 28-day mortality in severe sepsis and/or septic shock patients using a combination of several biomarkers that are inexpensive and readily available in most emergency departments, with and without scoring systems. We enrolled 561 patients who were admitted to an emergency department (ED) and received early goal-directed therapy for severe sepsis or septic shock. We collected demographic data, initial vital signs, and laboratory data sampled at the time of ED admission. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set or validation set. For the training set, we generated models using independent variables associated with 28-day mortality by multivariate analysis, and developed a new nomogram for the prediction of 28-day mortality. Thereafter, the diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram was tested using the validation set. The prediction model that included albumin, base excess, and respiratory rate demonstrated the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.8173 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7605-0.8741]. The logistic analysis revealed that a conventional scoring system was not associated with 28-day mortality. In the validation set, the discrimination of a newly developed nomogram was also good, with an AUC value of 0.7537 (95% CI, 0.6563-0.8512). Our new nomogram is valuable in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with severe sepsis and/or septic shock in the emergency department. Moreover, our readily available nomogram is superior to conventional scoring systems in predicting mortality.

Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Hyun Jin; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Young Seok, E-mail: ysk@amc.seoul.kr

Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination andmore » calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis.« less

External validation of a nomogram for prediction of side-specific extracapsular extension at robotic radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Zorn, Kevin C; Gallina, Andrea; Hutterer, Georg C; Walz, Jochen; Shalhav, Arieh L; Zagaja, Gregory P; Valiquette, Luc; Gofrit, Ofer N; Orvieto, Marcelo A; Taxy, Jerome B; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2007-11-01

Several staging tools have been developed for open radical prostatectomy (ORP) patients. However, the validity of these tools has never been formally tested in patients treated with robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP). We tested the accuracy of an ORP-derived nomogram in predicting the rate of extracapsular extension (ECE) in a large RALP cohort. Serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) and side-specific clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum information were used in a previously validated nomogram predicting side-specific ECE. The nomogram-derived predictions were compared with the observed rate of ECE, and the accuracy of the predictions was quantified. Each prostate lobe was analyzed independently. As complete data were available for 576 patients, the analyses targeted 1152 prostate lobes. Median age and serum PSA concentration at radical prostatectomy were 60 years and 5.4 ng/mL, respectively. The majority of side-specific clinical stages were T(1c) (993; 86.2%). Most side-specific biopsy Gleason sums were 6 (572; 49.7%). The median side-specific percentages of positive cores and of cancer were, respectively, 20.0% and 5.0%. At final pathologic review, 107 patients (18.6%) had ECE, and side-specific ECE was present in 117 patients (20.3%). The nomogram was 89% accurate in the RALP cohort v 84% in the previously reported ORP validation. The ORP side-specific ECE nomogram is highly accurate in the RALP population, suggesting that predictive and possibly prognostic tools developed in ORP patients may be equally accurate in their RALP counterparts.

External validation of a published nomogram for prediction of brain metastasis in patients with extra-cerebral metastatic breast cancer and risk regression analysis.

PubMed

Genre, Ludivine; Roché, Henri; Varela, Léonel; Kanoun, Dorra; Ouali, Monia; Filleron, Thomas; Dalenc, Florence

2017-02-01

Survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) suffering from brain metastasis (BM) is limited and this event is usually fatal. In 2010, the Graesslin's nomogram was published in order to predict subsequent BM in patients with breast cancer (BC) with extra-cerebral metastatic disease. This model aims to select a patient population at high risk for BM and thus will facilitate the design of prevention strategies and/or the impact of early treatment of BM in prospective clinical studies. Nomogram external validation was retrospectively applied to patients with BC and later BM between January 2005 and December 2012, treated in our institution. Moreover, risk factors of BM appearance were studied by Fine and Gray's competing risk analysis. Among 492 patients with MBC, 116 developed subsequent BM. Seventy of them were included for the nomogram validation. The discrimination is good (area under curve = 0.695 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77]). Risk factors of BM appearance are: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) overexpression/amplification, triple-negative BC and number of extra-cerebral metastatic sites (>1). With a competing risk model, we highlight the nomogram interest for HER2+ tumour subgroup exclusively. Graesslin's nomogram external validation demonstrates exportability and reproducibility. Importantly, the competing risk model analysis provides additional information for the design of prospective trials concerning the early diagnosis of BM and/or preventive treatment on high risk patients with extra-cerebral metastatic BC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the contribution of patient-reported and clinician based variables for the prediction of low back work status.

PubMed

Heymans, Martijn W; Ford, Jon J; McMeeken, Joan M; Chan, Alexander; de Vet, Henrica C W; van Mechelen, Willem

2007-09-01

Successful management of workers on sick leave due to low back pain by the general physician and physiotherapist depends on reliable prognostic information on the course of low back pain and work resumption. Retrospective cohort study in 194 patients who were compensated because of chronic low back pain and who were treated by a physiotherapy functional restoration program. Patient-reported and clinician based prognostic indicators were assessed at baseline before patients entered the functional restoration program. We investigated the predictive value of these indicators on work status at 6 months. Relationships were studied using logistic regression analysis in a 2-step bootstrap modelling approach and a nomogram was developed. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram was evaluated internally and the explained variation of the nomogram calculated. Seventy percent of workers were back to work at 6 months. We found that including duration of complaints, functional disability, disc herniation and fear avoidance beliefs resulted in the "best" prognostic model. All these factors delayed work resumption. This model was used to construct a nomogram. The explained variation of the nomogram was 23.7%. Discrimination was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and was 0.76 and for calibration we used the slope estimate that was 0.91. The positive predictive values of the nomogram at different cut-off levels of predicted probability were good. Knowledge of the predictive value of these indicators by physicians and physiotherapists will help to identify subgroups of patients and will thus enhance clinical decision-making.

A nomogram for predicting complications in patients with solid tumours and seemingly stable febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Fonseca, Paula Jiménez; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; García, Ignacio Matos; Marcos, Rosana; Castañón, Eduardo; Antonio, Maite; Font, Carme; Biosca, Mercè; Blasco, Ana; Lozano, Rebeca; Ramchandani, Avinash; Beato, Carmen; de Castro, Eva Martínez; Espinosa, Javier; Martínez-García, Jerónimo; Ghanem, Ismael; Cubero, Jorge Hernando; Manrique, Isabel Aragón; Navalón, Francisco García; Sevillano, Elena; Manzano, Aránzazu; Virizuela, Juan; Garrido, Marcelo; Mondéjar, Rebeca; Arcusa, María Ángeles; Bonilla, Yaiza; Pérez, Quionia; Gallardo, Elena; Del Carmen Soriano, Maria; Cardona, Mercè; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Cruz, Juan Jesús; Ayala, Francisco

2016-05-24

We sought to develop and externally validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to individually predict the development of serious complications in seemingly stable adult patients with solid tumours and episodes of febrile neutropenia (FN). The data from the FINITE study (n=1133) and University of Salamanca Hospital (USH) FN registry (n=296) were used to develop and validate this tool. The main eligibility criterion was the presence of apparent clinical stability, defined as events without acute organ dysfunction, abnormal vital signs, or major infections. Discriminatory ability was measured as the concordance index and stratification into risk groups. The rate of infection-related complications in the FINITE and USH series was 13.4% and 18.6%, respectively. The nomogram used the following covariates: Eastern Cooperative Group (ECOG) Performance Status ⩾2, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiovascular disease, mucositis of grade ⩾2 (National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria), monocytes <200/mm(3), and stress-induced hyperglycaemia. The nomogram predictions appeared to be well calibrated in both data sets (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P>0.1). The concordance index was 0.855 and 0.831 in each series. Risk group stratification revealed a significant distinction in the proportion of complications. With a ⩾116-point cutoff, the nomogram yielded the following prognostic indices in the USH registry validation series: 66% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 3.88 positive likelihood ratio, 48% positive predictive value, and 91% negative predictive value. We have developed and externally validated a nomogram and web calculator to predict serious complications that can potentially impact decision-making in patients with seemingly stable FN.

Medico-economic impact of MSKCC non-sentinel node prediction nomogram for ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancers

PubMed Central

Guillot, Eugénie; Feron, Jean-Guillaume; Fourchotte, Virginie; Alran, Séverine; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Cottu, Paul; Lerebours, Florence; Stevens, Denise; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Sigal-Zafrani, Brigitte; Campana, François; Rouzier, Roman; Reyal, Fabien

2017-01-01

Background Avoiding axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for invasive breast cancers with isolated tumor cells or micrometastatic sentinel node biopsy (SNB) could decrease morbidity with minimal clinical significance. Purpose The aim of this study is to simulate the medico-economic impact of the routine use of the MSKCC non-sentinel node (NSN) prediction nomogram for ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients. Methods We studied 1036 ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a metastatic SNB. All had a complementary ALND. For each patient, we calculated the probability of the NSN positivity using the MSKCC nomogram. After validation of this nomogram in the population, we described how the patients’ characteristics spread as the threshold value changed. Then, we performed an economic simulation study to estimate the total cost of caring for patients treated according to the MSKCC predictive nomogram results. Results A 0.3 threshold discriminate the type of sentinel node (SN) metastases: 98.8% of patients with pN0(i+) and 91.6% of patients with pN1(mic) had a MSKCC score under 0.3 (false negative rate = 6.4%). If we use the 0.3 threshold for economic simulation, 43% of ALND could be avoided, reducing the costs of caring by 1 051 980 EUROS among the 1036 patients. Conclusion We demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of using the MSKCC NSN prediction nomogram by avoiding ALND for the pN0(i+) or pN1(mic) ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a MSKCC score of less than or equal to 0.3. PMID:28241044

Development of ProCaRS Clinical Nomograms for Biochemical Failure-free Survival Following Either Low-Dose Rate Brachytherapy or Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Warner, Andrew; Pickles, Tom; Crook, Juanita; Martin, Andre-Guy; Souhami, Luis; Catton, Charles; Lukka, Himu

2015-01-01

Purpose: Although several clinical nomograms predictive of biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS) for localized prostate cancer exist in the medical literature, making valid comparisons can be challenging due to variable definitions of biochemical failure, the disparate distribution of prognostic factors, and received treatments in patient populations. The aim of this investigation was to develop and validate clinically-based nomograms for 5-year BFFS using the ASTRO II “Phoenix” definition for two patient cohorts receiving low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) from a large Canadian multi-institutional database. Methods and Materials: Patients were selected from the GUROC (Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada) Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification (ProCaRS) database if they received (1) LDR brachytherapy ≥ 144 Gy (n=4208) or (2) EBRT ≥ 70 Gy  (n=822). Multivariable Cox regression analysis for BFFS was performed separately for each cohort and used to generate clinical nomograms predictive of 5-year BFFS. Nomograms were validated using calibration plots of nomogram predicted probability versus observed probability via Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results: Patients receiving LDR brachytherapy had a mean age of 64 ± 7 years, a mean baseline PSA of 6.3 ± 3.0 ng/mL, 75% had a Gleason 6, and 15% had a Gleason 7, whereas patients receiving EBRT had a mean age of 70 ± 6 years, a mean baseline PSA of 11.6 ± 10.7 ng/mL, 30% had a Gleason 6, 55% had a Gleason 7, and 14% had a Gleason 8-10. Nomograms for 5-year BFFS included age, use and duration of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), baseline PSA, T stage, and Gleason score for LDR brachytherapy and an ADT (months), baseline PSA, Gleason score, and biological effective dose (Gy) for EBRT. Conclusions: Clinical nomograms examining 5-year BFFS were developed for patients receiving either LDR brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated EBRT and may assist clinicians in predicting an outcome. Future work should be directed at examining the role of additional prognostic factors, comorbidities, and toxicity in predicting survival outcomes. PMID:26180700

Effectiveness and safety of a 10mg warfarin initiation nomogram in Asian population.

PubMed

Chandriah, Haarathi; Kumolosasi, Endang; Islahudin, Farida; Makmor-Bakry, Mohd

2015-05-01

Anticoagulant responses to warfarin vary among patients, based on genetic factors, diet, concomitant medications, and disease state. We evaluated the effectiveness and safety of a 10mg warfarin initiation nomogram in an Asian population. Retrospective cross-sectional audit studies were conducted from March 2009 to March 2010. The use of a 10mg-loading dose to initiate warfarin treatment resulted in 33(84.6%) patients attaining a therapeutic INR within four days (mean time, 2.6 days). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, race, and serum albumin for the time to reach a therapeutic INR. A significant correlation was noted for patient's baseline INR and time to reach a therapeutic INR (P<0.05). No significant differences were observed in time to reach a therapeutic INR in patients treated with specific class of concomitant drugs or patients with specific disease states. The overall incidence of over-anticoagulation was 35.9%; however, no bleeding episodes were encountered. In conclusion, the use of a 10mg warfarin nomogram was effective in rapidly achieving a therapeutic INR. However, the nomogram's safety is debatable owing to the high over-anticoagulation rate warfarin-administered patients. Caution is recommended in the initiation of warfarin treatment using the 10mg nomogram.

A new nomogram for prediction of outcome of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy.

PubMed

Dogan, Hasan Serkan; Altan, Mesut; Citamak, Burak; Bozaci, Ali Cansu; Karabulut, Erdem; Tekgul, Serdar

2015-04-01

Despite the fact that shock-wave lithotripsy (SWL) remains a very good treatment option for smaller stones, it is being challenged by endourologic treatment modalities, which offer similar or even higher success rates in a shorter time, with minimal morbidity and invasiveness. The present study aimed to bring a new and practical insight in order to predict the outcomes of pediatric SWL and to provide objective information about pediatric SWL outcomes. To design a nomogram for predicting the outcomes of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy. The study was conducted with a retrospective design and included 402 renal units who underwent SWL between January 2009 and August 2013. Patients with known cystine stone disease and cystinuria, with internal or external urinary diversion, were excluded. Analysis was performed on 383 renal units. Postoperative imaging was performed by plain abdominal graphy and ultrasonography with 3-month intervals. Patients who were completely free of stones were considered to be a success and statistical analysis was done regardingly Multivariate analysis was conducted by logistic regression analysis and a nomogram was developed. The male/female distribution was 216/167, with a mean age of 48 ± 40 months and a mean stone size of 9 ± 3.5 mm. The overall stone-free rate was 70% (270/383) and efficacy quotient was 0.57. Mean follow-up was 11 ± 11 months (3-54 months). The number of shock waves and amplitude of energy were higher in failed cases. Multivariate analysis showed that gender, stone size, number of stones, age, location of the stone, and history of previous intervention were found to be the independent prognostic factors for assessing the stone clearance rates. A nomogram was developed using these parameters. In this nomogram, the points achieved from each parameter are summed and total points correspond to the risk of failure in percent. A previous nomogram study by Onal et al. showed that younger age (<5 years), smaller stone burden (<1 cm), absence of previous stone treatment history, single stone, pelvis or upper ureter location (in girls) were favorable prognostic factors for successful outcome. As being the first pediatric study, it had some shortcomings. The study included 381 patients within a time period of 16 years. The present study included a similar number of cases within a 4-year period, which may reflect more homogeneity of data collection. Another issue is concern about the practical use of that nomogram. It constitutes two pages, which is a limiting factor for daily use. From a statistical point of view, they performed 200 bootstrapings with the aim of internal validation, which is less than the ideal number of 1000 bootstrapings, which was performed in the present nomogram. The presented nomogram is more practical, in that the pre-operative factors can be placed on the nomogram, the points can be added up and the parents can be given the approximate percentage of predicted stone-free rate after a single session. The expected treatment modality shown to the parents and patients ought to be the least minimally invasive, have the highest success rate, the least complication rate, and show the efficacy in one procedure at a time within the shortest period. However, SWL does not completely meet these criteria. The results gained from the present critical analysis of SWL in children, which was based on a strict definition of success, showed that outcome after a single session is not that good. Therefore, defining the patients who will benefit the most became one of the main issues. A more objective and skeptical look at SWL data enabled a nomogram to be developed that brings a new and practical insight in order to predict the outcomes of pediatric SWL. In most of the pediatric stone cases, SWL is the first-line treatment option. However, it is wise to define the patients who will benefit the most. Therefore, nomograms can be useful for this purpose. The nomogram in the present study revealed that gender, stone size, number of stones, age, location of the stone, and history of previous intervention were found to be the independent prognostic factors for assessing the stone clearance rates. This nomogram can practically be used to inform the parents, and for proper patient selection for SWL. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive factors of synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastases: Development of a nomogram and study of its utilities using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Mo, Shaobo; Dai, Weixing; Xiang, Wenqiang; Li, Qingguo; Wang, Renjie; Cai, Guoxiang

2018-05-03

The objective of this study was to summarize the clinicopathological and molecular features of synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastases (CPM). We then combined clinical and pathological variables associated with synchronous CPM into a nomogram and confirmed its utilities using decision curve analysis. Synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients who received primary tumor resection and underwent KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF gene mutation detection at our center from January 2014 to September 2015 were included in this retrospective study. An analysis was performed to investigate the clinicopathological and molecular features for independent risk factors of synchronous CPM and to subsequently develop a nomogram for synchronous CPM based on multivariate logistic regression. Model performance was quantified in terms of calibration and discrimination. We studied the utility of the nomogram using decision curve analysis. In total, 226 patients were diagnosed with synchronous mCRC, of whom 50 patients (22.1%) presented with CPM. After uni- and multivariate analysis, a nomogram was built based on tumor site, histological type, age, and T4 status. The model had good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) at 0.777 (95% CI 0.703-0.850) and adequate calibration. By decision curve analysis, the model was shown to be relevant between thresholds of 0.10 and 0.66. Synchronous CPM is more likely to happen to patients with age ≤60, right-sided primary lesions, signet ring cell cancer or T4 stage. This is the first nomogram to predict synchronous CPM. To ensure generalizability, this model needs to be externally validated. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining when to offer operative treatment for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A regret-based decision curves analysis.

PubMed

Bagante, Fabio; Spolverato, Gaya; Cucchetti, Alessandro; Gani, Faiz; Popescu, Irinel; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Marques, Hugo P; Aldrighetti, Luca; Gamblin, T Clark; Maithel, Shishir K; Sandroussi, Charbel; Bauer, Todd W; Shen, Feng; Poultsides, George A; Marsh, James Wallis; Guglielmi, Alfredo; Pawlik, Timothy M

2016-07-01

Regret-based decision curve analysis (DCA) is a framework that assesses the medical decision process according to physician attitudes (expected regret) relative to disease-based factors. We sought to apply this methodology to decisions around the operative management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Utilizing a multicentric database of 799 patients who underwent liver resection for ICC, we developed a prognostic nomogram. DCA tested 3 strategies: (1) perform an operation on all patients, (2) never perform an operation, and (3) use the nomogram to select patients for an operation. Four preoperative variables were included in the nomogram: major vascular invasion (HR = 1.36), tumor number (multifocal, HR = 1.18), tumor size (>5 cm, HR = 1.45), and suspicious lymph nodes on imaging (HR = 1.47; all P < .05). The regret-DCA was assessed using an online survey of 50 physicians, expert in the treatment of ICC. For a patient with a multifocal ICC, largest lesion measuring >5 cm, one suspicious malignant lymph node, and vascular invasion on imaging, the 1-year predicted survival was 52% according to the nomogram. Based on the therapeutic decision of the regret-DCA, 60% of physicians would advise against an operation for this scenario. Conversely, all physicians recommended an operation to a patient with an early ICC (single nodule measuring 3 cm, no suspicious lymph nodes, and no vascular invasion at imaging). By integrating a nomogram based on preoperative variables and a regret-based DCA, we were able to define the elements of how decisions rely on medical knowledge (postoperative survival predicted by a nomogram, severity disease assessment) and physician attitudes (regret of commission and omission). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STARTING-SICH Nomogram to Predict Symptomatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage After Intravenous Thrombolysis for Stroke.

PubMed

Cappellari, Manuel; Turcato, Gianni; Forlivesi, Stefano; Zivelonghi, Cecilia; Bovi, Paolo; Bonetti, Bruno; Toni, Danilo

2018-02-01

Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) is a rare but the most feared complication of intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of sICH in intravenous thrombolysis-treated stroke patients included in the multicenter SITS-ISTR (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register). All patients registered in the SITS-ISTR by 179 Italian centers between May 2001 and March 2016 were originally included. The main outcome measure was sICH per the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II definition (any type of intracerebral hemorrhage with increase of ≥4 National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score points from baseline or death <7 days). On the basis of multivariate logistic model, the nomogram was generated. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A total of 15 949 patients with complete data for generating the nomogram was randomly dichotomized into training (3/4; n=12 030) and test (1/4; n=3919) sets. After multivariate logistic regression, 10 variables remained independent predictors of sICH to compose the STARTING-SICH (systolic blood pressure, age, onset-to-treatment time for thrombolysis, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, glucose, aspirin alone, aspirin plus clopidogrel, anticoagulant with INR ≤1.7, current infarction sign, hyperdense artery sign) nomogram. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of STARTING-SICH was 0.739. Calibration was good ( P =0.327 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). The STARTING-SICH is the first nomogram developed and validated in a large SITS-ISTR cohort for individualized prediction of sICH in intravenous thrombolysis-treated stroke patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

PREOPERATIVE MRI IMPROVES PREDICTION OF EXTENSIVE OCCULT AXILLARY LYMPH NODE METASTASES IN BREAST CANCER PATIENTS WITH A POSITIVE SENTINEL LYMPH NODE BIOPSY

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Christopher; Eby, Peter R.; Kim, Janice N.; Calhoun, Kristine E.; Allison, Kimberly H.; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K.; Peacock, Sue; Storer, Barry; Mankoff, David A.; Partridge, Savannah C.; Lehman, Constance D.

2014-01-01

Rationale and Objectives To test the ability of quantitative measures from preoperative Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) to predict, independently and/or with the Katz pathologic nomogram, which breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy will have ≥ 4 positive axillary lymph nodes upon completion axillary dissection. Methods and Materials A retrospective review was conducted to identify clinically node-negative invasive breast cancer patients who underwent preoperative DCE-MRI, followed by sentinel node biopsy with positive findings and complete axillary dissection (6/2005 – 1/2010). Clinical/pathologic factors, primary lesion size and quantitative DCE-MRI kinetics were collected from clinical records and prospective databases. DCE-MRI parameters with univariate significance (p < 0.05) to predict ≥ 4 positive axillary nodes were modeled with stepwise regression and compared to the Katz nomogram alone and to a combined MRI-Katz nomogram model. Results Ninety-eight patients with 99 positive sentinel biopsies met study criteria. Stepwise regression identified DCE-MRI total persistent enhancement and volume adjusted peak enhancement as significant predictors of ≥4 metastatic nodes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the Katz nomogram, 0.79 for the DCE-MRI multivariate model, and 0.87 for the combined MRI-Katz model. The combined model was significantly more predictive than the Katz nomogram alone (p = 0.003). Conclusion Integration of DCE-MRI primary lesion kinetics significantly improved the Katz pathologic nomogram accuracy to predict presence of metastases in ≥ 4 nodes. DCE-MRI may help identify sentinel node positive patients requiring further localregional therapy. PMID:24331270

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for terminally ill cancer patients.

PubMed

Feliu, Jaime; Jiménez-Gordo, Ana María; Madero, Rosario; Rodríguez-Aizcorbe, José Ramón; Espinosa, Enrique; Castro, Javier; Acedo, Jesús Domingo; Martínez, Beatriz; Alonso-Babarro, Alberto; Molina, Raquel; Cámara, Juan Carlos; García-Paredes, María Luisa; González-Barón, Manuel

2011-11-02

Determining life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the length of survival in patients with terminal disease. From February 1, 2003, to December 31, 2005, 406 consecutive terminally ill patients were entered into the study. We analyzed 38 features prognostic of life expectancy among terminally ill patients by multivariable Cox regression and identified the most accurate and parsimonious model by backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion. Five clinical and laboratory variables were built into a nomogram to estimate the probability of patient survival at 15, 30, and 60 days. We validated and calibrated the nomogram with an external validation cohort of 474 patients who were treated from June 1, 2006, through December 31, 2007. The median overall survival was 29.1 days for the training set and 18.3 days for the validation set. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, lymphocyte levels, albumin levels, and time from initial diagnosis to diagnosis of terminal disease were retained in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model as independent prognostic factors of survival and formed the basis of the nomogram. The nomogram had high predictive performance, with a bootstrapped corrected concordance index of 0.70, and it showed good calibration. External independent validation revealed 68% predictive accuracy. We developed a highly accurate tool that uses basic clinical and analytical information to predict the probability of survival at 15, 30, and 60 days in terminally ill cancer patients. This tool can help physicians making decisions on clinical care at the end of life.

Configuration and validation of a novel prostate disease nomogram predicting prostate biopsy outcome: A prospective study correlating clinical indicators among Filipino adult males with elevated PSA level.

PubMed

Chua, Michael E; Tanseco, Patrick P; Mendoza, Jonathan S; Castillo, Josefino C; Morales, Marcelino L; Luna, Saturnino L

2015-04-01

To configure and validate a novel prostate disease nomogram providing prostate biopsy outcome probabilities from a prospective study correlating clinical indicators and diagnostic parameters among Filipino adult male with elevated serum total prostate specific antigen (PSA) level. All men with an elevated serum total PSA underwent initial prostate biopsy at our institution from January 2011 to August 2014 were included. Clinical indicators, diagnostic parameters, which include PSA level and PSA-derivatives, were collected as predictive factors for biopsy outcome. Multiple logistic-regression analysis involving a backward elimination selection procedure was used to select independent predictors. A nomogram was developed to calculate the probability of the biopsy outcomes. External validation of the nomogram was performed using separate data set from another center for determination of sensitivity and specificity. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the accuracy in predicting differential biopsy outcome. Total of 552 patients was included. One hundred and ninety-one (34.6%) patients had benign prostatic hyperplasia, and 165 (29.9%) had chronic prostatitis. The remaining 196 (35.5%) patients had prostate adenocarcinoma. The significant independent variables used to predict biopsy outcome were age, family history of prostate cancer, prior antibiotic intake, PSA level, PSA-density, PSA-velocity, echogenic findings on ultrasound, and DRE status. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for prostate cancer using PSA alone and the nomogram were 0.688 and 0.804, respectively. The nomogram configured based on routinely available clinical parameters, provides high predictive accuracy with good performance characteristics in predicting the prostate biopsy outcome such as presence of prostate cancer, high Gleason prostate cancer, benign prostatic hyperplasia, and chronic prostatitis.

A nomogram for predicting complications in patients with solid tumours and seemingly stable febrile neutropenia

PubMed Central

Fonseca, Paula Jiménez; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; García, Ignacio Matos; Marcos, Rosana; Castañón, Eduardo; Antonio, Maite; Font, Carme; Biosca, Mercè; Blasco, Ana; Lozano, Rebeca; Ramchandani, Avinash; Beato, Carmen; de Castro, Eva Martínez; Espinosa, Javier; Martínez-García, Jerónimo; Ghanem, Ismael; Cubero, Jorge Hernando; Manrique, Isabel Aragón; Navalón, Francisco García; Sevillano, Elena; Manzano, Aránzazu; Virizuela, Juan; Garrido, Marcelo; Mondéjar, Rebeca; Arcusa, María Ángeles; Bonilla, Yaiza; Pérez, Quionia; Gallardo, Elena; del Carmen Soriano, Maria; Cardona, Mercè; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Cruz, Juan Jesús; Ayala, Francisco

2016-01-01

Background: We sought to develop and externally validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to individually predict the development of serious complications in seemingly stable adult patients with solid tumours and episodes of febrile neutropenia (FN). Patients and methods: The data from the FINITE study (n=1133) and University of Salamanca Hospital (USH) FN registry (n=296) were used to develop and validate this tool. The main eligibility criterion was the presence of apparent clinical stability, defined as events without acute organ dysfunction, abnormal vital signs, or major infections. Discriminatory ability was measured as the concordance index and stratification into risk groups. Results: The rate of infection-related complications in the FINITE and USH series was 13.4% and 18.6%, respectively. The nomogram used the following covariates: Eastern Cooperative Group (ECOG) Performance Status ⩾2, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiovascular disease, mucositis of grade ⩾2 (National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria), monocytes <200/mm3, and stress-induced hyperglycaemia. The nomogram predictions appeared to be well calibrated in both data sets (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, P>0.1). The concordance index was 0.855 and 0.831 in each series. Risk group stratification revealed a significant distinction in the proportion of complications. With a ⩾116-point cutoff, the nomogram yielded the following prognostic indices in the USH registry validation series: 66% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 3.88 positive likelihood ratio, 48% positive predictive value, and 91% negative predictive value. Conclusions: We have developed and externally validated a nomogram and web calculator to predict serious complications that can potentially impact decision-making in patients with seemingly stable FN. PMID:27187687

What is the quickest scoring system to predict percutaneous nephrolithotomy outcomes? A comparative study among S.T.O.N.E score, guy's stone score and croes nomogram.

PubMed

Vicentini, Fabio C; Serzedello, Felipe R; Thomas, Kay; Marchini, Giovanni S; Torricelli, Fabio C M; Srougi, Miguel; Mazzucchi, Eduardo

2017-01-01

To compare the application time and the capacity of the nomograms to predict the success of Guy's Stone Score (GSS), S.T.O.N.E. Nephrolithometry (STONE) and Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society nephrolithometric nomogram (CROES) of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), evaluating the most efficient one for clinical use. We studied 48 patients who underwent PCNL by the same surgeon between 2010 and 2011. We calculated GSS, STONE and CROES based on preoperative non-contrast computed tomography (CT) images and clinical data. A single observer, blinded to the outcomes, reviewed all images and assigned scores. We compared the application time of each nomogram. We used an analysis of variance for repeated measures and multiple comparisons by the Tukey test. We compared the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the three nomograms two by two to determine the most predictive scoring system. The immediate success rate was 66.7% and complications occurred in 16.7% of cases. The average operative time was 122 minutes. Mean application time was significantly lower for the GSS (27.5 seconds) when compared to 300.6 seconds for STONE and 213.4 seconds for CROES (p<0.001). There was no significant difference among the GSS (AUC=0.653), STONE (AUC=0.563) and CROES (AUC=0.641) in the ability to predict immediate success of PCNL. All three nomograms showed similar ability to predict success of PCNL, however the GSS was the quickest to be applied, what is an important issue for routine clinical use when counseling patients who are candidates to PCNL. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

What is the quickest scoring system to predict percutaneous nephrolithotomy outcomes? A comparative study among S.T.O.N.E score, Guy's Stone Ccore and CROES nomogram

PubMed Central

Vicentini, Fabio C.; Serzedello, Felipe R.; Thomas, Kay; Marchini, Giovanni S.; Torricelli, Fabio C. M.; Srougi, Miguel; Mazzucchi, Eduardo

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To compare the application time and the capacity of the nomograms to predict the success of Guy's Stone Score (GSS), S.T.O.N.E. Nephrolithometry (STONE) and Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society nephrolithometric nomogram (CROES) of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), evaluating the most efficient one for clinical use. Materials and Methods: We studied 48 patients who underwent PCNL by the same surgeon between 2010 and 2011. We calculated GSS, STONE and CROES based on pre-operative non-contrast computed tomography (CT) images and clinical data. A single observer, blinded to the outcomes, reviewed all images and assigned scores. We compared the application time of each nomogram. We used an analysis of variance for repeated measures and multiple comparisons by the Tukey test. We compared the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the three nomograms two by two to determine the most predictive scoring system. Results: The immediate success rate was 66.7% and complications occurred in 16.7% of cases. The average operative time was 122 minutes. Mean application time was significantly lower for the GSS (27.5 seconds) when compared to 300.6 seconds for STONE and 213.4 seconds for CROES (p<0.001). There was no significant difference among the GSS (AUC=0.653), STONE (AUC=0.563) and CROES (AUC=0.641) in the ability to predict immediate success of PCNL. Conclusions: All three nomograms showed similar ability to predict success of PCNL, however the GSS was the quickest to be applied, what is an important issue for routine clinical use when counseling patients who are candidates to PCNL. PMID:28338303

Creation and validation of the Singapore birth nomograms for birth weight, length and head circumference based on a 12-year birth cohort.

PubMed

Poon, Woei Bing; Fook-Chong, Stephanie M C; Ler, Grace Y L; Loh, Zhi Wen; Yeo, Cheo Lian

2014-06-01

Both gestation and birth weight have significant impact on mortality and morbidity in newborn infants. Nomograms at birth allow classification of infants into small for gestational age (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) categories, for risk stratification and more intensive monitoring. To date, the growth charts for preterm newborn infants in Singapore are based on the Fenton growth charts, which are constructed based on combining data from various Western growth cohorts. Hence, we aim to create Singapore nomograms for birth weight, length and head circumference at birth, which would reflect the norms and challenges faced by local infants. Growth parameters of all babies born or admitted to our unit from 2001 to 2012 were retrieved. Following exclusion of outliers, nomograms for 3 percentiles of 10th, 50th, and 90th were generated for the gestational age (GA) ranges of 25 to 42 weeks using quantile regression (QR) combined with the use of restricted cubic splines. Various polynomial models (second to third degrees) were investigated for suitability of fit. The optimum QR model was found to be a third degree polynomial with a single knotted cubic spline in the mid-point of the GA range, at 33.5 weeks. Check for goodness of fit was done by visual inspection first. Next, check was performed to ensure the correct proportion: 10% of all cases fall above the upper 90th percentile and 10% fall below the lower 10th percentile. Furthermore, an alternative formula-based method of nomogram construction, using mean, standard deviation (SD) and assumption of normality at each gestational age, was used for counterchecking. A total of 13,403 newborns were included in the analysis. The new infant-foetal growth charts with respect to birth weight, heel-crown length and occipitofrontal circumference from 25 to 42 weeks gestations with the 10th, 50th and 90th were presented. Nomograms for birth weight, length and head circumference at birth had significant impact on neonatal practice and validation of the Singapore birth nomograms against Fenton growth charts showed better sensitivity and comparable specificity, positive and negative predictive values.

The roles of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density, prostate volume, and their zone-adjusted derivatives in predicting prostate cancer in patients with PSA less than 20.0 ng/mL.

PubMed

Shen, P; Zhao, J; Sun, G; Chen, N; Zhang, X; Gui, H; Yang, Y; Liu, J; Shu, K; Wang, Z; Zeng, H

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to develop nomograms for predicting prostate cancer and its zonal location using prostate-specific antigen density, prostate volume, and their zone-adjusted derivatives. A total of 928 consecutive patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) less than 20.0 ng/mL, who underwent transrectal ultrasound-guided transperineal 12-core prostate biopsy at West China Hospital between 2011 and 2014, were retrospectively enrolled. The patients were randomly split into training cohort (70%, n = 650) and validation cohort (30%, n = 278). Predicting models and the associated nomograms were built using the training cohort, while the validations of the models were conducted using the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed. Then, new nomograms were generated based on multivariate regression coefficients. The discrimination power and calibration of these nomograms were validated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the calibration curve. The potential clinical effects of these models were also tested using decision curve analysis. In total, 285 (30.7%) patients were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Among them, 131 (14.1%) and 269 (29.0%) had transition zone prostate cancer and peripheral zone prostate cancer. Each of zone-adjusted derivatives-based nomogram had an AUC more than 0.75. All nomograms had higher calibration and much better net benefit than the scenarios in predicting patients with or without different zones prostate cancer. Prostate-specific antigen density, prostate volume, and their zone-adjusted derivatives have important roles in detecting prostate cancer and its zonal location for patients with PSA 2.5-20.0 ng/mL. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first nomogram using these parameters to predict outcomes of 12-core prostate biopsy. These instruments can help clinicians to increase the accuracy of prostate cancer screening and to avoid unnecessary prostate biopsy. © 2017 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

SU-G-201-15: Nomogram as an Efficient Dosimetric Verification Tool in HDR Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liang, J; Todor, D

Purpose: Nomogram as a simple QA tool for HDR prostate brachytherapy treatment planning has been developed and validated clinically. Reproducibility including patient-to-patient and physician-to-physician variability was assessed. Methods: The study was performed on HDR prostate implants from physician A (n=34) and B (n=15) using different implant techniques and planning methodologies. A nomogram was implemented as an independent QA of computer-based treatment planning before plan execution. Normalized implant strength (total air kerma strength Sk*t in cGy cm{sup 2} divided by prescribed dose in cGy) was plotted as a function of PTV volume and total V100. A quadratic equation was used tomore » fit the data with R{sup 2} denoting the model predictive power. Results: All plans showed good target coverage while OARs met the dose constraint guidelines. Vastly different implant and planning styles were reflected on conformity index (entire dose matrix V100/PTV volume, physician A implants: 1.27±0.14, physician B: 1.47±0.17) and PTV V150/PTV volume ratio (physician A: 0.34±0.09, physician B: 0.24±0.07). The quadratic model provided a better fit for the curved relationship between normalized implant strength and total V100 (or PTV volume) than a simple linear function. Unlike the normalized implant strength versus PTV volume nomogram which differed between physicians, a unique quadratic model based nomogram (Sk*t)/D=−0.0008V2+0.0542V+1.1185 (R{sup 2}=0.9977) described the dependence of normalized implant strength on total V100 over all the patients from both physicians despite two different implant and planning philosophies. Normalized implant strength - total V100 model also generated less deviant points distorting the smoothed ones with a significantly higher correlation. Conclusion: A simple and universal, excel-based nomogram was created as an independent calculation tool for HDR prostate brachytherapy. Unlike similar attempts, our nomogram is insensitive to implant style and does not rely on reproducing dose calculations using TG-43 formalism, thus making it a truly independent check.« less

Use of a Simplified Nomogram to Individualize Digoxin Dosing versus Standard Dosing Practices in Patients with Heart Failure

PubMed Central

DiDomenico, Robert J.; Bress, Adam P.; Na-Thalang, Kwanta; Tsao, Yvonne Y.; Groo, Vicki L.; Deyo, Kelly L.; Patel, Shitalben R.; Bishop, Jeffrey R.; Bauman, Jerry L.

2014-01-01

Study Objectives To compare the frequency of achieving a therapeutic serum digoxin concentration (SDC), defined as 0.5–0.9 ng/ml, by using a simplified nomogram to individualize digoxin dosing with standard dosing practices in patients with heart failure, and to characterize the relationship between genetic polymorphisms of the ABCB1 gene and SDC. Design Prospective study with a historical control group. Setting Outpatient care center of an urban academic medical center. Patients One hundred thirty-one adults with heart failure due to left ventricular dysfunction who were treated with digoxin. Intervention Digoxin doses were determined either by the dosing nomogram (65 patients) or standard care (SC; 66 patients) by using a historical controls who were randomly selected from a list of SDCs obtained from laboratory records and who had their digoxin doses determined by standard dosing practices. Measurements and Main Results The primary end point was the proportion of patients achieving a steady-state SDC of 0.5–0.9 ng/ml; secondary end points were mean SDC and proportion of patients achieving a steady-state SDC < 1.0 ng/ml. Postdistributive steady-state SDCs were measured 2–4 weeks after digoxin dosage adjustment or initiation. Therapeutic SDCs were achieved with similar frequency in both groups (38.7% in the nomogram group vs. 34.5% in the SC group, p=0.65); however, more patients in the nomogram group had SDCs < 1.0 ng/ml than in the SC group (85.0% vs. 44.9%, p<0.001). Mean daily digoxin doses were lower in nomogram group (149 ± 67 mcg vs. 177 ± 74 mcg, p=0.02), resulting in lower mean SDCs compared with those in the SC group (0.52 ± 0.30 ng/ml vs. 1.12 ± 0.58 ng/ml, p<0.001). Patients in the pharmacogenetic substudy provided blood samples for genotyping of three common ABCB1 single nucleotide polymorphisms: C1236T (rs1128503), G2677T/A (rs2032582), and C3435T (rs1045642). SDCs were not significantly associated with ABCB1 genotypes. Conclusion Our simplified digoxin dosing nomogram resulted in lower SDCs compared with standard dosing practices but achieved therapeutic SDCs with similar frequency. A greater proportion of patients dosed according to our nomogram had SDCs < 1.0 ng/ml, consistent with consensus guidelines. Genetic polymorphisms of the ABCB1 gene were not associated with SDC. PMID:25164709

Am I normal? A systematic review and construction of nomograms for flaccid and erect penis length and circumference in up to 15,521 men.

PubMed

Veale, David; Miles, Sarah; Bramley, Sally; Muir, Gordon; Hodsoll, John

2015-06-01

To systematically review and create nomograms of flaccid and erect penile size measurements. Study key eligibility criteria: measurement of penis size by a health professional using a standard procedure; a minimum of 50 participants per sample. samples with a congenital or acquired penile abnormality, previous surgery, complaint of small penis size or erectile dysfunction. Synthesis methods: calculation of a weighted mean and pooled standard deviation (SD) and simulation of 20,000 observations from the normal distribution to generate nomograms of penis size. Nomograms for flaccid pendulous [n = 10,704, mean (SD) 9.16 (1.57) cm] and stretched length [n = 14,160, mean (SD) 13.24 (1.89) cm], erect length [n = 692, mean (SD) 13.12 (1.66) cm], flaccid circumference [n = 9407, mean (SD) 9.31 (0.90) cm], and erect circumference [n = 381, mean (SD) 11.66 (1.10) cm] were constructed. Consistent and strongest significant correlation was between flaccid stretched or erect length and height, which ranged from r = 0.2 to 0.6. relatively few erect measurements were conducted in a clinical setting and the greatest variability between studies was seen with flaccid stretched length. Penis size nomograms may be useful in clinical and therapeutic settings to counsel men and for academic research. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

Risk factors and nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitis: A cohort of 1998 patients.

PubMed

Hao, Lu; Pan, Jun; Wang, Dan; Bi, Ya-Wei; Ji, Jun-Tao; Xin, Lei; Liao, Zhuan; Du, Ting-Ting; Lin, Jin-Huan; Zhang, Di; Zeng, Xiang-Peng; Ye, Bo; Zou, Wen-Bin; Chen, Hui; Xie, Ting; Li, Bai-Rong; Zheng, Zhao-Hong; Hu, Liang-Hao; Li, Zhao-Shen

2017-07-01

Pancreatic pseudocyst is a common complication of chronic pancreatitis. The identification of risk factors and development of a nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitis patients may contribute to the early diagnosis and intervention of pancreatic pseudocysts. Patients with chronic pancreatitis admitted to our center from January 2000 to December 2013 were enrolled. Cumulative rates of pancreatic pseudocysts after the onset of chronic pancreatitis and after the diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis were calculated. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to the training and validation cohort. Based on the training cohort, risk factors were identified through Cox proportional hazards regression model, and nomogram was developed. Internal and external validations were performed based on the training and validation cohort, respectively. With a total of 1998 patients, pancreatic pseudocysts were detected in 228 (11.41%) patients. Age at the onset of chronic pancreatitis, smoking, and severe acute pancreatitis were identified risk factors for pancreatic pseudocysts development while steatorrhea and pancreatic stones were protective factors. Incorporating these five factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.735 and 0.628 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves. The nomogram achieved an individualized prediction of pancreatic pseudocysts development in chronic pancreatitis. It may help the early diagnosis and management of pancreatic pseudocysts. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A prospectively validated nomogram for predicting the risk of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Bozcuk, H; Yıldız, M; Artaç, M; Kocer, M; Kaya, Ç; Ulukal, E; Ay, S; Kılıç, M P; Şimşek, E H; Kılıçkaya, P; Uçar, S; Coskun, H S; Savas, B

2015-06-01

There is clinical need to predict risk of febrile neutropenia before a specific cycle of chemotherapy in cancer patients. Data on 3882 chemotherapy cycles in 1089 consecutive patients with lung, breast, and colon cancer from four teaching hospitals were used to construct a predictive model for febrile neutropenia. A final nomogram derived from the multivariate predictive model was prospectively confirmed in a second cohort of 960 consecutive cases and 1444 cycles. The following factors were used to construct the nomogram: previous history of febrile neutropenia, pre-cycle lymphocyte count, type of cancer, cycle of current chemotherapy, and patient age. The predictive model had a concordance index of 0.95 (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.91-0.99) in the derivation cohort and 0.85 (95 % CI = 0.80-0.91) in the external validation cohort. A threshold of 15 % for the risk of febrile neutropenia in the derivation cohort was associated with a sensitivity of 0.76 and specificity of 0.98. These figures were 1.00 and 0.49 in the validation cohort if a risk threshold of 50 % was chosen. This nomogram is helpful in the prediction of febrile neutropenia after chemotherapy in patients with lung, breast, and colon cancer. Usage of this nomogram may help decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with febrile neutropenia and deserves further validation.

Estimating the impact of adopting the revised United Kingdom acetaminophen treatment nomogram in the U.S. population.

PubMed

Levine, Michael; Stellpflug, Sam; Pizon, Anthony F; Traub, Stephen; Vohra, Rais; Wiegand, Timothy; Traub, Nicole; Tashman, David; Desai, Shoma; Chang, Jamie; Nathwani, Dhruv; Thomas, Stephen

2017-07-01

Acetaminophen toxicity is common in clinical practice. In recent years, several European countries have lowered the treatment threshold, which has resulted in increased number of patients being treated at a questionable clinical benefit. The primary objective of this study is to estimate the cost and associated burden to the United States (U.S.) healthcare system, if such a change were adopted in the U.S. This study is a retrospective review of all patients age 14 years or older who were admitted to one of eight different hospitals located throughout the U.S. with acetaminophen exposures during a five and a half year span, encompassing from 1 January 2008 to 30 June 2013. Those patients who would be treated with the revised nomogram, but not the current nomogram were included. The cost of such treatment was extrapolated to a national level. 139 subjects were identified who would be treated with the revised nomogram, but not the current nomogram. Extrapolating these numbers nationally, an additional 4507 (95%CI 3641-8751) Americans would be treated annually for acetaminophen toxicity. The cost of lowering the treatment threshold is estimated to be $45 million (95%CI 36,400,000-87,500,000) annually. Adopting the revised treatment threshold in the U.S. would result in a significant cost, yet provide an unclear clinical benefit.

Drawing Nomograms with R: applications to categorical outcome and survival data.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Kattan, Michael W

2017-05-01

Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.

Widen NomoGram for multinomial logistic regression: an application to staging liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

PubMed

Ardoino, Ilaria; Lanzoni, Monica; Marano, Giuseppe; Boracchi, Patrizia; Sagrini, Elisabetta; Gianstefani, Alice; Piscaglia, Fabio; Biganzoli, Elia M

2017-04-01

The interpretation of regression models results can often benefit from the generation of nomograms, 'user friendly' graphical devices especially useful for assisting the decision-making processes. However, in the case of multinomial regression models, whenever categorical responses with more than two classes are involved, nomograms cannot be drawn in the conventional way. Such a difficulty in managing and interpreting the outcome could often result in a limitation of the use of multinomial regression in decision-making support. In the present paper, we illustrate the derivation of a non-conventional nomogram for multinomial regression models, intended to overcome this issue. Although it may appear less straightforward at first sight, the proposed methodology allows an easy interpretation of the results of multinomial regression models and makes them more accessible for clinicians and general practitioners too. Development of prediction model based on multinomial logistic regression and of the pertinent graphical tool is illustrated by means of an example involving the prediction of the extent of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C patients by routinely available markers.

A Web-based nomogram predicting para-aortic nodal metastasis in incompletely staged patients with endometrial cancer: a Korean Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Kang, Sokbom; Lee, Jong-Min; Lee, Jae-Kwan; Kim, Jae-Weon; Cho, Chi-Heum; Kim, Seok-Mo; Park, Sang-Yoon; Park, Chan-Yong; Kim, Ki-Tae

2014-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a Web-based nomogram for predicting the individualized risk of para-aortic nodal metastasis in incompletely staged patients with endometrial cancer. From 8 institutions, the medical records of 397 patients who underwent pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy as a surgical staging procedure were retrospectively reviewed. A multivariate logistic regression model was created and internally validated by rigorous bootstrap resampling methods. Finally, the model was transformed into a user-friendly Web-based nomogram (http://http://www.kgog.org/nomogram/empa001.html). The rate of para-aortic nodal metastasis was 14.4% (57/397 patients). Using a stepwise variable selection, 4 variables including deep myometrial invasion, non-endometrioid subtype, lymphovascular space invasion, and log-transformed CA-125 levels were finally adopted. After 1000 repetitions of bootstrapping, all of these 4 variables retained a significant association with para-aortic nodal metastasis in the multivariate analysis-deep myometrial invasion (P = 0.001), non-endometrioid histologic subtype (P = 0.034), lymphovascular space invasion (P = 0.003), and log-transformed serum CA-125 levels (P = 0.004). The model showed good discrimination (C statistics = 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.92) and accurate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.74). This nomogram showed good performance in predicting para-aortic metastasis in patients with endometrial cancer. The tool may be useful in determining the extent of lymphadenectomy after incomplete surgery.

Nomograms Predicting Platinum Sensitivity, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival Using Pretreatment Complete Blood Cell Counts in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Paik, E Sun; Sohn, Insuk; Baek, Sun-Young; Shim, Minhee; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kim, Tae-Joong; Choi, Chel Hun; Lee, Jeong-Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Lee, Yoo-Young; Bae, Duk-Soo

2017-01-01

Purpose This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre-treatment complete blood cell count (CBC), including white blood cell (WBC) differential, in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients with primary debulking surgery (PDS) and to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of 757 patients with EOC whose primary treatment consisted of surgical debulking and chemotherapy at Samsung Medical Center from 2002 to 2012. We subsequently created nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS as prediction models for prognostic variables including age, stage, grade, cancer antigen 125 level, residual disease after PDS, and pre-treatment WBC differential counts. The models were then validated by 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results In addition to stage and residual disease after PDS, which are known predictors, lymphocyte and monocyte count were found to be significant prognostic factors for platinum-sensitivity, platelet count for PFS, and neutrophil count for OS on multivariate analysis. The area under the curves of platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS calculated by the 10-fold CV procedure were 0.7405, 0.8159, and 0.815, respectively. Conclusion Prognostic factors including pre-treatment CBC were used to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS of patients with EOC. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual outcomes. PMID:27669704

Nomograms Predicting Platinum Sensitivity, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival Using Pretreatment Complete Blood Cell Counts in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

PubMed

Paik, E Sun; Sohn, Insuk; Baek, Sun-Young; Shim, Minhee; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kim, Tae-Joong; Choi, Chel Hun; Lee, Jeong-Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Lee, Yoo-Young; Bae, Duk-Soo

2017-07-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre-treatment complete blood cell count (CBC), including white blood cell (WBC) differential, in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients with primary debulking surgery (PDS) and to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 757 patients with EOC whose primary treatment consisted of surgical debulking and chemotherapy at Samsung Medical Center from 2002 to 2012. We subsequently created nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS as prediction models for prognostic variables including age, stage, grade, cancer antigen 125 level, residual disease after PDS, and pre-treatment WBC differential counts. The models were then validated by 10-fold cross-validation (CV). In addition to stage and residual disease after PDS, which are known predictors, lymphocyte and monocyte count were found to be significant prognostic factors for platinum-sensitivity, platelet count for PFS, and neutrophil count for OS on multivariate analysis. The area under the curves of platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS calculated by the 10-fold CV procedure were 0.7405, 0.8159, and 0.815, respectively. Prognostic factors including pre-treatment CBC were used to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS of patients with EOC. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual outcomes.

Is It Time to Tailor the Prediction of Radio-Induced Toxicity in Prostate Cancer Patients? Building the First Set of Nomograms for Late Rectal Syndrome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valdagni, Riccardo; Radiotherapy, Fondazione IRCCS - Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan; Kattan, Michael W.

Purpose: Development of user-friendly tools for the prediction of single-patient probability of late rectal toxicity after conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: This multicenter protocol was characterized by the prospective evaluation of rectal toxicity through self-assessed questionnaires (minimum follow-up, 36 months) by 718 adult men in the AIROPROS 0102 trial. Doses were between 70 and 80 Gy. Nomograms were created based on multivariable logistic regression analysis. Three endpoints were considered: G2 to G3 late rectal bleeding (52/718 events), G3 late rectal bleeding (24/718 events), and G2 to G3 late fecal incontinence (LINC, 19/718 events). Results: Inputs for themore » nomogram for G2 to G3 late rectal bleeding estimation were as follows: presence of abdominal surgery before RT, percentage volume of rectum receiving >75 Gy (V75Gy), and nomogram-based estimation of the probability of G2 to G3 acute gastrointestinal toxicity (continuous variable, which was estimated using a previously published nomogram). G3 late rectal bleeding estimation was based on abdominal surgery before RT, V75Gy, and NOMACU. Prediction of G2 to G3 late fecal incontinence was based on abdominal surgery before RT, presence of hemorrhoids, use of antihypertensive medications (protective factor), and percentage volume of rectum receiving >40 Gy. Conclusions: We developed and internally validated the first set of nomograms available in the literature for the prediction of radio-induced toxicity in prostate cancer patients. Calculations included dosimetric as well as clinical variables to help radiation oncologists predict late rectal morbidity, thus introducing the possibility of RT plan corrections to better tailor treatment to the patient's characteristics, to avoid unnecessary worsening of quality of life, and to provide support to the patient in selecting the best therapeutic approach.« less

Age, gender, and voided volume dependency of peak urinary flow rate and uroflowmetry nomogram in the Indian population

PubMed Central

Kumar, Vikash; Dhabalia, Jayesh V.; Nelivigi, Girish G.; Punia, Mahendra S.; Suryavanshi, Manav

2009-01-01

Objectives: The objective of this study was measurement of urine flow parameters by a non invasive urodynamic test. Variation of flow rates based on voided volume, age, and gender are described. Different nomograms are available for different populations and racial differences of urethral physiology are described. Currently, there has been no study from the Indian population on uroflow parameters. So the purpose of this study was to establish normal reference ranges of maximum and average flow rates, to see the influence of age, gender, and voided volume on flow rates, and to chart these values in the form of a nomogram. Methods: We evaluated 1,011 uroflowmetry tests in different age groups in a healthy population (healthy relatives of our patients) 16-50 year old males, >50 year old males, 5-15 year old children, and >15 year pre-menopausal and post-menopausal females. The uroflowmetry was done using the gravitimetric method. Flow chart parameters were analyzed and statistical calculations were used for drawing uroflow nomograms. Results: Qmax values in adult males were significantly higher than in the elderly and Qmax values in young females were significantly higher than in young males. Qmax values in males increased with age until 15 years old; followed by a slow decline until reaching 50 years old followed by a rapid decline after 50 years old even after correcting voided volume. Qmax values in females increased with age until they reached age 15 followed by decline in flow rate until a pre-menopausal age followed by no significant decline in post-menopausal females. Qmax values increased with voided volume until 700 cc followed by a plateau and decline. Conclusions: Qmax values more significantly correlated with age and voided volume than Qavg. Nomograms were drawn in centile form to provide normal reference ranges. Qmax values in our population were lower than described in literature. Patients with voided volume up to 50 ml could be evaluated with a nomogram. PMID:19955668

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

PubMed

Custodio, A; Carmona-Bayonas, A; Jiménez-Fonseca, P; Sánchez, M L; Viudez, A; Hernández, R; Cano, J M; Echavarria, I; Pericay, C; Mangas, M; Visa, L; Buxo, E; García, T; Rodríguez Palomo, A; Álvarez Manceñido, F; Lacalle, A; Macias, I; Azkarate, A; Ramchandani, A; Fernández Montes, A; López, C; Longo, F; Sánchez Bayona, R; Limón, M L; Díaz-Serrano, A; Hurtado, A; Madero, R; Gómez, C; Gallego, J

2017-06-06

To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.

Predicting stress urinary incontinence during pregnancy: combination of pelvic floor ultrasound parameters and clinical factors.

PubMed

Chen, Ling; Luo, Dan; Yu, Xiajuan; Jin, Mei; Cai, Wenzhi

2018-05-12

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive tool that combining pelvic floor ultrasound parameters and clinical factors for stress urinary incontinence during pregnancy. A total of 535 women in first or second trimester were included for an interview and transperineal ultrasound assessment from two hospitals. Imaging data sets were analyzed offline to assess for bladder neck vertical position, urethra angles (α, β, and γ angles), hiatal area and bladder neck funneling. All significant continuous variables at univariable analysis were analyzed by receiver-operating characteristics. Three multivariable logistic models were built on clinical factor, and combined with ultrasound parameters. The final predictive model with best performance and fewest variables was selected to establish a nomogram. Internal and external validation of the nomogram were performed by both discrimination represented by C-index and calibration measured by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A decision curve analysis was conducted to determine the clinical utility of the nomogram. After excluding 14 women with invalid data, 521 women were analyzed. β angle, γ angle and hiatal area had limited predictive value for stress urinary incontinence during pregnancy, with area under curves of 0.558-0.648. The final predictive model included body mass index gain since pregnancy, constipation, previous delivery mode, β angle at rest, and bladder neck funneling. The nomogram based on the final model showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.789 and satisfactory calibration (P=0.828), both of which were supported by external validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinical useful. The nomogram incorporating both the pelvic floor ultrasound parameters and clinical factors has been validated to show good discrimination and calibration, and could be an important tool for stress urinary incontinence risk prediction at an early stage of pregnancy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting umbilical artery pH during labour: Development and validation of a nomogram using fetal heart rate patterns.

PubMed

Ramanah, Rajeev; Omar, Sikiyah; Guillien, Alicia; Pugin, Aurore; Martin, Alain; Riethmuller, Didier; Mottet, Nicolas

2018-06-01

Nomograms are statistical models that combine variables to obtain the most accurate and reliable prediction for a particular risk. Fetal heart rate (FHR) interpretation alone has been found to be poorly predictive for fetal acidosis while other clinical risk factors exist. The aim of this study was to create and validate a nomogram based on FHR patterns and relevant clinical parameters to provide a non-invasive individualized prediction of umbilical artery pH during labour. A retrospective observational study was conducted on 4071 patients in labour presenting singleton pregnancies at >34 gestational weeks and delivering vaginally. Clinical characteristics, FHR patterns and umbilical cord gas of 1913 patients were used to construct a nomogram predicting an umbilical artery (Ua) pH <7.18 (10th centile of the study population) after an univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. External validation was obtained from an independent cohort of 2158 patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the nomogram were determined. Upon multivariate analysis, parity (p < 0.01), induction of labour (p = 0.01), a prior uterine scar (p = 0.02), maternal fever (p = 0.02) and the type of FHR (p < 0.01) were significantly associated with an Ua pH <7.18 (p < 0.05). Apgar score at 1, 5 and 10 min were significantly lower in the group with an Ua pH <7.18 (p < 0.01). The nomogram constructed had a Concordance Index of 0.75 (area under the curve) with a sensitivity of 57%, a specificity of 91%, a negative predictive value of 5% and a positive predictive value of 99%. Calibration found no difference between the predicted probabilities and the observed rate of Ua pH <7.18 (p = 0.63). The validation set had a Concordance Index of 0.72 and calibration with a p < 0.77. We successfully developed and validated a nomogram to predict Ua pH by combining easily available clinical variables and FHR. Discrimination and calibration of the model were statistically good. This mathematical tool can help clinicians in the management of labour by predicting umbilical artery pH based on FHR tracings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

External validation of urinary PCA3-based nomograms to individually predict prostate biopsy outcome.

PubMed

Auprich, Marco; Haese, Alexander; Walz, Jochen; Pummer, Karl; de la Taille, Alexandre; Graefen, Markus; de Reijke, Theo; Fisch, Margit; Kil, Paul; Gontero, Paolo; Irani, Jacques; Chun, Felix K-H

2010-11-01

Prior to safely adopting risk stratification tools, their performance must be tested in an external patient cohort. To assess accuracy and generalizability of previously reported, internally validated, prebiopsy prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) gene-based nomograms when applied to a large, external, European cohort of men at risk of prostate cancer (PCa). Biopsy data, including urinary PCA3 score, were available for 621 men at risk of PCa who were participating in a European multi-institutional study. All patients underwent a ≥10-core prostate biopsy. Biopsy indication was based on suspicious digital rectal examination, persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen level (2.5-10 ng/ml) and/or suspicious histology (atypical small acinar proliferation of the prostate, >/= two cores affected by high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in first set of biopsies). PCA3 scores were assessed using the Progensa assay (Gen-Probe Inc, San Diego, CA, USA). According to the previously reported nomograms, different PCA3 score codings were used. The probability of a positive biopsy was calculated using previously published logistic regression coefficients. Predicted outcomes were compared to the actual biopsy results. Accuracy was calculated using the area under the curve as a measure of discrimination; calibration was explored graphically. Biopsy-confirmed PCa was detected in 255 (41.1%) men. Median PCA3 score of biopsy-negative versus biopsy-positive men was 20 versus 48 in the total cohort, 17 versus 47 at initial biopsy, and 37 versus 53 at repeat biopsy (all p≤0.002). External validation of all four previously reported PCA3-based nomograms demonstrated equally high accuracy (0.73-0.75) and excellent calibration. The main limitations of the study reside in its early detection setting, referral scenario, and participation of only tertiary-care centers. In accordance with the original publication, previously developed PCA3-based nomograms achieved high accuracy and sufficient calibration. These novel nomograms represent robust tools and are thus generalizable to European men at risk of harboring PCa. Consequently, in presence of a PCA3 score, these nomograms may be safely used to assist clinicians when prostate biopsy is contemplated. Copyright © 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical application of a nomogram based on age, serum FSH and AMH to select the FSH starting dose in IVF/ICSI cycles: a retrospective two-centres study.

PubMed

Papaleo, Enrico; Zaffagnini, Stefano; Munaretto, Maria; Vanni, Valeria Stella; Rebonato, Giorgia; Grisendi, Valentina; Di Paola, Rossana; La Marca, Antonio

2016-12-01

To externally validate a nomogram based on ovarian reserve markers as a tool to optimize the FSH starting dose in IVF/ICSI cycles. A two-centres retrospective study including 398 infertile women undergoing their first IVF/ICSI cycle (June 2013-June 2014). IVF data were retrieved from two independent IVF centres in Italy (San Raffaele Hospital, Centre 1; Verona Hospital, Centre 2). A central lab for the routine measurement of AMH and FSH was used for both centres. All women were treated based on physical and hormonal characteristics according to locally adopted protocols. The nomogram was then retrospectively applied to the patients comparing the calculated starting dose to the one actually given. In Centre 1, 64/131 women (48.8%) had an ovarian response below the target. While 45 of these patients were treated with a maximal FSH starting dose (≥225 IU), n=19/131 (14.5%) were treated with a submaximal dose. The vast majority of them (n=17/19) would have received a higher FSH starting dose by using the nomogram. Seventeen patients (n=17/131) had hyper response and about half of them would have been treated with a reduced FSH starting dose according to the nomogram. In Centre 2, 142/267 patients (53.2%) had an ovarian response below the target. While 136 of these were treated with a maximal FSH starting dose (≥225 IU), n=6/267 were treated with a submaximal dose. The majority of them (n=5/6) would have received a higher FSH starting dose. Thirty-two (n=32/267) patients had hyper response and more than half of them would have been treated with a reduced FSH dose. In both Centres, applying the nomogram would have resulted in more appropriate FSH starting doses compared to the the ones actually given based on clinicians choices. The use of an objective algorithm based on patient's age, serum FSH and AMH levels may thus be an effective advice on the selection of the tailored FSH starting dose. Hence, the use of this easily available nomogram could increase the proportion of patients achieving the optimal ovarian response. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nomogram for interpreting slope stability of fine-grained deposits in modern and ancient-marine environments.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, J.S.; Sangrey, D.A.; Fugate, J.K.

1985-01-01

This nomogram was designed to aid in interpreting the causes of mass movement in modern and ancient settings, to provide a basis for evaluating and predicting slope stability under given conditions and to further the understanding of the relationships among the several key factors that control slope stability. Design of the nomogram is based on effective stress and combines consolidation theory as applicable to depositional environments with the infinite-slope model of slope-stability analysis. If infinite-slope conditions are assumed to exist, the effective overburden stress can be used to derive a factor of safety against static slope failure by using the angle of internal friction and the slope angle. -from Authors

Risk stratification of prostate cancer: integrating multiparametric MRI, nomograms and biomarkers

PubMed Central

Watson, Matthew J; George, Arvin K; Maruf, Mahir; Frye, Thomas P; Muthigi, Akhil; Kongnyuy, Michael; Valayil, Subin G; Pinto, Peter A

2016-01-01

Accurate risk stratification of prostate cancer is achieved with a number of existing tools to ensure the identification of at-risk patients, characterization of disease aggressiveness, prediction of cancer burden and extrapolation of treatment outcomes for appropriate management of the disease. Statistical tables and nomograms using classic clinicopathological variables have long been the standard of care. However, the introduction of multiparametric MRI, along with fusion-guided targeted prostate biopsy and novel biomarkers, are being assimilated into clinical practice. The majority of studies to date present the outcomes of each in isolation. The current review offers a critical and objective assessment regarding the integration of multiparametric MRI and fusion-guided prostate biopsy with novel biomarkers and predictive nomograms in contemporary clinical practice. PMID:27400645

Prospective evaluation of a bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram.

PubMed

Hohlfelder, Benjamin; Sylvester, Katelyn W; Rimsans, Jessica; DeiCicchi, David; Connors, Jean M

2017-05-01

Bivalirudin may cause a falsely prolonged international normalized ratio (INR) that complicates the discontinuation of bivalirudin when used as a bridge to warfarin. To prospectively validate our novel bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram, adult patients who received bivalirudin as a bridge to warfarin between July 2015 and June 2016 were prospectively evaluated, utilizing our predictive nomogram. The major outcome of our analysis was the correlation between the predicted change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation based on the nomogram, and the actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation. The major outcome was analyzed using the Pearson's correlation test. A Pearson's correlation coefficient >0.6 was considered to be a strong correlation. Bivalirudin was used as a bridge to warfarin in 29 patients. The majority of patients (86%) included in the analysis had a ventricular assist device. The median initial bivalirudin rate was 0.07 mg/kg/h and the mean increase in INR when starting bivalirudin was 0.6. The mean final weight-based bivalirudin rate was 0.08 mg/kg/h and the mean change in INR after stopping bivalirudin was 0.7. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation and the actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation was 0.86 (p < 0.001). After bivalirudin discontinuation, 68% of patients had a therapeutic INR. The results of this prospective analysis successfully validated our novel bivalirudin to warfarin transition nomogram. There was a very strong correlation between the predicted change and actual change in INR upon bivalirudin discontinuation.

Melanoma-specific mortality and competing mortality in patients with non-metastatic malignant melanoma: a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Weidong; Sakamoto, Naoko; Yang, Limin

2016-07-07

The objectives of this study were to evaluate and model the probability of melanoma-specific death and competing causes of death for patients with melanoma by competing risk analysis, and to build competing risk nomograms to provide individualized and accurate predictive tools. Melanoma data were obtained from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program. All patients diagnosed with primary non-metastatic melanoma during the years 2004-2007 were potentially eligible for inclusion. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to describe the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality. We used Gray's test to compare differences in CIF between groups. The proportional subdistribution hazard approach by Fine and Gray was used to model CIF. We built competing risk nomograms based on the models that we developed. The 5-year cumulative incidence of melanoma death was 7.1 %, and the cumulative incidence of other causes of death was 7.4 %. We identified that variables associated with an elevated probability of melanoma-specific mortality included older age, male sex, thick melanoma, ulcerated cancer, and positive lymph nodes. The nomograms were well calibrated. C-indexes were 0.85 and 0.83 for nomograms predicting the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality, which suggests good discriminative ability. This large study cohort enabled us to build a reliable competing risk model and nomogram for predicting melanoma prognosis. Model performance proved to be good. This individualized predictive tool can be used in clinical practice to help treatment-related decision making.

External validation of a PCA-3-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer and high-grade cancer on initial prostate biopsy.

PubMed

Greene, Daniel J; Elshafei, Ahmed; Nyame, Yaw A; Kara, Onder; Malkoc, Ercan; Gao, Tianming; Jones, J Stephen

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate a previously developed PCA3-based nomogram for the prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) and high-grade (intermediate and/or high-grade) prostate cancer (HGPCa) at the time of initial prostate biopsy. A retrospective review was performed on a cohort of 336 men from a large urban academic medical center. All men had serum PSA <20 ng/ml and underwent initial transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy with at least 10 cores sampling for suspicious exam and/or elevated PSA. Covariates were collected for the nomogram and included age, ethnicity, family history (FH) of PCa, PSA at diagnosis, PCA3, total prostate volume (TPV), and abnormal finding on digital rectal exam (DRE). These variables were used to test the accuracy (concordance index) and calibration of a previously published PCA3 nomogram. Biopsy confirms PCa and HGPCa in 51.0% and 30.4% of validation patients, respectively. This differed from the original cohort in that it had significantly more PCa and HGPCA (51% vs. 44%, P = 0.019; and 30.4% vs. 19.1%, P < 0.001). Despite the differences in PCa detection the concordance index was 75% and 77% for overall PCa and HGPCa, respectively. Calibration for overall PCa was good. This represents the first external validation of a PCA3-based prostate cancer predictive nomogram in a North American population. Prostate 76:1019-1023, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nomogram and Validity of a Model for Predicting Malnutrition in Patients on Liver Transplant Lists.

PubMed

García-Rodríguez, María Teresa; Pértega-Díaz, Sonia; López-Calviño, Beatriz; Piñón-Villar, María Del Carmen; Otero-Ferreiro, Alejandra; Suárez-López, Francisco; Gómez-Gutiérrez, Manuel; Seoane-Pillado, María Teresa; Pita-Fernández, Salvador

2018-04-25

Malnutrition is associated with increased morbimortality in liver transplant patients, and it is important to identify factors related to nutritional status in these patients. Determine variables associated with malnutrition and create a nomogram in liver transplant candidates. Cross-sectional study (n = 110). demographic variables, imbalances due to the disease, transplant aetiology and analytical parameters. Physical examination was performed and degree of hepatic dysfunction calculated. Nutritional status was assessed: Controlling Nutritional Status, Spanish Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition criteria, Nutritional Risk Index, Prognostic Nutritional Index or Onodera Index and The Subjective Global Assessment. Logistic regression analysis was performed. A predictive nomogram (discrimination and calibration analysis) was generated. Malnourishment was defined according to at least 4 or more of the methods studied. Patients with ascites, encephalopathy and portal hypertension presented malnourishment more frequently. Malnutrition was associated with greater liver dysfunction and lower grip strength. Variables independently associated with malnourishment were encephalopathy and lower albumin values. A nomogram was created to predict malnourishment, with good discriminatory power and calibration. A score was developed for evaluating malnutrition risk. This would provide a tool that makes it possible to quickly and easily identify the risk of malnutrition in liver transplant candidates.

Transcutaneous Bilirubin Nomogram for Healthy Term and Late Preterm Neonates in First 96 Hours of Life.

PubMed

Thakkar, Pareshkumar; Chavda, Hardas; Doshi, Vikas

2017-05-15

To develop nomogram of Transcutaneous Bilirubin among healthy term and late-preterm neonates during first 96 hours of age. Longitudinal observational study. Neonatal unit of a tertiary care Hospital of Central Gujarat, India. 1075 healthy term and late preterm neonates (≥35weeks). Six-hourly transcutaneous bilirubin was obtained from birth to 96 hour of life using Drager JM 103 Transcutaneous Bilirubinometer. Main outcome measures: Nomogram of Transcutaneous Bilirubin with percentile values was obtained, rate of rise of bilirubin was calculated and predictive ability of normative data was analyzed for subsequent need of phototherapy. The age-specific percentile curves and nomogram were developed from the transcutaneous bilirubin readings of 1,010 neonates. Rate of rise in first 12 hour was 0.2 mg/dL and was 0.17 mg/dL in 12 to 24 hour of life which decreased on second day of life. Neonates who required phototherapy had consistently higher readings of transcutaneous bilirubin and also higher rate of rise in first 48 hrs. Neonates whose transcutaneous bilirubin is above the 50th percentile should be monitored for the development of significant hyperbilirubinemia.

Prognostic models for renal cell carcinoma recurrence: external validation in a Japanese population.

PubMed

Utsumi, Takanobu; Ueda, Takeshi; Fukasawa, Satoshi; Komaru, Atsushi; Sazuka, Tomokazu; Kawamura, Koji; Imamoto, Takashi; Nihei, Naoki; Suzuki, Hiroyoshi; Ichikawa, Tomohiko

2011-09-01

The aim of the present study was to compare the accuracy of three prognostic models in predicting recurrence-free survival among Japanese patients who underwent nephrectomy for non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Patients originated from two centers: Chiba University Hospital (n = 152) and Chiba Cancer Center (n = 65). The following data were collected: age, sex, clinical presentation, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, surgical technique, 1997 tumor-node-metastasis stage, clinical and pathological tumor size, histological subtype, disease recurrence, and progression. Three western models, including Yaycioglu's model, Cindolo's model and Kattan's nomogram, were used to predict recurrence-free survival. Predictive accuracy of these models were validated by using Harrell's concordance-index. Concordance-indexes were 0.795 and 0.745 for Kattan's nomogram, 0.700 and 0.634 for Yaycioglu's model, and 0.700 and 0.634 for Cindolo's model, respectively. Furthermore, the constructed calibration plots of Kattan's nomogram overestimated the predicted probability of recurrence-free survival after 5 years compared with the actual probability. Our findings suggest that despite working better than other predictive tools, Kattan's nomogram needs be used with caution when applied to Japanese patients who have undergone nephrectomy for non-metastatic RCC. © 2011 The Japanese Urological Association.

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

PubMed Central

Custodio, A; Carmona-Bayonas, A; Jiménez-Fonseca, P; Sánchez, M L; Viudez, A; Hernández, R; Cano, J M; Echavarria, I; Pericay, C; Mangas, M; Visa, L; Buxo, E; García, T; Rodríguez Palomo, A; Álvarez Manceñido, F; Lacalle, A; Macias, I; Azkarate, A; Ramchandani, A; Fernández Montes, A; López, C; Longo, F; Sánchez Bayona, R; Limón, M L; Díaz-Serrano, A; Hurtado, A; Madero, R; Gómez, C; Gallego, J

2017-01-01

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5–6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5–10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8–16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3–8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3–14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6–24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591–0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636–0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design. PMID:28463962

Towards more efficient burn care: Identifying factors associated with good quality of life post-burn.

PubMed

Finlay, V; Phillips, M; Allison, G T; Wood, F M; Ching, D; Wicaksono, D; Plowman, S; Hendrie, D; Edgar, D W

2015-11-01

As minor burn patients constitute the vast majority of a developed nation case-mix, streamlining care for this group can promote efficiency from a service-wide perspective. This study tested the hypothesis that a predictive nomogram model that estimates likelihood of good long-term quality of life (QoL) post-burn is a valid way to optimise patient selection and risk management when applying a streamlined model of care. A sample of 224 burn patients managed by the Burn Service of Western Australia who provided both short and long-term outcomes was used to estimate the probability of achieving a good QoL defined as 150 out of a possible 160 points on the Burn Specific Health Scale-Brief (BSHS-B) at least six months from injury. A multivariate logistic regression analysis produced a predictive model provisioned as a nomogram for clinical application. A second, independent cohort of consecutive patients (n=106) was used to validate the predictive merit of the nomogram. Male gender (p=0.02), conservative management (p=0.03), upper limb burn (p=0.04) and high BSHS-B score within one month of burn (p<0.001) were significant predictors of good outcome at six months and beyond. A Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analysis demonstrated excellent (90%) accuracy overall. At 80% probability of good outcome, the false positive risk was 14%. The nomogram was validated by running a second ROC analysis of the model in an independent cohort. The analysis confirmed high (86%) overall accuracy of the model, the risk of false positive was reduced to 10% at a lower (70%) probability. This affirms the stability of the nomogram model in different patient groups over time. An investigation of the effect of missing data on sample selection determined that a greater proportion of younger patients with smaller TBSA burns were excluded due to loss to follow up. For clinicians managing comparable burn populations, the BSWA burns nomogram is an effective tool to assist the selection of patients to a streamlined care pathway with the aim of improving efficiency of service delivery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for in-hospital mortality in adults poisoned with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents

PubMed Central

Lionte, Catalina; Sorodoc, Victorita; Jaba, Elisabeta; Botezat, Alina

2017-01-01

Abstract Acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents represents an important challenge in the emergency department (ED). The objective is to create and validate a risk-prediction nomogram for use in the ED to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in adults from acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents. This was a prospective cohort study involving adults with acute poisoning from drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents admitted to a tertiary referral center for toxicology between January and December 2015 (derivation cohort) and between January and June 2016 (validation cohort). We used a program to generate nomograms based on binary logistic regression predictive models. We included variables that had significant associations with death. Using regression coefficients, we calculated scores for each variable, and estimated the event probability. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy and using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. The nomogram was tested on a separate validation cohort using ROC analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Data from 315 patients aged 18 to 91 years were analyzed (n = 180 in the derivation cohort; n = 135 in the validation cohort). In the final model, the following variables were significantly associated with mortality: age, laboratory test results (lactate, potassium, MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase), electrocardiogram parameters (QTc interval), and echocardiography findings (E wave velocity deceleration time). Sex was also included to use the same model for men and women. The resulting nomogram showed excellent survival/mortality discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.976, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.954–0.998, P < 0.0001 for the derivation cohort; AUC 0.957, 95% CI 0.892–1, P < 0.0001 for the validation cohort). This nomogram provides more precise, rapid, and simple risk-analysis information for individual patients acutely exposed to drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents, and accurately estimates the probability of in-hospital death, exclusively using the results of objective tests available in the ED. PMID:28328838

An externally validated model for predicting long-term survival after exercise treadmill testing in patients with suspected coronary artery disease and a normal electrocardiogram.

PubMed

Lauer, Michael S; Pothier, Claire E; Magid, David J; Smith, S Scott; Kattan, Michael W

2007-12-18

The exercise treadmill test is recommended for risk stratification among patients with intermediate to high pretest probability of coronary artery disease. Posttest risk stratification is based on the Duke treadmill score, which includes only functional capacity and measures of ischemia. To develop and externally validate a post-treadmill test, multivariable mortality prediction rule for adults with suspected coronary artery disease and normal electrocardiograms. Prospective cohort study conducted from September 1990 to May 2004. Exercise treadmill laboratories in a major medical center (derivation set) and a separate HMO (validation set). 33,268 patients in the derivation set and 5821 in the validation set. All patients had normal electrocardiograms and were referred for evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease. The derivation set patients were followed for a median of 6.2 years. A nomogram-illustrated model was derived on the basis of variables easily obtained in the stress laboratory, including age; sex; history of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, or typical angina; and exercise findings of functional capacity, ST-segment changes, symptoms, heart rate recovery, and frequent ventricular ectopy in recovery. The derivation data set included 1619 deaths. Although both the Duke treadmill score and our nomogram-illustrated model were significantly associated with death (P < 0.001), the nomogram was better at discrimination (concordance index for right-censored data, 0.83 vs. 0.73) and calibration. We reclassified many patients with intermediate- to high-risk Duke treadmill scores as low risk on the basis of the nomogram. The model also predicted 3-year mortality rates well in the validation set: Based on an optimal cut-point for a negative predictive value of 0.97, derivation and validation rates were, respectively, 1.7% and 2.5% below the cut-point and 25% and 29% above the cut-point. Blood test-based measures or left ventricular ejection fraction were not included. The nomogram can be applied only to patients with a normal electrocardiogram. Clinical utility remains to be tested. A simple nomogram based on easily obtained pretest and exercise test variables predicted all-cause mortality in adults with suspected coronary artery disease and normal electrocardiograms.

A Nomogram to Predict Anastomotic Leakage in Open Rectal Surgery-Hope or Hype?

PubMed

Klose, Johannes; Tarantino, Ignazio; von Fournier, Armin; Stowitzki, Moritz J; Kulu, Yakup; Bruckner, Thomas; Volz, Claudia; Schmidt, Thomas; Schneider, Martin; Büchler, Markus W; Ulrich, Alexis

2018-05-18

Anastomotic leakage is the most dreaded complication after rectal resection and total mesorectal excision, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Formation of a diverting ileostomy is generally performed to protect anastomotic healing. Identification of variables predicting anastomotic leakage might help to select patients who are under increased risk for the development of anastomotic leakage prior to surgery. The objective of this study was to assess the applicability of a nomogram as prognostic model for the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after rectal resection in a cohort of rectal cancer patients. Nine hundred seventy-two consecutive patients who underwent surgery for rectal cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent risk factors associated with anastomotic leakage. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of a recently published nomogram and an adopted risk score based on the variables identified in this study as a predictive model. Male sex (p = 0.042), obesity (p = 0.017), smoking (p = 0.012), postoperative bleeding (p = 0.024), and total protein level ≤ 5.6 g/dl (p = 0.007) were identified as independent risk factors for anastomotic leakage. The investigated nomogram and the adopted risk score failed to reach relevant areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.700 for the prediction of anastomotic leakage. The proposed nomogram and the adopted risk score failed to reliably predict the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after rectal resection. Risk scores as prognostic models for the prediction of anastomotic leakage, independently of the study population, still need to be identified.

Independent external validation of nomograms for predicting risk of low-trauma fracture and hip fracture

PubMed Central

Langsetmo, Lisa; Nguyen, Tuan V.; Nguyen, Nguyen D.; Kovacs, Christopher S.; Prior, Jerilynn C.; Center, Jacqueline R.; Morin, Suzanne; Josse, Robert G.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Hanley, David A.; Eisman, John A.

2011-01-01

Background A set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Methods We included participants aged 55–95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men. Interpretation The published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population. PMID:21173069

A novel nomogram accurately quantifies the risk of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Kiran, Ravi P; Attaluri, Vikram; Hammel, Jeff; Church, James

2013-05-01

The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (1.7% vs 1.3%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.

A nomogram to predict the survival of stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer after surgery.

PubMed

Mao, Qixing; Xia, Wenjie; Dong, Gaochao; Chen, Shuqi; Wang, Anpeng; Jin, Guangfu; Jiang, Feng; Xu, Lin

2018-04-01

Postoperative survival of patients with stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly heterogeneous. Here, we aimed to identify variables associated with postoperative survival and develop a tool for survival prediction. A retrospective review was performed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 2004 to December 2009. Significant variables were selected by use of the backward stepwise method. The nomogram was constructed with multivariable Cox regression. The model's performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration curve. The model was validated via an independent cohort from the Jiangsu Cancer Hospital Lung Cancer Center. A total of 1809 patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgery were included in the training cohort. Age, sex, grade, histology, tumor size, visceral pleural invasion, positive lymph nodes, lymph nodes examined, and surgery type (lobectomy vs pneumonectomy) were identified as significant prognostic variables using backward stepwise method. A nomogram was developed from the training cohort and validated using an independent Chinese cohort. The concordance index of the model was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.654-0.692) in training cohort and 0.664 in validation cohort (95% confidence interval, 0.614-0.714). The calibration plot showed optimal consistency between nomogram predicted survival and observed survival. Survival analyses demonstrated significant differences between different subgroups stratified by prognostic scores. This nomogram provided the individual survival prediction for patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC after surgery, which might benefit survival counseling for patients and clinicians, clinical trial design and follow-up, as well as postoperative strategy-making. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a radiomics nomogram for progression-free survival prediction in stage IV EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jiangdian; Zang, Yali; Li, Weimin; Zhong, Wenzhao; Shi, Jingyun; Dong, Di; Fang, Mengjie; Liu, Zaiyi; Tian, Jie

2017-03-01

Accurately predict the risk of disease progression and benefit of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) therapy for stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with activing epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations by current staging methods are challenge. We postulated that integrating a classifier consisted of multiple computed tomography (CT) phenotypic features, and other clinicopathological risk factors into a single model could improve risk stratification and prediction of progression-free survival (PFS) of EGFR TKIs for these patients. Patients confirmed as stage IV EGFR-mutant NSCLC received EGFR TKIs with no resection; pretreatment contrast enhanced CT performed at approximately 2 weeks before the treatment was enrolled. A six-CT-phenotypic-feature-based classifier constructed by the LASSO Cox regression model, and three clinicopathological factors: pathologic N category, performance status (PS) score, and intrapulmonary metastasis status were used to construct a nomogram in a training set of 115 patients. The prognostic and predictive accuracy of this nomogram was then subjected to an external independent validation of 107 patients. PFS between the training and independent validation set is no statistical difference by Mann-Whitney U test (P = 0.2670). PFS of the patients could be predicted with good consistency compared with the actual survival. C-index of the proposed individualized nomogram in the training set (0·707, 95%CI: 0·643, 0·771) and the independent validation set (0·715, 95%CI: 0·650, 0·780) showed the potential of clinical prognosis to predict PFS of stage IV EGFR-mutant NSCLC from EGFR TKIs. The individualized nomogram might facilitate patient counselling and individualise management of patients with this disease.

Astigmatism reduction clinical trial: a multicenter prospective evaluation of the predictability of arcuate keratotomy. Evaluation of surgical nomogram predictability. ARC-T Study Group.

PubMed

Price, F W; Grene, R B; Marks, R G; Gonzales, J S

1995-03-01

To determine the accuracy of the Lindstrom surgical nomogram for astigmatism. A prospective multicenter study. One hundred sixty eyes of 95 patients underwent astigmatic keratotomy in eight centers by nine surgeons. Inclusion criteria for the study included age of at least 18 years with 1 to 6 diopters (D) of naturally occurring corneal astigmatism and less than 1 D of lenticular astigmatism. A standardized astigmatic keratotomy surgical technique was performed on each eye. Surgical measurements were determined using the Lindstrom surgical nomogram for astigmatism. The Holladay, Cravy, Koch vector analysis method was used to determine the change in refractive cylinder results. Refractive changes also are presented without vector analysis merely using the absolute change in refractive cylinder and axis. Multiple regression analysis was used to develop a mathematical model determining the factors predictive of the change in refractive cylinder. The significant predictors for the amount of astigmatic correction achieved were, in order of decreasing importance, the following: number of incisions (R2 = 30%), incision length (R2 = 16%), age (R2 = 8%), and gender (R2 = 2%). Astigmatism is a two-dimensional measurement of both quantity and direction that is most appropriately analyzed with vector analysis. The original Lindstrom surgical nomogram for arcuate keratotomy used in this study is still quite useful although it tended to underpredict results for many patients, especially those having two incisional surgeries. Some older subjects having minimal surgery achieved greater correction than predicted by the original nomogram. The most important factors predictive of greater astigmatic keratotomy surgical effect are incision number, incision length, older age, and male gender.

Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Acute Urinary Retention After I-125 Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roeloffzen, Ellen M., E-mail: e.m.a.roeloffzen@umcutrecht.nl; Vulpen, Marco van; Battermann, Jan J.

Purpose: Acute urinary retention (AUR) after iodine-125 (I-125) prostate brachytherapy negatively influences long-term quality of life and therefore should be prevented. We aimed to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of AUR. Methods: Using the preoperative data of 714 consecutive patients who underwent I-125 prostate brachytherapy between 2005 and 2008 at our department, we modeled the probability of AUR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of a set of pretreatment predictors and the additional value of a new risk factor (the extent of prostate protrusion into the bladder). The performance of the finalmore » model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. Results: Of the 714 patients, 57 patients (8.0%) developed AUR after implantation. Multivariate analysis showed that the combination of prostate volume, IPSS score, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment and the extent of prostate protrusion contribute to the prediction of AUR. The discriminative value (receiver operator characteristic area, ROC) of the basic model (including prostate volume, International Prostate Symptom Score, and neoadjuvant hormonal treatment) to predict the development of AUR was 0.70. The addition of prostate protrusion significantly increased the discriminative power of the model (ROC 0.82). Calibration of this final model was good. The nomogram showed that among patients with a low sum score (<18 points), the risk of AUR was only 0%-5%. However, in patients with a high sum score (>35 points), the risk of AUR was more than 20%. Conclusion: This nomogram is a useful tool for physicians to predict the risk of AUR after I-125 prostate brachytherapy. The nomogram can aid in individualized treatment decision-making and patient counseling.« less

Prediction of new brain metastases after radiosurgery: validation and analysis of performance of a multi-institutional nomogram.

PubMed

Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N; Attia, Albert; Braunstein, Steve E; Ahluwalia, Manmeet S; Hepel, Jaroslaw; Chung, Caroline; Contessa, Joseph; McTyre, Emory; Peiffer, Ann M; Lucas, John T; Isom, Scott; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Kotecha, Rupesh; Stavas, Mark J; Page, Brandi R; Kleinberg, Lawrence; Shen, Colette; Taylor, Robert B; Onyeuku, Nasarachi E; Hyde, Andrew T; Gorovets, Daniel; Chao, Samuel T; Corso, Christopher; Ruiz, Jimmy; Watabe, Kounosuke; Tatter, Stephen B; Zadeh, Gelareh; Chiang, Veronica L S; Fiveash, John B; Chan, Michael D

2017-11-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases can avoid WBRT toxicities, but with risk of subsequent distant brain failure (DBF). Sole use of number of metastases to triage patients may be an unrefined method. Data on 1354 patients treated with SRS monotherapy from 2000 to 2013 for new brain metastases was collected across eight academic centers. The cohort was divided into training and validation datasets and a prognostic model was developed for time to DBF. We then evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the model within the validation dataset, and confirmed its performance with an independent contemporary cohort. Number of metastases (≥8, HR 3.53 p = 0.0001), minimum margin dose (HR 1.07 p = 0.0033), and melanoma histology (HR 1.45, p = 0.0187) were associated with DBF. A prognostic index derived from the training dataset exhibited ability to discriminate patients' DBF risk within the validation dataset (c-index = 0.631) and Heller's explained relative risk (HERR) = 0.173 (SE = 0.048). Absolute number of metastases was evaluated for its ability to predict DBF in the derivation and validation datasets, and was inferior to the nomogram. A nomogram high-risk threshold yielding a 2.1-fold increased need for early WBRT was identified. Nomogram values also correlated to number of brain metastases at time of failure (r = 0.38, p < 0.0001). We present a multi-institutionally validated prognostic model and nomogram to predict risk of DBF and guide risk-stratification of patients who are appropriate candidates for radiosurgery versus upfront WBRT.

Multi-institutional Nomogram Predicting Survival Free From Salvage Whole Brain Radiation After Radiosurgery in Patients With Brain Metastases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorovets, Daniel; Department of Radiation Oncology, Perlmutter Cancer Center, NYU School of Medicine, New York, New York; Ayala-Peacock, Diandra

Purpose: Optimal patient selection for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) as the initial treatment for brain metastases is complicated and controversial. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts survival without salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after upfront SRS. Methods and Materials: Multi-institutional data were analyzed from 895 patients with 2095 lesions treated with SRS without prior or planned WBRT. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent pre-SRS predictors of WBRT-free survival, which were integrated to build a nomogram that was subjected to bootstrap validation. Results: Median WBRT-free survival was 8 months (range, 0.1-139 months). Significant independent predictors formore » inferior WBRT-free survival were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1 for each 10-year increase), HER2(−) breast cancer (HR 1.6 relative to other histologic features), colorectal cancer (HR 1.4 relative to other histologic features), increasing number of brain metastases (HR 1.09, 1.32, 1.37, and 1.87 for 2, 3, 4, and 5+ lesions, respectively), presence of neurologic symptoms (HR 1.26), progressive systemic disease (HR 1.35), and increasing extracranial disease burden (HR 1.31 for oligometastatic and HR 1.56 for widespread). Additionally, HER2(+) breast cancer (HR 0.81) and melanoma (HR 1.11) trended toward significance. The independently weighted hazard ratios were used to create a nomogram to display estimated probabilities of 6-month and 12-month WBRT-free survival with a corrected Harrell's C concordance statistic of 0.62. Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used at initial evaluation to help select patients best suited for upfront SRS for brain metastases while reducing expense and morbidity in patients who derive minimal or no benefit.« less

Nomogram for prediction of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis in proven level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Jiang, Yanlin; Xu, Hong; Zhang, Hao; Ou, Xunyan; Xu, Zhen; Ai, Liping; Sun, Lisha; Liu, Caigang

2017-09-22

The current management of the axilla in level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients is axillary lymph node dissection regardless of the status of the level 2 axillary lymph nodes. The goal of this study was to develop a nomogram predicting the probability of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis (L-2-ALNM) in patients with level 1 axillary node-positive breast cancer. We reviewed the records of 974 patients with pathology-confirmed level 1 node-positive breast cancer between 2010 and 2014 at the Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute. The patients were randomized 1:1 and divided into a modeling group and a validation group. Clinical and pathological features of the patients were assessed with uni- and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram based on independent predictors for the L-2-ALNM identified by multivariate logistic regression was constructed. Independent predictors of L-2-ALNM by the multivariate logistic regression analysis included tumor size, Ki-67 status, histological grade, and number of positive level 1 axillary lymph nodes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling set and the validation set were 0.828 and 0.816, respectively. The false-negative rates of the L-2-ALNM nomogram were 1.82% and 7.41% for the predicted probability cut-off points of < 6% and < 10%, respectively, when applied to the validation group. Our nomogram could help predict L-2-ALNM in patients with level 1 axillary lymph node metastasis. Patients with a low probability of L-2-ALNM could be spared level 2 axillary lymph node dissection, thereby reducing postoperative morbidity.

Preoperative nomogram to predict the likelihood of complications after radical nephroureterectomy.

PubMed

Raman, Jay D; Lin, Yu-Kuan; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Krabbe, Laura-Maria; Margulis, Vitaly; Arnouk, Alex; Lallas, Costas D; Trabulsi, Edouard J; Drouin, Sarah J; Rouprêt, Morgan; Bozzini, Gregory; Colin, Pierre; Peyronnet, Benoit; Bensalah, Karim; Bailey, Kari; Canes, David; Klatte, Tobias

2017-02-01

To construct a nomogram based on preoperative variables to better predict the likelihood of complications occurring within 30 days of radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). The charts of 731 patients undergoing RNU at eight academic medical centres between 2002 and 2014 were reviewed. Preoperative clinical, demographic and comorbidity indices were collected. Complications occurring within 30 days of surgery were graded using the modified Clavien-Dindo scale. Multivariate logistic regression determined the association between preoperative variables and post-RNU complications. A nomogram was created from the reduced multivariate model with internal validation using the bootstrapping technique with 200 repetitions. A total of 408 men and 323 women with a median age of 70 years and a body mass index of 27 kg/m 2 were included. A total of 75% of the cohort was white, 18% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥2, 20% had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score >5 and 50% had baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) ≥ stage III. Overall, 279 patients (38%) experienced a complication, including 61 events (22%) with Clavien grade ≥ III. A multivariate model identified five variables associated with complications, including patient age, race, ECOG performance status, CKD stage and CCI score. A preoperative nomogram incorporating these risk factors was constructed with an area under curve of 72.2%. Using standard preoperative variables from this multi-institutional RNU experience, we constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting peri-operative complications after RNU. Such information may permit more accurate risk stratification on an individual cases basis before major surgery. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adjuvant treatment may benefit patients with high-risk upper rectal cancer: A nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis of 547 patients.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Jin, Jing; Yang, Yong; Liu, Wen-Yang; Ren, Hua; Feng, Yan-Ru; Xiao, Qin; Li, Ning; Deng, Lei; Fang, Hui; Jing, Hao; Lu, Ning-Ning; Tang, Yu; Wang, Jian-Yang; Wang, Shu-Lian; Wang, Wei-Hu; Song, Yong-Wen; Liu, Yue-Ping; Li, Ye-Xiong

2016-10-04

The role of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (ACRT) or adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in treating patients with locally advanced upper rectal cancer (URC) after total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery remains unclear. We developed a clinical nomogram and a recursive partitioning analysis (RPA)-based risk stratification system for predicting 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) to determine whether these individuals require ACRT or ACT. This retrospective analysis included 547 patients with primary URC. A nomogram was developed based on the Cox regression model. The performance of the model was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve in internal validation with bootstrapping. RPA stratified patients into risk groups based on their tumor characteristics. Five independent prognostic factors (age, preoperative increased carcinoembryonic antigen and carcinoma antigen 19-9, positive lymph node [PLN] number, tumor deposit [TD], pathological T classification) were identified and entered into the predictive nomogram. The bootstrap-corrected C-index was 0.757. RPA stratification of the three prognostic groups showed obviously different prognosis. Only the high-risk group (patients with PLN ≤ 6 and TD, or PLN > 6) benefited from ACRT plus ACT when compared with surgery followed by ACRT or ACT, and surgery alone (5-year CSS: 70.8% vs. 57.8% vs. 15.6%, P < 0.001). Our nomogram predicts 5-year CSS after TME surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer and RPA-based stratification indicates that ACRT plus ACT post-surgery may be an important treatment plan with potentially ignificant survival advantages in high-risk URC. This may help to select candidates of adjuvant treatment in prospective studies.

A nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin-Shi; Huang, Ying; Yang, Xun; Feng, Ji-Feng

2015-01-01

Background: Inflammation plays an important role in cancer progression and prognosis. However, the prognostic values of inflammatory biomarkers in esophageal cancer (EC) were not established. In the present study, therefore, we initially used a nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: A total of 326 ESCC patients were included in this retrospective study. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR) were analyzed in the current study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analysis was also performed to evaluate the prognostic factors. A nomogram was established to predict the prognosis for CSS. Results: Patients were divided into 3 groups according to GPS (GPS 0, 1 and 2) and 2 groups according to NLR (≤3.45 and >3.45), PLR (≤166.5 and >166.5) and LMR (≤2.30 and >2.30). The 5-year CSS in patients with GPS 0, 1 and 2 were 49.2%, 26.8% and 11.9%, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, patients with NLR (>3.45), PLR (>166.5) and LMR (≤2.30) were significantly associated with decreased CSS, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002) and LMR (P=0.002) were independent prognostic factors in patients with ESCC. In addition, a nomogram was established according to all significantly independent factors for CSS. The Harrell’s c-index for CSS prediction was 0.72. Conclusion: GPS, PLR and LMR were potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with ESCC. The nomogram based on CSS could be used as an accurately prognostic prediction for patients with ESCC. PMID:26328248

Positive margins prediction in breast cancer conservative surgery: Assessment of a preoperative web-based nomogram.

PubMed

Alves-Ribeiro, Lídia; Osório, Fernando; Amendoeira, Isabel; Fougo, José Luís

2016-08-01

Margin status of the surgical specimen has been shown to be a prognostic and risk factor for local recurrence in breast cancer surgery. It has been studied as a topic of intervention to diminish reoperation rates and reduce the probability of local recurrence in breast conservative surgery (BCS). This study aims to validate the Dutch BreastConservation! nomogram, created by Pleijhus et al., which predicts preoperative probability of positive margins in BCS. Patients with diagnosis of breast cancer stages cT1-2, who underwent BCS at the Breast Center of São João University Hospital (BC-CHSJ) in 2013-2014, were included. Association and correlation were evaluated for clinical, radiological, pathological and surgical variables. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curves were used to assess nomogram parameters and discrimination. In our series of 253 patients, no associations were found between margin status and other studied variables (such as age or family history of breast cancer), except for weight (p-value = 0.045) and volume (p-value = 0.012) of the surgical specimen. Regarding the nomogram, a statistically significant association was shown between cN1 status and positive margins (p-value = 0.014). No differences were registered between the scores of patients with positive versus negative margins. Discrimination analysis showed an AUC of 0.474 for the basic and 0.508 for the expanded models. We cannot assume its external validation or its applicability to our cohort. Further studies are needed to determine the validity of this nomogram and achieve a broader view of currently available tools. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nomograms for two-dimensional echocardiography derived valvular and arterial dimensions in Caucasian children.

PubMed

Cantinotti, Massimiliano; Giordano, Raffaele; Scalese, Marco; Murzi, Bruno; Assanta, Nadia; Spadoni, Isabella; Maura, Crocetti; Marco, Marotta; Molinaro, Sabrina; Kutty, Shelby; Iervasi, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Despite recent advances, current pediatric echocardiographic nomograms for valvular and arterial dimensions remain limited. We prospectively studied healthy Caucasian Italian children by two-dimensional (2D) echocardiography. Echocardiographic measurements for 18 valvular and arterial dimensions were performed and models were generated testing for linear, logarithmic, exponential, and square root relationships. Heteroscedasticity was accounted for by White or Breusch-Pagan test. Age, weight, height, heart rate, and body surface area (BSA) were used as independent variables in different analyses to predict the mean values of each measurement. Structured Z-scores were then computed. In all, 1151 subjects (age 0 days to 17 years; 45% females; BSA 0.12-2.12m 2 ) were studied. The Haycock formula was used when presenting data as predicted values (mean±2 SDs) for a given BSA and within equations relating echocardiographic measurements to BSA. The predicted values and Z-score boundaries for all measurements are presented. We report echocardiographic nomograms for valvular and arterial dimensions derived from a large population of children. Integration of these data with those of previous reports would allow for a comprehensive coverage of pediatric 2D echocardiographic nomograms for measurement of 2D cardiac structures. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paracetamol poisoning: beyond the nomogram.

PubMed

Bateman, D Nicholas

2015-07-01

Paracetamol poisoning is the commonest overdose seen in the UK. The management of patients with paracetamol poisoning has been little changed for the past 40 years, with a weight related dose of antidote (acetylcysteine) and treatment based on nomograms relating paracetamol concentration to time from ingestion. In 2012 the UK Commission on Human Medicines recommended a revision of the nomogram, following the death of a young woman, lowering the treatment threshold for all patients. As a result many more patients were treated. This has resulted in a large increase in admissions and in the proportion suffering adverse reactions to the antidote acetylcysteine since, interestingly, higher paracetamol concentrations inhibit anaphylactoid reactions to the antidote. New approaches to assessing the toxicity of paracetamol are now emerging using new biomarkers in blood. This article discusses new approaches to risk assessment and treatment for paracetamol overdose based on recent research in this area. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

[Relationship between the refractive index and specific gravity of the rat urine (author's transl)].

PubMed

Kitagawa, Y F; Takahashi, T; Hayashi, H

1981-07-01

The relationship between the refractive index and specific gravity of urine was studied with specimens from 165 Sprague-Dawley rats, by graphic analysis of the plot of the refractometrically determined index against the specific gravity which was measured with a pycnometer. 1. A linear regression was demonstrated between the refractive index and specific gravity. 2. The nomogram fitted the data of even those samples with high refractive index and specific gravity, irrespective of changes in food or water intake and protein or glucose contents in the urine. 3. The nomogram was in good agreement, in respect of linearity, with the regression line derived from the conversion table of TS meter by the American Optical Corporation and also with the nomogram of the Japanese Society of Clinical Pathology. It approximated more closely to the former than to the latter.

Nomogram Method as Means for Resource Potential Efficiency Predicative Aid of Petrothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabdrakhmanova, K. F.; Izmailova, G. R.; Larin, P. A.; Vasilyeva, E. R.; Madjidov, M. A.; Marupov, S. R.

2018-05-01

The article describes the innovative approach when predicting the resource potential efficiency of petrothermal energy. Various geothermal gradients representative of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan republics regions were considered. With the help of nomograms, the authors analysed fluid temperature dependency graphs at the outlet and the thermal power versus fluid velocity along the wellbore. From the family of graphs plotted by us, velocities corresponding to specific temperature were found. Then, according to thermal power versus velocity curve, power levels corresponding to these velocities relative to the selected fluid temperature were found. On the basis of two dependencies obtained, nomograms were plotted. The result of determining the petrothermal energy production efficiency is a family of isocline lines that enables one to select the optimum temperature and injection rate to obtain the required amount of heat for a particular depth and geothermal gradient.

Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

PubMed

Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

2013-04-01

(i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th percentile in low-risk zone. Among 49 neonates with pre-discharge STB in high risk zone. 34 developed SHB (positive predictive value: 69.4%, sensitivity: 17.1%, positive likelihood ratio: 8.26). Among 342 neonates with pre-discharge STB in low risk zone, 32 developed PHB (negative predictive value: 90.6% and specificity: 42.5%, positive likelihood ratio: 0.37). Area under curve for this risk assessment strategy was 0.73. Hour-specific bilirubin nomogram and STB measurement can be used for predicting subsequent need of phototherapy. Further studies are needed to validate performance of risk demarcation zones defined in this hour-specific bilirubin nomogram.

New models and online calculator for predicting non-sentinel lymph node status in sentinel lymph node positive breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Kohrt, Holbrook E; Olshen, Richard A; Bermas, Honnie R; Goodson, William H; Wood, Douglas J; Henry, Solomon; Rouse, Robert V; Bailey, Lisa; Philben, Vicki J; Dirbas, Frederick M; Dunn, Jocelyn J; Johnson, Denise L; Wapnir, Irene L; Carlson, Robert W; Stockdale, Frank E; Hansen, Nora M; Jeffrey, Stefanie S

2008-03-04

Current practice is to perform a completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for breast cancer patients with tumor-involved sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), although fewer than half will have non-sentinel node (NSLN) metastasis. Our goal was to develop new models to quantify the risk of NSLN metastasis in SLN-positive patients and to compare predictive capabilities to another widely used model. We constructed three models to predict NSLN status: recursive partitioning with receiver operating characteristic curves (RP-ROC), boosted Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and multivariate logistic regression (MLR) informed by CART. Data were compiled from a multicenter Northern California and Oregon database of 784 patients who prospectively underwent SLN biopsy and completion ALND. We compared the predictive abilities of our best model and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Breast Cancer Nomogram (Nomogram) in our dataset and an independent dataset from Northwestern University. 285 patients had positive SLNs, of which 213 had known angiolymphatic invasion status and 171 had complete pathologic data including hormone receptor status. 264 (93%) patients had limited SLN disease (micrometastasis, 70%, or isolated tumor cells, 23%). 101 (35%) of all SLN-positive patients had tumor-involved NSLNs. Three variables (tumor size, angiolymphatic invasion, and SLN metastasis size) predicted risk in all our models. RP-ROC and boosted CART stratified patients into four risk levels. MLR informed by CART was most accurate. Using two composite predictors calculated from three variables, MLR informed by CART was more accurate than the Nomogram computed using eight predictors. In our dataset, area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.83/0.85 for MLR (n = 213/n = 171) and 0.77 for Nomogram (n = 171). When applied to an independent dataset (n = 77), AUC was 0.74 for our model and 0.62 for Nomogram. The composite predictors in our model were the product of angiolymphatic invasion and size of SLN metastasis, and the product of tumor size and square of SLN metastasis size. We present a new model developed from a community-based SLN database that uses only three rather than eight variables to achieve higher accuracy than the Nomogram for predicting NSLN status in two different datasets.

Quantifying risk of early relapse in patients with first demyelinating events: Prediction in clinical practice.

PubMed

Spelman, Tim; Meyniel, Claire; Rojas, Juan Ignacio; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Grand'Maison, Francois; Boz, Cavit; Alroughani, Raed; Havrdova, Eva; Horakova, Dana; Iuliano, Gerardo; Duquette, Pierre; Terzi, Murat; Grammond, Pierre; Hupperts, Raymond; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Pucci, Eugenio; Verheul, Freek; Fiol, Marcela; Van Pesch, Vincent; Cristiano, Edgardo; Petersen, Thor; Moore, Fraser; Kalincik, Tomas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Trojano, Maria; Butzkueven, Helmut

2017-09-01

Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.

Development and internal validation of a side-specific, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based nomogram for the prediction of extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Martini, Alberto; Gupta, Akriti; Lewis, Sara C; Cumarasamy, Shivaram; Haines, Kenneth G; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Tewari, Ashutosh K

2018-04-19

To develop a nomogram for predicting side-specific extracapsular extension (ECE) for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy. We retrospectively analysed data from 561 patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy between February 2014 and October 2015. To develop a side-specific predictive model, we considered the prostatic lobes separately. Four variables were included: prostate-specific antigen; highest ipsilateral biopsy Gleason grade; highest ipsilateral percentage core involvement; and ECE on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). A multivariable logistic regression analysis was fitted to predict side-specific ECE. A nomogram was built based on the coefficients of the logit function. Internal validation was performed using 'leave-one-out' cross-validation. Calibration was graphically investigated. The decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net clinical benefit. The study population consisted of 829 side-specific cases, after excluding negative biopsy observations (n = 293). ECE was reported on mpMRI and final pathology in 115 (14%) and 142 (17.1%) cases, respectively. Among these, mpMRI was able to predict ECE correctly in 57 (40.1%) cases. All variables in the model except highest percentage core involvement were predictors of ECE (all P ≤ 0.006). All variables were considered for inclusion in the nomogram. After internal validation, the area under the curve was 82.11%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and improved clinical risk prediction, especially when compared with relying on mpMRI prediction of ECE alone. When retrospectively applying the nomogram-derived probability, using a 20% threshold for performing nerve-sparing, nine out of 14 positive surgical margins (PSMs) at the site of ECE resulted above the threshold. We developed an easy-to-use model for the prediction of side-specific ECE, and hope it serves as a tool for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy and in the reduction of PSM in future series. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development and Validation of Web-Based Nomograms to Precisely Predict Conditional Risk of Site-Specific Recurrence for Patients With Completely Resected Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: A Multiinstitutional Study.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Zheng, Difan; Xie, Juntao; Li, Yuan; Wang, Yiyang; Li, Chenguang; Xiang, Jiaqing; Zhang, Yawei; Hu, Hong; Sun, Yihua; Chen, Haiquan

2018-06-15

There is currently no consensus regarding the optimal postoperative follow-up strategy for patients with completely resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to develop web-based nomograms to precisely predict site-specific postoperative recurrence in patients with NSCLC and to guide individual surveillance strategies including when to follow up and what diagnostic tests to perform. We investigated the pattern of recurrence in a series of 2,017 patients with NSCLC (squamous cell carcinoma and nonlepidic invasive adenocarcinoma) who underwent complete surgical resection at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (development cohort), and developed web-based clinicopathologic prediction models for conditional risk of site-specific recurrence based on Cox regression. The variables used in the analysis included sex, age, smoking history, tumor size, tumor histology, lymphovascular invasion, visceral pleural invasion, and pathologic TNM stage. A separate cohort of 3,308 patients with NSCLC from Shanghai Chest Hospital was used for external validation. In the development cohort and the external validation cohort for the established nomograms to predict overall recurrence, thorax recurrence, abdomen recurrence, neck recurrence, brain recurrence, and bone recurrence, the C-statistics of Harrell et al were 0.743 and 0.748, 0.728 and 0.703, 0.760 and 0.749, 0.779 and 0.757, 0.787 and 0.784, and 0.777 and 0.739, respectively. The calibration plots showed optimal agreement between nomogram-predicted 3-year recurrence-free survival and actual 3-year recurrence-free survival. These user-friendly nomograms can precisely predict site-specific recurrence in patients with completely resected NSCLC, based on clinicopathologic features. They may help physicians to make individual postoperative follow-up plans. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oncotype DX breast cancer recurrence score can be predicted with a novel nomogram using clinicopathologic data.

PubMed

Orucevic, Amila; Bell, John L; McNabb, Alison P; Heidel, Robert E

2017-05-01

Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS) breast cancer (BC) assay is costly, and performed in only ~1/3 of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive BC patients in the USA. We have now developed a user-friendly nomogram surrogate prediction model for ODX based on a large dataset from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to assist in selecting patients for which further ODX testing may not be necessary and as a surrogate for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available. Six clinicopathologic variables of 27,719 ODX-tested ER+/HER2-/lymph node-negative patients with 6-50 mm tumor size captured by the NCDB from 2010 to 2012 were assessed with logistic regression to predict high-risk or low-risk ODXRS test results with TAILORx-trial and commercial cut-off values; 12,763 ODX-tested patients in 2013 were used for external validation. The predictive accuracy of the regression model was yielded using a Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis. Model fit was analyzed by plotting the predicted probabilities against the actual probabilities. A user-friendly calculator version of nomograms is available online at the University of Tennessee Medical Center website (Knoxville, TN). Grade and progesterone receptor status were the highest predictors of both low-risk and high-risk ODXRS, followed by age, tumor size, histologic tumor type and lymph-vascular invasion (C-indexes-.0.85 vs. 0.88 for TAILORx-trial vs. commercial cut-off values, respectively). This is the first study of this scale showing confidently that clinicopathologic variables can be used for prediction of low-risk or high-risk ODXRS using our nomogram models. These novel nomograms will be useful tools to help physicians and patients decide whether further ODX testing is necessary and are excellent surrogates for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available.

A nomogram to predict brain metastasis as the first relapse in curatively resected non-small cell lung cancer patients.

PubMed

Won, Young-Woong; Joo, Jungnam; Yun, Tak; Lee, Geon-Kook; Han, Ji-Youn; Kim, Heung Tae; Lee, Jin Soo; Kim, Moon Soo; Lee, Jong Mog; Lee, Hyun-Sung; Zo, Jae Ill; Kim, Sohee

2015-05-01

Development of brain metastasis results in a significant reduction in overall survival. However, there is no an effective tool to predict brain metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We conducted this study to develop a feasible nomogram that can predict metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site in patients with curatively resected NSCLC. A retrospective review of NSCLC patients who had received curative surgery at National Cancer Center (Goyang, South Korea) between 2001 and 2008 was performed. We chose metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site after curative surgery as the primary endpoint of the study. A nomogram was modeled using logistic regression. Among 1218 patients, brain metastasis as the first relapse developed in 87 patients (7.14%) during the median follow-up of 43.6 months. Occurrence rates of brain metastasis were higher in patients with adenocarcinoma or those with a high pT and pN stage. Younger age appeared to be associated with brain metastasis, but this result was not statistically significant. The final prediction model included histology, smoking status, pT stage, and the interaction between adenocarcinoma and pN stage. The model showed fairly good discriminatory ability with a C-statistic of 69.3% and 69.8% for predicting brain metastasis within 2 years and 5 years, respectively. Internal validation using 2000 bootstrap samples resulted in C-statistics of 67.0% and 67.4% which still indicated good discriminatory performances. The nomogram presented here provides the individual risk estimate of developing metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site in patients with NSCLC who have undergone curative surgery. Surveillance programs or preventive treatment strategies for brain metastasis could be established based on this nomogram. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel nomogram for the treatment of astigmatism with femtosecond-laser arcuate incisions at the time of cataract surgery.

PubMed

Baharozian, Connor J; Song, Christian; Hatch, Kathryn M; Talamo, Jonathan H

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine an arcuate incision (AI) nomogram to treat astigmatism during femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery. This is a retrospective, cohort study. Femtosecond laser (FSL)-assisted transepithelial AIs were created at a 9.0 mm optical zone, 80% depth, centered on the limbus. We modified the manual Donnenfeld limbal relaxing incision nomogram to 70% for with-the-rule (WTR), 80% for oblique (OBL), and 100% for against-the-rule (ATR) astigmatism. The correction index (CI) equaled AI-induced astigmatism/target-induced astigmatism. Measures included preoperative keratometric corneal cylinder (Pre Kcyl), postoperative Kcyl (Post Kcyl), and postoperative residual refractive astigmatism (Post RRA). Mean Pre Kcyl and 1-2 months Post RRA in 161 eyes of 116 patients were 0.626±0.417 diopters (D) (range 0.5-2 D), and 0.495±0.400 D (range 0-1.5 D), respectively. Mean absolute astigmatic changes (Pre Kcyl-Post Kcyl) without accounting for axis change in the WTR, ATR, and OBL groups were 0.165±0.383 D ( P <0.001), 0.374±0.536 D ( P <0.001), and 0.253±0.416 D ( P =0.02), respectively. Mean absolute astigmatic changes using RRA as the postoperative measurement (Pre Kcyl-Post RRA) without accounting for axis change were 0.440±0.461 D ( P <0.001), 0.238±0.571 D ( P <0.05), 0.154±0.450 ( P =0.111) in WTR, ATR, and OBL groups, respectively. CIs for WTR, ATR, and OBL were 0.53, 1.01, and 0.95, respectively. There were no intraoperative or postoperative complications related to the AIs. Transepithelial FSL-AIs using the modified Donnenfeld nomogram show potential for management of mild to moderate corneal astigmatism. An increase in the magnitude or reduction of the optical zone size for the treatment of WTR and ATR astigmatism for this nomogram may further improve refractive accuracy.

Age-related nomograms for antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone for subfertile Chinese women in Singapore.

PubMed

Loy, See Ling; Cheung, Yin Bun; Fortier, Marielle Valerie; Ong, Chiou Li; Tan, Heng Hao; Nadarajah, Sadhana; Chan, Jerry Kok Yen; Viardot-Foucault, Veronique

2017-01-01

Antral follicle count (AFC) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) are known as the most reliable markers of a woman's ovarian reserve and are related to age. There is currently no specific local age-related centile charts for AFC and AMH. Therefore, we aim to examine the relationship between AFC and AMH with age and construct age-related nomograms among a subfertile Asian population. This is a study involving Chinese women who had their AFC and AMH measured as part of their subfertility screening from December 2010 until November 2014 in KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship of AFC and AMH with age, while age-related AFC and AMH nomograms for the 3rd, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles were produced using the lambda-mu-sigma method. A total of 1,009 women, aged 26 to 44 year-old, were included. On average, the AFC and AMH decreased respectively by 0.79 follicle (95% confidence interval -0.93, -0.64) and 0.38 ng/mL (95% confidence interval -0.43, -0.32) per year of age. The age-related nomograms of AFC showed an approximately linear pattern, inversely correlated with age, regardless of the percentile. For AMH, the pattern is linear for the 75th percentile and below but shows a slightly accelerating decline for the 90th and 97th percentile. Overall, there were large inter-individual variations in AFC and AMH up to about 40 year-old. The declines of AFC and AMH over age are mostly linear among subfertile Chinese women in Singapore. The age-related AFC and AMH nomograms could be used as a reference chart by fertility practitioners. However, future validation with longitudinal data is required.

The Half RR Rule: A Poor Rule of Thumb and Not a Risk Assessment Tool for QT Interval Prolongation.

PubMed

Berling, Ingrid; Isbister, Geoffrey K

2015-10-01

Measuring the QT interval on an electrocardiogram (ECG) is integral to risk assessment of Torsade de Pointes (TdP). This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of the 1/2 RR rule as a risk assessment tool for drug-induced TdP, comparing it to the QT nomogram, Bazett's corrected QT (QTcB), and Fridericia's corrected QT (QTcF). The authors calculated sensitivity and specificity of the 1/2 RR rule using a published data set of 129 cases of drug-induced TdP and 316 controls (noncardiotoxic overdoses), compared to the QT nomogram, QTcB > 500 msec and QTcF > 500 msec. To further determine the value of the 1/2 RR rule, its observed positive, and negative agreement were calculated when compared to the QT nomogram for determining an abnormal QT in eight samples of different drugs in overdose. The sensitivity and specificity of the 1/2 RR rule were 88% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 80% to 93%) and 53% (95% CI = 47% to 58%), respectively, compared to the QT nomogram (sensitivity = 97%, 95% CI = 92% to 99%; specificity = 99%, 95% CI = 97% to 100%). It was also less sensitive than QTcB > 500 msec and had a lower specificity than QTcB > 500 msec and QTcF > 500 msec. In drug overdose patients, the 1/2 RR rule had poor observed agreement averaging 41%, which was mainly due to poor positive agreement, except for amisulpride where there was good agreement. The 1/2 RR rule was not as sensitive as the QT nomogram or QTcB > 500 msec for drug-induced TdP. It had poor positive agreement in almost all overdose patients, resulting in over half of patients receiving unnecessary cardiac monitoring and repeat ECGs. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Predicting Overall Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Lung Cancer: Development and External Validation of the Amsterdam Prognostic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Louie, Alexander V., E-mail: Dr.alexlouie@gmail.com; Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts

Purpose: A prognostic model for 5-year overall survival (OS), consisting of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and a nomogram, was developed for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). Methods and Materials: A primary dataset of 703 ES-NSCLC SABR patients was randomly divided into a training (67%) and an internal validation (33%) dataset. In the former group, 21 unique parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were entered into an RPA model to predict OS. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed for RPA-selected factors to evaluate their relationship with OS. A nomogrammore » for OS was constructed based on factors significant in multivariate modeling and validated with calibration plots. Both the RPA and the nomogram were externally validated in independent surgical (n=193) and SABR (n=543) datasets. Results: RPA identified 2 distinct risk classes based on tumor diameter, age, World Health Organization performance status (PS) and Charlson comorbidity index. This RPA had moderate discrimination in SABR datasets (c-index range: 0.52-0.60) but was of limited value in the surgical validation cohort. The nomogram predicting OS included smoking history in addition to RPA-identified factors. In contrast to RPA, validation of the nomogram performed well in internal validation (r{sup 2}=0.97) and external SABR (r{sup 2}=0.79) and surgical cohorts (r{sup 2}=0.91). Conclusions: The Amsterdam prognostic model is the first externally validated prognostication tool for OS in ES-NSCLC treated with SABR available to individualize patient decision making. The nomogram retained strong performance across surgical and SABR external validation datasets. RPA performance was poor in surgical patients, suggesting that 2 different distinct patient populations are being treated with these 2 effective modalities.« less

A thermodynamic analysis of a solar-powered jet refrigeration system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.; Chai, V. W.

1980-01-01

The article describes and analyzes a method of using solar energy to drive a jet refrigeration system. A new technique is presented in the form of a performance nomogram combining the energy and momentum equations to determine the performance characteristics. A numerical example, using water as the working fluid, is given to illustrate the nomogram procedure. The resulting coefficient of performance was found comparable with other refrigeration systems such as the solar-absorption system or the solar-Rankine turbocompressor system.

Nomogram for 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuyzen-de Boer, G M; Gerestein, C G; Eijkemans, M J C; Burger, C W; Kooi, G S

2016-01-01

Extensive surgical procedures to achieve maximal cytoreduction in patients with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) are inevitably associated with postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to identify preoperative predictors of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC and to develop a nomogram for individual risk assessment. Patients in The Netherlands who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC between January 2004 and December 2007. All peri- and postoperative complications within 30 days after surgery were registered and classified. To investigate predictors of 30-day morbidity, a Cox proportional hazard model with backward stepwise elimination was utilized. The identified predictors were entered into a nomogram. The main outcome was to identify parameters that predict operative risk. 293 patients entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 136 (46%) patients. Thirty-day morbidity was seen in 99 (34%) patients. Morbidity could be predicted by age (p = 0.033; OR 1.024), preoperative hemoglobin (p = 0.194; OR 0.843), and WHO performance status (p = 0.015; OR 1.821) with a optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.62. Determinants co-morbidity status, serum CA125 level, platelet count, and presence of ascites were comparable in both groups. Thirty-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC could be predicted by age, hemoglobin, and WHO performance status. The generated nomogram could be valuable for predicting operative risk in the individual patient.

A randomized controlled trial investigating the use of a predictive nomogram for the selection of the FSH starting dose in IVF/ICSI cycles.

PubMed

Allegra, Adolfo; Marino, Angelo; Volpes, Aldo; Coffaro, Francesco; Scaglione, Piero; Gullo, Salvatore; La Marca, Antonio

2017-04-01

The number of oocytes retrieved is a relevant intermediate outcome in women undergoing IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). This trial compared the efficiency of the selection of the FSH starting dose according to a nomogram based on multiple biomarkers (age, day 3 FSH, anti-Müllerian hormone) versus an age-based strategy. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of women with an optimal number of retrieved oocytes defined as 8-14. At their first IVF/ICSI cycle, 191 patients underwent a long gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist protocol and were randomized to receive a starting dose of recombinant (human) FSH, based on their age (150 IU if ≤35 years, 225 IU if >35 years) or based on the nomogram. Optimal response was observed in 58/92 patients (63%) in the nomogram group and in 42/99 (42%) in the control group (+21%, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.35, P = 0.0037). No significant differences were found in the clinical pregnancy rate or the number of embryos cryopreserved per patient. The study showed that the FSH starting dose selected according to ovarian reserve is associated with an increase in the proportion of patients with an optimal response: large trials are recommended to investigate any possible effect on the live-birth rate. Copyright © 2017 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of methods for estimating the weight of preterm infants.

PubMed

Elser, A S; Vessey, J A

1995-09-01

Four methods of predicting a preterm infant's weight (upper mid-arm circumference, gestational age, tape measure nomogram, and guessing) were investigated to see which was the most accurate. The weights of 37 preterm neonates were initially guessed by an experienced clinician, then estimated by the other three approaches applied in a random order, and then confirmed through actual weighing. The correlations between the four estimated weights and the actual weights were .96, .84, .97, and .98, respectively. The tape measure nomogram method was the best overall approach for clinical use.

A novel nomogram for the treatment of astigmatism with femtosecond-laser arcuate incisions at the time of cataract surgery

PubMed Central

Baharozian, Connor J; Song, Christian; Hatch, Kathryn M; Talamo, Jonathan H

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine an arcuate incision (AI) nomogram to treat astigmatism during femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery. Methods This is a retrospective, cohort study. Femtosecond laser (FSL)-assisted transepithelial AIs were created at a 9.0 mm optical zone, 80% depth, centered on the limbus. We modified the manual Donnenfeld limbal relaxing incision nomogram to 70% for with-the-rule (WTR), 80% for oblique (OBL), and 100% for against-the-rule (ATR) astigmatism. The correction index (CI) equaled AI-induced astigmatism/target-induced astigmatism. Measures included preoperative keratometric corneal cylinder (Pre Kcyl), postoperative Kcyl (Post Kcyl), and postoperative residual refractive astigmatism (Post RRA). Results Mean Pre Kcyl and 1–2 months Post RRA in 161 eyes of 116 patients were 0.626±0.417 diopters (D) (range 0.5–2 D), and 0.495±0.400 D (range 0–1.5 D), respectively. Mean absolute astigmatic changes (Pre Kcyl–Post Kcyl) without accounting for axis change in the WTR, ATR, and OBL groups were 0.165±0.383 D (P<0.001), 0.374±0.536 D (P<0.001), and 0.253±0.416 D (P=0.02), respectively. Mean absolute astigmatic changes using RRA as the postoperative measurement (Pre Kcyl–Post RRA) without accounting for axis change were 0.440±0.461 D (P<0.001), 0.238±0.571 D (P<0.05), 0.154±0.450 (P=0.111) in WTR, ATR, and OBL groups, respectively. CIs for WTR, ATR, and OBL were 0.53, 1.01, and 0.95, respectively. There were no intraoperative or postoperative complications related to the AIs. Conclusion Transepithelial FSL-AIs using the modified Donnenfeld nomogram show potential for management of mild to moderate corneal astigmatism. An increase in the magnitude or reduction of the optical zone size for the treatment of WTR and ATR astigmatism for this nomogram may further improve refractive accuracy. PMID:29075096

A Monte Carlo investigation of lung brachytherapy treatment planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, J. G. H.; Furutani, K. M.; Thomson, R. M.

2013-07-01

Iodine-125 (125I) and Caesium-131 (131Cs) brachytherapy have been used in conjunction with sublobar resection to reduce the local recurrence of stage I non-small cell lung cancer compared with resection alone. Treatment planning for this procedure is typically performed using only a seed activity nomogram or look-up table to determine seed strand spacing for the implanted mesh. Since the post-implant seed geometry is difficult to predict, the nomogram is calculated using the TG-43 formalism for seeds in a planar geometry. In this work, the EGSnrc user-code BrachyDose is used to recalculate nomograms using a variety of tissue models for 125I and 131Cs seeds. Calculated prescription doses are compared to those calculated using TG-43. Additionally, patient CT and contour data are used to generate virtual implants to study the effects that post-implant deformation and patient-specific tissue heterogeneity have on perturbing nomogram-derived dose distributions. Differences of up to 25% in calculated prescription dose are found between TG-43 and Monte Carlo calculations with the TG-43 formalism underestimating prescription doses in general. Differences between the TG-43 formalism and Monte Carlo calculated prescription doses are greater for 125I than for 131Cs seeds. Dose distributions are found to change significantly based on implant deformation and tissues surrounding implants for patient-specific virtual implants. Results suggest that accounting for seed grid deformation and the effects of non-water media, at least approximately, are likely required to reliably predict dose distributions in lung brachytherapy patients.

Unplanned admission to intensive care after emergency hospitalisation: risk factors and development of a nomogram for individualising risk.

PubMed

Frost, Steven A; Alexandrou, Evan; Bogdanovski, Tony; Salamonson, Yenna; Parr, Michael J; Hillman, Ken M

2009-02-01

Unplanned admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with high mortality, having the highest incidence among patients who are emergency admissions to the hospital. This study was designed to identify factors associated with unplanned ICU admission in emergency admissions to hospital and develop an absolute risk tool to individualise the risk of an event during a hospital stay. Emergency department (ED) and in-patient hospital data from a large teaching hospital of consecutive admissions from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2007 aged over 14 years was included in this study. Patient data extracted from 126826 emergency presentations admitted as in-patients consisted of demographic and clinical variables. During an 11-year period 1582 incident unplanned ICU admissions occurred. Predictors of unplanned ICU admission included older age, being male, having a higher acuity triage category and a history of co-morbid conditions. Emergency department diagnostic groups associated with higher incidence of unplanned ICU admission included: sepsis, acute renal failure, lymphatic-hematopoietic tissue neoplasms, pneumonia, chronic-airways disease and bowel obstruction. The final model used to develop the nomogram had an ROC curve AUC of 0.7. This study identified factors associated with unplanned ICU admission and developed a nomogram to individualise risk prior to a patient being transferred from the ED. This nomogram provides clinicians the opportunity prior to transfer from the ED, to either (1) review the appropriateness of the ward level of planned transfer or (2) flag patients for follow-up on the general ward to assess for deterioration.

Clinico-pathological nomogram for predicting BRAF mutational status of metastatic colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Loupakis, Fotios; Moretto, Roberto; Aprile, Giuseppe; Muntoni, Marta; Cremolini, Chiara; Iacono, Donatella; Casagrande, Mariaelena; Ferrari, Laura; Salvatore, Lisa; Schirripa, Marta; Rossini, Daniele; De Maglio, Giovanna; Fasola, Gianpiero; Calvetti, Lorenzo; Pilotto, Sara; Carbognin, Luisa; Fontanini, Gabriella; Tortora, Giampaolo; Falcone, Alfredo; Sperduti, Isabella; Bria, Emilio

2016-01-12

In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), BRAFV600E mutation has been variously associated to specific clinico-pathological features. Two large retrospective series of mCRC patients from two Italian Institutions were used as training-set (TS) and validation-set (VS) for developing a nomogram predictive of BRAFV600E status. The model was internally and externally validated. In the TS, data from 596 mCRC patients were gathered (RAS wild-type (wt) 281 (47.1%); BRAFV600E mutated 54 (9.1%)); RAS and BRAFV600E mutations were mutually exclusive. In the RAS-wt population, right-sided primary (odds ratio (OR): 7.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-19.92), female gender (OR: 2.90, 95% CI 1.14-7.37) and mucinous histology (OR: 4.95, 95% CI 1.90-12.90) were independent predictors of BRAFV600E mutation, with high replication at internal validation (100%, 93% and 98%, respectively). A predictive nomogram was calculated: patients with the highest score (right-sided primary, female and mucinous) had a 81% chance to bear a BRAFV600E-mutant tumour; accuracy measures: AUC=0.812, SE:0.034, sensitivity:81.2%; specificity:72.1%. In the VS (508 pts, RAS wt: 262 (51.6%), BRAFV600E mutated: 49 (9.6%)), right-sided primary, female gender and mucinous histology were confirmed as independent predictors of BRAFV600E mutation with high accuracy. Three simple and easy-to-collect characteristics define a useful nomogram for predicting BRAF status in mCRC with high specificity and sensitivity.

DGKI methylation status modulates the prognostic value of MGMT in glioblastoma patients treated with combined radio-chemotherapy with temozolomide.

PubMed

Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Idbaih, Ahmed; Vauleon, Elodie; Marie, Yannick; Menei, Philippe; Boniface, Rachel; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Karayan-Tapon, Lucie; Quillien, Veronique; Sanson, Marc; de Tayrac, Marie; Delattre, Jean-Yves; Mosser, Jean

2014-01-01

Consistently reported prognostic factors for glioblastoma (GBM) are age, extent of surgery, performance status, IDH1 mutational status, and MGMT promoter methylation status. We aimed to integrate biological and clinical prognostic factors into a nomogram intended to predict the survival time of an individual GBM patient treated with a standard regimen. In a previous study we showed that the methylation status of the DGKI promoter identified patients with MGMT-methylated tumors that responded poorly to the standard regimen. We further evaluated the potential prognostic value of DGKI methylation status. 399 patients with newly diagnosed GBM and treated with a standard regimen were retrospectively included in this study. Survival modelling was performed on two patient populations: intention-to-treat population of all included patients (population 1) and MGMT-methylated patients (population 2). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to identify the main prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed for population 1. The prognostic value of DGKI promoter methylation status was evaluated on population 1 and population 2. The nomogram-based stratification of the cohort identified two risk groups (high/low) with significantly different median survival. We validated the prognostic value of DGKI methylation status for MGMT-methylated patients. We also demonstrated that the DGKI methylation status identified 22% of poorly responding patients in the low-risk group defined by the nomogram. Our results improve the conventional MGMT stratification of GBM patients receiving standard treatment. These results could help the interpretation of published or ongoing clinical trial outcomes and refine patient recruitment in the future.

[Establishment of risk evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer and its predictive value].

PubMed

Zhao, Junjie; Zhou, Rongjian; Zhang, Qi; Shu, Ping; Li, Haojie; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Liu, Fenglin; Chen, Weidong; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

2017-01-25

To establish an evaluation model of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and to assess its clinical significance. Clinical and pathologic data of the consecutive cases of gastric cancer admitted between April 2015 and December 2015 in Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 710 patients were enrolled in the study after 18 patients with other distant metastasis were excluded. The correlations between peritoneal metastasis and different factors were studied through univariate (Pearson's test or Fisher's exact test) and multivariate analyses (Binary Logistic regression). Independent predictable factors for peritoneal metastasis were combined to establish a risk evaluation model (nomogram). The nomogram was created with R software using the 'rms' package. In the nomogram, each factor had different scores, and every patient could have a total score by adding all the scores of each factor. A higher total score represented higher risk of peritoneal metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the established nomogram. Delong. Delong. Clarke-Pearson test was used to compare the difference of the area under the curve (AUC). The cut-off value was determined by the AUC, when the ROC curve had the biggest AUC, the model had the best sensitivity and specificity. Among 710 patients, 47 patients had peritoneal metastasis (6.6%), including 30 male (30/506, 5.9%) and 17 female (17/204, 8.3%); 31 were ≥ 60 years old (31/429, 7.2%); 38 had tumor ≥ 3 cm(38/461, 8.2%). Lauren classification indicated that 2 patients were intestinal type(2/245, 0.8%), 8 patients were mixed type(8/208, 3.8%), 11 patients were diffuse type(11/142, 7.7%), and others had no associated data. CA19-9 of 13 patients was ≥ 37 kU/L(13/61, 21.3%); CA125 of 11 patients was ≥ 35 kU/L(11/36, 30.6%); CA72-4 of 11 patients was ≥ 10 kU/L(11/39, 28.2%). Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 26 patients was ≥ 2.37(26/231, 11.3%). Multivariate analysis showed that Lauren classification (HR=8.95, 95%CI:1.32-60.59, P=0.025), CA125(HR=17.45, 95%CI:5.54-54.89, P=0.001), CA72-4(HR=20.06, 95%CI:5.05-79.68, P=0.001), and NLR (HR=4.16, 95%CI:1.17-14.75, P=0.032) were independent risk factors of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer. In the nomogram, the highest score was 241, including diffuse or mixed Lauren classification (54 score), CA125 ≥ 35 kU/L (66 score), CA72-4 ≥ 10 kU/L (100 score), and NLR ≥ 2.37 (21 score), which represented a highest risk of peritoneal metastasis (more than 90%). The AUC of nomogram was 0.912, which was superior than any single variable (AUC of Lauren classification: 0.678; AUC of CA125: 0.720; AUC of CA72-4: 0.792; AUC of NLR: 0.613, all P=0.000). The total score of nomogram increased according to the TNM stage, and was highest in the peritoneal metastasis group (F=49.1, P=0.000). When the cut-off value calculated by ROC analysis was set at 140, the model could best balanced the sensitivity (0.79) and the specificity (0.87). Only 5% of patients had peritoneal metastasis when their nomogram scores were lower than 140, while 58% of patients had peritoneal metastasis when their scores were ≥ 140(χ 2 =69.1, P=0.000). The risk evaluation model established with Lauren classification, CA125, CA72-4 and NLR can effectively predict the risk of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer, and provide the reference to preoperative staging and choice of therapeutic strategy.

Applications guide for waste heat recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moynihan, P. I.

1983-01-01

The state-of-the-art of commercially available organic Rankine cycle (ORC) hardware from a literature search and industry survey is assessed. Engineering criteria for applying ORC technology are established, and a set of nomograms to enable the rapid sizing of the equipment is presented. A comparison of an ORC system with conventional heat recovery techniques can be made with a nomogram developed for a recuperative heat exchanger. A graphical technique for evaluating the economic aspects of an ORC system and conventional heat recovery method is discussed: also included is a description of anticipated future trends in organic Rankine cycle R&D.

Prognostic factors in breast phyllodes tumors: a nomogram based on a retrospective cohort study of 404 patients.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhi-Rui; Wang, Chen-Chen; Sun, Xiang-Jie; Yang, Zhao-Zhi; Chen, Xing-Xing; Shao, Zhi-Ming; Yu, Xiao-Li; Guo, Xiao-Mao

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to explore the independent prognostic factors related to postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with breast phyllodes tumors (PTBs). A retrospective analysis was conducted in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center. According to histological type, patients with benign PTBs were classified as a low-risk group, while borderline and malignant PTBs were classified as a high-risk group. The Cox regression model was adopted to identify factors affecting postoperative RFS in the two groups, and a nomogram was generated to predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. Among the 404 patients, 168 (41.6%) patients had benign PTB, 184 (45.5%) had borderline PTB, and 52 (12.9%) had malignant PTB. Fifty-five patients experienced postoperative local recurrence, including six benign cases, 26 borderline cases, and 22 malignant cases; the three histological types of PTB had local recurrence rates of 3.6%, 14.1%, and 42.3%, respectively. Stromal cell atypia was an independent prognostic factor for RFS in the low-risk group, while the surgical approach and tumor border were independent prognostic factors for RFS in the high-risk group, and patients receiving simple excision with an infiltrative tumor border had a higher recurrence rate. A nomogram developed based on clinicopathologic features and surgical approaches could predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. For high-risk patients, this predictive nomogram based on tumor border, tumor residue, mitotic activity, degree of stromal cell hyperplasia, and atypia can be applied for patient counseling and clinical management. The efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy remains uncertain. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Definition of normality of pressure-flow parameters based on observations in asymptomatic men.

PubMed

Rosario, Derek J; Woo, Henry H; Chapple, Christopher R

2008-01-01

Clinical nomograms for differentiating obstructed from unobstructed voiding and poor detrusor contractility from normal contractility have traditionally been drawn on the basis of symptomatic response to outflow tract surgery or on urodynamic changes in men with LUTS before and after surgery. The aim of this study was to examine pressure-flow parameters in asymptomatic male volunteers before age-related changes in the lower urinary tract had taken place and to assess detrusor contractility and outflow conditions during physiological bladder filling against clinically used pressure-flow nomograms. Thirty-seven healthy male subjects between the ages of 18 and 40 years volunteered to undergo AUM. A total of 66 fill-void cycles in 25 individuals were evaluable. Mean p(det.Qmax) for the group was 53 +/- 3 cmH(2)O with a mean Q(max) of 24 +/- 2 ml sec(-1). URA of 21 cmH(2)O defined the upper border of normality for the outflow condition. Schäfer's OCO showed the most consistent relationship between estimated urethral pressure at minimal flow and true measured urethral closure pressure. From a clinical perspective, the linear nomograms (ICS and Schäfer) are more easily accessible with the ICS BOOI and obstruction index being the simplest to calculate manually. Minimal differences found between these urodynamic nomograms confirm the clinical value of recommending a single method to facilitate future comparisons between studies. An upper limit of normality for the male outflow condition can be defined by an URA of 21 cmH(2)O, AGN of 40 cmH(2)O or OCO of 1. Results above these reference values should be considered abnormal in this age group and where identified in a different age-group should be explained by physiological or pathophysiological events.

Anatomic features of enhancing renal masses predict malignant and high-grade pathology: a preoperative nomogram using the RENAL Nephrometry score.

PubMed

Kutikov, Alexander; Smaldone, Marc C; Egleston, Brian L; Manley, Brandon J; Canter, Daniel J; Simhan, Jay; Boorjian, Stephen A; Viterbo, Rosalia; Chen, David Y T; Greenberg, Richard E; Uzzo, Robert G

2011-08-01

Counseling patients with enhancing renal mass currently occurs in the context of significant uncertainty regarding tumor pathology. We evaluated whether radiographic features of renal masses could predict tumor pathology and developed a comprehensive nomogram to quantitate the likelihood of malignancy and high-grade pathology based on these features. We retrospectively queried Fox Chase Cancer Center's prospectively maintained database for consecutive renal masses where a Nephrometry score was available. All patients in the cohort underwent either partial or radical nephrectomy. The individual components of Nephrometry were compared with histology and grade of resected tumors. We used multiple logistic regression to develop nomograms predicting the malignancy of tumors and likelihood of high-grade disease among malignant tumors. Nephrometry score was available for 525 of 1750 renal masses. Nephrometry score correlated with both tumor grade (p < 0.0001) and histology (p < 0.0001), such that small endophytic nonhilar tumors were more likely to represent benign pathology. Conversely, large interpolar and hilar tumors more often represented high-grade cancers. The resulting nomogram from these data offers a useful tool for the preoperative prediction of tumor histology (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.76) and grade (AUC: 0.73). The model was subjected to out-of-sample cross-validation; however, lack of external validation is a limitation of the study. The current study is the first to objectify the relationship between tumor anatomy and pathology. Using the Nephrometry score, we developed a tool to quantitate the preoperative likelihood of malignant and high-grade pathology of an enhancing renal mass. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Locoregional Recurrence in Patients Treated With Accelerated Partial-Breast Irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wobb, Jessica L.; Chen, Peter Y., E-mail: PChen@beaumont.edu; Shah, Chirag

Purpose: To develop a nomogram taking into account clinicopathologic features to predict locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients treated with accelerated partial-breast irradiation (APBI) for early-stage breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 2000 breasts (1990 women) were treated with APBI at William Beaumont Hospital (n=551) or on the American Society of Breast Surgeons MammoSite Registry Trial (n=1449). Techniques included multiplanar interstitial catheters (n=98), balloon-based brachytherapy (n=1689), and 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (n=213). Clinicopathologic variables were gathered prospectively. A nomogram was formulated utilizing the Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict for LRR. This was validated by generating a bias-corrected indexmore » and cross-validated with a concordance index. Results: Median follow-up was 5.5 years (range, 0.9-18.3 years). Of the 2000 cases, 435 were excluded because of missing data. Univariate analysis found that age <50 years, pre-/perimenopausal status, close/positive margins, estrogen receptor negativity, and high grade were associated with a higher frequency of LRR. These 5 independent covariates were used to create adjusted estimates, weighting each on a scale of 0-100. The total score is identified on a points scale to obtain the probability of an LRR over the study period. The model demonstrated good concordance for predicting LRR, with a concordance index of 0.641. Conclusions: The formulation of a practical, easy-to-use nomogram for calculating the risk of LRR in patients undergoing APBI will help guide the appropriate selection of patients for off-protocol utilization of APBI.« less

Predicting survival of men with recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Dell'Oglio, Paolo; Suardi, Nazareno; Boorjian, Stephen A; Fossati, Nicola; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Tian, Zhe; Moschini, Marco; Capitanio, Umberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Montorsi, Francesco; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Briganti, Alberto

2016-02-01

To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram aimed at predicting cancer-specific mortality (CSM) after biochemical recurrence (BCR) among prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) with or without adjuvant external beam radiotherapy (aRT) and/or hormonal therapy (aHT). The development cohort included 689 consecutive PCa patients treated with RP between 1987 and 2011 with subsequent BCR, defined as two subsequent prostate-specific antigen values >0.2 ng/ml. Multivariable competing-risks regression analyses tested the predictors of CSM after BCR for the purpose of 5-year CSM nomogram development. Validation (2000 bootstrap resamples) was internally tested. External validation was performed into a population of 6734 PCa patients with BCR after treatment with RP at the Mayo Clinic from 1987 to 2011. The predictive accuracy (PA) was quantified using the receiver operating characteristic-derived area under the curve and the calibration plot method. The 5-year CSM-free survival rate was 83.6% (confidence interval [CI]: 79.6-87.2). In multivariable analyses, pathologic stage T3b or more (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.42; p = 0.008), pathologic Gleason score 8-10 (HR: 2.19; p = 0.003), lymph node invasion (HR: 3.57; p = 0.001), time to BCR (HR: 0.99; p = 0.03) and age at BCR (HR: 1.04; p = 0.04), were each significantly associated with the risk of CSM after BCR. The bootstrap-corrected PA was 87.4% (bootstrap 95% CI: 82.0-91.7%). External validation of our nomogram showed a good PA at 83.2%. We developed and externally validated the first nomogram predicting 5-year CSM applicable to contemporary patients with BCR after RP with or without adjuvant treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Echocardiographic nomograms for chamber diameters and areas in Caucasian children.

PubMed

Cantinotti, Massimiliano; Scalese, Marco; Murzi, Bruno; Assanta, Nadia; Spadoni, Isabella; De Lucia, Vittoria; Crocetti, Maura; Cresti, Alberto; Gallotta, Milena; Marotta, Marco; Tyack, Karin; Molinaro, Sabrina; Iervasi, Giorgio

2014-12-01

Although a quantitative evaluation of cardiac chamber dimensions in pediatric echocardiography is often important, nomograms for these structures are limited. The aim of this study was to establish reliable echocardiographic nomograms of cardiac chamber diameters and areas in a wide population of children. A total of 1,091 Caucasian Italian healthy children (age range, 0 days to 17 years; 44.8% female) with body surface areas (BSAs) ranging from 0.12 to 1.8 m(2) were prospectively enrolled. Twenty-two two-dimensional and M-mode measurements of atrial and ventricular chamber diameters and areas were performed. Models using linear, logarithmic, exponential, and square-root relationships were tested. Heteroscedasticity was tested by the White test and the Breusch-Pagan test. Age, weight, height, and BSA, calculated by the Haycock formula, were used as the independent variables in different analyses to predict the mean value of each echocardiographic measurement. The influence of various confounders, including gender, type of delivery, prematurity, and interobserver variability, was also evaluated. Structured Z scores were then computed. The Haycock formula provided the best fit and was used when presenting data as predicted values (mean ± 2 SDs) for a given BSA and within equations relating echocardiographic measurements to BSA. Confounders were not included in the final models, because they did not show significant effects for most of the measurements. Echocardiographic reference values are presented for chamber area and diameters, derived from a large population of healthy children. These data partly cover a gap in actual pediatric echocardiographic nomograms. Further studies are required to reinforce these data, as well as to evaluate other parameters and ethnicities. Copyright © 2014 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic nomogram and score to predict overall survival in locally advanced untreated pancreatic cancer (PROLAP)

PubMed Central

Vernerey, Dewi; Huguet, Florence; Vienot, Angélique; Goldstein, David; Paget-Bailly, Sophie; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc; Glimelius, Bengt; Artru, Pascal; Moore, Malcolm J; André, Thierry; Mineur, Laurent; Chibaudel, Benoist; Benetkiewicz, Magdalena; Louvet, Christophe; Hammel, Pascal; Bonnetain, Franck

2016-01-01

Background: The management of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) patients remains controversial. Better discrimination for overall survival (OS) at diagnosis is needed. We address this issue by developing and validating a prognostic nomogram and a score for OS in LAPC (PROLAP). Methods: Analyses were derived from 442 LAPC patients enrolled in the LAP07 trial. The prognostic ability of 30 baseline parameters was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were done with Harrell's C-index, calibration plot and bootstrap sample procedures. On the basis of the final model, a prognostic nomogram and a score were developed, and externally validated in 106 consecutive LAPC patients treated in Besançon Hospital, France. Results: Age, pain, tumour size, albumin and CA 19-9 were independent prognostic factors for OS. The final model had good calibration, acceptable discrimination (C-index=0.60) and robust internal validity. The PROLAP score has the potential to delineate three different prognosis groups with median OS of 15.4, 11.7 and 8.5 months (log-rank P<0.0001). The score ability to discriminate OS was externally confirmed in 63 (59%) patients with complete clinical data derived from a data set of 106 consecutive LAPC patients; median OS of 18.3, 14.1 and 7.6 months for the three groups (log-rank P<0.0001). Conclusions: The PROLAP nomogram and score can accurately predict OS before initiation of induction chemotherapy in LAPC-untreated patients. They may help to optimise clinical trials design and might offer the opportunity to define risk-adapted strategies for LAPC management in the future. PMID:27404456

Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Severe Neutropenia Associated With Docetaxel-Based Chemotherapy in Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Hirasawa, Yosuke; Nakashima, Jun; Sugihara, Toru; Takizawa, Issei; Gondo, Tatsuo; Nakagami, Yoshihiro; Horiguchi, Yutaka; Ohno, Yoshio; Namiki, Kazunori; Ohori, Makoto; Tachibana, Masaaki

2017-02-01

Neutropenia is a major adverse event of docetaxel-based chemotherapy. The present study was undertaken to evaluate the incidence of neutropenia and to develop a nomogram for predicting Grade 4 neutropenia during the first cycle of docetaxel-based chemotherapy in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). This study included 112 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel-based systemic chemotherapy. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for Grade 4 neutropenia in the first cycle of chemotherapy. Sixty-two of 112 patients (55.4%) developed Grade 4 neutropenia in the first cycle of docetaxel-based chemotherapy. There were significant differences in age, baseline white blood cell count, and baseline neutrophil count between patients with non-Grade 4 neutropenia and those with Grade 4 neutropenia in univariate analyses. The serum prostate-specific antigen level, hemoglobin level, creatinine, albumin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, metastatic sites, extent of disease, and history of external beam radiotherapy to the prostate were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR], 1.08; P = .019) and baseline neutrophil counts (OR, 0.79; P = .045) were significant independent risk factors for severe neutropenia. A nomogram and a calibration plot on the basis of these results were developed from a multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the probability of Grade 4 neutropenia. Age and baseline neutrophil counts were significant independent risk factors for Grade 4 neutropenia. The nomogram to predict it provides useful information for the management of patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A score system for complete cytoreduction in selected recurrent ovarian cancer patients undergoing secondary cytoreductive surgery: predictors- and nomogram-based analyses.

PubMed

Bogani, Giorgio; Tagliabue, Elena; Signorelli, Mauro; Ditto, Antonino; Martinelli, Fabio; Chiappa, Valentina; Mosca, Lavinia; Sabatucci, Ilaria; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Lorusso, Domenica; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2018-05-01

To test the applicability of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie (AGO) and Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK) criteria in predicting complete cytoreduction (CC) in patients undergoing secondary cytoreductive surgery (SCS) for recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC). Data of consecutive patients undergoing SCS were reviewed. The Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie OVARian cancer study group (AGO-OVAR) and MSK criteria were retrospectively applied. Nomograms, based on AGO criteria, MSK criteria and both AGO and MSK criteria were built in order to assess the probability to achieve CC at SCS. Overall, 194 patients met the inclusion criteria. CC was achieved in 161 (82.9%) patients. According to the AGO-OVAR criteria, we observed that CC was achieved in 87.0% of patients with positive AGO score. However, 45 out of 71 (63.4%) patients who did not fulfilled the AGO score had CC. Similarly, CC was achieved in 87.1%, 61.9% and 66.7% of patients for whom SCS was recommended, had to be considered and was not recommended, respectively. In order to evaluate the predictive value of the AGO-OVAR and MSK criteria we built 2 separate nomograms (c-index: 0.5900 and 0.5989, respectively) to test the probability to achieve CC at SCS. Additionally, we built a nomogram using both the aforementioned criteria (c-index: 0.5857). The AGO and MSK criteria help identifying patients deserving SCS. However, these criteria might be strict, thus prohibiting a beneficial treatment in patients who do not met these criteria. Further studies are needed to clarify factors predicting CC at SCS. Copyright © 2018. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology.

Plasma protein osmotic pressure equations and nomogram for sheep.

PubMed

Yamada, S; Grady, M K; Licko, V; Staub, N C

1991-08-01

The equations developed by Landis and Pappenheimer (Handbook of Physiology. Circulation, 1963, p. 961-1034) for calculating the protein osmotic pressure of human plasma proteins have been frequently used for other animal species without regard to the fractional albumin concentration or correction for protein-protein interaction. Using an electronic osmometer, we remeasured the protein osmotic pressure of purified sheep albumin and sheep plasma partially depleted of albumin. We measured protein osmotic pressures of serial dilutions over the concentration range 0-180 g/l for albumin and 0-100 g/l for the albumin-depleted proteins at room temperature (26 degrees C). Using a nonlinear least squares parameter-fitting computer program, we obtained the equation of best fit for purified albumin, and then we used that equation together with the measured albumin fraction to obtain the best-fit equation for the nonalbumin proteins. The equation for albumin is IIcmH2O,39 degrees C = 0.382C + 0.0028C2 + 0.000013C3, where C is albumin concentration in g/l. The equation for the nonalbumin fraction is IIcmH2O,39 degrees C = 0.119C + 0.0016C2. Up to 200- and 100-g/l protein concentration, respectively, these equations give the least standard error of the estimate for each of the virial coefficients. The computed number-average molecular weight for the nonalbumin proteins is 222,000. Using the new equations, we constructed a nomogram, based on the one of Nitta and co-workers (Tohoku J. Exp. Med. 135: 43-49, 1981). We tested the nomogram using 144 random samples of sheep plasma and lymph from 31 sheep. We obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.99 between the measured and nomogram estimates of protein osmotic pressure.

Development of a nomogram for femtosecond laser astigmatic keratotomy for astigmatism after keratoplasty.

PubMed

St Clair, Ryan M; Sharma, Anushree; Huang, David; Yu, Fei; Goldich, Yakov; Rootman, David; Yoo, Sonia; Cabot, Florence; Jun, Jason; Zhang, Lijun; Aldave, Anthony J

2016-04-01

To develop a nomogram for femtosecond laser astigmatic keratotomy (AK) to treat post-keratoplasty astigmatism. Three academic medical centers. Retrospective interventional case series. A review of post-keratoplasty femtosecond laser AK was performed. Uncorrected (UDVA) and corrected (CDVA) distance visual acuities, manifest refraction, and keratometry were recorded preoperatively and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. The location, length, depth, and diameter of the AK incisions were recorded, and the surgically induced astigmatic correction was related to these variables using regression analysis. One hundred forty femtosecond laser AK procedures were performed after penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) (n = 129) or deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty (DALK) (n =11), with 89 procedures (80 PKP, 9 DALK) included in the analysis. The mean CDVA improved from 20/59 (0.47 logMAR ± 0.38 [SD]) preoperatively to 20/45 (0.35 ± 0.31 logMAR) postoperatively (P = .013) (n = 46). The mean keratometric astigmatism decreased from 8.26 ± 2.90 diopters (D) preoperatively to 3.62 ± 2.59 D postoperatively (P < .0001) (n = 89). The mean refractive cylinder decreased from 6.77 ± 2.80 D preoperatively to 2.85 ± 2.57 D postoperatively (P < .0001) (n = 69). A nomogram for femtosecond laser AK to treat post-keratoplasty astigmatism was generated using regression analysis. Femtosecond laser AK significantly improved UDVA and CDVA and significantly reduced keratometric astigmatism and refractive cylinder after keratoplasty. The nomogram generated should improve the accuracy of post-keratoplasty femtosecond laser AK. None of the authors has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2016 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Outcome From Adult Bacterial Meningitis in a High-HIV-Seroprevalence, Resource-Poor Setting Using the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS).

PubMed

Wall, Emma C; Mukaka, Mavuto; Scarborough, Matthew; Ajdukiewicz, Katherine M A; Cartwright, Katharine E; Nyirenda, Mulinda; Denis, Brigitte; Allain, Theresa J; Faragher, Brian; Lalloo, David G; Heyderman, Robert S

2017-02-15

Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in adults residing in resource-poor countries is associated with mortality rates >50%. To improve outcome, interventional trials and standardized clinical algorithms are urgently required. To optimize these processes, we developed and validated an outcome prediction tool to identify ABM patients at greatest risk of death. We derived a nomogram using mortality predictors derived from a logistic regression model of a discovery database of adult Malawian patients with ABM (n = 523 [65%] cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] culture positive). We validated the nomogram internally using a bootstrap procedure and subsequently used the nomogram scores to further interpret the effects of adjunctive dexamethasone and glycerol using clinical trial data from Malawi. ABM mortality at 6-week follow-up was 54%. Five of 15 variables tested were strongly associated with poor outcome (CSF culture positivity, CSF white blood cell count, hemoglobin, Glasgow Coma Scale, and pulse rate), and were used in the derivation of the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS) nomogram. The C-index (area under the curve) was 0.76 (95% confidence interval, .71-.80) and calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic = 5.48, df = 8, P = .705). Harmful effects of adjunctive glycerol were observed in groups with relatively low predicted risk of poor outcome (25%-50% risk): Case Fatality Rate of 21% in the placebo group and 52% in the glycerol group (P < .001). This effect was not seen with adjunctive dexamethasone. MAMS provides a novel tool for predicting prognosis and improving interpretation of ABM clinical trials by risk stratification in resource-poor settings. Whether MAMS can be applied to non-HIV-endemic countries requires further evaluation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

How many oxygen cylinders do you need to take on transport? A nomogram for cylinder size and duration

PubMed Central

Lutman, D; Petros, A J

2006-01-01

When undertaking patient retrieval, it is important to take adequate supplies of oxygen to ensure patient safety. Oxygen can be delivered via a flowmeter into a facemask or used to drive pneumatic ventilators. Given the lack of space in the back of an ambulance or helicopter, the numbers of cylinders that can be taken is limited, hence the number needed to complete the journey must be carefully calculated prior to embarking. We have produced nomograms to predict how many oxygen cylinders will be consumed during a given journey when using either a flowmeter or a commonly used transport ventilator. PMID:16921085

How many oxygen cylinders do you need to take on transport? A nomogram for cylinder size and duration.

PubMed

Lutman, D; Petros, A J

2006-09-01

When undertaking patient retrieval, it is important to take adequate supplies of oxygen to ensure patient safety. Oxygen can be delivered via a flowmeter into a facemask or used to drive pneumatic ventilators. Given the lack of space in the back of an ambulance or helicopter, the numbers of cylinders that can be taken is limited, hence the number needed to complete the journey must be carefully calculated prior to embarking. We have produced nomograms to predict how many oxygen cylinders will be consumed during a given journey when using either a flowmeter or a commonly used transport ventilator.

Validation of nomograms for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence in carcinoma of the major salivary glands.

PubMed

Hay, Ashley; Migliacci, Jocelyn; Zanoni, Daniella Karassawa; Patel, Snehal; Yu, Changhong; Kattan, Michael W; Ganly, Ian

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center salivary carcinoma nomograms predicting overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence with an external validation dataset. The validation dataset comprised 123 patients treated between 2010 and 2015 at our institution. They were evaluated by assessing discrimination (concordance index [C-index]) and calibration (plotting predicted vs actual probabilities for quintiles). The validation cohort (n = 123) showed some differences to the original cohort (n = 301). The validation cohort had less high-grade cancers (P = .006), less lymphovascular invasion (LVI; P < .001) and shorter follow-up of 19 months versus 45.6 months. Validation showed a C-index of 0.833 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.758-0.908), 0.807 (95% CI 0.717-0.898), and 0.844 (95% CI 0.768-0.920) for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence, respectively. The 3 salivary gland nomograms performed well using a contemporary validation dataset, despite limitations related to sample size, follow-up, and differences in clinical and pathology characteristics between the original and validation cohorts. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

PubMed

Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

2018-02-01

To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of outcome following early salvage radiotherapy among patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Briganti, Alberto; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Joniau, Steven; Boorjian, Stephen A; Cozzarini, Cesare; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Hinkelbein, Wolfgang; Haustermans, Karin; Tombal, Bertrand; Shariat, Shahrokh; Sun, Maxine; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Montorsi, Francesco; Van Poppel, Hein; Wiegel, Thomas

2014-09-01

Early salvage radiotherapy (eSRT) represents the only curative option for prostate cancer patients experiencing biochemical recurrence (BCR) for local recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP). To develop and internally validate a novel nomogram predicting BCR after eSRT in patients treated with RP. Using a multi-institutional cohort, 472 node-negative patients who experienced BCR after RP were identified. All patients received eSRT, defined as local radiation to the prostate and seminal vesicle bed, delivered at prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤ 0.5 ng/ml. BCR after eSRT was defined as two consecutive PSA values ≥ 0.2 ng/ml. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models predicting BCR after eSRT were fitted. Regression-based coefficients were used to develop a nomogram predicting the risk of 5-yr BCR after eSRT. The discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the Harrell concordance index and the calibration plot method. Two hundred bootstrap resamples were used for internal validation. Mean follow-up was 58 mo (median: 48 mo). Overall, 5-yr BCR-free survival rate after eSRT was 73.4%. In univariable analyses, pathologic stage, Gleason score, and positive surgical margins were associated with the risk of BCR after eSRT (all p ≤ 0.04). These results were confirmed in multivariable analysis, where all the previously mentioned covariates as well as pre-RT PSA were significantly associated with BCR after eSRT (all p ≤ 0.04). A coefficient-based nomogram demonstrated a bootstrap-corrected discrimination of 0.74. Our study is limited by its retrospective nature and use of BCR as an end point. eSRT leads to excellent cancer control in patients with BCR for presumed local failure after RP. We developed the first nomogram to predict outcome after eSRT. Our model facilitates risk stratification and patient counselling regarding the use of secondary therapy for individuals experiencing BCR after RP. Salvage radiotherapy leads to optimal cancer control in patients who experience recurrence after radical prostatectomy. We developed a novel tool to identify the best candidates for salvage treatment and to allow selection of patients to be considered for additional forms of therapy. Copyright © 2013 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Anastomotic Leak in Elderly Patients After Colectomy: Nomogram-Based Assessment From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Program Procedure-Targeted Cohort.

PubMed

Rencuzogullari, Ahmet; Benlice, Cigdem; Valente, Michael; Abbas, Maher A; Remzi, Feza H; Gorgun, Emre

2017-05-01

Elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery have increasingly become under scrutiny by accounting for the largest fraction of geriatric postoperative deaths and a significant proportion of all postoperative complications, including anastomotic leak. This study aimed to determine predictors of anastomotic leak in elderly patients undergoing colectomy by creating a novel nomogram for simplistic prediction of anastomotic leak risk in a given patient. This study was a retrospective review. The database review of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was conducted at a single institution. Patients aged ≥65 years who underwent elective segmental colectomy with an anastomosis at different levels (abdominal or low pelvic) in 2012-2013 were identified from the multi-institutional procedure-targeted database. We constructed a stepwise multiple logistic regression model for anastomotic leak as an outcome; predictors were selected in a stepwise fashion using the Akaike information criterion. The validity of the nomogram was externally tested on elderly patients (≥65 years of age) from the 2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program colectomy-targeted database. A total of 10,392 patients were analyzed, and anastomotic leak occurred in 332 (3.2%). Of the patients who developed anastomotic leak, 192 (57.8%) were men (p < 0.001). Based on unadjusted analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of anastomotic leak were ASA score III and IV (p < 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.004), diabetes mellitus (p = 0.003), smoking history (p = 0.014), weight loss (p = 0.013), previously infected wound (p = 0.005), omitting mechanical bowel preparation (p = 0.005) and/or preoperative oral antibiotic use (p < 0.001), and wounds classified as contaminated or dirty/infected (p = 0.008). Patients who developed anastomotic leak had a longer length of hospital stay (17 vs 7 d; p < 0.001) and operative time (191 vs 162 min; p < 0.001). A multivariate model and nomogram were created. This study was limited by its retrospective nature and short-term follow-up (30 d). An accurate prediction of anastomotic leak affecting morbidity and mortality after colorectal surgery using the proposed nomogram may facilitate decision making in elderly patients for healthcare providers.

How can we maximize the diagnostic utility of uroflow?: ICI-RS 2017.

PubMed

Gammie, Andrew; Rosier, Peter; Li, Rui; Harding, Chris

2018-01-09

To gauge the current level of diagnostic utility of uroflowmetry and to suggest areas needing research to improve this. A summary of the debate held at the 2017 meeting of the International Consultation on Incontinence Research Society, with subsequent analysis by the authors. Limited diagnostic sensitivity and specificity exist for maximum flow rates, multiple uroflow measurements, and flow-volume nomograms. There is a lack of clarity in flow rate curve shape description and uroflow time measurement. There is a need for research to combine uroflowmetry with other non-invasive indicators. Better standardizations of test technique, flow-volume nomograms, uroflow shape descriptions, and time measurements are required. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wound healing profiles of hyperopic-small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE)

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu-Chi; Ang, Heng Pei; Teo, Ericia Pei Wen; Lwin, Nyein Chan; Yam, Gary Hin Fai; Mehta, Jodhbir S.

2016-01-01

Refractive surgical treatment of hyperopia still remains a challenge for refractive surgeons. A new nomogram of small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) procedure has recently been developed for the treatment of hyperopia. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the wound healing and inflammatory responses of this new nomogram (hyperopic-SMILE), and compared them to those of hyperopic-laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK), using a rabbit model. A total of 26 rabbits were used, and slit lamp biomicroscopy, autorefractor/keratometer, intraocular pressure measurement, anterior segment optical coherence tomography, corneal topography, and in vivo confocal microscopy examinations were performed during the study period of 4 weeks. The corneas were then harvested and subject to immunofluorescence of markers for inflammation (CD11b), wound healing (fibronectin) and keratocyte response (HSP47). The lenticule ultrastructual changes were also analyzed by transmission electron microscopy. Out results showed that hyperopic-SMILE effectively steepened the cornea. Compared to hyperopic-LASIK, hyperopic-SMILE had less postoperative wound healing response and stromal interface reaction, especially in higher refractive correction. However, compared to myopic-SMILE, hyperopic-SMILE resulted in more central deranged collagen fibrils. These results provide more perspective into this new treatment option for hyperopia, and evidence for future laser nomogram modification. PMID:27418330

Yonsei nomogram: A predictive model of new-onset chronic kidney disease after on-clamp partial nephrectomy in patients with T1 renal tumors.

PubMed

Abdel Raheem, Ali; Shin, Tae Young; Chang, Ki Don; Santok, Glen Denmer R; Alenzi, Mohamed Jayed; Yoon, Young Eun; Ham, Won Sik; Han, Woong Kyu; Choi, Young Deuk; Rha, Koon Ho

2018-06-19

To develop a predictive nomogram for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability in the long term after partial nephrectomy. A retrospective analysis was carried out of 698 patients with T1 renal tumors undergoing partial nephrectomy at a tertiary academic institution. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was carried out based on parameters proven to have an impact on postoperative renal function. Patients with incomplete data, <12 months follow up and preoperative chronic kidney disease stage III or greater were excluded. The study end-points were to identify independent risk factors for new-onset chronic kidney disease development, as well as to construct a predictive model for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after partial nephrectomy. The median age was 52 years, median tumor size was 2.5 cm and mean warm ischemia time was 28 min. A total of 91 patients (13.1%) developed new-onset chronic kidney disease at a median follow up of 60 months. The chronic kidney disease-free survival rates at 1, 3, 5 and 10 year were 97.1%, 94.4%, 85.3% and 70.6%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, age (1.041, P = 0.001), male sex (hazard ratio 1.653, P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 1.921, P = 0.046), tumor size (hazard ratio 1.331, P < 0.001) and preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (hazard ratio 0.937, P < 0.001) were independent predictors for new-onset chronic kidney disease. The C-index for chronic kidney disease-free survival was 0.853 (95% confidence interval 0.815-0.895). We developed a novel nomogram for predicting the 5-year chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after on-clamp partial nephrectomy. This model might have an important role in partial nephrectomy decision-making and follow-up plan after surgery. External validation of our nomogram in a larger cohort of patients should be considered. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Validation of the Web-Based IBTR! 2.0 Nomogram to Predict for Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kindts, Isabelle, E-mail: Isabelle.kindts@uzleuven.be; Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven; Laenen, Annouschka

Purpose: To evaluate the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram, which predicts 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy with and without radiation therapy for breast cancer, by using a large, external, and independent cancer center database. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively identified 1898 breast cancer cases, treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation therapy at the University Hospital Leuven from 2000 to 2007, with requisite data for the nomogram variables. Clinicopathologic factors were assessed. Two definitions of IBTR were considered where simultaneous regional or distant recurrence were either censored (conform IBTR! 2.0) or included as event. Validity of the prediction algorithm wasmore » tested in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance probability estimate and Harrell's concordance index. The mean predicted and observed 10-year estimates were compared for the entire cohort and for 4 risk groups predefined by nomogram-predicted IBTR risks, and a calibration plot was drawn. Results: Median follow-up was 10.9 years. The 10-year IBTR rates were 1.3% and 2.1%, according to the 2 definitions of IBTR. The validation cohort differed from the development cohort with respect to the administration of hormonal therapy, surgical section margins, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size. In univariable analysis, younger age (P=.002) and a positive nodal status (P=.048) were significantly associated with IBTR, with a trend for the omission of hormonal therapy (P=.061). The concordance probability estimate and concordance index varied between 0.57 and 0.67 for the 2 definitions of IBTR. In all 4 risk groups the model overestimated the IBTR risk. In particular, between the lowest-risk groups a limited differentiation was suggested by the calibration plot. Conclusions: The IBTR! 2.0 predictive model for IBTR in breast cancer patients shows substandard discriminative ability, with an overestimation of the risk in all subgroups.« less

Validation of the Web-Based IBTR! 2.0 Nomogram to Predict for Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Therapy.

PubMed

Kindts, Isabelle; Laenen, Annouschka; Peeters, Stephanie; Janssen, Hilde; Depuydt, Tom; Nevelsteen, Ines; Van Limbergen, Erik; Weltens, Caroline

2016-08-01

To evaluate the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram, which predicts 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy with and without radiation therapy for breast cancer, by using a large, external, and independent cancer center database. We retrospectively identified 1898 breast cancer cases, treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation therapy at the University Hospital Leuven from 2000 to 2007, with requisite data for the nomogram variables. Clinicopathologic factors were assessed. Two definitions of IBTR were considered where simultaneous regional or distant recurrence were either censored (conform IBTR! 2.0) or included as event. Validity of the prediction algorithm was tested in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance probability estimate and Harrell's concordance index. The mean predicted and observed 10-year estimates were compared for the entire cohort and for 4 risk groups predefined by nomogram-predicted IBTR risks, and a calibration plot was drawn. Median follow-up was 10.9 years. The 10-year IBTR rates were 1.3% and 2.1%, according to the 2 definitions of IBTR. The validation cohort differed from the development cohort with respect to the administration of hormonal therapy, surgical section margins, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size. In univariable analysis, younger age (P=.002) and a positive nodal status (P=.048) were significantly associated with IBTR, with a trend for the omission of hormonal therapy (P=.061). The concordance probability estimate and concordance index varied between 0.57 and 0.67 for the 2 definitions of IBTR. In all 4 risk groups the model overestimated the IBTR risk. In particular, between the lowest-risk groups a limited differentiation was suggested by the calibration plot. The IBTR! 2.0 predictive model for IBTR in breast cancer patients shows substandard discriminative ability, with an overestimation of the risk in all subgroups. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Erect penile dimensions in a cohort of 778 Middle Eastern men: establishment of a nomogram.

PubMed

Habous, Mohamad; Tealab, Alaa; Williamson, Ben; Binsaleh, Saleh; El Dawy, Sherif; Mahmoud, Saad; Abdelwahab, Osama; Nassar, Mohammed; Mulhall, John P; Veale, David; Muir, Gordon

2015-06-01

Accurate data regarding the size of the erect penis are of great importance to several disciplines working with male patients, but little high-quality research exists on the subject, particularly in different ethnic groups and for erect penis size. The aim of this study was to create a nomogram of erect penile dimensions in a large sample of Middle Eastern men. A retrospective cohort study of 778 men (mean age 43.7; range 20-82) attending urological outpatient clinics in Saudi Arabia was conducted. Exclusion criteria were age under 18 years, a presenting complaint of small or short penis, Peyronie's disease or complaint of congenital curvature, clinical hypogonadism, and previous penile surgery or trauma. Three erect penile dimensions following induction of erection using intracavernosal injection of Quadrimix. Mean patient body mass index (BMI) was 29.09 (standard deviation [SD] 5.76). The mean suprapubic skin-to-penile tip erect length was 12.53 cm (SD 1.93); the mean erect length from the symphysis pubis to the penile tip was 14.34 cm (SD 1.86); and the mean erect shaft circumference was 11.50 cm (SD 1.74). A nomogram was constructed and statistical analysis performed, demonstrating a weak negative correlation between BMI and erect penile length measured from the suprapubic skin (r = -0.283, P < 0.000) but not from bone to tip, and a weak negative correlation between age and both erect penile length measurements (skin to tip r = -0.177, P < 0.0005; bone to tip r = -0.099, P = 0.006). A nomogram for Middle Eastern men can be used as a standard when advising men with small penis anxiety. The importance of measuring erect size and allowing for infra-pubic fat interference in measurement is emphasized. We envisage that this tool can be used to educate and reassure concerned men about the size of their penises. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Prognostic impact of sarcopenia in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone.

PubMed

Go, Se-Il; Park, Mi Jung; Song, Haa-Na; Kim, Hoon-Gu; Kang, Myoung Hee; Lee, Hyang Rae; Kim, Yire; Kim, Rock Bum; Lee, Soon Il; Lee, Gyeong-Won

2016-12-01

Sarcopenia is known to be related to an increased risk of chemotherapy toxicity and to a poor prognosis in patients with malignancy. We assessed the prognostic role of sarcopenia in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). In total, 187 consecutive patients with DLBCL treated with induction rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP) immunochemotherapy were reviewed. Sarcopenia was defined as the lowest sex-specific quartile of the skeletal muscle index, calculated by dividing the pectoralis muscle area by the height. Clinical outcomes were compared between the sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic groups. A nomogram was constructed from the Cox regression model for overall survival (OS). Treatment-related mortality (21.7 vs. 5.0%, P  = 0.002) and early discontinuation of treatment (32.6 vs. 14.9%, P  = 0.008) were more common in the sarcopenic group than in the non-sarcopenic group. The 5 year progression-free survival (PFS) rates were 35.3% in the sarcopenic group and 65.8% in the non-sarcopenic group ( P  < 0.001). The 5 year OS rates were 37.3% in the sarcopenic group and 68.1% in the non-sarcopenic group ( P  < 0.001). Sarcopenia and the five variables of the International Prognostic Index (IPI) were independent prognostic factors in a multivariate analysis for PFS and OS and were used to construct the nomogram. The calibration plot showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. The c index of the nomogram (0.80) was higher than those of other prognostic indices (IPI, 0.77, P  = 0.009; revised-IPI, 0.74, P  < 0.001; National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI, 0.77, P  = 0.062). Sarcopenia is associated with intolerance to standard R-CHOP chemotherapy as well as a poor prognosis. Moreover, sarcopenia itself can be included in prognostic models in DLBCL.

PCA3-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer and high grade cancer on initial transrectal guided biopsy.

PubMed

Elshafei, Ahmed; Chevli, K Kent; Moussa, Ayman S; Kara, Onder; Chueh, Shih-Chieh; Walter, Peter; Hatem, Asmaa; Gao, Tianming; Jones, J Stephen; Duff, Michael

2015-12-01

To develop a validated prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) based nomogram that predicts likelihood of overall prostate cancer (PCa) and intermediate/high grade prostate cancer (HGPCa) in men pursuing initial transrectal prostate biopsy (TRUS-PBx). Data were collected on 3,675 men with serum prostate specific antigen level (PSA) ≤ 20 ng/ml who underwent initial prostate biopsy with at least 10 cores sampling at time of the biopsy. Two logistic regression models were constructed to predict overall PCa and HGPCa incorporating age, race, family history (FH) of PCa, PSA at diagnosis, PCA3, total prostate volume (TPV), and digital rectal exam (DRE). One thousand six hundred twenty (44%) patients had biopsy confirmed PCa with 701 men (19.1%) showing HGPCa. Statistically significant predictors of overall PCa were age (P < 0.0001, OR. 1.51), PSA at diagnosis (P < 0.0001, OR.1.95), PCA3 (P < 0.0001, OR.3.06), TPV (P < 0.0001, OR.0.47), FH (P = 0.003, OR.1.32), and abnormal DRE (P = 0.001, OR. 1.32). While for HGPCa, predictors were age (P < 0.0001, OR.1.77), PSA (P < 0.0001, OR.2.73), PCA3 (P < 0.0001, OR.2.26), TPV (P < 0.0001, OR.0.4), and DRE (P < 0.0001, OR.1.53). Two nomograms were reconstructed for predicted overall PCa probability at time of initial biopsy with a concordance index of 0.742 (Fig. 1), and HGPCa with a concordance index of 0.768 (Fig. 2). Our internally validated initial biopsy PCA3 based nomogram is reconstructed based on a large dataset. The c-index indicates high predictive accuracy, especially for high grade PCa and improves the ability to predict biopsy outcomes. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nomogram to Predict Graft Thickness in Descemet Stripping Automated Endothelial Keratoplasty: An Eye Bank Study.

PubMed

Bae, Steven S; Menninga, Isaac; Hoshino, Richard; Humphreys, Christine; Chan, Clara C

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict postcut thickness of corneal grafts prepared at an eye bank for Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK). Retrospective chart review was performed of DSAEK graft preparations by 3 experienced technicians from April 2012 to May 2017 at the Eye Bank of Canada-Ontario Division. Variables collected included the following: donor demographics, death-to-preservation time, death-to-processing time, precut tissue thickness, postcut tissue thickness, microkeratome head size, endothelial cell count, cut technician, and rate of perforation. Linear regression models were generated for each microkeratome head size (300 and 350 μm). A total of 780 grafts were processed during the study period. Twelve preparation attempts resulted in perforation (1.5%) and were excluded. Mean precut tissue thickness was 510 ± 49 μm (range: 363-670 μm). Mean postcut tissue thickness was 114 ± 22 μm (range: 57-193 μm). Seventy-nine percent (608/768) of grafts were ≤130 μm. The linear regression models included precut thickness and donor age, which were able to predict the thickness to within 25 μm 80% of the time. We report a nomogram to predict thickness of DSAEK corneal grafts prepared in an eye bank setting, which was accurate to within 25 μm 80% of the time. Other eye banks could consider performing similar analyses.

Fetal nasal bone length at 11(+0) - 13(+6) weeks of gestation: an evaluation of 554 consecutive cases.

PubMed

Cansu, A; Ozgur, H; Guven, S; Dinc, G; Dinc, H

2014-01-01

To develop a nomogram for estimating nasal bone length (NBL) at 11(+0) - 13(+6) weeks of gestation in 554 consecutive cases and to determine the value of NBL measurement in screening for chromosomal abnormalities. NBL and crown-rump length (CRL) were examined in 554 fetuses at 11(+0) - 13(+6) weeks' gestation. A nomogram for NBL was developed with data from 479 healthy fetuses in which fetal profile examination was possible. Reference values, including percentiles, weie calculated for each gestational age. A linear correlation was noted between CRL and NBL in healthy fetuses at 11(+0) - 11(+6), 12(+0) - 12(+6) and 13(+0) - 13(+6) weeks of gestation. Mean NBL was 2.18 +/- 0.53 mm, 2.46 +/- 0.45 mm, and 2.91 +/- 0.55 mm in healthy fetuses, for these time frames, respectively. NBL increased significantly with CRL from respective means of 2.26 +/- 0.43, 2.60 +/- 0.48, 2.77 +/- 0.43, and 3.16 +/- 0.52 mm at 45 - 54.9, 55 - 64.9, 65 +/- 74.9, and 75 - 84 mm. The authors developed a NBL nomogram with data from normal, healthy Turkish fetuses at 11(+0) - 13(+6) weeks of gestation. These reference ranges may prove useful in prenatal screening and diagnosis of syndromes known to be associated with nasal hypoplasia.

Nomograms for Prediction of Outcome With or Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Patients With Endometrial Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of PORTEC-1 and PORTEC-2 Trials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Creutzberg, Carien L., E-mail: c.l.creutzberg@lumc.nl; Stiphout, Ruud G.P.M. van; Nout, Remi A.

Background: Postoperative radiation therapy for stage I endometrial cancer improves locoregional control but is without survival benefit. To facilitate treatment decision support for individual patients, accurate statistical models to predict locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse (DR), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS) are required. Methods and Materials: Clinical trial data from the randomized Post Operative Radiation Therapy for Endometrial Cancer (PORTEC-1; N=714 patients) and PORTEC-2 (N=427 patients) trials and registered group (grade 3 and deep invasion, n=99) were pooled for analysis (N=1240). For most patients (86%) pathology review data were available; otherwise original pathology data were used. Trial variablesmore » which were clinically relevant and eligible according to data constraints were age, stage, given treatment (pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), vaginal brachytherapy (VBT), or no adjuvant treatment, FIGO histological grade, depth of invasion, and lymph-vascular invasion (LVSI). Multivariate analyses were based on Cox proportional hazards regression model. Predictors were selected based on a backward elimination scheme. Model results were expressed by the c-index (0.5-1.0; random to perfect prediction). Two validation sets (n=244 and 291 patients) were used. Results: Accuracy of the developed models was good, with training accuracies between 0.71 and 0.78. The nomograms validated well for DR (0.73), DFS (0.69), and OS (0.70), but validation was only fair for LRR (0.59). Ranking of variables as to their predictive power showed that age, tumor grade, and LVSI were highly predictive for all outcomes, and given treatment for LRR and DFS. The nomograms were able to significantly distinguish low- from high-probability patients for these outcomes. Conclusions: The nomograms are internally validated and able to accurately predict long-term outcome for endometrial cancer patients with observation, pelvic EBRT, or VBT after surgery. These models facilitate decision support in daily clinical practice and can be used for patient counseling and shared decision making, selecting patients who benefit most from adjuvant treatment, and generating new hypotheses.« less

A short history of nomograms and tables used for thermal radiation calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Seán. M.; Johnson, R. Barry

2016-09-01

The theoretical concept of a perfect thermal radiator, the blackbody, was first introduced by the German physicist Gustav Robert Kirchhoff in 1860. By the latter half of the nineteenth century it had become the object of intense theoretical and experimental investigation. While an attempt at trying to theoretically understand the behavior of radiation emitted from a blackbody was undertaken by many eminent physicists of the day, its solution was not found until 1900 when Max Planck put forward his now famous law for thermal radiation. Today, of course, understanding blackbody behavior is vitally important to many fields including infrared systems, illumination, pyrometry, spectroscopy, astronomy, thermal engineering, cryogenics, and meteorology. Mathematically, the form Planck's law takes is rather cumbersome meaning calculations made with it before the advent of modern computers were rather tedious, dramatically slowing the process of computation. Fortunately, during those early days of the twentieth century researchers quickly realized Planck's equation, and the various functions closely related to it, readily lend themselves to being given a graphical, mechanical, or numerically tabulated form for their evaluation. The first of these computational aids to appear were tables. These arose shortly after Planck introduced his equation, were produced in the greatest number, and remained unsurpassed in their level of accuracy compared to all other aids made. It was also not long before nomograms designed to aid thermal radiation calculations appeared. Essentially a printed chart and requiring nothing more than a straightedge to use, nomograms were cheap and extremely easy to use. Facilitating instant answers to a range of quantities relating to thermal radiation, a number were produced and the inventiveness displayed in some was quite remarkable. In this paper we consider the historical development of many of the nomograms and tables developed and used by generations of scientists and engineers before their sudden and irrevocable decline shortly after the arrival of affordable digital computers and hand-held electronic calculators during the mid-1970s. This work represents a continuation of our earlier work on a number of radiation slide rules developed and used for thermal radiation calculations, with all three of these computational aids being the subject of a forthcoming book.

Topics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mathematics Teaching, 1971

1971-01-01

Problems involving divisibility, the ten coin triangle, five times a week with 4 D, a nomogram for the lens formula, the box and ladder problem, chains of circles, tessellating hexagons, topological woggles, and numbers of triangles are discussed. (CT)

Prostate implant nomograms for the North American scientific {sup 103}Pd seed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Jay J.; Stevens, Ritchie N

Palladium-103-({sup 103}Pd) seed has been increasingly used in prostate implantation as either definitive or boost therapy because of its shorter half-life and higher initial dose rate. Because a growing number of radiation oncologists prefer real-time implantation in the operating room, it will be helpful if the total activity of the seeds can be determined based on the gland size before the patient is taken to the operating room. Based on our clinic data, nomograms have therefore been developed for one of the widely used {sup 103}Pd seeds, the MED3633 seed, which is produced by North American Scientific, Inc. (NASI). Themore » total activities for implant volume ranging from 15 cc to 55 cc are provided for both seed 'monotherapy' and seed boost.« less

Consistency of clinical biomechanical measures between three different institutions: implications for multi-center biomechanical and epidemiological research.

PubMed

Myer, Gregory D; Wordeman, Samuel C; Sugimoto, Dai; Bates, Nathaniel A; Roewer, Benjamin D; Medina McKeon, Jennifer M; DiCesare, Christopher A; Di Stasi, Stephanie L; Barber Foss, Kim D; Thomas, Staci M; Hewett, Timothy E

2014-05-01

Multi-center collaborations provide a powerful alternative to overcome the inherent limitations to single-center investigations. Specifically, multi-center projects can support large-scale prospective, longitudinal studies that investigate relatively uncommon outcomes, such as anterior cruciate ligament injury. This project was conceived to assess within- and between-center reliability of an affordable, clinical nomogram utilizing two-dimensional video methods to screen for risk of knee injury. The authors hypothesized that the two-dimensional screening methods would provide good-to-excellent reliability within and between institutions for assessment of frontal and sagittal plane biomechanics. Nineteen female, high school athletes participated. Two-dimensional video kinematics of the lower extremity during a drop vertical jump task were collected on all 19 study participants at each of the three facilities. Within-center and between-center reliability were assessed with intra- and inter-class correlation coefficients. Within-center reliability of the clinical nomogram variables was consistently excellent, but between-center reliability was fair-to-good. Within-center intra-class correlation coefficient for all nomogram variables combined was 0.98, while combined between-center inter-class correlation coefficient was 0.63. Injury risk screening protocols were reliable within and repeatable between centers. These results demonstrate the feasibility of multi-site biomechanical studies and establish a framework for further dissemination of injury risk screening algorithms. Specifically, multi-center studies may allow for further validation and optimization of two-dimensional video screening tools. 2b.

Lower- and higher-order aberrations predicted by an optomechanical model of arcuate keratotomy for astigmatism.

PubMed

Navarro, Rafael; Palos, Fernando; Lanchares, Elena; Calvo, Begoña; Cristóbal, José A

2009-01-01

To develop a realistic model of the optomechanical behavior of the cornea after curved relaxing incisions to simulate the induced astigmatic change and predict the optical aberrations produced by the incisions. ICMA Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas and Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain. A 3-dimensional finite element model of the anterior hemisphere of the ocular surface was used. The corneal tissue was modeled as a quasi-incompressible, anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive behavior strongly dependent on the physiological collagen fibril distribution. Similar behaviors were assigned to the limbus and sclera. With this model, some corneal incisions were computer simulated after the Lindstrom nomogram. The resulting geometry of the biomechanical simulation was analyzed in the optical zone, and finite ray tracing was performed to compute refractive power and higher-order aberrations (HOAs). The finite-element simulation provided new geometry of the corneal surfaces, from which elevation topographies were obtained. The surgically induced astigmatism (SIA) of the simulated incisions according to the Lindstrom nomogram was computed by finite ray tracing. However, paraxial computations would yield slightly different results (undercorrection of astigmatism). In addition, arcuate incisions would induce significant amounts of HOAs. Finite-element models, together with finite ray-tracing computations, yielded realistic simulations of the biomechanical and optical changes induced by relaxing incisions. The model reproduced the SIA indicated by the Lindstrom nomogram for the simulated incisions and predicted a significant increase in optical aberrations induced by arcuate keratotomy.

Sonographic Measurement of Fetal Ear Length in Turkish Women with a Normal Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Özdemir, Mucize Eriç; Uzun, Işıl; Karahasanoğlu, Ayşe; Aygün, Mehmet; Akın, Hale; Yazıcıoğlu, Fehmi

2014-01-01

Background: Abnormal fetal ear length is a feature of chromosomal disorders. Fetal ear length measurement is a simple measurement that can be obtained during ultrasonographic examinations. Aims: To develop a nomogram for fetal ear length measurements in our population and investigate the correlation between fetal ear length, gestational age, and other standard fetal biometric measurements. Study Design: Cohort study. Methods: Ear lengths of the fetuses were measured in normal singleton pregnancies. The relationship between gestational age and fetal ear length in millimetres was analysed by simple linear regression. In addition, the correlation of fetal ear length measurements with biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length were evaluated.Ear length measurements were obtained from fetuses in 389 normal singleton pregnancies ranging between 16 and 28 weeks of gestation. Results: A nomogram was developed by linear regression analysis of the parameters ear length and gestational age. Fetal ear length (mm) = y = (1.348 X gestational age)−12.265), where gestational ages is in weeks. A high correlation was found between fetal ear length and gestational age, and a significant correlation was also found between fetal ear length and the biparietal diameter (r=0.962; p<0.001). Similar correlations were found between fetal ear length and head circumference, and fetal ear length and femur length. Conclusion: The results of this study provide a nomogram for fetal ear length. The study also demonstrates the relationship between ear length and other biometric measurements. PMID:25667783

An outcome prediction model for exsanguinating patients with blunt abdominal trauma after damage control laparotomy: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Wang, Shang-Yu; Liao, Chien-Hung; Fu, Chih-Yuan; Kang, Shih-Ching; Ouyang, Chun-Hsiang; Kuo, I-Ming; Lin, Jr-Rung; Hsu, Yu-Pao; Yeh, Chun-Nan; Chen, Shao-Wei

2014-04-28

We present a series of patients with blunt abdominal trauma who underwent damage control laparotomy (DCL) and introduce a nomogram that we created to predict survival among these patients. This was a retrospective study. From January 2002 to June 2012, 91 patients underwent DCL for hemorrhagic shock. We excluded patients with the following characteristics: a penetrating abdominal injury, age younger than 18 or older than 65 years, a severe or life-threatening brain injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] ≥ 4), emergency department (ED) arrival more than 6 hours after injury, pregnancy, end-stage renal disease, or cirrhosis. In addition, we excluded patients who underwent DCL after ICU admission or later in the course of hospitalization. The overall mortality rate was 61.5%: 35 patients survived and 56 died. We identified independent survival predictors, which included a preoperative Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score < 8 and a base excess (BE) value < -13.9 mEq/L. We created a nomogram for outcome prediction that included four variables: preoperative GCS, initial BE, preoperative diastolic pressure, and preoperative cardiopulmonary cerebral resuscitation (CPCR). DCL is a life-saving procedure performed in critical patients, and devastating clinical outcomes can be expected under such dire circumstances as blunt abdominal trauma with exsanguination. The nomogram presented here may provide ED physicians and trauma surgeons with a tool for early stratification and risk evaluation in critical, exsanguinating patients.

Methods for determining time of death.

PubMed

Madea, Burkhard

2016-12-01

Medicolegal death time estimation must estimate the time since death reliably. Reliability can only be provided empirically by statistical analysis of errors in field studies. Determining the time since death requires the calculation of measurable data along a time-dependent curve back to the starting point. Various methods are used to estimate the time since death. The current gold standard for death time estimation is a previously established nomogram method based on the two-exponential model of body cooling. Great experimental and practical achievements have been realized using this nomogram method. To reduce the margin of error of the nomogram method, a compound method was developed based on electrical and mechanical excitability of skeletal muscle, pharmacological excitability of the iris, rigor mortis, and postmortem lividity. Further increasing the accuracy of death time estimation involves the development of conditional probability distributions for death time estimation based on the compound method. Although many studies have evaluated chemical methods of death time estimation, such methods play a marginal role in daily forensic practice. However, increased precision of death time estimation has recently been achieved by considering various influencing factors (i.e., preexisting diseases, duration of terminal episode, and ambient temperature). Putrefactive changes may be used for death time estimation in water-immersed bodies. Furthermore, recently developed technologies, such as H magnetic resonance spectroscopy, can be used to quantitatively study decompositional changes. This review addresses the gold standard method of death time estimation in forensic practice and promising technological and scientific developments in the field.

Risk prediction of hepatotoxicity in paracetamol poisoning.

PubMed

Wong, Anselm; Graudins, Andis

2017-09-01

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the developed world. A paracetamol treatment nomogram has been used for over four decades to help determine whether patients will develop hepatotoxicity without acetylcysteine treatment, and thus indicates those needing treatment. Despite this, a small proportion of patients still develop hepatotoxicity. More accurate risk predictors would be useful to increase the early detection of patients with the potential to develop hepatotoxicity despite acetylcysteine treatment. Similarly, there would be benefit in early identification of those with a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity, as this group may be safely treated with an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. To review the current literature related to risk prediction tools that can be used to identify patients at increased risk of hepatotoxicity. A systematic literature review was conducted using the search terms: "paracetamol" OR "acetaminophen" AND "overdose" OR "toxicity" OR "risk prediction rules" OR "hepatotoxicity" OR "psi parameter" OR "multiplication product" OR "half-life" OR "prothrombin time" OR "AST/ALT (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase)" OR "dose" OR "biomarkers" OR "nomogram". The search was limited to human studies without language restrictions, of Medline (1946 to May 2016), PubMed and EMBASE. Original articles pertaining to the theme were identified from January 1974 to May 2016. Of the 13,975 articles identified, 60 were relevant to the review. Paracetamol treatment nomograms: Paracetamol treatment nomograms have been used for decades to help decide the need for acetylcysteine, but rarely used to determine the risk of hepatotoxicity with treatment. Reported paracetamol dose and concentration: A dose ingestion >12 g or serum paracetamol concentration above the treatment thresholds on the paracetamol nomogram are associated with a greater risk of hepatotoxicity. Paracetamol elimination half-life: Patients with more severe hepatotoxicity are more likely to have a longer paracetamol elimination half-life. While median elimination half-life increases in those developing hepatotoxicity, there is wide variation in half-life, making this an insensitive parameter to use as a negative risk prediction tool. Prothrombin time (PT): An initially normal PT is associated with a lower risk of developing hepatotoxicity, but cannot be used alone to identify patients not requiring acetylcysteine treatment. Hepatic aminotransferase activity: A normal ALT activity on presentation is associated with a high negative predictive value of hepatotoxicity following paracetamol-poisoning. Psi parameter: The psi parameter takes into account the time from ingestion, the serum paracetamol concentration and the time to initiation of acetylcysteine. A hepatotoxicity risk nomogram based on this parameter may be easier to use, but is limited to acute ingestions. Paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product: If a hepatotoxicity risk nomogram is not available, an alternate strategy may be to use the paracetamol-aminotransferase product (<1500 low risk, 1500-10,000 low to moderate risk, >10,000 mg/L × IU/L high risk) to define liver injury risk. Serial blood tests can be performed if patients present prior to 8 h post-overdose for ultimate specificity, or a single blood test can be taken if presenting more than 8 h post-overdose. Patients receiving acetylcysteine within 8 h of their overdose, with a product less than 10,000 mg/L × IU/L have a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity. Any clinical trials of intensified treatment (e.g., higher dose) to prevent fulminant hepatic failure might potentially use a product of >10,000 mg/L × IU/L as a criterion for inclusion. The paracetamol-aminotransferase product <1500 mg/L × IU/L may also identify those suitable for an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. Newer biomarkers: These show promise in the early identification of patients with a higher risk of developing hepatic injury. Point of care devices measuring paracetamol adducts need further trials. Risk prediction tools can stratify those that are more likely to develop hepatotoxicity. Currently, the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product may be such a tool. Novel biomarkers show promise but need further validation and greater clinical availability. These tools may help inform clinical trials on modified acetylcysteine regimens.

Oxygen Supplementation to Stabilize Preterm Infants in the Fetal to Neonatal Transition: No Satisfactory Answer.

PubMed

Torres-Cuevas, Isabel; Cernada, Maria; Nuñez, Antonio; Escobar, Javier; Kuligowski, Julia; Chafer-Pericas, Consuelo; Vento, Maximo

2016-01-01

Fetal life elapses in a relatively low oxygen environment. Immediately after birth with the initiation of breathing, the lung expands and oxygen availability to tissue rises by twofold, generating a physiologic oxidative stress. However, both lung anatomy and function and the antioxidant defense system do not mature until late in gestation, and therefore, very preterm infants often need respiratory support and oxygen supplementation in the delivery room to achieve postnatal stabilization. Notably, interventions in the first minutes of life can have long-lasting consequences. Recent trials have aimed to assess what initial inspiratory fraction of oxygen and what oxygen targets during this transitional period are best for extremely preterm infants based on the available nomogram. However, oxygen saturation nomogram informs only of term and late preterm infants but not on extremely preterm infants. Therefore, the solution to this conundrum may still have to wait before a satisfactory answer is available.

Spherotoric bag-in-the-lens intraocular lens: power calculation and predictive misalignment nomogram.

PubMed

Gobin, Laure; Tassignon, Marie-José; Mathysen, Danny

2011-06-01

To propose a method of calculating the power of the 1-sided posterior chamber toric bag-in-the-lens (BIL) intraocular lens (IOL) and propose a misalignment nomogram to calculate the postoperative rotational misalignment or predict the effect of preoperative existing irregular corneal astigmatism. Antwerp University Hospital, Department of Ophthalmology, Antwerp, Belgium. Cohort study. The new IOL calculation formula uses the steepest corneal meridian and flattest corneal meridian separately (regular spherical IOL formula) followed by a customized A-constant approach based on the changes in the IOL principal plane depending on the spherical and cylindrical powers (thickness) of the IOL. The calculation of the remaining astigmatism (power and axis) in cases of postoperative rotational misalignment resulted in a nomogram that can also be used to predict the degree of tolerance for irregular corneal astigmatism correction at the lenticular plane. The calculation is performed using a worksheet. Because 10 degrees of misalignment would result in 35% refractive inaccuracy, it is the maximum acceptable corneal astigmatic irregularity for correction at the lenticular plane. Calculation of spherocylindrical power is specific to each toric IOL. Because the surgeon must fully understand the optical properties of the toric IOL that is going to be implanted, a comprehensive outline of a new calculation method specific to the toric BIL IOL is proposed. Primary rotational misalignment of the toric BIL IOL can be fine tuned postoperatively. Drs. Gobin and Mathysen have no financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Additional disclosures are found in the footnotes. Copyright © 2011 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Predictive Algorithms for Pre-Treatment Motor Deficit and 90-Day Mortality in Spinal Epidural Abscess.

PubMed

Shah, Akash A; Ogink, Paul T; Harris, Mitchel B; Schwab, Joseph H

2018-06-20

Spinal epidural abscess is a high-risk condition that can lead to paralysis or death. It would be of clinical and prognostic utility to identify which subset of patients with spinal epidural abscess is likely to develop a motor deficit or die within 90 days of discharge. We identified all patients ≥18 years of age who were admitted to our hospital system with a diagnosis of spinal epidural abscess during the period of 1993 to 2016. Explanatory variables were collected retrospectively. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression was performed using these variables to identify independent predictors of motor deficit and 90-day mortality. Nomograms were then constructed to quantify the risk of these outcomes. Of the 1,053 patients we identified with spinal epidural abscess, 362 presented with motor weakness. One hundred and thirty-four patients died within 90 days of discharge, inclusive of those who died during hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression yielded 8 independent predictors of pre-treatment motor deficit and 8 independent predictors of 90-day mortality. We constructed nomograms that generated a probability of pre-treatment motor deficit or 90-day mortality on the basis of the presence of these factors. By quantifying the risk of pre-treatment motor deficit and 90-day mortality, our nomograms may provide useful prognostic information for the treatment team. Timely treatment of neurologically intact patients with a high risk of developing a motor deficit is necessary to avoid residual motor weakness and improve survival. Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of Levels of Evidence.

Nomogram for suboptimal cytoreduction at primary surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gerestein, Cornelis G; Eijkemans, Marinus J; Bakker, Jeanette; Elgersma, Otto E; van der Burg, Maria E L; Kooi, Geertruida S; Burger, Curt W

2011-11-01

Maximal cytoreduction to minimal residual tumor is the most important determinant of prognosis in patients with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Preoperative prediction of suboptimal cytoreduction, defined as residual tumor >1 cm, could guide treatment decisions and improve counseling. The objective of this study was to identify predictive computed tomographic (CT) scan and clinical parameters for suboptimal cytoreduction at primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC and to generate a nomogram with the identified parameters, which would be easy to use in daily clinical practice. Between October 2005 and December 2008, all patients with primary surgery for suspected advanced stage EOC at six participating teaching hospitals in the South Western part of the Netherlands entered the study protocol. To investigate independent predictors of suboptimal cytoreduction, a Cox proportional hazard model with backward stepwise elimination was utilized. One hundred and fifteen patients with FIGO stage III/IV EOC entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 52 (45%) patients. A suboptimal cytoreduction was predicted by preoperative blood platelet count (p=0.1990; odds ratio (OR)=1.002), diffuse peritoneal thickening (DPT) (p=0.0074; OR=3.021), and presence of ascites on at least two thirds of CT scan slices (p=0.0385; OR=2.294) with a for-optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.67. Suboptimal cytoreduction was predicted by preoperative platelet count, DPT and presence of ascites. The generated nomogram can, after external validation, be used to estimate surgical outcome and to identify those patients, who might benefit from alternative treatment approaches.

Nomogram for Predicting the Benefit of Adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Resected Gallbladder Cancer

PubMed Central

Wang, Samuel J.; Lemieux, Andrew; Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Ord, Celine B.; Walker, Gary V.; Fuller, C. David; Kim, Jong-Sung; Thomas, Charles R.

2011-01-01

Purpose Although adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients will benefit remains challenging because of the rarity of this disease. The specific aim of this study was to create a decision aid to help make individualized estimates of the potential survival benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with resected gallbladder cancer. Methods Patients with resected gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) –Medicare database who were diagnosed between 1995 and 2005. Covariates included age, race, sex, stage, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Propensity score weighting was used to balance covariates between treated and untreated groups. Several types of multivariate survival regression models were constructed and compared, including Cox proportional hazards, Weibull, exponential, log-logistic, and lognormal models. Model performance was compared using the Akaike information criterion. The primary end point was overall survival with or without adjuvant chemotherapy or CRT. Results A total of 1,137 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. The lognormal survival model showed the best performance. A Web browser–based nomogram was built from this model to make individualized estimates of survival. The model predicts that certain subsets of patients with at least T2 or N1 disease will gain a survival benefit from adjuvant CRT, and the magnitude of benefit for an individual patient can vary. Conclusion A nomogram built from a parametric survival model from the SEER-Medicare database can be used as a decision aid to predict which gallbladder patients may benefit from adjuvant CRT. PMID:22067404

[Developing a predictive model for the caregiver strain index].

PubMed

Álvarez-Tello, Margarita; Casado-Mejía, Rosa; Praena-Fernández, Juan Manuel; Ortega-Calvo, Manuel

Patient homecare with multiple morbidities is an increasingly common occurrence. The caregiver strain index is tool in the form of questionnaire that is designed to measure the perceived burden of those who care for their families. The aim of this study is to construct a diagnostic nomogram of informal caregiver burden using data from a predictive model. The model was drawn up using binary logistic regression and the questionnaire items as dichotomous factors. The dependent variable was the final score obtained with the questionnaire but categorised in accordance with that in the literature. Scores between 0 and 6 were labelled as "no" (no caregiver stress) and at or greater than 7 as "yes". The version 3.1.1R statistical software was used. To construct confidence intervals for the ROC curve 2000 boot strap replicates were used. A sample of 67 caregivers was obtained. A diagnosing nomogram was made up with its calibration graph (Brier scaled = 0.686, Nagelkerke R 2 =0.791), and the corresponding ROC curve (area under the curve=0.962). The predictive model generated using binary logistic regression and the nomogram contain four items (1, 4, 5 and 9) of the questionnaire. R plotting functions allow a very good solution for validating a model like this. The area under the ROC curve (0.96; 95% CI: 0.994-0.941) achieves a high discriminative value. Calibration also shows high goodness of fit values, suggesting that it may be clinically useful in community nursing and geriatric establishments. Copyright © 2015 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Non-sentinel Node Status in Patients with Melanoma and Positive Sentinel Node Biopsy: An Italian Melanoma Intergroup (IMI) Study.

PubMed

Rossi, Carlo Riccardo; Mocellin, Simone; Campana, Luca Giovanni; Borgognoni, Lorenzo; Sestini, Serena; Giudice, Giuseppe; Caracò, Corrado; Cordova, Adriana; Solari, Nicola; Piazzalunga, Dario; Carcoforo, Paolo; Quaglino, Pietro; Caliendo, Virginia; Ribero, Simone

2018-01-01

Approximately 20% of melanoma patients harbor metastases in non-sentinel nodes (NSNs) after a positive sentinel node biopsy (SNB), and recent evidence questions the therapeutic benefit of completion lymph node dissection (CLND). We built a nomogram for prediction of NSN status in melanoma patients with positive SNB. Data on anthropometric and clinicopathological features of patients with cutaneous melanoma who underwent CLND after a positive SNB were collected from nine Italian centers. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify predictors of NSN status in a training set, while model efficiency was validated in a validation set. Data were available for 1220 patients treated from 2000 through 2016. In the training set (n = 810), the risk of NSN involvement was higher when (1) the primary melanoma is thicker or (2) sited in the trunk/head and neck; (3) fewer nodes are excised and (4) more nodes are involved; and (5) the lymph node metastasis is larger or (6) is deeply located. The model showed high discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.79) and calibration (Brier score 0.16, 95% CI 0.15-0.17) performance in the validation set (n = 410). The nomogram including these six clinicopathological variables performed significantly better than five other previously published models in terms of both discrimination and calibration. Our nomogram could be useful for follow-up personalization in clinical practice, and for patient risk stratification while conducting clinical trials or analyzing their results.

A Novel Nomogram to Predict the Prognosis of Patients Undergoing Liver Resection for Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis: an Analysis of the Italian Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis Database.

PubMed

Ruzzenente, Andrea; Bagante, Fabio; Bertuzzo, Francesca; Aldrighetti, Luca; Ercolani, Giorgio; Giuliante, Felice; Ferrero, Alessandro; Torzilli, Guido; Grazi, Gian Luca; Ratti, Francesca; Cucchetti, Alessandro; De Rose, Agostino M; Russolillo, Nadia; Cimino, Matteo; Perri, Pasquale; Cataldo, Ivana; Scarpa, Aldo; Guglielmi, Alfredo; Iacono, Calogero

2017-01-01

Even though surgery remains the only potentially curative option for patients with neuroendocrine liver metastases, the factors determining a patient's prognosis following hepatectomy are poorly understood. Using a multicentric database including patients who underwent hepatectomy for NELMs at seven tertiary referral hepato-biliary-pancreatic centers between January 1990 and December 2014, we sought to identify the predictors of survival and develop a clinical tool to predict patient's prognosis after liver resection for NELMs. The median age of the 238 patients included in the study was 61.9 years (interquartile range 51.5-70.1) and 55.9 % (n = 133) of patients were men. The number of NELMs (hazard ratio = 1.05), tumor size (HR = 1.01), and Ki-67 index (HR = 1.07) were the predictors of overall survival. These variables were used to develop a nomogram able to predict survival. According to the predicted 5-year OS, patients were divided into three different risk classes: 19.3, 55.5, and 25.2 % of patients were in low (>80 % predicted 5-year OS), medium (40-80 % predicted 5-year OS), and high (<40 % predicted 5-year OS) risk classes. The 10-year OS was 97.0, 55.9, and 20.0 % in the low, medium, and high-risk classes, respectively (p < 0.001). We developed a novel nomogram that accurately (c-index >70 %) staged and predicted the prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection for NELMs.

Primary site and regional lymph node involvement are independent prognostic factors for early-stage extranodal nasal-type natural killer/T cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Niu, Shao-Qing; Yang, Yong; Li, Yi-Yang; Wen, Ge; Wang, Liang; Li, Zhi-Ming; Wang, Han-Yu; Zhang, Lu-Lu; Xia, Yun-Fei; Zhang, Yu-Jing

2016-04-04

Nasal-type extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) originates primarily in the nasal cavity or extra-nasal sites within the upper aerodigestive tract. However, it is unclear whether the primary site can serve as an independent prognostic factor or whether the varying clinical outcomes observed with different primary sites can be attributed merely to their propensities of regional lymph node involvement. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic implications of the primary site and regional lymph node involvement in patients with early-stage nasal-type ENKTCL. To develop a nomogram, we reviewed the clinical data of 215 consecutively diagnosed patients with early-stage nasal-type ENKTCL who were treated in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with chemotherapy and radiotherapy between 2000 and 2011. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates of patients with nasal ENKTCL were higher than those of patients with extra-nasal ENKTCL (OS: 68.2% vs. 46.0%, P = 0.030; PFS: 53.4% vs. 26.6%, P = 0.010). The 5-year OS and PFS rates of patients with Ann Arbor stage IE ENKTCL were higher than those of patients with Ann Arbor stage IIE ENKTCL (OS: 66.3% vs. 59.2%, P = 0.003; PFS: 51.4% vs. 40.3%, P = 0.009). Multivariate analysis showed that age >60 years, ECOG performance status score ≥2, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, extra-nasal primary site, and regional lymph node involvement were significantly associated with lower 5-year OS rate; age >60 years, elevated LDH level, extra-nasal primary site, and regional lymph node involvement were significantly associated with lower 5-year PFS rate. The nomogram included the primary site and regional lymph node involvement based on multivariate analysis. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted and actual 5-year OS and PFS rates, and the C-indexes of the nomogram for the OS and PFS rates were 0.697 and 0.634, respectively. The primary site and regional lymph node involvement are independent prognostic factors for early-stage ENKTCL treated with chemotherapy followed by definitive radiotherapy.

A nomogram to estimate the HbA1c response to different DPP-4 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 98 trials with 24 163 patients

PubMed Central

Esposito, Katherine; Chiodini, Paolo; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Capuano, Annalisa; Cozzolino, Domenico; Petrizzo, Michela; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Giugliano, Dario

2015-01-01

Objectives To develop a nomogram for estimating the glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) response to different dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in type 2 diabetes. Design A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of DPP-4 inhibitors (vildagliptin, sitagliptin, saxagliptin, linagliptin and alogliptin) on HbA1c were conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to December 2013. Trials were included if they were carried out on participants with type 2 diabetes, lasted at least 12 weeks, included at least 30 participants and had a final assessment of HbA1c. A random effect model was used to pool data. A nomogram was used to represent results of the metaregression model. Participants Adults with type 2 diabetes. Interventions Any DPP-4 inhibitor (vildagliptin, sitagliptin, saxagliptin, linagliptin or alogliptin). Outcome measures The HbA1c response to each DPP-4 inhibitor within 1 year of therapy. Results We screened 928 citations and reviewed 98 articles reporting 98 RCTs with 100 arms in 24 163 participants. There were 26 arms with vildagliptin, 37 with sitagliptin, 13 with saxagliptin, 13 with linagliptin and 11 with alogliptin. For all 100 arms, the mean baseline HbA1c value was 8.05% (64 mmol/mol); the decrease of HbA1c from baseline was −0.77% (95% CI −0.82 to −0.72%), with high heterogeneity (I2=96%). Multivariable metaregression model that included baseline HbA1c, type of DPP-4 inhibitor and fasting glucose explained 58% of variance between studies, with no significant interaction between them. Other factors, including age, previous diabetes drugs and duration of treatment added low predictive power (<1%). The nomogram estimates the absolute HbA1c reduction from baseline using the type of DPP-4 inhibitor, baseline values of HbA1c and fasting glucose. Conclusions Baseline HbA1c level and fasting glucose explain most of the variance in HbA1c change in response to DPP-4 inhibitors: each increase of 1.0% units HbA1c provides a 0.4–0.5% units greater fall. PMID:25687897

Development of a Set of Nomograms to Predict Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Toxicity for Prostate Cancer 3D-CRT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valdagni, Riccardo; Rancati, Tiziana; Fiorino, Claudio

2008-07-15

Purpose: To predict acute Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and Subjective Objective Signs Management and Analysis/Late Effect of Normal Tissue (SOMA/LENT) toxicities of the lower gastrointestinal (LGI) syndrome in patients with prostate cancer undergoing three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy using a tool (nomogram) that takes into account clinical and dosimetric variables that proved to be significant in the Italian Association for Radiation Oncology (AIRO) Group on Prostate Cancer (AIROPROS) 0102 trial. Methods and Materials: Acute rectal toxicity was scored in 1,132 patients by using both the RTOG/EORTC scoring system and a 10-item self-assessed questionnaire.more » Correlation between clinical variables/dose-volume histogram constraints and rectal toxicity was investigated by means of multivariate logistic analyses. Multivariate logistic analyses results were used to create nomograms predicting the symptoms of acute LGI syndrome. Results: Mean rectal dose was a strong predictor of Grade 2-3 RTOG/EORTC acute LGI toxicity (p 0.0004; odds ratio (OR) = 1.035), together with hemorrhoids (p = 0.02; OR 1.51), use of anticoagulants/antiaggregants (p = 0.02; OR = 0.63), and androgen deprivation (AD) (p = 0.04; OR = 0.65). Diabetes (p = 0.34; OR 1.28) and pelvic node irradiation (p = 0.11; OR = 1.56) were significant variables to adjust toxicity prediction. Bleeding was related to hemorrhoids (p = 0.02; OR = 173), AD (p = 0.17; OR = 0.67), and mean rectal dose (p 0.009; OR = 1.024). Stool frequency was related to seminal vesicle irradiation (p = 0.07; OR = 6.46), AD administered for more than 3 months (p = 0.002; OR = 0.32), and the percent volume of rectum receiving more than 60 Gy (V60Gy) V60 (p = 0.02; OR = 1.02). Severe fecal incontinence depended on seminal vesicle irradiation (p = 0.14; OR = 4.5) and V70 (p = 0.033; OR 1.029). Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first set of nomograms available in the literature specific to symptoms of LGI syndrome and provides clinicians with a tailored probability of the specific outcome. Validation of the tool is in progress.« less

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer after radical resection based on individual patient data from three large-scale phase III trials

PubMed Central

Akiyoshi, Takashi; Maeda, Hiromichi; Kashiwabara, Kosuke; Kanda, Mitsuro; Mayanagi, Shuhei; Aoyama, Toru; Hamada, Chikuma; Sadahiro, Sotaro; Fukunaga, Yosuke; Ueno, Masashi; Sakamoto, Junichi; Saji, Shigetoyo; Yoshikawa, Takaki

2017-01-01

Background Few prediction models have so far been developed and assessed for the prognosis of patients who undergo curative resection for colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and Methods We prepared a clinical dataset including 5,530 patients who participated in three major randomized controlled trials as a training dataset and 2,263 consecutive patients who were treated at a cancer-specialized hospital as a validation dataset. All subjects underwent radical resection for CRC which was histologically diagnosed to be adenocarcinoma. The main outcomes that were predicted were the overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS). The identification of the variables in this nomogram was based on a Cox regression analysis and the model performance was evaluated by Harrell's c-index. The calibration plot and its slope were also studied. For the external validation assessment, risk group stratification was employed. Results The multivariate Cox model identified variables; sex, age, pathological T and N factor, tumor location, size, lymphnode dissection, postoperative complications and adjuvant chemotherapy. The c-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.77) for the OS and 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.78) for the DFS. The proposed stratification in the risk groups demonstrated a significant distinction between the Kaplan–Meier curves for OS and DFS in the external validation dataset. Conclusions We established a clinically reliable nomogram to predict the OS and DFS in patients with CRC using large scale and reliable independent patient data from phase III randomized controlled trials. The external validity was also confirmed on the practical dataset. PMID:29228760

Infiltration of diametrically polarized macrophages predicts overall survival of patients with gastric cancer after surgical resection.

PubMed

Zhang, Heng; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Xu, Jiejie; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

2015-10-01

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs), the most predominant tumor-infiltrating immune cells, are emerging prognostic factors and therapeutic targets for personalized therapy against malignant neoplasms. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of diametrically polarized TAMs in gastric cancer and generate a predictive nomogram to refine a risk stratification system. We evaluated polarized functional status of infiltrated TAMs by immunohistochemical staining of CD68, CD11c, and CD206 in 180 consecutive gastric cancer patients from Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai, China. Prognostic values were assessed in these patients. We created a predictive nomogram by integrating polarized TAMs with the TNM staging system for overall survival of gastric cancer patients. CD68(+) TAMs display polarized programs comprising CD11c(+) proinflammatory macrophages (M1) and CD206(+) immunosuppressive macrophages (M2) that configure versatile infiltration files in gastric cancer. CD11c(+) TAMs negatively correlated with lymph node metastasis (p = 0.012), whereas CD206(+) TAMs correlated with the Lauren classification (p = 0.031). No prognostic difference was observed for overall survival for CD68 density (high vs low, p = 0.1031), whereas high versus low CD11c density (p < 0.0001) and low vs high CD206 density (p = 0.0105) indicate better overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified CD11c and CD206 as independent prognostic factors (p < 0.001 and p = 0.030, respectively), which could be integrated with the TNM staging system to generate a predictive nomogram for patient outcomes. Infiltration of polarized TAMs, a novel identified independent prognostic factor, could be combined with the TNM stage to refine a risk stratification system and better stratify patients with different prognosis. Tipping TAMs to an antitumoral phenotype might be a promising therapeutic target for postoperative treatment.

A modified TNM staging system for non-metastatic colorectal cancer based on nomogram analysis of SEER database.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangxing; Li, Jun; Cai, Yibo; Tian, Yu; Chi, Shengqiang; Tong, Danyang; Hu, Yeting; Yang, Qi; Li, Jingsong; Poston, Graeme; Yuan, Ying; Ding, Kefeng

2018-01-08

To revise the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on a nomogram analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and to prove the rationality of enhancing T stage's weighting in our previously proposed T-plus staging system. Total 115,377 non-metastatic CRC patients from SEER were randomly grouped as training and testing set by ratio 1:1. The Nomo-staging system was established via three nomograms based on 1-year, 2-year and 3-year disease specific survival (DSS) Logistic regression analysis of the training set. The predictive value of Nomo-staging system for the testing set was evaluated by concordance index (c-index), likelihood ratio (L.R.) and Akaike information criteria (AIC) for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year overall survival (OS) and DSS. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to valuate discrimination and gradient monotonicity. And an external validation was performed on database from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University (SAHZU). Patients with T1-2 N1 and T1N2a were classified into stage II while T4 N0 patients were classified into stage III in Nomo-staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of OS and DSS in testing set showed Nomo-staging system performed better in discrimination and gradient monotonicity, and the external validation in SAHZU database also showed distinctly better discrimination. The Nomo-staging system showed higher value in L.R. and c-index, and lower value in AIC when predicting OS and DSS in testing set. The Nomo-staging system showed better performance in prognosis prediction and the weight of lymph nodes status in prognosis prediction should be cautiously reconsidered.

Sonographic correlation of foetal neck circumference and area with gestational age among pregnant women in Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

PubMed

Abonyi, Obinna Everistus; Eze, Charles Ugwoke; Onwuzu, Sobechukwu W I

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to create a reference range nomogram of foetal neck circumference (FNC) and foetal neck area (FNA) in a Nigerian population using polynomial regression models. This cross-sectional study involved 723 pregnant women between 14 and 40 weeks of gestation. Axial measurements of the FNC and FNA were obtained in three measurements and the mean taken as the final value and the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles for each foetal gestational age (FGA) were calculated. FNC and FNA correlated strongly with FGA, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, head circumference, and femoral length. Cubic models fitted the FNC vs FGA, and FNA vs. FGA values, and the mathematical relationships are given as: [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]. Nomograms of FNC and FNA are thus generated. Impact statement The foetal neck circumference (FNC) and foetal neck area (FNA) can serve as predictors of foetal gestational age (FGA) since they correlate strongly and positively with FGA and known biometric parameters. The measurements obtained vary with the population studied. This study provides a nomogram of the FNA and FNC for an African population. The values correlate with that of the Caucasian population up to 32 weeks FGA. Interestingly, FNA and FNC measurements demonstrate high correlation but poor agreement in measurements between sonographers. Even though FNA and FNC could be used as predictors of foetal gestational age, the measurements vary significantly between sonographers. This is attributable to the difficulty in obtaining a satisfactory axial view of foetal neck, which is dependent on foetal presentation.

Standard outcome indicators after colon cancer resection. Creation of a nomogram for autoevaluation.

PubMed

Sancho-Muriel, Jorge; Frasson, Matteo; Hervás, David; Flor-Lorente, Blas; Ramos Rodriguez, José Luis; Romero Simó, Manuel; Escoll Rufino, Jordi; Santamaría Olabarrieta, Marta; Viñas Martinez, José; López Bañeres, Manolo; García-Granero, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Lately there has been an increasing interest in identifying quality standards in different pathologies, among them colon cancer due to its great prevalence. The main goal of this study is to define the quality standards of colon cancer surgery based on a large prospective national study dataset. Data from the prospective national study ANACO were used. This study included a consecutive series of patients operated on for colon cancer in 52 Spanish hospitals (2011-2012). Centers with less than 30 patients were excluded. The present analysis finally included 42 centers (2975 patients). Based on the results obtained in 4main indicators from each hospital (anastomotic leak, lymph-nodes found in the specimen, mortality and length of stay), a nomogram that allows the evaluation of the performance of each center was designed. Standard results for further 5 intraoperative and 5 postoperative quality indicators were also reported. Median of anastomotic leak and mortality rate was 8.5% (25 th -75 th percentiles 6.1%-12.4%) and 2.5% (25 th -75 th percentiles 0.6%-4.7%), respectively. Median number of nodes found in the surgical specimen was 15,1 (25 th -75 th percentiles 18-14 nodes). Median length of postoperative stay was 7.7 days (25 th -75 th percentiles 6.9-9.2 days). Based on these data, a nomogram for hospital audit was created. Standard surgical results after colon cancer surgery were defined, creating a tool for auto-evaluation and allowing each center to identify areas for improvement in the surgical treatment of colon cancer. Copyright © 2016 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Is There a Characteristic Clinical Profile for Patients with Dementia and Sundown Syndrome?

PubMed

Angulo Sevilla, David; Carreras Rodríguez, María Teresa; Heredia Rodríguez, Patricia; Fernández Sánchez, Marisa; Vivancos Mora, José Aurelio; Gago-Veiga, Ana Beatriz

2018-01-01

Sundown syndrome (SS) is the onset or worsening of behavioral symptoms in the evening in patients with dementia. To identify the differential clinical profile of patients with dementia who present SS. A cross-sectional, case-control observational study was conducted by retrospectively reviewing the medical records of patients with dementia in a specialized Memory Unit. We compared the characteristics of patients with and without SS, including sociodemographic variables, etiology, and severity of the dementia, behavioral symptoms, sleep disorders (considering insomnia and hypersomnia), other diseases and treatments employed. We identified the factors related to SS and conducted a logistic regression analysis to establish a predictive nomogram. Of the 216 study patients with dementia, 41 (19%) had SS. There was a predominance of women (2.4:1), advanced age (p = 0.0001), dependence (p < 0.0001), institutionalization (p < 0.0001), caregiver burden (p < 0.0001), anxiety (p < 0.0001), delirium (p < 0.0001), hallucinations (p < 0.0001), wandering (p < 0.0001), Lewy body dementia (p = 0.05), higher Global Deterioration Scale score (GDS; p < 0.0001), and sleep disorders (p < 0.0001). The multivariate analysis revealed that age (p = 0.048), GDS score (p = 0.01), and the presence of insomnia or hypersomnia (p < 0.0001) independently defined the presence of SS. We established a predictive nomogram for developing SS in patients with dementia, with a predictive capacity of 80.1%. In our study, age, a higher score on the GDS, and the presence of insomnia or hypersomnia are differential clinical characteristics of patients with SS. We defined a nomogram that helps predicting the occurrence of SS in patients with dementia.

Simple non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms and nomogram for detecting undiagnosed diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos K H; Siu, Shing-Chung; Wan, Eric Y F; Jiao, Fang-Fang; Yu, Esther Y T; Fung, Colman S C; Wong, Ka-Wai; Leung, Angela Y M; Lam, Cindy L K

2016-05-01

The aim of the present study was to develop a simple nomogram that can be used to predict the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the asymptomatic non-diabetic subjects based on non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk algorithms. Anthropometric data, plasma fasting glucose, full lipid profile, exercise habits, and family history of DM were collected from Chinese non-diabetic subjects aged 18-70 years. Logistic regression analysis was performed on a random sample of 2518 subjects to construct non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms for detection of undiagnosed DM; both algorithms were validated on data of the remaining sample (n = 839). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to assess the calibration and discrimination of the DM risk algorithms. Of 3357 subjects recruited, 271 (8.1%) had undiagnosed DM defined by fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or 2-h post-load plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L after an oral glucose tolerance test. The non-laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 33, included age, body mass index, family history of DM, regular exercise, and uncontrolled blood pressure; the laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 37, added triglyceride level to the risk factors. Both algorithms demonstrated acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.229 and P = 0.483) and discrimination (AUC 0.709 and 0.711) for detection of undiagnosed DM. A simple-to-use nomogram for detecting undiagnosed DM has been developed using validated non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk algorithms. © 2015 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Predicting obstructive coronary artery disease using carotid ultrasound parameters: a nomogram from a large real-world clinical data.

PubMed

Wu, Na; Chen, Xinghua; Li, Mingyang; Qu, Xiaolong; Li, Yueli; Xie, Weijia; Wu, Long; Xiang, Ying; Li, Yafei; Zhong, Li

2018-05-21

Carotid ultrasound is a non-invasive tool for risk assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD). There is no consensus on which carotid ultrasound parameter constitutes the best measurement of atherosclerosis. We investigated which model of carotid ultrasound parameters and clinical risk factors (CRF) have the highest predictive value for CAD. We enrolled 2431 consecutive patients who have suspected CAD and underwent coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound with measurements of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), total number of plaques and areas of different types of plaques classified by echogenicity. Total number of plaques demonstrated the highest incremental prediction ability to predict CAD over CRF (area under the curve [AUC] 0.752 vs 0.701, net reclassification index [NRI] = 0.514, P < 0.001), followed by area of maximum mixed and soft plaques. CIMT had no significant incremental value over CRF (AUC 0.704 vs 0.701, P = 0.241; NRI = 0.062, P = 0.168). The model comprising total number of plaques, areas of maximum soft, hard and mixed plaques plus CRF had the highest discriminatory (AUC = 0.757) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.567) for CAD. A nomogram based on this model was developed to predict CAD. For subjects at low and intermediate risk, the model comprising total number of plaques plus CRF was the best. Total number of plaques, area of maximum soft, hard and mixed plaques showed significantly incremental prediction ability over CRF. A nomogram based on these factors provided an intuitive and practical method in detecting CAD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Low Expression of Mucin-4 Predicts Poor Prognosis in Patients With Clear-Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Fu, Hangcheng; Liu, Yidong; Xu, Le; Chang, Yuan; Zhou, Lin; Zhang, Weijuan; Yang, Yuanfeng; Xu, Jiejie

2016-01-01

Abstract Mucin-4 (MUC4), a member of membrane-bound mucins, has been reported to exert a large variety of distinctive roles in tumorigenesis of different cancers. MUC4 is aberrantly expressed in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) but its prognostic value is still unveiled. This study aims to assess the clinical significance of MUC4 expression in patients with ccRCC. The expression of MUC4 was assessed by immunohistochemistry in 198 patients with ccRCC who underwent nephrectomy retrospectively in 2003 and 2004. Sixty-seven patients died before the last follow-up in the cohort. Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test was applied to compare survival curves. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the prognostic value of MUC4 expression in overall survival (OS). The predictive nomogram was constructed based on the independent prognostic factors. The calibration was built to evaluate the predictive accuracy of nomogram. In patients with ccRCC, MUC4 expression, which was determined to be an independent prognostic indicator for OS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.891; P < 0.001), was negatively associated with tumor size (P = 0.036), Fuhrman grade (P = 0.044), and OS (P < 0.001). The prognostic accuracy of TNM stage, UCLA Integrated Scoring System (UISS), and Mayo clinic stage, size, grade, and necrosis score (SSIGN) prognostic models was improved when MUC4 expression was added. The independent prognostic factors, pT stage, distant metastases, Fuhrman grade, sarcomatoid, and MUC4 expression were integrated to establish a predictive nomogram with high predictive accuracy. MUC4 expression is an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with ccRCC. PMID:27124015

Nomograms for mitral inflow Doppler and tissue Doppler velocities in Caucasian children.

PubMed

Cantinotti, Massimiliano; Giordano, Raffaele; Scalese, Marco; Murzi, Bruno; Assanta, Nadia; Spadoni, Isabella; Crocetti, Maura; Marotta, Marco; Molinaro, Sabrina; Kutty, Shelby; Iervasi, Giorgio

2016-10-01

Pediatric echocardiographic nomograms for systolic/diastolic functional indices are limited by small sample size and inconsistent methodologies. Our aim was to establish pediatric nomograms for mitral valve (MV) pulsed wave Doppler (PWD) and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) velocities. We performed PWD/TDI measurements of MV velocities and generated models testing for linear/logarithmic/exponential/square root relationships. Heteroscedasticity was accounted for by White test or Breusch-Pagan test. Age, weight, height, heart rate (HR), and body surface area (BSA) were used as independent variables in different analyses to predict the mean values of each measurement. In all, 904 Caucasian Italian healthy children (age 0 days-17 years; 45.5% females; BSA 0.12-2.12m(2)) were prospectively studied. No individual variable provided equations with an acceptable coefficient of determination (R(2)) and even the inclusion of multiple variables in the model resulted in only a partial amelioration of the R(2). Higher R(2) were obtained for PWD-E deceleration time (0.53), septal (Se') and lateral (Le') MV-TDI e' velocity (Se': 0.54; Le': 0.55). Variability was higher at lower age and BSA. In older children patterns were more reproducible; however, the exclusion of neonates did not substantially improve the final models. The low R(2) hampered building of z-scores and calculation of estimated percentiles. Thus normative data have been presented as observed percentile according to age for all measurements. We report normal ranges for PWD and TDI mitral velocities derived from a large population of Caucasian children. Variability of diastolic patterns especially at lower ages needs to be taken into account. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nomogram for predicting the benefit of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with esophageal cancer: a SEER-Medicare analysis.

PubMed

Eil, Robert; Diggs, Brian S; Wang, Samuel J; Dolan, James P; Hunter, John G; Thomas, Charles R

2014-02-15

The survival impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on esophageal cancer remains difficult to establish for specific patients. The aim of the current study was to create a Web-based prediction tool providing individualized survival projections based on tumor and treatment data. Patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer between 1997 and 2005 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database. The covariates analyzed were sex, T and N classification, histology, total number of lymph nodes examined, and treatment with esophagectomy or CRT followed by esophagectomy. After propensity score weighting, a log-logistic regression model for overall survival was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. A total of 824 patients with esophageal cancer who were treated with esophagectomy or trimodal therapy met the selection criteria. On multivariate analysis, age, sex, T and N classification, number of lymph nodes examined, treatment, and histology were found to be significantly associated with overall survival and were included in the regression analysis. Preoperative staging data and final surgical margin status were not available within the SEER-Medicare data set and therefore were not included. The model predicted that patients with T4 or lymph node disease benefitted from CRT. The internally validated concordance index was 0.72. The SEER-Medicare database of patients with esophageal cancer can be used to produce a survival prediction tool that: 1) serves as a counseling and decision aid to patients and 2) assists in risk modeling. Patients with T4 or lymph node disease appeared to benefit from CRT. This nomogram may underestimate the benefit of CRT due to its variable downstaging effect on pathologic stage. It is available at skynet.ohsu.edu/nomograms. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Assessing the risk of pelvic and para-aortic nodal involvement in apparent early-stage ovarian cancer: A predictors- and nomogram-based analyses.

PubMed

Bogani, Giorgio; Tagliabue, Elena; Ditto, Antonino; Signorelli, Mauro; Martinelli, Fabio; Casarin, Jvan; Chiappa, Valentina; Dondi, Giulia; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Scaffa, Cono; Borghi, Chiara; Montanelli, Luca; Lorusso, Domenica; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2017-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of lymph node involvement in early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer in order to assess the prognostic value of lymph node dissection. Data of consecutive patients undergoing staging for early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer were retrospectively evaluated. Logistic regression and a nomogram-based analysis were used to assess the risk of lymph node involvement. Overall, 290 patients were included. All patients had lymph node dissection including pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Forty-two (14.5%) patients were upstaged due to lymph node metastatic disease. Pelvic and para-aortic nodal metastases were observed in 22 (7.6%) and 42 (14.5%) patients. Lymph node involvement was observed in 18/95 (18.9%), 1/37 (2.7%), 4/29 (13.8%), 11/63 (17.4%), 3/41 (7.3%) and 5/24 (20.8%) patients with high-grade serous, low-grade-serous, endometrioid G1, endometrioid G2&3, clear cell and undifferentiated, histology, respectively (p=0.12, Chi-square test). We observed that high-grade serous histology was associated with an increased risk of pelvic node involvement; while, histology rather than low-grade serous and bilateral tumors were independently associated with para-aortic lymph node involvement (p<0.05). Nomograms displaying the risk of nodal involvement in the pelvic and para-aortic areas were built. High-grade serous histology and bilateral tumors are the main characteristics suggesting lymph node positivity. Our data suggested that high-grade serous and bilateral early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer are at high risk of having disease harboring in the lymphatic tissues of both pelvic and para-aortic area. After receiving external validation, our data will help to identify patients deserving comprehensive retroperitoneal staging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Ovarian Activity in Women Affected by Early Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis-Based Nomogram.

PubMed

Barnabei, Agnese; Strigari, Lidia; Marchetti, Paolo; Sini, Valentina; De Vecchis, Liana; Corsello, Salvatore Maria; Torino, Francesco

2015-10-01

The assessment of ovarian reserve in premenopausal women requiring anticancer gonadotoxic therapy can help clinicians address some challenging issues, including the probability of future pregnancies after the end of treatment. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and age can reliably estimate ovarian reserve. A limited number of studies have evaluated AMH and age as predictors of residual ovarian reserve following cytotoxic chemotherapy in breast cancer patients. To conduct a meta-analysis of published data on this topic, we searched the medical literature using the key MeSH terms "amenorrhea/chemically induced," "ovarian reserve," "anti-Mullerian hormone/blood," and "breast neoplasms/drug therapy." Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statements guided the search strategy. U.K. National Health Service guidelines were used in abstracting data and assessing data quality and validity. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC/AUC) analysis was used to evaluate the predictive utility of baseline AMH and age model. The meta-analysis of data pooled from the selected studies showed that both age and serum AMH are reliable predictors of post-treatment ovarian activity in breast cancer patients. Importantly, ROC/AUC analysis indicated AMH was a more reliable predictor of post-treatment ovarian activity in patients aged younger than 40 years (0.753; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.602-0.904) compared with those older than 40 years (0.678; 95% CI: 0.491-0.866). We generated a nomogram describing the correlations among age, pretreatment AMH serum levels, and ovarian activity at 1 year from the end of chemotherapy. After the ongoing validation process, the proposed nomogram may help clinicians discern premenopausal women requiring cytotoxic chemotherapy who should be considered high priority for fertility preservation counseling and procedures. ©AlphaMed Press.

Pediatric Penile and Glans Anthropometry Nomograms: An Aid in Hypospadias Management.

PubMed

Puri, Archana; Sikdar, Satyajit; Prakash, Raghu

2017-01-01

To establish pediatric penile and glans anthropometry nomograms. This may be used as a reference model for penile assessment while managing hypospadias. Between October 2012 and September 2013, 263 boys of varying ages (0-16 years) were included in the study. Those with genetic, endocrine disorders, having genital anomaly, undescended testis, neonates, and infants with a nonretractile prepuce, with multiple congenital anomalies and refusal to take part in the study were excluded. Evaluated outcome variables were stretched penile length, glans circumference (GC) at coronal sulcus, glans diameter at coronal sulcus (Gdcl), mid glans diameter, and ventral glans length. Glans ratios were generated by dividing Gdcl by GC. Data were expressed as mean, median, and standard deviation. Correlation between age and variables was evaluated using nonparametric Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. The patients were divided in six age groups, namely 0-1 ( n = 61), 1-3 ( n = 37), 3-5 ( n = 36), 5-7 ( n = 36), 7-12 ( n = 45), and >12 years ( n = 48). Gdcl was the maximum transverse glans diameter and based on it small glans size varied widely from 8.9 to 35.04 mm for various age groups. Although glans anthropometry showed age-related changes, glans ratio remained relatively constant between 0.49 and 0.53 (mean: 0.5 ± 0.051, r = 0.29). All the variables except glans ratio showed a significant positive correlation with age ( r = 0.954-0.98, P < 0.01). Penile anthropometry nomograms provide a reference model for hypospadias. This may aid in (a) objective preoperative assessment of glans size (b) patient selection for preoperative hormonal stimulation (c) provides a yardstick for postoperative cosmesis.

Gleason grade remains an important prognostic predictor in men diagnosed with prostate cancer while on finasteride therapy

PubMed Central

CARVER, BRETT S.; KATTAN, MICHAEL W.; SCARDINO, PETER T.; EASTHAM, JAMES A.

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate men treated with finasteride for lower urinary tract symptoms, who subsequently were diagnosed with prostate cancer and had a radical prostatectomy (RP) at our institution, to determine if finasteride therapy prevented accurate Gleason grade assignment and prediction of biochemical recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS Between May 1996 and July 2003, 45 men were identified who had RP and had previously been treated with finasteride for ≥6 months before the diagnosis of prostate cancer. Clinical and pathological information was gathered from a RP database. Serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, duration of finasteride therapy, biopsy Gleason grade, clinical stage, RP Gleason grade and pathological stage were reviewed. Freedom from recurrence was predicted using validated nomograms before and after RP, and compared against actuarial 5-year freedom from recurrence using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS The mean duration of finasteride therapy before diagnosis was 23.6 months, the mean serum PSA (doubled to account for finasteride use) 11.02 ng/mL and mean biopsy Gleason score 6. When comparing the biopsy and RP specimen Gleason score, it was downgraded by 1 point in six men, upgraded by 1 point in eight, and upgraded by 2 points in one. The Gleason score was constant in 30 patients. The nomograms predicted freedom from recurrence in 83% and 85%, respectively; the 5-year actuarial freedom from recurrence was 86%. CONCLUSION Finasteride does not appear to compromise the assignment of Gleason grade for use in prediction tools before or after RP in men undergoing prostate biopsy or RP. The actuarial 5-year freedom from recurrence was similar to that predicted by the validated nomograms. Gleason grade remains an important prognostic predictor in men treated with finasteride and undergoing RP for clinically localized prostate cancer. PMID:15705069

A Nomographic Methodology for Use in Performance Trade-Off Studies of Parabolic Dish Solar Power Modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.; Fujita, T.

1984-01-01

A simple graphical method was developed to undertake technical design trade-off studies for individual parabolic dish models comprising a two-axis tracking parabolic dish with a cavity receiver and power conversion assembly at the focal point. The results of these technical studies are then used in performing the techno-economic analyses required for determining appropriate subsystem sizing. Selected graphs that characterize the performance of subsystems within the module were arranged in the form of a nomogram that would enable an investigator to carry out several design trade-off studies. Key performance parameters encompassed in the nomogram include receiver losses, intercept factor, engine rating, and engine efficiency. Design and operation parameters such as concentrator size, receiver type (open or windowed aperture), receiver aperture size, operating temperature of the receiver and engine, engine partial load characteristics, concentrator slope error, and the type of reflector surface, are also included in the graphical solution. Cost considerations are not included.

Elaboration of a nomogram to predict nonsentinel node status in breast cancer patients with positive sentinel node, intraoperatively assessed with one step nucleic amplification: Retrospective and validation phase.

PubMed

Di Filippo, Franco; Di Filippo, Simona; Ferrari, Anna Maria; Antonetti, Raffaele; Battaglia, Alessandro; Becherini, Francesca; Bernet, Laia; Boldorini, Renzo; Bouteille, Catherine; Buglioni, Simonetta; Burelli, Paolo; Cano, Rafael; Canzonieri, Vincenzo; Chiodera, Pierluigi; Cirilli, Alfredo; Coppola, Luigi; Drago, Stefano; Di Tommaso, Luca; Fenaroli, Privato; Franchini, Roberto; Gianatti, Andrea; Giannarelli, Diana; Giardina, Carmela; Godey, Florence; Grassi, Massimo M; Grassi, Giuseppe B; Laws, Siobhan; Massarut, Samuele; Naccarato, Giuseppe; Natalicchio, Maria Iole; Orefice, Sergio; Palmieri, Fabrizio; Perin, Tiziana; Roncella, Manuela; Roncalli, Massimo G; Rulli, Antonio; Sidoni, Angelo; Tinterri, Corrado; Truglia, Maria C; Sperduti, Isabella

2016-12-08

Tumor-positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy results in a risk of non sentinel node metastases in micro- and macro-metastases ranging from 20 to 50%, respectively. Therefore, most patients underwent unnecessary axillary lymph node dissections. We have previously developed a mathematical model for predicting patient-specific risk of non sentinel node (NSN) metastases based on 2460 patients. The study reports the results of the validation phase where a total of 1945 patients were enrolled, aimed at identifying a tool that gives the possibility to the surgeon to choose intraoperatively whether to perform or not axillary lymph node dissection (ALND). The following parameters were recorded: Clinical: hospital, age, medical record number; Bio pathological: Tumor (T) size stratified in quartiles, grading (G), histologic type, lymphatic/vascular invasion (LVI), ER-PR status, Ki 67, molecular classification (Luminal A, Luminal B, HER-2 Like, Triple negative); Sentinel and non-sentinel node related: Number of NSNs removed, number of positive NSNs, cytokeratin 19 (CK19) mRNA copy number of positive sentinel nodes stratified in quartiles. A total of 1945 patients were included in the database. All patient data were provided by the authors of this paper. The discrimination of the model quantified with the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC), was 0.65 and 0.71 in the validation and retrospective phase, respectively. The calibration determines the distance between predicted outcome and actual outcome. The mean difference between predicted/observed was 2.3 and 6.3% in the retrospective and in the validation phase, respectively. The two values are quite similar and as a result we can conclude that the nomogram effectiveness was validated. Moreover, the ROC curve identified in the risk category of 31% of positive NSNs, the best compromise between false negative and positive rates i.e. when ALND is unnecessary (<31%) or recommended (>31%). The results of the study confirm that OSNA nomogram may help surgeons make an intraoperative decision on whether to perform ALND or not in case of positive sentinel nodes, and the patient to accept this decision based on a reliable estimation on the true percentage of NSN involvement. The use of this nomogram achieves two main gools: 1) the choice of the right treatment during the operation, 2) to avoid for the patient a second surgery procedure.

In-Situ Burning of Spilled Oil.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Alan A.

1991-01-01

Reviews in-situ burning with particular emphasis on how it can be applied in water-related oil spill situations. Presents and discusses the use of nomograms and development of techniques cited for safe and effective ignition and controlled burning of spilled oil. Includes representative oil spill scenarios and possible responses. (15 references)…

A hospital-based birth weight analysis using computerized perinatal data base for a Chinese population.

PubMed

Fu, Jing; Yu, Mei

2011-04-01

We aimed to construct birth weight-for-gestational age nomograms based on a computerized perinatal data base in a hospital-based Chinese population. Retrospectively collected 28,052 singleton deliveries at Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou, China. Standard curves of birth weight from 27 to 43 week's gestation were computed. The nomograms included the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles and standard deviations. 79.9% pregnant women delivered between 38, 39, and 40 gestational week, and the mean birth weights are 3160, 3282, and 3388 g, respectively. Preterm birth is 5.7%. In general, male birth weights are greater than females at each gestational week. The hospital-based Chinese population birth weight is lower than that of North American and Scandinavian population. A different standard birth weight is needed for different population. A hospital-based birth weight curve by gestational week is established, which can be a useful tool to estimate intrauterine fetal growth to define SGA or LGA fetuses.

A clinical nomogram to predict the successful shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteral calculi.

PubMed

Wiesenthal, Joshua D; Ghiculete, Daniela; Ray, A Andrew; Honey, R John D'A; Pace, Kenneth T

2011-08-01

Although shock wave lithotripsy is dependent on patient and stone related factors, there are few reliable algorithms predictive of its success. In this study we develop a comprehensive nomogram to predict renal and ureteral stone shock wave lithotripsy outcomes. During a 5-year period data from patients treated at our lithotripsy unit were reviewed. Analysis was restricted to patients with a solitary renal or ureteral calculus 20 mm or less. Demographic, stone, patient, treatment and 3-month followup data were collected from a prospective database. All patients were treated using the Philips Lithotron® lithotripter. A total of 422 patients (69.7% male) were analyzed. Mean stone size was 52.3±39.3 mm2 for ureteral stones and 78.9±77.3 mm2 for renal stones, with 95 (43.6%) of the renal stones located in the lower pole. The single treatment success rates for ureteral and renal stones were 60.3% and 70.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis predictors of shock wave lithotripsy success, regardless of stone location, were age (p=0.01), body mass index (p=0.01), stone size (p<0.01), mean stone density (p<0.01) and skin to stone distance (p<0.01). By multivariate logistic regression for renal calculi, age, stone area and skin to stone distance were significant predictors with an AUC of 0.75. For ureteral calculi predictive factors included body mass index and stone size (AUC 0.70). Patient and stone parameters have been identified to create a nomogram that predicts shock wave lithotripsy outcomes using the Lithotron lithotripter, which can facilitate optimal treatment based decisions and provide patients with more accurate single treatment success rates for shock wave lithotripsy tailored to patient specific situations. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discovery and Validation of Novel Expression Signature for Postcystectomy Recurrence in High-Risk Bladder Cancer

PubMed Central

Lam, Lucia L.; Ghadessi, Mercedeh; Erho, Nicholas; Vergara, Ismael A.; Alshalalfa, Mohammed; Buerki, Christine; Haddad, Zaid; Sierocinski, Thomas; Triche, Timothy J.; Skinner, Eila C.; Davicioni, Elai; Daneshmand, Siamak; Black, Peter C.

2014-01-01

Background Nearly half of muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients succumb to their disease following cystectomy. Selecting candidates for adjuvant therapy is currently based on clinical parameters with limited predictive power. This study aimed to develop and validate genomic-based signatures that can better identify patients at risk for recurrence than clinical models alone. Methods Transcriptome-wide expression profiles were generated using 1.4 million feature-arrays on archival tumors from 225 patients who underwent radical cystectomy and had muscle-invasive and/or node-positive bladder cancer. Genomic (GC) and clinical (CC) classifiers for predicting recurrence were developed on a discovery set (n = 133). Performances of GC, CC, an independent clinical nomogram (IBCNC), and genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers (G-CC, G-IBCNC) were assessed in the discovery and independent validation (n = 66) sets. GC was further validated on four external datasets (n = 341). Discrimination and prognostic abilities of classifiers were compared using area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results A 15-feature GC was developed on the discovery set with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 in the validation set. This was higher than individual clinical variables, IBCNC (AUC = 0.73), and comparable to CC (AUC = 0.78). Performance was improved upon combining GC with clinical nomograms (G-IBCNC, AUC = 0.82; G-CC, AUC = 0.86). G-CC high-risk patients had elevated recurrence probabilities (P < .001), with GC being the best predictor by multivariable analysis (P = .005). Genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers outperformed clinical nomograms by decision curve and reclassification analyses. GC performed the best in validation compared with seven prior signatures. GC markers remained prognostic across four independent datasets. Conclusions The validated genomic-based classifiers outperform clinical models for predicting postcystectomy bladder cancer recurrence. This may be used to better identify patients who need more aggressive management. PMID:25344601

Adjuvant leuprolide with or without docetaxel in patients with high-risk prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (TAX-3501): important lessons for future trials.

PubMed

Schweizer, Michael T; Huang, Peng; Kattan, Michael W; Kibel, Adam S; de Wit, Ronald; Sternberg, Cora N; Epstein, Jonathan I; Eisenberger, Mario A

2013-10-15

The current trial evaluated 2 common therapies for patients with advanced prostate cancer, docetaxel and hormonal therapy (HT), in the surgical adjuvant setting. TAX-3501 was a randomized, phase 3, adjuvant study post-radical prostatectomy (RP) in high-risk patients with prostate cancer (n=228) comparing 18 months of HT with (CHT) without docetaxel chemotherapy either immediately (I) or deferred (D). High-risk disease was defined as a 5-year freedom-from-disease-progression rate of ≤ 60% as predicted by a post-RP nomogram. Progression-free survival (PFS), including prostate-specific antigen disease recurrence, was the primary endpoint. The authors also assessed the accuracy of the nomogram and analyzed testosterone recovery in 108 patients treated with HT who had at least 1 posttreatment testosterone value. Between December 2005 and September 2007, 228 patients were randomized between the treatment cohorts. TAX-3501 was terminated prematurely because of enrollment challenges, leaving it underpowered to detect differences in PFS. After a median follow-up of 3.4 years (interquartile range, 2.3-3.8 years), 39 of 228 patients (17%) demonstrated PSA disease progression, and metastatic disease progression occurred in 1 patient. The median time to baseline testosterone recovery after the completion of treatment was prolonged at 487 days (95% confidence interval, 457-546 days). The nomogram's predicted versus observed freedom from disease progression was significantly different for the combination D(HT) and D(CHT) group (P<.00001). TAX-3501 illustrated several difficulties involved in conducting postoperative adjuvant systemic trials in men with high-risk prostate cancer: the lack of consensus regarding patient selection and treatment, the need for long follow-up time, nonvalidated intermediate endpoints, evolving standard approaches, and the need for long-term research support. Except for selected patients at very high-risk of disease recurrence and death, surgical adjuvant trials in patients with prostate cancer may not be feasible. Copyright © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Personalized Estimate of Chemotherapy-Induced Nausea and Vomiting: Development and External Validation of a Nomogram in Cancer Patients Receiving Highly/Moderately Emetogenic Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Hu, Zhihuang; Liang, Wenhua; Yang, Yunpeng; Keefe, Dorothy; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Xue, Cong; Huang, Yan; Zhao, Hongyun; Chen, Likun; Chan, Alexandre; Zhang, Li

2016-01-01

Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) is presented in over 30% of cancer patients receiving highly/moderately emetogenic chemotherapy (HEC/MEC). The currently recommended antiemetic therapy is merely based on the emetogenic level of chemotherapy, regardless of patient's individual risk factors. It is, therefore, critical to develop an approach for personalized management of CINV in the era of precision medicine.A number of variables were involved in the development of CINV. In the present study, we pooled the data from 2 multi-institutional investigations of CINV due to HEC/MEC treatment in Asian countries. Demographic and clinical variables of 881 patients were prospectively collected as defined previously, and 862 of them had full documentation of variables of interest. The data of 548 patients from Chinese institutions were used to identify variables associated with CINV using multivariate logistic regression model, and then construct a personalized prediction model of nomogram; while the remaining 314 patients out of China (Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) entered the external validation set. C-index was used to measure the discrimination ability of the model.The predictors in the final model included sex, age, alcohol consumption, history of vomiting pregnancy, history of motion sickness, body surface area, emetogenicity of chemotherapy, and antiemetic regimens. The C-index was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) for the training set and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.72) for the validation set. The C-index was higher than that of any single predictor, including the emetogenic level of chemotherapy according to current antiemetic guidelines. Calibration curves showed good agreement between prediction and actual occurrence of CINV.This easy-to-use prediction model was based on chemotherapeutic regimens as well as patient's individual risk factors. The prediction accuracy of CINV occurrence in this nomogram was well validated by an independent data set. It could facilitate the assessment of individual risk, and thus improve the personalized management of CINV.

A clinical prediction model for prolonged air leak after pulmonary resection.

PubMed

Attaar, Adam; Winger, Daniel G; Luketich, James D; Schuchert, Matthew J; Sarkaria, Inderpal S; Christie, Neil A; Nason, Katie S

2017-03-01

Prolonged air leak increases costs and worsens outcomes after pulmonary resection. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction tool for prolonged air leak using pretreatment and intraoperative variables. Patients who underwent pulmonary resection for lung cancer/nodules (from January 2009 to June 2014) were stratified by prolonged parenchymal air leak (>5 days). Using backward stepwise logistic regression with bootstrap resampling for internal validation, candidate variables were identified and a nomogram risk calculator was developed. A total of 2317 patients underwent pulmonary resection for lung cancer/nodules. Prolonged air leak (8.6%, n = 200) was associated with significantly longer hospital stay (median 10 vs 4 days; P < .001). Final model variables associated with increased risk included low percent forced expiratory volume in 1 second, smoking history, bilobectomy, higher annual surgeon caseload, previous chest surgery, Zubrod score >2, and interaction terms for right-sided thoracotomy and wedge resection by thoracotomy. Wedge resection, higher body mass index, and unmeasured percent forced expiratory volume in 1 second were protective. Derived nomogram discriminatory accuracy was 76% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.79) and facilitated patient stratification into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups with monotonic increase in observed prolonged air leaks (2.0%, 8.9%, and 19.2%, respectively; P < .001). Patients at intermediate and high risk were 4.80 times (95% CI, 2.86-8.07) and 11.86 times (95% CI, 7.21-19.52) more likely to have prolonged air leak compared with patients at low risk. Using readily available candidate variables, our nomogram predicts increasing risk of prolonged air leak with good discriminatory ability. Risk stratification can support surgical decision making, and help initiate proactive, patient-specific surgical management. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive versus Software-Assisted Registration: Development of a New Nomogram Predicting Prostate Cancer at MRI-Targeted Biopsies.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Sascha; Russo, Giorgio I; Thaiss, Wolfgang; Notohamiprodjo, Mike; Bamberg, Fabian; Bedke, Jens; Morgia, Giuseppe; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Stenzl, Arnulf; Kruck, Stephan

2018-04-03

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) is gaining acceptance to guide targeted biopsy (TB) in prostate cancer (PC) diagnosis. We aimed to compare the detection rate of software-assisted fusion TB (SA-TB) versus cognitive fusion TB (COG-TB) for PC and to evaluate potential clinical features in detecting PC and clinically significant PC (csPC) at TB. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with rising and/or persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) undergoing mpMRI followed by either transperineal SA-TB or transrectal COG-TB. The analysis showed a matched-paired analysis between SA-TB versus COG-TB without differences in clinical or radiological characteristics. Differences among detection of PC/csPC among groups were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression model predicting PC at TB was fitted. The model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic-derived area under the curve, goodness of fit test, and decision-curve analyses. One hundred ninety-one and 87 patients underwent SA-TB or COG-TB, respectively. The multivariate logistic analysis showed that SA-TB was associated with overall PC (odds ratio [OR], 5.70; P < .01) and PC at TB (OR, 3.00; P < .01) but not with overall csPC (P = .40) and csPC at TB (P = .40). A nomogram predicting PC at TB was constructed using the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2.0, age, PSA density and biopsy technique, showing improved clinical risk prediction against a threshold probability of 10% with a c-index of 0.83. In patients with suspected PC, software-assisted biopsy detects most cancers and outperforms the cognitive approach in targeting magnetic resonance imaging-visible lesions. Furthermore, we introduced a prebiopsy nomogram for the probability of PC in TB. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of treatment success after Collagenase clostridium histolyticum injection for Peyronie's disease. Development of a nomogram from a multicentre single-arm, non-placebo controlled clinical study.

PubMed

Cocci, Andrea; Russo, Giorgio Ivan; Briganti, Alberto; Salonia, Andrea; Cacciamani, Giovanni; Capece, Marco; Falcone, Marco; Timpano, Massimiliano; Cito, Gianmartin; Verze, Paolo; Giammusso, Bruno; Morgia, Giuseppe; Mirone, Vincenzo; Minervini, Andrea; Gacci, Mauro; Cai, Tommaso; Serni, Sergio; Carini, Marco; Giubilei, Gianluca; Mondaini, Nicola

2018-05-23

To build-up a nomogram able to predict treatment success after Collagenase clostridium histolyticum (CCH) for Peyronie's disease (PD). From November 2016 to November 2017, we enrolled 135 patients with PD in a multicentre single-arm prospective study. All patients enrolled had a treatment with CCH. Success of therapy was defined as a penile curvature decrease of at least 20 degrees from baseline curvature. Treatment satisfaction was assessed using a scale from 1 to 10 and high satisfaction was arbitral defined as a score ≥8. The calcification level was classified as: absence of calcifications, low spots perilesional calcifications and high calcification. Median age was 56.0 (IQR [interquartile range]: 45.0,65.0) and median penile curvature (PC) was 30 degrees (IQR: 30.0,60.0). After the treatment protocol, we observed a significant median change for PC of -20.0 (p<0.01). The median percentage of penile curvature improvement was 44 (IQR: 28.0-67.0). Overall median satisfaction was 8.0 (IQR: 7.0-9.0). In total, treatment efficacy was reported in 77 patients (57.04%). When analysing factors associated with PC improvement after treatment, we found that baseline PC (OR= 1.14; p<0.01), basal plaque (OR= 64.27; p<0.01), low calcification (OR= 0.06; p<0.01) and high-calcification (OR= 0.03; p<0.01) were significant predictors of penile curvature improvement. The c-index for the model was 0.93. Patients with longer duration of the disease, greater baseline curvature and basal plaque localization were at greater chance of treatment success. These results could be applied into clinical practice before external validation of our nomogram. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir).

PubMed

Ganne-Carrié, Nathalie; Layese, Richard; Bourcier, Valérie; Cagnot, Carole; Marcellin, Patrick; Guyader, Dominique; Pol, Stanislas; Larrey, Dominique; de Lédinghen, Victor; Ouzan, Denis; Zoulim, Fabien; Roulot, Dominique; Tran, Albert; Bronowicki, Jean-Pierre; Zarski, Jean-Pierre; Riachi, Ghassan; Calès, Paul; Péron, Jean-Marie; Alric, Laurent; Bourlière, Marc; Mathurin, Philippe; Blanc, Jean-Frédéric; Abergel, Armand; Serfaty, Lawrence; Mallat, Ariane; Grangé, Jean-Didier; Attali, Pierre; Bacq, Yannick; Wartelle, Claire; Dao, Thông; Benhamou, Yves; Pilette, Christophe; Silvain, Christine; Christidis, Christos; Capron, Dominique; Bernard-Chabert, Brigitte; Zucman, David; Di Martino, Vincent; Trinchet, Jean-Claude; Nahon, Pierre; Roudot-Thoraval, Françoise

2016-10-01

The aim of this work was to develop an individualized score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C (HCV)-compensated cirrhosis. Among 1,323 patients with HCV cirrhosis enrolled in the French prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, 720 and 360 were randomly assigned to training and validation sets, respectively. Cox's multivariate model was used to predict HCC, after which a nomogram was computed to assess individualized risk. During follow-up (median, 51.0 months), 103 and 39 patients developed HCC in the training and validation sets, respectively. Five variables were independently associated with occurrence of HCC: age > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16; 3.25; P = 0.012); past excessive alcohol intake (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02; 2.36; P = 0.041); low platelet count (<100 Giga/mm(3) : HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.62; 4.51; P < 0.001; [100; 150] Giga/mm(3) : HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10; 3.18; P = 0.021); gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase above the upper limit of normal (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.11; 3.47; P = 0.021); and absence of a sustained virological response during follow-up (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.67; 5.48; P < 0.001). An 11-point risk score was derived from the training cohort and validated in the validation set. Based on this score, the population was stratified into three groups, in which HCC development gradually increased, from 0% to 30.1% at 5 years for patients with the lowest (≤3) and highest (≥8) scores (P < 0.001). Using this score, a nomogram was built enabling individualized prediction of HCC occurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years. This HCC score can accurately predict HCC at an individual level in French patients with HCV cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1136-1147). © 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Accelerated partial breast irradiation for elderly women with early breast cancer: A compromise between whole breast irradiation and omission of radiotherapy.

PubMed

Sumodhee, Shakeel; Levy, Johan; Chamorey, Emmanuel; Lam Cham Kee, Daniel; Chand, Marie-Eve; Gautier, Mathieu; Peyrottes, Isabelle; Barranger, Emmanuel; Hannoun-Levi, Jean-Michel

Regarding adjuvant radiation therapy making decision for elderly women, Albert (2013) published a nomogram predicting the mastectomy-free survival (MFS) rate with or without adjuvant irradiation. Based on this approach, we proposed to investigate the use of accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) vs. whole breast irradiation (WBI) or endocrine therapy alone in elderly low-risk breast cancer patients. For each elderly woman treated by conserving surgery and APBI (multicatheter interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy), 5- and 10-year MFS rates were calculated. For each treated patient, using the Albert nomogram, we calculated the estimated MFS rates at 5 and 10 years, with and without WBI. Then, we compared the estimated MFS rates after no irradiation and WBI vs. observed MFS rates after APBI. From 2005 to 2016, 79 patients were treated. Median followup was 96.8 months [68.6-104.9], median age was 77 years [66-89]. Expected 5- and 10-year mastectomy rates calculated with the Albert nomogram without WBI were 2.95% and 7.25%, respectively, leading to a 10-year MFS rate of 92.7%. Expected 5- and 10-year mastectomy rates after WBI were 1.41% and 3.66%, respectively, leading to a 10-year MFS rate of 96.3%. Regarding observed MFS rate, 1 pt (1.3%) experienced a salvage mastectomy. The 10-year MFS rate after APBI was 97.4% vs. 96.3% after WBI (p = 1) and 92.7% after no irradiation (p = 0.27). No toxicity Grade 3 or more was observed. APBI seems to be an attractive compromise between WBI and no irradiation for elderly women with early stage breast cancer as far as local control, quality of life and cost benefit is concerned. Copyright © 2017 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Presentation of Diagnostic Information to Doctors May Change Their Interpretation and Clinical Management: A Web-Based Randomised Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Collin, Simon M; Quekett, James; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Whiting, Penny

2015-01-01

There is little evidence on how best to present diagnostic information to doctors and whether this makes any difference to clinical management. We undertook a randomised controlled trial to see if different data presentations altered clinicians' decision to further investigate or treat a patient with a fictitious disorder ("Green syndrome") and their ability to determine post-test probability. We recruited doctors registered with the United Kingdom's largest online network for medical doctors between 10 July and 6" November 2012. Participants were randomised to one of four arms: (a) text summary of sensitivity and specificity, (b) Fagan's nomogram, (c) probability-modifying plot (PMP), (d) natural frequency tree (NFT). The main outcome measure was the decision whether to treat, not treat or undertake a brain biopsy on the hypothetical patient and the correct post-test probability. Secondary outcome measures included knowledge of diagnostic tests. 917 participants attempted the survey and complete data were available from 874 (95.3%). Doctors randomized to the PMP and NFT arms were more likely to treat the patient than those randomized to the text-only arm. (ORs 1.49, 95% CI 1.02, 2.16) and 1.43, 95% CI 0.98, 2.08 respectively). More patients randomized to the PMP (87/218-39.9%) and NFT (73/207-35.3%) arms than the nomogram (50/194-25.8%) or text only (30/255-11.8%) arms reported the correct post-test probability (p <0.001). Younger age, postgraduate training and higher self-rated confidence all predicted better knowledge performance. Doctors with better knowledge were more likely to view an optional learning tutorial (OR per correct answer 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.31). Presenting diagnostic data using a probability-modifying plot or natural frequency tree influences the threshold for treatment and improves interpretation of tests results compared to text summary of sensitivity and specificity or Fagan's nomogram.

Thermal Comfort: An Index for Hot, Humid Asia. Educational Building Digest 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Regional Office for Education in Asia and Oceania.

The sensation of thermal comfort is determined by a combination of air temperature, humidity of the air, rate of movement of the air, and radiant heat. This digest is intended to assist architects to design educational facilities that are as thermally comfortable as is possible without recourse to mechanical air conditioning. A nomogram is…

The balance of moments and the static longitudinal stability of airplanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Horst

1929-01-01

A nomogram is developed which renders it possible by drawing a few lines, to determine: the location of the center of gravity for zero wing and tail moments; the longitudinal dihedral angle; the tail coefficient F(sub h) iota/F(sub t). Moreover there is no difficulty in determining the magnitude of the restoring moment or of the unstable moment.

Anticoagulation Endpoints with Clinical Implementation of Warfarin Pharmacogenetic Dosing in a Real-World Setting – A Proposal for a New Pharmacogenetic Dosing Approach

PubMed Central

Arwood, Meghan J.; Deng, Jiexin; Drozda, Katarzyna; Pugach, Oksana; Nutescu, Edith A.; Schmidt, Stephan; Duarte, Julio D.; Cavallari, Larisa H.

2016-01-01

Achieving therapeutic anticoagulation efficiently with warfarin is important to reduce thrombotic and bleeding risks and is influenced by genotype. Utilizing data from a diverse population of 257 patients who received VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotype-guided warfarin dosing, we aimed to examine genotype-associated differences in anticoagulation endpoints and derive a novel pharmacogenetic nomogram to more optimally dose warfarin. We observed significant differences across patients with 0, 1, or ≥2 reduced-function VKORC1 or CYP2C9 alleles, respectively, in time to achieve therapeutic international normalized ratio (INR) (7.8±5.8, 7.2±4.7, and 5.4±4.6 days, P=0.0004) and mean percentage of time in therapeutic range in the first 28 days (22.2, 27.8, and 32.2%, P=0.0127) with use of existing pharmacogenetic algorithms. These data suggest that more aggressive dosing is necessary for patients with 0 to 1 VKORC1/CYP2C9 variants to more efficiently achieve therapeutic anticoagulation. Herein, we provide a novel kinetic/pharmacodynamic-derived dosing nomogram optimized for a heterogeneous patient population. PMID:28032893

Development of Decision Support Formulas for the Prediction of Bladder Outlet Obstruction and Prostatic Surgery in Patients With Lower Urinary Tract Symptom/Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Part I, Development of the Formula and its Internal Validation.

PubMed

Choo, Min Soo; Yoo, Changwon; Cho, Sung Yong; Jeong, Seong Jin; Jeong, Chang Wook; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June

2017-04-01

As the elderly population increases, a growing number of patients have lower urinary tract symptom (LUTS)/benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). The aim of this study was to develop decision support formulas and nomograms for the prediction of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and for BOO-related surgical decision-making, and to validate them in patients with LUTS/BPH. Patient with LUTS/BPH between October 2004 and May 2014 were enrolled as a development cohort. The available variables included age, International Prostate Symptom Score, free uroflowmetry, postvoid residual volume, total prostate volume, and the results of a pressure-flow study. A causal Bayesian network analysis was used to identify relevant parameters. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, formulas were developed to calculate the probabilities of having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery. Patients between June 2014 and December 2015 were prospectively enrolled for internal validation. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were performed. A total of 1,179 male patients with LUTS/BPH, with a mean age of 66.1 years, were included as a development cohort. Another 253 patients were enrolled as an internal validation cohort. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, 2 and 4 formulas were established to estimate the probabilities of having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery, respectively. Our analysis of the predictive accuracy of the model revealed area under the curve values of 0.82 for BOO and 0.87 for prostatic surgery. The sensitivity and specificity were 53.6% and 87.0% for BOO, and 91.6% and 50.0% for prostatic surgery, respectively. The calibration plot indicated that these prediction models showed a good correspondence. In addition, the decision curve analysis showed a high net benefit across the entire spectrum of probability thresholds. We established nomograms for the prediction of BOO and BOO-related prostatic surgery in patients with LUTS/BPH. Internal validation of the nomograms demonstrated that they predicted both having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery very well.

Personalized Estimate of Chemotherapy-Induced Nausea and Vomiting: Development and External Validation of a Nomogram in Cancer Patients Receiving Highly/Moderately Emetogenic Chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhihuang; Liang, Wenhua; Yang, Yunpeng; Keefe, Dorothy; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Xue, Cong; Huang, Yan; Zhao, Hongyun; Chen, Likun; Chan, Alexandre; Zhang, Li

2016-01-01

Abstract Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) is presented in over 30% of cancer patients receiving highly/moderately emetogenic chemotherapy (HEC/MEC). The currently recommended antiemetic therapy is merely based on the emetogenic level of chemotherapy, regardless of patient's individual risk factors. It is, therefore, critical to develop an approach for personalized management of CINV in the era of precision medicine. A number of variables were involved in the development of CINV. In the present study, we pooled the data from 2 multi-institutional investigations of CINV due to HEC/MEC treatment in Asian countries. Demographic and clinical variables of 881 patients were prospectively collected as defined previously, and 862 of them had full documentation of variables of interest. The data of 548 patients from Chinese institutions were used to identify variables associated with CINV using multivariate logistic regression model, and then construct a personalized prediction model of nomogram; while the remaining 314 patients out of China (Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) entered the external validation set. C-index was used to measure the discrimination ability of the model. The predictors in the final model included sex, age, alcohol consumption, history of vomiting pregnancy, history of motion sickness, body surface area, emetogenicity of chemotherapy, and antiemetic regimens. The C-index was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62–0.72) for the training set and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58–0.72) for the validation set. The C-index was higher than that of any single predictor, including the emetogenic level of chemotherapy according to current antiemetic guidelines. Calibration curves showed good agreement between prediction and actual occurrence of CINV. This easy-to-use prediction model was based on chemotherapeutic regimens as well as patient's individual risk factors. The prediction accuracy of CINV occurrence in this nomogram was well validated by an independent data set. It could facilitate the assessment of individual risk, and thus improve the personalized management of CINV. PMID:26765450

Uroflowmetry nomograms for healthy children 5 to 15 years old.

PubMed

Gupta, Dheeraj Kumar; Sankhwar, Satya Narayan; Goel, Apul

2013-09-01

We determined flow rates and generated flow rate-voided volume nomograms based on healthy children 5 to 15 years old voiding spontaneously in their natural environment. A total of 824 healthy school children of both genders were enrolled. A single uroflow record from each child was evaluated. A total of 103 children with a voided volume of less than 50 ml and/or a staccato/interrupted uroflow pattern were excluded, and 721 records were analyzed. Data were evaluated using several mathematical formulas and goodness of fit was determined. Linear regression analysis was used to generate nomograms. Flow rates and voided volumes increased with increasing age, with the effect being more pronounced in girls. No significant difference was noted in uroflow rates from 5 to 10 years, but significant differences (p <0.001) started appearing at 11 to 15 years. Also no significant difference was noted in uroflow rates among children 11 to 15 years. Therefore, 2 age groups were designated, with group 1 consisting of patients 5 to 10 years old and group 2 consisting of patients 11 to 15 years old. There were 222 boys and 122 girls in group 1 and 240 boys and 137 girls in group 2. In group 1 the maximum and average ± SD flow rates were 15.26 ± 4.54 ml per second and 7.68 ± 3.26 ml per second, respectively, for boys and 17.98 ± 6.06 ml per second and 9.19 ± 4.23 ml per second, respectively, for girls. In group 2 these rates were 22.50 ± 7.24 ml per second and 10.78 ± 4.03 ml per second, respectively, for boys and 27.16 ± 9.37 ml per second and 13.48 ± 5.21 ml per second, respectively, for girls. This large study, which expands the scant existing literature on uroflow parameters in healthy children, will hopefully promote wider application of uroflowmetry testing in the pediatric population. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sentinel Lymph Node Dissection to Select Clinically Node-negative Prostate Cancer Patients for Pelvic Radiation Therapy: Effect on Biochemical Recurrence and Systemic Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grivas, Nikolaos, E-mail: n.grivas@nki.nl; Wit, Esther; Pos, Floris

Purpose: To assess the efficacy of robotic-assisted laparoscopic sentinel lymph node (SLN) dissection (SLND) to select those patients with prostate cancer (PCa) who would benefit from additional pelvic external beam radiation therapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods and Materials: Radioisotope-guided SLND was performed in 224 clinically node-negative patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiation therapy. Patients with histologically positive SLNs (pN1) were also offered radiation therapy to the pelvic lymph nodes, combined with 3 years of ADT. Biochemical recurrence (BCR), overall survival, and metastasis-free (including pelvic and nonregional lymph nodes) survival (MFS) rates were retrospectively calculated. The Briganti andmore » Kattan nomogram predictions were compared with the observed pN status and BCR. Results: The median prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value was 15.4 ng/mL (interquartile range [IQR] 8-29). A total number of 834 SLNs (median 3 per patient; IQR 2-5) were removed. Nodal metastases were diagnosed in 42% of the patients, with 150 SLNs affected (median 1; IQR 1-2). The 5-year BCR-free and MFS rates for pN0 patients were 67.9% and 87.8%, respectively. The corresponding values for pN1 patients were 43% and 66.6%. The PSA level and number of removed SLNs were independent predictors of BCR and MFS, and pN status was an additional independent predictor of BCR. The 5-year overall survival rate was 97.6% and correlated only with pN status. The predictive accuracy of the Briganti nomogram was 0.665. Patients in the higher quartiles of Kattan nomogram prediction of BCR had better than expected outcomes. The complication rate from SLND was 8.9%. Conclusions: For radioisotope-guided SLND, the high staging accuracy is accompanied by low morbidity. The better than expected outcomes observed in the lower quartiles of BCR prediction suggest a role for SLN biopsy as a potential selection tool for the addition of pelvic radiation therapy and ADT intensification in pN1 patients.« less

Presentation of Diagnostic Information to Doctors May Change Their Interpretation and Clinical Management: A Web-Based Randomised Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Collin, Simon M.; Quekett, James; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.; Whiting, Penny

2015-01-01

Background There is little evidence on how best to present diagnostic information to doctors and whether this makes any difference to clinical management. We undertook a randomised controlled trial to see if different data presentations altered clinicians’ decision to further investigate or treat a patient with a fictitious disorder (“Green syndrome”) and their ability to determine post-test probability. Methods We recruited doctors registered with the United Kingdom’s largest online network for medical doctors between 10 July and 6” November 2012. Participants were randomised to one of four arms: (a) text summary of sensitivity and specificity, (b) Fagan’s nomogram, (c) probability-modifying plot (PMP), (d) natural frequency tree (NFT). The main outcome measure was the decision whether to treat, not treat or undertake a brain biopsy on the hypothetical patient and the correct post-test probability. Secondary outcome measures included knowledge of diagnostic tests. Results 917 participants attempted the survey and complete data were available from 874 (95.3%). Doctors randomized to the PMP and NFT arms were more likely to treat the patient than those randomized to the text-only arm. (ORs 1.49, 95% CI 1.02, 2.16) and 1.43, 95% CI 0.98, 2.08 respectively). More patients randomized to the PMP (87/218–39.9%) and NFT (73/207–35.3%) arms than the nomogram (50/194–25.8%) or text only (30/255–11.8%) arms reported the correct post-test probability (p <0.001). Younger age, postgraduate training and higher self-rated confidence all predicted better knowledge performance. Doctors with better knowledge were more likely to view an optional learning tutorial (OR per correct answer 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.31). Conclusions Presenting diagnostic data using a probability-modifying plot or natural frequency tree influences the threshold for treatment and improves interpretation of tests results compared to text summary of sensitivity and specificity or Fagan’s nomogram. PMID:26147744

The Castaldi Nomogram. An Aid for Translating the Curriculum of Junior and Senior High Schools into the Necessary Number of Instructional Spaces or Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castaldi, Basil

This aid consists of three specially designed charts for determining the number of teaching stations required to house any given enrollment of pupils in any subject. Further uses are to determine class size, to discover the adequacy of proposed multi-purpose rooms, and to compute the fraction of a school day any room will be used. A specific…

Risk factors for in-hospital post-hip fracture mortality.

PubMed

Frost, Steven A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Black, Deborah A; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V

2011-09-01

Approximately 10% of hip fracture patients die during hospitalization; however, it is not clear what risk factors contribute to the excess mortality. This study sought to examine risk factors of, and to develop prognostic model for, predicting in-hospital mortality among hip fracture patients. We studied outcomes among 410 men and 1094 women with a hip fracture who were admitted to a major-teaching-hospital in Sydney (Australia) between 1997 and 2007. Clinical data, including concomitant illnesses, were obtained from inpatient data. The primary outcome of the study was in-hospital mortality regardless of length of stay. A Log-binomial regression model was used to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Using the identified risk factors, prognostic nomograms were developed for predicting short term risk of mortality for an individual. The median duration of hospitalization was 9 days. During hospitalization, the risk of mortality was higher in men (9%) than in women (4%). After adjusting for multiple risk factors, increased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with advancing age (rate ratio [RR] for each 10-year increase in age: 1.91 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.49), in men (RR 2.13; 95% CI 1.41 to 3.22), and the presence of comorbid conditions on admission (RR for one or more comorbid conditions vs. none: 2.30; 95% CI 1.52 to 3.48). Specifically, the risk of mortality was increased in patients with a pre-existing congestive heart failure (RR 3.02; 95% CI: 1.65 to 5.54), and liver disease (RR 4.75; 95% CI: 1.87 to 12.1). These factors collectively accounted for 69% of the risk for in-hospital mortality. A nomogram was developed from these risk factors to individualize the risk of in-hospital death following a hip fracture. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model containing age, sex and comorbid conditions was 0.76. These data suggest that among hip fracture patients, advancing age, gender (men), and pre-existing concomitant diseases such as congestive heart failure and liver disease were the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The nomogram developed from this study can be used to convey useful prognostic information to help guide treatment decisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trifluridine/Tipiracil (TAS-102) in Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Multicenter Register in the Frame of the Italian Compassionate Use Program.

PubMed

Cremolini, Chiara; Rossini, Daniele; Martinelli, Erika; Pietrantonio, Filippo; Lonardi, Sara; Noventa, Silvia; Tamburini, Emiliano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca; Mosconi, Stefania; Nichetti, Federico; Murgioni, Sabina; Troiani, Teresa; Borelli, Beatrice; Zucchelli, Gemma; Dal Maso, Alessandro; Sforza, Vincenzo; Masi, Gianluca; Antoniotti, Carlotta; Di Bartolomeo, Maria; Miceli, Rosalba; Ciardiello, Fortunato; Falcone, Alfredo

2018-05-08

TAS-102 is indicated for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) previously treated with, or not considered candidates for, available therapies. Given the complete inefficacy in half of patients, the lack of predictive factors, the palliative setting, and the financial and clinical toxicity, optimizing the cost-benefit ratio is crucial. The "ColonLife" nomogram allows an estimate of the 12-week life expectancy of patients with refractory mCRC. We collected data from patients treated at eight Italian centers in the compassionate use program. Baseline characteristics of patients who were or were not progression free at 6 months were compared. The discriminative ability of the ColonLife nomogram was assessed. Among patients who received both TAS-102 and regorafenib, clinical outcomes of the two sequences were compared. This study included 341 patients. Six (2%) and 93 (27%) patients achieved response and disease stabilization, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 2.4 months with an estimated 6-month PFS rate of 19%; the median overall survival (OS) was 6.2 months. An Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 0, normal lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and a time from the diagnosis of metastatic disease of >18 months were independently associated with higher chances of a patient being progression free at 6 months. The discriminative ability of ColonLife was confirmed. Among 121 patients who received both regorafenib and TAS-102, no differences in first or second PFS or OS were reported between the two sequences. One out of five patients achieves clinical benefit with TAS-102. ECOG PS, LDH, and time from diagnosis of metastatic disease may help to identify these patients. Excluding patients with very short life expectancy appears a reasonable approach. Improving the cost-efficacy ratio of TAS-102 in metastatic colorectal cancer is needed to spare useless toxicities in a definitely palliative setting. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and time from the diagnosis of metastatic disease may help to identify patients more likely to achieve benefit. Properly designed prognostic tools (i.e., the "ColonLife" nomogram) may enable excluding from further treatments patients with very limited life expectancy. © AlphaMed Press 2018.

Predictive Nomogram for the Durability of Pain Relief From Gamma Knife Radiation Surgery in the Treatment of Trigeminal Neuralgia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, John T., E-mail: johnthomas75@gmail.com; Nida, Adrian M.; Isom, Scott

Purpose: To determine factors associated with the durability of stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) for treatment of trigeminal neuralgia (TN). Methods and Materials: Between 1999 and 2008, 446 of 777 patients with TN underwent SRS and had evaluable follow-up in our electronic medical records and phone interview records. The median follow-up was 21.2 months. The Barrow Neurologic Institute (BNI) pain scale was used to determine pre- and post-SRS pain. Dose-volume anatomical measurements, Burchiel pain subtype, pain quality, prior procedures, and medication usage were included in this retrospective cohort to identify factors impacting the time to BNI 4-5 pain relapse by using Cox proportionalmore » hazard regression. An internet-based nomogram was constructed based on predictive factors of durable relief pre- and posttreatment at 6-month intervals. Results: Rates of freedom from BNI 4-5 failure at 1, 3, and 5 years were 84.5%, 70.4%, and 46.9%, respectively. Pain relief was BNI 1-3 at 1, 3, and 5 years in 86.1%, 74.3%, and 51.3% of type 1 patients; 79.3%, 46.2%, and 29.3% of type 2 patients; and 62.7%, 50.2%, and 25% of atypical facial pain patients. BNI type 1 pain score was achieved at 1, 3, and 5 years in 62.9%, 43.5%, and 22.0% of patients with type 1 pain and in 47.5%, 25.2%, and 9.2% of type 2 patients, respectively. Only 13% of patients with atypical facial pain achieved BNI 1 response; 42% of patients developed post-Gamma Knife radiation surgery (GKRS) trigeminal dysfunction. Multivariate analysis revealed that post-SRS numbness (hazard ratio [HR], 0.47; P<.0001), type 1 (vs type 2) TN (HR, 0.6; P=.02), and improved post-SRS BNI score at 6 months (HR, 0.009; P<.0001) were predictive of a durable pain response. Conclusions: The durability of SRS for TN depends on the presenting Burchiel pain type, the post-SRS BNI score, and the presence of post-SRS facial numbness. The durability of pain relief can be estimated pre- and posttreatment by using our nomogram for situations when the potential of relapse may guide the decision for initial intervention.« less

Construction of a model predicting the risk of tube feeding intolerance after gastrectomy for gastric cancer based on 225 cases from a single Chinese center

PubMed Central

Xiaoyong, Wu; Xuzhao, Li; Deliang, Yu; Pengfei, Yu; Zhenning, Hang; Bin, Bai; zhengyan, Li; Fangning, Pang; Shiqi, Wang; Qingchuan, Zhao

2017-01-01

Identifying patients at high risk of tube feeding intolerance (TFI) after gastric cancer surgery may prevent the occurrence of TFI; however, a predictive model is lacking. We therefore analyzed the incidence of TFI and its associated risk factors after gastric cancer surgery in 225 gastric cancer patients divided into without-TFI (n = 114) and with-TFI (n = 111) groups. A total of 49.3% of patients experienced TFI after gastric cancer. Multivariate analysis identified a history of functional constipation (FC), a preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score of III, a high pain score at 6-hour postoperation, and a high white blood cell (WBC) count on the first day after surgery as independent risk factors for TFI. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.756, with an optimal cut-off value of 0.5410. In order to identify patients at high risk of TFI after gastric cancer surgery, we constructed a predictive nomogram model based on the selected independent risk factors to indicate the probability of developing TFI. Use of our predictive nomogram model in screening, if a probability > 0.5410, indicated a high-risk patients would with a 70.1% likelihood of developing TFI. These high-risk individuals should take measures to prevent TFI before feeding with enteral nutrition. PMID:29245951

Modeling the onset and offset of dental pain relief by ibuprofen.

PubMed

Li, Hanbin; Mandema, Jaap; Wada, Russell; Jayawardena, Shyamalie; Desjardins, Paul; Doyle, Geraldine; Kellstein, David

2012-01-01

Onset and offset of dental pain relief by ibuprofen following third molar extraction were modeled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, 8-hour study of patients receiving either a novel effervescent ibuprofen tablet (400 mg; N = 30), standard ibuprofen tablets (Nurofen(®) 2 × 200 mg; N = 22), or placebo (N = 37). An Emax model was fit to pain relief scores. Linear hazard models were used to analyze the time to first perceptible relief (TFPR), the time to meaningful pain relief (TMPR), and time to remedication (REMD). Nomograms were created to correlate TFPR, TMPR, and REMD with different ibuprofen pharmacokinetic profiles. Effervescent ibuprofen was absorbed rapidly with 95% completion within 15 minutes. Maximum pain relief score by ibuprofen was 1.8 units greater than placebo, with an EC50 (effect-site) for ibuprofen concentration of 10.2 µg·mL(-1). The likelihood to achieve TFPR and TMPR was doubled for every 10 µg·mL(-1) increase in ibuprofen plasma concentration. REMD risk decreased 40-fold as the categorical pain relief score increased from 0 to 3. Rapid absorption of ibuprofen effervescent resulted in an earlier TFPR and TMPR, and a lower REMD rate than standard ibuprofen. The nomograms may be useful in predicting the onset and offset of new faster acting ibuprofen formulations, based on pharmacokinetic profiles.

A pilot study evaluating a new questionnaire for prostatic symptom scoring, the SPSS, and its sensitivity as constructed to objective measures of outflow obstruction.

PubMed

Yano, Masataka; Kitahara, Satoshi; Yasuda, Kosaku; Yamanishi, Tomonori; Nakai, Hideo; Yanagisawa, Ryouzo; Morozumi, Makoto; Homma, Yukio

2004-05-01

To evaluate the extent to which our newly developed questionnaire, the Saitama Prostate Symptom Score (SPSS), for prostatic symptom scoring reflects objective findings in benign prostatic hyperplasia (clinical BPH) and to compare it with the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) with regard to diagnostic sensitivity in clinical BPH. In this study, both the SPSS and the IPSS were self-administered by patients. Free uroflowmetry, a pressure-flow study and the measurement of prostatic volume were carried out. There was no significant correlation between the results of the IPSS questionnaire and the urethral obstruction grade estimated by Schaefer or Abrams-Griffiths nomograms. The total score of the SPSS was correlated with these nomograms (P = 0.0487 and P = 0.0413, respectively). There was no significant correlation between the results of the IPSS questionnaire and the total volume or transition zone volume of the prostate, whereas the total score of the SPSS correlated with the total volume of the gland and transition zone volume (P = 0.0044 and P= 0.0051, respectively). This study revealed the SPSS to correlate with objective findings satisfactorily. However, there are still several aspects of the SPSS which need to be improved upon, and the questionnaire should be studied in larger numbers of patients suffering from lower urinary tract symptoms.

Reference values in ovarian response to controlled ovarian stimulation throughout the reproductive period.

PubMed

La Marca, Antonio; Grisendi, Valentina; Spada, Elena; Argento, Cindy; Milani, Silvano; Plebani, Maddalena; Seracchioli, Renato; Volpe, Annibale

2014-01-01

Abstract The age-related decline in ovarian response to gonadotropins has been well known since the beginning of ovarian stimulation in IVF cycles and has been considered secondary to the age-related decline in ovarian reserve. The objective of this study was to establish reference values and to construct nomograms of ovarian response for any specific age to gonadotropins in IVF/ICSI cycles. We analyzed our database containing information on IVF cycles. According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 703 patients were selected. Among inclusion criteria, there were regular menstrual cycle, treatment with a long GnRH agonist protocol and starting follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) dose of at least 200 IU per day. To estimate the reference values of ovarian response, the CG-LMS method was used. A linear decline in the parameters of ovarian response with age was observed: the median number of oocytes decreases approximately by one every three years, and the median number of follicles >16 mm by one every eight years. The number of oocytes and growing follicles corresponding to the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th centiles has been calculated. This study confirmed the well known negative relationship between ovarian response to FSH and female ageing and permitted the construction of nomograms of ovarian response.

Proposal of a pharmacokinetically optimized dosage regimen of antibiotics in patients receiving continuous hemodiafiltration.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Takehito; Yasuno, Nobuhiro; Katada, Shoichi; Hisaka, Akihiro; Hanafusa, Norio; Noiri, Eisei; Yahagi, Naoki; Fujita, Toshiro; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2011-12-01

The aim of the study was to quantitatively predict the clearance of three antibiotics, amikacin, vancomycin, and teicoplanin, during continuous hemodiafiltration (CHDF) and to propose their optimal dosage in patients receiving CHDF. For this goal, in vitro CHDF experiments with a polyacrylonitrile (PAN) membrane were first performed using these antibiotics, and then the clearances were compared with in vivo CHDF situations determined in 16 critically ill patients. The in vitro CHDF clearances were described as the product of the outflow rate of a drain (Q(outflow)) and the drug unbound fraction in artificial plasma, indicating that drug adsorption to the PAN membrane has minor effect on drug clearance in our settings. The observed in vivo clearances also agreed very well with the predicted values, with a product of Q(outflow) and plasma unbound fraction, when residual creatinine clearance (CL(CR)) was taken into account (within a range of 0.67- to 1.5-fold for 15 of 16 patients). Based on these results, a nomogram of the optimized dosages of amikacin, vancomycin, and teicoplanin was proposed, and it was evident that Q(outflow) and residual CL(CR) are major determinants of the dosage and dosing interval for these antibiotics. Although the applicability needs to be confirmed with another type of membrane or higher Q(outflow), our nomogram can help determine the dosage setting in critically ill patients receiving CHDF.

Comparison of flowrates and voided volumes during non-instrumented uroflowmetry and pressure-flow studies in women with stress incontinence.

PubMed

Mueller, Elizabeth R; Litman, Heather; Rickey, Leslie R; Sirls, Larry; Norton, Peggy; Wilson, Tracey; Moalli, Pamela; Albo, Michael; Zimmern, Philippe

2015-08-01

The Blaivas-Groutz nomogram defines voiding obstruction in women using Qmax from the NIF and the maximum detrusor pressure (Pdetmax ) from the PFS. The aim of this study was to understand the relationship between NIF and PFS maximum flow rates in women with stress incontinence. We analyzed the UDS of 597 women with stress-dominant urinary incontinence. Each subject underwent a NIF and then a PFS. Mixed model was used to test the hypothesis that the relationship between flow rates and voided volume (VV) were similar for NIF and PFS. There were 452 subjects with both NIF and PFS studies that met the inclusion criteria and had max flow rate (Qmax ) for both NIF and PFS. The mean age was 53. Overall, higher VV were observed during PFS compared to NIF and subjects had higher Qmax with NIF compared to PFS. The relationship between Qmax and VV was significantly different between NIF and PFS (P < 0.004). At 200 ml, NIF Qmax was 14% higher than PFS Qmax and this difference increased to 30% at 700 ml. The difference between PFS Qmax and NIF Qmax increases as VV increase. As a result, values from PFS and NIF cannot be used interchangeably as has been suggested in the Blaivas-Groutz nomogram for obstruction in women. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

COMPARISON OF FLOWRATES AND VOIDED VOLUMES DURING NON-INSTRUMENTED UROFLOWMETRY AND PRESSURE-FLOW STUDIES IN WOMEN WITH STRESS INCONTINENCE

PubMed Central

Mueller, ER; Litman, H; Rickey, LR; Sirls, L; Norton, P; Wilson, T; Moalli, P; Albo, M; Zimmern, P

2014-01-01

Aims The Blaivas-Groutz nomogram defines voiding obstruction in women using Qmax from the NIF and the maximum detrusor pressure (Pdetmax) from the PFS. The aim of this study was to understand the relationship between NIF and PFS maximum flow rates in women with stress incontinence. Methods We analyzed the UDS of 597 women with stress-dominant urinary incontinence. Each subject underwent a NIF and then a PFS. Mixed model was used to test the hypothesis that the relationship between flow rates and voided volume were similar for NIF and PFS. Results There were 452 subjects with both NIF and PFS studies that met the inclusion criteria and had max flow rate (Qmax) for both NIF and PFS. The mean age was 53. Overall, higher voided volumes were observed during PFS compared to NIF and subjects had higher Qmax with NIF compared to PFS. The relationship between Qmax and VV was significantly different between NIF and PFS (p < 0.004). At 200 mL, NIF Qmax was 14% higher than PFS Qmax and this difference increased to 30% at 700mL. Conclusion The difference between PFS Qmax and NIF Qmax increases as voided volumes increase. As a result, values from PFS and NIF cannot be used interchangeably as has been suggested in the Blaivas-Groutz nomogram for obstruction in women. PMID:24797058

Echocardiographic nomograms for upper abdominal aorta Doppler systolic wave values and systo-diastolic diameters variations in children.

PubMed

Cantinotti, Massimiliano; Giordano, Raffaele; Corsini, Iuri; Dani, Carlo; Scalese, Marco; Murzi, Bruno; Assanta, Nadia; Spadoni, Isabella; Molinaro, Sabrina; Kutty, Shelby; Iervasi, Giorgio; Franchi, Eliana

2018-04-01

Abdominal aorta pulsatility and blood flow patterns are important diagnostic indicators in congenital heart disease. Reference values for these indexes are lacking. We prospectively studied abdominal aorta pulsed-wave Doppler systolic peak velocity, deceleration time, and wave duration, and two-dimensional vessel diameters in systole and diastole in healthy Caucasian children. Heteroscedasticity was accounted for by White or Breusch-Pagan test. Age, weight, height, heart rate (HR), and body surface area (BSA) were used as independent variables in different analyses to predict the mean values of each measurement. Structured Z-scores were then computed. In all, 853 subjects (age 0 days to 17 years; 45% females; BSA 0.12-2.12m 2 ) were studied. The predicted values and Z-score boundaries are presented. Data are also presented as mean±2 SDs for a given BSA. We report paediatric echocardiographic nomograms for multiple proximal abdominal aorta parameters including pulsed-wave Doppler systolic velocities, deceleration time, wave duration, and two-dimensional vessel diameter variations. Significant variations in these functional indexes with age were found that should be taken into account in clinical practice. At lower ages, steeper and shorter pulsed-wave Doppler peak velocity and limited pulsatility should be expected as physiologic findings. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individualised prediction model of seizure recurrence and long-term outcomes after withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs in seizure-free patients: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lamberink, Herm J; Otte, Willem M; Geerts, Ada T; Pavlovic, Milen; Ramos-Lizana, Julio; Marson, Anthony G; Overweg, Jan; Sauma, Letícia; Specchio, Luigi M; Tennison, Michael; Cardoso, Tania M O; Shinnar, Shlomo; Schmidt, Dieter; Geleijns, Karin; Braun, Kees P J

2017-07-01

People with epilepsy who became seizure-free while taking antiepileptic drugs might consider discontinuing their medication, with the possibility of increased quality of life because of the elimination of adverse events. The risk with this action, however, is seizure recurrence. The objectives of our study were to identify predictors of seizure recurrence and long-term seizure outcomes and to produce nomograms for estimation of individualised outcomes. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis, and identified eligible articles and candidate predictors, using PubMed and Embase databases with a last update on Nov 6, 2014. Eligible articles had to report on cohorts of patients with epilepsy who were seizure-free and had started withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs; articles also had to contain information regarding seizure recurrences during and after withdrawal. We excluded surgical cohorts, reports with fewer than 30 patients, and reports on acute symptomatic seizures because these topics were beyond the scope of our objective. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies system. Data analysis was based on individual participant data. Survival curves and proportional hazards were computed. The strongest predictors were selected with backward selection. Models were converted to nomograms and a web-based tool to determine individual risks. We identified 45 studies with 7082 patients; ten studies (22%) with 1769 patients (25%) were included in the meta-analysis. Median follow-up was 5·3 years (IQR 3·0-10·0, maximum 23 years). Prospective and retrospective studies and randomised controlled trials were included, covering non-selected and selected populations of both children and adults. Relapse occurred in 812 (46%) of 1769 patients; 136 (9%) of 1455 for whom data were available had seizures in their last year of follow-up, suggesting enduring seizure control was not regained by this timepoint. Independent predictors of seizure recurrence were epilepsy duration before remission, seizure-free interval before antiepileptic drug withdrawal, age at onset of epilepsy, history of febrile seizures, number of seizures before remission, absence of a self-limiting epilepsy syndrome, developmental delay, and epileptiform abnormality on electroencephalogram (EEG) before withdrawal. Independent predictors of seizures in the last year of follow-up were epilepsy duration before remission, seizure-free interval before antiepileptic drug withdrawal, number of antiepileptic drugs before withdrawal, female sex, family history of epilepsy, number of seizures before remission, focal seizures, and epileptiform abnormality on EEG before withdrawal. Adjusted concordance statistics were 0·65 (95% CI 0·65-0·66) for predicting seizure recurrence and 0·71 (0·70-0·71) for predicting long-term seizure freedom. Validation was stable across the individual study populations. We present evidence-based nomograms with robust performance across populations of children and adults. The nomograms facilitate prediction of outcomes following drug withdrawal for the individual patient, including both the risk of relapse and the chance of long-term freedom from seizures. The main limitations were the absence of a control group continuing antiepileptic drug treatment and a consistent definition of long-term seizure freedom. Epilepsiefonds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ejector flowmeter as air/oxygen mixing device. An apparatus providing gas mixtures with adjustable oxygen content for high-flow humidification systems.

PubMed

Christensen, K N; Waaben, J; Jørgensen, S

1980-04-01

The ejector flowmeter is constructed for continuous removal of excess gas from anaesthetic circuits. This instrument can be used as an air/oxygen mixing device for high-flow humidification systems in wards where compressed air is not available. Pure oxygen is used as driving gas through the ejector. A nomogram has been constructed to show the relationship between oxygen driving pressure, inlet of air to the flowmeter, FIO2 and total outflow.

Printer, Photographic, Horizontal Projection, Rectifying, Tilts Under 70 Deg., for 9 1/2 Inch Aerial Roll Film

DTIC Science & Technology

1950-03-13

order to correct for refraction in the stage glass. The negative is canted about a vertical axis through its front surface by the hand wheel on the side...1 __ I_-- -_- • RNEGTFMO PHOTOGRONq Fig. 31. DiagraM of geometrica relations of modfied Bauch an Lam rectifier. 24i determination of settings such...Neither the nomograms nor the slide rule will give the de- sired accuracy where precise, geometrically correct , rectifications are to be made; however

Biological and Genomic Differences of ERG Oncoprotein-Stratified Prostate Cancers from African and Caucasian Americans

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

enriched for European ancestry in cases with the fusion compared to cases without the fusion will be captured. A total of 400 AA individuals with CaP...variants (SNPs), admixture mapping, European and African ancestry, somatic mutations, aggressive cancer, nomograms 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: o What were the... European ancestry in cases with the TMPRSS2-ERG fusion, compared to cases without the fusion, will be captured. A total of 400 AA individuals will be

Novel Nomogram That Predicts Aggressive Disease and Treatment Failure Among African-American Men with Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

analyzed including TMPRSS2-ERG, AMACR, PSMA , RB, c- Myc, and AR. We observed statistically significant differences in biomarker expression between EA...biomarkers have been analyzed so far including TMPRSS2-ERG, AMACR, PSMA , RB, c-Myc, and AR. In this cohort we observed statistically significant...markers or markers that give relative intensity - p53, p63, Ki67, PSMA , AR - Other 12 markers will be read as present/absent/indeterminate etc

Novel Nomogram That Predicts Aggressive Disease and Treatment Failure Among African-American Men with Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

and 55 AA men within the SCORE database. To date, 6 biomarkers have been analyzed including TMPRSS2-ERG, AMACR, PSMA , RB, c- Myc, and AR. We...analyzed so far including TMPRSS2-ERG, AMACR, PSMA , RB, c-Myc, and AR. In this cohort we observed statistically significant differences in marker...clinical practice. Not yet addressed Conclusion: Of the 20 biomarkers selected, six have been interrogated by IHC including TMPRSS2-ERG, AMACR, PSMA

Combination of c-reactive protein and squamous cell carcinoma antigen in predicting postoperative prognosis for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

PubMed

Feng, Ji-Feng; Chen, Sheng; Yang, Xun

2017-09-08

We initially proposed a useful and novel prognostic model, named CCS [Combination of c-reactive protein (CRP) and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC)], for predicting the postoperative survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Two hundred and fifty-two patients with resectable ESCC were included in this retrospective study. A logistic regression was performed and yielded a logistic equation. The CCS was calculated by the combined CRP and SCC. The optimal cut-off value for CCS was evaluated by X-tile program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the predictive factors. In addition, a novel nomogram model was also performed to predict the prognosis for patients with ESCC. In the current study, CCS was calculated as CRP+6.33 SCC according to the logistic equation. The optimal cut-off value was 15.8 for CCS according to the X-tile program. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that high CCS group had a significantly poor 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) than low CCS group (10.3% vs. 47.3%, P <0.001). According to multivariate analyses, CCS ( P =0.004), but not CRP ( P =0.466) or SCC ( P =0.926), was an independent prognostic factor. A nomogram could be more accuracy for CSS (Harrell's c-index: 0.70). The CCS is a usefull and independent predictive factor in patients with ESCC.

Scoring system to guide decision making for the use of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponge to prevent deep sternal wound infection.

PubMed

Benedetto, Umberto; Raja, Shahzad G

2014-11-01

The effectiveness of the routine retrosternal placement of a gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponge (GICS) implant before sternotomy closure is currently a matter of some controversy. We aimed to develop a scoring system to guide decision making for the use of GICS to prevent deep sternal wound infection. Fast backward elimination on predictors, including GICS, was performed using the Lawless and Singhal method. The scoring system was reported as a partial nomogram that can be used to manually obtain predicted individual risk of deep sternal wound infection from the regression model. Bootstrapping validation of the regression models was performed. The final populations consisted of 8750 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy during the study period. A total of 329 patients (3.8%) received GICS implant. The overall incidence of deep sternal wound infection was lower among patients who received GICS implant (0.6%) than patients who did not (2.01%) (P=.02). A nomogram to predict the individual risk for deep sternal wound infection was developed that included the use of GICS. Bootstrapping validation confirmed a good discriminative power of the models. The scoring system provides an impartial assessment of the decision-making process for clinicians to establish if GICS implant is effective in reducing the risk for deep sternal wound infection in individual patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can stress biomarkers predict preterm birth in women with threatened preterm labor?

PubMed

García-Blanco, Ana; Diago, Vicente; Serrano De La Cruz, Verónica; Hervás, David; Cháfer-Pericás, Consuelo; Vento, Máximo

2017-09-01

Preterm birth is a major paediatric challenge difficult to prevent and with major adverse outcomes. Prenatal stress plays an important role on preterm birth; however, there are few stress-related models to predict preterm birth in women with Threatened Preterm Labor (TPL). The aim of this work is to study the influence of stress biomarkers on time until birth in TPL women. Eligible participants were pregnant women between 24 and 31 gestational weeks admitted to the hospital with TPL diagnosis (n=166). Stress-related biomarkers (α-amylase and cortisol) were determined in saliva samples after TPL diagnosis. Participants were followed-up until labor. A parametric survival model was constructed based on α-amylase, cortisol), TPL gestational week, age, parity, and multiple pregnancy. The model was adjusted using a logistic distribution and it was implemented as a nomogram to predict the labor probability at 7- and 14-day term. The time until labor was associated with cortisol (p=0.001), gestational week at TPL diagnosis (p=0.004), and age (p=0.02). Importantly, high cortisol levels at TPL diagnosis were predictive of latency to labor. Validation of the model yielded an optimum corrected AUC value of 0.63. High cortisol levels at TPL diagnosis may have an important role in the preterm birth prediction. Our statistical model implemented as a nomogram provided accurate predictions of individual prognosis of pregnant women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maturation of human hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid function and control.

PubMed

Fisher, D A; Nelson, J C; Carlton, E I; Wilcox, R B

2000-03-01

Measurements of serum thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (T4) concentrations were conducted in infants, children, and adults to assess maturation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) feedback control axis. Serum free T4 and TSH concentration data were collated for cord blood of the midgestation fetus, for premature and term infants, and for peripheral blood from newborn infants, children, and adults. Mean values were plotted on a nomogram developed to characterize the reference ranges of the normal axis quantitatively based on data from 522 healthy subjects, 2 weeks to 54 years of age; 83 untreated hypothyroid patients; and 116 untreated hyperthyroid patients. Samples for 75 patients with thyroid hormone resistance were also plotted. The characterized pattern of HPT maturation included a progressive decrease in the TSH/free T4 ratio with age, from 15 in the midterm fetus, to 4.7 in term infants, and 0.97 in adults. Maturation plotted on the nomogram was complex, suggesting increasing hypothalamic-pituitary T4 resistance during fetal development, probably secondary to increasing thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) secretion, the marked, cold-stimulated TRH-TSH surge at birth with reequilibration by 2-20 weeks, and a final maturation phase characterized by a decreasing serum TSH with minimal change in free T4 concentration during childhood and adolescence. The postnatal maturative phase during childhood and adolescence correlates with the progressive decrease in thyroxine secretion rate (on a microg/kg per day basis) and metabolic rate and probably reflects decreasing TRH secretion.

Derivation and Validation of a Biomarker-Based Clinical Algorithm to Rule Out Sepsis From Noninfectious Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome at Emergency Department Admission: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mearelli, Filippo; Fiotti, Nicola; Giansante, Carlo; Casarsa, Chiara; Orso, Daniele; De Helmersen, Marco; Altamura, Nicola; Ruscio, Maurizio; Castello, Luigi Mario; Colonetti, Efrem; Marino, Rossella; Barbati, Giulia; Bregnocchi, Andrea; Ronco, Claudio; Lupia, Enrico; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Di Somma, Salvatore; Avanzi, Gian Carlo; Biolo, Gianni

2018-05-07

To derive and validate a predictive algorithm integrating a nomogram-based prediction of the pretest probability of infection with a panel of serum biomarkers, which could robustly differentiate sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Multicenter prospective study. At emergency department admission in five University hospitals. Nine-hundred forty-seven adults in inception cohort and 185 adults in validation cohort. None. A nomogram, including age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, recent antimicrobial therapy, hyperthermia, leukocytosis, and high C-reactive protein values, was built in order to take data from 716 infected patients and 120 patients with noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict pretest probability of infection. Then, the best combination of procalcitonin, soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA, presepsin, soluble interleukin-2 receptor α, and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 was applied in order to categorize patients as "likely" or "unlikely" to be infected. The predictive algorithm required only procalcitonin backed up with soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA determined in 29% of the patients to rule out sepsis/septic shock with a negative predictive value of 93%. In a validation cohort of 158 patients, predictive algorithm reached 100% of negative predictive value requiring biomarker measurements in 18% of the population. We have developed and validated a high-performing, reproducible, and parsimonious algorithm to assist emergency department physicians in distinguishing sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin and Its Reactive-Glycan-Carrying Prostate-Specific Antigen as a Novel Diagnostic and Prognostic Marker of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Hagiwara, Kazuhisa; Tobisawa, Yuki; Kaya, Takatoshi; Kaneko, Tomonori; Hatakeyama, Shingo; Mori, Kazuyuki; Hashimoto, Yasuhiro; Koie, Takuya; Suda, Yoshihiko; Ohyama, Chikara; Yoneyama, Tohru

2017-01-01

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin (WFA) preferably binds to LacdiNAc glycans, and its reactivity is associated with tumor progression. The aim of this study to examine whether the serum LacdiNAc carrying prostate-specific antigen–glycosylation isomer (PSA-Gi) and WFA-reactivity of tumor tissue can be applied as a diagnostic and prognostic marker of prostate cancer (PCa). Between 2007 and 2016, serum PSA-Gi levels before prostate biopsy (Pbx) were measured in 184 biopsy-proven benign prostatic hyperplasia patients and 244 PCa patients using an automated lectin-antibody immunoassay. WFA-reactivity on tumor was analyzed in 260 radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. Diagnostic and prognostic performance of serum PSA-Gi was evaluated using area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC). Prognostic performance of WFA-reactivity on tumor was evaluated via Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and nomogram. The AUC of serum PSA-Gi detecting PCa and predicting Pbx Grade Group (GG) 3 and GG ≥ 3 after RP was much higher than those of conventional PSA. Multivariate analysis showed that WFA-reactivity on prostate tumor was an independent risk factor of PSA recurrence. The nomogram was a strong model for predicting PSA-free survival provability with a c-index ≥0.7. Serum PSA-Gi levels and WFA-reactivity on prostate tumor may be a novel diagnostic and pre- and post-operative prognostic biomarkers of PCa, respectively. PMID:28134773

Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin and Its Reactive-Glycan-Carrying Prostate-Specific Antigen as a Novel Diagnostic and Prognostic Marker of Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Kazuhisa; Tobisawa, Yuki; Kaya, Takatoshi; Kaneko, Tomonori; Hatakeyama, Shingo; Mori, Kazuyuki; Hashimoto, Yasuhiro; Koie, Takuya; Suda, Yoshihiko; Ohyama, Chikara; Yoneyama, Tohru

2017-01-26

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin (WFA) preferably binds to LacdiNAc glycans, and its reactivity is associated with tumor progression. The aim of this study to examine whether the serum LacdiNAc carrying prostate-specific antigen-glycosylation isomer (PSA-Gi) and WFA-reactivity of tumor tissue can be applied as a diagnostic and prognostic marker of prostate cancer (PCa). Between 2007 and 2016, serum PSA-Gi levels before prostate biopsy (Pbx) were measured in 184 biopsy-proven benign prostatic hyperplasia patients and 244 PCa patients using an automated lectin-antibody immunoassay. WFA-reactivity on tumor was analyzed in 260 radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. Diagnostic and prognostic performance of serum PSA-Gi was evaluated using area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC). Prognostic performance of WFA-reactivity on tumor was evaluated via Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and nomogram. The AUC of serum PSA-Gi detecting PCa and predicting Pbx Grade Group (GG) 3 and GG ≥ 3 after RP was much higher than those of conventional PSA. Multivariate analysis showed that WFA-reactivity on prostate tumor was an independent risk factor of PSA recurrence. The nomogram was a strong model for predicting PSA-free survival provability with a c -index ≥0.7. Serum PSA-Gi levels and WFA-reactivity on prostate tumor may be a novel diagnostic and pre- and post-operative prognostic biomarkers of PCa, respectively.

A diagnostic nomogram for delayed hemolytic transfusion reaction in sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Mekontso Dessap, Armand; Pirenne, France; Razazi, Keyvan; Moutereau, Stéphane; Abid, Shariq; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Maitre, Bernard; Michel, Marc; Galacteros, Frederic; Bartolucci, Pablo; Habibi, Anoosha

2016-12-01

Diagnosis of delayed hemolytic transfusion reactions (DHTR), one of the most dreaded complications of transfusion in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), is challenging and not straightforward. Current diagnostic approaches are complex and not consensual; they are based on assessment of hemoglobin (Hb) drop and enhanced hemolysis, features also seen during classical vaso-occlusive events. In this observational study, we tested the hypothesis that the rate of decline in HbA after an index transfusion is a surrogate marker for the destruction of transfused RBC, which could be used diagnostically. We examined 421 transfusion episodes (in 128 patients of a French referral center for SCD) for which an Hb electrophoresis was obtained within 1 week following an index transfusion and repeated within 2 months (before a subsequent scheduled transfusion or during an acute complication). Chart review found DHTR to be present in 26 cases (6.2%), absent in 389 cases (92.4%), and possible in six cases (1.4%). As expected, DHTR was associated with accelerated hemolysis (increased serum bilirubin and lactic dehydrogenase concentrations) and a decline in total Hb as compared to the early post-transfusion value. However, the decline in HbA concentration appeared more effective in segregating between patients without DHTR and others. We propose a diagnostic nomogram for DHTR based on Hb A as a biologic marker of the survival of transfused RBCs. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1181-1184, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level.

PubMed

Tomás, Inmaculada; Regueira-Iglesias, Alba; López, Maria; Arias-Bujanda, Nora; Novoa, Lourdes; Balsa-Castro, Carlos; Tomás, Maria

2017-01-01

Currently, there is little evidence available on the development of predictive models for the diagnosis or prognosis of chronic periodontitis based on the qPCR quantification of subgingival pathobionts. Our objectives were to: (1) analyze and internally validate pathobiont-based models that could be used to distinguish different periodontal conditions at site-specific level within the same patient with chronic periodontitis; (2) develop nomograms derived from predictive models. Subgingival plaque samples were obtained from control and periodontal sites (probing pocket depth and clinical attachment loss <4 mm and >4 mm, respectively) from 40 patients with moderate-severe generalized chronic periodontitis. The samples were analyzed by qPCR using TaqMan probes and specific primers to determine the concentrations of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans (Aa) , Fusobacterium nucleatum (Fn) , Parvimonas micra (Pm) , Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg) , Prevotella intermedia (Pi) , Tannerella forsythia (Tf) , and Treponema denticola (Td) . The pathobiont-based models were obtained using multivariate binary logistic regression. The best models were selected according to specified criteria. The discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and numerous classification measures were thus obtained. The nomograms were built based on the best predictive models. Eight bacterial cluster-based models showed an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.760 and a sensitivity and specificity ≥75.0%. The PiTfFn cluster showed an AUC of 0.773 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm and AaPm were incorporated in the TdPiTfFn cluster, we detected the two best predictive models with an AUC of 0.788 and 0.789, respectively (sensitivity and specificity = 77.5%). The TdPiTfAa cluster had an AUC of 0.785 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm was incorporated in this cluster, a new predictive model appeared with better AUC and specificity values (0.787 and 80.0%, respectively). Distinct clusters formed by species with different etiopathogenic role (belonging to different Socransky's complexes) had a good predictive accuracy for distinguishing a site with periodontal destruction in a periodontal patient. The predictive clusters with the lowest number of bacteria were PiTfFn and TdPiTfAa , while TdPiTfAaFnPm had the highest number. In all the developed nomograms, high concentrations of these clusters were associated with an increased probability of having a periodontal site in a patient with chronic periodontitis.

Quantification by qPCR of Pathobionts in Chronic Periodontitis: Development of Predictive Models of Disease Severity at Site-Specific Level

PubMed Central

Tomás, Inmaculada; Regueira-Iglesias, Alba; López, Maria; Arias-Bujanda, Nora; Novoa, Lourdes; Balsa-Castro, Carlos; Tomás, Maria

2017-01-01

Currently, there is little evidence available on the development of predictive models for the diagnosis or prognosis of chronic periodontitis based on the qPCR quantification of subgingival pathobionts. Our objectives were to: (1) analyze and internally validate pathobiont-based models that could be used to distinguish different periodontal conditions at site-specific level within the same patient with chronic periodontitis; (2) develop nomograms derived from predictive models. Subgingival plaque samples were obtained from control and periodontal sites (probing pocket depth and clinical attachment loss <4 mm and >4 mm, respectively) from 40 patients with moderate-severe generalized chronic periodontitis. The samples were analyzed by qPCR using TaqMan probes and specific primers to determine the concentrations of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), Fusobacterium nucleatum (Fn), Parvimonas micra (Pm), Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg), Prevotella intermedia (Pi), Tannerella forsythia (Tf), and Treponema denticola (Td). The pathobiont-based models were obtained using multivariate binary logistic regression. The best models were selected according to specified criteria. The discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and numerous classification measures were thus obtained. The nomograms were built based on the best predictive models. Eight bacterial cluster-based models showed an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.760 and a sensitivity and specificity ≥75.0%. The PiTfFn cluster showed an AUC of 0.773 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm and AaPm were incorporated in the TdPiTfFn cluster, we detected the two best predictive models with an AUC of 0.788 and 0.789, respectively (sensitivity and specificity = 77.5%). The TdPiTfAa cluster had an AUC of 0.785 (sensitivity and specificity = 75.0%). When Pm was incorporated in this cluster, a new predictive model appeared with better AUC and specificity values (0.787 and 80.0%, respectively). Distinct clusters formed by species with different etiopathogenic role (belonging to different Socransky’s complexes) had a good predictive accuracy for distinguishing a site with periodontal destruction in a periodontal patient. The predictive clusters with the lowest number of bacteria were PiTfFn and TdPiTfAa, while TdPiTfAaFnPm had the highest number. In all the developed nomograms, high concentrations of these clusters were associated with an increased probability of having a periodontal site in a patient with chronic periodontitis. PMID:28848499

Efficacy, Predictive Factors, and Prediction Nomograms for 68Ga-labeled Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen-ligand Positron-emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in Early Biochemical Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Rauscher, Isabel; Düwel, Charlotte; Haller, Bernhard; Rischpler, Christoph; Heck, Matthias M; Gschwend, Jürgen E; Schwaiger, Markus; Maurer, Tobias; Eiber, Matthias

2018-05-01

Recently, 68 Ga-labeled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-ligand positron-emission tomography (PET) imaging has been shown to improve detection rates in recurrent prostate cancer (PC). However, published studies include only small patient numbers at low prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. For this study, 272 consecutive patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy and PSA value between 0.2 and 1ng/ml were included. The 68 Ga-PSMA-ligand PET/computed tomography (CT) was evaluated, and detection rates were determined and correlated to various clinical variables using univariate and multivariable analyses. Subgroups of patients with very low (0.2-0.5ng/ml) and low (>0.5-1.0ng/ml) PSA values were analyzed. In total, lesions indicative of PC recurrence were detected in 55% (74/134) and 74% (102/138) with very low and low PSA values, respectively. Main sites of recurrence were pelvic or retroperitoneal lymph nodes metastases, followed by local recurrence and bone metastases with higher probability in the low versus very low PSA subgroup. Detection rates significantly increased with higher PSA values, primary pT≥3a, primary pN+ disease, grade group ≥4, previous radiation therapy, and concurrent androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in univariate analysis. In a multivariable logistic regression model, concurrent ADT and PSA values were identified as most relevant predictors of positive 68 Ga-PSMA-ligand PET/CT. Further, prediction nomograms were established, which may help in estimating pretest PSMA-ligand PET positivity in clinical practice. In our study, 68 Ga-labeled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-ligand positron-emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) detected recurrent disease after radical prostatectomy in 55% (74/134) and 74% (102/138) of patients with very low (0.2-0.5ng/ml) and low (>0.5-1.0ng/ml) prostate-specific antigen values, respectively. On the basis of these data, it seems reasonable to perform 68 Ga-PSMA-ligand PET/CT also in patients with early biochemical recurrence, as it can tailor further therapy decisions (eg, local vs systemic treatment). The established prediction nomograms can further assist urologists in discussions on the use of 68 Ga-PSMA-ligand PET/CT with their patients in specific clinical settings. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of LDEF micrometeoroid/debris data and damage to composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tennyson, R. C.; Manuelpillai, G.

1993-01-01

This report presented published LDEF micrometeoroid/debris impact data in a nomogram format useful for estimating the total number of hits that could be expected on a space structure as a function of time in orbit, angular location relative to ram, and exposed surface area. Correction factors accounting for different altitudes are given. These are normalized to the average LDEF altitude. Examples on how to use the nomograph are also included. In addition, impact data and damage areas observed on composite laminates (experiment AO 180) are discussed.

Linear Titration Curves of Acids and Bases.

PubMed

Joseph, N R

1959-05-29

The Henderson-Hasselbalch equation, by a simple transformation, becomes pH - pK = pA - pB, where pA and pB are the negative logarithms of acid and base concentrations. Sigmoid titration curves then reduce to straight lines; titration curves of polyelectrolytes, to families of straight lines. The method is applied to the titration of the dipeptide glycyl aminotricarballylic acid, with four titrable groups. Results are expressed as Cartesian and d'Ocagne nomograms. The latter is of a general form applicable to polyelectrolytes of any degree of complexity.

Prediction of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gerestein, C G; Nieuwenhuyzen-de Boer, G M; Eijkemans, M J; Kooi, G S; Burger, C W

2010-01-01

Treatment in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is based on primary cytoreductive surgery followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. Successful cytoreduction to minimal residual tumour burden is the most important determinant of prognosis. However, extensive surgical procedures to achieve maximal debulking are inevitably associated with postoperative morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study is to determine predictors of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC. All patients in the South Western part of the Netherlands who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC between January 2004 and December 2007 were identified from the Rotterdam Cancer Registry database. All peri- and postoperative complications within 30 days after surgery were registered and classified according to the definitions of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP). To investigate independent predictors of 30-day morbidity, a Cox proportional hazards model with backward stepwise elimination was utilised. The identified predictors were entered into a nomogram. Two hundred and ninety-three patients entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 136 (46%) patients. 30-day morbidity was seen in 99 (34%) patients. Postoperative morbidity could be predicted by age (P=0.007; odds ratio [OR] 1.034), WHO performance status (P=0.046; OR 1.757), extent of surgery (P=0.1308; OR=2.101), and operative time (P=0.017; OR 1.007) with an optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.68. 30-day morbidity could be predicted by age, WHO performance status, operative time and extent of surgery. The generated nomogram could be valuable for predicting operative risk in the individual patient.

Low Tumor Infiltrating Mast Cell Density Confers Prognostic Benefit and Reflects Immunoactivation in Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Mao, Yihao; Feng, Qingyang; Zheng, Peng; Yang, Liangliang; Zhu, Dexiang; Chang, Wenju; Ji, Meiling; He, Guodong; Xu, Jianmin

2018-06-06

The role of mast cells (MCs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) progression was controversial. Thus, this study was designed to evaluate the prognostic value of MCs as well as their correlation with immune microenvironment. A retrospective cohort of CRC patients of stage I-IV was enrolled in this study. 854 consecutive patients were divided into training set (427 patients) and validation set (427 patients) randomly. The findings were further validated in a GEO cohort, GSE39582 (556 patients). The mast cell density (MCD) was measured by immunohistochemical staining of tryptase or by CIBERSORT algorithm. Low MCD predicted prolonged overall survival (OS) in training and validation set. Moreover, MCD was identified as an independent prognostic indicator in both sets. Better stratification for CRC prognosis can be achieved by building a MCD based nomogram. The prognostic role of MCD was further validated in GSE39582. In addition, MCD predicted improved survival in stage II and III CRC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Multiple immune pathways were enriched in low MCD group while cytokines/chemokines promoting anti-tumor immunity were highly expressed in such group. Furthermore, MCD was negatively correlated with CD8+ T cells infiltration. In conclusion, MCD was identified as an independent prognostic factor, as well as a potential biomarker for ACT benefit in stage II and III CRC. Better stratification of CRC prognosis could be achieved by building a MCD based nomogram. Moreover, immunoactivation in low MCD tumors may contributed to improved prognosis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Standard curves of placental weight and fetal/placental weight ratio in Japanese population: difference according to the delivery mode, fetal sex, or maternal parity.

PubMed

Ogawa, Masaki; Matsuda, Yoshio; Nakai, Akihito; Hayashi, Masako; Sato, Shoji; Matsubara, Shigeki

2016-11-01

Placental weight (PW) and fetal/placental weight ratio (F/P) have been considered to be useful parameters for understanding the pathophysiology of fetal growth. However, there have been no standard data on PW and F/P in Asian populations. This study was conducted to establish nomograms of PW and F/P in the Japanese population and to clarify characteristics of PW and F/P in this population. Included in the study were 79,590 Japanese cases: 58,871 vaginal and 20,719 cesarean deliveries at obstetrical facilities (2001-2002) and registered to the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology Database. Multiple pregnancies, stillbirths, and fetal anomalies were excluded. Nomograms of PW and F/P were created by spline methods in groups categorized by fetal sex (male or female) and maternal parity (primipara or multipara). Standard curves of PW and F/P were established, which indicated that PW and F/P were lower in cesarean deliveries than vaginal deliveries, especially during preterm period. PW differed depending on fetal sex and maternal parity. F/P differed according to fetal sex. We for the first time established standard curves of PW and F/P in the Japanese population with statistically sufficient data, which showed that PW and F/P were lower in cesarean deliveries. PW and F/P were also affected by fetal sex. These data might be useful to understand the pathophysiology between the fetus and placenta in utero. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selecting Statistical Quality Control Procedures for Limiting the Impact of Increases in Analytical Random Error on Patient Safety.

PubMed

Yago, Martín

2017-05-01

QC planning based on risk management concepts can reduce the probability of harming patients due to an undetected out-of-control error condition. It does this by selecting appropriate QC procedures to decrease the number of erroneous results reported. The selection can be easily made by using published nomograms for simple QC rules when the out-of-control condition results in increased systematic error. However, increases in random error also occur frequently and are difficult to detect, which can result in erroneously reported patient results. A statistical model was used to construct charts for the 1 ks and X /χ 2 rules. The charts relate the increase in the number of unacceptable patient results reported due to an increase in random error with the capability of the measurement procedure. They thus allow for QC planning based on the risk of patient harm due to the reporting of erroneous results. 1 ks Rules are simple, all-around rules. Their ability to deal with increases in within-run imprecision is minimally affected by the possible presence of significant, stable, between-run imprecision. X /χ 2 rules perform better when the number of controls analyzed during each QC event is increased to improve QC performance. Using nomograms simplifies the selection of statistical QC procedures to limit the number of erroneous patient results reported due to an increase in analytical random error. The selection largely depends on the presence or absence of stable between-run imprecision. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Leveraging the power of pooled data for cancer outcomes research.

PubMed

Hugh-Yeun, Kiara; Cheung, Winson Y

2016-08-02

Clinical trials continue to be the gold standard for determining the efficacy of novel cancer treatments, but they may also expose participants to the potential risks of unpredictable or severe toxicities. The development of validated tools that better inform patients of the benefits and risks associated with clinical trial participation can facilitate the informed consent process. The design and validation of such instruments are strengthened when we leverage the power of pooled data analysis for cancer outcomes research. In a recent study published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology entitled "Determinants of early mortality among 37,568 patients with colon cancer who participated in 25 clinical trials from the adjuvant colon cancer endpoints database," using a large pooled analysis of over 30,000 study participants who were enrolled in clinical trials of adjuvant therapy for early-stage colon cancer, we developed and validated a nomogram depicting the predictors of early cancer mortality. This database of pooled individual-level data allowed for a comprehensive analysis of poor prognostic factors associated with early death; furthermore, it enabled the creation of a nomogram that was able to reliably capture and quantify the benefit-to-risk profile for patients who are considering clinical trial participation. This tool can facilitate treatment decision-making discussions. As China and other Asian countries continue to conduct oncology clinical trials, efforts to collate patient-level information from these studies into a large data repository should be strongly considered since pooled data can increase future capacity for cancer outcomes research, which, in turn, can enhance patient-physician discussions and optimize clinical care.

Feasibility of simultaneous measurement of bone formation and bone resorption markers to assess bone turnover rate in postmenopausal women: an EPOLOS study.

PubMed

Łukaszkiewicz, Jacek; Karczmarewicz, Elzbieta; Płudowski, Paweł; Jaworski, Maciej; Czerwiński, Edward; Lewiński, Andrzej; Marcinowska-Suchowierska, Ewa; Milewicz, Andrzej; Spaczyński, Marek; Lorenc, Roman S

2008-12-01

One of the most important risk factors for osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women is elevated bone turnover (EBT), occurring in 25-30% of this population. This study's aim was to find a correlation between bone resorption and bone formation markers to assess bone turnover rate and qualify an individual postmenopausal woman as a possible EBT subject. Three hundred twenty postmenopausal women (> or = one year after the last menstruation, < or = 70 years old) were enrolled at seven clinical sites in this cross-sectional observational study conducted within the EPOLOS. The group was a random sample of the population. The study was performed in a referral center involved in the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis. The exclusion criteria included pregnancy, cancer, fracture in the last year, and overweight (> 100 kg). Bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of the lumbar spine, total hip, trochanter, and femoral neck regions were performed. Bone resorption and formation rates were evaluated by serum levels of C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX) and osteocalcin (OC), respectively. Using logistic regression to correlate the concentrations of CTX and OC it was possible not only to distinguish the EBT subgroup, but also to construct a simple nomogram for easy classification of individual patients as possible EBT subjects. EBT patients showed generally decreased BMD values and increased bone formation and resorption rates. Evaluation of both CTX and OC levels enables a more proper indication for EBT. The proposed nomogram may assist in evaluating outcome from the two markers of bone turnover.

Systematic review of current prognostication systems for primary gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

PubMed

Khoo, Chun Yuet; Chai, Xun; Quek, Richard; Teo, Melissa C C; Goh, Brian K P

2018-04-01

The advent of tyrosine kinase inhibitors as adjuvant therapy has revolutionized the management of GIST and emphasized the need for accurate prognostication systems. Numerous prognostication systems have been proposed for GIST but at present it remains unknown which system is superior. The present systematic review aims to summarize current prognostication systems for primary treatment-naive GIST. A literature review of the Pubmed and Embase databases was performed to identify all published articles in English, from the 1st January 2002 to 28th Feb 2017, reporting on clinical prognostication systems of GIST. Twenty-three articles on GIST prognostication systems were included. These systems were classified as categorical systems, which stratify patients into risk groups, or continuous systems, which provide an individualized form of risk assessment. There were 16 categorical systems in total. There were 4 modifications of the National Institute of Health (NIH) system, 2 modifications of Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) criteria and 3 modifications of Joensuu (modified NIH) criteria. Of the 7 continuous systems, there were 3 prognostic nomograms, 3 mathematical models and 1 prognostic heat/contour maps. Tumor size, location and mitotic count remain the main variables used in these systems. Numerous prognostication systems have been proposed for the risk stratification of GISTs. The most widely used systems today are the NIH, Joensuu modified NIH, AFIP and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram. More validation and comparison studies are required to determine the optimal prognostication system for GIST. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Using the ovarian sensitivity index to define poor, normal, and high response after controlled ovarian hyperstimulation in the long gonadotropin-releasing hormone-agonist protocol: suggestions for a new principle to solve an old problem.

PubMed

Huber, Malin; Hadziosmanovic, Nermin; Berglund, Lars; Holte, Jan

2013-11-01

To explore the utility of using the ratio between oocyte yield and total dose of FSH, i.e., the ovarian sensitivity index (OSI), to define ovarian response patterns. Retrospective cross-sectional study. University-affiliated private center. The entire unselected cohort of 7,520 IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatments (oocyte pick-ups [OPUs]) during an 8-year period (long GnRH agonist-recombinant FSH protocol). None. The distribution of the OSI (oocytes recovered × 1,000/total dose of FSH), the cutoff levels for poor and high response, set at ±1 SD, and the relationship between OSI and treatment outcome. OSI showed a log-normal distribution with cutoff levels for poor and high response at 1.697/IU and 10.07/IU, respectively. A nomogram is presented. Live-birth rates per OPU were 10.5 ± 0.1%, 26.9 ± 0.6%, and 36.0 ± 1.4% for poor, normal, and high response treatments, respectively. The predictive power (C-statistic) for OSI to predict live birth was superior to that of oocyte yield. The OSI improves the definition of ovarian response patterns because it takes into account the degree of stimulation. The nomogram presents evidence-based cutoff levels for poor, normal, and high response and could be used for unifying study designs involving ovarian response patterns. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Diagnostic importance of the alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient].

PubMed

Weinans, Marije A E; Drost-de Klerck, Amanda M; ter Maaten, Jan C

2012-01-01

The alveolar-arterial (A-a) oxygen gradient is the difference between the partial pressure of oxygen in the alveoli and the partial pressure of arterial oxygen and can be elevated in the case of pulmonary disease. We describe a 41-year-old patient with pneumonia who presented with abdominal pain, in whom calculation of the A-a gradient could have led to earlier diagnosis. The A-a oxygen gradient is mainly of diagnostic importance and the presented nomogram allows easy and quick interpretation. This might lead to a more frequent use of the A-a oxygen gradient in the future.

Investigations Regarding Anesthesia during Hypovolemic Conditions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-25

i / b ,- 18 For each level of hemoglobin, the equation was "normalized" to a pH of 7.400 for a BE of zero and a PCO of 40.0 torr, Orr et al. (171...the shifted BE values. Curve nomogram. Using the equations resulting from the above curve- fitting procedure, we calculated the relationship between pH...model for a given BE (i.e., pH = m i log PCO 2 + bi). Solve the following set of equations for pHind and log dX - 0 d(PHind) where X = (pHl - pHind) 2

Population Pharmacokinetics of Vancomycin in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Okada, Akira; Kariya, Misato; Irie, Kei; Okada, Yutaka; Hiramoto, Nobuhiro; Hashimoto, Hisako; Kajioka, Ryosuke; Maruyama, Chika; Kasai, Hidefumi; Hamori, Mami; Nishimura, Asako; Shibata, Nobuhito; Fukushima, Keizo; Sugioka, Nobuyuki

2018-05-15

Vancomycin is a commonly used antimicrobial agent for patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Vancomycin has large inter- and intraindividual pharmacokinetic variability, which is mainly described by renal function; various studies have indicated that vancomycin pharmacokinetics are altered in special populations. However, little is known regarding vancomycin pharmacokinetics in patients undergoing allo-HSCT. Therefore, we aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model of vancomycin in patients undergoing allo-HSCT for effective and safe antimicrobial therapy and to develop a vancomycin dosing nomogram for a vancomycin optimal-dosing strategy. In total, 285 observations from 95 patients undergoing allo-HSCT were available. The final PopPK parameter estimates were central volume of distribution (V1, L), 39.2; clearance (L/h), 4.25; peripheral volume of distribution (V2, L), 56.1; and intercompartmental clearance (L/h), 1.95. The developed vancomycin model revealed an increase in V1 and V2 compared with those in the general population that consisted of patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Moreover, serum creatinine was reduced because of an increase in the plasma fraction because of destruction of hematopoietic stem cells accompanying allo-HSCT pretreatment, suggesting that the Cockcroft-Gault equation-based creatinine clearance value was overestimated. To our knowledge, this is the first PopPK study to develop a dosing nomogram for vancomycin in patients undergoing allo-HSCT and was proven to be useful in optimizing the dosage and dosing interval of vancomycin in these patients. This strategy will provide more useful information for vancomycin therapy with an evidence-based dose adjustment. © 2018, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Active patient decision making regarding nerve sparing during radical prostatectomy: a novel approach.

PubMed

Lavery, Hugh J; Prall, David N; Abaza, Ronney

2011-08-01

The motivation to preserve sexual function can vary widely among patients before prostatectomy. Increasing patient involvement may allow a more personalized experience and may improve satisfaction. We assessed a strategy of surgeon deference to patient choice in regard to nerve sparing to determine to what degree patients are rational actors and capable of active decision making. A total of 150 patients treated with prostatectomy participated in a standardized preoperative discussion regarding the concept of nerve sparing, extracapsular extension and the potential need for adjuvant radiation in the event of local recurrence. Each patient was given his nomogram predicted risk of extracapsular extension and then elected nerve sparing or nonnerve sparing. The corresponding procedure was performed unless grossly invasive disease was encountered. Of the 150 patients 109 chose nerve sparing (73%) and 41 chose nonnerve sparing (27%). In patients with a nomogram predicted risk of extracapsular extension less than 20%, 20% to 50% and greater than 50%, nerve sparing was elected by 88%, 41% and 25%, respectively. Patients with lower risks of extracapsular extension electing nonnerve sparing were older and had higher rates of erectile dysfunction. Empowering patients to decide on their nerve sparing status is a reasonable strategy that did not lead to a high rate of patients with a high risk of extracapsular extension electing nerve sparing. With proper counseling informed patients made reasonable decisions, and appeared to be conservative, prioritizing cancer control in the majority of instances where extracapsular extension risk was high. In addition, they may have been overly conservative in electing nonnerve sparing when the risk was low. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Refined nomogram incorporating standing cough test improves prediction of male transobturator sling success.

PubMed

Shakir, Nabeel A; Fuchs, Joceline S; McKibben, Maxim J; Viers, Boyd R; Pagliara, Travis J; Scott, Jeremy M; Morey, Allen F

2018-05-01

To develop a decision aid in predicting sling success, incorporating the Male Stress Incontinence Grading Scale (MSIGS) into existing treatment algorithms. We reviewed men undergoing first-time transobturator sling for stress urinary incontinence (SUI) from 2007 to 2016 at our institution. Patient demographics, reported pads per day (PPD), and Standing Cough Test (SCT) results graded 0-4, according to MSIGS, were assessed. Treatment failure was defined as subsequent need for >1 PPD or further procedures. Parameters associated with failure were included in multivariable logistic models, compared by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. A nomogram was generated from the model with greatest AUC and internally validated. Overall 203 men (median age 67 years, IQR 63-72) were evaluated with median follow-up of 45 months (IQR 11-75 months). A total of 185 men (91%) were status-post radical prostatectomy and 29 (14%) had pelvic radiation history. Median PPD and SCT grade were both two. Eighty men (39%) failed treatment (use of ≥1 PPD or subsequent anti-incontinence procedures) at a median of 9 months. History of radiation (P = 0.03), increasing MSIGS (P < 0.0001) and increasing preoperative PPD (P < 0.0001) were associated with failure on univariate analysis. In a multivariable model with AUC 0.81, MSIGS, and PPD remained associated (P = 0.002 and <0.0001 respectively, and radiation history P = 0.06), and was superior to models incorporating PPD and radiation alone (AUC 0.77, P = 0.02), PPD alone (AUC 0.76, P = 0.02), and a cutpoint of >2 PPD alone (AUC 0.71, P = 0.0001). MSIGS adds prognostic value to PPD in assessing success of transobturator sling for treatment of SUI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Guiding flying-spot laser transepithelial phototherapeutic keratectomy with optical coherence tomography

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Yokogawa, Hideaki; Tang, Maolong; Chamberlain, Winston; Zhang, Xinbo; Huang, David

2017-01-01

PURPOSE To analyze transepithelial phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK) results using optical coherence tomography (OCT) and develop a model to guide the laser dioptric and depth settings. SETTING Casey Eye Institute, Portland, Oregon, USA. DESIGN Prospective nonrandomized case series. METHODS Patients with superficial corneal opacities and irregularities had transepithelial PTK with a flying-spot excimer laser by combining wide-zone myopic and hyperopic astigmatic ablations. Optical coherence tomography was used to calculate corneal epithelial lenticular masking effects, guide refractive laser settings, and measure opacity removal. The laser ablation efficiency and the refractive outcome were investigated using multivariate linear regression models. RESULTS Twenty-six eyes of 20 patients received PTK to remove opacities and irregular astigmatism due to scar, dystrophy, radial keratotomy, or previous corneal surgeries. The uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) were significantly improved (P < .01) by 3.7 Snellen lines and 2.0 Snellen lines, respectively, to a mean of 20/41.2 and 20/22.0, respectively. Achieved laser ablation depths were 31.3% (myopic ablation) and 63.0% (hyperopic ablation) deeper than the manufacturer’s nomogram. The spherical equivalent of the corneal epithelial lenticular masking effect was 0.73 diopter ± 0.61 (SD). The refractive outcome highly correlated to the laser settings and epithelial lenticular masking effect (Pearson R = 0.96, P < .01). The ablation rate of granular dystrophy opacities appeared to be slower. Smoothing ablation under masking fluid was needed to prevent focal steep islands in these cases. CONCLUSIONS The OCT-measured ablation depth efficiency could guide opacity removal. The corneal epithelial lenticular masking effect could refine the spherical refractive nomogram to achieve a better refractive outcome after transepithelial ablation. PMID:28532939

Guiding flying-spot laser transepithelial phototherapeutic keratectomy with optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Yokogawa, Hideaki; Tang, Maolong; Chamberlain, Winston; Zhang, Xinbo; Huang, David

2017-04-01

To analyze transepithelial phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK) results using optical coherence tomography (OCT) and develop a model to guide the laser dioptric and depth settings. Casey Eye Institute, Portland, Oregon, USA. Prospective nonrandomized case series. Patients with superficial corneal opacities and irregularities had transepithelial PTK with a flying-spot excimer laser by combining wide-zone myopic and hyperopic astigmatic ablations. Optical coherence tomography was used to calculate corneal epithelial lenticular masking effects, guide refractive laser settings, and measure opacity removal. The laser ablation efficiency and the refractive outcome were investigated using multivariate linear regression models. Twenty-six eyes of 20 patients received PTK to remove opacities and irregular astigmatism due to scar, dystrophy, radial keratotomy, or previous corneal surgeries. The uncorrected distance visual acuity and corrected distance visual acuity were significantly improved (P < .01) by 3.7 Snellen lines and 2.0 Snellen lines, respectively, to a mean of 20/41.2 and 20/22.0, respectively. Achieved laser ablation depths were 31.3% (myopic ablation) and 63.0% (hyperopic ablation) deeper than the manufacturer's nomogram. The spherical equivalent of the corneal epithelial lenticular masking effect was 0.73 diopter ± 0.61 (SD). The refractive outcome highly correlated to the laser settings and epithelial lenticular masking effect (Pearson R = 0.96, P < .01). The ablation rate of granular dystrophy opacities appeared to be slower. Smoothing ablation under masking fluid was needed to prevent focal steep islands in these cases. The OCT-measured ablation depth efficiency could guide opacity removal. The corneal epithelial lenticular masking effect could refine the spherical refractive nomogram to achieve a better refractive outcome after transepithelial ablation. Copyright © 2017 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oberije, Cary, E-mail: cary.oberije@maastro.nl; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven, KU Leuven

Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing andmore » validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.« less

A model and nomogram to predict tumor site origin for squamous cell cancer confined to cervical lymph nodes.

PubMed

Ali, Arif N; Switchenko, Jeffrey M; Kim, Sungjin; Kowalski, Jeanne; El-Deiry, Mark W; Beitler, Jonathan J

2014-11-15

The current study was conducted to develop a multifactorial statistical model to predict the specific head and neck (H&N) tumor site origin in cases of squamous cell carcinoma confined to the cervical lymph nodes ("unknown primaries"). The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was analyzed for patients with an H&N tumor site who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2011. The SEER patients were identified according to their H&N primary tumor site and clinically positive cervical lymph node levels at the time of presentation. The SEER patient data set was randomly divided into 2 data sets for the purposes of internal split-sample validation. The effects of cervical lymph node levels, age, race, and sex on H&N primary tumor site were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression models and an associated set of nomograms were developed based on relevant factors to provide probabilities of tumor site origin. Analysis of the SEER database identified 20,011 patients with H&N disease with both site-level and lymph node-level data. Sex, race, age, and lymph node levels were associated with primary H&N tumor site (nasopharynx, hypopharynx, oropharynx, and larynx) in the multivariate models. Internal validation techniques affirmed the accuracy of these models on separate data. The incorporation of epidemiologic and lymph node data into a predictive model has the potential to provide valuable guidance to clinicians in the treatment of patients with squamous cell carcinoma confined to the cervical lymph nodes. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Is there still a role for computed tomography and bone scintigraphy in prostate cancer staging? An analysis from the EUREKA-1 database.

PubMed

Gabriele, D; Collura, D; Oderda, M; Stura, I; Fiorito, C; Porpiglia, F; Terrone, C; Zacchero, M; Guiot, C; Gabriele, P

2016-04-01

According to the current guidelines, computed tomography (CT) and bone scintigraphy (BS) are optional in intermediate-risk and recommended in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa). We wonder whether it is time for these examinations to be dismissed, evaluating their staging accuracy in a large cohort of radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. To evaluate the ability of CT to predict lymph node involvement (LNI), we included 1091 patients treated with RP and pelvic lymph node dissection, previously staged with abdomino-pelvic CT. As for bone metastases, we included 1145 PCa patients deemed fit for surgery, previously staged with Tc-99m methylene diphosphonate planar BS. CT scan showed a sensitivity and specificity in predicting LNI of 8.8 and 98 %; subgroup analysis disclosed a significant association only for the high-risk subgroup of 334 patients (P 0.009) with a sensitivity of 11.8 % and positive predictive value (PPV) of 44.4 %. However, logistic multivariate regression analysis including preoperative risk factors excluded any additional predictive ability of CT even in the high-risk group (P 0.40). These data are confirmed by ROC curve analysis, showing a low AUC of 54 % for CT, compared with 69 % for Partin tables and 80 % for Briganti nomogram. BS showed some positivity in 74 cases, only four of whom progressed, while 49 patients with negative BS progressed during their follow-up, six of them immediately after surgery. According to our opinion, the role of CT and BS should be restricted to selected high-risk patients, while clinical predictive nomograms should be adopted for the surgical planning.

The prediction of progression-free and overall survival in women with an advanced stage of epithelial ovarian carcinoma.

PubMed

Gerestein, C G; Eijkemans, M J C; de Jong, D; van der Burg, M E L; Dykgraaf, R H M; Kooi, G S; Baalbergen, A; Burger, C W; Ansink, A C

2009-02-01

Prognosis in women with ovarian cancer mainly depends on International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and the ability to perform optimal cytoreductive surgery. Since ovarian cancer has a heterogeneous presentation and clinical course, predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the individual patient is difficult. The objective of this study was to determine predictors of PFS and OS in women with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) after primary cytoreductive surgery and first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. Retrospective observational study. Two teaching hospitals and one university hospital in the south-western part of the Netherlands. Women with advanced stage EOC. All women who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC followed by first-line platinum-based chemotherapy between January 1998 and October 2004 were identified. To investigate independent predictors of PFS and OS, a Cox' proportional hazard model was used. Nomograms were generated with the identified predictive parameters. The primary outcome measure was OS and the secondary outcome measures were response and PFS. A total of 118 women entered the study protocol. Median PFS and OS were 15 and 44 months, respectively. Preoperative platelet count (P = 0.007), and residual disease <1 cm (P = 0.004) predicted PFS with a optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.63. Predictive parameters for OS were preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration (P = 0.012), preoperative platelet counts (P = 0.031) and residual disease <1 cm (P = 0.028) with a optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.67. PFS could be predicted by postoperative residual disease and preoperative platelet counts, whereas residual disease, preoperative platelet counts and preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration were predictive for OS. The proposed nomograms need to be externally validated.

Semi-quantitative analysis of salivary gland scintigraphy in Sjögren's syndrome diagnosis: a first-line tool.

PubMed

Angusti, Tiziana; Pilati, Emanuela; Parente, Antonella; Carignola, Renato; Manfredi, Matteo; Cauda, Simona; Pizzigati, Elena; Dubreuil, Julien; Giammarile, Francesco; Podio, Valerio; Skanjeti, Andrea

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was the assessment of semi-quantified salivary gland dynamic scintigraphy (SGdS) parameters independently and in an integrated way in order to predict primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). Forty-six consecutive patients (41 females; age 61 ± 11 years) with sicca syndrome were studied by SGdS after injection of 200 MBq of pertechnetate. In sixteen patients, pSS was diagnosed, according to American-European Consensus Group criteria (AECGc). Semi-quantitative parameters (uptake (UP) and excretion fraction (EF)) were obtained for each gland. ROC curves were used to determine the best cut-off value. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to estimate the accuracy of each semi-quantitative analysis. To assess the correlation between scintigraphic results and disease severity, semi-quantitative parameters were plotted versus Sjögren's syndrome disease activity index (ESSDAI). A nomogram was built to perform an integrated evaluation of all the scintigraphic semi-quantitative data. Both UP and EF of salivary glands were significantly lower in pSS patients compared to those in non-pSS (p < 0.001). ROC curve showed significantly large AUC for both the parameters (p < 0.05). Parotid UP and submandibular EF, assessed by univariated and multivariate logistic regression, showed a significant and independent correlation with pSS diagnosis (p value <0.05). No correlation was found between SGdS semi-quantitative parameters and ESSDAI. The proposed nomogram accuracy was 87%. SGdS is an accurate and reproducible tool for the diagnosis of pSS. ESSDAI was not shown to be correlated with SGdS data. SGdS should be the first-line imaging technique in patients with suspected pSS.

Validation of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine guidelines/recommendations in white European men presenting for couple's infertility.

PubMed

Ventimiglia, Eugenio; Capogrosso, Paolo; Boeri, Luca; Ippolito, Silvia; Scano, Roberta; Moschini, Marco; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Papaleo, Enrico; Montorsi, Francesco; Salonia, Andrea

2016-10-01

To retrospectively validate the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) guidelines/recommendations concerning endocrine evaluation in a cohort of white European men presenting for couple's infertility. Retrospective study. Academic reproductive medicine outpatient clinic. Cohort of 1,056 consecutive infertile men (noninterracial infertile couples). Testicular volume was assessed with a Prader orchidometer. Serum hormones were measured (8-10 a.m.) in all cases. Hypogonadism was defined as total T < 3 ng/mL, according to the Endocrine Society definition. Semen analysis values were assessed based on the 2010 World Health Organisation reference criteria. ASRM indications for endocrine assessment in infertile men (sperm concentration <10 million/mL, impaired sexual function, and other clinical findings suggesting a specific endocrinopathy) were used to predict hypogonadism in our cohort. Moreover, a clinically user-friendly three-item nomogram was developed to predict hypogonadism and was compared to the ASRM guidelines assessment. Biochemical hypogonadism was diagnosed in 156 (14.8%) men. Overall, 669 (63.4%) patients would have necessitated total T assessment according to the ASRM criteria; of these, only 119 (17.8%) were actually hypogonadal according to the Endocrine Society classification criteria. Conversely, 37 (23.7%) out of 156 patients with biochemical hypogonadism would have been overlooked. The overall predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the ASRM guidelines was 58%, 76%, and 39%, respectively. Our nomogram was not reliable enough to predict hypogonadism, despite demonstrating a significantly higher predictive accuracy (68%) than the ASRM guidelines. The current findings show that the ASRM guidelines/recommendations for male infertility workup may not be suitable for application in white European infertile men. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevated postvoid residual urine volume predicting recurrence of urinary tract infections in toilet-trained children.

PubMed

Chang, Shang-Jen; Tsai, Li-Ping; Hsu, Chun-Kai; Yang, Stephen S

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to examine whether toilet-trained children with a history of febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI) and elevated postvoid residual (PVR) urine volume according to a recently published PVR nomogram were at greater risk of UTI recurrence. One month after recovery from febrile UTI, constipation was diagnosed according to the Rome III criteria, and lower urinary tract (LUT) function was evaluated with two sets of uroflowmetry and PVR by ultrasonography. For children aged ≦ 6 and ≧ 7 years, elevated PVR is defined as >20 and >10 ml, respectively. Cox proportion hazards regression was used to evaluate the risk factors for recurrence of UTI. Between 2005 and 2011, 60 children aged 6.5 ± 2.5 years (boy:girl ratio 27:33) were enrolled for analysis. Univariate analysis showed that recurrent febrile UTI was more commonly observed in children with elevated PVR [repetitive elevated PVR: hazard ratio (HR) 5.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-23.4; one elevated PVR: HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.01-20.2] and high-grade vesicoureteral reflux (VUR; HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.46-14.07). Multivariate analysis showed that younger age (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.82, p < 0.01) and elevated PVR (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.44-5.73, p = 0.01) were significant, independent risk factors for recurrent febrile UTI--but not gender, presence of high-grade VUR and constipation. Elevated PVR defined by the new PVR nomogram predicted recurrent UTI in children with history of febrile UTI. Care should be taken to manage children with elevated PVR.

Role of percent peripheral tissue ablated on refractive outcomes following hyperopic LASIK

PubMed Central

Stapleton, Fiona; Versace, Patrick

2017-01-01

Objectives To determine the effect of hyperopic laser in situ keratomileusis (H-LASIK) on corneal integrity, by investigating relationships between proportionate corneal tissue ablated and refractive outcomes at 3 months. Methods 18 eyes of 18 subjects treated with H-LASIK by Technolas 217c Excimer Laser were included in the study. Orbscan II Topography System was used to determine corneal volume and pachymetry 3mm temporally (3T). The volume of corneal tissue ablated was determined from the laser nomogram. Univariate associations between age, treatment, corneal volume, overall proportion of tissue removed, proportion of tissue removed at 3T, residual bed thickness at 3T and refractive outcomes 3 months post-LASIK were examined and independent factors associated with refractive outcomes determined using linear regression models. Results At 3 months post-LASIK, the mean difference to expected refractive outcome was -0.20 ± 0.64 (Range -2.00 to +1.00). In univariate analysis, difference to expected refractive outcome was associated with proportion of tissue removed at 3T (P<0.01, r = -0.605) and total number of pulses (P< 0.05, r = -0.574). In multivariable analysis, difference to expected refractive outcome was associated with the proportion of tissue removed at 3T only. Conclusion Subjects undergoing H-LASIK, may present as either over or under-corrected at 3 months. The proportion of tissue removed at 3T was the single significant determinant of this outcome, suggesting unexpected biomechanical alterations resulting in corneal steepening. Future hyperopic LASIK procedures could consider proportionate volume of corneal tissue removed at 3T in addition to laser nomograms to achieve improved refractive outcomes. PMID:28151939

Evaluation of CROES Nephrolithometry Nomogram as a Preoperative Predictive System for Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy Outcomes.

PubMed

Kumar, Sumit; Sreenivas, Jayaram; Karthikeyan, Vilvapathy Senguttuvan; Mallya, Ashwin; Keshavamurthy, Ramaiah

2016-10-01

Scoring systems have been devised to predict outcomes of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). CROES nephrolithometry nomogram (CNN) is the latest tool devised to predict stone-free rate (SFR). We aim to compare predictive accuracy of CNN against Guy stone score (GSS) for SFR and postoperative outcomes. Between January 2013 and December 2015, 313 patients undergoing PCNL were analyzed for predictive accuracy of GSS, CNN, and stone burden (SB) for SFR, complications, operation time (OT), and length of hospitalization (LOH). We further stratified patients into risk groups based on CNN and GSS. Mean ± standard deviation (SD) SB was 298.8 ± 235.75 mm 2 . SB, GSS, and CNN (area under curve [AUC]: 0.662, 0.660, 0.673) were found to be predictors of SFR. However, predictability for complications was not as good (AUC: SB 0.583, GSS 0.554, CNN 0.580). Single implicated calix (Adj. OR 3.644; p = 0.027), absence of staghorn calculus (Adj. OR 3.091; p = 0.044), single stone (Adj. OR 3.855; p = 0.002), and single puncture (Adj. OR 2.309; p = 0.048) significantly predicted SFR on multivariate analysis. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI; p = 0.020) and staghorn calculus (p = 0.002) were independent predictors for complications on linear regression. SB and GSS independently predicted OT on multivariate analysis. SB and complications significantly predicted LOH, while GSS and CNN did not predict LOH. CNN offered better risk stratification for residual stones than GSS. CNN and GSS have good preoperative predictive accuracy for SFR. Number of implicated calices may affect SFR, and CCI affects complications. Studies should incorporate these factors in scoring systems and assess if predictability of PCNL outcomes improves.

Decision-making tools in prostate cancer: from risk grouping to nomograms.

PubMed

Fontanella, Paolo; Benecchi, Luigi; Grasso, Angelica; Patel, Vipul; Albala, David; Abbou, Claude; Porpiglia, Francesco; Sandri, Marco; Rocco, Bernardo; Bianchi, Giampaolo

2017-12-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common solid neoplasm and the second leading cause of cancer death in men. After the Partin tables were developed, a number of predictive and prognostic tools became available for risk stratification. These tools have allowed the urologist to better characterize this disease and lead to more confident treatment decisions for patients. The purpose of this study is to critically review the decision-making tools currently available to the urologist, from the moment when PCa is first diagnosed until patients experience metastatic progression and death. A systematic and critical analysis through Medline, EMBASE, Scopus and Web of Science databases was carried out in February 2016 as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. The search was conducted using the following key words: "prostate cancer," "prediction tools," "nomograms." Seventy-two studies were identified in the literature search. We summarized the results into six sections: Tools for prediction of life expectancy (before treatment), Tools for prediction of pathological stage (before treatment), Tools for prediction of survival and cancer-specific mortality (before/after treatment), Tools for prediction of biochemical recurrence (before/after treatment), Tools for prediction of metastatic progression (after treatment) and in the last section biomarkers and genomics. The management of PCa patients requires a tailored approach to deliver a truly personalized treatment. The currently available tools are of great help in helping the urologist in the decision-making process. These tests perform very well in high-grade and low-grade disease, while for intermediate-grade disease further research is needed. Newly discovered markers, genomic tests, and advances in imaging acquisition through mpMRI will help in instilling confidence that the appropriate treatments are being offered to patients with prostate cancer.

Comparison of the Walz Nomogram and Presence of Secondary Circulating Prostate Cells for Predicting Early Biochemical Failure after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer in Chilean Men.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of secondary circulating prostate cells for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomagram. A single centre, prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy between 2004 and 2014 was conducted, with registration of clinical-pathological details, total serum PSA pre-surgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Secondary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and assessed using standard immunocytochemistry with anti-PSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values werecalculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 326 men participated, with a median follow up of 5 years; 64 had biochemical failure within two years. Extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, pathological stage, Gleason score ≥ 8, infiltration of seminal vesicles and lymph nodes were all associated with higher risk of biochemical failure. The discriminative value for the nomogram and circulating prostate cells was high (AUC >0.80), predictive values were higher for circulating prostate cell detection, with a negative predictive value of 99%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 75%. The nomagram had good predictive power to identify men with a high risk of biochemical failure within two years. The presence of circulating prostate cells had the same predictive power, with a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The presence of secondary circulating prostate cells identifies a group of men with a high risk of early biochemical failure. Those negative for secondary CPCs have a very low risk of early biochemical failure.

Distribution, genetic and cardiovascular determinants of FVIII:c - Data from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study.

PubMed

Hermanns, M Iris; Grossmann, Vera; Spronk, Henri M H; Schulz, Andreas; Jünger, Claus; Laubert-Reh, Dagmar; Mazur, Johanna; Gori, Tommaso; Zeller, Tanja; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Beutel, Manfred; Blankenberg, Stefan; Münzel, Thomas; Lackner, Karl J; Ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Ten Cate, Hugo; Wild, Philipp S

2015-01-01

Elevated levels of c are associated with risk for both venous and arterial thromboembolism. However, no population-based study on the sex-specific distribution and reference ranges of plasma c and its cardiovascular determinants is available. c was analyzed in a randomly selected sample of 2533 males and 2440 females from the Gutenberg Health Study in Germany. Multivariable regression analyses for c were performed under adjustment for genetic determinants, cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease. Females (126.6% (95% CI: 125.2/128)) showed higher c levels than males (121.2% (119.8/122.7)). c levels increased with age in both sexes (ß per decade: 5.67% (4.22/7.13) male, 6.15% (4.72/7.57) female; p<0.001). Sex-specific reference limits and categories indicating the grade of deviation from the reference were calculated, and nomograms for c were created. c was approximately 25% higher in individuals with non-O blood type. Adjusted for sex and age, ABO-blood group accounted for 18.3% of c variation. In multivariable analysis, c was notably positively associated with diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia and negatively with current smoking. In a fully adjusted multivariable model, the strongest associations observed were of elevated c with diabetes and peripheral artery disease in both sexes and with obesity in males. Effects of SNPs in the vWF, STAB2 and SCARA5 gene were stronger in females than in males. The use of nomograms for valuation of c might be useful to identify high-risk cohorts for thromboembolism. Additionally, the prospective evaluation of c as a risk predictor becomes feasible. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Association of ATM and BMI-1 genetic variation with breast cancer risk in Han Chinese.

PubMed

Yue, Li-Ling; Wang, Fu-Chao; Zhang, Ming-Long; Liu, Dan; Chen, Ping; Mei, Qing-Bu; Li, Peng-Hui; Pan, Hong-Ming; Zheng, Li-Hong

2018-04-24

We tested the hypothesis that genetic variation in ATM and BMI-1 genes can alter the risk of breast cancer through genotyping 6 variants among 524 breast cancer cases and 518 cancer-free controls of Han nationality. This was an observational, hospital-based, case-control association study. Analyses of single variant, linkage, haplotype, interaction and nomogram were performed. Risk was expressed as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). All studied variants were in the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and were not linked. The mutant allele frequencies of rs1890637, rs3092856 and rs1801516 in ATM gene were significantly higher in cases than in controls (P = .005, <.001 and .001, respectively). Two variants, rs1042059 and rs201024480, in BMI-1 gene were low penetrant, with no detectable significance. After adjustment, rs189037 and rs1801516 were significantly associated with breast cancer under the additive model (OR: 1.37 and 1.52, 95% CI: 1.10-1.71 and 1.14-2.04, P: .005 and .005, respectively). In haplotype analysis, haplotypes A-C-G-G (in order of rs189037, rs3092856, rs1801516 and rs373759) and A-C-A-A in ATM gene were significantly associated with 1.98-fold and 6.04-fold increased risk of breast cancer (95% CI: 1.36-2.90 and 1.65-22.08, respectively). Nomogram analysis estimated that the cumulative proportion of 3 significant variants in ATM gene was about 12.5%. Our findings collectively indicated that ATM gene was a candidate gene in susceptibility to breast cancer in Han Chinese. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine.

Socioeconomic factors and survival in patients with non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Xu, Cheng; Chen, Yu-Pei; Liu, Xu; Tang, Ling-Long; Chen, Lei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Wen-Fei; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

2017-06-01

The effect of socioeconomic factors on receipt of definitive treatment and survival outcomes in non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains unclear. Eligible patients (n = 37 995) were identified from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2007 and 2012. Socioeconomic factors (i.e., median household income, education level, unemployment rate, insurance status, marital status and residence) were included in univariate/multivariate Cox regression analysis; validated factors were used to generate nomograms for cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS), and a prognostic score model for risk stratification. Low- and high-risk groups were compared for all cancer subsites. Impact of race/ethnicity on survival was investigated in each risk group. Marital status, median household income and insurance status were included in the nomograms for CSS and OS, which had higher c-indexes than the 6th edition TNM staging system (all P < 0.001). Based on three disadvantageous socioeconomic factors (i.e., unmarried status, uninsured status, median household income

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

PubMed Central

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Borgwardt, Stefan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas H; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

2015-01-01

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR−). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR− subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan’s nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR−: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan’s nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide. PMID:26407788

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, A

Purpose: Accuboost treatment planning uses dwell times from a nomogram designed with Monte Carlo calculations for round and D-shaped applicators. A quick dose calculation method has been developed for verification of the HDR Brachytherapy dose as a second check. Methods: Accuboost breast treatment uses several round and D-shaped applicators to be used non-invasively with an Ir-192 source from a HDR Brachytherapy afterloader after the breast is compressed in a mammographic unit for localization. The breast thickness, source activity, the prescription dose and the applicator size are entered into a nomogram spreadsheet which gives the dwell times to be manually enteredmore » into the delivery computer. Approximating the HDR Ir-192 as a point source, and knowing the geometry of the round and D-applicators, the distances from the source positions to the midpoint of the central plane are calculated. Using the exposure constant of Ir-192 and medium as human tissue, the dose at a point is calculated as: D(cGy) = 1.254 × A × t/R2, where A is the activity in Ci, t is the dwell time in sec and R is the distance in cm. The dose from each dwell position is added to get the total dose. Results: Each fraction is delivered in two compressions: cranio-caudally and medial-laterally. A typical APBI treatment in 10 fractions requires 20 compressions. For a patient treated with D45 applicators and an average of 5.22 cm thickness, this calculation was 1.63 % higher than the prescription. For another patient using D53 applicators in the CC direction and 7 cm SDO applicators in the ML direction, this calculation was 1.31 % lower than the prescription. Conclusion: This is a simple and quick method to double check the dose on the central plane for Accuboost treatment.« less

An X Window system for statlab results reporting.

PubMed Central

Barrows, R. C.; Allen, B.; Fink, D. J.

1993-01-01

We have developed a system that receives "stat" results encoded in Health Level Seven from the Laboratory Information System, prints a report in destination Intensive Care Units (ICUs), and captures the data for review in a custom spreadsheet format at color X-terminals located in ICUs. Available services include a reference nomogram plot of arterial blood gas data, printed summaries, automated access to the Clinical Information System and a Medline database, electronic mail, a simulated electronic calculator, and general news and information. Security mechanisms include an audit trail of user activities on the system. Noteworthy technical aspects and non-technical factors impacting success are discussed. Images Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:8130490

A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients.

PubMed

Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Houben, Ruud; van de Heuvel, Michel; Uyterlinde, Wilma; Deasy, Joseph O; Belderbos, Jose; Dingemans, Anne-Marie C; Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun; Lambin, Philippe

2015-07-15

Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability (www.predictcancer.org). The data set can be downloaded at https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048. The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio as a promising biomarker to predict clinical outcome of non-small cell lung cancer individuals.

PubMed

Li, Shu-Qi; Jiang, Yu-Huan; Lin, Jin; Zhang, Jing; Sun, Fan; Gao, Qiu-Fang; Zhang, Lei; Chen, Qing-Gen; Wang, Xiao-Zhong; Ying, Hou-Qun

2018-04-01

Chronic inflammation is one of the critical causes to promote the initiation and metastasis of solid malignancies including lung cancer (LC). Here, we aimed to investigate the prognostic roles of albumin (Alb)-to-fibrinogen (Fib) ratio (AFR), Fib and Alb in LC and to establish a novel effective nomogram combined with AFR. Four hundred twelve LC patients diagnosed between February 2005 and December 2014 were recruited in this prospective study. The prognostic roles of AFR, Fib, Alb, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) were identified by X-tile software, Kaplan-Meier curve, Cox regression model, and time-dependent ROC. Pretreatment high circulating Fib, low AFR, and Alb were significantly associated with increased risk of death for LC patients, especially for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients in all stages. The area under curves (AUCs) of AFR, Fib, and NLR were higher than them within Alb and PLR for predicting the survival of NSCLC patients. Moreover, we found that clinical outcome of high AFR patient with chemo-radiotherapy was superior to low AFR patient; overall survival rate of stage II-III NSCLC patients undergoing chemo-radiotherapy was significantly lower than the surgical patients with treatment of adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy(P = 0.001) in low AFR subgroup. On the contrary, clinical outcome of the patients receiving chemo-radiotherapy was the same to the patients undergoing surgery and adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (P = 0.405) in high AFR subgroup. In addition, c-index of predicted nomogram including AFR (0.717) for NSCLC patients with treatment of chemo-radiotherapy was higher than that without AFR (0.707). Our findings demonstrated that circulating pretreatment AFR might be a potential biomarker to predict clinical efficacy of surgical resection and adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy and be a prognostic biomarker for NSCLC individuals. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Normal limits in relation to age, body size and gender of two-dimensional echocardiographic aortic root dimensions in persons ≥15 years of age.

PubMed

Devereux, Richard B; de Simone, Giovanni; Arnett, Donna K; Best, Lyle G; Boerwinkle, Eric; Howard, Barbara V; Kitzman, Dalane; Lee, Elisa T; Mosley, Thomas H; Weder, Alan; Roman, Mary J

2012-10-15

Nomograms to predict normal aortic root diameter for body surface area (BSA) in broad ranges of age have been widely used but are limited by lack of consideration of gender effects, jumps in upper limits of aortic diameter among age strata, and data from older teenagers. Sinus of Valsalva diameter was measured by American Society of Echocardiography convention in normal-weight, nonhypertensive, nondiabetic subjects ≥15 years old without aortic valve disease from clinical or population-based samples. Analyses of covariance and linear regression with assessment of residuals identified determinants and developed predictive models for normal aortic root diameter. In 1,207 apparently normal subjects ≥15 years old (54% women), aortic root diameter was 2.1 to 4.3 cm. Aortic root diameter was strongly related to BSA and height (r = 0.48 for the 2 comparisons), age (r = 0.36), and male gender (+2.7 mm adjusted for BSA and age, p <0.001 for all comparisons). Multivariable equations using age, gender, and BSA or height predicted aortic diameter strongly (R = 0.674 for the 2 comparisons, p <0.001) with minimal relation of residuals to age or body size: for BSA 2.423 + (age [years] × 0.009) + (BSA [square meters] × 0.461) - (gender [1 = man, 2 = woman] × 0.267), SEE 0.261 cm; for height 1.519 + (age [years] × 0.010) + (height [centimeters] × 0.010) - (gender [1 = man, 2 = woman] × 0.247), SEE 0.215 cm. In conclusion, aortic root diameter is larger in men and increases with body size and age. Regression models incorporating body size, age, and gender are applicable to adolescents and adults without limitations of previous nomograms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Presence of Vascular Mimicry Predicts High Risk of Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma after Radical Nephrectomy.

PubMed

Zhou, Lin; Chang, Yuan; Xu, Le; Liu, Zheng; Fu, Qiang; Yang, Yuanfeng; Lin, Zongming; Xu, Jiejie

2016-08-01

Vascular mimicry is a type of tumor cell plasticity. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of vascular mimicry in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma. We performed a retrospective cohort study in 387 patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma who underwent radical nephrectomy at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University between 2008 and 2009. Pathological features, baseline patient characteristics and followup data were recorded. Vascular mimicry in clear cell renal cell carcinoma tissue was identified by CD31-periodic acid-Schiff double staining. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the impact of prognostic factors on recurrence-free survival. The concordance index and the Akaike information criterion were used to assess the predictive accuracy and sufficiency of different models. Positive vascular mimicry staining occurred in 25 of 387 clear cell renal cell carcinoma cases (6.5%) and it was associated with an increased risk of recurrence (log-rank p <0.001). Incorporating vascular mimicry into pT stage, Fuhrman grade and Leibovich score helped refine individual risk stratification. Moreover, vascular mimicry was identified as an independent prognostic factor (p = 0.001). It was entered into a nomogram together with pT stage, Fuhrman grade, tumor size and necrosis. In the primary cohort the Harrell concordance index for the established nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival was slightly higher than that of the Leibovich model (0.850 vs. 0.823), which failed to reach statistical significance (p = 0.158). Vascular mimicry could be a potential prognosticator for recurrence-free survival in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma after radical nephrectomy. Further external validation and functional analysis should be pursued to assess its potential prognostic and therapeutic values for clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PI-RADS version 2: Preoperative role in the detection of normal-sized pelvic lymph node metastasis in prostate cancer.

PubMed

Park, Sung Yoon; Shin, Su-Jin; Jung, Dae Chul; Cho, Nam Hoon; Choi, Young Deuk; Rha, Koon Ho; Hong, Sung Joon; Oh, Young Taik

2017-06-01

To analyze whether Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADSv2) scores are associated with a risk of normal-sized pelvic lymph node metastasis (PLNM) in prostate cancer (PCa). A consecutive series of 221 patients who underwent magnetic resonance imaging and radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) for PCa were retrospectively analyzed under the approval of institutional review board in our institution. No patients had enlarged (≥0.8cm in short-axis diameter) lymph nodes. Clinical parameters [prostate-specific antigen (PSA), greatest percentage of biopsy core, and percentage of positive cores], and PI-RADSv2 score from two independent readers were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating-characteristic curve for PLNM. Diagnostic performance of PI-RADSv2 and Briganti nomogram was compared. Weighted kappa was investigated regarding PI-RADSv2 scoring. Normal-sized PLNM was found in 9.5% (21/221) of patients. In multivariate analysis, PI-RADSv2 (reader 1, p=0.009; reader 2, p=0.026) and PSA (reader 1, p=0.008; reader 2, p=0.037) were predictive of normal-sized PLNM. Threshold of PI-RADSv2 was a score of 5, where PI-RADSv2 was associated with high sensitivity (reader 1, 95.2% [20/21]; reader 2, 90.5% [19/21]) and negative predictive value (reader 1, 99.2% [124/125]; reader 2, 98.6% [136/138]). However, diagnostic performance of PI-RADSv2 (AUC=0.786-0.788) was significantly lower than that of Briganti nomogram (AUC=0.890) for normal-sized PLNM (p<0.05). The inter-reader agreement was excellent for PI-RADSv2 of 5 or not (weighted kappa=0.804). PI-RADSv2 scores may be associated with the risk of normal-sized PLNM in PCa. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A nomogram to estimate the proportion of patients at hemoglobin A1c target <7% with noninsulin antidiabetic drugs in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of 137 randomized controlled trials with 39,845 patients.

PubMed

Esposito, Katherine; Chiodini, Paolo; Ceriello, Antonio; Giugliano, Dario

2014-04-01

We assessed the efficacy of noninsulin antidiabetic medications used in current clinical practice (metformin, sulfonylureas, α-glucosidase inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, glinides, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists) to reach the HbA1c target <7% in people with type 2 diabetes. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane CENTRAL were searched from inception through April 2011 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving noninsulin antidiabetic drugs. RCTs had to report the effect of any diabetes medication on the HbA1c levels, to include at least 30 subjects in every arm of the study, and to last at least 12 weeks. Data were summarized across studies using random-effects meta-regression. We found 137 RCTs with 205 arms and 39,845 patients. The proportion of patients who achieved the HbA1c goal ranged from 25.9% (95% CI 18.5-34.9) with α-glucosidase inhibitors to 48.6% (95% CI, 53.6) with GLP-1 analogs. Baseline HbA1c was the major determinant of the proportion of patients at HbA1c goal. The meta-regression model with mean baseline HbA1c value, concomitant drug use, and class of drugs as covariates explained almost 67% of the between-study variability. A nomogram was developed to estimate the proportion of patients at target for each noninsulin drug class: for a baseline HbA1c level of 7.5%, all noninsulin drugs, except α-glucosidase inhibitors, achieved the HbA1c goal <7% in more than 50% of patients. Starting or intensifying pharmacological therapy at baseline HbA1c 8% or less was associated with more than 50% of patients at HbA1c goal for most noninsulin drugs.

Prediction of Pathological Stage in Patients with Prostate Cancer: A Neuro-Fuzzy Model

PubMed Central

Acampora, Giovanni; Brown, David; Rees, Robert C.

2016-01-01

The prediction of cancer staging in prostate cancer is a process for estimating the likelihood that the cancer has spread before treatment is given to the patient. Although important for determining the most suitable treatment and optimal management strategy for patients, staging continues to present significant challenges to clinicians. Clinical test results such as the pre-treatment Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) level, the biopsy most common tumor pattern (Primary Gleason pattern) and the second most common tumor pattern (Secondary Gleason pattern) in tissue biopsies, and the clinical T stage can be used by clinicians to predict the pathological stage of cancer. However, not every patient will return abnormal results in all tests. This significantly influences the capacity to effectively predict the stage of prostate cancer. Herein we have developed a neuro-fuzzy computational intelligence model for classifying and predicting the likelihood of a patient having Organ-Confined Disease (OCD) or Extra-Prostatic Disease (ED) using a prostate cancer patient dataset obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network. The system input consisted of the following variables: Primary and Secondary Gleason biopsy patterns, PSA levels, age at diagnosis, and clinical T stage. The performance of the neuro-fuzzy system was compared to other computational intelligence based approaches, namely the Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy C-Means, Support Vector Machine, the Naive Bayes classifiers, and also the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram which is commonly used by clinicians. A comparison of the optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) points that were identified using these approaches, revealed that the neuro-fuzzy system, at its optimal point, returns the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), with a low number of false positives (FPR = 0.274, TPR = 0.789, AUC = 0.812). The proposed approach is also an improvement over the AJCC pTNM Staging Nomogram (FPR = 0.032, TPR = 0.197, AUC = 0.582). PMID:27258119

Bayesian Forecasting Tool to Predict the Need for Antidote in Acute Acetaminophen Overdose.

PubMed

Desrochers, Julie; Wojciechowski, Jessica; Klein-Schwartz, Wendy; Gobburu, Jogarao V S; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi

2017-08-01

Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is the leading cause of acute liver injury in the United States. Patients with elevated plasma acetaminophen concentrations (PACs) require hepatoprotective treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC). These patients have been primarily risk-stratified using the Rumack-Matthew nomogram. Previous studies of acute APAP overdoses found that the nomogram failed to accurately predict the need for the antidote. The objectives of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model for APAP following acute overdose and evaluate the utility of population PK model-based Bayesian forecasting in NAC administration decisions. Limited APAP concentrations from a retrospective cohort of acute overdosed subjects from the Maryland Poison Center were used to develop the population PK model and to investigate the effect of type of APAP products and other prognostic factors. The externally validated population PK model was used a prior for Bayesian forecasting to predict the individual PK profile when one or two observed PACs were available. The utility of Bayesian forecasted APAP concentration-time profiles inferred from one (first) or two (first and second) PAC observations were also tested in their ability to predict the observed NAC decisions. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the data with single activated charcoal and APAP products as significant covariates on absorption and bioavailability. The Bayesian forecasted individual concentration-time profiles had acceptable bias (6.2% and 9.8%) and accuracy (40.5% and 41.9%) when either one or two PACs were considered, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the Bayesian forecasted NAC decisions using one PAC were 84% and 92.6%, respectively. The population PK analysis provided a platform for acceptably predicting an individual's concentration-time profile following acute APAP overdose with at least one PAC, and the individual's covariate profile, and can potentially be used for making early NAC administration decisions. © 2017 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Development of models to predict early post-transplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma that also integrate the quality and characteristics of the liver graft: A national registry study in China.

PubMed

Ling, Qi; Liu, Jimin; Zhuo, Jianyong; Zhuang, Runzhou; Huang, Haitao; He, Xiangxiang; Xu, Xiao; Zheng, Shusen

2018-04-27

Donor characteristics and graft quality were recently reported to play an important role in the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation. Our aim was to establish a prognostic model by using both donor and recipient variables. Data of 1,010 adult patients (training/validation: 2/1) undergoing primary liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma were extracted from the China Liver Transplant Registry database and analyzed retrospectively. A multivariate competing risk regression model was developed and used to generate a nomogram predicting the likelihood of post-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence. Of 673 patients in the training cohort, 70 (10.4%) had hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence with a median recurrence time of 6 months (interquartile range: 4-25 months). Cold ischemia time was the only independent donor prognostic factor for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.234, P = .007). The optimal cutoff value was 12 hours when patients were grouped according to cold ischemia time at 2-hour intervals. Integrating cold ischemia time into the Milan criteria (liver transplantation candidate selection criteria) improved the accuracy for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in both training and validation sets (P < .05). A nomogram composed of cold ischemia time, tumor burden, differentiation, and α-fetoprotein level proved to be accurate and reliable in predicting the likelihood of 1-year hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation. Additionally, donor anti-hepatitis B core antibody positivity, prolonged cold ischemia time, and anhepatic time were linked to the intrahepatic recurrence, whereas older donor age, prolonged donor warm ischemia time, cold ischemia time, and ABO incompatibility were relevant to the extrahepatic recurrence. The graft quality integrated models exhibited considerable predictive accuracy in early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence risk assessment. The identification of donor risks can further help understand the mechanism of different patterns of recurrence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incremental diagnostic quality gain of CTA over V/Q scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism by means of a Wells score Bayesian model: results from the ACDC collaboration.

PubMed

Cochon, Laila; McIntyre, Kaitlin; Nicolás, José M; Baez, Amado Alejandro

2017-08-01

Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ventilation perfusion (V/Q) scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE) by means of a Bayesian statistical model. Wells criteria defined pretest probability. Sensitivity and specificity of CTA and V/Q scan for PE were derived from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated for CTA and V/Q were inserted in the nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were analyzed comparing post- and pretest probability. Comparative gain difference was calculated for CTA ADG over V/Q scan integrating ANOVA p value set at 0.05. The sensitivity for CT was 86.0% (95% CI: 80.2%, 92.1%) and specificity of 93.7% (95% CI: 91.1%, 96.3%). The V/Q scan yielded a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 95%, 97%) and a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 96%, 98%). Bayes nomogram results for CTA were low risk and yielded a posttest probability of 71.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 374%, moderate-risk posttest probability was 85.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 193.4%, and high-risk posttest probability was 95.2%, an ADG of 36.2%, and an RDG of 61.35%. The comparative gain difference for low-risk population was 46.1%; in moderate-risk 41.6%; and in high-risk a 22.1% superiority. ANOVA analysis for LR+ and LR- showed no significant difference (p = 0.8745, p = 0.9841 respectively). This Bayesian model demonstrated a superiority of CTA when compared to V/Q scan for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. Low-risk patients are recognized to have a superior overall comparative gain favoring CTA.

A simplified life-cycle cost comparison of various engines for small helicopter use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Civinskas, K. C.; Fishbach, L. M.

1974-01-01

A ten-year, life-cycle cost comparison is made of the following engines for small helicopter use: (1) simple turboshaft; (2) regenerative turboshaft; (3) compression-ignition reciprocator; (4) spark-ignited rotary; and (5) spark-ignited reciprocator. Based on a simplified analysis and somewhat approximate data, the simple turboshaft engine apparently has the lowest costs for mission times up to just under 2 hours. At 2 hours and above, the regenerative turboshaft appears promising. The reciprocating and rotary engines are less attractive, requiring from 10 percent to 80 percent more aircraft to have the same total payload capability as a given number of turbine powered craft. A nomogram was developed for estimating total costs of engines not covered in this study.

[A comparison between prostatic volume measured during suprapubic ultrasonography (TAUS) and volume of the enucleated gland after open prostatectomy].

PubMed

Szewczyk, Wojciech; Prajsner, Andrzej; Kozina, Janusz; Login, Tomasz; Kaczorowski, Marek

2004-01-01

General practitioner very often uses transabdominal ultrasonograpy (TAUS) in order to measure prostatic volume. Using this method it is rather impossible to distinguish between tissue of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and prostatic tissue which forms so called surgical capsule of BPH. The aim of this study was a comparison of prostatic volume measured during suprapubic (transabdominal) ultrasonography and volume of the enucleated gland after open prostatectomy. Regarding the results authors created a nomogram based on TAUS measurement of the prostate which helps to predict the volume of BPH. They also stated that surgical capsule of the BPH makes about 1/3 of the whole volume of the prostate measured by TAUS.

A web-based information system for management and analysis of patient data after refractive eye surgery.

PubMed

Zuberbuhler, Bruno; Galloway, Peter; Reddy, Aravind; Saldana, Manuel; Gale, Richard

2007-12-01

The aim was to develop a software tool for refractive surgeons using a standard user-friendly web-based interface, providing the user with a secure environment to protect large volumes of patient data. The software application was named "Internet-based refractive analysis" (IBRA), and was programmed with the computer languages PHP, HTML and JavaScript, attached to the opensource MySQL database. IBRA facilitated internationally accepted presentation methods including the stability chart, the predictability chart and the safety chart; it was able to perform vector analysis for the course of a single patient or for group data. With the integrated nomogram calculation, treatment could be customised to reduce the postoperative refractive error. Multicenter functions permitted quality-control comparisons between different surgeons and laser units.

Promising Sparingly Alloyed Boron-Bearing Steels for the Production of High-Strength Fasteners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobylev, M. V.; Koroleva, E. G.; Shtannikov, P. A.

2005-05-01

The main advantages of boron-bearing steels used for production of rolled sections at cold upset shops of Russian automotive plants are considered. A thermodynamic model for the majority of boron-bearing steels for high-strength fasteners is used to plot nomograms characterizing the effect of titanium, aluminum, nitrogen, and boron on the amount of nitrides and oxides segregated in crystallization and on the content of effective boron. The effect of effective boron on the characteristics of hardenability is estimated. The studies conducted are used for determining the range of permissible contents of titanium and aluminum ensuring through hardenability of rolled bars from steels 12G1R, 20G2R, and 30G1R up to 25 mm in diameter.

[The physiological classification of human thermal states under high environmental temperatures].

PubMed

Bobrov, A F; Kuznets, E I

1995-01-01

The paper deals with the physiological classification of human thermal states in a hot environment. A review of the basic systems of classifications of thermal states is given, their main drawbacks are discussed. On the basis of human functional state research in a broad range of environmental temperatures the system of evaluation and classification of human thermal states is proposed. New integral one-dimensional multi-parametric criteria for evaluation are used. For the development of these criteria methods of factor, cluster and canonical correlation analyses are applied. Stochastic nomograms capable of identification of human thermal state for different intensity of influence are given. In this case evaluation of intensity is estimated according to one-dimensional criteria taking into account environmental temperature, physical load and time of man's staying in overheating conditions.

Survival in patients with spinocerebellar ataxia types 1, 2, 3, and 6 (EUROSCA): a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Diallo, Alhassane; Jacobi, Heike; Cook, Arron; Labrum, Robyn; Durr, Alexandra; Brice, Alexis; Charles, Perrine; Marelli, Cecilia; Mariotti, Caterina; Nanetti, Lorenzo; Panzeri, Marta; Rakowicz, Maria; Sobanska, Anna; Sulek, Anna; Schmitz-Hübsch, Tanja; Schöls, Ludger; Hengel, Holger; Melegh, Bela; Filla, Alessandro; Antenora, Antonella; Infante, Jon; Berciano, José; van de Warrenburg, Bart P; Timmann, Dagmar; Boesch, Sylvia; Pandolfo, Massimo; Schulz, Jörg B; Bauer, Peter; Giunti, Paola; Kang, Jun-Suk; Klockgether, Thomas; Tezenas du Montcel, Sophie

2018-04-01

Spinocerebellar ataxias are dominantly inherited progressive ataxia disorders that can lead to premature death. We aimed to study the overall survival of patients with the most common spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6) and to identify the strongest contributing predictors that affect survival. In this longitudinal cohort study (EUROSCA), we enrolled men and women, aged 18 years or older, from 17 ataxia referral centres in ten European countries; participants had positive genetic test results for SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, or SCA6 and progressive, otherwise unexplained, ataxias. Survival was defined as the time from enrolment to death for any reason. We used the Cox regression model adjusted for age at baseline to analyse survival. We used prognostic factors with a p value less than 0·05 from a multivariate model to build nomograms and assessed their performance based on discrimination and calibration. The EUROSCA study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02440763. Between July 1, 2005, and Aug 31, 2006, 525 patients with SCA1 (n=117), SCA2 (n=162), SCA3 (n=139), or SCA6 (n=107) were enrolled and followed up. The 10-year survival rate was 57% (95% CI 47-69) for SCA1, 74% (67-81) for SCA2, 73% (65-82) for SCA3, and 87% (80-94) for SCA6. Factors associated with shorter survival were: dysphagia (hazard ratio 4·52, 95% CI 1·83-11·15) and a higher value for the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA) score (1·26, 1·19-1·33) for patients with SCA1; older age at inclusion (1·04, 1·01-1·08), longer CAG repeat length (1·16, 1·03-1·31), and higher SARA score (1·15, 1·10-1·20) for patients with SCA2; older age at inclusion (1·44, 1·20-1·74), dystonia (2·65, 1·21-5·53), higher SARA score (1·26, 1·17-1·35), and negative interaction between CAG and age at inclusion (0·994, 0·991-0·997) for patients with SCA3; and higher SARA score (1·17, 1·08-1·27) for patients with SCA6. The nomogram-predicted probability of 10-year survival showed good discrimination (c index 0·905 [SD 0·027] for SCA1, 0·822 [0·032] for SCA2, 0·891 [0·021] for SCA3, and 0·825 [0·054] for SCA6). Our study provides quantitative data on the survival of patients with the most common spinocerebellar ataxias, based on a long follow-up period. These results have implications for the design of future interventional studies of spinocerebellar ataxias; for example, the prognostic survival nomogram could be useful for selection and stratification of patients. Our findings need validation in an external population before they can be used to counsel patients and their families. European Union 6th Framework programme, German Ministry of Education and Research, Polish Ministry of Scientific Research and Information Technology, European Union 7th Framework programme, and Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing the Management of Paracetamol Poisoning.

PubMed

Bateman, D Nicholas

2015-09-01

The management of paracetamol poisoning was revolutionized after use of acetylcysteine in the 1970s. The protocol used, 3 weight-related infusions, requires almost 24 hours in hospital. It is associated with adverse events in treated patients, particularly anaphylactoid reactions and vomiting. Present treatment nomograms were based on a small series of untreated patients: only 5 of 22 (23%) and 6 of 25 (24%) between the 100 to 200 mg/L and 200 to 300 mg/L nomogram lines, respectively, developed liver injury (alanine transaminase >1000 IU/L). Many patients treated today are unlikely to be at actual risk for major hepatotoxicity. This article discusses the background to future prospects in this area. The history behind approaches to the use of acetylcysteine is presented briefly. The rationale for, and key findings of, a new 12-hour antidote regimen for paracetamol poisoning are detailed. Newer markers of hepatotoxicity, such as miR-122, HMGB1, and necrosis K18, which predict patients at risk more reliably and earlier than existing tests, are discussed. A 2-phase 12-hour acetylcysteine infusion protocol (100 mg/kg over 2 hours: 200 mg/kg over 10 hours) was studied in a formal factorial design against the traditional 3-phase 20.25-hour infusion protocol, with and without pretreatment with ondansetron or placebo. The 12-hour regimen was associated with very significant reductions in anaphylactoid reactions (odds ratio = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.12-0.43; P < 0.0001) and vomiting (odds ratio = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.79; P = .003) compared with the 20.25-hour infusion protocol. There were few withdrawals from the clinical trial, indicating the feasibility of conducting such studies in Europe. Novel proteomic markers are better than existing standard tests (alanine transaminase and international normalized ratio) early in the course of paracetamol poisoning. Together with these new biomarkers of hepatotoxicity, a 12-hour acetylcysteine protocol offers clinicians and patients the possibility for better targeting of therapy, fewer adverse effects, a simpler dosing regimen, and shorter hospital stay. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the clinical manifestations in necrotizing acute pancreatitis patients with splanchnic vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Zhou, Jing; Ke, Lu; Yang, Dongliang; Chen, Yizhe; Li, Gang; Tong, Zhihui; Li, Weiqin; Li, Jieshou

Splanchnic venous thrombosis (SVT) is a relatively rare but important complication of necrotizing acute pancreatitis (NAP). Clinical manifestations and severity of this complication in different patients vary greatly, ranging from mild abdominal discomfort even asymptomatic to lethal gastrorrhagia or hepatic failure. The aim of the present study was to develop a model to predict the clinical manifestations of SVT in NAP patients. This retrospective cohort study was conducted in the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) of Jinling Hospital. Patients with the presence of both pancreatic necrosis and SVT were selected for possible inclusion. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied using 12 indices including age, gender, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (APACHE II), CRP(C - reactive protein) levels, etc to assess potential predictors for symptomatic pancreatic splanchnic venous thrombosis (PSVT) in this cohort. A prognostic nomogram was also applied to develop an easy-to-use prediction model. A total of 104 patients with necrotizing acute pancreatitis (NAP) and splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT) from January 2012 to December 2013 were enrolled for analysis. A quarter of study subjects (26 of 104, 25%) developed variable symptomatic manifestations including variceal bleeding, persistent ascites and enteral nutrition (EN) intolerance during the disease course. In the multivariable regression model, the following factors were found to be associated with the occurrence of symptomatic SVT: Balthazar's computed tomography (CT) score (OR = 1.818; 95% CI: 1.251-2.641; P = 0.002), intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) (OR = 1.172; 95% CI: 1.001-1.251; P = 0.043 and presence of SMVT (OR = 6.946; 95% CI: 2.290-21.074; P = 0.001). A prediction model incorporating these factors demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.842. Balthazar's CT score, IAP and SMVT are predictors of symptomatic SVT in NAP patients. The nomogram we conducted can be used as an easy-to-use risk stratification tool in either clinical practice or future studies. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SU-E-J-232: Feasibility of MRI-Based Preplan On Low Dose Rate Prostate Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Y; Tward, J; Rassiah-Szegedi, P

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of using MRI-based preplan for low dose rate prostate brachytherapy. Methods: 12 patients who received transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) guided prostate brachytherapy with Pd-103 were retrospectively studied. Our care-standard of the TRUS-based preplan served as the control. One or more prostate T2-weighted wide and/or narrow-field of view MRIs obtained within the 3 months prior to the implant were imported into the MIM Symphony software v6.3 (MIM Software Inc., Cleveland, OH) for each patient. In total, 37 MRI preplans (10 different image sequences with average thickness of 4.8mm) were generated. The contoured prostate volume and the seedmore » counts required to achieve adequate dosimetric coverage from TRUS and MRI preplans were compared for each patient. The effects of different MRI sequences and image thicknesses were also investigated statistically using Student’s t-test. Lastly, the nomogram from the MRI preplan and TRUS preplan from our historical treatment data were compared. Results: The average prostate volume contoured on the TRUS and MRI were 26.6cc (range: 12.6∼41.3cc), and 27.4 cc (range: 14.3∼50.0cc), respectively. Axial MRI thicknesses (range: 3.5∼8.1mm) did not significantly affect the contoured volume or the number of seeds required on the preplan (R2 = 0.0002 and 0.0012, respectively). Four of the MRI sequences (AX-T2, AX-T2-Whole-Pelvis, AX-T2-FSE, and AXIALT2- Hi-Res) showed statistically significant better prostate volume agreement with TRUS than the other seven sequences (P <0.01). Nomogram overlay between the MRI and TRUS preplans showed good agreement; indicating volumes contoured on MRI preplan scan reliably predict how many seeds are needed for implant. Conclusion: Although MRI does not allow for determination of the actual implant geometry, it can give reliable volumes for seed ordering purposes. Our future work will investigate if MRI is sufficient to reliably replace TRUS preplanning in patients where preplan TRUS may be technically challenging.« less

Can a serum acetaminophen concentration obtained less than 4 hours post-ingestion determine which patients do not require treatment with acetylcysteine?

PubMed

Yarema, Mark C; Green, Jason P; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Johnson, David W; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Victorino, Charlemaigne; Spyker, Daniel A; Rumack, Barry H

2017-02-01

The interpretation of acetaminophen concentrations obtained prior to 4 hours after an acute, single overdose remains unclear. Patient care decisions in the Emergency Department could be accelerated if such concentrations could reliably exclude the need for treatment. To determine the agreement between a serum acetaminophen concentration obtained less than 4 hours after an acute ingestion and the subsequent 4 + hour concentration, and the predictive accuracy of early concentrations for identifying patients with potentially toxic exposures. A secondary analysis of patients admitted for acetaminophen poisoning at one of the 34 hospitals in eight Canadian cities from 1980 to 2005. We examined serum acetaminophen concentrations obtained less than 4 hours post-ingestion, and again 4 or more hours post-ingestion. For the diagnostic accuracy analysis, we specified a cutpoint of 100 μg/mL (662 μmol/L) obtained between 2 and 4 hours and a subsequent 4 to 20 hour acetaminophen concentration above the nomogram treatment line of 150 μg/mL (993 μmol/L). Of 2454 patients identified, 879 (36%) had a subsequent acetaminophen concentration above the nomogram treatment line. The 2-4 hour concentration demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.96 [95% CI; 0.94, 0.97] and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.070 [0.048, 0.10]. Coingested opioids reduced this sensitivity to 0.91 [0.83, 0.95], and antimuscarinics to 0.86 [0.72, 0.94]. Only very low to undetectable acetaminophen concentrations prior to 4 hours reliably excluded a subsequent concentration over the treatment line. Applying an acetaminophen concentration cutpoint of 100 μg/mL (662 μmol/L) at 2-4 hours after an acute ingestion as a threshold for repeat testing and/or treatment would occasionally miss potentially toxic exposures. Absorption of acetaminophen is only slightly delayed by coingested opioids or antimuscarinics. Our analysis validates the practice of not retesting when the first post-ingestion acetaminophen concentration is below the lower limit of quantification.

Development of a vancomycin dosing approach for critically ill patients receiving hybrid hemodialysis using Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Lewis, Susan J; Mueller, Bruce A

2018-01-01

Prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy is an increasingly popular treatment for acute kidney injury in critically ill patients that runs at different flow rates and durations than conventional hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapies. Pharmacokinetic studies conducted in patients receiving prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy are scarce; consequently, clinicians are challenged to dose antibiotics effectively. The purpose of this study was to develop vancomycin dosing recommendations for patients receiving prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed in thousands of virtual patients derived from previously published demographic, pharmacokinetic, and dialytic information derived from critically ill patients receiving vancomycin and other forms of renal replacement therapy. We conducted "in silico" vancomycin pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics analyses in these patients receiving prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy to determine what vancomycin dose would achieve vancomycin 24-h area under the curve (AUC 24h ) of 400-700 mg·h/L, a target associated with positive clinical outcomes. Nine different vancomycin dosing regimens were tested using four different, commonly used prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy modalities. A dosing nomogram based on serum concentration data achieved after the third dose was developed to individualize vancomycin therapy. An initial vancomycin dose of 15 or 20 mg/kg immediately followed by 15 mg/kg after subsequent prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy treatments achieved AUC 24h of ≥400 mg·h/L for ≥90% of patients regardless of prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy duration, modality, or time of vancomycin dose relative to prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy. Many patients experienced AUC 24h of ≥700 mg·h/L, but once the dosing nomogram was applied to serum concentrations obtained after the third vancomycin dose, 67%-88% of patients achieved AUC 24h of 400-700 mg·h/L. An initial loading dose of 15-20 mg/kg followed by a maintenance regimen of 15 mg/kg after every prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy session coupled with serum concentration monitoring should be used to individualize vancomycin dosing. These predictions need clinical verification.

Qualitative human body composition analysis assessed with bioelectrical impedance.

PubMed

Talluri, T

1998-12-01

Body composition is generally aiming at quantitative estimates of fat mass, inadequate to assess nutritional states that on the other hand are well defined by the intra/extra cellular masses proportion (ECM/BCM). Direct measures performed with phase sensitive bioelectrical impedance analyzers can be used to define the current distribution in normal and abnormal populations. Phase angle and reactance nomogram is directly reflecting the ECM/BCM pathways proportions and body impedance analysis (BIA) is also validated to estimate the individual content of body cell mass (BCM). A new body cell mass index (BCMI) obtained dividing the weight of BCM in kilograms by the body surface in square meters is confronted to the scatterplot distribution of phase angle and reactance values obtained from controls and patients, and proposed as a qualitative approach to identify abnormal ECM/BCM ratios and nutritional states.

Allometric relationships of the dentition of the great White Shark, Carcharodon carcharias, in forensic investigations of shark attacks.

PubMed

Nambiar, P; Bridges, T E; Brown, K A

1991-06-01

As a result of a systematic morphometric study of shark dentitions, a system of notation for describing the location of shark teeth has been developed and is proposed as a standard to be adopted for use in similar studies in the future. The macroscopic morphology of White Shark teeth has been characterised in order to gain quantitative data which might assist in identification of these sharks from bite marks on victims or objects or from shark carcasses. Using these data, a nomogram has been developed which can be used to estimate the body length of a White Shark from measurements of tooth or bite mark morphology. An example of the forensic application of such allometric data is provided as it applied to a recent fatal attack on a diver by a White Shark.

Recommendations for the paracetamol treatment nomogram and side effects of N-acetylcysteine.

PubMed

Koppen, A; van Riel, A; de Vries, I; Meulenbelt, J

2014-06-01

Treatment of paracetamol intoxication consists of administration of N-acetylcysteine, preferably shortly after paracetamol ingestion. In most countries, the decision to treat patients with N-acetylcysteine depends on the paracetamol plasma concentration. In the literature, different arguments are given regarding when to treat paracetamol overdose. Some authors do not recommend treatment with N-acetylcysteine at low paracetamol plasma concentrations since unnecessary adverse effects may be induced. But no treatment with N-acetylcysteine at higher paracetamol plasma concentrations may lead to unnecessary severe morbidity and mortality. In this review, we provide an overview on the severity and prevalence of adverse side effects after N-acetylcysteine administration and the consequences these side effects may have for the treatment of paracetamol intoxication. The final conclusion is to continue using the guidelines of the Dutch National Poisons Information Centre for N-acetylcysteine administration in paracetamol intoxication.

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Reflectance model for quantifying chlorophyll a in the presence of productivity degradation products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carder, K. L.; Hawes, S. K.; Steward, R. G.; Baker, K. A.; Smith, R. C.; Mitchell, B. G.

1991-01-01

A reflectance model developed to estimate chlorophyll a concentrations in the presence of marine colored dissolved organic matter, pheopigments, detritus, and bacteria is presented. Nomograms and lookup tables are generated to describe the effects of different mixtures of chlorophyll a and these degradation products on the R(412):R(443) and R(443):R(565) remote-sensing reflectance or irradiance reflectance ratios. These are used to simulate the accuracy of potential ocean color satellite algorithms, assuming that atmospheric effects have been removed. For the California Current upwelling and offshore regions, with chlorophyll a not greater than 1.3 mg/cu m, the average error for chlorophyll a retrievals derived from irradiance reflectance data for degradation product-rich areas was reduced from +/-61 percent to +/-23 percent by application of an algorithm using two reflectance ratios rather than the commonly used algorithm applying a single reflectance ratio.

An Analytical Study of Prostate-Specific Antigen Dynamics.

PubMed

Esteban, Ernesto P; Deliz, Giovanni; Rivera-Rodriguez, Jaileen; Laureano, Stephanie M

2016-01-01

The purpose of this research is to carry out a quantitative study of prostate-specific antigen dynamics for patients with prostatic diseases, such as benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and localized prostate cancer (LPC). The proposed PSA mathematical model was implemented using clinical data of 218 Japanese patients with histological proven BPH and 147 Japanese patients with LPC (stages T2a and T2b). For prostatic diseases (BPH and LPC) a nonlinear equation was obtained and solved in a close form to predict PSA progression with patients' age. The general solution describes PSA dynamics for patients with both diseases LPC and BPH. Particular solutions allow studying PSA dynamics for patients with BPH or LPC. Analytical solutions have been obtained and solved in a close form to develop nomograms for a better understanding of PSA dynamics in patients with BPH and LPC. This study may be useful to improve the diagnostic and prognosis of prostatic diseases.

Buying Thermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madding, Robert P.

1981-01-01

The cost of thermographic information obtained by contracting for a service is compared to that of buying equipment and doing the work in-house. A breakeven analysis method is used to find the number of days per year an instrument must be used to justify buying it. Life-cycle costing techniques are used to find the equivalent annual cost of various classes of thermographic instruments. Results indicate that a full-time person earning 20,000 annually must use a 30,000 instrument at least 73 days per year if thermography can otherwise be contracted for $675 per day. By devoting a person to thermography part-time, the number of inspection days for this case can be reduced to about 28. Further in-house advantage can be gained by considering investment tax credits, salvage value and, to some extent, accelerated depreciation. Techniques for finding the breakeven number of inspection days for other costs are developed. A nomogram is included for rapid comparisons.

Comparison of femtosecond laser small-incision lenticule extraction and laser-assisted subepithelial keratectomy to correct myopic astigmatism.

PubMed

Qian, Yishan; Huang, Jia; Zhou, Xingtao; Wang, Yutung

2015-11-01

To compare the efficacy of correcting myopic astigmatism with femtosecond laser small-incision lenticule extraction (SMILE, Carl Zeiss Meditec AG) versus laser-assisted subepithelial keratectomy (LASEK). The study was conducted at the Ophthalmology Department, Eye and ENT Hospital, Shanghai, China. A retrospective, cross-sectional study. This study included patients who underwent small-incision lenticule extraction or LASEK for the correction of myopia and myopic astigmatism. Preoperative and 6-month postoperative astigmatism values were analyzed. The efficacies of the 2 surgeries to correct astigmatism were compared. A total of 180 right eyes of 180 patients (small-incision lenticule extraction: n = 113, LASEK: n = 67) were included. No significant difference was found between the 2 groups in the preoperative astigmatism (small-incision lenticule extraction: 1.16 ± 0.85D, LASEK: 1.16 ± 0.83D, P > .05) or the postoperative astigmatism (small-incision lenticule extraction: 0.35 ± 0.37D; LASEK: 0.31 ± 0.42D, P > .05), determined by manifest refraction. No significant difference was found between the 2 groups in surgically induced astigmatism vector (small-incision lenticule extraction: 1.13 ± 0.83D, LASEK: 1.01 ± 0.65D, P > .05). The correction index was higher for the small-incision lenticule extraction group (1.05 ± 0.53) than for the LASEK group (0.95 ± 0.21, P = .045). The postoperative astigmatism was significantly higher for the small-incision lenticule extraction group when the preoperative astigmatism was 1.0 D or less (small-incision lenticule extraction: 0.26 ± 0.30D, LASEK: 0.12 ± 0.20D, P = .007) and lower for the small-incision lenticule extraction group when the preoperative astigmatism was more than 2.0 D (small-incision lenticule extraction: 0.48 ± 0.37D, LASEK: 0.89 ± 0.46D, P = .002). An adjustment of nomograms for correcting low astigmatism (≤1.0 D) by small-incision lenticule extraction is suggested due to the tendency toward overcorrection, whereas a nomogram adjustment for tissue-saving ablation profile is needed for the correction of high astigmatism (>2.0 D) by LASEK due to the tendency toward undercorrection. The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practice Patterns of Radiation Field Design for Sentinel Lymph Node-Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Azghadi, Soheila; Daly, Megan; Mayadev, Jyoti

2016-10-01

Recent randomized trials have led to decreased use of completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in early-stage breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel lymph node (SLN), causing controversy surrounding radiotherapy coverage of the axilla. We investigated the practice variation among radiation oncologists for regional nodal coverage for clinicopathologic scenarios and evaluated axillary field design decision-making processes. A customized, web-based questionnaire was e-mailed to 983 community (n = 617) and academic (n = 366) radiation oncologists with a breast cancer subspecialty practicing in the United States. The survey consisted of 18 multiple-choice questions evaluating general clinical preferences surrounding radiation therapy (RT) field design for patients with early-stage breast cancer and a positive SLN. Seven case scenarios were developed to investigate the field design in the setting of specific clinical and pathologic risk factors. Nodal coverage was classified as standard tangents (STs), high tangents (HTs), STs and a supraclavicular field (SCF), or STs and full axillary coverage (AX). A total of 145 evaluable responses were collected, with a response rate of 15.0%. Of the respondents, 12 (8.3%) reported using completion ALND for patients with 1 to 3 positive SLNs without extracapsular extension (ECE) and 66 (45.5%) performed ALND with 1 to 3 positive SLNs with ECE. For micrometastatic SLNs, with no lymphovascular system invasion, 115 (87.1%) used STs or HTs. The use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) influenced RT field design for patients with a positive SLN without ECE, with 64 (48.5%) using STs and SCF or STs and AX treatment without NAC and 94 (70.7%) using SCF and AX after NAC. With macrometastatic SLN involvement, most respondents preferred SCF (45.27%) and AX (45.66%). In contrast, for micrometastatic involvement, HTs (43.61%) were frequently chosen. Forty (27.8%) reported using online predictive nomograms to predict further axillary involvement, with no difference between the academic and community radiation oncologists (P = .11). In SLN biopsy-positive early-stage breast cancer with omission of completion ALND, axillary RT is increasing used to cover the undissected axilla. Most respondents use SCF or AX for patients with low to intermediate pathologic features. Online prediction nomograms are used by a few practitioners to assist in clinical decision-making in this setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How practical is the application of percutaneous nephrolithotomy scoring systems? Prospective study comparing Guy's Stone Score, S.T.O.N.E. score and the Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society (CROES) nomogram.

PubMed

Singla, Anurag; Khattar, Nikhil; Nayyar, Rishi; Mehra, Shibani; Goel, Hemant; Sood, Rajeev

2017-03-01

To prospectively compare the Guy's Stone Score (GSS), S.T.O.N.E. [stone size (S), tract length (T), obstruction (O), number of involved calices (N), and essence or stone density (E)] score and the Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society (CROES) nephrolithometric nomogram to predict percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) success rate and assess the correlation with perioperative complications. We prospectively evaluated all consecutive PCNL patients at our institute between 1 November 2013 and 31 May 2015. The above scoring systems were applied to preoperative non-contrast computed tomography and the practical difficulties in such applications were noted. Perioperative complications and the stone-free rate (SFR) were also recorded. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and the areas under curves were compared and appropriate statistical analysis done. In all, 48 renal units were included in the study. The overall SFR was 62.2%. The presence of staghorn stones ( β  = 27.285, 95% confidence interval 1.19-625.35; P  = 0.039) was the only significant variable associated with the residual stones on multivariate analysis. Stone-free patients had significantly lower median GSS (2 vs 4) and S.T.O.N.E. scores (6 vs 10) and higher median CROES scores (83% vs 63%) (all P  < 0.001) compared to residual-stone patients. All scoring systems were significantly associated with SFR (all P  < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the areas under curves of the scoring systems (0.858, 0.923, and 0.931, respectively). Furthermore, all scoring systems had weak correlations with Clavien-Dindo classified complications ( r  = 0.29, P  = 0.045; r  = 0.40, P  = 0.005 and r  = -0.295, P  = 0.04, respectively). We found no standardisation for the measurement of stone dimensions, tract length, Hounsfield units, and staghorn definition. All scoring systems equally predicted SFR and had a weak correlation with Clavien-Dindo complications. Standardisation is needed for the variables in which they have been found deficient.

Is sensory urgency part of the same spectrum of bladder dysfunction as detrusor overactivity?

PubMed

Haylen, Bernard T; Chetty, Naven; Logan, Vanessa; Schulz, Serena; Verity, Louise; Law, Matthew; Zhou, Jialun

2007-02-01

It has been suggested that the urogynecological diagnosis of sensory urgency is an early form of detrusor overactivity and may be just earlier in the spectrum of disease. The former term is generally defined as increased perceived bladder sensation during filling, a low first desire to void and low bladder capacity in the absence of recorded urinary tract infection (UTI) or detrusor overactivity. The aims of this study are to determine the prevalence and associations of sensory urgency in comparison with detrusor overactivity, and whether sensory urgency is shown to be in the same spectrum of bladder dysfunction as detrusor overactivity. Five hundred and ninety-two women attending for an initial urogynecological/urodynamic assessment took part in this prospective study. In addition to a full clinical assessment, all women underwent free uroflowmetry, residual urine volume measurement (by vaginal ultrasound) and multichannel filling and voiding cystometry. Data were separated into those having (1) sensory urgency or (2) detrusor overactivity. Apart from prevalence figures, comparative associations were sought for (3) age; (4) parity; (5) presenting symptoms; (6) presence of at least one (medically) documented UTI in the previous 12 months; (7) two or more (recurrent) documented UTIs in the previous 12 months; (8) prior hysterectomy; (9) prior continence surgery; (10) menopause; (11) menopause and HRT use; (12) sign of clinical stress leakage; (13) retroverted uterus; (14) anterior vaginal wall prolapse; (15) uterine prolapse; (16) posterior vaginal wall prolapse; (17) apical vaginal prolapse; (18, 19) maximum, average urine flow rate (MUFR, AUFR) centiles, Liverpool Nomograms; (20) median residual urine volume (RUV) in milliliters; (21, 22) voiding difficulty: VD1,VD2 (MUFR, AUFR under 10th centile Liverpool Nomogram and/or RUV >30 ml); (23) diagnosis of urodynamic stress incontinence and (24) diagnosis of uterine and/or vaginal prolapse (grade >0). The prevalence of sensory urgency was 13%. The only differences in the clinical and urodynamic profiles of it and detrusor overactivity were (1) significantly increased prevalence of the symptom of urge incontinence and (2) (by definition) abnormal detrusor contractions during filling cystometry in women with detrusor overactivity. Overall, sensory urgency and detrusor overactivity appear to be part of the same spectrum of bladder dysfunction.

Characteristics and outcomes of paracetamol poisoning cases at a general hospital in Northern Malaysia.

PubMed

Mohd Zain, Z; Fathelrahman, A I; Ab Rahman, A F

2006-02-01

Paracetamol is available as an over-the-counter medication in many countries including Malaysia. This drug has been implicated in many poisoning cases admitted to hospitals throughout the country. We conducted a three-year retrospective review of 165 medical records of patients admitted to the Penang General Hospital for acute paracetamol poisoning. Cases were identified according to the discharge diagnosis documented in their medical records. Acute paracetamol poisoning occurred in all major ethnic groups. About 70 percent of our patients were female. There was minimal involvement of children. Admissions were more likely to be due to deliberate ingestions rather than accidental poisoning. In most cases, serum concentrations data plotted on the Rumack-Matthew nomogram predicted the majority of cases to be unlikely to be hepatotoxic, which were consistent with their mild clinical courses. Patients who acutely ingested more than 140 mg/kg or predicted to be hepatotoxic, based on their serum concentrations, had a significantly longer hospital stay. Although acute paracetamol poisoning was common, the outcome was generally good.

Predictive models in urology.

PubMed

Cestari, Andrea

2013-01-01

Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

Nomogram to predict successful placement in surgical subspecialty fellowships using applicant characteristics.

PubMed

Muffly, Tyler M; Barber, Matthew D; Karafa, Matthew T; Kattan, Michael W; Shniter, Abigail; Jelovsek, J Eric

2012-01-01

The purpose of the study was to develop a model that predicts an individual applicant's probability of successful placement into a surgical subspecialty fellowship program. Candidates who applied to surgical fellowships during a 3-year period were identified in a set of databases that included the electronic application materials. Of the 1281 applicants who were available for analysis, 951 applicants (74%) successfully placed into a colon and rectal surgery, thoracic surgery, vascular surgery, or pediatric surgery fellowship. The optimal final prediction model, which was based on a logistic regression, included 14 variables. This model, with a c statistic of 0.74, allowed for the determination of a useful estimate of the probability of placement for an individual candidate. Of the factors that are available at the time of fellowship application, 14 were used to predict accurately the proportion of applicants who will successfully gain a fellowship position. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Considerations on prevention of phlebitis and venous pain from intravenous prostaglandin E(1) administration by adjusting solution pH: in vitro manipulations affecting pH.

PubMed

Kohno, Emiko; Nishikata, Mayumi; Okamura, Noboru; Matsuyama, Kenji

2008-01-01

Prostaglandin E(1) (PGE(1); Alprostadil Alfadex) is a potent vasodilator and inhibitor of platelet aggregation used to treat patients with peripheral vascular disease. The main adverse effects of intravenous PGE(1) administration, phlebitis and venous pain, arise from the unphysiologically low pH of infusion solutions. When PGE(1) infusion solutions with a pH value greater then 6 are used, phlebitis and venous pain are considered to be avoidable. Beginning with a PGE(1) infusion solution with pH greater than 6, we add the amount of 7% sodium bicarbonate needed to bring the solution to pH 7.4 if phlebitis or venous pain develops. In the present study we established a convenient nomogram showing the relationship between the titratable acidity of various infusion solutions and the volume of 7% sodium bicarbonate required to attain pH 7.4 for preventing the phlebitis and venous pain associated with PGE(1) infusion.

Bilirubin-a potential marker of drug exposure in atazanavir-based antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Rekić, Dinko; Clewe, Oskar; Röshammar, Daniel; Flamholc, Leo; Sönnerborg, Anders; Ormaasen, Vidar; Gisslén, Magnus; Abelö, Angela; Ashton, Michael

2011-12-01

The objective of this work was to examine the atazanavir-bilirubin relationship using a population-based approach and to assess the possible application of bilirubin as a readily available marker of atazanavir exposure. A model of atazanavir exposure and its concentration-dependent effect on bilirubin levels was developed based on 200 atazanavir and 361 bilirubin samples from 82 patients receiving atazanavir in the NORTHIV trial. The pharmacokinetics was adequately described by a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and lag-time. The maximum inhibition of bilirubin elimination rate constant (I(max)) was estimated at 91% (95% CI, 87-94) and the atazanavir concentration resulting in half of I(max) (IC50) was 0.30 μmol/L (95% CI, 0.24-0.37). At an atazanavir/ritonavir dose of 300/100 mg given once daily, the bilirubin half-life was on average increased from 1.6 to 8.1 h. A nomogram, which can be used to indicate suboptimal atazanavir exposure and non-adherence, was constructed based on model simulations.

Survival analysis of heart failure patients: A case study.

PubMed

Ahmad, Tanvir; Munir, Assia; Bhatti, Sajjad Haider; Aftab, Muhammad; Raza, Muhammad Ali

2017-01-01

This study was focused on survival analysis of heart failure patients who were admitted to Institute of Cardiology and Allied hospital Faisalabad-Pakistan during April-December (2015). All the patients were aged 40 years or above, having left ventricular systolic dysfunction, belonging to NYHA class III and IV. Cox regression was used to model mortality considering age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine, serum sodium, anemia, platelets, creatinine phosphokinase, blood pressure, gender, diabetes and smoking status as potentially contributing for mortality. Kaplan Meier plot was used to study the general pattern of survival which showed high intensity of mortality in the initial days and then a gradual increase up to the end of study. Martingale residuals were used to assess functional form of variables. Results were validated computing calibration slope and discrimination ability of model via bootstrapping. For graphical prediction of survival probability, a nomogram was constructed. Age, renal dysfunction, blood pressure, ejection fraction and anemia were found as significant risk factors for mortality among heart failure patients.

Satellite-derived ice data sets no. 2: Arctic monthly average microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations, 1973-1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, C. L.; Comiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

1987-01-01

A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

Update on contemporary management of clinically localized renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Jorns, J J; Thiel, D D; Castle, E P

2012-12-01

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) continues to increase in incidence with the largest increase manifesting in small, organ-confined tumors. This review outlines the epidemiology and current data pertaining to the management of clinically-localized RCC. In this manuscript, the current data outlining the benefit of nephron sparing to the overall survival of the patient is described. The data pertaining to minimally invasive nephron sparing is also explained in detail. From laparoscopic and robotic partial nephrectomy to watchful waiting and percutaneous ablation, the urologist is continually assaulted with new data for the management of clinically-localized RCC. The data can be confusing, and much of it is conflicting. The addition of new scoring systems or nomograms may aid in predicting which therapy would be most beneficial in certain patient groups. New scoring systems may also predict the difficulty of surgical resection and predict surgical complications. The limitations of the data pertaining to the management of clinically-localized RCC are also outlined.

Factors Associated With Early Mortality in Patients Treated With Concurrent Chemoradiation Therapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warner, Andrew; Dahele, Max; Hu, Bo

Purpose: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (con-CRT) is recommended for fit patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) but is associated with toxicity, and observed survival continues to be limited. Identifying factors associated with early mortality could improve patient selection and identify strategies to improve prognosis. Methods and Materials: Analysis of a multi-institutional LA-NSCLC database consisting of 1245 patients treated with con-CRT in 13 institutions was performed to identify factors predictive of 180-day survival. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to identify prognostic groups for 180-day survival. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create a clinical nomogram predicting 180-daymore » survival based on important predictors from RPA. Results: Median follow-up was 43.5 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.3-48.8) and 127 patients (10%) died within 180 days of treatment. Median, 180-day, and 1- to 5-year (by yearly increments) actuarial survival rates were 20.9 months, 90%, 71%, 45%, 32%, 27%, and 22% respectively. Multivariate analysis adjusted by region identified gross tumor volume (GTV) (odds ratio [OR] ≥100 cm{sup 3}: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.10-6.20; P=.029) and pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV{sub 1}], defined as the ratio of FEV{sub 1} to forced vital capacity [FVC]) (OR <80%: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.09-5.88; P=.030) as significant predictors of 180-day survival. RPA resulted in a 2-class risk stratification system: low-risk (GTV <100 cm{sup 3} or GTV ≥100 cm{sup 3} and FEV{sub 1} ≥80%) and high-risk (GTV ≥100 cm{sup 3} and FEV{sub 1} <80%). The 180-day survival rates were 93% for low risk and 79% for high risk, with an OR of 4.43 (95% CI: 2.07-9.51; P<.001), adjusted by region. A clinical nomogram predictive of 180-day survival, incorporating FEV{sub 1}, GTV, N stage, and maximum esophagus dose yielded favorable calibration (R{sup 2} = 0.947). Conclusions: This analysis identified several risk factors associated with early mortality and suggests that future research in the optimization of pretreatment pulmonary function and/or functional lung avoidance treatment may alter the therapeutic ratio in this patient population.« less

Application of mathematical model methods for optimization tasks in construction materials technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fomina, E. V.; Kozhukhova, N. I.; Sverguzova, S. V.; Fomin, A. E.

2018-05-01

In this paper, the regression equations method for design of construction material was studied. Regression and polynomial equations representing the correlation between the studied parameters were proposed. The logic design and software interface of the regression equations method focused on parameter optimization to provide the energy saving effect at the stage of autoclave aerated concrete design considering the replacement of traditionally used quartz sand by coal mining by-product such as argillite. The mathematical model represented by a quadric polynomial for the design of experiment was obtained using calculated and experimental data. This allowed the estimation of relationship between the composition and final properties of the aerated concrete. The surface response graphically presented in a nomogram allowed the estimation of concrete properties in response to variation of composition within the x-space. The optimal range of argillite content was obtained leading to a reduction of raw materials demand, development of target plastic strength of aerated concrete as well as a reduction of curing time before autoclave treatment. Generally, this method allows the design of autoclave aerated concrete with required performance without additional resource and time costs.

Technical note: unsafe rectal temperature measurements due to delayed warming of the thermocouple by using a condom. An issue concerning the estimation of the postmortem interval by using Henßge's nomogram.

PubMed

Krap, Tristan; Meurs, Joris; Boertjes, Janine; Duijst, Wilma

2016-03-01

In some cases, in the Netherlands, an additional layer is being added to the thermocouple, used to measure the rectal temperature in medicolegal death investigations. Because of this deviation from the standard method, questions arose regarding the accuracy and precision of the measured temperature. Therefore, a cooling experiment was carried out on a round body made of agar with an average thermal conductivity of 0.454 W/(m °C) while measuring the temperature with and without an additional layer around the thermocouple for three different starting temperatures: 36, 30, and 27 °C. The results show a significant difference between the measured values for the first 5 min when comparing with and without the additional layer. Further, a decrease in precision is present within the first minutes when using an additional layer. Therefore, it is concluded that it is best to measure the rectal temperature without an additional layer around the thermocouple and caution should be taken when measuring with an additional layer.

The break-even point: when medical advances are less important than improving the fidelity with which they are delivered.

PubMed

Woolf, Steven H; Johnson, Robert E

2005-01-01

Society invests billions of dollars in the development of new drugs and technologies but comparatively little in the fidelity of health care, that is, improving systems to ensure the delivery of care to all patients in need. Using mathematical arguments and a nomogram, we demonstrate that technological advances must yield dramatic, often unrealistic increases in efficacy to do more good than could be accomplished by improving fidelity. In 2 examples (the development of anti-platelet agents and statins), we show that enhanced efficacy failed to achieve the health gains that would have occurred by delivering older agents to all eligible patients. Society's huge investment in technological innovations that only modestly improve efficacy, by consuming resources needed for improved delivery of care, may cost more lives than it saves. The misalignment of priorities is driven partly by the commercial interests of industry and by the public's appetite for technological breakthroughs, but health outcomes ultimately suffer. Health, economic, and moral arguments make the case for spending less on technological advances and more on improving systems for delivering care.

Severe hypertriglyceridemia secondary to venlafaxine use in an older adult on dialysis -case report.

PubMed

Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Simonavice, Cory A; Lu, Chiung-Ray; Lin, Wen-Ling; Wu, Po-Lun; Chou, Che-Yi; Liao, Chun-Hui; Lane, Hsieh-Yuan

2017-04-13

Although the prescribing information for Venlafaxine extended release includes a discussion about possible increases in total cholesterol and triglycerides (TG) seen in healthier adult patients during premarketing clinical trials, no post-marketing studies or case reports, that discuss the effects of venlafaxine on TG in elderly patients with chronic kidney disease. We report a 71 year-old male patient with end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis, with a history of coronary artery disease, mild hyperlipidemia, and hypertension. This patient twice demonstrated the severe rises in triglycerides while taking the antidepressant, i.e., venlafaxine, and discontinuing the long-term use of fenofirate. The adverse drug reaction sub-committee at the hospital rated the second event as a "probable reaction" using the Naranjo nomogram, accordingly. This case demonstrates the risk of changes in lipid profiles while taking venlafaxine and receiving on and off fenofibrate therapy in the older adult patient with chronic kidney disease and under hemodialysis. Regular monitoring for lipid changes after starting venlafaxine is strongly advised for patients with existing risk factors.

Long-term functional outcomes after penoscrotal hypospadias repair: A retrospective comparative study of proximal TIP, Onlay, and Duckett.

PubMed

Hueber, Pierre-Alain; Salgado Diaz, Monica; Chaussy, Yann; Franc-Guimond, Julie; Barrieras, Diego; Houle, Anne-Marie

2016-08-01

A variety of techniques are available for proximal hypospadias repair. Onlay, proximal tubularized incised plate (TIP), and Duckett are among the popular choices because they can be performed as a one-step procedure. However, the decision to select a procedure often comes down to the surgeon's preference rather than that supported by evidence-based data. In particular, there is a paucity of literature on the long-term urinary outcomes after proximal hypospadias repair. The aim of this study was to evaluate the evolution of long-term uroflowmetry parameters after proximal hypospadias surgery over a long-term follow-up including the adolescent period. Files from patients who underwent primary proximal hypospadias repair at our institution between 1997 and 2001 were reviewed. Only patients with documented serial postoperative uroflowmetry profiles at follow-up visits were included. Comparison between surgeries (pTIP vs. Onlay vs. Duckett) was performed according to the following postoperative time interval endpoints: 0-1 years, 1-2, >2-4, >4-6, >6-10, >10-12, and >12 years. Maximal urinary flow rate (Qmax) in relation to voiding volume (VV) adjusted for age or body surface area (BSA) were also evaluated in comparison to normal children using established Miskolc nomograms and compared between surgery techniques. Fifty-two patients met the inclusion criteria with a median follow-up of 10 years: 25 (59.6%) TIP, 18 (34/6%) Onlay, and nine (17.3%) Duckett. Overall, Qmax increased progressively according to time and age in particular during the period covering adolescence. At follow-up 12 years postoperatively, median Qmax values were 18.5 mL/second, 13.8 mL/second and 16.6 mL/second for TIP, Onlay, and Duckett, respectively, with no significant differenced detected between groups (p = 0.5) see figure). Compared with normal children when adjusted for voiding volume and BSA, the proportion of obstructive uroflowmetry patterns defined as Qmax<25th percentile of nomograms was more prevalent in patients aged 3-7 years old at 83.8% but decreased to less than 21.2% in patients aged >13 years for all procedures (see figure). These results are consistent with previous work showing frequently reduced Qmax after hypospadias surgery with great potential for improvement at puberty. These results suggest that the obstructive urinary flow pattern observed in patients early on is a frequent finding after proximal hypospadias surgery. However, because of the remarkable improvement observed at puberty a watchful waiting approach is proposed in order to avoid unnecessary intervention. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer extracted texture features on T2w MRI to predict biochemical recurrence following radiation therapy for prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ginsburg, Shoshana B.; Rusu, Mirabela; Kurhanewicz, John; Madabhushi, Anant

2014-03-01

In this study we explore the ability of a novel machine learning approach, in conjunction with computer-extracted features describing prostate cancer morphology on pre-treatment MRI, to predict whether a patient will develop biochemical recurrence within ten years of radiation therapy. Biochemical recurrence, which is characterized by a rise in serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of at least 2 ng/mL above the nadir PSA, is associated with increased risk of metastasis and prostate cancer-related mortality. Currently, risk of biochemical recurrence is predicted by the Kattan nomogram, which incorporates several clinical factors to predict the probability of recurrence-free survival following radiation therapy (but has limited prediction accuracy). Semantic attributes on T2w MRI, such as the presence of extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion and surrogate measure- ments of tumor size, have also been shown to be predictive of biochemical recurrence risk. While the correlation between biochemical recurrence and factors like tumor stage, Gleason grade, and extracapsular spread are well- documented, it is less clear how to predict biochemical recurrence in the absence of extracapsular spread and for small tumors fully contained in the capsule. Computer{extracted texture features, which quantitatively de- scribe tumor micro-architecture and morphology on MRI, have been shown to provide clues about a tumor's aggressiveness. However, while computer{extracted features have been employed for predicting cancer presence and grade, they have not been evaluated in the context of predicting risk of biochemical recurrence. This work seeks to evaluate the role of computer-extracted texture features in predicting risk of biochemical recurrence on a cohort of sixteen patients who underwent pre{treatment 1.5 Tesla (T) T2w MRI. We extract a combination of first-order statistical, gradient, co-occurrence, and Gabor wavelet features from T2w MRI. To identify which of these T2w MRI texture features are potential independent prognostic markers of PSA failure, we implement a partial least squares (PLS) method to embed the data in a low{dimensional space and then use the variable importance in projections (VIP) method to quantify the contributions of individual features to classification on the PLS embedding. In spite of the poor resolution of the 1.5 T MRI data, we are able to identify three Gabor wavelet features that, in conjunction with a logistic regression classifier, yield an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 for predicting the probability of biochemical recurrence following radiation therapy. In comparison to both the Kattan nomogram and semantic MRI attributes, the ability of these three computer-extracted features to predict biochemical recurrence risk is demonstrated.

Polar Value Analysis of Low to Moderate Astigmatism with Wavefront-Guided Sub-Bowman Keratomileusis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yu

2017-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the astigmatic outcomes of wavefront-guided sub-Bowman keratomileusis (WFG-SBK) for low to moderate myopic astigmatism. Methods This study enrolled 100 right eyes from 100 patients who underwent WFG-SBK for the correction of myopia and astigmatism. The polar value method was performed with anterior and posterior corneal astigmatism measured with Scheimpflug camera combined with Placido corneal topography (Sirius, CSO) and refractive astigmatism preoperatively and 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months postoperatively. Results Similar results for surgically induced astigmatism (SIA) and error of the procedure in both anterior corneal astigmatism (ACA) and total ocular astigmatism (TOA). There was a minor undercorrection of the cylinder in both ACA and TOA. Posterior corneal astigmatism (PCA) showed no significant change. Conclusions Wavefront-guided SBK could provide good astigmatic outcomes for the correction of low to moderate myopic astigmatism. The surgical effects were largely attributed to the astigmatic correction of the anterior corneal surface. Posterior corneal astigmatism remained unchanged even after WFG-SBK for myopic astigmatism. Polar value analysis can be used to guide adjustments to the treatment cylinder alongside a nomogram designed to optimize postoperative astigmatic outcomes in myopic WFG-SBK. PMID:28831306

Quantitative evaluation of the fetal cerebellar vermis using the median view on three-dimensional ultrasound.

PubMed

Zhao, Dan; Liu, Wei; Cai, Ailu; Li, Jingyu; Chen, Lizhu; Wang, Bing

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness for quantitative evaluation of cerebellar vermis using three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound and to establish a nomogram for Chinese fetal vermis measurements during gestation. Sonographic examinations were performed in normal fetuses and in cases suspected of the diagnosis of vermian rotation. 3D median planes were obtained with both OMNIVIEW and tomographic ultrasound imaging. Measurements of the cerebellar vermis were highly correlated between two-dimensional and 3D median planes. The diameter of the cerebellar vermis follows growth approximately predicted by the quadratic regression equation. The normal vermis was almost parallel to the brain stem, with the average angle degree to be <2° in normal fetuses. The average angle degree of the 9 cases of vermian rotation was >5°. Three-dimensional median planes are obtained more easily than two-dimensional ones, and allow accurate measurements of the cerebellar vermis. The 3D approach may enable rapid assessment of fetal cerebral anatomy in standard examination. Measurements of cerebellar vermis may provide a quantitative index for prenatal diagnosis of posterior fossa malformations. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in soft tissue sarcomas: latest evidence and clinical implications

PubMed Central

Pasquali, Sandro; Gronchi, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Soft tissue sarcomas are a rare and multifaceted group of solid tumours. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is increasingly used to limit loss of function after wide surgical excision with the ultimate aim of improving patient survival. Recently, advances in the identification of effective treatment strategies and improvements in patient risk stratification have been reached. A randomized trial demonstrated that neoadjuvant epirubicin and ifosfamide improves survival of patients affected by five high-risk soft tissue sarcoma histologies of trunk and extremities, including undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma, myxoid liposarcoma, synovial sarcoma, malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumours, and leiomyosarcoma. Selection of patients for these treatments is expected to be improved by the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system, as it tailors T-stage categories on primary tumour site and considers a prognostic nomogram for retroperitoneal sarcoma, which also includes soft tissue sarcoma histology and other patient and tumour features not directly included in the TNM staging. Within this framework, this article will present neoadjuvant treatment strategies for high-risk soft tissue sarcoma, emphasizing the most recent advances and discussing the need for further research to improve the effectiveness of neoadjuvant treatments. PMID:28607580

Dorsal buccal mucosa graft urethroplasty for female urethral strictures.

PubMed

Migliari, Roberto; Leone, Pierluigi; Berdondini, Elisa; De Angelis, M; Barbagli, Guido; Palminteri, Enzo

2006-10-01

We describe the feasibility and complications of dorsal buccal mucosa graft urethroplasty in female patients with urethral stenosis. From April 2005 to July 2005, 3 women 45 to 65 years old (average age 53.7) with urethral stricture disease underwent urethral reconstruction using a dorsal buccal mucosa graft. Stricture etiology was unknown in 1 patient, ischemic in 1 and iatrogenic in 1. Buccal mucosa graft length was 5 to 6 cm and width was 2 to 3 cm. The urethra was freed dorsally until the bladder neck and then opened on the roof. The buccal mucosa patch was sutured to the margins of the opened urethra and the new roof of the augmented urethra was quilted to the clitoris corpora. In all cases voiding urethrogram after catheter removal showed a good urethral shape with absent urinary leakage. No urinary incontinence was evident postoperatively. On urodynamic investigation all patients showed an unobstructed Blaivas-Groutz nomogram. Two patients complained about irritative voiding symptoms at catheter removal, which subsided completely and spontaneously after a week. The dorsal approach with buccal mucosa graft allowed us to reconstruct an adequate urethra in females, decreasing the risks of incontinence and fistula.

Systematic review of renal carcinoma prognostic factors.

PubMed

Lorente, D; Trilla, E; Meseguer, A; Planas, J; Placer, J; Celma, A; Salvador, C; Regis, L; Morote, J

2017-05-01

The natural history of renal cell carcinoma is heterogeneous. Some scenarios can be found in terms of clinical presentation, clinical evolution or type of recurrence (local/metastatic). The aim of this publication is to analyze the most important prognostic factors published in the literature. A literature review ob published papers was performed using the Pubmed, from first Motzer's classification published in 1999 to 2015, according to PRISMA declaration. Search was done using the following keywords: kidney neoplasm, kidney cancer, renal cell carcinoma, prognostic factors, mortality, survival and disease progression. Papers were classified according to level of evidence, the number of patients included and the type of study performed. The evolution in the knowledge of molecular pathways related to renal oncogenesis and the new targeted therapies has left to remain obsolete the old prognostic models. It's necessary to perform a continuous review to actualize nomograms and to adapt them to the new scenarios. Is necessary to perform a proper external validation of existing prognostic factors using prospective and multicentric studies to add them into the daily urologist clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Chronic acetaminophen overdosing in children: risk assessment and management.

PubMed

Sztajnkrycer, M J; Bond, G R

2001-04-01

Acetaminophen is currently the pediatric analgesic and antipyretic of choice. Although children appear to tolerate single, high-dose ingestions well, the literature is replete with reports of significant morbidity and mortality after repeated supra-therapeutic dosing. Proposed risk factors for injury with chronic use include age, total dose, duration, presence of intercurrent febrile illness, starvation, co-administration of cytochrome P450-inducing drugs, underlying hepatic disease, and unique genetic makeup. Evaluation of these children should include serum acetaminophen concentration, prothrombin time, and serum bilirubin and transaminase concentrations. The Rumack-Mathew nomogram should not be used to estimate the risk of hepatotoxicity in cases of chronic ingestion. Based on history, clinical examination, and laboratory findings, patients may be placed in three categories: those without hepatic injury and with no residual acetaminophen to be metabolized, those without injury but with some acetaminophen to be metabolized, and those with hepatotoxicity. Those without injury and no residual acetaminophen need not be treated or followed. Patients with hepatotoxicity or potential for hepatotoxicity based on residual acetaminophen should be treated with N-acetylcysteine. Most importantly, because so many parents are unaware of the potential risk of inappropriate dosing, education is the key to preventing future cases.

Individualized prediction of seizure relapse and outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery.

PubMed

Lamberink, Herm J; Boshuisen, Kim; Otte, Willem M; Geleijns, Karin; Braun, Kees P J

2018-03-01

The objective of this study was to create a clinically useful tool for individualized prediction of seizure outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery. We used data from the European retrospective TimeToStop study, which included 766 children from 15 centers, to perform a proportional hazard regression analysis. The 2 outcome measures were seizure recurrence and seizure freedom in the last year of follow-up. Prognostic factors were identified through systematic review of the literature. The strongest predictors for each outcome were selected through backward selection, after which nomograms were created. The final models included 3 to 5 factors per model. Discrimination in terms of adjusted concordance statistic was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.69) for predicting seizure recurrence and 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) for predicting eventual seizure freedom. An online prediction tool is provided on www.epilepsypredictiontools.info/ttswithdrawal. The presented models can improve counseling of patients and parents regarding postoperative antiepileptic drug policies, by estimating individualized risks of seizure recurrence and eventual outcome. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 International League Against Epilepsy.

Determination of material distribution in heading process of small bimetallic bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Presz, Wojciech; Cacko, Robert

2018-05-01

The electrical connectors mostly have silver contacts joined by riveting. In order to reduce costs, the core of the contact rivet can be replaced with cheaper material, e.g. copper. There is a wide range of commercially available bimetallic (silver-copper) rivets on the market for the production of contacts. Following that, new conditions in the riveting process are created because the bi-metal object is riveted. In the analyzed example, it is a small size object, which can be placed on the border of microforming. Based on the FEM modeling of the load process of bimetallic rivets with different material distributions, the desired distribution was chosen and the choice was justified. Possible material distributions were parameterized with two parameters referring to desirable distribution characteristics. The parameter: Coefficient of Mutual Interactions of Plastic Deformations and the method of its determination have been proposed. The parameter is determined based of two-parameter stress-strain curves and is a function of these parameters and the range of equivalent strains occurring in the analyzed process. The proposed method was used for the upsetting process of the bimetallic head of the electrical contact. A nomogram was established to predict the distribution of materials in the head of the rivet and the appropriate selection of a pair of materials to achieve the desired distribution.

Fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester: comparison between population groups from different ethnic origins.

PubMed

Papasozomenou, Panayiota; Athanasiadis, Apostolos P; Zafrakas, Menelaos; Panteris, Eleftherios; Loufopoulos, Aristoteles; Assimakopoulos, Efstratios; Tarlatzis, Basil C

2016-03-01

To compare normal ranges of ultrasonographically measured fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester between different ethnic groups. A prospective, non-interventional study in order to establish normal ranges of fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester in a Greek population was conducted in 1220 singleton fetuses between 18 completed weeks and 23 weeks and 6 days of gestation. A literature search followed in order to identify similar studies in different population groups. Fetal nasal bone length mean values and percentiles from different population groups were compared. Analysis of measurements in the Greek population showed a linear association, i.e., increasing nasal bone length with increasing gestational age from 5.73 mm at 18 weeks to 7.63 mm at 23 weeks. Eleven studies establishing normal ranges of fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester were identified. Comparison of fetal nasal bone length mean values between the 12 population groups showed statistically significant differences (P<0.0001). Normal ranges of fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester vary significantly between different ethnic groups. Hence, distinct ethnic nomograms of fetal nasal bone length in the second trimester should be used in a given population rather than an international model.

Review of invasive urodynamics and progress towards non-invasive measurements in the assessment of bladder outlet obstruction

PubMed Central

Griffiths, C. J.; Pickard, R. S.

2009-01-01

Objective: This article defines the need for objective measurements to help diagnose the cause of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). It describes the conventional techniques available, mainly invasive, and then summarizes the emerging range of non-invasive measurement techniques. Methods: This is a narrative review derived form the clinical and scientific knowledge of the authors together with consideration of selected literature. Results: Consideration of measured bladder pressure urinary flow rate during voiding in an invasive pressure flow study is considered the gold standard for categorization of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO). The diagnosis is currently made by plotting the detrusor pressure at maximum flow (pdetQmax) and maximum flow rate (Qmax) on the nomogram approved by the International Continence Society. This plot will categorize the void as obstructed, equivocal or unobstructed. The invasive and relatively complex nature of this investigation has led to a number of inventive techniques to categorize BOO either by measuring bladder pressure non-invasively or by providing a proxy measure such as bladder weight. Conclusion: Non-invasive methods of diagnosing BOO show great promise and a few have reached the stage of being commercially available. Further studies are however needed to validate the measurement technique and assess their worth in the assessment of men with LUTS. PMID:19468436

Indonesian kalkulator of oocytes (IKO): A smart application to determine our biological age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiweko, Budi; Narasati, Shabrina; Agung, Prince Gusti; Zesario, Aulia; Wibawa, Yohanes Satrya; Maidarti, Mila; Harzif, Achmad Kemal; Pratama, Gita; Sumapraja, Kanadi; Muharam, Raden; Hestiantoro, Andon

2018-02-01

Background: The use of smartphones and its associated application provides new opportunities for physicians. In current situations, there are still few applications are designed in the field of infertility and Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART). A study conducted on 1616 subjects proved that AMH (Anti-Mullerian Hormone) could be used to predict a woman's biological age earlier than Follicle-Stimulating Hormone (FSH) and Antral Follicle Count (AFC). In this study, we describe the AMH nomogram that has been developed into a mobile application as "Indonesian Kalculator of Oocytes" (IKO). The software required to create IKO application was the Android 4.0.3 Ice Cream Sandwich and Java Application Development. The hardware specification that needed to develop the IKO apps were a 4.0-inch screen, 512 MB RAM (random-access memory), and CPU (central processing unit) with dual core 1.2 Ghz. The application is built using the Android SDK (Software Development Kit) and Java Application Development. In this application, we can predict the woman's biological age, some mature oocytes, and AMH level. This app is expected to help patients to plan effectively for pregnancy and help the doctor to choose the best intervention for patients who face infertility problems using Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART). IKO application can be downloaded for free on Google PlayStore and Apple Store.

Ultrasound Nomograms of the Fetal Optic Nerve Sheath Diameter.

PubMed

Haratz, Karina Krajden; Melcer, Yaakov; Leibovitz, Zvi; Feit, Hagit; Kerman-Sagie, Tally; Lev, Dorit; Ginath, Shimon; Gindes, Liat; Moron, Antonio Fernandes; Malinger, Gustavo

2018-06-07

 To construct prenatal age-specific reference intervals for sonographic measurements of the optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) during gestation in normal fetuses.  Prospective cross-sectional study of fetuses assessed in antenatal ultrasound units between 2010 and 2014. The examination was based on a technique for the sonographic assessment of ONSD previously published by our group. The mean values and SDs of the ONSD were modeled as a function of the gestational week by curve estimation analysis based on the highest adjusted R2 coefficient. Repeatability tests were performed to assess intraobserver variability and interobserver agreement.  During the study period 364 healthy fetuses were enrolled. The mean values for the ONSD varied from 0.6 mm at 15 - 16 weeks to 2.8 mm at 37 - 38 weeks. The ONSD grows in a linear fashion throughout gestation, with a quadratic equation providing an optimal fit to the data (adjusted R2 = 0.957).  Sonographic age-specific references for the fetal ONSD are presented. This data may assist in the decision-making process in fetuses with a suspected increase in intracranial pressure, or anomalies affecting the development of optic stalks, such as optic hypoplasia and septo-optic dysplasia. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Extended mathematical model for "in vivo" quantification of the interaction betweeen atazanavir and bilirubin.

PubMed

Lozano, Roberto; Domeque, Nieves; Apesteguia, Alberto-Fermín

2014-02-01

The objective of the present work was to conduct an "in vivo" analysis of the atazanavir-bilirubin interaction. We developed a new mathematical approach to PK/PDPK models for competitive interaction based on the Michaelis-Menten equation, which was applied to patients with polymorphisms in the gene for UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 (UGT1A1). Atazanavir is known to induce concentration-dependent increases in bilirubin plasma levels. Thus, we employed our mathematical model to analyse rises in steady state atazanavir and bilirubin concentrations, ultimately plotting a nomogram for detection of suboptimal atazanavir exposure. Application of our model revealed that an absolute value or a steady state increase in bilirubin falling below 3.8Φ µmol/L (where Φ is a correction factor, =1 for UGT1A1 wild type and ≠1 for UGT1A1 variants) could be used to predict suboptimal atazanavir exposure and treatment failure. Thus, we have successfully established a new mathematical approach for pharmacodynamic-pharmacokinetic modelling of the interaction between atazanavir and bilirubin, as it relates to genetic variants of UGT1A1. Taken together, our findings indicate that bilirubin plasma levels represent a valuable marker of atazanavir exposure. © 2013, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

[Metaphylaxis of urolithiasis: new look, modern approach, implementation in a mobile application].

PubMed

Gadzhiev, N K; Brovkin, S S; Grigorev, V E; Dmitriev, V V; Malkhasyan, V A; Shkarupa, D D; Pisarev, A V; Mazurenko, D A; Obidnyak, V M; Orlov, I N; Popov, S V; Tagirov, N S; Petrov, S V

2017-04-01

To analyze the sub-segment of mHealth devoted to assessing of the risk of recurrent stone formation and metaphylaxis of stone formation. To design a smartphone application (app.) in Russian language for urolithiasis patients. Three working groups of urologists from three St. Petersburg clinics searched for downloadable medical applications relevant to the above requirements. After searching and analyzing existing medical applications, the most acceptable design and structure of our own application were identified. The developed "Urolithiasis" application is available for free download in Russian language versions in App Store (Apple, Inc.) and Google Play (Android market, Google, Inc.). It features the following sections: 1) "Take the test" (personalized calculation of the risk of kidney stone recurrence and providing relevant recommendations using ROKS nomogram), 2) "Water" (with reminders to drink water and automatic logging of the water intake), 3) "Food" (Nutrition facts on the content of calcium, oxalate, purine, protein, citrate and calories in common foods), 4) "My doctor" (in the future this option will allow for on-line communication with a patients physician), 5) "Feedback" (if the patient does not find the desired product or has a question - this section is for him/her). The smartphone application "Urolithiasis" in Russian may be recommended to patients with urolithiasis for improving the effectiveness of metaphylaxis.

Micro-scale extensional rheometry using hyperbolic converging/diverging channels and jet breakup

PubMed Central

Keshavarz, Bavand

2016-01-01

Understanding the elongational rheology of dilute polymer solutions plays an important role in many biological and industrial applications ranging from microfluidic lab-on-a-chip diagnostics to phenomena such as fuel atomization and combustion. Making quantitative measurements of the extensional viscosity for dilute viscoelastic fluids is a long-standing challenge and it motivates developments in microfluidic fabrication techniques and high speed/strobe imaging of millifluidic capillary phenomena in order to develop new classes of instruments. In this paper, we study the elongational rheology of a family of dilute polymeric solutions in two devices: first, steady pressure-driven flow through a hyperbolic microfluidic contraction/expansion and, second, the capillary driven breakup of a thin filament formed from a small diameter jet (Dj∼O(100 μm)). The small length scale of the device allows very large deformation rates to be achieved. Our results show that in certain limits of low viscosity and elasticity, jet breakup studies offer significant advantages over the hyperbolic channel measurements despite the more complex implementation. Using our results, together with scaling estimates of the competing viscous, elastic, inertial and capillary timescales that control the dynamics, we construct a dimensionless map or nomogram summarizing the operating space for each instrument. PMID:27375824

Computational investigation of potential dosing schedules for a switch of medication from warfarin to rivaroxaban—an oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor

PubMed Central

Burghaus, Rolf; Coboeken, Katrin; Gaub, Thomas; Niederalt, Christoph; Sensse, Anke; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Weiss, Wolfgang; Mueck, Wolfgang; Tanigawa, Takahiko; Lippert, Jörg

2014-01-01

The long-lasting anticoagulant effect of vitamin K antagonists can be problematic in cases of adverse drug reactions or when patients are switched to another anticoagulant therapy. The objective of this study was to examine in silico the anticoagulant effect of rivaroxaban, an oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor, combined with the residual effect of discontinued warfarin. Our simulations were based on the recommended anticoagulant dosing regimen for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation. The effects of the combination of discontinued warfarin plus rivaroxaban were simulated using an extended version of a previously validated blood coagulation computer model. A strong synergistic effect of the two distinct mechanisms of action was observed in the first 2–3 days after warfarin discontinuation; thereafter, the effect was close to additive. Nomograms for the introduction of rivaroxaban therapy after warfarin discontinuation were derived for Caucasian and Japanese patients using safety and efficacy criteria described previously, together with the coagulation model. The findings of our study provide a mechanistic pharmacologic rationale for dosing schedules during the therapy switch from warfarin to rivaroxaban and support the switching strategies as outlined in the Summary of Product Characteristics and Prescribing Information for rivaroxaban. PMID:25426077

Computational investigation of potential dosing schedules for a switch of medication from warfarin to rivaroxaban-an oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor.

PubMed

Burghaus, Rolf; Coboeken, Katrin; Gaub, Thomas; Niederalt, Christoph; Sensse, Anke; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Weiss, Wolfgang; Mueck, Wolfgang; Tanigawa, Takahiko; Lippert, Jörg

2014-01-01

The long-lasting anticoagulant effect of vitamin K antagonists can be problematic in cases of adverse drug reactions or when patients are switched to another anticoagulant therapy. The objective of this study was to examine in silico the anticoagulant effect of rivaroxaban, an oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor, combined with the residual effect of discontinued warfarin. Our simulations were based on the recommended anticoagulant dosing regimen for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation. The effects of the combination of discontinued warfarin plus rivaroxaban were simulated using an extended version of a previously validated blood coagulation computer model. A strong synergistic effect of the two distinct mechanisms of action was observed in the first 2-3 days after warfarin discontinuation; thereafter, the effect was close to additive. Nomograms for the introduction of rivaroxaban therapy after warfarin discontinuation were derived for Caucasian and Japanese patients using safety and efficacy criteria described previously, together with the coagulation model. The findings of our study provide a mechanistic pharmacologic rationale for dosing schedules during the therapy switch from warfarin to rivaroxaban and support the switching strategies as outlined in the Summary of Product Characteristics and Prescribing Information for rivaroxaban.

A mathematical prediction model incorporating molecular subtype for risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in sentinel lymph node-positive breast cancer patients: a retrospective analysis and nomogram development.

PubMed

Wang, Na-Na; Yang, Zheng-Jun; Wang, Xue; Chen, Li-Xuan; Zhao, Hong-Meng; Cao, Wen-Feng; Zhang, Bin

2018-04-25

Molecular subtype of breast cancer is associated with sentinel lymph node status. We sought to establish a mathematical prediction model that included breast cancer molecular subtype for risk of positive non-sentinel lymph nodes in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node metastasis and further validate the model in a separate validation cohort. We reviewed the clinicopathologic data of breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node metastasis who underwent axillary lymph node dissection between June 16, 2014 and November 16, 2017 at our hospital. Sentinel lymph node biopsy was performed and patients with pathologically proven sentinel lymph node metastasis underwent axillary lymph node dissection. Independent risks for non-sentinel lymph node metastasis were assessed in a training cohort by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a mathematical prediction model. The model was further validated in a separate validation cohort, and a nomogram was developed and evaluated for diagnostic performance in predicting the risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. Moreover, we assessed the performance of five different models in predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in training cohort. Totally, 495 cases were eligible for the study, including 291 patients in the training cohort and 204 in the validation cohort. Non-sentinel lymph node metastasis was observed in 33.3% (97/291) patients in the training cohort. The AUC of MSKCC, Tenon, MDA, Ljubljana, and Louisville models in training cohort were 0.7613, 0.7142, 0.7076, 0.7483, and 0.671, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that tumor size (OR = 1.439; 95% CI 1.025-2.021; P = 0.036), sentinel lymph node macro-metastasis versus micro-metastasis (OR = 5.063; 95% CI 1.111-23.074; P = 0.036), the number of positive sentinel lymph nodes (OR = 2.583, 95% CI 1.714-3.892; P < 0.001), and the number of negative sentinel lymph nodes (OR = 0.686, 95% CI 0.575-0.817; P < 0.001) were independent statistically significant predictors of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, luminal B (OR = 3.311, 95% CI 1.593-6.884; P = 0.001) and HER2 overexpression (OR = 4.308, 95% CI 1.097-16.912; P = 0.036) were independent and statistically significant predictor of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis versus luminal A. A regression model based on the results of multivariate analysis was established to predict the risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis, which had an AUC of 0.8188. The model was validated in the validation cohort and showed excellent diagnostic performance. The mathematical prediction model that incorporates five variables including breast cancer molecular subtype demonstrates excellent diagnostic performance in assessing the risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in sentinel lymph node-positive patients. The prediction model could be of help surgeons in evaluating the risk of non-sentinel lymph node involvement for breast cancer patients; however, the model requires further validation in prospective studies.

A Clinically Meaningful Interpretation of the Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) II and III Data.

PubMed

Cronin, Paul; Dwamena, Ben A

2018-05-01

This study aimed to calculate the multiple-level likelihood ratios (LRs) and posttest probabilities for a positive, indeterminate, or negative test result for multidetector computed tomography pulmonary angiography (MDCTPA) ± computed tomography venography (CTV) and magnetic resonance pulmonary angiography (MRPA) ± magnetic resonance venography (MRV) for each clinical probability level (two-, three-, and four-level) for the nine most commonly used clinical prediction rules (CPRs) (Wells, Geneva, Miniati, and Charlotte). The study design is a review of observational studies with critical review of multiple cohort studies. The settings are acute care, emergency room care, and ambulatory care (inpatients and outpatients). Data were used to estimate pulmonary embolism (PE) pretest probability for each of the most commonly used CPRs at each probability level. Multiple-level LRs (positive, indeterminate, negative test) were generated and used to calculate posttest probabilities for MDCTPA, MDCTPA + CTV, MRPA, and MRPA + MRV from sensitivity and specificity results from Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) II and PIOPED III for each clinical probability level for each CPR. Nomograms were also created. The LRs for a positive test result were higher for MRPA compared to MDCTPA without venography (76 vs 20) and with venography (42 vs 18). LRs for a negative test result were lower for MDCTPA compared to MRPA without venography (0.18 vs 0.22) and with venography (0.12 vs 0.15). In the three-level Wells score, the pretest clinical probability of PE for a low, moderate, and high clinical probability score is 5.7, 23, and 49. The posttest probability for an initially low clinical probability PE for a positive, indeterminate, and negative test result, respectively, for MDCTPA is 54, 5 and 1; for MDCTPA + CTV is 52, 2, and 0.7; for MRPA is 82, 6, and 1; and for MRPA + MRV is 72, 3, and 1; for an initially moderate clinical probability PE for MDCTPA is 86, 22, and 5; for MDCTPA + CTV is 85, 10, and 4; for MRPA is 96, 25, and 6; and for MRPA + MRV is 93, 14, and 4; and for an initially high clinical probability of PE for MDCTPA is 95, 47, and 15; for MDCTPA + CTV is 95, 27, and 10; for MRPA is 99, 52, and 17; and for MRPA + MRV is 98, 34, and 13. For a positive test result, LRs were considerably higher for MRPA compared to MDCTPA. However, both a positive MRPA and MDCTPA have LRs >10 and therefore can confirm the presence of PE. Performing venography reduced the LR for a positive and negative test for both MDCTPA and MRPA. The nomograms give posttest probabilities for a positive, indeterminate, or negative test result for MDCTPA and MRPA (with and without venography) for each clinical probability level for each of the CPR. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting early cognitive decline in newly-diagnosed Parkinson's patients: A practical model.

PubMed

Hogue, Olivia; Fernandez, Hubert H; Floden, Darlene P

2018-06-19

To create a multivariable model to predict early cognitive decline among de novo patients with Parkinson's disease, using brief, inexpensive assessments that are easily incorporated into clinical flow. Data for 351 drug-naïve patients diagnosed with idiopathic Parkinson's disease were obtained from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. Baseline demographic, disease history, motor, and non-motor features were considered as candidate predictors. Best subsets selection was used to determine the multivariable baseline symptom profile that most accurately predicted individual cognitive decline within three years. Eleven per cent of the sample experienced cognitive decline. The final logistic regression model predicting decline included five baseline variables: verbal memory retention, right-sided bradykinesia, years of education, subjective report of cognitive impairment, and REM behavior disorder. Model discrimination was good (optimism-adjusted concordance index = .749). The associated nomogram provides a tool to determine individual patient risk of meaningful cognitive change in the early stages of the disease. Through the consideration of easily-implemented or routinely-gathered assessments, we have identified a multidimensional baseline profile and created a convenient, inexpensive tool to predict cognitive decline in the earliest stages of Parkinson's disease. The use of this tool would generate prediction at the individual level, allowing clinicians to tailor medical management for each patient and identify at-risk patients for clinical trials aimed at disease modifying therapies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dose response explorer: an integrated open-source tool for exploring and modelling radiotherapy dose volume outcome relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, I.; Suneja, G.; Lindsay, P. E.; Hope, A. J.; Alaly, J. R.; Vicic, M.; Bradley, J. D.; Apte, A.; Deasy, J. O.

2006-11-01

Radiotherapy treatment outcome models are a complicated function of treatment, clinical and biological factors. Our objective is to provide clinicians and scientists with an accurate, flexible and user-friendly software tool to explore radiotherapy outcomes data and build statistical tumour control or normal tissue complications models. The software tool, called the dose response explorer system (DREES), is based on Matlab, and uses a named-field structure array data type. DREES/Matlab in combination with another open-source tool (CERR) provides an environment for analysing treatment outcomes. DREES provides many radiotherapy outcome modelling features, including (1) fitting of analytical normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and tumour control probability (TCP) models, (2) combined modelling of multiple dose-volume variables (e.g., mean dose, max dose, etc) and clinical factors (age, gender, stage, etc) using multi-term regression modelling, (3) manual or automated selection of logistic or actuarial model variables using bootstrap statistical resampling, (4) estimation of uncertainty in model parameters, (5) performance assessment of univariate and multivariate analyses using Spearman's rank correlation and chi-square statistics, boxplots, nomograms, Kaplan-Meier survival plots, and receiver operating characteristics curves, and (6) graphical capabilities to visualize NTCP or TCP prediction versus selected variable models using various plots. DREES provides clinical researchers with a tool customized for radiotherapy outcome modelling. DREES is freely distributed. We expect to continue developing DREES based on user feedback.

Planning Risk-Based SQC Schedules for Bracketed Operation of Continuous Production Analyzers.

PubMed

Westgard, James O; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, Sten A

2018-02-01

To minimize patient risk, "bracketed" statistical quality control (SQC) is recommended in the new CLSI guidelines for SQC (C24-Ed4). Bracketed SQC requires that a QC event both precedes and follows (brackets) a group of patient samples. In optimizing a QC schedule, the frequency of QC or run size becomes an important planning consideration to maintain quality and also facilitate responsive reporting of results from continuous operation of high production analytic systems. Different plans for optimizing a bracketed SQC schedule were investigated on the basis of Parvin's model for patient risk and CLSI C24-Ed4's recommendations for establishing QC schedules. A Sigma-metric run size nomogram was used to evaluate different QC schedules for processes of different sigma performance. For high Sigma performance, an effective SQC approach is to employ a multistage QC procedure utilizing a "startup" design at the beginning of production and a "monitor" design periodically throughout production. Example QC schedules are illustrated for applications with measurement procedures having 6-σ, 5-σ, and 4-σ performance. Continuous production analyzers that demonstrate high σ performance can be effectively controlled with multistage SQC designs that employ a startup QC event followed by periodic monitoring or bracketing QC events. Such designs can be optimized to minimize the risk of harm to patients. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Du, Pengwei; Etingov, Pavel V.

The document titled “WECC Variable Generation Planning Reference Book”. This book is divided into two volumes; one is the main document (volume 1)and the other is appendices (volume 2). The main document is a collection of the best practices and the information regarding the application and impact of variables generation on power system planning. This volume (appendices) has additional information on the following topics: Probabilistic load flow problems. 2. Additional useful indices. 3. high-impact low-frequency (HILF) events. 4. Examples of wide-area nomograms. 5. Transmission line ratings, types of dynamic rating methods. 6. Relative costs per MW-km of different electric powermore » transmission technologies. 7. Ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission. 8.High voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC). 9. HVDC. 10. Rewiring of existing transmission lines. 11. High-temperature low sag (HTLS) conductors. 12. The direct method and energy functions for transient stability analysis in power systems. 13.Blackouts caused by voltage instability. 14. Algorithm for parameter continuation predictor-corrector methods. 15. Approximation techniques available for security regions. 16. Impacts of wind power on power system small signals stability. 17. FIDVR. 18. FACTS. 19. European planning standard and practices. 20. International experience in wind and solar energy sources. 21. Western Renewable Energy Zones (WREZ). 22. various energy storage technologies. 23. demand response. 24. BA consolidation and cooperation options. 25. generator power management requirements and 26. European planning guidelines.« less

[Doppler ultrasound evaluation of aortic insufficiency using half-pressure time. Absence of arterial rigidity influence].

PubMed

Kalotka-Bratek, H; Drobinski, G; Klimczak, K; Busquet, P; Fraysse, J B; Bejean-Lebuisson, A; Grosgogeat, Y

1989-02-01

In 20 patients with pure aortic regurgitation we studied the relationship between the severity of regurgitation, as assessed haemodynamically by the percentage of leakage (%L), and the half-pressure (T 1/2 P) and half-velocity (T 1/2 V) times, as obtained from doppler aortic blood velocity curves, taking into account the rigidity of the systemic vascular circuit characterized by the pressure wave propagation velocity (PWPV). The systemic arterial circuit was supple in 14 patients (PWPV less than 7.5 m/sec) and rigid in 6 patients (PWPV greater than 7.5 m/sec). The regression slopes between %L and T 1/2 P and between %L and T 1/2 V were calculated with their confidence limits in the 14 patients with supple arteries. The 6 patients with rigid arteries fitted into this nomogram, thus demonstrating that systemic arterial rigidity makes no difference in the relationship between %L and doppler indices. The half-velocity and half-pressure times measured by doppler ultrasound were acquired from a velocity signal directly determined by the aortic regurgitation, without any detectable effect of vascular circuit rigidity. Being equivalent by nature to the signal decrease time constant, they are independent of the absolute protodiastolic value of diastolic pressure gradient or blood flow velocity. For this reason these two doppler parameters are reliable to evaluate the severity of aortic regurgitation.

Incorporating uncertainty into medical decision making: an approach to unexpected test results.

PubMed

Bianchi, Matt T; Alexander, Brian M; Cash, Sydney S

2009-01-01

The utility of diagnostic tests derives from the ability to translate the population concepts of sensitivity and specificity into information that will be useful for the individual patient: the predictive value of the result. As the array of available diagnostic testing broadens, there is a temptation to de-emphasize history and physical findings and defer to the objective rigor of technology. However, diagnostic test interpretation is not always straightforward. One significant barrier to routine use of probability-based test interpretation is the uncertainty inherent in pretest probability estimation, the critical first step of Bayesian reasoning. The context in which this uncertainty presents the greatest challenge is when test results oppose clinical judgment. It is this situation when decision support would be most helpful. The authors propose a simple graphical approach that incorporates uncertainty in pretest probability and has specific application to the interpretation of unexpected results. This method quantitatively demonstrates how uncertainty in disease probability may be amplified when test results are unexpected (opposing clinical judgment), even for tests with high sensitivity and specificity. The authors provide a simple nomogram for determining whether an unexpected test result suggests that one should "switch diagnostic sides.'' This graphical framework overcomes the limitation of pretest probability uncertainty in Bayesian analysis and guides decision making when it is most challenging: interpretation of unexpected test results.

Reappraisal of fetal abdominal circumference in an Asian population: analysis of 50,131 records.

PubMed

Lu, Szu-Ching; Chang, Chiung-Hsin; Yu, Chen-Hsiang; Kang, Lin; Tsai, Pei-Ying; Chang, Fong-Ming

2008-03-01

Fetuses from different populations may show different growth patterns. In obstetrics, fetal abdominal circumference (AC) is a very useful index for assessing fetal growth. In this study, we attempted to establish the normal fetal growth curves of AC in an Asian population in South Taiwan. We reviewed our computer ultrasound database of fetal AC records from January 1991 to December 2006. During the study period of 16 years, only the fetuses examined by ultrasonography with gestational age between 14 and 41 weeks were included. We excluded extreme bilateral records after initial analysis. Eventually, 50,131 records of AC were included for final analysis. The observed gestation-specific AC values and the predicted AC values were calculated. The best-fit regression equation of AC versus gestational age is a second-order polynomial equation. In general, fetal AC values in our population showed similar patterns to those in Western populations. Besides, we established a table of the predicted AC values based on specific gestational age, including the 5 th , 10 th , 50 th , 90 th and 95 th centiles, for clinical reference. To the best of our knowledge, our series is the largest sample of AC reported in the medical literature. We believe that the gestational age-specific nomogram of fetal AC is important for further clinical assessment of fetal growth.

Pituitary iron and volume imaging in healthy controls.

PubMed

Noetzli, L J; Panigrahy, A; Hyderi, A; Dongelyan, A; Coates, T D; Wood, J C

2012-02-01

Patients with transfusional iron overload develop iron deposits in the pituitary gland, which are associated with volume loss and HH. The purpose of this study was to characterize R2 and volumetric data in a healthy population for diagnostic use in patients with transfusional iron overload. One hundred healthy controls without iron overload between the ages of 2 and 48 were recruited to have MR imaging of the brain to assess their pituitary R2 and volume. Pituitary R2 was assessed with a 8-echo spin-echo sequence, and pituitary volumes, by a 3D spoiled gradient-echo sequence with 1-mm(3) resolution. A 2-component continuous piecewise linear approximation was used for creating volumetric and R2 nomograms. Equations were generated from regression relationships for convenient z-score calculation. Pituitary R2 rose weakly with age (r(2) = 0.19, P < .0001). Anterior and total pituitary volumes increased steadily up to 18 years of age, after which volume slightly decreased. Females had larger pituitary glands, most likely representing their larger lactotroph population. From these data, a clinician can calculate the z scores for R2 and pituitary volume in patients with iron overload. Normal ranges are well-differentiated from values previously associated with endocrine disease in transfusional siderosis; this finding suggests that preclinical iron overload can be recognized and appropriately treated.

Two-Dimensional Echocardiography Estimates of Fetal Ventricular Mass throughout Gestation.

PubMed

Aye, Christina Y L; Lewandowski, Adam James; Ohuma, Eric O; Upton, Ross; Packham, Alice; Kenworthy, Yvonne; Roseman, Fenella; Norris, Tess; Molloholli, Malid; Wanyonyi, Sikolia; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Leeson, Paul

2017-08-12

Two-dimensional (2D) ultrasound quality has improved in recent years. Quantification of cardiac dimensions is important to screen and monitor certain fetal conditions. We assessed the feasibility and reproducibility of fetal ventricular measures using 2D echocardiography, reported normal ranges in our cohort, and compared estimates to other modalities. Mass and end-diastolic volume were estimated by manual contouring in the four-chamber view using TomTec Image Arena 4.6 in end diastole. Nomograms were created from smoothed centiles of measures, constructed using fractional polynomials after log transformation. The results were compared to those of previous studies using other modalities. A total of 294 scans from 146 fetuses from 15+0 to 41+6 weeks of gestation were included. Seven percent of scans were unanalysable and intraobserver variability was good (intraclass correlation coefficients for left and right ventricular mass 0.97 [0.87-0.99] and 0.99 [0.95-1.0], respectively). Mass and volume increased exponentially, showing good agreement with 3D mass estimates up to 28 weeks of gestation, after which our measurements were in better agreement with neonatal cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. There was good agreement with 4D volume estimates for the left ventricle. Current state-of-the-art 2D echocardiography platforms provide accurate, feasible, and reproducible fetal ventricular measures across gestation, and in certain circumstances may be the modality of choice. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prediction of an Optimal Dose of Aripiprazole in the Treatment of Schizophrenia From Plasma Concentrations of Aripiprazole Plus Its Active Metabolite Dehydroaripiprazole at Week 1.

PubMed

Nagai, Goyo; Mihara, Kazuo; Nakamura, Akifumi; Nemoto, Kenji; Kagawa, Shoko; Suzuki, Takeshi; Kondo, Tsuyoshi

2017-02-01

It has been suggested that a plasma trough concentration of aripiprazole plus its active metabolite, dehydroaripiprazole of 225 ng/mL is a threshold for a good therapeutic response in the treatment of acutely exacerbated patients with schizophrenia. The present study investigated whether or not an optimal dose of aripiprazole could be predicted from these concentrations at week 1. The subjects were 26 inpatients with schizophrenia, who received aripiprazole once a day for 3 weeks. The daily doses were 12 mg for the first week and 24 mg for the next 2 weeks. No other drugs except biperiden and flunitrazepam were coadministered. Blood samples were taken at weeks 1 and 3 after the treatment. Plasma concentrations of aripiprazole and dehydroaripiprazole were measured using liquid chromatography with mass-spectrometric detection. There was a significant linear relationship between the plasma concentrations of aripiprazole plus dehydroaripiprazole at weeks 1 (x) and 3 (y) (P < 0.001). Regression equation was y = 2.580x + 34.86 (R = 0.698). Based on the equation, a nomogram to estimate an optimal dose of aripiprazole could be constructed. The present study suggests that an optimal dose of aripiprazole for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia can be predicted from the plasma concentrations of the sum of the 2 compounds at week 1.

Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gillies, Robert R.; Carlson, Toby N.

1995-01-01

This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

A simple web-based risk calculator (www.anastomoticleak.com) is superior to the surgeon's estimate of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection.

PubMed

Sammour, T; Lewis, M; Thomas, M L; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W

2017-01-01

Anastomotic leak can be a devastating complication, and early prediction is difficult. The aim of this study is to prospectively validate a simple anastomotic leak risk calculator and compare its predictive value with the estimate of the primary operating surgeon. Consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency colon cancer surgery with a primary anastomosis over a 1-year period were prospectively included. A recently published anastomotic leak risk nomogram was converted to an online calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ). The calculator-derived risk of anastomotic leak and the risk estimated by the primary operating surgeon were recorded at the completion of surgery. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUROC) was performed for both risk estimates. A total of 105 patients were screened for inclusion during the study period, of whom 83 met the inclusion criteria. The overall anastomotic leak rate was 9.6%. The anastomotic leak calculator was highly predictive of anastomotic leak (AUROC 0.84, P = 0.002), whereas the surgeon estimate was not predictive (AUROC 0.40, P = 0.243). A simple anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly better at predicting anastomotic leak than the estimate of the primary surgeon. Further external validation on a larger data set is required.

Building a Decision Support System for Inpatient Admission Prediction With the Manchester Triage System and Administrative Check-in Variables.

PubMed

Zlotnik, Alexander; Alfaro, Miguel Cuchí; Pérez, María Carmen Pérez; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Martínez, Juan Manuel Montero

2016-05-01

The usage of decision support tools in emergency departments, based on predictive models, capable of estimating the probability of admission for patients in the emergency department may give nursing staff the possibility of allocating resources in advance. We present a methodology for developing and building one such system for a large specialized care hospital using a logistic regression and an artificial neural network model using nine routinely collected variables available right at the end of the triage process.A database of 255.668 triaged nonobstetric emergency department presentations from the Ramon y Cajal University Hospital of Madrid, from January 2011 to December 2012, was used to develop and test the models, with 66% of the data used for derivation and 34% for validation, with an ordered nonrandom partition. On the validation dataset areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.8568 (95% confidence interval, 0.8508-0.8583) for the logistic regression model and 0.8575 (95% confidence interval, 0.8540-0. 8610) for the artificial neural network model. χ Values for Hosmer-Lemeshow fixed "deciles of risk" were 65.32 for the logistic regression model and 17.28 for the artificial neural network model. A nomogram was generated upon the logistic regression model and an automated software decision support system with a Web interface was built based on the artificial neural network model.

Hypertension despite dehydration during severe pediatric diabetic ketoacidosis.

PubMed

Deeter, Kristina H; Roberts, Joan S; Bradford, Heidi; Richards, Todd; Shaw, Dennis; Marro, Kenneth; Chiu, Harvey; Pihoker, Catherine; Lynn, Anne; Vavilala, Monica S

2011-06-01

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) may result in both dehydration and cerebral edema but these processes may have opposing effects on blood pressure. We examined the relationship between dehydration and blood pressure in pediatric DKA. A retrospective review was performed at Seattle Children's Hospital, Seattle, WA. Participants were hospitalized children less than 18 yr. Intervention(s) or main exposure was to patients with DKA (venous pH < 7.3, glucose > 300 mg/dL, HCO(3) < 15 mEq/L, and urinary ketosis). Dehydration was calculated as percent body weight lost at admission compared to discharge. Hypertension (systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) percentile > 95%) was defined based on National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI, 2004) nomograms and hypotension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) <70 + 2 [age]. Thirty-three patients (median 10.9 yr; range 10 months to 17 yr) were included. Fifty-eight percent of patients (19/33) had hypertension on admission before treatment and 82% had hypertension during the first 6 h of admission. None had admission hypotension. Hypertension 48 h after treatment and weeks after discharge was common (28 and 19%, respectively). Based on weight gained by discharge, 27% of patients had mild, 61% had moderate, and 12% presented with severe dehydration. Despite dehydration, most children admitted with severe DKA had hypertension. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

HEMOLYSIS AND HYPERBILIRUBINEMIA IN ABO BLOOD GROUP HETEROSPECIFIC NEONATES

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Michael; Hammerman, Cathy; Vreman, Hendrik J; Wong, Ronald J; Stevenson, David K

2010-01-01

Objective We quantified hemolysis and determined the incidence of hyperbilirubinemia in direct antiglobulin titer (DAT) positive, ABO heterospecific neonates and compared variables among O-A and O-B subgroups. Study design Plasma total bilirubin (PTB) was determined predischarge and more frequently if clinically warranted, in DAT positive, blood group A or B neonates of group O mothers. Heme catabolism (and therefore bilirubin production) was indexed by blood carboxyhemoglobin corrected for inspired carbon monoxide (COHbc). Hyperbilirubinemia was defined as any PTB concentration >95th percentile on the hour-of-life-specific bilirubin nomogram. Results Of 164 neonates, 111 were O-A and 53 O-B. Overall, 85 (51.8%) developed hyperbilirubinemia, which tended to be more prevalent in the O-B than O-A neonates (62.3% vs. 46.8% respectively, p=0.053). Importantly, more O-B than O-A newborns developed hyperbilirubinemia at <24 hours (93.9% vs. 48.1%, p<0.0001). COHbc values were globally higher than our previously published newborn values. Babies who developed hyperbilirubinemia had higher COHbc values than the already high values of those non-hyperbilirubinemic, and O-B newborns tended to have higher values than O-A counterparts. Conclusions DAT positive, ABO heterospecificity is associated with increased hemolysis and a high incidence of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. O-B heterospecificity tends to confer even higher risk than O-A counterparts. PMID:20598320

Serum markers for prostate cancer: a rational approach to the literature.

PubMed

Steuber, Thomas; O'Brien, Matthew Frank; Lilja, Hans

2008-07-01

Due to its universal applicability for early detection and prediction of cancer stage and disease recurrence, widespread implementation of serum-based prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements has a significant influence on current treatment strategies for men with prostate cancer (PCa). However, over-detection and the resultant over-treatment of indolent cancers have been strongly implicated to occur. Using current recommended guidelines, the PSA test suffers from both limited sensitivity and specificity to enable efficacious population-based cancer detection. Therefore, novel biomarkers are much needed to complement PSA by enhancing its diagnostic and prognostic performance. The present literature on serum markers for PCa was reviewed. PSA derivatives, molecular PSA isoforms, and novel molecular targets in blood were summarized and weighted against their potential to improve decision-making of men with PCa. Current evidence suggests that no single analyte is likely to achieve the desired level of diagnostic and prognostic accuracy for PCa. However, the combination of biomarkers with clinical and demographic data, for example, using established standard nomograms, has produced progress toward the goal of both optimal screening and risk assessment. Furthermore, potential candidate molecular markers for PCa can be derived from high-throughput technologies. Current studies demonstrate that understanding dynamic PSA changes over time may offer diagnostic and prognostic information. Bridging the gap between basic science and clinical practice represents the main goal in the near future to enable physicians to tailor risk-adjusted screening and treatment strategies for current patients with PCa.

IGF-I replacement therapy in children with congenital IGF-I deficiency (Laron syndrome) maintains heart dimension and function.

PubMed

Scheinowitz, Mickey; Feinberg, Micha S; Laron, Zvi

2009-06-01

Untreated patients with congenital growth hormone deficiency (GHD) and IGF-I deficiency are characterized not only by dwarfism but also by acromicria and organomicria, such as the heart. We assessed cardiac dimensions and function in very young patients with Laron syndrome (LS) undergoing IGF-I replacement therapy. Two to seven echocardiographic measurements were performed during IGF-I replacement therapy on male (n=4) and female (n=4) LS -patients, mean+/-SD age of 7.1+/-3.6 years (range 1.6-11.6 years), weight 16.1+/-9.7 kg, and height 89.9+/-18.5 cm. As aged- and gender-matched controls served 44 healthy children, age: 8.7+/-5.5 years, weight: 36.1+/-22.4 kg, and height: 129.7+/-33.1cm. Data of LS patients were normalized to body surface area and compared to the control group as well as nomograms of normal echocardiographic parameters for this age group. Left ventricular diastolic and systolic dimensions (LVDD/ LVSD, mm) and LV mass (gr) were significantly smaller in boys and girls with IGF-I treated LS compared with controls while the shortening fraction (%) and intraventricular septum thickness (mm) were similar. When compared with standard values for this age group, all treated LS patients were within 1 standard deviation of the mean. IGF-I therapy of young patients with Laron syndrome maintain LV dimensions and function within the normal range of aged-matched controls.

Likelihood Ratios for Glaucoma Diagnosis Using Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Medeiros, Felipe A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Design Observational cohort study. Methods 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86μm were associated with positive LRs, i.e., LRs greater than 1; whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86μm were associated with negative LRs, i.e., LRs smaller than 1. A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of post-test probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. Conclusion The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision-making. PMID:23972303

A novel approach for estimating ingested dose associated with paracetamol overdose

PubMed Central

Zurlinden, Todd J.; Heard, Kennon

2015-01-01

Aim In cases of paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) overdose, an accurate estimate of tissue‐specific paracetamol pharmacokinetics (PK) and ingested dose can offer health care providers important information for the individualized treatment and follow‐up of affected patients. Here a novel methodology is presented to make such estimates using a standard serum paracetamol measurement and a computational framework. Methods The core component of the computational framework was a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed and evaluated using an extensive set of human PK data. Bayesian inference was used for parameter and dose estimation, allowing the incorporation of inter‐study variability, and facilitating the calculation of uncertainty in model outputs. Results Simulations of paracetamol time course concentrations in the blood were in close agreement with experimental data under a wide range of dosing conditions. Also, predictions of administered dose showed good agreement with a large collection of clinical and emergency setting PK data over a broad dose range. In addition to dose estimation, the platform was applied for the determination of optimal blood sampling times for dose reconstruction and quantitation of the potential role of paracetamol conjugate measurement on dose estimation. Conclusions Current therapies for paracetamol overdose rely on a generic methodology involving the use of a clinical nomogram. By using the computational framework developed in this study, serum sample data, and the individual patient's anthropometric and physiological information, personalized serum and liver pharmacokinetic profiles and dose estimate could be generated to help inform an individualized overdose treatment and follow‐up plan. PMID:26441245

A novel approach for estimating ingested dose associated with paracetamol overdose.

PubMed

Zurlinden, Todd J; Heard, Kennon; Reisfeld, Brad

2016-04-01

In cases of paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) overdose, an accurate estimate of tissue-specific paracetamol pharmacokinetics (PK) and ingested dose can offer health care providers important information for the individualized treatment and follow-up of affected patients. Here a novel methodology is presented to make such estimates using a standard serum paracetamol measurement and a computational framework. The core component of the computational framework was a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed and evaluated using an extensive set of human PK data. Bayesian inference was used for parameter and dose estimation, allowing the incorporation of inter-study variability, and facilitating the calculation of uncertainty in model outputs. Simulations of paracetamol time course concentrations in the blood were in close agreement with experimental data under a wide range of dosing conditions. Also, predictions of administered dose showed good agreement with a large collection of clinical and emergency setting PK data over a broad dose range. In addition to dose estimation, the platform was applied for the determination of optimal blood sampling times for dose reconstruction and quantitation of the potential role of paracetamol conjugate measurement on dose estimation. Current therapies for paracetamol overdose rely on a generic methodology involving the use of a clinical nomogram. By using the computational framework developed in this study, serum sample data, and the individual patient's anthropometric and physiological information, personalized serum and liver pharmacokinetic profiles and dose estimate could be generated to help inform an individualized overdose treatment and follow-up plan. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

A screening tool for delineating subregions of steady recharge within groundwater models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Bakker, Mark; Crompton, Becky

2014-01-01

We have developed a screening method for simplifying groundwater models by delineating areas within the domain that can be represented using steady-state groundwater recharge. The screening method is based on an analytical solution for the damping of sinusoidal infiltration variations in homogeneous soils in the vadose zone. The damping depth is defined as the depth at which the flux variation damps to 5% of the variation at the land surface. Groundwater recharge may be considered steady where the damping depth is above the depth of the water table. The analytical solution approximates the vadose zone diffusivity as constant, and we evaluated when this approximation is reasonable. We evaluated the analytical solution through comparison of the damping depth computed by the analytic solution with the damping depth simulated by a numerical model that allows variable diffusivity. This comparison showed that the screening method conservatively identifies areas of steady recharge and is more accurate when water content and diffusivity are nearly constant. Nomograms of the damping factor (the ratio of the flux amplitude at any depth to the amplitude at the land surface) and the damping depth were constructed for clay and sand for periodic variations between 1 and 365 d and flux means and amplitudes from nearly 0 to 1 × 10−3 m d−1. We applied the screening tool to Central Valley, California, to identify areas of steady recharge. A MATLAB script was developed to compute the damping factor for any soil and any sinusoidal flux variation.

Generation of “Virtual” Control Groups for Single Arm Prostate Cancer Adjuvant Trials

PubMed Central

Koziol, James A.; Chen, Xin; Xia, Xiao-Qin; Wang, Yipeng; Skarecky, Douglas; Sutton, Manuel; Sawyers, Anne; Ruckle, Herbert; Carpenter, Philip M.; Wang-Rodriguez, Jessica; Jiang, Jun; Deng, Mingsen; Pan, Cong; Zhu, Jian-guo; McLaren, Christine E.; Gurley, Michael J.; Lee, Chung; McClelland, Michael; Ahlering, Thomas; Kattan, Michael W.; Mercola, Dan

2014-01-01

It is difficult to construct a control group for trials of adjuvant therapy (Rx) of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (RP) due to ethical issues and patient acceptance. We utilized 8 curve-fitting models to estimate the time to 60%, 65%, … 95% chance of progression free survival (PFS) based on the data derived from Kattan post-RP nomogram. The 8 models were systematically applied to a training set of 153 post-RP cases without adjuvant Rx to develop 8 subsets of cases (reference case sets) whose observed PFS times were most accurately predicted by each model. To prepare a virtual control group for a single-arm adjuvant Rx trial, we first select the optimal model for the trial cases based on the minimum weighted Euclidean distance between the trial case set and the reference case set in terms of clinical features, and then compare the virtual PFS times calculated by the optimum model with the observed PFSs of the trial cases by the logrank test. The method was validated using an independent dataset of 155 post-RP patients without adjuvant Rx. We then applied the method to patients on a Phase II trial of adjuvant chemo-hormonal Rx post RP, which indicated that the adjuvant Rx is highly effective in prolonging PFS after RP in patients at high risk for prostate cancer recurrence. The method can accurately generate control groups for single-arm, post-RP adjuvant Rx trials for prostate cancer, facilitating development of new therapeutic strategies. PMID:24465467

The Effect of Altitude on Intraocular Pressure in Vitrectomized Eyes with Sulfur Hexafluoride Tamponade by the Friedenwald Method: Rabbit Animal Model

PubMed Central

Fromow-Guerra, Jans; Solís-Vivanco, Adriana; Perez-Reguera, Adriana; Quiroz-Mercado, Hugo; Meza-de Regil, Armando; Papa-Oliva, Gabriela; Morales-Cantón, Virgilio

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the change in intraocular pressure after a road trip, in eyes with different levels of filling with gas tamponade. Five rabbit eyes were subject to pars plana vitrectomy and gas tamponade (filling percentage: 25%, 50%, and 100% of nonexpansile SF6, 100% saline solution, and 100% room air). A sixth eye was injected with 0.35 cc of undiluted SF6 without vitrectomy. Guided by global positioning system, they were driven to the highest point of the highway connecting Mexico City with Puebla city and back, stopping every 300 m to assess intraocular pressure. The rabbit's scleral rigidity and estimation for human eyes were done by using the Friedenwald nomogram. Maximum altitude was 3209 m (Δ949 m). There were significant differences in intraocular pressure on the rabbit eyes filled with SF6 at 100%, 50%, 25%, and 100% room air. Per every 100 m of altitude rise, the intraocular pressure increased by 1.53, 1.0046, 0.971, and 0.97 mmHg, respectively. Using the human Friedenwald rigidity coefficient, the human eye estimate for intraocular pressure change was 2.1, 1.8, 1.4, and 1.1 mmHg per every 100 m of attitude rise. Altitude changes have a significant impact on intraocular pressure. The final effect depends on the percentage of vitreous cavity fill and scleral rigidity. PMID:27957500

The Effect of Altitude on Intraocular Pressure in Vitrectomized Eyes with Sulfur Hexafluoride Tamponade by the Friedenwald Method: Rabbit Animal Model.

PubMed

Fromow-Guerra, Jans; Solís-Vivanco, Adriana; Velez-Montoya, Raul; Perez-Reguera, Adriana; Quiroz-Mercado, Hugo; Meza-de Regil, Armando; Papa-Oliva, Gabriela; Morales-Cantón, Virgilio

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the change in intraocular pressure after a road trip, in eyes with different levels of filling with gas tamponade. Five rabbit eyes were subject to pars plana vitrectomy and gas tamponade (filling percentage: 25%, 50%, and 100% of nonexpansile SF 6 , 100% saline solution, and 100% room air). A sixth eye was injected with 0.35 cc of undiluted SF 6 without vitrectomy. Guided by global positioning system, they were driven to the highest point of the highway connecting Mexico City with Puebla city and back, stopping every 300 m to assess intraocular pressure. The rabbit's scleral rigidity and estimation for human eyes were done by using the Friedenwald nomogram. Maximum altitude was 3209 m (Δ949 m). There were significant differences in intraocular pressure on the rabbit eyes filled with SF 6 at 100%, 50%, 25%, and 100% room air. Per every 100 m of altitude rise, the intraocular pressure increased by 1.53, 1.0046, 0.971, and 0.97 mmHg, respectively. Using the human Friedenwald rigidity coefficient, the human eye estimate for intraocular pressure change was 2.1, 1.8, 1.4, and 1.1 mmHg per every 100 m of attitude rise. Altitude changes have a significant impact on intraocular pressure. The final effect depends on the percentage of vitreous cavity fill and scleral rigidity.

Estimating ocean-air heat fluxes during cold air outbreaks by satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S. H.; Atlas, D.

1981-01-01

Nomograms of mean column heating due to surface sensible and latent heat fluxes were developed. Mean sensible heating of the cloud free region is related to the cloud free path (CFP, the distance from the shore to the first cloud formation) and the difference between land air and sea surface temperatures, theta sub 1 and theta sub 0, respectively. Mean latent heating is related to the CFP and the difference between land air and sea surface humidities q sub 1 and q sub 0 respectively. Results are also applicable to any path within the cloud free region. Corresponding heat fluxes may be obtained by multiplying the mean heating by the mean wind speed in the boundary layer. The sensible heating estimated by the present method is found to be in good agreement with that computed from the bulk transfer formula. The sensitivity of the solutions to the variations in the initial coastal soundings and large scale subsidence is also investigated. The results are not sensitive to divergence but are affected by the initial lapse rate of potential temperature; the greater the stability, the smaller the heating, other things being equal. Unless one knows the lapse rate at the shore, this requires another independent measurement. For this purpose the downwind slope of the square of the boundary layer height is used, the mean value of which is also directly proportional to the mean sensible heating. The height of the boundary layer should be measurable by future spaceborn lidar systems.

Maternal anaemia as an indicator for monitoring malaria control in pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Savage, E J; Msyamboza, K; Gies, S; D'Alessandro, U; Brabin, B J

2007-10-01

Malarial anaemia is a major problem in many developing countries and often occurs more frequently in first pregnancies, as primigravidae are more susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum malaria and are at excess risk of malarial anaemia. To analyse the excess risk of anaemia in primigravidae as a potential indicator of malaria control and exposure in pregnant women living in sub-Saharan Africa. The sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for anaemia in first compared with later pregnancies are calculated for 27 studies from malarious and 7 studies from nonmalarious areas. Surveys of pregnancy anaemia reported for highly malarious and nonmalarious areas. In malarious areas, the weighted odds ratio for excess anaemia (haemoglobin [Hb] <11 g/dl) in primigravidae compared with multigravidae for all studies was 1.34 (95% CI 1.14-1.58). At an Hb cutoff below 8 g/dl, the weighted odds ratio was 1.79 (95% CI 1.52-2.10). In nonmalarious areas, there was no increased risk of anaemia in primigravidae with Hb below 11 g/dl (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.63-1.90) or below 8 g/dl (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.51-1.28). In view of the consistency of results across highly malarious areas compared with nonmalarious areas, maternal anaemia has the potential to be used for surveillance of malaria control in pregnancy. Based on the analysis, an anaemia nomogram is developed for use as a surveillance indicator in malarious areas in sub-Saharan Africa.

A clinicopathologic prediction model for postoperative recurrence in stage Ia non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Sun, Yihua; Xiang, Jiaqing; Zhang, Yawei; Hu, Hong; Chen, Haiquan

2014-10-01

Controversy remains over the appropriate postoperative management for patients with stage Ia non-small cell lung cancer who underwent complete surgical resection as a result of a heterogeneous prognosis. We aimed to identify the predictive factors for recurrence in these patients to aid in the decision making. We reviewed 344 patients with stage Ia non-small cell lung cancer to analyze the associations between recurrence-free survival and the following clinicopathologic variables: age, gender, smoking history, family history, preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, type of surgical resection, tumor location, tumor histology, lymphovascular invasion, tumor differentiation, and pathologic T status. Cox multivariate survival analysis revealed that central tumor location (P=.019), stage T1b (P=.006), high histologic grade (including large cell carcinoma, solid predominant, micropapillary predominant, and invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma, P=.007), poor differentiation (P=.022), and lymphovascular invasion (P=.035) were independently associated with recurrence-free survival. A nomogram for predicting the probability of 3-year recurrence-free survival was developed using the 5 variables. This model shows good calibration, reasonable discrimination (concordance index=0.733), and small overfitting (2.6%) demonstrated by bootstrapping. We developed a clinicopathologic prediction model for postoperative recurrence in stage Ia non-small cell lung cancer. This model can help with the selection of appropriate postoperative therapeutic strategies for these patients. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generation of "virtual" control groups for single arm prostate cancer adjuvant trials.

PubMed

Jia, Zhenyu; Lilly, Michael B; Koziol, James A; Chen, Xin; Xia, Xiao-Qin; Wang, Yipeng; Skarecky, Douglas; Sutton, Manuel; Sawyers, Anne; Ruckle, Herbert; Carpenter, Philip M; Wang-Rodriguez, Jessica; Jiang, Jun; Deng, Mingsen; Pan, Cong; Zhu, Jian-Guo; McLaren, Christine E; Gurley, Michael J; Lee, Chung; McClelland, Michael; Ahlering, Thomas; Kattan, Michael W; Mercola, Dan

2014-01-01

It is difficult to construct a control group for trials of adjuvant therapy (Rx) of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (RP) due to ethical issues and patient acceptance. We utilized 8 curve-fitting models to estimate the time to 60%, 65%, … 95% chance of progression free survival (PFS) based on the data derived from Kattan post-RP nomogram. The 8 models were systematically applied to a training set of 153 post-RP cases without adjuvant Rx to develop 8 subsets of cases (reference case sets) whose observed PFS times were most accurately predicted by each model. To prepare a virtual control group for a single-arm adjuvant Rx trial, we first select the optimal model for the trial cases based on the minimum weighted Euclidean distance between the trial case set and the reference case set in terms of clinical features, and then compare the virtual PFS times calculated by the optimum model with the observed PFSs of the trial cases by the logrank test. The method was validated using an independent dataset of 155 post-RP patients without adjuvant Rx. We then applied the method to patients on a Phase II trial of adjuvant chemo-hormonal Rx post RP, which indicated that the adjuvant Rx is highly effective in prolonging PFS after RP in patients at high risk for prostate cancer recurrence. The method can accurately generate control groups for single-arm, post-RP adjuvant Rx trials for prostate cancer, facilitating development of new therapeutic strategies.

[Pregnant women's food safety and nutritional status in Cartagena, Colombia 2011].

PubMed

López-Sáleme, Rossana; Díaz-Montes, Carmen E; Bravo-Aljuriz, Leidy; Londoño-Hio, Nataly P; Salguedo-Pájaro, Maireng del Carmen; Camargo-Marín, Casandra C; Osorio-Espitia, Eider

2012-01-01

Establishing an association between food safety and nutritional status in pregnant women in Cartagena. This was a cross-sectional study, using a sample of 413 pregnant women living in urban areas who were affiliated to healthcare-providing companies in Cartagena. A 95 % confidence level, 5 % error and 0.41 prevalence were used. they were stratified by proportional allocation; nutritional status was identified by anthropometric indicators plotted on a Rosso-Mardones nomogram and food safety was determined by a national survey of the situation. Stata 9.2 statistical software was used for a descriptive analysis of the data using frequencies, percentages, averages and standard deviations. The odds ratio (OR)* and p <0.05 significance level were estimated in bivariate analysis. Mean age was 24.3 years-old, 72.2 % were living with a partner and 52 % belonged to stratum 1; it was determined that 70.2 % had food safety. Regarding nutritional status, it was observed that 42 % had maintained appropriate weight during pregnancy. Food safety was not associated with nutritional status (OR 0.8; 0.5-1.3 95 %CI). A high percentage of pregnant women had altered nutritional status, tending towards deficit or towards increase reported as having food safety. This may have been because this study assessed food safety in relation to even though the pregnant women may have had food available, this did not guarantee that they consumed it in suitable quantities and/or quality, such aspects not having been evaluated in this study.

Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score.

PubMed

Brasil, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do; Xavier, Sergio Salles; Holanda, Marcelo Teixeira; Hasslocher-Moreno, Alejandro Marcel; Braga, José Ueleres

2016-01-01

With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

The PAR index for evaluation of treatment outcomes in orthodontics: a clinical audit of 50 cases.

PubMed

Fadiga, Mohamed Siddick; Diouf, Joseph Samba; Diop Ba, Khady; Gueye, Idrissa; Ngom, Papa Ibrahima; Diagne, Falou

2014-03-01

In the context of this study, a clinical audit of cases treated by a single orthodontist was carried out to illustrate one practical application of the PAR index. Fifty pairs of dental casts taken from the patient group before and at the end of orthodontic treatment were evaluated by an orthodontist trained in the use of the PAR index. This evaluation shows that the average overall PAR score for the subjects included in the study fell from an initial value of 25.64 ± 11.73 points to 1.78 ± 2.79 points at the end of orthodontic treatment. The average reduction attributable to orthodontic treatment was 23.86 ± 0.95 points, for an average percentage reduction of 93.36 ± 9.02%. When cases were classified according to the degree of improvement suggested by the nomogram of the PAR index, 23 (46%) were in the "Improved" category after treatment, and 27 cases (54%) in the "Greatly improved" category. This adds up to a total of 100% in these two categories, with none in the "No better" or "Worse" categories. It should be recalled that a high standard of orthodontic treatment is considered to be reached when the average percentage reduction of the PAR score exceeds 70% and when the number of cases in the "Worse or no better" category is below 5%. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Ex vivo metabolic fingerprinting identifies biomarkers predictive of prostate cancer recurrence following radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Braadland, Peder R; Giskeødegård, Guro; Sandsmark, Elise; Bertilsson, Helena; Euceda, Leslie R; Hansen, Ailin F; Guldvik, Ingrid J; Selnæs, Kirsten M; Grytli, Helene H; Katz, Betina; Svindland, Aud; Bathen, Tone F; Eri, Lars M; Nygård, Ståle; Berge, Viktor; Taskén, Kristin A; Tessem, May-Britt

2017-11-21

Robust biomarkers that identify prostate cancer patients with high risk of recurrence will improve personalised cancer care. In this study, we investigated whether tissue metabolites detectable by high-resolution magic angle spinning magnetic resonance spectroscopy (HR-MAS MRS) were associated with recurrence following radical prostatectomy. We performed a retrospective ex vivo study using HR-MAS MRS on tissue samples from 110 radical prostatectomy specimens obtained from three different Norwegian cohorts collected between 2002 and 2010. At the time of analysis, 50 patients had experienced prostate cancer recurrence. Associations between metabolites, clinicopathological variables, and recurrence-free survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression modelling, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and concordance index (C-index). High intratumoural spermine and citrate concentrations were associated with longer recurrence-free survival, whereas high (total-choline+creatine)/spermine (tChoCre/Spm) and higher (total-choline+creatine)/citrate (tChoCre/Cit) ratios were associated with shorter time to recurrence. Spermine concentration and tChoCre/Spm were independently associated with recurrence in multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling after adjusting for clinically relevant risk factors (C-index: 0.769; HR: 0.72; P=0.016 and C-index: 0.765; HR: 1.43; P=0.014, respectively). Spermine concentration and tChoCre/Spm ratio in prostatectomy specimens were independent prognostic markers of recurrence. These metabolites can be noninvasively measured in vivo and may thus offer predictive value to establish preoperative risk assessment nomograms.

Evacuated blood-collection tubes for haematological tests - a quality evaluation prior to their intended use for specimen collection.

PubMed

Gros, Nataša

2013-05-01

An inappropriate anticoagulant concentration in a blood sample can cause cell shrinkage and affect the haematocrit and mean corpuscular volume (MCV). In evacuated blood-collection tubes there are two parameters affecting the quality of the product: the anticoagulant amount introduced into the tube during its production and the internal under-pressure at the instant of the blood-specimen collection affecting the draw-volume. No testing procedures that would give an insight into the anticoagulant concentration that can be expected for blood samples after specimen collection have been available up until now. The methodology suggested here combines the draw-volume test performed with deionised water using a laboratory made measuring device, and a conductivity measurement. The corrections taking into account the air pressure and ambient temperature provide an insight into the anticoagulant concentration that can be expected for blood samples. Results presented in the form of a nomogram facilitate the routine use of the suggested methodology. Our 338-day study confirmed significant differences and variations in the quality and the anticoagulant concentrations of the K₃EDTA and K2EDTA tubes of different producers and identified different examples of non-compliance with the norms during the shelf life of the tubes. The quality evaluation of the evacuated blood-collection tubes prior to their intended use as suggested here can, in everyday laboratory practice, ensure that the tubes are used only if, and only until, their quality is adequate.

Predicting severe hematologic toxicity from extended-field chemoradiation of para-aortic nodal metastases from cervical cancer.

PubMed

Yan, Kevin; Ramirez, Ezequiel; Xie, Xian-Jin; Gu, Xuejun; Xi, Yin; Albuquerque, Kevin

The purpose of this study was to determine factors predictive for severe hematologic toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer patients with para-aortic lymph node metastasis treated with concurrent cisplatin chemoradiation to an extended field (EFCRT). Thirty-eight patients with cervical cancer and para-aortic lymph node metastasis who underwent EFCRT were analyzed. Active bone marrow was defined as the region within irradiated total bone marrow (BM TOT ) with a standard uptake value on 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography greater than the mean standard uptake value for BM TOT . Serial weekly blood counts from the beginning to the end of radiation treatment were evaluated for HT using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0. Nineteen patients had grade 3 or higher hematologic toxicity (HT3+), not including lymphocyte toxicity. Obese patients (n = 12) were less likely to get HT3+ (P = .03) despite getting equivalent doses of chemotherapy. Volumes of BM TOT and active bone marrow receiving doses of 20, 30, and 45 Gy and body mass index significantly predicted HT3+. Patients who had HT3+ had prolonged treatment time (62 vs 53 days, P < .001). For patients receiving EFCRT, bone marrow irradiation parameters and patient body mass index were associated with HT3+. A simplified nomogram has been created to predict HT3+ in these patients, allowing the potential to explore bone marrow-sparing delivery techniques. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can a national dataset generate a nomogram for necrotizing enterocolitis onset?

PubMed

Gordon, P V; Clark, R; Swanson, J R; Spitzer, A

2014-10-01

Mother's own milk and donor human milk use is increasing as a means of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) prevention. Early onset of enteral feeding has been associated with improvement of many outcomes but has not been shown to reduce the incidence of NEC. Better definition of the window of risk for NEC by gestational strata should improve resource management with respect to donor human milk and enhance our understanding of NEC timing and pathogenesis. Our objective was to establish a NEC dataset of sufficient size and quality, then build a generalizable model of NEC onset from the dataset across gestational strata. We used de-identified data from the Pediatrix national dataset and filtered out all diagnostic confounders that could be identified by either specific diagnoses or logical exclusions (example dual diagnoses), with a specific focus on NEC and spontaneous intestinal perforation (SIP) as the outcomes of interest. The median day of onset was plotted against the gestational age for each of these diagnoses and analyzed for similarities and differences in the day of diagnosis. Onset time of medical NEC was inversely proportional to gestation in a linear relationship across all gestational ages. We found the medical NEC dataset displayed characteristics most consistent with a homogeneous disease entity, whereas there was a skew towards early presentation in the youngest gestation groups of surgical NEC (suggesting probable SIP contamination). Our national dataset demonstrates that NEC onset occurs in an inverse stereotypic, linear relationship with gestational age at birth. Medical NEC is the most reliable sub-cohort for the purpose of determining the temporal window of NEC risk.

Embedding measurement within existing computerized data systems: scaling clinical laboratory and medical records heart failure data to predict ICU admission.

PubMed

Fisher, William P; Burton, Elizabeth C

2010-01-01

This study employs existing data sources to develop a new measure of intensive care unit (ICU) admission risk for heart failure patients. Outcome measures were constructed from laboratory, accounting, and medical record data for 973 adult inpatients with primary or secondary heart failure. Several scoring interpretations of the laboratory indicators were evaluated relative to their measurement and predictive properties. Cases were restricted to tests within first lab draw that included at least 15 indicators. After optimizing the original clinical observations, a satisfactory heart failure severity scale was calibrated on a 0-1000 continuum. Patients with unadjusted CHF severity measures of 550 or less were 2.7 times more likely to be admitted to the ICU than those with higher measures. Patients with low HF severity measures (550 or less) adjusted for demographic and diagnostic risk factors are about six times more likely to be admitted to the ICU than those with higher adjusted measures. A nomogram facilitates routine clinical application. Existing computerized data systems could be programmed to automatically structure clinical laboratory reports using the results of studies like this one to reduce data volume with no loss of information, make laboratory results more meaningful to clinical end users, improve the quality of care, reduce errors and unneeded tests, prevent unnecessary ICU admissions, lower costs, and improve patient satisfaction. Existing data typically examined piecemeal form a coherent scale measuring heart failure severity sensitive to increased likelihood of ICU admission. Marked improvements in ROC curves were found for the aggregate measures relative to individual clinical indicators.

Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Medeiros, Felipe A

2013-11-01

To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Observational cohort study. A total of 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86 μm were associated with positive likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios greater than 1), whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86 μm were associated with negative likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios smaller than 1). A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of posttest probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of Web tools to predict axillary lymph node metastasis and pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Masahiro; Takada, Masahiro; Toi, Masakazu

2014-12-09

Nomograms are a standard computational tool to predict the likelihood of an outcome using multiple available patient features. We have developed a more powerful data mining methodology, to predict axillary lymph node (AxLN) metastasis and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in primary breast cancer patients. We developed websites to use these tools. The tools calculate the probability of AxLN metastasis (AxLN model) and pathological complete response to NAC (NAC model). As a calculation algorithm, we employed a decision tree-based prediction model known as the alternative decision tree (ADTree), which is an analog development of if-then type decision trees. An ensemble technique was used to combine multiple ADTree predictions, resulting in higher generalization abilities and robustness against missing values. The AxLN model was developed with training datasets (n=148) and test datasets (n=143), and validated using an independent cohort (n=174), yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.768. The NAC model was developed and validated with n=150 and n=173 datasets from a randomized controlled trial, yielding an AUC of 0.787. AxLN and NAC models require users to input up to 17 and 16 variables, respectively. These include pathological features, including human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and imaging findings. Each input variable has an option of "unknown," to facilitate prediction for cases with missing values. The websites developed facilitate the use of these tools, and serve as a database for accumulating new datasets.

[Three Years Follow-up Study after Refractive Small Incision Lenticule Extraction (SMILE) Using 500 kHz Femtosecond Laser in "Fast Mode"].

PubMed

Messerschmidt-Roth, A; Sekundo, W; Lazaridis, A; Schulze, S

2017-01-01

Background   The aim of this clinical trial was to check the results of laser built-in settings 3 years after ReLEx SMILE for moderate and high myopia in unselected "real life" patients. Patients and Methods   50 myopic eyes of 27 patients were called in for examination after 3 years. 25 of these eyes with a preoperative myopia under - 6D comprised the "moderate myopia subgroup". All surgeries were performed with the 500 kHz VisuMax® femtosecond laser (Carl Zeiss Meditec AG, Jena) in the "fast mode" setting. Results   The spherical equivalent (SE) of the entire group changed from - 6.18 D (± 1.91) prior to surgery to - 0.18 D (± 0.39) 3 years later. The preoperative SE in the moderate myopia subgroup changed from - 4.71 D (± 0.94) to - 0.04 D (± 0.23). 14 % of 50 eyes gained one line and 22 % lost one line of CDVA. The regression between month 3 and 36 was 0.07D for the entire group and 0.06 D for the moderate myopia subgroup. There were no late side effects. Primary undercorrection was predominantly seen in eyes over - 6 D. Conclusion   ReLEx SMILE shows remarkable stability over the entire range of myopias after 3 years, however primary undercorrection occurs predominantly in eyes of - 6.0 D, which necessitates nomogram adjustment. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Metabolomic signatures of aggressive prostate cancer.

PubMed

McDunn, Jonathan E; Li, Zhen; Adam, Klaus-Peter; Neri, Bruce P; Wolfert, Robert L; Milburn, Michael V; Lotan, Yair; Wheeler, Thomas M

2013-10-01

Current diagnostic techniques have increased the detection of prostate cancer; however, these tools inadequately stratify patients to minimize mortality. Recent studies have identified a biochemical signature of prostate cancer metastasis, including increased sarcosine abundance. This study examined the association of tissue metabolites with other clinically significant findings. A state of the art metabolomics platform analyzed prostatectomy tissues (331 prostate tumor, 178 cancer-free prostate tissues) from two independent sites. Biochemicals were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Statistical analyses identified metabolites associated with cancer aggressiveness: Gleason score, extracapsular extension, and seminal vesicle and lymph node involvement. Prostate tumors had significantly altered metabolite profiles compared to cancer-free prostate tissues, including biochemicals associated with cell growth, energetics, stress, and loss of prostate-specific biochemistry. Many metabolites were further associated with clinical findings of aggressive disease. Aggressiveness-associated metabolites stratified prostate tumor tissues with high abundances of compounds associated with normal prostate function (e.g., citrate and polyamines) from more clinically advanced prostate tumors. These aggressive prostate tumors were further subdivided by abundance profiles of metabolites including NAD+ and kynurenine. When added to multiparametric nomograms, metabolites improved prediction of organ confinement (AUROC from 0.53 to 0.62) and 5-year recurrence (AUROC from 0.53 to 0.64). These findings support and extend earlier metabolomic studies in prostate cancer and studies where metabolic enzymes have been associated with carcinogenesis and/or outcome. Furthermore, these data suggest that panels of analytes may be valuable to translate metabolomic findings to clinically useful diagnostic tests. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prostate Health Index improves multivariable risk prediction of aggressive prostate cancer.

PubMed

Loeb, Stacy; Shin, Sanghyuk S; Broyles, Dennis L; Wei, John T; Sanda, Martin; Klee, George; Partin, Alan W; Sokoll, Lori; Chan, Daniel W; Bangma, Chris H; van Schaik, Ron H N; Slawin, Kevin M; Marks, Leonard S; Catalona, William J

2017-07-01

To examine the use of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as a continuous variable in multivariable risk assessment for aggressive prostate cancer in a large multicentre US study. The study population included 728 men, with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 2-10 ng/mL and a negative digital rectal examination, enrolled in a prospective, multi-site early detection trial. The primary endpoint was aggressive prostate cancer, defined as biopsy Gleason score ≥7. First, we evaluated whether the addition of PHI improves the performance of currently available risk calculators (the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial [PCPT] and European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC] risk calculators). We also designed and internally validated a new PHI-based multivariable predictive model, and created a nomogram. Of 728 men undergoing biopsy, 118 (16.2%) had aggressive prostate cancer. The PHI predicted the risk of aggressive prostate cancer across the spectrum of values. Adding PHI significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators for aggressive disease. A new model was created using age, previous biopsy, prostate volume, PSA and PHI, with an area under the curve of 0.746. The bootstrap-corrected model showed good calibration with observed risk for aggressive prostate cancer and had net benefit on decision-curve analysis. Using PHI as part of multivariable risk assessment leads to a significant improvement in the detection of aggressive prostate cancer, potentially reducing harms from unnecessary prostate biopsy and overdiagnosis. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antibiotic-Induced Rash in Patients With Infectious Mononucleosis.

PubMed

Thompson, Dennis F; Ramos, Carroll L

2017-02-01

To provide an extensive review of case reports, epidemiological data, and the underlying mechanism of antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with concurrent infectious mononucleosis (IM). A MEDLINE literature search inclusive of the dates 1946 to June 2016 was performed using the search terms anti-bacterial agents and infectious mononucleosis. EMBASE (1980 to June 2016) was searched using the terms mononucleosis and antibiotic agent and drug eruption. References of all relevant articles were reviewed for additional citations and information. We selected English-language, primary literature, review articles, and mechanistic articles that addressed antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with concurrent IM. We assessed all case reports available for causality utilizing a modified Naranjo nomogram specifically designed for this subject. We assembled the available epidemiological data into tables to identify trends in incidence rates over the years. We identified 17 case reports of antibiotic-associated rash in patients with IM. The median Naranjo score was 6 (range = 1 to 8). The top 3 reported drugs were ampicillin, azithromycin, and amoxicillin. Incidence of this adverse effect was higher in the 1960s (55.6%, 45%, and 33%) than in 2013 (33% and 15%). The mechanism most commonly proposed is a transient virus-mediated immune alteration that sets the stage for loss of antigenic tolerance and the development of a reversible, delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction to the antibiotic. A reassessment of the long-held belief of the high incidence (80%-100%) of antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with IM seems prudent. Additional studies will be necessary to clarify this issue.

Acute acetaminophen overdose is associated with dose-dependent hypokalaemia: a prospective study of 331 patients.

PubMed

Waring, W Stephen; Stephen, Alexandra F L; Malkowska, Aleks M; Robinson, Oliver D G

2008-03-01

Hypokalaemia is a recognized complication of acute acetaminophen overdose. It is unclear whether this might be a pharmacological effect of acetaminophen, or due to association with confounding factors. The present study sought to better characterize the relationship between acetaminophen concentrations and risk of hypokalaemia. A prospective study of patients received N-acetylcysteine treatment within 15 hr of acute acetaminophen ingestion. Serum potassium concentrations were determined before and after N-acetylcysteine. Serum acetaminophen concentrations were used to indicate overall drug exposure by comparison to the Rumack-Matthew nomogram. Hypokalaemia was pre-defined by serum concentrations <3.5 mmol/l, and groups compared by Mann-Whitney tests. There were 331 patients. Median (95% confidence interval) fall in serum potassium concentration after N-acetylcysteine was 0.05 mmol/l (-0.11-0.30 mmol/l) if acetaminophen concentrations were below the 'high-risk' treatment line, 0.30 mmol/l (0.17-0.40 mmol/l) if between the 'high-risk' and 'normal' treatment lines (P = 0.0358), and 0.40 mmol/l (0.20-0.50 mmol/l) if above the 'normal' treatment line (P = 0.0136). A receiver operating characteristic showed that high acetaminophen concentrations were predictive of hypokalaemia (P = 0.0001 versus zero discriminatory line), and 4 hr acetaminophen concentration >156 mmol/l gave 81% sensitivity and 48% specificity. The risk of hypokalaemia after acute acetaminophen overdose depends on the extent of acetaminophen exposure, irrespective of N-acetylcysteine administration and independent of whether vomiting occurred. Acetaminophen appears to cause concentration-dependent hypokalaemia after overdose, and the pharmacological basis requires further consideration.

External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. Methods Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROCAUC) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability. Results Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROCAUC was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROCAUC for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate. Conclusions We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction. PMID:23294733

Nomogram predicting response after chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer using sequential PETCT imaging: a multicentric prospective study with external validation.

PubMed

van Stiphout, Ruud G P M; Valentini, Vincenzo; Buijsen, Jeroen; Lammering, Guido; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Soest, Johan; Leccisotti, Lucia; Giordano, Alessandro; Gambacorta, Maria A; Dekker, Andre; Lambin, Philippe

2014-11-01

To develop and externally validate a predictive model for pathologic complete response (pCR) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) based on clinical features and early sequential (18)F-FDG PETCT imaging. Prospective data (i.a. THUNDER trial) were used to train (N=112, MAASTRO Clinic) and validate (N=78, Università Cattolica del S. Cuore) the model for pCR (ypT0N0). All patients received long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Clinical parameters were age, gender, clinical tumour (cT) stage and clinical nodal (cN) stage. PET parameters were SUVmax, SUVmean, metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and maximal tumour diameter, for which response indices between pre-treatment and intermediate scan were calculated. Using multivariate logistic regression, three probability groups for pCR were defined. The pCR rates were 21.4% (training) and 23.1% (validation). The selected predictive features for pCR were cT-stage, cN-stage, response index of SUVmean and maximal tumour diameter during treatment. The models' performances (AUC) were 0.78 (training) and 0.70 (validation). The high probability group for pCR resulted in 100% correct predictions for training and 67% for validation. The model is available on the website www.predictcancer.org. The developed predictive model for pCR is accurate and externally validated. This model may assist in treatment decisions during CRT to select complete responders for a wait-and-see policy, good responders for extra RT boost and bad responders for additional chemotherapy. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[The biological effects of a nuclear explosion. Introduction of a new system on a colorimetric scale (black, grey, red, orange, yellow and white zone) to estimate the effects of fall-out on civilian populations].

PubMed

Nacci, G

2002-08-01

Following September 11 the eventuality of terrorist attacks using bags containing nuclear devices is considered possible in western cities like New York, London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Moscow etc. However, with a modern Civil Defence programme the effects of a catastrophe of this nature can be partially limited, at least as far as Fall-out is concerned. The present paper explains the medical reasons for building anti-fall-out shelters for the larger part of western populations: from the USA to Russia. The paper also sets out a new method for classifying levels of radioactive Fall-out based on a scale of colours (black, grey, red, orange, yellow and white) whatever kind of radioactivity is involved (total gamma levels, Cesium 137 levels, Strontium 90 levels). The arrival times for fall-out in each area of the scale are fixed, whatever the energy of the explosion and the speed of the wind might be. The radioactive decay in each area of the scale, from the time of arrival of the fall-out is described with precision. Also described are the acute radiation syndrome, tumours, miscarriages and genetic diseases. A nomogram is attached for civil defence purposes showing the leeward extension of these areas, easily measurable in just a few minutes, if four parameters are known: ground zero (locality) of the explosion, the energy of the explosion, the direction of the wind and the speed of the wind.

Effect of caffeic acid phenethyl ester on the regression of endometrial explants in an experimental rat model.

PubMed

Güney, Mehmet; Nasir, Serdar; Oral, Baha; Karahan, Nermin; Mungan, Tamer

2007-04-01

The objective of this study is to determine the effects of antioxidant and anti-inflammatory caffeic acid phenethyl ester (CAPE) on experimental endometriosis, peritoneal superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activities, and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels in the rat endometriosis model. Thirty rats with experimentally induced endometriosis were randomly divided into 2 groups and treated for 4 weeks with intraperitoneal CAPE (CAPE-treated group; 10 micromol/kg/d, n = 13) or vehicle (control group; n = 13). The volume and weight changes of the implants were calculated. Immunohistochemical and histologic examinations of endometriotic explants by semiquantitative analysis and measurements of peritoneal SOD, CAT, and MDA levels were made. Following 4 weeks of treatment with CAPE, there were significant differences in posttreatment spherical volumes (37.4 +/- 14.7 mm(3) vs 147.5 +/- 41.2 mm(3)) and explant weights (49.1 +/- 28.5 mg vs 158.9 +/- 50.3 mg) between the CAPE-treated groups and controls. The mean evaluation nomogram levels in glandular epithelium for COX-2 positivity by scoring system were 2.1 +/- 0.3 in the CAPE-treated group and 3.9 +/- 0.3 in the control group. In the CAPE-treated group, peritoneal levels of MDA and activities of SOD and CAT significantly decreased when compared with the control group (P < .01). Histologic analysis of the explants demonstrated mostly atrophy and regression in the treatment group, and semiquantitative analysis showed significantly lower scores in rats treated with CAPE compared with the control group. CAPE appeared to cause regression of experimental endometriosis.

A contemporary review of management and prognostic factors of upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

PubMed

Leow, Jeffrey J; Orsola, Anna; Chang, Steven L; Bellmunt, Joaquim

2015-04-01

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) accounts for <5% of all urothelial cancers. Although the main treatment is radical nephroureterectomy (NU), oncologic outcomes are not comparable to lower tract urothelial cancers. Identifying prognostic factors can help guide management and potentially improve outcomes. This article systematically reviews current literature on prognostic factors and management options for UTUC. A comprehensive literature search was performed to identify all studies examining prognostic factors and management options for UTUC. The search included the Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases, and abstracts from the American Society of Clinical Oncology meetings up to November 2014. An updated systematic review was performed. Preoperative prognostic factors for UTUC patients include age, race, performance status, obesity, smoking status, elevated fibrinogen levels, hydronephrosis, tumor size, multi-focality, location, clinical grade and previous/synchronous bladder cancer. Postoperative variables include tumor stage/grade, multifocality, nodal involvement, lympho-vascular invasion, initial ureteral location, necrosis, sessile architecture, variant histologies and presence of tissue ALDH1 and SOX2. Curative treatment of choice is NU, with lymphadenectomy conferring survival benefits. Minimally invasive surgery has equivalent oncologic and better peri-operative outcomes compared to open surgery. Conservative therapy includes adjuvant BCG and intravesical mitomycin C. Two randomized trials investigating postoperative instillation of mitomycin C suggest bladder recurrence benefits. Adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy may be useful for patients with advanced T3/4 and/or N+ disease. Gold-standard treatment for UTUC remains NU, increasingly performed using minimally invasive surgery. Nomograms including pre- and post-operative variables can aid prognostication and guide further therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prostate specific antigen and acinar density: a new dimension, the "Prostatocrit".

PubMed

Robinson, Simon; Laniado, Marc; Montgomery, Bruce

2017-01-01

Prostate-specific antigen densities have limited success in diagnosing prostate cancer. We emphasise the importance of the peripheral zone when considered with its cellular constituents, the "prostatocrit". Using zonal volumes and asymmetry of glandular acini, we generate a peripheral zone acinar volume and density. With the ratio to the whole gland, we can better predict high grade and all grade cancer. We can model the gland into its acinar and stromal elements. This new "prostatocrit" model could offer more accurate nomograms for biopsy. 674 patients underwent TRUS and biopsy. Whole gland and zonal volumes were recorded. We compared ratio and acinar volumes when added to a "clinic" model using traditional PSA density. Univariate logistic regression was used to find significant predictors for all and high grade cancer. Backwards multiple logistic regression was used to generate ROC curves comparing the new model to conventional density and PSA alone. Prediction of all grades of prostate cancer: significant variables revealed four significant "prostatocrit" parameters: log peripheral zone acinar density; peripheral zone acinar volume/whole gland acinar volume; peripheral zone acinar density/whole gland volume; peripheral zone acinar density. Acinar model (AUC 0.774), clinic model (AUC 0.745) (P=0.0105). Prediction of high grade prostate cancer: peripheral zone acinar density ("prostatocrit") was the only significant density predictor. Acinar model (AUC 0.811), clinic model (AUC 0.769) (P=0.0005). There is renewed use for ratio and "prostatocrit" density of the peripheral zone in predicting cancer. This outperforms all traditional density measurements. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

[Quantifying dialysis efficiency for middle molecules in haemodialysis and in convective and mixed techniques].

PubMed

Casino, F G; Lopez, T

2008-01-01

In contrast to the negative results of the primary analysis, secondary analyses of the HEMO study do support the clinical importance of middle molecule removal. This is in agreement with the findings of large observational studies showing an improvement in mortality and morbidity in dialysis patients treated with high-flux hemodialysis or convective techniques as compared to low-flux hemodialysis. For practical assessment of middle molecule removal, we suggest using the Kt/V of beta2-microglobulin (Kt/Vbeta2-m) with a reference (adequate) value of >or=0.66, which was the average value for the high-flux arm in the HEMO study. For patients on low-flux hemodialysis, where Kt/Vbeta2-m cannot reliably be assessed, we suggest using the Kt/V of vitamin B12 (Kt/VB12), with a reference (adequate) value of >or=0.74, adapted from the findings of the Case Mix Adequacy Study (AJKD 1999). To simplify the routine assessment of these indices, two nomograms are introduced: the first allows to estimate Kt/Vbeta2-m from the post- to pre-dialysis beta2-microglobulin concentration ratio, the second allows to estimate the diffusion dialysis clearance of vitamin B12 from the in vitro dialyzer KoAB12 and actual plasma water flow rate. While waiting for specific trials addressing the issue of dialysis adequacy related to middle molecule removal, clinical experience with the middle molecule indices could provide further quantitative tools for dialysis prescription and favor an increase in dialysis time (or frequency) and/or the use of high-flux hemodialysis and convective techniques.

External prognostic validations and comparisons of age- and gender-adjusted exercise capacity predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Esther S H; Ishwaran, Hemant; Blackstone, Eugene; Lauer, Michael S

2007-11-06

The purpose of this study was to externally validate the prognostic value of age- and gender-based nomograms and categorical definitions of impaired exercise capacity (EC). Exercise capacity predicts death, but its use in routine clinical practice is hampered by its close correlation with age and gender. For a median of 5 years, we followed 22,275 patients without known heart disease who underwent symptom-limited stress testing. Models for predicted or impaired EC were identified by literature search. Gender-specific multivariable proportional hazards models were constructed. Four methods were used to assess validity: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), right-censored c-index in 100 out-of-bootstrap samples, the Nagelkerke Index R2, and calculation of calibration error in 100 bootstrap samples. There were 646 and 430 deaths in 13,098 men and 9,177 women, respectively. Of the 7 models tested in men, a model based on a Veterans Affairs cohort (predicted metabolic equivalents [METs] = 18 - [0.15 x age]) had the highest AIC and R2. In women, a model based on the St. James Take Heart Project (predicted METs = 14.7 - [0.13 x age]) performed best. Categorical definitions of fitness performed less well. Even after accounting for age and gender, there was still an important interaction with age, whereby predicted EC was a weaker predictor in older subjects (p for interaction <0.001 in men and 0.003 in women). Several methods describe EC accounting for age and gender-related differences, but their ability to predict mortality differ. Simple cutoff values fail to fully describe EC's strong predictive value.

Pediatric hypertension in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Alkahtani, Shaea A.

2015-01-01

Objectives: To compare the levels of blood pressure (BP) between male and female adolescents in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and reference percentiles for Saudi adolescents. A secondary aim was to explore the distribution of BP among the participants based on age and gender. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 146 boys and girls attending intermediate and secondary schools in 2 regions (Al-Mallaha and Al-Mubarraz) in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Weight, random blood glucose, and BP were collected by a team of health educators in the morning of the school day between April and May 2014. Results: Of the current sample of adolescents originally from the Eastern Province, 30% had systolic blood pressure (SBP) of ≥140 mm Hg and 22% had diastolic blood pressure of ≥90 mm Hg. For girls between 13 and 16 years old, the SBP was greater than the 95th percentile of Saudi national norms. Participants were classified by gender and school stage, and one-way analysis of variance showed significant differences in the means of SBP between intermediate boys (127±2.5 mm Hg) and secondary boys (136±2.1 mm Hg) (p<0.05), and between intermediate boys and intermediate girls (138±1.6 mm Hg) (p<0.01). Conclusion: The increased level of BP among adolescents originally from the Eastern Province raises the need to update the current BP nomograms, considering possible differences for specific geographic areas across the country. Implementing therapeutic life style management in girls’ schools is recommended. PMID:25987114

Wide Area Security Region Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Guo, Xinxin

2010-03-31

This report develops innovative and efficient methodologies and practical procedures to determine the wide-area security region of a power system, which take into consideration all types of system constraints including thermal, voltage, voltage stability, transient and potentially oscillatory stability limits in the system. The approach expands the idea of transmission system nomograms to a multidimensional case, involving multiple system limits and parameters such as transmission path constraints, zonal generation or load, etc., considered concurrently. The security region boundary is represented using its piecewise approximation with the help of linear inequalities (so called hyperplanes) in a multi-dimensional space, consisting of systemmore » parameters that are critical for security analyses. The goal of this approximation is to find a minimum set of hyperplanes that describe the boundary with a given accuracy. Methodologies are also developed to use the security hyperplanes, pre-calculated offline, to determine system security margins in real-time system operations, to identify weak elements in the system, and to calculate key contributing factors and sensitivities to determine the best system controls in real time and to assist in developing remedial actions and transmission system enhancements offline . A prototype program that automates the simulation procedures used to build the set of security hyperplanes has also been developed. The program makes it convenient to update the set of security hyperplanes necessitated by changes in system configurations. A prototype operational tool that uses the security hyperplanes to assess security margins and to calculate optimal control directions in real time has been built to demonstrate the project success. Numerical simulations have been conducted using the full-size Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model, and they clearly demonstrated the feasibility and the effectiveness of the developed technology. Recommendations for the future work have also been formulated.« less

Normalized Urinary Flow at Puberty after Tubularized Incised Plate Urethroplasty for Hypospadias in Childhood.

PubMed

Andersson, Marie; Doroszkiewicz, Monika; Arfwidsson, Charlotte; Abrahamsson, Kate; Sillén, Ulla; Holmdahl, Gundela

2015-11-01

An obstructive urinary flow pattern is frequently seen after tubularized incised plate urethroplasty for hypospadias. However, the significance of this finding has not been determined and long-term results are few. We describe postoperative long-term uroflowmetry results after puberty in males who underwent tubularized incised plate urethroplasty in childhood. A total of 126 boys underwent tubularized incised plate urethroplasty for distal penile to mid shaft hypospadias at Queen Silvia Children's Hospital in Gothenburg between 1999 and 2003. Of the patients 48 were toilet trained at surgery. We report on 40 patients who had data available at 2 and 12 months postoperatively, 7 years postoperatively and at puberty (median age 15.0 years, range 13.7 to 17.1). Of the patients 31 had distal and 9 had mid penile hypospadias. Clinical examination, urinary medical history, uroflowmetry and ultrasound measuring residual urine were performed. Maximum urinary flow was correlated to age and voided volume, using Miskolc nomograms for comparison of percentiles. At 1 year postoperatively 15 boys (37.5%) had normal urinary flow (above 25th percentile), compared to 16 (40%) at 7 years and 38 (95%) at puberty (p <0.0001). Improvement was significant in patients with distal (p <0.0001) and mid penile hypospadias (p = 0.008), as well as in patients who did (p = 0.0078) and did not undergo intervention (p <0.0001). During followup 5 patients underwent meatotomy due to obstructive symptoms and 4 underwent dilation. Three of these 9 patients had lichen sclerosus. There is great potential for normalization of urinary flow at puberty for boys with hypospadias treated with tubularized incised plate urethroplasty. Unless symptoms occur, a conservative approach seems preferable. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond the Briganti nomogram: Individualisation of lymphadenectomy using selective sentinel node biopsy during radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Monserrat-Monfort, J J; Martinez-Sarmiento, M; Vera-Donoso, C D; Vera-Pinto, V; Sopena-Novales, P; Bello-Arqués, P; Boronat-Tormo, F

To validate the technique of selective sentinel node biopsy for diagnosing and staging intermediate to high-risk prostate cancer by comparing the technique with conventional extended lymphadenectomy (eLFD) in a prospective, longitudinal comparative study. We applied the technique to 45 patients. After an intraprostatic injection of 99m Tc-nanocolloid and preoperative single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT/CT), we extracted the sentinel lymph nodes, guided by a portable Sentinella® gamma camera and a laparoscopic gamma-ray detection probe. The eLFD was completed to establish the negative predictive value of the technique. SPECT/CT showed radiotracer deposits outside the eLFD territory in 73% of the patients and the laparoscopic gamma probe in 60%. The mean number of active foci per patient was 4.3 in the SPECT/CT and 3.2 in the laparoscopic gamma probe. The mean number of extracted sentinel lymph nodes was 4.3 (0-14), with 26% outside the eLFD territory. The lymph nodes were metastatic in 10 patients (22%), 6/40 (15%) when the prostatectomy was the primary treatment. In all cases with metastatic lymph nodes, there was at least one positive sentinel node. Metastatic sentinel lymph nodes were found outside the eLFD territory in 3/10 patients (30%). The sensitivity was 100%, the specificity was 94.73%, the positive predictive value was 81.81%, and the negative predictive value was 100%. Selective sentinel node biopsy is superior to eLFD for diagnosing lymph node involvement and can avoid eLFD when metastatic sentinel lymph nodes are not found (85%), with the consequent functional advantages. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Posttest Probability of Parotid Fine-Needle Aspiration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, C Carrie; Jethwa, Ashok R; Khariwala, Samir S; Johnson, Jonas; Shin, Jennifer J

2016-01-01

(1) To analyze the sensitivity and specificity of fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in distinguishing benign from malignant parotid disease. (2) To determine the anticipated posttest probability of malignancy and probability of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology with parotid FNA. Independently corroborated computerized searches of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register were performed. These were supplemented with manual searches and input from content experts. Inclusion/exclusion criteria specified diagnosis of parotid mass, intervention with both FNA and surgical excision, and enumeration of both cytologic and surgical histopathologic results. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and posttest probability of malignancy. Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I(2) statistic. Meta-analysis was performed via a 2-level mixed logistic regression model. Bayesian nomograms were plotted via pooled likelihood ratios. The systematic review yielded 70 criterion-meeting studies, 63 of which contained data that allowed for computation of numerical outcomes (n = 5647 patients; level 2a) and consideration of meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed in studies that were prospective, involved consecutive patients, described the FNA technique utilized, and used ultrasound guidance. The I(2) point estimate was >70% for all analyses, except within prospectively obtained and ultrasound-guided results. Among the prospective subgroup, the pooled analysis demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.882 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.509-0.982) and a specificity of 0.995 (95% CI, 0.960-0.999). The probabilities of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology were 0.053 (95% CI, 0.030-0.075) and 0.147 (95% CI, 0.106-0.188), respectively. FNA has moderate sensitivity and high specificity in differentiating malignant from benign parotid lesions. Considerable heterogeneity is present among studies. © American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

Interpretation of diagnostic data: 4. How to do it with a more complex table.

PubMed

1983-10-15

A more complex table is especially useful when a diagnostic test produces a wide range of results and your patient's levels are near one of the extremes. The following guidelines will be useful: Identify the several cut-off points that could be used. Fill in a complex table along the lines of Table I, showing the numbers of patients at each level who have and do not have the target disorder. Generate a simple table for each cut-off point, as in Table II, and determine the sensitivity (TP rate) and specificity (TN rate) at each of them. Select the cut-off point that makes the most sense for your patient's test result and proceed as in parts 2 and 3 of our series. Alternatively, construct an ROC curve by plotting the TP and FP rates that attend each cut-off point. If you keep your tables and ROC curves close at hand, you will gradually accumulate a set of very useful guides. However, if you looked very hard at what was happening, you will probably have noticed that they are not very useful for patients whose test results fall in the middle zones, or for those with just one positive result of two tests; the post-test likelihood of disease in these patients lurches back and forth past 50%, depending on where the cut-off point is. We will show you how to tackle this problem in part 5 of our series. It involves some maths, but you will find that its very powerful clinical application can be achieved with a simple nomogram or with some simple calculations.

Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Screening in Israel-Arab and Palestinian-Arab Neonates.

PubMed

Abu Omar, Rawan; Algur, Nurit; Megged, Orli; Hammerman, Cathy; Kaplan, Michael

2015-07-01

To evaluate the frequency of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G-6-PD) deficiency, the incidence of clinically significant jaundice (any serum total bilirubin value >75th percentile on the hour-specific bilirubin nomogram), and the need for phototherapy in the pooled male Israeli-Arab and Palestinian-Arab population born at the Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem, Israel. Quantitative G-6-PD enzyme testing of umbilical cord blood was performed during birth hospitalization. G-6-PD deficiency was defined as any G-6-PD value <7.0 U/gHb. Transcutaneous bilirubin was performed daily during birth hospitalization, with serum total bilirubin testing in those with a transcutaneous bilirubin value >75th percentile. Ten of 286 (3.5%) consecutively delivered male Arab newborns had G-6-PD deficiency. Clinically significant jaundice was higher in the population with G-6-PD deficiency compared with normal controls (relative risk, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.24-9.58). Thirty percent of the newborns with G-6-PD deficiency met American Academy of Pediatrics indications for phototherapy according to the high-risk (middle) curve on the phototherapy graph. The frequency of G-6-PD deficiency in the Arab neonatal population delivering at this medical center meets World Health Organization criteria for neonatal G-6-PD screening (3%-5%). As in other ethnic groups, clinically significant jaundice is more frequent in newborns of this ethnic group with G-6-PD deficiency compared with G-6-PD-normal controls. Neonatal G-6-PD screening for both males and females of this population subgroup, in conjunction with parental education regarding the dangers of the condition and its prophylaxis, has now been incorporated into our institution's routine G-6-PD screening program. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corneal Astigmatism and Aberrations After Combined Femtosecond-Assisted Phacoemulsification and Arcuate Keratotomy: Two-Year Results.

PubMed

Chan, Tommy C Y; Ng, Alex L K; Cheng, George P M; Wang, Zheng; Woo, Victor C P; Jhanji, Vishal

2016-10-01

To investigate the stability of corneal astigmatism and higher-order aberrations after combined femtosecond-assisted phacoemulsification and arcuate keratotomy. Retrospective, interventional case series. Surgery was performed using a VICTUS (Bausch & Lomb Inc, Dornach, Germany) platform. A single, 450-μm deep, arcuate keratotomy was paired at the 8-mm zone with the main phacoemulsification incision in the opposite meridian. The keratotomy incisions were not opened. Corneal astigmatism and higher-order aberration measurements obtained preoperatively and at 2 months and 2 years postoperatively were analyzed. Fifty eyes of 50 patients (mean age 66.2 ± 10.5 years) were included. The mean preoperative corneal astigmatism was 1.35 ± 0.48 diopters (D). This was reduced to 0.67 ± 0.54 D at 2 months and 0.74 ± 0.53 D at 2 years postoperatively (P < .001). There was no statistically significant difference between postoperative corneal astigmatism over 2 years (P = .392). Both magnitude of error and absolute angle of error were comparable between the 2 postoperative time points (P > .283). At postoperative 2 months and 2 years, 72% and 70% of eyes were within 15 degrees of preoperative meridian of astigmatism, respectively. All wavefront measurements increased significantly at 2 months and 2 years (P < .007), except spherical aberration (P > .150). There was no significant difference in higher-order aberrations between 2 months and 2 years postoperatively (P > .486). Our study showed the stability of femtosecond-assisted arcuate keratotomy. Further studies using other platforms and nomograms are needed to corroborate the findings of this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictions of the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with primary breast cancer using a data mining technique.

PubMed

Takada, M; Sugimoto, M; Ohno, S; Kuroi, K; Sato, N; Bando, H; Masuda, N; Iwata, H; Kondo, M; Sasano, H; Chow, L W C; Inamoto, T; Naito, Y; Tomita, M; Toi, M

2012-07-01

Nomogram, a standard technique that utilizes multiple characteristics to predict efficacy of treatment and likelihood of a specific status of an individual patient, has been used for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients. The aim of this study was to develop a novel computational technique to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) to NAC in primary breast cancer patients. A mathematical model using alternating decision trees, an epigone of decision tree, was developed using 28 clinicopathological variables that were retrospectively collected from patients treated with NAC (n = 150), and validated using an independent dataset from a randomized controlled trial (n = 173). The model selected 15 variables to predict the pCR with yielding area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values of 0.766 [95 % confidence interval (CI)], 0.671-0.861, P value < 0.0001) in cross-validation using training dataset and 0.787 (95 % CI 0.716-0.858, P value < 0.0001) in the validation dataset. Among three subtypes of breast cancer, the luminal subgroup showed the best discrimination (AUC = 0.779, 95 % CI 0.641-0.917, P value = 0.0059). The developed model (AUC = 0.805, 95 % CI 0.716-0.894, P value < 0.0001) outperformed multivariate logistic regression (AUC = 0.754, 95 % CI 0.651-0.858, P value = 0.00019) of validation datasets without missing values (n = 127). Several analyses, e.g. bootstrap analysis, revealed that the developed model was insensitive to missing values and also tolerant to distribution bias among the datasets. Our model based on clinicopathological variables showed high predictive ability for pCR. This model might improve the prediction of the response to NAC in primary breast cancer patients.

Preoperative predictive model of recovery of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Matsushita, Kazuhito; Kent, Matthew T; Vickers, Andrew J; von Bodman, Christian; Bernstein, Melanie; Touijer, Karim A; Coleman, Jonathan A; Laudone, Vincent T; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A; Akin, Oguz; Sandhu, Jaspreet S

2015-10-01

To build a predictive model of urinary continence recovery after radical prostatectomy (RP) that incorporates magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and clinical data. We conducted a retrospective review of data from 2,849 patients who underwent pelvic staging MRI before RP from November 2001 to June 2010. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between each MRI variable and continence at 6 or 12 months, adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, and then used multivariable logistic regression to create our model. A nomogram was constructed using the multivariable logistic regression models. In all, 68% (1,742/2,559) and 82% (2,205/2,689) regained function at 6 and 12 months, respectively. In the base model, age, BMI and ASA score were significant predictors of continence at 6 or 12 months on univariate analysis (P < 0.005). Among the preoperative MRI measurements, membranous urethral length, which showed great significance, was incorporated into the base model to create the full model. For continence recovery at 6 months, the addition of membranous urethral length increased the area under the curve (AUC) to 0.664 for the validation set, an increase of 0.064 over the base model. For continence recovery at 12 months, the AUC was 0.674, an increase of 0.085 over the base model. Using our model, the likelihood of continence recovery increases with membranous urethral length and decreases with age, BMI and ASA score. This model could be used for patient counselling and for the identification of patients at high risk for urinary incontinence in whom to study changes in operative technique that improve urinary function after RP. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of 2H2O for estimating rates of gluconeogenesis: determination and correction of error due to transaldolase exchange

PubMed Central

Burgess, Shawn C.

2012-01-01

The use of deuterated water as a method to measure gluconeogenesis has previously been well validated and is reflective of normal human physiology. However, there has been concern since the method was first introduced that transaldolase exchange may lead to the overestimation of gluconeogenesis. We examined the impact of transaldolase exchange on the estimation of gluconenogenesis using the deuterated water method under a variety of physiological conditions in humans by using the gluconeogenic tracer [U-13C]propionate, 2H2O, and 2H/13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. When [U-13C]propionate was used, 13C labeling inequality occurred between the top and bottom halves of glucose in individuals fasted for 12–24 h who were weight stable (n = 18) or had lost weight via calorie restriction (n = 7), consistent with transaldolase exchange. Similar analysis of glucose standards revealed no significant difference in the total 13C enrichment between the top and bottom halves of glucose, indicating that the differences detected were biological, not analytical, in origin. This labeling inequality was attenuated by extending the fasting period to 48 h (n = 12) as well as by dietary carbohydrate restriction (n = 7), both conditions associated with decreased glycogenolysis. These findings were consistent with a transaldolase effect; however, the resultant overestimation of gluconeogenesis in the overnight-fasted state was modest (7–12%), leading to an error of 14–24% that was easily correctable by using either a simultaneous 13C gluconeogenic tracer or a correction nomogram generated from data in the present study. PMID:23032685

Amisulpride overdose is frequently associated with QT prolongation and torsades de pointes.

PubMed

Isbister, Geoffrey K; Balit, Corrine R; Macleod, Dawson; Duffull, Stephen B

2010-08-01

This study aimed to describe the effects of the antipsychotic amisulpride in overdose, including the frequency of QT prolongation and torsades de pointes. Cases of amisulpride overdose (>1 g) were recruited from 2 state poison centers and a tertiary toxicology unit over 5 years. A 1-page clinical research form was used to collect clinical information. Copies of all electrocardiograms were obtained. Electrocardiogram parameters (QRS and QT intervals) were manually measured as previously described, and plots of QT-heart rate (HR) pairs were compared with the QT nomogram. There were 83 patients with amisulpride overdoses with a median age of 29 years (interquartile range [IQR], 23-40 years), and 42 (51%) were female. The median dose ingested was 6 g (IQR, 3-13 g, range, 1.2-120 g). The median HR was 66 beats/min (IQR, 60-81 beats/min). Bradycardia occurred in 20 cases (24%), and hypotension in 19 (23%). From 440 electrocardiograms (average of 5 per case; range, 1-15), an abnormal QT-HR pair occurred in 61 cases (73%). Torsades de pointes developed in 6 cases (7%), with doses of 4, 4.6, 18, 24, 32, and 80 g. The patient taking 32 g died after a cardiac arrest. Widened QRS did not occur except transient rate-dependent bundle-branch block in 3 cases. There were significant associations of bradycardia, hypokalemia, and hypocalcaemia, with QT prolongation and torsades de pointes. Central nervous system effects were uncommon with coma in 7 cases, seizures in 2, and dystonic reactions in 2. Amisulpride overdose commonly causes QT prolongation, bradycardia, and hypotension. Torsades de pointes occurred commonly enough to suggest that amisulpride is highly cardiotoxic in overdose.

Surgical upgrade rate of breast atypia to malignancy: An academic center's experience and validation of a predictive model.

PubMed

Linsk, Ali; Mehta, Tejas S; Dialani, Vandana; Brook, Alexander; Chadashvili, Tamuna; Houlihan, Mary Jane; Sharma, Ranjna

2018-03-01

Atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH), and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) are commonly seen on breast core needle biopsy (CNB). Many institutions recommend excision of these lesions to exclude malignancy. A retrospective chart review was performed on patients who had ADH, ALH, or LCIS on breast CNB from 1/1/08 to 12/31/10 who subsequently had surgical excision of the biopsy site. Study objectives included determining upgrade to malignancy at surgical excision, identification of predictors of upgrade, and validation of a recently published predictive model. Clinical and demographic factors, pathology, characteristics of the biopsy procedure and visible residual lesion were recorded. T test and chi-squared test were used to identify predictors. Classification tree was used to predict upgrade. 151 patients had mean age of 53 years. The mean maximum lesion size on imaging was 11 mm. The primary atypia was ADH in 63.6%, ALH in 27.8%, and LCIS in 8.6%. 16.6% of patients had upgrade to malignancy, with 72% DCIS and 28% invasive carcinoma. Risk factors for upgrade included maximum lesion size (P = .002) and radiographic presence of residual lesion (P = .001). A predictive model based on these factors had sensitivity 78%, specificity 80% and AUC = 0.88. Validating a published nomogram with our data produced accuracy figures (AUC = 0.65) within published CI of 0.63-0.82. In CNB specimens containing ADH, ALH, or LCIS, initial lesion size and presence of residual lesion are predictors of upgrade to malignancy. A validated model may be helpful in developing patient management strategies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Contribution of rivaroxaban to the international normalized ratio when switching to warfarin for anticoagulation as determined by simulation studies

PubMed Central

Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Burghaus, Rolf; Kubitza, Dagmar; Coboeken, Katrin

2015-01-01

Aim This study evaluated the influence of rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily on international normalized ratio (INR) during the co-administration period when switching from rivaroxaban to warfarin. Methods We developed a calibrated coagulation model that was qualified with phase I clinical data. Prothrombin time and INR values were simulated by use of phospholipid concentrations that matched Neoplastin Plus® and Innovin® reagents. To simulate the combined effects of rivaroxaban and warfarin on INR during switching, warfarin initiation was simulated by adjusting the magnitude of the warfarin effect to reach the desired target INRs over the course of 21 days. The warfarin effect values (obtained every 6 h) and the desired rivaroxaban plasma concentrations were used. Nomograms were generated from rivaroxaban induced increases in INR. Results The simulation had good prediction quality. Rivaroxaban induced increases in the total INR from the warfarin attributed INR were seen, which increased with rivaroxaban plasma concentration. When the warfarin only INR was 2.0–3.0, the INR contribution of rivaroxaban with Neoplastin Plus® was 0.5–1.2, decreasing to 0.3–0.6 with Innovin® at median trough rivaroxaban plasma concentrations (38 μg l−1). Conclusions The data indicate that measuring warfarin induced changes in INR are best performed at trough rivaroxaban concentrations (24 h after rivaroxaban dosing) during the co-administration period when switching from rivaroxaban to warfarin. Furthermore, Innovin® is preferable to Neoplastin Plus® because of its substantially lower sensitivity to rivaroxaban, thereby reducing the influence of rivaroxaban on the measured INR. PMID:25510952

Carotid intima-media thickness value distributions in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

PubMed

Santos, Itamar S; Bittencourt, Márcio S; Oliveira, Ilka R S; Souza, Angelita G; Meireles, Danilo P; Rundek, Tatjana; Foppa, Murilo; Bezerra, Daniel C; Freire, Cláudia M V; Roelke, Leonard H; Carrilho, Sayonara; Benseñor, Isabela M; Lotufo, Paulo A

2014-11-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) is a noninvasive measurement of early atherosclerosis. Most IMT studies have involved populations with low rates of racial blending. The aim of the present article is to describe IMT value distributions and analyze the influence of sex and race on IMT values in a large Brazilian sample, a setting with a high rate of racial admixture. The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) is a multicenter cohort of 15,105 adult (aged 35-74 years) civil servants in six Brazilian cities. Baseline assessment included IMT measurements in both common carotid arteries. Race was self-reported. We studied the association between sex and race with IMT values using multiple linear regression models. We conducted analyses in all and low-risk individuals, defined as those without classical cardiovascular risk factors. We analyzed complete IMT data from 10,405 ELSA-Brasil participants. We present nomograms by age for all and low-risk individuals, stratified by sex and race. We found that men had significantly higher maximal IMT values compared with women (β = 0.058; P < 0.001). This association remained for low-risk individuals (β = 0.027; P = 0.001). In addition, Brown and White individuals had lower maximal IMT values compared with Black individuals for all (β = -0.034 and β = -0.054, respectively; P < 0.001) and low-risk individuals (β = -0.027; P = 0.013 and β = -0.035; P < 0.001, respectively). We found significantly higher IMT values in men. We found significantly higher IMT values in Black individuals than White and Brown individuals. These results persisted when analyses were restricted to low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Management of benign prostatic hyperplasia with silodosin

PubMed Central

Yamanishi, Tomonori; Mizuno, Tomoya; Kamai, Takao; Yoshida, Ken-Ichiro; Sakakibara, Ryuji; Uchiyama, Tomoyuki

2009-01-01

It has been reported that blockade of α1A-adrenoceptor (AR) relieves bladder outlet obstruction, while blockade of α1D-AR is believed to alleviate storage symptoms due to detrusor overactivity. Silodosin, (−)-1-(3-hydroxypropyl)-5-[(2R)-2-({2-[2-(2,2,2trifluoroethoxy) phenoxy]ethyl}amino)propyl]-2,3-dihydro-1H-indole-7- carboxamide, is a new α1A-AR selective antagonist. Silodosin is highly selective for the α1A-AR subtype, showing an affinity for the α1A-AR that is 583- and 55.5-fold higher than its affinity for the α1B-and α1D-ARs, respectively. In randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III studies performed in Japan and the United States, silodosin has been shown to be effective for both storage and voiding symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia. Early effects of silodosin (after 2–6 hours or day 1) on lower urinary tract symptoms have also been reported. In urodynamic studies, detrusor overactivity disappeared in 40% and improved in 35% of patients after administration. In pressure flow studies, the grade of obstruction on the International Continence Society nomogram showed improvement in 56% of patients. The rate of adverse events in the silodosin, tamsulosin and placebo groups was 88.6%, 82.3%, and 71.6%, respectively. The most common adverse event was (mostly mild) abnormal ejaculation (28.1%). However, few patients (2.8%) discontinued silodosin because of abnormal ejaculation. Orthostatic hypotension showed a similar incidence in the silodosin (2.6%) and placebo (1.5%) groups. In conclusion, silodosin improves detrusor overactivity and obstruction and thus may be effective for both storage and voiding symptoms in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia. PMID:24198606

Refractive accuracy with light-adjustable intraocular lenses.

PubMed

Villegas, Eloy A; Alcon, Encarna; Rubio, Elena; Marín, José M; Artal, Pablo

2014-07-01

To evaluate efficacy, predictability, and stability of refractive treatments using light-adjustable intraocular lenses (IOLs). University Hospital Virgen de la Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain. Prospective nonrandomized clinical trial. Eyes with a light-adjustable IOL (LAL) were treated with spatial intensity profiles to correct refractive errors. The effective changes in refraction in the light-adjustable IOL after every treatment were estimated by subtracting those in the whole eye and the cornea, which were measured with a Hartmann-Shack sensor and a corneal topographer, respectively. The refractive changes in the whole eye and light-adjustable IOL, manifest refraction, and visual acuity were obtained after every light treatment and at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. The study enrolled 53 eyes (49 patients). Each tested light spatial pattern (5 spherical; 3 astigmatic) produced a different refractive change (P<.01). The combination of 2 light adjustments induced a maximum change in spherical power of the light-adjustable IOL of between -1.98 diopters (D) and +2.30 D and in astigmatism of up to -2.68 D with axis errors below 9 degrees. Intersubject variability (standard deviation) ranged between 0.10 D and 0.40 D. The 2 required lock-in procedures induced a small myopic shift (range +0.01 to +0.57 D) that depended on previous adjustments. Light-adjustable IOL implantation achieved accurate refractive outcomes (around emmetropia) with good uncorrected distance visual acuity, which remained stable over time. Further refinements in nomograms and in the treatment's protocol would improve the predictability of refractive and visual outcomes with these IOLs. No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2014 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of preoperative cycloplegic refraction in LASIK treatment of hyperopia.

PubMed

Frings, Andreas; Steinberg, Johannes; Druchkiv, Vasyl; Linke, Stephan J; Katz, Toam

2016-07-01

Previous studies have suggested that, to improve refractive predictability in hyperopic LASIK treatments, preoperative cycloplegic or manifest refraction, or a combination of both, could be used in the laser nomogram. We set out to investigate (1) the prevalence of a high difference between manifest and cycloplegic spherical equivalent in hyperopic eyes preoperatively, and (2) the related predictability of postoperative keratometry. Retrospective cross-sectional data analysis of consecutive treated 186 eyes from 186 consecutive hyperopic patients (mean age 42 [±12] years) were analyzed. Excimer ablation for all eyes was performed using a mechanical microkeratome (SBK, Moria, France) and an Allegretto excimer laser platform. Two groups were defined according to the difference between manifest and cycloplegic spherical equivalent which was defined as ≥1.00 diopter (D); the data was analyzed according to refractive outcome in terms of refractive predictability, efficacy, and safety. In 24 eyes (13 %), a preoperative difference of ≥1.00D between manifest spherical equivalent and cycloplegic spherical equivalent (= MCD) occurred. With increasing preoperative MCD, the postoperative achieved spherical equivalent showed hyperopic regression after 3 months. There was no statistically significant effect of age (accommodation) or optical zone size on the achieved spherical equivalent. A difference of ≥1.00D occurs in about 13 % of hyperopia cases. We suggest that hyperopic correction should be based on the manifest spherical equivalent in eyes with preoperative MCD <1.00D. If the preoperative MCD is ≥1.00D, treatment may produce manifest undercorrection, and therefore we advise that the patient should be warrned about lower predictability, and suggest basing conclusions on the arithmetic mean calculated from the preoperative manifest and cycloplegic spheres.

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Yi; Huang, Chen-Yuan; Su, Chwen-Tzeng; Lin, Chen-Chiang

2014-01-01

Objectives Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone. Methods In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models. Results Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan's nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear). Conclusions Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears. PMID:24733553

Valve Repair Is Superior to Replacement in Most Patients With Coexisting Degenerative Mitral Valve and Coronary Artery Diseases.

PubMed

Javadikasgari, Hoda; Gillinov, A Marc; Idrees, Jay J; Mihaljevic, Tomislav; Suri, Rakesh M; Raza, Sajjad; Houghtaling, Penny L; Svensson, Lars G; Navia, José L; Mick, Stephanie L; Desai, Milind Y; Sabik, Joseph F; Blackstone, Eugene H

2017-06-01

For mitral regurgitation (MR) from degenerative mitral disease in patients with coexisting coronary artery disease, the appropriate surgical strategy remains controversial. From 1985 to 2011, 1,071 adults (age 70 ± 9.3 years, 77% men) underwent combined coronary artery bypass grafting and either mitral valve repair (n = 872, 81%) or replacement (n=199, 19%) for degenerative MR. Propensity matching (177 patient pairs, 89% of possible matches) was used to compare early outcomes and time-related recurrence of MR after mitral valve repair, mitral valve reoperation, and mortality. Risk factors for death were identified with multivariable, multiphase hazard-function analysis. Patients undergoing valve replacement were older, with more valve calcification and a higher prevalence of preoperative atrial fibrillation and heart failure (all p < .0001). Among matched pairs, mitral replacement versus repair was associated with higher hospital mortality (5.0% vs 1.0%, p = .0001) and more postoperative renal failure (7.0% vs 3.2%, p = .01), reexplorations for bleeding (6.0% vs 3.1%, p = .05), and respiratory failure (14% vs 4.7%, p < .0001). Of matched patients undergoing repair, 18% had MR above 3+ by 5 years. Mitral valve durability was similar between matched groups, but survival at 15 years was 18% after replacement versus 52% after repair. Nomograms from the multivariable equation revealed that in 94% of cases, 10-year survival was calculated to be higher after repair than after replacement. In patients with coexisting degenerative mitral valve and coronary artery diseases, mitral valve repair is expected to confer a long-term survival advantage over replacement despite some recurrence of MR. When feasible, it is the procedure of choice for these patients. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eto, Joseph H.; Parashar, Manu; Lewis, Nancy Jo

The Real Time System Operations (RTSO) 2006-2007 project focused on two parallel technical tasks: (1) Real-Time Applications of Phasors for Monitoring, Alarming and Control; and (2) Real-Time Voltage Security Assessment (RTVSA) Prototype Tool. The overall goal of the phasor applications project was to accelerate adoption and foster greater use of new, more accurate, time-synchronized phasor measurements by conducting research and prototyping applications on California ISO's phasor platform - Real-Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) -- that provide previously unavailable information on the dynamic stability of the grid. Feasibility assessment studies were conducted on potential application of this technology for small-signal stabilitymore » monitoring, validating/improving existing stability nomograms, conducting frequency response analysis, and obtaining real-time sensitivity information on key metrics to assess grid stress. Based on study findings, prototype applications for real-time visualization and alarming, small-signal stability monitoring, measurement based sensitivity analysis and frequency response assessment were developed, factory- and field-tested at the California ISO and at BPA. The goal of the RTVSA project was to provide California ISO with a prototype voltage security assessment tool that runs in real time within California ISO?s new reliability and congestion management system. CERTS conducted a technical assessment of appropriate algorithms, developed a prototype incorporating state-of-art algorithms (such as the continuation power flow, direct method, boundary orbiting method, and hyperplanes) into a framework most suitable for an operations environment. Based on study findings, a functional specification was prepared, which the California ISO has since used to procure a production-quality tool that is now a part of a suite of advanced computational tools that is used by California ISO for reliability and congestion management.« less

Can one blood draw replace transrectal ultrasonography-estimated prostate volume to predict prostate cancer risk?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sigrid V; Peltola, Mari T; Sjoberg, Daniel; Schröder, Fritz H; Hugosson, Jonas; Pettersson, Kim; Scardino, Peter T; Vickers, Andrew J; Lilja, Hans; Roobol, Monique J

2013-09-01

To explore whether a panel of kallikrein markers in blood: total, free and intact prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and kallikrein-related peptidase 2, could be used as a non-invasive alternative for predicting prostate cancer on biopsy in a screening setting. The study cohort comprised previously unscreened men who underwent sextant biopsy owing to elevated PSA (≥3 ng/mL) in two different centres of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, Rotterdam (n = 2914) and Göteborg (n = 740). A statistical model, based on kallikrein markers, was compared with one based on established clinical factors for the prediction of biopsy outcome. The clinical tests were found to be no better than blood markers, with an area under the curve in favour of the blood measurements of 0.766 vs. 0.763 in Rotterdam and 0.809 vs. 0.774 in Göteborg. Adding digital rectal examination (DRE) or DRE plus transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) volume to the markers improved discrimination, although the increases were small. Results were similar for predicting high-grade cancer. There was a strong correlation between the blood measurements and TRUS-estimated prostate volume (Spearman's correlation 0.60 in Rotterdam and 0.57 in Göteborg). In previously unscreened men, each with indication for biopsy, a statistical model based on kallikrein levels was similar to a clinical model in predicting prostate cancer in a screening setting, outside the day-to-day clinical practice. Whether a clinical approach can be replaced by laboratory analyses or used in combination with decision models (nomograms) is a clinical judgment that may vary from clinician to clinician depending on how they weigh the different advantages and disadvantages (harms, costs, time, invasiveness) of both approaches. © 2013 BJU International.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Posttest Probability of Parotid Fine-Needle Aspiration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, C. Carrie; Jethwa, Ashok R.; Khariwala, Samir S.; Johnson, Jonas; Shin, Jennifer J.

2016-01-01

Objectives (1) To analyze the sensitivity and specificity of fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in distinguishing benign from malignant parotid disease. (2) To determine the anticipated posttest probability of malignancy and probability of non-diagnostic and indeterminate cytology with parotid FNA. Data Sources Independently corroborated computerized searches of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register were performed. These were supplemented with manual searches and input from content experts. Review Methods Inclusion/exclusion criteria specified diagnosis of parotid mass, intervention with both FNA and surgical excision, and enumeration of both cytologic and surgical histopathologic results. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and posttest probability of malignancy. Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I2 statistic. Meta-analysis was performed via a 2-level mixed logistic regression model. Bayesian nomograms were plotted via pooled likelihood ratios. Results The systematic review yielded 70 criterion-meeting studies, 63 of which contained data that allowed for computation of numerical outcomes (n = 5647 patients; level 2a) and consideration of meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed in studies that were prospective, involved consecutive patients, described the FNA technique utilized, and used ultrasound guidance. The I2 point estimate was >70% for all analyses, except within prospectively obtained and ultrasound-guided results. Among the prospective subgroup, the pooled analysis demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.882 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.509–0.982) and a specificity of 0.995 (95% CI, 0.960–0.999). The probabilities of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology were 0.053 (95% CI, 0.030–0.075) and 0.147 (95% CI, 0.106–0.188), respectively. Conclusion FNA has moderate sensitivity and high specificity in differentiating malignant from benign parotid lesions. Considerable heterogeneity is present among studies. PMID:26428476

A survey of blood pressure in Lebanese children and adolescence

PubMed Central

Merhi, Bassem Abou; Al-Hajj, Fatima; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Ziade, Fouad; El-Rajab, Mariam

2011-01-01

Background: Blood pressure varies between populations due to ethnic and environmental factors. Therefore, normal blood pressure values should be determined for different populations. Aims: The aim of this survey was to produce blood pressure nomograms for Lebanese children in order to establish distribution curves of blood pressure by age and sex. Subjects and Methods: We conducted a survey of blood pressure in 5710 Lebanese schoolchildren aged 5 to 15 years (2918 boys and 2792 girls), and studied the distribution of systolic and diastolic blood pressure in these children and adolescents. Blood pressure was measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer using a standardized technique. Results: Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure had a positive correlation with weight, height, age, and body mass index (r= 0.648, 0.643, 0.582, and 0.44, respectively) (P < .001). There was no significant difference in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure in boys compared to girls of corresponding ages. However, the average annual increase in systolic blood pressure was 2.86 mm Hg in boys and 2.63 mm Hg in girls, whereas the annual increase in diastolic blood pressure was 1.72 mm Hg in boys and 1.48 mm Hg in girls. The prevalence of high and high-normal blood pressure at the upper limit of normal (between the 90th and 95th percentile, at risk of future hypertension if not managed adequately), was 10.5% in boys and 6.9% in girls, with similar distributions among the two sexes. Conclusions: We present the first age-specific reference values for blood pressure of Lebanese children aged 5 to 15 years based on a good representative sample. The use of these reference values should help pediatricians identify children with normal, high-normal and high blood pressure. PMID:22540059

A survey of blood pressure in Lebanese children and adolescence.

PubMed

Merhi, Bassem Abou; Al-Hajj, Fatima; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Ziade, Fouad; El-Rajab, Mariam

2011-01-01

Blood pressure varies between populations due to ethnic and environmental factors. Therefore, normal blood pressure values should be determined for different populations. The aim of this survey was to produce blood pressure nomograms for Lebanese children in order to establish distribution curves of blood pressure by age and sex. We conducted a survey of blood pressure in 5710 Lebanese schoolchildren aged 5 to 15 years (2918 boys and 2792 girls), and studied the distribution of systolic and diastolic blood pressure in these children and adolescents. Blood pressure was measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer using a standardized technique. Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure had a positive correlation with weight, height, age, and body mass index (r= 0.648, 0.643, 0.582, and 0.44, respectively) (P < .001). There was no significant difference in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure in boys compared to girls of corresponding ages. However, the average annual increase in systolic blood pressure was 2.86 mm Hg in boys and 2.63 mm Hg in girls, whereas the annual increase in diastolic blood pressure was 1.72 mm Hg in boys and 1.48 mm Hg in girls. The prevalence of high and high-normal blood pressure at the upper limit of normal (between the 90(th) and 95(th) percentile, at risk of future hypertension if not managed adequately), was 10.5% in boys and 6.9% in girls, with similar distributions among the two sexes. We present the first age-specific reference values for blood pressure of Lebanese children aged 5 to 15 years based on a good representative sample. The use of these reference values should help pediatricians identify children with normal, high-normal and high blood pressure.

A quick inexpensive laboratory method in acute paracetamol poisoning could improve risk assessment, management and resource utilization

PubMed Central

Senarathna, S.M.D.K. Ganga; Ranganathan, Shalini S.; Buckley, Nick; Soysa, S.S.S.B.D. Preethi; Fernandopulle, B. M. Rohini

2012-01-01

Objectives: Acute paracetamol poisoning is an emerging problem in Sri Lanka. Management guidelines recommend ingested dose and serum paracetamol concentrations to assess the risk. Our aim was to determine the usefulness of the patient's history of an ingested dose of >150 mg/kg and paracetamol concentration obtained by a simple colorimetric method to assess risk in patients with acute paracetamol poisoning. Materials and Methods: Serum paracetamol concentrations were determined in 100 patients with a history of paracetamol overdose using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC); (reference method). The results were compared to those obtained with a colorimetric method. The utility of risk assessment by reported dose ingested and colorimetric analysis were compared. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the history of ingested dose was 0.578 and there was no dose cut-off providing useful risk categorization. Both analytical methods had less than 5% intra- and inter-batch variation and were accurate on spiked samples. The time from blood collection to result was six times faster and ten times cheaper for colorimetry (30 minutes, US$2) than for HPLC (180 minutes, US$20). The correlation coefficient between the paracetamol levels by the two methods was 0.85. The agreement on clinical risk categorization on the standard nomogram was also good (Kappa = 0.62, sensitivity 81%, specificity 89%). Conclusions: History of dose ingested alone greatly over-estimated the number of patients who need antidotes and it was a poor predictor of risk. Paracetamol concentrations by colorimetry are rapid and inexpensive. The use of these would greatly improve the assessment of risk and greatly reduce unnecessary expenditure on antidotes. PMID:23087506

The CHOP postnatal weight gain, birth weight, and gestational age retinopathy of prematurity risk model.

PubMed

Binenbaum, Gil; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Quinn, Graham E; Huang, Jiayan; Dreiseitl, Stephan; Antigua, Jules; Foroughi, Negar; Abbasi, Soraya

2012-12-01

To develop a birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), and postnatal-weight gain retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) prediction model in a cohort of infants meeting current screening guidelines. Multivariate logistic regression was applied retrospectively to data from infants born with BW less than 1501 g or GA of 30 weeks or less at a single Philadelphia hospital between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009. In the model, BW, GA, and daily weight gain rate were used repeatedly each week to predict risk of Early Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity type 1 or 2 ROP. If risk was above a cut-point level, examinations would be indicated. Of 524 infants, 20 (4%) had type 1 ROP and received laser treatment; 28 (5%) had type 2 ROP. The model (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia [CHOP]) accurately predicted all infants with type 1 ROP; missed 1 infant with type 2 ROP, who did not require laser treatment; and would have reduced the number of infants requiring examinations by 49%. Raising the cut point to miss one type 1 ROP case would have reduced the need for examinations by 79%. Using daily weight measurements to calculate weight gain rate resulted in slightly higher examination reduction than weekly measurements. The BW-GA-weight gain CHOP ROP model demonstrated accurate ROP risk assessment and a large reduction in the number of ROP examinations compared with current screening guidelines. As a simple logistic equation, it can be calculated by hand or represented as a nomogram for easy clinical use. However, larger studies are needed to achieve a highly precise estimate of sensitivity prior to clinical application.

Prospective multi-institutional study evaluating the performance of prostate cancer risk calculators.

PubMed

Nam, Robert K; Kattan, Michael W; Chin, Joseph L; Trachtenberg, John; Singal, Rajiv; Rendon, Ricardo; Klotz, Laurence H; Sugar, Linda; Sherman, Christopher; Izawa, Jonathan; Bell, David; Stanimirovic, Aleksandra; Venkateswaran, Vasundara; Diamandis, Eleftherios P; Yu, Changhong; Loblaw, D Andrew; Narod, Steven A

2011-08-01

Prostate cancer risk calculators incorporate many factors to evaluate an individual's risk for prostate cancer. We validated two common North American-based, prostate cancer risk calculators. We conducted a prospective, multi-institutional study of 2,130 patients who underwent a prostate biopsy for prostate cancer detection from five centers. We evaluated the performance of the Sunnybrook nomogram-based prostate cancer risk calculator (SRC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) -based risk calculator (PRC) to predict the presence of any cancer and high-grade cancer. We examined discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis techniques to evaluate the prediction models. Of the 2,130 patients, 867 men (40.7%) were found to have cancer, and 1,263 (59.3%) did not have cancer. Of the patients with cancer, 403 (46.5%) had a Gleason score of 7 or more. The area under the [concentration-time] curve (AUC) for the SRC was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.69); the AUC for the PRC was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64). The AUC was higher for predicting aggressive disease from the SRC (0.72; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.75) compared with that from the PRC (0.67; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.70). Decision curve analyses showed that the SRC performed better than the PRC for risk thresholds of more than 30% for any cancer and more than 15% for aggressive cancer. The SRC performed better than the PRC, but neither one added clinical benefit for risk thresholds of less than 30%. Further research is needed to improve the AUCs of the risk calculators, particularly for higher-grade cancer.

Time of death of victims found in cold water environment.

PubMed

Karhunen, Pekka J; Goebeler, Sirkka; Winberg, Olli; Tuominen, Markku

2008-04-07

Limited data is available on the application of post-mortem temperature methods to non-standard conditions, especially in problematic real life cases in which the body of the victim is found in cold water environment. Here we present our experience on two cases with known post-mortem times. A 14-year-old girl (rectal temperature 15.5 degrees C) was found assaulted and drowned after a rainy cold night (+5 degrees C) in wet clothing (four layers) at the bottom of a shallow ditch, lying in non-flowing water. The post-mortem time turned out to be 15-16 h. Four days later, at the same time in the morning, after a cold (+/- 0 degrees C) night, a young man (rectal temperature 10.8 degrees C) was found drowned in a shallow cold drain (+4 degrees C) wearing similar clothing (four layers) and being exposed to almost similar environmental and weather conditions, except of flow (7.7 l/s or 0.3 m/s) in the drain. The post-mortem time was deduced to be 10-12 h. We tested the applicability of five practical methods to estimate time of death. Henssge's temperature-time of death nomogram method with correction factors was the most versatile and gave also most accurate results, although there is limited data on choosing of correction factors. In the first case, the right correction factor was close to 1.0 (recommended 1.1-1.2), suggesting that wet clothing acted like dry clothing in slowing down body cooling. In the second case, the right correction factor was between 0.3 and 0.5, similar to the recommended 0.35 for naked bodies in flowing water.

Very-high-risk localized prostate cancer: definition and outcomes.

PubMed

Sundi, D; Wang, V M; Pierorazio, P M; Han, M; Bivalacqua, T J; Ball, M W; Antonarakis, E S; Partin, A W; Schaeffer, E M; Ross, A E

2014-03-01

Outcomes in men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) can vary substantially-some will have excellent cancer-specific survival, whereas others will experience early metastasis even after aggressive local treatments. Current nomograms, which yield continuous risk probabilities, do not separate high-risk PCa into distinct sub-strata. Here, we derive a binary definition of very-high-risk (VHR) localized PCa to aid in risk stratification at diagnosis and selection of therapy. We queried the Johns Hopkins radical prostatectomy database to identify 753 men with NCCN high-risk localized PCa (Gleason sum 8-10, PSA >20 ng ml(-1), or clinical stage ≥T3). Twenty-eight alternate permutations of adverse grade, stage and cancer volume were compared by their hazard ratios for metastasis and cancer-specific mortality. VHR criteria with top-ranking hazard ratios were further evaluated by multivariable analyses and inclusion of a clinically meaningful proportion of the high-risk cohort. The VHR cohort was best defined by primary pattern 5 present on biopsy, or ≥5 cores with Gleason sum 8-10, or multiple NCCN high-risk features. These criteria encompassed 15.1% of the NCCN high-risk cohort. Compared with other high-risk men, VHR men were at significantly higher risk for metastasis (hazard ratio 2.75) and cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.44) (P<0.001 for both). Among high-risk men, VHR men also had significantly worse 10-year metastasis-free survival (37% vs 78%) and cancer-specific survival (62% vs 90%). Men who meet VHR criteria form a subgroup within the current NCCN high-risk classification who have particularly poor oncological outcomes. Use of these characteristics to distinguish VHR localized PCa may help in counseling and selection optimal candidates for multimodal treatments or clinical trials.

Echocardiographic definition and surgical decision-making in unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect: a Congenital Heart Surgeons' Society multiinstitutional study.

PubMed

Jegatheeswaran, Anusha; Pizarro, Christian; Caldarone, Christopher A; Cohen, Meryl S; Baffa, Jeanne M; Gremmels, David B; Mertens, Luc; Morell, Victor O; Williams, William G; Blackstone, Eugene H; McCrindle, Brian W; Overman, David M

2010-09-14

Although identification of unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) is obvious when extreme, exact criteria to define the limits of unbalanced are not available. We sought to validate an atrioventricular valve index (AVVI) (left atrioventricular valve area/total atrioventricular valve area, centimeters squared) as a discriminator of balanced and unbalanced forms of complete AVSD and to characterize the association of AVVI with surgical strategies and outcomes. Diagnostic echocardiograms and hospital records of 356 infants with complete AVSD at 4 Congenital Heart Surgeons' Society (CHSS) institutions (2000-2006) were reviewed and AVVI measured (n=315). Patients were classified as unbalanced if AVVI≤0.4 (right dominant) or ≥0.6 (left dominant). Surgical strategy and outcomes were examined across the range of AVVI. Competing risks analysis until the time of commitment to a surgical strategy examined 4 end states: biventricular repair (BVR), univentricular repair (UVR), pulmonary artery banding (PAB), and death before surgery. A prediction nomogram for surgical strategy based on AVVI was developed. The majority of patients had balanced AVSD (0.4

Predicting Relapse in Patients With Medulloblastoma by Integrating Evidence From Clinical and Genomic Features

PubMed Central

Tamayo, Pablo; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tsherniak, Aviad; Greulich, Heidi; Ambrogio, Lauren; Schouten-van Meeteren, Netteke; Zhou, Tianni; Buxton, Allen; Kool, Marcel; Meyerson, Matthew; Pomeroy, Scott L.; Mesirov, Jill P.

2011-01-01

Purpose Despite significant progress in the molecular understanding of medulloblastoma, stratification of risk in patients remains a challenge. Focus has shifted from clinical parameters to molecular markers, such as expression of specific genes and selected genomic abnormalities, to improve accuracy of treatment outcome prediction. Here, we show how integration of high-level clinical and genomic features or risk factors, including disease subtype, can yield more comprehensive, accurate, and biologically interpretable prediction models for relapse versus no-relapse classification. We also introduce a novel Bayesian nomogram indicating the amount of evidence that each feature contributes on a patient-by-patient basis. Patients and Methods A Bayesian cumulative log-odds model of outcome was developed from a training cohort of 96 children treated for medulloblastoma, starting with the evidence provided by clinical features of metastasis and histology (model A) and incrementally adding the evidence from gene-expression–derived features representing disease subtype–independent (model B) and disease subtype–dependent (model C) pathways, and finally high-level copy-number genomic abnormalities (model D). The models were validated on an independent test cohort (n = 78). Results On an independent multi-institutional test data set, models A to D attain an area under receiver operating characteristic (au-ROC) curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.84), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.86), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.90), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.88), respectively, for predicting relapse versus no relapse. Conclusion The proposed models C and D outperform the current clinical classification schema (au-ROC, 0.68), our previously published eight-gene outcome signature (au-ROC, 0.71), and several new schemas recently proposed in the literature for medulloblastoma risk stratification. PMID:21357789

Utility of the RENAL index -Radius; Exophytic/endophytic; Nearness to sinus; Anterior/posterior; Location relative to polar lines- in the management of renal masses.

PubMed

Konstantinidis, C; Trilla, E; Lorente, D; Morote, J

2016-12-01

The growing incidence of renal masses and the wide range of available treatments require predictive tools that support the decision making process. The RENAL index -Radius; Exophytic/endophytic; Nearness to sinus; Anterior/posterior; Location relative to polar lines- helps standardise the anatomy of a renal mass by differentiating 3 groups of complexity. Since the introduction of the index, there have been a growing number of studies, some of which have been conflicting, that have evaluated the clinical utility of its implementation. To analyse the scientific evidence on the relationship between the RENAL index and the main strategies for managing renal masses. A search was conducted in the Medline database, which found 576 references on the RENAL index. In keeping with the PRISM Declaration, we selected 100 abstracts and ultimately reviewed 96 articles. The RENAL index has a high degree of interobserver correlation and has been validated as a predictive nomogram of histological results. In active surveillance, the index has been related to the tumour growth rate and probability of nephrectomy. In ablative therapy, the index has been associated with therapeutic efficacy, complications and tumour recurrence. In partial nephrectomy, the index has been related to the rate of complications, conversion to radical surgery, ischaemia time, function preservation and tumour recurrence, a finding also observed in radical nephrectomy. The RENAL index is an objective, reproducible and useful system as a predictive tool of highly relevant clinical parameters such as the rate of complications, ischaemia time, renal function and oncological results in the various currently accepted treatments for the management of renal masses. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Gleason Score (GS) upgrading on subsequent prostatectomy: a single Institution study in a cohort of patients with GS 6

PubMed Central

Mehta, Vikas; Rycyna, Kevin; Baesens, Bart MM; Barkan, Güliz A; Paner, Gladell P; Flanigan, Robert C; Wojcik, Eva M; Venkataraman, Girish

2012-01-01

Background Biopsy Gleason score (bGS) remains an important prognostic indicator for adverse outcomes in Prostate Cancer (PCA). In the light of recent studies purporting difference in prognostic outcomes for the subgroups of GS7 group (primary Gleason pattern 4 vs. 3), upgrading of a bGS of 6 to a GS≥7 has serious implications. We sought to identify pre-operative factors associated with upgrading in a cohort of GS6 patients who underwent prostatectomy. Design We identified 281 cases of GS6 PCA on biopsy with subsequent prostatectomies. Using data on pre-operative variables (age, PSA, biopsy pathology parameters), logistic regression models (LRM) were developed to identify factors that could be used to predict upgrading to GS≥7 on subsequent prostatectomy. A decision tree (DT) was constructed. Results 92 of 281 cases (32.7%) were upgraded on subsequent prostatectomy. LRM identified a model with two variables with statistically significant ability to predict upgrading, including pre-biopsy PSA (Odds Ratio 8.66; 2.03-37.49, 95% CI) and highest percentage of cancer at any single biopsy site (Odds Ratio 1.03, 1.01-1.05, 95% CI). This two-parameter model yielded an area under curve of 0.67. The decision tree was constructed using only 3 leave nodes; with a test set classification accuracy of 70%. Conclusions A simplistic model using clinical and biopsy data is able to predict the likelihood of upgrading of GS with an acceptable level of certainty. External validation of these findings along with development of a nomogram will aid in better stratifying the cohort of low risk patients as based on the GS. PMID:22949931

Glomerular filtration rate as measured by serum cystatin C is an important determinant of plasma homocysteine and serum methylmalonic acid in the elderly.

PubMed

Lewerin, C; Ljungman, S; Nilsson-Ehle, H

2007-01-01

To explore the dependence of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) on plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) and serum methylmalonic acid (MMA), as well as the consequences for the diagnosis of cobalamin and/or folic acid deficiency in an elderly community-dwelling population. Population-based study of 209 community-dwelling subjects, mean age 76 years. Four months' treatment study with oral vitamin B(12), folic acid and B(6) or placebo. Determinants of tHcy and MMA: cystatin C as a marker of GFR and serum/plasma concentrations of vitamin B(12) and folate, age and sex. Elevated cystatin C (>1.55 mg L(-1)) was found in 31.3% (men) and 13.0% (women). Elevated tHcy (> or = 16 micromol L(-1)) occurred in 53% and elevated MMA (> or = 0.34 micromol L(-1)) in 11% of all subjects. When GFR was taken into consideration, the proportion of elevated tHcy was reduced to 10% (20/209), whilst the proportion of elevated MMA was unchanged. Cystatin C was correlated with tHcy (r = 0.45, P < 0.001) and with MMA (r =0.28, P < 0.001), independently of vitamin B(12)- and folate status. According to multiple regression, independent predictors for tHcy were plasma folate (15%), cystatin C (11%) and vitamin B(12) (4%), and for MMA, cystatin C (8%) and vitamin B(12) (2%). The prevalence of elevated tHcy may be overestimated in elderly populations unless GFR is taken into account. Nomograms for evaluation of tHcy and MMA in relation to both cystatin C and serum creatinine are presented.

A quick inexpensive laboratory method in acute paracetamol poisoning could improve risk assessment, management and resource utilization.

PubMed

Senarathna, S M D K Ganga; Ranganathan, Shalini S; Buckley, Nick; Soysa, S S S B D Preethi; Fernandopulle, B M Rohini

2012-01-01

Acute paracetamol poisoning is an emerging problem in Sri Lanka. Management guidelines recommend ingested dose and serum paracetamol concentrations to assess the risk. Our aim was to determine the usefulness of the patient's history of an ingested dose of >150 mg/kg and paracetamol concentration obtained by a simple colorimetric method to assess risk in patients with acute paracetamol poisoning. Serum paracetamol concentrations were determined in 100 patients with a history of paracetamol overdose using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC); (reference method). The results were compared to those obtained with a colorimetric method. The utility of risk assessment by reported dose ingested and colorimetric analysis were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the history of ingested dose was 0.578 and there was no dose cut-off providing useful risk categorization. Both analytical methods had less than 5% intra- and inter-batch variation and were accurate on spiked samples. The time from blood collection to result was six times faster and ten times cheaper for colorimetry (30 minutes, US$2) than for HPLC (180 minutes, US$20). The correlation coefficient between the paracetamol levels by the two methods was 0.85. The agreement on clinical risk categorization on the standard nomogram was also good (Kappa = 0.62, sensitivity 81%, specificity 89%). History of dose ingested alone greatly over-estimated the number of patients who need antidotes and it was a poor predictor of risk. Paracetamol concentrations by colorimetry are rapid and inexpensive. The use of these would greatly improve the assessment of risk and greatly reduce unnecessary expenditure on antidotes.

A nomogram for predicting distant brain failure in patients treated with gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N.; Peiffer, Ann M.; Lucas, John T.; Isom, Scott; Kuremsky, J. Griff; Urbanic, James J.; Bourland, J. Daniel; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; Shaw, Edward G.; Chan, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Background We review our single institution experience to determine predictive factors for early and delayed distant brain failure (DBF) after radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases. Materials and methods Between January 2000 and December 2010, a total of 464 patients were treated with Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without WBRT for primary management of newly diagnosed brain metastases. Histology, systemic disease, RPA class, and number of metastases were evaluated as possible predictors of DBF rate. DBF rates were determined by serial MRI. Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate rate of DBF. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression. Results Median number of lesions treated was 1 (range 1–13). Median time to DBF was 4.9 months. Twenty-seven percent of patients ultimately required WBRT with median time to WBRT of 5.6 months. Progressive systemic disease (χ2= 16.748, P < .001), number of metastases at SRS (χ2 = 27.216, P < .001), discovery of new metastases at time of SRS (χ2 = 9.197, P < .01), and histology (χ2 = 12.819, P < .07) were factors that predicted for earlier time to distant failure. High risk histologic subtypes (melanoma, her2 negative breast, χ2 = 11.020, P < .001) and low risk subtypes (her2 + breast, χ2 = 11.343, P < .001) were identified. Progressive systemic disease (χ2 = 9.549, P < .01), number of brain metastases (χ2 = 16.953, P < .001), minimum SRS dose (χ2 = 21.609, P < .001), and widespread metastatic disease (χ2 = 29.396, P < .001) were predictive of shorter time to WBRT. Conclusion Systemic disease, number of metastases, and histology are factors that predict distant failure rate after primary radiosurgical management of brain metastases. PMID:24558022

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S.; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims: Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. Methods: The development cohort included patients aged 16–89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. Results: The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1–29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. Conclusions: An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. PMID:27647858

The Creating an Optimal Warfarin Nomogram (CROWN) Study

PubMed Central

Perlstein, Todd S.; Goldhaber, Samuel Z.; Nelson, Kerrie; Joshi, Victoria; Morgan, T. Vance; Lesko, Lawrence J.; Lee, Joo-Yeon; Gobburu, Jogarao; Schoenfeld, David; Kucherlapati, Raju; Freeman, Mason W.; Creager, Mark A.

2014-01-01

A significant proportion of warfarin dose variability is explained by variation in the genotypes of the cytochrome P450 CYP2C9 and the vitamin K epoxide reductase complex, VKORC1, enzymes that influence warfarin metabolism and sensitivity, respectively. We sought to develop an optimal pharmacogenetic warfarin dosing algorithm that incorporated clinical and genetic information. We enroled patients initiating warfarin therapy. Genotyping was performed of the VKORC1, –1639G>A, the CYP2C9*2, 430C>T, and the CYP2C9*3, 1075C>A genotypes. The initial warfarin dosing algorithm (Algorithm A) was based upon established clinical practice and published warfarin pharmacogenetic information. Subsequent dosing algorithms (Algorithms B and Algorithm C) were derived from pharmacokinetic / pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling of warfarin dose, international normalised ratio (INR), clinical and genetic factors from patients treated by the preceding algorithm(s). The primary outcome was the time in the therapeutic range, considered an INR of 1.8 to 3.2. A total of 344 subjects are included in the study analyses. The mean percentage time within the therapeutic range for each subject increased progressively from Algorithm A to Algorithm C from 58.9 (22.0), to 59.7 (23.0), to 65.8 (16.9) percent (p = 0.04). Improvement also occurred in most secondary endpoints, which included the per-patient percentage of INRs outside of the therapeutic range (p = 0.004), the time to the first therapeutic INR (p = 0.07), and the time to achieve stable therapeutic anticoagulation (p < 0.001). In conclusion, warfarin pharmacogenetic dosing can be optimised in real time utilising observed PK/PD information in an adaptive fashion. Clinical Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00401414) PMID:22116191

A possible new approach in the prediction of late gestational hypertension: The role of the fetal aortic intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Visentin, Silvia; Londero, Ambrogio P; Camerin, Martina; Grisan, Enrico; Cosmi, Erich

2017-01-01

The aim was to determine the predictive role of combined screening for late-onset gestational hypertension by fetal ultrasound measurements, third trimester uterine arteries (UtAs) Doppler imaging, and maternal history. This prospective study on singleton pregnancies was conducted at the tertiary center of Maternal and Fetal Medicine of the University of Padua during the period between January 2012 and December 2014. Ultrasound examination (fetal biometry, fetal wellbeing, maternal Doppler study, fetal abdominal aorta intima-media thickness [aIMT], and fetal kidney volumes), clinical data (mother age, prepregnancy body mass index [BMI], and parity), and pregnancy outcomes were collected. The P value <0.05 was defined significant considering a 2-sided alternative hypothesis. The distribution normality of variables were assessed using Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test. Data were presented by mean (±standard deviation), median and interquartile range, or percentage and absolute values. We considered data from 1381 ultrasound examinations at 29 to 32 weeks' gestation, and in 73 cases late gestational hypertension developed after 34 weeks' gestation. The final multivariate model found that fetal aIMT as well as fetal umbilical artery pulsatility index (PI), maternal age, maternal prepregnacy BMI, parity, and mean PI of maternal UtAs, assessed at ultrasound examination of 29 to 32 weeks' gestation, were significant and independent predictors for the development of gestational hypertension after 34 weeks' gestation. The area under the curve of the model was 81.07% (95% confidence interval, 75.83%-86.32%). A nomogram was developed starting from multivariate logistic regression coefficients. Late-gestational hypertension could be independently predicted by fetal aIMT assessment at 29 to 32 weeks' gestation, ultrasound Doppler waveforms, and maternal clinical parameters.

A possible new approach in the prediction of late gestational hypertension

PubMed Central

Visentin, Silvia; Londero, Ambrogio P.; Camerin, Martina; Grisan, Enrico; Cosmi, Erich

2017-01-01

Abstract The aim was to determine the predictive role of combined screening for late-onset gestational hypertension by fetal ultrasound measurements, third trimester uterine arteries (UtAs) Doppler imaging, and maternal history. This prospective study on singleton pregnancies was conducted at the tertiary center of Maternal and Fetal Medicine of the University of Padua during the period between January 2012 and December 2014. Ultrasound examination (fetal biometry, fetal wellbeing, maternal Doppler study, fetal abdominal aorta intima-media thickness [aIMT], and fetal kidney volumes), clinical data (mother age, prepregnancy body mass index [BMI], and parity), and pregnancy outcomes were collected. The P value <0.05 was defined significant considering a 2-sided alternative hypothesis. The distribution normality of variables were assessed using Kolmogorov–Smirnoff test. Data were presented by mean (±standard deviation), median and interquartile range, or percentage and absolute values. We considered data from 1381 ultrasound examinations at 29 to 32 weeks’ gestation, and in 73 cases late gestational hypertension developed after 34 weeks’ gestation. The final multivariate model found that fetal aIMT as well as fetal umbilical artery pulsatility index (PI), maternal age, maternal prepregnacy BMI, parity, and mean PI of maternal UtAs, assessed at ultrasound examination of 29 to 32 weeks’ gestation, were significant and independent predictors for the development of gestational hypertension after 34 weeks’ gestation. The area under the curve of the model was 81.07% (95% confidence interval, 75.83%–86.32%). A nomogram was developed starting from multivariate logistic regression coefficients. Late-gestational hypertension could be independently predicted by fetal aIMT assessment at 29 to 32 weeks’ gestation, ultrasound Doppler waveforms, and maternal clinical parameters. PMID:28079791

Can the prognosis of individual patients with glioblastoma be predicted using an online calculator?

PubMed Central

Parks, Christopher; Heald, James; Hall, Gregory; Kamaly-Asl, Ian

2013-01-01

Background In an exploratory subanalysis of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer and National Cancer Institute of Canada (EORTC/NCIC) trial data, Gorlia et al. identified a variety of factors that were predictive of overall survival, including therapy administered, age, extent of surgery, mini-mental score, administration of corticosteroids, World Health Organization (WHO) performance status, and O-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status. Gorlia et al. developed 3 nomograms, each intended to predict the survival times of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma on the basis of individual-specific combinations of prognostic factors. These are available online as a “GBM Calculator” and are intended for use in patient counseling. This study is an external validation of this calculator. Method One hundred eighty-seven patients from 2 UK neurosurgical units who had histologically confirmed glioblastoma (WHO grade IV) had their information at diagnosis entered into the GBM calculator. A record was made of the actual and predicted median survival time for each patient. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the accuracy, precision, correlation, and discrimination of the calculator. Results The calculator gives both inaccurate and imprecise predictions. Only 23% of predictions were within 25% of the actual survival, and the percentage bias is 140% in our series. The coefficient of variance is 76%, where a smaller percentage would indicate greater precision. There is only a weak positive correlation between the predicted and actual survival among patients (R2 of 0.07). Discrimination is inadequate as measured by a C-index of 0.62. Conclusions The authors would not recommend the use of this tool in patient counseling. If departments were considering its use, we would advise that a similar validating exercise be undertaken. PMID:23543729

SU-E-T-453: Optimization of Dose Gradient for Gamma Knife Radiosurgery.

PubMed

Sheth, N; Chen, Y; Yang, J

2012-06-01

The goals of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) are the ablation of target tissue and sparing of critical normal tissue. We develop tools to aid in the selection of collimation and prescription (Rx) isodose line to optimize the dose gradient for single isocenter intracranial stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) with GammaKnife 4C utilizing the updated physics data in GammaPlan v10.1. Single isocenter intracranial SRS plans were created to treat the center of a solid water anthropomorphism head phantom for each GammaKnife collimator (4 mm, 8 mm, 14 mm, and 18 mm). The dose gradient, defined as the difference of effective radii of spheres equal to half and full Rx volumes, and Rx treatment volume was analyzed for isodoses from 99% to 20% of Rx. The dosimetric data on Rx volume and dose gradient vs. Rx isodose for each collimator was compiled into an easy to read nomogram as well as plotted graphically. The 4, 8, 14, and 18 mm collimators have the sharpest dose gradient at the 64%, 70%, 76%, and 77% Rx isodose lines, respectively. This corresponds to treating 4.77 mm, 8.86 mm, 14.78 mm, and 18.77 mm diameter targets with dose gradients radii of 1.06 mm, 1.63 mm, 2.54 mm, and 3.17 mm, respectively. We analyzed the dosimetric data for the most recent version of GammaPlan treatment planning software to develop tools that when applied clinically will aid in the selection of a collimator and Rx isodose line for optimal dose gradient and target coverage for single isocenter intracranial SRS with GammaKnife 4C. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

The development and validation of different decision-making tools to predict urine culture growth out of urine flow cytometry parameter.

PubMed

Müller, Martin; Seidenberg, Ruth; Schuh, Sabine K; Exadaktylos, Aristomenis K; Schechter, Clyde B; Leichtle, Alexander B; Hautz, Wolf E

2018-01-01

Patients presenting with suspected urinary tract infection are common in every day emergency practice. Urine flow cytometry has replaced microscopic urine evaluation in many emergency departments, but interpretation of the results remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop and validate tools that predict urine culture growth out of urine flow cytometry parameter. This retrospective study included all adult patients that presented in a large emergency department between January and July 2017 with a suspected urinary tract infection and had a urine flow cytometry as well as a urine culture obtained. The objective was to identify urine flow cytometry parameters that reliably predict urine culture growth and mixed flora growth. The data set was split into a training (70%) and a validation set (30%) and different decision-making approaches were developed and validated. Relevant urine culture growth (respectively mixed flora growth) was found in 40.2% (7.2% respectively) of the 613 patients included. The number of leukocytes and bacteria in flow cytometry were highly associated with urine culture growth, but mixed flora growth could not be sufficiently predicted from the urine flow cytometry parameters. A decision tree, predictive value figures, a nomogram, and a cut-off table to predict urine culture growth from bacteria and leukocyte count were developed, validated and compared. Urine flow cytometry parameters are insufficient to predict mixed flora growth. However, the prediction of urine culture growth based on bacteria and leukocyte count is highly accurate and the developed tools should be used as part of the decision-making process of ordering a urine culture or starting an antibiotic therapy if a urogenital infection is suspected.

The development and validation of different decision-making tools to predict urine culture growth out of urine flow cytometry parameter

PubMed Central

Seidenberg, Ruth; Schuh, Sabine K.; Exadaktylos, Aristomenis K.; Schechter, Clyde B.; Leichtle, Alexander B.; Hautz, Wolf E.

2018-01-01

Objective Patients presenting with suspected urinary tract infection are common in every day emergency practice. Urine flow cytometry has replaced microscopic urine evaluation in many emergency departments, but interpretation of the results remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop and validate tools that predict urine culture growth out of urine flow cytometry parameter. Methods This retrospective study included all adult patients that presented in a large emergency department between January and July 2017 with a suspected urinary tract infection and had a urine flow cytometry as well as a urine culture obtained. The objective was to identify urine flow cytometry parameters that reliably predict urine culture growth and mixed flora growth. The data set was split into a training (70%) and a validation set (30%) and different decision-making approaches were developed and validated. Results Relevant urine culture growth (respectively mixed flora growth) was found in 40.2% (7.2% respectively) of the 613 patients included. The number of leukocytes and bacteria in flow cytometry were highly associated with urine culture growth, but mixed flora growth could not be sufficiently predicted from the urine flow cytometry parameters. A decision tree, predictive value figures, a nomogram, and a cut-off table to predict urine culture growth from bacteria and leukocyte count were developed, validated and compared. Conclusions Urine flow cytometry parameters are insufficient to predict mixed flora growth. However, the prediction of urine culture growth based on bacteria and leukocyte count is highly accurate and the developed tools should be used as part of the decision-making process of ordering a urine culture or starting an antibiotic therapy if a urogenital infection is suspected. PMID:29474463

Survival Prediction in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma by Quantitative Computed Tomography Image Analysis.

PubMed

Attiyeh, Marc A; Chakraborty, Jayasree; Doussot, Alexandre; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Mainarich, Shiana; Gönen, Mithat; Balachandran, Vinod P; D'Angelica, Michael I; DeMatteo, Ronald P; Jarnagin, William R; Kingham, T Peter; Allen, Peter J; Simpson, Amber L; Do, Richard K

2018-04-01

Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal cancer with no established a priori markers of survival. Existing nomograms rely mainly on post-resection data and are of limited utility in directing surgical management. This study investigated the use of quantitative computed tomography (CT) features to preoperatively assess survival for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients. A prospectively maintained database identified consecutive chemotherapy-naive patients with CT angiography and resected PDAC between 2009 and 2012. Variation in CT enhancement patterns was extracted from the tumor region using texture analysis, a quantitative image analysis tool previously described in the literature. Two continuous survival models were constructed, with 70% of the data (training set) using Cox regression, first based only on preoperative serum cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 levels and image features (model A), and then on CA19-9, image features, and the Brennan score (composite pathology score; model B). The remaining 30% of the data (test set) were reserved for independent validation. A total of 161 patients were included in the analysis. Training and test sets contained 113 and 48 patients, respectively. Quantitative image features combined with CA19-9 achieved a c-index of 0.69 [integrated Brier score (IBS) 0.224] on the test data, while combining CA19-9, imaging, and the Brennan score achieved a c-index of 0.74 (IBS 0.200) on the test data. We present two continuous survival prediction models for resected PDAC patients. Quantitative analysis of CT texture features is associated with overall survival. Further work includes applying the model to an external dataset to increase the sample size for training and to determine its applicability.

LASIK flap characteristics using the Moria M2 microkeratome with the 90-microm single use head.

PubMed

Aslanides, Ioannis M; Tsiklis, Nikolaos S; Astyrakakis, Nikolaos I; Pallikaris, Ioannis G; Jankov, Mirko R

2007-01-01

To evaluate the accuracy and consistency of corneal flap thickness, horizontal diameter, and hinge size with the Moria M2 90-microm single use head. Fifty-two myopic patients (104 eyes), mean age 32.6 years, underwent bilateral LASIK with a superior hinged flap using the Moria M2 microkeratome (90-microm single use head). Prospective evaluation included flap thickness (subtraction method), diameter, hinge size, interface particles, intraoperative complications, and visual recovery. The mean preoperative spherical equivalent refraction was -5.72 +/- 2.59 diopters (D) (range: -2.88 to -10.75 D) and -5.84 +/- 2.73 D (range: -3.13 to -9.38 D) for right and left eyes, respectively. The mean preoperative central corneal thickness was 548 +/- 24 microm and 547 +/- 25 microm for right and left eyes, respectively. The mean preoperative steepest K was 44.12 +/- 1.28 D and 44.41 +/- 1.27 D for right and left eyes, respectively. Corneal diameter (white-to-white) was 12 +/- 0.4 mm and 11.9 +/- 0.4 mm for right and left eyes, respectively. The mean postoperative flap thickness was 109 +/- 18 microm (range: 67 to 152 microm) and 103 +/- 15 microm (range: 65 to 151 microm) for right and left eyes, respectively. The mean postoperative flap diameter was 9.4 +/- 0.3 mm (expected mean according to the nomogram given by the company was 9.5 mm). The mean postoperative hinge chord was 4.4 +/- 0.4 mm (expected mean 4.2 mm). No interface particles were detected on slit-lamp examination. The Moria M2 90-microm single use head is safe with reasonable predictability for LASIK flap creation.

Carboxyhemoglobin levels as a predictor of risk for significant hyperbilirubinemia in African-American DAT(+) infants.

PubMed

Schutzman, D L; Gatien, E; Ajayi, S; Wong, R J

2016-05-01

To compare the degree of hemolysis in a group of direct antiglobulin test (DAT) positive (pos) African-American (AA) infants as measured by carboxyhemoglobin corrected (COHbc) for carbon monoxide in ambient air to a similar group of DAT negative (neg) ABO incompatible infants and a group without blood group incompatibility. To determine if COHbc is a better predictor of significant hyperbilirubinemia than DAT status. A prospective study of 180 AA infants from the Well-Baby Nursery of an inner city community hospital, all of whose mothers were type O pos. Infants (60) were ABO incompatible DAT pos, 60 were ABO incompatible DAT neg and 60 were type O(+). Blood for COHbc was drawn at the time of the infants' initial bilirubin and the infants' precise percentile on the Bhutani nomogram was calculated. Mean COHbc of type O(+) infants was 0.76±0.21 and 0.78±0.24% for ABO incompatible DAT neg infants (P=0.63). Mean CoHbc for the ABO incompatible DAT pos infants was 1.03±0.41% (P<0.0001 compared with both type O and DAT neg infants). Optimal cutoff on the receiver operating characteristic curve for COHbc to determine the risk for being in the Bhutani curve high risk zone was COHbc >0.90% (area under the curve(AUC) 0.8113). This was similar to the AUC of the receiver operating characteristic curve using any titer strength of DAT pos as a cutoff (0.7960). Although not greatly superior to the titer strength of DAT pos, COHbc is useful in determining if the etiology of severe hyperbilirubinemia is a hemolytic process.

Utility of Decision Rules for Transcutaneous Bilirubin Measurements

PubMed Central

Burgos, Anthony E.; Flaherman, Valerie; Chung, Esther K.; Simpson, Elizabeth A.; Goyal, Neera K.; Von Kohorn, Isabelle; Dhepyasuwan, Niramol

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) meters are widely used for screening newborns for jaundice, with a total serum bilirubin (TSB) measurement indicated when the TcB value is classified as “positive” by using a decision rule. The goal of our study was to assess the clinical utility of 3 recommended TcB screening decision rules. METHODS: Paired TcB/TSB measurements were collected at 34 newborn nursery sites. At 27 sites (sample 1), newborns were routinely screened with a TcB measurement. For sample 2, sites that typically screen with TSB levels also obtained a TcB measurement for the study. Three decision rules to define a positive TcB measurement were evaluated: ≥75th percentile on the Bhutani nomogram, 70% of the phototherapy level, and within 3 mg/dL of the phototherapy threshold. The primary outcome was a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The rate of false-negative TcB screens and percentage of blood draws avoided were calculated for each decision rule. RESULTS: For sample 1, data were analyzed on 911 paired TcB-TSB measurements from a total of 8316 TcB measurements. False-negative rates were <10% with all decision rules; none identified all 31 newborns with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The percentage of blood draws avoided ranged from 79.4% to 90.7%. In sample 2, each rule correctly identified all 8 newborns with TSB levels at/above the phototherapy threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Although all of the decision rules can be used effectively to screen newborns for jaundice, each will “miss” some infants with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. PMID:27244792

An open-label randomized controlled trial of low molecular weight heparin compared to heparin and coumadin for the treatment of venous thromboembolic events in children: the REVIVE trial.

PubMed

Massicotte, Patricia; Julian, Jim A; Gent, Michael; Shields, Karen; Marzinotto, Velma; Szechtman, Barbara; Andrew, Maureen

2003-01-25

Venous thromboembolic events (VTE) are serious complications in children and for which the standard of care, unfractionated heparin followed by oral anticoagulation (UFH/OA), is problematic. The objective of REVIVE was to compare the efficacy and safety of a low molecular weight heparin (reviparin-sodium) to UFH/OA for the treatment of VTE in children. This multicenter, open-label study, with blinded central outcome adjudication, randomized patients with objectively confirmed VTE to receive either reviparin-sodium or UFH/OA. Dose adjustments were made using nomograms. The efficacy outcome was based on recurrent VTE and death due to VTE during the 3-month treatment period. The safety outcomes were major bleeding, minor bleeding and death. Due to slow patient accrual, REVIVE was closed prematurely. At 3 months, with reviparin-sodium, 2/36 patients (5.6%) had recurrent VTE or death compared to 4/40 patients (10.0%) receiving UFH/OA (odds ratio=0.53; 95% CI=(0.05, 4.00); Fisher's exact test: 2P=0.677). There were 7 major bleeds, 2/36 (5.6%) in the reviparin-sodium group and 5/40 (12.5%) in UFH/OA group (odds ratio=0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.04, 2.76); Fisher's exact test: P=0.435). There were 5 deaths during the study period, 1 (2.8%) in the reviparin-sodium group and 4 (10.0%) in the UFH/OA group. All five deaths were unrelated to VTE but one was due to an intracranial hemorrhage in the UFH/OA group. Although limited by small sample size, REVIVE provides valuable information on the incidence of recurrent VTE, major bleeding and problematic issues associated with therapy of VTE in children.

'Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator' mobile applications (Apps): a systematic review and scoring using the validated user version of the Mobile Application Rating Scale (uMARS).

PubMed

Adam, Ahmed; Hellig, Julian C; Perera, Marlon; Bolton, Damien; Lawrentschuk, Nathan

2018-04-01

The use of mobile phone applications (Apps) has modernised the conventional practice of medicine. The diagnostic ability of the current Apps in prostate specific antigen monitoring, and its diagnostic ability within prostate cancer (PCa) risk calculators have not yet been appraised. We aimed to review, rate and assess the everyday functionality, and utility of all the currently available PCa risk calculator Apps. A systematic search on iTunes, Google Play Store, Blackberry World and Windows Apps Store, was performed on 23/11/2017, using the search term 'prostate cancer risk calculator'. After applying the exclusion criteria, each App was individually assessed and rated using pre-set criteria and grading was performed using the validated uMARS scale. In total, 83 Apps were retrieved. After applying our exclusion criteria, only 9 Apps were relevant, with 2 duplicated, and the remaining 7 were suitable for critical review. Data sizes ranged from 414 kb to 10.1 Mb. The cost of the Apps ranged from South African rand (ZAR) 0.00 to ZAR 29.99. The overall mean category uMARS scores ranged from 2.8/5 to 4.5/5. Apps such as Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, Coral-Prostate Cancer Nomogram Calculator and CPC Risk Calculator, performed the best. The current PCa risk calculator mobile Apps available may be beneficial in counselling the concerned at risk patient. These Apps have potential to assist both the patient and the urologist alike. The PCa risk calculator App 'predictability' may be further enhanced by the incorporation of newly validated risk factors and predictors for PCa.

Waist-to-Hip Ratio versus Body Mass Index as Predictor of Obesity-Related Pregnancy Outcomes.

PubMed

McDonnold, Mollie; Mele, Lisa M; Myatt, Leslie; Hauth, John C; Leveno, Kenneth J; Reddy, Uma M; Mercer, Brian M

2016-05-01

Objective In nonpregnant populations the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) is a better predictor of obesity-related outcomes than body mass index (BMI). Our objective was to determine, in pregnancy, the relationship between these measures of obesity, and large-for-gestational age (LGA) and cesarean delivery (CD). Methods This is a secondary analysis of data from the Combined Antioxidant and Preeclampsia Prediction Study. Women with a WHR of ≥ 0.85 and 0.80 to 0.84 at 9 to 16 weeks gestation were compared with those with a WHR < 0.80. Women with early pregnancy BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m(2) (obese) and 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m(2) (overweight) were compared with those < 25.0 kg/m(2). LGA was defined as > 90% by Alexander nomogram. Univariable analysis, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curves were used. Results Data from 2,276 women were analyzed. After correcting for potential confounders, only BMI ≥ 30 was significantly associated with LGA (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.07, 1.35-3.16) while BMI 25.0-29.9 (aOR: 1.5, 0.98-2.28), WHR 0.8-0.84 (aOR: 1.33, 0.83-2.13), and WHR ≥ 0.85 (aOR: 1.05, 0.67-1.65) were not. Risk for CD was increased for women with elevated WHR and with higher BMI compared with normal. Conclusion WHR is not associated with LGA. While BMI performed better than WHR, neither was a strong predictor of LGA or need for CD in low-risk nulliparous women. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Evaluation of Süleymanköy (Diyarbakir, Eastern Turkey) and Seferihisar (Izmir, Western Turkey) Self Potential Anomalies with Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaftan, Ilknur; Sindirgi, Petek

2013-04-01

Self-potential (SP) is one of the oldest geophysical methods that provides important information about near-surface structures. Several methods have been developed to interpret SP data using simple geometries. This study investigated inverse solution of a buried, polarized sphere-shaped self-potential (SP ) anomaly via Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks ( MLPNN ). The polarization angle ( α ) and depth to the centre of sphere ( h )were estimated. The MLPNN is applied to synthetic and field SP data. In order to see the capability of the method in detecting the number of sources, MLPNN was applied to different spherical models at different depths and locations.. Additionally, the performance of MLPNN was tested by adding random noise to the same synthetic test data. The sphere model successfully obtained similar parameters under different S/N ratios. Then, MLPNN method was applied to two field examples. The first one is the cross section taken from the SP anomaly map of the Ergani-Süleymanköy (Turkey) copper mine. MLPNN was also applied to SP data from Seferihisar Izmir (Western Turkey) geothermal field. The MLPNN results showed good agreement with the original synthetic data set. The effect of The technique gave satisfactory results following the addition of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise levels. The MLPNN results were compared to other SP interpretation techniques, such as Normalized Full Gradient (NFG), inverse solution and nomogram methods. All of the techniques showed strong similarity. Consequently, the synthetic and field applications of this study show that MLPNN provides reliable evaluation of the self potential data modelled by the sphere model.

Prediction of Maternal Cytomegalovirus Serostatus in Early Pregnancy: A Retrospective Analysis in Western Europe

PubMed Central

Kuessel, Lorenz; Husslein, Heinrich; Marschalek, Julian; Brunner, Julia; Ristl, Robin; Popow-Kraupp, Theresia; Kiss, Herbert

2015-01-01

Background Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most prevalent congenital viral infection and thus places an enormous disease burden on newborn infants. Seroprevalence of maternal antibodies to CMV due to CMV exposure prior to pregnancy is currently the most important protective factor against congenital CMV disease. The aim of this study was to identify potential predictors, and to develop and evaluate a risk-predicting model for the maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy. Methods Maternal and paternal background information, as well as maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy from 882 pregnant women were analyzed. Women were divided into two groups based on their CMV serostatus, and were compared using univariate analysis. To predict serostatus based on epidemiological baseline characteristics, a multiple logistic regression model was calculated using stepwise model selection. Sensitivity and specificity were analyzed using ROC curves. A nomogram based on the model was developed. Results 646 women were CMV seropositive (73.2%), and 236 were seronegative (26.8%). The groups differed significantly with respect to maternal age (p = 0.006), gravidity (p<0.001), parity (p<0.001), use of assisted reproduction techniques (p = 0.018), maternal and paternal migration background (p<0.001), and maternal and paternal education level (p<0.001). ROC evaluation of the selected prediction model revealed an area under the curve of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.8–0.86), yielding sensitivity and specificity values of 0.69 and 0.86, respectively. Conclusion We identified predictors of maternal CMV serostatus in early pregnancy and developed a risk-predicting model based on baseline epidemiological characteristics. Our findings provide easy accessible information that can influence the counseling of pregnant woman in terms of their CMV-associated risk. PMID:26693714

Evaluation of a 30-gene paclitaxel, fluorouracil, doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy response predictor in a multicenter randomized trial in breast cancer

PubMed Central

Tabchy, Adel; Valero, Vicente; Vidaurre, Tatiana; Lluch, Ana; Gomez, Henry; Martin, Miguel; Qi, Yuan; Barajas-Figueroa, Luis Javier; Souchon, Eduardo; Coutant, Charles; Doimi, Franco D; Ibrahim, Nuhad K; Gong, Yun; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N; Hess, Kenneth R; Symmans, W Fraser; Pusztai, Lajos

2010-01-01

Purpose We examined in a prospective, randomized, international clinical trial the performance of a previously defined 30-gene predictor (DLDA-30) of pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative weekly paclitaxel and fluorouracil, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide (T/FAC) chemotherapy, and assessed if DLDA-30 also predicts increased sensitivity to FAC-only chemotherapy. We compared the pCR rates after T/FAC versus FAC×6 preoperative chemotherapy. We also performed an exploratory analysis to identify novel candidate genes that differentially predict response in the two treatment arms. Experimental Design 273 patients were randomly assigned to receive either weekly paclitaxel × 12 followed by FAC × 4 (T/FAC, n=138), or FAC × 6 (n=135) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. All patients underwent a pretreatment FNA biopsy of the tumor for gene expression profiling and treatment response prediction. Results The pCR rates were 19% and 9% in the T/FAC and FAC arms, respectively (p<0.05). In the T/FAC arm, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the genomic predictor was 38% (95%CI:21–56%), the negative predictive value (NPV) 88% (CI:77–95%) and the AUC 0.711. In the FAC arm, the PPV was 9% (CI:1–29%) and the AUC 0.584. This suggests that the genomic predictor may have regimen-specificity. Its performance was similar to a clinical variable-based predictor nomogram. Conclusions Gene expression profiling for prospective response prediction was feasible in this international trial. The 30-gene predictor can identify patients with greater than average sensitivity to T/FAC chemotherapy. However, it captured molecular equivalents of clinical phenotype. Next generation predictive markers will need to be developed separately for different molecular subsets of breast cancers. PMID:20829329

Natural history of chronic hepatitis B: what exactly has REVEAL revealed?

PubMed

Iloeje, Uchenna H; Yang, Hwai-I; Chen, Chien-Jen

2012-10-01

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious public health problem because of its worldwide prevalence and potential to cause adverse consequences. The Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV) study carried out in Taiwan was used to investigate the natural history of chronic hepatitis B. The REVEAL-HBV study has established an HBV viral load paradigm in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Serum HBV DNA level has been shown to be significantly and independently associated with incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis and liver-related mortality across a biological gradient. It is also a major predictor of HBsAg seroclearance. Genetic features including HBV genotype and basal core promoter A1762T/G1764A mutant, and precore G1896A mutant were documented as predictors of HCC risk. Inactive HBV carriers still had an increased risk on HCC development and liver-related mortality compared with HBsAg -seronegatives. Nomograms focusing on facilitating risk communication between patients and clinicians were developed incorporating non-invasive clinical parameters to predict long-term HCC risk. These will hopefully contribute to evidence-based decisions in the clinical management of CHB patients. A somewhat provocative and novel finding from the REVEAL-HBV study is the association of chronic HBV infection in active replication with an increased pancreatic cancer risk especially in women less than 50 years old. This finding will hopefully spur further research in this area seeking confirmatory evidence. Finally, we hope that the REVEAL-HBV study will continue to be a source of data to answer other important questions in chronic hepatitis B research going forward. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Relationship of Echocardiographic Z Scores Adjusted for Body Surface Area to Age, Sex, Race, and Ethnicity: The Pediatric Heart Network Normal Echocardiogram Database.

PubMed

Lopez, Leo; Colan, Steven; Stylianou, Mario; Granger, Suzanne; Trachtenberg, Felicia; Frommelt, Peter; Pearson, Gail; Camarda, Joseph; Cnota, James; Cohen, Meryl; Dragulescu, Andreea; Frommelt, Michele; Garuba, Olukayode; Johnson, Tiffanie; Lai, Wyman; Mahgerefteh, Joseph; Pignatelli, Ricardo; Prakash, Ashwin; Sachdeva, Ritu; Soriano, Brian; Soslow, Jonathan; Spurney, Christopher; Srivastava, Shubhika; Taylor, Carolyn; Thankavel, Poonam; van der Velde, Mary; Minich, LuAnn

2017-11-01

Published nomograms of pediatric echocardiographic measurements are limited by insufficient sample size to assess the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Variable methodologies have resulted in a wide range of Z scores for a single measurement. This multicenter study sought to determine Z scores for common measurements adjusted for body surface area (BSA) and stratified by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Data collected from healthy nonobese children ≤18 years of age at 19 centers with a normal echocardiogram included age, sex, race, ethnicity, height, weight, echocardiographic images, and measurements performed at the Core Laboratory. Z score models involved indexed parameters (X/BSA α ) that were normally distributed without residual dependence on BSA. The models were tested for the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Raw measurements from models with and without these effects were compared, and <5% difference was considered clinically insignificant because interobserver variability for echocardiographic measurements are reported as ≥5% difference. Of the 3566 subjects, 90% had measurable images. Appropriate BSA transformations (BSA α ) were selected for each measurement. Multivariable regression revealed statistically significant effects by age, sex, race, and ethnicity for all outcomes, but all effects were clinically insignificant based on comparisons of models with and without the effects, resulting in Z scores independent of age, sex, race, and ethnicity for each measurement. Echocardiographic Z scores based on BSA were derived from a large, diverse, and healthy North American population. Age, sex, race, and ethnicity have small effects on the Z scores that are statistically significant but not clinically important. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The association of inflammatory markers and periodontal indexes with the risk of coronary heart disease in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Chen, Ling; Wei, Bin; Xu, Liang; Wu, Yun

2018-01-01

The present study was designed to investigate the association of four inflammatory markers and five periodontal indexes with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in 131 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). All subjects were inpatients, including 63 T2DM patients with comorbid CHD ("cases") and 68 T2DM patients without CHD ("controls"). The diagnosis of CHD is based on coronary angiography. Peripheral blood concentrations of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (11.51 vs. 10.39 mg/L), leptin (24.60 vs. 21.22 ng/L) and visfatin (65.92 vs. 57.62 ng/L) were significantly higher in cases than in controls (P = .033, 0.041 and 0.041, respectively). The levels of three periodontal indexes - probing pocket depth, attachment loss (AL) and sulcus bleeding index, were significantly higher in cases than in controls, especially for periodontal AL (3.60 mm vs. 3.29 mm, P = .002). A Forward logistic regression was performed for selection, and specifically hs-CRP, leptin, visfatin and periodontal AL were found to be associated with the significant risk of CHD (odds ratio: 1.16, 1.07, 1.03 and 2.04; P = .025, .022, .022 and .010, respectively). Importantly, the benefits of inflammatory markers and periodontal indexes over basic risk factors were significant (likelihood ratio test) and obvious (decision curve analysis). A nomogram was delineated based on significant variables, and it had good accuracy (C-index: 0.801, P < .001). Our findings support the significant contribution of inflammatory markers and periodontal indexes to the pathogenesis of CHD in T2DM. Specifically, hs-CRP, leptin, visfatin and periodontal AL were identified as significant contributors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A prediction tool incorporating the biomarker S-100B for patient selection for completion lymph node dissection in stage III melanoma.

PubMed

Damude, S; Wevers, K P; Murali, R; Kruijff, S; Hoekstra, H J; Bastiaannet, E

2017-09-01

Completion lymph node dissection (CLND) in sentinel node (SN)-positive melanoma patients is accompanied with morbidity, while about 80% yield no additional metastases in non-sentinel nodes (NSNs). A prediction tool for NSN involvement could be of assistance in patient selection for CLND. This study investigated which parameters predict NSN-positivity, and whether the biomarker S-100B improves the accuracy of a prediction model. Recorded clinicopathologic factors were tested for their association with NSN-positivity in 110 SN-positive patients who underwent CLND. A prediction model was developed with multivariable logistic regression, incorporating all predictive factors. Five models were compared for their predictive power by calculating the Area Under the Curve (AUC). A weighted risk score, 'S-100B Non-Sentinel Node Risk Score' (SN-SNORS), was derived for the model with the highest AUC. Besides, a nomogram was developed as visual representation. NSN-positivity was present in 24 (21.8%) patients. Sex, ulceration, number of harvested SNs, number of positive SNs, and S-100B value were independently associated with NSN-positivity. The AUC for the model including all these factors was 0.78 (95%CI 0.69-0.88). SN-SNORS was the sum of scores for the five parameters. Scores of ≤9.5, 10-11.5, and ≥12 were associated with low (0%), intermediate (21.0%) and high (43.2%) risk of NSN involvement. A prediction tool based on five parameters, including the biomarker S-100B, showed accurate risk stratification for NSN-involvement in SN-positive melanoma patients. If validated in future studies, this tool could help to identify patients with low risk for NSN-involvement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Identification of Autophagy-Related Genes and Their Regulatory miRNAs Associated with Celiac Disease in Children.

PubMed

Comincini, Sergio; Manai, Federico; Meazza, Cristina; Pagani, Sara; Martinelli, Carolina; Pasqua, Noemi; Pelizzo, Gloria; Biggiogera, Marco; Bozzola, Mauro

2017-02-12

Celiac disease (CD) is a severe genetic autoimmune disorder, affecting about one in 100 people, where the ingestion of gluten leads to damage in the small intestine. Diagnosing CD is quite complex and requires blood tests and intestinal biopsy examinations. Controversy exists regarding making the diagnosis without biopsy, due to the large spectrum of manifesting symptoms; furthermore, small-intestinal gastroscopy examinations have a relatively complex management in the pediatric population. To identify novel molecular markers useful to increase the sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of pediatric CD patients, the expression levels of two key autophagy executor genes ( ATG7 and BECN1 ) and their regulatory validated miRNAs (miR-17 and miR-30a, respectively) were analyzed by relative quantitative real-time-PCR on a cohort of confirmed CD patients compared to age-related controls. Among the investigated targets, the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test and ROC analysis indicated the highest significant association of BECN1 with CD status in the blood, while in intestinal biopsies, all of the investigated sequences were positively associated with CD diagnosis. Nomogram-based analysis showed nearly opposite expression trends in blood compared to intestine tissue, while hierarchical clustering dendrograms enabled identifying CD and control subgroups based on specific genes and miRNA expression signatures. Next, using an established in vitro approach, through digested gliadin administration in Caco-2 cells, we also highlighted that the modulation of miR-17 endogenous levels using enriched exosomes increased the intracellular autophagosome content, thereby altering the autophagic status. Altogether, these results highlighted novel molecular markers that might be useful to increase the accuracy in CD diagnosis and in molecular-based stratification of the patients, further reinforcing the functional involvement of the regulation of the autophagy process within a digestive and autoimmune-related disorder as CD.

Safety and efficacy of femtosecond laser-assisted arcuate keratotomy to treat irregular astigmatism after penetrating keratoplasty.

PubMed

Fadlallah, Ali; Mehanna, Chadi; Saragoussi, Jean-Jacques; Chelala, Elias; Amari, Belkacem; Legeais, Jean-Marc

2015-06-01

To determine the refractive efficacy, predictability, stability, and complication rate of Intralase femtosecond laser-assisted astigmatic keratotomy (AK) for irregular astigmatism after penetrating keratoplasty (PKP). Ophthalmology Department, Hôtel-Dieu, Paris, France. Retrospective case series. Femtosecond laser-assisted AK was performed to treat high irregular astigmatism (>5.0 diopters [D]) after PKP. The uncorrected (UDVA) and corrected (CDVA) distance visual acuities, manifest refraction, vector analysis, and complications were evaluated. The study evaluated 62 eyes of 57 patients over a mean follow-up of 28 months ± 3.5 (SD). Preoperatively, the mean CDVA was 0.51 ± 0.26 logMAR and the mean UDVA was 0.98 ± 0.24 logMAR; 6 months postoperatively, the mean CDVA and UDVA improved to 0.40 ± 0.22 logMAR and 0.60 ± 0.2 logMAR, respectively (both P < .01). The mean preoperative absolute astigmatism was 7.1 ± 1.72 D; 6 months postoperatively, the mean refractive astigmatism was 2.6 ± 2.4 D (P < .001). The UDVA, CDVA, and astigmatism remained stable up to the end of follow-up. The efficacy index was 0.81 at 6 months and 0.67 at 2 years. There were 2 cases of microperforation, 3 cases of infectious keratitis, 3 graft rejection episodes, and 1 case of endophthalmitis. Overcorrection occurred in 12 eyes. Femtosecond laser-assisted AK was effective in reducing irregular astigmatism after PKP. Predictability of astigmatism correction is variable over time with a decrease in the efficacy index 2 years postoperatively. Refinement of the treatment nomogram for femtosecond laser-assisted AK for high astigmatism after PKP remains a major issue. No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discoveries and application of prostate-specific antigen, and some proposals to optimize prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Tokudome, Shinkan; Ando, Ryosuke; Koda, Yoshiro

2016-01-01

The discoveries and application of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) have been much appreciated because PSA-based screening has saved millions of lives of prostate cancer (PCa) patients. Historically speaking, Flocks et al first identified antigenic properties in prostate tissue in 1960. Then, Barnes et al detected immunologic characteristics in prostatic fluid in 1963. Hara et al characterized γ-semino-protein in semen in 1966, and it has been proven to be identical to PSA. Subsequently, Ablin et al independently reported the presence of precipitation antigens in the prostate in 1970. Wang et al purified the PSA in 1979, and Kuriyama et al first applied an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for PSA in 1980. However, the positive predictive value with a cutoff figure of 4.0 ng/mL appeared substantially low (∼30%). There are overdiagnoses and overtreatments for latent/low-risk PCa. Controversies exist in the PCa mortality-reducing effects of PSA screening between the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. For optimizing PCa screening, PSA-related items may require the following: 1) adjustment of the cutoff values according to age, as well as setting limits to age and screening intervals; 2) improving test performance using doubling time, density, and ratio of free: total PSA; and 3) fostering active surveillance for low-risk PCa with monitoring by PSA value. Other items needing consideration may include the following: 1) examinations of cell proliferation and cell cycle markers in biopsy specimens; 2) independent quantification of Gleason grading; 3) developing ethnicity-specific staging nomograms based on tumor stage, PSA value, and Gleason score; 4) delineation of the natural history; 5) revisiting the significance of the androgen/testosterone hypothesis; and 6) devoting special attention to individuals with a certain genetic predisposition. Finally, considering the uncertainty that exists in medicine, risk communication on PSA-based screening is indeed due.

[Effect of hospital policies on patient mobility: Siennese experience].

PubMed

Messina, G G; Addari, P; Macchi, C; Nante, N

2005-01-01

The Italian National Health Service (S.S.N.), adopted in 1978 (Law n 833) and based on Beveridge's model, emphasises the citizens freedom to choose and the equal opportunity in accessing health care structures. Local Health Authorities--L.H.A. (U.S.L.--Unità Sanitarie Locali) become owners of almost all the structures in their territories and directly responsible for the satisfaction of all residents health needs. The former hospitals' network, based on independent first, second and third level public hospitals, in potential competition, was dismantled. Hospitals' financing, the main economic role of the S.S.N., was based on the documented running expenses: therefore the hospital interest to attract patients diminished and expenses increased in a uncontrolled way. In 1992, the Italian Government, (re)introduced (Law n 502) the quasi-market administered competition between Italian hospitals, making the major ones independent (Aziende Ospedaliere--A.O.) from the L.H.A. Hospital income from then is based on DRGs; the L.H.A. (and hospitals) leadership is now entrusted to managers and not politicians. We describe now how these changes were experienced by our hospital (A.O. Senese), placed in Southern Tuscany, Italy. We elaborated hospitalisation data regarding residents in the province of Siena (252,000 inhabitants) and activity data regarding its main hospital (A.O. Senese, 1200 beds, 47,000 admissions/year). Using the Gandy's Nomogram, we show the variation of patients mobility from 1988 to 1999. Our survey demonstrates that the Italian hospital system answers well enough to the legislative regulations: following the Law 833/1978 our hospital diminished its ability to attract patients from other areas; at the same time migrations of hospitals patients from Siena increased. Following the Law 502/1992, the power of attraction of our hospital is increased. Nevertheless the flow of escape continued to increase. It appears that to discourage the attraction power means to promote the loss of perceived quality and that it is difficult to correct such effects.

Thoracic aorta 3D hemodynamics in pediatric and young adult patients with bicuspid aortic valve.

PubMed

Allen, Bradley D; van Ooij, Pim; Barker, Alex J; Carr, Maria; Gabbour, Maya; Schnell, Susanne; Jarvis, Kelly B; Carr, James C; Markl, Michael; Rigsby, Cynthia; Robinson, Joshua D

2015-10-01

To evaluate the 3D hemodynamics in the thoracic aorta of pediatric and young adult bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) patients. 4D flow MRI was performed in 30 pediatric and young adult BAV patients (age: 13.9 ± 4.4 (range: [3.4, 20.7]) years old, M:F = 17:13) as part of this Institutional Review Board-approved study. Nomogram-based aortic root Z-scores were calculated to assess aortic dilatation and degree of aortic stenosis (AS) severity was assessed on MRI. Data analysis included calculation of time-averaged systolic 3D wall shear stress (WSSsys ) along the entire aorta wall, and regional quantification of maximum and mean WSSsys and peak systolic velocity (velsys ) in the ascending aorta (AAo), arch, and descending aorta (DAo). The 4D flow MRI AAo velsys was also compared with echocardiography peak velocity measurements. There was a positive correlation with both mean and max AAo WSSsys and peak AAo velsys (mean: r = 0.84, P < 0.001, max: r = 0.94, P < 0.001) and AS (mean: rS  = 0.43, P = 0.02, max: rS  = 0.70, P < 0.001). AAo peak velocity was significantly higher when measured with echo compared with 4D flow MRI (2.1 ± 0.98 m/s versus 1.27 ± 0.49 m/s, P < 0.001). In pediatric and young adult patients with BAV, AS and peak ascending aorta velocity are associated with increased AAo WSS, while aortic dilation, age, and body surface area do not significantly impact AAo hemodynamics. Prospective studies are required to establish the role of WSS as a risk-stratification tool in these patients. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The association of eight potentially functional polymorphisms in five adrenergic receptor-encoding genes with myocardial infarction risk in Han Chinese.

PubMed

Xia, Kun; Ding, Rongjing; Zhang, Zhiyong; Li, Weiming; Shang, Xiaoming; Yang, Xinchun; Wang, Lefeng; Zhang, Qi

2017-08-15

Adrenergic receptors play a key role in activating the sympathetic nervous system, which often accompanies with the development of myocardial infarction (MI). Here, we aimed to test the association of eight potentially functional polymorphisms in five adrenergic receptor-encoding genes with MI risk. Genotypes were available for 717 MI patients and 612 controls. There were no detectable deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium for all study polymorphisms. Allele frequencies differed remarkably for ADRA2B D/I (P<0.001), ADRB1 Ser49Gly (P=0.002), ADRB2 Gln27Glu (P=0.005), and ADRB3 Trp64Arg (P<0.001) polymorphisms, even after the Bonferroni correction. Systolic blood pressure was significantly lower in ADRA2B II genotype carriers than in the DD genotype carriers (P=0.006), while plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was significantly higher in patients carrying ADRA2B I allele and ADRB1 49Ser allele than in patients with the DD genotype and 49Gly/49Gly genotype, respectively (P=0.018 and 0.033). Overall best interaction model consisted of ADRA2B D/I, ADRB1 Ser49Gly, dyslipidemia and hypertension, with the highest testing accuracy of 0.627 and the maximal 10-fold cross-validation consistency (P=0.017). Finally, a nomogram was depicted based on four significant polymorphisms and metabolic risk factors, and it had a better predictive utility and was internally validated with a discrimination C-index of 0.723 (P<0.001). Altogether, we identified two polymorphisms, ADRA2B D/I and ADRB1 Ser49Arg, which not only altered genetic susceptibility to MI, but also impacted on blood pressure and plasma lipid changes, and their combination with metabolic risk factors constituted the overall best interaction model. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

External validation of the Garvan nomograms for predicting absolute fracture risk: the Tromsø study.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V; Emaus, Nina

2014-01-01

Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction.

A prospective observational study of a novel 2-phase infusion protocol for the administration of acetylcysteine in paracetamol poisoning.

PubMed

Isbister, Geoffrey K; Downes, Michael A; Mcnamara, Kylie; Berling, Ingrid; Whyte, Ian M; Page, Colin B

2016-01-01

The current 3-phase acetylcysteine infusion for paracetamol poisoning delivers half the dose over 15-60 min and frequently results in adverse reactions. We aimed to determine adverse reaction frequency with a modified 2-phase infusion protocol with a longer initial infusion. A prospective observational study of a modified 2-phase acetylcysteine protocol was undertaken at two hospitals. Acetylcysteine was commenced on admission and ceased if paracetamol concentrations were low-risk (below the nomogram line). The first infusion was 200 mg/kg over 4-9 h based on ingestion time or 4 h for staggered/chronic ingestions. The second infusion was 100 mg/kg over 16 h. Pre-defined outcomes were frequency of adverse reactions (systemic hypersensitivity reactions or gastrointestinal); proportion with alanine transaminase (ALT) > 1000 U/L or abnormal ALT. 654 paracetamol poisonings were treated with the new protocol; median age 29 y (15-98 y); 453 females; 576 acute and 78 staggered/chronic ingestions. In 420 (64%) acetylcysteine was stopped for low-risk paracetamol concentrations. An adverse reaction occurred in 229/654 admissions (35%; 95% CI: 31-39%): 173 (26.5%; 95% CI: 23-30%) only gastrointestinal, 50 (8%; 95% CI: 6-10%) skin only systemic hypersensitivity reactions; and three severe anaphylaxis (0.5%; 95% CI: 0.1-1.5%; all hypotension). Adverse reactions occurred in 111/231 (48%) receiving full treatment compared to 116/420 (28%) in whom the infusion was stopped early (absolute difference 20%; 95% CI: 13-28%; p < 0.0001). In 200 overdoses < 10 g, one had toxic paracetamol concentrations, but 53 developed reactions. Sixteen patients had an ALT > 1000 U/L and 24 an abnormal ALT attributable to paracetamol; all but one had treatment commenced >12 h post-ingestion. A 2-phase acetylcysteine infusion protocol results in a fewer reactions in patients with toxic paracetamol concentrations, but is not justified in patients with low-risk paracetamol concentrations.

Impact of reducing the threshold for acetylcysteine treatment in acute paracetamol poisoning: the recent United Kingdom experience.

PubMed

Bateman, D N; Dear, J W; Carroll, R; Pettie, J; Yamamoto, T; Elamin, M E M O; Peart, L; Dow, M; Coyle, J; Gray, A; Dargan, P I; Wood, D M; Eddleston, M; Thomas, S H L

2014-01-01

On 3 September 2012, the licensed indication for acetylcysteine was changed in the United Kingdom (UK) so that all patients with a plasma paracetamol concentration above a "100 mg/L" (4 h post ingestion) nomogram treatment line after an acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose should be treated. This is a lower threshold than that used in the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Here we report the impact of this change in the UK on the management of patients with acute overdose in different paracetamol concentration ranges. This is a cohort study, consisting of a retrospective analysis conducted on prospectively collected audit data in three UK hospitals. Following appropriate ethical and data protection authority approval, data for patients presenting within 24 h of an acute timed single paracetamol overdose were extracted. Numbers of admissions and use of antidote in relation to different paracetamol concentration bands (< 100 mg/L; 100-149 mg/L; 150-199 mg/L; and ≥ 200 mg/L at 4 h) were analyzed for one-year periods before and after the change. Comparing the year before with the year after the change, there was no change in the numbers of patients presenting to hospital within 24 h of acute timed paracetamol overdose (1246 before and 1251 after), but more patients were admitted (759 before and 849 after) and treated with acetylcysteine (389 before and 539 after). Of the 150 additional patients treated with acetylcysteine in the year following the change, 114 (76%, 95% CI: 68.4-82.6) were in the 100-149 group and 9 (6.0%, 95% CI: 2.8-11.1) in the 150-199 group. Changes to national guidelines for managing paracetamol poisoning in the UK have increased the numbers of patients with acute overdose treated with acetylcysteine, with most additional treatments occurring in patients in the 100-149 mg/L dose range, a group at low risk of hepatotoxicity and higher risk of adverse reactions.

Tertiary Gleason patterns and biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy: proposal for a modified Gleason scoring system.

PubMed

Trock, Bruce J; Guo, Charles C; Gonzalgo, Mark L; Magheli, Ahmed; Loeb, Stacy; Epstein, Jonathan I

2009-10-01

We investigated the relationship between the tertiary Gleason component in radical prostatectomy specimens and biochemical recurrence in what is to our knowledge the largest single institution cohort to date. We evaluated data on 3,230 men who underwent radical prostatectomy at our institution from 2000 to 2005. Tertiary Gleason component was defined as Gleason grade pattern 4 or greater for Gleason score 6 and Gleason grade pattern 5 for Gleason score 7 or 8. Biochemical recurrence curves for cancer with tertiary Gleason component were intermediate between those of cancer without a tertiary Gleason component in the same Gleason score category and cancer in the next higher Gleason score category. The only exception was that Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7 with a tertiary Gleason component behaved like Gleason score 8. The tertiary Gleason component independently predicted recurrence when factoring in radical prostatectomy Gleason score, radical prostatectomy stage and prostate specific antigen (HR 1.45, p = 0.029). Furthermore, the magnitude of the tertiary Gleason component effect on recurrence did not differ by Gleason score category (p = 0.593). Although the tertiary Gleason component is frequently included in pathology reports, it is routinely omitted in other situations, such as predictive nomograms, research studies and patient counseling. The current study adds to a growing body of evidence highlighting the importance of the tertiary Gleason component in radical prostatectomy specimens. Accordingly consideration should be given to a modified radical prostatectomy Gleason scoring system that incorporates tertiary Gleason component in intuitive fashion, including Gleason score 6, 6.5 (Gleason score 6 with tertiary Gleason component), 7 (Gleason score 3 + 4 = 7), 7.25 (Gleason score 3 + 4 = 7 with tertiary Gleason component), 7.5 (Gleason score 4 + 3), 8 (Gleason score 4 + 3 with tertiary Gleason component or Gleason score 8), 8.5 (Gleason score 8 with tertiary Gleason component), 9 (Gleason score 4 + 5 or 5 + 4) and 10.